{
    "National DEWS": {
        "DEWS_2023": {
            "January_2023.pdf": "NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN JANUARY 2023 1.0 DROUGHT SITUATION OVERVIEW The drought situation remains critical in 22 of the 23 ASAL counties due to the late onset and poor performance of the much-anticipated October to December 2022 short rains, coupled with four previous consecutive failed rainfall seasons. Currently, nine arid and semi-arid (ASAL) counties namely; Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Isiolo, Kitui and Kajiado are in Alarm drought phase while 13 counties are in Alert drought phase. These include Garissa, Lamu, Narok, Tana River, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Nyeri and Kwale. Only Embu county is currently classified in Normal drought phase. Taita Taveta, Kwale, Garissa and Tana River improved from Alarm to Alert phase due to light showers received during the last week of December. Conversely, the drought situation in Baringo and West Pokot counties deteriorated from Normal to Alert drought phase. High rates of children at risk of malnutrition were noted in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Baringo and Isiolo counties. This is mostly attributed to the continued decrease in milk production and consumption at household level, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. The long rains assessment conducted in July 2022 had projected that 4.35 million people would require relief assistance Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification December 2022 by December. A multi-agency assessment of the 2022 short rains season is ongoing to ascertain its impact on food security. The assessment team comprises representatives from Government departments, UN agencies and NGOs. 1.1 DROUGHT OBSERVED INDICATORS 1.1.1 December Rainfall Performance Analysis of the December 2022 rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs experienced depressed rainfall. The Pastoral North East, South East Marginal Agriculture, Coast Marginal Agriculture and Pastoral North West livelihood clusters received between 0 to 75 of the December Long Term Mean (LTM). The Pastoral North East counties including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received between 50 to 75 of the December LTM. However, parts of Garissa and Tana River counties received very minimal rainfall - 10mm. including Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received depressed rainfall, with some parts recording between 26mm to 75 mm of rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu - received inadequate rainfall. The agropastoral cluster including Baringo, Narok and Figure 2: December 2022 Rainfall Performance West Pokot, received notable amount of rainfall between 76mm to 125mm of rainfall. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for January 2023 As illustrated in Figure 3, the rainfall outlook for January forecasts occassional rainfall in lower parts of the ASALs are, especially coastal marginal agrilture areas including Kilifi, Lamu, Taita Taveta and Kwale counties. including Kitui, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi and Meru counties are forecasted to receive light showers while agropastoral counties of Narok and Kajiado are forecasted to receive occassional rainfall. The upper parts of the ASALs, including Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Figure 3: January 2023 rainfall forecast. Garissa) and Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are expected to experience main ly sunny and dry conditions. 1.2 VEGETATION CONDITION December 2022 recorded alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across ASAL counties compared to the previous month (November 2022). The deterioration is attributed to poor performance of the October to December short rains. Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2021 and December 2022. Figure 4: Comparison of Vegetation Condition (VCI) in December 2021 and December 2022. Three counties - Marsabit, Wajir and Isiolo - recorded extreme vegetation deficit while three others - Mandera, Samburu and Kwale recorded severe deficit. 12 counties including Turkana, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Tana River have moderate vegetation deficit, hence need for close monitoring and contingency planning. Five counties - Baringo, Embu, Makueni, Lamu and Narok - recorded Normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of December 2022 is provided in Table 13 while Table 1 shows the situation in each county disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in December 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No.) Extreme (3) (17) Marsabit Mandera (East, South) Wajir Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, Saku, North Horr) Isiolo Wajir (East, Eldas, North, South, Tarbaj, West) Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South) Nyeri (Township), Kilifi (South) Severe (3) (17) vegetation Mandera Mandera (Banissa, Lafey, North, West) deficit Samburu Samburu (East) Kwale Garissa (Balambala, Dujis) Kajiado (Central, North) Laikipia (North) West Pokot (Kacheliba) Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Moderate (12) (41) vegetation Turkana Baringo (Tiaty) deficit Garissa Turkana (East, Loima, North, South, West) Kajiado Samburu (North, West) Laikipia Garissa (Daadab) Tharaka Nithi Tana River (Bura, Galole) West Pokot Kajiado (East, South, West) Kitui Laikipia (East,) Meru Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Nyeri West Pokot (Sigor) Kilifi Kitui (East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North) Taita Taveta Makueni (Kilome) Tana River Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti) Nyeri (Kieni, Othaya, Tetu) Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Kilifi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Narok (East, South) Normal (5) (34) vegetation Baringo Baringo (Eldama, Mogotio, North, South) greenness Embu Turkana (Central) Makueni Garissa (Fafi, Ijara) Lamu Tana River (Garsen) Narok Laikipia (West) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Kitui (Central, Mwingi West, Rural, South, West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Mbooni) Meru (Buuri, Tigania East, Tigania West) Kwale (Msambweni) Lamu (East, West) Narok (North, West) Vegetation (5) greenness Baringo (Central) Above normal Embu (Mbeere North) Makueni (Makueni) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris) 1.3 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most ASAL counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The condition was below normal, with no improvement realised when compared with the previous month. The pasture and browse is not expected to last long due to high concentration of livestock in grazing areas. The condition of pasture and browse deteriorated to poor in Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Kajiado and Kwale counties. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in December 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Kilifi Lamu Isiolo Baringo Makueni Garissa Kitui Makueni Mandera Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Kilifi Mandera Meru Narok Kitui Marsabit Samburu Turkana Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Lamu Turkana Tana River Meru Wajir Embu Samburu West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Tana River Kwale West Pokot Kajiado Kwale 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition ranged from poor to fair in most ASAL counties except Lamu, Makueni and Taita Taveta counties which reported good body condition for cattle as shown in Table 3. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3: Livestock body condition in December 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Lamu Isiolo Baringo Lamu Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Garissa Taita Taveta Mandera Kitui Marsabit Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Laikipia Turkana Kitui Turkana Meru Wajir Laikipia Wajir Narok Meru Kajiado Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Tana River West Pokot West Pokot Embu Embu Kwale Kajiado Nyeri Kwale 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of December remained stable in most of the counties compared to November. Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi showed an improving milk production trend. The current milk production status in 21 of the 23 counties is below average compared to normal years. Table 4: Milk production trends in December 2022 Milk Tharaka Garissa Baringo Garissa Makueni Baringo production Nithi Embu Isiolo Marsabit Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Taita Taveta Meru Kajiado Kilifi Wajir Narok Kilifi Kitui Embu West Pokot Kitui Kwale Laikipia Lamu Lamu Nyeri Mandera Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Narok NB: Turkana had zero readings. 1.3.4 Cattle prices Cattle prices in majority of the counties remained stable in December compared to the previous month, with majority of the counties continuing to record below normal prices while four counties reported a worsening trend. Isiolo, Kwale, Lamu, and Mandera counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in December 2022 Cattle Tana River West Baringo Baringo Garissa Isiolo prices Pokot Isiolo Embu Kilifi Kwale Lamu Kajiado Kajiado Marsabit Lamu Embu Kilifi Kitui Narok Mandera Garissa Kwale Laikipia Taita Taveta Kitui Laikipia Makueni Turkana Makueni Meru Wajir Meru Tana River Narok Tharaka Nyeri Nithi Samburu West Pokot 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in ASAL counties were generally poor, with most ASAL counties recording below long term average prices. However, most counties recorded an improving trend compared to November as result of regeneration of pasture and browse as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6: Goat prices in December 2022 Goat Kajiado Embu Baringo Embu Turkana Kwale prices Kilifi Kitui Garissa Isiolo Wajir Laikipia Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Narok Lamu Narok Mandera Kilifi Mandera Makueni West Pokot Marsabit Kitui Marsabit Samburu Meru Laikipia Garissa Tana River Nyeri Lamu Baringo Taita Taveta Makueni Tharaka Nithi Meru Turkana Nyeri Wajir Samburu Tharaka 1.4 CROP PRODUCTION Coast Marginal Agriculture counties: The crop condition in Kilifi County remained poor due to moisture stress, with minimal to no harvest expected as most of the crop is wilting coupled with Fall Army Warm infestation. There was also delayed and poor temporal rainfall distribution, which is likely to lead to crop failure. Farmers in some areas of Kwale County were weeding in December having planted earlier and received some rains. However, those in the livestock farming livelihood zone were replanting owing to loss of seeds following a dry spell immediately after planting. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: The area planted in Kitui County was lower than the long term average due to late onset of the short rains and forecasted below normal rainfall. However, majority of crops were at knee heightflowering stage and in fair condition. Weeding for the season was also ongoing across the livelihood zones. In both the mixed farming and marginal Mixed farming livelihood zones of Makueni County, crops were at different stages, with maize ranging from knee-height to tasseling stage. Cases of fall army worm infestation were reported across all livelihood zone. In some areas, crops germinated and dried up following persistent drought and aridity while in some places there was completely no onset of the short rains. In Tharaka Nithi County, weeding and pest control by spraying was ongoing. About 90 of the farmers had planted considering the county relies on the short rains for food production. Crops were at four leaves development stage for legumes and knee height for cereal crops and in good condition. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges, particularly those related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. 1.4.1 Maize prices In Tana River, West Pokot and Makueni counties, the price of maize was at a worsening trend during the month under review while the remaining countie were stable and improving trend compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The maize prices were above long term average. Table 7: Maize prices in December 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Lamu Nyeri Baringo Tana River prices Embu Meru Embu West Pokot Garissa Marsabit Garissa Makueni Isiolo Lamu Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Kajiado Kilifi Kilifi Kitui Kitui Laikipia Mandera Makueni Narok Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Meru Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Wajir 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households is currently above long term average in 16 counties. However, the trend is generally improving compared to the previous month. Distances in arid counties ranged between 3.3 and 16.2 kilometres, with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances. Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 2.2 and 6.2 kilometres, with Nyeri (Kieni) recording the lowest and Kajiado the highest. Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta and Tana River counties showed an improving trend as shown in Table 8. Table 8: Distance from households to main water sources in December 2022 Distance Isiolo Kitui Baringo Embu Baringo Tharaka Nithi from Kajiado Meru Embu Kilifi Isiolo West Pokot househo Kilifi Garissa Kitui Kajiado Mandera lds to Kwale Narok Lamu Kwale Marsabit main Laikipia Samburu Makueni Laikipia Garissa water Lamu Meru Turkana sources Makueni Narok Wajir Nyeri Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above long term average and on an improving trend in most ASAL counties compared to the previous month. However, trekking distances in Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Mandera and Marsabit counties are on a worsening trend due to poor performance of short rains seasons. The average trekking distance in arid counties ranged between 5 and 33.1 kilometres, with Baringo recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest. The average trekking distance in semi- arid counties ranged between 3.2 and 8.1 kilometres, with Nyeri recording the lowest and Taita Taveta highest. Table 9 shows the trend of distances for livestock from grazing areas to water main source. Table 9: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources in December 2022 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Embu Kajiado Baringo Baringo Garissa Embu from Isiolo Kitui Garissa Isiolo Taita Taveta Meru livestock Kilifi Kwale Narok Kajiado Turkana Tharaka grazing area Laikipia Samburu Kilifi Wajir Nithi to main Lamu Tana River Kitui West Pokot water Makueni Kwale Mandera sources Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Marsabit Lamu Meru Makueni Nyeri Narok Taita Nyeri Taveta Samburu Tharaka Tana River Pokot 1.6 TERMS OF TRADE Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long term average. The terms of trade are stable compared to the previous (November). Table 10: Terms of Trade in December 2022 Terms of Isiolo Narok Baringo Baringo Kwale trade Embu Garissa Tana River (ToT) Garissa Mandera Kitui Nyeri Mandera Marsabit Meru Tharaka Kilifi Nithi Laikipia Wajir Samburu Lamu Taita Taveta Narok Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Wajir Turkana West Pokot Embu Kajiado Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Turkana Makueni Tana River Meru Nyeri Isiolo Lamu Taita Isiolo Taveta 1.7 HEALTH AND NUTRITION High rates of children at risk of malnutrition were noted in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Baringo and Isiolo counties. In addition, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Taita Taveta, Turkana and West-Pokot recorded Middle-Upper-Arm-Circumference (MUAC) measurement below long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued decrease in milk production and consumption at household level, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok and Nyeri counties recorded a worsening in trend during the month under review. Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across ASAL counties based on MUAC measurement. Table 11: Children at risk of malnutrition in December 2022 Baringo Embu Kilifi Embu Baringo Kilifi Nyeri Kwale Kitui Kitui Garissa Laikipia MUAC Kajiado Meru Laikipia Marsabit Kajiado Lamu Tharaka Samburu Lamu Tana River Mandera Nithi Taita West Pokot Meru Isiolo Taveta Tharaka- Narok Wajir Turkana Nithi Nyeri Mandera West- Wajir Tana River Pokot Kwale Marsabit Makueni Garissa Isiolo Taita- Taveta 2.0 DROUGHT PHASE CLASSIFICATION On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties including Isiolo, Kitui, Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are in Alarm drought phase. Another 13 counties - Garissa, Lamu, Narok, Tana River, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi Kwale Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Taita Taveta, West Pokot and Nyeri - are in Alert drought phase, while Embu is in Normal drought phase. During the month under review, eight (8) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while twelve (12) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12 sums up the trend in drought phase classification as at the end of December 2022. Table 12: Drought phase classification in December 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu Alert Garissa Kwale Baringo Lamu Laikipia Narok Meru Tana River Taita Taveta Makueni West Pokot Alarm Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Emergency - - - Recovery - - - 3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households that are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. 2. Livestock sector: Provision of livestock feeds and supplements; and treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3. Water sector: Support water trucking; rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of fuel subsidies to motorised boreholes; and procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. 4. Health and nutrition sector: Support towards hygiene and sanitation promotion; provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF) and Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 5. Education sector: Enhanced hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 6. Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter community peace dialogues and resource use agreements; and coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. 7. Coordination: Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th December 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category month as month as (3-month) at 27th at 25th 50 Vegetation greenness Nov 2022 Dec above normal 2022 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation 10 - 20 Severe vegetation 10 Extreme vegetation BARINGO County 56.99 37.83 The entire county and four sub-counties recorded Normal Central 66.98 53.62 vegetation greenness. However, this was a worsening trend compared to November. Eldama 66.98 44.62 Mogotio 54.37 37.22 North 56.93 38.15 South 57.98 39.26 Tiaty 54.52 33.46 MANDERA County 15.64 11.79 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation Banissa 17.96 17.84 condition at severe vegetation deficit. Mandera South and M East 10 5.59 Mandera East worsened to extreme vegetation deficit in Lafey 15.4 10.66 December. M North 17.84 16.16 M South 11.89 7.22 M West 17.66 10.93 TURKANA County 34.86 25.32 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation T Central 42.83 36.64 greenness though still maintained at moderate vegetation T. East 37.27 24.19 deficit T. Loima 36.87 26.77 T. North 26.54 20.54 T. South 41.84 28.21 T. West 35.99 25.57 MARSABIT County 12.5 8.79 The county and all sub counties worsened to extreme Laisaimis 11.77 8.26 vegetation deficit in December. Moyale 11.43 6.8 N. Horr 13.19 9.76 Saku 12.46 5.75 WAJIR County 13.84 7.3 The county and all sub counties worsened to extreme W East 14.83 7.41 vegetation deficit in December. W. Eldas 9.33 3.81 W. North 19.08 8.84 W. South 12.89 8.53 W. Tarbaj 16.9 8.75 W West 9.69 3 SAMBURU County 18.7 15.38 The county maintained remained at severe vegetation S East 9.31 11.31 deficit during the month under review. Samburu West S. North 23.26 16.45 worsened to moderate vegetation deficit from normal S. West 41.47 28.41 vegetation greenness. GARISSA County 17.59 27.59 The county experienced an improvement in vegetation Balambala 11.49 17.72 condition index to moderate vegetation deficit from severe Daadab 13.77 20.79 vegetation deficit in December. Lagdera worsened to Fafi 21.95 36.56 extreme vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit. Ijara 21.71 37.62 Lagdera 10.26 7.67 Dujis 16.67 22.13 ISIOLO County 9.86 7.37 The county and all sub counties maintained extreme I. North 9.46 6.68 vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. South 10.46 8.42 TANA RIVER County 20.62 29.21 The county and sub counties recorded moderate vegetation Bura 17.99 20.64 deficit in December. Garsen improved to normal vegetation Galole 20.22 30.54 greenness. Garsen 23.1 35.66 KAJIADO County 26.3 23.87 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado K. Central 15.44 14.07 central and Kajiado North recorded severe vegetation K. East 23.79 24.52 deficit. K. North 31.99 19.86 K. South 23.97 21.14 K. West 35.29 31.42 LAIKIPIA County 32.04 24.27 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit which L. East 31.34 32.13 was stable. Laikipia North worsened to severe vegetation L. North 21.64 15.37 deficit. L. West 51.85 37.15 THARAKA County 26.19 31.81 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit NITHI Chuka 39.26 44.71 during the month under review. Maara 41.89 39.42 Tharaka 16.24 24.52 WEST County 47.2 28.24 The County worsened to moderate vegetation deficit from POKOT Kacheliba 40.59 18.59 normal vegetation greenness during the month under Kapenguria 57.72 40.29 review. Pokot South 66.9 49.04 Sigor 38.71 23.33 EMBU County 41.19 47.79 The county and three its sub-counties recorded normal Manyatta 51.3 42.24 vegetation greenness except Mbeere north which recorded Mbeere 38.92 52.05 above normal vegetation greenness. Mbeere 36.31 48.56 Runyenjes 53.21 41.51 KITUI County 24.67 33.93 The county maintained moderate vegetation deficit during Kitui Central 25.99 37.34 the month under review. However, five sub counties Kitui East 23.54 33.73 improved to normal vegetation greenness. Mwingi 22.49 28.51 Mwingi 19.05 23.3 Mwingi 34.41 36.53 Kitui Rural 24.26 43.12 Kitui South 26.4 38.74 Kitui West 29.65 37.15 MAKUENI County 33.34 46.06 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation Kaiti 38.34 43.54 greenness to normal vegetation greenness from moderate Kibwezi East 26.26 41.52 vegetation greenness. Kibwezi 31.82 48.74 Kilome 26.93 30.65 Makueni 43.31 56.32 Mbooni 40.73 48.77 MERU County 29.98 32.83 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during Buuri 36.64 41.45 the month under review which was stable compared to Central 40.6 32.14 November. Igembe 23.05 29.25 Igembe 14.55 25.97 Igembe 25.48 25.35 North 31.15 27.09 South 52.4 31.19 Tigania East 26.3 36.08 Tigania 26.87 41.11 NYERI County 36.65 24.43 The county worsened to moderate vegetation deficit up Kieni 34.39 29.61 from normal vegetation greenness during the month of Mathira 35.64 12.62 November. Mukurweini 28.22 16.28 Othaya 55.09 26.78 Tetu 47.22 24.62 Township 12.72 2.37 KILIFI County 7.36 20.78 The vegetation condition in the county improved to Ganze 2.48 12.55 moderate vegetation deficit from extreme vegetation Kaloleni 13.62 12.75 deficit in December. Magarini 6.21 24.58 Malindi 8.2 24.48 Kilifi-North 20.44 32.45 Rabai 21.37 16.44 Kilifi-South 18.14 5.03 KWALE County 17.33 17.46 The county recorded stability trend in vegetation greenness Kinango 9.15 11.23 at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Lungalunga 24.56 22.02 Matuga 32.65 30.62 Msambweni 40.92 36.13 LAMU County 37.41 44.57 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal Lamu East 31.76 36.37 vegetation greenness which was improving trend when Lamu West 40.68 49.31 compared to the previous month of November. TAITA County 17.95 22.88 The county and two sub-counties recorded moderate TAVETA Mwatate 11.83 21.7 vegetation deficit up from severe vegetation deficit, which Taveta 21.01 25.09 was a decrease compared to November. Voi 17.94 22.28 Wundanyi 23.79 22.9 NAROK County 48.29 38.22 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in Narok-East 34.05 31.9 December. Emurua 69.31 60.65 Dikirr Kilgoris 64.44 54.87 Narok-North 43.32 37.59 Narok-South 36.78 27.42 Narok-West 58.21 41.82 Table 14: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score SUMMARY OF DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 5. Drought Phase Classification.",
            "February_2023.pdf": "February 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in 22 out of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2022 short rains coupled with four consecutive failed rainfall seasons. The OND 2022 rains were characterised by late onset, poor spatial distribution and early cessation. The month of January has also registered increasing temperatures across the country further exacerbating the situation. Marsabit county drifted from Alarm phase to Emergency phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui and Isiolo are in Alarm drought Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, January 2023 phase. Thirteen (13) counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot, Kwale and Narok are in the Alert drought phase. While one (1) county; Tharaka Nithi County is in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties and the assessment is ongoing to determine the cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 January Rainfall Performance The analysis of the January 2023 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties did not receive rainfall including Pastoral North East, South East Marginal Agriculture, Coast Marginal Agriculture and Pastoral North West livelihood clusters. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa. Garissa received about 16 50mm of rainfall especially in Dujis subcounty. Turkana county experienced dry condition. Marsabit county in Pastoral North West especially, Saku subcounty received considerable amount of Figure 2. January 2023 Rainfall Performance rainfall between 16 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very depressed rainfall with some parts recording between 16 - 25 mm of rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties experienced hot and dry condition. The Agro Pastoral cluster including; Narok county received notable rainfall during the month under review of between 51 75mm of rainfall. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance for the month of January 2023. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for February The rainfall outlook for the month of February is illustrated in figure 3. Evidently, most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands of Kenya will be generally under sunny and dry conditions. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. The coastal marginal Figure 3. February 2023 Rainfall forecast agriculture counties including; Taita Taveta and Kwale counties are forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) and Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are forecated to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for February 2023. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3: Relates the vegetation condition Index (VCI) in January 2023 with that in January 2022. Generally, the vegetation condition in 2022 was better in relation to that of 2023 same period. January 2022 January 2023 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) January 20222023 The month of January 2023 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of December 2022. Four (4) counties including; Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera and Isiolo were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following one county (1); Samburu is in Severe vegetation deficit. The following ten (10) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following two (2) counties including; Kitui and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following six (6) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in January 2023 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, January 2022 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of January 2023 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (4) (18) Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Mandera (East, Lafey, North, South, West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Mandera Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Wajir (East, Eldas, North, South, Tarbaj, West), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (North), Kilifi (South) Severe vegetation (1) (11) deficit Samburu Mandera (Banissa), Samburu (East, North), Garissa (Balambala), Isiolo (South), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (South), Laikipia (North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Rabai) Moderate (10) (26) vegetation deficit Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Baringo (Mogotio, South, Tiaty), Turkana (Central, East, Loima, North, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Taita South, West), Samburu (West), Garissa (Daadab), Tana River (Galole), Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado (Central, East, West), Laikipia (West), West Pokot (Sigor), Kilifi (Ganze, Malindi), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Normal vegetation (2) (27) greenness Kitui, Narok Baringo (North), Garissa (Fafi, Dujis), Tana River (Garsen), Kajiado (North), Laikipia (East), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Kitui (East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui South), Makueni (Kilome), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South), Nyeri (Mathira, Township), Kilifi (Magarini, North), Kwale (Msambweni), Lamu (East), Narok (East, South, West) Above normal (6) (31) Vegetation Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Baringo (Central, Eldama), Garissa (Ijara), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, greenness Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Maara), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, Rural, West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West,), Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Lamu (West), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, North) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse condition continue to deteriorate as temperature increase in the ASALs. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse is expected to get depleted in less than one month given high rate of evapo- transpiration induced by high temperatures. Pasture and browse deteriorated to poor condition in Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Kajiado, Kwale, Lamu counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Kilifi Makueni Isiolo Baringo Makueni Garissa Kitui Mandera Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Kilifi Mandera Meru Narok Kitui Marsabit Samburu Turkana Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Meru Turkana Tana River Lamu Samburu Wajir Embu Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Tana River Kajiado Nithi West Pokot Kwale Embu Lamu Kajiado Nyeri Kwale 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed poor and fair conditions in most of the arid and semi-arid counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Lamu, Makueni, Taita Taveta and Kilifi counties which reported good body condition for cattle only as indicated in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, January 2023 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Lamu Isiolo Baringo Lamu Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Garissa Taita Taveta Mandera Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Kitui Makueni Marsabit Meru Taita Taveta Turkana Meru Kilifi Turkana Narok Wajir Narok Wajir Tana River Laikipia Tana River Kajiado West Pokot Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia Embu Samburu Embu Nyeri Kwale Kajiado Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kwale 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of January showed a decline in trend as compared to the previous month of December in most of the counties. The following counties including Kajiado, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta and Kitui recorded an improving trend while Kitui, Kwale, Narok and Makueni were above normal. The OND short rainfall season in the above-mentioned counties, regenerated some pasture and browse, impacting positively in milk production. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 18 of the 23 counties. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, January 2023 Milk Kitui Baringo Kajiado Baringo West Pokot Kwale Embu Meru Embu Garissa Production Narok Garissa Narok Laikipia Isiolo Makueni Isiolo Taita Mandera Kilifi Tharaka Kajiado Taveta Tharaka Kwale Nithi Kilifi Kitui Nithi Lamu Laikipia Nyeri Mandera Tana River Marsabit Makueni Meru Marsabit Nyeri Wajir NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4. Livestock mortality Livestock mortality was noted in number of counties as indicated in the table below. The most affected counties with above- normal livestock mortality rates included Marsabit, Kajiado, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir and Mandera. Table 5 .0. Shows livestock mortality. Table 5.0. Showing livestock mortalities across 23 ASAL counties of Kenya. County Species Total Population Livestock Deaths Percentage Livestock Mortality Marsabit Sheep 1052437 511054 49 Marsabit Cattle 268882 122780 46 Marsabit Goats 1208668 535, 972 44 Kajiado Cattle 652856 258854 40 Isiolo Cattle 285210 112500 39 Marsabit Camels 283327 82841 29 Isiolo Goats 850000 212500 25 Samburu Cattle 369399 73879 20 Isiolo Sheep 1198000 179700 15 Samburu Sheep 651787 97768 15 Wajir Sheep 2231725 265286 12 Wajir Cattle 893032 89942 10 Kajiado Sheep 1244854 121020 10 Wajir Goats 3190511 237777 7 Taita Cattle 175349 11643 7 Laikipia Sheep 364951 20000 5 Samburu Goats 826119 41305 5 Kilifi Cattle 229891 10000 4 Wajir Donkeys 169527 7364 4 Kajiado Goat 1177771 44789 4 Wajir Camels 1184033 44079 4 Laikipia Goats 547420 19200 4 Laikipia Cattle 323370 11000 3 Nyeri (Kieni) Cattle 16903 500 3 Samburu Camels 30770 615 2 Taita Sheep 51885 934 2 Isiolo Camels 307011 4440 1 Isiolo Donkeys 38174 490 1 Kwale Sheep 51885 473 1 Taita Goats 312054 2634 1 Embu Poultry 422230 2800 1 Kwale Cattle 246509 1341 1 Embu Goats 280800 1060 0 Kwale Goats 394241 1070 0 Turkana Cattle 3269790 6539 0 Embu Cattle 161840 280 0 Embu Sheep 19300 25 0 Turkana Goats 6973731 6973 0 Turkana Sheep 6585780 6585 0 Lamu Sheep 27095 20 0 Lamu Goats 162988 60 0 Turkana Camels 3450 1 0 Kitui Cattle 1240197 191 0 Mandera Cattle 1295432 174 0 Lamu Cattle 205245 20 0 Mandera Sheep 1982699 165 0 Kitui Donkeys 190848 14 0 Kitui Poultry 1862272 108 0 Kitui Goats 1142188 59 0 Kitui Sheep 96062 4 0 Mandera Goats 4304090 129 0 Mandera Camels 1767881 23 0 Overall 52,822,469 2,613,008 5 Source data: State department of livestock records. 1.3.5 Cattle prices The cattle prices in the month of January worsened in 9 counties of Lamu, Mandera, Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Nyeri, West Pokot, Marsabit and Wajir compared to the previous month due to poor livestock body condition. 78 percent of the ASAL Countys cattle prices were below normal. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. The following counties including Garissa, Embu, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Turkana reported a stable trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, January 2023 Cattle Tana River Kilifi Baringo Kilifi Garissa Lamu Embu Isiolo Kwale Embu Mandera Makueni Kajiado Meru Isiolo Baringo Kwale Laikipia Samburu Laikipia Kajiado Mandera Tharaka Makueni Kitui Marsabit Nithi Narok Nyeri Meru Taita Taveta West Pokot Narok Tana River Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Wajir 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA when compared to the previous month of December. Most of the counties recorded stable trend with counties of Baringo, Kwale, Embu, Kajiado, Lamu, Makueni, Nyeri, Wajir and Marsabit reporting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions Table 6.0: Goat Prices, January 2023. Three counties recorded an improving trend. Goat Embu Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Kitui Garissa Laikipia Garissa Embu Laikipia Lamu Isiolo Tharaka Kitui Kajiado West Pokot Narok Mandera Nithi Meru Lamu Tana River Samburu Marsabit Narok Makueni Meru Taita Nyeri Nyeri Taveta Wajir Taita Taveta Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Tana River Baringo Nithi Mandera Turkana Turkana Wajir West Pokot 1.4 Crop production Coast Marginal Agriculture counties: In Kilifi County, the cassava in the farms recorded fair condition, while 2022 short rains crop of maize, green grams and cowpeas recording poor condition following poor performance of the season. Vegetables, water melons and few pineapples and mangoes were the main crop harvested during the month under review. In some areas in Kwale county, Maize, cowpeas and green grams were the main crops grown during the short rains season. Maize was at tasseling stage with at least 80 percent showing moisture stress in both livelihood zones. However, those in the livestock farming livelihood zone were replanting because their seeds dried up owing to a dry spell that occurred immediately after planting. According to the just concluded short rains assessment, maize production was estimated at only 25 percent which was equivalent of 69,410 90-kg bags compared with 27,741 bags normally produced. Cowpeas and green grams were still being harvested although the production was projected at 50 percent each. Approximately 9,655 and 12,492 90-kg bags of green grams and cowpeas were projected to be harvested in comparison with 19,310 and 24,984 90-kg bags for the respective crops in the five-year long-term average. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: The major crops planted in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone were green grams, millet, sorghum, cowpeas and maize. The Mixed Farming livelihood zone planted; maize, beans, pigeon peas, green grams and cowpeas. Area planted was lower than the long-term average due to late onset of the short rains and forecasted below normal rainfall. Majority of crops were in flowering, fruit filling or harvesting stages and in fair to poor condition. Total crop failure was also experienced in parts of Mwingi West, Kitui West and Mwingi North sub counties. Reported cases of fall and African army worm infestation was reported across the livelihood zones. In Makueni county, both the Mixed farming and Marginal Mixed farming livelihood zone, crops were at different stages of growth with maize having reached physiological maturity. Maize production will be adversely affected since the rainfall cessation was earlier causing the crop to be moisture-stressed at the critical time of tasseling silking stage. The production will be below average in most parts of the maize growing zones with some places like Kiima Kiu Kalanzoni and some parts of Kee and Mukaa wards realizing total crop failure. Production of green grams and cowpeas is expected to be good since the crops had attained physiological maturity by the time of rainfall cessation. There was also infestation among pulses in the Marginal Mixed Farming zone in areas such as Masongaleni. Pulses such as cowpeas and green grams had flourished in the Marginal mixed livelihood zone. Beans had performed well in the Mixed farming zone and good yields are expected. In Tharaka Nithi county, harvesting, winnowing and was ongoing for the OND season crops. About 90 of the farmers have planted considering the OND is the food production season for the County. The crop development stage was at maturity. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges particularly related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. Pulses planted during this season were green grams, cow peas and pigeon peas while as cereals like millet, sorghum and maize have been planted in the Mixed and Rain fed cropping Livelihood Zones. 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review Embu, Kajiado, Lamu, Marsabit and Wajir the price of maize was at a worsening trend while the remaining countie were at Stable (16) and improving (2) trend as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above Table 7.0: Maize prices, January 2023 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Tana River Baringo Embu Embu Makueni Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Lamu Kilifi Marsabit Kitui Wajir Kilifi Kwale Mandera Laikipia Narok Narok Nyeri Nyeri Meru Samburu Kwale 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance to household from water source due to water trucking interventions. Distances to household water access in arid counties ranged between 3.40 16.4 kilometers (km) with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. While in semi-arid counties, the distance range between 3 km to 6.8km was recorded by Nyeri and KajiadoTharaka Nithi respectively. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2023 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distanc Embu Baringo Kwale Embu Baringo Tharaka Garissa Kitui Narok Kilifi Isiolo Nithi e from Isiolo Meru Kitui Kajiado West Pokot househ Kajiado Samburu Lamu Kwale Mandera olds to Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Marsabit Laikipia Meru Turkana Garissa Lamu Narok Wajir Makueni Nyeri sources Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Nyeri Tana River Tharaka 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for four counties which are on a stable trend due to poor performance of OND short rains. The average trekking distance for Arid counties ranged between 8.3 kilometers and 28.5 kilometers with Baringo county recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 3.2 kilometers to 13.8 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru North highest. However, there was a slight improvement in Marsabit as a result of the ongoing water trucking interventions. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, January 2023 Distance Embu Kajiado Baringo Marsabit Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kitui Garissa Taita Taveta Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Narok Turkana Kajiado livestock Laikipia Samburu Wajir Kilifi grazing area Lamu Tana River Kitui Makueni Kwale to main Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Lamu sources Meru Makueni Nyeri Narok Taita Nyeri Taveta Samburu Tharaka Tana River Nithi Embu Turkana Meru Wajir Tharaka West Nithi Pokot West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. Over 95 percent of ASAL counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is on a worsening trend in 13 counties and five counties depicting a stable condition. Table 10.0 shows the terms of trade across 23 ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, January 2023 Terms of Isiolo Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Baringo trade Embu Laikipia Kilifi Mandera (ToT) Garissa Kwale Makueni Samburu Kitui Nyeri Kitui Marsabit Kwale Tharaka Tana River Wajir Makueni Nithi Lamu Mandera Narok Meru Turkana Kilifi Embu Laikipia Kajiado Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tharaka West Pokot Nyeri 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The counties of; Kilifi, Kitui, Kilifi, Samburu, Narok and West-Pokot recorded Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) measurement below the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Baringo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties recorded a worsening trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2023 Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Baringo Embu Kilifi Kitui Embu Baringo Nyeri Kwale Kitui Tharaka- Isiolo Kajiado MUAC Kajiado Meru Samburu Nithi Kwale Laikipia Tharaka Taita Narok Garissa Taita- Lamu Nithi Taveta West- Samburu Taveta Makueni Isiolo Pokot Kilifi Mandera Wajir Meru Marsabit Mandera Narok Tana River Tana Nyeri Turkana River Wajir Makueni West Garissa Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 12: sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of January 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot, Kwale and Narok are in the Alert drought phase, while one (1) county Tharaka Nithi is in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui and Isiolo are in Alarm drought phase. One (1) county, Marsabit is in Emergency drought phase. During the month under review, one (1) county reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, January 2023 Drought Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Tharaka Nithi Alert Kwale, Narok Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot Alarm Isiolo Kitui Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir Emergency Marsabit Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Scaling up the interventions in terms of food aid and cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Livestock off-takes (commercial and slaughter) Water sector Support scale up water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th January 2023 BARINGO County 37.83 32.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit and its three sub counties Central including Mogotio, Baringo South and Tiaty 53.62 54.95 Eldama 44.62 50.32 Mogotio 37.22 26.06 North 38.15 35.47 South 39.26 30.18 Tiaty 33.46 27.99 MANDERA County 11.79 5.96 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation condition to extreme Banissa 17.84 10.62 vegetation deficit in the month under review. Most of the sub counties worsened M East 5.59 2.19 during the month of January Lafey 10.66 2.91 M North 16.16 8.26 M South 7.22 5.79 M West 10.93 4.44 TURKANA County 25.32 23.18 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation greenness though still maintained T Central 36.64 29.05 at moderate vegetation deficit. Turkana central worsened from normal vegetation T. East 24.19 20.04 greenness to moderate vegetation deficit T. Loima 26.77 22.63 T. North 20.54 22.25 T. South 28.21 22.88 T. West 25.57 25.01 MARSABIT County 8.79 6.56 The county and all of its sub counties maintained at extreme vegetation deficit Laisaimis 8.26 6.42 during the month of January. Moyale 6.8 5.4 N. Horr 9.76 7.08 Saku 5.75 3.96 WAJIR County 7.3 7.3 The county and all of its sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit W East 7.41 8.05 during the month of January. W. Eldas 3.81 4.23 W. North 8.84 5.81 W. South 8.53 9.44 W. Tarbaj 8.75 8.28 W West 3 4.14 SAMBURU County 15.38 17.82 The county maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month under S East 11.31 15.69 review. Samburu North worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate S. North 16.45 18.23 vegetation deficit. S. West 28.41 25.17 GARISSA County 27.59 31.81 The county experienced stable trend in vegetation condition index at moderate Balambala 17.72 19.57 vegetation deficit during the month of January. Daadab 20.79 23.85 Fafi 36.56 38.09 Ijara 37.62 51.29 Lagdera 7.67 8.25 Dujis 22.13 37.1 ISIOLO County 7.37 8.68 The county and all of its sub counties maintained at extreme vegetation deficit I. North 6.68 6.96 during the month under review. I. South 8.42 TANA RIVER County 29.21 28.12 The county and all two of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit Bura 20.64 18.78 during the month January. Bura worsened to extreme vegetation deficit Galole 30.54 26.83 Garsen 35.66 36.86 KAJIADO County 23.87 25.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado North recorded an K. Central 14.07 23.74 improvement in vegetation condition to normal vegetation greenness during the K. East 24.52 27.03 month of January K. North 19.86 36.67 K. South 21.14 16.78 K. West 31.42 34.01 LAIKIPIA County 24.27 22.36 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia L. East 32.13 40.21 East recorded an improvement in vegetation condition during the month of L. North 15.37 15.46 January L. West 37.15 26.66 THARAKA County 31.81 54.93 The county and its sub counties recorded a general improvement in vegetation NITHI Chuka 44.71 67.8 condition to above normal vegetation greenness Maara 39.42 70.68 Tharaka 24.52 45.05 WEST County 28.24 24.74 The County worsened to moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when POKOT Kacheliba 18.59 15.14 compared to the previous month of December. Kapenguria 40.29 35.67 Pokot South 49.04 44.68 Sigor 23.33 21.18 EMBU County 47.79 64.93 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Manyatta 42.24 68.19 greenness during the month of January Mbeere North 52.05 65.39 Mbeere South 48.56 62.79 Runyenjes 41.51 68.25 County 33.93 45.03 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to normal vegetation greenness during the month of January up from moderate vegetation Kitui Central 37.34 55.42 deficit. Kitui East 33.73 42.75 KITUI Mwingi 28.51 Central 36.56 Mwingi North 23.3 37.46 36.53 40.28 Mwingi West Kitui Rural 43.12 70.13 Kitui South 38.74 49.02 Kitui West 37.15 56.69 MAKUENI County 46.06 64.07 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation greenness to normal Kaiti 43.54 70.87 vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness. Kibwezi East 41.52 63.35 Kibwezi West 48.74 62.09 Kilome 30.65 37.88 Makueni 56.32 75.59 Mbooni 48.77 70.83 County 32.83 52.52 The county recorded an improvement to above normal vegetation greenness Buuri 41.45 54.21 during the month of January from moderate vegetation deficit Central Imenti 32.14 63.39 Igembe 29.25 Central 46.17 Igembe North 25.97 36.49 Igembe South 25.35 48.67 North Imenti 27.09 61.23 South Imenti 31.19 63.39 Tigania East 36.08 55.24 Tigania West 41.11 68.18 County 24.43 51.77 The county and four of its sub counties recorded serious improvement in Kieni 29.61 53.36 vegetation condition from moderate vegetation deficit to above normal vegetation NYERI Mathira 12.62 48.24 greenness Mukurweini 16.28 52.93 Othaya 26.78 52.87 Tetu 24.62 52.1 Township 2.37 39.38 County 20.78 29.85 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate vegetation Ganze 12.55 22.95 deficit during the month under review. However, Magarini and Kilifi North KILIFI Kaloleni 12.75 10.15 improved to normal vegetation greenness Magarini 24.58 35.91 Malindi 24.48 30.52 Kilifi-North 32.45 37.13 Rabai 16.44 11.84 Kilifi-South 5.03 6.26 County 17.46 24.4 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition index during the KWALE Kinango 11.23 20.17 month of January from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation greenness Lungalunga 22.02 28.59 Matuga 30.62 30.29 Msambweni 36.13 39.89 LAMU County 44.57 52.98 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded an improvement in vegetation Lamu East 36.37 45.55 condition to above normal vegetation greenness Lamu West 49.31 57.27 County 22.88 28.87 The county and all of its sub counties remained constant at moderate vegetation TAITA Mwatate 21.7 25.75 deficit during the month under review TAVETA Taveta 25.09 23.87 Voi 22.28 32.39 Wundanyi 22.9 28.87 NAROK County 38.22 46.85 The county recorded the same vegetation greenness condition at normal Narok-East 31.9 38.93 vegetation greenness, however, Narok South, East and West recorded slight Emurua Dikirr 60.65 71.85 improvements Kilgoris 54.87 60.6 Narok-North 37.59 54.47 Narok-South 27.42 38.47 Narok-West 41.82 46 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "April_2023.pdf": "APRIL 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview Despite the reported rains in most parts of the country in the last Dekad of March, the rains are yet to impact on production systems. The drought situation thus remains critical in twenty-two (21) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of March 2023. The number of people in need of assistance still stands at 4.4 million currently following short rains (SRA) 2022 food security assessment. Two (2) counties namely Marsabit and Turkana remain in Emergency drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely Isiolo, Mandera, Kajiado, Samburu, Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, March 2023 Tana River, Wajir, Kilifi and Kitui are in Alarm drought phase. Eleven (11) counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Lamu, Makueni, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri, Meru, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. While two (2) counties; West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 970,214 children aged 6 to 59 months and 142,179 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. The reported rains in most of the Arid counties are associated with flush floods which had negative impacts on the local livelihoods and critical facilities like roads. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 March Rainfall Performance The analysis of the March 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received moderate amounts of rainfall. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa and Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received good amounts of rainfall. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui and the Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Figure 2. March 2023 Rainfall Performance Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received average rainfall amounts during the month of March. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did not receive good amounts of rainfall as compared to other clusters as shown figure 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for April The rainfall outlook for the month of April is illustrated in figure 3. Most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands of Kenya are forecasted to be under Near Average rainfall to Near Average to above average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly Near Average rainfall with Kitui and Makueni counties falling under Near Average to above average rainfall. The Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience Near-Average rainfall. The coastal Figure 3. April 2023 Rainfall forecast marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to Near-Average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) are forecated to experience both Near-Average rainfall to above average rainfall while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are are forecated to experience Near-Average rainfall. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for April 2023. 1.1.3. Impacts of Rainfall during the month Flash floods were reported in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Narok, Taita Taveta and Wajir Counties. Flooding in Marsabit affected 1200 households (HH) and 2000 livestock deaths in North Horr while 1500 HH and 800 livestock deaths were affected in Moyale sub-county (Golbo ward). Additional 200HH and 150HH were affected in Laisamis and Saku sub-counties respectively. Floods in Garissa led to displacement of 80HH in Jilango and 28HH in barfin and cut off the road from Jilango to Modogashe during the month. In Isiolo, floods occurred in Kinna North and Kinna South locations which caused the submerge of villages and reported death of livestock deaths and displacement of 700 Households during the month. In Mandera, floods were reported around River Daua, Rhamu, Elwak, Finjaru and Rhamu Dimtu that led to displacements, of 150 Households during the week. Tana River county reported flash floods in Maramtu farms in Madogo. River Tana water levels were reported to be fluctuating between 3.9 and 4.1 metres which depicts high probability of flooding risks as the rains continue. Thus, need for closer monitoring and sensitization of communities along the river belt to move to safer grounds. Samburu reported floods in Samburu East in Naishamunya sub-location where 800 households were displaced and 625 small stock and households goods swept away while heavy rains in Wajir North and the Ethiopian highlands resulted in flash floods in parts of Wajir North and Eldas sub-counties that caused loss of lives, livestock and property and; displacement of persons, damage to school infrastructure and closure of some schools. Taita Taveta reported flash floods in Mwatate sub-county while heavy rains in Turkana rendered roads in Kibish impassable during the month. Heavy rains in Narok caused swelling of river Suswa which disrupted transport along the Narok-Nairobi highway and river Narok that busted and caused flooding in Narok town while Mugor river busted its banks and destroyed a bridge in addition to causing displacement of approximately 200 households. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2023 with that of the previous month of February 2023. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of March showed slight improvement when compared to that of the month of February 2023 due to the rains received. The reported rains are expected to impact positively on vegetation regeneration. February 2023 March 2023 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of February and March The month of March 2023 indicated an improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of February 2023. The improvement in vegetation condition is associated with impacts of early onset of the March April May (MAM) rainfall season which has led to minor regeneration of vegetation in most counties. Two (2) counties including; Mandera and Tana River were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following three (3) counties; Wajir, Isiolo and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following five (5) counties including; Samburu, Garissa, Laikipia, Kilifi and Taita Taveta are in Moderate vegetation deficit while three (3) counties including; Turkana, Kajiado and Kitui recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following ten (10) counties including; Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Embu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, Lamu and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in March 2023 is better as compared to the previous month, February 2023 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of March 2023 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) (13) Mandera, Tana Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit River, (Moyale, Saku), Wajir (East), Garissa (Daadab), Tana River (Bura, Galole), Taita Taveta (Taveta), Severe (3) (17) vegetation Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South), deficit Samburu (East), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Garsen), Kajiado (South), Kitui (Mwingi Central), Kilifi (North, Malindi), Taita Taveta (Mwatate) Moderate (5) (20) vegetation Samburu, Garissa, Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, South, Central), Wajir (West, deficit Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Eldas), Samburu (North), Laikipia (North, West), Kajiado (East), Taveta, Kitui (Kitui East, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kilome), Meru (Igembe North), Kilifi (Kaloleni, South, Magarini, Rabai), Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Normal (3) (12) vegetation Turkana, Kajiado, Baringo (South, Tiaty), Turkana (Loima), Samburu (West), greenness Kitui, Laikipia (East), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Embu (Mbeere North), Kitui (Kitui South), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe, South), Kilifi (Ganze), Taita Taveta (Voi) Above normal (10) (51) Vegetation Baringo, Tharaka Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Turkana (West, North), Garissa greenness Nithi, West Pokot, (Township, Ijara), Kajiado (Central, North, West), Tharaka Nithi Embu, Makueni, (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kitui Lamu, Narok, (Central, Rural, West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni, Kaiti, Kibwezi east, Kibwezi west), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania east, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, West), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok east, Narok north, Narok south, Narok west) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture remained poor in 65 percent of arid and semi-arid counties while browse condition remained poor in 30 percent in arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with slight improvement realized when compared to the previous month of February. The current pasture and browse condition are under generation process following the ongoing March-April-May long rains. Pasture and browse have started sprouting in majority of the counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Isiolo Baringo Embu West Pokot Embu Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Garissa Kwale Makueni Isiolo Kilifi Meru Mandera Kajiado Kitui Narok Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Kwale Lamu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Laikipia Makueni West Pokot Lamu Mandera Meru Marsabit Narok Samburu Nyeri Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Wajir 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition for cattle was poor at 43 percent, fair at 52 percent and good at 4 percent in the arid and semi-arid counties. The body condition for goats cattle was poor at 30 percent, fair at 52 percent and good at 17 percent. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however there is slight improvement as compared to the previous month as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, March 2023 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Kwale Garissa Baringo Kwale Isiolo Embu Isiolo Embu Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Kajiado Taita Taveta Laikipia Kitui Marsabit Kilifi West Pokot Mandera Lamu Samburu Kitui Marsabit Makueni Turkana Laikipia Samburu Meru Wajir Makueni Tana River Narok Meru Turkana Nyeri Narok Wajir Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of March showed a slight improvement in trend as compared to the previous month of February in most of the counties. Six counties including; Baringo, Kajiado, Meru, Narok, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend while Makueni and Narok counties milk production was above normal. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 20 of the 23 counties. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2023 Milk Makueni Tharaka Baringo Baringo Embu Kilifi Narok Nithi Embu Kajiado Garissa Kitui Production Garissa Meru Isiolo Laikipia Isiolo Narok Kwale Makueni Kajiado Samburu Lamu Mandera Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Marsabit Kitui West Taita Taveta Kwale Pokot Tana River Laikipia Turkana Lamu Wajir 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Most of the ASAL counties (73 percent) of cattle prices were below normal. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however an improving trend has been noted across some counties including Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok and Samburu as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6.0: Cattle prices, March 2023 Cattle Kwale Embu Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Lamu Makueni Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Tana River West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Nyeri Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Tana River Kilifi Marsabit Lamu Wajir Kitui Meru Makueni Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Mandera Samburu Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Turkana Meru West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA when compared to the previous month of February. Most of the counties recorded stable trend with only two counties of Kilifi and Nyeri reporting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. The following counties namely Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend as shown in table 7.0 below. Table 7.0: Goat prices, March 2023 Goat Laikipia Baringo Garissa Baringo Makueni Kwale Makueni Kitui Isiolo Embu Taita Taveta Nyeri Kilifi Lamu Mandera Isiolo Embu Tana River Samburu Marsabit Marsabit Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Meru Samburu Kitui Wajir Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Meru West Pokot Turkana Tana River Kajiado Turkana Kwale Wajir Embu Narok Narok Garissa Baringo Kilifi 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. Table 8 below summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 8.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Kilifi Land preparation ongoing Agriculture Harvesting of Pineapples Kwale Minimal land preparation had begun South East Marginal Kitui Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the Agriculture livelihood zones Makueni Farmers were busy planting drought-resistant and early maturing crops varieties as per the advisories developed Tharaka Nithi Land preparing and planting was the main engagements in the county, for early planters, crops were at the germination stage Increased incidences of pests especially quelea infestation on farms 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review, maize prices were above avarage across ASAL counties due to consecutive failed seasons as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Maize prices, March 2023 Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening to LTA Maize Embu Mandera Baringo Kitui Kilifi Narok Garissa Laikipia Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Lamu Taita Taveta Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Samburu West Pokot Meru Baringo West Pokot Garissa Tana River Isiolo Makueni Kajiado Kajiado 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 15 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance to household from water source. Arid (pastoral) counties distances to household water access ranged between 3.3 kilometers (km) and 16.3 km with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. In semi-arid the distance ranged between 2.4km to 9.7km recorded by Narok and Meru counties respectively. 11 counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri and Wajir showed an improving trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table Table 10.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2023 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Garissa Embu Baringo Baringo Makueni Kilifi Kajiado Marsabit Isiolo Embu Mandera Kitui Kilifi Samburu Laikipia Garissa Turkana Kwale househol Kitui Narok Isiolo West Pokot Lamu ds to Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Samburu main Lamu Laikipia Taita Taveta Makueni Marsabit Tana River Mandera Meru Tharaka Nithi sources Meru Narok Nyeri Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In comparison with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above the LTA in 13 counties. The following counties including; Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Wajir, West Pokot and Baringo recorded an improvement in trend. The average trekking distance for livestock for the month under review in Arid counties ranged between 22 kilometers and 8.7 kilometers with Baringo county recording lowest distances and Mandera highest. In the case of semi-arid counties, the distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 3.2 kilometers to 13.3 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru highest. Table 11.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 11.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2023 Distance Isiolo Embu Baringo Embu Kwale Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Garissa Mandera Kitui Kitui Marsabit Kwale Isiolo Taita Taveta Lamu livestock Laikipia Wajir Lamu Kajiado Turkana Makueni grazing area Makueni Narok Laikipia Samburu to main Mandera Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Tana River Meru Meru Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Narok sources Samburu Nyeri Taita Wajir Taveta West Pokot Tana River Baringo 1.6 Terms of trade The trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties was below the long-term average as a result of low purchasing power of households across all ASAL counties. This resulted in high commodity prices, however, an improving trend has been noted in seven counties of Embu, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi as shown in Table 12. Table 12.0: Terms of Trade, March 2023 Terms of Isiolo Baringo Embu Garissa Kitui trade Embu Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia (ToT) Garissa Mandera Baringo Kwale Kitui Marsabit Wajir Lamu Kwale Samburu Narok Nyeri Makueni Tana River Turkana Mandera Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Meru Meru Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Taita Taveta Samburu West Pokot Isiolo 1.7. Health and nutrition Table 13 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Nyeri, Kajiado, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Makueni, Marsabit, Turkana, Embu, Kwale, Meru, Samburu, Kitui, Tharaka Nithi, Garissa and Taita Taveta counties recorded MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Twelve counties recorded a worsening in trend in the month under review while Kilifi, Lamu, Meru and Narok recorded an improving trend. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2023 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kilifi Kilifi Embu Baringo Nyeri Laikipia Lamu Isiolo Garissa MUAC Kajiado Lamu Meru Kajiado Laikipia Isiolo Narok Narok Mandera Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West- Marsabit Wajir Mandera Pokot Nyeri Kitui Tana River Tana River Taita-Taveta Makueni West Pokot Kwale Marsabit Makueni Turkana Samburu Embu Turkana Garissa 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 14 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of March 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties including Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Lamu, Makueni, Meru (North), Kwale, and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while two (2) counties namely West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi are in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Kilifi, and Kitui are in Alarm drought phase. Two (2) counties, Marsabit and Turkana are in Emergency drought phase. During the month under review, majority of the counties have reported an improving trend, four (4) counties recorded a stable trend, while four (4) counties reported a worsening trend due to delayed onset of the long rains in these four counties. Overall, the drought situation remains grave in twenty-one (21) ASAL counties. Table 14.0: Drought phase classification, March 2023 Drought Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi Alert Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Lamu, Makueni, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Meru (North), Alarm Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Kilifi, Kitui Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Emergency Marsabit, Turkana Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought and other shocks. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists moving back to their settlements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th March 2023 BARINGO County 44.76 54.9 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Mogotio recorded moderate vegetation deficit Central 69.62 83.34 North 50.22 66.27 South 35.84 41.16 Ravine 74.68 98.16 Mogotio 28.23 31.24 40.57 Tiaty 48.98 MANDERA County -5.7 -18.86 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation condition to extreme Lafey -10.8 -24.87 vegetation deficit in the month of March. North -11.72 -31.71 Banissa -5.49 -22.63 West -3.37 -13.97 South 1.87 -5.31 East -5.13 -12.89 TURKANA County 32.39 43 East 23.78 23.2 South 25.35 27.55 The county recorded an improving trend in vegetation greenness to Loima 30.09 36.34 normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Turkana West Central 28.2 27.56 and Turkana North improved to above normal vegetation greenness. West 39.97 57.65 North 36.79 57.35 MARSABIT County 8.2 10.93 The county recorded severe vegetation greenness which was an Laisamis 8.5 12.83 improvement from extreme vegetation greenness during the previous Moyale 4.24 2.48 month of February. North Horr 9.1 12.06 Saku 7.1 9.9 WAJIR County 10.5 15.8 The county recorded severe vegetation deficit. Wajir west and Eldas Tarbaj 10.69 15.41 improved to moderate vegetation deficit. North 7.86 12.86 South 10.88 10.46 West 14.25 32.87 Eldas 10.67 26.57 East 7.59 5.33 SAMBURU County 23.06 25.04 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness during the East 17.93 17.88 month under review. Samburu west improved to normal vegetation deficit. North 26.37 29.85 West 32.66 37.76 GARISSA County 29.07 24.02 The county experienced a stable trend in vegetation condition index at Balambala 17.82 14.78 moderate vegetation deficit during the month of March. Township and Township 52.15 63.11 Ijara were in above normal vegetation greenness. Ijara 61.11 69.82 Fafi 27.34 13.04 Lagdera 12.1 19.26 Dadaab 16.41 2.75 ISIOLO County 12.13 17.46 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at severe vegetation North 10.04 16.19 deficit during the month under review. South 15.31 19.4 TANA RIVER County 18.53 8.39 The county and all two of its sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation Bura 12.16 4.59 deficit during the month March. Galole 11.78 -4.08 Garsen 28.16 19.42 KAJIADO County 36.32 46.5 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at moderate Central 43.16 65.5 vegetation deficit. East 28.55 26.27 North 64.72 86.09 South 17.04 16.98 West 50.79 67.52 LAIKIPIA County 27.32 30.53 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when East 48.6 49.88 compared to the previous month of February. North 21.87 27.57 West 27.26 26.75 THARAKA County 72.57 79.33 The county and its sub counties recorded a general stability in vegetation NITHI Chuka 86.04 91.07 condition to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of Maara 107.92 127.25 March. Tharaka 56.19 59.59 WEST County 38.05 51.61 The county improved to above normal vegetation greenness from normal POKOT Kacheliba 29.77 42.6 vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kapenguria 46.67 60.19 Pokot south 56.38 72.23 Sigor 35.03 48.56 EMBU County 71.68 68.11 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded above normal Manyatta 101.54 120.12 vegetation greenness during the month of March. Mbeere north 60.93 49.11 Mbeere south 62.04 51.91 Runyenjes 98.35 112.98 County 45.21 39.46 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at normal vegetation greenness during the month of March when compared with the Kitui central 65.35 66.26 KITUI previous month of February Kitui east 37.63 27.57 Kitui rural 84.68 94.58 Kitui south 51.62 48.14 Kitui west 68.89 73.27 Mwingi central 28.7 16.16 Mwingi north 38.02 31.79 Mwingi west 34.46 23.38 County 73.85 76.45 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal Kaiti 91.26 100 vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kilome subcounty MAKUENI Kibwezi east 79.08 87 worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Kibwezi west 64.02 59.25 Kilome 38.34 30.76 Makueni 86.62 94.07 Mbooni 84.76 88.88 County 68.53 74.92 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal Buuri 72.82 87.41 vegetation greenness during the month of March Central Imenti 102.83 129.14 Igembe central 48.17 40.92 Igembe north 33.38 23.34 Igembe south 54.87 47 North Imenti 98.66 123.64 South Imenti 113.7 143.2 Tigania east 64.62 65.01 Tigania west 89.76 103.84 County 93.65 119.36 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation NYERI Kieni 88.53 110.55 condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition. Mathira 101.38 131.31 Mukurweini 99.71 129.91 Nyeri town 89.1 124.17 Othaya 99.78 125.99 Tetu 103.57 135.85 County 31.63 33.76 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate KILIFI Ganze 32.93 45 vegetation deficit during the month under review. However, Kilifi north Kaloleni 15.26 30.32 and Malindi sub counties worsened to severe vegetation deficit. Kilifi north 28.01 14.2 Kilifi south 13.67 26.05 Magarini 35.37 33.49 Malindi 24.41 17.32 Rabai 15.18 29.59 KWALE County 38.83 60.45 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition index during Kinango 36.76 62.36 the month of March from normal vegetation greenness to above normal Lunga lunga 40.94 58.31 vegetation greenness Matuga 40.5 58.27 Msambweni 49.28 53.42 LAMU County 63.63 73.28 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Lamu east 58.77 70.52 greenness during the month under review Lamu west 66.45 74.88 TAITA County 33.42 33.49 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month TAVETA Mwatate 23.66 16.31 under review. Taveta subcounty worsened to extreme vegetation deficit. Taveta 19.76 9.29 Voi 42.69 49.53 Wundanyi 25.26 23.23 County 69.51 94.93 Emurua Dikirr 91.4 104.3 NAROK Kilgoris 81.88 104.24 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness condition at above Narok east 50.81 61.44 normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Narok north 76.56 95.17 Narok south 66.15 96.25 Narok west 69.54 102.17 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long- term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return indicators fluctuate to seasonal outside expected norms seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal fluctuate outside ranges seasonal ranges drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "May_2023.pdf": "MAY 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The ongoing March-April-May (MAM) rainfall season occasioned a positive impact on livelihoods across most parts of Arid and Semi-Arid counties with environmental indicators depicting recovery drought phase situation. Despite the recovery across the ASAL counties, food security situation is yet to improve and the number of people in need of assistance remains at 4.4 million following short rains (SRA) 2022 food security assessment while the risk of Acute malnutrition remains. There is often a lag between recovery from drought and food available across the Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, April 2023 livelihoods. Three counties (3), Wajir, Taita Taveta and Lamu remain in Alert drought phase while Seven (7) counties namely Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa and Narok are in Normal drought phase. Thirteen (13) counties including; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Nyeri are in the Recovery drought phase. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. Conversely, the rains have caused flash floods in most of the Arid counties which has negative impacts on local livelihoods like displacements and destruction of critical facilities like roads thereby hindering movement and commerce. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 April Rainfall Performance The analysis of the April 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs received good amounts of rainfall. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa and Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received rainfall ranging between 101mm to 225mm of rainfall with central Turkana, Central Marsabit and North West Mandera receiving highest amounts of rainfall. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui and the Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot Figure 2. April 2023 Rainfall Performance received average rainfall amounts during the month of April ranging between 50mm to 100mm of rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did receive good amounts of rainfall with Lamu county recording highest amounts of rainfall of greater than 225 mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for the month of May The rainfall outlook for the month of May is illustrated in figure 3. Most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands are forecasted to receive Near-Average to above-average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly Near Average rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to experience Near-Average rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties includeing Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to get Near- Average to above average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana Figure 3. May 2023 Rainfall forecast River and Garissa) are forecasted to experience both Near-Average rainfall to above average rainfall while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are are forecated to experience Near-Average rainfall. 1.1.3. Flooding Floods were experienced from March through April 2023 in the following counties including Marsabit, Garissa, Turkana, Tana River, Mandera and Wajir. Wajir County reported that an estimated 7,160 households were affected, out of which 6,325 were displaced. The roads linking various towns and settlements were rendered impassable in the county. The critical roads infrastructure including culverts, murram, bridges and drifts were damaged. Communities reported loss of valuable assets including; livestock, destruction of farms and loss of essential commodities by small scale traders, among others. Mandera indicated that flash floods have affected all the 9 locations in Mandera town leading to destruction of various structures including house, toilets, blocking of culverts, interruption of free movement and displacement of many families within the locations. This has negatively impacted the livelihood of the communities living in the town. A total of 4,172 households were affected and need urgent humanitarian intervention. Flooding in other counties including Tana River, Garissa and Marsabit had minimal impact. 1.2 Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of April showed slight improvement when compared to that of the month of March 2023. The reported rains are expected to continue to impact positively on vegetation condition. 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse improved in 56 percent of arid and semi-arid counties with all counties recording fair to good pasture and browse conditions as shown in Table 2. However, the current pasture and browse conditions are below normal as compared to normal years with slight improvement realized when compared to the previous month of March. The pasture and browse regeneration continue to be registered in majority of the counties and expected to improve to normal status in the coming weeks with the ongoing March-April-May long rains. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Kilifi Mandera Embu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Kajiado Mandera Meru Garissa Meru Marsabit Nyeri Narok Kilifi Narok Samburu Isiolo Nyeri Tana River Taita Taveta Kitui Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Laikipia Taita Taveta Garissa Lamu Tana River Kitui Isiolo Turkana Makueni Wajir Laikipia Kajiado West Pokot Lamu Makueni Baringo Baringo Embu Kwale 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition for cattle was fair at 65 percent and good at 35 percent. The body condition for goats was also fair at 52 percent and good at 48 percent. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however there is an improvement as compared to the previous month as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2023 Cattle Goats Meru Mandera Meru Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Narok Nyeri Kitui Taita Taveta Kitui Samburu Narok Tana River Isiolo Tana River Isiolo Wajir Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Turkana Embu Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot Lamu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Baringo Embu Kajiado Kwale Lamu Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Makueni 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of April showed an improvement in trend as compared to the previous month of March in majority of the counties. However, milk production was below LTA of a normal year in 74 percent of the ASAL counties. Milk production is expected to increase with browse and pasture regeneration. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2023 Milk Makueni Garissa Baringo Baringo Kitui Production Narok Kwale Embu Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Narok Meru West Pokot Kajiado Samburu Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Kitui Embu Laikipia Garissa Lamu Isiolo Mandera Kwale Marsabit Lamu Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Kilifi Taita Taveta Laikipia Tana River Makueni Turkana Mandera Wajir Taita Taveta Wajir 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in the counties of Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), Sheep and goat pox and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices In most of the ASAL counties (65 percent), cattle prices were below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, an improving trend has been noted in majority of the counties as illustrated in Table 6. The current unstable livestock body condition is attributed to current below normal prices. Table 6.0: Cattle prices, April 2023 Cattle Prices Kwale Embu Baringo Embu Baringo Kwale Lamu Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Tana River Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Marsabit Lamu West Pokot Kilifi Meru Tana River Kitui Narok West Pokot Laikipia Samburu Narok Wajir Nyeri Garissa Samburu Kitui Taita Taveta Makueni Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were above normal as a result of improving livestock body condition. Most of the counties recorded Improving trend. The following counties including Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu and Meru were at LTA t While 35 percent of the counties remained in stable trend as shown in table 7.0 below. Table 7.0: Goat prices, April 2023 Goat Embu Garissa Mandera Kajiado Prices Kilifi Kajiado Narok Kilifi Laikipia Kitui Baringo Kitui Makueni Lamu Garissa Laikipia Tana River Meru Isiolo Lamu Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Tana River Wajir Meru Taita Taveta West Pokot West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Wajir Mandera Embu Marsabit Kwale Narok Marsabit Nyeri Samburu 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture clusters. Most of the planted crops germinated and farmers in different agro- ecological zones are engaged in weeding activities. Table 8.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Kilifi Farmers have their maize crop germinated and few are weeding Agriculture Cow peas were less planted Kwale Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones South East Marginal Kitui Crops were at germination to knee highflowering stage and in Agriculture good condition Makueni Crops were in the early vegetative stage. Farmers were weeding and top dressing Tharaka Nithi Farmers were doing first weeding and pest control Crop conditions were good and approaching flowering stage and at knee high 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review, Maize prices remained above avarage across ASAL counties due to the depleted stocks, coupled with increased food and essential commodities prices across the country. Three counties namely Samburu, Tana River and Turkana showed an improving trend while Lamu, Makueni, Narok and West Pokot counties were on a worsening trend as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Maize prices, April 2023 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Embu Samburu Mandera Lamu Kilifi Tana River Baringo Makueni Laikipia Turkana Garissa Narok Makueni Isiolo West Pokot Tana River Nyeri Wajir Wajir West Pokot Embu Baringo Kwale Isiolo Marsabit Kwale Kajiado Mandera Kilifi Marsabit Kitui Narok Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Tharaka Nithi Garissa 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households has improved across the ASAL counties. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance from household to water source. Arid (pastoral) counties distances to household water access ranged between 1.8km and 6.1 km with Isiolo recording lowest and Turkana recording highest distances as compared to the previous month where the lowest was 3.3km and highest 16.3 km. In semi-arid counties, Narok and Meru counties ranged between 1.5km to 7.2km respectively as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 2.4km to 9.7 km. All counties showed an improving trend in household access distances to water sources except for Makueni which was stable. Table 10.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2023 Distance Kilifi Kajiado Baringo Baringo Makueni from Kwale Turkana Embu Embu households Makueni West Pokot Marsabit Garissa to main Meru Samburu Isiolo water Nyeri Isiolo Kajiado sources Taita Taveta Laikipia Laikipia Tana River Narok Marsabit Garissa Narok Kitui Nyeri Lamu Wajir Wajir Turkana 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In comparison with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source has reduced and thus indicating an improving trend. The average trekking distance for livestock for the month under review in Arid counties ranged between 5kms and 9.3km with Isiolo county recording lowest distances and Garissa highest as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 8.7km and 22 km. In the case of semi-arid counties, the distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 2.2 kilometers to 9.6 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru highest as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 3.2km and 13.3km. Table 11.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2023 Distance from Embu Meru Baringo Embu Kwale Kilifi livestock grazing Kajiado Tana River Garissa Garissa Mandera Kitui area to main Kilifi Wajir Kwale Isiolo Taita Taveta Lamu water sources Laikipia West Pokot Lamu Kajiado Turkana Makueni Makueni Narok Laikipia Samburu Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Tana River Taita Taveta Isiolo Meru Tharaka Nithi Kitui Narok Mandera Nyeri Samburu Wajir Marsabit Baringo 1.6 Terms of trade The trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties was stable across all counties but below LTA due to high maize prices as shown in Table 12. Terms of trade are expected to improve as the season progresses. Table 12.0: Terms of Trade, April 2023 Terms of trade Mandera Baringo West Pokot Embu Nyeri (ToT) Embu Kajiado Garissa Garissa Kitui Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Baringo Kwale Kwale Wajir Makueni Lamu Narok Meru Makueni Turkana Kilifi Taita Taveta Meru Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Samburu Mandera Taita Taveta Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Samburu Wajir Tana River Marsabit Nyeri Narok 1.7. Health and nutrition Table 13 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition. MUAC measurements recorded an improvement across most of the ASAL counties. However, in 17 counties, the MUAC is still above LTA. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Five counties recorded a worsening trend in the month under review while Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Kitui, Mandera, Nyeri, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, Wajir and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. On a positive note, only Narok, Kilifi, Laikipia, West-Pokot and Taita Taveta counties that recorded MUAC below the long-term average. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2023 Baringo Garissa Narok Embu Baringo Garissa Nyeri Lamu Kilifi Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi MUAC Kajiado Embu Laikipia Kwale Lamu Laikipia Isiolo Meru West-Pokot Kitui Marsabit Makueni Wajir Marsabit Taita Taveta Mandera Samburu Meru Kwale Nyeri Taita-Taveta Mandera Narok Tana River Tana River Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Makueni Wajir 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of April 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored, seven (7) counties including Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa and Narok are in the Normal drought phase, while three (3) counties; Lamu, Wajir, Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. Thirteen (13) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Nyeri are in Recovery drought phase. During the month under review, majority of the counties have reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded a stable trend, while none (0) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, April 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo, Garissa, Narok Alert Lamu, Wajir Taita Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana Recommendations Food and safety nets Monitoring the recovery phase and supporting food assistance and cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists moving back to their settlements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. Investing in strategic water harvesting infrastructure for future lean seasons Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th April 2023 BARINGO County 54.9 56.5 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Central 83.34 86.15 Mogotio recorded moderate vegetation deficit North 66.27 71.21 South 41.16 41.62 Ravine 98.16 106.69 Mogotio 31.24 29.31 48.98 49.08 Tiaty MANDERA County -18.86 -22.56 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation condition to extreme vegetation deficit Lafey -24.87 -29.31 in the month of April. North -31.71 -38.54 Banissa -22.63 -28.57 West -13.97 -14.71 South -5.31 -6.99 East -12.89 -15.74 TURKANA County 43 41.29 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation greenness to normal vegetation East 23.2 18.37 greenness during the month of April. Turkana East and Central worsened to severe South 27.55 22.38 vegetation deficit. Loima 36.34 32.63 Central 27.56 19.39 West 57.65 58.01 North 57.35 60.17 MARSABIT County 10.93 10.63 The county recorded severe vegetation greenness which was stable when compared to Laisamis 12.83 12.3 the last month of March Moyale 2.48 2.11 North Horr 12.06 11.9 Saku 9.9 9.94 WAJIR County 15.8 16.5 The county recorded severe vegetation deficit. Wajir west and Eldas improved to normal Tarbaj 15.41 15.92 vegetation greenness. North 12.86 16.77 South 10.46 5.29 West 32.87 40.61 Eldas 26.57 35.89 East 5.33 SAMBURU County 25.04 20.57 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness during the month of April. East 17.88 11.78 North 29.85 26.22 West 37.76 37.08 GARISSA County 24.02 13.35 The county experienced a worsening trend in vegetation condition index to severe Balambala 14.78 5.97 vegetation deficit during the month of April. Township and Ijara were in above normal Township 63.11 57.38 vegetation greenness. 65.73 Ijara 69.82 Fafi 13.04 -3.98 Lagdera 19.26 20.22 Dadaab 2.75 -13.16 ISIOLO County 17.46 16.42 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at severe vegetation deficit during the North 16.19 16.75 month of April. 15.92 South 19.4 TANA RIVER County 8.39 -2.58 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at extreme vegetation deficit Bura 4.59 -5.61 Galole -4.08 -17.77 Garsen 19.42 9.5 KAJIADO County 46.5 50.68 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation Central 65.5 81.4 greenness during the month of April East 26.27 20.91 North 86.09 96.15 South 16.98 13.71 West 67.52 75.1 LAIKIPIA County 30.53 28.04 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of April East 49.88 42.04 North 27.57 27.08 West 26.75 23.06 THARAKA County 79.33 68.17 The county and its sub counties recorded a general stability in vegetation condition to NITHI Chuka 91.07 80.71 above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Maara 127.25 124.46 Tharaka 59.59 45.46 WEST POKOT County 51.61 54.75 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month Kacheliba 42.6 46.32 under review. Kapenguria 60.19 60.65 Pokot south 72.23 76.71 Sigor 48.56 52.15 EMBU County 68.11 53.52 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness Manyatta 120.12 119.18 during the month of April. Mbeere north 49.11 28.09 Mbeere south 51.91 33.84 Runyenjes 112.98 110.61 County 39.46 27.29 The county worsened in vegetation condition to moderate vegetation greenness up from KITUI Kitui central 66.26 56.63 normal vegetation greenness during the month of April when compared with the previous Kitui east 27.57 12.66 month of March Kitui rural 94.58 89.18 Kitui south 48.14 37.54 Kitui west 73.27 64.42 Mwingi central 16.16 2.28 Mwingi north 31.79 17.86 Mwingi west 23.38 9.68 County 76.45 70.04 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation MAKUENI Kaiti 100 99.86 greenness during the month under review. Kilome subcounty maintained at moderate Kibwezi east 87 83.18 vegetation deficit. Kibwezi west 59.25 48.85 Kilome 30.76 20.33 Makueni 94.07 89.63 Mbooni 88.88 82.55 County 74.92 69.21 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation Buuri 87.41 87.93 greenness during the month of April Central Imenti 129.14 133.46 Igembe central 40.92 27.57 Igembe north 23.34 11.35 Igembe south 47 32.13 North Imenti 123.64 128.67 South Imenti 143.2 144.49 Tigania east 65.01 55.59 Tigania west 103.84 101.92 NYERI County 119.36 122.68 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above Kieni 110.55 112.85 normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of April. Mathira 131.31 136.77 Mukurweini 129.91 135.7 Nyeri town 124.17 133.62 Othaya 125.99 127.76 Tetu 135.85 139.16 County 33.76 30.2 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate vegetation deficit KILIFI Ganze 45 48.25 during the month under review. However, Kilifi north and Malindi sub counties worsened Kaloleni 30.32 41.42 to extreme vegetation deficit. Kilifi north 14.2 0.36 Kilifi south 26.05 27.25 Magarini 33.49 26.44 Malindi 17.32 9.33 Rabai 29.59 35.3 KWALE County 60.45 71.08 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition index during the month of April at Kinango 62.36 75.81 above normal vegetation greenness Lunga Lunga 58.31 67.79 Matuga 58.27 64.43 Msambweni 53.42 47.04 LAMU County 73.28 71.29 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during Lamu east 70.52 70.76 the month under review Lamu west 74.88 71.59 County 33.49 27.66 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of April. However, TAITA TAVETA Mwatate 16.31 5.16 Mwatate and Taveta sub counties recorded extreme vegetation deficit. Taveta 9.29 -3.58 Voi 49.53 48.35 Wundanyi 23.23 15.57 County 94.93 109.96 NAROK Emurua Dikirr 104.3 104.24 Kilgoris 104.24 112.69 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness condition at above normal Narok east 61.44 66.92 vegetation greenness during the month of April. Narok north 95.17 101.76 Narok south 96.25 115.56 Narok west 102.17 125.25 Table 15.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "June_2023.pdf": "National Drought Management Authority NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN JUNE 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The Arid and Semi-Arid counties are recording positive impacts of the just-ended March to May rainfall season. Three (3) counties are in drought Recovery phase while 19 are in Normal phase. However, Taita Taveta county remained in Alert drought phase during the month of June 2023. The 19 counties in Normal drought phase include; Makueni, Embu, Lamu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru and Narok. Isiolo, Marsabit and Kwale are in Recovery phase. Acute malnutrition has been noted among children below five years and pregnant and lactating women across the counties. The number of people in need of relief assistance stands at 4.4 million as per the findings of the October to December 2022 Short Rains Food Figure 1: Drought Phase Classification - June 2023 Security Assessment released in February. An assessment of the impacts of the March to May 2023 long rains on local livelihoods is ongoing by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG), which brings together Government sectors, UN agencies and non-governmental organisations. The assessment is critical since food securityinsecurity in the country, especially in the 23 ASAL counties, is highly dependent on rainfall. The assessment findings will provide detailed data on the food security situation in the country, which will inform action by the Government and our partners. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 June 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the June 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received low amounts of rainfall ranging between 40mm to 1mm. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received rainfall amounts ranging from 1mm to 5mm. The Pastoral North west counties, including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu, received considerable rainfall ranging between 21mm to 80mm. The Agro-pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerably good rainfall amounts ranging between 21mm to 100mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties as well as Figure 2: June 2023 Rainfall Performance the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received low rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm to 40mm. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for July 2023 Most parts of the ASALs are forecasted to be under generally sunny and ry conditions. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi will experience sunny and dry conditions while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo will experience periodic chilly and overcast conditions with light rains alongside sunny and dry conditions. The Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) are forecasted to receive near-average rainfall to slightly-above-average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) will experience generally sunny and dry conditions while the forecast for the Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) indicates below normal rainfall to generally sunny and dry Figure 3: July 2023 Rainfall forecast conditions as illustrated in Figure 3. 1.1.3 Flooding In Mandera, farms along River Daua are still wet from the flooding witnessed during the long rains and are yet to be planted. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 tracks the progression in vegetation regeneration based on vegetation condition index (VCI) values in May and June 2023. Generally, the vegetation condition in June showed great improvement compared to May. Figure 4: VCI values trends for the months of May and June 2023 The improvement is attributed to the performance of the March to May long rains season, which led to vegetation regeneration in most counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, and Taita Taveta counties registered Moderate vegetation deficit, hence require close monitoring. Ten (10) counties including West Pokot, Turkana, Marsabit, Laikipia, Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Kitui, Kajiado and Kilifi recorded Normal vegetation greenness while another nine (9) counties - Baringo, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Narok, Makueni, Lamu and Kwale recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Figure 4 provides a summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2023 while Table 1 shows disaggregation by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in June 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation deficit Moderate (4) (24) vegetation Mandera, Samburu, Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, East), Turkana (East, Central), deficit Tana River, Taita Marsabit (Moyal), Wajir (South, East), Samburu (East, North), Taveta Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Daadab), Tana River (Bura, Galole), Kajiado (East, South), Kitui (Mwingi North), Meru (Igembe North), Kilifi (North), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi) Normal (10) (38) vegetation Turkana, Marsabit, Baringo (Mogotio), Mandera (West, South), Turkana (south, greenness Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Loima, West, North), Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Wajir Kajiado, Laikipia, West (Tarbaj, North, Eldas), Samburu (West), Garissa (Township, Pokot, Kitui, Kilifi Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Garsen), Laikipia (East, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Embu (Mbeere north, Mbeere South),Kitui (East, South, Mwingi central, Mwingi west), Makueni (Kibwezi east, Kilome), Maru (Igembe central, Igembe north), Kilifi (Kilifi south, Magarini, Malindi), Taita Taveta (Voi) Above normal (9) (51) Vegetation Baringo, Tharaka Baringo (central, north, south, ravine, Tiaty), Wajir (west), greenness Nithi, Embu, Makueni, Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (central, north, west), Tharaka Nithi Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Lamu, Narok Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, rural, west), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi east, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Imenti central, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga, Msambweni, Matuga), Lamu (East, West), Narok (East, West, North, South, Kilgoris, Emurua Dikirr) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse was good condition in 74 of ASAL counties as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are above normal, which is a great improvement compared to May. The regeneration is attributed to performance of the March to May long rains. Table 2. Pasture and browse condition, June 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi - Tana River Wajir Tana River Wajir Kajiado Samburu Kajiado Samburu Kitui Mandera Narok Mandera Narok Embu Turkana Embu Turkana Baringo Baringo Kilifi Kilifi Lamu Lamu West Pokot West Pokot Isiolo Isiolo Kwale Kwale Garissa Garissa Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Meru Laikipia Nyeri Meru Makueni Nyeri 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of cattle was fair in 35 of ASAL counties and good in 65 while 22 recorded fair body condition of goats and 78 good. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock species is above normal, which is attributable to improvement in vegetation regeneration, compared to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3. Livestock body condition - June 2023 Cattle Goats - Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Makueni Tharaka Nithi Makueni Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Samburu Mandera Nyeri Wajir Nyeri Embu Tana River Mandera Tana River Baringo Narok Embu West Pokot Kilifi Baringo Garissa Lamu Kilifi Narok Kajiado Lamu Turkana Kajiado Isiolo West Pokot Kitui Isiolo Marsabit Kwale Meru Kitui 1.3.3 Milk production In the majority of counties, there was overall stability and improvement in the trend of milk production in June compared to May. The production is, however, yet to fully stabilise due to decline in tropical livestock units (TLU) and low birth rates attributed to residual effects of livestock mortality experienced during drought. Milk production is expected to increase as the birth rate of small stock increases following improved body condition. The milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties are shown on Table 4. Table 4. Milk production - June 2023 Milk Garissa Kwale Baringo Meru Embu Baringo Production Isiolo Meru Embu Isiolo Marsabit Garissa Laikipia Taita Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Kwale Makueni West Pokot Kilifi Mandera Taita Taveta Laikipia Turkana Kitui Kajiado Turkana Narok Lamu Kitui West Pokot Samburu Mandera Lamu Tana River Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Makueni 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth (FMD) disease. 1.3.5 Cattle prices A majority of ASAL counties (60) recorded above-average cattle prices, especially Isiolo, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Wajir, Kwale, Narok and Samburu. The current cattle prices are below normal in Kajiado and Taita Taveta counties compared to similar periods during a normal year. Embu and Makueni recorded worsening trends as illustrated in Table 5 as farmers disposed of animals to pay school fees. Table 5: Cattle prices - June 2023 Above Long At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Term Average (LTA) Cattle Kwale Baringo Kajiado Isiolo Baringo Embu Prices Lamu Embu Taita Kajiado Garissa Makueni Garissa Kilifi Taveta Laikipia Kilifi Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Kitui Mandera Narok Meru Lamu Meru West Wajir Mandera Samburu Pokot Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta Makueni Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kitui West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Prices of goats were higher in most of the ASAL counties (78) compared to the long-term average, which was attributed to good performance of the long rains. Majority of counties experienced a stable trend as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6: Goat prices - June 2023 Goat Baringo Garissa Embu Isiolo Baringo Embu Prices Kitui Kajiado Taita Taveta Kwale Samburu Kilifi Garissa Narok Taita Taveta Kitui Laikipia Laikipia Lamu Nyeri Makueni Mandera West Pokot Tharaka Marsabit Makueni Nithi Meru Samburu Wajir Tharaka Tana River West Pokot Nithi Wajir Isiolo Turkana Kilifi 1.4 Crop production Table 7 summarises the current state of crop production in the Coastal Marginal Agriculture and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. Table 7: Current status of crop production. Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Kilifi Early planted maize and green grams were ready for harvest, while Agriculture most farms recorded varied maize development stages from knee- high to grain-filling stage. Harvesting of green maize crop. Minimal harvest of pineapples from Magarini. Kwale Weeding was ongoing across the county, with three main crops planted being maize, cowpeas and green grams. South East Kitui Majority of crops were at harvesting stage and in fair condition. Marginal Makueni Green grams and cowpeas had performed fairly while maize Agriculture registered total crop failure. Tharaka Crop conditions were fair-to-good and at harvesting stage for Nithi legumes while cereal crops were at ripening stage. Most farmers were harvesting and threshing for pulses while preparation for harvesting was underway for cereals. Embu Crop in both livelihood zones was ready for harvesting. Harvesting of green grams, beans and cowpeas was complete. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices in all ASALs were above the long term average (LTA) since farmers are yet to harvest. 15 counties (65 ) experienced a stable trend in maize prices. These include Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Lamu, Marsabit, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Meru, Samburu,Tharaka Nithi,Turkana and Mandera. However, eight counties recorded a worsening trend in maize prices as illustrated in Table 8. Table 8: Maize prices - June 2023 Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening to LTA Maize Embu Garissa Baringo Prices Kilifi Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Kajiado L a ikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Makueni Tana River Wajir Narok Tharaka Nithi Lamu Nyeri Wajir Marsabit Tana River West Pokot Embu West Pokot Baringo Kilifi Garissa Kwale Isiolo Meru Kajiado Samburu Kitui Tharaka Nithi Lamu Mandera Samburu 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 10 counties are currently below the long term average. Compared to the previous month, there was a general improvement in distances to water sources for households. Distances to household water access in arid counties (pastoral) ranged between 2.5 kilometres for Isiolo (which recorded lowest) and 7.6 km for Mandera, which had the highest distances. Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 km in Laikipia (lowest) and 5.3 km inner North with the highest distance to household water access. Table 9 shows the trend in distances walked by households to access water. Table 9: Trends in main water sources (domestic uses) in June 2023 Distance West Pokot Garissa Baringo Kilifi Baringo Embu from Turkana Lamu Embu Lamu Garissa Isiolo households Taita Taveta Narok Isiolo Makueni Kitui Kajiado to main Tana River Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Kwale water Tharaka Nithi Kitui Taita Laikipia sources Nyeri Makueni Taveta Mandera Meru Mandera Turkana Meru Kwale Marsabit West Pokot Narok Laikipia Samburu Nyeri Kajiado Wajir Samburu 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Trekking distances to water sources from grazing areas was stable compared to May. Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir recorded a worsening trend due to cessation of the rains season and high evaporation. The average trekking distances for livestock in arid counties ranged between 5 and 11.2 kilometres, with Wajir recording lowest and Mandera the highest distance. Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.5 and 7.9 kilometres, with Kilifi recording the lowest and Meru the highest. Table 10 shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 10: Trends in main water sources (livestock use) in June 2023 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Distance Kajiado Narok Baringo Kilifi Embu Baringo from Laikipia Kitui Embu Kwale Lamu Garissa livestock Meru Garissa Kilifi Narok Makueni Isiolo grazing area Nyeri Kwale Tharaka Nithi Samburu Kajiado to main Taita Lamu Taita Kitui water Taveta Makueni Taveta Laikipia sources Tana River Mandera West Pokot Mandera Turkana Marsabit Marsabit West Pokot Samburu Meru Tharaka Nyeri Nithi Tana River 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade trends in June, specifically the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties, fell below the long term average due to diminished household purchasing power. The decline was attributable to high prices of food commodities in local markets. Nevertheless, an improvement was observed in Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit and Meru while the trend in nine other counties was stable as shown in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in June 2023 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of Trade Kilifi Baringo Isiolo Kitui Baringo (ToT) Mandera Embu Kajiado Wajir Embu Garissa Kilifi Turkana Laikipia Kitui Kwale Taita Taveta Makueni Kwale Mandera West Pokot Narok Makueni Marsabit Samburu Nyeri Meru Meru Lamu Tana River West Pokot 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 12 illustrates the variation in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties based on middle-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) measurement. 18 counties recorded MUAC values above long term average, which can be attributed to high commodity prices, low purchasing power as well as inadequate dietary diversity, suboptimal child feeding practices, and decreased overall food intake at household level. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) - June 2023 (18) (2) (3) (9) (12) (2) Baringo Embu Kilifi Embu Baringo Narok MUAC Nyeri Lamu Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Garissa Nyeri Kajiado West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Wajir Wajir Kilifi Mandera Taita Taveta Kwale Tana River Makueni Laikipia Marsabit Kitui Lamu Turkana Meru Mandera Meru Samburu Marsabit Kitui Tana River Samburu Turkana Garissa West Pokot Kwale 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of indicators monitored above, 19 counties including Embu, Lamu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru, Makueni and Narok are in the Normal drought phase, while Taita Taveta is in the Alert drought phase. Isiolo, Marsabit and Kwale are in Recovery phase. Six counties reported an improving trend in June, while another 15 recorded a stable trend and two counties reported a worsening trend. Table 13 summarises the drought phase classification as at the end of June 2023. Table 13: Drought phase classification - June 2023 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Embu, Lamu, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Narok, Makueni Kajiado Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Alert Taita Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Isiolo, Kwale 3.0 Recommendations a) Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and regular cash transfers targeting food insecure. b) Livestock sector: Facilitating safe migration for pastoralists moving back to their settlements; and treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. c) Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of water treatment tablets; and procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment rainwater harvesting. d) Health and nutrition sector: Support to hygiene and sanitation promotion; and sustained mass screening and referrals. e) Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. f) Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource use agreements; and coordination of peace and security activities in conflict- prone counties. g) Coordination: Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought risk management activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th June 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category month month (3-month) as at as at 50 Vegetation greenness above 28th 30th normal May June 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 2023 2023 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 50.49 56.6 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June. Central 77.16 71.88 This was an improvement compared to May. North 65.13 62.12 South 37.93 53.24 Ravine 91.77 77.73 Mogotio 24.33 45.22 Tiaty 44.27 52.17 MANDERA County -26.08 34.65 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to Lafey -32.96 30.45 moderate vegetation deficit from extreme deficit in June. North -37.19 30.79 Banissa -28.14 26.51 West -16.01 37.37 South -19.06 44.26 East -20.65 34.33 TURKANA County 29.85 41.81 The county recorded an improvement in the vegetation East 12.45 28.95 greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation South 13.25 35.7 greenness during the month of June. Loima 18.3 41.07 Central 11.53 34.12 West 39.85 49.42 North 50.06 48.51 MARSABIT County 8.68 35.18 The county recorded great improvement in the vegetation cover Laisamis 9.87 35.12 from extreme vegetation deficit in May to normal vegetation Moyale 5.15 32.75 greenness in June. North Horr 8.87 35.09 Saku 9.35 48.65 WAJIR County 3.73 39.42 The county recorded great improvement in the vegetation cover Tarbaj -5.39 45.48 from extreme vegetation deficit in May to normal vegetation North 6.32 42.8 greenness in June. Wajir West recorded above normal vegetation -5.67 greenness. South 29.66 West 30.78 54.77 Eldas 24.37 48.86 -14.85 East 30.27 SAMBURU County 7.13 31.77 The county recorded an improving trend in vegetation greenness East -2.53 26.56 from extreme vegetation deficit to moderate deficit in June. North 13.03 34.22 West 26.39 44.74 GARISSA County 15.86 37.42 The county experienced an improvement in vegetation condition Balambala 6.46 24.38 from severe vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness in Township 34.23 35.39 June. Great improvements were noted in Balambala, Daadab and 65.5 Fafi sub-counties. Ijara 58.99 Fafi 8.33 30.71 Lagdera 20.86 45.81 Dadaab -23.57 29.01 ISIOLO County 13.56 38.74 The county and all subcounties noted an improvement in North 15.1 35.25 vegetation condition from severe vegetation deficit to normal South 11.2 44.08 vegetation greenness in June. TANA RIVER County -5.18 28.96 The county and two subcounties recorded improvement in Bura -11.17 22.31 vegetation greenness from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Galole -16.78 26.06 Garsen 7.17 36.42 KAJIADO County 51.49 47.21 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness while Kajiado Central 90.99 61.83 Central, North and West showed above normal vegetation East 11.82 34.92 greenness. North 77.18 70.01 South 10.18 31.45 West 79.18 56.52 LAIKIPIA County 13.9 40.91 The vegetation condition in the County and sub counties East 18.07 45.08 improved to normal vegetation greenness from severe vegetation North 12.07 37.06 deficit. West 15.32 46.1 THARAKA County 39.98 53.33 The county recorded an improvement to above normal NITHI Chuka 52.96 62.48 vegetation greenness from normal, with Tharaka subcounty Maara 103.81 80.59 showing great improvement from severe deficit to normal Tharaka 14.69 41.17 vegetation greenness. WEST County 44.61 49.21 The county recorded stability at normal vegetation greenness, POKOT Kacheliba 33.27 43.12 with Kacheliba subcounty registering improvement to normal Kapenguria 49.51 51.24 greenness from moderate deficit. Pokot South 67.98 63.63 Sigor 47.30 50.04 EMBU County 24.64 51.61 The county recorded an improvement to above normal Manyatta 91.95 79.38 vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit. Mbeere Mbeere 0.04 41.84 South and North sub counties registered the greatest North improvement. Mbeere 3.23 42.53 Runyenjes 84.45 76.31 County 12.76 42.63 The County recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to Kitui Central 38.72 64.4 normal greenness. Kitui Central, Rural and West registered the Kitui East 1.83 47.3 greatest improvement to above normal vegetation greenness. KITUI Kitui Rural 60.82 72.33 Kitui South 24.1 42.54 Kitui West 39.49 57.13 Mwingi -8.32 38.47 Mwingi -2.68 31.49 Mwingi West 1.83 39.93 County 47.51 59.32 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to Kaiti 70.35 80.9 above normal vegetation greenness from normal vegetation MAKUENI Kibwezi East 61.25 54.19 greenness, with Kilome showing the greatest improvement. Kibwezi West 27.41 48.68 Kilome -3.42 47.02 Makueni 68.52 72.58 Mbooni 57.97 74.43 MERU County 53.16 56.6 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to Buuri 82.54 62.92 above normal vegetation greenness. Igembe Central, North and Central 115.28 78.49 South sub counties showed the greatest improvement. Imenti Igembe 8.07 45.39 Igembe -9.83 33.4 Igembe 8.4 45.58 North Imenti 105.42 74.88 South Imenti 127.14 87.07 Tigania East 43.49 50.65 Tigania West 82.24 64.39 County 100.29 80.35 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation NYERI Kieni 95.29 76.5 condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during Mathira 115.98 90.87 the month of June. Mukurweini 110.62 91.12 Nyeri Town 115.67 87.54 Othaya 88.2 75.83 Tetu 105.79 82.64 County 29.1 46.58 The vegetation condition in the county improved to normal KILIFI Ganze 48.48 51.89 vegetation greenness, with Kilifi North registering moderate Kaloleni 41.32 54.18 vegetation deficit. Kilifi North -9.41 34.17 Kilifi South 21.8 47.62 Magarini 25.6 44.77 Malindi 11.66 44.98 Rabai 32.71 53.37 KWALE County 72.6 64.58 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation Kinango 79.15 67.58 condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the Lunga 70.00 62.24 month of June. Matuga 61.29 60.3 Msambweni 35.33 50.8 LAMU County 66.78 69.65 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation Lamu East 68.33 68.48 condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the Lamu West 65.89 70.33 month of June. ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT TAITA County 14.66 32.13 The county improved to moderate vegetation deficit in June. TAVETA Mwatate -6.56 25.6 Taveta -18.58 23.38 Voi 35.55 37.98 Wundanyi 5.82 28.91 County 112.29 80.72 The county and all sub counties recorded stability in vegetation NAROK Emurua Dikirr 84.49 68.54 condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the Kilgoris 108.17 73.81 month of June. Narok East 60.64 65.97 Narok North 84.95 76.33 Narok South 121.52 84.1 Narok West 141.73 89.71 Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of Examples of indicators Types of impact indicator monitored Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and Distances to water water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification",
            "July_2023.pdf": "NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN JULY 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The 2023 long rains that ended in May had positive impacts, including reversing the adverse effects of the drought experienced in the past five seasons. Twenty-one (21) of the 23 ASAL counties reported normal drought phase during the month of July while one (Taita Taveta) was classfified in Alert drought phase and another (Marsabit) in Recovery phase. The 21 counties in Normal phase include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Isiolo, Turkana and West Pokot. Figure 1 shows drought phase classification for the month of July 2023. Figure 1: Drought phase classification in July 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 July 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the July 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received trace rainfall amounts. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received amounts of rainfall at 1mm. The Pastoral North west counties, including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu, received considerable amounts of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 5mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received low rainfall Figure 2: July 2023 Rainfall Performance amounts in July ranging between 1mm to 10mm whereas Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts during the month ranging between 1mm to 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received low amounts ranging between 11mm to 75mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for August 2023 The rainfall outlook for August is illustrated in Figure 3. About 90 of the ASALs are forecasted to be under generally sunny and dry conditions. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions with counties such as Embu and Tharaka Nithi experiencing periodic chilly and overcast with light The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions and periodically chilly and overcast with light rains for counties bordering Mt. Kenya and Aberdare ranges. The coastal marginal agriculture counties including Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to receive near-average Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Figure 3: August 2023 Rainfall forecast Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) are forecated to experience generally sunny and dry conditions while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are forecated to experience below normal rainfall to generally sunny and dry conditions. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for August 2023. 1.2 Vegetation Condition The month of July 2023 indicated enormous improvement in vegetation condition across the ASALs compared to June. The improvement is attributed to cumulative effects of March to May rainfall season and moisture condition improvement. One county, Taita Taveta, has Moderate vegetation deficit hence need for close monitoring and contingency planning. Six (6) counties including West Pokot, Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Tana River and Kajiado, recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Sixteen (16) counties including Baringo, Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions in June and July 2023 The vegetation condition in July 2023 is better as compared to June 2023 as shown in Figure 4. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of July 2023 is provided in Table 14. The overall VCI for each county disaggregated by subcounty is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Summarised Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), July 2023 Category County Subcounties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe vegetation deficit (0) (0) Moderate vegetation deficit (1) (7) Taita Taveta Mandera (Banissa), Samburu (East), Garissa (Balambala), Kajiado (Central, East), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi), Normal vegetation (6) (24) greenness West Pokot, Baringo (Tiaty), Turkana (East, South, North), Marsabit (Laisamis, Turkana, Moyale), Samburu (North), Garissa (Township, Ijara, Fafi), Isiolo Samburu, (North), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (South, West), Laikipia (East, Laikipia, Tana North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Kitui (Mwingi North), Makueni River and (Kibwezi East), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini), Kwale (Msambweni), Taita Kajiado Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta), Above normal Vegetation (16) (82) greenness Baringo, Narok, Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine, Mogotio), Mandera (Lafey, Makueni, Kitui, North, South, West, East), Turkana (Loima, Central, West), Marsabit Embu, Tharaka (North Horr, Saku), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Nithi, Nyeri, Samburu (West), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab), Isiolo (South), Tana Meru, Isiolo, River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (North), Laikipia (West), Tharaka Marsabit, Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot Mandera, Wajir, South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Garissa, Lamu, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Kilifi and Kwale Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe central, Igembe north, Igembe south, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania east, Tigania west), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kaloleni, North, South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga lunga, Matuga), Lamu (East, West), Narok (East, West, North, South, Kilgoris, Emurua dikirr) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture and browse condition was good in 52 of ASAL counties as shown in Table 2. The current conditions are above normal compared to normal years, with stability in pasture condition compared to June. Stabilised forage condition is attributable to above-normal rains received in the last season. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition - July 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Baringo Kajiado Baringo Kajiado Isiolo Kitui Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Laikipia Isiolo Makueni Kitui Makueni Kilifi Mandera Kwale Mandera Kwale West Pokot Lamu West Pokot Lamu Narok Marsabit Narok Marsabit Nyeri Meru Nyeri Meru Samburu Tana River Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Turkana Wajir 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for cattle was fair at 30 and good at 70 in the ASAL counties while body condition for goats was fair at 26 and good at 74 Generally, the body condition of most livestock was above normal compared to similar periods in a normal year due to improvement in vegetation as shown in Table 3. Table 3: Livestock body condition - July 2023 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Embu Baringo Kitui Isiolo Narok Garissa Embu Kajiado Nyeri Isiolo Narok Kilifi Taita Taveta Kajiado Nyeri Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Turkana Kwale Turkana Lamu Laikipia Makueni Lamu Mandera Makueni Marsabit Mandera Meru Marsabit Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir Wajir 1.3.3 Milk production In the majority of counties, there was slight deterioration in the trend of milk production in July compared to the previous month of June. Eight counties showed an improving trend, except Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi and Turkana, which experienced a worsening trend. Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni and Turkana counties, on the other hand, had milk production levels above the normal range. However, its important to note that the current milk production status in 15 of the 23 counties is below the average for a normal year. The details of milk production trend in the 23 ASAL counties are in table 4. Table 4: Milk production - July 2023 Milk Garissa Wajir Baringo Kilifi Baringo Isiolo Production Isiolo Laikipia Embu Kwale Embu Kajiado Kwale Kajiado Lamu Garissa Kitui Lamu Kilifi Marsabit Mandera Laikipia Meru Kitui Meru West Pokot Makueni Turkana Makueni Narok Nyeri Mandera Tana River Samburu Marsabit Wajir Taita Taveta Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Turkana West Pokot 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and Foot and Mouth. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties (57) in the ASAL region experienced above-average cattle prices. The cattle prices were below normal in Nyeri and Taita Taveta counties compared to similar periods during a normal year. A positive trend was observed in the majority of the counties, including Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir. However, Lamu and Meru recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in July 2023 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Embu Baringo Nyeri Garissa Baringo Lamu Prices Garissa Kajiado Taita Isiolo Embu Meru Isiolo Kilifi Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Kitui Laikipia Kwale Makueni Kwale Makueni Lamu Narok Nyeri Mandera Mandera Turkana Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Marsabit West Turkana Narok Meru Pokot Wajir Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices The prices of goats in most of the ASAL counties were higher at 86 compared to the long- term average. Majority of counties experienced a stable trend, except for Kitui, Lamu and Nyeri counties, which reported a worsening trend. In Table 6, it is evident that Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. Table 6: Goat prices in July 2023 Goat Baringo Garissa Nyeri Kajiado Baringo Kitui Prices Embu Lamu Kilifi Embu Lamu Kitui Mandera Garissa Nyeri Samburu Meru Isiolo Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Laikipia Turkana Makueni Makueni Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Kwale Taita Taveta Wajir Narok Tana River West Pokot Wajir Isiolo West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kwale 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. The coastal cluster counties of Kilifi and Kwale are yet to complete harvesting. Table 7 summarises the state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Kilifi Long rains crop harvest continued across the livelihood zone. Marginal Maize, green grams and cowpeas were the main rain-fed crops Agriculture being harvested in the month of July. Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded as supply in the market remained high. Kwale Harvesting of green maize, cowpeas and green grams was ongoing. Rains in the livestock farming livelihood zone ceased earlier than normal, with crops having experienced moisture stress and crop destruction caused by invasion of farms by elephants. South East Kitui -Crops were at harvesting stage with farmers recording below Marginal average harvests. Agriculture -Wilting of maize was reported in most parts due to moisture stress hence little or no harvests realised. Makueni Minimal harvesting of maize was ongoing in the mixed farming livelihood zone. There was total crop failure in the MMF livelihood zone due to late onset and early cessation of the rains. Tharaka Nithi Farmers were harvesting pulses while harvesting was underway for cereals. Embu Harvesting was complete for all the crops (beans, maize, sorghum, green grams) in both livelihood zones 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize Prices in ASALs were above the LTA, except in Garissa which was at LTA. 13 counties (56) experienced a stable trend in maize prices. They include Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Meru, Mandera, Kitui, Laikipia, Narok, Tana River and West Pokot. However, three counties witnessed a worsening trend in maize prices as illustrated in Table Table 8: Maize prices - July 2023 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Embu Garissa Baringo Kajiado N yeri Prices Kilifi Garissa Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Isiolo Wajir Turkana Makueni Lamu Embu Tana River Makueni Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Kwale Wajir Samburu Meru West Pokot Mandera Baringo Kitui Isiolo Laikipia Kajiado Narok Kitui Tana River Kwale West Pokot 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 5 counties was below the LTA. The trend is worsening compared with the previous month. Distances in arid (pastoral) counties ranged between 2.5 and 7.6 km, with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. The distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.8 km to 6.3 km recorded in Laikipia and Kajiado counties respectively. 13 counties, including Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir, showed a worsening trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in July 2023 Distance from Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kwale Garissa Baringo households to Laikipia Embu Kilifi Meru Isiolo Embu main water Meru Kwale Kitui Kitui Kajiado sources Narok Lamu Mandera Lamu Kilifi Nyeri Makueni Marsabit Mandera Laikipia Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Marsabit Tana River West Pokot Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Turkana Samburu Kajiado Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance to water source from grazing areas slightly deteriorated compared to the previous month, with 10 counties registering distances below the LTA. 16 counties recorded a worsening trend. The average trekking distance for livestock in arid counties ranged between 7 and 12.2 km, with Wajir county recording lowest distances and Mandera County highest respectively. The distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 1.7 and 7.3 km in semi-arid counties, with Kilifi recording the lowest and Baringo the highest. Table 10 shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources - July 2023 Distance Baringo Garissa Embu Meru West Pokot Baringo from Laikipia Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Embu livestock Meru Kitui Kilifi Lamu Isiolo grazing area Nyeri Lamu Kwale Makueni Kajiado to main water Taita Taveta Narok Makueni Kitui Kilifi sources Tana River Mandera Garissa Kwale Turkana Marsabit Mandera West Pokot Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Narok Nithi Nyeri Wajir Samburu 1.6 Terms of Trade In July, 19 counties were below the LTA. The trade trends, specifically the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties, fell below the long term average due to the diminished purchasing power of households across ASAL counties. The decline can be attributed to the high prices of commodities. Nevertheless, an encouraging improvement was observed in 12 counties namely; Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir. Two counties registered worsening state as shown in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade - July 2023 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of Garissa Baringo Baringo Garissa Nyeri trade (ToT) Kilifi Embu Embu Kwale Kitui Kitui Kwale Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Makueni Kajiado Lamu Meru Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Mandera Samburu Samburu Marsabit Taita Taita Taveta Meru Taveta Tharaka Nithi Narok Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot West Pokot Turkana Kajiado Wajir Isiolo 1.7 Health and Nutrition Twenty-one (21) counties recorded above long term average of the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (based on middle-upper- arm measurements MUAC values). This can be attributed to decreased milk production, resulting in reduced milk consumption at household level, as well as inadequate dietary diversity, suboptimal child feeding practices, and decreased overall food intake within households. The trend worsened in three counties including Kajiado, Kilifi and Turkana as illustrated in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2023 Baringo Embu Tharaka Baringo Laikipia Kajiado Kajiado Lamu Nithi Garissa Lamu Kilifi MUAC Kilifi West-Pokot Isiolo Mandera Turkana Kitui Marsabit Kwale Tana River Kwale Meru Marsabit West Pokot Laikipia Samburu Meru Wajir Makueni Garissa Narok Taita-Taveta Mandera Isiolo Samburu Makueni Nyeri Meru Tharaka-Nithi Kitui Taita Taveta Narok Nyeri Tana River Embu 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Table 13 sums the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of July 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, 21 counties including Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Isiolo, Turkana and West Pokot are in the Normal drought phase, while Taita Taveta is in the Alert phase and Marsabit in Recovery. During the month under review, two counties reported an improving trend, 13 counties recorded a stable trend, while eight counties reported a worsening trend. The drought has continued to worsen in one county (Taita Taveta). Table 13: Drought phase classification - July 2023 Drought Trend status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Taita Taveta, Alarm - - - Emergency - - - Recovery Marsabit - - 3.0 Recommendations i) Food and safety nets: Sustaining food aid and cash transfers to the population identified as requiring humanitarian assistance in the 2023 Long Rains Assessment. ii) Livestock sector: Promoting fodder productions and storage; stimulating local livestock markets and other value chains to function optimally; treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. iii) Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of water treatment tabs; development of roof catchments in institutions and rock catchments. iv) Health and nutrition sector: Support on hygiene and sanitation promotion; sustaining mass screening and referrals; pre-positioning the supply commodities in local facilities. v) Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; support to school bursaries. vi) Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter community peace dialogue and resource use agreements; coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. vii) Coordination: Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th July 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month month values as at as at (3-month) 30th 30th 50 Vegetation greenness above June July normal 2023 2023 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 56.6 55.93 Central 71.88 69.95 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July. North 62.12 64.17 South 53.24 57.86 Ravine 77.73 64.65 Mogotio 45.22 51.95 Tiaty 52.17 49.24 MANDERA County 34.65 60.94 Improvement in vegetation cover from moderate vegetation deficit to Lafey 30.45 65.1 above normal vegetation greenness. North 30.79 54.75 Banissa 26.51 32.31 West 37.37 51.3 South 44.26 86.88 East 34.33 70.57 TURKANA County 41.81 46.68 Stability in the vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness East 28.95 34.64 during the month of July. South 35.7 45.8 Loima 41.07 53.68 Central 34.12 51.94 West 49.42 54.41 North 48.51 43.03 MARSABIT County 35.18 51.36 Improved vegetation cover from normal vegetation greenness in June to Laisamis 35.12 49.69 above normal vegetation greenness in July. Moyale 32.75 43.08 North Horr 35.09 52.85 Saku 48.65 79.49 WAJIR County 39.42 63.54 Improvement in the vegetation cover from normal vegetation greenness Tarbaj 45.48 76.89 in June to above normal vegetation greenness in July. North 42.8 63.71 South 29.66 53.13 West 54.77 77.42 Eldas 48.86 72.89 East 30.27 54.82 SAMBURU County 31.77 36.42 Improving trend in vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation East 26.56 32.8 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. North 34.22 36.7 West 44.74 50.42 GARISSA County 37.42 51.12 Improved vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness to Balambala 24.38 31.44 above normal vegetation greenness. Township 35.39 35.12 Ijara 58.99 48.58 Fafi 30.71 42.75 Lagdera 45.81 77.3 Dadaab 29.01 63.48 ISIOLO County 38.74 55.81 Improvement in vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness North 35.25 48.64 to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. South 44.08 66.77 TANA RIVER County 28.96 46.57 The county and two of its sub counties noted improvement in vegetation Bura 22.31 39.8 greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation Galole 26.06 50.12 greenness, with Galole and Garsen recording above normal vegetation Garsen 36.42 50.11 greenness. KAJIADO County 47.21 35.58 The county recorded vegetation greenness at normal. However, Kajiado Central 61.83 30.99 Central and East recorded moderate vegetation deficit. East 34.92 31.74 North 70.01 52.85 South 31.45 36.37 West 56.52 38.81 LAIKIPIA County 40.91 47.35 The County and its sub counties improved to normal vegetation East 45.08 47.2 greenness from severe vegetation deficit. North 37.06 42.01 West 46.1 57.42 THARAKA County 53.33 61.06 Stability recorded in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation NITHI Chuka 62.48 72.81 greenness in July. Maara 80.59 73.69 Tharaka 41.17 52.6 WEST County 49.21 49.82 The county recorded stability at normal vegetation greenness. However, POKOT Kacheliba 43.12 41 Kapenguria, Pokot South and Sigor recorded above normal vegetation Kapenguria 51.24 55.86 greenness. Pokot south 63.63 67.51 Sigor 50.04 50.29 EMBU County 51.61 70.18 Stability recorded in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation Manyatta 79.38 77.58 greenness during the month under review. Mbeere north 41.84 69.5 Mbeere south 42.53 65.2 Runyenjes 76.31 82.1 KITUI County 42.63 60.95 The County recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to above Kitui central 64.4 82.05 normal vegetation greenness in July. Kitui east 47.3 83.97 Kitui rural 72.33 81.63 Kitui south 42.54 53.81 Kitui west 57.13 62.48 Mwingi central 38.47 68.9 Mwingi north 31.49 45.7 Mwingi west 39.93 54.49 MAKUENI County 59.32 63.14 Stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in Kaiti 80.9 77.26 July compared to June. Kibwezi east 54.19 45.82 Kibwezi west 48.68 57.98 Kilome 47.02 64.3 Makueni 72.58 79.94 Mbooni 74.43 81.5 MERU County 56.6 63.8 Stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 62.92 61.88 Central Imenti 78.49 69.64 Igembe central 45.39 69.91 Igembe north 33.4 54.12 Igembe south 45.58 72.14 North Imenti 74.88 74.77 South Imenti 87.07 72.23 Tigania east 50.65 55.69 Tigania west 64.39 56.74 NYERI County 80.35 73.12 Stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in Kieni 76.5 68.65 July. Mathira 90.87 82.71 Mukurweini 91.12 87.57 Nyeri town 87.54 77.97 Othaya 75.83 69.83 Tetu 82.64 77.77 KILIFI County 46.58 50.33 The vegetation condition in the county improved to above vegetation Ganze 51.89 47.24 greenness in July from normal vegetation greenness. Kaloleni 54.18 58.4 Kilifi north 34.17 52.81 Kilifi south 47.62 51.75 Magarini 44.77 49.53 Malindi 44.98 59.36 Rabai 53.37 54.79 KWALE County 64.58 61.29 The county and all its sub counties recorded stable vegetation condition Kinango 67.58 61.01 at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Lunga 62.24 66.27 Matuga 60.3 58.01 Msambweni 50.8 48.7 LAMU County 69.65 72.24 The county and all its sub counties recorded stable vegetation condition Lamu east 68.48 65.74 at above normal vegetation greenness condition in July. Lamu west 70.33 75.99 TAITA County 32.13 35 The county improved to normal vegetation greenness from moderate TAVETA Mwatate 25.6 38.71 vegetation deficit during the month under review. Taveta 23.38 38.66 Voi 37.98 32.7 Wundanyi 28.91 31.26 NAROK County 80.72 64.63 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation Emurua Dikirr 68.54 71.65 condition at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Kilgoris 73.81 56.89 Narok east 65.97 65.79 Narok north 76.33 66.27 Narok south 84.1 62.98 Narok west 89.71 68.17 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Table 16: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification",
            "August_2023.pdf": "AUGUST 2023 1.Drought Situation Overview Despite the notable recovery attributed to the impacts of March to May (MAM) rains in Arid and Semi- Arid counties. The recovery is yet to be registered fully. Currently, one (1) county reported recovery phase, and nineteen (19) counties reported normal drought phase situation. Drought situation thus remains alert in three (3) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of August 2023. The number of people in need of assistance stands at 2.8 Million currently following long rains (LRA) 2023 food security assessment. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, August, 2023 Three counties (3) including; Samburu, Kajiado and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. Nineteen (19) counties namely; Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, West Pokot and Isiolo are in Normal drought phase. One (1) county; Marsabit is in the Recovery drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 653,500 children aged 6 to 59 months and 142,900 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of August 2023. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 August 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the August 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received quite less amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received rainfall amounts ranging between 1mm to 25mm. The Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received considerable amount of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Figure 2. August 2023 Rainfall Performance Makueni and Kitui counties received low rainfall amounts during the month of August ranging between 1mm to 25mm whereas Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts during the month of August ranging between mm to 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received low amounts ranging between 26mm to 100mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for September 2023 The rainfall outlook for the month of September is illustrated in figure 3. Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) is forecasted to receive Near to above average rainfall (rainfall likely at end of the forecast period). Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions with counties like Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasting to receive near to below average rainfall. The AgroPastoral Figure 3. September 2023 Rainfall forecast livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience generally receive near to below average rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to Near to above average rainfall (rainfall likely at end of the forecast period) are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are near to below average rainfall. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for September 2023. 1.1.3. Flooding Flooding was noted in Samburu County and the assessment is being conducted to estimate the damage caused by flooding. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 4 indicates the trends in the vegetation condition index (VCI) for the month of July and that of August 2023. Marginal change in the month of August was noted where three counties depicted changes in VCI values. July 2023 August 2023 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of July and August The month of August 2023 indicated slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of July 2023. The deterioration in vegetation condition is associated with the ongoing dry season after ceased long rains season. This dry season has led to drop in vegetation greenness since soil moisture has decreased. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Three (3) counties including; Taita Taveta, Kajiado and Samburu recorded moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following eight (8) counties including; West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, and Tana River recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twelve (12) counties including; Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in August 2023 worsened when compared to the previous month, July 2023 as shown in (Figure 4). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of August 2023 is provided in Figure 4. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation deficit Moderate (3) (17) vegetation Samburu, Kajiado, Mandera (Banissa, West), Turkana (East, North), Samburu deficit Taita Taveta (East, North), Garissa (Balambala, Township), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South), Laikipia (East, North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi) Normal (8) (34) vegetation West Pokot, Baringo (Mogotio, Tiaty), Mandera (Lafey, North), Turkana greenness Turkana, Baringo, (South, Loima, West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Wajir Laikipia, Marsabit, (South, East), Samburu (West), Garissa (Ijara, Fafi), Tana Mandera, Garissa, River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (North, West), Laikipia Tana River, (West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) West Pokot (Kapenguria, Sigor), Embu (Mbeere South), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi east), Meru (Igembe north, Tigania east, Tigania west), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta), Narok (Kilgoris) Above (12) (62) normal Narok, Makueni, Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine), Mandera (South, Vegetation Kitui, Nyeri, Embu, East), Turkana (Central), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Wajir greenness Tharaka Nithi, Meru, (Tarbaj, North, West, Eldas), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab), Isiolo, Wajir, Kilifi, Isiolo (North, South), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Kwale, and Lamu Pokot (Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere north, Runyenjes), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui rural, Kitui South, Kitui West, Mwingi Central), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi west, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, West), Narok (Emurua Dikir, East, North, South, West) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Deterioration in the condition of forage with respect to the previous month was noted across majority of the ASAL counties with about 70 percent reporting the condition of pasture and browse to be fair (Table 2). The witnessed pasture and browse level was within the normal level for the month of August save for a few counties like Samburu, Kajiado and Taita Taveta. Observed forage condition deterioration across the period under review could be attributed to the prevailing dry and hot weather conditions that dominated most parts of the ASALs. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2023 Pasture Browse Baringo, Isiolo Embu (Mbeere) Baringo Meru Kilifi Garissa, Isiolo Embu (Mbeere) Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Garissa, Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kitui, Lamu Kitui, Kwale Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Wajir Makueni, Mandera West Pokot Makueni, Marsabit Meru, Kwale Mandera, Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Taita Taveta Narok, M arsabit West Pokot Tana River Narok Turkana Nyeri Nyeri 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock was generally fair across most counties (60 percent) while that of goats and sheep was good in about 82 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 3). Estimated 40 percent of the counties reported the body condition of cattle as being good while 18 percent of the counties indicated the body condition of goat as being equally good. The observed body condition over August was consistent with the one normally observed over the same period normally across most counties and that could be attributed to availability of forage and water within relatively shorter distances. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2023 Catle GoatsSheep Baringo Kilifi Embu Baringo Embu (Mbeere) Lamu (Mbeere) Garissa Garissa Mandera Makueni Isiolo, Kajiado Isiolo Meru Narok Meru Kajiado Samburu N yeri (Kieni) Kilifi Kitui Wajir Kitui Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Makueni West Pokot Lamu West Narok Kwale Pokot Nyeri (Kieni) Marsabit Mandera Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Turkana Kwale 1.3.3 Milk production Stability in the level of milk produced was noted during the month under review with respect to the previous month. Approximately 18, 55, and 27 percent of the counties reported an improving, stable and worsening trend respectively. Milk produced over August was above, at par and below the long-term average (LTA) in about 59 and 32 percent of the counties (Table 4). Factors driving the observed stability included availability of forage and water in most counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2023 Milk Mandera Baringo Kajiado Baringo Garissa, Samburu Production Turkana Embu Kilifi Kitui Kilifi Tana River Garissa Makueni Makueni Lamu Isiolo Isiolo Samburu Tharaka Mandera Kajiado Kitui Taita Nithi Meru Kwale Kwale Taveta Marsabit Narok Laikipia Laikipia Tana Nyeri Lamu River Taita Meru Tharaka Taveta Narok Nithi Turkana Nyeri Marsabit Wajir Pokot Embu 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Endemic diseases were reported in Garissa, Kajiado, Samburu, Laikipia, Narok and Tana River. The diseases included suspected cases of Sheep and Goat Pox, Q-Fever in goats, Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia, Lumpy Skin Disease, Peste Des Petits Ruminants, and Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia, Trypanosomiasis, Foot Rot, Rabies and Orf. Besides that, a unique condition suspected to be either swayback syndrome or Molybdenum poisoning (toxicity) was experienced in various parts of Samburu County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties constituting 64 percent recorded above-average cattle prices with about 18 percent apiece reporting prices that were at par with the usual prices and below the respective normal prices accordingly (Table 5). Generally, stability in the price of cattle across most counties was noted and that could be attributed to the stable body condition occasioned by forage and water availability. However, a negative trend was evident in Kwale and Nyeri driven by the deteriorating body condition. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2023 or Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Baringo Kajiado Kitui Baringo Embu Kwale Prices Embu Makueni Laikipia Isiolo Garissa Nyeri Garissa Narok Nyeri Kilifi Kajiado Isiolo West Taita Lamu Kitui Kilifi Pokot Taveta Meru Laikipia Kwale Mandera Makueni Mandera Tharaka Narok Meru Nithi Samburu Samburu Marsabit Taita Kitui Taveta Tana Tana River River Turkana Wajir Wajir Tharaka West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices A stable with a tendency to improve in the market price of goat was witnessed across most ASAL counties during the month under review. Only Kwale and Lamu counties reported a declining trend with respect to the prevailing trading price of goat over August. Overall, majority of the counties (90 percent) reported prices that were above the normal price for the period with the exception of Lamu and Nyeri whose prices were below the long-term average. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2023 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Baringo Lamu Baringo Embu, Kwale Embu Nyeri Isiolo Garissa Lamu Garissa Kitui Kajiado Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Kilifi Kilifi Samburu Makueni Kitui Tana River Meru Kwale, Tharaka Narok Laikipia Nithi Nyeri Makueni Turkana Taita Mandera Wajir Taveta Meru Marsabit West Narok Pokot 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture, Agro pastoral and South East marginal agriculture clusters. Table 7 below summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Kwale Harvesting of green maize, cowpeas and green grams was Marginal almost complete and production was above average. Agriculture However, destruction of crops by elephants was noted in some areas. Taita Harvesting was ongoing though the yield was expected to Taveta be below normal. Significant proportion of farmers in the Mixed Farming: Food crop Livestock livelihood zone did not plant due to late onset of the rains and the few who planted crops wilted due to moisture stress. Lamu Crop farmers are currently harvesting green maize and other crops such as green grams. Crop farmers are harvesting maize in all livelihood zones except the fishing zone. South East Kitui The long rains ceased when maize was in a tussling stage Marginal leading to moisture stress which resulted to poor grain Agriculture filling in most parts. Also, the late planted maize had a total crop failure with cow peas attacked by aphids which reduced production significantly. The actual crop production for most crops was 60-100 percent of the long- term average. Makueni Production of maize, green grams and cowpeas had declined by 60, 42 and 34 percent respectively. The decline in production was partly due to early cessation of the long rains and also infestation by Fall Armyworm (FAW) and African Armyworm (AAW). Agropastoral Baringo Harvesting of various crops in the Mixed farming, Agro- pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones was almost being concluded. Incidents of maize crop failure were reported particularly in the Agro-pastoral areas and this was bound to affect the projected maize yield. A number of farms did report infestation by Fall army worms which affected about 45 percent of the total acreage that was put under maize crop. Laikipia Some of the farmers who had planted early reported harvesting of maize although low yields are expected for both due to early cessation of the MAM rains and the poor off season rains of JJA rains and frostbite attacks. Narok Currently, some of crops like maize are at harvesting stage and at germination for beans with the condition being fair due to moisture stress. Moreover, most crops in the Pastoral Livelihood zone have not realized any harvest due to maize crop failure. 1.4.1 Maize prices Decline in the price of maize in relation to the previous month was evident across majority of the counties save for Wajir that recorded an increase over the reference period. Noteworthy, all counties except Garissa reported prices that were above the usual price range in August as illustrated in table 8. Observed trend over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by on-going harvest within the ASALs and other adjacent counties coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8.0: Maize prices, August 2023 or Above LTA Atclose Below Improving Stable Worsening to LTA LTA Maize Baringo Garissa Baringo Garissa Wajir Embu Embu, Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Wajir Kwale,Lamu Mandera Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Kilifi Makueni Turkana Kitui Meru, Taita Kwale Samburu Taveta Laikipia Tana River Lamu Tharaka Nithi Makueni Mandera 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 12 counties is currently above LTA and on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month. In the arid counties, distance to water source is between 2.6 kilometers and 8.4 kilometers with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances to household water access. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranges between 1.6 kilometers and 7.1kilometers(km), with Narok recording lowest and Kajiado recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. 12 counties including Turkana, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Baringo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Tana River, Meru, Makueni and Nyeri indicated a worsening trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2023 Above At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worsening LTA LTA g Distance Kajiado, West Embu, Embu, Baringo Turkana, from Nyeri Pokot Isiolo Baringo Kilifi, Nyeri Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui Mandera, Kajiado Samburu households Meru Lamu, Meru Makueni Taita Taveta to main Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Narok Embu, water Taita Mandera, Nithi Tharaka Garissa Taveta Narok Nithi Baringo Meru sources Tana River Kwale, Narok, West Kajiado Turkana, Wajir Isiolo Pokot Laikipia Makueni Kitui, Lamu Kwale, Tana River Garisssa Makueni Wajir Marsabit Tharaka Tharaka Nithi Nithi Laikipia 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In Comparison to the previous months, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing area worsened in 10 counties with above LTA, while other counties are below LTA and at LTA respectively as depicted in table 10. The counties that reported a worsening trend included: Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Garissa, Narok, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi. The average livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water points in the arid counties was between 7.3 kilometers to 14.4 kilometers with Baringo reporting the lowest and Samburu recording the highest. In the semi-arid counties, the distance was 1.8 kilometers to 7.1 kilometers with Kilifi County recording the lowest and Kajiado County recording the highest distance. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August Distance Kilifi Kajiado Baringo Baringo Garissa Kajiado Garissa Embu Embu Isiolo Garissa Kilifi Tana- livestock Isiolo Kitui River Kajiado Kwale Nyeri grazing area to main Laikipia Makueni water sources Mandera West Pokot Taita Taveta Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade In August, 2023, 87 percent of the counties reported a ToT that was below the respective long-term average depicting a stable trend in relation to the previous month. This is due to high fuel prices that have contributed to high maize prices against low goat prices across the ASAL counties. The counties are Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tan River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot and Kitui. However, compared to the previous period, there has been an improvement in about 78 percent of the counties and these include: Baringo, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Marsabit and West Pokot with the exception of Kajiado County that recorded a deteriorating trend (Table 11). Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, August 2023 Terms of Kilifi Baringo Baringo Garissa Kajiado trade Embu Embu Isiolo (ToT) Garissa Kilifi Tana-River Isiolo Kitui Nyeri Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera West Pokot Meru Meru Narok Narok Nyeri Turkana Samburu Samburu Taita Marsabit Taveta Taita Taveta 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation was on a worsening trend in four counties: Baringo, Garissa, Tana River and Turkana as evidenced by the increase in proportion of children falling within the at risk category. About seven counties reported a stable trend while the situation improved in the remaining nine counties. The worsening trend in the four mentioned counties was as a consequence of reduced milk production hence reduced milk consumption at household level, poor dietary diversity, inadequate food intake, and poor childcare practices. Approximately 55 percent of the counties reported a nutrition situation that was below the usual level for the period under analysis as shown in table Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2023 Kitui, Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Baringo, Kwale, Isiolo Kilifi, Kwale, Garissa MUAC Laikipia Kajiado, Lamu Laikipia, Tana River, Makueni, Marsabit Makueni, Wajir Turkana Mandera, Lamu, Narok Mandera, Marsabit Meru, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru, Nyeri, Narok, Samburu Taita Taita Kwale Tharaka Taveta Taveta, Tharaka- Nithi, Isiolo Tana Nithi River, West- Turkana, Pokot, Wajir, Meru 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, three counties including Kajiado, Samburu and Taita Taveta were classified at the Alert phase and on a worsening trend. Approximately 86 percent of the counties were at the Normal phase of drought with a worsening trend being noted in Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot, and Tana River while stability was reported in 10 counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo and Wajir with only Isiolo reporting an improving trend (Table 13). Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, August 2023 Drought Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteri orating Normal Isiolo Embu, Kilifi, Kwale Lamu, Garissa, Kitui, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Laikipia, Makueni, Nithi, Baringo, Wajir Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot, Tana River Alert Kajiado, Samburu, Taita-Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Marsabit Recommendations Food and safety nets Sustained provision of food assistance and cash transfer to food insecure populations. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists accessing dry season grazing areas. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Management of water facilities Installation of water resource level monitoring levels Development of water harvesting infrastructure especially in schools. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought preparedness, recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th August 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS BARINGO County 55.93 49.08 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the Central 69.95 69.64 month of August. The situation has begun to worsen North 64.17 59.75 South 57.86 52.14 Ravine 64.65 74.16 Mogotio 51.95 43.44 49.24 Tiaty 37.02 MANDERA County The county recorded a depreciation in vegetation cover from above 60.94 44.39 normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 65.1 42.24 North 54.75 38.34 Banissa 32.31 28.69 West 51.3 34.58 South 86.88 66.22 East 70.57 60.75 TURKANA County The county recorded a stability in the vegetation greenness at 46.68 37.71 normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Turkana East 34.64 27.49 East and North has begun to worsen. South 45.8 35.03 Loima 53.68 42.3 Central 51.94 51.59 West 54.41 43.29 North 43.03 33.93 MARSABIT County The county recorded an improvement in the vegetation cover from 51.36 49.26 normal vegetation greenness during the month of June to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July Laisamis 49.69 45.33 Moyale 43.08 40.92 North Horr 52.85 52.06 Saku 79.49 76.98 WAJIR County The county recorded a stability in the vegetation at above normal 63.54 54.87 vegetation greenness during the month of August Tarbaj 76.89 57.34 North 63.71 52.18 South 53.13 48.76 West 77.42 72.58 Eldas 72.89 63.29 East 54.82 44.92 SAMBURU County The county recorded a worsening trend in vegetation greenness 36.42 28.77 from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit East 32.8 26.93 during the month under review North 36.7 27.99 West 50.42 39.1 GARISSA County The county experienced a worsening trend in vegetation condition 51.12 45.29 from above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Balambala and township worsened to moderate Balambala 31.44 25.91 vegetation deficit. Township 35.12 32.35 Ijara 48.58 39.33 Fafi 42.75 37.13 Lagdera 77.3 76.73 Dadaab 63.48 56.05 ISIOLO County The county noted a stability in vegetation condition at normal 55.81 55.84 above vegetation greenness. North 48.64 50.13 South 66.77 64.57 TANA County The county and two of its sub counties noted a stability in RIVER 46.57 40.52 vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. However, Bura noted moderate vegetation Bura 39.8 34.82 deficit. Galole 50.12 43.17 Garsen 50.11 43.69 KAJIADO County The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness from 35.58 32.98 normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of August. Central 30.99 27.66 East 31.74 29.82 North 52.85 47.97 South 36.37 34.5 West 38.81 35.75 LAIKIPIA County The County and its sub counties a stability in vegetation greenness 47.35 35.31 at normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. East 47.2 30.99 North 42.01 28.93 West 57.42 49.34 THARAKA County The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above NITHI 61.06 54.1 normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Chuka 72.81 65.04 Maara 73.69 64.89 Tharaka 52.6 46.53 WEST County The county recorded a stability at normal vegetation greenness. POKOT 49.82 40.72 However, Kacheliba recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kacheliba 41 29.2 Kapenguria 55.86 47.75 Pokot south 67.51 67.06 Sigor 50.29 40.18 EMBU County The county recorded a stability vegetation greenness at above 70.18 56.58 normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Manyatta 77.58 59.08 north 69.5 62.18 south 65.2 49.62 Runyenjes 82.1 67.19 County The County recorded stability in vegetation cover to above normal 60.95 56.8 vegetation greenness during the month of August. Kitui central 82.05 78.09 Kitui east 83.97 81.04 Kitui rural 81.63 76.83 Kitui south 53.81 52.32 KITUI Kitui west 62.48 53.27 Mwingi central 68.9 62.48 Mwingi north 45.7 38.41 Mwingi west 54.49 45.16 63.14 59.91 normal vegetation greenness during the month of August when compared to the last month of July. Kaiti 77.26 82.39 Kibwezi east 45.82 42.2 Kibwezi west 57.98 53.23 MAKUENI Kilome 64.3 63.19 Makueni 79.94 73.08 Mbooni 81.5 82.91 63.8 59.55 normal vegetation greenness during the month of August Buuri 61.88 59.9 Central Imenti 69.64 71.29 Igembe MERU central 69.91 63.27 Igembe north 54.12 49.31 Igembe south 72.14 64.01 North Imenti 74.77 74.55 South Imenti 72.23 73.11 Tigania east 55.69 46.91 Tigania west 56.74 49.06 73.12 64.96 vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness Kieni 68.65 62.15 Mathira 82.71 63.63 Mukurweini 87.57 73.88 NYERI Nyeri town 77.97 57.73 Othaya 69.83 67.41 Tetu 77.77 77.67 County The vegetation condition in the county remained stable at above 50.33 51.45 vegetation greenness during the month of August. Ganze 47.24 48.95 Kaloleni 58.4 64.73 Kilifi north 52.81 58.45 KILIFI Kilifi south 51.75 57.48 Magarini 49.53 48.72 Malindi 59.36 62.9 Rabai 54.79 60.92 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in County 61.29 64.3 Kinango 61.01 63.77 KWALE Lunga Lunga 66.27 67.82 Matuga 58.01 64.75 Msambweni 48.7 52.31 72.24 62.03 LAMU Lamu east 65.74 52.22 Lamu west 75.99 67.7 County The county deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from 35 33.69 normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Mwatate 38.71 36.43 TAITA Taveta 38.66 37.41 TAVETA Voi 32.7 32.01 Wundanyi 31.26 25.82 64.63 54.66 condition during the month of August. Kilgoris worsened to Emurua Dikirr 71.65 65.54 normal vegetation greenness. Kilgoris 56.89 49.26 Narok east 65.79 53.23 NAROK Narok north 66.27 61.53 Narok south 62.98 54.53 Narok west 68.17 53.91 Table 15.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators Types of impact monitored Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long- term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 5.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "September_2023.pdf": "NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained stable in most of the ASAL counties in September 2023. This is attributed to close to normal performance and impacts of March to May (MAM) rains. Currently, 18 counties have reported Normal drought phase while five (5) reported Alert phase and require close monitoring. The number of people requiring relief assistance stands at 2.8 million based on the assessment of the impact of the March to May long rains on food security conducted in July. The five counties in the Alert drought phase are Laikipia, Samburu, Turkana, Tana River and Taita Taveta. The counties in Normal drought phase include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Marsabit, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo. Figure 1 illustrates the drought phase classification for the month of September Figure 1. Drought Phase Classification -September 2023 2023. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 September 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the September 2023 monthly rainfall performance shows that though the October to December short rains season had not started in most ASAL counties, most parts received little amounts of rainfall, particularly the Pastoral Northeast cluster including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa which received between 1mm to 20mm. The Pastoral Northwest counties - Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu - received between 1mm to 50mm while the Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties received near- to-above average rainfall, except Embu and Nyeri which registered below average rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale and Kilifi received below average rainfall while the Figure 2: September 2023 Rainfall Performance Northeast, most of the Southeastern lowlands and the Northwestern region remained dry in September except Machakos which received above average rainfall. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for October 2023 The Pastoral Northeast livelihhod zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir,Tana River and Garissa), Southeast Marginal Agriculture including Machakoes, Makueni, Kitui, Taita-Taveta) and North Western Kenya of (Turkana,Samburu) are likely to experience onset of seasonal rainfall from the third to fourth week of October. The expected total rainfall amounts for Northeast and Southeast lowlands are likely to be above the long-term average for October, while Turkana and Samburu are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be near-to-above long term average amounts for October. The Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado and Narok are likely to experience enhanced rainfall amounts exceeding the long term average for October and are likely to be from the third to fourth week of October. However, rainfall in Narok is likely to continue from September 2023. The coastal marginal agriculture counties including Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale and Tana River are likely to experience enhanced rainfall during the month. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be above the long-term average for October. The rainfall outlook for Figure 3: October 2023 Rainfall Forecast October is shown in Figure 3. 1.1.3. Flooding Enhanced rainfall in most ASAL counties as provided in the outlook is likely to be characterised by localised incidences of flooding in particular zones as indicated in Figure 4. All the 23 ASAL counties have contingency plans in place and NDMA is currently monitoring the key hotspots as the short rains season starts. Figure 4: Flooding hotspots in ASAL counties. 1.2 Vegetation Condition A marginal change was noted in the vegetation condition index (VCI) in some of the ASAL counties during the month of September compared to August 2023, where three counties depicted changes in VCI values as indicated in Figure 5 below. Figure 5: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCI) of August and September 2023 There was slight decline in vegetation condition across the ASALs in September compared to August 2023. The decline is attributed to high temperatures. However, the condition is expected to improve with onset of the October to December short rains season. Nonetheless, none of ASAL counties indicated either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Five (5) counties including Taita Taveta, Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Laikipia reported moderate vegetation deficit, indicating slight deterioration in environmental indicators. Seven (7) counties, Kilifi, Marsabit, Tana River, Narok, Baringo, Garissa and Kajiado, recorded Normal vegetation greenness. 11 counties including Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir and Mandera recorded above normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at the end of September 2023 is as illustrated in Table 1disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in September 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe Vegetation Deficit (0) (1) Laikipia North Moderate Vegetation Deficit (5) (19) Samburu, Taita Samburu (East, North, West), Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Taveta, Turkana, Bura, Turkana ( East, South, North), Kacheliba, Sigor, West Pokot, Mogotio, Tiaty, Balambala, Garissa Township, Kajiado Laikipia (Central, East), Laikipia East Normal Vegetation (7) (30) Greenness Baringo, Garissa, Baringo South, Ijara, Fafi, Kajiado (South, West), Kajiado, Magarini, Mwingi (North, West), Laikipia West, Kibwezi Kilifi, Marsabit, West, Mandera (North, West), Banissa, Laisamis, Tana River, Narok Moyale, Tigania (East,West),Taveta, Galole, Garsen, Tharaka, Loima, Turkana (Central, West) Wajir East, K apenguria, Kilgoris,Narok( East, West, South). Above-normal Vegetation (11) (61) Greenness Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Baringo (Central, North), Eldama Ravine, Embere Kwale, Lamu, (South, North), Manyatta, Runyenjes, Lagdera, Dadab, Makweni, Meru, Isiolo (North, South), Kaloleni, Kilifi (North, South), Nyeri, Tharaka Malindi, Rabai, Kitui (Central, South, West, East, Rural) Nithi, Wajir and Mwingi, Central, Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Mandera Lamu (East,West), Kaiti, Kilome, Makweni, Mbooni, Kibwezi West, Mandera (East, South),North-Horr, Saku, Buuri, IMENTI (Central, North, South),Igembe (Central, North, South), Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya,Tetu, Chuka, Maara, Tarbaj, Eldas, Wajir (North, West, South), Pokot South, Emurrua Dikirr, Narok North 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Deterioration in the condition of forage was noted across majority of ASAL counties, with about 83 reporting the condition of pasture and browse to be fair-to-good (Table 2). The witnessed pasture and browse condition were within the normal level for the month of September, save for a few counties such as Turkana, Kitui, Laikipia and Taita Taveta that recorded poor conditions. The observed deterioration of forage condition across the period under review could be attributed to the prevailing dry and hot weather conditions in most parts of the ASALs. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in September 2023. Pasture Browse Baringo Garissa Kitui Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Embu Baringo Kajiado Kwale Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Narok Lamu Kajiado Kwale Taita Taveta Nyeri (Kieni) Marsabit Kilifi Lamu Samburu Wajir Laikipia Marsabit Tana River Meru North Narok Wajir Tharaka Nithi Nyeri (Kieni) West Pokot West Pokot Samburu Meru North Mandera Taita Taveta Makueni Tana River Embu Tharaka Nithi Mandera 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock was generally fair-to-good all across all ASAL counties (Table 3).The observed body condition over September was consistent with the one normally observed over the same period normally across most counties and that could be attributed to availability of forage and water within relatively shorter distances. Table 3: Livestock body condition in September 2023. Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo Isiolo Baringo Embu Embu Kilifi Kitui Garissa Garissa Kwale Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Narok Kajiado Kitui Wajir Nyeri (Kieni) Kilifi Laikipia West Pokot Samburu Kwale Lamu Meru North Tana River Laikipia Makueni Mandera Turkana Lamu Narok Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Taita Taveta Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Meru North Turkana Mandera 1.3.3 Milk production Stability in the level of milk produced was noted during the month under review with respect to the previous month. However, approximately 50 of the counties reported below average milk production which could be attributed to low tropical livestock units (TLUs) as a result of previous failed seasons that resulted in livestock mortalities (Table 4). Factors driving the observed stability included availability of forage and water in most counties. Table 4: Milk production in September 2023. Milk Isiolo Lamu Kilifi Kajiado Baringo Kitui Production Turkana Makueni Marsabit Makueni Garissa Lamu Wajir Mandera Samburu Marsabit Isiolo Kilifi Embu West Tana River Wajir Laikipia Mandera Kwale Pokot Baringo Embu Meru Narok Meru Garissa Kwale Samburu Nyeri Tharaka Kajiado Taita Taveta Nithi Kitui Tana River Laikipia Tharaka Narok Nithi Nyeri Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Unconfirmed Incidences of endemic livestock diseases including Contagious Bovine Pleural Pneumonia, Contagious Caprine Pleural Pneumonia, Lumpy Skin Disease, Peste des petit ruminants (PPR), goatsheep pox, Heartwater disease and Mange were reported across most arid counties. Equally, suspected cases of Foot and Mouth Disease were reported in Embu, West Pokot, Samburu, and Narok Counties. Tick borne diseases such as anaplasmosis, babesiosis and East Coast Fever were recorded in majority of the counties, with reported cases of abortions among goats in some areas such as Kajiado West due to suspected Q-Fever disease. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties about 65 - recorded above-average cattle prices, with about 13 reporting prices that were at par with the usual prices and below the respective normal prices (Table 5). Generally, stability in the price of cattle across most counties was noted and that could be attributed to the stable body condition occasioned by forage and water availability. However, a negative trend was evident in Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Meru and Tana River counties. Table 5: Cattle prices in September 2023 Cattle Baringo Embu Laikipia Isiolo Baringo Embu Prices Garissa Kitui Taita Taveta Kwale Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Makueni Laikipia Lamu Kilifi Kajiado Narok Mandera Makueni Kitui Kilifi, Wajir Nyeri Marsabit Nyeri Meru Kwale West Pokot Narok Samburu Tana River Lamu Wajir Taita Taveta Mandera Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Turkana Meru, Turkana West Pokot Samburu Tana River 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability was observed in the market prices of goats across most ASAL counties with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. Overall, majority of the counties (95) reported prices that were above normal for the period, with the exception of Lamu and Nyeri whose prices were below the long-term average. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6: Goat prices in September 2023. Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Baringo Garissa Baringo Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado Garissa Prices Embu, Kitui, Isiolo, Kwale, Lamu Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Kwale Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Mandera Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Taita Samburu Lamu, Narok, Makueni, Nyeri Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and Southeast marginal agriculture clusters. The current state of crop production is indicated in Table 7. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Kitui Production was significantly reduced as a result of crop failure and destruction by Marginal aphids. The actual production for most crops was 60-100 of the long-term Agriculture average. Agropastoral Baringo Most farmers have concluded harvesting various crops and land preparation was ongoing in preparation for the short rains season. Laikipia In September, some farms in the Mixed Farming Livelihood and some in the Marginal Mixed Farming reported harvesting of maize while others reported harvesting of beans and Irish potatoes. In other farms, maize crop is at maturity- to-harvesting stage, wheat at maturing-to-harvesting stage although low yields are expected for both due to early cessation of the March to May rains and poor June-July-August off-season rains and frostbite attacks (maize). Narok Currently, some of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at germination and knee-high stages for maize and beans are in good condition. West Pokot Most areas in the pastoral livelihood zones suffered crop failure due to moisture stress during the critical stages of flowering, tasseling and grain formation and farmers got little to no harvest at all. The affected wards include: Masol in Pokot Central Sub- County, Alale, Suam, Kodich and Kapchok in Pokot North Sub- County as well as Lower Chepareria in Kipkomo Sub- County. 1.4.1 Maize prices Majority of the counties (over 95) recorded above long term average maize prices. However, 11 counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, lamu, Makueni, Narok, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi and Turkana recorded an improving trend as result of ongoing harvesting. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. Observed trend over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvest within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8: Maize prices in September 2023 Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Maize Baringo, Embu Garissa Baringo Embu Meru Prices Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi Garissa West Pokot Kilifi, Kitui Kwale Isiolo Kwale, Laikipia Laikipia Kajiado Lamu, Makueni Lamu Kitui Mandera, Nyeri Makueni Mandera Marsabit, Meru Narok Marsabit Narok, Wajir Samburu Nyeri Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Tana River Turkana West Pokot 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 12 counties is currently above LTA and on a worsening trend compared to the previous month. Distance to water source in arid counties is between 2.8 and 8.5 kilometres, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances to household water access. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranged between 1.5 and 6.6 kilometres, with Kajiado recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources, September2023 Distance from Kajiado, Nyeri, Embu, Isiolo, Embu, Baringo, Kilifi, Kajiado, Nyeri, households to Baringo, Samburu Kilifi, Kitui , Baringo Kajiado, Baringo, Samburu main water Taita Taveta, Tana Lamu, Marsabit Mandera, Makueni, Taita Taveta, sources River, Turkana, , Mandera, Meru Narok, Tharaka Mandera, Tana Makueni, Tharaka Narok, Kwale, Tharaka Nithi, Nithi, West River, Turkana, Nithi, Laikipia, West Wajir, Mandera Narok, Isiolo Pokot, Kwale, Makueni, Tharaka Pokot, Meru Kitui, Lamu Wajir, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, Makueni Nithi West Pokot, Marsabit 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In Comparison to the previous months, the trekking distance to water source from grazing areas worsened in 13 counties in September, while other counties were below long term average and at long term average respectively as depicted in Table 10. The counties that reported a worsening trend include: Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi, Kitui, Wajir, Marsabit and Mandera. Its also worth noting that seven (7) counties including Baringo, Kitui, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and West Pokot recorded above long term average distances from livestock grazing areas to main water sources. The average livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water points in arid counties was between 4 and 15.4 kilometres, with Lamu reporting the lowest and Samburu the highest. In semi-arid counties, the distance was between 2.4 and 7.7 kilometres, with Kilifi County recording the lowest and Taita Taveta the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources in September 2023 Distance from Baringo, Kitui, Nyeri Kwale Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado Narok Kwale Samburu, Taita- livestock Samburu, Taita- Narok Kilifi, Lamu, Tharaka Embu Embu Taveta, Turkana grazing areas Taveta, Tana River, Nithi, Marsabit, Wajir Baringo Kajiado Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi to main water Turkana and West Garissa, Kwale, Tharaka Kitui, Tana River sources Pokot Mandera and Meru Nithi Wajir, Marsabit, Nyeri West Pokot Garissa, Mandera 1.6 Terms of Trade In September, 48 of ASAL counties reported Terms of Trade that were below the respective long term average, indicating an improvement compared to the previous month. Most of the counties are close to long term average, depicting an improving trend in household purchasing power as result of ongoing harvest as illustrated in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in September 2023. Terms of Garissa, Isiolo, Kwale, Baringo, Embu Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Lamu Embu trade (ToT) Lamu, Mandera, Narok, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Taita Taveta Garissa Tana River, Tharaka Laikipia, Marsabit, Mandera, Marsabit, West Pokot Makueni Nithi, Turkana, Wajir and Nyeri, Samburu, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Makueni TaitaTaveta, West Tana River, Tharaka Pokot, Meru Nithi, Tukana and Wajir 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was above long term average in 52 of the counties, with 11 counties on a worsening trend including: Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Meru and Turkana. The poor nutrition status is as result of previous failed seasons, thus livelihoods are still on recovery mode and low milk production at household level due to reduced livestock numbers as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based on Middle-Upper-Arm-Circumference measurements) in September 2023 Baringo Embu Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Kajiado Garissa Kwale Kitui Isiolo MUAC Kitui Kilifi Marsabit Mandera Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Wajir Baringo Lamu Laikipia Narok Embu Makueni Lamu Samburu Taita Taveta Narok Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Nyeri Mandera Wajir Tharaka Nithi Samburu Nyeri West Pokot Tana River Taita Taveta Meru Turkana Tana River Meru 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, five counties including Laikipia, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Turkana are classified at the Alert drought phase and on a worsening trend, while 18 counties are at the Normal phase with a worsening trend being noted in Kitui, Makueni, Garissa and Nyeri as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in September 2023 Drought Trend Status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Embu, Kilifi, Kajiado, Lamu, Narok, Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Garissa Marsabit Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Kwale, West Pokot, Mandera, Meru Alert Laikipia, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana Alarm - - - Emergency - - - Recovery - - - 3.0 Recommendations 3.1 Food and safety nets Sustained provision of food assistance and cash transfer to food insecure populations. 3.2 Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for pastoralists accessing dry season grazing areas. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3.3 Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Management of water facilities. Installation of water resource level monitoring equipment. Development of water harvesting infrastructure, especially in schools. 3.4 Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotion. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 3.5 Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 3.6 Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. 3.7 Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought preparedness, recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th September 2023. Administrative Unit Vegetation Drought CategoriesRemarks Greenness County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 30th at 27th (3-month) Aug Sept 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2023 2023 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 49.08 41.6 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in September Central 69.64 68.57 2023 but the situation has started deteriorating, with some sub- North 59.75 52.43 counties registering moderate vegetation deficit. South 52.14 42.8 Ravine 74.16 67.8 Mogotio 43.44 28.89 Tiaty 37.02 30.95 Mandera County 44.39 54.14 The county recorded an improvement from normal vegetation Lafey 42.24 48.41 greenness in August to above normal vegetation greenness in the North 38.34 49.65 September 2023. Banissa 28.69 41.51 West 34.58 45.62 South 66.22 74.6 East 60.75 69.76 Turkana County 37.71 32.52 The county recorded deterioration in vegetation greenness at East 27.49 23.34 moderate vegetation in September from normal vegetation South 35.03 28.31 greenness in August. The condition in Turkana East, South and Loima 42.3 36 North has started worsening. Central 51.59 49.99 West 43.29 35.06 North 33.93 30.48 Marsabit County 49.26 49.06 The county remained stable (normal vegetation greenness) in Laisamis 45.33 42.15 September compared to the previous month. Moyale 40.92 44.01 North Horr 52.06 52.95 Saku 76.98 72.24 Wajir County 60.11 59.46 The county recorded stability in vegetation at above normal Tarbaj 57.34 66.42 vegetation greenness in September compared to the previous North 52.18 57.63 month. South 48.76 52.42 West 72.58 75.09 Eldas 63.29 66.42 East 44.92 49.96 Samburu County 28.77 24.37 The county recorded a worsening trend with a moderate vegetation East 26.93 24.86 greenness in September. North 27.99 22.27 West 39.1 29.68 Garissa County 45.29 47.35 The county experienced normal vegetation greenness in September Balambala 25.91 24.73 compared to previous month. However, Balambala, Garissa Township 32.35 32.67 Township, Ijara and Fafi showed moderate vegetation deficit. Ijara 39.33 44.72 Fafi 37.13 39.75 Lagdera 76.73 80.69 Dadaab 56.05 53.72 Isiolo County 55.84 62.19 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness North 50.13 57.05 compared to previous months South 64.57 70.05 Tana River County 40.52 40.2 The county remained stable in normal vegetation greenness, except Bura 34.82 32.84 Bura Sub- County that recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Galole 43.17 42.68 Garsen 43.69 44.9 Kajiado County 32.98 35.46 The county recorded a slight improvement in vegetation greenness East 47.2 30.99 from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness in North 42.01 28.93 September compared to previous months. West 49.34 Kacheliba 41 29.2 Kapenguria 55.86 47.75 Pokot South 67.51 67.06 Sigor 50.29 40.18 Embu County 56.58 70.89 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the Manyatta 59.08 86.4 month under review. Mbeere North 62.18 70.57 County 56.8 54.07 The County recorded stability in vegetation cover at above normal Kitui Central 78.09 74.48 vegetation greenness. Kitui East 81.04 74.22 Kitui Rural 76.83 74.78 Kitui South 52.32 51.61 Kitui West 53.27 52.34 Mwingi Central 62.48 55.88 Mwingi North 38.41 36.35 Mwingi West 45.16 47.29 Makueni County 59.91 60.45 Kaiti 82.39 88.99 Kibwezi East 42.2 41.32 Kibwezi West 53.23 51.38 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above Kilome 63.19 64.99 normal vegetation greenness in September compared to August. Makueni 73.08 74.02 Mbooni 82.91 87.67 County 63.8 59.55 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above Buuri 61.88 59.9 normal vegetation greenness in August. Central Imenti 69.64 71.29 Igembe Central 69.91 63.27 Igembe North 54.12 49.31 Igembe South 72.14 64.01 North Imenti 74.77 74.55 South Imenti 72.23 73.11 Tigania East 55.69 46.91 Tigania West 56.74 49.06 County 64.96 65.87 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation Nyeri Kieni 62.15 57.7 condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition in Mathira 63.63 70.56 September. Mukurweini 73.88 82.84 Nyeri Town 57.73 52.56 Othaya 67.41 82.17 Tetu 77.67 84.09 County 51.45 49.62 The county recorded Normal vegetation green in September Ganze 48.95 44.25 compared to above vegetation greenness during the month of Kilifi Kaloleni 64.73 59.21 August. Kilifi North 58.45 57.81 Kilifi South 57.48 57.91 Magarini 48.72 48.14 Malindi 62.9 61.8 Rabai 60.92 60.21 Kwale County 64.3 57.57 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation Kinango 63.77 55.75 condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition in Lunga Lunga 67.82 55.95 September. Matuga 64.75 69.19 Msambweni 52.31 56.93 County 62.03 63 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation Lamu East 52.22 51.2 condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month. Lamu West 67.7 69.82 County 33.69 32.57 The county remained stable with moderate vegetation deficit in the Taita Taveta Mwatate 36.43 34.77 month of September when compared to previous months. Taveta 37.41 36.8 Voi 32.01 30.91 Wundanyi 25.82 23.72 Narok County 45.73 Emurua Dikirr 65.54 62.21 The county and all its sub counties recorded Normal vegetation Kilgoris 49.26 40.91 deficit, except for Emurua Dikirr and Narok North that recorded Narok East 53.23 40.62 above normal vegetation greenness in September. Narok North 61.53 53.98 Narok South 54.53 47.15 Narok West 53.91 43.79 County 40.72 33.17 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. West Pokot Kacheliba 29.2 21.73 Kapenguria 47.75 39.26 Pokot South 67.06 60.85 Sigor 40.18 32.48 Tharaka County 54.1 56.56 Nithi Tharaka Nithi 54.1 69.77 Th county Recorded above normal vegetation greenness ChukaIgamb 65.04 72.86 angombe Maara 64.89 46.37 Tharaka 46.53 32.52 Laikipia 35.31 24.85 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit as opposed to Laikipia East 30.99 20.26 previous months the showed normal vegetation Laikipia North 28.93 18.36 Laikipia Laikipia West 49.34 39.21 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15).The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 6: Drought Phase Classification",
            "October_2023.pdf": "October 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The impacts of the October to December 2023 short rains season, which is characterised by El Nino phenomenon, has been realised in all Arid and Semi-Arid counties. Twenty (20) counties reported Normal drought phase in October. They include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Marsabit, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo. Three (3) counties including Samburu, Laikipia and Taita Taveta are in Alert Phase but positive impacts of the ongoing rains are reversing the drought situation. Figure 1 shows the drought phase classification in October 2023. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification - October 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 October 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the October 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received above average rainfall due to the ongoing El Nino episode that had onset in the second week of October. The Pastoral Northeast counties including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa and Pastoral Northwest counties comprising Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received the highest amounts of rainfall ranging between 71mm to 201mm. The Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui received relatively high amounts of rainfall in October ranging between 21mm to 201mm whereas the Agro-pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good amounts between 50mm to 100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture Figure 2: October 2023 Rainfall Performance counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received low amounts ranging between 21mm as shown Figure 2. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for November 2023 The Pastoral Northeast livelihood zone (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) is forecasted at probabilities of above average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience above average rainfall while Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasting at increased probabilities of above average rainfall. The Agro-pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to experience above average rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) counties are forecasted to recieve above average rainfall, while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to receive above average rainfall with eastern parts of Marsabit and Samburu to received increased probabilities of above average rainfall. The rainfall outlook for November is illustrated in Figure 3. 1.1.3 Flooding Some ASAL counties including Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Tana River experienced flooding. In Mandera and Wajir counties, Bute and Elwak Figure 3. November 2023 Rainfall forecast. areas were submerged. Flooding in Garissa County resulted to washing away of a section of the Garissa - Modogashe highway. Flooding in Tana River County, especially along River Tana, led to displacement after houses were submerged. Some families lost livestock in the flooding incidents. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Despite the time lag between the precipitation period and vegetation regeneration, regeneration was evident in October. Generally, the vegetation condition in October showed great improvement when compared to September. Figure 4: Vegetation Conditions trends for September and October 2023 The month of October registered improvement in vegetation condition across ASAL counties compared to the previous month (September). This is linked to the ongoing short rains season, which has been linked to El Nino phenomenon. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Three (3) counties including; Taita Taveta, Laikipia and Samburu recorded Moderate vegetation deficit with prospects of improvement. The following six (6) counties including; Turkana, West Pokot, Kajiado, Kilifi, Tana River and Garissa recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following fourteen (14) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Kitui, Makueni, Lamu and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in October 2023 is better when compared to the previous month, September 2023 as shown in Figure 4. Table 1 provides the situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in October 2023. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation deficit Moderate (3) (13) vegetation Samburu, Taita Turkana (South, East) Garissa (Balambala, Township) deficit Taveta, Laikipia Samburu (East, North), Tana River (Bura), Kilifi (Ganze), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Taveta), Laikipia (East, North, Laikipia Normal (5) (29) vegetation Turkana, Garissa, Turkana (Central, West, Loima), Wajir (West), Marsabit greenness Tana River, Kajiado, (Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Fafi, Daadab), Isiolo (North, West Pokot South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Central, East, South), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi East), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini), Taita-Taveta (Taveta), Narok (Kilgoris, East, North), Narok (Emurua Dikirr), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria and Sigor), Laikipia (Laikipia West) Above (15) (61) normal Baringo, Mandera, Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine), Mandera (South, Vegetation Wajir, Marsabit, North, East, Lafey, Banissa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, greenness Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Eldas, South and East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Garissa Makueni, Meru, (Ijara, Lagdera), Kajiado (North), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere Nyeri, Kilifi, Kwale, North, South and Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, Lamu, Narok Isiolo South, West and Mwingi Central), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi, West, Kilome, Makueni and Mbooni), Meru ( Buuri, Central- Imenti, Igembe , Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti ,South Imenti Tigania East ,Tigania West),Nyeri(Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr), West Pokot (Pokot South), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and Browse Condition The state of pasture and browse was fair to good across arid and semi-arid counties as shown in Table 2. The ongoing short rains seasons have resulted in regeneration of pasture and browse whose condition is normal compared to similar periods in normal years. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in October 2023. Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Kilifi Kitui Baringo Garissa Lamu Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Meru Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Wajir Mandera Kajiado Kitui West Pokot Narok Kilifi Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Lamu Makueni Samburu Meru Mandera Taita Taveta Wajir Narok Tana River West Pokot Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Embu 1.3.2 Livestock Body Condition Thirty-six percent (36) of ASAL counties reported good livestock body condition for cattle while the others registered fair conditions. The body condition for goats was good in 59 of the counties and fair in the rest. Generally, the body condition of most livestock is above normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. This is attributed to due to good improvement in vegetation. The ongoing rains will enable further improvement especially for cattle as pasture and browse conditions improve. Table 3 shows livestock body condition in October. Table 3: Livestock body condition in October 2023. Cattle Goats Baringo Kajiado Kitui Baringo Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Lamu Makueni Isiolo Kitui Meru Mandera Kajiado Laikipia Narok Nyeri Kilifi Makueni Wajir Samburu Lamu Mandera West Pokot Tana River Meru Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Narok Samburu Embu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Marsabit 1.3.3 Milk Production There was an increase in the trend of milk production in October compared to the previous month in the majority of counties. Six counties showed an improving trend, with the exceptions being Garissa, Makueni, Meru and Tana River, which experienced a worsening trend as result of flooding, affecting the feeding regime. The details of milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties are shown in Table 4. Table 4: Milk Production in October 2023. Milk Isiolo Kajiado Baringo Kajiado Baringo Garissa Production Lamu Kitui Garissa Laikipia Isiolo Makueni Mandera Meru Laikipia Lamu Kilifi Meru Narok Makueni Mandera Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nyeri Narok Samburu Nithi Samburu Nyeri Taita Turkana Taita Taveta Taveta Wajir Tana River Tharaka West Pokot Nithi Kilifi Turkana Pokot 1.3.4 Livestock Diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and Foot and Mouth. 1.3.5 Cattle Prices Most of the ASAL counties (91) experienced above-average cattle prices in October. None of the counties recorded below long-term average prices in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. The improvements are as result of enhanced rains, which have led to improved body condition. None of the County recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in October 2023. Cattle Baringo Taita Taveta Kajiado Baringo Prices Garissa West Pokot Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Narok Isiolo Kajiado Nyeri Kilifi Kilifi Wajir Kitui Kitui Lamu Laikipia Makueni Lamu Mandera Makueni Meru Mandera Samburu Meru Taita Narok Taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Tharaka Tana Nithi River Turkana Tharaka West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices All of the counties reported prices that were above normal for the period, except Lamu and Nyeri, whose prices were below the long-term average. Stability was observed in the market prices of goats across most ASAL counties, with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6: Goat prices in October 2023. Above LTA At Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Baringo, Garissa Embu Baringo Embu, Kitui, Isiolo, Garissa Kajiado Prices Kwale, Kajiado, Isiolo Kitui Kilifi, Laikipia Kilifi Makueni Lamu, Narok, Lamu Marsabit Makueni, Mandera, Laikipia Meru Marsabit, Meru, Wajir Narok Nyeri, Samburu, Kwale Taita Taveta Taita Taveta, Tana Tharaka Nithi River, Tharaka Turkana Nithi, Turkana, West Pokot Wajir, West Pokot Mandera 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. Table 7 summarises the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7: Status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Kilifi First weeding in some parts of the county. Marginal Planted cassava crop recorded good condition. Agriculture Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded as supply in markets remained high. Kwale There were no crops in farms as harvesting was complete and majority of the households were planting and preparing land for the short rains season. Kitui Normal land preparation and planting for the short rains season was ongoing in most areas across the livelihood zones. South East Crops were at germination stage in areas which undertook early Marginal planting. Agriculture Makueni Farmers across the livelihood zones were busy preparing their farms in readiness for the upcoming 2023 October to December short rains. Tharaka Nithi Most farmers were weeding their crops while a few were still expanding their land ready for the short rainy season planting 1.4.1 Maize Prices Twenty-two counties (95) recorded above long term average maize prices. However, 16 counties including Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Baringo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Meru and West Pokot recorded a stable trend resulting from ongoing harvests. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. The trend observed over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvests within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8: Maize prices in October 2023 Maize Baringo, Embu, Lamu Kitui, Kwale Isiolo Embu Prices Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Kajiado Garissa Kajiado, Kilifi, Marsabit Mandera Narok Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Nyeri Marsabit, Meru Baringo Narok, Wajir Kilifi Samburu Lamu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to Water for Households Household distances to water sources has improved across ASAL counties, with only six counties reporting above LTA.The distances in the six counties is expected to improve with the ongoing enhanced rains. Distance to water sources in arid counties stood between 2.2 and 8.5 kilometers, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Samburu reported the highest distances. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranged between 1.2 and 7.5 kilometers, with Meru recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in October 2023. Distance Garissa Kwale, Baringo Baringo Kwale Garissa from Kilifi Turkana Embu Embu Turkana Kilifi househol Kitui Wajir Isiolo Isiolo Wajir Kitui ds to Nyeri West Kajiado Kajiado West- Laikipia main Samburu Pokot Laikipia Lamu Pokot Nyeri water Taita- Lamu Makueni Samburu sources Taveta Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Narok Narok, Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka 1.5.2 Access to Water for Livestock The livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water sources has improved across ASAL counties, with only 6 counties reporting above LTA but on improving trend as shown in Table 10. The average distance traveled by livestock from grazing areas to water points in arid counties ranged from 6.8 to 14.9 kilometers, with Baringo reporting the shortest distance and Garissa reporting the longest. The distance in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 and 8.3 kilometers, with Meru County recording the lowest and Kitui the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2023 Distance Kilifi Baringo Embu Embu Baringo from Kitui Taita Isiolo Isiolo Taita livestock Nyeri Taveta Kajiado Kajiado Taveta grazing Samburu Turkana Lamu Lamu Turkana area to Garissa West Kwale Kwale West main Laikipia Pokot Mandera Mandera Pokot water Narok Marsabit Marsabit Narok sources Makueni Meru Meru Makueni Tana River Tana River Thara Tharaka Nithi Nithi Wajir Wajir Meru Kilifi Kitui 1.6 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were favourable and on improving trend compared to the previous month, with 65 of counties reporting improving trend. The improving terms of trade are as result of improved livestock prices, coupled with ongoing harvests across the counties. The terms of trade are likely to improve as result of ongoing enhanced rain as illustrated in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in October 2023. Terms of Garissa Baringo Baringo Lamu trade Isiolo Embu Isiolo Taita (ToT) Lamu Kajiado Kajiado Taveta Mandera Kilifi Kitui West Narok Kitui Kwale Pokot Tana River Laikipia Laikipia Tharaka- Marsabit Mandera Nithi Nyeri Marsabit Samburu Narok Turkana Taita Taveta Nyeri Wajir West-Pokot Samburu Makueni Meru Kwale Tana River Tharaka- Tukana 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation in ASAL counties is generally stable and expected to improve with ongoing enhanced rains. The current poor health and nutrition status is as result of previous failed seasons, hence livelihoods are still on recovery mode, and low milk production at household level due to reduced livestock numbers as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) in October 2023. Baringo Embu Kajiado Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Kwale Kitui MUAC Kitui Kilifi Marsabit Mandera Kwale Marsabit Wajir Baringo Laikipia Narok Embu Lamu Samburu Taita Makueni Tharaka Taveta Mandera Nithi West Nyeri Wajir Pokot Taita West Tharaka Taveta Pokot Nithi Tana River Meru Garissa Turkana Isiolo Narok River 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, three counties including Samburu, Taita Taveta and Laikipia are classified at the Alert drought phase while 20 counties - Baringo, Nyeri, Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Mandera, Isiolo, Embu, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Meru, Makueni, Kajiado, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in October 2023. Drought Trend status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Baringo, Turkana, Mandera, Isiolo, Embu, - Marsabit, Wajir, Narok Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Makueni,, Kajiado, Tana Pokot, Nyeri(Kieni) River, Garissa, Kilifi Alert - Samburu, Taita Taveta, - Alarm - - - Emergency - - - Recovery - - - 3.0 Recommendations a) Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and cash transfers targeting households exposed to flood risks. b) Livestock sector Monitoring on livestock disease outbreaks, especially those associated with wet conditions. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. c) Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. d) Health and nutrition sector Support towards hygiene and sanitation promotion. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). e) Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. f) Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource-use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. g) Coordination Sensitise communities and enhance awareness on enhanced rains and associated negative impacts. Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) for effective response coordination. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th October 2023. Administrative Unit Vegetation Drought CategoriesRemarks Greenness COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month month values as at as at 29th (3-month) 27th oct 50 Above normal vegetation Sept 2023 greenness. 2023 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness. 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit. 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit. 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 41.6 52.07 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October, with 68.57 73.32 improvement registered across the county. Central North 52.43 61.8 42.8 54.32 Ravine 67.8 68.81 Mogotio 28.89 39.24 Tiaty 30.95 44.35 MANDERA County 54.14 60.57 The county remained stable with above normal vegetation greenness Lafey 48.41 54.54 compared to previous month of September. North 49.65 58.58 Banissa 41.51 56.11 West 45.62 56.01 South 74.6 73.54 East 69.76 63.4 TURKANA County 32.52 35.4 The county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in October compared East 23.34 28.07 to moderate vegetation in September, with an improvement in vegetation. South 28.31 29.72 The condition in Turkana East and South remained stable. Loima 36 41.47 Central 49.99 47.81 West 35.06 38.85 North 30.48 32.42 MARSABIT County 49.06 50.08 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October Laisamis 42.15 43.28 compared to Normal vegetation greenness in September. Improvement Moyale 44.01 43.58 was experienced across the county. North Horr 52.95 54.53 Saku 72.24 68.62 WAJIR County 59.46 55.01 The county maintained above normal vegetation greenness in October. Tarbaj 66.42 67.32 North 57.63 57.41 52.42 53.42 West 75.09 47.11 Eldas 66.42 63.26 49.96 58.63 SAMBURU County 28.77 27.7 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in October compared to East 26.93 26.8 previous month. North 27.99 27.59 39.1 31.81 GARISSA County 47.35 46.09 When compared to the previous month, the vegetation greenness in the Balambala 24.73 21.49 county remained stable. Balambala and Garissa Township had a Township 32.67 30.89 moderate vegetation deficit. 44.72 56.22 Ijara Fafi 39.75 39.61 Lagdera 80.69 69.59 Dadaab 53.72 45.5 ISIOLO County 62.19 59.52 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in October North 57.05 55.46 compared to the previous month of September. 70.05 65.72 TANA RIVER County 40.2 38.88 The county recorded normal vegetation deficit in October compared to the Bura 32.84 28.38 previous month, except Bura Sub-County, which recorded moderate Galole 42.68 39.4 vegetation deficit. Garsen 44.9 47.48 KAJIADO County 35.46 44.72 Vegetation greenness was normal in October compared to the previous Central 28.99 37.63 month. Kajiado Central and East saw a slight improvement from Moderate East 32.83 38.36 to Normal Vegetation. North 45.74 52.73 South 35.41 36.3 West 40.05 58.11 LAIKIPIA County 24.85 27.19 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. East 20.26 28.06 North 18.36 20.41 39.21 39.46 THARAKA County 56.56 56.46 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month NITHI Chuka 69.77 75.87 under review compared to previous months. Maara 72.86 77.6 Tharaka 46.3 42.39 WEST County 33.17 42.91 The county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in the month under POKOT Kacheliba 21.73 35.13 review as compared to moderate vegetation deficit in September. Slight Kapenguria 39 49.01 improvement was witnessed at the sub-counties from moderate to normal Pokot south 60.85 62.11 vegetation. Sigor 32.48 40.59 EMBU County 61.49 69.41 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the Manyatta 69.45 79.56 month under review. Mbeere north 65.71 71.5 Mbeere south 52.81 60.36 Runyenjes 75.47 87.22 County 54.07 71.91 The county recorded stability in vegetation cover at above normal KITUI Kitui central 74.48 62.29 vegetation greenness. Kitui east 74.22 73.16 Kitui rural 74.78 48.81 Kitui south 51.61 54.99 Kitui west 52.34 47.9 Mwingi central 55.88 35.33 Mwingi north 36.35 55.41 Mwingi west 47.29 71.91 County 60.45 59.84 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October Kaiti 88.99 87.62 compared to September. MAKUENI Kibwezi east 41.32 41.05 Kibwezi west 51.38 50.05 Kilome 64.99 65.39 Makueni 74.02 73.83 Mbooni 87.67 86.55 County 59.55 60 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub- Buuri 59.9 50.75 counties. Central Imenti 67.44 56.66 Igembe central 71.29 72.73 Igembe north 63.27 62.32 Igembe south 49.31 55.11 North Imenti 64.01 63.39 South Imenti 74.55 73.79 Tigania east 73.11 79.88 Tigania west 46.91 53.62 County 65.87 64.78 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October and NYERI Kieni 57.7 55.22 September, with stability across the county showing stability. Mathira 70.56 73.09 Mukurweini 82.84 80.53 Nyeri town 52.56 51.46 Othaya 82.17 85.78 Tetu 84.09 81.66 KILIFI County 49.62 41.72 The county maintained Normal vegetation green in the month of October, Ganze 44.25 32.89 as compared to September. However, Ganze Sub- County deteriorated Kaloleni 59.21 47.16 from normal vegetation to moderate vegetation deficit. Kilifi north 57.81 53.66 Kilifi south 57.91 53.78 Magarini 48.14 41.52 Malindi 61.8 53.29 Rabai 60.21 54.33 KWALE County 57.57 51.16 The vegetation condition index recorded above-normal vegetation Kinango 55.75 46.09 greenness in both October, and September respectively. Lunga 55.95 51.34 Matuga 69.19 70.57 Msambweni 56.93 60.64 LAMU County 63 70.39 The county and all sub-counties recorded stability in vegetation condition Lamu east 51.2 54.62 at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month. Lamu west 69.82 79.51 TAITA County 32.57 29.22 The county remained stable with moderate vegetation deficit in October TAVETA Mwatate 34.77 29.05 compared to the previous months. However, Taveta sub-county recorded Taveta 36.8 30.93 worsening trend from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Voi 30.91 28.78 Wundanyi 23.72 26.64 County 45.73 56.7 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October as NAROK Emurua Dikirr 62.21 75.88 opposed to normal vegetation greenness. This indicated an improvement. Kilgoris 40.91 57.84 Narok east 40.62 43.35 Narok north 53.98 46.37 Narok south 47.15 58.43 Narok west 43.79 63.92 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification",
            "November_2023.pdf": "November 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview Impacts of the October-December short rains season, which is characterised by an El Nio phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, have been realised in all Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties. Based on the drought phase classification, all the 23 counties1 reported normal conditions in November. An assessment of the impact of 2023 March-May Long Rains season on food and nutrition security projected that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance during the October 2023 to January 2024 period would drop to 1.5 million from 2.8 million in July due to good performance of the Short Rains season. However, the negative effects of the enhanced rainfall continue to undermine food and nutrition security situation following the flooding reported in various ASAL counties. The situation is further compounded by destruction of road and communication network, which has limited the flow of food and other essential commodities in local markets. Figure 1 shows the drought phase classification in November 2023. Figure 1: Drought phase classification in November 2023 1 Samburu, Laik ipia, Taita Taveta Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Marsabit, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 November 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the November 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several areas in ASAL counties received above average rainfall due to El Nino conditions that continued with high intensity in various parts. The Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties - Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui - received the highest rainfall amounts in November ranging between 200 to 1,000mm. The Pastoral Northeast counties, which include Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa, also received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 300 to 400mm. Pastoral Northwest counties (Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu) received high rainfall amounts ranging between 100 to 300mm. However, some parts of Turkana County did not receive any rainfall. The Agropastoral cluster, including Figure 2: November 2023 Rainfall Performance Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot, received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 100 to 300mm while the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received relatively high amounts of rainfall ranging between 101 to 500mm as shown Figure 2. 1.1.2 December 2023 Rainfall Outlook The forecast for the Pastoral Northeast livelihhod zone region comprising Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa counties indicates probability of near-avaerage to above- average rainfall. Parts of Southeast Marginal Agriculture zone, which includes Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi counties, are forecasted to experience above-average rainfall while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone counties (Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and Baringo) are expected to experience above-average rainfall. The forecast for Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale - indicates above-average rainfall, while the Pastoral Northwest region (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) is projected to receive near- average to above-average rainfall, with the eastern parts of Marsabit, northern Samburu and the entire Turkana County set to experience near-average rainfall. Figure 3 shows rainfall forecast for December 2023. Figure 3: December 2023 rainfall forecast. 1.1.3 Impact of Floods Most ASAL counties, including Isiolo, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Tana River, experienced heavy flooding. Out of 160 casualties in the country as at early December, two thirds were reported in ASAL counties, especially Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Isiolo and Garissa. Flooding in Garissa and Tana River counties resulted in displacement of households, property damage and destruction of infrastructure such as roads and health facilities. For instance, sections of critical roads such as the Garissa - Modogashe road and the main road linking Hola in Tana River and Garissa were washed away, curtailing transport and supply of essential commodities. Floods also disrupted the movement of goods to Wajir and Mandera counties, leading to hike in commodity prices. 1.2 Vegetation Condition The enhanced rainfall in November continued to improve vegetation condition as regeneration is noted across ASAL counties. Consequently, none of the ASAL counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Only one county - Taita Taveta recorded overall Moderate vegetation deficit, thus requiring close monitoring and contingency planning. A few sub-counties in three more counties also registered moderate deficit. These are Balambala and Township in Garissa, Bura in Tana River and Kajiado South. Seven counties, including Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, recorded Normal vegetation greenness while the remaining 15 ASAL counties recorded above-normal vegetation greenness. These are Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu and Kwale. Generally, the vegetation condition in November showed great improvement compared to October as illustrated in Fig 4. Figure 4: Vegetation Conditions trends for October and November 2023 A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of November 2023 disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in November 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation deficit Moderate (1) (8) vegetation Taita Taveta Garissa (Balambala, Township), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado deficit (South), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Taveta) Normal (6) (29) vegetation Samburu Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, South, North), Wajir (South, greenness Tana River West), Samburu (East, West), Garissa (Fafi, Daadab), Laikipia Laikipia (East, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui West, Kitui South), Makueni Garissa (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West), Nyeri (Nyeri Town), Kilifi Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi South, Magarini, Malindi), Kwale (Kinango), Narok (Kilgoris, East, North) Above (16) (76) normal Baringo Mandera Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine, Tiaty), Mandera (South, Vegetation Turkana North, East, Lafey, Banissa, West), Turkana (Loima, Central, greenness Marsabit West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku, Wajir Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas, East), Samburu (North) Isiolo Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River Kajiado (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Central, East, North, West), Tharaka Tharaka Nithi Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot: (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West Pokot Pokot South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere, North, South, Embu Runyenjes), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui rural, Mwingi Makueni West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru ( Buuri, Meru Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, Nyeri North Imenti, South Imenti Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri Kwale (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Lamu Rabai), Kwale (Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, Narok West) Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition About 82 of ASAL counties recorded good pasture condition while the rest posted fair condition. The browse condition was good in 87 of counties and fair in the rest as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are normal as compared to normal years and compared to October. The ongoing Short Rains season has led to full growth of pasture and browse. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition - November 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Kajiado Baringo Kajiado Garissa Makueni Embu Makueni Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Garissa Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Isiolo Kitui Kilifi Kwale Kitui Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Lamu Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Mandera Meru Nyeri Narok Meru Samburu Narok Tana River Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Turkana West Pokot Wajir 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Generally, the body condition of most livestock species is above normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. This is attributable to continued improvement in vegetation condition. The current body condition for cattle was good at 61 and fair at 39 in ASAL counties. Body condition for goats was good at 74 and fair at 26 in the arid and semi- arid counties. The good performance of the ongoing rains will lead to further improvement of livestock body conditions as pasture and browse conditions improve further. Table 3 shows livestock body condition in November. Table 3: Livestock body condition in November 2023 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Embu Kajiado Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Kilifi Laikipia Lamu Narok Kwale Makueni Marsabit Tharaka Laikipia Narok Mandera Nithi Lamu Tharaka Nithi Meru Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Mandera Tana River Nyeri Taita Samburu Taveta Tana River Wajir Taita Taveta West Pokot Turkana 1.3.3 Milk production The month of November noted an increase in the trend of milk production compared to October in majority of the counties. However, three counties - Garissa, Meru and Kajiado which showed a worsening trend. On the other hand, Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir counties above normal range milk production levels. However, its worth noting that milk production in 11 ASAL counties is below the average for a normal year due to low livestock numbers. These are Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi , Kwale, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and West Pokot. Table 4 shows detailed milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 4: Milk production - November 2023 Milk Baringo Kitui Garissa Baringo Kwale Garissa Production Embu Laikipia Kajiado Embu Laikipia Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Isiolo Narok Meru Lamu Kwale Kilifi Wajir Makueni Marsabit Kitui West Mandera Meru Lamu Pokot Narok Nyeri Makueni Tharaka Samburu Mandera Nithi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Wajir West Pokot Samburu 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot counties. These include unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and Foot and Mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Most of the ASAL counties (91) recorded above-average cattle prices during the month of November. No county recorded below long-term average prices compared to similar periods during a normal year. An improving trend was observed in Embu, Garissa, Kwale, Meru, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties. However, Narok and Nyeri counties recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5 below. Table 5: Cattle prices in November 2023 Cattle Baringo Nyeri Embu Baringo Narok prices Embu Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Garissa Kwale Kajiado Isiolo Meru Kilifi Kajiado Samburu Kitui Kilifi Tana River Laikipia Kitui Tharaka Lamu Kwale Nithi Makueni Laikipia Turkana Mandera Lamu Wajir Marsabit Makueni West Pokot Taita- Mandera Taveta Narok 1.3.6 Goat prices All of the counties reported prices above the long-term average. Stability was observed in market prices of goats across most ASAL counties, with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. The good body condition was driven by availability of browse and water. However, prices in Kajiado declined due to large volumes of goats presented in markets. Table 6: Goat prices in November 2023 Goat Baringo, Garissa, Baringo Makueni Kajiado Embu, Kitui, Garissa Meru Prices Isiolo, Kwale, Isiolo Taita Taveta Kajiado, Kilifi, West Pokot Laikipia, Lamu, Nyeri Laikipia Narok, Makueni, Tana River Mandera, Embu Marsabit, Meru, Narok Kilifi Nyeri, Samburu, Samburu Lamu Taita Taveta, Tharaka - Kwale Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in the Agropastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and Southeast marginal agriculture clusters. The current status of crop production is indicated in Table 7. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Kitui Most farmers in all the livelihood zones have planted maize crop. Marginal Planted cassava crop recorded good condition. Agriculture Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded and supply in markets remained high. Agropastoral Baringo Farmers in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone were harvesting green grams and other short-term crops. Most farmers in the Agro- pastoral livelihood zone also planted tomatoes, millet and sorghum. Laikipia The main activity on farms across the county was planting and weeding for early grown crops. Crops were at different stages and exhibiting good condition. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones were past knee-high stages for maize, while beans were in fair-to-good condition. West The main crops planted were beans and potatoes, which were Pokot planted in the Mixed Farming and Agropastoral zones. Beans were at pod formation stage, with harvests expected beginning December. 1.4.1 Maize prices Above long-term average maize prices were recorded in 22 counties. However, 13 counties, including Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Baringo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Meru, Kitui, Kwale and Laikipia, recorded a stable trend as result of ongoing harvests. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. The trend observed in November could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvesting within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. The counties with a worsening trend are among those that experienced floods, affecting markets. Table 8: Maize prices in November 2023 Maize Baringo Mandera Lamu Embu Isiolo Garissa Prices Embu Narok Kajiado Marsabit Garissa Nyeri Mandera Tana River Isiolo Samburu Baringo Wajir Kajiado Taita Taveta Kilifi Kilifi West Pokot Lamu Kitui Makueni Kwale Tharaka Laikipia Nithi Makueni Turkana Nyeri Meru Marsabit Kitui Meru Kwale Narok Laikipia 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water sources in 22 counties is currently below long term average and on an improving trend in 20 counties. In November, distance to water sources in arid counties was between 1.6 and 7.7 kilometres, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances. On the other hand, distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 0.5 and 4.6 kilometres, with Meru recording lowest and Makueni recording highest distances. The trend in distances covered by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in November 2023 Above At Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Distance from Wajir Baringo Baringo Kwale households to Embu Embu Mandera main water Garissa Garissa Narok sources Isiolo Isiolo Kajiado Kajiado Kilifi Kilifi Kitui Kitui Kwale Laikipia Laikipia Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Marsabit Mandera Meru Marsabit Nyeri Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Turkana Taveta Wajir Tana River West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock distance to water sources in 18 counties is currently below long term average and on an improving trend in 21 counties. Only Laikipia County registered above long term average distances while Kwale and Mandera reported a stable trend as shown in Table 10. The average distance traveled by livestock from grazing areas to water points in arid counties ranged from 2.7 to 10.9 kilometres, with Isiolo reporting the shortest distance and Mandera the longest. The distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 0.6 and 6.1 kilometers, with Meru County recording the lowest and Baringo the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources in November 2023 Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsen LTA LTA ing Distance Laikipia Garissa Baringo Baringo Kwale from Narok Embu Embu Mander livestock Taita Isiolo Garissa a grazing Taveta Kajiado Isiolo area to West Kilifi Kajiado main water Pokot Kitui Kilifi sources Kwale Kitui Makueni Lamu Marsabit Makueni Meru Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Tana River Narok Tharaka Nyeri Nithi Samburu Wajir Tana River 1.6 Terms of Trade About 39 of ASAL counties, including Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Garissa, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Lamu, Wajir and Makueni, recorded below long-term average Terms of Trade, indicating less favorable terms of trade. However, most of these counties recorded an improving trend, Garissa, Kwale, Tana River and Wajir registering a worsening state as illustrated in Table 11. The notable high cereal prices in most of the counties continue to undermine household purchasing power. Table 11: Terms of Trade in November 2023 Terms of Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui Baringo, Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Kajiado Garissa Trade Narok, Tharaka Kwale Embu, Laikipia, Marsabit, Makueni Kwale Nithi, Turkana, Laikipia Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Meru Tana River West Pokot Samburu Garissa, Samburu, Mander Wajir Marsabit, Tana River Nyeri, Taita Tharaka Nithi, a Mandera Meru Taveta Turkana, Lamu, Taita Lamu, Wajir Taveta,West Pokot, Makueni Embu, Kilifi 1.7 Health and Nutrition The health and nutrition situation in majority of the Asals counties was above the long-term average, with only eight counties on a worsening trend. These include Garissa, Makueni, Kwale, Kilifi, Nyeri, Meru, Baringo and Tharaka Nithi. The residual effects of previous failed seasons continue to lead to poor nutrition status in these counties. The local livelihoods are still in recovery mode. The situation is further affected by low milk availability at household level due to reduced livestock numbers and current extreme weather variability as evidenced by Elnino conditions. The nutrition status is as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based on middle upper arm circumference - MUAC-) in November 2023 Baringo Kajiado Embu Embu Isiolo Garissa Garissa Marsabit Narok Kajiado Makueni MUAC Kilifi Narok Samburu Kitui Kwale Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Laikipia Kilifi Laikipia Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Lamu Nyeri Kwale Wajir Mandera Marsabit Meru Makueni West Pokot Tana- Baringo Meru Meru River Tharaka- Nyeri Lamu Turkana Nithi Tana River Taita Taveta Wajir 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 counties are classified at the Normal drought phase. Nine of the counties continue to show an improving trend as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in November 2023 Drought Trend Status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Marsabit, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Alert - - - Alarm - - - Emergency - - - Recovery - - - 3.0 Recommendations 1. Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and shock-responsive cash transfers targeting households affected by floods. 2. Livestock sector: Vaccination against diseases associated with wet conditions such as Rift Valley Fever; Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3. Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. 4. Health and nutrition sector: Support for hygiene and sanitation promotion; Provision of supplies for severe acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food - RUTF) and supplies for moderate acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). 5. Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 6. Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 7. Coordination: Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate El-Nino response activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th November 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS COUNTY Sub VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category County month month values as at as at (3- 29th 26th month) Oct Nov 50 Vegetation greenness 2023 2023 above normal 35 - Normal vegetation 50 greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.07 60.23 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in 73.32 71.64 November. Mogotio maintained normal vegetation Central greenness. North 61.8 67.51 South 54.32 61.33 Ravine 68.81 62.19 Mogotio 39.24 42.35 Tiaty 44.35 59.92 MANDERA County 60.57 73.83 The county remained stable with above normal vegetation Lafey 54.54 71.43 greenness compared October. North 58.58 71.92 Banissa 56.11 67.04 West 56.01 72.45 South 73.54 84.95 East 63.4 65.57 TURKANA County 35.4 50.82 During the month under review, the county recorded East 28.07 37.8 improved to above-normal vegetation greenness from South 29.72 41.24 normal vegetation greenness. Loima 41.47 60.32 Central 47.81 50.72 West 38.85 64.19 North 32.42 47.27 MARSABI County 50.08 65.48 The county recorded above-normal vegetation greenness in T Laisamis 43.28 58.9 November, which was stable compared to October. Moyale 43.58 57.49 North Horr 54.53 70.31 Saku 68.62 81.79 WAJIR County 55.01 55.45 The county maintained above normal vegetation greenness Tarbaj 67.32 73.54 in November, remaining stable. North 57.41 73.14 53.42 45.28 West 47.11 45.14 Eldas 63.26 52.29 58.63 56.82 SAMBURU County 27.7 45.56 The county recorded improvement in vegetation greenness East 26.8 42.28 from moderate vegetation deficit in October to normal North 27.59 50.1 vegetation greenness during the month under review. West 31.81 43.22 GARISSA County 46.09 46.89 The county remained at normal vegetation greenness in Balambala 21.49 25.92 November. Township 30.89 29.39 56.22 66.1 Ijara Fafi 39.61 43.41 Lagdera 69.59 51.69 Dadaab 45.5 43.62 ISIOLO County 59.52 55.06 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness North 55.46 51.25 in November, which was stable when compared to the 65.72 60.89 previous month. TANA County 38.88 38.78 Normal vegetation deficit in November, with Bura Subcounty RIVER Bura 28.38 30.01 registering moderate vegetation greenness. Galole 39.4 37.34 Garsen 47.48 47.11 KAJIADO County 44.72 44.63 Kajiado county recorded improvement in vegetation Central 37.63 36.47 greenness from normal vegetation greenness the previous East 38.36 37.88 month to above normal vegetation greenness during the North 52.73 55.23 month under review. South 36.3 32.09 West 58.11 62.07 LAIKIPIA County 27.19 41.1 Improvement in vegetation greenness form moderate East 28.06 47.75 vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. North 20.41 37.74 39.46 44.17 THARAKA County 56.46 54.63 Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under NITHI Chuka 75.87 69.31 review compared to previous months. Maara 77.6 59.71 Tharaka 42.39 47.47 WEST County 42.91 57.97 Improvement in vegetation greenness from normal the POKOT Kacheliba 35.13 52.07 previous month to above normal vegetation greenness in Kapenguria 49.01 62.69 November. Pokot south 62.11 67.6 Sigor 40.59 59.03 EMBU County 69.41 68.88 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness Manyatta 79.56 71.18 during the month under review. Mbeere 71.5 76.35 Mbeere 60.36 62.09 Runyenjes 87.22 74.85 County 71.91 44.07 The county deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness Kitui central 62.29 60.22 from above normal vegetation greenness during the month Kitui east 73.16 50.95 under review. KITUI Kitui rural 48.81 59.92 Kitui south 54.99 41.46 Kitui west 47.9 47.46 Mwingi 35.33 39.07 Mwingi 55.41 42.27 Mwingi west 71.91 52.18 MAKUENI County 59.84 50.32 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in Kaiti 87.62 75.76 November, which was stable compared to October. Kibwezi east 41.05 35.76 Kibwezi 50.05 45.4 Kilome 65.39 57.04 Makueni 73.83 58.21 Mbooni 86.55 66.38 County 60.0 60.49 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness Buuri 50.75 52.6 across all the sub-counties. Central 56.66 65.05 Igembe 72.73 64.63 MERU Igembe 62.32 63.75 Igembe 55.11 62.81 North Imenti 63.39 65.05 South 73.79 63.93 Tigania east 79.88 58.82 Tigania west 53.62 58.99 County 64.78 58.4 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in NYERI Kieni 55.22 54.3 November. Mathira 73.09 58.61 Mukurweini 80.53 62.89 Nyeri town 51.46 48.76 Othaya 85.78 72.98 Tetu 81.66 67.42 County 41.72 39.98 The county retained Normal vegetation greenness in Ganze 32.89 33.15 November. However, Ganze Sub-county remained the same KILIFI Kaloleni 47.16 46.43 at moderate vegetation deficit. Kilifi north 53.66 51.96 Kilifi south 53.78 48.46 Magarini 41.52 39.4 Malindi 53.29 47.81 Rabai 54.33 50.52 County 51.16 51.67 Above normal vegetation greenness in November, which was KWALE Kinango 46.09 43.99 stable compared to the previous month. Lunga 51.34 60.77 Lunga Matuga 70.57 65.54 Msambweni 60.64 63.91 LAMU County 70.39 74.97 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in Lamu east 54.62 61.77 vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness Lamu west 79.51 82.6 in November. TAITA County 29.22 26.75 The county retained moderate vegetation deficit in TAVETA Mwatate 29.05 26.18 November. Taveta 30.93 25.6 Voi 28.78 27.42 Wundanyi 26.64 26.44 County 56.7 64.27 Above normal vegetation greenness in November when Emurua 75.88 81.97 compared to the last month of October NAROK Dikirr Kilgoris 57.84 68.91 Narok east 43.35 47.76 Narok north 46.37 45.91 Narok south 58.43 64.52 Narok west 63.92 76.62 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification",
            "December_2023.pdf": "December 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview Majority of the Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties experienced rainfall over the first ten days of December, albeit with reduced intensity compared to November. However, most of the ASAL counties registered cessation of the October-November-December rains during the month under review, except. Consequently, all the counties were categorised under the Normal drought phase based on the range of indicators monitored (environmental, production, access and utilisation indicators fell within usual ranges). The assessment of the impact of 2023 Long Rains on food and nutrition security conducted last July 2023 projected that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance from October 2023 through January 2024 period would be 1.5 million due to above normal rainfall. However, negative impacts of the enhanced rainfall in some counties has undermined the food and nutrition security situation. Response interventions by the Government and other stakeholders mitigated the negative impacts to a considerable extent. The functioning of markets as well as flow of food and other commodities is returning to normal Figure 1: Drought phase classification in December 2023 across the ASAL counties. The planned multi-sectoral assessment of the performance of the October-December short rains on food and nutrition security will provide the actual number of people in need of humanitarian assistance. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 December 2023 Rainfall Performance The month of December normally marks the cessation of the short rains season. Analysis of the rainfall performance in December indicates that most ASAL counties received less rainfall compared to November. Generally, dry weather conditions were prevalent in most places, with a few areas over the Southeastern lowlands and the Coastal region experiencing occasional rainfall that was near to above average. Marsabit, Narok and Wajir recorded rainfall amounts that were below 25 of normal, with Mandera not receiving any rainfall over that period. Garissa, Laikipia, Moyale and Nyeri counties recorded amounts that were 28-37 of normal, while rainfall reported in some parts of Figure 2: Rainfall performance Kilifi such as Malindi and Embu was about 60 of the long term mean. Among the areas that experienced near-normal rainfall ranging from 90 to 115 of normal were Voi, Meru and Kitui. Some counties experienced above-normal (enhanced) rainfall. These include parts of Kilifi such as Mtwapa and Msabaha, and Lamu whose percentages ranged from 165 to 180 of the usual rainfall. The highest monthly total rainfall exceeding 225mm was recorded in Embu and Taita Taveta counties. Additionally, isolated storms were witnessed in some areas, especially in the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) cluster such as Kitui, where rainfall ranging from 125 to 135mm was recorded in one day. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for January 2024 The rainfall outlook for January is as shown in Figure 3. Sunny and dry conditions are expected to prevail for most of the month over several parts. Most parts of the Northern Pastoral cluster are expected to remain generally dry, though a few areas may experience occasional rainfall during the last week of the month. These include a few areas in Narok (near-to-above normal), the south-eastern lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta), Nyeri, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Embu and the coastal region (Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and the Southern parts of Tana River). A few areas over Southern Garissa are likely to receive occasional rainfall from the third week of the month. Light to moderate rainfall is expected during the fourth week of January in a few areas over West Pokot, Baringo, and Western parts of Laikipia. Turkana and Samburu counties are expected to experience temperatures ranging from 30 to 40 degrees Celsius, with a few areas anticipated to receive rainfall at the beginning of the month and over the fourth week. Intermittent rainfall likely to be near-to-above the long-term average amounts is expected across January in Nyeri, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and eastern parts of Laikipia. Sunny conditions are forecasted for counties in the Pastoral Northeast cluster, with a few areas in Southern Garissa bordering Lamu likely to experience occasional rainfall from the third week. Near-to-above long-term average rainfall amount is expected in the Southeastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta) and Figure 3: Rainfall forecast for January 2024 Coastal Strip (Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) over January 2024. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Significant improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed across December in all the ASAL counties, with dense canopies evident over most areas due to the cumulative rainfall across the October to December season. Consequently, all the counties presented either normal or above normal vegetation greenness. This was a notable improvement from the previous period, especially in Taita Taveta which had moderate vegetation deficit in November. All counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness while a few sub-counties including Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East), Wajir (West, Eldas), Garissa (Balambala, Township) and Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta) reported normal vegetation greenness as illustrated in Table 1. Generally, the vegetation condition in December depicted further improvement from November as shown in Figure 4. November 2023 December 2023 Figure 4: Comparison of Vegetation Condition in November and December 2023 A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at the end of December 2023 is as illustrated in Table 1 disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in December 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe Vegetation (0) (0) Moderate Vegetation (0) (0) Normal Vegetation (0) (8) Greenness Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East), Wajir (West, Eldas), Garissa (Balambala, Township), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta) Above-normal (23) (105) Vegetation Greenness Baringo, Mandera Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine,Tiaty,South), Mandera (South, Wajir, Marsabit, North, East, Lafey, Banisa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South and Garissa, Embu, Kitui, East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku, Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Ijara, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Lagdera, Fafi, Daadab), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, South and Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Narok, Isiolo, Turkana, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Garissa, Tana River, Makueni, Mbooni, Kibwezi East), Meru (Buuri, Central-Imenti, Igembe Kajiado, West Pokot, Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania Samburu, Taita Taveta, East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Laikipia Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai, Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North), West Pokot (Pokot South, Kacheliba, Kapenguria and Sigor), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Central, West, Loima, South, East, North), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen, Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South, North, West), Samburu (East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi), Laikipia (East, North, West) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of pasture and browse improved further with all the counties reporting good and above normal, save for Turkana and West Pokot as shown in Table 2. Consequently, dense canopies of browse were observed across all the areas, which was attributed to the enhanced rainfall, leading to massive vegetation regeneration. Table 2: Pasture and Browse Condition - December 2023 Pasture Browse Turkana Garissa, Kajiado, Meru Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi West Pokot Kilifi, Makueni, Nyeri Makueni, Narok, Samburu Narok, Samburu Turkana, West Pokot Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu, Wajir Wajir, Laikipia, Kwale Laikipia, Mandera, Kwale Mandera, Marsabit Marsabit, Nyeri, Tana River Tana River, Embu Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Improved forage availability resulted in significant improvement of the body condition of all livestock species in December compared to November. Across majority of the counties, the body condition score for both cattle and small stock (sheep and goats) as captured through the pictorial evaluation tool (PET) was 4-5, implying good-to-very good body condition (Table 3). Reduced trekking distance to water sources resulting from adequate recharge of open water sources in close proximity to grazing areas also contributed to the favourable livestock body condition. The observed livestock body condition was above the long term range due to the good quality of forage. Table 3: Livestock Body Condition - December 2023 Cattle GoatsSheep West Pokot Garissa, Kajiado Nyeri Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi Nyeri Kilifi, Makueni, Narok Makueni, Narok, Kitui Samburu, Samburu, Turkana Turkana, Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu West Pokot, Isiolo, Lamu Wajir, Laikipia, Kwale Wajir, Laikipia, Mandera Mandera, Marsabit Kwale, Marsabit, Embu Tana River, Meru Tana River, Meru Tharaka Nithi, Embu Tharaka Nithi 1.3.3 Milk production About 52 of ASAL counties recorded an increase in milk production in December, with approximately 35 reporting unchanged milk production levels. However, Samburu, Lamu and West Pokot reported a decline in milk production, which is attributed to livestock diseases (suspected foot and mouth in West Pokot), diminishing pasture in some sites, migration of livestock from insecure areas, low livestock numbers occasioned by mortalities, among other factors (Table 4). Milk produced in approximately 39 of the counties was below the respective long-term average while about 17 of the counties reported unchanged quantities across the two periods. Notably, 44 of the counties recorded production that was above the usual range for the period. Stable or increase in milk production in the aforementioned 61 of the counties could be attributed to the increasing number of lactating herds and improved yield level per livestock occasioned by forage and water availability within shorter trekking distances. Table 4: Milk production - December 2023 Baringo, Lamu, Laikipia Garissa Garissa, Meru Baringo Samburu Isiolo Nyeri, Marsabit Isiolo, Nyeri Turkana Lamu Mandera Taita- Samburu Mandera Wajir West Pokot Turkana Taveta, Tana River Marsabit Embu Wajir, Kitui Kajiado Embu, Kilifi Tana River Kwale Makueni Kwale, Meru Kajiado Laikipia Narok West Pokot Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Outbreak of sheep and goat pox and suspected foot and mouth disease was reported in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang) and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura and Nkareta ward in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South and Narok North Sub-counties respectively). Upsurge of listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was reported in Waso ward, Samburu County. Equally outbreak of Rift Valley Fever was reported in Wajir with 52 of the 275 samples tested returning a positive for RVF. In Mandera, cases of camel deaths were reported Banissa and Lafey but the cause of death was yet to be ascertained. For large stock, cases of tsetse flies have been noted, especially in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit while rabies outbreak was also reported in Tigo(Marsabit). 1.3.5 Cattle prices A significant proportion of counties (43) recorded an improvement in cattle prices compared to November, with roughly 52 reporting prices that were typically the same as those recorded in December (Table 5). On the other hand, the reported market prices of cattle across all the counties were above the corresponding long-term average in December, except in West Pokot (due to the ripple effect of market disruption occasioned by imposition of quarantine to contain the spread of foot and mouth disease) while the one recorded in Nyeri and Taita Taveta was at par with the respective normal price. The observed positive trend in cattle prices could be attributed to the low traded volumes driven by pastoralists holding onto their valued assets and remarkably improved cattle body condition occasioned by availability of pasture in majority of the areas. Table 5: Cattle prices in December 2023 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Taita- West- Garissa, Isiolo Baringo, Lamu West Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Taveta, Pokot Samburu, Embu Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Nyeri Tana River Marsabit Samburu, Embu Turkana Wajir, Kajiado Tana River, Narok Kwale, Makueni Kilifi, Kitui Turkana, Kajiado Narok, Nyeri Laikipia, Meru Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Taita Taveta Laikipia, Lamu Tharaka Nithi Makueni, Meru 1.3.6 Goat Prices There was a notable improvement in the price of goats across majority of the ASAL counties over the period under review, with 48 reporting an upward trend while 43 reported stability (Table 6). Due to the increased influx to the market with the anticipated cessation of the short rains, a negative trend was reported in Garissa and Laikipia. With respect to the long-term average price of goat, the reported prices during the month of December were above by a significant margin exceeding 20 in majority of the areas. The major factors influencing the observed price improvement include high demand triggered by low supplies in the market occasioned by reluctance by pastoralists to sell, market disruption as a consequence of the prevailing ElNio phenomenon, and considerably improved goat body condition driven by availability of quality palatable browse were. Table 6: Goat prices - December 2023 Above LTA At Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Narok Nyeri - Isiolo, Makueni Baringo Garissa Isiolo, Mandera, Meru Mandera, Embu Samburu Laikipia Marsabit, Samburu Marsabit Wajir Tana River, Lamu Tana River Kilifi, Kitui Turkana, Wajir, Kitui Turkana Kwale, Lamu, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kajiado, Nyeri Meru Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Taita Taveta Narok Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and the Southeast Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of Tana, Daua and Turkwel rivers, among others. Generally, crop production activities were affected to a large extent by the flooding witnessed, with over 50,398 acres of farmland destroyed. The table below illustrates the situation across select ASAL counties. Table 7: Current status of crop production. Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Southeast Kitui Crop performance was largely affected by effects of leaching, with harvest projected to Marginal drop by about 50. Cases of pests resistant to drugs on legumes, particularly affecting cow peas and green Agriculture grams, were reported. Makueni Farmers along flooded rivers and upper zones of the county incurred crop losses due to water logging, with approximately 37,000 acres of irrigated land destroyed by floods. Presence of Fall Armyworm was also reported in Mbooni Sub-county. Meru Maize crop was stunted in parts of the Agropastoral Zone such as Lothera, Kandebene and Nkiluthu in Tigania West, Ithata and Kamweline in Igembe North and lower parts of Igembe Central, with below-average harvest expected. The stunted maize could be attributed to water logging due to the heavy rains received. Similarly, beans in various parts were destroyed by the floods experienced. Pastoral Garissa There was decline in area under crop production by over 30 due to the effect of floods Northeast and farmers also incurred losses in terms of destroyed irrigation infrastructure and loss of livelihoods. Tana More than 7,285 acres of cropland under rain-fed production had been submerged by River flash floods, resulting in extensive damage to the crops due to lack of oxygen. 1.4.1 Maize prices About 30 of the counties reported a decline in maize prices, while 57 recorded price stabilisation compared to November as Tana River, Embu and Laikipia counties reported increased prices across December (Table 8). The price increase in aforementioned counties was due to the negative impacts of the El Nino phenomenon that resulted in the counties being cut off from external supply sources, low crop yield in some areas attributable to the impact of pests, and other macro-economic factors. Concerningly, the reported prices across all the ASAL counties was higher than the corresponding long-term average prices for the period under analysis, except in Kwale and Lamu. Table 8: Maize prices in December 2023. Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Baringo, Garissa Kwale Garissa, Nyeri Baringo Tana River Isiolo, Mandera Lamu Marsabit Isiolo, Meru Embu Marsabit, Samburu Wajir, Kwale Mandera Laikipia Tana River, Turkana Makueni, Samburu Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Tharaka- Nithi Turkana Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia Kajiado Makueni, Meru, Nyeri Kilifi, Kitui Narok, Taita Taveta Lamu, Narok West Pokot West Pokot 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households The trekking distance to water sources by households majorly remained unchanged in about 52 of counties but slightly increased in 30 (Table 9). The distances ranged between 0.9 and 7.3 kilometres compared to the previous 1.2 to 7.7 kilometres, with the longest distance of 7.3 kilometres and 6.2 kilometres being recorded in Mandera and Marsabit respectively while the lowest of 0.9 kilometres was reported in Meru. Contrary to the previous month, households trekked over shorter distances than the usual to access water across majority of the counties as illustrated in Table 9. The slight reduction in trekking distance relative to the previous month could be attributed to the improved water availability occasioned by adequate recharge (averaging 90-100) in open water sources. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources - December 2023. Isiolo Baringo, Garissa Kitui Baringo, Isiolo Garissa Turkana Mandera, Marsabit Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kwale Samburu, Wajir Nyeri, Tana River Samburu Lamu Tana River, Embu Tharaka- Nithi Turkana, Wajir Laikipia Nyeri, Kajiado, Kilifi Embu, Kajiado Meru Taita- Taveta Kitui, Makueni Kilifi, Kwale Narok Laikipia Meru, Narok Lamu West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances were relatively the same as the previous month. Consequently, the distance ranged between one to 9.5 kilometres compared to 0.6-10.9 kilometres previously. The longest distance of 9.5 kilometres was recorded in Mandera while the shortest at one kilometre was reported in Meru. However, about 35 of the counties recorded a marginal increase mainly attributed to insecurity and high prevalence of livestock diseases in some grazing zones. Additionally, the prevailing distance was lower than the corresponding normal distance that livestock usually trek to access water in all the counties, except Laikipia and West Pokot (Table 10). Regeneration of forage encompassing shrubs and herbaceous species in sites around water points necessitated livestock to graze within those zones, hence the witnessed trend. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources - December 2023. Laikipia Baringo Garissa, Isiolo Isiolo Baringo Garissa, Meru West Pokot Turkana Mandera, Marsabit Mandera Wajir, Embu Marsabit Kitui Samburu, Kajiado Tana River Kilifi, Kitui Samburu Makueni Tana River, Wajir Lamu Kwale, Nyeri Turkana Nyeri, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale Narok Makueni Kajiado, Laikipia, Taita- Taveta Lamu, Meru, Narok Tharaka- Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.6 Terms of Trade The terms of trade improved and remained unchanged compared to the previous month in 57 and 30 of the counties respectively while Tana River, Laikipia and Kitui recorded a slight deterioration (Table 11). Therefore, pastoral households in the latter three counties remained disadvantaged due to the unfavourable terms of trade, implying they accessed reduced amount of maize through use of proceeds obtained from their most valued assets. The observed negative trend in these three counties could majorly be attributed to the rising cost of maize over December due to destruction of the road infrastructure following the enhanced rainfall, thereby affecting normal market functionality. Table 11: Terms of trade in December 2023. Isiolo, Mandera Samburu Baringo, Embu Garissa, Isiolo Baringo Tana River Marsabit, Turkana Lamu Garissa, Kitui Mandera, Wajir Samburu Kitui Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale Tana River Marsabit, Kilifi Embu Laikipia Makueni, Narok Kajiado, Meru Turkana, Narok Kwale Tharaka Nithi Laikipia, Nyeri Kajiado, Nyeri Lamu Taita Taveta Makueni Meru West Pokot Taita Taveta West Pokot The terms of trade remained below the usual range in 48 of the counties and above the long- term average in 43. Overall, there was an improvement despite the household purchasing power remaining low in the select counties, majorly constrained by the impacts of the El Nino phenomenon. 1.7. Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was on an improving trend and stabilised in about 52 and 43 of the counties respectively but worsened in West Pokot (Table 12). The stable to negative trend in the listed counties could be attributed to the high disease burden such as diarrhea prevalence among children below five years, reduced milk consumption and poor dietary diversity occasioned by the high cost of living and El Nino phenomenon that hindered access to markets, and the general downscaling of nutrition-sensitive interventions. The nutrition situation remains a major concern in about 39 of the counties, which are currently reporting malnutrition rates outside the usual range. These include: Baringo, Garissa, Tana River, Turkana, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni and Nyeri (Kieni). Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition based on middle-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) measurement in December 2023 Baringo, Kilifi Marsabit Isiolo, Kwale, Samburu Baringo, Meru Marsabit, Samburu West Pokot Garissa, Kitui Lamu, Meru Wajir, Embu, Narok Garissa, Isiolo, Narok, Tana River, Turkana Tana River Kajiado Taita Taveta Mandera, Wajir, Nyeri Kitui, Lamu, Makueni Turkana, Nyeri Mandera Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Laikipia, Taita Embu, Kwale, Laikipia, West Pokot Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Makueni 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with an improving to stable trend as shown in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification - December 2023 Drought Status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Marsabit, Isiolo, Taita Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Turkana, West Pokot Taveta Mandera, Meru North, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Nyeri, Lamu, Laikipia, Narok, Samburu, Kitui, Embu Alert - - - Alarm - - - Emergency - - Recovery - - - 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions. No. Sector Intervention 1. Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor the drought situation given the expected dry conditions between Jan-March 2024. 2. Food and safety Provision of food assistance and shock-responsive cash transfers targeting nets vulnerable groups. 3. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. 4. Livestock sector Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate migration and access to markets. 5. Health and Support for hygiene and sanitation promotion; Provision of supplies for severe acute nutrition sector malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food - RUTF) and supplies for moderate acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). 6. Peace and Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogue and resource-use agreements; security sector Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 7. Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st December 2023. County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 VCI values Colour Drought Category month month (3-month) as at 30th as at 31st Vegetation greenness Nov Dec above normal 2023 2023 Normal vegetation 35 - 50 greenness Moderate vegetation 20 - 35 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation Baringo County 60.23 62.35 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Central 71.64 64.2 remained above normal across all the Sub-counties, except Mogotio that recorded normal vegetation North 67.51 67.05 greenness. South 61.33 65.01 Ravine 62.19 52.93 Mogotio 42.35 47.29 Tiaty 59.92 65.49 Mandera County 73.83 84.47 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Lafey 71.43 86.16 remained above normal across all the Sub counties. North 71.92 87.08 Banissa 67.04 80.6 West 72.45 82.27 South 84.95 87.9 East 65.57 72.11 Turkana County 50.82 60.9 Save for Turkana East, all Sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness, including East 37.8 40.12 Turkana South and North whose vegetation condition South 41.24 54.15 was within the normal band over the previous month. Loima 60.32 77.64 Central 50.72 50.47 West 64.19 80.4 North 47.27 55.57 Marsabit County 65.48 83.7 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Laisamis 58.9 84.16 Moyale 57.49 77.37 North Horr 70.31 84.34 Saku 81.79 96.65 Wajir County 55.45 62.77 Continued improvement in the condition of vegetation was observed over December, with the vegetation Tarbaj 73.54 76.59 greenness ranging from Normal to Above Normal North 73.14 82.63 across the respective Sub-counties. South 45.28 57.03 West 45.14 46.92 Eldas 52.29 49.72 Wajir East 56.82 68.13 Samburu County 45.56 65.49 All Sub-counties reported above normal vegetation greenness and that represented a remarkable shift East 42.28 62.92 from the normal vegetation greenness previously North 50.1 71.27 noted across the county. West 43.22 55.83 Garissa County 46.89 61.21 Considerable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in December, with the Balambala 25.92 49.41 vegetation greenness being above normal across Township 29.39 46.37 most sub-counties. Only Balambala and Township Ijara 66.1 74.14 Sub-counties reported normal vegetation greenness, Fafi 43.41 63.06 a shift from the moderate vegetation deficit observed Lagdera 51.69 57.01 across November. Dadaab 43.62 55.17 Isiolo County 55.06 67.15 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub-counties. North 51.25 65.63 South 60.89 69.47 Tana River County 38.78 58.99 Notable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in December with the vegetation Bura 30.01 51.38 greenness being above normal. Bura Sub-county Galole 37.34 58.16 recorded a significant improvement from the moderate Garsen 47.11 65.97 vegetation deficit reported in November. Kajiado County 44.63 64.4 Central 36.47 59.72 The county reported above normal vegetation greenness, with a significant improvement being East 37.88 59.61 witnessed in Kajiado South which was experiencing North 55.23 64.33 moderate vegetation deficit across November. South 32.09 61.43 West 62.07 71.51 Embu County 68.88 70.62 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Manyatta 71.18 70.92 Mbeere North 76.35 75.84 Mbeere South 62.09 67.23 Runyenjes 74.85 71.14 Kitui County 44.07 57.79 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the sub-counties. Central 60.22 63.59 East 50.95 60.48 Rural 59.92 64.73 South 41.46 58.01 West 47.46 58.54 Mwingi Central 39.07 53.41 Mwingi North 42.27 55.17 Mwingi West 52.18 66.23 Makueni County 50.32 62.72 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kaiti 75.76 76.26 Remarkable recovery in vegetation condition was Kibwezi East 35.76 53.73 witnessed in Kibwezi East Sub county over the Kibwezi West 45.4 63.69 reference period. Kilome 57.04 64.37 Makueni 58.21 67.22 Mbooni 66.38 67.62 Meru County 60.49 67.23 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties Buuri 52.6 65.94 Central-Imenti 65.05 65.59 Igembe Central 64.63 70.82 Igembe North 63.75 76.87 Igembe South 62.81 66.35 North Imenti 65.05 58.54 South Imenti 63.93 63.59 Tigania East 58.82 64.48 Tigania West 58.99 60.44 Nyeri County 58.4 62.9 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the sub-counties, Kieni 54.3 63.65 with improvement being noted in Nyeri Town Sub- Mathira 58.61 59.27 Mukurweini 62.89 63.33 Nyeri Town 48.76 59.13 Othaya 72.98 67.98 Tetu 67.42 60.24 Kilifi County 39.98 54.64 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed Ganze 33.15 53.73 Kaloleni 46.43 61.48 Kilifi North 51.96 57.64 Kilifi South 48.46 52.43 Magarini 39.4 53.84 Malindi 47.81 56.16 Rabai 50.52 58.55 Kwale County 51.67 65.67 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties, with Kinango 43.99 62.45 Kinango equally reporting a significant shift in the Lunga Lunga 60.77 73.94 condition of vegetation. Matuga 65.54 63.46 Msambweni 63.91 69.99 Lamu County 74.97 76.63 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties. Lamu East 61.77 69.15 Lamu West 82.6 80.96 Taita Taveta County 26.75 51.44 As a consequence of the enhanced rainfall received in the county, remarkable recovery in the condition of Mwatate 26.18 47.3 vegetation from the previous period (when moderate Taveta 25.6 46.75 vegetation deficit was recorded) was reported over all Voi 27.42 54.14 the sub-counties. Wundanyi 26.44 56.89 Narok County 64.27 73.36 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Emurua Dikirr 81.97 91.63 Kilgoris 68.91 78 Narok East 47.76 62.44 Narok North 45.91 58.95 Narok South 64.52 72 Narok West 76.62 82.96 West Pokot County 57.97 64.29 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kacheliba 52.07 59.81 Kapenguria 62.69 67.14 Pokot South 67.6 68.85 Sigor 59.03 67.34 Tharaka Nithi County 54.63 58.25 Vegetation greenness remained above normal across all Sub counties similar to the previous month, with Chuka 69.31 71.78 some slight improvement being noted in Tharaka Sub- Maara 59.71 62.45 Tharaka 47.47 51.81 Laikipia County 41.1 62.22 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed Laikipia East 47.75 71.98 Laikipia North 37.74 63.25 Laikipia West 44.17 55.57 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification"
        },
        "DEWS_2024": {
            "January_2024.pdf": "January 2024 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The range of environmental, production, access and utilisation indicators monitored by the national drought early warning system fell within their usual ranges following the good performance of the 2023 short rains season. Consequently, All the 23 counties classified as Arid and Semi-Arid lands (ASALs) were categorised under the Normal phase in January. However, the emergence of other risks associated with the enhanced rainfall such as Rift Valley Fever (RVF) reported in Marsabit and Wajir counties continued to undermine full drought and food security recovery. The functioning of markets, flow of food and other commodities almost stabilised across the ASAL counties during the month under review. However, upsurge of livestock diseases such as RVF, Foot and Mouth Disease, among others, may restrict livestock movements to these markets, thus disrupting functionality. The ongoing multi-sectoral assessment of the impact of the 2023 short rains on food and nutrition security will provide a clearer situation update, including the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance. Figure 1: Drought phase classification in January 2024. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 January 2024 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the northern sector except a few areas over Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana, Kitui, Tana river, Taita taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and West pokot where rainfall was experienced for a few days. The southern sector of the country experienced rainfall that was near to above average except over the Coastal region and parts of the Southeastern lowlands where below average rainfall was recorded. The month was characterized by isolated storms over the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, the Southeastern lowlands, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, South Rift Valley, the South Coast (Kwale) and Northeast (Isiolo). Figure 2: January 2024 Rainfall Performance. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for February 2024 The rainfall outlook for February is as shown in Figure 3. The forecast indicates that the Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo and Garissa counties will experience generally sunny and dry conditions during the month. Temperatures are also likely to be above average over several parts of the country, except parts of the southeastern lowlands, where normal temperatures are expected. Figure 3: February Rainfall Forecast. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Vegetation Condition remains normal across ASAL counties, with dense canopies evident over most areas due to the cumulative rainfall across the October to December season. Consequently, all the counties presented normal vegetation greenness, thus stable vegetation condition as shown in Figure 4. December 2023 January 2024 Figure 4: Comparison of vegetation condition in December 2023 and January 2024. Table 1 provides a summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties (disaggregated by sub-county) as at the end of January 2024. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) Moderate (0) (0) Normal (0) (6) Vegetation Baringo (Mogotio) Greenness Turkana:(Turkana East,Central and North) Garissa (Balambala, Township) Above-normal (20) (109) Vegetation Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Embu: (Manyatta Mbeere North Mbeere South, Greenness Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Runyenjes) Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado: (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East, Kajiado North, West Pokot, Narok, Mandera, Kajiado South, Kajiado West) Marsabit, Samburu,Tana River, Kilifi: (Ganze,Kaloleni,Kilifi North,Kilifi South, Magarini, Turkana, Wajir Malindi, Rabai) Kitui: (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Kwale: (Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia: (Laikipia East, Laikipia North, Laikipia West) Lamu: (Lamu East,Lamu West) Makueni:(Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru: (Buuri,Central Imenti,Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti,Tigania East,Tigania West) Nyeri:(Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, NyeriTown, Othaya, Tetu) Taita Taveta: (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Tharaka Natha: (ChukaIgambangombe, Maara, Tharaka). West Pokot: (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Narok: (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok East, Narok North, Narok South, Narok West). Mandera:(Lafey, Mandera North, Banissa, Mandera West, Mandera South, Mandera East). Marsabit: (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku). Samburu:(Samburu East, Samburu North, Samburu West) Tana River: (Bura, Galole, Garsen). Turkana:(Turkana South, Loima,T urkana West). Wajir:(Tarbaj, Wajir North, Wajir South, Wajir West, Eldas, Wajir East) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally good to fair over the reference period. Approximately 78 of the ASAL counties reported good condition of pasture and 22 reported fair while 91 good browse condition and 9 reported fair (Table 2) due to the regeneration that was driven by the rainfall received during the previous month. The observed fair condition could be attributed to presence of invasive species such as Cossus Rotundia (Raraiti) that smothered the natural regeneration of the palatable species in regions such as Samburu and parts of Marsabit, heat effect in January and heavy flooding in grazing lands. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition Pasture Browse Poor Fair Good Poor Fair Good Baringo Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Tana River Baringo,Garissa, Isiolo,Mandera Tana River Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana Marsabit,Samburu, Wajir, Embu, Turkana Wajir, Embu, Kajiado, Kajiado,Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipa, Narok Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Nyeri, Taita West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for all species was generally good across ASAL counties, with 58 reporting good body condition and 22 fair body condition for cattle. 96 reported good condition for goat and sheep while 4 reported fair. The positive trend was due to availability of abundant pasture and access to water within shorter distances. The observed livestock body across January was normal to above normal compared to the long term mean. Table 3: Livestock body condition Cattle GoatsSheep Poo Fair Good Poor Fair Good Turkana, Kitui Baringo, Garissa Nyeri Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Makueni, Narok Isiolo, Mandera Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu West Pokot Marsabit, Wajir Tana River, Wajir, Turkana, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Narok, Embu Tana River, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Kajiado, Laikipai, Lamu, Makueni Kilifi, Kwale, Meru, West Pokot, Kilifi Laikipai, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Taita 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production remained stable compared to the previous month, with most of the arid counties reporting below milk production compared to long term average. This is attributed to low tropical units following livestock mortality experienced during the previous failed seasons. During the period under review, Samburu reported the lowest average milk production at 0.4 litres from the sampled households in Arid counties, while Embu reported the lowest average milk production at 0.6 litres among semi-arid counties. Table 4: Milk production Isiolo, Nyeri, Embu Garissa, Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Tana Mandera,Turkana Laikipia Samburu, Tana Mandera, Wajir River, Embu, Wajir, Narok, Meru River, Kilifi, Kitui Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Taita Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Lamu, Makueni, Taveta, Tharaka Narok, Nyeri Garissa, Marsabit, Nithi, West Pokot Turkana, Tharaka 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Outbreak of sheep and goat pox and suspected foot and mouth disease was reported in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang) and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura and Nkareta Wards in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South and Narok North Sub- Counties respectively). Upsurge of listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was reported in Waso Ward, Samburu County while outbreak of Rift Valley Fever was reported in Marsabit and Wajir with 52 of the 275 samples tested returning a positive for RVF in Wajir. In Mandera, cases of camel deaths were reported in Banissa and Lafey but the cause of death was yet to be ascertained. For large stock, cases of tsetse flies have been noted, especially in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit while rabies outbreak was also reported in Tigo, Marsabit County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Cattle prices remained stable across ASAL counties compared to the previous month. The observed low prices were occasioned by the low demand due to increased supply of the species to the markets as farmers sought to raise funds to meet beginning of year academic needs and other household expenses. Notably, the stable-to-improving trend in the other areas was driven by good cattle body condition that enabled pastoralists to earn more. Notably, the recorded prices across all counties were above the corresponding usual prices for the period, with good body condition, vibrant market participation, scarcity in markets due to hoarding and low volumes, and high demand for cattle meat being cited as factors sustaining the above normal prices. Table 5: Cattle prices Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Taita Taveta - Garissa, Baringo, Mandera, Tana - Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Samburu Marsabit, Nyeri River, Turkana Turkana, Wajir Embu,Narok Embu, Narok, Kajiado Wajir ,Taita Taveta, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Isiolo, Samburu, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru Laikipia, Lamu, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi,Nyeri Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices remained stable across ASAL counties as result of good livestock body condition. Oversupply in markets caused by the need to raise school fees and to meet household needs had negative effect on prices. The favorable trend in these countries was impacted by high export demand and browse availability. The prevalent market price of goats across all counties was above usual rates for the period, which could be attributed to persistent improvement in the body condition of goat following good rains. Table 6: Goat prices Above LTA At Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera Kitu Baringo, Garissa, Tana River Isiolo, Turkana Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River Nyeri Marsabit, Wajir, Embu, Mandera Kwale, Meru Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu Narok, Taita Kilifi ,West Pokot, Kwale,Laikipia Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Nyeri Taveta, Tharaka Lamu,Makueni, Meru,Narok Nithi, West Pokot Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production are usually carried out in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel, among others. Table 7 illustrates the crop production situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Kitui Majority of crops were at harvesting stage and in good-fair condition. Marginal However, farmers are anticipating below average harvests due to Agriculture withering, crop pests and flash floods. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva and Thua) had horticultural crops under irrigation at various stages of development. Makueni Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county were counting crop losses due to water logging. The most affected areas were Kawese village in Kasikeu ward of Kilome Sub-county and KakoWaia Ward in Mbooni Sub-county where maize crop had stunted growth due to sandy soil leaching nutrients, affecting approximately 132 Ha and 272 families. Meru Maize crop is good in most parts of the county and currently at the grain filling stage nearing maturity. Near normal harvest is expected in the last week of February in most areas, except the Rainfed Cropping Zones of Tigania East and parts of the Agropastoral Zone such as Lothera, Kandebene and Nkiluthu in Tigania West, Ithata and Kamweline in Igembe North, and lower parts of Igembe Central where beans crop was destroyed by flooding. The ongoing harvests of beans are gradually improving household food availability while reducing market reliance, while agricultural labour opportunities are improving household access to income and purchasing power. Agropastoral Baringo Infestation of Fall Armyworms was observed in Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub-counties, leading to reduced yield. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable as harvesting was ongoing and are expected to reduce after harvesting. Notably, the prevailing prices over January were above the respective long-term average for Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu and Tana River, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Nyeri and Narok ,which could be attributed to minimal production during the earlier successive failed rainfall seasons, high transport costs due to high fuel prices and increased demand for the commodity. Table 8: Maize prices Above LTA Atclose Below Improving Stable Worsening to LTA LTA Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Kwale Kajiado Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Tana Kitui,Taita Taveta Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Narok Turkana, Wajir River, Samburu, West Pokot, Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Garissa, Marsabit Embu, Lamu, Kajiado, Meru, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, West Makueni, Narok, Laikipia Pokot,Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Tharaka Nyeri, Narok Nithi, Kilifi, Kwale 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distance to water source for household remained stable compared to the previous month. Mandera recorded the longest trekking distance for arid counties at 8.6Km and Samburu the shortest at 5.6km return distance. Tharaka Nithi recorded the longest distance at 4.3 Km for semi-arid counties while Nyeri recording the lowest at 1.2 Km among semi-arid counties. Lower than normal trekking distances were boosted by recharge of water facilities over the October to December short rains period, coupled with erratic showers experienced in January, albeit in select areas. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources Isiolo Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit Kwale, Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, - Turkana Wajir, Marsabit, Samburu Kajiado Lamu Turkana, , Samburu, Wajir, Taita Taveta Tana River, Embu, Kajiado Narok Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia Taita Taveta Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nithi, West Pokot, Embu, Nyeri Narok, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance covered by livestock from grazing areas to water points remained stable across ASAL counties. The positive trend was attributable to the enhanced short rains. Consequently, among the arid counties, the distance averaged 7.3 Kms compared to 6.7Kms recorded in December 2023. The longest return trekking distance of 10.8 Kms was reported in Turkana and Mandera, while the shortest distance was recorded in Tana River County at 3.2 Kms. On the other hand, the distance ranged between 1.8 Kms and 4.3 Kms in the semi- arid counties, with the longest distance recorded in Kitui while the shortest was reported in Kilifi. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo, Narok Garissa, Samburu, Isiolo, Tana River Marsabit Baringo, Garissa Makueni, West Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir Kajiado, Taita Nyeri Isiolo, Samburu Pokot, Turkana Tana River, Embu, Taveta Laikipia Turkana, Wajir Meru, Laikipia Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui, Mandera, Embu, Kwale, Nyeri, Tharaka Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui, Nithi, Taita Taveta Kwale, Meru, Narok, Makueni, Tharaka 1.6 Terms of Trade Stability in the terms of trade was noted across the counties. Among the arid counties, the lowest terms of trade of 40 and 42 was reported in Garissa and Turkana respectively, while Nyeri recorded the lowest of 61 among semi-arid counties. Compared to the long-term average, the terms of trade were favorable. Marsabit County reported the highest terms of trade at 91.8 while Tharaka Nithi returned the highest of 115 among the semi-arid counties. The improved terms of trade are as result of ongoing harvests, which are stablising prices. Table 11: Terms of Trade Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana Baringo, Marsabit Tana River, Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo River, Embu, Garissa, Wajir Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kilifi, Makueni, Meru, Kajiado, Kilifi, Embu, Kajiado, Lamu, Kwale, Tharaka Nithi, Narok, Tharaka Nithi Nyeri, Taita Taveta Makueni, Meru, Lamu West Pokot Lamu, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Kwale Taita Taveta, Kitui Laikipia 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was on an improving trend in January compared to the previous month in Isiolo, Mandera, Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta and Marsabit. This was attributed to ongoing nutrition interventions delivered through health outreaches and better food consumption following improved access to nutritious food commodities in season such as fresh milk, pulses and vegetables. However, based on Middle-Upper-Arm- Circumference (MUAC) rates, Garissa, Tana River, Kitui, Kwale and Makueni remained on Alert. The reported malnutrition rates remained below the seasonal ranges in approximately 60 of the ASAL counties but outside the usual ranges in roughly 26 of the counties. The negative situation could be attributed to increase in cases of epidemics such as cholera, diarrhea, among other ailments, throughout the short rains season. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based MUAC measurements) Garissa Baringo Isiolo, Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Marsabit , Wajir, Baringo Garissa, Samburu Tana River, Meru Samburu, Wajir, Mandera Isiolo, Embu, Kitui, Kajiado, Kilifi, Turkana, Tana Kitui, Kwale Narok Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Nyeri, Laikipia Narok River, Kwale Makueni Nyeri Lamu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Lamu, Meru Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Taita Taveta Nithi, West Pokot 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend, while the trend in a few counties is Worsening Trend as shown in the Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Marsabit Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Mandera, Tana River, Wajir, Turkana, Samburu,Embu,Kilifi,Kitui,Kwale,Laikipia,Lamu,Makueni,Mer West Pokot u,Narok,Nyeri,Taita Taveta,Tharaka Nithi Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Recommended Priority Interventions No. Sector Intervention 1. Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation given the likely dry conditions in February and March 2024 (before onset of March-May season). Sensitisation of stakeholders on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during upcoming long rains season. 2. Food and Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash transfers safety nets targeting the vulnerable groups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain income generating activities for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. 3. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Nino rains. Support for point of use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. 4. Livestock Strengthen disease surveillance and control to facilitate migration and sector access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites. Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistribution. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during MAM 2024. 5. Health and Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. nutrition Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. sector Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. 6. Peace and Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use security agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone sector counties. Strengthen community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. 7. Education Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and sector attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote of school feeding programmes in schools. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st January 2024 County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 VCI values (3- Colour Drought Category month as month as month) at 3Ist at 31st Vegetation greenness Dec Jan above normal 2023 2024 Normal vegetation 35 - 50 greenness Moderate vegetation 20 - 35 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation Baringo County 62.35 58.21 Above normal vegetation greeness remained the same Central 64.2 71.16 across all sub-counties except Mogotio that recorded normal vegetation greenness. North 67.05 58.5 South 65.01 59.5 Ravine 52.93 63.94 Mogotio 47.29 48.02 Tiaty 65.49 57.25 Mandera County 84.47 89.84 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Lafey 86.16 93.9 remained above normal across all the Sub counties as compared to the previous month. North 87.08 95.2 Banissa 80.6 84.19 West 82.27 85.67 South 87.9 90.68 72.11 80.99 Turkana County 60.9 54.66 Above normal vegetation greenness recorded in January East 40.12 35.03 2024,Except for Turkana East, North and central that showed Normal vegetation greenness as opposed to South 54.15 56.18 previous months. Loima 77.64 73.21 Central 50.47 45.92 West 80.4 68.43 North 55.57 48.29 Marsabit County 83.7 82.75 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Laisamis 84.16 92.78 remained above normal across all the Sub counties Moyale 77.37 90.77 North Horr 84.34 73.78 Saku 96.65 106.34 Wajir County 62.77 80.25 Above normal vegetation greenness was recorded across Tarbaj 76.59 81.37 the sub-counties which is similar to the previous months. North 82.63 92.2 South 57.03 75.41 West 46.92 85.04 Eldas 49.72 70.25 Wajir East 68.13 81.61 Samburu County 65.49 74.6 All the Sub counties reported above normal vegetation East 62.92 77.26 greenness that is similar to the previous month across the County. North 71.27 76.59 West 55.83 56.61 Garissa County 61.21 79.78 Significant improvements noted in January with the Balambala 49.41 77.94 vegetation greenness being above normal across all the sub-counties as opposed to previous month for Township 46.37 81.14 Balambala and Township Sub counties reported normal Ijara 74.14 79.75 v egetation greenness in Deecember 23. Fafi 63.06 83.58 Lagdera 57.01 82.12 Dadaab 55.17 70.57 Isiolo County 67.15 90.96 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness North 65.63 93.74 remained above normal across all the Sub counties South 69.47 86.71 Tana River County 58.99 78.53 Notable improvement in the condition of vegetation was Bura 51.38 74.5 witnessed in December with the vegetation greenness Galole 58.16 76.07 being above normal. Bura Sub county recorded a significant improvement from the moderate vegetation Garsen 65.97 83.49 deficit reported in November. Kajiado County 64.4 81.05 The county reported above normal vegetation greenness Central 59.72 79.16 with a significant improvement being witnessed across the sub-couties,similar to the previous months. East 59.61 86.31 North 64.33 75.03 South 61.43 88.06 West 71.51 74.31 Embu County 70.62 80.13 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Manyatta 70.92 74.21 remained above normal across all the Sub counties Mbeere North 75.84 84.3 Mbeere South 67.23 80.01 Runyenjes 71.14 77.82 Kitui County 57.79 74.09 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across Central 63.59 74.17 all the Sub counties,Similar to the previous month period East 60.48 73.89 Rural 64.73 80.32 South 58.01 76.92 West 58.54 73.33 Mwingi Central 53.41 71.1 Mwingi North 55.17 67.79 Mwingi West 66.23 81.35 Makueni County 62.72 79.77 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kaiti 76.26 81.57 remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Significant improvement noted across the county.. Kibwezi East 53.73 76.51 Kibwezi West 63.69 80.78 Kilome 64.37 83.12 Makueni 67.22 82.07 Mbooni 67.62 78.12 Meru County 67.23 74.02 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Buuri 65.94 73.78 remained above normal across all the Sub counties Central-Imenti 65.59 74.08 Igembe Central 70.82 78.6 Igembe North 76.87 83.82 Igembe South 66.35 75.76 North Imenti 58.54 53.3 South Imenti 63.59 76.08 Tigania East 64.48 66.84 Tigania West 60.44 61.64 Nyeri County 62.9 61.83 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kieni 63.65 64.12 remained above normal across all the Sub counties with significant improvement Mathira 59.27 55.57 Mukurweini 63.33 64.48 Nyeri Town 59.13 66.73 Othaya 67.98 59.95 Tetu 60.24 56.06 Kilifi County 54.64 74.53 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across Ganze 53.73 77.09 all the Sub counties,this is the same to the previous month Kaloleni 61.48 76.92 Kilifi North 57.64 68.46 Kilifi South 52.43 65.42 Magarini 53.84 74.85 Malindi 56.16 70.73 Rabai 58.55 69.6 Kwale County 65.67 78.06 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kinango 62.45 79.37 remained above normal across all the Sub counties Lunga 73.94 80.01 Matuga 63.46 71.09 Msambweni 69.99 70.92 Lamu County 76.63 80.44 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Lamu East 69.15 79.03 remained above normal across all the Sub counties Lamu West 80.96 81.25 Taita Taveta County 51.44 82.11 Above normal vegetation greenness was recorded across Mwatate 47.3 79.74 the sub-counties as opposed to previous months Taveta 46.75 84.74 Voi 54.14 81.44 Wundanyi 56.89 85.18 Narok County 73.36 77.55 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across Emurua Dikirr 91.63 92.93 all the Sub counties. Kilgoris 78 76.55 Narok East 62.44 79.25 Narok North 58.95 64.01 Narok South 72 77.09 Narok West 82.96 83.63 West Pokot County 64.29 55.38 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kacheliba 59.81 50.37 remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Kapenguria 67.14 55.97 Pokot South 68.85 64.03 Sigor 67.34 58.9 Tharaka Nithi County 58.25 69.53 vegetation greenness remained above normal across all Chuka 71.78 80.42 the Sub counties; with improvement being noted in across the county. Maara 62.45 76.53 Tharaka 51.81 63.2 Laikipia County 62.22 74.16 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across Laikipia East 71.98 79.06 all the Sub counties. Laikipia North 63.25 78.21 Laikipia West 55.57 64.21 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification",
            "Feb_2024.pdf": "February 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview All the counties are categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of the 2023 short rains season. The current Rift Valley Fever reported in the counties of Marsabit and Wajir counties is eminent risk to the affected and neighbouring counties. The just concluded Fig1:DroughtPhaseClassification,February Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance stands at 2 million, Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 847,932 children aged 6 to 59 months and 124,359 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of February2024 1.1Observed drought indicators 1.1.1February2024Rainfall Performance The analysis of the February 2024 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties did not receive considerable amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 50mm. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received rainfall ranging between 11mm to 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm Figure 2. February 2024 Rainfall to 70mm whereas Agro Pastoral cluster including Performance Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm to 100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received rainfall ranging between 2mm to 50mm as shown in figure 1.1.2 March 2024rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of March 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are all forecastedto receive above average rainfall. Figure3.March2024Rainfallforecast 1.2Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of February showed slight decline from the previous month of January which is normal during this period. Turkana and West Pokot Counties are depicting slight greennessdeterioration thusrequiring monitoring. January2024 February2024 Figure 3: Vegetation Conditions(VCIs) for Januaryand February2024 The month of February 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of January 2024. However, two counties showed declining trend. Stability is due to the compounded impacts of OND short rains seasons which was linked to El Nino condition. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Two (2) counties of; Turkana and West Pokot recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twenty-one (21) counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Tana River, Garissa Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of February 2024 is provided in Table 1. The situation for each county disaggregatedbysub-countyisprovided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index(VCI),February2024 Category County SubCounties(No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) Moderate (0) (0) Normal (2) (7) vegetation Turkana,WestPokot Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, Central, North), West Pokot greenness (Kacheliba,Kapenguria,Sigor) Above (21) (106) normal Baringo, Embu, Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, greenness Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kaloleni,North,South,Magarini,Malindi,Rabai),Kitui(Central, Kwale, Laikipia, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Lamu, Makueni, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Mandera, Marsabit, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North, West), Lamu (East, West), Meru, Nyeri, Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Samburu, Taita Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe Taveta, Tana River, North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, TiganiaWest) Narok Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North,West),TanaRiver(Bura,Galole,Garsen),Turkana:(South, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa(Balambala,Fafi,Lagdera,Ijara,Daadab,Township), 1.3Livestock production 1.3.1Pasture and browse condition Overall, forage conditions ranged from fair to good during the reference period. Pasture conditions were reported as good by 78 of ASAL counties, while 22 deemed the pasture condition fair. For browse, 91 of counties reported good conditions, with 9 reporting fair conditions, the stability is attributed to regeneration impacted by the recent rainfall. Fair conditions were observed in regions like Samburu and parts of Marsabit, mainly due to invasive species hindering natural regeneration, heat effects in February, and compromised grazing lands from heavyflooding. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, February2024 Pasture Browse Baringo Garissa,Isiolo Tana River Baringo, Garissa Tana River Mandera,Marsabit Turkana Isiolo, Mandera Turkana Samburu, Wajir Marsabit, Samburu Narok Embu, Kajiado, Wajir, Embu, West Pokot Kilifi, Kitui Kajiado,Kilifi Kwale,Laikipia, Kitui, Kwale Lamu,Makueni Laikipia, Lamu Meru,Nyeri Makueni,Meru Taita Taveta Narok,Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta 1.3.2Livestock body condition Livestock body condition in the 23 ASAL Counties was generally stable, with 58 reporting good condition and 22 fair condition for cattle, while goat and sheep showed 96 in good condition and 4 in fair condition. The favorable trend was attributed to abundant pasture and accessible water resource within shorter distances. The observed livestock body condition in February was within the normal to above-normal range for the same period. Overall, livestock in the ASALCounties exhibited good body condition, driven by ample pasture and close water sources,with Februaryconditionsfalling within the usual or above-normal range for the season. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, February2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana,Kitui Baringo,Garissa Nyeri Baringo,Garissa Makueni,Narok Isiolo, Mandera Isiolo, Mandera West.Pokot Marsabit, Wajir Marsabit, Samburu Samburu Tana River,Wajir Tana River Turkana,Taita Taveta Embu, Kajiado Narok,Embu Kilifi, Kwale Kajiado,Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Lamu Kwale,Laikipia, Lamu, Meru,Narok, Makueni,Meru, Taita Taveta, WestPokot, Kilifi 1.3.3Milk production Milk production remained consistent compared to the previous month, but many Arid counties reported below-average production due to low Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs), stemming from livestock mortality during previous failed seasons. Among the sampled households, Samburu had the lowest average milk production of 0.4 liters among Arid counties, while Embu reported the lowest average milk production of 0.6 liters among semi-arid counties during the reviewed period. Table 4.0: Milk production, February2024 Isiolo, Nyeri Embu, Garissa Baringo Samburu Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Isiolo Tana River Turkana Meru Samburu Mandera Embu, Kwale Wajir, Narok, Tana River Wajir Laikipia, Baringo Kilifi, Kitui Kajiado Meru, Kajiado,Lamu Kwale,Taita Kilifi, Kitui, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Taveta Lamu, Garissa, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Marsabit, West Pokot Narok, Turkana, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi, 1.3.4.Livestock diseases Sheep and goat pox, along with suspected cases of foot and mouth disease, were documented in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang), and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura, Nkareta ward in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South, and Narok North Sub Counties). An increase in listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was observed in Waso ward, Samburu County. Rift Valley Fever outbreak cases were reported in Marsabit and Wajir, with 52 positive samples out of 275 tested in Wajir. In Mandera, instances of camel deaths occurred in Banissa and Lafey, but the cause remained undetermined. Tsetse flies were noted in large stock, particularly in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit, while a rabies outbreak was reported in Tigo, Marsabit County andgoatsabortion notedacrossthe county. 1.3.5Cattle prices Cattle prices remained steady throughout the ASAL counties compared to the previous month. The decrease in price in these areas was due to high volumes, caused by an influx of cattle into the markets as farmers sold cattle to raise fees for their learners in the schools new academic year and other household expenses. Conversely, in other regions, the stable to improving trend in prices was attributed to the favorable body condition of cattle, allowing pastoralists to command higher prices. Across all counties, prices were higher than usual for the period, driven by factors such as good body condition, active market participation, market scarcity due to hoarding and belownormal volumes, andincreaseddemandfor cattle meat. Table 5.0: Cattle prices,February2024 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Taita Garissa, Mandera Isiolo, Mandera Taveta Baringo Tana River Marsabit, Samburu Marsabit, Nyeri Turkana Tana River, Taita Embu, Narok Wajir Taita Turkana,Wajir taveta KajiadoKilifi, Taveta Embu, Narok Kitui, Kwale Isiolo, KajiadoKilifi, Laikipia, Lamu Samburu, West Kitui, Kwale Makueni,Meru Pokot Laikipia, Lamu Tharaka Nithi Makueni,Meru Tharaka Nithi, 1.3.6Goat Prices Stability in goat prices was observed across ASAL counties, driven by favorable livestock body conditions. However, oversupply to markets, driven by the necessity to raise funds for school fees and household needs, led to a decline in goat prices. In contrast, some counties experienced a positive trend due to high export demand and ample browse availability, contributing to good body conditions. The prevailing market prices for goats across all counties exceeded usual rates for the period, possibly attributed to sustained improvements in goat body conditions following favorable brief rainy seasons,increasingthe availability of quality goats. Table 6.0: Goat prices,February2024 Above LTA At Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Baringo, Garissa Kitui Baringo,Garissa, Tana River Isiolo Isiolo, Mandera Nyeri Marsabit, Wajir Mandera Turkana Marsabit, Kilifi Embu, Laikipia Samburu Kwale Samburu Lamu,Makueni, Nyeri Meru Tana River Kajiado Narok Turkana,Wajir Kilifi, Kitui Taita Taveta Embu, Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, West West.Pokot Kwale,Laikipia Lamu,Makueni Meru,Narok 1.4Crop Production Agricultural activities, encompassing the cultivation of food and horticultural crops, are predominantly concentrated in the Agro-pastoral (AGP), Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters (SEMA). These regions serve as focal points for crop cultivation in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL). Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that even within other clusters, a significant number of households engage in crop production along the riverine areas of rivers such as Tana, Daua, Turkwel, and others. This diversification of agricultural practices highlights the adaptability and resourcefulness of communities across ASAL counties. The following summary table provides an overview of the agricultural landscape in these regions. Table 7.0: Current statusof crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production SEMA Kitui The main food crops in the field were at harvesting stage and their condition variedfrom goodto fair. The performance of crops was affected by logging due to excessive water in some areas. Crop pests manifestation also affected the performance of crops in the field; thus, no optimal production wasexpected SEMA Makueni Most of these crops were on harvesting stage and in good to fair condition. The expected crop production was 30-60 percent above the long-term average. High incidences of crop pests and fungal diseases (caterpillars, bollworms, and Tuta absoluta) contributed to the reduced crop production especiallyfor irrigated cropping SEMA Meru Harvesting of short-cycle legumes such as beans has been completedacrossthe livelihood zones. Most farmers in the county began harvesting maize across all the livelihood zones. Near average to below average harvest of maize isexpected. In the Agropastoral areas of Igembe North and Central below normal maize crop harvest was observed. This is as a results of water logging from the enhanced rains leading to stunted growth of maize in these areas. However, near average-to- average maize crop harvest was observed in the Mixed Livelihood Zone of Tigania East. The harvest is expected to improve food availability at the household level periodically with most households opting to sell the harvest to meet other expenses or use as payment for school fees. Land preparation for the March -April May (MAM) rains has begunin some areas. Agropastoral Baringo Farmers have started clearing their farms in preparation for the long rains season. In the Irrigated livelihood zones, farmers were harvesting maize and tomatoes. Some maize farms were affected by fall army warms in Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub counties,leadingto reducedcropyield. 1.4.1Maize prices Maize prices remained stable during ongoing harvesting, the prices are expected to decrease post-harvest. January prices exceeded the long-term average in counties, attributed to elevated fuel costs affecting transportation, and heightened demand. Ongoing harvests are stabilizing maize prices, anticipated to decline further. Januarys prices surpassed long-term averages due to increasedfuel pricesimpacting transportation costs,andheighteneddemandfor the commodity. Table 8.0: Maize prices,February2024 Above LTA Atclose Below Improving Stable Worsening to LTA LTA Baringo, Garissa Kwale, Kajiado Baringo, Mandera Kitui, Taita Taveta Isiolo, Mandera Narok Isiolo Tana- River West.Pokot, Kajiado Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Meru,Laikipia Samburu Wajir Embu Tana River Garissa, Lamu, Turkana,Wajir Marsabit Makueni Embu, Kilifi Narok, Kitui, Laikipia Nyeri Lamu,Makueni Tharaka West Pokot, Nithi Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale Narok 1.5WATERACCESS 1.5.1Accessto water for households The distance to household water sources slightly increased but within the normal ranges, with Mandera reporting the longest trekking distance (8.3km) and Isiolo the shortest (2.2Km) among Arid counties. Tharaka Nithi recorded the longest distance (5.9km), while Nyeri reported the shortest (1.2km) among Semi-arid counties. The generally lower-than-normal trekking distances were attributed to water facility recharge during the October to December short rains and sporadic Januaryshowersin specific areas. Table 9.0: Distance from Householdsto Main Water Sources,February2024 Isiolo Baringo,Garissa Marsabit Kwale, Baringo,Garissa Turkana ,Mandera,Wajir Kajiado, Lamu ,Mandera,Turkana Taita Marsabit, Samburu Narok ,Samburu, Wajir, Taveta Tana River Taita Taveta Tana River,Isiolo Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Makueni Kwale,Laikipia Meru,Tharaka Nithi Lamu,Makueni West Pokot, Embu, Meru,Narok Nyeri 1.5.2Accessto water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced short rains. In arid counties, the average distance increased to 7.3 kilometers from January 2023s 6.7 kilometers, with Turkana and Mandera reporting the longest round-trip distances of over 10 kilometers each, and Tana River County having the shortest at 4.5 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, trekking distances ranged from 2.2 kilometers to 4.9 kilometers, with Kitui reporting the longest and Kilifi the shortest distances. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the short rainsin 2023. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing areato Main Water Sources,February2024 Above LTA At LTA Belo Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Garissa,Samburu Tana River Marsabit Baringo, Garissa Narok Isiolo, Mandera Kajiado,Taita Nyeri, Isiolo, Samburu Makueni Marsabit, Wajir Taveta Laikipia Turkana,Wajir West Tana River,Embu Mandera, Embu, Pokot Kajiado,Kilifi Kilifi, Lamu Turkana Lamu,Kitui Kitui, Kwale,Meru, Meru Kwale,Nyeri Narok,Makueni, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi, West 1.6Termsof trade Terms of trade remained stable across the ASAL counties, with Garissa and Turkana reporting the lowest among Arid counties at 40 and 42, respectively. In semi-arid regions, Nyeri recorded the lowest at 61. Comparatively, the terms of trade were favorable when measured against the long-term average. Marsabit county reported the highest terms of trade at 98.4, while Tharaka Nithi recorded the highest among the semi-arid counties at 142. The positive shift in terms of trade is attributed to the ongoing harvesting activities, which are contributing to price stabilization in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Termsof Trade,February2024 Isiolo, Mandera Garissa Baringo, Tana River Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Tana River Marsabit Narok,Nyeri, Isiolo Turkana Embu, Garissa Lamu Samburu, Baringo Kajiado Wajir Kwale,Lamu Turkana Wajir Kilifi, Nyeri Embu, Kajiado Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi, Makueni Taita Taveta Makueni,Meru West Pokot Meru,Narok West Pokot, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Kwale Kitui Lamu,Taita Taveta Laikipia 1.7. Health and nutrition Nutrition conditions improved in Isiolo, Mandera, Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, and Marsabit compared to the previous month. This positive trend is a result of ongoing nutrition interventions through health outreaches and improved food consumption, particularly from enhanced access to nutritious items such as fresh milk, pulses, and seasonal vegetables. Garissa, Tana River, Kitui, Kwale, and Makueni counties are on alert status based on MUAC rates, signaling potential nutrition concerns. Despite this, reported malnutrition rates remained below seasonal ranges in about 60 percent of ASAL counties, but approximately 26 percent experienced rates outside the usual ranges. This less favorable situation could be attributed to an increase in epidemic diseases, including cholera and diarrhea, during the OND 2023period. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC),February2024 Current Trend Garissa Baringo Isiolo, Turkana Mandera Wajir Garissa Tana River Meru, Marsabit Marsabit Baringo Samburu Kitui, Kwale Narok Samburu Isiolo Kajiado, Turkana, Makueni Nyeri Wajir,Mandera Embu, Kilifi Tana River Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Nyeri Narok Kwale Kilifi, Laikipia Laikipia Makueni Lamu Lamu,Meru Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Taita Taveta West Pokot 2.0Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend, while fewcountiesare at WorseningTrend asshownin the table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, January2024 Drought Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Mandera, Tana Turkana, Marsabit River, Wajir, Samburu, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, West Pokot Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri,Taita Taveta,Tharaka Nithi Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions No. Sector Intervention 1. Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation, given the likely dry conditionsinMarch2024,beforeonsetofMAM2024season. Stakeholders to be sensitized on livelihood support actions to preparecommunitiesforimprovedconditionsduringMAM2024. 2. Food and Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash safetynets transferstargetingthevulnerablegroups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain IGAs for vulnerablehouseholdstosetthemonapathtoresilience. 3. Watersector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Ninorains. Support for point of use water treatment for households faced with waterinsecurity. Supportenhancedwaterharvestingandstorage. 4. Livestock Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate sector migrationsandaccesstomarkets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinationsandcontrolof(endoandecto)parasites Facilitatesafemigrationsinaccessinggrazingareasandmarkets Supportrestockingprogrammesaimedatherdredistributions. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during MAM2024. 5. Health and Supporthealthandnutritionsurveillanceandinterventions. nutritionsector Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups andcommunityhealthstrategy. 6. Peace and Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use securitysector agreements;Coordinationof peaceandsecurityactivitiesin conflict pronecounties. Strengthening community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. 7. Education Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and sector attendance. Enhancehygienepromotioninlearninginstitutions;and Promoteofschoolfeedingprogrammes. Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index(VCI-3month) asat 25th February2024 ADMINISTRATIVEUNIT VEGETATION DROUGHTCATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY SubCounty VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI DroughtCategory monthas monthas values (3-month) at31st at25th 50 Vegetation greenness Jan Feb abovenormal 2024 2024 35-50 Normal vegetation greenness 20-35 Moderate vegetation 10-20 Severevegetationdeficit 10 Extremevegetationdeficit BARINGO County The county recorded above normal vegetation 58.21 57.62 Central 71.16 81.21 North 58.5 59.13 South 59.5 55.81 Ravine 63.94 78.59 Mogotio 48.02 48.13 57.25 Tiaty 52.31 MANDERA County The county remained stable as compared to previous 89.84 91 month of January with above normal vegetation Lafey 93.9 97.39 greenness. North 95.2 95.68 Banissa 84.19 80.56 West 85.67 82.29 South 90.68 96.19 East 80.99 87.71 TURKANA County The county recorded normal vegetation greenness 54.66 49.86 duringthemonthunderreview. East 35.03 35.79 South 56.18 51.48 Loima 73.21 66.32 Central 45.92 47.92 West 68.43 60.06 North 48.29 41.96 MARSABIT County The county recorded above normal vegetation 82.75 73.86 greenness in February which was stable when comparedtopreviousmonthofJanuary. Laisamis 92.78 86.52 Moyale 90.77 83.5 NorthHorr 73.78 62.47 Saku 106.34 107.01 WAJIR County The county maintained at above normal vegetation 80.25 86.25 greenness in February, as compared to the previous monthofJanuary.Thisremainedstable. Tarbaj 81.37 85.4 North 92.2 95.48 South 75.41 77.22 West 85.04 102.32 Eldas 70.25 83.21 East 81.61 88.99 SAMBURU County Thecountyremainedstable atabovenormalvegetation 74.6 74.2 East 77.26 78.28 North 76.59 74.66 West 56.61 55.68 GARISSA County The county remained the same in vegetation greenness 79.78 81.91 Balambala 77.94 83.15 Township 81.14 87.65 Ijara 79.75 84.49 Fafi 83.58 82.25 Lagdera 82.12 89.91 Dadaab 70.57 70.04 ISIOLO County The county recorded stability in above vegetation 90.96 94.78 comparedtolastmonth. North 93.74 99.42 South 86.71 87.7 TANA County The county recorded above normal vegetation 78.53 75 RIVER greennessinthemonthofFebruary. Bura 74.5 75.22 Galole 76.07 67.42 Garsen 83.49 79.55 KAJIADO County Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation 81.05 90.66 greennessatabovenormalvegetationgreenness. Central 79.16 90.95 East 86.31 93.38 North 75.03 84.22 South 88.06 93.65 West 74.31 87.05 LAIKIPIA County The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness 74.16 74.32 underreview. East 79.06 79.28 North 78.21 76.61 West 64.21 67.63 THARAKA County Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness 69.53 70.05 NITHI inthemonthunderreview. Chuka 80.42 80.11 Maara 76.53 81.17 Tharaka 63.2 62.71 WEST County The county recorded decrease in vegetation greenness 55.38 48.21 POKOT from, above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetationgreennessduringthemonthofFebruary. Kacheliba 50.37 41.34 Kapenguria 55.97 48.8 Pokotsouth 64.03 66.18 Sigor 58.9 49.58 EMBU County The county recorded above normal vegetation 80.13 77.49 Manyatta 74.21 77.15 Mbeerenorth 84.3 76.74 Mbeeresouth 80.01 76.9 Runyenjes 77.82 81.86 74.09 71.98 KITUI Kituicentral 74.17 78.92 Kituieast 73.89 71.69 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness Kituirural 80.32 82 Kituisouth 76.92 76.14 Kituiwest 73.33 74.99 Mwingi central 71.1 65.81 Mwinginorth 67.79 62.59 Mwingiwest 81.35 78.26 79.77 86.02 The county recorded above normal vegetation Kaiti 81.57 90.79 Kibwezieast 76.51 88.05 comparedtopreviousmonthofJanuary. Kibweziwest 80.78 81.91 MAKUENI Kilome 83.12 92.75 Makueni 82.07 82.82 Mbooni 78.12 87.47 74.02 78.98 Buuri 73.78 81.86 CentralImenti 74.08 76.15 The county recorded above normal vegetation greennessacrossthesub-counties. Igembecentral 78.6 80.93 Igembenorth 83.82 86.89 Igembesouth 75.76 74.21 NorthImenti 53.3 64.8 SouthImenti 76.08 84.74 Tiganiaeast 66.84 71.53 Tiganiawest 61.64 71.32 County The county recorded above normal vegetation 61.83 74.92 Kieni 64.12 75.28 Mathira 55.57 63.89 Mukurweini 64.48 84.75 NYERI Nyeritown 66.73 84.04 Othaya 59.95 76.64 Tetu 56.06 75.87 KILIFI County 74.53 76.76 Ganze 77.09 76.97 Kaloleni 76.92 79.95 The county remained at above normal vegetation greennessinthemonthofFebruary. Kilifinorth 68.46 73.64 Kilifisouth 65.42 69.43 Magarini 74.85 77.53 Malindi 70.73 71.29 Rabai 69.6 78.57 County 78.06 85.42 The vegetation condition index recorded was above Kinango 79.37 85.72 normal vegetation greenness in February which was KWALE LungaLunga 80.01 86.49 stablewhencomparedtolastmonth. Matuga 71.09 83.82 Msambweni 70.92 80.81 80.44 90.68 Thecountyandallits subcountiesrecordedstability in LAMU vegetation condition at above normal vegetation Lamueast 79.03 91.21 greennessconditionduringthemonthofFebruary. Lamuwest 81.25 90.37 82.11 92.25 Thecountyremainedstable atabovenormalvegetation Mwatate 79.74 95.33 greennessduringthemonthofFebruary. TAITA Taveta 84.74 104.3 TAVETA Voi 81.44 85.41 Wundanyi 85.18 102.65 77.55 84.75 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of February which was stable EmuruaDikirr 92.93 94.47 whencomparedtothelastmonthofJanuary. Kilgoris 76.55 81.28 Narokeast 79.25 89.75 NAROK Naroknorth 64.01 71.41 Naroksouth 77.09 87.05 83.63 Narokwest 88.37 Table 14.0: Indicatorsmonitored by the drought earlywarningsystem Type of indicator Examplesof indicatorsmonitored Typesof impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetationcondition State of water sources Production Livestockbodycondition Livestock production Milk production Cropproduction Livestockmigration Livestockmortality Cropproduction Access Termsof trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Accessto food andwater Distancesto water Utilization MUAC(Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought earlywarningsystem Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it fallswithin seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helpsto guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "March_2024.pdf": "March 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview All the 23 ASAL counties continues to register stable drought situation where Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges is registered across the counties.The onset of the long rains 2024 season has been predicted to be characterised by enhanced rains, in some areas with associated flood risks. Floods and other enhanced rains risks is likely to continue undermining drought recovery at household level.Generally, the drought situation is expected to continue in normal phase across the 23 ASAL counties as Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, March 2023 the wet season sets in. According to last food security assessment, Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, number of people in need of assistance stands at 1.9 million Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 847,932 children aged 6 to 59 months and 124,359 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of March 2023. 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 March 2024 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the March 2024 monthly rainfall performance indicates that early onset of MAM 2024 long rains in some counties especially southern counties. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 0mm to 125mm. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded trace amounts of rainfall. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties reported early rainfall onset, received rainfall amounts ranging between Figure 2. March 2024 Rainfall Performance 78mm to 200mm. Similar situation was noted with Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received highest amounts of rainfall with some parts recording rainfall up to 288mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 April 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of April 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are all forecasted to receive above average rainfall. Figure 3. April 2024 Rainfall forecast 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2024 with that of the previous month of February 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of March showed slight improvement from the month of February. February 2024 March 2024 Figure 3: Maps depicting improvement in Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) in March from February 2024 The month of March 2024 indicated improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of February 2024. Improvement in vegetation condition is due to the early onset of MAM 2024 long season. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe or moderate vegetation deficit. OnlyWest Pokot recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twenty-two (22) counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in February 2024 is better when compared to the previous month, February 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of March 2024 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) Moderate (0) (0) Normal (1) (6) vegetation West Pokot Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Turkana (East) West Pokot greenness (Kacheliba, Sigor) Above (22) (107) normal Baringo, Embu, Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, greenness Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui Laikipia, Lamu, (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi Makueni, Mandera, North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North, West), Lamu (East, West), Samburu, Taita Taveta, Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Tana River, Tharaka Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Turkana and West Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Pokot Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Overall, forage conditions ranged from good to fair during the month of March. Pasture conditions were reported as good by 78 percent of the Asal counties, while 22 percent were fair. For browse, 78 percent of counties reported good conditions, with 22 percent reporting fair conditions, attributed to regeneration from early onset of MAM seasonal rainfall. Fair Pasture conditions were observed in counties including; Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot, Narok and Tana River mainly due to invasive species hindering natural regeneration and flooding that hindered grazing. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, March 2024 Pasture Browse Turkana Wajir Turkana Narok West Pokot Lamu West Pokot Makueni Narok Narok Tana River Samburu Tana River Garissa Garissa Laikipia Wajir Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Mandera Meru Marsabit Makueni Meru Taita Taveta Baringo Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Embu Kilifi Nyeri Embu Baringo Nyeri Kitui Lamu Tharaka Nithi Kitui Kwale Tharaka Nithi 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition in the Asal Counties was generally stable, with about 70 percent reporting good condition and about 30 percent fair condition for cattle, while goat and sheep showed about 78 percent in good condition and about 22 percent in fair condition. The favorable trend was attributed to abundant pasture and accessible water sources within shorter distances. The observed livestock body condition in February was within the normal to above-normal range for the same period. Overall, livestock in the Asal Counties exhibited good body condition, driven by ample pasture and close water sources, with February conditions falling within the usual or above- normal range for the season. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, March 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo, Embu Baringo, Embu Garissa, Isiolo Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi Kajiado, Kilifi Laikipia, Lamu Laikipia, Lamu Mandera, Makueni Mandera, Makueni Narok, Samburu Narok, Samburu West Pokot, Marsabit West Pokot, Marsabit Meru Meru Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River Tana River Wajir, Nyeri Wajir, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi, Kitui Tharaka Nithi, Kitui Kwale, Embu Kwale, Embu 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production improved compared to the previous month of February. Majority of Arid counties reported above-average production due to improving Tropical Livestock Units (TLU occasion by early onset of MAM long rains season. Among the sampled households, Samburu County recorded the lowest average milk production of 0.5 liters among Arid counties, while Tharaka Nithi county reported the lowest average milk production of 0.5 liters among semi-arid counties during the reviewed period. The low milk production is as result of low tropical units among the households as result of previous drought events that led to livestock mortality. Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2024 Makueni Laikipia Garissa Kajiado Turkana Baringo Wajir Samburu Tana River Kilifi Meru Mandera Narok Marsabit Tharaka Narok West Pokot Turkana Meru Nithi Laikipia Tana River Isiolo Taita Taveta Lamu Kwale Kajiado West Pokot Meru Narok Kilifi Kwale Embu Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharakan Nithi Nyeri Isiolo Baringo Garissa Wajir Kitui Samburu Marsabit 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Sheep and goat pox, along with suspected cases of foot and mouth disease, were documented in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kedong), and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura, Nkareta ward in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South, and Narok North Sub Counties). An increase in listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was observed in Waso ward, Samburu County. The reported Rift Valley Fever outbreak cases in Marsabit and Wajir, counties continue to be controlled by stakeholders. In Mandera, instances of camel deaths occurred in Banissa and Lafey, but the cause remained undetermined. Tsetse flies were noted in large stock, particularly in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit, while a rabies outbreak was reported in Tigo, Marsabit County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Cattle prices improved slightly throughout the ASAL counties compared to the previous month. The increase in price in these areas was due to increased demand, caused by an influx of cattle into the markets as farmers sought funds for the new academic year and other household expenses. Conversely, in other regions, the stable to improving trend in prices was attributed to the favorable body condition of cattle, allowing pastoralists to command higher prices. Across all counties, prices were higher than usual for the period, driven by factors such as good body condition, active market participation, market scarcity due to hoarding and low volumes, and increased demand for cattle meat. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, March 2024 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Makueni West Isiolo Wajir Mandera Lamu Pokot Kajiado Kajiado Nyeri Wajir Embu West Pokot Narok Mandera Nyeri Lamu Garissa Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Meru Wajir Samburu Meru Turkana Narok Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Kitui Embu Kwale Tana River Makueni Nyeri Kilifi Taita Taveta 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability in goat prices was observed across ASAL counties, driven by favorable livestock body conditions. However, oversupply to markets, driven by the necessity to raise funds for school fees and household needs, led to a decline in goat prices. In contrast, some counties experienced a positive trend due to high export demand and ample browse availability, contributing to good body conditions. The prevailing market prices for goats across all counties exceeded usual rates for the period, possibly attributed to sustained improvements in goat body conditions following favorable brief rainy seasons, increasing the availability of quality goats. Table 6.0: Goat prices, March 2024 Above LTA At Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Lamu Embu Laikipia Kwale Makueni Kajiado Tharaka Lamu Garissa Kilifi Nithi Makueni Wajir Meru Turkana Narok Narok Taita Taveta Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Garissa West Pokot Marsabit Isiolo Baringo Samburu Mandera Tana River Taita Taveta Samburu Turkana Wajir Isiolo Kilifi West Pokot Tana River Kajiado 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities, encompassing the cultivation of food and horticultural crops, are predominantly concentrated in the Agro-pastoral (AGP), Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters (SEMA). These regions serve as focal points for crop cultivation in the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL). Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that even within other clusters, a significant number of households engage in crop production along the riverine areas of rivers such as Tana, Daua, Turkwel, and others. This diversification of agricultural practices highlights the adaptability and resourcefulness of communities across ASAL counties. The following summary table provides an overview of the agricultural landscape in these regions. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production SEMA Kitui The major crops being planted in the season included millet, cowpeas, green grams, sorghum, and maize in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone and maize, beans, pigeon peas, cow peas and green grams in Mixed Farming livelihood zone across the livelihood zones and this situation is normal at this time of the year Crops germination was expected following the onset of the long rains. However, farmers who did early planting off season planting the crops have germinated Makueni The main crops planted during the season were maize, green grams, pigeon peas, beans, and cowpeas. across the livelihood zones Meru Land preparation for the March -April May (MAM) rains has begun in most parts of the livelihood with above-average rains expected across the county Farmers across the livelihood zones concluded harvesting of corps in late February to early March with the harvest being near normal in most parts of the Mixed Framing and Marginal Farming areas of Tigania East and West However, below average maize crop was observed in the Agropastoral areas of Igembe North and Central. This was as a result of water logging from the enhanced rains leading to stunted growth of maize in those areas Agropastoral Baringo Most of the farmers have prepared their farms in readiness for planting once the long rains start, In the Irrigated zone, tomato harvesting was going on well. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable during ongoing harvesting, expected to decrease following the post- harvest. March prices exceeded the long-term average in counties, attributed to minimal production from past failed rainfall seasons, elevated fuel costs affecting transportation, and heightened demand. Concluded harvests are stabilizing maize prices, anticipated to decline further as witnessed by below average prices in march associated with harvest that farmers got. Table 8.0: Maize prices, March 2024 Above LTA Atclose Below Improving Stable Worsening to LTA LTA Makueni Nyeri Embu Embu Garissa Kajiado Garissa Kitui Kwale Kilifi Lamu Lamu Makueni Laikipia Taita Taveta Narok Wajir Taita Kitui Marsabit Nyeri Mandera Taveta Makueni Turkana Wajir Marsabit Laikipia Meru Mandera Samburu Meru Tharaka Turkana Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Nithi Isiolo Kilifi Isiolo Baringo West Pokot West Pokot Tana River Samburu Nyeri Tana River 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources slightly increased but within the normal ranges, with Mandera reporting the longest trekking distance (8.8km) and Isiolo the shortest (2.2Km) among the Arid counties. Kitui recorded the longest distance (5.6km), while Narok reported the shortest (1.7km) among Semi-arid counties. The generally lower-than-normal trekking distances were attributed to water facility recharge during the October to December short rains and early onset of MAM 2024 long rains. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, March 2024 a Samburu Embu Kajiado Kitui Embu Kajiado Kilifi Kilifi Taita Kwale Tana Kitui Narok Taveta Laikipia River Laikipia Tharaka Isiolo Lamu Garissa Lamu Nithi Turkana Makueni Kwale Makueni West Pokot Meru Tharaka Meru Nyeri Nithi Nyeri Baringo West Baringo Garissa Pokot Isiolo Mandera Narok Mandera Marsabit Taita Marsabit Samburu Tavet Turkana Tana River Wajir Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced short rains. In arid counties, Turkana reported the longest round-trip distance at 11.6kilometers whereas Isiolo County having the shortest at 3.8 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, trekking distances ranged from 2.2 kilometers to 5.6 kilometers, with Kitui and Lamu reporting the longest and Kilifi and Narok the shortest distances. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the short rains in 2023. The stability and slight increase in distances indicate positive conditions for livestock welfare in ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, March 2024 Laikipia Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Embu Kitui Baringo Kitui Taita Lamu Meru Wajir Tharaka Nithi Taveta Kwale Narok Turkana Narok Isiolo Meru Taita Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Taveta Marsabit Samburu West Pokot Isiolo Samburu Turkana Laikipia West Kajiado Makueni Pokot Kilifi Baringo Kwale Narok Garissa Tharaka Tana River Mandera Nithi Tana River Makueni Wajir 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. In arid counties, Garissa reported the lowest terms of trade among Arid while in In semi-arid regions, West Pokot recorded the lowest terms of trade. Comparatively, the terms of trade were favorable when measured against the long-term average. Marsabit county reported the highest terms of trade in Arid Counties while Meru recorded the highest among the semi-arid counties . The positive shift in terms of trade is attributed to the concluded harvesting activities, which are contributing to price stabilization in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, March 2024 Makueni, Laikipia Kwale Embu, Kajiado Baringo West Pokot Garissa, Wajir Tana Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River Lamu Narok, West Pokot River Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Samburu Lamu Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Turkana Taita Taveta Mandera, Meru, Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Kajiado, Kilifi Garissa, Isiolo Embu, Nyeri Mandera, Marsabit Kitui, Tharaka Nithi Samburu, Turkana Baringo Wajir 1.7. Health and nutrition Child malnutrition conditions improved in Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, West Pokot, Baringo and Garissa compared to the previous month. This positive trend is a result of ongoing nutrition interventions through health outreaches and improved food consumption, particularly from enhanced access to nutritious items such as fresh milk, pulses, and seasonal vegetables. Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir counties are on alert status based on MUAC rates, signaling potential nutrition concerns. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2024 Current Trend Turkana Wajir Nyeri Embu Kilifi Embu Isiolo Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Kwale Mandera Mandera Kitui Lamu Narok Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Samburu Meru West Pokot Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Narok Baringo Kitui Kilifi Samburu Garissa Lamu Laikipia Taita Marsabit Makueni Meru Taveta Tana River Nyeri Turkana West Pokot Wajir 1.8. Emerging issues Heavy rains have been experienced across ASAL counties during the month of April that led to destruction of local roads in Marsabit(Dirib-Gombo, Central (KCB)Badassa, Parkishon).Turkana has also received heavy rains that resulted to displacement of approximately 250 households with Tana river also experiencing river flooding.Other counties like Samburu have received rains that are causing swollen rivers affecting movement of goods.NDMA will closely monitor instances of flooding since rainfall onset has been realised across ASAL counties. 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend, while few counties are at Worsening Trend as shown in the table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, March 2024 Drought Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Garissa, Turkana Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions No. Sector Intervention 1. Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor the performance of the long rains and management of the possible impacts. Stakeholders to be sensitized on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during MAM 2024. 2. Food and Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash safety nets transfers targeting the vulnerable groups particularly in flood prone areas. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain IGAs for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. 3. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Support for point of use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. 4. Livestock Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate sector migrations and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistributions. Promote fodder production alongside crop production during MAM 2024. 5. Health and Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. nutrition Promote health seeking behaviour through community health sector strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. 6. Peace and Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use security sector agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthening community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. 7. Education Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and sector attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote of school feeding programmes in schools. Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st March 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values (3-month) at 25th at 31st 50 Vegetation greenness Feb Mar above normal 2024 2024 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.17 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness 57.62 76.35 Central 81.21 57.05 North 59.13 45.15 South 55.81 Ravine 78.59 41.61 Mogotio 48.13 52.31 46.57 Tiaty MANDERA County 87.45 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of February at above normal vegetation Lafey 97.39 greenness. 85.68 North 95.68 65.85 Banissa 80.56 81.42 West 82.29 107.51 South 96.19 East 87.71 TURKANA County 57.27 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness 49.86 37.39 East 35.79 51.16 South 51.48 70.39 Loima 66.32 Central 47.92 70.85 West 60.06 54.73 North 41.96 MARSABIT County 73.77 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness 73.86 in March which was stable when compared to previous 89.18 month of February. Laisamis 86.52 77.46 Moyale 83.5 62.34 North Horr 62.47 106.88 Saku 107.01 WAJIR County 86.77 The county maintained at above normal vegetation 86.25 greenness in March, as compared to the previous month 90.03 of February. Tarbaj 85.4 96.31 North 95.48 South 77.22 98.17 West 102.32 89.42 Eldas 83.21 89.64 East 88.99 SAMBURU County 74.55 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 76.88 East 78.28 78.08 North 74.66 52.52 West 55.68 GARISSA County 79.6 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness 81.91 at above normal vegetation greenness during the month 76.42 of March. Balambala 83.15 Township 87.65 91.79 Ijara 84.49 78.76 Fafi 82.25 84.58 Lagdera 89.91 65.29 Dadaab 70.04 ISIOLO County 92.63 The county recorded stability in above vegetation 94.78 greenness in March, which was stable when compared 98.9 to last month. North 99.42 83.05 South 87.7 TANA County 68.79 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness RIVER in the month of March. 71.87 Bura 75.22 59.43 Galole 67.42 72.03 Garsen 79.55 KAJIADO County 88.12 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation 90.66 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the 89.13 month of March. Central 90.95 87.46 East 93.38 North 84.22 82.43 South 93.65 92.48 West 87.05 LAIKIPIA County 61.36 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at 74.32 above normal vegetation greenness during the month 69.29 under review. East 79.28 64.21 North 76.61 West 67.63 THARAKA County 67.27 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness 70.05 NITHI in the month under review. 81.19 Chuka 80.11 83.13 Maara 81.17 56.95 Tharaka 62.71 WEST County 48.86 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in 48.21 POKOT normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. 39.98 Kacheliba 41.34 50.15 Kapenguria 48.8 72.95 Pokot south 66.18 Sigor 49.58 EMBU County 76.54 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness 77.49 84.41 Manyatta 77.15 74.43 Mbeere north 76.74 72.07 Mbeere south 76.9 89.26 Runyenjes 81.86 County 64.36 71.98 Kitui central 78.92 61.61 Kitui east 71.69 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness 78.1 at above normal vegetation greenness during the month Kitui rural 82 of March. KITUI 67.05 Kitui south 76.14 73.54 Kitui west 74.99 Mwingi 56.62 central 65.81 57.42 Mwingi north 62.59 76.54 Mwingi west 78.26 County 85.85 86.02 93.96 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness Kaiti 90.79 in March, which was stable when compared to previous 88.49 Kibwezi east 88.05 month of February. 79.99 Kibwezi west 81.91 MAKUENI 90.26 Kilome 92.75 83.15 Makueni 82.82 89.33 Mbooni 87.47 County 82.12 78.98 Buuri 81.86 79.26 Central Imenti 76.15 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month of March. 79.63 Igembe central 80.93 90.98 Igembe north 86.89 70.63 Igembe south 74.21 78.45 North Imenti 64.8 88.87 South Imenti 84.74 74.48 Tigania east 71.53 83.75 Tigania west 71.32 County 81.67 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness 74.92 78.74 Kieni 75.28 Mathira 63.89 89.47 Mukurweini 84.75 NYERI Nyeri town 84.04 Othaya 76.64 86.95 Tetu 75.87 County 70.53 76.76 66.22 Ganze 76.97 68.79 Kaloleni 79.95 The county remained at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of March. 71.22 Kilifi north 73.64 KILIFI 60.73 Kilifi south 69.43 72.75 Magarini 77.53 72.15 Malindi 71.29 76.41 Rabai 78.57 83.72 County 85.42 83.3 The vegetation condition index recorded was above Kinango 85.72 normal vegetation greenness in March which was stable KWALE 85.51 Lunga 86.49 when compared to last month. 84.35 Matuga 83.82 78.37 Msambweni 80.81 County 101.23 90.68 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in 107.48 LAMU vegetation condition at above normal vegetation Lamu east 91.21 greenness condition during the month of March. 97.61 Lamu west 90.37 County 85.87 TAITA 92.25 TAVETA 90.62 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation Mwatate 95.33 98.9 greenness during the month of March. Taveta 104.3 77.57 Voi 85.41 102.79 Wundanyi 102.65 County 87.95 84.75 The County recorded above normal vegetation 95.74 greenness in the month of March which was stable when Emurua Dikirr 94.47 compared to the last month of February. Kilgoris 81.28 88.33 Narok east 89.75 NAROK 75.04 Narok north 71.41 92.41 Narok south 87.05 88.37 92.2 Narok west Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping Strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "April_2024.pdf": "APRIL 2024 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The onset of the Long Rains was timely across all Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties all through the third week of March to the first week of April. Subsequently, enhanced rainfall received throughout the month of April leading to extreme weather events in most ASALs counties. Enhanced rains were thus characterized by extreme wet conditions and floods in low laying zones in particular counties like Garissa, Tana River, Kitui, Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, Makueni, Kajiado. The floods had varied level of damage in these counties. The positive impacts included Figure 1: Drought Phase Classification in April 2024 good water recharge, vegetation regeneration and good crop performance. Negative impacts included human and livestock deaths including destruction of homes, schools and infrastructure that disrupted markets function. Optimal livestock productivity as evidenced by the good body condition and increasing milk production levels driven by shorter trekking distances to water sources and grazing areas was noted in all the counties. Consequently, based on these range of indicators that fell within their usual seasonal ranges, all the counties were categorized under the Normal drought phase. Despite the aforementioned impacts that continued to undermine the food security situation, response interventions by the Government and other stakeholders to a greater extent sufficed in mitigating the impacts of extreme weather variability. 1.1 Observed Drought Indicators 1.1.1 April 2024 Rainfall Performance Ordinarily the month of April marks the peak of the Long Rains season across all the ASAL counties except those within the coastal marginal agriculture cluster (CMA) whose rainfall peaks in May. Analysis of the rainfall performance throughout the reference period indicated that majority of the counties received near to above average rainfall (Figure 2). The Rains were characterized by moderate to severe storms in some counties. Generally, wet weather conditions were prevalent in most places with a few areas in Taita Taveta like Voi experiencing sunny conditions. Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Baringo recorded rainfall that was 151-200 percent of the long-term mean (LTM) for April while rainfall experienced in Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Nyeri accounted for 201-300 percent of the rainfall normally received over the subject month. Extremely high amounts exceeding 300 percent of the April LTM were recorded in Turkana (Turkana Central, parts of Turkana South, North and Loima). Garissa, Lamu, Tana Figure 2: April 2024 Rainfall Performance River and some parts of Marsabit received rainfall that represented 126-150 percent of the LTM with Kilifi, Kwale and Taita Taveta recording rainfall that was 76-125 percent of the LTM. 1.1.2 May 2024 Rainfall Outlook The outlook for May indicates that majority of the ASAL counties are likely to experience near average to above average rainfall (Figure 3). Equally, periodic storms are also likely to be experienced in some counties before the forecasted cessation over the third dekad of May. Above average rainfall is anticipated throughout the month in Baringo, West Pokot, Narok and the Western parts of Laikipia with the one forecasted for Turkana and Samburu being occasional. Intense rainfall is expected across the first dekad with progression throughout the month in Nyeri, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Eastern parts of Laikipia. Figure 3: May 2024 Rainfall Forecast Rainfall in these areas is forecasted to be above average with intermittent storms likely. With respect to the Pastoral North East cluster; near to average rainfall is expected over the reference period. The aforementioned scenario will be most likely for Marsabit county. Near to above average rainfall punctuated with sporadic storms is anticipated in counties within the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture cluster (Makueni and Kitui) and the same will most likely be replicated in Tana River, Taita Taveta and Kajiado. Total amounts of rainfall expected in counties falling within the coastal marginal agriculture cluster (Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu) are likely to be near to above average with May signifying the peak of the Long Rains season for these areas. 1.2 Vegetation condition Favorable vegetation condition was observed across all the ASAL counties over the subject month under review with significant improvement being noted since the previous review as soundly affirmed by the VCI-3month (Figure 4). Throughout the month of April, vegetation greenness remained above the normal vegetation greenness threshold as measured by the VCI-3month depicting the prevalent very good conditions. The observed vegetation condition could purely be attributed to the previous good Short Rains season coupled with the enhanced rainfall received since the timely onset of the Long Rains across majority of the counties resulting to massive vegetation regeneration. Consequently, dense canopies were thus evident over most areas whose robust health was further aided by below average land surface temperatures. Notably, all counties and their respective sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness over the period under review. Vegetation Condition Index Vegetation Condition Index March 2024 April 2024 Figure 4: Maps Illustrating Vegetation Condition Improvement from March to April 2024 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe Vegetation (0) (0) Deficit Moderate (0) (0) Vegetation Deficit Normal Vegetation (0) (6) Greenness Baringo (Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty), Laikipia (Laikipia West), Turkana (Turkana East), West Pokot (Kacheliba) Above-normal (23) (107) Vegetation Baringo, Mandera Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine), Mandera (South, Greenness Wajir, Marsabit, North, East, Lafey, Banisa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Garissa, Embu, South, West, Eldas and East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku, Kitui, Makueni, Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera, Fafi, Balambala, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Township, Daadab), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, South Kwale, Lamu, and Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Narok, Isiolo, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Makueni Turkana, Garissa, (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni, Kibwezi Tana River, East), Meru (Buuri, Central-Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe Kajiado, Samburu, North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania Taita Taveta, East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Laikipia Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai, Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North), West Pokot (Pokot South, Kapenguria, Sigor), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Central, West, Loima, South, North), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen, Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South, North, West), Samburu (East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Voi, Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi), Laikipia (East, North) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally good across the counties during the period under review. (Table 2). The above average rainfall received in April following the attainment of the onset over the third dekad of March to first dekad of April coupled with below average land surface temperature promoted massive regeneration of forage. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, April 2024 Pasture Browse Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Kitui, Laikipia, Wajir Makueni, Marsabit Lamu, Makueni Narok, Samburu Marsabit, Samburu, Baringo, Garissa Narok, Baringo Mandera, Wajir Garissa, Mandera Taita Taveta, Embu Taita Taveta, Meru Kwale, Isiolo, Nyeri, Tana River, Embu Turkana, Kwale, Isiolo, Nyeri, West Pokot Turkana Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Significant improvement in the body condition for all livestock species was observed in all the counties ranging from fair to good (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with considerably reduced trekking distance to water sources. Comparatively, the observed livestock body throughout the month of April was normal to above normal compared to this time of the year. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, April 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Turkana Kitui, Makueni Turkana Makueni, Meru, Narok West Pokot Meru, Samburu Samburu, West Pokot Tana River Narok, Baringo Baringo, Mandera Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Wajir Taita Taveta, Wajir Taita Taveta Tana River, Kwale Kwale, Marsabit Tharaka Nithi, Isiolo Embu, Garissa Marsabit, Embu, Nyeri, Laikipia, Nyeri, Garissa, Laikipia Isiolo 1.3.3 Milk production Increase in milk production was reported in 57 percent of the counties with the remaining 43 percent reporting a stable trend. The increase is attributable to high rates of kidding and lamping in small stock and calving in cattle plus improved livestock body condition due to stable forage regime and low morbidity rates. (Table 4). The production level over the reference period was above the usual seasonal range in approximately 61 percent of the counties and at par with the normal level in about 39 percent of the counties. Samburu and Embu recorded the lowest production of 0.5 and 0.8 litres among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that sequence. Noteworthy, mortalities witnessed over the previous seasons as a result of drought and floods still had a bearing in the production levels witnessed over the current season. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2024 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worse LTA ning Baringo, Isiolo Garissa Isiolo, Kajiado Baringo Mandera, Wajir, Embu, Meru, Mandera, Narok Garissa Turkana, Lamu, Samburu Marsabit, Wajir Samburu Kajiado, Kwale West- Pokot, Tana River Kilifi, Embu Kilifi, Kitui, Tana River Turkana, Nyeri Kwale, Lamu, Nyeri, Narok Marsabit Laikipia, Kitui Meru, Makueni Laikipia Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita- Taveta Makueni, Taita- Taveta West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) was reported in Huhoini (Igwamiti ward, Laikipia West sub county), Siana and Nkareta wards in Narok West and Narok North sub counties and Lelan in Pokot South sub county in West Pokot county. Equally, lumpy skin disease (LSD) was reported in Riachu, Mwiyogo and Malee in Tigithi ward,of Laikipia East sub county. Alarming occurrences of camel abortions were reported in Maalimin and Dujis locations within Lagdera sub county of Garissa county and some parts of Mandera while reports of cattle deaths continue emerging from Nanighi in Garissa county and the cause is yet to be established.. Rift Valley Fever (RVF) continue to be controlled inin Marsabit county with cases of tsetse flies among the large stock being noted in the plains of North Horr. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Improving to a stable trend in the market price of cattle was reported in estimated 82 percent of the ASAL counties across April (Table 5). However, decline in price was recorded in Turkana, Samburu, Narok and Tharaka Nithi attributable to market surplus as a result of the livestock being within the homesteads and therefore readily disposed coupled with destruction of access roads by floods thus limiting market access for competitive prices. On the other hand, the positive trend reported in majority of the areas was due to the improved cattle body condition. The prevailing cattle market price was above the usual seasonal price in all counties except in Taita Taveta whose reported price was at par with the long-term average. Above average cattle price was as a consequence of the continuous improvement in the body condition of the species driven by better rangeland conditions since the previous short rains season. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2024 Baringo, Garissa Taita- Marsabit Baringo Samburu Isiolo, Mandera Taveta Kilifi, Kitui Garissa Turkana Marsabit, Samburu Kwale Isiolo, Nyeri Narok Tana River, Meru Lamu, Meru Mandera Tharaka- Turkana, Wajir Makueni Tana River Nithi Embu, Kitui, Lamu Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Kajiado Kwale, Laikipia Laikipia Makueni, Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri, West Pokot West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Save for Turkana, Samburu, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi that reported a negative trend in the price of goat attributed to over supply to markets driven by increased food needs at the household level over the April holiday and damage of road and market infrastructure,however the trend remained stable and improving across the ASAL counties(Table 6). Price positivity in the aforementioned counties was driven by improved goat body condition, low market volumes and high demand for utilization during the festive period. The prevailing market price of goat across all the counties was above the normal prices for the period and that could be attributed to sustained improvement in the body condition. Based on the current demand-supply dynamics and the hoarding practices by pastoralists as a result of the good rangeland conditions; the price is projected to remain above the seasonal ranges for at least two months. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2024 Above LTA At Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Baringo, Garissa, Lamu Garissa Baringo, Isiolo Isiolo, Mandera, Narok Mandera Marsabit, Marsabit, Wajir, Nyeri Tana River Embu, Samburu, Embu, Kwale Wajir Kilifi, Kwale Tana River, Meru, Kitui Kajiado Laikipia, Narok Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Lamu Makueni Taita Taveta, Laikipia Meru, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi, Makueni West Pokot West Pokot Samburu 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production PNE Tana The enhanced rainfall had resulted to flooding in the county with River significant proportion of the cropland remaining submerged in water hence reducing the area under crop production. Irrigated crops in the major irrigation schemes were at various vegetative growth stages. SEMA Kitui Main crops (millet, cowpeas, green grams, sorghum, and maize) planted earlier in the season were at weeding stage and generally in good condition. Makueni Crops were at germination to knee high stage and in good condition. However, crops in parts of Kibwezi East and Kibwezi West sub counties were experiencing moisture stress following poor distribution of rains in the area. Infestation of invasive weeds was also hindering farming activities especially in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone. Meru Leaching in the low-lying areas had led to stunting of maize and yellowing of beans.. Poor crop performance was being experienced in parts of Tigania with the beans and maize being at the vegetative stage. Agro- Baringo Flooding of farms was reported in Sandai, Barwessa, Kabutiei and pastoral Kapluk locations. Acreage under crop production was anticipated to reduce further due to the expected further flooding. Laikipia Maize was at germination stage to knee high, beans at germination stage to four leaf stage and potatoes at germination stage to tuber initiation stage. High cost of farm inputs at the stockist and high cost of casual labour were major constraints to optimal production. Narok Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were at knee high stage with the condition of maize and beans being fair to good. The ongoing flooding had led to extreme loses especially along the irrigation schemes. About 60-80 percent of the crop is submerged with roughly 20-50 percent being washed away in these areas. 1.4.1 Maize prices Generally, the price of maize was stable and on reducing trend as result of good harvest from the previous short rains season.. Factors promoting price decline ranged from injection of more supplies to local markets by traders that were sourcing from markets adjacent to the respective counties, bumper harvests following a good short rains season, decline in fuel pump prices hence reduced transportation costs to appreciation of the Kenyan Shilling however destruction of roads by floods had some slight impact on markets due to limited access. . Table 8.0: Maize prices, April 2024 Above Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening LTA to LTA Garissa Isiolo Baringo, Embu Baringo Garissa, Embu, Tana- Mandera Kajiado, Kitui Samburu Kitui, Laikipia River, Marsabit Kwale, Laikipia Tana River Mandera, Makueni Turkana Samburu Makueni, Meru Kajiado Marsabit, Wajir Wajir Narok Nyeri Nyeri Turkana, Meru, Kilifi Taita Taveta West Pokot Lamu, Kwale Lamu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Tharaka- Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources remained stable and on improving trend across the counties . The decline in trekking distance could be attributed to improved water availability in facilities adjacent to households following the significant recharge that took place. Currently, the distance averages 4.7 kilometres compared to 5.5 kilometres previously among the Arid counties. Mandera county reported the longest distance of 8.2 kilometres while Isiolo recorded the shortest distance of 1.7 kilometres. In relation to the semi-arid counties, the distance currently averages 2.7 kilometres compared to 3.8 kilometres across March. The longest distance of 5.6 kilometres among the semi-arid counties was recorded in Lamu while the shortest of 1.1 kilometres was reported in Kilifi. The prevailing trekking distance in 70 percent of the counties was below the usual seasonal range and at par with the long-term average in four counties as illustrated in table 9. On the other hand, lower than normal trekking distance was boosted by sustained recharge of water facilities from the previous short rains season into the current long rains season. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, April 2024 Tana- Baringo, Isiolo Baringo, Isiolo Garissa River, Mandera, Meru Mandera, Kitui Kwale Kitui Marsabit, Nyeri Marsabit, Lamu Lamu Samburu, Narok Samburu, Narok Makueni Turkana, Embu Tana River, Nyeri Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi Turkana, Wajir Kwale Laikipia, Garissa Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru Taita Taveta Makueni, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta, Embu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced long rains. In arid counties, Mandera reported the longest trekking distance at 9.2 kilometers whereas Tana River County having the shortest at 2.0 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, trekking distances ranged from 2.0 kilometers to 6.5 kilometers, with Lamu reporting the longest and Tharaka Nithi the shortest distances. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the current long rains in 2024. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, April 2024 Mandera Baringo, Garissa Baringo, Garissa Tana Kwale Isiolo, Marsabit Isiolo, Marsabit River Makueni Tharaka Nithi Samburu, Wajir Kilifi Nyeri Samburu, Turkana Turkana, Embu Makueni West Tana River, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Narok Pokot Wajir, Kajiado Kwale, Laikipia West- Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Meru, Nyeri Pokot Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Mandera Laikipia, Meru Tharaka Nithi Lamu 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. Improved terms of trade is as result of stablising livestock prices against the reducing maize prices as result of good harvest from the previous season.. T Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, April 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Meru Taita- Baringo, Lamu Isiolo, Meru Isiolo, Mandera, Narok Taveta Garissa Marsabit Marsabit, Samburu Lamu Mandera Samburu Tana River, Turkana Tana River Embu Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Wajir, Kajiado Kwale Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Kitui, Makueni Laikipia Laikipia, West Pokot West Pokot Turkana Makueni, Nyeri Kilifi, Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi 1.7. Health and nutrition Improvement in the nutrition situation was noted across the ASAL counties (Table 12). Among the notable drivers cited for the observed positive trend included: improved access to milk for consumption and stabilized food security situation at the household level and improved hygiene and sanitation practices. Nutrition situation deteriorated in West Pokot and Mandera as a consequence of non-food related drivers such as increased morbidity rates for diarrhea, malaria and other water borne diseases and poor childcare practices. Overall, the reported malnutrition rates remained below the normal ranges in approximately 65 percent of the ASAL counties but outside the usual ranges in roughly 35 percent of the counties. The positive situation could be attributed to the general improvement in food security across most ASAL counties due to improved crop and livestock productivity. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2024 Baringo Isiolo, Mandera Baringo, Garissa Kitui Mandera Garissa Marsabit, Samburu Isiolo, Marsabit Lamu West Pokot Turkana Tana River, Wajir Samburu, Wajir Nyeri Kitui Embu, Kajiado Tana River, Embu Taita- Makueni Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Turkana, Kajiado Taveta Tharaka Laikipia, Narok Kilifi, Kwale Nithi Nyeri, Taita Taveta Laikipia, Makueni West Meru, Narok Pokot Tharaka Nithi 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, April 2024 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Samburu, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Tharaka Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Nithi, Tana River, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions No. Sector Intervention 1. Food and Food assistance to households displaced by floods and scaling up safety nets shock responsive cash transfers targeting the population categorized under IPC phase 3 as a consequence of losing livelihoods during the historic prolonged drought across the ASAL counties. 2. Coordination Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate floods response activities and implementation of resilience strengthening initiatives through convening regular meetings, monitoring and reporting. 3. Livestock Conduct restocking exercise targeting areas that reported high sector mortality rates and vaccination drives against diseases associated with wet conditions such as Rift Valley Fever. Improving access to extension services 4. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. 5. Peace and Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use security sector agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 6. Education Rehabilitation of infrastructure destroyed by floods while promoting sector hygiene and sanitation practices in learning institutions. 7. Health and Promotion of hygiene and sanitation activities within high risk nutrition communities and managing malnutrition through supply of essential sector nutrition commodities (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food RUTF and Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th April, 2024 County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 VCI Colou month month values (3- Drought Category as at as at month) 31st 30th Vegetation Mar April 50 greenness above 2024 2024 normal Normal vegetation 35 - 50 greenness Moderate vegetation 20 - 35 Severe vegetation 10 - 20 Extreme vegetation Baringo County 52.17 50.68 Vegetation greenness remained above Central 76.35 70.16 normal across three Sub counties while Mogotio, Tiaty and Baringo South recorded North 57.05 52.05 normal vegetation greenness just like the South 45.15 43.01 previous month. Ravine 79 78.2 Mogotio 41.61 40.92 Tiaty 46.57 42.53 Mandera County 87.45 77.13 Lafey 89.3 74.69 North 85.68 74.66 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Banissa 65.85 52.15 greenness remained above normal across all West 81.42 79.13 South 107.51 99.17 81 67.2 Turkana County 57.27 68.48 All the Sub counties recorded above normal East 37.39 41.88 vegetation greenness except Turkana East whose vegetation condition was within the South 51.16 54.7 normal band just like the previous month. Loima 70.39 75.66 Central 55.7 62.91 West 70.85 78.14 North 54.73 67.32 Marsabit County 73.77 72.44 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Laisamis 89.18 77.27 greenness remained above normal across all Moyale 77.46 73.17 North Horr 62.34 61.79 Saku 106.88 87.15 Wajir County 86.77 78.3 Stability in the condition of vegetation was Tarbaj 90.03 82.69 observed over April with the vegetation greenness being above normal across the North 96.31 89.58 respective Sub counties. South 76.1 76.82 West 98.17 77.64 Eldas 89.42 76.5 East 89.64 80.25 Samburu County 74.55 75.74 All the Sub counties reported above normal East 76.88 76.03 vegetation greenness with a slight shift in the VCI-3month values from those recorded North 78.08 81.07 previously across the County. West 52.52 51.63 Garissa County 79.6 76.09 Stability in the condition of vegetation was Balambala 76.42 71.39 witnessed in April with the vegetation greenness being above normal across all sub Township 81.69 74.42 counties. Ijara 91.79 91.85 Fafi 78.76 75.07 Lagdera 84.58 79.61 Dadaab 65.29 62.69 Isiolo County 92.63 78.12 Similar to the previous month, vegetation North 98.9 85.73 greenness remained above normal across all South 83.05 75.18 Tana River County 68.79 70.07 Bura 71.87 67.15 Notable improvement in the condition of Galole 59.43 65.19 vegetation was witnessed in April with the vegetation greenness being above normal. Garsen 72.03 75.16 Kajiado County 88.12 85.87 The county reported above normal Central 89.13 81.08 vegetation greenness with a significant improvement being witnessed in Kajiado East 87.46 79.90 North. North 87.1 95.47 South 82.43 74.63 West 92.48 87.71 Embu County 76.54 77.36 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Manyatta 84.41 90.32 greenness remained above normal across all Mbeere North 74.43 75.22 Mbeere South 72.07 72.66 Runyenjes 89.26 93.45 Kitui County 64.36 65.82 Above normal vegetation greenness was Central 81.69 83.2 observed across all the Sub counties. East 61.61 60.15 Rural 78.1 76.8 South 67.05 68.09 West 73.54 69.17 Mwingi 56.62 55.77 Central Mwingi North 57.42 53.54 Mwingi West 76.54 71.62 Makueni County 85.85 81.31 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Kaiti 93.96 97.18 greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Significant regeneration Kibwezi East 88.49 75.12 was witnessed in Kaiti. Kibwezi West 79.99 76.18 Kilome 90.26 91.53 Makueni 83.15 80.79 Mbooni 89.33 87.47 Meru County 82.12 78.28 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Buuri 85.6 86.54 greenness remained above normal across all Central-Imenti 79.26 80.68 Igembe Central 79.63 75.57 Igembe North 90.98 85.16 Igembe South 70.63 74.49 North Imenti 78.45 79.18 South Imenti 88.87 95.4 Tigania East 74.48 75.42 Tigania West 83.75 80.69 Nyeri County 81.67 88.57 Kieni 78.74 83.61 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Mathira 76.7 85.93 greenness remained above normal across all Mukurweini 89.47 92.14 Nyeri Town 91.9 82.75 Othaya 89.2 94.36 Tetu 86.95 90.26 Kilifi County 70.53 71.39 Above normal vegetation greenness was Ganze 66.22 72.27 observed across all the Sub counties. Kaloleni 68.79 65.07 Kilifi North 71.22 70.55 Kilifi South 60.73 58.18 Magarini 72.75 71.22 Malindi 72.15 77.65 Rabai 76.41 76.94 Kwale County 83.72 82.93 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Kinango 83.3 81.46 greenness remained above normal across all Lunga Lunga 85.51 84.68 Matuga 84.35 82.39 Msambweni 78.37 75.84 Lamu County 101.23 102.72 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Lamu East 107.48 109.23 greenness remained above normal across all Lamu West 97.61 99.19 Taita County 85.87 82.51 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Taveta Mwatate 90.62 86.36 greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Regeneration in Voi was Taveta 98.9 92.4 fair due to the low amount of rainfall Voi 77.57 78.49 received. Wundanyi 102.79 97.82 Narok County 87.95 88.6 Above normal vegetation greenness was Emurua Dikirr 95.74 91.88 observed across all the Sub counties. Kilgoris 82.7 79.05 Narok East 88.33 82.56 Narok North 75.04 76.92 Narok South 92.41 96.18 Narok West 92.2 86.83 West Pokot County 48.86 51.49 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Kacheliba 39.98 46.3 greenness remained above normal in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones of Pokot Kapenguria 50.15 53.61 South and West while Pokot North and Pokot South 72.95 77.12 Central reported normal vegetation Sigor 49.7 53.28 greenness just like the previous month. Tharaka County 67.27 63.11 Nithi Chuka 81.19 78.36 Maara 83.13 87.22 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all Tharaka 56.95 51.98 Laikipia County 61.36 56.33 Above normal vegetation greenness was Laikipia East 69.29 68.14 observed across all the Sub counties. Laikipia North 64.21 61.76 Laikipia West 52.2 42.79 Table 16.0: Indicators Monitored by the Drought Early Warning System Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop condition Access Terms of trade (goatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls Figure 5: Drought Cycle for Phase Classification within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 16). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: Normal, Alert, Alarm, Emergency or Recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.",
            "May_2024.pdf": "May 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview All the counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season. The risks associated with wet condition are equally subsiding across the ASAL counties. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase following the cessation of MAM long rains. However, situation is projected to deteriorate during JJA season, in some Arid counties of ASAL with exception of the western parts of the ASAL counties including; Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Baringo which usually Fig 1: Drough t Phase Classification, May 2024 receives JJA rains. Monitoring of the population flagged out in February food security assessment, Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, number of people in need of assistance stands at 1.9 million. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 847,932 children aged 6 to 59 months and 124,359 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of May 2024. 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 May 2024 Rainfall Performance The May 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received above average rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 125mm to 300mm. Wajir county received very low amount of rainfall ranging between 25mm 125mm. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded rainfall amounts ranging between 75mm 300mm. Turkana County received low amounts of rainfall up to 25mm 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture Figure 2. May 2024 Rainfall Performance counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties reported early rainfall onset, received rainfall amounts ranging between 125mm to 300mm. Similar situation was noted with Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received amounts of rainfall ranging between 25mm to 76mm. Taita Taveta county received the least amount of rainfall within the coastal cluster as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 June 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of June 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to remain mainly dry with sunny conditions. Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Narok parts Figure 3. June 2024 Rainfall forecast of Samburu and Laikipia are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2024 with that of the previous month of April 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of May remained the same when compared to that of the month of April. April 2024 May 2024 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of April and May 2024 The month of May 2024 indicated sustained improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous March, April and May months 2024. Stability in vegetation is due to the ongoing MAM 2024 long rains season, which was normal in most parts of ASAL counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. The following one (1) county; Baringo recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twenty-one (22) counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu, West Pokot and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in May 2024 indicates further improvement from the previous month, April 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of May 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) Moderate (0) (0) Normal (1) (6) vegetation Baringo Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana greenness (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) Above (22) (107) normal Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Vegetation Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, greenness Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui Makueni, Mandera, (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Tana River, Tharaka Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Turkana and West Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Pokot Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition During the period under review, forage condition was generally good in all the counties (Table 2). However, some parts of Garissa county reported fair forage, which is attributable to Tree locust infestation. Overall, the observed good forage situation in terms of quantity and quality was as a consequence of the enhanced rainfall recorded throughout the March to May Long Rains period in all the ASAL counties. Stability in pasture and browse is forecasted across June due to the timely to late cessation of the rainfall witnessed in these regions. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, May 2024 Pasture Browse Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Makueni, Narok, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Kilifi, Isiolo, Meru, Nyeri Taita Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Taveta, Kajiado, Lamu, Garissa Samburu, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, West Wajir, Pokot Tana River, Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Mandera, Laikipia, Lamu, Samburu, Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, West Pokot, Wajir, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Mandera, 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for both cattle and goats, was generally good to very good based on the pictorial evaluation tool evidence. Majority of the counties, reported remarkable improvement in the body condition for all livestock species across the Long Rains period. Consequently, about 82 and 91 percent of the counties recorded the condition as being good for cattle and goats accordingly (Table 2). Forage and water resources availability within shorter trekking distances, were cited as the drivers of the observed situation. However, roughly 18 and 9 percent of the areas reported fair for the cattle and small stock and that could be attributed to constraints in accessing quality forage whose quantity was dwindling due to locust infestation in the affected areas. Noteworthy, the observed livestock body condition in May exceeded the one usually witnessed over the month. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, May 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana Makueni, Narok Lamu Makueni, Narok, Lamu Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru Tana River Kilifi Tana River Isiolo, Kwale, Embu Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Garissa Kitui, Samburu Meru, West Pokot West Pokot, Wajir Taita Taveta, Baringo, Taita Taveta Kajiado, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Turkana Mandera, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado Baringo Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Laikipia, Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Significant improvement in the production level was recorded in 70 percent of the ASAL counties with the remaining 30 percent reporting a stable trend (Table 4). Availability of adequate forage and water within shorter trekking distances, ongoing calving and kidding coupled with improved livestock body condition was attributed to the recorded trend. The prevailing yield level reported in May was above the normal level for the period in about 61 percent of the counties, at par with the seasonal range in 17 percent of the areas and below the LTA in 22 percent of the ASAL regions. Samburu recorded the lowest average milk production of 0.7 litres among the Arid counties while Embu reported the lowest average of 0.9 litres among the Semi-Arid Counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2024 Baringo, Isiolo Embu Marsabit Baringo, Kwale Isiolo, Turkana, Wajir Kitui Tana River Marsabit, Lamu Kilifi Kilifi, Garissa Samburu Lamu Samburu, Meru Turkana Kwale, Kajiado Makueni Narok, Laikipia Kajiado Laikipia Taita Taveta Tana River Makueni, Meru, Mandera West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Taita- Narok, Nyeri Garissa, Nyeri Taveta Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Embu Kitui Wajir, West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases During the month under review, suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in cattle was reported in Siana, Naroosura and Nkareta Wards in Narok, Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone of Lamu, Igembe North and Tigania West in Meru. Confirmed cases of lumpy skin disease (LSD) was recorded in Matanya, Solio and Nyahururu in Laikipia while an outbreak of the same affecting cattle was reported around Kibish in Turkana County. Alarming occurrences of camel abortions was witnessed in Maalimin and Dujis in Garissa with an upsurge of the same being noted in Marsabit and Mandera where epidemiological investigations were ongoing. Reports of cattle deaths attributed to suspected vector-borne illnesses emerged from Nanighi in Garissa with trypanosomiasis, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis suspected to be contributing to the mortalities witnessed. Additionally, cases of foot rot disease were reported in areas of Kathangachini and Gatunga Wards in Tharaka Nithi. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Stable trend in the market price of cattle was reported in approximately 78 percent of the counties over the period under review (Table 5). The positive trend reported in majority of the areas, was as a result of the improved cattle body condition hence a better market return value. Notably, decline in price was recorded in five counties constituting 22 percent of the ASALs including Kitui, Kajiado, Garissa, Embu and Kilifi attributed to high traded volumes following the reopening of schools. The reported price in May was above the LTA in all counties except Taita Taveta where it was at par with the normal price for the period. Notable factors driving the observed situation included enhanced availability of pasture across the Long Rains season that sustained the body condition within desirable levels, market deficits in some regions and high demand for meat within external markets. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2024 Baringo, Isiolo, Taita Turkana, Samburu Marsabit, Makueni Taveta Meru Makueni Embu Marsabit, Baringo, West Pokot, Kilifi, Kajiado Samburu Isiolo, Wajir, Lamu Kitui, Garissa Turkana, Wajir, Kwale, Narok Narok, Taita Kajiado, Kilifi, Taveta Kitui Tharaka Kwale, Lamu, Nithi, Meru Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Nyeri Mandera West Pokot, Tana River Mandera, Embu, Garissa, Tana River 1.3.6 Goat Prices Over the subject reference period, about 61 percent of the counties reported an improving trend while the price in Marsabit, Samburu and Makueni remained relatively unchanged from the previous month. Among the factors driving the positive trend included improved goat body condition occasioned by the availability of palatable browse within sites in close proximity to households and water sources hence reduced trekking distance. On the other hand, about 26 percent of the ASAL counties recorded a negative trend purely driven my market surplus as parents sought to facilitate their children back to school through sale of the most liquid asset (Table 6). Notably, the reported price across all counties in May was above the corresponding long-term average as depicted in table 6. The scenario was basically influenced by the sustained improvement in the body condition throughout the March to May rainfall season with the situation projected to remain similar across June. Table 6.0: Goat prices, May 2024 Baringo, Isiolo, Baringo, Nyeri, Marsabit Isiolo, Embu Mandera Tana River, Lamu, Samburu Wajir, Kitui Marsabit, Laikipia Makueni Tharaka Nithi Samburu, Meru Turkana, Kilifi Mandera Tana River, Kajiado, Kwale Wajir, Laikipia Taita Taveta, Turkana, Meru, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi, West Pokot Kitui, Kwale, Garissa West Pokot Lamu, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Embu 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production SEMA Kitui Main crops planted were mostly at past knee-high stage with their condition being generally good. Makueni Crops were at knee highflowering stage and in fair to good condition while in the Mixed Farming livelihood zone, the crops were at poddingtussling stage. Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county were incurring losses due to water logging. Embu maize was at tussling stage while legumes were at the flowering stage in Mixed Farming Zone while in the Marginal mixed farming zone, maize was at grain filling stage with legumes being at podding stage. Agropastoral Kajiado Crops were at maturity and in fair condition with beans mainly in Loitoktok at podding stage while maize had started tussling. Heavy rains resulted to water logging, soil erosion and nutrient leaching on most farms. Fall Army Worm was reported in about 40 percent of the farms with Tuta absoluta reported in about 35 of the farms. Laikipia Weeding and spraying against pests and diseases was ongoing. Crops had been affected by water logging and excessive moisture leading to the leaching of nutrients and reduction in expected yields mostly for beans and potatoes. Maize was at knee high to reproductive stage, beans at weeding to reproductive stage and potatoes at spraying to earthing up stage. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at grain fillingtasselling stages with the condition of maize and beans being fair to good. Coast Kilifi Main farming activity ongoing was maize and cassava crops weeding Marginal with few farmers planting while the condition of the crop was poor. Agriculture 1.4.1 Maize prices The price of maize declined in majority (57 percent) of the counties with stable trend being recorded in roughly 30 percent of the counties while Embu, Garissa and Kwale recorded a slight increase in the trading price (Table 8). Increased supplies to the market from external markets and via imports and reduced transportation costs were cited as the major drivers of the price decline while increasing reliance on markets within the marginal agriculture areas where household stocks were dwindling compounded by poor road infrastructure that disrupted distribution in some areas were noted as the factors driving the upward shift in maize price. Comparatively, the prevailing price was below the usual range in about 70 percent of the counties and above in roughly 26 percent of the counties with Turkana returning a price that was at par with the LTA. The noted positive scenario was as a consequence of continuous supply of the commodity to markets, availability of substitute cereals and increased cross-border imports leading to a relatively stable market performance. Table 8.0: Maize prices, May 2024 Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening to LTA Baringo Turkana Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo Wajir, Kitui, Isiolo, Kwale Tana River Nyeri Turkana West Pokot Wajir, Meru Lamu Marsabit, Kajiado Kilifi, Nyeri Makueni, Garissa Kilifi, Tharaka- Nithi, Taita- Taveta Samburu, Makueni, Narok West Pokot Laikipia Taita- Taveta Garissa Tana River, Laikipia Kwale Mandera Lamu, Meru, 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources slightly increased but within the normal ranges, with Mandera reporting the longest trekking distance (7.7km) and Isiolo the shortest (1.8Km) among the Arid counties. Lamu recorded the longest distance (5.6km), while Meru reported the shortest (1.4km) among Semi-arid counties. The generally lower-than-normal trekking distances were attributed to water recharge during the March April May rainfall season of 2024. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, May 2024 Lamu, Tana Baringo, Isiolo Baringo, Lamu, Kilifi Wajir River Marsabit, Meru Turkana, Marsabit Wajir Kwale, West Samburu, Nyeri Makueni, Samburu, Garissa Pokot Turkana, Narok Meru, West Narok Mandera Kajiado, Nyeri Pokot, Tana River, Laikipia Kilifi, Kitui Nyeri Embu Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Garissa, Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Marsabit, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi Kwale, 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced short rains. In arid counties, Mandera reported the longest trekking distance at 11 kilometers whereas Isiolo County having the shortest at 2.8 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, Kwale reported the longest and Embu the shortest distances at 4.4km and 2.1. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the current long rains in 2024. The stability and slight increase in distances indicate positive conditions for livestock welfare in ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, May 2024 Narok Kitui Baringo, Isiolo, Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit Kajiado West Pokot Laikipia Marsabit, Samburu Samburu, Turkana, Tana- Narok Kwale Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, Lamu, River, Tharaka- Garissa Makueni Kilifi Nithi. Wajir, Kajiado, Meru, West Pokot, Kitui Garissa Kilifi, Nyeri Mandera Kwale Lamu, Makueni, Nyeri Laikipia Meru, Taita Taveta Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Taita- Taveta 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. In arid counties, Turkana reported the lowest terms of trade among Arid while in semi-arid regions, Nyeri recorded the lowest terms of trade. Comparatively, the terms of trade were above normal when measured against the longterm average. The positive shift in terms of trade is attributed to the concluded harvesting activities, which are contributing to price stabilization in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, May 2024 Current Status Trend Baringo, Embu, Baringo, Laikipia Isiolo Kitui Wajir Samburu Garissa Meru Isiolo, Kitui, Turkana, Nyeri Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Lamu Kajiado, Narok Garissa Embu Mandera, Kilifi, Lamu Wajir Marsabit Makueni, Samburu, West West Pokot Kwale Pokot Taita Taveta Tana River, Tana River Turkana Kajiado, Kwale, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, 1.7. Health and nutrition Child malnutrition conditions improved in Baringo, Isiolo, Samburu, Kilifi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi and Laikipia compared to the previous month. This positive trend is a result of ongoing nutrition interventions through health outreaches and improved food consumption, particularly from enhanced access to nutritious items such as fresh milk, pulses, and seasonal vegetables. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2024 Current status Baringo, Kitui Isiolo, Wajir, Baringo, Marsabit Tana River Tana River Kilifi Isiolo Kajiado Lamu Turkana, Lamu Marsabit, Samburu, Makueni Meru Makueni Meru, Kilifi Narok West Pokot Nyeri Turkana, West Garissa Samburu, Wajir Pokot Mandera Embu, Kitui, Narok Kwale, Kajiado, Embu, Kwale Garissa Taita Taveta, Taita Taveta, Laikipia Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Mandera 2.0 DROUGHT PHASE CLASSIFICATION Based on the environmental and socio-economic range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable trend in Majority of these areas. However, an improving trend was noted in Isiolo, Samburu and Turkana while a worsening trend was reported in Kilifi and Garissa as illustrated in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, May 2024 Drought status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Garissa, Kilifi Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Samburu, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions No. Sector Intervention 1. Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation, given the likely dry conditions in June- September 2024, before onset of OND2024 season. Stakeholders to sensitized on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during MAM 2024. 2. Food and Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash safety nets transfers targeting vulnerable groups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain IGAs for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. 3. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Nino rains; Support for point-of-use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. 4. Livestock Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate sector migrations and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistribution. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during OND 2024. 5. Health and Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. nutrition Promote health seeking behaviour through community health sector strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. 6. Peace and Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use security sector agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthening community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. 7. Education Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and sector attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote home grown solutions to school feeding programmes . Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th May 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values (3- at 28th at 26th month) Apr May 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2024 2024 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 49.63 49.63 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in May. 69.63 69.63 52.76 52.76 44.27 44.27 78.53 78.53 Ravine 40.2 40.2 Mogotio 43.93 43.93 Tiaty MANDERA County 77.01 77.01 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of April at above normal vegetation greenness. 71.93 71.93 Lafey 73.8 73.8 56.75 56.75 Banissa 79.53 79.53 98.06 98.06 60.53 60.53 TURKANA County 64.04 64.04 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during 39.19 39.19 54.89 54.89 74.56 74.56 Loima 61.75 61.75 81.27 81.27 64.31 64.31 MARSABIT County 68.75 68.75 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in May which was stable when compared to previous month of 79.12 79.12 April. Laisamis 69.35 69.35 Moyale 61.74 61.74 North Horr 87.21 87.21 WAJIR County 80.7 80.7 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in May, as compared to the previous month of April. 86.82 86.82 Tarbaj 89.17 89.17 75.01 75.01 77.92 77.92 80.05 80.05 Eldas 84.99 84.99 SAMBURU County 74.94 74.94 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 74.88 74.88 81.46 81.46 52.33 52.33 GARISSA County 76.47 76.47 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above 69.64 69.64 Balambala 71.56 71.56 Township 90.82 90.82 Ijara 75.3 75.3 81.43 81.43 Lagdera 63.43 63.43 Dadaab ISIOLO County 83 83 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in April, which was stable when compared to last month. 87.27 87.27 76.48 76.48 TANA County 68.78 68.78 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the RIVER 68.01 68.01 month of May. 62.43 62.43 Galole 73.4 73.4 Garsen KAJIADO County 82.39 82.39 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. 85.88 85.88 82.74 82.74 91.86 91.86 73.95 73.95 86.89 86.89 LAIKIPIA County 55.68 55.68 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 68.22 68.22 58.96 58.96 43.52 43.52 THARAKA County 64.28 64.28 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the NITHI month under review. 82.85 82.85 Chuka 86.65 86.65 Maara 50.13 50.13 WEST County 84.99 84.99 The county recorded improvement in vegetation greenness in POKOT normal vegetation greenness during the month of May. 52.87 52.87 Kacheliba 44.09 44.09 Kapenguria 54.06 54.06 Pokot south 77.04 77.04 Sigor EMBU County 76.9 76.9 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during Manyatta 74.81 74.81 Mbeere north 70.08 70.08 Mbeere south 92.78 92.78 Runyenjes KITUI County 62.67 62.67 82.99 82.99 Kitui central 60.93 60.93 Kitui east The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above 76.75 76.75 Kitui rural 66.18 66.18 Kitui south 67.29 67.29 Kitui west Mwingi 55.11 55.11 central 53.92 53.92 Mwingi north 73.7 73.7 Mwingi west County 80.7 80.7 99.92 99.92 Kaiti The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in May, which was stable when compared to previous month of 76.6 76.6 Kibwezi east April. 75.34 75.34 MAKUENI Kibwezi west 89.68 89.68 Kilome 79.78 79.78 Makueni 87.69 87.69 Mbooni County 81.7 81.7 86.26 86.26 Buuri 81.26 81.26 Central Imenti The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across 76.93 76.93 the sub-counties during the month of May. Igembe central 86.43 86.43 Igembe north 71.26 71.26 Igembe south 80.63 80.63 North Imenti 91.41 91.41 South Imenti 74.47 74.47 Tigania east 82.2 82.2 Tigania west County 87.91 87.91 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in 85.63 85.63 NYERI Kieni 89 89 Mathira 90.91 90.91 Mukurweini 87.36 87.36 Nyeri town 93.54 93.54 Othaya 91.63 91.63 County 70.36 70.36 69.89 69.89 Ganze 67.23 67.23 Kaloleni The county remained at above normal vegetation greenness in 69.18 69.18 the month of May. Kilifi north KILIFI 51.35 51.35 Kilifi south 71.36 71.36 Magarini 77.55 77.55 Malindi 75.62 75.62 Rabai 83.51 83.51 County 83.41 83.41 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal Kinango vegetation greenness in May which was stable when compared KWALE 85.7 85.7 to last month. Lunga Lunga 84.11 84.11 Matuga 72.37 72.37 Msambweni County 102.41 102.41 108.88 108.88 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in Lamu east vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness 98.67 98.67 condition during the month of May. Lamu west County 84.46 84.46 87.17 87.17 Mwatate The county remained stable at above normal vegetation TAITA 92.87 92.87 greenness during the month of May. TAVETA Taveta 78.91 78.91 98.74 98.74 Wundanyi County 87.5 87.5 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the 86.11 86.11 Emurua Dikirr month of April which was stable when compared to the last month of April. 80.64 80.64 NAROK Kilgoris 84.97 84.97 Narok east 80.27 80.27 Narok north 93.87 93.87 Narok south Narok west Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping Strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score SUMMARY OF THE DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 1 . NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5 . RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4 . EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "June_2024.pdf": "June 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview 23 ASAL counties continued to fall under the Normal drought phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season. The risks associated with wet conditions are equally subsiding across the ASAL counties. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase following the cessation of MAM long rains. However, situation is projected to deteriorate during JJA season, in some Arid counties of ASALs except for the western parts of the ASAL counties including; Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Figure 1. June 2024 Drought Phase Baringo which usually receives JJA rains. The planned Long Rains Assessment (LRA) 2024 in July is expected to provide updated numbers of food insecure population in the ASAL counties. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of June 2023. 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 June 2024 Rainfall Performance The June 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties remained dry during the month under review. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received less than 25mm of rainfall. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded considerable amounts of rainfall amounts ranging between 26mm 75m. This is attributed to the JJA rainfall season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties remained dry, receiving trace amounts of rainfall. Similar situation was noted with Figure 2. June 2024 Rainfall Performance Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received considerable amounts of rainfall ranging between 51- 76mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 July 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of July 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties include; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to remain mainly sunny and dry conditions. Turkana, West Pokot, Figure 3. July 2024 Rainfall forecast Baringo, Narok parts of Samburu and Laikipia are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 Depicts the vegetation condition index (VCI) in June 2024 from the previous month of May 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in June remained the same from that of the month May 2024 June 2024 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of May and June 2024 The month of June 2024 indicated sustained improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous May months 2024. Stability in vegetation is due to the ongoing MAM 2024 long rains season, which was normal in most parts of ASAL counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. All the twenty-three (23) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu, West Pokot, Baringo and Kwale recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in June 2024 indicates further improvement from the previous month, May 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) Moderate (0) (0) Normal (0) (0) greenness Above (23) (113) normal Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Vegetation Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, greenness Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui Makueni, Mandera, (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Tana River, Tharaka Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Turkana and West Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Pokot, Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Baringo Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition During the period under review, forage condition was generally good in all the counties (Table 2). However, some parts of Garissa County reported fair forage, which is attributable to tree locust infestation. Overall, the observed good forage situation in terms of quantity and quality was as a result of enhanced rainfall recorded throughout the March to May long rains period in all the ASAL counties. Stability in pasture and browse is forecasted across June due to the timely to late cessation of the rainfall witnessed in these regions. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, June 2024 Pasture Browse Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Makueni, Narok, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Kilifi, Isiolo, Meru, Nyeri Taita Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Taveta, Kajiado, Lamu, Garissa Samburu, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, West Wajir, Pokot Tana River, Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Mandera, Laikipia, Lamu, Samburu, Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, West Pokot, Wajir, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Mandera, Laikipia 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for both cattle and goats, was generally good to very good based on the pictorial evaluation tool evidence. Majority of the counties, reported remarkable improvement in the body condition for all livestock species across the Long Rains period. Consequently, about 82 and 91 percent of the counties recorded the condition as being good for cattle and goats accordingly (Table 3). Forage and water resources availability within shorter trekking distances, were cited as the drivers of the observed situation. However, roughly 18 and 9 percent of the areas reported fair for the cattle and small stock and that could be attributed to constraints in accessing quality forage whose quantity was dwindling due to locust infestation in the affected areas. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, June 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana Makueni, Narok Lamu Makueni, Narok, Tana River Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru Tana River Kilifi Garissa Isiolo, Kwale, Embu Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Wajir Kitui, Samburu Meru, West Pokot West Pokot, Taita Taveta, Baringo, Taita Taveta Kajiado, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Turkana Mandera, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado, Lamu Baringo Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Embu Laikipia, Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Significant improvement in the production level was recorded in 70 percent of the ASAL counties with the remaining 30 percent reporting a stable trend (Table 4). Availability of adequate forage and water within shorter trekking distances, ongoing calving and kidding coupled with improved livestock body condition was attributed to the recorded trend. The prevailing yield level reported in June was above the normal level for the period in about 61 percent of the counties, at par with the seasonal range in 17 percent of the areas and below the LTA in 22 percent of the ASAL regions. Table 4.0: Milk production, June 2024 Baringo, Isiolo Embu Marsabit Baringo, Kwale Isiolo, Turkana, Wajir Kitui Tana River Marsabit, Lamu Turkana Kilifi, Garissa Samburu Lamu Meru Kajiado Kwale, Kajiado Makueni Narok, Laikipia Makueni, Laikipia Taita Taveta Tana River Kitui Meru, Mandera West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Samburu Narok, Nyeri Garissa, Nyeri Embu Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Wajir, West Pokot Taita- Taveta, Kilifi 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Suspected cases of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in cattle were reported in Mutara, Suguroi, Kiamariga, Salama, Saba and Table land in Laikipia County, Tigania West in Meru, Siana, Mosiro and Nkareta Wards in Narok West, Narok East and Narok North sub counties accordingly, Adamasajida Ward in Wajir West sub county, Gulanze and Ndavaya areas in Kinango sub county and parts of Samburu. In Mandera and Turkana, cases of abortions affecting small stock were recorded with epidemiological investigations and sampling ongoing over the period under review. Equally in Garissa, Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) disease was reported in Kumahumato, Dadaab sub county and Iftin in Township sub county. Additionally, estimated 2,865 goats in Marsabit presented PPR symptoms while 572 deaths were recorded with the case fatality rate (CFR) being 20 percent. About 1,021 Sheep in the same County had clinical symptoms with 184 deaths being reported while the CFR was recorded as eight percent. Increasing incidences of respiratory and septicemic diseases in camels were equally reported in Marsabit with the affected stock being about 1,618 out of which 185 had died. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Stability in the price of cattle was noted in majority of the counties during the month under analysis (Table 5). Improved cattle body condition attributed to availability of pasture and water within shorter trekking distance was cited as the major driver of the observed positive trend. However, a negative trend was noted in 39 percent of the counties ascribed to reduced demand against a stable supply of livestock in markets... Table 5.0: Cattle prices, June 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Tana Baringo, Mandera Wajir Garissa Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri River Marsabit, Samburu Kajiado Isiolo, Embu Samburu, Turkana, Wajir Kilifi, Kitui Lamu Tana River Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale, Laikipia Turkana Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia Taita Taveta Makueni Lamu, Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi Meru, Narok Narok, Taita Taveta West Pokot Nyeri Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Across the month of June, approximately 74 percent of the counties reported a stable trend in the price of goat with the remaining 26 percent recording an improving trend (Table 6). The stability in the market price of goat could be attributed to the improved goat body condition occasioned by browse and water availability within household vicinity sites. Noteworthy, all the counties reported prices that were above the respective long-term average for the month with the situation being ascribed to the stable body condition over the period under review. Table 6.0: Goat prices, June 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Samburu Baringo, Garissa Mandera, Marsabit Turkana Isiolo, Mandera Samburu, Tana River Wajir Marsabit, Narok Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kilifi Tana River, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kwale Kajiado, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Tharaka- Laikipia, Makueni Makueni, Meru, Narok Nithi Meru, Taita Taveta Nyeri, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Nyeri, Embu 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties over the period under review. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Kitui Maize was predominantly at maturity stage with the condition Marginal being fair in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone and poor in the Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone. Agriculture Makueni Most crops were at grain filling to harvesting stage and in fair SEMA to poor condition due to moisture stress. Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county lost their crops due to water logging and in parts of Kibwezi West and Kibwezi East sub counties, crops had withered due to moisture stress. Meru Maize harvesting was the major activity taking place with the yield expected to be below average due to destruction of crops through flooding over the Long Rains period and leaching resulting to stunted growth of maize and yellowing of beans. Meanwhile, a significant proportion of farmers in Igembe North and Central had opted to sell and store stunted maize stalks as a folder for livestock. Agro- Kajiado The condition of crops was fair except in Kajiado South pastoral where it was fair to poor. Waterlogging, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching due to the enhanced rains affected crop production. Majority of the farmers were harvesting beans while maize was at the cobbing to maturity stages. Baringo Maize was at tussling stage in the Mixed Farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones while beans were destroyed by the enhanced rainfall received across the March to May period with Tomatoes at harvesting stage. Narok Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were at harvesting stage (for green maize) and in fair to good condition. Laikipia Harvesting of beans and potatoes was ongoing with the yields being fair due to excessive moisture and water logging. Maize was above knee high to tussling stage with the production projected to be above normal due to the good performance of the Long Rains. West Maize was at grain filling stage while beans and green grams Pokot were at harvesting stage. However, water stress posed a significant on attainment of maturity for Maize in some parts of the county. Coast Marginal Kwale Cereals were at knee-high, tussling and flowering stage while Agriculture(CMA) pulses were at podding to maturity stage. Weeding was the major activity while the condition of maize ranged from poor to fair due to poor distribution of rains despite normal onset. Kilifi As a consequence of the poor temporal distribution of the Long Rains, crops were in poor condition with the risk of crop failure affecting about 50 percent cropland being likely. 1.4.1 Maize prices The price of maize remained stable in majority (56 percent) of the counties with an improving trend being recorded in roughly 26 percent of the counties. (Table 8). Stabilization in maize price over majority of the counties could be attributed to availability of household stocks from the Short Rains harvests and seamless supply of maize from external markets and cross-border trading. Enhanced availability of maize as a result of continuous supply from internal and external sources coupled with availability of other complementary cereals were the main factor driving the observed situation. Table 8.0: Maize prices, June 2024 Above Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening LTA to LTA Garissa Turkana Baringo, Isiolo, Embu Baringo Garissa, Isiolo Tana River Marsabit Mandera Samburu, Narok Samburu Mandera Meru Tana River Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Taita- Marsabit Laikipia Wajir Laikipia, Makueni Taveta, Turkana, Nyeri Makueni Lamu Meru, West Pokot Tharaka- Wajir, Kajiado Narok Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Nithi, Embu Lamu, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale West Pokot Kitui, Kwale 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Unchanged trekking distance to domestic water sources was recorded in 61 percent of the counties with the distance increasing slightly in about 39 percent of the counties over the month under review (Table 9). Mandera and Kitui recorded the longest distances of 7.8 and 5.8 kilometres among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively. Despite the recorded slight increase in some areas, generally the prevailing trekking distance over June was within the usual range in 83 percent of the counties and that could be attributed to the positive impact of two consecutive rainfall seasons. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, June 2024 Garissa Kitui Baringo, Isiolo Baringo, Wajir Garissa, Tana River Nyeri Mandera, Narok Mandera, Meru Marsabit, Kitui Turkana Tharaka Marsabit, Meru Laikipia, Narok Turkana, Wajir, Lamu Nithi Samburu, Embu West Pokot, Kajiado Kwale Kajiado, Kilifi Lamu, Narok Kwale, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Laikipia, Makueni Lamu, Tana Taita Taveta West Pokot River, Embu, Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Makueni, Samburu, Isiolo 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Stability in return trekking distance from grazing areas to water points was noted in about 48 percent of the counties with the remaining reporting a slight increase relative to the previous month (Table 10). Unchanged trekking distance was as a consequence of water availability within the traditional usual grazing areas following the recharge that took place across the Long Rains period with the negative trend being occasioned by declining rangeland resources in some areas, reduced flow along some seasonal rivers and decrease in alternative water sources in specific counties. The longest distance of 13.6 kilometres within the Arid counties was recorded in Garissa while Kitui returned the longest distance of 6.5 kilometres among the Semi-Arid counties. With respect to the prevailing trekking distance during the period under review, only two counties including Kwale and West Pokot reported distance that was above the usual range for the period under review. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, June 2024 Kwale Kitui Baringo, Isiolo Laikipia, Lamu Garissa, Isiolo, West Pokot Laikipia Mandera, Marsabit Mandera Samburu, Tana Narok Samburu, Turkana Marsabit River. Turkana, Taita- Tana River, Wajir Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Taveta Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Makueni Kwale, Meru Garissa Kilifi, Lamu Baringo Narok, Taita Nyeri Makueni, Meru West Pokot Taveta, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi 1.6 Terms of trade Stable terms of trade were recorded in about 65 percent of the counties with the remaining 35 percent of the ASAL counties recording a slight decline in relation to the previous month (Table 11). Stable maize prices driven by continuous supply following the recent harvests coupled with unchanged goat price whose body condition remained good were the major factors driving the observed stability. Garissa and Lamu reported the lowest terms of trade of 37.6 and 88 among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. Notably, household purchasing power as exhibited through the terms of trade remained fairly elevated in all the counties as a consequence of the prevailing conducive economic factors. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, June 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Tana- Baringo Mandera Garissa, Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit River, Samburu Marsabit Tana River Samburu, Turkana Lamu Wajir Turkana Embu, Laikipia Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Taita Taveta Kajiado Makueni Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Kitui Meru, Narok Laikipia, Makueni Kwale, Lamu Meru, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Narok, Taita Taveta Nyeri Nyeri, West Pokot 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation remained stable across majority of the ASAL counties during the period under review (Table 12). Notable factors driving the stability included: improved hygiene practices due to water availability, improved ease of access to health and nutrition services through outreaches coupled with improved milk consumption occasioned by the higher rates of calving. On the contrary, the negative trend reported in Narok and Embu was as a result of poor child care practices exacerbated by caregivers who were engaged in income generating activities. The reported malnutrition rates remained below the usual seasonal ranges in about 73 percent of the counties. Improved food security occasioned by better livestock and crop performance was the major factor influencing the below normal malnutrition rates in the ASAL areas across the period under analysis. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2024 Baringo Lamu Isiolo, Mandera, Nyeri Tana River Isiolo, Lamu, Kitui Embu, Garissa Marsabit, Samburu Turkana Mandera, Marsabit Narok Turkana Tana River, Laikipia Laikipia Kajiado, Baringo Kitui, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Meru Nyeri, Kwale Makueni Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Makueni, Kilifi West Pokot Narok, Taita Taveta Taita Taveta, Wajir Tharaka Nithi Garissa, Samburu Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the environmental and socio-economic range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable trend in Majority of these areas. However, an improving trend was noted in Isiolo, Samburu and Turkana while a worsening trend was reported in Kilifi and Garissa as illustrated in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, June 2024 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Garissa, Kilifi Samburu, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th June 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category month as month as (3-month) at 26th at 30th May June 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2024 2024 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 49.63 79.38 The county recorded above normal vegetation Central 69.63 86.69 North 52.76 80.75 South 44.27 78.39 Ravine 78.53 81.19 Mogotio 40.2 71.09 Tiaty 43.93 80.05 MANDERA County 77.01 101.79 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of May at above normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 71.93 108.09 North 73.8 102.29 Banissa 56.75 81.9 West 79.53 110.15 South 98.06 100.13 East 60.53 102.63 TURKANA County 64.04 90.51 The county recorded above normal vegetation East 39.19 77.37 South 54.89 89.33 Loima 74.56 103.27 Central 61.75 97.02 West 81.27 92.83 North 64.31 88.33 MARSABIT County 68.75 94.74 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June which was stable when compared to Laisamis 79.12 98.25 previous month of May. Moyale 69.35 91.88 North Horr 61.74 93.55 Saku 87.21 93.82 WAJIR County 80.7 85.88 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in June, as compared to the previous month Tarbaj 86.82 85.92 North 89.17 117.29 South 75.01 76.06 West 77.92 60.99 Eldas 80.05 91.83 East 84.99 97.91 SAMBURU County 74.94 99.56 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. East 74.88 98.13 North 81.46 105.04 West 52.33 86.23 GARISSA County 76.47 86.12 The county remained the same in vegetation Balambala 69.64 101.38 Township 71.56 81.31 Ijara 90.82 81.25 Fafi 75.3 77.71 Lagdera 81.43 95.51 Dadaab 63.43 92.56 ISIOLO County 83 82.7 The county recorded stability in above vegetation North 87.27 81.45 to last month. South 76.48 84.6 TANA RIVER County 68.78 73.33 The county recorded above normal vegetation Bura 68.01 84.1 Galole 62.43 64.44 Garsen 73.4 69.75 KAJIADO County 82.39 88.29 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in Central 85.88 88.54 the month of June. East 82.74 94.13 North 91.86 84.08 South 73.95 83.89 West 86.89 89.3 LAIKIPIA County 55.68 91.81 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the East 68.22 92.53 month under review. North 58.96 96.67 West 43.52 82.36 THARAKA County 64.28 78.68 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. NITHI Chuka 82.85 90.32 Maara 86.65 83.99 Tharaka 50.13 72.59 WEST POKOT County 84.99 71.38 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness in normal vegetation greenness during the month of Kacheliba 52.87 65.14 June. Kapenguria 44.09 71.52 Pokot south 54.06 85.77 Sigor 77.04 74.11 EMBU County 76.9 90.21 The county recorded above normal vegetation Manyatta 89.64 84.86 Mbeere north 74.81 93.67 Mbeere south 70.08 89.62 Runyenjes 92.78 90.66 County 62.67 85.48 KITUI Kitui central 82.99 97.94 Kitui east 60.93 91.86 Kitui rural 76.75 98.36 Kitui south 66.18 76.54 The county recorded a stability in vegetation Kitui west 67.29 96.25 Mwingi 55.11 93.55 Mwingi north 53.92 85.2 Mwingi west 73.7 101.35 County 80.7 90.74 MAKUENI Kaiti 99.92 97.01 Kibwezi east 76.6 74.2 The county recorded above normal vegetation Kibwezi west 75.34 92.13 to previous month of June. Kilome 89.68 92.61 Makueni 79.78 102.96 Mbooni 87.69 103.2 County 81.7 86.36 Buuri 86.26 89.04 Central Imenti 81.26 81.3 Igembe 76.93 89.29 The county recorded above normal vegetation Igembe north 86.43 89.11 greenness across the sub-counties during the month of June. Igembe south 71.26 87.55 North Imenti 80.63 77.87 South Imenti 91.41 83.04 Tigania east 74.47 83.51 Tigania west 82.2 83.14 County 87.91 83.42 The county recorded above normal vegetation NYERI Kieni 85.63 84.97 Mathira 89 85.47 Mukurweini 90.91 88.2 Nyeri town 87.36 84.18 Othaya 93.54 76.95 Tetu 91.63 76.31 County 70.36 55.57 KILIFI Ganze 69.89 51.79 Kaloleni 67.23 60.43 Kilifi north 69.18 65.96 Kilifi south 51.35 60.94 The county remained at above normal vegetation Magarini 71.36 53.91 Malindi 77.55 65.86 Rabai 75.62 69.42 KWALE County 83.51 64.52 Kinango 83.41 61.36 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal vegetation greenness in June which was stable Lunga Lunga 85.7 67.37 when compared to last month. Matuga 84.11 72.94 Msambweni 72.37 66.78 County 102.41 92.09 Lamu east 108.88 92.84 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation 98.67 91.65 Lamu west greenness condition during the month of June. County 84.46 75.95 TAITA TAVETA Mwatate 87.17 82.48 Taveta 92.87 84.76 Voi 78.91 69.26 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Wundanyi 98.74 88.78 County 87.5 83.59 NAROK Emurua Dikirr 86.11 78.74 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of June which was stable Kilgoris 80.64 73.37 when compared to the last month of May. Narok east 84.97 81.84 Narok north 80.27 77.26 Narok south 93.87 85.19 Narok west 89.64 91.11",
            "July_2024.pdf": "July 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-two counties were categorized under the Normal phase except Kilifi (Alert) based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as a result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season and ongoing JJAS light seasonal rains in western parts of Kenya. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase. However, the situation is projected to improve in coming months as we near onset of short rains, OND season. The number of people in need of assistance has dropped from 1.5M in February 2024 to 1M in August 2024.The number of children 6 to 59 months requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has reduced from 847,932 (Feb 2024) to 760,488 reported in July 2024. In addition, the number of pregnant and breastfeeding women requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has also reduced from 123,567 (Feb 2024) to 112,401 reported in July 2024(KFSSG LRA 2024) 1.1 Observed drought indicators igur 1. July 2024 Drought Phase 1.1.1 July 2024 Rainfall Performance July 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received trace amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received between 2 20 mm of rainfall. Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded considerable amounts of rainfall amounts ranging between 61mm 121mm. This is attributed to the JJA rainfall season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received trace amounts of rainfall ranging between 2mm 50mm. Agro Pastoral Figure 2. July 2024 Rainfall Performance cluster including; Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 61mm 100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received trace rainfall ranging between 11- 60mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 August 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of August 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties include; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; are forecasted to remain mainly sunny and dry conditions. Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. Parts of counties like Embu, Meru, Figure 3. August 2024 Rainfall forecast Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia Kajiado, Kitui and Narok are forecasted to experience intermittent cold and cloudy conditions with occasional rains. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in July 2024 with that of June 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in July remained the same compared to June. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness index. June 2024 July 2024 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of June and July 2024 July 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) compared to June 2024. Stability in vegetation was due to the impacts of MAM 2024 long rains season, which was normal in most parts of ASAL counties, coupled with JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties of Samburu, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Two counties; Kilifi and Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in July 2024 indicates stability when compared to June 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) Moderate (0) (0) Normal (2) (5) vegetation Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, greenness Lunga Lunga) Above (21) (108) normal Embu, Garissa, Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Vegetation Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), greenness Laikipia, Lamu, Kilifi (North, South, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui (Central, East, Makueni, Mandera, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Marsabit, Meru, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Nyeri, Samburu, Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tana (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, River, Tharaka Nithi, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Wajir, Narok, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Turkana and West Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Pokot, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta Baringo (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition During the period under review, forage conditions were predominantly good across all counties (Table 2). However, some areas in Garissa County reported fair forage due to tree locust infestation. Overall, the good forage situation, both in terms of quantity and quality, was attributed to the enhanced rainfall recorded throughout the March to May long rains period in all ASAL counties. Stability in pasture and browse is expected to continue through July due to the timely to slightly delayed cessation of rainfall in these regions. However, Kilifi County recorded poor browse condition attributed to poor performance of the 2024 long rains season in some parts of the county. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, July 2024 Pasture Browse Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Makueni, Narok, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Kilifi Isiolo, Meru, Nyeri Taita Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Taveta, Kajiado, Lamu, Garissa Samburu, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, West Wajir, Pokot Tana River, Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Mandera, Laikipia, Lamu, Samburu, Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, West Pokot, Wajir, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Mandera, 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of both cattle and goats was generally good to very good, as evidenced by the pictorial evaluation tool. Most counties reported significant improvement in the body condition of all livestock species throughout the Long Rains period. Consequently, about 86 of counties recorded the condition of cattle as good, and 82 reported the same for goats (Table 3). The availability of forage and water resources within shorter trekking distances was cited as a key factor driving this favorable situation. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, July 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Tana River Makueni, Narok Makueni, Narok, Garissa Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru Kilifi, Isiolo, Kwale, Mandera Isiolo, Kwale, Embu Kitui, Meru, West Kitui, Samburu Pokot, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Kajiado, Samburu, Baringo, Taita Taveta Turkana, Tharaka Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Nithi, Baringo Laikipia Marsabit, Wajir, Kajiado, Lamu, Embu, Laikipia, Turkana, Wajir Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Significant improvement in production levels was recorded in 70 of the ASAL counties, while the remaining 30 reported a stable trend (Table 4). The availability of adequate forage and water within shorter trekking distances, ongoing calving and kidding, along with improved livestock body conditions, were cited as factors contributing to this trend. The prevailing yield levels reported in July were above the Long-Term Average (LTA) in about 70 of the counties, and below the LTA in 30 of the ASAL regions. Table 4.0: Milk production, July 2024 Baringo, Isiolo Kitui Marsabit Baringo, Kwale Isiolo, Turkana, Wajir Kajiado Tana River Marsabit, Lamu Turkana Kilifi, Garissa Lamu Meru Kajiado Kwale, Makueni Narok, Laikipia Makueni, Laikipia Taita Taveta Tana River Kitui Meru, Mandera West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Samburu Narok, Nyeri Samburu Garissa, Nyeri Embu Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Embu Wajir, West Pokot Taita- Taveta, Kilifi 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Increased cases of abortions affecting goats and sheep were reported in Tiaty East sub county Mandera, Turkana and Samburu counties. Unconfirmed incidences of lumpy skin disease (LSD) were reported in Embu and Lolgorien and Keiyan wards in Narok. Suspected incidences of foot and mouth disease (FMD) were reported in Embu, Kitui, Gulanze and Ndavaya areas in Kinango subcounty, Kwale county, Laikipia East (Tigithi and Thingithu), Agro-Pastoral Zone of Lamu, and Ademasajida ward in Wajir. Outbreak of blue tongue disease in sheep was noted in Garissa, Fafi sub-counties, Laikipia West (Salama Ward) and Kajiado county. In addition, Samburu reported outbreak of Pest De Petit Ruminants (PPR) in small stock while suspected cases of sudden death syndrome (SDS) in camels was witnessed in Garissa with suspected cases of Q-fever being recorded across Kajiado. Suspected plant poisoning in Songot ward, Turkana had resulted to 48 cattle deaths being recorded. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties reported a stable trend in the price of cattle during the month under review (Table 5). The observed trend could be attributed to the good cattle body condition that was occasioned by pasture availability and reduced trekking distance to water sources. On the contrary, a negative trend was recorded in about 34 of the ASAL counties. Among the notable factors driving the negative trend included: reduced demand, reduced supply dictated by pastoralist asset holding tendencies, reduced external trader numbers, and restricted market access following the protests witnessed. Notably, the prevailing price in all the counties was above the corresponding usual price for the month as a result of the sustained good cattle body condition. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, July 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Tana Baringo, Garissa Mandera Isiolo, Kitui Mandera, Marsabit, River Tana River, Wajir Marsabit Samburu Samburu, Tana River, Embu, Laikipia Lamu Turkana, Turkana, Wajir Makueni, Narok Meru Kajiado Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi Nyeri, Taita Taveta Kilifi, Kwale Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta 1.3.6 Goat Prices During the review period, about 87 of the counties reported a stable trend in the price of goat with a negative trend being noted in Samburu, Kajiado and Kilifi (Table 6). Improved goat body condition was the major factor driving the observed stability while increased supply in the market as the seasons crop production performed poorly resulted to the negativity witnessed in the aforementioned areas. In addition, the prices reported in all counties were above the respective long-term average for the month of July and that was due to the sustained stable goat body condition throughout the month under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, July 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Baringo Garissa, Isiolo Samburu Mandera, Marsabit Tana River Mandera, Marsabit Kajiado Samburu, Tana River Wajir Turkana, Kitui Kilifi Turkana, Wajir, Embu Embu Kwale, Laikipia Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Lamu, Meru Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Tharaka- Narok, Nyeri Makueni, Meru, Narok Nithi Taita Taveta Nyeri, Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.4 Crop production Crop production that entails cultivation of food and horticultural crops is normally practiced in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a considerable age of households practice crop production mainly along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. During the month of July, agricultural activities taking place were as summarized in table 7. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production SEMA Kitui Maize was at maturity stage, and showed dismal performance, especially in the Marginal Mixed Farming Zone while it was fair in the Mixed Farming Zone. Makueni Most crops were at harvesting stage and in fair to poor condition due to moisture stress. Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county lost their crops due to water logging and in parts of Kibwezi West and Kibwezi East sub counties, crops had withered due to moisture stress. The projected crop production was about 60 of the long-term average. Meru Harvesting ended in July with the production expected to be below average due to early cessation of the rainfall, destruction of crops by floods, leaching that led to stunted growth of maize and yellowing of beans. Farmers opted to sell and store stunted maize stalks as fodder for livestock. Agro- Kajiado Majority of farmers harvested maize and beans yield at 31 and pastoral 14 above normal, respectively. Despite heavy rains causing flooding, the yields still surpassed the long-term average. Narok Currently, majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at harvesting stage (for green maize) and in fairly good condition West Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone are at harvesting stage Pokot with green maize being in fair to good condition, while those in Agro- Pastoral Zone were at tasselling stage but already stunted and wilted (poor condition). CMA Taita Maize crop was at harvesting stage, while harvesting of pulses was ongoing for crops that were planted late. Lamu The crops were at various stages of growth but mainly poding and tasselling. 1.4.1 Maize prices Stability in the price of maize was noted in majority of the counties (65 ) while the remaining areas (35 ) recorded an improving trend over the month under review (Table 8). Availability of maize from external markets and cross-border imports coupled with internal production were the major drivers of the observed trend. Reported maize price in July was lower than the long-term average in about 78 of the counties but above the usual price in Garissa, Wajir and Lamu due to high transportation cost since it is mainly sourced from external markets. Notably, availability of cereal substitutes, improved production since the previous season and continuous supply of the commodity from external sources were the major drivers that had sustained the price of maize below the usual range across majority of the counties. Table 8.0: Maize prices, July 2024 Above Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening LTA to LTA Garissa Mandera Baringo, Isiolo Baringo Garissa, Meru Wajir Wajir Marsabit Samburu, Tana River Isiolo Mandera, Taita- Lamu Turkana, Embu Marsabit Samburu Taveta Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Tana River Turkana, Lamu Kwale, Laikipia Embu Kajiado, Kitui Makueni, Meru Kilifi Kwale, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Narok Laikipia Makueni Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot West Pokot 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Increase in trekking distance to domestic water sources was reported in 52 of the counties with the distance remaining stable in about 35 t of the areas while Baringo, Kwale and West Pokot recorded an improving trend (Table 9). Breakdown of some water facilities and reduced water volumes in the open water sources were the drivers of the observed worsening trend with stability being promoted by existence of alternative sources in some areas. The longest distance of 8.6 and 6.7 kilometers was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. Notably, the prevailing trekking distance in majority of the areas was below the usual seasonal range and that was due to the impact of the two previous rainfall seasons whose performance was above average. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, July 2024 Garissa Turkana Baringo, Isiolo Baringo Isiolo, Mandera Garissa, Embu Tana River Makueni Mandera, Embu Kwale Tana River, Lamu Marsabit, Meru Wajir, Kitui Marsabit, Samburu West Pokot Turkana, Wajir Samburu, Nyeri Kwale Kajiado, Kilifi Makueni, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi Lamu, Nyeri Laikipia, Meru Kitui, Laikipia Taita Taveta Narok, West Pokot Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Trekking distance remained unchanged in roughly 30 of the areas but increased in about 52 of the areas with Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi recording an improving trend (Table 10). The worsening trend could be attributed to dwindling forage levels in sites adjacent to water sources that necessitated livestock to migrate to other areas in certain counties, insecurity, high disease prevalence in some zones and breakdown including dry up of some water facilities. Garissa and Kwale reported the longest distance of 13.7 and 5.7 kilometers among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively. Notably, the trekking distance reported during the month was within the usual range in majority of the counties (70 ) as a consequence of the sustained impact of the two consecutive above average rainfall seasons. Available water in these areas was anticipated to last for a period of 2-3 months. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, July 2024 Garissa Turkana Baringo, Isiolo Baringo Garissa, Kitui Isiolo, Wajir Kitui, Kwale Laikipia Mandera, Marsabit Samburu Mandera, Lamu Marsabit, Meru Lamu, Narok Samburu, Kajiado Tharaka- Tana River Turkana, Embu Nyeri Tana River, Wajir Nithi Kwale Kajiado Taita Taveta Embu, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Makueni Kilifi, Laikipia Kilifi, West Pokot Narok, Nyeri Makueni, Meru Taita Taveta 1.6 Terms of trade The terms of trade were stable in 48 of the counties while the remaining 52 of the counties reported an improving trend as a consequence of the stable goat price coupled with declining maize prices (Table 11). The lowest terms of trade of 41.6 and 87 were recorded in Turkana and Lamu among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that sequence. Additionally, the recorded terms of trade in all the counties were within the usual seasonal range. Consequently, household purchasing power was slightly elevated due to the favorable terms of trade that were majorly influenced by the better goat return value and enhanced production that promoted stability in maize price throughout the period under review. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, July 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Baringo, Nyeri Mandera Mandera, Marsabit Garissa, Isiolo Samburu Samburu, Tana River Marsabit, Wajir, Kwale Turkana, Wajir, Embu Narok Kajiado Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale Lamu Tana River Laikipia Laikipia, Makueni Embu, Kitui Lamu, Meru Meru, Narok, Nyeri Makueni Taita Taveta Taita Taveta, West Pokot West Pokot Turkana Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kilifi 1.7. Health and nutrition Stable nutrition situation was reported in majority of the counties with about 39 of the areas reporting an improving trend over the month under review (Table 12). Improved milk consumption, low morbidity rates, improved food consumption occasioned by favorable terms of trade and fair casual labour wage rates and better hygiene practices were some of the factors driving the positive nutrition outcomes. The reported malnutrition rates remained within the normal ranges in approximately 83 of the counties with only Turkana, Lamu, Garissa and Baringo reporting rates that were above the long-term average. Among the major factors that were sustaining the below average terms of trade included consumption of diverse diets as a result of the enhanced crop and livestock production over the two seasons. On the contrary, the above average rates in the aforementioned counties were influenced by limited access to nutrition commodities following the scale down of health outreaches, constraints on child care behavior, poor infant and young child feeding practices. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2024 Baringo Marsabit Isiolo, Taita Taveta Turkana, Baringo, Garissa Garissa Kitui Mandera, Kajiado Embu Isiolo, Mandera Turkana Makueni Samburu, Laikipia Kilifi, Kitui Marsabit, Wajir Lamu West- Tana River, Kilifi Kwale, Samburu, Lamu Pokot Wajir, Tharaka Nithi Meru Kajiado, Makueni Embu, Kwale, Meru Narok Taita Taveta Narok, Nyeri Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tana River 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the environmental and socio-economic early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 22 ASAL counties were classified as being in the Normal phase while one(1) in Alert Phase of drought. However, an improving trend was observed in Isiolo County, while a worsening trend was reported in seven counties: Marsabit, Kitui, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Turkana, and Garissa. Notably, Kilifi County was recorded in the Alert phase, with a deteriorating trend, as illustrated in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, July 2024 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Lamu, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Kwale, Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana Samburu Alert Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th July 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 30th at 28th (3-month) June July 50 Vegetation greenness above 2024 2024 normal 35 - Normal vegetation 50 greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 79.38 82.6 The county recorded above normal vegetation Central 86.69 90.34 North 80.75 87.43 South 78.39 83.73 Ravine 81.19 77.84 Mogotio 71.09 77.64 Tiaty 80.05 81.58 MANDERA County 101.79 111.03 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of June at above normal vegetation Lafey 108.09 118.65 greenness. North 102.29 113.89 Banissa 81.9 91.64 West 110.15 117.97 South 100.13 105.89 East 102.63 116.45 TURKANA County 90.51 72.92 The county recorded above normal vegetation East 77.37 73.07 South 89.33 80.58 Loima 103.27 84.04 Central 97.02 91.63 West 92.83 65.82 North 88.33 63.93 MARSABI County 94.74 92.67 The county recorded above normal vegetation T greenness in July which was stable when compared Laisamis 98.25 102.17 Moyale 91.88 90.67 North Horr 93.55 86.95 Saku 93.82 108.98 WAJIR County 85.88 84.32 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in July, as compared to the previous Tarbaj 85.92 83.5 month of June. North 117.29 127.07 South 76.06 67.16 West 60.99 63.07 Eldas 91.83 100.9 East 97.91 87.51 SAMBURU County 99.56 95.72 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under East 98.13 91.9 review. North 105.04 101.18 West 86.23 92.33 GARISSA County 86.12 75.56 Balambala 101.38 97.68 Township 81.31 72.07 Ijara 81.25 68.62 The county remained the same in vegetation Fafi 77.71 63.57 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness Lagdera 95.51 89.68 Dadaab 92.56 83.62 ISIOLO County 82.7 77.02 The county recorded stability in above vegetation North 81.45 77.07 to last month. South 84.6 76.94 TANA County 73.33 66.67 The county recorded above normal vegetation RIVER greenness in the month of July. Bura 84.1 85.2 Galole 64.44 56.14 Garsen 69.75 57.52 KAJIADO County 88.29 88.34 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in Central 88.54 81.9 East 94.13 92.59 North 84.08 81.15 South 83.89 77.53 West 89.3 99.09 LAIKIPIA County 91.81 92.42 The county recorded stability in vegetation East 92.53 87.81 during the month under review. North 96.67 95.18 West 82.36 89.49 THARAKA County 78.68 81.31 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. NITHI Chuka 90.32 90.59 Maara 83.99 84.27 Tharaka 72.59 76.86 WEST County 71.38 73.47 POKOT Kacheliba 65.14 67.41 Kapenguria 71.52 77.93 The county recorded stability in vegetation Pokot south 85.77 87.34 greenness in normal vegetation greenness during Sigor 74.11 72.55 EMBU County 90.21 92.36 The county recorded above normal vegetation Manyatta 84.86 84.33 Mbeere north 93.67 97.25 Mbeere south 89.62 92.4 Runyenjes 90.66 90.3 County 85.48 87.82 KITUI Kitui central 97.94 108.56 Kitui east 91.86 93.31 Kitui rural 98.36 116.67 Kitui south 76.54 71.81 The county recorded a stability in vegetation Kitui west 96.25 113.33 Mwingi 93.55 101.01 Mwingi north 85.2 92.19 Mwingi west 101.35 113.98 County 90.74 95.56 MAKUENI Kaiti 97.01 98.49 Kibwezi east 74.2 70.53 The county recorded above normal vegetation Kibwezi west 92.13 95.52 Kilome 92.61 94.01 Makueni 102.96 117.83 Mbooni 103.2 119.42 MERU County 86.36 85.64 Buuri 89.04 90.84 Central 81.3 83.57 Imenti Igembe 89.29 85.91 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub-counties during the month Igembe north 89.11 81.31 of July. Igembe south 87.55 84.24 North Imenti 77.87 82.72 South Imenti 83.04 84.28 Tigania east 83.51 85.12 Tigania west 83.14 87.11 County 83.42 86.76 The county recorded above normal vegetation NYERI Kieni 84.97 87.43 Mathira 85.47 89.44 Mukurweini 88.2 90.19 Nyeri town 84.18 84.73 Othaya 76.95 83.82 Tetu 76.31 82.03 County 55.57 41.22 KILIFI Ganze 51.79 35.4 Kaloleni 60.43 42.62 Kilifi north 65.96 54.1 Kilifi south 60.94 50.71 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of July. Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini Magarini 53.91 40.33 recorded normal vegetation greenness Malindi 65.86 50.62 Rabai 69.42 55.98 KWALE County 64.52 47.11 Kinango 61.36 42.11 The vegetation condition index recorded was normal vegetation greenness in June which was Lunga Lunga 67.37 48.22 Matuga 72.94 62.23 stable when compared to last month. Kinango and Lungalunga recorded normal vegetation greenness Msambweni 66.78 62.59 County 92.09 80.33 LAMU Lamu east 92.84 85.43 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal 91.65 77.38 vegetation greenness condition during the month of Lamu west July. County 75.95 68.97 TAITA TAVETA Mwatate 82.48 74.24 Taveta 84.76 76.97 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July. Voi 69.26 62.23 Wundanyi 88.78 90.57 County 83.59 82.54 Emurua 78.74 82.29 The County recorded above normal vegetation NAROK Dikirr greenness in the month of July which was stable when compared to the last month of June. Kilgoris 73.37 67.13 Narok east 81.84 84.45 Narok north 77.26 76.64 Narok south 85.19 87.99 Narok west 91.11 87.08",
            "August_2024.pdf": "AUGUST 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season and just ended JJAS light seasonal rains in Pastoral North West counties. Normal drought phase is expected to continue. Moreover, the situation is projected to improve in coming months as we near onset of short rains, OND season. Monitoring of the population flagged out in February food security assessment, Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, number of people in need of Figure 1. August 2024 Drought Phase assistance stands at 1.0. million. Acute malnutrition has also improved been noted across the counties with the number of children 6 to 59 months requiring treatment for acute malnutrition having reduced from 847,932 (February 2024) to 760,488 reported in July 2024. In addition, the number of pregnant and breastfeeding women requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has reduced from 123,567 (February 2024) to 112,401 reported in July 2024.Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of August 2024. 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 August 2024 Rainfall Performance August 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received low rainfall amounts. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received between 2 50 mm of rainfall. Pastoral North West counties including; Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu continued to receive good amounts of rainfall ranging between 51mm 200mm. This is attributed to the JJA rainfall season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received trace amounts of rainfall ranging between 2mm 20mm. Agro Pastoral Figure 2. August 2024 Rainfall Performance cluster including; Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received trace rainfall ranging between 11- 50mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 September 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of September 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties include; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; are forecasted to remain mainly sunny and dry conditions. Pastoral North West especially; Parts of Turkana and West Pokot counties are forecasted to receive near to above rainfall Figure 3. August 2024 Rainfall forecast amounts. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2024 with that of the previous month of July 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of August remained the same when compared to that of the month of July. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties were stable at normal vegetation greenness index. July 2024 August 2024 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of July and August 2024 The month of August 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous July 2024. Stability in vegetation is due to the cumulative impacts of good MAM 2024 long rains season and moderate JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties including Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Two counties (3); Kilifi and Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in August 2024 indicates a stability when compared to previous month, July 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of August 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) Moderate (0) (1)Kilifi (Ganze) Normal (2) (8) vegetation Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (Kaloleni, North, South, Malindi, Rabai Magarini), greenness Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Above (21) (104) normal Embu, Garissa, Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Vegetation Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Runyenjes), Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), greenness Laikipia, Lamu, Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Makueni, Mandera, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga, Matuga, Marsabit, Meru, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Nyeri, Samburu, Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Taita Taveta, Tana Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe River, Tharaka Nithi, Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, Wajir, Narok, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Turkana and West Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Pokot, Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha Baringo (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review. About 48 and 52 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse accordingly as being good (Table 2). Receipt of off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the March to May rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, August 2024 Pasture Browse Embu, Kajiado Laikipia, Lamu Embu, Kajiado Laikipia, Lamu Kitui, Makueni Narok, Nyeri, Meru Kilifi, Kitui Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir, Baringo Makueni Wajir, West Pokot Turkana West Pokot, Isiolo Taita Taveta Baringo, Isiolo Garissa, Kwale Marsabit, Samburu Turkana Kwale, Marsabit Mandera Garissa, Mandera Meru, Samburu Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Majority of the areas reported the body condition for both cattle and goats as being good to fair. Consequently, roughly 57 and 65 percent of the counties reported the body condition of cattle and goats respectively to be good to very good (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources as a consequence of the good recharge of the open water structures over the previous season. Comparatively, the observed livestock body throughout the month of August was normal to above normal to the one normally witnessed during the period. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, August 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Taita Taveta Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, Narok Lamu, Nyeri Kitui, Laikipia Nyeri, Garissa Taita Taveta Garissa, Mandera Makueni, Narok Kwale, Mandera Turkana, Wajir Tana River Turkana, Wajir Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Isiolo Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit, Meru Kwale, Marsabit Samburu Meru, Samburu 1.3.3 Milk production Stabilization in milk production attributable to improved yields from all species more so the small stock due to high birth rates was recorded in 61 percent of the counties (Table 4). Among other factors influencing the observed stable to improving trend included; minimal disease incidents, good body condition advanced by forage availability, limited migration and fairly better tropical livestock units. The production level over the reporting month was above the usual seasonal range. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2024 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Kitui, Kwale Baringo Garissa, Isiolo Samburu Garissa Makueni, Turkana, Mandera, Lamu Wajir, Embu Isiolo, Mandera Meru Kwale Marsabit, Nyeri Kajiado Marsabit, Narok, Taita- West Pokot Tana River Kilifi, Meru Turkana, Wajir Taveta Kitui, Laikipia Makueni Embu, Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Narok Laikipia, Nyeri West Pokot Tharaka- Samburu Nithi Tana River 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Cases of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) were reported across Kitui and Kajiado counties with Trypanosomiasis being recorded in Mutha and Kaziku wards in Kitui South Sub county. Increased incidences of endo and ecto parasites were reported in congested water points in Garissa while suspected cases of sudden death syndrome (SDS) in camels and Peste des Petits ruminants (PPR) in goats was reported in Fafi and Dadaab sub counties. In Marsabit, an estimated 2,865 goats presented PPR symptoms while 572 deaths have been reported with a 20 percent case fatality rate (CFR). In addition, about 1,021 sheep had clinical symptoms while 184 died with 18 percent case fatality rate. Increasing incidences of respiratory and septicemic diseases in camels have also been reported affecting about 1,618 out of which 185 have died. Samburu county reported increased cases of abortions in small stock. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Stability in the market price of cattle was noted over most areas during the reporting period (Table 5). Cattle body condition remained fair to good due to availability of pasture and water within shorter trekking distances hence the observed trend in market price. Counties reporting a negative trend in market price cited reduced demand as a result of the high and unattractive price for the usual buyers, market disruptions occasioned by disease and conflicts, and market surplus some driven by distress sales due to poor harvests as the drivers of the observed situation. Overall, the sustained good body condition during the month under review had resulted to prevailing price being comparably better to the one reported for a similar period over the past three years. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Baringo, Mandera Garissa Isiolo Mandera, Marsabit Marsabit, Samburu Kilifi Turkana Samburu, Tana River Tana River, Wajir Lamu Kajiado Turkana, Wajir, Embu Embu, Kitui, Meru Tharaka Kwale Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Nyeri, Narok, Nithi Laikipia Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Taita Taveta Makueni Makueni, Meru, Narok West Pokot Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Throughout the month under review, a stable trend in the price of goat at the market was recorded in all areas except in Kilifi and Wajir (Table 6). The noted positive trend could be attributed to a good goat body condition occasioned by availability of quality palatable browse in most areas while the negative trend in the aforementioned counties was due to low demand coupled with high supply in the market and increasing trekking distance to water sources in some areas that had impacted on the health of the species. Notably, the reported price was higher than the corresponding three-year average in all the counties and that was down to the sustained good body condition over the period driven by above average rangeland conditions across most areas following the above normal consecutive rainfall seasons. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Embu Baringo, Garissa Wajir Mandera, Marsabit, Embu Meru Isiolo, Mandera Kilifi Samburu, Tana River, Lamu Tharaka- Marsabit, Samburu Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Nithi Tana River, Kitui Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Turkana, Kajiado Laikipia, Makueni, Narok Kwale, Laikipia Nyeri, Taita Taveta Lamu, Makueni Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Narok, Taita Taveta Nyeri, West Pokot 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties during the month of August. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production SEMA Makueni Harvesting was still on-going in parts of the county with the yield expected to be roughly 60 percent of the long-term average. Meru Cereals production is expected to be below average due to the early cessation of the March to May rainfall at the critical stage of pod and grain filling. In addition, crops were destroyed through leaching that resulted to stunted growth of maize and yellowing of beans. Agro- Kajiado Farmers were harvesting pigeon peas with the yields being above pastoral normal due to the good performance of the rainfall season. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were at harvesting stage and in fairly good condition. Laikipia Maize harvesting was ongoing across most areas and households were already consuming the green maize. There was invasion of migratory Quelea quelea birds in Laikipia West Sub-County that destroyed wheat and maize at the milking stage. Approximately 500 acres of wheat and 150 acres of maize had been affected. Meanwhile, the department of agriculture was managing the situation through ground spraying by use of motorist sprayers. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable in all the areas over the period under analysis (Table 8). Price stabilization could be ascribed to availability of the commodity in the market from internal sources (own farm production) plus supplementation by external supplies (with large stocks being held by traders and millers) from high agricultural potential areas whose market prices were not experiencing any volatility. Equally, the prevailing price was above the respective long-term average in about 78 percent of the counties attributable to above average production over the past two seasons, increased cross-border imports acquired at fairly low prices coupled with availability of other cereals like sorghum and rice that households supplemented their diets with hence low demand on maize. However, elevated prices above the historical three-year averages and basically deviating from typical price patterns was noted in about 22 percent of the ASAL areas with high transportation cost, local demand dynamics and potentially constrained local supply being the major drivers of the witnessed scenario. Table 8.0: Maize prices, August 2024 Above Atclose Below LTA Impro- Stable Worse- LTA to LTA ving ning Garissa Baringo, Isiolo, Baringo, Wajir, Lamu Mandera Embu Garissa, Isiolo, Meru Marsabit Samburu, Tana Mandera, Kitui, Embu Wajir River Samburu, Kwale Lamu Turkana, Kajiado Tana River, Kilifi Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Turkana, Kajiado Laikipia, Makueni Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta Taita Taveta, Marsabit Narok, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Narok Nyeri, Tharaka West Pokot, Nyeri Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households During the period under review, majority of the counties constituting about 78 percent reported unchanged trekking distances to water sources in relation to the previous period with Samburu recording a significant decline (Table 9). Increase in trekking distance noted in about four counties could be attributed to continued depletion of surface water sources as a result of the high land surface temperatures. The longest distance of approximately nine(9) and 6.9 kilometres was recorded in Mandera and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively. Recorded distance in a significant proportion of the ASAL counties was below the respective five-year averages and that was as a consequence of the enhanced rainfall over the previous long and short rain seasons that promoted remarkable recharge. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, August 2024 Garissa Turkana Baringo, Isiolo Samburu Baringo, Garissa Tana River Tana River Wajir Mandera, Embu Isiolo, Mandera Embu Kwale Kitui Marsabit, Kajiado Marsabit, Turkana Kajiado Lamu Makueni Samburu, Kilifi Wajir, Kilifi, Nyeri Lamu Taita Taveta Nyeri Laikipia, Meru Kitui, Kwale, Narok West- Narok, Laikipia, Makueni Pokot Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta, Meru Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Stabilization in trekking distance from grazing zones to water points was noted in about 60 percent of the counties while the remaining recorded an increase (Table 10). The worsening trend observed in the later counties could be attributed to reduced number of surface water sources due to drying up, insufficient water infrastructure in some sites hence inadequate water was impounded and decrease in alternative water sources. Notably the longest distance of 15.9 and 8.1 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. In addition, the prevailing distance was within the normal distance for the period in about 78 percent of the areas and that could be ascribed to availability of forage within sites in close proximity to water sources following the notable regeneration witnessed over the previous rainfall seasons. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, August 2024 Garissa Lamu Baringo, Isiolo Samburu Baringo, Mandera Garissa Kitui Makueni Mandera, Marsabit Turkana Marsabit, Wajir Isiolo, Embu Kwale Narok Samburu, Turkana Tana River, Kilifi Kajiado Nyeri Tana River, Wajir Laikipia, Meru Kitui Taita Taveta Embu, Kajiado, Narok Kwale, Lamu Kilifi, Laikipia, Nyeri Makueni Meru, Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot West Pokot Tharaka Nithi 1.6 Terms of trade Unchanged terms of trade were recorded in majority of the counties with respect to the previous month while improvements were noted in Samburu, Tana River, Embu and Meru as a consequence of the drop in maize prices reported (Table 11). Stable goat and maize prices in most of the ASAL counties contributed to a greater extent towards the stability observed in the terms of trade across August. Turkana and Lamu counties reported the lowest terms of trade of 43 and 84 among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that order. Notably, the prevailing terms of trade over the month under review were within the seasonal range in all counties driven by the enhanced maize stocks in the market and good body condition for goat that resulted to reduced prices for the commodity and better market returns for goat above the historical averages. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, August 2024 Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving S table Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Samburu Samburu Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir Tana River Isiolo, Mandera Marsabit, West Pokot Embu Marsabit, Turkana Tana River, Turkana, Lamu Meru Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Embu, Kajiado, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia Makueni, Kajiado Makueni, Meru, Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta Nyeri, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, Wajir Tharaka Nithi, Lamu West Pokot, Narok 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation remained stable in majority (57 percent) of the counties across the period under analysis while about 21 percent of the counties reported a worsening trend (Table 12). Among the factors contributing to the stable with a tendency to improve in the nutrition situation in about 22 percent of the areas included: milk availability hence improved consumption levels and consumption of diverse diets driven by improved agricultural production and slightly elevated purchasing power that promoted access via the markets. The rise in malnutrition in the mapped counties could be linked to households selling their harvests to cover other costs often at the expense of maintaining healthy eating and chronic challenges associated with stunting and scale down of supplies to facilities in the management of malnutrition. Save for Baringo, Lamu, Makueni, Turkana and Garissa whose reported malnutrition rates were outside the seasonal range attributable to closure of some health outreach sites, high prevalence of morbidities that affect nutrient absorption, poor health environments and child feeding practices, the rates in all the other counties were within their usual ranges. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2024 Baringo Samburu Isiolo, Mandera Tana River Baringo, Garissa Samburu Garissa Kitui Marsabit, Laikipia Wajir Mandera, Marsabit Meru Turkana West- Tana River, Wajir Embu Turkana, Kajiado Tharaka- Lamu Pokot Embu, Kajiado Laikipia Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Nithi Makueni Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Narok Lamu, Makueni West Pokot Narok, Taita Taveta Nyeri, Taita Taveta Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Isiolo 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties except Garissa and Kilifi were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable to worsening trend as shown in table 13. - Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, August 2024 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Marsabit, Tana River Wajir, Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Lamu, Kitui, Kwale Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Tharaka Nithi Taveta, West Pokot Alert Garissa, Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th August 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 28th at 25th (3-month) July August 50 Vegetation greenness above 2024 2024 normal 35 - Normal vegetation 50 greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 82.6 88.9 The county recorded above normal vegetation Central 90.34 85.78 North 87.43 86.89 South 83.73 87.22 Ravine 77.84 69.36 Mogotio 77.64 85.24 Tiaty 81.58 85.4 MANDERA County 111.03 119.68 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of June at above normal vegetation Lafey 118.65 125.72 greenness. North 113.89 117 Banissa 91.64 96.04 West 117.97 122.21 South 105.89 115.24 East 116.45 117.35 TURKANA County 72.92 The county recorded above normal vegetation East 73.07 73.12 South 80.58 82.06 Loima 84.04 82.16 Central 91.63 99.72 West 65.82 70.28 North 63.93 65.45 MARSABI County 92.67 101.58 The county recorded above normal vegetation T greenness in August which was stable when Laisamis 102.17 101.36 compared to previous month of July. Moyale 90.67 88.72 North Horr 86.95 92.58 Saku 108.98 112.66 WAJIR County 84.32 100.42 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in August, as compared to the previous Tarbaj 83.5 94.84 month of July. North 127.07 127.22 South 67.16 75.15 West 63.07 77.03 Eldas 100.9 106 East 87.51 91.44 SAMBURU County 95.72 95.69 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under East 91.9 96.16 review. North 101.18 93.62 West 92.33 89.45 GARISSA County 75.56 76.3 The county remained the same in vegetation Balambala 97.68 99.29 during the month of August. Township 72.07 76.48 Ijara 68.62 57.8 Fafi 63.57 60.43 Lagdera 89.68 98.08 Dadaab 83.62 80.21 ISIOLO County 77.02 107.99 The county recorded stability in above vegetation North 77.07 compared to last month. 90.52 South 76.94 88.75 TANA County 66.67 80.6 The county recorded above normal vegetation RIVER greenness in the month of August. Bura 85.2 90.19 Galole 56.14 63.04 Garsen 57.52 62.05 KAJIADO County 88.34 114.07 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in Central 81.9 88.92 the month of August. East 92.59 102.43 North 81.15 88.03 South 77.53 84.83 West 99.09 115.09 LAIKIPIA County 92.42 103.11 The county recorded stability in vegetation East 87.81 during the month under review. North 95.18 98.81 West 89.49 92.54 THARAKA County 81.31 100.8 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. NITHI Chuka 90.59 99.96 Maara 84.27 90.55 Tharaka 76.86 85.61 WEST County 73.47 79.32 The county recorded stability in vegetation POKOT greenness in normal vegetation greenness during Kacheliba 67.41 72.66 the month of August Kapenguria 77.93 79.59 Pokot south 87.34 81.63 Sigor 72.55 72.56 EMBU County 92.36 116.12 The county recorded above normal vegetation Manyatta 84.33 89.34 Mbeere north 97.25 110.87 Mbeere south 92.4 104.39 Runyenjes 90.3 96.5 County 87.82 103.34 KITUI Kitui central 108.56 121.29 Kitui east 93.31 98.83 Kitui rural 116.67 134.98 Kitui south 71.81 79.06 The county recorded a stability in vegetation Kitui west 113.33 127.86 during the month of August. Mwingi 101.01 central 103.66 Mwingi north 92.19 97.36 Mwingi west 113.98 126.43 MAKUENI County 95.56 119 Kaiti 98.49 115.35 Kibwezi east 70.53 77.16 Kibwezi west 95.52 103.04 The county recorded above normal vegetation Kilome 94.01 113.55 compared to previous month of July. Makueni 117.83 131.77 Mbooni 119.42 137.64 County 85.64 95.22 Buuri 90.84 91.94 Central 83.57 Imenti 82.48 Igembe 85.91 The county recorded above normal vegetation central 92.3 greenness across the sub-counties during the month Igembe north 81.31 89.81 of August. Igembe south 84.24 85.59 North Imenti 82.72 77.67 South Imenti 84.28 86.76 Tigania east 85.12 92.47 Tigania west 87.11 97.05 County 86.76 88.94 The county recorded above normal vegetation NYERI Kieni 87.43 92.69 Mathira 89.44 88.99 Mukurweini 90.19 91.69 Nyeri town 84.73 84.18 Othaya 83.82 83.39 Tetu 82.03 85.55 KILIFI County 41.22 41.01 Ganze 35.4 31.21 Kaloleni 42.62 36.6 Kilifi north 54.1 47.18 Kilifi south 50.71 44.87 Magarini 40.33 40.15 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in the month of August. Ganze, worsened to Malindi 50.62 47.42 moderate vegetation deficit while the remaining sub Rabai 55.98 49.38 counties recorded normal vegetation greenness KWALE County 47.11 40.4 Kinango 42.11 The vegetation condition index recorded was 37.84 normal vegetation greenness in August which was Lunga Lunga 48.22 37.67 stable when compared to last month. Kinango and Matuga 62.23 53.33 Lungalunga recorded normal vegetation greenness Msambweni 62.59 58.01 County 80.33 68.5 LAMU Lamu east 85.43 The county and all its sub counties recorded 79.39 stability in vegetation condition at above normal 77.38 vegetation greenness condition during the month of Lamu west 70.88 August. County 68.97 87.02 TAITA TAVETA Mwatate 74.24 76.56 Taveta 76.97 85.15 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Voi 62.23 70.75 Wundanyi 90.57 96.58 County 82.54 94.6 Emurua 82.29 The County recorded above normal vegetation NAROK Dikirr greenness in the month of August which was stable 81.59 when compared to the last month of July. Kilgoris 67.13 68.05 Narok east 84.45 90.38 Narok north 76.64 78.72 Narok south 87.99 101.97 Narok west 87.08 89.97",
            "September_2024.pdf": "SEPTEMBER 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season and just ended JJAS light seasonal rains in Pastoral North West counties. Two (2) counties were categorized in alert drought phase. However, the situation is on worsening trend in most of the ASAL counties due to delayed onset of OND season. Monitoring of the population flagged out in July food security assessment, Long Rains Assessment (LRA) 2024, number of people in need of assistance stands at one million. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 479,498 children aged 6 to 59 months and 110,169 pregnant and Figure 1. September 2024 Drought Phase breastfeeding mothers currently malnourished acutely a nd in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of September 2024. 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 September 2024 Rainfall Performance Figure 2 presents the rainfall performance for September 2024. During this month, rainfall patterns varied across the ASAL counties: Pastoral North East counties like Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, and Garissa experienced minimal rainfall, receiving between 2 to 50 mm. In contrast, Pastoral North West counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, and Samburu observed significant rainfall ranging from 51 to 200 mm, attributed to the JJA season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties (Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, and Kitui) registered very low rainfall, between 2 and 20 mm. Agro-Pastoral areas (Kajiado, Figure 2. September 2024 Rainfall Performance Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri, and West Pokot) received moderate rainfall, ranging between 11 to 50 mm. The Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties (Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, and Lamu) also saw low rainfall amounts between 11 to 50 1.1.2 October 2024 rainfall outlook Figure 3 shows the forecast for October 2024. The outlook suggests that: The Pastoral North East region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, and Garissa) and the South East Marginal Agriculture zone (Kitui, Makueni, Embu will likely experience sunny and dry conditions. Agro-Pastoral zones such as Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, and Laikipia are forecasted to remain predominantly dry. Similarly, the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale) are also expected to experience mostly sunny and dry conditions. However, parts of Pastoral North West counties, especially Turkana and West Pokot, may Figure 3. October 2024 Rainfall forecast receive near to above-average rainfall. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in September 2024 with that of the previous month of August 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of September remained the same at above normal vegetation greenness when compared to that of the month of August. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties were stable at normal vegetation greenness index. August 2024 September 2024 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of August and September 2024 The month of September 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of August. Stability in vegetation is due to the cumulative impacts of good MAM 2024 long rains season and moderate JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties including Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Two counties (2); Kilifi and Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of September 2024 is provided in figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation Moderate (0) (1) vegetation Kilifi (Ganze) Normal (2) (9) vegetation Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (North, South, Malindi, Rabai, Kaloleni, Magarini), greenness Kwale (Matuga, Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Above (21) (103) normal Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Vegetation Kajiado, Kitui, Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, greenness Laikipia, Lamu, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Makueni, Mandera, Mwingi West), Kwale (Lunga, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Tana River, Tharaka Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, Nithi, Wajir, Narok, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri Turkana and West (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Pokot, Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha Baringo (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review with deteriorations noted across. About 48 and 52 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse accordingly as being good (Table 2). Receipt of off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the March to May rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, September 2024 Pasture Browse Embu, Kajiado Lamu, Narok, Embu, Kajiado Laikipia, Lamu Kitui, Makueni Nyeri, Meru, Kilifi, Kitui Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir, Baringo Makueni Wajir, West Pokot Turkana West Pokot, Isiolo Taita Taveta Baringo, Isiolo Garissa, Kwale Marsabit, Samburu Turkana Kwale, Marsabit Mandera Garissa, Mandera Meru, Samburu Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Laikipia 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained stable ranging from fair to good. (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources as a consequence of the good recharge of the open water structures over the previous season. However, the delayed onset of OND in most of the counties pose a threat to the body condition of all livestock species. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, September 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Laikipia Embu, Kajiado Kilifi, Taita Taveta Kilifi, Lamu Makueni, Narok Lamu, Nyeri Kitui, Laikipia Nyeri, Garissa Taita Taveta Garissa, Mandera Makueni, Narok Kwale, Mandera Turkana, Wajir Tana River Turkana, Wajir Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Isiolo Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit, Meru Kwale, Marsabit Samburu Meru, Samburu 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production remained stable however on a worsening trend (Table 4). Among other factors influencing the observed trend is deteriorating pasture and browse condition in select areas within different counties. The production level over the reporting month was at par with the usual production level but on a worsening trend in most of the counties in relation to August. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2024 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Kitui, Kwale Isiolo, Kwale Samburu Isiolo, Mandera Makueni, Meru Mandera, Wajir, Embu Turkana, Wajir Narok, Taita- Lamu, Nyeri Kajiado Embu, Kajiado Taveta Tana River Kilifi, Meru Laikipia, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kitui, Makueni West Pokot Laikipia Narok Samburu Taita Taveta, Tharaka- Tana River Baringo Nithi, Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu Turkana, Marsabit Garissa, Marsabit West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Confirmed cases of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in cattle were reported in Katilu and Kerio wards in Turkana while Tsetse fly infestation was witnessed in the cross-border areas of Loima and Turkana West. Various diseases including clostridial infections like Enterotoxaemia in sheep, abortions were reported in Kajiado. Suspected Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in Kajiado, Kwale (Gulanze and Ndavaya in Kinango, Kitui (Mutha and Kaziku wards), Laikipia (Tigithi, Salama, Thingithu). In addition, confirmed cases of Blue Tongue were reported in Githiga and Olmoran wards in Laikipia West Sub County. Outbreak of pestes des petit ruminants (PPR) in sheep and goats was reported in Laikipia (Olmoran) and across parts of West Pokot such as Chepareria, Masol, Lomut, Kiwawa. About 2,646 sheep and goats were vaccinated against the disease in West Pokot. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties continued reporting stable cattle prices across the period under review, however, a deteriorating trend was noted in Garissa, Wajir, Embu and Makueni (Table 5). The noted trend was as a consequence of the body condition of the cattle remaining fairly similar to the previous month driven by availability of pasture and water in some areas within the respective ASAL counties. Among the factors driving the price negativity in the aforementioned counties included market disruptions and surplus from last mile markets. Notably, the reported price in all the counties was above the long-term average as a result of the sustained FAIR to GOOD body condition of the cattle. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Baringo Isiolo Garissa Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Turkana Kajiado Wajir Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia Kilifi Embu Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni Narok Kitui Makueni Meru, Narok, Nyeri Nyeri Kwale Marsabit Taita Taveta, Embu Taita Taveta Lamu Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Meru Marsabit, Samburu West Pokot Mandera Tana River, Mandera Samburu Tana- River 1.3.6 Goat Prices The price of goat remained fairly stable in majority of the counties throughout the month of September with price decline being noted in about 30 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 6). Stability in goat price could be ascribed to a good to fair goat body condition occasioned by availability of browse albeit in select areas within the different counties while low demand at the market was cited as the major driver of the observed price negativity in some counties. As a consequence of the rangeland conditions remaining relatively good following the previous two good rainfall seasons, the sustained good body condition of the goat resulted to all counties reporting a price that was above the respective long-term average for the period under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, September 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Baringo, Isiolo Garissa Turkana, Wajir, Embu Turkana, Wajir Embu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kajiado, Kilifi Kwale Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Kitui, Nyeri Lamu Makueni, Meru, Narok Laikipia, Mandera Meru Nyeri, Taita Taveta Makueni, Samburu Tharaka- Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Narok, Marsabit Nithi Marsabit, Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River, Mandera Tana River 1.4 Crop production Among the clusters where agricultural activities that entail food and horticultural crops production include the Agropastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. The summary table below depicts the crop situation across the ASAL counties during the month of September. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production CMA Kilifi Farmers in the marginal mixed farming zone of Magarini Sub- county recorded some water melons, cassava and amaranths harvest. Taita Most farmers were undertaking land preparations and a few were Taveta doing dry planting. Others were harvesting the dried-up maize and maize stovers. In the mixed farming and irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone, farmers were planting maize, beans and kales. SEMA Kitui Minimal farming activities were witnessed with farmers having already harvested and waiting for the short rains season preparations for cultivation of various crops. The long rains harvests were dismal, owing to erratic rains that led to moisture stress on crops at grain filling stage, while those who planted their maize late realized total crop failure. Agropastoral Laikipia Some farmers had already planted potatoes, taking advantage of the favourable conditions in anticipation of the rains. In Laikipia West and parts of Laikipia North Sub Counties, farmers were harvesting maize that was still in the farms. The projected yield is expected to be above average due to improved farming practices and favourable weather condition. Narok Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zone were at harvesting stage with some farmers preparing land for the short rains season. West Crops that survived water stress in the pastoral Livelihood zone Pokot were at harvesting stage (for green grams, sorghum and maize). In addition to rain-fed cropping, the main crops grown under irrigated farming were onions, tomatoes, cabbages and kales in parts of Pokot South and Pokot West Sub Counties. The crops were in various stages of growth and in good condition. 1.4.1 Maize prices Stability in maize prices was evident over all the counties during the period under review (Table 8). Among the factors driving the observed price stabilization included availability of the commodity in the market following the harvesting that was taking place coupled with external supplies and cross-border imports that were relatively cheaper. Notably, the recorded price in about 70 percent of the counties was below the respective long-term average while above the three-year average in Mandera, Wajir and Garissa attributable to over-reliance on external supplies and high transportation costs. On the other hand, below average prices in majority of the areas was as a result of reduced demand for maize occasioned by availability of cereal substitutes. Table 8.0: Maize prices, September 2024 Above Atclose Below LTA Impro- Stable Worse- LTA to LTA ving ning Garissa Turkana Baringo, Isiolo, Embu Lamu Baringo, Garissa Wajir Kilifi Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale West- Isiolo, Turkana Mandera Lamu Laikipia, Makueni Pokot Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Marsabit Meru, Narok, Nyeri Marsabit Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Taita Taveta Laikipia, Makueni Tharaka Nithi Meru, Narok, Nyeri West Pokot Taita Taveta, Tana River Samburu, Mandera Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Increase in trekking distance to water sources was noted in about 70 percent of the counties over the month under analysis with unchanged distances in relation to the previous month being reported in Embu, Mandera and Tana River (Table 9). Continued depletion of surface water sources as a result of the high land surface temperatures was the major factor driving the observed trend in majority of the areas. The longest distance of roughly 10 and 7.3 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties accordingly. Reported distance in about 35 percent of the ASAL counties was above the corresponding long-term average and that was as a consequence of the drying up of some water sources and increased break-downs witnessed across the period under review. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, September 2024 Garissa Turkana Baringo, Isiolo Kwale Embu Baringo, Garissa Wajir Narok Embu, Kajiado Meru Mandera Isiolo, Turkana Kitui West- Kilifi, Laikipia Nyeri Tana- Wajir, Kajiado, Lamu Kwale Pokot Meru, Nyeri West Pokot River Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia Lamu Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Makueni, Narok Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Samburu Tharaka Nithi Tana River Marsabit, Samburu 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Approximately 61 percent of the counties reported increasing distance to water points from grazing areas while unchanged distances with respect to August were noted in about 39 percent of the counties (Table 10). Drying up of some open water sources, drop in water table and breakdown of facilities due to overuse were cited as the drivers of the observed worsening trend in the water situation. The longest distance of 18.4 and 8.8 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that order. On the contrary, the prevailing distance in majority of the counties was below the seasonal distance for the period and that could be attributed to availability of forage around some water sources occasioned by the massive regeneration that took place during the March to May period and sustained by the rainfall witnessed over the June to August period in some counties. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, September 2024 Garissa Baringo, Isiolo Isiolo Baringo, Garissa Kitui Turkana, Wajir Kwale Turkana, Wajir Kwale Embu, Kajiado Laikipia Embu, Kajiado Narok Kilifi, Laikipia Makueni Kilifi, Kitui Taita Taveta Lamu, Makueni Meru Lamu, Narok Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Marsabit West Pokot West Pokot Tana River Mandera Marsabit, Samburu Nyeri Samburu Tana River, Mandera 1.6 Terms of trade Majority of the counties constituting about 70 percent reported stable terms of trade in relation to the month of August while deterioration was noted in Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Meru and Samburu as a consequence of the slightly elevated maize prices and declining goat prices (Table 11). Garissa and Kilifi counties reported the lowest terms of trade of 41 and 104 among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that sequence. Noteworthy, the reported terms of trade in all the counties across September were above their respective long-term average attributable to fairly low trading price of maize aided by ongoing harvest and stocks from the previous season coupled with the body condition of goat that remained good over the past two seasons hence better market return value. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, September 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Laikipia, Baringo, Garissa Turkana, Wajir, Embu Lamu Turkana Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Narok, Nyeri Kajiado, Kitui Wajir Laikipia, Lamu, Tana River Taita Taveta Kwale Embu Makueni, Meru, Narok West Pokot Makueni Kilifi Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Marsabit Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Meru Tharaka Nithi, Samburu Mandera Samburu West Pokot, Mandera Tana River 1.7. Health and nutrition Stability in the nutrition situation was witnessed across most counties while about 43 percent of the counties reported a deteriorating trend (Table 12). Availability of milk albeit in low quantities prioritized for consumption by the under-fives, and consumption of diverse diets due to the slightly elevated purchasing power were some of the drivers of the observed trend. On the other hand, scale down of nutrition supplies through outreaches and poor child care practices were the major drivers of the worsening trend in the mapped counties. All the counties except West Pokot, Baringo, Lamu, Makueni, Turkana and Garissa reported malnutrition rates that were within the usual range with factors such as high morbidity rates and poor health care seeking behaviour contributing to the higher-than-average malnutrition rates observed. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September 2024 Baringo Kitui Isiolo, Wajir, Embu Baringo Lamu, Nyeri Isiolo, Wajir Garissa Kajiado, Kilifi Garissa Taita Taveta Kajiado Turkana Kwale, Laikipia Turkana, Embu Mandera Kilifi, Kitui Lamu Meru, Narok Kwale. Makueni Laikipia Makueni Nyeri, Taita Taveta Narok Meru West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Samburu Samburu Marsabit Tana River, Marsabit Tana River 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 12 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase and on a stable trend, nine at Normal phase and on a deteriorating trend while two are at Alert phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, September 2024 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Baringo, Kajiado, Makueni, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Mandera, Meru North, Nyeri, Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Tana Samburu, Lamu, Narok, Taita River, Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi Taveta, Laikipia, Isiolo Alert Garissa, Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Annex1- Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th September 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 25th at 29th (3-month) August Septemb 50 Vegetation greenness above 2024 er normal 2024 35 - Normal vegetation 50 greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 88.9 92.65 The county recorded above normal vegetation Central 85.78 89.92 greenness in September. North 86.89 91.25 South 87.22 91.81 Ravine 69.36 74.9 Mogotio 85.24 94.51 Tiaty 85.4 97.16 MANDERA County 119.68 121.82 The county remained stable as compared to Lafey 125.72 134.87 previous month of August at above normal North 117 126.19 vegetation greenness. Banissa 96.04 99.71 West 122.21 122.06 South 115.24 118.73 East 117.35 126.38 TURKANA County 88.4 92.48 The county recorded above normal vegetation East 73.12 90.43 greenness during the month under review. South 82.06 99.3 Loima 82.16 98.43 Central 99.72 106.27 West 70.28 92.72 North 65.45 83.71 MARSABI County 101.58 95.94 The county recorded above normal vegetation T Laisamis 101.36 96.21 greenness in September which was stable when Moyale 88.72 95.66 compared to previous month of August. North Horr 92.58 94.86 Saku 112.66 114.19 WAJIR County 100.42 98.15 The county maintained at above normal vegetation Tarbaj 94.84 105.88 greenness in September, as compared to the North 127.22 126.02 previous month of August. South 75.15 82.11 West 77.03 90.45 Eldas 106 112.16 East 91.44 94.99 SAMBURU County 95.69 100.61 The County maintained stability with vegetation East 96.16 106.81 greenness levels remaining above normal North 93.62 95.12 throughout the month under review. West 89.45 94.18 GARISSA County 76.3 74.5 The countys vegetation greenness remained Balambala 99.29 105.85 consistent at above-normal levels throughout the Township 76.48 74.11 month of September. Ijara 57.8 55.87 Fafi 60.43 60.93 Lagdera 98.08 107.14 Dadaab 80.21 77.02 ISIOLO County 107.99 110.52 The County maintained stability with vegetation North 90.52 110.61 greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. South 88.75 110.38 TANA County 80.6 80.6 The countys vegetation greenness remained RIVER Bura 90.19 90.19 consistent at above-normal levels throughout the Galole 63.04 63.04 month of September. Garsen 62.05 62.05 KAJIADO County 114.07 108.42 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation Central 88.92 98.91 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in East 102.43 114.06 the month of September. North 88.03 82.11 South 84.83 98.51 West 115.09 120 LAIKIPIA County 103.11 101.22 The county recorded stability in vegetation East 91.9 87.33 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness North 98.81 109.63 during the month under review. West 92.54 92.18 THARAKA County 100.8 92.63 The county recorded above normal vegetation NITHI Chuka 99.96 98.29 greenness in the month under review. Maara 90.55 86.1 Tharaka 85.61 92.58 WEST County 79.32 84.2 The county recorded stability in vegetation POKOT Kacheliba 72.66 83.67 greenness in normal vegetation greenness during Kapenguria 79.59 84.32 the month of September. Pokot south 81.63 83.38 Sigor 72.56 85.55 EMBU County 116.12 105.34 The county recorded above normal vegetation Manyatta 89.34 78.08 greenness during the month under review. Mbeere north 110.87 119.71 Mbeere south 104.39 109.59 Runyenjes 96.5 87.8 County 103.34 100.77 KITUI Kitui central 121.29 130.65 The county recorded a stability in vegetation Kitui east 98.83 104.7 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness Kitui rural 134.98 147.82 during the month of September. Kitui south 79.06 85.76 Kitui west 127.86 134.14 Mwingi central 103.66 106.09 Mwingi north 97.36 103.58 Mwingi west 126.43 136.45 County 119 115.36 Kaiti 115.35 120.08 MAKUENI Kibwezi east 77.16 88.87 The county recorded above normal vegetation Kibwezi west 103.04 109.91 greenness in September, which was stable when compared to previous month of August. Kilome 113.55 124.63 Makueni 131.77 138.03 Mbooni 137.64 143.86 County 95.22 99.83 Buuri 91.94 100.5 Central Imenti 82.48 82.62 MERU The county recorded above normal vegetation Igembe greenness across the sub-counties during the month central 92.3 110.67 of September. Igembe north 89.81 112.27 Igembe south 85.59 104.29 North Imenti 77.67 83.49 South Imenti 86.76 81.38 Tigania east 92.47 95.38 Tigania west 97.05 103.21 County 88.94 85.64 The county recorded above normal vegetation Kieni 92.69 92.12 greenness in September. NYERI Mathira 88.99 82.94 Mukurweini 91.69 75.45 Nyeri town 84.18 75.96 Othaya 83.39 74.66 Tetu 85.55 75.94 County 41.01 37.71 Ganze 31.21 32.86 KILIFI Kaloleni 36.6 43.36 Kilifi north 47.18 36.3 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness Kilifi south 44.87 42.56 in the month of September. Ganze, recorded Magarini 40.15 38.49 moderate vegetation deficit while the remaining sub Malindi 47.42 40.92 Rabai 49.38 47.61 County 40.4 42.02 KWALE Kinango 37.84 40.31 The vegetation condition index recorded was Lunga Lunga 37.67 40.26 normal vegetation greenness in September which Matuga 53.33 48.8 was stable when compared to last month. All sub Msambweni 58.01 53.58 LAMU County 68.5 65.48 Lamu east 79.39 73.96 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of Lamu west 70.88 60.57 September. County 87.02 81.15 TAITA Mwatate 76.56 75.08 TAVETA Taveta 85.15 96.52 The county remained stable at above normal Voi 70.75 74.33 vegetation greenness during the month of September. Wundanyi 96.58 106.09 County 94.6 82.96 Emurua The County recorded above normal vegetation Dikirr 81.59 70.9 greenness in the month of September which was NAROK Kilgoris 68.05 64.19 stable when compared to the last month of August. Narok east 90.38 84.97 Narok north 78.72 70.83 Narok south 101.97 99.13 Narok west 89.97 82.96",
            "October_2024.pdf": "October 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Nineteen (19) ASAL counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of the March to May (MAM) 2024 rainfall season and just ended June to September (JJAS) light seasonal rains in Pastoral North West counties. Four (4) counties were categorized in alert drought phase. However, the situation is on a worsening trend across most of the ASAL counties due to the delayed onset of the October to December (OND) season. Monitoring of the population flagged out in Figure 1. October 2024 Drought Phase July food security assessment, Long Rains Assessment (LRA) 2024, the number of people in need of assistance stands at one million. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 479,498 children aged 6 to 59 months and 110,169 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers currently acutely malnourished and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of October 2024. 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 October 2024 Rainfall Performance As shown in figure 2, October 2024, Kenya experienced mostly below-normal rainfall across various regions. The River) received notably low rainfall, with many areas seeing less than 50 of typical levels, especially in Mandera and Wajir. Similarly, the PNW cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) had significant deficits, with Turkana and Marsabit receiving very low amounts. In the CMA cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Taita Taveta), rainfall was mostly below normal, particularly in Taita Taveta, which fell below 50 of expected levels. The SEMA cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui) Figure 2. October 2024 Rainfall Performance also experienced low rainfall, especially in Makueni and Kitui. The AGP cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri) had mixed performance, with some areas like Baringo and Kajiado below normal, while parts of West Pokot and Nyeri approached near-normal rainfall. 1.1.2 November 2024 rainfall outlook The November 2024 rainfall forecast for Kenya indicates predominantly below-average rainfall across the specified clusters, as shown in figure 3. In the River), below-average rainfall is expected, with widespread dry conditions likely. Similarly, the PNW cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) is forecasted to receive near to below-average rainfall, though some areas may experience near-average conditions. The CMA cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Taita Taveta) is also expected to face below-average rainfall, with coastal areas particularly affected. The SEMA cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui) will likely experience near to below-average rainfall, signaling Figure 3. November 2024 Rainfall forecast generally dry conditions. In the AGP cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri), rainfall is forecasted to be near to below average, with potential near-normal conditions in some parts of West Pokot and Laikipia. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2024 with that of the previous month of September 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of October remained the same at above normal vegetation greenness when compared to that of the month of September. However, few spots; Kilifi and Kwale counties were stable at moderate vegetation deficit and normal vegetation greenness index respectively. September 2024 October 2024 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of September and October 2024 The month of October 2024 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of September. Stability in vegetation is due to the cumulative impacts of good MAM 2024 long rains season and moderate JJA rainfall season in Pastoral North West counties including Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Baringo and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. One county (1); Kwale recorded normal vegetation greenness, while one county (1); Kilifi recorded moderate vegetation deficit. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of October 2024 is provided in figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub- county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation Moderate (1) (4) vegetation Kilifi Kilifi (Ganze, North, Magarini, Malindi) Normal (1) (7) vegetation Kwale Kilifi (South, Rabai, Kaloleni), Kwale (Matuga, Kinango, greenness Lunga Lunga, Msambweni) Above (21) (102) normal Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Vegetation Kajiado, Kitui, Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, greenness Laikipia, Lamu, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Makueni, Mandera, Mwingi West), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Tana River, Tharaka Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Turkana and West Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta Pokot, (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha Baringo (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township), Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review with deteriorations noted across. About 74 and 65 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse respectively as being fair (Table 2). Receipt of off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the onset of the short rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally but last into the Short Rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, October 2024 Pasture Browse Baringo, Kwale Laikipia Embu, Isiolo, Meru Baringo, Kwale Makueni, Mandera Lamu Makueni, Mandera Laikipia, Lamu Marsabit, Meru Narok Samburu, Taita Taveta Marsabit, Narok Samburu, Wajir Nyeri Tana River, Turkana Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Wajir, Garissa, Kitui Kajiado, Kilifi Turkana, Embu Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui Tana river 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained stable ranging from fair to good. (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources as a consequence of the good recharge of the open water structures over the previous season. However, the delayed onset of OND in most of the counties pose a threat to the body condition of all livestock species. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, October 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Embu, Kajiado Marsabit, Baringo Embu, Kajiado Marsabit, Baringo, Kilifi, Lamu Samburu, Isiolo Kilifi, Lamu Nyeri, Kwale, Narok Makueni, Meru Kwale, Taita Taveta Makueni, Meru Taita Taveta Mandera, Wajir West Pokot, Nyeri Mandera, Wajir West Pokot, Laikipia Tana River Laikipia, Narok Tana River Turkana, Samburu Garissa, Kitui Turkana Garissa, Kitui Tharaka Nithi, Isiolo 1.3.4. Livestock diseases In Turkana County Lumpy Skin Disease has spread to new areas in Turkana due to cattle migration from South Sudan and Ethiopia. CBPP cases were found in multiple wards, while Tsetse fly infestations and tickborne diseases like Anaplasmosis and Babesiosis affected parts of Turkana West. No livestock deaths from drought were reported. Kwale reported cases of foot and mouth disease, CBPP, and Newcastle disease, while Kajiado had suspected cases of Pleuropneumonia, PPR, East Coast Fever, Lumpy Skin Disease, and Sheep and Goat Pox. In West Pokot, community reports indicated suspected cases of foot and mouth, LSD, CBPP, CCPP, PPR, and Newcastle disease. Baringo saw only endemic cases such as CCPP, PPR, mange, and Sheep and Goat Pox. Garissa faced ongoing challenges with endemic diseases, including CBPP, CCPP, trypanosomiasis, and hemorrhagic septicemia, especially impacting small livestock and cattle. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Declining trend in the market price of cattle was noted in about 43 percent of the counties while stability was witnessed in the other areas (Table 5). Deterioration in the body condition of cattle as a consequence of fair to poor pasture condition in the reporting counties was the major driver of the observed negative trend. Additionally, increased market supply and distress sales due to poor harvests were other notable price drivers. The prevailing price of cattle was above the seasonal range in all the counties due to the impact of the previous two rainfall seasons that enhanced pasture and water availability hence limiting elongated trekking. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Kitui Isiolo, Marsabit Wajir Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Mandera, Kwale Samburu, Embu Kilifi Mandera, Kwale Marsabit, Samburu, Lamu Kajiado, Kitui Nyeri Tana River, Tana River, Turkana, Meru Laikipia, Narok, Wajir, Embu, Narok, Nyeri Makueni Turkana, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Meru, West Taita Taveta Makueni, Taita Taveta Pokot Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability in the market price of goat was recorded in majority of the counties constituting 83 percent with price decline being noted in select areas like Garissa, Tana River, Meru and Taita Taveta (Table 6). The major factor cited for the price negativity in the four counties was increased supply of goats to markets while the relative stability reported in most areas could be attributed to a good body condition occasioned by availability of dry browse in the counties. Sustained good rangeland conditions over time following the previous two enhanced rainfall seasons had resulted to all the counties reporting prices that were above the usual seasonal range owing to the good body condition exhibited by goats compared to historical periods. Table 6.0: Goat prices, October 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Kilifi Baringo, Isiolo Garissa Mandera, Marsabit, Meru Kwale Mandera, Marsabit Tana River Samburu, Tana River Samburu, Turkana Meru Turkana, Wajir, Embu Wajir, Embu Taita- Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Kajiado, Kitui Taveta Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Laikipia, Lamu Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Makueni, Narok Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.4 Crop production Food and horticultural crops production is normally practiced in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture (CMA) and South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) clusters. In addition, within the other clusters, some households practice irrigated agriculture along the riverine areas and reclaimed productive lands. Majorly, farmers were engaged in land preparation in anticipation of the short rains whose onset had delayed. Other crop production activities taking place in the various counties were as outlined in table 7.0. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production CMA Kilifi Minimal land preparation was ongoing as the short rains season recorded a delay with a high likelihood of recorded depressed rains. Harvesting of mangoes, cassava and amaranths was reported however the quantities were low. Taita Farmers were undertaking land preparation with few dry planting. Taveta Others were harvesting the dried-up maize and stovers to conserve as livestock feed. In the Mixed Farming: irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone, farmers were planting maize, beans and kales. Kwale The major activity carried out by majority of the farmers was land preparation in anticipation of the OND onset that had delayed. Lamu Majority of the farmers were preparing their farms in readiness for planting while a small portion of farmers in the mixed farming livelihood zone were harvesting simsim. Most of the households currently have little food stocks due to below average production over the previous seasons. SEMA Kitui Land preparation and planting for the short rain season was on going in most areas with no germination witnessed as a consequence of the county not having attained the onset. Makueni Land preparation and dry planting was on going across the county in anticipation of the short rains for planting. Meru Majority of farmers had planted maize and beans with a few engaged in land preparation. Along the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone of Tigania East, crops planted earlier had started withering due to moisture stress. Agro- Kajiado Farmers were still preparing their farms in anticipation of the short pastoral rains Narok Majority of farmers in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were preparing land in readiness for the short rains season with those who had planted early engaged in weeding. West Land preparation was ongoing with crops under irrigated agriculture Pokot in Pokot South and West at various stages and in good condition. Baringo The farmers were preparing their farms in anticipation of the short rains. Laikipia Farmers in Laikipia East Sub County were preparing their land in readiness for the October to December (OND) rainfall. However, some farmers had already planted potatoes, taking advantage of the favourable conditions in anticipation of the rains. In Laikipia west and parts of Laikipia North Sub counties, farmers were finalizing with harvesting maize. Nyeri The main on farm activity was land preparation in anticipation of the short rains season. 1.4.1 Maize prices Majority of the ASAL counties reported stable maize prices during the period under review with price increase being noted in 25 percent of the areas (Table 8). Increased supplies from external markets in the adjacent agricultural counties, cross-border imports coupled with availability of substitute cereals were some of the factors influencing the observed stability. Reported maize price was within the normal range in all the counties except Mandera, Wajir and Garissa whose prices were heavily driven by the high transportation costs. Availability of stocks at the household level hence reduced demand was the major driver for the below normal maize prices recorded across most counties in October. Table 8.0: Maize prices, October 2024 Above Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worse- LTA to LTA ning Garissa Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo, Meru Baringo, Garissa Embu Mandera Turkana Samburu, Tana River Isiolo, Mandera Kajiado Wajir Kilifi Embu, Kajiado Marsabit, Samburu Kwale Kwale Kitui, Laikipia, Nyeri Tana River, Turkana Meru Lamu Makueni, Narok, Wajir, Kilifi, Kitui Narok Taita Taveta Laikipia, Lamu, Nyeri West- Tharaka Nithi Makueni, Taita Pokot West Pokot Taveta, Tharaka Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household return distance to water source increased in roughly 44 percent of the counties while relatively unchanged trekking distances were recorded in approximately 56 percent of the areas throughout the month under review (Table 9). Limited water access options occasioned by dry up of open water sources like water pans and breakdown of boreholes in close proximity to households due to overuse were the major drivers of the observed trend. Garissa and Kitui reported the longest distance of 10.3 and 6.9 kilometers respectively among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties. Consequently, 39 percent of the counties recorded trekking distances that were outside the usual range following the high land surface temperatures that accelerated depletion of the water resource in a number of counties. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, October 2024 Garissa, Nyeri Samburu Baringo, Isiolo Garissa, Isiolo Baringo Tana River Turkana Mandera Mandera, Lamu Samburu Wajir, Kwale Kilifi Marsabit, Embu Marsabit, Embu Wajir, Kajiado Lamu, Narok Kitui Kajiado, Laikipia Tana River Kilifi, Kwale Taita Taveta Makueni, Meru Turkana, Kitui Meru, Narok West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Laikipia, Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Elongated return trekking distance to water from grazing areas was noted in about 61 percent of the counties while unchanged distances in relation to September were recorded in 39 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 10). Notable drivers of the observed worsening trend in the aforementioned counties included deterioration in the quality and quantity of forage in sites adjacent to open water sources, significant drop in water table especially within the pastoral livelihood zones and breakdown of boreholes utilized as livestock watering points. The longest distance of 18.7 and 8.2 kilometres was recorded in Garissa and Kitui among the Arid and Semi- Arid counties respectively. Noteworthy, the prevailing distance in majority of the counties was within the seasonal range attributable to the impact of the previous rainfall season that promoted recharge of water facilities and forage regeneration across most areas. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, October 2024 Garissa Turkana Baringo, Isiolo Garissa Baringo, Isiolo Kitui Kilifi Mandera, Marsabit Mandera Samburu, Lamu Kwale West- Samburu, Kajiado Marsabit Tana River, Narok Narok Pokot Tana River, Wajir Wajir Turkana, Kajiado Nyeri Embu, Laikipia Kilifi, Kitui Laikipia, Meru Taita Taveta Lamu, Makueni Makueni Nyeri, Taita Taveta Meru, Tharaka Nithi Embu Tharaka Nithi Kwale West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Stability in the terms of trade was recorded in about 60 percent of the counties while the remaining counties reported a deteriorating trend in the terms of trade (Table 11). Declining goat prices coupled with marginally elevated maize prices were the major drivers of the worsening trend reported in 40 percent of the ASAL counties. The lowest terms of trade averaging 39.5 and 97 were recorded in Garissa and Lamu among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties respectively implying pastoral households were comparatively disadvantaged in these counties. With respect to the usual seasonal ranges, all counties reported terms of trade that were within the long-term average as a consequence of the relative stability observed in relation to livestock and agricultural productivity. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, October 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Lamu Samburu Baringo, Garissa Tana River Mandera, Marsabit, Embu Embu Isiolo, Mandera Kajiado, Kwale Samburu, Tana River Kilifi Marsabit Lamu, Meru Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Kitui Turkana, Wajir Narok, Nyeri Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Laikipia Makueni Tharaka Nithi Laikipia, Makueni, Taita Taveta West Pokot Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta 1.7. Health and nutrition Nutrition situation as visualized through the mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) targeting under-fives remained relatively stable in majority of the counties with about 35 percent of the counties recording a deteriorating trend (Table 12). Consumption of fairly diverse diets, availability of milk for utilization by the under-fives coupled with roll out of health outreaches that enhanced access to essential nutrition commodities were some of the notable drivers of the observed trend. Poor child care practices and high morbidity rates were the other notable factors influencing nutrition situation deterioration in the select counties. Proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was within the usual range in about 70 percent of the counties with Baringo, Turkana, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni and West Pokot reporting out of the normal range proportions. The out of the long-term average proportions reported could be attributed to persistent poor health seeking behavior and child feeding practices Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2024 Baringo Garissa Isiolo, Mandera Samburu Baringo, Garissa Marsabit Turkana Marsabit, Samburu Tana River Isiolo, Mandera Turkana, Wajir Kitui Tana River, Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi Embu, Kwale Laikipia Embu, Kajiado Kitui, Lamu Laikipia, Meru Lamu Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Makueni, Nyeri Narok Makueni Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 19 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase while four Counties including Garissa, Kilifi, Kwale and Tana River are at Alert drought phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, October 2024 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Narok, Nyeri Kitui, Makueni, Marsabit, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, West Pokot, Wajir Alert Garissa, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th October 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 29th at 27th (3-month) Septemb October 50 Vegetation greenness above er 2024 normal 2024 35 - Normal vegetation 50 greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 92.65 93.74 The county recorded above normal vegetation Central 89.92 92.21 greenness in September. North 91.25 89.41 South 91.81 93.24 Ravine 74.9 83.2 Mogotio 94.51 95.35 Tiaty 97.16 97.56 Mandera County 121.82 101.53 The county remained stable as compared to Lafey 134.87 108.08 previous month of September at above normal North 126.19 107.51 vegetation greenness. Banissa 99.71 78.92 West 122.06 101.33 South 118.73 104.61 East 126.38 99.36 Turkana County 92.48 87.61 The county recorded above normal vegetation East 90.43 85.43 greenness during the month under review. South 99.3 94.88 Loima 98.43 95.94 Central 106.27 99.51 West 92.72 88.11 North 83.71 77.91 Marsabit County 95.94 86.53 The county recorded above normal vegetation Laisamis 96.21 87.96 greenness in October which was stable when Moyale 95.66 81 compared to previous month of September. North Horr 94.86 86.14 Saku 114.19 104.59 Wajir County 98.15 85.44 The county maintained at above normal vegetation Tarbaj 105.88 94.25 greenness in October, as compared to the previous North 126.02 105.96 month of September. South 82.11 73.15 West 90.45 77.93 Eldas 112.16 94.34 East 94.99 85.28 Samburu County 100.61 91.15 The County maintained stability with vegetation East 106.81 92.05 greenness levels remaining above normal North 95.12 89.67 throughout the month under review. West 94.18 92.62 Garissa County 74.5 68.9 The countys vegetation greenness remained Balambala 105.85 92.98 consistent at above-normal levels throughout the Township 74.11 68.94 month of October. Ijara 55.87 57.2 Fafi 60.93 58.76 Lagdera 107.14 94.11 Dadaab 77.02 67.11 Isiolo County 110.52 99.85 The County maintained stability with vegetation North 110.61 100.94 greenness levels remaining above normal throughout the month under review. South 110.38 98.18 Tana River County 80.6 63.95 The countys vegetation greenness remained Bura 90.19 78.44 consistent at above-normal levels throughout the Galole 63.04 57.2 month of October. Garsen 62.05 55.87 Kajiado County 108.42 105.68 The county recorded stability in vegetation Central 98.91 102.19 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in East 114.06 112.58 the month of October. North 82.11 87.09 South 98.51 93.81 West 120 114.72 Laikipia County 101.22 95.54 The county recorded stability in vegetation East 87.33 73.62 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness North 109.63 105.01 during the month under review. West 92.18 88.4 Tharaka County 92.63 81.41 The county recorded above normal vegetation Nithi Chuka 98.29 91.3 greenness in the month under review. Maara 86.1 81.81 Tharaka 92.58 77.56 West Pokot County 84.2 86.13 The county recorded stability in vegetation Kacheliba 83.67 83.3 greenness in normal vegetation greenness during Kapenguria 84.32 86.28 the month of October. Pokot south 83.38 89.75 Sigor 85.55 89.02 Embu County 105.34 96.83 The county recorded above normal vegetation Manyatta 78.08 76.45 greenness during the month under review. Mbeere north 119.71 105.85 Mbeere south 109.59 100.23 Runyenjes 87.8 86.82 County 100.77 87.6 The county recorded a stability in vegetation Kitui Kitui central 130.65 119.89 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness Kitui east 104.7 85.33 during the month of October. Kitui rural 147.82 133.74 Kitui south 85.76 75.76 Kitui west 134.14 121.84 Mwingi central 106.09 92.11 Mwingi north 103.58 88.02 Mwingi west 136.45 124.52 County 115.36 108.99 The county recorded above normal vegetation Makueni Kaiti 120.08 121.2 greenness in October, which was stable when Kibwezi east 88.87 83.25 compared to previous month of September. Kibwezi west 109.91 100.04 Kilome 124.63 120.73 Makueni 138.03 130.24 Mbooni 143.86 140.27 County The county recorded above normal vegetation 99.83 94.39 greenness across the sub-counties during the month Buuri 100.5 98.1 of October. Central Meru Imenti 82.62 84.55 Igembe central 110.67 98.9 Igembe north 112.27 105.25 Igembe south 104.29 90.87 North Imenti 83.49 92.07 South Imenti 81.38 81.72 Tigania east 95.38 85.53 Tigania west 103.21 100.26 Nyeri County 85.64 83.73 The county remained stable recording above Kieni 92.12 87.79 normal vegetation greenness in October. Mathira 82.94 83.94 Mukurweini 75.45 77.05 Nyeri town 75.96 78.48 Othaya 74.66 73.59 Tetu 75.94 78.21 County 37.71 33.58 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in Kilifi Ganze 32.86 29.77 the month of October. Kilifi North, Magarini, Kaloleni 43.36 39.58 Malindi and Ganze, recorded moderate vegetation Kilifi north 36.3 31.33 deficit while the remaining sub counties recorded Kilifi south 42.56 40.13 normal vegetation greenness Magarini 38.49 34.15 Malindi 40.92 33.93 Rabai 47.61 42.59 County 42.02 37.92 The vegetation condition index recorded was Kwale Kinango 40.31 35.33 normal vegetation greenness in October which was Lunga Lunga 40.26 37.96 stable when compared to last month. Several sub Matuga 48.8 46.3 counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while Msabweni recorded above normal vegetation Msambweni 53.58 47.12 greenness. County 65.48 62.88 The county and all its sub counties recorded Lamu Lamu east 73.96 73.88 stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of Lamu west 60.57 56.52 October. Taita County 81.15 71.11 Taveta Mwatate 75.08 61.89 Taveta 96.52 88.48 The county remained stable at above normal Voi 74.33 64.42 vegetation greenness during the month of October. Wundanyi 106.09 95.08 County 82.96 80.61 The County recorded above normal vegetation Emurua greenness in the month of October which was stable Narok Dikirr 70.9 70.85 when compared to the last month of September. Kilgoris 64.19 66.43 Narok east 84.97 81.68 Narok north 70.83 64.41 Narok south 99.13 93.43 Narok west 82.96 83.76",
            "November_2024.pdf": "November 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview Twenty-one (21) ASAL counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as a result of good performance of the ongoing October November December (OND) 2024 rainfall season. Two (2) counties including; Kilifi and Kwale were categorized in alert drought phase, hence need close monitoring. The July 2024 food security assessment and Long Rains Assessment (LRA) indicate that the number of people in need of assistance is projected to rise from 1.0 million in July to 1.8 million by December 2024. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 479,498 children aged 6 to 59 months and 110,169 pregnant Figure 1. November Drought Phase and breastfeeding mothers currently malnourished acutely and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of November 2024. 1.1 Observed Drought Indicators 1.1.1 November 2024 Rainfall Performance In November 2024, rainfall performance varied significantly across Kenyas regions. In the Pastoral North Eastern cluster (Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River), Wajir and Mandera experienced below-normal rainfall (5175 of normal), while Isiolo, Garissa, and Tana River received near-normal rainfall (76125 of normal). The Pastoral North West cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) saw mixed conditions, with Turkana recording above-normal rainfall (126200 of normal), while Samburu and Marsabit experienced near-normal rainfall (76125 of normal). In the Coastal Marginal Cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Figure 2. November Rainfall Performance Taita Taveta), Kilifi and Kwale had above-normal rainfall (126150 of normal), Lamu received near-normal rainfall (76125), and Taita Taveta faced below-normal rainfall (5175). The South Eastern Marginal Agriculture Cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui) largely experienced near-normal rainfall (76125), except for Makueni and Kitui, which saw slightly above-normal rainfall (126150). Lastly, in the Agro Pastrol Cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri), rainfall was above normal (176200) in Baringo and West Pokot, near normal (76125) in Narok and Laikipia, and near to slightly below normal (51125) in Kajiado and Nyeri. Overall, rainfall performance showed both deficits and surpluses across different clusters. 1.1.2 December 2024 Rainfall Outlook The December 2024 rainfall forecast shows varied conditions across Kenyas clusters. In the Pastoral North Eastern cluster (Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River), most areas, including Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo, are expected to experience near-average to below- average rainfall, indicating dry conditions, while Tana River is forecasted to have near-average rainfall. In the Pastoral North West cluster (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit), Turkana and Marsabit are predicted to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, signaling favorable conditions, whereas Samburu is expected to experience near-average rainfall. The Coastal Marginal Agriculture cluster (Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Taita Taveta) is forecasted to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, indicating likely dry conditions across all counties. For the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture cluster (Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui), rainfall is predicted to remain near average, suggesting stable conditions. Finally, in the Agro Pastoral cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri), Baringo, West Pokot, and Narok are expected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall, while Laikipia, Kajiado, and Nyeri are forecasted to have near-average rainfall, reflecting favorable to Figure 3. December Rainfall forecast moderate conditions overall. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in November 2024 with that of the previous month of October 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of November was at above normal vegetation greenness and normal vegetation greenness when compared to that of the month of September in most counties. Kilifi county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit. While Kwale county deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Garissa counties also deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness from above normal vegetation greenness when compared to last month. The month of November 2024 stability in vegetation condition in most Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) and slight deterioration in vegetation condition across few Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of October. Stability in vegetation is due to the impact of good performance OND rains which has regenerated pasture and browse in most counties. Slight deterioration in vegetation can be attributed to poor performance of OND rains in these counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Eighteen (18) ASAL counties including; Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, Lamu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Kitui, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot and Nyeri recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Three counties (3); Garissa, Taita Taveta and Tana River recorded normal vegetation greenness, while two counties (2); Kilifi and Kwale recorded moderate vegetation deficit. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of November 2024 is provided in figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub- county is provided in Table1. October 2024 November 2024 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of October and November 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation deficit Moderate (2) (7) vegetation Kilifi, Kwale Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, North, Magarini, Malindi) Kwale deficit (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Normal (3) (17) vegetation Garissa, Taita Taveta, Garissa (Fafi, Township, Daadab), Kilifi (South, Rabai), Kitui greenness Tana River (South), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (West), Taita (Mwatate, Voi), Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Wajir (South, West) Above (18) (89) normal Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Vegetation Turkana, Samburu, Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, greenness Marsabit, Lamu, East, Rural, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi Meru, Embu, Tharaka West), Laikipia (East, West, North), Lamu (East), Makueni, Nithi, Makueni, Kitui, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Baringo, Narok, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe Kajiado, Laikipia, West North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Pokot, Nyeri Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi),Tharaka Nithi (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara), West Pokot (Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria, Kacheliba), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West), Turkana:( East, South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine, South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera, Ijara). 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The short rains have positively impacted livestock conditions by improving water access and forage availability, stabilizing livestock body conditions. Overall, forage quality was generally fair to good across the counties during the review period, although some areas experienced deterioration. About 73 and 17 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse respectively as being fair (Table 2), while Kilifi and Kwale reported poor conditions. Receipt of the off-season rainfall in some counties coupled with the effect of the onset of the short rainfall sustained availability of forage throughout the month under review. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Notably, the condition is projected to deteriorate albeit marginally, but last into the Short Rains season. Pasture Browse Kilifi Baringo Laikipia Kilifi Embu Baringo Kwale Embu Lamu Kwale Garissa Laikipia Garissa Narok Kajiado Lamu Kajiado Nyeri Kitui Marsabit Kitui Makueni Narok Makueni Isiolo Nyeri Isiolo Meru Taita Taveta Mandera Samburu West Pokot Marsabit Mandera Meru Tana River Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Turkana Tana river Wajir Turkana Wajir 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained stable, ranging from fair to good (Table 3). This stability was primarily attributed to the availability of quality, palatable forage in adequate quantities within the usual grazing zones near households, combined with relatively shorter trekking distances to water sources due to the good recharge of open water structures in the previous season. However, the delayed onset of the October November December(OND) rains in most counties poses a risk to the body condition of all livestock species. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, November 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo Embu Baringo Embu Garissa Isiolo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Kitui Laikipia Kwale Lamu Kwale Lamu Makueni Marsabit Makueni Marsabit Mandera Meru Mandera Meru Taita Taveta Narok Taita Taveta Narok Tana River Nyeri Tana River Nyeri Wajir Samburu Tharaka Nithi Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Turkana Turkana West Pokot 1.3.3. Livestock diseases Various counties have reported livestock disease as follows; Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in the southern parts of Garissa, Tana River, Kwale (Gulanze and Ndavaya areas in Kinango subcounty), Laikipia (Tigithi in Laikipia East Sub County, Salama in Laikipia West Sub County, and Thigithu in Laikipia East Sub County) and West Pokot (Kapchok and Chepareria wards). Increased incidences of helminthiasis and ectoparasites such as ticks were reported in Garissa with the prevalence of abortions being high in Turkana County. Some areas like Balambala, Mwingi West and Kitui West sub counties witnessed high cases of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) throughout the subject month under review. Equally, African Swine Fever cases were confirmed in Kitui Central while worm infestation especially among the small stock was high in Baringo. Regular monitoring and vaccination campaigns shall remain key towards mitigating any disease outbreaks. 1.3.4 Cattle prices Generally the price of cattle was stable and good across most counties which is attributed to the stable livestock body condition occasioned by pasture and water availability. (Table 5). Notably, the prevailing price of cattle was above the respective long-term average in all the counties during the period under review. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Kitui Garissa, Isiolo Baringo Mandera, Isiolo, Mandera, Kwale Embu, Kajiado Wajir Nyeri Marsabit, Samburu, Laikipia, Meru Lam , Kwale Lamu Narok,Makueni Tana River, Tana River, Turkana, Taita Taveta Kilifi Meru West pokot,Nyeri Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Narok, Samburu,Marsabit,Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Makueni, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot 1.3.5 Goat Prices Stability with a tendency to improve in the market price of goats was witnessed across most ASAL counties during the month under review. Only Turkana and Wajir counties reported a declining trend with respect to the prevailing trading price of goat over November. Unbalanced demand and supply in the market was the major driver of the aforementioned negative trend. Overall, all the counties reported prices that were above the normal price for the period. The good body condition driven by browse availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo West Baringo, Garissa Turkana Mandera, Marsabit, Meru Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Wajir Samburu, Tana River Marsabit, Embu Turkana, Wajir, Embu Samburu, Kilifi Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Tana River, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Kajiado, Kwale Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Laikipia, Lamu Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Makueni, Meru Narok, Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi, 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture, Agro pastoral and south east marginal agriculture clusters. Table 7 summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production CMA Taita Planted crops were at below knee-high (growth stage) with select few Taveta farmers engaged in weeding. In the mixed farming: irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone, farmers were planting maize, beans and kales. Kwale Majority of the farmers were involved in land preparation and planting. Lamu Rainfall recorded during the month prompted successful germination especially in areas where dry planting was done. Most of the crops especially maize were at different stages of germination, knee and above Knee height. SEMA Meru Legumes had germinated and were in fair condition while maize crops were at a different growth stage: still germinating in most areas but already reaching knee-high in Tigania East for farmers who planted earlier in the season. Overall, crops are in fair to good condition supported by enhanced rainfall received in the county during the month under review. Farmers were mainly focused on weeding to support crop growth. Tharaka Farmers were actively ploughing and planting key crops such as green Nithi grams, sorghum, millet, maize and beans. Early planting, driven by expectations of the October-November-December (OND) rains, led to notable germination in the Mixed Farming zones of Mukothima and Nkondi. Kitui Most crops were at leaf stage while others were at germination stage, all performing well across the livelihood zones. Households recorded zero stocks, having depleted all maize stocks held and were thus relying on markets for purchases. Makueni Crops had germinated in most parts of the county and were in fair condition. 20 Spread of invasive weeds and poor rainfall distribution was hindering farming activities especially in the Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones. Embu Crops had germinated and were below knee high. Farmers were weeding and spraying to control pests but the crops were in good condition. Agro- Kajiado Maize crop was one and a half feet high while beans had started pastoral flowering. Crop conditions ranged from fair in Agro-pastoral areas to good in the mixed farming south. Most farmers were weeding. Normally, beans would be flowering and maize would be three feet tall. Narok A few of the farmers in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones were planting with those who planted early engaged in weeding. Laikipia In Laikipia East, crops were at the leafing stage with farmers carrying out the first round of weeding. In Laikipia West and parts of Laikipia North Sub Counties, farmers were concluding harvesting maize. The projected maize yield for the season is above average due to improved farming practices such as better soil management and the use of quality seeds, as well as favourable weather conditions that supported optimal crop growth. 1.4.1 Maize prices Stability in the price of maize in relation to the previous month was evident across majority of the counties save for about 21 percent of the areas including Narok, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi among others that reported price increase attributable to dwindling household stocks and increased demand as the festive season approaches over the reference period (Table 8). Noteworthy, all counties except Garissa, Mandera, Wajir and Lamu reported prices that were within the usual price range in November. Observed trend over the month under review was due to the combined effect of local production more so in the marginal agriculture and Agro pastoral areas and external supplies including cross-border imports. Table 8.0: Maize prices, November 2024 Above Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worse- LTA to LTA ning Garissa Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo, Nyeri Wajir Baringo, Garissa Embu Mandera Turkana Samburu, Tana River Kwale Isiolo, Mandera Kajiado Wajir Kilifi Embu, Kajiado, West Pokot Marsabit, Kitui Lamu Kitui, Kwale, Meru Samburu, Meru Narok Laikipia, Makueni Tana River, Taita Taveta Narok, Taita Taveta Turkana, Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Laikipia West Pokot Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Nyeri 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 78 percent of the counties is currently within the corresponding long-term average distance for the period compared to the previous month. In the arid counties, distance to water source averages 5.4 kilometres with Mandera and Wajir recording the highest distance of 8.5 kilometres. On the other hand, distance in the semi-arid counties averages 3.3 kilometres with Lamu reporting the highest distance of 5.9 kilometres. Over the month under review, approximately 87 percent of the counties reported an improving trend following the rainfall received during the second and third dekad of November. However, the negative trend witnessed in some counties like Kilifi, West Pokot and Kwale could be attributed to the poor recharge and the fact that provisioned water sources were turbid for household consumption. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, November 2024 Garissa Samburu Isiolo, Mandera Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit Mandera Baringo Wajir Turkana Marsabit, Embu Samburu, Tana River Turkana Kilifi Kwale Kitui Tana River Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Lamu Laikipia Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Lamu, Makueni Nyeri Meru Meru Makueni Narok Narok, Taita Taveta West Pokot Taita Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Taveta West Pokot Baringo 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The current trekking distance to water source from grazing area is stable and increased in 21 percent of the counties hence a significant improvement from the previous month (Table 10). The aforementioned counties that reported a worsening trend included: Kilifi, Mandera, Kwale and West Pokot with poor rainfall amounts, reduced forage levels in sites adjacent to water sources and water infrastructure deficiencies being cited as the major drivers of the observed situation. The average livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water points in the arid counties averaged 9 kilometres with Mandera reporting the longest distance of 13.4 kilometres. In the semi-arid counties, the distance averaged 4 kilometres with Lamu reporting the longest distance of 6.8 kilometres. Save for Kwale, Narok and West Pokot counties, the prevailing distance in all the other counties was within the usual seasonal range as a consequence of the recharge that took place compounded by the forage regeneration. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, November 2024 Kwale Turkana Baringo, Garissa Baringo, Garissa Marsabit Mandera Narok Kilifi Isiolo, Mandera Isiolo, Samburu Turkana Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Marsabit, Samburu Tana River, Embu Laikipia Kilifi Tana River, Wajir Kajiado, Kitui Makueni Kwale Embu, Kajiado Lamu, Meru, Nyeri Narok West Pokot Kitui, Laikipia Taita Taveta Lamu, Makueni Tharaka Nithi Meru, Taita Taveta 1.6 Terms of trade Over the reference period under review, all counties reported terms of trade that were above the corresponding long-term average and that represented a similar scenario to the previous month. The observed trend was as a consequence of the relatively low maize prices over time that fairly matched the high prices of goat and therefore the purchasing power remained moderate especially in the pastoral set ups. However, compared to the previous period, deterioration in the terms of trade was noted in roughly 52 percent of the counties while 48 percent of the areas reported stability. The marginal shift in the price of maize across November was the major driver of the observed negative trend in the aforementioned counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, November 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Baringo, Isiolo, Marsabit Mandera, Marsabit, Embu Garissa Samburu, Embu Samburu, Tana River Mandera, Turkana, Wajir Turkana, Wajir, Kajiado Nyeri Kajiado, Kitui Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Meru Tana River Laikipia, Narok Laikipia, Makueni, Lamu Kilifi, Lamu Taita Taveta Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Makueni, Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Meru Kwale 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation was on a worsening trend in about 52 percent of the counties as evidenced by the increase in proportion of children falling within the at risk category (Table 12). The remaining counties reported a stable trend. The worsening trend in the prior mentioned counties was as a consequence of reduced milk production hence consumption at household level, poor dietary diversity, inadequate food intake, and poor childcare practices. Approximately 39 percent of the counties reported a nutrition situation that was worser compared to the usual situation at such a time of the year and that could be attributed to the limited number of outreach activities delivering essential nutrition services coupled with the high morbidity rates. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November 2024 Baringo Isiolo, Mandera Turkana Baringo Garissa, Isiolo Garissa Marsabit, Samburu Embu Marsabit Mandera, Samburu Turkana Tana River, Wajir Laikipia Kajiado Tana River, Wajir Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Narok Lamu Kilifi, Kitui Kitui Kwale, Laikipia West Pokot Nyeri Kwale, Makueni Lamu Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Meru, Tharaka Nithi Makueni Taita Taveta Meru Tharaka Nithi 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, twenty-one (21) ASAL counties are at the Normal phase while two Counties including Kilifi and Kwale are at Alert drought phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, November 2024 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Baringo, Isiolo, Turkana, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Marsabit, Wajir, Kitui, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Kajiado, Makueni, West Pokot, Samburu Nyeri Alert Kwale Kilifi Alarm Emergency Recovery Annex 1 Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th November 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 27th at 24th (3-month) October Novemb 50 Vegetation greenness above er 2024 2024 normal 35 - Normal vegetation 50 greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 93.74 80.31 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in November. Central 85.99 92.21 North 89.41 73.05 South 93.24 80.94 Ravine 83.2 84.32 Mogotio 95.35 86.09 Tiaty 97.56 79.42 MANDERA County 101.53 73.35 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of October at above normal Lafey 78.45 108.08 vegetation greenness. North 107.51 81.83 Banissa 78.92 61.46 West 101.33 67.68 South 104.61 74.52 East 99.36 68.37 TURKANA County 76.24 The county recorded above normal vegetation 87.61 East 66.91 85.43 South 94.88 77.79 Loima 95.94 87.86 Central 99.51 83.62 West 88.11 84.13 North 77.91 67.02 MARSABI County 86.53 62.81 The county recorded above normal vegetation T greenness in November which was stable when Laisamis 64.18 87.96 compared to the previous month of October. Moyale 81 52.62 North Horr 86.14 64.05 Saku 104.59 73.41 WAJIR County 85.44 57.03 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in November. However two sub counties Tarbaj 66.43 94.25 Wajir (South and West) recorded Normal North 105.96 71.16 vegetation greenness. South 73.15 49.67 West 77.93 45.49 Eldas 94.34 58.79 East 85.28 62.69 SAMBURU County 91.15 68.73 The County maintained stability with vegetation East 62.11 92.05 North 89.67 72.95 West 92.62 81.28 GARISSA County 68.9 49.91 The county and its two sub counties (Fafi and Dadaab) deteriorated to Normal Vegetation Balambala 59.34 92.98 greenness in the month of November. Township 68.94 45.98 Ijara 57.2 51.44 Fafi 58.76 44.99 Lagdera 94.11 58.51 Dadaab 67.11 45.88 ISIOLO County 63.38 The County maintained stability with vegetation 99.85 North 63.48 100.94 South 98.18 63.22 TANA County 42.54 The county and all its sub counties declined to 63.95 RIVER Normal vegetation greenness levels throughout the Bura 49.78 78.44 month of November. Galole 57.2 37.58 Garsen 55.87 39.49 KAJIADO County 84.97 The county recorded stability in vegetation 105.68 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in Central 87.05 102.19 East 112.58 87.42 North 87.09 89.27 South 93.81 70.79 West 114.72 94.15 LAIKIPIA County 76.8 The county recorded stability in vegetation 95.54 East 57.53 73.62 during the month under review. North 105.01 81.18 West 88.4 77.9 THARAKA County 56.27 The county recorded above normal vegetation 81.41 greenness. Tharaka sub county recorded Normal NITHI Chuka 73.32 vegetation greenness in the month under review. Maara 81.81 72.63 Tharaka 77.56 44.63 WEST County 81.14 The county recorded stability in vegetation 86.13 POKOT greenness as normal vegetation greenness during Kacheliba 79.23 Kapenguria 86.28 82.57 Pokot south 89.75 91.62 Sigor 89.02 77.19 EMBU County 74.65 The county recorded above normal vegetation 96.83 Manyatta 79.62 76.45 Mbeere north 105.85 70.63 Mbeere south 100.23 73.2 Runyenjes 86.82 83.65 County 55.99 The county recorded stability in vegetation KITUI Kitui central 79.31 119.89 during the month of November, however Kitui Kitui east 85.33 52.36 south declined to normal vegetation greenness. Kitui rural 133.74 87.03 Kitui south 75.76 49.06 Kitui west 121.84 79.32 Mwingi central 92.11 56.64 Mwingi north 88.02 56.93 Mwingi west 124.52 83.53 County 80.06 The county recorded above normal vegetation 108.99 greenness in November, which was stable when MAKUENI Kaiti 101.13 121.2 compared to previous month of October. Kibwezi east 83.25 57.81 Kibwezi west 100.04 72.8 Kilome 120.73 92.78 Makueni 130.24 94.42 Mbooni 140.27 105.84 County 73.16 The county recorded above normal vegetation 94.39 greenness across the sub-counties during the month Buuri 84.88 of November. Central Imenti 84.55 76.62 Igembe central 98.9 66.65 Igembe north 105.25 68 Igembe south 90.87 60.05 North Imenti 92.07 81.82 South Imenti 81.72 81.47 Tigania east 85.53 65.03 Tigania west 100.26 74.09 County 81.42 The county remained stable recording above 83.73 normal vegetation greenness in November. NYERI Kieni 81.61 87.79 Mathira 83.94 86.2 Mukurweini 77.05 74.28 Nyeri town 78.48 74.3 Othaya 73.59 80.09 Tetu 78.21 82.7 County 26.44 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in 33.58 the month of October. Kaloleni, Kilifi North, KILIFI Ganze 22.1 29.77 Magarini, Malindi and Ganze, recorded moderate Kaloleni 39.58 32.43 vegetation deficit while the remaining two sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness. Kilifi north 31.33 33.97 Kilifi south 40.13 35.95 Magarini 34.15 25.67 Malindi 33.93 30.33 Rabai 42.59 35.48 KWALE County 31.04 The vegetation condition index recorded was 37.92 moderate vegetation deficit in November which Kinango 26.09 35.33 was a decline when compared to last month. Lunga Lunga 37.96 31.73 Kinango and Lungalunga sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness while Msabweni Matuga 46.3 47.69 recorded normal vegetation greenness. Msambweni 47.12 43.97 County 57.06 The county recorded stability in vegetation 62.88 LAMU condition at above normal vegetation greenness Lamu east 71.04 73.88 condition while Lamu West sub county recorded Normal vegetation greenness during the month of Lamu west 56.52 48.98 November. County 49.56 TAITA 71.11 TAVETA Mwatate 40.75 61.89 Taveta 88.48 64.03 The county and two sub counties (Mwatate and Voi) recorded Normal vegetation greenness which Voi 64.42 44.27 is a decline compared with the previous month of Wundanyi 95.08 70.12 October. County 76.98 The County recorded above normal vegetation 80.61 greenness in the month of November which was Emurua stable when compared to the last month of October. NAROK Dikirr 73.95 70.85 Kilgoris 66.43 70.22 Narok east 81.68 75.42 Narok north 64.41 65.14 Narok south 93.43 83.45 Narok west 83.76 83.76",
            "December_2024.pdf": "December 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained normal across majority of the ASAL counties. The stable trend was attributed to the light showers experienced in December that aided in sustaining the impact of the good rainfall received in November. Three (3) counties, Wajir, Mandera and Kilifi were in Alert drought phase while the remaining twenty (20) ASAL counties were in Normal drought phase (Figure 1). Four (4) counties including Tana River, Embu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi were classified to be at Normal and on an improving trend, ten (10) counties including Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Figure 1. December Drought Phase Narok, Nyeri at Normal and on a stable trend while six (6) counties including Baringo, Marsabit, Kajiado, Lamu, Meru, West Pokot at Normal and on a worsening trend. The classification was based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual seasonal ranges except for the counties at Alert drought phase. The trend of food insecurity among populations has been on the rise since July 2024. The Current number of food insecure population is approximately 1.8 persons in ASAL counties. The Counties of Wajir, Garissa, Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera have the highest proportions of food insecure populations. Despite the improvements from the previous season, levels of acute malnutrition have still remained elevated in some arid counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Baringo (Tiaty) and Turkana. The total caseload for children aged 6-59 months as well as pregnant and breastfeeding mothers currently acutely malnourished and in need of urgent treatment is estimated at 479,498 and 110, 169 respectively. 1.1 Observed Drought Indicators 1.1.1 December 2024 Rainfall Performance Throughout December 2024, the rainfall performance across the Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) counties displayed significant spatial variation, with notable disparities between clusters. The Pastoral North East (PNE) cluster, encompassing Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, and Tana River, experienced predominantly below-average rainfall, with large areas receiving less than 50 percent of the long-term mean (LTM), and isolated zones falling below 25 percent. In contrast, the pastoral north west (PNW) cluster, which includes Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit, also faced deficits, with Figure 2. December Rainfall Performance (source: KMD) most areas recording amounts below 50 percent of LTM, particularly in Turkana and Marsabit. The coastal marginal agriculture (CMA) cluster, comprising Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Taita Taveta, generally experienced average to above- average rainfall, with coastal regions such as Kilifi and Kwale receiving 101200 percent of the LTM. The south eastern marginal agriculture (SEMA) cluster, which includes Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, and Kitui, recorded mixed performance, with southern parts receiving slightly above-average rainfall (76125 percent of LTM) while northern areas received below average rainfall. Lastly, the Agro-pastoral (AGP) cluster, that consistutes Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, and Nyeri, demonstrated heterogeneous rainfall distribution, with Narok and Kajiado receiving above-average rainfall (101200 percent of LTM), while Baringo and Laikipia experienced deficits, with some areas falling below 50 percent of the LTM. 1.1.2 January 2025 Rainfall Outlook The rainfall forecast for January 2025 across the ASAL counties indicates predominantly dry conditions with significant spatial variation among the clusters. The PNE cluster is expected to experience generally sunny and dry conditions, consistent with climatological norms, with little to no rainfall anticipated. Similarly, the PNW cluster is also forecasted to have predominantly dry conditions under the same climatological patterns. The CMA cluster is forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall, particularly in coastal areas where isolated showers might occur. Sunny and dry conditions are forecasted for the SEMA cluster, with sporadic rainfall possible in some locations.Lastly, the AGP cluster is anticipated to follow a similar pattern of mainly dry conditions with occasional rainfall particularly in the southern and western areas such as Narok and Kajiado. Figure 3. January Rainfall forecast (Source: KMD) 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2024 with that of the previous month of November 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of December was above normal vegetation greenness compared to that of the month of November in most counties, however with a deteriorating trend. Kilifi and Kwale counties maintained at moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir county deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation greenness. Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo and Tharaka Nithi counties deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness from above normal vegetation greenness when compared to November. The month of December 2024 showed huge deterioration in vegetation condition in most Arid Counties. Deterioration in vegetation was due to the impact of poor performance of OND rains which did not have a positive improvement in terms of vegetation regeneration. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Fourteen (14) ASAL counties including; Turkana, Samburu, Lamu, Meru, Embu, Makueni, Kitui, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Laikipia, West Pokot, Tana River and Nyeri recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Six counties (6); Marsabit, Isiolo, Tharaka Nithi, Garissa, Mandera and Taita Taveta recorded normal vegetation greenness, while three counties (3); Kilifi, Kwale and Wajir recorded moderate vegetation deficit. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties at end of December 2024 is provided in figure 4. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. November 2024 December 2024 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of November and December 2024 Table1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (1) vegetation Wajir (West) deficit Moderate (3) (9) vegetation Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale Isiolo (North), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, South, Rabai), Wajir deficit (Eldas, South), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga) Normal (6) (23) vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Isiolo (South), Kilifi (North, Magarini, greenness Mandera, Marsabit, Malindi), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Mandera (West, South, Taita Taveta and East, Banissa), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi), Tana River (Bura), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Tarbaj, North, East) Above (14) (80) normal Turkana, Samburu, Baringo (Central, North, Ravine, South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Embu Vegetation Lamu, Meru, Embu, (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Garissa greenness Makueni, Kitui, (Balambala, Township, Ijara, Fafi, Ijara), Kajiado (Central, East, Baringo, Narok, North, South, West), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South West, Kajiado, Laikipia, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Laikipia (East, West Pokot, Tana West, North), Lamu (East, West), Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, River and Nyeri Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Mandera (Lafey, North), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Samburu:( East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi), Tharaka Nithi (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( East, South, Central, North, Loima, West), West Pokot (Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria, Kacheliba), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally fair to good across the counties during the period under review with deterioration being noted across majority of them. About 65 and 43 percent of the ASAL counties reported the condition of pasture and browse respectively as being fair (Table 2), while Mandera reported the condition as being poor. Forage availability was sustained in December as a consequence of the light showers received coupled with the cumulative effect of the good rainfall received in November. However, moderate land surface temperatures prevailing in some areas contributed towards the slight deterioration witnessed in some pocket zones. Table 2.0: Forage Condition, December 2024 Pasture Browse Mandera Baringo, Embu Laikipia Mandera Garissa, Isiolo Baringo, Embu Garissa, Isiolo Lamu, Narok Kajiado, Meru Kilifi, Kitui Kajiado, Kilifi Nyeri, Kwale Makueni Kwale, Laikipia Kitui, Makueni Taita Taveta Marsabit Lamu, Narok Marsabit, Meru Tana river Samburu Nyeri Samburu, Wajir Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana, Wajir Tana River Turkana, West Pokot West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock remained relatively stable in relation to the previous month of November ranging from fair to good (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed trend included: forage and water availability in sites adjacent to households across most counties. Additionally, availability of crop residues sufficed in supplementing the livestock feed. Improved provision of livestock health services such as vaccination by different stakeholders equally aided in promoting the stable livestock body condition observed. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, December 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo Embu, Isiolo Baringo, Garissa Embu, Isiolo Garissa, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi Makueni, Mandera Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Wajir Kwale, Laikipia Marsabit, Kitui Kwale, Laikipia Makueni Marsabit, Meru Tana River, Lamu Meru, Narok Mandera Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Nyeri, Taita Tana River Samburu, Turkana Wajir Taveta, Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Turkana 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Poultry farmers in Tharaka Nithi and Kwale (Gulanze and Ndavaya in Kinango subcounty) faced isolated cases of Newcastle disease. Persistent cases of endemic East Coast Fever (ECF) were recorded in Narok. The dominant syndrome reported in Marsabit was Respiratory at 26.9 percent, Gastrointestinal at 20.4 percent, and Abortion at 13.6 percent. Equally, incidents of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) were widespread in Marsabit especially around Butiye, Golbo, KorrNgurunit, Laisamis, North Horr, Sololo, Turbi, HeilluManyatta and Moyale Township and Garissa (Balambala sub county). Foot rot associated with the cold conditions in December was recorded in Embu. Suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) were reported in Kajiado, Meru (Amwathi in Igembe North), Samburu, West Pokot (Chepareria ward), Tana River and southern parts of Garissa. Rabies and goat pox presented the highest prevalence of 50.1 and 42.9 percent and mortality rate of 24 and 14.3 percent respectively in Turkana. An unknown disease-causing paralysis and death in lambs and kids was reported in Masol and Lomut wards while 36,302 cattle were vaccinated against Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) in West Pokot. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties constituting 78 percent reported an improving trend in the price of cattle in relation to the previous month with only Mandera, Wajir and Tharaka Nithi reporting a negative trend (Table 5). The decline in price in the aforementioned counties was occasioned by distress stress hence over supply driven by the poor performance of the short rains and drop in demand for cattle with a high preference for camels in December. Notably, the improving trend in the other areas was driven by the good cattle body condition that enabled pastoralists fetch more. Noteworthy, the recorded prices across all the counties were above the corresponding usual prices for the period with good body condition, vibrant market participation, scarcity at the markets due to hoarding and low volumes in some areas, and high demand for cattle meat during the festive season being cited as factors sustaining the above normal prices. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, December 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Baringo, Garissa Marsabit Mandera Mandera, Marsabit, Lamu Isiolo, Samburu Kitui Wajir Samburu, Tana River Tana River, Embu Tharaka Nithi Turkana, Wajir, Embu Turkana, Kajiado Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Laikipia, Makueni Nyeri, Taita Taveta Meru, Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi, Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot, Meru West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Save for Mandera and Wajir that reported a negative trend in the price of goat attributed to deteriorating body condition, majority of the counties constituting 91 percent reported a stable to improving trend across December (Table 6). The positive trend in these counties was influenced by the high demand over the festive season and browse availability following the rainfall received hence good body condition. The prevailing market price of goat across all the counties was above the usual prices for the period and that could be attributed to sustained improvement in the body condition of goat following the rainfall received that promoted availability of quality palatable browse in majority of the areas. Table 6.0: Goat prices, December 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Samburu Baringo Mandera Mandera, Marsabit, Meru Tana River Garissa Wajir Samburu, Tana River Turkana, Lamu Isiolo Turkana, Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Marsabit Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Kwale, Meru Kilifi, Embu Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni Laikipia Makueni Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production CMA Taita Crops were above knee-high and others at knee high stage in the Taveta Mixed Farming: Food Crop Livestock and Horticulture Dairy livelihood zones. Maize crop was at tasselling stage in the Mixed Farming: irrigatedlivestock livelihood zone. Kilifi Early planted maize in parts of the Marginal Mixed zone was at knee- high and in good condition. In addition. cassava crop was in good condition. However, most farms remained bushy as farmers were reluctant to prepare and plant following the forecasted poor rainfall season. Lamu Rainfall recorded during the month prompted successful germination especially in areas where dry planting was done. Most of the crops were at different stages including germination, knee high to and above Knee high. Kwale The major activities carried out by majority of the farmers were weeding and harvesting of some of the early planted crops. SEMA Meru Legumes were at growth stages ranging from tussling to podding, with their condition being poor to fair. Cereal crops were at varying stages of development: knee-high in the lower zones of Tigania East, Tigania West, Igembe North, Igembe Central, and parts of Buuri, while in the upper zones of Tigania East and Tigania West, crops are flowering for farmers who planted earlier in the season. Overall, crop conditions were rated as poor to fair, largely due to below-average OND rainfall and with the current rainfall outlook, below-average harvest is expected. Tharaka Farmers were actively ploughing and planting key crops such as green Nithi grams, sorghum, millet, maize and beans. Early planting, led to notable germination in the Mixed Farming zones of Mukothima and Nkondi. Kitui Most crops were at weeding stage while others were at leaf development stage. The condition of the crops was fair across the livelihood zones having faced water stress during the second week of December apart from Kitui Central, Kitui West and Kitui Rural Sub- counties, that by then continued receiving light showers (10 mm). Makueni Crops were at knee high and flowering stage and in fair condition. Farmers were mainly engaged in weeding activities to support crop growth. However, presence of fall army worm, spread of invasive weeds and poor rainfall distribution were among the factors hindering crop production across December. Embu Maize in the mixed farming zone was at tussling stage while in the marginal mixed farming zone it was at the second weeding stage with the condition being fair. Beans, green grams and cowpeas were all at the podding stage across both livelihood zones. The condition of legumes was equally fair. Agro- Kajiado Crop development was behind schedule. Beans were blooming while pastoral maize were 8-10 leaves compared to podding and tussling in that sequence normally. Delayed rainfall onset affected the planting period but generally the condition was good. Narok Rain-fed crops were in good condition and likely to retain their state up to maturity owing to the extremely high soil moisture during the month under review. Nyeri Maize was at knee high and beans were at flowering stage. The main on-farm activity taking place in December was first weeding. West In the Mixed Farming livelihood zone, maize crop was above knee Pokot high and in fair to poor condition. 1.4.1 Maize prices Increase in the price of maize was observed in estimated 61 percent of the counties while the price remained unchanged in about 30 percent of the areas (Table 8). The reported price increase was as a result of the dwindling household stocks hence increased demand (market over reliance) more so over the festive season, limited relief food distribution by humanitarian agencies and increased cost of transportation from the external source areas. However, the prevailing price over December was below the respective long-term average price for majority of the counties and that could be attributed to the previous good harvests and market injections through cross border imports. Table 8.0: Maize prices, December 2024 Above Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worse- LTA to LTA ning Garissa Turkana Baringo, Isiolo Garissa Isiolo Baringo, Marsabit Mandera Kilifi Samburu, Tana River Kajiado Mandera Samburu, Embu Marsabit Kwale Embu, Kajiado Wajir Tana River, Kwale Wajir Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Kilifi Turkana, Kitui Lamu Makueni, Narok Laikipia Makueni, Meru Nyeri, Taita Taveta Lamu Narok, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households During the period under review, a stable to improving trend in trekking distance for households was noted in about 82 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 9). The decrease in trekking distance could be ascribed to improved water availability through recharge of open water sources that were in close proximity to households across December. On the other hand, increase in distance in some counties like Isiolo, Baringo, Mandera and Wajir could be attributed to the high evaporation rate that resulted to drying up of some sources and depletion of harvested water due to early cessation of the short rains. Notably, the longest distance of 9.3 and 8.8 kilometres was recorded in Mandera and Wajir respectively among the Arid counties while Lamu and Kitui reported the longest distance of 5.6 and 4.5 kilometres accordingly among the semi-arid counties. Save for Wajir, Kitui, Nyeri and Tana River, the reported trekking distance across all the counties was below the respective long-term average. Lower than normal trekking distance was boosted by recharge of water facilities especially in December. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, December 2024 Wajir Mandera, Kwale Baringo, Samburu, Garissa, Baringo Kitui Turkana, Embu Kajiado, Meru Kilifi Kajiado Isiolo Nyeri Kilifi, Laikipia Taita Taveta Kwale, Lamu Marsabit Mandera Tana River Narok, Makueni Tharaka Nithi Makueni, Meru Tana River Embu Garissa, Isiolo West Pokot Nyeri Turkana, Kitui Narok Samburu, Lamu Marsabit Taita Taveta Laikipia Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Trekking distance to water source from grazing areas declined in about 48 percent of the counties over the subject reference period under analysis with stability being noted in 22 percent of the areas (Table 10). Decrease in trekking distance in the aforementioned areas could be attributed to forage regeneration and improved water availability following the recharge that took place. However, the negative trend in some counties was as a consequence of movement of livestock from sites near farmlands as crops matured and dwindling forage levels in sites adjacent to water sources. The longest return trekking distance of 16.4 kilometres was reported in Marsabit among the arid counties with Lamu equally recording the longest distance of 5.1 kilometres among the semi-arid counties. In reference to the usual trekking distance for the month of December, only Mandera and Kwale reported a distance that was outside the normal range. Recharge of water facilities over December period was the major factor that influenced the lower than usual trekking distance across the month under review. Table 10.0: Distance from Grazing area to Main Water Sources, December 2024 Mandera Samburu, Embu Baringo, Garissa Garissa, Lamu Samburu Baringo Kwale Makueni, Narok Isiolo, Turkana Turkana Kitui Isiolo West- Pokot Kajiado, Kilifi Tana River, Meru Mandera Marsabit, Nyeri Lamu, Taita Taveta Kwale, Narok Nyeri Marsabit Tana River Meru, Tharaka Kajiado, Kilifi West Pokot Wajir, Embu Wajir, Kitui Nithi Makueni Laikipia Laikipia Taita Taveta 1.6 Terms of trade Approximately 57 percent of the counties recorded stability in the terms of trade attributable to minimal shifts in the price of goat relative to the previous month (Table 11). Decline in terms of trade noted in some areas could be ascribed to the increase in price of maize witnessed over the subject month under review. The lowest terms of trade of 39.5 and 97 was reported in Turkana and Nyeri among the arid and semi-arid counties respectively and thus pastoral households in these counties remained disadvantaged due to the unfavorable terms of trade implying low purchasing power. Generally, the terms of trade recorded over the month under review were above the long- term average in all the counties. The observed scenario could be attributed to the maize prices that remained moderate and within the seasonal range coupled with the slightly elevated goat prices driven by the good body condition. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, December 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Garissa Isiolo Baringo, Mandera Mandera, Marsabit Kajiado Samburu Marsabit, Wajir Samburu, Tana River Laikipia Tana River Embu, West Pokot Turkana, Wajir, Embu Lamu Turkana Kwale, Makueni Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Meru Kilifi Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu Taita Taveta Kitui Makueni, Meru, Narok Narok Nyeri, Taita Taveta 1.7. Health and nutrition Nutrition situation remained stable in roughly 65 percent of the counties (Table 12). Notable factors cited for the observed trend included: good terms of trade that translated to improved access to diverse foods via the market and availability of milk, green vegetables and fruits at household level out of own production. The nutrition situation was however on a worsening trend in select counties such as Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit ascribed to inadequate and unbalanced food intake due to high poverty rates, and high disease prevalence. The reported malnutrition rates remained within the seasonal ranges in approximately 78 percent of the counties with the only exceptions being Baringo, Lamu, Meru, Mandera and Turkana. The positive situation could be attributed to availability of milk, expanded mass screening and medical outreaches. On the contrary, poor feeding and child care practices was driving the negative situation in the prior mentioned counties. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), December 2024 Above LTA A t LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Kajiado Isiolo, Samburu Samburu Garissa, Isiolo Baringo, Wajir Meru Tharaka- Tana River Tana River Turkana, Narok Mandera, Meru Lamu Nithi Wajir, Kilifi Kwale Kajiado, Kilifi Marsabit, Embu Mandera Garissa, Kwale, Laikipia Laikipia Kitui, Nyeri Lamu Turkana Embu Makueni Makueni Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Narok, Nyeri West Pokot Kitui Taita Taveta West Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, 20 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase while three Counties including Wajir, Mandera and Kilifi are at Alert drought phase as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, December 2024 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Tana River, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo, Marsabit Taita Taveta, Tharaka Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Kajiado, Lamu, Meru, Nithi Narok, Nyeri West Pokot Alert Kilifi Mandera, Wajir Alarm Emergency Recovery Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th December 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as at month as at values 24th 29th (3-month) November December 50 Vegetation greenness above 2024 2024 normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 80.31 71.25 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in December. Central 85.99 75.59 North 73.05 66.28 South 80.94 72.4 Ravine 84.32 77.22 Mogotio 86.09 79.88 Tiaty 79.42 68.31 Mandera County 73.35 48.7 The county and majority of its sub counties Lafey 78.45 54.2 recorded normal vegetation greenness in North 81.83 54.32 December. Lafey and Mandera North remained Banissa 61.46 46.52 stable at above normal vegetation greenness. West 67.68 42.69 South 74.52 47.81 East 68.37 39.55 Turkana County 76.24 72.66 The county recorded above normal vegetation East 66.91 57.61 greenness during the month under review. South 77.79 72.09 Loima 87.86 83.02 Central 83.62 74.92 West 84.13 84.59 North 67.02 66.7 Marsabit County 62.81 48.04 The county declined to normal vegetation Laisamis 64.18 47.5 greenness in December which is low when Moyale 52.62 41.89 compared to previous month of November. North Horr 64.05 49.9 Saku 73.41 48.27 Wajir County 57.03 34.15 The county declined at moderate vegetation deficit Tarbaj 66.43 37.97 in December. However, two sub counties Wajir North 71.16 48.02 (North and East) and Tarbaj recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Wajir West recorded the South 49.67 33.56 worst at severe vegetation deficit. West 45.49 19 Eldas 58.79 24.6 East 62.69 38.55 Samburu County 68.73 62.26 The County maintained stability with vegetation East 62.11 55.64 greenness levels remaining above normal North 72.95 66.42 throughout the month under review. West 81.28 75.02 Garissa County 49.91 49.31 The county and its two sub counties (Lagdera and Balambala 59.34 54.24 Dadaab) recorded Normal Vegetation greenness in Township 45.98 53.41 the month of December. Ijara 51.44 54.77 Fafi 44.99 52.25 Lagdera 58.51 42.34 Dadaab 45.88 39.29 Isiolo County 63.38 38.14 The County declined to normal vegetation North 63.48 31.86 greenness levels. While Isiolo North declined to moderate vegetation deficit. South 63.22 47.74 Tana River County 42.54 51.49 The county and all its sub counties improved to Bura 49.78 49.5 above normal vegetation greenness levels Galole 37.58 56.42 throughout the month of December. Bura recorded Garsen 39.49 50.11 normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado County 84.97 76.12 The county recorded stability in vegetation Central 87.05 79.55 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in East 87.42 69.2 the month of November. North 89.27 82.96 South 70.79 69.3 West 94.15 82.53 Laikipia County 76.8 66.08 The county recorded stability in vegetation East 57.53 57.8 greenness at above normal vegetation greenness North 81.18 66.57 during the month under review. West 77.9 69.17 Tharaka County 56.27 45.32 The county recorded above normal vegetation Nithi Chuka 73.32 56.94 greenness. Tharaka sub county recorded Normal Maara 72.63 62.07 vegetation greenness in the month under review. Tharaka 44.63 35.59 West Pokot County 81.14 74.01 The county recorded stability in vegetation Kacheliba 79.23 71.94 greenness in above normal vegetation greenness Kapenguria 82.57 76.57 during the month of December. Pokot south 91.62 83.68 Sigor 77.19 69.9 Embu County 74.65 60.33 The county and its sub counties recorded above Manyatta 79.62 65.66 normal vegetation greenness during the month Mbeere north 70.63 56.98 under review. Mbeere south 73.2 60.12 Runyenjes 83.65 62.67 County 55.99 57.28 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability Kitui central 79.31 60.73 in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation Kitui greenness during the month of December. Kitui east 52.36 57.06 Kitui rural 87.03 61.94 Kitui south 49.06 56.82 Kitui west 79.32 62.27 Mwingi central 56.64 56.99 Mwingi north 56.93 53.76 Mwingi west 83.53 68.94 County 80.06 66.91 The county recorded above normal vegetation Kaiti 101.13 82.67 greenness in December, which was stable when Makueni Kibwezi east 57.81 52.19 compared to previous month of November. Kibwezi west 72.8 65.9 Kilome 92.78 70.12 Makueni 94.42 75.63 Mbooni 105.84 80.59 County The county recorded above normal vegetation 73.16 59.5 greenness across the sub-counties during the month Meru Buuri 84.88 67.24 of December. Central Imenti 76.62 60.48 Igembe central 66.65 56.8 Igembe north 68 53.07 Igembe south 60.05 55.64 North Imenti 81.82 53.71 South Imenti 81.47 70.92 Tigania east 65.03 54.65 Tigania west 74.09 54.25 Nyeri County 81.42 72.29 The county remained stable recording above Kieni 81.61 71.28 normal vegetation greenness in December. Mathira 86.2 77.39 Mukurweini 74.28 70.13 Nyeri town 74.3 65.01 Othaya 80.09 74.14 Tetu 82.7 73.9 County 26.44 34.57 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in Kilifi Ganze 22.1 27.52 the month of December. Kaloleni, Ganze and Kilifi Kaloleni 32.43 31.03 south, recorded moderate vegetation deficit while Kilifi north 33.97 40.67 Kilifi North, Magarini and Malindi sub counties Kilifi south 35.95 25.89 recorded an improvement to normal vegetation Magarini 25.67 37.63 greenness. Malindi 30.33 40.27 Rabai 35.48 22.89 County 31.04 31.5 The vegetation condition index recorded was Kwale Kinango 26.09 28.16 moderate vegetation deficit in December which was Lunga Lunga 31.73 31.45 a stable when compared to last month. Kinango and Matuga 47.69 42.98 Lungalunga sub counties recorded moderate vegetation greenness while Msabweni and Matuga Msambweni 43.97 42.22 recorded normal vegetation greenness. County 57.06 54.59 The county recorded stability in vegetation Lamu east 71.04 60.42 condition at above normal vegetation greenness Lamu condition while Lamu West sub county recorded Normal vegetation greenness during the month of Lamu west 48.98 51.22 December. County 49.56 44.44 The county and two sub counties (Mwatate and Taita Taveta Mwatate 40.75 37.86 Voi) remained in Normal vegetation greenness Taveta 64.03 52.51 compared with the previous month of November. Voi 44.27 41.22 Wundanyi 70.12 64.6 County 76.98 79.01 The County remained at above normal vegetation Narok Emurua Dikirr 73.95 82.1 greenness in the month of December which was Kilgoris 70.22 71.36 stable when compared to the last month of Narok east 75.42 77.17 November. Narok north 65.14 69.89 Narok south 83.45 83.59 Narok west 83.76 83.58"
        },
        "DEWS_2020": {
            "February_2020.pdf": "February 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS January is normally a dry month across the Generally the October to December rainy season has arid and semi arid (ASAL) counties. This been favourable to crop production and the condition of year, however, the 2019 October-November- crops especially in the marginal agricultural counties is December (OND) short rains season which promising hence households expect to get a good usually terminates in December extended to harvest. In parts of the ASAL counties, farmers have January 2020. As a result, by the end of the already harvested beans, green grams and cowpeas month most ASAL counties had received while harvesting of maize, sorghum and millet was cumulative rainfall that was above their ongoing. January long term average. The nutrition status of children in most counties Return distances to water for households improved this month with 18 counties now on a stable have generally reduced in all the 23 ASAL or improving trend. This improvement was attributed to counties. Similarly, in nearly all ASAL higher milk consumption in pastoral counties and counties access to water for livestock is improved dietary diversity due to availability of green currently below the seasonal average. vegetables and pulses in the marginal agricultural Early onset of the October-November- December (OND) 2019 seasonal rainfall Following the good rains received since October 2019, coupled with the above normal rainfall environmental indicators in most ASAL counties have performance during the months of October to remained within the seasonal ranges and therefore, January has positively impacted on the currently all counties are categorized in the normal pasture and browse condition. This has drought phase, with the trend improving in 6 counties reduced distances covered between water and remaining stable in 17 counties. points and grazing fields which has resulted to improvement in overall livestock productivity including substantial increase in milk production. Drought phase classification, January 2020 Makueni, Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North) 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall During the October-November-December (OND) short rains season, most arid and semi arid (ASAL) counties recorded enhanced rainfall that was also fairly distributed both in time and space. Normally, January is a dry month but in 2020 most ASAL counties received rainfall that was above their January long term average. For instance, counties such as: Garissa, Kajiado, Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni and Kilifi received rainfall that exceeded 125 percent of their long term mean for January. Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late December 2019 with that in late January 2020. The good performance of the October-November-December (OND) 2019 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has led to significant rejuvenation of vegetation in the entire ASAL region. Therefore, as at end of January 2020 all arid and semi-arid counties were categorized in the above normal vegetation greenness band which is similar to the situation reported last month. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2019 and January 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) December 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) January 2020 Water sources The rainfall has been sufficient to recharge most of the open water sources, improving the quantity and quality of water and reducing distances and waiting time. For example, in Baringo County most water pans and dams are holding water amounts of between 70 and 80 percent of their full capacity, while in Marsabit 80 percent of all open water sources are fully recharged and in Kitui County pans and dams have also impounded water to above normal levels. In most ASAL counties, majority of the main water sources are likely to last for more than three months. Livestock production The October-November-December rains have positively impacted on the pasture and browse condition. This has reduced distances covered between water points and grazing fields which has resulted to improvement in overall livestock productivity including substantial increase in milk production. Pasture and browse condition Condition of pasture and browse in January in almost all the arid and semi-arid counties was good as depicted in Table 1. The observed state of pasture and browse in terms of both quantity and quality was above that normally experienced at such a time of the year in most ASAL areas and was attributed to the enhanced rainfall received in during the October to December rainfall season. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2020 Pasture Browse Turkana Kwale Laikipia Mandera Turkana Meru Tana River Baringo Garissa Tana River Baringo Embu Isiolo Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Lamu Laikipia Kwale Mandera Nyeri Makueni Wajir Marsabit Narok Marsabit Narok Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Nyeri Taita Taveta Embu Samburu Kitui West Pokot Wajir West Pokot Lamu Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition As presented in Table 2, livestock body condition has continued on an improving trend which is largely attributed to the increased availability of forage and water. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, January 2020 Cattle Goats Laikipia Turkana Kwale Laikipia Turkana Embu Lamu Marsabit Narok Tana River Baringo Tharaka Mandera Samburu Meru Lamu Garissa Isiolo Tana River Taita Taveta Embu Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Garissa Mandera Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Wajir Kilifi Kitui Marsabit Narok Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Nyeri West Pokot Wajir Samburu Kitui Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Meru Milk production Table 3 illustrates the trend in milk production in the 23 ASAL counties. Across the ASAL areas improvement in forage and water availability has led to enhanced livestock body condition consequently resulting to increased productivity. In Isiolo County, for example, the amount of milk produced per day per household increased by 32 percent to 3.7 litres in January from 2.8 litres in December. Likewise in Kajiado, average milk production per household per day rose by 25 percent from 2.4 litres in December to 3 litres in January while in Kilifi, Makueni, Kitui, Tana River and Narok average milk production increased by 25, 23, 18, 14 and 12 percent respectively. However, milk production fell in a few counties such as Turkana, Kwale, Meru and Taita Taveta. For instance, in Turkana, average milk production per household per day reduced by 10 percent from 2.1 litres in December to 1.9 litres in January. All the same, the amount of milk produced during the month under analysis was above the five-year average by 12 percent which was accredited to availability of browse and pasture that was also easily accessible to livestock coupled with the good calving rate recorded in January. Table 3.0: Milk production, January 2020 Milk Garissa Kajiado Baringo Isiolo Baringo Kwale Production Isiolo Kilifi Embu Kajiado Marsabit Meru Laikipia Kwale Kitui Kilifi Embu Taita Taveta Lamu Narok Makueni Kitui Garissa Turkana Mandera Samburu Meru Laikipia Nyeri Marsabit Taita Taveta Lamu Wajir Nyeri Tana River Makueni West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Mandera Turkana Narok Wajir Samburu West Pokot Tana River Cattle prices As shown Table 4, enhanced market prices continued to be observed in cattle prices driven by improved livestock body condition as a result of good availability of forage and water. For example, in Samburu County the current average price for cattle was above the 2016 - 2018 average by 24 percent, similar to Mandera where average cattle prices increased by 13 percent to Kshs 20,500 in January from Kshs 18,100 in December. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, January 2020 Cattle Marsabit Meru Kitui Embu Baringo Isiolo Marsabit Prices Taita Taveta Nyeri Turkana Tana River Embu Kajiado Turkana Laikipia Wajir Isiolo Kitui Wajir West Pokot Lamu Kilifi Lamu Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Narok Mandera Makueni Meru Nyeri Samburu Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in January in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month under review goat prices in nealy all ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA. The above average prices for goats was attributed to their good body condition. For example, in Kajiado County the average price of a two-year old goat in January was Kshs 4,660 which was 36 percent above the three-year average price of Kshs 3,430. Table 5.0: Goat prices, January 2020 Goat Turkana Kwale Marsabit Tana River Tana River Baringo Kitui Prices Samburu Nyeri Mandera Meru Turkana Kwale Marsabit Laikipia Wajir Kitui Embu Meru Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Taita Taveta West Pokot Lamu Wajir Mandera West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Makueni Tharaka Lamu Narok Embu Makueni Tharaka Nithi Narok Samburu Generally the October to December rainy season has been favourable to crop production and the condition of crops especially in the marginal agricultural counties is promising hence households expect to get a good harvest. For instance, in Embu (Mbeere) farmers have already harvested beans, green grams and cowpeas while harvesting of maize, sorghum and millet was ongoing. In Kitui crops are in good condition and harvesting of maize, cowpeas, beans, pigeon peas and green grams has started. Similarly in Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka maize, cowpeas, beans, pigeon peas and green grams were at the physiological maturity stage and harvesting was ongoing. In January 2020, Desert Locust infestations were reported in a number of the arid and semi-arid counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Samburu, Baringo, Meru, Laikipia, Embu, Kitui and Tharaka Nithi. The infestation poses a substantial risk to food security and livelihoods of the ASAL communities who are mainly pastoralists and stallholder farmers. Maize prices Maize price trends in the ASAL counties are demonstrated in Table 6. In close to 70 percent of the counties, maize prices recorded in January were higher than usual compared with the 2016 - 2018 average. The high average maize price is attributed to poor crop harvest in the previous season which has led to limited maize stocks at household level and consequently creating a high demand of the maize in the local markets. Table 6.0: Maize prices, January 2020 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Mandera Garissa Baringo Kwale Embu Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Prices Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Laikipia Makueni Lamu Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Samburu Turkana Tharaka Makueni Narok Kitui Marsabit Meru Wajir Samburu Lamu Nyeri Kwale Tana River Narok Taita Taveta Embu Turkana Nyeri West Pokot Tana River Meru Wajir Tharaka Taita Taveta West Pokot Access to water Return distances to water for both households and livestock was largely favourable as most parts of the ASAL region continued to receive significant amounts of rainfall. For instance, in Garissa, the average return distance from household to water sources reduced from 4.2 km in December to 3.2 km in January, while in Narok the average distance for households declined by 10 percent from 1.7 to 1.5 km. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2020 Distance from Kwale Taita Baringo, Isiolo, Samburu Taita Taveta Kitui, Kwale, households to Taveta Kitui, Samburu, Narok West Pokot Embu (Mbeere), main water Laikipia, Lamu, Garissa Nyeri (Kieni) Kilifi, Laikipia, sources Tana River, Kajiado Makueni, Meru Garissa, Makueni, (Meru North), Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Tharaka West Pokot, Meru Nithi (Tharaka), (Meru North), Tana River, Isiolo, Narok, Kajiado, Marsabit, Kilifi, Nyeri Turkana, Baringo, (Kieni), Turkana, Lamu, Mandera Wajir, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Embu (Mbeere) Table 8 shows the trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water. Average return distances to water for livestock in many areas reduced in January as a result of the off season rains received during the month. In most ASAL counties access to water for livestock was below the seasonal average. For example, compared to the long term average trekking distance for the month of January the current average distance for livestock in Marsabit was shorter by 62 percent. Also in Kajiado County, the average trekking distance to water points for livestock of 4.6 km was 43 percent shorter than the normal distance of 8 km. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, January 2020 Distance from Kwale Meru Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Garissa Baringo Embu, Isiolo, livestock Kitui, Laikipia, Narok Kajiado Kitui, Lamu, grazing areas Lamu, Makueni, Taita Taveta Kilifi Makueni, to main water Marsabit, Nyeri, Laikipia Mandera, sources Narok, Samburu, Makueni Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana Samburu Meru, Narok, River, Turkana, Turkana Nyeri, Tana Wajir, West Pokot, West Pokot River , Wajir Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Mandera, Terms of trade In almost 80 percent of the ASAL counties the terms of trade (ToT) improved or remained stable in January 2020. An indication that households could obtain more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat than they did during the previous month The lagest improvements were in Taita Taveta, Nyeri and Tharaka, where terms of trade appreciated by 61, 32 and 26 percent respectively. In 17 counties, the current ToT were above or close to the long term average for the month implying a favourable situation for livestock producers. In most counties the improvement in ToT is generally a reflection of rising goat prices. Table 9 summarizes the movements of ToT on the previous month and the trend. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, January 2020 Terms of trade Baringo, Embu, Kwale Kilifi Embu Baringo, Wajir, Isiolo (ToT) Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu Kitui Garissa Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu Kajiado, Laikipia, Taita Taveta Lamu Kitui Laikipia , Meru Marsabit Mandera, Marsabit Tharaka Makueni Kwale Narok, Turkana Samburu Narok, Nyeri, Meru Mandera West Pokot Turkana, Wajir, Nyeri Tana River Tana River Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Nithi The bulletins monitor the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement. The nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 18 counties now on a stable or improving trend. This improvement was attributed to higher milk consumption in pastoral counties and improved dietary diversity due to availability of green vegetables and pulses in the marginal agricultural counties. Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2020 MUAC Makueni Mandera Baringo, Embu, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir Kilifi Lamu Kitui Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Tharaka Makueni Samburu Kajiado Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Narok, Marsabit Samburu Tana River Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Laikipia Kilifi Tharaka Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Turkana, West Pokot Lamu Baringo Meru Turkana, Wajir, West Kajiado Pokot Kitui 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. Following the good rains received since October 2019, environmental indicators in most ASAL counties have remained within the seasonal ranges and therefore, currently all counties are categorized in the normal drought phase, with the trend improving in 6 counties and remaining stable in 17 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, January 2020 Makueni, Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North) 2 Projected food security situation The rains received during the period from October to January is likely to sustain good conditions of pasture and browse which in turn is expected to maintain good body condition for livestock thus improved productivity. Livestock body condition is expected to remain good to fair in the next three months due to the current good quantity and quality of browse and pasture in nearly all ASAL counties. Market prices both for livestock and food commodities are likely to remain stable which will most probably translate to favourable terms of trade for livestock keepers. Owing to the expected good livestock body condition and stable calving rates, households will be able to produce and consume more milk which is likely to keep malnutrition rates in children at low levels. Desert locust infestation which is currently being experienced in the ASAL areas is likely to result in damage to browse and pasture and might also impact negatively on the late planted crops. Although, so far the effects of the desert locust invasion on both livestock and crop production has been minimal. 3 Recommendations Agriculture Considering the ongoing desert locust infestation, both county and national governments should enhance measures to control the pest. Promotion of rain water harvesting technologies for crop production. Provision of farm inputs such as subsidized fertilizer and certified seeds in preparation for the MAM season Promotion of appropriate post-harvest management practices. Livestock Promote pasture conservation including deferred grazing management in order to avoid quick destruction and depletion of the available pasture hence enable pastoralists to use it for a longer period. Conduct livestock vaccination campaigns and other disease control interventions Water Rehabilitation of water catchments Repair and desilting of dams and water pans Intensify health promotion campaigns Community sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th January 2020 BARINGO County 86.29 92.75 Following some rains received in October, November, December and January the Central 83.91 84.31 vegetation greenness in all sub-counties is above normal. Eldama 75.15 74.7 Mogotio 91.3 95.62 North 80.15 84.29 South 86.31 91.12 Tiaty 89.9 100.86 MANDERA County 90.4 91.27 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Banissa 86.89 91.19 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. M East 85.37 82.88 Lafey 90.56 91.41 M North 92.73 98.51 M South 91.35 90.27 M West 90.42 86.97 TURKANA County 90.48 92.39 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T Central 91.13 99.24 T. East 71.2 78.36 T. Loima 108.15 119.49 T. North 85.7 81.83 T. South 84.41 101.46 T. West 102.6 91.49 MARSABIT County 82.13 88.3 T he vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Laisaimis 86.43 92.17 Moyale 89.84 91.47 N. Horr 76.71 84.73 Saku 101.15 99.15 WAJIR County 78.82 83.15 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. W East 94.32 93.85 W.Eldas 75.18 71.64 W. North 95.64 92.8 W. South 68.44 77.63 W.Tarbaj 92.03 86.49 W West 67.41 86.52 SAMBURU County 74.9 85.6 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S East 72.4 81.93 S. North 76.79 88.1 S. West 78.64 91.79 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category as at 30th month as (3-month) Dec at 27th 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2019 Jan 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 2020 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit GARISSA County 69.73 74.31 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 63.11 75.61 Daadab 57.85 66.33 Fafi 75.85 72.39 Ijara 83.06 86.57 Lagdera 55.32 73.02 Dujis 72.52 60.7 ISIOLO County 70.41 84.17 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation I. North 73.87 85.68 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. South 65.11 81.85 TANA County 81.27 89.64 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 65.61 73.39 Galole 82.24 95 Garsen 93.95 100.09 KAJIADO County 81.8 90.72 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 76.63 85.6 K. East 85.33 85.94 K. North 63.43 71.56 K. South 93.99 97.92 K. West 73.72 90.28 LAIKIPIA County 80.93 87 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation L. East 84.28 87.08 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. L. North 81.05 89.06 L. West 79.11 83.11 THARAKA County 63.02 70.52 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chuka 69.96 70.25 Maara 62.23 64.86 Tharaka 60.65 72.43 WEST County 84.79 89.8 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 85.28 90.72 Kapenguria 88.1 92.23 Pokot South 84.09 89.57 Sigor 81.52 86.23 EMBU County 77.89 78.74 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 56.73 68.91 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 77.31 78.62 Mbeere South 87.25 84.22 Runyenjes 68.24 69.58 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT County 71.29 80.84 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. KITUI Kitui Central 88.81 84.75 Kitui East 72 82.95 Mwingi Central 78.45 83.96 Mwingi North 67.26 77.28 Mwingi West 89.18 85.2 Kitui Rural 90.11 85.93 Kitui South 64 78.72 Kitui West 92.81 86.42 County 91.94 86.62 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. MAKUENI Kaiti 100.66 96.52 Kibwezi East 75.45 76.03 Kibwezi West 89.91 83.76 Kilome 105.15 98.38 Makueni 106.77 94.46 Mbooni 97.03 91.28 County 74.07 77.97 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 70.34 74.71 Central Imenti 68.34 72.23 Igembe Central 81.56 85.45 Igembe North 81.39 86.14 Igembe South 80.34 84.31 North Imenti 68.28 65.63 South Imenti 62.1 65.42 Tigania East 72.3 77.95 Tigania West 74.78 76.5 County 70 73.13 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. NYERI Kieni 71.45 72.46 Mathira 61.1 58.14 Mukurweini 75.5 88.36 Town 82.85 90.02 Othaya 67.96 79.05 Tetu 65.75 73.9 County 82.73 86.32 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation KILIFI Ganze 83.69 85.55 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kaloleni 82.85 85.52 Magarini 85.91 87.66 Malindi 75.27 81.07 Kilifi-North 77.34 82.25 Rabai 78.33 85.77 Kilifi-South 81.52 86.2 KWALE County 85.02 89.34 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 86.49 89.67 Lungalunga 88.08 91.33 Matuga 77.03 86.23 Msambweni 73.21 83.7 LAMU County 85.53 87.73 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 80.42 84.72 Lamu West 88.48 89.47 TAITA County 98.4 93.74 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. TAVETA Mwatate 97.07 98.28 Taveta 107.18 96.23 Voi 94.66 91.19 Wundanyi 103.52 95.92 County 72.12 81.27 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Narok-East 84.15 91 NAROK Emurua Dikirr 86.96 89.49 Kilgoris 68.8 77.31 Narok-North 63.37 74.11 Narok-South 73.69 81.73 Narok-West 70.94 81.92 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT 5. RECOVERY fluctuate outside expected return to seasonal norms 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and production All indicators are outside indicators fluctuate outside normal ranges",
            "January_2020'.pdf": "January 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS During the month of December 2019, most The positive trend was attributed to the impact of the ASAL areas received enhanced rainfall enhanced rainfall received during the October - that was also well distributed both in time December season that has recharged water pans, and space. By the end of December, nearly dams, natural ponds and other surface water sources all counties had recorded more than 100 with adequate water hence improving water access percent of their long term average (LTA) for both domestic and livestock use, to a great extent. rainfall for the month indicating that most ASAL areas had received above normal Generally, the trend in the proportion of children at rainfall. risk of malnutrition by mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) of less than 135 mm across the ASAL The ongoing October to December counties is improving or stable implying that the seasonal rains have resulted in improved prevalence of malnutrition among children aged 6 pasture and browse condition and has also 59 months has reduced in comparison with last replenished most surface water sources in month. In addition, average MUAC rate in 15 the ASAL counties. As a result, the current counties is either close to the long term average state of pasture and browse in terms of both (LTA) or has fallen below LTA indicating that the quantity and quality is above that normally nutritional status of children aged below five years in experienced at this period of the year in these counties is currently better than would be most ASAL areas. expected at this time of the year. Return distances to water for households As a result of the above average rainfall performance have generally reduced in all the 23 ASAL recorded during the month of December , all the 23 counties. ASAL counties are now categorized in the normal drought phase, compared with 21 counties in the normal phase and two in recovery in November 2019. Drought phase classification, December 2019 Marsabit, Tana River, Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Wajir, Tharaka Nithi Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Makueni, (Tharaka) Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall In December 2019, most ASAL areas received enhanced rainfall that was also fairly well distributed both in time and space. By the end of December, nearly all counties had recorded more than 100 percent of their long term average (LTA) rainfall for the month indicating that most ASAL areas had received above normal rainfall. For example, during the month of December, Lodwar Town in Turkana County, recorded rainfall that was above 200 percent of the normal rainfall for the month. In Marsabit, Moyale and Saku sub-counties received enhanced rains, which were above average, parts of Laisamis sub-county received torrential rains while areas in Illeret, Dukana and TurbiBubisa wards in North Horr sub-county received slightly enhanced rains. Rainfall amounts received in Kwale county, were above-normal in all the three dekads since 39.5 mm, 36 mm and 64.7 mm of rainfall were received in dekads one, two and three in comparison with an LTA of 33.6 mm, 23.4 mm and 24.8 mm respectively. The ongoing October to December seasonal rains have resulted in improved pasture and browse condition and has also replenished most surface water sources in the ASAL counties. Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in November 2019 with that in December 2019. The maps show that vegetation greenness is on an improving trend compared to November 2019 and it further illustrates that the condition of vegetation in all ASAL counties is within normal and above normal ranges for the period. The high vegetation regeneration witnessed during the month under review is attributed to the good performance of the October - November - December (OND) 2019 seasonal rainfall. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2019 and December 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) November 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) December 2019 Water sources The enhanced rainfall experienced since beginning of October has recharged most open water sources and hence the most relied upon sources of water for both domestic and livestock use in December were pans, dams, shallow wells and rivers. Across the ASAL counties, most surface water sources are recharged to between 75 and 100 percent of their full capacity and the available water is likely to last for at least three months. For example, in Samburu County, traditional river wells accounted for approximately 58 percent of usage by households followed by pans and dams at 22.6 percent. Other water sources used by households during the month under review were springs at 9.7 percent, while the proportion that depended on boreholes and rivers was 6.5 and 3.2 percent respectively. In all counties, the current water situation is above normal compared to the similar period at this time of the year. Livestock production Most ASAL areas recorded an improvement in livestock productivity in December which was attributed to good pasture and browse condition and reduced trekking distances to water sources. Pasture and browse condition Condition of pasture and browse in December in all the arid and semi-arid counties was good as depicted in Table 1. The observed state of pasture and browse in terms of both quantity and quality was above that normally experienced at such a time of the year in most ASAL areas and was attributed to the enhanced rainfall received in December compounded by the cumulative effect of the rains received in October and November. However, in Turkana County, pasture situation was classified as fair owing to the poor performance of rains in parts of the county especially in some pockets in Turkana North. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, December 2019 Pasture Browse P oor Fair Good P oor F air Good Turkana Tana River Wajir Turkana Makueni Tharaka Nithi Nyeri (Kieni) Mandera Marsabit West Pokot Embu (Mbeere) Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Lamu Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Mandera Marsabit Baringo Garissa Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Kwale Laikipia Tana River Wajir Narok Meru (Meru North) Tharaka Nithi Lamu Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Embu (Mbeere) Meru (Meru North) Livestock body condition In all counties, livestock body condition has improved compared to last month due to rise in availability of good forage combined with reduced livestock trekking distances. As presented in Table 2, during the month under review, all ASAL counties reported that body condition for cattle and goats was good and on an improving trend. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, December 2019 Cattle Goats P oor F air Good P oor F air Good Baringo Embu Kitui West Pokot Wajir Makueni Garissa Isiolo Lamu Taita Taveta Nyeri Mandera Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Turkana Kwale Marsabit Narok Meru Baringo Embu Kitui Samburu Turkana Kwale Garissa Isiolo Lamu West Pokot Wajir Makueni Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Taita Taveta Nyeri Mandera Marsabit Narok Meru Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tana River Tharaka Nithi Milk production Table 1 illustrates the trend in milk production in the 23 ASAL counties. Across the ASAL areas improvement in forage and water availability has led to enhanced livestock body condition consequently resulting to increased productivity. In Turkana County, for instance, the amount of milk produced per day per household increased by 25 percent to 2.5 litres in December from 2 litres in November. In Samburu, average milk production per household per day rose by 17 percent from 1.2 litres in November to 1.4 litres in December while in Embu (Mbeere), Kitui, Isiolo, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) and Kajiado average milk production increased by 33, 22, 17, 15 and 14 percent respectively. However, milk production in some ASAL areas declined in December. In Baringo, for example, the average household milk production recorded in December was lower than the level attained in November by 15 percent while in Lamu milk production per household fell by 18 percent from 1.7 litres in November to 1.4 litres in December. The decrease in milk production in Baringo was attributed to the displacement of households in the irrigated livelihood zone due to floods while in Lamu the drop in milk production was associated to the deterioration of forage condition in the grazing areas as a result of flooding. Table 3.0: Milk production, December 2019 Milk Garissa Kwale Baringo Embu Makueni Baringo Production Isiolo Laikipia Embu Garissa Meru Kilifi Mandera Narok Kajiado Isiolo Narok Kwale Marsabit Taita Taveta Kilifi Kajiado Taita Taveta Lamu Meru Tana River Kitui Kitui Tana River Nyeri Turkana Lamu Mandera Wajir Tharaka Nithi Makueni Marsabit West Pokot Wajir Samburu Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Cattle prices Improved cattle body condition which was credited to availability of adequate pasture and water in close proximity to the grazing areas combined with the effects of high demand and low supply of cattle offered for sale as most livestock keepers were holding their livestock were the major drivers of the higher cattle prices recorded in December. Consequently, in majority of the ASAL counties cattle prices have improved or have remained stable. For example, in Kajiado, Isiolo, Wajir, Marsabit and Makueni the current prices for cattle are above the prices normally reported for the same period (LTA) by 63, 57, 52, 25 and 23 percent respectively. However, in three ASAL counties: Embu (Mbeere), Kitui and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) the situation has not returned to normal fully and hence the current cattle prices are lower than the three-year average price for the month as shown Table 4. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, December 2019 Cattle Taita Taveta Nyeri Laikipia Embu Isiolo Baringo Prices Tana River Wajir Meru Kitui Kitui Embu West Pokot Lamu Tharaka Makueni Kajiado Baringo Isiolo Mandera Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Laikipia Mandera Makueni Samburu Lamu Turkana Marsabit Tana river Meru Samburu Narok Tharaka Nithi Narok Turkana Nyeri Wajir Taita Taveta Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in December in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month of December goat prices in approximately 90 percent of the ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA. The above average prices for goats was attributed to their good body condition and better prices offered during the December festive season. Conversely, in three counties: Mandera, Kilifi and Turkana goat prices were below the three-year average due to market forces of supply and demand occasioned by the high volumes of small stock offered for sale. Table 5.0: Goat prices, December 2019 Goat Baringo Meru Mandera Embu Baringo Kilifi Prices Embu Nyeri Kilifi Garissa Kajiado Turkana Garissa Tana River Turkana Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Wajir Laikipia Mandera Kitui Lamu Kwale Lamu Makueni Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Tana River Kwale Samburu Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Wajir Kajiado West Pokot Narok Taita Taveta All ASAL counties received average to above average rainfall during the October to December (OND) short rains season resulting in overall favourable crop conditions. In the marginal agricultural counties like Makueni, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni), Kitui, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Meru (Meru North) and Taita Taveta the main crops grown which include maize, beans, millet, sorghum, cow peas, green grams are performing well and were reported to be at tussling, flowering and podding stages with some of the early planted crops approaching maturity and harvesting stage. The heavy rains, however, has significantly reduced crop production prospects in the low lying and riverine areas in some ASAL areas like Kitui, Taita Taveta, Embu (Mbeere), Tana River, Garissa, Kilifi and Nyeri (Kieni). Limited cases of fall army worm (FAW) infestation were reported in Kitui, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni) and Taita Taveta but so far the effect of FAW in these counties has not been substantial to affect production. Maize prices Maize price trends in the ASAL counties are demonstrated in Table 6. In about 80 percent of the counties, maize prices recorded in December were higher than usual compared with the 2016 - 2018 average. The high average maize price is attributed to poor crop harvest in the previous season which has led to limited maize stocks at household level and consequently creating a high demand of the maize in the local markets. For instance, in Lamu County, the retail price of a kilogram of maize was Kshs 73, which was 83 percent above the 2016 - 2018 average. In Meru, a kilogram of maize was retailing at Kshs 45 repersenting a 63 percent margin above Kshs 27 in the three year average while in Tana River a kilogram of maize was retailing at Kshs 66 which was 57 percent above LTA. Table 6.0: Maize prices, December 2019 Maize Embu Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Tana River Baringo Makueni Kwale Prices Kilifi Garissa Marsabit Turkana Lamu Wajir Tharaka Mandera Laikipia Makueni Wajir Narok Embu Kajiado Marsabit Mandera Meru Nyeri Laikipia Kitui Turkana Taita Taveta Nyeri Samburu Garissa West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Kwale Isiolo Kilifi Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Meru West Pokot Lamu Tana River Kitui Access to water Table 7 shows the trend in distances walked by households to access water. Return distances to water for households have generally reduced in all the 23 ASAL counties. The positive trend was attributed to the impact of the enhanced rainfall received during the October - December season that has recharged water pans, dams, natural ponds and other surface water sources with adequate water hence improving water access for both domestic and livestock use, to a great extent. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, December 2019 Distance from Kwale Kajiado Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Embu Baringo households to Garissa Kilifi Kitui, Samburu, (Mbeere), Kajiado, Lamu main water Laikipia, Lamu, Tana Kilifi, Laikipia, Mandera sources River, Makueni, Makueni, Meru Samburu Mandera, Marsabit, (Meru North), Narok, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Meru Wajir, Nyeri (Kieni), Turkana (Meru North), Narok, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Nyeri (Kieni), Taita (Tharaka), Tana Taveta, Turkana, River, Garissa, Wajir, Tharaka Nithi Isiolo, Marsabit (Tharaka), Embu (Mbeere) In all the ASAL counties, largely as a result of the recharge of most water sources, the trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources have decreased or remained unchanged in December. Similarly, the recorded trekking distances for the month under review were significantly lower than the five year average distances walked by livestock to reach water points for the period. For instance, the average distance to water sources from grazing areas, in Isiolo County decreased by a margin of 33 percent from 1.5 km in November to 1 km in December. In Mandera, average trekking distance from the main water sources to grazing areas for livestock decreased from 5 km in November to 3 km in December and was significantly lower than the five year average distances for the period by 75 percent and in Kitui, average return distances from grazing areas to watering points declined by 30 percent to stand at 2.6 km in December from 3.7 km in November which is also below the long term mean of 3.9 km by 33 percent. The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trend in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. Overall, in about 70 percent of the counties, livestock keepers were able to purchase additional quantities of maize from the sale of a goat in the month of December compared to the previous month. The increase in ToT was attributed to a rise in goat prices as a result of greater demand for goats during the festival season and the good body condition of goats. For example, in Marsabit County a household could buy 102 kg of maize from the sale of one goat compared to 82 kg in November. The amount of maize that could be purchased by households in Marsabit was 23 percent higher than the three year average for the month. In Wajir, proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase 72 kg of maize compared to 63 kg in November an increase by 14 percent while in Narok County households could currently purchase 86 kg of maize which when compared with the 2016 - 2018 LTA of 63 kg translates to an additional 23 kg maize. However, in Baringo, the terms of trade exhibited a downward trend in December because the proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase 66 kg of maize in December compared with 70 kg in November. Similarly, in Lamu County the ToT for December decreased by 29 percent from 102 kg of maize in November to 72 kg in December. The decrease in the ToT in these counties was attributed to a fall in goat prices while the price of maize increased. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, December 2019 Terms of trade Garissa Baringo Kitui Mandera Isiolo Tana River Baringo (ToT) Marsabit Embu Kwale Makueni Kwale Kajiado Lamu Turkana Isiolo Laikipia Samburu Meru Kilifi Wajir Kilifi Meru Turkana Wajir Kitui Narok Makueni Lamu Laikipia Embu Narok Kajiado West Pokot Mandera Garissa Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Tana River Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. Generally, the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition by mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) of less than 135 mm across the ASAL counties is improving or stable implying that the prevalence of malnutrition among children aged 6 59 months has reduced in comparison with last month. In addition, average MUAC rate in 15 counties is either close to the long term average (LTA) or has fallen below LTA indicating that the nutritional status of children aged below five years in these counties is currently better than would be expected at this time of the year. Improvement in the nutritional status among the under-fives was attributed to increase in milk consumption at the household level, favourable terms of trade and enhanced dietary diversity across the ASAL counties. However, eight counties: Tana River, Kwale, Mandera, Kitui, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Wajir, Meru (Meru North) and Lamu reported a higher percentage of children at risk of malnutrition than the December long term mean. The most likely cause of malnutrition in these counties could be poor infant and young children feeding practices, inadequate food intake, poor dietary diversity and disease incidences. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), December 2019 MUAC Kitui Nyeri Embu (Mbeere) Baringo Embu Meru Narok Kwale Garissa Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Lamu Samburu West Pokot Kajiado Makueni Turkana Mandera Turkana Makueni Kilifi Marsabit Meru Marsabit Kitui Kwale Wajir Baringo Lamu Mandera Tana River Laikipia Samburu Wajir Tharaka Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Narok Tana River Kilifi West Pokot Isiolo Taita Taveta Laikipia 1.2 Drought phase classification Currently all the 23 ASAL counties are categorized in the normal drought phase, compared with 21 counties in the normal phase and two in recovery in November 2019. The improving trend is attributed to the above average rainfall performance observed during the month of December. Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, December 2019 Marsabit, Tana River, Wajir, Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, T haraka Nithi (Tharaka) Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Makueni, Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), 2.0 Projected food security situation According to weather outlook for January 2020 from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), most ASAL areas are expected to receive occasional rainfall during the first half of January. The continuation of the rains into January is likely to impact positively on both water and forage availability and accessibility, hence will further enhance improvement in livestock condition and productivity. Increased availability of milk and other food commodities is likely to support reduction in prevalence of malnutrition in children. Market operations are likely to remain vibrant with maize prices projected to remain stable. Consequently, terms of trade are likely to remain favourable supporting access to staple food commodities for households in the next month. 3.0 Recommendations Agriculture Sector Urgent action required to enhance surveillance and control operations against invasion of desert locusts and fall army worms Post-harvest management training for farmers and agro pastoralists who are set to harvest the short rain season crop Livestock Sector Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Promote pasture establishment and conservation including deferred grazing management and participatory rangeland management. Intensify efforts towards establishment of strategic hay reserves and stock piling of hay so as to promote availability of livestock feeds for utilization during the dry seasonperiods of drought. Water Sector Promotion of water harvesting and storage. Rehabilitation of water catchments, repair and maintenance of water points. Health and Nutrition Sector Provision of health education to communities on hygiene and sanitation and expansion of health and nutrition interventions to cover areas that have reported high disease and malnutrition cases. Sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources Support Vitamin A supplementation and de-worming programmes Education Sector Promotion of water harvesting, storage and management in schools. Enhance Home Grown School Meals Programmes (HGSMP) in schools. Peace Building and Conflict Management Peace building and conflict management initiatives. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) as at 30thDecember 2019 BARINGO County 80.11 86.29 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Central 85 83.91 performance of the 2019 short rains. Eldama 75.17 75.15 Mogotio 82.57 91.3 North 77.06 80.15 South 82.35 86.31 Tiaty 79.99 89.9 MANDERA County 73.23 90.4 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Banissa 60.85 86.89 performance of the 2019 short rains. M East 75.14 85.37 Lafey 75.03 90.56 M North 66.53 92.73 M South 80.56 91.35 M West 78.15 90.42 TURKANA County 76.11 90.48 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good T Central 79.1 91.13 performance of the 2019 short rains. T. East 62.46 71.2 T. Loima 82.87 108.15 T. North 71.94 85.7 T. South 66.72 84.41 T. West 91.27 102.6 MARSABIT County 60.81 82.13 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Laisaimis 61.27 86.43 performance of the 2019 short rains. Moyale 67.29 89.84 N. Horr 57.79 76.71 Saku 81.2 101.15 WAJIR County 60.65 78.82 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good W East 83.51 94.32 performance of the 2019 short rains. Significant improvement observed during month of December 2019. W. Eldas 62.53 75.18 W. North 87.14 95.64 W. South 43.53 68.44 W. Tarbaj 83.2 92.03 W West 37.78 67.41 SAMBURU County 54.98 74.9 S. East 48.3 72.4 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good S. North 58.56 76.79 S. West 70.01 78.64 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category as at 25th month as (3-month) Nov at 30th 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2019 Dec 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 2019 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit GARISSA County 54.52 69.73 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Improvement noted across the sub counties. Balambala 42.28 63.11 Daadab 37.52 57.85 Fafi 67.06 75.85 Ijara 69.22 83.06 Lagdera 30.23 55.32 Dujis 74.82 72.52 ISIOLO County 42.49 70.41 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good I. North 43.32 73.87 performance of the 2019 short rains. Significant improvement noted across the sub counties. I. South 41.22 65.11 TANA County 60.49 81.27 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good RIVER Bura 48.63 65.61 performance of the 2019 short rains. Significant improvement noted across the sub counties Galole 60.65 82.24 Garsen 70.46 93.95 KAJIADO County 64.96 81.8 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good K. Central 59.31 76.63 K. East 74.69 85.33 K. North 60.55 63.43 K. South 69.83 93.99 K. West 60.1 73.72 LAIKIPIA County 75.6 80.93 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good L. East 74.32 84.28 L. North 71.7 81.05 L. West 83.53 79.11 THARAKA County 47.16 63.02 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good NITHI performance of the 2019 short rains. Chuka 61.59 69.96 Maara 57.46 62.23 Tharaka 38..43 60.65 WEST County 78.63 84.79 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good POKOT performance of the 2019 short rains. Kacheliba 79.44 85.28 Kapenguria 85.39 88.1 Pokot South 77.46 84.09 Sigor 72.12 81.52 EMBU County 67.33 77.89 Manyatta 54.72 56.73 Mbeere North 67.28 77.31 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Mbeere South 72.89 87.25 performance of the 2019 short rains. Runyenjes 60.95 68.24 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT KITUI County 50.6 71.29 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Kitui Central 81.39 88.81 Kitui East 51.91 72 Mwingi Central 57.9 78.45 Mwingi North 50.1 67.26 Mwingi West 77.51 89.18 Kitui Rural 74.61 90.11 Kitui South 38.63 64 Kitui West 82.59 92.81 County 76.36 91.94 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good MAKUENI performance of the 2019 short rains.. Kaiti 83.59 100.66 Kibwezi East 56.64 75.45 Kibwezi West 75.05 89.91 Kilome 91.77 105.15 Makueni 90.63 106.77 Mbooni 87.16 97.03 County 61.77 74.07 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good MERU Buuri 69.14 70.34 Central Imenti 62.04 68.34 Igembe Central 62.88 81.56 Igembe North 62.27 81.39 Igembe South 59.51 80.34 North Imenti 67.17 68.28 South Imenti 61.03 62.1 Tigania East 56.46 72.3 Tigania West 61.46 74.78 County 66.79 70 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Kieni 65.93 71.45 Mathira 68.35 61.1 NYERI Mukurweini 75.07 75.5 Town 75.08 82.85 Othaya 61.45 67.96 Tetu 66.06 65.75 KILIFI County 66.91 82.73 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Ganze 64.57 83.69 Kaloleni 68.44 82.85 Magarini 67.41 85.91 Malindi 59.64 75.27 Kilifi-North 71.39 77.34 Rabai 65.24 78.33 Kilifi-South 75.72 81.52 KWALE County 66.81 85.02 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Kinango 64.46 86.49 Lungalunga 70.19 88.08 Matuga 69.89 77.03 Msambweni 70.67 73.21 County 76.97 85.53 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good LAMU performance of the 2019 short rains. Lamu East 88.68 80.42 Lamu West 81.03 88.48 TAITA County 77.08 98.4 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good TAVETA Mwatate 71.5 97.07 Taveta 95.94 107.18 Voi 69.96 94.66 Wundanyi 86.42 103.52 County 62.19 72.12 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good NAROK performance of the 2019 short rains. Narok-East 66.83 84.15 Emurua Dikirr 82.41 86.96 Kilgoris 66.31 68.8 Narok-North 55.56 63.37 Narok-South 62.2 73.69 Narok-West 60.53 70.94 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT 5. RECOVERY fluctuate outside expected return to seasonal norms 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and production All indicators are outside indicators fluctuate outside normal ranges",
            "April_2020.pdf": "April 2020 Page 1 KEY HIGHLIGHTS As a result of the timely start of the March- Early onset of the MAM 2020 season rainfall has started April-May (MAM) rainfall, all the 23 ASAL to impact positively on both crop and livestock counties are currently categorized in the production. In many ASAL areas, livestock production normal drought phase, with the trend has improved which is attributed to increased improving in 5 counties while a stable trend availability of water and pasture. Availability of these was observed in 17 counties. rangeland resources has led to a general improvement in livestock body condition for all livestock species, The March to May rains have positively which in turn has boosted milk production and overall impacted on water sources for both livestock increase in livestock productivity. and household consumption positively by increasing water availability and improving All pastoral counties recorded favourable terms of trade access by means of reducing distances to (ToT), implying that in March 2020 livestock producers water points. In most ASAL counties, the in these counties could purchase quantities of maize water situation observed in March was above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size considerably better in comparison to the one goat. normally witnessed at this time of the year. Drought phase classification, March 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Page 2 1.0 Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall Onset of the 2020 March to May long rains season was early since majority of the ASAL counties started receiving rains in the first and second week of March compared to third and fourth week of March when the March-April-May (MAM) season normally begins. The MAM rains have impacted water sources for both livestock and household consumption positively by increasing availability through increasing the number of sources holding water and improving access through reducing distances to water points. In most ASAL counties, the water situation observed in March was considerably better in comparison to the one normally witnessed at this time of the year. Early onset of the MAM 2020 season rainfall has started to impact positively on both crop and livestock production. NDMA uses Earth Observation (EO) data to derive information products which are used to report on vegetation conditions and to detect possible risks for food security linked to reduced pasture and browse availability. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values as at 30th March 2020 is summarized in Table 1. Most ASAL areas have received good rains since October 2019 and the vegetation indices at the end of March 2020 indicate above average condition. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI 3 month) Summary Status as at 30th March 2020 Above Normal Normal Moderate Severe Mandera Tana River Garissa Turkana Samburu Isiolo Kitui West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Embu Laikipia Lamu Meru Marsabit Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Baringo Taita Taveta Kwale Kilifi Tharaka (23) (0) (0) (0) Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2019 with that in March 2020. The March 2020, VCI map illustrates that the vegetation condition in March 2020 was better compared to the situation in March 2019 as shown in Figure 1. Page 3 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2019 and March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2020 Water sources Water pans, dams, seasonal rivers, ponds, boreholes, traditional river wells and springs were the most reliable sources of water for both livestock and domestic use during the month under review. Majority of the open water sources including pans, dams and rock catchments were at 50 to 80 percent capacity across ASAL counties. In nearly all ASAL areas, the water sources in use in March 2020 were the normal sources where households drew water from at this time of the year. However, the observed water situation during the month was considerably better in comparison to the one normally witnessed in other years, which was attributed to the average to above average rains received in March 2020. Livestock production In many ASAL areas, livestock production has improved which is attributed to increased availability of water and pasture. Availability of these rangeland resources has led to a general improvement in livestock body condition for all livestock species, which in turn has boosted milk production and overall increase in livestock productivity. Pasture and browse condition During the month of March, pasture and browse condition was good across the ASAL counties compared to fair normally as shown in Table 2. The observed improvement in pasture and browse situation which is above normal for the month is attributed to the enhanced rainfall received in March 2020. Page 4 Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2020 Pasture Browse P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Baringo Tharaka Garissa Mandera Baringo Embu Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Turkana Kilifi Kitui Kajiado Turkana Kwale Laikipia Kitui Kwale Makueni Meru Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Marsabit Narok Samburu Nyeri Tana River Nyeri West Pokot Lamu Samburu Wajir Tana River Wajir Taita Taveta Lamu Taita Taveta Embu Tharaka Kilifi West Pokot Meru Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for cattle and goats was fair to good in all counties as illustrated in Table 3. The current livestock body condition has improved compared to last month due to the decrease in trekking distances in search of pasture and water coupled with growth in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is above normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, March 2020 Goats Cattle Poor Fair Good Poor Fair Good Baringo Marsabit Isiolo Baringo Turkana Makueni Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Tana River Meru Laikipia Mandera Embu Laikipia Marsabit Isiolo Lamu Samburu Narok Lamu Kajiado Kitui Makueni Turkana Nyeri Garissa Mandera Embu Garissa Taita Taveta Wajir Samburu Narok Tana River Meru Tharaka Kwale Tharaka Kwale West Pokot Nyeri West Pokot Taita Taveta Wajir Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. In comparison to the long term average; current milk production in nineteen counties is above or close to LTA which was attributed to good availability of water, pasture and browse. However, four counties which includes: Kajiado, Makueni, Lamu and Kitui recorded below normal milk production. The below average milk production was attributed to a drop in calving rates and a general reduction in herd size at household level. Page 5 Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2020 Milk Garissa Baringo Kitui Kajiado Embu Garissa Production Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Narok West Pokot Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Lamu Meru Baringo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Makueni Nyeri Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Taita Taveta Samburu Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kitui Wajir Laikipia Wajir Lamu Makueni West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Tana River Kwale Turkana Embu (Mbeere) Meru (Meru North) Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Samburu In all ASAL counties, the current average price for cattle are above or close to the 2015 - 2019 mean. For example, in Marsabit County the average cattle price recorded in March was Kshs 26,434 which was above the LTA price of Kshs 18,827 by 40 percent. Similarly in Samburu County the average price of 4-year old medium size bull during the month was Kshs 21,455 which was above the 2015 - 2019 LTA by 36 percent. The above average cattle prices is attributed to the improved body condition of cattle relative to the typical state that would be expected at this time of the year. Table 5 presents trends in cattle prices. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, March 2020 Cattle Marsabit Meru Kitui Nyeri Isiolo Kajiado Baringo Prices Taita Taveta Nyeri Turkana Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Garissa Laikipia Narok Kwale Kitui Wajir Turkana Lamu West Pokot Wajir Embu Marsabit Narok Kwale Makueni Baringo Garissa Makueni West Pokot Meru Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Taita Taveta Embu Tana River Samburu Kilifi Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Lamu Goat prices Table 6 exhibits the trend in goat prices in March 2020 in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month under review, all ASAL counties reported above normal or close to LTA prices for goats that was occasioned by the prevalent good body condition for goats. For instance, in Kwale County, the price of a medium-sized three-year-old buck was Kshs 4,428 in March having increased by a 25 percent margin from Kshs 3,533 recorded in February. In addition, the price was more than double (117 percent) that expected for this time of the year which is recorded as Kshs 2,041 in the 2016 - 2018 LTA. In the same way, current average prices for goats in Garissa, Kajiado, West Pokot, Kilifi, Narok and Wajir were above LTA by 78, 58, 53, 33, 25 and 20 percent respectively. Continued availability of rangeland resources such as browse and water was credited as the contributing factor to the improved market price. Page 6 Table 6.0: Goat prices, March 2020 Goat Kwale Samburu Baringo Garissa Tana River Narok Makueni Prices Turkana Nyeri Meru Kitui Baringo Isiolo West Pokot Lamu Isiolo Kwale Taita Taveta Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Marsabit West Pokot Meru Garissa Makueni Tharaka Kajiado Nyeri Marsabit Narok Nithi Laikipia Embu Tana River Wajir Turkana Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Embu Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Kitui During the month of March most farmers in the marginal agricultural areas were engaged in land preparation and planting. In some counties such as Kitui, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Taita Taveta, Nyeri (Kieni) and Tharaka where farmers had planted in early March in anticipation of a timely onset of the March to May (MAM) long-rains season crops were at the germination stage. Desert locust infestation was reported in parts of Tharaka Nithi County such as Maragwa, Kathanga Chini, Kathagani, Kathiriku, Karangare and Makithi. However, the spread of the locust in the county was effectively managed as a result of the swift action by the aerial and ground control teams. Maize prices Table 7 presents the maize price trends in ASAL counties. In 20 ASAL counties, the retail price of maize was below or close to the 2015 - 19 average. For instance, in Meru County average maize price during the month of February was Kshs 79 per kg which is 27 percent higher than the three- year mean of Kshs 62. The average market price of a kilo of maize fell by 22 percent to Kshs 25 from Kshs 32 recorded in February. The retail price of maize in Meru in March was 31 percent lower than the three-year average of Kshs 36. Similarly, in Turkana, Kitui, Marsabit and Narok maize prices were below LTA by 25, 17, 12 and 11 percent respectively. The below normal maize price is attributed to increased supply of the commodity in markets in most ASAL areas and the enhanced short rains season harvest which has replenished household maize stocks. Page 7 Table 7.0: Maize prices, March 2020 Maize Mandera Baringo Embu Turkana Meru Embu Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Prices Garissa Laikipia Nyeri Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Lamu Lamu Samburu Wajir Marsabit Wajir Mandera Kwale Meru Tharaka Kilifi Makueni Samburu Garissa Narok West Pokot Kwale Kajiado Marsabit Tharaka Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo West Pokot Makueni Narok Tana River Taita Taveta Kitui Turkana Access to water In all ASAL counties, average household distances are below the five-year average. The shorter household distances to water points recorded in March was fundamentally occasioned by recharge of open water sources. For example, in Marsabit, average return distances from households to water sources reduced by 11 percent from 4.5 km in February to 4.0 km in March. In addition, when compared to similar periods, the current household water distance of 4.0 km is 44 percent shorter than the normal household water distance of 7.2 km. Equally, in Isiolo, Narok, Kilifi, Kitui, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir average household distances are below the 2015 - 2019 mean by 74, 63, 58, 50, 41, 40 and 34 percent respectively. Table 8 summarizes the trend in distances walked by households to access water. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2020 Distance Mandera Tharaka Nithi Lamu Embu Taita Taveta Makueni from Taita Taveta Meru Kajiado West Pokot Mandera households West Pokot Wajir Laikipia Samburu Baringo to main Tana River Embu Marsabit Turkana Isiolo Samburu Nyeri Narok Tharaka Meru water Laikipia Kilifi Nyeri Garissa Kitui Baringo Kajiado Tana River Lamu Kwale Marsabit Kwale Wajir Turkana Narok Kilifi Makueni Isiolo Garissa Kitui As a result of adequate pasture availability within sites in close proximity to water sources, all ASAL counties reported lower than the five-year average trekking distances from grazing fields to water sources, implying improved access in comparison with a similar period in the past. However, in Samburu County, livestock trekking distances increased due to deterioration of pasture as a result of forage damage caused by desert locusts which led to severely reduction in pasture and browse availability especially in parts of Samburu East sub-county. Consequently, the average distance for livestock increased to 9.4 km up from 8 km recorded in the month of February. But even with the increase in livestock trekking distance, the current situation remained below the Page 8 LTA of 14.5 km. The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, March 2020 Distance Samburu Nyeri Marsabit Garissa Baringo from Laikipia Kilifi Meru Kajiado Embu livestock Baringo Kajiado Narok Laikipia Kilifi grazing Marsabit Kwale Nyeri Kwale Kitui Turkana Narok Taita Taveta Lamu Makueni area to Taita Taveta Meru Mandera Samburu main water West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Tana River Tana River Embu Nithi Isiolo Makueni Isiolo Wajir Garissa Kitui West Pokot Mandera Lamu Turkana Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trend in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize. In all ASAL areas, the current value is above or close to the long term average (LTA), implying that livestock producers in these counties could purchase quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. This was attributed to rising goat prices as a result of their good body condition while maize prices were stabilizing or declining. However, in Wajir County, the terms of trade decreased slightly by 9 percent from 66 kg of maize in February to 60 kg in March indicating that a lesser amount of maize could be purchased from the proceeds of an average sized goat this month compared with last month. In the same way, in Kwale, Embu (Mbeere) and Isiolo terms of trade decreased by 13, 9 and 7 percent respectively. The worsening trend in ToT recorded in these counties were largely due to a drop in the goat prices while maize prices increased. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, March 2020 Terms of West Pokot Meru Taita Taveta Mandera Tharaka Nithi Embu trade Tana River Embu Kajiado Kajiado Nyeri (Kieni) Garissa (ToT) Marsabit Kitui Kwale Lamu Taita Taveta Isiolo Samburu Nyeri Tharaka Makueni Tana River Kwale Laikipia Kilifi Wajir Marsabit West Pokot Wajir Baringo Garissa Meru Samburu Turkana Narok Narok Laikipia Makueni Isiolo Kilifi Baringo Mandera Lamu Kitui Turkana Page 9 Health and nutrition Overall, in approximately 90 percent of the ASAL counties, the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement is close to or below LTA. For example, in Kilifi the proportion of children at risk of being malnourished reduced from 3.3 percent in February to 2.5 percent in March. The decrease was attributed to adequate dietary intake and nutrition interventions including baby friendly initiatives conducted by the health sector partners. In Mandera, prevalence of malnutrition declined by 20 percent compared to the previous month while in Kitui the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition dropped from 7.6 percent in February to 6.5 percent in March which was attributed to increase in availability of diverse food commodities at household level. Table 11 summarizes the trend in the proportion of children aged 6 to 59 months at risk of malnutrition. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2020 MUAC Lamu Embu Laikipia Kilifi Kilifi Baringo Garissa Samburu Baringo Marsabit Kwale Kitui Kajiado Isiolo Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana Narok Lamu Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Wajir Mandera Taita Taveta Embu Makueni Isiolo Marsabit West Pokot Kwale Garissa Kitui Turkana Makueni Narok Mandera Meru Meru Tana River Kajiado Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Tharaka Nithi Wajir 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 sums up the trend in drought phase classification as at end of March 2020. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored which includes: rainfall performance, vegetation condition and the state of water sources all the 23 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase, with the trend worsening in only one county, improving in 5 counties while a stable trend was observed in 17 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, March 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Recovery Page 10 2 Projected food security situation According the Kenya Meteorological department (KMD) forecast for April 2020, rainfall performance during the month of March was average to above average. The forecast indicates that ASAL counties such as Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, parts of Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, and parts of Meru are likely to experience above average rainfall especially during the first three weeks of April 2020. However, Laikipia, Baringo, Narok, parts of Kajiado, Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu, a few areas in Nyeri and parts of Meru are likely to experience dry spells during the first two weeks of the month. The figure to the right shows the expected rainfall performance in April 2020. Household and livestock water distances are expected to be within the normal ranges for the next one month. Livestock productivity including body condition, milk production and livestock prices is projected to remain stable and above average at least over the next one month as a consequence of the ongoing long rains sustaining further regeneration of pasture and browse. Enhanced rainfall performance is likely to improve food availability at household levels and minimize reliance on markets for food supplies. Maize prices are likely to remain stable and near average for the next 2 to 3 months. However, enhanced rains might result in flooding which might lead to loss of lives, displacement, destruction of infrastructures and upsurge in water borne diseases. Furthermore, COVID-19 pandemic associated travel restrictions and social distancing constraints might impact negatively on supply of food commodities and market operations including livestock markets. 3 Recommendations Provision of food and non-food assistance to approximately 1.3 million people in the ASAL areas currently experiencing Crisis and Emergency food security outcomes. The projected above average March-April-May (MAM) rains are likely to result in floding in some of the flood prone ASAL counties such as West Pokot, Tana River and Garissa. Consequently, it is imperative for all counties to put in place approprite mitigation measures to prevent loss of lives and livelihoods. Create awareness and educate ASAL communities on key measures to help curb the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Page 11 Intensify ground and aerial spraying to control the spread and infestation of desert locusts in the country. Promote rain water harvesting, pasture establishment and conservation. Investment in preparedness and the capacity to respond effectively during the next drought, including refining drought contingency plans and operationalizing contingency funds. Page 12 Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th March 2020 BARINGO County 98.82 92.16 Vegetation greenness above normal across the county and its sub counties. Central 85.71 89.81 Eldama 71.66 74.2 Mogotio 97.55 91.68 North 91.05 93.1 South 97.09 94.89 Tiaty 110.51 95.07 MANDERA County 92.28 79.33 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Banissa 88.11 64.95 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. M East 79.54 61.49 Lafey 91.82 71.76 M North 101.99 83.76 M South 95.82 97.71 M West 84.77 75.58 TURKANA County 102.4 117.71 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T Central 108.19 122.39 T. East 88.82 79.49 T. Loima 133.6 141.64 T. North 90.38 117.9 T. South 113.22 118.26 T. West 99.88 128.36 MARSABIT County 93.89 89.83 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Laisaimis 101.5 102.96 Moyale 84.52 70.83 N. Horr 91.19 86.28 Saku 108.28 107.67 WAJIR County 83.69 75.85 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. W. East 98.17 88.23 W. Eldas 66.52 63.38 W. North 94.64 89.92 W. South 77.46 67.25 W. Tarbaj 85.82 80.34 W West 91.22 81.1 Page 13 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category as at 24th month (3-month) February as at 30th 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2020 March 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 2020 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 96.66 91.7 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S East 92.28 87.32 S. North 101.42 96.71 S. West 98.07 92.18 GARISSA County 77.88 77.84 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 79.85 70.78 Daadab 66.6 61.14 Fafi 77.24 83.23 Ijara 89.96 93.71 Lagdera 77.77 70.24 Dujis 56.59 59.29 ISIOLO County 85.67 77.9 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation I. North 86.04 80.56 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. South 85.11 73.84 TANA County 97.39 98.96 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 80.47 81.98 Galole 111.19 115.81 Garsen 103.13 102.84 KAJIADO County 102.97 105.8 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 97.1 98.06 K. East 96.44 101.96 K. North 86.01 94.03 K. South 101.96 102.05 K. West 110.31 115.12 LAIKIPIA County 90.85 87.19 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation L. East 88.02 87.96 L. North 94.52 91.02 L. West 85.34 79.66 THARAKA County 77.01 83.7 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chuka 67.41 83.56 Maara 66.07 80.11 Tharaka 84.12 84.91 WEST County 98.45 101.9 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 103.17 104.44 Kapenguria 98.43 107.24 Pokot South 88.23 97.17 Sigor 95.93 95.55 Page 14 EMBU County 83.07 94.75 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 78.47 87.82 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 83.03 94.69 Mbeere South 87.97 99.49 Runyenjes 69.94 84.92 KITUI County 92.74 100.82 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 90.02 101.06 Kitui East 97.88 105.53 Mwingi Central 92.3 96.74 Mwingi North 87.14 87.05 Mwingi West 93.83 108.6 Kitui Rural 89.92 103.98 Kitui South 92.69 103.68 Kitui West 96.34 109.19 MAKUENI County 92.38 102.65 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 101.53 105.17 Kibwezi East 84.74 97.5 Kibwezi West 90.08 101.9 Kilome 100.7 108.19 Makueni 96.3 106.17 Mbooni 98.26 106.85 MERU County 80.67 87.79 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 79.1 93.11 Central Imenti 72.4 83.65 Igembe Central 88.66 90.24 Igembe North 90.27 89.97 Igembe South 80.31 78.97 North Imenti 72.17 89 South Imenti 60.65 76.05 Tigania East 85.48 86.72 Tigania West 83.98 99.63 Page 15 NYERI County 75.62 86.96 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 74.53 85.36 Mathira 67.05 80.55 Mukurweini 97.79 106.61 Town 94.71 100.93 Othaya 74.8 86.81 Tetu 72.55 86.83 KILIFI County 86.02 84.45 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Ganze 88.74 89.5 Kaloleni 88.88 89.99 Magarini 84.99 80.38 Malindi 77.5 80.7 Kilifi-North 86.23 88.51 Rabai 85.38 93.87 Kilifi-South 91.07 100.29 KWALE County 91.52 97.41 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 91.99 106.65 Lungalunga 92.41 94.14 Matuga 88.67 90.54 Msambweni 89 92 LAMU County 89.42 90.74 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 88 89.8 Lamu West 90.24 91.28 County 96.84 105.7 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. TAITA Mwatate 101.94 107.2 TAVETA Taveta 98.27 106.68 Voi 94.31 106.71 Wundanyi 102.11 113.42 County 86.95 91.18 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Narok-East 91.73 96.41 NAROK Emurua Dikirr 92.59 90.84 Kilgoris 85.85 87.39 Narok-North 77.74 83.4 Narok-South 86.02 92.75 Narok-West 90.66 93.31 Page 16 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Page 17 Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT 5. RECOVERY fluctuate outside expected return to seasonal norms 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and production All indicators are outside indicators fluctuate outside normal ranges Page 18",
            "May_2020.pdf": "May 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS The good rains received in April have In virtually all ASAL counties, return distances to water enhanced pasture regeneration and boosted for households are currently below the five-year higher development and growth of crops. average while at the same time most counties registered However, the heavy rainfall that was an improving trend in April as most areas continued to received from mid-April also resulted in receive reasonable rainfall during the month. widespread flooding and have created a conducive environment for the persistence of In all ASAL areas, terms of trade (ToT) were the desert locust infestation, which is posing favourable since the proceeds from the sale of a goat significant threat to crops and livestock could purchase larger quantities of maize in April forage across the arid and semi-arid (ASAL) compared with the long term average (LTA) while the region. nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 15 out of 23 counties reporting Abundant availability of water, pasture and incidences of children with mid-upper arm browse in all ASAL counties has led to a circumference (MUAC) less than 135 mm which was general improvement in livestock body close to or below LTA, implying that in about 70 condition for all livestock species, which in percent of the ASAL counties the current nutrition turn has led to an increase in livestock status of children below the age of five years was within productivity. the seasonal ranges. Drought phase classification, April 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Kwale, Wajir, Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Lamu, Isiolo, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Garissa, Tana Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, River, Embu Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Marsabit, Tharaka (Mbeere), Nithi (Tharaka) 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall During the month of April, nearly all ASAL counties received enhanced rainfall that was characterized by heavy storms. In many areas, intense rains were received throughout the month and consequently, by the end of the month, several counties had attained and surpassed their long term mean rainfall for April. Counties which recorded substantial above average rains in April include: Narok, West Pokot, Garissa, Turkana, Marsabit, Makueni, Embu and Kajiado. The good rains received in April have enhanced pasture regeneration and growth of crops. However, the above average rains have also resulted in widespread flooding and have created a conducive environment for the persistence of the desert locust infestation, which is posing significant threat to crops and livestock forage. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values as at 27th April 2020 is summarized in Table 1. Most ASAL areas have received good rains since October 2019 and the vegetation indices at the end of April 2020 indicate above average condition. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI 3 month) Summary Status as at 27th April 2020 Above Normal Normal Moderate Severe Mandera Tana River Garissa Turkana Samburu Isiolo Kitui West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Embu Laikipia Lamu Meru Marsabit Makueni Narok Nyeri Baringo Taita Taveta (Kieni) Kilifi Tharaka Kwale (23) (0) (0) (0) Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late April 2019 with that in late April 2020. The April 2020, VCI map illustrates that the vegetation condition in April 2020 was better compared to the situation in April 2019 and as the right hand VCI map for 2020 demonstrates, vegetation greenness in April 2020 in all arid and semi-arid counties was within normal to above normal ranges. The improved state of vegetation across ASAL areas is mainly attributed to the early onset of the March-April-May rainy season and the enhanced rainfall received in April. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2019 and April 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April 2020 Water sources The current sources of water for both domestic and livestock use are water pans, dams, shallow wells, rock catchments ponds, boreholes, rivers and piped water systems. Recharge to the open water sources is 70 to 100 percent of their capacities, which has greatly improved water availability. For instance, approximately half of the water pans and rock catchments in Turkana are currently at full capacity, while water levels in most surface water sources in Baringo, Kitui, Samburu and Kajiado are at about 70 percent of their maximum volume. Livestock production Abundant availability of water, pasture and browse in all ASAL counties has led to a general improvement in livestock body condition for all livestock species, which in turn has led to an increase in livestock productivity. Pasture and browse condition Overall, pasture and browse condition considerably improved in April when compared to the preceding month which was attributed to the cumulative effect of the above normal rains that promoted massive pasture and browse growth and regeneration. Nearly all counties reported the current state of pasture and browse as being above normal when compared to a similar month of the year as presented in Table 2. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2020 Pasture Browse P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Baringo Tharaka Nithi Lamu Mandera Tharaka Nithi Lamu Mandera Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Samburu Embu Turkana Kitui Turkana Garissa Isiolo Samburu Embu Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Meru Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Narok Laikipia Meru Marsabit Nyeri Makueni Narok Kitui Kwale Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Kwale Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for cattle and goats was fair to good in all counties as illustrated in Table 3. The current livestock body condition has improved compared to last month due to availability of pasture and water in close proximity hence livestock are walking shorter distances between the grazing fields and water points. In general, the current body condition of most livestock is above normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2020 Goats Cattle Poor Fair Good Poor Fair Good Baringo Tharaka Nithi Narok Baringo Tharaka Nithi Narok Lamu Taita Taveta Wajir Lamu Taita Taveta Wajir Laikipia West Pokot Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Nyeri Tana River Meru Tana River Meru Samburu Embu Samburu Embu Makueni Makueni Garissa Garissa Marsabit Isiolo Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Kwale Mandera Kwale Turkana Kitui Turkana Kitui Kajiado Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Milk production In comparison to the 2017 to 2019 production records, average milk production per household in April 2020 in seventeen counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, six counties which includes: Samburu, Kajiado, Lamu, Makueni, Tana River and Kitui recorded below normal milk production. The below average milk production was attributed to a drop in calving rates, general reduction in household livestock herd size and outbreak of livestock diseases like food and mouth disease (FMD) contagious bovine pleuro pneumonia (CBPP). In Tana River County the drop in milk production was also associated with increased incidences of pests mainly tsetse fly and flooding which had submerged most of the grazing fields. Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2020 Milk Garissa Baringo Kitui Kajiado Embu Garissa Production Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Lamu West Pokot Marsabit Marsabit Laikipia Lamu Turkana Baringo Laikipia Nyeri (Kieni) Meru North Makueni Kwale Isiolo Makueni Tharaka Nithi Wajir Samburu Mandera Kitui Tana River West Pokot T ana River Meru Kilifi Kwale Narok Samburu Embu (Mbeere) Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Mandera Turkana Cattle prices Table 5 illustrates the trends in cattle prices. In all ASAL counties, the current average price for cattle are above or close to the 2015 - 2019 mean. For instance, in Mandera County the average price of a medium size four-year bull rose from Kshs 20,700 in March to Kshs 23,500 in April which was an increase of 14 percent. In West Pokot County the average cattle price recorded in April was Kshs 23,529 which was above the LTA price of Kshs 14,190 by 66 percent. Likewise in Kilifi County, average cattle prices stood at Kshs 25,000 which was above the 2015 - 2019 LTA of Kshs 16,914 by 48 percent. The above average cattle prices was attributed to the improved body condition of cattle across ASAL areas. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2020 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Tana River Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Baringo Embu Mandera Prices Taita Taveta Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Samburu Lamu Kilifi West Pokot Wajir Kwale Tana River Makueni Wajir Kitui Marsabit Meru Embu Turkana Narok Laikipia Samburu Kilifi Makueni Garissa Kwale Meru Baringo Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Narok Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Lamu Taita Taveta Mandera West Pokot Kajiado Goat prices All ASAL counties reported above normal or close to LTA prices for goats in April 2020 which was attributed to the good body condition of goats and reduced volumes of livestock presented for sale due to closure of markets in some areas as result of restrictions placed to curb the spread of COVID-19. In Samburu County, for instance, the price of a medium-sized two-year old buck increased by 16 percent to Kshs 3,560 from Kshs 3,070 recorded in March which was above the LTA price of Kshs 2,820 by 26 percent. Likewise, current average prices for goats in West Pokot, Kilifi, Wajir, Turkana and Kajiado were above LTA by 45, 34, 33, 29 and 24 percent respectively. Table 6 demonstrates the trend in goat prices in April 2020 in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2020 Goat Turkana Nyeri Meru Garissa Taita Taveta Baringo Prices Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Turkana West Pokot Embu Garissa Makueni Mandera Kilifi Tana River Kajiado Marsabit Narok Embu Makueni Mandera Kitui Samburu Wajir Kitui Samburu Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Baringo Lamu Wajir Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Kwale Tana River Narok Lamu Tharaka Nithi Meru Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi The impact of the heavy rains received during the month was mixed; while they have led to good performance in crops planted on gentle slopes, they have also led to poor performance in farms located on flat plains and low lying areas due to flooding and waterlogging. The main farm activities carried out during the month included weeding and control of pests and diseases. Early planted beans, green grams and cow peas are currently at flowering to pod formation stage while maize, millet and sorghum are at knee height stage. During the month under review, cases of fall armyworm were reported in Makueni and Meru (Meru North) County. Desert locust infestation was also reported in Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) and in Igembe Central in Meru County. Intervention measures carried out to control the desert locust invasion included community sensitization, surveillance and monitoring of hoppers and swarms, and conducting both ground and aerial spraying. Maize prices In most ASAL areas, prices of maize were below or close to the 2015 - 19 average and remained stable compared to last month as reflected in Table 7. However, there were reports of price spikes in a number of counties such as Embu, Narok, Kilifi, Wajir, Meru and Kwale which was attributed to increased demand occasioned by market closures, panic buying, high cost of transport, and supply shortages due to COVID-19 prevention related restrictions. In Embu (Mbeere) County, for instance, maize prices increased by 24 percent from Kshs 31 per kg in March to Kshs 41 in April which is 26 percent higher than the three-year mean of Kshs 33. Similarly, in Kilifi County retail price of maize increased by 19 percent from Kshs 42 in March to Kshs 49 per kg. Table 7.0: Maize prices, April 2020 Maize Mandera Marsabit Lamu Turkana Samburu Garissa Marsabit Prices Baringo Samburu Tana River Mandera Turkana Tharaka Embu Garissa Makueni Makueni Laikipia Kajiado Wajir Laikipia Isiolo Taita Taveta Lamu Baringo Kajiado Narok West Pokot Isiolo Embu Tharaka Kilifi Kitui Tana River Nyeri Kilifi Taita Taveta Nyeri Wajir West Pokot Meru Kitui Kwale Narok Access to water Table 8 summarizes the trend in distances walked by households to access water. In virtually all ASAL counties, return distances to water for households are currently below the 2015-2019 average while at the same time most counties registered an improving trend in April as most areas continued to receive moderate to heavy rainfall throughout the month. For instance, there was a 48 percent reduction in the average trekking distance to water points for households in Kilifi, from 2.3 km in March to 1.2 km in April. In addition, when compared to similar periods, the current household water distance of 1.2 km was 79 percent shorter than the normal household water distance of 5.6 km. likewise, in Samburu County, average distance to watering points for households reduced by 30 percent from 4.6 km in March to 3.2 km in April. At the same time, return distances to water sources for households in Mandera County dropped from 8.2 km in March to 5.8 km in April a reduction of 29 percent. However, in Tana River County, household trekking distances increased by a margin of 21 percent from 4.2 km in March to 5.1 km in April which is also above the LTA distance of 4.5 km by 13 percent. The increase in distances was attributed to flooding which contaminated most of the open water sources hence forcing households to walk long distances to access clean water from boreholes. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2020 Distance Tana River Kwale Mandera Turkana Baringo Embu Taita Taveta Tana River from Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir Laikipia Kitui Makueni Meru households Makueni Meru Marsabit Kwale Kajiado to main Laikipia Lamu Samburu Kilifi Garissa Marsabit Narok Mandera Nyeri Lamu Baringo Isiolo Turkana Wajir Kilifi Kitui Isiolo Narok Garissa Embu West Pokot Tharaka Kajiado T haraka Nithi West Pokot Nyeri As a result of adequate pasture availability within sites in close proximity to water sources, all ASAL counties reported lower than the five-year average trekking distances from grazing fields to water sources, implying improved access in comparison with a similar period in the past. For example, in Turkana County return distance for livestock from grazing areas to watering points decreased considerably by a proportion of 31 percent to 4 km in April from 5.8 km in March which is also below the long term mean of 7.5 km by 47 percent. Similarly, in Kitui, distance covered by livestock to water sources decreased by 12 percent from 4.1 km in March to 3.6 km in April, while in Kwale the distance trekked by livestock to access water decreased by 31 percent from 3.9 km in March to 2.7 km in April. In the same way, current return distances for livestock in Kilifi, Isiolo, Marsabit, Narok, Mandera and West Pokot are below the 2015 - 19 LTA by 75, 72, 71, 65, 61 and 45 percent respectively. The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is shown in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, April 2020 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Tana River Meru Samburu Kitui Garissa from Samburu Kwale Mandera Embu Baringo livestock Marsabit Narok Marsabit Wajir Meru grazing Turkana Kitui Laikipia Kwale Narok Mandera Nyeri Kajiado Nyeri Taita Taveta area to Laikipia Lamu Kilifi Isiolo Lamu Baringo Wajir Tharaka Nithi Makueni Garissa Embu Tana River Makueni Isiolo West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Turkana Tharaka Nithi Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trend in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. In all ASAL areas, terms of trade (ToT) were favourable since the proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase larger quantities of maize in April compared with the long term mean, for example, in Tana River County, ToT were better since the proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase 83 kg of maize in April compared with the LTA of 44 kg which is 89 percent above the long term mean. In Samburu, ToT improved by 19 percent in April as households could purchase 74 kg of maize compared with 62 kg in March which is 54 percent higher than the normal ToT of 48 kg, while in Taita Taveta County, ToT increased significantly from 126 kg in March to 147 kg of maize in April, a 17 percent rise. In most counties, a general rise in the price of goats was the major driver of the improved terms of trade. However, in Embu (Mbeere) County, the terms of trade decreased considerably by 34 percent from 146 kg of maize in March to 96 kg in April signifying that a lesser amount of maize could be purchased from the proceeds of an average sized goat in April compared with previous month. Similarly, in Kajiado, Narok, Kitui, Baringo and Marsabit terms of trade decreased by 25, 19, 17, 16 and 15 percent respectively. The worsening trend in ToT recorded in these counties was largely attributed to a marginal increase in maize prices and decrease in goat prices which was associated with disruption or closure of markets in some areas due to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, April 2020 Terms of West Pokot Meru Tharaka Turkana Nyeri (Kieni) Embu trade Tana River Embu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo (ToT) Marsabit Kitui Samburu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Samburu Nyeri Kwale Garissa Laikipia Laikipia Kilifi Wajir Isiolo Mandera Baringo Garissa Lamu Kajiado Turkana Narok Makueni Marsabit Makueni Isiolo Meru Mandera Lamu Narok Taita Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Wajir Kitui Health and nutrition The bulletins monitor the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement. The nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 15 counties reporting prevalence of children with MUAC less than 135 mm which was close to or below LTA. In addition, 12 counties are now on a stable or improving trend, compared to 15 in March. For instance, in Tana River County the proportion of children at risk of being malnourished reduced from 14.5 percent in March to 13 percent in April. Similarly, in Meru (Meru North), the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition decreased by 6 percent from 10.6 percent in March to 10 percent in April, while in Lamu the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition dropped by 5 percent from 6.3 percent in March to 6 percent in April. This improvement was attributed to increase in milk consumption and enhanced dietary intake. However, in three counties, Tana River, Lamu and Samburu the proportions of children with MUAC less than 135 mm was higher than the April long term average. The above normal malnutrition status in these counties was associated high disease prevalence and poor maternal care such as poor breastfeeding practices. Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2020 MUAC Lamu Embu Laikipia Kilifi Tana River Baringo Samburu Samburu Marsabit Kwale Garissa Embu Marsabit Tana River Baringo Narok Meru Isiolo Mandera Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Garissa Kitui Kilifi Tharaka Mandera Meru Kitui Kwale Kajiado Laikipia N arok Tharaka Lamu Taita Taveta T aita Taveta 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. Following the good rains received in April 2020, environmental indicators in all counties have returned to normal with the trend improving in 7 counties while a stable trend was observed in 16 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, April 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Kwale, Wajir, Lamu, Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Garissa, Embu Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, , Makueni, (Mbeere), Tana River Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Recovery 2.0 Other food security challenges Nearly all ASALs counties received average to above average in April that resulted to loss of lives, displacement, flooding and landslides which adversely affected ASAL communities livelihoods, assets and infrastructure. By end of April, floods had displaced more than 100,000 people and killed about 80 people since March when the long rains season started. The most affected ASAL counties include: Tana River, West Pokot, Garissa, Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, Narok, Samburu, Kajiado and Baringo. Furthermore, the heavy rains have increased the risk of health emergencies and provided conditions conducive to the further breeding of desert locusts. New swarms from current breeding will form from mid-June onwards, coinciding with the start of the long rains harvest. Currently, ground and aerial control operations against hopper bands is ongoing in Samburu, Marsabit and Turkana. 3.0 Projected food security situation The projected continuation of the March-April-May (MAM) long rains season in May 2020 is likely to be conducive for agricultural production while the ongoing wet conditions are expected to sustain and further improve the forage and water situation across ASAL counties. In most ASAL areas, the prevailing good livestock body condition and stable maize prices are likely to maintain the current above average livestock-to-cereals terms of trade during the month of May. In addition, increased milk production is expected to result in improved nutritional status of children. However, desert locust infestation which is projected to cause significant damage to forage and crops and the disruption of markets operations due to the COVID 19 pandemic are likely to negatively affect household incomes, prices of food and livestock which might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. 4.0 Recommendations Food and Safety Net Provision of food and cash transfers to food insecure population targeting vulnerable members of the community affected by recent drought and floods including households which have been severely affected by increasing food prices, reduction in income or loss of jobs. as a result of measures put it place to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health and Nutrition Conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 and support hygiene education promotion including installation of hand washing facilities in public spaces. Provision of face masks, hand sanitizers and soap to vulnerable members of the community. Agriculture Provision of certified seeds and other farm inputs. Upscale ground and aerial spraying to control desert locust infestation and spread. LivestockVeterinary Enhance disease control measures including livestock vaccination. Support pasture establishment and conservation as well as stockpiling of county strategic hay reserves. Water Promote rain water harvesting. Community sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th April 2020 BARINGO County 92.16 85.07 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Central 89.81 90.68 Eldama 74.20 79.69 Mogotio 91.68 80.90 North 93.10 89.25 South 94.89 85.83 Tiaty 95.07 84.68 MANDERA County 79.33 66.83 Only Mandera East sub-county is in the normal vegetation greenness class while all Banissa 64.95 53.54 other sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. M. East 61.49 46.80 Lafey 71.76 55.12 M. North 83.76 68.57 M. South 97.71 82.52 M. West 75.58 72.39 TURKANA County 117.71 117.33 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. This is due to good T Central 122.39 119.13 rains received during the ongoing MAM rainy season. T. East 79.49 70.38 T. Loima 141.64 136.92 T. North 117.9 120.08 T. South 118.26 118.85 T. West 128.36 134.84 MARSABIT County 89.83 70.51 V egetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties. Laisaimis 102.96 76.21 Moyale 70.83 57.89 N. Horr 86.28 69.82 Saku 107.67 82.90 WAJIR County 75.85 58.83 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band. However, significant W. East 88.23 66.44 decline was noted in Wajir Eldas which currently has normal vegetation greenness W. Eldas 63.38 49.22 W. North 89.92 72.1 W. South 67.25 53.46 W. Tarbaj 80.34 64.03 W. West 81.1 55.31 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category as at 30th month (3-month) March as at 27th 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2020 April 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 2020 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 91.7 77.19 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S. East 87.32 70.01 S. North 96.71 83.45 S. West 92.18 84.93 GARISSA County 77.84 68.44 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 70.78 61.71 Daadab 61.14 52.48 Fafi 83.23 73.03 Ijara 93.71 85.62 Lagdera 70.24 59.29 Dujis 59.29 56.3 ISIOLO County 77.90 64.03 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. I. North 80.56 64.46 I. South 73.84 63.37 TANA County 98.96 87.85 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 81.98 68.03 Galole 115.81 96.83 Garsen 102.84 99.05 KAJIADO County 105.80 96.98 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 98.06 91.35 K. East 101.96 94.60 K. North 94.03 88.73 K. South 102.05 94.11 K. West 115.12 103.7 LAIKIPIA County 87.19 77.27 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. L. East 87.96 82.55 L. North 91.02 79.13 L. West 79.66 71.25 THARAKA County 83.70 80.09 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chuka 83.56 89.35 Maara 80.11 86.05 Tharaka 84.91 74.69 WEST County 101.9 96.36 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 104.44 94.58 Kapenguria 107.24 101.71 Pokot South 97.17 102.96 Sigor 95.55 91.17 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS EMBU County 94.75 94.92 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 87.82 92.39 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 94.69 93.57 Mbeere South 99.49 97.5 Runyenjes 84.92 91.15 KITUI County 100.82 94.70 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 101.06 98.20 Kitui East 105.53 98.27 Mwingi Central 96.74 88.63 Mwingi North 87.05 76.87 Mwingi West 108.6 100.67 Kitui Rural 103.98 103.79 Kitui South 103.68 100.27 Kitui West 109.19 101.24 MAKUENI County 102.65 99.46 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 105.17 103.38 Kibwezi East 97.50 95.86 Kibwezi West 101.90 99.87 Kilome 108.19 105.12 Makueni 106.17 98.23 Mbooni 106.85 102.59 MERU County 87.79 85.35 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 93.11 92.30 Central Imenti 83.65 86.55 Igembe Central 90.24 82.13 Igembe North 89.97 80.13 Igembe South 78.97 75.26 North Imenti 89.00 90.26 South Imenti 76.05 85.82 Tigania East 86.72 82.68 Tigania West 99.63 99.46 NYERI County 86.96 86.66 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 85.36 83.79 Mathira 80.55 79.97 Mukurweini 106.61 106.72 Town 100.93 98.41 Othaya 86.81 90.37 Tetu 86.83 90.5 KILIFI County 84.45 86.20 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 89.5 95.66 Kaloleni 89.99 100.39 Magarini 80.38 80.38 Malindi 80.7 83.46 Kilifi-North 88.51 82.41 Rabai 93.87 99.48 Kilifi-South 100.29 95.55 KWALE County 97.41 101.81 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 106.65 105.45 Lungalunga 94.14 97.3 Matuga 90.54 96.54 Msambweni 92.00 93.58 LAMU County 90.74 89.19 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 89.8 88.89 Lamu West 91.28 89.36 TAITA County 105.70 107.94 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. TAVETA Mwatate 107.2 107.36 Taveta 106.68 103.13 Voi 106.71 109.76 Wundanyi 113.42 112.32 NAROK County 91.18 91.78 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Narok-East 96.41 97.00 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Emurua Dikirr 90.84 83.02 Kilgoris 87.39 85.70 Narok North 83.4 84.99 Narok South 92.75 94.33 Narok West 93.31 94.09 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT 5. RECOVERY fluctuate outside expected return to seasonal norms 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and production All indicators are outside indicators fluctuate outside normal ranges",
            "June_2020.pdf": "June 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Early onset of the March-April-May (MAM) However, the heavy rainfall experienced during the 2020 seasonal rainfall coupled with the good March to May period also provided favourable rainfall performance during the months of conditions for breeding and multiplication of desert April and May has impacted positively on locusts in some of the arid and semi-arid areas, both crop and livestock production in most particularly in Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, and Isiolo ASAL counties. counties. In all ASAL areas, livestock body condition Overall, the above-average rains recorded since March has improved significantly as a result of has enhanced the environmental indicators across the availability of pasture and water which has ASAL region and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties led to increased milk availability and are currently classified in the normal drought stage with household income from higher livestock the trend improving in two counties and remaining prices. stable in 19 counties. In most of the marginal agricultural counties, crops are in fairly good condition and in some of the areas like Embu (Mbeere), harvesting of the early planted maize, beans, pigeon peas, cow peas and green grams has started. Drought phase classification, May 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Tana River, Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Taita Marsabit, Wajir Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Kwale Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Lamu, Isiolo, Garissa 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall During the month of May, various ASAL areas received substantial amounts of rainfall. In most ASAL counties the cumulative amount of rainfall received in May 2020 was near to above- average. For instance, in Baringo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Kitui, Tana River, Kajiado, West Pokot and Turkana the rainfall exceeded 75 percent of the long term mean for May. The above-average rains experienced since March have benefited crop development and pasture regeneration. However, the heavy rainfall has also provided favourable conditions for the further breeding and multiplication of desert locusts in some of the arid and semi-arid areas, particularly in Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, and Isiolo counties. Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late May 2019 with that in late May 2020. The good performance of the March-April-May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has resulted to high vegetation regeneration with all arid and semi-arid counties recording vegetation greenness values that are within normal to above normal ranges. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May 2020 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2019 and May 2020 Water sources The rainfall has been sufficient to recharge most of the open water sources, improving the quantity and quality of water and reducing distances and waiting time. In general, the water situation in May across all the ASAL areas was considerably better compared to the one normally witnessed during the month of May in recent years. For example, in Turkana County, by end of May more than 75 percent of the open water sources in all the three livelihood zones were at full capacity, while most pans and dams in Baringo were at 80 to 90 percent of their full capacity. In Kitui County, majority of surface water sources are past 60 percent of their capacity and are likely to retain water for 3 to 4 months. Livestock production The rains have positively impacted on the pasture and browse condition. This has reduced distances covered between water points and grazing fields which has resulted to improvement in overall livestock productivity which translates to enhanced milk and meat production. Pasture and browse condition Pasture and browse condition continued to improve in May which was attributed to the cumulative effect of the above normal rains that promoted substantial pasture and browse growth and regeneration. All counties reported the current state of pasture and browse as being good as presented in Table 2. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, May 2020 Pasture Browse Lamu Garissa Embu Lamu Tharaka Nithi Narok Kajiado Isiolo Taita Taveta Meru Laikipia Kilifi West Pokot Nyeri Makueni Kitui Tana River Wajir Marsabit Kwale Makueni Kitui Samburu Turkana Marsabit Kwale Mandera Baringo Samburu Turkana Tana River Wajir Mandera Baringo West Pokot Nyeri Garissa Embu Taita Taveta Meru Kajiado Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Narok Laikipia Kilifi Livestock body condition As illustrated in Table 3, livestock body condition remained good in all the 23 ASAL counties which is largely attributed to the increased availability of forage and water. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, May 2020 Goats Cattle Garissa Embu Tana River Wajir Kajiado Isiolo West Pokot Nyeri Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Meru Garissa Embu Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Tana River Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Meru Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. In comparison to the long term mean, average milk production per household in May 2020 in 16 counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, in seven counties: Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Kajiado, Kitui, Tana River and Kwale average milk production per household was below normal. The below average milk production was attributed to a drop in calving rates, increase in livestock disease incidences and a general reduction in livestock herd sizes. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2020 Milk Baringo Kilifi Kitui Kajiado Embu Garissa Production Garissa Meru North Kajiado Mandera West Pokot Marsabit Isiolo Wajir Samburu Baringo Taita Taveta Laikipia Nyeri (Kieni) Lamu Tana River Makueni Lamu Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Narok Kwale Nyeri Samburu West Pokot Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Embu (Mbeere) Turkana Wajir Isiolo Taita Taveta Kitui Mandera Kwale Laikipia Meru Makueni Narok Turkana Cattle prices In all the 23 ASAL counties cattle prices are improving or have remained stable owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on an upward trend. In addition, across the 23 ASAL counties the prevailing average price for cattle are above or close to the three-year mean price of cattle for the month of May. For instance, in Kilifi, Mandera, West Pokot, Isiolo, Wajir, Narok and Marsabit the current prices are above LTA by 52, 46, 40, 34, 31, 29 and 26 percent respectively which was associated to the improved body condition of cattle across ASAL areas. Table 5 shows the trends in cattle prices in May 2020. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2020 Cattle Tana River Isiolo Kitui Lamu Turkana Nyeri Prices Taita Taveta Nyeri Lamu Narok Baringo Garissa West Pokot Wajir Turkana Laikipia Kitui Marsabit Meru Tharaka Kwale Samburu Kilifi Makueni Embu Baringo Garissa Marsabit Meru Laikipia Narok Samburu Kilifi Tharaka Kwale Mandera Kajiado Makueni Embu Tana River Isiolo Mandera Kajiado West Pokot Wajir Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of May, goat prices in 21 ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA which was attributed to the good body condition of goats. In West Pokot County, for example, the price of a medium-sized two- year old buck increased to Kshs 4,237 from Kshs 4110 recorded in April which was above the LTA price of Kshs 2,877 by 47 percent. Similarly, current average prices for goats in Garissa, Samburu and Turkana were above LTA by 37, 31 and 25 percent respectively. However, goat prices in Marsabit and Makueni counties decreased and were below the 2015-19 average due to closure of markets as a result of measures placed to curb the spread of COVID-19. Table 6.0: Goat prices, May 2020 Goat Turkana Nyeri Kitui Makueni Kwale Baringo Kitui Kilifi Prices Kajiado Kilifi Lamu Marsabit Meru Garissa Isiolo Makueni Garissa Meru Mandera Narok Turkana Laikipia Marsabit Isiolo Narok Tana River Mandera Nyeri Wajir Samburu Wajir Samburu Kajiado Laikipia Baringo Tana River Lamu West Pokot Kwale West Pokot Embu Taita Taveta Embu In marginal agricultural areas, the main crops under cultivation are maize, beans, green grams, cow peas, pigeon peas, millet, and sorghum. Majority of the crops are in fair condition and were at flowering stage of growth. On the other hand, in some areas such as Embu (Mbeere), harvesting of the early planted maize, beans, pigeon peas, cow peas and green grams has started. Maize prices Table 7 displays the trends in maize prices in May 2020. In about 20 out of the 23 ASAL counties, the price of maize fell or remained stable in May. At the same time, the current maize prices are largely below average with over 80 percent of the counties recording prices below or close to the 2015 - 19 LTA. In Embu County, the decrease in maize price was attributed to harvest of various crops including maize, green grams, cowpeas and pigeon peas which had thereby led to replenishing of household stocks. In Makueni, below normal maize prices was as a result of the bumper harvest from the previous season which had continued to ensure a steady supply of the commodity in the local markets. Table 7.0: Maize prices, May 2020 Maize Garissa Marsabit Makueni Embu Tana River Samburu Garissa Kilifi Prices Mandera Samburu Turkana Kitui West Pokot Mandera Narok Tharaka Tana River Baringo Isiolo Narok Makueni Laikipia Baringo Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Lamu Kitui Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kwale Isiolo Nyeri Wajir Taita Taveta Meru Taita Taveta Lamu West Pokot Embu Marsabit Meru Laikipia Access to water The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Return distances to water for households have remained below normal in close to 90 percent of the ASAL counties. The reduction in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the increase in water availability as most open water sources were recharged by the rains received since the start of the long rains season in March. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2020 Distance Taita Taveta West Pokot Wajir Baringo Embu Isiolo from Kwale Tana River Isiolo Garissa Laikipia Kilifi households Lamu Marsabit Meru Kajiado Lamu Kwale to main Samburu Kilifi Tana River Makueni Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Mandera Meru Mandera Kajiado Narok Samburu Baringo Garissa Nyeri Tharaka Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Kitui Turkana Makueni Embu West Pokot Kitui In all counties except in Lamu, access to water for livestock was better in May compared with normal times as animals had to walk shorter distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long term average (LTA). The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, May 2020 Distance Lamu Kwale Taita Taveta Kitui Baringo Kajiado Isiolo from Laikipia West Pokot Wajir Embu Kitui Kilifi livestock Tana River Isiolo Garissa Laikipia Kwale grazing Marsabit Meru Mandera Lamu Makueni Samburu Kilifi Narok Turkana Marsabit area to Turkana Nyeri Samburu West Pokot Meru Mandera Kajiado Tana River Nyeri Baringo Garissa Taita Taveta Tharaka Narok Tharaka Makueni Embu Wajir Terms of trade In all ASAL counties, the current terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month implying a favourable situation for livestock producers as demonstrated in Table 10. Furthermore in 18 ASAL counties, the terms of trade were stable or improved in May 2020. An indication that households could obtain more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat than they did during the previous month. The lagest improvements were in Embu (Mbeere), Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) and Garissa, where terms of trade appreciated by 44, 19, 15 and 5 percent respectively. The improvement in ToT recorded in ASAL areas during the month under review is generally a reflection of rising goat prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2020 Terms of Taita Taveta Lamu Wajir Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo trade West Pokot Meru Taita Taveta Garissa Marsabit (ToT) Tana River Embu Samburu Makueni Tana River Marsabit Kitui Kwale Laikipia Turkana Samburu Nyeri Wajir Mandera West Pokot Laikipia Kilifi Embu Kajiado Baringo Garissa Meru Narok Turkana Narok Kilifi Makueni Isiolo Kitui Mandera Kwale Nyeri Kajiado Tharaka Lamu Health and nutrition The bulletins monitor the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement (Table 11). The nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 20 counties now on a stable or improving trend. This improvement was attributed to higher milk consumption in pastoral counties and improved dietary diversity due to availability of green vegetables and pulses in the marginal agricultural counties. However, in Kajiado, Samburu and Tana River malnutrition prevalence rates were above LTA. In Samburu County, for instance, the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has maintained upward trend since March 2020. The increase in malnutrition cases was attributed low access to health services due to fear of transmission of COVID-19 and hence mothers and caregivers are not taking their children for routine services. Current rate of children at risk of malnutrition in Samburu stands at 26.2 percent which indicates that majority of children are at risk for acute malnutrition. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2020 MUAC Kajiado Laikipia Kilifi Kajiado Baringo Samburu Marsabit Kwale Garissa Laikipia Tana River Baringo Narok Embu Mandera Makueni Isiolo Isiolo Marsabit Garissa Kitui Kilifi Meru Mandera Meru Kitui Narok Tharaka Lamu Lamu Nyeri Taita Taveta Nyeri Makueni Samburu Embu (Mbeere) Kwale Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The months of January to February were one of the wettest period in the ASAL region which together with the above-average rains recorded since March has enhanced the environmental indicators and as a result all counties are currently classified in the normal drought stage with the trend improving in two counties and remaining stable in 19 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, May 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Tana River ,Wajir, Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Taita Marsabit, Kwale Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Lamu, Isiolo, Garissa Recovery 2.0 Projected food security situation In most ASAL areas, pasture and browse quantity and quality is projected to remain in good condition over the next one month which is likely to support enhanced livestock productivity including increase in milk production and improved body condition of livestock. The prevailing good livestock body condition and stable maize prices are likely to maintain the current above average livestock-to-cereals terms of trade during the month of June. In addition, increased milk production is expected to result in improved nutritional status of children. However, ongoing locust invasion in Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu is projected to cause significant damage to forage and crops. Also, the disruption of market operations due to the COVID 19 pandemic is likely to negatively affect food supply and livestock prices which might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. 3.0 Recommendations Food and Safety Net Provision of food and cash transfers to food insecure population targeting vulnerable members of the community affected by recent drought and floods including households which have been severely affected by increasing food prices, reduction in income or loss of jobs. as a result of measures put it place to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health and Nutrition Conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 and support hygiene education promotion including installation of hand washing facilities in public spaces. Provision of face masks, hand sanitizers and soap to vulnerable members of the community. Agriculture Provision of certified seeds and other farm inputs. Upscale ground and aerial spraying to control desert locust infestation and spread. LivestockVeterinary Enhance disease control measures including livestock vaccination. Support pasture establishment and conservation as well as stockpiling of county strategic hay reserves. Water Promote rain water harvesting. Community sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th May 2020 BARINGO County 85.07 81.89 Following the good rains received in March, April and May, current Central 90.68 84.87 vegetation greenness in all sub-counties is above normal. Eldama 79.69 73.66 Mogotio 80.9 75.73 North 89.25 83.66 South 85.83 80.05 Tiaty 84.68 84.94 MANDERA County 66.83 67.93 Only Mandera East sub-county is in the normal vegetation greenness class Banissa 53.54 59.59 while all other sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. M. East 46.8 48.59 Lafey 55.12 60.49 M. North 68.57 70.61 M. South 82.52 74.92 M. West 72.39 74.81 TURKANA County 117.33 101.84 As a result of the above normal rains received during the MAM rainy T. Central 119.13 109.17 season, vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T. East 70.38 75.82 T. Loima 136.92 116.93 T. North 120.08 95.46 T. South 118.85 114.95 T. West 134.84 110.35 MARSABIT County 70.51 64.72 Vegetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties. Laisamis 76.21 66.68 Moyale 57.89 54.44 N. Horr 69.82 65.89 Saku 82.9 71.03 WAJIR County 58.83 52.56 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band. However, W. East 66.44 60.63 slight decline was noted in Wajir Eldas which currently has normal vegetation greenness. W. Eldas 49.22 42.09 W. North 72.1 65.45 W. South 53.46 49.48 W. Tarbaj 64.03 61.25 W. West 55.31 39.63 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category SAMBURU County 77.19 74.58 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S. East 70.01 69.34 S. North 83.45 78.89 S. West 84.93 81.14 GARISSA County 68.44 65.80 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 61.71 66.81 Daadab 52.48 54.76 Fafi 73.03 69.15 Ijara 85.62 75.80 Lagdera 59.29 57.21 Dujis 56.3 58.88 ISIOLO County 64.03 62.60 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. I. North 64.46 61.01 I. South 63.37 65.03 TANA County 87.85 80.23 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 68.03 66.22 Galole 96.83 83.22 Garsen 99.05 90.24 KAJIADO County 96.98 86.35 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 91.35 79.00 K. East 94.6 83.74 K. North 88.73 81.20 K. South 94.11 85.04 K. West 103.7 92.80 LAIKIPIA County 77.27 72.70 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. L. East 82.55 78.01 L. North 79.13 72.65 L. West 71.25 70.24 THARAKA County 80.09 67.75 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chulga 89.35 77.31 Maara 86.05 75.10 Tharaka 74.69 61.79 WEST County 96.36 85.48 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 94.58 81.69 Kapenguria 101.71 87.41 Pokot South 102.96 93.60 Sigor 91.17 85.96 EMBU County 94.92 83.27 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 92.39 80.13 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 93.57 82.56 Mbeere South 97.50 85.45 Runyenjes 91.15 80.31 KITUI County 94.70 87.54 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 98.2 87.17 Kitui East 98.27 89.93 Mwingi Central 88.63 84.17 Mwingi North 76.87 73.20 Mwingi West 100.67 93.55 Kitui Rural 103.79 93.61 Kitui South 100.27 92.24 Kitui West 101.24 89.50 MAKUENI County 99.46 89.91 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 103.38 93.78 Kibwezi East 95.86 88.93 Kibwezi West 99.87 90.59 Kilome 105.12 89.69 Makueni 98.23 86.05 Mbooni 102.59 95.41 MERU County 85.35 79.05 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 92.3 81.32 Central Imenti 86.55 81.59 Igembe Central 82.13 78.94 Igembe North 80.13 75.34 Igembe South 75.26 73.68 North Imenti 90.26 83.19 South Imenti 85.82 81.17 Tigania East 82.68 75.79 Tigania West 99.46 89.03 NYERI County 86.66 81.05 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 83.79 79.34 Mathira 79.97 78.99 Mukurweini 106.72 99.36 Town 98.41 91.35 Othaya 90.37 77.78 Tetu 90.50 81.55 KILIFI County 86.20 76.28 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 95.66 89.34 Kaloleni 100.39 83.13 Magarini 80.38 71.93 Malindi 83.46 67.53 Kilifi-North 82.41 61.17 Rabai 99.48 88.94 Kilifi-South 95.55 78.12 KWALE County 101.81 86.79 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 105.45 90.87 Lungalunga 97.30 86.23 Matuga 96.54 75.85 Msambweni 93.58 68.67 LAMU County 89.19 85.36 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 88.89 84.61 Lamu West 89.36 85.8 TAITA County 107.94 95.94 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. TAVETA Mwatate 107.36 96.26 Taveta 103.13 92.63 Voi 109.76 96.66 Wundanyi 112.32 102.6 NAROK County 91.78 84.92 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Narok-East 97.00 89.99 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Emurua Dikirr 83.02 69.73 Kilgoris 85.70 74.97 Narok-North 84.99 83.39 Narok-South 94.33 85.27 Narok-West 94.09 88.88 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT 5. RECOVERY fluctuate outside expected return to seasonal norms 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and production All indicators are outside indicators fluctuate outside normal ranges",
            "July_2020.pdf": "July 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS The good performance of the March-April- However, ongoing locust invasion in Turkana, Marsabit May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall has and Samburu is projected to cause significant damage to resulted to high vegetation regeneration with forage and crops. Moreover, the disruption of market all arid and semi-arid counties recording operations due to the COVID 19 pandemic is likely to vegetation greenness values that are above negatively affect food supply and livestock prices which normal ranges. might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. Body condition of all species of livestock remained good across ASAL counties. The Overall, the above-average rains recorded since March improvement in livestock body condition was has enhanced the environmental indicators across the attributed to availability of adequate pasture ASAL region and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties are and browse and short trekking distances from currently classified in the normal drought stage with the grazing areas to water points. Consequently, trend improving in one county, worsening in five while 17 livestock productivity especially milk counties recorded a stable trend. On-going harvesting of pulses, maize, millet and sorghum has replenished household food stocks in the marginal agricultural counties thereby improving food availability. In adition, during the month of June prices of cereals declined further while those of livestock remained above average which led to improved terms of trade for livestock keepers in nearly all the ASAL counties. Drought phase classification, May 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kwale, Kilifi, , Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Makueni, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi Isiolo, (Tharaka) Lamu, Tana River Garissa 1.0 Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall A good number of ASAL counties like Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River, Mandera, Taita Taveta and Kitui experienced generally dry conditions during the month of June. However, a few counties such as Baringo, West Pokot, Turkana, Laikipia, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi and Samburu recorded substantial amounts of rainfall which were mostly above their long term average for the month of June. Overall for many ASAL areas, the above normal March-April-May (MAM) 2020 rains have supported regeneration of pasture and browse and has been favourable to crop production. Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late June 2019 with that in late June 2020. The good performance of the March-April-May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has resulted to high vegetation regeneration with all arid and semi-arid counties recording vegetation greenness values that are above normal ranges. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June 2020 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2019 and June 2020 Water sources In almost all ASAL counties, majority of the open water sources such as water pans and dams have water and thus the water situation remained unchanged from what was reported in May 2020. As a result, average return distances to water for both households and livestock in most counties are stable and remained within seasonal ranges. Livestock production Livestock production indicators continued improving during the month of June. Body condition of all species of livestock remained good across ASAL counties. The improvement in livestock body condition was attributed to availability of adequate pasture and browse and short trekking distances from grazing areas to water points. In addition, livestock productivity especially milk Pasture and browse condition Most counties reported good pasture and browse condition with few counties including Makueni Mandera, Tana River, Meru, Turkana and Wajir classifying the current state of pasture and browse as being fair as shown in Table 2 Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, June 2020 Pasture Browse P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Makueni Baringo Lamu Mandera Baringo Embu Mandera Garissa Isiolo Tana River Garissa Isiolo Tana River Kajiado Kilifi Meru Kajiado Kilifi Meru Kitui Kwale Wajir Samburu Kwale Turkana Laikipia Embu Makueni Laikipia Lamu Wajir Marsabit Narok Marsabit Narok Samburu Nyeri Turkana Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Taita Taveta Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition As illustrated in Table 3, livestock body condition in all the 23 ASAL counties was noticeably good in comparison to previous years and similar time last year which was largely attributed to enhanced availability of forage and water. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, June 2020 Cattle Goats Poor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Lamu Turkana Kwale Lamu Turkana Kwale Baringo Mandera Isiolo Baringo Mandera Isiolo Embu Marsabit Kilifi Embu Marsabit Kilifi Samburu Kitui Samburu Kitui Kajiado Makueni Kajiado Makueni Garissa Laikipia Garissa Laikipia Tana River Wajir Tana River Wajir West Pokot Narok West Pokot Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Meru Tharaka Nithi Meru Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. In comparison to the long term mean, average milk production per household in June 2020 in 14 counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, in seven counties: Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Kitui, Narok, Tana River and Embu average milk production per household was below normal. The below average milk production was attributed to a reduction in the proportion of lactating cattle and a drop in kidding in goats, increase in livestock disease incidences and a general reduction in livestock herd sizes. Table 4.0: Milk production, June 2020 Milk Garissa Baringo Embu Kwale Baringo Garissa Production Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Samburu Embu Kitui Lamu Kwale Marsabit Tana River Isiolo Makueni Mandera Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Meru Nyeri Meru Samburu Turkana Lamu Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Mandera Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Marsabit West Pokot Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Cattle prices In all the 23 ASAL counties cattle prices are improving or have remained stable owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on an upward trend. In most ASAL areas the prevailing average price for cattle are above or close to the three-year mean price of cattle for the month of June. For instance, in West Pokot, Tharaka, Wajir, Tana River and Kajiado the current prices are above LTA by 36, 32, 30, 28 and 21 percent respectively which was associated to the improved body condition of cattle across ASAL areas. Table 5 shows the trends in cattle prices in June 2020. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, June 2020 Cattle Taita Taveta Lamu Embu Kitui Turkana Nyeri Prices West Pokot Wajir Kitui Makueni Baringo Garissa Tana River Isiolo Laikipia Wajir Tharaka Kwale Marsabit Kajiado Mandera Lamu Marsabit Kajiado Makueni Narok Meru Samburu Embu Tharaka Kwale Samburu Tana River Meru Baringo Garissa Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Nyeri Taita Taveta Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of June, goat prices in 21 ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA which was attributed to the good body condition of goats. In Samburu County, for example, the price of a medium-sized two-year old goat increased to Kshs 3875 from Kshs 3,570 recorded in May which was above the LTA price of Kshs 2,795 by 39 percent. Similarly, current average prices for goats in Wajir, Laikipia, Narok and Tana River were above LTA by 33, 25, 18 and 16 percent respectively. However, goat prices in Makueni counties remained below the 2015-19 average due to closure of the main livestock markets as a result of measures placed to curb the spread of COVID-19. Table 6.0: Goat prices, June 2020 Goat Samburu Embu Isiolo Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kitui Isiolo Prices Turkana Nyeri Kitui Tana River Garissa Kilifi Meru Kajiado Kilifi Lamu Samburu Turkana Narok Garissa Meru Mandera Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Laikipia Narok Marsabit Kajiado Makueni Lamu Baringo Kwale Kwale Marsabit West Pokot Wajir Embu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Wajir T aita Taveta Taita Taveta The general condition of crops in the ASAL counties such as Kitui, Makueni, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka, Meru North, Narok, and Nyeri (Kieni) is fairly good and households expect to realize a normal harvest. Currently, harvesting of beans, green grams, cowpeas, millet, sorghum maize and dolichos has started in most of the marginal agricultural areas. Maize prices In most of the ASAL counties, the current maize prices are below average with about 80 percent of the counties recording prices below or close to the 2015 - 19 LTA. In Tharaka, for example, the average price of a kilogramme of maize in June was Kshs 36 which is 18 percent lower than the three-year average price of Kshs 44. Likewise, average maize prices in Embu (Mbeere), Makueni, Meru (Meru North), and Kilifi were below LTA by 27, 20, 13 and 10 percent respectively. The below normal maize prices recorded in the marginal agricultural counties was as a result of abundant availability of the commodity due to start of harvesting in most areas. Table 7 shows the trends in maize prices in June 2020. Table 7.0: Maize prices, June 2020 Maize Garissa Samburu West Pokot Narok Kwale Samburu Garissa Tana River Prices Mandera Baringo Makueni Embu Lamu Mandera Narok Lamu Isiolo Laikipia Meru Meru Laikipia Baringo Kwale Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Marsabit Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tharaka Isiolo Tana River T aita Taveta Marsabit Embu Turkana Turkana Kitui Wajir Makueni Nyeri Access to water The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Return distances to water for households have remained below normal in about 90 percent of the ASAL counties. However, return distances to water sources for households have started to increase in a number of counties. For instance, in Kwale County, households had to walk an average of 4.4 km in June which is an increase of 63 percent compared to the distance recorded in the previous month of 2.7 km. In the same way, in Tharaka, average household return distances increased to 3 km in June from 2.8 km in May representing an increase of 7 percent. The observed increase in average distances to water points was attributed to the cessation of the long rains which occurred in May and the corresponding drying up of open water sources. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, June 2020 Distance from Kwale Taita Taveta Wajir , West Pokot Lamu Laikipia Isiolo, Kilifi households to Lamu Tana River Nyeri, Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Kwale, Marsabit main water Tharaka Makueni Baringo, Isiolo West Pokot Turkana Meru, Samburu sources Mandera Embu, Garissa Wajir Baringo, Garissa Kajiado Meru, Narok Kajiado, Kitui Laikipia Kilifi, Kitui Embu, Makueni M arsabit Turkana Mandera, Narok The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 9. In all counties except in Kwale and Laikipia, access to water for livestock was better in June compared with normal times as animals had to walk shorter distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long term average (LTA). This was attributed to the average to above average performance of the March to May rains which supported significant recharge of water sources as well as triggering substantial pasture and browse regeneration in most ASAL counties. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, June 2020 Distance from Kwale Lamu Isiolo, Kajiado Lamu Kilifi Makueni, Marsabit livestock L aikipia M akueni Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Turkana, Garissa grazing area Marsabit, Nyeri Samburu Mandera, Narok to main water Narok, Samburu Taita Wajir, Kajiado Wajir, West Pokot Taveta Kitui, Laikipia sources Baringo, Embu West Pokot Baringo, Embu Meru, Garissa Isiolo, Kwale Mandera, Turkana Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Terms of trade In all ASAL counties, the current terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month implying a favourable situation for livestock producers as demonstrated in Table 10. Furthermore in 18 ASAL counties, the terms of trade were stable or improved in June 2020. An indication that households could obtain more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat than they did during the previous month. The enhanced ToT was as a result of the good body condition of goats which translated to favourable market prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, June 2020 Terms of Marsabit Kitui Mandera Kajiado Narok, Embu Isiolo trade Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Baringo Makueni (ToT) Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Samburu Garissa Meru Turkana Narok Tana River Kilifi Lamu Makueni Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Kitui Tharaka Kwale Kwale Kajiado Wajir Mandera Tana River Embu Nyeri West Pokot Lamu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Meru West Pokot Health and nutrition Table 11 illustrates the trends in the prevalence of malnutrition as indicated by the mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in June 2020. Overall, the trend in most ASAL counties is improving or stable. In the pastoral counties, improvement in the nutrition status of children is attributed to milk availability while in the marginal agricultural areas the positive trend is associated better dietary diversity due to availability of green vegetables, pulses and cereals. However, a worsening trend in the nutrition status of children was recorded in Isiolo, Narok and Kajiado. For example, in Narok County, the proportion of children under five years of age who are at risk of malnutrition rose to 6.6 percent in June from 5.5 percent in May. The increase was linked to limited access to health services since some of the caregivers stopped taking their children for routine health monitoring and treatment because of fear of COVID-19 while in Isiolo County the worsening situation was associated with rising cases of intestinal worms, increase in upper respiratory tract infections and diarrheal ailments among the under-fives. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2020 MUAC Lamu Laikipia Kilifi Garissa Embu Baringo Isiolo Samburu Marsabit Kwale Kilifi Kitui Lamu Kajiado Tana River Baringo Narok Mandera Makueni Kwale Narok Makueni Isiolo Marsabit Meru Garissa Kitui Samburu Laikipia Mandera Meru Tharaka Wajir Tharaka Nyeri Tana River Nyeri Kajiado Nyeri Taita Taveta Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The months of January to February were one of the wettest period in the ASAL region which together with the above-average rains recorded since March has enhanced the environmental indicators and as a result all counties are currently classified in the normal drought phase with the trend improving in one county, worsening in five and remaining stable in 17 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, June 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Marsabit, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Makueni, Isiolo, Kilifi, , Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Garissa Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Lamu, Tana River Recovery 2.0 Projected food security situation Following the above-average March to May long rains received in most of the ASAL areas, pasture and water availability for livestock has increased significantly. In the pastoral areas, the available forage and water is projected to last up to the next rains in October. The abundant rangeland resources are expected to result to increased livestock productivity, especially average to above- average livestock prices and near-average milk production. In the marginal agricultural counties, it is expected that crop production will be average to above average hence the long rains crop harvest is likely to improve food security in most of the semi- arid counties by providing casual wage labour income earning opportunities and increasing household food availability during the period between July and September 2020. However, ongoing locust invasion in Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu is projected to cause significant damage to forage and crops. Also, the disruption of market operations due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to negatively affect food supply and livestock prices which might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. 3.0 Recommendations Enhance implementation of priority drought preparedness interventions Promote community based livestock disease surveillance and also intensify livestock disease control measures Continued advocacy for pasture conservation including deferred grazing management and participatory rangeland management Sensitize farmers on appropriate post-harvest management techniques in the marginal agricultural and agro-pastoral areas. Enhance awareness raising on COVID-19 and conduct campaigns on hygiene and other disease prevention and containment measures Upscale nutritional screening in areas with high prevalence of children at risk of malnutrition. Provision of water treatment chemicals for households getting water from open water sources. Continue monitoring and conduct control measure (both aerial and ground spraying operations) to supress the spread of desert locust in affected counties such as Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th June 2020 BARINGO County 81.89 87.93 Vegetation greenness remained above normal in all parts of the county Central 84.87 86.57 attributed to the cumulative effects of the enhanced rainfall received during the MAM season. The county also received above average rainfall in Eldama 73.66 69.71 June 2020 Mogotio 75.73 85.34 North 83.66 87.58 South 80.05 82.01 Tiaty 84.94 95.13 MANDERA County 67.93 83.38 Significant improvement especially for Mandera East which currently is in Banissa 59.59 80.18 the above normal vegetation greenness band from normal vegetation greenness recorded in May M. East 48.59 68.71 Lafey 60.49 84.64 M. North 70.61 87.93 M. South 74.92 79.77 M. West 74.81 87.45 TURKANA County 101.84 85.05 Vegetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties T. Central 109.17 93.37 T. East 75.82 87.62 T. Loima 116.93 103.10 T. North 95.46 63.80 T. South 114.95 107.04 T. West 110.35 84.65 MARSABIT County 64.72 64.30 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal Laisaimis 66.68 69.38 Moyale 54.44 59.22 N. Horr 65.89 62.30 Saku 71.03 72.26 WAJIR County 52.56 54.53 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band. However, W. East 60.63 68.36 slight decline was observed in Eldas and Wajir South which currently are in the normal vegetation greenness class while Wajir West has deteriorated W. Eldas 42.09 43.05 further to moderate vegetation deficit W. North 65.45 75.55 W. South 49.48 48.22 W. Tarbaj 61.25 68.86 W. West 39.63 32.06 SAMBURU County 74.58 78.93 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness S. East 69.34 71.98 S. North 78.89 85.39 S. West 81.14 85.03 GARISSA County 65.80 69.71 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period Balambala 66.81 82.63 Daadab 54.76 63.51 Fafi 69.15 74.06 Ijara 75.80 69.47 Lagdera 57.21 56.96 Dujis 58.88 68.19 ISIOLO County 62.60 53.64 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal I. North 61.01 51.43 I. South 65.03 57.01 TANA County 80.23 78.65 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness RIVER Bura 66.22 79.54 Galole 83.22 77.19 Garsen 90.24 78.82 KAJIADO County 86.35 77.99 The entire county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band K. Central 79.00 70.95 K. East 83.74 71.94 K. North 81.20 68.6 K. South 85.04 75.89 K. West 92.80 86.50 LAIKIPIA County 72.70 79.41 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period L. East 78.01 79.93 L. North 72.65 80.31 L. West 70.24 77.96 THARAKA County 67.75 65.19 The county and its sub counties are in above normal vegetation greenness NITHI Chulga 77.31 75.28 Maara 75.1 71.74 Tharaka 61.79 65.19 WEST County 85.48 82.92 Vegetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties POKOT Kacheliba 81.69 81.54 Kapenguria 87.41 83.57 Pokot South 93.60 79.24 Sigor 85.96 87.09 EMBU County 83.27 75.52 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal Manyatta 80.13 77.99 Mbeere North 82.56 74.16 Mbeere South 85.45 74.59 Runyenjes 80.31 79.27 KITUI County 87.54 84.27 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period Kitui Central 87.17 84.65 Kitui East 89.93 88.77 Mwingi Central 84.17 85.05 Mwingi North 73.20 71.03 Mwingi West 93.55 89.08 Kitui Rural 93.61 88.24 Kitui South 92.24 86.55 Kitui West 89.50 86.82 MAKUENI County 89.91 81.63 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Kaiti 93.78 86.36 greenness above normal in all parts of the county Kibwezi East 88.93 77.38 Kibwezi West 90.59 77.57 Kilome 89.69 78.77 Makueni 86.05 85.61 Mbooni 95.41 94.39 MERU County 79.05 73.15 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county Buuri 81.32 70.56 Central Imenti 81.59 70.25 Igembe Central 78.94 80.73 Igembe North 75.34 71.51 Igembe South 73.68 79.03 North Imenti 83.19 71.40 South Imenti 81.17 75.56 Tigania East 75.79 66.97 Tigania West 89.03 73.97 NYERI County 81.05 77.65 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county Kieni 79.34 76.80 Mathira 78.99 78.20 Mukurweini 99.36 89.79 Town 91.35 84.71 Othaya 77.78 73.85 Tetu 81.55 75.62 KILIFI County 76.28 71.87 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation Ganze 89.34 81.43 greenness. Kaloleni 83.13 74.52 Magarini 71.93 68.80 Malindi 67.53 68.48 Kilifi-North 61.17 62.08 Rabai 88.94 78.25 Kilifi-South 78.12 70.04 KWALE County 86.79 72.11 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period Kinango 90.87 74.06 Lungalunga 86.23 73.97 Matuga 75.85 65.20 Msambweni 68.67 57.46 LAMU County 85.36 80.47 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation Lamu East 84.61 78.43 greenness Lamu West 85.80 81.65 TAITA County 95.94 83.85 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with TAVETA Mwatate 96.26 90.80 vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county Taveta 92.63 83.68 Voi 96.66 80.48 Wundanyi 102.60 100.51 NAROK County 84.92 73.83 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county Narok-East 89.99 77.20 Emurua Dikirr 69.73 59.95 Kilgoris 74.97 64.25 Narok-North 83.39 71.93 Narok-South 85.27 74.38 Narok-West 88.88 78.24 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 3. ALARM 5. RECOVERY Environmental and production indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms 2. ALERT 1. NORMAL indicators fluctuate indicators show no outside expected unusual fluctuations",
            "August_2020.pdf": "August 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS The above average rainfall recorded during In comparison to the long term average, average milk the March to May rainy season has led to production per household in July 2020 in 14 counties enhancement of the environmental indicators was above or close to LTA which was attributed to and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties are increased availability of water, pasture and browse. currently categorized in the normal drought phase with eight counties reporting a In the marginal agricultural counties crops are generally worsening trend while 14 counties recorded in favourable condition due to the enhanced March to a stable trend and the trend improving in one May rainfall and crop yields are expected to be above county. average across ASAL counties. The 2020 March-April- May cropping season was characterized by a timely Body condition of all species of livestock start and harvesting is currently ongoing in most of the remained good across ASAL counties. The semi-arid counties. improvement in livestock body condition was attributed to availability of adequate In almost all the 23 ASAL counties the terms of trade pasture and browse and short trekking (ToT) are above the long term average for the month distances from grazing areas to water points. while in 20 counties the ToT are showing a stable or Consequently, livestock productivity upward trend. The favourable ToT recorded in July especially milk production has increased in 2020 were driven by the significantly above average most ASAL areas. goat prices. Drought phase classification, July 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Baringo Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Tana Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Kitui, River, Mandera, Meru (Meru North), Narok, Embu (Mbeere), Kwale, Nyeri Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), (Kieni), Makueni Turkana, West Pokot 1.0 Drought status 1.1 Drought indicator Rainfall General dry weather conditions prevailed over the south-eastern (Kitui, Makueni) and north eastern (Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo and Wajir) counties. However, counties mainly in the north western part of the country such as Baringo, West Pokot, Turkana and Samburu and Coastal counties (Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale) the received significant amounts of rainfall that was above the July long term average. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions accompanied by light rains occurred in some ASAL areas such as Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Meru (Meru North), Embu (Mbeere) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kajiado and Laikipia. The good performance of the March-April-May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has resulted to high vegetation regeneration with all the 23 arid and semi-arid counties currently classified in the above normal vegetation greenness category as shown in Figure 1 which compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late July 2019 with that in late July 2020. However, a slight deterioration in the state of the vegetation was observed in three sub counties namely: Wajir South, Wajir West and Isiolo North which are currently classified in the normal vegetation greenness band. Detailed VCI values for July 2020 disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Annex 1. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) July 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) July 2020 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), July 2019 and July 2020 Livestock production Livestock production indicators remained stable during the month of July. The stable trend in both livestock body condition and milk production was attributed to good pasture and browse availability and reduction in the trekking distances from grazing fields to water points. Pasture and browse condition Pasture and browse condition in most ASAL areas is good to fair (Table 1) mainly as a result of the favourable rainfall performance of both October to December 2019 short rains and the long rains in 2020 which has impacted positively on regeneration of pasture and browse in most counties. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, July 2020 Pasture Browse Poor Fair Good Poor Fair Good Embu Garissa Baringo Kilifi Embu Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Kitui Kwale Wajir Garissa Laikipia Lamu Makueni Lamu Narok Isiolo Marsabit Narok Mandera Tharaka Nithi Makueni Samburu Nyeri Marsabit Taita Taveta Mandera Turkana Kitui Meru West Pokot Meru Kajiado Kwale Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Wajir Taita Taveta Kajiado Laikipia West Pokot Livestock body condition Body condition for most livestock is currently good compared to fair normally as summarized in Table 2. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, July 2020 Cattle Goats P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Isiolo Garissa Kajiado Wajir Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Lamu Laikipia Baringo Isiolo Taita Taveta Narok Wajir Makueni Mandera L amu West Pokot Embu Marsabit Kitui Tana River Meru Turkana Kwale Samburu Kilifi Samburu Kilifi Makueni Mandera Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Marsabit Kitui Taita Taveta Narok Laikipia Baringo West Pokot Embu Turkana Kwale Tana River Meru Garissa Kajiado Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is illustrated in Table 3. In comparison to the long term average, average milk production per household in July 2020 in 14 counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, in eight counties: Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Mandera, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River and Embu average milk production per household was below normal. The below average milk production was attributed to a reduction in the proportion of lactating cattle and a drop in kidding in goats, increase in livestock disease incidences and a general reduction in livestock herd sizes. Table 3.0: Milk production, July 2020 Milk Baringo Kajiado Kwale Baringo Garissa Kwale Production Makueni Meru Kitui Kitui Meru Samburu Kilifi Narok Mandera Makueni Embu Tharaka Nithi Garissa Wajir Marsabit Marsabit Isiolo Nyeri Isiolo Embu Narok Kajiado Mandera Lamu Samburu Tana River Lamu Nyeri Tana River Turkana Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Turkana Kilifi Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot West Pokot Cattle prices Table 4 shows the trends in cattle prices in July 2020. In all the ASAL counties current cattle prices are higher than the long term average for the month of July owing mainly to the fact that cattle are still in good body condition. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, July 2020 Cattle Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Tana River West Pokot Kwale Tharaka Nithi Prices Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Samburu Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Mandera, Marsabit Meru Laikipia Taita Taveta (Meru North), Narok, Baringo Makueni Samburu, Taita Taveta, Kajiado Turkana Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa (Tharaka), Turkana, West Meru Kilifi Pokot, Embu (Mbeere), Lamu Isiolo Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Embu Narok Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni), Kitui Goat prices During the month of July goat prices were close to or above the 2015-19 average in a all ASAL counties. Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 5.0: Goat prices, July 2020 Goat Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Marsabit Embu Kilifi Turkana Garissa Prices Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Kwale Mandera, Marsabit Meru Kajiado Laikipia Narok Samburu (Meru North), Narok, Kitui Baringo Meru Wajir Samburu, Taita Taveta, Lamu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Makueni Taita Taveta (Tharaka), Turkana, West West Pokot Pokot, Embu (Mbeere), Tana River Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Marsabit Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni), In nearly all the marginal agricultural counties such as Kitui, Makueni, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka, Meru North, Narok, and Nyeri (Kieni) crops are generally in favourable condition due to the enhanced March-April-May (MAM) rainfall. The MAM cropping season was characterized by a timely start and harvesting was ongoing in most areas. Crop yields are expected to be above average across ASAL counties. Maize prices Table 6 demonstrates the trends in maize prices in July 2020. In most of the ASAL counties, the current maize prices are below average with almost 90 percent of the counties recording prices below or close to the 2015 - 19 LTA. In Kitui, for instance, the average price of a kilograms of maize in July was Kshs 34 which is 23 percent lower than the three-year average price of Kshs 44. Likewise, average maize prices in Narok, Meru (Meru North), Embu (Mbeere), Nyeri (Kieni), and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) were below LTA by 21, 20, 16, 15 and 13 percent respectively. Maize prices will likely be on a reducing trend in the next three months as harvesting will have been completed and households will have stocks in store hence reducing demand. Table 6.0: Maize prices, July 2020 Maize Garissa Baringo West Pokot Narok Kwale Samburu Garissa Tana River Prices Lamu Kwale Samburu Kitui Lamu Mandera Narok Mandera Marsabit Kajiado Isiolo Meru Laikipia Baringo Tana River Makueni Embu Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Wajir Laikipia Meru West Pokot Tharaka Isiolo Kilifi Nyeri Marsabit Embu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kitui Taita Taveta Makueni Nyeri Turkana Taita Taveta Access to water Return distances to watering points for households have significantly reduced due to improvements in water availability. For example, return distances range between 3 and 6 km compared to five kilometres normally in Wajir, 1-2 km compared to 4-10 km normally in Isiolo while in Garissa and Mandera, distances are normal ranging between 5 and10 km. In Tana River, return distances are one kilometre compared to 1-3 km. Similarly, return distances to water sources are normal at less than one kilometre across Kilifi County and in the mixed farming zones of Kwale, Lamu and Taita Taveta. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, July 2020 Distance from Kajiado Embu Tana River Meru Baringo Taita Taveta Embu Garissa households to Kwale Laikipia Samburu Nyeri Kwale Marsabit Isiolo Kajiado main water Lamu Wajir Makueni Kitui Makueni Turkana Kilifi Kitui sources Mandera Turkana Isiolo Meru Laikipia Narok Nyeri Marsabit Garissa Narok Tana River Tharaka West Pokot Tharaka Baringo Kilifi Lamu Samburu Taita Taveta Mandera West Pokot Wajir The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. In 16 counties, the average distance to water for livestock is shorter than normal for the time of year largely attributed to enhanced pasture availability which has made livestock to graze close to existing water points. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, July 2020 Distance from Garissa Embu Tana River Meru Baringo Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir livestock Kwale Kitui Baringo Isiolo Lamu West Pokot Samburu Narok grazing area Tharaka Laikipia Turkana Kajiado Meru Turkana Embu Garissa to main water Lamu Makueni Narok K wale Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Kilifi Kitui Kilifi sources Mandera Wajir Laikipia Makueni Samburu Nyeri Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Marsabit West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Terms of trade Table 9 summarises the goat-to-maize price ratio. In almost all the 23 ASAL counties the terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month while in 20 counties the ToT are showing a stable or upward trend. The favourable ToT recorded in July 2020 were driven by the significantly above average goat prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, July 2020 Terms of Marsabit Kitui Wajir Makueni Baringo Laikipia Wajir trade Samburu Nyeri Kajiado Mandera Nyeri Meru (ToT) Laikipia Kilifi Kwale Tharaka Nithi Mandera Kajiado Narok Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo West Pokot Turkana Narok Lamu Tana River Makueni Isiolo Embu Marsabit Tharaka Kwale Kitui Samburu Tana River Embu Turkana West Pokot Lamu Garissa Taita Taveta Meru Kilifi Health and nutrition The proportion of children aged below five years in ASAL counties who are at risk of malnutrition is estimated using the mid-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) method (Table 10). In July 2020, counties such as Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo, Lamu, Samburu, and Tana River recorded MUAC rates above LTA implying that the nutritional status of children during the month was worse than normal times. The high malnutrition rates in these counties was largely due to poor infant and child care feeding practices and high diseases prevalence. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2020 Mid Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Kilifi Embu Baringo Garissa Upper Arm Isiolo Marsabit Kwale Meru Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Circumference Lamu Baringo Narok Laikipia Lamu Makueni Mandera Nyeri Makueni Kitui Kwale Marsabit Narok Samburu Mandera Meru Samburu Wajir Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Turkana Turkana Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Kajiado West Pokot 1.2 Drought phase classification The above average rainfall recorded during the March to May rainy season has led to enhancement of the environmental indicators and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase. As at the end of July, eight counties were reporting a worsening trend, 14 counties recorded a stable trend with the trend improving in one county as shown in Table 11. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, July 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Kitui, Tana River, Mandera , Meru (Meru Embu (Mbeere), Makueni, North), Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Nyeri (Kieni), Kwale Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Pokot Recovery 2.0 Recommendations Provision of food assistance and cash transfers targeting vulnerable households across ASAL counties. Installation of water harvesting and storage structures such as water pans and tanks. Support livestock disease surveillance through training of community disease reporters and conduct livestock vaccination campaigns to curb the spread of notifiable disease. Promote pasture establishment and livestock feed conservation including controlled grazing. Promotion of appropriate post-harvest management practices in particular targeting farmers in the agro pastoral areas. Boost community sensitization campaigns on COVID-19 preventive measures including promotion of hand washing and other hygiene practices. Awareness creation on child care practices and provision of essential nutrition commodities to reduce cases of malnutrition among children. Conduct inter-county and cross border peace dialogue meetings targeting conflict hotspots to facilitate peaceful coexistence and sharing of resources. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th July 2020 BARINGO County 87.93 93.94 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness, the situation Central 86.57 91.29 has Improved compared to the previous month of June. Eldama 69.71 77.92 Mogotio 85.34 93.78 North 87.58 93.44 South 82.01 85.50 Tiaty 95.13 101.21 MANDERA County 83.38 92.45 The county has recorded improvement in vegetation greenness above Banissa 80.18 84.13 normal in the month of July compared to the previous month of June, with all of its sub counties a recording improvement in Vegetation condition. M. East 68.71 78.75 Lafey 84.64 97.08 M. North 87.93 94.73 M. South 79.77 93.21 M. West 87.45 94.13 TURKANA County 85.05 82.80 Significant stability in VCI for the county though below the value recorded T. Central 93.37 94.79 in the month of June. All sub counties having recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of July as compared to the month of T. East 87.62 85.65 T. Loima 103.1 98.65 T. North 63.80 65.03 T. South 107.04 96.97 T. West 84.65 81.57 MARSABIT County 64.30 64.24 Stability in the VCI condition for the above normal vegetation greenness Laisaimis 69.38 70.29 scale was noticed in the month of July compared with the previous month of June. Greater improvement in VCI value was reported in Saku sub county. Moyale 59.22 61.54 N. Horr 62.30 60.78 Saku 72.26 77.81 WAJIR County 54.53 61.41 There was an improvement in the vegetation condition in the entire county W. East 68.36 73.09 with exception of Wajir South and Wajir West that had normal vegetation greenness. W. Eldas 43.05 57.81 W. North 75.55 87.19 W. South 48.22 48.66 W. Tarbaj 68.86 79.32 W. West 32.06 42.50 SAMBURU County 78.93 79.43 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness. All the sub- S. East 71.98 71.73 counties recorded improvement in vegetation greenness above normal in S. North 85.39 86.23 t he month of July as compared to the previous month of June. S. West 85.03 87.35 GARISSA County 69.71 68.08 The entire County has vegetation greenness above normal and vegetation Balambala 82.63 85.89 stability across all its sub counties Daadab 63.51 63.99 Fafi 74.06 69.77 Ijara 69.47 64.46 Lagdera 56.96 60.33 Dujis 68.19 67.39 ISIOLO County 53.64 50.63 Stability in vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation I. North 51.43 49.88 greenness above normal in all parts of the county except for Isiolo North that has normal vegetation greenness. I. South 57.01 51.77 TANA County 78.65 75.43 The county and all sub counties remained at above normal vegetation RIVER Bura 79.54 86.16 greenness condition. This situation remained stable in July as compared to last month of June. Galole 77.19 71.36 Garsen 78.82 68.87 KAJIADO County 77.99 79.43 Improvement noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at K. Central 70.95 71.14 above normal vegetation greenness conditions. All the sub-counties have stable vegetation condition in the month of July compared to the month of K. East 71.94 69.13 K. North 68.60 62.49 K. South 75.89 75.26 K. West 86.50 92.32 LAIKIPIA County 79.41 87.75 The county Improved in vegetation greenness and in above normal L. East 79.93 84.02 vegetation greenness. Significant improvement noted in Laikipia West, Laikipia North and Laikipia East when month of July and June are compared. L. North 80.31 90.12 L. West 77.96 85.09 THARAKA County 65.19 65.9 The county and its sub counties are in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chulga 75.28 78.52 The situation improved slightly when compared to the previous month of Maara 71.74 76.19 Tharaka 65.19 57.85 WEST County 82.92 84.19 The vegetation greenness is in above normal condition across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 81.54 83.70 The situation showed slight improvement as compared to the previous month of June. Kapenguria 83.57 86.84 Pokot South 79.24 76.67 Sigor 87.09 87.32 EMBU County 75.52 74.14 The county and its sub counties are stable and in above normal vegetation Manyatta 77.99 82.53 greenness. Mbeere North 74.16 71.79 Mbeere South 74.59 70.78 Runyenjes 79.27 82.57 KITUI County 84.27 86.74 The county remained in above normal vegetation greenness condition, with Kitui Central 84.65 91.32 all its sub-counties remaining in stable vegetation condition when Kitui East 88.77 94.07 c ompared to the month of June. Mwingi Central 85.05 89.60 Mwingi North 71.03 70.38 Mwingi West 89.08 89.26 Kitui Rural 88.24 97.44 Kitui South 86.55 87.31 Kitui West 86.82 93.82 MAKUENI County 81.63 82.55 The county reported slight improvement in VCI value. There has been a Kaiti 86.36 85.78 significant stability with the county and all its sub-counties in above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kibwezi East 77.38 75.81 Kibwezi West 77.57 76.33 Kilome 78.77 78.17 Makueni 85.61 91.80 Mbooni 94.39 99.41 MERU County 73.15 74.33 The vegetation greenness is stable and above normal across the county and Buuri 70.56 75.06 its Sub-counties. Specific Preparedness activities by stakeholders key to the process. Central Imenti 70.25 74.19 Igembe Central 80.73 82.28 Igembe North 71.51 66.74 Igembe South 79.03 81.12 North Imenti 71.40 79.48 South Imenti 75.56 77.75 Tigania East 66.97 64.94 Tigania West 73.97 72.51 NYERI County 77.65 79.97 The county and its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Kieni 76.80 80.86 greenness condition and stable as compared to the previous month. Mathira 78.20 78.13 Mukurweini 89.79 87.41 Town 84.71 88.68 Othaya 73.85 73.78 Tetu 75.62 75.82 KILIFI County 71.87 66.01 Slight deterioration in vegetation condition across all the sub counties with Ganze 81.43 70.76 vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. All the sub- counties showed stability in the vegetation greenness level as compared to Kaloleni 74.52 69.31 the month of June. Magarini 68.80 63.30 Malindi 68.48 69.39 Kilifi-North 62.08 64.89 Rabai 78.25 72.05 Kilifi-South 70.04 65.69 KWALE County 72.11 60.47 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. The Kinango 74.06 59.41 county together with all its sub-counties showed a stability in the vegetation condition in the month of July compared with the month of Lungalunga 73.97 59.65 Matuga 65.2 66.97 Msambweni 57.46 60.23 LAMU County 80.47 72.59 Stability though deteriorating in vegetation condition in both county and Lamu East 78.43 76.93 sub counties although all remained at above normal vegetation greenness condition. Lamu West 81.65 70.08 TAITA County 83.85 80.57 The county and its sub counties are stable and in above normal vegetation TAVETA Mwatate 90.8 88.72 greenness condition. Taveta 83.68 82.09 Voi 80.48 75.42 Wundanyi 100.51 105.69 NAROK County 73.83 73.78 The entire county and its sub counties stable and in above normal Narok-East 77.20 74.85 vegetation greenness. Emurua Dikirr 59.95 62.24 Kilgoris 64.25 63.25 Narok-North 71.93 70.63 Narok-South 74.38 77.91 Narok-West 78.24 76.77 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 3. ALARM 5. RECOVERY Environmental and production indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms 2. ALERT 1. NORMAL indicators fluctuate indicators show no outside expected unusual fluctuations",
            "September_2020.pdf": "September 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sunny and dry weather conditions Prices of most cereals remained at average or below experienced during the month of August average due to an increase in stocks held by accelerated drying up of water sources households. In most ASAL counties the price of leading to increased distances to water maize remained stable or exhibited an improving sources for both livestock and domestic trend. use. As a result, the average distances to water sources for households and During the month under review, terms of trade livestock recorded an increase compared (ToT) in all counties were favourable, implying that to the month of July across the ASAL livestock keepers in almost all the 23 ASAL counties. counties were purchasing quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size The state of pasture and browse in most goat. The favourable ToT recorded in August 2020 of the arid and semi-arid counties is still were driven by the significantly above average goat in fair and good condition which has led prices. to improved livestock body condition and increased milk production. 22 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase with one county classified in the alert phase. However, the effects of the dry Consequently, in most pastoral areas, conditions experienced during the month of August current livestock productivity remains have started to be observed and therefore by end of above the 2015 - 2019 long term average. the month, 11 counties were reporting a worsening For instance, livestock prices in all ASAL trend while 12 counties recorded a stable trend. areas are above average or close to the long term average (LTA). Drought phase classification, August 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera , Isiolo, Wajir Marsabit, Embu Tana River, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, (Mbeere), Makueni, Nyeri (Kieni), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Kwale, Meru (Meru North), Kitui Pokot Page 1 1 Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall August was generally a dry month, particularly in counties like Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Tharaka, Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta and Kajiado. Sunny and dry weather conditions experienced in most ASAL areas led to faster reduction in water availability for both livestock and domestic use. However, during the month of August, few counties such as Baringo, West Pokot, Samburu and Turkana received enhanced rainfall which were above average compared to the seasonal average for a similar period. Figure 1 compares Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in August 2019 with August 2020. There was significant vegetation deficit in most ASAL counties in 2019, which is attributed to the poor performance of March-April-May 2019 long rains while the August 2020 VCI map shows enhanced vegetation condition across all counties as a result of the above average rains received during the March to May 2020 rainfall season. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Aug 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Aug 2020 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2019 and August 2020 Livestock production Generally, current livestock productivity remains above the 2015 - 2019 long term average that is attributed to the enhanced status of rangeland resources which has led to improved livestock body condition and an increase in milk production. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and good condition as shown in Table 1. The enhanced pasture and browse condition was attributed Page 2 to good vegetation rejuvenation owing to the above average rainfall performance during the Mach - May long rains season. However, pasture and browse condition was relatively below normal in Mandera and Meru counties which was associated with the prevalent dry conditions and overgrazing as a result of increase in herd sizes of both large and small stock. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2020 Pasture Browse Poor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Mandera Embu Baringo Embu Marsabit M eru Garissa Kilifi Kitui Samburu Kitui Isiolo Kwale Taita Taveta Kwale Laikipia Makueni West Pokot Makueni Lamu Mandera Kajiado Nyeri Narok Meru Garissa Tharaka Nithi Samburu Tana River Baringo Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Laikipia Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Turkana Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Narok Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition in many ASAL counties ranges from good to fair although the condition of livestock is expected to deteriorate in the next two months since pasture availability is likely to diminish while trekking distances to water sources might increase. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, August 2020 Cattle Goats P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Embu Garissa Kajiado Lamu Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Lamu Laikipia Baringo Taita Taveta Narok Nyeri Makueni Mandera West Pokot Embu Marsabit Kitui Tana River Meru Turkana Kwale Samburu Kilifi Samburu Kilifi Makueni Mandera Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Kitui Taita Taveta Narok Laikipia Baringo West Pokot Isiolo Turkana Kwale Tana River Meru Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Wajir Milk production During the month under review average milk production went up in seven counties, remained stable in eight while another eight counties recorded a downward trend. However, in 14 counties: - Tana River, Mandera, Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Meru (Meru North), Kitui, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Narok, Embu (Mbeere), and Laikipia current milk production was below the 2014 - 2019 long term average. The below normal milk production in Page 3 most of the pastoral counties was attributed to low calving rates. For instance, in Marsabit County, majority of the households sampled reported that they were obtaining milk mainly from goats and sheep since calving in camels and cattle was expected to take place from October. Table 3.0: Milk production, August 2020 Milk Wajir Kwale Tana River Samburu Embu Kajiado Samburu Production Isiolo Makueni Embu Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Baringo Kilifi Kitui Mandera Kitui West Pokot Garissa Lamu Marsabit Tharaka Lamu Tharaka Nithi Kwale Nyeri Turkana Meru Makueni Laikipia Mandera Taita Taveta Narok Baringo Marsabit Meru Nyeri West Pokot Garissa Laikipia Tana River Narok Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Cattle prices In nearly all ASAL counties, current market price for cattle are above the 2015 - 19 average price for the month of August. For instance, in Narok, Wajir, Tana River, West Pokot, Kajiado, Isiolo, Samburu and Marsabit the prevalent prices are above the average cattle prices for a similar period of the year by 49, 45, 43, 41, 30, 28, 27 and 19 percent respectively. The above normal cattle prices are attributed to good livestock body condition against the few number of cattle offered for sale as most of the households hold their stock with the aim of building their herd sizes which has led to a general rise in cattle prices. Table 4 shows the trends in cattle prices in August 2020. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, August 2020 Cattle Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Kwale, Mandera Turkana Marsabit Baringo Embu Mandera Prices Kilifi, Laikipia, Kitui, Lamu, Tharaka Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Narok Kilifi Kitui Samburu Marsabit, Narok, Meru (Meru Makueni Meru Kajiado North), Samburu, Taita Taveta, Turkana Wajir Nyeri Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Tana River Kwale Lamu (Tharaka), West Pokot, Embu Taita Taveta (Mbeere), Garissa, Isiolo, Nyeri West Pokot (Kieni), Makueni Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month of August goat prices in all ASAL areas were above average or close to LTA. The above normal goat prices was attributed to good forage availability leading to improved body condition and hence a rise in their market value. Page 4 Table 5.0: Goat prices, August 2020 Goat Wajir, Baringo Marsabit, Lamu Baringo Isiolo Garissa Embu Prices Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Narok Kajiado Kitui Mandera, Marsabit Meru Samburu Laikipia Lamu (Meru North), Makueni, Tana River Makueni Nyeri Narok, Samburu, Taita Kwale Turkana Wajir Taveta, Taita Taveta, Mandera Marsabit Meru Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Tharaka Nithi Turkana, West Pokot, Embu Taita Taveta (Mbeere), Garissa, Isiolo, West Pokot Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni) Kilifi Harvesting of long rains crops in marginal agricultural areas has been completed in most counties. Overall, maize production is projected to be average to above average except for parts of south- eastern cluster (Embu county, Machakos, Makueni) where production reduced by about 50 percent due to early cessation of rainfall. In Turkana and Samburu, the above average rainfall resulted in water logging leading to reduced production of maize, sorghum and beans by about 10 to 20 percent. The drought tolerant legumes such as pigeon peas, green grams and cow peas production was below average to average across the marginal agriculture clusters. The available maize stocks held by households are expected to last for the next 2 to 3 months. Maize prices During the month under analysis, prices of most cereals remained at average or below average due to an increase in stocks held by households. In most ASAL counties the price of maize remained stable or exhibited an improving trend. Table 6 demonstrates the trends in maize prices in August 2020. Table 6.0: Maize prices, August 2020 Maize Garissa Kwale Kajiado Embu Baringo Turkana Isiolo Tana River Prices Mandera Makueni Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Kitui Tana River Marsabit Kilifi Lamu Kilifi Samburu Nyeri Narok Kitui Nyeri Kwale Garissa Embu Samburu Laikipia Meru Lamu Laikipia Wajir Turkana Tharaka Nithi Meru Mandera Narok Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Taita Taveta West Pokot West Pokot Marsabit Access to water for households In several ASAL counties the average distances to water sources for households recorded an increase compared to the month of July. Some of the largest increase in distances to the main water points for households during the month were in the following counties: Turkana, Makueni, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Nyeri, Mandera, Meru and Tana River. The increase in the trekking distance to water sources is attributed to the fact that water levels have reduced in Page 5 some of the open water sources following the cessation of the long rains and loss of water due evaporation. In Narok, for example, average household distance to watering sources increased by 29 percent from 1.4 km in July to 1.8 km in August. In Tana River, current average return distance from household to the main water sources increased from 3.2 km in July to 4.1 km, rising by 28 percent while in Turkana distance to water sources from the household increased by 24 percent to 4.6 km from 3.7 km recorded in July. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2020 Distance from Garissa Embu Tana River Meru Kwale Wajir Turkana Makueni households to Lamu Wajir Baringo Isiolo Lamu Embu Baringo Narok main water Mandera Samburu Kilifi Kitui Tharaka Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi sources Kajiado Makueni Narok West Pokot Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Garissa Mandera Meru Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta West Pokot Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas increased in all counties except in Tharaka, West Pokot and Baringo. In addition, in 13 out of the 23 ASAL counties access to water for livestock was more challenging in August compared with normal times as animals had to walk slightly longer distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long-term average (LTA). The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance to water sources for livestock, August 2020 Distance from Samburu, Lamu, Kajiado Turkana West Pokot Embu Lamu, Isiolo, Kitui, livestock Isiolo, Embu, Laikipia Narok Baringo Meru Kajiado, Kilifi, grazing area Garissa, Baringo, Makueni Nyeri Tharaka Nyeri Laikipia, Makueni, to main water Kilifi, Kitui, Wajir Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Mandera, Marsabit, Mandera, Meru, West Pokot Tharaka Turkana Narok, Samburu, sources Marsabit, Kwale, Tana River, Wajir, Tana River Kwale, Garissa Increase in the average trekking distance to water sources for livestock is mainly attributed drying up of open water sources as a result of the dry weather conditions experienced in August 2020. Distances are expected to increase further in September. Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trend in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. During the month under review, terms of trade (ToT) in all counties were favourable, implying that livestock keepers in Page 6 almost all the 23 ASAL counties were purchasing quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. The favourable ToT recorded in August 2020 were driven by the significantly above average goat prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, August 2020 Terms of Taita Taveta Meru Wajir Lamu Taita Taveta Tana River trade West Pokot Lamu Meru Tharaka Nithi Embu (ToT) Tana River Embu Narok Laikipia Kwale Laikipia Kilifi Kilifi Turkana Mandera Kajiado Baringo Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Mandera Garissa Samburu Nyeri Makueni Isiolo Baringo Garissa Marsabit Kitui Turkana Narok Samburu Nyeri Makueni Isiolo West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Kwale Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. In 16 ASAL counties, the ratio of the under-fives rated as being at risk of malnutrition based the on mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement during the month of August 2020 was above the long term average. The declining nutrition status recorded in August in comparison to the 2015 - 2019 LTA was attributed to poor infant and young child feeding practices and reduced health seeking behaviour due to fear of COVID-19. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2020 Mid Taita Taveta Wajir Kajiado Baringo Samburu Baringo Embu Kilifi Upper Arm Makueni Meru Embu Kitui Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Kitui Circumference Turkana Lamu Marsabit Mandera Lamu Kajiado Kwale Makueni Garissa Kwale Tharaka Nyeri Mandera Meru Isiolo Kilifi Tana River Marsabit Narok Laikipia Narok Wajir Turkana Samburu Nyeri West Pokot Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Tana River 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the status and trend in drought phase classification in the 23 ASAL counties. 22 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase with one county classified in the alert phase. As at the end of August, 11 counties were reporting a worsening trend while 12 counties recorded a stable trend. Page 7 Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, August 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera , Isiolo, Wajir Marsabit, Tana River, Narok, Samburu, Taita Embu (Mbeere), Makueni, Nyeri Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), (Kieni), Kwale, Meru (Meru Turkana, West Pokot North), Kitui Page 8 2 Projected food security situation September is normally a dry month over most parts of the country. The forecast for September 2020 indicates that nearly all arid and semi-arid counties are expected to be sunny and dry for much of the month. There is also an increased likelihood for warmer than usual temperatures in September which could result in high evapotranspiration rates hence a faster than normal drying up of pasture and open water sources. The possibility of rangeland conditions starting to deteriorate will most likely have a negative impact on livestock production due to the declining body condition hence purchasing power for pastoral households is anticipated to decline slightly in September. Consequently, the probability of poor households mainly in the pastoral areas remaining constrained in accessing food through the market will equally be high as a result of the expected decline in the livestock to cereals price ratio. It is highly probable that an upward shift in the rate of malnutrition will be witnessed during the month of September. 3 Recommendations Rehabilitation and maintenance of strategic water facilities. Awareness on boiling and treatment of drinking water as most households in ASAL areas are accessing water from unprotected sources. Support integrated medical outreaches to facilitate screening of pregnant and lactating women (PLW) and children under the age of 5 years. Enhance campaigns on COVID-19 containment measures such as good hygiene practices, hand washing, social distancing and wearing of masks. Sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Livestock disease surveillance and enhanced animal health services. Close monitoring of livestock movement in search of pasture and water and support community peace dialogue and resource use agreements in conflict prone areas. Page 9 Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st August 2020 BARINGO County 93.94 98.09 Following the above average rains received during the March-April-May Central 91.29 88.95 (MAM) long rains season and the off season rainfall experienced in June to August 2020, the condition of vegetation in all sub-counties is above Eldama 77.92 85.56 normal. Mogotio 93.78 97.22 North 93.44 94.19 South 85.5 88.83 Tiaty 101.21 98.09 MANDERA County 92.45 95.49 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Banissa 84.13 85.70 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. M. East 78.75 88.26 Lafey 97.08 103.1 M. North 94.73 96.99 M. South 93.21 96.12 M. West 94.13 95.56 TURKANA County 82.8 91.05 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T. Central 94.79 105.12 T. East 85.65 86.63 T. Loima 98.65 99.48 T. North 65.03 78.99 T. South 96.97 98.83 T. West 81.57 95.23 MARSABIT County 64.24 68.87 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Laisaimis 70.29 73.62 Moyale 61.54 62.73 N. Horr 60.78 67.08 Saku 77.81 81.41 WAJIR County 61.41 62.80 At county level the vegetation greenness is in the above normal range W. East 73.09 69.12 although Wajir South sub county recorded normal vegetation greenness. W. Eldas 57.81 62.74 W. North 87.19 83.88 W. South 48.66 47.84 W. Tarbaj 79.32 81.72 W. West 42.50 54.35 Page 10 SAMBURU County 79.43 82.46 The state of vegetation in all sub counties is above the normal range for the S. East 71.73 81.76 period. S. North 86.23 82.33 S. West 87.35 86.15 GARISSA County 68.08 64.81 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 85.89 93.45 Daadab 63.99 66.62 Fafi 69.77 60.41 Ijara 64.46 51.68 Lagdera 60.33 69.15 Dujis 67.39 72.18 ISIOLO County 50.63 65.47 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation I. North 49.88 65 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. South 51.77 66.18 TANA County 75.43 78.77 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 86.16 95.63 Galole 71.36 71.8 Garsen 68.87 68.82 KAJIADO County 79.43 91.1 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 71.14 77.98 K. East 69.13 80.29 K. North 62.49 66.55 K. South 75.26 87.85 K. West 92.32 106.36 LAIKIPIA County 87.75 90.85 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation L. East 84.02 83.79 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. L. North 90.12 93.52 L. West 85.09 89.25 THARAKA County 65.9 68.49 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chulga 78.52 78.63 Maara 76.19 78.38 Tharaka 57.85 61.51 WEST County 84.19 85.81 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 83.7 86.63 Kapenguria 86.84 88.74 Pokot South 76.67 69.77 Sigor 87.32 88.66 Page 11 EMBU County 74.14 74.08 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 82.53 78.17 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 71.79 74.25 Mbeere South 70.78 72.27 Runyenjes 82.57 75.81 KITUI County 86.74 97.13 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 91.32 106.41 Kitui East 94.07 108.47 Mwingi Central 89.6 99.41 Mwingi North 70.38 76.84 Mwingi West 89.26 95.13 Kitui Rural 97.44 112.85 Kitui South 87.31 97.09 Kitui West 93.82 109.24 MAKUENI County 82.55 96.09 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 85.78 96.51 Kibwezi East 75.81 88.92 Kibwezi West 76.33 89.93 Kilome 78.17 87.28 Makueni 91.8 105.17 Mbooni 99.41 118.95 MERU County 74.33 80.57 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 75.06 81.81 Central Imenti 74.19 80.63 Igembe Central 82.28 88 Igembe North 66.74 72.74 Igembe South 81.12 81.64 North Imenti 79.48 89.34 South Imenti 77.75 81.25 Tigania East 64.94 75.57 Tigania West 86.74 97.13 Page 12 NYERI County 79.97 82.84 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 80.86 85.85 Mathira 78.13 82.22 Mukurweini 87.41 78.82 Town 88.68 86.89 Othaya 73.78 74.16 Tetu 75.82 76.65 KILIFI County 66.01 58.72 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Ganze 70.76 58.75 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kaloleni 69.31 56.01 Magarini 63.3 58.72 Malindi 69.39 63.43 Kilifi-North 64.89 58.52 Rabai 72.05 59.89 Kilifi-South 65.69 56.2 KWALE County 60.47 46.51 The county is in the normal vegetation greenness band. Kinango and Kinango 59.41 46.1 Lungalunga showed a deterioration in the vegetation condition recording a normal vegetation greenness in the month of August compared with the Lungalunga 59.65 40.52 situation in July during which the 2 sub counties recorded above normal Matuga 66.97 56.27 vegetation greenness. Msambweni 60.23 55.27 LAMU County 72.59 59.38 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 76.93 65.63 Lamu West 70.08 55.77 TAITA County 80.57 85.96 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. TAVETA Mwatate 88.72 87.68 Taveta 82.09 87.68 Voi 75.42 82.61 Wundanyi 105.69 110.8 NAROK County 73.78 79.18 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Narok-East 74.85 81.22 Emurua Dikirr 62.24 68.32 Kilgoris 63.25 67.52 Narok-North 70.63 77.16 Narok-South 77.91 84.28 Narok-West 76.77 80.83 Page 13 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Page 14 Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 3. ALARM 5. RECOVERY Environmental and production indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms 2. ALERT 1. NORMAL indicators fluctuate indicators show no outside expected unusual fluctuations Page 15",
            "October_2020.pdf": "October 2020 1 P age KEY HIGHLIGHTS Most parts of the country experienced Access to water for livestock was better in generally sunny and dry conditions September compared with normal times as animals throughout the month of September. had to walk shorter distances compared with the However, The historically above-average usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long March-April-May (MAM) 2020 rainfall term average (LTA). This was attributed to the has continued to impact positively on average to above-average performance of the March water availability, forage, and crop to May rains which supported significant recharge production across the ASAL region. of water sources as well as triggering substantial pasture and browse regeneration in most ASAL During the month under review, livestock counties. body condition for all species was generally good and as a result, in most Currently, environmental indicators in 19 counties ASAL areas cattle prices are above the are within the expected ranges for the time of the three-year average price for the month of year and hence are classified in the normal drought September. stage while four counties including Mandera, Garissa, Marsabit and Wajir are classified in the In September 2020, the Terms of Trade alert phase. In most counties, the trend is worsening, (ToT) were favourable in nearly all the as would be expected towards the end of the dry ASAL counties with the current ToT in season. over 90 percent of the counties remaining above the LTA. The favourable terms of trade across the counties was credited to above normal goat prices along with the prevailing below-average maize prices. Drought phase classification, September 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Emergency Recovery 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall Most ASAL counties like Mandera, Marsabit, and Wajir experienced generally sunny and dry conditions throughout the month of September 2020 which is normal at this time of the year. At the same time, several areas in Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot, Kilifi, and Kwale received significant rainfall amounts during the month. The drought early warning system managed by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) assesses the severity of drought and its impact through the use of a combination of biophysical data, remote-sensed vegetation condition records, and social-economic data to determine the drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) communicates the state of vegetation cover, comparing it with the range of values observed in the same period in previous years. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values as of 28th September 2020 are summarized in Table 1. Most ASAL areas received above-average rainfall during the 2020 March to May long rains season and as a result, vegetation greenness in the ASAL region is currently in the above normal ranges for the period. However, in Kwale County, the county VCI in September deteriorated slightly dropping to the normal vegetation greenness band with one sub-county Lunga Lunga recording moderate vegetation deficit. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI 3 month) Summary Status as of 28th September 2020 Above Normal Normal Moderate Severe Mandera Tana River Garissa Kwale Turkana Samburu Isiolo Kitui West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Embu Laikipia Lamu Meru Marsabit Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Baringo Taita Taveta Kwale Kilifi Tharaka (22) (1) (0) (0) Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late September 2019 with that in late September 2020. When compared to similar period last year and the long term average, the current condition of vegetation is remarkably above September 2019 and long term average VCI values. The vegetation greenness index in most counties for the last nine consecutive months has been above normal ranges which is attributed to the impact of the above average cumulative rains received during the October - November - December (OND) 2019 and March-April-May (MAM) 2020 rainfall seasons. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2019 and September 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2020 Livestock production Availability of good pasture and browse continued to positively impact on livestock productivity. In September, livestock body condition for most species was good with slight variations across the counties. In all areas, animals recorded better body condition currently compared to the similar period in previous years which was attributed to the positive impact of the long rains season on forage regeneration. Pasture and browse condition As a result of the above normal March to May rainfall, the state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and good condition as shown in Table 2. However, Mandera, Meru and Tana River reported a deterioration pasture quantity and quality. For instance, in Mandera County 57 percent of the 210 households interviewed reported that pasture and browse condition was poor while 43 percent reported pasture and browse condition as fair. The deterioration in pasture situation was attributed to reduced regeneration owing to the prevailing dry condition and heavy grazing pressure due to the large increase in livestock numbers. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2020 Pasture Browse Poor Fair Good Poor Fair Good Mandera Embu, Garissa Baringo, Kilifi Mandera Embu, Garissa, Nyeri Baringo, Kilifi Meru Kitui, Kwale Marsabit, Isiolo Meru Isiolo, Kajiado, Wajir Lamu, Narok Tana River Makueni, Nyeri Kajiado, Lamu Turkana, Kitui, Kwale Samburu Tharaka Nithi Narok, Samburu Makueni, Marsabit, Taita Taveta Turkana, Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Livestock body condition In September livestock body condition for all species was generally good except in few counties like Tana River, Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Nyeri, and Lamu where fair livestock body condition was observed as illustrated in Table 2. The slight decline in livestock body condition was attributed to the gradual degeneration of forage as the typical dry spell ensued. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2020 Cattle Goats P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Embu Kilifi Wajir Tana River Taita Taveta Narok Lamu Kajiado Kwale Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Garissa Laikipia Baringo Marsabit Makueni Embu Nyeri Makueni Mandera Garissa Mandera Kitui Tana River Marsabit Kitui Nyeri Samburu Meru T urkana Samburu Meru Lamu Kajiado Kwale Taita Taveta Narok Laikipia Baringo West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Wajir Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. Milk production reduced considerably across counties during the month under review. For example, in Marsabit County, average milk production per household per day dropped by a margin of 43 percent to 0.8 litres in September from 1.4 litres in August while household milk production per day in Wajir reduced by 29 percent from 2.1 litres in August to 1.5 litres in September. Similarly, in Kajiado County, average milk production per household per day decreased by 25 percent from 4 litres in August to 3 litres in September. The observed drop in milk production was attributed to dry conditions and the associated general decline in availability of water, pasture and browse in most ASAL counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2020 Milk Isiolo Mandera Tana River Samburu Narok Embu Samburu, Nyeri Production Meru Embu Kajiado Baringo Wajir, Kilifi Narok Kitui Marsabit Garissa Kitui, Kajiado Turkana Baringo Isiolo Lamu, Makueni Garissa Laikipia Kwale Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Kwale Mandera Taita Taveta Makueni Wajir Meru Marsabit Kilifi Lamu Tana River Turkana West Pokot Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia Taita Taveta Cattle prices In majority of the ASAL counties, cattle prices are above the three-year average price for the month of September as shown Table 5. For example, in Wajir, Kajiado, Makueni, Garissa, Kilifi, and Marsabit the prevalent prices are above the average cattle prices for a similar period of the year by 49, 48, 47, 25, 23, and 21 percent respectively. The above normal cattle prices was attributed to the improved cattle body condition. However, in Turkana County, the price of cattle was lower than the long term average price for the same month by nine percent which could be attributed to the deteriorating cattle body condition occasioned by declining pasture availability. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2020 Cattle Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Kitui Turkana Makueni Baringo, West Pokot, Lamu Prices Makueni, Garissa, Isiolo, Lamu Mandera Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Meru Kajiado, Kilifi, Wajir, Narok, Meru Samburu Kilifi, Tana River, Narok Nyeri (Kieni), Taita Taveta, Kitui, Marsabit, Nyeri Tharaka Tana River, Laikipia, Mandera, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Wajir Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi, West Turkana, Laikipia, Pokot, Samburu Kwale Goat prices Table 6 exhibits the trends in goat prices in September 2020 in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month under review, nearly all ASAL counties reported above normal or close to LTA prices for goats that was occasioned by the prevalent good body condition for goats. Table 6.0: Goat prices, September 2020 Goat Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Makueni Lamu Baringo Isiolo, Wajir, Kajiado, Garissa Prices Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Marsabit Kitui Laikipia, Embu, Lamu, Kwale Laikipia, Narok, Samburu, Taita Tana River Makueni, Nyeri, Taita Meru, Narok Isiolo, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri, Turkana Taveta, West Pokot, Tharaka Mandera, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir Marsabit, Samburu Turkana Tana River, West Pokot Kilifi Mandera For example, in Kajiado County, the average price of Kshs 5,390 recorded in September for a 2- year old medium size goat was 59 percent higher than the three-year average of Kshs 3,390. In Samburu, the average price for a medium size goat of Kshs 3,420 was above the 2015-2019 average by 26 percent while in Baringo the average price of a goat stood at Kshs 3,406 which was above the LTA by 11 percent. Similarly, in West Pokot, the county reported an average price of Kshs 4,525 for a 2-year old goat which was 12 percent above the long term average price for September. Land preparation is ongoing in nearly all the marginal agricultural counties as households prepare for the start of the October to December short rains. Currently there were no crops on the farms apart from crops grown under irrigation such as kales, cabbages and tomatoes. Maize prices In about 65 percent of the ASAL counties the price of maize remained stable in September. In addition, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 20 counties recording prices that are close to or below LTA. For example, in Meru (Meru North), Lamu, West Pokot, Kilifi, Baringo and Narok current prices are below LTA by 21, 19, 18, 14, 11 and 9 percent respectively. The decrease in maize prices was attributed to harvesting and hence availability of maize at household level and increase in maize supply in most markets. Table 7 shows the trends in maize prices in September 2020. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2020 Maize Garissa Embu Isiolo, Kilifi Tana River Garissa, Isiolo, Meru Prices Kwale Kajiado Kitui, Lamu West Pokot Kitui, Laikipia Embu Mandera Makueni Taita Taveta Kilifi Makueni, Nyeri Kajiado Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Narok Mandera, Wajir Kwale Samburu Baringo, Baringo, Lamu, Tana River Meru Tharaka Nithi, Turkana Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Turkana, Laikipia Marsabit, Samburu, Access to water for households The trends in distances walked by households to access water is illustrated in Table 8. Generally, the domestic water situation in most counties declined slightly but largely remained better when compared with similar periods. In 12 ASAL counties, the average distances to water sources for households recorded an increase compared to the month of August. Some of the largest increase in distances to the main water points for households during the month were in the following counties: Tana River, Wajir, Turkana, Marsabit, Kwale, Mandera, Kilifi, Lamu and Nyeri. In Kwale, for instance, average household distance to watering sources increased by 46 percent from 2.4 km in August to 3.5 km in September. In Tana River, current average return distance from household to the main water sources increased to 5.2 km from 4.1 km in August, rising by 28 percent. Likewise, in Turkana County, distance to water sources from the household increased by 22 percent to 5.6 km from 4.6 km recorded in August, while in Mandera return distances to the main water points for households increased by 21 percent from 9.8 km in August to 11.9 km in September. The increase in the trekking distance to water sources was as result of drying up of some open water sources such as traditional wells, ponds, shallow wells, water pans and dams. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2020 Distance from Garissa Kajiado Kajiado, Kilifi, Wajir Kajiado Taita Taveta Wajir, Nyeri, Meru households to Kwale Makueni Kitui, Isiolo, Embu West Pokot Kitui, Embu Makueni, Narok main water Lamu Laikipia Baringo, Meru, Narok Samburu Turkana, Lamu sources Marsabit Mandera, Samburu Laikipia Marsabit, Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Mandera, Kilifi Taita Taveta Baringo Tana River West Pokot Garissa Tana River Isiolo Access to water for livestock Table 9 displays the current status and trends in the distance walked by livestock in search of water. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas increased or remained stable in all counties except in Tharaka and Embu. The worsening trend was attributed to the drying up of open water sources occasioned by the dry conditions experienced during the month under review. However, in 15 counties, access to water for livestock was better in September compared with normal times as animals had to walk shorter distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long term average (LTA). This was attributed to the average to above average performance of the March to May rains which supported significant recharge of water sources as well as triggering substantial pasture and browse regeneration in most ASAL counties. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2020 Distance from Kilifi Laikipia Baringo, Narok, Isiolo Embu Taita Taveta Kwale, Wajir, Lamu livestock Lamu Makueni Taita Taveta, Kajiado Tharaka West Pokot Kilifi, Kitui, Narok grazing area to Marsabit Kwale Embu, Wajir, Kitui Laikipia Mandera, Samburu main water Meru Marsabit, Samburu Kajiado Marsabit, Makueni Nyeri Garissa, Mandera Meru Baringo, Garissa sources Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Isiolo, Kajiado Tana River Terms of trade Terms of trade (ToT) is an indirect means of measuring purchasing power for households who mainly depend on markets for food. Therefore, each month, the drought early warning system monitors the relative price of goats and maize, showing the number of kilogrammes of maize that can be exchanged for one goat. In September 2020, the terms of trade were favourable in nearly all the ASAL counties with the current ToT in 22 counties remaining above the LTA as shown in Table 10. The favourable terms of trade across the counties is credited to above normal goat prices along with the prevailing below average maize prices. Among the arid counties, the highest terms of trade was recorded in Marsabit County where households could purchase 88 kg of maize from the sale of one average-sized goat compared to the LTA for September of 68 kg. Garissa County recorded the lowest terms of trade at 50 kg which was still above the LTA of 30 kg. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, September 2020 Terms of Tana River Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi trade West Pokot Lamu Tana River Mandera Samburu (ToT) Makueni Wajir Baringo Marsabit Makueni Samburu Nyeri Kwale Laikipia Turkana Turkana Meru Kilifi Kitui Kajiado Kajiado Embu Nyeri Garissa Mandera Kitui Wajir Isiolo Marsabit Kilifi Lamu Embu Tharaka Isiolo Narok Meru Baringo Narok Laikipia Garissa Health and nutrition In several arid counties, the proportion of children who are moderately and severely malnourished increased slightly in September when compared to the previous month which could partially be attributed to reducing milk consumption as well as poor dietary intake. For instance, In Isiolo County, 4.2 and 7.0 percent of children were severely malnourished and moderately malnourished respectively. Similarly in Turkana County, 2.2 percent of children had moderate malnutrition while 0.6 percent were severely malnourished. On the other hand in Baringo County, as a result of the availability of milk at the household level and enhanced household income from higher livestock prices, the nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age remained stable of which 86.7 percent of the sampled children were properly nourished while 9.2 and 1.1 percent had moderate and severe malnutrition respectively. 1.2 Drought phase classification The Kenyan drought management system uses five drought early warning phases categorized as normal, alert, alarm, emergency and recovery. Currently, environmental indicators in 19 counties lie within the expected ranges for the time of the year and hence are classified in the normal drought stage. On the other hand, four counties including Mandera, Garissa, Marsabit and Wajir are classified in the alert phase. In most counties, the trend is worsening, as would be expected towards the end of the dry season. Basically, as at the end of September, 12 counties were reporting a worsening trend while 11 counties recorded a stable trend. Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, September 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening 2.0 Projected food security situation According to the forecast for the October-November-December (OND) 2020 short rains season, it is projected that several parts of Kenya will experience depressed rainfall that will be poorly distributed both in time and space. The below-average rainfall is expected to support modest recharge of water sources and short-lived pasture regeneration which is likely to result in a gradual deterioration in livestock productivity across ASAL counties. It is also anticipated that in most pastoral areas livestock migration is likely to start earlier than usual hence reducing household milk access and increasing chances of resource-based conflicts and spread of livestock diseases. In the marginal agricultural areas, the below normal rainfall is expected to lead to poor crop performance. Furthermore, the expected decrease in cropping activities and demand for agricultural wage labour will likely result in below-average household income from casual labour and crop sales. 3.0 Recommendations Up scaling provision of food assistance and cash transfers to vulnerable households. Livestock disease surveillance across counties. Promote hay harvesting and conservation. Improvement of marketing infrastructure including provision of hand washing facilities in line with MoH protocols on COVID-19 prevention in order to enhance smooth market operations. Provision of drought tolerant seeds and other farm inputs and tools to farmers and agro pastoralists. Repair of broken down water facilities such as strategic boreholes at the same time installing water harvesting structures in strategic institutions. Provision of water treatment chemicals for communities using open surface water sources. Sensitization of good hygiene including hand washing, social distancing and conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 prevention. Continous engagement and capacity building for mothers and caregivers on use of Family MUAC in order to improve the quality of nutrition data. Scale up mass screening and integrated medical outreaches targeting malnutrition hotspots in all ASAL counties. Conduct inter-county and cross border peace dialogue and conflict resolution meetings to facilitate harmony and resource sharing. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th September 2020 BARINGO County 98.09 96.55 Off season rains received during the June to September period have Central 88.95 88.01 improved the vegetation greenness substantially hence vegetation greenness has remained above normal in all parts of the county. Eldama 85.56 83.39 Mogotio 97.22 97.02 North 94.19 92.66 South 88.83 89.98 Tiaty 98.09 104.49 MANDERA County 95.49 94.20 All sub counties maintained above normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 85.70 85.29 M. East 88.26 86.00 Lafey 103.1 100.58 M. North 96.99 99.51 M. South 96.12 93.86 M. West 95.56 91.23 TURKANA County 91.05 91.13 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation T. Central 105.12 101.28 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. T. East 86.63 80.71 T. Loima 99.48 105.14 T. North 78.99 77.06 T. South 98.83 100.63 T. West 95.23 99.54 MARSABIT County 68.87 69.01 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 73.62 71.29 Moyale 62.73 68.32 N. Horr 67.08 67.13 Saku 81.41 83.03 WAJIR County 62.8 62.51 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal with slight W. East 69.12 70.57 deterioration in Wajir South. W. Eldas 62.74 60.66 W. North 83.88 78.79 W. South 47.84 49.63 W. Tarbaj 81.72 78.72 W. West 54.35 58.98 SAMBURU County 82.46 79.66 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness. S. East 81.76 81.86 S. North 82.33 75.37 S. West 86.15 85.63 GARISSA County 64.81 63.08 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 93.45 89.90 Daadab 66.62 63.43 Fafi 60.41 56.76 Ijara 51.68 53.62 Lagdera 69.15 70.65 Dujis 72.18 69.00 ISIOLO County 65.47 76.59 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation I. North 65.00 76.31 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. South 66.18 77.02 TANA County 78.77 76.93 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 95.63 90.63 Galole 71.80 72.08 Garsen 68.82 68.34 KAJIADO County 91.10 95.59 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 77.98 80.70 K. East 80.29 86.21 K. North 66.55 59.8 K. South 87.85 96.10 K. West 106.36 108.43 LAIKIPIA County 90.85 87.86 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation L. East 83.79 78.22 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. L. North 93.52 89.84 L. West 89.25 88.81 THARAKA County 68.49 66.17 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chulga 78.63 71.45 Maara 78.38 70.50 Tharaka 61.51 62.80 WEST County 85.81 87.86 As a result of the cumulative effect of the off season rainfall received during POKOT Kacheliba 86.63 91.28 the period from June to September, the vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Kapenguria 88.74 90.14 Pokot South 69.77 73.01 Sigor 88.66 88.50 EMBU County 74.08 66.22 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 78.17 72.48 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 74.25 70.51 Mbeere South 72.27 60.69 Runyenjes 75.81 66.22 KITUI County 97.13 96.50 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 106.41 111.79 Kitui East 108.47 106.97 Mwingi Central 99.41 97.86 Mwingi North 76.84 78.64 Mwingi West 95.13 97.66 Kitui Rural 112.85 117.13 Kitui South 97.09 94.86 Kitui West 109.24 112.84 MAKUENI County 96.09 99.91 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 96.51 93.19 Kibwezi East 88.92 94.48 Kibwezi West 89.93 95.73 Kilome 87.28 88.10 Makueni 105.17 107.87 Mbooni 118.95 121.71 MERU County 80.57 82.38 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 81.81 84.90 Central Imenti 80.63 73.28 Igembe Central 88 95.13 Igembe North 72.74 78.09 Igembe South 81.64 82.40 North Imenti 89.34 84.15 South Imenti 81.25 75.60 Tigania East 75.57 79.35 Tigania West 82.86 85.32 NYERI County 82.84 78.66 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 85.85 83.28 Mathira 82.22 75.18 Mukurweini 78.82 69.15 Town 86.89 82.52 Othaya 74.16 65.68 Tetu 76.65 74.78 KILIFI County 58.72 53.25 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band with slight Ganze 58.75 51.63 deterioration (normal vegetation greenness) observed in 3 sub counties: Kaloleni, Rabai and Kilifi South. Kaloleni 56.01 46.06 Magarini 58.72 54.67 Malindi 63.43 60.01 Kilifi-North 58.52 55.29 Rabai 59.89 45.52 Kilifi-South 56.2 43.68 KWALE County 46.51 37.88 The county VCI in September is within normal ranges. However, Lunga Kinango 46.1 38.32 Lunga sub county is currently experiencing a moderate vegetation deficit. Lungalunga 40.52 29.27 Matuga 56.27 47.78 Msambweni 55.27 48.73 LAMU County 59.38 61.34 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 65.63 65.48 Lamu West 55.77 58.94 TAITA County 85.96 86.49 The vegetation greenness is above normal across all the sub counties. TAVETA Mwatate 87.68 88.73 Taveta 87.68 92.49 Voi 82.61 81.54 Wundanyi 110.8 107.37 NAROK County 79.18 80.52 Vegetation greenness above normal. Narok-East 81.22 81.24 Emurua Dikirr 68.32 77.31 Kilgoris 67.52 71.00 Narok-North 77.16 74.27 Narok-South 84.28 84.57 Narok-West 80.83 84.32 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside"
        },
        "DEWS_2021": {
            "February_2021.pdf": "February 2021 1 Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall The month of January marked the onset of the dry season. As a result, most ASAL counties experienced sunny, hot and dry weather conditions for most of January 2021 which is usual for this time of the year. Figure 1 shows the total amount of rainfall recorded in January 2021. Overall, rainfall performance in most parts of the country was depressed with most ASAL counties recording rainfall amounts that were below 50 mm. During the month, higher than average daytime temperatures were recorded over the entire ASAL region. The higher than average daytime temperatures led to raised rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration which caused faster reduction in water levels in the open water reservoirs and from the soil surface hence resulting in rapid drying up of dams, water pans, and moisture stresswilting in pasture and crops. Figure 1: Rainfall Performance: January 2021 Rainfall Totals Figure 2 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in January 2020 with that in January 2021. The maps show that in most ASAL counties, the current condition of vegetation is worse when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average which is attributed to the below average rains received during the October to December 2020 rainfall season. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2020 and January 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) January 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) January 2021 As of 25th January 2021, four ASAL counties namely; Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo and Wajir were classified in the moderate vegetation deficit class; a total of 15 ASAL counties (Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and West Pokot) had above normal vegetation condition, while 4 counties (Garissa, Samburu, Tana River and Kilifi) were in the normal vegetation greenness category. Currently 2 sub counties Eldas and Wajir West in Wajir County are experiencing severe vegetation deficit while 15 sub counties spread in 6 counties are in the moderate vegetation deficit band. These includes: i) Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South and Mandera West); ii) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Wajir South and Tarbaj); iii) Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr); iv) Garissa (Balambala, Dujis); v) Isiolo (Isiolo North); and vi) Tana River (Bura) are in the moderate vegetation deficit band. Indicating that in these areas, the rainfall received during the OND season did not increase the vegetation greenness to the expected normal ranges for the period. Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently lower compared to last month due to reduction in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in trekking distances in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and good condition as shown in Table 1. However, most counties reported that the quantity and quality of pasture and browse was declining. The deteriorating trend was mainly as a result of the below average performance of the October to December rainfall. On the other hand, other factors also limited pasture and browse access. For instance, in Isiolo County, insecurity along Isiolo - Garissa, Isiolo - Wajir and Isiolo - Laikipia border hindered access to pasture and browse. In addition, other factors limiting pasture access include; increase in invasive plant species, inadequate water in the wet grazing areas, outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Kinna and Sericho Wards and ticks and tsetse fly infestation in Garbatulla and Kinna Ward. Similarly, in Mandera County, pasture access was constrained by insecurity and poor water availability especially in Mandera West, Banisa. Lafey and Kutulo sub-counties. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2021 Pasture Browse Isiolo Baringo Embu Isiolo Baringo Embu Lamu Kajiado Kwale Lamu Garissa Kwale Mandera Garissa Makueni Mandera Kajiado Makueni Wajir Kitui Taita Taveta Kitui Marsabit Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Narok Marsabit Meru North Taita Taveta Meru North Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Narok Samburu Nyeri Tana River Samburu West Pokot Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for all livestock species was good to fair across all the ASAL counties as illustrated in Table 2. However, in Turkana County, livestock body condition was generally fair and on a deteriorating trend in the Fisheries Livelihood Zone (Kalimapus and Nachukui) and the Pastoral Zone (Kalapata, Lokichar and some parts of Kanamkemer Ward). Likewise, fair to poor livestock body condition was observed in the Pastoral Livelihood Zones of Mandera and Tana River counties and in some pockets of North Horr and Laisamis Sub County of Marsabit County. The poor livestock body condition was attributed to rapid depletion of forage due to below average 2020 Short rains and long trekking distance in search of water and forage. It is anticipated that the livestock body condition for all livestock categories would deteriorate further as the rangeland conditions worsen due to the projected above normal surface temperature between February and early April when the long rains are expected. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, January 2021 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Baringo Embu Kitui Garissa Kitui Garissa Lamu Isiolo Lamu Isiolo Mandera Kajiado Mandera Kajiado Narok Kwale Narok Kwale Nyeri Laikipia Nyeri Laikipia Tana River Makueni Tana River Makueni Wajir Marsabit Wajir Marsabit West Pokot Meru North West Pokot Meru North Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Milk production Most ASAL counties registered a reduction in milk production during the month under review (Table 3). For example, in Marsabit County, average milk production per household per day decreased by 43 percent to 1.3 litres in January from 2.3 litres in December while household milk production per day in Samburu dropped by 15 percent from 2 litres in December to 1.7 litres in January. In Wajir, average milk production per household per day decreased by 10 percent from 2 litres in December to 1.8 litres in January. At the same time, average milk production per household per day was below LTA in Kwale, Turkana, Marsabit, Kajiado and Wajir by 37, 36, 28, 26 and 23 percent respectively. The decrease in milk production was attributed to below normal performance of the OND rains which resulted to poor regeneration of forage and low recharge of water sources, increase in trekking distances covered by livestock in search of water and pasture and declining livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Milk production, January 2021 Milk Garissa Isiolo Baringo Isiolo Kwale Baringo Production Kitui Laikipia Kwale Kajiado Laikipia Kilifi Lamu Nyeri Turkana Kitui Mandera Marsabit Samburu Kajiado Makueni Tana River Meru Makueni Kilifi Narok Wajir Embu Mandera Taita Taveta Garissa Narok Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Lamu Taita Taveta Meru T urkana Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Embu West Pokot Wajir West Pokot Cattle prices In about 80 percent of the ASAL counties, cattle prices are higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of January as shown in Table 4. For instance, in Kajiado, Isiolo, Wajir, Tana River, Baringo and Marsabit the current prices are above LTA by 53, 46, 45, 34, 20 and 17 percent respectively. The favourable cattle prices was attributed to the generally good body condition of cattle in most counties. However, in Turkana County, the average price of a medium sized bull decreased by 7 percent from Kshs 15,170 in December to Kshs 14,095 in January and was lower than the three-year average price of cattle for January by 17 percent. The decline in cattle prices in Turkana was mainly attributed to the deteriorating body condition of cattle occasioned by elongated trekking distances in search of pasture. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, January 2021 Cattle Baringo, Makueni Embu T urkana Garissa Baringo Isiolo Prices Isiolo, Lamu, Kajiado Garissa Mandera Kajiado West Pokot Kilifi, Wajir, Kitui Mandera Meru Kilifi Embu Narok, Tana River N yeri Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Marsabit Marsabit, Tharaka Makueni Lamu Kitui Nithi, West Pokot Turkana Narok Samburu, Meru, Samburu Laikipia, Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Wajir Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of Janury goat prices in nearly all ASAL areas were above average or close to LTA except in Turkana and Kwale counties. The below normal goat prices in the two counties was ascribed to worsening body condition driven by poor availability of pasture and browse. Table 5.0: Goat prices, January 2021 Goat Garissa Kajiado Baringo Turkana Meru Kajiado Baringo Prices Lamu Samburu Makueni K wale Tana river Lamu Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Taita Taveta Makueni Laikipia Embu Nyeri Kilifi Marsabit N arok Kilifi Narok Wajir Embu Nyeri Isiolo Kitui Samburu Wajir Meru Garissa West Pokot Taita Taveta Mandera Kwale Tana River Turkana West Pokot Kitui Mandera Laikipia The average acreage under maize in the marginal agricultural counties such as Makueni, Kilifi, Narok, Meru (Meru North), Taita Taveta, Nyeri (Kieni), Kitui, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere) and Tharaka was 15 - 20 percent below average due to the forecasted below average 2020 October- November-December (OND) rainfall season and limited access to inputs such as certified seed and fertilizer. Harvesting of pulses like green grams, beans and cowpeas was ongoing while most of the cereal crops such as millet, sorghum and maize were at the grain filling and the drying stage of development with harvesting expected to start from mid-February. In the Marginal Mixed Farming Zone in Makueni County, maize had wilted in most pockets in Makindu and Nguu ward in Kibwezi West, Masongaleni in Kibwezi East and in Kilome Sub Counties. The poor state of the maize crop was as a result of the delayed onset of the OND rains and the long dry spells experienced in December. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in January (Table 6). Stabilization in price across counties was as a result of the continued flow of maize from markets in the country coupled with the cross-border imports from Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda. Overall, the current maize prices are largely below average with 19 out of the 23 ASAL counties recording prices below LTA. For example, in Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Laikipia and Kitui current prices are lower than LTA by 23, 22, 15, 14 and 13 percent respectively. The below average to average maize prices were attributed to good harvest from previous seasons and sustained supply of stock from neighboring counties and cross-border imports. Table 6.0: Maize prices, January 2021 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Prices Kwale Kajiado Isiolo Meru Mandera Mandera Makueni Lamu West Pokot Taita Taveta Marsabit Meru West Pokot Turkana Wajir Narok Kilifi Samburu Nyeri Tana River Meru Embu Samburu Turkana Kajiado Kitui Taita Taveta Kitui Narok Tharaka Nithi L aikipia Tharaka Nithi W ajir Laikipia Makueni Kwale Nyeri Lamu Marsabit Access to water In about 40 percent of the ASAL counties, distances to water sources have increased compared to the month of December. Some of the largest increase in distances to the main water points for households during the month were in the following counties: Mandera, Kwale, Tana River, Meru (Meru North), Marsabit and Isiolo. In Mandera, for example, average household distance to watering sources increased from 10.5 km in December to 14.4 km in January. In Tana River, current average return distance from household to the main water sources increased from 3.4 km in December to 5.7 km, rising by 68 percent while in Marsabit distance to water sources from the household increased by 18 percent to 9.1 km from 7.7 km recorded in December. The increase in distances to water sources was largely attributed to drying of open water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2021 Distance from Garissa Baringo Kajiado Baringo Isiolo households to Kitui Embu Laikipia Embu Kitui main water Kwale Isiolo Nyeri Garissa Kwale sources Makueni Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Makueni Lamu Mandera Laikipia Wajir Narok Mandera Marsabit Lamu Taita Taveta Marsabit Samburu Meru north Meru North Taita Taveta Narok Samburu Tana River Nyeri Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot The trend in the distances trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distances to water sources from grazing areas increased in 10 ASAL. In addition, access to water for livestock was to some extent more challenging in January compared with normal times as animals had to walk slightly longer distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2016 - 2020 long-term average (LTA). For instance, in Mandera County, the average distance for livestock increased by 35 percent to 14.9 km in January from 11 km in December which is also above the long term mean of 8 km by 86 percent. Similarly in Samburu distances to livestock watering points from grazing areas increased considerably by a proportion of 47 percent from 7.6 km in December to 11.2 km in January while in Isiolo average distances walked by livestock increased by 21 percent from 11.2 to 13.6 km. The increase in trekking distances was attributed to drying of water pans and dams largely because most of the surface water sources were not fully recharged during the short rains season. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, January 2021 Distance from Isiolo Baringo Embu Kajiado Embu Baringo livestock Kwale Kitui Garissa Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo grazing areas Makueni Laikipia Kajiado Kitui Kwale to main water Mandera Nyeri Lamu Marsabit Laikipia sources Narok Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Lamu Wajir Meru North Wajir Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Mandera Tana River Meru North Tharaka Nithi Narok West Pokot Nyeri Samburu Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trends in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. In January 2021, terms of trade in all counties remained favourable, implying that livestock producers in these counties could purchase quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. For example, terms of trade were favourable in Marsabit Tana River, Isiolo, Mandera and Samburu counties as households were able to buy more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat compared to the long term average. In Marsabit county, medium sized goat was exchanged with 84 kg of maize against the long-term average of 74 kg. Likewise, households in Tana River were able to buy 105 kg of maize from the sale of a medium sized goat compared to the long term average of 64 kg. The favourable terms of trade were attributed to the prevailing above average goat prices which were driven by good body condition and high demand while maize prices had remained stable during the October 2020 and January 2021 period. Table 9.0: Terms of trade (ToT), January 2021 Terms of Kajiado Narok Tana River Embu Baringo trade (ToT) Baringo Turkana Isiolo Makueni Kilifi Kajiado Mandera Samburu Wajir Garissa Nyeri Embu Lamu Lamu Taita Taveta Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Makueni Samburu Wajir Mandera Narok West Pokot Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Meru Meru Kwale Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Laikipia Kitui Taita Taveta Health and nutrition The analysis of MUAC data in 25.J0ul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 different ASAL counties showed mixed trends. For example, the proportion of children 6-59 months 20.0 with MUAC less than 125 mm was on a downward trend from July 2020 1s ir5.0 to January 2021 in Garissa (Figure t a 3) while in Wajir the proportion was n 1e c0.0 on an upward trajectory in the r P months to January 2021, indicating a worsening situation. The main drivers of acute 0.0 malnutrition in the Garissa, Isiolo, Garissa Isiolo Mandera Tana river Wajir Mandera, Tana River and Wajir are food insecurity, human diseases, poor infant and young child feeding Figure 3: Proportion of children 6 to 59 with MUAC below 125mm practices. Marsabit had 10.50 percent while Samburu had above 25 percent of children who were malnourished. According to mother MUAC results in Turkana, the proportion of malnourished children based on mid upper arm circumference (colour MUAC) was 6.1 percent. This is a deterioration from 3.5 percent recorded earlier, an indicative deterioration of household food stress across the OND season following the poor performance of the short rains. The high malnutrition rates are possibly influenced by poor child maternal care practices coupled with poor health care seeking behaviour attributed to fear of COVID-19. In Kitui, Embu (Mbeere), Propotion of children 6 to 59 with MUAC below Makueni, Meru (Meru North) and 125mm Tharaka, the proportion of children 8 aged 6-59 months with MUAC less 6 than 125 mm reduced between November 2020 and January 2021 (Figure 4) an indication of 2 improvement in the general nutrition situation. It is projected that the situation will remain stable Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 between March and April 2021. Embu Kitui Makueni Meru Tharaka Nithi Figure 4: Proportion of children 6-59 with MUAC 125mm 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 10 shows the status and trend in drought phase classification in the 23 ASAL counties. Although majority of the counties are still in the normal drought phase, compared to the situation in December the drought status in most ASAL counties deteriorated in January. Currently the drought status is categorized as follows: Normal, 16 counties; Alert, 7 counties. In terms of trend, the situation is as follows: Worsening in 15 counties; Stable in 6 counties; Improving in 2 counties. The declining trend is attributed to the poor rainfall performance observed during the October- November-December (OND) 2020 short rains season in the affected areas. In addition the sunny, dry and hot weather conditions that prevailed over most parts of the country in January 2021 also worsened the situation because the higher than average daytime temperatures experienced in many ASAL counties led to high rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration which caused faster reduction in water levels in open water sources and from the soil surface hence resulting in rapid drying up of dams and water pans, and wilting in pasture and crops. Table 10.0: Drought phase classification, January 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado, Makueni, Meru (Meru Garissa, Lamu, Tana River K wale North), Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Samburu, West Pokot, Kitui, Nithi (Tharaka) Laikipia, Nyeri (Kieni) Alert Baringo, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Turkana Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting food insecure households. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Improvement of marketing infrastructure including provision of hand washing facilities in line with MoH protocols on COVID-19 prevention in order to enhance smooth market operations. Provision of drought tolerant seeds and other farm inputs and tools to farmers and agro pastoralists in preparation for the MAM season. Repair of broken-down water facilities such as strategic boreholes at the same time installing water harvesting structures in strategic institutions. Provision of water treatment chemicals for communities using open surface water sources. Sensitization of good hygiene including hand washing, social distancing and conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 prevention. Continuous engagement and capacity building for mothers and caregivers on use of Family MUAC in order to improve the quality of nutrition data. Scale up mass screening and integrated medical outreaches targeting malnutrition hotspots in all ASAL counties. Conduct inter-county and cross border peace dialogue and conflict resolution meetings to facilitate harmony and resource sharing. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th January 2020 BARINGO County 83.07 67.76 In the month of January, the entire county is in above normal vegetation Central 86.61 75.99 greenness, the situation is stable compared to the previous month of November. Eldama 77.55 69.55 However, there is decline trend in VCI index attributed to gradual caseation on OND short rain season Mogotio 86.27 67.6 North 85.49 68.6 South 75.29 59.81 Tiaty 84.88 68.88 MANDERA County 44.15 32.03 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month of January compared Banissa 52.51 36.58 to the previous month of December. The situation is deteriorating at alarming M East 31.54 21.01 rate with Mandera East already in Moderate vegetation deficit Lafey 35.68 25.14 M North 49.6 36.12 M South 42.76 33.01 M West 45.52 32.88 TURKANA County 81.57 61.81 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and all its sub counties having T Central 67.32 57.61 recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of December except T. East 61.39 48.38 for Turkana East. T. Loima 87.37 68.31 T. North 78.4 55.28 T. South 75.87 61.56 T. West 106.12 78.32 MARSABIT County 37.11 28.15 The county and its sub counties showed a deteriorating VCI condition from the Laisaimis 41.72 29.77 normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in the month of January compared with the previous month of Deecember. Saku sub county Moyale 34.8 30.59 deteriorated to normal from the previous above normal. N. Horr 34.38 25.43 Saku 50.52 49.85 WAJIR County 32.44 28.02 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit. Serious worsening and W East 39.96 34.74 rapid decrease in VCI condition across the county and all sub counties in the month under review. Wajir Eldas and Wajir West are worst as it stands at extreme W.Eldas 17.11 12.1 vegetation deficit. W. North 45.68 34.99 W. South 33.54 32.67 W.Tarbaj 38.39 31.5 W West 14.05 10.99 SAMBURU County 57.84 45.54 S East 51.62 39.04 The entire county and its sub counties deteriorated to normal from above normal S. North 60.78 49.01 vegetation greenness .Samburu west remained above normal. S. West 73.25 60.26 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County 41.82 38.47 The county is in Normal vegetation greenness. The situation is expected to Balambala 38.81 34.76 deteriorate in the coming month. Balambala recorded a moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the month of December. Daadab 39.09 35.56 Fafi 40.88 39.22 Ijara 49.29 45.21 Lagdera 40.88 35.11 Dujis 32.44 27.58 ISIOLO County 35.11 29.17 Major decrease in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county and its I. North 29.88 22.56 sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit. January showed a decrease when compared to the previous month of December. This is attributed I. South 43.1 39.27 t o the early cessation of the OND rains. TANA County 43.41 39.56 The county remained at normal vegetation greenness condition. This situation is RIVER Bura 31.54 29.17 worsening in January as compared to last month of December. Galole 44.11 39.24 Garsen 53.05 48.59 KAJIADO County 57.08 50.08 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kajiado central and West recorded normal K. Central 52.2 47.85 vegetation. K. East 56.62 54.74 K. North 62.27 63.22 K. South 63.81 59.73 K. West 54.45 41.19 LAIKIPIA County 66.31 54.39 The county and its sub counties remained stable thus above normal vegetation L. East 52.85 43.15 greenness. This condition is expected to worsen as Laikipia east recorded normal. L. North 67.79 55.49 L. West 70.02 57.77 THARAKA County 50.41 59.07 The county is in normal vegetation greenness. The situation is improving when NITHI compared to the previous month of December. Tharaka has showed an Chuka 63.93 72.88 improvement in the when this month is compared to last month of December. Maara 65.31 73.45 Tharaka 40.55 49.27 WEST County 82.13 66.79 The vegetation greenness is in above normal condition across the county. The POKOT situation is in stable condition when the previous month of December is Kacheliba 78.23 61.56 considered. The attribution factor is steady and continuous rainfall performance Kapenguria 84.49 69.92 in this region. Pokot South 81.7 72.28 Sigor 87.49 70.43 EMBU County 60.11 70.48 Manyatta 61.45 70.48 Improvement in vegetation condition in the month of January across all the sub- Mbeere North 55.4 65.51 counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. When Mbeere South 60.75 70.36 compared to the month of December. This is due to late onset of rainfall in this area hence prolonged time as well. Runyenjes 66.98 77.7 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT County 44.04 52.16 The county is improving in normal vegetation greenness condition. Mwingi Kitui Central 59.63 70.41 Central has also improved to above normal from moderate vegetation deficit when months of January and December are compared. KITUI Kitui East 43.24 52.22 Mwingi Central 32.01 44.07 Mwingi North 37.28 42.33 Mwingi West 50.05 61.49 Kitui Rural 55.93 65.52 Kitui South 47.6 54.63 Kitui West 56.3 65.15 County 61.71 71.86 There has been a significant stability with the county above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kaiti 76.16 86.87 MAKUENI Kibwezi East 57.58 73.11 Kibwezi West 60.41 71.31 Kilome 65.76 71.31 Makueni 59.43 65.41 Mbooni 68.33 76.05 County 62.04 63.03 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub-counties except for Tigania West. The entire county has a stable vegetation greenness Buuri 65.67 68.07 when the previous month of December is compared with the current month of Central Imenti 61.55 66.04 January. MERU Igembe Central 67.3 65.64 Igembe North 67.01 58.47 Igembe South 63.82 63.98 North Imenti 52.23 58.44 South Imenti 65.91 73.37 Tigania East 50.35 50.24 Tigania West 45.26 57.63 County 68.17 72.65 The county is in a stable state when vegetation greenness is compared between the months of December and January. All the sub-counties recorded above NYERI Kieni 66.4 66.75 normal vegetation greenness condition and that there has been imminent Mathira 65.92 74.43 improvement between the two months. Mukurweini 75.85 80.35 Town 71.05 83.63 Othaya 72.18 84.93 Tetu 70.75 75.6 County 50.19 45.65 Improvement in vegetation condition across all the county with vegetation greenness above normal parts of the county. Ganze 48.11 47.95 Kaloleni 56.57 52.3 KILIFI Magarini 47.96 42.61 Malindi 61.45 50.01 Kilifi-North 64.15 55.15 Rabai 62.89 55.03 Kilifi-South 42.52 39.46 County 57.14 64.28 Above Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is a big KWALE Kinango 55.02 61.91 improvement when month under review is compared to the previous month of Lungalunga 60.06 68.29 December. Matuga 61.46 67.06 Msambweni 57.19 67.06 County 60.1 50.61 Positive Stability in both county and sub counties remaining at above normal LAMU Lamu East 61.71 50.63 vegetation greenness condition. The situation improved in terms of VCI index Lamu West 59.15 49.89 erformance of OND rains. Lamu east has slightly deteriorated to County 53.89 64.17 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition in the above normal to normal TAITA Mwatate 49.6 60.05 category from Normal vegetation greenness recorded in the previous month of TAVETA December. The situation could be due to good OND rainfall performance Taveta 57.33 59.84 Voi 53.02 66.12 Wundanyi 61.68 76.64 County 70.83 67.88 Narok-East 61.79 52.98 NAROK Emurua Dikirr 92.71 93.19 Stability in the vegetation greenness was noted across the county and its entire Kilgoris 83.93 82.41 sub-counties. The situation could be stable due to good rainfall performance Narok-North 67.2 69.41 within the entire county and the continuity period is still good. Narok-South 62.05 56.41 Narok-West 76.87 75.33 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "March_2021.pdf": "March 2021 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Onset of the October-November- Water availability is steadily worsening or remaining December (OND) 2020 occurred around stable with most of the existing open water sources mid-October and currently nearly all the such as dams, rock catchments and water pans now ASAL counties limited or no rainfall at all. absolutely dry and approximately 10 percent The delayed onset of this years long rain capacity. Access to water for households and season of MAM season and its livestock remains stable worsens since distances to performance so far suggests that most watering points has increased significantly across all ASAL areas will probably experience near counties. As a result, livestock body condition and normal rainfall. Consequently, it is milk production worsen or remains stable. anticipated that the 2021 March to May short rains are likely to impact positively Although key drought indicators in a number of on both livestock and crop production. counties have not yet returned to normal, significant improvement has been observed in most of the The condition of pasture and browse in counties with the trend improving and stable in 14 many ASAL areas has remained fair to and 9 counties respectively. Currently there are 13 poor some extent following the last short counties in normal, seven in alert, one in recovery and rains of 2020. Pasture and browse three in alarm, compared with eight in normal, seven regeneration are expected to blossom as in alert and eight in the alarm drought phase in some parts of the country are already September. experiencing onset of MAM rainy season and is projected to reach the normal ranges in terms of quantity and quality by end of May or early June. Drought phase classification, February 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado Kwale Kitui Makueni Laikipia Meru Narok Nyeri Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Alert Baringo Garissa Emergency 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall The start of the October-November-December (OND) 2020 seasonal rains was timely over several ASAL areas with some counties such as Marsabit, Mandera Wajir, Kitui, Taita Taveta and Makueni where onset was slightly earlier than expected. The rainfall was characterized by heavy storms and were also fairly well distributed, both in time and space. Most ASAL counties experienced one of the wettest October on record since 1981 with the cumulative rainfall amounts received in most counties exceeding 200 percent of their October long term average (LTA). In Samburu, for example, the county received rainfall totals that were above the long-term average (LTA) by 162 percent. In the first, second and third dekad, Makueni County received 29.3 mm, 23.4 mm and 57.2 mm compared with LTA of 6.7 mm, 8.6 mm and 13.5 mm respectively. Currently, the ASAL counties have not received the 2021 long rains as based on KMD predictions, the rains are likely to begin in the 3rd week of march and 1st week of April. The condition of vegetation continues to deteriorate in almost all ASAL counties which is attributed to the limited rains received in short rain season of 2020. The situation has extended and much anticipated long rains onset has delayed. The negative trends observed in many areas point to a poor regeneration of pasture during the month of February. Moreover, in Wajir (West and East), VCI values are still indicating severe vegetation deficit since the rains received so far have not increased the vegetation greenness to the expected normal ranges for the period. Figure 1 illustrates the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2020 with that in March 2021. Detailed VCI values for February are presented in Annex 1. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2020 and March 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2021 Water sources The water situation has significantly dwindled across the ASAL counties as a dry-up of the impounded water during the short rains of last year. The main water sources during the month, both for domestic and livestock use were pans and dams, shallow wells, boreholes and rivers. Households also reported using piped water and roof catchment system as water sources during the reporting period. Water levels have improved since most surface water sources were recharged to over 70 percent of their normal capacity. For instance, In Marsabit County, 100 percent of open water sources in Moyale and Saku sub-counties are recharged while only 45 percent of open water sources in North Horr and Laisamis sub-counties have been recharged. In Turkana the open water sources including pans and rock catchments are recharged to over 75 percent capacity across the three livelihood zones with the normal flow characterized by moderate volume resuming in all the seasonal rivers. Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently not better compared to last month due to decrease in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in trekking distances in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and poor conditions as shown in Table 1. The depreciation in pasture and browse condition was attributed to the little amount of rainfall received in the last short rain season and this could not sustain water requirements of pasture and browse hitherto. The delayed onset of this years long rains is also another factor for the poor pasture and browse condition. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2021 Pasture Browse Baringo Kitui Kajiado Baringo Embu Kajiado Garissa Kwale Meru Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Isiolo Lamu Taita-Taveta Isiolo Kitui Narok Kilifi Makueni Mandera Kwale Taita-Taveta Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Mandera Narok Turkana Lamu Nyeri Samburu Makueni Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Meru Turkana Samburu Wajir Tana-River West-Pokot Tharaka-Nithi Livestock body condition As a result of decrease in forage and water availability body condition for livestock has started decreasing after early cessation of short rains of 2020 as illustrated in Table 2. Most of counties livestock body condition were in fair category. In Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties, the goats were in poor category in the month of March. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, March 2021 Goats Cattle Garissa Baringo Kajiado Turkana Baringo Embu Mandera Embu Meru Wajir Garissa Kajiado Nyeri Isiolo Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Isiolo Taita-Taveta Samburu Kilifi Kilifi Tana-River Kitui Kwale Turkana Kwale Wajir Laikipia West-Pokot Lamu Mandera Milk production Milk production is generally on a stable trend across counties during the month under review. However, there are decreasing trends being noted, for example, in Kilifi County, average milk production per household per day decreased by 27 percent to 2.7 litres in March from 3.7 litres in February while household milk production per day in Lamu rose by 42 percent from 2.4 litres in February to 3.4 litres in March. General decreasing trend in milk production was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition due to significant increase in trekking distances in search of water and forage by livestock. Table 3.0: Milk production, March 2021 Milk Embu Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Garissa Baringo Production Garissa Kitui Kajiado Kitui Kwale Embu Lamu Taita Kilifi Lamu Makueni Isiolo Makueni Taveta Kwale Meru Kilifi Samburu Mandera Mandera West-Pokot Marsabit Marsabit Meru Turkana Tharaka West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are either stable or worsening owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on a downward trend. However, in spite of the recorded stability in cattle price during the period under review, the prevailing price is higher than the three- year average price of cattle for the month of March in about 60 percent of the ASAL counties. For instance, in Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado and Lamu the current prices are above LTA by 66, 62 and 61 respectively. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, March 2021 Indicat Current status Trend or Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Baringo Marsabit Embu Makueni Baringo Embu Prices Garissa Taita Mandera Meru Garissa Lamu Isiolo Taveta Samburu Tharaka- Isiolo Mandera Kajiado Turkana Nithi Kajiado Nyeri Kilifi Tana River Kitui West Pokot Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of March, goat prices in most ASAL areas were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, West Pokot and Turkana counties where they were below the three-year average price due to below average forage and poor body condition owing to the poorly performed last year OND rains. Table 5.0: Goat prices, March 2021 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Goat Baringo Isiolo Kwale Kwale Embu Baringo Prices Embu Lamu Mandera Garissa Lamu Garissa Samburu Marsabit Isiolo Turkana Kajiado Wajir Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Turkana Kilifi Kitui West-Pokot Kitui Laikipia Laikipia Makueni Makueni Meru Mandera Narok Marsabit Taita Taveta Meru Tana River Narok Tharaka-Nithi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Agricultural activities undertaken during the month of October in the marginal agricultural counties such as Makueni, Kitui, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka, Meru North and Nyeri (Kieni) include land preparation, planting and weeding. In most of these counties the area planted is above normal, which is mainly driven by county government support to farmers with tractors. The condition of the crops is generally good and overall the on-going rains are expected to impact crop production positively this season. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in March. Moreover, the current maize prices are largely at average with about 60 percent of the counties recording prices atclose LTA. For example, in Nyeri, Kitui, Isiolo, Narok, Samburu, Baringo and Turkana current prices are atclose LTA. Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Meru and Nyeri counties have a worsening trend. The increase in maize prices in Lamu is attributed to diminishing stocks of maize at household level and a slight decrease in maize supply in most markets. Table 6.0: Maize prices, March 2021 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Isiolo Baringo Embu Prices Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Tana River Garissa Kajiado Makueni Kitui Kilifi Wajir Kilifi Kwale Mandera Narok Laikipia West-Pokot Kitui Meru Marsabit Nyeri Lamu Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Meru Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Tana River Makueni Wajir West-Pokot Mandera Access to water The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Return distances to water for households have generally increased in nearly all ASAL counties. The reduction in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the dwindling water points around due to poorly performed short rains of 2020. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2021 Distance from Embu Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Baringo Embu households to Garissa Isiolo Lamu Garissa Isiolo main water Kilifi Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Kilifi sources Kwale Kitui Narok Kwale Meru Makueni Laikipia Nyeri Lamu Tharaka Mandera Makueni Samburu Narok Nithi Marsabit Mandera Tana River Meru Taita Taveta Turkana Tharaka- Samburu West Taita Taveta Pokot The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Average return distances to water for livestock increased in February following the dwindling of water points due to poor short rains of 2020. In all ASAL counties, except Tana river access to water for livestock was in a worsening trend. Only Kajiado, Narok and Marsabit counties are in improving trend Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2021 Distance from Baringo Wet- Kajiado Kajiado Embu Baringo livestock Embu Pokot Kilifi Marsabit Laikipia Garissa grazing area to Garissa Laikipia Kitui Narok Lamu Isiolo main water Isiolo Narok Marsabit Makueni Kilifi sources Kwale Taita Taveta Meru Kitui Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Tana River Kwale Makueni Tharaka- Mandera Mandera Nithi Nyeri Meru Wajir Samburu Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Turkana Tana River West Pokot Terms of trade Each month, the drought early warning system monitors the relative price of goats and maize, showing the number of kilograms of cereal that can be exchanged for one goat. Table 9 summarizes the movements on the previous month and the trend. In almost 70 percent of the counties the terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month while in 3 counties; Turkana, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit and Nyeri the ToT are showing a below average. Garissa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Nyeri, Samburu and Turkana counties are showing a worsening trend. The unfavourable terms of trade are attributed to the fact that the price of goats had declined while the price of maize had increased. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, March 2021 Terms of Baringo Kitui Kwale Embu Garissa Baringo trade Embu Samburu Mandera Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo (ToT) Garissa Taita Marsabit Makueni Kitui Laikipia Isiolo Taveta Nyeri Meru Kwale Lamu Kajiado Turkana Nyeri Mandera Tana River Kilifi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Laikipia Narok West-Pokot Lamu Samburu Makueni Tharaka- Meru Nithi Narok Wajir Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. The situation in most counties isstable and worsening with close to 90 percent of the counties currently on either an worsening or stabilizing trend. For example, the ratio of the under-fives rated as being at risk of malnutrition rise in February compared with January by 200, 85 and 62 percent in Samburu, Kitui and Makueni respectively. The stabilizing and worsening trend was attributed to decrease in milk consumption and impact of ongoing health and nutrition interventions. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2021 Mandera Embu Garissa Tharaka- Kwale Garissa Marsabit Baringo Kitui Nithi Lamu Isiolo MUAC Tana river Embu Kajiado Laikipia Tana river Kitui Turkana Kwale Narok Kajiado Wajir Makueni Isiolo Laikipia Nyeri Baringo West pokot Mandera Kilifi Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Embu Meru Marsabit Samburu Makueni Kilifi Nyeri Narok Taita-Taveta Meru Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir T urkana 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The key drought indicators in a number of counties have not yet returned to normal, as a result, significant deterioration has been observed in most of the counties with the trend in worsening and stable in 16 and 7 counties respectively. Currently there are 13 counties in normal, seven in alert, none in recovery and two in alarm compared to 12 counties in normal, eight in alert, none in recovery and three in alarm in the previous month. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, March 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu Baringo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Kwale Narok Makueni Taita Taveta Meru North Tharaka-Nithi Nyeri (Kieni) Alert Garissa Projected food security situation Based on the February 19th weather forecast by Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), episodes of MAM rainfall onset may occur in 4th week of march to 1st week of April in most of the Arid counties and 3rd to 4th week of march for semi-arid counties. The cumulative rainfall amounts are expected to be normal as the long-term average received during the same period. Overall, despite some negative impacts from flash floods, the enhanced rainfall is expected to support regeneration of both pasture and browse; and improve water availability and access which is likely to result in increased livestock productivity in the ASAL counties. Good crop performance is expected across the ASAL region which is likely to exhibit improved crop production in the marginal agricultural counties. 3 Recommendations Provision of food assistance and scale up of cash transfer targeting households currently food insecure as a result of the recent drought and those affected by floods. Awareness raising and support to households living in flood prone areas to move to safer groundsarea to avoid loss of lives and destruction of property. Promotion of rain water harvesting technologies. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Promote pasture establishment and conservation including deferred grazing management and participatory rangeland management. Provision of seeds and farm tools to households in the marginal agricultural and agro- pastoral areas affected by floods. Continue sensitization on, scouting for and monitoring of fall armyworm infestation in order to avert crop losses. Promotion of appropriate post-harvest management practices. Enhance hygiene promotion and provision of water treatment chemicals to control waterborne diseases. Intensify peace building initiatives to advocate for peaceful coexistence and sharing of resources. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th March 2020 BARINGO County 51.8 42 The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation Central 60.27 45.08 greenness as compared to previous month when they recorded Eldama 56.38 44.04 above normal vegetation greenness. This is attributed to some light Mogotio 47.5 35.66 showers from the MAM rainfall season onset North 52.03 39.58 South 44.82 39.51 Tiaty 44.72 53.32 MANDERA County 23.09 23.87 The county and its sub counties are in moderate deficit in the Banissa 24.44 21.08 month of March. The situation experienced is due to late onset of M East 18.2 20.34 the MAM seasonal rainfall. Notably, Mandera East improved from Lafey 20.25 21.13 severe to moderate vegetation deficit. M North 25.21 23.89 M South 24.79 28.86 M West 22 23.61 TURKANA County 50.86 52.8 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and all its sub T Central 62.38 74.84 counties having recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the T. East 42.15 40.69 month of March. Turkana North and East recorded normal T. Loima 62.81 65.62 vegetation greenness. T. North 40.08 40.66 T. South 53.62 55.47 T. West 57.89 59.45 MARSABI County 22.8 31.72 The county and three of its sub counties remained at moderate T Laisaimis 22.81 32.26 vegetation deficit band. Saku sub county was stable at normal Moyale 21.78 25.38 vegetation greenness. This is due to small warm humid micro- N. Horr 25.43 32.39 climate within Saku hills. Saku 44.92 43.32 WAJIR County 22.37 24.86 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit with Wajir W East 25.89 26.1 Eldas and Wajir West recording a severe vegetation deficit. The W. Eldas 9.71 16.47 attributing factor is late onset of MAM long rains season. W. North 25.09 31.18 W. South 28.07 26.85 W. Tarbaj 22.41 26.17 W West 10.57 15.58 SAMBURU County 33.77 36.34 The county improved to Normal vegetation greenness from S East 26.49 27.87 Moderate vegetation greenness deficit band however Samburu S. North 39.2 44.53 East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. West 44.82 42.58 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County 31.39 28.27 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation Balambala 26.47 23.19 deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal Daadab 28.59 24.8 vegetation greenness band. Fafi 33.84 29.56 Ijara 37.86 36.7 Lagdera 24.8 22.52 Dujis 20.8 21.77 ISIOLO County 22.54 23.45 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county I. North 18.42 23.25 and its sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit. I. South Isiolo North improved to Moderate vegetation deficit from the 28.83 23.76 previous severe vegetation deficit band. TANA County 34.3 33.28 The county and its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation RIVER Bura 26.5 25.41 condition. Garsen remained at Normal vegetation greenness. Galole 26.5 33.19 Garsen 41.15 40.01 KAJIADO County 52.28 68.25 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining K. Central 53.26 69.8 at above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kajiado county K. East 55.51 68.6 according to Kenya Met rainfall onset predictions received its K. North 62.6 68.4 onset rains on time, 3rd dekad of March K. South 55 64.47 K. West 47.88 70.29 LAIKIPIA County 40.03 38.8 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with L. East 30.78 34.76 Laikipia East maintaining moderate vegetation deficit as L. North 41.02 39.39 compared to the previous month. L. West 42.63 39.65 THARAKA County 56.18 50.01 The county is in above normal vegetation greenness in the month NITHI Chulga 70.67 68.33 under review. The situation is stable when compared to the Maara 72.88 72.56 previous month of February. Tharaka remained at normal Tharaka 45.39 35.91 vegetation greenness. WEST County 53.12 42.85 The vegetation greenness deteriorated for both the county and its POKOT Kacheliba 48.16 38.24 sub counties recording normal condition compared to the previous Kapenguri above normal. Kapenguria has remained at above normal 58.76 51.68 a vegetation greenness. Pokot 59.02 46.25 Sigor 53.92 41.78 EMBU County 71.32 68.82 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month Manyatta 79.68 81.9 of March across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness Mbeere above normal in all parts of the county. 63.82 59.32 Mbeere 70.77 66.41 Runyenjes 80.93 84.68 ADMINISTRATIVE Feb 2021 Mar 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above normal County 51.71 41.59 The county and most of its sub counties recorded normal Kitui vegetation greenness condition. Mwingi North recorded moderate 69.98 62.32 Central vegetation deficit. Kitui East 54.45 44.71 KITUI 49.3 39.76 37.76 28.1 64.7 59.16 Kitui Rural 62.19 48.08 Kitui South 52.08 40.05 Kitui West 67.85 64.71 County 75.53 70.39 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation Kaiti 88.8 81.45 greenness conditions. The situation is stable when the current and Kibwezi previous months are compared. 78.08 70.11 MAKUENI Kibwezi 75.02 71.43 Kilome 70.78 73.02 Makueni 66.9 61.82 Mbooni 82.6 75.49 MERU County 56.18 52.78 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and Buuri 56.18 60.64 its Sub-counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south Tigania Central East and Igembe North which recorded normal vegetation 62.79 63.2 Imenti greenness. 52.09 43.4 44.78 38.79 50.92 42.35 59.74 60.29 74.87 76.63 45.26 46.35 61.45 57.24 County 70.33 71.21 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above Kieni 61.51 61.56 normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of Mathira 78.41 78.47 February. NYERI Mukurwein 81.23 84.3 Town 84.64 86.18 Othaya 83.45 86.47 Tetu 76.69 83.49 County 38.7 31.2 Deterioration in vegetation condition across the county and most Ganze 40.09 26.03 of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit however Kaloleni 40.32 27.69 Kilifi North recorded normal vegetation deficit. Magarini 37.95 33.52 KILIFI Malindi 37.95 31.19 44.28 37.54 Rabai 39.26 32.7 28.65 23.04 County 59.16 51.29 Above Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county Kinango 55.81 45.9 which is a stability when the month under review is compared to KWALE Lungalung 61.71 54.78 the previous month of February. Kinango recorded normal vegetation deficit. Matuga 67.2 64.76 Msambwen 66.07 64.34 County 38.94 37.22 The county remained in normal vegetation greenness however Lamu East 37.5 34.72 Lamu East recorded moderate condition. Lamu West 39.77 38.66 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above County 64.63 58.03 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the TAITA Mwatate 62.72 63.5 county together with its all-sub-counties. TAVETA Taveta 59.61 58.36 Voi 65.97 55.12 Wundanyi 80.17 71.94 County 67.91 71.51 51.75 60.99 Emurua 87.31 82.44 Dikirr The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal Kilgoris 79.72 77.78 vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the NAROK 64.25 59.17 timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March. 59.72 69.43 77.06 80.2 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 2. ALERT 5. RECOVERY fluctuate outside expected return to seasonal norms 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and production All indicators are outside indicators fluctuate outside normal ranges",
            "April_2021.pdf": "April 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Onset of the long rains season was late as most ASAL counties did not receive rainfall from the second and third week of March when the March- April-May (MAM) season normally begins. During the month of March, depressed rainfall was experienced over most parts of the ASAL region with large areas in counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Baringo, Kajiado, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale and Lamu receiving less than 50 percent of average amounts in March as shown in Figure 1. The distribution of rainfall in time and space was generally poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1: Rainfall Performance; Percent of March LTA Figure 2 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2020 with that in March 2021. When compared to similar period last year and the long term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of March 2020. Figure 2: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2020 and March 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2021 As at the end of March 2021 counties with the highest vegetation deficit were Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River and Samburu. The seven counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in March 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at 29th March 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Wajir West and Eldas in Wajir County recorded the lowest VCI values with the two sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in March 2021. Generally, the negative VCI trends observed in many ASAL areas point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of March. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Severe vegetation deficit Wajir West Eldas (Wajir) Moderate vegetation deficit Samburu Wajir (32) Mandera Garissa Marsabit Isiolo Normal vegetation greenness Laikipia (30) Kilifi Vegetation greenness above West Pokot Nyeri (49) normal Taita Taveta Meru Turkana Kwale Baringo Embu Kajiado Kitui Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently poorer compared to last month due to decrease in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in distances walked by livestock in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and poor conditions as shown in Table 1. The reduction in pasture and browse condition was attributed to the little amount of rainfall received in the 2020 October to December short rain season which did not support satisfactory growth of pasture and browse. The delayed onset of this years March-April-May long rains is also another factor for the poor pasture and browse condition. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2021 Baringo Kitui Kajiado Baringo Embu Kajiado Garissa Kwale Meru Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Isiolo Lamu Taita Taveta Isiolo Kitui Narok Kilifi Makueni Mandera Kwale Taita Taveta Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Mandera Narok Turkana Lamu Nyeri Samburu Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Meru Turkana Samburu Wajir Tana River West-Pokot Tharaka Nithi West-Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition has slightly declined compared to last month due to the increase in trekking distances in search of pasture and water coupled with reduction in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair and poor as shown in Table 2. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, March 2021 Garissa Baringo Kajiado Turkana Baringo Embu Mandera Embu Meru Wajir Garissa Kajiado Nyeri Isiolo Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Taita Taveta Samburu Kilifi Kilifi Tana River Kitui Kitui Turkana Kwale Kwale Wajir Laikipia Laikipia West Pokot Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Marsabit Mandera Narok Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Meru Nyeri Milk production In comparison to the long term average; current milk production in seven counties is above LTA while in twelve counties which includes: Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Meru, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi the current amount is below LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to water scarcity and inadequate forage. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 3. Table 3.0: Milk production, March 2021 Milk Embu Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Garissa Baringo Production Garissa Kitui Kajiado Kitui Kwale Embu Lamu Taita Taveta Kilifi Lamu Makueni Isiolo Makueni Tana River Kwale Meru Kilifi Narok Laikipia Narok Laikipia Samburu Mandera Nyeri Mandera West Pokot Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Meru Samburu Turkana Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are either stable or worsening owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on a downward trend as illustrated in Table 4. However, in spite of the recorded stability in cattle price during the period under review, the prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of March in about 70 percent of the ASAL counties. For instance, in Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado and Narok the current prices are above LTA by 66, 62 and 42 percent respectively. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, March 2021 Cattle Baringo Taita Taveta Embu Makueni Baringo Embu Prices Garissa Marsabit Mandera Meru Garissa Lamu Isiolo Kwale Samburu Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Mandera Kajiado Turkana Kajiado Nyeri Kilifi Kilifi Tana River Kitui Kitui West Pokot Laikipia Laikipia Lamu Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Tana River Kwale Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of November goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, West Pokot, Kwale and Nyeri where they were below the three-year average price which was attributed to the deterioration in body condition of the goats owing to poor pasture and browse. Table 5.0: Goat prices, March 2021 Goat Baringo, Embu, Meru Isiolo Kwale Kwale Isiolo, Kajiado, Embu Turkana Prices Narok, Garissa, Kitui Lamu Mandera Wajir, Narok, Meru, West Baringo Laikipia, Makueni Samburu Marsabit Pokot, Kilifi Samburu, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi Wajir Nyeri Garissa Laikipia Makueni, Tharaka Nithi Turkana Nyeri Mandera, Kitui Taita Taveta W est Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Taita T ana River Taveta, Tana River Land preparation and planting for the March to May (MAM) long rains season are on-going across the marginal agricultural areas. The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to impact negatively on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, farmers have been advised to plant fast-maturing crops and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below- average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in March. As demonstrated in Table 6, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 15 counties recording prices that are below or close LTA. However, Tana River, Isiolo, West Pokot and Wajir reported a worsening trend. For instance in Tana River County the average price for a kilogram of maize increased by 7 percent from Kshs 43 in February to Kshs 46 in March which was attributed to decrease in maize supply in markets due to below average seasonal harvests. Similarly, an uptrend in maize prices was reported in West Pokot as a result of diminishing maize stocks at household level and a decrease in maize supply in markets such as Chepareria, Sigor and Makutano. Table 6.0: Maize prices, March 2021 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Embu Baringo West Pokot Prices Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Kajiado Garissa Tana River Makueni Kitui Kilifi Kwale Kilifi Isiolo Mandera Narok Laikipia Meru Kitui Wajir Marsabit Nyeri Lamu Nyeri Laikipia Taita Taveta Samburu Meru Lamu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Tana River Makueni Wajir West Pokot Mandera Access to water for households Average distances to water for households increased in March in more counties than they were reducing. For instance, household distances reduced in only five counties, remained the same as the previous month in 8 counties and increased in 10 counties. At the same time, return distances to water for households are above the long term average in 14 ASAL counties. In Turkana County for example, average distances to water sources by households increased significantly by 43 percent from 8.3 km in February to 11.9 km in March. Likewise, in Samburu, access to water for domestic use increased by 30 percent compared with last month as households had to walk an average of 9.2 km to water points in March compared with 7.1 km in February. The increase in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the drying up of surface water sources due to the poor performance of the October to December short rains of 2020 and the delayed onset of the MAM season. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2021 Distance from Embu Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Baringo Embu households to Garissa Isiolo Lamu Garissa Isiolo main water Kilifi Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Kilifi sources Kwale Kitui Narok Kwale Meru Makueni Lamu Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Nyeri Mandera Narok Makueni Samburu Marsabit Tana River Mandera Tana River Meru Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Turkana Nyeri Wajir Samburu West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 8. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas increased in all counties except in Kajiado, Narok and Marsabit. In addition, access to water for livestock was more challenging in March compared with normal times in most ASAL counties as the average trekking distances from the main water sources to grazing areas for livestock recorded in March 2021 was above the 2016 - 2020 long-term average (LTA) in 14 counties. The increase in trekking distances was attributed to diminishing pastures and drying up of water sources. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2021 Distance from Baringo West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Embu Baringo livestock Embu Laikipia Taita Taveta Marsabit Laikipia Garissa grazing areas Garissa Narok Marsabit Narok Lamu Isiolo to main water Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Kilifi Kwale Kilifi Meru Kitui sources Lamu Kitui Tana River Kwale Makueni Tharaka Nithi Mandera Mandera Wajir Nyeri Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Turkana Tana River West Pokot Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all but five counties ToT values are above the long term average (LTA). For instance, in Laikipia, Tana River, West Pokot, Wajir, Narok and Isiolo the current ToT are higher than the 2016 - 2020 average for March by 46, 44, 31, 26, 22 and 17 percent respectively. The relatively favourable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices had remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavourable in Kwale, Turkana, Nyeri, Mandera and Marsabit counties where the current ToT were lower than the long term average for March by 35, 14, 12, 8 and 6 respectively. The poor terms of trade were due to decrease in the goat prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, March 2021 Terms of Baringo Kitui Kwale Embu Garissa Baringo trade Embu Samburu Mandera Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo (ToT) Garissa Taita Taveta Marsabit Makueni Kitui Laikipia Isiolo Nyeri Meru Kwale Lamu Kajiado Turkana Nyeri Mandera Tana River Kilifi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Laikipia Narok West Pokot Lamu Samburu Makueni Tharaka Nithi Meru Wajir Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. The situation in most counties is stable and worsening with 21 out of 23 counties currently on either a worsening (5) or stable (16) trend. In the month of March, counties with malnutrition rates above LTA include: Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Baringo, Lamu, and Meru. The observed negative trend in malnutrition was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production, livestock migration, and reduced household purchasing power due to the unfavourable ToT which impacted on food access resulting to inadequate dietary intake. In Marsabit, Turkana, Mandera, Samburu and Tana River increase in malnutrition cases was also associated with the reduction in the number of integrated health outreaches which has impacted negatively on the delivery of health and nutrition services. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2021 Isiolo Embu Garissa Kitui Taita Taveta, Lamu Tana River Baringo Kwale Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kwale, Meru, Nyeri West Pokot MUAC Lamu Makueni Kajiado Garissa, Isiolo Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Narok Makueni, Mandera Turkana Marsabit Samburu Turkana Narok, Samburu Wajir Meru Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Laikipia, Kajiado Tana River Wajir Taita Taveta Baringo, Embu West Pokot Kilifi Laikipia 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of March 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, three (3) counties; Mandera, Marsabit and Turkana are in the alarm drought phase, while seven (7) counties namely Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Lamu, Tana River, Kilifi, and Samburu are in alert drought stage. During the month under review, sixteen (16) counties reported a worsening trend with seven (7) counties recording a stable trend. The prevailing drought situation is mainly attributed to the delayed onset of the March to May long rains. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, March 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Laikipia, Kitui, Nyeri (Kieni), West Pokot Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Makueni, Kwale (Tharaka) Meru (Meru North) Alert Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Lamu Tana River, Kilifi, Samburu Alarm Marsabit Mandera 3 Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th March 2020 BARINGO County 51.8 42 The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation Central 60.27 45.08 greenness as compared to previous month when they recorded Eldama 56.38 44.04 above normal vegetation greenness. This is attributed to some light Mogotio 47.5 35.66 showers from the MAM rainfall season onset North 52.03 39.58 South 44.82 39.51 Tiaty 44.72 53.32 MANDERA County 23.09 23.87 The county and its sub counties are in moderate deficit in the Banissa 24.44 21.08 month of March. The situation experienced is due to late onset of M East 18.2 20.34 the MAM seasonal rainfall. Notably, Mandera East improved from Lafey 20.25 21.13 severe to moderate vegetation deficit. M North 25.21 23.89 M South 24.79 28.86 M West 22 23.61 TURKANA County 50.86 52.8 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and all its sub T Central 62.38 74.84 counties having recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the T. East 42.15 40.69 month of March. Turkana North and East recorded normal T. Loima 62.81 65.62 vegetation greenness. T. North 40.08 40.66 T. South 53.62 55.47 T. West 57.89 59.45 MARSABI County 22.8 31.72 The county and three of its sub counties remained at moderate T Laisaimis 22.81 32.26 vegetation deficit band. Saku sub county was stable at normal Moyale 21.78 25.38 vegetation greenness. This is due to small warm humid micro- N. Horr 25.43 32.39 climate within Saku hills. Saku 44.92 43.32 WAJIR County 22.37 24.86 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit with Wajir W East 25.89 26.1 Eldas and Wajir West recording a severe vegetation deficit. The W. Eldas 9.71 16.47 attributing factor is late onset of MAM long rains season. W. North 25.09 31.18 W. South 28.07 26.85 W. Tarbaj 22.41 26.17 W West 10.57 15.58 SAMBURU County 33.77 36.34 The county improved to Normal vegetation greenness from S East 26.49 27.87 Moderate vegetation greenness deficit band however Samburu S. North 39.2 44.53 East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. West 44.82 42.58 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County 31.39 28.27 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation Balambala 26.47 23.19 deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal Daadab 28.59 24.8 vegetation greenness band. Fafi 33.84 29.56 Ijara 37.86 36.7 Lagdera 24.8 22.52 Dujis 20.8 21.77 ISIOLO County 22.54 23.45 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county I. North 18.42 23.25 and its sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit. I. South Isiolo North improved to Moderate vegetation deficit from the 28.83 23.76 previous severe vegetation deficit band. TANA County 34.3 33.28 The county and its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation RIVER Bura 26.5 25.41 condition. Garsen remained at Normal vegetation greenness. Galole 26.5 33.19 Garsen 41.15 40.01 KAJIADO County 52.28 68.25 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining K. Central 53.26 69.8 at above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kajiado county K. East 55.51 68.6 according to Kenya Met rainfall onset predictions received its K. North 62.6 68.4 onset rains on time, 3rd dekad of March K. South 55 64.47 K. West 47.88 70.29 LAIKIPIA County 40.03 38.8 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with L. East 30.78 34.76 Laikipia East maintaining moderate vegetation deficit as L. North 41.02 39.39 compared to the previous month. L. West 42.63 39.65 THARAKA County 56.18 50.01 The county is in above normal vegetation greenness in the month NITHI Chulga 70.67 68.33 under review. The situation is stable when compared to the Maara 72.88 72.56 previous month of February. Tharaka remained at normal Tharaka 45.39 35.91 vegetation greenness. WEST County 53.12 42.85 The vegetation greenness deteriorated for both the county and its POKOT Kacheliba 48.16 38.24 sub counties recording normal condition compared to the previous Kapenguri above normal. Kapenguria has remained at above normal 58.76 51.68 a vegetation greenness. Pokot 59.02 46.25 Sigor 53.92 41.78 EMBU County 71.32 68.82 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month Manyatta 79.68 81.9 of March across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness Mbeere above normal in all parts of the county. 63.82 59.32 Mbeere 70.77 66.41 Runyenjes 80.93 84.68 ADMINISTRATIVE Feb 2021 Mar 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above normal County 51.71 41.59 The county and most of its sub counties recorded normal Kitui vegetation greenness condition. Mwingi North recorded moderate 69.98 62.32 Central vegetation deficit. Kitui East 54.45 44.71 KITUI 49.3 39.76 37.76 28.1 64.7 59.16 Kitui Rural 62.19 48.08 Kitui South 52.08 40.05 Kitui West 67.85 64.71 County 75.53 70.39 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation Kaiti 88.8 81.45 greenness conditions. The situation is stable when the current and Kibwezi previous months are compared. 78.08 70.11 MAKUENI Kibwezi 75.02 71.43 Kilome 70.78 73.02 Makueni 66.9 61.82 Mbooni 82.6 75.49 MERU County 56.18 52.78 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and Buuri 56.18 60.64 its Sub-counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south Tigania Central East and Igembe North which recorded normal vegetation 62.79 63.2 Imenti greenness. 52.09 43.4 44.78 38.79 50.92 42.35 59.74 60.29 74.87 76.63 45.26 46.35 61.45 57.24 County 70.33 71.21 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above Kieni 61.51 61.56 normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of Mathira 78.41 78.47 February. NYERI Mukurwein 81.23 84.3 Town 84.64 86.18 Othaya 83.45 86.47 Tetu 76.69 83.49 County 38.7 31.2 Deterioration in vegetation condition across the county and most Ganze 40.09 26.03 of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit however Kaloleni 40.32 27.69 Kilifi North recorded normal vegetation deficit. Magarini 37.95 33.52 KILIFI Malindi 37.95 31.19 44.28 37.54 Rabai 39.26 32.7 28.65 23.04 County 59.16 51.29 Above Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county Kinango 55.81 45.9 which is a stability when the month under review is compared to KWALE Lungalung 61.71 54.78 the previous month of February. Kinango recorded normal vegetation deficit. Matuga 67.2 64.76 Msambwen 66.07 64.34 County 38.94 37.22 The county remained in normal vegetation greenness however Lamu East 37.5 34.72 Lamu East recorded moderate condition. Lamu West 39.77 38.66 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above County 64.63 58.03 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the TAITA Mwatate 62.72 63.5 county together with its all-sub-counties. TAVETA Taveta 59.61 58.36 Voi 65.97 55.12 Wundanyi 80.17 71.94 County 67.91 71.51 51.75 60.99 Emurua 87.31 82.44 Dikirr The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal Kilgoris 79.72 77.78 vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the NAROK 64.25 59.17 timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March. 59.72 69.43 77.06 80.2 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "May_2021.pdf": "May 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Onset of the long rains season was late as most ASAL counties did not receive rainfall from the second and third week of March when the March-April-May (MAM) season normally begins. During the month of April, depressed rainfall was experienced over most parts of the ASAL region with large areas in counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana river, Kilifi, Lamu, Laikipia and Nyeri (Kieni) receiving less than 50 percent of average amounts in April. Some parts of Mandera and Taita taveta received slightly above normal rains of between 75-100 percent of average amounts as shown in Figure 1.Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Figure Rainfall performance as percentage of normal. Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), rainfall is expected to continue during the month of May 2021.Counties in North-western Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to receive rainfall characterized with near to slightly above average rainfall. Occasional rainfall is likely to occur during the second half of the month. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average for the region. North-eastern Region including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo will receive Occasional rainfall that is expected at the beginning of May. The rainfall is however likely to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to cessation period. The expected rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average for the month of May. South-eastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta): Occasional rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. It is however expected to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season ceases. The rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the long-term average for the month of May. The Coastal Strip (Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale): is expected to receive occasional rainfall in May. The expected rainfall amounts are likely to be below the long-term average. May marks the peak of the Long rains season in the Coastal Strip. Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Central Kenya (Nyeri, Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi): Above average rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. However occasional dry spells are likely especially during the Figure 1.Rainfall forecast for May 2021 second half of the forecast period. The rainfall amounts are likely to be above the long-term average for the region. Figure 2 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in April 2020 with that in April 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of April 2020. Figure 2: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2020 and April 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April 2020 2021 As at the end of April 2021 counties with the highest vegetation deficit were, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, and Kilifi. The five counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in April 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of April 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Ganze, Kaloleni and Kilifi south in Kilifi County recorded the lowest VCI values with the three sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in April 2021. Generally, the negative VCI trends observed in many ASAL areas point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of April. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2021 Category C ounty Sub Counties (No) Severe Ganze, Kaloleni and Kilifi South (Kilifi) vegetation deficit (2) Moderate Kilifi (32) vegetation deficit Wajir Mogotio(Baringo) Banissa, East, LafeyNorth Garissa (Mandera),Laisaimis N. Horr(Marsabit) Isiolo East,Eldas,South West(Wajir) East(Samburu) Balambala,Daadab,Fafi,Lagdera Dujis (Garissa) North South(Isiolo) Bura Galoleni (Tana River) Mandera Mwingi central,Mingi North,Mwingi West Marsabit South(Kitui) M agarini, Malindi, Kilifi-North Rabai (Kilifi) Normal Baringo (30) vegetation Tharaka Nithi Central Elda maravine, South, North Tiaty (Baringo) greenness Turkana South, West (Mandera) East North (Turkana) West Pokot Moyale Saku(Marsabit) North Tarbaj(Wajir) Laikipia North South(Samburu) Ijara(Garissa) Kwale Garsaen(Tana River) East,North West(Laikipia) Lamu Tharaka(Tharaka Nithi) Kacheliba Sigor(West Pokot) S amburu East Rural(Kitui) Igembe Central, Igembe North Igembe South, Tigania East Tigania West(Meru) Kinango Lungalunga(Kwale) East West(Lamu) Voi(T.Taveta) Vegetation Nyeri ( 4 9)Central, Loima, South West (Turkana) greenness above Meru North Central,East, North,South West(Kajiado) normal Taita Taveta Chulga Maara(Tharaka Nithi) Narok Kapenguria Pokot south(West pokot) Makueni M anyatta, Mbeere south Runyenjes(Embu) Embu C e ntral(Kitui) Kaiti,Kibwezi East,Kibwezi West Nyeri(Kieni) Kilome,Makueni Mbooni(Makueni) Kajiado. Buuri, Central Imenti,North Imenti South Imenti(Meru) Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Town, Othaya Tetu(Nyeri)Matuga, Msambweni(Kwale)MwatateTaveta(Taita Taveta) East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, North, South West (Narok) Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently poor compared to normal period. The condition is as result of decrease in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in distances covered by livestock in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and poor conditions as shown in Table 1. The current pasture and browse condition were attributed to the little amount of rainfall received in the 2020 October to December short rain season which did not support satisfactory regeneration of pasture and browse. The delayed onset of this years March-April-May long rains and depressed rains received so far is another factor for the poor pasture and browse condition. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Kajiado Baringo Embu Kajiado Garissa Kitui. Taita Taveta Garissa Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo Kwale Isiolo Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni Kilifi. Laikipia Laikipia Marsabit Lamu Makueni Lamu Narok Marsabit Mandera Mandera Samburu West-Pokot Narok Wajir Tana River Turkana Samburu West-Pokot Tharaka Nithi Nyeri (Kieni) Tana-River Turkana Wajir Nyeri (Kieni) Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to last month due to the long trekking distances in search of pasture and water coupled with reduction in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as poor and fair as shown in Table 2. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, April 2021 Cattle Goats Kilifi Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Embu Mandera Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Kajiado Wajir Isiolo Taita Taveta Wajir Kitui Taita Taveta Turkana Kitui Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kwale Laikipia Laikipia Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Narok Narok Samburu Nyeri (Kieni) Tana-River Samburu West-Pokot Tana-River Nyeri (Kieni) West-Pokot Milk production In comparison to the long-term average; current milk production in six counties is above LTA while in eight counties which includes: Baringo, Kajiado, Isiolo, Kilifi, Laikipia, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi the current amount is below LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to water scarcity and inadequate forage. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 3.0. Table 3.0: Milk production, April 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improvi Stable Worsening LTA ng Milk Embu Garissa Baringo Baringo Embu Isiolo Productio Makueni Kitui Isiolo Makueni Garissa Kilifi n Narok Lamu Kajiado Mandera Kajiado Laikipia Taita Mandera Kilifi Samburu Kitui Lamu Taveta Samburu Laikipia Taita- Narok Marsabit West Tana Marsabit Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Pokot River Nyeri Nithi Wajir Tharaka Turkana Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable or worsening owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on a downward trend as illustrated in Table 4. However, in spite of the recorded stability in cattle price during the period under review, the prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of April in about 65 percent of the ASAL counties. Mandera and Marsabit cattle prices decreased by 27 and 5 percent as compared to the average mean as shown in Table 4. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, April 2021 or Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Baringo Kajiado Mandera Embu Baringo Lamu Prices Embu Nyeri Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Mandera Garissa Taita Turkana Kitui Kajiado Narok Isiolo Taveta Makueni Kilifi Tharaka Kilifi Marsabit Laikipia Nithi Kitui Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Taita West-Pokot Lamu Taveta Turkana Makueni Tana River West-Pokot Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of April , goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in counties such as Marsabit, Baringo and Mandera that were below the three-year average price which was attributed to the deterioration in body condition of the goats owing to poor pasture and browse. Table 5.0: Goat prices, April 2021 or Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Embu Garissa Baringo Kitui Baringo Tharaka Nithi Prices Kajiado Isiolo Mandera Kwale Embu Turkana Kilifi Lamu Marsabit Makueni Garissa Kitui Samburu Turkana Narok Isiolo Kwale Wajir Nyeri Samburu Kajiado Laikipia Tana River Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Narok Lamu Taita Taveta Mandera Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nyeri Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Wajir West Pokot March to May (MAM) long rains season are on-going across the marginal agricultural areas and most crops planted are at germination stage in poor condition due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to impact negatively on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, farmers have been advised to plant fast-maturing crops and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below-average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in April as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 6, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 16 counties recording prices that are below or close LTA. Table 6.0: Maize prices, April 2021 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Worsenin LTA LTA g Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Embu Baringo Prices Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Narok Garissa Mandera Kitui Kilifi Nyeri Isiolo Marsabit Makueni Laikipia Tana river Kajiado Taita Taveta Nyeri Lamu West Kilifi Wajir Samburu Narok Pokot Kitui Tharaka- Tana Kwale Nithi River Laikipia Turkana West- Lamu Pokot Makueni Mandera Marsabit Tharaka- Access to water for households Average distances to water for households slightly reduced in April in more counties as compared to the previous month. For instance, household distances improved in 14 counties while five counties recorded long trekking distances as compared to normal. Counties like Turkana and Isiolo recorded slight improvement as compared to previous month however the distances are still above long-term average. The slight improvement in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the light showers received during the month of April 2020 however the delayed short rains onset of the MAM season is the reason behind the long trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2021. Above LTA At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worseni LTA g ng Distance Turkana Kilifi Embu Kilifi Baringo from Embu Mandera Kitui Garissa Narok Kajiado households Isiolo Narok Isiolo West-Pokot Laikipia to main Kajiado Tana Lamu Kitui Turkana Lamu water Laikipia River Kwale Marsabit sources Nyeri Taita- Makueni Tharaka- Samburu Taveta Tana Mandera Nithi Baringo River Nyeri Garissa Tharaka Samburu Kwale Nithi Taita Marsabit Makueni Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Tana Wajir River West-Pokot Tharaka Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 8. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas slightly improved in all counties except in Kajiado and Laikipia. In addition, access to water for livestock in 14 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the short rains of October, November, December (OND) and depressed rains received during the month of April 2021 as shown in Table 8.0. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin LTA g Distance Baringo Makuen Kilifi Embu Baringo Kajiado from Embu i Kitui Garissa Isiolo Kwale livestock Garissa Tana Mandera Kilifi Narok Laikipia grazing area Isiolo River Taita Taveta Kitui Turkana Marsabit to main Kajiado Tharaka Lamu West-Pokot water Kwale Nithi Makueni sources Laikipia Wajir Mandera Lamu Nyeri Marsabit Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Tharaka Turkana Nithi West- Wajir pokot Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all but three counties ToT values are above the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is stable as compared to the previous month for instance, in Kajiado, Narok, Tana River ,Embu, Wajir, Narok and Isiolo ,the current ToT are higher than the 2016 - 2020 average for March by 46, 40, 34, 35 percent respectively. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Kwale, Nyeri and Mandera counties where the current ToT were lower than the long-term average for March by 19, 17, and 6 percent respectively. The poor terms of trade in the three counties were due to decrease in the goat prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, April 2021 or Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms Baringo Garissa Kwale Garissa Isiolo Baringo of trade Embu Taita Taveta Mandera Kitui Kilifi Embu (ToT) Isiolo Nyeri Makueni Laikipia Kajiado Kajiado Marsabit Lamu Kwale Kilifi Samburu Mandera Nyeri Kitui Narok Tharaka Laikipia Taita Nithi Lamu Taveta West-Pokot Makueni Tana Marsabit River River West- Pokot Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. The situation in 6 ASAL counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru and Nyeri is stable while the following (9) counties, Embu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Taita Taveta and Tharaka-Nithi are improving as compared to the previous month however 5 counties including Garissa,Mandera,Embu,Lamu and Taita taveta MUAC trend is above the long term avarage.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production, livestock migration, fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services and reduced household purchasing power due to the unfavorable ToT which impacted on food access resulting to inadequate dietary intake. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2021 Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Embu Isiolo Baringo Embu Isiolo Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Kajiado Garissa MUAC Lamu Kwale Laikipia Kwale Kilifi Narok Mandera Makueni Nyeri Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Taita- Marsabit Samburu Lamu Meru Tana river Taveta Meru Tana river Makueni Nyeri Turkana Narok Turkana Mandera Wajir Tharaka- Wajir Taita West Nithi West pokot Taveta pokot Kitui Tharaka- N ithi 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of April 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, three (3) counties; Mandera, Marsabit and Turkana are in the alarm drought phase, while ten (10) counties namely Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu, Tana River, Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Samburu, Laikipia and Wajir are in alert drought stage. During the month under review, six (6) counties reported a worsening trend with nine (9) counties recording a stable trend. The prevailing drought situation is mainly attributed to the delayed onset of the March to May long rains. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, April 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Nyeri Embu Kwale West Pokot Kajiado Meru Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Alert Garissa Laikipia Baringo Kilifi, Isiolo Lamu Kitui Tana River Samburu Alarm Mandera Marsabit, Turkana Recovery 3 Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th April 2021 35 - Normal vegetation greenness BARINGO County 42.00 40.09 The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal Central 45.08 40.81 vegetation greenness in the month of April. This is attributed Eldama 44.04 43.51 to some light showers from the MAM rainfall season onset. Mogotio 35.66 34.9 However, Mogotio sub county has moderate vegetation North 39.58 36.17 deficit. South 39.51 41.17 Tiaty 41.17 44.72 MANDER County 23.87 34.28 The county and its sub counties are in moderate deficit in the A Banissa 21.08 29.89 month of April. Notably, Mandera south and Mandera West M East 20.34 23.1 have Normal vegetation greenness. The onset of MAM Lafey 21.13 29.26 rainfall is already experienced in the two sub-counties. M North 23.89 32.93 M South 28.86 42.67 M West 23.61 36.88 TURKAN County 52.8 49.23 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and four of A T Central 74.84 67.75 its sub counties having recorded Above Normal vegetation T. East 40.69 37.97 greenness in the month of April. Turkana North and East T. Loima 65.62 60.58 recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T. North 40.66 36.1 T. South 55.47 55.79 T. West 59.45 56.96 MARSABI County 31.72 33.75 The county and two of its sub counties remained at moderate T Laisaimis 32.26 31 vegetation deficit band. Moyale and Saku sub-counties were Moyale 25.38 37.68 stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to small N. Horr 32.39 34.15 Saku warm humid micro-climate within Saku hills and MAM 43.32 36.44 seasonal onset in Moyale. WAJIR County 24.86 30.97 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit with W East 26.1 33.46 Wajir Eldas and Wajir West improving from Severe W. Eldas 16.47 26.08 vegetation deficit to Moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir north W. North 31.18 42.99 and Wajir Tarbaj improved from Moderate to Normal vegetation deficit. W. South 26.85 27.9 W. Tarbaj 26.17 36.17 W West 15.58 21.38 SAMBUR County 36.34 36.21 The county remained stable at Normal vegetation greenness U S East 27.87 27.91 in the month under review when compared to last month of S. North 44.53 43.82 March. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation S. West 42.58 43.79 deficit band. ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS Mar Apr 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above 2021 normal GARISSA County 28.27 29.29 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate Balambala 23.19 22.73 vegetation deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Daadab 24.8 25.25 Normal vegetation greenness band. However, Ijara Fafi 29.56 29.61 subcounty showed improvement in its VCI index within its Ijara 36.7 42.25 band. Lagdera 22.52 21.71 Dujis 21.77 23.9 ISIOLO County 23.45 23.45 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire I. North 23.25 24.72 county and its sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation I. South deficit in the month of April. 23.76 21.52 TANA County 33.28 32.1 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate RIVER Bura 25.41 25.02 vegetation condition in the month of April. Garsen remained Galole 33.19 31.92 at Normal vegetation greenness. Garsen 40.01 38.22 KAJIADO County 68.25 70.95 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties K. Central 69.8 73.43 remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions K. East 68.6 67.64 in the month of April. Kajiado county according to Kenya K. North 68.4 67.45 Met rainfall onset predictions received its onset rains on time, K. South 64.47 65.2 3rd dekad of March. K. West 70.29 75.72 LAIKIPIA County 38.8 38.69 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness L. East 34.76 41.6 with Laikipia East improving from moderate vegetation L. North 39.39 36.5 deficit in March to Normal vegetation greenness in the month of April. 39.65 41.4 L. West THARAK County 50.01 47.49 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month A Chulga 68.33 66.65 under review. The situation is stable when compared to the NITHI Maara 72.56 72.58 previous month of March. Tharaka subcounty remained at Tharaka 35.91 32.25 normal vegetation greenness. WEST County 42.85 43 The vegetation greenness stabilized for both the county and POKOT Kacheliba 38.24 36.6 its sub counties recording normal condition compared to the Kapenguri previous above normal. Pokot South improved from normal 51.68 51.73 a vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness, Pokot while Kapenguria remained in above normal vegetation 46.25 51.11 South greenness Sigor 41.78 42.47 EMBU County 68.82 65.05 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the Manyatta 81.9 79.61 month of April across all the sub-counties with vegetation Mbeere greenness above normal in all parts of the county. 59.32 58.06 Mbeere 66.41 60.2 Runyenjes 84.68 82.66 ADMINISTRATIVE Mar Apr 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2021 2021 35 - Normal vegetation greenness County 41.59 34.29 The county and most of its sub counties deteriorated to Kitui moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation 62.32 54.01 Central greenness condition. These sub-counties include; Mwingi Kitui East 44.71 37.42 North, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West and Kitui South recorded moderate deficit.. Kitui East and Kitui Rural 39.76 33.1 remained at normal vegetation deficit while Kitui central was KITUI Mwingi 28.1 24.82 stable at above normal vegetation condition. 59.16 24.82 48.08 37.76 Rural 40.05 32.51 Kitui West 64.71 51.02 County 70.39 59.42 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal Kaiti 81.45 73.55 vegetation greenness conditions. The situation is stable when MAKUEN Kibwezi the current and previous month of March are compared. 70.11 73.55 I East Kibwezi 71.43 73.55 Kilome 73.02 68.47 Makueni 61.82 52.94 Mbooni 75.49 62.73 County 52.78 53.8 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county Buuri 60.64 61.61 and its Sub-counties except for Igembe central, Igembe Central south, Tigania East and Igembe North which recorded 63.2 66.82 Imenti normal vegetation greenness. 43.4 43.31 38.79 35.39 42.35 46.67 MERU South 60.29 67.68 76.63 78.71 46.35 48.48 57.24 48.48 NYERI County 71.21 74.98 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording Kieni 61.56 68.12 above normal vegetation greenness just like the previous Mathira 78.47 75.48 month of March. Mukurwei 84.3 87.55 Town 86.18 84.46 Othaya 86.47 87.2 Tetu 83.49 83.49 County 31.2 27.05 Deterioration in vegetation condition noted across the county Ganze 26.03 17.55 and most of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation Kaloleni 27.69 19.84 deficit Ganze, Kaloleni and Kilifi South are in severe KILIFI Magarini 33.52 31.73 vegetation deficit category during the month under review. Malindi 31.19 28.56 37.54 32.61 Rabai 32.7 25.81 23.04 17.24 County 51.29 43.08 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county Kinango 45.9 36.67 which is decline when the month under review is compared KWALE Lungalung to the previous month of March. Matuga and Msambweni sub 54.78 36.67 counties remained at above normal vegetation greenness. Matuga 64.76 53.92 Msambwe 64.34 55.43 County 37.22 42.21 The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. LAMU Lamu East 34.72 42.21 38.66 40.82 TAITA County 58.03 52.06 TAVETA Mwatate 63.5 60.29 Taveta 58.36 56.86 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal Voi 55.12 46.48 in the county together with its all-sub-counties. Voi Wundanyi 71.94 65.83 subcounty remains in normal vegetation greenness. County 71.51 72.41 60.99 65.99 Emurua 82.44 80.12 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above Dikirr normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor Kilgoris 77.78 75.33 could be the timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd NAROK Narok- 59.17 61.22 dekad of March which has been evenly distributed in both space and time 69.43 73.38 80.2 77.83 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "June_2021.pdf": "June 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of May 2021 marks the cessation of the Long- Rains over most parts of the country except for the western and Coastal regions according to Kenya Metrological Department. During the month of May 2021, most ASAL counties received over 70 percent of average rainfall except Wajir, Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, Taita taveta and Tana River that received between 25-50 percent of average amounts of rainfall during the month of May as shown in Figure 1. Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1 indicates rainfall performance during the month of May as Figure 1.May Rainfall Performance percentage of long term mean(LTM). Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of June 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to be sunny and dry with occasional rainfall expected from the third week of the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near the long-term average amounts for June. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale will likely receive occasional rainfall that is expected throughout the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be below the long-term average amounts for June. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience occasional cool and cloudy (overcast skies) conditions with occasional light Figure 2.Rainfall forecast morning rainsdrizzles. The expected rainfall amount are likely to be near the long term average for the month of June while the Northeastern Kenya counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo and Southeastern lowlands counties including Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions are however likely to occur over some counties in southeastern Kenya especially those bordering the central highlands. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2020 with that in May 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of May 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2020 and May 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May 2020 2021 As at the end of May 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, Samburu and Kilifi. The six counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in May 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the six counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of May 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Rabai, Kilifi south (Kilifi County) and Lagdera (Garissa) recorded the lowest VCI values with the three sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in May 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of May 2021. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Severe (3) vegetation Lagdera (Garissa), Rabai and Kilifi South (Kilifi) deficit Moderate (6) (22) vegetation Marsabit Marsabit (Laisaimis, Saku and North Horr), Wajir (W. deficit Isiolo South, W. Eldas and W. West), Samburu East, Garissa Garissa (Balambala, Dujis, Fafi and Daadab), Isiolo (I. North Tana river and I. South), Tana River (Bura, Galole and Garsen), Samburu Laikipia North, Kitui rural, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi Magarini and Malindi) Normal (7) (41) vegetation Baringo Baringo (B. North, Eldama ravine, Mogotio, B. South, greenness Kitui B. North and Tiaty), Mandera (Banissa, M. East, Lafey, Kwale M. North, M. South and M. West), Turkana (T. East Laikipia and T. North), Marsabit (Moyale), Wajir (W. East, W. Lamu North, W. Tarbaj), Samburu (S. South and S. West), Mandera Garissa (Ijara), Laikipia (L. East, L. west), Tharaka Nithi Wajir (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Kitui (K. East, K. South, K. West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North , Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi West, Makueni), Meru (Igembe North, Tigania East), Kilifi North, Kwale (Kinango, Matuga), Lamu west and Voi. Vegetation (10) (47) greenness Kajiado Turkana (T. Central, T. South, T. West and Loima), above normal Makueni Kajiado (K. Central, K. East, K. North, K. South, K. Narok West) Tharaka Nithi (Chulga and Maara), West Pokot Taita taveta (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Embu Mbeere North, Mbeere South and Runyenjes), Kitui Nyeri (Kieni) Central, Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kilome and Meru (North) Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Turkana Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti West Pokot and Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Tharaka Nithi Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya and Tetu), Kwale (Lungalunga, Msambweni), Lamu East, Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta and Wundanyi), Narok (N. East, N. West, N. North, N. South, Kilgoris and Emurua Dikirr) Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently fair compared to normal period. The condition is as result of slight improvement in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with decrease in distances covered by livestock in search of pasture and water due to current fair water recharge. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to good conditions except in Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi, Wajir and Garissa that reported poor pasture condition as shown in Table 2.The current pasture and browse condition has slightly improved as compared to the previous month due to the fair amount of rainfall received during the month of May 2020. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, May 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Embu Lamu Kajiado Makueni Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Taita Taveta Kitui Kwale Wajir Kwale Laikipia Makueni Kilifi Laikipia Lamu Meru Mandera Mandera Narok Meru Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Samburu Turkana Samburu Tana River West Pokot Tana River Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on improving trend as compared to previous month due to improvement in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties except Garissa and Marsabit reported livestock body condition as fair to good as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, May 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Embu Baringo Embu Marsabit Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Kitui Kilifi Kitui Lamu Makueni Kwale Makueni Mandera Meru Laikipia Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Lamu Meru Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Mandera Taita Taveta Samburu Narok Tharaka Nithi Tana River Nyeri Turkana Samburu Wajir Tana River Isiolo Turkana West Pokot Wajir Milk production Milk production is stable as compared to the previous month however Fourteen (14) counties including;Baringo,Garissa,kajiado,kilifi,Kitui,Kwale,Laikipia,Marsabit,Meru,Nyeri,Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Isiolo and Wajir have milk production below LTA while six(6) counties including Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Samburu and Tana River recorded milk production above LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2021 Milk Embu Narok Baringo Embu Makueni Baringo Production Lamu Taita Taveta Garissa Kajiado Mandera Garissa Makueni West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Meru Kitui Mandera Kilifi Kwale Narok Tana River Samburu Kitui Laikipia Samburu Tharaka Nithi Tana River Kwale Lamu Taita Taveta Turkana Laikipia Marsabit Wajir Marsabit Nyeri Meru West Pokot Nyeri Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition has improved as compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5.The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of May in about 65 percent of the ASAL counties. Mandera and Turkana counties recorded cattle price decrease by 23 and 19 percent respectively as compared to the average mean as shown in Table 4. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2021 or Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Baringo Mandera Mandera Baringo Lamu Prices Embu Marsabit Nyeri Embu Makueni Garissa Taita Turkana Garissa Nyeri Kajiado Taveta Wajir Kajiado Samburu Kilifi Tana Kilifi Tana River Kitui River Kitui Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Laikipia Makueni Marasabit Meru Meru Narok Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Turkana Nithi Wajir West Pokot West Pokot Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of May , goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Wajir and Nyeri counties.The goat prices have slightly increased as compared to the previous month due to improving livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, May 2021 or Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Baringo Lamu Nyeri Garissa Baringo Kajiado Prices Embu Marsabit Wajir Kilifi Embu Kwale Garissa Tana Mandera Kitui Makueni Kajiado River Marsabit Laikipia Meru Kilifi Tharaka Samburu Lamu Tana River Kitui Nithi Turkana Narok Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana Nyeri Laikipia Isiolo Taita Taveta Makueni Wajir Mandera West Pokot March to May (MAM) long rains season were on-going across the marginal agricultural areas during the month of May and most crops planted are tusslingknee high stage with poor condition due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Kilifi and Kitui counties have reported poor crop condition.The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to impact negatively on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, farmers have been advised to plant fast-maturing crops and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below-average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in May as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 12 counties recording prices that are below or close LTA however the prices of maize are increasing and thus require close monitoring.Garissa,Nyeri,Taita taveta,Wajir and Isiolo have maize prices above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, May 2021 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin to LTA g Maize Garissa Kajiado Baringo Kajiado Baringo Tana Prices Nyeri Makueni Embu Laikipia Embu River Taita Taveta Mandera Kilifi Garissa Wajir Marsabit Kitui Kilifi Isiolo Samburu Kwale Kitui Turkana Laikipia Kwale Lamu Lamu Meru Makueni Narok Mandera Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Meru Nithi Narok West Nyeri Pokot Samburu Nithi Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 18 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA .In comparison with the previous month, there is slight improvement in reduction of distance to household water source.The slight improvement in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the rains received during the month of May 2021 however the delayed short rains onset of the MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2021. Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improvin Stable Worseni Distance Embu Baringo Kitui Baringo Garissa Lamu from Garissa Wajir Nyeri Embu Kajiado Tana households Kajiado Tharaka Kwale Kilifi river to main Kilifi Nithi Laikipia Kitui water Kwale Marsabit Makueni sources Laikipia Meru Mandera Lamu Nyeri Narok Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Mandera Turkana Tharaka Marsabit Wajir Nithi Meru West Narok Pokot West pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and improving across the counties. In addition, access to water for livestock in 14 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the March April May (MAM) long rains season as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, May 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin LTA g Distance BaringoIsi Kajiado Kitui Baringo Embu Garissa from oloIII Marsabi Samburu Kwale Kajiado Kilifi livestock Embu t Laikipia Narok Kitui grazing area GarissaI Meru Marsabit Lamu to main Kilifi Taita Meru Makueni water Kwale Taveta Nyeri Tana sources Laikipia Tharaka Samburu River Lamu Nithi Taita Taveta Tharaka Makueni Wajir Turkana Nithi Mandera West West Pokot Wajir Narok Pokot Mandera Nyeri Isiolo Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Nyeri(kieni), ToT values are above the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is stable as compared to the previous month for instance, in Kajiado, Garissa, Kilifi, Tana River, the current ToT are higher than the 2016 - 2020 average for May by 56, 40, 52, 36 percent respectively. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Nyeri(Kieni) county where the current ToT was lower than the long-term average for May by 33 percent attributed to decrease in the sheep prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2021 or Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Terms Baringo Taita Taveta Nyeri Kilifi Baringo Embu of Embu Tharaka Mandera Garissa Kajiado trade Garissa Nithi Marsabit Kitui Kwale (ToT) Kajiado Samburu Lamu Laikipia Kilifi Turkana Makueni Nyeri Kitui Wajir Meru Tharaka Kwale Narok Nithi Laikipia Taita Lamu Taveta Makueni Tana Mandera River Marsabit West Meru Pokot River Pokot Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has remained stable and on improving trend however the following counties namely; Mandera,Tana River,Marsabit Turkana and have MUAC above long term average.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2021 Baringo Embu Isiolo Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Kitui Kajiado MUAC Kwale Nyeri Kwale Kilifi Tana River Makueni Samburu Laikipia Marsabit Meru Wajir Lamu Meru Marsabit Narok West Makueni Nyeri Tharaka- pokot Mandera Baringo Turkana Nithi Kitui Taita Garissa Embu Kajiado Taveta Narok Isiolo Lamu Taita Tharaka- Samburu taveta Nithi Wajir Garissa Turkana West pokot Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of May 2021 On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, Eleven (11) counties; Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Samburu, Kitui ,Isiolo and Laikipia are in the alert drought phase and thus twelve(12) counties including; Nyeri, West Pokot, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Makueni are in Normal drought phase. During the month under review, Four (4) counties reported improving trend, Twelve (12) counties recorded stable trend while seven (7) counties reported a worsening trend. The slight improvement is as result of the rains received during the month of May 2021 Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, May 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Nyeri Baringo Makueni West Pokot Embu Kajiado Kwale Alert Lamu Laikipia Garissa Mandera Marsabit Kilifi Wajir Kitui Alarm Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th May 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness in 40.09 45.9 the month of May. This is attributed the ongoing MAM rainfall. Interestingly, 40.81 43.91 Mogotio subcounty has improved from Moderate vegetation deficit to Normal Eldama vegetation greenness. 43.51 49.44 Mogotio 34.9 38.31 North 36.17 49.57 South 41.17 46.43 Tiaty 41.17 46.0 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness in the 34.28 49.57 month of May. There was absolute improvement in the entire county form Banissa 29.89 49.93 Severe vegetation deficit to Normal vegetation greenness due to ongoing MAM M East rainfall. 23.1 35.55 Lafey 29.26 42.47 M North 32.93 52.16 M South 42.67 53.05 M West 36.88 52.96 TURKANA County The county is in improvement in VCI for the county and four of its sub counties 49.23 51.82 having recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. T Central 67.75 57.36 Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T. East 37.97 38.79 T. Loima 60.58 61.91 T. North 36.1 41.86 T. South 55.79 58.83 T. West 56.96 62.52 MARSABIT County The county and two of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit 33.75 32.57 band. Moyale and Saku sub-counties were stable at normal vegetation Laisaimis 31 25.01 greenness. This is due to small warm humid micro-climate within Saku hills and MAM seasonal onset in Moyale. Moyale 37.68 48.59 N. Horr 34.15 32.79 36.44 32.01 WAJIR County The county improved to Normal vegetation greenness in the month of May from 30.97 36.66 the previous month of April. W East 33.46 40.39 W. Eldas 26.08 32.13 W. North 42.99 49.81 W. South 27.9 30.5 W. Tarbaj 36.17 45.5 W West 21.38 29.86 SAMBURU County The county remained stable at Normal vegetation greenness in the month under 36.21 33.83 review when compared to last month of April. Samburu East remained in S East 27.91 27.57 Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. North 43.82 38.93 S. West 43.79 41.81 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band 29.29 32.02 with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal vegetation greenness band. Balambala 22.73 23.56 However, Lagdera subcounty deteriorated to severe vegetation deficit. Daadab 25.25 28.78 29.61 33.41 Ijara 42.25 49.93 Lagdera 21.71 15.89 Dujis 23.9 24.98 ISIOLO County Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county and its sub- 23.45 22.67 counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit in the month of May. I. North 24.72 24.45 I. South 21.52 20.00 TANA RIVER County The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in 32.1 29.94 the month of May. Garsen worsened Moderate vegetation condition. 25.02 28.89 Galole 31.92 24.34 Garsen 38.22 34.33 KAJIADO County Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above 70.95 63.43 normal vegetation greenness conditions in the month of May. 73.43 62.17 K. Central 67.64 62.59 K. East 67.45 61.66 K. North 65.2 57.22 K. South 75.72 69.58 K. West LAIKIPIA County The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia 38.69 36.48 North declining from Normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation 41.6 45.03 deficit in April to month of May. L. East 36.5 32.31 L. North 41.4 40.16 L. West THARAKA County The county is in Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. 47.49 57.05 NITHI The situation is stable when compared to the previous month of April. Tharaka 66.65 66.97 subcounty remained at normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 72.58 69.81 Maara 32.25 49.31 WEST POKOT County The vegetation greenness deteriorated for both the county and its sub counties 43 50.93 recording normal condition compared to the previous above normal. Pokot 36.6 44.2 South improved from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation Kacheliba greenness. 51.73 58.28 Kapenguria 51.11 64.22 Pokot South 42.47 49.11 Sigor EMBU County The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of April 65.05 64.33 across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts 79.61 64.57 of the county. Manyatta 58.06 65.56 Mbeere North 60.2 61.9 Mbeere South Runyenjes 82.66 70.42 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 28th at 30th (3- Apr 2021 May 2021 month) 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit County The county and most of its sub counties improved to normal vegetation 34.29 39.49 greenness condition from moderate vegetation deficit in the previous month of 54.01 51.04 April. Kitui Central 37.42 42.87 Kitui East Mwingi 33.1 38.22 KITUI 24.82 36.51 Mwingi North 24.82 44.04 Mwingi West 37.76 30.43 Kitui Rural Kitui South 32.51 38.6 64.71 42.68 Kitui West County The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness 59.42 51.44 conditions. The situation is stable when the current and previous month of April 73.55 71.55 and current month of May are compared. Kaiti 73.55 51.4 Kibwezi East 73.55 42.32 Kibwezi West MAKUENI 68.47 68.13 Kilome Makueni 52.94 43.85 62.73 60.63 Mbooni County The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub- 53.8 56.62 counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south Tigania East and Igembe North 61.61 57.08 which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Buuri MERU 66.82 65.95 Central Imenti Igembe 43.31 57.91 35.39 37.73 Igembe North Igembe South 46.67 66.37 67.68 70.22 North Imenti 78.71 72.3 South Imenti 48.48 46.76 Tigania East 48.48 57.84 Tigania West County The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal 74.98 68.99 vegetation greenness just like the previous month of April. 68.12 63.64 Kieni 75.48 68.72 Mathira 87.55 75.43 Mukurweini NYERI 84.46 78.56 Othaya 87.2 81.71 83.49 74.77 County Constancy in vegetation condition noted across the county and most of its sub 27.05 27.2 counties recording moderate vegetation deficit Ganze and Kaloleni improved 17.55 21.49 from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. However, Rabai Ganze and Kilifi south sub-counties worsened. 19.84 21.55 Kaloleni 31.73 29.89 Magarini KILIFI 28.56 28.85 Malindi 32.61 40.11 Kilifi-North Rabai 25.81 17.21 Kilifi-South 17.24 10.86 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is an 43.08 42.55 improvement when the month under review is compared to the previous month 36.67 37.17 of April. Kinango KWALE 36.67 53.4 Lungalunga Matuga 53.92 43.63 55.43 51.81 Msambweni County The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. Lamu east is in 42.21 45.31 above normal vegetation greenness. LAMU Lamu East 42.21 51.19 40.82 41.91 Lamu West VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS at 28th at 30th 50 Vegetation greenness above Apr 2021 May 2021 normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness County Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the county 52.06 50.42 together with its all-sub-counties. Voi subcounty remains in normal vegetation 60.29 61.12 greenness. Mwatate 56.86 58.76 Taveta TAITA TAVETA 46.48 42.31 Wundanyi 65.83 67.91 72.41 67.3 65.99 64.52 Narok-East 80.12 70.98 Emurua Dikirr The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the timely onset of the long rains 75.33 64.15 Kilgoris of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March which has been evenly distributed in both NAROK space and time 61.22 61.21 Narok-North Narok-South 73.38 71.71 77.83 68.68 Narok-West Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "July_2021.pdf": "July 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of June 2021 marked the beginning of the cold season with several parts of ASAL counties remaining dry. According to metrological department, most of ASAL counties received less than 50 percent of average rainfall with most parts of Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Tana River and Turkana receiving less than 25 percent of average amounts of rainfall during the month of June as shown in Figure 1a.The coastal strip received over 75 percent of average amounts. Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1a indicates rainfall Figure 1 a.June Rainfall Performance performance during the month of May as percentage of long term mean (LTM). Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of July 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to receive occasional rainfall during the beginning of the month and near average rainfall towards the end of the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near to above the long term average for July. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale will likely receive occasional rainfall. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near the long-term average amounts for July. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience occasional Figure 1b.Rainfall forecast cool and cloudy (overcast skies) conditions with occasional rainsdrizzles while the Northeastern Kenya counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo and Southeastern lowlands counties including Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions are however likely to occur over some counties in southeastern Kenya especially those bordering the highlands east of the rift valley. Figure 2 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in June 2020 with that in June 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of June 2020. Figure 2: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2020 and June 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June 2020 2021 As at the end of June 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, Wajir and Kilifi.The six counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit except Isiolo that is in severe vegetation deficit band implying that the VCI values recorded in June 2021 were below normal indicating that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the six counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of June 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level; Kilifi South, Rabai (Kilifi), Isiolo North and Isiolo South (Isiolo County) and Lagdera (Garissa) recorded the lowest VCI values with Kilifi two sub counties in extreme vegetation deficit band. Lagdera (Garissa) and Isiolo (Isiolo North and South) are in severe vegetation deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in June 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of June 2021.The vegetation condition has deteriorated as compared to the previous month of May 2021. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) Rabai and Kilifi South (Kilifi) Severe vegetation (1) (3) deficit Isiolo Lagdera (Garissa), Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Moderate (5) (21) vegetation deficit Marsabit Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Dadaab, Township) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini, Malindi) Wajir Kitui (Kitui Rural) Kwale (Kinango) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu Garissa (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir south) Tana river Kilifi Normal vegetation (6) (35) greenness Kitui, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Wajir (Tarbaj Wajir-West Wajir-North Turkana (Turkana North, Turkana East) Meru Lamu, Kwale, Laikipia (Tigania East, Igembe North) Taita taveta (Taveta, Voi) Marsabit (Moyale North Horr Saku) Mandera (Mandera South Mandera West, Lafey Mandera East) Makueni (Makueni, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West) Lamu (Lamu West) Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia-West) Kwale (Lungalunga Matuga, Msambweni) Kitui (Kitui South, Kitui West, Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Embu (Manyatta) Baringo (Mogotio) Vegetation (11) (54) greenness above Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu normal Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, (Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Garissa (Ijara) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-North, Kajiado-South), Kajiado-West Kitui (Kitui-Central) West Pokot, Mandera Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West,) Makueni (Kilome, Mbooni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, South Imenti South Imenti, Tigania West) Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) Makueni (Kaiti) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently fair and on declining trend as compared to normal period. The condition is as result of decline in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality and increase in distances covered by livestock in search of pasture and water due to drying open water sources. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally fair to poor condition with Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Tana river, Laikipia and Kitui reporting poor pasture condition as shown in Table 2.The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month due to the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, June 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Marsabit Lamu Garissa Baringo Kajiado kwale Garissa Kajiado Taita Taveta Isiolo Embu Laikipia Isiolo Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Lamu Kitui Makueni Kitui Narok Laikipia Mandera Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Meru Kwale Mandera Tharaka Nithi Wajir Narok Meru Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on worsening trend as compared to previous month due to deterioration in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties except Lamu and Wajir reported livestock body condition as fair to good as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, June 2021 Cattle Goats Lamu Baringo Kwale Kajiado Lamu Baringo Marsabit Kajiado Embu Marsabit Makueni Wajir Embu Makueni Garissa Meru Garissa Meru Isiolo Taita Taveta Isiolo Taita Taveta Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kitui Kitui Kwale Laikipia Laikipia Mandera Mandera Narok Narok Tana River Tana River Wajir West Pokot Milk production Milk production is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as 11 counties including Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, and Tana river are on worsening trend while twelve (12) counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Kwale have milk production below LTA. The following seven (7) counties including Embu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Tana River and West Pokot recorded milk production above LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, June 2021 Milk Embu Lamu Baringo Narok Baringo Embu Production Makueni Mandera Garissa Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Garissa Narok Samburu Isiolo Turkana Laikipia Kajiado Nyeri Wajir Kajiado West Pokot Lamu Kilifi Taita Taveta Kilifi Makueni Kitui Tana River Kitui Mandera Marsabit West Pokot Laikipia Wajir Meru Marsabit Kwale Nyeri Meru Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable as compared to the previous month and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The cattle prices in Mandera, Nyeri, Turkana and Marsabit are below due to deteriorating body condition in those particular counties. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of June in about 65 percent of the ASAL counties as shown in Table 4. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, June 2021 Cattle Baringo Embu Laikipia Mandera Lamu Baringo Embu Kilifi Prices Garissa Isiolo Taita Taveta Nyeri Narok Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kajiado Kilifi Wajir Turkana Tana River Kajiado Turkana Kitui Lamu Marsabit Laikipia Meru Narok Makueni Meru Samburu Mandera Nyeri Makueni Samburu Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of May , goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Marsabit,Makueni and Nyeri counties.The goat prices have remained stable as compared to the previous month due to fair state of livestock body condition however they remain low as compared to normal season. Table 6.0: Goat prices, June 2021 Goat Prices Baringo Garissa Makueni Tana River Baringo Embu Kitui Embu Isiolo Nyeri Garissa Isiolo Makueni Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Kilifi Lamu Laikipia Lamu Laikipia Mandera Mandera Meru Narok Meru Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Wajir Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale West Pokot Turkana Kwale March to May (MAM) long rains season ended across the marginal agricultural areas and thus Kilifi,Makueni,Nyeri(Kieni),Taita taveta and Kwale reported fair crop condition as compared to good in normal season however Kitui reported that most of the crops withered due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Crops in marginal agricultural counties were at grain filling and harvesting stage. Farmers are expecting below average crop production due to depressed rains received. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in June as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 12 counties recording prices that are below LTA however the prices of maize are increasing and thus require close monitoring.Garissa,Mandera,Marsabit ,Taita taveta,Wajir have maize prices above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, June 2021 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Baringo Embu Mandera Kajiado Embu Meru Garissa Isiolo Taita Taveta Lamu Kilifi Wajir Kilifi Kitui Wajir Makueni Kitui West Pokot Laikipia Lamu Marsabit Narok Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Meru Mandera Nyeri Turkana Samburu Samburu Tharaka Nithi Tana river West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana Kwale Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 20 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is increase in distance to household water source as result of the drying water sources.The late onset of the MAM rains coupled with poor performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, June 2021. Distance from Baringo Embu Kitui Baringo Garissa Embu Isiolo households to main Garissa Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Lamu Narok Kajiado Kilifi water sources Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Tana River Taita Taveta Kitui Laikipia Laikipia Lamu West Pokot Makueni Meru Makueni Meru Turkana Mandera Nyeri Mandera Narok Kwale Samburu Nyeri Wajir Tharaka Nithi Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Marsabit Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is on worsening trend across the counties. In addition, access to water for livestock in 17 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the March April May (MAM) long rains season as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, June 2021 Distance from Baringo Embu Mandera Kitui Narok Baringo Embu Isiolo livestock grazing Garissa Isiolo Tana River Meru Garissa Kajiado Kitui area to main water Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Laikipia Meru sources Laikipia Lamu Marsabit Lamu Makueni Nyeri Makueni Narok Mandera Samburu Samburu Nyeri West Pokot Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Turkana Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi Turkana Marsabit Kwale Kwale Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Mandera and Nyeri(kieni),ToT values are above the long- term average (LTA). The TOT is however on worsening trend as compared to the previous month with ten(10) counties reporting worsening trend. The worsening trend is as result of increasing maize prices in relation to stable goat prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, June 2021 Terms of Baringo Embu Garissa Mandera Baringo Embu Kajiado trade Isiolo Kajiado Meru Nyeri Garissa Kilifi (ToT) Kilifi Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Lamu Laikipia Lamu Wajir Narok Makueni Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Mandera Narok Taita Taveta Meru Samburu Tana River Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot West Pokot Wajir Marsabit Turkana Turkana Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the MUAC is on worsening trend with eight(8) counties including kajiado,Laikipia,Lamu,Makueni,Nyeri,Samburu,Tana River and Wajir recording worsening trend.The negative trend in malnutrition of the eight(8)counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2021 Embu Kilifi Baringo Baringo Embu Kajiado Isiolo Kwale Garissa Garissa Isiolo Laikipia MUAC Lamu Laikipia Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Lamu Mandera Makueni Kitui Kwale Marsabit Makueni Marsabit Meru Narok Mandera Meru Nyeri Tana River Samburu Nyeri Narok Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana West Pokot Turkana Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of June 2021.On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, Twelve (12) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Samburu, Kitui, Lamu, Isiolo and Laikipia are in the alert drought phase while Eleven (11) counties reported Normal drought phase as at July. During the month under review, Fourteen (14) counties reported worsening trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while one county reported an improvement .The worsening trend across most of ASAL counties is as result of the poor rains received during the March April May (MAM) 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, June 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Kajiado Embu Meru Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Kwale Tharaka Nithi Alert Lamu Kitui Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Samburu Wajir Alarm Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Activation of satellite livestock markets and commercial destocking to salvage pastoralists against imminent losses with expected progression of the long dry spell. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th June 2021 BARINGO County 45.9 55.49 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness Central 43.91 54.89 in the month of June except Mogotio which was at normal greenness. This is attributed the late cessation of MAM rainfall. Eldama 49.44 58.38 Mogotio 38.31 47.3 North 49.57 60.67 South 46.43 54.27 Tiaty 46.0 55.8 MANDERA County 49.57 50.26 The county and its sub counties are in Normal to above normal vegetation greenness Banissa 49.93 55.43 in the month of June which is stable trend. M East 35.55 43.98 Lafey 42.47 46.69 M North 52.16 58.28 M South 53.05 45.21 M West 52.96 48.94 TURKANA County 51.82 59.31 The county is in improvement in VCI for the county and four of its sub counties T Central 57.36 63.5 having recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of June. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T. East 38.79 46.17 T. Loima 61.91 72.75 T. North 41.86 48.07 T. South 58.83 66.5 T. West 62.52 69.97 MARSABIT County 32.57 32.97 The county and one of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit Laisaimis 25.01 24.94 band. Moyale was stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to MAM seasonal onset in Moyale. North Horr and Saku wards improved from moderate Moyale 48.59 41.93 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. N. Horr 32.79 35.09 Saku 32.01 35.25 WAJIR County 36.66 31.75 The situation worsens in the county from normal vegetation greenness to moderate W East 40.39 34.75 vegetation deficit. Wajir North and Tarbaj maintained normal vegetation greenness. W.Eldas 32.13 26.48 W. North 49.81 42.5 W. South 30.5 26.8 W.Tarbaj 45.5 40 W West 29.86 26.24 SAMBURU County 33.83 38.72 The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to Normal vegetation S East 27.57 28.66 greenness in the month under review when compared to the previous month of May. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. North 38.93 48.33 S. West 41.81 46.59 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 Color VCI values Drought Category as at 30th month (3-month) May 2021 as at 27th 50 Vegetation greenness above normal June 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness GARISSA County 32.02 29.37 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Balambala 23.56 22.92 Ijara sub county improving from Normal vegetation greenness to above normal greenness band. However, Lagdera subcounty also remained at severe vegetation Daadab 28.78 24.98 deficit. Fafi 33.41 29.43 Ijara 49.93 50.58 Lagdera 15.89 12.17 Dujis 24.98 22.72 ISIOLO County 22.67 18.72 The entire county condition deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe I. North 24.45 19.77 vegetation deficit following poor performance and early cessation of the MAM rains. I. South 20.00 17.13 TANA County 29.94 27.48 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the RIVER Bura 28.89 27.71 month of June. Galole 24.34 20.74 Garsen 34.33 31.49 KAJIADO County 63.43 58.69 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal K. Central 62.17 53.39 vegetation greenness conditions in the month of June. K. East 62.59 59.71 K. North 61.66 55.75 K. South 57.22 53.85 K. West 69.58 65.22 LAIKIPIA County 36.48 39.63 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia North at L. East 45.03 48.35 moderate vegetation deficit. L. North 32.31 34.74 L. West 40.16 44.57 THARAKA County 57.05 62.68 The county is in Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. The NITHI Chulga 66.97 65.65 situation is stable when compared to the previous month of May. Tharaka sub- county improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Maara 69.81 64 Tharaka 49.31 61.13 WEST County 50.93 56.87 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the county and all the sub-counties POKOT Kacheliba 44.2 53.22 with Kacheliba and Sigor improving from normal to above normal vegetation Kapenguria 58.28 59.5 Pokot South 64.22 70.36 Sigor 49.11 53.32 EMBU County 64.33 57.06 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of June across Manyatta 64.57 48.55 most of the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal. Manyatta sub- county deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Mbeere North 65.56 64.02 Mbeere South 61.9 55.41 Runyenjes 70.42 57.16 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT KITUI County 39.49 40.35 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at Above normal, normal vegetation greenness and moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 51.04 52.66 Kitui East 42.87 41.84 Mwingi Central 38.22 35.16 Mwingi North 36.51 38.66 Mwingi West 44.04 43.11 Kitui Rural 30.43 27.87 Kitui South 38.6 40.77 42.68 46.83 Kitui West County 51.44 53.03 The county and most of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation MAKUENI Kaiti 71.55 63.88 greenness conditions. The situation is stable for most parts when compared to the previous month of May. Kibwezi East worsened from above normal to normal Kibwezi East 51.4 48.3 vegetation greenness. Kibwezi West 42.32 48.83 Kilome 68.13 67.72 Makueni 43.85 48.33 Mbooni 60.63 63.73 County 56.62 55.81 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub-counties MERU Buuri 57.08 56.9 except for Igembe North and Tigania East which recorded normal vegetation Central Imenti 65.95 56.37 Igembe Central 57.91 66.04 Igembe North 37.73 40.98 Igembe South 66.37 70.47 North Imenti 70.22 57.12 South Imenti 72.3 68.27 Tigania East 46.76 39.28 Tigania West 57.84 53.22 County 68.99 65.65 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal vegetation Kieni 63.64 63.9 greenness just like the previous month of May. Mathira 68.72 59.21 Mukurweini 75.43 51.72 NYERI Town 78.56 77.51 Othaya 81.71 79.14 Tetu 74.77 63.77 KILIFI County 27.2 24.93 Constancy in vegetation condition noted across the county and most of its sub Ganze 21.49 22.94 counties recording moderate vegetation deficit. Kilifi North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. However, Rabai and Kilifi south sub-counties Kaloleni 21.55 21.6 worsened from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. Magarini 29.89 25.84 Malindi 28.85 24.94 Kilifi-North 40.11 42.32 Rabai 17.21 9.14 Kilifi-South 10.86 4.53 KWALE County 42.55 38.57 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is stable when Kinango 37.17 34.22 the month under review is compared to the previous month of May except Kinango which worsened from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Lungalunga 53.4 48.88 Matuga 43.63 36.06 Msambweni 51.81 47.42 County 45.31 43.66 The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. Lamu east is in above Lamu East 51.19 51.66 normal vegetation greenness. Lamu West 41.91 39.04 TAITA County 50.42 46.28 Decrease in the vegetation greenness condition from above normal to normal TAVETA Mwatate 61.12 57.24 vegetation greenness. Voi sub-county remains in normal vegetation greenness while the county worsened from above normal to normal greenness. Taveta 58.76 52.83 Voi 42.31 38.93 Wundanyi 67.91 62.86 County 67.3 65.09 NAROK Narok-East 64.52 65.23 Emurua Dikirr 70.98 66.12 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation Kilgoris 64.15 56.73 greenness band. The attributing factor is good MAM seasonal rainfall performance Narok-North 61.21 63.82 in this region. Narok-South 71.71 71 Narok-West 68.68 64.18 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "August_2021.pdf": "AUGUST 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance During the month of August, near to below average rainfall was recorded over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley and parts of Northwestern Kenya including West Pokot, Turkana, Baringo and Narok, Samburu and Laikipia counties. Dry weather conditions were experienced over the Southeastern lowlands, Northeastern and most of the Northwestern Kenya. The mean temperatures were above normal over most parts of the Arid and Semi-Arid counties of Kenya (ASALS). During the month of August 2021, most Figure 1.August Rainfall Performance ASAL counties that received between 6- 20mm of rainfall include; Taita Taveta, Figure 1. Rainfall Performance, August 2021 Kwale, Tana River, Kajiado, Isiolo, Lamu and some part of Garissa, Marsabit, Kitui, Meru and Tharaka Nithi. Most of Arid counties that received TRACE rainfall amounts (2-5mm1mm) includes; Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Kitui and Makueni. Figure 1 indicates spatial rainfall performance during the month of August as rainfall totals. Rainfall Forecast for September According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), It is expected that several parts of the country will be generally dry for most of the month of September. Almost all 23 ASAL counties are likely to be sunny and dry with occasional showers expected in the coastal strip. Near-Average to Above-Average rainfall is expected in some parts of Turkana, Kajiado, Narok and Laikipia. West Pokot and Baringo counties will be within Near-Average to Above- Average rainfall category. The expected total rainfall is likely to be below the long-term average amounts for September. Figure 2.Rainfall forecast, September 2021 Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2020 with that in August 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of August 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2020 and August 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August 2020 August 2021 As at the end of August 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River and Wajir. The eight (8) counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in August 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of August 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the nine (9) sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in MAM season 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of August 2021. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe (9) vegetation Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) deficit Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) Moderate (8) (29) vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo deficit Kilifi, Kwale, South) Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado-North) Kilifi (Magarini, Lamu, Samburu, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Tana River, Wajir Kitui Rural) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu West) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale) Samburu (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Normal (10) (43) vegetation Embu, Kajiado, Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) greenness Kitui, Laikipia, Kajiado (Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Kitui Mandera, (Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Marsabit, Meru, Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera Nyeri, Taita East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (North Horr, Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu west) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tharaka Nithi (Maara, Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Vegetation (5) (32) greenness Baringo, Baringo (Baringo Central, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Above Makueni, Narok, Tiaty) Kajiado (Kajiado-West) Kitui (Kitui Central) Laikipia normal Turkana, West (Laikipia West) Lamu (Lamu East,) Makueni (Kibwezi West, Kilome, Mbooni) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka,) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West- Pokot South, Sigor) Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2021 Livestock production The current livestock body condition is worsening compared to previous month of July. However, pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor and fair to poor conditions except in Lamu, Narok and West Pokot that reported good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is deteriorating as compared to the previous month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Baringo Lamu Garissa Baringo Lamu Isiolo Embu Isiolo Embu Narok Kajiado Marsabit Kilifi Kajiado West Pokot Kilifi Narok Mandera Kitui Taita Taveta Meru Kwale Tana River Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Tana River Makueni Wajir Taita Taveta Nyeri Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month. However, pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Isiolo Embu Wajir Embu Taita Taveta Mandera Kajiado Garissa Tana River Samburu Kilifi Kilifi Turkana Kitui Kitui Wajir Kwale Kwale Laikipia Lamu Lamu Laikipia Makueni Makueni Marsabit Marsabit Meru Mandera Narok Meru Nyeri Narok Tana River Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Samburu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Milk production Milk production in Baringo, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot reported an improving trend whereas Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Turkana and Wajir indicated a worsening trend when then month of August is compared with previous month of July. Embu Lamu, Makueni, Narok Samburu and West Pokot were above LTA while the Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir are below LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2021 Milk Embu Kwale Baringo Baringo Garissa Embu Production Lamu Taita Garissa Kwale Taita Isiolo Makueni Taveta Isiolo Mandera Taveta Kajiado Narok Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Kilifi Samburu Kilifi Meru Kitui West Kitui Samburu Laikipia Pokot Laikipia Tharaka Lamu Mandera Nithi Makueni Marsabit West Pokot Narok Meru Nyeri Nyeri Turkana Tana River Wajir Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of August in about 60 percent of the ASAL counties. In eight out of the 23 ASAL counties the cattle prices are worsening with majority at stable and no single county displaying improvement as shown in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2021 Cattle Baringo Meru Kilifi Baringo Kajiado Prices Isiolo Samburu Mandera Isiolo Kitui Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Kilifi Lamu Kitui Garissa Marsabit Makueni Samburu Lamu Turkana Mandera Tana River Makueni Embu Meru Wajir Narok Narok Embu Taita Nyeri Garissa Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka West Pokot Nithi Laikipia Wajir Marsabit West Pokot Turkana Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of August, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Meru, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Nyeri counties falling in below LTA category. The goat prices are stable but worsening as compared to the previous month due to deteriorating in livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2021 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Kajiado Baringo Meru Baringo Isiolo Prices Kilifi Isiolo Nyeri Kilifi Kajiado Lamu Kitui Wajir Kitui Meru Laikipia Makueni Turkana Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Narok Mandera Garissa Makueni Wajir Taita Samburu Marsabit Mandera Embu Taveta Embu Narok Garissa Tana River Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Taita Lamu Nithi Taveta Nyeri West Tana River Pokot West Pokot March to May (MAM) long rains season were on-going across the marginal agricultural areas during the month of May and minimal rain showers on June, most crops planted are struggling with poor condition due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir have reported poor crop condition. The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to have a negative impact on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, the farmers have been advocated to practice planting of fast maturing seedlings and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below-average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in August as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are stable in 18 counties,3 Counties Nyeri, Tharakaha ve shown a worsening trend .Garissa ,Isiolo, Kajiado ,Mandera ,Marsabit, Nyeri and Taita Taveta recorded prices that are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2021 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Nyeri Baringo Garissa Prices Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Tharaka Embu Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Kitui Nithi Kajiado Mandera Lamu Meru Wajir Kilifi Marsabit Makueni Tana River Nyeri Narok Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir Laikipia Turkana Lamu West Pokot Makueni Narok Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains. The consecutive poorly performed long rains and short rains seasons of 2020 and 21 respectively is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2021. Distance Baringo Isiolo Baringo Garissa Embu from Embu Kitui Kwale Kilifi Isiolo household Garissa Makueni Kitui Kajiado s to main Kajiado Narok Laikipia Mandera water Kilifi Tana River Lamu Meru sources Kwale Tharaka Nithi Makueni Narok Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Lamu Samburu Taita Taveta Mandera Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Meru Turkana Nyeri Wajir Samburu West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2021 Distance Baringo Kitui Kajiado Baringo Embu from Embu Narok Kilifi Garissa Kajiado livestock Garissa Wajir Tana River Isiolo Kitui grazing area Isiolo West Tharaka Kilifi Kwale to main Kwale Pokot Nithi Laikipia Lamu water Laikipia Meru Makueni sources Lamu Narok Mandera Makueni Tana River Marsabit Mandera Tharaka Nyeri Marsabit Nithi Samburu Meru West Pokot Taita Nyeri Taveta Samburu Turkana Taita Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Garissa, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri and Turkana, ToT values are above and at the long-term average (LTA). The TOT maintains a stable trend as to the previous month. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Nyeri (Kieni) county where the current ToT was lower than the long-term average for August by 40 percent attributed to decrease in the sheep prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, August 2021 Terms of Kajiado Baringo Garissa West- Baringo Garissa trade (ToT) Kilifi Embu Marsabit Pokot Embu Kajiado Lamu Isiolo Meru Isiolo Lamu Makueni Kitui Nyeri Kilifi Mandera Narok Kwale Turkana Kitui Marsabit Tana- Laikipia Kwale Meru River Mandera Laikipia Tana-River Tharaka- Samburu Makueni Tharaka- Nithi Taita- Narok Nithi Taveta Nyeri Wajir Wajir Samburu West- Taita- Pokot Taveta Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has been on a visible worsening trend, however the following counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Narok, Mandera, Tana River, Marsabit, Samburu and Nyeri have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2021 Baringo Isiolo Kajiado West Pokot Isiolo Baringo Narok Kilifi Kitui Embu Kilifi Kajiado MUAC Mandera Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Kitui Nyeri Makueni West Pokot Lamu Marsabit Samburu Meru Turkana Makueni Mandera Tana River Taita Meru Narok Marsabit Taveta Taita Taveta Nyeri Garissa Wajir Tharaka- Samburu Embu Nithi Tana River Laikipia Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of August 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties; Embu (Mbeere), Meru-North, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana-River, and Turkana are in the alert drought phase and thus seven (7) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, West- Pokot, Kajiado, Nyeri (Kieni), and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa and Mandera are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to be the improving trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of the minimal orand NO rains received during the month of August. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Kajiado Narok Nyeri(Kieni) Tharaka-Nithi Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Alert Embu(Mbeere) Kilifi Meru-North Kitui Tana-River Alarm Marsabit Isiolo Wajir Mandera Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th August 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS as at 26th as at 30th (3- BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal 54.31 58.42 vegetation greenness in the month of August except Eldama which 60.01 60.94 was at normal greenness. Eldama 52.35 42.28 Mogotio 45.08 56.2 62.51 65.12 53.82 61.2 Tiaty 53.57 58.54 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness 40.9 39.3 in the month of August which is a stable trend except Mandera Banissa 44.29 40.8 South which worsened to a moderate vegetation deficit. The M East current month VCI trend is similar to the previous month of July. 42.61 39.49 Lafey 41.94 41.53 M North 48.65 44.43 M South 36.1 34.22 M West 34.45 36.45 TURKANA County There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties 57.8 53.23 recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of T Central 71.3 78.18 August. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation T. East greenness. 46.86 43.08 T. Loima 72.88 61.9 T. North 44.86 43.38 T. South 68.13 57.39 T. West 62.56 56.15 MARSABIT County The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal 34.64 38.82 vegetation greenness except for Moyale and Laisamis which Laisaimis 29.96 34.31 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Moyale 31.09 34.34 N. Horr 37.72 41.97 42.91 48.44 WAJIR County The situation deteriorated in the county at moderate vegetation 27.22 23.78 deficit. Wajir South and West worsened from moderate vegetation W East 29.27 23.68 deficit to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. W. Eldas 25.25 28.52 W. North 30.76 34.27 W. South 24.23 16.92 W. Tarbaj 33.86 30.35 W West 24.95 19.36 SAMBURU County Worsening in vegetation from normal vegetation greenness in the 38.69 34.59 previous month of July to Moderate vegetation deficit in the month S East 28.61 26.54 under review. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. North 49.03 41.21 S. West 44.04 44.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation 25.91 21.16 deficit band with Daadab and Ijara sub-county worsening from Balambala 23.42 21.17 moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit band and from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit Daadab 20.85 15.29 respectively. 24.85 21.15 Ijara 43.02 29.44 Lagdera 14.24 17.28 Dujis 23.79 20.41 ISIOLO County There was improvement in the entire countys vegetation condition 18.97 23.09 from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in I. North 19.76 23.94 comparison to the previous month of July. I. South 17.76 21.79 TANA County The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation 27.5 29.23 RIVER condition in the month of August. 28.08 28.36 Galole 22.58 25.66 Garsen 30.09 32.21 KAJIADO County Stable trend noted across the county with sub counties with a 47.38 45.68 worsening trend in Kajiado Central sub-county from normal 39.23 32.92 vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in August. K. Central 43.33 41.26 K. East 45.34 33.6 K. North 44.21 48.55 K. South 56.34 52.74 K. West LAIKIPIA County The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in comparison 38.05 37.62 to the previous months. However, an improvement was noted in 44.73 36.94 Laikipia West whose value shifted from Normal vegetation L. East greenness to Above Normal. 33.18 30.25 L. North 43.95 51.75 L. West THARAKA County The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under 57.62 45.25 NITHI review when compared to Above Normal category in the previous 61.51 50.79 month of July. Chulga 60.97 46.02 Maara 55.08 42.92 WEST County The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- 51.38 53.13 POKOT counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the 49.12 50.65 previous month. Kacheliba 51 54.5 Kapenguria 63.51 61.87 48.62 51.31 Sigor EMBU County The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month 46.56 39.61 of August across most of the sub-counties with Normal vegetation 42.51 40.01 Manyatta greenness. Mbeere North and Runyenjes sub-counties deteriorated Mbeere from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. 53.27 44.86 Mbeere 42.21 35.46 Runyenjes 52.28 42.78 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month month values as at 26h as at 30th (3- County The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at normal 38.38 41.68 vegetation greenness. Kitui central improved from Normal to 46.37 55.31 Above normal vegetation greenness, Kitui Rural from severe to Kitui Central moderate vegetation deficit. However, Mwingi West worsened 40.18 45.7 Kitui East from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. 32.78 33.9 33.77 27.38 KITUI North 35.43 32.64 18.5 27.82 Kitui Rural 41.41 48.56 Kitui South 40.64 41.97 Kitui West County The county and three other of its sub counties recorded above 44.07 50.46 normal vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend compared 37.9 46.63 to July except for Kilome which remained stable Kaiti MAKUENI Kibwezi 43.24 48.01 Kibwezi 45.23 51.32 50.89 56.77 Kilome 39.66 46.16 47.38 57.5 Mbooni County The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and 3 others 51.44 44.27 of its Sub-counties except for Igembe Central, Igembe South and 53.76 44.15 North Imenti which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 51.64 41.85 Imenti 60.23 51.11 40.35 38.06 62.33 53.55 MERU South 51.43 52.32 North Imenti 64.16 36.9 South Imenti 34.12 39.66 Tigania East Tigania 47.09 47.26 County The county, Town and Othaya sub-counties worsened from above 58.03 47.7 normal to above normal vegetation greenness when compared with 60.23 52.8 the previous month of July, Kieni, Mathira, and Tetu remained Kieni stable in their VCI values. 49.32 42.09 Mathira 39.8 52.9 Mukurweini NYERI 64.9 37.05 64.44 37.32 Othaya 48.76 45.06 County The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable and 22.7 21.19 most of its sub counties recording severe vegetation deficit. Rabai 21.8 17.24 and Kilifi south sub-counties improved from extreme to severe Ganze vegetation deficit and from extreme to moderate vegetation deficit 17.95 15.23 respectively. Kaloleni 22.66 21.53 Magarini 24.84 19.41 KILIFI Malindi 45.34 39.54 Kilifi-North 2.7 14.39 Rabai Kilifi-South 2.06 26.18 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit, with Kinango 30.75 21.04 KWALE County sub-county recording severe vegetation deficit, a deterioration 26.02 16.93 Kinango from the previous month of July. 40.55 28.8 Lungalunga 31.23 23.56 Matuga 38.99 26.21 Msambweni County The entire county deteriorated from normal vegetation greenness 40.72 32.41 to moderate vegetation deficit yet the 2 sub-counties under 50.82 51.31 review remained stable in comparison to previous month. LAMU Lamu East 34.87 21.47 Lamu West VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT GREENNESS County The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. 35.47 43.47 Taveta and Voi sub-counties improved from moderate vegetation 40.58 42.58 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 34.15 41.87 TAITA Taveta TAVETA 32.95 43 Wundanyi 54.1 59.94 County 59.24 53.99 57.64 49.59 Narok-East There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, Emurua in7 sub- counties. However, the VCI value for Narok East sub- NAROK 62.69 64.54 Dikirr county showed a decrease trend from above normal to normal 51.09 51.75 vegetation greenness. Kilgoris 60.88 54.84 64.38 57.44 58.06 52.66 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "September_2021.pdf": "September 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance During the month of August 2021, most ASAL counties remained generally dry and rainfall received was below the long term average of August 2021.Most parts of ASAL counties including; Turkana, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, Tana River, Makueni, Kitui, Kajiado, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Nyeri, Isiolo, Meru North and Taita Taveta received less than 20mm of rainfall totals except the highland areas of rift valley including Baringo, Laikipia , Samburu, Narok and West Pokot which received between 51-100 mm of total rainfall. Figure 1 indicates observed rainfall totals during the month of August 2021. Figure 1.Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will generally remain dry and sunny during the month of September 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to experience sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. However, areas bordering Uganda and Southern Sudan are likely to experience occasional rainfall during the first two weeks of the month. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be slightly above the long-term average amounts for September. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are likely to experience generally dry weather conditions with occasional light morning showers. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be below the long-term average for the month of Figure 2.Rainfall forecast September. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are likely to experience sunny and dry weather conditions for most of the month. However, occasional afternoon showers and Figure 2.August Rainfall forecast cloudy conditions in the mornings are likely, especially during the first three weeks. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be near the long-term average for September while North Eastern Kenya and Southeastern Lowlands including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely are likely to experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. Figure 3 matches the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in August 2020 with that in August 2021. When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of August 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2020 and August 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August 2020 2021 As at the end of August 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River and Wajir.The eight counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in August 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of August 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the nine (9) sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in MAM season 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of August 2021. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe (9) vegetation Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, deficit Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) Moderate (8) (29) vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township) Isiolo (Isiolo North, deficit Kwale, Lamu, Isiolo South) Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado-North) Kilifi Samburu, Tana River, (Magarini, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu West) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale) Samburu (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Normal (10) (43) vegetation Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) greenness Laikipia, Mandera, Kajiado (Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Kitui (Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia Taita Taveta, Tharaka East) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Makueni) Mandera Nithi, (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (North Horr, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu west) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tharaka Nithi (Maara, Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Vegetation (5) (32) greenness Baringo, Makueni, Baringo (Baringo Central, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Above normal Narok, Turkana, West South, Tiaty) Kajiado (Kajiado-West) Kitui (Kitui Central) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Lamu (Lamu East,) Makueni (Kibwezi West, Kilome, Mbooni) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka,) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month. However, pasture Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor and fair to poor conditions except in Lamu, Narok and West Pokot that reported fair to good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is deteriorating as compared to the previous month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Baringo Lamu Garissa Baringo Lamu Isiolo Embu Isiolo Embu Narok Kajiado Marsabit Kilifi Kajiado West Pokot Kilifi Narok Mandera Kitui Taita Taveta Meru Kwale Tana River Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Tana River Makueni Wajir Taita Taveta Nyeri Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month even though pasture Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Isiolo Embu Wajir Embu Taita Taveta Mandera Kajiado Garissa Tana River Samburu Kilifi Kilifi Turkana Kitui Kitui Wajir Kwale Kwale Laikipia Lamu Lamu Laikipia Makueni Makueni Marsabit Marsabit Meru Mandera Narok Meru Nyeri Narok Tana River Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Samburu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2021 Milk Embu Kwale Baringo Baringo Garissa Embu Productio Lamu Taita Garissa Kwale Taita Isiolo n Makueni Taveta Isiolo Mandera Taveta Kajiado Narok Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Kilifi Samburu Kilifi Meru Kitui West Pokot Kitui Samburu Laikipia Laikipia Tharaka Lamu Mandera Nithi Makueni Marsabit West Narok Meru Pokot Nyeri Nyeri Turkana Tana River Wajir Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of August in about 52 percent of the ASAL counties as compared to 60 percent during the previous month as shown in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2021 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Baringo Meru Kilifi Baringo Kajiado Prices Isiolo Samburu Mandera Isiolo Kitui Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Kilifi Lamu Kitui Garissa Marsabit Makueni Samburu Lamu Turkana Mandera Tana River Makueni Embu Meru Wajir Narok Narok Embu Taita Taveta Nyeri Garissa Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot West Pokot Laikipia Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of August, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Meru, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Nyeri counties.The goat prices are stable but worsening as compared to the previous month due to deteriorating in livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2021 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Kajiado Baringo Meru Lamu Baringo Isiolo Prices Kilifi Isiolo Nyeri Kilifi Kajiado Lamu Kitui Wajir Kitui Meru Laikipia Makueni Turkana Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Narok Mandera Garissa Makueni Wajir Taita Samburu Marsabit Mandera Embu Taveta Embu Narok Garissa Tana River Nyeri Marsabit Tharaka Samburu Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Kwale West Pokot March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas and thus late planted maize crops were in fair to poor condition with farm army worm infestation in counties like Kilifi while the harvested crops were below average as compared to expected production during normal season in marginal agriculture counties like Nyeri (Kieni), Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta and Kwale counties. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in August as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are aboveclose to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month.The increase has disadvantaged pastoralists terms of trade and thus need for close monitoring as the season progress especially in Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Marsabit ,Nyeri and Taita taveta counties. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2021 Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening to LTA Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Nyeri Prices Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Tana River Embu Tharaka Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Kitui Nithi Kajiado Mandera Lamu Meru Wajir Kilifi Marsabit Makueni Tana River Nyeri Narok Tharaka Taita Taveta Samburu Nithi Laikipia Turkana Wajir Lamu West Makueni Narok Taita Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2021. Distance Baringo Isiolo Baringo Garissa Embu from Embu Kitui Kwale Kilifi Isiolo households Garissa Makueni Kitui Kajiado to main Kajiado Narok Laikipia Mandera water Kilifi Tana River Lamu Meru sources Kwale Tharaka Nithi Makueni Narok Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Lamu Samburu Taita Mandera Taveta Marsabit Tana River Meru Tharaka Nyeri Nithi Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties.80 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Baringo Kitui Kajiado Baringo Embu from Embu Narok Kilifi Garissa Kajiado livestock Garissa Wajir Tana River Isiolo Kitui grazing area Isiolo West Tharaka Kilifi Kwale to main Kwale Pokot Nithi Laikipia Lamu water Laikipia Meru Makueni sources Lamu Narok Mandera Makueni Tana River Marsabit Mandera Tharaka Nyeri Marsabit Nithi Samburu Meru West Pokot Taita Nyeri Taveta Taita Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. The ToT maintains a stable trend compared to the previous month however it is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The worsening trend is as result of deteriorating livestock body condition in relation to increase in maize price. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, August 2021 Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Terms of Kajiado Baringo Garissa West-Pokot Baringo Garissa trade (ToT) Kilifi Embu Marsabit Embu Kajiado Lamu Isiolo Meru Isiolo Lamu Makueni Kitui Nyeri Kilifi Mandera Narok Kwale Turkana Kitui Marsabit Tana- Laikipia Kwale Meru River Mandera Laikipia Tana-River Tharaka- Samburu Makueni Tharaka-Nithi Nithi Taita- Narok Wajir Taveta Nyeri Wajir Samburu West- Taita- Pokot Taveta Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has been on a visible worsening trend with the following counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Narok, Mandera, Tana River, Marsabit, Samburu and Nyeri having MUAC values above long term average. The remaining counties including Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Meru North,Taita Taveta, Wajir, Embu, Kwale and Laikipia were close to LTA.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2021 Baringo Isiolo Kajiado West Pokot Isiolo Baringo Narok Kilifi Kitui Embu Kilifi Kajiado MUAC Mandera Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Kitui Nyeri Makueni West Pokot Lamu Marsabit Samburu Meru Turkana Makueni Mandera Tana River Taita Meru Narok Marsabit Taveta Taita Taveta Nyeri Garissa Wajir Tharaka- Samburu Embu Nithi Tana River Kwale Turkana Laikipia Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of August 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties; Embu (Mbeere), Meru-North, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana-River, and Turkana are in the alert drought phase and thus seven (7) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, West-Pokot, Kajiado, Nyeri (Kieni), and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo and Mandera are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as poor performance of 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Kajiado Narok Nyeri(Kieni) Tharaka-Nithi Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Alert Embu(Mbeere) Kilifi Meru-North Kitui Tana-River Alarm Marsabit Isiolo Wajir Mandera Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th August 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS as at 26th as at 30th (3- BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal 54.31 58.42 vegetation greenness in the month of August except Eldama which 60.01 60.94 was at normal greenness. Eldama 52.35 42.28 Ravine Mogotio 45.08 56.2 62.51 65.12 53.82 61.2 Tiaty 53.57 58.54 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness 40.9 39.3 in the month of August which is a stable trend except Mandera Banissa 44.29 40.8 South which worsened to a moderate vegetation deficit. The M East current month VCI trend is similar to the previous month of July. 42.61 39.49 Lafey 41.94 41.53 M North 48.65 44.43 M South 36.1 34.22 M West 34.45 36.45 TURKANA County There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties 57.8 53.23 recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of T Central 71.3 78.18 August. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation T. East greenness. 46.86 43.08 T. Loima 72.88 61.9 T. North 44.86 43.38 T. South 68.13 57.39 T. West 62.56 56.15 MARSABIT County The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal 34.64 38.82 vegetation greenness except for Moyale and Laisamis which Laisaimis 29.96 34.31 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Moyale 31.09 34.34 N. Horr 37.72 41.97 42.91 48.44 WAJIR County The situation deteriorated in the county at moderate vegetation 27.22 23.78 deficit. Wajir South and West worsened from moderate vegetation W East 29.27 23.68 deficit to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. W. Eldas 25.25 28.52 W. North 30.76 34.27 W. South 24.23 16.92 W. Tarbaj 33.86 30.35 W West 24.95 19.36 SAMBURU County Worsening in vegetation from normal vegetation greenness in the 38.69 34.59 previous month of July to Moderate vegetation deficit in the month S East 28.61 26.54 under review. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. North 49.03 41.21 S. West 44.04 44.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation 25.91 21.16 deficit band with Daadab and Ijara sub-county worsening from Balambala 23.42 21.17 moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit band and from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit Daadab 20.85 15.29 respectively. 24.85 21.15 Ijara 43.02 29.44 Lagdera 14.24 17.28 Dujis 23.79 20.41 ISIOLO County There was improvement in the entire countys vegetation condition 18.97 23.09 from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in I. North 19.76 23.94 comparison to the previous month of July. I. South 17.76 21.79 TANA County The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation 27.5 29.23 RIVER condition in the month of August. 28.08 28.36 Galole 22.58 25.66 Garsen 30.09 32.21 KAJIADO County Stable trend noted across the county with sub counties with a 47.38 45.68 worsening trend in Kajiado Central sub-county from normal 39.23 32.92 vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in August. K. Central 43.33 41.26 K. East 45.34 33.6 K. North 44.21 48.55 K. South 56.34 52.74 K. West LAIKIPIA County The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in comparison 38.05 37.62 to the previous months. However, an improvement was noted in 44.73 36.94 Laikipia West whose value shifted from Normal vegetation L. East greenness to Above Normal. 33.18 30.25 L. North 43.95 51.75 L. West THARAKA County The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under 57.62 45.25 NITHI review when compared to Above Normal category in the previous 61.51 50.79 month of July. Chulga 60.97 46.02 Maara 55.08 42.92 WEST County The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- 51.38 53.13 POKOT counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the 49.12 50.65 previous month. Kacheliba 51 54.5 Kapenguria 63.51 61.87 48.62 51.31 Sigor EMBU County The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month 46.56 39.61 of August across most of the sub-counties with Normal vegetation 42.51 40.01 greenness. Mbeere North and Runyenjes sub-counties deteriorated Manyatta from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. 53.27 44.86 42.21 35.46 Runyenjes 52.28 42.78 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month month values as at 26h as at 30th (3- County The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at normal 38.38 41.68 vegetation greenness. Kitui central improved from Normal to 46.37 55.31 Above normal vegetation greenness, Kitui Rural from severe to Kitui Central moderate vegetation deficit. However, Mwingi West worsened 40.18 45.7 Kitui East from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. 32.78 33.9 KITUI Central 33.77 27.38 35.43 32.64 18.5 27.82 Kitui Rural 41.41 48.56 Kitui South 40.64 41.97 Kitui West County The county and three other of its sub counties recorded above 44.07 50.46 normal vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend compared 37.9 46.63 to July except for Kilome which remained stable Kaiti 43.24 48.01 45.23 51.32 MAKUENI 50.89 56.77 Kilome 39.66 46.16 47.38 57.5 Mbooni County The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and 3 others 51.44 44.27 of its Sub-counties except for Igembe Central, Igembe South and 53.76 44.15 North Imenti which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 51.64 41.85 Imenti 60.23 51.11 40.35 38.06 62.33 53.55 MERU South 51.43 52.32 North Imenti 64.16 36.9 South Imenti 34.12 39.66 Tigania East Tigania 47.09 47.26 County The county, Town and Othaya sub-counties worsened from above 58.03 47.7 normal to above normal vegetation greenness when compared with 60.23 52.8 the previous month of July, Kieni, Mathira, and Tetu remained Kieni stable in their VCI values. 49.32 42.09 Mathira 39.8 52.9 Mukurweini NYERI 64.9 37.05 64.44 37.32 Othaya 48.76 45.06 County The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable and 22.7 21.19 KILIFI most of its sub counties recording severe vegetation deficit. Rabai 21.8 17.24 and Kilifi south sub-counties improved from extreme to severe Ganze vegetation deficit and from extreme to moderate vegetation deficit 17.95 15.23 respectively. Kaloleni 22.66 21.53 Magarini 24.84 19.41 Malindi 45.34 39.54 Kilifi-North 2.7 14.39 Rabai Kilifi-South 2.06 26.18 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit, with Kinango 30.75 21.04 sub-county recording severe vegetation deficit, a deterioration 26.02 16.93 from the previous month of July. Kinango 40.55 28.8 KWALE Lungalunga 31.23 23.56 Matuga 38.99 26.21 Msambweni County The entire county deteriorated from normal vegetation greenness 40.72 32.41 to moderate vegetation deficit yet the 2 sub-counties under 50.82 51.31 review remained stable in comparison to previous month. LAMU Lamu East 34.87 21.47 Lamu West VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT GREENNESS County The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. 35.47 43.47 Taveta and Voi sub-counties improved from moderate vegetation 40.58 42.58 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 34.15 41.87 TAITA Taveta TAVETA 32.95 43 Wundanyi 54.1 59.94 59.24 53.99 57.64 49.59 Narok-East Emurua 62.69 64.54 Dikirr There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in7 sub- counties. However, the VCI value for Narok East sub- 51.09 51.75 Kilgoris county showed a decrease trend from above normal to normal NAROK 60.88 54.84 vegetation greenness. 64.38 57.44 58.06 52.66 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "October_2021.pdf": "October 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for September 2021 During the month of September 2021, West Pokot, Turkana, Baringo, western parts of Marsabit, Samburu, Narok and Laikipia County received rainfall that was near to above average for the month of September (70-200mm). The Coast strip, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale received near to below average rainfall. Generally sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over the rest of the country during this period including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Kitui and Makueni. As at 27th September, Mandera, Garissa, Machakos, Makindu and Voi meteorological stations Figure 1. September Rainfall Performance recorded no rainfall during the month. Rainfall Forecast for October 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for October indicates that several ASAL counties including; Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Tana River Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are likely to experience Below-Average rainfall. Turkana, Samburu, Meru, Laikipia, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado are likely to experience near-average rainfall with a tendency to above-average, as seen in Figure 2. The October 2021 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space over most parts of the country. Figure 1. October Rainfall forecast Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in September 2020 with that in September 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of September 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2020 and September Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2020 September 2021 As at the end of September 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu and Wajir. The seven counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in September 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of September 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Lamu (Lamu West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the five (5) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the ongoing worsening drought situation in greater span of ASAL. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of September 2021. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe (5) vegetation Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Lamu (Lamu deficit West) Moderate (7) (24) vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Lagdera, deficit Kwale, Lamu, Dadaab) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi Samburu, Wajir (Magarini, Kilifi-South, Kilifi-North) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Laikipia (Laikipia North, Laikipia East) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu (Samburu East, Samburu North) Wajir (Wajir South, Eldas, Wajir West) Normal (9) (39) vegetation Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) greenness Mandera, Marsabit, Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Mwingi Meru, Tana River, Central, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Lamu (Lamu East) Tharaka Nithi, Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera Turkana North, Mandera West, Mandera South) Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west, Igembe Central, Igembe South) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Township) Samburu (Samburu west) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Vegetation (7) (45) greenness Baringo, Kajiado, Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine Mogotio, Above normal Makueni, Narok, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado East, Kajiado West Pokot South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok- North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot that reported fair to good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Baringo West Pokot Embu Baringo West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Narok Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Kilifi Narok Kitui Kitui Taita Taveta Kwale Kwale Tana River Laikipia Lamu Tharaka Nithi Lamu Makueni Makueni Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Nyeri Tana River Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3.The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse coupled with late onset of the current short rains season of 2021. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2021 Cattle Goats Kwale Baringo Narok Kwale Baringo Narok Mandera Embu Taita Taveta Mandera Embu Taita Taveta Marsabit Garissa West Pokot Marsabit Garissa West Pokot Nyeri Isiolo Nyeri Isiolo Samburu Kajiado Tana River Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Turkana Kilifi Wajir Kitui Wajir Kitui Laikipia Laikipia Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Meru Meru Tharaka Nithi Samburu Turkana Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2021 Milk Laikipia Embu Baringo Baringo Garissa Embu Production Makueni Kitui Garissa Laikipia Kajiado Isiolo Samburu Narok Isiolo Makueni Kilifi Lamu Tharaka Kajiado Turkana Kitui Mandera Nithi Kilifi West Kwale Marsabit West Pokot Kwale Pokot Nyeri Meru Lamu Samburu Narok Mandera Taita Tana River Marsabit Taveta Tharaka Meru Wajir Nithi Nyeri Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, over 50 percent of counties reported cattle above LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2021 Cattle Baringo Lamu Embu Kitui Baringo Isiolo Prices Isiolo Taita- Garissa Embu Kajiado Kajiado Taveta Laikipia Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Mandera Kilifi Makueni Kitui Marsabit Lamu Narok Makueni Nyeri Mandera Samburu Meru Samburu Marsabit Tana-River Narok Turkana Meru Turkana Tana-River Nyeri Tharaka- Taita-Taveta Nithi Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Wajir West- West-Pokot Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of September, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Lamu, Marsabit and Nyeri counties.The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of August. Improvement is noted in West Pokot county due to the light showers received during the month of september. Table 6.0: Goat prices, September 2021 Goat Embu Baringo Lamu West Baringo Isiolo Prices Garissa Isiolo Marsabit Pokot Embu Kajiado Kajiado Makueni Nyeri Garissa Kwale Kilifi Mandera Turkana Kilifi Lamu Kitui Meru Kitui Makueni Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Laikipia Samburu Meru Mandera Narok West Narok Nyeri Taita Pokot Samburu Tharaka Taveta Taita Nithi Tana River Taveta Turkana Tharaka Tana River Wajir Livestock Mortality During the reporting period,all ASAL counties did not report livestock mortality except Kilifi that indicated suspected cases of livestock mortality as result of drought and thus need for close monitoring. March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Kilifi and Kwale however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta County. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in September as compared to the previous month of August as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to poor crop production that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2021 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Isiolo Baringo Tana River Lamu Baringo Embu Prices Mandera Kajiado Kilifi West Garissa Meru Nyeri Kitui Pokot Isiolo Tharaka Wajir Lamu Kajiado Nithi Laikipia Makueni Kilifi West Pokot Marsabit Meru Kitui Garissa Narok Kwale Taita Taveta Makueni Tharaka Mandera Nithi Marsabit West Pokot Nyeri Turkana Samburu Kwale Taita Taveta Embu Tana River WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 19 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains and continued dryness. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2021. Distance Baringo Makueni Isiolo Laikipia Baringo Embu from Embu Tharaka Kilifi Garissa households Garissa Nithi Lamu Isiolo to main Kajiado West Makueni Kajiado water Kilifi Pokot Marsabit Kitui sources Kitui West Pokot Kwale Kwale Mandera Laikipia Meru Lamu Narok Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Samburu Meru Taita Narok Taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Tharaka Taita Taveta Nithi Tana River Turkana Turkana Wajir Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 70 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Baringo Kajiado Baringo Embu from Embu Kilifi Kilifi Garissa livestock Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Isiolo grazing area Kwale Wajir Makueni Kajiado to main Laikipia West Meru Kitui water Lamu Pokot Tana Kwale sources Makueni Garissa River Lamu Mandera Tana Turkana Mandera Marsabit river West Marsabit Meru Pokot Narok Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Tharaka Nithi Nithi Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except West Pokot ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA).The TOT maintains a stable and on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The worsening trend is as result of decreasing goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable and on increasing trend among ASALs. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, September 2021 Indica Current status Trend tor Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms West Pokot Baringo Embu West Pokot Baringo Embu of Garissa Isiolo Garissa Isiolo trade Kitui Kajiado Kajiado Makueni (ToT) Kwale Kilifi Kilifi Mandera Laikipia Makueni Kitui Marsabit Lamu Mander Kwale Tharaka Meru aMarsab Laikipia Nithi Narok it Lamu Turkana Samburu Nyeri Meru Taita Taveta Turkana Narok Tana-River Tharaka- Nyeri Wajir Nithi Samburu Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has greatly worsened in most counties. Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Nyeri, Tana River, Marsabit and Makueni have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the seven counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of covid pandemic.70 percent of the ASAL counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September2021 Baringo Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Embu Narok Kilifi Kitui West Pokot Lamu Garissa MUAC Mandera Lamu Tharaka- Laikipia Narok Isiolo Nyeri Meru Nithi Turkana Kajiado Samburu Taita Taveta West Kitui Tana River Wajir Pokot Makueni Marsabit Embu Mandera Garissa Kwale Meru Makueni Laikipia Nyeri Turkana. Samburu Isiolo Taita- Taveta Tharaka- Kwale Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of September 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties; Meru-North, Tharaka- Nithi, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri (Kieni), Narok and Samburu are in the alert drought phase; Three (3) counties including; Baringo, West-Pokot and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Turkana, Garissa, Lamu, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Tana-River and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, six (6) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining Seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor performance of 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, September 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Alert Tharaka-Nithi Embu (Mbeere) Kwale Kilifi Kajiado Laikipia Meru (North) Nyeri (Kieni) Narok Samburu Alarm Turkana Garissa Isiolo Mandera Tana-River Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th September 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS August r2021 50 Vegetation greenness BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded above 58.42 66.42 normal vegetation greenness in the month of September 60.94 73.72 with Eldama improving from normal greenness to above Eldama 42.28 62.20 normal greenness. Mogotio 56.2 67.77 65.12 71.80 61.2 63.95 Tiaty 58.54 64.76 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation 39.3 46.67 Banissa greenness in the month of September which is a stable 40.8 43.65 trend except Mandera South which improved from M East 39.49 43.56 moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation Lafey 41.53 46.29 greenness. M North 44.43 49.12 M South 34.22 48.24 M West 36.45 45.55 TURKANA County There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub 53.23 48.51 counties recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation T Central 78.18 72.33 greenness in the month of September. The county and T. East 43.08 38.62 Turkana South deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. T. Loima 61.9 52.88 T. North 43.38 41.79 T. South 57.39 46.86 T. West 56.15 53.43 MARSABIT County The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable at 38.82 36.38 normal vegetation greenness except for Laisamis which Laisaimis 34.31 32.29 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while North Moyale 34.34 36.59 Horr improved from moderate deficit to normal greenness. N. Horr 41.97 37.98 48.44 48.17 WAJIR County The situation remained stable in the county and Eldas at 23.78 33.02 moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir East and North W East 23.68 37.07 improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal W. Eldas 28.52 33.6 vegetation greenness during the month under review while W. North Wajir south and West improved from severe to moderate 34.27 46.72 vegetation deficit. W. South 16.92 25.34 W. Tarbaj 30.35 43.6 W West 19.36 23.68 SAMBURU County Stability in vegetation condition was noted in the county 34.59 30.93 and two of its sub-counties. Samburu North worsened from S East 26.54 25.44 normal greenness to Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. North 41.21 33.36 S. West 44.63 45.04 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS 30th September month) August 2021 50 Vegetation greenness GARISSA County The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate 21.16 28.73 Balambala vegetation deficit band with Daadab and Lagdera sub- 21.17 28.38 county improving from severe vegetation deficit to Daadab 15.29 26.73 moderate vegetation deficit band. 21.15 30.93 Ijara 29.44 29.12 Lagdera 17.28 25.15 Dujis 20.41 29.79 ISIOLO County There was stability in the entire countys vegetation 23.09 27.95 condition at moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to I. North 23.94 28.29 the previous month of August. I. South 21.79 27.44 TANA County The county and its sub counties noted an improving trend 29.23 38.4 RIVER from Moderate vegetation condition to normal vegetation 28.36 36.12 greenness in the month of September. Galole 25.66 36.96 Garsen 32.21 41.24 KAJIADO County Improving trend noted across the county and four of its sub 45.68 55.02 counties with a stable trend noted for Kajiado West. 32.92 42.55 K. Central 41.26 53.79 K. East 33.6 42.6 K. North 48.55 56.98 K. South 52.74 61.28 K. West LAIKIPIA County The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in 37.62 40 comparison to the previous months. However, a decline 36.94 34.7 L. East was noted in Laikipia East whose value shifted from Normal 30.25 31.25 L. North vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. 51.75 58.94 L. West THARAKA County The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month 45.25 45 NITHI under review. Maara improved from normal to above 50.79 55.7 Chulga normal greenness. 46.02 52.51 Maara 42.92 38.56 WEST County The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the 53.13 62.75 POKOT sub-counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison 50.65 58.06 Kacheliba the previous month. Kapenguri 54.5 68.61 61.87 73.31 51.31 60.09 Sigor EMBU County The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable 39.61 47.41 during the month of September with Normal vegetation 40.01 55.59 Manyatta greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub-counties improved from normal to above normal vegetation 44.86 48.87 35.46 41.71 Runyenjes 42.78 56.17 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub VCI-3 VCI-3 Colou VCI Drought Category County month month as r values 30th Septembe month August r 2021 ) 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit County The county remained stable at normal vegetation 41.68 48.05 greenness. Kitui central remained stable at Above normal 55.31 62.82 vegetation greenness while Mwingi North remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui East, South and West 45.7 53.31 Kitui East improved from normal to above normal greenness while Mwingi central, west and Kitui rural improved from KITUI 33.9 38.74 Moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation 27.38 28.9 32.64 41.12 27.82 35.83 Kitui Rural 48.56 56.11 41.97 51.15 Kitui West County The county and all its sub counties recorded above normal 50.46 60.5 vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend 46.63 72.81 Kaiti compared to August for Kaiti, Kibwezi East and Makueni. 48.01 57.26 MAKUENI 51.32 58.77 56.77 67.07 Kilome 46.16 53.64 57.5 72.01 Mbooni County The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and 44.27 46.51 eight others of its Sub-counties except for North Imenti 44.15 47.66 Buuri which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Igembe Central and South deteriorated from above normal 41.85 46.95 to normal vegetation greenness. 51.11 48.94 38.06 40.31 MERU North 53.55 47.91 52.32 55.16 36.9 47.38 39.66 44.07 47.26 48.02 County The county, Nyeri town and Othaya sub-counties improved 47.7 52.37 from normal to above normal vegetation greenness when 52.8 52.33 Kieni compared with the previous month of August, Kieni, 42.09 49.7 Mathira, and Tetu remained stable in their VCI conditions. Mathira Mukurwei NYERI 52.9 63.03 37.05 51.56 37.32 52.62 Othaya 45.06 49.62 County The vegetation condition noted across the county was 21.19 23.08 stable and most of its sub counties recording Moderate and 17.24 18.56 Ganze severe vegetation deficit. Kilifi North deteriorated from 15.23 18.63 normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni 21.53 25.68 Magarini KILIFI 19.41 13.41 Malindi 39.54 26.65 14.39 18.28 Rabai 26.18 29.46 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate 21.04 23.68 KWALE vegetation deficit, with Kinango improving from severe 16.93 21.24 Kinango vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. Lungalung 28.8 25.84 23.56 27.71 Matuga Msambwe 26.21 32.09 County The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit 32.41 28.8 with a decreasing trend in values. Lamu East deteriorated 51.31 47.13 Lamu East LAMU from above normal to normal vegetation greenness while Lamu Lamu West deteriorated from moderate deficit to severe 21.47 18.2 West vegetation deficit in comparison to previous month. VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT GREENNESS August r 2021 50 Vegetation greenness 10 Extreme vegetation deficit County The County and its sub-counties improved from Normal to 43.47 56.6 above normal vegetation greenness while Wundanyi 42.58 56.5 Mwatate TAITA remained stable at above normal greenness with a high VCI TAVETA Taveta 41.87 59.48 value. 43 54.19 Wundanyi 59.94 71.06 53.99 54.6 49.59 47.91 Emurua 64.54 68.62 Dikirr There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in the County and five of its sub- counties. The VCI 51.75 57.32 Kilgoris value for Narok East sub-county also remained stable at NAROK Narok- 54.84 54.71 normal greenness with a decreasing trend. 57.44 56.6 52.66 53.35 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "November_2021.pdf": "November 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for October 2021 During the month of October 2021, most parts of the ASALs experienced dry weather conditions except the West Pokot, Southern Turkana, Baringo, Samburu, Narok and Laikipia, and Narok Counties received rainfall that was near to above average for the month of September (76- 125mm). The start of the seasonal rains (onset) has not yet been realized over several places. Most meteorological stations in the counties including; Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo, Garissa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui and Makueni recorded monthly rainfall totals of less than 75 percent of their October 2 monthly LTMs. Trace amounts of rainfall Figure 1. October Rainfall Performance 5.0mm were observed in Marsabit, Wajir and Makueni. Rainfall Forecast for November 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for November 2021 indicates West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Narok, Kajiado, Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi western parts of Kitui and Makueni are likely to experience near-average rainfall for the month. The South-Eastern Lowlands (Makueni, Kitui and Taita Taveta), Northeastern (Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Turkana counties) and the Coastal Strip (Kwale, Lamu, Tana River and Kilifi counties) are likely to experience near to below average rainfall as shown in Figure 2. The Figure 1. November Rainfall forecast November 2021 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space over most parts of the country. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2020 with that in October 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of October 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2020 and October 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) October 2020 October 2021 As at the end of October 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included; Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu. The five counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in October 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the five counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of October 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Kilifi (Malindi) recorded Extreme vegetation deficit, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Rabai) recorded the low VCI values with the five (5) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the ongoing worsening drought situation in greater span of ASAL. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of October 2021. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (1) Kilifi (Malindi) Severe (5) vegetation Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Rabai) deficit Moderate (5) (21) vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Lagdera, Dadaab) deficit Kwale, Lamu Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu West) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu (Samburu East) Tana River (Bura) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Normal (10) (37) vegetation Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) greenness Mandera, Marsabit, Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Mwingi Meru, Samburu, Tana Central, Kitui East, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Laikipia River, Tharaka Nithi, (Laikipia East, Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, Tigania East, Tigania west, Igembe Central, Igembe South) Narok (Narok-East, Narok North) Nyeri (Kieni, Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Tana River (Galole, Garsen) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation (8) (49) greenness Baringo, Kajiado, Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Above normal Makueni, Narok, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado East, Kajiado Turkana, West Pokot South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot that reported good pasture condition due to the minimal OND rainfall showers, and Baringo and Narok displaying fair conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and NO rains experienced in OND that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, October 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Baringo West Pokot Embu Baringo West Pokot Garissa Narok Garissa Laikipia Isiolo Turkana Isiolo Narok Kajiado Kajiado Kilifi Kilifi Kitui Kitui Kwale Kwale Laikipia Lamu Lamu Makueni Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Nyeri Nyeri Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse coupled with late onset of the current short rains season of 2021. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, October 2021 Cattle Goats Embu Baringo West Pokot Garissa Baringo Narok Garissa Kilifi Isiolo Embu West Pokot Isiolo Kitui Mandera Kajiado Kajiado Kwale Marsabit Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Kitui Lamu Meru Samburu Kwale Mandera Narok Tana River Laikipia Marsabit Taita Taveta Wajir Lamu Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Makueni Samburu Turkana Meru Tana River Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month of September. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, October 2021 Milk Laikipia Narok Baringo Meru Baringo Embu Production Makueni Tharaka Embu Garissa Kilifi West Pokot Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Kajiado Lamu Laikipia Kilifi Makueni Mandera Kitui Nyeri Marsabit Kwale Taita Narok Lamu Taveta Samburu Mandera Tana River Tharaka Marsabit West Nithi Meru Pokot Wajir Taita Taveta Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are worsening as compared to the last month of September. These includes; Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Tana River and Turkana owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Baringo, Lamu, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2021 Cattle Baringo Garissa Embu Baringo Embu Prices Lamu Isiolo Kilifi Garissa Kilifi Meru Kajiado Laikipia Isiolo Kitui Tana-River Kitui Makueni Kajiado Laikipia Tharaka- Narok Mandera Makueni Lamu Nithi Taita- Marsabit Mandera Marsabit West- Taveta Nyeri Meru Samburu Pokot Samburu Narok Taita-Taveta Wajir Nyeri Tana-River Turkana West-Pokot Tharaka- Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of October, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Garrisa,Turkana, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir and Nyeri counties.The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of September. Improvement is noted in Baringo, Makueni county due to stable body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, October 2021 Goat Kajiado Baringo Garissa Baringo Embu Kilifi Prices Kilifi Embu Lamu Makueni Garissa Kitui Kitui Isiolo Mandera Isiolo Kwale Kwale Makueni Marsabit Kajiado Marsabit Laikipia Meru Nyeri Laikipia Meru Narok Taita- Samburu Lamu Narok Tana-River Taveta Wajir Mandera Nyeri Tharaka- Turkana Samburu Tana-River Nithi Taita- Tharaka-Nithi West- Taveta Wajir Pokot West- Livestock Mortality During the reporting period the following 10(ten) counties including Mandera,Garissa ,Wajir ,Wajir ,Marsabit,isiolo,Tana river,Samburu,Laikipia and Turkana reported cases of livestock death as per table 7.0.The situation has worsened as compared to the previous month and thus need for quick response and close monitoring. Table 7.0.Livestock mortality County Livestock deaths reported Mandera Reported livestock deaths Garissa Reported cases of livestock deaths Wajir Reported cases of livestock deaths Marsabit Deaths reported Isiolo Reported cases of livestock deaths Tana river Reported cases of livestock deaths Samburu Reported cases of livestock deaths Laikipia Reported cases of livestock deaths Kilifi Reported cases of livestock deaths Kwale Reported cases of livestock deaths Lamu Livestock deaths reported March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Kilifi and Kwale however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta County. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in October as compared to the previous month of September as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to poor crop production that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, October 2021 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Embu Kilifi Nyeri Baringo Kitui Prices Garissa Kitui Makueni West Pokot Embu Lamu Isiolo Kwale Meru Garissa Marsabit Kajiado Lamu Isiolo Tana Laikipia Narok Kajiado River Mandera Nyeri Kilifi Marsabit Samburu Kwale Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Laikipia Wajir Tana River Makueni Turkana West Pokot Mandera WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 19 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains and continued dryness. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, October 2021. Distance Baringo Kitui Makueni Garissa Baringo Kilifi from Embu West Pokot Tharaka Samburu Embu Kwale households Garissa Nithi Tana River Isiolo Laikipia to main Isiolo Tharaka Kajiado Lamu water Kajiado Nithi Kitui Makueni sources Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Kwale Nyeri Meru Laikipia West Narok Lamu Pokot Taita Mandera Taveta Marsabit Wajir Meru Turkana Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 10.0. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 87 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend as shown in table 10.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Baringo West Kitui Kitui Baringo Kilifi from Embu Pokot Wajir Samburu Embu Marsabit livestock Garissa Garissa Meru grazing area Isiolo Isiolo Narok to main Kajiado Kajiado Nyeri water Kilifi Kwale Taita Taveta sources Kwale Laikipia Tana River Laikipia Lamu Wajir Lamu Makueni Turkana Mandera Tharaka Nithi Marsabit West Pokot River Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is at a declining trend as its displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as result of decreasing goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable and on increasing trend among ASALs Table 11.0: Terms of trade, October 2021 Terms of Garissa Kajiado Baringo Baringo Embu Isiolo trade Kilifi Kitui Embu Makueni Garissa Kajiado (ToT) Makueni Tana-River Isiolo West- Laikipia Kilifi West- Kwale Pokot Nyeri (Kieni) Kitui Pokot Laikipia Samburu Kwale Lamu Lamu Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru-North Meru-North Narok Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Taita-Taveta Samburu Tana-River Taita-Taveta Tharaka- Tharaka- Nithi Nithi Turkana Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has worsened in most counties. Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni and Taita-Taveta have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of covid pandemic. Isiolo, Kajiado, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Wajir and West-Pokot counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 12.0 that requires close monitoring. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2021 Garissa Baringo Isiolo Baringo Embu Isiolo Kitui Embu Kajiado Kitui Garissa Kajiado MUAC Lamu Kilifi Kwale Lamu Kilifi Kwale Makueni Laikipia Mandera Makueni Laikipia Mandera Taita- Meru Marsabit Samburu Meru Marsabit Taveta Narok Taita- Nyeri Narok Turkana Nyeri Taveta Tana-River Wajir Samburu Tharaka- West- Tana-River Nithi Pokot Tharaka- West- Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of October 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties; Kwale, Embu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru North, Narok, Nyeri Kieni, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi are in the alert drought phase; Three (3) counties including; Baringo, West-Pokot and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas ten(10) counties including Kitui, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana-River,Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, four (4) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of the ongoing poor performance of 2021 short rains. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, October 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Alert Kwale Embu Laikipia Kajiado Meru North Nyeri Kieni Tharaka-Nithi Alarm Kitui Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Tana-River Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th October 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS September Octeber month) BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal 66.42 76.48 vegetation greenness in the month of October with an 73.72 88.37 improvement in the VCI values. Eldama 62.20 81.7 Mogotio 67.77 74.09 71.80 79.18 63.95 65.46 Tiaty 64.76 77.42 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties remained stable at Normal 46.67 47.3 vegetation greenness in the month of October while Mandera Banissa 43.65 42.28 South improved from normal greenness to above normal M East vegetation greenness. 43.56 41.19 Lafey 46.29 43.11 M North 49.12 48.75 M South 48.24 52.5 M West 45.55 48.77 TURKANA County There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties 48.51 54.82 recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the T Central 72.33 65.27 month of September. The county and Turkana South improved T. East from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. 38.62 49.96 T. Loima 52.88 65.39 T. North 41.79 45.51 T. South 46.86 53.94 T. West 53.43 60.15 MARSABIT County The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable at normal 36.38 35.55 vegetation greenness except for Laisamis which remained stable Laisaimis 32.29 32.14 at moderate vegetation deficit while Saku improved from normal to above normal greenness. Moyale 36.59 37.51 N. Horr 37.98 36.14 48.17 50.8 WAJIR County The County and one of its sub counties improved from moderate 33.02 37.21 vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Wajir East and W East 37.07 40.89 Tarbaj remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Wajir South and West remained stable at moderate vegetation W. Eldas 33.6 36.15 deficit. Wajir North improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. W. North 46.72 52.62 W. South 25.34 28.44 W. Tarbaj 43.6 49.26 W West 23.68 28.92 SAMBURU County The County and one of its sub counties improved from moderate 30.93 40.96 vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Samburu East S East 25.44 33.41 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Samburu West improved from normal to Above normal greenness. S. North 33.36 46.33 S. West 45.04 53.33 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS 28th as at 24th (3-month) September October 50 Vegetation greenness above 2021 2021 normal GARISSA County The county and all its Sub counties remained stable at Moderate 28.73 32.7 vegetation deficit band during the month under review with an Balambala 28.38 29.98 improvement in the VCI values. Daadab 26.73 32.74 30.93 34.97 Ijara 29.12 32.67 Lagdera 25.15 29.01 Dujis 29.79 32.33 ISIOLO County There was stability in the entire countys vegetation condition at 27.95 29.57 moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to the previous month I. North 28.29 30.22 of September with an improving trend in the VCI values. I. South 27.44 28.58 TANA County The county and two of its sub counties noted a stable trend at 38.4 37.83 RIVER normal vegetation greenness in the month of October. Bura Bura 36.12 34.62 deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Galole 36.96 36.7 Garsen 41.24 41.27 KAJIADO County The County and all its sub counties remained stable at above 55.02 56.18 normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month of 42.55 46.2 October. K. Central 53.79 56.05 K. East 42.6 41.66 K. North 56.98 56.15 K. South 61.28 62.23 K. West LAIKIPIA County The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness in 40 48.17 comparison to the previous month. Laikipia West remained 34.7 38.42 stable at above normal vegetation greenness while East and L. East North improved from moderate deficit to normal vegetation 31.25 40.23 L. North greenness. 58.94 67.72 L. West THARAKA County The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under 45 41.35 NITHI review. Chulga and Maara remained stable at above normal 55.7 53.19 vegetation greenness while Tharaka deteriorated from normal Chulga greenness to moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the 52.51 52.64 previous month of September. Maara 38.56 33.27 WEST County The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- 62.75 74.49 POKOT counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the 58.06 70.6 previous month with improving VCI values. Kacheliba Kapenguri 68.61 82.26 73.31 81.87 60.09 70.67 Sigor EMBU County The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the 47.41 47.86 month of October with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 55.59 56.56 and Runyenjes sub-counties remained stable at above normal Manyatta vegetation greenness with improving VCI values. 48.87 47.22 41.71 42.65 Runyenjes 56.17 59.02 COUNTY Sub VCI-3 VCI-3 Colou VCI Drought Category County month as month r values County The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness in the 48.05 46.65 month under review. Kitui central, South and West remained Kitui 62.82 63.71 stable at Above normal vegetation greenness while Mwingi Central, West and Kitui Rural remained stable at normal 53.31 49.34 Kitui East vegetation greenness. Kitui East deteriorated from above normal Mwingi greenness to normal vegetation greenness. 38.74 37.92 KITUI Central 28.9 27.94 41.12 46.72 35.83 37.53 Kitui Rural 56.11 53.47 Kitui South 51.15 57.19 Kitui West County The county and all its sub counties recorded above normal 60.5 62.1 vegetation greenness conditions which is a stable trend with an 72.81 82.18 improving trend for almost all of the VCI values when compared Kaiti to the previous month. 57.26 56.8 58.77 59.22 67.07 70.2 MAKUENI Kilome 53.64 54.69 Mbooni 72.01 77.14 County The vegetation greenness remained stable at normal vegetation 46.51 45.72 greenness across the county and eight of its Sub-counties. North 47.66 49.06 Imenti remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness Buuri during the month under review. 46.95 43.88 48.94 46.4 40.31 42.36 47.91 41.06 MERU South 55.16 50.49 47.38 51.71 44.07 41.75 48.02 47.18 County The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at above 52.37 53.4 normal vegetation greenness. Kieni deteriorated from above 52.33 49.21 normal to normal vegetation greenness while Mathira improved Kieni from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Tetu 49.7 54.66 remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Mathira Mukurwein 63.03 61.37 NYERI 51.56 60.5 52.62 64.48 Othaya 49.62 49.24 County The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable at 23.08 21.24 KILIFI moderate vegetation deficit and most of its sub counties recording 18.56 16.14 Moderate and severe vegetation deficit. Kilifi North and South Ganze deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation 18.63 15.74 Kaloleni deficit while Malindi deteriorated from severe to extreme 25.68 25.89 vegetation deficit during the month under review. Magarini 13.41 8.98 Malindi 26.65 18.6 18.28 11.26 Rabai 29.46 16.95 The county and all its sub-counties remained stable at moderate 23.68 22.88 vegetation deficit when compared to the previous month of 21.24 20.89 September. Kinango Lungalung 25.84 22.99 KWALE a 27.71 28.03 Matuga Msambwen 32.09 32.98 County The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit with 28.8 27.85 a decreasing trend in values. Lamu East remained stable at 47.13 41.36 normal vegetation greenness while Lamu West improved from LAMU Lamu East severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in 18.2 20.03 Lamu West comparison to previous month. VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS County The County and its sub-counties remained stable at above normal 56.6 54.63 TAITA vegetation greenness with most of the VCI values showing a TAVETA 56.5 54.25 decreasing trend in the month under review. Mwatate 59.48 60.43 54.19 51.06 Wundanyi 71.06 69.16 54.6 56.02 47.91 44.86 Emurua There was stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, 68.62 80.6 Dikirr in the County and four of its sub- counties. The VCI value for Narok East sub-county also remained stable at normal greenness 57.32 66.96 Kilgoris with a decreasing trend. Narok North deteriorated from above Narok- normal to normal vegetation greenness in the month under NAROK 54.71 49.79 North review. 56.6 54.12 53.35 58.8 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "December_2021.pdf": "December 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for November, 2021 During the month of November 2021, dry weather conditions were experienced over several parts of the ASALs. However, occasional rainfall was experienced over northern Wajir and Mandera. Isolated storms were also recorded over the Southeastern lowlands, Coastal of Makueni and Kilifi respectively. Mandera and Msabaha are the only stations that recorded above normal rainfall at 170.6 and 154.8, respectively. Moyale, Embu and Meru recorded near average rainfall at 82.3, 80.7 and 77.2 respectively. The distribution both in time and space Figure 1. November Rainfall performance was generally poor in most areas with most of the rainfall being experienced during the last week of November. Rainfall Forecast for December 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for December 2021 indicates that; During this period, warmer than average SSTs have also been observed along the equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean and near average SSTs over equatorial Western Indian Ocean indicating the existence of a neutral IOD. The forecast indicates that several parts of the ASALs are likely to experience below average rainfall during the month of December including; Turkana, Marsabit, West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera and Garissa. The Southeastern and coastal counties are however Figure 1. November Rainfall forecast likely to receive near to below average rainfall as depicted including; Kajiado, Narok, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale counties. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in November 2020 with that in November 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of November 2020 attributed to poor performance of rainfall in the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2020 and November 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) November 2020 November 2021 As at the end of November 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included; Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Wajir. The eight counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in November 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of November 2021 is summarized in Table At sub county level, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) recorded Extreme vegetation deficit. On the other hand, Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) recorded the low VCI values with the ten (10) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the current dry conditions. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (8) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) Severe vegetation (3) (11) deficit Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Moderate (8) (31) vegetation deficit Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, ,Dadaab) Kilifi Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir (Magarini) Kitui ( Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui- Rural, Kitui-South) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera( Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South, Mandera West) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru( Igembe North, Igembe South), Samburu (Samburu East) Taita Taveta( Voi, Mwatate)Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Eldas, Tarbaj) Normal vegetation (7) (24) greenness Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Samburu, Tharaka Nithi Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East), Nyeri (Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation (5) (39) greenness Above Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Turkana, West Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo normal Pokot North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia( Laikipia East, Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West)Tharaka Nithi (Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Turkana East, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot and Narok that reported fair pasture condition due to the moderate light showers received as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of two consecutive failed seasons and current Poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. The moderate rains received during the first week of December have not yet had impact on vegetation condition across ASALs counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, November 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Narok Baringo Laikipia Embu West Pokot Embu Narok Garissa Garissa Samburu Isiolo Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kajiado Turkana Kilifi Kilifi West Pokot Kitui Kitui Laikipia Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Nyeri Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3.The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, November 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Embu West Pokot Isiolo Embu West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Lamu Kitui Mandera Kitui Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Nyeri Lamu Nyeri Meru Tana River Makueni Tana River Narok Turkana Meru Turkana Samburu Wajir Narok Wajir Tharaka Nithi Samburu Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, November 2021 Milk Narok Kajiado Baringo Embu Baring Isiolo Production West Pokot Laikipia Embu Kitui Garissa Kilifi Makueni Samburu Garissa Meru Makueni Kwale Kwale Isiolo Samburu Narok Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Lamu Kitui Mandera Lamu Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Tana River Meru Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are stable as compared to the previous month but on a worsening trend owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However Lamu, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2021 Cattle Lamu Baringo Embu Baringo Garissa Prices Tharaka-Nithi Isiolo Garissa Embu Kajiado West-Pokot Kitui Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Taita-Taveta Kilifi Kitui Lamu Narok Laikipia Laikipia Meru Wajir Mandera Makueni Tana-River Makueni Marsabit Mandera Tharaka-Nithi Meru Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Narok Samburu Nyeri Tana-River Samburu Turkana Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of November, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly below average or close to LTA except in Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Tana River and West Pokot counties. The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of October 2021. Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2021 Goat Prices Laikipia Baringo Garissa Baringo Kajiado Makueni Embu Kajiado Isiolo Embu Kilifi Narok Kilifi Lamu Garissa Marsabit Tana River Kitui Mandera Isiolo Kitui Meru West Pokot Meru Marsabit Laikipia Nyeri Taita-Taveta Nyeri Lamu Makueni Tana River Samburu Mandera Tharaka- Narok Nithi Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka-Nithi Livestock Mortality During the reporting period, counties including Turkana, Garissa, Embu, Isiolo, Narok, Mandera and Marsabit reported livestock mortality as result of starvation and diseases. Table 7 showing Livestock Mortality County Cause of mortality Hot spots Embu Starvation and dehydration Kiambere and Evurore Garissa Dehydration and starvation Whole county Isiolo Dehydration and starvation Oldonyiro, Kinna, Sericho and Cherab wards Turkana Diseases,dehydration and starvation Pastoral areas of Turkana North, South and East Mandera Starvation and dehydration Pastoral areas of entire county Marsabit Vector borne blood parasites Entire county Narok Predation Parts of transmara October to December (OND) long rains season onset was late and thus planted crops did not germinate forcing farmers to replant again. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in November as compared to the previous month of October as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, November 2021 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Embu Baringo Kilifi Wajir Baringo Embu Garissa Lamu Garissa Kilifi Isiolo Makueni Isiolo Tana River Kajiado Meru Kajiado Kitui Narok Kitui Laikipia Samburu Laikipia Mandera Kwale Lamu Marsabit Makueni Nyeri Mandera Taita Taveta Marsabit Tana River Meru Tharaka Nithi Narok Turkana Nyeri Wajir Samburu West Pokot Taita Taveta WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 22 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a decrease in distance to household water source. The decrease in average distances to water points for households is due to the continuing rains in most of the counties. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, November 2021 Distance from Baringo Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Garissa Baringo households to Embu Mandera Kitui Embu main water Garissa Marsabit Laikipia Kajiado sources Isiolo Samburu Lamu Kilifi Kajiado Tharaka Makueni Nyeri Kilifi Nithi Meru Turkana Kitui Wajir Narok Laikipia Taita Taveta Lamu Tana River Makueni West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 10. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 99 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. The rains received during the first week of December have slightly improved water recharge however the livestock trekking distances remains above long term average. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, November 2021 Distance from Baringo Mandera Baringo Embu livestock grazing Embu Marsabit Garissa Kilifi area to main Garissa Tana River Isiolo Kitui water sources Isiolo Kajiado Wajir Kajiado Laikipia Kilifi Lamu Kitui Makueni Laikipia Meru Lamu Narok Makueni Nyeri Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Meru Tharaka Narok Nithi Samburu West Pokot Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA).The TOT is stable conditions in most counties. The increasing maize prices versus decreasing goat prices the reason behind below average terms of trade. Table 11.0: Terms of trade, November 2021 Terms of Garissa Baringo Baringo Garissa trade (ToT) Kilifi Embu Embu Kitui Makueni Isiolo Isiolo Laikipia Narok Kajiado Kajiado Lamu West Pokot Kitui Kilifi Mandera Laikipia Makueni Narok Lamu Marsabit Taita Taveta Mandera Meru Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Meru-North Samburu Kwale Nyeri Tana River Samburu Wajir Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has worsened in most counties. Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Tana River have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of Covid-19 pandemic. Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. There is no county that recorded an improvement in trend. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November2021 Baringo Embu Isiolo Embu Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Isiolo MUAC Mandera Laikipia Kitui Kilifi Kajiado Marsabit Lamu Makueni Laikipia Kitui Narok Meru Turkana Lamu Makueni Nyeri Kwale Wajir Narok Mandera Samburu West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Marsabit Tana River Tana River Meru Tharaka-Nithi Nyeri West-Pokot Samburu Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of November 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties; Embu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Taita-Taveta are in the alert drought phase; Two (2) counties including; Baringo and West-Pokot are in Normal drought phase whereas Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Turkana, Kwale and Tharaka-Nithi are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, Tana-River reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded stable trend while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor rains during this season. The rains received during the first week of December have not yet had positive impact on drought phase classification across ASAL counties. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, November 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal West Pokot Baringo Alert Makueni Kajiado Laikipia Alarm Tana-River Kitui Isiolo Wajir Lamu Marsabit Mandera Kilifi Garissa Tharaka-Nithi Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th November 2021 BARINGO County 76.48 69.16 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation Central 88.37 87.43 greenness in the month of November. Eldama 81.7 83.15 Mogotio 74.09 62.88 North 79.18 72.34 South 65.46 55.1 Tiaty 77.42 69.33 MANDERA County 47.3 34.18 The county and four of its sub counties deteriorated from normal greenness to Banissa 42.28 36.87 moderate vegetation deficit in the month of November. Banissa and Mandera M East 41.19 28.13 North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 43.11 30.35 M North 48.75 37.1 M South 52.5 34.11 M West 48.77 34.54 TURKANA County 54.82 56.03 There is stability in VCI for the county as all of its sub counties recorded Above T Central 65.27 59.46 Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the month of November. Turkana T. East 49.96 52.46 East improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness while T. Loima 65.39 78.63 Turkana North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. T. North 45.51 42.19 T. South 53.94 57.9 T. West 60.15 59.74 MARSABIT County 35.55 25 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded a moderate vegetation deficit Laisaimis 32.14 23.39 during the month of November which is a deteriorating trend as compared to Moyale 37.51 23.13 the previous month. Saku deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation N. Horr 36.14 25.78 greenness. Saku 50.8 36.14 WAJIR County 37.21 24.03 The County and four of its sub counties deteriorated from normal vegetation W East 40.89 26.96 greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November. Wajir W. Eldas 36.15 22 South and West worsened from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. W. North 52.62 34.76 W. South 28.44 18.63 W. Tarbaj 49.26 31.88 W West 28.92 17.56 SAMBURU County 40.96 39.15 The County and one of its sub counties remained stable at normal vegetation S East 33.41 28.13 greenness. Samburu East remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while S. North 46.33 47.63 Samburu West remained stable at normal greenness. S. West 53.33 54.95 GARISSA County 32.7 25.01 The county and all its Sub counties remained stable at Moderate vegetation Balambala 29.98 20.5 deficit band during the month under review with a decline in the VCI values. Daadab 32.74 25.69 Lagdera worsened from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. 34.97 25.83 Ijara 32.67 30.24 Lagdera 29.01 18.99 Dujis 32.33 22.07 ISIOLO County 29.57 18.51 The entire county and its sub-counties deteriorated from moderate to severe I. North 30.22 19.28 vegetation deficit during the month of November. I. South 28.58 17.34 TANA RIVER County 37.83 24.61 The county and all its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which Bura 34.62 22.19 was a decline from the previous month of October. Bura remained stable at Galole 36.7 23.73 moderate vegetation deficit. Garsen 41.27 27.21 KAJIADO County 56.18 44.79 The County and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal and normal K. Central 46.2 37.48 vegetation greenness during the month of November. The County, Kajiado East K. East 56.05 41.63 and South deteriorated form above normal to normal vegetation greenness. K. North 41.66 52.01 Kajiado North improved from normal to above normal greenness. K. South 56.15 42.18 K. West 62.23 52.22 LAIKIPIA County 48.17 46.71 The County and Laikipia North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness, L. East 38.42 50.1 while Laikipia West remained stable at above normal greenness. Laikipia East L. North 40.23 38.67 improved from moderate deficit to above normal vegetation greenness. L. West 67.72 60.13 THARAKA County 41.35 35.83 The county and Chuka recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month NITHI Chulga 53.19 49.07 of November. Maara remained stable at above normal greenness while Tharaka Maara 52.64 56.32 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Tharaka 33.27 24.29 WEST POKOT County 74.49 72.27 The vegetation greenness was above normal for all the sub-counties. This was a Kacheliba 70.6 69.2 notable stable trend in comparison to the previous month. Kapenguria 82.26 78.93 Pokot South 81.87 82.71 Sigor 70.67 66.08 EMBU County 47.86 46.99 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of Manyatta 56.56 55.72 November with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub- Mbeere North 47.22 45.83 counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with improving Mbeere South 42.65 41.31 VCI values. Runyenjes 59.02 61.06 County 46.65 29.68 The county and five of its sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit KITUI which was a decline as compared to the previous month of October. Kitui Central Kitui Central 63.71 45.22 and West deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness while Mwingi Kitui East 49.34 30.96 North deteriorated form moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Mwingi 37.92 22.59 Mwingi North 27.94 17.38 Mwingi West 46.72 33.76 Kitui Rural 37.53 24.96 Kitui South 53.47 33.79 Kitui West 57.19 39.62 County 62.1 44.59 The county and all its sub counties recorded normal and above normal Kaiti 82.18 66.58 vegetation greenness conditions which is a stable and deteriorating trend during Kibwezi East 56.8 39.61 the month of November. MAKUENI Kibwezi West 59.22 42.64 Kilome 70.2 49.82 Makueni 54.69 38.79 Mbooni 77.14 56.0 County 45.72 42.43 The county and seven of its sub-counties were at normal and above normal Buuri 49.06 51.23 vegetation greenness during the month under review. Igembe North and South Central Imenti 43.88 53.33 deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Igembe 46.4 35.14 Igembe North 42.36 28.94 Igembe South 41.06 26.7 North Imenti 50.49 55.99 South Imenti 51.71 60.66 Tigania East 41.75 40.31 Tigania West 47.18 44.2 County 53.4 56.82 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal NYERI Kieni 49.21 51.65 vegetation greenness. Tetu remained stable at normal greenness. Kieni Mathira 54.66 60.05 improved from normal to above normal greenness. Mukurweini 61.37 62.77 Town 60.5 69.13 Othaya 64.48 68.84 Tetu 49.24 47.6 County 21.24 10.17 The vegetation condition in the county and Magarini deteriorated from KILIFI Ganze 16.14 6.5 moderate to severe vegetation deficit. The rest of the sub-counties were at Kaloleni 15.74 7.48 extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Magarini 25.89 14.19 Malindi 8.98 1.7 Kilifi-North 18.6 9.93 Rabai 11.26 -0.48 Kilifi-South 16.95 -8.75 KWALE County 22.88 13.58 The county and all its sub-counties deteriorated from moderate to severe and Kinango 20.89 12.36 extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Lungalunga 22.99 15.97 Matuga 28.03 16.82 Msambweni 32.98 8.23 LAMU County 27.85 20.88 The County and Lamu East were at moderate vegetation deficit while Lamu Lamu East 41.36 28.41 West recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Lamu West 20.03 16.53 County 54.63 34.05 The County and its sub-counties and two of its sub-counties were at moderate TAITA TAVETA Mwatate 54.25 31.61 vegetation deficit during the month of November. Taveta and Wundanyi Taveta 60.43 39.87 deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. Voi 51.06 31.08 Wundanyi 69.16 48.39 County 56.02 56.72 NAROK Narok-East 44.86 42.22 There was stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in the County Emurua Dikirr 80.6 84.65 and four of its sub- counties. The VCI value for Narok East sub-county also Kilgoris 66.96 74.86 remained stable at normal greenness with a decreasing trend. Narok North Narok-North 49.79 52.28 deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness in the month Narok-South 54.12 50.6 under review. Narok-West 58.8 60.18 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside"
        },
        "DEWS_2022": {
            "January_2022.pdf": "January 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for December, 2021 The month of December marked the cessation of the October to December (OND) seasonal rainfall. An analysis of rainfall by Kenya Metrological Department (KMD) of up to 29th December 2021 indicates that enhanced rainfall (120) was experienced over the eastern sector of the country while depressed rainfall (25) was experienced over the western sector of the country. December was characterized by isolated severe storms over the South-eastern lowlands (Makueni, Kitui and Kajiado) and the Coastal strip (Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi and Tana River). The highest monthly total rainfall of 315.2 mm (200.7) was recorded in Meru station. The distribution both in time and space was fairly good over the eastern sector and poor over the western sector. Figure 1 shows the December Figure 1. December Rainfall performance 2021 rainfall performance (). Rainfall Forecast for January 2022 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for January 2022 indicates that; a few parts of the country will experience occasional rainfall during the first and second weeks of January and remain generally sunny and dry towards the end of the month. These include a few areas in; Southern Rift Valley (Narok), south eastern lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta) and parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Meru and Embu). Figure 2 portrays the expected rainfall pattern during January 2022. Figure 1. January Rainfall forecast The vegetation condition index in most of the ASAL counties was either severe or extreme deficit even for the coastal and eastern sector that received above average rainfall in the month of December. This is attributed to late onset and poor performance of rainfall in the month of November. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2020 with that in December 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of December 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2020 and December December 2020 December 2021 The month of December 2021 showed alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of November 2021.The deteriorating of vegetation condition was due to below average SONOND short rains. The following (2) counties Kilifi and Kwale county are in the Extreme vegetation deficit band. The following 17 sub counties; Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Magarini, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi- South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North) Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo South) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in dire need of humanitarian assistance. The following seven (7) counties including; Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Lamu, Tana River, Wajir and Marsabit are in severe vegetation deficit. The following Six (6) counties namely; Kajiado, Makueni, Mandera, Samburu, Taita taveta and Tharaka Nithi are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Five (5) counties namely; Embu, Laikipia, Meru, Narok and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Three (3) counties;- Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot, recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in December 2021 has deteriorated as compared to the same period the previous year, December 2020, figure 3 above. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (8) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) Severe (3) (11) vegetation Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) deficit Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Moderate (8) (31) vegetation Garissa, Kitui, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, ,Dadaab) Kilifi (Magarini) Kitui ( Kitui deficit Lamu, Mandera, East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui-Rural, Kitui-South) Kwale (Lungalunga, Marsabit, Taita Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera( Mandera East, Lafey, Taveta, Tana River, Mandera South, Mandera West) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru( Igembe North, Igembe South), Samburu (Samburu East) Taita Taveta( Voi, Mwatate)Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Eldas, Tarbaj) Normal (7) (24) vegetation Embu, Kajiado, Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) greenness Laikipia, Makueni, Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui Meru, Samburu, West) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East), Nyeri (Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation (5) (39) greenness Baringo, Narok, Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Above normal Nyeri, Turkana, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia( Laikipia East, Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West)Tharaka Nithi (Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Turkana East, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The pasture and browse condition in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally fair to poor except in Taita-Taveta that reported good browse condition attributed to the minimal OND rainfall showers, as shown in Table 2. Further, the pasture and browse condition are on worsening trend as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and poor rains experienced in OND across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, December 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Embu Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Kajiado Kwale Kitui Marsabit Kilifi Mandera Laikipia Turkana Kitui Marsabit Lamu Wajir Kwale Samburu Makueni Meru Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Narok Lamu Turkana Nyeri Makueni Meru Wajir Taita Taveta Narok West Pokot Tana River Nyeri Samburu Tana River Livestock body condition Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Taita-Taveta and Lamu which reported good body conditions as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long and short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. The livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, December 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Baringo Lamu Isiolo Embu Kwale Embu Taita Taveta Kwale Laikipia Kajiado Mandera Garissa Mandera Kilifi Marsabit Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Tana River Kilifi Samburu Lamu Turkana Kitui Tana River Makueni Wajir Laikipia Turkana Meru Makueni Wajir Narok Meru Nyeri Narok Tharaka Nithi West Nyeri Pokot Samburu Milk production Milk production was below average. However, some counties are on an improving while others are in a worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, December 2021 Milk Makueni Narok Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Production Tana River Embu Isiolo Laikipia Kwale Garissa Kajiado Marsabit Narok Isiolo Kilifi Samburu Turkana Kajiado Kitui Taita Taveta Wajir Kilifi Lamu West Pokot Kitui Makueni Kwale Mandera Laikipia Meru Mandera Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Meru Nithi Taita Taveta Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are on declining trend as compared to the last month mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5.The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Tana River, West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, December 2021 Cattle Tana River Baringo Embu Embu Baringo Kitui Prices Tharaka-Nithi Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Garissa Narok West-Pokot Lamu Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Kilifi Kilifi Lamu Isiolo Kitui Meru Makueni Taita-Taveta Laikipia Narok Mandera Wajir Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Marsabit Tana River Samburu Meru Tharaka-Nithi Taita-Taveta Nyeri Wajir Turkana Narok West-Pokot Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of December, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA except in Embu, Kilifi, Narok, Taita Taveta and West Pokot counties that recorded above LTA. The goat prices are declining as result of poor body condition and thus need for close monitoring. Table 6.0: Goat prices, December 2021 Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin Goat Prices Embu Makueni Baringo Embu Kitui Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Garissa Narok Tharaka-Nithi Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Kwale Taita-Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Meru Marsabit West Pokot Kitui Lamu Makueni Samburu Turkana Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Lamu Nyeri Tana River Mandera Tharaka-Nithi West Pokot Wajir Marsabit Livestock Mortality During the reporting period, Baringo,Turkana,Garissa,Isiolo,Kitui,Laikipia, Narok ,Mandera, Samburu and Marsabit counties reported livestock mortality as result of starvation and diseases as shown in table 7 below; Table 7 showing Livestock Mortality County Cause of mortality Hot spots Baringo Diseases Baringo North and Tiaty sub counties Garissa Dehydration and starvation Whole county Isiolo Dehydration and starvation Oldonyiro, Kinna, Sericho and Cherab wards Kitui East Coast Fever (ECF). Nzambani, Zombe and Kanyangi wards Anaplasmosis Laikipia Drought Mukogodo West, Sosian and Olmoran wards Turkana Starvation, dehydration and disease Pastoral and Fisheries sites like Kaeris, Kalokol and Kalapata Mandera Starvation and diseases Entire county Marsabit severe drought and livestock disease Entire county Narok Predation Ntuka and oldonyo Narasha Samburu Starvation, Diseases Entire county March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas however, land preparations and planting were ongoing in Kitui, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Embu (mbeere), and Taita taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale. Farmers have been advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in December as compared to the previous month of November as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and increasing as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0.Maize prices Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Tana Embu Baringo Laikipia Prices Embu Lamu River Kilifi Garissa Lamu Garissa Meru Tana River Isiolo Makueni Isiolo Nyeri Kajiado West Pokot Kitui Turkana Kitui Kwale Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Narok Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Samburu Wajir Taita-Taveta West Pokot Tharaka-Nithi WATER ACCESS Access to water for households Distances to household water points in 15 counties were above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a slight decrease in distance to household water source. The decrease in average distances to water points for households is due to the slight rains received during the month of December. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, December 2021 Distance from Embu Baringo Garissa Embu Baringo Turkana households to Kajiado Samburu Isiolo Garissa Kwale West Pokot main water Kilifi Tana River Kitui Isiolo Laikipia sources Kwale Makueni Kajiado Mandera Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Marsabit Lamu Kitui Narok Mandera Lamu Marsabit Makueni Meru Meru Narok Nyeri Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Tana River West Pokot Wajir Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas has improved across the counties. 97 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and worsening trend as shown in table 10.0. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, December 2021 Distance from Baringo Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Embu Laikipia Baringo livestock Embu Kitui Garissa Mandera Marsabit grazing area to Garissa Isiolo Narok main water Isiolo Kajiado Turkana sources Kajiado Kilifi West Pokot Kwale Kitui Laikipia Kwale Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Mandera Meru Marsabit Nyeri Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The below average TOT is as result of increasing maize prices compared to decreasing livestock prices(goat prices) as result of poor livestock body condition Table 11.0: Terms of trade, December 2021 Terms of Kilifi Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo trade (ToT) Kwale Embu Isiolo Makueni Kitui Makueni Garissa Kajiado Narok Laikipia Narok Isiolo Kilifi Samburu Lamu Tana-River Kajiado Kwale Taita-Taveta Marsabit Kitui Mandera Wajir Turkana Laikipia Meru West-Pokot Mandera Tana-River Marsabit Tharaka-Nithi Taita-Taveta Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC was stable in most counties. Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Samburu and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption, decline in terms of trade and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of Covid-19 pandemic. Kilifi, Narok, Samburu, Tharaka-Nithi, and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 12.0 that requires close monitoring. Kajiado, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri and Tana River counties recorded an improvement in trend Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), December2021 Baringo Embu Isiolo Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Makueni Embu Narok MUAC Mandera Laikipia Kwale Mandera Garissa Samburu Marsabit Lamu Makueni Meru Kitui Tharaka-nithi Narok Meru Tharaka-nithi Nyeri Kwale Turkana Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana Tana River Laikipia Tana River Wajir Lamu West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of December 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties; Embu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Tana-River, Tharaka-Nithi, Laikipia, Baringo, Kajiado, Narok and Samburu are in the alert drought phase. Two (2) counties; Makueni and West-Pokot are in in the normal drought phase, whereas Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu, Wajir, Isiolo, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana are at an alarm phase however Kitui recorded the recovery phase. During the month under review, eleven (11) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded stable trend while ten (10) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor rains received during this season. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, December 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Makueni West-Pokot Alert Embu (Mbeere) Laikipia Baringo Meru North Kajiado Nyeri (Kieni) Narok Taita-Taveta Samburu Alarm Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Lamu Mandera Wajir Marsabit Recovery Kitui Recommended Interventions Table 14 showing recommended interventions for scale up across various sectors Sector Interventions Counties Food and safety Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana, Wajir, nets targeting households which are currently food insecure as a Samburu, Garissa, Mandera and result of the prevailing drought stress Tana River Upscale cash transfer programs Livestock Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR. Baringo, Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Voluntary destocking Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Taita Upscale of livestock insurance programme Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Water Water trucking Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Water treatment drugs Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Purchase new water boozers Lamu, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Health and Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Baringo, nutrition Supply of essential drugs Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use (North), Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Supplementary Food (RUSF). Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Surge kit activation Turkana, Wajir, west Pokot SMART Survey to ascertain the level of malnutrition Agriculture Support household with water harvesting skills Embu, Baringo, Relief foodcash transfer Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Support expansion of area under irrigation Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri, Education Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding Makueni, Mandera, Meru (North), secondary schools Narok, Nyeri Timely provision of school meals Peace and security Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and Isiolo, Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, resource use agreements. Garissa, Tana River, West Pokot, Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone Lamu counties Support local peace building and conflict resolution mechanisms Coordination Update contingency plan Garissa, Kilifi Close monitoring of drought situation Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th December 2021 BARINGO County The entire county and three of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation 69.16 52.34 greenness which was a stable trend during the month of December. The rest of 87.43 74.64 the sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness as compared to the previous month of November. Eldama 83.15 76.47 Mogotio 62.88 41.92 North 72.34 56.36 South 55.1 41.44 Tiaty 69.33 49.37 MANDERA County The county and four of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit 34.18 24.19 during the month under review. Mandera East and South deteriorated from Banissa 36.87 33.79 moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month of December. M East 28.13 16.68 Lafey 30.35 20.25 M North 37.1 28.36 M South 34.11 19.65 M West 34.54 24.12 TURKANA County The county and almost all of its sub counties recorded Above Normal and normal 56.03 42.89 vegetation greenness in the month of December which was a decline for most T Central 59.46 49.32 areas. Turkana North deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. T. East 52.46 39.02 T. Loima 78.63 63.88 T. North 42.19 30.1 T. South 57.9 46.63 T. West 59.74 44.31 MARSABIT County The county and three of its sub-counties recorded a severe vegetation deficit 25 17.32 during the month of December which is a deteriorating trend as compared to the Laisaimis previous month. Saku deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. 23.39 16.48 Moyale 23.13 17.1 N. Horr 25.78 17.45 36.14 24.63 WAJIR County The County and five of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation 24.03 12.73 deficit during the month under review. Wajir North remained stable at moderate W East vegetation deficit. 26.96 13.26 W. Eldas 22 12.12 W. North 34.76 21.21 W. South 18.63 9.03 W. Tarbaj 31.88 16.47 W West 17.56 8.74 SAMBURU County The county was at moderate vegetation deficit while Samburu East deteriorated 39.15 29.05 from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Samburu North and West recorded S East normal vegetation greenness during the month of December. 28.13 18.92 S. North 47.63 37 S. West 54.95 42.99 GARISSA County The county and four of its Sub counties were at Severe vegetation deficit band 25.01 17.45 during the month under review. Lagdera worsened from severe to extreme Balambala vegetation deficit. Ijara remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 20.5 11.21 Daadab 25.69 16.77 25.83 19.11 Ijara 30.24 25.11 Lagdera 18.99 9.09 Dujis 22.07 13.53 ISIOLO County The county and Isiolo North recorded a severe vegetation deficit while Isiolo 18.51 10.28 South recorded Extreme vegetation deficit during the month of December. I. North 19.28 11.04 I. South 17.34 9.11 TANA RIVER County The county and two of its sub-counties were at severe vegetation deficit during 24.61 19.14 the month under review. Garsen remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 22.19 15.44 Galole 23.73 18.98 Garsen 27.21 22.38 KAJIADO County The County and three of its sub-counties recorded a moderate vegetation deficit 44.79 34.79 during the month under review. Kajiado North remained stable at above normal greenness while Kajiado West deteriorated from above normal to normal 37.48 28.29 K. Central vegetation greenness. 41.63 34.14 K. East 52.01 51.04 K. North 42.18 32.45 K. South 52.22 40.25 K. West LAIKIPIA County The County and two of its sub-counties remained stable at normal vegetation 46.71 35.35 greenness, while Laikipia North deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate 50.1 47.64 vegetation deficit during the month under review. L. East 38.67 29.45 L. North 60.13 40.47 L. West THARAKA County The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline when 35.83 29.54 NITHI compared to the previous month of November. Chuka and Maara remained stable at normal and Above normal vegetation greenness. Tharaka deteriorated from 49.07 45.75 Chuka moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. 56.32 62.5 Maara 24.29 12.9 Tharaka WEST County The vegetation greenness was above normal for all the sub-counties. This was a 72.27 56.91 POKOT notable stable trend in comparison to the previous month with declining VCI values. 69.2 50.44 Kacheliba 78.93 64.23 Kapenguria 82.71 77.55 Pokot South 66.08 50.31 Sigor EMBU County The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of 46.99 48.57 December with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub- counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with improving 55.72 63.82 Manyatta VCI values. 45.83 44.07 Mbeere North 41.31 41.94 Mbeere South Runyenjes 61.06 66.38 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 28th at 26th (3- Nov 2021 Dec 2021 month) 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit County The county and four of its sub-counties were at severe and extreme vegetation 29.68 19.03 deficit which was a decline when compared to the previous month of November. 45.22 22.93 The rest of the sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 30.96 16.15 Kitui East Mwingi 22.59 8.31 KITUI 17.38 8.48 Mwingi North Mwingi West 33.76 21.01 Kitui Rural 24.96 10.17 33.79 26.99 Kitui South 39.62 23.75 Kitui West County The county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit 44.59 29.99 during the month of December. Kaiti and mbooni deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. 66.58 43.03 Kaiti 39.61 26.21 Kibwezi East 42.64 32.14 Kibwezi West 49.82 34.42 MAKUENI Kilome 38.79 24.66 Makueni Mbooni 56.0 33.5 County The county and six of its sub-counties were at normal and above normal 42.43 41.62 vegetation greenness during the month under review. Igembe North remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Igembe Central deteriorated from 51.23 54.5 Buuri normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Igembe South deteriorated from moderate 53.33 54.5 to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Central Imenti Igembe 35.14 25.58 28.94 22.92 Igembe North MERU 26.7 12.83 Igembe South North Imenti 55.99 61.77 South Imenti 60.66 68.16 40.31 42.23 Tigania East 44.2 45.74 Tigania West County 56.82 52.15 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal NYERI 51.65 47.27 vegetation greenness. Tetu remained stable at normal greenness. Kieni Kieni deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness during the month of 60.05 50.57 December. Mathira 62.77 60.55 Mukurweini 69.13 65.67 68.84 66.17 Othaya 47.6 43.1 County The vegetation condition in the county and all its sub-counties was at extreme 10.17 2.15 vegetation deficit during the month under review. 6.5 -0.31 Ganze 7.48 1.68 Kaloleni 14.19 4.67 Magarini KILIFI Malindi 1.7 -4.45 Kilifi-North 9.93 5.02 -0.48 -5.27 Rabai Kilifi-South -8.75 -14.22 The county and all its sub-counties deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation 13.58 3.85 County deficit during the month under review. 12.36 5.32 Kinango KWALE Lungalunga 15.97 4.99 16.82 1.05 Matuga 8.23 -12.21 Msambweni County The County and its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the 20.88 13.47 month of December which was a deteriorating trend as compared to the 28.41 18.81 previous month of November. LAMU Lamu East 16.53 10.38 Lamu West County The County and two of its sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit during 34.05 22.22 TAITA TAVETA the month of December. Wundanyi remained stable at normal vegetation 31.61 20.78 Mwatate greenness while Voi deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe 39.87 26.39 deficit during the month under review. Taveta 31.08 19.71 Wundanyi 48.39 35.97 County 56.72 46.9 42.22 33.63 Narok-East 84.65 75.03 There was a decline in vegetation cover as the county and three of its sub-counties Emurua Dikirr deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr and Kilgoris 74.86 68.29 remained stable at above normal greenness during the month under review. Narok Kilgoris NAROK East deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the Narok-North 52.28 49.13 month of December. 50.6 40.32 Narok-South 60.18 45.44 Narok-West Table 16.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 16).The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "February_2022.pdf": "February 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of January 2022 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the country for most of the month. However, during the third week, moderate to heavy rainfall was experienced over several parts of the ASAL counties. Isolated storms were recorded during this period over a few areas in Northeastern. For instance, Buna rainfall station in Wajir County recorded 107.0mm of rainfall on 17th January, while Marsabit Meteorological station and Gurar rainfall station in Wajir recorded 89.8mm and 58.7mm Figure 1. January Rainfall performance respectively on the same day. Several meteorological stations recorded rainfall that was below 75 of their January-long term averages (depressed rainfall). Lodwar meteorological station recorded 720.5 of its monthly LTM. Rainfall Forecast for February 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for February 2022 indicates that; most parts of the ASAL counties will experience generally sunny and dry conditions throughout the month. North-western Region (Turkana, West Pokot, and Samburu): Sunny and dry conditions are expected to prevail in these areas. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 30C - 40C. North-eastern Region (Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, Mandera and Marsabit): These areas are likely to experience sunny and dry conditions. Maximum temperatures are Figure 1. February Rainfall forecast expected to range from 26C - 40C. The Coastal Strip (Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale): These areas are likely to experience generally dry conditions throughout the month. However, a few areas over the south coast are likely to experience light rainfall during the month. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 31C - 35C. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in January 2021 with that in January 2022. When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably worse and is attributed to poor performance of the rains. January 2021 January 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of January 2022 showed alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of December 2021.The deteriorating trend was due to below average SONOND short rains. The following 2 sub counties; Wajir (Eldas, Wajir West)) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in dire need of humanitarian assistance. The following three (3) including; Isiolo, Wajir and Marsabit is in Severe vegetation deficit. The following Nine (9) counties including; Baringo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Narok, Samburu, Turkana and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Four (4) counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Lamu and Taita Taveta recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Seven (7) counties including; Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in January 2022 has badly deteriorated as compared to the same period the previous year, January 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of December 2021 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) Eldas, Wajir-West Severe (3) (18) vegetation Isiolo Mogotio, Lagdera, Isiolo North, Rabai, Lungalunga, Matuga deficit Marsabit Msambweni, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South, Laisamis, North Horr, Samburu-East, Turkana North, Wajir- East, Wajir-North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj Moderate (9) (31) vegetation Baringo Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Balambala, Daadab, deficit Kilifi Isiolo South, Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-West, Ganze, Kwale Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Kilifi-South, Kinango, Laikipia Mandera Laikipia-North, Laikipia-West, Banissa, Mandera North, Narok Mandera West, Moyale, Saku, Narok-East, Narok-South, Samburu Narok-West, Samburu-North, Samburu-West, Turkana East, Turkana South, Turkana West, Kacheliba, Sigor Normal (4) (23) vegetation Garissa, Kajiado, Baringo Central, Kajiado-North, Kajiado-South, Magarini, greenness Lamu, Taita- Kitui-Central, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Kitui-Rural, Laikipia-East, Lamu East, Lamu West, Igembe North, Igembe South, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Bura, Tharaka, Turkana Central, Loima, Kapenguria Vegetation (7) (38) greenness Eldama Ravine, Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Above Embu Runyenjes, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Kajiado-East, Kitui East, normal Kitui Mwingi West, Kitui South, Kitui West, Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni, Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West, Emurua Dikirr, Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township, Wundanyi, Galole, Garsen, Chuka, Maara, West-Pokot South Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions except in Embu, Kilifi and Makueni which reported good conditions. Tana River, Meru and Kitui reported good browse conditions and fair conditions of pasture. This is due to the minimal trace OND rainfall showers, as shown in Table 2. The current browse condition is on a stable trend as compared to the previous month whereas the pasture conditions are deteriorating as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and little rains experienced in OND that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture, and slight regeneration of browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Embu Baringo Garissa Embu Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Kitui Makueni Mandera Kwale Kitui Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Lamu Samburu Lamu Tana River Samburu Meru Wajir Narok Meru Turkana Narok Nyeri Wajir Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Taita-Taveta and West Pokot which reported good body conditions. Most of the pastoral counties reported poor body conditions for cattle as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor temporal and spatial performance of the 2021 short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, January 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Taita Taveta Baringo Embu Taita Taveta Isiolo Garissa Kwale Isiolo West Pokot Kwale Kajiado Mandera Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Kajiado Mandera Kitui Turkana Kilifi Marsabit Lamu Wajir Kitui Samburu Makueni Laikipia Turkana Meru Lamu Wajir Narok Makueni Nyeri Meru Tana River Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, January 2022 Milk Makueni Garissa Baringo Garissa Lamu Baringo Production Tana River Narok Embu Kilifi Marsabit Embu Samburu Taita Taveta Isiolo Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Laikipia Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Narok Kwale Kitui Nyeri Makueni Lamu Samburu Mandera Kwale Tana River Meru Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Turkana Mandera West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of January are stable compared to the previous month. Declining trend in cattle prices were noted in Baringo, Isiolo, Narok, Marsabit, West Pokot and Narok owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Tana River, West Pokot, Isiolo, Nyeri, Kajiado and Tharaka Nithi reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, January 2022 Cattle Isiolo Embu Garissa Garissa Embu Baringo Prices Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Meru Isiolo Tana River Lamu Laikipia Kitui Nyeri Narok Nyeri Kitui Mandera Kilifi Samburu Marsabit Tharaka-Nithi Makueni Marsabit Lamu Taita-Taveta West- West-Pokot Taita- Meru Laikipia Tana River Pokot Taveta Narok Makueni Turkana Samburu Mandera Wajir Turkana Tharaka- Wajir Nithi Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly below LTA except in Narok, Embu and West Pokot counties. The goat prices are stable and on an Improving trend as compared to the previous month of December due to the minimal rainfall showers which enabled regeneration of browse. Table 6.0: Goat prices January 2022 Goat Embu Laikipia Baringo Garissa Baringo Embu Prices Narok Makueni Garissa Isiolo Lamu Tharaka- West Pokot Samburu Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Nithi Taita-Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Wajir Tharaka- Kilifi Kwale Marsabit West Pokot Nithi Kitui Kitui Turkana Kwale Laikipia Taita Taveta Lamu Narok Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Meru Meru Samburu Tana- Tana River River Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Baringo, Narok, Samburu, Mandera and Marsabit and it was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. In Turkana County the mortalities were due to hypothermia which was also a case in Marsabit. Narok reported an upward trend of livestock death resulting from predation. October to November (OND) short rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Kilifi and Meru however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta, Embu, Makueni, Nyeri as a result of the shadow downpour experienced. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in January as compared to the previous month of December. The few counties reporting improving trend is due to relief aid and imports from neighbouring countiescountry as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, January 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Garissa Lamu Garissa Embu Baringo Prices Embu Kajiado Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Isiolo Kilifi Lamu Kwale Kitui Kitui Kwale Wajir Laikipia Meru Laikipia Narok Makueni Samburu Makueni Nyeri Mandera Tana River Mandera Tana River Marsabit West Pokot Marsabit Turkana Narok Meru Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Turkana WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 15 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and increase in distance to household water source. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2022 Distance Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Garissa Baringo from Embu Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Isiolo Embu households Kilifi Lamu Lamu Kajiado Kilifi to main Kwale Tana River Narok Meru Kitui water Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Taita Taveta Makueni sources Makueni Wajir Turkana Tana River Mandera Mandera Wajir Marsabit Marsabit Samburu Meru Tharaka Nithi Narok West Pokot Taita Taveta Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is improving across most of the counties. 52 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and improving trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, January 2022 Distance from Baringo Isiolo Garissa Garissa Baringo Kajiado livestock Embu Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Embu Mandera grazing area to Kwale Meru Kitui Kilifi Kitui Marsabit main water Laikipia Lamu Kwale Meru Samburu sources Mandera Makueni Laikipia Taita Taveta West Pokot Marsabit Samburu Lamu Tharaka Narok Tana River Makueni Nithi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Narok Wajir Taita Taveta Nyeri Turkana Tana River Wajir Turkana Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is at a stable trend at as it is displaying improving and stable conditions in most counties. The stable trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable trend among ASALs. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, January 2022 Terms of Kajiado Embu Baringo Garissa Baringo Mandera trade Narok Kwale Garissa Isiolo Embu Tana-River (ToT) Samburu Tana-River Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka-Nithi Kilifi Laikipia Kitui West-Pokot Kitui Lamu Makueni Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Lamu Meru Narok Makueni Wajir Nyeri Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita-Taveta Meru Turkana Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has equally improved and deteriorated in the counties as compared to the previous month. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita- Taveta and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was mostly attributed to the continued minimal milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Narok, Samburu, Turkana and West Pokot counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2022 Baringo Garissa Isiolo Garissa Kilifi Baringo Mandera Embu Kajiado Embu Kwale Isiolo MUAC Marsabit Kilifi Kwale Isiolo Laikipia Kajiado Narok Kitui Makueni Makueni Lamu Kitui Nyeri Laikipia Meru Mandera Nyeri Narok Samburu Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Meru Taita-Taveta Samburu Taita-taveta Turkana Tharaka-Nithi Tana River Turkana Tana River Wajir Wajir West Pokot Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of January 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (13) counties; Kitui, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Garissa, Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Narok, Samburu and West- Pokot are in the alert drought phase two (3) counties; Embu, Makueni and Tana-River are in in the normal drought phase, whereas Kilifi, Turkana, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, and Wajir are at an alarm phase, while Tharaka-Nithi is in the recovery phase. During the month under review, seven (7) counties reported an improving trend, three (5) counties recorded stable trend while ten (11) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of no rains during this season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, January 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Tana-River Makueni Alert Kitui Garissa Baringo Meru-North Laikipia Kajiado Nyeri (Kieni) Kwale Taita-Taveta Lamu Narok Alarm Kilifi Turkana Isiolo Mandera Recovery Tharaka-Nithi Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th January 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS BARINGO County The entire county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate 52.34 28.64 vegetation deficit which was a decline from the previous month. 74.64 45.13 Eldama remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Eldama Mogotio recorded severe vegetation deficit while Central Baringo 76.47 54.24 deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Mogotio 41.92 16.5 56.36 29.96 41.44 22.95 Tiaty 49.37 25.74 MANDERA County The county and three of its sub counties recorded moderate 24.19 20.88 vegetation deficit during the month under review. Mandera East Banissa 33.79 31.87 and South remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Lafey M East deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. 16.68 12.47 Lafey 20.25 16.9 M North 28.36 26.33 M South 19.65 14.98 M West 24.12 20.29 TURKANA County The county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate 42.89 27.3 T Central vegetation deficit which was a decline as compared to the previous 49.32 40.03 month of December. Turkana Central remained stable at normal T. East 39.02 24.18 vegetation greenness while north deteriorated from moderate to T. Loima severe vegetation deficit. 63.88 41.05 T. North 30.1 17.37 T. South 46.63 32.21 T. West 44.31 26.06 MARSABIT County The county and two of its sub-counties recorded a severe 17.32 13.74 vegetation deficit during the month of January which is a Laisaimis 16.48 11.28 deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month. Saku remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Moyale Moyale 17.1 21.15 improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. N. Horr 17.45 12.81 24.63 21.79 WAJIR County The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme 12.73 13.94 vegetation deficit during the month under review with most W East 13.26 11.01 remaining stable. Wajir north deteriorated from moderate to severe W. Eldas 12.12 9.51 W. North 21.21 18.45 W. South 9.03 15.84 W. Tarbaj 16.47 12.06 W West 8.74 9.72 SAMBURU County The county and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 29.05 20.49 vegetation deficit during the month under review with a S East 18.92 16.71 deteriorating trend. Samburu East remained stable at severe S. North 37 23.29 S. West 42.99 26.29 GARISSA County The county and all its sub-counties improved in the vegetation 17.45 40.85 condition during the month under review. Balambala 11.21 22.67 Daadab 16.77 31.64 19.11 55.52 Ijara 25.11 52.87 Lagdera 9.09 10.05 Dujis 13.53 60.52 ISIOLO County The county and one of its sub-counties remained stable at severe 10.28 17.03 vegetation deficit. Isiolo South improved from extreme to I. North 11.04 11.25 moderate vegetation deficit. I. South 9.11 25.86 TANA County The county and two of its sub-counties recorded above normal 19.14 51.33 RIVER vegetation greenness. Bura improved from severe vegetation Bura 15.44 41.13 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Galole 18.98 56.21 Garsen 22.38 56.93 KAJIADO County The County and three of its sub-counties recorded above normal 34.79 35.54 and normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado Central remained stable 28.29 26.68 at moderate vegetation deficit while West deteriorated from K. Central normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month 34.14 51.84 of January. K. East 51.04 44.74 K. North 32.45 44.83 K. South 40.25 25.78 K. West LAIKIPIA County The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 35.35 25.04 vegetation deficit. Laikipia East remained stable at normal 47.64 48.55 vegetation greenness. L. East 29.45 21.05 L. North 40.47 21.16 L. West THARAKA County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal and 29.54 55.95 NITHI normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which 45.75 66.75 was an improvement compared to the previous month. Chulga 62.5 75.63 Maara 12.9 45.59 Tharaka WEST County The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 56.91 31.63 POKOT vegetation deficit during the month under review which was a 50.44 24.93 decline from the previous month. Pokot South remained stable at Kacheliba above normal vegetation greenness while Kapenguria deteriorated 64.23 37.89 from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Kapenguria Pokot 77.55 53.54 50.31 25.58 Sigor EMBU County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 48.57 70.08 vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable 63.82 79.3 and improving trend. Manyatta 44.07 67.44 41.94 66.72 Runyenjes 66.38 78.22 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month month values County The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal and 19.03 54.79 22.93 47.3 was an improvement from the previous month. KITUI Kitui Central 16.15 56.65 Kitui East 8.31 46.75 8.48 48.95 21.01 52.98 10.17 42.64 Kitui Rural 26.99 60.12 Kitui South 23.75 53.83 Kitui West County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 29.99 56.52 vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an 43.03 60.49 improvement. Kaiti 26.21 55.24 32.14 58.73 34.42 56.86 MAKUENI Kilome 24.66 54.56 Mbooni 33.5 55.92 County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal and 41.62 57.06 54.5 60.13 was stable and improvement for most sub-counties. Buuri 54.5 76.93 Imenti 25.58 51.27 22.92 42.04 12.83 49.91 MERU South 61.77 66.12 North Imenti 68.16 74.16 South Imenti 42.23 53.05 Tigania East Tigania 45.74 63.32 County 52.15 52.64 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Tetu and Kieni improved from 47.27 51.41 normal to above normal vegetation greenness during the month Kieni 50.57 50.62 Mathira 60.55 62.69 Mukurweini NYERI 65.67 55.37 66.17 54.8 Othaya 43.1 50.37 County The vegetation condition in the county and five of its sub-counties 2.15 32.84 was at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review -0.31 33.51 which was improvement from extreme vegetation deficit. Ganze Magarini improved from extreme to normal greenness while Rabai 1.68 27.37 improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit. Kaloleni 4.67 35.6 Magarini -4.45 27.5 KILIFI Malindi 5.02 25.24 Kilifi-North -5.27 18.44 Rabai Kilifi-South -14.22 20.01 The county and all its sub-counties improved from extreme 3.85 22.41 vegetation deficit to moderate and severe vegetation deficit during 5.32 24.06 the month under review. Kinango 4.99 19.96 KWALE Lungalunga 1.05 19.44 Matuga -12.21 19.44 Msambweni County The County and its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation 13.47 42.8 greenness which was an improvement from severe vegetation 18.81 45.25 deficit. LAMU Lamu East 10.38 41.38 Lamu West County The County and all of its sub-counties recorded normal and above 22.22 42.58 normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement as 20.78 37.28 compared to the previous month of December. TAITA Mwatate TAVETA 26.39 36.11 19.71 45.46 Wundanyi 35.97 58.65 46.9 32.89 33.63 23.48 Narok-East Emurua 75.03 63.06 There was a decline in vegetation cover as the county and three of Dikirr its sub-counties deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate Kilgoris 68.29 49.79 vegetation deficit. Emurua Dikirr remained stable at above normal Narok- greenness during the month under review with decline in VCI NAROK North 49.13 41.3 values. 40.32 28.09 45.44 27.18 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "March_2022.pdf": "March 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of February 2022 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the country during the month. However, a few areas including South-eastern lowlands and parts of Northeast (Marsabit) received above average rainfall in comparison with the February Long Term Means (LTMs). Northwestern, the Coast, and most of the North-eastern regions recorded near to below average rainfall. An analysis of rainfall up to 24th February 2022 indicates that Narok received the highest monthly rainfall total of 228.9mm (340.4).Most stations recorded less than Figure 1. February Rainfall performance 100mm in Moyale, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu and Malindi. The month was characterized by a few isolated storms in different parts of the ASAL counties. Figure 1 shows the rainfall performance during the month under review. Rainfall Forecast for March 2022 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for March 2022 indicates that Counties in the North-Western Region including Turkana and Samburu will experience Sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall expected towards the end of the month. Counties in the North-Eastern Region including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo are expected to have occasional rainfall in few areas towards the end of the month. The onset of the long rains season is likely during the fourth week of Figure 2. March Rainfall forecast March to 1st week of April, 2022.Figure 2.0.indicates the March 2022 outlook. Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in February 2021 with that in February 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably worse. February 2021 February 2022 Figure 3.Maps Comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of February 2022 showed slight Improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of January 2022.The improvement is associated with the off-season rains that were received in the month of December, January and parts of February. The following 2 sub counties; Wajir (Eldas, Wajir East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of priority interventions. The following three counties (3); Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following Six (6) counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kwale, Laikipia, Samburu and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Four (4) counties including; Kajiado, Kilifi, Narok and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Ten (10) counties including; Embu, Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in February 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, February 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of February 2022 is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), February 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-East) Severe (3) (16) vegetation Mandera deficit Marsabit Baringo (Mogotio), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Wajir Laikipia (Laikipia-West, Laikipia-North), Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit (Laisamis), Samburu (Samburu-East), Wajir (Wajir-West, Wajir- North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate (6) (27) vegetation Baringo deficit Isiolo Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Baringo Central) Kwale Garissa (Balambala), Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-West), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi-North, South, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North), Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Narok (Narok-East), Samburu (Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana West), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal (4) (15) vegetation Kajiado, Baringo (Eldama Ravine), Garissa (Dadaab), Isiolo (Isiolo South), greenness Kilifi, Kajiado (Kajiado-South), Kilifi (Ganze, Malindi), Kwale Narok, (Msambweni), Laikipia (Laikipia-East), Narok (Kilgoris, Narok- Turkana North, Narok-South, Narok-West), Taita-Taveta (Taveta), Turkana (Turkana-South), West Pokot (West-Pokot South) Vegetation (10) (53) greenness Embu Embu(Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Above Garissa Garissa(Fafi, Ijara, Township),Kajiado(Kajiado-East, Kajiado- normal Kitui North), Kilifi(Magarini),Kitui(Kitui-East, Kitui -central, Mwingi Lamu West, Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui-Rural, Kitui South, Makueni Kitui West),Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West),Makueni( Kaiti, Meru Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Nyeri Mbooni),Meru(Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe Taita- North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Taveta Tigania West),Narok( Emurua Dikirr),Nyeri( Kieni, Mathira, Tana River Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Taita-Taveta(Mwatate, Tharaka Voi, Wundanyi),Tana River(Bura, Galole, Garsen), Nithi Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions except Kitui which reported good conditions. The 48 percent of ASALs recorded poor pasture condition while 30 percent of the ASAls recorded poor browse condition. The poor pasture and browse condition is as result of previous failed seasons and poor performance of the 2021 short rains as shown in Table 2. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, February 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Kitui Baringo Embu Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Garissa Kitui Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Kwale Mandera Lamu Nyeri Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Samburu Lamu Nyeri Meru Wajir Makueni Samburu Narok Meru Turkana Taita Taveta Narok Wajir Tana River Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Tana River Nithi Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable and fair to poor across most of ASAls. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Embu, Kajiado, Kitui and Taita taveta which reported good body conditions. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor temporal and spatial performance of the 2021 short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse as shown in table Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, February 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Garissa Embu Baringo Garissa Embu Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Kitui Marsabit Kilifi Kitui Lamu Makueni Taita Taveta Kwale Taita Taveta Mandera Meru Laikipia Marsabit Narok Lamu Samburu Nyeri Makueni West Pokot Tana River Meru Tharaka Nithi Narok Turkana Nyeri Wajir Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production was below average and generally below LTA and on worsening trend as compared to the previous months with 70 percent of ASALs recording milk production below average. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, February 2022 Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin Milk Makueni Garissa Baringo Embu Baringo Isiolo Productio Tana River Laikipia Embu Kajiado Garissa Kilifi n Tharaka Narok Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Kwale Nithi Taita Kajiado Makueni Lamu Mandera Taveta Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Kitui Meru Samburu Lamu Narok Tana River Kwale Taita Taveta Wajir Mandera Tharaka West Marsabit Nithi Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of February are stable compared to the previous month with 40 percent of the counties cattle prices below LTA as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, February 2022 Above LTA At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worsening LTA g Cattle Isiolo Embu Garissa Embu Garissa Baringo Prices Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Kitui Makueni Laikipia Kitui Kilifi Mandera Lamu Nyeri Mandera Meru Lamu Nyeri Tana River Taita-Taveta Marsabit Marsabit Makueni Tharaka-Nithi Nyeri Tharaka- Meru Narok Meru Wajir West-Pokot Nithi Narok Samburu Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Samburu Tana River Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were stable as compared to the previous month with Embu,Kajiado,Kilifi,Kitui,Laikipia,Meru ,Narok, Tana river, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot recording prices Above LTA while Baringo,Garissa,Lamu,Marsabit,Samburu,Turkana,Wajir and Nyeri(kieni) recording prices below LTA. Table 6.0: Goat prices February 2022 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Embu Isiolo Baringo Embu Baringo Marsabit Prices Kajiado Kwale Garissa Kajiado Garissa West Pokot Kilifi Makueni Lamu Kwale Isiolo Kitui Taita-Taveta Mandera Kitui Kilifi laikipia Marsabit Makueni Laikipia Meru Samburu Tharaka- Lamu Narok Turkana Nithi Meru Tana-River Wajir Tana River Mandera Tharaka- Nyeri Narok Nithi Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Taita Taveta Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Baringo, Narok, Samburu, Garissa, Isiolo,Turkana, Mandera and Marsabit which was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. In Turkana County the mortalities were due to hypothermia which was also a case in Marsabit. October to November (OND) short rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Kilifi and Meru however harvesting was ongoing in some counties like Embu, Meru, Kitui, Makueni and Kilifi (Mangoes, pineapples and water melons) while crops were at poding and tussling stage in Taita taveta.Generally there was crop failure in marginal agricultural areas due to poor performance of the 2021 short rains season. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most countie, the price of maize were above avarage but on stable trend as compared to the previous month of January with 70 percent of ASAls reporting above avarage maize prices. The few counties of Embu(mbeere) and Meru North recorded an improvement due to the ongoing harvesting activity in the counties as demonstrated in Table 7.The current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, February 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Garissa Lamu Embu Baringo Kwale Prices Embu Kajiado Meru Garissa Laikipia Isiolo Kilifi Isiolo Makueni Kitui Meru Kajiado Nyeri Kwale Tharaka Kilifi Wajir Laikipia Nithi Kitui Makueni Turkana Lamu Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Narok Narok Nyeri Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot West Pokot WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 56 percent of counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and decrease in distance to household water sources due to the rains received during the month of January and February. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, February 2022 Distance Baringo Embu Garissa Kajiado Embu Baringo from Kwale Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Garissa households Makueni Kajiado Narok Mandera Isiolo to main Mandera Kilifi Taita Kitui water Marsabit Kitui Taveta Kwale sources Meru Laikipia Tharaka Lamu Narok Lamu Nithi Makueni Nyeri Tharaka Marsabit Samburu Nithi Meru Taita Turkana Nyeri Taveta Samburu Tana River Tana River West Wajir Pokot West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas on worsening trend as compared to the previous month.65 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being on worsening trend attributed to poor recharge as result of poor performance of the season as shown in table Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, February 2022 Distance Baringo Kajiad Garissa Kajiado Embu Baringo from Embu o Kilifi Kwale Mandera Garissa livestock Isiolo Wajir Kitui Narok Taita Isiolo grazing area Kwale Lamu Wajir Taveta Kilifi to main Laikipia Tana River Kitui water Makueni Tharaka Laikipia sources Mandera Nithi Lamu Marsabit Makueni Meru Marsabit Narok Meru Nyeri Nyeri Samburu Samburu Taita Tana River Taveta Tharaka Nithi West West Pokot Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are stable but below the long-term average (LTA).78 percent of the counties ToT is below average. The below average ToT is as result of increasing maize price with decreasing livestock prices(goat).Table 10 indicates the current status of ToT across ASALS. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, February 2022 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Embu Baringo Mandera trade Lamu Narok Embu Kajiado Garissa Marsabit (ToT) Tana-River Garissa Kitui Isiolo Narok Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Wajir Kitui Meru Laikipia West-Pokot Kwale Tana-River Lamu Laikipia Tharaka- Makueni Makueni Nithi Nyeri Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita-Taveta Taita- Tharaka- Nithi West- Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC is stable as compared to the previous month. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita-Taveta and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition in the counties was mostly attributed to the continued minimal milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0 shows the children at risk of malnutrition during the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), February 2022 Baringo Embu Isiolo Kajiado Baringo Kwale Mandera Garissa Kajiado Kitui Embu Mandera MUAC Marsabit Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Kwale Makueni Isiolo Samburu Samburu Lamu Makueni Narok Kilifi Wajir Taita- Meru Turkana Lamu taveta Narok Meru Tana River Tharaka- Nyeri Nithi Taita- Turkana Taveta Wajir Tana River West- Tharaka- Pokot Nithi Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of February 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (10) counties; Kitui, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Tharaka Nithi, Garissa, Kwale, Laikipia, Kilifi, Lamu and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase two. Six (6) counties; Embu, Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita taveta and Tana-River are in the normal drought phase, whereas seven(7) counties including Baringo,Turkana, Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu,Marsabit, and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, Five (5) counties recorded stable trend while sixteen (16) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor performance of the previous seasons. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, February 2022 Drought Trend status Improving (2) Stable (5) Worsening (16) Normal Embu Makueni Kajiado Taita-Taveta Narok Tana-River Alert Kitui Meru-North Kilifi Kwale Tharaka-Nithi Lamu Nyeri (Kieni) West-Pokot Garissa Alarm Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th February 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS BARINGO County The entire county and four of its sub-counties recorded 28.64 25.84 moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when 45.13 31.91 compared with the previous month. Mogotio remained Eldama 54.24 42.22 stable at severe vegetation deficit while Eldama deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation Mogotio 16.5 16.22 greenness. 29.96 26.17 22.95 26.38 Tiaty 25.74 23.79 MANDERA County The county recorded deterioration in vegetation condition 20.88 16.17 from moderate to severe in the month under review. Banissa 31.87 23.49 M East 12.47 10.81 Lafey 16.9 13.49 M North 26.33 20.36 M South 14.98 11.95 M West 20.29 15.5 TURKANA County The county recorded an improvement in vegetation 27.3 37.31 T Central greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal. 40.03 63.64 Turkana central and Loima sub-counties recorded above T. East 24.18 33.01 normal. T. Loima 41.05 60.16 T. North 17.37 23.0 T. South 32.21 43.89 T. West 26.06 30.32 MARSABIT County The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit during the 13.74 18.92 month of February which is a stable trend as compared to Laisaimis 11.28 12.7 the previous month. North Horr improved from Severe to moderate Moyale 21.15 23.03 N. Horr 12.81 20.82 21.79 29.12 WAJIR County The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and 13.94 14.89 extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review W East 11.01 9.51 with most remaining stable. Wajir East deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. However, Wajir West W. Eldas 9.51 9.5 improved from Extreme to Severe vegetation deficit. W. North 18.45 16.84 W. South 15.84 19.16 W. Tarbaj 12.06 11.02 W West 9.72 11.4 SAMBURU County The county and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 20.49 21 vegetation deficit during the month under review with an S East 16.71 18.85 improving trend. Samburu East remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. S. North 23.29 23.3 S. West 26.29 21.85 GARISSA County The county improved from normal vegetation greenness to 40.85 52.18 Above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 22.67 33.57 Daadab 31.64 35.23 55.52 69.69 Ijara 52.87 70 Lagdera 10.05 15.14 Dujis 60.52 79.25 ISIOLO County The county improved from severe to moderate vegetation 17.03 28.05 deficit during the month under review while Isiolo south I. North 11.25 17.57 improved from moderate deficit to normal greenness. Isiolo north remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. I. South 25.86 44.07 TANA County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 51.33 62.11 RIVER vegetation greenness. Bura improved from normal 41.13 52.73 vegetation greenness to above normal greenness. Galole 56.21 65.54 Garsen 56.93 67.92 KAJIADO County The County and its sub-county of Kajiado south remained 35.54 41.55 stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado west and 26.68 34.4 central remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. K. Central Kajiado East remained stable at above normal greenness 51.84 56.28 K. East while north improved from normal to above normal greenness during the month of February. 44.74 51.11 K. North 44.83 47.37 K. South 25.78 34.3 K. West LAIKIPIA County The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was 25.04 23.47 a stable trend. Laikipia East remained stable at normal 48.55 46.95 L. East vegetation greenness. Laikipia North and West deteriorated L. North 21.05 19.63 from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month of February. 21.16 19.33 L. West THARAKA County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 55.95 67.14 NITHI vegetation greenness during the month under review which 66.75 73.54 was an improvement compared to the previous month of Chulga January. 75.63 75.53 Maara 45.59 62.04 Tharaka WEST County The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 31.63 28.53 POKOT vegetation deficit during the month under review which was 24.93 27.79 stable from the previous month. Pokot South and Kacheliba Kapenguria deteriorated from above normal and normal Kapenguri 37.89 31.25 vegetation greenness to normal greenness and moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Sigor deteriorated from 53.54 42.6 moderate to severe vegetation deficit. 25.58 19.26 Sigor EMBU County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 70.08 74.51 79.3 75.01 a stable and improving trend. Manyatta 67.44 72.93 66.72 74.93 Runyenjes 78.22 76.01 30th Jan 28th Feb month 2022 2022 ) 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit County The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above 54.79 68.65 normal vegetation greenness during the month of February 47.3 62.96 which was an improvement from the previous month. 56.65 73.64 Kitui East 46.75 63.9 KITUI 48.95 69.87 52.98 73.62 42.64 59.13 Kitui Rural 60.12 68.35 53.83 67.64 Kitui West County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 56.52 69.32 60.49 76.81 was an improvement with improving VCI values. Kaiti 55.24 68.02 58.73 68.87 MAKUENI 56.86 72.91 Kilome 54.56 66.53 Makueni Mbooni 55.92 71.58 MERU County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 57.06 61.75 vegetation greenness during the month of February which 60.13 57.76 was stable and improvement for most sub-counties. Buuri 76.93 71.79 51.27 63.98 42.04 51.31 49.91 72.73 66.12 63.61 74.16 70.25 53.05 54.7 63.32 66.54 County 52.64 59.2 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with most having improved 51.41 59.27 VCI values during the month of February. Kieni 50.62 59.03 Mathira Mukurwei 62.69 58.82 NYERI ni 55.37 60.87 54.8 58.29 Othaya 50.37 57.81 County The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub- 32.84 47.05 counties was at normal vegetation greenness during the 33.51 46.86 month under review.This was an improvement from Ganze moderate vegetation deficit. Magarini improved from 27.37 33.02 Kaloleni normal to above normal greenness while Rabai improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni, Kilifi 35.6 52.51 Magarini North and South remained stable at moderate vegetation KILIFI 27.5 42.59 deficit during the month under review. Malindi 25.24 33.86 18.44 21.86 Rabai 20.01 24.78 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate 22.41 29.71 County vegetation deficit during the month under review which was KWALE 24.06 30.2 Kinango an improvement. Msambweni improved from severe Lungalung vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. 19.96 26.29 19.44 30.07 Matuga Msambwe 19.44 39.68 County The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal 42.8 65.59 vegetation greenness which was an improvement from LAMU Lamu East 45.25 63.73 normal vegetation greenness. 41.38 66.67 County The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness 42.58 51.38 which was an improvement as compared to the previous Mwatate 37.28 51.9 month of January. TAITA 36.11 41.93 TAVETA 45.46 54.18 Wundanyi 58.65 63.34 County 32.89 40.69 There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the NAROK county and three of its sub-counties improved from 23.48 32.56 moderate vegetation deficit to normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr remained stable at above normal greenness during Emurua 63.06 63.18 the month under review. Kilgoris and Narok North remained Dikirr stable at normal vegetation greenness while Narok East Kilgoris 49.79 49.48 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 41.3 40.51 28.09 38.85 27.18 40.31 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "April_2022.pdf": "April 2022 Situation Overview The drought situation continues to worsen in sixteen (16) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and late onset of the 2022 long rains season. Seven (7) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Samburu, Isiolo, Baringo and Turkana are in Alarm drought phase while ten (10) counties including Garissa, Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru (North), Nyeri (Kieni) and West Pokot are in Alert drought phase. The remaining six (6) counties including Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Embu (Mbeere) and Tana River are in Normal drought phase. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of March 2022 Rainfall Performance The month of March marks the onset of the March-May (MAM) long-rains season in the country. However, the month was characterized by long dry spells over several parts of the ASAL counties. Sunny and dry conditions prevailed for most of the month over the Northeast, South Coast, and the Southeastern lowlands. Rainfall was, however, received over these areas during the fourth week of March. The Northwest and most of the Coastal Strip experienced sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. Depressed rainfall was recorded over most parts of the country. The North- western and North Coast regions have not yet realized their onset which was expected during the fourth week of March to first week of April. Figure 1. March 2022 Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast for April 2022 According to the Kenya Meteorological Service, the outlook for April 2022 indicates that the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and Southern Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands East of the Rift Valley including Nairobi County, and parts of the Northeast and southeastern lowlands are likely to experience near average rainfall. Parts of the Northeast, Southeastern Lowlands, and the Coastal region are likely to receive below-average. The forecast also indicates that several parts of the country are likely to experience near to below-average rainfall, especially during the first half of the month. Figure 1. April 2022 Rainfall forecast Vegetation condition (VCI) Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2021 with that of March 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is worse. March 2021 March 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of March 2022 showed slight improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of February 2022. The improvement is associated with light sporadic showers with some areas already experiencing early onset. Two sub counties; Wajir (Wajir East), Mandera (Mandera East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. Generally, four counties (4); Mandera, Laikipia, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit while five (5) counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kwale, Marsabit, and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence need for close monitoring and activation of response plans. Additionally, five (5) counties including; Kajiado, Garissa, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness while nine (9) counties namely; Embu, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Narok, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in March 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, March 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of March 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1.0. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) Wajir (Wajir-East), Mandera (Mandera East) Severe (4) (23) vegetation Laikipia deficit Mandera Baringo (Mogotio), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Kilifi (Rabai, Samburu Kilifi South), Laikipia (Laikipia-West, Laikipia-North), Mandera (Banissa, Wajir Mandera North, Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Samburu (Samburu-East, Samburu West, Samburu North), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-West, Wajir-North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate (5) (19) vegetation Baringo deficit Isiolo Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Baringo Central) Garissa Kwale (Balambala, Dadaab) Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi-North) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal (5) (21) vegetation Garissa, Baringo (Eldama-Ravine), Isiolo (Isiolo South), Kajiado (Kajiado- greenness Kajiado, Central, Kajiado- East, Kajiado- North, Kajiado-West, Kajiado- Kilifi, South), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini, Malindi), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Taita North, Tigania-East,) Narok (Narok-North, Narok-East), Taita- Taveta, Taveta (Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Tana River (Bura), Turkana Turkana (Turkana-west) West-Pokot (West-Pokot South) Vegetation (9) (50) greenness Embu Embu(Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Above normal Kitui Garissa(Fafi, Ijara, Township),Kitui(Kitui-East, Kitui -central, Mwingi Lamu West, Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui-Rural, Kitui South, Kitui Makueni West),Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West),Makueni( Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Meru Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni),Meru( Central Imenti, Igembe Narok Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Nyeri Tigania East, Tigania West),Narok( Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-South, Tana River Narok-West)Nyeri(Kieni,Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Tharaka Taita-Taveta(Mwatate)Tana River( Galole, Garsen),Tharaka Nithi Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor to fair conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to depressed rains received in March coupled with delayed onset and previous failed seasons. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Baringo Garissa Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Kwale Lamu Makueni Nyeri Laikipia Mandera Meru Samburu Lamu Marsabit Narok Turkana Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Wajir Meru Turkana Tana River West Pokot Narok Wajir Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Tana River Kitui Tharaka Nithi Embu Embu Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition has not yet improved as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as poor to fair conditions as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and late onset of the 2022 long rains season resulting to poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, March 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Baringo Embu Isiolo Garissa Mandera Garissa Laikipia Kajiado Marsabit Isiolo Lamu Kilifi Turkana Kilifi Mandera Kwale Kwale Marsabit Narok Laikipia Samburu Nyeri Lamu Turkana Tana River Narok West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Wajir Samburu Kitui Tana River Makueni Tharaka Nithi Meru North Wajir Taita Taveta West Pokot Meru North Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season, the insufficient and delayed onset of MAM period and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2022 Milk Makueni Garissa Baringo Kwale Garissa Baringo Production Tana River Narok Embu Kajiado Embu Isiolo Laikipia Isiolo Kajiado Lamu Kilifi Kilifi Makueni Kitui Kitui Marsabit Mandera Kwale Narok Meru Laikipia Taita Taveta Nyeri Lamu Tana River Samburu Mandera Turkana Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of March remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu, Tana-River, Nyeri and West-Pokot reported above normal prices due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, March 2022 Cattle Embu Baringo Laikipia Embu Garissa Baringo Prices Kajiado Garissa Makueni Makueni Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Isiolo Mandera Meru Kilifi Mandera Kitui Nyeri Marsabit Narok Kitui Wajir Lamu Taita-Taveta Meru Tana River Laikipia Turkana Tana River Tharaka-Nithi Narok Tharaka-Nithi Lamu Nyeri Samburu West-Pokot Marsabit West-Pokot Turkana Meru Wajir Nyeri Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly Above the LTA but below LTA in Garissa, Lamu, Marsabit, Wajir, and Nyeri. The goat prices are stable as compared to the previous month of February as shown in table 6. Table 6.0: Goat prices, March 2022 Goat Prices Embu Baringo Garissa Kajiado Baringo Kwale Kajiado Isiolo Lamu Makueni Embu Laikipia Kilifi Kwale Marsabit Marsabit Garissa Nyeri Kitui Mandera Wajir Isiolo laikipia Samburu Nyeri Kilifi Makueni Kitui Meru Lamu Narok Meru Taita-Taveta Mandera Tana-River Narok West Pokot Turkana Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Tana River, Wajir, Baringo, Kilifi and Meru North and it was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. Table 7.0. Livestock Mortality County Cattle Deaths Mortality SheepGoat Deaths Mortality Camel Deaths Mortality Overall Population Rate population Rate Population Rate Marsabit 509227 32,800 7.3 4,569,647 566,500 15.1 791,029 23,520 4.3 12.64 Samburu 285679 28,568 10.00 566,772 28,339 5.00 49,149 0 0.000 6.31 Turkana 2883158 1863 0.05 13,638,397 35,167 0.19 6,000,000 267 0.003 0.21 Mandera 1156034 46,345 4.00 6,732,577 41,223 0.60 1,641,001 7,976 0.486 0.32 Wajir 893040 114,785 12.85 5,422,324 102,780 1.89 1,184,083 13,389 3.079 3 Baringo 518982 29 0.0001 1,500,453 88 0.006 13451.18 0 0 0.01 In the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture and Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties, land preparation and planting is ongoing in 90 of those counties in anticipation of the MAM long rains which are yet to be experienced in majority of the counties. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize was at a stable and worsening trend in March as compared to the previous month. Its only Meru and Lamu reporting improving trend due to the harvests from Kajiado South and low demand in Lamu as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, March 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Lamu Baringo Garissa Prices Embu Meru Lamu Meru Embu Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Wajir Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Kwale Kitui Laikipia Kwale Makueni Makueni Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Narok Narok Nyeri Nyeri Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Turkana WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, in 12 counties, distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, the access to water for household is on worsening trend. The delayed long rains onset and the poor rainfall performance of the short rains season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2022 Distance Baringo Embu Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Baringo from Kwale Kajiado Isiolo Tana River Makueni Embu households Lamu Laikipia Kilifi Mandera Garissa to main Mandera Makueni Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo water Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Kilifi sources Meru Tharaka Nithi Nithi Kitui Narok Turkana Turkana Kwale Nyeri Lamu Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Meru Wajir Narok West Pokot Nyeri Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. In 73 percent of counties, livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at worsening and stable trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2022 Distance from Baringo Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Garissa Baringo livestock Embu Kilifi Makueni Mandera Embu grazing area to Isiolo Kitui Narok Marsabit Isiolo main water Kwale Tana River Samburu Kilifi sources Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Kitui Lamu Nithi Kwale Makueni Laikipia Mandera Lamu Marsabit Meru Meru Nyeri Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of a goat and maize in ASAL counties. In 73 percent of counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) and thus unfavorable to pastoralists. The TOT is on stable trend. The stable trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable trend among ASALs. Table 11.0: Terms of trade, March 2022 Terms of Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Kajiado Baringo Laikipia trade Lamu Makueni Embu Lamu Embu (Mbeere) Nyeri (Kieni) (ToT) Tana-River Narok (Mbeere) Makueni Garissa Turkana Garissa Marsabit Isiolo Wajir Isiolo Narok Kilifi West-Pokot Kitui Kitui Kwale Kwale Laikipia Mandera Mandera Meru Marsabit Samburu Meru-North Taita-Taveta Nyeri(Kieni) Tana-River Samburu Tharaka-Nithi Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has deteriorated in the counties of Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Tana River, Baringo, Nyeri and Wajir having MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the nine counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices and reduced food intake at household level. Table 12.0 shows the trends of MUAC Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2022 Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Embu Kitui Mandera Kilifi Isiolo Isiolo Garissa Makueni MUAC Marsabit Laikipia Kajiado Kwale Kajiado Marsabit Nyeri Kitui Narok Kilifi Turkana Samburu Kwale Laikipia Wajir Taita-taveta Lamu Lamu West Pokot Tana River Makueni Mandera Turkana Meru Meru Wajir Narok Nyeri West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of March 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties Tharaka-Nithi, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni) and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while six (6) counties Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita-Taveta and Tana-River are in the normal drought phase, whereas (7) counties; Baringo, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported an improving trend, four (4) counties recorded stable trend while eighteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of no rains during this season Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, March 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Makueni Kajiado Taita-Taveta Narok Tana-River Alert Tharaka-Nithi Garissa Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Meru North Nyeri (Kieni) Alarm Baringo Isiolo Mandera Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision and scale-up of food assistance and shock responsive cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements to save core breeding stock. Supportive veterinary treatments and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Active monitoring of transboundary livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of strategic water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized strategic boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks at strategic locations. Health and nutrition sector Support for integrated health outreaches, nutrition mass screening and referrals Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Support for point of use water treatment. Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Support incentives for school enrolment and retention. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) and cascading to sub-counties and sector technical working groups to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th March 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS BARINGO County The entire county and four of its sub-counties recorded moderate 25.84 23.08 vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the Central 24.65 31.91 previous month. Mogotio remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Eldama remained normal vegetation greenness. Eldama 42.22 36.43 Mogotio 16.22 16.21 26.17 24.19 26.38 26.44 Tiaty 23.79 20.22 MANDERA County The county recorded severe vegetation condition which is same 16.17 12.05 as of the previous month. Mandera East worsened to extreme Banissa 23.49 14.41 vegetation deficit M East 10.81 9.48 Lafey 13.49 10.08 M North 20.36 14.07 M South 11.95 11.51 M West 15.5 11.44 TURKANA County The county recorded an improvement in vegetation greenness 37.31 46.88 but still remained at normal vegetation condition. Turkana T Central 63.64 85.67 central, Turkana south and Loima sub-counties recorded above T. East 33.01 34.37 T. Loima normal. 60.16 74.72 T. North 23.0 31.65 T. South 43.89 54.86 T. West 30.32 38.27 MARSABIT County The county improved to a moderate vegetation condition during 18.92 21.42 the month of March. Moyale recorded Severe vegetation deficit Laisaimis 12.7 14.29 from moderate in February. Moyale 23.03 18.87 N. Horr 20.82 25.56 29.12 30.88 WAJIR County The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and 14.89 13.6 extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review with W East 9.51 8.54 majority remaining stable, However, Wajir Eldas improved from Extreme to Severe vegetation deficit. W. Eldas 9.5 10.31 W. North 16.84 15.27 W. South 19.16 16.35 W. Tarbaj 11.02 11.08 W West 11.4 11.61 SAMBURU County The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation 21 16.45 deficit during the month under review with a deteriorating trend. S East 18.85 13.87 S. North 23.3 19.1 S. West 21.85 17.81 2022 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness GARISSA County The county dropped from Above normal vegetation greenness to 52.18 46.35 Balambala 33.57 31.81 Daadab 35.23 27.97 69.69 57.93 Ijara 70 70.29 Lagdera 15.14 16.17 Dujis 79.25 62.8 ISIOLO County The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during 28.05 26.79 the month under review. Isiolo North remained at severe I. North 17.57 18.72 vegetation deficit. I. South 44.07 39.12 TANA RIVER County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 62.11 51.28 vegetation greenness except Bura sub-county which dropped 52.73 44.75 from above normal greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Galole 65.54 51.84 Garsen 67.92 56.47 KAJIADO County The County and all of its sub-county recorded normal vegetation 41.55 41.12 greenness. Kajiado remained stable at normal vegetation 34.4 38.01 condition whereas Kajiado West improved from moderate to K. Central normal vegetation deficit. 56.28 45.2 K. East 51.11 49.53 K. North 47.37 36.34 K. South 34.3 44.8 K. West LAIKIPIA County The County recorded severe vegetation deficit which was a 23.47 17.17 deteriorating trend. Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation 46.95 32.69 deficit. L. East 19.63 13.95 L. North 19.33 15.69 L. West THARAKA County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 67.14 58.8 NITHI vegetation greenness during the month under review which was 73.54 67.33 stable as compared to the previous month of February. Chulga 75.53 68.36 Maara 62.04 52.53 Tharaka WEST POKOT County The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 28.53 27.4 vegetation deficit during the month under review which was 27.79 29.47 stable when compared with the previous month of February. Kacheliba Pokot South remained at normal vegetation greenness. Sigor still 31.25 29.34 Kapenguria remained at severe vegetation deficit. 42.6 37.21 19.26 16.18 Sigor EMBU County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 74.51 63.92 vegetation greenness during the month under review which a 75.01 68.6 stable trend. Manyatta 72.93 61.84 74.93 62.1 Runyenjes 76.01 70.22 County The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal 68.65 54.57 vegetation greenness during the month of March which was 62.96 58.4 stable as compared to the previous month. Kitui Central 73.64 58.72 Kitui East 63.9 54.05 KITUI 69.87 59.14 73.62 66.9 Kitui Rural 59.13 53.07 68.35 50.21 Kitui South 67.64 55.85 Kitui West County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 69.32 59.34 vegetation greenness during the month under review which was 76.81 77.86 stable but with reduced VCI values. Kaiti 68.02 55.25 Kibwezi East Kibwezi 68.87 56.33 72.91 65.96 MAKUENI Kilome 66.53 55.17 Mbooni 71.58 68.67 County The county and six (6) of its sub-counties recorded above normal 61.75 51.5 vegetation greenness while 3 recorded normal vegetation 57.76 49.41 greenness during the month of March which was stable as Buuri compared to the previous month. 71.79 60.97 Imenti 63.98 51.45 51.31 39.14 MERU 72.73 63.2 63.61 53.6 North Imenti South Imenti 70.25 64.65 54.7 43.55 Tigania East 66.54 51.8 Tigania West County 59.2 61.01 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above 59.27 57.13 Kieni 59.03 65.61 Mathira 58.82 55.05 Mukurweini NYERI 60.87 73.62 58.29 67.23 Othaya 57.81 58.54 County The vegetation condition in the county and three of its sub- KILIFI 47.05 40.08 counties was at normal vegetation greenness during the month 46.86 36.26 under review. Rabai and Kilifi South deteriorated from moderate Ganze to severe vegetation deficit, with the other counties being stable 33.02 22.97 Kaloleni as compared to the previous month. 52.51 47.38 Magarini 42.59 36.7 Malindi 33.86 26.65 Kilifi-North 21.86 13.82 Rabai Kilifi-South 24.78 17.74 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded moderate 29.71 26.69 County vegetation deficit during the month under review which was a 30.2 26.56 Kinango stable trend. Msambweni deteriorated to moderate vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness during the previous KWALE Lungalunga 26.29 23.44 month. 30.07 30.68 Matuga 39.68 33.72 Msambweni County The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal 65.59 67.35 vegetation greenness which was an improvement in values from LAMU Lamu East 63.73 64.59 previous month. 66.67 68.94 Lamu West 2022 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness County The County recorded normal vegetation greenness which was a 51.38 47.5 decline as compared to the previous month of February. 51.9 60.98 Mwatate TAITA Taveta 41.93 42.69 TAVETA 54.18 45.39 Wundanyi 63.34 49.98 County 40.69 58.26 There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the county and NAROK three of its sub-counties improved from normal vegetation Narok-East 32.56 47.92 greenness to Above normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr remained Emurua stable at above normal greenness during the month under 63.18 66.28 Dikirr review. Narok North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Narok East improved from moderate vegetation 49.48 62.54 Kilgoris deficit to normal vegetation greenness. 40.51 47.13 38.85 59.27 40.31 64.55 Annex 2.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Annex 3.0. Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside",
            "May_2022.pdf": "May 2022 Situation Overview The drought situation continues to bite in seventeen (17) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and late onset of the 2022 long rains season. The number of people in need of assistance has increased from 3.1 million in February to 3.5 million currently. Eight (8) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Samburu, Isiolo, Baringo, Turkana and Laikipia are in Alarm drought phase while Nine (9) counties including Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu, Meru (North), Nyeri (Kieni) and West Pokot are in Alert drought phase. The remaining five (5) counties including Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita Taveta, and Embu (Mbeere) are in Normal drought phase. While one county, Tharaka Nithi, is in recovery phase. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance April marks the peak of the Long Rains (March-April- May) season. However, depressed rainfall was received over several parts of the ASAL counties with most of the counties receiving between 10-50 percent of normal rains with exception of parts of Makueni, Kajiado, Narok, Baringo, West Pokot, Kwale, Marsabit and Mandera receiving between 50-75 percent of normal rains. The rains were characterized by poor distribution in duration and geography. Figure 1. April 2022 Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast for May 2022 The forecast indicates that North-western Region (Turkana, West Pokot, and Samburu): The first half of the month is likely to be characterized by near to slightly above average rainfall. North-eastern Region (Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo): Occasional rainfall is expected at the beginning of the month. The rainfall is however likely to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to an end. South-eastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Tana River and Taita Taveta): Occasional rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. Figure 1. May 2022 Rainfall forecast It is however expected to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to an end. The Coastal Strip (Mombasa, Parts of Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale): is expected to receive occasional rainfall in May. Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in April 2021 with that in April 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is worse. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of April 2022 showed deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of March 2022. The deterioration is associated with the late onset of long rains of 2022 in most of the ASAL area. 5 sub counties; Kilifi (Rabai, Kilifi-South) Laikipia (Laikipia-North), Mandera (Mandera East) Samburu (Samburu East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. Seven counties (7); Mandera, Kwale, Isiolo, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following six (6) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kitui, Kilifi, Tana- River, and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. Six (6) counties including; Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness while four (4) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Nyeri, Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in April 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, April 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of April 2022 is provided in Table 13. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (5) Kilifi (Rabai, Kilifi South) Laikipia (Laikipia North), Mandera (Mandera East) Samburu (Samburu East) Severe (7) (25) vegetation Kwale deficit Laikipia Baringo (Baringo-Central, Tiaty, Mogotio), Garissa Isiolo (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Mandera Kilifi North), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga) Laikipia Marsabit (Laikipia-West) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North, Samburu Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit Wajir (Laisamis), Samburu (Samburu West, Samburu North), Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir-West, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate (6) (28) vegetation Baringo Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Eldama ravine) deficit Garissa Garissa (Balambala, Dadaab) Isiolo (Isiolo-South) Kilifi Kitui (Magarini, Malindi) Kitui (Kitui-East, Mwingi Central, Kitui South) Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia Tana-river (Laikipia East) Marsabit (North Horr, Moyale, Saku), Meru (Igembe North,) Taita-Taveta (Voi) Tana River (Bura, Galole) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana-West) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal (6) (28) vegetation Kajiado Embu (Mbeere-South) Garissa (Fafi, Township) greenness Makueni Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado- East, Kajiado- North, Kajiado-West, Kajiado-South) Kitui (, Kitui -central, Mwingi West, Mwingi North, Kitui-Rural, Kitui West), Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Makueni,) Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Mukurweini) Taita-Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi), Tana River (Garsen), West-Pokot (West-Pokot South) Vegetation (4) (27) greenness Embu Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Runyenjes) Garissa Above Lamu (Ijara,) Lamu (Lamu West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kilome, normal Narok Mbooni) Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti,), Narok Nyeri (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-South, Narok-East, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Taita-Taveta (Mwatate) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor to fair conditions while browse was at fair condition in most counties as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to depressed rains received in the ongoing MAM season coupled with delayed onset and previous failed seasons. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Baringo Embu Makueni Isiolo Garissa Isiolo Garissa Narok Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Kajiado Kwale Kitui Lamu Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Kwale Lamu Meru Marsabit Laikipia Mandera Taita Taveta Turkana Meru Marsabit Tana River Samburu Samburu Tharaka Taita Taveta Turkana Nithi Tana River Wajir Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition has worsened as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties have deteriorated from fair to poor livestock body condition. Conversely though, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita Taveta reported good body conditions as shown in Table 3. The poor to fair condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and the minimal downpours of the MAM long rains season resulting to poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Makueni Baringo Embu Kajiado Isiolo Garissa Taita Taveta Isiolo Garissa Makueni Laikipia Kajiado Mandera Kilifi Taita Taveta Lamu Kilifi Marsabit Kitui Mandera Kitui Turkana Kwale Marsabit Kwale Laikipia Samburu Meru North Lamu Turkana Narok Meru North West Tana River Narok Pokot Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Wajir Samburu Milk production Milk production was below average but generally on a stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season, the insufficient and delayed onset of MAM period and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year although Kwale, Makueni, Marsabit, Narok and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2022 Milk Garissa Narok Baringo Kwale Garissa Baringo Productio Makueni Tana River Embu Makueni Kajiado Embu n Tharaka Isiolo Marsabit Kitui Isiolo Nithi Kajiado Narok Lamu Kilifi Kilifi Tharaka Samburu Laikipia Kitui Nithi Taita Mandera Kwale Taveta Meru Laikipia Tana River Nyeri Lamu Turkana Mandera Wajir Marsabit West Meru Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of April remained stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. However, the current cattle prices are below long-term average in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. In contrast, Embu Kajiado, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Tana-River, Tharaka Nithi and West-Pokot reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Four counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties did report a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2022 Cattle Kajiado Garissa Baringo Isiolo Garissa Baringo Prices Lamu Isiolo Kwale Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Meru Kitui Laikipia Meru Kilifi Mandera Mandera Narok Makueni Wajir Embu Samburu Marsabit Tana River Nyeri Kitui Turkana Tharaka Lamu Nithi Taveta Makueni West Pokot Marsabit Embu Narok Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties ranged from above LTA and below LTA as compared to the previous month. The trend was however stable and improving owing to the minimal rainfall which resulting to regeneration of pasture and forage (albeit little) for goat consumption except for Isiolo county which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2022 Goat Kajiado Baringo Garissa Kwale Baringo Isiolo Prices Kitui Kilifi Isiolo Laikipia Garissa Kwale Lamu Mandera Marsabit Kajiado Laikipia Taita Taveta Marsabit Narok Kilifi Makueni West Pokot Nyeri Nyeri Kitui Meru Samburu Wajir Lamu Narok Turkana Makueni Tana River Wajir Mandera Tharaka Meru Nithi Samburu Tharaka Nithi Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Mandera, Baringo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Wajir, Turkana and West Pokot reported mortality as a result of starvation and diseases. The rains were also a major cause of mortality as the weak animals succumb to it in counties like Mandera, Turkana and Wajir. In the marginal agricultural areas of Coast Marginal Agriculture counties of Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu and Taita Taveta, the ongoing trend is of land preparation as most of the planted crops wilted due to high temperatures. Most of the recently planted crops were at germination stage. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing drought resistant crops. Maize prices The prices of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in April as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks. Garissa, Kilifi and Lamu are atclose to LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, April 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Garissa Baringo Kajiado Prices Embu Kilifi Garissa Kilifi Isiolo Lamu Isiolo Kitui Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Kitui Mandera Lamu Kwale Marsabit Makueni Laikipia Taita Taveta Meru Makueni Tana River Narok Mandera Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Samburu Meru Wajir West Pokot Narok Embu WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 16 counties registered distances to water for households as currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and decrease in distance to household water source. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2022 Distance Isiolo Baringo Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado from Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Kitui Kilifi households Kwale Kitui Makueni Kwale Lamu to main Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Laikipia Tana River water Lamu Tharaka Nyeri Mandera sources Marsabit Nithi Samburu Meru Mandera Tharaka Narok Meru Nithi Taita Embu Wajir Taveta Narok Embu Turkana Nyeri West Samburu Pokot Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is improving across most of the counties. 61 percent of counties recorded above LTA livestock trekking distance to water point as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2022 Distance Baringo Lamu Garissa Baringo Kitui Isiolo from Isiolo Sambur Kilifi Garissa Meru Kajiado livestock Kajiado u Kitui Laikipia Narok Kilifi grazing area Kwale Makueni Makueni Taita Kwale to main Laikipia Tharaka Mandera Taveta Lamu water Mandera Nithi Marsabit Tharaka Tana River sources Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Nithi Meru Samburu Turkana Narok Wajir Embu West Nyeri Pokot Taita Embu Terms of trade Teams of Trade values are below the long-term average (LTA) and thus unfavorable to pastoralists which is 74 percent of the counties. The TOT is on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month of March. The worsening trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has been increasing rapidly due to depletion of the stocks available among ASALs. Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, April 2022 Terms of Kajiado Lamu Baringo Nyeri (Kieni) Garissa Baringo trade (ToT) Kilifi Narok Garissa Wajir Mandera Isiolo Tana-River Isiolo Embu Marsabit Kajiado Tharaka- Kitui Taita-Taveta Kilifi Nithi Kwale Tana-River Kitui Embu Laikipia Kwale Makueni Lamu Marsabit Makueni Meru-North Meru Nyeri (Kieni) Narok Samburu Samburu Taita-Taveta Tharaka- Turkana Nithi Wajir Turkana West-Pokot West- Health and nutrition Most counties recorded a stable trend of MUAC, others showed improvement while a few have deteriorated as compared to the previous month,with. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the seven counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity and reduced food intake at household level. Kitui, Mandera, Meru, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Kwale and Narok counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2022 Baringo Kitui Garissa Garissa Baringo Kitui Mandera Laikipia Isiolo Makueni Isiolo Mandera MUAC Marsabit Taita Taveta Kajiado Narok Kajiado Meru Nyeri Embu Kwale Kwale Kilifi Samburu Samburu Lamu Narok Laikipia Tana River Tana River Makueni Lamu Tharaka- Turkana Meru Nyeri Nithi Wajir Narok Taita- Turkana Tharaka- Taveta Nithi Wajir West- West Pokot Pokot Embu Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of April 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties; Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni) and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while four (4) counties Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Narok, Makueni and Taita-Taveta are in the normal drought phase, whereas (8) counties; Baringo, Isiolo, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase with one (1) county that is Tharaka Nithi is on recovery phase. During the month under review, eight (8) counties reported an improving trend, six (6) counties recorded stable trend while eighteen (8) counties reported a worsening trend. The trend displayed is as result of the down pours experienced during the month of April. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, April 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado Makueni Narok Taita-Taveta Alert Garissa Meru North Kitui Kilifi Nyeri (Kieni) Kwale Lamu Tana-River West-Pokot Alarm Baringo Marsabit Isiolo Turkana Samburu Recovery Tharaka-Nithi Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th April 2022 BARINGO County 23.08 20.18 The entire county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate Central 24.65 17.26 vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous Eldama 36.43 32.51 month. Mogotio remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Mogotio 16.21 13.12 Baringo central and Tiaty deteriorated to stand at severe vegetation North 24.19 21.2 deficit in the month of April. South 26.44 22.1 Tiaty 20.22 18.86 MANDERA County 12.05 17.01 The county recorded severe vegetation condition which is same as of the Banissa 14.41 18.93 previous month whereas Mandera East displayed extreme vegetation M East 9.48 9.11 deficit which is stable as compared to the previous month. Lafey 10.08 12.39 M North 14.07 16.84 M South 11.51 19.87 M West 11.44 19.1 TURKANA County 46.88 40.7 The county recorded a decline in vegetation greenness but still remained T Central 85.67 76.66 at normal vegetation condition. Turkana central and Loima sub-counties T. East 34.37 28.16 recorded above normal whereas Turkana west dropped from normal T. Loima 74.72 64.02 vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. T. North 31.65 26.99 T. South 54.86 50.16 T. West 38.27 33.52 MARSABIT County 21.42 18.87 The county deteriorated to severe vegetation condition during the Laisaimis 14.29 11.92 month of April. Moyale 18.87 21.49 N. Horr 25.56 21.86 Saku 30.88 23.46 WAJIR County 13.6 14.76 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme W East 8.54 13.14 vegetation deficit during the month under review with majority W. Eldas 10.31 15.19 remaining stable, However, Wajir East improved from Extreme to Severe W. North 15.27 20.83 vegetation deficit and Wajir North recorded moderate vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit in March. W. South 16.35 12.72 W. Tarbaj 11.08 15.75 W West 11.61 12.27 SAMBURU County 16.45 11.73 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit S East 13.87 8.55 during the month under review with exception of Samburu East which is S. North 19.1 14.55 at extreme vegetation deficit. S. West 17.81 14.95 GARISSA County 46.35 31.18 The county dropped from normal vegetation greenness to moderate Balambala 31.81 20.98 vegetation deficit during the month under review. Daadab 27.97 20.08 57.93 35.88 Ijara 70.29 51.73 Lagdera 16.17 12.3 Dujis 62.8 36.96 ISIOLO County 26.79 17.11 The county dropped from moderate vegetation deficit to extreme I. North 18.72 13.99 vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. South 39.12 21.88 TANA RIVER County 51.28 34.8 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit Bura 44.75 29.17 except Garsen sub-county which is at normal vegetation greenness. Galole 51.84 34.37 Garsen 56.47 39.85 KAJIADO County 41.12 36.52 The County and all of its sub-county recorded normal vegetation K. Central 38.01 36.88 greenness. Kajiado remained stable at normal vegetation condition K. East 45.2 35.3 K. North 49.53 44.06 K. South 36.34 36.34 K. West 44.8 45.64 LAIKIPIA County 17.17 12.46 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a deteriorating L. East 32.69 23.48 trend. Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation deficit and Laikipia L. North 13.95 9.44 North is at extreme vegetation deficit as of this month. L. West 15.69 12.79 THARAKA County 58.8 44.03 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month NITHI Chuka 67.33 57.76 under review which was a deteriorating trend as compared to the Maara 68.36 62.83 previous month of March. Tharaka 52.53 32.85 WEST POKOT County 27.4 25.46 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation Kacheliba 29.47 26.61 deficit during the month under review which was stable when compared Kapenguria 29.34 26.89 with the previous month of March. Pokot South remained at normal Pokot South 37.21 35.49 vegetation greenness. Sigor still remained at severe vegetation deficit. Sigor 16.18 16.62 EMBU County 63.92 53.51 The county and all its sub-counties except Mbeere South recorded Manyatta 68.6 67.43 above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Mbeere which a stable trend. 61.84 52.17 Mbeere 62.1 47.26 Runyenjes 70.22 64.14 County 54.57 32.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of KITUI Kitui Central 58.4 43.93 April with all of its sub-counties displaying a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month of March. The situation of VCI in April Kitui East 58.72 33.69 has really worsened in the county with a huge margin. 54.05 34.01 Central 59.14 36.8 66.9 48.27 Kitui Rural 53.07 35.26 Kitui South 50.21 28.39 Kitui West 55.85 36.82 County 59.34 43.48 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month Kaiti 77.86 69.97 under review which was a worsening trend as compared to March. Kibwezi East 55.25 37.58 Kibwezi 56.33 37.9 MAKUENI West Kilome 65.96 56.02 Makueni 55.17 39.33 Mbooni 68.67 54.18 County 51.5 41.24 The county and six (6) of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Buuri 49.41 39.98 greenness while 2 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during Central the month of April with Igembe North recording moderate vegetation 60.97 57.32 Imenti deficit portraying a worsening trend for the county during this month Igembe under review. 51.45 36.17 MERU Central 39.14 24.45 63.2 44.37 North Imenti 53.6 49.44 South Imenti 64.65 63.71 Tigania East 43.55 38.46 Tigania West 51.8 40.13 County 61.01 55.86 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal NYERI Kieni 57.13 51.21 vegetation greenness except Mukurweini which recorded normal Mathira 65.61 60.07 vegetation greenness. Mukurweini 55.05 46.43 Town 73.62 52.54 Othaya 67.23 71.36 Tetu 58.54 65.94 KILIFI County 40.08 24.49 The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub-counties was Ganze 36.26 19.68 at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai Kaloleni 22.97 10.07 and Kilifi South deteriorated from severe vegetation deficit to extreme Magarini 47.38 31.77 vegetation deficit. Ganze and Kaloleni recorded severe vegetation deficit Malindi 36.7 23.51 which is a great decline in status as compared to the month of March. Kilifi-North 26.65 14.1 Rabai 13.82 3.85 Kilifi-South 17.74 8.35 KWALE County 26.69 18.55 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded a decline in vegetation Kinango 26.56 18.33 condition during the month under review which was a worsening trend. Lungalunga 23.44 15.51 The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit. Matuga 30.68 23.29 Msambweni 33.72 23.67 LAMU County 67.35 51.17 The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation Lamu East 64.59 49.86 greenness except Lamu East which is at normal vegetation greenness Lamu West 68.94 51.92 which is a decline in values from previous month. TAITA County 47.5 36.4 The County recorded normal vegetation greenness which was stable as TAVETA Mwatate 60.98 50.68 compared to the previous month of March. Taveta 42.69 35.86 Voi 45.39 32.23 Wundanyi 49.98 39.42 County 58.26 67.25 Narok-East 47.92 55.45 NAROK Emurua There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the county and all of 66.28 71.79 Dikirr its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Narok Kilgoris 62.54 73.39 East and North improved from normal to above normal vegetation Narok-North 47.13 51.19 greenness during this month of April. Narok-South 59.27 71.59 Narok-West 64.55 72.81 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "June_2022.pdf": "JUNE 2022 Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in nineteen (19) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and early cessation of the 2022 long rains season. The number of people in need of assistance has increased from 3.5 million in May to 4.1 million in June 2022. Six (6) counties namely Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo and Samburu are in Alarm drought phase while thirteen (13) counties including Kilifi, Turkana, West-Pokot, Kwale, Meru (North), Embu (Mbeere), Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Tharaka-Nithi and Tana-River are in Alert drought phase. The remaining four (4) counties including Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Makueni are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of May marked the cessation of the Long Rains season over most parts of the Country. In May 2022, several parts of the country experienced dry weather conditions except over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Central and South Rift Valley, Coastal region, and a few areas over Northeast and the Highlands East of the Rift Valley that experienced occasional rainfall. Analysis of May 2022 monthly rainfall from 1st to 29th indicates that most parts of the country experienced below-average rainfall Figure 1. May 2022 Rainfall performance except Wajir which experienced above- average rainfall at 129 for two days. Narok and Lamu experienced near average rainfall at 89.4 and 84.4 respectively. All the other stations recorded less than 75 of their May LTM (average) rainfall. The rainfall was characterized by isolated storms over parts of the country. On 1st May, Diff station in Wajir, Sericho in Isiolo and Kaibos in West Pokot recorded 68.0mm, 64.0mm, and 50.1mm respectively. Rainfall Forecast for June 2022 The forecast indicates that several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of June 2022. However, near to above-average rainfall is expected over parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and Central Rift Valley, while the Lake Victoria Basin and South Rift Valley is likely to receive near average rainfall. The Coastal strip is likely to experience near-average rainfall tending to below-average (depressed) rainfall. Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo) and Southeastern lowlands (Machakos, Makueni, Figure 1. June 2022 Rainfall forecast Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado) are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. However, high terrain areas in some counties in southeastern Kenya are likely to have chilly and foggy conditions on occasion. Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2021 with that in May 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation deteriorating. May 2021 May 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of May 2022 showed deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of April 2022.The deterioration is associated with the poor performance of the long rains of 2022. The following 3 sub counties; Garissa (Lagdera), Kilifi (Kaloleni) and Mandera (Mandera East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following Seven counties (7); Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Tana-River and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and activation of response plans. The following Five (5) counties including; Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following three (3) counties including; Embu, Nyeri and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, May 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of April 2022 is provided in Annex 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (3) Garissa (Lagdera), Kilifi (Kaloleni), Mandera (Mandera-East) Severe (7) (25) vegetation Isiolo Garissa (Balambala, Daadab, Township), Isiolo (Isiolo-North, Isiolo-South), Kilifi deficit Kilifi (Ganze, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga), Laikipia Kwale (Laikipia-North, Laikipia-West), Marsabit (Lafey, Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Meru (Igembe-North), Samburu (Samburu-East, Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-South, Wajir-West), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate (8) (41) vegetation Baringo Baringo(Baringo Central, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Mogotio), Garissa deficit Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East Kajiado South), Kilifi (Magarini, Kajiado Malindi),Kitui(Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Kitui Rural, Kitui South), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia(Laikipia-East), Makueni (Kibwezi-East, Kibwezi-West), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera-North, Mandera-South, Mandera- West), Marsabit (Moyale), Meru (Buuri), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi., Wundanyi),Tana River(Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana-East), Wajir (Wajir-East, Wajir-North,Tarbaj), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal (5) (20) vegetation Lamu Baringo (Eldama Ravine), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (Kajiado-North, Kajiado-West), greenness Makueni Meru Kitui (Kitui-Central, Mwingi-West, Kitui-West), Lamu (Lamu-East, Lamu-West), Tharaka-Nithi Makueni (Makueni), Meru (Igembe-Central, Tigania-East, Tigania-West), Nyeri Turkana (Kieni), Turkana (Turkana-Central, Loima, Turkana-North, Turkana-South, Turkana-West), West Pokot (West Pokot-South) Vegetation (3) (24) greenness Embu Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere-North, Mbeere-South, Runyenjes), Makueni (Kaiti, Above normal Narok Kilome, Mbooni), Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe-South, North-Imenti, South Nyeri Imenti), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-South, Narok-West), Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with slight improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to minimal showers of rains received during the May onset which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, May 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Baringo Lamu Isiolo Baringo Lamu Isiolo Embu Mandera Embu Makueni Laikipia Kajiado Marsabit Garissa Mandera Kilifi Nyeri Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Wajir Kilifi Nyeri Kwale Kitui Wajir Makueni Kwale Meru Laikipia Narok Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed no major improvement as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Makueni which reported good body condition while three counties (Kajiado, Lamu and West Pokot) reported good body conditions for the goat species as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and the minimal down pours of the MAM long rains season resulting to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, May 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Makueni Baringo Embu Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Garissa Lamu Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Kitui Marsabit Kitui West Pokot Mandera Kwale Kwale Marsabit Lamu Laikipia Nyeri Meru North Meru North Samburu Narok Narok Wajir Taita taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita taveta Turkana Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production was on a stable trend as compared to the previous month in most of the counties. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance for the previous OND rains season, the late onset and minimal showers during this month of May and persistent dry spell being experienced across the ASAL region. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2022 Milk Garissa Narok Baringo Baringo Makueni Garissa Production Makueni Tana River Embu Embu Narok Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Kajiado Samburu Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Turkana Kwale Kilifi Lamu Mandera Marsabit Kitui Nyeri Meru Kwale Tana River Taita Taveta Laikipia Wajir Tharaka Nithi Lamu West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of May remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Tana-River, Tharaka Nithi and West- Pokot reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Eight counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2022 Cattle Embu Baringo Kilifi Baringo Garissa Embu Kajiado Garissa Kwale Prices Kitui Kajiado Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Mandera Kwale Kilifi Lamu Lamu Marsabit Mandera Makueni Meru Makueni Samburu Marsabit Nyeri Narok Tharaka Nithi Samburu Laikipia Wajir Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were above LTA. The trend was however stable and improving owing to low number of goats available for sell in the market except for Embu, Makueni, Meru, Narok counties which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2022 Goat Prices Embu Isiolo Baringo Garissa Baringo Embu Kajiado Taita Taveta Garissa Kwale Isiolo Makueni Kilifi West Pokot Mandera Laikipia Kajiado Meru Kitui Marsabit Mandera Kilifi Narok Kwale Nyeri Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Samburu Tana River Lamu Lamu Turkana Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Makueni Wajir Turkana Samburu Meru Wajir Taita Taveta Narok West Pokot Livestock Mortality Drought conditions have persisted in ASAL counties following failed multiple successive rain seasons. Parts of some counties including Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo and Mandera have had at least 3 failed rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation deficit coupled with challenged access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and leading to mortality attributable to drought effects. The livestock mortalities reported in Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa. There is need to purposely support both commercial and emergency livestock offtake across the ASALs in the face of an elevated level of risk following the failed MAM 2022 season and the forecast poor OND 2022 season prospects. The livestock mortalities reported in Samburu (16.90), Mandera (11.30), Isiolo (8.01), Lamu (7.63), Marsabit (7.4) and Garissa (6.8). The reported livestock mortalities for Wajir County (5.33) are likely to increase as the drought situation assumes a worsening trend. Kajiado, Embu, Kwale, Kitui, Makueni, Narok, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi did not report any livestock mortalities attributable to drought related. The counties of Kilifi, West Pokot, Turkana, Laikipia, Meru, Tana River, Baringo, Nyeri and Meru reported livestock mortalities within county herds ranging from 0.01 in Baringo to 1.5 in Kilifi. In Meru and Nyeri, most mortalities are from immigrant livestock from Isiolo, Marsabit and Wajir Counties. The reported mortalities as updated by the counties as at the end of May 2022 are presented in the following table; Table: Reported Drought Related Livestock Mortalities N County Cattle Mortality SheepGoat Mortality Camel Mortality Overall o. Rate () Populati Deaths Ra Populatio Deaths Rate Populati Deat Rate on (No.) te n (No.) (No.) () on (No.) hs () (No.) () (No.) 1. Samburu 369,399 152,561 41. 1,477,906 112,501 7.61 54,063 967 1.79 16.90 2. Mandera 863,625 138,213 16. 4,579,722 558,752 12.2 1,016,79 32,5 3.1 11.30 0 0 20 3. Isiolo 274,055 19,000 6.9 2,209,532 24,800 1.1 307,011 30 0.01 8.01 4. Lamu 105,054 8,900 8.4 66,420 4,200 6.3 0 0 0 7.63 5. Marsabit 509227 33,105 6.5 4,569,647 580,300 12.7 791,029 23,7 3.0 7.4 6. Garissa 1,322,54 264,508 2.0 4,002,922 120,100 3.0 450,000 9,00 2.0 6.8 7. Wajir 893,040 114,785 12. 5,422,324 102,780 1.89 1,184,08 13,3 1.13 5.33 85 3 89 8. Kilifi 210,513 9,500 4.5 244,242 0 0 37,564 0 0 1.5 9. Nyeri 66,000 33 0.0 180,000 90 0.05 0 123 0.05 0.05 Nyeri 6,000 300 3.0 4,000 120 3.0 0 420 3.0 3.0 10. West 593032 4,621 1 1,214,285 924 0.08 10,500 0 0 0.3 Pokot 11. Turkana 3,143,44 1,332 0.0 13,559,89 29,589 0.22 949,649 185 0.02 0.17 2 4 2 12. Laikipia 68,800 4,500 0.0 211,920 9,800 0.05 0 0 0 0.1 13. Meru 291,156 72 0.0 369429 15 0 4026 0 0 0.1 North 2 14. Tana 475,398 20,825 0.0 1,097,208 33,450 0.03 67,950 546 0.01 0.03 River 4 15. Baringo 518,982 29 0 1,500,453 88 0 13,451 0 0 0.01 16. Kajiado 786,082 0 0 2,425,957 0 0 2,550 0 0 0 17. Embu 151739 0 0 280938 0 0 0 0 0 0 18. Kwale 243,862 0 0 456,221 0 0 0 0 0 0 19. Kitui 324,351 0 0 1,476,390 0 0 0 0 0 0 20. Makueni 251, 385 0 0 982,888 0 0 0 0 0 0 21. Narok 1,488,91 0 0 3,619,387 0 0 0 0 0 0 22. Taita 144,700 0 0 232,300 0 0 2,480 0 0 0 Taveta 23. Tharaka 162,984 0 0 297,634 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nithi TOTALS 13,012,8 772,284 5.9 50,481,61 1,577,50 3.12 4,891,14 80,8 1.65 3.55 92 3 7 9 6 80 Nyeri data on immigrant herds present in the county. A zero means there was no reportage and not necessarily absence of mortalities In the Coast Marginal Agricultural (CMA) counties, the crop condition is poor with most counties reporting withering of crops, with the surviving ones at podding and tussling stage. In the South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties there are different outputs but majorly its plant growth at knee high stage. In Kwale and Lamu planting and weeding is ongoing same as in Tharaka Nithi. In both SEMA and CMA, season failure has been experienced with less area planted and the lands abandoned or left open for grazing, this is attributed by stressed moisture in May and poor performance of the 2022 long rains season couple with late onset and early cessation and failure of the previous season. Maize prices In all counties, the price of maize was at a stable or worsening trend in April as compared to the previous month, these is as a result of the dry spell experienced in the countries from last year failure of OND rain seasons and the late onset of MAM rain seasons as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, May 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Lamu Garissa Baringo Prices Garissa Kajiado Embu Embu Lamu Isiolo Isiolo Mandera Kilifi Kajiado Nyeri Kitui Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kwale Kitui Wajir Laikipia Kwale Makueni Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Meru Mandera Narok Marsabit Samburu Narok Tana River Nyeri Turkana Samburu West Pokot WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is decrease and increase in distance to household water source. The poor rainfall performance of long rains is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2022 Distance Embu Kitui Baringo Baringo Kilifi Embu from Garissa Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kitui Meru Garissa households Isiolo Turkana Kwale Isiolo to main Kajiado Lamu Kajiado water Kilifi Mandera Makueni sources Kwale Narok Marsabit Lamu Samburu Nyeri Makueni Turkana Taita Taveta Mandera Wajir Tana River Marsabit West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 82 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, May 2022 Distance from Embu Wajir Baringo Baringo Isiolo Embu livestock Garissa Lamu Kwale Kitui Garissa grazing area to Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Lamu Marsabit Kajiado main water Kajiado Mandera Meru Kilifi sources Kilifi Narok Tana River Makueni Kitui Turkana Tharaka Nyeri Kwale West Pokot Nithi Samburu Makueni Wajir Taita Taveta Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long- term average (LTA). The TOT is at a worsening trend as it is displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as a result of stable goat prices while maize prices has increased and thus lowering the purchasing power among pastoralists. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2022 Terms of Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Garissa Lamu Baringo trade (ToT) Lamu Tana River Embu Mandera Nyeri Embu Garissa Marsabit Turkana Isiolo Isiolo Wajir Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Kwale Kitui Makueni Kwale Mandera Makueni Marsabit Meru Meru Narok Narok Samburu Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has either improved or deteriorated in a number of counties as compared to the previous month,with most counties recording a stable trend. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi and Wajir have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the nine counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices and reduced food intake at household level. Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2022 Baringo Kilifi Embu Garissa Baringo Kajiado Kajiado Taita Taveta Garissa Mandera Embu Makueni MUAC Kitui Isiolo Meru Garissa Tana River Mandera Kwale Narok Isiolo Tharaka- Marsabit Lamu Nyeri Kilifi Nithi Samburu Makueni Samburu Kitui Turkana Tana River Meru Wajir Kwale Tharaka Nithi Narok Lamu Wajir Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Taita-Taveta West-Pokot West Pokot Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of May 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties; Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kajiado, Kwale, Tana River, Taita-Taveta, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Turkana, Tharaka-Nithi and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while four (4) counties; Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Makueni are in the normal drought phase, whereas six (6) counties; Isiolo, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, five (5) counties reported an improving trend, Six (6) counties recorded stable trend while twelve (12) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, May 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Makueni Alert Kilifi Kwale Embu (Mbeere) Turkana Meru North Garissa West-Pokot Kajiado Nyeri (Kieni) Tharaka-Nithi Tana-River Alarm Mandera Isiolo Marsabit Laikipia Wajir Samburu Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Support for commercial and emergency livestock offtake Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Provision of fast-moving spare parts for strategic high convergence water facilities. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Support establishment of stabilization centres for acute malnutrition cases Support for mass screening and integrated health outreaches Support for food safety monitroing Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Water trucking to schools for drinking, hygiene and preparation of meals. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Support for cross-border dialogues for access to drought survival resources. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Support for internal sectoral drought risk management coordination. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th May 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS April May 2022 normal 2022 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness BARINGO County 20.18 33.01 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate Central 17.26 30.16 vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous Eldama 32.51 40.06 month. Eldama improved from moderate to normal vegetation Mogotio 13.12 27.18 greenness. North 21.2 29.39 South 22.1 34.33 Tiaty 18.86 34.4 MANDERA County 17.01 23.91 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is an Banissa 18.93 30.94 improvement from the previous month whereas Mandera East M East 9.11 9.77 Lafey 12.39 16.52 displayed extreme vegetation deficit which is stable as compared to the M North 16.84 26.72 previous month. M South 19.87 25.64 M West 19.1 24.94 TURKANA County 40.7 38.64 The county recorded a decline in vegetation greenness but still remained T Central 76.66 49.7 at normal vegetation condition during the month of May. T. East 28.16 26.37 T. Loima 64.02 42.41 T. North 26.99 36.58 T. South 50.16 36.83 T. West 33.52 44.75 MARSABIT County 18.87 15.4 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the Laisaimis 11.92 11.97 month of May. Moyale 21.49 22.54 N. Horr 21.86 15.54 Saku 23.46 15.13 WAJIR County 14.76 18.62 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and moderate W East 13.14 23.64 vegetation deficit during the month under review with majority W. Eldas 15.19 16.95 remaining stable. W. North 20.83 25.38 W. South 12.72 14.46 W. Tarbaj 15.75 25.18 W West 12.27 13.63 SAMBURU County 11.73 14.15 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit S East 8.55 10.96 during the month under review. S. North 14.55 16.86 S. West 14.95 17.84 GARISSA County 31.18 27.31 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the Balambala 20.98 10.69 month under review. Daadab 20.08 19.46 35.88 33.65 Ijara 51.73 47.83 Lagdera 12.3 6.92 Dujis 36.96 18.07 ISIOLO County 17.11 11.57 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit I. North 13.99 11.17 during the month under review. Isiolo South deteriorated to severe I. South vegetation deficit. 21.88 12.17 TANA RIVER County 34.8 24.19 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation Bura 29.17 20.02 deficit. Garsen sub-county deteriorated from normal to moderate Galole 34.37 22.11 vegetation deficit. Garsen 39.85 29.03 KAJIADO County 36.52 33.08 The County and three of its sub-county recorded moderate vegetation K. Central 36.88 30.86 deficit. Kajiado North and West remained stable at normal vegetation K. East 35.3 31.06 condition K. North 44.06 43.65 K. South 36.34 20.47 K. West 45.64 45.17 LAIKIPIA County 12.46 14.28 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a stable trend. L. East 23.48 23.04 Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation deficit and Laikipia North and L. North 9.44 10.29 West is at severe vegetation deficit as of this month. L. West 12.79 17.54 THARAKA County 44.03 42.07 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month NITHI Chuka 57.76 51.2 under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous Maara 62.83 57.21 month of April. Tharaka 32.85 33.8 WEST POKOT County 25.46 28.47 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation Kacheliba 26.61 28.38 deficit during the month under review which was stable when compared Kapenguria 26.89 32.59 with the previous month of April. Pokot South remained at normal Pokot South 35.49 39.41 vegetation greenness. Sigor still remained at severe vegetation deficit. Sigor 16.62 18.69 EMBU County 53.51 57.44 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Manyatta 67.43 61.62 greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. 52.17 60.54 47.26 54.31 Runyenjes 64.14 57.38 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 24th at 30th (3- April May month) 2022 2022 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit County 32.92 27.82 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of KITUI Kitui Central 43.93 35.98 May with all of its sub-counties displaying a deteriorating and stable trend as compared to the previous month of April. The situation of VCI Kitui East 33.69 25.59 in May has really worsened in the county with a huge margin. Mwingi 34.01 28.74 Central 36.8 34.75 48.27 47.19 Kitui Rural 35.26 32.15 Kitui South 28.39 22.42 Kitui West 36.82 36.43 County 43.48 41.79 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month Kaiti 69.97 71.76 under review which was a stable trend as compared to April. Kibwezi Kibwezi East 37.58 30.9 East and West deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit. Kibwezi 37.9 33.41 MAKUENI West Kilome 56.02 50.28 Makueni 39.33 46.31 Mbooni 54.18 58.55 County 41.24 38.87 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Buuri 39.98 34.11 greenness while 4 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during Central the month of May with Igembe North recording severe vegetation 57.32 57.51 Imenti deficit portraying a worsening trend for the county during this month Igembe under review. Buuri deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation 36.17 37.08 MERU Central deficit during the month under review. 24.45 17.22 44.37 51.57 North Imenti 49.44 50.8 South Imenti 63.71 59.72 Tigania East 38.46 35.9 Tigania West 40.13 36 County 55.86 53.68 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal NYERI Kieni 51.21 45.06 vegetation greenness except Kieni which recorded normal vegetation Mathira 60.07 60.91 greenness. Mukurweini improved from normal to above normal Mukurweini 46.43 65.84 vegetation greenness. Town 52.54 69.52 Othaya 71.36 65.69 Tetu 65.94 57.78 County 24.49 17.53 The vegetation condition in the county and four of its sub-counties was KILIFI Ganze 19.68 11.49 at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai and Kaloleni 10.07 9.65 Kilifi South improved from extreme vegetation deficit to severe Magarini 31.77 21.56 vegetation deficit. Kaloleni deteriorated from severe to extreme Malindi 23.51 20.54 vegetation deficit. Magarini and Malindi remained stable at moderate Kilifi-North 14.1 12.61 vegetation deficit. Rabai 3.85 12.71 Kilifi-South 8.35 14.48 KWALE County 18.55 17.15 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded stability in vegetation Kinango 18.33 13.12 condition during the month under review which was a worsening trend. Lungalunga 15.51 17.2 The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit. Matuga 23.29 30..54 Msambweni 23.67 30.76 LAMU County 51.17 44.1 The County and its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 49.86 45.93 Lamu West declined from above normal to normal vegetation Lamu West 51.92 43.05 greenness. TAITA County 36.4 23.95 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline TAVETA Mwatate 50.68 27.32 as compared to the previous month of April. Taveta 35.86 28.53 Voi 32.23 20.61 Wundanyi 39.42 29.15 County 67.25 60.23 Narok-East 55.45 57.47 NAROK Emurua 71.79 67.34 Dikirr There was stability in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub- Kilgoris 73.39 61.53 counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Narok-North 51.19 50.72 Narok-South 71.59 64.32 Narok-West 72.81 61.3 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "July_2022.pdf": "JULY 2022 Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. The number of counties in the Alarm stage of drought has increased from five (5) in May to eight (8) in June 2022. The counties in Alarm drought phase are Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Samburu and Isiolo while twelve (12) counties including Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Nyeri, Embu, Turkana, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and early cessation of the 2022 long rains season. Three counties namely Narok, West Pokot (except Sigor sub-county) and Baringo (except Tiaty sub-county) are in Normal drought phase. The number of people in need of assistance is 4.1 million up from 3.5 million in May 2022. Drought indicators June Rainfall Performance Several parts of ASALs remained relatively dry in June. Analysis of the June 2022 monthly rainfall from 1st to 28th June 2022 indicates that most parts of the ASALs experienced near to below average rainfall (less than 75mm of rainfall). The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received between 10mm to 50mm of rainfall totals. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties were also badly hit as they received very little rainfall in the range ( 10mm - 25mm). The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties received some off- season rainfall with parts of Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties receiving a moderate to above Figure 1. June 2022 Rainfall performance normal rainfall amounts. Lamu and northern Kilifi received between 100mm - 150mm of rainfall. The same situation was experienced in some parts of Agro pastoral cluster; parts of Narok west and southern parts of Baringo county receiving off-season rainfall that was moderate in the range of 76mm - 125mm of rainfall totals. Rainfall Forecast for July 2022 The July 2022 weather outlook indicates that several parts of the Arid and Semi Arid Lands will be generally dry and sunny. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa and Tana River counties will experience generally sun and dry weather conditions. The same will apply to some parts of the coastal counties with exemption of the coastal line stretch of Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu counties which are expected to receive NearAbove average rainfall. The Pastoral North West counties; especially Turkana county is expected to receive Near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. This is expected to stretch eastwards towards, Samburu county. Most of Agro-Pastoral counties are expected to experience sunny and dry weather conditions with the exemption of Narok and Baringo counties which are expected to receive Near-average rainfall with a slight tendency to Figure 1. July 2022 Rainfall forecast above average rainfall. Some parts of central ASAL counties of Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience periodically chilly and overcast skies with light rainfall. Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in June 2021 with that in June 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation deteriorating. June 2021 June 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of June 2022 indicated a slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of May 2022. The following 2 sub-counties in Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following six counties (6); Isiolo Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit and Samburu are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following seven (7) counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Taita-Taveta, Tana-River and Wajir are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following six (6) counties including; Baringo, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Turkana and West-Pokot recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following four (4) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Nyeri and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The vegetation condition in June 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, June 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) Severe (6) (22) vegetation Isiolo Garissa (Daadab, Township), Isiolo (Isiolo-North, Isiolo-South), Kajiado (Kajiado- deficit Kilifi south) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (Laikipia-North), Kwale Mandera (Mandera-East, Lafey) Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Meru Laikipia (Igembe-North), Samburu (Samburu-East), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi), Tana- River (Bura, Galole), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-West) Moderate (7) (35) vegetation Garissa Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East), Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Kilifi-North, deficit Kajiado Rabai, Kilifi-South), Kitui (Kitui-East, Mwingi-Central, Kitui-South), Kwale Kitui (Lungalunga), Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia-West), Makueni (Kibwezi-East, Mandera Kibwezi-West), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera-North ,Mandera-South, Mandera- Taita West), Marsabit (Moyale), Meru (Buuri, Tigania-East, Tigania-West), Samburu Taveta (Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Taita-Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi), Tana-River (Garsen), Turkana (Turkana-East, Turkana-South), Wajir (Wajir-East, Wajir- River North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Normal (6) (25) vegetation Baringo greenness Makueni Baringo (Baringo-Central, Mogotio, Baringo-North, Baringo-South, Tiaty), Meru Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado-West), Kitui (Kitui-Central, Mwingi-North, Tharaka- Mwingi-West, Kitui-Rural, Kitui West), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni) Makueni Nithi (Kilome), Meru (Igembe-Central, North-Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Township), Turkana Tharaka-Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana-Central, Loima, Turkana-North,), West- West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Pokot Vegetation (4) (28) greenness Embu Baringo (Eldama-ravine), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere-North, Mbeere-South, Above normal Narok Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (Kajiado-North), Lamu (Lamu-East, Lamu- Nyeri West), Makueni (Kaiti, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe-South, Lamu South Imenti), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua-Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok- South, Narok-West), Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Turkana-West) Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2022 Livestock Production Pasture and Browse Condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month probably due to early cessation of the MAM rainfall season which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for a long duration due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Pasture condition Browse condition Poor Baringo Kilifi Garissa Baringo Kwale Embu Tharaka Nithi Lamu Isiolo Embu Lamu Garissa Makueni Mandera Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Meru (North) Nyeri (Kieni) Kajiado Kajiado Narok Samburu Kilifi Kitui Tana River Kitui Kwale West Pokot Laikipia Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Meru (North) Nyeri (Kieni) Narok Turkana Turkana Wajir Wajir Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, June 2022 Livestock Body Condition The current livestock body condition displayed no major improvement as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor condition with exception of Kilifi which reported good body condition for cattle and Kajiado and Lamu for goats as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as a result of the poor performance of the 2022 long rains season, accompanied with early cessation which resulted to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, June 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Kilifi Embu Baringo Kajiado Isiolo Embu Mandera Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Isiolo Lamu Mandera Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Kitui Kitui Samburu Kwale Kwale Taita Taveta Lamu Laikipia Meru (North) Meru (North) Nyeri (Kieni) Nyeri (Kieni) Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana Tana River Milk Production Milk production was on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month in most of the counties. Some counties including; Baringo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, West Pokot and Meru recorded an improving trend. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance of the MAM rainfall season, the late onset and minimal showers during the month of May and persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year with Makueni County being the only county at above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table Table 4.0: Milk Production, June 2022 Milk Makueni Kwale Baringo Baringo Isiolo Embu Embu Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Production Garissa Kwale Makueni Kitui Isiolo Lamu Marsabit Wajir Kajiado Samburu Narok Tharaka Nithi Kilifi West Pokot Tana River Kitui Meru Laikipia Laikipia Mandera Lamu Nyeri Mandera Taita Taveta Narok NB: All the 270 sampled households in Turkana County reported that they did not milk their livestock since milk was barely enough for young calves, kids or lambs Cattle Prices In most counties, cattle prices in the month of June remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar period during a normal year. However, Tana-River, Narok, Lamu and Kwale reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Eight counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle Prices, June 2022 Cattle Tana River West Pokot Garissa Baringo Garissa Embu Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Kwale Isiolo Kitui Lamu Makueni Kilifi Lamu Kajiado Meru Kwale Kajiado Kitui Narok Kilifi Samburu Baringo Laikipia Turkana Laikipia Tana River Embu Mandera Wajir Makueni Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Mandera Meru Marsabit Taita Taveta West Pokot Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were above LTA. The trend was however stable and improving owing to low number of goats available for sell in the market except for Baringo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Turkana and Wajir counties which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, June 2022 Goat Embu Kitui Garissa Kitui Embu Baringo Kajiado Meru Mandera Isiolo Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Makueni Kilifi Marsabit Kwale Tharaka Nithi Samburu Kwale Turkana Laikipia Wajir Turkana Laikipia Wajir Lamu West Pokot Isiolo Lamu Makueni Taita Taveta Mandera Tana River Baringo Meru Livestock Mortality Drought conditions have persisted in ASAL counties following multiple failed successive rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to extreme vegetation deficit coupled with challenges of access to water. This has led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock, leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and mortalities in some pockets of Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, and Mandera. There is a need to purposely support both commercial and emergency livestock offtake across the ASALs in the face of an elevated level of risk following the failed MAM 2022 season and the forecast poor OND 2022 season prospects. Crop Production In the Coast Marginal Agricultural (CMA) counties, the crop condition is poor, with most counties reporting withering of crops with the surviving ones at podding and tussling stage. The majority of plant growth in the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties is knee-high. In Kwale and Lamu, planting and weeding are ongoing, just as in Tharaka Nithi. In both SEMA and CMA, season failure has been experienced with less area planted and the lands abandoned or left open for grazing. Maize Prices In all counties, the price of maize was on a stable or worsening trend in June as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA due to depletion of stocks. Table 7.0: Maize Prices, June 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Mandera Baringo Garissa Marsabit Embu Embu Tana River Isiolo Isiolo Nyeri Kilifi Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Kitui Kilifi Wajir Kwale Kitui Laikipia Kwale Makueni Laikipia Meru Makueni Narok Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Meru Turkana Narok West Pokot Nyeri Garissa Samburu Kajiado Taita-Taveta Lamu WATER ACCESS Access to Water for Households In comparison to the long-term average, distance to water for households in 20 counties is above the LTA. The distance between the household and the water source is generally increasing in comparison to the previous month. West-Pokot and Tana-River counties showed an improving trend. The trend in the distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, June 2022 Distance Turkana Baringo Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Laikipia Embu Wajir Kitui Tana River Lamu Garissa West Pokot Makueni Isiolo households Kwale Mandera Kajiado to main Laikipia Baringo Kilifi water Lamu Tharaka Nithi Kitui Makueni Kwale sources Marsabit Meru Meru Narok Narok Nyeri Nyeri Samburu Tana River Wajir Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Access to Water for Livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water sources from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 74 percent of counties were above LTA with most counties being on a worsening trend except for Samburu County, which is on an improving trend. This is illustrated in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, June 2022 Distance from Embu Garissa Baringo Samburu West Pokot Embu Isiolo Lamu Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Isiolo livestock Kajiado Narok Wajir Narok Kajiado grazing area Kilifi Lamu Kilifi to main water Kitui Garissa Kitui sources Kwale Baringo Kwale Laikipia Laikipia Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Tana River Turkana Turkana Wajir Terms of Trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is on a worsening trend as it is displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as a result of stable goat prices, while maize prices has worsened. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, June 2022 Terms of Lamu Kilifi Baringo Kwale Lamu Baringo Tana River Embu Narok Embu trade Garissa Tana River Isiolo (ToT) Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Kwale Kitui Mandera Meru Marsabit Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Garissa Turkana Mandera Wajir Marsabit Health and Nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, and Wajir have MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, and Turkana counties reported a worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2022 Baringo Laikipia Embu Garissa Samburu Baringo Kajiado Lamu Garissa Nyeri Isiolo Kajiado MUAC Kitui Kilifi Isiolo West Pokot Lamu Kitui Mandera Taita Taveta Kwale Turkana Marsabit Makueni Marsabit Makueni Kwale Tana River Mandera Samburu Meru Tharaka-Nithi Meru Tana River Narok Wajir Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Embu Samburu Wajir Turkana Garissa West-Pokot Kilifi Taita-Taveta Drought Phase Classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of June 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties including Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Nyeri, Embu, Turkana, Kwale and Kilifi are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo (except Tiaty sub-county), West Pokot (except Sigor sub-county) and Narok are in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Turkana, Samburu and Isiolo are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, three (3) counties reported an improving trend, six (6) counties recorded a stable trend, while fourteen (14) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, June 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Alert Kilifi Kwale Garissa Kitui Makueni Alarm Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Samburu Mandera Isiolo Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th June 2022 BARINGO County 33.01 45.38 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Normal vegetation Central 30.16 47.68 greenness which was an improvement when compared with the previous month of May. Eldama improved from Normal vegetation greenness Vegetation Eldama 40.06 53.21 greenness above normal. Mogotio 27.18 41.33 North 29.39 39.05 South 34.33 46.75 Tiaty 34.4 46.32 MANDERA County 23.91 24.11 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is stable when Banissa 30.94 31.82 compared with the previous month. Mandera East improved from extreme to M East 9.77 11.2 severe. Lafey 16.52 17.96 M North 26.72 28.42 M South 25.64 24.09 M West 24.94 23.6 TURKANA County 38.64 43.33 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but still remained at T Central 49.7 36.11 normal vegetation condition during the month June. T. East 26.37 28.78 T. Loima 42.41 39.83 T. North 36.58 45.68 T. South 36.83 31.5 T. West 44.75 62.78 MARSABIT County 15.4 15.22 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of Laisaimis 11.97 13.93 June. Moyale maintained at moderate vegetation greenness. Moyale 22.54 22.93 N. Horr 15.54 13.86 Saku 15.13 17.42 WAJIR County 18.62 23.26 The County and most of its sub counties recorded an improvement from severe W East 23.64 32.07 vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation greenness. W. Eldas 16.95 16.49 W. North 25.38 26.73 W. South 14.46 20.4 W. Tarbaj 25.18 31.43 W West 19.2 13.63 SAMBURU County 14.15 19.36 The county and one of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during S East 10.96 14.37 the month under review. Samburu west and north improved to moderate S. North 16.86 24.16 vegetation deficit. S. West 17.84 23.15 GARISSA County 27.31 29.58 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under Balambala 10.69 9.64 review. Balambala worsened to extreme vegetation deficit while Fafi and Ijara Daadab 19.46 19.16 showed improvement in vegetation condition. Fafi 37.42 33.65 Ijara 47.83 54.09 Lagdera 6.92 6.22 Dujis 18.07 14.93 ISIOLO County 11.57 11.22 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the I. North 11.17 11.29 month under review. I. South 11.11 12.17 TANA RIVER County 24.19 22.95 The county and all one of its subcounty recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Bura 20.02 19.5 Bura and Galole sub-counties deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to Galole 22.11 18.65 severe vegetation deficit. Garsen 29.03 28.57 KAJIADO County 33.08 31.02 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit. K. Central 30.86 24.28 Kajiado North recorded vegetation greenness above normal while Kajiado south K. East 31.06 25.89 recorded severe vegetation deficit. K. North 43.65 55.67 K. South 20.47 17.9 K. West 45.17 47.11 LAIKIPIA County 14.28 16.35 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a stable trend. Laikipia East L. East 23.04 22.08 and West was at moderate vegetation deficit. L. North 10.29 10.38 L. West 17.54 24.76 THARAKA County 42.07 47.66 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review NITHI Chuka 51.2 56.81 which was a stable trend as compared to the previous month of May. Maara 57.21 64.62 Tharaka 33.8 38.79 WEST County 28.47 38.17 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness POKOT Kacheliba 28.38 35.14 during the month under review which was stable when compared with the Kapenguria 32.59 43.7 previous month of May. Pokot South improved to above normal vegetation greenness. Pokot South 39.41 55.11 Sigor 18.69 29 EMBU County 57.44 62.23 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness Manyatta 61.62 65.67 during the month under review which a stable trend. Mbeere North 60.54 60.86 Mbeere South 54.31 61.38 Runyenjes 57.38 64.6 County 27.82 31.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of June with all of its sub-counties displaying an improving trend as compared to the previous Kitui Central 35.98 35.05 month of May. Kitui East 25.59 29.86 KITUI Mwingi 32.84 28.74 Mwingi North 34.75 36 Mwingi West 47.19 48.85 Kitui Rural 32.15 35.66 Kitui South 22.42 27.95 Kitui West 36.43 40.85 County 41.79 42.85 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Kaiti 71.76 65.77 which was a stable trend as compared to May. Kibwezi East and West deteriorated Kibwezi East 30.9 29.63 to moderate vegetation deficit. MAKUENI Kibwezi West 33.41 32.14 Kilome 50.28 40.96 Makueni 46.31 60.66 Mbooni 60.67 58.55 County 38.87 38.12 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Buuri 34.11 30.92 while 3 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June Central Imenti 57.51 62.21 with Igembe North recording severe vegetation deficit portraying a stable trend MERU for the county during this month under review. Igembe 36.64 37.08 Igembe North 17.22 13.11 Igembe South 51.57 57.49 North Imenti 50.8 46.51 South Imenti 59.72 65.8 Tigania East 35.9 32.92 Tigania West 36 29.33 County 53.68 57.17 The county and four of its sub counties remained stable at above normal Kieni 45.06 48.12 vegetation greenness except Kieni and township which recorded normal NYERI Mathira 60.91 65.91 vegetation greenness. Mukurweini 65.84 76.5 Othaya 65.69 74.14 Tetu 57.78 70.43 Township 69.52 49.27 County 17.53 19.81 The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub-counties was at severe Ganze 11.49 12.85 vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai, Kilifi South and Kilifi KILIFI Kaloleni 9.65 14.26 South improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit. Magarini 21.56 21.72 Malindi 20.54 28.77 Kilifi-North 12.61 23.29 Rabai 12.71 25.74 Kilifi-South 14.48 25.25 County 17.15 19.99 The county recorded severe vegetation deficit, a stability in vegetation condition KWALE Kinango 13.12 12.79 during the month under review. Lungalunga 17.2 22.32 Matuga 30..54 41.67 Msambweni 30.76 38.89 LAMU County 44.1 57.28 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Lamu East 45.93 57.25 greenness. All the sub-counties showed improvement. Lamu West 43.05 57.3 County 23.95 20.31 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when TAITA TAVETA Mwatate 27.32 18.78 compared to the previous month of May. Mwatate and Wundanyi worsened to Taveta 28.53 24.85 severe vegetation deficit. Voi 20.61 18.3 Wundanyi 29.15 26.53 County 60.23 57.05 Narok-East 57.47 58.56 NAROK Emurua Dikirr 67.34 67.4 There was stability in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub-counties Kilgoris 61.53 54.11 recorded Above normal vegetation greenness during the month of June. Narok-North 50.72 56.24 Narok-South 64.32 57.02 Narok-West 61.3 57.7 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data at a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency, or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "August_2022.pdf": "AUGUST 2022 Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 Long rains coupled with previous three failed consecutive seasons. The number of people in need of assistance is projected to increase to 4.35 million by October 2022 if the short rains season performs below average. Seven (7) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase while Thirteen (13) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 884,464 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 115,725 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished and in need of treatment. Drought indicators July Rainfall Performance Several parts of ASALs remained relatively dry in July. Several parts of the ASALs counties experienced below-average rainfall (less than 75mm of rainfall). The Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received between 10mm to 25mm of rainfall totals. The South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very little rainfall in the range ( 10mm - 50mm). The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties received some off-season rainfall with parts of Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties receiving moderate to above normal rainfall. Lamu and northern Kilifi received between 51mm - Figure 1. July 2022 Rainfall performance 100mm of rainfall while some parts of Agro- pastoral cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received off-season rainfall that was moderate in the range of 76mm - 125mm of rainfall totals, with some areas receiving very high rainfall totals of 151mm. Rainfall Forecast for August 2022 The August 2022 weather outlook indicates that several parts of the Arid and Semi Arid Lands (95 percent) will be typically dry and sunny. The PNE counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa and Tana River counties will experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions. The same will apply to some parts of coastal counties with the exemption of the coastal strip of Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu counties. The Pastoral North West counties; especially western strip of Turkana county is expected to receive Near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. Most of Agro-Pastoral counties are expected to experience sunny and dry weather conditions with the exemption of Narok and Baringo counties which are expected to receive Near-average rainfall. West Figure 2. August 2022 Rainfall forecast Pokot county is expected to receive Near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfal l respectively. Some parts of central ASAL counties of Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience periodically chilly and overcast conditions with light rainfall. Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in July 2021 with that in July 2022. July 2021 July 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of July 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of June 2022. The improvement is associated with the off-season showers experienced. However, many areas still experienced vegetation deficits. The current vegetation condition in July 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, July 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). Two (2) sub counties in Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance while three counties (3); Isiolo, Laikipia and Mandera are in severe vegetation deficit. Eleven (11) counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Mandera, Meru, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, and Wajir are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and activation of response plans. Four (4) counties including; Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, west Pokot and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness while five (5) counties including; Embu, Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Nyeri recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of July 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera) Severe (3) (14) vegetation Isiolo Isiolo (Isiolo-North, Isiolo-South), Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, deficit Laikipia Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Ganze), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (Laikipia- East, Laikipia-North) Mandera (Mandera East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru (Igembe North), Samburu (Samburu-East), Moderate (11) (43) vegetation Garissa Garissa (Daadab, Township), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini) Kitui (Kitui- deficit Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Central Kitui East, Kitui South), Laikipia (Laikipia-West) Makueni Kwale, Mandera, (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera Meru, Samburu, Taita East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera South, Mandera West) Taveta, Tana River, Marsabit (Saku), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Township), Samburu (Samburu-North Samburu-West) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tana River ( Bura, Galole, Garsen) Turkana ( Turkana Central, Turkana East, Turkana South), Wajir ( Eldas, Wajir-North, Wajir- South) Normal (4) (25) vegetation Makueni, Tharaka Baringo (Mogotio, Baringo North), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado greenness Nithi, West Pokot, Turkana (Kajiado-West), Kilifi (Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South), Kitui (Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui-Rural, Kitui West), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Meru (North Imenti), Narok (Narok-South), Nyeri (Kieni), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Loima, Turkana North), Wajir (Wajir-East, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor) Vegetation (5) (32) greenness Embu, Baringo, Lamu, Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Baringo South, Tiaty), Above normal Narok, Nyeri Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (Kajiado-North), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Makueni (Kaiti, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe South, South Imenti), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-West), Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana ( Turkana West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, West-Pokot South) Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), July 2022 Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month probably due to early cessation of the MAM rainfall season which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long duration due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, July 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Makueni Kilifi Embu Baringo Kilifi Embu Tharaka Nithi Lamu Garissa Kajiado Lamu Garissa West Pokot Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Mandera Kwale Kajiado Marsabit Laikipia Kitui Meru Makueni Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Laikipia Nyeri Turkana Mandera Samburu West Pokot Marsabit Tana River Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition was stable as compared to previous month of June. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Kilifi and Lamu counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2022 long rains season, which resulted to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, July 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Kilifi Baringo Embu Kilifi Garissa Kitui Lamu Garissa Isiolo Lamu Isiolo Kwale Mandera Kajiado Kajiado Laikipia Marsabit Kitui Mandera Makueni Nyeri Kwale Marsabit Meru Wajir Laikipia Nyeri Narok Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Meru Turkana Tana River Narok Wajir Tharaka Nithi Samburu West Pokot Taita Taveta Milk production Milk production was on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month in most of the counties. Some counties including; Baringo, Baringo, Kilifi, Mandera, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot recorded an improving trend. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance of the MAM rainfall season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year with Makueni and Tharaka Nithi County being the only county at above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table Table 4.0: Milk production, July 2022 Milk Makueni Kwale Baringo Baringo Embu Garissa Tharaka Nithi Tana River Embu Kilifi Kitui Isiolo Production Garissa Mandera Kwale Kajiado Isiolo Tana River Laikipia Lamu Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Makueni Marsabit Kilifi West Pokot Narok Meru Kitui Taita Taveta Nyeri Laikipia Turkana Samburu Lamu Wajir Marsabit Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of July remained stable compared to the previous month. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Tana River, Narok, Lamu and Kwale reported above normal LTA due to increased demand in the livestock market amidst to low supply. Eight counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, July 2022 Cattle Lamu West Pokot Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Narok Makueni Isiolo Kilifi Isiolo Kwale Tana River Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Kitui Laikipia Lamu Samburu Kwale Mandera Makueni Turkana Embu Marsabit Mandera Kilifi Garissa Meru Marsabit Nyeri Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Wajir Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were above LTA. The trend was however stable and worsening. There is an improvement of trend in Garissa and Narok while the counties of Samburu, Turkana, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Lamu and Tana River reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, July 2022 Goat Kilifi Embu Samburu Garissa Embu Samburu Kwale Garissa Turkana Narok Isiolo Turkana Laikipia Kitui Meru Kilifi Meru Makueni Lamu Tharaka Kitui Tharaka Nithi Tana River Marsabit Nithi Laikipia Wajir Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Makueni Baringo West Pokot Baringo Mandera Kajiado Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Kwale Mandera Nyeri Lamu Nyeri West Pokot Tana River Livestock Mortality Drought conditions have persisted in ASAL counties following failed multiple successive rain seasons. Parts of some counties including Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo and Mandera have had at least 3 failed rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation condition deficit coupled with challenges of access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and mortality. The livestock mortalities reported so far, are within normal ranges in the ASAL counties except Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa which have registered slightly above normal mortality rates. In the CMA counties, the crops that were at harvesting stage are in poor sate and thus farmers may not realize any harvest while there were no crops in counties like Nyeri and Makueni. Weeding was ongoing in Mixed Farming Zone of Kwale County. Maize prices In all counties, the price of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in July as compared to the previous month. The current maize prices are above LTA and on worsening trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, July 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Garissa Baringo Garissa Kilifi Embu Embu Mandera Isiolo Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Kitui Kajiado Wajir Kwale Kilifi Laikipia Kitui Makueni Makueni Samburu Mandera Taita Marsabit Taveta Narok West Nyeri Pokot Samburu Kajiado Taita-Taveta Lamu Tana River Marsabit Turkana Nyeri WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties reported above LTA distances to water for households while 3 counties are at LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance from households to water sources. No county showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, July 2022 Distance Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Kajiado Baringo Embu Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Embu Garissa Wajir West Pokot Kitui Garissa households Kajiado Kwale Isiolo to main Kwale Laikipia Makueni Laikipia Lamu Mandera water Lamu Marsabit Meru sources Makueni Narok Nyeri Mandera Taita Taveta Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Tana River Meru West Pokot Turkana Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties as illustrated in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, July 2022 Distance from Baringo Lamu Tharaka Nithi Kitui Embu Baringo Embu Garissa Wajir Kwale Kilifi Garissa livestock Isiolo Lamu Laikipia Isiolo grazing area Kajiado West Pokot Marsabit Kajiado to main water Kilifi Taita Taveta Makueni sources Kitui Tana River Mandera Makueni Nyeri Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is on a worsening trend as it is displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as a result of stable goat prices, while maize prices has worsened. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, July 2022 Terms of Nyeri Baringo Garissa Baringo trade Embu Kilifi Embu (ToT) Garissa Mandera Isiolo Isiolo Marsabit Kajiado Kitui Narok Kitui Kwale West Pokot Makueni Makueni Meru Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Nyeri Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Nithi Lamu Turkana Tana River Wajir Kwale Kilifi Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, and Wajir have MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2022 Baringo Laikipia Embu Garissa Samburu Baringo Kajiado Lamu Garissa Nyeri Isiolo Kajiado MUAC Kitui Kilifi Kwale West Pokot Lamu Kitui Mandera Taita Taveta Makueni Turkana Marsabit Makueni Marsabit Kwale Tana River Mandera Samburu Meru Tharaka-Nithi Meru Tana River Narok Wajir Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Embu Samburu Wajir West-Pokot Garissa Turkana Kilifi Isiolo Taita-Taveta Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of July 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties including Embu Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Tharaka Nithi, Tana River and Kwale are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in the Normal drought phase. Seven (7) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, three (3) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, July 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Lamu Baringo Alert Kilifi Kwale Embu Garissa Kitui Makueni Alarm Laikipia Isiolo Marsabit Mandera Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th July 2022 BARINGO County 45.38 51.89 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal Central 47.68 57.51 vegetation greenness which was an improvement when compared with Eldama 53.21 64.44 the previous month of June. Mogotio 41.33 47.72 North 39.05 45.43 South 46.75 51.14 Tiaty 46.32 52.21 MANDERA County 24.11 28.32 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is stable Banissa 31.82 31.85 when compared with the previous month of June. Lafey improved from M East 11.2 19.04 severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Lafey 17.96 26.14 M North 28.42 30.26 M South 24.09 31.66 M West 23.6 24.77 TURKANA County 43.33 43.13 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but still T Central 36.11 32.25 remained at normal vegetation condition during the month July. T. East 28.78 29.18 T. Loima 39.83 39.29 T. North 45.68 43.31 T. South 31.5 33.45 T. West 62.78 65.63 MARSABIT County 15.22 15.57 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the Laisaimis 13.93 16.37 month of June. Moyale worsened to severe vegetation greenness from Moyale 22.93 19.77 moderate vegetation greenness N. Horr 13.86 13.77 Saku 17.42 20.56 WAJIR County 23.26 29.14 The County and most of its sub counties remained stable at moderate W East 32.07 41.08 vegetation greenness. W. Eldas 16.49 20.77 W. North 26.73 29.54 W. South 20.4 27.18 W. Tarbaj 31.43 39.33 W West 19.2 24.01 SAMBURU County 19.36 22.22 The county improved from severe vegetation deficit to moderate S East 14.37 15.97 vegetation deficit during the month under review. S. North 24.16 28.6 S. West 23.15 25.66 GARISSA County 29.58 31.6 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the Balambala 9.64 9.52 month under review. Balambala was constant at extreme vegetation Daadab 19.16 21.22 deficit. Fafi 37.42 40.08 Ijara 54.09 55.58 Lagdera 6.22 8.42 Dujis 14.93 20.97 ISIOLO County 11.22 12.29 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit I. North 11.29 12.95 during the month under review. This was stable when compared to last I. South 11.11 11.27 month. TANA RIVER County 22.95 26.88 The county and all one of its subcounty recorded moderate vegetation Bura 19.5 22.69 deficit. Bura and Galole sub-counties improved from severe vegetation Galole 18.65 23.76 deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. Garsen 28.57 32.38 KAJIADO County 31.02 27.25 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central and K. Central 24.28 17.78 east worsened to severe vegetation deficit. K. East 25.89 19.66 K. North 55.67 60.26 K. South 17.9 17.62 K. West 47.11 42.91 LAIKIPIA County 16.35 19.41 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a stable trend. L. East 22.08 19.75 Laikipia worsened to severe vegetation deficit. L. North 10.38 12.59 L. West 24.76 32.02 THARAKA County 47.66 46.53 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month NITHI Chuka 56.81 58.67 under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous Maara 64.62 64.64 month of June. Tharaka 38.79 36.16 WEST POKOT County 38.79 46.65 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Kacheliba 38.17 43.31 greenness during the month under review which was stable when Kapenguria 35.14 52.41 compared with the previous month of June. Pokot South improved to Pokot South 43.7 64.56 normal vegetation greenness. Sigor 55.11 37.27 EMBU County 29 56.17 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Manyatta 62.23 62.27 greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. Mbeere 65.67 51.09 Mbeere 60.86 54.36 Runyenjes 61.38 67.64 County 31.92 33.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of Kitui Central 35.05 31.47 July. Kitui central, Mwingi north and Kitui rural showed a worsening Kitui East 29.86 31.94 trend Mwingi 32.84 35.74 KITUI Mwingi 36 32.9 Mwingi 48.85 42.69 Kitui Rural 35.66 33.06 Kitui South 27.95 33.36 Kitui West 40.85 37.46 County 42.85 41.32 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month Kaiti 65.77 57.55 under review which was a stable trend as compared to June. Kilome Kibwezi East 29.63 29.38 deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit. Kibwezi 32.14 32.31 MAKUENI West Kilome 40.96 28.64 Makueni 60.66 63.49 Mbooni 60.67 57.5 County 38.12 34.01 The county and four of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation Buuri 30.92 28.06 deficit. Central 62.21 58.84 Imenti MERU Igembe 36.64 31.13 Igembe 13.11 10.36 Igembe 57.49 51.78 North Imenti 46.51 38.56 South Imenti 65.8 64.99 Tigania East 32.92 27.07 Tigania West 29.33 22.72 County 57.17 53.3 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal NYERI Kieni 48.12 56.88 vegetation greenness. Kieni and township improved from normal Mathira 65.91 65.53 vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness. Mukurweini 76.5 53.53 Othaya 74.14 59.11 Tetu 70.43 48.77 Township 49.27 52.33 County 19.81 27.22 The vegetation condition in the county deteriorated to severe KILIFI Ganze 12.85 18.87 vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai, Kilifi South and Kaloleni 14.26 22.36 Kilifi South improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal Magarini 21.72 26.78 vegetation greenness. Malindi 28.77 39.73 Kilifi-North 23.29 44.44 Rabai 25.74 41.13 Kilifi-South 25.25 46.61 KWALE County 19.99 21.69 The county recorded an improvement from severe vegetation deficit to Kinango 12.79 12.21 moderate vegetation greenness during the month under review. Lungalunga 22.32 26.84 Matuga 41.67 47.53 Msambweni 38.89 43.52 LAMU County 57.28 69.65 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Lamu East 57.25 67.49 greenness. All the sub-counties showed improvement. Lamu West 57.3 70.9 TAITA County 20.31 23.2 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable TAVETA Mwatate 18.78 22.44 when compared to the previous month of June. Mwatate and Voi Taveta 24.85 25.07 improved to moderate vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit. Voi 18.3 22.17 Wundanyi 26.53 28.66 County 57.05 53.3 Narok-East 58.56 56.88 NAROK Emurua 67.4 65.53 There was stability in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub- Dikirr counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness during the Kilgoris 54.11 53.53 month of July. Narok-North 56.24 59.11 Narok-South 57.02 48.77 Narok-West 57.7 52.33 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "September_2022.pdf": "SEPTEMBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the failure of four consecutive seasons with the forecast for OND predicting the likely of fifth season under performing. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is projected to increase to 4.35Million by October 2022. Ten (10) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia, Tana River and Marsabit are under Alarm drought phase while Ten (10) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Worsening household food security situation has resulted in acute malnutrition rates noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. 2. Drought situation based on key indicators 2.1 August Rainfall Performance Analysis of the August 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced near to below-average rainfall (less than 60mm of rainfall). The PNE1 counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received traces of rainfall between 10mm to 20mm of rainfall totals. The SEMA2 counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very little rainfall in the range of (20mm - 60mm). The CMA3 counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received between (10mm - 40mm). Some parts of Agro-Pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received July-August rainfall that was normal to above normal in the range of 80mm - 200mm of rainfall totals with some areas especially Pokot South receiving very high rainfall totals of 200mm. Figure 1. August 2022 Rainfall Performance 1 Pastoral North Eastern 2 South Eastern Marginal Agriculture 3 Coast Marginal Agriculture Rainfall Forecast for OND Season The rainfall outlook for October November and December (OND) season is illustrated in figure 2. ASAL counties mainly fall under zone2 and zone3. Zone3 which comprises of PNE, SEMA, and CMA livelihood zones which includes; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are likely to recieve below average (highly depressed) rainfall. The chances of rainfall being below is forcasted at 65 with some chances of Near Normal at 20 and Above normal at 15. Zone2 which includes Pastoral North West (PNW) and AGP livelihood counties; Turkana, parts of Marsabit, parts of Samburu, West Pokot, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to recieve depressed rainfall (Below Average Rainfall). The chances of rainfall being Figure 2. August 2022 Rainfall forecast below is forcasted at 45 with some chances of Near Normal at 25 and Above normal at 20. The south western parts of West Pokot county bordering Mount Elgon is forecasted to receive Near Average Rainfall. Generally, the OND season is forecasted to be a failed season just like its predicessors which calls for anticipatory action in the ASAL counties. 2.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 depicts the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2021 with that in August 2022. Generally, the 2022 index indicates low values in the counties of Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Kajiado Garissa and Tana River. August 2021 August 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) August 20212022 The month of August 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition in the coast marginal agriculture counties of Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Taita Taveta and parts of south east marginal agriculture counties of Tana River. Mandera, Wajir and Turkana. The improvement is associated with the off-season showers of June-July-August season of 2022. The following 1 sub-county Nyeri (Township) is in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following three counties (3); Isiolo, Samburu and Marsabit are in severe vegetation deficit while twelve (12) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Embu, Kitui, Meru, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta and Tana River are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. Six (6) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Makueni, Nyeri and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following two (2) counties including; Baringo and Lamu, recorded above-normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in August 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, August 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (1) Nyeri (Nyeri town) Severe (3) (15) vegetation Marsabit Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South), deficit Samburu Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East, Kajiado South), Laikipia Isiolo (Laikipia East, Laikipia North), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Meru (Igembe North), Samburu (Samburu East) Moderate (12) (45) vegetation Mandera Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West), deficit Wajir Turkana (Turkana East, Loima, Turkana North), Wajir (Eldas, Garissa Wajir South, Wajir West), Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu Tana river West), Garissa (Daadab, Dujis), Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Kajiado North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural, Kitui West), Makueni Kitui (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri Kwale (Mathira), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango), Taita taveta Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Narok (Narok South). Normal (6) (31) vegetation Turkana greenness Tharaka Nithi Baringo (Mogotio), Embu (Manyatta), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado West Pokot (Kajiado West), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Malindi), Kitui (Kitui South, Makueni Mwingi Central), Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Nyeri Laikipia (Laikipia West), Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni), Mandera Narok (Banissa, Mandera South), Meru (Igembe South), Nyeri (Kieni, Othaya, Tetu), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana South, Turkana Central) Wajir (Tarbaj, Wajir North, Wajir East), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Narok (Narok East, Kilgoris, Narok West) Vegetation (2) (20) greenness Baringo Baringo (Baringo central, Baringo north, Baringo south, Eldama Above normal Lamu ravine, Tiaty), Embu (Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kilifi (Kilifi South, Rabai), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Makueni (Makueni), Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti), Tharaka Nithi (Maara), Turkana (Turkana West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Narok North). Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2022 2.3 Livestock production 2.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month due to failed MAM rainfall season which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long duration due to high concentration of livestock in the dry season grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Kitui Baringo Embu Kajiado Baringo Garissa Kwale Kilifi Garissa Kitui Kilifi Isiolo Narok Lamu Isiolo Kwale Lamu Kajiado Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia Meru West Pokot Laikipia Tana River Makueni Narok Makueni Tharaka Nithi Mandera Nyeri Mandera Taita taveta Samburu Meru Tharaka Nithi Tana River Samburu Turkana Taita taveta Wajir Turkana Marsabit 2.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition reported slight improvement as compared to previous month of July. However, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Most counties reported livestock body condition as fair-to- poor with the exception of Kilifi and Kwale counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair-to-poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2022 long rains season, accompanied with early cessation which resulted to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Embu Kwale Mandera Embu Kwale Kajiado Kitui Samburu Garissa Laikipia Makueni Tana river Kajiado Kwale Meru Turkana Kitui Mandera Narok Wajir Kwale Samburu Nyeri Marsabit Laikipia Tana river Taita Taveta Makueni Turkana Tharaka Nithi Meru Wajir west Pokot Narok Marsabit Nyeri 2.3.3 Milk production The current milk production is below average as compared to normal year with only Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties at above LTA. Persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region led to poor pasture condition hence low milk production. Some counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2022 Milk Kwale West Pokot Baringo Baringo Embu Kajiado Makueni Embu Isiolo Garissa Kitui Production Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kilifi Lamu Makueni Isiolo Kwale Mandera Meru Kajiado Laikipia Taita Taveta Narok Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Kitui Tharaka Nithi Samburu Laikipia West Pokot Tana River Lamu Wajir 2.3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of August remained stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 5 shows the trend of cattle prices. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2022 Cattle Embu West Pokot Baringo Baringo Embu Kitui Garissa Narok Isiolo Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kwale Makueni Kajiado Laikipia Isiolo Nyeri Lamu Laikipia Kitui Samburu Lamu Tana River Tana River Kilifi Mandera Kilifi Makueni Wajir Marsabit Mandera Taita Taveta Meru Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Meru Turkana Samburu Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot 2.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were at LTA. Majority of the trend was however stable and worsening. The counties on improvement of trend were Baringo, Kitui, Laikipia, Samburu and West Pokot. The following counties, Embu, Garissa, Nyeri, Wajir and Tana River reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, August 2022 Goat Kilifi Baringo Turkana Baringo Isiolo Embu Kwale Embu Meru Kitui Kilifi Garissa Laikipia Garissa Tharaka Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Kitui Lamu Nithi West Pokot Mandera Tana River Narok Makueni Wajir Samburu Marsabit Wajir Samburu Kajiado Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Marsabit Narok West Pokot Isiolo Turkana Tana River Mandera Meru Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kwale 2.3.6 Livestock Mortality The counties of Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa have registered slightly above normal mortality rates as drought conditions persisted in ASAL counties following failed successive rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation deficit coupled with challenged access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores leading to mortality attributed to drought effects. 2.4 Crop production In the marginal agricultural areas of CMA counties, harvesting was ongoing in parts of Kilifi, Kwale, and Taita Taveta and South east marginal agriculture counties of Kitui and Makueni. However harvests are below normal. Land preparation is ongoing across the counties. 2.4.1 Maize prices In the counties of Baringo, Embu, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Samburu, West Pokot, Marsabit and Nyeri, the price of maize was at an improving trend in the month under review while eight registered stable prices as the remaining five counties showed worsening prices compared to the previous month, as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Baringo Isiolo Garissa Prices Garissa Embu Kitui Kilifi Embu Kwale Lamu Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Taita Taveta Kajiado Makueni Meru Wajir Kilifi Narok Tana River Kitui Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kwale West Pokot Turkana Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Nyeri Taita-Taveta 2.5 WATER ACCESS 2.5.1 Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. Five counties including; Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2022 Distance Baringo Kitui Isiolo Baringo Isiolo Embu Embu Wajir Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Laikipia Garissa Garissa West Pokot Kwale Narok Kilifi househol Kajiado Samburu Nyeri Kitui ds to Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Lamu Kwale Wajir Makueni Laikipia West Pokot Mandera water sources Makueni Meru Mandera Tana River Marsabit Turkana 2.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 82 percent of counties are above LTA with most counties being at worsening trend except for Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot and Makueni counties which are at improving trend. This is illustrated in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2022 Distance from Baringo Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Meru Isiolo Garissa Embu West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kajiado livestock Isiolo Garissa West Pokot Embu Kitui grazing area Kajiado Makueni Kilifi Lamu to main water Kitui Kwale Tana River Kwale Laikipia Wajir sources Laikipia Mandera Makueni Narok Marsabit Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Narok Turkana Taita Taveta 2.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) except Nyeri an indication of low purchasing powers across the households. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, August 2022 Terms of Nyeri Baringo Baringo Embu Isiolo trade Embu Kajiado Lamu Garissa (ToT) Garissa Kitui Mandera Isiolo Makueni Taita Taveta Kitui Meru Tana River Kwale Samburu Turkana Makueni Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Laikipia Meru Kwale Narok Kilifi Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 2.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri Tana River, Turkana and Wajir recorded MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Isiolo, Kajiado, Kwale, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River and Marsabit counties reported a worsening trend that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2022 Baringo Embu Garissa Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Isiolo Turkana Embu Kajiado MUAC Kitui Meru Laikipia Kwale Kilifi Kwale Lamu Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni Kitui Narok Makueni Taita Taveta Mandera Lamu Nyeri Mandera Samburu Tharaka-Nithi Taita-Taveta Samburu Marsabit Narok Garissa Wajir Tana River Nyeri West-Pokot Meru West Pokot Marsabit 3.0 Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of August 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Lamu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Ten (10) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, three (3) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Lamu, West Pokot Baringo Alert Kwale Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Alarm Laikipia Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th August 2022 BARINGO County 51.89 52.79 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Central 57.51 61 Normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement when Eldama 64.44 68.68 compared with the previous month of July. Mogotio maintained Mogotio 47.72 49.57 at normal vegetation greenness. North 45.43 50.89 South 51.14 50.74 Tiaty 52.21 50.54 MANDERA County 28.32 33.8 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is Banissa 31.85 35.78 stable when compared with the previous month of July. M East 19.04 21.25 Mandera east improved from severe to moderate vegetation Lafey 26.14 30.52 deficit. M North 30.26 33.73 M South 31.66 39.54 M West 24.77 32.62 TURKANA County 43.13 37.56 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but still T Central 32.25 36.14 remained at normal vegetation condition during the month T. East 29.18 30.57 August. T. Loima 39.29 33.32 T. North 43.31 32.45 T. South 33.45 37.97 T. West 65.63 53.05 MARSABIT County 15.57 15.57 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition Laisaimis 16.37 16.42 during the month of August. Saku worsened to severe Moyale 19.77 17.98 vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation greenness N. Horr 13.77 14.27 Saku 20.56 19.31 WAJIR County 29.14 31.79 The County and most of its sub counties remained stable at W East 41.08 43.6 moderate vegetation greenness. W. Eldas 20.77 20.98 W. North 29.54 35.46 W. South 27.18 29.84 W. Tarbaj 39.33 45.4 W West 24.01 20.84 SAMBURU County 22.22 19.69 The county improved from Moderate vegetation deficit to S East 15.97 13.2 severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. S. North 28.6 26.2 S. West 25.66 23.64 GARISSA County 31.6 30.61 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit Balambala 9.52 13.92 during the month under review. Balambala and Lagdera Daadab 21.22 23.71 improved from extreme vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Fafi 40.08 36.4 Ijara 55.58 50.22 Lagdera 8.42 11.26 Dujis 20.97 25.92 ISIOLO County 12.29 13.77 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation I. North 12.95 12.92 deficit during the month under review. This was stable when I. South 11.27 15.08 compared to last month. TANA County 26.88 30.92 The county and all one of its subcounty recorded moderate RIVER Bura 22.69 30.28 vegetation deficit during the month of August. Galole 23.76 28.34 Garsen 32.38 33.09 KAJIADO County 27.25 24.84 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado K. Central 17.78 16.91 central and east maintained at severe vegetation deficit. K. East 19.66 17.96 K. North 60.26 27.29 K. South 17.62 19.53 K. West 42.91 36.51 LAIKIPIA County 19.41 20.5 L. East 19.75 16.45 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was an L. North 12.59 12.84 improvement. Laikipia West improved normal vegetation 32.02 36.8 greenness. L. West THARAKA County 46.53 41.03 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the NITHI Chuka 58.67 48.09 month under review which was a stable trend as compared to Maara 64.64 56.89 the previous month of July. Tharaka 36.16 33.31 WEST County 46.65 48.7 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded normal POKOT Kacheliba 43.31 46.56 vegetation greenness during the month under review which was Kapenguria 52.41 57.04 stable when compared with the previous month of July. Pokot South 64.56 61.38 Sigor 37.27 38.05 EMBU County 56.17 30.55 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate Manyatta 62.27 38.13 vegetation deficit during the month under review which was Mbeere North 51.09 27.12 deteriorating trend. Mbeere South 54.36 26.46 Runyenjes 67.64 45.16 County 33.92 34.6 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the Kitui Central 31.47 22.16 month of August. KITUI Kitui East 31.94 33 Mwingi Central 35.74 36.99 Mwingi North 32.9 30.06 Mwingi West 42.69 32.9 Kitui Rural 33.06 28.1 Kitui South 33.36 37.93 Kitui West 37.46 28.49 MAKUENI County 41.32 36.21 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the Kaiti 57.55 36.12 month under review which was a stable trend as compared to Kibwezi East 29.38 30.68 July. Kibwezi West 32.31 31.97 Kilome 28.64 20.29 Makueni 63.49 52.37 Mbooni 57.5 46.12 County 34.01 32.99 The county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate Buuri 28.06 27.62 vegetation deficit. Central Imenti 58.84 54.11 Igembe Central 31.13 29.75 Igembe North 10.36 14.81 Igembe South 51.78 42.78 North Imenti 38.56 31.74 South Imenti 64.99 65.76 Tigania East 27.07 26.6 Tigania West 22.72 26.11 County 53.3 40.07 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at normal Kieni 56.88 43.96 vegetation greenness. Township worsened from above normal NYERI Mathira 65.53 28.82 vegetation greenness to extreme vegetation deficit. Mukurweini 53.53 42.43 Othaya 59.11 43.26 Tetu 48.77 48.16 Township 52.33 0.99 County 27.22 29.7 The vegetation condition in the county maintained at moderate Ganze 18.87 21.84 vegetation greenness. KILIFI Kaloleni 22.36 32.59 Magarini 26.78 27.81 Malindi 39.73 37.62 Kilifi-North 44.44 48.81 Rabai 41.13 51.13 Kilifi-South 46.61 48.81 County 21.69 32.42 The county recorded a constancy at severe vegetation deficit KWALE Kinango 12.21 22.8 during the month under review. Lungalunga 26.84 45.06 Matuga 47.53 47.79 Msambweni 43.52 46.9 County 69.65 71.51 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal Lamu East 67.49 68.34 vegetation greenness. All the sub-counties showed Lamu West 70.9 73.34 improvement. County 23.2 24.52 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded moderate TAITA Mwatate 22.44 23.14 vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the TAVETA Taveta 25.07 22.09 previous month of July. Voi 22.17 25.44 Wundanyi 28.66 30.4 County 53.3 42.13 There was deterioration in vegetation cover as the county Narok-East 56.88 43.19 normal vegetation greenness from Above normal vegetation NAROK Emurua Dikirr 65.53 56.29 greenness during the month of August. Kilgoris 53.53 46.55 Narok-North 59.11 52.51 Narok-South 48.77 34.68 Narok-West 52.33 40.48 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "October_2022.pdf": "OCTOBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continues to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the four successive failed rains seasons. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance currently stands at 4.35 million based on 2022 long rains food and nutritional security assessment report. Eleven (11) counties namely; Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, are in Alarm drought phase while Nine (9) counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6- 59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. NB For detailed county analysis, please visit the NDMA website www.ndma.go.ke 2. Key indicators performance 2.1 September Rainfall Performance Analysis of the September 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that the Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received trace rainfall between 10mm to 20mm of rainfall totals. The South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties also received trace rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received (25). Some parts of Agro-pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received JJA rainfall that was normal in the range of 101mm - 125mm of rainfall totals with some areas especially Pokot south, Eldama ravine, Narok West and Kilgoris receiving high rainfall totals between 176 - 200mm. Figure 1. September 2022 Rainfall Performance 2.2 Rainfall Forecast for October The rainfall outlook for the month of October is illustrated in figure 2. Most ASAL counties including Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to receive highly depressed rainfall. Pocket areas in the counties of Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Nyeri, Embu, Kajiado and Narok are forecasted to recieve Near average rainfall. During the month of October, Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, parts of Laikipia and Narok are forecasted to received Near average with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. This is in tandem with expected timely onset of OND rainfall season in the western parts of Kenya. Figure 1. October 2022 Rainfall forecast 2.3 Vegetation condition September 2021 September 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) September 20212022 The month of September 2022 indicated a slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the ASALs compared to August 2022.The deterioration is associated with poor performance of off- season showers of June-July-August (JJA) season in most ASAL counties except for good performance in the western parts of Kenya, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot counties. No countysub-county was in Extreme vegetation deficit. Two (2) counties namely Isiolo and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit while nine (9) counties including; Mandera, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Tana River are in Moderate vegetation deficit. The following nine (9) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru, Embu, Kitui, Kwale and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following three (3) counties including; Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in September 2022 is worse as compared to the same period in September 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of September 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe (2) (17) vegetation Marsabit, Isiolo Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Kajiado (Central), deficit Kilifi (Ganze), Laikipia (North), Mandera (East), Marsabit (Moyale, Saku, Laisamis, North Horr), Meru (Igembe North), Nyeri (Town), Samburu (East), Wajir (West, Eldas). Moderate (9) (42) vegetation Mandera, Wajir, deficit Samburu, Garissa, Embu (Mbeere South), Garissa (Township, Fafi, Daadab), Kajiado (East, Tana River, Kajiado, North, South), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini, Malindi), Kitui (Central, East, Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Rural, Mwingi North), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (East), Makueni Taveta (Kibwezi East, Kilome), Mandera (Lafey, Banissa, North, West, South), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Mathira), Taita Taveta (Voi, Mwatate, Wundanyi, Taveta), Tana River (Bura, Garsen, Galole), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Loima, North), Wajir (North, South), Narok (South, East). Normal (9) (30) vegetation Turkana, Tharaka greenness Nithi, Embu, Kitui, Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado Makueni, Narok, (West), Kilifi (North), Kitui (South, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West), Meru, Nyeri, Kwale Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West) Meru (Igembe South, North Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Samburu (East), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (East, Central), Wajir (Tarbaj, East), West Pokot (Sigor) Narok (North, West). Vegetation (3) (22) greenness Baringo, West Pokot, Baringo (Central, North, South, Eldama Ravine, South, Tiaty), Kilifi Above normal Lamu (South, Rabai), Kwale (Lunga Lunga), Lamu (East, West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (South Imenti, Central Imenti), Turkana (South, West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris). Table 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2022 3. Livestock production 3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month due to minimal precipitation in the rangelands. The current pasture and browse conditions are estimated to last for less than one month in livestock concentration grazing areas. The condition of pasture and browse was however good in Baringo, West Pokot, and Lamu counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Kilifi Baringo Embu Kilifi Baringo Garissa Kwale Lamu Garissa Kwale West Pokot Isiolo Nyeri West Pokot Isiolo Laikipia Kajiado Samburu Kajiado Lamu Kitui Kitui Meru (North) Laikipia Makueni Narok Makueni Mandera Nyeri Mandera Marsabit Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Meru (North) Tharaka Nithi Narok Turkana 3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition ranged between fair to poor across ASAL counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions except for Kilifi and West Pokot counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Kilifi Garissa Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Embu West Pokot Isiolo Embu Lamu Kajiado Kitui Kajiado Kitui West Pokot Lamu Kwale Mandera Kwale Laikipia Meru Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Narok Turkana Makueni Mandera Nyeri Wajir Meru Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Tana River Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River 3.3 Milk production Milk production was below normal due to the poor forage regime in the counties experiencing drought situation. The JJA season did not generate adequate showers for minor pasture and browse generation. However, Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties recorded above the LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2022 Milk Tharaka Nithi Kwale Baringo Baringo Embu Garissa Makueni Embu Kajiado Kitui Isiolo Production Laikipia Garissa Kilifi Lamu Kwale West Pokot Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Kajiado Meru Nyeri Mandera Kilifi Samburu Taita Taveta Narok Kitui West Pokot Wajir Tana River Lamu Turkana Tharaka Nithi NB: Turkana had zero readings 3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices remained unstable compared to the previous month owing to poor livestock body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Narok and Tana River reported above the LTA due to increased demand of livestock. Five counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas eight counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2022 Cattle Kwale West Pokot Baringo Baringo Kitui Embu Lamu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Lamu Garissa Makueni Kajiado Kwale Makueni Isiolo Narok Kilifi West Pokot Narok Kilifi Tana River Kitui Nyeri Laikipia Laikipia Taita Taveta Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Samburu Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir 3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were within the long-term averages. However, majority of the counties hard hit by drought recorded below LTA. The trend was however stable and worsening. There is an improving trend in Kajiado and Kwale. The following counties, Garissa, Isiolo, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, September 2022 Goat Kajiado Baringo Turkana Kajiado Baringo Garissa Kilifi Embu Tharaka Kwale Kilifi Isiolo Kwale Garissa Nithi Kitui Nyeri Laikipia Kitui Wajir Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Makueni Lamu Marsabit Samburu Narok Meru Isiolo Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Mandera Tana River Nyeri 3.6 Livestock Mortality Diminished pasture and water resources in most of the ASAL counties led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and accelerating mortalities across all species. High livestock mortalities have been reported in Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa counties. 3.7 Crop production In the marginal agricultural areas of CMA counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale County, harvesting of seasonal crops was complete with harvests having been realized only in the mixed farming livelihood zone while the livestock farming livelihood zone posted nil harvests. In the SEMA counties: In Kitui, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties, land preparation had started in anticipation of the 2022 short rains. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along the main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva, Thua Kikuo, Kaiti and Thwake) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. 3.7.1 Maize prices Maize prices in all ASAL counties were high and above average affecting the purchasing power of households.The prices were on increasing trend and thus require close monitoring.As compared to similar period,the prices were unstable as demonstrated in Table 7. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2022 Indicat Current status Trend or Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Garissa Garissa Kitui Kwale Embu Kajiado Lamu Samburu Isiolo Marsabit Mandera Taita Taveta Kajiado Meru Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Nyeri Turkana Kitui Tana River Embu Kwale Wajir Laikipia Laikipia Makueni Makueni Narok Mandera West Pokot Taita-Taveta 4. WATER RESOURCE ACCESS 4.1 Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties have their distances to water for households currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance to household from water source. The current return distance ranges from 3 kilometers in Baringo to 16.3 kilometers in Mandera as compared to an average LTA of 5 kilometers normally for arid counties. West Pokot had the lowest trekking distance of 2.6 kilometers as compared to Kajiado that had the highest of 8.1 kilometers for Semi-arid counties. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2022 Distance Embu Samburu Isiolo Baringo Kilifi Embu Garissa Kilifi West Pokot Makueni Laikipia Garissa Kajiado Kitui Narok Mandera Isiolo households Kwale Baringo West Pokot Marsabit Kajiado to main Laikipia Samburu Kitui water Makueni Tharaka Kwale Mandera Nithi Lamu sources Marsabit Turkana Meru Meru Nyeri Narok Taita Taveta 4.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is increasing with Marsabit having the highest livestock trekking distance at 38.9 kilometers and Baringo with lowest at 8.5 kilometers for Arid counties. Meru North had the highest livestock return trekking distance as compared to Narok and West Pokot that had lowest trekking distance for Semi-arid counties. This is illustrated in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2022 Distance from Embu Baringo Wajir Baringo Turkana Embu Isiolo Garissa Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Tana River Garissa livestock Kitui Samburu Narok Kilifi Nyeri Isiolo grazing area Kwale West Pokot Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Kwale to main water Laikipia Kilifi Narok Lamu sources Lamu Samburu Makueni Makueni West Pokot Marsabit Mandera Meru Marsabit Taita Taveta Meru Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Wajir Taita Kitui Taveta 5. Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). Laikipia had the most favorable terms of trade for arid counties at 52 percent while Turkana had the most unfavorable terms of trade at 16.1percent for arid counties. Kilifi had the most favorable terms of trade at 82 percent and Nyeri unfavorable terms of trade at 30 percent for Semi-arid counties. The unfavorable terms of trade point to worsening drought conditions. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, September 2022 Terms of Lamu Baringo Kajiado Embu Isiolo trade Embu Kilifi Lamu Marsabit (ToT) Garissa Kwale Baringo Meru Isiolo Samburu Kitui Nyeri Kitui Makueni Kwale Tharaka Makueni Nithi Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Narok Meru West Pokot Narok Garissa Samburu Mandera Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Turkana Wajir Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia 6. Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Marsabit, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa, Samburu, Tana River, Mandera recorded serious to extremely critical situation mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level, crisis coping strategies being employed by households and poor dietary diversity. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September 2022 Baringo Embu Kilifi Baringo Embu Kwale Kajiado Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Isiolo Samburu MUAC Kitui Isiolo Narok Lamu Kajiado Kitui Makueni Kwale Taita Taveta Narok Mandera Garissa Mandera Lamu Wajir Marsabit Turkana Marsabit Nyeri Nyeri Kwale Meru West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Makueni Tharaka Nithi Tana River Tharaka-Nithi Samburu West Pokot Garissa Tana River Meru 7. Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of September 2022. Based on the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties including Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Lamu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Eleven (11) counties namely; Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, September 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Baringo, West Lamu Pokot Alert Kwale Embu, Kilifi, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi Alarm Laikipia Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, and Wajir, Emergency Recovery 8. Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Commercial and slaughter off-take Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Scale up water trucking interventions to communities and institutions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized strategic boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. ANNEX 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th September 2022 BARINGO County 52.79 63.98 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Central 61.0 66.68 Normal vegetation greenness which was stable when compared with the previous month of August. Mogotio improved to Eldama 68.68 68.42 Mogotio 49.57 60.84 above normal vegetation greenness. North 50.89 65.93 South 50.74 61.82 Tiaty 50.54 63.59 MANDERA County 33.8 28.02 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is Banissa 35.78 29.18 stable when compared with the previous month of August. M East 21.25 16.19 Mandera east worsened from moderate vegetation deficit to Lafey 30.52 22.76 severe vegetation deficit. M North 33.73 27.51 M South 39.54 34.46 M West 32.62 28.64 TURKANA County 37.56 41.54 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but T Central 36.14 40.4 remained at normal vegetation condition during the month T. East 30.57 46.91 September. T. Loima 33.32 34.69 T. North 32.45 31 T. South 37.97 53.19 T. West 53.05 50.65 MARSABIT County 15.57 13.52 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition Laisaimis 16.42 14.85 during the month of September. Moyale 17.98 13.9 N. Horr 14.27 13.94 Saku 19.31 17.93 WAJIR County 31.79 27.91 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. W East 43.6 38.21 Eldas and Wajir West sub county worsened to severe W. Eldas 20.98 17.2 vegetation deficit. W. North 35.46 30.69 W. South 29.84 27.33 W. Tarbaj 45.4 40.75 W West 20.84 15.74 SAMBURU County 19.69 21.46 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit from S East 13.2 12.5 Moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. S. North 26.2 27.9 S. West 23.64 35.88 GARISSA County 30.61 27.14 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit Balambala 13.92 16.24 during the month under review. Fafi and Ijara worsened to Daadab 23.71 22.36 moderate vegetation deficit. Fafi 36.4 30.88 Ijara 50.22 41.69 Lagdera 11.26 12.35 Dujis 25.92 26.82 ISIOLO County 13.77 13.58 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation I. North 12.92 12.3 deficit during the month of September. This was stable when I. South 15.08 compared to last month. 15.54 TANA County 30.92 31.17 The county and all one of its sub counties recorded moderate RIVER Bura 30.28 32.01 vegetation deficit during the month of September. Galole 28.34 29.09 Garsen 33.09 31.76 KAJIADO County 24.84 27.5 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado K. Central 16.91 18.35 central and east maintained at severe vegetation deficit during K. East 17.96 23.77 the month of September. K. North 27.29 27.55 K. South 19.53 24 K. West 36.51 37.12 LAIKIPIA County 20.5 27.32 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a L. East 16.45 24.22 stability. Laikipia West also remained at normal vegetation L. North 12.84 18.1 greenness while Laikipia North worsened to Severe Vegetation 36.8 46.07 greenness. L. West THARAKA County 41.03 38.38 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the NITHI Chuka 48.09 41.68 month under review which was a stable trend as compared to Maara 56.89 47.94 the previous month of August. Tharaka 33.31 34.09 WEST County 48.7 59.31 The County and all its sub-counties recorded above normal POKOT Kacheliba 46.56 57.8 vegetation greenness during the month under review which was Kapenguria 57.04 67.98 an improvement when compared with the previous month of August. Pokot South 61.38 68.63 Sigor 38.05 49.21 EMBU County 30.55 36.17 The county and all its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Manyatta 38.13 35.85 greenness. Mbeere North 27.12 38.91 Mbeere South 26.46 32.93 Runyenjes 45.16 42.55 County 34.6 35.04 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness which was Kitui Central 22.16 24.82 an improvement from moderate vegetation deficit during the KITUI month of September. Kitui East 33 34.36 Mwingi Central 36.99 35.32 Mwingi North 30.06 29.87 Mwingi West 32.9 40.81 Kitui Rural 28.1 30.31 Kitui South 37.93 37.78 Kitui West 28.49 32.17 County 36.21 39.95 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the Kaiti 36.12 40.65 month under review which was a stable trend as compared to MAKUENI Kibwezi East 30.68 32.73 August. Kibwezi West 31.97 36.51 Kilome 20.29 25.98 Makueni 52.37 55.49 Mbooni 46.12 51.19 County 32.99 38.13 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness an MERU Buuri 27.62 34.19 improvement from moderate vegetation deficit during the last Central Imenti 54.11 56.8 month. Igembe Central 29.75 34.9 Igembe North 14.81 19.69 Igembe South 42.78 45 North Imenti 31.74 43.78 South Imenti 65.76 65.19 Tigania East 26.6 34.95 Tigania West 26.11 33.09 County 40.07 38.94 The county and one of its sub counties noted a stability at Kieni 43.96 42.17 normal vegetation greenness. Township improved from NYERI Mathira 28.82 27.15 extreme vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Mukurweini 42.43 38.54 Othaya 43.26 43.93 Tetu 48.16 45.12 Township 0.99 11.91 County 29.7 25.45 The vegetation condition in the county maintained at moderate Ganze 21.84 18.85 vegetation greenness during the month of September. Ganze KILIFI Kaloleni 32.59 33.93 worsened to severe vegetation deficit. Magarini 27.81 23.47 Malindi 37.62 26.7 Kilifi-North 48.81 38.7 Rabai 51.13 50.22 Kilifi-South 48.81 52.97 County 32.42 36.8 The county recorded an improvement to normal vegetation KWALE Kinango 22.8 27.62 greenness from moderate vegetation greenness during the Lungalunga 45.06 52.24 month of September. Matuga 47.79 45.46 Msambweni 46.9 49.73 LAMU County 71.51 61.93 The County and all its sub-counties recorded above normal Lamu East 68.34 58.22 vegetation greenness. All the sub-counties showed Lamu West 73.34 64.08 improvement. County 24.52 27.5 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate TAITA Mwatate 23.14 24.26 vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the TAVETA Taveta 22.09 27.96 previous month of August. Voi 25.44 27.72 Wundanyi 30.4 33.57 County 42.13 41.46 NAROK Narok-East 43.19 33.46 There was constancy in vegetation cover in the county at Emurua Dikirr 56.29 65.18 normal vegetation greenness during the month of September. Kilgoris 46.55 52.98 Narok-North 52.51 39.72 Narok-South 34.68 31.83 Narok-West 40.48 47.59 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Annex 3. Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in several sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "November_2022'.pdf": "NOVEMBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continued to deteriorate in twenty-one (21) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the four failed consecutive seasons and late onset and poorly distributed 2022 short rains season. The number of people in need of food assistance stands at 4.35 million currently, and the impacts of the anticipated short rains 2022 is expected to lead to increase or decrease of these numbers. Fourteen (14) counties namely; Laikipia, Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado and Mandera are classified under Alarm drought phase, seven (7) counties including Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining two (2) counties including Baringo and West Pokot are in Normal drought Figure 1.0: Drought Phase Classification phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 October Rainfall Performance Analysis of the October 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced depressed rainfall. The Pastoral North West (PNW) clusters received 50 of the October long term mean (LTM). The Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received less than 25 of the October LTM. The South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties also received very minimal rainfall with Kajiado and Taita Taveta counties receiving less than 5. The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties; Kwale, Figure 2.0. October 2022 Rainfall Performance Kilifi and Lamu counties received little rains. Lamu County received moderate rainfall between 51 75 . Some parts of Agro-Pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received off season September-November (SON) rainfall between 76 to 100 of the October LTM, with some areas especially Pokot south receiving 101 110 LTM of the October rainfall. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for November. The rainfall outlook for the month of November is illustrated in figure 2. Most ASAL counties in the following clusters; PNE, SEMA, AGP and CMA livelihood zones including; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to receive increased probability of depressed rainfall. Parts of PNW, SEMA and AGP including; Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Nyeri, Embu, Kajiado, West Pokot, Baringo and Narok are forecasted to recieve Figure 3. November 2022 Rainfall forecast depressed rainfall during the month of November. Other spots in arid and semi-arid counties are likely to experience typically very dry conditions. These includes; parts of Kitui and Tana River, central parts of Isiolo County and parts of Kilifi and Taita-Taveta counties. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for November 2022. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 considers the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2021 and October 2022. Generally, the vegetation condition in 2021 was better than that of 2022 same period. October 2021 October 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) October 20212022 The month of October 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition in some parts of the ASALs. The slight improvement is associated with off-season showers of September October November (SON) season mostly in the western parts of Kenya, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot counties stretching all the way to Narok and Kajiado counties. None of the countysub county was in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following four counties (4); Isiolo, Mandera, Kilifi and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following seven (7) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following four (4) counties including; Baringo, West Pokot, Embu and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in October 2022 is worse as compared to the same period in October 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of October 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe (4) (18) vegetation Isiolo, Mandera, Kilifi, Wajir (West, Eldas), Samburu (East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, deficit Marsabit North Horr), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa), Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Ganze), Kajiado (Central), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab, Balambala) Moderate (7) (31) vegetation Wajir, Samburu, Garissa (Township, Ijara, Fafi), Kajiado (East, South), Kilifi deficit Garissa, Tana River, (Kaloleni, North), Kitui (Rural, West, Mwingi North), Kwale Kajiado, Kwale, Taita (Kinango), Laikipia (North) Makueni (Kilome), Mandera (West, South) Marsabit (Saku), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe North), Nyeri (Town), Samburu (North), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana (North), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South) Normal (8) (36) vegetation Turkana, Laikipia Embu (Mbeere South), Kajiado (North, West), Kilifi (South, Rabai), greenness Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui South, Mwingi Central, Mwingi Lamu West), Kwale (Lunga Lunga, Matuga) Laikipia (East), Lamu (East), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West) Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini) Samburu (West) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Loima, Central, West) Wajir (East), Narok (East, North, South) Vegetation (4) (24) greenness Baringo, West Pokot, Baringo (Central, North, South, Eldama ravine, Mogotio, Tiaty) Above normal Embu, Narok Embu (Runyenjes) Kwale (Msambweni), Laikipia (West), Lamu (West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti), Nyeri (Othaya, Tetu), Turkana (South, East), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Narok West) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Pasture and browse deteriorated to Fair condition in West Pokot, Lamu and Baringo which were in good state during the last month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, October 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Baringo Embu Baringo West Pokot Garissa West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Isiolo Lamu Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Kitui Narok Kitui Samburu Laikipia Kwale Taita Taveta Lamu Narok Tana River Meru Taita Taveta Turkana Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi Makueni Turkana Mandera Wajir Marsabit Laikipia Nyeri Makueni Kajiado 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed poor and fair conditions in most of the arid and semi-arid counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, 65 percent of counties reported poor livestock body condition for cattle while 56 percent of counties reported poor livestock body condition for goats as shown in Table 3 Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, October 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Kwale Garissa Baringo Isiolo Embu Isiolo Embu Kitui Kilifi Kitui Kilifi Narok Taita Taveta Narok Kwale Samburu West Pokot Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Lamu Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Turkana Turkana Lamu Wajir Wajir Nyeri Laikipia Makueni Meru Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kajiado 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month under review was on a decreasing trend as compared to the previous month of September in most of the counties. Only Narok County recorded an improving trend. Persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region led to poor pasture condition hence low milk production. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 20 of the 23 counties. Makueni and West Pokot counties recorded above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, October 2022 Milk West Pokot Laikipia Baringo Narok Garissa Baringo Makueni Embu Isiolo Embu Production Garissa Kitui Kilifi Isiolo Wajir Kwale Kilifi West Pokot Samburu Kitui Lamu Taita Taveta Kwale Makueni Tana River Narok Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Samburu Meru Kajiado Taita Taveta Laikipia Tana River Mandera Tharaka Nithi Turkana NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4 Cattle prices 69 percent of the counties recorded cattle prices below normal with 11 counties reporting worsening trend. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Garissa, Tana River, Kwale and Lamu counties reported above normal LTA but with decreasing trend due to deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. The following counties including; Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni and Marsabit reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2022 Cattle Garissa Embu Baringo Lamu Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Tana River West Pokot Isiolo Turkana Kilifi Kwale Narok Kilifi Wajir Kitui Lamu Kitui West Pokot Kwale Samburu Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Baringo Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Embu Tana River Turkana Garissa Kajiado Wajir Mandera Laikipia Kajiado Nyeri Makueni Laikipia Meru Marsabit 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in all the ASAL counties were below LTA with 56 percent of counties recording below LTA goat prices with a stable and worsening trend except for Lamu which recorded an improvement trend. Consequently, 10 counties are depicting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, October 2022 Goat Kilifi Garissa Turkana Lamu Baringo Embu Kwale Kitui Tharaka Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Nithi Kilifi Kajiado Lamu Samburu Wajir Laikipia Kitui Narok Tana River Marsabit Samburu Kwale Isiolo Makueni Narok Mandera Mandera Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Kajiado Taita Taveta Meru Baringo Tana River Nyeri Embu Wajir Meru West Pokot Taita 1.4 Crop production CMA counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale County, harvesting of the seasonal crops was complete with harvests having been realized only in the mixed farming livelihood zone while the livestock farming livelihood zone posted nil harvests. SEMA counties: In Kitui County, land preparation had started in few farms in anticipation of the 2022 short rains. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva and Thua) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. In Makueni county, the farms were clear and farmers were busy preparing them in anticipation of the October- November-December short rains season. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Kikuo, Kaiti and Thwake) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. In Tharaka Nithi county, on-farm activities during the month of September were land preparation in readiness for the short rain seasonal onset. 1.4.1 Maize prices In West pokot, the price of maize was at a worsening trend in the month under review while in the remaining counties 16 were at Stable and 6 recorded improving trend as compared to the previous month. as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, October 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Kilifi Embu Baringo West Pokot Kwale Kilifi Garissa Laikipia Lamu Isiolo Lamu Meru Kajiado Narok Nyeri Kitui Garissa Wajir Kwale Kitui Laikipia Makueni Makueni Samburu Mandera Tana River Marsabit Turkana Narok Tharaka Nithi Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Marsabit Tana River Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Mandera Turkana Baringo Taita Taveta 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance to household from water source. Arid counties distances to household water access ranged between 2.6 kilometers (km) and 7.7 km with West Pokot recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances to household water access. Counties including; Baringo, Makueni, Narok and West Pokot showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, October 2022 Distance Embu Baringo West Pokot Kajiado Garissa Baringo Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Embu Isiolo Laikipia Kwale Kilifi househol Kilifi West Pokot Kitui ds to Kitui Laikipia Narok Kwale Marsabit Samburu Narok Meru Taita Taveta water sources Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Turkana Lamu Wajir Makueni Lamu Mandera Makueni Nyeri 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Narok, Samburu and West Pokot counties which are at improving trend due to the little showers received in the respective counties. The average trekking distance for Arid counties ranged between 6.7 km and 40 kilometers(km) with Baringo recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 3.7 km to 8.3 km with Narok recording the lowest and Kitui highest. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2022 Distance from Baringo West Pokot Kajiado Garissa Baringo Embu Kajiado Isiolo Embu livestock Garissa Kilifi Kitui grazing area Isiolo Turkana Kwale to main water Kilifi West Pokot Narok Kitui Laikipia Samburu sources Kwale Marsabit Taita Taveta Taita Tharaka Nithi Taveta Wajir Tana River Lamu Tharaka Makueni Nithi Mandera Turkana Nyeri Wajir Meru 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) displaying worsening conditions in most counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, October 2022 Terms of Lamu Baringo Kwale Lamu Embu trade Embu West Pokot Baringo Garissa (ToT) Garissa Laikipia Isiolo Isiolo West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Mandera Kilifi Kwale Tana River Kitui Makueni Turkana Makueni Marsabit Meru Meru Narok Narok Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Turkana Samburu Tana River Kilifi Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Garissa, Kitui, Kwale, Makueni, Samburu, Turkana, West-Pokot recorded MUAC below the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. The counties of Kwale, Samburu, Kitui, Garissa, Turkana, Kwale, Makueni, Garissa and West Pokot recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2022 Indicator Current Trend Kajiado Baringo Garissa Kwale Baringo Kajiado Nyeri Embu Kitui Samburu Embu Kilifi MUAC Kajiado Isiolo Kwale Kitui Isiolo Marsabit Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Garissa Laikipia Meru Meru Lamu Samburu Turkana Lamu Narok Tharaka Mandera Turkana Kwale Mandera Nyeri Nithi Taita Taveta West-Pokot Makueni Taita-Taveta Tharaka- Wajir Tana River Garissa Tana River Nithi Kilifi West Pokot Wajir Narok 2.0. Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of October 2022. Based on the range of indicators monitored above, seven (7) counties including Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu are in the Alert drought phase, while two (2) counties including Baringo and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Fourteen (14) counties namely; Laikipia, Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado and Mandera are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, October 2022 Drought Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal West Pokot Baringo Alert Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Lamu, Alarm Laikipia Marsabit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera, Emergency None None None Recovery 3.0. Recommendations 3.1 Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. 3.2 Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Support on livestock commercial and slaughter in situ Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3.2 Water sector Scale up water trucking interventions to communities and institutions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. 3.3 Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 3.4 Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. 3.5 Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 3.6 Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) and Sector Technical working groups to effectively coordinate drought response activities. ANNEXES Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th October 2022 BARINGO County 63.98 72.67 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal Central 66.68 76.34 vegetation greenness which showed slight improvement when Eldama 68.42 71.57 compared with the previous month of September. Mogotio 60.84 68.6 North 65.93 74.99 South 61.82 72.23 Tiaty 63.59 72.79 MANDERA County 28.02 18.54 The county recorded worsened to severe vegetation deficit from Banissa 29.18 16.34 moderate vegetation condition during the last month of September. M East 16.19 11.24 Mandera South and Mandera West were stable at moderate vegetation Lafey 22.76 13.55 deficit M North 27.51 18.93 M South 34.46 21.95 M West 28.64 22.31 TURKANA County 41.54 44.32 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but remained at T Central 40.4 46 normal vegetation condition during the month of October. Turkana East T. East 46.91 52.39 improved to above normal vegetation greenness. T. Loima 34.69 42.08 T. North 31 32.84 T. South 53.19 57.73 T. West 50.65 47.45 MARSABIT County 13.52 15.61 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the Laisaimis 14.85 15.79 month of October. Saku improved to moderate vegetation greenness. Moyale 13.9 16.08 N. Horr 13.94 15.14 Saku 17.93 20.23 WAJIR County 27.91 22.81 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. Wajir W East 38.21 26.07 east and Tarbaj sub counties worsened to moderate vegetation deficit W. Eldas 17.2 15.91 from normal vegetation greenness W. North 30.69 28.24 W. South 27.33 22.22 W. Tarbaj 40.75 28.93 W West 15.74 14.97 SAMBURU County 21.46 23.22 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit compared to last S East 12.5 10.59 month of September. Samburu west was stable at normal vegetation S. North 27.9 30.71 greenness. S. West 49.11 35.88 GARISSA County 27.14 23.98 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the Balambala 16.24 17.46 month under review. Ijara worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Daadab 22.36 18.42 Fafi 30.88 26.79 Ijara 41.69 34.04 Lagdera 12.35 14.67 Dujis 26.82 27.07 ISIOLO County 13.58 13.98 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit I. North 12.3 12.7 during the month of October. This was stable when compared to last I. South 15.93 month. 15.54 TANA RIVER County 31.17 31.29 The county and all one of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation Bura 32.01 29.32 deficit during the month of October. Galole 29.09 30.74 Garsen 31.76 33.32 KAJIADO County 27.5 32.54 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central K. Central 18.35 19.58 maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month of October. K. East 23.77 29.98 K. North 27.55 41.84 K. South 24 29.76 K. West 37.12 42.99 LAIKIPIA County 27.32 37.63 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. L. East 24.22 37.53 Laikipia West improved to above normal vegetation greenness from at L. North 18.1 25.7 normal vegetation greenness while Laikipia North improved to 46.07 60.03 moderate vegetation deficit. L. West THARAKA County 38.38 37.56 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month NITHI Chuka 41.68 46.28 under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous Maara 47.94 49.42 month of September. Tharaka 34.09 30.48 WEST POKOT County 59.31 64.25 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Kacheliba 57.8 61.81 greenness during the month under review which was an stable when Kapenguria 67.98 73.79 compared with the previous month of September. Pokot South 68.63 75 Sigor 49.21 54.3 EMBU County 36.17 50.65 The county and all its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Manyatta 35.85 52.94 greenness except Mbeere South which recorded normal vegetation Mbeere 52.19 greenness. North 38.91 Mbeere 46.84 South 32.93 Runyenjes 42.55 58.95 County 35.04 37.97 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness which was stable Kitui Central 24.82 35.77 when compared to the previous month of September. Generally, there Kitui East 34.36 37.04 was improvement in vegetation greenness across the sub counties. Mwingi 35.32 37.9 KITUI Central Mwingi 29.87 30.31 North Mwingi 40.81 49.24 Kitui Rural 30.31 33.41 Kitui South 37.78 40.08 Kitui West 32.17 41.33 County 39.95 43.51 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month Kaiti 40.65 49.14 under review which was a stable trend as compared to September. Kibwezi East 32.73 35.62 MAKUENI Kibwezi 38.62 West 36.51 Kilome 25.98 34.94 Makueni 55.49 57.65 Mbooni 51.19 55.01 County 38.13 39.11 The county recorded normal vegetation a stability in vegetation Buuri 34.19 38.84 greenness during the month of October. Central 53.65 Imenti 56.8 MERU Igembe 33.26 Central 34.9 Igembe 21.35 North 19.69 Igembe 41.82 South 45 North Imenti 43.78 47.13 South Imenti 65.19 63.63 Tigania East 34.95 37.36 Tigania West 33.09 35.86 County 38.94 46.65 The county and three of its sub counties noted a stability at normal NYERI Kieni 42.17 44.44 vegetation greenness. Mathira improved from moderate vegetation Mathira 27.15 45.88 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Mukurweini 38.54 44.96 Othaya 43.93 59.03 Tetu 45.12 54.59 Township 11.91 32.31 County 25.45 18.21 The vegetation condition in the county worsened to severe vegetation KILIFI Ganze 18.85 12.15 deficit during the month of October from moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni 33.93 22.87 Magarini 23.47 17.92 Malindi 26.7 14.86 Kilifi-North 38.7 26.07 Rabai 50.22 36.33 Kilifi-South 52.97 40.29 KWALE County 36.8 30.07 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to Kinango 27.62 20.98 moderate vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness Lungalunga 52.24 42.06 during the month of October. Matuga 45.46 41.65 Msambweni 49.73 51.44 LAMU County 61.93 49.71 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Lamu East 58.22 43.79 greenness which was a worsening trend when compared to the previous Lamu West 64.08 53.14 month of September. TAITA County 27.5 27.65 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit TAVETA Mwatate 24.26 21.25 which was stable when compared to the previous month of September. Taveta 27.96 30.13 Wundanyi subcounty improved to normal vegetation greenness. Voi 27.72 27.76 Wundanyi 33.57 35.83 County 41.46 53 Narok-East 33.46 37.57 NAROK Emurua There an improvement in vegetation cover in the county to above Dikirr 65.18 78.88 normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Kilgoris 52.98 69.62 Narok-North 39.72 37.97 Narok-South 31.83 40.68 Narok-West 47.59 68.62 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in several sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification",
            "December_2022.pdf": "NOVEMBER 2022 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained critical in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of November 2022. The reported rains in pocket areas of the ASALs are yet to reverse the current drought situation. The situation may slightly improve especially on environmental indicators. This is attributable to four failed rain seasons coupled with delayed onset of the OND 2022 rains in most parts of the ASALs. The impact of sustained drought situation has seen the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance stand at 4.35 million. Risks of Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification Acute malnutrition continue to be reported in ASAL counties where 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished continue to access treatment. 1.1 Drought phase classification During the reporting month, only the county of Laikipia slightly improved to Alert phase leaving Kajiado, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. Seven (7) counties including; Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru and Laikipia are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 November Rainfall Performance Analysis of the November 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced depressed rainfall including Pastoral North East (PNE), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA), Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) and Pastoral North West (PNW) clusters received 50 of the November long term mean. The PNE counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received less than 50 of the October LTM. However, Garissa and Tana River counties received between 76-100 mm of rainfall. The SEMA counties; Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received Figure 2. November 2022 Rainfall Performance enhanced rainfall with some parts recording between 101-125 mm of rainfall. The CMA counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received between 50-75 mm of rainfall. The AGP cluster; Baringo and West Pokot did not receive notable rainfall during the month under review, however, Narok county received good rainfall between 76-100mm of rainfall amounts. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for December The rainfall outlook for the month of December is illustrated in figure 3. Most ASAL counties in the following clusters; PNE, SEMA, AGP and CMA livelihood zones including; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to received depressed rainfall. Parts of PNE, including Mandera and parts of Wajir and northern eastern parts of Marsabit are forecasted to recieve near average to below rainfall during the month of December. Parts of agropastoral clusters including southern parts of west Pokot and western parts of Baringo Figure 3. December 2022 Rainfall forecast counties are forecasted to recieve near average to below rainfall during the month of december. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for December 1.2 Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in November 2022 has slightly deteriorated as compared to the previous month of October 2022. Fig 4: VCI values for October 2022 and November VCI 2022 October 2022 November 2022 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) October 2022 and November 2022 The month of November 2022 indicated alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) counties as compared to the previous month of October 2022. The alarming deterioration associated with ongoing poor performance of October-November- December (OND) short rains. Despite the reported rains in pocket areas of the ASAL counties, positive impacts on vegetation rejuvenation is yet to be registered. Two (2) counties including; Isiolo and Kilifi were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following seven counties (7); Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Turkana, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni and Meru are in Moderate vegetation deficit. The following five (5) counties including; West Pokot, Embu, Nyeri, Lamu and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Only Baringo County recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) (8) Isiolo Wajir (Eldas, West) Samburu (East) Isiolo (North) Kilifi (Ganze, Kilifi Magarini, Malindi) Kwale (Kinango) Severe (7) (29) vegetation Mandera, Marsabit, Mandera (Banissa, East, Lafey, North, South, West) Marsabit deficit Wajir, Samburu, (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku) Wajir (East, North, South, Garissa, Kwale, Taita Tarbaj) Garissa (Balambala, Daadab, Lagdera, Dujis) Isiolo (South) Taveta Tana River (Bura) Kajiado (Central) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Kitui (Mwingi North) Meru (Igembe North) Nyeri (Township) Kilifi (Kaloleni, South) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi) Moderate (8) (36) vegetation Turkana, Tana River, Turkana (North) Samburu (North), Garissa (Fafi, Ijara), Tana River deficit Kajiado, Laikipia, (Galole, Garsen) Kajiado (East, North, South) Laikipia (East, North) Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui Makueni, Meru Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini), Kilifi (North, Rabai) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (East) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Narok (East) Normal (5) (24) vegetation West Pokot, Embu, Turkana (Central, East, Loima, South, West) Samburu (West), greenness Nyeri, Lamu, Narok Kajiado (West), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Makueni (Kaiti, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti) Nyeri (Mathira, Tetu), Kwale (Msambweni), Lamu (West) Narok (North, South) Vegetation (1) (16) greenness Baringo Baringo (Central, Eldama, Mogotio, North, South, Tiaty) Laikipia Above normal (West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Meru (South Imenti), Nyeri (Othaya), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok West) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with limited improvement realized compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the dry season grazing areas. Pasture deteriorated to poor condition in Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Kieni, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir counties Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, November 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Baringo Isiolo Baringo Isiolo Garissa Kitui Embu Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Garissa Kitui Laikipia Mandera Kajiado Kwale Meru Marsabit Kilifi Makueni Taita Taveta Narok Kwale Mandera Tharaka Nithi Kieni Laikipia Marsabit West Pokot Samburu Meru Narok Lamu Turkana Taita Taveta Kieni Wajir Tana River Samburu Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Turkana Lamu 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Taita Taveta County which reported good body condition for cattle only shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, November 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Isiolo Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Embu Kajiado Embu Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Garissa Kitui Kwale Marsabit Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Samburu Kitui Mandera Meru Tana River Kwale Marsabit Narok Turkana Laikipia Samburu Nyeri Wajir Makueni Tana River Taita Taveta Meru Turkana Tharaka Nithi Narok Wajir West Pokot Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production In most of the counties, milk production during the month under review showed a decreasing worsening trend as compared to the previous month of October. The following counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri and Tana River recorded an improving trend. Despite reported rains in some parts of the counties, the impacts on vegetation rejuvenation and milk production is yet to be realized. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. No county recorded above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, November 2022 Milk Baringo Garissa Embu Baringo Embu Kajiado Laikipia Isiolo Production Garissa Mandera Makueni Kilifi Isiolo Meru Marsabit Kitui Kajiado Nyeri Narok Kwale Kilifi Tana River Taita Taveta Samburu Kitui Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Wajir Laikipia Lamu Mandera NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of November remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the markets functioning fairly. 100 percent of the counties cattle prices were below normal with 7 counties reporting worsening trend. However, Kwale county reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. The following counties including Isiolo, Makueni, Narok, Tana River and Wajir reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2022 Cattle Prices Kwale West Pokot Baringo Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Tana River Isiolo Samburu Embu Makueni Kilifi Kajiado Mandera Garissa Narok Kitui Kwale Kajiado Tana River Laikipia Kilifi Wajir Makueni Kitui Mandera Laikipia Meru Meru Narok Nyeri Nyeri Taita Taveta Lamu Turkana Samburu West Pokot Garissa 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in all the ASAL counties were below LTA with a stable and worsening with 48 percent of counties recording below LTA goat prices. Consequently 4 counties are depicting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions Table 6.0: Goat Prices, November Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2022 Goat Kwale Embu Isiolo Embu Kajiado Baringo Samburu Garissa Tharaka Nithi Mandera Kitui Narok Tana River Kajiado Wajir Nyeri Kilifi Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Tana River Kwale Lamu Laikipia Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Lamu West Pokot Kitui Meru Baringo Garissa Meru Samburu Turkana Makueni 1.4 Crop production Coast Marginal counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale county, with the onset of the October-November-December season, households engaged in land preparation this month while those who had begun earlier engaging in planting and weeding. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: In Kitui county, land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones. However, the early-planted crops were in germination stage and in good condition, in parts of the county where early planted crops had withered due to moisture stress, farmers were forced to re-plant. In Makueni county, in both the Mixed farming and marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, majority of the farmers had planted, and crops had germinated, main agricultural activity in most of the farms was weeding, gapping and top-dressing. Cases of crop pests - fall army worm infestation was reported in across most parts of the County. In Tharaka Nithi county: planting and first weeding was ongoing for the OND season crops. About 90 of the farmers have planted considering the OND is the food production season for the County. The crop development stage was at four leaves stage for legumes and knee high for the cereal crops and were of good condition. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges particularly related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. 1.4.1 Maize prices In Kwale, Kilifi and Marsabit counties, the price of maize was at a worsening trend in the month under review while the 14 counties were at Stable and six counties exhibited an improving trend as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, November 2022 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Kwale Baringo Embu Kwale Narok Nyeri Meru Kilifi Garissa Samburu Isiolo Marsabit Kitui Tana River Wajir Isiolo Laikipia Garissa Makueni Kajiado Samburu Kitui Tana River Makueni Tharaka Nithi Mandera Wajir Narok Kilifi Turkana Laikipia Taita Taveta Mandera Tharaka Nithi Nyeri West Pokot Baringo 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 14 counties is currently above the LTA. Arid counties distances to household water access ranged between 3.1 kilometers (km) and 11.2 km with Laikipia recording lowest and Marsabit recording highest distances to household water access. Counties including; Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Lamu, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, November 2022 Distance Isiolo Baringo Embu Embu Baringo Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Garissa Kajiado West Pokot Kitui Laikipia Isiolo Kilifi household Kwale Meru Kitui Makueni s to main Makueni Tharaka Nithi Kwale Narok water Mandera West Pokot Laikipia Wajir Marsabit Mandera sources Narok Marsabit Nyeri Meru Samburu Nyeri Tana River Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Lamu Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi and West Pokot counties which are at improving trend due to the little showers received in those particular counties. The average trekking distance for livestock in Arid counties ranged between 4.2 km and 30.5 kilometers(km) with West Pokot recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 km to 10.2 km with Tharaka Nithi recording the lowest and Meru highest. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, November 2022 Distance from Lamu West Pokot Embu Embu Wajir West Pokot Baringo Meru Garissa Garissa Narok Turkana livestock Isiolo Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Laikipia Baringo grazing area to Kilifi Kajiado Kajiado Kitui Kilifi main water Kitui Kwale sources Kwale Makueni Laikipia Mandera Makueni Marsabit Mandera Meru Marsabit Nyeri Nyeri Lamu Samburu Samburu Tana River Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of a goat and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) displaying worsening conditions in most counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, November 2022 Terms of Isiolo Baringo Baringo Embu Kwale trade (ToT) Embu Garissa Kajiado Narok Garissa Mandera Kitui Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Makueni Turkana Kwale Laikipia Meru Makueni Samburu Isiolo Mandera Tana River Taita Taveta Meru Marsabit West Pokot Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Lamu Laikipia 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. About 61 percent of the ASAL counties recorded above average MUAC values contrary to less than 20 percent when the situation is normal. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November 2022 Indicator Current Trend Baringo Embu Narok Mandera Embu Tharaka-Nithi Kajiado Garissa Kilifi Narok Kajiado Wajir MUAC Nyeri Kwale Samburu Nyeri Kitui Kwale Kajiado Meru Laikipia Kilifi Meru Samburu Tharaka Nithi West-Pokot Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Lamu Tana River Kwale Wajir West Pokot Laikipia Mandera Makueni Taita Taveta Garissa Tana River Baringo Kitui Isiolo Turkana Turkana Makueni Taita-Taveta Marsabit Lamu 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of November 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, seven (7) counties including, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru, Lamu and Laikipia are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Embu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Kajiado, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, six (6) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, November 2022 Drought Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu Baringo, West Pokot Alert Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri Meru, Laikipia Alarm Garissa, Tana River Marsabit Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera Emergency None None None Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Support to livestock off-take (commercialslaughter in situ) Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Provision of water storage. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th November 2022 BARINGO County 72.67 56.99 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation Central 76.34 66.98 greenness however, there was slight decrease in VCI values when compared with the previous month of October. Eldama 71.57 66.98 Mogotio 68.6 54.37 North 74.99 56.93 South 72.23 57.98 Tiaty 72.79 54.52 MANDERA County 18.54 15.64 The county recorded worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate Banissa 16.34 17.96 vegetation condition during the last month of November. Mandera South and M East 11.24 10 Mandera West worsened to severe vegetation deficit Lafey 13.55 15.4 M North 18.93 17.84 M South 21.95 11.89 M West 22.31 17.66 TURKANA County 44.32 34.86 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to moderate T Central 46 42.83 vegetation deficit T. East 52.39 37.27 T. Loima 42.08 36.87 T. North 32.84 26.54 T. South 57.73 41.84 T. West 47.45 35.99 MARSABIT County 15.61 12.5 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of Laisaimis 15.79 11.77 October. Saku worsened to severe vegetation deficit form moderate vegetation Moyale 16.08 11.43 greenness. N. Horr 15.14 13.19 Saku 20.23 12.46 WAJIR County 22.81 13.84 The County worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation W East 26.07 14.83 deficit when compared to the previous month of October. W. Eldas 15.91 9.33 W. North 28.24 19.08 W. South 22.22 12.89 W. Tarbaj 28.93 16.9 W West 23.22 9.69 SAMBURU County 10.59 18.7 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit during the month under S East 30.71 9.31 review from moderate vegetation deficit in the last month of October S. North 49.11 23.26 S. West 23.22 41.47 GARISSA County 23.98 17.59 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit form moderate vegetation Balambala 17.46 11.49 deficit during the month under review. Daadab 18.42 13.77 Fafi 26.79 21.95 Ijara 34.04 21.71 Lagdera 14.67 10.26 Dujis 27.07 16.67 ISIOLO County 13.98 9.86 The county and tow its sub-counties recorded extreme vegetation deficit during I. North 12.7 9.46 the month under review compared to severe vegetation deficit during the I. South 15.93 10.46 month of October. TANA RIVER County 31.29 20.62 The county and all two of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit Bura 29.32 17.99 during the month of November. Bura worsened to severe vegetation deficit Galole 30.74 20.22 Garsen 33.32 23.1 KAJIADO County 32.54 26.3 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central maintained at K. Central 19.58 15.44 severe vegetation deficit during the month of November. K. East 29.98 23.79 K. North 41.84 31.99 K. South 29.76 23.97 K. West 42.99 35.29 LAIKIPIA County 37.63 32.04 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia L. East 37.53 31.34 West remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. L. North 25.7 21.64 L. West 60.03 51.85 THARAKA County 37.56 26.19 The county worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Tharaka subcounty NITHI Chuka 46.28 39.26 worsened to severe vegetation greenness. Maara 49.42 41.89 Tharaka 30.48 16.24 WEST POKOT County 64.25 47.2 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Kacheliba 61.81 40.59 during the month under review which was a decrease when compared with the Kapenguria 73.79 57.72 previous month of October. Pokot South 75 66.9 Sigor 54.3 38.71 EMBU County 50.65 41.19 The county and two its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Manyatta 52.94 51.3 except manyatta and Runyenjes which recorded above normal vegetation Mbeere North 52.19 38.92 greenness. Mbeere South 46.84 36.31 Runyenjes 58.95 53.21 County 37.97 24.67 The county deteriorates to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under Kitui Central 35.77 25.99 review from normal vegetation greenness in the previous month of October. KITUI Kitui East 37.04 23.54 Mwingi 37.9 22.49 Mwingi North 30.31 19.05 Mwingi West 49.24 34.41 Kitui Rural 33.41 24.26 Kitui South 40.08 26.4 Kitui West 41.33 29.65 County 43.51 33.34 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under Kaiti 49.14 38.34 review compared to normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. MAKUENI Kibwezi East 35.62 26.26 Kibwezi West 38.62 31.82 Kilome 34.94 26.93 Makueni 57.65 43.31 55.01 40.73 Mbooni County 39.11 29.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under Buuri 38.84 36.64 review compared to normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Central Imenti 53.65 40.6 Igembe 33.26 23.05 Igembe North 21.35 14.55 Igembe South 41.82 25.48 North Imenti 47.13 31.15 South Imenti 63.63 52.4 Tigania East 37.36 26.3 Tigania West 35.86 26.87 NYERI County 46.65 36.65 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness during the month Kieni 44.44 34.39 of November. Mathira 45.88 35.64 Mukurweini 44.96 28.22 Othaya 59.03 55.09 Tetu 54.59 47.22 Township 32.31 12.72 County 18.21 7.36 The vegetation condition in the county worsened to extreme vegetation deficit KILIFI Ganze 12.15 2.48 during the month of November from severe vegetation deficit. Kaloleni 22.87 13.62 Magarini 17.92 6.21 Malindi 14.86 8.2 Kilifi-North 26.07 20.44 Rabai 36.33 21.37 Kilifi-South 40.29 18.14 KWALE County 30.07 17.33 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to severe Kinango 20.98 9.15 vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation Lungalunga 42.06 24.56 greenness during the month of November. Matuga 41.65 32.65 Msambweni 51.44 40.92 LAMU County 49.71 37.41 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Lamu East 43.79 31.76 which was a worsening trend when compared to the previous month of October. Lamu West 53.14 40.68 County 27.65 17.95 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit which TAITA TAVETA Mwatate 21.25 11.83 was a decrease when compared to the previous month of October. Taveta 30.13 21.01 Voi 27.76 17.94 Wundanyi 35.83 23.79 County 53 48.29 Narok-East 37.57 34.05 NAROK There a deterioration in vegetation cover in the county to moderate vegetation Emurua Dikirr 78.88 69.31 deficit during the month of November. Kilgoris 69.62 64.44 Narok-North 37.97 43.32 Narok-South 40.68 36.78 Narok-West 68.62 58.21 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery. Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. 1. NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification"
        }
    },
    "Baringo Long Rains": {
        "Baringo Long Rains": {
            "Baringo_County_LRA_2017.pdf": "1.1 County Background - Page 4\n1.2 Objectives And Approach - Page 4\n2.0 Drivers Of Food And Nutrition Security In The County 2.1 Rainfall Performance........................................................................................................ 5 - Page 5\n3.0 Impacts Of Drivers On Acute Food And Nutrition Security - Page 6\n3.1 Availability 3.1.1. Crop production ........................................................................................................ 6 3.1.2 Livestock production ................................................................................................. 8 3.2 Access............................................................................................................................. 12 3.2.1 Markets .................................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Terms of trade .......................................................................................................... 13 3.2.3 Income sources ........................................................................................................ 13 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization ................................................................ 14 - Page 6\n3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Health and Nutrition ................................................................................................ 16 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene ............................................................................................ 17 - Page 16\n3.4 Trends Of Key Food Security Indicators - Page 17\n3.5 Education - Page 18\n4.0 Food Security Prognosis - Page 20\n4.1 Assumptions - Page 20\n4.2 Food Security Outcomes For July, August And September - Page 20\n4.3 Food Security Outcomes For October, November And December - Page 21\n5.0 Conclusion And Interventions - Page 21\n5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase classification .................................................................................................. 21 5.1.2 Summary of findings ............................................................................................... 21 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking.................................................................................................. 22 - Page 21\n5.2 On-Going Interventions 5.2.1 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................ 22 - Page 22\n5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions ................................................................................................... 26 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................ 27 3 4 2 2 % 4 3 4 % % 3 1 % P asto ral-all sp ecies M ixed farm in g A gro-p asto ral Irrig ated crop p in g 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County is situated in the North- Western part of the country and borders Uasin Gishu County to the south-west, Kericho and Nakuru Counties to the south, Laikipia County to the east, West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet Counties to the west and Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north. The county spans an area of 11,015.3 square kilometers, 165 square kilometres of which is covered by lakes Bogoria, Kamnarok, 94 and Baringo. It has a population of 703,697 (KNBS, projected, 2016). Administratively, it is Figure 1: Population by livelihood zones divided in to six sub-counties namely: Marigat, East Pokot, Baringo North, Koibatek and Mogotio. It comprises four livelihood zones (Figure 1). 1.2 Objectives and approach Objectives The assessment\u2019s main objective was to analyze the impact of the 2017 long rains on food and nutrition security, taking into account the cumulative impacts of the past three seasons and including other shocks and hazards. Specifically, it sought to determine the impact of the season on food utilization, access and availability by considering the contributing factors to food insecurity and food security outcomes. It also explored the impact of the season on the main food security-related sectors including agriculture, livestock, education and water. Other sectors included health, nutrition, markets and trade from which information would be used to inform sectoral response mechanisms. Finally the assessment report outlined the on- going interventions and also provides interventions that should be put in place immediately, at medium- and long-term. Approach All the four livelihood zones were covered during the assessment and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) used to classify severity and causes of food insecurity which has the ability to compare across time and space. Data was collected through the use of questionnaires from 270 households in 9 sentinel sites, one-on-one interviews from key informants, transect drive and observation. Secondary data on livestock and food commodity prices, nutrition data from SMART-survey was also corroborated and vegetation condition. The assessment was conducted from 10th July 2017 to 14th July 2017 which involved the technical county steering group members. The data was analyzed at both livelihood zone and sub-county level and a sectoral county report was generated before endorsement and validation by the county steering group. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The onset of the long rains season was late in the third dekad of March compared to the first dekad normally. Most parts of the county including pastoral-all species, agro-pastoral and upper parts of the mixed farming livelihood zone received below-normal rainfall of between 50-75 percent of normal (Figure 2). However, the lower part of the mixed farming livelihood zone around Eldama Ravine and some parts of Mogotio received between 75-90 percent of normal rainfall. The spatial distribution was fairly even. However, the temporal distribution was poor as rainy days were punctuated by dry spells across the season. The cessation was in the second dekad of June although off-season showers were being experienced in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones. 2.2 Insecurity Figure 2: Rainfall performance Insecurity has been reported along the borders of East Pokot sub-county with Marakwet East, Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties and also in Kapedo along the border of the county with Turkana County. Pastoralists have not been able to access pasture in these areas and have therefore been forced to move farther away. 2.3 Fall army worm infestation A fall army worm out-break was reported in all livelihood zones across the county and is likely to significantly reduce the maize production since 12,000 hectares were affected. Given that the long rains season is the most relied upon for crop production accounting for over 80 percent of total annual production, the deficit will result in significant food consumption gaps. 2.3 Poor terms of trade Livestock prices were below-average amid high food commodity prices. Households\u2019 purchasing power had therefore been eroded particularly because most households were currently relying on market purchases for food in the agro-pastoral, pastoral-all species and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. 5 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON ACUTE FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Food availability in Baringo County takes into account crop production in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agro-pastoral livelihood zones and livestock production in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone. It considers food stocks available at both market and household levels in crop production while in livestock production, livestock body condition, forage and milk availability are considered. 3.1.1. Crop production Introduction The long rains season is the most dependable for crop production in Baringo County. The main crops grown include maize, beans, finger millet and Irish potatoes. Upland rice is grown in Marigat sub-county. Maize contributes about 63 percent of food to household in the agro pastoral livelihood zones and while in the irrigated zones, commercial maize contributes about 31 percent food. In the mixed farming maize contributes 21 percent of food. Rain-fed crop production The acreage for maize and beans reduced by 13.2 and 12.8 percent of their long-term average while that of finger millet increased by 22.5 percent as shown in table 1 below. Farmers delayed planting because of the delayed onset. There was a dry spell that followed after the onset of the rains that made the first-planted seeds to dry up. Most farmers did not replant after that. The acreage of finger millet increased because the farmers were provided with farm inputs by the national government and the county government conducted enhanced campaigns for drought-tolerant crops. Maize and beans projected production reduced by 46.2 and 17.1 percent of their long-term averages. Maize production reduced due to delayed and subdued rains coupled with a fall army worm infestation. Beans\u2019 production reduced due to the fact that most beans aborted their flowers during the dry period between 20th May and 18th June when beans were between the flowering and podding stages. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2017Long rains Long Term Average during 2017 season production (5 year) production Average (5 year) Long rains during the Long (90 kg bags) season area planted during rains season the Long rains Projected (Ha) (90 kg bags) season (Ha) 1. Maize 35,432 40,799 430,388 800,650 2. Beans 20,681 23,729 221,000 266,458 3. Finger millet 5,816 4,747 35,890 37,716 Irrigated crop production The area under irrigation for maize, beans, tomatoes and water melons reduced by 32.5, 12.8, 27.4 and 20.8 percent respectively of their long-term averages (Table 2). The main reasons for the reduction included low water volumes in the major rivers in the county including Perkerra, Molo, Endao and Waseges due to low recharge from the rains. Additionally, in Baringo North, the acreage under irrigated maize was reduced as most farmers opted for cowpea and banana production due to higher returns particularly in Kiboi and Barwesa irrigation schemes. Other reasons included destruction of the irrigation infrastructure in Cheraik and Chepness irrigation schemes in Eldama Ravine sub-county. The reduced acreage 6 resulted in the decreased of all four crops by 58.1, 52.2, 24.6 and 62.2 percent of their normal production respectively. Table 2: Irrigated crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2017 Long rains Long Term Average during the 2017 Average (3 years) season production (3 years) production Long rains area planted during (90 kg bags/MT) during 2017 Long season (ha) Long rains season Projected rains season (ha) (90 kg bags/MT) Maize 1163 1672 24,179 57,739 Beans 122 127 1,215 2,540 Tomatoes 61 84 430 570 Water melons 67 84 1,310 3,470 Main cereal stocks All cereal stocks are above-average except for maize (Table 3) in the county. Maize stocks were at 54 percent of their LTA, while rice, millet and sorghum stocks were 12.8, 67 and 18.7 percent above their LTAs respectively. There had been a deficit in maize production from previous seasons and imports, so the other cereals were increased in a bid to respond to the deficit. Table 3: Main cereals stock Commodity (90 kg bags) Period Households Traders Millers Total Maize Current 80,190 28,540 5225 113,955 LTA 158,003 43,359 9532 210,894 Rice (in 50 kg bags) Current 0 2,190 0 2,190 LTA 0 1,942 0 1,942 Millet Current 4586 443 4 5,033 LTA 2534 460 14 3,008 Sorghum Current 116 132 0 248 LTA 88 111 10 209 Farmers held only half (50.7%) of their normal maize stocks as most sold their produce to purchase farm inputs. Moreover, over 85 percent of the stocks held were in the mixed farming livelihood while households in the rest of the livelihood zones were relying on markets. However, stocks of millet and sorghum were 81 and 32 percent respectively above their LTAs as they had not been released to the markets since they were acting as food reserves given that maize stocks had declined. Households did not also have any rice stocks since the crop was mainly grown for seed. Traders held 34 percent lower-than-normal stocks of maize but 12.8, four and 19 percent above-average stocks of rice, millet and sorghum respectively. Maize was sourced from outside the county so when the prices increased, traders reduced their stocks. Traders also increased stocks of rice to provide an alternative to maize which was in limited supply. They also stocked up more sorghum because households were resorting to milling the commodity to supplement maize fluor and was also the reason why millers did not have it in stock since it was being purchased directly from them. Millet stocks were normal for this time of the year. 7 3.1.2 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock types found in the county include cattle, camel, goats, sheep, honey bees and poultry. The long rains season is significant for livestock production because it rejuvenates forage and recharges water sources. In-migration of livestock from dry-season grazing areas is usually contingent on the performance of the long rains and normally coincides with calving that increases milk availability at household level. Table 4 below illustrates the significance of livestock production to food and income in the county. Table 4: Contribution of livestock production to food and income in Baringo County Livelihood zone % contribution to Food Income Mixed farming 25 23 Irrigated cropping 25 8 Agro-pastoral 20 50 Pastoral-all species 21 88 Forage condition Forage condition was below normal across all livelihood zones in the county. The pasture condition was below normal due to poor rejuvenation. Although the rains received may have been sufficient to enable rejuvenation, the pastures had been depleted due to three successive failed seasons, making it difficult to reverse the negative impacts. The available pasture is already depleted in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone and is projected to be depleted by August across the rest of the zones while normally it would last at least until the onset of the short rains season. Browse condition was also below normal for this time of the year (Table 5). It is expected to be depleted by the end of July in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones and by mid-August in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zone. The main factors limiting access to pasture include insecurity and cattle rustling along the borders of the county with Turkana and Elgeyo Marakwet counties and also along the border of Tiaty sub-county with Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties. Table 5: Forage condition Pasture Browse Livelihood Condition How long to last Factors Condition How long to last Factors zone (Months) limiting (Months) limiting access access Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Fair to Good 1 5 months None Fair Good 1 month 5 months None farming poor month1 (December) (Mid- (December) month August) (Mid- August) Irrigated Fair to Good 1.5 6 months None Fair Good 1 month 5 months None cropping poor months (January) (Mid- (December) (end of August) August) Agro- Poor Good 3 weeks 4 months Limited Poor Good 2 weeks 2 months Browse pastoral (end of (November) water (end of (September) scarcity July) July) Pastoral- Depleted Good N/A 3 months Insecurity, Poor Good 2 weeks 2 months Browse all species (October) pasture (end of (September) scarcity scarcity July) 8 Livestock productivity Livestock body condition The body condition of all livestock types ranged mostly between fair and good. However, in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone, it was poor as pasture had been completely depleted lengthening the distances to grazing areas. The trend in body condition for cattle was likely to further deteriorate particularly in the pastoral livelihood zone where pasture was already depleted. Although there are off-season rains in the zone, they are unlikely to rejuvenate pasture because the level of depletion of was quite high. However, the goats\u2019 body condition across all livelihood zones was likely to remain stable as browse was still available and will be further improved by the off-season rains. Birth rate The birth rates were slightly below-normal for all livestock species across all livelihood zones currently, at about 1.2 compared to the normal 3. The reduction could be associated with the negative impacts of three consecutive failed seasons which have reduced forage and water availability. Additionally, the pastoral-all species livelihood zone reported abortions due to the increased stress of accessing pasture that could also have contributed to the reduction. Tropical livestock units (TLUs) There was a reduction in TLUs for both poor- and medium-income households across all livelihood zones compared to normal (Table 6). Reduced birth rates, abortions and livestock mortalities were the main reasons for the reduction. Table 6: Tropical livestock units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 1.5 2.8 4.2 4.5 Irrigated cropping 2 3.2 4 4.5 Agro-pastoral 2 3.2 3.05 6 Pastoral-all species 2.5 3.6 4.1 1.5-6 Milk production and consumption Below normal forage availability and cattle migrations had resulted in lower-than-normal milk production and consequently consumption (Table 7). There was virtually no milk production in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone. However, they were importing milk from the mixed farming livelihood zone. The reduction had occasioned a deficit in milk supply and a hike in its prices across all livelihood zones. Table 7: Milk production and consumption Livelihood zone Milk Production Milk consumption Prices (Ksh)/Litre (Litres)/Household (Litres) per Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed farming 3-5 10 1.5 2 60 50 Irrigated cropping 3-5 8 1.5 2 70 50 Agro-pastoral 0.5-1 6 1 1.8 95 60 Pastoral-all N/A 3 0.7 1.8 120 60 species 9 Water for Livestock The main sources of water currently in use include boreholes, rivers Amaya, Kerio, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Waseges and Mukutani and Lakes Bogoria, Baringo, Kamnarok and 94. The long rains recharged most of the water sources only to 30-50 percent due to lower-than- normal amounts. Distances to water sources have therefore increased (Table 8) with the available water projected to last up to the end of July in the pastoral-all species and agro- pastoral livelihood zones, up to the end of August in the irrigated farming zone and up to September in the mixed farming livelihood zones. Table 8: Water for livestock Livelihood Sources Return average Expected duration to Watering zone distances (km) last (months) frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Streams, Streams, 1-3.5 1-1.5 3 months Throughout Twice Twice farming Rivers, Rivers, daily daily springs, springs, piped piped water, water, boreholes, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, Rivers, 1-3.5 1-1.5 1-2 Throughout Twice Twice cropping shallow shallow months daily daily wells and wells and springs. springs. Agro- water Streams, 4-10 1-3 1month 3 months 2 days 2 days pastoral pans, water boreholes pans, boreholes Pastoral- Water- Water- 6-15 1-4 3 weeks 2 months 2 days 2 days all species pans, pans, except in bore-holes bore-holes Boreholes Migration Migration had been witnessed both within the county and out-migration to other counties in search of pasture while others were moved in fear of insecurity which was not normal for this time of the year. Table 9 below shows the current migratory routes in the county. Table 9: Migration routes Sub-county Migration routes Livestock species and reasons Baringo Intra-migration from lowlands to mid lowlands Cattle in search of central pastures Baringo B/South \u2013Marigat \u2013Mukutani and along the showers of L. Baringo and Cattle in search of south lake Bogoria pastures and Mukutani to other wards and Mogotio insecurity fears Baringo (a) Sibilo and Yatya to Kalabata in Bartabwa for pastures Cattle in search of north (b) Barwessa towards Kerio River areas for pastures pastures and (c) Yatya towards Sibilo and Bartum Location due to insecurity insecurity fears (d) Saimo soi \u2013 Kerio valley area (e) There was no inward migration Mogotio (i) Kamar, Molos, Radat and Majimoto to L.Bogoria and Loboi areas. Cattle in search of (ii) Sagasagik, Kiptoim and Rosoga to Kiplombe, Lembus and Maji pastures mazuri forests in E/Ravine Subcounty forests. 10 Sub-county Migration routes Livestock species and reasons (iii) Sinende, Kabuswo and Kapnosgei towards Laikipia, Mochongoi, Banita and Menengai Crater in Nakuru County. Tiaty To Arabal, Mukutani and Nadome in Turkana. Cattle, sheep and -Rugus/Komolion-Kiserian-Mukutani goats in search of -Kolloa-Silale-Nadome pastures -Churo-Laikipia and Sambu -From Orus and Amaya have are still in Arabal and Mukutani. - Outward migration towards Elgeyo Marakwet and Laikipia -Kapau, Napur, Chepelow and Chamatasi to Pkatil Hills, Chesawach and Kwol. Koibatek -Sagat,Chepnes, Muserechi, Mandina, Esageri to Kiplombe forests. -Nakuru County to the sub-county forests With the on-going off-season rains in the county, it is expected that the migrated livestock will come back home and increase milk production at household level due to rejuvenated pasture. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities There were reported livestock diseases in the county as indicated in Table 10 below. However, disease incidences were within the normal ranges. The mortality rate for sheep and goats was four percent while that of cattle was five percent. The mortalities were attributed to drought and diseases due to weakened livestock body condition. Table 10: Livestock diseases Disease Area reported Sub-county Livestock Livestock lost Contagious Saimo Soi, Baringo 170 shoats Caprine north Pleuro- Kamurio, Tiaty Pneumonia (CCPP) Mukutani, Marigat, Ilchamus Nyimbei, Baringo Goats Loboi, south Oterit, Emining, Kimose, Radat Mogotio Pestes des Marigat, mukutani, salabani Baringo 73 shoats Petits south Ruminants Tirioko, Katuwit, Koloa Tiaty (PPR) Sheep/goats Saimo soi Baringo north Salawa, Kaptara Baringo central East Coast Saimo soi Baringo 35 cattle Fever north Cattle Mochongoi, Mukutani Baringo south Amaya, Tiaty Heart Ribko, Kamurio, Tiaty Goats 187 shoats water Arabal, Mochongoi Baringo south Red Water Tirioko, Kamurio, Pkaruru Tiaty Cattle 2 cattle 11 Disease Area reported Sub-county Livestock Livestock lost Foot and Mogotio, Sogon, Mogotio Mouth Tirioko and Ribko and Kerio Valley, Tiaty Disease (FMD) Tulwongoi, Lembus Central Eldama Cattle location,Kiplombe,Lebolos,Naitili,Kirobon, ravine Parts of Mumberes Ilchamus, Mochongoi Baringo south New Castle Marigat, Baringo Poultry 1,836 chicken Disease south Saimo soi, Kabartonjo Baringo north Salawa, Kabarnet Baringo central Poor body condition in cattle, lower-than-normal birth rates and TLUs have resulted in low milk availability and lower-than-normal consumption at household level for approximately 20 and 21 percent of the population in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones who rely on it for food particularly for children aged below five years. 3.2 Access Food access in the county can be described by the markets\u2019 functionality particularly for households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones whose main source of food currently is markets. Therefore food commodity prices, income sources and terms of trade (a proxy indicator for determining purchasing power) are discussed in this section. Others include existence of food consumption gaps if any and the mechanisms employed to bridge them. 3.2.1 Markets Market operations The main markets for livestock include Marigat, Barwesa, Amaya, Kollowa, Nginyang, Kinyach, Tangulbei and Amaya. Others include Loruk and Kabel. The main ones for crops include Kollowa, Churo, Nginyang, Amaya, Kabartonjo, Barwesa, Kipsamaran and Marigat. Others include Kabel Mochongoi, Mogotio, Emining, Maji Moto and Cheberen. Most markets were operational except Loruk and Kinyach due to fear of insecurity. Lower-than- average supplies were also evident in Kollowa, Churo, Nginyang and Amaya due to the same reasons and the number of buyers was fewer compared to normal. Maize prices Maize prices were 67 and 107.7 percent Average (2012-2016) 2016 2017 higher than the 2012-2016 LTA (Figure 3) 90 and the price recorded in June last year. The 80 high prices were occassioned by low ) g 70 supplies. Prices were highest in the pastoral- k / 60 all species livelihood zone and least in the .h s 50 K mixed farming livelihood zone. Maize ( e 40 prices are likely to remain relatively stable c ir 30 P although higher-than-normal through to 20 September when some harvests will be 10 0 realized. Marginal decreases in prices will Jan FebMarAprMay Jun Jul AugSepOctNovDec occur after that when harvests reach the Figure 3: Maize price 12 13 ).hsK( ecirP 3 2 2 1 1 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 A v Ja e n r a F g e e b ( M 2 0 a r 1 2 A - p 2 r 0 M 1 6 a y ) Ju n Ju l 2 0 A 1 u 7 g S e p O c 2 t 0 N 1 o 6 v D e c Figure 4: Goat Prices 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb MarAprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep OctNovDec eziam fo smargoliK taog a rof degnahcxe markets coupled with imports from neighbouring counties who will also have harvested the crop. Goat prices The average goat prices were 44 and 41 percent lower than the price recorded at a similar time last year and the 2012-2016 LTA respectively (Figure 4). Browse conditions and availability were below normal thereby increasing stress on goats as they trekked longer distances to access food. The prices were highest and lowest in the mixed farming and pastoral-all species livelihood zones respectively. They were expected to increase slightly through to September as there were currently off-season rains that were being experienced in the county that would renew browse and improve the goats\u2019 body conditions. However, they will maintain a below-average trend. 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade (TOT) were 73 and 65 percent below last year\u2019s price at a similar period and the Average (2012-2016) 2017 2016 2012-2016 LTA (Figure 5). The implication of the reduction was that households could currently purchase lower quantities of maize compared to last year and at normal times with the proceeds from the sale of a goat. The reduction was occasioned by low goat prices against high maize prices. The highest and lowest TOT was reported in the mixed farming and pastoral-all species livelihood zones respectively. A slight improvement is expected in the TOT through to September as goat prices are expected to increase against stable maize prices. Figure 5: Terms of trade 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of income in the county include livestock and food-crop production. Income from livestock production had significantly reduced and a majority of households (88 %) in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone and half of those in the agro-pastoral one have been considerably affected. The reduction in income has occurred at a time when they are wholly dependent on markets for food and has therefore compromised access to food in these zones. Likewise, in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones (where 60 and 35 percent respectively of the households rely on food-crop production for income, the reduced production had consequently resulted in reduced income. As a coping mechanism, households opted for other income-generating activities such as the sale of charcoal, which will result in further deforestation of already degraded rangelands. 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization Water availability The three major water sources currently in use in the county include boreholes, water pans and springs across all livelihood zones (Table 11). Although they are the normal sources for this time of the year, the operational sources are less because of below-normal recharge. The long rains season recharged the water sources up to between 30 to 50 percent across all livelihood zones. Other sources normally in use include streams, rivers and shallow wells. There was also reduced flow in the major rivers such as Perkerra, Kerio, Amaya, Kiserian, Endao, Molo and Nginyang which had resulted in reduction in irrigated crop production. The main reasons behind the non-operational water sources included poor recharge rates from the rains, high evaporation rates and wear and tear due to over-use emanating from high demand from both humans and livestock. Other reasons were more of a perennial nature such as failure to pay electricity/fuel bills so supply of water was cut off and poor management of water facilities. Table 11: Water availability Ward/ Water No. of No. of Projected Normal % of full Locality of Livelihoo Source Normal Current Duration Duratio Capacity Non- d zone (Three Operationa Operationa (Operationa n that Recharge operational (3) l l Sources l Sources) water d by the Water major last in Rains Sources sources months ) Pastoral Bore 76 68 Over 3 Over 6 Permanent Tiringongwoni holes Months months source n BH, Kirim Bh and Sosionde BH Water 63 36 1 \u2013 1 \u00bd 3 \u2013 4 30% - Kirim, Kasiela, Pans Months 50% Endao Springs 10 - 4 - 9 Months 3 \u2013 4 20 % - Months 30% Agro - Bore 7 12 Over 3 Over 6 Permanent Pastoral holes Months months source Water 19 8 1 \u2013 1 \u00bd 3 \u2013 4 30% - Pans Months 50% Springs 18 3 1 \u2013 1 \u00bd Over 6 months Mixed Bore 33 30 Over 3 Over 6 Permanent Farming holes Months months source Springs 135 133 2 \u2013 2 \u00bd 3 \u2013 4 30% - Months 40% Rivers 6 6 2 \u2013 2 \u00bd 3 \u2013 4 30% - Months 50% Irrigated Rivers 6 6 3months Over 6 30% -40% Cropping months Shallow 8 3 3months Over 6 Reducing Perkerrra, wells months Discharge Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamp 3 3 Over 3 s Months 14 Figure 6: Food consumption score 15 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .3 M a y P 8 , 2 0 1 o o r 6 9 0 .7 B o r d e r lin e A c 1 c 4 e p M t a a b 2 6 .2 y , 2 0 le 1 7 5 9 .8 Water access and utilization The below-optimal recharge of water sources had resulted in increased distances to water sources as some had dried up, others had broken down while some had poor quality of water. Insecurity also posed a challenge in access to water along borders of the county and Turkana County, and along borders of Tiaty (East Pokot sub-county) with Baringo North/Baringo South and Marakwet East sub-counties. The consumption of water at household level consequently reduced as the waiting time at water sources increased due to high concentration of people and low discharge at water points (Table 12). Table 12: Water access and utilization Livelihood zone Return Distance to Cost of Water at Waiting Time at Average Water Water for Domestic Source (Ksh. Per Water Source Consumption Use (Km) 20litres) (Minutes) (Litres/person/day) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 4 - 5 8 \u2013 10 2 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 - 20 12 - 15 Agro-pastoral 3 - 4 6 \u2013 9 2 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 - 20 12 - 15 Mixed farming 0.5 \u2013 2.5 1.5 \u2013 3.5 2 \u2013 5 3 \u2013 5 2 - 4 5 - 7 20 - 25 15 - 20 Irrigated cropping 0.5 - 1.5 0.8 \u2013 2.2 2 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 3 1 - 3 20 - 25 20 - 25 3.2.5 Food consumption There was a reduction in dietary diversity, nutritive value and food frequency in the county compared to a similar period last year as illustrated by the reduction in the proportion of households in the acceptable food consumption score category (Figure 6). Approximately 59.8 percent of households had acceptable consumption in May 2017 compared to 90.7 in May 2016. The implication was that there had been a reduction in the number of households who were consuming at least a staple and vegetables daily, complemented by frequent consumption of pulses and oil at least four times a week. 3.2.6 Coping strategy The mean coping strategy index (CSI) for May 2017 was 18.6 compared with 12.9 at a similar time last year implying that more severe coping mechanisms were being employed more frequently (FSOM, May 2017). The deterioration pointed to significant food Figure 7: Coping strategies index consumption gaps as even the most severe coping strategies were the ones being employed most frequently (restriction of food consumption by adults to allow more for children). The least-employed consumption-based coping mechanism was the reduction of the number of meals. Additionally, approximately 45.2 and 24.6 percent of households were employing stressed and crisis livelihood-based coping strategies respectively (Figure 7). 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Health and Nutrition The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition as measured by mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in June was 66.7 percent above the 2012-2016 LTA and more than double compared to similar last year. The implication was a deterioration in the nutritional status of children aged below five years owed to the reduced food intake, dietary diversity and nutritive value as recorded in the food consumption score. Other reasons include poor child-care practices as only 35.5 percent of children were exclusively breast-fed. Morbidity Patterns Acute respiratory tract infections, diarhoea and malaria were the most prevalent diseases among children aged below five years and the general population across all livelihood zones. 16 5 4)aeoh3rraiD(2 sesaC1 fo .oN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ja n Fe bM a la M a rria 2 0 1 7 A p r M Ma a yla ria Ju n 2 0 1 6 Ju lyD ia A urrh go e a Se p 2 0 1 7 O ctD N o via rrh o e D e ca 2 0 1 6 1 1 1 1 8 6 4 2 0 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 )airalaM( sesac fo.oN Figure 8: Morbidity patterns There was a decrease in malaria, upper respiratory tract infections and diarrhoea among children aged below five years and the general population. Malaria cases decreased due to the mass distribution of mosquito nets that had been carried out and was still on-going. However, the others decreased because there was less reporting of the diseases in the facilities since there was a nurse\u2019s strike and some facilities had been closed due to insecurity particularly in East Pokot sub-county. Immunization and Vitamin A coverage The coverage of the fully immunized child (Table 13), vitamin A coverage, OPV 1, OPV 3 and measles decreased in May 2017 compared to a similar time last year due to interruption of health services delivery owed to the nurses\u2019 strike and closure of facilities due to insecurity in East Pokot sub-county. Distances to health facilities also increased due to the closure of these facilities. Considering that the distances to water sources had also increased, the work- load on women charged with looking for food and water coupled with child care increased. Women therefore tended to prioritize these tasks as opposed to vaccination and immunization, particularly also because they had to walk further than normal to access these services. Table 13: Immunization coverage Year Percentage of fully immunized Percentage of children children in the County immunized against the mentioned Source DHIS MOH 710 Vaccines diseases in the county and Immunizations Source: Nutrition survey January to June 2017 58.7 1. OPV 1 59.1 2. OPV 3 53.1 3. Measles 59.3 January to June 2016 66.86 1. OPV 1 75.1 2. OPV 3 62.2 3. Measles 69.1 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene Approximately only 40-50 percent of households use protected water sources while only 3-5 percent treat water before consumption who were concentrated in urban areas and some parts of the mixed farming livelihood zone. The latrine coverage was seven, 16, 32 and 45 percent in the pastoral-all species, agro-pastoral, irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. With latrine coverage being below the recommended level and approximately half of households obtaining water from unprotected water sources, diarrhoeal diseases were reported to have ranked high in the morbidity trends in the county. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 14: Food security trends Indicator Short rains assessment, Feb 2017 Long rains assessment, July 2017 Maize stocks held by 69 (Long rains assessment, July 50.7 households (%) (mixed 2016) farming) Livestock body Fair to good Poor for cattle, Fair to good for the condition rest Water consumption Pastoral-all species: 10-15 Pastoral-all species: 10-15 (litres per person per day) Agro-pastoral:10-15 Agro-pastoral: 10-15 Mixed farming: 15-20 Mixed farming: 15-20 Irrigated cropping: 20-25 Irrigated cropping: 20-25 Price of maize (Ksh. per 60 81 kg) Mid-upper arm 18 25 circumference (MUAC) Terms of trade 40 18 (number of kilograms purchased from the proceeds of the sale of a goat) Coping strategy index 12.9 (May 2016) 18.6 (May 2017) Food consumption score (May 2016) (May 2017) (percent) Poor 1.3 Poor 14 Borderline 8 Borderline 26.2 Acceptable 90.7 Acceptable 59.8 17 3.5 Education Access Enrolments in primary and secondary schools remained constant, with a 0.3 percent increase in primary, and 0.5 increase in secondary between Term I and Term II. There was a slight (1.5%) increase in ECD over the same period. (Table 15). Table 15: Enrolment in schools Term I 2017 Term II 2017 (includes new students registered and drop-outs since Term I 2017) Enrolment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECD 27160 25570 52511 27611 25915 53526 Primary 73359 67929 141288 73501 68167 141668 Secondary 20322 18593 38920 20422 18693 39115 Participation Participation in the county was above 85 percent for most schools (Table 16). 40 Schools, affecting over 52, 360 learners (25, 626 Female) were temporarily closed due to insecurity in Kapedo along the boundary between Baringo and Turkana counties, borders of Tiaty with Baringo North, Baringo South and Marakwet East sub-counties, but had later been re-opened. 12 schools in Eldume, Sandai, Kimorok, Kapndasum and Arabal were hosting pupils who had ran away from the conflict areas. Attendance had remained relatively stable due to the presence of the school meals program in the county. Table 16: School attendance Term III 2016 Term I 2017 Term II 2017 Indicator November 2016 January 2017 February March 2017 May 2017 June 2017 2017 School Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls attendanc e ECD 26620 24890 26677 24974 2688 2502 2674 2506 2714 2528 2705 2519 8 8 2 1 7 3 3 2 Primary 70431 64512 65304 58439 6679 6047 6679 6047 6621 5997 6621 5997 3 7 3 7 0 3 0 3 Secondar 20099 18136 19580 17747 1975 1803 2006 1833 2010 1841 2014 1842 y 5 7 8 3 5 6 4 3 Attendance for ECD and secondary remained stable between Term III 2016, Term I 2017 and Term II 2017, while primary attendance had a drop in attendance from Term III 2016 to Term I 2017 as shown in the graph below. 18 Figure 9: School attendance Retention The drop-out rates remained relatively stable in the county, however, the dropout rate for females in ECD and Primary doubled in each case. In ECD, the female dropout rate jumped from 3% at end of Term III 2016 to 6%, while in primary the rate increased from 2% to 4% over the same period. For males, the rate stayed the same, 5%, for primary, and decreased from 8% to 7% for ECD as shown in table 17. The major reasons for dropping-out included the absence of food in schools, the schools available were far away and households did not find any value in schooling so did not insist on children going to school. In primary schools, the reasons given for dropping out were insecurity/violence, family labour responsibilities together with an absence of food in schools. Finally for secondary schools, students dropped out due to early marriages, pregnancies, lack of school fees and family labour responsibilities. Generally girls dropped out due to pregnancies and early marriages while boys did, due to engagement in boda boda business which ensured quick cash. Table 17: Schools drop-outs Indicator End of Term III 2016 End of Term I 2017 Students dropped out from school \u2116 Boys \u2116 Girls \u2116 Boys \u2116 Girls ECD 1,998 1,387 1,901 1,534 Primary 3,543 2,828 3,448 2,649 Secondary 24 25 0 0 School meals program The number of both boys and girls receiving school feeding was 104,075 through one of three types of school meals programme in the county (Figure 18). The programme has enhanced participation due to lack of food at home. Nevertheless, pupils at times missed meals in cases of insecurity particularly in Baringo North and East Pokot, as well as when there is insufficient water to cook food or there were delays in the food pipeline from the donors. 34,523 children are reported as missing meals in Baringo schools for these reasons. 19 Table 18: School meals programme Name of No. of HGSM RSMP ESMP None Total number sub- schools of beneficiaries county with Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls school feeding Mogotio 67 6,853 6,837 2,652 2,460 3,906 3,644 Baringo Central 31 3,020 2,789 - - 5,315 4,876 East Pokot 113 9,006 7,727 - - 1,292 411 Marigat 49 10,031 9,572 3,446 2,645 2,534 2,354 Baringo North 71 9,167 8,810 7,010 7,021 5,315 4,876 Koibatek 90 - - - - 2,513 2,516 - - Subtotal 29,071 28,008 9,006 7,727 15,621 14,642 18,362 16,161 76,245 81,913 Grand total (boys + girls) 57,079 16,733 30,263 34,523 104,075 Inter-sector links The ministry of health regularly carried out deworming at educational institutions for ECD centres. The national government through the ministry of interior was holding peace-building campaigns in an attempt to curb the insecurity that had been experienced in Baringo North, East Pokot and Marigat sub-counties. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Assumptions \uf0b7 The October to December short rains season will be below-normal. \uf0b7 Maize commodity prices will decline marginally through to September and are also likely to maintain an above-average trend. \uf0b7 Rangeland conditions are likely to improve slightly through to September due to the on- going off-season rains in most parts of the county. However, the improvement is likely to be short-lived as most areas spot depleted rangelands due to poor rejuvenation from the past two seasons. \uf0b7 Livestock prices are likely to increase slightly through to September owing to increased availability of forage rejuvenated from the off-season rains. However, they are likely to maintain a below-average trend due to lower-than-normal body condition. \uf0b7 Conflicts over rangeland resources are likely to continue along the borders of East Pokot with Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties together with the border along the county with Turkana. 4.2 Food security outcomes for July, August and September Rangeland resources are expected to improve slightly through to September owed largely to the on-going off-season rains. However, the improvement is likely to be short-lived as rejuvenation is projected to be lower-than optimal due to below-normal performance of the rains. However, livestock production might realize marginal improvements due to below- normal tropical livestock units attributed to mortalities during the last season. Additionally, most livestock are likely to continue migrating out of the county fuelling conflicts along 20 migratory routes and increasing the county\u2019s livestock disease burden. Livestock prices are expected to remain below-average. As income from livestock production decreases, majority of households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones who rely on livestock are likely to face significant food consumption gaps related to access to market purchases. They are therefore likely to increase the number of consumption-based coping mechanisms and employ them more frequently in a bid to bridge this gap. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, the projected decline in crop production is likely to compromise food consumption as they rely on the activity for food. As the access to food decreases, the nutritional status especially for children is likely to worsen. Subsequently, poor households in the pastoral-all species and agro- pastoral livelihood zones are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones are likely to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) 4.3 Food security outcomes for October, November and December The onset of the short rains season is projected to be in October and will result in some rejuvenation of forage and recharge of water sources. However, the since the season is forecast to perform below-average in cumulative amounts, it is unlikely that these positive impacts will be long-lived since the county will still be recovering from the past two poor seasons. Therefore, although livestock production may improve as some livestock migrate back increasing milk availability and consumption and increasing domestic incomes, these are likely to occur at a small scale. The terms of trade are likely to improve marginally although they may remain below-average as commodity prices will remain at an all-time high due to reduced availability against lower- than-normal livestock prices. Coping mechanisms will likely increase in frequency and severity and food consumption gaps will therefore still be evident for households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones who will continue relying on markets for food purchases. The nutritional status of children will continue to deteriorate. Poor households in the pastoral-all species livelihood zone will therefore remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). For households in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, harvests will have been realized although at lower-than-normal levels. Stocks will be depleted necessitating reliance on markets earlier than normal. With food commodity prices projected to be above-average, poor households in these zones are unlikely to attain minimum dietary requirements and are therefore likely to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.0 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase classification The county is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are classified in Crisis while the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones are classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The main food insecurity drivers this season include poor rainfall performance, the fall army worm infestation, insecurity and high food commodity prices. Most parts of the county received 50-75 percent of the normal rainfall particularly for the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones which as characterized by poor temporal distribution and a late onset. Insecurity due to conflicts over pasture had increased and livestock had migrated earlier-than-normal reducing livestock production. Above-average food commodity prices were reported amid lower-than-normal livestock prices significantly reducing pastoralists\u2019 21 terms of trade. Crop production also performed below-optimal which further increased households\u2019 vulnerability as this is the main season for crop production in the agro-pastoral, mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The lower-than-average performance was occasioned by the fall army worm infestation and the poor performance of the rainy season. There had been a significant reduction in the proportion of households with an acceptable diet compared with a similar time last year pointing to reduced dietary diversity, food intake, food frequency and nutritive value. The reduction in food consumption had manifested in an increase in the frequency and severity of coping strategies being employed. A deterioration in the nutritional status of children aged below five years had also been recorded and could largely be attributed to the reduced food consumption coupled with poor child care practices. Key factors to monitor include the current food insecurity drivers such as the fall army worm infestation, food commodity prices, rangeland conditions, conflicts along migratory routes and the nutritional status of children aged below five years. 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking Table 19: Sub-county ranking Sub-county Food Main food security threat (if any) security rank (1-6) East Pokot 1 Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, low livestock prices, high food commodity prices, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates Baringo 2 Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, livestock diseases, North fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Mogotio 3 Poor performance of rains, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity prices, inconsistent supply of food commodities, high malnutrition rates Marigat 4 Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Baringo 5 Poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high Central malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Eldama 6 Poor rainfall performance, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity Ravine prices 5.2 On-going Interventions 5.2.1 Non-food interventions Table 20: Ongoing interventions Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Impacts Cost Time County/ beneficiari Implementers in terms Fram Ward es of food e security Agriculture Sector Immediate on going interventions All sub- Purchase of All sub- 20,000HH State department of Salvage 54M July - counties chemicals and counties Agriculture and Baringo damaged Sept equipment for County Government crop the control of fall (BCG) -Department of army worm Agriculture 22 Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Impacts Cost Time County/ beneficiari Implementers in terms Fram Ward es of food e security Medium and Long Term on going interventions All sub- Horticulture All sub- 12,000 HH Department of Increased 5 M 2015- counties development counties Agriculture , livestock income 2018 project( and Fisheries- BCG generation provision of , green houses, diversifica drip kits and tion of assorted fruit tree food seedlings wealthy creation through value addition Baringo Provision of Kabarnet, 3500 HH Department of Income 5M 2015- Central, coffee and Kapropita, Agriculture , livestock generation 2018 Baringo macadamia Ewalel and Fisheries- BCG and North, seedlings Chapchap, wealthy Baringo Sacho, creation South, Tenges, through Mogotio Mogotio, value and Koibatek, addition Eldama Mochongo Ravine i Livestock Sector Immediate on going interventions Baringo Disease Koibatek 5,120 cattle MOALF, Reduced 2M Jan- control(vaccinati incidences May BCG ons against of 2017 FMD and livestock Black-quarter diseases leading to improved livestock Baringo 1000 cattle body south condition Baringo Feeds 20,000 MOALF, Increase 50M Mar- distribution Livestock chances of July All BCG livestock 2017 (hay, drought NDMA survival pellets/meal) during Urea Molasses drought Mineral Blocks period Medium and Long Term on going interventions All sub- Supply and All sub- 847 hives BCG To 0.7M Apr- counties distribution of counties promote Jun beehives diversifica 2017 tion 23 Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Impacts Cost Time County/ beneficiari Implementers in terms Fram Ward es of food e security All sub- Supply and All sub- 10,000 to BCG To 2M Apr- counties distribution of counties 50 groups promote Jun chicks diversifica 2017 tion and ensure gender equity All sub- Pasture Mogotio, 1000 RPLRP Promote 20M 2016- counties establishment Baringo livestock 2018 and seed bulking North, feeds plots Baringo availabilit South, y Tiaty Health and Nutrition Sector Immediate interventions All Sub Vitamin A All health 193,000 MOH supported by Improved 3.3M Routi Counties Supplementation facilities, UNICEF, WVK & Afya immunity ne and Zinc selected uzazi, County Supplementation ECD department of health Selected Management of 100 health 4856 County department of Improved 16.6M Routi health Acute facilities health supported by immunity ne facilities Malnutrition National government, all over (IMAM) UNICEF, WVK and the Surge at 6 WFP county health facilities in East Pokot All Sub IYCN All health 11580 County department of Improved 780,000 Routi Counties Interventions facilities health supported by immunity ne (EBF and timely and Afya Uzazi introduction of communit complementary y units foods) All Sub Iron folate All health 10860 County department of Improved 356000 Routi Counties supplementation facilities health supported by immunity ne among pregnant ANC WVK, UNICEF women All Sub Deworming All health 6700 County department of Improved 600,000 Routi Counties facilities health supported by immunity ne ANC WVK, UNICEF & Afya Uzazi East Blanket All health 31200 County department of Improved 21,510,31July- Pokot supplementary facilities health supported by immunity 8 Sept feeding & WFP,WVK outreach sites 24 Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Impacts Cost Time County/ beneficiari Implementers in terms Fram Ward es of food e security All Sub Outreaches and 49 site 45500 County department of Improved 40,000,00On Counties mass screening health services, Afya health 0 going uzazi, KRCS, WVK Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission Mogotio, Mass net Mogotio, 353000 County Government, Decreased 18,000,00On distribution National malaria control morbidity 0 going Eldamara Eldamarav programme. due to vine ine malaria Water Sector Immediate interventions All sub- Water trucking Institution 12 BCG, NG, RCS, WV, Reduced 2M On counties s Institutions UNCEF, NDMA distances going in accessing water. All sub- Borehole Communit 200HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, Increase in 4M On counties rehabilitation y UNCEF, NDMA access to going safe water All sub- Capacity County 2 Sub RCS, WV, UNCEF Increased 0.5M On counties building on counties knowledge going water on safe management water. Medium and Long Term on going interventions All sub- Construction of All sub- 1840 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, Reduced 60M 2017- counties new water counties UNCEF, NDMA distances 2018 projects in accessing water. All sub- Rehabilitation, All sub- 5120 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, Increase in 24 M 2017- counties drilling and counties UNCEF, NDMA access to 2018 equipping of safe water boreholes All sub- Capacity All sub- 2130 HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, Increased 4.5M 2017- counties building on counties UNCEF, NDMA knowledge 2018 water on safe management water. Education Sector 25 Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Impacts Cost Time County/ beneficiari Implementers in terms Fram Ward es of food e security Immediate interventions B. North Provision of food Sibilo Pri, 198 GOK,CG Parents, Increase 2014- items WVK, NGOs, KRS enrolment, 2018 Kapluk Pri, (HGSMP,CSMP, high EHGMP) Kipcherere Pri, transition rate and Bartabwa Pri, retention Akoreyan Pri, Atiar Pri B. Planting of Salawa Pri, 1800 GOK, CG, partners To earn 2014- Central mangoes, income to 2018 Kaptara Pri, groundnuts, purchase pawpaw Chesongo Pri, food in times of green grams, Kapkelelwa scarcity cowpeas for Pri, income in schools Ochii Pri Marigat HGSMP, Mukutani Pri, 8000 GOK,MOE,WFP,KRS, Increase 2014- WVK,UNICEF access to 2018 Arabal Pri, education, Kapndasum improve Pri, health status and Ngelecha Pri, IGA Noosuguro pri, Kiserian Pri, Kailer Pri, Sandai Pri, Loboi Pri, Kapkuikui Pri, Ngambo Pri, Barsemoi Pri, Salabani Pri, Perkerra Pri, Loitip Pri, Eldume Pri, Endao Pri 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Table 21: Recommended interventions Sub-county Food Main food security threat (if any) security rank (1-6 East Pokot 1 Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, low livestock prices, 26 high food commodity prices, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates Baringo 2 Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, market disruptions, livestock diseases, North fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Mogotio 3 Poor performance of rains, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity prices, inconsistent supply of food commodities, high malnutrition rates Marigat 4 Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Baringo 5 Poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high Central malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Eldama 6 Poor rainfall performance, fall army worm infestation, high food commodity Ravine prices 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Table 22: Recommended non-food interventions Sub- Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time county/ beneficiaries Implementers Resources ResourceFrame Ward s Agriculture Sector Immediate recommended Interventions All sub- Capacity All sub- 100,000 Department of 100 Staff immediat counties building of counties households Agriculture Million e staff on fall and army worm stakeholders control and provision of chemicals Medium and Long Term recommended interventions Livestock Sector All sub- Distribution of All sub- 41,500 HH MOALF 54.088 M 2.7M Aug counties hay and food counties 2017- BCG supplements to Dec,2017 the affected NDMA(EU) livestock Partners All sub- Disease All sub- Countywide BCG, National 10M 2M Aug, counties control(vaccina counties government 2017- tions against and Dec, 2017 FMD,CCPP, Development partners and Black quarter All sub- Emergency All sub- 1,500HH BCG(MOALF) 24M - Aug, counties Livestock off- counties ,Nat. Govt. 2017- take, Dec, 2017 (commercial 27 Sub- Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time county/ beneficiaries Implementers Resources ResourceFrame Ward s and slaughter) Health and Nutrition Sector Immediate recommended interventions All Mass screening Hard-to-reach 80 sites County 14,000,00 2,000,000 June Oct areas department of 0 2017 health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, WVK Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission East Integrated Hard-to-reach 40 sites County 16,000,00 3,000,000 June Oct Pokot, medical areas department of 0 2017 Baringo outreaches health services, North, Afya uzazi, Marigat KRCS, & Mogotio WVK Beyond zero clinics Catholic mission All sub- Purchase and Household 1200 h/H County 6,000,000 1,000,000 June Oct counties distribute water getting water department of 2017 treatment drugs from dams health services, Afya uzazi, KRCS, WVK Medium and Long term Recommended Interventions Selected Implement All sub- 30 health County 50,000,00 29,000,002017/101 health IMAM surge counties facilities department of 0 0 8 facilities health services, (30) all , WVK over the county Selected Implement All sub- 30 health County 7,000,000 1,500,000 2017/101 CUs BFCI counties facilities department of 8 health services, BBC media action, WVK, Afya uzazi 28 Sub- Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time county/ beneficiaries Implementers Resources ResourceFrame Ward s All sub- Purchase and Hard to reach 25 Health County 5250,000 500,000 2017/101 counties distribute areas facilities department of 8 fridge to new health health facilities services,, for preservation WVK, afya of vaccines Uzazi Water Sector Immediate interventions All sub- Provision of Community 2500HH BCG, NG, 2.5M - 1- 5 counties fuel/electricity WS RCS, WV, months subsidy UNCEF, NDMA All sub- Rehabilitation / Community 2150HH BCG, NG, 30M - 1- 5 counties Servicing of WS RCS, WV, months pumping units UNCEF, and stock NDMA piling of fast- moving spares 20 community water supplies All sub- Roof -water Institutions / 30 Inst. BCG, NG, 8M - 1- 5 counties harvesting Communities RCS, WV, months structures UNCEF, NDMA Medium and Long term Recommended Interventions All sub- Drilling and Across all 2300HH BCG, NG, 90M 15M 1 - 5 yrs counties Equipping of livelihoods RCS, WV, 12 strategic UNCEF, BHs along NDMA migratory routes and settlement areas All sub- Construction Across all 3800HH BCG, NG, 80 M 20M 1 \u2013 5 yrs counties and livelihoods RCS, WV, Rehabilitation UNCEF, of 10 potential NDMA water supplies All sub- Construction of Across all 6500HH BCG, NG, 1100M 30M 1 -5Yrs counties 4 dams,18 livelihoods RCS, WV, water pans and UNCEF, 18 farm ponds NDMA for domestic and irrigation water use Education Sector Immediate interventions 29 Sub- Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time county/ beneficiaries Implementers Resources ResourceFrame Ward s Baringo HSGMP,EHS Baringo North 3400 GOK,BCG,WF 100M Jul-Dec North MP P,KRS.WVK,F 2017 PO Mogotio HGSMP Mogotio 3000 GOK,BCG,WF 50M Jul-Dec P,KRS.WVK,F 2017 PO East Purchase of East Pokot 4000 GOK,BCG,WF 3M Jul-Dec pokot beehives,camel P,KRS.WVK,F 2017 ,goats PO,UNICEF Marigat Construction of Eldume,Sanda 2000IDPs due GOK,BCG,WF 10M Jul-Dec temporary i,Kimorok,Ka to insecurity P,KRS.WVK,F 2017 boarding pndasum,Ara PO,UNICEF,F facilities to bal AO house IDPs B. Construction of Kaptara 1250 GOK,BCG,FB 20M Jul-Dec Central a dam in school pri,Chesongo, Os 2017 Salawa,Kapke lelwa,Mogor wo 30 - Page 26\n\nA joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and the Baringo County Steering Group July 2017 1 Evelyn Wangari Nganga (National Drought Management Authority) and Peter Mndanyi (World Vision) Executive Summary The county is classified in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are classified in Crisis while the mixed farming and irrigated cropping ones are in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2). There was a reduction in the food frequency, nutritive value and dietary diversity as evidenced by the reduction in the proportion of households with an acceptable diet from 90.7 percent in May 2016 to 59.8 percent in May 2017 Food Security Outcome Monitoring. The reduced food consumption gaps was also manifested in the increase in the frequency and severity of consumption-based coping strategies as evidenced by the increase in the coping strategy index from 12.9 in May 2016 to 18.6 in May 2017. The nutritional status had deteriorated as the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition increased from 18 percent in January 2017 to 25 percent in June 2017. Food availability at household level was below normal across all livelihood zones. Only the households in the mixed farming livelihood zone had stocks available with the rest currently relying on markets for food. Livestock production was also below average as livestock stayed away from homesteads in search of pasture reducing milk availability. Additionally, even the remaining livestock could not fetch competitive prices due to weakened body condition. Access to food was a challenge for most households in the county as prices of maize, a staple in the county maintained an above-average trend attributed to acute unavailability of the commodity due to low supply. Reduced income from livestock production had limited access to food for 88 and 50 percent of the households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zone who rely on it as a main source of income. The countys food insecurity was largely owed to the poor performance of the long rains season, high food commodity prices, the fall army worm infestation and insecurity within the county and along borders with neighbouring counties of Turkana and Elgeyo Marakwet Counties and along migratory routes. With most of the county having received 50-75 percent of normal rainfall punctuated with a late onset and poor temporal distribution, crop and livestock production were significantly affected negatively. The crop production was further affected by the fall army worm out-break that will significantly reduce the projected yields. Insecurity along the borders with neighbouring counties prevented access to pasture in these areas.",
            "Baringo_County_LRA_2018.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2018 LONG RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT County Steering Group August, 2018 1 Fredrick Owino (State Department for Development of ASALs); Charles Chebarwett (World Vision Kenya). 1.1. County Background..................................................................................................... 4 1.2. Objectives .................................................................................................................... 4 2.1. Rainfall Performance................................................................................................... 5 2.2. InsecurityConflict ....................................................................................................... 6 2.3. Other Shocks and Hazards .......................................................................................... 6 3.1. Availability .................................................................................................................. 6 3.2. Access........................................................................................................................ 11 3.3. Utilization .................................................................................................................. 15 3.4. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ................................................................... 17 4.1. Education ................................................................................................................... 18 5.1. Assumptions .............................................................................................................. 19 5.2. Food Security Outlook for September to November, 2018 ...................................... 19 5.3. Food Security Outlook for December to February, 2019.......................................... 19 6.1. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 20 6.2. Ongoing Interventions ............................................................................................... 21 6.3. Recommended Interventions ..................................................................................... 23 Food security assessment is a bi-annual assessment conducted by a multi-agency and multi sector representatives from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG); the County actors. The 2018 long rains food security assessment which covered all the 23 Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) counties of Kenya was conducted from 6th to 17th August, 2018. In Baringo county, the assessment covered the four main livelihood zones namely Mixed farming, Pastoral, agro pastoral and irrigated cropping. The overall objective was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of long rains season of 2018, taking into account the cumulative effects of situation analysis. The onset of the long rains was early in the first dekad of March. The cumulative amounts received during the season amounted to 931mm which were above 350 percent of normal long rains. Spatial distribution was even and good temporal distribution characterized by continuous rains throughout the season. The rains ceased late in the third dekad of June compared to normal in the third dekad of May. There was a general increase in acreage planted for crops both for the rain-fed agriculture and also irrigated agriculture due to massive campaigns by the county government to enhance food security and also the shamba system which saw more forest land opened up for cultivation. Projected production is also expected to be above the long term average. The current household maize stocks stands at 150 percent of the long term average with most of it held by farmers in Eldama Ravine due to carry over from the previous season. Livestock body condition is good for all livestock species across the county due adequate forage and water. Return trekking distances have reduced and range between three to four kilometres in the agro-pastoral zones and up to six kilometres in the pastoral livelihood zones. Milk production and consumption at household level have slightly improved especially in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones where four to six litres are produced per household. Markets operations are normal in most markets except for Barwessa ward where markets are closed due to quarantine. Livestock prices are above the long term average due to good body condition while food commodity prices have fallen below the long term average especially cereals. Terms of trade are currently favourable as 71 kilograms of maize can be purchased from the sale of an average-sized goat compared to 31 kilograms same period last year. There was improvement in the food consumption score with 91 percent of households having acceptable food consumption score, eight percent having borderline and one percent having poor food consumption score. In the agro-pastoral livelihood zones, the proportion of households within the borderline food consumption group is 23 percent and 32 percent in pastoral livelihood zone. The mean reduced coping strategy index is 14. Only 1.5 percent of the population are not employing any coping strategy. 24 percent of the households reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat; 20 percent reduced the portion size of meals; 18 percent reduced number of meals per day; 17 percent borrowed food or relied from friends or relatives; and similar proportion relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. Nutritional status also showed an improvement with GAM prevalence rate for the county based on the weighted average standing at seven percent with Tiaty Sub County recording GAM prevalence rate of 17 percent. The proportion of children below five years who are at risk of malnutrition stands at 13 percent. The county is thus classified as Minimal or None (IPC Phase 1) across all livelihood zones except pastoral livelihood zone which is stressed (IPC Phase 2). 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The County covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometres (Km) with an estimated population of 703,697 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Projected Population). Administratively, the county is divided into six (6) sub Figure 1: Proportion of the Population by Livelihood Zones Counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Eldama Ravine, and Baringo South. The County has four main livelihoods namely, Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and four percents respectively as shown in Figure 1. Main sources of income in the county include: Livestock production contributing 88 percent of cash income in the pastoral; 50 percent in the agro- pastoral; and 23 percent in the mixed farming livelihood zones. Others sources of income include: Cash crop production; food crop production and casual waged labour with varied contributions across livelihood zones (Table 9). 1.2. Objectives The overall objective of the Long Rains Food Security Assessment (LRA) was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of long rains season of 2018, taking into account the cumulative effect of situation analysis. Specifically the assessment was aimed: To ascertain at the livelihood level the quality and quantity of the 2018 March to May long rains and assess their impact on all key sectors including crop; livestock; water and sanitation; health and nutrition; and education. To establish the impacts of other compounding factors on household food security, such as livestock diseases, livestock mortality, crop failures and market food prices. To establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programmes that promote preparedness and build household resilience. To assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities including food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 2 2 3 1 4 3 ix e d F a r m in a s t o r a l g r o P a s t o r a l r ig a t e d C r o p p in g Methodology and Approach The 2018 LRA assessment which was a multi-agency and multi sectoral approach consisted of representatives from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG); the County actors. The process involved an in-depth data collection and analysis of primary data including Key Informant Interviews (KII), Focussed Group Discussions (FGDs), community interviews, market surveys, and checklists administration. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary information was also analysed from the SMART surveys, National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) monthly bulletins, and Food Security Outcome Monitoring (FSOM) data. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports generated. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tool. The assessment was conducted from 6th to 17th August, 2018 covering all the 23 Arid and Semi-arid (ASAL) counties of Kenya. The process began with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission with the aim of triangulating the information in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership as the true reflection of the county food security status. 2. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance Baringo County experiences a bimodal rainfall pattern with the long rains season occurring in March to May and short rains season from October to December. The County receives an average annual rainfall ranging from 500 millimetres (mm) in the lowlands and up to 1,500 mm in the highlands around Kabartonjo, Kabarnet, Sacho and Barwessa divisions. The county is long rains dependent for crop production across all the livelihood zones. The onset of long rains was early in the first dekad of March compared to the normal onset in the second dekad of March. The cumulative amount of rains received during the season amounted to 931mm which was over 350 percent of normal long rains as shown in figure 2. Spatial distribution was even across the county with good temporal distribution Figure 2: Rainfall distribution as a percent of normal characterized by continuous rains throughout the season. The rains ceased late in the third dekad of June compared to normal in the third dekad of May. 2.2. InsecurityConflict Currently there are no major resource based conflicts in the county. Peace initiatives are currently being undertaken by different stakeholder to enhance peaceful coexistence among the households living in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. 2.3. Other Shocks and Hazards In Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones of Baringo South outbreak of Rift Valley fever and Blue tongue diseases were reported. These diseases threaten the livelihoods of farmers who rely upon the animals for food and income supply. The diseases are likely to spread to other area if not contained on time. Fall Army Worm (FAW) out-breaks were reported in all livelihood zones across the county at the beginning of the season. Despite the FAW outbreak, maize production was not affected because of the substantial rains that suppressed the larva enabling maturity of the maize plant. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Baringo County depends mainly on the long rains for crop production across all the livelihood zones except in irrigated cropping livelihood zone which depends on irrigation. Maize is mostly grown for food in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones contributing 63 and 21 percents to food in the respective zones. While in the same zones, Food crop production contributes four percent to cash income in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and five percent in the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones. However, in the irrigated zones, maize is grown for commercial purposes contributing 26 percent to cash income. Due to its varied ecological zoning, the County has diversified crops. The main food crops grown in the County include Maize, Beans, millets, Irish Potatoes, cow peas and Sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops and even cash crops like coffee, cotton and pyrethrum. Rain-fed crop production The three main crops grown under rain-fed agriculture during the long rains were maize, beans and finger millet. Generally the acreage cultivated in 2018 was higher than the long term average due to massive campaigns by the county government to increase food security through provision of inputs; improved rainfall and also the shamba system a programme which saw opening up of new forest land in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo central. The acreage for maize and finger millet increased by 13 and 5 percent respectively of their long-term averages while that of beans reduced by 4 percent as shown in Table 1 below. Farmers delayed planting because most of the farms were inaccessible with machinery in the low lying areas of Kerio valley and Churo Amaya wards due to the heavy long rains The rains positively affected the growth of the crops except in the low lying areas of the county in which 348 hectares of land was affected by floods. Table 1: Crop Production under Rain-fed Agriculture during 2018 Average area season production production during the Long rains planted during the (90 kg bags) Long rains season (90 season (Ha) Long rains season ProjectedActual kg bags) Maize 45,122 40,046 1,133,940 800,650 Beans 21,196 22,028 200,709 253,223 Finger millet 5,744 5,466 43,904 39,325 Despite the attack of Maize crop by Fall Army Worm (FAW), production is expected to be above the LTA, since farmers controlled the worm and also the continuous rains reduced the effect of the pest. Around 14,130 hectare was affected by the worm affecting about 31 percent of the crop. Maize harvest is projected to be 42 percent above the long term average while that of finger millet is projected to be 12 percent above the long term average production. The Bean crop was also affected by the heavy rains and their production was expected to be below the long term average by 21 percent as most beans were destroyed by excess rains. The average maize production across the County is expected to be 25 bags per hectare. Mixed farming areas and irrigated livelihood zone is projected to have the highest production as compared to the Agro pastoral zones. Irrigated crop production The main crops under irrigated agriculture were maize grown commercially for seed, beans, cowpeas, watermelon and tomatoes. There was an increase in area under seed maize by 42 percent compared to the LTA due to availability of water thus more farmers were contracted by the seed companies. By comparison there was a decline in the area put under tomatoes and beans by 28 and 10 percent respectively. The decline in these acreages was attributed to the flooding which destroyed arable lands. Production is expected to decline for beans and tomatoes by 18 and 13 percents of the long term averages as most of the crops were affected by fungal diseases due to the continuous wet conditions which also affected watermelons. However, production for commercial maize, cowpeas and seed maize is expected to record above long term average as shown in table 2 below. Notably, irrigation of high value crops is managed by men for commercial purposes while the women and children provide the labour on the farms Table 2: Crop Production under Irrigated Agriculture during the 2018 Average (3 years) season production (3 years) production Long rains season area planted during (90 kg bagsMT) during 2018 Long rains (ha) Long rains season Projectedactual season (ha) (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 50 65 1,392 1,106 Beans 27 30 88 107 Cowpeas 80 80 320 156 Tomatoes 76 106 560 642 Seed Maize 2,166 1,524 84,264 57,150 3.1.2. Cereals Stock The county recorded high volumes of cereal stocks which were above the long term averages maize, rice, sorghum, green grams and millet. Maize stock for instance was 87 percent above the long term average of 197,397 bags in the county. Farmers held 150 percent of their long term averages maize stocks as shown in table 3 below. The above LTA stocks held by farmers were as a result of early harvesting in parts of agro-pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones where planting was early. Furthermore, there were carry-over stocks from the previous season in the mixed farming zones of Eldama Ravine as farmers did not clear their 2017 stocks in anticipation of better prices from NCPB. The stocks held by farmers for Sorghum, Green grams and millet increased by 60, 151 and 10 percents respectively. The above LTA stock of green grams held by farmers were due to increased acreage planted under irrigated livelihood zone during the short rains season of 2017. The current maize stocks held by household is expected to last for 4-5 months in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones and only 1-2 months in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Traders hold 346 percent of the LTA due to slow movement since farmers have started harvesting and have stocks and are also utilizing green maize coupled with low market prices. Posho millers currently hold 93 percent above their LTA maize stock. Table 3: Commodity Stocks in the County Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Green gram Millet Curren LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Curre LTA Farmers 249,78 167,05 0 2 709 443 176 70 1,511 1,372 Traders 78,900 22,818 2,501 2,577 317 273 317 324 460 489 Millers 14,552 7,523 0 0 0 10 0 14 0 14 NCPB 25,932 507 Total 369,16 197,39 3,008 2,579 1,026 726 493 408 1,971 1,875 3.1.3. Livestock Production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. There is also an effort by the county government to promote rabbit farming. Livestock production contributes 88 percent to cash income in the pastoral livelihood zones, 50 percent in the agro-pastoral, 23 percent in mixed farming and eight percent in the irrigated livelihood zone. Pasture and Browse Condition The forage condition is good across all livelihood zones as shown in table 4 below. The long rains in Baringo County are very important for pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by-products like maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and legume by-products are conserved for livestock feed. These by-products are important as they are utilized during dry period and hence supplementing strategic feed reserves in the county. Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Livelihood Pasture Browse zone condition Projected Factors condition Projected Factors Duration to last Limiting Duration to last Limiting (Months) access (Months) access Curren Normal Curre Norma Curren Norma Curren Norma t nt l t l t l Mixed farming Good Good 4 3 none Good Good 4-5 4-5 None to fair Irrigated Good Good 4 3 Up surging Good Good 4-5 4-5 None cropping to fair lake water Agro-pastoral Good Good 3 2 none Good Good 3-4 3 None Pastoral Good Good 3 2 None Good Good 3-4 3 None Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition is good for all livestock species in the county which is an improvement from the previous season. The improvement in body condition is attributed to availability of forage and water due to good performance of rainfall. Body condition is expected to remain good throughout the season. As a result of the improved body condition it is expected that there will be increase in livestock prices, household income and milk production. Subsequently, the nutritional status of children under the age of five will improve. Table 5 below summarizes and compares to normal the body condition of various livestock species in the county. Table 5: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Good Good Good Good Good Good NA NA farming Irrigated Good Good Good Good Good Good NA NA cropping Agro- Good Fair to Good Fair to Good Fair to Good Good pastoral good good good Pastoral Good Fair to Good Fair to Good Fair to Good Good good good good Water Availability and Access The main sources of water include: Shallow wells, boreholes, permanent rivers, water pans, streams, springs and piped water. Most open water sources were adequately recharged at 90- 100 percent of their capacities. The trekking distances have reduced compared to same period the previous year due to adequate recharge levels at the sources. Currently, the distances are up to one kilometre in the mixed farming livelihood zones, 3-4 kilometres in the irrigated cropping and ago-pastoral livelihood zones while in the pastoral areas, the distances range between 4-6 kilometres. The watering frequency has improved due to availability of water and all livestock species are watered daily as shown in table 6 below. Table 6: Water Availability and Access Liveli Sources Expected Return trekking Watering hood Duration to last distance(Km) frequency zone (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Streams, Streams, Until Until 0.5-1 1-1.5 Daily Daily farming Rivers, Rivers, the the springs, springs, onset of onset of piped piped the the water, water, short short boreholes, boreholes, rains rains Irrigated Rivers, Rivers, Until Until 3-4 3-4 Daily Daily cropping shallow shallow the the wells and wells and onset of onset of springs. springs. the the short short rains rains Agro- water pans, Streams, 2-3 3 3-4 3-4 Daily Daily pastoral Boreholes, water rivers pans, Boreholes Pastoral Bore-holes, Water- 2-3 2 4-6 4-7 Daily Daily water pans, pans, seasonal Bore-holes rivers Birth Rates, Milk Production, Consumption and Pricing Current birth rates are normal and within the seasonal range of two to four percent but higher than the rates recorded in the previous seasons due to good body condition. Similarly, there was a slight increase in milk production and consumption at household levels due to availability of forage and water across all the livelihood zones as shown in table 7 below. Milk prices currently range between Ksh. 50-60 per litre in the county which is normal at this time of the year. Table 7: Milk Production, Consumption and Pricing Livelihood zone Milk Production per HH Milk consumption per Prices (Ksh)Litre (ltrs) HH (ltrs) Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed farming 4-6 5 2 2 50 50 Irrigated cropping 2-3 1.8 2 2 50 50 Agro-pastoral 2-3 1.8 1.5 1.8 60 60 Pastoral 1-2 1.8 1.5 1.8 60 60 Average Number of Livestock (Tropical Livestock Units -TLUs) Table 8: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming 2 2.8 3.5 4 Irrigated cropping 2 3.2 4.2 5 Agro-pastoral 2.8 3.2 5 5 Pastoral 3 3.6 5.5 6.5 The average tropical livestock unit is 2.5 for the poor income household and 4.7 for the medium income households. There were variations reported across various livelihood zones with pastoral livelihood zone having higher TLUs compared to other livelihood zones for both the two income groups as shown in table 8 above. Comparatively, there was slight increase in TLUs over the previous season due to the restocking of small stocks in the month of May and June by the Regional Pastoral Livelihood Resilience Programme (RPLRP). Livestock Migration, Diseases and Mortalities There was no livestock migration reported into and out of the county. However, livestock diseases reported in the county include: Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), Sheep and Goat Pox, PPR, Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Rabies, Blue tongue, Enterotoxaemia, Black quarter, and New Castle Disease (NCD). There was also confirmed outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Logumgum area and Lumpy Skin Disease in Barwessa ward leading to imposition of quarantine in Barwessa by the time of the assessment. There were no mortalities due to drought save for few diseases related mortalities. The mortality rates for all livestock species were at normal ranges at two percent. Measures taken were disease surveillance in all the counties and vaccination in targeted sub- counties. 3.2. Access 3.2.1. Markets Operations The main food commodity markets in the county include: Kabarnet, Tenges, Mogotio, Emining, Marigat, Barwessa, Eldama Ravine, Kollowa, Churo and Nginyang. The main livestock markets include Barwessa, Kinyach, Kollowa, Nginyang, Tangulbei, Amaya, Marigat and Emining. Market operations were normal for most markets across the county. However, in Barwessa ward, markets have been closed due to imposition of quarantine as a result of outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD). An outbreak of Rift Valley Fever has also been confirmed in Logumgum area which is likely to result in closure of markets. The main livestock sold in the markets included cattle, goats and sheep while food commodities included maize, posho, cassava, bananas, rice, beans, kales, cabbages and potatoes. Market Supplies and Traded Volumes The main food commodity supplies come from within the county and also across the county borders from: Elgeyo Marakwet, Nakuru and Uasin Gishu counties. There were high volumes of food commodity traded in the county as traders held above their long term average stocks especially cereals. However, demand was currently low especially for food commodities as only 35 percent of the households were sourcing food from the local markets. Supply for livestock was low as most farmers were reluctant to sell their livestock because of the good body condition. Figure 3: Average Maize Price per kilo in the County .hsK( Ju n Ju l Figure 4: Average Goat Prices in the County ).hsK( 3.2.2. Market Prices Maize Price The current price of a kilogram of maize for July was Ksh. 42 compared to Ksh. 58 same period in the previous year which was lower by 27.6 percent. Compared to the long term average, the price was 10.6 percent lower. Highest prices were recorded in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.65 per kilogram while irrigated livelihood zones recorded the lowest price of Ksh. 35 per kilogram. The low prices recorded in the irrigated livelihood zone were mainly attributed to the timely maturing of on-farm crops which enabled households to access green maize. The trend of maize price has shown a general decline from the month of February which is a sharp contrast to that of the previous year when the season performed dismally as shown in figure 3. Maize is mostly grown for food in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones hence the decrease in maize prices increases there capability to buy maize and also makes Terms of Trade (ToT) favorable. The farmers in irrigated livelihood zones depend on maize as an income source, Low prices in prices diminish their ability to have cash income from maize. Goat Prices Currently as at July, an Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 average sized goat was valued at Ksh. 2,972 compared to the long term average price of Ksh. 2,107 and Ksh. 1,773 same period in the previous year as shown in figure 4. The current price is 41 and 67.6 percent above the LTA and same period last year respectively. Highest prices were recorded in the pastoral livelihood zones of Tiaty at Ksh. 3,000 while the lowest prices were recorded in the agro-pastoral livelihood zones at an average of Ksh. 2,800 The price trend from the month of March to July has been consistently above LTA and similar period the previous year which is majorly attributed to the good body condition of the goats. Figure 5: Comparative Terms of Trade in the County eziam smargoliK degnahcxe J a n 0 1 7 J u n Ju l 3.2.3. Terms of Trade Terms of trade have improved and are favorable currently as the sale of an average sized goat would purchase 71 kilograms of maize translating to 61 percent above the LTA (Table 5). Comparing the current terms of trade with the same period last year, there has been a significant improvement from 31 kilograms in 2017 to 71 kilograms in 2018 which is attributed the fall of maize prices coupled with an increase in goat prices. The trend shows a general improvement in the terms of trade since the month of February. 3.2.4. Income Sources Livestock production is the main source of cash income in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones contributing 88 and 50 percents of cash income in the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones respectively. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones, cash crop production contributes the highest income proportion at 30 and 59 percents respectively. Other sources of income include: Food crop production, fishing, casual waged labour and small businesses with varied contributions to cash income as shown as shown in table 9 below. Table 9: Main Sources of Cash Income Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral-all Agro-pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated species Cropping Livestock 88 50 23 5 Food Crop - 4 5 5 Cash Crop - 3 30 59 Fishing - 10 - 4 Casual Waged 1 15 20 10 Labour Small Business 1 4 7 5 3.2.5. Water Access and Availability (Including Cost and Consumption) Major Water Sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Roof-water harvesting structures are commonly used across all livelihoods in institutions. Most of the water sources were adequately recharged between 90100 percent of their capacities across all livelihoods zones due to heavy rains. Currently surface water facilities hold approximately 6575 percent of their normal capacities. Intakes in Sandai, Kamuskoi, Endao, Salabani were destroyed and or silted due the performance of rains. Flatswampy areas previous cultivated during times of inadequate rains were not productive during the season because of water clogging and flooding. In isolated cases, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs and poor management of the resource. However, the status of water levels in dams, boreholes, shallow wells, springs, rivers and water pans is stable across all livelihood zones. The available water is expected to last between 3-4 months except in the pastoral and agro-pastoral areas experiencing high temperatures leading to high evaporation where water is expected to last between 2-3 moths Distance to Water Sources The current return trekking distances to water sources have reduced compared to the normal. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones the distances have reduced by approximately 50 percent, which has largely been attributed to the good performance of the rains. The average distances to domestic water sources were normal at 3-5 kilometres in pastoral agro pastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal of 4-5 kilometres. The distances were normal at less than two kilometres in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. Cost of Water, Consumption and Waiting time at the Source The cost of water at the source was generally normal across all livelihood zones and has remained stable compared to the same period last year. Water from open water source (rivers, dams and water pans) are not retailed. A 20 litre jerry can retailed at Ksh 3-5 across all livelihood zones whereas vendors sold the 20 litre jerry can at between Ksh. 15-20. Water consumption per person per day is normal at 2530 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones and 20-25 litres per person per day in agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The waiting time at the source ranged between 2-4 minutes in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in the mixed farming and irrigated zones the waiting time was less than two minutes as shown in table 10 below. Table 10: Distances to Water Sources, Cost and Consumption Livelihood Distance to water for Cost of water Waiting time at Average HH use Projected zone domestic use (Kms) (KES) water source (litrespersonday) duration of (minutes) water in (months) Current Normal Current Norm Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral 34.5 4-5 3 5 3 5 2 - 4 3 - 5 20-25 15- 20 2-3 Agro- 33.5 3-4 3 5 3 5 2 - 4 3 - 5 20-25 15- 20 2-3 pastoral Mixed 0.51.5 0.5-2.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 2 - 4 25-30 20- 25 4-5 Farming Irrigated 0.5-1.5 0.5-1.5 3 5 3 5 1-2 1 - 3 25-30 20- 25 4-5 Cropping 3.2.6. Food Consumption Table 11: Food Consumption Scores by Groups LRA 2017 LRA 2018 FCS Female Male Mean Female Male Mean Poor 14 3.6 0.0 1.1 Borderline 26.2 9.5 7.3 8.0 Acceptable 59.8 86.9 92.7 90.8 The mean food consumption score in the western agro-pastoral cluster is 65 with 91 percent of the population having acceptable, eight percent having borderline and one percent having poor food consumption scores as shown in Table 11 above. There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in 2018 compared to the same season last year as shown in the table above. According to the drought early warning bulletin for the month of June, there was no significant change in food consumption gaps across livelihoods. The proportion of households within the borderline food consumption score was 23.3 percent and 31.7 percent in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone respectively. Currently more households across the livelihoods are consuming at least a staple and vegetable on a daily basis complemented by a frequent consumption of oil and pulses due to relative market stability, milk availability and availability of traditional green vegetables. 3.2.7. Coping Strategy The mean reduced coping strategy index for the western agro-pastoral cluster was 14 compared to 19 the same period last year. This implies that the frequency with which households are employing coping strategies has decreased. In July households in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18 followed by Pastoral at 14. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 3. Female exhibited more coping strategies at 18 while male having a mean coping strategy of 13. Within the cluster, only two percent of the population was reported as not coping. 24 percent of the households reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat; 21 percent reduced the portion size of meals; 18percent reduced number of meals per day; 17 percent borrowed food or relied from friends or relatives; and 17 percent relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. 3.3. Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Acute Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI), malaria and diarrhoea were reported to be the most prevalent diseases for under-fives and the general population in the county (Table 12 and 13). There was an increase of 24 percent in upper respiratory infections in 2018 from 4,857 cases same period last year. This was mainly attributed to prolonged rains which brought about cold temperatures resulting in high rates of pneumonia and flu. Table 12: Morbidity Trends for the Under-Fives Upper 2018 13251 12243 10598 8297 13302 13899 Respiratory 2017 10608 10627 12008 9601 1185 4857 4770 4175 4777 9436 9642 7384 Tract 2016 13295 14128 12011 8447 12329 14197 3130 29522 25682 13289 9854 5902 Diarrhoea 2018 2470 2119 2342 1970 4872 2671 2017 3118 2271 2482 2527 3246 1411 1127 1339 1340 2078 1781 1773 2016 3265 2826 3000 2663 2711 2799 4244 2282 2808 2555 2044 1629 Malaria 2018 3035 3051 1731 1580 2739 3155 2017 2689 1937 2112 1674 2192 4857 1594 1332 1790 3346 2664 2635 2016 3903 3610 3281 2485 4058 3440 5983 3778 2828 2705 2100 1522 Table 13: Morbidity Trends for the General Population Upper 2018 26862 23712 19432 11153 24258 26837 Respiratory 2017 1892 18602 19612 12044 23915 6953 6811 6201 7470 11759 16115 12228 Tract 2016 18579 21151 19116 11616 17107 21741 3130 29522 25682 13289 9854 515 Diarrhoea 2018 2681 2163 2090 1591 3163 2288 2017 2206 2207 2826 1970 3332 929 898 702 905 1312 1547 1721 2016 2166 2887 2957 2366 3120 2834 5860 4110 5146 3388 3841 1282 Malaria 2018 9288 7550 4922 3419 5663 6801 2017 4688 4582 6130 3279 5144 2960 2484 2614 3363 6828 6149 6814 2016 7381 7594 6448 5096 5920 5834 8497 7866 8793 5700 4184 4055 3.3.2. Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation The proportion of children under one year who are fully immunized (FIC) in the county from January to June 2018 is 71 percent compared to 60 percent same time last year. The increase in coverage for fully immunized child was attributed to increase in intergraded outreaches and improvement in the cold-chain in the county. Also, implementation of outreaches and result based financing program contributed to the wider immunization coverage in the county. Analysis of data from the DHIS indicates that Vitamin A supplementation coverage was 71.7 percent for children aged 6-59 months for the period January to June 2018 compared to 59.8 percent same period in 2017. The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 6-59 months was attributed to Malezi Bora activities conducted at ECD and community health units. The coverage in Baringo Central, Baringo South, Baringo North, Mogotio and Koibatek were 105, 41, 64, 73, and 43 percent respectively. East Pokot reported the lowest coverage of 36 percent. 3.3.3. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity The Global Acute Malnutrition prevalence for the county based on the weighted average was 6.9 percent. According to Average (2013-2017) 2017 2018 SMART survey conducted in June 2018, Tiaty Sub County recorded GAM m prevalence rate of 16.8 percent compared to 25.2 1 20 percent recorded same C period last year, an U indication of improvement in nutritional status. According to sentinel data from 5 NDMA, the proportion of children below five years who are at risk of malnutrition decreased from Figure 6: Proportion of children with MUAC less than 135mm 14.9 percent in June to 12.9 percent in July 2018 which is below 13.5 percent recorded in July, 2017 as shown in figure 6 above. Dietary diversity for children is between four to five food groups across all livelihood zones mainly starch, vegetables, dairy and dairy products and meat. In the mixed farming livelihood zones, the meal frequency for children under five years is five while adults have three meals a day. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones children less than five years have a frequency of two to three meals while for adults is two meals a day. 3.3.4. Sanitation and Hygiene Latrine coverage in the county is a major challenge for pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral zone at less than 10 percent and highest in mixed farming at 55 percent. Low latrine coverage is associated with cultural values. Most households in the pastoral zone relieve themselves in the bushes, posing a health risk especially during rainy season. Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock wade directly into open water sources. Most water sources dont have a separate water collection point for livestock and human. About 30 40 percent of households in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhoea and malaria. There was a low water treatment practice in the county where drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. Only about 10-30 percent of households reported to have treated water in the mixed farming livelihood zones either by boiling or use of chemicals. 3.4. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 14: Food Security Trends in Baringo County Indicator Short rains assessment, February Long rains assessment, July 2018 2018 of maize stocks held by 52 150 households (agro-pastoral) Livestock body condition Good for all livestock species in the mixed farming zone, Good for all livestock species Good to fair for cattle and sheep in across all livelihood zones pastoral and agro-pastoral zones Water consumption (litres 12-15 in pastoral and agro-pastoral Agro-pastoral: 20-25pd per person per day) zones Pastoral: 20-25pd 15-20 in the mixed farming and up to Mixed Farming: 25-30 25 in the irrigated farming Irrigated: 25-30 Price of maize (per kg) 52 42 Distance to grazing (km) Mixed farming: 1-3 Mixed farming: 1 Irrigated: 1-3 Irrigated: 1-3 Agro-pastoral: 3-7 Agro-pastoral: 3-4 Pastoral: 6-13 Pastoral: 5-6 Terms of trade (pastoral 48kg 71kg zone) Coping strategy index Mean 15.7 Mean: 14.1 Agro-pastoral 15.3 Agro-pastoral 18.2 Pastoral 18.4 Pastoral 14.2 Irrigated zone 2.8 Irrigated: 3.2 Food consumption score Poor: 18 Poor: 1.1 Borderline: 20 Borderline: 8.0 Acceptable: 61 Acceptable: 90.8 4. CROSS CUTTING ISSUES 4.1. Education Access (Enrolment) There was an increase of 799 children (439 girls, 360 boys) at the end of Term II in ECD enrolment within the county (Table 15). The increase was majorly attributed to the admissions of after age entry carried out through the year. Primary school enrolment was stable through Term I and II across all the sub counties. Secondary schools enrolment increased in Term II compared to Term I due to increase in allocation of free day secondary education fund and free registration of candidates by Kenya National Examination Council (KNEC). Table 15: Enrolment Term I 2018 Term II 2018 Enrolment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECD 26,779 25,059 51,838 27,139 25,498 52,637 Primary 74,064 69,623 144,592 74,534 69,910 144,444 Secondary 20,798 20,633 41,431 21,858 21,042 42,900 Participation (Attendance) The average monthly attendance of pupils in ECD centres decreased in Term II compared to Term I because of delay in disbursement of HGMP funds to primary schools. ECDE centres which are devolved at the County rely on primary schools for meals because theres no budgetary allocation at the County. Despite the increase in enrolment at ECDE centres, Marigat Sub County recorded 373 pupils unable to attend classes due to floods and insecurity. In Baringo Central sub county 287 pupils (236 boys and 51 girls) from secondary school missed school due to negative influence from peers, transfers and motor bike riding for boys. Early pregnancies, peer influence, motor bike riding and transfers were the main cause in low attendance of girls and boys in February and June respectively. Retention (Drop out) There was no significant drop out reported although daily absenteeism was experienced from time to time across all levels. Drop out of girls from school is normally associated with early pregnancies, negative influences, drugs and lack of school fees. Boys on the other hand drop out in search of money through motor bike riding, drugs and negative influences. The main reasons for absenteeism in school for ECD centres, primary and secondary schools were lack of food in school (delay in delivery of food). School Meals Programme (SMP) A total of 336 public primary schools with 71,937 pupils are under the Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGMP) supported by the Government of Kenya (GoK) and World Food Programme (WFP) as shown in table 16. The food basket includes maize, beans, vegetable oil and salt. The Homegrown School Meals Programme is the only programme in all public primary schools in the county. This programme has contributed to an increased and sustained enrolment in all public primary schools within the county by attracting children to school, improving learners attendance and boosting their retention rate while in class. Water and firewood shortages remained the challenges experienced in the programme leading to pupils missing meals occasionally. Occasional delay in disbursement of HGSFP fund to Primary schools which delayed the procurement processes has constrained the provision of meals to pupils. Public ECD pupils have a snack in the form of enriched porridge supported by the county government. Table 16: School Meals Programme Sub-County HGSMP No. of Boys Girls Totals Schools Koibatek - - - Mogotio 67 10,586 10,489 21,075 B North 71 6,937 6,539 13,476 BCentral 34 3,141 3,101 6,242 Marigat 49 6,347 6,295 12,642 Tiaty 115 10,709 7,793 18,502 Totals 336 37,720 34,217 71,937 5. FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1. Assumptions According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), there is an elevated probability that cumulative rainfall for the October to December short rains will be above average over the eastern and western Kenya. According to the veterinary department given the outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Logumgum, there is high likelihood of the spread of the RFV to other parts of the county leading to market disruptions due to quarantine in Barwessa and Baringo South. Based on Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET)s integrated price projections, wholesale maize prices are expected to remain below the 2017 prices and also the five year average maize prices over the scenario period with expected favourable harvests. According to the State department of Agriculture, Fall Army Warm (FAW) infestation will likely remain at 10 to 15 percent through the scenario period due to the mitigating effect of the heavy March to May rains. According to FEWSNET June, 2018 to January, 2019 food security outlook, pasture and water sources are expected to atypically remain above normal through September to the onset of the short rains. 5.2. Food Security Outlook for August to October, 2018 The food security situation in the county is expected to remain stable across all the livelihood zones until the onset of the short rains. Household food consumption score is expected to remain stable with majority of households moving to acceptable food consumption score. Less severe food based coping strategies are likely to be employed by households with a significant reduction in the proportion of households employing stressed food based coping strategies. Nutritional status of children is expected to remain stable given the availability of milk at household level and continued integrated health outreach services. No food security related mortalities are expected between September and November. There is no likely change expected in the phase classification for the scenario period. 5.3. Food Security Outlook for November to January, 2019 Food security situation over the period December to February, is projected to remain stable but on a declining trend with minimal food deficits. Even though rangeland and body conditions are expected to be normal following the short rains, food security outcome indicators are expected to decline. Food consumption gaps are likely to be experienced with a good proportion of households moving from acceptable food consumption score to borderline food consumption score due to diminishing household stocks and reduced milk availability. Households are expected to employ moderate or insurance food based coping strategies like reducing the number of meals consumed a day or the portion of meal sizes. Nutritional status for children under five years is anticipated to remain stable due continued integrated outreach programmes. The phase classification for the county is expected to remain stressed for the pastoral livelihood zone and minimal for all other livelihood zones. 6. CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 6.1. Conclusion 6.1.1. Phase Classification The food security phase classification for the county is minimal (IPC Phase 1) for mixed farming, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and stressed (IPC Phase 2) for the pastoral all species livelihood zone. 6.1.2. Summary of Findings There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in 2018 compared to the same season last year. The mean food consumption score in the county is 65. 91 percent of households having acceptable food consumption score, eight percent having borderline and one percent having poor food consumption scores. The proportion of households within the borderline food consumption score was 23.3 percent and 31.7 percent in pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The mean reduced coping strategy index is 14.1 with female having a mean of 17.5 while male have a mean coping strategy of 12.6. Only 1.5 percent of the population are not employing any coping strategy. 24.4 percent of the households reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat; 20.5 percent reduced the portion size of meals; 18.1 percent reduced number of meals per day; 16.8 percent borrowed food or relied from friends or relatives; and 16.5 percent relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. The GAM prevalence rate for the county based on the weighted average was 6.9 percent with Tiaty Sub County recording GAM prevalence rate of 16.8 percent compared to 25.2 percent recorded same period last year. The proportion of children below five years who are at risk of malnutrition decreased from 14.9 percent in June to 12.9 percent in July 2018 which is below 13.5 percent recorded in July, 2017. 6.1.3. Sub-County Ranking Table 17: Ranking of Sub-County in order of Food insecurity Severity Sub-County Sub-County Ranking Current main food security threats (1Most food insecure, 4Least food insecure) Tiaty 1 High malnutrition rates, Poor accessibility of roads, reported cases of livestock deaths, poor quality water, floods, high temperatures Baringo South 2 Insecurity fears, Upsurge of IDPs, Floods, closure of schools due to insecurity and floods, closure of health centres, outbreak of Rift Valley Fever Baringo North 3 LSD in Barwessa, Poor infrastructure, floods, markets closure in Barwessa ward, high temperatures, Mogotio 4 Floods, Fall Army Worm, Livestock diseases, Blue Tongue, fast depletion of water sources, high food prices, human diseases Baringo Central 5 Landslides, flooding in the lowlands, high food prices, Eldama Ravine 6 Fall Army Worm, Livestock Diseases (Blue Tongue) 6.2. Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food Interventions Home Grown School Feeding programmes covering 71,917 pupils in 336 primary schools. 5.2.2 Non-Food Interventions Provision of air tight Reduction on All wards Ksh. 1.3 Schools-12 2017-2018 BCG Post-harvest devices post-harvest million Individuals Department of losses -300 Agriculture Provision of relief Improved 10 wards Ksh. 2,310 2017-2018 BCG inputs (Planting seeds, production and 1,000,000 Department of Land preparation and productivity Agriculture Fertilizer) Control of FAW Reduce the All wards Ksh. 20,000 2017-2018 BCG through sensitization attack of Maize 1,100,000 Department of and supply of chemical crop Agriculture Disease control Reduced Baringo Ksh. All February to BCG and (Vaccinations and incidences of Central, 2,700,000 livestock December Department of vector control) livestock South, farmers Livestock diseases leading North, to improved Mogotio livestock body condition Feeds provision; Hay Increase Baringo Ksh. 20,000 Feb 2017-June MOALF, and Range cubes chances of South, 20,000,000 Livestock 2018 BCG livestock Baringo (TLUs) NDMA survival during North, drought period Tiaty Disease surveillance on Ensure proper All Sub Ksh. 100,000 Feb 2017-June BCG(MOALF RVF and other diseases monitoring of Counties 50,000 TLUs 2018 ) disease incidences for proper interventions Capacity building of Well Infirmed All Sub Ksh. 200 Throughout BCG(MOALF Farmers (Normal staff and Counties 5,000,000 ) Extension and Pastoral farmers for best Partners Field School Concept) practices Water trucking Improve water Whole Ksh. 8 On going BCG, NG, access County 500,000 Institutions BHs rehabilitation Improve water Whole Ksh. 200 On going BCG, NG, access County 10,000,000 households RCS, Capacity building on Capacity Whole Ksh. 2 Sub On going RCS, WV, water management and strengthening on County 600,000 counties UNCEF catchment protection water resource management Construction of New Improve water Whole Ksh. 1,560 1year BCG, NG, water Projects access County 46,000,000 households RCS, WV Vitamin A To improve the All health Ksh 70,000 Routine MOH Supplementation Micronutrient facilities, 1,850,000 household supported by status of the selected s UNICEF, community- ECD WVK Zinc Supplementation To improve the All health Ksh. 32,000 Routine County Micronutrient facilities 2,000,000 household department of status of the s health community- security Management of Acute To 100 health Ksh. 1,500 Routine County Malnutrition (IMAM) improveadjust facilities 20,000000 household department of the Nutrient s health status of the Surge at 6 supported by affected health National community. facilities in government, East Pokot UNICEF, WVK and IYCN Interventions To lower All health Ksh. 20,000 Routine County (EBF and Timely Intro morbidity and facilities 1,000,000 household Department of of complementary mortalities and s Health Foods) hence community improving food units Iron Folate To improve the All health Ksh. Ksh. 21,000 Routine County Supplementation Micronutrient facilities 2,450,000 household Department of among Pregnant status of the ANC s Health Women community- supported by Deworming To enhance All health Ksh. 21,000 Routine County children facilities 1,000,000 children department of participation ANC health and growth supported by UNICEF Food Fortification To improve the All health Ksh. 31,000 Routine County (MNPS-micronutrient Micronutrient facilities 700,000 household department of powder status of the ANC s health supplementation. community- supported by SMP To increase All sub 336 Continuous M.O.EWFP access and counties schools retention of learners 71,937 pupils Supply of water storage To increase Baringo One One year UNICEF tanks access and Central secondary retention of school learners, and with 102 Supply of water To improve Baringo One One year UNICEF safeguards access to clean Central secondary water school with 170 6.3. Recommended Interventions 6.3.1. Food Interventions Following the assessment of the long rains on the impact on various sectors, the team recommended reduction in the population in need of immediate food aid in the county as shown in Table 18 below. Table 18: Population in need of Food Assistance SNo. Sub-County Population in need Proposed mode of ( range min max) intervention 1 Tiaty 15-20 CFA 2. Baringo South 10-15 CFA 3. Baringo North 10-15 CFA 4. Mogotio 5-10 CFA 5 Baringo central 1-5 CFA 6 Eldama Ravine 1-5 CFA 6.3.2. Non-Food Interventions ALL Development of All 111,000 County Ksh. 5M Human 2018-2019 strategy for the households Government , resources Department Development Developme partners nt documents including CIDP, Manifesto ALL Capacity building of All 50 staff Department of Ksh. 2M Staff Immediately staff on FAW control Agriculture and and provision of stakeholders ALL Increase in provision All 8,000 MOALF Ksh. 3M Technical 1 year of farm inputs to households personnel Jan. Nov. farmers (seed, to train 2018 planting and top farmers dressing fertilizers) ALL Water Harvesting for All 10,000 MOALF , Ksh. Technical 2018-2022 household food households WORLD 15M personnel security- Farm ponds VISION and equipping NDMA, CIM, existing ones and ACTION AID, irrigation schemes ADS ALL Post Harvest All 20,000 MOALF and Ksh. 1M Technical One year technologies households stakeholders staff promotion Baringo Livestock off- All 1,500 BCG(MOALF) Ksh. Technical August, North take(Market households ,Nat. 20M officers 2018-Dec, Tiaty SupportCess) Govt.(KLMC) 2018 Baringo - NDMA South All Sub Disease control(Rift All RVF- BCG, National Ksh. 9M Technical Feb, 2018- counites Valley Fever, areas(Blue 60,000 government officers Mar, 2018 Blue Tongue and tongue) Blue and Lumpy skin disease) RVF Tongue- Development Disease surveillance (Marigat, 150,000 partners Mogotio, FMD- and All 50,000 areas(FMD), (Barwessa) Baringo Provision of pasture All Wards 2,000 MOALF(BLRP Ksh.10 Land August North seeds households ) M 2018-Sept Tiaty BCG 2018 Baringo RPLRP South NDMA(EU) Mogotio Partners Baringo Establishment of 3 in Tiaty, 2 41,500 MOALF 54M Technical Aug 2018- North strategic livestock in Baringo households BCG officers Dec,2018 Tiaty feed reserves; 3 in North 2 in NDMA(EU) Baringo Tiaty, 2 in Baringo Baringo Partners South North 2 in Baringo south and 1 Mogotio south and 1 in in Mogotio All Sub Rehabilitation All Sub 1,850 BCG, NG, Ksh. Technical 1-3 months Counties Servicing of pumping Counties households RCS, WV, 10M officers units UNCEF, All Sub Roof Water All Sub 120 BCG, NG, Ksh. 3M - 1-3 months Counties harvesting structures Counties Institutions RCS, WV, UNCEF, All Sub Stock piling of Fast 4 Sub 20 BCG, NG, Ksh. 1-3 months Counties Moving Spares counties community RCS, WV, 10M water UNCEF, supplies. NDMA All Sub Water Bowzer All Sub 4 Sub BCG, NG, RCS Ksh. 1M 1-3 months Counties servicing and repairs Counties counties including Motor vehicle tyres provision All Sub Capacity building on All Sub All BCG, NG, Ksh. 1M 1-3 months Counties WASH Water Counties RCS, WV, Management and UNCEF, Catchment protection ACTED, ACTION AID, All Sub Drilling and Across the All BCG, NG, Ksh. 1-5 years Counties Equipping of County RCS, WV, 40M strategic BHs along UNCEF, migratory routes and NDMA settlement areas All Sub Construction and Across the All BCG, NG, Ksh. 1-5 years Counties Rehabilitation of County RCS, WV, 20M potential Low Cost UNCEF, Water Supplies NDMA, CIM, All Sub Construction of four Across the All BCG, NG, 20M 1-5 years Counties (4) earth dams for County RCS, WV, domestic and UNCEF, irrigation water use NDMA All Sub Capacity building on Across the All BCG, NG, Ksh. 5M 1-5 years Counties Wash Water County RCS, WV, managementResourc UNCEF, es Mobilization NDMA, CIM, Conflict resolution WFP and management and Catchment protection County Map hot sport Most 102492 WVK 0.6M August to wide affected area MOH Dec 2018 East Pokot Scale up IMAM Hot spots 4811 WVK, MOH 0.6M August - Surge December County Nutrition 45 hotspots 27,000 AFYA UZAZI 2M 3 months wide Surveillance MOH, WVK County Health and Nutrition County wide 10,000 MOH 2M 3 months wide education at UNICEF Community level AFYA UZAZI All Vitamin A County wide 107,492 MOH, WVK Ksh. August - All Zinc County wide 132,000 Health Services Ksh. December Supplementation 4.5M 2018 All Management of County wide 7,362 MOH, Ksh. August - Acute Malnutrition WVKUNICEF 4.5M December (IMAM) and WPP 2018 All MIYCN E County wide 105,321 MOH, WVK Ksh. Interventions (EBF 4.5M and Timely Intro of complementary Foods) All Iron Folate County wide 26,596 MOH, WVK Ksh. August - among Pregnant 2018 Women All SMART Survey Countywide Ksh. December - 10M Jan, 2019 All Deworming County wide 107,492 MOH, WVK Ksh. Sept.2018-r 4.5M 2018 Baringo IGAS Educational Salawa zone 1,900 MOA, 1M BOM, Long Term Central learning Activities Livestock, Parents 5 years Fisheries , Labour Irrigation, MOE Baringo Green house Kabasis and 800 MOA,MOE, 0.5M Land 5 years Central Timboiywo BOM, ENV. Labour primary Technical skill Baringo Environmental Tenges 600 MENR 0.2M Land 5 years Central Conservation BPrimary Labour School Technical Skill",
            "Baringo_County_LRA_2019.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2019 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and Baringo County Steering Group July 2019 1 Lillian K. Marita (Ministry of Health) and Shamton Waruru (National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) Page 1 of 30 The 2019 long rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) together with the technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) that were drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition sectors and other stakeholders. The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the short rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the long rains of 2019. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. Rainfall performance for the long rains was near normal to normal, high food prices, livestock diseases and incidences of resource-based conflicts were the main food insecurity drivers. Food is currently available in the households particularly in the mixed farming livelihood zone as the 42 percent of the food stocks held in the county are largely in this livelihood. Livestock productivity is normal as evidenced by the good body condition of livestock and milk is available though below normal in the pastoral livelihood zones. Currently, households in the irrigated cropping, mixed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones have access to food. Despite the increase in maize prices by 19 percent, goat prices have also increased by 15 percent when compared to the long- term averages. Consequently, the terms of trade are within the seasonal averages. Markets functions were normal and are well provisioned with food largely from other counties except for Loruk market where no activities are going on due to tension and fear of insecurity. Distances to water sources for domestic consumption have remained within seasonal norms in all livelihood zones except a slight increase noted in the pastoral livelihood. Water consumption has reduced across the livelihoods. In the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, households are consuming 10-15 litres per person per day while those in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones are consuming more than 15 litres per person per day. Hand-washing and water treatment across the livelihood zones is minimal at less than 10 percent for each of the indicators and as such are affecting the utilization pillar of food security. National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) surveillance data indicated that households having acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption as at July 2019 were 60.7, 34.5 and 4.9 percent respectively. The households who were not employing any food consumption related coping strategies were 17.2 percent and the remaining 40.7 and 42.2 percent used Stressed and Crisis coping strategies respectively. Regarding livelihood change, there were 48.5 percent not employing any coping strategy while another 39.9 and 11.2 percent were using Stressed and emergency coping strategies respectively. The Nutrition status is Serious in Baringo North and South where the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rate was 9.3 percent ad it was Critical, in Tiaty Sub county which had GAM rate of 20.9 percent. There were no unusual deaths reported and thus the Under Five Mortality Rate and the Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) were considered to be below the emergency cut offs. Baringo County is therefore classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the agro pastoral, NoneMinimal (IPC Phase 1) in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the pastoral livelihood zones of Tiaty Sub-county. Page 2 of 30 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 2 3.1.1 Crops Production .......................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Cereals stock ................................................................................................................. 7 3.1.3 Livestock Production .................................................................................................... 7 3.2.1 Market operations ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Markets prices and Terms of Trade ............................................................................ 12 3.2.3 Income sources ........................................................................................................... 13 3.2.4 Water access and availability ..................................................................................... 14 3.2.5 Food Consumption ..................................................................................................... 16 3.2.6 Coping strategy ........................................................................................................... 16 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ................................................................................ 17 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation .......................................................... 17 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity ....................................................................... 18 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene ............................................................................................... 19 6.2.1 Ongoing Interventions ................................................................................................ 24 6.2.2 Recommended Interventions ...................................................................................... 27 Page 3 of 30 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The area of the county is approximated at 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) and a population of 703,697 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Projection). The county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely:- Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. 22 There are five main livelihoods in the county which include, mixed farming, 4 pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated Pastoral Agro pastoral cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are Irrigard Cropping Mixed Farming drought, water shortages and variable Figure 1: Proportion of Population per Livelihood high food prices and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones. 1.2 Methodology and approach The food and nutrition security assessment exercise is usually conducted twice a year to assess the impact of long and short rains on the livelihoods and as such develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis. Primary and secondary data is used in the assessment process. Primary data is collected from the community in sample sites that would be representative of the four main livelihood zones. The data was collected through semi structured focus group discussions, key informant and market interviews. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was then collated, analyzed and triangulated and analysis was by livelihood zones. The integrated food security phase classification (IPC) protocols were used to do the classification of the severity and identify the possible causes of food insecurity. The assessment exercise was conducted by a multisectoral and multi agency team comprising of lead team from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment in the county was done from 15th to 19th July, 2019. Page 4 of 30 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 3.1.11 Rainfall Performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April-May (MAM) which extends to July. The short rains season is in October-November and December. The onset of the season was late in the 3rd dekad of April compared to 3rd dekad of March normally. A total of 107.8 mm of rainfall was received compared to 297.4 mm normally. Majority of the county received 75-90 percent of normal with the southern parts of county particularly Mogotio and Eldama Ravine Sub County receiving near normal to normal rains of 90-110 percent together with some parts of Tiaty Sub County. Rains were erratic temporally and spatially they were unevenly distributed. The highest amount of rain was received in the 3rd dekad of April, thereafter rains were depressed. Trends of the vegetation cover index were below normal until the 1st dekad of July when it became above normal as a result of rains received in Figure 2: Rainfall performance as a the month of May through June. percent of normal in Baringo County 2.2 InsecurityConflict There were insecurity incidences in Kasiela area Baringo South Sub County where cattle were stolen. Tensions are also high in areas of Chemoe, Kagir, Tuluk, Chemanangoi, Nawe, Natan and Ngaratuko in Baringo North. The said tension has resulted in limiting access in Loruk area as the market is not optimally functional. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Livestock diseases were reported and specifically Camel disease known as Haemorrhagic septicaemia that led to the death of an estimated 200 camels in Tiaty Sub County. New Castle disease was also reported in the same sub county and led to the loss of 5000 poultry. Maize crop was affected by fall army worm as in 20 percent of the area planted however, measures have already been taken. 2.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 2.1 Availability Pasture and browse are currently available in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agropastoral livelihoods while pasture is below normal in the pastoral livelihood zone. The available forage is expected to last until and extend into the next short rains season which starts in October. Livestock body condition is good for all livestock species in the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zone but is fair in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Milk is available however, in the pastoral livelihood zones it was largely from camels. Households in the mixed farming livelihood zones have 55 percent of maize stocks. Supply of food stuffs in the markets are normal across the livelihoods and as such food is available in the county. Page 5 of 30 3.1.1 Crops Production The long rains season in Baringo county is significant as the county is dependent it. The main crops grown in the county under rain fed in the mixed farming livelihood zone are maize, beans, millets, Irish potatoes cowpeas and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (fruits and vegetables) and cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum). Maize, beans and finger millet are the main crops in both the agro pastoral and the mixed farming livelihood zones. In addition to maize, tomatoes and watermelons are grown under irrigation and each contributes to 90 percent of cash income and 10 percent of food. Maize in the agro pastoral, mixed farming and the irrigated cropping livelihood zones contributes to 90, 60 and 20 percent food while it contributes to 10, 40 and 80 percent of cash income respectively. Cowpeas, finger millet, and beans contribute to 40 percent of cash income and 60 percent of food in the agro pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones. Table 1: Acreage and Crop production under Rain fed in Baringo County Maize 38,172 41,133 900,550 1,017,295 Beans 17,066 19,421 154,812 222,323 Finger millet 6,402 5,220 41,513 34,325 Area planted under rain-fed for maize and beans was 93 and 88 percent of the long term average respectively while that for finger millet was 12 percent above the long term average. The maize crop is at various stages ranging from weeding to tasseling as households planted at different times as a result of delayed onset of rains which also varied across the livelihood zones. Maize is projected to be 88 percent of the long term average while that for the beans is projected to be 69 percent of the long term average. The decrease in production is attributed to the late onset of the long rains as a result of which farmers planted in different times and thus some crop yield will be reduced. Finger millet production is likely to be 20 percent above the long term average. The increase in production for finger millet is due to the increase in the acreage planted and provision of certified seeds. Table 2: Acreage and Production under Irrigation in Baringo County Maize 60 44 1460 436 Beans 18 24 360 480 Tomatoes 84 119 1820 2235 Water melon 32 85 640 1700 Cow peas 84 80 1260 1200 Page 6 of 30 Seed Maize 2054 1524 78,052 57,150 Crop farming under irrigation is done at Barwesa area and is largely for income, which fruits and vegetables as shown in Table 2. The maize grown is harvested while green as a source of income however, a large proportion of land is also put under seed maize. The acreage for maize and seed maize increased and was 36 and 34 percent above the long term average respectively. Area put under tomatoes reduced and was 70 percent of the long term average. Maize production increased and was more than three times of the long term averages while that for tomatoes reduced by 20 percent. The reduction in tomatoes was attributed to pests and diseases. Seed maize increased and is 30 percent above the short term average. The area under seed maize increased as more schemes were engaged in seed production like Loboi Lorwai irrigation scheme in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. 3.1.2 Cereals stock Table 23: Cereal Stocks in Baringo County Commodity Maize Millet Sorghum Farmers 90,878 164,600 1,324 1,646 257 645 Traders 30,951 38,135 587 651 253 292 Millers 25,668 16,948 158 22 0 0 Food AidNCPB 19,929 39,400 0 2,319 0 0 Total 167,426 259,083 Maize stocks in the county are 65 percent of the long term average. The current maize stocks are from the previous harvest as the crop in the farms is due for harvest as from August. The households hold 55 percent of the long term average while traders have 81 percent of the stocks they would normally hold. Millers on the other hand have above average stocks by 51 percent above the long term average while National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) have half of the stocks when compared to the long term average. The millet stocks being held by the households and the traders were 80 and 90 percent of the long term averages respectively. The sorghum stocks held by the households were low at 40 percent of the long term average while the traders had 86 percent of the long term average. Overall, food is currently available in the county and the stocks are likely to last 2-3 months compared to 3-4 months normally. 3.1.3 Livestock Production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. Goats contribute 60 percent of the household income in the agro pastoral livelihood zone while sheep, cattle and chickens contribute to 25, 14 and percent respectively. In the irrigated livelihood zone, the livestock reared are goats, sheep and cattle. In this livelihood zone, goats and sheep contribute to 65 and 15percent of household income respectively. In terms of food, goats contribute to 10 percent while the chicken and cattle contribute to 25 and 60 percent respectively. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, cattle contribute to 70 percent of the household income with goats and chicken contributing 15 and 10 percent respectively. In the pastoral livelihood zones, the shoats (goats and sheep) give the highest proportion to income where goats contribute to 60 percent of the income and sheep contribute to 30 percent. Goats contribute another 60 percent to food in this livelihood zone. Page 7 of 30 Table 3: Contribution of Livestock Production to Food and Income in Baringo County Livelihood zone contribution Food Income Mixed farming 25 23 Irrigated cropping 25 8 Agro-pastoral 20 50 Pastoral 21 88 Pasture and browse situation The pasture condition is good in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and fair to good in both agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The browse condition is good across all livelihood zones. The forage quality is fair to good in mixed farming livelihood zones but fair in the other three livelihood zones of the county. Pasture is expected to last 1.5-3 months as compared to normal 3-4 months; with only pastoral zones having limited of access due to insecurity. Areas with access limitation to forage include Mukutani, Arabal, Kalabata, Saimo soi and Kapedo. The livestock are usually grazed by male youth and women. In other cases, the livestock are released to the fields themselves and come back later on the afternoon. Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition in Baringo County Livelihood Pasture Browse Zone Condition Projected Factors Condition Projected Factors Duration to last limiting Duration to last limiting (Months) access (month) access Mixed Good Good 2 3 None Good Good 3 4 None Irrigated Good Good 2 3 None Good Good 3 4 None Agro- Fair Good 1.5 3 None Good Good 2 4 None Pastoral Fair Good 1.5 3 Insecurity Good Good 2 4 Insecurity tensions tensions Livestock Productivity Livestock body condition The livestock body condition for all livestock species is good in mixed farming livelihood zones, fair to good in irrigated cropping and good in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The current body conditions are attributed to fair quality forage. There is improved trend in body condition due to improving forage quality and the situation is likely to remain with the positive forecast by Kenya Metrological Department indicating continuation of the off season rainfall. The livestock body condition may lead to livestock prices upwards hence improving the farmers purchasing power. Page 8 of 30 Table 54: Livestock body condition Liveliho Cattle Sheep Goat Camel od Zone Curren Normal Curren Normal Curren Normal Curren Normal tly ly tly ly tly ly tly ly Mixed Good Good Good Good Good Good NA NA Irrigated Fair to Good Fair to Good Fair to Good cropping Good Good Good Agro- fair Good fair Good fair Good Good Good Pastoral fair Good fair Good fair Good Good Good Tropical livestock units (Tropical Livestock Units) and birth rates The present TLUs are three in poor households and 4.7 in the medium households (Table 5). There was slight decrease in TLUs as compared to normal as a result of delay in the kidding and lambing as a result of the experienced dry season as from March to May. The general birth rates were 2.5 across all livelihood zones. The current birth rate is low attributed to delayed conception as a result of previous poor performance of the rains that led to poor body condition. The deviations were due to low levels of forage and livestock body condition across the livelihood zones. The highest birth rates however, were reported in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping and lowest in agro- pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Table 6: Tropical Livestock Units for Baringo County Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming 2.7 3 3.2 4 Irrigated 2.4 3.5 3.9 5 Agro-pastoral 2.9 5 5 6 Pastoral 4.1 7 6.5 7 Milk Production and consumption The milk availability slightly increased with improvement of forage condition and reduction in trekking distance. The increases resulted in decrease of milk prices from Ksh.60 to Ksh. 50 in mixed and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and from Ksh. 90 to Ksh. 60 in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Milk that is available in the pastoral livelihood zones is sourced from the mixed farming zones. Milk consumption increased to 1-2 litres in the period under review compared to what was reported during the short rains and largely near normal in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agro pastoral livelihood zones. In the pastoral livelihood zones, the milk consumption is 50 percent of normal. Page 9 of 30 Table 7: Milk Availability, Consumption and Prices Livelihood zone Milk production per Milk consumption per Prices(KSh.) HH(Lts) HH(Lts) Mixed farming 6 8 1-2 2 40-50 60 Irrigated 6 8 1-2 2 50 60 Agro-pastoral 2.5 4 1-2 1.8 60 90 Pastoral 1.5 2 1 1.8 60 90 Livestock Migration, Diseases and Mortalities The only reported migrations were within the county, where in Baringo North at Saimo soi and in Tiaty, livestock movements were reported and the animals are currently in Silale, Paka, Korossi hills and Mallaso. There were diseases reported in the county as indicated in the table 8. The disease occurrences were in the normal ranges. The mortality rates were at two percent across the livelihoods except in the pastoral-all species livelihood zones where mortality was 2.5 percent. The camels had three percent mortality rate due to eruption of Hemorrhagic septicaemia. Disease surveillance is ongoing in all the counties and vaccination in targeted sub-counties as per available resources. Table 8: Livestock Diseases and Mortalities due to Diseases Baringo New Castle Across the sub county Poultry 5,000 Vaccinations Central Disease conducted in farms CCPP Across the subcounty Goats Endemic PPR Few cases reported Sheep Tiaty CCPP, PPR Across the subcounty Goats and Endemic Planned Sheep Vaccinations Haemorrhagic Across the subcounty Camels 200 Planning for drug septicaemia procurement then treatment FMD Cattle Planned camels Vaccinations Mogotio CCPP Majimoto, Kamar, Goats Endemic Vaccination done Simotwe, Sinende, Olkokwe, Oldebes, Lembus Mogotio, Eminining, Koibos, PPR Few areas Sheep and Planned goats Vaccinations FMD Re-current Cattle Blanthrax Cattle Vaccination done Eldama Plant poisoning Majimazuri, Mumberes 6 Vaccination done Ravine Abortions Ravine ward 8 cases Vaccination done ECF Ravine,Perkerra,L.kwen 27 cases Vaccination done Blanthrax Sub-county Cattle 20,067 cattle Page 10 of 30 Rabies Ravine Dogs Cases 50 reported. No deaths Baringo CCPP Kapkuikui and Loboi Goats No deaths Treatment of south affected stock Sheep goat pox Kimalel Shoats Vaccination Enterotoxaemia Kimorok Sheep and 1,000 Goats Heart water EwalelSoi, Kimalel Goats Awareness on ,KimondisBekibon, prevention Kiserian New Castle Marigat Poultry No vaccinations Disease Baringo CCPP Across the subcounty Goats 20 goats Endemic North (Endemic) PPR ,FMD, Red Saimo Soi, Barwessa Shoats, 16 goats Vaccinations against Water, LSD and cattle PPR are on going Mange Enterotoxaemia Sibilo Cattle 20 cattle Cases treated Water for Livestock The main sources of water include boreholes, permanent rivers, which are Kerio, Amaya, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Wasenges and Mukutani. The lakes include Bogoria, Baringo, Kamnarok and lake 94. The water pans were recharged between 50-70 percent but are still being recharged with the continued rains. The trekking distance decreased from 4-13 as compared to 4-10 in the last season. The watering frequency increased across all livelihood zones. The above dynamics have influenced positively; livestock body condition, milk production and also livestock prices. There was access limitation in the lakes due to crocodile hazards. Table 95: Water for Livestock in Baringo County Mixed Streams, Streams, 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout 7 7 farming Rivers, Rivers, springs, springs, piped piped water, water, boreholes, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, Rivers, 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout 7 7 cropping shallow shallow wells and wells and springs. springs. Agro- water pans, Streams, 4-10 3-7 2-3 months 3 months 7 7 pastoral Boreholes, water rivers, pans, streams Boreholes Page 11 of 30 Pastoral Bore- Water- 4-10 3-7 2 months 2 months 7 7 holes, pans, water pans, Bore-holes rivers 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Market operations The markets play a crucial role towards realization of the accessibility pillar of food security in terms of availing the food and income from the sales of the livestock. The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. There has been no market disruption at all markets in the county. Market supply for food commodities is mostly from outside the County which is normal for this time of the year. The main food stuffs being traded are maize, beans and vegetables. Supply of food items were normal across the livelihood zones. Supply of livestock were normal across the livelihood zones except in Loruk attributed to tensions and unwillingness to sell. Traded volumes for livestock were below normal in some markets while they were normal in Marigat, Barwesa, Nginyang and Amaya 3.2.2 Markets prices and Terms of Trade Maize price The average price for a kilogram of maize in the county as at July, 2019 was Ksh. 56. The current price was nine percent above the price recorded in June 2019 and was 19 percent above the long term 60 average of 2014-2018 (Figure 3). The price for July 50 was 33 percent above the price recorded at the same )g time last year. The highest prices of Ksh.60 per .h kilogramme of maize were reported in the pastoral- sK 30 all species livelihood zone while the lowest were recorded in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Ksh.42 per kilogramme. Maize prices have been on an upward trend as from February 2019 and remained below the long term averages recorded in Figure 3: Maize Prices in Baringo County the same period until May 2019 when the prices got above the long term averages (Figure 3). The increasing price was attributed to declining stocks at household levels and at local retailers. The prices are likely to reduce slightly but remain above the long term averages for the next three months. Page 12 of 30 Goat price The price of a medium sized goat as at July 2019 had increased and was Ksh. 2564 compared to Ksh. 2285 reported in June 2019. The current price is 15 percent above the five year average of 2014-2018 and 14 percent lower than what was reported in the same time in 2018 (Figure 4). The trend of the prices was on a downward trend as from January however, as from July the prices 3500 picked an upward trend. The prices have been above or comparable to the long term averages in the period January to July. The decrease in prices was attributed to the deterioration of the body condition due to the delay in the onset of ( e 1500 the long rains. The goat prices are likely to P 1000 follow the normal trend remaining within the 500 seasonal five year long term averages. There is likelihood of prices to slightly increase as from Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNovDec August for the next three months. Figure 4: Goat Prices in Baringo County Terms of trade The current terms of trade improved and were 12 percent above those reported in June 2019 although there percent below to the long term average. Currently, the sale of a goat can be exchanged for 46 kilograms e 89 00 of maize (Figure 5). The current terms of m a 70 fo r o 60 trade were 34 percent lower compared to s mf d those reported at a similar time last year a rg n 40 where the sale of one goat could be o liKh c exchanged for 70 kilograms of maize. The 10 trend of the terms of trade have been on a 0 downward trend since February 2019 although they remained above the long Figure 5: Terms of trade for Baringo County term average until May when they became comparable to the long term average (Figure 5). The trend could be attributed to the decrease in goat prices with a noted increase in maize prices across the livelihoods. The terms of trade are likely to remain stable in the next three months as no significant changes are expected in both the goat and maize prices. 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones with livestock production including meat, milk, hides, skins and by products contributing to 69, 30 and 26 percent of cash income in the pastoral-all species, missed farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones respectively. In the mixed farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, food crop production, contributes to 25 and 20 percent respectively. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, cash crop production contributes to 15 percent of cash income while small businesses contribute to 10 percent. Additionally, in the agropastoral livelihood zone, poultry production contributes to 15 percent. Page 13 of 30 Other current sources of income for the households are charcoal burning and casual labour as noted during the community interviews. Currently, 24, 23 and 21 percent of the households are getting their income from the sale of livestock, casual labour, sale of crops respectively. 11percent of the households are getting their income from petty trading and another 10 percent from formal employment at (West Pokot SMART Survey, June, 2019) 3.2.4 Water access and availability The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Normally, Water sources are mainly concentrated in mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Generally, Mixed farming and Irrigated Farming zones Communities have more access to water than in Pastoral livelihood zones. Water pans in the pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood areas of Tiaty sub county, Saimo Soi ward, Kinyach, Chemoe, Barsemoi, Majimoto, Kamar, Mbechot, Kapkelelwa, Bekibon, Bartabwa were recharged to between 30-40 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 80-90 normally and the water is likely to last for one to two months. In irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones, water pans were recharged up to 50 percent of their normal capacity. The water is expected to last for two to three months. The status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones are unstable. Currently 80 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones; however some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs. Ward Water No. of No. of Projected Normal of full Locality of Non- operational Liveliho Source Normal Current Duration Duration Capacity Water Sources od zone (Three (3) Operational Operational (Operational that Recharged major Sources Sources) water by the sources) last in Rains Pastoral Bore Holes 76 70 Over 6 Over 6 stable Ngooron Bh, Kreeze Bh, Kirim Months months Bh , Ngoron, Sosionde , Silonga Water 63 63 1-2 Months 3 4 50 - 60 Springs 10 10 3 - 4 Months 4 5 30 - 40 Agro - Bore Holes 56 52 Over 6 Over 6 stable Kadokoi, Sewa(Kisanana ward), Pastoral Months months Kimorok BH Water 23 19 1-2 Months 3 4 50 - 60 Springs 18 18 3-4Months Over 6 30 - 40 Mixed Bore Holes 39 36 Over 6 Over 6 stable Farming Months months Springs 135 135 Over 6 Over 6 50 - 60 Rivers 6 6 Over 6 4 -5 40 - 50 Irrigated Rivers 6 6 3months Over 6 90 -100 Cropping months Shallow 8 3 3-4months Over 6 Reducing Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Wells months Discharge Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamps 3 3 Over 3 stable Page 14 of 30 Distance to water sources and waiting time According to the SMART survey findings, In Tiaty subcounty, the average distances to domestic water sources were varied with 34. 6 percent doing less than half a kilometer and another 48 percent doing 0.5- 2 kilometers. In Baringo North and South sub counties, majority of the households (58.7 percent) were covering less than 0.5 kilometers and another 35.3 percent covering more than 0.5- 2 kilometers to less than two kilometers. The remaining six percent reported to be covering more than two kilometers. The distances in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones remained within the seasonal norms of 0.5-1.5 kilometers. The duration of time spent queuing for water is projected to increase in pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones if the situation will not improve due to high temperatures prevailing at the moment. The waiting time at the source in Mixed farming livelihood zone is between 3 - 5 minutes which is above normal while in pastoral and agro - pastoral areas it was between 5 and 7 minutes. Waiting time varied with the households that were queuing for less than 30 minutes being 91.3 percent, 30-60 minutes were 6.5 percent and more than 60 minutes, 2.2 percent in Tiaty Sub County. In Baringo North and South sub-county, the proportion of households who were queuing for less than 30 minutes were 68.9 percent; 30 to 60 minutes, 15.6percent and above 60 minutes were 15.6 percent. Cost of water and Consumption The cost of water at the source is generally stable at Ksh. 3 and 5 across all livelihoods. Water consumption per person per day is normal at 15 20 litres per person per day in the irrigated cropping and more than 20 litres in the mixed farming livelihood zone. In the agro-pastoral livelihood zone, consumption remained normal at 10-15 litres per person per day except for some hotspots experiencing water shortages in Mogotio Sub County particularly in Kapyemit, Mugurin, Kapnosigei, Eldebes, Kapkitur, Kamar, Kitecho, Molok, Maji Moto and Sirwa areas. In the pastoral livelihood zones consumption reduced and is currently 8-10 litres per person per day compared to the normal 10-15 litres per person per day. Households in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistence of water related diseases like Typhoid, Amoeba, diarrhea and Malaria. There was reported suspected water contamination following reports that some flower farms that are discharging their effluents directly into river Tilatil. Ward Return Distance Cost of Water at Waiting Time at Average Water livelihood to Water for Source (Ksh. Per Water Source Consumption zone Domestic Use 20litres) (Minutes) (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 3 4 5-7 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 5-7 10-15 8-10 Agro Pastoral 3 3.5 4-6 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 5-7 10-15 10-15 Mixed 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 3-5 20 15-20 Farming Irrigated 0.5- 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 15-20 15-20 Cropping Page 15 of 30 3.2.5 Food Consumption According to the NDMA Early Warning Bulletin, as at July, 2019, the proportions of households having acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption scores in the county 100 were 60.7, 34.5 and 4.9 percent respectively. In the irrigated cropping ga livelihood zone, all the households were tn e cre 46 00 48.944.4 51.7 44.8 having acceptable food consumption scores. In the agro pastoral livelihood zone, the proportion of households with Pastoral-all species Agro pastoral Irrigated cropping acceptable, borderline and poor food Acceptable Borderline Poor consumption scores were 51.7, 44.8 and 3.4 percent respectively and had reduced Figure 6: Food Consumption Scores per livelihood in from 93 percent who were reported to have acceptable food consumption scores in June (Figure 6). In the pastoral livelihood zone, the proportion of households having acceptable food consumption scores had reduced to 48. 9 compared to 55.6 percent reported in June. Those having borderline and poor food consumption scores in this livelihood were 44.5 percent compared to 35.5 percent reported in June, 2019. The proportion of households who were having poor food consumption scores was 6.7 percent. In Baringo County, the proportion of households having acceptable food consumption score reduced from 80 percent reported in January during the short rains assessment to the current 60.7 percent while that for households having borderline food consumption scores increased from 17 to 34.5 percent. A small proportion of the households (17.2 percent) were not employing any food consumption related coping strategies while the remaining 40.7 and 42.2 percent used stressed and crisis coping strategies. 70, 31.8 and 3.4 percent were employing Stressed coping strategies in the irrigated cropping, pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Those not employing any coping mechanisms were 30 and 20.7 percent in the irrigated cropping and the pastoral livelihood zones respectively. It was noted that majority of the households (96.6 percent) in the agro pastoral livelihood zone were employing crisis strategies. 3.2.6 Coping strategy Based on NDMA data, the mean coping strategy index (CSI) for the county in July, 2019 was 14.3 and was comparable to what was reported in June however, it reduced from 16.3 reported in May, 2019. When compared to the same time last year, the coping strategy index had reduced from 18.3. In the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zone, the coping strategy index was 27 and 14.5 respectively. The lowest coping strategy index was reported in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 4.3 percent. According to data received from NDMA in July 2019, with regard to livelihood change, at the county level there were 48.5 not using coping strategies. Overall, the proportion of households employing Stressed and Crisis coping strategies were 39.9 and 11.2 percent respectively. In the agro pastoral livelihood zone, none were using any coping mechanism while in the pastoral livelihood zone 41.3 and 0.6 were employing stressed and crisis coping strategies respectively. In the irrigated cropping livelihood zone 90 percent indicated not using any coping strategy while the remaining 10 percent were using Stressed coping strategies. Page 16 of 30 According to the SMART survey preliminary results, 50 percent of the households reported employing food consumption related coping strategies in Baringo North and South sub Counties. In Tiaty Sub County, SMART survey results indicated that a proportion of 75 percent employed coping strategies. The CSI was 15.3 percent and is lower compared to 2018 similar time. The most frequently employed coping strategy across the livelihoods was restricting consumption by adults in order for the children to eat (SMART Survey, Baringo North and South and Tiaty). 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns The most prevalent diseases in the county were upper respiratory tract infections, malaria and diarrhea in which according to the survey carried out in Tiaty, 15, 10 and eight percent of the children under fives respectively were Morbidity Trends for Under Fives reported to have had those illnesses in the two weeks prior to the survey (SMART sesaC fo rebm 11 02 46800 0 000 0000 s ue ly at, fy rd, e2 mr0 1 o rar yb i t ty et nr e egn ed 2ns 1f ro 9ar 2000 remained within the seasonal norms when Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun compared to the same period in 2018 and Diarrhoea 2017 Diarrhoea 2018 2017 (Figure 7). Diarrhoea 2019 Upper Respiratory Tract Infections 2017 Upper Respiratory Tract Infections 2018 Upper Respiratory Tract Infections 2019 Cases of dysentery reported in January to Figure 7: Morbidity trends for Under Fives in Baringo June 2019 increased by 50 percent and were 1403 cases compared to a total of 932 cases reported in the same period in 2018 and 829 cases in 2017. The increase in cases was attributed to water contamination as a result of a prolonged the dry period experienced in March through to May, 2019 and as such water sources were being utilized by both human and animals. 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Based on DHIS data, the proportion of fully immunized children in the county between January and June 2019, was 70.1 percent and comparable to the same period in 2018 however, it was below the national target of 80 percent. Immunization coverage was highest in Marigat and Mogotio Sub counties standing at 92.0 and 91.3 percent respectively. All the other Sub counties had coverage below the national target and was particularly low in East Pokot and Tiaty sub Counties at 51.3 and 40.2 percent respectively (Table 2). Table 6: Immunization Coverage Per Subcounty Sub County Percent of Fully Immunized Child (FIC) 2018 2019 Baringo Central 88.0 75.0 Baringo North 64.3 63.3 East Pokot 21.2 51.3 Koibatek 74.0 79.9 Marigat 89.0 92.0 Mogotio 89.7 91.3 Tiaty 40.2 County Average 70.2 71.0 Page 17 of 30 Vitamin A coverage between January and June, 2019 for children aged 6-59 months was 59.8 percent compared to 50.0 percent reported during the same period in 2018 (DHIS data). The increase in the coverage was attributed to the 80 71.4 Malezi Bora exercise that was done in May of 2019 coupled with the uninterrupted supply of 60 52 e g a 50 40.8 40.2 40.3 Vitamin A supplements. Children aged 6-11 tn e 40 months who were supplemented in Jan to June 2019 were 70.1 percent while those aged 12- 10 59 months were 58.5 percent. According to the SMART survey done in Tiaty Subcounty in 6-11 months 12-95months 6-69 months June 2019, Vitamin A supplementation Baringo North South Tiaty coverage for 6-11 months was 40.8 percent Figure 8: Vitamin A supplementation by Age while that for children aged 12-59 months were 40.2 percent for. Overall, the proportion of children aged 6-59 months who had received Vitamin A supplementation once were 40.3 percent (Figure.8). 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity Meal consumption has remained normal across the livelihoods with households in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones consuming two meals per day and households in the irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zone are consuming the normal three meals. Household dietary diversity information collected in Baringo North and South through the nutrition SMART survey, indicated that the proportion of households consuming 5 five food groups are 61 percent, a decrease from 73.4 percent reported at a similar time last year. Those households consuming 3- 5 food groups was 37.7 percent compared to 23.3 percent in the same period in 2018. The households consuming 3 food groups was 1.3 percent in both years. In Tiaty Sub county, the proportion of households consuming 5 five food groups (28.2 percent); 3-5 food groups (60.8 percent) and 3 food groups were 13 percent. Nutrition status has deteriorated in the Sub County which is pastoral livelihood as the proportion of those consuming more than five groups had reduced in June 2019 compared to 38.6 percent reported in 2018. The NDMA data indicated that the Average (2014-2018) 2018 2019 proportion of children under five years 25 with MUAC (135mm) was 20.2 percent in July 2019 and was noted to be 46 percent 5 3 above the long term averages of 2014- 1 15 C 2018. When compared to June 2018, the U 10 current proportion was 56 percent above ( k 5 however, this proportion had remained s ir similar to what was reported in May 2018 a Jan FebMarAprMay Jun Jul AugSepOctNovDec (Figure 9). During the period January to June 2019, the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition based on mid upper Figure 9: Proportion of Children at risk of malnutrition arm circumference (MUAC) 135mm) MUAC 135mm showed an upward trend as from March and was above the long term averages as from May. The highest proportions of children at risk of Page 18 of 30 malnutrition were reported in Kapenguria, Komolion and Ribko wards in the pastoral livelihood zones where 42.4, 32.4 and 31.7 percent respectively. The high malnutrition rates in these wards are largely due to alcoholism as a result there is poor infant and child care practices. The global acute malnutrition rate for Baringo North and South is 9.3 percent and severe acute malnutrition rate 2.3 percent (SMART survey Baringo North and South, June, 2019). The results indicate that there has been no significant change in the nutrition status when compared to a similar time last year when the GAM rate was 7.8 percent and thus it remains in the Serious Phase (IPC Acute Malnutrition Classification). In Tiaty Sub County, the global acute malnutrition status was 20.9 percent with a severe acute malnutrition rate of 3.5 percent. Based on the global acute malnutrition rates, there was a significant change in the nutrition status compared to the same time last year. The most likely cause of malnutrition are food insecurity coupled with poor infant and young children feeding practices and poor health seeking behaviour especially in pastoral livelihood zone. 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene The main sources of water currently are sub surface water sources as evidenced by 52.3 percent who reported use of water from sub surface water. In Tiaty Sub County and Baringo North Sub Counties, 76.2 and 52.3 percent of the households respectively reported drawing water from the open sources. Water treatment was being done by a dismal 4.4 percent in Tiaty Sub County while 28.6 percent in Baringo North and South. The most common treatment method used in Baringo North and South was boiling (71.1 percent) while in Tiaty most of the households used pot filters (59.1 percent) (SMART Survey, June 2019). The low water treatment rates may be the cause of the water borne diseases reported in the community. Hand washing at the four critical moments was 2.2 and 10.1 percent in Tiaty and Baringo North and South respectively. Those who used soap and water were 24.7 percent in Tiaty. In Baringo North and South, those who did hand washing using soap and water were 69.5 percent. The county latrine coverage up to June 2019 was 44.1 percent with East Pokot Sub County having the lowest at 3.2 percent. Open defecation was high across the livelihoods as evidenced by the SMART Survey data where 93.3 percent of the households in Tiaty Sub County relieved themselves in the bush or open field. In Baringo North, 27.2 percent were reported to be relieving themselves in the bush or open field. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 7: Food Security Trends in West Pokot County of maize stocks held by 118 households (agro-pastoral) Livestock body condition Agro Pastoral Good to fair Agro Pastoral Fair Irrigated Good Irrigated Good cropping Cropping Mixed Farming Good Mixed Farming Good Pastoral-all Fair to poor Pastoral-all Fair species species Water consumption (litres Agro Pastoral 12-15lpppd Agro Pastoral 10-15 litres per per person per day) person per day Irrigated 20-25lppd Irrigated 20-25 litres per Cropping Cropping person per day Page 19 of 30 Pastoral- all 12-15 litres per Irrigated 8-10 litres per species person per day person per day Mixed Farming 15-20 litres per Mixed Farming 15-20 litres per person per day person per day Price of maize (per kg) Ksh.36 Ksh. 55.7 Distance to grazing Mixed Farming 1-4kilometers Mixed Farming 1 Kilimetere Agro Pastoral 4-13 Agro Pastoral 1-2 kilometres Pastoral 4-13 kilometres Pastoral 3-4 kilometres Irrigated 1-4 kilometres Irrigated Cropping Cropping Terms of trade (pastoral 46 zone) Coping strategy index 13.5 County-14.3 Agro Pastoral-18.8 Agro Pastoral-27 Pastoral-14.7 Pastoral-14.5 Irrigated Cropping-2.6 Irrigated Cropping-4.3 Food consumption score Acceptable 80 percent Acceptable 60.7 Borderline 17 percent Borderline 34.5 Poor 3 percent Poor 4.9 3.0 CROSS CUTTING ISSUES 4.1 Education 4.1.1 Enrolment In Early Childhood Development Centers, there were 25,621 boys and 25,699 girls in term one, while in term two there were 26,134 boys and 24,947 girls . This indicates an increase of 513 boys (2percent) in term two compared to term 1 while for the girls it shows a decrease of 752 (2.93percent) . Enrolment in term II was comparable to term I attributed to lack of feeding programmes, pastoral migration especially in Tiaty, long distances to schools and ill health. There were 2.3 percent more boys in term two compared to girls. In Primary School there were 74,420 boys and 70,034 girls in term I, while in term II there were 75,289 boys and 70,640 girls. The enrollment in primary remained relatively the same for both boys and girls. Currently, school meals programme by National government, faith based organizations and other well-wishers may have contributed to the retention noted in term II. Overall, there are 3.2 percent more boys compared to girls. In Secondary school, in term I, there were 22,674 boys and 22,757 girls while in term II there were 22,168 boys and 22, 895 girls. The number of boys increased by 2.2percent in term II compared to term 1 while for the girls remained relatively the same. There are 1.6 per cent more boys compared to girls in the secondary schools. 4.1.2 Participation and Retention On average monthly attendance in early childhood development Center was 16,000 pupils in the five months per day this shows a decrease due to lack of School Feeding programmes. In Primary 50,000 pupils were in school in the five months per day. This shows an increase due to food support from well-wishers especially in Tiaty. While in Secondary 21,000 students were in school in the five months per day. This shows a decrease due to early pregnancies and boda boda business. Generally there were minimal dropouts in term two compared to term one 2019 and this was reflected in terms of sickness, transfers and effects of long distance to school from their homes. Page 20 of 30 4.1.3 School meals programme There are two types of school meals programme in the county namely:-Regular School Meals Programme supporting 115 primary schools in Tiaty Sub County and Home Grown School Meals Programme in 336 primary Schools in Baringo North, Baringo South, Mogotio and Baringo Central. In total the interventions supports 80,704 beneficiaries (41,444 boys and 39, 260 girls). 336 Primary schools that are under HGSMP have not received food for Term two. Inter Sectoral links where available Few schools have access to water pipeline connected to boreholes, dam (Kirandich, Chemususu, Kimao, Bartabwa). Some schools do roof catchment water harvesting, however, some have water storage facilities but do not have gutters and the tanks have not been installed. Most school get their water from directly fetching water seasonal rivers, water pans, boreholes. Sanitation is not adequate in most schools as there are no adequate hand washing facilities and toilets are not adequate. Girls in all primary schools in the County receive sanitary towels from the office of National government through the affirmative action fund which has a direct positive impact on girls attendance in schools. School performance is affected by availability and access to food at the household level. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1 Prognosis Assumptions According to FEWS NETUSGS preliminary forecast, the short rains season (October - December 2019) are likely to be average with timely onset as at October. The county meteorological department indicates that there are likely to be above average rains in the county in the July and August season Based on the long term trends of prices (NDMA data), the staple food prices are expected to be stable and be on a downward trend but remain within the seasonal norms as maize harvests from seed maize are expected as from August while goat prices are likely to remain within the long term averages. Terms of trade are likely to remain low especially in the pastoral livelihood zone but remain within the seasonal normal precipitated by the changes in maize and goat prices as from August for the next three months. Based on analysis of the current forage condition and the expected rainfall, pasture and browse are likely to be available and last until the next season which starts in October. Based on trend analysis and the current availability of water, distances to water sources for livestock are expected to remain stable across the livelihood zones until the onset of the short rains in October. Distances and waiting time at the water source for domestic consumption are expected to remain normal for the next three months. 5.2 Food security Outlook (August-October) Pasture and browse conditions in the county are likely to be good following the anticipated July- August rainfall and as such the livestock body condition is expected to improve across all livelihoods. Improved livestock productivity in terms of availability of milk and meat at household Page 21 of 30 level is likely to be witnessed following anticipated minimal migrations. Water availability and accessibility is expected to improve across the livelihoods and households are likely to consume more than 15 litres per person per day. In terms of food accessibility, it is likely that food is likely to be physically available in the markets and that the prices for maize which is the staple food are anticipated to remain stable following the anticipated harvest as from August. Livestock prices may increase as a result of good body condition of the livestock and thus the purchasing power of households is expected to remain favourable through the three months under review. Food consumption patterns are likely to be improve as food will be readily available and accessible during this time and as such the nutrition status for the children under fives is likely to improve. No significant changes are expected in the livelihood coping strategies. No significant changes are expected in the mortality rates for the children under five years of age and the general population. The food security situation is likely to improve and as such some of the households that are currently classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are expected to move to NoneMinimal (IPC Phase 1) as from October 2019 5.3 Food security Outlook (November - January) Livestock body conditions and productivity are expected to remain above normal following the expected continued rains in the July- August rains that will sustain the good forage condition across the livelihoods. The average performance of the October-December rains is also likely to sutain the livestock productivity further leading to increased milk production making it available for consumption at the household level. Water resources are likely to be fully recharged and as such water is likely to be available and accessible to the households for domestic consumption. Staple food prices are anticipated to remain stable as livestock prices slightly improve as per the seasonal trends. Consequenty, terms of trade are expected to improve slightlyand remain favourable for the livestock farmers enabling households to have good household purchasing power and access to food until December. In January however, the prices are likely to come down as a result of oversupply in the market as households are likely to be selling their animals to meet other household needs such as school fees. The proportion of households having acceptable food consumption scores are expected to increase following the available household stocks and favourable terms of trade. No significant changes are expected in the coping strategies and mortality rates. Nutrition status is likely to improve following availability of milk and other food at household level. More households that are currently classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected to move to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as at December 2019. 5.0 CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS 6.1 Conclusion 6.1.1 Phase classification The Phase Classification in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zone is None Minimal (IPC Phase 1) while the agro pastoral livelihood zone is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The pastoral livelihood zone particularly in Tiaty, it is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 6.1.2 Summary of Findings The long rains were cumulatively near normal however, temporal distribution was poor and spatial distribution was poor. Crop production is projected to be near normal with harvests from seed Page 22 of 30 maize expected as from August. In the pastoral livelihood zone, food availability in the markets is short termly below normal however, this is expected to change following the anticipated harvests from the irrigated cropping livelihood zone. Currently, households in the mixed farming livelihood zones have maize stocks sufficient to last for the next three months. Terms of trade are average in the mixed farming, irrigated cropping and agropastoral livelihood zone but below normal in the pastoral livelihood zone thus households in this livelihood zone are having a challenge in financial accessibility despite the physical availability of food in the market. In areas of Loruk, in Baringo North however, both physical and financial access is a limiting factor as there are no market activities going on. Water availability, access and utilization is normal for the households in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones while consumption in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones is 10-15 litres per person per day a reduction from 15-20 litres per person per day. Livestock diseases reported in the county were endemic and thus are short-termly making households to be vulnerable by stressing the livelihoods. Food consumption patterns were good in the irrigated cropping, mixed farming and agropastoral livelihood zone as more than 80 percent of the households had acceptable food consumption scores. In the pastoral livelihood zone however, food consumption was borderline as more evidenced by the 35.3 percent who had borderline food consumption scores. Reduce coping strategy index indicated that households were employing stressed strategies and this is considered normal for time of the year. Nutrition status is still Serious in Baringo North and South based on weight for height z-scores while it is at Critical levels in Tiaty sub county in the pastoral livelihood zone. Utilization pillar is a challenge as evidenced by the low latrine coverage, poor sanitation practices and the low hygiene levels exhibited by the households. 6.1.3 Sub-county ranking Sub County Food security rank Main food security threat (if any) (Worst to Best) ( 1- Tiaty 1 - No pasture and browse - Inadequate water availability - Livestock diseases - Poor sanitation and hygiene practices Baringo North 2 - Livestock Migrations and Livestock deaths - Inadequate pasture and browse - Resource based conflicts - Erratic Rainfall Baringo South 3 - Water quality - Insecurity Mogotio 4 - Good rainfall performance - High crop production Baringo Central 5 - Good purchasing power - Livelihood diversified Page 23 of 30 Eldama Ravine 6 - Food availability, access and utilization - Good rainfall performance - Milk production is high 6.2 Interventions 6.2.1 Ongoing Interventions There is regular school meals programme (RSMP) and home grown school meals programme (HGSM) in the county which benefits 80,704pupils (41,444 boys and 39, 260 girls). Food aid in all livelihood ones by the Government of Kenya and Kenya Red Cross Society (GOKKRCS). A total of 4,660 household were reached with maize- 88,248 kilogrammes (kgs), Beans- 38,000 kilogrammes (38.0 metric tonnes) and Cooking Oil- 540liters. Non-food interventions Intervention Specific Location Cost No. of beneficiaries Implementa Implementation tion Time stakeholders Frame Male Female Micro nutrients All health 3,067,000 84,200 85,545 Routine MOH supported by supplementation (Vitamin facilities, selected UNICEF, WVK A, Zinc) ECD AfyaUzazi. community Health BCG(DHS). Units All health facilities. Management of Acute 100 health 231 52,600 54,892 Routine. BCG(DHS) Malnutrition (IMAM) facilities supported by, Surge at 8 health UNICEF and WVK. facilities in East Pokot. IYCN Interventions (EBF All health 1,000,000 52,600 54,892 BCG(DHS) and Timely Intro of facilities and supported by complementary Foods) community units AfyaUzazi. Iron Folate All health 500,000 30,944 Routine. BCG(DHS) Supplementation among facilities offering supported by WVK, Pregnant and Lactating ANC services UNICEF Women. Deworming All health 200,000 33,683 Routine. BCG(DHS) facilities ANC supported by WVK, UNICEF AfyaUzazi Integrated and sustainable All wards 20m 20000 households July Department of food production systems December Agriculture, 2019 Livestock and Fisheries, Water, WFP Page 24 of 30 Construction of grain store Kabartonjo 5M 1000 Households 20182020 Baringo County at Bartolimo Government- Provision of certified 18 wards 5000 Households 20192020 State department of avocado seedlings Irrigation and Government- NIB-Perkerra Control of FAW through All Wards 2M 20,000Households 20182020 Baringo County sensitization and supply of Government- demonstration Materials Department of (Traps, pheromones, and Agriculture chemical and spray) Plant Protection services department (PPSD) Agribusiness All wards 90 youth groups in WFP, Baringo Empowerment project 45M Agribusiness County Government Soil and water Barwessa 50 m 3000 2 yrs MOALFMOE management- RLACC Bartabwa wards Farm Ponds Development All wards 500m 10000 HH Continuous State Department of Irrigation, County Government Of Baringo Rehabilitation of Kiboi Barwessa 750M 800 5years MOALF irrigation scheme and construction of Kaptiony- Kiboi dam Distribution of 38,000 Kabarnet, 2 Million 8000 2018-2019 State department of coffee seedlings Kapropita, crops development, . Ewalelchapchap, Baringo county Sacho, Tenges, Government- Mogotio, Department of Koibatek, Agriculture Mochongoi Provision of Sahiwal bulls county-wise 1.0M 1,200HH Jul2019-Jul for upgrading purposes-10 2021 bulls Disease control County-wise 30M PPR-750,000 Mar,2019- MOALF, (vaccinations against FMD, FMD-100,000 Aug,2019 CGB CPP, Blanthrax, PPR 58,077 shoats RPLRP Provision of pasture seeds Baringo south, 2.M 200HH Mar,2019- MOALF, (1 Ton) Baringo north, Jul, 2019 BCG Tiaty, Baringo central, Mogotio Provision of fencing Baringo South 2M 200HH Mar,2019- MOALF, Material to PFS (6) Baringo Central Jul, 2019 BCG Page 25 of 30 Mogotio RPLRP Provision of incubators to Baringo South 5M 10,200HH Mar,2019- MOALF, groups and day old chicks Baringo Central Jul, 2019 BCG to groups Mogotio RPLRP WATER Water trucking Institutions 1.5 M 30 Institutions 1 -3 Months BCG, GDC, WV, BH rehabilitation Community Water 25M 3580HH BCG, NG, RCS, supplies 1 3 ACTED, Months ACTIONAID, GDC Water Boozer servicing and 3 Sub counties 1M County 1 3 BCG, NG, NDMA repair Months Capacity building on water County 1M 3 Sub counties 1 3 KRCS, WV, management Months ACTED, ACTIONAID, WFP, UNCEF Water supplies County 90M 2160 HH 1 6 BCG, NG, KRCS, Rehabilitation and Months WV, UNCEF, WFP, upgrading CIM, NDMA Rehabilitation of BHs County 72M 1670 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, UNCEF, WFP, CIM, NDMA Drilling and Equipping of County 33M 2620 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, KRCS, BHs WV, UNCEF, WFP, Capacity building on water County 4.5M 2130 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, KRCS, management and WV, UNCEF, WFP, Catchment protection CIM, NDMA Dairy Production Kaptara Primary 200,000 350 (195 Boys, 155 2019-2020 Board of Mango production Kaptara Primary 500,000 450 (195 Boys, 155 2019-2024 Board of Hay Production Loruk Primary 50,000 500 ( Boys 260, 240 2019-2022 Board of School girls) management Apiculture Chepnyorgin 30,000 290 (150 Boys, 140 2019-2025 Board of Primary girls) management Page 26 of 30 Remarks: Resources required, Available resources, Contribution of each stakeholder 6.2.2 Recommended Interventions Sub county Population Proposed Remarks Modality Percentage of ( Wards) people in need Tiaty 168,703 20-25 CFA Baringo North 118,797 10-15 CFA Baringo South 106,722 10-15 CFA Mogotio 60,962 5-10 CFA Baringo Central 98,918 0 CFA Eldama Ravine 149,594 0 CFA Non-food interventions Sub County Intervention No. of Proposed Implementers Required Available Time Ward beneficiaries Resources Resources Frame All Mass screening 80 sites BCG(DHS), AfyaUzazi, 3M 240,000 July-Oct KRCS, WVK Beyond 2019 zero clinics Catholic mission East Pokot, Integrated medical 40 hotspot BCG(DHS), AfyaUzazi, 5M 0.3M July-Oct Baringo outreaches sites KRCS, WVK 2019 North, Beyond zero clinics Marigat Catholic mission mogotio All Purchase and distribute BCG(DHS), AfyaUzazi, 1.48M 480,000 July-Oct water treatment drugs KRCS, WVK 2019 ALL Increase in provision of 8000HH -MOALF -Funds to -technical 1 year farm inputs to farmers buy seed personnel Jan. (seed, planting and top and to train Nov. dressing fertilizers fertilizers farmers 2017 -technical personnel to train farmers cost: 50 M ALL Water Harvesting for 10000HH Ministry of Agriculture Funds, Technical 2018- household food Livestock and Irrigation, Technical personnel 2022 security- Farm ponds personnel and equipping existing Cost:1bn Page 27 of 30 ones and irrigation Baringo County schemes Government, WFP, Development partners ALL Post Harvest 20,000HH MOALFI, Baringo Funds Technical One year technologies promotion County Government and cost: 10m staff stakeholders All Support youth 60 youth County Government of Funds 24m Technical July engagement in groups in Baringo Department of officers December Agribusiness project Agribusiness Agriculture, Livestock 2019 and Fisheries, WFP, ALL Control of FAW 25000 Baringo County 3Million Technical July- through sensitization Households Government-Department Officers December and supply of of Agriculture 2019 demonstration Materials and training Plant Protection services (Traps, pheromones, department(PPSD) and chemical and sprayers) FAO - Provision of pasture 1,500HH BCG(MOALF),Nat. 10M - Aug, BaringoNorth seeds Govt.(RPLRP) 2019- -Tiaty NDMA Dec, 2019 -Baringo - South Mogotio Mogotio, Disease Countywide BCG, National 8M 2M Aug, Marigat(Blue control(vaccinations government and 2019- tongue) against, RVF,CCPP Development partners Dec, 2019 All areas Disease surveillance (FMD) -Baringo Establishment of 41,500 HH MOALF 54.088 M - Aug North strategic livestock feed BCG 2019- -Tiaty reserves; 3 in Tiaty, 2 in NDMA(EU) Dec,2012 -Baringo - Baringo North 2 in Partners South Baringo south and 1 in Mogotio Mogotio All sub- Hay harvesting and 41,500HH BCG 60M - Aug county baling machinery RPLRP 2019- 1 per sub-county KCSAP Dec,2012 WATER SECTOR Community Rehabilitation 2640HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, 43M - 1- 3 Water Servicing of pumping UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, months Supplies in units ACTED, ACTION AID, Pastoral, ADS, Page 28 of 30 Community Roof Water harvesting 120 BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, 12M - 1- 3 Water structures 10,000ltrs Vulnerable UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, months Supplies in PVC tanks Institutions ACTED, ACTION AID, Pastoral, Communities. ADS, FINN CHURCH Agro- AID Community Stock piling of Fast- 1200HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, 7M 1- 5 Water Moving Spares 23 UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, months Supplies in community water ACTED, ACTION AID, Pastoral, supplies ADS Community Water Bowser 4 Sub BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, 5M 1- 5 Water servicing and repairs counties UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, months Supplies in including Motor ACTED, ACTION AID, Pastoral, vehicle tyres provision ADS Community Capacity building on Whole county BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, 10 M 1- 5 Water WASH Water UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, months Supplies in Management and ACTED, ACTION AID, Pastoral, Catchment protection ADS, CIM Across all Drilling and Equipping 2300HH BCG, NG, KRCS, WV, 90M 15M 1 - 5 yrs livelihoods in of 12 strategic BHs UNCEF, NDMA, WFP, most along migratory routes ACTED, ACTION AID, vulnerable and settlement areas ADS, CIM Wards Community Construction and 3800HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, 80 M 20M 1 5 yrs Water Rehabilitation of 10 UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, Supplies in potential water supplies WFP Pastoral, Page 29 of 30 Potential sites Construction of 4Small 12,000HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, 800M 30M 1 -5Yrs within the dams for domestic and UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, county to irrigation water use WFP serve the low lands Community Capacity building on 1600HH BCG, NG, RCS, WV, 20M - 1 - 5Yrs Water Wash Water UNCEF, NDMA, CIM, Supplies in managementResources WFP Pastoral, Mobilization Conflict Agro- resolution and Pastoral and management and Marginal Catchment protection County wide Roof water harvesting 52 schools Ministry of water, 6,760,000 1,300,000 2019- in schools (10, 450 Ministry of Education. 2020 pupils and NDMA , Rift valley students) water works development Authority County wide School meals 336 schools WFP, Ministry of 66,580,800 2019- programme in primary (80,704 Education 2020 schools pupils ) County wide School meals and 51,320 WFP, Ministry of 92,376,000 16,000,000 2019- nutrition programme in (25,621 boys, Education, County 2020 ECDE 25,699 girls) government, County educational and vocational training department Page 30 of 30",
            "Baringo_LRA_2024.pdf": "1.1 County Background - Page 1\n1.2 Methodology, Objective And Approach - Page 1\n2.0 Drivers Of Food And Nutrition Security In The County - Page 2\n2.1 Rainfall Performance - Page 2\n2.2 Insecurity/Conflict - Page 2\n2.3 Floods And Flash Floods - Page 2\n2.4 Other Shocks And Hazards 2.4.1 Fall Arm Worm ............................................................................................................ 3 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY............................ 3 - Page 3\n3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crop Production ........................................................................................................... 3 3.1.3 Livestock Production .................................................................................................... 5 3.2 Access.................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2.1 Markets - Prices - Functioning .................................................................................... 9 3.2.5 Food Consumption ..................................................................................................... 12 - Page 3\n3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and Mortality Patterns ............................................................................ 14 3.3.3 Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity.................................................................. 15 - Page 14\n3.4 Trends Of Key Food Security Indicators - Page 15\n3.5 Education - Page 16\n4.0 Food Security Prognosis - Page 17\n4.1 Prognosis Assumptions - Page 17\n4.2 Food Security Outlook For August \u2013 October 2024 - Page 18\n5.0 Conclusion And Interventions - Page 18\n5.1 Conclusion - Page 18\n5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food Interventions ...................................................................................................... 21 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................... 21 Page ii of 25 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county covers an Marginal Mixed approximate area of 11,015 square Farming kilometers (Km2) with a population 14% 13% Mixed Farming of 749,000 persons (2024 projections Housing and Population 29% 39% Irrigated Cropping census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided 5% Pastoral into seven (7) sub-Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Agro Pastoral Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Eldama Ravine. There are six main Figure 1: Population Proportion Per Livelihood Zone livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed, Mixed farming-Horticulture and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages, floods and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Methodology, Objective and Approach KFSSG normally conducts bi-annual food and nutrition security assessment in the 23 ASAL counties in Kenya. The 2024 long rains food and nutrition security assessment was conducted in July 2024 with main objective being to assess the impact of March to May 2024 rainfall performance, determine the impacts of other shocks and hazards in Baringo County and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The assessment adopted multi\u2013agency and multi\u2013sector approach. The assessment process used both qualitative and quantitative survey methods in data and information acquisition. Desktop review from various reports, Kenya Health Information System (KHIS), SMART Survey and checklists were used to gather secondary data while key informants, focus group discussion and observation were used to collect primary data. The process commenced with an initial County Steering Group (CSG) meeting held 9th July 2024, followed by a field transect drive across the county on 10th and 11th July 2024. The KFSSG and technical CSG members analyzed both quantitative and qualitative data collected from various sources. Based on the convergence of evidence, the food security and nutrition report for the county including possible recommendations and a 6-month food security prognosis was produced. The preliminary findings of the assessment were presented to the CSG on Thursday, 19th July 2024 at Chamastar Hotel, Kabarnet in Baringo County. Page 1 of 25 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The 2024 March-April-May rainfall season had timely onset occurring during the third dekad of March 2024. The amounts were characterized with storm water especially in the third dekad of April and first dekad of May 2024. Enhanced rainfall, above normal levels (126 \u2013 140 percent of the normal), was observed in several parts of the county. Localized areas in Baringo North, Baringo South, and Tiaty recorded normal rainfall (111 \u2013 125 percent of the normal) based on satellite imagery from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), as shown in Figure 2. Spatial distribution was even and frequency was good across the livelihood zones of the county. Cessation was earlier than normal which was experienced during the first dekad of May 2024 as opposed Figure 2: Rainfall Performance (percentage) to normally third dekad of May. 2.2 Insecurity/Conflict Banditry attacks and cattle rustling were experienced during the season in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wards in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. The conflicts have led to closure of schools, limited access to grazing fields, crop farms and even loss of lives and livelihoods. Subsequently, these events have negatively affected food security in hotspot areas. In response, Operation Maliza Uhalifu, a joint security operation involving the National Police Service and Kenya Defense Forces personnel has been ongoing in disturbed areas alongside community peace dialogues supported by the government and partners. 2.3 Floods and Flash Floods Heavy downpours were experienced, resulting in the overflow of rivers such as Molo, Perkera, Kerio, Wasekes, Olarabal, Nginyang, Emining, and Endao. Moreover, due to the sustained increase and rise in water levels from lake Baringo and 94, Baringo county has experienced serious flooding. Baringo County floods assessment report conducted in May 2024 revealed that 2,352 households were affected by the flooding situation. Approximately 1,955 households were completely displaced, with 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households, while 397 households partially affected. A total of Page 2 of 25 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected in one way of another by the recent flood occurrences, causing damage to school infrastructure. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Household productive assets had been submerged in Baringo South, especially areas of Saruni, Ntepes, Loldama, Lemargwenyi, Lkeper, Ldarpoi, Naregare, Maasai, Kailer, Eldume, Leswaa, Sitaan, Ilpunyaki, Rine, Meisori, Kabikoki, Salabani, Murda, Sororwo, Longewan, Torkole, Rugus, Nosukuro, Nguraa, Iti. Floods affected 2,250 of acres of maize, water melon, onions and tomatoes. The flooding destroyed six (6) foot bridges, four (4) culverts/slaps, 31 road networks and 12 drainage works. 2.4 Other Shocks and Hazards 2.4.1 Fall Arm Worm Fall army worm was reported in maize growing areas that affected approximately 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county. The spread of the fall army worn is attributed to the dry spell in the month of June 2024. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Acreage under rainfed and irrigated crops was near normal to above average. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average. Farmers have maize stock which are below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. Conserved pasture in form of hay in stores is also below the total storage capacity. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. 3.1.1 Crop Production The county is dependent on long rains season for rainfed crop production and even for irrigation. The main food crops grown in the county include maize, beans, millet, potatoes, cowpeas, and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (fruits and vegetables) and cash crops (coffee, cotton, macadamia, and pyrethrum). In the Agro-pastoral Zone, maize contributes 90 percent, beans contribute 85 percent, and finger millet contributes 60 percent to food crop production. In contrast, in the Irrigated Zone, tomatoes, watermelons, and seed maize each contribute 90 percent to income (Table 1). Table 1: Contribution of Crops to Income and Food Livelihood Zone Crop Income Food Agro-pastoral Maize 10 90 Beans 15 85 Finger millet 40 60 Cowpeas 40 60 Mixed Maize 40 60 Beans 40 60 Finger millet 30 70 Irrigated Maize 80 20 Tomatoes 90 10 Water melons 90 10 Seed maize 90 10 Page 3 of 25 Rain-fed Crop Production Acreage planted for Irish potatoes increased by 117 percent attributed to more investor supporting Irish potatoes production while area under maize, bean and sorghum remained relatively comparable to long term average. The early onset of the rains coupled with heavy downpour made ploughing difficult. The most affected sub-counties are Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Central, South and Tiaty. The projected yields for maize and beans are lower by 19.3 percent and 42.5 percent compared to the long-term average production during the short rains season respectively. The decrease is attributed to heavy downpour in mid-April which affected planted crops by nutrient leaching hence affecting crop growth in all parts of the county. In addition, fall army worm affected 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county, this was because of the dry spell. However, the expected yields for irish potatoes and sorghum is projected to be higher by 98.2 percent and 25.7 percent respectively (Table 2). Table 2: Rain-fed Crop Production Crop Area planted Long Term 2024 Long rains Long Term Average (5 during 2024 Average (5 year) season year) production during Long rains area planted during production the Short rains season season (Ha) the Short rains season (90 kg bags) (90 kg bags) (Ha) Projected Maize 40,465 39,618 801,540 992,950 Beans 20,894 20,244 93,068 161,952 Sorghum 1,690 1,685 25,425 20,220 Irish Potatoes 3,900 1,800 354,820 179,000 Irrigated Crop Production The area planted for irrigated crops increased for various crops, for instance, maize, tomatoes, water melon and seed maize increased by 650, 217, 168 and 3.4 percent respectively. The increase in acreage planted is attributed to sufficient water for irrigation coupled with expansion of irrigation schemes in Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The yields are expected to increase by 591, 217, 168 and 16.4 percent for maize, tomatoes, water melon and seed maize respectively (Table 3). About 80-90 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was utilized due to high water volumes in the rivers. Men are the income earners from the crops, while women and youth managed the crops. Table 3:Irrigated Crop Production Crop Area planted Long Term 2024 Long rains Long Term Average during the 2024 Average (3 years) season production (3 years) production Long rains season area planted during (90 kg bags/MT) during Long rains (ha) Long rains season Projected/actual season (ha) (90 kg bags/MT) Maize 1300 173 29,900 4,325 Tomatoes 260 82 6,500 2,050 Water melons 120 45 3,600 1,350 Seed Maize 2,850 2,755 128,250 110,200 3.1.2 Cereals Stock The maize stocks held by all actor in the county are currently 36 percent lower than the long-term average. Farmers\u2019 maize stock are 49 percent below the long-term average. The bulk of the stock is Page 4 of 25 held in Eldama Ravine sub-county at 60 percent, where few farmers did not dispose of their stock despite high prices. The National Cereal and Produce Board purchased 3,142 bags of 50kg each from farmers (Table 4). Local traders and millers have maize stocks higher than the long-term average by by 27 and 139 percent respectively. The increase is attributed to most households are purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (posho millers) and also the looming crop failure in agro pastoral and decrease in cereal prices which is good for millers and traders to stock. Traders and millers have more stocks in the pastoral, agro-pastoral, and irrigated livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. The available maize stocks in the county is expected to last for 3 months, as opposed to the normal 4 \u2013 5 months. Table 4: Quantities of Cereal Stocks Held Currently (90-kg bags) Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Green grams Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Households 140,431 276,686 230 468 860 620 Traders 44,338 34,928 1290 1,056 95 324 1830 150 Millers 19,997 8,382 - - - - - Food Aid/NCPB 3142 @ 14,400 720 3 - - 650 - 50kg Totals 204,766 319,996 2,010 1,059 6,945 794 1,004 770 3.1.3 Livestock Production The main livestock species reared in the county are cattle, goats, sheep and donkeys. Livestock contribute more cash income to households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones at 88 and 50 percent respectively and approximately 20 \u2013 25 percent contribution to food across all the livelihood zones (Table 5). Table 5: Livestock contribution to food and income per livelihood zone Livelihood Zone Food (Percent) Income (Percent) Mixed farming 25 23 Irrigated Cropping 25 8 Agro-Pastoral 20 50 Pastoral 21 88 The above average performance of the last two consecutive seasons (2023 short rains and 2024 long rains) had resulted to significant improvement in forage condition and water recharge across the livelihood zones. Subsequently, livestock trekking distances drastically reduced leading to improved livestock productivity. Pasture and Browse Situation The current condition for forage condition is good across all the zones which is attributed to enhanced rainfall that characterized by even and good distribution both in space and time. However, localized pockets in pastoral zones of Kwokototo and Churo have limited access to pasture due to an invasive weed such as santa maria fever few (Parthenium Hysterophorus) and Prosopis Juliflora in Ilchamus and parts of Mukutani wards. Pasture that was established last year is being harvested in Agro- Pastoral and Mixed Farming areas though the yields are low. Those which were established this year is actively growing and at piping stage. The available pasture and browse are expected to last 3 months and 6 months in all the zones but depending on the performance of June \u2013 July \u2013 August 2024 off season rains. Page 5 of 25 Table 6: Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture Browse Livelihood Condition How long to last Factors Condition How long to last Factors zone (Months) Limiting (Months) Limiting access access Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral Good Good 3 3 Insecurity Good Good 3 3 Insecurity Agro- Good Good 6 6 None Good Good 6 6 None pastoral Mixed Good Good to 3 3 none Good Good 3 3 None farming fair Irrigated Good Good to 3 3 none Good Good 3 3 None Cropping fair Pasture Conservation The county has a total of 93 hay stores with Eldama Ravine, Baringo North and Baringo South having 30, 25 and 20 hay stores respectively. Notably, Tiaty sub-county, classified under the Pastoral livelihood zone, has no hay store. Currently, there are 1,684,000 bales of hay stored across these 93 hay stores, against a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales. Each hay bales is estimated to weight approximately 15 kilograms and is priced between Ksh 200 and Ksh 300 per bale (Table 7). Table 7: Baled Hay Sub-county No. of Storage No. of Bales Average Average Comments \u2013 E.g. percentage Hay Capacity currently Weight price per held by farmers and other Stores being held per bale bale Institutions (in Kgs) (Ksh) Baringo South 20 300,000 100,000 15 300 20% are held by KVDA 80% Held by farmers Baringo Central 10 20,000 4,000 15 300 30 % by farmers and 70% by Association. Eldama Ravine 30 1,800,000 1,200,000 15 200 80% by farmers 20% FCS Tiaty 0 0 0 0 0 Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo North 25 280,000 130,000 15 300 100% by farmers from community stores Mogotio 8 570,000 250,000 15 200 75%By farmer groups 25% by individuals Livestock Productivity Livestock Body Condition The body condition of all livestock species currently ranges from good to fair (BCS 4 and BCS 3) across the livelihood zones, while camels are observed to have fair body condition in all livelihood zone. Goats generally have good body condition except in Pastoral livelihood zone, where their body condition is fair. The good to fair livestock body condition is attributed to gradual improvement in forage condition, water availability, reduced trekking distance and decline of disease occurrences. However, there are some pockets in Pastoral livelihood zones (Tiaty East and Barwessa) with limited access to grazing fields due to insecurity has resulted in fair livestock body condition. The body Page 6 of 25 condition is expected to improve further following the ongoing off-season rains. The good body condition is likely to enhance household purchasing power, thus favourable terms of trade. Table 8: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood zone Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Curren Normal Current Normal Curren Normal Curren Normal t t t Mixed farming BCS 4 BCS3 BCS3 BCS3 BCS4 BCS4 NA N/A Irrigated Cropping BCS4 BCS4 BCS3 BCS3 BCS4 BCS4 NA NA Agro-Pastoral BCS3 BCS4 BCS3 BCS3 BCS4 BCS4 N/A N/A Pastoral BCS3 BCS4 BCS3 BCS3 BCS3 BCS4 BCS 5 BCS 5 Note: BCS \u2013 Livestock Body Condition Score BCS 1 \u2013 Very Poor (Emaciated) BCS 2 \u2013 Poor BCS 3 \u2013 Fair BCS 4 \u2013 Good BCS 5- Very Good Tropical Livestock Units (Average Number of Livestock) There was a reduction in TLUs among both the poor and medium-income household as a result of increased sales of livestock to pay for school fees and to meet other necessities at household level. Over the last 10 years, the TLUs across all the livelihood zones have decreased by half. The main factor leading to this decline include land sub-division, preceding drought and inadequate feed for livestock, primarily due to climate variability over the years. Table 9: Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) by Household Income Groups Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Agro-Pastoral 3 6 8 12 Pastoral 4 8 10 15 Irrigated Cropping 3 3.2 4.2 5 Mixed farming 4 4 6 6 Birth Rate Birth rates are high for all livestock species due to the good performance of two consecutive rainfall seasons that supported improved rangeland resources both in quality and quantity thus driving high livestock productivity. Milk Production The production per cow per day is higher than the normal, mainly because of the good rains experienced from March to May, which improved feed availability across all livelihoods. Milk production was ranging between 4 and 7 liters per household per day compared to long-term average of 3 to 5 litres per household per day. In Pastoral livelihood, milk produced was 2 litres against a normal average of 1 litres. The production is expected to stabilize following the ongoing off-season rains, which will rejuvenate forage condition. Table 10: Milk Production, Consumption and Prices Livelihood zone Milk Production Milk consumption (Litres) Prices (Ksh)/Litre (Litres)/Household per Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Agro-pastoral 5 - 6 3 - 4 1 2 45 50 Mixed farming 5 - 7 4 - 5 1 1.5 50 60 Pastoral 2 1 1.5 1 60 70 Irrigated cropping 4-6 5 2 2 60 80 Page 7 of 25 Migration The livestock migration patterns were normal during the review period. The migrations were due to depletion of pasture, water sources and insecurity tensions especially in Pastoral areas. Livestock animals are being driven from Tirioko, Toturkuna, Kokwototo to areas around Lake Baringo, Ruko conservancy and Laikipia County. The migrations were triggered by search of pastures by Pastoral communities which are currently in poor condition or invaded by Santa maria fever weed. Outward migration towards the Kerio valley, West Pokot, and Turkana and around Lake Baringo is expected to pick up in the next 3 months if the June\u2013July\u2013August offseason failed. Mortalities No unusual livestock mortalities were reported during the period under review, with normal mortalities reported by communities in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as a result of (Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia) CCPP in goats and Blue Tongue in Sheep. There were also incidences of livestock abortions in Mukutani and parts of Tiaty East suspected to be caused by vector agents. Water for Livestock The current sources of water for livestock include lakes, boreholes, water pans and rivers. The return trekking distances from grazing area to watering points are currently 1-2 km for Mixed farming and 2-4 km for Pastoral and Agro-pastoral. This distance is lower than normal due to good rains received from months of March to May 2024, which significantly recharged water sources. Open surface water sources are projected to last for 3-4 months. Factors limiting access to water are wild life, especially in areas around lake Baringo, insecurity in Pastoral zones and the salinity of some boreholes. Table 11: Water Availability and Access Livelihood Sources Return average Expected duration to last zone distances (km) (months) for each source Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Streams, Rivers, springs, Streams, Rivers, 1-2 1-3 Continuous Continuous farming piped water, boreholes springs, piped water, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, shallow wells Rivers, shallow 1-2 1-3 Continuous Continuous cropping and springs wells and springs. Agro- water pans, Boreholes, Streams, water pans, 2-4 3-5 3 3 pastoral rivers Boreholes Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans, Water-pans, Bore- 2-4 3-6 3 3 holes Watering Frequency Currently, all livestock species are watered daily due to the availability of water in various sources attributed to enhanced performance of the last two consecutive rainfall seasons. These seasons supported the full recharge of water sources across all livelihood zones (Table 12). Table 12: Watering Frequency (No. of Days per Week) Livelihood zone Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Daily Daily N/A N/A Daily Daily Daily Daily Irrigated cropping Daily Daily N/A N/A Daily Daily Daily Daily Page 8 of 25 Agro-pastoral Daily 2 days N/A N/A Daily Daily Daily Daily Pastoral Daily 2 days Once Once Daily Daily Daily Daily 3.1.4 Impact on Availability The enhanced rainfall performance supported improved rangeland resources which in turn led to good livestock body condition. This improvement has led to increased milk production, higher-than- average livestock prices and decline in food commodities prices, thereby driving favourable terms of trade for households. 3.2 Access Most of the markets in the county were operational, except for a few feeder markets in Tiaty constituency that were affected by insecurity. Maize prices dwindled and currently lower than the long-term average. Livestock prices for all species have increased due to good body condition. The terms of trade were favourable, as households bought more kilograms of cereals from the income obtained by selling one goat. 3.2.1 Markets - Prices - Functioning Market Operations The Main livestock markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk, Kinyach, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei, Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Majimoto, Emining, Iloti, Kapchorua, Kapcholoi. Nginyang, kolowa, and Kalabata. Supply of livestock to these markets was mainly from local households within the county. For farm produce, Sirwa and Mogotio are the main market, with 40-60 percent of food items sourced locally. The majority of the markets are operational and well provisioned with both livestock and crop produce. Market Prices Maize price The prices for dry white maize have been declining since February 2024, attributed to 2023 short rains maize harvests in areas of Western Kenya and the South Rift. In addition, cross-border imports of maize by Kenyan traders Average (2019-2023) 2023 2024 from Tanzania, Zambia, Uganda and South Africa have 120 also led to reduction in selling prices of maize in Kenya. The 100 ) current average retail price is g k 80 Ksh 57 per kilogram of dry / . white maize. The current retail h s K 60 average price is 17 and 48 ( e percent lower than the 2019 \u2013 c 40 i 2023 and the 2023 averages r P 20 respectively at the same period of the year (Figure 3). The 0 maize prices are most likely to Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec remain below the long-term Figure 3: Maize Price Trend average for the next 2-3 months, following the above average March to May 2024 rainfall season that supported enhanced crop production. Page 9 of 25 Goat price The average retail price for a medium size goat as at June 2024 stood at Ksh 4,130 which was 59 percent above the average for the same period from 2019 to 2023 (Figure 4). These above-average goat\u2019s prices are attributed to good body Average (2019-2023) 2023 2024 condition. Data from 4500 NDMA sentinel sites indicates that the 4000 highest prices were 3500 reported in Irrigated 3000 cropping livelihood ) . h zone at Ksh 5,167, s 2500 K while lowest were ( e 2000 observed in the Pastoral c i r 1500 livelihood zone at Ksh P 3,883. The lowest 1000 prices in the Pastoral 500 livelihood zone were 0 attributed to the Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec frequent insecurity incidents, which Figure 4: Average Goat Price Trends hindered access to major livestock markets. With the ongoing off-season rains from July to August 2024, rangeland conditions are expected to further improve, potentially leading to higher than normal goat selling prices. 3.2.2 Terms of Trade The goat to maize ratio among rural households have maintained an upward trend since the beginning of the year. This indicates favourable terms of trade for Pastoral households due to enhanced purchasing power. The Average (2019-2023) 2023 2024 ascending trend has been r o 80 linked to increasing goat f prices and declining maize d e g 70 prices across the livelihood n a 60 zone. Currently, rural h c x households on average, E 50 et a were able to buy 72 z iao G 40 kilograms of maize from M a f 30 income obtained by selling o s m 20 one medium sized goat. a The current goat to maize r 10 g ratio is 76 percent higher o liK 0 than the 2019 to 2023 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec average and 177 percent above the 2023 average at Figure 5: Household Terms of Trade the period of the year Page 10 of 25 (Figure 5). The terms of trade is projected to sustain above average trend through end of December 2024. 3.2.3 Income Sources The main income varied across the livelihood zones, with livestock production being the main income sources for households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones. In Pastoral livelihood zone, livestock production immensely contributes 88 percent to income and 50 percent in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Cash crop production is the main income sources (59 percent) in irrigated Cropping while in Mixed farming cash crop production and casual waged labour is relied by 30 percent and 20 percent of the households for income respectively. 3.2.4 Water access and availability (including cost + consumption) Major Water Sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Most of these water sources are concentrated in Mixed farming livelihood zones, where the potential is higher compared to Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihoods, which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Water is more accessible in Mixed farming and Irrigated Farming zones than in Pastoral livelihood zones. Open water sources like rivers, water pans, springs, streams across the county in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood areas were recharged to between 95-100 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 70-80 percent normally. The available water in these zones is likely to last for five to six months as compared to the normal three to four months. In irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones, rivers were recharged up to 100 percent of their normal capacity. The available water is expected to last for five to six months. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans across all livelihood zones is stable as a result of the enhanced rainfall performance. Presently, 90 - 95 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones with some few which are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs. For example Kamurio borehole, Kongor borehole, Kamar Borehole, Chebinyiny borehole, Kirim borehole, Kipkandule borehole and Barkipii borehole are among those affected. Additionally, Chemarikitich, Chepkitip, Katungura, Sirya Water Pans were reported to have been silted. In isolated cases, there were exceptional water quality challenges along eastern and the western valleys of Baringo county for underground water sources due to high fluoride levels. Distance to Water Sources The average distances to domestic water sources were below normal at 3 to 4.5 km in pastoral and 3 to 3.5 km in Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 5 \u2013 6 km. The distances were below normal at (0 - 1.5Km) in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming livelihood zones. Waiting Time at the Source The waiting time at the common water source is stable and projected to reduce drastically in pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as compared to the LTA if the current off-season rainfall will continue. In Mixed farming livelihood zone, the waiting time is between 1 \u2013 2.5 minutes which is below normal. In pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas it was between 2.5 and 3.5 minutes, also below normal, which is attributed to the abundant water availability in most water sources. It was lowest in irrigated zone at 0-2 minutes. Cost of Water and Water Consumption Page 11 of 25 Water from open water source was free, while the cost of water from developed sources remained stable at Ksh 3 to 5 across all livelihood zones. Water vending reduced with few vendors selling water on average at Ksh 20 per 20 liters jerrican. Water consumption per person per day is above normal at 25-30 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone and 20 to 25 litres in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral zone compared to normal. Water quality surveillance is highly recommended in key hot spots areas of Irrigated, Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones in Chepkalacha, Sirata, Esageri, Kaptara, Amaya, Sintaan. Loboi, Kamar for water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria as a result of water quality challenges. Table 13: Households Trekking Distance, Waiting Time and Water Consumption Livelihood Zone Return Distance to Cost of Water at Average Water Waiting Time at Water Water for Domestic Source (Ksh. Per 20 Consumption Source (M inutes) Use ( Km) litr es) (Litres/person/day) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 0 \u2013 1.5 1.5 - 3 3 \u2013 5 3 \u2013 5 1 \u2013 2.5 3 - 5 25 - 30 15 - 20 Irrigated cropping 0 \u2013 1.5 0.5 \u2013 1.5 3 \u2013 5 3 \u2013 5 0 - 2 1 - 2 25 - 30 15 - 20 Agro-pastoral 3 \u2013 3.5 3 - 4 3 \u2013 5 3 \u2013 5 2.5 3 - 5 20 - 25 12 - 15 Pastoral 3 \u2013 4.5 4 \u2013 5.5 3 \u2013 5 3 \u2013 5 3.5 3 - 5 20 - 25 12 - 15 3.2.5 Food Consumption Food Consumption Food consumption score is a proxy indicator for food security, that captures household diet and consumption frequency over a 52.0% seven-day period. Food consumption patterns varied 78.5% across the livelihood zones. The 86.7% 88.0% SMART Survey data revealed that the proportion of households that 18.0% had poor food consumption significantly reduced in Tiaty to 7.8 percent from 31 percent 13.7% 31.0% reported in last year SMART 11.4% 8.0% Survey. The shift is attributed to 7.8% 2.0% 4.0% milk availability and improved 2024 2023 2024 2023 household purchasing power. Poor FCS means households were Baringo North/South Tiaty not consuming staples and vegetables daily and never or very Poor Borderline Acceptable seldom are consuming protein rich food such as meat and dairy. Figure 6: FCS Currently, 78.5 \u2013 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns and 11 \u2013 13.7 percent had borderline food consumption (Figure 6). Acceptable food consumption implies that household are consuming staples and vegetables daily, frequently accompanied by oil and pulses, and occasionally meat, fish and dairy. Page 12 of 25 Milk Consumption The current average milk consumption per household is lower than normal in some livelihood zones because farmers prefers to sell to get cash for supporting other basic requirements. Consumption was 1 litre per household in Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming against 1.5 \u2013 2 litres normally. In Pastoral livelihood zones, consumption averaged 1.5 litres, which is higher than the normal 1 litre. Milk prices are currently lower than the long-term averages because of increased supply of milk in all the zones. Milk prices are currently ranging between Ksh 45 \u2013 60 per litre compared to the normal range of Ksh 50 - 80. Most of the milk originates from Mixed farming zones of Mogotio and Eldama Ravine (Table 10). 3.2.6 Coping Strategy 20 17.6 The reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI) is an indicator used to compare 15 the hardship faced by households due to a shortage of food. The index measures I S 10.8 C the frequency and severity of food r 10 7.73 n consumption behaviors that households a 6.15 e M had to engage in response to food 5 shortage over the 7 days preceding the survey (VAM \u2013 WFP). SMART Survey 0 data collected in July 2024 showed that Tiaty Baringo North & South the food related coping mean index 2023 2024 declined to 7.7 in Tiaty from 17.6 and to 6.2 from 10.8 in Baringo North and Figure 7: Mean rCSI South sub-counties (Figure 7). Sentinel site data from NDMA revealed that about 65.2 percent of the households applied stress consumption coping strategies to overcome hardships faced due to shortage of food. Those that used crisis and above strategies were 17 percent and only 17.8 percent of the households reported not engaging in any food related coping strategies. Page 13 of 25 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and Mortality Patterns During the 2024 long rains season, no unusual diseases outbreak was reported across the county. However, common endemic illnesses that were reported for under five years and adult population include Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI), malaria and diarrhoea across all livelihood zones. Diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level, which was attributed by most households consuming untreated water. The URTI is lower in all age cohort in 2024 compared to previous year. Morbidity Under five Morbidity >5 YRS 160000 300000 140000 250000 120000 200000 100000 150000 80000 60000 100000 40000 50000 20000 0 0 2024 2023 2022 2021 2024 2023 2022 2021 Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI) DISEASE Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI) Diarrhoea DISEASE Diarrhoea DISEASE Malaria Malaria Figure 8: Morbidity Reported Cases 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation coverage for children aged 6 \u2013 59 months reduced to 82 percent in 2024, compared 87 percent during the same period in 2023. The reduction is due to difficulties in accessing children in hard to reach areas because of insecurity. Also, the scaling down of outreach programs and displacement of households by floods hampered access to routine health services. Page 14 of 25 3.3.3 Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity According to SMART survey conducted in July 2024 for Tiaty West and Tiaty East sub-counties, the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent 25.0 same period in 2023. The f o reduction in k 20.0 s i r GAM rates in t% Tiaty could a n n 15.0 be attributed e ri n do to l i hi t o 10.0 intervention c fi r t ou put in place n on l a 5.0 by Baringo i tM r o County p 0.0 o Government r Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec P with support LTA upper Limit 2024 lower limit from partners. Figure 9: Proportion of children U5 at Risk of Malnutrition However, GAM rates still remained high, indicating a Critical phase and Poor phase in Baringo North and Baringo South respectively. NDMA data for June 2024 indicated that approximately 20.3 percent of the children aged below five year are at risk of malnutrition based on Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) measurements. The current proportion of children at risk of malnutrition is 17 percent higher than long term average for the same time of year (Figure 9). 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene The proportion of households accessing drinking water from improved sources stands at 35.3 percent for households in Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties, which is a decline compared to 51.6 percent recorded during the same period in 2023. About 22.1 percent of the households in Tiaty access drinking water from safe/improved sources, a decrease from 31.4 percent in 2023. Majority of households reported not treating drinking water, with 76.9 percent in Baringo North and South and 98.2 percent in Tiaty. Latrine coverage was 64 percent in Baringo North and South while it was only 8.7 percent in Tiaty (SMART Survey, 2024). 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 14: Food Security Trends Indicator Short Rains Assessment, February Long Rains Assessment, Feb 2024 2024 Proportion of maize stocks held by 88 64 households (agro-pastoral) Livestock body condition Good Good - Fair Average Return trekking distance 0.5 - 4 0 \u2013 4.3 (kilometres) Water consumption (litres per person 12 - 25 20 - 30 per day) Price of maize (per kg) 70 57 Distance to grazing 0.5 - 4 1 - 4 Terms of trade (pastoral zone) 57 72 Page 15 of 25 Indicator Short Rains Assessment, February Long Rains Assessment, Feb 2024 2024 Coping strategy index Food consumption score 3.5 Education Baringo county has 845 public ECDE centres with an enrolment of 42,832 children (22,322 boys and 20,504 girls), private ECDE centres are 107 with an enrolment of 8,557 (4,256 boys and 4,302 girls). There are 745 public primary schools with enrolment of 160,988 (82,496 boys and 78,292 girls) while private primary schools are 102 with an enrolment of 17,294 (8,605 boys and 8,689 girls). Public secondary schools are 189 with an enrolment of 56,838 (28,764 boys and 28,074 girls), 5 private secondary schools having 1,073 learners (538 boys and 535 girls), public junior secondary school are 536 with an enrolment of 29,765 (boys 15,320, girls 14,437) and private junior secondary schools are 39 with an enrolment of 2,030 (boys 1,036, girls 994). The total number of learners in our basic learning institutions are 217,278 learners (boys 111,931, girls 105,347). The schools are distributed as follows: Table 15: Schools/Institutions per Sub-county Sub-county ECDE ECDE Primary Primary Secondary Secondary JSS JSS Centres centres Schools Schools Schools Schools public private public private public private public private Tiaty East 106 2 62 2 8 0 31 1 Tiaty West 77 3 80 3 8 1 40 2 Baringo South 122 22 121 22 30 0 87 10 Baringo North 155 11 155 12 33 1 138 0 Mogotio 120 14 105 14 28 0 72 7 Baringo Central 119 18 128 18 39 3 78 8 Eldama Ravine 146 37 93 31 46 0 90 11 TOTAL 845 107 744 102 192 5 536 39 3.5.1 Enrolment There was an increment in population of 409 children in ECDE centers, 1,161 pupils in primary schools, 416 in JSS and 10 students in secondary schools. This was because of introduction and enhancement of school meals program in primary schools and ECDE centers. In secondary school, the increment is because of the 100 percent transition and the availability of bursaries. Cases of school dropouts were reported in the county. In ECDE centers, a total of 26 children (14 boys and 12 girls) dropped out due to nomadism/distance from school. In primary schools, a total of 58 student (32 boys and 26 girls) dropped out for various reasons; for boys, it was due to psychological trauma, child labour, insecurity/violence, nomadism and chronic illness; for girls, it was due to teenage pregnancies, child labour, nomadism, insecurity/violence, psychological trauma and illness. In secondary schools, the number of dropouts is 72 students (42 boys and 30 girls). The reason for dropout for boys is lack of fees, indulgence into boda boda business, insecurity, child labour, and truancy. For girls, the reasons were lack of fees, insecurity, teenage pregnancies, early marriages and insecurity. Page 16 of 25 3.5.2 Effects of 2024 long rains (FLOODING) in schools The rains affected access to educational institution across the county. Although some institution were not flooded, they were marooned by flood waters, rendering them inaccessible. For instance, at Kiserian school, the learners needed a boat and a foot bridge to access the school. In Sandai and Loboi, learners needed foot bridges for them to cross over the swollen lake Bogoria to reach their respective schools. In other cases, heavy rainfall resulted in rock falls and landslides that blocked access to schools, as was experienced in Eitui, Kaplel, Tabagon in Baringo Central and Sangarau in Baringo South and Kipng\u2019orom in Mogotio. None of the schools was hosting any IDP camps during the season under review. 3.5.3 School Feeding In-kind meals were provided in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North, Mogotio and Baringo South sub-counties targeting 146,574 learners. The county has a cash transfer or HGSMP for Baringo Central targeting 29 schools, with a combined 530 learners (boys-250, girls-.300). Koibatek and Baringo Central sub-counties benefited from none of these programs, implying that about 57,594 learners were not having access to feeding programs. A number of public ECDE pupils have a snack in the form of enriched porridge supported by the parents, while the county government has rolled out a pilot ECDE Meals programme covering over 6,000 children in 148 selected centres across the county. This will start in a later date when funds will be availed by the county government. Measures put in place for handling and storage of food include; all the cooks are required to have medical certificates, clean water is used for food preparation, presence of food stores which have been fumigated and stacks for food storage, and lastly cooks wear proper dressing (aprons and headgears). Table 16: School Feeding Program Under SMP Without SMP School Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Pre school 16674 18504 35178 5106 4116 10022 Primary 47084 43246 90330 20855 20599 41454 JSS 10505 10561 21066 3097 3021 6118 146,574 57,594 3.5.4 Inter Sectoral links where available There were migrations and displacement of households in Tiaty, Baringo South and Baringo North because of insecurity, thus affecting school attendance. During this period, absenteeism tends to decrease in Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming zones due to improved water availability, though school-going children are asked by their parents to assist in the farms. In Mixed farming, not much change is expected. During the prolonged closure of schools\u2019 cases of dropouts were high due to pregnancies and boys engaging in boda boda business. Some pupils/students became victims of retrogressive practices such as early and forced marriages, early pregnancies and engagement in \u2018child labour-like\u2019 activities. In some cases, boys of school going age were involved in stock theft raids contributing to insecurity. 4.0 Food Security Prognosis 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions The county director of meteorology indicated that several parts of the county will receive off season rains through end of September 2024. \u2022 Rangeland resources are projected to improve further across the livelihood zones and likely to last until the onset of the 2024 short rains seasons expected in October 2024. Page 17 of 25 \u2022 Livestock body condition is anticipated to be good through end of the year hence likely to sustain above average selling prices in the markets. \u2022 The expected 2024 long rains harvest is likely to support gradual decline in prices of food commodities in the markets. \u2022 Water sources will likely recharge, potentially reducing the normal trekking distances for both households and livestock to water points. 4.2 Food Security Outlook for August \u2013 October 2024 Food consumption patterns are likely be stabilize in the next three months across the livelihood zones. There is a likelihood of reduction in the proportion of household engaged in destructive coping strategies. The nutrition status for children under five is projected to either remain stable or decrease, as milk production is anticipated to increase due to ongoing kidding and calving. 4.3 Food Security Outlook for November 2023 \u2013 January 2024 The expected 2024 short rains season is likely to rejuvenate the rangeland resources, subsequently triggering positive change in most of the food security outcome indicators. Food consumption patterns will likely improve further owing to projected crop harvests and milk availability. Improvements in livestock health and body conditions will result in seasonal increase in livestock prices hence further boosting household income. Improved livestock productivity will likely result in improved nutritional status for children under five. The enhanced situation is expected to drive improvement in food consumption, reduction in negative coping mechanism thus likelihood of improved nutritional status of children under five and other family members. 5.0 Conclusion and Interventions 5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall indicative phase classification for the county is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.1.2 Summary of Findings The county received above average rainfall of about 126 \u2013 140 percent of normal. Recurring incidences of cattle rustling and bandit attacks were experienced in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wars in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. Around 2,352 households were affected by the flooding with approximately 1,955 households completely displaced, 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households. A total of 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Around 42 percent of the planted land has been affected by Fall army worm. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average by 36 percent. Farmers have maize stock which are 49 percent below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. A total 1,684,000 bales of hay are currently being held in the 93 hay stores against a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales for the 93 stores. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. According to July 2024 SMART Survey, proportion of 7.8 percent of households had poor food consumption in Tiaty and 78.5 \u2013 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns and 11 \u2013 13.7 percent had borderline food consumption. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July Page 18 of 25 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent same period in 2023. 5.1.3 Sub-County Ranking Table 17: Sub-county Ranking Sub-county Rank Main food security threat/Contributing factors Hotspot wards (Worst to best) Tiaty East 1 \u2022 Poor pastures \u2022 Livestock diseases \u2022 Tirioko \u2022 Malnutrition \u2022 Livestock migration \u2022 Ribkwo \u2022 Insecurity \u2022 Disruption of Markets \u2022 Floods \u2022 Poor rainfall performance Tiaty West 2 \u2022 Insecurity \u2022 Livestock migration \u2022 Silale \u2022 Malnutrition \u2022 Poor rainfall performance \u2022 Tangulbei Korossi \u2022 Disruption of Markets Baringo North 3 \u2022 Livestock diseases \u2022 Disruption of Markets \u2022 Saimo Soi \u2022 Insecurity \u2022 Crop pests and diseases \u2022 Malnutrition Baringo South 4 \u2022 Floods \u2022 Livestock diseases \u2022 Mukutani \u2022 Insecurity \u2022 Livestock migration \u2022 Malnutrition Mogotio 5 \u2022 Poor rainfall performance in some \u2022 Livestock diseases \u2022 Emining parts of Kamar \u2022 Crop pests and diseases \u2022 Malnutrition Baringo Central 6 \u2022 Good rainfall performance \u2022 Crop pests and diseases Eldama Ravine 7 \u2022 Good rainfall performance \u2022 \u2022 Crop pests and diseases 5.2 Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions 5.2.2 Non-food interventions Sub-county Ward Intervention No. of Implementer Impacts in Cost Time benefic s terms of food (Ksh.) Frame iaries security Agriculture All sub- Saimo Soi, Resilient building 9,725 County Restoration and 58.4 M June \u2013 counties Bartabwa program to Government rehabilitation of Dec Sacho, , households of Baringo, livelihoods 2024 Churo/Amaya, ELRP destroyed by DL Mochongoi, Kolowa, Ilchamus and Kisanana Baringo All wards Affruitation Program 3,000 GOk Increased area 3.2 M 2024 Central under fruits cover for environmental conservation and food security Page 19 of 25 All sub- Marigat, ogotio, Promotion of farmer 25 County Improve access to 10 M 2023 - counties Kabarnet, service centres Government inputs by farmers 2024 Kabartonjo, and WFP and promote Eldama Ravine entrepreneurship All sub- All wards Nutrition Sensitive 25,000 WFP, HA, Increased 300 M 2020 - counties and Food County household food & 2024 Utilization initiatives Government nutrition security of Baringo, DRLSP, KCSAP, National Government Livestock Baringo All wards Provision of pasture 10,000 BCG/Partners Increased feeds 10 M August South, ogotio, certified seeds for livestock for 2 024 Eldama increased Zavine, production Baringo Central, Baringo North & Tiaty All sub- Apiculture 20 County Increased honey 10 M August counties promotion Groups Government, production 2024 BCG Water Health and Nutrition All health Vitamin A 102,20 MOH, Improved body 7 M Twice facilities. Supplementation 0 UNICEF, immunity a year Selected ECDs Hellen Keller, ChildFund All Health Zinc 77,000 County 0.9 M Routine Facilities supplementation Government Education Page 20 of 25 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food Interventions Table 18: Proportion of Population in Need of Assistance Sub-county 2023 LRA Food Population Estimated Proportion in Need of Immediate Security Rank Food Assistance (percent) Per Sub-county (Worst to Best) 2023 SRA 2024 LRA Tiaty East 1 79,923 (19,980) 25% (11,980)15% Tiaty West 2 73,424 (18,356) 25% (11,014) 15% Baringo North 3 104,871 (12,584) 12% (10,487) 10% Baringo South 4 90,104 10,000 (11%) 4,500 (5%) Mogotio 5 91,104 10,000 (11%) (0)0% Baringo Central 6 96,951 (2,908)3% (0)0% Eldama Ravine 7 129,535 (2950)2% (0)0% Total population in need of food assistance 37,980 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Sub-county Ward Intervention No. of Proposed Required Available Time beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources F rame Agriculture All sub- All 1. Purchase and 3000 National 40 M Staff 2024 - counties distribution of Government, 2025 Traditional County high value Government crops. and FAO, 2. Construction of WFP, ELRP, farm ponds 3. Supply of drip kits and multi- storey gardens and vegetable seeds ALL Crops Post-harvest 5000 National 10 M Staff 2024 - management Government, 2025 \u2022 Purchase and County distribution of Government, hermetic bags and \u2022 Purchase and development distribution of partners solar driers Livestock Baringo Vaccination against 100,000 cattle BCG, FAO, 9 M Technical Dec North , LSD, CCPP, and PPR 270,000 goats SHA Staff 2024 Mogotio, Deworming 50,000 sheep Tiaty Page 21 of 25 Baringo Establishment of 12 4,500 HHs MoALF, 90 M Land Aug \u2013 North, Tiaty strategic livestock feed SHA, BCG, Dec East & reserves NDMA, & 2024 West, other Partners Mogotio, Baringo South Tiaty West Loruk, Renovation/construction 13,000 HHs BCG, County 50 M Land, Aug \u2013 & East Chura, of livestock Auction Government Staff Dec Nginyang, yards 2024 Kolloa All sub- Provision of certified 5,000 HHs BCG, County 5 M Land, Aug \u2013 counties pasture seeds Government Staff Dec 2024 Water All sub- All wards Promotion of roof water counties harvesting structures Health and Nutrition All sub- 150 Intensify mass screening Under-fives 1.2 M Staff and July \u2013 counties Health and referrals from hotspot Tools Dec 2024 Facilities areas All sub- County Deworming 83,066 BCG \u2013 MOH 1.66 M Staffs Aug \u2013 counties wide children (1 \u2013 5 Dec 2024 Years) Education Page 22 of 25 - Page 21\n\nBARINGO COUNTY 2024 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Technical Steering Group (CSG)1 July 2024 1Leah Sang, Losenge Koolic, Esther Barasa (NDMA),Ann Kimwa (Health), Lily Rotich (Livestock), Susan Mitei (Education), Wesley Chemjor (Agriculture), Henry Nyamweya (Water), Fridah Limo (DRM) and Irene Maasai (Children Proetcion). Executive Summary The 2024 long rains food and nutrition assessment was conducted by Baringo County sector working groups with visual support from Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment covered four main livelihood zones namely Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Irrigated Cropping and Mixed farming. The main objective was to assess the impact of the March to May (MAM) 2024 rainfall season considering other shocks and hazards and provide recommended interventions for response. Several parts of the county generally received above average rainfall of about 126 140 percent of the normal during the 2024 MAM season. Recurring incidences of cattle rustling and bandits were experienced in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wars in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. Around 2,352 households were affected by the flooding with approximately 1,955 households completely displaced, 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households. A total of 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected in one way or another by the recent flood occurrences causing damage to school infrastructure. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Fall army worm was reported in maize growing areas that affected approximately 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county. The spread of the fall army worn is attributed to the dry spell in the month of June 2024. Acreage under irish potatoes increased by 117 percent while area under maize, beans and sorghum remained relatively comparable to long term average. The projected yields for maize and beans are likely to decline by 19.3 percent and 42.5 percent respectively. Area under irrigated crops significantly increased due to sufficient water for irrigation. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average by 36 percent. Farmers have maize stock which are 49 percent below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. A total of 1,684,000 bales of hay are currently being held in 93 hay stores, which have a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. According to July 2024 SMART Survey, proportion of 7.8 percent of households in Tiaty had poor food consumption, while 78.5 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns. Additionally, 11 - 13.7 percent of households had borderline food consumption. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent same period in 2023. The indicative phase classification for the county is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Page i of 25",
            "Baringo_LRA_2023.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2023 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), July 2023 The 2023 long rains assessment was conducted by the technical members of the Baringo county steering group (CSG) and supported by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in all the main livelihood zones. The main objective of the assessment was to develop an objective, evidence base and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the onset of the long rains of 2023. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The onset of the long rains was observed in the second dekad of March which was normal and the amount received were normal totaling 91-121 percent of normal. Temporal distribution was fair to good while the spatial distribution was fairly even. The season ceased in the third dekad of May which was normal. Insecurity incidents were reported in parts of Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties but were contained. Other shocks were high food prices, crop pests, crop failure and livestock diseases. Acreage put under rain fed agriculture was above long term mean (LTA) but the projected yield will be below LTA with maize accounting for 74 percent of LTA. Acreage put under irrigated agriculture was above LTA and the projected yield will be above LTA for most of the crops. Cereal stocks for farmers were extremely below LTA but for traders and millers, the stocks were above LTA due to high demand. Forage conditions were fair to good across the livelihood zones, with Pastoral areas experiencing pasture deficit. Livestock body condition was fair to good for various livestock species while milk production was fair. Milk consumption was below LTA while the milk prices were above LTA. Livestock prices were improving and were within the seasonal range while cereal prices were still very high compared to LTA. Terms of trade were below the LTA and outside seasonal range. The main water sources were normal while the trekking distances were slightly above LTA in the Pastoral areas and normal in other livelihood zones. Waiting time at water sources and water consumption per person per day remained normal. The most common disease was upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) for both children and adults. The county had acceptable food consumption score though the Pastoral areas had the majority of the sampled households not having acceptable food consumption score. About 39, 24 and 37 percent of the sampled households were applying none copping, stressed and crisis food based coping strategies respectively while 21, 32 and 46 percent of the sampled households applied crisis, stressed and none copping livelihood based coping strategies respectively. Tiaty East and West sub counties had the lowest latrine coverage at eight percent while hand washing practices were fairly fair across the livelihood zones. Malnutrition levels were still critical with a GAM rate of 23 percent while children at risk of malnutrition was above LTA at 22 percent. When comparing the previous term and the current term, there was a marginal decline in school enrolment at ECDE and primary level while at the secondary level, there was a slight improvement in enrolment. Most of the ECDE and primary schools had access to school feeding program. The overall IPC phase classification for the county is at phase two (Stressed) whereby Pastoral livelihood zone was in phase three, Agro-Pastoral zone was in phase two while the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone was in phase one (NoneMinimal). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ ii 3.1.1 Crop production ......................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Cereal stocks .......................................................................................................................... 8 3.1.3 Livestock production ................................................................................................................. 9 3.2.1 Market prices ........................................................................................................................... 16 3.2.2 Terms of trade .......................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.3 Income sources ......................................................................................................................... 18 3.2.4 Water access and availability .................................................................................................. 18 3.2.5 Food consumption .................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.6 Coping strategy ........................................................................................................................ 22 3.3.1Morbidity and mortality patterns ........................................................................................... 23 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation .................................................................... 24 3.3.3 Nutrition status ......................................................................................................................... 27 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene ............................................................................................................ 29 3.5.1 Enrolment ................................................................................................................................. 32 3.5.2 Water availability in schools during the season .................................................................... 33 3.5.3 Effect of the season on school infrastructure ......................................................................... 33 3.5.4 Inter sector links....................................................................................................................... 33 5.1.1 Phase classification ................................................................................................................... 37 5.1.2 Summary of findings ................................................................................................................ 37 5.1.3 Sub County ranking ................................................................................................................. 37 5.2.1 Food interventions.................................................................................................................... 38 5.2.2 None food interventions ........................................................................................................... 39 5.3. Recommended interventions ......................................................................................................... 44 5.3.1 Food interventions.................................................................................................................... 44 5.3.2 None food interventions ........................................................................................................... 45 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Mixed farming Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest, and Elgeyo - Marakwet Irrigated Cropping 14 39 and West Pokot to the west. The Pastoral county covers an approximate area of Agro-Pastoral 29 5 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a Marginal Mixed population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). Figure 1: Population based on livelihood zones The county is divided into six (6) sub- Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are five main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2023 Long Rains Food Security Assessment (LRA) was to conduct an evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2023 long rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment aimed at ascertaining the quantity and quality of the 2023 short rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation, obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs, assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods, assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. The assessment also aimed at taking stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programs that promote preparedness and build household resilience. It also assessed potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2023 Long Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group members who included technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition as well as development partners based at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 10th -18th July 2023. The process began with the administration of the sector checklists followed by the initial CSG meeting whose main agenda was to give the aims and objectives of the assessment. This was then followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tools. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 2.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the long rains season took place during the second dekad of March which was normal. The amount of rains received during the season were normal with Tiaty East, Mogotio, Eldama Ravine and parts of Baringo South receiving 111-125 percent of the normal rains while the rest of the county including Baringo North, Baringo Central and Parts of Baringo South sub counties receiving 91-110 percent of the normal rains. In terms of temporal distribution, the peak of the season was observed in the second dekad of April while in the month of May, there was a significant decline in the amount of rains received which were below normal compared to the long term mean (LTA). The spatial distribution was relatively even across the county although there were some pockets in Tiaty which include Silale and Tirioko wards which had uneven distribution. The season ceased normally during the third dekad of May although the county did receive some significant rains in the month of June (Figure 2). The county also got off-season rains in the third dekad of June. Baringo County-Jan - Dec 2023 RFE (2023) RFEAVG NDVI (2023) NDVIAVG 0.7 120 0.6 100m I V D N0.5 89 00 l l a 0.4 60 R 0.3 40 0.2 20 0.1 0 MonthDekad Figure 2: Rainfall performance 2.2 InsecurityConflict Baringo County is among conflict prone areas in the ASALs of Kenya, which has a long history of cattle rustling which dates back to 1970s. It has transformed from traditional practice to the current criminal militarized activity. The root cause of perennial conflict in Baringo is majorly resource conflict aggravated by proliferation of small firearms, successive political incitements, severe drought, cultural practices, economic marginalization and scarcity of resources (such as productive land, water and good infrastructure). These conflicts result in loss of lives, loss of property and livelihoods, displacement of people and lead to poverty. It also leads to closure of critical facilities for example schools, dispensaries, roads, markets and destruction of water points and irrigation schemes. During drought spells, rising tension and sporadic attacks over shared resources increase at the following hotspots; Baringo South sub county - Mukutani, Mochongoi, Arabal, Kiserian, Kasiela, Rugus, Lomaiwe, Ngelecha, Chebinyiny, Noosukuro, Tuyotich, Sinoni and Kapendasum. Baringo North sub county-Yatya, Kagir, Chemoe, Ngaratuko, Kinyach, Kaborion, Kapturo, Kesumet, Chepkisin, Kalabata and Kinyach. Tiaty East and West sub counties- Nadome, Kapedo, Koloa, Loruk, Amaya, Lemuyek, Makutano, Kositei, Kipnai and Loiwat. SamburuBaringo county border - Longewan and Losuk . Baringo-Laikipia border - Olmoran LNC. These conflicts result to communities being pushed to move to safer places with their cattle or livestock thus increased incidences of drought related livestock diseases such as CCPP, FMD, LSD, ECF etc. During these times families are separated, early pregnancies, malnutrition cases and school drop outs. Loss of livelihoods and depletion of water sources is also reported. During the season under review, approximately 3,982 households were affected and interfering with their seasonal activities. The conflict affected Baringo North, Baringo south and Tiaty sub counties. Shelters of some of the affected households were razed to ashes while others were broken into. Unspecified number of populations have either been integrated with their relatives and neighbors in safer nearest villages. No IDP camp has been set up though hosting families have cited congestion in their houses requiring humanitarian support. (Situation report July 2023, by Baringo County Disaster Risk Management). All school which were previously temporary closed due to insecurity have been opened (Kapendasum, Arabal, Kasiela, Kagir and chepkesin primary schools) in Baringo South and North. The impacts of conflict with respect to food security in the afore-mention areas include; reduced potential land acreage earmarked for crop production (Embosos, Ol arabal Mukutani irrigation schemes, Mochongoi, Kerio valley), failed farmers extension services, infrastructure vandalism, suspended development partners activities, declined market operations and displacement of population. Following the socioeconomic effects of cattle rustling in Baringo county, the following measures will go into arresting the escalating situation; The pastoralists be encouraged to practice livelihoods diversification, increased water points and pasture development in various places, tackle invasive species in their grazing fields, regular peace meetings, enhanced road network, capacity building of grazing committees, enhance security patrols in hotspot areas mentioned above, forceful disarmament and the long term plan is to expand educational institutions in the areas of the aggressor and registration of community land as private land (individual title) or as community land under Community land Act 2016. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Shocks High cereal prices Cereal prices particularly for maize continued to be very high compared to the LTA hence limiting access to the vulnerable households. During the assessment period, maize prices retailed at more than 70 percent of the LTA and hence affecting terms of trade more so for the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral households. Hazards Crop failure Crop failure for the maize crop was mostly observed in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone due to the poor performance of the rains during the month of May whereby it ceased raining when the crops were at the most critical stage of grain fillingtussling. Crop pests Sporadic cases of fall army worms were observed across the county attacking maize crop in the Mixed farming and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and this may lead to significant crop loses. Livestock diseases The county experienced sporadic cases of livestock diseases which affected productivity. Some of the diseases prevalent in the county include CCPP, lumpy skin diseases PPR among others. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crop production The long rains season is important for food and Nutrition security in the county as almost 80 percent of the countys food needs are derived from it. The season is relied upon for production of various food crops and in recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes. Even though the county received relatively normal rains in terms of amount, its distribution was erratic and hence affecting planting activities. Farmers planted at different times depending on the local onset of the season such that by the time the season was ending, crops were at different physiological stages. Table 1 shows main food crops grown in the County which include maize, beans, millets, potatoes, cowpeas and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (Fruits and vegetables) and Cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum) Table 1: Contribution of crops to food and income Livelihood Crop Income Food Agro pastoral Maize 10 90 Beans 15 85 Finger millet 40 60 Cowpeas 40 60 Mixed Maize 40 60 Beans 40 60 Finger millet 30 70 Irrigated Maize 80 20 Tomatoes 90 10 Water melons 90 10 Seed maize 90 10 Rain fed agriculture Table 2: Rain fed agriculture Crop Area planted Long Term 2023 Long rains Long Term Average during 2023 Average (5 year) season production (5 year) production Long rains area planted during the (90 kg bags) during the Long rains season Long rains season (Ha) Projected season (Ha) (90 kg bags) 1. Maize 45,786 39,718 732,576 992,950 2. Beans 23,267 20,244 93,068 161,952 3. Sorghum 1,695 1,685 13,560 20,220 4. Irish Potatoes 3,906 1,800 156,750 179,000 The area planted with maize crop was 115 percent of the LTA (Table 2) and this was due to enhanced campaigns to farmers to increase acreage following weather forecast messaging which had indicated that the season was likely to be normal. In Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones, maize crops were exhibiting moisture stress as a result of early cessation of the rains which happened when the crops were at their most critical stage of grain filling and tussling and therefore there are high chances of crop failure. Crop failure rates for maize are estimated to be 30 percent in Eldama Ravine, 85 percent in Mogotio, 45 percent in Baringo North, 50 percent in Baringo Central-, 65 percent in Baringo South- and 25 percent of irrigated crop while the county average is expected to be 55 percent. However, areas along Tugen hills, Mochongoi and upper parts of Eldama Ravine, the maize crop is relatively in good condition and farmers are likely to realize 50 to 70 percent of their normal yield. There were cases of infestation by field pests, whereby 46 percent of the area planted was affected by Fall army worms reported in all sub counties, and this was aggravated by the dry spells that occurred within the season. The projected yield for maize crop is expected to be 74 percent of the LTA in the upper areas of the county. The area under sorghum production was almost normal compared to the LTA and the projected yield is 67 percent while area put under potatoes was 217 percent of LTA and the projected yield is 88 percent of LTA. The area put under beans production was 114 percent of LTA but the projected yield will be 58 percent of LTA and this was attributed to poor temporal distribution of the rains which led to flower abortion. In a normal year by now most of the maize crop would be in milkygrain filling stage and beans being harvested, this year most of the crops are at vegetative stage and permanent wilting stage. Irrigated crop production Table 3: Irrigated crop Crop Area Long Term 2023 Long rains Long Term Average planted Average (3 season production (3 years) production during the years) (90 kg bagsMT) during Long rains 2023 Long area planted Projected season rains during Long (90 kg bagsMT) season rains season (ha) (ha) Maize 296 173 10,360 4,325 Beans 15 23 300 460 Tomatoes 160 82 4,400 2,050 Water melons 100 45 3,000 1,350 Seed Maize 2,850 2,755 99,750 110,200 The area under maize was above the LTA by 171 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most farmers who can access irrigation water opted to plant maize in the schemes and by pumping water from rivers and lake Baringo (Table 3). This was mainly in three Sub- Counties where there was expansion in acreage under irrigation namely Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The area under seed maize also increased as more schemes were brought on board in seed production like Loboi, Lorwai and Mosuro irrigation scheme in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. In other irrigation schemes there was reduced river water flows which was caused by depressed rains hence 45 percent crop failure is likely to be realized. Most of the crops in irrigation schemes are for income especially seed maize, water melons and tomatoes. Men are the income earners from the crops but women and youth managed the crops while marketing was mainly undertaken by women. About 30-50 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was not utilized due to low water volumes in the rivers. However, it should be noted that less than five percent of the countys population is involved in irrigated agriculture and that maize production from this zone contributes less than 0.5 percent of the countys average maize production in the season under review. 3.1.2 Cereal stocks Table 4: Cereals stocks Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Green grams Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Households 42,745 290,864 3,947 468 740 620 Traders 78,833 34,928 3720 1,056 2,998 324 264 150 Millers 20,902 8,382 Food 1,242 3 AidNCPB Totals 142,480 334,174 322 1,059 6,945 794 1,004 770 Households The stock held by households is below LTA by 86 percent (Table 4) and this was due to the poor harvest realized last year and over the other preceding years. The bulk of the stock is in Eldama Ravine sub- ccounty at 55 percent whereby few farmers didnt dispose their stock even though the prices were high. National Cereal and Produce Board also did not purchase maize from farmers but with the currently high prices, farmers are releasing their stocks. Most farmers in other areas depleted their stocks as they sold their stock to purchase inputs for the long rains season. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest but the available stocks may last for less than a month in the Mixed farming livelihood zone while in Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones, there were no stocks. Traders The traders also had their stock above the LTA by 225 percent due to anticipated crop failure and prevailing high prices, following the poor performance of the long rains season. In the affected areas, price of cereals has gone up thus straining the families economically. About 85 percent of the households were dependent on the markets for their food supply, and this was more pronounced in the Pastoral, Agro-pastoral. The increase in food prices has also influenced the increase in stocks by traders as compared to last year when the prices were relatively normal. Millers The local millers stocks were higher than the LTA by 249 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most households were purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (Posho Millers). Other factors such as the looming crop failure and high cereal prices also motivated millers and traders to acquire more stocks. Traders and millers had more stocks in the Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones as the households rely mostly on markets in accessing food. Post harvesting issues So far, the county is yet to experience food safety issues that include aflatoxin and high moisture content levels since harvesting is still going on. 3.1.3 Livestock production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The long rain period in the County is very important for pasture and fodder production, which is much relied by the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral communities as their main source of feed for livestock. Agricultural byproducts, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are important component of livestock feed. These by- products are important for their utilization during dry season and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards of the county Contribution of livestock sector to both food and income in the household food security is as follows (Table 5). Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income SNo. Livelihood zone contribution Food income 1. Mixed farming 40 30 2. Irrigated 35 30 3. Agro pastoral 40 40 4. Pastoral 60 80 Impacts of March April May rains on Livestock In Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, the rains were poorly distributed which affected negatively pasture and browse recovery. The current forage conditions in these livelihood zones are generally fair to poor, which is not normal at this time of the year. The livestock production potential during the season under review is still sub optimal due to poor rains, livestock diseases, among other factors. Pasture and browse situation Table 6: Forage conditions Pasture Browse Livelih Condition How long to Factors Condition How long to Factors ood last (Months) Limiting last (Months) Limiting zone access access Curr Nor Curr Nor Curr Nor Curr Nor ent mal ent mal ent mal ent mal Pastoral Fair Good 1 3 InsecurityCo Fair Good 2-3 3 InsecurityCo nflict nflict Disease Disease Agro - Fair Good 3 Droughtinsec Fair Good 2-3 3 Droughtinsec Pastoral urity urity Irrigate Fair Good 2 3 DiseaseConfl Fair Good 2-3 3 DiseaseConfl d zone ict ict Mixed Fair Good 2 3 DiseasesCon Fair Good 2-3 3 DiseasesCon farming flict flict Forage conditions for both browse and pastures were in fair to good conditions across all the livelihood zones and this was not normal compared to the previous seasons as it ought to be in good conditions in a typical year (Table 6). The pastures are expected to last for one month in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones, the pastures are likely to last for two months. The browse is likely to last for at least two months across the livelihood zones. The forage and browse were not in their normal conditions because of the erratic patterns of the long rains especially in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Forage access was being hampered by insecurity challenges in parts of Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties. Livestock diseases also affected access to pasture resources in certain parts of the county especially in the pastoral livelihood zones. Invassive species particularly in parts of Kollowa, Silale, Tirioko and Ribko wards and parts of Baringo South sub county were observed to be significant and they were responsible for displacing palatable pasture species hence affecting availability. The invasive plants observed were Opuntia ficus-indica, Dodonaea fiscosa, Prosopis juliflora, Acacia reficiens and Panthenium hysterophorus. Crop residues are an important source of livestock feed in the county particularly in the Mixed farming and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones especially during period of harvesting. As farmers embark on harvesting of their crops in the next one month, its expected that the crop residues will come in handy in supplementing livestock feeding. Moreover, livestock are likely to benefit from some of the failed crop especially maize which will be converted to livestock feed. Livestock feed conservation status The number of bales currently being held in the stores across the county is very low compared to their holding capacities and this was caused by the depressed season which could not support pasture production (Table 7). The stocks levels ranged from one to five percent across the sub counties with only Eldama Ravine sub county having substantial stocks of about 17 percent of their storage capacity. Most of the stocks are being held by farmers and their prices were within the normal range. Price stability was attributed to availability of the natural forage which were fairly in good conditions. There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder, but there are institutions doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST. Table 7: Livestock feed Sub County No. of Storage No. of Average Average Comments E.g Hay Capacity Bales Weight price per percentage held by Stores (Total currently per bale bale farmers and other number of being held (in Kgs) (Kshs.) Institutions bales) Baringo North 14 150,000 2,000 12 - 15 350 80 by farmers, 20 by bales farmer groups Baringo 5 100,000 3,000 12 - 15 350 80 by farmers, 20 by Central farmer groups Baringo South 10 80,000 1,000 12 - 15 350 80 by farmers, 20 by Mogotio 35 200,000 10,000 12 - 15 300 80 by farmers, 20 by Eldama Ravine 50 300,000 50,000 12 - 15 300 80 by farmers, 20 by Tiaty 4 10,000 0 12 - 15 350 No hay at the moment Livestock body condition Table 8: Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Mixed BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4-5 BCS 5 - - Irrigated BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4-5 BCS 5 - - Agro-pastoral BCS 3-4 BCS 4 BCS 3 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 - - Pastoral BCS 3-4 BCS 4 BCS 3 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 NB: BCS 1 Very PoorVery thin, BCS 2Poor, BCS 3Fair, BCS 4 Good, BCS 5 Very Good Livestock body condition for cattle was fair to good in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in Irrigated and Mixed farming livelihood zones, the body condition was good (Table 8). For the small stocks, the livestock body condition was fairly good across the livelihood zones. Compared to the previous assessment of the short rains, there was a notable improvement in livestock body condition following the onset of the long rains which led to improvement in forage and water availability. The livestock body condition may improve further if the county gets more rains in the month of August which will sustain the pastures and browse. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Table 9: Tropical livestock unit Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 2.45 3 5.8 5.5 Irrigated cropping 2.86 3.5 6.2 6.5 Agro-pastoral 3.87 5 7.5 7 Pastoral 4.35 6 9.3 7 Average 3.68 4.5 7.2 9 NB: 1 TLU250kgs In comparison to the previous assessment, the average TLU for both poor and medium income households remained almost the same at 3.6 and 7.2 respectively (Table 9). Compared to the LTA, the TLUs were below normal and this was as a result the cumulative impacts of failed rainfall seasons that were experienced in the county for the last three years. Milk Production and consumption Table 10: Milk production Livelihood Milk Production Milk consumption (Litres) per Prices (Ksh)Litre zone (Litres)Household Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed 3 8 2 5 70 50 Irrigated 2 8 2 5 80 50 Agro-pastoral 1 4 1 3 100 60 Pastoral 1 3 0.5 6 100 60 Milk production across the livelihood zones was less than the LTA although the production trend was improving due to the improving livestock body condition (Table 10). Milk consumption was also less than the LTA due to low production level while milk prices were above the LTA across livelihood zones with the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones having the highest price at Kshs 100litre. Livestock Migration The migration routes were mainly normal for now although the animals that had initially moved out of the county in search of pastures were yet to come back to their usual grazing sites as the forage conditions were yet to achieve full recovery. The current livestock migration routes include Churo-Amaya-Laikipia, Kolloa-Tirioko-West Pokot,Silale-Malaso-Turkana, and Arabal- Akorioan-Sibilo. Cattle were the most affected species in terms of migration especially in the Pastoral livelihood zone whereby they were expected to be within their usual grazing sites but most of them were yet to come back. Projected livestock migration If the June-July-August (JJA) does not perform well, then escalation of livestock movement both within and outside the county is likely to pick up with more animals moving to Laikipia, West Pokot and Turkana counties. Livestock diseases and mortalities Contiguous Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), Foot and Mouth disease (FMD), Lumpy skin disease (LSD), Mange, Sheepgoat pox and new Newcastle in poultry were the main livestock diseases prevailing in the county (Table 11) while livestock mortality rates were normal at two Table 11: Livestock diseases Sub- Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures county lost taken(Vaccinations) Baringo CCPP Endemic Goats No vaccinations Central livestock LSD Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations deaths FMD Kapkelelwa Cattle No action reported Tiaty CCPP Sub-county wise Goats NR Ring vaccination done PPR Sub-county wise Sheep and NR Ring vaccination done goats Eldama FMD Koibatek, Cattle Suspected 7,000 vaccinated Ravine LembusPekerra south sheep pox sheep CCPP Kimorok Goats 30 cases No vaccination done North sheep pox sheep CCPP Kimorok Goats 30 affected No vaccination done Rabies All wards dogs No deaths 200 vaccinated ECF Kabartonjo, Saimo- Cattle No deaths 60 vaccinated Kipsaraman Helminths Saimosoi Cattle, No deaths 22,000 livestock dewormed sheep, goats Birth rate The general birth rates declined slightly during the period under review across all the livelihood zones as the forage conditions were not in good conditions during the conception period. The poor forage conditions had affected the body condition hence affecting the birth rates. Water for Livestock The main water sources for livestock were pansdams, borehole, rivers and springs across the various livelihood zones (Table 12). The average return distances from the water sources was normal in Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones while in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones, the return distances were slightly above the LTA. The increased return distances in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones was attributed to decline in the available water due to poor recharge and high evaporation of surface-based water sources due to the prevailing high temperatures. Table 12: Livestock water Livelihood Sources Return average Expected duration to last zone distances (Km) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Rivers, springs, Streams, Rivers, 1-2 2 1 month Throughout Farming piped water, springs, piped boreholes, water, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, shallow Rivers, shallow 1-2 2 1 month Throughout cropping wells and springs, wells and springs. bore holes Agro- Water pans, Streams, water pans, 6-10 4-6 1 month 3 months pastoral Boreholes, Boreholes traditional river wells Pastoral Bore-holes, water Water-pans, Bore- 7-10 4-7 1 month 3 months pans, traditional holes, rivers river wells Livestock watering frequency In terms of watering frequency, it was normal in the Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones while in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones, the watering frequencies was less than LTA (Table 13). Table 13: Watering frequency Livelihood Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Mixed 7 7 NA NA 7 7 7 7 Irrigated 7 7 NA NA 7 7 7 7 Agro- 4 7 5 7 4 7 4 7 pastoral Pastoral 4 7 5 7 4 7 4 7 3.1.4 Impacts on availability The long rains season is critical in food security in the county as it provides over 80 percent of the food requirements for its residents. Food availability is expected to stabilize in the next one month due to the expected crop harvest although the county will still experience some food deficit due to crop failures that were occasioned by poor rainfall distribution. Livestock productivity is also on a recovery path and therefore milk production is expected to contribute to food availability although production levels are not yet within the normal level, implying that milk consumption deficit will still continue to be felt in the next 1-2 months. Cereal stocks were still very low compared to LTA but this is expected to change in the next 1-2 months as households embark on harvesting of various crops in the county, a factor that is likely to enhance food consumption at the households. 3.2 Market operations Main livestock and food markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North sub county, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty East and West sub counties, Marigat and Kabel in Baringo South sub county, Majimoto and Emining in Mogotio sub county, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub county. All the markets were operational as they were well stocked with various commodities although cereal prices including maize were still very high compared to LTA. On the other hand, livestock prices were on an improving trend due to the ongoing recovery in livestock body condition for all species. The demand for livestock animals was higher than the supply as most farmers opted to keep their animals for fattening and reproduction following an improvement in forage conditions. There were less buyers for livestock in feeder markets found within Tiaty areas due to security tensions, a factor that was affecting supply of animals in major livestock markets such as Nginyang. As for the food commodities, most of the maize was coming from Uganda though some few stocks had started coming from neighboring counties such as Uasin Gishu, a factor that had started pushing down maize prices. The markets were well supplied with leafy vegetables, fruits and Irish potatoes whose prices had significantly gone down compared to the previous assessment and were being sourced from within the county. 3.2.1 Market prices Maize prices Maize prices did undergo a significant increment during the period under review, rising by 16 percent from March when the average price was at Kshs 94kg to Kshs 109kg by June (Figure 3). By June, the prices were higher than the short-term average (STA) at this time of the year by 77 percent and were falling outside the seasonal range. The increase in maize prices was attributed to diminished stocks at household level in all livelihood zones due to poor harvests and increased cost of production. Most households were depending on retailers for the maize which was being sourced from the neighbouring counties. However, by July, the maize prices declined by 11 percent compared to June and this was attributed to the ongoing maize harvest both within the county and in the neighbouring counties and this trend may continue for the next two months. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 100 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg Maize Prices -July 2023 120.00 100.00 S 80.00 ( 60.00 c ir 40.00 e 20.00 STA Upper Limit 2023 Lower Limit Figure 3: Maize prices Goat prices During the period under review, there was a consistent goat price increment of 14 percent from an average of Kshs 2,565 in March to Kshs 2,920 in May (Figure 4). However, by June, there was a slight decline in the price by two percent compared to the previous month and was fetching at Ksh.2,869 per head and rose slightly to Kshs 2,950 by July which was above STA by 13 percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh. 3,767 and lowest in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The low prices in the Agropastoral livelihood zone was attributed to the frequent insecurity situations that has affected market operations. The improving price trend was attributed to improving body conditions in the county. Moreover, farmers were not under any pressure to sale their animals as they opted to keep them for fattening and restocking due to availability of sufficient browse and livestock water Goat Prices -July 2023 ) 3000 K 2500 e c 2000 G 1000 STA Lower Limit 2023 Upper llimit Figure 4: Goat prices 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade (ToT) were below the LTA and falling outside the seasonal range for the entire assessment period, a factor that was contributed by high maize prices. As from March to May, there was some marginal improvement in the terms of trade due to the improvement in goat prices although these gains were lost in June as a result of increment in maize prices and a slight decline in goat prices. By July, terms of trade were at 30.7 which was an increase of 16 percent in comparison to the previous month (Figure 5). This has been attributed to stable goat prices and decreasing maize prices. The current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 35 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 43 while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 22.2. The purchasing power was expected to continue improving as the maize prices were anticipated to decline due to the ongoing harvesting in the county and neighbouring Terms of Trade -July 2023 o r 50 t ht40 f o 0 s g Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec STA 2023 52 Upper Limit Figure 5: Terms of trade 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of cash income varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, casual waged labour among others as illustrated in Table 14. Charcoal production was also on the rise mostly in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. In the Irrigated livelihood zone, most of the crops were grown as cash crops which served as the main source of income Table 14: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral Agro-Pastoral Irrigated Mixed Farming Livestock Production 88 50 5 23 Food Crop Production - 4 5 5 Cash crop production -- - 59 30 Small Business 1 4 5 7 Casual Waged Labour 1 15 10 20 Formal Waged Labour 1 5 4 5 Poultry Production 2 5 3 1 Fishing - 10 4 - 3.2.4 Water access and availability Major water sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells (Table 15). Normally, water sources are mainly concentrated in Mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Generally, Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zone communities have more access to water than in Pastoral livelihood zones. Several open water sources were operating below their normal capacities whereby river Nginyang., Endao, Wasseges, Kakabul among others were almost dry. Water pans in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood areas of Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Baringo North sub counties were recharged to between 30-40 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 80-90 normally. In isolated cases, Kapkchelukuny water pans in Mogotio Sub-county were recharged close to their normal capacities The available water is likely to last for one to two months in Pastoral areas while in Irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones, water pans were recharged up to at least 50 percent of their normal capacity was expected to last for two to three months. The status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones was unstable. Currently 80 percent of the boreholes were operational across all livelihood zones; however, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs. Table 15: Water sources Ward Water No. of Normal No. of Projected Normal of full Livelihood Source Operational Current Duration Duration Capacity zone (Three (3) Operational (Operational that water Recharged major Sources Sources) last in by the Rains sources) months Pastoral 1. Bore 96 85 Over 6 Months Over 6 stable 2.Water 63 56 1 2 Months 3 4 30 - 40 3.Springs 10 10 1 - 2 Months 3 4 20 - 30 Agro - 1. Bore 56 52 Over 6 Months Over 6 stable 2. Water 23 19 1 2 Months 3 4 20 - 30 3. Springs 18 18 1-2Months Over 3 10 - 20 Mixed 1. Bore 139 116 Over 6 Months Over 6 stable 2. Springs 135 135 Over 3 Months Over 6 40 - 50 3.Rivers 6 6 Over 3 Months 4 -5 40 - 50 Irrigated 1. Rivers 6 6 3months Over 6 20 -30 2.Shallow 8 3 3-4months Over 6 Reducing Discharge Wells months 3. Swamps 3 3 Over 3 Months stable Distance to water sources and waiting time The average distances to domestic water sources were stable at 3.5 to 4.5 km in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal (Table 16). The distances were normal at 0.5 -1.5 km in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming zones with minimal increasing trends. The duration of time spent queuing for water is projected to increase in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones if the situation will not improve due to high temperatures prevailing at the moment. The waiting time at the source in Mixed farming livelihood zone was between 1 - 3 minutes which is above normal while in Pastoral and Agro- pastoral areas it was between 3-5 minutes. Cost of water and Consumption Water was free at open water sources while the cost of water at developed water sources was generally stable at ksh.3-5 across all livelihoods. Water consumption per person per day was normal at 20 25 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zone and 12-15 litres in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zone compared to normal. About 10 20 percent of households in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria Table 16: Water distances, cost, time and consumption Ward Return Distance to Cost of Water at Waiting Time at Average Water livelihood Water for Domestic Source (Kshs. Per Water Source Consumption zone Use (Km) 20litres) (Minutes) (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 3.5 4.5 3.5 - .4.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3-5 12- 15 12-15 Agro 3 3.5 3 3.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3-5 12 - 55 11-15 Mixed 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 2-3 15 - 20 20-25 Irrigated 0.5 - 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 15 - 20 20-25 3.2.5 Food consumption Food consumption score 120.0 Food consumption score 100.0 80.0 40.0 20.0 a a o a a o a a o a a o a a o P P r P P r P P r P P r P P r r g A d e ta r g A d e ta r g A d e ta r g A d e ta r g A d e ta g g g g g ir ir ir ir ir r r r r r I I I I I Acceptable Borderline Poor Figure 6: Food consumption score During the season under review, a significant proportion of households within the Pastoral livelihood zone did not have acceptable food consumption score whose score was between 31-40 percent (Figure 6). This was attributed to food consumption gaps that were prevalent in this zone following failed rainfall seasons in the last three years which affected livestock production, a sector that is a key source of food and income. In the Agro-pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zone, most of the households had acceptable food consumption score. 3.2.6 Coping strategy Coping strategy index (CSI) Irrigated Agro pastoral Pastoral Figure 7:CSI During the reporting period, households in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones were adopting more coping strategies as a way of adjusting to food consumption gaps that were being experienced by household members (Figure 7). This was due to the cumulative impacts of the previous failed rains which affected both food and livestock production. Among the strategies that were being applied include skipping of meals, reduced meal portions, consuming less preferred food stuff among others. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1Morbidity and mortality patterns Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) Morbidity of Underfive years continued to be the leading cause of morbidity in county 69665 compared to the previous assessment. The number of children seen with upper 30000 21407 respiratory tract 20000 14712 infection in 2022 was 10000 higher compared to the 0 other years same period. URTI Diarrhoea Malaria The chart (Figure 8) shows that 2023 recorded higher Figure 8: Morbidity in under five morbidity cases compared to 2022 among under five population. Morbidity for General Population Morbidity in the general Morbidity for Genelal population population showed a higher caseload and had the same trend as in the children under the age 60000 of five years (Figure 9). 40000 The higher number of 20000 cases of upper 0 respiratory infections URTI Diarrhoea Malaria General population low immunity as well as the onset of the cold season in the high lands. Figure 9: Morbidity in general population Smart survey Morbidity patterns-Tiaty Disease incidence- Baringo 80.0 NS and South 69.1 70.0 90.0 80.7 60.0 80.0 50.0 70.0 40.0 30.3 50.0 30.0 22.5 40.0 24.7 20.0 13.5 23 00 .. 00 16.0 12.6 6.7 10.0 0.6 4.5 1 00 .. 00 0.0 Figure 10: Morbidity-SMART SURVEY Morbidity based on SMART survey follows the same trends as the data from KDHIS (Figure 10). 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Immunization Imunization Coverge Measles Rubella 1 OPV 3 Opv 1 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 2022 2023 Figure 11: Immunization Data from DHIS indicate that the proportion of children who were fully immunized in 2023 was above the national target of 80 percent as compared to 2022 same period (Figure 11). The data showed that all antigens were above the acceptable level of 80 percent coverage; this could be attributed to increase in intergraded Health and Nutrition outreaches in 2023 Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation Baringo County 6 to 11Mths 12 TO 59 MONTHS 6 TO 59 Momths Figure 12: Vitamin A supplementation There has been an increase in Vitamin A supplementation and immunization coverage this year 2023, as compared to 2022 and 2021 (Figure 12). This increase could be attribute to increase in the number of outreaches supported by partners and Baringo county Government, and also continued support of Malezi Bora by partners. According to SMART Survey, Vitamin A coverage for children aged 6 11 months stood at 61.4 percent in Tiaty East and Tiaty West while it was 87 percent in Baringo North and Baringo South respectively (Smart Survey, 2023). Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding (OTP) Out-patient Feeding Program Baringo Trends of SFP program Baringo County 2023 County 2022 1400 120 M A1000 2021 1200 100 R 1000 O800 2020 800 P LTM (5-yr average) 600 P600 40 T 400 200 20 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2020 LTA Figure 13: OTPSFP The above chart (Figure 13) indicated that children attending OTP and SFP increased in the current year as compared to the same period last year 2022. This could be attributed to access to SFP and OPT programs through health and nutrition integrated Outreaches and availability of nutrition commodities. 3.3.3 Nutrition status Underweight Underweight trends Jan -June (2020 2023) 25 who were underweight was above the long-term 18.9 18.8 19.2 20 average with the highest proportion of 19.2 15 12.1 13.6 12.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent in 2022 as seen 10 10.05 10.1 8.9 in the chart (Figure 14) 7.25 7.03 6.2 and this could be attributed to cumulative decline in nutrition Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun status due to the decreased availability of milk and increase of Figure 14: Underweight food prices over the last three years. Nutrition status based on GAM and SAM Nutrition status who were found 26.8 26.4 25 malnourished based on 23.2 23.3 23.2 the global acute malnutrition (GAM) reduced from 26.4 percent in 2022 to 23.3 percent in 2023, this 5 5.3 3.5 4 4 3.5 3.9 4 intervention put in place 0 by Baringo County 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 Government, - Figure 15: GAMSAM GAM SAM Department of Health with support from partners (Figure 15). However, GAM rates still remained high at Critical phase Children at risk of malnutrition Proportion of Children at risk of malnutrition -July 2023 f o 25.0 lihit c fir n on la 10.0 o 5.0 LTA upper Limit 2023 lower limit Figure 16: Nutrition status by MUAC The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition during the month of July was 20.19 percent (Figure 16). This was a decrease as compared to the previous month at 21.8. The current proportion was above the LTA by 30 percent. The relative improvement in the nutrition status across all livelihood zones was contributed by the ongoing nutrition interventions in Baringo North, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Baringo South sub counties. The situation was expected to continue improving with the upscaling of the nutrition outreaches in the county. 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene Sources Of Water In Baringo County Pans and Dams 11 Lakes 12 Traditional River 25 Rivers 13 Boreholes 15 Springs 7 Shallow Wells 2 Figure 17: Water sources According to the smart survey findings, the main water sources in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties were traditional river wells at 25 percent followed by boreholes at 15 percent (Figure 17). Hand washing practices According to the smart survey findings, over 90 percent of the household wash hands before eating with Tiaty leading at 97.7 percent (Figure 18). This was followed by washing hands after visiting toiled at 90.2 percent in Baringo North and South sub counties while Tiaty was at 37.7 percent. These habits have been sustained after COVID 19 pandemic. About 22 percent of the respondents washed hands with soap and water while 51.6 percent washed hands with water only. Compared to the previous assessment, there was a notable improvement in hand washing practices. Tiaty East and Baringo Figure 18: Hand washing Latrine coverage Table 17: Latrine coverage Sub County Latrine coverage Livelihood zone July -Dec 2022 July to December 2023 Open defecation Coverage Coverage (bushes) () Eldama Ravine 78 90 3 Baringo Central 47 71 7 Baringo South 46 48 24 Mogotio 4 5 78 8 Baringo North 42 46 23 Tiaty West 3.14 8 93 Tiaty East 3.14 8 88 Tiaty sub counties had the lowest latrine coverage and the highest open defecation in the County although there was an improvement when compared to the last smart survey done in 2022 (Table 17). The low coverage in Tiaty was mainly attributed to the cultural practices and nomadic lifestyle of the community and this has a negative impact on nutritional status due to possibility of upsurge of water related diseases that may affect food utilization 3.4 Food security trends Table 18: Key food security trends Indicator Short rains assessment, Long rains assessment, July, 2023 January, 2023 of maize stocks held by 68 15 households Livestock body condition Agro-pastoral Poor Agro-pastoral Fair (Cattle) Irrigated Fair Irrigated cropping Good Mixed Good-Fair Mixed Farming Good Pastoral-all Poor Pastoral-all species Fair Water consumption (litres Agro-pastoral 10-15 Agro-pastoral 11-15 per person per day Irrigated 15-20 Irrigated cropping 20-25 Mixed 15-20 Mixed Farming 20-25 Pastoral-all 5-10 Pastoral-all species 12-15 Price of maize (per kg) 90 96 Price of goat 2,446 2,950 Distance to grazing Agro-pastoral 7-13 Agro-pastoral 6-10 Irrigated 1-3 Irrigated cropping 1-2 Mixed 1-3 Mixed Farming 1-2 Pastoral-all 7-13 Pastoral-all species 7-10 Terms of trade 31 Coping strategy index County-17 County-14 Agro-Pastoral-25.2 Agro-Pastoral-17 Pastoral-17.8 Pastoral-15 Irrigated Cropping-3.4 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption score Acceptable 49 Acceptable 50 Borderline 38 Borderline 40 Poor 13 Poor 10 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Enrolment Table 19: Enrolment Term I 2023 Term II 2023 Indicate Increase () Enrollment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Decrease (-) ECD 22,215 24,303 46,518 22,144 24,261 46,411 -107 Primary 66,476 61,527 128,003 66,490 61,442 127,861 -142 Junior 8,109 7,493 15,602 8,109 7,493 15,602 0 Secondary Senior 27,075 26,786 53,861 27,688 26,689 54,384 523 secondary Baringo comprises of 1,119 ECDE centers with an enrolment of 46,411 children with boys comprising of 22,144 and girls 24,267 in the current term (Table 19). Compared to the previous term, the enrolment was at 46,518 comprising of 22,215 boys and 24,303 girls. The decline (0.2 percent) in enrolment at ECDE level was attributed to delay in school meals Program supply, insecurity challenges in some parts of Baringo South, Tiaty and Baringo North sub counties, and transfer of pupils to other schools. There were 740 primary schools with a population of 127,861 pupils with boys comprising of 66,419 and girls 61,442 compared to the previous term of 128,003 with boys being 66,476 and girls at 61,527. The decline (0.1 percent) in enrolment was attributed to delayed school meals program, interintra county transfers, teen pregnancies, child labor among other reasons. In secondary schools, there were 189 schools with a combined enrolment of 54,384 students with boys being 27,688 and girls at 26,689 in the current term compared to the previous term of 53,861 with boys being 27,075 and girls at 26,786. The positive deviation in enrolment (one percent) was attributed to the 100 percent transition government policy, new admissions, availability of school meals programs, availability of bursaries and scholarships. Enrolment in Junior secondary schools was stable in comparison to the previous term. There were cases of dropouts in ECDE whereby a total of 107 children (71 boys and 36 girls) dropped out due to nomadism. In primary schools, a total of 142 students (57 boys and 85 girls) dropped out which was attributed to psychological trauma, child labour, insecurityviolence, nomadism, chronic illness, truancy and teen pregnancies. Whereas there was an increase in enrollment in secondary schools, some schools in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo South and Baringo North sub counties experienced dropout and absenteeism due to lack of school fees, insecurities, pregnanciesearly marriage, transfers, lack of school fees, indulgence into boda boda business among other reasons. Note: There are 534 public Junior Secondary School JSS domiciled in primary schools totaling with total enrolment of 15,602 comprising of 8,109 boys and 7,493 girls. 3.5.2 Water availability in schools during the season The main water sources for schools in the county were boreholes, rivers, water bowsers, rain water harvesting and water pans. The number of schools with no access to safe water sources were 620 ECDE centers, 486 primary schools and 35 secondary schools. There were 678 ECDE, 468 primary schools 154 secondary schools with functional rain-water harvesting infrastructure and some of them applied chlorine to treat water. 3.5.3 Effect of the season on school infrastructure There was no closure of schools due to the effects of the long rains and none of the school infrastructure was damaged during the review period. None of the schools was hosting any IDP camps during the season under review. 3.5.4 Inter sector links During the season under review, a number of students were affected by upper respiratory infections and were treated by health personnel. The students also benefitted from deworming and vitamin A supplementation from the Ministry of health. The number of schools with inadequate functional latrines were 30 ECDE, 30 primary schools and five secondary schools and number of schools with inadequate or no hand-washing facilities were 30 ECDE, 30 primary schools and three secondary schools. Girls received sanitary kits during the second term which were issued by the Government. There were cases of child labour prevalent among the vulnerable groups and occasional cases of sexual exploitation and gender-based violence. 3.6 Child protection Baringo is one of the counties that experienced prolonged drought. As a measure to ensure the protection and response to child protection issues during emergencies questionnaires were provided to collect qualitative data on the effects of drought to children and the kind of child protection issues that emerged as a result of the drought. The data was collected by Child Protection Volunteers for the two days of field assessment the CPVs covered five out of the seven sub counties. They were able to cover Baringo North, Marigat, Tiaty East, Mogotio and Baringo Central to establishing the effects of drought to children and the child protection concerns that emerged. Child migration Out of one hundred and seventy (170) persons interviewed; 60 reported migration due to insecurity while 30and 10 reported famine and poverty. The children in this category moved out of Baringo County with their parents due sever consequence of drought. Most children who migrated from the county went to the following counties; Nakuru, Laikipia, Uasin gishu, Nairobi Family separation When analysis was done for status of separated children, 65 of the respondents are of the opinion that children are separated from their parent due to lack of food and other basic needs. 20 of the respondent reported separation necessitated by abuses and harsh environment at home. Child marriage and lack of parental support has been indicated by 15 by those who were interviewed. However, no cases of refugee children were reported Violence against children, GBV Due to drought there were cases of violence against children that were reported that included Sexual violence, Neglect cases, psychosocial violence, Child trafficking, corporal punishment and child labor.; Incidences of children and women engaging in transactional sex for commodities like food, sanitary pads and water was reported by 48 of the respondent. Sub counties affected by transactional sex of children and women were; Marigat, Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North. Child marriage The drought situation has contributed to incidence of child marriage. Besides challenges associated with drought, some of the factors that aggravated child marriage are; neglect by parents and caregivers, orphan hood, poverty, teenage pregnancies that forced most of the girls to in fall into marriage. In all the five sub-counties where the survey took place, child marriage was reported Teenage pregnancies Teenage pregnancies incidences were also cited in the data collection exercise. 52 girls 10-14 years and 946 girls 15-19 years have been recorded as teenage pregnancy cases. Girls would lack provision of basic needs and engage in sex to obtain essential items like pads, sex for food and money. Other reasons cited was poverty, school dropout that was worsened by drought and girls engaging in unprotected sex. All the five sub-counties reported teenage pregnancies which has been associated with peer pressure, poverty and absence of parental guidance. Children with disability Associated with taboo and other cultural stigmatization, Parents have a tendency of hiding children with disability making it difficult to provide for interventions for them. These children have difficulties in interacting and socializing with other children. Special needs children requiring specialized care have been reported.in all the sub-counties. They experience neglect, stigma and lack of education. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions According to the County Meteorological department, the June-July-August (JJA) rains will be near normal with the peak being experienced in August According to FEWSNET forecast, there is a possibility of above average October to December short rains in the county which may result to isolated incidents in flood prone areas. Market prices for livestock are expected to improve due to the expected improvement in livestock body condition while cereal market is likely to come down due to the expected crop harvest both within and outside the county. Forage conditions are expected to improve fairly as a result of the expected JJA rains. Additional feed supplements are likely to be realized from crop residues of the harvested and failed crops in the Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming livelihood zones Livestock body condition for cattle and other livestock species will stabilize due to the expected stability in forage conditions across livelihood zones Water access and availability will continue to be below normal but may improve towards the end of August if the JJA rains performs well. Household food stocks will improve fairly in the Mixed farming, Irrigated Cropping and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood as farmers are expected to have a modest crop harvest. Resource based conflict will be minimal for the next three months The country will have political stability that enhances limited disruption of movement of goods and services. 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six months August-September-October Food consumption gaps are expected to decline particularly in the Mixed farming, Irrigated cropping and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones where farmers are likely to have modest crop harvest. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, access to cereals will improve due to the expected price reduction of cereals. On the other hand, range land conditions are expected to remain fair to good hence resulting in improved pastures and browse availability. Moreover, livestock will greatly benefit from crop residues resulting from the harvested crops and the failed crops hence resulting in improved livestock productivity especially in the Mixed farming, Irrigated cropping and parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. There will be marginal improvement in milk production which might see milk prices declining slightly. Household herd size will remain the same as birth rates are not expected to change much. Market operations are expected to remain normal with livestock prices improving gradually while cereal prices will decline slightly following the expected completion of crop harvest. Terms of trade are therefore expected to improve mostly for the Pastoral households. Water access and availability will remain fair as the JJA rains are expected to provide limited recharge to water sources. The trekking distances to water points are therefore expected to remain within the seasonal range while waiting time at water sources will remain normal. Water consumption at the household level will remain normal to above normal across all livelihood zones while cost of water will remain normal. Water quality will remain fair due to the expected limited recharge of water sources by the JJA rains. Dietary diversity is expected to improve due to readily available green vegetables and fruits which are mostly being sourced from within the county. In the Pastoral areas, access to a variety of food stuff including vegetables and fruits will improve due to the expected drop in their market prices. Households are expected to reduce adoption of severe coping strategies as a means of accessing food due to the expected marginal improvement in food availability and reduced cereal prices. Malnutrition cases are expected to remain slightly above normal but stable due to the ongoing interventions. November-December-January The short rains season of October-December are expected to compliment the food security gains made from the long rains. Trekking distances to watering points for both humans and livestock are expected to stabilize and remain within the seasonal range. Forage conditions are most likely to remain fairly stable, a factor that is likely to sustain livestock productivity in terms of body condition, carcass weight, milk production among others. Limited recharge of rivers will likely take place hence benefitting irrigated agriculture to some extent. Market operations are expected to remain normal with stability of food commodity prices being experienced. Livestock prices are expected to be normal to above normal due to the expected improvement in livestock body condition. Food consumption will be much better due to availability of cereal and pulses stocks at the household level. In the Pastoral zone, its expected that the prices of food commodities will have come down and therefore access to food items in the markets will improve due to the enhanced terms of trade. Malnutrition cases are expected to decline marginally due to the impact of having consumed milk and other food stuffs. 5.0 CONCLUSSIONS AND RECCOMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall county IPC phase was in phase two (Stressed). Pastoral livelihood zone was in phase three while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone was in phase two (Stressed). The Irrigated livelihood zone was in phase one (NoneMinimal). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The county had acceptable food consumption score at 38 percent, although the Pastoral livelihood zone had the highest proportion of households not having acceptable food consumption during the period under review with eight percent and 57 percent of the sampled households having poor and borderline food consumption score by June. On consumption based coping strategies (rCSI), about 39 percent, 24 percent and 37 percent of the sampled households were applying none, stressed and crisis strategies respectively by June. On livelihood coping, about zero, 21, 32 and 46 percent of the sampled households in June had emergency, stressed, crisis and no coping strategies. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was 22 percent by June which was above LTA by 25 5.1.3 Sub County ranking Sub County Rank (Worst to Main food security threatContributing factors best) Tiaty (East and West) 1 High malnutrition, Invasive species, Low latrine Livestock diseases, coverage, PPR, Poor rainfall Poor dietary, distribution, High food prices, insecurity, Less vibrant livestock feeder markets Baringo North 2 Insecurity, Poor rainfall Crop failure, distribution, Crop paste High food prices, diseases, Wrong choice of crop enterprises, Livestock Diseases Mogotio 3 Crop failure, Poor rainfall distribution, Reduced river flows Baringo South 4 Poor rainfall Invasive species distribution, (Prosopis juliflora), Insecurity Water- borne diseases Baringo Central 5 Better rains, Good crop condition Eldama Ravine 6 Better Rains, Good crop condition 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions Through the office of the County Commissioner, the County received a total 24,080 bags of rice (50kg) and 14,000 bags of beans (50kg) for the period of March-June which was distributed to the vulnerable populations in all the sub counties except Ravine. Kenya Red cross society distributed relief food to 2,000 households in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa, Kolowa, Loyamorok, and Silale areas. NDMA distributed about 2000 food hampers in June with assorted food stuff that comprised of uji mix, maize flour, green grams, rice, cooking fat and salt. World Food Program is targeting 4,828 Households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program (Phase two). Each household will receive KSh 11,200. The program is an extension of cash transfer that targeted 2,778 households in phase one. The program runs from March to August 2023. About 2,778 households are targeted under the 1st phase received 11,200 during the month (totaling to KSh. 31,113,600 while the 2,050 are still on pipeline. Large Cash Transfer project for Livelihood recovery by Give Directly partner ongoing in Sabor and Endao sub locations. Once recruitment is accomplished then each household will receive KSh. 110,000 disbursed in 3 tranches of KSh. 20,000, 45,000, 45,000. 5.2.2 None food interventions Sub Intervention Ward No. of Implemente Impacts in Cost Time County beneficiari rs terms of food Frame es security Countywi Resilient Saimo Soi, 9,725 County Restoration 67 M Novembe de building Bartabwa Government and r 2020- program to Sacho, , of Baringo, rehabilitation Decembe households ChuroAma ELRP of livelihoods r 2024 ya, , destroyed by Mochongoi, DL Kolowa, Ilchamus Kisanana ALL Affruitation ALL 20000 County Increased 30 2022- program Government area under million 2023 of Baringo fruits cover environmenta l conservation and food security Baringo Promotion of Kapropita, 10000 KCSAP Improved 300m 2018- Central, climate smart Tenges, adaptation to Sept Mogotio, Agriculture Mogotio, climate 2023 Eldama interventions Emining, change Ravine Koibatek, L.Perkerra ALL Agrinutrition ALL 12000 DRLSP, Improve 100 July support FAO, household Million 2022- County food security Decembe Government r 2023 ALL Promotion of Marigat, 25 County Improve 10 2023- farmer service Mogotio, Government access to Million 2024 centres Kabarnet, and WFP inputs by Kabartonjo, farmers and Eldama promote Ravine enterpreneurs ALL Nutrition ALL 25,000 WFP, SHA, Increased 300 M 2020- Sensitive and County household 2024 Food Government food nutrition Utilization of Baringo, and stability initiatives DRLSP, in food KCSAP, security National Government All sub- Capacity 1,000HH BCG(MOA Well Infirmed 1M Througho counties building of LF) staff and ut Farmers and farmers for staff. best practices Mogotio Construction 200HH BCGDRLS Improved 5M MARCH- of livestock P pasture SEPT feed store conservation 2023 Water Institutions 10 BCG, 50,000 On On going trucking Institutions going BHs 380HH BCG, NG, 10M On On going rehabilitation KRCS, going PVC Tanks 28 NDMA 0.45M Partially Installations SHA Save Partially Complete Pre- the Children Comple positioning te Construction 1560HH BCG, NG, 46M 1year On going of New water Projects Rehabilitation 2320 HH BCG, NG, 25 M 1 Year On going of BHs RCS, WV Drilling and 2620 HH BCG, NG, 20M 1 Year On going Equipping of Capacity 2130 HH BCG, NG, 4.5M 1 Year On going building on RCS, WV, Sustainable UNCEF, water management Sustain Mass 150 3.5M screening and facilities in referrals the County Provision of County 28M supplements Integrated 120 hot 2.0M KSH outreach spots and 1,873,2 services hard to 50 reach sites in 7 sub SMART County 5.0 M MOH, Survey UNICE North, provide fire primary i.e one y East , M meals in ogotio, schools Baringo Purchase of 29 primary Ministry of 3 months Central food stuff schools education i. e one from nearby term counties of Ministry of Uasin gishu interior and Koibatek, and Nakuru, national Baringo coordination Central Provision of 192 relief food by primary Education national, schools partners eg county red cross and education partners North, provide fire primary i.e. one y East , meals in Mogotio, schools Child protection Baringo 10,000 DCS Quarterly North managem County Marigat 9,000 DCS Quarterly Tiaty East 9,000 DCS Quarterly Mogotio 8,500 DCS Quarterly Baringo 12,000 DCS Quarterly Central County Koibatek 8,000 DCS Tiaty 8,000 DCS Quarterly 5.3. Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Sub 2023 LRA Population Estimated Wards Estimated County Food proportion in proportion in security need of need of immediate rank immediate food food assistance (Worst to assistance () () Per Ward best) per sub county Tiaty 2 73,424 35,000 (48) Silale 40-50 Loiyamorok 40-45 TangulbeiKorossi 20-30 ChuroAmaya 20-25 Tiaty East 2 79,923 25,000 (31) Tirioko 40-45 Kolowa 30-40 Ribkwo 30-40 Baringo 3 104,871 20,000 (19) Barwessa 20-30 SaimoKipsaraman 5-10 SaimoSoi 40-45 Kabartonjo 0-5 Bartabwa 40-45 Mogotio 4 91,104 10,000 (11) Mogotio 10-15 Emining 25-30 Kisanana 25-30 Baringo 5 90,104 10,000 (11) Mukutani 30-40 South Marigat 25-30 Ilchamus 20-25 Mochongoi 15-20 Baringo 6 96,951 5,000 (5) Kabarnet (salawa) 5-10 Central (Parts of Tenges, Sacho 5-10 Kabarnet, Sacho Tenges 5-10 and Kapropita Kapropita 5-10 wards) Ewalel Chapchap 0-5 Eldama 7 129,535 Lembus 0-5 Ravine 5000 (4) Ravine 0-5 Lembus Kwen Koibatek 0-5 Lembus Perkerra 0-5 Mumberesmaji mazuri 0-5 Total population in need of food assistance 110,000 5.3.2 None food interventions Sub County Intervention Ward No. of Proposed Requi Available Time beneficiarie Implementers red Resource Frame s Resou s All Agri nutrition all 10000 National Financ Staff 2023- support Government, es 2024 County (Kshs 1. Purchase and Government 200 and FAO, millio Traditional WFP, ELRP, n) high value crops. 2. Construction of farm ponds 3. Supply of drip kits and multi-storey gardens and vegetable seeds ALL Value addition of Mogoti 2000 WFP and 56M Staff, 2020- produce cereals o, County Groups 2024 (Maize, Sorghum Mariga Government of identified and Millet) t Baringo for through milling Tenges support and fortification of flour and Market linkages ALL Crops Post- 10000 National Financ Staff 2023- harvest Government, es 2024 management County (Kshs Government, 20 Construction and Millio of cereal stores Purchase and development distribution of partners hermetic bags Purchase and solar BNorth, Vaccinations 100,000 BCG, FAO 5M July Mogotio against LSD, Cattle, and other Dec. Tiaty CCPP and PPR Development 2023 270,000 (LSD, partners Deworming goats CCPP) Disease 50,000 Tiaty, surveillance Sheep BNorth .4M (LSD) -Baringo Establishment of 4,500HH MOALF 90 M July,2023 North strategic livestock -Dec feed reserves; 12 2023 -Tiaty(E across 6 sub- NDMA(EU) -Baringo - Mogotio Loruk, RenovationConst 13,000HH BCG, Partners 50M July,2023 Amaya, ruction of -Dec Nginyang livestock Auction 2023 and Kolloa yards All sub- Provisiojn of 5000HH BCGPartners 5M July,2023 counties pasture seeds -Dec All sub- Employment of 6,000HHs BCG 100M Continuo counties addition extension us staff to replace retirees Countywide 18 No. BH Comm 3580HH BCG, NG, 120M 10M 1- 6 Water Supply unity KRCS, WV, months Rehabilitation WS in UNCEF, upgrading pastora ACTED, Servicing and l and USAID, replacement of agro- NDMA, SHA, pumping units pastora Save the l Children livelih Roof Water Institut 150 BCG, NG, 15M - 1- 6 harvesting ions Institutions KRCS, WV, months structures Comm UNCEF, unities ACTED, in USAID, Pastora NDMA, l and SHA, CHILD Agro- Fund, Pastora Stock piling of Comm 1,260 HHs BCG, NG, 300,000 1- 6 Fast-Moving unity KRCS, WV, months Spares 24 No. WS in UNCEF, community water Pastora NDMA ASAL areas supplies l and agro- pastora Capacity Water 30 No. BCG, NG, 10 M 1- 6 Strengthening on supplie Community KRCS, WV, months WASH s in Water UNCEF, Sustainable Water Pastora supplies ACTED, Management and l and ACTION AID, Catchment Agro- USAID, protection Pastora NDMA Supply of Water pastora 3,000HHs BCG, NG, 6 M - 1 -6 treatment l and KRCS, WV, Months equipments like agro UNCEF, water purifiers, pastora ACTED, Pur, Aqua tabs etc l Zones ACTION AID, USAID, Water Whole Baringo BCG, NG, 3 M - 1 -6 Governance and County County KRCS, WV, Months Management Water UNCEF, ACTED, Policy Resources ACTION AID, development Users USAID, NEMA, WRMA, NDMA, WFP, Drilling and pastora 1,900HH BCG, NG, 120M 10 M 1 - 5 yrs Equipping of l and RCS, WV, strategic 18 No. agro UNCEF, BHs along pastora NDMA migratory routes l Zones and settlement areas Construction and pastora 1800HH BCG, NG, 200M 1 5 yrs Upgrading of 16 l and RCS, WV, No. potential Low agro UNCEF, Cost Water pastora NDMA, CIM, Supplies l Zones WFP Construction of 4 pastora 2400HH BCG, NG, 800M 1 -5Yrs No. Small dams l and RCS, WV, for domestic and agro UNCEF, irrigation water pastora NDMA use l Zones Desilting of pastora 3900HH BCG, NG, 500M 1 -5Yrs Intakes , Water l and RCS, WV, Pans and Dams agro UNCEF, pastora NDMA Capacity pastora 50 No. BCG, NG, 50 M 1 - 5Yrs Strengthening on l and Water RCS, WV, Wash Sustainable agro Supplies UNCEF, Water pastora NDMA, CIM, Management l Zones WFP Resources Mobilization Conflict Resolution and Management and All sub- Vitamin A 90,449 MOH 0.5M July - Dec (children 6 months) All sub Zinc 20,000 MOH July-Dec All Sub Management of 8,971 under MOH 28M July-Dec counties Acute five children 2023 Malnutrition (IMAM) Sub Capacity Building Children 0- KRCMOH 1.2 M July Dec Counties on MIYCN- E 23 months 2023 prone to Pregnant disasters and Lactating Mothers All sub IYCN 41,533 MOH 4.1 M July-Dec counties Interventions 2023 Children (EBF and Timely birth 2 Intro of years complementary Foods) Hot sport Integrated Population BCGKRC and 20.0 M July- Dec Areas outreaches in the hard UNICEFWFP 2023 to reach hot sport area All sub Iron Folate 34576 MOH 5.35M July-Dec counties Supplementation 2022 All pregnant among Pregnant women Women All sub Deworming 83,066 1.66M July-Dec counties children 1 2022 5 years Marigat,Tiat OF food stores in 519 schools education Food y East, Tiaty schools partners, stores West, county 1,000,0 Baringo Proper roads government, 00 519 North maintenance parents 519,000 million Roads quantity and civil enginee estimate",
            "Baringo_LRA_2022.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2022 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), July 2022 The 2022 long rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) and supported remotely by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the long rains of 2022. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were applied to carry out the situation analysis. The onset of the long rains was late in the second dekad of April against a normal of second dekad of March and it was characterized by uneven spatial and poor temporal distribution while cessation was normal in the last dekad of May. Area under rainfed maize production was near normal but the projected yield is expected to be 60 percent of long-term average (LTA) due to poor rainfall performance, crop pest infestation, crop failure and high cost of farm inputs. Household stocks are at 29 percent of LTA and only available in Eldama Ravine sub-county and expected to last for less than two months. Area under irrigated agriculture was above LTA and therefore the projected yield will be above normal for most of the crops but the potential yield vis a vis the prepared acreage will not be realized due to reduced water flow in the rivers. Forage conditions are in poor to fair conditions in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones and expected to last for two to three months while livestock body condition for cattle is poor to fair. Most of the cattle in the Pastoral livelihood zone are yet to return to their normal wet season grazing fields due to poor pasture conditions. Milk production and consumption is still below LTA but showing marginal signs of recovery. In Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones, there was above normal livestock mortality rate of 3-5 percent for cattle at the start of the season due to drought impacts, against a normal of less than two percent. Market operations were mainly normal but characterized by very high food prices especially for maize while livestock prices for cattle were below LTA but near normal for goats and sheep. Terms of trade have been on a deteriorating trend and stood at 29 percent by June thus weakening purchasing power for Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. The most common sources of water were boreholes and water pans in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones while rivers, shallow wells and water springs were the most common in other livelihood zones. Most of the water pans had 20-30 percent of their normal capacity in Pastoral zone and 40-50 percent in Agro- Pastoral zone. The cost of water at water source was normal but waiting time and household water consumption were below LTA but on an improving trend. A significant proportion of households in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones do not have acceptable food consumption score at 56 and 37 percent respectively while households applying food based coping strategies (rCSI) were 39, 24 and 37 percent for none coping, stressed and crisis respectively. For livelihood coping strategies, about 46 percent of households did not apply any coping while 32 and 22 percent had stressed and crisis strategies. There was a marginal increase in enrolment of learners across all levels of education compared to the previous term by 17, 2.5 and 2.0 percent for ECDE, primary and secondary levels respectively. For school feeding program, about 87 and 68 percent of learners in ECDE and primary schools were under schools meals programs respectively. The overall county IPC phase classification is in phase 3 (Crisis). The Pastoral, Marginal mixed and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones are in IPC phase 3 (Crisis), while the Irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones are in phase 1 (NoneMinimal). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... i 3.1.1 Crops production .......................................................................................................................... 4 3.1.2 Cereal stocks ................................................................................................................................ 6 3.1.3 Livestock production.................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.4 Impact on availability................................................................................................................. 12 3.2.1 Market operations ...................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.2 Market Prices ............................................................................................................................. 13 3.2.3 Terms of trade ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.4 Income sources ........................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.5 Water access and availability ..................................................................................................... 15 3.2.6 Food consumption ...................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.7 Coping strategy .......................................................................................................................... 18 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ............................................................................................... 19 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation ......................................................................... 20 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity ......................................................................................... 21 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene ............................................................................................................... 22 3.5.1 Access (Enrolment) .................................................................................................................... 24 3.5.2 Food availability in schools during the season .......................................................................... 25 3.5.3 Water availability in schools during the season ......................................................................... 25 3.5.4 Effect of the season on school infrastructure ............................................................................. 26 3.5.4 Inter sector links ......................................................................................................................... 26 5.1.1 Phase classification .................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.2 Summary of findings .................................................................................................................. 28 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking .................................................................................................................... 29 5.2.1 Food interventions...................................................................................................................... 30 5.2.2 Non-food interventions .............................................................................................................. 30 5.3.1 Food interventions...................................................................................................................... 33 5.3.2 Non-food interventions .............................................................................................................. 34 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Others Baringo County borders Pastoral 1 Turkana and Samburu livelihood Irrigated crop zone Counties to the North, 4 29 Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The county covers Mixed Agropastoral an approximate area of Farming 14 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Figure 1: Livelihood populations Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) Sub-counties, namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the Irrigated cropping and the Mixed farming livelihood zones. 1.2 Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2022 Long Rains Food and Nutrition Security Assessment (LRA) was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2022 long rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment was aimed at ascertaining at livelihood level, the quantity and quality of the 2022 long rains and assess the impact of the season on food and nutrition security situation, obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs, assess the geographical spread of other hazards and determine the impact of the shocks on livelihoods. The exercise further assessed the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutrition status and socio-economic conditions, take stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programs that promote preparedness and build household resilience and finally to assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2022 long rains assessment exercise was conducted by a multi-sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 4th to 15th July 2022. The process started with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tools. The team finally drafted the county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The onset of the long rains season was late compared to the previous seasons and was observed during the second dekad of April against a normal of second dekad of March. The amount received was mostly below normal in most parts of the county translating to about 79-90 percent of the normal rains for the season (Figure 2). Parts of Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub- counties received about 51-75 percent of the normal rains. Only ChuroAmaya ward in Tiaty sub-county received normal rains for the season under review. The distribution in time was poor with about 42 percent of the total amount of rains for the season being received during the third dekad of April while spatial distribution was uneven. The cessation of the season was normal during the third dekad of May. The county has also experienced some off-season rains mostly during the month of July with fair temporal and even spatial distribution. Figure 2: Rainfall performance 2.2 InsecurityConflict During the season under review, the county did experience sporadic cases of banditry attacks mostly in Baringo South and Baringo North sub-counties. The affected wards include SaimoSoi, Bartabwa, Muchongoi and part of Kollowa (Kipnai) whereby about 4,000 households were affected. These banditry attacks affected land preparatory activities including digging and planting due to displacement and tension. The national government has imposed a dawn to dusk curfew in Tiaty sub-county in an effort to restore peace. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Shocks Crop failure A number of farms are likely to report crop failure across the county due to poor performance of the season whereby the most affected crop was beans. High food commodity prices Cereal prices were extremely high especially for maize crop whereby the prices increased by over 100 percent compared to the long-term mean (LTA). Prices of other food stuff including fruits and vegetables were also very high thus posing access challenges. Hazards Crop pests African Army Worms There was an invasion African army worms during the mid-season affecting about 10 percent of the farms. However, the pests are disappearing slowly due to the impact of the off-season rains. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crops production The long rains season is very important for food and nutrition security as the county heavily depends on it for the production of various crops and recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes, contributing to over 90 percent of the county annual food requirements. In the year 2022 the County received below normal rains which affected land preparation and planting for crops. Most of the farmers did not plant during the season and this reduced the area under rain fed crop farming, for instance, area under maize and beans was 96 and 78 percent respectively of their LTA achievement. Table 1 shows main food crops grown in the County which include maize, beans, millets, Irish potatoes, cowpeas and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (Fruits and vegetables) and Cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum). Table 1 : Contribution of crops to income and food Livelihood Crop Income Food Agro-Pastoral Maize 10 90 Beans 15 85 Finger millet 40 60 Cowpeas 40 60 Mixed Maize 40 60 Beans 40 60 Finger millet 30 70 Irrigated Maize 80 20 Tomatoes 90 10 Water melons 90 10 Rain fed agriculture The area planted during the current season with maize was near normal at 96 percent of the LTA (Table 2) and this is due to depressed season, the most affected sub-counties being Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Eldama Ravine and Tiaty. The crops were showing signs of water stress in all lower areas of the county that might end up into crop failure but along Tugen hills and upper parts of Eldama Ravine there was a good crop There were reported cases of infestation by field pests whereby about 21 percent of the area planted was affected by the African army worms across the county and the dry spells that occurred within the season created a favorable condition for the multiplication of the pest. The projected production for maize is expected to be about 60 percent of the LTA in the county and this was contributed by crop failure in county estimated to be at 56 percent. The estimated crop failure rates are 35, 80, 65, 55, and 70 percent for Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, and Baringo South sub counties respectively while 55 percent of the crops in the irrigated areas is likely to fail. The area under sorghum decreased by 13 percent due to delayed onset of the season. The crops conditions are poor to fair due to moisture stress and even though the county has received some off-season rains, some of these crops will not be able to recover. In a normal year by now most of the maize crop would be in milkygrain filling stage and beans at harvesting stage, but this year most of the crops are at vegetative stage whereby they are being affected by moisture stress leading to wilting. Table 2: Rainfed agriculture Crop Area planted Long Term 2022 Long rains Long Term during 2022 Average (5 year) season production Average (5 year) Long rains area planted during (90 kg bags) production during season the long rains season ProjectedActual the long rains (Ha) (Ha) season (90 kg bags) 1. Maize 39,640 41,133 594,600 1,028,325 2. Beans 17,650 22,505 264,750 450,100 3. Sorghum 1,580 1,800 1,300 18,000 4. Irish Potatoes 2,000 1,289 156,750 13,020 Irrigated crop production The area under maize was above the LTA by 640 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most farmers who were able to access irrigation water opted to plant maize in the schemes and by pumping water from rivers (Table 3). This was mainly done in three sub-counties where there was expansion in acreage under irrigation namely Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The area under seed maize also increased as more schemes were brought on board in seed production like Loboi Lorwai and Mosuro irrigation schemes in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. In other irrigation schemes there was decreased river water flow which was caused by depressed rains hence 55 percent crop failure is likely to be realized. Most of the crops in irrigation schemes are for income generation especially seed maize, water melons and tomatoes. About 20 to 40 percent of the prepared acreage under irrigation was not utilized due to low water volumes in the rivers. Table 3:Irrigated agriculture Crop Area planted Long Term 2022 Long rains Long Term Average during the 2022 Average (3 years) season (3 years) production Long rains area planted production during Long rains season during Long rains (90 kg bagsMT) season (ha) season (ha) Projectedactual (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 320 50 8,000 1,500 Beans 25 24 375 480 Tomatoes 86 119 1,820 1,235 Water melons 32 85 480 1700 Seed Maize 3,500 1,524 78,052 155,150 3.1.2 Cereal stocks Table 4: Cereal stocks Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Green grams Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Households 84,654 290,864 296 468 245 620 Traders 98,645 34,928 3,087 1,056 336 324 280 150 Millers 22,400 8,382 Food 8 3 AidNCPB Totals 205,699 334,174 3,095 1,059 632 794 525 770 Households The stocks held by households was 29 percent of the LTA (Table 4) and this was due to the poor harvest realized last year and over the other preceding years. The bulk of the stock is in Eldama Ravine sub-county at 45 percent whereby they didnt have avenue for their stock disposal such as National Cereal and Produce Board but with high prices currently the farmers are releasing them to the markets. Most farmers in other areas depleted their stocks as they bought inputs in preparation for the long rains season. Traders The traders also had their stock above the LTA at 282 percent due to anticipated crop failure and prevailing high prices, following the poor performance of the long rains season. In the affected areas, price of cereals has gone up thus straining the families economically. About 80 percent of the households depend on the markets for their food supply and are mostly to be found in Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones. The increase in food prices has also influenced the increase in stocks by traders as compared to last year when the prices were relatively normal. Millers Millers stocks are above LTA at 267 percent and this was due to the fact that most households were purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (Posho Millers). The looming crop failure plus increase in cereal prices also contributed to the high stocks being held. Traders and millers have more stocks in the Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest but for now the available stocks may last for one month in the Mixed farming livelihood zone while in Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones there are no stock due to poor harvest. The county has not experienced food safety issues that include aflatoxin and high moisture content levels. 3.1.3 Livestock production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The long rains in Baringo County are very important for pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by-products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are important as conserved feeds for future use. These by-products are important for their utilization during dry periods and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards in the county. Currently, the hazards affecting the sector include; under-performance of long rains, resulting to poor pastures and browse, insecurity and livestock diseases. Table 5 shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone Percent contribution Food Income Mixed farming 25 30 Irrigated cropping 35 15 Agro-Pastoral 50 50 Pastoral 70 85 Pasture and browse conditions Forage conditions were below the expected level, in both quantity and quality, and this was attributed to poor performance of four consecutive rainfall seasons. The pastures were expected to last for 1.5 months, in both Mixed and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and one month in the Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones (Table 6). Browse was in fair to good condition across the livelihood zones. Some invasive species are present in the Pastoral livelihood particularly in Tiaty West sub-county. Factors limiting forage access were insecurity tensions around Saimosoi and Bartabwa wards, Arabal area in Baringo South sub county and Kapedo areas bordering Turkana County. African Army Worm invasion was reported in the county affecting crops, which would have later provided feeds as agricultural by-products. The worms also affected germination and sprouting of pastures hence reducing their development. Table 6: Pasture and browse conditions Liveliho Pasture Browse od Zone Condition Projected Factor Condition Projected Factor Duration to s Duration to s last (Months) limitin last (month) limitin access access Curre Norm Curre Norm Curre Norm Curre Norm nt al nt al nt al nt al Mixed Fair to Good 1.5 3 No Fair to Good 2 3 No farming good limit good limit Irrigated Fair to Good 1.5 3 No Fair to Good 2 3 No cropping good limit good limits Agro- Fair Good 1 3 No Fair to Good 1.5 3 No Pastoral limit good limit Pastoral Poor Good 1 3 Insecur Fair to Good 1.5 3 Insecur ity good ity tension tension Pasture Conservation: Table 7 shows the pasture conservation status in the county. The existing bales are extremely below the holding capacity of the county stores and what was being consumed during the season was mostly imported from outside the county as internal production declined significantly due to poor rainfall performance. There is Mogotio Livestock Improvement Centre which has hay balers and does services to the farmers in hay baling. The quantity of crop residues as forage will decline due to expected poor crop performance, whereby more than 50 percent of the crop will fail at a young stage which will not be sufficient to compensate for the normal residues realized during harvesting time. Table 7: Baled hay status Livelihood No. of Storage No. of Average Average Comments E.g. Zone Hay Capacity Bales Weight price per percentage held by Stores (Total currently per bale bale farmers and other number being held (in Kgs) (Kshs.) Institutions of bales) Baringo 20 10,500 2,500 15 400 2 are held by KVDA South 88 Held by farmers Baringo 10 20,000 3,000 15 350 30 by farmers and 70 Central by Association. ERavine 30 600,000 130,000 15 350 80 by farmers 10 FCS 10 by groups Tiaty 0 0 0 0 0 NA Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo 25 280,000 4,520 15 350 100 by farmers from North community stores and traders Mogotio 8 570,000 120,000 15 350 75 By farmer groups 25 by individuals Livestock productivity Livestock body condition Table 8: Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 farming 4 4 NA NA Irrigated BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 cropping 4 4 Agro- BCS 3 BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 3 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 Pastoral 3 4 Pastoral BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 2 to BCS 4 BCS 4 BCS 4 3 3 3 (NB: LCS 1 Very Poor-Very thin, LCS 2Poor, LCS 3Fair, LCS 4 Good, LCS 5 Very Good) The livestock body condition slightly improved compared with the previous assessment. The improvement was attributed to gradual improvement of the contributing factors such as forage, water, trekking distance and decline of disease occurrences. The body condition was expected to improve further if rainfall performance improves. COVID-19 has not been reported as having affected Livestock and hence has no effect on livestock body condition. Table 8 shows livestock body condition score by livelihood zones. Tropical livestock unit (LTU) Table 9: Tropical livestock unit Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Mixed Farming 2.8 3 5.8 6.5 Irrigated cropping 3.2 3.5 5.3 7.5 Agro-Pastoral 3.8 5.2 7.5 9 Pastoral 6.2 6.3 9.8 13 Average 4.0 4.5 7.1 9 The average TLUs in poor income households were 4.0 against a normal of 4.5 while in medium income households average TLUs were 7.1 against a normal of 9. Compared to the last assessment, the TLUs for both poor and medium income households declined slightly and this was mainly attributed to the above normal livestock mortality rates during the drought period observed at the beginning of the year. Birth rate The calving, kidding and lambing rates were below normal at 2.5 percent and this was attributed to deterioration of forage conditions. The poor rainfall performance affected all contributing factors including, good nutrition, and increased trekking distance to water points. The calving, kidding and lambing rates depend on status of pastures across all livelihood zones during conception period. Milk Production and consumption The prices of milk went up as a result of decrease in supply, which emanated from decline in production (Table 10). Consumption was also lower than the normal. The low milk production was attributed to deterioration in forage conditions both in quantity and quality whereby this was due to poor rainfall performance. Table 10: Milk production Livelihood zone Milk production per Milk consumption per Prices (KES) household (Lts) household (Lts) Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed farming 4 8 1.8 3 75 40 Irrigated cropping 3 8 0.7 2.5 75 45 Agro-Pastoral 2.8 4 1.0 3 75 50 Pastoral 1.0 3 0.5 4 90 60 Livestock migration During the season under review, there were above normal livestock migration between the months of March and April at the peak of the drought that was being witnessed in the county. The migrations were triggered by search for pastures which have been in poor condition or depleted for some time. Others were also due to insecurity. The migratory routes included ChuroAmaya in Laikipia County, KolloaTirioko in West Pokot-UgandaTurkanaLupeitonLokorin areas, Silale- Malaso at Turkana County border, Kasarani, Tangulbei-LaikipiaMochongoiBeyong Malaso (MoruakirinMarti), Barketiew-Kerio Valley, Barwessa. Sibilo and Mogotio in Rongai sub- county. After the onset of the long rains, all county livestock started normal migrations which were internal. Projected trend of Migration Most of the cattle are yet to return to their normal wet grazing fields in the Pastoral zone due to the poor conditions of the pastures. If the off-season rains are not sustained, then pasture recovery may not be realized and therefore trigger another phase of livestock migration within and outside the county. The migratory routes are likely to be the same as the above ones. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Livestock diseases The main endemic diseases in the county were Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP) and Peste des Petit Ruminants (PPR) (Table 11). Other disease cases for Lumpy Skin Disease and Foot Mouth Disease were reported. Vaccination against LSD, CCPP was done in Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub-counties. Deworming was also done in the county with funding from FAO. According to the county assessment report, about 16,873 cattle succumbed to drought impacts during the period under review, raising the mortality rate to 3.5-5 percent against a normal of two percent. Most of these deaths were reported in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones, especially in Tiaty and Mogotio sub-counties. Table 11: Livestock diseases Sub- Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures county lost taken(Vaccinations) Baringo CCPP Endemic Goats No Vaccinations Central livestock PPR Salawa, Kaptara Cattleshoats Vaccinations ECF Kapkelelwa Cattle Vaccinations reported Tiaty CCPP Sub-county wise Goats NR Ring vaccination done PPR Sub-county wise Sheep and NR Ring vaccination done goats Eldama FMD Koibatek, Lembus Cattle Suspected 7,000 vaccinated Ravine Pekerra Baringo Goat and Losampurpur Goats and 20 cases-3 No vaccination done South sheep pox sheep deaths CCPP Kimorok Goats 30 No vaccination done affectes-2 Baringo CCPP Sub-county-wise Goats No deaths 500 vaccinated North (Endemic) PPR Barwessa, Shoats 20 400 Vaccinated at Barwessa Rabies All wards dogs No deaths 200 vaccinated ECF Kabartonjo, Saimo Cattle No deaths 60 vaccinated Kipsaraman Helminths Saimosoi Cattle, sheep, No deaths 22,000 livestock goats dewormed Water for Livestock Variations in water sources and trekking distance are due to low recharge level and drying up of most water sources. The water pans recharge levels are at 30 to 40 percent in Pastoral livelihood zones and 40 to 50 percent in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones. The low levels are attributed to underperformance of rains and high temperatures and hence high transpiration rates. The camel performance is barely affected by watering frequency. There is no known effect of COVID-19 on livestock water. The variation in watering frequency is due to availability or lack of water, trekking distance and insecurity. Tables 12, 13 and 14 show water sources, trekking distances, expected duration to last and watering frequencies. Table 12: Livestock water sources Livelihood Sources zone Current Normal Mixed farming Rivers, springs, piped water, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Rivers, shallow wells and springs. Agro-Pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, Streams, water pans, Boreholes Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans. Water Water-pans, Bore-holes, rivers wells Table 13: Trekking distances Livelihood zone Return trekking distances Expected duration to last (Kms) (Months) Mixed farming 1-2 2 Throughout Throughout Irrigated cropping 1-2 2 Throughout Throughout Agro-Pastoral 6-10 4-6 2 3 Pastoral 4-10 4-7 2 3 Table 14: Livestock watering frequency Livelihoo Cattle Camels Goats Sheep d zone Curren Norma Curren Norma Curren Norma Curren Norma t l t l t l t l Mixed 7 7 NA NA 7 7 7 7 Irrigated 7 7 NA NA 7 7 7 7 Agro- 5 7 5 7 5 7 5 7 Pastoral 4 7 5 7 4 7 4 7 3.1.4 Impact on availability Rain fed crop production which provides over 90 percent of annual county food requirements during the long rains season will be poor hence the projected yield is expected to be less than 60 percent of the LTA. This implies that households will not be able to replenish their household stocks which currently stand at less than 30 of the LTA. Households are therefore expected to continue relying on markets for their food requirements for the next 12 months. Livestock productivity will be below normal especially for cattle whose body condition is yet to recover to normal conditions and therefore affect milk production and consumption. Households are expected to complement their milk requirements through purchases from the local markets. Goats are likely to recover their normal body condition due to availability of adequate browse and therefore are expected to attract better prices in the markets as a source of income, which can then be used to access food for the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Market operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio, including Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. The main livestock species being traded are the goats, sheep and cattle across the livelihood zones with the goats forming the bulk of the traded animals. There are fewer cattle in the markets compared to a normal year and this has been attributed to by the poor livestock body condition as farmers have opted to keep them at home for the recovery of the body condition. This has affected the cattle prices as they are lower than LTA although on an improving trend. The market conditions are generally on a gradual recovery mode following a long drought spell which affected traded animal volumes for the season under review. There were no market disruptions reported during the season and the buyers of the animals were coming from both within and outside the county including Nairobi, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu among others. The traded volumes and livestock prices are likely to pick up in the next three months as the livestock body condition improves due to the ongoing pasture and browse regeneration. On the other hand, cereals prices were extremely high compared to LTA, a factor that affected access as there were fewer buyers in the markets purchasing cereals and other food stuffs. Most of the maize was being sourced from outside the county, with some coming from the neighboring countries of Uganda and Tanzania. 3.2.2 Market Prices Maize prices The average price of a kilogram of maize Maize Prices Baringo County-June 2022 increased by 32 percent from Ksh. 65 in 100.00 May to Ksh 86 June (Figure 3). The prices 80.00 were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 73 percent. The H60.00 increase in maize prices was attributed to K s40.00 reduced maize supplies in the local e markets as well as increased cost of ir p20.00 transport as a result of high fuel prices in e all livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood ia0.00 Jan FebMarAprMayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh. 90.5 per kg while Irrigated Cropping STA Upper Limit 2022 Lower Limit livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. This trend is likely to be Figure 3: Maize prices maintained in the next three months as there is general shortage of maize in the county. Goat prices The average price of a Goat Prices Baringo County -June 2022 medium sized goat was at Ksh. 2,506 in June, an 4000 increase of eight percent s 3000 in comparison to the ( e 2000 previous month of May c (Figure 4). The price was P 1000 below the short-term a average by eight percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping STA Lower Limit 2022 Upper llimit livelihood zone at Ksh. Figure 4: Goat prices 3,433 and lowest in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.1,500. Livestock body condition in Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones is just recovering from the impact of drought that was experienced in the County from November last year to April this year and therefore resulting in low prices. The prices are expected to improve due to the ongoing improvement in livestock body condition. 3.2.3 Terms of trade Terms of trade declined by 18 Terms of Trade in Baringo County -June 2022 percent from 36 in May to 29 in m 100 June (Figure 5). This was o attributed to increased maize t prices in comparison to the low g ua o 60 goat prices. The current terms of 40 trade were below the long-term z ia e 20 average by 48 percent. Irrigated fs 0 cropping livelihood zone had Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec the highest terms of trade at 49 K while Agro-Pastoral STA 52 2022 Upper Limit livelihood zone had the least at Figure 5: Terms of trade 21.4. Insecurity challenges and high maize prices in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones also contributed to the low terms of trade in this zone. 3.2.4 Income sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, casual waged labour among others as illustrated in table 15. Charcoal production was also on the rise mostly in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones since there was a decline n income from livestock sales as a result of poor livestock body condition. Table 15: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral Agro-Pastoral Irrigated Mixed Livestock Production 88 50 5 23 Food Crop Production - 4 5 5 Cash crop production -- - 59 30 Small Business 1 4 5 7 Casual Waged Labour 1 15 10 20 Formal Waged Labour 1 5 4 5 Poultry Production 2 5 3 1 Fishing - 10 4 - 3.2.5 Water access and availability The main water sources for domestic use in all the livelihood zones are rivers, springs, boreholes, water pans, dams, lakes and shallow wells (Figure 6). Most of these sources are concentrated in Mixed Farming livelihoods zones where rainfall potential is higher as compared to Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones. Most of the rivers at the moment in the Agro- Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones are generally low and others have dried up due uneven distribution of rainfall. Some of the Boreholes and water supplies are not operational due to mechanical breakdowns and Figure 6: Water sources electricity bills thus overstretching the nearby sources. The recharge of all the water sources was fair during the season as compared to normal. The storage capacity of the open water sources is at 40 to 50 percent for the Agro-Pastoral and 20 to 30 percent for the Pastoral livelihood zones. The water levels in most of the boreholes are generally fair. Distances to water sources The average household trekking distance to water sources was stable by June at 3.9 km as compared to the previous month of May (Figure 7). In contrast to the long term average the distances were below normal by three percent (depicting a positive trend). Irrigated cropping livelihood zone recorded the least trekking Figure 7: Trekking distances distance of one kilometre while Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average of 4.2 km. The decrease in distances was attributed to ongoing recharge of water points as a result of the off-season rains being experienced. Waiting time, cost of water and water consumption Waiting time at water sources was at 5-10 minutes for Mixed and Irrigated livelihood zones while for Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral is 20 to 40 minutes. Water consumption in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones did drastically reduce at the beginning of the season but currently improving slightly due to rainfall on-set and reduced distances to water points. The cost of water per 20 litre Jerrycan was normal at Ksh 5 at the point of source. In Pastoral livelihood zone, water consumption per person per day was 4-6 litres contrary to a normal range of 5-10litres and for Agro-Pastoral zone it was 7-12 litres against a normal of 10-15 litres. In the Mixed farming zone consumption was 14-17 litres against a normal of 15-20 litres (Table 16). Due to the depleted water sources in Pastoral livelihood zones, some community members have migrated with their herds of livestock near to water sources so as to reduce the water stress on their animals. Table 16: Trekking distance, water cost, waiting time and water consumption Livelihood Return Distance to Cost of Water at Waiting Time at Average Water zone Water for Domestic Source (Ksh. Per 20 Water Source Consumption Use (Km) litres) (Minutes) (Litrespersonday) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed 1-2 0.5-1 5 5 3-7 2-5 15-20 20-25 Irrigated 1-2 0.5-1 5 5 5-10 2-5 15-20 20-25 Agro - 3-4 1-2 5 5 10-15 5-10 10-15 15-20 Pastoral 3-6 1-5 5 5 15-20 10-15 5-10 10-15 3.2.6 Food consumption Food consumption score According to the NDMA sentinel EWS data, a Food consumption score: March-June 2022 significant proportion of households in the 120.0 100.0 Pastoral and Agro- 80.0 60.0 Pastoral livelihood zones 40.0 did not have acceptable 20.0 f fo oo ec lo an ss u fom up rt mio on ts hc so are shown in Figure 8 and by June, the proportions r g r g r g r g A A A A were at 56 and 37 percent March April May June respectively. This was Acceptable Borderline Poor contributed by the inability of households to Figure 8: Food consumption score access nutritious food stuffs due to high food prices coupled by poor terms of trade that are disadvantaging Pastoral households from accessing food items in the local markets. This has affected food consumption patterns whereby the number of meals per day is 1-2 against a normal of three while meal sizes have reduced compared to normal. Milk consumption The average household milk consumption was one litre per day by June and that the consumption rate has been on an increasing trend since April after the onset of the long rains season. However, the current milk consumption rate was still below the long-term average by 29 percent (Figure Figure 9: Milk consumption 9). The milk consumption was highest in the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone at 1.9 litre and lowest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at 0.7 litre. 3.2.7 Coping strategy Coping strategy index (CSI) The average County CSI was stable by June at 16 with the Coping Strategy Index: March-June 2022 Agro-pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones having the highest CSI values of over 15 for the last four months as shown in Figure 10. The high CSI in these zones was contributed by inadequate 0 food availability following the March April May June prolonged drought spells Irrigated Agro pastoral Pastoral witnessed in the county that forced households to adopt Figure 10: Coping strategy index different strategies for survival including skipping of meals, reduction of meal sizes, food borrowing among others. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity among the MORBIDITY FOR UNDERFIVE POPULATION under-five population 200000 185393 186490 followed almost the same trend as in 2021 with URTI causing the most morbidity followed by 100000 76927 malaria and diarrhoea causing the least 50000 24495 27372 morbidity (Figure 11). 936133920 12798 11986 12890 There was a marginal increase in the number of 2019 2020 2021 2022 cases this year compared Diarrhoea Malaria URTI LTA to 2021 as shown in the chart, this could be Figure 11: Morbidity patterns for under five attributed to low immunity due to poor nutrition status as a result of deteriorating food consumption score and low milk consumption across all livelihood zones. Morbidity for General Population General population Morbidity 52368.66667 40000 40780 31935.66667 20000 12632 12949 12328.66667 16068680.333333 2117 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) Diarrhoea Malaria LTA Figure 12: Morbidity in general population Morbidity in the general population was higher in 2022 compared to 2021 with URTI cases causing the highest morbidity in the general population (Figure 12). However diarrhoeal case remains low and could be attributed to measure put in place to control COVID- 19 pandemic. 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A coverage 140.0 115.4 120.0 100.0 Jan-Jun 2021 Jan-Jun 2022 Target Figure 13: Vitamin A supplementation coverage Vitamin A supplementation coverage for the first half of 2022 was much higher than a similar period last year (Figure 13). Unlike 2021 where the coverage was below the national target of 80, in 2022 it surpassed the target. Immunization was below the national target my mid-year, with Tiaty 77 80 East having higher 80 70 80 80 80 80 60 coverage compared to 54 55 60 50 Tiaty West (Figure 14). 1 2 3 4 EP TE TARGET Figure 14: Immunization coverage Jan-April 2022 for Tiaty sub county 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity New Outpatient Therapeutic Program admissions were above long-term average for January to May 2022 (Figure 15). This could be attributed to stock out of nutrition commodities in most health facilities in the county. Outpatient Theraputic Program (OTP) admision trends 2022 2021 2020 2019 LTM (5-yr average) Figure 15: OTP admission trends Underweight trends The proportion of children 20 Underweight Trends (6-59 months) who are underweight were below the long-term average as shown in Figure 16. 10 7.8 However, in December 6.3 2021 an increase of 5.1 was 4.3 4.7 4.6 3.6 4.7 4.8 5.2 4.8 4.1 recorded and this could be attributed to the worsening of nutrition status due to 2021 2020 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 decrease in availability of milk and also decrease in 2019 2018 the number of meals LTA (5-yr average) consumed per day. Figure 16: Underweight trend Nutrition status based on Mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition in June 2022 was 19.2 compared to 9.6 percent in June 2021; an increase of 50 percent (Figure 17). The deterioration in nutrition status is attributed to the decrease in milk consumption at Figure 17: Nutrition status based on MUAC household level. SMART survey findings According to the SMART survey done in July in Tiaty sub -county (Pastoral livelihood zone, global acute malnutrition (GAM) was at 26.4 percent which was critical while severe acute malnutrition (SAM) was at 5.3 percent. Stunting rate was at 51 percent which is among the highest in the country. 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene Water storage facilities were few across the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as compared to Mixed farming livelihood zone. Most of these storage facilities did not receive water treatment chemicals. Most of the community water supplies had untreated water and the community members were expected to carry out treatment at household level. Generally, most treatment methods conveniently used at household level was boiling and use of aqua-tabs. According to the SMART survey done in July 2022 in Tiaty East and West sub-counties (Pastoral livelihood zone), only one percent of the sampled households access water from safe water sources while 99 percent do not treat their water at all. About 97 percent of the households stored their water in closed containers while 97 percent were not buying water but got it free at the sources. About 24 percent of the households were not aware of any hand washing norms and for those who practiced hand washing, about 7.0, 8.0, 68 and 30 percent did it at four critical times, after taking children to toilet, before eating meals and after visiting toilets respectively. About 52 percent of the households were washing hands using water only. Latrine coverage Table 17: Latrine coverage Sub-county Latrine coverage Open defecation July to December 2022 July to December Open defecation Coverage (bushes) Coverage Eldama Ravine 78 75 15 Baringo Central 47 46 11 Marigat 46 46 51 Mogotio 45 44 50 Baringo North 42 42 23 East Tiaty 3.14 3.14 96.6 West Tiaty 3.14 3.14 96.4 Tiaty East and West sub-counties had the lowest latrine coverage and the highest open defecation in the County. This is mainly attributed to the cultural practices and nomadic lifestyle. This has a negative impact on nutritional status and high case of water related diseases. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Indicator Short rains assessment, Long rains assessment, July, 2022 February, 2022 of maize stocks held 63 29 by households Livestock body Agro- Fair to Agro-pastoral Fair-Good condition (Cattle) pastoral Poor Irrigated Fair Irrigated cropping Fair-Good Mixed Fair Mixed Farming Fair-Good Pastoral-all Poor Pastoral-all species Poor-Fair Water consumption Agro- 8 - 12 Agro-pastoral 10-15 (litres per person per day pastoral Irrigated 5 - 10 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Mixed 12 - 15 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all 15 20 Pastoral-all species 5-10 Price of maize (per kg) 49 86 Price of goat 2,517 2,506 Distance to grazing Agro- 6-10 Agro-pastoral 6-10 pastoral Irrigated 1-5 Irrigated cropping 1-2 Mixed 2-6 Mixed Farming 1-2 Pastoral-all 8-10 Pastoral-all species 4-10 Terms of trade 52 29 Coping strategy index County-15 County-16 Agro-Pastoral-22 Agro-Pastoral-23 Pastoral-15 Pastoral-17 Irrigated Cropping-3 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption Acceptable 58 Acceptable 52 score Borderline 39 Borderline 44 Poor 3 Poor 4 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Access (Enrolment) Table 18: School enrolment School Current term Previous term level Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECDC 23,191 26,303 49,494 22,404 20,019 42,423 Primary 76,223 70,289 146,512 74,161 68,844 143,005 Secondary 25,626 25,144 50,770 25,232 24,506 49,738 Baringo comprises of 990 ECDE centers, 729 primary schools and 179 secondary schools with a current enrolment of 49,494, 146,512 and 50, 770 students respectively as shown in Table 20. There was an improvement in enrolment across all levels of education compared with the previous term, translating to 17, 2.5 and 2.0 percent for ECDE, primary and secondary schools respectively. The improvement in enrolment was attributed to schools meals program primary schools, 100 percent transition policy in secondary schools and availability of bursaries from different sources. There were minor cases of school drop outs of about 25 pupils in ECDE (14 boys and 11 girls), 140 students in primary schools (84 boys and 56 girls) and 69 students (42 boys and 27 girls) in secondary schools. Some of the reasons behind the drop out were psychological trauma, child labour, nomadism, insecurity, illnesses, lack of school fees, teenage pregnancy, indulgence in bodaboda business, early marriages among others. 3.5.2 Food availability in schools during the season Table 19: School meals program No of schools ISMP Cash CSSMP County Other Total Total no with schools transfer ECD types of number of meals SMP school of beneficia program feeding beneficia ries not ries of in schools schools meals meals program program Level Num Bo Gir Bo Gi Bo Gi Bo Gir Bo Gi Bo Gir Bo Gir ber ys ls ys rls ys rls ys ls ys rls ys ls ys ls ECDE 553 nil nil nil nil 64 65 160 162 nil nil 224 227 405 298 00 10 00 75 00 85 3 9 Prima 551 514 464 17 20 na na na na na na 516 466 233 230 ry 54 43 0 0 23 43 58 63 Secon nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil Nil nil nil Sub 1104 514 464 17 20 64 65 160 162 nil nil 740 694 274 260 total 54 43 0 0 00 10 00 75 23 28 11 52 Total 1104 97897 370 12910 32275 nil 143451 53463 About 87 and 68 percent of students in ECDE and Primary schools respectively were benefiting from various forms of school meals program as shown in Table 21. The bulk of the school meals program were in kind school meals program (ISMP) for primary schools and County supported program for ECDE centers. There were no secondary school students receiving any form of school meals program. 3.5.3 Water availability in schools during the season The water sources for schools in the county were boreholes, rivers, water tracking, rain water harvesting and water pans. The number of schools without access to safe water sources in ECDE was 641, 261 and 50 for ECDE, primary and secondary schools respectively. Water access and availability in schools affected retention and attendance of learners in schools and therefore influencing academic performance. There were 388 ECDE, 390 primary schools and 145 secondary schools with functional rain-water harvesting facilities in the county with some of them applying chemicals to treat water. 3.5.4 Effect of the season on school infrastructure There was no closure of schools due to the effects of the long rains while no school infrastructure was reported to have been destroyed by the rains and currently no school is hosting IDPs. 3.5.4 Inter sector links During the long rains ECDE, primary and secondary learners were affected by common colds and diarrhea. Some of the interventions provided by the Ministry of Health include deworming, vitamin A supplementation and regular visits by health officers. Effects of COVID-19 were still being felt i.e. continuity of learning was interrupted, change of school calendar (term dates), syllabus coverage was interrupted and school drop outs. The number of schools with inadequate functional latrines was 120 ECDE, 20 primary schools and 5 secondary schools while the number of schools with inadequate or no hand-washing facilities was 15 ECDE, 10 primary schools and 3 secondary schools. Girls received sanitary kits for the previous term 2022 provided by the government. Absenteeism, poor performance and low self-esteem are the effects faced by girls due to lack of sanitary kits. There were cases of child labour which were prevalent particularly in vulnerable groups, there were occasional cases of sexual exploitation and gender-based violence. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions According to County Meteorological department, the off-season rains of June to August are likely to be enhanced in the highlands that comprises mainly the Mixed farming livelihood zone but will be below to near normal within the low lands. According to the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) EWS bulletin of June 2022, food prices particularly for cereals will be above normal for the next six months as the county will not have an opportunity to replenish its stocks via local production. According to NDMA June bulletin, rangeland conditions in terms of pastures and browse will continue to be below normal conditions especially in the Pastoral areas due to poor performance of the rains. NDMA June bulletin shows that livestock body condition for cattle in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas will remain in poor to fair conditions for the next three months due to slow recovery of pastures. Water availability and access will remain in fair conditions due to the impacts of off- season rains of July to August and therefore affecting water consumption at household level. Security situation will remain stable due to the control measures being put in place by the government. However, the general election is likely to create some tension among the rival political candidates. Household stocks will continue to decline further as the county did not have an opportunity to replenish its stocks as a result of failure of rains for the last four seasons. Local markets will heavily rely on supplies of food from other counties (Source: Agriculture dept, Baringo County Government). Market operations will most likely remain normal. The general elections scheduled in August 2022 will be peaceful and that the ongoing political campaigns will not have major effect on food security. 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six months (August-January) The County will not have any household maize stocks left in the next three months as the little existing stocks will have been depleted by then leading to near total dependence on markets. The expected maize harvest will be below 50 percent and will be realized by October due to late planting, moisture stress among other factors. This therefore implies that the county will experience a food deficit for the remainder of this year and half of next since it is heavily reliant on long rains for food production. The off-season rains are expected to stimulate marginal forage recovery across the county and therefore cattle are likely to post marginal improvement in body condition leading to a slight improvement in milk production though it will still be below long- term average. Livestock prices for cattle are likely to remain below LTA while prices for goats and sheep will improve as a result of browse availability. Food prices particularly for maize will remain above LTA and therefore affecting negatively terms of trade for Pastoral households. Water access and availability will improve to fair condition and therefore relieving households in terms of trekking distances, water consumption and waiting time at water sources for at least two months. All the outcome indicators of food consumption, nutrition status and coping strategies will be poor as households are expected to experience food consumption gaps for the remainder of the year due to expected below normal crop and livestock production. The county is therefore expected to record more cases of malnutrition especially in the Pastoral areas. 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall county IPC phase classification is in phase three (Crisis). Both Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones are in IPC phase 3 (Crisis). The Mixed farming and the Irrigated livelihood zones are in phase one (NoneMinimal). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The county had an acceptable food consumption score of 38.2 which was a marginal increase as compared to the previous month at 36.5. A proportion of 3.4, 44.4 and 52.2 percent of the households across the livelihood zones had poor, borderline and acceptable FCS respectively. More households in Pastoral an Agro-pastoral livelihood zones have shifted to borderline and poor food consumption scores by June in comparison to the previous months and this was due to increasing food consumption gaps that are a result of very high food prices, below normal milk production, poor terms of trade and poor crop production. About 39, 24 and 37 percent of the sampled households were applying none, stressed and crisis reduced strategies (rCSI) respectively. About 46 percent of sampled households had no livelihood coping while 32 and 21 percent of households applied stressed and crisis livelihood coping strategies. The proportion of children sampled who were at the risk of malnutrition was stable at 19.2 but still above the LTA by June. 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking Sub County Rank (Worst Main food security threatContributing factors to best) Tiaty 1 Extremely high Poor pastures malnutrition level Poor recharge of Livestock water sources mortality Poor rainfall Insecurity Poor terms of trade High food prices Mogotio 2 Crop failure Livestock mortality Poor forage Poor recharge of conditions water sources Poor livestock Poor terms of trade body conditions High food prices Baringo North 4 Poor rainfall Fair livestock body Crop failure condition Invasion of Crop Livestock mortality pests (African Insecurity army worms) Poor terms of trade Insecurity High food prices Poor forage condition Baringo South Poor rainfall Crop failure performance Crop pests Poor livestock Poor recharge of body condition water sources for Poor regeneration irrigation of pasture Insecurity Livestock Malnutrition mortality High food prices Baringo Central 5 Poor rainfall High food prices performance Poor terms of trade Invasion of crop pests Eldama Ravine 6 Fair water Fair crop recharge conditions Fair forage conditions 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions The Ministry of Interior and Coordination received 3, 360 bags (50kg) of rice and 3,360 bags (50kg) of beans for distribution to the vulnerable households in the county. World Food Program is planning to target 2, 778 household in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household will receive Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision is carrying out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, Tiaty West, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000. 5.2.2 Non-food interventions AGRICULTURE Sub Intervention Ward No of Implemente Impact Cost Time County beneficia rs in terms frame ries of food All Sub Promotion of All 20,000 FAO, WFP, Improve 15,000,0 Jun-Dec Counties Agri nutrition wards RED ment of 00 2022 through Nutrition CROSS, househol Sensitive COUNTY d food Interventions- GOVERNM and Targeting the ENT, Nutrition vulnerable DRLSP, security Provision of KCSAP, Kitchen ELRP gardening materials, vegetable seeds, nets and capacity building of staff and farmers ALL Support food ALL 6,000 County Increase 20 M July- security Government agricultur Dec, interventions by of Baringo, al 2022 providing inputs FAO, Red productiv for bulking and Cross, SHA ity planting seeds and seedlings All Bulking of high Mochon 2000 County Bulk 10M 2022- iron beans and goi, Government enough 2023- sweet potato rich Ilchamu WFP materials Continu in Vitamin A to s and to be ing Koibate distribute k d to farmers across the County in order to improve Food and nutrition county. LIVESTOCK Baringo Vaccination 800 BCGACTE Boost 30M Dec,202 South against LSD, househol D livestock 1-Jan, Baringo CCPP and PPR ds Health 2022 North Mogotio Baringo Capacity 250 BCGSHA Resilienc 0.2M Oct, North strengthening to househol e 2021- Mother to ds (HH) building Jan, Mother groups to HHs 2022 on Poultry through Production Mother Mother groups Baringo Provision of 500HH BCG, Improve 2.M Oct,202 north, Galla bucks to livestock 1-on- groups productiv wards ERavin Provision of 500HH BCGRPLR Improve Sept, e pasture P communi 2021- Baringo harvesting tools ty Dec, Central like pasture livelihoo 2021 Mogotio cutters, and d Baringo baling boxes. All sub- Capacity 1,000HH BCG(MOA Well 1M Through counties building of LF) Infirmed out Farmers and Partners staff and staff. farmers for best practices Mogotio Construction of 200HH BCGDRLS Improved 5M Dec,202 livestock feed P pasture 1- store conservat Feb,202 ion 2 WATER Tiaty Equipping,extens Kachilit 2,500,00 ionand wa 0 construction of kiosk ERavin Pipeline Cheraik 60HH CGB 2M cheraik water ERavin Pipeline Kabimoi 50HH CGB 1M Kasoe water ERavin Kapngasio water Kaimoi 50HH CGB 2M e project pipeline Extension Baringo Upgrading of Kibingo 60HH CGB 5M South kibingor BH r Partners County Vitamin A All 82,268 MOH 2m Routine wide Supplementation health people supported by selected County Zinc 75,000 County 800,000 Routine wide Supplementation people department of health County Management of 100 52,600 County 240,000, Routine wide Acute health people department 000 Malnutrition facilities of health (IMAM) supported by Surge at National 6 health government, in East and WFP Pokot County IYCN All 107,492 County Interventions health department (EBF and Timely facilities of health Intro of and supported by complementary commun IPC Foods) and ity units promotion of Orange flesh sweet potato County Iron Folate All County Routine Supplementation health department among Pregnant facilities of health Women ANC supported by County Deworming All 33,683 County Routine health department facilities of health ANC supported by Baringo Provision of food Barwess 25,685 GOK Increased continu north commodities. a enrolmen ous Kipsara t Bartabw kipsara Mogotio Parents provide 28259 - Parents Promote Termly water, fuel wood, learners - NGOs retention pay cook and (ECD, BOM purchase utensils PRY TIATY School feeding 18,042 MOE Improved Jan WEST from MOE retention, 2022 enrolmen Dec t and 2022 participat 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Sub County 2022 LRA Food Population Estimated proportion in need of security rank immediate food assistance () (Worst to best) LRA 2022 July 2022 Tiaty 1 153,347 (46) 70,540 Mogotio 2 91,104 (40) 36,442 Baringo North 3 104,871 (48) 50,338 Baringo South 4 90,104 (50) 45,052 Baringo Central 5 96,951 (30) 29,085 (Parts of Tenges, Kabarnet, Sacho and Kapropita wards) Eldama Ravine 6 129,535 (5) 6,400 (Urban poor) (10) 12,954 (Perkerra, Koibatek wads and urban poor) Total population in need of food assistance 207,969 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Agriculture Sub- Intervention Ward No. of Proposed Required AvailablTime county beneficia Impleme Resources e Frame ries nters Resourc All Inputs provision all 8,000 WFP, All Finances Staff, 2022- including projects in (Kshs 12 County 2023 capacity building the million) ADP on post-harvest departmen and safe use of t of chemicals Agricultur All Farmer All 100,000 KCSAP, Finances Staff 2022- digitization ELRP, (Kshs 40 2023 across the County WFP Million) for effective targeting and assistance ALL Enhance irrigated Irrigati 2000 National Finances Staff 2022- Agriculture on Governme (Kshs 10 2024 reviving stalled scheme nt, County Million) irrigation s Governme schemes nt and developm ALL Promote Farm All 150,000 Departme Finances Staff, 2022- land regeneration (Includ nt of (100 Availabi2024 and ing Education, million) lity of Environmental schools Departme well conservation with nt of fenced through farms Agricultur farms, affruitation and e in (provision of revival Baringo certified fruit of County trees for nutrition young Governme and farmer nt, conservation), s National and gulley clubs) Governme healing across the nt and County developm ALL Establishment of Mariga 7000 WFP and Finances Good 2022- Agriculture t, County (20 will 2025 business Mogoti Governme Million) from development o and nt of farmers, centres in Eldam Baringo Existenc identified wards a e of the for identified Ravine small groups for holder linkage with public organized procure markets strategy Livestock - Vaccinations 100,000 BCG, 5M 1M Feb,2022 BNorth against LSD, Cattle, FAO and -Jun, , CCPP and PPR 270,000 other 2022 Mogoti Deworming goats Developm o Disease 50,000 ent Tiaty surveillance Sheep partners (LSD, CCPP) Tiaty, BNorth (LSD) Tiaty Provision of 2,000HH BCG, 20M - Feb,2022 Baringo Livestock feeds FAO, -Apr, North NDMA 2022 Baringo Partners Tiaty Emergency 50,000H BCG 77M - Feb, Baringo Livestock Off- H FAO 2022- North take 5,000HH Partners Apr, Baringo 2022 - Establishment of 4,500HH MOALF 90 M - Feb,2022 Baringo strategic livestock BCG -Jun, North feed reserves; 12 NDMA(E 2022 -Tiaty(E across 5 sub- U) W) counties Partners -South All sub- Hay harvesting 41,500H BCG 60M - Feb,2022 county and baling H RPLRP -Jun, machinery KCSAP 2022 1 per sub-county SHA Loruk, RenovationConst 13,000H BCG, 65M Feb,2022 Amaya, ruction of H Partners -Jun, Barwess livestock Auction 2022 a, yards Nginya ng and Kolloa Water Baringo Upgrading of 60HH CGB 5M 1.5M July 2023 South kibingor BH Partners ERavin Driling and 100HH CGB 4.5 1.0M July 2023 e Equipping of Partners Maji BH County Purchase and 320 CGB 48M Dec.2022 Wide Installation of Instituitio Partners 10,000Litres ns plastic Tanks 320No. ERavin Chemususu water 100,000 CGB 120M 30M 2022202 e- distribution and Partners 3FY Mogoti metering Tiaty Counstruction of 150HH CGB 150M Chemolingot Partners Multi-Purpose All Vitamin A 90,449 MOH 0.5M July - subcoun Supplementation Dec 2022 All Zinc 20,000 MOH July-Dec subcoun Supplementation 2021 All Management of 8971 MOH 28M July-Dec subcoun Acute 2022 No. of ties Malnutrition children 6 (IMAM) months estimated to be malnouris All IYCN 41,533 MOH 4.1 M July-Dec subcoun Interventions 2022 Children ties (EBF and Timely birth 2 Intro of years complementary Foods) All Iron Folate 90,449 MOH 5.35M July-Dec subcoun Supplementation 2022 ties among Pregnant Women All sub- Deworming 83,066 MOH 1.66M July-Dec counties children 1 2022 5 years Baringo Recommendation 128 pry GOK, 384sags Cooking immediat Central for feeding 130 well 90kg of material e programmes ECDEs wishers beans s, fuel- 8500x384 fire 3,264,000 wood, 640 sags Chev ( 50kg of rice cookma 35002,24 0,000 Salt 10kg 40 Cooking fat 40ltrs15,0 koibate Timely Provision 91 pry MOE, immediat k of food. 154 Well e ECDEs wishers",
            "Baringo_LRA_2016.pdf": "1.1 County Background 2.0 COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION.......................................................................... 3 - Page 2\n2.1 Current Food Security Situation - Page 3\n2.2 Food Security Trends - Page 3\n2.3 Rainfall Performance - Page 4\n3.0 Impact Of Rainfall Perfomance, Shocks And Hazards - Page 4\n3.1 Crop Production - Page 4\n3.3 Water And Sanitation - Page 8\n3.4 Markets And Trade - Page 8\n3.5 Health And Nutrition - Page 10\n4.0 Food Security Prognosis - Page 13\n4.1 Prognosis Assumptions. - Page 13\n4.2 Food Security Outcomes From August To October - Page 13\n5.0 Conclusion And Recommendations - Page 14\n5.1 Conclusion - Page 14\n5.2 Summary Of Recommendations - Page 14\n6.0 Annexes - Page 15\n6.1 On-Going Interventions By Sector - Page 15\n6.2 Food Intervention Required 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County is divided into six sub- counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and 4% Marigat. It covers an estimated area of 22% Mixed farming 11,015.3 square kilometres with a 43% population of 555,561 (KNBS, 2009). The Pastoral county has four main livelihood zones. Agro-pastoral 31% Irrigated Figure 1: Population by livelihood zone 2 2.0 COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION 2.1 Current Food Security Situation Parts of the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones are classified in the Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones are classified in the Minimal phase (IPC Phase 1). The amount of maize stocks held at household level are about 69 percent of the long term average (LTA). The current terms of trade were 72.5 percent above the LTA and 41 percent above the amount posted at a similar time in 2015, indicating favourable purchasing power for households selling livestock to purchase maize. Based on data from the Food Security Outcome Monitoring (FSOM) report, there was an improvement in the proportion of households in the acceptable food consumption category from 56.4 percent in May 2015 to 90.7 percent in May 2016. The report also indicated that the coping strategy index (CSI) in May 2016 was 15 compared with 27 during the same period in 2015 implying that household food security status is improving. The main drivers of food insecurity in the county include: pests and diseases in crops, livestock mortalities due to diseases and insecurity along the Kerio Valley. Others include lower-than- normal immunization levels and poor hygiene and sanitation practices. 2.2 Food Security Trends Table 1: Food security trends in Baringo County Indicator Current situation (LRA 2016) Previous season (SRA 2016) Food security phase Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in mixed Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in mixed farming and irrigated cropping farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones livelihood zones Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of pastoral and agro\u2013pastoral zones pastoral and agro\u2013pastoral zones Household food stocks 69 % of the LTA 88 % of the LTA Livestock body condition Good (in pastoral livelihood zone Good to fair for large stocks good to fair) for large stocks Good for small stocks Good for small stocks Household water consumption (litres per person per day) - Pastoral zone 15\u201320 12\u201315 - Agro-pastoral zone 15\u201320 12\u201315 - Mixed farming livelihood zone 20\u201325 15\u201320 - Irrigated farming livelihood 20\u201325 15\u201320 zone Terms of trade 72.5% above the LTA 49 % above the LTA Coping strategy index 15 (May 2016) 27 (May 2015) Food consumption score 1.3% poor, 8.0 % borderline, 90.7% 13.6% poor, 30.0% borderline, Acceptable 56.4% Acceptable Children at risk of 10.2% 12.2% malnutrition 3 2.3 Rainfall Performance There was a late onset in the first dekad of April compared to the second dekad of March normally. Most of the county received above-normal rains with the central and eastern parts of the county receiving 90\u2013125 percent of normal while the southern and northern parts received between 125\u2013 200 percent of normal rains. The eastern parts of Nginyang and Tangulbei in East Pokot received the least amounts with Eldama Ravine and Central Kolowa receiving the highest. Spatial distribution was uneven while temporal distribution was poor. Cessation was early in the second dekad of May compared to the first dekad of June normally although off-season showers were on-going in the county. Figure 2: Rainfall performance 3.0 IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS 3.1 Crop Production The long rains season is the most important season accounting for about 90 percent of total rain received in the county. The main crops grown for both food and income are maize, beans, millet and cowpeas. Crop production contributes seven percent of cash income in the agro\u2013pastoral livelihood zone, 35 percent in the mixed farming livelihood zone and 64 percent in the irrigated farming livelihood zones. Maize contributes 63 percent of food in the agro\u2013pastoral and 21 percent in the mixed farming livelihood zones. Table 2: Rain-fed crop production Crop Area planted Long term average 2016 long rains Long term average during 2016 area planted during season production production during long rains the long rains season (90 kg bags) the long rains season (Ha) (Ha) season (90 kg bags) Maize 34,318 38,140 1,037,871 800,650 Beans 20,320 19,626 305,513 269,148 Finger Millet 3,312 3,307 36,615 35,456 The area under maize production reduced by 10 percent of the LTA which was attributed to lack of input subsidy to the farmers as had happened in the previous season with Baringo North and South sub\u2013counties being the most affected. However, the projected production is 30 percent above the LTA which was attributed to timely provision of fertilizers in Eldama Ravine as well as favourable rains which boosted overall production. The area under beans was normal and the consequent production 16 percent above the LTA due to favourable rains (Table 2). 4 Table 3: Irrigated crop production Crop Area planted Short term 2016 long rains Short term average (3 during the 2016 average (3 years) area season production years) production long rains season planted during long (90 kg bags) during 2016 long rains (ha) rains season (ha) projected/ actual season (90 kg bags) Maize 1,971 3,417 58,752 101,540 Beans 42 82 420 984 Tomatoes 37 58.5 254 397 In the irrigated farming, area under maize production reduced by 42 percent as most farmers opted to skip the season in a bid to control Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease that was witnessed in the previous season. The consequent production declined by the same percentage due to reduced acreage planted. Area under beans reduced by 49 percent of the LTA as farmers preferred a particular variety of bean seed for planting which was not available. Correspondingly, production declined by 57 percent of the LTA. The area under tomatoes also declined by 37 percent due to pests and diseases. Their production was affected by Tuta absoluta leading to a decline in production of 36 percent of the LTA (Table 3). Table 4: Maize stocks in Baringo County Maize stocks held by Quantities held currently (90\u2013 Long Term Average quantities kg bags) held (90\u2013kg bags) at similar time of the year House Holds 106,883 154,622 Traders 44,887 44,667 Millers 10,837 3,782 NCPB 22,715 18,450 Total 185,322 221,521 Maize stocks held at household level are 69 percent of the LTA as farmers sold their stocks to purchase farm inputs. The stocks held were carry\u2013over stocks from the 2015 short rains. Traders held normal stocks although they were buying directly from farmers outside the county and then selling to millers. NCPB held higher\u2013than\u2013normal stocks by 23 percent because millers were not purchasing maize from the Board because it had discoloured. Millers were therefore purchasing maize from traders not NCPB which therefore held higher\u2013than\u2013normal stocks (Table 4). 5 3.2 Livestock Production The major livestock species kept in the county are: cattle, goats, sheep, camels and honeybees. Poultry is gaining prominence across all livelihood zones. Table 5: Contribution of livestock production to cash and food in Baringo County Livelihood zone Cash Food Mixed farming 23 25 Irrigated cropping 8 25 Agro-pastoral 50 20 Pastoral 88 21 Pasture and Browse Pasture was good across all livelihood zones which is normal and likely to last approximately three months in all livelihood zones except in the pastoral livelihood zone where it is likely to last two months. Browse was also good across all livelihood zones and likely to last between 3 \u2013 4 months (Table 6). T able 6: Pasture and browse condition Livelihood Pasture condition Browse condition zone Current Situation at Projected Duration Current Situation at Projected this time of to last this time of Duration to last year (Months) year (Months) Mixed Good Good 3 \u2013 4 months Good Good 3\u20134 months Farming Irrigated Good Good 2 \u2013 3 months Good Good 3\u20134 months Agro \u2013 Good Good 3 \u2013 4 months Good Good 3\u20134 months pastoral Pastoral Fair-Good Fair-Good 2 months Good Good 3\u20134 months Livestock Productivity Table 7: Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel zone Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Mixed Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Farming Agro pastoral Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Irrigated Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good cropping Pastoral Fair to Fair to Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good 6 Table 8: Milk production, consumption and prices Livelihood Milk Production Milk consumption Price (Ksh)/Litre zone (Litres)/Household (Litres)per Household Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 4-6 litres 5-6 litres 2 litres 2 litres 50 50 Irrigated 4-6 litres 5-6 litres 2 litres 2 litres 50 50 Agro pastoral 1.5-3 litres 1-3 litres 1 litres 1 litres 60 60 Pastoral 1.5 litres 1-2 litres 2 litres 2 litres 75 75 Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) Table 9: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Pastoral Agro - Irrigated Mixed pastoral farming Current TLU per HH 3.2 3.1 2.6 2.6 Normal TLU per HH 3.2 3.1 2.6 2.6 Variation by Low income HH 2.5 2.1 2 2 wealth group Medium income HH 4 4.1 3.9 4 Migration Currently there is no out or in-migration but local movements were noticed in some sub-counties (East Pokot and Marigat) due to pastoralists moving back to the wet season grazing areas which is normal. Access to forage is hampered by insecurity cases along Kerio Valley. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Foot and Mouth Disease was reported in Tiaty sub\u2013county and Pestes des Petites Ruminantes (PPR) in Mogotio, Koibatek, Baringo Central and Barwessa, Other diseases that were reported include Heart Water in Baringo North and Contagious Caprine Pleuro-Pneumonia (CCPP) which is endemic in all sub-counties. Heart Water disease claimed 65 goats at Yatya in the pastoral livelihood zone while 49 goats died due to CCPP in Yatya and Kollowa in the same zone. Vaccinations against Black quarter (BQ), Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), Sheep and Goat Pox and rabies were carried out across all livelihood zones. Water for livestock Table 10: Water for livestock Livelihood Sources Return trekking Expected duration Watering zone distances to last frequency Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal (Month s) Mixed Streams, Rivers, Streams, Rivers, 1\u20131.5Km 1\u2013 4 3\u20134 Daily Daily farming springs, water pan springs, water pan, 1.5Km boreholes, dam boreholes, dam Irrigated Rivers, shallow wells Rivers, shallow 1\u20131.5Km 1\u2013 4 3\u20134 Daily Daily cropping and springs. wells and springs. 1.5Km 7 Agro Streams, water pans, Streams, water 4\u20138 Km 4\u20138 Km 4 3\u20134 Daily Daily Pastoral Boreholes pans, Boreholes Pastoral Water-pans, Bore- Water-pans, Bore- 4\u20138Km 4\u20138Km 3 2\u20133 Daily Daily holes, seasonal rivers holes, seasonal rivers 3.3 Water and Sanitation The main sources of water in the county are rivers, boreholes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, water pans, dams and lakes (Table 11). Recharge to the open water sources was approximately 90 percent of their capacity, which improved water availability and access. Surface water facilities held approximately 80 \u2013 90 percent of their capacities with most of them having water which is above normal at this time of the year. Table 11: Water for domestic use Division / Distance to Water Cost of Water Waiting Time at Average HH Use Status of Two Major Water Projected livelihood for Domestic Use Water Source (Litres/person/day) Sources duration zone (Km) (Kshs./20litres) (Minutes) of water Normal2 Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Current Normal availability Operational Operational in current Source No. Source No. water sources (months) Pastoral 2.5 \u2013 1.5 \u2013 3.0 5 5 3 \u20135 3 \u2013 5 12 \u201315 15 \u2013 20 Pans 60 Pans 63 3 \u2013 3.5 3.5 Bore 65 Bore 76 months holes holes Agro - 1.5 \u2013 1.3 \u2013 2.5 2\u20135 2\u20135 2 \u2013 5 2\u20135 12 \u2013 15 15 \u2013 20 Pans 44 Pans 39 3 \u2013 3.5 Pastoral 3.5 Bore 10 Bore 7 months holes holes Springs 5 Springs 5 Mixed 0.5 \u2013 2.0 0.5 \u2013 2 2 2\u2013 4 2\u20135 15 \u2013 20 20 \u2013 25 Streams 10 Streams 10 3 \u2013 4 Farming 1.8 Springs 135 Springs 135 months 0.5 \u2013 0.5 \u2013 2 2 1 \u2013 5 1\u20135 15 \u2013 20 20 \u2013 25 B/holes 18 B/holes 12 3 \u2013 4 Irrigated 1.5 1.6 Shallow 11 Shallow 14 months Cropping wells wells Areas which had long distances included; Laiwat and Nginyang in East Pokot where the distances covered were 3.5 \u2013 5 kilometres which is normal at this time of the year. Water was free at open water sources, Ksh 2 \u2013 5 at the boreholes and Ksh 10 \u2013 20 from vendors. 3.4 Markets and Trade The main markets in the county are Nginyang, Kolowa, Barwessa, Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Tenges and Sirwa for livestock, cereals and other food commodities. Market operations have remained normal with the exception of Kolowa which was disrupted due to insecurity. Commodities traded were maize, beans, irish potatoes, onions and tomatoes. The markets were well provisioned across the livelihood zones. The supply sources for livestock, livestock products and cereals were from farmers both from within and outside the county. 2 Normal refers to same period in absence of a shock (what usually happens around that period). 8 9 )gk / .hsK( ecirP 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ja n A v e ra F e b g e (2 M a r 0 1 1 -2 0 A p r M 1 a 5 y ) Ju n Ju 2 l 0 A 1 5 u g S e p O 2 c 0 t 1 6 N o v D e c Figure 6: Trends in maize prices ).hsK( ecirP 3 2 2 1 1 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 A Ja v n e ra g e F e b (2 M 0 a 1 r 1 A -2 p 0 r 1 M 5 ) a y Ju n 2 0 Ju l 1 A 5 u g S e p 2 0 1 O c t 6 N o v D e c Figure 7: Trends in goat prices eziam fo smargoliK taog a rof degnahcxe 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ja n F e b M a r A A p r v e M ra g a y e (2 Ju n 0 1 1 Ju -2 l 0 A 1 5 ) u g S e p O c t N o v D e c Maize Prices The current maize prices were 20 percent below the LTA and seven percent below that of same period in 2015. The prices are expected to fall in August as harvesting begins in the farms leading to a low demand for maize in the markets as its supply increases (Figure 6). Goat Prices The average price of a goat was 37 percent above the LTA and 31 percent above that of July 2015. The price of goats has been increasing steadily as from February 2016 (Figure 7). The steady rise has been attributed to good livestock body condition due to availability of browse and water, farmers holding back their livestock for restocking as well as presence of food at household level. The prices are expected to remain stable in the next three months as browse and water will still be available. Terms of Trade The current terms of trade were 72.5 percent above the LTA and 41 percent above that posted at a similar time in 2015 (Figure 8). The variation was as a result of rising goat prices as farmers hold back their livestock as there was no need to sell them for food since it was available at household level. There has been a steady rise in terms of trade as from April occasioned by improving body condition translating into better goat prices. Figure 8: Trends in Terms of trade 10 sesaC detropeR fo rebmuN 00.000,1 00.005 00.0 U R T I M a la ria 2 0 1 5 D ia 2 rr h 0 1 o 6 e a in S k infe c tio n In Efe yc etio n Figure 9: Trends in U-5 morbidity patterns sesaC detropeR fo rebmuN 00.051 00.001 00.05 00.0 U R T I M a la ria 2 0 1 5 D ia rrh o 2 0 1 6 e a In S k infe ctio n In Efe y ectio n 3.5 Health and Nutrition Morbidity Patterns The most prevalent diseases between January and June 2016 among children aged below five years and the general population include upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), malaria, diarrhoea, skin infections and eye infections. There was also an outbreak of Hepatitis B in Lawan and Kaboskei in Baringo North. There was a noted decrease in morbidity for children aged below five years with regard to URTI and diarrhoea during the reporting period compared to the same period in 2015 (Figure 9). The decrease was attributed to improved awareness on health care-seeking behaviour to care givers. Malaria, skin and eye infections slightly increased because of poor health environment and lower\u2013 than\u2013optimal immunization levels (Table 12). A decrease in the disease incidence in all the five diseases was reported in the period from January to June this year compared to the same period last year (Figure 10). The decrease is associated with seeking of early treatment, accessibility of simple rapid diagnostic equipment at local facilities and increased outreaches. Figure 10: Morbidity patterns general population ppopulation Epidemic prone diseases Table 12: Epidemic-prone diseases Epidemic January \u2013 June 2015 January \u2013 June 2016 No of cases Reported No of cases Reported Deaths Deaths Measles 7 0 2 0 Cholera 92 1 0 0 Dysentery 358 0 225 0 Diarrhoea 30333 0 15,853 0 Malaria 17703 0 12,734 0 Typhoid 3481 0 4240 0 Others_________ 27 0 0 0 Others ________ 118 0 0 0 Immunization Coverage Table 13: Immunization Coverage Year Percentage of fully immunized children in the Percentage of children immunized against the district mentioned diseases in the district Source DHIS MOH 710 Vaccines and Source Nutrition survey Immunizations January to June 2016 66.86% 1. OPV 1 _%___ 2. OPV 3 _%___ 3. Measles ___%_ No survey done during this period January to June 2015 58.25% 1. OPV 1 __97__ 2. OPV 3 __98__ 3. Measles __92.2__ The percentage for immunization coverage increased during the period between January to June 2016 compared to previous year attributed to purchase of more fridges for preservation of vaccines and opening up of more immunization centres by Baringo County Government hence improving access to the services (Table 13). Vitamin A supplementation The coverage of vitamin A supplementation increased from 22.7 percent in January to June 2015 to 40.2 percent during the same period in 2016 for children 12 \u2013 59 months. The increase in coverage could be attributable to additional supplementation in ECDE and during the malezi bora campaigns. However, coverage of vitamin A supplementation in the county was still below the national target of 80 percent. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity The GAM in East Pokot sub\u2013county was 23 percent Average (2011-2015) 2015 2016 and was classified as critical while severe acute 20.0 malnutrition was at 3.5 percent (SMART survey, ) 18.0 July 2016). The proportion at risk of malnutrition m m16.0 was 43 percent below the LTA (Figure 11). The 5 314.0 1 most likely causes of malnutrition include; poor <12.0 C A10.0 infant and young child care practices, poor dietary U M 8.0 diversity and low micro-nutrient supplementation. ( ' k 6.0 Households are currently consuming 1 \u2013 2 meals in s ir 4.0 the pastoral and agro\u2013pastoral livelihood zones and ta ' 2.0 2 \u2013 3 meals in the mixed and irrigated cropping 0.0 livelihood zones which was normal for this time of Jan FebMarAprMay Jun Jul AugSepOctNovDec the year. Figure 11: % children at risk of malnutrition 11 FCS Trend 2013 - 2016 90.7 56.4 47 42.2 33 28.9 28.9 30 20 13.6 8 1.3 May, 2013 May, 2014 May, 2015 May, 2016 Poor Borderline Acceptable Figure12: Food consumption score trends in Baringo County Figure 13: Coping strategy index trends 12 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 M a 2 2 y , 2 0 1 3 M a C 3 6 y , 2 S 0 1 I 4 t r e n d s M a 2 7 y , 2 0 1 5 M a 1 5 y , 2 0 1 6 Food Consumption Scores Most households (90.7 percent) had an acceptable FCS and were consuming at least a staple and vegetables on a daily basis complemented by frequent consumption of oil and pulses (FSOM, May 2016), an improvement from 56.4 percent that was recorded at a similar time last year (Figure 12). Coping Mechanisms The mean CSI for May 2016 was 15 compared to 27 during a similar time last year (Figure 13), implying that households were currently employing fewer insurance consumption \u2013 based coping strategies less frequently to bridge food consumption gaps than last year (FSOM, May 2016). The most relied upon coping strategies included reliance on less preferred and/or less expensive food by 77.1 percent of the households and reduction in the number of meals eaten per day at 68.6 percent. Sanitation and Hygiene Latrine coverage in the county is estimated at 50, 10, 30 and 20 percent in the mixed farming, pastoral and agro pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively. The low coverage is associated with retrogressive cultural practices across all livelihood zones such as family members sharing a toilet being considered a taboo. Contamination of water sources is highly reported within the county mainly attributed to few poor sanitation facilities across all livelihood zones, reliance on unprotected open water sources and using one source of water to water livestock, drink, bathe and launder. Water treatment is minimal with households doing it only when they receive water treatment chemicals from the government. Hand washing during the four critical times was at two percent while open defecation was approximated at 96 percent in East Pokot (SMART survey, July 2016). Poor sanitation and hygiene practices could be a major cause of the prevalence of water-borne diseases. School Meals Programme Table 14: Coverage of School Meals Programme Name of Sub No. of HGSM RSMP Total counties schools Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Baringo north 71 9167 8810 9167 8810 Mogotio 67 10586 10489 10568 10489 Baringo Central 31 3020 2789 3020 2789 Marigat 49 15295 14050 15295 14050 East pokot 115 9006 7727 9006 7727 Koibatek NO SMP Sub Total 333 38068 36138 9006 7727 47047 43865 Grand total 333 74206 16733 90912 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions. The food security outcomes are based on the following assumptions: \uf0b7 There is a 55-60 percent chance of La Ni\u00f1a conditions occurring during the October\u2013 November\u2013December season which will result in below or near\u2013normal rains. \uf0b7 The available pasture is expected to last 2\u20134 months in the mixed farming, agro-pastoral and irrigated farming livelihood zones and two months in the pastoral livelihood zone. \uf0b7 Available browse is expected to last into the next rainy season for all livelihood zones. \uf0b7 Maize prices are expected to fall as from August as harvesting of the crop starts while the price of livestock is expected to rise. \uf0b7 The terms of trade are expected to improve with the rising livestock prices and falling maize prices. \uf0b7 With the projected above\u2013normal maize harvest, there will be sufficient stocks at household level and markets will be well provisioned with the staples. 4.2 Food Security Outcomes from August to October Water availability and accessibility is expected to remain relatively stable across all livelihood zones. Pasture is expected to last up to the next rainy season due to the on\u2013going off\u2013season rains in the county. Livestock production is expected to improve across all livelihood zones due to the continued availability of forage. Market provisions are expected to be high and the terms of trade are expected to improve thereby increasing households access to food. The nutritional status for the under\u2013fives is expected to continue improving. Mortality rates are expected to 13 remain below the alert thresholds. Households are expected to employ the normal coping mechanisms although some poor households in the pastoral livelihood zone are likely to increase the number and severity of coping strategies than normal. Therefore, most households in the mixed farming, agro pastoral, and irrigated cropping livelihood zones are likely to remain in the minimal food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 1) while some poor households in the pastoral livelihood zone will be classified in the stressed food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 2). 4.3 Food Security Outcomes from November to January Although the October\u2013November\u2013December rains are expected to be depressed in amounts, pasture regeneration is still expected. Therefore, livestock production is expected to improve leading to improved milk availability at household level. Market operations are expected to be normal and markets well provisioned. The terms of trade are expected to be stable and above the LTA thereby ensuring that the households have access to food commodities in the markets. The nutritional status of children is expected to improve as milk and food availability improves. Mortality rates are likely to remain within seasonal norms. Therefore, most households in the mixed farming, agro pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones will remain in the minimal food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 1) although some poor households in the pastoral livelihood zone will remain in the stressed food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 2). 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion The food security situation in the county is stable and expected to remain so through to December 2016. Factors that require monitoring include livestock diseases and insecurity cases along Kerio valley which is limiting access to forage. 5.2 Summary of Recommendations \uf0b7 Provision of water treatment chemicals \uf0b7 Peace building initiatives \uf0b7 Drilling of boreholes especially in East Pokot \uf0b7 Training on water harvesting and conservation \uf0b7 Employment of more community health workers \uf0b7 Construction of cattle dips. \uf0b7 Drilling of boreholes in boarding schools \uf0b7 Increase coverage of de-worming in schools \uf0b7 ECDs to be included in School Meals Programme 14 Table 15: Sub-county food security ranking (worst to best) Sub County Food security Main food security threat (if any) rank (1-6) Mogotio 1 Poor crop performance High incidences of livestock diseases Long trekking distances to water points in isolated areas East Pokot (Tiaty) 2 Poor crop performance High incidences of livestock diseases Long trekking distances to water points in isolated areas Incidences of insecurity Baringo North 3 Incidences of livestock diseases Marigat 4 Incidences of flooding Baringo Central 5 Eldama Ravine 6 (Koibatek) 6.0 ANNEXES 6.1 On-going Interventions by Sector Table 16: On-going interventions by sector Sub\u2013 Intervention Location No. of Implement Impacts in terms Cost Time Frame county beneficiaries ers of food security (Ksh) Agriculture ALL Post\u2013harvest ALL 20,000 MOALF Provision and 5M One year technologies and preservation of promotion stakeholders food Livestock All Beehives All 50 groups Department Improved 1.89M July 2016\u2013 distribution of diversification of August 2016 Agriculture livelihood Livestock strategies and fisheries- BCG All Disease All County\u2013wide Department Reduced 4M July 2016\u2013 control(vaccinations of incidences of October 2016 against BQ,LSD and Agriculture livestock sheep and goat Livestock diseases leading pox) and to improved fisheries- livestock body County and condition national govt All Pasture distribution , All 8370 National Increase in 38. 3M July 2015\u2013 construction of hay households government pasture August and establishment production for 2016.supported by of pasture plots in improved DRSLP project Baringo North livestock productivity 15 All Construction of 7 Baringo 2300 Department Increased access 53.4M July 2015- markets North, households of to markets for December 2016. Tiaty and Agriculture livestock and 4 markets Koibatek Livestock livestock supported by and products. DRSLP project at fisheries- a cost of KES BCG and 51M National government All Construction of Koibatek 100,000 Department Reduce milk and 27 M July 2015\u2013 milk cooler houses households. of post \u2013 harvest December and milk processing Agriculture losses and 2017.total project plant Livestock increased milk to cost 200M and value\u2013addition. fisheries and dairy farmers and value chain stakeholders Water Mochon Chebinyiny borehole Chebinin 200HH ADS Improve water 2.3M 2 Months goi rehabilitation y availability, accessibility and quality Ilchamus Silonga borehole Salabani 120HH County Improve water 1M 6Months rehabilitation government availability, accessibility and quality All Rehabilitation of Vulnerab 4500HH KRC, ADS, Improve 229M July 2016 \u2013 June water supplies and le WV, GDC, availability and 2017 capacity building on livelihoo RLRP, accessibility water management ds of BCG, NG Pastoral, Agro \u2013 Pastoral , ALL Drilling and Vulnerab 3000HH ADS, WV, Improve 35M March 2016 \u2013 equipping of le GDC, availability, Dec 2016 strategic boreholes livelihoo W/BANK , accessibility and ds of RLRP, stability Pastoral, BCG, NG Agro \u2013 Pastoral , Education Baringo Provision of food Kipkata, 19882 GOK, Increased 60 M Ongoing north items Ngorora, County enrolment, (HGSMP,CSMP) Sibilo, government Academic Kelyo, ,parents, performance, high Bartum world transition rates Kaboskei vision, And retention. Action aid. 16 Baringo Planting mangoes Primary 1210 BOM, -Increased access 5.5 M Ongoing Central and pawpaws schools 500 teachers, retention and and Peace meeting Kaptara pupils transition rates at Marigat School water pan primary community all levels, school -improved health status Health and Nutrition All sub\u2013 Scale up health All the All Children MOH Reduced cost of counties facilities Immunizi 6-59 months A.C.F food stuff due to implementing full ng health (5900 AMPATH reduction in package of HINI facilities children) PLUS morbidity and 2.2 M Ongoing ECDE in West Pokot sub- county All Management of County 7362 MOH, Good health and 1.5 M Ongoing Acute Malnutrition wide WVK improve (IMAM) economic wellbeing of the community All IYCN Interventions County 105321 MOH, Good health and 1.2 M Ongoing (EBF and timely wide WVK improve introduction of economic complementary wellbeing of the foods) community All Iron folate County 26596 MOH, Good health and 0.8 M Ongoing supplementation wide WVK improve among pregnant economic women wellbeing of the community 6.2 Proposed Intervention Table 17: Proposed interventions Sub- Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time county beneficiaries Implementers Resources/cost Resources Frame Health All Rapid Baringo 90,000 under- MOH/NDMA/ 1m 300,000 October- assessment and County-all five WVK/KRC Dec 2016 mass screening pastoral and agro pastoral zones All Conduct and Pastoral and 20,000 MOH,WVK,K 1m 200,000 October- scale-up of agro\u2013pastoral RC,UNICEF Dec 2016 integrated zones outreaches 17 All Link the 100 facilities MOH/WVK/K 900,000 100,000 October- malnourished in the County 7,362 RC/WFP Feb 2017 from facilities to food distribution points. All the Implement the All livelihood 20,000 BCG/WVK/K 2,000,000 100,000 October -. existing BCC zones caregivers per RC Dec 2016 Strategy to subcounty-120 improve feeding caregivers practices among children below six months All Train CHVs on All the All sub\u2013 BCG/WVK/U 1,000,000 100,000 October -. nutrition livelihood counties NICEF Dec 2016 technical zones module Livestock All Pasture seed All 520 Department of 2.4 M 1M July 2016- distribution, households Agriculture October pasture Livestock and 2016 harvesting and fisheries-BCG conservation support (mowers and balers) All Beehives All 100 groups Department of 1.6M 1M July 2016- distribution Agriculture December Livestock and 2016 fisheries-BCG and stakeholders All Disease All Countywide BCG, National 6M 2M July 2016- control(vaccinat government September ions against and 2016 FMD,CCPP,NC Development D,LSD) partners and All Livestock All 40 groups Development 3.0M 2 M July 2016- upgrading partners and March (bucks and National 2016 rams) government Water All Water treatment Vulnerable 1450HH ACTED, KRC, 2.5 M Local 1 \u2013 chemicals/ HHs across ADS, WV, capacity ( 3months water purifiers \u2013 all livelihood GDC, RLRP, Community de-fluoridation zones BCG and County kits Organization al Structures and technical staff) 18 All Rehabilitation ORO SDA 800HH ACTED, KRC, 28 M Existing 1 \u2013 3 of broken down BH, ADS, WV, infrastructure months water and SirataBH, GDC, RLRP and technical irrigation KirimBH, staff facilities and Kapkun, capacity\u2013 building on water and irrigation management Agriculture East Expansion of All 3000 County Govt, 1 B land 3years Pokot irrigation NIB,KVDA All Increase in All 3000 -MOALF 24 million Technical 1 year provision of personnel to Jan. \u2013Nov. farm inputs to train farmers 2017 farmers (seed, planting and top dressing fertilizers Education All Expand SMP / All locations 150 schools Ministry of 5 0 M Human Sep.2016- HGSMP/ education resource 2018 CBMP and WFP relief food and provision of food storage facilities All Purchase of: bee All schools 155 schools -Teachers 310 M Land 2016-2018 hives, goats and (18852 pupils) -Parents grazing field support value -BOM bushes for chain of the -Education hives products office 6.2 Food Intervention Required Table 18: Proposed population in need of assistance Sub Population in the Population in Proposed Remarks County sub\u2013county need mode of ( percent range intervention min \u2013 max) Mogotio 48,129 8\u201310 Mugurin, Kamar,Molos, Kisanana, Kapyemit, CFA Olkokwe, Majimoto East Pokot 133,189 8\u201310 Akwicahtis, Katungura, Riongo, Nginyang, Amaya, CFA Komolion, Kapau Baringo 93,789 1\u20135 Sibilo,Yatya ,Chemoe,Kalabata,Kampi samaki North CFA Baringo 84,256 1\u20135 Bekibon, Mbechot, Chepkoimet, Poi, Kokwa island South CFA Baringo 78,095 1\u20135 CFA Salawa, Kapkelelwa, Katunoi, 19 Central Koibatek 118,103 - Table 19: Non-food interventions (by sector) Sub- Intervention Location No. of Proposed Require Available Time county beneficiaries Implement d Resources Frame ers Resource s/cost Agriculture East Expansion of All 3000 County 1 B land 3years Pokot irrigation Govt, NIB,KVDA All Increase in All 3000 -MOALF 24 -Technical 1 year provision of farm million personnel to train Jan. \u2013Nov. inputs to farmers 2017 farmers(seed, planting and top dressing fertilizers Livestock All Pasture seed All 520 households Department 2.4 M 1M July 2016- distribution, of October Pasture Agriculture 2016 harvesting and Livestock conservation and support (mowers fisheries- and balers) BCG All Beehives All 100 groups Department 1.6M 1M July 2016- distribution of December Agriculture 2016 Livestock and fisheries- BCG and stakeholder s All Disease All Countywide BCG, 6M 2M July 2016- control(vaccinatio National Septembers ns against government 2016 FMD,CCPP, and NCD,LSD) Developme nt partners and All Livestock All 40 groups Developme 3.0M 2 M July 2016- upgrading (bucks nt partners March and rams) and 2016 National government 20 Water All Water treatment Vulnerable 1450HH ACTED, 2.5 M Local capacity ( 1 \u2013 chemicals/ water HHs across all KRC, ADS, Community and 3Months purifiers \u2013 de- livelihood WV, GDC, County fluoridation kits zones RLRP, Organizational BCG Structures and technical staff) All Rehabilitation of ORO SDA BH, 800HH ACTED, 28 M Existing 1 \u2013 3 broken down SirataBH, KRC, ADS, infrastructure and Months water and KirimBH, WV, GDC, technical staff irrigation Kapkun, RLRP facilities and capacity\u2013building on water and irrigation management (WASH) Health and nutrition All Rapid assessment Baringo 90,000 under- MOH/NDM 1m 300,000 October- and mass County-all five A/WVK/KR Dec 2016 screening pastoral and C agro pastoral All Conduct and Pastoral and 20,000 MOH,WVK, 1m 200,000 October- scale-up of agro pastoral KRC,UNIC Dec 2016 integrated EF outreaches All Link the 100 facilities in MOH/WVK/ 900,000 100,000 October- malnourished the County 7,362 KRC/WFP Feb 2017 from facilities to food distribution points. All Implement the All livelihood 20,000 BCG/WVK/ 2,000,00 100,000 October -. existing BCC zones caregivers per KRC 0 Dec 2016 Strategy to subcounty-120 improve feeding caregivers practices among children below six months All Train CHVs on All the All sub BCG/WVK/ 1,000,00 100,000 October -. nutrition technical livelihood counties UNICEF 0 Dec 2016 module zones Education All Expand SMP / All locations 150 schools Ministry of 5 0 M Human Sep.2016- HGSMP/ CBMP education resource 2018 and relief food WFP and provision of food storage facilities 21 All Purchase of bee All schools 155 -Teachers 310 M Land 2016-2018 hives, goats and schools(18852 -Parents Grazing field support value pupils) -BOM Bushes for hives chain of the -Education products office 22 - Page 19\n\nBARINGO COUNTY 2016 LONG RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group1 (KFSSG) and County Steering Group, Baringo County August 2016 1 Thomas M. Kangethe (Ministry of Water and Irrigation) Eunice Mutuku (World Vision)",
            "Baringo_LRA_2021.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2021 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), July 2021 The 2021 long rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) that were drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition sectors and supported remotely by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the long rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the long rains of 2021. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The main drivers of food insecurity are poor rainfall performance, insecurity, COVID-19 pandemic, crop failure, crop pests and livestock diseases. Rainfall performance was poor, characterized by late onset and poor spatial and temporal distribution however, off season showers were received during the month of July. About 50 percent of the crop failed in the Mixed Farming and Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones while cases of crop pests involving Fall Army worms were reported and therefore projected maize yield is estimated to be about 45 percent of the long-term average (LTA). The impacts of the COVID -19 pandemic are still affecting food security by affecting movements of food commodities due to restrictions that have been put in place by the Government. Cases of insecurity were experienced in the Pastoral Livelihood Zone. The acreage put under rain fed agriculture and the projected yield is below the long-term average (LTA) while household maize stocks are slightly above the LTA. For the Irrigated Agriculture Livelihood Zone, both acreage and the projected yield is above the LTA. Forage conditions are fair to good while water sources for livestock are normal and livestock body condition is fair to good. Return water distances were above normal and water consumption per household per day was below normal though this is expected to change due to the impact of the off-season rains received in July. Markets were operating normally except in the pastoral areas whereby they were affected by insecurity. The most common diseases in both the under five children and the general population are upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), diarrhea and malaria while Vitamin A coverage has increased compared to last year, a factor that was contributed by measles campaign. Immunization coverage was over 100 percent as a result of the measles campaign while nutrition status in children of under five years of age was stable. The Pastoral livelihood zone had 39 and three percent of the households with borderline and poor food consumption score respectively. The SMART survey findings of July 2021 show that the Pastoral livelihood zone has a global acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) prevalence of 24.4 percent (Critical) and 3.9 percent respectively while stunting prevalence is very high at 40.7 percent. The Pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zones were applying unusual coping strategies in accessing food. Latrine coverage in the Pastoral livelihood zone is very low compared to the county average while proportion of households accessing water from protected sources was less than 30 percent. Decline in school enrolment has been attributed to prolonged school holidays occasioned by COVID- 19 pandemic, teenage pregnancy, early marriage among other causes. The Pastoral Livelihood Zone is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The Mixed Farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... i 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1 County background .................................................................................................................... 1 Objectives of the assessment ...................................................................................................... 1 2 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ................................. 3 Rainfall performance .................................................................................................................. 3 InsecurityConflict ...................................................................................................................... 3 COVID-19 pandemic .................................................................................................................. 3 Other shocks and hazards .......................................................................................................... 4 3 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ........................................ 4 Availability ................................................................................................................................... 4 Crop production .................................................................................................................. 4 Cereal stocks ........................................................................................................................ 6 Livestock production .......................................................................................................... 7 Livestock Migration .......................................................................................................................... 10 Impact on availability ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Terms of trade .......................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.3 Income sources ......................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.4 Water access and availability .................................................................................................. 15 3.2.5 Food consumption .................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.6 Coping strategy ........................................................................................................................ 20 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns .......................................................................................... 20 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation ..................................................................... 21 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity ................................................................................. 22 3.3.4 Health and nutrition sector in COVID-19 context ................................................................ 24 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level actions ............................ 24 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response .......... 24 3.3.7 Sanitation and hygiene............................................................................................................. 24 3.5.1 Enrolment ................................................................................................................................. 27 3.5.4 School feeding ........................................................................................................................... 27 3.5.3 Inter sector links....................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.1 Phase classification ................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.2 Summary of findings ................................................................................................................ 31 5.1.3 Sub county ranking .................................................................................................................. 32 5.3.1 Food interventions.................................................................................................................... 37 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................................ 38 1 INTRODUCTION County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the ssouth, Uasin Gishu 22 to the south west, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the 43 west. The county covers an 31 approximate area of 11,015 square kilometres (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing Agro pastoral Pastoral Mixed farming Irrigated cropping and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The Figure 1: Population by livelihood zones county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones. Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2021 Long Rains Food Security Assessment (LRA) was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2021 long rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment was aimed: i. To ascertain at livelihood level, the quantity and quality of the 2021 long rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation. ii. To obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs iii. To assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods iv. To assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. v. To take stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programmes that promote preparedness and build household resilience. vi. To assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2021 Long Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 12th to 16th July 2021. The process began with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) protocols. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY Rainfall performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April- May (MAM) which extends to July. The short rains season is in October-November and December. The onset of the season was late in the third dekad of April compared to the normal of second dekad of March. The county received an average of 294mm of rainfall compared to a normal of 299mm. Most parts in the northern part of the county comprising of Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties received an average of 76-114 percent of the normal rains while the Southern part comprising of Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine and Mogotio sub counties received an average of 76-114 percent of the normal rains (Figure 2). The spatial distribution of the rains was poor with the bulk of the rains being received in high land areas of Figure 2: Rainfall performance Mixed farming livelihood zone. The temporal distribution was very poor with about 40-50 percent of the rains being received in the first dekad of May. The cessation of the season was normal in the third dekad of May. However, the county has experienced significant off-season rains in the month of July. InsecurityConflict Insecurity is posing challenges in the Pastoral areas of the County mostly in Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties whereby incidents of banditry were reported. The government mounted major security operations in the area in a bid to bring the situation under control. The most affected wards were Mukutani in Baringo South sub county and parts of Mochongoi ward specifically in Tuyotich, Kapkechir, Kasiela, Ngelecha, Sinoni and Chebinyini areas. In Tiaty sub county, the most affected wards were Ribko and Silale. Households in the pastoral areas that were affected by insecurity did experience stress in accessing food and other non-food commodities due to poor market operations resulting in poor livestock prices hence low-income opportunities. Normalcy is slowly returning in the affected areas with the government reopening livestock markets in July. COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 restriction measures are still affecting market operations. The night curfews are hampering movement of goods and services while uptake of health services is still low compared to the previous seasons due to fear of contracting the disease at the health facility. Other shocks and hazards Crop failure The county did experience crop failure due to poor rainfall distribution, affecting about 50 percent of the total crops planted with the most affected areas being Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo Central sub counties, resulting in a projected yield for maize being less than 50 percent of the LTA Fall Army worms (FAW) Incidents of crop pests involving fall army worms were observed on maize crop reported with 21 percent of the area planted being affected in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo Central Sub Counties. 3 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY Availability Crop production Long rains season are critical for crop production in the County, contributing about 80 percent of food requirement in the county. The rains are very important for recharging of water levels for irrigation and also farmers are contracted by seed companies. Baringo County has different ecological zones which are suitable for production of various crops. Table 1 shows main food crops grown in the County which include maize, beans, millets, Irish ppotatoes, ccowpeas and ssorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (Fruits and vegetables) and Cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum) Table 1: Contribution of crops to income and food Livelihood Crop Income Food Agropastoral Maize 10 90 Beans 15 85 Finger millet 40 60 Cowpeas 40 60 Mixed Maize 40 60 Beans 40 60 Finger millet 30 70 Irrigated Maize 80 20 Tomatoes 90 10 Water melons 90 10 Rain fed agriculture Table 2: Rain fed agriculture Crop Area planted Long Term 2021 Long rains Long Term during 2021 Average (5 year) season production Average (5 year) Long rains area planted during (90 kg bags) production during season the Short rains ProjectedActual the Short rains (Ha) season (Ha) season (90 kg bags) Maize 31,083 41,133 466,245 1,028,325 Sorghum 1,676 1,800 12,570 18,000 Beans 15,346 22,505 153,460 450,100 The area planted during the 2021 long rains with maize was 78 percent of the targeted area (Table 2) and this is due to below average rains, the most affected sub- counties are Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South and Tiaty. The crops are exhibiting different crop conditions with areas along Tugen hills and upper parts of Eldama Ravine having good crop but the rest of the crop is in poor conditions in other areas of the county. There has been reported infestation by field pests, 21 percent of the area planted was affected by fall army worm, reported in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo Central Sub Counties, this was because of the dry conditions. The projected production for maize is expected to be 45 percent of the LTA. The average crop failure in sub-counties are; -10 percent in Eldama Ravine, 70 percent in Mogotio,55 percent in Baringo North, 50 percent in Baringo Central-, 60 percent in Baringo South- and 50 percent of irrigated crop while the county average is 50 percent. The area under sorghum decreased by seven percent as farmers heeded extension advisories on adverse climate. Irrigated crop production Table 3:Irrigated crop production Crop Area Long Term 2021 Long rains Long Term planted Average (3 season Average during years) production (3 years) the 2021 area planted (90 kg production Long during Long bagsMT) during Long rains rains season Projectedactual rains season season (ha) (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 50 44 1000 436 Beans 18 24 216 480 Tomatoes 84 119 1260 2235 Water melons 32 85 480 1700 Seed Maize 2,600 1,524 78,052 57,150 The area under maize was above the LTA by 16 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most farmers who can access irrigation water opted to plant maize in the schemes and by pumping water from rivers (Table 3). This was mainly in three Sub- Counties where there was expansion in acreage under irrigation namely Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The area under seed maize increased as more schemes were engaged in seed production like Loboi Lorwai irrigation scheme in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. In other irrigation schemes there was reduced river flows which was caused by depressed rains hence 50 percent crop failure is likely to be observed. Most of the crops in irrigation schemes are for income especially seed maize, water melons and tomatoes. Men are the income earners from the crops but women and youth take care of the crops. But in marketing women undertake the business activities. About 20-40 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was not utilized due to low water flows from the rivers. Cereal stocks Table 4:Cereal stocks Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Green grams Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Households 302,458 290,864 - - 617 468 503 620 Traders 45,893 34,928 2,087 1,056 215 326 130 150 Millers 12,362 8,382 - - - - - - Food - - - - - - - - AidNCPB Totals 360,713 334,174 2,087 1,056 832 794 633 770 The stock held by households is within the LTA (Table 4) and this is due to the carry over stocks from last years harvest which was very good. The bulk of the stock is in Eldama Ravine sub- ccounty at 60 percent whereby they didnt have avenue for stock disposal such as National Cereal and Produce Board. Most farmers in other areas depleted their stocks as they bought inputs for the delayed long rains, in a normal year by now most of the maize crop would be in milkygrain filling stage and beans being harvested, this year most of crops are at vegetative stage and permanent wilting stage. The traders also had their stock 31 percent above the LTA due to replenishment of their stocks in speculation of price increase following the poor performance of the long rains season. In the affected areas, price of cereals has gone up thus straining the families economically. About 50 percent of households depend on the markets for their food supply, most of them from Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones while few are from Mixed farming livelihood zone. The increase in food prices has also influenced the increase in stocks by traders as compared to last year when the prices were relatively low. The local millers stocks are higher than the LTA by 47 percent. This is because most households are purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (Posho Millers) and also the anticipated looming crop failure plus increase in cereal prices which is good for millers and traders. Traders and millers have more stocks in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest, the available stocks are expected to last for two months in the Mixed farming livelihood zone against a normal of four months, while in Agro pastoral livelihood zone, the stocks may last for one to three months. The county has not experienced food safety issues that include aflatoxin and high moisture content levels. Livestock production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put in effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The long rains in Baringo County are very important for pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by- products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are conserved for future use. These by-products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards of the county. The table below (Table 5) shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone contribution Food Income Mixed farming 25 23 Irrigated cropping 25 8 Agro-pastoral 20 50 Pastoral 21 88 Pasture and browse condition The present forage condition and expected duration to last is driven by the effects of the long and off-season rains. Cumulatively, there was a poor performance of both the short rains and the long rains seasons leading to decline in forage quantity and quality. The pastures are expected to last for three months in Mixed and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones which is normal and 2.5 months in Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones against a normal of three months (Table Locust invasions affected pasture production in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South and Baringo Central. The hotspots include; Kolloa, Tirioko, Ribkwo, in Tiaty; Emining and Kisanana in Mogotio; Tenges, in Baringo Central; Mochongoi and Mukutani in Baringo South and Kabartonjo, Saimo Soi, Saimo Kipsaraman and Barwessa in Baringo North. About 30,000 hectares of pasture and browse (less than five percent of forage land) were affected by desert locusts. The desert locust impacts included; destruction of pastures, loss of livestock and decrease in honey production (Through chemical sprays for locust control which affected bee hives). Presently the factors limiting forage access are persistent insecurity tensions caused by banditry attacks around Saimo Soi, Kalabata, Arabal and Kapedo areas. Table 6:Pasture and browse conditions Livelihood Pasture Browse Zone Condition Projected Factors Condition Projected Duration to last limiting Duration to last (Months) access (month) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Good Good 2.5 3 No limit Good Good 3 farming to Fair to fair 3 Irrigated Good Good 2.5 3 No limit Good Good 3 3 cropping to Fair to fair Agro- Fair Good 2 3 No limit Fair Good 2.5 Pastoral Fair to Good 2 3 Insecurity Fair Good 2.5 3 poor tensions Baled hay status Table 7: Baled hay status Livelihood No. of Storage No. of Average Average Comments E.g. Zone Hay Capacity Bales Weight price per percentage held by Stores (Total currently per bale bale farmers and other number being held (in Kgs) (Kshs.) Institutions of bales) Baringo 20 10,500 6,500 15 400 2 are held by KVDA South 88 Held by farmers Baringo 10 20,000 6,000 15 200 30 by farmers and Central 70 by Association. ERavine 30 550,000 250,000 15 150-200 70 by farmers 20 FCS 10 by groups Tiaty 0 0 0 0 0 NA Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo 25 280,000 142,000 15 225 100 by farmers from North community stores and traders Mogotio 7 550,000 390,000 15 200 75By farmer groups 25 by individuals There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder production but there are institution doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST (Table 7). The pasture species being grown is mainly Cenchrus ciliaris. Water for livestock Sources of water for livestock were normal although they had different recharge levels (Table 8). Water pans recharge levels were at 30-50 percent and the situation was below normal. The low levels are attributed to underperformance of long rains and high temperatures and hence high transpiration rates. -The variation in watering frequency is due to availability or lack of water, trekking distance, and insecurity. Table 8:Livestock water sources Livelihood Sources zone Current Normal Mixed farming Rivers, springs, piped water, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, shallow wells and Rivers, shallow wells and springs. cropping springs. Agro-pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, rivers Streams, water pans, Boreholes Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans. Water-pans, Bore-holes rivers The trekking distance increased as compared to last season and the same time last year (Table 9). The camel performance is barely affected by watering frequency. The adult males and male youth usually water the animals. There is no known effect of Covid 19 on livestock water. However, there is the hazard of the COVID - 19 pandemic occurrence and spike as the lack of health restriction protocols are not followed in watering areas where they converge. Table 9:Return trekking distances, expected duration and watering frequency Livelihood Return trekking Expected duration to Watering frequency zone distances (Kms) last (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed 1-3 1-2.5 Throughout Throughout 1-3 1-2.5 farming Irrigated 1-3 1-2.5 Throughout Throughout 1-3 1-2.5 cropping Agro-pastoral 4-10 4-6 2 3 4-10 4-6 Pastoral 6-12 4-7 2 3 6-12 4-7 Livestock productivity Livestock body condition Despite the underperformance of long and short rains, the cumulative effects of 2019 short rains and 2020 long rains have sustained livestock body condition which is currently fair to good for the big stock and good for the small stock. COVID 19 has not been reported as having affected livestock and hence has no effect on livestock body condition. Birth rate The general birth rates slightly decreased across all livelihood zones, from three to 2.5 percent. The birth rates slightly declined, being attributed to below average pastures across all livelihood zones during the conception and gestation periods. The declined rainfall performance affected all contributing factors including, good nutrition, and increased trekking distance. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Table 10: Tropical livestock unit Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 2.8 3 5.8 5.5 Irrigated cropping 2.9 3.5 6.2 6.5 Agro-pastoral 4.4 5 7 7 Pastoral 5.8 6 9 7 Average 4.0 4.5 7 9 The present TLU possession per household which are slightly higher than the last assessment, are attributed by continued good rainfall performance during the 2019 short rains and the 2020 long rains seasons. The average translated to four LTUs in poor households as compared to seven in medium households (Figure 10). The present TLUs are compared to 3.8 in poor and 6.9 in medium income households in the last assessment. There was slight increase in TLUs as compared to last assessment. Milk production, consumption and prices Milk production decreased, leading to increase in milk prices (Table 11). The decrease is attributed by low quality pastures and high temperatures which affected feed conversion efficient of lactating cows. The decrease of milk production compares with last season and LTA. There was decrease in household milk consumption, and increase in milk prices, being attributed to decrease in milk production. Household milk consumption continued being high due to prolonged closure of schools. The closure has been due to restriction brought about by COVID-19 pandemic. Table 11: Milk production, consumption and prices Livelihood Milk production per Milk consumption per Prices (KES) zone household (Litres) household (Litres) Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed Farming 5 8 1.5 5 45 40 Irrigated 5 8 1 5 50 45 Agro-pastoral 2.5 4 1 3 60 50 Pastoral 2 3 0.5 6 75-90 60 Livestock Migration There was minimal internal migration due to available water and insecurity tensions, and cases of floods and swelling of Lake Baringo and Lake Bogoria. There was outward migration to Laikipia, from Churo Amaya and Korossi wards. Livestock migration will likely be minimal as the off- season rains received in the county will impact positively on pasture and water availability. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities There were few disease cases reported as captured in Table 12 which did not warrant quarantine as per spatial occurrence. Vaccination against lumpy skin disease (LSD), CCPP and PPR was done in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub counties. Table 12:Livestock diseases Sub-county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken lost (Vaccinations) Baringo CCPP Endemic Goats No Vaccinations Central livestock LSD Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations deaths FMD Kapkelelwa Cattle No action reported Tiaty CCPP Sub-county wise Goats NR Ring vaccination PPR Sub-countywide Sheep and NR Ring vaccination goats done FMD Kolloa reported but Cattle camels NR No vaccination not significant done LSD Loyamorok, Silale, Cattle NR No vaccination Tirioko done Mogotio PPR Subcounty-wise SheepGoats NR No vaccination CCPP Subcounty-wise Goats NR No vaccination Anthrax Kiptoim Cattle NR No vaccination FMD Rosogaa, Lombala, Cattle NR No vaccination Kapcheluguny, done Eldama FMD Koibatek Cattle Suspected No vaccination Ravine done Rabies Ravine, Perkerra, cattle 9 cases No vaccination Lembus Kwen done ECF ,Ravine cattle 1 case No vaccination Baringo south CCPP Nyimbei Goats 20 9,640 LSD Marigat, Loboi, Cattle No vaccination Salabani done Baringo north CCPP Sub-countywide Goats No deaths Ring vaccination (Endemic) done PPR No reports Shoats No deaths None vaccinated LSD Poi, Rondinin Cattle 10 deaths Vaccination not yet planned. Rabies All wards dogs No deaths 170 vaccinated Impact on availability The County has adequate maize stocks that should be able to sustain households for at least two months from now while pulses availability is not adequate in meeting the needs of the households for now. The projected yield for both maize and pulses is below LTA thus the county will have to depend on supplies from outside the county to meet the demand. Milk production is below LTA and therefore it is affecting household milk consumption while the deficit has to be taken care of through purchasing in the local markets. TLU are below normal but are recovering progressively while livestock body condition is fair to good. 3.2 Access Market operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and lastly, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. Other than in Pastoral areas where there were depressed market operations due to insecurity challenges, the rest of the county experienced near normal market operations. COVID -19 pandemic has also affected market operations especially for livestock whereby livestock movement is normally preferred at night but due to curfew this is no longer possible. The main livestock market of Nginyang in Tiaty sub county remained non- operational from early this year until July when it was reopened following an improvement in the security situation. Apart from the pastoral markets and more so in Tiaty sub county, the rest of the markets in the county were well stocked with commodities while the numbers of market players were normal. In the Pastoral areas, livestock prices were depressed and there were fewer market players compared to normal due to movement restrictions resulting from the ongoing security operations. In the Mixed and Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones, there were less cereals in the market with even fewer buyers and this was due to low cereal demand as households are still keeping carry-over stocks from the previous long rains season. Market prices Maize prices The average maize prices were relatively 50.00 stable in July compared to the H previous month at S K 30.00 Ksh 46kg (Figure 3). s The prices were e 20.00 ir below the long-term p 10.00 average at this time ia 0.00 of the year by 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec percent. The stability in maize prices can be attributed to availability of maize Figure 3:Maize prices stocks at the household level in the Mixed farming livelihood zone especially in Eldama Ravine sub county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.47 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg Goat prices The average price of a medium sized goat by July was stable at . Ksh.2,675, as s 2500 K compared to the s 2000 previous month at c ir 1500 Ksh. 2,646 (Figure t 1000 4). The price was o above the short-term G 500 average (STA) by 0 four percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Figure 4:Goat prices Ksh. 3,833 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The stability in price was as a result of stable livestock body condition 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade were at 80.00 59 by July, an 70.00 increase of e four percent la 60.00 in comparison m 50.00 to the r f 40.00 previous ht ga 30.00 month u oo g whereby a b a 20.00 e f o sale of one z ia 10.00 goat was able m to fetch 57 kgs f o of maize g (Figure 5). STA 2021 This has been attributed to Figure 5:Terms of trade relatively stable maize prices and slight increase in goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 88 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 52. 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, casual waged labour among others as illustrated in table 13 below. Table 13: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed LZ Farming LZ Livestock Production 88 50 5 23 Food Crop Production - 4 5 5 Cash crop production - - 59 30 Small Business 1 4 5 7 Casual Waged Labour 1 15 10 20 Formal Waged Labour 1 5 4 5 Poultry Production 2 5 3 1 Fishing - 10 4 - 3.2.4 Water access and availability Major water sources The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use include; Water Sources For Baringo County water pans, rivers, dams, lakes, - July 2021 streamssprings, shallow wells and 7 12 boreholes (Figure 6)). Most of these Boreholes sources are concentrated in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones where it receives more rainfall than in Pastoral 29 Rivers and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Water is more accessible in mixed 12 Pans Dams farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones than in pastoral livelihood zone where its poorly served Figure 6:Water sources by rivers. Over 70 percent of the boreholes in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are operational while the rest are not due to electro-mechanical breakdowns (Table 14). These boreholes include; Akorayan, Ngaratuko, chepkalacha among others. Water quality challenges were experienced in some boreholes in Kinyach area in Bartabwa ward, Taimon and Sibilo sub-locations in Saimo-Soi ward and areas of Baringo south which rendered the boreholes non -operational as they contained high fluoride levels. Table 14:Water sources Ward Water No. of No. of Projected Normal Current Livelihood Source Normal Current Duration Duration Water zone (Three (3) Operational Operational (Operational that Level in major Sources Sources) Water of Full sources) Last in Capacity Months after Recharged by the Rains Pastoral Boreholes 96 90 6 months Over 6 Over 30 Water pan 78 72 2 months 2-3 30-50 Rivers 6 4 2 months 4-5 30-50 Agro- Boreholes 66 61 6 months Over 6 Over 40 Pastoral months Water 28 28 2 months 3-4 30-40 pans months springs 25 25 2months 4-5 30-40 Mixed Boreholes 44 44 6 months Over 6 Over 50 Farming months streams 36 36 2-3 months Over 6 60-70 springs 155 155 2-4 months Over 6 60-70 Irrigated Rivers 6 4 2 months Over 6 30-50 Shallow 10 10 1-2 months 3-4 30-50 wells months swamps 3 3 1-2 months Over 6 30-50 The households using protected water sources are at 60 percent. Water in open sources is free while in protected sources the cost is stable at ksh.3 -5 but the final cost will depend on transport cost of the water to the households. The cost of a 20-litre jerry can cost ksh.20-50 depending on the destination of water and that 20 percent of households rely entirely on water venders for domestic use. These are areas of Kisanana and Emining wards, lower part of Saimo-Soi ward at Akorayan and Loruk sub-locations. The reasons for relying on vendors are long travelling distances to water sources, limited available protected water sources, unavailable water sources and poor quality of water in some water sources. COVID-19 regulations of frequent washing of hands is not observed due to high cost of water in these households. The most concentrated water points were found in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zones where water sources are limited (Table 15). These sources get congested when there is breakdown of the nearby water points and also when the other water sources have been depleted. The congestion at water sources can increase the spread of COVID- 19 pandemic amongst the community members. By ensuring optimum operation of water facilities will reduce congestion at water sources hence spread of COVID-19 will be reduced amongst community members. Table 15: Most concentrated water points Ward Actual Name Normal Current Reason(s) for Variation Livelihood of the Water No. of No. of zone Point households households Served being Served Pastoral Ngoswe 220 500 Mechanical breakdown of borehole Ngaratuko and Namba boreholes Chepkewel 250 600 It is the only available water borehole source with good quality water. There are electro-mechanical breakdowns of Kipchemoi borehole Kapkun 200 450 Breakdown of Mangar intake Endao 1200 2300 It has high yield with good quality borehole water. Other nearby sources have dried up Lelen borehole 1800 2500 Is the only available source which is operational in the area Mixed Mochongoi 600 1250 -Mechanical breakdown of farming borehole Manwari borehole Water Accessibility and Utilization According to Table 16, the average distances to domestic water sources were above normal for all livelihood zones but is projected to reduce significantly due to the on- going off season rains while cost of water remained normal. There was no waiting time for all open water sources in all livelihood zones whereas in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones waiting time increased due to the long queues in the concentrated water points. Water consumption per person per day reduced in all livelihood zones and this was attributed by the limited water sources but is projected to increase slightly with the on-going rains. Table 16:Water return distances, cost, waiting time and consumption Ward Return Cost of water at Waiting Time at Average Water livelihood Distances to source (ksh.per Source(minutes) consumption per zone Water for 20litrs) person per day Domestic use (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 5-6 6-7 3-5 3-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 10-15 Agro- 2-3 4-5 3-5 3-5 2-5 5-10 15-20 10-15 Mixed 1-2 2-4 3-5 3-5 0-1 1-5 20-25 15-20 Farming Irrigated 1-2 2-4 3-5 3-5 0-1 10-15 20-25 15-20 3.2.5 Food consumption Food Consumption Score P P r P P r P P r P P r P P r g e g e g e g e g e A t A t A t A t A t a a a a a g g g g g ir ir ir ir ir r r r r r I IPoor Borderline IAcceptable I I Figure 7: Food consumption score According to sentinel site data from the NDMA early warning system (EWS) for the months of July, the Pastoral livelihood zone had a significant proportion of households with a borderline and poor food consumption score and was consistent for the last four months (Figure 7). This was contributed by inadequate access to nutritious food stuffs due to the existing low purchasing power of the households among other factors. In the Irrigated cropping and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, all households have acceptable food consumption score because of availability of adequate cereal stocks carried over from the long rains season of 2020. Income emanating from sale of seed maize in Irrigated cropping zone also contributed in maintaining acceptable food consumption score. 3.2.6 Coping strategy Fishing Irrigated Agro pastoral Pastoral Figure 8: Coping strategy index Households in Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones employed more coping strategies at 19 and 15 respectively, and this was partly due to low purchasing power caused by less normal market operations caused by conflict and COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 8). In the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, households applied fewer coping strategies. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity for children under five URTI Diarrhoea Malaria Figure 9:Morbidity for children under five years of age The three most common diseases are Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) diarrhoea and malaria, which indicates a decline in trend in 2021compared to 2020 among children under the age of five (Figure 9). The decrease in malaria could be attributed to mass net distribution while decrease in diarrheal diseases could be attributed to promotion of hand washing in COVID-19 intervention measures Morbidity for General Population URTI Diarrhea Malaria Jan June 2021 Jan June 2020 Figure 10:Morbidity for general population As indicated in Figure 10, general population showed a slight increase in URTI and mmalaria cases in 2021 compared to the previous year. This could be attributed to poor adherence to COVID-19 measures and adults not making use of the recent distributed mosquito nets respectively. 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation 120.00 100.00 90.10 80.00 69.65 20.00 6-11 Months 12-59 Momth Figure 11: Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A coverage for the county between January and June 2021 compared to the same period 2020 indicate an increase in Vitamin A supplementation (Figure 11). The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 6-11 and 12-59 months can be attributed to Malezi Bora activities and Measles campaign that were undertaken recently. Immunization immunization coverage between January and June Jan June 2021 98.8 2021 increased to 106 percent, an Jan June 2020 increase of 7.2 Jan June 2021 percent up from Jan June 2020 106 98.8 percent compared to same period in 2020 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 (Figure 12). The 106 percent Figure 12: Immunization coverage coverage remained above the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for fully immunised children could be attributed to the just concluded Measles Reubella campaign as well as poor age estimates because child health cards were not being used, a factor that could have led to capturing of over age children. 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding and Supplementary Feeding New admissions Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding OTP 350 140 300 120 250 100 200 80 150 60 100 40 50 20 Jan June 2018 Jan June 2019 Jan June 2020 Jan June 2021 Figure 13:Therapeutic feeding New Outpatient Therapeutic Program admissions increased from January reaching its highest in March and dropped to its lowest in the month of May and started increasing and maintained an upward trend (Figure 12). This is attributed to availability of therapeutic feeds CHANIS Data (0-59 months underweight) 7 6.3 4.7 4.6 5 4.3 Figure 14:Percentage of underweight children under 5 years Figure 13 indicates percentage of underweight by CHANIS whereby there was lower trend in 2021 compared to 2020 same period though it follows almost the same trend (Figure 13). This could be attributed to stock out of nutrition commodities such as CSB in the year 2021. Mid upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) 5 6.0 4.0 M 2.0 Normal LTA 2021 Figure 15. Proportion of children at risk of malnutrition measured by Family MUAC The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has been on an increasing trend since February with a slight decrease in June 2021. The steady increase in the rate from January could be attributed to continuous depletion of food stocks and low milk availability during dry spell. SMART survey findings According to the SMART survey findings of July 2021 conducted in Tiaty sub county (Pastoral livelihood zone), the global acute malnutrition (GAM) was critical at 24.4 percent while severe acute malnutrition was at 3.9 percent. Stunting and underweight prevalence was very at 40.7 and 44.1 percent respectively while GAM by MUAC was critical at 9.8 percent. 3.3.4 Health and nutrition sector in COVID-19 context Currently most clients are utilizing public health facilities and the fear of COVID-19 has reduced among the community members. The number of supported outreach services have reduced due to security operation in Tiaty and lack of partner support in the six sub counties. The community health volunteers are applying the use of family MUAC tapes in assessing nutritional status of children under five years of age. At the moment, the Corn Soy Blend CSB is out of stock in all the sub counties. 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level actions The county has ensured that there are hand washing facilities in most of the public places including markets, supermarkets and kkiosks while the use of liky tins have been promoted by health workers and reinforced by public health officers. Most health workers have been supplied with essential supplies such as masks, sanitizers, hand washing facilities among others. The community engagement and messaging are carried out at the health facilities and use of local FM radio stations. From observations during the transect drive on adherence it was found that there is laxity in adherence to the COVID -19 protocols at the moment due to emerging beliefs and other issues that negatively affect control and prevention measures. Currently there are no social safety net programs. 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response The County has a functional nutrition technical forum which meets on quarterly basis, however the sub county nutrition technical forums are not functional apart from the one in Tiaty where the meeting is held once in a while. During the nutrition technical forum, the impact of COVID- 19 and nutrition programming are usually discussed. Nutrition team is involved in carrying out follow up and counselling of patient with lifestyle diseases and sensitizing communities through mother to mother support groups on COVID-19. 3.3.7 Sanitation and hygiene Interviews with the focused group discussions during the transect drive, majority of the households were not accessing their water from the protected sources (Table 17). Table 17: Protected water sources Water source Proportion of Protectedunprotected households in Bore holes 20 protected Rain water 10 Protected (Water tanks) Shallow wells 10 unprotected Rivers 20 unprotected Water vendors 30 protected Water springs 10 unprotected Water storage and treatment About 95 percent of households store water in Jerri cans, while only 60 percent cover their water ccontainers with lids. Some of the chemicals used in treating water include chlorine, water guard, aqua tabs and PUR. Interviews with the communities during the transect drive indicates that about 30 percent of the households were boiling their water, 20 percent were doing filtration while 50 percent were not treating their water by any means. Majority of the households carry water on their backs (human carriage) for those getting from rivers, shallow wells and water springs, while majority of those getting from water vendors use motor cycles and water tracks to transport water. There are high cases of diarrheal diseases amongst children below five years of age and this was reported in all sites visited during the transect drive. Hand washing at all 4 critical times After taking children to the toilet 97.1 Before eating 84.6 Before cooking 41.7 40.4 After toilet 19.8 2021 2019 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Figure 16: Hand washing practices According to the SMART survey findings of July 2021 done in Tiaty sub county, about 54 percent of the respondents were aware of the hand washing practices. For those who did hand washing, the majority did it before eating at 97.1 percent (Figure 15). Generally, hand washing practices have gone up compared to the last survey of 2019 and this was due to the impact of COVID 19 pandemic. The possible sources of contamination include river Chemususu Lokoiywa River in Baringo Central- (Sewage waste from nearby school). This has led to increase in diarrheal diseases and there has not been any intervention done but the case has been reported to county public health officials. In Loboi and Bekibon areas, there were high cases of diarrheal diseases being reported and this was attributed to water contamination by human waste. Majority of the households have knowledge on critical points where they practice hand washing after visiting toilet, before breastfeeding, before cooking, before eating.and after changing baby diapers. Latrine coverage latrine coverage is 90 about 42 percent with 80 Eldama Ravine sub 70 county having the 60 highest latrine 50 coverage at 78 percent 40 while areas in Pastoral 30 livelihood zone such 20 as Tiaty sub county 10 having the lowest 0 Eldama Baringo Baringo Mogotio Baringo Tiaty latrine coverage of Ravine Central South North less than five percent and thus practice open Figure 17: Latrine coverage defecation (Figure 17). 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 18: Food security indicators Indicator Short rains assessment, Long rains assessment, July, 2021 January, 2021 of maize stocks held by 84 104 households Livestock body condition Agro Pastoral Good-Fair Agro Pastoral Good to Fair (Cattle) Irrigated cropping Good Irrigated cropping Good Mixed Farming Good Mixed Farming Good Pastoral-all species Fair Pastoral-all species Fair to good Water consumption (litres Agro Pastoral 15-25 Agro Pastoral 10-15 per person per day Irrigated cropping 20-25 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Mixed Farming 20-25 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species 12-15 Pastoral-all species 10-15 Price of maize (per kg) 40 46 Distance to grazing Agro Pastoral 4-9 Agro Pastoral 4-10 Irrigated cropping 1-3 Irrigated cropping 1-3 Mixed Farming 1-3 Mixed Farming 1-3 Pastoral-all species 4-10 Pastoral-all species 6-10 Terms of trade (pastoral 75 59 zone) Coping strategy index County-13 County-13 Agro Pastoral-17 Agro Pastoral-19 Pastoral-13 Pastoral-15 Irrigated Cropping-4 Irrigated Cropping-3 Food consumption score Acceptable 72.9 Acceptable 69 Borderline 25.2 Borderline 29 Poor 1.9 Poor 2 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Enrolment Baringo comprises of 990 ECDE centres with an enrolment of 48,753 children, 729 primary schools with 136,308 pupils and 179 secondary schools with a combined enrolment of 44,662 students. There was a decline in enrolment at all levels of learning. A decline of 1.3 percent in enrolment was noted in ECDE while pprimary and secondary sections dropped by 1.4 and 9.2 percent respectively. This was attributed to by insecurity challenges in Pastoral areas, drought, lack of school fees as some parents were rendered jobless due to COVID-19 pandemic, early marriages, teen pregnancies, child labour in irrigated tomato farms and bodaboda riding. As at July 2021, grade 4 learners and class 8 are on hold till 25th, July 2021 when they will transit to the next level of grade 5 and Form 1 respectively. 3.5.2 Effects of COVID-19 in schools Due to effects of COVID-19, the schools are in term 3 of 2020 calendar from 10th May 2021 to 16th, July 2021 which usually was from September to November every year and this is confusing both the learners, parents and the community. Many livelihoods were affected more so in the hospitality industry, transport and other key sectors that resulted in job losses and income thus affecting payment of school fees by parents. Urban Rural migration due to economic hardships led to some decline of enrolment in urban schools compared to rural schools. No digital learning took place in all the sampled schools in Baringo while child labour cases rose along river Molo and River Perkerra where there are a lot of irrigation activities that requires labour. Rise in cases of early marriages and teen pregnancies was observed whereby up to about 20-40 percent of the sampled households reported being affected by teen pregnancies. Increased cultural practices and rites of passage such as circumcision, FGM were also observed. 3.5.3 Effects of long rains in schools There were no damages reported on any school infrastructure emanating from the long rains season. However, the poor performance of the season was associated with decline in enrolment of students mostly in the pastoral areas. 3.5.4 School feeding Baringo is listed among the 23 ASAL areas in Kenya and benefits from the national government funding for Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) through the ministry of education (MOE). The following sub counties are directly supplied with school meals; Baringo North all 153 primary schools, Marigat 108, East Tiaty 58, West Tiaty 78 and Baringo Central 34 primary school (Table 19). A total of 46,803 boys and 41,994 girls are fed in the county. Table 19:School feeding Sub Counties No. Of HGSMPLRPNON RSMP Total No. of Schools LRP Beneficiaries Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Baringo 34 3,392 3,340 0 0 3,392 3,340 Central Mogotio 107 10,928 10,165 0 0 10,928 10,165 Baringo South 108 12,708 12,169 0 0 12,708 12,169 Eldama Ravine 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 Baringo North 153 12,275 11,546 0 0 12,275 11,546 Tiaty 116 7,500 4,774 0 0 7,500 4,774 Sub Total 627 46,803 41,994 0 0 46,803 41,994 Total 88,797 0 88,797 3.5.3 Inter sector links The department of Health Services is planning to give vitamin A tablets to all the children under five years and deworm them while the department of water has procured hand washing containers for 367 ECDE centers. Some schools procured thermo guns using the money from national government. Girls in all the primary schools who required dignity kits did receive them free of charge and in the sampled schools during the assessment, it was observed that there were adequate stocks to last for one year. There was a challenge when girls were at home for the long holiday periods and were therefore not able to access the pads. Schools are being encouraged to have income generating activities (IGAs). Measles and rubella vaccines were administered to all learners aged 1-5 years and funded by ministry of health (MOH) and UNICEF 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumption According to FEWSNET seasonal forecast review of June 2021, based on the NMME and WMO forecasts, the October-December 2021 short rains season in Kenya is most likely to be below-average. However, the Meteorological department of Kenya has forecasted above normal off-season rains in July through to August in Baringo County. The security situation in the Pastoral areas is likely to stabilize following the ongoing security operations and consequently lead to resumption of normal market operations. Peace building efforts are paying off as some of the markets have been reopened for operation. Despite the ongoing vaccination drive, a limited vaccine supply is expected to slow down vaccination rates. COVID-19 related restrictions are likely to remain in place through at least the first half of the scenario period, impacting household income and food access significantly. However, some of these restrictions are expected to be lifted in October as vaccination rates increase and boost the economy to improve household income-earning opportunities and food security. Due to projected reduced cereal yield following the poor performance of the long rains season, household maize stocks are expected to decline significantly after two months from July, rendering most households to rely on markets for cereal access and consequently pushing up maize prices due to increased demand. From the analysis of, livestock prices from the NDMA EWS system, it is anticipated that they are likely to remain depressed in the Pastoral areas for the next one month but are expected to pick up to near normal due to the impact of the off-season July rains and the gradual reopening of the livestock markets. Rejuvenation of rangeland resources is expected to pick up in the next one month following receiving of the off-season rains in July which were fairly good and consequently, livestock body condition is expected to improve to good conditions. The off-season rains are expected to affect water sources positively, therefore improving on water recharge and shortening of water trekking distances to below average levels which should lead to improved water access, availability and utilization. 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six months August-September-October Minimal cases of conflict are expected to persist with the heavy presence of security on the ground is expected to tame a majority of the incidents allowing resumption of market operations in the Pastoral livelihood zone and therefore easing access to food sources. Livestock migration will be minimal as herders are likely to return to their normal grazing sites due to pasture recovery that is likely to take place in August while livestock body condition for the large stock will improve to good conditions. Milk production is expected to improve and increase milk availability at household level. Household maize stocks will remain near normal of LTA during the first month but will tend to decline to below normal by October. Livestock prices are expected to improve marginally mostly in the Pastoral livelihood zone while cereal prices will remain stable in the first two months but are expected to increase as the household stocks gets depleted. Recharge of water sources will be near normal in August but deteriorate towards October during the dry spell and therefore causing a drop in the household water consumption. Food consumption will remain poor in the Pastoral livelihood zone but fairly good in the rest of the county. However, food consumption will improve gradually towards October in the Pastoral livelihood zone as milk production and consumption will be enhanced due to the expected improvement in forage condition caused by the off-season rains of July. Households in Agropastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones are expected to continue employing more coping strategies in accessing food compared to the other livelihood zones due to the prevailing low purchasing power caused by poor market operations. The strategies include reduced number of meals per day, eating of less preferred food and limiting of meal portion size. Malnutrition cases are likely to remain above LTA especially in the Pastoral areas due to below average milk production and consumption. The county will remain in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity. November-December-January Due to the projected poor short rains performance, regeneration of forages will be poor and therefore leading to short lived improvement but below average pastures and browse. Recharge of water sources will also be poor leading to less water availability for both human and livestock. Cases of resource-based conflict are therefore likely to be experienced towards January in the Pastoral livelihood zone as communities competes for the scarce water and forage resources. Internal livestock migration will likely be experienced by January in search of pastures and water, a factor that is also likely to trigger more conflict in the known hot spots such as Mukutani ward. Livestock body condition will likely be fair to good for the big stocks but may deteriorate further by January, causing a decline in both milk production and milk consumption. Milk prices will likely shoot up by November and will likely be above LTA by January. The expected deterioration in body condition will cause a decline in livestock prices by January mostly in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, leading to a reduction of purchasing power for their respective households. Household cereal stocks are expected to be below LTA and will be on a declining trend, triggering cereal price increase, a factor that will lead to worsening of terms of trade more so for the pastoral households. By November, food consumption in the Pastoral livelihood zone is likely to start worsening due to the expected reduction in milk consumption. In the Mixed farming and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones, food consumption is expected to deteriorate from November following the depletion of carry over maize stocks from the previous long rains season as the current season is not expected to replenish the stocks due to poor rainfall performance. High cereal prices will be a limiting factor on food access thus affecting food consumption adversely across the county. Households in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones are expected to employ same coping strategies in accessing food but those in Mixed farming livelihood zone are likely to apply slightly more coping strategies as a result of dwindling cereal stocks. Nutrition status will be stable but will start to deteriorate by January due to reduced food quantities and quality. The county will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The Pastoral livelihood zone is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed Livelihood Zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The Mixed Farming and the Irrigated Livelihood Zones are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The performance of the long rains season was poor and was characterized by late onset and poor temporal and spatial distribution of the rains while cessation was normal. Off season rains were experienced across the county. Significant crop failure was observed in the mixed farming and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones while cases of crop pests involving fall army worms were reported. COVID -19 pandemic is still affecting food security by affecting movements of food commodities due to restrictions that have been put in place by the Government. Cases of insecurity were experienced in the pastoral livelihood zone. The acreage put under rain fed agriculture and the projected yield is below the LTA while household maize stocks are slightly above the LTA. For the irrigated agriculture, both acreage and the projected yield is above the LTA. Forage conditions are fair to good while water sources for livestock are normal and livestock body condition is fair to good. Return water distances were above normal and water consumption per household per day was below normal though this is expected to change due to the impact of the off-season rains. Markets were operating normally except in the Pastoral areas whereby they were affected by insecurity. The most common diseases in both the under five children and the general population are URTI, diarrhea and malaria while Vitamin A coverage has increased compared to last year, a factor that was contributed by measles campaign. Immunization coverage was over 100 percent as a result of the measles campaign while nutrition status in children of under five years of age was stable. The county had acceptable food consumption score although in the Pastoral livelihood zone, there was a significant proportion of households that did not have acceptable food consumption. The pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones were applying more coping strategies compared to the other livelihoods in accessing food. 5.1.3 Sub county ranking Sub County Rank (Worst Main food security threatContributing factors to best) Tiaty (East and West) 1 Poor rainfall Insecurity Poor pastures Market Poor pastures disruptions Locust Livestock Malnutrition diseases Mogotio 2 Poor rainfall Crop pests Poor pastures Livestock Crop failure diseases Baringo North 3 Poor rainfall Crop failure Insecurity Livestock Locust diseases Baringo South 4 Poor rainfall Poor recharge of rivers Baringo Central 5 Poor rainfall Eldama Ravine 6 Poor rainfall Crop paste 5.2 Ongoing interventions Intervention Specific Cost Number of Implementatio Implementatio location beneficiaries n timeframe n stakeholders Male Femal Vitamin A All health 2.2 M 4110 41168 Routine MOH supported supplementatio facilities by UNICEF n and selected Zinc All health 867,00 37,00 38,000 Routine County supplementatio facilities 0 0 department of n health Management of Selected 231 M 52,60 54,892 Routine County acute health 0 department of malnutrition facilities health (IMAM) across the supported by county National Government, IYCN All health 52,60 54,892 County intervention facilities 0 department of (EBF and and health timely intro of communit supported by complementary y units Afya uzazi foods) Iron folate All health Routine County supplementatio facilities department of n among ANC health pregnant supported by women WVK and Deworming All health 33,683 Routine County facilities department of health supported by WVK and Cash transfer County KRCSWFP Mass screening County MOH, KRCS AGRICULTURE Construction of Bartolimo 5 M 1000 HH 2018-2020 BCG grain store Department of agriculture Provision of Baringo 3 M 5000 HH 2020-2021 BCG certified north, Department of affruitation south and agriculture seedlings central Purchase by Baringo 1 M 2500 HH 2021-2022 WFP household north, orange sweet south and potato vines central Soil and water Barwesa 50 M 3000 HH 2 years MOALF management bartabwa MOE wards Farm ponds County- 500 M 10000 HH Continuous Department of development wise irrigation Provision of County- 30 M 800 HH May- June 2021 BCG Galla bucks wise KCSAP and Sahiwal bulls to groups Capacity County- 0.2 M 1200 May- June 2021 BCG strengthening wise WFP to youth groups KCSAP communities on poultry training Provision of Baringo 2 M 200 HH July 2020- BCG pasture seeds south, presently RPLRP 2,500 kgs central, WFP north, Tiaty and Vaccination Baringo 2 M 2000 HH On going BCG against CCPP, north, RPLRP PPR and Partners diseases central surveillance and south Provision of Eravine 500 HH On going BCG pasture Baringo KRCS harvesting central KSCAP tools e.g. Mogotio pasture cutters Baringo and bailing south boxes MEDIUM AND LONG TERM Capacity All sub- 1 M 1000 HH Throughout BCG building of counties MOALF farmers and Partners staff Construction County- 13 M 4,000 HH May 2021 BCG renovation of wise LLACC auction yard Rehabilitation Tiaty 2 M 150 HH Sept 2021 BCG of broken- Partners Rehabilitation Saimo Soi 2 M 280 HH Aug 2021 BCG of boreholes Partners Rehabilitation Baringo 1 M 200 HH May 2021 BCG of Barkibi BH south Partners Supply of Baringo 9114 MOE sanitary kits, central BCG tanks and school meals Supply of Marigat 24877 MOE hand washing BOM tanks and NGOs school meals Parents Improve access Baringo 6821 MOE to schools, north BCG handwashing NGOs tanks and water NG supply Improve access Tiaty East 6021 MOE to schools, BCG tanks, supply NG of water and planting of crops in school farms Supply of Mogotio 24877 MOE Supply of Koibatek 24877 MOE 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Sub County Food security Main food security Proportion in need rank (Worst to threatContributing of immediate food best) factors assistance () Tiaty 1 Poor rainfall 15-20 Malnutrition Market disruptions Livestock diseases Mogotio 2 Poor rainfall 10-15 Crop pests Baringo North 3 Poor rainfall 10-15 Baringo South 4 Poor rainfall 5-10 Poor recharge of rivers 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Sub Interventio Number of Proposed Require Availabl Time countyWar n beneficiari implementers d e frame d es resource resource County Rapid assessment 150 facilities Intensify KRCS in the county mass screening and referrals KEMSA and county commissioner and KEMSA 45 hot spots Integrated KRCS 1,873,25 Ongoing and hard to outreach 0 reach sites in services 6 sub counties County Smart 1.5 M January- survey July KEMSA support East pokot Smart MOH 1.5 M survey UNICEF Baringo Kibonjos 180 HH BCG 1 M 2 months south BH Partners Mochongoi Rehabilitatio 430 HH BCG 2 M 3 months n of Partners Manwari Mochongoi Chepkoimet 260 HH BCG 2.5 M 4 months BH Partners Marigat Kamonge 450 HH BCG 0.5 M 2 months ward BH Partners Kalabata Spring 500 HH BCG 3 M 3 months protection Partners and pipeline County wide Roof water 5000 HH BCG 5 M 2 harvesting Partners Months structure for institutions County wide equipping of 650 HH BCG 8 M 6 months four Partners Baringo Vaccination 100,000 BCG 2.3 M - August north against LSD, cattle, NG Decembe Mogotio CCPP and 270,000 Development r 2021 Tiaty PPR goats and partners 50,000 sheep Baringo Provision of Tiaty BCG 20 M 0.5 M August pasture Baringo RPLRP Decembe seeds north, south SHAFSKSA r 2021 and central II Mogotio ACTED MEDIUM TERM Baringo Establishme 4 in Tiaty MOALF 90 M - August north and nt of 2 in BCG Decembe south strategic Baringo NDMA r 2021 Tiaty livestock north Partners Mogotio feed 2 in reserves Baringo south Baringo (all Hay 41,500 HH BCG 60 M - August- sub- harvesting RPLRP Decembe counties) and bailing KCSAP r 2021 machinery SHA one per sub WV county FSK Loruk, Renovation 12,000 HH BCG 60 M - August- Amaya, construction Partners Decembe Barwesa and of livestock r 2021 Nginyang auction yard Baringo Provision of 12,242 MOE 6.7 M 2M 3 years central school meals BCG to learners in BOM primary NGOs schools Marigat Avail water 12,041 MOE 10M 1M 5 years water NGOs Baringo Water 3021 MOE 3M 9M Long north harvesting BCG term and supply BOM of water NGOs tanks Tiaty Water 320 MOE 0.6M 0.1M Long harvesting BCG term and water BOM piping to NGOs Nginyang girls Mogotio provision of 12041 MOE 10M 1M 5 years water and BCG water BOM reservoirs NGOs Koibatek Avail water 12041 MOE 10M 1M 5 years water and NGOs water AGRICULTURE SECTOR County wide Increase in 800 MOALF 50 M Technica 1 year provision of l farm inputs personne to farmers l (drought Trained tolerant farmers seeds, planting and top-dressing fertilizers) County wide Post-harvest 20,000 MOALF 10 M Technica 1 year technologies BCG l stuff and Partners promotion"
        }
    },
    "Baringo Short Rains": {
        "Baringo Short Rains": {
            "Baringo_County_SRA_2016.pdf": "1.0 Introduction - Page 4\n1.1 County Background - Page 4\n1.2 Objectives And Approach - Page 4\n2.0 Drivers Of Food And Nutrition Security In The County - Page 5\n2.1 Rainfall Performance - Page 5\n2.2 Insecurity/Conflict - Page 5\n2.3 Other Shocks And Hazards - Page 5\n3.0 Impacts Of Drivers On Food And Nutrition Security - Page 5\n3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crops Production: .................................................................................................................. 6 3.1.2 Maize Stocks .......................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.3 Livestock Production ............................................................................................................. 7 - Page 5\n3.2 Access 3.2.1 Markets operations ............................................................................................................... 10 3.2.2 Maize prices ......................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.3Livestock prices .................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.4 Terms of trade (ToT) ........................................................................................................... 11 3.2.5 Income sources..................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.6 Water availability and access ............................................................................................... 12 3.2.5 Food Consumption ............................................................................................................... 12 3.2.6 Coping Strategy ................................................................................................................... 12 3.2.7 Morbidity Patterns ............................................................................................................... 13 3.2.8 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation ................................................................... 13 - Page 10\n3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Nutritional status .................................................................................................................. 13 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene ........................................................................................................ 14 - Page 13\n3.4 Access To Basic Education 3.5 Trends of key food security indicators........................................................................................ 15 - Page 14\n4.0 Food Security Prognosis - Page 15\n4.1 Prognosis Assumptions 4.2 Food security Outlook................................................................................................................. 16 - Page 15\n5.0 Conclusion And Recommendations - Page 16\n5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase classification .............................................................................................................. 16 5.1.2 Summary of the findings ...................................................................................................... 16 5.1.3 Sub County Food Security Ranking .................................................................................... 17 5.1.4 Factors to monitor ................................................................................................................ 17 - Page 16\n5.2 Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food Interventions 5.2.2. On-going Non-food interventions ....................................................................................... 18 - Page 18\n5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions ............................................................................................................... 22 5.3.2 Non-food recommended interventions ................................................................................ 23 2 Executive Summary Baringo County is classified in the Stressed phase (Phase 2) of the Integrated Food Security Phase (IPC). The mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal Phase (Phase 2), while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone has remained in the Stressed phase. Pastoral livelihood zone has deteriorated from Stressed to Crisis Phase. This situation is attributed to the poor performance of the short rains season which had a late onset and low amounts. The commodity prices have increased, where a kilogram of maize was trading at Ksh. 55 compared to long term average (LTA) of Ksh.40 while goat prices reduced from a long term average of average of Ksh 2,636 to Ksh. 2,226. This has affected Access to food by households due to increase in maize prices and declining livestock prices, making the current terms of trade (ToT) unfavourable. Households are currently purchasing 40 Kg of maize flour from the sale of a goat compared to 66Kg during same period in the long term average. Low livestock prices have resulted to low purchasing power especially in pastoral livelihood zone since food commodities prices are high. The food security situation in the pastoral and agro-pastoral zones is expected to deteriorate further as these areas are currently facing drought and resource based conflict in competition for pasture and water as a result of poor performance of the short rains, which had negative impact on household food security. The pasture and browse condition were fair in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones but poor and depleted in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Return trekking distances between the water sources and grazing areas increased to 16 Km compared to 5 Km normally while households were currently walking a distance of about 10 Km compared to 5 Km normally thereby limiting access to water. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has been increasing from October and currently 17 percent of children are at risk. The worsening trend can be attributed to low milk availability at the household level as a result of poor pasture and browse. The trend is expected to deteriorate further if no rains are experienced in the next two months or if there is no mitigation measures in place. Food and nutrition security of the county is largely determined by rainfall performance, as well as conflicts and insecurity situation. Crop failure in the irrigated and mixed farming zones have attributed to less food available hence reduced food intakes. Food stocks held have significantly decreased. There were market disruptions due to conflicts which lead to closure of markets and displacement of population in Tiaty and Baringo South Sub County. Outbreaks of foot and mouth disease have resulted to quarantine in Koibatek sub-county. Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP) are pronounced in pastoral zones of Tiaty Sub-county. 3 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County is located in the North Western part of Kenya. It borders Turkana and Samburu counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West and Elgeyo-Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. It has an area of 11,015.3 square kilometres with a population of 703,697 (KNBS, projected, 2016). The county has Lakes Baringo, Bogoria, Kamnarok, and 94 which occupy an area of 165 square kilometres. The County has six (6) sub counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo north, Baringo central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Baringo south. The county is divided into four livelihood zones namely, mixed farming, pastoral, agro pastoral and irrigated cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and four percent respectively (Figure 1). 1.2 Objectives and Approach The main objective of short rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the short rains season of 2016, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide immediate and medium term recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The food security assessment for the County was conducted from 16th to 27th January, 2017 using multi- sectoral approach; the team used all available and relevant data in food insecurity based on the integrated food security phase classification (IPC) methodology. The process started by gathering data using sectoral checklists coupled with conducting a minimum of two market interviews, two focused group community interviews and two key informant interviews in each livelihood zone. Triangulation of data was enhanced by visiting health and education institutions to gather applicable data. Observation technique were also used during transects drives to obtain qualitative data. The field data was collated, reviewed, analyzed and triangulated which resulted to the county food security assessment report whose preliminary findings were disseminated to CSG during debriefing meeting. 4 2 2 % 3 1 % 4 % 4 3 % M ix e d F a r m in P a s t o r a l A g r o P a s t o ra l Ir r ig a t e d C ro p g p in g Figure 1: Proportion of population by livelihood 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The short rains onset was realized in the third dekad (10 days period) of October 2016 which was late, compared to normal second dekad of October. Spatial distribution was even with most areas across the county receiving between 50-75 percent of normal rainfall amounts. Temporal distribution was however poor where the significant rainfall amounts were received only in the second dekad of November. Cessation of the rains was early at the end of November, 2016. Normally rains end in the 3rd dekad of December with off season rains in January across all livelihood zones. 2.2 Insecurity/Conflict Figure 2: Rainfall performance as a percent of normal Conflicts especially in pastoral livelihood zones of Tiaty and Baringo South sub Counties have destabilized markets and displacement of population. Over 1,000 residents have moved from Nasoguro, Mukutani and Kiserian to Mochongoi and Marigat due to conflicts over pastoral resources and cattle rustling. Currently there is resource based conflict between the Pokot and the Marakwet where a police officer was killed. In addition there is resource based conflict between the Pokot and the Tugen in the border areas of Baringo and West pokot. Peace initiatives are currently being undertaken by different stakeholders to reduce the current tension. 2.3 Other Shocks and Hazards The county is experiencing both in-migrations from Nakuru and out-migration of cattle to Laikipia, Nakuru and Samburu counties. Livestock movements from different parts of the county are prevalent in search of pasture. Food prices have increased and they are expected to increase further until the next harvest in July/August. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak was reported in Ilchamus, Tirioko, Ribkwo, Kerio Valley, Chemogoch and Kipsogon. Incidents of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) for goats and Pest des petit ruminants (PPR) have been reported. Widespread livestock mortalities are being reported. A total of 932 cattle have died in Barwesa, Saimo Soi and Bartabwa in Baringo north, 587 in Tiaty and 10 cattle in Barsemoi, Salabani, Arabal in Baringo South. Poor infrastructure is hindering access to the markets in remote areas. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Food available in the county is from own agricultural production, markets which rely on local production and imports outside the county and livestock production. The 2016 short rains harvest were affected by below normal rainfall performance and higher than normal temperature impacting negatively on crop and livestock production exposing households to market dependency. Limited rangeland regeneration led to minimal milk production at household level. The available food is insufficient to 5 sustain the households for the three months and therefore most of the household will largely depend on markets 3.1.1 Crops Production: The county mostly depends on the long rains for crop production. The main food crops grown are maize, beans and Irish potatoes in the mixed farming zone. There was marked reduction on area under cultivation for maize and beans at 93 percent and 85 percent below LTA respectively. Consequently, the expected production for maize and beans is projected to be 99 percent and 97 percent below normal respectively (Table 1). This is attributed to poor performance of short rains which affected crop establishment and poor choice of seeds. The area planted for Irish potatoes was relatively normal, since Eldama Ravine sub county where Irish potatoes are mostly planted received good amounts of rainfall at the begin of the season. However, the expected yields will be 24 percent below LTA which is attributed to poor temporal distribution of rains. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2016 Short rains Long Term Average during 2016 Average season production production during the Short rains area planted (90 kg bags) Short rains season season during the Projected/Actual (90 kg bags) (Ha) Short rains season (Ha) Maize 80 1,205 70 15,400 Beans 183 1,276 247 10,773 Finger millet 25 58 80 330 Irish Potatoes 1,602 1,684 12,852 16,944 Irrigated crop production: The area planted was 97 below the LTA for both maize and beans with the expected yields below LTA with 73 percent for maize and 91 per cent for beans. This is attributed to reduced water levels in the rivers in Baringo South, where most of the irrigation schemes are found, which affected their capacity to provide water for irrigation schemes. Crop loss was experienced especially along river Waseges which is used in Sandai irrigation scheme. Irrigation that depend on water harvesting structures like water pans in areas around Marigat has also been affected since most water pans have dried up due to low recharge levels experienced during short rains this and other uses. However, the areas area under tomatoes tripled since farmers preferred to plant short growing, high income horticultural crops. This resulted to over production which led to market glut and low prices of the crop 6 Table 2: Irrigated Crops Crop Area planted during Long Term 2016 Short rains Long Term Average the 2016 Short rains Average (3 season production (3 years) production season years) (90 kg bags) during 2016 Short (ha) area planted Projected/actual rains season during Short (90 kg bags) rains season (ha) Maize 30 1250 1375 5064 Beans 7 291 73 895 Tomatoes 172 58 1682 562 Water melons 81 92 1540 1724 3.1.2 Maize Stocks Stocks held at house-holds level were 66 percent of the LTA mainly because of exhaustion of the previous season reserves (Table 3). Household food stocks in the mixed and agro pastoral zones are dwindling while in the pastoral zones households did not have any stocks and households are depending on market purchases. Diminishing stocks at household level is as a result of in order to obtain school fees for their children. The stocks held by traders are 14 percent higher in comparison to LTA. However traders are now disposing their stocks to millers due to high market prices offered by millers. NCPB is currently holding 87 percent of the LTA which is attributed to high demand of maize. Table 3: Food Stocks held in the County Maize stocks held by Quantities held Long Term Average quantities held (90-kg currently (90-kg bags) bags) House Holds 437,540 654,122 Traders 63,658 55,889 Millers 19,041 20,122 NCPB 4,799 39,461 Total 525,038 769,594 3.1.3 Livestock Production Introduction The major livestock species in the county include cattle, sheep, goats, camel, donkey, poultry and bees. Poultry is gaining prominence across the livelihoods while camels are also reared in the pastoral livelihood zones majorly for milk. Livestock contribute 88 percent to income and 21 percent to food in pastoral zone (Table 4). Table 4: Contribution for cash and food from livestock production in Baringo County:- Livelihood zone Cash (%) Food (%) Mixed farming 23 25 Irrigated cropping 8 25 Agro-pastoral 50 20 Pastoral 88 21 7 3.1.3.1 Pasture and browse Condition The pasture and browse condition were fair in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones but poor and depleted in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The situation is attributed to poor performance of the short rains which resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. This has led to deterioration of livestock body condition. Pasture is expected to last for one month and three month in mixed farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zone but completely depleted in livelihood zone as shown in table 5. Table 5: Pasture and Browse Condition Livelihood Zone Pasture condition Browse condition Current Situation at Projected Curre Situation at Projected this time of Duration to last nt this time of Duration to year (Months) year last(months) Mixed farming Fair Good 1 month Fair Good 2.5 months Irrigated cropping Fair Good 1.5 months Fair Good 2.5 months Agro-pastoral Poor Good to Fair 3 weeks Poor Good 1.5 months Pastoral Depleted Good to Fair N/A Poor Good 1 month 3.1.3.2 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is deteriorating as pastures and browse are further depleted. The most vulnerable are the lactating cows which farmers are likely to lose together with the calves as the situation worsens. The current body condition translates to low livestock prices which downplay the farmers\u2019 purchasing power. Table 6: Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Zone Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Mixed Good to Good Good to Good Good to Good N/A N/A farming fair fair fair Irrigated Good to Good Good to Good Good to Good cropping fair fair fair Agro- Fair to Fair Fair to Fair Fair Good to Good Good pastoral poor poor fair Pastoral Poor Fair Poor Fair Fair Good to Good Good fair 3.1.3.3 Livestock Tropical Units The tropical livestock units in low income households indicated a slight increase as compared to June 2016. However the TLUs were lower as compared to normal attributed to distress sales and mortality. The averages translated to 2.3 in poor HH as compared to 4.2 in medium HH. Table 7: Livestock Tropical Units Low Income Households Medium Income Households Current TLU Normal TLU Current TLU Normal TLU Mixed farming 2.4 3.2 4.2 4.5 Irrigated cropping 2.1 3.1 3.4 3.5 Agro-pastoral 2.1 2.6 3.2 3.2 Pastoral 2.5 2.6 4.5 4.6 8 3.1.3.4 Milk Availability Milk production and consumption decreased as compared to normal in both agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones attributed poor livestock body condition as a result of poor pasture. The prices across all livelihood zones were above normal. Consumption stabilized in both mixed farming and irrigated cropping, but declined in both pastoral and agro-pastoral zones indicating malnutrition for children under 5 years in both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones (Table 8) Table 8: Milk Availability Livelihood zone Production per HH(Lts) Consumption per HH(Lts) Prices(KES) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 3-5 6 2 2 60 50 Irrigated cropping 3-5 6 2 2 60 50 Agro-pastoral 1-1.5 2.5 1 1.5 75 60 Pastoral 0.5-1 1.5 0.7 1.5 90 60 3.1.4 Water for Livestock The main permanent water sources are boreholes and Lakes; Lake Baringo, Bogoria, Kamnarok, and 94. The rivers are Amaya, Kerio, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Waseges and Mukutani. However, Kerio River has dried from Kapluk downwards. The return trekking distance for livestock has more than doubled compared to normal in agro-pastoral and pastoral zone (Table 9). This resulted to deteriorating livestock body condition and hence low livestock prices further downplaying purchasing power to households. Table 9: Livestock Water Variables Liveli Sources Return trekking Expected duration Watering hood distance(Km) frequency zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Streams, Rivers, Streams, 1-3 1- 3 months Through Twice Twice farming springs, piped Rivers, springs, 1.5Km out Daily Daily water, boreholes, piped water, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, shallow Rivers, shallow 1-3 1-1.5 1-2 months Through Twice Twice croppin wells and springs. wells and out Daily Daily g springs. Agro- water pans, Streams, water 4-10 4-6 3-4 weeks 3 2 Days 2 Days pastoral Boreholes pans, Boreholes months Pastoral Water-pans, Water-pans, 6-15 2-7 2 weeks 2 2 Days 2 Days Bore-holes Bore-holes except in months Boreholes 3.1.5 Livestock Movement and Migration The county experienced intra migration, outward migration and also inward migration during the season which were are not normal as they have occurred earlier than expected. The main reason for the migration was to search for pasture and water. The migrations have caused resource based conflict, as well as introduced Foot and Mouth Disease in Koibatek Sub-county, hence imposition of quarantine in the sub-county. The main migration routes recorded were as shown in table 10 below. 9 Table 10: Livestock migration routes Intra migration Outward migration In ward migration -Kamar, Kamar, Molos and Majimoto to -Sinende, Kabuswo and Kapnosgei -Nakuru towards Maji L.Bogoria and Loboi areas towards Laikipia and Menengai in Mazuri forests in Koibatek -Sagasagik, Cheberen and Kimngorom to Nakuru County sub-county Kiplombe and Maji mazuri forests in E/Ravine - Churo-Laikipia and Samburu Subcounty forests. -Tiaty-Rugus/Komolion-Kiserian-Mukutani -Kolloa-Silale-Nadome -Sibilo-Arabal -Saimo soi, Bartabwa, Chemoe, Yatya, Ng\u2019orora \u2013 Kerio Valley(Barwessa) Marigat \u2013Mukutani and along the shores of L. Baringo and lake Bogoria 3.1.6 Livestock Diseases and Mortalities Livestock diseases were reported during the short rains season which affected livestock production and caused mortality (Table 11). Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Contagious Caprine Mukutani, Saimo soi, Loiwat, Kaptuya, Kolloa, Goats and 74 sheep and Pleuropneumonia(CCPP) Akoret, Tirioko, Sheep. goats Foot and Mouth Disease(FMD) Ilchamus, Tirioko, Ribkwo, Kerio Valley, Cattle Chemogoch, Kipsogon, Koibatek Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Ribko, Tirioko, Ilchamus, Saimo soi, Katuwit, Shoats 50 shoats Koloa, Kositei,Kamar, majimoto,Emining East Coast Fever(ECF) Ribko, Kolloa, Saimo soi, Mukutani, Sinende, Cattle 9cows Kabuswo Heart water Saimo soi ,Kolloa Shoats 119 shoats Mange Saimo soi Shoats 24 shoats Worms County wise All livestock Red water Tirioko, Akoret cattle New Castle Disease Mukutani Chicken 3.1 7. Livestock mortalities Mortality rates for sheep and goats are normal at three percent. Cattle mortality rates have increased to four percent due to drought. A total of 932 cattle have died in Barwessa, Saimo Soi and Bartabwa in Baringo North, 587 in Tiaty and 10 cattle in Barsemoi, Salabani, Arabal in Baringo South. 35 goats have died in Saimo Soi. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Markets operations The main markets in the county include Barwessa, Kolloa,Marigat, Nginyang, Kipsaraman, Kinyach, among others. Mixed farming Livelihood zones, have markets in Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi which are currently under quarantine due to outbreak of foot and mouth disease and plans are underway to to carry out ring vaccination. There were also market disruptions due to conflicts which lead to closure of markets in Arabal and Kolloa and displacement of population especially in pastoral livelihood zones. 10 3.2.2 Maize prices Average maize price in the county stood at Ksh. 55 in Average (2011-2015) 2016 2017 January 2017 compared to the LTA of Ksh. 40(Figure 3). ) g60 In pastoral livelihood zone, maize prices was at ksh.60 per k kg while in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood / .h s50 K40 zones the price was at ksh. 30 and 35 respectively. The e( z30 increased prices are attributed to diminishing supply of ia m20 maize in the market coupled with increased demand of fo e10 maize in the market since most households are relying on c ir 0 the market. P n a J b e F r a M r p A y a M n u J lu J g u A p e S t c O v o N c e D Figure 3: Maize prices 3.2.3Livestock prices Livestock prices are low occasioned by oversupply of Average (2011-2015) 2016 2017 livestock in the market due to distress sales; for school ) .h3000 fees and fear of losses to drought. The market prices are s K likely to continue dropping due to decline in body t( 2500 a2000 condition.The average goat prices in the ccounty is Ksh. o g 2,226 compared to the LTA of Ksh. 2,636 which is16 a fo1 15 00 00 0 percent below LTA(Figure 4). e c ir P 500 0 \u2026 n a J b e F r a M r p A y a M n u J lu J g u A p e S t c O N c e D Figure 4: Goat prices 3.2.4 Terms of trade (ToT) In January 2017, a household was able to purchase 40 Average (2011-2015) 2016 2017 kilograms of maize from the sale of one goat compared 80 with the LTA of 66 Kgs, which is 39 percent below the e z t a o LTA(Figure 5). This is attributed to drop in goat prices and iag60 m a increase in maize prices. ToT are projected to deteriorate for o40 further until March as goat price further drops with the s mf d maize price increasing precipitated by the current drought. e ag20 rn ga o liKh c x 0 e n a J b e F r a M r p A y a M n u J lu J g u A p e S t c O v o N c e D Figure 5: Terms of trade 3.2.5 Income sources The main income sources in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones are sale of livestock, petty trade, fishing, casual labor, sale of charcoal and firewood. Currently some of these income sources especially related to livestock production have been affected by the current drought and conflict situations, hence households engaging in coping mechanisms to access food. 11 3.2.6 Water availability and access The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; dams, lakes, water pans, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Most of the commonly used water facilities in mixed farming, agro-pastoral and pastoral zones are currently overstretched as compared to the normal. About 60-90 percent of waterpans are dry due to poor recharge & Siltation. Remaining water in pans have about 30-40 percent of water available; likely to last for 1-2 month in pastoral and agro-pastoral zones and between 2-3 months in the mixed and irrigated zones. Normally, water pans in pastoral and agro-pastoral zones last until April. The main rivers in the county which are mostly in mixed farming and agro-pastoral livelihood zone include River Perkera, Molo, Ol Arabal, Kerio, Barwessa, River Kinyo, Amaya which have about 30 percent of their normal flows mainly due to poor recharge, over abstraction in the upstream. Normally, at this time of the year, rivers are among the main sources. Return distances to domestic water sources have increased to 6-10 Km in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. The normal return distances in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are usually 2-3 km and 3-5 km respectively. Return distances in the mixed farming and irrigated Farming zones is stable at 1-2km. In the mixed farming and irrigated zone, waiting time is normal within 15 minutes. Waiting time at the source range from 30 to 40 minutes in the pastoral and agro pastoral zones. However, some isolated areas like Kamnoskei are waiting up to up to one hour and two hours in Kirim. Normally, households are able to fetch water within 30 minutes. The duration of time spent queuing for water is projected to increase in pastoral livelihood zone. Water consumption per person per day average 20-25 litres in the irrigated zone, 15-20 litres in the mixed farming and 10-15 litres in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones respectively. Most households in the pastoral, agro-pastoral zones don\u2019t buy water at source and depend on pans, springs and rivers. Irrigated zone depend on water from canal. Households purchasing water from a borehole pay between Ksh. 3-5 per 20 litres jerrycan. 3.2.5 Food Consumption The proportion for the households which had acceptable food consumption score was 83 and 49 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively (Figure 6). This is in comparison to those who had poor food consumption score at 17 and 52 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively in the month of January 2017. Figure 6: food consumption score 3.2.6 Coping Strategy The mean coping strategy index for the month of January 2017 is 20, which represents an increase when compared to the coping strategy index of the previous month that was 15. Thus, households employed more severe coping mechanisms in January unlike in the previous month. The CSI for pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in the month of January 2017 is 23.8 and 15.6 respectively. CSI for irrigated livelihood zone average 4.2. Most households are taking few numbers of meals eaten per day and reduced portion size of meals. 12 13 detropeR sesaC 1111 64208642 00000000 00000000 000000000 M o n t h U U M M D D R R a a IA IA T I 2 0 T I 2 0 la ria la ria R R H R R H 1 1 2 2 O O 6 5 0 0 E E 1 1 A A 6 5 2 2 0 0 1 1 6 5 3.2.7 Morbidity Patterns The five most prevalent diseases between August and December 2016 among under-fives and the general population are Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), Malaria, diarrhoea, diseases of the skin, and pneumonia. All diseases showed a declining trend from August to December 2016. Distance to nearest health facilities is high with the average distance being 35Km in East Pokot and 6 Km in Baringo North. Under five mortality rates and Crude mortality rate (CMR) is stable are also below the emergency threshold. Figure 7: Morbidity cases 3.2.8 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation The average county immunization coverage between July and December 2016 increased to 67 from 58 percent recorded in the same period of 2015; however the coverage remained below the national target of 80 percent. Increase in coverage for fully immunized children can be attributed to opening of the immunization sites, implementation of outreaches and result based financing program. Though the data indicate a declining trend, most patients did not see the need to visit hospitals due to health workers strike. Vitamin A coverage between July and December 2016 average 36 percent but remains far below the national target of 80 percent. However, there was an increase of 8.5 percent compared to the same period of 2015. The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 12-59 months can be attributed to Malezi Bora activities which made use of ECD and Community Health Units in Baringo Central, East Pokot and Koibatek Sub-Counties. 3.3 Utilization Most households are consuming an average of one to two meals in a day comprising of mainly tea, ugali, wild vegetables and porridge in the pastoral livelihood zones. Households in the Mixed, irrigated zone and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are accessing 2-3 meals in a day with advantage of vegetables. Current water consumption in pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated zones are 10-12 litres and 12-15litres in mixed farming zones. Minimal water treatment was practiced among households in East Pokot sub- county where the main water source though depleted serve both livestock and households. 3.3.1 Nutritional status The proportion of children (6-59 months) at risk of malnutrition increased from 15 in December to 18 percent in January 2017 compared to the LTA of 16.6 percent (Figure 8). Most households are consuming an average of one to two meals in a day comprising of mainly tea, ugali, wild vegetables and porridge in the Pastoral. Households in the Mixed, Irrigated zone and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are accessing 2-3 meals in a day with advantage of vegetables. Majority of children are introduced to herbal tea and milk before six months. Nutritional status is expected to deteriorate until April 2017 when the Long rains are expected. In the Pastoral livelihood zone, 90 percent of mothers introduce herbal teas 14 )mm531<CAUM( 'ksir ta' 2 1 1 0 5 0 5 0 A .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 v e r a naJ g e ( beF 2 0 1 raM 1 - 2 rpA 0 1 5 yaM ) nuJ luJ 2 0 1 guA 6 peS tcO 2 0 voN 1 7 ceD with cow's milk as early as two weeks. Data from CHANIS indicate declining trend from August to December 2016. Admission of children with moderate acute malnutrition admitted to supplementary feed program (SFP) between August and October 2016 has also shown a declining trend. 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock shared open water sources with people. Most water sources don\u2019t have a separate water collection point for livestock and human. Cases of typhoid and amoeba have been reported in the pastoral and agro\u2013pastoral zones. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral zone at less than 10 percent and highest in mixed farming at 55 percent. Low latrine coverage is associated with associated with cultural values. Most households practice open defaecation in pastoral livelihood zone, posing a health risk especially during rainy season. Water treatment at household level is very low and drinking of raw water Figure 8: Malnutrition rates directly from the sources was predominant. 3.4 Access to Basic Education Enrolment has declined in East Pokot due to lack of food in schools. Koibatek was the only sub- County that registered steady increase of enrolment for both boys and girls. Early childhood development centres (ECDE) enrolment declined generally in all the sub- counties, except Baringo central where an increased enrolment was noted due to reduced distance of ECDE centres after the county government constructed ECDE centres. The cause of poor enrolment was caused by the discontinuation of school meals program (SMP) by the national government. Baringo County has a total enrolment of 141,288 pupils\u2019 with73,359 boys 67,929 girls. ECDE enrolment stands at 52,111 with 27,160 boys and 25,570 girls in January 2017 compared to February 2016 where there were 74,040 boys and 69,142 girls totalling 143,179 pupils. School attendance for both primary and ECDE has been hindered by withdrawal of SMP. Hotspots in the education sector include the primary schools without school meals programme (SMP) in 6 sub counties of Baringo East, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio and Koibatek. Schools under Home-grown School Meals Programme (HSMP) are 218; those under RSMP are 113 out of 667 Schools in the County. Schools affected by insecurity include Kapedo secondary school, Silale primary School, Lomelo primary School, Kapedo Girls and Kapedo Mixed primary schools in Turkana East. Approximately 40 percent of the schools in the county are facing severe water shortage as result of drying up of water sources and lack of water storage facilities in schools. Schools affected include Tirioko Ward (Chemayes, Kapunyany, Kimian, Kangiruru, Sukut, Krezee Embositit, Ngeleyo, , Kore lach, Ptikii, Napur, Chepkarerat, Chepotindar Primary Schools), Kollowa-Loiwat Ward ( Kerelon, Loiwat, Tilingwa, Lodengo, Pkaghit and Tukomoi Primary Schools, Loiwat Secondary School and Dispensary) and Silale Ward (Natan, Primary, Napeikore School and community, Naudo School and community, Akwichatis Primary and Dispensary, Nalekat, Riongo Primary, Dispensary and community) in East Pokot. 3.5 Trends of key food security indicators Table 11: Trends of key food security indicators INDICATOR LRA 2016 SRA 2017 Average water distance from Average walking distance of 3.5-5 Pastoral: 6-10 km source(km) km. Agro-pastoral: 6-10 km Irrigated agricultural: Mixed Farming: Cost of water at source Ksh. 2-5 Ksh. 3-5 Consumption 15-20 litres in pastoral and agro- 10-12 litres in pastoral, agro- (Litres/person/day) pastoral zones, 20-25 litres in pastoral and irrigated zones and Irrigated zones and mixed farming 12-15litres in mixed farming zone. zones. Goat Prices Average at Ksh 2,585 Average 2,226 Maize prices/Kilogram Average Ksh 40 Average Ksh. 55/kg (Pastoral & Agro-p: 60, Mixed & Irrigated: Ksh 30-35/Kg Terms of Trade 63kilogram/goat 40Kilogram/goat Maize stock held 69 percent of LTA 68 percent of LTA Livestock Body condition Good to fair in pastoral zones for Pastoral: poor large stocks. Agro-pastoral: Fair to poor Good for small stocks across Irrigated agricultural: Good to fair, livelihood zones. Mixed Farming: Good to fair. Coping strategy Index Mean CSI: 15 Mean CSI: 20 (Jan) Pastoral:23.8, Agro-pastoral: 15.6, Irrigated zone:4.2 and Fishing zone: 14.9. Food Consumption Score Poor-1.3percent Poor-19 percent (Jan 2017) Borderline-8 percent Borderline-32.0 percent Acceptable-90.7 percent Acceptable-49 percent Food security phase Stressed in pastoral and Crisis in pastoral & Agro-pastoral agro-pastoral: zones. Minimal in irrigated agricultural Stressed in Mixed and Irrigated and mixed Farming zone: zones Dietary diversity 1-2 meals in pastoral and agro- 1-2 meals across the livelihood pastoral zones. zones. 2-3 meals in mixed and Irrigated agricultural zones. MUAC<135mm 15 percent 18 percent Vitamin A supplementation 40.2 percent 36 percent 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions Baringo County food security prognosis for the next six months is based on the following assumptions: \uf0b7 Given the October - December 2016 short rains crop production was far much below average, the proportion of households relying on market supplies will increase. 15 \uf0b7 The available pasture will last for three months in the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone. Available browse is likely to last 3 months in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones and one month in agro-pastoral and pastoral all species livelihood zone. \uf0b7 Food deficit in the county is likely to be met by imports by traders, and this is likely to push prices of maize and other basic commodities up \uf0b7 Farm inputs including certified seed stock, fertilizers and tractor services are likely to be availed and subsidized by the County Government in a timely manner thus households will increase crop production during the long rains season. \uf0b7 Distances to water sources for domestic and livestock are likely to continue to increasing thereby reducing income activities and negatively affecting livestock body condition. \uf0b7 The onset of the March-June long rains is likely to be timely with good rainfall amounts 4.2 Food security Outlook February to April: The food security situation is expected to worsen in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The mixed farming and irrigated faming livelihood zones may continue in their present phase (Minimal). However, the agro-pastoral and pastoral all species livelihood zones are likely to worsen or expand their scope, meaning more people and livestock affected, and in Stressed and crisis respectively. May to June: Nutrition status is likely to deteriorate with most households consuming less than 3 meals in a day. Crude mortality and under five mortality is expected to increase. Food consumption score is expected to deteriorate with households consuming less food groups until April. Coping strategy Index will increase with households applying more consumption based strategies. 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion The current food security situation is likely to remain stable in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. Food security is expected to deteriorate in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones in the next two months. Malnutrition levels are expected to increase across the county. Most pans have dried up due to siltation and require urgent de-silting before the onset of the long rains so that pans/ dams can harvest sufficient water to be used during dry periods. There is urgent need to provide water and food to schools especially in the pastoral areas to improve retention. Provision of more boarding facilities in the Pastoral zone is crucial as pastoralists continue to migrate with their children in search of pasture. Vulnerable households especially in the pastoral need to be supported for the next six months to enable them meet their basic food requirements. Recommended Non-food interventions need to be implemented with immediate effect to cushion households from extreme effects of drought. Highest food gap is in Tiaty. 5.1.1 Phase classification The county is classified in the Stressed phase (IPC phase 2). Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal Phase, while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone has remained in the Stressed phase. Pastoral livelihood zone has deteriorated from Stressed to Crisis Food Insecurity Phase. 5.1.2 Summary of the findings Nutrition status of children under five years is deteriorating with 18 percent of children at risk of malnutrition in the month of January 2017. There are no food stocks left in pastoral zones and agro- 16 pastoral zones and households are depending on market purchases. Pasture is already depleted in pastoral livelihood zone and poor in the agro-pastoral zone. However, pasture is fair in the mixed and irrigated zones and is expected to last for 2-3 months. Most livestock is grazing within the county but there is a lot of movements towards Mochongoi and Eldama Ravine. Markets are operating normally with the average maize price being Ksh. 55 per kg and goat at Ksh 2,226. A household was able to exchange 40 kilograms with the sale of a goat in Janaury, 2017. Declining livestock prices is due to due to distress sales to pay school fees and fear of losses as a result of drought. About 80 percent of water pans have dried up due to high siltation levels. Water consumption is normal in the Mixed farming and Irrigated zones ranging from 15-25 litres per person per day. Though water consumption has remained more less the same, return distances have increased to 6-10km in the pastoral and the agro pastoral livelihood zones. Some schools have no access to food leading to poor attendance rates. 5.1.3 Sub County Food Security Ranking Table 12: Sub County Food Security Ranking Sub County Rank (1- Main food security threat (if any) 10) Very Good (9-10) Good (7-8) Fair (5-6) Poor (3-4) Very Poor (<2) East Pokot (Tiaty) 3 Depletion of pasture, fair to poor browse condition, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, resource based conflict, High livestock mortalities Baringo North 4 Depletion of pasture, fair to poor browse condition, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, resource based conflict, High livestock mortalities Mogotio 5 Poor pasture condition, resource based conflict, livestock disease. Baringo South 6 Deteriorating pastures, resource based Conflict Baringo Central 6 Depletion of pasture, high food prices in migration Eldama Ravine 7 In-migration of Livestock from Nakuru county and livestock movements from other parts of the County 5.1.4 Factors to monitor \uf0b7 Onset and progress of the coming long rains, which is the most reliable for agriculture \uf0b7 Situation of water sources for both domestic and livestock \uf0b7 Livestock movements and in and out migration of livestock \uf0b7 Conflicts which may arise out of common resource use \uf0b7 Livestock diseases surveillance and vaccinations 17 5.2 Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions Table 13: Food interventions Name of No. of HGSM RSMP ESMP CSMP Other None Total Sub schools Specify counties Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls MOGOTIO 67 6853 6837 - - - - - - - - 3906 3644 10481 21240 BARINGO 31 3020 2789 - - - - - -- - - 5315 4876 14482 13682 C E/POKOT 113 - - 9006 7727 - - - - - - 1292 411 10298 8138 MARIGAT 49 10031 9572 - - - - - - - - 2534 2354 12565 11926 B. NORTH 71 9167 8810 - - - - - - - - 5315 4876 14482 13686 KOIBATEK 90 - - - - - - - - - - - - 13937 13241 Sub Total 38077 35735 9006 7727 22024 20163 74040 69142 Grand total 73812 16733 42187 143179 5.2.2. On-going Non-food interventions On-going interventions: 1. WATER SECTOR Sub Intervention Location/Ward No. of Proposed Required Available Time Frame County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources All Water Trucking All sub-counties 1200HHs County 8M 8M July 2016-June Covernment/ 2017 MWI All Infrastructure All sub-counties 3,170HH County 230M 230M July 2016-June development , WS \u2013 Covernment/ 2017 pipeline extension, MWI Water Pans and General 18 Rehabilitations All WASH activities and All sub-counties 1860HHs GoK, CDF 21M 21M July 2016-June Establishment of County Gov. 2017 water management JICA, WV, Committees and KRDP, NDMA. Capacity Action AID development 2. LIVESTOCK SECTOR Sub Intervention Location/Ward No. of Proposed Required Available Time Frame County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources Baringo Disease All Countywide MOALF, Reduced 15M Nov 2016- control(vaccinations 137,000 BCG incidences of December2016 against FMD and Cattle RPLRP livestock PPR, 192,000 diseases Sheep and leading to goats improved livestock body condition Baringo Feeds distribution All 200 MOALF, Increase in 5M July 2016- households BCG pasture August 2016 RPLRP production for improved livestock productivity Baringo Recruitment of All 2,000 National Ensure HH are 50M Dec 2016-Jan Farmers for households government empowered to 2017 Livestock Insurance access feeds and livestock drugs during drought period 19 3. HEALTH & NUTRITION All Vitamin A County wide 94789 MOH, WVK Improved child 380,000 August 2016- Supplementation immunity December 2016 All Zinc County wide 17264 Health Services Reduce 240,000 December 2016 Supplementation severity of Diarrhoea All Management of County wide 7362 MOH, Safe life 24,000,000 August 2016- Acute Malnutrition WVK/UNICEF And prevent December 2016 (IMAM) and WPP under nutrition All IYCN Interventions County wide 105321 MOH, WVK Promote proper 2,000,000 (EBF and Timely child growth Intro of and complementary development Foods) All Iron Folate County wide 26596 MOH, WVK Reduced child KSH 540,000 August 2016- Supplementation morbidity and December 2016 among Pregnant mortality Women East SMART Survey East Pokot Ksh1,229,550 December 2016- Pokot Jan, 217 Sub County All Deworming County wide 94789 MOH, WVK Increase food KSH 450,000 Sept.2016- intake and December 2016 utilization Total 27,610,000 4. AGRICULTURE All (Baringo South, Soil County wide 400 AL&F Increased food 400,000 July 2016-June Baringo North, sampling production and 2017 Baringo Central, and testing right use of inputs 20 Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine All Fruits trees County Wide 5400 AL&F Environmental 3,000,000 July 2016-June developmen Conservation and 2017 t food security All (Baringo South, Green house County Wide 210 AL&F Increased food 2.5 Million July 2016-June Baringo North, farming production 2017 Baringo Central, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine All Value All wards 60 groups AL& F Improved food 560,000 July 2016-June addition , utilization and 2016 food value addition preservation and nutrition All All wards Normal All wards AL&F Improved food 1,000,000 July 2016- June Extension security 2017 messages Baringo North DLRSP Barwessa 2500 Farmers /MOA Increased 50,000,000 July 2016- June productivity and 2017 resilience to communities Baringo North Gulley Kabartonjo 2500 Farmers Reduced soil 300,000 July 2016-June protection /MOALF erosion and 2017 improved environmental conservation Tiaty Protection Kolloa 150 Farmers , AL& Enhanced - 1 year of Lomet F household food agricultural security and peace site 21 EDUCATION SECTOR Sub- Intervention Location (where it is No. of Implementers Impacts in terms of Cost Time Frame county located) beneficiaries food security B. Provision of Kipkata,sibilo 1998 GOK,CG Parents Increase enrolment, 8000000 NORTH food Kelyo,bartum and wvk NGOs high transition rate items(HGSMP, kaboskei and retention CSMP) Mogotio Assistance from Kiptoim, 1500 Gok Pupils retention 40000 SCC cheberen,kapterit, Baringo Planting of Kaptara, salawa, chesongo, 1800 Gok, CG,Partners Food security 1200000 2014-2018 central mangoes in kapyemit primary schools Marigat HGSMP,relief Marigat,kimalel,salabani 8000 Gok, Moe, WFP, Increase access to 5m 2016-2018 food from CG, Mugutani, arabal,ewalel CG education,improve planting of Ngambo Trs/pupils,WVK Heald pawpaw,peace Noosuguro,kiserian Religious status,improve building Barsemoi group,SCC income generation activities 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Table 15: Proposed population in need of food assistance Sub-County 2009 Projected Pop in need Proposed Remarks (Hotspots) Population 2016 ( % range min mode of Population \u2013 max intervention East Pokot 133,189 168709 20-25% Churo,Amaya, Putoro, Tebelekwo, Kaptuya, all locations in CFA Tirioko, Kolloa, Ribkwo, Silale, Loiyamorok, 22 (Tiaty) Tangulbei/Korosi Baringo 93,789 118797 15-20% CFA Kapkata(, Saimo, Kapkoiwa, Terik), Kaboskei Kerio (Ayatia, North Kuikui, Maregut), Kabutiei: (Kapluk, Katibel, Muchukwo), Lawan (Kaptilimwo, Keturwo, Konoo), Kinyach, Kaboskei, Ngoroba, Barketiew, Yatya, Loruk, Rondonin, Sibilo, Bartum(Akorian, Kipcherere,Koroto, Taimon Mogotio 48,129 60962 15-20% CFA Kisanana, Ngendal, Olkokwe, Oldebes, Waseges, Mugurin Baringo 84,256 106722 10-15% CFA Bekibon, Kibingor,Kimondis Tuluongoi, Kamungei, South Chemeron, Kiserian, Arabal, Chebinyiny, Kasiela, Sandai, Mbechot Baringo 78,095 98918 1-5% CFA Salawa, Manach, Koitilion, Kabusa, Kapkelelwa, Katunoi, Central Saimet, Koibarak, Ochii, Cheplambus, Eitui, Kisonei, Sorok Koibatek 118,103 149594 1-5% CFA Muserechi, Madina, Esageri , Saos 5.3.2 Non-food recommended interventions 1. WATER Sub County Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Resources Time Frame /Ward beneficiarie Implementer Resources s s All Sub Provision of All 60 County 10.8M Improved roof By June 2017 counties PVC tanks Institutions Government, structures and technical of10,000 lts Ministry of backstopping Capacity to water and learning irrigation, Institutions and NGOs Health Centres All Sub Provide ALL 2300 County 14.5 M Water infrastructural June 2017 Counties fuel/diesel households Government, facilities subsidy to NGOs community W/s 23 All Sub Water trucking ALL Institutions County 35 M Human reso June 2017 Counties and Water Government, treatment NGOs Chemicals All Sub Design and All 55,000 County 1.5B Land/ technical 2015/ 2017 Counties Construction of Government, expertise Multi-purpose NGOs Dams Tiaty, Baringo Mechanized de- Tiaty, 45,000Hous County 72 M Land/ technical Feb 2017- April 2017 North, Baringo silting and Baringo eholds Government, expertise South, Mogotio expansion of North, NGOs 24No. Critical Baringo water pans while South, dry Mogotio 2. LIVESTOCK Baringo Distribution of -Baringo 41,500 HH Department 54.088 M 2.7M Jan 2017-April,2017 hay and food North of supplements to -Tiaty Agriculture the affected -Baringo Livestock livestock -South and Mogotio fisheries- BCG Baringo Water tracking - 41,500 HH MOWI Water Budget Jan 2017-April,2017 to ease conflict BaringoN between orth livestock, -Tiaty domestic and -Baringo schools -South Mogotio Baringo Disease All Countywide BCG, 8,273M 2M Jan 2017-April,2017 control(vaccinati National 24 ons against government FMD,CCPP, and NCD,LSD) Development partners and Baringo Commercial All 2,000 Department 25M - Feb 2017-April,2017 offtake for 2,000 households of cattle Agriculture Livestock and fisheries and stakeholders Baringo Emergency Baringo 2,000HH BCG(MOAL 25M 2.4M Feb 2017-April,2017 Livestock North F),Nat. Govt. offtake -Tiaty -Baringo -South Mogotio 3. HEALTH & NUTRITION All Rapid Baringo 94,000 MOH/NDM 900,000 300,000 Feb 2017 Assessment County A/WVK/KR C All Intensify Mass 150 94,000 MOH/WV 846,000 200,000 February 2017 screening and Health and referrals facilities WFP/KRC in the Count all the 6 sub- counties All Provision of 150 MOH/WVK/ Ksh 100,000 February 2017 food facilities 7,362 KRC/WFP 900,000 supplements in the County 25 Integrated 45 hot 96,850 MOH /WVK KSH 1,873,250 267,600 February outreach spots and KRC 2017 services hard to all reach sites in 6 sub counties All SMART Survey County 654,000 MOH /WVK 3,000,000,000 340,000 June 2017 wide KRC Total 5,833,250 4. AGRICULTURE ALL Provision of 18 Wards 15,200 AL&F, Seeds (Maize, Farms Feb 2017-March 2017 Relief Inputs Households NDMA, and Beans, Cowpeas (seeds and (15,200 other and Finger Millet. Fertilizers) to acres Stakeholders Fertilizers (Basal Farmers (Maize, and Top dressing) Beans, Cowpeas Fuel, Subsistence and Finger allowance for Millet) officers Total Kshs 167,580,000 All Subsidized Land 18 Wards 15, 200 AL&F Tractors, Fuel, County Tractors, AMS Feb,2017-March, 2017 preparation for Households Subsistence station affected allowance. households Total Kshs:10,000,000 ALL Asset creation 25 Wards 1,000 HH MoALF, Cash, Subsistence Vehicles, fuel 2017-2022 programme NDMA, personnel, motor WFP and vehicles other Stakeholders 26 Tiaty Expansion of Kolowa 1000 County Govt, 200M land 2years irrigation NIB, KVDA Fencing of Kolowa 1000 County Govt, 7m Poles 1 year irrigation NIB, KVDA scheme County wide Mapping out of Tirioko, 10,000 County , and 10 Billion -Seasonal rivers 5 years areas for Ribkwo, National -Fertile land construction of Silale governments -Labour water dams for and irrigation Kollowa wards Mogotio Fruit Trees ALL 4000 MOALF, Seedlings Skilled Personnel March 2017 to June Establishment KVDA, Fuel Land 2017 KARI, Funds Unskilled Labour HCDA, Mogotio Soil Kipngoro MOAL&F Funds Springs March 2017- conservation m 3000 MOW&I, fuel Land labour June 2017 and water Cheberen KVDA harvesting KFS World vision Mogotio Green Houses All 6 -County Green Houses Technical staff One year department of Vehicle Farmers Agriculture Fuel Land -Hortipro Subsistence Water -Red cross -Amiran Kenya ltd Mogotio Drip kits All 10 County Drip kits Technical staff One year department of Vehicle Farmers Agriculture Fuel Land -Hortipro Subsistence Water -Red cross 27 -Amiran Kenya ltd Mogotio Affruitation All 1000 -County Vehicle Technical staff One year department of Fuel Farmers Agriculture Subsistence Land Baringo north Environmental Barwessa 1500 MOALF/MO Funds 0 By 2017 conservation /Bartabw E a wards Baringo north Purchase of Barwessa 2000 County Construction 0 Feb, 2017- June 2017 shade nets in dry /Bartabw government materials and a areas instead of a/Saimo shed net greenhouses soi wards 5. EDUCATION Baringo Regular feeding All Ministry of Provision of food Human Jan 2017 north programme to all locations agriculture items(beans, maize, resource Feb 2018 schools. rice and cooking oil Provision of All 150 schools Ministry of Pesticides, storage Land, labour Jan 2017 improved seeds to the locations agriculture, structures, Feb 2018 community. Improved improving of food subsidized seeds to storage techniques\u2019 in farmers and schools and schools. community Mogotio Be included in the Kiptoim, 5116 MOEST/Cou Food or Money Manpower and Physical 3 Years HGSFP Cheberen nty facilities and Sirwa Marigat Boarding facilities in Mukutani 10 schools -MOE -Dormitories Land By end of 2017 primary schools to and -NGOs -Food supply enhance retention in Mochong -County -Water insecure areas oi zones Government 28 East Pokot Purchase of: -bee All 18852 -Teachers -Goats Land 2017-2018 hives schools pupils -Parents -Beehives Grazing field -goats -BOM -Camels Bushes for hives -camels -Education -Cows -cows office -Food Baringo Improve honey Kapkelel 1210 -Line -Hives/ Agriculture -Land 2017 Central production wa ministries -Technical advice -Support from the -BOM community -Community 29 - Page 22\n\nBARINGO COUNTY 2016 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the and County Steering Group, Baringo County and Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 February, 2017 1 Philip Muraguri Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Erick Ooko World Vision Kenya",
            "Baringo_County_SRA_2015.pdf": "1.2 Current Factors Affecting Food Security 2 COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION ....................................................................... 3 - Page 3\n2.1 Food Security Trends 2.2 Rainfall Performance........................................................................................................ 4 - Page 4\n2.3 Current Shocks And Hazards 3 IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS ....................... 5 - Page 4\n3.1 Crop Production 3.2 Livestock Production........................................................................................................ 6 - Page 5\n3.3 Water And Sanitation - Page 8\n3.4 Markets And Trade - Page 9\n3.5 Health And Nutrition - Page 10\n3.6 Education - Page 12\n3.7 Coping Mechanisms - Page 13\n3.8 On-Going Interventions By Sector - Page 14\n3.9 Sub-County Ranking 4 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ....................................................................................... 17 - Page 17\n4.1 Prognosis Assumptions - Page 17\n4.2 Food Security Outcomes For The Next Three Months 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................ 18 - Page 17\n5.1 Conclusion - Page 18\n5.2 Summary Of Recommendations 6 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................. 18 - Page 18\n6.1 Annex 1.Food Intervention Required (Proposed Population In Need Of Assistance) - Page 18\n6.2 Annex Ii. Non-Food Interventions (By Sector) 2 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County is located in the North Western part of Kenya. It borders Turkana and Samburu counties to the 4% North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the 22% 43% Mixed Farming South West and Elgeyo-Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. It has an area of Pastoral 11,015.3 square kilometres with a Agro Pastoral population of 555,561 (KNBS, 2009 31% census report). The county has Lakes Irrigated Cropping Baringo, Bogoria, Kamnarok, and 94 which occupy an area of 165 square kilometres. It has four main livelihood zones: mixed farming, pastoral, agro- pastoral and irrigated cropping. The Figure 1. Population Distribution by Livelihood proportion of the population in each livelihood zone is 43 percent, 31percent, 22 percent and 4 percent respectively (Figure 1). It is divided into six sub-counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Marigat. 1.2 Current Factors Affecting Food Security The current factors affecting food security include livestock pests and diseases, poor road and water infrastructure, poor rainfall distribution and untimely access of certified seeds. 2 COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are classified in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones are classified in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1). The performance of the short rains season was normal to above normal. Spatial distribution was uneven while temporal distribution was fair. Currently the total maize stocks held in the county are about 89 percent of the normal. Current meal frequency for children under-five and adults is at an average of 2 \u2013 3 meals a day across all the livelihood zones which are normal. Water consumption in all livelihood zones is above the Long Term Average (LTA): in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones it is 12 \u2013 15 litres per person per day compared with the LTA of 10 \u2013 12 litres, while in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones it is 15 \u2013 20 litres per person per day compared with the LTA of 12 \u2013 15 litres. The proportion of children under five years at risk of malnutrition as measured by mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC <135 millimetres) in January 2016 was 12 percent which was below the LTA of 16.6 percent. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate was 6.9 percent (Kenya demographic health survey, 2014). The mean coping strategy index (CSI) in December 2015 was 29 compared with 21 in December 2014, implying that households were engaging more frequently in insurance coping strategies. Terms of trade are 68 compared with LTA of 66, a three percent increase. 3 2.1 Food Security Trends During the Long Rains Assessment (LRA) of 2015, the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones were classified in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones were classified in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1).With fair temporal and uneven spatial distribution of short rains, the county phase classification has remained the same. In May 2015, household food consumption scores were 15 percent, 51 percent and 34 percent for poor, borderline and acceptable categories respectively. However, by December 2015, the households with poor borderline and acceptable food consumption scores had improved to eight, 23 percent and 69 percent respectively. The available maize stocks are estimated to last for 3 \u2013 4 months in mixed farming livelihood zone whereas pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are market dependent. Households are able to consume 2 \u2013 3 meals per day which is similar to the previous season. Household milk production in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones was 1.5 litres compared to the normal of 2 litres per day. Milk consumption was 1.5 litres per day compared to normal of three litres. Milk production and consumption remained similar to the previous season. Since August 2015, water consumption has remained stable at 17.5 liters per person per day. Terms of trade have improved in the pastoral livelihood zone by eight percent in the last six months where a household could purchase 68 kilograms of maize from the sale of one goat compared with 63 kilograms in the previous season. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC <135 millimetres) dropped by 19 percent from 14.8 percent in August 2015 to 12 percent in January 2016, indicative of an improvement in nutrition levels. 2.2 Rainfall Performance The onset was timely in the second dekad (10 day period) of October. Rainfall amounts were generally above 90 percent of normal characterized by fair temporal and uneven spatial distribution. Most of the Upper Northern and Southern Eastern tip part of the county especially Kolowa and parts of Kisamana received 140 to 200 percent of normal rainfall. The lower Northern part of the county received 125-140 percent of normal rainfall including areas of Bartabwa, Kabartonjo and Mukutani. The Western, Northeastern, South Western and Upper Southern received 90-125 percent of normal rainfall. Rainfall cessation was timely in the third dekad of December, although off season rains continued into January 2016 across all livelihood zones. Figure 2. Rainfall performance 2.3 Current Shocks and Hazards The reported diseases in the county included; Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Koibatek sub- county, Contagious Caprine Pleura pneumonia (CCPP) across all livelihood zones, Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR) in Barwessa and Kinyach in Baringo North, East Pokot, Mogotio (Kimose and Emining), new castle disease across all livelihood zones, East Coast Fever (ECF) in 4 Koibatek and Churo ward in East Pokot, Lumphy Skin Disease at Barwessa ward and Mogotio- Cheberen, and the ongoing rite of passage in East Pokot. 3 IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS 3.1 Crop Production The County is most depended on long rains for crop production. The main crops grown for both food and income are maize, beans and cowpeas. Crop production contributes 20, 10 and five percent to food in the mixed farming, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively. It also contributes 35 percent, four percent and 60 percent to income in the same livelihood zones respectively. Table 1. Rain fed Crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2015 Short rains Long Term Average during 2015 Average season production production during Short rains area planted during (90 kg bags) the Short rains season season the Short rains Projected (90 kg bags) (Ha) season (Ha) Maize 1,394 1,205 13,940 15,062 Beans 1,663 1,276 11,695 10,773 Cowpeas 82.5 38 342 99 Area under cultivation for maize crop increased by 189 hectares indicative of 16 percent increase above the LTA attributed to above normal rainfall and managed incidences of Maize Lethal Neocrotic Disease (MLND). The hectares under beans and cowpeas increased by 387 and 45 hectares respectively above LTA which is attributed to enhanced short rains and widespread sensitization on utilization of above normal rains. However, there was a decrease in projected maize production by 7.44 percent compared to the LTA (Table 1), attributed to delayed planting in some areas consequently the received rains not supporting the crop to physiological maturity. For beans production increased by nine percent while for cow peas production increased significantly by 245 percent compared to the LTA due to above normal rainfall which led to maturity of the crops in most of the zones that they were established. The area planted for other crops such as Irish potatoes, peas, finger millet, sorghum and sweet potatoes during the short rains also improved due to intensified campaigns to utilize above normal rains. Irrigated Crop Table 2. Irrigated Crops Production Crop Area planted Long Term 2015 Short Long Term Average during the Average (3 rains season (3 years) production 2015 Short years) production during 2015 Short rains season area planted (90 kg bags) rains season (ha) during Short Projected (90 kg bags) rains season (ha) Maize 1350 1250 67530 62,500 Kales 330 291 1650 1446 Water melon 90 80 1800 MT 1600 MT 5 Irrigation is mainly practiced in Marigat, and Baringo North sub counties. The irrigated area of maize and kales increased by eight and 13 percent while that of tomatoes and water melon increased by four and 13 percent respectively compared to the LTA (Table 2). The increase in the hectare for all the four main crops could be attributed to increased water volumes in the rivers that feed the irrigation areas as a result of enhanced rains in the upper areas and widespread sensitization to utilize the above normal rains by the Ministry of Agriculture. Production of maize and kales increased by eight and 14 percent respectively while tomatoes and water melon increased four and 12.5 percent respectively compared to the LTA. Maize stocks Table 3 Maize Stocks in the County Maize stocks held by Quantities held currently (90- Long Term Average quantities held kg bags) (90-kg bags) at similar time of the year House Holds 363,514 414,835 Traders 84,639 87,209 Millers 17,016 18,956 NCPB 30,840 37,226 Total 496,009 558,226 Stocks held at households decreased by 12 percent compared to LTA. For traders and millers, the stocks decreased by three percent and 10 percent respectively compared to the LTA as result of poor harvest of 2015 long rains season across all livelihood zones. NCPB stocks decreased by 17 percent compared with LTA and this is attributed to low supply and increased purchases from millers and traders. In the mixed farming zone stocks are expected to last for three to four months however both the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are market dependent which is normal. 3.2 Livestock Production The major livestock in the county are cattle, goats and sheep. Production of honey is significant for income generation especially in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. In the mixed farming, agro-pastoral, pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones, livestock production contributes 23, 50, 88 and eight percent respectively to cash income. In the mixed farming, agro-pastoral, pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones, livestock production contributes 25, 20 21 and eight percent to food income respectively Pasture and Browse Pasture condition was good in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zone and fair across the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone which was slightly better than normal with exceptions in areas of agro-pastoral areas of Majimoto and Kamar, Pastoral areas of Mondi, Silale, Akwichatis, Sibilo, Barketiew, Akorian and irrigated areas of Kiserian where the conditions were poor. 6 Table 4 Pasture Duration Pastoral Agro-Pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated Current 1-2 months 1-2 months 3-4 months 3-4 months Normal 1 month 2 months 3 months 3 months In the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones on farm crop residues were used to supplement livestock feeds. Browse condition is good across the mixed farming, irrigated and the agro-pastoral livelihood zones but fair in pastoral livelihood zone. The browser condition is normal at this time of the year and is expected to last for two months with an exception of pastoral livelihood zone where it is to last for one month. Livestock Productivity Livestock body condition The body condition for cattle was good to fair across all livelihood zones which is above normal except in the localized areas named above which was fair. Normally, the condition is fair across all the livelihood zones at this time of the year but for goats and sheep was good which is normal. Birth rate and Tropical livestock Units (TLU) The TLU in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone was 1.9 for the poor households compared to normal of three per household while 3.2 for medium households compared to 3.7 the same season last year. In the pastoral livelihood zones, the TLU was 2.3 for poor while for medium households were 3.95 compared to 4.2 TLU the same season last year. A variation on average number of livestock was attributed to seasonal rainfall variations affecting forage availability and livestock diseases. The birth rates are normal for all livestock species but expected to decline attributed to livestock diseases, availability of forage and distances to water Milk availability and Consumption Milk availability at household level varies across the livelihoods. In the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones households are producing 1.5 litres of milk compared to normal of two litres. Milk consumption in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones at household level is 1.5 litres per day compared to normal of three litres of which the deficit of one litre is from purchases. Milk availability in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood was at 4.5 litres per day per household which is normal. In mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, households currently consume two litres which is normal at this time of the year. The current price of milk is Ksh 60 \u2013 75 per litre in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones which is normal. However, for the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zone the cost of milk is normal at Ksh 50 per litre which is normal at this time of the year. Water for Livestock The major water sources for livestock include boreholes, water pans, streams, and rivers. The permanent natural sources are Lakes Baringo, Kamnarok and Lake 94; the rivers are Amaya, Kerio, Pekerra, Waseges, Molo, Arabal and Mukutani. The current trekking return distance from grazing to watering points is 4 \u2013 7 kilometres which were normal in the pastoral livelihood zone with exception of Tiaty (Mondi ward) where the return distances were 7 \u2013 10 kilometres. In the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones, the return distance to water source was 1 \u2013 3 kilometres which was normal. Water for livestock is expected to last for 1.5 months in pastoral, 7 two months in agro-pastoral and throughout in irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones which are normal. The frequency of watering livestock in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zone is daily. However for the pastoral livelihood zone it is after every other day which is normal at this season. Migration The main grazing route encountered include Marigat-Arabal due to improved security, East Pokot towards Paka and Chesirimion, Maji-moto to L. Bogoria in search of pastures, Marigat to Kipcherere and Sibilo as fall back after improvement of pastures in those areas, Baringo North towards Barwessa. The normal out migration route was to Elgeiyo Marakwet County. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The reported diseases in the county were FMD in Koibatek sub-county, CCPP across all livelihood zones, PPR in Barwessa and Kinyach in Baringo North, East Pokot, Mogotio (Kimose and Emining), New Castle Disease in Kipsasaraman, Salawa, ECF \u2013 Koibatek, Baringo north, Baringo Central Mogotio-Kelelwa, Kipsogon, Sinende, Lumphy Skin Disease at Kerio Valley area and Mogotio-Cheberen, Rabies \u2013Baringo Central, Mange-Sibilo, Kolowa and Yatya and Blackquarter \u2013 Baringo North-Yatya. The county reported 80 mortalities of cattle and 40 goats and sheep due to bloat. 3.3 Water and Sanitation Major water sources The current main water sources in Baringo County are rivers/streams, springs, lakes, boreholes and pans/dams. In the mixed farming zone along the highlands of Tugen Hills, rivers, streams and springs are the main water sources while water pans, boreholes and to some extent rivers/streams are the main water sources in the agro-pastoral and pastoral areas. Most open water sources had approximately 70-80 percent recharge level. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, recharge was between 80 to 90 percent attributed to the October-November-December (OND) heavy rains however in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zone, the recharge levels were 60-70 percent attributed to high evaporation due to high temperatures and high levels of siltation. Distance to water sources The current return distances to water sources are 3 \u2013 5 kilometres in the pastoral livelihood zone, 3 \u2013 4 kilometres in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and 0.5\u20132.5 kilometres in the mixed farming livelihood zone and irrigated livelihood zones compared with the normal of 4 \u2013 6 kilometres, 4\u20135 kilometres, 0.5\u20132 kilometres in the pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones respectively. Waiting Time The waiting time at water source was within the range of 5 \u2013 10 minutes in both the pastoral livelihood zone and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Mixed farming waiting time was within 2 \u2013 3 minutes which is normal. Exceptional points like Kamar, Koibos, Molos and Majimoto, in Mogotio Sub-County, Bekibon, kapkun, Mbechot, Poi, Tuluongoiin Baringo south and Kasilangwa, Amaya and Keriwok in East Pokot Sub-county, the distance to water sources ranges between seven to eight kilometres and waiting time of 40 \u2013 60 minutes. 8 Cost of water and consumption The cost of water varies across all livelihood zones. Water drawn from pans and rivers is free. However, from boreholes and piped schemes a 20 litre jerrican costs Ksh 2 \u2013 5. In both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, this is normal while in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones the cost of water is Ksh 2 \u2013 3 which is normal. Water consumption is between 12 \u2013 15 litres per person per day compared to the LTA of 10 \u2013 15 litres per person per day in both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone whereas in the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone water consumption is at 15 - 20 litres per person per day compared to LTA of 12 \u2013 15 litres per person per day. Sanitation and Hygiene Water in rivers, streams and pans were contaminated with human waste and upstream human activities. Water borne diseases such as typhoid and dysentery were common in the county especially in the pastoral and agro\u2013pastoral zones for instance in Kambi ya Wakulima in Mogotio. About 95 percent of community members in pastoral and agro-pastoral do not treat water at household level. However, in irrigated and mixed farming approximately 50 percent treat their water through boiling and or use water guard. Water is normally stored in tins, plastic tanks or jerricans. Hand washing practices is at approximately 10-20 percent within pastoral and agro-pastoral whereas in irrigated zones and mixed farming livelihood zones is at about 40-50 percent. 3.4 Markets and Trade Market operations The main markets are Kabarnet, Eldama Ravine, Tenges, Barwessa, Marigat, Nginyang, Kipsaraman, Iloti, Amaya and Kapchorua. Food commodities sold are maize, beans, Irish potatoes, sorghum and finger millet while major livestock traded included: goats, sheep and cattle. Market operations were normal in all livelihoods. However, there was quarantine in Kapcholua in Koibatek in September 2015 of which ring vaccination for 20,000 cattle and situation was contained. Maize prices Maize price was retailing at Ksh 41per Average (2010-2014) 2014 2015 2016 kilogramme across the livelihood zones; this was 7.8 percent above the LTA of Ksh 60 38 (Figure 3). There was gradual decline ) g of maize from July to December 2015. k This could be attributed to availability of / .h 40 s maize from the long rains harvests. Stable K maize prices were observed both in the ( e 20 c mixed farming and agro-pastoral i r P livelihood zones at an average of Ksh 44 0 per kilogramme while pastoral livelihood zone recorded Ksh 50 per kilogramme, n a J b e F r a M r p A y a M n u J lu J g u A p e S t c O v o N c e D irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh 42 and Mixed Farming. Figure 3: Maize prices trends for Baringo County 9 Goat price Average (2010-2014) 2014 2015 2016 Goat price was Ksh 2,780 compared to 3500 LTA of Ksh 2,395 (Figure 4). The 3000 current price increased by 16 percent 2500 compared to the LTA and decreased by ) .h 2000 two percent in comparison to the month s K of August 2015 price. Higher goat price ( e 1500 c was observed in the irrigated livelihood ir 1000 P zone at Ksh 3,000 compared to Ksh 500 2,335 in the pastoral livelihood zone 0 a mn id x edK s fh a rm2, i8 n0 g0 lii vn e lia hg or oo d-p a zs ot no era . l Ha in ghd n a J b e F r a M r p A y a M n u J lu J g u A p e S tc O v o N c e D price was attributed to forces of supply Figure 4: Goat prices trends for Baringo and demand as well the ongoing rites of passage. Terms of trade Average (2010-2014) 2014 2015 2016 Households currently purchase 68 80 kilogrammes of maize from a sale of et a 70 zo one goat (Figure 5). The current terms i ag 60 ma of trade (TOT) were favourable to r 50 pastoralists and increased by 6 percent f oo f 40 compared to the LTA of 66 s m d e 30 g kilogrammes and also increased by a r gn a 12 00 eight percent compared to August o li Kh c x 0 2015 price. This is attributed to market e forces of supply and demand. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded a TOT of 55, irrigated livelihood zone recorded a Figure 5: Terms of trade for Baringo County TOT of 86 while agro-pastoral and mixed farming recorded a TOT of 65. 3.5 Health and Nutrition Morbidity and mortality patterns The five predominant diseases reported for both children under-five and general population were Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), malaria, diarrhoea, pneumonia and eye infections. Generally, the morbidity for children under-five was high in 2015 than in 2014 (Figure 6) .URTI, malaria, diarrhoea, pneumonia and eye infection recorded an increase of 15 percent, 20 percent, 33 percent, 16 percent and one percent between January-December 2015 respectively compared to 2014. 10 URTI, malaria and diarrhoea cases 0 increased by six percent, 30 percent 0 0. 0 and 29 percent respectively between s 5 e s 1, January-December 2015 in a C d 0 comparison with 2014 the same e 0 period whereas pneumonia and eye t r o p e 0 0 10. , infection cases slightly reduced by R fo 17 percent and 1.5 percent r e 0 0 b .0 respectively in 2015 as compared to m 0 u 5 N 2014 (Figure 7). The distance to the health facilities on average in the 0 0 pastoral areas is 20\u201350 kilometres 0. URTI Malaria Diarrhoea Pneumonia Skin depending on the location. This is an Infection 2014 2015 improvement from 35 - 75 kilometres reported in 2014. In the Figure 6: Morbidity Trend for under five mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, the average distances 00.052 r de em cra ei an se ed th ine sa mm oe r bi in d i2 ty0 15 i na s i tn h e2 01 g4 e. n T erh ae l population is attributed to the efforts put in se saC 00.002 place by both the county government and detro peR fo 00.051 p lea vr etn l e tr os ia mt pth roe v c eo hm em altu hn i at ny d a nn ud t rh ie tia ol nth s f ea rc vi il ci ety s re in the county. bm uN 00.001 Trends of epidemic prone diseases 00.05 T tyh pe hr oe i dw a as n a d s oig thn eif ri ca inn tt e sre tid nu ac l ti won o ro mf \u2019m s a cla ar si ea s, between July and December 2015 compared 00.0 URTI Malaria Diarrhoea Skin Eye Infection to 2014 same period by 60 percent, 14, Infection percent and 50 percent respectively while 2014 2015 dysentery and diarrhoea recorded an increase Figure 7: Morbidity Trend for general Population of reported cases of 10 percent and 11 percent respectively. There was a significant reduction of malaria and typhoid by 59 percent and 13.6 percent respectively for July to December 2015 compared to same period in 2014. This is attributed to the change of diagnosis from clinical to only rapid testing for malaria as a criterion of treatment occasioned by the availability of the rapid testing kits, the reduction in other diseases is attributed to community led total sanitation coupled with awareness and sensitization. This was largely seen in parts of both pastoral and agro-pastoral zones. Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation The coverage of fully immunized children under five was 58.25 percent for the period July to December 2015, compared to 55.1 percent in the same period in 2014. This is below the national target of 80 percent. The percentage of children immunized against Oral Polio Vaccine 1 (OPV 1), OPV 3 and Measles was 99.1 percent, 98.8 percent and 95.3 percent respectively between July and December 2014 while coverage decreased slightly to 97 percent, 98 percent, and 92 percent respectively between July and December 2015. Vitamin A supplementation coverage for 11 children aged 6 and 12 months between July and December 2015 improved by 32 percent from 46.87 percent in 2014 to 62.2 percent the in 2015. Likewise, Vitamin A supplementation for children between 12 and 59 months increased by 62 percent between July to December 2015 from 14 percent in 2014 to 23 percent in 2015. The latrine coverage in the county was poor but there was an increase from 53.7 percent in 2014 to 59.2 percent in 2015. This could be due to reactivation of community health units and effort by public health unit to increase the coverage as a recommendation from LRA. Latrine coverage is approximately 79 percent for mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, 16 \u2013 20 percent for pastoral (lowest coverage) and 49 percent for agro-pastoral. The low coverage is a likely a contributor to the current levels of morbidity trend among children below five years of age. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity Kenya Demographic Health Survey Average (2010-2014) 2014 2015 2016 (KNBS, 2014) indicated GAM rate 0f 25.0 6.9 percent. SMART survey (2015) ) m reported a GAM rate of 18.8 percent in m 20.0 the pastoral livelihood zone, a 5 3 1 reduction from 21.1 percent observed < 15.0 C in 2014. The county GAM was poor A U 10.0 based on KDHS results while the East M Pokot GAM was critical based on ( 'k 5.0 survey results according to World s i r t 0.0 Health Organization (WHO) ranking. a ' The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition by Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC <135 Figure 8: Percentage of children at risk of malnutrition millimetres) dropped by 19 percent from 14.8 percent in August 2015 to 12 percent in January 2016 indicative of improvement (Figure 9).The levels of GAM noted in 2015 are associated mainly with poor child care practices across the livelihood zones but more pronounced in pastoral livelihood zone. The meal frequency for children aged between 6 to 23 months in a day was 2 \u2013 3 meals as compared to the required 3 \u2013 4 meals per day. Meal frequency was normal at this particular period of the year. Food Consumption Score (FCS) for households was poor, borderline and adequate at eight percent, 23 percent and 69 percent respectively. The situation is above normal at this time of the year. The main meals consumed were maize, potatoes, milk and beans. 3.6 Education The county has 662 Primary schools, 955 early childhood education centres (ECDE) and 152 Secondary schools in 2015 third term. 12 Enrolment TABLE 5 Enrolment figures YEAR ECDE PRIMARY SECONDARY 2014 49,239 139,362 35,500 2015 55063 154,954 36,096 Compared with the same period in 2014, there was a notable increase in enrolment of 12 percent, 12 percent and 10 percent in ECDE, primary and secondary respectively across all the livelihood zones by the end of the third term 2015 (Table 5). Boys\u2019 and girls\u2019 primary enrolment increased across all the livelihood zones by 3.1 percent and five percent respectively in February 2016 compared with the same period in 2015, while at ECDE the increases were 3 percent and 4.2 percent respectively for the same period. However, enrolment in the pastoral livelihood zone reduced by 4.5 percent for primary and 13.5 percent for ECDE for the same period, attributed to early marriages for most girls and initiation of boys from November-December 2015 (continuing). The school meals programme, the employment of an additional 1,833 ECDE teachers by the county government and the opening of more ECDE centres also promoted the increase in enrolment Drop out The dropout rate at ECDE was at 3.5 percent in 2015 attributed to insecurity in the pastoral livelihood zone especially in the second term, whereas primary school dropout rate was at 6.5 percent in the pastoral livelihood zone, attributed to insecurity and ongoing rite of passage in the pastoral livelihood zone. Attendance Rate Table 6. Rate of attendance as a percent of the enrolment Indicator Term I-2015 Term II-2015 Term III -2015 % School Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls attendance (Nos.) (Nos.) (Nos.) (Nos.) (Nos.) (Nos.) Primary 93.5% 91.8% 94.08% 91% 94.23% 92.13% ECD 95.3% 94.8% 95% 94% 95% 94.8% The rate of attendance as a percentage of the enrolment remained stable for both boys and girls in primary and ECDE in 2015 from term one to term three across the County (Table6) School Meals Programme The county is implementing two types of school meals programme; Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) and Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMP). By third term 2015, RSMP and was supporting 112 schools while HGSMP was supporting 218 primary schools. About 30,099 pupils are currently benefits from RSMP up from 26,560 pupils in 2014 a 13 percent increase whereas HGSMP supports about 73,944 pupils up from 64,472 pupils a 15 percent increase. 3.7 Coping Mechanisms The mean CSI were five, 22 and 73 for poor, borderline and adequate respectively in December 2014 compared with eight, 23 and 69 for poor, borderline and adequate respectively in December 13 2015. Most common consumption related households coping strategies included; reducing the number of meals eaten per day, reducing the portion sizes of meals, relying on less preferred or less expensive food and borrowing food or relying on help from a friend or relative. 3.8 On-going Interventions by Sector Non- food interventions (food security related) Sub Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in Cost Time County beneficiari terms of food (Ksh, Frame es security Million) AGRICULTURE Baringo Horticulture ALL 2,500 County Increased 1 2015- Central development department of incomes, 2017 project( Fruit Agriculture, productivity trees County and food development Government security drip kit project ALL 120 County Increased 0.14 2017 department of incomes, Agriculture, productivity County and food Government security Baringo Rehabilitation Barwesa 500 National Improved 80 2018 North and expansion ward Government supply of Kiboi availability of Irrigation food scheme Affruitation All wards 1200 County Improved 0.84 Continu project Government access to food ous Mogotio Horticulture ALL 2,500 County Increased 1 2015- development department of incomes, 2017 project( Fruit Agriculture, productivity trees County and food development Government security East Irrigated Tangulbei- 250 Farmers Enhanced Tenders 1 Year Pokot agriculture Chemoigut /WV,NDMA household floated &MAO food security and peace Koibatek Bulking irish Lembus 1200 County Improved 1.5 1 Year potato certified government food security seeds (6Acres) and community Drip kits All wards 120 County Improved 0.2 1 Year support to government food security farmers( 10 and community kits) Baringo Subsidized All wards 200 County Improved 0.3 1 Year South ploughing government food and community production LIVESTOCK SECTOR All Forage Barwesa/Sa 250 MOLD Increase October establishment imosoi forage yield 2015/20 16 All Capacity Pastoral 200 MOLD/ASDSP Better July - Building zones Quality Decemb 14 Sub Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in Cost Time County beneficiari terms of food (Ksh, Frame es security Million) livestock er2015 Baringo Provision of Mochongoi 500 MOALF 0.25 July - north, Beehives Decemb Baringo er2015 South SaimoSoi All Livestock All lowland upgrading wards All Commercial All Wards 800HH County Govt, Income to 23 Decemb off-take SH Farmers er, 2015 Baringo Disease RVF prone 250,000 SH, County Good Oct- South, control(Vaccin areas in Cattle Govt livestock Dec, Baringo ations) RVF Marigat, Health 2015 North, SaimoSoi Tiaty and East Pokot Koibatek Disease Kapcholoi 20000 County Govt Good 0.4 Oct- control(Vaccin Cattle livestock Dec, ations) FMD Health 2015 All Tick control- County- 18 County Govt -Tick-free 2015/20 Dip wise Communiti livestock 16FY Construction es -Disease-free livestock HEALTH SECTOR County Vitamin A 6 sub - 92391 County Improved Supplementati counties department of immunity in on health, underfives' supported by resilience to WVK and illness. UNICEF County Zinc 6 sub - 1500 County Contributes Jan \u2013 Supplementati counties department of to preventing Dec on health mortality 2016 County Management 6 sub - 7083 County Contributes 3.696 Jan \u2013 of Acute counties department of to preventing Dec Malnutrition health mortality (IMAM) 2016 County IYCN 6 sub - 102656 County Builds the 0.65 Jan \u2013 Interventions counties department of resilience of Dec health caregivers 2016 County Iron Folate 6 sub - 258191 County Supplements 1.7 Jan - Supplementati counties department of where there is Dec on among health inadequate 2016 Pregnant diet diversity Women and Growth monitoring 15 Sub Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in Cost Time County beneficiari terms of food (Ksh, Frame es security Million) East Capacity 39 78 County Capacity of 2 Jan \u2013 Pokot building on department of health Dec IMAM, health, WVK workers to 2016 MIYCN, and UNCEF implement nutrition services Strengthening 23 159,404 County Capacity of 5 Jan \u2013 of CHU \u2013 department of the Dec community health, WVK community 2017 health units on and UNCEF units to nutrition implement nutrition services WATER SECTOR Baringo B/H drilling All Wards JICA Improved 1,800 2 Years central, and equipping water Baringo 100No. accessibility North, South Baringo Whole Rehabilitation All Wards 20,000 Baringo County Improved 40 Ongoin county and expansion Government/Na sustainable g of existing w/s tional water supply Government services County Roof Water All Wards 30 BCG/RVWSB/ Improved 4.5 On Harvesting to Institutions NG water going Institutions availability County Expansion of Marigat, 5,000 Baringo County Improved 15 Ongoin irrigation North Government/Na food security g schemes Baringo, tional at HH level Tiaty , Government Mogotio EDUCATION SECTOR East Construction Tangulbei ECD/Prima Ation Aid Improved 2 6 Pokot of classroom Churo ry pupils Kenya performance Months Ward and 2015/16 enrolment Advocacy on Tangulbei Primary Ation Aid Improve 10 2013- girl child-anti Churo School Kenya retention and 2017 FGM forums Ward girls transition Scholarship for Tangulbei 27 Ation Aid Enhanced 0.405 2013- Girls Churo Kenya/ Kirerea Transition 2017 Ward Foundation from Primary to Secondary Scaling up of Tangulbei 112 UNICEF Improve 2 2016/20 Nutrition status Churo through WVI nutrition 17 Ward status of school going children 16 3.9 Sub-County Ranking Sub County food security ranking (worst to best) Sub County Food security Main food security threat (if any) rank (1-10) Mogotio 1 Inadequate pastures for livestock Poor crop performance Long trekking distances to water points Low water recharge level High incidences of livestock diseases East Pokot 2 Poor crop performance Inadequate pastures for livestock Long trekking distances to water points High incidences of livestock diseases Baringo North 3 Inadequate pastures for livestock Long trekking distances to water points Baringo South 4 Inadequate pastures for livestock Baringo Central 5 Post-harvest losses due to weevils and larger grain borer Koibatek 6 Post-harvest losses due to weevils and larger grain borer 4 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions \uf0a7 The onset of the long rains in March, April and May will be timely and the temporal and spatial distribution will be favourable. \uf0a7 The market prices for cereals and livestock products will remain stable for the next three months. \uf0a7 The pasture and browse are expected to deteriorate in the next one month to early March especially in both the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones owing to the short dry spell. However from mid-March the situation is expected to improve. \uf0a7 The peace stability will prevail. 4.2 Food Security Outcomes for the Next Three Months Food Security outcomes from March to May Even though the food security situation is stressed for pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, the number of households that will employ more frequent insurance coping strategies is expected to increase. Livestock sector production is likely to improve as pasture condition is expected to have regenerated and walking distances to watering point is expected to reduce. Cases of absenteeism and drop-outs are expected to reduce especially in ECDE across all the livelihood zones with the expected school feeding programme supported by the county government. Food Security Outcomes for June to August With the assumption that the 2016 long rain onset will be timely coupled with even spatial and fair temporal distribution, the above mentioned factors will be reversed. Terms of trade especially for pastoralists are expected to be favourable and food commodities prices are 17 expected to decline. Milk production, food stocks, number of meals taken per day and dietary diversity per households across livelihood zones is expected to increase. The nutrition status of children under-five years is expected to remain stable following the availability of milk. 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion Pastoral livelihood is largely in the Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2) while agro-pastoral, mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones are in the Minimal Phase (IPC Phase 1) expect Bartabwa area in the agro-pastoral livelihood which is classified in the Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The food security situation is expected to remain stable across all the livelihood zones with more household employing stressed coping strategies in pockets of pastoral and agro-pastoral areas including Emining, Mondi, Loyamorok and Tangulbei areas. The Key factors to monitor include pasture and browse condition, water availability and access, livestock body condition and livestock and food prices. Since the county is long rains dependent, good performance of long rains is expected generally to improve the food security situation in 2016. 5.2 Summary of Recommendations \uf0a7 Enhanced rangeland management (disease control, pasture establishment and water improvement. \uf0a7 Livestock upgrading \uf0a7 Roof water harvesting of institutions. \uf0a7 Constructions of dams for irrigation water and domestic use. \uf0a7 Provision of water treatment chemicals and construction of toilet facilities. \uf0a7 Enhanced capacity building in water management and sanitation. \uf0a7 Reactivation and strengthening of community health units. \uf0a7 Sensitization and training of health workers on selected programmes( IMAM, IYCN and IMCI) \uf0a7 Increasing hectarage under irrigated agriculture in the low land areas. \uf0a7 Up-scaling and availing planting materials for drought tolerant crops. 6 ANNEXES 6.1 Annex 1.Food Intervention Required (Proposed population in need of assistance) Sub Population in Pop in need Proposed Remarks County the Sub County ( percent range min mode of \u2013 max intervention Mogotio 48,129 10-15 CFA Emining East Pokot 133,189 8-10 Mondi, Loyamorok, CFA Tangulbei Baringo 93,789 5-10 Saimosoi, Barwesa North CFA Baringo 84,256 5-10 Mukutani, Mochogoi South Baringo 78,095 - Central Koibatek 118,103 - 18 6.2 Annex II. Non-food Interventions (by sector) Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources Frame HEALTH County Strengthen County 805 ECDs MOE, Personnel, personnel 1 year wide linkages with wide (53,505) department of logistics, ECD health, WVK Funds and UNICEF (KSh.5.6 million) NDMA Data quality NDMA 12 sites NDMA, 0.5M personnel Three Sentinel assurance sentinel Department months sites sites of health, WVK and UNICEF County Scale up of County 120 health Department 2.5 million Personnel, 1 year wide HINI wide - facilities of health, RUTF, specifically new WVK and Drugs IMAM to new health UNICEF health facilities facilities County Capacity County 120 health Department 1.5 million Personnel, 1 year wide building of wide \u2013 workers of health, trainers new/untrained WVK and health UNICEF workers on IMAM, IYCN LIVESTOCK SECTOR Baringo Borehole SaimoSoi 500HH National Pasture Land and Feb- North, construction Ward Government. seeds labour June for livestock Regional Facilitatio 2016 water Pastoralist & n Resilience Project (KSh 4M) All sub- FMD Blanket All 500,000 GOK, KRDP, FMD- Personnel,Veh Feb- counties Vaccination locations Cattle,120,00 Other SH\u2019s 52M, icles ,Funds- June and purchase 0 RVF- KSh. 2016 of vaccines Shoats20,000 0.9M, birds Others - 4.25M All sub- Capacity All Wards 600HH GOK,ASDSP Training- Land July- counties Building on KRDP/EU, 1M ,Hives Oct Diversificatio Action Aid, and 2015 n(Beekeeping ACTED, Child Equipment ) Fund, WV(K) s-24M Koibatek Pasture All 2,500HH County Govt., 1M Land Feb- Baringo Establishment Lowland National- &Personnel June North, - Seeds, wards MOALF 2016 Baringo Training Central, M&E Tiaty, Mogotio 19 Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources Frame Koibatek Livestock All Wards Sahiwals-12 County Govt 1.5M - Feb- BaringoN Upgrading June orth, 2016 Galla-30 Baringo LH Baringo Support Central, Programme Tiaty, Dorper-20 Mogotio AGRICULTURE SECTOR Baringo Water ALL 20,000 County 2.5M -Human 1 year central harvesting for Government, resource, food Ministry of production water and irrigation, Department of Agriculture Food Identified sites in 500 Rice 2 Million Human 1 year Diversificatio the Sub County promotion Resource, n Unit, County Suitable (Introduction Government, land and of Upland rice Relevant climate for improved stakeholders, food security) Department of Agriculture Provision of Sub county wide 1000 MOA Funds 0 1yr subsidized assorted farm inputs East Provision of Sub county wide 1000 MOA Funds 0 1yr Pokot subsidized assorted farm inputs Expansion of kolowa 1000 County 200M land 2years irrigation Govt,NIB,K VDA Baringo Environmenta Bartabwa and 2500 County and 20 M Technical 2yrs North l conservation Barwesa wards other Stake staff holders Provision of Bartabwa, 2000 County Dept. Seed, Land 3 Year drought Saimosoi and of transport tolerant Barwesa wards Agriculture follow up, planting Training materials materials Mogotio Drought Kisanana, 2000 County Dept. Land 3Year tolerant Sirwa,Mogotio, of planting Emining Agriculture materials 20 Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources Frame Metal silos Kisanana, 15 County dept. 15 silos 180000 1 Year provision emining, groups of agriculture Mogotio Koibatek Provision of SaosKibias, 300 HHs MoAL&F Improved 60,000 2015/20 hermatic bags Perkerra, food 16 for post- Kiplombe,Kabim security harvest o,Kabiyet and management Ravine Support 200 SaosKibias, 200 HHs MoAL&F Improved 260,000 2015/20 hhs to provide Perkerra, food 16 4 kgs drought Kiplombe, security tolerant crop Kabimoi seed and 10 ,Kabiyet and kgs fertilizer Ravine each. Establishment Esageri and saos 1000 MoAL&F Improved 6,000,000 2015/20 of 2 water HHs food 16 pans for security irrigation Capacity ALL 10,000 MoAL&F Improved 2,000,000 2015/20 Built farmers HHs food 16 on GAP security WATER SECTOR Mogotio, B/H Across all 2000HHs Baringo 20M Existing 3- 6 Baringo Rehabilitatio Livelihoo County structures months South, n and d zones Government, and water Tiaty, expansion of WV, UNCEF, resource Baringo existing National south, water Government,/ Baringo supplies RVWSB Central, Koibatek Whole Water Pans All 4000HH (12 Baringo 40M Existing 2 \u2013 3 County De silting Wards/ No. water County structures Months livelihood pans) Government, zones WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National Government,/ RVWSB Whole Capacity All 6000HH Baringo 60M Organized 3- 6 County development livelihood County groups, months on water zones / Government, relevant management All Wards WV, UNCEF, TWG, and KRCS, CF, Existing sanitation ADS, NDMA, structures National Government,/ RVWSB 21 Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources Frame County PVC tanks All 100 Baringo 15M Existing 3- 6 10,000 Lts Wards/ Institutions County Structures months for Roof livelihood Government, Water zones WV, UNCEF, Harvesting KRCS, CF, to ADS, NDMA, Institutions National Government,/ RVWSB County Multi- Mixed and 10,000HH Baringo 600M Reliable 1 year purpose Irrigated (6No. dams) County water dams farming Government, sources, construction zones WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National Government,/ RVWSB EDUCATION SECTOR East Pokot Inclusion of Additional 1275 WFP/County Increase 15 M 2016/20 Upcoming 20 Children Government enrollment 17 Primary Schools , schools to performan RSMP ce and retention Baringo HGSMP/RS Barwesa, 4850 WFP/County Increase 10 M 2016/20 North MP Bartabwa, Government/M enrollment 17 Salmosoi OE , performan ce and retention Mogotio HGSMP Sirwa, 3112 WFP/County Increase 20 M 2016/20 Kingmoro Government/M enrollment 17 m, OE , Kisanana, performan Emining ce and retention Increase of Bartabwa 430 County Prevent 50,000 2016/20 Mosquito School Government/ Malaria 17 Nets and MOE cases Kipcherer Special Moi 29 County Improve 50,000 2016/20 Latrine Primary Government/ students 17 Construction School MOE welfare and health status 22 - Page 19\n\nBARINGO COUNTY 2015 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group1 (KFSSG) and County Steering Group, Baringo County February 2016 1 Victoria Amwoliza Gioto (National Drought Management Authority) Kennedy Osano (World Food Programme) and Joseph Chege (USAID)",
            "Baringo_County_SRA_2017.pdf": "1.2 Objectives And Approach - Page 4\n2.0 Drivers Of Food And Nutrition Security In The County - Page 5\n2.1 Rainfall Performance 2.2 Insecurity....................................................................................................................................... 5 - Page 5\n2.3 Other Shocks And Hazards - Page 5\n3.0 Impacts Of Drivers On Acute Food And Nutrition Security - Page 6\n3.1 Availability 3.1.1. Crop production .................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Livestock production.............................................................................................................. 8 - Page 6\n3.2 Access 3.2.1 Markets ................................................................................................................................ 12 3.2.2 Terms of trade ...................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.3 Income sources ..................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization ............................................................................. 14 3.2.5 Food consumption ................................................................................................................ 15 3.2.6 Coping strategy .................................................................................................................... 16 - Page 12\n3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ......................................................................................... 16 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation coverage ................................................... 16 3.3.3 Nutrition Status and Dietary Practices ................................................................................. 17 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene ........................................................................................................ 18 - Page 16\n3.4 Trends Of Key Food Security Indicators - Page 19\n3.5 Education - Page 20\n4.0 Food Security Prognosis - Page 22\n4.1 Prognosis Assumptions - Page 22\n4.2 Food Security Outcomes For February, March And April - Page 22\n4.3 Food Security Outcomes For May To June: - Page 22\n5.0 Conclusion And Recommendations - Page 23\n5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase classification .................................................................................................................. 23 5.1.2 Summary of findings ............................................................................................................ 23 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking .............................................................................................................. 24 - Page 23\n5.2 On-Going Interventions 5.2.1 Non-food interventions ........................................................................................................ 24 5.3 Recommended Interventions....................................................................................................... 28 5.3.1 Food interventions................................................................................................................ 28 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ........................................................................................................ 28 2 - Page 24\n\nBARINGO COUNTY 2017 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and the Baringo County Steering Group February 2018 1 Fredrick Aloo (Ministry of Agriculture Livestock and Fisheries) and 2Lydiah Wachuka (Ministry of Health) Baringo County is classified as Stressed (IPC) Phase two. The mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal (IPC) Phase one, while the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zone have remained in the Stressed (IPC) Phase 2. This situation is attributed to the good performance of the short rains which was characterized by timely onset, above normal rains but its cessation was untimely. The commodity prices have increased, where a kilogram of maize was trading at Ksh. 52 compared to long term average (LTA) of Ksh.43. The average goat prices have reduced to Ksh. 2,461 compared to the five-year average of Ksh. 2,928. Access to food is hampered by increasing maize prices and declining livestock prices. Terms of trade (ToT) are currently below normal and households are purchasing 48 Kg of maize from the sale of a goat compared to long term average (LTA) of 50Kg. Low livestock prices have contributed to low purchasing power for food commodities whose prices are high The pasture and browse condition is fair in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones but poor and depleting at a first rate in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The situation has been further aggravated by the infestation of fall army warm in farms which resulted in significant reduction of maize output in mixed farming, irrigated and agro pastoral livelihood zones by about 60 percent. Food stocks at household level have considerably declined especially in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones where 90 percent of the households depend on the markets. Conflicts have resulted in disruption and even closure of markets. The food security situation in the pastoral and agro-pastoral zones is expected to deteriorate further in view of the prevailing conditions of deteriorating forage and declining amounts in water sources. Return distances between the water sources and grazing areas is 15 kilometres which is longer than the normal distance of 10 kilometres in pastoral livelihood zone, while households are currently walking a distance of about 8 kilometres compared to 4 kilometres normally thereby limiting access to domestic water sources. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition is generally above the normal threshold for the last five years across the livelihoods. From the month of October 2017, the trend has been worsening and in January 2018 it stood at 18.5 percent. The worsening trend can be attributed to low milk availability at the household level and minimal stocks within households. The trend is expected to worsen further until the onset of the long rains. There was a slight improvement in dietary diversity, nutritive value and food frequency in the county compared to a similar period last year. The proportion for the households which had acceptable food consumption score was 70 and 59 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively. This is in comparison to those who had poor food consumption score at 6.7 and 25.6 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively in the month of January 2018 as compared to 17 and 52 percent respectively in December 2017. The mean coping strategy index for the month of January 2018 is 15.74, which represents an increase when compared to the coping strategy index of the previous month that was 13.13 but still within normal coping strategies for stressed household of using less preffered and or less expensive foods but doing better than same period in 2017 with a CSI of 20. 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The County covers an area of 11,015.3 square kilometers (Km) with an estimated population of 555,561 persons (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2009 census report). The County has 4 lakes (Lake Baringo, Lake Bogoria and Lake Kamnarok and Lake 94) covering an approximate 165 Km. The County has six (6) sub Counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Baringo South. The County is divided into four livelihood zones (LZ) namely, Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and 4 percent respectively (Figure 1). 1.2 Objectives and approach The main objective was to analyze the impact of 2017 short rains season (October, November and December) on food and nutrition security, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide immediate and medium term recommendations for possible response options based on the situation. The food security assessment for the County was conducted from 5th to 9th January 2017 using a multi-sectoral approach. All the four livelihood zones were covered during the assessment and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) used to classify severity and causes of food insecurity which has the ability to compare across time and space. The process started by gathering data using sectoral checklists coupled with conducting a minimum of two market interviews, two focused group community interviews and two key informant interviews in each livelihood zone. Triangulation of data was enhanced by visiting health and education institutions to gather applicable data. Field observations were also undertaken during transects drives to obtain qualitative data. The field data was collated, reviewed, analyzed and triangulated which resulted to the county food security assessment report whose preliminary findings were disseminated to CSG during debriefing meeting. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The onset of the short rains season was in the second dekad of October which was timely. Most parts across the county including pastoral-all species, agro-pastoral, mixed farming received above- normal rainfall of between 125-200 percent of normal (Figure 2). However, some parts of pastoral all species around Nginyang in Tiaty received 50-70 percent of normal. Spatial distribution was even while temporal distribution was fair. Cessation was in the second dekad of December which is earlier. Normally rains end in the third dekad of December. Figure 1: Rainfall performance in Baringo County 2.2 Insecurity Insecurity has been reported along the borders of East Pokot sub-county with Marakwet East, Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties and also in Kapedo along the border with Turkana County. Pastoralists have not been able to access pasture in these areas and have therefore been forced to move farther away. 2.3 Other Shocks and Hazards A fall army worm out-break was reported in all livelihood zones across the county and have significantly led to reduction by about 60 percent of the normal production. The impact of fall army worm has resulted to low stock levels in households at 48 percent of the Long Term Average. Food prices have increased and they are expected to increase further until the next harvest in JulyAugust. Livestock prices are below-average amid high food commodity prices. Household purchasing power has been eroded Most households about 90 percent are currently relying on market purchases for food in the agro-pastoral and pastoral-all species livelihood zones. Foot and Mouth (FMD) disease outbreak was reported in Rongai sub-county in neighbouring Nakuru County, there were suspected cases in Tirioko. Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) reported in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones of Koloa in Tiaty,Barwesa and Saimosoi in Baringo North,Salawa in Baringo Central. Cases of heart water were reported in Amaya and Churo. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON ACUTE FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability The food availability in the county is from own agricultural production, markets which rely on local production, net food imports and livestock production. The 2017 short rains harvests were affected by offseason rains which impacted on the area planted as farmers had already planted, therefore the acreage for the short rains reduced. The fall army worm infestation reduced the production further. Also early cessation of the short rains and high temperatures affected crop and livestock production thus exposing households to market dependency. Conflicts such as cattle rustling resulted in market disruptions. Current food stocks available in the mixed livelihood zones are insufficient to sustain the households for the next three months and will have to rely on markets. While pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones will rely on interventions. 3.1.1. Crop production The short rains (October, November, and December) supplements the harvest from the Long rains season which is the most dependable for crop production in Baringo County. The main crops grown include maize, beans, finger millet and Irish potatoes. Upland rice is grown in Marigat sub-county. Maize contributes about 63 percent of food to household in the agro pastoral livelihood zones and while in the irrigated zones, commercial maize contributes about 31 percent food. In the mixed farming maize contributes 21 percent of food. Rain-fed crop production The acreage under cultivation for maize and beans reduced by 81 percent and 66.5 percent below the Long-Term average respectively. Consequently, the expected production for maize and beans is projected to be 93.5 percent and 62 percent below the Long-Term average respectively (Table 1). This is attributed to the fact that most farms had crops established from the off-season rains (July-August-September. Incidences of Fall Army Worms (FAW) which was experienced across the county during the long rains of 2017 also contributed to the low establishment of maize crop under the short rains as farmers were advised not to plant maize so as to break the FAW cycle. However, in mixed farming livelihood zone of Mochongoi ward the area under Irish potatoes increased by 12 percent of the Long-Term Average, this is attributed to the good price that prevailed in the previous season. Table 1: Rain-fed (3 major crops) Crop Area Long Term 2017 Short rains Long Term Average planted Average season production during during area planted production the Short rains 2017 Short during the Short (90 kg bags) season rains rains season (Ha) ProjectedActual (90 kg bags) season 1. Maize 89 465 610 9450 2. Beans 328 978 4124 10607 3. Finger millet 10 60 40 330 4.Irish Potatoes 1355 1212 12995 16932 Irrigated crop production The area under irrigation for maize, tomatoes, water melons and green grams increased by 50, 10 , 47.6 and 125 percent respectively of their long-term averages (Table 2). The main reasons for the increase was that most of the rivers and other water bodies (which form part the source for irrigation) had recharged during the long rains 2017 (April, May, June), Off-season rains (July-August) coupled by the short rains (October, November and December). The above reason also explains the consistency in production as soil moisture was adequate for production of the short season crops under irrigation (which are mainly vegetables and pulses). The area under green grams tremendously increased because farmers were contracted by Kenya Seed Company to produce green gram seed. The increase in acreage resulted in the increase in production of Tomatoes, water melons and green grams by 18.7, 41.4 and 125 percent of their normal production respectively (Table 2). However maize production reduced by 10.4 percent of the normal due to infestation of the Fall Army Worm. The area under irrigation for beans reduced by 77 percent of the long term average. Table 2: Irrigated (Major crops) Crop Area planted Long Term 2017 Short rains Long Term Average during 2017 Average season production during Short rains area planted production the Short rains season during the Short (90 kg bags) season (Ha) rains season (Ha) ProjectedActual (90 kg bags) Maize 50 25 1120 1250 Beans 7 30 48 300 Tomatoes 34 31 458 386 melons 119.6 81 2156.8 1524 Kales 34.2 46.5 240 737.5 Green grams 360 160 3600 1600 Main cereal stocks All cereal stocks held by households were below-average (Table 3) in the county. Maize stocks were at 48 percent of their LTA, while millet and sorghum stocks reduced by 6 and 85 percent below their LTAs respectively. Table 3 Table 3: Main cereals stock Commodity (90 kg bags) Period Households Traders Millers NCPB Total Maize Current 309,429 82,011 14,297 13,270 419407 LTA 593,945 102,673 18,314 39,000 753632 Rice (in 50 kg bags) Current 0 2335 0 0 2335 LTA 0 2465 0 0 2465 Millet Current 2400 616 120 0 3136 LTA 2544 530 200 0 3274 Sorghum Current 76 178 66 0 320 LTA 524 644 120 0 1288 Maize stocks currently held by households in mixed farming livelihood zone are about 77 percent of the total. Households in the Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed zones do not have any stocks and are depending on traderslocal markets for purchase which mainly sourced from outside the County. Maize stocks held by traders and millers are 80 and 78 percent of the LTA for Maize while Millet stocks held by traders was 16 percent more than LTA and this was attributed to more household buying from markets for milling purposes and complementing with Maize flour, sorghum stocks held by traders were 28 percent of the LTA. 3.1.2 Livestock production The main livestock species kept in the county include; cattle, camels, goats, sheep, honeybees and poultry. The short rains do contribute significantly to regeneration of pasture and fodder in the county hence the importance for its utilization in rejuvenating strategic feed reserves and milk production at household in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Table 4 below shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 4: Contribution of livestock production to food and income in Baringo County Livelihood zone contribution to Food Income Mixed farming 25 23 Irrigated cropping 25 8 Agro-pastoral 20 50 Pastoral-all species 21 88 Forage condition The forage condition was below normal across all livelihood zones. The pasture condition was fair in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. In agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones, the condition was fair to poor and poor respectively. The impact of the off- season and short rains, led to good regeneration of pasture in fenced areas and fair regeneration in open areas. The pastures are expected to last till the end of March. The browse condition was good to fair in both mixed and irrigated cropping zones, fair in agro- pastoral zones and fair to poor in pastoral livelihood zones. It is expected to last up-to mid- march. Factors limiting access to forage include scarce forage, limited livestock water and resource based conflict along the borders of Baringo North and Tiaty, Baringo south and Tiaty, Baringo and Keiyo Marakwet, and Baringo and both Laikipia and Samburu Table 5: Pasture and Browse condition One and Mixed Good to Good to Fair half 3 Good 2 3 farming fair fair Irrigated One and Good to Good to croppin Fair half 3 Good 2 3 fair fair g months Agro- Fair to Good to Fair 1 month 2 Fair 1 2 pastoral Poor fair Fair to Pastoral Poor Fair 1 month 2 Fair 1 2 Livestock productivity Livestock body condition The improvement in livestock body condition is attributed to the cumulative effect of the off- season rains coupled with above normal short rains witnessed. Similarly, the rains slightly reduced trekking distance but the regenerated pastures are rapidly being utilized. Pastures enclosures are in good condition and therefore able to sustain the body condition in those areas as the short dry spell continues. Below is the livestock body condition across the livelihood Table 6: Livestock body condition Liveliho Cattle Sheep Goat Camel od Zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal ly ly ly ly ly ly ly ly Mixed Good Good Good Good Good Good NA NA Irrigated Good Good Good Good Good Good Agro- Good to Good Good to Good Good Good Good Good pastoral Fair Fair Pastoral Fair to Good Good to Good Good to Good Good Good Poor Fair Fair Birth rate The birth rates were normal at three percent due to the conducive conditions created by the impact of the off-season and short rains. Tropical livestock units (TLUs) There was a reduction in TLUs for both poor- and medium-income households across all livelihood zones compared to normal (Table 7). The Reduced birth rates, abortions and livestock mortalities were due to poor performance of the past previous accumulated rainfall seasons as the livestock body conditions and fertility level deteriorated. Table 7: Tropical livestock units Mixed faming 1.8 2.8 Mixed 1.8 faming Irrigated cropping 2 3.2 Irrigated 2 Agro-pastoral 2.5 3.2 Agro- 2.5 Pastoral 2.5 3.6 Pastoral 2.5 The average translated to 2.2 in poor HH as compared to four in medium HH Milk production and consumption There was slight increase in milk production as compared to the similar season 2017. However, both milk production and consumption are below the LTA. About 30 percent of milk sold in the pastoral all species livelihood zones come from mixed farming livelihood zones. As compared to the previous season there was decrease in milk prices as shown in the table 8 below Table 8: Milk production and consumption Livelihood zone Milk production per Milk consumption per Prices(KES) HH(Lts) HH(Lts) Current Normal Current Current Normal Mixed farming 4-6 10 1.5 Mixed 4-6 10 Irrigated cropping 4-6 8 1.5 Irrigated 4-6 8 Agro-pastoral 1 6 0.9 Agro- 1 6 Pastoral 0.5 3 0.5 Pastoral 0.5 3 Water for Livestock The main sources of water include boreholes, permanent rivers, Lakes and pans which are in Kerio, Amaya, Pekerra, Molo, Alabal, Wasenges and Mukutani. Lakes include Bogoria, Baringo,and Kamnarok. The water pans were recharged at 50 percent but are now drying up rapidly due to onset of dry period. The trekking distance are currently above normal ranges but are lower than the previous season Table 9. There was no change in watering frequency. Table 9: Water for livestock Liveli Sources Return trekking Expected duration Watering frequency hood distance(Km) Current Normal Current Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Streams, Streams, 0.5-3 1-1.5 Mixed Streams, Streams, 0.5-3 farming Rivers, Rivers, farming Rivers, Rivers, springs, springs, springs, springs, piped piped piped piped water, water, water, water, boreholes, boreholes, boreholes, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, Rivers, 0.5-3 1-1.5 Irrigated Rivers, Rivers, 0.5-3 cropping shallow shallow cropping shallow shallow wells and wells and wells and wells and springs. springs. springs. springs. Agro- water Streams, 3-7 1-3 Agro- water Streams, 3-7 pastoral pans, water pastoral pans, water rivers pans, rivers pans, Boreholes Boreholes Boreholes Boreholes Pastoral Water- Water- 6-13 1-4 Pastoral Water- Water- 6-13 pans, pans, pans, pans, Bore-holes Bore-holes Bore-holes Bore-holes Migration Livestock migrations was taking place within the county. Some of the migrations were normal in search of pastures while others near the borders were due to conflicts such as cattle rustling. The main livestock species that was migrating was cattle. The current migration trends are as shown in the table below. Table 10: Migration routes Sub-county Migration routes Livestock species and reasons Pastoral all -Nyimbei and Chebinyiny to Mochongoi Cattle in search of pastures species and -Marigat to Arabal and return of security Agropastoral livelihood zone Baringo south Pastoral all -Sibilo and Yatya bartum Cattle in search of pastures species -Barwessa towards Kerio River and insecurity fears livelihood zones -Yatya towards Sibilo and Bartum Baringo north Marginal Mixed -Kamar and Majimoto to L.Bogoria and Cattle in search of pastures farming Loboi areas. livelihood zone -Sagasagik, Kiplombe and Maji mazuri forests in (Mogotio) ERavine Sub county. -Sinende, to Mochongoi in Baringo South Pastoral all -Silale- Paka hills-Akwicha tis-Nabukuti- Cattle in search of pastures species Nadome livelihood -Chesirimion-Orus-chepkalacha- mukutani zone(Tiaty) -Chemsik-Chepanta and Maron -Kolloa-Sukut- Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The diseases occurrence reported in the county are as indicated in the table 11 below. The diseases were in the normal ranges as there was no quarantine imposed. There were no mortalities due to drought save for few diseases related mortalities. Disease surveillance and vaccination were undertaken in targeted sub-counties as per available resources. Table 11: Livestock diseases Contagious Caprine Tiaty 70 Kolowa, Ngoron, Silale, Pleuro pneumonia Churo, Kamurio, Loiwat, (CCPP) Kaptuya, Akoret Goats 35 goats Majimoto, Kamar, Kimose, Sacho Soi location BCentral goats 55 goats Sheep goat pox BCentral sheep 21 sheep Kapropita Soi location PPR Kimalel goats 25goats Saimo soi, Barwessa M North none Mogotio none Kamar, majimoto, Emining, cattle none ERavine FMD Chepnes, Torongo Silale, Ribkwo Wards Tiaty none Kiptoim, Lembus Mogotio ,Chemogoch, Kipsogon, Emining LSD Lembus ward ERavine Mogotio, Kimose, Cheberen mogotio Cattle none Rabies BNorth dogs none Saimo soi, Barwessa Heart water Ewalel soi 90 goats Heart water Sibilo BNorth goats 90 goats Red water Tirioko, Akoret cattle None New Castle Disease Kabarnet and Kaptopita BCentral ward 4,000 birds Poultry Livestock Mortalities Mortality rates for all the livestock species are normal at two percent across all the livelihood 3.2 Access Food access in the county can be described by the markets functionality particularly for households in all the livelihood zones. Currently about 90 percent of households in pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are largely dependent on markets as their main food source. 3.2.1 Markets Market operations The main markets in the county include Barwessa, Kolloa, Marigat, Nginyang, Kinyach, among others. Mixed farming Livelihood zones, have markets in Kabel, Kipsarama, Iloti, Kapchorua, Kapcholoi and Mogotio. The Agropastoral livelihood zones have markets in Emining and Kaptara, Markets in pastoral livelihood zones are in Kolloa, Loruk, Nginyang, Tangulbei, Amaya and Kinyach. Marigat and Barwessa markets are in the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone. All markets are functional except for Kinyach market which has been closed due to insecurity. The main livestock available in the markets were cattle, sheep and goats. There was an influx of livestock in the main markets resulting to low livestock prices being recorded which downplay the farmers purchasing power. The main reason of influx of livestock in the markets was increased numbers for sale of livestock in order to raise secondary school fees for children. The markets play a crucial role towards realization of the accessibility pillar of food security in terms of availing the food and income from the sales of the livestock. The main agricultural commodities in the markets are Maize, beans, greengrams and horticultural crops. Most of the cereals are imported from Nakuru, Uasin gishu Trans nzoia there is also internal trade from mixed farming zones to pastoral and agropastoral zones Maize prices Maize prices were 20 percent higher than the 2012-2016 LTA (Figure 3) and 5 percent lower than price in January 2017. The high prices were occassioned by low supplies and poor harvests. Prices are highest in the pastoral-all species livelihooh zone and agropastoral livelihood zones at Figure 2: Maize price trends average of Ksh 60. Goat prices The average price of a goat increased steadily from october to December this was attributed to improved body conditions and the festive season. However, the price decreased by 9 percent from Ksh. 2,709 in the month December 2017 to Ksh.2,461 in the month of January 2018. The prices were below the LTA by 16 percent (Figure 4) ; but above last year prices by 10 percent Figure 3: Goat price trends attributed to market dynamics and improvement of body condition due to improvement of pasture and browse. The Goat prices were highest in irrigated at Ksh. 2,604 and lowest in Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 1,875. The prices may slightly drop as prevailing dry spell may have impact on the body condition 3.2.2 Terms of trade The Terms of trade have been on an increasing trend from October to December. However, they decreased to 48.1kg in January. The current ToT is slightly below the long-term average by 4 percent (Figure 5). The drop was due to decrease in the livestock prices in January. Figure 4: Terms of trade 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of income in the county include livestock and crop production. Income from crop production has significantly reduced across all livelihood zones due to reduction in yield. Rainfall failure in the previous short and long rains in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones resulted in loss of livelihood assets mainly livestock. The households have now engaged in other income sources such as the sale of charcoal, which will result in further deforestation of already degraded rangelands. 3.2.4 Water availability, access and utilization Major water sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; water pans, springs and boreholes. The water sources were recharged at about 70 to 80 percent across all livelihoods as a result of the short rains and off some season rains during the lean season of July to Septembe. However, surface water sources are currently holding approximately 40 to 50 percent of their normal capacities as indicated in Table 12. Table 12: Status of water sources Ward Water No. of No. of Projected Normal of full Locality of Non- Livelihood Source Normal Current Duration Duration Capacity operational Water zone (Three Operati Operati (Operation that Recharged Sources (3) onal onal al Sources) water by the major Sources last in Rains sources) months Pastoral Bore 76 63 Over 3 Over 6 stable Kirim Nyimbei, Holes Months months Kapkun, Chebinyiny, Ngoron, Nasorot, Water 63 36 1 1 3 4 70 - 80 Kirim, Kasiela, Endao Pans Months etc Springs 10 - 2 - 3 Months 3 4 50 - 60 Agro - Bore 56 45 Over 3 Over 6 Stable Kabirgei, Pastoral Holes Months months Kemnyunguny Water 23 16 1 1 3 4 70 - 80 Kaptombes Pans Months Springs 18 3 1 1 Over 6 Mixed Bore 39 32 Over 3 Over 6 Stable Seretunin, Kipkaech, Farming Holes Months months Mochongoi Springs 135 133 2 2 3 4 50 - 60 Rivers 6 6 2 2 3 4 70 - 80 Irrigated Rivers 6 6 3months 6 70 - 80 Cropping months Shallow 8 3 3months 6 Reducing Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Wells months Discharge Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, Swamps 3 3 Over 3 Distance to water sources Due to below normal recharge and reduced flow rate, current distance to other water sources have increased by six to eight kilometres from the normal four to five kilometres in the pastoral zone. In the agro pastoral livelihood, distances increased from three to four kilometres normally to six to seven and in the irrigated cropping zone, from the normal half to one and half kilometres to one to two kilometres. In the mixed farming zones, the distances increased from the normal of one to two and half kilometres to two to four Kilometres. The increase has been occasioned by drying up of some open water sources and breakdown of boreholes in all livelihood zones (Table 13). Water consumption and cost Current water consumption is 12-15 litres per person per day compared to 15-20 litres per person per day in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihoods, 15-20 litres per person per day from 20-25 litres per person per day in the mixed farming zones normally. The Irrigated livelihood zone is at normal (20-25 litres). Cost of water has remained within the normal of Ksh. 3-5 per 20 litres jerrican at the water kiosks and boreholes in all livelihood zones Households using billed water are stressed due to high water bills. Waiting time The current waiting time varies between five to ten minutes at the boreholes as compared to the normal of three to five minutes in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones, five to seven from two to four minutes in the mixed farming zone and within the normal range of one to three in the irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The increase in waiting time can be attributed to high demand at those water points (Table 13). Table 13: Access to domestic water Ward Return Distance to Cost of Water at Waiting Time at Average Water livelihood Water for Domestic Source (Ksh. Per Water Source Consumption zone Use (Km) 20litres) (Minutes) (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 4 - 5 6 8 3 5 3 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 20 12 15 Agro- 3 - 4 6 7 3 5 3 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 20 12 15 Pastoral Irrigated 0.5 - 1.5 1 2.2 3 5 3 5 1 - 3 1 - 3 20 25 20 25 Mixed 1 2.5 2 4 3 5 3 5 2 4 5 - 7 20 25 15 20 Farming 3.2.5 Food consumption There was a slight improvement in dietary diversity, nutritive value and food frequency in the county compared to a similar period last year. The proportion for the households which had acceptable food consumption score was 70 and 59 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively (Figure Figure 5: Food consumption groups 6). This is in comparison to those who had poor food consumption score at 6.7 and 25.6 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively in the month of January 2018. In comparison to the month of January 2017 there is a significant improvement since households with poor food consumption score was recorded at 17 and 52 percent in Baringo north and Tiaty sub counties respectively 3.2.6 Coping strategy The mean coping strategy index for the month of January 2018 is 15.74, which is an increase when compared to the coping strategy index of the previous month that was 13.13 but still within normal coping strategies for stressed household of consuming less preffered and or less expensive foods but doing better than same period in 2017 when the CSI was 20. The CSI for Pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in the month of January 2018 is 18.4 and 15.3 respectively and CSI for irrigated livelihood zone average 2.8 but an improvement in the same period in 2017 which was at 23.8, 15.6 and 4.2 respectively. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns 160000 TRENDS IN MORBIDITY FOR UNDER FIVES AND GENERAL POPULATION The major morbidities from July to Dec 2017 for children less than five years are URTI, malaria, and Diarrhoea. The morbidity for this cohort increased by URTI 15.6 compared to the same period in Diarrheao Jan 2017, Figure 7. This could be Malaria attributed to the off season rains and staff 40000 strike that affected treatment access. 20000 There was no epidemic from July to Figure 6: M20 o1 r6 t2 r0 e1 n6 dG sP 2017 U5 2017 GP December 2017. However, there was an upsurge of clinical Malaria cases in Tiaty although this is not reflected in the DHIS report due to poor reporting because of insecurity and Nurses strike. The average distance to the nearest Health facility ranges from 35KM in East Pokot, to 6 Km in Baringo North. However, this was mitigated by integrated outreaches and the catch up campaign which brought services nearer to the communities 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation coverage The fully immunized child (FIC) coverage recorded a reduction of 16.6 percent down from 66.6 percent, compared to same period in 2017 (Figure 8). The 50 percent coverage remained below the national target of 80 percent). The 16.6 percent reduction in coverage for FIC could be attributed to the problems faced by the sector including the Nurses strike, some facilities especially dispensaries closed due to staff shortage. This is despite the implementation of outreach in hard to reach area and catch up Figure 8: Immunization coverage campaign. Vitamin A supplementation coverage for children 6-11 month reduced by 29.4 percent from 70.2 percent to 40.8 percent (Figure 9), attributed to staff strike. However, there is an increase in Vitamin A supplementation for Children 12-59 by 27 percent to 56.6 percent compared to same period in 2016. The coverage is below the national target (80 percent). The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 12-59 months can be attributed to malezi Bora activities which made use of ECD and Community Health Units in Baringo Central,Baringo South, Mogotio and Baringo North Sub Counties respectively. Despite reduced immunization coverage the childhood morbidity remained Figure 9: Vitamin A coverage trends in Baringo normal as same period 2017 3.3.3 Nutrition Status and Dietary Practices 3.3.3.1 Food consumption Patterns Most households are consuming an average of one to two meals in a day comprising of mainly tea, maize meal, and porridge in the Pastoral livelihood zones, also 90 percent of mothers introduce herbal teas with cows milk as early as two weeks, which explains low EBF rates of 36 percent which is below national target of 80 percent. Households in the Mixed, Irrigated zone and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are accessing 2-3 meals in a day with advantage of vegetables. Majority of children are introduced to herbal tea and milk before six months in these livelihoods. Current water consumption in pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated zones are 12-15 litres and 15-20 litres in mixed farming zones. Minimal water treatment was practiced among households in East Pokot sub-county where the main water source though depleted serve both livestock and households. 3.3.3.2 Nutrition status The proportion of children (6-59 months) at risk of malnutrition was stable from October to December (13 to 12 percent); attributed to accelerated intervention in October and November. However, it increased to 18 percent in January 2018 compared to the LTA of 16.6 percent (Figure 10). Reports from CHANIS (Underweight) currently range from Figure 10: Children at risk of malnutrition 6.7 percent in July 2017 to 9.0 percent in Dec 2017 among children less than five years for the county. East Pokot, all pastoral livelihood zone reported the high levels of vulnerability compared to other livelihood zones across all sectors thus SMART survey carried out in July 2017 indicated critical nutrition status with GAM levels of 25 percent (Figure 11). Figure 11: Malnutrition trends The proportion admitted in the SFP and OTP programmes remained above LTA with disruptions in documentations due to health worker strikes, insecurity and mass screening (Figure 12). Malnutrition Screening, OTP and ITP admissions trends. The December 2017 East Pokot 2017 2016 2015 2014 LTM (5-yr average) sub-county Semi-Quantitative Evaluation of Access and Coverage (SQUEAC) survey o is 700 found an estimated OTP s im 600 coverage of 45.9 percent and a SFP coverage of 29.7 percent. e n 400 This is far below the r 300 recommended SPHERE b m 200 standards of 50 percent for N 100 rural areas. This was attributed to stock outs, long distances, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 12: Trends in OTP admissions migration and poor motivation Month of CHVs involved in screening and referrals. Nutrition status is likely to deteriorate till onset of long rains in marginal mixed livelihood of Marigat, Mogotio but likely to be stable or improve in East Pokot where blanket SFP and facility based SFP interventions are ongoing. Most households across all livelihoods have foods stocks likely to last one month attributed to low harvests and will be relying on markets for food access compared to same period in Jan 2017. 3.3.2 Sanitation and Hygiene TOILET COVERAGE PER LIVELIHOOD Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock wade directly into pastoral agro pastoral irrigated crop mixed farming open water sources. Most water sources dont have a separate water collection point for livestock and human. Cases of typhoid Figure 13: Latrine4 5co verage 16 and amoeba have been reported in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral zone at less than 10 percent and highest in mixed farming at 55 percent. Low latrine coverage is associated with associated with cultural values. Most households in the Pastoral zone use bushes, posing a health risk especially during rainy season. Water treatment at household level is very low and drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. Prolonged storage is mainly practiced enabling sedimentation. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 14: Food security trends Indicator Long rains assessment, July Short rains assessment, Jan 2018 Maize stocks held by 50.7 48 households () (mixed farming) Livestock body condition Poor for cattle, Fair to good Good for all livestock species in Mixed for the rest farming and irrigated cropping livelihood Good to fair for cattle and sheep in agro- pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones For goats good in agropastoral but good to fair in pastoral all species livelihood zones Water consumption (litres per Pastoral-all species: 10-15 Pastoral-all species: 12-15 person per day) Agro-pastoral: 10-15 Agro-pastoral: 12-15 Mixed farming: 15-20 Mixed farming: 15 - 20 Irrigated cropping: 20-25 Irrigated cropping: 20 -25 Price of maize (Ksh. per kg) 81 Average Ksh. 52kg (Pastoral Agro-p: 60, Mixed Irrigated: Ksh 30-35Kg Mid-upper arm circumference 25 18.5 (MUAC) Terms of trade 18 48.1 (number of kilograms purchased from the proceeds of the sale of a goat) Coping strategy index Mean CSI 20 Mean CSI: 15.74 (Jan) Pastoral:18.4, Agro-pastoral: 15.3, Irrigated zone: 2.8 Food consumption score (Jan 2017) Jan 2018 (percent) Poor 19 poor:18 Borderline 32 Borderline:20 Acceptable 49 Acceptable:61 3.5 Education Access Generally there was an increase in ECD enrolment by 3.4 percent in Term l 2018 compared to Term lll 2017. The ratio of boys to girls at ECD level is 1 to 1. Primary school enrolment declined by 1.6 percent in Term lll 2017 compared to Term l 2018. This is due the implementation of Teacher Performance Appraisal Development Performance contracting Teacher Management Information System. (TPADPCTMIS Implementation of Free Day Secondary Education (FDSE) had an effect on a higher rate transition from primary to secondary level. In Term lll 2017 enrolment in secondary schools for boys and girls increased by 8.3 and 14.2 percent respectively, compared Term 1 2018 Table 14. East Pokot had the lowest enrollment of secondary school students with a total of 1,356 boys and 830 girls in Term l 2018. However, there was an increase compared to Term lll 2017 with a proportion of 7.6 percent for both boys and girls. Table 15: Enrolment in schools Term III 2017 Term I 2018 (includes new students registered and drop- outs since Term III 2017) Enrolment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECD 34424 33648 68171 36111 34360 70,471 Primary 76725 71232 147157 74612 70252 144864 Secondary 19602 19040 38642 21237 21740 42977 Participation The ECDE attendance average in Term lll 2017 for boys and girls was 35,216 and 34,334 respectively. The average attendance for boys and girls in primary was 76,206 and 71,716 respectively. For secondary school the average attendance for boys was 19,932 and girls was 18,864. It there means that absenteeism was minimal at all levels of learning. Table 16: School attendance Term III 2017 Term I 2018 Indicator September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 January 2018 School attendance Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls ECD 35137 34309 35255 34352 35258 34343 37077 36000 Primary 76426 71989 76247 71582 75945 71577 77389 61992 Secondary 19237 18649 19288 18977 21272 18965 20808 20410 Retention In ECD, the female dropout rate jumped from 3 percent in Term II 2017 to 7 at the end of Term III 2017 while in primary the rate increased from 4 to 9 percent over the same period. For males, the rate decreased from 5, to 0.2 percent as shown in table 17. The major reasons for dropping-out included the absence of food in schools, migration of families to water points In primary schools, the reasons given for dropping out were insecurityviolence, family labor responsibilities together with an absence of food in schools. In secondary school the dropout rate decreased by 2.2 percent for boys. However, there was no drop out for girl. Instead there was an increase in enrolment in the proportion girls by 7.6 percent in Term l 2018 compared to Term lll 2107. The reason of dropout for girls was due early marriages, pregnancies and lack of school fees, for boys it was caused by family labour, lack of school fees and boda boda business. Table 17: Schools drop-outs Indicator End of Term II 2017 End of Term III 2017 Students dropped out from Boys Girls Boys Girls school ECD 500 500 621 534 Primary 210 190 481 585 Secondary 100 100 464 332 School meals program The County benefits from HGSMP funded by the MOE and WFP that benefits 337 primary schools from Mogotio, Baringo Central, Baringo North, Marigat and Tiaty (still under RSMP) as shown in Table 18. Expanded school meals programme was distributed in Baringo North Sub County to caution the drought that affected schools that were not under HGSMP. It benefitted a total of 13,943 pupils of which 7,148 were boys and 6,795 were girls. Table 18: School meals programme Name of sub- of schools HGSM Other feeding programmes county feeding ESMP CSMP Boys Girls Boys Girls Mogotio 67 10586 10489 3,906 3,644 Baringo Central 31 3410 2909 Tiaty 119 1,292 411 Marigat 49 6347 6295 2,534 2,354 Baringo North 71 6937 6539 Koibatek Nil Challenges facing school meals programme is shortage of water in schools hence lack of water for cooking the food, delays in food distribution and insecurity. The ECD are not covered in the national school meals program and allocated food by national government has to be shared by ECDs hence leading to faster depletion. Approximately 20 percent of the schools in the county are facing severe water shortage as result of drying of water sources and lack of water storage facilities in schools. Inter-sector links The county government is encouraging enrolment of pupils across all ethnic communities within the region and promoting cohesion and peace-building in an attempt to curb the insecurity that had been experienced in Baringo North, East Pokot and Marigat sub-counties. The ministry of health carried out deworming at educational institutions for ECD centres. Pupils were also provided with water treatment tablets in schools. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions Baringo County food security prognosis for the next six months is based on the following assumptions: The onset of the March-June long rains is likely to be timely with average to above average amounts and is the main season of the county. Livestock prices are likely to slightly deteriorate through to MarchApril owing to declining forage availability. The livestock body condition especially cattle is likely to deteriorate further Conflicts over rangeland resources are likely to continue along the borders of East Pokot with Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties together with the border along the county with Turkana. 4.2 Food security outcomes for February to April The food security situation is expected to worsen in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The mixed farming and irrigated faming livelihood zones may continue in their present phase (Minimal). As income from livestock production decreases, majority of households in the pastoral-all species and agro-pastoral livelihood zones who rely on livestock are likely to face significant food consumption gaps. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, the projected decline in crop production is likely to compromise food consumption as they rely on the activity for food. Livestock prices are expected to remain below-average since there will be increase of volume of animals in the markets with a relatively poor body condition 4.3 Food security outcomes for May to July The onset of the long rains season is projected to be in MarchApril and will result in regeneration of forage and high recharge of water sources. In the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones the livestock production aspects are likely to improve in terms of body condition and milk production increasing milk availability and consumption and increasing domestic incomes. Nutrition status is likely to improve with most households consuming more than 3 meals in a day. Crude mortality and under five mortality is expected to stabilize. Proportion of households with poor food consumption is expected to reduce with households consuming more food groups. Coping strategy Index will improve with households applying fewer consumption based strategies with less frequency. 5.0 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion The current food security situation is likely to remain stable in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. Food security is expected to deteriorate in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in the next two months. Malnutrition levels are expected to increase in the pastoral, agro pastoral and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones. The pans are drying at fast rate due to siltation and high temperatures. Urgent de-silting before the onset of the long rains so that the pans dams can harvest sufficient water to be used during dry periods. There is urgent need for provision of water in schools and dispensaries mainly in the pastoral areas to improve retention. Currently water trucking is being undertaken in schools in the pastoral livelihood zones in Tiaty. Support to provision of more boarding facilities in the Pastoral zone is crucial as pastoralists continue to migrate with their children in search of pasture. Recommended Non-food interventions need to be implemented with immediate effect to cushion households from extreme effects of drought. Most affected parts is in pastoral livelihood zone in Tiaty. Provision of farm inputs in Agro-Pastoral, irrigated and mixed farming in preparation for the long rains. 5.1.1 Phase classification The county is classified in the Stressed phase (IPC phase 2). Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones have remained in the Minimal Phase, while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone has remained in the Stressed phase. Pastoral livelihood zone has deteriorated from Stressed to Crisis Food Insecurity Phase. 5.1.2 Summary of findings The main food insecurity drivers in the County this season include, the fall army worm infestation, insecurity and high food commodity prices. Most parts of the county received 125- 200 percent of the normal rainfall particularly for the mixed farming livelihood zones characterized by even temporal distribution and an early cessation. Insecurity due to conflicts over pasture is on an increasing trend. Forage condition is deteriorating in the agro pastoral and all pastoral livelihoods zones livestock resulting in migration within the county hence reducing livestock production. Above-average food commodity prices were reported amid lower-than- normal livestock prices reducing pastoralists terms of trade. Crop production also performed below-optimal which further increased households vulnerability in the agro-pastoral, mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The lower-than-average performance was occasioned by the fall army worm infestation and the off season rains just before the onset of the short rains. Except for the pastoral livelihood zone in Tiaty which reported poor Food Consumption score. All the other sub counties had acceptable diet compared with a similar time last year pointing to increased dietary diversity, food intake, food frequency and nutritive value. A deterioration in the nutritional status of children aged below five years has been recorded in the agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. This could largely be attributed to the poor child care practices and reduced milk availability in the households. Key factors to monitor include the current food insecurity drivers such as the fall army worm infestation, food commodity prices, rangeland conditions, conflicts along migratory routes and the nutritional status of children aged below five years. 5.1.3 Sub-county ranking Table 19: Sub-county ranking Sub-county Food Main food security threat (if any) security rank (1- Very Good (9-10) Good (7-8) Fair (5-6) Poor (3-4) Very Poor (2) East Pokot 3 Depletion of pasture, fair to poor browse condition, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, resource based conflict, Harsh climatical conditions, High malnutrition rate Mogotio 4 Poor pasture condition, Human wild life conflict, livestock disease, High temperatures, fall army warm infestation, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources, poor water quality Baringo 5 Fair -Poor pasture condition, resource based conflict, High temperatures, fall North army warm infestation, increased distances to domestic and livestock water sources Baringo 6 Deteriorating pastures, resource based Conflict, fall army warm, South increased water distances, poor water quality Marigat 4 Insecurity, poor rainfall performance, livestock diseases, fall army worm infestation, high malnutrition rates, high food commodity prices Baringo 7 Deteriorating of pasture, fall army worm, increasing distances to water sources. Eldama 7 Infestation of fall army worm, reducing water levels. Ravine 5.2 On-going Interventions 5.2.1 Non-food interventions Table 20: Ongoing interventions Intervention Objective Location Activity Cost No. of Time Proposed Target benefi Frame Implementer ciaries s Immediate Interventions Creation of Increased food Mogotio, Capacity 2.3 M 5,000 2015- National productive assets production at Baringo North, building of 2019 Government household level, staff on and County by households Baringo South, reduced poverty FAW Government levels and control of Baringo, conserved Development environment in partners ASAL areas Supply of Create resilience Barwessa, Capacity 100 M 5,000 2015- National inputs(Maize , to communities Bartabwa building on 2019 Government Beans, green affected by seed seed and County grams, fertilizer drought and types variety Government Chicks, Pasture insecurity of Baringo On farm- Increased farm Mogotio, Increase 200 2017- Baringo irrigation productivity and Lembus acreage 2018 County systems -support increased food Perkerra under 0.8M Government- for newly security irrigation Agriculture established irrigation Promote schemes(purchas appropriate e of seeds water ,fertilizers and harvesting chemicals to technologies support farmer groups in schemes) Soil Fertility Increased farm Mogotio, Collect soil 0.5 M 400 2017- Baringo management productivity and Baringo North, samples and 2018 County increased food Baringo South, conduct Government- security Tiaty analysis Agriculture Nutrition and Increased Mogotio, Capacity 2 M 3,000 2017- Baringo Food Utilization household food Baringo North, building 2018 County nutrition Baringo South, LMIS and Government- Tiaty Agriculture Maternal Eldama Ravine Infant and Young Child Baringo Nutrition Livestock Sector Disease Reduced Mogotio, Routine 20M 15,521 Dec-feb MOALF, control(vaccinati incidences of Baringo North vaccination cattle 2018 ons against livestock BCG FMD, CCPP, diseases leading Participator 58,077 LSD,SGP, to improved y disease shoats PPR livestock body Surveillance condition Feeds provision; Increase chances Baringo south, Procurement 20M 20,000 Dec,201 MOALF, Hay and Range of livestock Baringo north, and Livest 7-Feb, BCG cubes survival during Tiaty purchase of ock(T 2018 NDMA drought period feeds LUs) Disease Ensure proper Mogotio, Routine 50,000 100,00 From BCG(MOAL surveillance monitoring of Baringo North, disease 0 Dec F) disease Baringo South, monitoring TLUs 2017- incidences for Tiaty March proper control 2018 Medium and Long Term ongoing interventions Provision of BaringoNorth Procurement Mar MOALF(BL pasture seeds of 2018- RP) 10M -Tiaty appropriate June BCG pasture 2018 RPLRP seeds NDMA(EU) South Capacity Partners pasture production management Vitamin A Improved child Mogotio, Undertake 0.38M 94789 MOH, WVK Supplementation immunity Baringo North, vaccination Baringo South, Zinc Reduce severity Mogotio, IMCI 0.24 17264 Health Supplementation of Diarrhoea Baringo North, Integrated Services Baringo South, management Tiaty of childhood illnesses Management of Safe life Mogotio, EBF 24M 7362 MOH, Acute Baringo North, promotion , WVKUNICE Malnutrition And prevent Baringo South, F and WPP (IMAM) under nutrition Tiaty BFCI Community initiatives Iron Folate Reduced child Mogotio, Build KSH 26596 MOH, WVK Supplementation morbidity and Baringo North, capacity for 0.54 among Pregnant mortality Baringo South, health care Women Tiaty workers and Deworming Increase food Mogotio, Routine and KSH 94789 MOH, WVK intake and Baringo North, School 0.45 utilization Baringo South, based Tiaty deworming East Pokot Sub SMART Targerting Ksh1,2 East County Survey to increase 29,550 Pokot coverage Water Sector Water trucking Reduced Institutions Targeting to 1.5M 28 On BCG, NG, distances in Tiaty, Baringo increase Institut going RCS, WV, accessing water. North, Baringo coverage ions UNCEF, South, NDMA Borehole Increase in Tiaty, Baringo Procurement 12M 200HH On BCG, NG, rehabilitation access to safe North, Baringo of spare going RCS, WV, water South, parts UNCEF, Mogotio Routine NDMA maintenance Capacity Increased Tiaty, Baringo Trainings on 0.5M 2 Sub On RCS, WV, building on knowledge on North, Baringo water countie going UNCEF water safe water. South, management s management Mogotio Medium and long term ongoing interventions Construction of Reduced All sub- Tendering 46M 1560 1year BCG, NG, new water distances in counties and HH RCS, WV, projects accessing water. procurement UNCEF, Rehabilitation, Increase in All sub- Siting, 51M 4940 1year BCG, NG, drilling and access to safe counties Procurment, HH RCS, WV, equipping of water and UNCEF, boreholes installation NDMA Capacity Increased All sub- Conduct 4.5M 2130 1year BCG, NG, building on knowledge on counties water HH RCS, WV, water safe water. resouse UNCEF, management and management NDMA protection Planting of trees 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Table 21: Recommended interventions Sub-County 2009 Projected 2017 Pop in need Proposed mode Population Population ( range min max ) of intervention East Pokot 133,189 168709 15-20 (Tiaty) Baringo North 93,789 118797 10-15 CFA Mogotio 48,129 60962 10-15 CFA Baringo South 84,256 106722 10-15 CFA Baringo Central 78,095 98918 1-5 CFA Koibatek 118,113 149594 1-5 CFA 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Table 22: Recommended non-food interventions Livestock All sub- Emergency Baringo North 1,500HH BCG(MOALF),Nat. 30M 0 Feb-April, counties Livestock off- -Tiaty Govt.(KMC) 2018 South NDMA All sub- Disease Mogotio, Countywid BCG, National 3.7M 2M Feb-Mar, counties control(vaccin Marigat(Blue e government and 2018 ations against tongue) Development FMD,LSD partners Blue Tongue) areas(FMD) All sub- Provision of BaringoNorth MOALF(BLRP) Mar-June counties pasture seeds -Tiaty BCG 2018 -Baringo - RPLRP South NDMA(EU) Mogotio Partners 10M All Sub Inputs Eldama 10000 MOALF, BCG, 60M Staff 2018-2019 Counties provision Ravine WFP, PPSD, including BLRSP, capacity post-harvest and safe use of Education Sector Immediate interventions Tiaty Feeding of All wards 10,059 BCG,UNICEF, 10.6M 2018-2019 ECDE KRCS,WFP children Marigat Supply of Marigat ward 5883 BCG,GOK, 17M 2018-2019 smp 446 and lower schools parts of NGOS,Partners, Mochongoi Provosion of Mukutani,Ma 3800 Unicef 0.3 2018-2019 safe guard rigat water ,ilchamus purifyers wards Feeding of All wards in 1701 BCG,PARTNERS,P 3M 2018-2019 ECD children Marigat sub- ARENTS county Baringo Establishment Tenges,Salaw 19,666 GOK,BCG,WVK, 6M 2018-2019 Central of community a and BOM, Smp in 94 schools Sacho wards parents ECD All ECD 5083 U N I C E F , B O M ,Pare 6M 2018-2020 centres Centres in the nts to access sub-county meals Improve of Kabarnet 80 BOM,BCG,GOK 0.8M On going IGAILA in ward and Partners Kabarnet Deaf Blind schools All Sub Rapid Baringo 94,000 MOHNDMAWV 0.9M 300,00 Feb 2018 counties Assessment County KKRCUNICEF 0 All Sub Intensify 150 Health 94,000 MOHWV and 0.846M 200,00 February counties Mass facilities in WFPKRCUNICEF 0 2018 screening and the Count all referrals the 6 sub- counties All Sub Provision of 150 facilities MOHWVKKRC Ksh 100,00 February counties Nutrition in the County WFP 0 2018 supplements 7,362 100M All Sub Integrated 45 hot spots 96,850 MOH WVK KSH 267,60 FebruaryM counties outreach and hard to KRCUNICEF 1,873,250 0 arch services reach sites in 6 sub counties 2018 All Sub SMART County wide 654,000 MOH WVK 5M 340,00 June 2018 counties Survey KRCUNICEF 0 All Sub Provision of County wide MOH WVK 5M 0.25M March 2018 counties water KRCUNICEF treatment All Sub Scale up County wide MOH WVK 6M 1M March counties IMAM KRCUNICEF All Sub Scale up County wide MOH WVK 2.5M 200,00 April 2018 counties IMAM Surge KRCUNICEF 0 All Sub Initiate Infant County wide MOH KRC 2M 750,00 March counties and young UNICEF 0 child feeding 2018 in emergency East Pokot BSFP East Pokot WFPWVK MOH 123,130,00 0 March 0 2018 All Sub Fuel Subsidy Community 2500HH BCG, NG, RCS, 3M 1M 1- 3 months counties Electricity WS WV, UNCEF, subsidy NDMA All Sub Rehabilitation Community 1850HH BCG, NG, RCS, 5M 1M 1- 3 months counties Servicing of WS WV, UNCEF, pumping units NDMA All Sub Roof Water Institutions 60 Inst. BCG, NG, RCS, 7M 2M 1- 3 months counties harvesting Communities WV, UNCEF, structures NDMA All Sub Water County wide 1850HH BCG, NG, RCS, 3M 0.5M 1- 3 months counties Bowzer WV, UNCEF, servicing and NDMA repairs including Motor vehicle tyres provision All Sub Capacity County wide 2500HH BCG, NG, RCS, 2M 0.5M 1- 3 months WASH NDMA Management protection Medium and Long Term Interventions All Sub Drilling and County wide ( 1800HH BCG, NG, RCS, 20M 4M 1 - 5 yrs counties Equipping of 7 Boreholes WV, UNCEF, strategic BHs NDMA All Sub Construction County wide 2000HH BCG, NG, RCS, 10M 2M 1 5 yrs counties and WV, UNCEF, Rehabilitation NDMA, CIM, WFP of potential water supplies All Sub Construction County wide 5,000HH BCG, NG, RCS, 70M 5M 1 -5Yrs counties of 4 dams for WV, UNCEF, domestic and NDMA water use All Sub De-silting and County wide 2000HH BCG, NG, RCS, 50M 2M 1 - 5Yrs counties Construction WV, UNCEF, of major NDMA water pans All Sub Capacity County wide 2000HH BCG, NG, RCS, 5MStaff 0.5M 1 - 5Yrs Wash NDMA, CIM, WFP",
            "Baringo_County_SRA_2018.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2018 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT County Steering Group February, 2019 Esther Barasa (National Drought Management Authority) and Baringo County Steering Group 1.1. County Background .............................................................................................. 1 1.2. Methodology and Approach ................................................................................. 1 2.1. Rainfall Performance ............................................................................................ 1 2.2. InsecurityConflict ................................................................................................ 2 Other Shocks and Hazards ............................................................................................. 2 3.1. Availability ............................................................................................................ 2 3.2. Access .................................................................................................................... 7 3.3. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ............................................................ 13 4.1. Education............................................................................................................. 14 5.1. Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 15 5.1. Food Security Outlook for March to May 2019 ................................................. 15 6.1. Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 16 6.2: Ongoing Interventions ........................................................................................... 17 6.3:Recommended Interventions .................................................................................. 21 6.3.1: Recommended food intervention ........................................................................ 21 Table: 17: Recommended non-food Interventions ....................................................... 21 Food security assessments are carried out twice a year by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and technical government departments of the County Steering Group (CSG) in conjunction with partner organisations. The 2018 short rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted from 11th-22nd February 2019. The overall objective of this assessment was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of short rains. The assessment was also to take into consideration the cumulative effects of previous seasons, and provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The onset of the short rains was early in the second dekad of October compared to third dekad normally. There was uneven spatial and poor temporal distribution. The caseation was earlier than normal; the poor performance of the rains led to decrease in the acreage for both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. It also led to increase in trekking distances to water sources. Forage was good to fair in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping, fair to poor in the agro- pastoral and poor in pastoral livelihood Zones. Livestock body condition was good to fair in the county. Milk production at household level was below the Long Term Mean across all livelihoods this was attributed to increasing distances in search of water and pasture. Milk consumption was stable in the county with exception of Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood zones which had low milk consumption due to low production and high prices. Livestock prices were above the long term average while food commodity prices are below the long term average especially cereals. Terms of trade are favourable at 80 percent above the long term average. The current maize stocks are 18 percent above the long term average. Proportion of households in acceptable Food Consumption category was 80 percent. This was attributed to availability of food at household level and markets. Reduced coping strategy index was at 13.5 a decrease as compared to the same period the previous year at 15.74. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone were employing consumption based coping strategies more frequently compared to other livelihood zones. The proportion of children below five years who were at risk of malnutrition was within the normal range. The indicative food security phase classification for the county is Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The County covers an approximate area of 11,015 Mixed Farming square kilometres (Km) with an estimated population of 703,697 persons (Kenya 43 Pastoral National Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Projected Population). Agro Pastoral Administratively, the county is divided into six (6) sub Irrigated Cropping Counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Eldama Figure 1: Proportion of the Population by Livelihood Zones Ravine, and Baringo South. The County has four main livelihoods namely, Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and four percent respectively as shown in Figure 1. 1.2. Methodology and Approach A technical multi-sectoral and multi-agency working group comprised of government technical experts from water, livestock, agriculture, Health and nutrition and education sectors in county, NDMA and partners was formed by the CSG to analyse the food security situation for evidence-based decision support. The team, led by KFSSG, reviewed existing secondary data (including sectoral reports, NDMA bulletins, Knowledge Attitudes Believes and Practices survey reports), to establish the current food security situation and determine the trends. The team then conducted transect drives across the livelihood zones to assess the field situation through visual inspection techniques, interviewed Key informants and conducted household interviews. The qualitative data explained the changes in household food security during the season. The technical team analysed the available evidence in a transparent and consensus-building manner, and presented a preliminary report which was discussed and adopted by the CSG during a special meeting held on 22nd February 2019. 2. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance The onset of the 2018 October to December was early in the second dekad of October compared to third dekad normally.. However, progression of rains throughout the season was poor in all livelihood zones. Substantial rainfall amounts were only received during the second dekad of October and Figure 2: Rainfall performance first dekad of December. Spatial distribution was equally uneven. Cumulative seasonal totals were 90-140 percent of normal in the northern pastoral areas of Tiaty, Baringo South and pockets in Baringo North. The rest of the county received 51-90 percent of average rainfall. Rainfall cessation was late in the third of December compared to first dekad normally 2.2. InsecurityConflict Incidences of insecurity were reported in Arabal in Baringo South that resulted in loss of lives. The situation led to burning of a grazing zone in the area. There is a high tendency of collapse of markets along borders of Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South as well as displacement of persons especially in Mukutani ward. Tensions have been reported along the borders of Saimo soi and Bartabwa in Baringo North thereby leading to limited access to forage in those areas. Other Shocks and Hazards Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones of Mochongoi in Baringo South sub-county. However, the Baringo County government is carrying out vaccinations campaigns currently. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Rain-fed crop production is mainly done during the March to May long rains and contributes 85 percent to food. Crop production during the October to December sort rains contributes 15 percent to food. The main food crops grown in the County include maize, beans, millet, Irish potatoes, cow peas and sorghum. Other crops are grown are coffee, cotton and pyrethrum. Crop production is mainly practised in the agro-pastoral, Irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihoods. Food crop production contributes four percent to cash income in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and five percent in both the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones. Maize crop contributes 63 and 21 percent to food in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. Maize is grown for commercial purposes in the irrigated zones contributing 26 percent to cash incomes. Rain-fed crop production The acreage under maize and bean crop production was 90 and 85 percent below the five- year average. Farmers were advised by the Ministry of Agriculture to observe a closed season during the short rains to break the Fall Armyworm lifecycle. In addition, the delayed cessation of the 2018 March to May long rains affected the harvesting of the long rains crop and land preparation for the short rains season. As a result, maize and bean production dropped by 93 and 86 percent of the long term average (LTA). The area under Irish potatoes was eight percent above the LTA especially in Mochongoi and Eldama Ravine. However, production was 23 percent below the LTA due to the poor performance of the short rains. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2018 Short rains Long Term during 2018 Average (5 year) season production Average (5 year) Short rains area planted (90 kg bags) Tons production during season during the Short the short rains (Ha) rains season (Ha) season (90 kg bags)Tons Maize 36 361 630 9,150 Beans 145 942 1,992 14,421 Irish Potatoes 1,308 1,212 13,080 16,932 Irrigated crop production The main crops under irrigated agriculture were maize, watermelons and tomatoes. Irrigation of high value crops is managed by men for commercial purposes while the women and children provide the labour on the farms. There was an increase in area under seed maize by 16 percent compared to the short term average (STA). The production of maize was below STA because most of the crop was affected by lack of adequate water especially during tussling. By comparison there was a decline in the area put under tomatoes and watermelons by 39 and 41 percent of the STA respectively. The high temperatures and high evaporation rates negatively affected the water quantities available for irrigation. Table 2: Irrigated crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2018 Short rains Long Term Average during 2018 Average area season production during Short rains planted during production (90 the Short rains season (Ha) the Short rains kg bags) season (90 kg bags) season (Ha) ProjectedActual Maize 30 25 1200 1250 Tomatoes 20 33 360 2575 Water melons 61 85 1161 1580 3.1.2. Cereals Stock The maize stocks held by farmers and millers were 24 and 29 percent of the LTA while traders held stocks 22 percent below LTA. Maize stocks held by farmers include spill over stocks from the above average 2018 long rains harvests. In spite of the county having above average maize stocks, majority of the stocks are held by commercial farmers in Eldama Ravine. The rice stocks held by traders were below the LTA by 33 percent. Current millet stocks held by the farmers and Traders were above the LTA by 874 and 486 percent respectively. Generally the County had maize stocks above the long term average and this was attributed to favourable long rains, poor maize prices thus farmers did not sell their produce and minimal carry-over stocks from the 2018 long rains. The Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones have nil to minimum stocks and are depending on markets for their supplies. Traders are having below their long time average as most of them have maize stocks which are not moving as households have maize and they are not selling especially in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. Farmers are mostly likely to dispose of their stocks in order to purchase inputs for the long rains, so the stocks will decline drastically in the next three months. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the other harvest, but this depends on market prices where farmers can sell their produce within two months. Table 3: Commodity Stocks Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Millet Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 736,130 593,945 300 1,463 524 24,780 2,544 Traders 80,344 102,373 1,640 2,465 475 644 3,108 530 Millers 26,432 20,444 - - 12 120 75 200 3.1.3. Livestock Production Livestock production contributes 88 and 50 percent to cash income in the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. The main livestock species reared are cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. The county government has also been promoting rabbit farming. Livestock is usually grazed by male youth and women. In other cases, livestock are released to the fields and later return to the homesteads themselves in the afternoon. The short rains are important in pasture and browse regeneration after the long lean season of July to September. Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture and browse condition was good to fair in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones which is normal at this time. However, they were fair to poor in the agro- pastoral livelihood compared to good to fair normally. Pastures in the pastoral livelihood were poor compared to good to fair conditions normally. Pastures are expected to last for 1-2 months in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods compared to three months normally. Access to pastures in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones has been limited by insecurity especially in Chemoe, Natan and Arabal. Approximately 50 hectares of pasture were burnt during the recent skirmishes which was grazing zone for livestock from pastoral and agro pastoral Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Liveliho Pasture Browse od Zone Condition Projected Duration Factors Condition Projected Duration Factors to last (Months) limiting to last (month) limiting access access Mixed Good to Good 2 3 None Good Good 3 4 None farming fair Irrigated Good to Good 2 3 None Good Good 3 4 None cropping fair Agro- Fair to Good to 1.5 2.5 None Fair Good to 2 3 None pastoral poor fair fair Pastoral Poor Good to 1.5 2.5 Insecuri Fair Good to 2 3 Insecurit fair ty fair y tensions tensions Livestock Body Condition The livestock body conditions were stable in the Mixed Farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones but were good to fair in the Agro pastoral livelihood zone. The body conditions were normal for this time of the year. Livestock body conditions in the pastoral livelihood have deteriorated to fair to poor conditions, compared to good conditions normally, due to declines in pastures and limited access due to insecurity. Table 5: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood Zone Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Mixed farming Good Good Good Good Good Good NA NA Irrigated cropping Good Good Good Good Good Good Agro-pastoral Good to Good Good to Good Good Good Good Good fair fair Pastoral Fair to Good Good to Good Good Good Good Good Poor fair Tropical Livestock Units -TLUs The average tropical livestock unit is 3 for the poor income household and 4.9 for the medium income households. There were variations reported across various livelihood zones with pastoral livelihood zone having higher TLUs compared to other livelihood zones for both the two income groups as shown in table 8 above. Comparatively, the current TLUs are within the normal seasonal ranges. This is attributed to good conception during long and off- season rainfalls. Table 6: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming 2.8 3 3.5 4 Irrigated cropping 2.6 3.5 4.2 5 Agro-pastoral 3 5 5 6 Pastoral 4.4 7 6.9 7 Birth Rates Birth rates were average in all livelihood zones following average conception rates during the above average March to May long rains. The deviations in birth rates across livelihoods were as a result of levels of forage and livestock body condition per livelihood zone. With the highest birth rates being in mixed farming and irrigated cropping and lowest in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Milk Production and Consumption Milk production was below the long-term average in all livelihood zones following a decline in pasture and water resources. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping zones, milk production declined to five litres per household per day compared to eight litres normally. Milk production decreased to one and two bottles in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods compared to two and four litres normally. Milk consumption has decreased mainly due to a reduction in production. Average consumption was one to two litres per household per day compared to 2 litres across in all livelihood zones. Reduced milk availability led to an increase in prices in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Prices in these areas ranged between Kshs. 75-90 per litre compared to Kshs 60 normally. Livelihood zone Milk Production Milk Consumption Prices (Ksh)Litre (Litres)Household (Litres)Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed farming 5 8 1-2 2 50-60 50 Irrigated cropping 5 8 1-2 2 50-60 50 Agro-pastoral 2 4 1-2 1.8 75 60 Pastoral 1 2 1 1.8 90 60 Table 7: Milk Production and Consumption Water Availability and Access The critical water sources for livestock include boreholes, water pans, rivers, streams, springs and lakes (Bogoria, Baringo and Kamnarok) similar to normal times. The recharge of open water sources was 30-40 percent during the October to December short rains. Continued use and high evaporation rates due to above average diurnal temperatures significantly reduced quantities of water held in these sources. As a result, livestock trekking distances to watering points from grazing areas has increased by 85 percent in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Similarly, livestock watering frequency in these livelihood zones has decreased from once daily to four times a week. Table 8: Water availability and Access Livelihoo Sources Return trekking Expected duration Watering frequency d zone distance(Km) (No of days per week) Mixed Streams, Streams 1-4 1-1.5 Permanent Permanent 7 7 farming Rivers, Rivers, springs, springs, piped water, piped water, Irrigated Rivers, Rivers, 1-4 1-1.5 Permanent Permanent 7 7 cropping shallow wells shallow wells and springs. and springs Agro- water pans, Streams, 4-13 3-7 2-3 3 months 4 7 pastoral Boreholes, water pans, months rivers Boreholes Pastoral Bore-holes, Water-pans, 4-13 3-7 2-3 2 months 4 7 water pans, Bore-holes months Livestock Migration Depletion of pastures in the wet season grazing areas have led to migration of livestock, mainly cattle, to dry season grazing areas. Cattle from Saimoi and Soi in Baringo North, and from Tiaty have migrated to Silale, Paka, Mallaso and Korossi hills. Migration at this time of the year is typical. Migration into neighbouring counties is likely to start, which may led to conflicts especially at Kasarani. Diseases and Mortalities Livestock diseases reported in the county were Contagious Caprine Pleural Pneumonia (CCPP), Peaste des Petits Ruminants (PPR), and Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD). Prevalence of the diseases was within normal levels. Equally, disease related mortalities were within normal ranges. An outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Mochongoi ward was reported in Baringo South. Mass vaccinations and treatment by the veterinary department of the Baringo County government are ongoing currently. The department is also planning to carry out PPR and FMD vaccinations along the stock routes. 3.2. Access 3.2.1. Markets Operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. The main livestock sold in the markets included cattle, goats and sheep. Food commodity markets in the county are Kabarnet, Tenges, Mogotio, Emining, Marigat, Barwessa, Eldama Ravine, Kollowa, Churo and Nginyang. The main food commodities included maize, posho, cassava, bananas, rice, beans, kales, cabbages and potatoes. Market operations were normal for most markets across the county. The main food commodity supplies come from within the county and also across the county borders from: Elgeyo Marakwet, Nakuru and Uasin Gishu counties. There were high volumes of food commodities traded in the county as traders held above their long term average stocks especially cereals. However, demand was currently low especially for food commodities as only 35 percent of the households were sourcing food from the local markets. Supply for livestock was low as most farmers were reluctant to sell their livestock; this led to better livestock prices. 3.2.2. Market Prices Maize Price Currently a kilogram of maize was below the long term average and long rains by 22 and 14 percent respectively. the prices are 31 percent lower as compared to a similar period in 2018.The low prices were attributed to cheap prices of the commodity from the neighbouring counties. Highest prices were recorded in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 45 per kilogram while irrigated livelihood zones recorded the lowest price of Ksh. 30 per kilogram. The low prices recorded in the irrigated Figure 2: Trends in maize prices livelihood zone were mainly attributed to the stocks at household levels and localM tariazed Perrisc.e sT he trend of maize price has been stable since September 2018 as shown in figure 3. In the Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones most farmers are purchasing from traders Goat Prices The price medium sized goat decreased Average (2014-2018) 2017 2018 2019 by six percent in comparison to 2018 3500 Long Rains. The current price is above 3000 the long term mean by 12 percent. The t prices were highest in irrigated cropping ).h2000 livelihood Zone at Ksh. 2,900 and lowest sK in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at ecirP1500 Ksh.2, 400. The trend is attributed to 1000 good market dynamics and improvement of body condition due to availability of browse. The prices are likely to decline Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec if the dry period continues. Figure 4: Trends in goat prices 3.2.3. Terms of Trade The terms of trade wee above the long term mean by The terms of trade reduced from 79 during the month of December to 78 in January. The current TOT is above the long-term average by 80 percent. The favourable terms of trade were due to better livestock prices and low food prices. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest at 105.5 while pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 69.5. The terms are better as compared to a similar period last year. Income Sources Livestock production is the main source Figure 5:Trends in Terms of Trade of cash income in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones; contributing 88 and 50 percent of cash income respectively. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones, cash crop production contributes the highest income proportion at 30 and 59 percent respectively. Other sources of income are food crop production, fishing, casual waged labour and small businesses with varied contributions to cash income as shown as shown in table 9 below. Table 9: Main Sources of Incomes Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral-all Agro-pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated species Cropping Livestock Production 88 50 23 5 Food Crop 4 5 5 Cash Crop 3 30 59 Fishing 10 4 Casual Waged 1 15 20 10 Labour Small Business 1 4 7 5 3.2.4. Water Access and Availability Major Water Sources The main sources of water for domestic use were Traditional River Wells, rivers, pans and dams, lakes, boreholes springs and Shallow wells across all livelihoods. The recharge of the majority of surface water sources was 30-50 percent in all livelihood zones due to the below average short rains. Currently open surface water sources are about 20 30 percent of normal capacity due to poor recharge during the short rains. Although majority of boreholes are functioning optimally, Kolloa, Churo, tangulbei, Yatya, Kipsaraman, Mogotio, salawa, maji moto and kisanana boreholes have broken Figure 3: Water Sources down due to electromechanical break downs and poor management. The status of water levels in small dams and boreholes in mixed farming livelihood zones is stable while shallow wells, springs and rivers is poor in pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. 70 80 percent water pans in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones have dried up due to high temperatures. Generally the available surface water sources across all livelihood Zones is expected to last between one to one and half months except for Bore holes areas experiencing discharges as result of over- exploitation of water and is expected to last over 6 months Table 10: Main Sources of Water Ward Water No. of No. of Projected Normal of full Locality of Non- Livelih Source Normal Current Duration Duration Capacity operational Water ood (Three (3) Operatio Operati (Operationa that Recharged Sources zone major nal onal l Sources) water last by the sources) Sources in months Rains Pastora 1. Bore 6 4 Over 3 Over 6 stable Kolloa, Churo, tangulbei l Holes Months months 2.Water 7 3 1 1.5 3 4 15 - 25 Nginyang, Chesirimion, Pans Months Silale , Loyamarok, Tuwo 3.Lake 1 1 Stable stable Agro - 1. Bore 5 5 Over 3 Over 6 stable Yatya, Kipsaraman Pastora Holes Months months l 2. Water 8 3 1 1.5 3 4 15 - 25 Pans Months 3. Springs Mixed 1. Bore 8 8 Over 3 Over 6 stable Mogotio, salawa, maji Farmin Holes Months months moto, kisanana g 2. Springs 3.Rivers 3 3 1 1.5 3 4 10 - 20 Months Irrigate 1. Rivers 1 1 1 1.5 Over 6 10 - 20 d months months Croppi 2.Shallow 7 4 1 2 months Over 6 Reducing ng Wells months Discharge Distance to Water Sources The distances to water sources have increased by 125,100 55,67 and 40 percent in the Agro- pastoral, Pastoral, Mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively as compared to normal distances. The average distances to domestic water sources were above normal at 7-9 kilometres in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal of 3-4 kilometres while the distances were above normal at an average of 1 3 kilometres in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The increase was a result of to the prevailing high temperatures and poor performance of the short rains. Cost of Water, Consumption and Waiting time at the Source The cost of water at the source was generally normal across all livelihood zones and has remained stable compared to the same period last year. A 20 litre jerry can retailed at Ksh 3-5 across all livelihood zones whereas vendors sold the 20 litre jerry can at between Ksh. 15-20 which also depended on the distances covered. Water consumption per person per day is below normal at 1520 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones and 12-15 litres per person per day in agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The waiting time at the source ranged between 5-10 minutes in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in the mixed farming and irrigated zones the waiting time was on average 3 - 5minutes. However, there were extremes of waiting time at Logumgum, Naudo, Riongo, Loyeya, Kadogoi, Chepturu, chemoinoi, bekibon for over 2 hours. Table 1: Distances to Water Sources, Cost and Consumption Livelihood Distance to water for Cost of water Waiting time at Average HH use Projecte zone domestic use (Kms) (KES) water source (litrespersonday) d (minutes) duration of water Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current in (months Pastoral 4 - 5 8 10 2 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 20 12 - 15 1-1 .5 Agro-pastoral 3 - 4 6 9 2 5 3 - 5 3 - 5- 10 15 20 12- 15 1-1.5 Mixed 0.5 2.5 1.5 2 5 3 5 2 4 5 - 7 20 25 15 - 20 2 - 3 Farming 3.5 Irrigated 0.5 - 1.5 0.8 2.2 2 5 3 - 5 1 - 3 1 - 3 20 25 20 - 25 2-3 Cropping 3.2.5. Food Consumption There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in January 2019 compared to the same season last Figure 4. Food Consumption Score year as shown in the figure above. According to the drought early warning bulletin, there was no significant change in food consumption gaps across livelihoods. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 25 percent and 3.3 percent in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. A proportion of 3 percent 17 percent and 80 percent of the households across the livelihoods have borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Currently more households across the livelihoods are consuming at least a staple and vegetable on a daily basis complemented by a frequent consumption of oil and pulses due to relative market stability, milk availability and availability of traditional green vegetables. 3.2.6. Coping Strategy The reduced coping strategy index was at 13.5 a decrease as compared to the same period the Figure 8 : Coping strategy Index previous year at 15.74. This implies that the frequency with which households are employing coping strategies has decreased. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18.8 followed by Pastoral at 14.8. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.6. Households in Agro Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones employed coping strategies such as reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat, reduced the portion size of meals; reduced number of meals per day; friends or relatives; and relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Among the three most common diseases, among under-fives were Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), Diarrhoea and malaria, as shown in the figure 8. The cases reported in January 2019 were less compared to a similar period the previous year. Upper Respiratory Tract Infections cases were highest at 3008 while malaria cases were least at 156. There has been a declining trend in 2018 as compared to 2017. But there was an increase in diarrhoeal cases among children under the age of five. Figure 5. Morbidity Mortality Patterns Morbidity Trends for the General Population Highest numbers of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) were reported in Baringo North Sub County in January 2019 as compared to other sub counties. Malaria cases were highest in Baringo south. Generally there is an increase of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) and malaria cases and a decline in diarrhoeal cases in 2018 as compared to the same period in 2017 Figure 6. Morbidity Trends for the General Population 3.3.2. Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Immunization coverage increased from 53 to 78 between July and December 2018 but remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for Fully Immunized Child was due to an increase in integrated outreaches and an increment of the cold-chain equipment. The implementation of outreaches and result based financing program, including support from Anya Uzi and other partners, also contributed to the improved immunisation coverage. Vitamin A supplementation of children between 12-59 months increased from 67.6 percent to 77.7 percent between July and December 2018 but remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in Vitamin A coverage resulted from Malezi Bora activities in ECDE centres, community health units and baby friendly community initiatives (BFCI) 3.3.3. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity According to January 2019 sentinel data from NDMA, 13 percent of children under the age of five years were at risk of malnutrition (MUAC135mm). The proportion of those at risk was 19 percent below the five-year average and five percent below 2018. Dietary diversity for children is between four to five food groups across all livelihood zones mainly starch, vegetables, dairy and dairy products and meat. In the mixed farming livelihood zones, the meal frequency for children under five years is four while adults have three meals a day which is normal. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones children less than five years have a frequency of two to three meals while for adults is one meals a day as compared to four and three meals normally. 3.3.4. Sanitation and Hygiene According to county ministry of health and sanitation; the county current total latrine coverage July to December 2018 was about 44 percent East Pokot being lowest with 3.2. Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock wade directly into open water sources. Most water sources dont have a separate watering point for livestock and humans. About 30 40 percent of households in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistent water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhoea and malaria. There was a low water treatment practice in the county where drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. Only about 10-30 percent of households reported to have treated water in the mixed farming livelihood zones either by boiling or use of chemicals. During current transect drive, In pastoral set up, not all schools have latrines an example is Tuo with a population of 89 pupils.in most communities, 90 of household have no access to toilets facilities. Hand washing is done in 2 critical times (Before and after eating as opposed to the recommended 4 critical times) agro pastoral and mixed set up, 70 households have and use latrines and Hand washing at three critical time 3.3. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 11: Food Security Trends in Baringo County of maize stocks 150 118 held by households Livestock body Mixed Farming Good condition Good for all livestock species Irrigated Cropping- Good across all livelihood zones Ago Pastoral Good to Fair Pastoral Fair to Poor Water consumption Agro-pastoral: 20-25pd Agro-pastoral: 12-15pd (litres per person per Pastoral: 20-25pd Pastoral: 12-55pd Mixed Farming: 25-30 Mixed Farming: 15-20pd Irrigated: 25-30 Irrigated: 20-25pd Price of maize (per 42 36 Distance to grazing Mixed farming: 1 Mixed farming:1 -4 (km) Irrigated: 1-3 Irrigated: 1-4 Agro-pastoral: 3-4 Agro-pastoral: 4-13 Pastoral: 5-6 Pastoral: 4-13 Enrolment was stable Enrolment was stable in Enrolment was stable in in comparison to the comparison to the previous comparison to the previous previous term. term. term. Coping strategy index Mean: 14.1 Mean: 13.51 Agro-pastoral 18.2 Agro-pastoral 18.8 Pastoral 14.2 Pastoral 14.7 Irrigated: 3.2 Irrigated: 2.6 Food consumption Poor: 1.1 Poor: 3 score Borderline: 8.0 Borderline: 17 Acceptable: 90.8 Acceptable:80 4. CROSS CUTTING ISSUES 4.1. Education 4.1.1: Access (Enrolment) Early childhood development and education centres (ECDE) enrolment in Term 3 of 2018 was 27,139 boys, 25,498 girls totalling to 52,635. Term I (2019) the enrolment was stable in comparison to the previous term. Within the county (Table 12). The increase was majorly attributed to county government employment of teachers and provision of infrastructure. Primary schools in the county enrolled 78512 boys and 72966 girls which was marginal increase as compared to third term 2018. On average, the increase was prompted by the free primary education policy and none repetition in all classes and availability of food in schools. It was noted in Tiaty that the ratio of enrolment of school going age children was at a low percentage compared to those at home. This was due to retrogressive cultural practices and mode of livelihood. Secondary schools in the county recorded an increase of 10.13 boys and 7.62 girls from last year term 111 enrolment. This enrolment increased in Term I (2019) compared to Term 11I (2018) due to100 government transition policy in all secondary schools, establishment of day secondary schools and KCPE entry marks lowered. Table12: Enrolment Term I11 2018 Term I 2019 Enrolment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECD 27,139 25,498 52,637 27,410 25,546 52,956 Primary 77,328 72,201 149,529 78,512 72,966 151,479 Secondary 21,858 21,041 42,899 24,322 22,776 47,098 4.1.2: Participation (Attendance) There was stability in attendance of pupils in ECD centres due to availability of extended surplus of Regular Meals Program in Tiaty Sub County however this might be hindered by water shortage experienced in most schools. Instability in attendance was reported in Baringo south due to delayed disbursement of school meals program funds from Government of Kenya to primary schools, since the beginning of the term to date. ECDE centres are currently relaying on primary schools for meals because they have not yet received funds for meals from the county government of Baringo. Other factors include long walking distance and severe heat. Primary school attendance is stable but will be interfered by water shortage, leading closure of some schools in Tiaty. Secondary school attendance is stable with exemption of Tiaty due to few and far away schools as well as their retrogressive cultural practices. 4.1.3: Retention (Drop out) There was no significant drop out reported although daily absenteeism was experienced from time to time across all levels. Drop out of girls from both primary and secondary school is normally associated with early pregnancies, household chores and lack of school fees. Boys on the other hand in primary and secondary schools drop out and household do not value education. The main reasons for absenteeism in school for ECD centres was due to long trekking distances and severe heat, primary and secondary schools were lack of food in school (delay of funds to primary schools). 4.1.4: School Meals Programme (SMP) A total of 336 public primary schools with 38,172 boys and 34,660 girls are under the Home- Grown School Meals Program (HGMP) supported by the Government of Kenya (GoK) through the ministry of education. Some 40,340 boys and 38,306 girls are not on any school meals program as they are considered to be in food secure areas. The Ministry of Education had not disbursed the funds to schools by February as it has done in the previous years.AS a result, school attendance is likely to be low from March 2019. Parent Association have an organized meals program in all day secondary schools. Table 13: School Meals Programme Sub-County HGSMP No. of Boys Girls Totals Schools Koibatek - - - Mogotio 67 10,602 10,508 21,110 B North 71 7,030 6,740 13,770 BCentral 34 3,210 3,140 6,350 Marigat 49 6,530 6,390 12,920 Tiaty 115 10,800 7,810 18,610 Total 336 38,172 34,660 72,832 5. FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1. Assumptions According to Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), there is a 40 percent likelihood of average to above average 2019 March to May long rains in the county with a normal onset. There is also a 40 percent likelihood of below average land surface temperatures. According to FEWSNET March to May, 2019 food security outlook, pasture and water sources are expected to atypically to be above normal through with the onset of the long rains. Based on Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET)s integrated price projections, maize prices are expected to remain below the 2018 prices and also the five year average maize prices over the scenario period with expected above normal long rains. 5.1. Food Security Outlook for March to May 2019 The food security situation in the county is expected to improve across all the livelihood zones with the anticipated above normal long rains. Household food consumption score is expected to remain stable with majority of households moving to acceptable food consumption score. Less severe food based coping strategies are likely to be employed by households with a significant reduction in the proportion of households employing stressed food based coping strategies. Nutritional status of children is expected to remain stable given the availability of milk and food at household level No food security related mortalities are expected between March and May2019. Given the on-going interventions, the phase classification is likely to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) with the exception of East Pokot (Tiaty) which will remain in IPC phase 2. 5.2: Food Security Outlook for June to August, 2019 Food security situation over the period June to August, is projected to remain stable. The rangeland and body conditions are expected to be normal following the above norma long rains, food security outcome indicators are expected to improve. Minimal food consumption gaps are likely to be experienced with a good proportion of households moving from borderline food consumption score to acceptable food consumption score due to availability of stocks and increased milk at household level. Households are not expected to employ moderate or insurance food based coping strategies like reducing the number of meals consumed a day or the portion of meal sizes. Nutritional status for children under five years is anticipated to remain stable due increased milk production and consumption. The phase classification for the county is expected to remain at minimal (IPC Phase 1). 6. CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 6.1. Conclusion 6.1.1. Phase Classification The food security phase classification for the county is Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The situation has worsened as compared to the long rains assessment in July where the county was classified at minimal phase (IPC Phase 1). 6.1.2: Summary of Findings The 2018 October to December short rains received were below normal and did not support pasture establishment. . Recharge of water sources especially open sources, water access, livestock productivity, Acreage under rain-fed reduced drastically by 90 percent and that under irrigated for seed maize increased by 16 percent. The available stocks are above the Long Term Average. The Goat prices are above the Long term mean by 12 percent. Terms of trade are currently favourable as 78 kilograms of maize can be purchased from the sale of an average-sized goat which is 80 percent above the long term average. Livestock body condition was good to fair and good in the Pastoral and agro pastoral and Mixed farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones respectively Trekking distances are above normal seasonal ranges in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zones. . Markets operations are normal across all livelihood zones There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in January 2019 compared to the same season last year. 80 percent of households having acceptable food consumption score, 17 percent having borderline and three percent having poor food consumption scores. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 25 percent and 3.3 percent in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. The mean reduced coping strategy index was 13.5 for the county a decrease as compared to similar period last year at 15.7. The proportion of under-five at risk of malnutrition was 13 percent; the proportion is below the long term average of 16 percent 6.1.3: Sub-County Ranking Table 2: Ranking of Sub-County in order of Food insecurity Severity Sub-County Sub-County Ranking Current main food security threats (1Most food insecure, 4Least food insecure) Tiaty 1 Inadequate water Water quality challenges, High risk of malnutrition , Livestock diseases Resource conflicts, Insecurity ,Depleted forage, Baringo South 2 Livestock diseases (FMD), Inadequate water Water quality challenges, insecurity due to in migrations, malnutrition (Kampi Turkana) Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B Baringo North 3 Inadequate water water quality challenges, livestock diseases, boundary Insecurity, depleted forage, Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B Mogotio 4 Inadequate water Water quality challenges, Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B(Maji Moto), Depleted forage Baringo 5 Depleted forage, Inadequate water Water Central quality challenges. Eldama Ravine 6 Depleted pasture, Inadequate water Water quality challenges. 6.2: Ongoing Interventions 6.2.1: Food Interventions Home Grown School Feeding programmes covering 72832 pupils in 336 primary schools as follows 67, 71, 34,49 and 115 schools in Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South Marigat and Tiaty sub counties respectively. 6.2.2: Non-Food Interventions Table 15: on-going Non-food Interventions Creation of Increased All 2.3 M 5,000 2015-2019 National productive food Wards Government assets by productio and County households- n at Government Especially household of Baringo, Farm ponds level, Developmen reduced t partners poverty levels and conserved environm ent in areas Post-Harvest Reduced All 8.5 2000 2018-2020 County Practices(In Post Wards Millio Government puts supply harvest n and losses construction especially of stores in on cereal North and Eldama Ravine Soil Fertility Increased All 0.6 M 400 2017-2019 Baringo management farm Wards County productivi Government ty and - Agriculture increased Nutrition Increased All 0.4 M 3,000 2017-2019 Baringo and Food household Wards County Utilization food Government initiatives nutrition - Agriculture Livestock IMMEDIATE Disease Reduced BCentral 5,700 Sheep control incidence (Blue (Vaccination s of tongue) s and vector livestock 3M Dec-Feb control) diseases BSouth (for all 2,000 2018 to (Blue targete MOALF, increased BCG tongue) d livestock Mogotio areas) -- prices and (CCPPP hence better 5,912 term of BNorth Shoats trade BSouth (SGP) 2,896 Cattle BSouth 30,000 (Vector Shoats Control suppress Disease To All sub 50,000 100,000 Aug 2018- BCG surveillance monitor counties TLUs Feb, 2019 (MOALF) on RVF and disease other incidences diseases for proper interventi MEDIUM AND LONG TERM Capacity Well Baringo 2M Throughou BCG building of Informed North t (MOALF) Farmers(Nor staff and Baringo Partners mal Ext and farmers south Pastoral for best central Field School practices Mogotio Concept) Health and Nutrition Vitamin A To All health Ksh 70,000 Routine MOH Supplementat improve facilities, 1,850,0 households supported by ion the selected 00 UNICEF, Micronutri ECD WVK Zinc To All health Ksh. 32,000 Routine County Supplementat improve facilities 2,000,0 households department of ion the 00 health Micronutri Management To 100 health Ksh. 1,500 Routine County of Acute improvead facilities 20,0000 households department of Malnutrition just the 00 health Surge at 6 (IMAM) Nutrient supported by health status of National facilities the government, in East affected UNICEF, Pokot community WVK and . WFP IYCN To lower All health Ksh. 20,000 Routine County Interventions morbidity facilities 1,000,0 households Department of (EBF and and and 00 Health Timely Intro mortalities communit of hence y units complementa improving ry Foods) food Iron Folate To All health Ksh. 21,000 Routine County Supplementat improve facilities Ksh. households Department of ion among the ANC 2,450,0 Health Pregnant Micronutri 00 supported by Women ent status WVK, of the UNICEF Intensify To detect All health Ksh. 115 ,000 Routine County Nutrition malnutritio facilities 700,000 under-fives department of surveillance. n early and health intervene supported by UNICEF 6.3: Recommended Interventions 6.3.1: Recommended food intervention Table 16: Population in need of Food Assistance SNo. Sub-County Population in need Proposed mode of intervention ( range min max) 1 Tiaty 15-20 CFA 2. Baringo South 10-15 CFA 3. Baringo North 10-15 CFA 4. Mogotio 5-10 CFA 5 Baringo central 1-5 CFA 6 Eldama Ravine 1-5 CFA Table: 17: Recommended non-food Interventions AGRICULTURE Sub Interventi Ward No. of Proposed Require Available Time Count on beneficiari Implementer d Resources Frame y es s Resourc All Inputs All 10000 National Finances Staff 2018- provision Government, (Kshs 10 2022 including County million) capacity building on harvest and safe use of chemicals ALL Enhance 10000 National Finances Staff 2018- asset All Government, (Kshs 2022 creation County 200 Government Million) households especially ponds and water pans for food production ALL Enhance Irrigati 2000 National Finances Staff 2018- irrigated on Government, (Kshs 10 2022 Agriculture scheme County Million) conducting analysis and crops suitability surveys in irrigation schemes ALL Supply All 200 Ministry of Finances Staff, 2019- inputs Schools Education, (200 Availability 2022 especially with Ministry of Million) of well farms drought fenced escaping farms, planting Irrigation, materials fertilizers to Schools and other development institutions partners income generation and food Nutrition ALL Support of ALL 50000 Communicati Kshs 15 Staff 2019- Extension on Million 2022 through companies, digifarm platform Projects Development monitoring , effective service delivery, marketing and market Linkages WATER All Provision ALL 60 County 10.8M Improved June of PVC Institutions Government, roof 2019 tanks Ministry of structures of10,000 and water and lts technical irrigation, Capacity to backstoppin learning g Institutions and Health Centres Tiaty, Mechanize Tiaty, 45,000 County 72M Land March- Baring d desilting Baringo House Government, technical May o and North, holds NGOs expertise 2019 North, expansion South, Baring of 24No. Mogoti o Critical o South, water pans Mogoti while dry ADesign and All 55,000 County 1.5B Land 201920 ll Sub Constructi Government, technical 20 Counti on of NGOs expertise es Multi- purpose All Sub Water All Institutions County 35 M Human March Counti trucking Government, resource 2019 es and Water NGOs treatment Chemicals All Sub Provide ALL 2300 14.4M Water March Counti fueldiesel households County infrastructu 2019 e subsidy to ral facilities Government,",
            "Baringo_County_SRA_2020.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2020 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group and Baringo County Steering Group February 2021 Food security assessments are carried out twice a year by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and technical government departments of the County Steering Group (CSG). The 2020 short rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted from 18th -29th January, 2021 with the overall goal of developing an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of 2020 short rains. The assessment was also to take into consideration the cumulative effects of previous seasons and provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The onset of the OND was normal and took place in the first dekad of October resulting in an average amount of 206 mm of rainfall against a normal of 180mm. Both spatial and temporal distribution of the rains was poor with the peak of the season being observed in the second dekad of October while cessation of the season was earlier than normal (first dekad of December). COVID-19 -19 restrictions were still in place which hampered smooth flow of goods and services, but the most affected were the health and education sectors. The County experienced insecurity challenges in parts of Tiaty Sub County which led to disruption of markets and other essential services and currently there is a major security operation going on to restore law and order. Livestock disease cases were minimal while lake waters are still high causing displacements and submerging of land. Area under maize acreage reduced for both rain fed and irrigated agriculture while yield from rain fed agriculture was less than 60 percent of Long-Term Average (LTA) due to early rainfall cessation. Household stocks were 20 percent above LTA due to carry over from long rains harvest while forage conditions were good in all livelihood zones except in the pastoral areas where its poor to fair. Livestock body condition was good for all the species across the livelihood zones other than in pastoral areas where body condition for cattle was fair. Milk production was below LTA across the County and consumption was near normal, the prices of milk were above the LTA. Tropical livestock units were below the LTA with livestock disease outbreak being minimal. Main water sources were at normal capacities, the access distances to water points remained normal other than in pastoral areas where trekking distances were above LTA. Waiting time at water points and water consumption were normal across the County. About 73 percent of the households had acceptable food consumption score while another 25 percent had borderline food consumption score, the coping strategy index (CSI) stands at 12.47 with Agro pastoral livelihood zone having the highest CSI at 16.6. Adult morbidity was on a declining trend compared to the last three years and the three most common diseases reported were malaria, diarrhoea and typhoid although the reported cases were lower than in 2019. COVID-19 - 19 impacted heavily on Vitamin A immunization coverage leading to low coverage compared to the year 2019. Latrine coverage and hand washing practices were reported to be lowest in pastoral areas at three and two percent respectively but highest in the mixed farming livelihood zone at 78 and 69 percent respectively. According to SMART survey of 2019, malnutrition was highest in Tiaty Sub County at 20.9 percent (GAM), 9.3 percent (SAM) and 40.1 percent for stunting while malnutrition by MUAC in December showed 95 percent of the children not being malnourished. There was a reduction in enrolment for term II compared to term I in both primary and secondary schools and this was due to COVID-19 related issues that took place while students were at home such as teen pregnancies, circumcision ceremonies among others. Nearly 5,700 girls did not report back to school of which 70 percent of the cases could be due to pregnancies. About 73 percent of all the students in primary schools are under school feeding programs. The indicative phase of food security classification is Stressed (IPC Phase 2).",
            "Baringo_County_SRA_2019.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2019 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG) The 2019 short rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) that were drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition sectors and other stakeholders. The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the short rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the short rains of 2019. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. Rainfall performance was above normal. Some off season rains were also received in January. The main drivers of food insecurity were livestock diseases, conflict and malaria outbreak. Food stocks are available with the bulk of it being held at the household level. Livestock productivity is normal as evidenced by good livestock body condition, near normal milk production as well as high livestock prices. Terms of trade are good mostly for pastoral households. Markets are functional and are well stocked with the basic household items though Barwessa market was closed due to quarantine measures. Conflict tension may lead to market disruptions in pastoral areas. Water access and availability for both household and livestock consumption is good. Return trekking distances and waiting time are lower than the long term means. Water consumption per person per household is above long term means across all the livelihoods and is 20 to 30 litres on average. Latrine coverage is lowest in pastoral areas at three percent. Generally, a proportion of three (3), 21 and 76 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption respectively. There was an upsurge of malaria cases by 56 percent in the month of January compared to the previous month of December 2019. Normal coping strategies are being employed. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition increased marginally in the month of January probably due to upsurge of malaria cases. Baringo County is classified in Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The pastoral livelihood zone is in IPC Phase Two (Stress, IPC Phase 2) while the irrigated, agro pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones are in the Minimal Phase (IPC Phase One). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... 2 1.1. County Background ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.2. Objectives of the Assessment .......................................................................................................... 4 1.3. Methodology and Approach ............................................................................................................ 5 2.1. Rainfall Performance ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.2. InsecurityConflict .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.3. Other Shocks and Hazards ............................................................................................................... 6 3.1. Availability ..................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.1. Crop production ............................................................................................................................. 6 3.1.2. Cereal stocks.................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1.3. Livestock production ..................................................................................................................... 8 3.2. Access ............................................................................................................................................ 13 3.2.1. Market operations ........................................................................................................................ 13 3.2.2. Terms of Trade ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.3. Income sources ............................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.4. Water access and availability ....................................................................................................... 15 3.2.5. Food consumption ....................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.6. Coping strategy ............................................................................................................................ 17 3.3. Utilization .................................................................................................................................... 17 3.4. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ....................................................................................... 19 3.5. Education..................................................................................................................................... 20 4.1. Prognosis Assumptions ................................................................................................................. 21 4.2. Food Security Outlook (March, April and May) ............................................................................ 22 4.3. Food Security Outlook (June, July and August) ............................................................................. 22 5.1. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 22 5.2. Ongoing Interventions ................................................................................................................... 23 5.3. Recommended interventions .......................................................................................................... 27 5.3.1.Non- Food Interventions ............................................................................................................... 27 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The county covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the county which include mixed farming, pastoral, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones. 1.2 Objectives of the Assessment The main objective of the 2019 Short Rains Food Security Assessment (SRA) was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of short rains season of 2019 in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment was aimed: i. To ascertain at livelihood level, the quantity and quality of the 2019 short rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation. ii. To obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs iii. To assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods iv. To assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. v. To take stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programmes that promote preparedness and build household resilience. vi. To assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution 1 : P o pL oiv te io nlih oo u la t io n P e M ix e d F a P a s t o r a l A g r o P a s I r r i g a t e d r m in t o r a l C r o p 1.3 Methodology and Approach The 2019 Short Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 10th to 14th February 2020. The process began with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact- finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tool. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April-May (MAM) which extends to July. The short rains season is in October-November and December. The onset of the season was early in the first dekad of October compared to the normal of second dekad of October. On average, the County received a total of 476.68 mm of rainfall against the long term average of 179.68 mm. Most parts of the county received 201-350 percent of normal rains while a few pockets received 141-200 percent of normal short rains (Figure 2). Both spatial and temporal distribution of the rains was good. The rains ceased normally Figure 2 Rainfall performance in the third dekad of December. The county did receive off season rains during the third dekad of January 2020. 2.2. InsecurityConflict Cases of resources based conflict emerged in Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North sub county, ChuroAmaya and Loyamorock wards in Tiaty Sub County were reported. This created some tension in the affected areas and threatening normal functioning of the markets. However, the conflict only lasted for 3 weeks and had since been resolved by the local administrations. 2.3. Other Shocks and Hazards Livestock disease outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in Baringo North Sub County leading to closure of livestock markets such as Barwesa. This affected market access and subsequently affecting household incomes. A swarm of locusts was also reported in Tirioko ward, Tiaty Constituency in mid-January 2020. However, the impact of the locusts on food security is still insignificant. Floods and excess rains also interfered with farm preparation activities leading to less acreage being put under crop. Some crops were also swept away by floods. Outbreak of malaria cases in January also affected food utilization in the county. 3. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Rain-fed (major crops) Short rains in Baringo are critical for food and Nutrition security as they supplement the harvest from the long rains and helps in recharge of water bodies for irrigation purposes. The short rains of 2019 in the County were above the LTA average. Most of the farmers did not plant during the short rains season and this reduced the area under rain-fed crop farming, this was as a result of extended June-July-August rains which overlapped with the onset of the short rains, hence farmers didnt prepare their farms on time. For instance, area under maize and beans was 40 percent and 96 percent respectively of their LTA achievement. Acreage under maize went down as the early onset coupled with intense rains interrupted land preparation. The crop in the field is stable although some has been affected by floods especially in Kerio Valley, Barwessa ward where 86 Hectares of maize were destroyed by rains. Close monitoring of the continuing rains is being done Table 1: Area under Rain-fed Crop Production Crop Area planted Long Term 2019 Short Long Term Average during 2019 Average (5 year) rains season (5 year) production Short rains area planted production during the Short season during the Short (90 kg rains season (90 kg (Ha) rains season (Ha) bags)Tons bags)Tons ProjectedActual 1. Maize 134 336 3,150 8,300 2. Beans 860 899 7,988 13,491 4. Irish Potatoes 1,467 1,289 13,313 13,020 5. Cowpeas 31 36 163 200 6. Green grams 11 7 77 34 In addition, there was an outbreak of desert locust which invaded Kamurio, Maron, Rotu and Tiaty hills in Tiaty Sub County. Other areas where the outbreak was reported included sibilo, Bartabwa and Kuikui in Baringo North sub County, and Koriema in Baringo South Sub County. The damage caused was negligible on both crops and pasture as control measures were undertaken. The County is in high alert for any outbreak of desert locusts for appropriate control measures to be taken. The projected short rains maize and beans production reduced as compared to the long term average production due to reduction in acreage planted as well as skeptism by farmers about the reliability of the short rains. Irrigated Agriculture Table 2: Area under irrigated Agriculture Area Long Term 2019 Short rains Long Term planted Average area season Average during 2019 planted during the production (90 production during Short rains Short rains season kg bags) the Short rains season (Ha) (Ha) ProjectedActual season (90 kg bags) Maize 75 31 2,813 1,340 Tomatoes 25 23 272 235 Water melons 155 85 3041 1580 The area under maize increased by 141 percent of the LTA (Table 2). This was due to recharge of water sources and most farmers who didnt plant under rain fed opted to plant using irrigation water hence the increased acreage. The overlap of the June-August rains with the short rains also favored irrigation farming. The production of maize was 210 percent of the long term average. There were some fungal and bacterial diseases that affected most of the tomatoes and black night shade in the field. 3.1.2. Cereal stocks Table 3: Main Cereal stocks in the County Maize Rice Sorghum TOTAL Commodity Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 607,721 593,945 12 - 1,825 524 710,905 716,762 Traders 76,882 102,373 1,356 2,465 485 644 1,368 2,465 Millers 26,302 20,444 - - 12 120 2,322 1,288 Food AidNCPB - - - - - - - Farmer stocks were above the long term average (Table 3) by two percent and this was attributed to cumulative effects of rainfall performance of the short rains and long rains seasons of 2019. The bulk of the stocks are held in Eldama Ravine Sub County. Traders stocks are below long term averages (LTA) and are not moving due to low demand in the market. The sorghum stocks held by farmers are 248 percent above LTA as the rains were very favorable for the crop. Farmers are continuing to sell their stocks in order to purchase inputs for the long rains, so the stocks will decline in the next three months. Currently households in the pastoral and agro pastoral zones have limited stocks compared to those in the mixed and irrigated areas. The pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones are also depending on traderslocal markets for their supplies. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next harvest, but this depends on market prices where farmers can sale their produce within two months. 3.1.3. Livestock Production The main livestock species kept in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The short rains in Baringo County are very important in pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by- products like maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum and millet straw not to forget the legume by products are conserved for future use. These by-products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards in the county. Table 4 shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 4: Livestock Contribution to Income and Food Livelihood zone contribution Food Income Mixed farming 25 23 Irrigated cropping 25 8 Agro-pastoral 20 50 Pastoral 21 88 Pasture and Browse Condition Table 5: Pasture and Browse Condition Liveliho Pasture Browse od Zone Condition Pr o jected Factors Condition Projected Factors Duration to limitin Duration to limitin last (Months) g last (month) g access access Curre Norm Curre Norm Curre Norm Curre Norm nt al nt al nt al nt al Mixed Good Good 3 3 None Good Good 4 3 None Irrigated Good Good 3 3 None Good Good 4 3 None Agro- Good Good 3 2 None Good Good 4 2 None Pastoral Good Good 3 2 Insecuri Good Good 4 2 Insecuri ty ty tensions tensions The forage condition is good across all livelihood zones (Table 5). The duration pasture is expected to last three months as compared to normal 2-3 months while browse is expected to last four months compared to 2-3 months normally. There is limitation to forage in Saimo Soi and Kapedo as result of security challenges. The livestock are usually grazed by male youth and women. In other cases, the livestock are released to the fields themselves and come back later on the afternoon. Livestock Productivity Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition is currently good across all livelihood zones (Table 6). The condition is attributed to good quality forage. There is improved trend in body condition due to improving forage quality and the situation is likely to remain if the present rains continue. The livestock body condition may affect livestock prices upwards hence improving the farmers purchasing power. Table 6: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Zone Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Currently Normally Mixed Good Good Good Good Good Good NA NA Irrigated Good Good Good Good Good Good Agro- Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Pastoral Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Birth Rates The general birth rates were three percent across all livelihood zones as a result favorable conditions. This is attributed to good conception enabled by adequate forage of high quality. The deviations were due to levels of forage and livestock body condition per livelihood zone. With the highest being in mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones and lowest in agro- pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) The average tropical livestock holding was 3.08 for poor households and 4.9 in medium households (Table 7). The present TLUs are compared to three (3) in poor and 4.7 in medium income households in the last assessment. There was slight increase in TLUs as compared to last assessment. Table 7: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming 2.8 3 3.5 4 Irrigated 2.35 3.5 3.94 5 Agro-pastoral 2.98 5 5.5 6 Pastoral 4.2 7 7 7 Average 3.08 4.6 4.9 5.25 Milk Availability Milk availability slightly increased and was attributed to improved forage quality, and reduction in trekking distance (Table 8). The increases resulted in decrease in milk prices to Ksh.30-50 in mixed and irrigated cropping zones, while in agro-pastoral and pastoral zones, milk retailed at Ksh 60 per litre. Some households in the pastoral livelihoods zones were still getting milk from mixed farming zones. Milk consumption was 2-2.5 litres as compared to 2-3 litres long term average. Table 8: Milk Availability, Consumption and Prices Livelihood zone Milk production per Milk consumption per Prices(KES) HH(Lts) HH(Lts) Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed farming 5-7 8 2.5 3 30-50 50 Irrigated 5-7 8 2.5 3 50 50 Agro-pastoral 3.5 4 2 2 60 60 Pastoral 3 3 2 2 60 60 Water for Livestock The main sources of water include boreholes, permanent rivers, which are Kerio, Amaya, Pekerra, Molo, Arabal, Wasenges and Mukutani (Table 9). The lakes include Bogoria, Baringo, Kamnarok and lake 94. The water pans were recharged between 80-90 percent but are still being recharged with the presence of off-season rains. The trekking distance was stable at 3-7 kilometers. The watering frequency remained constant across all livelihood zones adequate water availability due to enhanced rains. Access to water from the lakes was limited by crocodile hazards. Table 9: Water for Livestock Livelihood Sources Return trekking Expected duration Watering zone distance(Km) frequency (No of days per week) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Streams, Streams, 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout 7 7 farming Rivers, Rivers, springs, springs, piped piped water, water, boreholes, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, Rivers, 0.5-2 1-1.5 Throughout Throughout 7 7 cropping shallow shallow wells and wells and springs. springs. Agro- water Streams, 3-6 3-7 2-3 months 3 months 7 7 pastoral pans, water Boreholes, pans, rivers, Boreholes streams Pastoral Bore- Water- 3-7 3-7 2-3 months 3 months 7 7 holes, pans, water Bore- pans, holes, rivers rivers Livestock Migration There were no reported migrations due to pasture and water deficiency. However, insecurity tensions between Baringo North with Tiaty Sub County on one hand and Tiaty Sub County with Turkana County have caused households to move to the interior of their sub-counties. Cases of livestock migration are not expected in the next three months due to the prevailing favorable water and forage conditions. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The notifiable disease reported was Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Barwessa Ward (Table 10). In the process, quarantine was imposed leading to a closure of all the markets in the ward. The other diseases reported in the county were normal in their normal ranges. There were no mortalities due to drought save for few diseases related mortalities. Measures taken were disease surveillance in all the counties and vaccination in targeted sub-counties as per available resources. Table 10: Livestock Diseases and Mortalities due to Diseases Sub- Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock lost Measures county taken(Vaccinations Baringo NCD Sub-county-wise Chicken 100 chicken Endemic Central (Endemic) LSD Salawatenges Cattle No deaths Re-current Tiaty CCPP Sub-county-wise Goats NR PPR Sub-county-wise Sheep and NR goats FMD Loyamorok Cattle camels NR LSD Kolloa Cattle 3 cattle Eldama FMD Majimazuri Cattle 6 cases reported No action Ravine mumberes,Koiba Abortions Ravine ward Cattle 8 cases reported ECF Ravine,Perkerra, Cattle 15 cases reported L.kwen Baringo CCPP Kimorok Goats 54 NR south Heart water Illchamus Goats 40 goats NR FMD Mochongoi Cattle No deaths reported NR Mange Marigat Goats No deaths reported NR Lumpy Marigat Goats No deaths reported NR Disease Baringo CCPP Sub-county-wise Goats 17 goats Endemic north (Endemic) PPR Saimo Soi, Shoats 16 goats 23,450 vaccinated FMD Bartabwa Cattle No deaths 23,050 vaccinated FMD Saimo soi, Cattle No deaths Quarantine LSD Barwessa Cattle No deaths Re-current Sheep Kabartonjo, All 9 sheep Re-current pneumonia Saimo Orf Sibilo Shoats 28 cattle Helminthia Sub-countywise Shoats 113 Anaplasmo Saimo soi Cattle 9 Rabies Kabartonjo, Dogs No deaths 325 vaccinated Saimo Anthrax Kbo, Saimo Cattle 20 deaths 5026 vaccinated Kipsaraman, Bartabwa E.C.Fever Kbo Cattle 13 deaths 3.2. Access 3.2.1. Market operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. Market operations were normal albeit for Barwesa market, which was disrupted due to quarantine as a result of FMD outbreak. The major food commoditiesstaples were available in the markets from the previous seasons harvest. Supplies from other markets outside the County were also stable. Markets play a crucial role towards achieving accessibility pillar of food security in terms of availing the food and income. Maize Prices The current average price for kilogram maize was at Ksh. 47, a marginally increase of four percent as compared to the previous month at Ksh. 46 (Figure 4). The price was stable in in comparison to the long-term average at this time of the year. Pastoral livelihood Zone recorded the highest price of Ksh.49 per Kg while irrigated Livelihood Zone recorded the lowest of Ksh.33 per Kg. This can be attributed by the decreasing stocks at household levels and increased stocks at local retailers. Figure 3. Maize Prices Beans Prices The average price per kilogram for beans decreased by 10 percent at Kshs.111.2 in comparison to the previous month at Ksh. 124. (Figure 4). The price decrease was attributed to harvesting of beans in the irrigated livelihood zone and influx of the commodity in the pastoral livelihood zones as the beans come from the neighbouring Elgeyo Marakwet County.Pastoral Livelihood Zone recorded the highest average prices of Ksh.125 while the irrigated recorded the least prices of Ksh.90 Figure 4. Beans Prices Goat prices The average price of a medium size goat was relatively stable at KSh. 2,917 as compared to the previous month at KSh. 3,065 (Figure This goat price was above the LTA by percent. The prices were highest in irrigated cropping livelihood Zone at KSh. 3,667 and lowest in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2, 500. The better prices were as a result of good livestock body conditions and limited livestock numbers availed for sale in the markets. Figure 5. Goat Prices 3.2.2. Terms of Trade The terms of trade decreased by eight percent in comparison to the previous month of January at 66.9 to currently 61.7 (Figure 6). This was attributed to slight decrease in goat prices and increase in maize prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 96.5 while agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 55.6 Figure 6: Terms of trade 3.2.3. Income Sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, and casual waged labour among others as illustrated in table 11 below. Table 11: Main Sources of Cash Income Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed Farming LZ LZ Livestock Production 88 50 5 23 Food Crop Production - 4 5 5 Cash crop production -- - 59 30 Small Business 1 4 5 7 Casual Waged Labour 1 15 10 20 Formal Waged Labour 1 5 4 5 Poultry Production 2 5 3 1 Fishing - 10 4 - 3.2.4. Water Access and Availability Major Water Sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Generally, the water sources are mainly concentrated in the mixed farming livelihood zones where the potential is high and rainfall amounts are higher as compared to the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Generally, in the mixed farming and irrigated farming zones communities have more access to water than in pastoral livelihood zones. Most of the water pans across the county in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones were recharged to between 95-100 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 60-70 percent normally. The available water is likely to last 3-4 months as compared to 2-3 months normally. In irrigated cropping and mixed farming livelihood zones, water pans were recharged up to 100 percent of their normal capacity except for Keriwok and Cheptuya water pans that have low water levels and low recharges respectively as a result of their structural designs and facility locations. The water is expected to last 3-4 months. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans in all livelihood zones are stable but on slight reducing trend due to high temperatures, utilization and siltation levels. Currently, 90 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones; however, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electro-mechanical breakdowns for example Kreeze borehole, Kirim borehole, Ngoron, Kapkun borehole, Silonga borehole and water quality challenges like Perkerrra, Labos, Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima along the western rift valley of Baringo county (Table 11). Table 12: Major Water Sources Ward Water No. of No. of Projecte Normal of full Locality of Non- Livelihoo Source Normal Current d Duratio Capacity operational Water d zone (Three Operatio Operati Duration n that Recharged Sources (3) nal onal (Operati water by the major Sources onal last in Rains sources) Sources) months Pastoral 1. Bore 76 70 Over 6 Over 6 stable Ngooron Bh, Kreeze Holes Months months Bh, Kirim Bh , Ngoron, Kapkun BH, Silonga BH 2.Water 63 63 34 3 4 90 - 3.Spring 10 10 3 - 4 4 5 70 - 80 s Months Months Agro - 1. Bore 56 52 Over 6 Over 6 stable Pastoral Holes Months months 2. Water 23 23 3 4 3 4 95 - 3. 18 18 3- Over 6 70 - 80 Springs 4Months months Mixed 1. Bore 39 37 Over 6 Over 6 stable Farming Holes Months months 2. 135 135 Over 6 Over 6 80 - 90 Springs Months Months 3.Rivers 6 6 Over 6 4 -5 90 - 95 Months Months Irrigated 1. 6 6 3months Over 6 95 -100 Cropping Rivers months 2.Shallo 8 3 3- Over 6 stable Perkerrra, Labos, w Wells 4months months Kailer, Longewan, Kampi Ukulima, 3. 3 3 Over 3 stable Swamps Months Distance to Water Sources The average return trekking distances to domestic water sources were slightly below normal at 3- 4.5 km in pastoral and 3-3.5 km in agropastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 3.5 5.5 kms. The distances were normal at 0.5 -1.5Km in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones due adequate water availability as result of good rainfall performance. Waiting Time at the Source The current water status is projected to be stable in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal season last year. The waiting time at the source in mixed farming livelihood zone is between 2-3 minutes which is slightly below normal while in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas it was between 2-4 minutes which is below normal. Cost of Water and Consumption The cost of water at the source is generally stable at Ksh 3-5 across all livelihood zones while water from open water sources is free. The water vendors sold water depending on the distances covered but on average it was sold at Ksh 20 per 20 litres jerican. Water consumption per person per day was slightly above normal at 25 30 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone and 20-25 litres in agro pastoral and pastoral zone compared to normal (Table 12). This was attributed to adequate water availability across all livelihood zones. Table 13: Return Distances to Water Sources, Cost of Water, Waiting time and Consumption Ward Return Distance to Cost of Water at Waiting Time at Average Water livelihood zone Water for Domestic Source (Ksh. Per Water Source Consumption Use (Km) 20litres) (Minutes) (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 5 - 6 3 4.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 12 - 15 20 - 25 Agro Pastoral 3.5 5.5 3 3.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 2 - 4 12 - 15 20 - 25 Mixed Farming 1.5 3.0 1.0 1.5 3 5 3 5 2 - 3 2 - 3 15 - 20 25 - 30 Irrigated 0.5 - 1.5 0.5 1.5 3 - 5 3 - 5 1 - 2 1 - 2 15 - 20 25 - 30 Cropping 3.2.5. Food Consumption According to the NDMA bulletin, 2.8 percent of the households reported poor food consumption and were in the pastoral livelihood zone (Figure 7). The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 31.7 in pastoral, 13.3 in fishing and 3.3 in agro pastoral livelihood zones. Generally, a proportion of 1.9, 23 and 75.1 percent of the households across the livelihoods have poor, borderline and Figure 7: Food Consumption Score acceptable food consumption score respectively. Food security situation across all livelihood zones was stable as compared to the previous month; this is attributed to availability of leafy vegetables and better purchasing power across all livelihood zones. 3.2.6. Coping strategy The average coping strategy index was 13.88 a decrease compared to last month at 14.22 (Figure 8). Households in agro pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 23.2 followed by pastoral at 14.3. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 4. The decrease in the coping strategies was due to availability of food at households Figure 8: Coping Strategy Score level across all livelihood zones 3.3. Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Among the three most common diseases, and malaria have shown a declining trend in 2019 compared to 2018 among children under the age of five. While in general population there is a decline in diarrhoea. As illustrated in Figure 9 the three most common diseases for under five children, and malaria have shown a declining trend in Figure 9: Morbidity for under five (5yrs) 2019 compared to 2018 among children under the age of five, while the diarrhea cases have increased. Figure 10 shows malaria increase by 56 percent down from 2,980 cases in December 2019 to 6,775 cases in January 2020 among the general population. The increase may be attributed to enhanced rainfall performance which created a conducive environment for breeding of mosquitoes. Figure 10: Morbidity for General Population 3.3.2. Immunization Coverage and Vitamin A supplementation The average county immunization coverage between July and December 2019 increased to 63.1percent, up from 60.1 percent same period in 2018. The current coverage remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for fully immunized children can be attributed to increase in integrated outreaches and Figure 11: Vitamin A supplementation improvement in increase in immunizing sites in the county. Vitamin A supplementation for the county between June and December 2019 indicated an increase. Four out of seven sub counties achieved percentage of the national target of 80 percent as shown in Figure 11. The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 12-59 months can be attributed to Malezi Bora activities which made use of Early Childhood Development (ECD) and Community Health Units in Baringo Central (89), Baringo north (92.9), Mogotio (85.6) sub counties. 3.3.3. Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity The nutrition status of the children under five years of age had marginally improved with proportion at risk of malnutrition being 20 percent, as compared to the previous month at 21 percent (Fig 12). However, the upsurge of malaria cases in irrigated livelihood zone, Komolion, Ribko and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones saw higher rates of malnutrition. Komolion and Kollowa wards in the pastoral livelihood zones recorded highest levels of malnutrition at 27.8 and 23.64 respectively. 3.3.4. Sanitation and Hygiene Hand washing at the four critical moments was 2.2 and 10.1 percent in Tiaty and Baringo North and South sub counties respectively. The proportion of households using soap and water for hand washing in Tiaty sub-county was 24.7 percent while in Baringo north and Baringo south sub- counties the proportion was 69.5 percent. The county latrine coverage up to June 2019 was 43.6 percent with East Pokot Sub County having the lowest at 3.14 percent (Table 13). Open defecation was high across the livelihoods as evidenced by the SMART Survey data where 93.3 percent of the households in Tiaty Sub County relieved themselves in the bush or open field. In Baringo North, 27.2 percent were reported to be relieving themselves in the bush or open field. About 20 30 percent of households in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones in Chepkalacha, Sirata, Kapkuikui, Kaptara, Amaya, Sintaani reported persistence of water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria as a result of inadequate toilet coverage and low levels of personal hygiene. Table 14: Latrine coverage SNO. Sub County Latrine coverage 1 Koibatek 78 2 Baringo Central 47 3 Marigat 46 4 Mogotio 4 5 5 Baringo North 42 6 East Pokot 3.14 7 Tiaty East 3.14 Baringo County 43.6 Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 15: Food Security Indicators Indicator Short rains assessment, Long rains assessment, July, 2019 of maize stocks held by 102 55 households Livestock body condition Agro Pastoral Good Agro Pastoral Fair-Good (Cattle) Irrigated cropping Good Irrigated cropping Mixed Farming Good Mixed Farming Good -Fair Pastoral-all species Good Pastoral-all species Fair Water consumption (litres Agro Pastoral 20-25 Agro Pastoral 10-15 per person per day Irrigated cropping 25-30 Irrigated cropping 20-25 Mixed Farming 25-30 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species 20-25 Pastoral-all species 8-10 Price of maize (per kg) Ksh 55kg Distance to grazing Agro Pastoral 3.3 Agro Pastoral 1-2km Irrigated cropping 0.8 Irrigated cropping Mixed Farmin Mixed Farmin 1 km Pastoral-all species 3.5 Pastoral-all species 3-4km Terms of trade (pastoral 67 46 zone) Coping strategy index County-13.9 County-14.3 Agro Pastoral-27 Agropastoral-23.2 Pastoral-14.5 Irrigated Cropping-4. Pastoral-14.3 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption score Acceptable 75.1 Acceptable 60.7 Borderline 23 Borderline 34.5 Poor 1.9 Poor 4.9 3.4. Education 3.5.1. Enrolment There was an increase of three, five and 10 percent in enrolment in ECDE, Primary and Secondary levels respectively at end of January Term I within the county (Table 15). The increase was majorly attributed to the admissions of after age entry carried out in term 1. Secondary schools enrolment increased due to increase in allocation of free day secondary education fund and 100 percent transition policy. Table 16: Enrolment Term 111 2019 Term I 2020 Enrolment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECD 25,352 24,282 49634 25918 25258 51176 Primary 75452 70734 146186 78485 74443 152928 Secondary 23558 22953 46511 25076 26040 51116 3.5.2. Participation The average monthly attendance of pupils in ECDE centres increased in Term I 2020 compared to term III 2019 because of timely disbursement of Home Grown School Meals Program (HGSMP) funds to primary schools. Early pregnancies, peer influence, motor bike riding and transfers were the main cause in low attendance of girls and boys. 3.5.3. Retention (Drop out) There was no significant drop out reported although daily absenteeism was experienced from time to time across all levels. Drop out of girls from school is normally associated with early pregnancies, negative influences, drugs and lack of school fees. Boys on the other hand drop out in search of money through motor bike riding, drugs and negative influences. The main reasons for absenteeism in school for ECD centres, primary and secondary schools were lack of food in school due to delays in delivery of food. 3.5.4. School Meals Programme A total of 260 public primary schools with 62,150 pupils are under the Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMPLRPNON LRP); 115 schools with 20,315 pupils are under Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) supported by the Government of Kenya (GoK) and World Food Programme (WFP) as shown in Table 16. The food basket includes maize, beans, vegetable oil and salt. The Homegrown School Meals Programme is the only programme in all public primary schools in the county. This Programme has contributed to an increased and sustained enrolment in all public primary schools within the county by attracting children to school, improving learners attendance and boosting their retention rate while in class. Water and firewood shortages remained the challenges experienced in the programme leading to pupils missing meals occasionally. Occasional delay in disbursement of HGSFP fund to Primary schools which delayed the procurement processes has constrained the provision of meals to pupils. Public ECD pupils have a snack in the form of enriched porridge supported by the county government. Table 17: School Meals Program Sub Counties No. Of Schools HGSMPLRPNON RSMP Total No. of LRP Beneficiaries Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Baringo Central 34 3,392 3,340 0 0 3,392 3,340 Mogotio 106 14,280 13,913 0 0 14,280 1,3913 Marigat 49 6,610 6,415 0 0 6,610 6,415 Ravine 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Baringo North 71 6,980 7,220 0 0 6,980 7,220 Tiaty 115 0 0 11,209 9,106 11,209 9,106 Sub Total 375 31,262 30,888 11,209 9,106 42,471 39,994 Total 62,150 20,315 82,465 4. FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1. Prognosis Assumptions According to the meteorological department, the long rains season of March-April- May will be above normal with an early onset. Forage conditions are expected to remain good due to the above normal rains that were received in the short rains season. The off season rains will ensure that the forage conditions will be good up to the next season. Livestock prices will remain relatively above normal due to good body condition. Milk production will remain above normal up to the nest rainfall season. There will be minimal livestock disease outbreak with minimal impacts on markets. According to NDMA bulletin, cereal prices will decline marginally but remain stable as the harvested crops starts entering markets. The water situation will remain good. Return distances from water points will remain below normal while waiting time at water source will be shorter compared to the previous normal seasons. The normal crop calendar will remain in force with farmers planting on time for the oncoming long rains season. There will be minimal crop pest interference. Minimal cases of malaria outbreak will be reported in some pockets of the county due to prevailing above normal wet conditions. 4.2. Food Security Outlook (March, April and May) Food consumption is likely to improve in the next three months. This is attributed to improving livestock productivity whereby purchasing power of households will be enhanced thus being in a position to access food. There are food stocks within the households and traders which likely to last up to the next season. Nutrition status of children under five years will improve in the next three months. This is due to improved milk production and consumption at the household level. The livestock body condition is expected to remain good and stable thus ensuring enhanced milk production. The proportion of households applying general coping strategies is expected to reduce in the next three months. This is due to adequate current food stocks held at households and traders thus there will be very minimal cases of food intake gaps Irrigated cropping livelihood zone is expected to apply non coping strategies while pastoral livelihood zone will be applying minimal stressed coping strategies. Mortality rates are expected to remain static for the next three months 4.3. Food Security Outlook (June, July and August) Most households are expected to have acceptable food consumption. This is due to the expected good yield from the long rains season as well as improved livestock production and productivity. Good livestock body condition will translate to better livestock prices leading to improved purchasing power mostly for pastoral households. Nutrition status will be normal. Cases of malnutrition are expected to be very minimal as milk production and consumption will be normal to above normal. Majority of the households across all livelihood zones are expected to apply non coping strategies in accessing food. Mortality rates are expected to slightly decline 5. CONCLUSION AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1. Conclusions 5.1.1. Phase classification The overall county IPC phase classification is in phase two (Stressed). The irrigated agriculture, agro pastoral and the mixed farming livelihood zones are in phase one (IPC phase 1) while the pastoral livelihood zone is in IPC phase 2 (Stressed). 5.1.2. Summary of Findings The performance of the short rains season was above normal compared to the previous seasons. The onset of the season was early while both spatial and temporal distributions were good. The county also encountered off season rains in January. Forage conditions were above normal, resulting in improved livestock body condition. There was improved livestock productivity in terms of body condition and milk production. Livestock disease outbreak was minimal with foot and mouth outbreak being reported in Baringo North Sub County. Acreage under maize declined compared to long term average in rain fed agriculture, leading to 67 percent decline in normal crop harvest. The county had sufficient maize stocks with households having stocks that were above long term averages. Water situation was above normal compared to long term means across the livelihood zones. Return trekking distances and waiting time were less than normal. The water sources are likely to last longer than usual. Nearly all the open water sources were recharged to their full capacity. Water consumption per person per day was above normal across all the livelihood zones. Markets were functional and were well stocked with food and non-food commodities. Barwessa market in Baringo North Sub County was closed due to quarantine measures. Livestock prices remained above long term averages while on the other hand, cereals particularly maize exhibited a declining trend. Terms of trade were favorable, translating to higher purchasing power especially for pastoral households. School enrolment and participation improved in term 1 compared to the previous term across all the levels of learning. Majority of the households had acceptable food consumption across all the livelihoods. Household employed normal coping strategies in accessing food. There was an upsurge of malaria cases mostly in Tiaty Sub County, a factor that affected food utilization especially for children. Latrine coverage was reported to be very low in the pastoral areas compared to the national average. 5.1.3. Sub-County Ranking Table 18: Sub County ranking Sub County Food Security Main food security threat (if any) Rank (Worst to Best) (1-10) Tiaty 1 Foot and mouth, LSD, malaria outbreak, water borne diseases, insecurity tension, locust invasion, market interruption Baringo South 2 Floods, malaria outbreak, water borne diseases, malnutrition, insecurity Baringo North 3 Foot and mouth disease, malaria upsurge, quarantine Mogotio 4 Minimal malnutrition cases, floods, foot and mouth Baringo Central 5 Eldama Ravine 6 5.2. Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1. Food interventions There is no general food distribution program in the county. However, several schools in the county are benefitting from school feeding program. 5.2.2. Non-Food Interventions Table 19: Nonfood interventions Intervention Specific Cost Number of Implementation Implementation location beneficiaries timeframe stakeholders Male Female Vitamin A All 2,200,000 47,200 47,545 Routine MOH supported supplementation health by UNICEF, facilities, WVK Afya selected uzazi Zinc All 867,000 37,000 38,000 Routine County facilities health Management of 100 231,000,000 52600 54892 Routine County Acute Malnutrition health department of (IMAM facilities health supported by National Surge at government, 6 health UNICEF, WVK facilities and WFP in East Pokot IYCN All 52,600 54,892 County Interventions (EBF health department of and Timely Intro facilities health supported of complementary and by Afya uzazi Foods communi ty units Iron Folate All County among Pregnant facilities health supported Women ANC by WVK, UNICEF Deworming All 33,683 facilities Food Fortification Blanket County supplementary department of feeding health supported Cash transfer KRCS WVKWFP National Food Aid National Outreaches County Mass screening County Health education, County passing of health department of messages health services, AGRICULTURE Creation of ALL 2.3 M 5,000 2015-2019 National productive assets Government and by households- County Especially Farm Government of ponds Baringo, Development partners Post-Harvest ALL(Pro 8.5 Million 2000 2019-2020 County Practices(Inputs vided Government supply and with construction of Hermetic stores in Baringo bags) North and Eldama Cereal Ravine stores build at Bartolim o and Kewango Soil Fertility ALL 0.6 M 400 2017-2019 Baringo County management Government- Agriculture Nutrition and Food ALL 0.4 M 3,000 2017-2019 Baringo County Utilization Government- initiatives Agriculture Livestock Baringo 0.2M 500HH Jun2019- BCG upgrading North onwards County- 16.5M 1,200 Dec 2019 BCG Commercial off- wise Provision of Baringo 1.M 200HH Aug,2019-Oct, MOALF, pasture seeds south, 2019 BCG 500Kg Baringo north, Tiaty, central, Mogotio, Of NFIs to youth 500HH 4M 300HH Jul,2019-Jan, BCG groups 2020 Partners Provision of Tiaty 2M 3,000HH July 2019-Oct BCG beehives Baringo 2019 North Vaccination Baringo 2M 2000HH August 2019 BCG RPLRP against Central PPR,Rabies and Baringo FMD. North Funding of farmer ERavine 500HH Jul,2019- BCG KSCAP groups(C.I.Gs) Baringo Jan,2020 Disease County- 0.1M 50,000TLU Jul, 2019- BCG surveillance wise Jan,2020 Capacity building All sub- 1M 1,000HH Throughout BCG(MOALF) of Farmers counties Partners General water Commun 10M 380HH On going BCG, NG, supply and BHs ity KRCS rehabilitation Construction of Whole 46M 1560HH 1year BCG, NG, New water County Projects Drilling and Whole 200M 2620 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, Equipping County Strategic 10 No. Capacity building Whole 4.5M 2130 HH 1 Year BCG, NG, RCS, on water County WV, UNCEF, management and Catchment protection 5.3. Recommended interventions 5.3.1. Non- Food Interventions Sub Intervention Number of Proposed Required Available Time countyWar beneficiari implementer resources resources frame d es s All Mass screening 80 sites County 1,500,000 150,000 April department of 2020 East Pokot, Integrated medical 40 sites County 5,000,000 1,600,000 April Baringo outreaches department of May,Jun North, health e Marigat services, Afya 2020 mogotio uzazi, All Purchase and County 3,000,000 1,000,000 May distribute water department of 2020 treatment drugs health All Passing health and 57 CUs County 4,000,000 1,200,000 April nutrition messages to department of June the community health 2020 BBC midia action All IMAM Strengthen LMIS 100 health County 900,000 - April implementin reporting and request facilities department of 2020 g health health facilities services, Tiaty East, Agri-Nutrition 57 Cus County 10,000,00 2,00,000 East Pokot, departme 0 0 Marigat, nt of Baringo, health North, services, Mogotio and BBC Baringo media central action 57 Sensitize CHEWS 57 Cus County 1,500,000 - community and CHVs on departme units nutrition technical nt of module health Selected Implement IMAM Tia 40 health County 6,000,000 1,500,00 health surge facilites departme 0 facilities nt of (40) all over health the county services, , WVK Selected Implement BFCI 30 health County 4,000,000 - CUs facilites departme nt of , WVK, uzazi County Purchase and 25 Health County 3,000,000 500,000 distribute fridge to facilities departme new health facilities nt of services,, Uzazi Community 18 No. Water Supply 2,480HH BCG, NG, 120M 10M 1- 6 Water Rehabilitation KRCS, WV, months Supplies in upgrading UNCEF, pastoral and Servicing and ACTED, agro- replacement of USAID, pastoral pumping units NDMA livelihood Institutions Roof Water 60 BCG, NG, 18M - 1- 6 Communitie harvesting structures Institutions KRCS, WV, months s in Pastoral UNCEF, and Agro- ACTED, Pastoral USAID, Zones NDMA Community Stock piling of Fast 1,260 HHs BCG, NG, 600,000 1- 6 WS in Moving Spares 20 KRCS, WV, months Pastoral and No. community ASAL UNCEF, agro- water supplies areas NDMA Water Capacity 30 No. BCG, NG, 10 M 1- 6 supplies in Strengthening on Community KRCS, WV, months Pastoral and WASH Water Water UNCEF, Agro- Management and supplies ACTED, Pastoral Catchment protection ACTION Zones AID, USAID, pastoral and Supply of Water 3,000HHs BCG, NG, 6 M - 1 -6 agro treatment KRCS, WV, Months pastoral equipments like UNCEF, Zones water purifiers, Pur, ACTED, Aqua tabs etc ACTION Whole Water Governance Baringo BCG, NG, 3 M - 1 -6 County and Management County KRCS, WV, Months Policy development Water UNCEF, Resources ACTED, Users ACTION NEMA, WRMA, NDMA, WFP pastoral and Drilling and 1500HH BCG, NG, 180M 60M 1 - 5 yrs agro Equipping of RCS, WV, pastoral strategic 12 No. BHs UNCEF, Zones along migratory NDMA routes and settlement areas pastoral and Construction and 1800HH BCG, NG, 200M 30M 1 5 yrs agro Upgrading of 16 No. RCS, WV, pastoral potential Low Cost UNCEF, Zones Water Supplies NDMA, CIM, pastoral and Construction of 4 2400HH BCG, NG, 800M 1 -5Yrs agro No. Small dams for RCS, WV, pastoral domestic and UNCEF, Zones irrigation water use NDMA pastoral and Capacity 50 No. BCG, NG, 50 M 1 - 5Yrs agro Strengthening on Water RCS, WV, pastoral Wash Water Supplies UNCEF, Zones ManagementResour NDMA, CIM, ces Mobilization WFP Conflict Resolution and Management and Catchment protection -BNorth, -Vaccination against, Countywid BCG, 4M - Feb,202 Mogotio FMD, LSD e National 0-June, Tiaty(FMD) -Disease surveillance government 2020 Tiaty, and BNorth(LS Development D) partners Tiaty Reseeding of pasture 500HH BCG 10M 0.5M Feb- Baringo RPLRP April North Partners 2020 to Baringo Dec Baringo Establishment of MOALF 54.088 M Aug North strategic livestock BCG 2019- -Tiaty feed reserves; 3 in NDMA(EU) Dec,201 -Baringo - Tiaty, 2 in Baringo Partners 2 South North 2 in Baringo Mogotio south and 1 in All sub- Hay harvesting and 41,500HH BCG 60M Aug county baling machinery RPLRP 2019- 1 per sub-county KCSAP Dec,202 AGRICULTURE SECTOR Inputs all 10000 National Finances Staff 2019- provision Government, (Kshs 10 2022 including County million) capacity Government building on and post-harvest development and safe use partners of chemicals Enhance 10000 National Finances Staff 2019- asset All Government, (Kshs 2022 creation for County 200 households Government Million) especially and Farmponds development and water partners pans for production Enhance Irrigation schemes 2000 National Finances Staff 2019- irrigated Government, (Kshs 10 2022 Agriculture County Million) by Government conducting and Soil analysis development and crops partners suitability surveys in all irrigation schemes Supply All Schools with 200 Ministry of Finances Staff, 2019- inputs farms Education, (200 Availabilit 2022 especially Ministry of Million) y of well drought Agriculture fenced escaping and Irrigation, farms, planting County materials Government and and fertilizers to development Schools and partners other institutions of Learning for Learning income generation and food and Nutrition security Support of ALL 50000 Communicati Kshs 15 Staff 2019- Extension on companies, Million 2022 through County digifarm Government platform for and Projects Development monitoring, partners effective service delivery, marketing and market Linkages",
            "Baringo_County_SRA_2022.pdf": "BARINGO COUNTY 2022 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESMENT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), January 2022 The 2022 short rains assessment was conducted by the technical members of the Baringo county steering group (CSG) and supported by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in all the main livelihood zones. The main objective of the assessment was to develop an objective, evidence base and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the short rains of 2022. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The onset of the short rains season was normal in the first dekad of October and characterized by uneven spatial distribution and poor temporal distribution. The cessation was normal in the third dekad of December. Insecurity tension resulting from competition for pastures and water was reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones while endemic livestock diseases were reported across the county. Acreage put under rain fed agriculture and its projected yield were below the long-term average (LTA) while projected yield and acreage put under irrigated agriculture was above LTA for beans, green grams and maize but less for tomatoes and water melons. Household maize stocks were below LTA by 31 percent. Forage conditions and livestock body condition for cattle were poor in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones. Milk production, consumption and prices were above LTA across all livelihood zones. Unusual livestock migrations were observed in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones triggering insecurity tensions. Market operations were normal though some were interrupted by insecurity incidents during the season under review. Livestock prices were below LTA while cereal prices were above LTA. Terms of trade were very poor with the Pastoral zone being the most affected. Water access and availability was poor as shown by increasing trekking distances to watering points, reduced water volumes, increased waiting time and reduced water discharge from boreholes. Household water consumption per person per day was below LTA across all livelihood zones and the water cost was above LTA across the county. Water quality is deteriorating at watering points due to congestion. The average county food consumption (FCS) score was Borderline at 35.2 with the Pastoral zone having the highest proportions of households with borderline and poor FCS of 50 and 19.2 percent respectively. The Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest coping strategy index (CSI) at 25.2 and 17.5 respectively. Tiaty sub county had the lowest latrine coverage and highest open defecation in the county while 70 percent of households in the county wash their hands at four critical times a day. There was a marginal decline in school enrolment for all levels of learning in term three compared to term two. The overall IPC phase classification for the county is at phase three (Crisis) whereby Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones were in IPC phase three while the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone was in IPC phase two (Borderline). The Irrigated cropping and the Mixed farming livelihood zones were in IPC phase one (NoneMinimal). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... ii 3.1.1 Crops production ............................................................................................................ 5 3.1.2 Cereal stocks ................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.3 Livestock production ...................................................................................................... 8 3.1.4 Impact on availability ................................................................................................... 14 3.2.1 Market operations ......................................................................................................... 14 3.2.2 Market prices ................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.3 Terms of trade ............................................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 Income sources ............................................................................................................. 16 3.2.5 Water access and availability ....................................................................................... 16 3.2.6 Food consumption ........................................................................................................ 19 3.2.7 Coping Strategy ............................................................................................................ 19 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns .................................................................................. 20 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation ............................................................ 21 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity............................................................................ 22 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene.................................................................................................. 24 3.5.1 Access ........................................................................................................................... 26 3.5.2 School feeding program ................................................................................................ 27 3.5.3 Effects of the season on learning continuity ................................................................. 29 5.1.1 Phase classification ....................................................................................................... 33 5.1.2 Summary of findings .................................................................................................... 33 5.1.3 Sub County ranking ...................................................................................................... 33 5.2.1 Food interventions ........................................................................................................ 34 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions .................................................................................................. 35 5.3.1 Food interventions ........................................................................................................ 39 5.2.1 Nonfood interventions .................................................................................................. 40 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest, and Mixed Farming Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county Irrigated Cropping covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 Agro Pastoral persons (2019 Housing and Marginal Mixed Population census, Kenya Farming National Bureau of Statistics). Figure 1: Population by livelihoods The county is divided into six (6) sub-Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are five main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2022 Short Rains Food Security Assessment (SRA) was to conduct an evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2022 short rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment aimed at ascertaining the quantity and quality of the 2022 short rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation, obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs, assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods, assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. The assessment also aimed at taking stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programs that promote preparedness and build household resilience. It also assessed potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2022 Short Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group members who included technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition as well as development partners based at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 9th -27th January 2023. The process began with the administration of the sector checklists followed by the initial CSG meeting whose main agenda was to give the aims and objectives of the assessment. This was then followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tools. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 2.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the short rains season was normal as it was observed during the first dekad of October. In the low land areas that comprises mostly Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones, the amounts received were depressed, ranging from 51-75 and 76-90 percent of normal rains respectively. In the high land areas of Mixed farming livelihood zone, amounts received ranged from normal to slightly above normal (91-125 percent of normal). Rainfall distribution was extremely poor both in space and time. The peak of the season was observed during the first dekad of October and the second dekad of November. Cummulatively, the season had about three to five wet days, mostly in the highlands while spatial distribution was very poor as the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas hardly received any rains during the season under review. The cesation of Figure 2: Rainfall performance the season was observed in the third dekad of December which was normal. 2.2 Insecurity Insecurity incidents happening within the neighboring counties of Elgeyo Marakwet along the Kerio valley and Laikipia have been spilling over into Baringo, causing some tension. The affected areas are Tiaty West sub county and Arabal area in Baringo South Sub County. There have been some tension in Saimo Soi ward caused by migration of Pastoral communities in search of pasture and water. Local mechanisms such as peace meetings in Saimo soi and kerio valley and deployment of Kenya Police Reservist officers in Arabal have been put in place to forestall skirmishes among various communities that may arise due to competition for the scarce pastures and water resources. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Shocks High food commodity prices Food prices continued to be very high during the season under review. Most of the commodities including maize, beans and other pulses had their prices increasing by over 90 percent of their short term average and consequently affecting terms of trade. High farm input prices Prices of farm inputs were very high compared to the previous seasons thus making them unaffordable to the majority of farmers, a factor that contributed to reduced production. Hazards Livestock diseases Sporadic cases of livestock diseases were observed across the livelihood zones and included lumpy skin disease, CCPP, foot and mouth, among others. Most of the cases were being reported in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crops production The short rains in Baringo County play a crucial role in ensuring food and nutrition security, as they supplement the harvest from the long rains and help to recharge water sources for irrigation. However, for the past four seasons, the County has received below-average rainy seasons (both long and short seasons), which has impacted negatively on crop production. The short rains of 2022 were below the long-term average and this coupled with high temperatures affected recharge of water sources for irrigation and the acreage under crop production. Although onset of short rains was normal, the distribution over space and time was very poor. The lack of rainfall has also led to reduced water levels in surface water sources, particularly in rivers used for irrigation. Some rivers have dried up completely and water pans are at less than 15 percent capacity. Crop production is a significant contributor of income and food in the county as shown by table Table 1: Contribution of crops to food and income Livelihood Crop Income Food Agro-Pastoral Maize 10 90 Beans 15 85 Finger millet 40 60 Cowpeas 40 60 Mixed Maize 40 60 Beans 40 60 Finger millet 30 70 Irrigated Maize 80 20 Tomatoes 90 10 Water melons 90 10 Rain fed agriculture The County received below-normal rains during the short rains season which could not support the proper growth of the crops. Due to delayed harvesting of the crop that was planted during the long rains season, many famers did not have enough time to till their land hence resulting in reduced acreage for rain fed crops. The crops in the fields were also affected adversely by the depressed rainfall season, resulting in reduced crop yield as shown in table two. Table 2: Rain fed agriculture Crop Area planted Long-term average (5 2022 short rains Long term average during 2022 year) area planted season production production (5 year) Short rains during the short rains (90 kg bags) during the short rains season (Ha) season (Ha) Projected season (90 kg bags) Maize 112 306 1,520 8,049 Beans 1,462 3,043 12,795 37,275 Irish Potato 1,630 2,234 20,280 32,330 The main crops planted during the 2022 short rains were maize, beans and Irish potatoes. The area planted for maize during the season under review was 37 percent of the long-term average (LTA) and its expected yield is 19 percent of the LTA. Similarly, for beans, the area planted during the season was 48 percent of the LTA and its projected production was expected to be 35 percent of LTA. However, for Irish potato, the area planted during the season was 73 percent of LTA and the projected production is 63 percent of the LTA. In conclusion the farmers will not have any significant harvest if the current hot temperatures continue. Irrigated crop production The area planted for beans, green grams and maize was higher than LTA while the acreage put under tomatoes and water melons was less than the LTA during the season under review (Table 3). The projected production was expected to be less than LTA except for beans and this was caused by reduced river flows which serves as a source of water for irrigation. Table 3: Irrigated Agriculture Crop Area planted Long-term 2022 short rains Long-term average during the 2022 average (3 years) season production production (3 years) short rains area planted (90 kg bagsMT) during short rains season (ha) during short rains ProjectedActual season (90 kg bagsMT) season (ha) Beans 82 27 820 375 Tomatoes 437 470 11316 15280 Water Mellon 116 185 2264 2680 Green Grams 255 167 1822 1627 Maize 50 31 1500 1250 The area planted for beans and Maize during the 2022 short rains season is 304 percent and 161 percent more than the LTA respectively while their projected yield was expected to be 119 and 120 percent of the LTA respectively. For Tomatoes, the area planted during the season was 92.3 percent of the LTA while the projected yield is 74 percent of LTA if the irrigation water is sustained. For watermelon, the area planted during the season was 63 percent of the LTA and the production was estimated to be 85 percent of the LTA. For Green Grams, the area planted during the season was 153 percent of LTA while the projected production is 112 percent of LTA and this was caused by the fact that most of the farmers planted the crop as a cash crop for income. The early planted crop has been harvested while those planted late were affected by reduced water levels in the rivers. 3.1.2 Cereal stocks Table 4 below indicates the stocks of different commodities (maize, rice, sorghum, and green gram) held by different groups in Baringo County. The groups include farmers, traders, millers, food assistance, and the National Cereal and Produce Board (NCPB). The data also provides the current stocks and the stocks held in the long term average (LTA) for comparison. The variation in stocks held at each level was due to a combination of factors including changes in demand, supply, prices, and reduced production. Table 4: Cereals stocks Commodity Maize (Bags) Rice ( Kg ) Sorghum (Bags) Green gram (Bags) Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 428,677 628,340 0 0 2,294 2,518 385 350 Traders 86,151 73,879 23,420 20,000 490 396 150 260 Millers 29,436 13,602 0 0 10 6 0 0 Food 370 650 13,000 8,000 0 0 0 0 Assistance NCPB 0 0 2,115 150 0 0 0 0 Total 544,634 716,471 36,780 28,350 2,794 2,920 535 610 Households: The stocks of maize held by farmers are 428,677 bags, which is 31 percent lower than the LTA of 628,340 bags this stocks are a carry-over from the previous season. However, farmers do not have any stocks of rice as the crop was not planted in the irrigation scheme. Sorghum stocks were below LTA while green grams stocks were above LTA. The reason for the reduced stocks especially of maize was because of poor harvests of the long rains, High cost of farm inputs and also farmers selling the crops to traders and millers. The stocks with the households are skewed with Eldama Ravine having 64 percent of the total stocks held by households. Traders: The stocks of maize held by traders are 86,151 bags, which is 17 percent higher than the LTA of 73,879 bags. Traders also have 23,420 kgs of rice which is 17 percent higher than the LTA of 20,000 kgs, 490 bags of sorghum which is 23 percent higher than the LTA of 396 bags and 150 bags of green gram which is 42 percent lower than the LTA of 260 bags. The traders are holding more stocks of maize and rice due to anticipation of higher demand in the market and also to take advantage of high prices. Millers: The stocks of maize held by millers are 29,436 bags, which is 117 percent higher than the LTA of 13,602 bags. However, millers do not have any stocks of rice and green gram but negligible quantity of sorghum. The high stocks held by millers may be due to an increase in price for maize flour hence more households consuming sorghum flour. NCPB: The National Cereal and Produce Board (NCPB) does not have any stocks of maize, sorghum, and green gram but negligible amount of rice (2,115 Kgs). This could be due to a lack of surplus crops being sold to the NCPB and change of Government policy. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest but for now the available stocks may last for one month in the Mixed farming livelihood zone while in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones there are no stocks. In the Irrigated livelihood zones the stocks can last one and half months. 3.1.3 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The county is known to be long rains dependent for livestock production but the short rains are very important for complementing production of fodder and pastures (hay) for livestock as well as recharge of most water sources. Agricultural by-products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are important as conserved feeds for future use. These by- products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards in the county. The table below (Table 5) shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone Contribution Food Income Mixed farming 25 30 Irrigated cropping 35 15 Agro-pastoral 50 50 Pastoral 70 85 Pasture and browse conditions The present forage condition is fair in both Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and fair to poor in both Agro-pastoral and Pastoral zones. The condition is attributed to below normal OND rains. Both quality and quantity of forage is below normal, attributed to under- performance of both long and short rains of 2022. The pastures are expected to last for two months in Mixed and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and less than one month in Agro-pastoral zone while for Pastoral areas, there are no pastures currently (Table 6). The invasive plants observed were Opuntia ficus-indica, Dodonaea fiscosa, Prosopis juliflora, Acacia reficiens and Panthenium hysterophorus and the most affected areas were Tiaty East, Tiaty West and parts of Baringo South sub counties. Cactus is a very important plant and can be utilized by farmers as forage if prepared properly. The sector is advised to enhance capacity strengthening to the communities on maintenance and utilization of Prosopis species and cactus (Opuntia ficus-indica). The invasive species may have adverse effects to pasture and browse as they are smothering the growth of pasture species that are palatable to livestock. Presently the factors limiting forage access are persistent insecurity tensions around Saimo Soi, Bartabwa, Arabal and Kapedo and Kerio Valley areas. Table 6: Forage conditions Livelihoo Pasture Browse d Zone Condition Projected Factors Condition Projected Factors Duration to last limiting Duration to last limiting (Months) access (month) access Curre Norm Curre Norm Curre Norm Curre Norm nt al nt al nt al nt al Mixed Fair Good 2 3 No limit Good Good 2 3 No limit farming to fair Irrigated Fair Good 2 3 No limit Good Good 2 3 No limit cropping to fair Agro- Fair to Good 1 3 No limit Fair Good 1 3 No limit Pastoral poor Pastoral Poor Good 0 3 Insecurit Fair to Good 1 3 Insecurit y poor y tensions tensions Livestock feed conservation status The number of bales currently being held in the stores across the county is very low compared to their holding capacities and this was caused by the depressed season which could not support pasture growth (Table 7). The stocks that were carried over from the previous seasons were also depleted and currently the county depends on supplies from the neighboring counties such as Nakuru. The existing stocks are being held by the farmers and their current prices are above the normal prices due to the high demand for feed supplementation, a factor that is limiting their utilization as many farmers cant afford them. Currently there are no significant crop residues for feeding livestock as many farmers did not bother to attempt to plant due to unfavorable season. There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder, but there are institutions doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST. Table 7: Livestock feeds Sub No. of Hay Storage No. of Bales Average Average Comments E.g. county Stores Capacity currently Weight price per percentage held by (Total being held per bale bale (Kshs.) farmers and other number of (in Kgs) Institutions bales) Baringo 20 7,500 580 12-15 350 100 held by farmers South Baringo 10 20,000 300 12-15 350 100 held by farmers ERavine 30 605,000 100,000 15 350 100 held by farmers Tiaty NR NR NR NR NR Free grazing area Baringo 25 280,000 3,400 12-15 350 100 held by farmers Mogotio 8 127,000 10,000 12-15 200-350 100 held by farmers Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed BCS4- BCS5 BCS 4- BCS5 BCS4 BCS5 NA NA farming BCS3 BCS3 Irrigated BCS3 BCS5 BCS3 BCS4 BCS4- BCS5 cropping BCS3 Agro- BCS2 BCS4 BCS3 BCS4 BCS4 BCS5 BCS5 BCS5 Pastoral BCS 2 BCS4 BCS2 BCS4 BCS3- BCS5 BCS5 BCS5 (NB: BCS 1 Very Poor-Very thin, BCS 2Poor, BCS 3Fair, BCS 4 Good, BCS 5 Very Good) The deterioration in livestock body condition was brought about by worsening of quality of forage and increase of trekking distances to watering points following poor performance of both the long and short rain seasons of 2022. Furthermore, the county was unable to realize any crop residues that would have complemented livestock feeding. The deterioration in livestock body condition is expected to continue for the next three months as forage resources get depleted. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Livelihood zone Poor income Medium income households households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 2.32 3 5.5 5.5 Irrigated cropping 2.78 3.5 6.7 6.5 Agro-pastoral 3.80 5 7.9 7 Pastoral 5.50 6 9.62 7 Average 3.6 4.5 7.43 9 Compared to the last assessment, TLUs of poor income households declined from 4.0 to 3.6 while medium income households had stable TLUs. However, the TLUs for both categories were above LTA. The decline in TLUs was attributed by the low livestock birth rates due to underperformance of rains. Milk production and consumption Table 8: Milk production, consumption and price Livelihood Milk Production Milk consumption (Litres) Prices (Ksh)Litre zone (Litres)Household per Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed 3 8 2 5 75 50 Irrigated 3 8 2 5 75 50 Agro- 1 4 1 3 90 60 Pastoral 0.5-1 3 0.5 6 90 60 Milk production and consumption declined across the livelihood zones compared to the last assessment and was below LTA (Table 8). The decrease was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition caused by poor forage quality and quantity as well as increasing distances to watering points. The prevailing high temperatures also affected feed conversion efficient of lactating cows. Milk prices remained above LTA with the highest prices being observed in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones at Ksh 90 per litre. The high prices were as a result of the low supply of milk occasioned by poor milk production. Livestock migration The migration patterns were normal during the review period. The migrations were due to depletion of water sources and insecurity tensions. Livestock animals are being driven from Laikipia nature conservancy towards Lake Baringo and Arabal. Other animals were moving from Tiaty areas towards Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North Sub County. As a result of these migrations, insecurity tensions were reported in Loruk, Kalabata and Kinyach sub-locations. The migrations were triggered by search of pastures by Pastoral communities which are currently in poor condition or depleted while other migrations were triggered by insecurity. Local conflict resolution mechanisms are being deployed by the relevant authorities in order to prevent escalations. Migratory routes included Barketiew-Kerio Valley, Barwessa. Sibilo, Lake Baringo, Solai- Laikipia-Kiptoim-Esageri-Koibatek forest, Mukutani-Rugus and along Lake Baringo shores, Sandai-Chebinyiny-Upper Mochongoi, Loboi-Emsos; Sandai-Kapkuikui, Loboi to Wildlife conservancies, Churo-Laikipia ranches; Churo-Tangulbei-Lake Baringo area, KolloaTirioko- West Pokot-UgandaTurkanaLupeitonLokorin, Silale-Malaso-Turkana border, Kasarani and Tangulbei-Laikipia MochongoiBeyong Malaso(MoruakirinMarti) Projected migration: Outward migration towards the Kerio valley, West Pokot, and Turkana and around Lake Baringo is expected to pick up in the next one month. Internal migrations are also expected to increase in intensity: Areas to watch- Saimo Soi, Lake Baringo areas, Arabal. Livestock diseases and mortalities There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-county though there were normal incidents as shown in Table 9. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there was no reported drought related mortalities in the county. Table 9: Livestock diseases Sub- Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken county lost (Vaccinations) Baringo CCPP Endemic Goats vaccinations Central LSD Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations FMD Kapkelelwa Cattle No action Red Water Lowlands Cattle Tiaty CCPP All wards Goats Not Planned vaccinations by reported communities PPR, LSD Ribkwo, Churo All No report Not vaccinated Eldama FMD Koibatek Cattle Suspected No vaccination reported Ravine Baringo Goat and sheep Losampurpur Goats and 3 deaths No vaccination done South pox sheep CCPP Nyimbei Goats 50 No vaccination done Heart water Bekibon Goats 20 No vaccination done FMD Marigat, Kimoriot cattle No deaths No vaccination done Mange Kapkuikui Goats No deaths No vaccination done LSD Kapkuikui Goat No deaths No vaccination done Baringo CCPP County-wise Goats No deaths 500 vaccinated North (Endemic) PPR Barwessa, Shoats 30 Plans initiated for vaccinations Rabies All wards dogs No deaths 100 vaccinated ECF Kabartonjo, Cattle No deaths 150 vaccinated Kipsaraman Helminths Saimo soi Cattle, sheep, No deaths 8,200 livestock dewormed goats Mogotio FMD Mogotio Cattle No No vaccinations reported Water for livestock Table 10: Livestock water Livelihood Sources Return average Expected duration to zone distances (Km) last Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Rivers, springs, Streams, Rivers, 1-3 1-1.5 1 month Throughout Farming piped water, springs, piped boreholes, water, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, shallow Rivers, shallow 1-3 1-1.5 1 month Throughout cropping wells and springs, wells and springs. bore holes Agro-pastoral Water pans, Streams, water 7-13 4-7 3 weeks 3 months Boreholes, pans, Boreholes traditional river wells Pastoral Bore-holes, water Water-pans, Bore- 7-13 4-7 2 weeks 3 months pans, traditional holes, rivers river wells The average return distances for livestock from watering points to grazing fields increased significantly across all livelihoods and was above the LTA. The Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest trekking distance of 7-15 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distances. The increase in distances was caused by drying up of water pans, and high temperatures that are causing rapid evaporation. Variations in water sources and trekking distance were due to low recharge levels and drying up of most water sources. The water pans recharge levels were at 0-30, which was not normal. Watering frequency Table 11: Watering frequency Livelihood zone Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 7 7 NA NA 7 7 7 7 Irrigated cropping 7 7 NA NA 7 7 7 7 Agro-pastoral 4 7 4 7 4 7 4 7 Pastoral 4 7 4 7 4 7 4 7 Watering frequency declined in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones due to the continued water shortages being experienced in the area following poor performance of the short rains season (Table 11). 3.1.4 Impact on availability The short rains season is normally relied on for complementing food availability in the county through recharge of rivers for irrigation water, water for livestock and humans, enhancing pasture and browse growth as well as supporting limited rain fed crops. The season under review performed dismally, affecting both livestock and crop productivity hence leading to further decline in availability of food stocks and milk. Households are there experiencing shortages in food availability, forcing them to shift to purchasing of food from the local markets at very high prices. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Market operations Main livestock and food markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Majimoto, Emining, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi. Nginyang, kolowa, Kinyach, and Kalabata Markets were disrupted by insecurity but not closed. The markets are operational but the prices remained low for the livestock and high for food items. The markets were less vibrant compared to December 2022 whereby there were less animals and market players which was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition and low demand for livestock. Most of the cereals and vegetables on sale in Mixed and Marginal zones were being sourced from within (Ravine, Baringo Central) with some coming from outside the county. In Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood zones between 85-95 percent are dependent on markets. 3.2.2 Market prices Maize prices g k 80 c ir 40 Figure 3. Maize Prices The average price of a kilogram of maize was retailing at Ksh. 90, an increase of three percent in comparison to the previous month whereby a kilogram was retailing at Ksh 87kg (Figure 3). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 94 percent. The high maize prices were attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets particularly in the Pastoral areas that depend on the neighbouring counties of West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet for supplies. The ongoing security operations coupled by increased cost of transportation driven by high fuel prices has also affected the market prices across livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.90 per kg while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. Goat prices There was a drop of seven percent in the average price of a goat which was at Ksh 2,446 per head, in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 2,635 (Figure 4). The lowest price was observed in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 2,200 while Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had Ksh 2,490 and Ksh 3,000 respectively. The decrease in market prices was influenced by the worsening drought conditions in the county that is affecting the livestock body condition. 3.2.3 Terms of trade The terms of trade were at 27, implying that a sale of one goat was fetching 27kg of maize which was a decrease of 21 percent in relation to the previous month of December (Figure 5) and this could be attributed to improved livestock prices during the month under review. However, the current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 55 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 36 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 24. The continued deterioration of livestock body condition is likely to impact negatively on livestock prices, a factor that will further worsen terms of trade and therefore eroding the purchasing power Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. 3.2.4 Income sources Table 12: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed Farming LZ LZ Livestock Production 88 50 5 23 Food Crop Production - 4 5 5 Cash crop production -- - 59 30 Small Business 1 4 5 7 Casual Waged Labour 1 15 10 20 Formal Waged Labour 1 5 4 5 Poultry Production 2 5 3 1 Fishing - 10 4 - The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, and casual waged labour among others as illustrated in Table 12. However, income earned from sale of livestock declined this season due to depressed livestock market prices following the deterioration of livestock body condition. In the Irrigated cropping zone, sales from tomato crops declined following a market glut. 3.2.5 Water access and availability The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Traditional River wells, Boreholes, lakes and water pans, (Figure 8). Generally, in the Mixed farming and Irrigated farming zones communities have more access to water than in Pastoral livelihood zone. By January, the recharge level of most water pans was 0-30 percent of their normal capacity in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones compared to 70-80 percent normally. However, some area such as Tirioko ward, some pans never recharged due to poor distribution of the rains. The available water is likely to last less than a month as compared to 2-3 months normally. In the Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones the recharge was average at 60-80 percent of normal as compared to 100 percent typically and the water is expected to last 1-2 months. In the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones 80 of the water pans have dried up e.g Chepkalacha, kokwototo, chemoril among others, the remaining have 20-30 percent of the normal capacity such as Tangulbei, Loyeya, Tlingwo, Pombo, Orus etc. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers, traditional river wells in all livelihood zones are below the normal seasonal levels and expected to continue reducing due to high temperatures, high level of utilization and siltation. The level of water in the main rivers are as follows; River Perkerra 20 -340 percent, River kerio 20-30 percent and River Molo River 15 20 percent. Currently, 70 percent of the boreholes are operational in across all livelihood zones (Table 13); however, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electro-mechanical breakdowns for example belatiat bh, radat ws bebogoi bh,KirimBH, Sambaka,Tinomoi,TebeiKatikamuma,Kamakonge,Kapindasum,Bartalo,nasrot,seretion,chesawac h, kresee,ngoron, Loiwat, Akwichatis, Toplen, Sibilo across the county . Table 13:Status of water sources Ward Water No. of No. of Projected Normal of full Locality of Non- Livelihoo Source Norm Current Duration Duration Capacity operational Water d zone (Three al Operatio (Operationa that Recharged by Sources (3) Opera nal l Sources) water last the Rains major tional Sources in months sources Pastoral Bore 65 26 Over 6 Over 6 stable belatiat bh, radat ws Holes Months months bebogoi , bh, Kirim BH, Sambaka Tinomoi, Tebei, Katikamuma,Kamakon ge, Kapindasum, Bartalo,nasrot,seretion, chesawach,kreze,ngoro n,loiwat,akwichatis,topl en,sibilo Water 50 36 2weeks-1 2 3 10-15 pans month Months Rivers 12 10 2weeks-1 3-4 10-20 month Months Agro Bore 4 Over 6 Over 6 stable Kirim BH, Sambaka pastoral Holes Months months Tinomoi, Tebei, , Water 15 11 1-2 Months 3 4 15-20 Pans Months Rivers 16 13 1-2 Months 1- 10 - 20 2Months Mixed Bore 10 6 Over 6 Over 6 stable Farming Holes Months months Springs 15 15 Over 6 Over 6 stable Months Months Rivers 2 2 1-2Months 2-3 30 - 40 Months Irrigated Rivers 4 2 1 -2 Months 2-3 20 -30 weseges, river,Endao Cropping months river and parts of molo river Shallo 6 3 Over 6 Over 6 Reducing w Wells months months Discharge borehol 6 6 Over 6 es months Distance to Water Sources The current return trekking distances to domestic water sources are above the normal at 4-7 km in Pastoral and 3-7 km in Agropastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 2 4 kms. The distances were at 1-4 Km in Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones against the normal distances 0.5 -2Km this was due to drying up of most of the open water sources as result of poor rainfall performance. In pastoral areas of Toplen and Nasorot in Silale; Seretion and Chepanda in Ribkwo; Chesetim, Embositita and Ngoron in Tirioko and Loiwat and Chepturu in Kolowa the households are covering the highest distances of 7-10Km. this is due to non-functioning of the available boreholes. Waiting at the Time Source The current waiting time at the water source in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones was 20 120 minutes and 20-60 minutes as compared to the normal of 10-20 and 10-15minutes respectively. The waiting time at the source in Mixed farming livelihood zone was between 10-30 minutes which is above the normal of 5-10 minutes. The situation is attributed to congestion, low discharge from boreholes and low water volumes at surface sources. The situation is anticipated to worsen due to the ongoing drought spell. Cost of Water and Consumption The cost of water at the source is generally high across all livelihood zones while water from open water sources is free (Table 14). Water price at source in all livelihood zones was Ksh.5-10 against the usual Ksh 3-5. However, the price of water by vendors depends on the distances covered; on average it is at Ksh 20-100 per 20 litres jerrican. In pastoral areas of Toplen and Nasorot in Silale; Seretion and Chepanda in Ribkwo; Chesetim, Embositita and Ngoron in Tirioko and Loiwat and Chepturu in Kolowa 60-70 percent are relying on water vendors. The cost per 20 litre jerrican is between Ksh. 50-100 from the normal of Ksh. 20 due to long distances to water sources and increased fuel prices. Water consumption per person per day is below normal at 15 20 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming livelihood zone ,10-15 and 5-10 litres per person per day in Agro- pastoral and Pastoral zone respectively compared to normal of 20-25 and 15-20 litres per person per day. This was attributed to scarcity water across all livelihood zones. Table 14: Water distance, cost and consumption Ward Return Distance to Cost of Water at Waiting Time at Average Water livelihood zone Water for Source (Ksh. Per Water Source Consumption Domestic Use 20litres) (Minutes) (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 3 - 4 4 7 3 - 5 5-10 10-20 20-60 15-20 5- Agro Pastoral 2 4 3- 7 3 - 5 5-10 10-15 20-45 15-20 10-15 Mixed 0.5 2 1- 4 3 5 5-10 1-2 10-30 20 - 25 15-20 Irrigated 0.5 - 2 1-3 3 - 5 5 3 - 5 10-30 20 - 25 15 - 20 Cropping There was unusual high concentration at the following water points in the county; Kanguria ,kwichatis Wells,NaudoBH ,Chemeri BH,Tangulbei BH, Muiya, Noiywet BH,Nguberet BH,Kiptoim BH,Koitebes WS,Lelen BH,Kamar BH and Magoi, Kisanana BH,Olkokwe,Kamasai and Oldebes BH, Silonga BH, Chemorongion BH and Sirata BH, Ngoswonin and telan 3.2.6 Food consumption Food Consumption Score ts ts p ts ts p ts ts p ts ts p a a o a a o a a o a a o P P r P P r P P r P P r g e g e g e g e A t A t A t A t a a a a g g g g ir ir ir ir r r r r I I I I Acceptable Borderline Poor Figure 4: Food consumption score The proportion of sampled households that did not have acceptable food consumption score (FCS) has been rising steadily during the period under review for the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones (Figure 6). In October, the proportion of households without acceptable FCS in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones was 50 and 30 percent respectively which rose to 69 and 20 percent respectively by January. About 19 percent of the households in the Pastoral zone have poor FCS by January and are likely to rise up due to the prevailing food consumption gaps. 3.2.7 Coping Strategy Coping strategy index Irrigated Agro pastoral Pastoral Households were adopting food consumption based coping strategies mostly in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral zones which included skipping of meals, reduced meal sizes among others. In the Pastoral zone, the CSI has marginally increased from 16 in October to 17 by January, an indication that households are applying more coping strategies in response to the deteriorating food security situation at the household level. Agro Pastoral livelihood zone has been employing the highest coping strategies over the season under review. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity in under five children Under five Morbidity 2018 - 2022 Figure 5: Under 5 morbidity Generally Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) continue to be the leading cause of morbidity in Baringo county (Figure 8). The number of children seen with upper respiratory tract infection in 2021 was higher compared to the other years same period. This year 2022 recorded a slightly lower morbidity compared to 2021 among under five population. Morbidity for General Population General population morbidity 2018-2 022 Figure 6: Morbidity in general population Morbidity in the general population showed a higher caseload in but the same trend as in the children under the age of five years (Figure 9). The higher number of cases of upper respiratory infection could be attributed to low immunity due to deteriorating nutrition situation 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation Immunization Imunization Coverge Measles Rubella 1 OPV 3 Opv 1 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 2021 2022 Figure 7: Immunization coverage Routine data from DHIS indicate that the proportion of children who were fully immunized in 2022 was above the national target of 80 percent (Figure 10). As compared to Oct- December 2021 same period, all antigens were above except OPV 3 which was below coverage in the same period 2021 and 2022, this was attributed to support of more outreaches in 2022. Vitamin A supplentation 2021 -2022 for children aged 6-59 months for July Dec 2022 80.7 was at 80.7 percent, which 80.0 was almost at per with the 75.0 73.3 national of 80 percent (Figure 11). When compared to the same 65.0 period in 2021 against the national target (73.3), the coverage was lower than 2022 2021 the nation target 12 to 59 6 to 59 Figure 8: Vitamin A coverage 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity OUT-PATIENT FEEDING OTP) PROGRAM BARINGO COUNTY O 500 LTM (5-yr average) YEARS 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Figure 9: OTP SUPPLEMENTARY FEEDING (SFP) PROGRAM BARINGO COUNTY LTM (5-yr average) S M 700 Years A R 600 2022 R 2021 P 400 P F 300 2020 Figure 10: SFP Figure 12 and 13 shows that children attending OTP and SFP seems to increase in the year 2022, as compared to the same period 2021. This increase could be attributed to increasing food consumption gaps at the household level. Also it can be noted that both SFP and OTP have steadily increased in the months October and November due to increase in the number of outreaches. UNDERWIGHT TRENS 2028-2022 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 LTA (5-yr average) Figure 11: Underweight The proportion of children (6-59 months) who are underweight are above the long term average (Figure 14), this could be attributed to the decline in nutrition status due to the decrease availability of milk at household level and increase of food prices such as milk and other commonly bought foodstuff. This has led to household reducing the number of meals per day as a form of coping strategy. 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene Sanitation and hygiene Over 70 percent of the Hand Washing household 2021 2022 51.6 48.8 at four 38.8 critical time and out of 22.6 these, 22 percent wash hands with soap and Handwashing with water Hand washing with soap water while Figure 12: Hand washing practices 51.6 percent with water only. Figure 15 shows an improvement in hand washing practices in 2022 compared with 2021; this could be attributed to intervention put in place during COVID 19 intervention period. Latrine coverage Table 15: Latrine coverage Sub County Latrine coverage Livelihood zone July Dec 2022 July to December 2021 Open defecation Coverage Coverage (bushes) Koibatek 85 75 15 Baringo Central 90 46 10 Marigat 50 46 44 Mogotio 5 0 44 44 Baringo North 78 42 36 Tiaty West 3.14 3.14 91.3 Tiaty East 3.14 3.14 91.43 Tiaty sub counties has the lowest latrine coverage and the highest open defecation in the County (Table 15) and this was mainly attributed to the cultural practices and nomadic lifestyle of the community. This has a negative impact on nutritional status and high cases of water related diseases Nutrition status by MUAC The proportion of children (6-59 months) who were at risk of malnutrition according to the Mid upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) was above the long-term average; this follow the same trend as for the underweight (Figure 15) and this could also be attributed to the deteriorating food security situation that include poor availability of milk and decreased number of meals per day as noted during the transect drive 5 15 r 10 3.4 Food security trends Indicator Short rains assessment, Long rains assessment, July, 2022 January, 2023 of maize stocks held 29 by households Livestock body Agro- Poor Agro-pastoral Fair-Good condition (Cattle) pastoral Irrigated Fair Irrigated cropping Fair-Good Mixed Good-Fair Mixed Farming Fair-Good Pastoral-all Poor Pastoral-all species Poor-Fair Water consumption Agro- 10-15 Agro-pastoral 10-15 (litres per person per day pastoral Irrigated 15-20 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Mixed 15-20 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all 5-10 Pastoral-all species 5-10 Price of maize (per kg) 90 86 Price of goat 2,446 2,506 Distance to grazing Agro- 7-13 Agro-pastoral 6-10 Irrigated 1-3 Irrigated cropping 1-2 Mixed 1-3 Mixed Farming 1-2 Pastoral-all 7-13 Pastoral-all species 4-10 Terms of trade 27 29 Coping strategy index County-17 County-16 Agro-Pastoral-25.2 Agro-Pastoral-23 Pastoral-17.8 Pastoral-17 Irrigated Cropping-3.4 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption Acceptable 49 Acceptable 52 score Borderline 38 Borderline 44 Poor 13 Poor 4 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Access Enrolment Table 16: Enrolment Term II 2022 Term III 2022 Enrollment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECD 25,161 25,801 50,962 25,084 25,267 50,351 Primary 75,104 69,963 145,067 74,954 69,710 144,664 Secondary 25,798 25,513 51,311 25,773 25,481 51,254 The slight drop in enrollment in third term for ECD and primary schools is attributed to some factors like; delay in school feeding program supported by the county government, ministry of education and pupils transferring to other schools (Table 16). For secondary schools the change was attributed basically to transfers to other schools Cases of Drop outnon-attendance. Table 17: Dropout rate Dropoutsnon- Term III, 2022) Reasons for Boys Reasons for Girls attendants Dropoutsnon-attendance Dropoutsnon-attendance in Total in Term III Term III ECD 69 92 161 - nomadism - lack of food, - distant schools - insecurity Primary 181 114 295 - psychological trauma - teenage pregnancy teenage - insecurity violence - Nomadism, - chronic illness Secondary 23 21 44 - Lack of school fees - Lack of fees - Indulgence into Boda - Insecurity boda business -teenage pregnancies -Insecurity - early marriages - Child labour - insecurity violence - Truancy Several cases of school dropout were reported during the period under review and most of the students could not be traced. Several reasons behind the dropout are shown in Table 17. 3.5.2 School feeding program Table 18: School feeding program of ISMP Cash CSSMP County Other Total Total Total schools with Transfer ECD types of number No. of number school SMP school of schools of meals feeding beneficiar withou beneficiar program (Please ies of t any ies NOT specify.) School school on school Meals feeding meals Programs progra program in the mme in the county county Level No Bo Gir Bo Gi Bo Gi Bo Gi Bo Gi Bo Gir Bo Gir of ys ls ys rls ys rls ys rls ys rls ys ls ys ls ECD nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil 558 250 25,2 84 67 Prima 55 507 469 3,2 3,4 na na na na na na 509 471 188 209 193 ry 0 67 50 00 00 52 82 87 60 Secon nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil Nil nil nil nil Subtot 55 507 469 32 34 nil nil 509 471 774 460 446 al 0 67 50 00 00 52 82 71 27 Grand 55 97717 6,600 nil 98134 774 90,698 total 0 (boys girls) There were several types of school feeding programs but the main one was intergrated schools meals program targeting 517 schools in five sub counties, but Ravine and Baringo Central sub counties are not benefitting (Table 18). School Feeding Programs available for primary schools and Enduring the season (Term III, 2022) Table 19: School feeding program in term 3 Type of SFP Available Number Number of Learners Effect of Not of affected availabilitynon- availableInadequate Schools Boys Girls Total availability of food on affected learning continuity during the term. County ECD SMP Not available 558 25084 25,267 50,351 No school meals program for ECD Cash Transfer to available 33 3,200 3,400 6,600 Delay in disbursement schools and increase in prices In-kind School Meals Yes, but delayed 517 50767 46950 97,717 Transportation of food Programme items from SCDE stores to each School -delayed disbursement -In adequate supply CommunityParents Not available NA NA NA NA NA Supported SMP Expanded School Not available NA NA NA NA NA Meals Programme PartnersWell-wisher yes 22 2,750 2,904 5,654 Not reliable no supported SMP continuity in supply Table 19 highlights the type of feeding program available in schools during term three and the type and number of schools benefitting from it. School feeding programs were to some extent hampered by logistical challenges such as transport. Water availability in schools during the season Main sources of water in schools where; borehole, river, water pumps, bowsers, taps, water pans and harvested rain water. Table 20 shows the number of schools with access to safe and clean water and schools with functional rain water harvesting infrastructure Table 20: School water availability of schools that had NO of schools that had of schools that had access access to safe water functional rain water- to safe water (functional (functional source within harvesting infrastructure source within 100m radius) 100m radius) (gutters, tanks and taps) ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary 288 310 87 269 350 33 359 327 109 3.5.3 Effects of the season on learning continuity Effect of the season on school infrastructure There was no closure of schools due to the effects of the short rains, no schools were closed temporarily, there were no reported infrastructure destroyed during the season and no schools are currently hosting IDPs Effect of the season on school health and Nutrition during the season. Table 21: Season effect on health and nutrition School category Health issues which affected children during the Did the mentioned issues affect season learning continuity How ECD Common colds, Common colds, reduced enrolment Primary Common colds Common colds Learners health improved. Secondary Common ailments Common ailments Improved health for learners Common colds were the most common during the season under review as shown in Table 21. Health and nutrition interventions Children are being dewormed and given multivitamin A at schools organized by Ministry of Health. There is also enriched school meals with vegetables and fruits. Sanitation and hygiene conditions in schools Table 22:WASH facilities in schools of schools with inadequate functional latrine (i.e. of schools with inadequate or no hand- Pupil toilet Ratio- PtOR of above 1:60) washing facilities ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary 332 260 26 376 299 27 A number of schools did not have adequate WASH facilities as shown in Table 22 and their net effect was as follows, spread of mild illness, students could easily contact diseases, absenteeism, learners take a lot of time queuing in washrooms and ow self-esteem. Girls received sanitary kits during the season provided by the National government. Absenteeism, poor performance and low self-esteem are the effects faced by girls due to lack of sanitary kits in some other parts of the country. There were cases of child labour which were prevalent particular in vulnerable groups, there were occasional cases of sexual exploitation and gender-based violence. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions The long rains season of March to May 2023 will be near normal as per the historical trend and the PSP process Market prices will continue to be abnormal whereby cereal prices will be extremely above LTA while livestock prices will continue to depreciate. Forage conditions will continue to deteriorate further due to moisture stress especially in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral zones Unusual livestock migrations are expected to pick up in the next two months Livestock body condition for cattle will worsen in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral areas, and some mortalities are likely to be reported in the next two months Water access and availability will worsen, with most pans in the Pastoral areas drying up. Household stocks will remain below normal for the next six months due to crop failures witnessed in the county Resource based conflicts are likely to be observed within the known hot spots Market operations are likely to be disrupted by insecurity incidents 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six month February-March-April Most households will continue to rely on markets for food stocks as they exhaust the existing stocks following consecutive crop failures. No significant harvest particularly for maize is expected hence most households will resort to other alternative sources of food through purchases, relief food, gifts among others. The conditions of range land resources including pastures and browse will worsen significantly due to moisture stress, resulting in reduced livestock feed. This will lead to further deterioration of livestock body condition particularly in the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral areas. Consequently, livestock productivity will drop including milk production and live carcass weight. Household herd size are expected to decline slightly as limited livestock mortality will be observed in some pockets of the county (Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones). Market operations are expected to remain near normal though a few will be interrupted but insecurity challenges resulting from resource-based conflict. Food prices particularly for cereals will remain above normal while livestock prices will remain below long term average, and this will lead to worsening of terms of trade hence eroding the purchasing power of Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral households. Water access and availability will continue to worsen as most of the surface- based water sources in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones will dry up, leading to an increase in trekking distances and waiting time at water source. Water consumption at the household level will continue to decline across all livelihood zones while cost of water will go up for vendors as they will have to cover more distances in fetching water. Water quality will continue to deteriorate due to congestion of both humans and livestock at the water sources, a factor that may contribute to increase of water borne diseases. Food consumption gaps will continue to be observed more so in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas, leading to more households drifting to borderline and poor food consumption score bands. Households will be adopting crisis coping strategies to cope with food consumption gaps such as skipping of meals, reduction of meal sizes, borrowing among others. Malnutrition cases will spike up in the next two months due to the reduced quantity and quality of food being consumed at the household level. May-June-July The long rains of MAM are expected to bring some relief in terms of water access and availability and forage conditions. Trekking distances to watering points for both human and livestock consumption are expected to decline, hence saving time for household members which will applied to other productive economic activities. The rains will trigger pasture regeneration hence improve forage availability by July hence initiating recovery of livestock body condition. However, milk production will still be below normal as the body condition will not have fully recovered, hence milk consumption gaps will still be experienced at the household level. Household stocks will have improved marginally but still below LTA by July following an improvement in crop production as farmers will have taken advantage of the MAM rains to plant. Market operations will remain normal and stable. Cereal prices will be expected to be in a declining trend as some households will have started limited harvesting of the MAM crop. Livestock prices are expected to be on an improving trend due to the expected improvement of livestock body condition as well as holding back of animals by farmers for the purpose of fattening and restocking. Terms of trade are expected to start improving by July thus enhancing the purchasing power of the Pastoral households. Household water consumption is expected to be normal following an increase in water availability at water sources while water quality will be better as a result of reduced water contamination due to congestion at watering points. Cost of water will be normal. An improvement in food consumption is expected following improved milk availability and household stocks. Households will adopt less severe coping strategies as households are expected to have improved their food security situation. However, malnutrition status will not have changed much although positive change is expected later in the course of the year. 5.0 CONCLUSSIONS AND RECCOMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall county IPC phase is in phase three (Crisis). Both Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones are in IPC phase three (Crisis) while the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone is in phase two (Borderline). The Mixed farming and the Irrigated cropping livelihood zones are in phase one (NoneMinimal). 5.1.2 Summary of findings Even though the county had acceptable food consumption score at 49 percent, the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest proportions of households not having acceptable food consumption at 60 and 38 percent respectively by December 2022. The Pastoral zone had 44 and 16 percent of the sampled households having borderline and poor FCS. In terms of consumption based coping strategies, (rCSI). About 50 percent of the households were applying stressed coping strategies while the other 50 percent were none coping. On livelihood coping, about 5, 22, 26 and 47 percent of the sampled households in December had emergency, stressed, crisis and no coping strategies. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was 18 percent by December which was above LTA by 65 percent. 5.1.3 Sub County ranking Sub County Rank (Worst Main food security threatContributing factors to best) Tiaty (East and West) 1 Poor rain Water shortage Insecurity Livestock migration Poor pastures High cereal prices Invasive species Baringo North 2 Poor rain Total crop failure Insecurity Malnutrition Poor pastures Livestock in migration Mogotio 3 Poor rains Livestock in migration Crop failure Water availability and Poor pastures access is poor Worsening livestock High food prices body condition Resource based conflict (water) Baringo South 4 Poor rains Poor pastures Poor river recharge Conflict Baringo Central 5 Poor rains High food prices Eldama Ravine 6 Poor rain distribution High Food prices 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions During the season under review, the county received relief food amounting to 2,400 bags of rice (50kg), 4,320 bags of beans (50kg) and 1,200 cartons of corn oil which were distributed across the county. Some cash transfer programs are ongoing. World Food Program is targeting 2, 778 households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household is receiving Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision carried out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, Tiaty West, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000. The Kenya Red cross targeted 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household was receiving about Ksh 5,000 for a period of three months in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) provided cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Give Direct Organization is targeting 2,500 households with a cash transfer program whereby each beneficiary will receive Ksh 110,000 in three tranches. This is a one off program that is expected to last for about four months. 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions Sub Intervention Ward No. of Implementers Impacts Cost Time County beneficiar in terms Frame ies of food Baringo Rehabilitatio Saimo Soi, 4,000 Emergency Increase 69M Nov- June, North, n and Ilchamus, Desert Locust agricultur 2023 South, restoration of Kisanana project al Mogotio livelihoods and Kolowa productivi and Tiaty affected by ty desert locusts ALL Post-Harvest ALL 2000 County Reduced 8.5 2021-2023 Practices (Provided Government Post million (Inputs with WFP harvest supply and Hermetic losses construction bags) especially of stores in Cereal on cereal Baringo stores build North and at Eldama Bartolimo, Ravine Kewangoi and Arama All Encouraging All 2000 County Improve 3M 2021-2023 communities (Provided Government nutritional to plant high with beans WFP in the iron beans and sweet vulnerable and sweet potato communit potato rich in vines) for ies in the Vitamin A bulking county. Baringo Vaccination All 800 HH BCGFAO Boost 30M Jul,2022- South against PPR livestock Dec 2022 Baringo Health Mogotio, Baringo Baringo Provision of 500 HH BCGSHAFS Improve 2.M Jul,2022- North, Galla bucks, K livestock Dec 2022 Baringo Sahiwal bulls productivi South, and Dorper ty Tiaty and rams to Mogotio groups All sub- Capacity All 1000 HH BCG(MOALF Well 1M Throughout counties building of Partners Infirmed staff and Farmers and farmers staff. for best practices Mogotio Construction Mogotio 200 HH BCGDRLSP Improved 5M Jul,2022- of livestock pasture Dec 2022 feed store conservati Tiaty Tirioko Tirioko 120HH BCG 2,682,227 2022- Ongoing West borehole 2023 Tiaty Sugut water Tirioko 100HH BCG 1,500,000 2022- Ongoing West supply (sugut) 2023 project Piping and supply of water from sugut borehole to sugut centre Tirioko Kongor Tirioko 90HH BCG 2,000,000 2022- Ongoing borehole (kongor) 2023 Tirioko Kasongogh Tirioko 140HH BCG 2,500,000 2022- Ongoing borehole (Ngoron) 2023 ngoron kasongogh Tiaty Tuwot Loyamorok 110HH BCG 2,000,000 2022- Ongoing East borehole (Tuwot) 2023 Tiaty Chesirimion Loyamorok 100HH BCG 2,000,000 2022- Ongoing East centre (chesirimio 2023 Borehole n) Tiaty Adomeyon Loyamorok 150HH BCG 1,500,000 2022- Ongoing borehole (Adomeyon 2023 solar ) of metallic water tank, cattle trough and water kiosk Tiaty Katele pan Silale 80HH BCG 3,000,000 2022- Ongoing East dam 2023 of pan dam Tiaty Rehabilitatio Silale 130HH BCG 1,500,000 2022- Ongoing East n of 2023 boreholes, Tiaty Nasorot Silale 85HH BCG 1,000,000 2022- Ongoing East water Pump (Nasorot) 2023 installation and solar panel Tiaty Pkaghit water Kollowa 115HH BCG 1,800,000 2022- Ongoing West pan (Pkaghit) 2023 equipping, solar water pump and pipeline extension Tiaty Kaisakat 100HH BCG 3,500,000 2022- Ongoing West borehole Kollowa 2023 drilling and (Kaisakat) Tiaty Chepkalacha Tangulbei 160HH BCG 3,000,000 2022- Ongoing East borehole (Chepkalac 2023 drilling and ha) (kiosk, solar and tank) Mogotio Equipping of Mogotio 130 HH BCG 4.1M 1 year On Going Ngoswe BH Mogotio Completion Kisanana 490 HH WSTF 15 M 6 Months Ongoing ob (Emsos) Kaindaram Water Project Mogotio Equiping Emining 210 HH BCG 4.5M 6 Months On going Kapchelugun (Kimose) countywi Vitamin A All health 82,268 MOH 2,000,000 Two time de Supplementat facilities, supported by a ion selected UNICEF, year(Malez ECD Helen Keller i Bora and child fund Days) Countywi Zinc All health 75,000 County 800,000 Routine ion health Selected Management 100 health 107,492 County 240,000,06 routines health of Acute facilities department of 00 facilities Malnutrition health all over (IMAM) Surge at 6 supported by the health National county facilities in government, East Pokot UNICEF, WFP, KRC Countywi IYCN All health 107,492 County de Interventions facilities department of (EBF and and health Timely Intro community supported by of units IPC complementa ry Foods) and promotion of Orange flesh sweet potato Countywi Iron Folate All health County Routine ion among ANC health Pregnant supported by Women WVK, UNICEF Countywi Deworming All health 33,683 Routine de facilities Baringo - Parents Kapkelelwa 21,791- Parents Promote Termly central provide , pupils NGOs retention d water, -salawa GOK of learners fuel - Tenges in schools wood, handler s and purchas School meal programme in some schools Marigat PROVISION ALL 26,895 GOKMOE Increase CONTINU OF FOOD pupils enrollmen OS Baringo Provision of All 26,996 GOK Increase Continuous north food pupils NGOs enrolment commodities Mogotio Parents All 23,030 - GOK Promote Termly provided pupils - NGOs retention water, fuel of learners wood, paid in schools food handlers purchased Tiaty School ALL 12,388 GOK Improve termly west feeding pupils NGOs enrollmen program t Tiaty School All 8,167 GOK East feeding pupils NGOs program 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Sub 2022 SRA Food Population Estimated proportion in Wards Estimated proportion in County security rank need of immediate food need of immediate food (Worst to best) assistance () per sub assistance () Per Ward county Tiaty 1 153,347 (55) 84,340 Tirioko 65-75 Kolowa 40-50 Ribkwo 55-65 Silale 50-60 TangulbeiKorossi 30-40 Loiyamorok 55-65 ChuroAmaya 20-30 Baringo 2 104,871 (45) 47,172 Barwessa 60-70 SaimoKipsaraman 40-50 SaimoSoi 80-90 Kabartonjo 0-5 Bartabwa 50-60 Mogotio 2 91,104 (35) 31,887 Mogotio 15-25 Emining 45-55 Kisanana 45-55 Baringo 4 90,104 (32) 28,597 Mukutani 40-50 South (lower Marigat 50-60 Mochongoi,Marigat, Ilchamus 40-50 Mukutani, Ilchamus Mochongoi 30-40 Baringo 5 96,951 (16) 15,110 Kabarnet (salawa) 30-40 Central (Parts of Tenges, Sacho 5-10 Kabarnet, Sacho and Tenges 30-40 Kapropita wards) Kapropita 30-40 Ewalel Chapchap 50-60 Eldama 6 129,535 (5) 6,477 (Urban poor) Lembus 10-20 Ravine Ravine 45-55 (5) 6,477 Lembus Kwen 20-30 (Perkerra, Koibatek wards Koibatek 40-50 and urban poor) Lembus Perkerra 40-50 Mumberesmaji mazuri 10-20 Total population in need of food assistance 220,000 5.2.1 Nonfood interventions Sub County Intervention Ward No. of Proposed Requi Available Time beneficiarie Implementers red Resource Frame s Resou s All Increased access All 8,000 FAO, All Financ Staff 2023- to drought projects in the es 2024 resilient crop department of (Kshs planting materials Agriculture, 20 WFP, SHA millio ALL Increase adoption ALL 8000 National Financ Staff 2023- of climate smart Government, es 2024 technologies County (Kshs especially for Government 10 lowland areas and Millio development n) ALL Supply inputs All 200 Ministry of Financ Staff, 2021- especially drought School Education, es Availabili2024 escaping planting s with Ministry of (100 ty of well materials and farms Agriculture millio fenced fertilizers to and Irrigation, n) farms, Schools and other County institutions of Government Learning for and Learning income development generation and partners food and Nutrition Tiaty Dam construction Kolow 250 County Financ Land 2022- for crop a Government es Availabili2025 production and (Barpel and partners (120 ty livestock watering lo- area Millio Apuket n) Chepk aral, Kapeta upper ALL Reduce post- ALL 2300 County Financ Trained 2023- harvest losses Households Government e 27 staff 2024 implementation of Baringo and Millio development n Baringo -Vaccinations All 50,000 BCG, FAO 5M 0 Jan,2023- North, against LSD, wards Cattle, and other Jun 2023 Mogotio CCPP and PPR 200,000 Development Deworming goats partners -Disease 30,000 0.4M surveillance Sheep Pasroral and Provision of All 2,000HH BCG, FAO, 40M 0 Jan,2023- Agro Livestock feeds wards NDMA Jun 2023 pastoralarea Partners Pasroral and Livestock off-take All 5,000TLU BCGFAOPar 75M 0 Jan,2023- Agro wards tners Jun 2023 pastoralarea All sub- Provisiojn of All 5000HH BCGPartners 8M 0 Jan,2023- counties pasture seeds wards Jun 2023 All sub- Employment of All 6,000HHs BCG 100M 0 Continuou counties addition extension wards s staff to replace retirees -Baringo Establishment of All 4,500HH MOALF 90 M 0 Jan,2023- North strategic livestock wards BCG Jun 2023 -Baringo feed reserves; 12 NDMA(EU) South Partners -Mogotio across 6 sub- Loruk, RenovationConst All 13,000HH BCG, Partners 10M 0 Jan,2023- ruction of wards Jun 2023 livestock Auction yards saimo-soi Desilting of 10 Barket 1200HH BCG, 20M 1-4 months No.water pans iew partners Barwessa Pipeline extension Expan 1500HH BCG 20M 1-6months sion of partners yieldin kapluk teland Ayaty a BHs Bartabwa Equipping of The 1200HH BCG 15M 1-6 months boreholes drilled partners les Kabartonjo Pipeline extension Kabart 2800HH BCG 15M 1-12 onjo partners months Saimo- Pipeline extension Kapter 3200HH BCG 20M 1-12 kipsaraman e,kapc partners months hepkor ,mond oi and kasisit mberes Maji BH water Maji 80HH BCG 5 1 Drilled and Maji project mazuri Community million million capped mazuri Lembus Torongo BH Toron 100 HH BCG 5 1 Drilled and water project go Community million million capped Lembus Kapsigot water Tinet 50 HH BCG 3.5 1.5 31st Kwen project Community million million October. Ravine Kokorwonin Ravin 40 HH BCG 1 1 31stApril. water project e Community million million 2023 Koibatek Lebolos water Sabati 30 HH BCG 1 1 31st project a Community million million October. Lembus Kibias Tolmo Saos 20 HH BCG 1 0.5 31st Perkerra water project Kibias Community million million October. MogotioI Servicing of Comm BCG, NG, 10M 1- 3months pumping units unity RCS, WV, Water WS UNCEF, management NDMA,WFP Emining Servicing and Comm BCG, NG, 6M 1- 3months pumping units WS UNCEF, Kisanana Servicing and Comm BCG, NG, 8M 1- 3months pumping units WS UNCEF, Mogotio Drilling and Across BCG, NG, 100M 1 - 2 yrs Equipping of 5 all RCS, WV, strategic BHs livelih UNCEF, along migratory oods NDMA routes and settlement areas Mogotio Construction and Across BCG, NG, 100 M 1 2 yrs Rehabilitation of all RCS, WV, 4 potential water livelih UNCEF, supplies oods NDMA Mogotio Rehabilitation 4 Across BCG, NG, 300M 1 - 3Yrs water pans, all RCS, WV, Construction of livelih UNCEF, 14 major water oods NDMA,WFP pans and 80 farm ponds Saimo soi Drilling of Ward 3000HH BCG 150M 1-12months boreholes and wide partners expansion of high yielding boreholes and construction of small dams Bartabwa Spring protection Ward 2900HH BCG 120M 1-12months ,tank construction wide partners pipeline distribution ,and construction of small dams Barwessa Drilling of Ward 2500HH BCG 100M 1-12months boreholes wide partners ,Construction of tanks and expansion of the high yielding boreholes Countywide Vitamin A Count 90,449 MOH, Helen 1.5M 0 Jan June Supplementation ywide Keller 2023 (Children 6 International months) Countywide Zinc Count 20,000 MOH 0 July-Dec Countywide Management of Count 8971 MOH 28M 0 Jan - June Acute ywide 2023 No. of Malnutrition children 6 (IMAM) 59 months estimated to malnourish Countywide IYCN Count Health Care MOH, KRC 2.5 M 0 Interventions ywide workers WVK March 2023 complementary Foods) Countywide IYCN Count 41,533 MOH 4.1 M 0 Jan June Interventions ywide 2023 complementary Children Foods) birth 2 years Countywide Iron Folate Count 34576 MOH 5.35M 0 Jan -June among Pregnant pregnant Women women Countywide Deworming Count 83,066 1.66M 0 Jan - ywide children 1 June2023 5 years Countywide Mass screening Count Children County Govt 1.2M 0 March 2023 ywide from hotpot and partners spot Areas Countywide Intensify Mass Count 150 County Govt 3.5M 0 screening and ywide facilities in and partners referrals the County Countywide Provision of food Count Countywide County Govt 28M 0 supplements ywide and partners Countywide Integrated Count 85 hot spots County Govt 12M 0 outreach services ywide and hard to and partners reach sites in 6 sub Countywide SMART Survey Count Countywide MOH, 6.5M 0 To be done ywide UNICEF, the whole KRC, WVK county in Self Help July Aug Africa 2023 Baringo Sourcing of all 7,894 -MOE 8.96M Fuel central affordable meals COUNTY (640 fire to retain learners GOVERNME bags wood in schools NT 50kg - NGAF rice cookin NGOS 6,000 g CBO,S utensil PARNTS 256 s 90kg - sacks Human beans resourc 12,000 es 100kg millet 10,000 bags ,90 maize 6000) Marigat Recommended for All 9921 MOE GOK (1.48M) Fuel Immediatel school feeding County 121 ,bag fire y program government 50kg wood NGOs rice,6 Human Well wishers 000 resourc 60bags es beans 12,000 BARINGO ALL ALL 14826 GOKMOEN Human CONTINU NORTH GOPRIVATE resourcOS SECTORS es KOIBATEK Provision of KOIB 5502 GOK 0.798M Human Immediatel Schools meals ATEK World Food (61 bags resourcy programme. WAR Programme of rice es D 6000 Firewo Beans od furl 6112,0 Mogotio Food All 74221 GOK 1.254M Human Immediatel County (Beans resourcy government 40 bags es Education Rice Firewo partners 360bsg od Parents Maize 93 bags)"
        }
    }
}