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results/eva4b_validation_report.txt

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+======================================================================
+PROJECT CASSANDRA — EVA-4B PHASE 1 VALIDATION REPORT
+======================================================================
+Model: FutureMa/Eva-4B-V2 (4B params, Qwen3 fine-tune)
+Universe: 50 companies (25 problem, 25 control)
+Quarters: 2021q3, 2021q4, 2022q1, 2022q2, 2022q3, 2022q4, 2023q1, 2023q2
+Total Q&A pairs scored: 4299
+
+------------------------------------------------------------
+DISTRIBUTION SUMMARY (company-level means)
+------------------------------------------------------------
+  mean_evasion_rate             : problem=0.0149  control=0.0132  delta=+0.0017
+  mean_intermediate_rate        : problem=0.6153  control=0.6576  delta=-0.0423
+  mean_direct_rate              : problem=0.3698  control=0.3292  delta=+0.0406
+  mean_avg_score                : problem=0.6420  control=0.6264  delta=+0.0156
+  inv_avg_score                 : problem=0.6420  control=0.6264  delta=+0.0156
+
+------------------------------------------------------------
+PER-COMPANY RANKING (sorted by mean_evasion_rate, descending)
+------------------------------------------------------------
+   1. GOOGL  [ctrl]: evasion=0.057  intermediate=0.729  direct=0.214  avg_score=0.563  (8 quarters, 70 pairs)
+   2. WFC    [PROB]: evasion=0.049  intermediate=0.747  direct=0.204  avg_score=0.562  (8 quarters, 97 pairs)
+   3. OPEN   [PROB]: evasion=0.046  intermediate=0.433  direct=0.521  avg_score=0.690  (8 quarters, 64 pairs)
+   4. UNH    [ctrl]: evasion=0.044  intermediate=0.745  direct=0.211  avg_score=0.567  (8 quarters, 92 pairs)
+   5. KHC    [PROB]: evasion=0.042  intermediate=0.690  direct=0.268  avg_score=0.591  (8 quarters, 64 pairs)
+   6. LCID   [PROB]: evasion=0.041  intermediate=0.632  direct=0.327  avg_score=0.615  (8 quarters, 73 pairs)
+   7. AAPL   [ctrl]: evasion=0.038  intermediate=0.828  direct=0.135  avg_score=0.539  (8 quarters, 78 pairs)
+   8. LMND   [PROB]: evasion=0.031  intermediate=0.452  direct=0.517  avg_score=0.694  (8 quarters, 69 pairs)
+   9. EFX    [PROB]: evasion=0.031  intermediate=0.578  direct=0.391  avg_score=0.644  (8 quarters, 139 pairs)
+  10. BYND   [PROB]: evasion=0.026  intermediate=0.591  direct=0.383  avg_score=0.642  (8 quarters, 71 pairs)
+  11. V      [ctrl]: evasion=0.024  intermediate=0.470  direct=0.506  avg_score=0.693  (8 quarters, 84 pairs)
+  12. COIN   [PROB]: evasion=0.022  intermediate=0.591  direct=0.387  avg_score=0.646  (8 quarters, 105 pairs)
+  13. COST   [ctrl]: evasion=0.021  intermediate=0.734  direct=0.245  avg_score=0.590  (8 quarters, 131 pairs)
+  14. TXN    [ctrl]: evasion=0.021  intermediate=0.826  direct=0.153  avg_score=0.553  (8 quarters, 75 pairs)
+  15. PG     [ctrl]: evasion=0.018  intermediate=0.670  direct=0.312  avg_score=0.618  (8 quarters, 111 pairs)
+  16. LLY    [ctrl]: evasion=0.018  intermediate=0.786  direct=0.196  avg_score=0.571  (8 quarters, 119 pairs)
+  17. CRM    [ctrl]: evasion=0.016  intermediate=0.497  direct=0.487  avg_score=0.689  (8 quarters, 49 pairs)
+  18. CAT    [ctrl]: evasion=0.016  intermediate=0.589  direct=0.395  avg_score=0.652  (8 quarters, 121 pairs)
+  19. PARA   [PROB]: evasion=0.016  intermediate=0.676  direct=0.309  avg_score=0.617  (8 quarters, 64 pairs)
+  20. HOOD   [PROB]: evasion=0.015  intermediate=0.517  direct=0.468  avg_score=0.681  (8 quarters, 134 pairs)
+  21. NVDA   [ctrl]: evasion=0.014  intermediate=0.630  direct=0.356  avg_score=0.637  (8 quarters, 70 pairs)
+  22. BA     [PROB]: evasion=0.013  intermediate=0.783  direct=0.205  avg_score=0.577  (8 quarters, 89 pairs)
+  23. MMM    [PROB]: evasion=0.013  intermediate=0.693  direct=0.294  avg_score=0.613  (8 quarters, 89 pairs)
+  24. SHW    [ctrl]: evasion=0.012  intermediate=0.460  direct=0.529  avg_score=0.707  (7 quarters, 157 pairs)
+  25. ADBE   [ctrl]: evasion=0.011  intermediate=0.749  direct=0.240  avg_score=0.591  (8 quarters, 85 pairs)
+  26. GE     [PROB]: evasion=0.011  intermediate=0.738  direct=0.250  avg_score=0.596  (8 quarters, 80 pairs)
+  27. HD     [ctrl]: evasion=0.011  intermediate=0.753  direct=0.236  avg_score=0.590  (8 quarters, 103 pairs)
+  28. MCD    [ctrl]: evasion=0.010  intermediate=0.595  direct=0.395  avg_score=0.654  (8 quarters, 98 pairs)
+  29. DKNG   [PROB]: evasion=0.010  intermediate=0.532  direct=0.458  avg_score=0.679  (8 quarters, 122 pairs)
+  30. ENPH   [PROB]: evasion=0.008  intermediate=0.484  direct=0.508  avg_score=0.700  (8 quarters, 139 pairs)
+  31. ABBV   [ctrl]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.533  direct=0.467  avg_score=0.687  (8 quarters, 95 pairs)
+  32. ADP    [ctrl]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.616  direct=0.384  avg_score=0.654  (8 quarters, 74 pairs)
+  33. ACN    [ctrl]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.663  direct=0.337  avg_score=0.635  (8 quarters, 59 pairs)
+  34. BLK    [ctrl]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.519  direct=0.481  avg_score=0.693  (8 quarters, 39 pairs)
+  35. AMZN   [ctrl]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.795  direct=0.205  avg_score=0.582  (8 quarters, 53 pairs)
+  36. NKLA   [PROB]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.549  direct=0.451  avg_score=0.680  (8 quarters, 61 pairs)
+  37. NKE    [ctrl]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.786  direct=0.214  avg_score=0.586  (8 quarters, 50 pairs)
+  38. JPM    [ctrl]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.383  direct=0.617  avg_score=0.747  (8 quarters, 89 pairs)
+  39. JNJ    [ctrl]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.771  direct=0.229  avg_score=0.592  (8 quarters, 64 pairs)
+  40. INTC   [PROB]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.649  direct=0.351  avg_score=0.641  (8 quarters, 69 pairs)
+  41. MSFT   [ctrl]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.730  direct=0.270  avg_score=0.608  (8 quarters, 63 pairs)
+  42. PLUG   [PROB]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.366  direct=0.634  avg_score=0.753  (7 quarters, 104 pairs)
+  43. SQ     [PROB]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.722  direct=0.278  avg_score=0.611  (8 quarters, 81 pairs)
+  44. SMCI   [PROB]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.914  direct=0.086  avg_score=0.534  (8 quarters, 44 pairs)
+  45. PYPL   [PROB]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.475  direct=0.525  avg_score=0.710  (8 quarters, 57 pairs)
+  46. PTON   [PROB]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.551  direct=0.449  avg_score=0.680  (8 quarters, 74 pairs)
+  47. T      [PROB]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.802  direct=0.198  avg_score=0.579  (8 quarters, 63 pairs)
+  48. W      [PROB]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.638  direct=0.362  avg_score=0.645  (8 quarters, 55 pairs)
+  49. XOM    [ctrl]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.583  direct=0.417  avg_score=0.667  (8 quarters, 103 pairs)
+  50. ZM     [PROB]: evasion=0.000  intermediate=0.577  direct=0.423  avg_score=0.669  (8 quarters, 160 pairs)
+
+============================================================
+TEST 1 (PRIMARY GATE): Mann-Whitney U on mean_evasion_rate
+  H1: problem companies have HIGHER evasion rate
+------------------------------------------------------------
+  U-statistic: 322.5
+  AUC (from U): 0.516
+  p-value (one-sided, problem > control): 0.4244
+  p-value (two-sided): 0.8489
+  Threshold: AUC > 0.60 AND p < 0.10
+  RESULT: FAIL
+
+------------------------------------------------------------
+TEST 2 (INFORMATIONAL): Mann-Whitney U on mean_intermediate_rate
+------------------------------------------------------------
+  AUC: 0.389, p (one-sided): 0.9128, p (two-sided): 0.1806
+
+------------------------------------------------------------
+TEST 3 (INFORMATIONAL): Spearman correlation vs Cassandra composite_4f
+------------------------------------------------------------
+  Matched tickers: 50
+  Spearman r: -0.101 (p=0.4857)
+  Interpretation: ORTHOGONAL (good)
+
+------------------------------------------------------------
+TEST 4 (SECONDARY): Top-10 most evasive companies
+------------------------------------------------------------
+   1. GOOGL  [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.057
+   2. WFC    [PROB]: evasion_rate=0.049
+   3. OPEN   [PROB]: evasion_rate=0.046
+   4. UNH    [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.044
+   5. KHC    [PROB]: evasion_rate=0.042
+   6. LCID   [PROB]: evasion_rate=0.041
+   7. AAPL   [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.038
+   8. LMND   [PROB]: evasion_rate=0.031
+   9. EFX    [PROB]: evasion_rate=0.031
+  10. BYND   [PROB]: evasion_rate=0.026
+  Problem companies in top 10: 7/10
+  Threshold: >= 6/10
+  RESULT: PASS
+
+------------------------------------------------------------
+ADDITIONAL DIAGNOSTICS
+------------------------------------------------------------
+  Quarter-level evasion rate: problem=0.015, control=0.013
+  Quarter-level direct rate:  problem=0.368, control=0.328
+
+  Bottom-10 (most honest):
+     1. ABBV   [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.000
+     2. ACN    [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.000
+     3. ADP    [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.000
+     4. AMZN   [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.000
+     5. BLK    [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.000
+     6. INTC   [PROB]: evasion_rate=0.000
+     7. JNJ    [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.000
+     8. JPM    [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.000
+     9. MSFT   [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.000
+    10. NKE    [ctrl]: evasion_rate=0.000
+
+======================================================================
+VERDICT: NO-GO
+  Test 1 (primary) FAIL
+  Test 1 — MWU evasion_rate: AUC=0.516, p=0.4244 → FAIL
+  Test 2 — MWU intermediate_rate: AUC=0.389 (informational)
+  Test 3 — Spearman vs Cassandra: r=-0.101 (informational)
+  Test 4 — Top-10 problem: 7/10 → PASS
+======================================================================