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"""Projection of a 1T-parameter sparse MoE onto the measured machine.

Methodology: every hardware quantity is measured on the host; the expert-cache
behaviour is modelled with the Che approximation for LRU under an
independent-reference model, *validated against the real OLMoE trace at E=64*
before being extrapolated to the 1T configuration's E=320.
"""
import json, os, sys
import numpy as np

RES = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "..", "results")

# ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1T config
T1 = dict(name="T1-1046B", layers=64, d_model=8192, n_experts=320, topk=8,
          d_ff_expert=2048, n_shared=1, kv_dim=1024, vocab=129280)


def config_params(c):
    attn = 2 * c["d_model"] ** 2 + 2 * c["d_model"] * c["kv_dim"]
    expert = 3 * c["d_model"] * c["d_ff_expert"]
    per_layer = attn + expert * (c["n_experts"] + c["n_shared"])
    total = per_layer * c["layers"] + 2 * c["vocab"] * c["d_model"]
    active = (attn + expert * (c["topk"] + c["n_shared"])) * c["layers"] \
        + c["vocab"] * c["d_model"]
    return dict(total=total, active=active, expert=expert,
                attn_total=attn * c["layers"],
                shared_total=expert * c["n_shared"] * c["layers"],
                routed_total=expert * c["n_experts"] * c["layers"],
                n_slots=c["n_experts"] * c["layers"])


# ---------------------------------------------------------------- cache model
def che_hit_rate(p, capacity):
    """LRU hit rate under IRM via Che's approximation."""
    p = np.asarray(p, dtype=np.float64)
    p = p / p.sum()
    if capacity >= len(p):
        return 1.0
    if capacity <= 0:
        return 0.0
    lo, hi = 1e-6, 1e12
    for _ in range(200):
        t = (lo * hi) ** 0.5
        occ = (1.0 - np.exp(-p * t)).sum()
        if occ < capacity:
            lo = t
        else:
            hi = t
    t = (lo * hi) ** 0.5
    return float((p * (1.0 - np.exp(-p * t))).sum())


def zipf_fit(freq):
    """Least-squares Zipf exponent of a measured popularity vector."""
    f = np.sort(np.asarray(freq, dtype=np.float64))[::-1]
    f = f[f > 0]
    r = np.arange(1, len(f) + 1)
    a, _ = np.polyfit(np.log(r), np.log(f), 1)
    return float(-a)


def zipf_pmf(n, s):
    r = np.arange(1, n + 1, dtype=np.float64)
    p = r ** (-s)
    return p / p.sum()


def distinct_per_layer(p, n_draws):
    """Expected distinct experts touched by n_draws independent selections."""
    p = np.asarray(p, dtype=np.float64)
    p = p / p.sum()
    return float((1.0 - (1.0 - p) ** n_draws).sum())


# ---------------------------------------------------------------- throughput
def io_bandwidth(io, block_bytes, threads=4):
    """Interpolate measured unbuffered random-read bandwidth at a block size."""
    pts = [(r["block_kb"] * 1024, r["mb_s"]) for r in io["random"]
           if r["threads"] == threads]
    pts.sort()
    xs = np.log2([p[0] for p in pts]); ys = [p[1] for p in pts]
    return float(np.interp(np.log2(block_bytes), xs, ys)) * 1e6


def analytic_static(p, cap):
    """Hit rate of a popularity-pinned cache: mass of the top-`cap` slots.
    Exact given the popularity vector (validated to 0.00 pp on the real trace)."""
    q = np.sort(np.asarray(p, dtype=np.float64))[::-1]
    q = q / q.sum()
    return float(q[:min(cap, len(q))].sum())


def hit_rate_for(cfg, cap_slots, zipf_s, bias_pp=0.0):
    """Popularity-pinned hit rate for a configuration with E experts per layer."""
    p = np.tile(zipf_pmf(cfg["n_experts"], zipf_s) / cfg["layers"], cfg["layers"])
    return max(0.0, analytic_static(p, cap_slots) - bias_pp / 100.0)


def project(rate_bits, hit_rate, io, cfg=T1, dram_gb=24.0, vram_gb=3.4,
            batch=1, zipf_s=None):
    P = config_params(cfg)
    Bpp = rate_bits / 8.0
    expert_bytes = P["expert"] * Bpp
    total_bytes = P["total"] * Bpp

    resident = (P["attn_total"] + P["shared_total"]) * Bpp
    vram_free = max(0.0, vram_gb * 1e9 - resident)
    dram_slots = int(dram_gb * 1e9 // expert_bytes)
    vram_slots = int(vram_free // expert_bytes)

    bw = io_bandwidth(io, expert_bytes)
    if zipf_s is not None:
        p = zipf_pmf(cfg["n_experts"], zipf_s)
        u = distinct_per_layer(p, cfg["topk"] * batch)
    else:
        u = cfg["topk"] * batch
    fetch_per_token = cfg["layers"] * u * (1.0 - hit_rate) / batch
    bytes_per_token = fetch_per_token * expert_bytes
    t_io = bytes_per_token / bw
    return dict(rate_bits=rate_bits, hit_rate=hit_rate, batch=batch,
                total_gb=total_bytes / 1e9, expert_mb=expert_bytes / 1e6,
                dram_slots=dram_slots, vram_slots=vram_slots,
                cache_frac=dram_slots / P["n_slots"],
                resident_gb=resident / 1e9,
                io_bw_gbs=bw / 1e9,
                bytes_per_token_mb=bytes_per_token / 1e6,
                tok_s=1.0 / t_io if t_io > 0 else float("inf"))


def main():
    io = json.load(open(os.path.join(RES, "io_bench.json")))
    P = config_params(T1)
    out = {"config": T1, "params": {k: float(v) for k, v in P.items()}}
    print(f"{T1['name']}: {P['total']/1e9:.1f}B total, {P['active']/1e9:.1f}B active/token, "
          f"{P['n_slots']} expert slots")

    # ---- cache-capacity amplification from quantisation
    amp = []
    for r in [16, 4, 3, 2, 1.5, 1.0]:
        eb = P["expert"] * r / 8
        amp.append(dict(bits=r, model_gb=P["total"] * r / 8 / 1e9,
                        expert_mb=eb / 1e6,
                        dram_experts=int(24e9 // eb),
                        frac=int(24e9 // eb) / P["n_slots"]))
    out["amplification"] = amp
    print("\nrate  model_GB  expert_MB  experts_in_24GB  cache_frac")
    for a in amp:
        print(f"{a['bits']:>4.1f}  {a['model_gb']:8.0f}  {a['expert_mb']:9.2f}  "
              f"{a['dram_experts']:15d}  {a['frac']*100:9.2f}%")

    # ---- cache policy calibrated on the measured trace, then extrapolated
    cp = json.load(open(os.path.join(RES, "cache_policy.json")))
    s_hat = cp["zipf_s"]
    bias = cp["mae_analytic_zipf"] * 100      # Zipf-fit optimism, in points
    out["zipf_s"] = s_hat
    out["zipf_bias_pp"] = bias
    ws = T1["topk"] * T1["layers"]            # per-token working set, in slots
    out["token_working_set"] = ws
    print(f"\nper-token working set: {ws} expert slots; Zipf s={s_hat:.3f}; "
          f"Zipf-fit optimism {bias:.2f} pp")

    rows = []
    for r in [1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 16.0]:
        eb = P["expert"] * r / 8
        cap = int(24e9 // eb)
        h = hit_rate_for(T1, cap, s_hat, bias_pp=bias)
        for B in [1, 8, 32]:
            x = project(r, h, io, batch=B, zipf_s=s_hat)
            x["cap_slots"] = cap
            x["lru_viable"] = cap >= ws
            rows.append(x)
    out["projection"] = rows
    print("\nbits  batch  slots  LRUok  hit%   model_GB  expert_MB  IO_GB/s  MB/token  tok/s")
    for x in rows:
        print(f"{x['rate_bits']:>4.1f}  {x['batch']:>5d}  {x['cap_slots']:>5d}  "
              f"{str(x['lru_viable']):>5}  {x['hit_rate']*100:4.1f}  "
              f"{x['total_gb']:8.0f}  {x['expert_mb']:9.2f}  {x['io_bw_gbs']:7.2f}  "
              f"{x['bytes_per_token_mb']:8.1f}  {x['tok_s']:6.2f}")

    # ---- sensitivity: tok/s across the whole hit-rate range at 1.5 bit
    sens = [project(1.5, float(h), io, batch=1, zipf_s=s_hat)
            for h in np.arange(0.0, 0.99, 0.05)]
    out["sensitivity_1p5bit"] = sens
    json.dump(out, open(os.path.join(RES, "projection.json"), "w"), indent=2)
    print("\nsaved results/projection.json")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()