"""Build the Plotly figures (HTML + raw CSV) for each claim page from summary.json.""" import csv import json import os import numpy as np import plotly.graph_objects as go HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)) RES = os.path.join(HERE, "results") FIG = os.path.join(HERE, "figs") os.makedirs(FIG, exist_ok=True) S = json.load(open(os.path.join(RES, "summary.json"))) LAYOUT = dict( template="plotly_white", width=760, height=460, margin=dict(l=70, r=30, t=60, b=60), font=dict(family="Inter, system-ui, sans-serif", size=13), legend=dict(bgcolor="rgba(255,255,255,0.75)", bordercolor="#d0d0d0", borderwidth=1), ) PAL = ["#3B6FE0", "#E07B39", "#2E9E6B", "#B5446E", "#7A5AC6", "#8A8F98"] # Poster cards need rasters, not interactive HTML. Export at 3x so a ~760px # figure lands ~2280px wide -- above posterly's 1.5x asset floor for a print card. PNG = os.environ.get("CL_FIG_PNG", "") == "1" def save(fig, name, rows, header): fig.update_layout(**LAYOUT) fig.write_html(os.path.join(FIG, name + ".html"), include_plotlyjs="cdn") if PNG: fig.write_image(os.path.join(FIG, name + ".png"), scale=3) with open(os.path.join(FIG, name + ".csv"), "w", newline="") as f: w = csv.writer(f) w.writerow(header) w.writerows(rows) print("wrote", name) def ref(x, y0, slope, x0=None): """power-law reference line through (x0, y0).""" x = np.asarray(x, float) x0 = x0 if x0 is not None else x[0] return y0 * (x / x0) ** slope # ---------------------------------------------------------------- Claim 1 if "claim1" in S: c = S["claim1"] # F1: finite-width remainder vs m r = c["remainder_vs_m"] m = np.array(r["m"], float) fig = go.Figure() fig.add_scatter(x=m, y=r["remainder"], mode="markers+lines", name="|measured − first-order|", line=dict(color=PAL[0], width=2), marker=dict(size=9)) fig.add_scatter(x=m, y=ref(m, r["remainder"][0], -0.5), mode="lines", name="m−1/2 reference (Thm 1, 3rd term)", line=dict(color=PAL[0], width=1.5, dash="dash")) fig.add_scatter(x=m, y=r["remainder_M"], mode="markers+lines", name="residual after using empirical (1/m)WᵀW", line=dict(color=PAL[2], width=2), marker=dict(size=9, symbol="square")) fig.add_scatter(x=m, y=r["first_order"], mode="lines", name="first-order (kernel) term — m-independent", line=dict(color=PAL[5], width=1.5, dash="dot")) fig.update_xaxes(type="log", title="hidden width m") fig.update_yaxes(type="log", title="|train-time forgetting| contribution") fig.update_layout(title=f"Finite-width remainder decays as m{r['slope']:.2f} " f"(Thm 1 predicts −0.5)") save(fig, "c1_remainder_vs_m", list(zip(r["m"], r["remainder"], r["remainder_M"], r["first_order"])), ["m", "abs_remainder", "abs_remainder_empiricalM", "abs_first_order"]) # F2: sampling vs population part of the first-order term, vs n r = c["vs_n"] n = np.array(r["n"], float) fig = go.Figure() fig.add_scatter(x=n, y=r["fo_fluct"], mode="markers+lines", name="sampling part → ηT√(K−k)/(d√n)", line=dict(color=PAL[0], width=2), marker=dict(size=9)) fig.add_scatter(x=n, y=ref(n, r["fo_fluct"][0], -0.5), mode="lines", name="n−1/2 reference", line=dict(color=PAL[0], width=1.5, dash="dash")) fig.add_scatter(x=n, y=r["fo_mean"], mode="markers+lines", name="population part → ηT√(K−k)/(d²·polylog d) [n-independent floor]", line=dict(color=PAL[1], width=2), marker=dict(size=9, symbol="square")) fig.add_scatter(x=n, y=r["measured"], mode="markers", name="total measured forgetting", marker=dict(size=7, color=PAL[5], symbol="x")) fig.update_xaxes(type="log", title="samples per task n") fig.update_yaxes(type="log", title="|contribution to Ftr|") fig.update_layout(title=f"Sampling term ∝ n{r['slope_fluct']:.2f}; " f"population term flat (slope {r['slope_mean']:+.2f})") save(fig, "c1_terms_vs_n", list(zip(r["n"], r["fo_fluct"], r["fo_mean"], r["measured"])), ["n", "abs_sampling_term", "abs_population_term", "abs_measured"]) # F3: sqrt(K-k) r = c["vs_Kk"] x = np.array(r["Kk"], float) fig = go.Figure() fig.add_scatter(x=x, y=r["forget"], error_y=dict(type="data", array=r["sem"]), mode="markers+lines", name="measured |Ftrk,K|", line=dict(color=PAL[0], width=2), marker=dict(size=10)) fig.add_scatter(x=x, y=ref(x, r["forget"][0], 0.5), mode="lines", name="√(K−k) reference", line=dict(color=PAL[1], width=2, dash="dash")) fig.update_xaxes(type="log", title="number of subsequent tasks K − k") fig.update_yaxes(type="log", title="|train-time forgetting|") fig.update_layout(title=f"Forgetting ∝ (K−k){r['slope']:.2f} " f"(Thm 1 predicts 0.50)") save(fig, "c1_vs_Kk", list(zip(r["Kk"], r["forget"], r["sem"])), ["K_minus_k", "abs_forget", "sem"]) # F4: orthogonality control r = c["overlap_control"] fig = go.Figure() fig.add_scatter(x=r["overlap"], y=r["forget"], error_y=dict(type="data", array=r["sem"]), mode="markers+lines", line=dict(color=PAL[3], width=2), marker=dict(size=10), name="|Ftr1,K|") fig.update_xaxes(title="cosine overlap between task-1 and later-task means") fig.update_yaxes(type="log", title="|train-time forgetting|") fig.update_layout(title="Control: relaxing the orthogonality assumption of Thm 1", showlegend=False) save(fig, "c1_overlap_control", list(zip(r["overlap"], r["forget"], r["sem"])), ["mean_overlap", "abs_forget", "sem"]) # ---------------------------------------------------------------- Claim 1 (GD) if "claim1_gd" in S: c = S["claim1_gd"] fig = go.Figure() names = {"n": "vs n (samples)", "m": "vs m (width)", "etaT": "vs T (horizon, η fixed)", "eta": "vs η (T fixed)"} rows = [] for i, (tag, lab) in enumerate(names.items()): if tag not in c: continue d = c[tag] x = np.array(d["x"], float) y = np.array(d["train_forget"], float) fig.add_scatter(x=x / x[0], y=y, error_y=dict(type="data", array=d["sem"]), mode="markers+lines", name=f"{lab} (slope {d['slope']:+.2f})", line=dict(color=PAL[i], width=2), marker=dict(size=9)) rows += [[tag, a, b, s] for a, b, s in zip(d["x"], d["train_forget"], d["sem"])] fig.update_xaxes(type="log", title="parameter, relative to smallest value in sweep") fig.update_yaxes(type="log", title="|train-time forgetting| of task 1") fig.update_layout(title="Full GD (no linearization): forgetting vs each Thm-1 parameter") save(fig, "c1_gd_sweeps", rows, ["sweep", "x", "abs_forget", "sem"]) # ---------------------------------------------------------------- Claim 2 if "claim2" in S: c = S["claim2"] lab = {"prescribed": "Thm 1 regime: n=Θ(d²K), ηT=Θ(d²), m large", "fixed_n": "control: n held constant (violates n=Θ̃(d²K))", "long_train": "control: ηT ∝ d³ (violates ηT=Θ(d²))", "small_m": "control: m = 300 (violates the width condition)"} fig = go.Figure() rows = [] for i, (k, v) in enumerate(c.items()): fig.add_scatter(x=v["d"], y=v["forget"], error_y=dict(type="data", array=v["sem"]), mode="markers+lines", name=f"{lab.get(k,k)} (slope {v['slope']:+.2f})", line=dict(color=PAL[i], width=2), marker=dict(size=10)) rows += [[k, a, b, s] for a, b, s in zip(v["d"], v["forget"], v["sem"])] fig.update_xaxes(type="log", title="dimension d") fig.update_yaxes(type="log", title="|train-time forgetting| of task 1") fig.update_layout(title="Claim 2: forgetting → 0 with d only inside the prescribed regime") save(fig, "c2_regime", rows, ["variant", "d", "abs_forget", "sem"]) # ---------------------------------------------------------------- Claim 3 if "claim3" in S: c = S["claim3"] # The error is identically 0 at every configuration, so a bar chart of it # carries no information. What separates the configurations is the *loss* # half of Theorem 2, which only becomes small at the prescribed horizon. fig = go.Figure() rows = [] for i, etaT in enumerate(sorted({rec["etaT"] for rec in c})): g = [rec for rec in c if rec["etaT"] == etaT] d2 = g[0]["etaT_over_d2"] fig.add_bar(x=[f"n={r['n']}
m={r['m']}" for r in g], y=[r["train_loss_end_max"] for r in g], name=f"ηT={etaT:.0f} = {d2:.2f}·d²", marker_color=PAL[i % len(PAL)]) for rec in c: rows.append([rec["eta"], rec["etaT"], rec["n"], rec["m"], rec["train_err_end_max"], rec["test_err_end_max"], rec["train_loss_end_max"], rec["test_loss_end_max"]]) fig.add_hline(y=0.0, line=dict(color=PAL[5], width=1)) fig.update_yaxes(title="max over K tasks of train loss at wK") fig.update_layout( title=("Claim 3: misclassification error is 0 everywhere (all 32 runs);
" "the loss half of Thm 2 is what needs ηT = Θ(d²)"), barmode="group") save(fig, "c3_loss_vs_horizon", rows, ["eta", "etaT", "n", "m", "max_train_err", "max_test_err", "max_train_loss", "max_test_loss"]) # ------------------------------------------- Claim 3 control: cluster noise if "claim3_noise" in S: c = S["claim3_noise"] rws = c["rows"] sc = [r["sigma_c"] for r in rws] fig = go.Figure() for j, (key, lab, sym) in enumerate([ ("train_err_max", "max train error at wK", "circle"), ("test_err_max", "max test error at wK", "square"), ("train_err_own_max", "max error on own task at wk", "diamond")]): fig.add_scatter(x=sc, y=[r[key] for r in rws], mode="markers+lines", name=lab, line=dict(color=PAL[j], width=2), marker=dict(size=9, symbol=sym)) fig.add_hline(y=0.5, line=dict(color=PAL[5], width=1, dash="dot"), annotation_text="chance", annotation_position="top left") fig.add_vline(x=0.1, line=dict(color=PAL[4], width=1.5, dash="dash"), annotation_text="σ_c prescribed by Thm 1/2", annotation_position="top right") fig.update_xaxes(title="cluster noise coefficient σ_c (σ = σ_c/√d)", type="log") fig.update_yaxes(title="misclassification error", range=[-0.03, 0.58]) fig.update_layout( title=(f"Claim 3 control: relaxing Theorem 2's noise condition " f"(d={c['d']}, m={c['m']}, n={c['n']}, K={c['K']}, ηT={c['eta']*c['T']:.0f})")) save(fig, "c3_noise_control", [[r["sigma_c"], r["seeds"], r["train_err_max"], r["test_err_max"], r["train_err_own_max"], r["train_loss_max"]] for r in rws], ["sigma_c", "seeds", "max_train_err", "max_test_err", "max_own_task_err", "max_train_loss"]) # ---------------------------------------------------------------- Claims 4/5 if "claim45" in S: c = S["claim45"] if "n" in c: d = c["n"] x = np.array(d["x"], float) g = np.abs(np.array(d["gap"])) fig = go.Figure() fig.add_scatter(x=x, y=g, error_y=dict(type="data", array=d["sem"]), mode="markers+lines", name="measured 𝔼[Fk(wK) − F̂k(wK)]", line=dict(color=PAL[0], width=2), marker=dict(size=10)) fig.add_scatter(x=x, y=ref(x, g[0], -1.0), mode="lines", name="1/n reference (Thm 3)", line=dict(color=PAL[1], width=2, dash="dash")) fig.update_xaxes(type="log", title="samples per task n") fig.update_yaxes(type="log", title="delayed generalization gap") fig.update_layout(title=f"Claim 4: gap ∝ n{d['slope_gap']:.2f} " f"(Thm 3 predicts −1)") save(fig, "c4_gap_vs_n", list(zip(d["x"], d["gap"], d["sem"], d["rhs_thm3"])), ["n", "gen_gap", "sem", "rhs_thm3_unscaled"]) if "T" in c: d = c["T"] x = np.array(d["x"], float) g = np.abs(np.array(d["gap"])) b3 = np.array(d["rhs_thm3"]) * d["c3"] b4 = np.array(d["rhs_thm4"]) * d["c4"] fig = go.Figure() fig.add_scatter(x=x, y=g, error_y=dict(type="data", array=d["sem"]), mode="markers+lines", name="measured gap", line=dict(color=PAL[0], width=2.5), marker=dict(size=10)) fig.add_scatter(x=x, y=b3, mode="markers+lines", name=f"Thm 3 bound ∝ ηT (fitted slope {d['slope_thm3']:+.2f})", line=dict(color=PAL[1], width=2, dash="dash"), marker=dict(size=8)) fig.add_scatter(x=x, y=b4, mode="markers+lines", name=f"Thm 4 bound ∝ Σtk (fitted slope {d['slope_thm4']:+.2f})", line=dict(color=PAL[2], width=2, dash="dot"), marker=dict(size=8)) fig.update_xaxes(type="log", title="iterations per task T") fig.update_yaxes(type="log", title="delayed generalization gap / bound") fig.update_layout(title="Claim 5: Thm 4's bound grows far slower in T than Thm 3's") save(fig, "c5_bounds_vs_T", list(zip(d["x"], d["gap"], d["rhs_thm3"], d["rhs_thm4"], d["cum_train_loss"])), ["T", "gen_gap", "rhs_thm3_unscaled", "rhs_thm4_unscaled", "cum_train_loss_task1"]) # ---------------------------------------------------------------- Claim 6 if "claim6" in S: c = S["claim6"] z = np.array(c["train_forget"]) fig = go.Figure(go.Heatmap( z=np.log10(np.maximum(z, 1e-12)), x=[str(m) for m in c["m"]], y=[str(n) for n in c["n"]], colorscale="Viridis_r", colorbar=dict(title="log₁₀|Ftr|"), text=[[f"{v:.2e}" for v in row] for row in z], texttemplate="%{text}", textfont=dict(size=10))) fig.update_xaxes(title="hidden width m") fig.update_yaxes(title="samples per task n") fig.update_layout(title="Claim 6: train-time forgetting over the joint (n, m) grid") rows = [[c["n"][i], c["m"][j], c["train_forget"][i][j], c["test_forget"][i][j], c["gen_gap"][i][j]] for i in range(len(c["n"])) for j in range(len(c["m"]))] save(fig, "c6_joint_grid", rows, ["n", "m", "abs_train_forget", "abs_test_forget", "gen_gap"]) # The claim is about the grid's *shape*, which the marginal slopes read off # directly: a flat slope along one axis is the plateau an additive bound # predicts when that axis' term is not the dominant one. if "marginal_slopes" in c: mg = c["marginal_slopes"] fig = go.Figure() fig.add_scatter( x=[r["m"] for r in mg["vs_n"]], y=[r["slope"] for r in mg["vs_n"]], error_y=dict(type="data", array=[r["slope_err"] for r in mg["vs_n"]]), mode="markers+lines", name="d log|Ftr| / d log n (at fixed m)", line=dict(color=PAL[0], width=2), marker=dict(size=10)) fig.add_scatter( x=[r["n"] for r in mg["vs_m"]], y=[r["slope"] for r in mg["vs_m"]], error_y=dict(type="data", array=[r["slope_err"] for r in mg["vs_m"]]), mode="markers+lines", name="d log|Ftr| / d log m (at fixed n)", line=dict(color=PAL[1], width=2), marker=dict(size=10, symbol="square")) fig.add_hline(y=0.0, line=dict(color="#444", width=1), annotation_text="flat = this axis alone does nothing") fig.add_hline(y=-0.5, line=dict(color=PAL[5], width=1, dash="dash"), annotation_text="−1/2 (Thm 1 n-term)", annotation_position="bottom right") fig.update_xaxes(title="the other axis' value (m for the n-slopes, n for the m-slopes)", type="log") fig.update_yaxes(title="marginal log-log slope") fig.update_layout(title=("Claim 6: n reduces forgetting at every width; " "m alone does not move it")) save(fig, "c6_marginal_slopes", [["vs_n", r["m"], r["slope"], r["slope_err"]] for r in mg["vs_n"]] + [["vs_m", r["n"], r["slope"], r["slope_err"]] for r in mg["vs_m"]], ["direction", "other_axis_value", "slope", "slope_err"]) # ------------------------------------------------- Claim 2 (eta*T consistency) if "claim2_etaT" in S and S["claim2_etaT"].get("points"): c = S["claim2_etaT"] pts = c["points"] ds = sorted({p["d"] for p in pts}) fig = go.Figure() for i, dd in enumerate(ds): sel = sorted([p for p in pts if p["d"] == dd], key=lambda p: p["m"]) fig.add_scatter(x=[p["m"] for p in sel], y=[p["etaT_needed"] for p in sel], mode="markers+lines", name=f"d = {dd}", line=dict(color=PAL[i % len(PAL)], width=2), marker=dict(size=9)) # what the naive "effective horizon eta*T/sqrt(m)" argument would predict sel = sorted([p for p in pts if p["d"] == ds[0]], key=lambda p: p["m"]) mref = np.array([p["m"] for p in sel], float) fig.add_scatter(x=mref, y=ref(mref, sel[0]["etaT_needed"], 0.5), mode="lines", name="m1/2 reference (would break the regime)", line=dict(color=PAL[5], width=1.5, dash="dash")) fig.update_xaxes(type="log", title="hidden width m") fig.update_yaxes(type="log", title="smallest ηT that fits one task") beta = c.get("beta_m") sub = (f"fitted ηTneeded ∝ d{c['alpha_d']:.2f}" f" m{beta:+.2f}") if beta is not None else "" fig.update_layout(title="Claim 2 consistency: does the required ηT grow with width? " + sub) save(fig, "c2_etaT_needed", [[p["d"], p["m"], p["etaT_needed"], p["seeds"]] for p in pts], ["d", "m", "etaT_needed", "seeds"]) # ------------------------------- Claims 4/5: the non-vacuous corner (exp8) if "claim45_nonvacuous" in S: c = S["claim45_nonvacuous"] rows = c["rows"] ms = sorted({r["m"] for r in rows}) ns = sorted({r["n"] for r in rows}) fig = go.Figure() # measured gap: one trace per (m, n); bounds: one trace per (m, n) too, dashed i = 0 for mm in ms: for nn in ns: sel = sorted([r for r in rows if r["m"] == mm and r["n"] == nn], key=lambda r: r["T"]) if not sel: continue col = PAL[i % len(PAL)] i += 1 fig.add_scatter(x=[r["T"] for r in sel], y=[r["gap"] for r in sel], mode="markers+lines", name=f"measured, m={mm}, n={nn}", legendgroup=f"{mm}-{nn}", line=dict(color=col, width=2), marker=dict(size=8)) fig.add_scatter(x=[r["T"] for r in sel], y=[r["rhs_thm4"] for r in sel], mode="lines", name=f"Thm 4 bound, m={mm}, n={nn}", legendgroup=f"{mm}-{nn}", line=dict(color=col, width=1.5, dash="dash")) fig.update_xaxes(type="log", title="steps per task T") fig.update_yaxes(type="log", title="delayed generalization gap / bound") fig.update_layout( title=f"Claims 4–5: at η={c['eta']:g} the bounds are finite — " f"tightest slack {c['tightest']['slack4']:.1f} decades " f"(m={c['tightest']['m']}, n={c['tightest']['n']}, T={c['tightest']['T']})") save(fig, "c45_nonvacuous", [[r["T"], r["m"], r["n"], r["gap"], r["sem"], r["exponent_thm3"], r["exponent_thm4"], r["rhs_thm3"], r["rhs_thm4"], r["slack3"], r["slack4"]] for r in rows], ["T", "m", "n", "gap", "sem", "exponent_thm3", "exponent_thm4", "rhs_thm3", "rhs_thm4", "slack3_decades", "slack4_decades"]) print("\nall figures ->", FIG)