Question: Israel x Iran peace deal in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of Israel and Iran both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two countries that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of a pause in the Israel-Iran military conflict, and be declared through official channels by both countries.

If only one country (e.g. only Israel, or only Iran) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and the Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Israel x Iran peace deal in 2024?


Question: Will Trump do better with LGTBQ voters than in 2020?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

According to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2020 US presidential election, Donald Trump received 27% of the Gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender vote. You can see CNN's exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

This market will resolve to “Yes” Donald Trump's share of Gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender voters is 28% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on Gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the group which most closely matches Gay/LGBTQ voters. If the data for Gay/LGBTQ voters does not include transgender voters, or if there are slight changes in terminology such as labeling the data "Queer voters," this will still qualify for resolution.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.


Question: OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of OpenSea's token is above $1,000,000,000 1 week after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

"1 week after launch" is defined as 12:00 PM ET, 7 calendar days after it launches. For example, if the token launches at 8 PM ET, March 15, then the FDV at 12:00 PM ET, March 22 will be used.

The resolution source for this market is CoinGecko, specifically the "Fully Diluted Valuation" metric.

If OpenSea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.


Question: Will Trump be Speaker by January 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is Speaker of the House in the US Congress for any length of time by January 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may only resolve to "No" once the end date has passed and Trump has not been Speaker of the House for any length of time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump be Speaker by January 1?


Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.40°C?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase of greater than 1.40°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of greater than 1.40°C for October 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for October 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "October" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024.

October 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)


Question: Will 'Wicked' gross between $125-135m opening weekend?

This is a market on how much 'Wicked' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Box Office” tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 22 - 24) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked' (2024) grosses between $125,000,000 (inclusive) and $135,000,000 (inclusive) on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by December 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a negrisk market group over the opening weekend box office figures for 'Venom: The Last Dance'.

'Wicked' Opening Weekend Box Office


Question: Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?

This is a market on whether Ethereum ($ETH) will first reach $2000.00 USD or $4000.00 USD between August 07, 2024, 1 PM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "$2000" if $ETH drops to $2000.00 USD or less first within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to "$4000" if $ETH reaches $4000.00 or more first within the market timeframe.

If the price of $ETH neither drops to $2000.00 or below nor reaches $4000.00 or more within the market timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETHUSDT "High" and "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETHUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first?


Question: U.S. military action against Iran in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 21 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.


Question: Will Trump win 5 swing states?

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins exactly 5 swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of swing states that Trump will win in the upcoming election.

How many swing states will Trump win?


Question: Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China between July 14 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?


Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is the candidate who receives the most votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

In case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate whose last name comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as to who is the winner of the popular vote.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election.

Popular Vote Winner 2024


Question: 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the 2024 United States general elections, the Republican Party wins the Presidency and the Senate, but the Democratic Party secures control of the House of Representatives. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House, Senate, and Presidency in the 2024 US general election. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predictions regarding the balance of power in the 2024 election.

Balance of Power: 2024 Election


Question: Will Berachain launch a token in November?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Berachain (https://www.berachain.com/) officially launches a token between November 1 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Berachain.

This is a market group over when Berachain (https://www.berachain.com/) launches a token.

Berachain token launch wen?


Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 65 and 104 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?


Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 35 and 64 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?


Question: Iran Nuke in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Iran Nuke in 2024?


Question: Will either FL, MN, NH, or TX flip in 2024?

During the 2020 Presidential election the Democratic party lost Florida and Texas and the Republican party lost Minnesota and New Hampshire.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of those states flip, namely if either the Democratic Party wins Florida or Texas or if the Republican party wins Minnesota or New Hampshire in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.


Question: GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 1% (inclusive) and 2% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is $3,200.00 per troy ounce or greater as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

This is a market on the projected closing price of gold at the end of the year 2024.

What Price will Gold close at in 2024?


Question: Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Note: Additional options for the number of named storms can be found here: https://polymarket.com/event/number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season

This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name between 16 and 20 storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names between 16 and 20 storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If 21 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.

Note: Storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it will count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that hasn't been classified yet by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until Dec 1, 3 AM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

This is a market on the total number of named storms that will occur during the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?


Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote and a Republican candidate wins the Presidency in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for the popular vote will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as to who is the winner of the popular vote.

The resolution source for the winner of the Presidency will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

This is a market on predicting which political party will win both the presidential election and the popular vote in the upcoming election.

Who wins Presidency + Popular Vote?


Question: Will Pennsylvania be the closest state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pennsylvania has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will have the closest results in the upcoming Presidential election.

Closest state in the Presidential election?


Question: Who will win white women?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

This market will resolve to “Harris” if Kamala Harris wins a greater share of white female voters than Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump wins a greater share of white female voters than Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris win the plurality of white female voters in the 2024 US presidential election.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on white female voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.

Who will win white women?


Question: Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?

The 2024 Uruguay presidential election is scheduled to be held on October 27, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yamandú Orsi wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the election results from the Uruguayan Government, specifically the Electoral Court (Corte Electoral).

This is a negrisk group over the winner of the 2024 Uruguayan presidential election, scheduled for October 27, 2024.

Uruguay Presidential Election


Question: Will a Democrat win North Carolina Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in North Carolina in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in North Carolina.

Who will win North Carolina?


Question: Trump wins every swing state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins every swing state in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Trump wins every swing state?


Question: Trump blowout victory?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 100 or more electoral votes versus his closest competitor. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors shall have no effect on the outcome.

This market's resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

Trump blowout victory?


Question: Will North Carolina be the closest state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Carolina has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.


Question: Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?

If Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts between 80 (inclusive) and 89 (inclusive) times on X between October 25, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and November 1, 2024, 12:00 PM ET this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1345967072006828033 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

This is a market on the number of tweets posted by Donald Trump between October 25 and November 1.

Donald Trump # of tweets Oct 25 - Nov 1?


Question: Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Michigan in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Michigan.

Who will win Michigan?


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Nevada by 3.0%-4.0%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Nevada in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 3.0% (inclusive) and 4.0% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Nevada for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Nevada has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on the margin of victory in the Nevada elections.

Nevada Margin of Victory


Question: Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Berachain (https://www.berachain.com/) does not officially launch a token between September 23 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain.

The resolution source will be public announcements from Berachain.

This is a market group over when Berachain (https://www.berachain.com/) launches a token.

Berachain token launch wen?


Question: Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?

The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. Senate elections 54 voting Senate members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of Republican Senate seats following the upcoming election.

# of Republican Senate seats after Election?


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 2.5% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: $PEPE vs. $WIF - First to $10B?

This market will resolve to the coin which first reaches $10,000,000,000 or greater fully diluted valuation (FDV) between May 28, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "$PEPE" if the FDV of $PEPE hits $10B before $WIF. This market will resolve to "$WIF" if $WIF hits $10B before $PEPE.

If neither hits $10B before the resolution date, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be whichever token hits 10b first according to each coin's all time high price multiplied by total supply according to CoinGecko: $PEPE (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pepe) and $WIF (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogwifhat).

$PEPE vs. $WIF - First to $10B?


Question: Zircuit airdrop in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zircuit launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Zircuit team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops

Airdrops in 2024


Question: Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in New Mexico in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on who will win the presidential election in New Mexico.

New Mexico Presidential Election Winner


Question: No Ethereum all time high in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) never reaches a price greater than $4,891.70 according to Binance between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.

This is a market on when Ethereum will reach its next all-time high price.

Ethereum all time high wen?


Question: Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is between $2,500.00 (inclusive) and $2,600.00 (exclusive) per troy ounce as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

This is a market on the projected closing price of gold at the end of the year 2024.

What Price will Gold close at in 2024?


Question: Will Texas move right in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of the Republican candidate's percentage of the vote minus the Democratic candidate's percentage of the vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election in Texas is greater than the corresponding margin in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. If the 2024 margin is equal to or less than the 2020 margin, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once the state has certified its votes.

If there is a recount in this state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting which U.S. states will lean more Democratic in the 2024 Presidential election than they did in the 2020 Presidential election.

Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?


Question: Democrats win popular vote by 1-2%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 1% (inclusive) and 2% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Ohio US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Ohio Senate election.

Ohio Senate Election Winner


Question: Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used

Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?


Question: Will Trump say "Capone" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Capone" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Capone" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to famous American gangster Al Capone.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.

What will Trump say during Salem, VA rally?


Question: Will ETH or SOL reach all-time high first?

This market will resolve to “ETH” if Ethereum reaches an all-time high before Solana. This market will resolve to “SOL” if Solana reaches an all-time high before Ethereum.

The resolution source will be Binance, specifically the candlestick high prices for both ETH_USDT (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT) and SOL_USDT (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). The current all-time candlestick highs used for this market for ETH and SOL are $4,868.00 and $259.90 respectively.

If neither ETH nor SOL reach an all time high by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.


Question: Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 30 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend?

This is a market on how much 'Wicked' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Box Office” tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 22 - 24) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked' (2024) grosses more than $135,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by December 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a negrisk market group over the opening weekend box office figures for 'Venom: The Last Dance'.

'Wicked' Opening Weekend Box Office