Question: Will Arizona be the closest state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arizona has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will have the closest results in the upcoming Presidential election.

Closest state in the Presidential election?


Question: Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

This market will resolve to "Kamala" if Kamala Harris is the odds-favorite on Polymarket the day before the election. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Donald Trump is the odds-favorite the day before the election.

The odds-favorite the day before the election will be determined by taking an average of Kamala and Trump's odds in the 12-hour period between noon (12 PM ET) and midnight (12 AM ET) on November 4, 2024.

The average will be calculated using prices in every 10 minute interval within the 12-hour period, and averaging them once midnight has passed.

This market description will be updated with those data points and averages once they have been calculated.

The resolution source for this market is https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024, specifically the markets for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.


Question: COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency (e.g. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, CDC, NIH, etc.) definitively states that the initial COVID-19 virus came from a lab by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?


Question: Will RFK Jr. win 4-5% of the popular vote?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 4% (inclusive) and 5% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

RFK Jr. popular vote share?


Question: Elon Musk arrested in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is arrested between October 24 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. However, official information from the government involved in any action against Elon Musk and information from Musk's legal representatives will also be used.

Elon Musk arrested in 2024?


Question: Will a Democrat win Ohio Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Ohio in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Ohio presidential election.

Ohio Presidential Election Winner


Question: Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Olaf Scholz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time between September 2, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.


Question: Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic candidate for president wins the popular vote in any solid red state(s) in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Solid red states include: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming.

Solid red states are defined using the Cook Political Report's ratings as of this market's inception. Further changes to cook political report's rankings will not be considered for this market.

Individual congressional district electors will not count towards the resolution of this market; only statewide popular vote results will be considered.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
This market may resolve immediately if at least one of the listed states has been called for the Democratic candidate for President by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or if all listed states have been called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?


Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 105 and 154 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?


Question: Will Trump win Iowa by 12+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Iowa in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 12.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Will Trump win Iowa by 12+ points?


Question: Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend?

This is a market on how much 'Wicked' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Box Office” tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 22 - 24) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked' (2024) grosses between $115,000,000 (inclusive) and $125,000,000 (exclusive) on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by December 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a negrisk market group over the opening weekend box office figures for 'Venom: The Last Dance'.

'Wicked' Opening Weekend Box Office


Question: Will the AP call the election on November 8?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press declares a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election on November 8, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

If the AP declares a winner before this market's timeframe, it will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting the exact day the Associated Press will declare the election results.

What day will the AP call the election?


Question: Will Trump win 30% of Black men?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

This market will resolve to “Yes” Donald Trump's share of Black male voters is 30% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on Black male voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.

Will Trump win 30% of Black men?


Question: Winning candidate also wins popular vote?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the Presidency also wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for the popular vote will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as to who is the winner of the popular vote.

The resolution source for the winner of the Presidency will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.


Question: Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is between $2,900.00 (inclusive) and $3,000.00 (exclusive) per troy ounce as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

This is a market on the projected closing price of gold at the end of the year 2024.

What Price will Gold close at in 2024?


Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the 2024 presidential election.

Presidential Election Winner 2024


Question: Will Wisconsin be the tipping point state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wisconsin is determined to be the tipping point jurisdiction in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The tipping point jurisdiction is defined as the jurisdiction that gives the winning candidate the necessary electoral votes to reach or surpass 270 electoral votes when states are ordered by the margin of victory. The margin of victory is the difference in the percentage of votes between the top two candidates. In this ordering, the tipping point state is the one where adding its electoral votes to the cumulative total reaches or exceeds 270 for the first time.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed jurisdiction has certified their votes. For purposes of this market, the jurisdiction is considered won by the candidate who wins the popular vote in that jurisdiction. Faithless electors shall have no effect on the outcome.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once all the listed jurisdictions have certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed jurisdiction before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will be the tipping point in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Tipping Point State in 2024 Election?


Question: Will michi be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if michi (https://dexscreener.com/solana/gh8ers4yzkr3ukdvgvu8cqjfgzu4cu62mteg9bcj7ug6) reaches $1b FDV before all other pump.fun coins. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The market start date is September 26, 2024, 3:00 PM ET.

The resolution source will be dexscreener, specifically the candlestick high prices multiplied by the coin's supply.

If no pump.fun coin reaches $1b between September 26 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

Note: Coins which show a hyper-inflated FDV due to extremely low liquidity will not count for this market group.

This is a market on which Pump.fun coin will first reach a market capitalization of 1 billion dollars.

First Pump.fun coin to 1b?


Question: Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vermont has the largest margin of victory between Kamala Harris and second place candidate of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Kamala Harris loses this state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, this market will resolve to "No".

The District of Columbia will not count.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Kamala Harris and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes for Kamala Harris and for the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting which state Kamala Harris will perform best in during the next election.

Which state will Kamala win by the largest margin?


Question: US inauguration on January 20?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the individual who is certified to have won the 2024 US presidential election is sworn in as President of the United States as-scheduled on January 20, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US inauguration on January 20?


Question: CA-22 election: Salas (D) vs. Valadao (R)

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Salas" if Democrat Rudy Salas wins the congressional election in California's 22nd district.

This market will resolve to "Valadao" if Republican David G. Valadao wins the congressional election in California's 22nd district.

If any other candidate wins the election, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.


Question: Will Trump win 6 swing states?

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins exactly 6 swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of swing states that Trump will win in the upcoming election.

How many swing states will Trump win?


Question: Will a Republican win Maine Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Maine in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Note: This market pertains to the statewide popular vote in Maine for the 2024 US presidential election and does not concern the allocation of district-level electors.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Maine.

Maine Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures St. Michael's church in Pokrovsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by December 31, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET.

The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovsk+Church+Location.png

Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png

Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.2794472,37.1801207,592m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?


Question: Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?

The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. Senate elections 49 or fewer of voting Senate members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of Republican Senate seats following the upcoming election.

# of Republican Senate seats after Election?


Question: Will Binance list $DEGEN in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if $DEGEN (dexscreener.com/base/0xc9034c3e7f58003e6ae0c8438e7c8f4598d5acaa) is listed for spot purchase on Binance.com by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Binance.com, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Binance list $DEGEN in 2024?


Question: Will Florida's abortion protection measure pass?

The Florida Amendment 4, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024), is set to be voted on during the November 5, 2024 US general elections. More information on this initiative can be found here: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_4,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024)

This market will resolve "Yes" if the Florida Right to Abortion Initiative passes as a result of the vote scheduled for November 5, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible media sources regarding this vote, however in case of ambiguity this market may remain open until official state results are released.

This is a market group on whether the following states' amendments on abortion, scheduled to be voted on in the upcoming November 2024 election, will pass.

Which states will pass amendments protecting abortion?


Question: Will Trump win Ohio by 12+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Ohio in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 12.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Will Trump win Ohio by 12+ points?


Question: Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Coinbase 1 minute candle for bitcoin BTC-USD between 1 Jan '24 00:00 and 31 Dec '24 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price of 100,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the BTC-USD "High" prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/BTC-USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

To see the "High" prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value "H" at the top of the chart.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase BTC-USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Note: If it is clear there is a large data discrepancy issue with Coinbase (e.g. BTC only hit 75k on other exchanges but 100k on Coinbase), a consensus of other credible sources may be used.

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?


Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's November 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased by exactly 50 basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for November 6 - 7, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their November meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by December 18, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

This is a market on the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision for November 2024.

Fed Interest Rates

Fed Interest Rates: November 2024


Question: Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Syria between September 12, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Syria, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?


Question: Will Harris win New Jersey by 10+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the popular vote in New Jersey in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 10.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Kamala Harris and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.


Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.29-1.34°C?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase of between 1.29°C (inclusive) and 1.34°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of less than 1.29°C and 1.34°C for October 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for October 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "October" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024.

October 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)


Question: Will Trump win Texas by 10+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Texas in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 10.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in Texas for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Texas has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Will Trump win Texas by 10+ points?


Question: Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the candidate that the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast projects as most likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election wins the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market may only resolve once Polymarket's main U.S. Presidential market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) has been resolved.

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.


Question: US government Bitcoin reserves in 2024?

Senator Cynthia Lummis recently gave an interview where she voiced support for the US federal government acquiring Bitcoin to help bolster the US dollar (see https://x.com/SenLummis/status/1811747346172248262).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between July 11, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US government Bitcoin reserves in 2024?


Question: Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Wisconsin in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on the winner of the Wisconsin presidential election.

Who will win Wisconsin?


Question: Lunchly recall in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lunchly publicly announces a product recall by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement of a recall will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if no recall has taken place.

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Lunchly or MrBeast.

Lunchly recall in 2024?


Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris is the candidate who receives the most votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

In case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate whose last name comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as to who is the winner of the popular vote.

Note: An update may be made to this market to allow for early expiration if the candidate is definitively no longer in contention for the presidency.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election.

Popular Vote Winner 2024


Question: Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between October 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.


Question: Will a Republican win Wisconsin US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Wisconsin US Senate election is a Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Wisconsin Senate election.

Wisconsin Senate Election Winner


Question: 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House

This market will resolve to "Yes" if  as a result of the 2024 United States general elections, the Republican Party wins the Presidency, and secures control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House, Senate, and Presidency in the 2024 US general election. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predictions regarding the balance of power in the 2024 election.

Balance of Power: 2024 Election


Question: Will there be a 269-269 tie in Electoral College?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election results in an Electoral College tie of 269-269 between the top two candidates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Faithless electors will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final Electoral College tally based on the official results for each state and territory.


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1.0%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 0.5% (inclusive) and 1.0% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and AZ?

On October 5, Keith Rabois (@rabois) tweeted "Trump wins PA, MI and GA. AZ too." (see: https://x.com/rabois/status/1842717862684762370?s=46)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.


Question: Will there be 150,000,000-155,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are between 150,000,000 (inclusive) and 155,000,000 (exclusive) votes cast in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a market on the total popular vote count for the U.S. Presidential Election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?


Question: MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?

Microsoft is scheduled to hold a vote for on the "Assessment of Investing in Bitcoin" at their December 10, 2024 shareholder meeting (see: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312524242884/d878959ddefa14a.htm)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft's shareholders approve the "Assessment of Investing in Bitcoin" at the shareholder meeting scheduled for December 10, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the vote does not take place, or if results of the vote are not released by December 31st, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

The resolution source will be official information from Microsoft or filings with the SEC.


Question: Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Chasiv Yar railroad station located on Pryvokazlna Vulytsia by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Chasiv+Yar+Train+Station.png

Chasiv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Chasiv+Yar+Ukraine+Location.png

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.


Question: Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in North Carolina in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in North Carolina.

Who will win North Carolina?


Question: GPT-5 released in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

GPT-5 released in 2024?


Question: GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 2% (inclusive) and 3% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if third party candidates combined receive 2% or more of the total popular vote (including write-ins) in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Third-party candidates refer to any candidates not running as a Democrat or Republican, including candidates running as independents.

This market will resolve based on the percentage of third party candidates out of the total number of votes in the 2024 US Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.


Question: Will Trump say "teleprompter" 3 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "teleprompter" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "teleprompter" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a device used to project a speaker's script onto a transparent panel in front of a television camera lens in such a way that the text remains hidden from the camera.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.

What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?


Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 US Pennsylvania US Senate election is a Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on the winner of the Pennsylvania Senate election.

Pennsylvania Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Alexandr Stoianoglo win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?

The 2024 Moldova presidential election is scheduled to be held on October 20, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandr Stoianoglo wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the election results from the Moldovan Government, specifically the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova (Comisia Electorală Centrală a Republicii Moldova, CEC, https://a.cec.md/).

This is a negrisk group over the winner of the 2024 Moldovan presidential election, scheduled for October 20, 2024.

Moldova Presidential Election Winner


Question: Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between August 2 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2024.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.

Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?


Question: Will Trump win Florida by 12+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Florida in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 12.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Will Trump win Florida by 12+ points?


Question: Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album between September 8 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

The resolution source will be any official Playboi Carti streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.


Question: Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are between 155,000,000 (inclusive) and 160,000,000 (exclusive) votes cast in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a market on the total popular vote count for the U.S. Presidential Election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?


Question: Will the AP call the election on November 7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press declares a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election on November 7, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

If the AP declares a winner before this market's timeframe, it will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting the exact day the Associated Press will declare the election results.

What day will the AP call the election?


Question: Will Trump win 1 swing state?

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins exactly 1 swing state in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of swing states that Trump will win in the upcoming election.

How many swing states will Trump win?


Question: Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties.

A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?


Question: Will 'Wicked' gross between $95-105m opening weekend?

This is a market on how much 'Wicked' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Box Office” tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 22 - 24) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked' (2024) grosses between $95,000,000 (inclusive) and $105,000,000 (exclusive) on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by December 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a negrisk market group over the opening weekend box office figures for 'Venom: The Last Dance'.

'Wicked' Opening Weekend Box Office


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 1.5% (inclusive) and 2.0% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: Democrats win popular vote by 6-7%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 6% (inclusive) and 7% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate from neither the Democratic nor Republican parties wins the 2024 Nebraska US Senate election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Nebraska Senate election.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner


Question: Kemi Badenoch next Conservative party leader?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Conservative Party in the UK following Rishi Sunak is Kemi Badenoch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Conservative Party leader after Rishi Sunak. The primary resolution source will be official government sources; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

If the next leader of the Tories after Rishi Sunak is not known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This is a market on who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party in the UK.

Next UK leader of the Conservatives?


Question: Will Trump say "Hung Cao" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Hung Cao" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.

What will Trump say during Salem, VA rally?


Question: Will New Hampshire be the closest state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Hampshire has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will have the closest results in the upcoming Presidential election.

Closest state in the Presidential election?


Question: Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between July 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations.

Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution.

This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting.

For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.

Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?


Question: Will a Republican win Texas US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Texas US Senate election is a Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Texas Senate election.

Texas Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Trump say "hell" 10 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "hell" 10 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "hell" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a place regarded in various religions as a spiritual realm of evil and suffering, or otherwise an exclamation.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.


Question: Will a Democrat win Colorado Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Colorado in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Colorado.

Colorado Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will Russia capture Siversk before December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Siversk railroad station located off of Zaliznychna Vulytsia by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+train+station.jpeg

Siversk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+location.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/WCVn7wGSy1i289Nw8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.


Question: Who will win late deciders?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

This market will resolve to “Harris” if Kamala Harris wins a greater share of voters who decided in the last month than Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump wins a greater share of voters who decided in the last month than Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris win the plurality of voters who decided in the last month in the 2024 US presidential election.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on voters who decided in the last month this market will resolve to 50-50.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.

Who will win late deciders?


Question: OG Shoots vs. Easy

OG Shoots (@OGshoots) is scheduled to fight Easy (@EasyEatsBodega) on December 7, 2024.

If OG Shoots is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “OG Shoots”. If Easy is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Easy”.

If this fight is declared a draw, or if for any reason the match is not scored, postponed after January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or cancelled, this market will resolve 50-50.

This is a market on the outcome of boxing matches during the Art Basel event.

Crypto Boxing


Question: Another Israeli military action against Iran before the election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between October 27, ET, and November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.


Question: Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin remains the President of Russia without interruption from March 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Russia, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/russia/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.


Question: Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETHUSDT 01 Nov '24 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 2,600.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETHUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETHUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1?


Question: Base airdrop in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Base team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops

Airdrops in 2024


Question: Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually upon agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas begins between December 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming that both parties have agreed to a ceasefire.

This is a market on predicting the timing of the next ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in…?


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 4.0% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Nevada in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 4.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Nevada for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Nevada has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on the margin of victory in the Nevada elections.

Nevada Margin of Victory


Question: Iggy Azalea vs. Profits

Iggy Azalea is scheduled to fight ProfitsOverWages (@_ShaniceBest) on December 7, 2024.

If Iggy Azalea is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Iggy”. If ProfitsOverWages is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Profits”.

If this fight is declared a draw, or if for any reason the match is not scored, postponed after January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or cancelled, this market will resolve 50-50.

Crypto Boxing


Question: Democrat other than Biden wins the Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Democratic candidate other than Joe Biden wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.


Question: Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 2% (inclusive) and 3% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.40°C?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase of between 1.35°C (inclusive) and 1.40°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of less than 1.35°C and 1.40°C for October 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for October 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "October" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024.

October 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)


Question: Will Trump say "Russia" 3 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Russia" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Russia" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country on the European and Asian continents.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.


Question: Democrats win popular vote by 7% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 7% or more when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Will Republicans have 52 seats in Senate after election?

The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. Senate elections 52 voting Senate members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of Republican Senate seats following the upcoming election.

# of Republican Senate seats after Election?


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Michigan by 4.0% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Michigan in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 4.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Michigan for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Michigan has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the margin of victory for the Michigan football team in their next game.

Michigan Margin of Victory


Question: Will Trump say "vote" 30 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "vote" 30 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "vote" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a formal indication of a choice between two or more candidates or courses of action, expressed typically through a ballot or a show of hands or by voice.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump appeals any or all convictions in his New York hush money case. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Trump does not file an appeal by the legal deadline for filing his notice of appeal.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Question: No Solana all time high in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Solana (SOL) never reaches a price greater than $259.90 according to Binance between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.

This is a market on the date when Solana will reach its all-time high price again.

Solana all time high wen?


Question: Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Gaza between October 17 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024?


Question: Will Trump win 7 swing states?

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins exactly 7 swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of swing states that Trump will win in the upcoming election.

How many swing states will Trump win?


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Nevada by 4.0% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Nevada in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 4.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Nevada for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Nevada has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on the margin of victory in the Nevada elections.

Nevada Margin of Victory


Question: Will Trump win 2 swing states?

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins exactly 2 swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

How many swing states will Trump win?


Question: Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Texas US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Texas Senate election.

Texas Senate Election Winner


Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Arizona in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on who will win the presidential election in Arizona.

Who will win Arizona?


Question: Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Texas in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Texas.

Texas Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will the AP call the election by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press declares a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election by November 30, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting whether the election will be called be different dates.

Election called by...?


Question: Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Florida in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Florida.

Florida Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Iowa in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Iowa Presidential Election.

Iowa Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will another state be the closest state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state other than PA, WI, MI, NC, AZ, NV, MN, GA, NH, TX or FL has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in a state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will have the closest results in the upcoming Presidential election.


Question: Will a Democrat win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Florida in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Florida Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.0%-2.5%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 2.0% (inclusive) and 2.5% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory