Question: Associated Press declares winner before 3am on Nov 6?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press declares a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election by November 6, 2024, 2:59:59 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.


Question: Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Arizona US Senate election is a Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Arizona Senate election.

Arizona Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Harris 0.0 (inclusive) and Harris +0.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

This is a market on the polling margin between Trump and Harris on November 4.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?


Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 United States general elections, the Democratic Party wins the Presidency, and secures control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House, Senate, and Presidency in the 2024 US general election. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predictions regarding the balance of power in the 2024 election.

Balance of Power: 2024 Election


Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 4 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 5 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This is a market on the expected number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts occurring within the current calendar year.

How many Fed rate cuts this year?


Question: Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Arizona US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Arizona Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Trump say "Wisconsin" 20 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Wisconsin" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Wisconsin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the US state.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.

What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?


Question: Will another movie gross most in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows any movie other than 'Deadpool 3', 'Joker: Folie à Deux', 'Dune: Part 2', 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga', 'Despicable Me 4', or 'Inside Out 2' as the film with the highest total gross for the year 2024 once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about movies' domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward the movies' gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a market on predicting which film will have the highest box office earnings in 2024.

Highest grossing movie in 2024?


Question: Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.1-0.4 on Nov 4?

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Trump +0.1 (inclusive) and Trump +0.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.


Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 15 and 34 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?


Question: Will Trump do better with men than in 2020 election?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

According to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2020 US presidential election, Donald Trump received 53% of the male vote. You can see CNN's exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

This market will resolve to “Yes” Donald Trump's share of male voters is 54% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on male voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.


Question: NJ-07 election: Altman (D) vs. Kean (R)

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Altman" if Democrat Sue Altman wins the congressional election in New Jersey's 7th district.

This market will resolve to "Kean" if Republican Tom Kean Jr. wins the congressional election in New Jersey's 7th district.

If any other candidate wins the election, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

NJ-07 election: Altman (D) vs. Kean (R)


Question: Will Trump say "Venezuela" or "Venezuelan" 5 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Venezuela" or "Venezuelan" 5 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Venezuela" or "Venezuelan" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the South American country of Venezuela, or things or people from that country.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: Will Berachain launch a token in December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Berachain (https://www.berachain.com/) officially launches a token between December 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Berachain.

This is a market group over when Berachain (https://www.berachain.com/) launches a token.

Berachain token launch wen?


Question: Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Who will win Pennsylvania?


Question: Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Nevada in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Nevada.

Who will win Nevada?


Question: Who will 538 predict to win the election?

This market will resolve to "Harris" if according to FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election .

This market will resolve to "Trump" if according to FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100")


Question: Starmer out as UK prime minister in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 2, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.


Question: Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senatorial elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Nevada US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Nevada Senate election.

Nevada Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Trump +0.5 (inclusive) and Trump +0.9 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

This is a market on the polling margin between Trump and Harris on November 4.


Question: Will Republicans have between 225 and 229 seats in House after election?

The 2024 United States House elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with all 435 seats in the House being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. House elections between 225 (inclusive) and 229 (inclusive) of voting House members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all House elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

# of Republican House seats after Election? (brackets)


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Wisconsin by 4.0% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Wisconsin in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 4.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Wisconsin for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Wisconsin has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the margin of victory in the upcoming elections in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Margin of Victory


Question: Will Trump say "weave" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "weave" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "weave" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to Donald Trump's manner of speech.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.


Question: Will Arizona be the last state to be called by the AP?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arizona is the final state the Associated Press declares a winner for in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No"

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

If the AP has not called multiple states by December 10, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting which U.S. state will be the last to be called in the upcoming presidential election.

Last state to be called in Presidential election?


Question: Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?

The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. Senate elections 53 voting Senate members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of Republican Senate seats following the upcoming election.

# of Republican Senate seats after Election?


Question: Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Wisconsin in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on the winner of the Wisconsin presidential election.

Who will win Wisconsin?


Question: Will a Democrat win Maine Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Maine in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Note: This market pertains to the statewide popular vote in Maine for the 2024 US presidential election and does not concern the allocation of district-level electors.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Maine.

Maine Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will Kamala get more votes than Biden?

According to uselectionatlas.org Joe Biden received 81,286,454 votes in the 2020 Presidential election (see: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala receives 81,286,455 or more votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Kamala get more votes than Biden?


Question: Will Trump say "Teamster" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Teamster" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Teamster" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to either a truck driver or the International Brotherhood of Teamsters labor union and/or its members.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: Will South Dakota's abortion protection measure pass?

The South Dakota Constitutional Amendment G, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024), is set to be voted on during the November 5, 2024 US general elections. More information on this initiative can be found here: https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota_Constitutional_Amendment_G,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024)

This market will resolve "Yes" if the South Dakota Right to Abortion Initiative passes as a result of the vote scheduled for November 5, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible media sources regarding this vote, however in case of ambiguity this market may remain open until official state results are released.

This is a market group on whether the following states' amendments on abortion, scheduled to be voted on in the upcoming November 2024 election, will pass.

Which states will pass amendments protecting abortion?


Question: Will Nevada be the last state to be called by the AP?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada is the final state the Associated Press declares a winner for in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No"

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

If the AP has not called multiple states by December 10, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.


Question: House control after 2024 election?

The 2024 United States House elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with all 435 seats in the House being contested.

This market will resolve to "Democratic" if following the 2024 U.S. House elections, the majority of voting House members are Democrats. It will resolve to "Republican" under the same conditions for Republicans.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the US House is selected following the 2024 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with / intends to caucus with at the time of their election to that position.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2024 US House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2024 election results.

House control after 2024 election?


Question: Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Georgia in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on the predicted winner of the presidential election in Georgia.

Who will win Georgia?


Question: Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between October 25, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?


Question: Will there be 145,000,000-150,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are between 145,000,000 (inclusive) and 150,000,000 (exclusive) votes cast in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a market on the total popular vote count for the U.S. Presidential Election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?


Question: Will FWOG be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if FWOG (https://dexscreener.com/solana/ab1eu2l1jr3nfeft85aud2zgksubam1kr8mr3um2sjwt) reaches $1b FDV before all other pump.fun coins. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The market start date is September 26, 2024, 3:00 PM ET.

The resolution source will be dexscreener, specifically the candlestick high prices multiplied by the coin's supply.

If no pump.fun coin reaches $1b between September 26 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

Note: Coins which show a hyper-inflated FDV due to extremely low liquidity will not count for this market group.

This is a market on which Pump.fun coin will first reach a market capitalization of 1 billion dollars.

First Pump.fun coin to 1b?


Question: Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price greater than $4,891.70 for the first time according to Binance between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.

This is a market on when Ethereum will reach its next all-time high price.

Ethereum all time high wen?


Question: Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Nevada US Senate election is a Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Nevada Senate election.

Nevada Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Harris win Virginia by 6+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the popular vote in Virginia in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 6.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Kamala Harris and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Will Harris win Virginia by 6+ points?


Question: No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's December 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is exactly the same as the level it was prior to the meeting (namely it increased 0 bps). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 17 - 18, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

This is a market on the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision for December 2024.

Fed Interest Rates

Fed decision in December?


Question: Will Republicans have 56 or more seats in Senate after election?

The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. Senate elections 56 or more voting Senate members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of Republican Senate seats following the upcoming election.


Question: Will Alaska be the last state to be called by the AP?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alaska is the final state the Associated Press declares a winner for in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No"

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

If the AP has not called multiple states by December 10, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting which U.S. state will be the last to be called in the upcoming presidential election.


Question: Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between October 27, ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.


Question: Will Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?

The 2024 United States House elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with all 435 seats in the House being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. House elections 230 or more of voting House members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all House elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

# of Republican House seats after Election?


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Arizona by 4.0% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Arizona in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 4.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Arizona for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Arizona has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on the margin of victory for the Arizona election.

Arizona Margin of Victory


Question: Will Spirit win Blast Premier World Final 2024?

Blast Premier World Final 2024 for Counter-Strike 2 is scheduled to take place October 30 through November 3, 2024. Find more information about the tournament here: https://blast.tv/premier/world-final-2024

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spirit wins this tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If this team is eliminated from the competition based on the official rules of the tournament, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the winner of Blast Premier World Final 2024 is not determined by November 24, 2024, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information provided directly from Blast (e.g. https://blast.tv/premier/world-final-2024) and official footage of the tournament, however other credible reporting may be used.

This is a negrisk market group on which team will win the Blast Premier World Final tournament for Counter Strike 2, scheduled to take place over October 30 through November 3, 2024.

CS2: Blast Premier World Final Winner 2024


Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 5 and 14 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?


Question: Will Trump say "unrealized" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "unrealized" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "unrealized" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to profits on investments not yet sold or cashed out.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.


Question: GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 3% (inclusive) and 4% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Trump wins Pennsylvania but loses the Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania and loses the the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race and the state for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.


Question: Kamala wins Pennsylvania but loses the Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania and loses the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race and the state for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.


Question: Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "China" 10 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the East Asian coujntry officially named People's Republic of China.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: Will the AP call the election on November 9?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press declares a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election on November 9, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

If the AP declares a winner before this market's timeframe, it will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting the exact day the Associated Press will declare the election results.

What day will the AP call the election?


Question: Will Biden finish his term?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden successfully finishes his term as President of the United States of America without any interruptions. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve "Yes" until the presidency is successfully transferred from Biden to another person at the completion of his term on January 20, 2025, or until Biden is sworn into the presidency again on that date.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Biden finish his term?


Question: Will Trump say "weave" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "weave" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "weave" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to Donald Trump's manner of speaking.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.

What will Trump say during Salem, VA rally?


Question: Will a Democrat win Alaska Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Alaska in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Alaska.

Alaska Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Wisconsin by 3%-4.0%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Wisconsin in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 3.0% (inclusive) and 4.0% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Wisconsin for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Wisconsin has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the margin of victory in the upcoming elections in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Margin of Victory


Question: Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore depart the International Space Station (ISS) by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The astronauts will be considered to have departed if they are if they are on a spacecraft which has undocked from the ISS and begun its return journey to Earth.

The resolution source will be official announcements from NASA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Question: Will a Republican win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in New Hampshire in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on the winner of the New Hampshire presidential primary election.

New Hampshire Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will a Democrat win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Minnesota in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on who will win the presidential election in Minnesota.

Minnesota Presidential Election Winner


Question: Solana above $170 on November 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOLUSDT 01 Nov '24 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 170.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOLUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOLUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Solana above $170 on November 1?


Question: Macron out as president of France in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be the President of France for any period of time between August 26, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.


Question: Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares Monkey Pox (MPXV) a pandemic between August 8 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Monkeypox pandemic in 2024?


Question: Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase between 1.25°C (inclusive) and 1.27°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly within the stated range for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

This is a negrisk market group on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024.

Global Heat Increase 2024


Question: Will a Republican win Montana US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Montana US Senate election is a Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on the winner of the Montana Senate election.

Montana Senate Election Winner


Question: Will AfD make it into Thuringia or Saxony government?

Elections for the parliaments of two German states, Thuringia and Saxony, are scheduled for September 1, 2024.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party officially joins the state government of either Thuringia or Saxony as part of a governing coalition as a result of the German elections held on September 1, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If both of these elections do not occur by December 31, 2024 ET, or if no new government is formed by that time, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the AfD association for each relevant state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Question: Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

According to uselectionatlas.org there were 158,594,895 votes cast in 2020 Presidential election (see: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are 158,594,896 or more votes cast in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.


Question: Bird flu pandemic in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares H5N1 (bird flu) a pandemic by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bird flu pandemic in 2024?


Question: AP doesn't call the election by November 20?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press has not declared a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election by November 21, 2024, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

If the AP declares a winner before this market's timeframe, it will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting the exact day the Associated Press will declare the election results.

What day will the AP call the election?


Question: Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.

What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?


Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Note: An update may be made to this market to allow for early expiration if the candidate is definitively no longer in contention for the presidency.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the 2024 presidential election.

Presidential Election Winner 2024


Question: Will Arizona be the tipping point state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arizona is determined to be the tipping point jurisdiction in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The tipping point jurisdiction is defined as the jurisdiction that gives the winning candidate the necessary electoral votes to reach or surpass 270 electoral votes when states are ordered by the margin of victory. The margin of victory is the difference in the percentage of votes between the top two candidates. In this ordering, the tipping point state is the one where adding its electoral votes to the cumulative total reaches or exceeds 270 for the first time.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed jurisdiction has certified their votes. For purposes of this market, the jurisdiction is considered won by the candidate who wins the popular vote in that jurisdiction. Faithless electors shall have no effect on the outcome.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once all the listed jurisdictions have certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed jurisdiction before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will be the tipping point in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Tipping Point State in 2024 Election?


Question: Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.

Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Question: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ali Khamenei ceases to be Supreme Leader of Iran of for any length of time between September 30, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Khamenei ceases to be Supreme Leader of Iran for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Khamenei has remained Supreme Leader for the entire duration without interruption.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by the government of Iran, however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.


Question: Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic candidate for president wins the popular vote in any state in the 2024 US presidential election that was won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

States won by Trump in 2020 include: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Individual congressional district electors will not count towards the resolution of this market; only statewide popular vote results will be considered.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
This market may resolve immediately if at least one of the listed states has been called for the Democratic candidate for President by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC or if all listed states have been called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?


Question: Will Trump say "gun" 5 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "gun" 5 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "gun" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a weapon incorporating a metal tube from which bullets, shells, or other missiles are propelled by explosive force.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: Will Trump win Miami?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins the most votes of any candidate in Miami-Dade County in the 2024 Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the margin between the leading candidate and the next candidate exceeds the number of outstanding votes yet to be counted, this market may resolve accordingly.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting of the Miami-Dade county vote tally.

Will Trump win Miami?


Question: Will Nevada be the tipping point state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada is determined to be the tipping point jurisdiction in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The tipping point jurisdiction is defined as the jurisdiction that gives the winning candidate the necessary electoral votes to reach or surpass 270 electoral votes when states are ordered by the margin of victory. The margin of victory is the difference in the percentage of votes between the top two candidates. In this ordering, the tipping point state is the one where adding its electoral votes to the cumulative total reaches or exceeds 270 for the first time.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed jurisdiction has certified their votes. For purposes of this market, the jurisdiction is considered won by the candidate who wins the popular vote in that jurisdiction. Faithless electors shall have no effect on the outcome.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once all the listed jurisdictions have certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed jurisdiction before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Tipping Point State in 2024 Election?


Question: Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska?

This market will resolve to "Florida” if Donald Trump's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Florida is higher than his margin of victory winning the popular vote in Alaska in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve to "Alaska” if Donald Trump's margin of victory winning the popular vote in Alaska is higher than his margin of victory winning the popular vote in Florida in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes received by each Donald Trump and the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in Florida and Alaska each for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

If Donald Trump loses both states, this market will resolve based off the state in which he had a smaller margin of defeat between himself and the first place candidate.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once both relevant states have certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated in either state before certification, this market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.


Question: CA-27 election: Whitesides (D) vs. Garcia (R)

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Whitesides" if Democrat George Whitesides wins the congressional election in California's 27th district.

This market will resolve to "Garcia" if Republican Mike Garcia wins the congressional election in California's 27th district.

If any other candidate wins the election, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.


Question: Will the AP call the election on November 6?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press declares a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election on November 6, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

If the AP declares a winner before this market's timeframe, it will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

What day will the AP call the election?


Question: Will Silver close over $40 at the end of 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Silver Continuous Contract (SIW00) is $40.01 per troy ounce or greater as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Silver Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SIW00:COMEX).


Question: Will Trump win 3 swing states?

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins exactly 3 swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of swing states that Trump will win in the upcoming election.

How many swing states will Trump win?


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.0%-1.5%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 1.0% (inclusive) and 1.5% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: Who will win Erie county?

This market will resolve to "Harris" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Erie county, PA, in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to "Trump" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in  Erie county, PA, in the 2024 US presidential election.

If neither a  Democratic or Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Erie county, PA, in the 2024 US presidential election this market will resolve to 50-50.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

If the margin between the leading candidate and the next candidate exceeds the number of outstanding votes (including mail-in) yet to be counted, this market may resolve accordingly.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting of the Erie county vote tally.

This is a market on the outcome of elections in key swing districts that could determine control of Congress.

Who will win each swing district?


Question: Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Question: Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.


Question: Will the US add more than 250,000 jobs in October?

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 254,000 in August 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains more than 250,000 in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September, scheduled to be released on November 1, 2024, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

This is a negrisk group over how many jobs the United States will add in October according to the BLS.

Jobs Added

How many jobs added in October?


Question: Will a Democrat win New Mexico Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in New Mexico in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on who will win the presidential election in New Mexico.

New Mexico Presidential Election Winner


Question: Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

The 2024 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2024 election.

The main resolution sources for this market will be  (https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/results), (http://whitehouse.gov/) and (https://www.fec.gov/). Further official, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions may also be considered to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.

If another party wins other than Democratic or Republican, the market will resolve 50/50.


Question: Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.


Question: Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a motion of no confidence passes in the Canadian House of Commons between September 3 and December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Motions of no confidence that are voted on but do not pass the House of Commons will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Question: Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "border" 30 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a political boundary between nations.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 0%-0.5%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 0% (exclusive) and 0.5% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: Will RFK Jr. win <1% of the popular vote?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

RFK Jr. popular vote share?


Question: Democrats win popular vote by 5-6%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 5% (inclusive) and 6% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Texas in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Texas.

Texas Presidential Election Winner


Question: Bitcoin new all time high in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price greater than $73,777.00 for the first time according to Binance between September 20, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.

Bitcoin new all time high in 2024?


Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 15 and 34 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?


Question: Will Alaska move right in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of the Republican candidate's percentage of the vote minus the Democratic candidate's percentage of the vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election in Alaska is greater than the corresponding margin in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. If the 2024 margin is equal to or less than the 2020 margin, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once the state has certified its votes.

If there is a recount in this state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting which U.S. states will lean more Democratic in the 2024 Presidential election than they did in the 2020 Presidential election.

Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?


Question: Farcaster airdrop in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farcaster launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Farcaster team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops

Airdrops in 2024


Question: Will Trump say "cognitively impaired" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "cognitively impaired" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.


Question: Trump nominates Tulsi Gabbard to Cabinet?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and nominates Tulsi Gabbard for a Cabinet position by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Question: Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Michigan in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Michigan.

Who will win Michigan?


Question: Will Trump say "tampon" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tampon" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the feminine hygiene product.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris wins every swing state in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.