Question: Trump gets more black voters than in 2020?

According to the CNN exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election, Donald Trump received 12% of the Black vote. You can see CNN's exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's share of African American or Black voters is 13% or greater in 2024 US presidential election according to available exit polling information from CNN provided on their website as of November 6, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump drops out of the race at any point, or faces any extenuating circumstances that prevents him from continuing the race, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be exit polls from CNN. If CNN has not made exit poll information available online by this market's end time, this market will stay open until it has been released/published. If the exit poll information has not been published by November 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, exit polls from CBS will be used instead (data from the 2024 CBS exit poll will be compared to the 2020 CBS exit poll).

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.


Question: Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Virginia in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Virginia presidential election.

Virginia Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 3 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 3 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 4 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This is a market on the expected number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts occurring within the current calendar year.

How many Fed rate cuts this year?


Question: Will Berachain launch in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Berachain (https://twitter.com/berachain) officially launches a token between September 29 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Token launch means the token must be publicly announced and transferable.

The resolution source will be public announcements from Berachain.

Will Berachain launch in 2024?


Question: Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Ohio in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Ohio presidential election.

Ohio Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Georgia in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on the predicted winner of the presidential election in Georgia.

Who will win Georgia?


Question: Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after election?

The 2024 United States House elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with all 435 seats in the House being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. House elections between 220 (inclusive) and 224 (inclusive) of voting House members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all House elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

# of Republican House seats after Election? (brackets)


Question: WA-03 election: Glusenkamp Perez (D) vs. Kent (R)

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Perez" if Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez wins the congressional election in Washington's 3rd district.

This market will resolve to "Kent" if Republican John Kent wins the congressional election in Washington's 3rd district.

If any other candidate wins the election, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.


Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hyperliquid (https://hyperliquid.xyz/) officially launches a token between December 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Token launch means the token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Hyperliquid.

This is a market group over when Hyperliquid (https://hyperliquid.xyz/) launches a token.

Hyperliquid token launch wen?


Question: Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris individually or Donald Trump individually win every swing state in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.


Question: AK-1 election: Peltola (D) vs. Begich (R)

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Peltola" if Democrat Mary Peltola wins the congressional election in Alaska's at large district.

This market will resolve to "Begich" if Republican Nicholas Begich wins the congressional election in Alaska's at large district.

If any other candidate wins the election, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.


Question: Will Trump win Wyoming by the largest margin?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wyoming has the largest margin of victory between Donald Trump and second place candidate of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump loses this state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, this market will resolve to "No".

The District of Columbia will not count.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes for Donald Trump and for the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting which state Donald Trump will win by the largest margin in the upcoming election.

Which state will Trump win by the largest margin?


Question: East coast port strike in January?

On October 3, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) announced that it had reached a deal to suspend its three-day strike until Jan. 15 to provide time to negotiate a new contract (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/port-strike-ends-tentative-deal-until-jan-15-dockworkers/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ILA or its leadership declares or announces a strike affecting any US East Coast or Gulf Coast port at any point in January 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the ILA announces a new deal which would avert any US East Coast or Gulf Coast port strike through January of 2025, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the ILA however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

East coast port strike in January?


Question: US bank failure before December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between October 22, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ however other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

US bank failure before December?


Question: Berachain airdrop in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Berachain launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Berachain team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops

Airdrops in 2024


Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 65-104

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 65 and 104 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?


Question: GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced.

GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.

This is a market on the predicted announcement date of GPT-5.

When will GPT-5 be announced?


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 2.0%-3.0%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Nevada in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 2.0% (inclusive) and 3.0% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Nevada for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Nevada has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on the margin of victory in the Nevada elections.

Nevada Margin of Victory


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 0%-0.5%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 0% (inclusive) and 0.5% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 0% (exclusive) and 1% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Will Trump say "Mars" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Mars" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Mars" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the fourth planet from the Sun.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.

What will Trump say during Salem, VA rally?


Question: Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if founder of Silk Road Ross William Ulbricht, aka Dread Pirate Roberts, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joe Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on predicting which individuals President Biden will grant pardons to.

Who will Biden pardon?


Question: Will another Pump.fun coin be first to $1b?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Pump.fun coin other than michi, Moo Deng, MOTHER, DADDY, FWOG, or BILLY reaches $1b before they do. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The market start date is September 26, 2024, 3:00 PM ET.

The resolution source will be dexscreener, specifically the candlestick high prices multiplied by the coin's supply.

If no pump.fun coin reaches $1b between September 26 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Yes", and all other markets in the group will resolve to "No."

Note: Coins which show a hyper-inflated FDV due to extremely low liquidity will not count for this market group.

This is a market on which Pump.fun coin will first reach a market capitalization of 1 billion dollars.

First Pump.fun coin to 1b?


Question: Eric Adams out as NYC mayor before 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Adams announces that he will resign from his position as Mayor of New York City, or otherwise ceases to be Mayor for any length of time, between September 11, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New York or official statements by Eric Adams or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.


Question: Will Michigan be the tipping point state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michigan is determined to be the tipping point jurisdiction in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The tipping point jurisdiction is defined as the jurisdiction that gives the winning candidate the necessary electoral votes to reach or surpass 270 electoral votes when states are ordered by the margin of victory. The margin of victory is the difference in the percentage of votes between the top two candidates. In this ordering, the tipping point state is the one where adding its electoral votes to the cumulative total reaches or exceeds 270 for the first time.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed jurisdiction has certified their votes. For purposes of this market, the jurisdiction is considered won by the candidate who wins the popular vote in that jurisdiction. Faithless electors shall have no effect on the outcome.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once all the listed jurisdictions have certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed jurisdiction before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will be the tipping point in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Tipping Point State in 2024 Election?


Question: Will Wisconsin be the closest state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wisconsin has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will have the closest results in the upcoming Presidential election.

Closest state in the Presidential election?


Question: Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Republican candidate wins both the popular vote and the Presidency in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for the popular vote will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as to who is the winner of the popular vote.

The resolution source for the winner of the Presidency will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

This is a market on predicting which political party will win both the presidential election and the popular vote in the upcoming election.

Who wins Presidency + Popular Vote?


Question: Rabby airdrop in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rabby launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Rabby team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops

Airdrops in 2024


Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are 6 or more cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This is a market on the expected number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts occurring within the current calendar year.

How many Fed rate cuts this year?


Question: Will a Democrat win Montana US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Montana US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on the winner of the Montana Senate election.

Montana Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrency-related" counts).

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.


Question: Trump wins a solid blue state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican candidate for president wins the popular vote in any solid blue state(s) in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Solid blue states include: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.

Solid blue states are defined using the Cook Political Report's ratings as of this market's inception. Further changes to cook political report's rankings will not be considered for this market.

Individual congressional district electors will not count towards the resolution of this market; only statewide popular vote results will be considered.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
This market may resolve immediately if at least one of the listed states has been called for the Republican candidate for President by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or if all listed states have been called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Trump wins a solid blue state?


Question: Election certified on January 6?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election are officially certified by Congress on January 6, 2025, PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Certification is defined as the official confirmation of the Electoral College results by a joint session of Congress.

The primary resolution source will be the official information from the U.S. Congress however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Election certified on January 6?


Question: Who will win women?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

This market will resolve to “Harris” if Kamala Harris wins a greater share of women than Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump wins a greater share of women than Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris win the plurality of women in the 2024 US presidential election.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on women voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.

Who will win women?


Question: Will a Democrat win New Jersey Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in New Jersey in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the New Jersey presidential election.

New Jersey Presidential Election Winner


Question: Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase between 1.28°C (inclusive) and 1.30°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly within the stated range for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

This is a negrisk market group on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024.

Global Heat Increase 2024


Question: Will there be 165,000,000-170,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are between 165,000,000 (inclusive) and 170,000,000 (exclusive) votes cast in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a market on the total popular vote count for the U.S. Presidential Election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?


Question: Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pudgy Penguins launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Pudgy Penguins team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops

Airdrops in 2024


Question: Will another Trump coin be first to reach $1b?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Trump memecoin other than TRUMP, TREMP, and MAGA reaches $1b before they do. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The market start date is June 14, 2024, 3:00 PM ET.

The resolution source will be dexscreener, specifically the candlestick high prices multiplied by the coin's supply.

Note: Coins which show a hyper-inflated FDV due to extremely low liquidity or are otherwise faked will not count for this market group.

This is a market on whether the value of the first Trump Coin will reach $1 billion.

First Trump Coin to $1b?


Question: Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korea by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by North Korea, South Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Question: North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) and South Korea (Republic of Korea) between October 13, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between North Korean and South Korean military forces. Non-violent actions, such as the deployment of balloons, audio broadcasts, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Question: Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?

The 2024 Moldova presidential election is scheduled to be held on October 20, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Maia Sandu wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the election results from the Moldovan Government, specifically the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Moldova (Comisia Electorală Centrală a Republicii Moldova, CEC, https://a.cec.md/).

This is a negrisk group over the winner of the 2024 Moldovan presidential election, scheduled for October 20, 2024.

Moldova Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is between $2,800.00 (inclusive) and $2,900.00 (exclusive) per troy ounce as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

This is a market on the projected closing price of gold at the end of the year 2024.

What Price will Gold close at in 2024?


Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 0 and 4 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?


Question: Will the AP call the election on November 5?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press declares a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election on November 5, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

If the AP declares a winner before this market's timeframe, it will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting the exact day the Associated Press will declare the election results.

What day will the AP call the election?


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 0.5%-1%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 0.5% (inclusive) and 1% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: Matt Gaetz out as Congressman in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Matt Gaetz ceases to be a member of the U.S. House or Representatives for any period of time between September 19, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Matt Gaetz out as Congressman in 2024?


Question: Will Trump win no swing states?

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump does not win any swing state in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of swing states that Trump will win in the upcoming election.

How many swing states will Trump win?


Question: Mungo vs. MINH

Mungo (@mung0x) is scheduled to fight MINHxDYNASTY (@MINHxDYNASTY) on December 7, 2024.

If Mungo is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Mungo”. If MINHxDYNASTY is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “MINH”.

If this fight is declared a draw, or if for any reason the match is not scored, postponed after January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or cancelled, this market will resolve 50-50.

This is a market on the outcome of boxing matches during the Art Basel event.

Crypto Boxing


Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the 2024 United States general elections, the Democratic Party wins the Presidency and the House of Representatives, but the Republican Party secures control of the Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House, Senate, and Presidency in the 2024 US general election. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predictions regarding the balance of power in the 2024 election.

Balance of Power: 2024 Election


Question: Will Kamala Harris win Hawaii by the largest margin?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hawaii has the largest margin of victory between Kamala Harris and second place candidate of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Kamala Harris loses this state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, this market will resolve to "No".

The District of Columbia will not count.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Kamala Harris and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes for Kamala Harris and for the second place candidate by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting which state Kamala Harris will perform best in during the next election.

Which state will Kamala win by the largest margin?


Question: Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election?

This market will resolve to "Harris" if  according to the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve to "Trump" if according to the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

If the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.


Question: U.S. Recession in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the United States within the calendar year 2024, based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate. This includes any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-Q4. The determination will be based on the most recently released report by the BEA for each quarter.

If GDP data for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised before the release of the Advance Estimate for Q4, the most recent revision available will be used for market resolution instead of the initial Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the release of the Q4 Advance Estimate will not be considered for any quarters, including Q4 itself.

The primary resolution source for this market is the BEA’s official data on the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP, as available on their website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if there is ambiguity in the official data.

U.S. Recession in 2024?


Question: Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between October 23 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Question: Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of greater than 1.30°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of greater than 1.30°C for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

This is a negrisk market group on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024.

Global Heat Increase 2024


Question: Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "China" 10 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the East Asian country officially named People's Republic of China.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.


Question: TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans in the United States by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", a ban mandated by US federal law, policy, or the court system must have gone into effect (as defined above) within the above-stated timeframe.

If TikTok is sold to another entity in such a way that it comes into compliance with U.S. laws and regulations this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Question: Will RFK Jr. win 1-2% of the popular vote?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 1% (inclusive) and 2% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

RFK Jr. popular vote share?


Question: Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?

The 2024 Uruguay presidential election is scheduled to be held on October 27, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Álvaro Delgado wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the election results from the Uruguayan Government, specifically the Electoral Court (Corte Electoral).

This is a negrisk group over the winner of the 2024 Uruguayan presidential election, scheduled for October 27, 2024.

Uruguay Presidential Election


Question: Will New York move right in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the margin of the Republican candidate's percentage of the vote minus the Democratic candidate's percentage of the vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election in New York is greater than the corresponding margin in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. If the 2024 margin is equal to or less than the 2020 margin, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once the state has certified its votes.

If there is a recount in this state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting which U.S. states will lean more Democratic in the 2024 Presidential election than they did in the 2020 Presidential election.

Which states will move to the right in Presidential Election?


Question: Will Trump lead in RCP by 1.5-1.9 on Nov 4?

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Trump +1.5 (inclusive) and Trump +1.9 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

This is a market on the polling margin between Trump and Harris on November 4.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?


Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's November 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased by exactly 25 basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for November 6 - 7, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their November meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by December 18, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

This is a market on the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision for November 2024.

Fed Interest Rates

Fed Interest Rates: November 2024


Question: Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?

The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. Senate elections 55 voting Senate members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of Republican Senate seats following the upcoming election.

# of Republican Senate seats after Election?


Question: Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Pocahontas" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Pocahontas" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to either the Powhatan woman who married John Rolfe, or American politician Elizabeth Warren.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.

What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?


Question: Will Moo Deng be the first Pump.fun coin to $1b?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moo Deng (https://dexscreener.com/solana/22wrmytj8x2trvqen3fxxi2r4rn6jdhwomtpssmn8rud) reaches $1b FDV before all other pump.fun coins. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The market start date is September 26, 2024, 3:00 PM ET.

The resolution source will be dexscreener, specifically the candlestick high prices multiplied by the coin's supply.

If no pump.fun coin reaches $1b between September 26 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

Note: Coins which show a hyper-inflated FDV due to extremely low liquidity will not count for this market group.

This is a market on which Pump.fun coin will first reach a market capitalization of 1 billion dollars.

First Pump.fun coin to 1b?


Question: Will there be a US Government shutdown?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S government shut down occurs between August 30, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The market will resolve to “Yes” if the acting President fails to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by the applicable deadline(s), even if no government shutdown is explicitly announced.

For this market to resolve to "Yes" any shutdown will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

 The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will there be a US Government shutdown?


Question: Will Trump say "John McGuire" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "John McGuire" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.


Question: Will Trump do better with Asians than in 2020?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

According to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2020 US presidential election, Donald Trump received 34% of the Asian vote. You can see CNN's exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

This market will resolve to “Yes” Donald Trump's share of Asian voters is 35% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on Asian voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.


Question: Ethereum all time high in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price greater than $4,868.00 according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price greater than $4,891.70 according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.

Ethereum all time high in 2024?


Question: Democrats win popular vote by 4-5%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 4% (inclusive) and 5% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of Ukraine and Russia both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two countries that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.

If only one country (e.g. only Ukraine, or only Russia) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?


Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's December 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased by exactly 25 basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 17 - 18, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

This is a market on the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision for December 2024.

Fed Interest Rates

Fed decision in December?


Question: Bitcoin up on Nov 6?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) on November 7, 2024, 00:00 ET has a final "Close" price greater than the final 1 minute candle "Close" price for November 6, 2024, 00:00 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "Close" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.

Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Bitcoin up on Nov 6?


Question: Will Trump get more votes than 2020?

According to uselectionatlas.org Donald Trump received 74,225,926 votes in the 2020 Presidential election (see: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump receives 74,225,927 or more votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the total number of votes for Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Trump get more votes than 2020?


Question: Senate control after 2024 election?

The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.

This market will resolve to "Democrats" if following the 2024 U.S. Senate elections, Democrats have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and a Democrat Vice President. It will resolve to "Republicans" under the same conditions for Republicans.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2024 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with either Democrats or Republicans, this market will resolve 50-50.

Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2024 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2024 election results.

Senate control after 2024 election?


Question: Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia controls the intersection of Zaporizkyi prospekt (H-15) and Minska vulytsia in Kurakhove Ukraine by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if the intersection where the roads meet is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+intersection.png

Kurakhove Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+location.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5RiWB9CBKnjC6hzt5

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.


Question: Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if FTX begins customer reimbursements in Q4 2024 (between October 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If customer reimbursements begin before the start of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", customer reimbursements must actually begin; mere announcements that payouts will begin within this market's timeframe will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FTX and the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the date of the first payout to creditors following the FTX bankruptcy proceedings.

First FTX bankruptcy payout?


Question: Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Minnesota in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on who will win the presidential election in Minnesota.

Minnesota Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Who will win Pennsylvania?


Question: Kamala Harris blowout victory?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 100 or more electoral votes versus her closest competitor. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won all electoral votes from a territory if they win the plurality of the votes, faithless electors shall have no effect on the outcome.

This market's resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

Kamala Harris blowout victory?


Question: Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Iowa in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Iowa Presidential Election.

Iowa Presidential Election Winner


Question: Annual inflation above 2.4% in October?

This is a market about inflation over the 12 month period ending October 2024 before seasonal adjustment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 2.4 percent over the 12 month period ending October 2024 and “No“ otherwise.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS October 2024 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 13, 2024, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if inflation over the 12 month period ending in October before seasonal adjustment is 2.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 2.4%, this market will resolve to “No”).

Annual inflation above 2.4% in October?


Question: Will the AP call the election by November 6?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press declares a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election by November 6, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting whether the election will be called be different dates.

Election called by...?


Question: Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Note: Additional options for the number of named storms can be found here: https://polymarket.com/event/number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season

This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name fewer than 16 storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names fewer than 16 storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If 16 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.

Note: Storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it will count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that hasn't been classified yet by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until Dec 1, 3 AM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

This is a market on the total number of named storms that will occur during the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?


Question: Will Georgia be the tipping point state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Georgia is determined to be the tipping point jurisdiction in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The tipping point jurisdiction is defined as the jurisdiction that gives the winning candidate the necessary electoral votes to reach or surpass 270 electoral votes when states are ordered by the margin of victory. The margin of victory is the difference in the percentage of votes between the top two candidates. In this ordering, the tipping point state is the one where adding its electoral votes to the cumulative total reaches or exceeds 270 for the first time.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed jurisdiction has certified their votes. For purposes of this market, the jurisdiction is considered won by the candidate who wins the popular vote in that jurisdiction. Faithless electors shall have no effect on the outcome.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once all the listed jurisdictions have certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed jurisdiction before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will be the tipping point in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Tipping Point State in 2024 Election?


Question: Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and nominates Elon Musk for a Cabinet position by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?


Question: GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 0% (inclusive) and 1% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Will there be 160,000,000-165,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are between 160,000,000 (inclusive) and 165,000,000 (exclusive) votes cast in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a market on the total popular vote count for the U.S. Presidential Election.

Turnout in 2024 Presidential election?


Question: Will Kamala do better than Biden with unmarried women?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

According to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2020 US presidential election, Joe Biden received 63% of the unmarried women vote. You can see CNN's exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

This market will resolve to “Yes” Kamala Harris's share of unmarried women voters is 64% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on unmarried women voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.


Question: Canada federal election in 2024?

The 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025, however federal elections have been called early numerous times in Canada's history, most recently in 2021.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to be held in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Canada federal election in 2024?


Question: Mark Zuckerberg out as Facebook CEO in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Zuckerberg is no longer serving as CEO of Meta Platforms for any length of time between August 28, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Zuckerberg's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Meta Platforms and/or Mark Zuckerberg, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.0%-2.5%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 2.0% (inclusive) and 2.5% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Alabama in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 30.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points?


Question: Will Trump say "tampon" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tampon" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the feminine hygiene product.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.

What will Trump say during Salem, VA rally?


Question: Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "missile defense shield" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hyperliquid (https://hyperliquid.xyz/) officially launches a token between November 1 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Token launch means the token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Hyperliquid.

This is a market group over when Hyperliquid (https://hyperliquid.xyz/) launches a token.

Hyperliquid token launch wen?


Question: Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Nevada in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Nevada.

Who will win Nevada?


Question: Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hyperliquid (https://hyperliquid.xyz/) does not officially launch a token between September 23 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Token launch means the token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain.

The resolution source will be public announcements from Hyperliquid.

Hyperliquid token launch wen?


Question: Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Virginia in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Virginia presidential election.

Virginia Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "god" 4 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "god" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a superhuman being or spirit worshiped as having power over nature or human fortunes; a deity.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.


Question: Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is between $2,600.00 (inclusive) and $2,700.00 (exclusive) per troy ounce as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

This is a market on the projected closing price of gold at the end of the year 2024.

What Price will Gold close at in 2024?


Question: Netanyahu out in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any length of time between October 24 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM Israel Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any length of time within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". This market will not resolve to "No" until its timeframe expires and Netanyahu has remained Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration without interruption.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Netanyahu out in 2024?