Question: Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sundar Pichai is no longer serving as CEO of Google for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, January 18, through December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sundar Pichai's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Google and/or Sundar Pichai, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.


Question: Who will win Latino men?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

This market will resolve to “Harris” if Kamala Harris wins a greater share of Latino men than Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump wins a greater share of Latino men than Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris win the plurality of Latino men in the 2024 US presidential election.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on Latino men voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.

Who will win Latino men?


Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.17-1.22°C?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase of between 1.17°C (inclusive) and 1.22°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of between 1.17°C and 1.22°C for October 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for October 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "October" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024.

October 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)


Question: Will a Republican win Colorado Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Colorado in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Colorado.

Colorado Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will Trump say "frack" or "fracking" 4 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "frack" or "fracking" 4 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "frack" or "fracking" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the method of extracting fossil fuels.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.

What will Trump say during Salem, VA rally?


Question: U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 22, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to an U.S. missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Question: No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is no official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually upon agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas that begins between June 10, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media source.

This is a market on predicting the timing of the next ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in…?


Question: Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 3% (inclusive) and 4% (exclusive) when compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all U.S. States and the District of Columbia have certified their votes.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory in Presidential Election?

Popular Vote Margin of Victory?


Question: Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Ohio US Senate election is a Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Ohio Senate election.

Ohio Senate Election Winner


Question: Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 US Pennsylvania US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on the winner of the Pennsylvania Senate election.

Pennsylvania Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Biden pardon Trump?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by President Joseph Biden before the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on predicting which individuals President Biden will grant pardons to.

Who will Biden pardon?


Question: Will a Democrat win Michigan US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Michigan US Senate election is a Democrat. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Michigan Senate election.

Michigan Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?

If Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts 90 or more times on X between October 25, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and November 1, 2024, 12:00 PM ET this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1345967072006828033 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

This is a market on the number of tweets posted by Donald Trump between October 25 and November 1.

Donald Trump # of tweets Oct 25 - Nov 1?


Question: Will Trump say "tax" 20 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tax" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tax" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a compulsory financial charge imposed by a government authority.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.


Question: Trudeau out in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Trudeau ceases to be Prime Minister of Canada for any length of time between October 24 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Trudeau departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trudeau out in 2024?


Question: Will a Democrat win New Hampshire in the 2024 US Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in New Hampshire in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on the winner of the New Hampshire presidential primary election.

New Hampshire Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will Republicans have 50 seats in Senate after election?

The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. Senate elections 50 voting Senate members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of Republican Senate seats following the upcoming election.

# of Republican Senate seats after Election?


Question: Linea airdrop in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Linea launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Linea team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops

Airdrops in 2024


Question: Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pump.fun officially launches a token by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain.

The resolution source will be public announcements from Pump.fun.

Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024?


Question: Will the AP call the election by November 7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press declares a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election by November 7, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting whether the election will be called be different dates.

Election called by...?


Question: Will a Republican win North Carolina Governor Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Gubernatorial elections are presently scheduled for 11 states and 2 territories.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election is a Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the North Carolina Governor election.

North Carolina Governor Election Winner


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 1.5% (inclusive) and 2.0% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: Will Harris lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Harris 0.5 (inclusive) and Harris +0.9 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.

This is a market on the polling margin between Trump and Harris on November 4.

Trump vs. Harris polling margin on Nov 4?


Question: 2024 October hottest on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior October when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

At the point the data for October 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for October, and if 2024 October is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Note: If 2024 October is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

2024 October hottest on record?


Question: Will Trump lead in RCP by 1-1.4 on Nov 4?

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of November 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if between Trump +1.0 (inclusive) and Trump +1.4 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The RCP Polling Average will be checked on November 4, 12:00 PM ET.

Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used.

If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by November 8, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of November 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.


Question: Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend?

This is a market on how much 'Wicked' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Box Office” tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 22 - 24) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked' (2024) grosses less than $95,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by December 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a negrisk market group over the opening weekend box office figures for 'Venom: The Last Dance'.

'Wicked' Opening Weekend Box Office


Question: Will Gold close over $3,000 at the end of 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is $3,000.01 per troy ounce or greater as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).


Question: Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukrainian forces maintain control of any part of the Kursk Oblast of Russia, through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Ukrainian forces at any point no longer control any territory in the Kursk Oblast, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Control is defined as Ukrainian forces being present and actively holding territory in the Kursk Oblast.

The primary resolution source for this market will be maps and reports published by the Institute for the Study of War (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?


Question: Will Joe Rogan announce he is voting for Trump?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Rogan announces that he will vote for Donald Trump to be President of the United States by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", Rogan must explicitly announce that he is voting for Trump. Other statements of support will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be statements or official information from Joe Rogan or one of his representatives.


Question: Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "missile defense shield" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.

What will Trump say during Milwaukee, WI rally?


Question: Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 6 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 24 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on December 31, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 24 hours.

This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media source.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?


Question: Will a Republican win Nebraska US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senatorial elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Nebraska US Senate election is a Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Nebraska Senate election.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Georgia be the closest state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Georgia has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will have the closest results in the upcoming Presidential election.

Closest state in the Presidential election?


Question: Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Arizona in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on who will win the presidential election in Arizona.

Who will win Arizona?


Question: FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if FTX fails to begin customer reimbursements in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If customer reimbursements begin before the start of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", customer reimbursements must actually begin; mere announcements that payouts will begin within this market's timeframe will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FTX and the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the date of the first payout to creditors following the FTX bankruptcy proceedings.

First FTX bankruptcy payout?


Question: Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night

Ansem (@blknoiz06) is scheduled to fight Ben Armstrong a.k.a. "BitBoy" (@BenArmstrongsX) on December 6, 2024 in Dubai. You can view this post to learn more: https://x.com/CryptoFightWeek/status/1836756340649435639

If Ansem is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Ansem”. If Ben Armstrong is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Bitboy”.

If this fight is declared a draw, or if for any reason the match is not scored, postponed after January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or cancelled, this market will resolve 50-50.

Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night


Question: Will RFK Jr. win 2-3% of the popular vote?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 2% (inclusive) and 3% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

RFK Jr. popular vote share?


Question: Will Trump say "Elon" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Elon" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Elon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to billionaire CEO Elon Musk.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States imposes an arms embargo on Israel at any point between October 13, 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024.

An arms embargo is defined as a formal U.S. government action that prohibits or restricts the sale, transfer, or delivery of military weapons or defense equipment to Israel or an official announcement from the U.S. government announcing an embargo.

A limited embargo, restricting only certain categories of military equipment, will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

An announcement of an embargo will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether the embargo actually goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. arms embargo on Israel in 2024?


Question: Trump flips a 2020 Biden state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican candidate for president wins the popular vote in any state in the 2024 US presidential election that was won by Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

States won by Biden in 2020 include: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Individual congressional district electors will not count towards the resolution of this market; only statewide popular vote results will be considered. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

This market may resolve immediately if at least one of the listed states has been called for the Republican candidate for President by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC or if all listed states have been called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Trump flips a 2020 Biden state?


Question: Will Trump win Mississippi by 20+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Mississippi in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 20.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.


Question: Will Trump do better with Latinos than in 2020?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

According to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2020 US presidential election, Donald Trump received 32% of the Latino vote. You can see CNN's exit polls for the 2020 US presidential election here: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

This market will resolve to “Yes” Donald Trump's share of Latino voters is 33% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on Latino voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.


Question: Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Pavel Durov has left France for any length of time between August 27, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Durov may have exited French airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than France for this market to resolve to "Yes".

If Durov exits French maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Durov left France, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?


Question: Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October?

This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2024.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for October 2024 is more than 4.1%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.

The next data release is scheduled for November 1, 2024, 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if unemployment is 4.2%, this market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 4.1%, this market will resolve to “No”).

Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October?


Question: Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and nominates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for a Cabinet position by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Georgia by 4.0% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Georgia in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 4.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Georgia for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Georgia has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on the margin of victory for the Arizona election.

Georgia Margin of Victory


Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's December 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased by exactly 50 basis points below the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 17 - 18, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

This is a market on the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision for December 2024.

Fed Interest Rates

Fed decision in December?


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 2.5% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: Will the October 2024 temperature increase be between 1.23-1.28°C?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase of between 1.23°C (inclusive) and 1.28°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of between 1.23°C and 1.28°C for October 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for October 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "October" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

This is a market group over the temperature increase the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024.

October 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)


Question: Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is between $2,700.00 (inclusive) and $2,800.00 (exclusive) per troy ounce as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

This is a market on the projected closing price of gold at the end of the year 2024.

What Price will Gold close at in 2024?


Question: Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Democratic candidate wins both the popular vote and the Presidency in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for the popular vote will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting as to who is the winner of the popular vote.

The resolution source for the winner of the Presidency will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

This is a market on predicting which political party will win both the presidential election and the popular vote in the upcoming election.

Who wins Presidency + Popular Vote?


Question: Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Florida in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 8.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in Florida for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Florida has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points?


Question: Will 538 correctly call the Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the candidate that FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast projects as most likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election wins the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), or the FiveThirtyEight forecast is never released, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market may only resolve once Polymarket's main U.S. Presidential market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024) has been resolved.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100").


Question: Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is between $3,000.00 (inclusive) and $3,100.00 (exclusive) per troy ounce as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

What Price will Gold close at in 2024?


Question: Will 'Wicked' gross between $105-115m opening weekend?

This is a market on how much 'Wicked' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Box Office” tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Wicked-(2024)#tab=box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 22 - 24) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Wicked' (2024) grosses between $105,000,000 (inclusive) and $115,000,000 (exclusive) on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by December 2, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a negrisk market group over the opening weekend box office figures for 'Venom: The Last Dance'.

'Wicked' Opening Weekend Box Office


Question: Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will weed be rescheduled in 2024?


Question: 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 United States general elections, the Democratic Party wins the Presidency, with the Republican Party controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2024 House, Senate and Presidency are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2024 US general election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House, Senate, and Presidency in the 2024 US general election. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predictions regarding the balance of power in the 2024 election.

Balance of Power: 2024 Election


Question: Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Pocahontas" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Pocahontas" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to either the Powhatan woman who married John Rolfe, or American politician Elizabeth Warren.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.


Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 5 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 5 rate cuts by then.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 6 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This is a market on the expected number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts occurring within the current calendar year.

How many Fed rate cuts this year?


Question: Will Republicans have between 215 and 219 seats in House after election?

The 2024 United States House elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with all 435 seats in the House being contested.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if as a result of the 2024 U.S. House elections between 215 (inclusive) and 219 (inclusive) of voting House members are Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2024 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all House elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

# of Republican House seats after Election? (brackets)


Question: Will Trump say "American dream" 3 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "American dream" 3 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.


Question: Will the AP call the election by November 5?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press declares a winner in the 2024 US Presidential election by November 5, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official declaration of a winner made by AP, regardless of whether they later retract that declaration.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from AP.

This is a market on predicting whether the election will be called be different dates.

Election called by...?


Question: Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election?

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Regular senate elections are presently scheduled for 33 states.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the candidate who wins the 2024 Michigan US Senate election is a Republican. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the Michigan Senate election.

Michigan Senate Election Winner


Question: Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pennsylvania is determined to be the tipping point jurisdiction in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The tipping point jurisdiction is defined as the jurisdiction that gives the winning candidate the necessary electoral votes to reach or surpass 270 electoral votes when states are ordered by the margin of victory. The margin of victory is the difference in the percentage of votes between the top two candidates. In this ordering, the tipping point state is the one where adding its electoral votes to the cumulative total reaches or exceeds 270 for the first time.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed jurisdiction has certified their votes. For purposes of this market, the jurisdiction is considered won by the candidate who wins the popular vote in that jurisdiction. Faithless electors shall have no effect on the outcome.

The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count once all the listed jurisdictions have certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed jurisdiction before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will be the tipping point in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Tipping Point State in 2024 Election?


Question: Will Trump say "tax" 20 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "tax" 20 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tax" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a compulsory financial charge imposed by a government authority.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.


Question: MetaMask airdrop in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MetaMask launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the MetaMask team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops

Airdrops in 2024


Question: CA-13 election: Gray (D) vs. Duarte (R)

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Gray" if Democrat Adam Gray wins the congressional election in California's 13th district.

This market will resolve to "Duarte" if Republican John Duarte wins the congressional election in California's 13th district.

If any other candidate wins the election, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

CA-13 election: Gray (D) vs. Duarte (R)


Question: Will Kamala win 60% of women?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

This market will resolve to “Yes” Kamala Harris's share of female voters is 60% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on female voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.

Will Kamala win 60% of women?


Question: Will Kamala win 60% of college graduates?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

This market will resolve to “Yes” Kamala Harris's share of college graduate voters is 60% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on college graduates voters this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.


Question: $WIF listed on Coinbase in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the crypto token Dogwifhat ($WIF) is listed for spot purchase on Coinbase by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

$WIF listed on Coinbase in 2024?


Question: Will Nevada be the closest state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will have the closest results in the upcoming Presidential election.


Question: Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is less than $2,500.00 per troy ounce as of the final market close price in 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

This is a market on the projected closing price of gold at the end of the year 2024.

What Price will Gold close at in 2024?


Question: Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the popular vote in New York by 10.0% or more when compared with the second-place candidate in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Kamala Harris and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in New York for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once New York has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?


Question: Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sudzha railroad station located on Privokzal'naya ulitsa by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Sudzha+train.jpeg

Sudzha Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Sudzha+location.jpeg

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/s7MXZ3FSQBaVkAMk9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.


Question: Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Note: Additional options for the number of named storms can be found here: https://polymarket.com/event/number-of-named-storms-during-atlantic-hurricane-season

This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name between 21 and 25 storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names between 21 and 25 storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Note: Storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it will count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that hasn't been classified yet by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until Dec 1, 3 AM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

This is a market on the total number of named storms that will occur during the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?


Question: 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the republican-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 35 and 64 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?


Question: Will Jill Stein get >1% of the popular vote?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jill Stein receives more than 1% of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election (e.g. 1.02% of the popular vote would trigger a "Yes" resolution). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.


Question: Who will win Maricopa county?

This market will resolve to "Harris" if a Democratic candidate wins the popular vote in Maricopa county, AZ, in the 2024 US presidential election.

This market will resolve to "Trump" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Maricopa county, AZ, in the 2024 US presidential election.

If neither a Democratic or Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Maricopa county, AZ, in the 2024 US presidential election this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the margin between the leading candidate and the next candidate exceeds the number of outstanding votes (including mail-in) yet to be counted, this market may resolve accordingly.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting of the Maricopa county vote tally.

This is a market on the outcome of elections in key swing districts that could determine control of Congress.

Who will win each swing district?


Question: Tether Insolvent in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tether Insolvent in 2024?


Question: Will Minnesota be the closest state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Minnesota has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.


Question: Swell airdrop in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Swell launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Swell team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This is a market on the likelihood and outcomes of cryptocurrency airdrops occurring in 2024.

Airdrops

Airdrops in 2024


Question: Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 1 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-milwaukee-wisconsin).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "McDonald's" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "McDonald's" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the international fast food chain.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 1, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin scheduled for November 1, 2024.


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.0%-1.5%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 1.0% (inclusive) and 1.5% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Pennsylvania for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Pennsylvania has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the vote margin for the Pennsylvania presidential election.

Pennsylvania Margin of Victory


Question: Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by his father President Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?


Question: Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pump.fun launches a token and announces they have performed an airdrop between September 26 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from the Pump.fun team, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Airdrops

Airdrops in 2024


Question: Solana ETF approved in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Solana ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Solana ETF

Solana ETF approved in 2024?


Question: Will a Republican win New Jersey Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in New Jersey in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the New Jersey presidential election.

New Jersey Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on November 2 in Salem, Virginia (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-salem-virginia).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "McDonald's" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "McDonald's" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the international fast food chain.

If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond November 2, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

This is a market on predicting terms used by Trump during his rally in Salem, Virginia scheduled for November 2, 2024.

What will Trump say during Salem, VA rally?


Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Michigan by 4.0% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular vote in Michigan in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by  4.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Democratic Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Michigan for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Michigan has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the margin of victory for the Michigan football team in their next game.

Michigan Margin of Victory


Question: Solana all time high in Q4?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Solana (SOL) reaches a price greater than $259.90 for the first time according to Binance between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). If Binance is unavailable, a consensus of other credible sources will be used.

This is a market on the date when Solana will reach its all-time high price again.

Solana all time high wen?


Question: Will Michigan be the closest state?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michigan has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes.

If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on which state will have the closest results in the upcoming Presidential election.


Question: CA-41 election: Rollins (D) vs. Calvert (R)

United States general elections are scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Rollins" if Democrat Will Rollins wins the congressional election in California's 41st district.

This market will resolve to "Calvert" if Republican Ken Calvert wins the congressional election in California's 41st district.

If any other candidate wins the election, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.


Question: Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Republican candidate wins the popular vote in Alaska in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the winner of the presidential election in Alaska.

Alaska Presidential Election Winner


Question: Will Trump win 55% of voters without a college degree?

This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research.

This market will resolve to “Yes” Donald Trump's share of voters without a college degree is 55% or greater in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on voters without a college degree this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the full release of the Election Pool Exit Poll data from CNN. Initial or incomplete data will not be considered.

Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.


Question: Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Inside Out 2' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2024 - dates outside of 2024 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

This is a market on predicting which film will have the highest box office earnings in 2024.

Highest grossing movie in 2024?


Question: U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation is otherwise confirmed by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy in 2024?


Question: 2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the democrat-nominated candidate for the 2024 US presidential election wins by between 105 and 154 electoral college votes (inclusive) compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting on the final electoral college tally based on which territories each candidate wins.

This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.

Electoral College Margin of Victory?


Question: Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Taylor Swift is engaged to be married between February 11 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Taylor Swift or her official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?


Question: Will the Republican candidate win Nevada by 3.0%-4.0%?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in Nevada in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by between 3.0% (inclusive) and 4.0% (exclusive) when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Nevada for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Nevada has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on the margin of victory in the Nevada elections.

Nevada Margin of Victory


Question: Will Trump sell shares of DJT before the election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Donald Trump has sold any of his shares in Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If filings for a sale are made public or Trump otherwise announces a sale of shares in DJT by this market's resolution date, this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution even if the actual sale is yet to occur.

The primary resolution source will be public filings however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Question: Will the Republican candidate win North Carolina by 4.0% or more?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Republican Party candidate wins the popular vote in North Carolina in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 4.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the Republican Party candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in North Carolina for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once North Carolina has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

This is a market on predicting the margin of victory in North Carolina elections.

North Carolina Margin of Victory


Question: Will Trump win Alaska by 6+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Alaska in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 6.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in Alaska for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Alaska has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.

Will Trump win Alaska by 6+ points?


Question: Will Trump win 4 swing states?

This market considers the following states as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins exactly 4 swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

This is a market on predicting the number of swing states that Trump will win in the upcoming election.

How many swing states will Trump win?


Question: Will Harris win New Mexico by 6+ points?

This market will resolve to "Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the popular vote in New Mexico in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election by 6.0% or more when compared with the second place candidate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Kamala Harris and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once this state has certified the vote.

If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.