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"analysis": {
"aggregation": "directional correctness is computed within market and averaged equally across markets; eligibility fractions are record-weighted",
"correctness_rule": "expected_direction * delta > 0",
"deduplication": "same rule as evaluate_consistency._load_all_updated_forecasts",
"directions": [
"pro_H1",
"anti_H1"
],
"normalization": "initial yes, updated yes, and updated H1 are normalized independently from the documented [0,1]/[0,100] formats before deltas are computed",
"threshold_0_interpretation": "unconditional over all valid relevant records; zero movement is incorrect",
"threshold_rule": "eligible iff abs(delta) >= threshold",
"thresholds_pp": [
0,
1,
3,
5
]
},
"generated_at": "2026-08-21T19:52:07.333924+00:00",
"model_order": [
"claude-opus-4-8",
"gpt-5.4",
"DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
"llama3.3:70b",
"llama3.1:70b",
"qwen2.5:72b",
"qwen2.5:32b",
"qwen2.5:14b",
"qwen2.5:7b",
"llama3.1:8b"
],
"per_model": {
"DeepSeek-V4-Pro": {
"EHC": {
"below_3pp_fraction": 0.12666439057698872,
"below_3pp_records": 371,
"invalid_relevant_records": 71,
"markets_with_valid_records": 100,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
"correct_records": 2848,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 2929,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9728850574712644,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.006319634733847656,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 0
},
"1": {
"correct_records": 2766,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9679071355411403,
"eligible_records": 2835,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9760770686085527,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.005945552710050616,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 1
},
"3": {
"correct_records": 2496,
"eligible_fraction": 0.8733356094230112,
"eligible_records": 2558,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9772680804258765,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.005911561768331874,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 3
},
"5": {
"correct_records": 2177,
"eligible_fraction": 0.7603277569136224,
"eligible_records": 2227,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9800078631776905,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.005509612223556401,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 5
}
},
"valid_relevant_records": 2929
},
"HFC": {
"below_3pp_fraction": 0.12632297712529875,
"below_3pp_records": 370,
"invalid_relevant_records": 71,
"markets_with_valid_records": 100,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
"correct_records": 2849,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 2929,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9732298850574712,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.006151701797933327,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 0
},
"1": {
"correct_records": 2767,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9682485489928303,
"eligible_records": 2836,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9761879060469764,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.005890307728488038,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 1
},
"3": {
"correct_records": 2497,
"eligible_fraction": 0.8736770228747013,
"eligible_records": 2559,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9773789178643001,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.005855768421539181,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 3
},
"5": {
"correct_records": 2178,
"eligible_fraction": 0.7606691703653123,
"eligible_records": 2228,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9801078631776905,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.005468195726572731,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 5
}
},
"valid_relevant_records": 2929
},
"relevant_records": 3000,
"schema_adherence": {
"exact_after_normalization_fraction": 0.999662276258021,
"exact_after_normalization_records": 2960,
"paired_valid_records": 2961,
"raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0,
"within_2pp_fraction": 0.999662276258021,
"within_2pp_records": 2960
}
},
"claude-opus-4-8": {
"EHC": {
"below_3pp_fraction": 0.1807456347333648,
"below_3pp_records": 383,
"invalid_relevant_records": 1000,
"markets_with_valid_records": 79,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
"correct_records": 2078,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 2119,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9821729957805904,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.005345483633334157,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 79,
"threshold_pp": 0
},
"1": {
"correct_records": 2024,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9697970740915526,
"eligible_records": 2055,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9861274728472456,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.004595947655069412,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 79,
"threshold_pp": 1
},
"3": {
"correct_records": 1716,
"eligible_fraction": 0.8192543652666352,
"eligible_records": 1736,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9903234483694254,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.003849393541610517,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 78,
"threshold_pp": 3
},
"5": {
"correct_records": 1330,
"eligible_fraction": 0.6319018404907976,
"eligible_records": 1339,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9951540113134316,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.002669526662502324,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 78,
"threshold_pp": 5
}
},
"valid_relevant_records": 2119
},
"HFC": {
"below_3pp_fraction": 0.1807456347333648,
"below_3pp_records": 383,
"invalid_relevant_records": 1000,
"markets_with_valid_records": 79,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
"correct_records": 2081,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 2119,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9834388185654008,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.004998497896564774,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 79,
"threshold_pp": 0
},
"1": {
"correct_records": 2027,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9712128362435111,
"eligible_records": 2058,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9862115732368896,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.00458340785610127,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 79,
"threshold_pp": 1
},
"3": {
"correct_records": 1716,
"eligible_fraction": 0.8192543652666352,
"eligible_records": 1736,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9903234483694254,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.003849393541610517,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 78,
"threshold_pp": 3
},
"5": {
"correct_records": 1330,
"eligible_fraction": 0.6319018404907976,
"eligible_records": 1339,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9951540113134316,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.002669526662502324,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 78,
"threshold_pp": 5
}
},
"valid_relevant_records": 2119
},
"relevant_records": 3119,
"schema_adherence": {
"exact_after_normalization_fraction": 0.9985842378480415,
"exact_after_normalization_records": 2116,
"paired_valid_records": 2119,
"raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0,
"within_2pp_fraction": 1.0,
"within_2pp_records": 2119
}
},
"gpt-5.4": {
"EHC": {
"below_3pp_fraction": 0.06908140403286034,
"below_3pp_records": 185,
"invalid_relevant_records": 122,
"markets_with_valid_records": 101,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
"correct_records": 2640,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 2678,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9842421192668719,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.0054792089221798465,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
"threshold_pp": 0
},
"1": {
"correct_records": 2611,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9891710231516057,
"eligible_records": 2649,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9842421192668719,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.0054792089221798465,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
"threshold_pp": 1
},
"3": {
"correct_records": 2465,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9309185959671397,
"eligible_records": 2493,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9869419732858871,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.00488792947560723,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
"threshold_pp": 3
},
"5": {
"correct_records": 1948,
"eligible_fraction": 0.7326362957430919,
"eligible_records": 1962,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9883014772065442,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.006771229716410639,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
"threshold_pp": 5
}
},
"valid_relevant_records": 2678
},
"HFC": {
"below_3pp_fraction": 0.06892697466467958,
"below_3pp_records": 185,
"invalid_relevant_records": 116,
"markets_with_valid_records": 101,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
"correct_records": 2646,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 2684,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9843108761425594,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.005473772106981939,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
"threshold_pp": 0
},
"1": {
"correct_records": 2617,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9891952309985097,
"eligible_records": 2655,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9843108761425594,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.005473772106981939,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
"threshold_pp": 1
},
"3": {
"correct_records": 2471,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9310730253353204,
"eligible_records": 2499,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9870107301615746,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.004881453938556118,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
"threshold_pp": 3
},
"5": {
"correct_records": 1954,
"eligible_fraction": 0.7332339791356185,
"eligible_records": 1968,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9883702340822317,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.006766418577304826,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
"threshold_pp": 5
}
},
"valid_relevant_records": 2684
},
"relevant_records": 2800,
"schema_adherence": {
"exact_after_normalization_fraction": 1.0,
"exact_after_normalization_records": 2731,
"paired_valid_records": 2731,
"raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0,
"within_2pp_fraction": 1.0,
"within_2pp_records": 2731
}
},
"llama3.1:70b": {
"EHC": {
"below_3pp_fraction": 0.006027727546714889,
"below_3pp_records": 10,
"invalid_relevant_records": 0,
"markets_with_valid_records": 99,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
"correct_records": 1593,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 1659,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
"threshold_pp": 0
},
"1": {
"correct_records": 1593,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 1659,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
"threshold_pp": 1
},
"3": {
"correct_records": 1583,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9939722724532851,
"eligible_records": 1649,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9605202350300387,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.008915571301229396,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
"threshold_pp": 3
},
"5": {
"correct_records": 1521,
"eligible_fraction": 0.946955997588909,
"eligible_records": 1571,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9674692344032806,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.007317414179339736,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
"threshold_pp": 5
}
},
"valid_relevant_records": 1659
},
"HFC": {
"below_3pp_fraction": 0.006027727546714889,
"below_3pp_records": 10,
"invalid_relevant_records": 0,
"markets_with_valid_records": 99,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
"correct_records": 1593,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 1659,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
"threshold_pp": 0
},
"1": {
"correct_records": 1593,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 1659,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
"threshold_pp": 1
},
"3": {
"correct_records": 1583,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9939722724532851,
"eligible_records": 1649,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9605202350300387,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.008915571301229396,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
"threshold_pp": 3
},
"5": {
"correct_records": 1521,
"eligible_fraction": 0.946955997588909,
"eligible_records": 1571,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9674692344032806,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.007317414179339736,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
"threshold_pp": 5
}
},
"valid_relevant_records": 1659
},
"relevant_records": 1659,
"schema_adherence": {
"exact_after_normalization_fraction": 1.0,
"exact_after_normalization_records": 1659,
"paired_valid_records": 1659,
"raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0,
"within_2pp_fraction": 1.0,
"within_2pp_records": 1659
}
},
"llama3.1:8b": {
"EHC": {
"below_3pp_fraction": 0.01721743960011108,
"below_3pp_records": 62,
"invalid_relevant_records": 3,
"markets_with_valid_records": 100,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
"correct_records": 3192,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 3601,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8813965517241381,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.015481273499110862,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 0
},
"1": {
"correct_records": 3191,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9930574840322133,
"eligible_records": 3576,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874695311074623,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.015452513947883826,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 1
},
"3": {
"correct_records": 3157,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9827825603998889,
"eligible_records": 3539,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874909688013136,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.015477113613372208,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 3
},
"5": {
"correct_records": 2970,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9222438211607886,
"eligible_records": 3321,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8892565490434986,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.015499442701630005,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 5
}
},
"valid_relevant_records": 3601
},
"HFC": {
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"below_3pp_records": 52,
"invalid_relevant_records": 0,
"markets_with_valid_records": 100,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
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"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 3604,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8838333333333336,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.015513028086226111,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 0
},
"1": {
"correct_records": 3203,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9958379578246392,
"eligible_records": 3589,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874072249589494,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.015473836121580433,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 1
},
"3": {
"correct_records": 3169,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9855715871254163,
"eligible_records": 3552,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874327494982669,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.015498554130008078,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 3
},
"5": {
"correct_records": 2982,
"eligible_fraction": 0.9250832408435072,
"eligible_records": 3334,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8891995048855622,
"market_macro_standard_error": 0.01552095936223494,
"markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
"threshold_pp": 5
}
},
"valid_relevant_records": 3604
},
"relevant_records": 3604,
"schema_adherence": {
"exact_after_normalization_fraction": 0.9972229936128854,
"exact_after_normalization_records": 3591,
"paired_valid_records": 3601,
"raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 166,
"within_2pp_fraction": 0.9972229936128854,
"within_2pp_records": 3591
}
},
"llama3.3:70b": {
"EHC": {
"below_3pp_fraction": 0.006711409395973154,
"below_3pp_records": 12,
"invalid_relevant_records": 0,
"markets_with_valid_records": 100,
"thresholds": {
"0": {
"correct_records": 1724,
"eligible_fraction": 1.0,
"eligible_records": 1788,
"market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9644444444444441,
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