File size: 6,053 Bytes
2bdd144 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 | {
"comparisons": {
"trained_mean_minus_base_EHC": {
"bootstrap_repetitions": 5000,
"ci95_high": 0.020666666666666663,
"ci95_low": 0.0004444444444444462,
"estimate": 0.01011111111111111,
"n_markets": 100
},
"trained_mean_minus_base_HFC": {
"bootstrap_repetitions": 5000,
"ci95_high": 0.020999999999999998,
"ci95_low": 0.000888888888888889,
"estimate": 0.01011111111111111,
"n_markets": 100
},
"trained_mean_minus_base_ICS": {
"bootstrap_repetitions": 5000,
"ci95_high": 0.0,
"ci95_low": 0.0,
"estimate": 0.0,
"n_markets": 100
},
"trained_mean_minus_base_sensitivity": {
"bootstrap_repetitions": 5000,
"ci95_high": 0.4815531021360142,
"ci95_low": -0.07318818130473836,
"estimate": 0.19240549918538985,
"n_markets": 100
}
},
"generated_at": "2026-08-13T15:57:26.446578+00:00",
"inputs": {
"base": {
"path": "exp3_training_transfer/polymarket/reports/exp3b_exp1_reapplication_j30535058/base.jsonl",
"sha256": "d51667f990594b8e153701ee67d9d5aea12ce73eaf8bce0d023cca52fda8f0fc"
},
"seed_42": {
"path": "exp3_training_transfer/polymarket/reports/exp3b_exp1_reapplication_j30535058/seed_42.jsonl",
"sha256": "787a49c7d1a87e3e73b8129b112435f44191384cbeeef8e54ba7879cdde4725b"
},
"seed_43": {
"path": "exp3_training_transfer/polymarket/reports/exp3b_exp1_reapplication_j30535058/seed_43.jsonl",
"sha256": "d138f86d053f7cf98fa0e0d033671d481f6190a8a3a9409378dc2d644ddf1bec"
},
"seed_44": {
"path": "exp3_training_transfer/polymarket/reports/exp3b_exp1_reapplication_j30535058/seed_44.jsonl",
"sha256": "8c7eac64ad0450bb5ea84ef6b8290a57e035b29e02d42337b22511d0fb50f922"
}
},
"models": {
"base": {
"EHC": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 591,
"rate": 0.9089999999999998,
"se": 0.014003406672261269
},
"HFC": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 591,
"rate": 0.9089999999999998,
"se": 0.014003406672261269
},
"ICS": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 900,
"rate": 1.0,
"se": 0.0
},
"n_markets": 100,
"n_packets": 900,
"parse_coverage": 1.0,
"revision_magnitude": {
"anti_H1": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.12113333333333354,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.004658953651488574
},
"orthogonal": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.029466666666666665,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.00169369829018604
},
"pro_H1": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.15243333333333334,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.005625752685096979
}
},
"sensitivity": 4.641968325791847
},
"seed_42": {
"EHC": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 592,
"rate": 0.9168333333333333,
"se": 0.013306992077827791
},
"HFC": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 592,
"rate": 0.9168333333333333,
"se": 0.013306992077827791
},
"ICS": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 900,
"rate": 1.0,
"se": 0.0
},
"n_markets": 100,
"n_packets": 900,
"parse_coverage": 1.0,
"revision_magnitude": {
"anti_H1": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.1224000000000002,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.004646322912898462
},
"orthogonal": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.02836666666666664,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.0016489571944292027
},
"pro_H1": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.14376666666666665,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.00535791818282148
}
},
"sensitivity": 4.691539365452408
},
"seed_43": {
"EHC": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 588,
"rate": 0.9223333333333332,
"se": 0.013027252794660212
},
"HFC": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 588,
"rate": 0.9223333333333332,
"se": 0.013027252794660212
},
"ICS": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 900,
"rate": 1.0,
"se": 0.0
},
"n_markets": 100,
"n_packets": 900,
"parse_coverage": 1.0,
"revision_magnitude": {
"anti_H1": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.11943333333333352,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.0045984870599395065
},
"orthogonal": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.024966666666666627,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.0016271788125911866
},
"pro_H1": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.1366333333333332,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.0052216209320414915
}
},
"sensitivity": 5.128170894526037
},
"seed_44": {
"EHC": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 591,
"rate": 0.9181666666666666,
"se": 0.013331428736022954
},
"HFC": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 591,
"rate": 0.9181666666666666,
"se": 0.013331428736022954
},
"ICS": {
"n_markets": 100,
"n_records": 900,
"rate": 1.0,
"se": 0.0
},
"n_markets": 100,
"n_packets": 900,
"parse_coverage": 1.0,
"revision_magnitude": {
"anti_H1": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.12583333333333352,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.004739703581541476
},
"orthogonal": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.02853333333333331,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.0016531941538858082
},
"pro_H1": {
"mean_abs_delta": 0.14143333333333327,
"n": 300,
"se": 0.005277878854476201
}
},
"sensitivity": 4.683411214953267
}
},
"protocol_version": "exp3b_exp1_reapplication_v1",
"trained_mean": {
"EHC": 0.919111111111111,
"HFC": 0.919111111111111,
"ICS": 1.0,
"parse_coverage": 1.0,
"sensitivity": 4.834373824977237
}
}
|