| { |
| "fit_on": "train only", |
| "platt_parameters": { |
| "intercept": 0.03165908124411149, |
| "l2": 0.0001, |
| "market_logit_slope": 1.2074722457582534 |
| }, |
| "protocol_version": "exp3b_registered_v1", |
| "splits": { |
| "dev": { |
| "market": { |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.822265625, |
| "brier": 0.1261644770507813, |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.041379882812499984, |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.3951615673908744, |
| "mean_forecast": 0.30462597656250007, |
| "n": 512, |
| "yes_rate": 0.275390625 |
| }, |
| "platt_market_train_only": { |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.818359375, |
| "brier": 0.12721311687427594, |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.05328291793905943, |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.4000855801260898, |
| "mean_forecast": 0.2950303938774148, |
| "n": 512, |
| "yes_rate": 0.275390625 |
| }, |
| "platt_minus_market_brier": { |
| "bootstrap_repetitions": 5000, |
| "ci95_high": 0.0037101134214000027, |
| "ci95_low": -0.0011426664148143136, |
| "estimate": 0.0010486398234946378, |
| "family_cluster_count": 274 |
| }, |
| "train_climatology": { |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.724609375, |
| "brier": 0.20082292640000832, |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.03566928283410409, |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.5915829921321202, |
| "mean_forecast": 0.3110599078341041, |
| "n": 512, |
| "yes_rate": 0.275390625 |
| } |
| }, |
| "test": { |
| "market": { |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.84765625, |
| "brier": 0.11369354125976557, |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.05205224609374999, |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.36581226603060973, |
| "mean_forecast": 0.3226118164062503, |
| "n": 1024, |
| "yes_rate": 0.30078125 |
| }, |
| "platt_market_train_only": { |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.845703125, |
| "brier": 0.11232485790149636, |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.03570535646405733, |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.3604649563223206, |
| "mean_forecast": 0.31328321743020504, |
| "n": 1024, |
| "yes_rate": 0.30078125 |
| }, |
| "platt_minus_market_brier": { |
| "bootstrap_repetitions": 5000, |
| "ci95_high": -0.00010841218184253232, |
| "ci95_low": -0.0026219398380300752, |
| "estimate": -0.0013686833582691746, |
| "family_cluster_count": 466 |
| }, |
| "train_climatology": { |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.69921875, |
| "brier": 0.21041754045530633, |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.010278657834099814, |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.6117728248164666, |
| "mean_forecast": 0.3110599078340998, |
| "n": 1024, |
| "yes_rate": 0.30078125 |
| } |
| }, |
| "train": { |
| "market": { |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.8726958525345622, |
| "brier": 0.09329225417626717, |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.023948444700460807, |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.30586723902569946, |
| "mean_forecast": 0.32039256912442365, |
| "n": 1736, |
| "yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137 |
| }, |
| "platt_market_train_only": { |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.8692396313364056, |
| "brier": 0.09297458317706854, |
| "ece_10_bin": 0.015711901203541524, |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.30111382163185013, |
| "mean_forecast": 0.3110599078341009, |
| "n": 1736, |
| "yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137 |
| }, |
| "platt_minus_market_brier": { |
| "bootstrap_repetitions": 5000, |
| "ci95_high": 0.0007226412414162426, |
| "ci95_low": -0.001281010305049825, |
| "estimate": -0.0003176709991990625, |
| "family_cluster_count": 918 |
| }, |
| "train_climatology": { |
| "accuracy_at_0.5": 0.6889400921658986, |
| "brier": 0.21430164157233902, |
| "ece_10_bin": 1.0325074129013956e-14, |
| "log_loss_nats": 0.6199460927801355, |
| "mean_forecast": 0.31105990783409104, |
| "n": 1736, |
| "yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137 |
| } |
| } |
| }, |
| "train_yes_rate": 0.31105990783410137 |
| } |
|
|