{
  "analysis": {
    "aggregation": "directional correctness is computed within market and averaged equally across markets; eligibility fractions are record-weighted",
    "correctness_rule": "expected_direction * delta > 0",
    "deduplication": "same rule as evaluate_consistency._load_all_updated_forecasts",
    "directions": [
      "pro_H1",
      "anti_H1"
    ],
    "normalization": "initial yes, updated yes, and updated H1 are normalized independently from the documented [0,1]/[0,100] formats before deltas are computed",
    "threshold_0_interpretation": "unconditional over all valid relevant records; zero movement is incorrect",
    "threshold_rule": "eligible iff abs(delta) >= threshold",
    "thresholds_pp": [
      0,
      1,
      3,
      5
    ]
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-08-21T19:52:07.333924+00:00",
  "model_order": [
    "claude-opus-4-8",
    "gpt-5.4",
    "DeepSeek-V4-Pro",
    "llama3.3:70b",
    "llama3.1:70b",
    "qwen2.5:72b",
    "qwen2.5:32b",
    "qwen2.5:14b",
    "qwen2.5:7b",
    "llama3.1:8b"
  ],
  "per_model": {
    "DeepSeek-V4-Pro": {
      "EHC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.12666439057698872,
        "below_3pp_records": 371,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 71,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 100,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
            "correct_records": 2848,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 2929,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9728850574712644,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.006319634733847656,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
            "correct_records": 2766,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9679071355411403,
            "eligible_records": 2835,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9760770686085527,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005945552710050616,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 2496,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.8733356094230112,
            "eligible_records": 2558,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9772680804258765,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005911561768331874,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 2177,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.7603277569136224,
            "eligible_records": 2227,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9800078631776905,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005509612223556401,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 2929
      },
      "HFC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.12632297712529875,
        "below_3pp_records": 370,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 71,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 100,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
            "correct_records": 2849,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 2929,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9732298850574712,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.006151701797933327,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
            "correct_records": 2767,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9682485489928303,
            "eligible_records": 2836,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9761879060469764,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005890307728488038,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 2497,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.8736770228747013,
            "eligible_records": 2559,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9773789178643001,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005855768421539181,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 2178,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.7606691703653123,
            "eligible_records": 2228,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9801078631776905,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005468195726572731,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 2929
      },
      "relevant_records": 3000,
      "schema_adherence": {
        "exact_after_normalization_fraction": 0.999662276258021,
        "exact_after_normalization_records": 2960,
        "paired_valid_records": 2961,
        "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0,
        "within_2pp_fraction": 0.999662276258021,
        "within_2pp_records": 2960
      }
    },
    "claude-opus-4-8": {
      "EHC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.1807456347333648,
        "below_3pp_records": 383,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 1000,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 79,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
            "correct_records": 2078,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 2119,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9821729957805904,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005345483633334157,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 79,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
            "correct_records": 2024,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9697970740915526,
            "eligible_records": 2055,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9861274728472456,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.004595947655069412,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 79,
            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 1716,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.8192543652666352,
            "eligible_records": 1736,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9903234483694254,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.003849393541610517,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 78,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 1330,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.6319018404907976,
            "eligible_records": 1339,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9951540113134316,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.002669526662502324,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 78,
            "threshold_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 2119
      },
      "HFC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.1807456347333648,
        "below_3pp_records": 383,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 1000,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 79,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
            "correct_records": 2081,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 2119,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9834388185654008,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.004998497896564774,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 79,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
            "correct_records": 2027,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9712128362435111,
            "eligible_records": 2058,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9862115732368896,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.00458340785610127,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 79,
            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 1716,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.8192543652666352,
            "eligible_records": 1736,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9903234483694254,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.003849393541610517,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 78,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 1330,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.6319018404907976,
            "eligible_records": 1339,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9951540113134316,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.002669526662502324,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 78,
            "threshold_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 2119
      },
      "relevant_records": 3119,
      "schema_adherence": {
        "exact_after_normalization_fraction": 0.9985842378480415,
        "exact_after_normalization_records": 2116,
        "paired_valid_records": 2119,
        "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0,
        "within_2pp_fraction": 1.0,
        "within_2pp_records": 2119
      }
    },
    "gpt-5.4": {
      "EHC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.06908140403286034,
        "below_3pp_records": 185,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 122,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 101,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
            "correct_records": 2640,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 2678,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9842421192668719,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.0054792089221798465,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
            "correct_records": 2611,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9891710231516057,
            "eligible_records": 2649,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9842421192668719,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.0054792089221798465,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 2465,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9309185959671397,
            "eligible_records": 2493,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9869419732858871,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.00488792947560723,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 1948,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.7326362957430919,
            "eligible_records": 1962,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9883014772065442,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.006771229716410639,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
            "threshold_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 2678
      },
      "HFC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.06892697466467958,
        "below_3pp_records": 185,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 116,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 101,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
            "correct_records": 2646,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 2684,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9843108761425594,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005473772106981939,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
            "correct_records": 2617,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9891952309985097,
            "eligible_records": 2655,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9843108761425594,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.005473772106981939,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 2471,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9310730253353204,
            "eligible_records": 2499,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9870107301615746,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.004881453938556118,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 1954,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.7332339791356185,
            "eligible_records": 1968,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9883702340822317,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.006766418577304826,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 101,
            "threshold_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 2684
      },
      "relevant_records": 2800,
      "schema_adherence": {
        "exact_after_normalization_fraction": 1.0,
        "exact_after_normalization_records": 2731,
        "paired_valid_records": 2731,
        "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0,
        "within_2pp_fraction": 1.0,
        "within_2pp_records": 2731
      }
    },
    "llama3.1:70b": {
      "EHC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.006027727546714889,
        "below_3pp_records": 10,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 0,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 99,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
            "correct_records": 1593,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 1659,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
            "correct_records": 1593,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 1659,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 1583,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9939722724532851,
            "eligible_records": 1649,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9605202350300387,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008915571301229396,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 1521,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.946955997588909,
            "eligible_records": 1571,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9674692344032806,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.007317414179339736,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
            "threshold_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 1659
      },
      "HFC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.006027727546714889,
        "below_3pp_records": 10,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 0,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 99,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
            "correct_records": 1593,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 1659,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
            "correct_records": 1593,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 1659,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9607182940516271,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846446825860407,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 1583,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9939722724532851,
            "eligible_records": 1649,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9605202350300387,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008915571301229396,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 1521,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.946955997588909,
            "eligible_records": 1571,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9674692344032806,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.007317414179339736,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 99,
            "threshold_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 1659
      },
      "relevant_records": 1659,
      "schema_adherence": {
        "exact_after_normalization_fraction": 1.0,
        "exact_after_normalization_records": 1659,
        "paired_valid_records": 1659,
        "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0,
        "within_2pp_fraction": 1.0,
        "within_2pp_records": 1659
      }
    },
    "llama3.1:8b": {
      "EHC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.01721743960011108,
        "below_3pp_records": 62,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 3,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 100,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
            "correct_records": 3192,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 3601,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8813965517241381,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015481273499110862,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
            "correct_records": 3191,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9930574840322133,
            "eligible_records": 3576,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874695311074623,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015452513947883826,
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            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 3157,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9827825603998889,
            "eligible_records": 3539,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874909688013136,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015477113613372208,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 2970,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9222438211607886,
            "eligible_records": 3321,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8892565490434986,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015499442701630005,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 3601
      },
      "HFC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.014428412874583796,
        "below_3pp_records": 52,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 0,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 100,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
            "correct_records": 3204,
            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 3604,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8838333333333336,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015513028086226111,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
            "correct_records": 3203,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9958379578246392,
            "eligible_records": 3589,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874072249589494,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015473836121580433,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 3169,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9855715871254163,
            "eligible_records": 3552,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8874327494982669,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.015498554130008078,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 2982,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9250832408435072,
            "eligible_records": 3334,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.8891995048855622,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.01552095936223494,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 5
          }
        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 3604
      },
      "relevant_records": 3604,
      "schema_adherence": {
        "exact_after_normalization_fraction": 0.9972229936128854,
        "exact_after_normalization_records": 3591,
        "paired_valid_records": 3601,
        "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 166,
        "within_2pp_fraction": 0.9972229936128854,
        "within_2pp_records": 3591
      }
    },
    "llama3.3:70b": {
      "EHC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.006711409395973154,
        "below_3pp_records": 12,
        "invalid_relevant_records": 0,
        "markets_with_valid_records": 100,
        "thresholds": {
          "0": {
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            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 1788,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9644444444444441,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846701233147148,
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            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
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            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
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            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9644444444444441,
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          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 1714,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9932885906040269,
            "eligible_records": 1776,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.965347222222222,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008764948906138752,
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            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
            "correct_records": 1561,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.895413870246085,
            "eligible_records": 1601,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9742046221752103,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.007661424887173171,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
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        },
        "valid_relevant_records": 1788
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      "HFC": {
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        "below_3pp_records": 12,
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        "markets_with_valid_records": 100,
        "thresholds": {
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            "eligible_records": 1788,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9644444444444441,
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            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 0
          },
          "1": {
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            "eligible_fraction": 1.0,
            "eligible_records": 1788,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9644444444444441,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008846701233147148,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 1
          },
          "3": {
            "correct_records": 1714,
            "eligible_fraction": 0.9932885906040269,
            "eligible_records": 1776,
            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.965347222222222,
            "market_macro_standard_error": 0.008764948906138752,
            "markets_with_eligible_records": 100,
            "threshold_pp": 3
          },
          "5": {
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            "market_macro_directional_correctness": 0.9742046221752103,
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        },
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      "relevant_records": 1788,
      "schema_adherence": {
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        "paired_valid_records": 1788,
        "raw_h1_headline_scale_mismatch_records": 0,
        "within_2pp_fraction": 1.0,
        "within_2pp_records": 1788
      }
    },
    "qwen2.5:14b": {
      "EHC": {
        "below_3pp_fraction": 0.028888888888888888,
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