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You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [45.278, 46.678, 55.778, 56.478], "shocks": [-10.0, -8.0, 5.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 54.0, "g": 0.4029, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100104, "k": 3, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [45.619, 46.173, 52.267, 55.591], "shocks": [-6.0, -5.0, 6.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.554, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 51.0, "g": 0.554, "structure": "lagged", "seed": 5100384, "k": 2, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.554, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [52.226, 52.781, 58.326, 59.435], "shocks": [-3.0, -2.0, 8.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.5545, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 54.0, "g": 0.9242, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100399, "k": 6, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.5545, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [43.238, 46.595, 55.826, 60.022], "shocks": [-12.0, -8.0, 3.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.8392, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 48.0, "g": 0.8392, "structure": "inhibitory", "seed": 4100572, "k": 2, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.8392, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [15.985, 18.139, 20.294, 20.725], "shocks": [-12.0, -2.0, 8.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.2155, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 29.0, "g": 0.3591, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100324, "k": 8, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2155, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [6.881, 8.162, 15.418, 15.845], "shocks": [-15.0, -12.0, 5.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.4268, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 24.0, "g": 0.7114, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100180, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.4268, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [45.262, 46.662, 52.962, 59.262], "shocks": [-5.0, -3.0, 6.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 46.0, "g": 0.3699, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100233, "k": 5, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [45.001, 47.743, 50.877, 52.053], "shocks": [-12.0, -5.0, 3.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.3917, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 44.0, "g": 0.6529, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100014, "k": 2, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.3917, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [61.647, 63.15, 65.154, 66.156], "shocks": [-12.0, -6.0, 2.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.2505, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 64.0, "g": 0.2505, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100325, "k": 9, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2505, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [25.36, 31.981, 42.386, 46.17], "shocks": [-10.0, -3.0, 8.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.9459, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 36.0, "g": 0.9459, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100535, "k": 5, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.9459, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [40.036, 40.24, 41.467, 41.876], "shocks": [-15.0, -12.0, 6.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.0682, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 39.0, "g": 0.1136, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100538, "k": 5, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.0682, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [42.256, 43.012, 47.166, 48.299], "shocks": [-8.0, -6.0, 5.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.3776, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 53.0, "g": 0.6294, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100085, "k": 1, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.3776, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [52.016, 53.593, 56.221, 57.797], "shocks": [-6.0, -3.0, 2.0, 5.0], "slope_target": 0.5256, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 55.0, "g": 0.876, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100315, "k": 1, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.5256, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [49.591, 49.763, 52.341, 53.201], "shocks": [-6.0, -5.0, 10.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.1719, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 38.0, "g": 0.2865, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100520, "k": 8, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1719, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [35.553, 36.236, 42.383, 43.066], "shocks": [-12.0, -10.0, 8.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.3415, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 43.0, "g": 0.5692, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100158, "k": 9, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.3415, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 3 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [45.358, 45.75, 47.022, 47.316], "shocks": [-12.0, -8.0, 5.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.0979, "horizon": 3, "last_poll": 44.0, "g": 0.2317, "structure": "chain3", "seed": 6100156, "k": 6, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.0979, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 3 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [54.648, 55.067, 56.741, 57.787], "shocks": [-5.0, -3.0, 5.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.2093, "horizon": 3, "last_poll": 51.0, "g": 0.4953, "structure": "chain3", "seed": 6100577, "k": 1, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2093, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 3 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [54.461, 55.353, 56.333, 56.868], "shocks": [-15.0, -5.0, 6.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.0891, "horizon": 3, "last_poll": 56.0, "g": 0.211, "structure": "chain3", "seed": 6100056, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.0891, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [48.788, 49.393, 50.401, 52.822], "shocks": [-5.0, -2.0, 3.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.2017, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 50.0, "g": 0.2017, "structure": "inhibitory", "seed": 4100390, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2017, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [77.893, 78.107, 80.238, 80.664], "shocks": [-3.0, -2.0, 8.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.2131, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 70.0, "g": 0.3552, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100513, "k": 6, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2131, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [49.552, 50.423, 59.134, 60.876], "shocks": [-3.0, -2.0, 8.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.8711, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 53.0, "g": 0.8711, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100048, "k": 4, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.8711, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [53.217, 55.315, 61.085, 62.658], "shocks": [-12.0, -8.0, 3.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.5245, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 63.0, "g": 0.5245, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100159, "k": 9, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.5245, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [47.241, 50.288, 51.929, 53.569], "shocks": [-15.0, -2.0, 5.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.2344, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 53.0, "g": 0.2344, "structure": "lagged", "seed": 5100521, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2344, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [22.866, 24.949, 27.924, 28.817], "shocks": [-15.0, -8.0, 2.0, 5.0], "slope_target": 0.2975, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 27.0, "g": 0.4959, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100535, "k": 8, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2975, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [46.087, 47.169, 50.685, 52.579], "shocks": [-12.0, -8.0, 5.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.2705, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 49.0, "g": 0.2705, "structure": "inhibitory", "seed": 4100001, "k": 1, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2705, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [43.291, 50.291, 57.291, 60.791], "shocks": [-15.0, -5.0, 5.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 55.0, "g": 0.9847, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100498, "k": 3, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [46.386, 48.186, 50.286, 51.186], "shocks": [-8.0, -2.0, 5.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.3, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 39.0, "g": 0.7666, "structure": "chain2_hidden_phi", "seed": 2100547, "k": 6, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [48.351, 48.951, 53.451, 55.551], "shocks": [-12.0, -10.0, 5.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.3, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 55.0, "g": 0.248, "structure": "chain2_hidden_phi", "seed": 2100391, "k": 3, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [44.737, 45.901, 48.522, 52.016], "shocks": [-10.0, -6.0, 3.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.2912, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 49.0, "g": 0.4853, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100596, "k": 1, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2912, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [20.805, 21.52, 22.713, 24.383], "shocks": [-5.0, -2.0, 3.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.2386, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 23.0, "g": 0.3976, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100071, "k": 6, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2386, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [26.759, 28.389, 30.562, 32.735], "shocks": [-5.0, -2.0, 2.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.5433, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 43.0, "g": 0.9055, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100151, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.5433, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [27.639, 30.673, 32.696, 34.466], "shocks": [-15.0, -3.0, 5.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.2528, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 30.0, "g": 0.4214, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100200, "k": 5, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2528, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [42.482, 42.87, 44.42, 46.357], "shocks": [-8.0, -6.0, 2.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.1937, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 50.0, "g": 0.3229, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100532, "k": 4, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1937, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [47.757, 55.412, 60.124, 61.301], "shocks": [-15.0, -2.0, 6.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.5889, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 56.0, "g": 0.5889, "structure": "inhibitory", "seed": 4100528, "k": 6, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.5889, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [58.437, 61.437, 63.537, 63.837], "shocks": [-15.0, -5.0, 2.0, 3.0], "slope_target": 0.3, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 65.0, "g": 0.6295, "structure": "chain2_hidden_phi", "seed": 2100504, "k": 8, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [43.381, 44.781, 51.781, 52.481], "shocks": [-10.0, -8.0, 2.0, 3.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 51.0, "g": 0.4384, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100362, "k": 7, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [44.243, 44.674, 47.045, 48.553], "shocks": [-5.0, -3.0, 8.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.2155, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 48.0, "g": 0.3592, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100287, "k": 4, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2155, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [48.681, 49.394, 52.009, 52.959], "shocks": [-8.0, -5.0, 6.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.2377, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 49.0, "g": 0.2377, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100474, "k": 1, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2377, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [54.563, 57.34, 59.192, 62.895], "shocks": [-8.0, -2.0, 2.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.4629, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 54.0, "g": 0.4629, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100538, "k": 5, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.4629, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [62.266, 62.674, 66.748, 68.377], "shocks": [-3.0, -2.0, 8.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.4074, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 65.0, "g": 0.4074, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100389, "k": 5, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.4074, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [48.132, 48.821, 49.625, 49.97], "shocks": [-8.0, -2.0, 5.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.1148, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 45.0, "g": 0.1914, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100546, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1148, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [56.307, 60.143, 63.093, 63.684], "shocks": [-15.0, -2.0, 8.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.2951, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 49.0, "g": 0.4918, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100396, "k": 2, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2951, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [34.194, 36.768, 41.915, 43.386], "shocks": [-15.0, -8.0, 6.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.3677, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 37.0, "g": 0.6128, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100312, "k": 4, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.3677, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [51.785, 52.385, 54.785, 55.085], "shocks": [-5.0, -3.0, 5.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.3, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 52.0, "g": 0.726, "structure": "chain2_hidden_phi", "seed": 2100212, "k": 2, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [50.825, 51.853, 58.533, 59.561], "shocks": [-5.0, -3.0, 10.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.5138, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 54.0, "g": 0.8564, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100381, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.5138, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [50.638, 53.638, 56.938, 57.538], "shocks": [-15.0, -5.0, 6.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.3, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 57.0, "g": 0.2897, "structure": "chain2_hidden_phi", "seed": 2100272, "k": 2, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 3 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [57.593, 58.386, 58.703, 59.337], "shocks": [-12.0, -2.0, 2.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.0793, "horizon": 3, "last_poll": 54.0, "g": 0.1876, "structure": "chain3", "seed": 6100529, "k": 8, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.0793, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [37.111, 41.693, 47.039, 52.385], "shocks": [-8.0, -2.0, 5.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.7637, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 46.0, "g": 0.7637, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100090, "k": 6, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.7637, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [42.912, 45.912, 49.512, 51.012], "shocks": [-12.0, -2.0, 10.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.3, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 47.0, "g": 0.9521, "structure": "chain2_hidden_phi", "seed": 2100175, "k": 4, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [46.508, 52.108, 57.708, 61.908], "shocks": [-10.0, -2.0, 6.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 56.0, "g": 0.4342, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100027, "k": 1, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [39.655, 39.996, 41.47, 41.697], "shocks": [-8.0, -5.0, 8.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.1134, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 37.0, "g": 0.189, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100586, "k": 8, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1134, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [45.619, 48.419, 56.119, 56.819], "shocks": [-10.0, -6.0, 5.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 54.0, "g": 0.431, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100015, "k": 8, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [66.137, 70.24, 74.343, 76.688], "shocks": [-12.0, -5.0, 2.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.5862, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 70.0, "g": 0.5862, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100306, "k": 5, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.5862, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [45.509, 48.209, 53.609, 54.509], "shocks": [-15.0, -6.0, 12.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.3, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 56.0, "g": 0.3295, "structure": "chain2_hidden_phi", "seed": 2100348, "k": 8, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [52.658, 52.964, 55.1, 55.405], "shocks": [-6.0, -5.0, 2.0, 3.0], "slope_target": 0.3052, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 53.0, "g": 0.3052, "structure": "lagged", "seed": 5100426, "k": 6, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.3052, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [58.96, 60.097, 62.372, 66.068], "shocks": [-10.0, -6.0, 2.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.2843, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 63.0, "g": 0.4739, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100152, "k": 6, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2843, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [20.558, 24.972, 39.099, 40.864], "shocks": [-15.0, -10.0, 6.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.8829, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 33.0, "g": 0.8829, "structure": "lagged", "seed": 5100174, "k": 3, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.8829, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [38.656, 39.412, 47.732, 49.244], "shocks": [-6.0, -5.0, 6.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.7563, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 44.0, "g": 0.7563, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100314, "k": 3, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.7563, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [23.668, 26.431, 37.483, 42.088], "shocks": [-5.0, -2.0, 10.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.921, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 30.0, "g": 0.921, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100379, "k": 3, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.921, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [43.592, 43.83, 45.737, 46.214], "shocks": [-3.0, -2.0, 6.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.2383, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 48.0, "g": 0.3972, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100099, "k": 4, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2383, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 3 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [47.295, 47.72, 49.701, 50.834], "shocks": [-15.0, -12.0, 2.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.1415, "horizon": 3, "last_poll": 48.0, "g": 0.335, "structure": "chain3", "seed": 6100260, "k": 5, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1415, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [48.971, 49.671, 55.271, 61.571], "shocks": [-6.0, -5.0, 3.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 53.0, "g": 0.6969, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100429, "k": 6, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [27.626, 28.331, 30.213, 31.389], "shocks": [-6.0, -3.0, 5.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.2352, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 37.0, "g": 0.392, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100082, "k": 9, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2352, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [46.616, 48.016, 57.816, 62.716], "shocks": [-8.0, -6.0, 8.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 55.0, "g": 0.5525, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100005, "k": 1, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [49.07, 49.521, 50.036, 50.808], "shocks": [-12.0, -5.0, 3.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.0644, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 43.0, "g": 0.1073, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100018, "k": 5, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.0644, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [27.384, 34.384, 43.484, 44.884], "shocks": [-15.0, -5.0, 8.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 35.0, "g": 0.8656, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100505, "k": 6, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [43.308, 47.208, 49.608, 51.408], "shocks": [-15.0, -2.0, 6.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.3, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 50.0, "g": 0.7169, "structure": "chain2_hidden_phi", "seed": 2100500, "k": 8, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [47.169, 49.269, 61.169, 68.169], "shocks": [-15.0, -12.0, 5.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 58.0, "g": 0.74, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100094, "k": 2, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [33.146, 34.578, 38.395, 39.827], "shocks": [-8.0, -5.0, 3.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.4772, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 38.0, "g": 0.7953, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100057, "k": 4, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.4772, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [38.124, 39.485, 45.611, 49.015], "shocks": [-8.0, -6.0, 3.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.6807, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 46.0, "g": 0.6807, "structure": "lagged", "seed": 5100046, "k": 4, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.6807, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 3 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [47.401, 48.567, 49.733, 50.432], "shocks": [-8.0, -3.0, 2.0, 5.0], "slope_target": 0.2331, "horizon": 3, "last_poll": 51.0, "g": 0.5518, "structure": "chain3", "seed": 6100550, "k": 1, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2331, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [79.225, 86.62, 93.445, 96.289], "shocks": [-15.0, -2.0, 10.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.5688, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 82.0, "g": 0.948, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100433, "k": 5, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.5688, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [56.787, 59.128, 65.567, 71.42], "shocks": [-10.0, -6.0, 5.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.5853, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 66.0, "g": 0.9755, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100209, "k": 9, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.5853, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [60.013, 62.713, 65.113, 66.313], "shocks": [-15.0, -6.0, 2.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.3, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 62.0, "g": 0.8824, "structure": "chain2_hidden_phi", "seed": 2100067, "k": 7, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [42.344, 51.13, 61.868, 68.701], "shocks": [-12.0, -3.0, 8.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.9762, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 62.0, "g": 0.9762, "structure": "inhibitory", "seed": 4100145, "k": 2, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.9762, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [44.798, 47.598, 58.798, 63.698], "shocks": [-12.0, -8.0, 8.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 59.0, "g": 0.6976, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100425, "k": 4, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [36.708, 37.278, 37.849, 38.277], "shocks": [-6.0, -2.0, 2.0, 5.0], "slope_target": 0.1427, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 38.0, "g": 0.1427, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100109, "k": 5, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1427, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [31.706, 32.074, 35.016, 36.119], "shocks": [-6.0, -5.0, 3.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.3677, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 38.0, "g": 0.6128, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100316, "k": 3, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.3677, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [44.953, 45.773, 46.945, 47.531], "shocks": [-12.0, -5.0, 5.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.1172, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 47.0, "g": 0.1172, "structure": "inhibitory", "seed": 4100553, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1172, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [47.082, 49.882, 53.382, 54.782], "shocks": [-6.0, -2.0, 3.0, 5.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 55.0, "g": 0.2237, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100347, "k": 7, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [44.607, 47.022, 50.471, 51.85], "shocks": [-15.0, -8.0, 2.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.3449, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 52.0, "g": 0.3449, "structure": "inhibitory", "seed": 4100448, "k": 3, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.3449, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [47.695, 47.969, 50.157, 50.977], "shocks": [-12.0, -10.0, 6.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.1367, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 48.0, "g": 0.2279, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100015, "k": 1, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1367, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 3 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [48.813, 49.055, 49.538, 49.598], "shocks": [-10.0, -6.0, 2.0, 3.0], "slope_target": 0.0604, "horizon": 3, "last_poll": 50.0, "g": 0.1429, "structure": "chain3", "seed": 6100223, "k": 3, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.0604, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [42.09, 43.118, 44.832, 46.546], "shocks": [-5.0, -2.0, 3.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.3427, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 49.0, "g": 0.5712, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100247, "k": 1, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.3427, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [50.95, 57.25, 62.85, 67.05], "shocks": [-15.0, -6.0, 2.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 64.0, "g": 0.8612, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100218, "k": 4, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [54.228, 56.188, 62.723, 63.377], "shocks": [-8.0, -5.0, 5.0, 6.0], "slope_target": 0.6535, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 67.0, "g": 0.6535, "structure": "inhibitory", "seed": 4100364, "k": 4, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.6535, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [67.027, 68.827, 72.127, 75.127], "shocks": [-12.0, -6.0, 5.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.3, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 58.0, "g": 0.9646, "structure": "chain2_hidden_phi", "seed": 2100559, "k": 4, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [50.104, 51.056, 51.901, 52.958], "shocks": [-15.0, -6.0, 2.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.1057, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 50.0, "g": 0.1057, "structure": "lagged", "seed": 5100112, "k": 4, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1057, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [71.613, 75.381, 85.071, 86.147], "shocks": [-15.0, -8.0, 10.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.5383, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 90.0, "g": 0.8972, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100574, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.5383, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 3 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [37.751, 39.201, 40.65, 41.893], "shocks": [-12.0, -5.0, 2.0, 8.0], "slope_target": 0.2071, "horizon": 3, "last_poll": 44.0, "g": 0.4901, "structure": "chain3", "seed": 6100581, "k": 6, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2071, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [66.979, 68.6, 72.382, 73.193], "shocks": [-8.0, -2.0, 12.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.2702, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 57.0, "g": 0.4503, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100566, "k": 3, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.2702, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [49.2, 51.127, 53.054, 54.018], "shocks": [-15.0, -5.0, 5.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.1927, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 54.0, "g": 0.1927, "structure": "echo", "seed": 3100493, "k": 2, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1927, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [39.613, 40.072, 41.121, 41.581], "shocks": [-15.0, -8.0, 8.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.0656, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 45.0, "g": 0.1093, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100493, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.0656, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [38.832, 42.38, 46.814, 53.022], "shocks": [-6.0, -2.0, 3.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.8869, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 50.0, "g": 0.8869, "structure": "lagged", "seed": 5100590, "k": 8, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.8869, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [50.609, 55.253, 65.206, 68.523], "shocks": [-12.0, -5.0, 10.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.6635, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 53.0, "g": 0.6635, "structure": "inhibitory", "seed": 4100153, "k": 4, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.6635, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [48.741, 48.877, 50.368, 51.587], "shocks": [-6.0, -5.0, 6.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.1355, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 49.0, "g": 0.2259, "structure": "chain2", "seed": 1100494, "k": 2, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1355, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [33.54, 35.038, 44.026, 50.018], "shocks": [-12.0, -10.0, 2.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.749, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 40.0, "g": 0.749, "structure": "inhibitory", "seed": 4100369, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.749, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe 2 signed news values (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 2 hidden opinions you never see directly — yo... | {"targets": [26.986, 28.178, 30.364, 31.357], "shocks": [-12.0, -6.0, 5.0, 10.0], "slope_target": 0.1987, "horizon": 2, "last_poll": 27.0, "g": 0.3312, "structure": "two_news_split", "seed": 7100124, "k": 7, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.1987, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There is a hidden opinion you never see directly — you o... | {"targets": [39.419, 44.319, 54.819, 56.219], "shocks": [-12.0, -5.0, 10.0, 12.0], "slope_target": 0.7, "horizon": 1, "last_poll": 43.0, "g": 0.498, "structure": "hidden_phi", "seed": 100238, "k": 7, "recover": false, "true_gain": null, "control": false} |
You are forecasting a weekly tracking poll for an election campaign.
Each week you observe a signed news value (positive = good for the candidate, negative = bad) and the resulting poll (support, 0-100).
Here is exactly how this world works, the same every week. There are 3 hidden opinions you never see directly — you... | {"targets": [55.583, 57.919, 64.148, 66.094], "shocks": [-12.0, -6.0, 10.0, 15.0], "slope_target": 0.3893, "horizon": 3, "last_poll": 30.0, "g": 0.9214, "structure": "chain3", "seed": 6100362, "k": 8, "recover": true, "true_gain": 0.3893, "control": false} |
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