File size: 10,469 Bytes
44084af
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
"""H04's postmortem and its packet (R1): traffic to a service stops while its pods stay up.

Four narratives (an ingress host rule, an edge WAF rule, traffic-split weights, a DNS cut-over). Every one keeps
the facts the checks read: the floors are in the catalog (action item 1, done), and action item 2 asks for a page
when the service is under its floor for 5 minutes with its pods up, inside 15 minutes of traffic stopping. The
evidence agrees with itself: the upstream flaps in bursts, the error-ratio page's firing and resolve times come
from replaying the repo's own rule over the pull (`replay_ratio`), the ingress shows the same error share as the
app while traffic flows, and what the edge did during the outage is in the packet.
"""

from __future__ import annotations

import math

from .. import promsim as ps
from . import evidence as ev
from . import then, variety
from .items import Ticket
from .people import crew
from .vocab import public_zone
from .prose_svc import _day, _pd_rows, paged_team, unique_key
from .xscen import counter_from_rates, http_series, pods, rs_hash, series, up_values

NARRATIVES = ("ingress", "edge", "weights", "dns")


def replay_ratio(raws: list, thr: float, window: int = 5, for_: int = 10) -> tuple[int | None, int | None]:
    """(minute the error-ratio page fires, minute it resolves) for `sum(rate(5xx[5m])) / sum(rate(all[5m])) > thr`
    with `for: 10m`, evaluated every minute the way Prometheus extrapolates `rate()`."""
    n = max(len(r.values) for r in raws) - 1
    pending = fired = None
    for t in range(n + 1):
        bad = tot = 0
        for r in raws:
            x = ps.extrapolated(r.values, t, window)
            if x is None:
                continue
            tot += x
            if r.labels.get("code", "").startswith("5"):
                bad += x
        cond = tot > 0 and bad / tot > thr
        if cond and pending is None:
            pending = t
        if cond and fired is None and pending is not None and t - pending >= for_:
            fired = t
        if not cond:
            if fired is not None:
                return fired, t
            pending = None
    return fired, None


def _flapping(rng, T: float, n: int, err_on: int, drop: int) -> list[float]:
    """Bursts of 2-4 minutes at 2.4-5x the threshold, lulls of 1-2 minutes at 1.3-1.8x: over a 5m window the ratio
    stays above the threshold from the second minute on, and the last minute before the change is a burst."""
    err = [rng.uniform(0.002, 0.006) for _ in range(n + 1)]
    m, burst = err_on, True
    while m < drop:
        k = rng.randint(2, 4) if burst else rng.randint(1, 2)
        for x in range(m, min(drop, m + k)):
            err[x] = T * (rng.uniform(2.4, 5.0) if burst else rng.uniform(1.3, 1.8))
        m += k
        burst = not burst
    err[err_on] = err[err_on + 1] = T * rng.uniform(2.8, 3.4)
    err[drop - 1] = max(err[drop - 1], T * rng.uniform(2.6, 3.6))
    return err


def _ingress(rng, w, s, n, rps, err, host, drop, back, kind) -> tuple[list, int]:
    """nginx_ingress_controller_requests for the service's host, per controller pod: the app's own status mix while
    traffic flows (`rps` is what clients sent); during the outage whatever the narrative says the ingress did.
    Returns (series, requests that failed during the outage)."""
    ctrl = pods(rng, "ingress-nginx-controller", 2, rs_hash(rng))
    out, lost = [], 0
    for i, cp in enumerate(ctrl):
        share = [0.5 + (0.04 if i == 0 else -0.04)] * (n + 1)
        base = {"controller_class": "k8s.io/ingress-nginx", "controller_namespace": "ingress-nginx", "controller_pod": cp,
                "host": host, "method": "GET", "path": "/", "job": "ingress-nginx", "instance": f"10.{rng.randint(16, 31)}.0.{rng.randint(2, 99)}:10254"}
        app = {**base, "ingress": s.name, "namespace": w.namespace, "service": s.name}
        flow = [0.0 if drop <= m < back else r * sh for m, (r, sh) in enumerate(zip(rps, share))]
        for status, frac in (("200", lambda e: (1 - e) * 0.97), ("404", lambda e: (1 - e) * 0.03), ("500", lambda e: e)):
            rates = [x * frac(e) for x, e in zip(flow, err)]
            out.append(series("nginx_ingress_controller_requests", {**app, "status": status},
                              counter_from_rates(rng, rates, rng.randint(10**5, 10**6) if status == "200" else rng.randint(200, 4000))))
        gone = [r * sh if drop <= m < back else 0.0 for m, (r, sh) in enumerate(zip(rps, share))]
        lost += int(sum(gone) * 60)
        if kind == "ingress":   # the host matched no rule: the controller's default backend answered 404
            lab = {k: v for k, v in base.items() if k != "path"}
            vals = counter_from_rates(rng, gone, 0)
            first = next((m for m, v in enumerate(vals) if v), None)
            out.append(series("nginx_ingress_controller_requests", {**lab, "status": "404"},
                              [None] * first + vals[first:] if first else vals))
        elif kind == "weights":   # both backends at weight 0: the ingress answered 503 itself
            vals = counter_from_rates(rng, gone, 0)
            first = next((m for m, v in enumerate(vals) if v), 0)
            out.append(series("nginx_ingress_controller_requests", {**app, "status": "503"}, [None] * first + vals[first:]))
    return out, lost


def _cdn_csv(clock, rps, err, drop, back, host) -> str:
    """The CDN's per-minute status export for the host (what the edge answered, before anything reached us)."""
    rows = ["minute_utc,host,requests,status_2xx,status_403,status_4xx_other,status_5xx"]
    for m in range(len(rps)):
        r = rps[m] * 60
        if drop <= m < back:
            rows.append(f"{clock.utc(m):%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M}Z,{host},{round(r)},0,{round(r)},0,0")
        else:
            e = round(r * err[m])
            rows.append(f"{clock.utc(m):%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M}Z,{host},{round(r)},{round(r * 0.97) - e},0,{round(r * 0.03)},{e}")
    return "\n".join(rows) + "\n"


def public_domain(w) -> str:
    """The zone customers use: the internal zone without its `corp.`/`int.` prefix."""
    return public_zone(w.domain)


def h04(item, w, rng) -> Ticket:
    s = w.svc(item.p["svc"])
    team = paged_team(w, s.name)
    key = unique_key(w, w.company.key, rng.randint(2300, 2600))
    pm = f"PM-{rng.randint(300, 480)}"
    date = _day(w, rng, 6, 20, weekday=True)
    clock = ev.Clock(date, rng.choice(["13:40", "10:15", "19:05", "11:20", "15:35", "09:50"]), w.company.utc_offset,
                     w.company.tz_label)
    n, T = 110, float(s.err_thr)
    err_on, drop, back = rng.randint(6, 12), rng.randint(27, 31), rng.randint(80, 95)
    ev_rps = s.rps * rng.uniform(1.6, 2.2)
    err = _flapping(rng, T, n, err_on, drop)
    # what clients sent; when traffic comes back they retry what they queued for a quarter of an hour
    offered = [ev_rps * rng.uniform(0.94, 1.06) * (1 + (1.3 * math.exp(-(m - back) / 5) if m >= back else 0))
               for m in range(n + 1)]
    rps = [0.0 if drop <= m < back else x for m, x in enumerate(offered)]   # what reached the service
    raws = http_series(rng, w, s.name, n, rps, err, s.pods, post=rng.uniform(0.1, 0.4))
    fire, res = replay_ratio(raws, T)
    if fire is None or res is None or not (fire < drop <= res):
        raise RuntimeError(f"H04 packet for {s.name}: the error-ratio page fires at {fire}, resolves at {res}")
    ups = [series("up", {"service": s.name, "job": s.name, "namespace": w.namespace, "instance": i, "pod": p}, up_values(n))
           for i, p in sorted({(r.labels["instance"], r.labels["pod"]) for r in raws})]
    kind = variety.card(w, "H04:pm", list(NARRATIVES))
    host = f"{s.name}.{public_domain(w)}"
    edge, lost = _ingress(rng, w, s, n, offered, err, host, drop, back, kind)
    path = f"incidents/{pm}"
    files = {f"{path}/query-range/{s.name}-requests.json": ev.query_range(raws, clock),
             f"{path}/query-range/{s.name}-up.json": ev.query_range(ups, clock),
             f"{path}/query-range/ingress-{s.name}.json": ev.query_range(edge, clock)}
    if kind == "edge":
        files[f"{path}/cdn-{host}-status.csv"] = _cdn_csv(clock, offered, err, drop, back, host)
    alert = f"{s.camel}HighErrorRatio"
    lab = then.labels(w, alert, s.name) or {"alertname": alert, "service": s.name, "severity": "page", "team": team}
    files[f"{path}/slack-alerts.txt"] = "\n".join([
        f"{clock.hm(fire)} {then.title(w, lab, receiver_prefix='slack-')}",
        f"{clock.hm(res)} {then.title(w, lab, 'resolved', receiver_prefix='slack-')}"]) + "\n"
    p = crew(w, rng, team, 3)
    found = drop + rng.randint(35, 45)
    k1 = unique_key(w, w.company.key, rng.randint(2100, 2290))
    k3 = unique_key(w, "PLAT", rng.randint(400, 900))
    from .prose_pm_text import postmortem
    files[f"{path}/postmortem.md"] = postmortem(kind, w, rng, s=s, pm=pm, date=date, clock=clock, team=team, p=p,
                                                alert=alert, fire=fire, res=res, drop=drop, back=back, found=found,
                                                err_on=err_on, lost=lost, keys=(k1, key, k3), host=host)
    page_at = clock.iso(fire)
    files[f"{path}/pagerduty-incidents.csv"] = ev.pagerduty_csv(_pd_rows(rng, w, clock, [
        {"created_on": page_at, "service_name": f"{then.pager(w, lab) or team} (prod)", "title": then.title(w, lab),
         "urgency": "high", "status": "resolved", "acknowledged_by": p[0].full, "resolved_on": clock.iso(res)}]))
    title, body = variety.card(w, "H04", [
        (f"{pm} action item 2: page on {s.name} traffic loss",
         f"Item 2 of the action items in `{path}/postmortem.md`. The floors went into the catalog last week; nothing "
         f"reads them yet."),
        (f"{s.name}: no page when traffic stopped ({pm}, item 2)",
         f"See the postmortem and the pulls in `{path}/`. {p[2].first} asked that the page lands with "
         f"{w.svc(s.name).team}, who own {s.name} (ownership.yaml)."),
        (f"follow-up from {pm}: {s.name} traffic floor page",
         f"The postmortem's second action item is ours. Catalog floors are merged (item 1), so the page can use them. "
         f"Packet and writeup: `{path}/`."),
        (f"{pm} action 2 ({s.name})",
         f"Picking up action item 2 from `{path}/postmortem.md`. {p[1].first} would like it done before the next "
         f"ingress or DNS change window.")])
    return Ticket(key, title, body, p[2], files)