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releases/populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618/reform_validation.json

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+{
+ "schema_version": 1,
+ "baseline_period": 2024,
+ "scoring_window": "see per-reform jct.window",
+ "reforms": [
+  {
+   "id": "jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.salt_deduction.revenue_loss",
+   "name": "jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.salt_deduction.revenue_loss",
+   "category": "JCT tax expenditure",
+   "in_sample": true,
+   "period": 2024,
+   "description": null,
+   "jct": {
+    "score": 21700000000.0,
+    "score_type": "conventional",
+    "window": "annual",
+    "source": "JCT tax-expenditure (calibration target)",
+    "source_url": null
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": 19788501837.1552,
+    "period": 2024,
+    "window": "annual",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": null,
+    "reform_total": null
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.medical_expense_deduction.revenue_loss",
+   "name": "jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.medical_expense_deduction.revenue_loss",
+   "category": "JCT tax expenditure",
+   "in_sample": true,
+   "period": 2024,
+   "description": null,
+   "jct": {
+    "score": 11400000000.0,
+    "score_type": "conventional",
+    "window": "annual",
+    "source": "JCT tax-expenditure (calibration target)",
+    "source_url": null
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": 10395119084.5264,
+    "period": 2024,
+    "window": "annual",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": null,
+    "reform_total": null
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.charitable_deduction.revenue_loss",
+   "name": "jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.charitable_deduction.revenue_loss",
+   "category": "JCT tax expenditure",
+   "in_sample": true,
+   "period": 2024,
+   "description": null,
+   "jct": {
+    "score": 60400000000.0,
+    "score_type": "conventional",
+    "window": "annual",
+    "source": "JCT tax-expenditure (calibration target)",
+    "source_url": null
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": 60790715063.98411,
+    "period": 2024,
+    "window": "annual",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": null,
+    "reform_total": null
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.deductible_mortgage_interest.revenue_loss",
+   "name": "jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.deductible_mortgage_interest.revenue_loss",
+   "category": "JCT tax expenditure",
+   "in_sample": true,
+   "period": 2024,
+   "description": null,
+   "jct": {
+    "score": 24800000000.0,
+    "score_type": "conventional",
+    "window": "annual",
+    "source": "JCT tax-expenditure (calibration target)",
+    "source_url": null
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": 22441244594.503975,
+    "period": 2024,
+    "window": "annual",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": null,
+    "reform_total": null
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.qualified_business_income_deduction.revenue_loss",
+   "name": "jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.qualified_business_income_deduction.revenue_loss",
+   "category": "JCT tax expenditure",
+   "in_sample": true,
+   "period": 2024,
+   "description": null,
+   "jct": {
+    "score": 63100000000.0,
+    "score_type": "conventional",
+    "window": "annual",
+    "source": "JCT tax-expenditure (calibration target)",
+    "source_url": null
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": 56081584763.08349,
+    "period": 2024,
+    "window": "annual",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": null,
+    "reform_total": null
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "obbba_no_tax_on_tips",
+   "name": "OBBBA \u2014 No tax on tips (tip income deduction)",
+   "category": "OBBBA",
+   "in_sample": false,
+   "period": 2026,
+   "description": "Deduction for qualified tip income (sunsets 12/31/2028). Validated by reverting the tip-income deduction cap to 0 over the provision window and comparing the simulated FY2026 income-tax revenue loss to the JCT FY2026 line.",
+   "jct": {
+    "score": -10121000000.0,
+    "score_type": "conventional",
+    "window": "FY2026",
+    "source": "JCX-35-25, Ch.2 line 1 (FY2026)",
+    "source_url": "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2025/jcx-35-25/"
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": -2897155105.3256836,
+    "period": 2026,
+    "window": "FY2026",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": 2321820267233.2026,
+    "reform_total": 2324717422338.5283
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "obbba_no_tax_on_overtime",
+   "name": "OBBBA \u2014 No tax on overtime (overtime income deduction)",
+   "category": "OBBBA",
+   "in_sample": false,
+   "period": 2026,
+   "description": "Deduction for qualified overtime premium income (sunsets 12/31/2028). Validated by reverting the overtime-income deduction cap to 0 over the provision window and comparing the simulated FY2026 income-tax revenue loss to the JCT FY2026 line.",
+   "jct": {
+    "score": -32806000000.0,
+    "score_type": "conventional",
+    "window": "FY2026",
+    "source": "JCX-35-25, Ch.2 line 2 (FY2026)",
+    "source_url": "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2025/jcx-35-25/"
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": -12077608754.67871,
+    "period": 2026,
+    "window": "FY2026",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": 2321820267233.2026,
+    "reform_total": 2333897875987.8813
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "te_ctc",
+   "name": "Child Tax Credit (incl. ODC)",
+   "category": "Tax expenditure",
+   "in_sample": false,
+   "period": 2024,
+   "description": "Repeal the Child Tax Credit and Credit for Other Dependents. JCT line is 'Credit for children and other dependents'.",
+   "jct": {
+    "score": 173800000000.0,
+    "score_type": "tax_expenditure",
+    "window": "FY2024",
+    "source": "JCT JCX-48-24 Table 1 (rev 127.1B + outlay 46.7B)",
+    "source_url": "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2024/jcx-48-24/"
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": 99914880610.08032,
+    "period": 2024,
+    "window": "FY2024",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": 2015227206669.2256,
+    "reform_total": 2115142087279.306
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "te_eitc",
+   "name": "Earned Income Tax Credit",
+   "category": "Tax expenditure",
+   "in_sample": true,
+   "period": 2024,
+   "description": "Repeal the EITC. Mostly refundable, so the bulk is the outlay portion. The dataset is calibrated to SOI EITC-by-AGI targets, so this is an in-sample check.",
+   "jct": {
+    "score": 124200000000.0,
+    "score_type": "tax_expenditure",
+    "window": "FY2024",
+    "source": "JCT JCX-48-24 Table 1 (rev 66.9B + outlay 57.3B)",
+    "source_url": "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2024/jcx-48-24/"
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": 70128537267.84546,
+    "period": 2024,
+    "window": "FY2024",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": 2015227206669.2256,
+    "reform_total": 2085355743937.071
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "te_cdcc",
+   "name": "Child & Dependent Care Credit",
+   "category": "Tax expenditure",
+   "in_sample": false,
+   "period": 2024,
+   "description": "Repeal the CDCC. JCT bundles it with the employer-provided-childcare exclusion, so the clean CDCC-only benchmark is Treasury's.",
+   "jct": {
+    "score": 3690000000.0,
+    "score_type": "tax_expenditure",
+    "window": "FY2024",
+    "source": "Treasury Tax Expenditures FY2025, Table 1 item 120",
+    "source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/tax-policy/tax-expenditures"
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": 2791568785.1413574,
+    "period": 2024,
+    "window": "FY2024",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": 2015227206669.2256,
+    "reform_total": 2018018775454.367
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "te_standard_deduction",
+   "name": "Standard deduction (no official benchmark)",
+   "category": "Tax expenditure",
+   "in_sample": false,
+   "period": 2024,
+   "description": "Repeal the standard deduction. Both JCT and Treasury treat the regular standard deduction as part of the normal-tax baseline, so there is no published tax-expenditure figure; shown as a repeal magnitude only.",
+   "jct": {
+    "score": null,
+    "score_type": "none",
+    "window": "FY2024",
+    "source": "Not scored \u2014 standard deduction is baseline in both JCT and Treasury",
+    "source_url": "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2024/jcx-48-24/"
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": 280961006459.0586,
+    "period": 2024,
+    "window": "FY2024",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": 2015227206669.2256,
+    "reform_total": 2296188213128.284
+   }
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "te_itemized_total",
+   "name": "All itemized deductions (no combined benchmark)",
+   "category": "Tax expenditure",
+   "in_sample": false,
+   "period": 2024,
+   "description": "Repeal all itemized deductions at once. Neither JCT nor Treasury publishes a single combined itemized-deduction tax-expenditure figure (only components: SALT, mortgage, charitable, medical, \u2026), so this carries no benchmark; the individual components are validated in-sample. Shown as a repeal magnitude only.",
+   "jct": {
+    "score": null,
+    "score_type": "none",
+    "window": "FY2024",
+    "source": "Not published as a combined figure \u2014 JCT/Treasury score itemized components individually",
+    "source_url": "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2024/jcx-48-24/"
+   },
+   "populace": {
+    "budget_effect": 85003450001.77832,
+    "period": 2024,
+    "window": "FY2024",
+    "measure": "income_tax",
+    "baseline_total": 2015227206669.2256,
+    "reform_total": 2100230656671.004
+   }
+  }
+ ],
+ "release_id": "populace-us-2024-incumbent-improved-996401a-20260618"
+}