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PROVENANCE.json

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+{
+  "amendment_path": "experiments/gate-contribution-factorial/AMENDMENT.md",
+  "excluded": [],
+  "experiment_slug": "gate-contribution-factorial",
+  "files": {
+    "adjudication_applied_manifest.json": "6754b40ce06ba13044ed6ad1b1be5156f92f5970216a591e7d7d866568e92f7a",
+    "adjudication_graded_manifest.json": "61d108f6a0b921f6ed85033926dfc99c42edffa26b35ed69779dcd481c285307",
+    "factorial_report.json": "80d7e8274bc857e92fa9b0eeedd2f30366e6aba42d12fb3773baf63a7d88ac7e",
+    "heldback_decoy_summary.json": "ea060fc6b35edb135a0ac9f7dab2979a196d153e800910a6733ac569b8edbb26",
+    "mistral_direction_provenance.json": "4ab6f13de8365b2bea334a1e979f0de75f46d1d3b5fc50e80d66b6bb9d46b7cd",
+    "pool_manifest.json": "4e791bef4414dc1ca6a951eb57dc0bd271c5d0b3cd1600b9de0c9fe43138ddc3",
+    "random_seed_ledger.json": "56bd9c1f0a033751d6c66878213f01b5a56deeda30998fe4be91aba7bbd57039",
+    "sc1_verification_summary.json": "cc3ffbfe7ddb5c0d40fc19c2864db9b385ba07634f7a5c4a72d9542802781aea",
+    "sc1_verification_summary_v2.json": "a92a7b66b74208ea8705775d77ae0fbd2c7658f798df31582684a2c8e6b92713",
+    "staging_manifest.json": "d73b65f55184645c793a89c8c7a821e4b074f9e0fb4e0a404f9153cb4df9fd72",
+    "subsample_manifest.json": "b424ad776b9ae379ae7621e014148c15c93708fd50a1f77b0ea12730bc1e72e9"
+  },
+  "generation_date": "2026-08-27T22:26:10.707614+00:00",
+  "instrument_config_sha256": {
+    "apply_adjudication.py": "3c488d233ac1c17bcf27b43f20154f00ec3168f5b304f64c105b3951dfff0798",
+    "build_pool.py": "827ab73b1377e42eebd7bcf2fae704fdb29a4634c78df059f67284a9e865c26d",
+    "cell.yaml": "c4939dbdcfe9588750eb5cdc38f4f9d9f0613c8f532dffd9edbc333db6f44047",
+    "common.py": "a8f6d2e051817a3b97ab4b7448b4a6c1047b74e9ab4028a9f6d4edd1f675b07d",
+    "compute_seed_ledger.py": "ad0027f518244a5b24cdecbee82da9b4218a45951c19d2672f496c43bc699cf3",
+    "config.py": "eec61e23c8e8a2db2a5bfbe91e4b38892a6e6a55405b4f592dbdb24b147fa995",
+    "criterion.py": "7253e20e394f774e299c2b99f37f1e4cbad52cacb4b29fec0184a7194ebffadd",
+    "detector_v2.py": "161fd8548ec0dad1daabd590870654f1c32bd0daf21e6026a2c18c83e83991ae",
+    "detector_v2_patterns.yaml": "36422e01ae03008c2f71f180158c63950e14f8dfc1279c4e654c89fb831841d9",
+    "direction_draw.py": "ade97b9f7152a3a527194f119f680faf7f72c6268dbc259ab754a1d8f9e72a26",
+    "gate_construction.py": "203c9e3dc187241d4f04f8613f84c3cf578ddac95c1cc2e312f11c18a28c45a8",
+    "gates.yaml": "0fb40a9d3b28d562838e6978319082d270f2e3dcf4f9d08d385a801b629cee66",
+    "gates_lib.py": "905b61a56c2e12937cfd2214af3da18fd9fabe241e52edbba2e6f7f1479e9b1d",
+    "gen_lib.py": "a4ee57ec67f187aefe1db67db3f051f9e1d402b87bab89bc4188af45f4940e2a",
+    "grader.py": "eb395542d4163c05417f303df04782e2ebcdcd104b5181aa0af2e966b93b1df9",
+    "heldback_decoys.py": "979163e5e00db1011a43fb12a73b650fa2d1dcc3dd696501931de26ddd8e0a17",
+    "mistral_direction_provenance.py": "0f21f1654205ea9a112fbdcdeb578233533adfcce6fd36aff52d47f01f302971",
+    "render.py": "9df8c181475ded6b9029379bd49d8486c54314b35a529284fdc7a5d5f12ee87f",
+    "report.py": "814925e358d01a0f59980cfba4259f96a83805cb9441777ac43602ca3aeea2b6",
+    "row_pool.py": "80de9817e63cdf102935a5d27f2449ede9038080571897a6d35f06b867c3c07e",
+    "run_factorial.py": "3608c176633b187326e8ee37bea926801b1b80eb612aaf92cb1c60466877a439",
+    "sc1_checks.py": "dd73f29acbac62abc791924abfd7d5e993abe046ac22756a0551ff3835066ecf",
+    "sc1_verify_dosed_writes.py": "b3e1c93d7c2f69592a0e6ef4951d93cff46404d7bd2021a19b794ac5d0a36e64",
+    "staging.py": "a902ffbdc893ffee98df62b74da0462c245f5b3459cf521cbb705dafa0f66bc6",
+    "steer_lib.py": "46951e37e919b29532db0319b6e9691f769aef74a914e73c7bd309676e9fe190",
+    "subsample.py": "993f3561dfb72071bf88a736490e8ce7f1e0e97f0f22e6e91576e8fa3767719c",
+    "test_factorial_smoke.py": "0e32b2476b5459bdeaa731ddc2b36575b3ff04f6c712688c87d6c611d83ee572",
+    "test_report_smoke.py": "9d70b6f91c420410c229a17122ff047dcc4033152bee0ad505b574fcb13ae991"
+  },
+  "license_gate_excluded": {},
+  "repo_commit_sha": "fab3cad66e9a4c9aa18cf737d48423dfeeacec66",
+  "shape": "aggregate",
+  "sources_present": {}
+}

README.md

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+---
+license: other
+task_categories:
+- text-classification
+language:
+- en
+pretty_name: gate-contribution-factorial data exhaust (aggregate)
+tags:
+- epistemic-humility
+- mechanistic-interpretability
+- data-exhaust
+---
+
+# gate-contribution-factorial -- aggregate exhaust
+
+Aggregate-only: every file committed under this experiment's analysis-committed/ tree (dose-response tables, direction fits, gate AUROCs, manifests, and any other analysis artifact), copied byte-for-byte. No source question text, aliases, or per-row generation text -- analysis-committed/ never carries those.
+
+HF repo: `professorsynapse/eh-gate-contribution-factorial`
+
+## Provenance
+
+- Experiment: `experiments/gate-contribution-factorial`
+- Amendment: `experiments/gate-contribution-factorial/AMENDMENT.md`
+- Repo commit SHA: `fab3cad66e9a4c9aa18cf737d48423dfeeacec66`
+- Generated: `2026-08-27T22:26:10.707614+00:00`
+- Pinned instrument config sha256:
+  - `apply_adjudication.py`: `3c488d233ac1c17bcf27b43f20154f00ec3168f5b304f64c105b3951dfff0798`
+  - `build_pool.py`: `827ab73b1377e42eebd7bcf2fae704fdb29a4634c78df059f67284a9e865c26d`
+  - `cell.yaml`: `c4939dbdcfe9588750eb5cdc38f4f9d9f0613c8f532dffd9edbc333db6f44047`
+  - `common.py`: `a8f6d2e051817a3b97ab4b7448b4a6c1047b74e9ab4028a9f6d4edd1f675b07d`
+  - `compute_seed_ledger.py`: `ad0027f518244a5b24cdecbee82da9b4218a45951c19d2672f496c43bc699cf3`
+  - `config.py`: `eec61e23c8e8a2db2a5bfbe91e4b38892a6e6a55405b4f592dbdb24b147fa995`
+  - `criterion.py`: `7253e20e394f774e299c2b99f37f1e4cbad52cacb4b29fec0184a7194ebffadd`
+  - `detector_v2.py`: `161fd8548ec0dad1daabd590870654f1c32bd0daf21e6026a2c18c83e83991ae`
+  - `detector_v2_patterns.yaml`: `36422e01ae03008c2f71f180158c63950e14f8dfc1279c4e654c89fb831841d9`
+  - `direction_draw.py`: `ade97b9f7152a3a527194f119f680faf7f72c6268dbc259ab754a1d8f9e72a26`
+  - `gate_construction.py`: `203c9e3dc187241d4f04f8613f84c3cf578ddac95c1cc2e312f11c18a28c45a8`
+  - `gates.yaml`: `0fb40a9d3b28d562838e6978319082d270f2e3dcf4f9d08d385a801b629cee66`
+  - `gates_lib.py`: `905b61a56c2e12937cfd2214af3da18fd9fabe241e52edbba2e6f7f1479e9b1d`
+  - `gen_lib.py`: `a4ee57ec67f187aefe1db67db3f051f9e1d402b87bab89bc4188af45f4940e2a`
+  - `grader.py`: `eb395542d4163c05417f303df04782e2ebcdcd104b5181aa0af2e966b93b1df9`
+  - `heldback_decoys.py`: `979163e5e00db1011a43fb12a73b650fa2d1dcc3dd696501931de26ddd8e0a17`
+  - `mistral_direction_provenance.py`: `0f21f1654205ea9a112fbdcdeb578233533adfcce6fd36aff52d47f01f302971`
+  - `render.py`: `9df8c181475ded6b9029379bd49d8486c54314b35a529284fdc7a5d5f12ee87f`
+  - `report.py`: `814925e358d01a0f59980cfba4259f96a83805cb9441777ac43602ca3aeea2b6`
+  - `row_pool.py`: `80de9817e63cdf102935a5d27f2449ede9038080571897a6d35f06b867c3c07e`
+  - `run_factorial.py`: `3608c176633b187326e8ee37bea926801b1b80eb612aaf92cb1c60466877a439`
+  - `sc1_checks.py`: `dd73f29acbac62abc791924abfd7d5e993abe046ac22756a0551ff3835066ecf`
+  - `sc1_verify_dosed_writes.py`: `b3e1c93d7c2f69592a0e6ef4951d93cff46404d7bd2021a19b794ac5d0a36e64`
+  - `staging.py`: `a902ffbdc893ffee98df62b74da0462c245f5b3459cf521cbb705dafa0f66bc6`
+  - `steer_lib.py`: `46951e37e919b29532db0319b6e9691f769aef74a914e73c7bd309676e9fe190`
+  - `subsample.py`: `993f3561dfb72071bf88a736490e8ce7f1e0e97f0f22e6e91576e8fa3767719c`
+  - `test_factorial_smoke.py`: `0e32b2476b5459bdeaa731ddc2b36575b3ff04f6c712688c87d6c611d83ee572`
+  - `test_report_smoke.py`: `9d70b6f91c420410c229a17122ff047dcc4033152bee0ad505b574fcb13ae991`
+
+## File inventory
+
+11 file(s) total, by top-level path:
+
+- `adjudication_applied_manifest.json`: 1 file(s)
+- `adjudication_graded_manifest.json`: 1 file(s)
+- `factorial_report.json`: 1 file(s)
+- `heldback_decoy_summary.json`: 1 file(s)
+- `mistral_direction_provenance.json`: 1 file(s)
+- `pool_manifest.json`: 1 file(s)
+- `random_seed_ledger.json`: 1 file(s)
+- `sc1_verification_summary.json`: 1 file(s)
+- `sc1_verification_summary_v2.json`: 1 file(s)
+- `staging_manifest.json`: 1 file(s)
+- `subsample_manifest.json`: 1 file(s)
+
+## License-gate exclusions
+
+(none)
+
+## Hard-exclusion skips
+
+Files whose relative path under `analysis-committed/` matched a structural hard-exclusion pattern and were skipped (not copied):
+
+(none)
+
+## Files
+
+See `PROVENANCE.json` for the full machine-readable file list (relative path -> sha256) and the hard-exclusion skip list with reasons.
+
+## Release Boundary
+
+Built by `.skills/data-exhaust/scripts/build_exhaust_dataset.py`, gated by
+`.skills/data-exhaust/reference/license-gates.md`, and verified by
+`.skills/data-exhaust/scripts/verify_exhaust.py` before any upload. Hard
+exclusions (OpenMOSS/Cheng IDK, `bridge_llama2_7b_chat`) are enforced
+structurally in code, not only by this table.

adjudication_applied_manifest.json

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+{
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+  "pooled_clear_positive": {
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+    "clear_positive_correct_pooled": 1295,
+    "clear_positive_total_pooled": 1447,
+    "floor": 0.6,
+    "n_shards": 28,
+    "passed": true
+  },
+  "pooled_failure_cells": [],
+  "shards": {
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+        "shard_id": "mistral7b_v03_shard_00",
+        "status": "PASS"
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+        "shard_id": "mistral7b_v03_shard_01",
+        "status": "PASS"
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+    },
+    "mistral7b_v03_shard_02": {
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+    "mistral7b_v03_shard_03": {
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+        "shard_id": "mistral7b_v03_shard_07",
+        "status": "PASS"
+      }
+    },
+    "mistral7b_v03_shard_08": {
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+    "qwen35_4b_shard_06": {
+      "cell": "qwen35_4b",
+      "cg1": {
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+        "clear_negative_agreement": 1.0,
+        "clear_positive_agreement": 0.7058823529411765,
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+        "clear_positive_total": 51,
+        "passed": true,
+        "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_06",
+        "status": "PASS"
+      }
+    },
+    "qwen35_4b_shard_07": {
+      "cell": "qwen35_4b",
+      "cg1": {
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+        "clear_negative_agreement": 1.0,
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+        "passed": true,
+        "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_07",
+        "status": "PASS"
+      }
+    },
+    "qwen35_4b_shard_08": {
+      "cell": "qwen35_4b",
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+        "passed": true,
+        "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_08",
+        "status": "PASS"
+      }
+    },
+    "qwen35_4b_shard_09": {
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+        "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_09",
+        "status": "PASS"
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+    },
+    "qwen35_4b_shard_10": {
+      "cell": "qwen35_4b",
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+        "passed": true,
+        "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_10",
+        "status": "PASS"
+      }
+    },
+    "qwen35_4b_shard_11": {
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+      "cg1": {
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+        "passed": true,
+        "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_11",
+        "status": "PASS"
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+    },
+    "qwen35_4b_shard_12": {
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+        "clear_positive_agreement": 0.7843137254901961,
+        "clear_positive_floor_met": true,
+        "clear_positive_total": 51,
+        "passed": true,
+        "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_12",
+        "status": "PASS"
+      }
+    },
+    "qwen35_4b_shard_13": {
+      "cell": "qwen35_4b",
+      "cg1": {
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+        "clear_negative_agreement": 1.0,
+        "clear_positive_agreement": 0.9215686274509803,
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+        "clear_positive_total": 51,
+        "passed": true,
+        "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_13",
+        "status": "PASS"
+      }
+    }
+  },
+  "voided_cells": []
+}

adjudication_graded_manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+[
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+    "file_name": "mistral7b_v03_shard_00_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
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+  {
+    "committed_at": "2026-07-16T18:13:29.117681+00:00",
+    "file_name": "mistral7b_v03_shard_01_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
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+  {
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+    "file_name": "mistral7b_v03_shard_02_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
+    "sha256": "0098cc0246216512a14efab081c2d4dcbdcdee7126a9dd7eafd4cb1f6d940a50",
+    "shard_id": "mistral7b_v03_shard_02"
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+  {
+    "committed_at": "2026-07-16T18:13:29.343376+00:00",
+    "file_name": "mistral7b_v03_shard_03_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
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+    "file_name": "mistral7b_v03_shard_04_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
+    "sha256": "b8ec3af26065a3fd4f41cb929acbd375b5d437a3610018d1dd2603259bacbc2a",
+    "shard_id": "mistral7b_v03_shard_04"
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+    "file_name": "mistral7b_v03_shard_06_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
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+    "file_name": "mistral7b_v03_shard_13_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
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+    "shard_id": "mistral7b_v03_shard_13"
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+    "committed_at": "2026-07-16T18:13:30.618156+00:00",
+    "file_name": "qwen35_4b_shard_00_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
+    "sha256": "1a22055d8bd040ac8d717caf549a96a3d4b6002d33ed100aa99ebb5b3a8ebaaf",
+    "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_00"
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+    "file_name": "qwen35_4b_shard_01_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
+    "sha256": "7792b18f38297e35c73ad05ca7a1ca1010436d268d2965792fa5854b2d1b53c9",
+    "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_01"
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+  {
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+    "file_name": "qwen35_4b_shard_02_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
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+    "file_name": "qwen35_4b_shard_03_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
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+    "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_03"
+  },
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+    "file_name": "qwen35_4b_shard_04_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
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+    "sha256": "df20086816c1c80088e1688879ef568dc498242d6ac97790608340e342aea03a",
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+    "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_06"
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+    "file_name": "qwen35_4b_shard_07_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
+    "sha256": "b158a09c82ad39787b06918f07bc97911812ff0f3d6833465e8837604cb7f3da",
+    "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_07"
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+    "file_name": "qwen35_4b_shard_09_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
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+  },
+  {
+    "committed_at": "2026-07-16T18:13:31.869554+00:00",
+    "file_name": "qwen35_4b_shard_11_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
+    "sha256": "8ecf554437062e126fd4f25e721b7feb6d7723fa189ca6632df16428a5940f84",
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+    "file_name": "qwen35_4b_shard_12_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
+    "sha256": "fc2cebd6fb53751cf5e202c53c42d87db7ab6a75ed82a36d927cddce0665b444",
+    "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_12"
+  },
+  {
+    "committed_at": "2026-07-16T18:13:32.088118+00:00",
+    "file_name": "qwen35_4b_shard_13_graded_attempt1.jsonl",
+    "sha256": "5683f127c62998a7f1f07a359d3eedd1732772f84abb3571109a1b1302e23bac",
+    "shard_id": "qwen35_4b_shard_13"
+  }
+]

factorial_report.json

@@ -0,0 +1,1331 @@
+{
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+  "families": {
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+}

heldback_decoy_summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+{
+  "families": {
+    "mistral7b_v03": {
+      "decoy_baseline_runlog_path": "/home/profsynapse/code/ehr-worktrees/gate-factorial/experiments/gate-contribution-factorial/analysis/runlog/mistral7b_v03__decoy_baseline.jsonl",
+      "decoy_baseline_runlog_sha256": "85e998ba656888b4f28592877e26fd7a08bbeb237962fe9fa5315a3c160a84d1",
+      "family": "mistral7b_v03",
+      "fit_source_file_path": "/home/profsynapse/code/ehr-worktrees/rr3-corrected-placebo/experiments/rr3-corrected-placebo-replication/analysis/mistral/joined_rows_private.jsonl",
+      "lead_decision": "NOTEBOOK.md 2026-07-15 harness-accepted entry item 2: held-back pool drawn from a fresh UNSTEERED baseline generation over FIT/atlas-split known-correct rows, disjoint from the held-out pool by construction.",
+      "n_decoy_baseline_rows_generated": 255,
+      "n_decoy_source_rows": 255,
+      "n_excluded_missing_source_row": 0,
+      "n_excluded_overlap_with_scored_known_pool": 0,
+      "n_excluded_regrade_not_well_formed_correct_v2": 1,
+      "n_excluded_regrade_refused_v2": 0,
+      "n_qualifying_heldback_candidates": 254
+    },
+    "qwen35_4b": {
+      "decoy_baseline_runlog_path": "/home/profsynapse/code/ehr-worktrees/gate-factorial/experiments/gate-contribution-factorial/analysis/runlog/qwen35_4b__decoy_baseline.jsonl",
+      "decoy_baseline_runlog_sha256": "df303db0013cf0259833766a115413caa39c65f1f674806990dacd1e4f76161e",
+      "family": "qwen35_4b",
+      "fit_source_file_path": "/home/profsynapse/code/ehr-worktrees/qwen35-midband/experiments/qwen35-4b-midband-doubt-snap/analysis/fit_rows_for_anchor.jsonl",
+      "lead_decision": "NOTEBOOK.md 2026-07-15 harness-accepted entry item 2: held-back pool drawn from a fresh UNSTEERED baseline generation over FIT/atlas-split known-correct rows, disjoint from the held-out pool by construction.",
+      "n_decoy_baseline_rows_generated": 240,
+      "n_decoy_source_rows": 240,
+      "n_excluded_missing_source_row": 0,
+      "n_excluded_overlap_with_scored_known_pool": 0,
+      "n_excluded_regrade_not_well_formed_correct_v2": 1,
+      "n_excluded_regrade_refused_v2": 1,
+      "n_qualifying_heldback_candidates": 238
+    }
+  }
+}

mistral_direction_provenance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+{
+  "crosscheck": {
+    "fields_compared": [
+      "mu_d",
+      "sigma_d",
+      "mu_c",
+      "sigma_c",
+      "tau_frozen",
+      "auc_neg_z_d_on_fit"
+    ],
+    "method": "field-for-field comparison of RR's own originally-committed hs16_fit_build_manifest.json against RR2's own from-scratch RG0 reconstruction of the same fit (same FIT rows, same anchors, RR's own fit seed 20260713, run via direction_fit.py/fit_reuse.py, asserted byte-identical across two internal runs before this comparison ever sees it -- RR2's own fit_reuse.py rule)",
+    "mismatches": {},
+    "pass": true,
+    "rr2_own_fit_reuse_report_pass": true,
+    "rr2_reconstructed_manifest_path": "/home/profsynapse/code/ehr-worktrees/gate-factorial/experiments/gate-contribution-factorial/analysis/staged_inputs/mistral7b_v03/directions/hs16_build_manifest.json",
+    "rr2_reconstructed_sha256": "87667fae8b2fd459bffd6c5bd6df64e1c65ad3faf27eb235ba0d7d30f0675899",
+    "rr_committed_manifest_path": "/home/profsynapse/code/ehr-worktrees/gate-factorial/experiments/rr-cross-family-raw-refusal/analysis-committed/mistral/hs16_fit_build_manifest.json",
+    "rr_committed_sha256": "87667fae8b2fd459bffd6c5bd6df64e1c65ad3faf27eb235ba0d7d30f0675899",
+    "whole_file_byte_identical": true
+  },
+  "directions_dir_staged": "/home/profsynapse/code/ehr-worktrees/gate-factorial/experiments/gate-contribution-factorial/analysis/staged_inputs/mistral7b_v03/directions",
+  "dose_multiplier_sigma_c": 12,
+  "layer_hs_index": 16,
+  "reused_not_rerun_note": "This experiment does NOT re-run RR2's fit_reuse.py against RR2's own 250MB anchors_at_candidate_layers.json (no GPU/model load needed for that either, but it is a large private artifact this build did not stage). Instead it reuses RR2's own reconstructed hs16 direction JSONs and independently cross-checks them against RR's committed manifest, exactly mirroring the census's llama_setpoint_provenance.py precedent.",
+  "setpoint_dose_abs": 3.665316605069176,
+  "setpoint_dose_abs_matches_config_py_constant": true,
+  "sigma_c_hs16_mistral": 0.3054430504224313
+}

random_seed_ledger.json

@@ -0,0 +1,276 @@
+{
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+        "seed": 44000011
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+    ],
+    "worst_void_margin_cos": 0.03530491506943594
+  }
+}

sc1_verification_summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,494 @@
+{
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+  }
+}

sc1_verification_summary_v2.json

@@ -0,0 +1,595 @@
+{
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+  "defect_fixed_commit": "d4115f57",
+  "families": {
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+          "extra_on_disk_not_in_ledger": [],
+          "matches_ledger_exactly": true,
+          "missing_from_disk": []
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+        "true_gate_random": {
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+          "missing_from_disk": []
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+}

staging_manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,176 @@
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+}