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professorsynapse
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eh-rr3-corrected-placebo-replication

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English
Tags:
epistemic-humility
mechanistic-interpretability
data-exhaust
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eh-rr3-corrected-placebo-replication
File size: 3,676 Bytes
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{
  "baseline_confab_full_population": {
    "n": 1312,
    "refused_final": {
      "n": 1312,
      "n_uncovered": 0,
      "rate": 0.2858231707317073,
      "successes": 375,
      "wilson_ci_95": [
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        0.3108681365850118
      ]
    }
  },
  "gated_confab_full_population": {
    "lift_over_baseline": 0.40853658536585363,
    "n": 1312,
    "refused_final": {
      "n": 1312,
      "n_uncovered": 0,
      "rate": 0.694359756097561,
      "successes": 911,
      "wilson_ci_95": [
        0.6688947908931409,
        0.7186898961382899
      ]
    }
  },
  "gated_fired_confab": {
    "n": 1303,
    "refused_final": {
      "n": 1303,
      "n_uncovered": 0,
      "rate": 0.6991557943207981,
      "successes": 911,
      "wilson_ci_95": [
        0.6736981431746195,
        0.7234426090543083
      ]
    },
    "well_formed": {
      "n": 1303,
      "rate": 0.9869531849577897,
      "successes": 1286,
      "wilson_ci_95": [
        0.9792051706818825,
        0.9918384026871148
      ]
    }
  },
  "gated_known_full_population": {
    "n": 382,
    "refused_final": {
      "n": 382,
      "n_uncovered": 0,
      "rate": 0.005235602094240838,
      "successes": 2,
      "wilson_ci_95": [
        0.0014369671023544868,
        0.018886040292084585
      ]
    }
  },
  "gates": {
    "rg1_direction_specificity": {
      "effect_ratio": 1.8741258741258742,
      "floor": 3.0,
      "gated_lift": 0.40853658536585363,
      "max_over_k_random_lift_abs": 0.21798780487804875,
      "passed": false,
      "random_lifts_abs": [
        0.1326219512195122,
        0.0739329268292683,
        0.21798780487804875
      ]
    },
    "rg2_benefit": {
      "refused_pass": true,
      "well_formed_pass": true
    },
    "rg3_cost_pass": true
  },
  "random_direction_per_seed": [
    {
      "confab_refused_final": {
        "n": 1312,
        "n_uncovered": 0,
        "rate": 0.4184451219512195,
        "successes": 549,
        "wilson_ci_95": [
          0.3920282401246915,
          0.44533818531702185
        ]
      },
      "lift_over_baseline": 0.1326219512195122,
      "secondary_tolerance": {
        "calibration_certified_wide_baseline": 0.28,
        "envelope_points": 8.0,
        "family_id": "mistral7b_instruct_v03",
        "gates": false,
        "inside_envelope": false,
        "random_lift_points": 13.26219512195122
      },
      "seed": 30260714
    },
    {
      "confab_refused_final": {
        "n": 1312,
        "n_uncovered": 0,
        "rate": 0.21189024390243902,
        "successes": 278,
        "wilson_ci_95": [
          0.19063553465641758,
          0.23482716456757924
        ]
      },
      "lift_over_baseline": -0.0739329268292683,
      "secondary_tolerance": {
        "calibration_certified_wide_baseline": 0.28,
        "envelope_points": 8.0,
        "family_id": "mistral7b_instruct_v03",
        "gates": false,
        "inside_envelope": true,
        "random_lift_points": -7.39329268292683
      },
      "seed": 30260715
    },
    {
      "confab_refused_final": {
        "n": 1312,
        "n_uncovered": 0,
        "rate": 0.5038109756097561,
        "successes": 661,
        "wilson_ci_95": [
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          0.530814772868122
        ]
      },
      "lift_over_baseline": 0.21798780487804875,
      "secondary_tolerance": {
        "calibration_certified_wide_baseline": 0.28,
        "envelope_points": 8.0,
        "family_id": "mistral7b_instruct_v03",
        "gates": false,
        "inside_envelope": false,
        "random_lift_points": 21.798780487804876
      },
      "seed": 30260716
    }
  ],
  "verdict": "FALSIFIED"
}