{
 "note": "same 150 tasks, same runtime check and blind AI judge (claude-opus-5-5) for every model; claude-opus-5-5 is the preregistered run, the others are replications run after it",
 "models": {
  "claude-opus-5-5": {
   "versionprobe_verified_closed_book": {
    "answered": 984,
    "items": 984,
    "item_acc": 0.5843,
    "item_ci": [
     55.3,
     61.5
    ],
    "pair_acc": 0.2663,
    "pair_ci": [
     22.9,
     30.7
    ],
    "acc_on_valid": 0.7276,
    "acc_on_invalid": 0.4411
   },
   "repair": {
    "tasks_scored": 143,
    "tasks_excluded": 7,
    "a": {
     "valid": 0.5874,
     "faithful": 0.9301,
     "success": 0.5664,
     "success_ci": [
      48.5,
      64.5
     ]
    },
    "b": {
     "valid": 0.6993,
     "faithful": 0.8601,
     "success": 0.6014,
     "success_ci": [
      52.0,
      67.8
     ]
    },
    "c": {
     "valid": 0.8042,
     "faithful": 0.8811,
     "success": 0.6853,
     "success_ci": [
      60.5,
      75.6
     ]
    },
    "unchanged_answers": {
     "a": 0.0667,
     "b": 0.02,
     "c": 0.0
    },
    "mcnemar_c_vs_a": {
     "c_only": 29,
     "other_only": 12,
     "p": 0.0115
    },
    "mcnemar_c_vs_b": {
     "c_only": 21,
     "other_only": 9,
     "p": 0.0428
    },
    "strict_binding_success": {
     "a": 0.5594,
     "b": 0.5944,
     "c": 0.6853
    }
   }
  },
  "claude-fable-5-1": {
   "versionprobe_verified_closed_book": {
    "answered": 984,
    "items": 984,
    "item_acc": 0.565,
    "item_ci": [
     53.4,
     59.6
    ],
    "pair_acc": 0.2236,
    "pair_ci": [
     18.9,
     26.2
    ],
    "acc_on_valid": 0.7337,
    "acc_on_invalid": 0.3963
   },
   "repair": {
    "tasks_scored": 143,
    "tasks_excluded": 7,
    "a": {
     "valid": 0.5245,
     "faithful": 0.951,
     "success": 0.4965,
     "success_ci": [
      41.6,
      57.7
     ]
    },
    "b": {
     "valid": 0.6713,
     "faithful": 0.9161,
     "success": 0.6224,
     "success_ci": [
      54.1,
      69.8
     ]
    },
    "c": {
     "valid": 0.7902,
     "faithful": 0.8951,
     "success": 0.6993,
     "success_ci": [
      62.0,
      76.8
     ]
    },
    "unchanged_answers": {
     "a": 0.1867,
     "b": 0.0467,
     "c": 0.0
    },
    "mcnemar_c_vs_a": {
     "c_only": 37,
     "other_only": 8,
     "p": 0.0
    },
    "mcnemar_c_vs_b": {
     "c_only": 21,
     "other_only": 10,
     "p": 0.0708
    },
    "strict_binding_success": {
     "a": 0.4825,
     "b": 0.6154,
     "c": 0.6993
    }
   }
  },
  "claude-haiku-5-5": {
   "versionprobe_verified_closed_book": {
    "answered": 984,
    "items": 984,
    "item_acc": 0.4959,
    "item_ci": [
     46.5,
     52.7
    ],
    "pair_acc": 0.0915,
    "pair_ci": [
     6.9,
     12.0
    ],
    "acc_on_valid": 0.7378,
    "acc_on_invalid": 0.2541
   },
   "repair": {
    "tasks_scored": 143,
    "tasks_excluded": 7,
    "a": {
     "valid": 0.0699,
     "faithful": 0.986,
     "success": 0.0699,
     "success_ci": [
      3.8,
      12.4
     ]
    },
    "b": {
     "valid": 0.5455,
     "faithful": 0.8252,
     "success": 0.4615,
     "success_ci": [
      38.2,
      54.3
     ]
    },
    "c": {
     "valid": 0.7832,
     "faithful": 0.8881,
     "success": 0.6853,
     "success_ci": [
      60.5,
      75.6
     ]
    },
    "unchanged_answers": {
     "a": 0.8867,
     "b": 0.24,
     "c": 0.0
    },
    "mcnemar_c_vs_a": {
     "c_only": 90,
     "other_only": 2,
     "p": 0.0
    },
    "mcnemar_c_vs_b": {
     "c_only": 39,
     "other_only": 7,
     "p": 0.0
    },
    "strict_binding_success": {
     "a": 0.0699,
     "b": 0.4545,
     "c": 0.6853
    }
   }
  },
  "claude-sonnet-5-5": {
   "versionprobe_verified_closed_book": {
    "answered": 984,
    "items": 984,
    "item_acc": 0.5427,
    "item_ci": [
     51.1,
     57.4
    ],
    "pair_acc": 0.1829,
    "pair_ci": [
     15.1,
     22.0
    ],
    "acc_on_valid": 0.6728,
    "acc_on_invalid": 0.4126
   },
   "repair": {
    "tasks_scored": 143,
    "tasks_excluded": 7,
    "a": {
     "valid": 0.4406,
     "faithful": 0.9441,
     "success": 0.4196,
     "success_ci": [
      34.2,
      50.2
     ]
    },
    "b": {
     "valid": 0.6294,
     "faithful": 0.8392,
     "success": 0.5664,
     "success_ci": [
      48.5,
      64.5
     ]
    },
    "c": {
     "valid": 0.7902,
     "faithful": 0.8881,
     "success": 0.6923,
     "success_ci": [
      61.2,
      76.2
     ]
    },
    "unchanged_answers": {
     "a": 0.2933,
     "b": 0.1067,
     "c": 0.0
    },
    "mcnemar_c_vs_a": {
     "c_only": 46,
     "other_only": 7,
     "p": 0.0
    },
    "mcnemar_c_vs_b": {
     "c_only": 26,
     "other_only": 8,
     "p": 0.0029
    },
    "strict_binding_success": {
     "a": 0.4126,
     "b": 0.5594,
     "c": 0.6923
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "pooled_c_vs_a": {
  "c_only": 202,
  "other_only": 29,
  "p": 0.0,
  "models_with_gain": 4,
  "note": "pooling treats model-task pairs as independent; indicative only"
 },
 "pooled_c_vs_b": {
  "c_only": 107,
  "other_only": 34,
  "p": 0.0,
  "models_with_gain": 4,
  "note": "pooling treats model-task pairs as independent; indicative only"
 }
}