qid stringlengths 6 42 | question_title stringlengths 26 238 | background stringlengths 80 1.5k | resolution_criteria stringlengths 80 1k | answer_type stringclasses 1
value | ground_truth_answer stringclasses 2
values | question_start_date stringdate 2016-07-03 00:00:00 2026-03-24 00:00:00 | resolution_date stringdate 2025-08-01 00:00:00 2026-04-01 00:00:00 | cutoff_mode stringclasses 1
value | cutoff stringdate 2016-07-03 00:00:00 2026-03-24 00:00:00 | evidence_articles listlengths 0 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
517321 | Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? | During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolut... | During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".
The resolut... | yes_no | no | 2025-01-05 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2025-01-05 | [] |
663472 | Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? | On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit focused on potential peace terms in Ukraine.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion fro... | On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit focused on potential peace terms in Ukraine.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion fro... | yes_no | no | 2025-11-03 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2025-11-03 | [
{
"chunk_id": "2050610",
"date": "20250816",
"domain": "livemint.com",
"text": "Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, Friday, Aug. 15, 2025. Putin-Trump meet in Alaska: Putin says 'interested' in ending Ukraine war, but 'root cause must be eliminated' Putin-Trump meetwas among the main topics discussed duri... |
666860 | Trump out as President by March 31? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market'... | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market'... | yes_no | no | 2025-11-05 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2025-11-05 | [
{
"chunk_id": "11671357",
"date": "20251027",
"domain": "theage.com.au",
"text": "resigned, letting Trump again assume the presidency. Aboard Air Force One: US President Donald Trumpdeclined to definitively say he would not seek a third term, keeping alive speculation about how he might seek to exte... |
701290 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited is... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited is... | yes_no | no | 2025-11-24 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2025-11-24 | [
{
"chunk_id": "15097634",
"date": "20251121",
"domain": "bankingnews.gr",
"text": "\"Chinese invasion.\" www.bankingnews.gr Chinese authorities have formulated two strategies for gaining control over Taiwan, accordingscenario involves the peaceful imposition of control over the island, while the oth... |
791705 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, d... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, d... | yes_no | yes | 2025-12-02 | 2026-02-28 | strict | 2025-12-02 | [
{
"chunk_id": "8266325",
"date": "20251001",
"domain": "algemeiner.com",
"text": "Israel, in northern Israel, June 24, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Avi Ohayon The range of Iran's missilesdeemed necessary, a senior Revolutionary Guards commander told the semi-official Fars news agency on Wednesday,countries ... |
822267 | Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between December 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpos... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the sovereign territory of any NATO member state or on any official embassy or consulate of a NATO member state between December 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpos... | yes_no | no | 2025-12-04 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2025-12-04 | [
{
"chunk_id": "10023788",
"date": "20251015",
"domain": "bssnews.net",
"text": "significant energy infrastructure inside Russia,\" Whitaker said. BRUSSELS, Belgium, Oct 15, 2025 (BSS/AFP) - NATOseries of high-profile airspace violations in Poland and Estonia that fuelled fears of conflict spillinglo... |
897571 | Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Cook announces her resignation or otherwise ceases to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between December 8, 2025, and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only official announcements of Cook's r... | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Cook announces her resignation or otherwise ceases to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between December 8, 2025, and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only official announcements of Cook's r... | yes_no | no | 2025-12-08 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2025-12-08 | [
{
"chunk_id": "13860875",
"date": "20251112",
"domain": "theepochtimes.com",
"text": "removing her from the Board of Governors. Fed Governor Lisa Cook Unsure About December Interestmember of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, during an open meeting of the Board of GovernorsWashington on June 25... |
916732 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwi... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwi... | yes_no | yes | 2025-12-11 | 2026-03-04 | strict | 2025-12-11 | [
{
"chunk_id": "16582388",
"date": "20251203",
"domain": "iranpressnews.com",
"text": "significant changes or upheaval. In the Islamic Republic, Khamenei is not just a religious leader;central figure in the power structure for over three decades. As tensions rise with IsraelU.S., a critical question ... |
916733 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between this market's creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qu... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between this market's creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qu... | yes_no | no | 2025-12-11 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2025-12-11 | [
{
"chunk_id": "911712",
"date": "20250807",
"domain": "whio.com",
"text": "published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission. Russian President Vladimir Putin says he hopes totalk publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. The official said a Trump-Putin meeting wouldhumanitaria... |
958442 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Repu... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Repu... | yes_no | no | 2025-12-17 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2025-12-17 | [
{
"chunk_id": "4003612",
"date": "20250831",
"domain": "livemint.com",
"text": "nearing collapse, with nearly 900 executions this year as intimidation. It cautions that regime changeswift, painless transition to avoid further turmoil. Published31 Aug 2025, 05:45 AM IST Report warnsJackson Society an... |
1047366 | Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resig... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resig... | yes_no | no | 2025-12-28 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2025-12-28 | [
{
"chunk_id": "4512967",
"date": "20250904",
"domain": "realitytea.com",
"text": "attracted massive interest. The media and the general public are curious about the U.S. politician'sAmerican politician and a member of the Democratic Party. Omar boasts many firsts, including beingrepresent Minnesota ... |
1117242 | Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran
- Khamenei leaves Iran
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran:
This market will resolve to "No" if I... | This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran
- Khamenei leaves Iran
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran:
This market will resolve to "No" if I... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-05 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2026-01-05 | [
{
"chunk_id": "16582388",
"date": "20251203",
"domain": "iranpressnews.com",
"text": "significant changes or upheaval. In the Islamic Republic, Khamenei is not just a religious leader;central figure in the power structure for over three decades. As tensions rise with IsraelU.S., a critical question ... |
1143768 | X banned in U.K. by March 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if use of X/Twitter is banned within the United Kingdom by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar U.K. citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or postin... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if use of X/Twitter is banned within the United Kingdom by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar U.K. citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or postin... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-09 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2026-01-09 | [
{
"chunk_id": "156521",
"date": "20250801",
"domain": "upi.com",
"text": "Elon Musk-owned social media platform X said Friday that Britain's newly-enacted Online Safety Act \"seriously\"expression,\" the Global Government affairs wing of the Bastrop, Texas-headquartered X said Friday. Britain's Onli... |
1144504 | Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will... | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-09 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2026-01-09 | [
{
"chunk_id": "20710094",
"date": "20260107",
"domain": "politicalwire.com",
"text": "since late December.\" Favorite \"President Donald Trump has revived his long-running ambition to bring Greenland under U.S. control, but traders putting money on the outcome are skeptical it will happen this year,... |
1180303 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or othe... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or othe... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-14 | 2026-03-04 | strict | 2026-01-14 | [
{
"chunk_id": "20359305",
"date": "20260105",
"domain": "albawaba.com",
"text": "Times newspaper. ALBAWABA - Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is planning to escape from Tehranintensify and security forces fail to suppress the protesters, The Times reported, citing an intelligencevery close circle ... |
1198451 | Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-16 | 2026-02-28 | strict | 2026-01-16 | [
{
"chunk_id": "8266325",
"date": "20251001",
"domain": "algemeiner.com",
"text": "Israel, in northern Israel, June 24, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Avi Ohayon The range of Iran's missilesdeemed necessary, a senior Revolutionary Guards commander told the semi-official Fars news agency on Wednesday,countries ... |
1198784 | Iran strike on US military by February 28? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian missile, drone, or other stri... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian missile, drone, or other stri... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-16 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2026-01-16 | [
{
"chunk_id": "21624858",
"date": "20260114",
"domain": "us.cnn.com",
"text": "bombs, hitting two Iranian nuclear installations without any US casualties or loss of aircraft, includingcommand centers and other targets related to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), its affiliatedtelecomm... |
1228086 | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is de... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is de... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-20 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2026-01-20 | [
{
"chunk_id": "1680410",
"date": "20250813",
"domain": "clickondetroit.com",
"text": "Britain, France, and Germany threatened to reimpose sanctions on Iran as an end-of-the-month deadline nearsanctions, if Tehran doesn't comply with its requirements. Recommended Videos French Foreign Minister Jean-N... |
1243248 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the re... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the re... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-22 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2026-01-22 | [
{
"chunk_id": "724149",
"date": "20250806",
"domain": "heraldglobe.com",
"text": "capital this week Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky has rejected any limited ceasefire with Russia, insisting thatUkraine conflict in 2022, Moscow and Kiev have agreed to several partial ceasefires. However, bothMay, Russia'... |
1273199 | Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? | Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if António José Seguro receives the highest number of valid votes in the second round of this election in each electoral district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result ... | Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if António José Seguro receives the highest number of valid votes in the second round of this election in each electoral district. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result ... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-16 | strict | 2026-01-26 | [
{
"chunk_id": "22120123",
"date": "20260118",
"domain": "english.news.cn",
"text": "Portugal's presidential election will proceed to a second round, with Antonio Jose Seguro leading theround with 30.69 percent of the votes, according to data released by the General Secretariat of the Ministry of Int... |
1281562 | Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the January 27, 2026 incident in which Rep. Ilhan Omar was sprayed with an unknown liquid at a Minneapolis town hall was staged, pre-arranged, orchestrated, fake, or otherwise not a genuine adversarial attack — including if broad consensus fr... | This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the January 27, 2026 incident in which Rep. Ilhan Omar was sprayed with an unknown liquid at a Minneapolis town hall was staged, pre-arranged, orchestrated, fake, or otherwise not a genuine adversarial attack — including if broad consensus fr... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-28 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2026-01-28 | [
{
"chunk_id": "23136468",
"date": "20260126",
"domain": "wnd.com",
"text": "articles here. U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn. (Official portrait) President Donald Trump on Monday confirmedleast partially responsible for the violent organized protests going on in the streets. Additionally, theWashington E... |
1285886 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agre... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agre... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-28 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2026-01-28 | [
{
"chunk_id": "7705801",
"date": "20250927",
"domain": "en.tempo.co",
"text": "international sanctions. The deadline ended on September 28, 2025. A UN Security Council resolution sponsored15-member body supporting it. Nine council members, including Britain, France, Denmark, Slovenia, Sierra Leone, ... |
1308327 | Government shutdown on Saturday? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces a new federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A continuation, without any reopening, of the partial government shutdown which... | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces a new federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A continuation, without any reopening, of the partial government shutdown which... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-31 | 2026-02-15 | strict | 2026-01-31 | [
{
"chunk_id": "7909237",
"date": "20250929",
"domain": "forbes.com",
"text": "partial government shutdown that could begin as soon as Wednesday morning. However, prediction markets currentlygovernment shutdown occurs, then defense and healthcare companies could see disproportionate impact. That's be... |
1326324 | Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any release will qualify, including re-releases, partial releases, unsubstantive materials, or documents... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any release will qualify, including re-releases, partial releases, unsubstantive materials, or documents... | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-03 | 2026-02-10 | strict | 2026-02-03 | [
{
"chunk_id": "18489838",
"date": "20251217",
"domain": "wptv.com",
"text": "Friday deadline to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein and his alleged accomplices, as requiredPresident Donald Trump. The Epstein Files Transparency Act, signed Nov. 19, set a 30-day countdownmake the records public. ... |
1370906 | Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US government shutdown begins by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET and the government remains shut down for the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying government shutdown will be defined as having... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US government shutdown begins by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET and the government remains shut down for the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying government shutdown will be defined as having... | yes_no | no | 2026-02-12 | 2026-02-15 | strict | 2026-02-12 | [
{
"chunk_id": "9497367",
"date": "20251010",
"domain": "foxbusiness.com",
"text": "prediction markets are betting the federal government shutdown will stretch beyond three weeks, with lawmakersagain until next Tuesday. Traders on Kalshi give a 56% chance that the government shutdown will last just o... |
1385748 | France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defin... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defin... | yes_no | no | 2026-02-16 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2026-02-16 | [
{
"chunk_id": "1680410",
"date": "20250813",
"domain": "clickondetroit.com",
"text": "Britain, France, and Germany threatened to reimpose sanctions on Iran as an end-of-the-month deadline nearsanctions, if Tehran doesn't comply with its requirements. Recommended Videos French Foreign Minister Jean-N... |
1394368 | Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November... | yes_no | no | 2026-02-18 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2026-02-18 | [
{
"chunk_id": "21579674",
"date": "20260114",
"domain": "el-balad.com",
"text": "carry their positions forward. Recent tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated significantly.situation has evolved rapidly, with both nations exchanging stern warnings and accusations. US Increases Att... |
1402792 | US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement i... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement i... | yes_no | no | 2026-02-20 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2026-02-20 | [
{
"chunk_id": "24133627",
"date": "20260203",
"domain": "benzinga.com",
"text": "prediction markets Monday amid renewed optimism from Tehran. Will Iran And The US Finally Agree?countries reaching an agreement this year climbed to 57% on Polymarket before easing to 53%.official agreement over Iranian... |
1555395 | Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first officia... | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution of this market will be based on the first officia... | yes_no | no | 2026-03-10 | 2026-04-01 | strict | 2026-03-10 | [
{
"chunk_id": "28617981",
"date": "20260309",
"domain": "breitbart.com",
"text": "appointment of Iran Supreme Leader, as the country's national television news service confirmed Monday, howeverplace unknown. AP reports television news anchors referred to the mid-level Shiite cleric as \"janbaz,\"Ira... |
ka_KXACAHSAFSA-MAR26 | Will legislation that channels government funds directly into HSAs and/or FSAs become law before Mar 1, 2026? | If legislation that channels government funds directly into HSAs and/or FSAs has become law before Mar 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through... | If legislation that channels government funds directly into HSAs and/or FSAs has become law before Mar 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-06 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2026-01-06 | [
{
"chunk_id": "870039",
"date": "20250807",
"domain": "mondaq.com",
"text": "Trump's self-imposed deadline of July 4, 2025, the House and Senate initially proposed varying provisionsbenefits experts largely applauded. The proposed bill included drastically increased contribution levels for some empl... |
ka_KXANTHROPICRISK-26APR01 | Will the Department of Defense announce that Anthropic is a supply chain risk before Apr 1, 2026? | If the Department of Defense announces that Anthropic is a supply chain risk before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. | If the Department of Defense announces that Anthropic is a supply chain risk before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-19 | 2026-02-27 | strict | 2026-02-19 | [
{
"chunk_id": "26095072",
"date": "20260218",
"domain": "alltoc.com",
"text": "military use and safety obligations U.S. defense officials have signaled serious concerns about Anthropic's approachconsidering designating the company as a supply‑chain risk and ending a substantial procurement relations... |
ka_KXARREST-27JAN-HAN | Will Han Duck-soo be arrested before Jan 2027? | If Han Duck-soo is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Han Duck-soo is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2025-08-19 | 2026-01-22 | strict | 2025-08-19 | [
{
"chunk_id": "2119937",
"date": "20250816",
"domain": "english.hani.co.kr",
"text": "escaped the clutches of the National Security Law. Han Young-pyo, presiding judge in Criminal Divisionincipient democratization movement in the Busan area. \"At the time, the police arrested the suspectsquestioned ... |
ka_KXBENINUPR-26JAN11-55 | Will the Progressive Union win at least 55 seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election? | If the Progressive Union has won at least 55 seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expire... | If the Progressive Union has won at least 55 seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expire... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-02 | 2026-01-28 | strict | 2026-01-02 | [
{
"chunk_id": "16563372",
"date": "20251203",
"domain": "channelafrica.co.za",
"text": "shaping Benin's political landscape in 2026. –ChannelAfrica– Benin's main opposition party, Les Démocrates (LD), willegislative elections after the Electoral Commission approved its list of candidates. The Commis... |
ka_KXCABOUT-29JAN-HLUT | Will Howard Lutnick be the first person to leave the Trump Cabinet? | If Howard Lutnick is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after Feb 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve ... | If Howard Lutnick is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after Feb 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve ... | yes_no | no | 2026-02-04 | 2026-03-07 | strict | 2026-02-04 | [
{
"chunk_id": "8433998",
"date": "20251002",
"domain": "investinglive.com",
"text": "his replacement. I wonder if US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just put his political careerJustice have been saying lately, and even against Trump. Notably, Lutnick was Jeffrey Epstein's neighbourbehavior and ju... |
ka_KXCALIFORNIALEAVE-27-DSAC | Will David Sacks announce they're leaving California? | If David Sacks announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences. | If David Sacks announces they're moving away from California before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The announcement must indicate an intent to change primary residence, not temporary travel or maintaining multiple residences. | yes_no | yes | 2025-12-29 | 2026-01-16 | strict | 2025-12-29 | [
{
"chunk_id": "2310186",
"date": "20250818",
"domain": "radaronline.com",
"text": "migraine. Article continues below advertisement Wait, what exactly is the \"exit tax\" everyone's buzzing about?category called \"wealth‑tax resident.\" That fractional formula phases down each year, essentially an \"... |
ka_KXCOLLINSSENATERUN-26NOV03 | Will Susan Collins run for reelection to the U.S. Senate in 2026? | If Susan Collins has announced that they will run for Maine's U.S. Senate seat in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Mere... | If Susan Collins has announced that they will run for Maine's U.S. Senate seat in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Mere... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-14 | 2026-02-10 | strict | 2026-01-14 | [
{
"chunk_id": "9907259",
"date": "20251014",
"domain": "theepochtimes.com",
"text": "Challenge Susan Collins for Senate in 2026 The governor will challenge the incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine)seat Trump lost in 2024. Maine Gov. Janet Mills to Challenge Susan Collins for Senate in 2026 / Gov. J... |
ka_KXCOMPTROLLERNOMILD-26-MCRO | Who will win the 2026 Illinois Comptroller Democratic primary election? | If Margaret Croke wins the 2026 Illinois Comptroller Democratic primary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. | If Margaret Croke wins the 2026 Illinois Comptroller Democratic primary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-12 | 2026-03-21 | strict | 2026-02-12 | [
{
"chunk_id": "25018742",
"date": "20260209",
"domain": "wglt.org",
"text": "his longtime Statehouse allies, Rep. Margaret Croke, to be Illinois' next comptroller. Croke has representedalways been committed to responsible fiscal management.\" \"Whether it's advocating for job creation, reproductive ... |
ka_KXCONGESTIONSUIT-28 | Will the MTA win its congestion pricing lawsuit against Trump? | If the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York rules that the Trump Administration's rescinding of the Value Pricing Pilot Program for New York's congestion pricing scheme was unlawful in Metropolitan Transportation Authority v. Sean Duffy before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. | If the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York rules that the Trump Administration's rescinding of the Value Pricing Pilot Program for New York's congestion pricing scheme was unlawful in Metropolitan Transportation Authority v. Sean Duffy before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2025-03-01 | 2026-03-03 | strict | 2025-03-01 | [] |
ka_KXCONTEMPT-26 | Will any Trump political appointee be found in contempt of court this year? | If any federal court has held a political appointee of the Executive Branch confirmed by the Senate (or the President or Vice President) in contempt of court for any reason or in any proceeding relating to their official duties after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the person held ... | If any federal court has held a political appointee of the Executive Branch confirmed by the Senate (or the President or Vice President) in contempt of court for any reason or in any proceeding relating to their official duties after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the person held ... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-06 | 2026-03-28 | strict | 2026-01-06 | [
{
"chunk_id": "1262329",
"date": "20250810",
"domain": "aol.com",
"text": "Trump-appointed judges across the country continue to deliver the administration wins, the federal judiciary's abilityprosecutorial power. Sanctions situations also typically escalate slowly, and appeal opportunities for the ... |
ka_KXCOSTARICALAMAJORITY-26FEB01 | Will any party win a majority of seats in the 2026 Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election? | If any party has won at least 29 seats in the 2026 Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expire... | If any party has won at least 29 seats in the 2026 Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expire... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-22 | 2026-03-04 | strict | 2026-01-22 | [
{
"chunk_id": "11154271",
"date": "20251023",
"domain": "ticotimes.net",
"text": "widespread indecision among Costa Ricans as the February 2026 national elections approach. The survey, releasedthe coming months. Laura Fernández, the candidate from the ruling Pueblo Soberano Party (PPSO), holdsoutrig... |
ka_KXCOSTARICAPRES1ROUND-26FEB01 | Will anyone win outright in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rica Presidential election? | If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (40%) to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Costa Rica Presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if ... | If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (40%) to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Costa Rica Presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if ... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-14 | 2026-03-04 | strict | 2026-01-14 | [
{
"chunk_id": "18050290",
"date": "20251215",
"domain": "as-coa.org",
"text": "citizens'... Over 3.7 million Costa Ricans are expected to elect a president, two vice presidents, and all 57 seats in the legislature on February 1. If no presidential candidate wins at least 40% of the vote, the two lea... |
ka_KXCRASEATS-26FEB08-B60 | Will Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) win below 60 seats in the the 2026 Japanese general election? | If Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) has won below 60 seats in the 2026 Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has exp... | If Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) has won below 60 seats in the 2026 Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has exp... | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-13 | strict | 2026-02-07 | [
{
"chunk_id": "22595962",
"date": "20260122",
"domain": "japantimes.co.jp",
"text": "seen. The Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), a new opposition party formed between the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, was officially launched Thursday with 227 candidates running in the Feb. 8 ge... |
ka_KXDATASET13-26MAR01 | Will the Department of Justice (DOJ) release Data Set 13 (pursuant to the Epstein Files Transparency Act) before Mar 1, 2026? | If the Department of Justice (DOJ) has released Data Set 13 (pursuant to the Epstein Files Transparency Act) to the public before Mar 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Released to the public means the document is made freely accessible to the general public without restriction, can be viewed, downloaded, or ac... | If the Department of Justice (DOJ) has released Data Set 13 (pursuant to the Epstein Files Transparency Act) to the public before Mar 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Released to the public means the document is made freely accessible to the general public without restriction, can be viewed, downloaded, or ac... | yes_no | no | 2026-02-02 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2026-02-02 | [
{
"chunk_id": "20932388",
"date": "20260109",
"domain": "mediaite.com",
"text": "Epstein Files, which the Justice Department was legally bound to release in full on December 19th. President Donald Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which was co-sponsored byreleasing only 12,285 documen... |
ka_KXDENMARKPARLI-26-SD | Who will win the next Danish general election? | If the winner of the next Danish general election in 2026 is Social Democrats, then the market resolves to Yes. | If the winner of the next Danish general election in 2026 is Social Democrats, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2025-07-14 | 2026-03-26 | strict | 2025-07-14 | [] |
ka_KXDEPORTCOUNT-25-500 | How many deportations in Trump's first year? | If there are at least 500,000 removals or expulsions from the United States by ICE in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. | If there are at least 500,000 removals or expulsions from the United States by ICE in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | no | 2024-12-05 | 2026-01-28 | strict | 2024-12-05 | [] |
ka_KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26MAR01 | Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-03-01T15:00:00.000Z? | If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before March 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the d... | If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before March 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the d... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-03 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2026-01-03 | [
{
"chunk_id": "15960637",
"date": "20251128",
"domain": "cubaheadlines.com",
"text": "Díaz-Canel expressed that the deceased leader continues to speak to the nation through his \"legacy\"how much the Commander-in-Chief of the #CubanRevolution continues to speak to us from the immortalitycommunist le... |
ka_KXDJTVOSTARIFFS | Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump | If the Supreme Court, in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, rules that Trump's tariffs are legal before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision that reverses, vacates, or other... | If the Supreme Court, in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, rules that Trump's tariffs are legal before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision that reverses, vacates, or other... | yes_no | no | 2025-09-02 | 2026-02-20 | strict | 2025-09-02 | [
{
"chunk_id": "3958341",
"date": "20250830",
"domain": "victorygirlsblog.com",
"text": "Friday-evening-before-a-holiday-weekend ruling, the federal Court of Appeals ruled that the tariffs that President Trump putariffs during his April 2 \"Liberation Day\" event. Initially, the Court of Internationa... |
ka_KXENDORSEFISHBACK-26AUG18-TCAR | Will Tucker Carlson endorse James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026? | If Tucker Carlson publicly endorses James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the nominee's election. The statement must be public (not private communications) and s... | If Tucker Carlson publicly endorses James Fishback in Florida's gubernatorial election (primary or general) before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the nominee's election. The statement must be public (not private communications) and s... | yes_no | yes | 2025-12-30 | 2026-01-15 | strict | 2025-12-30 | [
{
"chunk_id": "15690883",
"date": "20251126",
"domain": "el-balad.com",
"text": "election. Investor and CEO James Fishback has declared his candidacy for the governorship of Florida.upcoming elections. James Fishback's Campaign Goals In his announcement, Fishback emphasized a commitment to making li... |
ka_KXEOWEEK-26MAR21-1 | Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Mar 15, 2026 and Mar 21, 2026? | If the President signs above 1 executive orders during Mar 15, 2026 to Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An "Executive Order" is a numbered presidential directive that: is formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, is signed by the President, is published in the Federal Register, and has the ... | If the President signs above 1 executive orders during Mar 15, 2026 to Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An "Executive Order" is a numbered presidential directive that: is formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, is signed by the President, is published in the Federal Register, and has the ... | yes_no | yes | 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-26 | strict | 2026-03-17 | [
{
"chunk_id": "715546",
"date": "20250806",
"domain": "veropatriot.iheart.com",
"text": "Bottom Line: In the second Trump administration I'm tracking all of President Trump's executive orders.signed 182 executive orders compared to 220 signed during the entirety of his first administrationPresident ... |
ka_KXEPSTEIN-26MAR | Will Trump release any documents about Epstein's associates before Apr 1, 2026? | If the Trump Administration has released, after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2026, previously unreleased (but created prior to the start of his Administration) documents related to or discussing Jeffrey Epstein’s connections, or associates, then the market resolves to Yes. | If the Trump Administration has released, after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2026, previously unreleased (but created prior to the start of his Administration) documents related to or discussing Jeffrey Epstein’s connections, or associates, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2026-03-01 | 2026-03-10 | strict | 2026-03-01 | [
{
"chunk_id": "18489838",
"date": "20251217",
"domain": "wptv.com",
"text": "Friday deadline to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein and his alleged accomplices, as requiredPresident Donald Trump. The Epstein Files Transparency Act, signed Nov. 19, set a 30-day countdownmake the records public. ... |
ka_KXEPSTEINLIST-27-BOBA | Who will be named in Epstein documents released in 2026? | If Barack Obama is named in any context in any documents held by the federal government directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein released before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Barack Obama is considered to appear in the documents when either the exact term, phrase, or name specified appears in the content of ... | If Barack Obama is named in any context in any documents held by the federal government directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein released before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Barack Obama is considered to appear in the documents when either the exact term, phrase, or name specified appears in the content of ... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-31 | strict | 2026-01-05 | [
{
"chunk_id": "19980577",
"date": "20251231",
"domain": "nbcnewyork.com",
"text": "Epstein's island show the compound's exterior structures, as well as interiors. Jeffrey Epstein December 2,which Summers appeared to be getting advice from Epstein about pursuing a romantic relationship withJustice De... |
ka_KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-DLEM | Will Don Lemon be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? | If Don Lemon has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the... | If Don Lemon has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-30 | strict | 2026-01-19 | [] |
ka_KXFEDGOVNOM-27-KWAR | Will Trump next nominate Kevin Warsh as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System? | If Kevin Warsh is nominated as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. then the market resolves to Yes.
The nomination must be sent by the President and received by the United States Senate. | If Kevin Warsh is nominated as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. then the market resolves to Yes.
The nomination must be sent by the President and received by the United States Senate. | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-05 | 2026-03-05 | strict | 2026-01-05 | [
{
"chunk_id": "17857751",
"date": "20251212",
"domain": "cnbc.com",
"text": "other people that are great,\" Trump added. President Donald Trump said Friday that Kevin Warshthe next Federal Reserve chair, according to the Wall Street Journal. Previously considered on Trump's short listformer Fed gove... |
ka_KXFLHD87-26-JMAP | Who will win the 2026 Special General Election for Florida House District 87? | If Jon Maples wins the 2026 Special General Election for Florida House District 87 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. | If Jon Maples wins the 2026 Special General Election for Florida House District 87 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. | yes_no | no | 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-25 | strict | 2026-03-24 | [
{
"chunk_id": "21653040",
"date": "20260114",
"domain": "veropatriot.iheart.com",
"text": "candidates who will face each other in a Special election to fill a vacant state House seat in Palm Beach County. Jon Maplespercent of the vote, defeating Gretchen Miller Feng in yesterday's special GOP primar... |
ka_KXFLSD14-26-BNAT | Who will win the Florida State Senate District 14 Special General Election? | If Brian Nathan wins the Florida State Senate District 14 Special General Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. | If Brian Nathan wins the Florida State Senate District 14 Special General Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. | yes_no | yes | 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-30 | strict | 2026-03-19 | [
{
"chunk_id": "29889257",
"date": "20260318",
"domain": "cltampa.com",
"text": "8,234 people had voted. Florida Senate candidate Brian Nathan smiling in a professional indoor setting.vacant legislative seats, however, DeSantis at times has been lackadaisical in scheduling special legislative electio... |
ka_KXGA14SPECIAL1ROUND-26MAR10 | Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia 14th congressional district special election in the first round? | If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Georgia 14th congressional district special election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market... | If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Georgia 14th congressional district special election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market... | yes_no | no | 2026-02-11 | 2026-03-13 | strict | 2026-02-11 | [
{
"chunk_id": "20995673",
"date": "20260109",
"domain": "ajc.com",
"text": "special-election format adds an element of uncertainty. \"Voters want to know whether there's a planhearing locally is that voters are less interested in branding and more interested in representation.\" Map of Georgia's 14t... |
ka_KXGOVTXNOMD-26-GHIN | Will Gina Hinojosa be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Texas? | If Gina Hinojosa wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Texas Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Gina Hinojosa wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Texas Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2025-12-08 | 2026-03-04 | strict | 2025-12-08 | [
{
"chunk_id": "10319631",
"date": "20251017",
"domain": "krgv.com",
"text": "Democratic race to challenge Gov. Greg Abbott Texas State Representative Gina Hinojosa announced on Wednesday she is running for governor. Hinojosa held her first campaign event at the Alonso Building in Brownsville, the ci... |
ka_KXINSURRECTION-29-26MAR | Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? | If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Mar 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. | If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Mar 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | no | 2026-01-15 | 2026-03-01 | strict | 2026-01-15 | [
{
"chunk_id": "11967055",
"date": "20251029",
"domain": "alternet.org",
"text": "President Donald Trump, who has recently and repeatedly floated invoking the Insurrection Act, implied thathe could send more than just the National Guard into American cities. \"Sure, I would,certain act, I'm allowed t... |
ka_KXJAPANCRA172SEATS-26FEB08 | Will Centrist Reform Alliance win above 172 seats in the 2026 Japanese House of Representatives election? | If the Centrist Reform Alliance has won more than 172 seats in the 2026 Japanese House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for lega... | If the Centrist Reform Alliance has won more than 172 seats in the 2026 Japanese House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for lega... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-20 | 2026-02-13 | strict | 2026-01-20 | [
{
"chunk_id": "21856886",
"date": "20260116",
"domain": "japantimes.co.jp",
"text": "last election. The sudden decision by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and Komeitois a centrist bent has the ruling Liberal Democratic Party concerned, as Japan braces forelection next month. LDP S... |
ka_KXJAPANHOUSE-28-LDP | Who will win the next Japanese general election? | If the winner of the next Japanese general election is the LDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in... | If the winner of the next Japanese general election is the LDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in... | yes_no | yes | 2025-07-14 | 2026-02-26 | strict | 2025-07-14 | [] |
ka_KXJAPANLOWERHOUSEMAJORITY-26FEB08-233 | Will any party win at least 233 seats in the 2026 Japan House of Representatives election? | If any party has won at least 233 seats in the 2026 Japan House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expire... | If any party has won at least 233 seats in the 2026 Japan House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes.
A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expire... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-19 | 2026-02-13 | strict | 2026-01-19 | [
{
"chunk_id": "4953717",
"date": "20250907",
"domain": "indianexpress.com",
"text": "leadership race in September 2024, candidates needed to secure 20 nominations from the party's lawmakersdebates and campaigns across Japan culminating in a vote by lawmakers and rank-and-file party members.number di... |
ka_KXJUDICIALREFORMIT-26 | Will the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum on judicial reform in Italy pass? | If the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum on judicial reform in Italy passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
A referendum "passes" when it meets ALL of the following conditions: receives the minimum percentage of "Yes" or "For" votes required by the applicable constitution, law, or electoral rules (whether simpl... | If the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum on judicial reform in Italy passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
A referendum "passes" when it meets ALL of the following conditions: receives the minimum percentage of "Yes" or "For" votes required by the applicable constitution, law, or electoral rules (whether simpl... | yes_no | no | 2026-02-18 | 2026-03-26 | strict | 2026-02-18 | [
{
"chunk_id": "12083841",
"date": "20251030",
"domain": "ansa.it",
"text": "government's reform of the judiciary separating career paths so judges and prosecutors can no longeroles is a historic milestone, Premier Giorgia Meloni said Thursday saying the Italian people wouldapprove it in a referendum... |
ka_KXKHAMENEIOUT-AKHA-26FEB01 | Will Ali Khamenei leave office before 2026-02-01T15:00:00.000Z? | If Ali Khamenei leaves office before February 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement that the Ali Khamenei will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Ali Khamenei leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange... | If Ali Khamenei leaves office before February 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement that the Ali Khamenei will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Ali Khamenei leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange... | yes_no | no | 2026-01-08 | 2026-02-01 | strict | 2026-01-08 | [
{
"chunk_id": "20359305",
"date": "20260105",
"domain": "albawaba.com",
"text": "Times newspaper. ALBAWABA - Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is planning to escape from Tehranintensify and security forces fail to suppress the protesters, The Times reported, citing an intelligencevery close circle ... |
ka_KXMOVNJ11SPECIALD-26FEB05-WIN-P1 | Will the margin of victory for the election winner in NJ-11 special election Democratic primary be between 0% and 3%? | If the margin of victory for the election winner in the NJ-11 special election Democratic primary falls between 0% and 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points... | If the margin of victory for the election winner in the NJ-11 special election Democratic primary falls between 0% and 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-25 | 2026-02-25 | strict | 2026-01-25 | [
{
"chunk_id": "11857609",
"date": "20251029",
"domain": "savejersey.com",
"text": "Jersey governor is down to its final week, Save Jerseyans, and its objectively very close?average (see below) show an outright or statistical tie (inside the margin of error). Only two show the contest to succeed Phil... |
ka_KXMULLINCOUNT-27-T53 | How many Senators vote to confirm Markwayne Mullin as Secretary of Homeland Security? | If the number of Senators voting Yea for the nomination of Markwayne Mullin to Secretary of Homeland Security after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 is above 53, then the market resolves to Yes.
If no vote has occurred before Jan 1, 2027, then any market not including “zero” within its count (e.g. “Between 50 and 64”) ... | If the number of Senators voting Yea for the nomination of Markwayne Mullin to Secretary of Homeland Security after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 is above 53, then the market resolves to Yes.
If no vote has occurred before Jan 1, 2027, then any market not including “zero” within its count (e.g. “Between 50 and 64”) ... | yes_no | yes | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-24 | strict | 2026-03-05 | [] |
ka_KXNCPRIMARY-05D26-KCRE | Will Kyah Creekmore be the Democratic nominee for NC-05? | If Kyah Creekmore wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NC-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Kyah Creekmore wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NC-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | no | 2026-02-11 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2026-02-11 | [
{
"chunk_id": "1600528",
"date": "20250813",
"domain": "zerohedge.com",
"text": "election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has identified 35 Republican-held congressional districts \"in play,\"defeated Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout by 1.7 percentage points—6,300 votes—... |
ka_KXNCPRIMARY-06D26-CJEF | Will Cyril Jefferson be the Democratic nominee for NC-06? | If Cyril Jefferson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NC-06 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Cyril Jefferson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NC-06 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-11 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2026-02-11 | [
{
"chunk_id": "738406",
"date": "20250806",
"domain": "publicradioeast.org",
"text": "Cyril Jefferson officially launched his campaign for the 6th District Congressional seat on Tuesday. Jefferson saidFacebook post that North Carolinians are ready for real solutions. \"I'm stepping forward because I... |
ka_KXNCPRIMARY-09D26-ROJE | Will Richard Ojeda be the Democratic nominee for NC-09? | If Richard Ojeda wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NC-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Richard Ojeda wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NC-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-11 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2026-02-11 | [
{
"chunk_id": "24942030",
"date": "20260209",
"domain": "abc11.com",
"text": "re-election. RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- North Carolina is set to play a pivotal role nationallyearly voting begins this Thursday, February 12th. It all comes as North Carolina is provingstring of nearly 50-50 statewide races.... |
ka_KXNEWPOPE-35-PPAR | Who will the next Pope be? | If Pietro Parolin becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Pietro Parolin becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | no | 2025-03-26 | 2026-03-31 | strict | 2025-03-26 | [] |
ka_KXNGUARDCITY-26-NYC | What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026? | If the National Guard is deployed to New York City after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Deployment means National Guard members arrive in New York City on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routin... | If the National Guard is deployed to New York City after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Deployment means National Guard members arrive in New York City on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routin... | yes_no | yes | 2025-12-22 | 2026-02-24 | strict | 2025-12-22 | [
{
"chunk_id": "3819982",
"date": "20250829",
"domain": "newsday.com",
"text": "quell violence and potential civil disturbances. But Gov. Kathy Hochul and NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tischrole, generally while holding civilian jobs or attending school. National Guard units are typically activatedThat d... |
ka_KXOBAMAAPPEAR-26APR01 | Will Barack Obama be seen in public before Apr 1, 2026? | If Barack Obama has been seen in public starting 10:00 AM Mar 1, 2026 and before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The person must be physically present (not virtual/holographic) and alive, appearing conscious and aware (not unconscious, comatose, or incapacitated). Qualifying public settings include: publ... | If Barack Obama has been seen in public starting 10:00 AM Mar 1, 2026 and before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The person must be physically present (not virtual/holographic) and alive, appearing conscious and aware (not unconscious, comatose, or incapacitated). Qualifying public settings include: publ... | yes_no | yes | 2026-03-01 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2026-03-01 | [
{
"chunk_id": "10217111",
"date": "20251016",
"domain": "nbcphiladelphia.com",
"text": "distraction.\" Barack Obama April 5, 2025 7:02 pm Former President Barack Obama shared rare insightNews reported. Trump administration January 20, 2025 6:12 pm President Donald Trump on Monday vowedinauguration o... |
ka_KXSENATENCD-26-RC | Wil Roy Cooper be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in North Carolina? | If Roy Cooper wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II North Carolina Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Roy Cooper wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II North Carolina Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2024-12-04 | 2026-03-04 | strict | 2024-12-04 | [] |
ka_KXSENATETXR-26-WHUN | Will Wesley Hunt be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Texas? | If Wesley Hunt wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Texas Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Wesley Hunt wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Texas Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | no | 2025-09-10 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2025-09-10 | [
{
"chunk_id": "4738587",
"date": "20250905",
"domain": "thehill.com",
"text": "National Republican Senate Committee is calling on Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) to stop stoking speculationChamber. The memo cites six separate polls conducted in August to demonstrate Cornyn trails Texas Attorney GeneralTe... |
ka_KXSHUTDOWNBY-26DEC31 | Government shutdown in 2026? | If the US government shuts down between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A government shutdown is considered ongoing if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management includes a notice that the federal government is at least partially shut down at any 10:00 AM ET during the period. Notices of a lap... | If the US government shuts down between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A government shutdown is considered ongoing if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management includes a notice that the federal government is at least partially shut down at any 10:00 AM ET during the period. Notices of a lap... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-09 | 2026-01-31 | strict | 2026-01-09 | [
{
"chunk_id": "7438231",
"date": "20250925",
"domain": "forbes.com",
"text": "government could partially shutdown on October 1. That's according to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket.extent. That including guaranteeing backpay for government employees once the government reopens. A Shutdown's ... |
ka_KXSNAPELECTIONJPN-27JAN01 | Will Japan announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2027? | If Japan officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A snap election announcement must be made by a person or body with legal authority to call elections in the specified country and must specify an actual election date. T... | If Japan officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A snap election announcement must be made by a person or body with legal authority to call elections in the specified country and must specify an actual election date. T... | yes_no | yes | 2025-09-07 | 2026-01-19 | strict | 2025-09-07 | [
{
"chunk_id": "4849850",
"date": "20250906",
"domain": "japantimes.co.jp",
"text": "early race. Japan's ruling party looks increasingly set to call an early leadership election, according to local media surveys, an outcomelikely result in the departure of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and heightened... |
ka_KXTEXASDEM1ROUND-26MAR03 | Will anyone win 2026 Texas Democratic Senate primary in the first round? | If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (>50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Texas Democratic Senate primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if ... | If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (>50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Texas Democratic Senate primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if ... | yes_no | yes | 2025-12-08 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2025-12-08 | [
{
"chunk_id": "5732870",
"date": "20250912",
"domain": "click2houston.com",
"text": "most essential Texas news. Recommended Videos Both the Democratic and Republican primaries for U.S. Senatepoll released Friday by Texas Public Opinion Research found. The survey's hypothetical Democratic primary, me... |
ka_KXTEXASGOP1ROUND-26MAR03 | Will anyone win 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary in the first round? | If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if any candida... | If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if any candida... | yes_no | no | 2025-10-13 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2025-10-13 | [
{
"chunk_id": "5726670",
"date": "20250912",
"domain": "abc7amarillo.com",
"text": "at the University of Texas shows voters' early perceptions of some declared and potential candidatesRepublican Sen. John Cornyn, has attracted a growing field of candidates from both parties leadingabout the 2026 Sen... |
ka_KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-VEN | Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Venezuela? | If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Venezuela after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2027 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the ... | If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Venezuela after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2027 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the ... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-05 | 2026-03-19 | strict | 2026-01-05 | [
{
"chunk_id": "16725017",
"date": "20251204",
"domain": "newsweek.com",
"text": "Venezuela. The U.S. Department of State on Wednesday warned Americans against traveling to Venezuela, maintaining a Level 4—\"Do Not Travel\"—advisory first issued in May amid rising tensions over the U.S.'s anti-drug t... |
ka_KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-41 | Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 41% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? | If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 41%, then the market resolves to Yes.
In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period. | If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 41%, then the market resolves to Yes.
In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period. | yes_no | yes | 2025-12-10 | 2026-02-18 | strict | 2025-12-10 | [
{
"chunk_id": "15125651",
"date": "20251121",
"domain": "newsweek.com",
"text": "percent approving and 56 percent disapproving. Why It Matters Declining approval ratings signal potential vulnerabilitythe midterms, raising questions about whether the coalition that powered his 2024 comeback is beginn... |
ka_KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-SWI | Will Donald Trump visit Switzerland before Jan 1, 2027? | If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Switzerland after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in... | If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Switzerland after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in... | yes_no | yes | 2025-12-01 | 2026-01-22 | strict | 2025-12-01 | [
{
"chunk_id": "14045832",
"date": "20251113",
"domain": "hindustantimes.com",
"text": "year, according to people familiar with his planning, signaling warming US-Swiss relations as the nationsWashington.(AP) Trump is planning to travel to Switzerland with a large entourage, according to peopleWhite ... |
ka_KXTRUMPGA14-26MAY19 | Will Donald Trump endorse a candidate other than Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia's 14th Congressional District (primary or general) before May 19, 2026? | If Donald Trump publicly endorses a candidate other than Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia's 14th Congressional District election (primary or general) before May 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the nominee's election. The statement must b... | If Donald Trump publicly endorses a candidate other than Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia's 14th Congressional District election (primary or general) before May 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the nominee's election. The statement must b... | yes_no | yes | 2025-11-17 | 2026-02-05 | strict | 2025-11-17 | [
{
"chunk_id": "14244404",
"date": "20251115",
"domain": "edition.cnn.com",
"text": "President Donald Trump announced Friday he is officially rescinding his endorsement of Rep. Marjorie TaylorWashington. \"I am withdrawing my support and Endorsement of 'Congresswoman' Marjorie Taylor Greene,\" Trump ... |
ka_KXTRUMPPOLLDAILY-26FEB21-A41.1 | Will Trump's VoteHub approval rating be above 41.1% on Feb 21, 2026? | If Donald Trump's VoteHub approval rating at 10:00 AM ET on Feb 21, 2026 is above 41.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Donald Trump's VoteHub approval rating at 10:00 AM ET on Feb 21, 2026 is above 41.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-18 | 2026-02-23 | strict | 2026-02-18 | [
{
"chunk_id": "22698118",
"date": "20260122",
"domain": "newsweek.com",
"text": "Matters Trump's approval has critical implications for Republicans as they work to preserve their majoritiesthe Senate and House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterms. If Trump's approval continuesurveyed 1,3... |
ka_KXTX18SPECIAL-26-CMEN | Who will win 2025 TX-18 special election? | If Christian Menefee wins the 2026 TX-18 special election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is inclusive of any runoff that may take place in this election if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the top-two primary. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensu... | If Christian Menefee wins the 2026 TX-18 special election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is inclusive of any runoff that may take place in this election if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the top-two primary. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensu... | yes_no | yes | 2025-10-27 | 2026-02-03 | strict | 2025-10-27 | [
{
"chunk_id": "10253737",
"date": "20251016",
"domain": "fox26houston.com",
"text": "Thursday indicate the race to fill the U.S. representative seat for Texas' 18th congressional districtspecial election. The top three candidates, according to the survey, were: 27% for Christian MenefeeTexas electio... |
ka_KXTX28D-26-HCUE | Wil Henry Cuellar be the Democratic nominee for TX-28? | If Henry Cuellar wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-28 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Henry Cuellar wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-28 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2025-04-01 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2025-04-01 | [] |
ka_KXTXPRIMARY-08R26-JSTE | Will Jessica Steinmann be the Republican nominee for TX-08? | If Jessica Steinmann wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-08 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Jessica Steinmann wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-08 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-10 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2026-02-10 | [
{
"chunk_id": "15377990",
"date": "20251124",
"domain": "1190talkradio.iheart.com",
"text": "Missouri-born Jasmine Crockett, a Democrat who's been the elected representative of one Texas US Congressionalstate Republican primary, which will likely be either incumbent John Cornyn or challenger Ken Pax... |
ka_KXTXPRIMARY-10R26-CGOB | Will Chris Gober be the Republican nominee for TX-10? | If Chris Gober wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-10 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Chris Gober wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-10 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-10 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2026-02-10 | [
{
"chunk_id": "17655992",
"date": "20251211",
"domain": "rasmussenreports.com",
"text": "GOP-drawn House map faced some legal hurdles, the Supreme Court recently greenlit the mid-decade gerrymanderthat same amount in 2024. Cuellar's ongoing legal jeopardy—specifically, the possibility that he'd even... |
ka_KXTXPRIMARY-13R26-CWED | Will Chasity Wedgeworth be the Republican nominee for TX-13? | If Chasity Wedgeworth wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Chasity Wedgeworth wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 TX-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | no | 2026-02-10 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2026-02-10 | [
{
"chunk_id": "17139387",
"date": "20251207",
"domain": "freestonecountytimesonline.com",
"text": "votetexas.gov for more information. The filing period for the upcoming 2026 Republican and Democratic Primary2026, with Early Voting running Tuesday, February 17 through Friday, February 27, 2026. Stat... |
ka_KXTXPRIMARY-21D26-KHOO | Will Kristin Hook be the Democratic nominee for TX-21? | If Kristin Hook wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-21 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Kristin Hook wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-21 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-10 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2026-02-10 | [
{
"chunk_id": "17741048",
"date": "20251212",
"domain": "sacurrent.com",
"text": "pro-science and pro-Medicare-for-all platform. Kristin Hook — who's also pro-vaccine, pro-Bernie Sanders and pro-Zohran MamdaniCongressional Science and Technology Fellow for U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and the National... |
ka_KXTXPRIMARY-22D26-MGRE | Will Marguette Greene-Scott be the Democratic nominee for TX-22? | If Marquette Greene-Scott wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-22 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Marquette Greene-Scott wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-22 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-10 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2026-02-10 | [
{
"chunk_id": "21301023",
"date": "20260112",
"domain": "atlantanewsfirst.com",
"text": "congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene's 14th congressional district is drawing the interest of several challengers aspiring to become Capitol Hill's newest elected representative. Greene announced she was resigni... |
ka_KXTXPRIMARY-34D26-EROS | Will Etienne Rosas be the Democratic nominee for TX-34? | If Etienne Rosas wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-34 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | If Etienne Rosas wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TX-34 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | no | 2026-02-10 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2026-02-10 | [
{
"chunk_id": "7956790",
"date": "20250929",
"domain": "houstonpublicmedia.org",
"text": "Screenshot/Texas House / State Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D-Houston) State Rep. Jon Rosenthal (D-Houston) announced MondayRepresentatives. Rosenthal, who represents Northwest Houston, Cypress and Jersey Village as par... |
ka_KXTXSENATETURNOUTGOPMINUSDEM-26NOV03-T0 | Will the total votes in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be higher than the total votes in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary? | If the total number of votes in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary minus the total number of votes in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes. | If the total number of votes in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary minus the total number of votes in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-21 | 2026-03-20 | strict | 2026-02-21 | [
{
"chunk_id": "5732870",
"date": "20250912",
"domain": "click2houston.com",
"text": "most essential Texas news. Recommended Videos Both the Democratic and Republican primaries for U.S. Senatepoll released Friday by Texas Public Opinion Research found. The survey's hypothetical Democratic primary, me... |
ka_KXTXSENCOMBO-26NOV-CROPAX | Will Dem Nominee be Jasmine Crockett AND GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton for Nov 2026? | If ALL of the following occur for Nov 2026: Dem Nominee: Jasmine Crockett, GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract imme... | If ALL of the following occur for Nov 2026: Dem Nominee: Jasmine Crockett, GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract imme... | yes_no | no | 2025-12-09 | 2026-03-06 | strict | 2025-12-09 | [
{
"chunk_id": "1686274",
"date": "20250813",
"domain": "2paragraphs.com",
"text": "top Republican primary rival, Paxton. Rep. Jasmine Crockett / Rep. Jasmine Crockett, / Gage Skidmorefaces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the primary. Former Democratic Texas Congressman Colin Allred,defeate... |
ka_KXVISITGREENLAND-26MAY01-SEN | Will any Senator visit Greenland before May 1, 2026? | If any U.S. Senator has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Greenland before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or ... | If any U.S. Senator has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Greenland before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or ... | yes_no | yes | 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-09 | strict | 2026-01-26 | [
{
"chunk_id": "22409432",
"date": "20260121",
"domain": "worthynews.com",
"text": "International Correspondent NUUK, GREENLAND (Worthy News) – Greenland's prime minister has warned residents and authoritiespreparations, the government is distributing new public guidelines, including a recommendation... |
ka_KXVISITNYC-26JUN01-JBIDNYC | Will Joe Biden visit New York City before Jun 1, 2026? | If Joe Biden has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of New York City before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or air... | If Joe Biden has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of New York City before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or air... | yes_no | yes | 2025-11-08 | 2026-01-15 | strict | 2025-11-08 | [
{
"chunk_id": "10128785",
"date": "20251015",
"domain": "nbcnewyork.com",
"text": "Manhattan and northwest Brooklyn. Lander, a progressive ally of Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, launched his campaignJanuary, leaving behind their rent-stabilized home in Astoria. In his statement, Mamdani said \"The deci... |
ka_KXVOTEHUBTRUMPUPDOWN-26MAR26 | Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 41.5% for Mar 26, 2026? | If the VoteHub time-adjusted average for Donald Trump's approval rating is above 41.5% for Mar 26, 2026 (as checked at Mar 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET), then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the VoteHub time-adjusted average displayed at the first 10:00 AM ET after the poll date when data is availa... | If the VoteHub time-adjusted average for Donald Trump's approval rating is above 41.5% for Mar 26, 2026 (as checked at Mar 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET), then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the VoteHub time-adjusted average displayed at the first 10:00 AM ET after the poll date when data is availa... | yes_no | no | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | strict | 2026-03-20 | [
{
"chunk_id": "20996488",
"date": "20260109",
"domain": "1061fmtalk.iheart.com",
"text": "average after the first full week of 2026, according to RealClearPolling.com. The polling website reports that Trump has an average 44.3% approval ratingsurvey concluded on January 7; a -14% spread in the Reute... |
ka_KXVOTESAVEAMERICA-26MAR-MAR24 | Will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act? | If Senate has conducted any recorded vote on the SAVE America Act before Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This includes:
Roll call votes
Recorded votes
Yea-and-nay votes
Electronic votes (in the House)
Division/standing votes
The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
Voice votes where individua... | If Senate has conducted any recorded vote on the SAVE America Act before Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This includes:
Roll call votes
Recorded votes
Yea-and-nay votes
Electronic votes (in the House)
Division/standing votes
The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
Voice votes where individua... | yes_no | no | 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-24 | strict | 2026-03-17 | [
{
"chunk_id": "29260931",
"date": "20260313",
"domain": "hotair.com",
"text": "Democrats on the record,\" he said. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) announced Thursday that he will bring the SAVE America Act to the Senate floor nextmeet the 60-vote threshold to pass. Advertisement \"It is a... |
ka_KXWAINCOMETAX-26APR01 | Will a state personal income tax become law in Washington before Apr 1, 2026? | If legislation that establishes a state personal income tax on individual residents of Washington, including taxes that apply only above a specified income threshold has become law in Washington before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requireme... | If legislation that establishes a state personal income tax on individual residents of Washington, including taxes that apply only above a specified income threshold has become law in Washington before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requireme... | yes_no | yes | 2026-02-11 | 2026-03-30 | strict | 2026-02-11 | [
{
"chunk_id": "24175793",
"date": "20260203",
"domain": "mynorthwest.com",
"text": "legislation without Republican help. Washington lawmakers introduced the long-awaited income tax on millionaires late Mondaypublished on the official legislative website. KIRO Newsradio was the first news organizatio... |
ka_KXYPFARGENTINA-28 | Will the appeals court reverse the YPF judgment against Argentina? | If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reverses or vacates in full the approximately $16.1 billion judgment against Argentina in the Petersen Energia / Eton Park YPF litigation before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. | If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reverses or vacates in full the approximately $16.1 billion judgment against Argentina in the Petersen Energia / Eton Park YPF litigation before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. | yes_no | yes | 2025-12-10 | 2026-03-27 | strict | 2025-12-10 | [
{
"chunk_id": "2037819",
"date": "20250815",
"domain": "devdiscourse.com",
"text": "the appeal process. (With inputs from agencies.) A U.S. appeals court has granted Argentina's requestdemanded Argentina relinquish its 51% stake in YPF, to partially satisfy a $16.1 billion judgment awarded to two in... |
mc_273 | 50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025? | (Background information is in the Resolution Criteria section.)
At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a "deliverable"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-... | (Background information is in the Resolution Criteria section.)
At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a "deliverable"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-... | yes_no | no | 2016-07-03 | 2025-09-01 | strict | 2016-07-03 | [] |
mc_5655 | Will Trump flee the United States? | Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),
> I'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prose... | Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),
> I'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prose... | yes_no | no | 2020-11-08 | 2026-01-07 | strict | 2020-11-08 | [] |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.