"""Render the correlation heatmap (FinePhrase Figure 22 style). Columns are the 20 downstream metrics grouped into 7 families. Rows are four predictor blocks: DCLM, Edu, and embedding-based diversity (the playbook's own predictors, for reference), then the G-Vendi block (Published, Reproduced, Base model, and Base model scored within-prompt). Every row but the last is the raw-pooled Spearman; the last is the within-prompt z-scored version. Cell colour is the correlation, the star is significance. All rows are computed on the same 83-cell grid (joined by run), so they are directly comparable. Inputs (relative to the artifact root): data/pub.json, data/{repro,prx06bb}/*.json data/reference_predictors.json (per-run DCLM / Edu / diversity values) data/downstream_scores.json (per-run downstream scores, Figure 22 source) Writes correlation_heatmap.png. Needs matplotlib + numpy + scipy. Run: python make_heatmap.py """ import glob, json, math from collections import defaultdict import numpy as np import matplotlib matplotlib.use("Agg") import matplotlib.pyplot as plt from matplotlib.patches import FancyBboxPatch from scipy.stats import spearmanr # ---------------------------------------------------------------- column layout COLUMN_GROUPS = [ ("OVERALL", [("macro", "Macro Avg", True), ("micro", "Micro Avg", True)]), ("KNOWLEDGE", [ ("GK", "GK Agg", True), ("arc", "ARC Easy", False), ("mmlu", "MMLU Redux", False)]), ("READING", [ ("RC", "RC Agg", True), ("squad", "SQuAD v2", False), ("drop", "DROP", False)]), ("REASONING", [ ("RES", "RES Agg", True), ("obqa", "OpenBookQA", False), ("xcsqa", "XCSQA", False)]), ("NLU", [ ("NLU", "NLU Agg", True), ("wino", "WinoGrande", False), ("piqa", "PIQA", False), ("hella", "HellaSwag", False)]), ("MATH", [("MATH", "Math Agg", True), ("gsm8k", "GSM8K", False)]), ("TABLE", [ ("TABLE", "Table Agg", True), ("wikitab", "WikiTableQ", False), ("treb", "TriviaQA", False)]), ] SHORT_TO_COL = { "macro": "agg_score_macro", "micro": "agg_score_micro", "RC": "agg_score_RC", "GK": "agg_score_GK", "NLU": "agg_score_NLU", "MATH": "agg_score_MATH", "TABLE": "agg_score_TABLE", "RES": "agg_score_RES", "arc": "lighteval|arc_cf:easy|3/prob_norm_token", "drop": "lighteval|drop|3/prob_norm_token", "gsm8k": "lighteval|gsm8k|3/prob_norm_token", "hella": "lighteval|hellaswag_cf|3/prob_norm_token", "obqa": "lighteval|openbookqa_cf|3/prob_norm_token", "piqa": "lighteval|piqa_cf|3/prob_norm_token", "squad": "lighteval|squad_v2|3/prob_norm_token", "treb": "lighteval|treb_qa|3/prob_norm_token", "wikitab": "lighteval|wikitablequestions|3/prob_norm_token", "wino": "lighteval|winogrande_cf|3/prob_norm_token", "xcsqa": "lighteval|xcsqa_cf|3/prob_norm_token", "mmlu": "lighteval|mmlu_redux_cf:_average|3/prob_norm_token", } EXCLUDED_FOOTNOTE1 = { "format/article:1b-hq", "format/commentary:1b-hq", "format/discussion:1b-hq", "format/tutorial:1b-hq", "format/tutorial:12b-hq", "format/faq:1b-lq", "format/faq:12b-lq", } # ---------------------------------------------------------------- load the grid # Downstream scores from the playbook's Figure 22 source (rephrasing_metadata.json), # keyed by run = "bucket/prompt-suffix". Stored under CSV-style column names, so we # translate to our short names via SHORT_TO_COL. _downstream = json.load(open("data/downstream_scores.json")) def lookup_scores(bucket, prompt, suffix): run = f"{bucket}/{prompt}-{suffix}" if run in _downstream: return {short: _downstream[run][col] for short, col in SHORT_TO_COL.items()} return None def load_by_cell(globpat): out = {} for fp in glob.glob(globpat): d = json.load(open(fp)) out[d["cell"]] = float(d["g_vendi"]) return out pub_gv = json.load(open("data/pub.json")) ref = json.load(open("data/reference_predictors.json")) gv = { "repro": load_by_cell("data/repro/*.json"), "prx06bb": load_by_cell("data/prx06bb/*.json"), } rows = [] # (bucket, prompt, {row_id: value}, {short: score}) for cell_full in sorted(gv["repro"]): if cell_full in EXCLUDED_FOOTNOTE1: continue bucket_prompt, suffix = cell_full.rsplit(":", 1) bucket, prompt = bucket_prompt.split("/", 1) pub_key = f"{bucket}/{prompt}-{suffix}" if pub_key not in pub_gv or pub_key not in ref: continue scores = lookup_scores(bucket, prompt, suffix) if scores is None: continue vals = {"pub": float(pub_gv[pub_key]["g_vendi_score"])} vals.update({p: gv[p][cell_full] for p in gv}) vals.update({k: (float(v) if v is not None else float("nan")) for k, v in ref[pub_key].items()}) rows.append((bucket, prompt, vals, scores)) print(f"matched cells: {len(rows)}") # ---------------------------------------------------------------- correlations def raw_corr(row_id, short): g = np.array([r[2][row_id] for r in rows], float) m = np.array([r[3][short] for r in rows], float) ok = ~(np.isnan(g) | np.isnan(m)) res = spearmanr(g[ok], m[ok]) return float(res.statistic), float(res.pvalue) def zwithin_corr(row_id, short): byp = defaultdict(list) for r in rows: a, b = r[2][row_id], r[3][short] if not (math.isnan(a) or math.isnan(b)): byp[f"{r[0]}/{r[1]}"].append((a, b)) zg, zm = [], [] for v in byp.values(): n = len(v) if n < 3: continue gs = [x[0] for x in v]; ms = [x[1] for x in v] mg, mm = sum(gs) / n, sum(ms) / n sg = math.sqrt(sum((x - mg) ** 2 for x in gs) / n) sm = math.sqrt(sum((x - mm) ** 2 for x in ms) / n) for a, b in v: zg.append((a - mg) / sg if sg else 0.0) zm.append((b - mm) / sm if sm else 0.0) res = spearmanr(zg, zm) return float(res.statistic), float(res.pvalue) def stars(p): if p < 0.001: return "***" if p < 0.01: return "**" if p < 0.05: return "*" return "" # ---------------------------------------------------------------- draw (mirrors the playbook's D3 embed) flat_cols = [(s, lbl, agg) for _, members in COLUMN_GROUPS for (s, lbl, agg) in members] N_COL = len(flat_cols) CELL_W, CELL_H = 1.0, 0.82 ROUND = 0.085 GROUP_GAP = 0.34 # gap between row-groups def col_x(i): return i * CELL_W col_group_spans, _c = [], 0 for _t, _members in COLUMN_GROUPS: col_group_spans.append((_t, _c, len(_members))) _c += len(_members) total_w = N_COL * CELL_W # colours: d3.scaleDiverging([-0.85,0,0.85], interpolateRdBu) on cellColor(-r), # then alpha-faded toward the white page near rho=0. RdBu = plt.get_cmap("RdBu") def cell_rgb(r): cval = float(np.clip((0.85 - r) / 1.7, 0.0, 1.0)) rgb = np.array(RdBu(cval)[:3]) alpha = float(np.clip(abs(r) / 0.85 * 1.8, 0.12, 1.0)) return tuple(rgb * alpha + (1.0 - alpha)) DARK, MUTED, DIV = "#4d4d4d", "#a6a6a6", "#8c8c8c" # Rows for the figure: reference predictors (raw) for context, then the proxy # comparison: Published / Reproduced / Base model on raw, and Base model again # on the within-prompt metric. corr is "raw" or "zw" per row. CORR = {"raw": raw_corr, "zw": zwithin_corr} FIG_ROWS = [ ("DCLM", [("output_dclm_score", "Output DCLM", "raw"), ("input_dclm_score", "Input DCLM", "raw"), ("dclm_score_difference", "DCLM Δ", "raw"), ("dclm_score_improvement", "DCLM Improv %", "raw")]), ("Edu", [("output_edu_score", "Output Edu", "raw"), ("input_edu_score", "Input Edu", "raw"), ("edu_score_difference", "Edu Δ", "raw"), ("edu_score_improvement", "Edu Improv %", "raw")]), ("Diversity", [("vendi_score", "Vendi Score", "raw"), ("mean_intra_cos_sim", "Mean cos sim", "raw"), ("near_dup_rate", "Near-dup rate", "raw")]), ("G-Vendi", [("pub", "Published", "raw"), ("repro", "Reproduced", "raw"), ("prx06bb", "Base model", "raw"), ("prx06bb", "Base (within-prompt)", "zw")]), ] def render(row_groups, outfile, title): """One heatmap: predictor rows (each with its own metric) vs the 20 benchmarks.""" placed, spans, y = [], [], 0.0 for gi, (gname, members) in enumerate(row_groups): gstart = y for row_id, label, metric in members: placed.append((row_id, label, metric, y)) y += CELL_H spans.append((gname, gstart, y)) if gi < len(row_groups) - 1: y += GROUP_GAP total_h = y width_span = total_w + 2.9 height_span = total_h + 6.8 SCALE = 0.42 fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(width_span * SCALE, height_span * SCALE)) for row_id, plabel, metric, yc in placed: for ci, (short, label, agg) in enumerate(flat_cols): rho, p = CORR[metric](row_id, short) xc = col_x(ci) ax.add_patch(FancyBboxPatch( (xc + 0.06, yc + 0.06), CELL_W - 0.12, CELL_H - 0.12, boxstyle=f"round,pad=0,rounding_size={ROUND}", facecolor=cell_rgb(rho), edgecolor="white", linewidth=0.8)) tcol = "white" if abs(rho) > 0.45 else DARK ax.text(xc + CELL_W / 2, yc + CELL_H / 2, f"{rho:.2f}", ha="center", va="center", fontsize=8.3, color=tcol, fontweight="bold" if abs(rho) > 0.4 else "normal") st = stars(p) if st: ax.text(xc + CELL_W - 0.1, yc + 0.16, st, ha="right", va="center", fontsize=6.5, fontweight="bold", color=("white" if abs(rho) > 0.45 else MUTED)) # vertical dividers between column groups for gi, (t, start, n) in enumerate(col_group_spans): if gi > 0: x = col_x(start) ax.plot([x, x], [-0.04, total_h + 0.02], color=DIV, linewidth=1.5 if gi == 1 else 0.9, linestyle="-" if gi == 1 else (0, (4, 3)), zorder=0) # horizontal dividers between row-groups for gi, (gname, gs, ge) in enumerate(spans): if gi > 0: yd = gs - GROUP_GAP / 2 ax.plot([-0.02, total_w + 0.02], [yd, yd], color="#9a9a9a", linewidth=1.4, zorder=0) # column family headers + bracket lines for t, start, n in col_group_spans: xmid = col_x(start) + n * CELL_W / 2 ax.text(xmid, -3.30, t, ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=8.5, fontweight="bold", color="#555555") ax.plot([col_x(start) + 0.08, col_x(start) + n * CELL_W - 0.08], [-3.12, -3.12], color=MUTED, linewidth=0.9) # column labels (rotated, aggregates bold) for ci, (short, label, agg) in enumerate(flat_cols): ax.text(col_x(ci) + CELL_W / 2, -0.12, label, ha="left", va="bottom", rotation=52, rotation_mode="anchor", fontsize=8, color=DARK, fontweight="bold" if agg else "normal") # subtle separator above any within-prompt row (it uses a different metric) for row_id, plabel, metric, yc in placed: if metric == "zw": ax.plot([-0.02, total_w + 0.02], [yc - 0.02, yc - 0.02], color="#b0b0b0", linewidth=0.9, linestyle=(0, (3, 2)), zorder=0) # row labels + per-group rotated labels for row_id, plabel, metric, yc in placed: ax.text(-0.18, yc + CELL_H / 2, plabel, ha="right", va="center", fontsize=8.5, fontstyle=("italic" if metric == "zw" else "normal"), color=("#1a6fb0" if metric == "zw" else "#333333")) for gname, gs, ge in spans: ax.text(-3.05, (gs + ge) / 2, gname, ha="center", va="center", rotation=90, fontsize=8.5, fontweight="bold", color="#777777") ax.plot([-2.7, -2.7], [gs + 0.04, ge - 0.04], color=MUTED, linewidth=1.0) # legend leg_y = total_h + 1.1 ax.text(0, leg_y - 0.6, "Legend", ha="left", va="center", fontsize=9.5, fontweight="bold", color="#333333") for i, r in enumerate([-0.6, -0.3, 0.0, 0.3, 0.6]): lx = i * 2.3 ax.add_patch(FancyBboxPatch((lx, leg_y), 0.62, 0.42, boxstyle="round,pad=0,rounding_size=0.05", facecolor=cell_rgb(r), edgecolor="#dddddd", linewidth=0.7)) ax.text(lx + 0.78, leg_y + 0.21, f"ρ = {r:+.1f}".replace("+0.0", "0"), ha="left", va="center", fontsize=8, color="#444444") ax.text(0, leg_y + 1.0, "*** p<0.001 ** p<0.01 * p<0.05", ha="left", va="center", fontsize=8, color="#888888") ax.set_xlim(-3.5, total_w + 0.15) ax.set_ylim(leg_y + 1.4, -4.3) ax.axis("off") ax.set_aspect("equal") ax.set_title(title, fontsize=12, fontweight="bold", pad=18, loc="left", x=0.0) fig.savefig(outfile, dpi=170, bbox_inches="tight", facecolor="white") plt.close(fig) print(f"wrote {outfile}") render(FIG_ROWS, "correlation_heatmap.png", "Correlation with downstream benchmarks (raw-pooled; last row is within-prompt)")