Upload SP500_Date_Offset.py
Browse files- SP500_Date_Offset.py +812 -0
SP500_Date_Offset.py
ADDED
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| 1 |
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# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
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| 2 |
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"""
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| 3 |
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Created on Wed May 1 13:17:02 2024
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| 4 |
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| 5 |
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@author: RC
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| 6 |
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"""
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| 7 |
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| 8 |
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| 9 |
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| 10 |
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| 11 |
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| 12 |
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# ================================ LIBRARIES ================================ #
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| 13 |
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import numpy as np
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| 14 |
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import pandas as pd
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| 15 |
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import yfinance as yf
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| 16 |
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import datasets
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| 17 |
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from typing import List
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| 18 |
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import csv
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| 19 |
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import json
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| 20 |
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import logging
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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import warnings
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| 23 |
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from fredapi import Fred
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| 24 |
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from time import sleep
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| 25 |
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from urllib.request import Request, urlopen
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| 26 |
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from bs4 import BeautifulSoup as soup
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| 27 |
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| 28 |
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| 29 |
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| 30 |
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| 31 |
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dictArgs = {'key_file_path' : 'fred_api_key.txt', # set local directory
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| 32 |
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'fred_source_path' : 'fred.csv', # set location of data dictionary
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| 33 |
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'security_sym' : '^GSPC', # set security symbol
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| 34 |
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'security_name' : 'SP500', # set security name
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| 35 |
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'export_path' : 'SP500_Date_Offset.csv' # set export destination
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| 36 |
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}
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| 37 |
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| 38 |
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# =========================================================================== #
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| 39 |
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| 40 |
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| 41 |
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| 42 |
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| 43 |
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| 44 |
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# ================================== INFO =================================== #
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| 45 |
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_CITATION = """\
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| 46 |
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@online{BEA_GDP,
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| 47 |
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author = {{U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis}},
|
| 48 |
+
title = {Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1]},
|
| 49 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 50 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1},
|
| 51 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 52 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-13}
|
| 53 |
+
}
|
| 54 |
+
@online{Consumer_Sentiment,
|
| 55 |
+
author = {{Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan}},
|
| 56 |
+
title = {University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment © [UMCSENT]},
|
| 57 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 58 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT},
|
| 59 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 60 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-13}
|
| 61 |
+
}
|
| 62 |
+
@online{CPI_All_Items,
|
| 63 |
+
author = {{U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics}},
|
| 64 |
+
title = {Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average [CPIAUCSL]},
|
| 65 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 66 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL},
|
| 67 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 68 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-13}
|
| 69 |
+
}
|
| 70 |
+
@online{CPI_All_Items_Less_Food_Energy,
|
| 71 |
+
author = {{U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics}},
|
| 72 |
+
title = {Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average [CPILFESL]},
|
| 73 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 74 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL},
|
| 75 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 76 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-13}
|
| 77 |
+
}
|
| 78 |
+
@online{Fed_Funds_Rate,
|
| 79 |
+
author = {{Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)}},
|
| 80 |
+
title = {Federal Funds Effective Rate [DFF]},
|
| 81 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 82 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF},
|
| 83 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 84 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-20}
|
| 85 |
+
}
|
| 86 |
+
@online{New_Housing_Units_Started,
|
| 87 |
+
author = {{U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development}},
|
| 88 |
+
title = {New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units [HOUST]},
|
| 89 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 90 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST},
|
| 91 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 92 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-19}
|
| 93 |
+
}
|
| 94 |
+
@online{New_One_Family_Houses_Sold,
|
| 95 |
+
author = {{U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development}},
|
| 96 |
+
title = {New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F]},
|
| 97 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 98 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F},
|
| 99 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 100 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-13}
|
| 101 |
+
}
|
| 102 |
+
@online{PCE_Chain_Price_Index,
|
| 103 |
+
author = {{U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis}},
|
| 104 |
+
title = {Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index [PCEPI]},
|
| 105 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 106 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI},
|
| 107 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 108 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-13}
|
| 109 |
+
}
|
| 110 |
+
@online{PCE_Excluding_Food_Energy,
|
| 111 |
+
author = {{U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis}},
|
| 112 |
+
title = {Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE]},
|
| 113 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 114 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE},
|
| 115 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 116 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-13}
|
| 117 |
+
}
|
| 118 |
+
@online{SP500,
|
| 119 |
+
author = {{S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC}},
|
| 120 |
+
title = {S\&P 500 [SP500]},
|
| 121 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 122 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500},
|
| 123 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 124 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-20}
|
| 125 |
+
}
|
| 126 |
+
@online{Total_Construction_Spending,
|
| 127 |
+
author = {{U.S. Census Bureau}},
|
| 128 |
+
title = {Total Construction Spending: Total Construction in the United States [TTLCONS]},
|
| 129 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 130 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLCONS},
|
| 131 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 132 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-13}
|
| 133 |
+
}
|
| 134 |
+
@online{Total_Nonfarm_Employees,
|
| 135 |
+
author = {{U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics}},
|
| 136 |
+
title = {All Employees, Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS]},
|
| 137 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 138 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS},
|
| 139 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 140 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-13}
|
| 141 |
+
}
|
| 142 |
+
@online{Unemployment_Rate,
|
| 143 |
+
author = {{U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics}},
|
| 144 |
+
title = {Unemployment Rate [UNRATE]},
|
| 145 |
+
year = {2024},
|
| 146 |
+
url = {https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE},
|
| 147 |
+
organization = {FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis},
|
| 148 |
+
urldate = {2024-03-13}
|
| 149 |
+
}
|
| 150 |
+
"""
|
| 151 |
+
|
| 152 |
+
# You can copy an official description
|
| 153 |
+
_DESCRIPTION = """\
|
| 154 |
+
The S&P 500 Date Offset project seeks to offer an alternative way of modeling
|
| 155 |
+
financial trends from economic conditions.
|
| 156 |
+
|
| 157 |
+
Due to the rigorous tabulation process, the gap between when economic data is
|
| 158 |
+
reported and the time which it is meant to describe can be months. Moreover,
|
| 159 |
+
when this data is released, it is usually backdated to correspond with the date
|
| 160 |
+
of the first day of the time period it reflects. That said, if the data causes
|
| 161 |
+
a correction in financial markets, that change will be reflected in the data
|
| 162 |
+
for the day of the release (and not the back dated day!).
|
| 163 |
+
|
| 164 |
+
That prompts the immediate question: would data offset to reflect investors'
|
| 165 |
+
knowledge in the moment provide a better model for the markets than the
|
| 166 |
+
traditionally structured data?
|
| 167 |
+
|
| 168 |
+
In addition to the S&P 500 daily close price--which is used here to represent
|
| 169 |
+
the stock market overall--variables were chosen from the list of Leading,
|
| 170 |
+
Lagging and Coincident Indicators as maintained by the Conference Board.
|
| 171 |
+
Those variables and their transformations are:
|
| 172 |
+
(M/M = Month-over-month percent change,
|
| 173 |
+
Q/Q = Quarter-over-quarter percent change,
|
| 174 |
+
Y/Y = Year-over-year percent change
|
| 175 |
+
)
|
| 176 |
+
|
| 177 |
+
- Consumer Sentiment, University of Michigan
|
| 178 |
+
Freq: Monthly
|
| 179 |
+
Tran: M/M, Y/Y
|
| 180 |
+
|
| 181 |
+
- Consumer Price Index
|
| 182 |
+
- All Items
|
| 183 |
+
- All Items less Food & Energy
|
| 184 |
+
Freq: Monthly
|
| 185 |
+
Tran: M/M, Y/Y
|
| 186 |
+
|
| 187 |
+
- Federal Funds Rate
|
| 188 |
+
Freq: Daily
|
| 189 |
+
Tran: None
|
| 190 |
+
|
| 191 |
+
- Gross Domestic Product
|
| 192 |
+
Freq: Quarterly
|
| 193 |
+
Tran: Q/Q, Y/Y
|
| 194 |
+
|
| 195 |
+
- New Housing Units Started
|
| 196 |
+
Freq: Monthly
|
| 197 |
+
Tran: M/M, Y/Y
|
| 198 |
+
|
| 199 |
+
- New One Family Houses Sold
|
| 200 |
+
Freq: Monthly
|
| 201 |
+
Tran: M/M, Y/Y
|
| 202 |
+
|
| 203 |
+
- Personal Consumption Expenditure: Chain-type Price Index
|
| 204 |
+
- All Items
|
| 205 |
+
- All Items excluding Food & Energy
|
| 206 |
+
Freq: Monthly
|
| 207 |
+
Tran: M/M, Y/Y
|
| 208 |
+
|
| 209 |
+
- Total Construction Spending
|
| 210 |
+
Freq: Monthly
|
| 211 |
+
Tran: M/M, Y/Y
|
| 212 |
+
|
| 213 |
+
- Total Nonfarm Employment
|
| 214 |
+
Freq: Monthly
|
| 215 |
+
Tran: M/M, Y/Y
|
| 216 |
+
|
| 217 |
+
- Unemployment Rate
|
| 218 |
+
Freq: Monthly
|
| 219 |
+
Tran: M/M, Y/Y
|
| 220 |
+
|
| 221 |
+
"""
|
| 222 |
+
|
| 223 |
+
# Homepage
|
| 224 |
+
_HOMEPAGE = "https://github.com/RileyTheEcon/SP500_Date_Offset"
|
| 225 |
+
|
| 226 |
+
# License is a mix of Public Domain and Creative Commons
|
| 227 |
+
# Sourcing the data so that it is all Public Domain is a longer term goal for
|
| 228 |
+
# this project
|
| 229 |
+
_LICENSE = ""
|
| 230 |
+
|
| 231 |
+
# The HuggingFace Datasets library doesn't host the datasets but only points to the original files.
|
| 232 |
+
# This can be an arbitrary nested dict/list of URLs (see below in `_split_generators` method)
|
| 233 |
+
_URL = "https://huggingface.co/datasets/rc9494/SP500_Date_Offset/dataset/"
|
| 234 |
+
_URLS = {
|
| 235 |
+
"dev": _URL + "blob/main/SP500_Date_Offset.csv"
|
| 236 |
+
}
|
| 237 |
+
# =========================================================================== #
|
| 238 |
+
|
| 239 |
+
|
| 240 |
+
|
| 241 |
+
|
| 242 |
+
|
| 243 |
+
# ================================ FUNCTIONS ================================ #
|
| 244 |
+
# I originally developed the below function for a personal project and built
|
| 245 |
+
# on it for this assignment: originally took data series names and ID codes as
|
| 246 |
+
# List of Tuples, expanded functionality to take table instead and create the
|
| 247 |
+
# list of tuples internally
|
| 248 |
+
def get_fred_data (fred_key, dfFred,
|
| 249 |
+
col_names = {'Name':'Name', 'SeriesID':'SeriesID'},
|
| 250 |
+
try_limit=5, courtesy_sleep = 0.5
|
| 251 |
+
) :
|
| 252 |
+
'''
|
| 253 |
+
Parameters
|
| 254 |
+
----------
|
| 255 |
+
fred_key : STR
|
| 256 |
+
Valid FRED API as str
|
| 257 |
+
dfFred : DataFrame-like
|
| 258 |
+
DataFrame-like with an array of desired variable names, and FRED
|
| 259 |
+
series ID codes
|
| 260 |
+
col_names : DICT, optional
|
| 261 |
+
Dictionary matching column names of dfFred column names with the column
|
| 262 |
+
names assumed by the function.
|
| 263 |
+
try_limit : INT, optional
|
| 264 |
+
Function will attempt to access the data associated with a given series
|
| 265 |
+
ID this many times before issuing a warning and continuing.
|
| 266 |
+
The default is 5.
|
| 267 |
+
courtesy_sleep: FLT, optional
|
| 268 |
+
Wait between making new server requests to avoid flooding the server,
|
| 269 |
+
or if the server is erroring. The default is 0.5 seconds.
|
| 270 |
+
Returns : dfData
|
| 271 |
+
-------
|
| 272 |
+
DATAFRAME
|
| 273 |
+
Returns a dataframe of data requested from FRED server. Each data
|
| 274 |
+
series is in its own column, joined on datetime index, and sorted
|
| 275 |
+
chronologically
|
| 276 |
+
'''
|
| 277 |
+
|
| 278 |
+
dfFred = pd.DataFrame(dfFred) # convert to DF object for version control
|
| 279 |
+
dfData = pd.DataFrame() # create place in memory
|
| 280 |
+
fred = Fred(fred_key) # convert to API key object
|
| 281 |
+
|
| 282 |
+
|
| 283 |
+
|
| 284 |
+
# Version control df names
|
| 285 |
+
col_names = {value:key for key, value in col_names.items()}
|
| 286 |
+
dfFred.rename(columns=col_names, inplace=True)
|
| 287 |
+
|
| 288 |
+
|
| 289 |
+
|
| 290 |
+
# Remove gaps & warn duplicates
|
| 291 |
+
dfFred = dfFred.dropna()
|
| 292 |
+
|
| 293 |
+
item_dupe = []
|
| 294 |
+
for name in dfFred.columns :
|
| 295 |
+
item_dupe = dfFred[dfFred.duplicated(name)][name].tolist()
|
| 296 |
+
if len(item_dupe)>0 :
|
| 297 |
+
warnings.warn(f"Duplicated entries found in '{name}': {item_dupe}")
|
| 298 |
+
# end if
|
| 299 |
+
# end for
|
| 300 |
+
dfFred = dfFred[~dfFred['Name'].duplicated(keep='first')]
|
| 301 |
+
|
| 302 |
+
|
| 303 |
+
|
| 304 |
+
# Download data -- using item-wise iter to be nice to hosting server
|
| 305 |
+
for indx, row in dfFred.iterrows() :
|
| 306 |
+
bContinue = 0
|
| 307 |
+
intErrorCount = 0
|
| 308 |
+
|
| 309 |
+
while (bContinue==0)&(intErrorCount<try_limit) :
|
| 310 |
+
try : # Attempt dl through API
|
| 311 |
+
data = pd.DataFrame(fred.get_series(row['SeriesID'])
|
| 312 |
+
).rename(columns={0:row['Name']})
|
| 313 |
+
data.index.name = 'date'
|
| 314 |
+
except : # Extract data from raw txt page if API fails for any reason
|
| 315 |
+
try:
|
| 316 |
+
htmlPage = dlURL('https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/'+
|
| 317 |
+
row['SeriesID']+'.txt')
|
| 318 |
+
|
| 319 |
+
listRows = htmlPage.text.split('\n')
|
| 320 |
+
listRows = listRows[listRows.index([x for x in listRows
|
| 321 |
+
if 'DATE' in x][0])+1:]
|
| 322 |
+
listRows = [[pd.to_datetime(x[:x.index(' ')]),
|
| 323 |
+
float(isolate_better(x,' ','\r',b_end=1))
|
| 324 |
+
]
|
| 325 |
+
for x in listRows if x!=''
|
| 326 |
+
]
|
| 327 |
+
|
| 328 |
+
data = pd.DataFrame(listRows,columns=['index',row['Name']]
|
| 329 |
+
).set_index('index')
|
| 330 |
+
data.index.name = 'date'
|
| 331 |
+
except :
|
| 332 |
+
intErrorCount+=1
|
| 333 |
+
sleep(1)
|
| 334 |
+
else : bContinue = 1
|
| 335 |
+
# endtry
|
| 336 |
+
else : bContinue = 1
|
| 337 |
+
# endtry
|
| 338 |
+
# endwhile
|
| 339 |
+
|
| 340 |
+
# If both approaches above fail - warn user
|
| 341 |
+
if intErrorCount>=try_limit :
|
| 342 |
+
warnings.warn('\nFailure in accessing data from:\n'+
|
| 343 |
+
f'Name: {row["Name"]}\n'+
|
| 344 |
+
f'ID: {row["SeriesID"]}\n'
|
| 345 |
+
)
|
| 346 |
+
|
| 347 |
+
# If the above ran successfully - append along date index
|
| 348 |
+
else :
|
| 349 |
+
if len(dfData)==0 : dfData = data
|
| 350 |
+
else : dfData = dfData.join(data,how='outer',
|
| 351 |
+
)
|
| 352 |
+
# endif
|
| 353 |
+
|
| 354 |
+
sleep(courtesy_sleep) # Let's do our best to be polite to the hosting server
|
| 355 |
+
# endfor
|
| 356 |
+
|
| 357 |
+
return dfData.sort_index()
|
| 358 |
+
####
|
| 359 |
+
def get_historic_data (SeriesID, api_key,
|
| 360 |
+
series_name = 'value',
|
| 361 |
+
stale_data = 500
|
| 362 |
+
) :
|
| 363 |
+
|
| 364 |
+
# Get data
|
| 365 |
+
fred = Fred(api_key)
|
| 366 |
+
df = fred.get_series_all_releases(SeriesID)
|
| 367 |
+
|
| 368 |
+
# Calc gap between reported date and actual date; drop stale data
|
| 369 |
+
df['diff'] = df['realtime_start'] - df['date']
|
| 370 |
+
df = df[df['diff'] <= pd.Timedelta(str(stale_data)+' days')
|
| 371 |
+
].copy()
|
| 372 |
+
|
| 373 |
+
# Get most recent data by actual date
|
| 374 |
+
# Some reports contain original data and revisions, so we grab the most
|
| 375 |
+
# current data from each reporting date
|
| 376 |
+
max_order_indices = (df.sort_values('date')
|
| 377 |
+
.groupby('realtime_start')['date']
|
| 378 |
+
.idxmax()
|
| 379 |
+
)
|
| 380 |
+
df = df.loc[max_order_indices].copy()
|
| 381 |
+
|
| 382 |
+
# Drop unneeded columns; set index
|
| 383 |
+
for col in ['date', 'diff'] : del df[col]
|
| 384 |
+
|
| 385 |
+
dict_rename = {'realtime_start' : 'date'}
|
| 386 |
+
if series_name!='value' : dict_rename['value'] = series_name
|
| 387 |
+
|
| 388 |
+
df.rename(columns = dict_rename,
|
| 389 |
+
inplace = True
|
| 390 |
+
)
|
| 391 |
+
df.set_index('date', inplace = True)
|
| 392 |
+
|
| 393 |
+
return df
|
| 394 |
+
####
|
| 395 |
+
def dlURL (url , parser = "html.parser" ) :
|
| 396 |
+
req = Request(url,headers={'User-Agent':'Mozilla/5.0'})
|
| 397 |
+
urlClient = urlopen(req)
|
| 398 |
+
pageRough = urlClient.read()
|
| 399 |
+
urlClient.close()
|
| 400 |
+
pageSoup = soup(pageRough,parser)
|
| 401 |
+
|
| 402 |
+
return pageSoup
|
| 403 |
+
#### / ####
|
| 404 |
+
# "isolate_better" and its helper function "reverse" are functions I originally
|
| 405 |
+
# wrote for a personal project while still teaching myself Python basics.
|
| 406 |
+
# Is it a crude and inefficient way to do something that there are probably
|
| 407 |
+
# native functions/methods for? Probably, but it works with the other
|
| 408 |
+
# pre-existing code I have.
|
| 409 |
+
def reverse (stri) :
|
| 410 |
+
x = ""
|
| 411 |
+
for i in stri :
|
| 412 |
+
x = i + x
|
| 413 |
+
return x
|
| 414 |
+
####
|
| 415 |
+
def isolate_better (stri , start , end, b_end = 0) :
|
| 416 |
+
strShort = ''
|
| 417 |
+
posStart = 0
|
| 418 |
+
posEnd = 0
|
| 419 |
+
|
| 420 |
+
if b_end==1 :
|
| 421 |
+
posEnd = stri.find(end)
|
| 422 |
+
strShort = stri[:posEnd]
|
| 423 |
+
strShort = reverse(strShort)
|
| 424 |
+
start = reverse(start)
|
| 425 |
+
posStart = posEnd - strShort.find(start)
|
| 426 |
+
#
|
| 427 |
+
else :
|
| 428 |
+
posStart = stri.find(start)+len(start)
|
| 429 |
+
strShort = stri[posStart:]
|
| 430 |
+
posEnd = posStart + strShort.find(end)
|
| 431 |
+
#
|
| 432 |
+
return stri[posStart:posEnd]
|
| 433 |
+
####
|
| 434 |
+
def check_data (dfFred, fred_key) :
|
| 435 |
+
# Check to make sure sufficient data is available
|
| 436 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame() # create space in memory
|
| 437 |
+
|
| 438 |
+
for i,r in dfFred[~dfFred['Freq'].isin(['Daily', 'Weekly'])].iterrows() :
|
| 439 |
+
# Download data
|
| 440 |
+
df = get_historic_data(r['SeriesID'],
|
| 441 |
+
fred_key,
|
| 442 |
+
r['Name']
|
| 443 |
+
)
|
| 444 |
+
|
| 445 |
+
# Report series statistics
|
| 446 |
+
print(r['Name'],'\n',
|
| 447 |
+
'First Obs.: ', df.first_valid_index(), '\n',
|
| 448 |
+
'Count Obs.: ', len(df), '\n',
|
| 449 |
+
'\n'
|
| 450 |
+
)
|
| 451 |
+
# end for i,r
|
| 452 |
+
#### / ####
|
| 453 |
+
def main(key_file_path, # File path for FRED API key, txt
|
| 454 |
+
fred_source_path, # File path for variable names & FRED series ID, csv
|
| 455 |
+
security_sym, # Ticker symbol for security of interest (S&P 500)
|
| 456 |
+
security_name, # Name of security of interest
|
| 457 |
+
export_path # File path to save data
|
| 458 |
+
) :
|
| 459 |
+
|
| 460 |
+
|
| 461 |
+
|
| 462 |
+
# Seek API key; Prompt user if not found; access from repo if not given
|
| 463 |
+
bDownload = False # Bool: Dl from repo or generate fresh?
|
| 464 |
+
# true = download pre-generated data from repo ; false = gen new
|
| 465 |
+
|
| 466 |
+
try :
|
| 467 |
+
# try to get key from file
|
| 468 |
+
with open(key_file_path, 'r') as file :
|
| 469 |
+
fred_key = file.read()
|
| 470 |
+
# endwith
|
| 471 |
+
|
| 472 |
+
except FileNotFoundError :
|
| 473 |
+
print('FRED api key not found!\n'+
|
| 474 |
+
'Please enter api key or hit enter to download static dataset from repo:'
|
| 475 |
+
)
|
| 476 |
+
fred_key = input()
|
| 477 |
+
|
| 478 |
+
if len(fred_key)==0 : bDownload = True
|
| 479 |
+
else :
|
| 480 |
+
pass # test validity of api key
|
| 481 |
+
# end if len
|
| 482 |
+
|
| 483 |
+
except Exception as oops : print(f"Something odd happened: {oops}")
|
| 484 |
+
#
|
| 485 |
+
|
| 486 |
+
|
| 487 |
+
|
| 488 |
+
|
| 489 |
+
|
| 490 |
+
# Import list of variables if it exists ; else download from repo
|
| 491 |
+
if not bDownload : # skip chunk if we're dl'ing from repo
|
| 492 |
+
try :
|
| 493 |
+
# import list of variable to pull
|
| 494 |
+
dfFred = pd.read_csv(fred_source_path)
|
| 495 |
+
|
| 496 |
+
except FileNotFoundError :
|
| 497 |
+
print('Could not find list of variables to generate: '+
|
| 498 |
+
fred_source_path+'\n'+
|
| 499 |
+
'Switching to download static dataset from repo instead!\n'
|
| 500 |
+
)
|
| 501 |
+
bDownload = True
|
| 502 |
+
|
| 503 |
+
# end try/except
|
| 504 |
+
# end if bDownload
|
| 505 |
+
|
| 506 |
+
#
|
| 507 |
+
|
| 508 |
+
|
| 509 |
+
|
| 510 |
+
|
| 511 |
+
|
| 512 |
+
# If above checks fail, then download from existing repo
|
| 513 |
+
if bDownload :
|
| 514 |
+
dfData = pd.read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/RileyTheEcon/'+
|
| 515 |
+
'SP500_Date_Offset/main/SP500_Offset.csv',
|
| 516 |
+
index_col='Date'
|
| 517 |
+
)
|
| 518 |
+
|
| 519 |
+
# If all above checks pass, generate fresh data from FRED api
|
| 520 |
+
else :
|
| 521 |
+
|
| 522 |
+
# Download YFinance data
|
| 523 |
+
dfFinance = yf.download(security_sym)['Adj Close']
|
| 524 |
+
dfFinance.rename(security_name, inplace=True)
|
| 525 |
+
#
|
| 526 |
+
|
| 527 |
+
|
| 528 |
+
|
| 529 |
+
|
| 530 |
+
|
| 531 |
+
# Iter thru data series; handle as specified
|
| 532 |
+
dfEcon = pd.DataFrame() # make place in memory
|
| 533 |
+
|
| 534 |
+
for i,r in dfFred.iterrows() :
|
| 535 |
+
if not pd.notnull(r['SeriesID']) : # skip if info missing
|
| 536 |
+
continue
|
| 537 |
+
# end if
|
| 538 |
+
|
| 539 |
+
# Create space in memory
|
| 540 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame()
|
| 541 |
+
|
| 542 |
+
# Import data
|
| 543 |
+
if r['Freq'] in ['Daily', 'Weekly'] :
|
| 544 |
+
# Dl data for daily/ weekly freq
|
| 545 |
+
df = get_fred_data(fred_key,
|
| 546 |
+
pd.DataFrame(r).T[['Name','SeriesID']]
|
| 547 |
+
)
|
| 548 |
+
|
| 549 |
+
else :
|
| 550 |
+
# Dl data for daily/ weekly freq
|
| 551 |
+
df = get_historic_data(r['SeriesID'],
|
| 552 |
+
fred_key
|
| 553 |
+
)
|
| 554 |
+
df.rename(columns = {'value': r['Name']},
|
| 555 |
+
inplace = True
|
| 556 |
+
)
|
| 557 |
+
|
| 558 |
+
# Indicate report date
|
| 559 |
+
df[r['Name']+'_release'] = 1
|
| 560 |
+
|
| 561 |
+
# end if import
|
| 562 |
+
|
| 563 |
+
# Attach to full dataframe
|
| 564 |
+
dfEcon = dfEcon.join(df, how='outer')
|
| 565 |
+
|
| 566 |
+
# end for iterrows
|
| 567 |
+
#
|
| 568 |
+
|
| 569 |
+
|
| 570 |
+
|
| 571 |
+
|
| 572 |
+
|
| 573 |
+
# Combine & fill numeric vars & export
|
| 574 |
+
# Ffill numeric vars & fillna(0) indicators
|
| 575 |
+
# left append to stock data
|
| 576 |
+
dfData = (pd.DataFrame(dfFinance)
|
| 577 |
+
.join(dfEcon[[x for x in dfEcon.columns
|
| 578 |
+
if len(dfEcon[x].unique())>3]
|
| 579 |
+
].ffill(),
|
| 580 |
+
how='left'
|
| 581 |
+
)
|
| 582 |
+
.join(dfEcon[[x for x in dfEcon.columns
|
| 583 |
+
if len(dfEcon[x].unique())<=3]
|
| 584 |
+
].fillna(0),
|
| 585 |
+
how='left'
|
| 586 |
+
)
|
| 587 |
+
)
|
| 588 |
+
|
| 589 |
+
# Export
|
| 590 |
+
if len(export_path)>0 :
|
| 591 |
+
dfData.to_csv(export_path)
|
| 592 |
+
# end if
|
| 593 |
+
#
|
| 594 |
+
|
| 595 |
+
# end if bDownload
|
| 596 |
+
|
| 597 |
+
return dfData
|
| 598 |
+
#
|
| 599 |
+
|
| 600 |
+
####
|
| 601 |
+
class SP500_Date_Offset(datasets.GeneratorBasedBuilder):
|
| 602 |
+
""" . """
|
| 603 |
+
|
| 604 |
+
_URLS = _URLS
|
| 605 |
+
VERSION = datasets.Version("1.1.0")
|
| 606 |
+
|
| 607 |
+
def _info(self):
|
| 608 |
+
raise ValueError('woops!')
|
| 609 |
+
return datasets.DatasetInfo(
|
| 610 |
+
description=_DESCRIPTION,
|
| 611 |
+
features=datasets.Features(
|
| 612 |
+
{
|
| 613 |
+
"Date": datasets.Value("datetime"),
|
| 614 |
+
"SP500": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 615 |
+
"Fed-Rate": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 616 |
+
"Yield-10Y": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 617 |
+
"Yield-1M": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 618 |
+
"Yield-1Y": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 619 |
+
"Yield-20Y": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 620 |
+
"Yield-2Y": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 621 |
+
"Yield-30Y": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 622 |
+
"Yield-3M": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 623 |
+
"Yield-3Y": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 624 |
+
"Yield-5Y": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 625 |
+
"Yield-6M": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 626 |
+
"Yield-7Y": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 627 |
+
"Bus-Apps": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 628 |
+
"Loans-CI": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 629 |
+
"Loans-Cons": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 630 |
+
"Loans-RE": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 631 |
+
"Unemp-Claims": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 632 |
+
"Con-Sentim": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 633 |
+
"Con-Sentim_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 634 |
+
"Con-Spends": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 635 |
+
"Con-Spends_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 636 |
+
"CPI": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 637 |
+
"CPI_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 638 |
+
"CPI-Core": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 639 |
+
"CPI-Core_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 640 |
+
"CPI-Services": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 641 |
+
"CPI-Services_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 642 |
+
"Home-Sales": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 643 |
+
"Home-Sales_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 644 |
+
"Home-Starts": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 645 |
+
"Home-Starts_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 646 |
+
"Income-Trans": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 647 |
+
"Income-Trans_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 648 |
+
"Indust-Prod": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 649 |
+
"Indust-Prod_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 650 |
+
"Inventory-Sales": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 651 |
+
"Inventory-Sales_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 652 |
+
"Manu-Hours": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 653 |
+
"Manu-Hours_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 654 |
+
"MT-Sales": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 655 |
+
"MT-Sales_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 656 |
+
"NO-Capital": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 657 |
+
"NO-Capital_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 658 |
+
"NO-Consumer": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 659 |
+
"NO-Consumer_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 660 |
+
"NO-Durables": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 661 |
+
"NO-Durables_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 662 |
+
"NO-Unfilled": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 663 |
+
"NO-Unfilled_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 664 |
+
"PCE": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 665 |
+
"PCE_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 666 |
+
"PCE-Core": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 667 |
+
"PCE-Core_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 668 |
+
"PPI-Architect": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 669 |
+
"PPI-Architect_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 670 |
+
"Total-Emp": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 671 |
+
"Total-Emp_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 672 |
+
"Unemploy": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 673 |
+
"Unemploy_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 674 |
+
"Unemp-Weeks": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 675 |
+
"Unemp-Weeks_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 676 |
+
"Delinq-CreditC": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 677 |
+
"Delinq-CreditC_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 678 |
+
"GDP": datasets.Value("float"),
|
| 679 |
+
"GDP_release": datasets.Value("bool"),
|
| 680 |
+
}
|
| 681 |
+
),
|
| 682 |
+
# No default supervised_keys (as we have to pass both question
|
| 683 |
+
# and context as input).
|
| 684 |
+
supervised_keys=None,
|
| 685 |
+
homepage="https://github.com/RileyTheEcon/SP500_Date_Offset",
|
| 686 |
+
citation=_CITATION,
|
| 687 |
+
)
|
| 688 |
+
|
| 689 |
+
def _split_generators(self, dl_manager: datasets.DownloadManager) -> List[datasets.SplitGenerator]:
|
| 690 |
+
urls_to_download = self._URLS
|
| 691 |
+
downloaded_files = dl_manager.download_and_extract(urls_to_download)
|
| 692 |
+
|
| 693 |
+
return [
|
| 694 |
+
datasets.SplitGenerator(name=datasets.Split.VALIDATION, gen_kwargs={"filepath": downloaded_files["dev"]})
|
| 695 |
+
]
|
| 696 |
+
|
| 697 |
+
def _generate_examples(self, filepath):
|
| 698 |
+
"""This function returns the examples in the raw (text) form."""
|
| 699 |
+
logging.info("generating examples from = %s", filepath)
|
| 700 |
+
|
| 701 |
+
|
| 702 |
+
dictArgs = {'key_file_path' : 'fred_api_key.txt', # set local directory
|
| 703 |
+
'fred_source_path' : 'fred.csv', # set location of data dictionary
|
| 704 |
+
'security_sym' : '^GSPC', # set security symbol
|
| 705 |
+
'security_name' : 'SP500', # set security name
|
| 706 |
+
'export_path' : 'SP500_Date_Offset.csv' # set export destination
|
| 707 |
+
}
|
| 708 |
+
|
| 709 |
+
dfData = main(**dictArgs)
|
| 710 |
+
|
| 711 |
+
for i,r in dfData.iteritems() :
|
| 712 |
+
# Features currently used are "context", "question", and "answers".
|
| 713 |
+
# Others are extracted here for the ease of future expansions.
|
| 714 |
+
yield i, {
|
| 715 |
+
'Date': i,
|
| 716 |
+
"SP500": r["SP500"],
|
| 717 |
+
"Fed-Rate": r["Fed-Rate"],
|
| 718 |
+
"Yield-10Y": r["Yield-10Y"],
|
| 719 |
+
"Yield-1M": r["Yield-1M"],
|
| 720 |
+
"Yield-1Y": r["Yield-1Y"],
|
| 721 |
+
"Yield-20Y": r["Yield-20Y"],
|
| 722 |
+
"Yield-2Y": r["Yield-2Y"],
|
| 723 |
+
"Yield-30Y": r["Yield-30Y"],
|
| 724 |
+
"Yield-3M": r["Yield-3M"],
|
| 725 |
+
"Yield-3Y": r["Yield-3Y"],
|
| 726 |
+
"Yield-5Y": r["Yield-5Y"],
|
| 727 |
+
"Yield-6M": r["Yield-6M"],
|
| 728 |
+
"Yield-7Y": r["Yield-7Y"],
|
| 729 |
+
"Bus-Apps": r["Bus-Apps"],
|
| 730 |
+
"Loans-CI": r["Loans-CI"],
|
| 731 |
+
"Loans-Cons": r["Loans-Cons"],
|
| 732 |
+
"Loans-RE": r["Loans-RE"],
|
| 733 |
+
"Unemp-Claims": r["Unemp-Claims"],
|
| 734 |
+
"Con-Sentim": r["Con-Sentim"],
|
| 735 |
+
"Con-Sentim_release": r["Con-Sentim_release"],
|
| 736 |
+
"Con-Spends": r["Con-Spends"],
|
| 737 |
+
"Con-Spends_release": r["Con-Spends_release"],
|
| 738 |
+
"CPI": r["CPI"],
|
| 739 |
+
"CPI_release": r["CPI_release"],
|
| 740 |
+
"CPI-Core": r["CPI-Core"],
|
| 741 |
+
"CPI-Core_release": r["CPI-Core_release"],
|
| 742 |
+
"CPI-Services": r["CPI-Services"],
|
| 743 |
+
"CPI-Services_release": r["CPI-Services_release"],
|
| 744 |
+
"Home-Sales": r["Home-Sales"],
|
| 745 |
+
"Home-Sales_release": r["Home-Sales_release"],
|
| 746 |
+
"Home-Starts": r["Home-Starts"],
|
| 747 |
+
"Home-Starts_release": r["Home-Starts_release"],
|
| 748 |
+
"Income-Trans": r["Income-Trans"],
|
| 749 |
+
"Income-Trans_release": r["Income-Trans_release"],
|
| 750 |
+
"Indust-Prod": r["Indust-Prod"],
|
| 751 |
+
"Indust-Prod_release": r["Indust-Prod_release"],
|
| 752 |
+
"Inventory-Sales": r["Inventory-Sales"],
|
| 753 |
+
"Inventory-Sales_release": r["Inventory-Sales_release"],
|
| 754 |
+
"Manu-Hours": r["Manu-Hours"],
|
| 755 |
+
"Manu-Hours_release": r["Manu-Hours_release"],
|
| 756 |
+
"MT-Sales": r["MT-Sales"],
|
| 757 |
+
"MT-Sales_release": r["MT-Sales_release"],
|
| 758 |
+
"NO-Capital": r["NO-Capital"],
|
| 759 |
+
"NO-Capital_release": r["NO-Capital_release"],
|
| 760 |
+
"NO-Consumer": r["NO-Consumer"],
|
| 761 |
+
"NO-Consumer_release": r["NO-Consumer_release"],
|
| 762 |
+
"NO-Durables": r["NO-Durables"],
|
| 763 |
+
"NO-Durables_release": r["NO-Durables_release"],
|
| 764 |
+
"NO-Unfilled": r["NO-Unfilled"],
|
| 765 |
+
"NO-Unfilled_release": r["NO-Unfilled_release"],
|
| 766 |
+
"PCE": r["PCE"],
|
| 767 |
+
"PCE_release": r["PCE_release"],
|
| 768 |
+
"PCE-Core": r["PCE-Core"],
|
| 769 |
+
"PCE-Core_release": r["PCE-Core_release"],
|
| 770 |
+
"PPI-Architect": r["PPI-Architect"],
|
| 771 |
+
"PPI-Architect_release": r["PPI-Architect_release"],
|
| 772 |
+
"Total-Emp": r["Total-Emp"],
|
| 773 |
+
"Total-Emp_release": r["Total-Emp_release"],
|
| 774 |
+
"Unemploy": r["Unemploy"],
|
| 775 |
+
"Unemploy_release": r["Unemploy_release"],
|
| 776 |
+
"Unemp-Weeks": r["Unemp-Weeks"],
|
| 777 |
+
"Unemp-Weeks_release": r["Unemp-Weeks_release"],
|
| 778 |
+
"Delinq-CreditC": r["Delinq-CreditC"],
|
| 779 |
+
"Delinq-CreditC_release": r["Delinq-CreditC_release"],
|
| 780 |
+
"GDP": r["GDP"],
|
| 781 |
+
"GDP_release": r["GDP_release"],
|
| 782 |
+
}
|
| 783 |
+
# end for
|
| 784 |
+
# end def
|
| 785 |
+
# end class
|
| 786 |
+
# =========================================================================== #
|
| 787 |
+
|
| 788 |
+
|
| 789 |
+
|
| 790 |
+
|
| 791 |
+
|
| 792 |
+
# =================================== MAIN ================================== #
|
| 793 |
+
if __name__ == "__main__" :
|
| 794 |
+
print(__doc__)
|
| 795 |
+
main(**dictArgs)
|
| 796 |
+
# endif
|
| 797 |
+
# =========================================================================== #
|
| 798 |
+
|
| 799 |
+
|
| 800 |
+
|
| 801 |
+
''' DEBUG
|
| 802 |
+
key_file_path = dictArgs['key_file_path']
|
| 803 |
+
fred_source_path = dictArgs['fred_source_path']
|
| 804 |
+
security_sym = dictArgs['security_sym']
|
| 805 |
+
security_name = dictArgs['security_name']
|
| 806 |
+
export_path = dictArgs['export_path']
|
| 807 |
+
'''
|
| 808 |
+
|
| 809 |
+
|
| 810 |
+
|
| 811 |
+
|
| 812 |
+
|