roseking's picture
Add lean source and binary files (part 121)
f61e547 verified
Raw History Blame Contribute Delete
17.7 kB
import OAI.Probability.DirectionalWalk.PosteriorMax
namespace OAI
open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter Preorder
open scoped ENNReal BigOperators Topology
namespace DirectionalZeroOne
open scoped Classical
noncomputable def posteriorSup {Ω ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] (w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(ω : Ω) : ℝ := ⨆ n : ℕ, posteriorMax w n ω
lemma posteriorSup_bounds {Ω ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] (w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hpos : ∀ e i ω, 0 ≤ w e i ω) (hsum : ∀ i ω, ∑ e, w e i ω ≤ 1) (ω : Ω) :
0 ≤ posteriorSup w ω ∧ posteriorSup w ω ≤ Fintype.card ι := by
have hb : BddAbove (Set.range (fun n => posteriorMax w n ω)) :=
⟨Fintype.card ι,by rintro _ ⟨n,rfl⟩; exact posteriorMax_le_card w hpos hsum n ω⟩
exact ⟨(posteriorMax_nonneg w hpos 0 ω).trans (le_ciSup hb 0),
ciSup_le (fun n => posteriorMax_le_card w hpos hsum n ω)⟩
lemma posteriorMax_tendsto {Ω ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] (w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hpos : ∀ e i ω, 0 ≤ w e i ω) (hsum : ∀ i ω, ∑ e, w e i ω ≤ 1) (ω : Ω) :
Tendsto (fun n => posteriorMax w n ω) atTop (𝓝 (posteriorSup w ω)) := by
exact tendsto_atTop_ciSup (posteriorMax_mono w ω)
⟨Fintype.card ι,by rintro _ ⟨n,rfl⟩; exact posteriorMax_le_card w hpos hsum n ω⟩
lemma measurable_posteriorSup {Ω ι : Type*} [m : MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype ι]
(μ : Measure Ω) (ℱ : Filtration ℕ m) (w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hw : ∀ e, Martingale (w e) ℱ μ) : Measurable (posteriorSup w) :=
Measurable.iSup (fun n => (posteriorMax_adapted μ ℱ w hw n).mono (ℱ.le n) le_rfl)
lemma posteriorSup_exponential {Ω ι : Type*} [m : MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype ι]
(μ : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure μ] (ℱ : Filtration ℕ m)
(w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ) (hw : ∀ e, Martingale (w e) ℱ μ)
(hpos : ∀ e i ω, 0 ≤ w e i ω) (hsum : ∀ i ω, ∑ e, w e i ω ≤ 1)
(L : ℕ) (hL : (Fintype.card ι : ℝ)*(1/2 : ℝ)^L ≤ 1) :
(∫ ω, Real.exp (Real.log (3/2) / (2*(L+1)+1) * posteriorSup w ω) ∂μ) ≤ 12 := by
let c : ℝ := Real.log (3/2) / (2*(L+1)+1)
have hc : 0 ≤ c := div_nonneg (Real.log_nonneg (by norm_num)) (by positivity)
have hM (n : ℕ) : Measurable (posteriorMax w n) := (posteriorMax_adapted μ ℱ w hw n).mono (ℱ.le n) le_rfl
have hI (n : ℕ) : Integrable (fun ω => Real.exp (c*posteriorMax w n ω)) μ :=
integrable_exp_of_bound μ _ (hM n) (Fintype.card ι) c (posteriorMax_le_card w hpos hsum n) hc
have hS : Integrable (fun ω => Real.exp (c*posteriorSup w ω)) μ :=
integrable_exp_of_bound μ _ (measurable_posteriorSup μ ℱ w hw) (Fintype.card ι) c
(fun ω => (posteriorSup_bounds w hpos hsum ω).2) hc
have ht := integral_tendsto_of_tendsto_of_monotone hI hS
(Filter.Eventually.of_forall (fun ω n N hnN => Real.exp_le_exp.mpr
(mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left (posteriorMax_mono w ω hnN) hc)))
(Filter.Eventually.of_forall (fun ω => Real.continuous_exp.continuousAt.tendsto.comp
((posteriorMax_tendsto w hpos hsum ω).const_mul c)))
apply le_of_tendsto ht
filter_upwards [] with n
exact geometric_tail_exponential μ (posteriorMax w n) (hM n) (Fintype.card ι)
(posteriorMax_le_card w hpos hsum n) (2*(L+1)+1) (by have := Nat.cast_nonneg (α := ℝ) L; linarith)
(posteriorMax_geometric_tail μ ℱ w hw hpos hsum L hL n)
noncomputable def goodPosteriorSet {Ω ι : Type*} [Fintype ι]
(w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ) (n : ℕ) : Set Ω := {ω | (∀ e, 0 ≤ w e n ω) ∧ ∑ e, w e n ω ≤ 1}
noncomputable def clippedPosterior {Ω ι : Type*} [Fintype ι]
(w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ) (e : ι) (n : ℕ) : Ω → ℝ := (goodPosteriorSet w n).indicator (w e n)
lemma measurableSet_goodPosterior {Ω ι : Type*} [m : MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype ι]
(μ : Measure Ω) (ℱ : Filtration ℕ m) (w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hw : ∀ e, Martingale (w e) ℱ μ) (n : ℕ) : MeasurableSet[ℱ n] (goodPosteriorSet w n) := by
let : MeasurableSpace Ω := ℱ n
unfold goodPosteriorSet
rw [Set.ofPred_and,Set.ofPred_forall]
apply MeasurableSet.inter
·
exact MeasurableSet.iInter (fun e => measurableSet_le measurable_const ((hw e).stronglyMeasurable n).measurable)
· exact measurableSet_le (Finset.measurable_sum _ (fun e _ => ((hw e).stronglyMeasurable n).measurable)) measurable_const
lemma clippedPosterior_bounds {Ω ι : Type*} [Fintype ι] (w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ) :
(∀ e n ω, 0 ≤ clippedPosterior w e n ω) ∧ (∀ n ω, ∑ e, clippedPosterior w e n ω ≤ 1) := by
constructor
· intro e n ω
by_cases hω : ω ∈ goodPosteriorSet w n
· simpa only [clippedPosterior,Set.indicator_of_mem hω] using hω.1 e
· simp only [clippedPosterior,Set.indicator_of_notMem hω,le_refl]
· intro n ω
by_cases hω : ω ∈ goodPosteriorSet w n
· simpa only [clippedPosterior,Set.indicator_of_mem hω] using hω.2
· simp only [clippedPosterior,Set.indicator_of_notMem hω,Finset.sum_const_zero]; norm_num
lemma clippedPosterior_ae_eq {Ω ι : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype ι]
(μ : Measure Ω) (w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hpos : ∀ e n, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, 0 ≤ w e n ω) (hsum : ∀ n, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∑ e, w e n ω ≤ 1)
(e : ι) (n : ℕ) : w e n =ᵐ[μ] clippedPosterior w e n := by
filter_upwards [(ae_all_iff.mpr (fun e => hpos e n)),hsum n] with ω hω hsumω
exact (Set.indicator_of_mem (show ω ∈ goodPosteriorSet w n from ⟨hω,hsumω⟩) _).symm
lemma clippedPosterior_martingale {Ω ι : Type*} [m : MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype ι]
(μ : Measure Ω) (ℱ : Filtration ℕ m) (w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hw : ∀ e, Martingale (w e) ℱ μ)
(hpos : ∀ e n, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, 0 ≤ w e n ω) (hsum : ∀ n, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∑ e, w e n ω ≤ 1) (e : ι) :
Martingale (clippedPosterior w e) ℱ μ := by
apply (hw e).congr
· intro n
exact ((hw e).stronglyMeasurable n).indicator (measurableSet_goodPosterior μ ℱ w hw n)
· exact clippedPosterior_ae_eq μ w hpos hsum e
lemma posteriorSup_congr_ae {Ω ι : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype ι]
(μ : Measure Ω) (w v : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ) (h : ∀ e n, w e n =ᵐ[μ] v e n) :
posteriorSup w =ᵐ[μ] posteriorSup v := by
filter_upwards [ae_all_iff.mpr (fun e => ae_all_iff.mpr (h e))] with ω hω
unfold posteriorSup
congr 1
funext n
apply Finset.sum_congr rfl
intro e _
unfold runningMax
congr 1
funext i
exact hω e i
noncomputable def posteriorLevel (m : ℕ) : ℕ := ⌈Real.log (m+1) / Real.log 2⌉₊
lemma posteriorLevel_dyadic (m : ℕ) : (m : ℝ) * (1/2 : ℝ)^(posteriorLevel m) ≤ 1 := by
have h2 : 0 < Real.log 2 := Real.log_pos (by norm_num)
have hceil := Nat.le_ceil (Real.log (m+1) / Real.log 2)
have hlog : Real.log (m+1) ≤ (posteriorLevel m : ℝ) * Real.log 2 :=
(div_le_iff₀ h2).mp hceil
have he := Real.exp_le_exp.mpr hlog
rw [Real.exp_log (by positivity),Real.exp_nat_mul,Real.exp_log (by norm_num)] at he
have hpow : (2 : ℝ)^posteriorLevel m * (1/2 : ℝ)^posteriorLevel m = 1 := by
rw [← mul_pow]; norm_num
have hh := mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_right he (by positivity : 0 ≤ (1/2 : ℝ)^posteriorLevel m)
rw [hpow] at hh
have hp : 0 ≤ (1/2 : ℝ)^posteriorLevel m := by positivity
nlinarith
lemma posteriorLevel_scale (m : ℕ) (hm : 1 ≤ m) :
2*((posteriorLevel m : ℝ)+1)+1 ≤ 7 * Real.log (m+1) / Real.log 2 := by
have h2 : 0 < Real.log 2 := Real.log_pos (by norm_num)
have hB : Real.log 2 ≤ Real.log (m+1) :=
Real.log_le_log (by norm_num) (by exact_mod_cast (show 2 ≤ m+1 by omega))
have hq : 0 ≤ Real.log (m+1) / Real.log 2 := div_nonneg (h2.le.trans hB) h2.le
have hceil : (posteriorLevel m : ℝ) < Real.log (m+1)/Real.log 2 + 1 := Nat.ceil_lt_add_one hq
have hh : 1 ≤ Real.log (m+1)/Real.log 2 := (le_div_iff₀ h2).mpr (by simpa using hB)
have he : 7*Real.log (m+1)/Real.log 2 = 7*(Real.log (m+1)/Real.log 2) := by ring
rw [he]
linarith
noncomputable def posteriorExponent : ℝ := Real.log (3/2) * Real.log 2 / 7
lemma posteriorExponent_pos : 0 < posteriorExponent := by
exact div_pos (mul_pos (Real.log_pos (by norm_num)) (Real.log_pos (by norm_num))) (by norm_num)
lemma posteriorExponent_le (m : ℕ) (hm : 1 ≤ m) :
posteriorExponent / Real.log (m+1) ≤ Real.log (3/2) / (2*((posteriorLevel m : ℝ)+1)+1) := by
have h2 : 0 < Real.log 2 := Real.log_pos (by norm_num)
have hB : 0 < Real.log (m+1) := Real.log_pos (by exact_mod_cast (show 1 < m+1 by omega))
have hb : 0 < 2*((posteriorLevel m : ℝ)+1)+1 := by positivity
have hscale := (le_div_iff₀ h2).mp (posteriorLevel_scale m hm)
apply (div_le_div_iff₀ hB hb).mpr
unfold posteriorExponent
have hl : 0 ≤ Real.log (3/2) := Real.log_nonneg (by norm_num)
have hh := mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left hscale hl
nlinarith
lemma setIntegral_entropy_of_exp {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] (μ : Measure Ω)
[IsProbabilityMeasure μ] (X : Ω → ℝ) (hX : Integrable X μ) (c : ℝ) (hc : 0 < c)
(hE : Integrable (fun ω => Real.exp (c*X ω)) μ)
(hbound : (∫ ω, Real.exp (c*X ω) ∂μ) ≤ 12) (V : Set Ω) :
(∫ ω in V, X ω ∂μ) ≤ (12/c) * μ.real V * (1-Real.log (μ.real V)) := by
let p := μ.real V
by_cases hp : p = 0
· change μ.real V = 0 at hp
have hz : μ V = 0 := (measureReal_eq_zero_iff (by finiteness)).mp hp
simp only [Measure.restrict_eq_zero.mpr hz,integral_zero_measure,hp,mul_zero,zero_mul,le_refl]
· have hp0 : 0 < p := lt_of_le_of_ne measureReal_nonneg (Ne.symm hp)
have hp1 : p ≤ 1 := measureReal_le_one
have hlog : Real.log p ≤ 0 := Real.log_nonpos hp0.le hp1
have hpoint (ω : Ω) : c*X ω ≤ p*Real.exp (c*X ω) - Real.log p := by
have h := Real.add_one_le_exp (c*X ω + Real.log p)
rw [Real.exp_add,Real.exp_log hp0] at h
nlinarith
have hi : (∫ ω in V, c*X ω ∂μ) ≤ ∫ ω in V, (p*Real.exp (c*X ω)-Real.log p) ∂μ :=
integral_mono (hX.restrict.const_mul c)
((hE.restrict.const_mul p).sub (integrable_const (Real.log p))) hpoint
rw [integral_const_mul,integral_sub (hE.restrict.const_mul p) (integrable_const _),
integral_const_mul,integral_const,measureReal_restrict_apply_univ,smul_eq_mul] at hi
have he : (∫ ω in V, Real.exp (c*X ω) ∂μ) ≤ 12 :=
(setIntegral_le_integral hE (Filter.Eventually.of_forall (fun ω => Real.exp_nonneg _))).trans hbound
have hcore : c * (∫ ω in V, X ω ∂μ) ≤ 12*p*(1-Real.log p) := by
change c * (∫ ω in V, X ω ∂μ) ≤ _ at hi
have hh := mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left he hp0.le
have hl := mul_nonpos_of_nonneg_of_nonpos hp0.le hlog
dsimp [p] at hi ⊢
dsimp [p] at hh hl
nlinarith
calc
_ ≤ 12*p*(1-Real.log p)/c := (le_div_iff₀ hc).mpr (by simpa [mul_comm] using hcore)
_ = _ := by dsimp [p]; ring
lemma posteriorSup_exponential_log {Ω ι : Type*} [m : MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype ι] [Nonempty ι]
(μ : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure μ] (ℱ : Filtration ℕ m)
(w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ) (hw : ∀ e, Martingale (w e) ℱ μ)
(hpos : ∀ e i ω, 0 ≤ w e i ω) (hsum : ∀ i ω, ∑ e, w e i ω ≤ 1) :
(∫ ω, Real.exp (posteriorExponent / Real.log (Fintype.card ι+1) * posteriorSup w ω) ∂μ) ≤ 12 := by
have hm : 1 ≤ Fintype.card ι := Fintype.card_pos_iff.mpr ‹Nonempty ι›
have hB : 0 < Real.log (Fintype.card ι+1) := Real.log_pos (by exact_mod_cast (show 1 < Fintype.card ι+1 by omega))
let c := posteriorExponent / Real.log (Fintype.card ι+1)
let c' := Real.log (3/2) / (2*((posteriorLevel (Fintype.card ι) : ℝ)+1)+1)
have hle : c ≤ c' := posteriorExponent_le _ hm
have hc : 0 ≤ c := (div_pos posteriorExponent_pos hB).le
have hc' : 0 ≤ c' := hc.trans hle
have hmeas := measurable_posteriorSup μ ℱ w hw
have hb := fun ω => (posteriorSup_bounds w hpos hsum ω).2
have hi := integral_mono (integrable_exp_of_bound μ _ hmeas _ c hb hc)
(integrable_exp_of_bound μ _ hmeas _ c' hb hc') (show ∀ ω, Real.exp (c*posteriorSup w ω) ≤ Real.exp (c'*posteriorSup w ω) from by
intro ω
exact Real.exp_le_exp.mpr (mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_right hle (posteriorSup_bounds w hpos hsum ω).1))
exact hi.trans (posteriorSup_exponential μ ℱ w hw hpos hsum _ (posteriorLevel_dyadic _))
lemma posteriorSup_exponential_log_ae {Ω ι : Type*} [m : MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype ι] [Nonempty ι]
(μ : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure μ] (ℱ : Filtration ℕ m)
(w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ) (hw : ∀ e, Martingale (w e) ℱ μ)
(hpos : ∀ e i, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, 0 ≤ w e i ω) (hsum : ∀ i, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∑ e, w e i ω ≤ 1) :
(∫ ω, Real.exp (posteriorExponent / Real.log (Fintype.card ι+1) * posteriorSup w ω) ∂μ) ≤ 12 := by
have he := posteriorSup_congr_ae μ w (clippedPosterior w) (clippedPosterior_ae_eq μ w hpos hsum)
have hi : (∫ ω, Real.exp (posteriorExponent / Real.log (Fintype.card ι+1) * posteriorSup w ω) ∂μ) =
∫ ω, Real.exp (posteriorExponent / Real.log (Fintype.card ι+1) * posteriorSup (clippedPosterior w) ω) ∂μ := by
apply integral_congr_ae
filter_upwards [he] with ω hω
rw [hω]
rw [hi]
exact posteriorSup_exponential_log μ ℱ (clippedPosterior w)
(clippedPosterior_martingale μ ℱ w hw hpos hsum)
(clippedPosterior_bounds w).1 (clippedPosterior_bounds w).2
lemma integrable_posteriorSup_ae {Ω ι : Type*} [m : MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype ι]
(μ : Measure Ω) [IsFiniteMeasure μ] (ℱ : Filtration ℕ m)
(w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ) (hw : ∀ e, Martingale (w e) ℱ μ)
(hpos : ∀ e i, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, 0 ≤ w e i ω) (hsum : ∀ i, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∑ e, w e i ω ≤ 1) :
Integrable (posteriorSup w) μ := by
have he := posteriorSup_congr_ae μ w (clippedPosterior w) (clippedPosterior_ae_eq μ w hpos hsum)
apply (integrable_const (Fintype.card ι : ℝ)).mono' (measurable_posteriorSup μ ℱ w hw).aestronglyMeasurable
filter_upwards [he] with ω hω
rw [hω,Real.norm_eq_abs,abs_of_nonneg (posteriorSup_bounds _ (clippedPosterior_bounds w).1 (clippedPosterior_bounds w).2 ω).1]
exact (posteriorSup_bounds _ (clippedPosterior_bounds w).1 (clippedPosterior_bounds w).2 ω).2
lemma integrable_posteriorSup_exp_ae {Ω ι : Type*} [m : MeasurableSpace Ω] [Fintype ι]
(μ : Measure Ω) [IsFiniteMeasure μ] (ℱ : Filtration ℕ m)
(w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ) (hw : ∀ e, Martingale (w e) ℱ μ)
(hpos : ∀ e i, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, 0 ≤ w e i ω) (hsum : ∀ i, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∑ e, w e i ω ≤ 1)
(c : ℝ) (hc : 0 ≤ c) : Integrable (fun ω => Real.exp (c * posteriorSup w ω)) μ := by
have he := posteriorSup_congr_ae μ w (clippedPosterior w) (clippedPosterior_ae_eq μ w hpos hsum)
have hm := measurable_posteriorSup μ ℱ w hw
apply (integrable_const (Real.exp (c*Fintype.card ι))).mono' (hm.const_mul c).exp.aestronglyMeasurable
filter_upwards [he] with ω hω
rw [Real.norm_eq_abs,abs_of_pos (Real.exp_pos _),hω]
exact Real.exp_le_exp.mpr (mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left
(posteriorSup_bounds _ (clippedPosterior_bounds w).1 (clippedPosterior_bounds w).2 ω).2 hc)
lemma posteriorSup_joint_event_weight {Ω Ξ ι : Type*} [m : MeasurableSpace Ω] [MeasurableSpace Ξ]
[Fintype ι] [Nonempty ι] (μ : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure μ]
(ν : Measure Ξ) [IsProbabilityMeasure ν] (π : Ξ → Ω) (hπ : MeasurePreserving π ν μ)
(ℱ : Filtration ℕ m) (w : ι → ℕ → Ω → ℝ) (hw : ∀ e, Martingale (w e) ℱ μ)
(hpos : ∀ e i, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, 0 ≤ w e i ω) (hsum : ∀ i, ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∑ e, w e i ω ≤ 1)
(V : Set Ξ) :
(∫ ξ in V, posteriorSup w (π ξ) ∂ν) ≤
(12/posteriorExponent) * Real.log (Fintype.card ι+1) * ν.real V * (1-Real.log (ν.real V)) := by
let c := posteriorExponent / Real.log (Fintype.card ι+1)
have hm : 1 ≤ Fintype.card ι := Fintype.card_pos_iff.mpr ‹Nonempty ι›
have hB : 0 < Real.log (Fintype.card ι+1) := Real.log_pos (by exact_mod_cast (show 1 < Fintype.card ι+1 by omega))
have hc : 0 < c := div_pos posteriorExponent_pos hB
have hXe := integrable_posteriorSup_exp_ae μ ℱ w hw hpos hsum c hc.le
have hXI := integrable_posteriorSup_ae μ ℱ w hw hpos hsum
have hExp : (∫ ξ, Real.exp (c * posteriorSup w (π ξ)) ∂ν) ≤ 12 := by
have hi : (∫ ξ, Real.exp (c * posteriorSup w (π ξ)) ∂ν) =
∫ ω, Real.exp (c * posteriorSup w ω) ∂μ := by
rw [← hπ.map_eq]
exact (integral_map_of_stronglyMeasurable hπ.measurable
(((measurable_posteriorSup μ ℱ w hw).const_mul c).exp.stronglyMeasurable)).symm
rw [hi]
exact posteriorSup_exponential_log_ae μ ℱ w hw hpos hsum
have hi := setIntegral_entropy_of_exp ν (fun ξ => posteriorSup w (π ξ))
(hπ.integrable_comp_of_integrable hXI) c hc (hπ.integrable_comp_of_integrable hXe) hExp V
have hscale : 12/c = (12/posteriorExponent) * Real.log (Fintype.card ι+1) := by
dsimp [c]
field_simp
simpa only [hscale] using hi
lemma ae_atom_pos {α : Type*} [Countable α] [MeasurableSpace α] [MeasurableSingletonClass α]
(μ : Measure α) : ∀ᵐ x ∂μ, μ {x} ≠ 0 := by
simp only [ae_iff]
have h : {x | ¬ μ {x} ≠ 0} = ⋃ x : {x // μ {x} = 0}, ({x.val} : Set α) := by
ext x
simp
rw [h]
exact measure_iUnion_null fun x => x.property
end DirectionalZeroOne
end OAI