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import OAI.Probability.FreeIsing.Brownian.Observation
import OAI.Probability.FreeIsing.Posterior.PlantedBridgeInfinite
namespace OAI
noncomputable section
open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory
open scoped NNReal
namespace Problem367
def arrayNaturalFiltration {ι Ω : Type*} [mΩ : MeasurableSpace Ω]
(X : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (hm : ∀ i t, Measurable (X i t)) :
Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ where
seq t := ⨆ i, Filtration.natural (X i) (fun t => (hm i t).stronglyMeasurable) t
mono' _ _ hst := iSup_mono fun i => (Filtration.natural (X i)
(fun t => (hm i t).stronglyMeasurable)).mono hst
le' t := iSup_le fun i => (Filtration.natural (X i)
(fun t => (hm i t).stronglyMeasurable)).le t
lemma arrayNaturalFiltration_eq_comap {ι Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(X : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (hm : ∀ i t, Measurable (X i t)) (t : ℝ≥0) :
arrayNaturalFiltration X hm t =
MeasurableSpace.comap (fun ω i (s : Set.Iic t) => X i s ω) inferInstance := by
simp only [arrayNaturalFiltration, MeasurableSpace.comap_process_pi,
Filtration.natural_eq_comap]
lemma arrayNaturalFiltration_stronglyAdapted {ι Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(X : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (hm : ∀ i t, Measurable (X i t)) (i : ι) :
StronglyAdapted (arrayNaturalFiltration X hm) (X i) := by
intro t
exact (Filtration.stronglyAdapted_natural
(fun t => (hm i t).stronglyMeasurable) t).mono (show
Filtration.natural (X i) (fun t => (hm i t).stronglyMeasurable) t ≤
⨆ j, Filtration.natural (X j) (fun t => (hm j t).stronglyMeasurable) t from
le_iSup (fun j : ι => Filtration.natural (X j)
(fun t => (hm j t).stronglyMeasurable) t) i)
lemma arrayNaturalFiltration_le {ι Ω : Type*} [mΩ : MeasurableSpace Ω]
(X : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (hm : ∀ i t, Measurable (X i t))
{F : Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ} (had : ∀ i, StronglyAdapted F (X i)) :
arrayNaturalFiltration X hm ≤ F := by
intro t
exact iSup_le fun i => naturalFiltration_le_of_stronglyAdapted
(fun t => (hm i t).stronglyMeasurable) (had i) t
def signalArrayFiltration {ι S Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace S] [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(B : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (hmB : ∀ i t, Measurable (B i t)) :
Filtration ℝ≥0 (inferInstance : MeasurableSpace (S × (ι → Ω))) :=
Filtration.const ℝ≥0 (MeasurableSpace.comap Prod.fst inferInstance)
measurable_fst.comap_le ⊔
arrayNaturalFiltration (fun i t (q : S × (ι → Ω)) => B i t (q.2 i))
(fun i t => (hmB i t).comp ((measurable_pi_apply i).comp measurable_snd))
lemma signalArrayFiltration_eq_comap {ι S Ω : Type*}
[MeasurableSpace S] [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(B : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (hmB : ∀ i t, Measurable (B i t)) (t : ℝ≥0) :
signalArrayFiltration (S := S) B hmB t =
MeasurableSpace.comap
(fun q : S × (ι → Ω) => (q.1, fun i (s : Set.Iic t) => B i s (q.2 i)))
inferInstance := by
change MeasurableSpace.comap Prod.fst inferInstance ⊔
arrayNaturalFiltration _ _ t = _
rw [arrayNaturalFiltration_eq_comap]
exact (MeasurableSpace.comap_prodMk Prod.fst
(fun q : S × (ι → Ω) => fun i (s : Set.Iic t) => B i s (q.2 i))).symm
theorem planted_array_increments_indep_signal_past
{ι S Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace S] [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(ν : Measure S) (μ : ι → Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure ν]
{B : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} (hB : ∀ i, IsPreBrownianReal (B i) (μ i))
(hmB : ∀ i t, Measurable (B i t)) {s t : ℝ≥0} (hst : s ≤ t) :
IndepFun
(fun q : S × (ι → Ω) => fun i => B i t (q.2 i) - B i s (q.2 i))
(fun q : S × (ι → Ω) => (q.1, fun i (u : Set.Iic s) => B i u (q.2 i)))
(ν.prod (Measure.infinitePi μ)) := by
have (i : ι) : IsProbabilityMeasure (μ i) :=
(hB i).isGaussianProcess.isProbabilityMeasure
have hmPast (i : ι) : Measurable (fun ω (u : Set.Iic s) => B i u ω) :=
Measurable.of_eval fun u => hmB i u
have hmInc (i : ι) : Measurable (fun ω => B i t ω - B i s ω) :=
(hmB i t).sub (hmB i s)
have hind := indepFun_infinitePi_of_coordinate_indepFun μ hmPast hmInc
(fun i => (preBrownian_increment_indep_past (hB i) hst).symm)
exact (indepFun_prod_left_of_indepFun ν (Measure.infinitePi μ)
(Measurable.of_eval fun i => (hmPast i).comp (measurable_pi_apply i))
(Measurable.of_eval fun i => (hmInc i).comp (measurable_pi_apply i)) hind).symm
lemma planted_noise_coordinate_measurePreserving
{ι S Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace S] [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(ν : Measure S) (μ : ι → Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure ν]
[∀ i, IsProbabilityMeasure (μ i)] (i : ι) :
MeasurePreserving (fun q : S × (ι → Ω) => q.2 i)
(ν.prod (Measure.infinitePi μ)) (μ i) := by
refine ⟨(measurable_pi_apply i).comp measurable_snd, ?_⟩
change Measure.map ((fun w : ι → Ω => w i) ∘ Prod.snd) _ = _
rw [← Measure.map_map (measurable_pi_apply i) measurable_snd]
simp only [Measure.map_snd_prod, measure_univ, one_smul]
exact Measure.infinitePi_map_eval μ i
theorem preBrownian_martingale_signalArrayFiltration
{ι S Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace S] [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(ν : Measure S) (μ : ι → Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure ν]
{B : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} (hB : ∀ i, IsPreBrownianReal (B i) (μ i))
(hmB : ∀ i t, Measurable (B i t)) (i : ι) :
Martingale (fun t (q : S × (ι → Ω)) => B i t (q.2 i))
(signalArrayFiltration B hmB) (ν.prod (Measure.infinitePi μ)) := by
have (j : ι) : IsProbabilityMeasure (μ j) :=
(hB j).isGaussianProcess.isProbabilityMeasure
let P := ν.prod (Measure.infinitePi μ)
let F := signalArrayFiltration (S := S) B hmB
have hproj := planted_noise_coordinate_measurePreserving ν μ i
have hint (t : ℝ≥0) : Integrable (fun q : S × (ι → Ω) => B i t (q.2 i)) P :=
hproj.integrable_comp_of_integrable ((hB i).integrable_eval t)
have had : StronglyAdapted F (fun t (q : S × (ι → Ω)) => B i t (q.2 i)) := by
intro t
exact (arrayNaturalFiltration_stronglyAdapted
(fun j u (q : S × (ι → Ω)) => B j u (q.2 j))
(fun j u => (hmB j u).comp ((measurable_pi_apply j).comp measurable_snd)) i t).mono
le_sup_right
apply martingale_of_conditional_increment_zero had hint
intro s t hst
have hind := (planted_array_increments_indep_signal_past ν μ hB hmB hst).comp
(measurable_pi_apply i) measurable_id
have hn := signalArrayFiltration_eq_comap (S := S) B hmB s
have hcond : P[(fun q : S × (ι → Ω) => B i t (q.2 i) - B i s (q.2 i)) | F s] =ᵐ[P]
fun _ => ∫ q : S × (ι → Ω), B i t (q.2 i) - B i s (q.2 i) ∂P := by
change P[_ | signalArrayFiltration B hmB s] =ᵐ[P] _
rw [hn]
exact condExp_indep_eq
(((hmB i t).sub (hmB i s)).comp hproj.measurable).comap_le
(hn ▸ F.le s) (measurable_iff_comap_le.mpr le_rfl).stronglyMeasurable hind
have hzero : (∫ q : S × (ι → Ω), B i t (q.2 i) - B i s (q.2 i) ∂P) = 0 := by
have hi := integral_map (μ := P) hproj.measurable.aemeasurable
(((hmB i t).sub (hmB i s)).aestronglyMeasurable)
rw [hproj.map_eq] at hi
simp only [Pi.sub_apply] at hi
rw [← hi, integral_sub ((hB i).integrable_eval t) ((hB i).integrable_eval s),
(hB i).integral_eval, (hB i).integral_eval, sub_self]
simpa only [hzero, Pi.sub_def] using hcond
def plantedArrayObservation {ι S Ω : Type*}
(B : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (σ : S → ι → ℝ)
(i : ι) (t : ℝ≥0) (q : S × (ι → Ω)) : ℝ :=
B i t (q.2 i) + (t : ℝ) * σ q.1 i
lemma plantedArrayObservation_measurable {ι S Ω : Type*}
[MeasurableSpace S] [MeasurableSpace Ω]
{B : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} (hmB : ∀ i t, Measurable (B i t))
{σ : S → ι → ℝ} (hσ : Measurable σ) (i : ι) (t : ℝ≥0) :
Measurable (plantedArrayObservation B σ i t) :=
((hmB i t).comp ((measurable_pi_apply i).comp measurable_snd)).add
((((measurable_pi_apply i).comp hσ).comp measurable_fst).const_mul _)
def arrayObservationFiltration {ι S Ω : Type*}
[MeasurableSpace S] [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(B : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (hmB : ∀ i t, Measurable (B i t))
(σ : S → ι → ℝ) (hσ : Measurable σ) :
Filtration ℝ≥0 (inferInstance : MeasurableSpace (S × (ι → Ω))) :=
arrayNaturalFiltration (plantedArrayObservation B σ)
(plantedArrayObservation_measurable hmB hσ)
lemma arrayObservationFiltration_le_signalArrayFiltration {ι S Ω : Type*}
[MeasurableSpace S] [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(B : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ) (hmB : ∀ i t, Measurable (B i t))
(σ : S → ι → ℝ) (hσ : Measurable σ) :
arrayObservationFiltration B hmB σ hσ ≤ signalArrayFiltration B hmB := by
apply arrayNaturalFiltration_le
intro i t
have hnoise : StronglyMeasurable[signalArrayFiltration (S := S) B hmB t]
(fun q : S × (ι → Ω) => B i t (q.2 i)) :=
(arrayNaturalFiltration_stronglyAdapted
(fun j u (q : S × (ι → Ω)) => B j u (q.2 j))
(fun j u => (hmB j u).comp ((measurable_pi_apply j).comp measurable_snd)) i t).mono
le_sup_right
have hsignal : StronglyMeasurable[MeasurableSpace.comap
(Prod.fst : S × (ι → Ω) → S) inferInstance]
(fun q : S × (ι → Ω) => σ q.1 i) :=
(((measurable_pi_apply i).comp hσ).comp (comap_measurable Prod.fst)).stronglyMeasurable
exact hnoise.add (stronglyMeasurable_const.mul (hsignal.mono le_sup_left))
theorem preBrownian_array_observation_innovation_martingale
{ι S Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace S] [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(ν : Measure S) (μ : ι → Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure ν]
{B : ι → ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} (hB : ∀ i, IsPreBrownianReal (B i) (μ i))
(hmB : ∀ i t, Measurable (B i t))
{σ : S → ι → ℝ} (hσ : Measurable σ) (i : ι)
(hσint : Integrable (fun s => σ s i) ν)
{m : ℝ≥0 → S × (ι → Ω) → ℝ}
(hmAd : StronglyAdapted (arrayObservationFiltration B hmB σ hσ) m)
(hposterior : ∀ t, m t =ᵐ[ν.prod (Measure.infinitePi μ)]
(ν.prod (Measure.infinitePi μ))[(fun q : S × (ι → Ω) => σ q.1 i) |
arrayObservationFiltration B hmB σ hσ t])
(hAad : StronglyAdapted (arrayObservationFiltration B hmB σ hσ)
(nnrealTimePrimitive m))
(hInt : ∀ s t : ℝ≥0, s ≤ t →
Integrable (fun p : ℝ × (S × (ι → Ω)) => m p.1.toNNReal p.2)
((volume.restrict (Set.Ioc (s : ℝ) (t : ℝ))).prod
(ν.prod (Measure.infinitePi μ)))) :
Martingale
(fun t q => plantedArrayObservation B σ i t q - nnrealTimePrimitive m t q)
(arrayObservationFiltration B hmB σ hσ) (ν.prod (Measure.infinitePi μ)) := by
have (j : ι) : IsProbabilityMeasure (μ j) :=
(hB j).isGaussianProcess.isProbabilityMeasure
exact compensated_observation_martingale_of_posterior_version
(preBrownian_martingale_signalArrayFiltration ν μ hB hmB i)
(arrayObservationFiltration_le_signalArrayFiltration B hmB σ hσ)
(hσint.comp_fst (Measure.infinitePi μ))
(arrayNaturalFiltration_stronglyAdapted (plantedArrayObservation B σ)
(plantedArrayObservation_measurable hmB hσ) i)
hmAd hposterior hAad hInt
end Problem367
end
end OAI