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| import Mathlib | |
| import OAI.Probability.FreeIsing.Estimates.RoundedStoppingTimes | |
| namespace OAI | |
| noncomputable section | |
| open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter Set | |
| open scoped NNReal Topology | |
| namespace Problem367.ContinuousOptionalStopping | |
| theorem countable_range_const {Ω α : Type*} (a : α) : | |
| (range (fun _ : Ω => a)).Countable := by | |
| apply (countable_singleton a).mono | |
| rintro x ⟨ω, rfl⟩ | |
| exact mem_singleton a | |
| theorem countable_range_min {Ω α : Type*} [LinearOrder α] {f g : Ω → α} | |
| (hf : (range f).Countable) (hg : (range g).Countable) : | |
| (range (fun ω => min (f ω) (g ω))).Countable := by | |
| apply (hf.union hg).mono | |
| rintro x ⟨ω, rfl⟩ | |
| rcases le_total (f ω) (g ω) with h | h | |
| · exact Or.inl ⟨ω, min_eq_left h |>.symm⟩ | |
| · exact Or.inr ⟨ω, min_eq_right h |>.symm⟩ | |
| variable {Ω : Type*} [mΩ : MeasurableSpace Ω] {μ : Measure Ω} [IsFiniteMeasure μ] | |
| {F : Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ} {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} {τ : Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0} | |
| theorem integrable_stoppedValue_of_countable | |
| (hM : Martingale M F μ) (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) | |
| (hcount : (range τ).Countable) {T : ℝ≥0} (hT : ∀ ω, τ ω ≤ T) : | |
| Integrable (stoppedValue M τ) μ := by | |
| exact integrable_condExp.congr | |
| (hM.stoppedValue_ae_eq_condExp_of_le_const_of_countable_range hτ hT hcount).symm | |
| theorem integral_stoppedValue_of_countable | |
| (hM : Martingale M F μ) (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) | |
| (hcount : (range τ).Countable) {T : ℝ≥0} (hT : ∀ ω, τ ω ≤ T) : | |
| (∫ ω, stoppedValue M τ ω ∂μ) = ∫ ω, M T ω ∂μ := by | |
| rw [integral_congr_ae | |
| (hM.stoppedValue_ae_eq_condExp_of_le_const_of_countable_range hτ hT hcount)] | |
| exact integral_condExp hτ.measurableSpace_le | |
| theorem martingale_stoppedProcess_of_countable | |
| (hM : Martingale M F μ) (hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F M) | |
| (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) (hcount : (range τ).Countable) : | |
| Martingale (stoppedProcess M τ) F μ := by | |
| have had := hprog.stronglyAdapted_stoppedProcess hτ | |
| have hint (t : ℝ≥0) : Integrable (stoppedProcess M τ t) μ := by | |
| exact integrable_stoppedValue_of_countable hM ((isStoppingTime_const F t).min hτ) | |
| (countable_range_min (countable_range_const _) hcount) (fun _ => min_le_left _ _) | |
| refine ⟨had, ?_⟩ | |
| intro s t hst | |
| apply (ae_eq_condExp_of_forall_setIntegral_eq (F.le s) (hint t) | |
| (fun A hA _ => (hint s).integrableOn) ?_ (had s).aestronglyMeasurable).symm | |
| intro A hA hAfin | |
| classical | |
| let ν : Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0 := Aᶜ.piecewise (fun _ => s) (fun _ => t) | |
| have hν : IsStoppingTime F ν := isStoppingTime_piecewise_const hst hA.compl | |
| have hνcount : (range ν).Countable := by | |
| apply (Set.to_countable ({(s : WithTop ℝ≥0), (t : WithTop ℝ≥0)} : Set (WithTop ℝ≥0))).mono | |
| rintro value ⟨sample, rfl⟩ | |
| change ν sample = (s : WithTop ℝ≥0) ∨ ν sample = (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) | |
| by_cases hsample : sample ∈ A | |
| · right | |
| simp only [ν, Set.piecewise, mem_compl_iff, hsample, not_true_eq_false, ite_false] | |
| · left | |
| simp only [ν, Set.piecewise, mem_compl_iff, hsample, not_false_eq_true, ite_true] | |
| have hνle (ω : Ω) : ν ω ≤ t := by | |
| by_cases hω : ω ∈ A | |
| · simp only [ν, Set.piecewise, mem_compl_iff, hω, not_true_eq_false, ite_false] | |
| exact le_rfl | |
| · simp only [ν, Set.piecewise, mem_compl_iff, hω, not_false_eq_true, ite_true] | |
| exact WithTop.coe_le_coe.mpr hst | |
| let π : Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0 := fun ω => min (ν ω) (τ ω) | |
| have hπ := hν.min hτ | |
| have hπcount := countable_range_min hνcount hcount | |
| have hmeanπ := integral_stoppedValue_of_countable hM hπ hπcount | |
| (fun ω => (min_le_left _ _).trans (hνle ω)) | |
| have hmeans := integral_stoppedValue_of_countable hM ((isStoppingTime_const F s).min hτ) | |
| (countable_range_min (countable_range_const _) hcount) | |
| (fun ω => (min_le_left _ _).trans (WithTop.coe_le_coe.mpr hst)) | |
| have hpiece : stoppedValue M π = | |
| A.piecewise (stoppedProcess M τ t) (stoppedProcess M τ s) := by | |
| funext ω | |
| by_cases hω : ω ∈ A <;> simp [π, ν, Set.piecewise, hω, stoppedValue, stoppedProcess] | |
| change (∫ ω, stoppedValue M π ω ∂μ) = ∫ ω, M t ω ∂μ at hmeanπ | |
| have hmean : (∫ ω, stoppedValue M π ω ∂μ) = ∫ ω, stoppedProcess M τ s ω ∂μ := | |
| hmeanπ.trans hmeans.symm | |
| rw [hpiece, integral_piecewise (F.le s A hA) (hint t).integrableOn | |
| (hint s).integrableOn] at hmean | |
| have hsplit := integral_add_compl (F.le s A hA) (hint s) | |
| linarith | |
| theorem martingale_stoppedProcess_of_approximation | |
| (hM : Martingale M F μ) (hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F M) | |
| (hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) | |
| (hdom : ∀ T : ℝ≥0, ∃ g : Ω → ℝ, Integrable g μ ∧ | |
| ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t ≤ T, |M t ω| ≤ g ω) | |
| (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) (τn : ℕ → Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0) | |
| (hτn : ∀ n, IsStoppingTime F (τn n)) | |
| (hcount : ∀ n, (range (τn n)).Countable) | |
| (htime : ∀ (ω : Ω) (t : ℝ≥0), Tendsto | |
| (fun n => (min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τn n ω)).untopA) atTop | |
| (𝓝 ((min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τ ω)).untopA))) : | |
| Martingale (stoppedProcess M τ) F μ := by | |
| have had := hprog.stronglyAdapted_stoppedProcess hτ | |
| have hMn (n : ℕ) : Martingale (stoppedProcess M (τn n)) F μ := | |
| martingale_stoppedProcess_of_countable hM hprog (hτn n) (hcount n) | |
| have hbound (T : ℝ≥0) (g : Ω → ℝ) | |
| (hg : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t ≤ T, |M t ω| ≤ g ω) | |
| (σ : Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0) : | |
| ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ‖stoppedProcess M σ T ω‖ ≤ g ω := by | |
| filter_upwards [hg] with ω hω | |
| exact hω _ (WithTop.untopA_le (min_le_left _ _)) | |
| have hint (t : ℝ≥0) : Integrable (stoppedProcess M τ t) μ := by | |
| obtain ⟨g, hg, hgb⟩ := hdom t | |
| exact hg.mono' ((had t).mono (F.le t)).aestronglyMeasurable (hbound t g hgb τ) | |
| have hlim (t : ℝ≥0) (A : Set Ω) : | |
| Tendsto (fun n => ∫ ω in A, stoppedProcess M (τn n) t ω ∂μ) atTop | |
| (𝓝 (∫ ω in A, stoppedProcess M τ t ω ∂μ)) := by | |
| obtain ⟨g, hg, hgb⟩ := hdom t | |
| apply tendsto_integral_of_dominated_convergence g | |
| (fun n => ((hMn n).integrable t).aestronglyMeasurable.restrict) hg.restrict | |
| (fun n => ae_restrict_of_ae (hbound t g hgb (τn n))) | |
| filter_upwards [ae_restrict_of_ae hc] with ω hcω | |
| exact (hcω.tendsto _).comp (htime ω t) | |
| refine ⟨had, ?_⟩ | |
| intro s t hst | |
| apply (ae_eq_condExp_of_forall_setIntegral_eq (F.le s) (hint t) | |
| (fun A hA _ => (hint s).integrableOn) ?_ (had s).aestronglyMeasurable).symm | |
| intro A hA hAfin | |
| exact tendsto_nhds_unique (hlim s A) | |
| (Filter.Tendsto.congr (fun n => ((hMn n).setIntegral_eq hst hA).symm) (hlim t A)) | |
| theorem martingale_stoppedProcess_of_approximation_bounded | |
| (hM : Martingale M F μ) (hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F M) | |
| (hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) {C : ℝ} | |
| (hb : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, |M t ω| ≤ C) | |
| (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) (τn : ℕ → Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0) | |
| (hτn : ∀ n, IsStoppingTime F (τn n)) | |
| (hcount : ∀ n, (range (τn n)).Countable) | |
| (htime : ∀ (ω : Ω) (t : ℝ≥0), Tendsto | |
| (fun n => (min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τn n ω)).untopA) atTop | |
| (𝓝 ((min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τ ω)).untopA))) : | |
| Martingale (stoppedProcess M τ) F μ := by | |
| apply martingale_stoppedProcess_of_approximation hM hprog hc _ hτ τn hτn hcount htime | |
| intro T | |
| exact ⟨fun _ => C, integrable_const C, hb.mono (fun ω hω t _ => hω t)⟩ | |
| theorem martingale_stopped_compensatedSquare_of_approximation | |
| {A : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} {C : ℝ} | |
| (hcomp : Martingale (fun t ω => (M t ω)^2 - A t ω) F μ) | |
| (hprogM : IsStronglyProgressive F M) (hprogA : IsStronglyProgressive F A) | |
| (hcM : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) | |
| (hcA : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => A t ω)) | |
| (hC : 0 ≤ C) (hb : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, |M t ω| ≤ C) | |
| (hA0 : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, 0 ≤ A t ω) | |
| (hAmono : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Monotone (fun t => A t ω)) | |
| (hAint : ∀ t, Integrable (A t) μ) | |
| (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) (τn : ℕ → Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0) | |
| (hτn : ∀ n, IsStoppingTime F (τn n)) | |
| (hcount : ∀ n, (range (τn n)).Countable) | |
| (htime : ∀ (ω : Ω) (t : ℝ≥0), Tendsto | |
| (fun n => (min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τn n ω)).untopA) atTop | |
| (𝓝 ((min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τ ω)).untopA))) : | |
| Martingale (fun t ω => (stoppedProcess M τ t ω)^2 - stoppedProcess A τ t ω) F μ := by | |
| have hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F (fun t ω => (M t ω)^2 - A t ω) := by | |
| intro t | |
| exact ((hprogM t).pow 2).sub (hprogA t) | |
| have hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => (M t ω)^2 - A t ω) := by | |
| filter_upwards [hcM, hcA] with ω hm ha | |
| exact (hm.pow 2).sub ha | |
| apply martingale_stoppedProcess_of_approximation hcomp hprog hc _ hτ τn hτn hcount htime | |
| intro T | |
| refine ⟨fun ω => C^2 + A T ω, (integrable_const _).add (hAint T), ?_⟩ | |
| filter_upwards [hb, hA0, hAmono] with ω hbw hA0w hAmonow | |
| intro t ht | |
| have hMsq : (M t ω)^2 ≤ C^2 := by | |
| have := (sq_le_sq₀ (abs_nonneg (M t ω)) hC).mpr (hbw t) | |
| simpa only [sq_abs] using this | |
| calc | |
| |(M t ω)^2 - A t ω| ≤ |(M t ω)^2| + |A t ω| := abs_sub _ _ | |
| _ = (M t ω)^2 + A t ω := by rw [abs_of_nonneg (sq_nonneg _), abs_of_nonneg (hA0w t)] | |
| _ ≤ C^2 + A T ω := add_le_add hMsq (hAmonow ht) | |
| theorem martingale_stoppedProcess_of_continuous_dominated | |
| (hM : Martingale M F μ) (hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F M) | |
| (hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) | |
| (hdom : ∀ T : ℝ≥0, ∃ g : Ω → ℝ, Integrable g μ ∧ | |
| ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t ≤ T, |M t ω| ≤ g ω) | |
| (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) : Martingale (stoppedProcess M τ) F μ := by | |
| obtain ⟨τn, hτn, hcount, htime⟩ := | |
| RoundedStoppingTimes.exists_countable_range_approximation hτ | |
| exact martingale_stoppedProcess_of_approximation hM hprog hc hdom hτ τn hτn hcount htime | |
| theorem martingale_stoppedProcess_of_continuous_bounded | |
| (hM : Martingale M F μ) (hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F M) | |
| (hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) {C : ℝ} | |
| (hb : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, |M t ω| ≤ C) | |
| (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) : Martingale (stoppedProcess M τ) F μ := by | |
| apply martingale_stoppedProcess_of_continuous_dominated hM hprog hc _ hτ | |
| intro T | |
| exact ⟨fun _ => C, integrable_const C, hb.mono (fun ω hω t _ => hω t)⟩ | |
| theorem martingale_stopped_compensatedSquare | |
| {A : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} {C : ℝ} | |
| (hcomp : Martingale (fun t ω => (M t ω)^2 - A t ω) F μ) | |
| (hprogM : IsStronglyProgressive F M) (hprogA : IsStronglyProgressive F A) | |
| (hcM : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) | |
| (hcA : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => A t ω)) | |
| (hC : 0 ≤ C) (hb : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, |M t ω| ≤ C) | |
| (hA0 : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, 0 ≤ A t ω) | |
| (hAmono : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Monotone (fun t => A t ω)) | |
| (hAint : ∀ t, Integrable (A t) μ) | |
| (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) : | |
| Martingale (fun t ω => (stoppedProcess M τ t ω)^2 - stoppedProcess A τ t ω) F μ := by | |
| obtain ⟨τn, hτn, hcount, htime⟩ := | |
| RoundedStoppingTimes.exists_countable_range_approximation hτ | |
| exact martingale_stopped_compensatedSquare_of_approximation hcomp hprogM hprogA hcM hcA | |
| hC hb hA0 hAmono hAint hτ τn hτn hcount htime | |
| end Problem367.ContinuousOptionalStopping | |
| end | |
| end OAI | |