openAI-math-dataset / lean /OAI /Probability /FreeIsing /Estimates /ContinuousOptionalStopping.lean
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import Mathlib
import OAI.Probability.FreeIsing.Estimates.RoundedStoppingTimes
namespace OAI
noncomputable section
open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter Set
open scoped NNReal Topology
namespace Problem367.ContinuousOptionalStopping
theorem countable_range_const {Ω α : Type*} (a : α) :
(range (fun _ : Ω => a)).Countable := by
apply (countable_singleton a).mono
rintro x ⟨ω, rfl⟩
exact mem_singleton a
theorem countable_range_min {Ω α : Type*} [LinearOrder α] {f g : Ω → α}
(hf : (range f).Countable) (hg : (range g).Countable) :
(range (fun ω => min (f ω) (g ω))).Countable := by
apply (hf.union hg).mono
rintro x ⟨ω, rfl⟩
rcases le_total (f ω) (g ω) with h | h
· exact Or.inl ⟨ω, min_eq_left h |>.symm⟩
· exact Or.inr ⟨ω, min_eq_right h |>.symm⟩
variable {Ω : Type*} [mΩ : MeasurableSpace Ω] {μ : Measure Ω} [IsFiniteMeasure μ]
{F : Filtration ℝ≥0 mΩ} {M : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} {τ : Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0}
theorem integrable_stoppedValue_of_countable
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ)
(hcount : (range τ).Countable) {T : ℝ≥0} (hT : ∀ ω, τ ω ≤ T) :
Integrable (stoppedValue M τ) μ := by
exact integrable_condExp.congr
(hM.stoppedValue_ae_eq_condExp_of_le_const_of_countable_range hτ hT hcount).symm
theorem integral_stoppedValue_of_countable
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ)
(hcount : (range τ).Countable) {T : ℝ≥0} (hT : ∀ ω, τ ω ≤ T) :
(∫ ω, stoppedValue M τ ω ∂μ) = ∫ ω, M T ω ∂μ := by
rw [integral_congr_ae
(hM.stoppedValue_ae_eq_condExp_of_le_const_of_countable_range hτ hT hcount)]
exact integral_condExp hτ.measurableSpace_le
theorem martingale_stoppedProcess_of_countable
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F M)
(hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) (hcount : (range τ).Countable) :
Martingale (stoppedProcess M τ) F μ := by
have had := hprog.stronglyAdapted_stoppedProcess hτ
have hint (t : ℝ≥0) : Integrable (stoppedProcess M τ t) μ := by
exact integrable_stoppedValue_of_countable hM ((isStoppingTime_const F t).min hτ)
(countable_range_min (countable_range_const _) hcount) (fun _ => min_le_left _ _)
refine ⟨had, ?_⟩
intro s t hst
apply (ae_eq_condExp_of_forall_setIntegral_eq (F.le s) (hint t)
(fun A hA _ => (hint s).integrableOn) ?_ (had s).aestronglyMeasurable).symm
intro A hA hAfin
classical
let ν : Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0 := Aᶜ.piecewise (fun _ => s) (fun _ => t)
have hν : IsStoppingTime F ν := isStoppingTime_piecewise_const hst hA.compl
have hνcount : (range ν).Countable := by
apply (Set.to_countable ({(s : WithTop ℝ≥0), (t : WithTop ℝ≥0)} : Set (WithTop ℝ≥0))).mono
rintro value ⟨sample, rfl⟩
change ν sample = (s : WithTop ℝ≥0) ∨ ν sample = (t : WithTop ℝ≥0)
by_cases hsample : sample ∈ A
· right
simp only [ν, Set.piecewise, mem_compl_iff, hsample, not_true_eq_false, ite_false]
· left
simp only [ν, Set.piecewise, mem_compl_iff, hsample, not_false_eq_true, ite_true]
have hνle (ω : Ω) : ν ω ≤ t := by
by_cases hω : ω ∈ A
· simp only [ν, Set.piecewise, mem_compl_iff, hω, not_true_eq_false, ite_false]
exact le_rfl
· simp only [ν, Set.piecewise, mem_compl_iff, hω, not_false_eq_true, ite_true]
exact WithTop.coe_le_coe.mpr hst
let π : Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0 := fun ω => min (ν ω) (τ ω)
have hπ := hν.min hτ
have hπcount := countable_range_min hνcount hcount
have hmeanπ := integral_stoppedValue_of_countable hM hπ hπcount
(fun ω => (min_le_left _ _).trans (hνle ω))
have hmeans := integral_stoppedValue_of_countable hM ((isStoppingTime_const F s).min hτ)
(countable_range_min (countable_range_const _) hcount)
(fun ω => (min_le_left _ _).trans (WithTop.coe_le_coe.mpr hst))
have hpiece : stoppedValue M π =
A.piecewise (stoppedProcess M τ t) (stoppedProcess M τ s) := by
funext ω
by_cases hω : ω ∈ A <;> simp [π, ν, Set.piecewise, hω, stoppedValue, stoppedProcess]
change (∫ ω, stoppedValue M π ω ∂μ) = ∫ ω, M t ω ∂μ at hmeanπ
have hmean : (∫ ω, stoppedValue M π ω ∂μ) = ∫ ω, stoppedProcess M τ s ω ∂μ :=
hmeanπ.trans hmeans.symm
rw [hpiece, integral_piecewise (F.le s A hA) (hint t).integrableOn
(hint s).integrableOn] at hmean
have hsplit := integral_add_compl (F.le s A hA) (hint s)
linarith
theorem martingale_stoppedProcess_of_approximation
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F M)
(hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω))
(hdom : ∀ T : ℝ≥0, ∃ g : Ω → ℝ, Integrable g μ ∧
∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t ≤ T, |M t ω| ≤ g ω)
(hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) (τn : ℕ → Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0)
(hτn : ∀ n, IsStoppingTime F (τn n))
(hcount : ∀ n, (range (τn n)).Countable)
(htime : ∀ (ω : Ω) (t : ℝ≥0), Tendsto
(fun n => (min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τn n ω)).untopA) atTop
(𝓝 ((min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τ ω)).untopA))) :
Martingale (stoppedProcess M τ) F μ := by
have had := hprog.stronglyAdapted_stoppedProcess hτ
have hMn (n : ℕ) : Martingale (stoppedProcess M (τn n)) F μ :=
martingale_stoppedProcess_of_countable hM hprog (hτn n) (hcount n)
have hbound (T : ℝ≥0) (g : Ω → ℝ)
(hg : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t ≤ T, |M t ω| ≤ g ω)
(σ : Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0) :
∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ‖stoppedProcess M σ T ω‖ ≤ g ω := by
filter_upwards [hg] with ω hω
exact hω _ (WithTop.untopA_le (min_le_left _ _))
have hint (t : ℝ≥0) : Integrable (stoppedProcess M τ t) μ := by
obtain ⟨g, hg, hgb⟩ := hdom t
exact hg.mono' ((had t).mono (F.le t)).aestronglyMeasurable (hbound t g hgb τ)
have hlim (t : ℝ≥0) (A : Set Ω) :
Tendsto (fun n => ∫ ω in A, stoppedProcess M (τn n) t ω ∂μ) atTop
(𝓝 (∫ ω in A, stoppedProcess M τ t ω ∂μ)) := by
obtain ⟨g, hg, hgb⟩ := hdom t
apply tendsto_integral_of_dominated_convergence g
(fun n => ((hMn n).integrable t).aestronglyMeasurable.restrict) hg.restrict
(fun n => ae_restrict_of_ae (hbound t g hgb (τn n)))
filter_upwards [ae_restrict_of_ae hc] with ω hcω
exact (hcω.tendsto _).comp (htime ω t)
refine ⟨had, ?_⟩
intro s t hst
apply (ae_eq_condExp_of_forall_setIntegral_eq (F.le s) (hint t)
(fun A hA _ => (hint s).integrableOn) ?_ (had s).aestronglyMeasurable).symm
intro A hA hAfin
exact tendsto_nhds_unique (hlim s A)
(Filter.Tendsto.congr (fun n => ((hMn n).setIntegral_eq hst hA).symm) (hlim t A))
theorem martingale_stoppedProcess_of_approximation_bounded
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F M)
(hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) {C : ℝ}
(hb : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, |M t ω| ≤ C)
(hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) (τn : ℕ → Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0)
(hτn : ∀ n, IsStoppingTime F (τn n))
(hcount : ∀ n, (range (τn n)).Countable)
(htime : ∀ (ω : Ω) (t : ℝ≥0), Tendsto
(fun n => (min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τn n ω)).untopA) atTop
(𝓝 ((min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τ ω)).untopA))) :
Martingale (stoppedProcess M τ) F μ := by
apply martingale_stoppedProcess_of_approximation hM hprog hc _ hτ τn hτn hcount htime
intro T
exact ⟨fun _ => C, integrable_const C, hb.mono (fun ω hω t _ => hω t)⟩
theorem martingale_stopped_compensatedSquare_of_approximation
{A : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} {C : ℝ}
(hcomp : Martingale (fun t ω => (M t ω)^2 - A t ω) F μ)
(hprogM : IsStronglyProgressive F M) (hprogA : IsStronglyProgressive F A)
(hcM : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω))
(hcA : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => A t ω))
(hC : 0 ≤ C) (hb : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, |M t ω| ≤ C)
(hA0 : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, 0 ≤ A t ω)
(hAmono : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Monotone (fun t => A t ω))
(hAint : ∀ t, Integrable (A t) μ)
(hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) (τn : ℕ → Ω → WithTop ℝ≥0)
(hτn : ∀ n, IsStoppingTime F (τn n))
(hcount : ∀ n, (range (τn n)).Countable)
(htime : ∀ (ω : Ω) (t : ℝ≥0), Tendsto
(fun n => (min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τn n ω)).untopA) atTop
(𝓝 ((min (t : WithTop ℝ≥0) (τ ω)).untopA))) :
Martingale (fun t ω => (stoppedProcess M τ t ω)^2 - stoppedProcess A τ t ω) F μ := by
have hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F (fun t ω => (M t ω)^2 - A t ω) := by
intro t
exact ((hprogM t).pow 2).sub (hprogA t)
have hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => (M t ω)^2 - A t ω) := by
filter_upwards [hcM, hcA] with ω hm ha
exact (hm.pow 2).sub ha
apply martingale_stoppedProcess_of_approximation hcomp hprog hc _ hτ τn hτn hcount htime
intro T
refine ⟨fun ω => C^2 + A T ω, (integrable_const _).add (hAint T), ?_⟩
filter_upwards [hb, hA0, hAmono] with ω hbw hA0w hAmonow
intro t ht
have hMsq : (M t ω)^2 ≤ C^2 := by
have := (sq_le_sq₀ (abs_nonneg (M t ω)) hC).mpr (hbw t)
simpa only [sq_abs] using this
calc
|(M t ω)^2 - A t ω| ≤ |(M t ω)^2| + |A t ω| := abs_sub _ _
_ = (M t ω)^2 + A t ω := by rw [abs_of_nonneg (sq_nonneg _), abs_of_nonneg (hA0w t)]
_ ≤ C^2 + A T ω := add_le_add hMsq (hAmonow ht)
theorem martingale_stoppedProcess_of_continuous_dominated
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F M)
(hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω))
(hdom : ∀ T : ℝ≥0, ∃ g : Ω → ℝ, Integrable g μ ∧
∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t ≤ T, |M t ω| ≤ g ω)
(hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) : Martingale (stoppedProcess M τ) F μ := by
obtain ⟨τn, hτn, hcount, htime⟩ :=
RoundedStoppingTimes.exists_countable_range_approximation hτ
exact martingale_stoppedProcess_of_approximation hM hprog hc hdom hτ τn hτn hcount htime
theorem martingale_stoppedProcess_of_continuous_bounded
(hM : Martingale M F μ) (hprog : IsStronglyProgressive F M)
(hc : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω)) {C : ℝ}
(hb : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, |M t ω| ≤ C)
(hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) : Martingale (stoppedProcess M τ) F μ := by
apply martingale_stoppedProcess_of_continuous_dominated hM hprog hc _ hτ
intro T
exact ⟨fun _ => C, integrable_const C, hb.mono (fun ω hω t _ => hω t)⟩
theorem martingale_stopped_compensatedSquare
{A : ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ} {C : ℝ}
(hcomp : Martingale (fun t ω => (M t ω)^2 - A t ω) F μ)
(hprogM : IsStronglyProgressive F M) (hprogA : IsStronglyProgressive F A)
(hcM : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => M t ω))
(hcA : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Continuous (fun t => A t ω))
(hC : 0 ≤ C) (hb : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, |M t ω| ≤ C)
(hA0 : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ t, 0 ≤ A t ω)
(hAmono : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, Monotone (fun t => A t ω))
(hAint : ∀ t, Integrable (A t) μ)
(hτ : IsStoppingTime F τ) :
Martingale (fun t ω => (stoppedProcess M τ t ω)^2 - stoppedProcess A τ t ω) F μ := by
obtain ⟨τn, hτn, hcount, htime⟩ :=
RoundedStoppingTimes.exists_countable_range_approximation hτ
exact martingale_stopped_compensatedSquare_of_approximation hcomp hprogM hprogA hcM hcA
hC hb hA0 hAmono hAint hτ τn hτn hcount htime
end Problem367.ContinuousOptionalStopping
end
end OAI