import Mathlib import OAI.Probability.CriticalPercolation.Gluing.ContourWords namespace OAI section section noncomputable section open Set Function MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory open scoped Classical BigOperators ENNReal namespace CriticalPercolation lemma measureReal_countable_union_bound {Ω I : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [Countable I] (μ : Measure Ω) [IsFiniteMeasure μ] (A : I → Set Ω) (b : I → ℝ) (hb : ∀ i, 0≤b i) (hs : Summable b) (hA : ∀ i, μ.real (A i)≤b i) : μ.real (⋃ i, A i)≤∑' i, b i := by have hh (i : I) : μ (A i)≤ENNReal.ofReal (b i) := by calc μ (A i)=ENNReal.ofReal (μ.real (A i)) := by simp [Measure.real] _ ≤ ENNReal.ofReal (b i) := ENNReal.ofReal_le_ofReal (hA i) have h := (measure_iUnion_le A).trans (ENNReal.tsum_le_tsum hh) rw [← ENNReal.ofReal_tsum_of_nonneg hb hs] at h have ht := ENNReal.toReal_mono (by finiteness) h simpa only [Measure.real,ENNReal.toReal_ofReal (tsum_nonneg hb)] using ht namespace Boundary def wordFailure {Ω : Type*} (B : Set Ω) (F : Grid → Set Ω) {n : ℕ} (w : Fin n → Dir) : Set Ω := if wordValid (0,1) w then B∩⋂ z∈outsideSites (wordEdge (0,1) w) n, F z else ∅ lemma wordFailure_bound {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] (μ : Measure Ω) [IsFiniteMeasure μ] (B : Set Ω) (F : Grid → Set Ω) (q : ℝ) (hq₀ : 0≤q) (hq₁ : q≤1) (hfail : ∀ s : Finset Grid, μ.real (B∩⋂ z∈s, F z)≤μ.real B*(q^4)^s.card) (n : ℕ) (w : Fin n → Dir) : μ.real (wordFailure B F w)≤μ.real B*q^n := by by_cases hw : wordValid (0,1) w · rw [wordFailure,ite_eq_left hw] apply (hfail _).trans apply mul_le_mul_of_nonneg_left _ (measureReal_nonneg) rw [← pow_mul] exact pow_le_pow_of_le_one hq₀ hq₁ (length_le_four_outside _ _ (wordEdge_chain (0,1) w) hw.1 hw.2) · rw [wordFailure,ite_eq_right hw] simp only [measureReal_empty] positivity theorem finite_good_probability_bound {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] (μ : Measure Ω) [IsFiniteMeasure μ] (B : Set Ω) (S : Ω → Set Grid) (F : Grid → Set Ω) (hroot : ∀ ω∈B, (0,0)∈S ω) (hquad : ∀ ω∈B, ∀ v∈S ω, 0≤v.1 ∧ 0≤v.2) (hchild : ∀ ω∈B, ∀ z, z∉S ω → (∃ y∈S ω, z=y+(1,0) ∨ z=y+(0,1)) → ω∈F z) (q : ℝ) (hq₀ : 0≤q) (hq : 4*q<1) (hfail : ∀ s : Finset Grid, μ.real (B∩⋂ z∈s, F z)≤μ.real B*(q^4)^s.card) : μ.real (B∩{ω | (S ω).Finite})≤μ.real B*(4*q)/(1-4*q) := by have hsub : B∩{ω | (S ω).Finite}⊆ ⋃ n : ℕ, ⋃ w : Fin (n+1) → Dir, wordFailure B F w := by intro ω hω obtain ⟨n,w,hw,hz⟩ := finite_good_contour (S ω) hω.2 (hroot ω hω.1) (hquad ω hω.1) refine Set.mem_iUnion.mpr ⟨n,Set.mem_iUnion.mpr ⟨w,?_⟩⟩ rw [wordFailure,ite_eq_left hw] refine ⟨hω.1,Set.mem_iInter.mpr fun z => Set.mem_iInter.mpr fun hs => ?_⟩ exact hchild ω hω.1 z (hz z hs).1 (hz z hs).2 have hq₁ : q≤1 := by linarith have hterm (n : ℕ) : μ.real (⋃ w : Fin (n+1) → Dir, wordFailure B F w)≤μ.real B*(4*q)^(n+1) := by apply (measureReal_iUnion_fintype_le _).trans calc (∑ w : Fin (n+1) → Dir, μ.real (wordFailure B F w))≤ ∑ _w : Fin (n+1) → Dir, μ.real B*q^(n+1) := Finset.sum_le_sum (fun w _ => wordFailure_bound μ B F q hq₀ hq₁ hfail (n+1) w) _ = μ.real B*(4*q)^(n+1) := by simp only [Finset.sum_const,Finset.card_univ,card_words,nsmul_eq_mul, Nat.cast_pow,Nat.cast_ofNat,mul_pow] ring have hs₀ : Summable (fun n : ℕ => (4*q)^n) := summable_geometric_of_lt_one (by positivity) hq have hs : Summable (fun n : ℕ => μ.real B*(4*q)^(n+1)) := ((summable_nat_add_iff 1).mpr hs₀).mul_left _ have hu := measureReal_countable_union_bound μ (fun n => ⋃ w : Fin (n+1) → Dir, wordFailure B F w) (fun n => μ.real B*(4*q)^(n+1)) (fun _ => by positivity) hs hterm apply ((measureReal_mono hsub).trans hu).trans_eq simp_rw [pow_succ] rw [tsum_mul_left,tsum_mul_right,tsum_geometric_of_lt_one (by positivity) hq] ring theorem infinite_good_positive {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] (μ : Measure Ω) [IsFiniteMeasure μ] (B : Set Ω) (S : Ω → Set Grid) (F : Grid → Set Ω) (hB : 0<μ.real B) (hroot : ∀ ω∈B, (0,0)∈S ω) (hquad : ∀ ω∈B, ∀ v∈S ω, 0≤v.1 ∧ 0≤v.2) (hchild : ∀ ω∈B, ∀ z, z∉S ω → (∃ y∈S ω, z=y+(1,0) ∨ z=y+(0,1)) → ω∈F z) (q : ℝ) (hq₀ : 0≤q) (hq : 8*q<1) (hfail : ∀ s : Finset Grid, μ.real (B∩⋂ z∈s, F z)≤μ.real B*(q^4)^s.card) : 0<μ.real (B∩{ω | (S ω).Infinite}) := by have hh : 4*q<1 := by linarith have hf := finite_good_probability_bound μ B S F hroot hquad hchild q hq₀ hh hfail have hratio : μ.real B*(4*q)/(1-4*q)<μ.real B := by apply (div_lt_iff₀ (by linarith : 0<1-4*q)).mpr nlinarith [mul_pos hB (by linarith : 0<1-8*q)] have he : B=(B∩{ω | (S ω).Finite})∪(B∩{ω | (S ω).Infinite}) := by ext ω simp only [Set.mem_union,Set.mem_inter_iff,Set.mem_ofPred_eq,Set.Infinite] tauto have hu := measureReal_union_le (μ := μ) (B∩{ω | (S ω).Finite}) (B∩{ω | (S ω).Infinite}) rw [← he] at hu linarith end Boundary end CriticalPercolation end end end end OAI