\n\nA previous question did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the odds (given by p/(1-p)) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period.", "resc": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\n\nThis question resolves as **YES** if both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [Human Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc.", "prediction": "82%"} +{"title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", "desc": "", "resc": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\n\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\n\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\n\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\n\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.", "prediction": "86%"} +{"title": "Does P = NP?", "desc": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\n\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)", "resc": "If no award is given by the Clay Institute (between January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2100) for a proof or disproof of P = NP, this question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal *or* preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\n\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n\n1. 61 thought P≠NP.\n2. 9 thought P=NP.\n3. 4 thought that it is independent.\n4. 3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic.\n5. 1 said it would depend on the model.\n6. 22 offered no opinion", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?", "desc": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O'Neill wrote and published his seminal work, *[The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3)*. In it O'Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\n\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\n\nBut they don't have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The *[Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir)* was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The *[International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station)* took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \n\nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2100, there is a settlement(s) off-Earth with over 2,000 5+ year residents that are [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs", "prediction": "71%"} +{"title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", "desc": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n\n + Publicly identify as something else than cisgender.\n + Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual.\n\nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\n\nResolution will be by credible media reports.", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "51%"} +{"title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "9%"} +{"title": "By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "desc": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\nIt's dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\n \nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\n\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\n\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\n\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\n\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn't in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\n\n-------\n\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n 1. The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that's present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n> 2. The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI's goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn't malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren't aligned with ours, we have a problem. You're probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you're in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there's an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants.\n\nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. It resolves **No** if this occurs for non-AI reasons, and **Annulled** if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?", "desc": "", "resc": "This star (aka \"Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).\n\nMost attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.\n\nNow I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says \"yeah, of course that's what it was!\", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?\n\nFrom [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:\n\n>7.2.\n>*An intervening molecular cloud*\n>\n>Alternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).\n>\n>The Clemens & Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.\n>\n>A quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian's Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40\", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian's Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the \"mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian's Star).\n>\n>In this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian's Star through the cloud's slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.\n\nThis question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:\n\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n\n- provide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and\n \n- are cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and\n\n- are cited at least 5 times in total, and\n\n- are not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.\n\nIf N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N>1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.\n\nResolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)", "prediction": "36%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?", "desc": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\n[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there'd likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world's worst off.\n\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n\n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\nHence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \n\nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \n\nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \n\nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.", "resc": "**If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth's climate system?**\n\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\n\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.", "prediction": "4%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?", "desc": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nIn 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\n\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \n\n> In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \n\n> Plants with ‘leaves' no more efficient than today's solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\n\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\n\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an “active shield”). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn't require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\n\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\n\n\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n", "resc": "**If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?**\n\nIn [the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\n\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.", "prediction": "2.5%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?", "desc": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nNo single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\n\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\n\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\n\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n\n> (i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n\n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n\n- New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n- Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n- The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \n\nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).", "resc": "[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \n\n**If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?**\n\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Bioengineering is here defined to include the application of biotechnology to enhance or increase the virulenc, infectiousness or resistance to treatment of naturally ocurring viruses.\n\n If the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\n\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\n\n> ON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \n\nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\n\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)", "prediction": "1.5%"} +{"title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?", "desc": "", "resc": "*Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.*\n\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\n\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\n\nBut what's the *long* long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n\n* We could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n\n* A [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n\n* Protons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\n\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \n\nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India before 2028?", "desc": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n\n* On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away.\n* This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos.\n* LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars).\n* The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works).\n\nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \n\nWe need backup, apparently!\n\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\n\n> Adding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\n\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if LIGO-India's observatory becomes operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) at any point before January 1, 2028", "prediction": "35%"} +{"title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?", "desc": "", "resc": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \n\nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n\n> 1. The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that's present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n\n> 2. The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI's goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn't malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren't aligned with ours, we have a problem.\n\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \n\nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\n\n**Will the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?**\n\n\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) *fail* to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.", "prediction": "84%"} +{"title": "Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?", "desc": "Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). \n\nGiven these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks]( https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C.\nBut [there is also a non-negligible chance]( https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\n\nIn particular, [it has been argued that]( https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a >6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.\n\nThe estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,]( https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) \n>The risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2100, there is a 5-year period in which the average global temperature in each year is at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880, according to [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 3.4˚C.\n\nIf NASA does not provide this data for a complete period up to 2100 (or a potential earlier resolution date), Metaculus may select an alternative credible source of data at their discretion", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide before 2035?", "desc": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the *Fusarium* clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as *the* banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\n\nHowever, it appears [another *Fusarium* rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they're all clones) and sterile nature, aren't resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \n\nThere are efforts under way to deal with *Fusarium*, but with various societies' doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Cavendish banana accounts for less than 50% of worldwide annual banana exports in any year from 2018 to 2034 (inclusive)", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2030?", "desc": "Despite [Kepler's recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon's mass to thirty times Jupiter's, their atmospheres' compositions are harder to detect.\n\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found *what* is in their air, not *how much* or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\n\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn't the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \n\nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn't mean someone clever won't come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any exoplanet with >5% O2 atmosphere is found before January 1, 2030", "prediction": "60%"} +{"title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable\nDevelopment Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\n\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a\nday, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\n\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\n\n**Will we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Will China's GDP exceed the United States' GDP in any year before 2041?", "desc": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\n\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015.\nIn Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\n\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before 2041. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).", "prediction": "56%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "desc": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nA nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun's thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.\n\nAccording to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.\n\nThis could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.\n\nThese studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are.", "resc": "In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). Now it is asked,\n\n**Given that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?**\n\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nuclear catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves *positively* if such a catastrophe does occur, **and** the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves negative if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?", "desc": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups Giving What We Can and Givewell.\n\nSince then, around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes to the world's most effective charities, thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world. Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively donate around $5-10M each year, has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, which has made around $600M of charitable grants.\n\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?", "resc": "**Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?**\n\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \n\n*Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.*", "prediction": "79%"} +{"title": "Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?", "desc": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \n\nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In an interview with Axios Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It will resolve as **No** if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n\nIf Musk has neither died nor personally gone to Mars before January 1, 2095, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "prediction": "9%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "42%"} +{"title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "59%"} +{"title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?", "desc": "", "resc": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \n\nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. \n\nThis question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.", "prediction": "57%"} +{"title": "By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "4%"} +{"title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will there be a commercial service to travel between London and New York City in under three hours before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "97.6%"} +{"title": "Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?", "desc": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \n\nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \n\nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\n\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\n\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \n\nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2025, the Second Amendment is repealed, amended, or modified in any way through the proceduce in [Article Five](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Five_of_the_United_States_Constitution) of the US Constitution", "prediction": "0.1%"} +{"title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?", "desc": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \n\nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \n\nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \n\nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\n\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \n\nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \n\nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 100kg of resources are harvested *primarily for commercial purposes* from any asteroids or comets before January 1, 2030, according to credible media reports.\n\nResources mined from asteroids or comets *after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body* do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "desc": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nCurrently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\n\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\n\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\n\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n\n> 1. The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that's present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n> 2. The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI's goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn't malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren't aligned with ours, we have a problem. You're probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you're in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there's an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants.", "resc": "In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\n\n**Given that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?**\n\nThe question resolves *positive* if such a catastrophe does occur, **and** the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves *ambiguous* if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves *negative* if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.", "prediction": "68%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "desc": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/).\n\nNo single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf\n) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\n\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\n\n> Past studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills \\(10^x\\) people is about 3 times less likely (\\(10^{0.5}\\)) than an attack that kills \\(10x^{x-1}\\) people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be \\((5 billion)^{–0.5}\\) or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or \\(1.4 × 10^{-6}\\)).\n\n\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n", "resc": "**Given that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?**\n\nThe question resolves *positive* if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, **and** the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves *ambiguous* if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves *negative* if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) **but** the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \n\nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.", "prediction": "9%"} +{"title": "Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?", "desc": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\n\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2019 and January 1, 2050, both of these conditions are true:\n\n1. There is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP in PPP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. \n\n2. At least 10 million people (civillians or military personnel) have been killed in the conflict.\n\n*[see edit history in the fine print]*", "prediction": "24%"} +{"title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\n\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\n\nSimilar questions:\n\n- [When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/)\n- [When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/)", "prediction": "59%"} +{"title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?", "desc": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\n\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \n\nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\n\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\n\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the de facto Head of Government of Scotland formally declares to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, effective at any point between January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2025.\n\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until January 1, 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\n\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, **or** by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\n\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before January 1, 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\n\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n\n1. Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62\n2. Amazon.com Inc AMZN 800.88\n4. Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23\n4. Apple Inc AAPL 739.27\n5. Facebook Inc FB 354.29\n6. Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95\n7. JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44\n8. Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62\n9. Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79\n10. Walmart Inc WMT 281.98\n11. Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85\n12. UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64\n13. Visa Inc V 238.97\n14. Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51\n15. Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95\n16. Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50\n17. Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55\n18. AT&T Inc T 223.22\n19. Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33\n20. Intel Corporation INTC 214.2\n\nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\n\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\n\nThis question asks: **Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?**\n\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, **as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company**) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\n\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.", "prediction": "7%"} +{"title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\n\n**Will any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?**\n\nResolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.\n\nOur comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.", "prediction": "4%"} +{"title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?", "desc": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \n\nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \n\nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least *capable* of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause", "prediction": "34%"} +{"title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)\n\nThe Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.\n\nNo state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.\n\nAndorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.\n\n*** Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025? ***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before January 1, 2025, any full Member State of the Eurozone (as of February 10, 2019) ceases to use the Euro as its official currency.\n\nThe list of Eurozone member states recognized for this question is: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.\n\nNote that this question *does not* apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10, 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also *does not* apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\n\nResolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?", "desc": "Frédérique Martel's [new book](https://www.amazon.com/Closet-Vatican-Power-Homosexuality-Hypocrisy/dp/1472966147/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric+Martel&qid=1550223728&s=gateway&sr=8-1) is the latest affirmation that homosexuality is very common in the ranks of the Catholic church.", "resc": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a reigning Pope of the Catholic Church has officially stated that they are gay (including lesbian in case of a female pope), bisexual, or transgender at any time between January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2050. If this does not occur because the Catholic Church no longer exists, or does not formally name a pope, supreme pontiff, or head bishop, such conditions are still elligible to resolve the question as **No**", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\n\nThis question asks: **In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of *greater than 8.7%*, beating the record set in 1950?**\n\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\n\n*Edit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.*", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?", "desc": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\n\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\n\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that's an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \n\nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total population of Nigeria is at least 400 million people at any point before January 1, 2050, according to the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on January 1, 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.", "prediction": "37%"} +{"title": "Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?", "desc": "Electricity, internal combustion engines,\nand semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \n\nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \n\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol's “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\n\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \n\nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). \n\nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY)", "prediction": "55%"} +{"title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "60%"} +{"title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission's goals?", "desc": "", "resc": "After many months of deliberation Germany's [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment] (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n\n* Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022;\n* Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030;\n* The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years.\n\nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe's biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \n\nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\n\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\n\n**Will Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\n\n[Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment\n[especially considering some of Europe's highest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany.]: https://sandbag.org.uk/2015/04/01/for-the-first-time-4-out-of-5-largest-eu-emitters-are-german-lignite-power-stations/\n\n-----\n\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?", "desc": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, lands one or more living humans on the Moon at any time between January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2025.\n\nThe crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \n\nA positive resolution requires that the mission is *more than 50%* funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \n\nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?", "desc": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \n\nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn't mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\n\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \n\nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\n\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.", "resc": "For a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation's poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n\n(*Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.*", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?", "desc": "", "resc": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \n\nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\n\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\n\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \n\nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\n\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\n\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\n\n**This question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?**", "prediction": "32%"} +{"title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated before 2051?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "36%"} +{"title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Before 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", "desc": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html).", "resc": "As AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\n\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).", "prediction": "72%"} +{"title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?", "desc": "", "resc": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\n\n\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\n\n```\ncollatz(n) = \n if (n is 1) return 1\n else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2)\n else return collatz(3n + 1)\n```\n\nwhere n is a positive integer.\n\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\n\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\n\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\n\n*This question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time.* \n\nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\n\n-----\n\n\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n\n- [Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/)\n- [Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/)\n- [When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/)\n- [When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/)", "prediction": "95%"} +{"title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?", "desc": "", "resc": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.\n\nLet's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\n\n```\ncollatz(n) = \n if (n is 1) return 1\n else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2)\n else return collatz(3n + 1)\nwhere input n is a positive integer.\n```\n\nThe Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.\n\nLet's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.\n\nDoes collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.\n\nNote that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.\n\nResolution:\n\n- *This question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.*\n\n- *It will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.*\n\n- *Both of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.*\n\nIf no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n\n-----\n\n\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n\n- [Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/)\n- [Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/)\n- [When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/)\n- [When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/)", "prediction": "92%"} +{"title": "In 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?", "desc": "", "resc": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n\n\n- 1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n - 1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n - 300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n - 150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe.\n- 2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises.\n \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration's [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\n\n**In 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?**\n\nThis resolves positive if credible sources, such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)) reports that the US held 3,800 (or fewer) nuclear warheads at any time in 2029. A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\n\n------\n\nSee also the related question, [If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/)", "prediction": "58%"} +{"title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?", "desc": "", "resc": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\n\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\n\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \n\n**By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?**", "prediction": "7%"} +{"title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "desc": "", "resc": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\n\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\n\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\n\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\n\n\n**Will the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?**\n\n___\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the _Penicillium_ mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\n\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\n\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\n\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000.\n\n**At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?**", "prediction": "49%"} +{"title": "Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?", "desc": "", "resc": "The Hubble \"constant\", \\(H_0\\), is basically the _current_ expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time).\nTwo main ways to [determine the value of \\(H_0\\)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\n\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \n\nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&src=typed_query&f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\n\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\n\nThe question asks:\n\n**By 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?**\n\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is < 2 sigma. A mean of > 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \n\nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.", "prediction": "52%"} +{"title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?", "desc": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report's analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos' report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\n\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.", "resc": "Note that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.", "prediction": "4%"} +{"title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "42%"} +{"title": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?", "desc": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths\n) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\n\n> Since 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom's Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the number of military deaths across all branches of the US armed forces is greater than 3,000 in any calendar year between 2019 and 2031 (inclusive), according to the [Congressional Research Service](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/details?prodcode=IF10899). Deaths should include all branches of the US armed forces and all active duty troops, including mobilized Reserve and Guard components. The estimate should include only \"Non-Overseas Contingency Operations\". Contingency Operations are defined by CRS according to\n\n>Section 101 of Title 10, United States Code, defines a contingency operation as any Secretary of Defense-designated military operation “in which members of the armed forces are or may become involved in military actions, operations, or hostilities against an enemy of the United States or against an opposing military force.\n\nIf data by CRS is not available or complete between 2019 and 2031, Metaculus may select another credible source of data, or resolve as **Ambiguous** at their discretion", "prediction": "27%"} +{"title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?", "desc": "", "resc": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\n\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\n\n**Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index]((https://fragilestatesindex.org))?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\n\n\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\n\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.", "prediction": "55%"} +{"title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?", "desc": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \n\n> The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \n\n> The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \n\nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\n\n> A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\n\n> A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports (cumulatively) payloads of at least 10 metric tons or more by January 1, 2046 .\n\nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \n\nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?", "desc": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n\n- Deliberate nuclear attack.\n\n- Accidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n\n- Accidental detonation of a weapon.\n\n- Nuclear terrorism.\n\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\n\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) *do not* trigger negative resolution.\n\n\nSee our related question [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/)\n\n\\* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\n\n\\(^†\\) Note that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%).\nIn November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\n\n>In an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Caro's fifth and final volume of _The Years of Lyndon Johnson_ becomes available for order (_not_ pre-order) on amazon.com while Caro is still alive.\n\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, this question will resolve as **No** if the book intended to be the last one is not published during Caro's lifetime. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.*", "prediction": "54%"} +{"title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "52%"} +{"title": "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "7%"} +{"title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\n\n**Will the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?**\n\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.", "prediction": "55%"} +{"title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?", "desc": "", "resc": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\n\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n\n- Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist\n- Voltaire, French philosopher\n- Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor\n\nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\n\n**Will there be a *sitting* U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?**\n\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?", "desc": "", "resc": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\n\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\n\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \n\n**Will ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?**\n\n-----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.", "prediction": "74%"} +{"title": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?", "desc": "", "resc": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore's law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\n\nFor the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited\nenormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. \n\nOne of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.\n\nAdditionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).\n\nTo continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.\n\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\n\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\n\n**Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?**\n\n------\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThe question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: \n\n> geometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) > geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).\n\nPerformance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).\n\nAs the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:\n\n- Jul year 0 to Jul year 1\n- Nov year 0 to Nov year 1\n- Jul year 1 to Jul year 2\n- Nov year 1 to Nov year 2\n- Jul year 2 to Jul year 3\n- Nov year 2 to Nov year 3\n\nFor example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:\n\n- Jul 2025 to Jul 2026\n- Nov 2025 to Nov 2026\n- Jul 2026 to Jul 2027\n- Nov 2026 to Nov 2027\n- Jul 2027 to Jul 2028\n- Nov 2027 to Nov 2028\n\nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.\n\n**Data**\n\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.", "prediction": "46%"} +{"title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\n\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\n\nQuestion: **Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?**\n\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, metaculus.com is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\n\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Before 2030, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?", "desc": "", "resc": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \n\nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\n\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\n\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\n\n>Animals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \n\nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\n\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\n\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\n\n**By the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?**\n\n-----\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive *to have come into effect* before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.\n\nThis question asks: **Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?**\n\nFor a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). \n\nIf the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.\n\nHowever, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.", "prediction": "78%"} +{"title": "Will US consumers be unable to purchase the Cavendish banana at major US grocery chains on December 31, 2029?", "desc": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\n\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\n\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if Cavendish bananas are unavailable in the US on December 31, 2029.\n\n* The question resolves **negatively** if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not).\n* This question will be resolved on December 31, 2029. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution.\n* \"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will *not* be sufficient for a positive resolution", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?", "desc": "", "resc": "*To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born.*\n\nJeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal _Rejuvenation Research_, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for tax evasion purposes.\n\nVersions of this “identity switch hypothesis” had been advanced in the past (including by [fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/#comment-2084)), but it was only with the publication of Zak's paper and its popularization and further development by life-extension activist Yuri Deigin in [a series of blog posts](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148.s001) that the thesis attracted widespread attention and discussion. The main facts adduced in support of this hypothesis are, to quote from Gwern's useful [summary](https://www.gwern.net/Questions#jeanne-calment), \"the suspiciousness of the Calment family archives being destroyed by them, some anomalies in Calment's passport, oddities in family arrangements, apparent inconsistency of Calment's recollections & timing of events & photos, facial landmarks like ear features not seeming to match up between young/old photos, and an obscure 2007 accusation in a French book that a French bureaucrat and/or the insurance company had uncovered the fraud but the French state quietly suppressed the findings because of Calment's national fame.\"\n\nThe response of the professional community of demographers has been generally skeptical. Jean-Marie Robine, a respected scholar who co-validated Calment's longevity record, was [particularly critical](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/): \"You can talk with any scholar, who would say, we would not accept this even from a student. It's not scientific, there's no methodology, no hypothesis, no nothing.\" His colleague and co-author Michel Allard also criticized the study, though he [noted](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1OX14T) that \"even if far-fetched, the Russians' conclusions should be given consideration.\" After a \"rather tense\" meeting of the National Institute for Demographic Studies in early 2019, longevity experts from France, Swiss and Belgium concluded that an exhumation may be needed to settle the controversy.\n\nMore recently, it has been discovered that blood samples taken from Mme Calment have been preserved by the [Fondation Jean Dausset-CEPH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fondation_Jean_Dausset-CEPH) in Paris. Furthermore, [researcher Phil Gibbs](https://the110club.com/did-jeanne-calment-really-reach-122-t3663-s315.html#p40063394) and [gerontologist Aubrey De Grey](https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/DNA-blood-test-could-reveal-if-Jeanne-Calment-was-really-122) independently noted that, because of inbreeding, Yvonne Calment had only 12 great-great-grandparents, whereas Jeanne Calment had the usual 16. Thus, the true identity of Mme Calment could be straightforwardly established by conducting a single DNA test on a blood sample already in possession of a laboratory.\n\nIn light of this, we now ask: **Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?**\n\n##Resolution\n\nThe question will resolve before the official resolution date (January 1, 2030) if and when the results of a DNA test of Mme Calment, following either an exhumation of her body or an analysis of a preserved blood sample, are officially announced. The resolution will then be determined as follows:\n\n1. If the DNA of the exhumed body or the blood sample is shown to be that of someone with 12 great-great-grandparents, the question resolves negative; if it is shown the be that of someone with 16 great-great-grandparents, it resolves positive; otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n\n2. If the official body of Yvonne Calment is also exhumed and tested, the question resolves negative if DNA testing shows Mme Calment to be Yvonne Calment, and positive otherwise.\n\n3. In the unlikely event that both of the criteria above become relevant and yield inconsistent resolutions, the question will resolve according to criterion (2).\n\nIn all these cases, the question will retroactively close one week before the test results are officially announced.\n\nIf the question doesn't resolve before the official resolution date, it will resolve ambiguous.\n\n## Further reading\nIn addition to the writings listed above, readers may want to consult the following papers:\n\n* Zak & Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2019.2227) (in favor of the ID switch hypothesis).\n\n* Robine, Allard, Herrmann & Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest\nEver Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).", "prediction": "44%"} +{"title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "32%"} +{"title": "Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 PPM over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?", "desc": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\n\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\n\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\n\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).", "resc": "---\n\n**Resolution**\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\n\n**Data**\n\n- [Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n\n- [Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/)", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)\n* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)\n\n----\n\nSo far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\n\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US House of Representatives votes to impeach the next President of the United States (meaning the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office). This question will resolve as **No** if the next US president leaves office without being impeached", "prediction": "13%"} +{"title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\n\n> I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\n\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\n\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research\\* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n\n 1. The English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\n\n or\n\n 2. History.com's summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\n\n or\n\n 3. The transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\n\nIt also resolves positively if:\n\n 4. A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging.\n\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\n\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n\n*ETA: 2022-04-08: qualifying primary or general presidential election debates are limited to mainstream debates (i.e., Republican and Democratic primaries + general election debates).*\n\n\n\n\\* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n\n", "prediction": "58%"} +{"title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\n\nThis question resolves positively if *any* military personnel\\* are conscripted\\(^†\\) for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n\n---\n\n\\* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\n\\(^†\\) \"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "56%"} +{"title": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\n\n> Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\n\nHe plans to do that unsing *technology* (ibid.):\n\n> “Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”\n\n> Once a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug's value to government groups and payers.\n\n> Combined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\n\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\n\n> Quite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”\n\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\n\n> No, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\n\n> no, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.\n\n> I will put up $500 dollars on LongBets.com against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\n\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: **Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?**\n\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.", "prediction": "38%"} +{"title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?", "desc": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)\n\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is an armed conflict before January 1, 2070 where either of the following conditions are true:\n\n- *Three* countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory\n\n- *Two* countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. \n\nThese conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.\n\nAs with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2070 anyway", "prediction": "12%"} +{"title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?", "desc": "", "resc": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom's Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\n\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n\n- Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good\n- Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making\n- Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed\n- Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts\n- Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed\n\nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n\n1. [Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=3&r=1). This bill recommends \na research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n\n2. [American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&s=2&r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\n\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \n\n**Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?**\n\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\n> \"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\n\n> Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\n\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?", "desc": "Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?\n\nSource: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/)", "resc": "This resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25% or less to global electricity production in 2030?", "desc": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\n\n> P4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\n\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\n\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\n\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus before 2029?", "desc": "", "resc": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\n\nOn February 3, 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\n\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?\n\nThis question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is \"first in the nation\".\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"caucus\" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [\"walking subcaucus\" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).\n\nA \"first in the nation primary event\" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the \"first in the nation primary event\".\n\nThe \"US Democratic primary election\" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).", "prediction": "37%"} +{"title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "desc": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.", "resc": "For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\n\nor\n\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\n\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", "desc": "", "resc": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\n\n\n---\n\n\n\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\n\n\n---\n\n\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\n\n---\n\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\n\n\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\n\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", "desc": "", "resc": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\n\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n\n* The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030.\n* There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies.\n* A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s.\n\nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.", "prediction": "99%"} +{"title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "56%"} +{"title": "Will the US Supreme Court change its membership size before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "39%"} +{"title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?", "desc": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1 2050, The People's Republic of China formally and publicly recognizes the Sovereignty of the Republic of China (Taiwan)", "prediction": "4.5%"} +{"title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.\n\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", "desc": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.", "prediction": "16%"} +{"title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\n\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n\nThis question can be resolved at any time.", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?", "desc": "", "resc": "Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).\n\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?", "desc": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of [this bet](http://longbets.org/1/). If Mitchell Kapor wins, then this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\n\n> Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\n\n> Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\n\n> During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\n\n> The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.", "prediction": "88%"} +{"title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "60%"} +{"title": "Will renewable energy contribute between 25% and 48% to global electricity production in 2030?", "desc": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\n\n> P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\n\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\n\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if renewable energy contributes between 25.00% and 48.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\n\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments", "prediction": "83%"} +{"title": "Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?", "desc": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\n\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\n\n> In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\n\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\n\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\". *ETA (2021-07-06) to clarify, this doesn't 'dispute all lab-origins, just those that involve genetic modification.*", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For this question we will consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n\n- [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service))\n- The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit))\n- [World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/)\n- [The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/)\n- The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html)\n- [Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html)\n- [The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/)\n- [Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england)\n- [The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx)\n- [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=)\n- [The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html)\n\nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a single public health agency.\n\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\"", "prediction": "9%"} +{"title": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?", "desc": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.", "resc": "This question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\n\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "48%"} +{"title": "Will any bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by April 5, 2075?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?", "desc": "", "resc": "My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie *Sleeper*, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not \"steak or cream pies or hot fudge\", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.\n\nIn the 45+ years since then it's not gotten *that* much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. \n\nThe idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:\n\n\"It is generally acknowledged in the scientific community that a ketogenic diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people when adopted for a period of several years, at a level comparable to (say) the Mediterranean diet as of 2020.\"\n\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n\n* If at any time after the ***date of Jan 1, 2025*** the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n\n* Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n\n****\n*edited 2020-03-05* to change the statement from \"typical person\" to \"some identified and significant population of people.\"", "prediction": "58%"} +{"title": "Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period?", "desc": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\n\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline' scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \n\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\n\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\n\n**Data**\n\n- [Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n\n- [Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).", "prediction": "35%"} +{"title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?", "desc": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\n\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\n\n> We openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\n\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.", "resc": "If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\n\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n\n* Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256\n* Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes\n* Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256\n* Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256\n* Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256\n* Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256\n* Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256\n* Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256\n* Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256\n* Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256\n* Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256", "prediction": "33%"} +{"title": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?", "desc": "", "resc": "In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate.\n\nFor centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html)\n\n> The day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... \"\n\nPeter Singer [wrote](https://www.uvm.edu/rsenr/wfb175/singer.pdf) in 1974,\n\n> Our custom is all the support that the meat industry needs. The decision to cease giving it that support may be difficult, but it is no more difficult than it would have been for a white Southerner to go against the traditions of his society and free his slaves: if we do not change our dietary habits, how can we censure those slaveholders who would not change their own way of living?\n\nMany contemporary thinkers have anticipated a massive ethical shift against the current treatment of animal as property, once tasty artificial meat is developed. If future humans become regretful of our current treatment of animals, will there be an official apology from a government?\n\nThis question resolves positively if a sovereign government (at the level of national, or an international government if one exists at the time) issues a formal apology for the poor treatment of farm animals in the past, specifically in reference to the fact that they were treated as property before January 1st 2200. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\n\nFor clarification, a sovereign government is defined as one that has \"the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over some polity.\" The United Nations does *not* count as a sovereign government.", "prediction": "84%"} +{"title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?", "desc": "", "resc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\n\n> Wild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n\n1. At least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n\n2. Legislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n\n3. There are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n\n4. A protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n\n6. A major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n\n5. Brian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.", "prediction": "67%"} +{"title": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "47%"} +{"title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "43%"} +{"title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?", "desc": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\n\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\",\n\"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".", "resc": "This question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.", "prediction": "39%"} +{"title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\n\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\n\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \n\n***Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time between March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2025, according to credible press reports, or a major cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform.\n\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", "desc": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2050, a scientific consensus is reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus Admins.\n\nFor this question, we exclude any extra-terrestrial life which has been placed outside Earth through intentional or unintentional human activity. Otherwise, it is not necessary for ET life to have a separate origin from Earth life (see the [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia))", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, \"worlds\" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. \n\nThe other names of the many-worlds interpretation include \"the relative state formulation\", \"the Everett interpretation\", and \"the theory of the universal wavefunction.\"\n\nThis question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.\n\n[Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence.", "prediction": "38%"} +{"title": "Will the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the USD fraction of allocated global foreign exchange currencies be below 50% before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14017/usd-foreign-exchange-currency-dominance/)\n* [What will be the United States Dollar's percentage of all currency reserves, as of Q1 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12458/usd-percentage-of-all-reserve-currency-2050q1/)\n\n---\n\nThe IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated *Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves* ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\n\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\n\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\n\n**Will the USD be the dominant global reserve currency in 2050?**\n\nQuestion resolves positively if the **most recently released** percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\n\nQuestion resolves as **ambiguous** the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?", "desc": "", "resc": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \n\n> specimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\n\nbut of course\n\n> That some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\n\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\n*** \"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" ***\n\nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n\n* If at any time after the ***date of Jan 1, 2025*** the community prediction is > 95% or < 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n\n* Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?", "desc": "", "resc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\n\n> Caenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\n\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\n\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience's\nattempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\n\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?\n\nAssume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,\n\n> Has recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\n\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\n\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\nThe group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n\n 1. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuronscience\".\n\n 2. For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n\n 3. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n\n(*Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.*)", "prediction": "33%"} +{"title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?", "desc": "", "resc": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\n\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \n\nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years *after* he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft's political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\n\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\n\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\n\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman's age and bad polling.\n\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\n#### Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\n**Resolves positive** if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term's election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\n\n**Resolves ambiguous** if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).", "prediction": "80%"} +{"title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?", "desc": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\n\n> a brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\n\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \n\nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\n\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\n\n> Rather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you'd rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It's a fixative. On the other hand, if you don't use glutaraldehyde, then you're going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won't get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Alcor offers the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members at any time before January 1, 2030", "prediction": "53%"} +{"title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?", "desc": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\n\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the following companies/organizations ratifies a Windfall Clause before January 1, 2025:\n\n* Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n* Alibaba\n* Amazon\n* Apple\n* Baidu\n* Facebook\n* Microsoft\n* OpenAI\n* Tesla\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?", "desc": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\n\n> It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.", "resc": "A world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\n\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\n\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\n\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.*", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", "desc": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\n\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)", "resc": "Resolves **Yes** if one of these individuals is the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024:\n\n - Donald Trump\n - Donald Trump Jr.\n - Eric Trump\n - Ivanka Trump\n - Tiffany Trump\n - Melania Trump\n - Barron Trump", "prediction": "99%"} +{"title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?", "desc": "", "resc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\n\n> Solar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\n\n> Solar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\n\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \n\nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \n\n***Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?***\n\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the global average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is above 600 parts per million on January 1, 2101, **and** the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). If CO2 concentration remains below 600 PPM, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**; if CO2 concentration is above 600 PPM and mean surface temperatures are above 1.5 Celsius, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there is some significant natural event that reduces mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation.", "prediction": "43%"} +{"title": "Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?", "desc": "In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before January 1, 2036. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By \"related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project\", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\n\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n\n + Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1],[2])\n + Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1])\n + Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3])\n\nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by >5%?\n\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n\n[1]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/\n\n[2]: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/\n\n[3]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?", "desc": "", "resc": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \n \n\nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n\n1. White wins\n\n2. Black wins\n\n3. Forced draw\n\n**If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw?** \n\nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n\n- it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n\n- it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\n\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.", "prediction": "80%"} +{"title": "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?", "desc": "", "resc": "[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [\"to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.\"](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).\n\nThe Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?\n\n**On an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?**\n\nIf the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.\n\nThe question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:\n\n- Harvard ceases to exist.\n- Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down.\n- Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students).\n- The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard.", "prediction": "51%"} +{"title": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?", "desc": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\n\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \n\nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?", "resc": "Resolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \n\nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n\n1. Are you conscious?\n2. Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative?\n\nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.", "prediction": "53%"} +{"title": "By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?", "desc": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.", "resc": "This question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\n\n> By January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\n\n>The prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\n\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n\n--\n\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur)", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?", "desc": "", "resc": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\n\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\n\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\n\n**If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?**\n\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?", "desc": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \n\nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\n\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\n\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively", "prediction": "7%"} +{"title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", "desc": "", "resc": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\n\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\n\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.", "prediction": "36%"} +{"title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?", "desc": "", "resc": "#Context\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\n\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\n#Question and Resolution\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?", "prediction": "60%"} +{"title": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?", "desc": "", "resc": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)):\n\n> George Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\n\n**Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?", "desc": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2040, US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) is less than 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations. An official statement by any one of those organizations is sufficient to resolve the question", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?", "desc": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\n\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\n\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis.", "resc": "GiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n\n- Malaria Consortium\n- Against Malaria Foundation\n- Helen Keller International\n- Deworm the World Initiative\n- SCI Foundation\n- Sightsavers' deworming program[1]\n- END Fund's deworming program[1]\n- GiveDirectly\n\nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\n\nSome clarifications:\n\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\n\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\n\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\n\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\n\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program", "prediction": "36%"} +{"title": "Will global oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?", "desc": "Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. \n\nAccording to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if no year from 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater global oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA.\n \nIt will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. \nIt will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary)", "prediction": "9%"} +{"title": "In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "85%"} +{"title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\n\n**Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \n\nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\n\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n\n- The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity\n- A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati.\n\nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", "desc": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\n\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030", "prediction": "67%"} +{"title": "Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?", "desc": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \n\nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is any nuclear detonation as an act of war between January 1, 2020 and January 1, 2050. Resolution will be by credible media reports. The detonation must be deliberate; accidental, inadvertent, or testing/peaceful detonations will not qualify (see fine print). Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.\n\n*[2021-11-23]: Edited to clarify the definition of \"deliberate\" detonations.*", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?", "desc": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\n\n> longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.", "resc": "An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \n\nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest *or* an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\n\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\n\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before 2300-01-01, this question resolves ambiguously", "prediction": "90%"} +{"title": "Will any science fiction literature originally written in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031?", "desc": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\n\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\n\n(EN ESPAÑOL:)\n\n***¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?***\n\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\n\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.", "resc": "Resolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n\n(EN ESPAÑOL:)\n\n***¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?***\n\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": ">Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\n\n>They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\n\n>This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\n\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\n\n**This question asks:**\n> On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\n\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.", "prediction": "45%"} +{"title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": ">Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\n\n>They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\n\n>This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\n\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\n\n**This question asks:**\n> On 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\n\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.", "prediction": "29%"} +{"title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": ">Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\n\n>They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\n\n>This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\n\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\n\n**This question asks:**\n> On 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\n\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.", "prediction": "44%"} +{"title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": ">Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\n\n>They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\n\n>This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\n\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\n\n**This question asks:**\n> On 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\n\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.", "prediction": "41%"} +{"title": "Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?", "desc": "From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,\n\n> A paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.\n\n> In machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.\n\n> The photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.\n\nThe abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, \n\n> While several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas.", "resc": "This question resolves as **YES** if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nPhotonic tensor cores are said to be \"ubiquitous\" in machine learning by 2030 if all three of the top machine learning cloud computing services offer photonic tensor cores for training models. The top machine learning cloud computing services are taken to the top three services that are yielded by the DuckDuckGo search, \"machine learning cloud computing service\" (If DuckDuckGo is no longer available, the following take their place in order of priority: Google, Bing).", "prediction": "13%"} +{"title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "42%"} +{"title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", "desc": "", "resc": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n\n* Amazon Mechanical Turk workers\n\n* Redditors on /r/samplesize\n\n* A large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n\n* Some other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\n\nasking them \n\n> In your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\n\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \n\nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed *before* the trend is considered to have begun.\n\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is *another* survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\n\n> If your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\n\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "prediction": "29%"} +{"title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?", "desc": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\n\n> LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It's natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it's attention!”\n\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism.", "resc": "Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\n\n> Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\n\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n\nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n\n1. A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \n\n> language model \"state of the art\"\n\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\n\nOR\n\n2. [This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025.\n\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively", "prediction": "80%"} +{"title": "Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom in 2050?", "desc": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\n\nDean Mullen writes,\n\n> Progression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\n\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\n\n> Slaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\n\n> No country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Dean Mullen wins this bet, according to the [Long Now Foundation](http://longbets.org/780/). If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nAccording to the Long Now Foundation, the rules are specified as follows,\n\n> 1. The bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n\n> 2. A slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n\n> 3. The legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01", "prediction": "13%"} +{"title": "At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?", "desc": "", "resc": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\n\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\n\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n\n- [Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n\n- [How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\n\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\n\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\n\n**At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?**\n\n- Resolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n\n- If GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n\n- \"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n\n- If a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n\n- If deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n\n- If GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n- Some of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.", "prediction": "45%"} +{"title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?", "desc": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \n\nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \n\nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \n\n> When I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\n>\n> The tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\n>\n> My own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\n\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\".", "resc": "This question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\")", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?", "desc": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n\n- [The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)\n- [Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)\n- [Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation)\n- [P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)\n- [Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture)\n- [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)\n- [Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap)\n\nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.", "resc": "This question resolves as **YES** if the next Millennium Prize Problem is solved by AI, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\n\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n\n- Creating the AI system.\n- Feeding the system with previously established knowledge.\n- Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI.\n- Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans.\n- Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution.\n\nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.", "prediction": "41%"} +{"title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \n\n\n**Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\n\n>Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\n\nSo the question is: **Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?**\n\n- It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers.", "prediction": "0.1%"} +{"title": "Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?", "desc": "", "resc": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\n\n> a very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\n\n> Because of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\n\n> One such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\n\n> The success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\n\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\n\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\n\n**This question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?** \n\nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n\n* They received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n\n* Half of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n\n* They reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.", "prediction": "23%"} +{"title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n- [When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/)\n- [Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/)\n- [If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/)\n\n----\n\nThe lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783)\n including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\n\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a strong scientific consensus that past or extant extraterrestrial life exists or has existed on Venus before January 1, 2035. If such a consensus is not reached before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve as **No**", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?", "desc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\n\n> Health at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\n\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\n\n> As part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people's health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\n\n> Research shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\n\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\n\n> The validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias & Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including >6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias & Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\n\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\n\n> the prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\n\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).", "resc": "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n\n* Used the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/\n\n* Discontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n\n* Made the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?", "desc": "*Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*\n\n---\n\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\n\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.", "resc": "For this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years", "prediction": "17%"} +{"title": "Will the People's Republic of China annex at least half of Taiwan before 2050?", "desc": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people's armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\n\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the following occur between January 1, 2020 and January 1, 2050:\n\n- There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data.\n- There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.\n- There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?", "desc": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\n\n> roughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) *cm*. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\n\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 longbets.com bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050", "prediction": "12%"} +{"title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/gwp-doubles-in-4-years-vs-1-year-by-2050/)\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/gwp-doubles-in-4-years-vs-1-year-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\nAs of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\n\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\n\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)", "resc": "Resolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\n\nThis question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:\n\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/", "prediction": "36%"} +{"title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", "desc": "", "resc": "*related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/)\n\nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\n\n***Will Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?***\n\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\n\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\n[fine-print]\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation.\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "27%"} +{"title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the UK Prime Minister on January 1, 2030 is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\n\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.", "prediction": "33%"} +{"title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-jan-1-2030/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the UK Prime Minister on January 1, 2030 is a member of the Labour Party.\n\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion (2020 USD) before 2027?", "desc": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\n\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\n\n> I'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\n\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\n\n> By market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\n\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Stripe achieves a $1,000,000,000 valuation (in 2020 USD) at any time before January 1, 2027, according to credible financial media reports.\n\nIf Stripe is acquired before reaching a $1T valuation, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "prediction": "8%"} +{"title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?", "desc": "*This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.*\n\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\n\nIn July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the \"[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)\" [European Citizens' Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project \"[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)\". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.\n\n[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.\n\n* Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship.\n* In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020.\n* In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there.\n* In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate.\n* The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030.\n* In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)).\n* France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients).\n* The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used.\n\nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that \"the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024.", "resc": "This question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. \n \nIn the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?", "desc": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n\n\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.", "resc": "A credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?", "desc": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \n\nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n> “including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\n\nThe [California Governor's office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n\n> “The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California's carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California's plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \n\nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \n\nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.", "resc": "Resolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor's Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \n\nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?", "desc": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\n\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any US Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before January 1, 2030.", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?", "desc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\n\n> A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\n\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\n\n> widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.", "resc": "A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\n\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise", "prediction": "65%"} +{"title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", "desc": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\n\n>At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\n\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \n\nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\n\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033", "prediction": "45%"} +{"title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?", "desc": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world's lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\n\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \n\nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \n\nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\n\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\n> \"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\n\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\n\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\n> \"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\n\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \n\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison", "prediction": "52%"} +{"title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?", "desc": "Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\n\nJeff McAulay argued,\n\n> Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\n\nStephen Zoepf countered,\n\n> I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.", "resc": "If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question will resolve as **Yes**. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question will resolve as **No**", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", "desc": "", "resc": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\n\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n\n> 1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n\n> 2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n\n> 3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n\n> 4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\n\nStephen W Snow countered,\n\n> My reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\n\n**Will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?**\n\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?", "desc": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \n\nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\n\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\n\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading)), and their prison sentence begins between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026.\n\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\n\nAn executive will be eigible in this question if they are employed by a company that was listed in any of these major indicies at any time in 2021 or later, even if subsequently delisted:\n\n* S&P500\n* FTSE100\n* DAX40\n* CAC40\n* FTSE MIB\n* Nikkei 22", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", "desc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\n\n> The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\n\n> For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\n\n> A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\n\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively", "prediction": "45%"} +{"title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "desc": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\n\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that's not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?", "desc": "", "resc": "Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).\n\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\n\n> U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the \"low hanging fruit has been picked.\" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the \"s-curve\" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)\n\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\n\n> We have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.\n\n***Will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?***\n\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.", "prediction": "48%"} +{"title": "Will online poker be dead on January 1, 2031?", "desc": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\n\n>Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold'em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm's Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars' worth of computing resources to train.\n\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\n\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n\n>“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\n\nAccording to https://www.pokerscout.com/, as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if on January 1, 2031, there are fewer than two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1,000 cash players online at some point in the month of December 2030, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes.", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?", "desc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\n\n> Before, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.", "resc": "For the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n\n* The losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if thesaurus.com lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n\n* The losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n\n* Fewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden's win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n\n* A survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\n\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.", "prediction": "54%"} +{"title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?", "desc": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\n\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\n\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\n\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\n\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\n\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing before 2027?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "0.1%"} +{"title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economics be awarded for MMT before 2041?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "71%"} +{"title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?", "desc": "Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if all of the following conditions are met before January 1, 2031:\n\n- The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked.\n- While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches.\n- All of these deaths occur in any US state(s) (including DC).", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "74%"} +{"title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", "desc": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\n\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)", "resc": "This prediction resolves ***positive*** if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and ***negative*** if one does not", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?", "desc": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if on January 20, 2025, at noon EST, there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n- [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\n- [Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/)\n\n----\n\n[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n\n> - when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n\n> - to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n\n> - or to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\n\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\n\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US federal government invokes the Insurrection Act at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025. No additional criteria are necessary for this question to resolve positively.", "prediction": "6%"} +{"title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?", "desc": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \n\nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries.", "resc": "Anything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. \n\nThis question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.\n\n*\"Practically demonstrated\" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out", "prediction": "4%"} +{"title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?", "desc": "", "resc": "*previous Metaculus questions:*\n\n* *[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)*\n\n* *[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)*\n\n\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) \\( \\zeta(s) \\) all have real part equal to \\( 1/2 \\). The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers \\( -2, -4, -6, \\ldots \\), which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function *other than* these trivial zeroes had real part equal to \\( 1/2 \\).\n\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic \\( \\pi(x) = \\textrm{Li}(x) + O(\\sqrt{x} \\log x) \\) for the prime counting function \\( \\pi(x) \\). It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\n\n***Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the *disproof* of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.", "prediction": "92%"} +{"title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?", "desc": "Scotland is one of the UK's four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \n\nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\n\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a referendum held in Scotland regarding Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom, and this referendum is held before May 3, 2024. This referendum may be an \"advisory\" referendum; that is, it is not necessary for the referendum to have any legally binding effect.\n\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government", "prediction": "0.1%"} +{"title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", "desc": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/)\n\n----\n\nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\n\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\n\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\n\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\n\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\n\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an event or series of events that begins between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale (with that classification being issued before January 1, 2031), by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council", "prediction": "22%"} +{"title": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?", "desc": "GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty Global empire. \n\nAndrew Neil, its chair, will [host a prime-time show](https://variety.com/2021/tv/global/gb-news-uk-right-wing-fox-news-andrew-neil-1234890375/). Other hires include Nick Ferrari, who is best known as a presenter on LBC, a spoken-word station. They have also hired Julia Hartley-Brewer and Dan Wootton - both from talkRADIO, another speech station. \n\nDespite being trailed as a [British Fox News](https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/gb-news-news-channel-andrew-neil-b900143.html), it will need to stick to the UK's strict impartiality rules and will be regulated by Ofcom, the telecoms regulator. \n\nThe market has not proved lucrative, especially compared to [the situation in the US](https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/tuesday-jan-26-scoreboard-fox-news-climbs-to-no-1-in-prime-time/469277/). \n\nSky News, perhaps the best model for GB News to emulate, has been broadcasting since 1989 and it managed to \"reach\" 24 per cent of British people over [a four-week spell](https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary-new/). But even they only manage to pick up 1 per cent of the average daily minutes of viewing.", "resc": "GB News will be deemed to be broadcasting if a TV station with the brand of \"GB News\" airs more than six hours of content per day over the Freeview network beyond January 1 2025. \n\nThe ownership of the channel should not be deemed relevant. If the brand changes, it will deemed to exist - so long as the station continues to broadcast and so long as its name, as listed on the Freeview electronic programme guide (EPG), still has the words \"GB News\" in the channel title.\n\nThe authoritative version of the EPG will be the standard text-only version of the EPG accessible to British Freeview viewers by pressing the programme guide button. There is an [online version](https://www.freeview.co.uk/tv-guide) - which is the same, but it currently uses graphics in place of channel names, which might create ambiguity on the naming question", "prediction": "49%"} +{"title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?", "desc": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\n\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \n\nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \n\nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\n\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.", "resc": "This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).", "prediction": "33%"} +{"title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", "desc": "", "resc": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \n\nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\n\n***Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?***\n\nThis will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).", "prediction": "14%"} +{"title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", "desc": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\n\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\n\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\n\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\n\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n\n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the use of the whip is banned for any Melbourne Cup between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2027, even if the ban is rescinded in any future Melbourne Cup.", "prediction": "49%"} +{"title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", "desc": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \n\nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \n\nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"", "resc": "The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\n\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\n\n***Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?***\n\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", "desc": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by Congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate receives more than 269 votes.\n\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\n\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in Congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbency advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a candidate from the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) Party receives the most votes in the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)) in the [2024 US Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election). It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the votes, or when Congress selects the President in the case a candidate does not receive a majority.", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?", "desc": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\n\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n\n1. Genetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n\n2. Is used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n\n3. Without their consent", "prediction": "74%"} +{"title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?", "desc": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\n\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:", "resc": "This question resolves positively if:\n\n1. A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released,\n2. Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and\n3. In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively.", "prediction": "41%"} +{"title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland before 2031?", "desc": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\n\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\n\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n\n * danger to the life or health of the mother\n * high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus\n * suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest\n\nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\n\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\n\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\n\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) is at least 11,100, according to statistics by Polish government agencies.\n\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\n\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous", "prediction": "56%"} +{"title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", "desc": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\n\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately \\(10^{-22}\\) seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\n\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?", "resc": "This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma", "prediction": "51%"} +{"title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of \"weak\" Artificial General Intelligence?", "desc": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps ) is an introductory video.", "resc": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before the public demonstration of \"weak\" artificial general intelligence.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"weak\" AGI will be defined as meeting the qualifications in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), the terms of which are reproduced in the fine print below.", "prediction": "1.5%"} +{"title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?", "desc": "", "resc": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\n\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\n\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\n\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\n\n***Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\n\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop < 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit projected created by The Boring Company using Tesla Motors vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers with testing using automated systems [planned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/) later on in 2021. Determination of autonomous operation will use criteria similar to this [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/).\n\nThe LVCC project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment. This question will determine if such a feat is being replicated.\n\n**Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop <2030?**\n\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2030, The Boring Company page indicates two autonomous transit system projects completed outside the Las Vegas Metro area with more than 15 miles each of Tunnels. Each system must demonstrate carrying more than 1000 passengers per day and operate autonomously for over 30 days.\n\nOperation should be supported by press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Washington Post or another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) posted to the discussion section below. If no such articles are posted, this question resolves as no.", "prediction": "44%"} +{"title": "Will annual US inflation reach 100% in any year before 2050?", "desc": "[Hyperinflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation) events have happened before in a number of countries.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers ([CPI-U](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL)) has an annual growth rate of at least 100% for any full calendar year before January 1, 2050.\n\nIf the US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) does not report complete data in the 2020 to 2050 period, another credible source may be selected by Metaculus, or the question may resolve as **Ambiguous** at their discretion", "prediction": "6%"} +{"title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?", "desc": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\n\n> a hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\n\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\n\n> a form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n\nHowever,\n\n> dark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\n\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between \\(10^{14}\\)-\\(10^{19}\\) kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\n\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.", "prediction": "7%"} +{"title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "desc": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\n\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\n\n> Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\n\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\n\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\n\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).", "resc": "For the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n\n1. The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n\n2. The patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\n\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\n\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "prediction": "61%"} +{"title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", "desc": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\n\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\n\n> Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\n\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\n\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\n\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).", "resc": "For the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n\n1. The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n\n2. The patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\n\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\n\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "prediction": "83%"} +{"title": "Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "desc": "*related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/)\n\nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.", "resc": "This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", "desc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\n\n> The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\n\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\n\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions.\n\nIf this has not happened before January 1, 2050, this question will resolve as **No**", "prediction": "9%"} +{"title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?", "desc": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\n\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).", "resc": "An official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on gov.uk\n\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\n\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n\n- Number of floors\n\n- Plot us", "prediction": "57%"} +{"title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "desc": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\n\nAccording to its website:\n\n> MIRI's mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\n\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\n\n> At the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI's leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI's research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \n\nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\n\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \n\nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\n\n[fine-print]\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Will any part of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", "desc": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\n\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\n\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2075, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state", "prediction": "60%"} +{"title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?", "desc": "The [Irish Reunification movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland) has existed in some form since Ireland was partitioned into two countries in 1921. Ireland is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), a member of the United Kingdom, and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\n\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\".", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification with Ireland before January 1, 2030, 12PM GMT", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?", "desc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),\n\n> Seasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.\n\n> Proponents say seasteads can \"provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship.\" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.\n\n> No one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.\n\n> As an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous \"seazone\" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.\n\n> The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria", "prediction": "19%"} +{"title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?", "desc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\n\n> An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\n\n> The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n\n> [...]\n\n> Dominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\n\n> Tabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence before January 1, 2035. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n\n* Its owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n\n* Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n\n* A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being delete", "prediction": "72%"} +{"title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", "desc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\n\n> The police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\n\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\n\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\n\n> According to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\n\n> In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens' arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen's arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens' arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens' arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect's guilt is established by investigation after the fact.", "resc": "This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.\n\n*30 October 2021 clarification: Resolution text changed from*\n> \"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\" \n\n*to*\n\n> \"In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of ANY and ALL taxpayer funded and government managed police department(s) in that city.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", "desc": "", "resc": "*related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/)\n\nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\n\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\n\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\n\n**Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?**\n\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?", "desc": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\n\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the\nelectromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\n\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\n\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of \\(4.6^{+7.4}_{-2.7}\\) SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\n\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2050. This time period refers to the date when the supernova has been observed, not when the supernova itself occurs (which may be many hundreds of years in the past)", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman before 2046?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\n\n----\n\nFrom a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\n\n> The end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan's research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn't the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\n\n> The chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don't breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\n\n> Swan's book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can't continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It's a global existential crisis.” That's not hyperbole. That's just science.\n\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the annual [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 in any year between 2021 to 2045 (inclusive)", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?", "desc": "", "resc": "Tennis has appeared the Olympics [on-and-off](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_Summer_Olympics) throughout Olympic history. It was most recently added to the program as a full sport in 1988.\n\nTennis has appeared 18 times since the start of the modern games in 1896.\n\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will tennis remain part of the Olympics in 2044?\". The answer given was \"No\".\n\n***Will the Tennis be part of the Olympics in 2044?***\n\nThis question resolves positive if there is a Tennis event in the 2044 Summer Olympic programme.\n\nIf Tennis is a demonstration sport, this resolves positive.\nIf there is no 2044 Summer Olympics, this question resolves based on the Summer Olympics closest in time to 2044-08-01. If there is no Summer Olympics within a 10 years either side, it resolves ambiguous.", "prediction": "87%"} +{"title": "Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?", "desc": "[Serena Williams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams) is widely considered the greatest Tennis player of all time. She has won 23 Grand Slams in her career. 1 short of Margaret Court's record.\n\nHowever, she is starting to get older turning 40 in 2021 and she's slipped away from the #1 ranking. She last won a slam in 2017, although she's reached 4 slam finals since then.\n\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Last year, each of you said you expected Serena to win another major. Do you want to change your answer?\". The answer given was \"Probably not\" (ie probably she doesn't win another one).", "resc": "This question resolves positive if Serena Williams wins a grand slam after 2021-04-01.\n\nThis question resolve negative if Serena Williams stops playing Tennis before winning another grand slam", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031?", "desc": "Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This happened most recently following [Roger Federer](https://twitter.com/rogerfederer/status/1252922285096423424)'s tweet in 2020:\n\n> Just wondering…..am I the only one thinking that now is the time for men's and women's tennis to be united and come together as one?\n\n\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will ATP & WTA merge in next decade?\". The answer given was \"No\".", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if both men and women play as part of one tour with one tour organiser in top competitive Tennis. It will also resolve as **Yes** if not all tournaments are mixed (ie if some currently all-female or all-male tournaments are part of the tour, that doesn't trigger negative resolution as long as the overarching tour organiser is one body)\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if men and women play as part of two separate tours on the basis of gender.\n\nIn the event that it is unclear (eg the tennis tour fractures into multiple tours (WTA, ATP, mixed tour)) we will ask [Jeff Sackmann's](http://www.tennisabstract.com/) opinion and resolve at his discretion. (In the event he says it's unclear / is uncontactable / unwilling to decide, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "prediction": "45%"} +{"title": "If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?", "desc": "Consider figure 15 from [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.14701.pdf#page=18).\n\nSome people (arguably the authors of this paper) predict that as we scale models past GPT-3's size (the 10^11 parameter learning curve, models with parameter count X trained on X elapsed tokens will score close to the L(D) line at X elapsed tokens.\n\nWe are interested in whether instead the trendline will \"plateau\" or at least be substantially slower than the line L(D) by the end of the next 3 orders of magnitude of parameter count. For the sake of specificity, let's say substantially slower = less than half as steep as L(D) on this graph.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the relevant experiment is done and reported (extending this graph, or providing equivalent data) and the slope of the learning curve for the 10^14 parameter model around 10^14 data points (Say, from 10^12 to 10^14) is less than half as steep as the slope of L(D). It resolves negatively if instead the slope is at least half as steep as L(D).\n\nThis question also resolves positively (or negatively) if it becomes uncontroversial what would have happened if the experiment had been done. For example, maybe other experiments will provide much more evidence about neural net scaling trends in general, such that it will be easy to calculate what would happen with this one in particular.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if by 2050 no one has performed the experiment AND there is no consensus about what would have happened if someone had.\n\nThe Metaculus moderators are the judge of final resort for determining whether and how to resolve this question.\n\nFor more context, see the comment threads below (Search for \"It's a big deal.\")", "prediction": "29%"} +{"title": "By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?", "desc": "", "resc": "For purposes of this question, deaths due to bioweapons, electricity grid failures, etc. don't count. Roughly, we are interested in \"deaths due to kinetic attacks.\" The 9/11 attacks count because ramming planes into buildings to make them collapse is kinetic. Were someone to hack into the FDA and mess things up so as to delay vaccine approval, thereby causing tens of thousands of deaths, that would not count.\n\nThe attackers don't need to be the military of a nation-state; terrorist groups count and coalitions/alliances also count.\n\nHowever, the attackers need to be \"part of the same team\" in some sense. Otherwise, this would resolve positive simply in virtue of the US annual homicide rate! If there were a series of race riots, insurrections, or acts of domestic terrorism linked together under one banner (e.g. white supremacy, antigovernment, or antipolice) that would count.\n\nYes, this means that (contrary to what the headline question would suggest) if the USA gets involved in several independent small-scale wars, the US casualties from which total more than 10,000 in a year, that would not count", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?", "desc": "Recent [controversy over state election laws](https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-new-election-law-means-for-voters-and-officials-explainer-2021-3) has caused some Democrats to be concerned that Republicans intend to use their political power in state governments to distort future elections in their favor. One commentator [recently suggested](https://web.archive.org/web/20210329024002/https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1376161115244204037):\n\n>\"If a Democrat wins a GOP-controlled swing state in 2024 … there's a very good chance the victory isn't certified\"\n\nElection certification is the process in which states [confirm the election results](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/11/13/how-election-certification-works-when-will-2020-be-certified/) and declare them to be the official results. Typically states set their own deadlines for election certification, which in 2020 [ranged from November 5th to December 8th for the presidential contest](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020) (several states appear to have no deadline), but federal law provides a [\"safe harbor\" deadline](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/08/942288226/bidens-victory-cemented-as-states-reach-deadline-for-certifying-vote-tallies) by which states must formally certify their election results in order for the certified results to be federally recognized as governing the outcome. The \"safe harbor\" deadline is set by [3 U.S. Code § 5](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/5) and [3 U.S. Code § 7](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/7) which sets the safe harbor deadline as six days prior to the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December of the election year.", "resc": "The question will resolve positively if any state (or DC) does not certify their results by the \"safe harbor\" deadline. The \"safe harbor\" deadline for the 2024 presidential election will be December 10th", "prediction": "17%"} +{"title": "Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?", "desc": "If you look through Wikipedia's [List of wars and anthropogenic disasters by death toll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll), China features highly across a range of different disaster types, higher than India; However, both India and China have had roughly comparable population sizes for as [long as we have data for it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population#World_Population_Estimates,_20_Countries_and_Regional_Totals,_0%E2%80%932000_AD_(in_thousands)).", "resc": "Resolves positively if an anthropogenic disaster resulting in the death of at least 10,000,000 people occurs in China before one happens in India", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?", "desc": "The [Standard Model of particle physics](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Standard_Model) is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions [in a compact way](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Mathematical_formulation_of_the_Standard_Model#/Lagrangian_formalism).\n\nOne of its features is lepton universality, which implies that the electron, the muon, and the tau particle couple with the same strength to the particles responsible for the electroweak force.\n\nA [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11769) from the LHCb collaboration studying the decay of \\(B\\) mesons has found evidence against lepton universality at the \\(3.1\\sigma\\) level.\n\nAnomalies like this one [have happened before](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/750_GeV_diphoton_excess) in the LHC, so [it's not clear](https://resonaances.blogspot.com/2021/03/thoughts-on-rk.html) the result will survive new incoming data. The gold standard for discovery in particle physics is conventionally taken to be \\(5\\sigma\\).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if a peer reviewed paper is published before 2025/12/31 claiming to have found evidence at the \\(5\\sigma\\) level or greater that lepton universality is violated in nature", "prediction": "27%"} +{"title": "Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy?", "desc": "", "resc": "A [meal replacement](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Meal_replacement) is\n\n> a drink, bar, soup, etc. intended as a substitute for a solid food meal, usually with controlled quantities of calories and nutrients.\n\nMeal replacements may be consumed instead of traditional foodstuffs for several reasons, like dietary restrictions, price, and convenience.\n\nA class of meal replacements claiming to be nutritionally complete has gained popularity over the last decade. They are consumed as shakes and sold either in powder form or pre-mixed with water. Prime examples include [Soylent](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Soylent_(meal_replacement)) and [Huel](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Huel). A more comprehensive list can be found on [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/).\n\nDue to their novelty, it is unclear whether they're in fact nutritionally complete, as there could be unknown unknowns in human nutrition. Moreover, no empirical studies have established the safety of using them as one's main or sole food source over the long-term.\n\n***Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy before 2030?***\n\nThis question resolves positive if, before 2030/1/1, the FDA or the EFSA do any of the following:\n\n1. Issuing official guidelines stating that a healthy diet should not rely on meal replacements of this kind alone. It should be clear from the phrasing that they're referring to Soylent-like products specifically, i.e. products consumed as shakes and claiming to be nutritionally complete.\n\n2. Banning an ingredient or manufacturing procedure currently used by any of the products listed in the fine print.\n\n[fine-print]\nList of products, taken from [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/):\n\n- Soylent Powder/Drink\n- Huel Powder/Ready-to-drink\n- Queal Steady\n- Jimmy Joy's Plenny Shake/Drink\n- ManaPowder/ManaDrink\n- Saturo Powder/Drink\n\nIf additional products are listed by blendrunner.com in this category, they will not be considered for the purposes of this question.\n\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "32%"} +{"title": "Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?", "desc": "[Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world. \n\nWhilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised \"beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!\". We interpret that to mean 2030.", "resc": "Resolution will be based on the official [NBA rulebook](https://official.nba.com/rule-no-1-court-dimensions-equipment/). If there is no official NBA rulebook available, we will defer to Wikipedia or any other general news sourc", "prediction": "0.9%"} +{"title": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?", "desc": "The EU corona recovery package or the [Next Generation EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_EU) COVID-19 recovery plan, introduced for the first time large scale amounts of common EU bonds issued by European Commission (\"coronabonds\"). Previously, proposals to introduce such \"[eurobonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobond_(eurozone))\" had been opposed several EU countries since 2011. The NGEU package allows the European Commission to borrow €750 bn euros on behalf of European Union. Total of €672.5 bn are to distributed as grants and loans via [Recovery and Resilience Facility](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-recovery-plan/) and rest by other programmes.\n\nIn addition to NGEU, the commission also introduced in October 2020 a €100 bn [SURE](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) [instrument](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) (\"The European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency\"). Prior to NGEU, the Commission has issued bonds to provide [assistance and loans](https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower_en) to some EU countries, but on much smaller scale.\n\nCurrently the NGEU programme is supposed to be temporary, with net borrowing activity ending in 2026, but some have called for strengthening the EU fiscal union by making the NGEU or similar mechanisms permanent.", "resc": "Resolves positively if European Commission, or other body or institution representing the EU, will borrow more than €50 000 000 000 capital (net) from markets, in 2018 prices.\n\nOrganizations created by separate treaties between EU countries, such the [European Stability Mechanism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism), do not not count. The EIB and the EFSF are also excluded.", "prediction": "77%"} +{"title": "Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?", "desc": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. As part of these competitions there are many different events (Men's and Women's Singles and Doubles, Mixed Doubles, Boys and Girls Singles and Doubles etc).\n\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will mixed doubles be part of all four Slams in 2040?\". The answer given was \"No\".", "resc": "This question will resolve according to whether or not all four slam events hold a mixed doubles competition with elite players. we define a mixed doubles competition to be an elite competition if it includes:\n\n* at least 4 teams with men in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking)\n* at least 4 teams with women in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking)\n* at least 10 teams in total (ie more than straight quarterfinals, but byes in the first round are acceptable) \n\n\nIf the list of tournaments which are considered a slam changes, we will limit the list to the four which most resemble the historic 4.\n\nIn the event no slams take place in 2040, we will resolve based the nearest year with earlier taking preference, ie 2039, 2041, 2038, 2042, et", "prediction": "73%"} +{"title": "Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?", "desc": "", "resc": "All of Korea had been unified as a single state for centuries. After World War II and beginning in the Cold War, Korea was divided into two countries along the 38th parallel (now the Korean Demilitarized Zone). In 1950, North Korea invaded the South, beginning the Korean War, which ended in stalemate in 1953. \n\nEven after the end of the Korean War, [reunification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification) proved a challenge as the two countries became increasingly diverged at a steady pace. However, in the late 2010s, relations between North and South Korea warmed somewhat, beginning with North Korea's participation at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. In 2019, South Korean president Moon Jae-in proposed reunification of the two divided states in the Korean peninsula by 2045.\n\n***Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045?***\n\nThe question resolves positively if either:\n\n+ North Korea and South Korea (or their respective descendants if they change name) merge.\n\nor\n\n+ North Korea, South Korea or both (or their respective descendants if they change name) stop existing, and an entity (possibly the one that's left) controls 90%+ of the current North Korea + South Korea landmass and has its capital on that territory.\n\nResolution will be by reputable source that either has happened, as judged by Metaculus mods/admins.", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?", "desc": "Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.\n\n[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \n\nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\n\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant's DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\n\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n\n> “Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a peer-reviewed publication or consumer product demonstrates a process that successfully produces de-allergenized wheat (for any vareity or type of wheat). The wheat that is produced must have < 10% of typical wheat content of one these allergens: albumin, globulin, gliadin or gluten, and show a statistically significant reduced or prevented immunological response. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption). This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be published before January 1, 2030.\n\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). Metaculus Admins will decide, at their discretion, whether the reduction in allergens is sufficiently convincing", "prediction": "43%"} +{"title": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized before 2030?", "desc": "Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.\n\nSoy remains one of the most popular plant based alternatives because it contains [high levels of protein](https://wpcmed.com/soy-a-healthy-protein-alternative/), and like animal proteins, is a complete protein, meaning it contains all the essential amino acids needed for the human body. Soy based products like tofu and soy milk also contain less saturated fat than their meat and dairy counterparts, making it an ideal substitute for traditional animal products. \n\nSoy became [popular as an alternative protein source](https://www.foodprocessing.com/articles/2020/alternative-proteins-the-problems-and-the-promise/) by Atkins in the mid 20th century as the main ingredient in TVP (texturized vegetable protein).\n\n> “The original textured vegetable protein or TVP, which we helped to formulate and is a trademark of ADM, was invented by William T. Atkinson in the 1950s and 1960s,” says Schuh. Atkinson developed a process to “texturize” soy flour into a meat-like substance using an extruder with mechanical shear and heat, combined with the injection of water. “The original TVP was a fibrous, spongy material used as a stand-alone meat alternative product, as well a nutritional extender in meat and poultry products to reduce costs and increase protein content.”\n\nWhile soy is still one of the [most common alternative protein sources](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/alternative-proteins-the-race-for-market-share-is-on) for plant based meat, like the Impossible Burger, its presence as one of the ‘big eight' allergens make it difficult for some consumers to purchase and eat these products, leading to a rise in popularity for pea protein alternatives.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a peer-reviewed publication demonstrates that a process successfully produces de-allergenized soybeans (for any variety or type of soybean). The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption). This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be published before January 1, 2030.\n\nThe relevant process must eliminate a sufficient portion of allergens so as to successfully prevent the immune response to at least one of the proteins: [Gly m Bd 60K, Gly m Bd 30K and Gly m Bd 28K](https://reeis.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/0212493-development-of-hypoallergenic-fermented-soybean-products.html). \n\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). Metaculus Admins will decide, at their discretion, whether the reduction in allergens is sufficiently convincing", "prediction": "28%"} +{"title": "Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?", "desc": "Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.\n\nAccording to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by January 1, 2028, according to credible financial media reports.\n\n- This question will resolve positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n\n- Positive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n\n- If any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question will resolve positively", "prediction": "22%"} +{"title": "Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu before 2027?", "desc": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if McDonald's is the first global Quick Service Restaurant to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu in any location before January 1, 2027. This question will resolve as **No** if no QSR offers cultivated meat by January 1, 2027, or another QSR offers cultivated meat before McDonald's.\n\nFor this question, \"global Quick Service Restaurants\" include:\n\n>McDonald's, Subway, KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King, Domino's, Hunt Brothers Pizza, Taco Bell, Wendy's, and Hardee's. \n\nA restaurant is said to feature a cultivated meat product on its menu, if, in at least one location anywhere in the world that is open to the public, any member of the public is able to order the product, without requiring a reservation. \n\nThe product must be for sale, and free samples do not count. \"Pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) will not count toward resolution.\n\nAny product and any meat may count for positive resolution (nuggets, patties, hotdogs, and so forth). The relevant meat substitute must contain at least 25% cultivated meat by weight", "prediction": "16%"} +{"title": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?", "desc": "Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.\n\nUS farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&progcode=total&yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \n\nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)). In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the three-year simple moving average of the total livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) falls below $150M/year before January 1, 2030. The [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=livestock) database will be checked on June 1, 2031 to account for lags in reporting or revising the data. The three-year simple moving average in any year calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of the subsidy totals in that year and the previous two years.\n\nYearly totals for previous years are as follows:\n\n- 2015 $1,320,274,264\n- 2016 $449,041,696\n- 2017 $447,720,097\n- 2018 $677,555,047\n- 2019 $673,865,626\n- 2020 $326,246,32", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "On April 18, 2021, 12 top European football clubs agreed to join the [European Super League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Super_League), a breakaway league separate from the usual organizational structure of association football. \n\nIt received a great deal of backlash from stakeholders:\n\n* [Gary Neville is disgusted](https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1383927715607154691)\n* [Gary Linekar is disgusted](https://www.bbc.com/sport/av/football/56807114)\n* [Boris Johnson promises \"to make sure the goverment does everything it can to make sure it doesn't go ahead\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-european-super-league-b1833689.html)\n\nOn the other hand, publicly traded football clubs ([Manchester United](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MANU/chart?p=MANU), [Juventus](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/JUVE.MI/chart?p=JUVE.MI)) have seen their share prices soar as this is generally forecasted as being extremely lucrative for the clubs involved.\n\nWhilst it appears that the ESL is dead in the water, the clubs involved have all pulled back, there is still a lot of speculation as to whether a breakaway league will still happen given the financial incentives.\n\n***Will there be an breakaway European soccer League match before 2030?***\n\nAny association football matches played under the structure of a breakaway group unrelated to the usual structure of football in Europe, which features at least 5 of the following big clubs, and teams from at least 3 UEFA countries (not all countries need to be from this list, 5 teams from this list from 2 countries and an additional team from a 3rd country would be acceptable):\n\n* Arsenal FC\n* Chelsea FC\n* Liverpool FC\n* Manchester City FC\n* Manchester United FC\n* Tottenham Hotspur FC\n* Inter Milan\n* Juventus FC\n* AC Milan\n* Atlético Madrid\n* FC Barcelona\n* Real Madrid CF\n* Bayern Munich\n* Borussia Dortmund\n* Bayer Leverkusen\n* Schalke 04\n* PSG\n* Lyon\n* Ajax", "prediction": "22%"} +{"title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?", "desc": "In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \n\nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\n\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n\n* Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username\n* maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged\n* maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n* Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \n\nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).", "resc": "This theory will be considered confirmed if it is stated by Ghislaine Maxwell or her representatives, or reported by police, prosecutors or reliable witnesses that Maxwell either is maxwellhill specifically or that she was an active and influential Reddit user (or words to that effect). \n\nThere could also be an accumulation of evidence over time. If respectable news organisations like the New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian or Sydney Morning Herald report that Maxwell is or is likely to be maxwellhill, that will also suffice", "prediction": "12%"} +{"title": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?", "desc": "The [Simon Institute for Longterm Governance](https://www.simoninstitute.ch/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eKn7TDxMSSsoHhcap/introducing-the-simon-institute-for-longterm-governance-si) institution with the hope of bridging the gap between theory and practice in longtermist policy-making.", "resc": "For the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used", "prediction": "51%"} +{"title": "Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?", "desc": "The [Nonlinear Fund](http://www.nonlinearfund.org/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fX8JsabQyRSd7zWiD/introducing-the-nonlinear-fund-ai-safety-research-incubation) incubator, aiming to \"research, fund, and seed AI Safety interventions\".", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Nonlinear Fund has 9 or more full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026, according to public information given by the Nonlinear Fund. For this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours or more per week, without including volunteers. The question will resolve as **No** if the project has clearly been abandoned or it is determined there are 8 or fewer full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026", "prediction": "77%"} +{"title": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?", "desc": "The [Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research](https://www.forethought.org/about-us) is a recently launched think tank led by William MacAskill, which \"aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much as possible\". It has recently been [hiring](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ndEZwLXN8ynLdRkxR/the-forethought-foundation-is-hiring)", "resc": "For the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used", "prediction": "69%"} +{"title": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?", "desc": "On April 22, 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.\n\n[A statement from the White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/) writes:\n\n> Today, President Biden will announce a new target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution in 2030 – building on progress to-date and by positioning American workers and industry to tackle the climate crisis.\n\nAccording to the [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions](https://www.c2es.org/content/u-s-emissions/), net emissions in 2017 were 5,743 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents, 12% lower than in 2005. Net emissions in 2020 were 21% below 2005 levels and 10.3% lower than 2019 levels, according to a preliminary report by [Rhodium Group](https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/), but emission levels are expected to rise in 2021 as pandemic lockdown measures are reduced.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if there is *any* year between 2022 and 2030 (inclusive) in which the US levels of economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of CO₂ equivalents) is at least 50.00% lower than 2005 levels, according to a reliable source that is not heavily disputed by other reliable sources. The question resolves negatively if all reliable reports (that Metaculus users can find) say that the US net emissions in each year between 2022 and 2030 were greater than 50% of 2005 levels, and there is at least one reliable report about net emission levels in 2030. (If there is no report about net emission levels in 2030, we should wait for one rather than resolving this question ambiguously.)\n\nIf the US gains or loses territories between now and 2030, ideally only the net emissions from the current territories should be considered", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "Democrats have recently been increasingly interested in the structure of the Senate and the [disadvantages they believe it confers to the electoral prospects of Democrats](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/30/20997046/constitution-electoral-college-senate-popular-vote-trump). On May 5th, 2021, Dylan Matthews, a journalist at Vox, [posted a tweet](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445) that made the following claim (archived version [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20210505170845/https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445)):\n\n>I don't think Congressional leadership has really internalized that if they don't admit DC and PR, they'll lose the Senate until at least 2030\n\n***If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2031?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n* Both Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not officially admitted as new states before December 31, 2029, *and* \n\n* the Republican Party controls the Senate from the beginning of the congressional term in 2023 to the end of the congressional term in 2031 ([the 118th through 121st congresses, inclusive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congresses)).\n\nIf Republicans do not control the Senate at any point during that period, this question will resolve as **No**. If both Washington DC and Puerto Rico are officially admitted to the United States on or before December 31, 2029, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 (2021 USD) before 2121?", "desc": "In a column for the New York times in 2018, Paul Krugman [wrote](https://archive.is/sU6eS#selection-443.0-458.0),\n\n> To some extent gold is in a similar situation. Most gold just sits there, possessing value because people believe it possesses value. But gold does have real-world uses, both for jewelry and for things like filling teeth, that provide a weak but real tether to the real economy.\n\n> Cryptocurrencies, by contrast, have no backstop, no tether to reality. Their value depends entirely on self-fulfilling expectations – which means that total collapse is a real possibility. If speculators were to have a collective moment of doubt, suddenly fearing that Bitcoins were worthless, well, Bitcoins would become worthless.\n\n> I think it's more likely than not, partly because of the gap between the messianic rhetoric of crypto and the much more mundane real possibilities. That is, there might be a potential equilibrium in which Bitcoin (although probably not other cryptocurrencies) remain in use mainly for black market transactions and tax evasion, but that equilibrium, if it exists, would be hard to get to from here: once the dream of a blockchained future dies, the disappointment will probably collapse the whole thing.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if before 2121 and after 2020, the price of bitcoin at one point fell below $10 per bitcoin (in 2021 dollars). If dollars cease to exist, $10 in 2021 dollars is taken to be an amount of currency with the same purchasing power as $10 of 2021 dollars. Otherwise, it resolves negatively", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will anyone be convicted in the US for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will it be legal to pay taxes in the US using bitcoin before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7509/us-taxes-payable-in-bitcoin-by-2030/)\n\n----", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if anyone in the United States is convicted, in any US court, for the possession of Bitcoin, before January 1, 2060.\n\nThe charge must explicitly be for the possession of Bitcoin, not, for instance, performing an illegal action where the use of bitcoin is involved (such as buying or selling illegal drugs). Similarly, tax avoidance due to recieving payments in bitcoin or earning capital gains is not included in the resolution", "prediction": "6%"} +{"title": "Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?", "desc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1),\n\n> Sputnik 1 was the first artificial Earth satellite. It was launched into an elliptical low Earth orbit by the USSR on 4 October 1957 as part of the Soviet space program. It orbited for three weeks before its batteries died and then orbited silently for two months before it fell back into the atmosphere on the 4th January 1958.\n\n> [...]\n\n> The satellite's unanticipated success precipitated the American Sputnik crisis and triggered the Space Race, part of the Cold War. The launch was the beginning of a new era of political, military, technological and scientific developments.\n\nAn \"AI Sputnik moment\" would, by contrast, be a sudden understanding by the general public that artificial intelligence is worth taking extremely seriously, perhaps triggering a [similar AI arms race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence_arms_race).", "resc": "There is said to be an \"AI Sputnik moment\" if ANY of the following come true before 2050,\n\n* A major technology company (>50 billion dollar market cap, in 2021 US dollars, right before the announcement) announces the creation of an AI system. Upon the announcement, their stock price skyrockets by over 100% compared to its previous value within 7 days, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock price is likely a result of the AI development.\n\n* News of an AI development triggers the head of government of the top 2 nations by GDP nominal to give a public speech regarding the ramifications of this particular AI development, within two weeks of the initial news reports.\n\n* The Nasdaq Composite (which is currently heavily weighted towards companies in the information technology sector) rises over 30% in the course of a single week, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock prices is likely a result of the AI development.\n\n* The [Google Trends monitor for artificial intelligence](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0mkz) shows that interest in artificial intelligence rises by over 100% relative to of its previous value, compared to the week prior (using the resolution at 12 months, as currently displayed by the Google Trends widget). If Google Trends changes their functionality or methodology dramatically (as determined by Metaculus admins), then this condition can no longer trigger a positive resolution.\n\n* Practically all reliable media outlets are referring to an AI development as an AI Sputnik moment, as referring to the historical Sputnik 1 satellite", "prediction": "97.5%"} +{"title": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?", "desc": "", "resc": "See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK\n\nCANZUK is an acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. \n\nIt's used for a proposed free movement alliance amongst those countries modeled upon what already exists between Australia and New Zealand. Citizens, especially labor, could then move nearly as freely among them as among the states in the US.\n\nThough the idea has been around for decades, Brexit has heightened UK interest in the concept as a replacement for the EU.\n\n***Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Agreed Before 2029?***\n\nThe question resolves positively if a free movement treaty (or treaties) including but not limited to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom is adopted.\n\nFree Movement means that a citizen using only a passport from one participating country may (with few restrictions) move among, reside in and work in any of them.\n\n[fine-print]\nResolution needs only that the treaty be adopted by the deadline; it need not have taken effect.\n\nMovement restrictions regarding criminals and disease transmission don't matter as long as a passport from one country generally makes one eligible to work in any. See the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement (TTTA) as a model. Indeed, an expansion of the TTTA itself to include Canada and the UK would be a canonical positive resolution.\n\nIt doesn't matter if Scotland secedes from the UK.\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "23%"} +{"title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/)\n* [If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/)\n\n----\n\nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\n\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n\n>“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\n\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\n\n>We support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\n\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\n\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Democratic Party\\(^{†}\\), as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party\\(^{†}\\), including if they are independents who caucus with Democrats.\n\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to January 1, 2035, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.", "prediction": "58%"} +{"title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/)\n* [If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/)\n\n----\n\nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\n\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n\n>“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\n\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\n\n>We support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\n\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\n\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Republican Party\\(^{†}\\), as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party\\(^{†}\\), including if they are independents who caucus with Republicans.\n\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to January 1, 2035, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?", "desc": "Our genes are the biologically encoded information from which we are built. Important traits known to be affected by our genes include aspects of [intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) and [mental illness](https://www.nimh.nih.gov/about/advisory-boards-and-groups/namhc/reports/genetics-and-mental-disorders-report-of-the-national-institute-of-mental-healths-genetics-workgroup). Many physical traits, such as [height](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-much-of-human-height/), [attractiveness](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6448827/), [strength](https://journals.lww.com/acsm-healthfitness/fulltext/2007/03000/genetic_roles_in_muscle_strength.8.aspx), and even [longevity](https://medlineplus.gov/genetics/understanding/traits/longevity/) likewise strongly depend on the genes we have.\n\nAs the human genome and related human biological areas of inquiry became better understood, genetic engineering has become known. In the case of traits affected by simple genetic factors, it has been possible for years to change these genes, and the resulting trait(s) expressed, by means such as CRISPR/Cas9.\n\nThe pace of genetic engineering research, as measured by papers published worldwide, shows a clear trend to be growing. There is every reason to believe that as a result of this research trend, genetic engineering technology will tend to become safer, more powerful, and less expensive with time.\n\nHuman reproduction as we typically know it results in one's genes constituting a mixture of two previously existing humans' genes which were themselves selected in this manner and so on. Artificial means of reproduction still rely on the bulk DNA transfers from existing humans. Presently, genetic engineering for new humans is [exceptional](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00673-1), as well as taboo. \n\nThe gaussian distribution of genetic traits means that most humans won't have the most advantageous genes in most areas. Further, rather undesirable traits are ubiquitous: we all age.\n\nIf genetic engineering reaches the level where it is possible to safely and reliably eliminate the possibility of traits widely considered undesirable, such as predisposition toward schizophrenia, cystic fibrosis, or intellectual disability, there is good reason to think that humans may consider such genetic modification an ethical imperative. This is one scenario.\n\nHuman intelligence is one of the most complicated constructs of substantial genetic determination. Even so, it is possible that humanity could come by a sufficient understanding of the relationship to set humans-to-be with brains optimized to be as smart as possible. It may not be so easy to reach a consensus recognizing these types of modifications as ethnically necessary.\n\nOf course, it goes on. Any desirable trait controlled by genetics can in principle be added by genetic engineering, and any undesirable trait removed. Consequently, the space for possible legal mandates in this field is immense. \n\nOn environment: redwoods have genetics to grow very tall, but if you take one to the desert, it won't work very well (or at all). So while environment interacts with genes, the genes provide the foundation for what the environment has to work with.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2020 to January 1, 2100, any jurisdiction passes any law(s) requiring all births to eliminate or promote certain gene(s) through gene editing techniques. \"Gene editing techniques\" means here [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing), or any techniques which directly and selectively modify targeted genes. The genetic engineering techniques may occur at any time in the individual's lifespan, including before birth, after birth, or before conception. This question will only include jurisdictions which govern a population of at least 1 million people at the time the law is in effect.\n\nLaws only requiring genetic testing or sterilizing/forbidding reproduction by individuals or couples carrying certain genes are not included for the purposes of this question. Forms of artificial selection such as [embryo selection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation#Embryo_selection), or abortion/[extermination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide) of non-compliant genomes are not included for the purposes of this question.", "prediction": "51%"} +{"title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?", "desc": "", "resc": "On 1 December 1948, a man was found dead on Somerton Beach in Adelaide. Of all the mysterious details of the case - [including missing socks, another man's name on the tags of his clothing, speculated links to World War 2 spying operations, allegations of marrying for DNA, potential digitalis poisoning and the thighs of a ballet dancer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamam_Shud_case) - the most interesting was a slip of paper. \n\nDuring the inquest, conducted in June 1949, a torn scrap of paper with the words \"Tamam Shud\" printed on it was found in a hidden pocket in the man's trousers. Persian for \"The End\", these words conclude the *Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam*, a book of poetry. When the find was reported, a man handed in a copy of the book that he had found dropped through the open window in the back of his car. \n\nThe \"Tamam Shud\" scrap had been torn from this book, which contained a series of letters, perhaps a secret code, the word \"JEstyn\" and a phone number. The phone number belonged to Jessica \"Jestyn\" Thomson. Thomson lived 400 metres north of where the Somerton Man's body was found. When shown the plaster bust of the Somerton Man, she almost fainted - and then claimed to not recognise him. \n\nJess Thomson's son Robin was born in July 1947. Robin apparently shares two unusual genetic features with the Somerton Man: a larger upper-ear hollow than lower-ear hollow and hypodontia of the incisors. \n\nBoth Jess and Robin Thomson are now deceased, but [Robin Thomson's daughter Rachel Egan has volunteered her DNA to be compared to that of the Somerton Man to see if he may be her grandfather.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-15/a-marriage-and-a-mystery-somerton-man-romantic-twist/11377458) \n\nAs well as the possibility that there is no match, there is also the risk that not enough DNA is recovered as the Somerton Man's body was embalmed. [The remains, exhumed in May 2021, are in \"reasonable\" condition but there is no timeframe for results to be announced.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-20/somerton-man-forensic-process-following-exhumation/100150868) \n\n***Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family? (\"Tamam Shud\" case)***\n\nForensic Science SA or another scientific authority confirms that Rachel Egan or another member of the Thomson family is related to the Somerton Man, or says that such a relation is over 50% likely.\n\nIf there is no positive confirmation by December 31, 2025, this question resolves negative. If no test is performed, this question resolves ambiguous.", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?", "desc": "The [Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation) is an American private foundation founded by Bill and Melinda Gates. It is reported as of 2020 to be the second largest charitable foundation in the world, holding $49.8 billion in assets. Bill and Melinda were [reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56975466) in May 2021 to be in the process of divorcing.\n\n\nTheir statement said \"Over the last 27 years, we have raised three incredible children and built a foundation that works all over the world to enable all people to lead healthy, productive lives, We continue to share a belief in that mission and will continue our work together at the foundation, but we no longer believe we can grow together as a couple in the next phase of our lives. \"\n\nThis question asks if one of Bill or Melinda devotes significant amounts of their philanthropic efforts outside the existing Gates Foundation, such that the resources available to the foundation are meaningfully reduced.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if credible media sources indicate that either Bill or Melinda Gates have created a separate charitable entity with at least $10bn in assets or total grants, distinct from the existing foundation by December 2030. Exactly one of Bill or Melinda must be actively involved in this new organisation for this to count. Legal restructuring of the existing Gates foundation do not count, if it is still centrally managed by a board containing both Bill and Melinda or uses the name \"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation\" or similar", "prediction": "54%"} +{"title": "Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?", "desc": "Founded in 2018, [50by40](https://50by40.org/about-us/vision-and-mission) is an organisation with the mission to achieve \n>A 50% reduction in the global production and consumption of farmed animal products by 2040, with the remaining production systems being environmentally and socially sustainable, regenerative and humane, achieved via a Just Transition of the farming system. \n\nThis question asks specifically about global meat production. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production) claims global meat production in 2018 was 342.42 million tons, a 46.68% increase since 2000. A 50% reduction from this level would result in global meat production declining to 171.21 million tons, a level last seen in 1988.", "resc": "This resolves positively if global meat production as per OurWorldInData is below 50% of its 2018 level (i.e., is 171.21 million tons or lower) in any year between 2019 and 2040 (inclusive). If OurWorldInData ceases publishing this data by this date, admins can choose a credible alternative source for resolution.\n\n*14 June 2021 edit: Cultivated meat, which is produced from [in vitro cell culture of animal cells rather than from the slaughter of livestock](https://gfi.org/science/the-science-of-cultivated-meat/), does not count toward the overall global meat production figure. Only meat coming from slaughtered animals will count, as is currently the case with Our World's in Data figure of 340M tons as of 2018. Since this 340M tons figure does not include fish/seafood, data from [FAOSTAT as tracked by OWID](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/seafood-and-fish-production-thousand-tonnes?country=~OWID_WRL) — in this case, 155M tons of seafood/fish (2013 figure) — will be added to the meat figure. Again, cultivated fish/seafood does not count. This question will not resolve until 2040 data is available for both meat and fish/seafood production.*", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?", "desc": "From [Shapson-Coe et al.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.29.446289v1.full.pdf), published May 30th, 2021,\n\n> We acquired a rapidly preserved human surgical sample from the temporal lobe of the cerebral cortex. We stained a 1 mm3 volume with heavy metals, embedded it in resin, cut more than 5000 slices at ~30 nm and imaged these sections using a high-speed multibeam scanning electron microscope. We used computational methods to render the three-dimensional structure of 50,000 cells, hundreds of millions of neurites and 130 million synaptic connections. The 1.4 petabyte electron microscopy volume, the segmented cells, cell parts, blood vessels, myelin, inhibitory and excitatory synapses, and 100 manually proofread cells are [available to peruse online](https://h01-dot-neuroglancer-demo.appspot.com/). [...]\n\n> This improvement was in large part due to two noteworthy advances: fast imaging owing to multibeam scanning electron microscopy (Eberle et al. 2015) and the profound effect of AI on image processing and analysis (Januszewski et al. 2018). The rapid improvements over the past few years (Briggman, Helmstaedter, and Denk 2011; Bock et al. 2011; Helmstaedter et al. 2013; Takemura et al. 2013; Lee et al. 2016; Motta et al. 2019; Scheffer et al. 2020; Dorkenwald et al. 2020; Yin et al. 2020; Gour et al. 2021) argues that *analyzing volumes that are even three orders of magnitude larger, such as an exascale whole mouse brain connectome, will likely be in reach within a decade* (Abbott et al. 2020). [Emphasis added]\n\nSee also this [accompanying blog post from the Google AI Blog](https://ai.googleblog.com/2021/06/a-browsable-petascale-reconstruction-of.html).", "resc": "This question resolves positively, if before June 1st 2031, a reliable paper, blog post, or some other article appears in the literature indicating that researchers had digitally mapped a section of an animal connectome using some high-resolution scanning technology, such by [serial section electron microscopy](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jmi.122240), and the size of that map meets or exceeds one exabyte. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.", "prediction": "59%"} +{"title": "Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?", "desc": "China is currently [the most populous county in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), with 17.9% of the global population. Historically, only [various Chinese empires](https://vividmaps.com/largest-empires-by-population/) and the Mongol and Roman Empires have exceeded 30% of the global population. This question asks if by 2100, there will be a centralised government ruling over 80% of the world's population, and accounting for over 80% of global GDP.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if a single government rules over 80% of Earth population and 80% of Earth GDP at any point before January 1st 2100. An organisation would be considered an Earth government if it has supreme military authority in its territory, a unified foreign policy and the power to collect taxes and make laws. This would include the 2021 United States and exclude the 2021 European Union or United Nations", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?", "desc": "The US stock markets have operated almost continuously since the founding of the New York Stock Exchange in 1817, with the longest single period of downtime being for 4 months at the outset of World War 1 [in 1914](https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-stock-exchange-shut-down-1914-2014-7?r=US&IR=T).", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if there is a period of at least 12 consecutive months before the end of 2120 during which there are no public US stock exchanges open for trading.", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US before 2041?", "desc": "[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming. This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial animal farming before December 31, 2040.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?", "desc": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if for each year until 2025, inclusive, Freedom House reports more countries with a decrease in their internet freedom scores than with an increase", "prediction": "80%"} +{"title": "Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?", "desc": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. This question asks if, in 2026, there will be another such foundation or individual donor in the effective altruism space.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if, in 2026, an individual donor or foundation other than Good Ventures, sourcing its wealth from a single individual or family donates over 250 million dollars (adjusted for inflation), using an Effective Altruist framework to guide their donations (see fine print for details).\n\nGrants should only count if they are publicly disclosed, as is currently done by Good Ventures or [Survival and Flourishing](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/), for example.", "prediction": "44%"} +{"title": "Will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system before 2030?", "desc": "The Defense Department started collecting UFO/UAP reports in 2007 as part of the [Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Aerospace_Threat_Identification_Program) and the later [Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidentified_Aerial_Phenomena_Task_Force). News of these programs and associated leaked videos have brought unprecedented mainstream attention to UFOs/UAP.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030, 4 credible media sources\\(^{†}\\) report that non-human extra-terrestrial technology has been discovered in the solar system (within Neptune's orbit). This may pertain to current claims of UFOs/UAP, events between June 1, 2021 and January 1, 2030, or discoveries of archaelogical evidence (defunct or non-operational technology, found on earth or in the solar system).", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "31%"} +{"title": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "A nuclear detonation by a [non-state actor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-state_actor) could potentially have dire consequences either directly or via triggering other harmful actions by other actors. Non-state actors have never yet detonated nuclear weapons, but [there are conceivable scenarios in which they could](https://nonproliferation.org/understanding-nuclear-weapon-risks-non-state-actors-and-nuclear-weapons/): \n\n>The majority of nuclear security experts identify two primary scenarios involving nuclear weapons and non-state actors. The first scenario involves the acquisition of a nuclear device from the existing arsenals of nuclear-armed States by terrorists or other non-state actors. The second scenario envisions the construction of a crude nuclear bomb by non-state actors using special nuclear materials—highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium (Pu). The actualization of each of these scenarios would be very difficult, and the probability of a successful theft and detonation of an actual nuclear weapon or manufacturing of an improvised device by non-state actors is considered to be low. Yet, this probability is not zero.\n\n***Will a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality by 2030?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality in any country or area globally. \n\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \n\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\n\nNeither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\n\n>[fine-print]\n>Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "3.5%"} +{"title": "Will the next non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?", "desc": "", "resc": "The only two offensive detonations of nuclear weapons to date were immediately preceded by conventional conflict between Japan and the US in the South Pacific. Conventional conflict seems likely to increase the chance of an offensive nuclear detonation. However, it is also possible for a [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) nuclear detonation to happen without being preceded by conventional conflict, and this was a common worry during the Cold War in particular. \n\n***Will the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs within three months of a fatality due to conventional conflict between that nuclear state and another state. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. A detonation by a non-state actor that has seized a state's nuclear weapon can count towards positive resolution, but a detonation of a weapon the non-state actor built themselves cannot.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there is no offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by January 1, 2050.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, conventional conflict means any clash between opposing state forces that results in at least one fatality caused by non-nuclear weapons. This could range from minor border disputes to full-blown war. A detonation that occur while the conventional conflict is ongoing can also count towards positive resolution.\n\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\n\n>[fine-print]\n>Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?", "desc": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \n> When numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\n\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\n>because of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\n\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\n>It came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\n\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_(decryption_program)#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if a credible media, company, or scientific source reports that a cryptocurrency has been created using a quantum random number generator and uses quantum random number generation as part of its normal functioning on an ongoing basis", "prediction": "63%"} +{"title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?", "desc": "[Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).\n\nHe [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk is the world's richest person according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) on December 31, 2025.\n\nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires Index is no longer published, the [Forbes Real Time Billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#13e9791c3d78) list should be used. If neither list is published, this will resolve according to the source identified by a consensus of Metaculus moderators; if there is no clear consensus, then the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "13%"} +{"title": "Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?", "desc": "", "resc": "The [Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) writes](https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/) that:\n\n> \"North Korea unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in January 2003, is not a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and has conducted six increasingly sophisticated nuclear tests since 2006. The DPRK is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and is believed to possess a large chemical weapons program. Despite being a state party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and Geneva Protocol, evidence suggests North Korea may maintain an offensive biological weapons program.\n\n> In defiance of the international community, which has imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea for its illicit behavior, the country has continued to escalate its WMD activities. In July 2017, North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and in September 2017 it conducted a test of what it claimed was a thermonuclear weapon.\"\n\nTensions between North Korea and other countries have been increased by the country's testing of nuclear weapons and [of missiles that may have sufficient range to reach the continental United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-15). As of 2020, the nuclear arsenal of North Korea was estimated at approximately [30 to 40 warheads](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction), with the sufficient production of fissile material for the creation of an additional 6 to 7 nuclear weapons a year. President Biden has warned Kim Jong-un that if production and testing of nuclear weapons continues, there will be a [US \"response.\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/world/asia/north-korea-arsenal-nukes.html)\n\n***Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one fatality occurs in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation before January 1, 2050. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. This question will resolve as **No** if that does not occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2050. This question resolves ambiguously if no nuclear detonation (other than test detonations or peaceful nuclear explosions) occurs anywhere before 2050. \n\n>[fine-print]\n>Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "26%"} +{"title": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?", "desc": "[North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) is a country in East Asia, constituting the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. \n\nAccording to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an \"independent socialist state.\" It holds elections, though they have been described by independent observers as sham elections, as North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship, with an elaborate cult of personality around the Kim dynasty: Il-sung, Jong-il, and [current leader Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un). The Workers' Party of Korea, led by a member of the ruling family, is the dominant party and leads the Democratic Front for the Reunification of Korea, of which all political officers are required to be members.\n\nAccording to Article 3 of the constitution, [Juche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche) is the official ideology of North Korea. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services—such as healthcare, education, housing and food production—are subsidized or state-funded. From 1994 to 1998, [North Korea suffered a famine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine) that resulted in the deaths of 240,000 to 3.5 million people, and the population continues to suffer malnutrition.\n\nAs of 2021, in the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, as well as crop failures, [North Korea is facing a 'tense' food shortage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57507456), and there are [fears that many people in the country may be at risk of starvation.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/03/north-korea-facing-major-food-shortage-could-lead-death-millions/)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** in the event that before January 1, 2025, credible reports indicate that North Korea has suffered from a famine beginning no earlier than January 1, 2020 that has likely resulted in at least 250,000 deaths. The question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur", "prediction": "7%"} +{"title": "Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?", "desc": "The [S&P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is often used as a benchmark for the performance of large-cap companies in the United States. On October 19, 1987 (so-called [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987))), the S&P fell 20.47%, the largest movement in its history, which has yet to be surpassed. Generally, when the stock market makes a sudden move, it indicates that there has been some economic shock, such as when the S&P 500 [fell 11.98%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash) during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if before January 1st 2030 and after January 1st 2020, the S&P 500 moves by more than 15.0% from opening to closing price, in a single day", "prediction": "21%"} +{"title": "Will it be legal to pay taxes in the US using bitcoin before 2030?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will anyone be convicted in the US for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/conviction-in-us-for-bitcoin-ownership-2060/)\n\n----", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point before January 1, 2030, the United States [Internal Revenue Service](irs.gov) officially accepts payments in Bitcoin.\n\n1. Some crypto payment services work by exchanging the crypto for fiat at the point of transaction, and then sends fiat. That doesn't count -- what the IRS must receive and accept is the Bitcoin.\n\n2. There is no requirement for the IRS to then hold onto that Bitcoin after receiving it, they could sell if for USD or anything else. It is only required that they accept it for the transaction.\n\n3. It can't be part of a punitive action by the IRS nor another part of the government. It must be that the person was making an otherwise-normal payment toward their income taxes or capital gains tax, in good legal standing. If the IRS seized their crypto holdings due to illegal activity, that is not the spirit of the question.\n\n4. There is no requirement that the Bitcoin transaction be on-chain. If the IRS accepted a custodial transfer of Bitcoin that was held by a bank in trust on behalf of the taxpayer, or if the taxpayer sent the Bitcoin using a lightning network payment channel, or if they sent it using a sidechain, or sent it using a wrapped BTC on another blockchain -- those are all acceptable", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "desc": "2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China). [Graham Allison](https://outline.com/qXAaBy) and [The Brookings Institute](www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/understanding-beijings-motives-regarding-taiwan-and-americas-role/) have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering [Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2050, either of the following occurs:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nThese 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "prediction": "68%"} +{"title": "Will there be an exponential improvement in the bounds on diagonal Ramsey by 2060?", "desc": "One of the most famous questions in combinatorics is the diagonal Ramsey question. Given some n, what is the largest N for which the complete graph on N can have its edges colored red and blue so that there is no monochromatic clique of size n? The lower bound is \\((\\sqrt{2}+o(1))^n\\) and the upper bound is \\((4-o(1))^n\\); see https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.09251 for the best known upper bound.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving, for some constant \\( \\varepsilon>0 \\), a bound \\( R(n,n)>(\\sqrt{2}+\\varepsilon)^n \\) or \\( R(n,n)<(4-\\varepsilon)^n\\), for all sufficiently large \\(n\\).\n\nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus", "prediction": "90%"} +{"title": "Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?", "desc": "[Próspera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%B3spera) is a private charter city and [ZEDE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_for_Employment_and_Economic_Development_(Honduras)) (Zone for Employment and Economic Development) on the island of Roatán in Honduras. \n\nThe project aims to attract both Hondurans and internationals by (among other things) being business-friendly, having the lowest taxes in the world and having a special legal system where residents can choose much of the legal code that they individually live under.\n\nAccording to [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera), Próspera expects 10,000 residents by 2025.\n\nPróspera currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent residents.\n\nPredict the population in 2035 in this [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Próspera, or the same entity with a different name, at any point before 2035 reports that it has 10,000 or more residents.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, e-residents do not count as residents. Only people living on land managed by Próspera do.\n\nIf Próspera does not publish population data and such data is not available even upon request, then this question resolves ambiguously", "prediction": "14%"} +{"title": "Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US before 2041?", "desc": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2040/)\n\n----\n\n[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming.\n\nThis question is more narrow in scope, and asks if commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for meat will be banned by 2041 (so farming for eggs and dairy are not included in this scope).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial farming of pigs, chickens and cows for their meat before December 31, 2040", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the sunflower conjecture be resolved before 2060?", "desc": "One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_(mathematics)) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \n\nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size \\(n\\) are necessary before there are some \\(3\\) whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form \\( \\log(n)^{n(1+o(1))} \\); see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound \\(c^n\\) for some constant \\(c\\).", "resc": "This question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal resolving the sunflower conjecture. \nIf there is no such proof by 2060-01-01, the question will resolve negative. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 2060-01-01, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus", "prediction": "62%"} +{"title": "Is the sunflower conjecture true?", "desc": "One of [Paul Erdős'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s) favorite problems was the [sunflower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_(mathematics)) conjecture, due to him and Rado. Erdős offered $1000 for its proof or disproof. \n\nThe sunflower problem asks how many sets of some size \\(n\\) are necessary before there are some \\(3\\) whose pairwise intersections are all the same. The best known bound was [improved in 2019](https://www.quantamagazine.org/mathematicians-begin-to-tame-wild-sunflower-problem-20191021/) to something the form \\( \\log(n)^{n(1+o(1))} \\); see [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.08483) for the original paper and [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04774) for a slightly better bound. The sunflower conjecture asks whether there is a bound \\(c^n\\) for some constant \\(c\\).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving the sunflower conjecture. \n\nIt will resolve as **No** in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal disproving the sunflower conjecture.\n\nIf there is no such proof by January 1, 2300, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by January 1, 2300, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus.", "prediction": "67%"} +{"title": "Will the automated decipherment of enciphered historical manuscripts change history?", "desc": "[A large number of undeciphered, encrypted handwritten documents exist in historical archives](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01611194.2020.1716410), particularly from the late middle ages to the early 1800s. Many of these documents relate to political or diplomatic affairs. As of this writing few have been deciphered as previously only slow and laborious manual methods were available. \n\nAs modern methods and technology are just beginning to allow automated decipherment of these documents, there exists the possibility of finding new information that may revise our understanding of historical, and maybe historic, events.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one peer-reviewed research paper proposes a revised version of a currently accepted historical event or events based entirely or substantially on information from an automatically deciphered manuscript or manuscripts AND the event(s) in question are considered to be of non-trivial historic significance as reported by at least 2 credible media sources. This combined standard is intended to ensure that only significant historical revisions qualify. The intent is that the threshold for significance will be fairly low, for example if two credible media sources characterize it as a significant revision to a previous understanding of history but several other credible sources characterize it as trivial this still resolves positively. If by 2055 it is unclear whether one or more potentially qualifying events should count as non-trivial, admins may use their discretion to determine the significance of the events or resolve the question ambiguously.\n\nAutomatic decipherment means that automated processes initially deciphered the text. \n\nFor resolution purposes, manuscript means a handwritten document from any time before the 20th century that contains ciphertext. The ciphertext must be undeciphered at the point this question opens to resolve. The history-changing information used to satisfy the resolution criteria must be contained within the ciphertext.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if nothing qualifies by January 1, 2055. Unknown languages that are not otherwise enciphered do not qualify.", "prediction": "76%"} +{"title": "Will the Confederate monument on Stone Mountain be defaced or destroyed before 2035?", "desc": "", "resc": "[Stone Mountain](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/what-will-happen-stone-mountain-americas-largest-confederate-memorial-180964588/) in DeKalb County, Georgia, features the largest Confederate memorial anywhere. At roughly 25 by 60 meters, the monument is also the largest bas-relief carving in the world. It depicts Confederate President Jefferson Davis and his generals Robert E. Lee and \"Stonewall\" Jackson heroically on horseback.\n\nAfter the Charlottesville rally of 2017, and especially after the George Floyd protests of 2020, [removals and defacements of Confederate monuments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials) in the United States accelerated. Democratic candidate for Georgia governor Stacy Abrams has called Stone Mountain \"a blight on our state [that] should be removed,\" while Republican Governor Brian Kemp has pledged to \"protect Stone Mountain and historical monuments in Georgia from the radical left.\"\n\n***Will the Stone Mountain Confederate monument be defaced or destroyed before 2035?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the Confederate relief on Stone Mountain is destroyed, or defaced by irreversibly removing stone, before January 1, 2035. It must be defaced sufficiently such that damage is readily identifiable when the monument is viewed from a distance, or in a 1 megapixel photograph depicting the entire carved area.", "prediction": "47%"} +{"title": "Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?", "desc": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown),\n\n> A lockdown is a restriction policy for people or community to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks to themselves or to others if they can move and interact freely. The term \"stay-at-home\" or \"shelter-in-place\" is often used for lockdowns that affect an area, rather than specific locations. [...]\n\n> During the COVID-19 pandemic, the term lockdown was used for actions related to mass quarantines or stay-at-home orders. The first lockdown during the pandemic was implemented in Wuhan on January 23, 2020. By early April 2020, 3.9 billion people worldwide were under some form of lockdown—more than half the world's population. By late April, around 300 million people were under lockdown in nations of Europe, while around 200 million people were under lockdown in Latin America. Nearly 300 million people, or about 90 per cent of the population, were under some form of lockdown in the United States, and 1.3 billion people have been under lockdown in India.\n\nThe COVID-19 lockdowns were unique in global history. Before, quarantines were more localized, and stay-at-home orders were rare, owing to the fact that most people could not work from home. The rise of internet work has enabled stay-at-home orders. \n\nNatural viral spillover events are [common](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2546865/) and may be becoming more common as the human population rises. Furthermore, the [stupendous fall of deaths from infectious disease](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Trends-in-infectious-disease-mortality-in-the-the-Armstrong-Conn/81ae570a2f918efc8a0763490dc56086531076fc/figure/0) has arguably lowered humanity's threshold for the type of infectious event considered worthy of lockdown as a means of prevention.\n\nDuring the mid 21st century, it may become possible for small groups to artificially engineer viruses using new techniques like [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR). Deepmind's recent [open-sourcing of AlphaFold 2](https://deepmind.com/research/open-source/alphafold) and [its predictions](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03828-1) is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of biology, which may ultimately end up being used for detrimental purposes. This question asks about a secondary effect from viruses in the 21st century: will we keep going on lockdown?", "resc": "Lockdowns are said to be \"recurring\" during the period 2030-2050 if any of the following become true during that time period,\n\n* At least three separate virus species, according to the [ICTV classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_classification) of viruses, are reported to have triggered at least three separate global lockdown events, defined as events in which at least 50% of the world population simultaneously live under stay-at-home orders for some period of time.\n\n* During at least five separate incidents, it is not possible to see an in-person [Broadway Show](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadway_theatre) in New York City due to stay-at-home orders in New York City as a result of a viral event. An incident is said to be separate if Broadway theaters lifted restrictions for some time, before being mandated again.\n\n* The Summer Olympic Games OR Winter Olympic Games are rescheduled at least three times as a result of viral related events.", "prediction": "28%"} +{"title": "Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?", "desc": "[The 2013 Ghouta chemical attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack) during the [Syrian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war) was the deadliest use of chemical weapons since the Iran-Iraq war. Intelligence agencies of Israel, the UK, the US, France, Turkey, and Germany concluded that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad was most likely responsible for the attacks. Russia by contrast blamed an opposition group.\n\nThe fact-checking website [Rootclaim's](https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013) analysis concluded there was a 96% probability the rebel group Liwa al-Islam perpetrated the attack, and Rootclaim [offered](https://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge/) a [100,000 dollar challenge](https://www.rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge) on this topic.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before August 21, 2033 (20 years after the Ghouta chemical attack), three major mainstream American news outlets run an article suggesting that the Syrian government may not have carried out the Ghouta chemical attack, and at least one author of each of the articles believes that there is a more than 50% probability that the Syrian government did not carry out the attack. Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.", "prediction": "45%"} +{"title": "Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030?", "desc": "Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower” predicts that the USA will withdraw from acting as the world police, this can be interpreted as the USA withdrawing from one or more of its current mutual defence treaties.\n\nCurrently the USA is party to 6 mutual defence treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if a credible source reports completion of a process for the USA to withdraw from any of the following treaties: Rio Treaty, North Atlantic Treaty, ANZUS Treaty and bilateral defence treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.\n\nThis question resolves positively if a credible source reports that the USA withdrew military or financial support from any of the above treaties without following the process of withdrawal outlined in the relevant treaties for a continuous period of one year.\n\nIf a sufficient number of parties to any of the above treaties (other than the USA) withdraws (as above) for the treaty to be dissolved, this does not count towards a positive resolution. For example see Southeast Asia Treaty which dissolved in 1977 after France and Pakistan withdrew.\n\nResolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States. (copied verbatim from [Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/)", "prediction": "19%"} +{"title": "Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?", "desc": "The [two-state solution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution) is a proposed solution to the [Israeli-Palestinian conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), involving mutual recognition of Israel and Palestine. [Many attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_peace_process) have been made to reach such a solution.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the [State of Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Palestine) is legally recognized by the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) before January 1, 2070. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In the case of a merger between the two, that does not count as recognition", "prediction": "35%"} +{"title": "Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct power and influence in UK before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "Dominic Cummings is a [British political strategist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings) most known for his role as Chief Advisor to Boris Johnson from 24 July 2019 until 13 November 2020, and for directing the Vote Leave campaign before then.\n\nRecently, his [substack](https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/high-performance-startup-government) contains the phrase: \"If we're going to do politics/government much better, we must carefully study some examples.\"\n\nThis question doesn't concern itself whether Dominic Cummings is going to do politics/government \"much better\", but solely with whether he is \"going to do government\" again.\n\n\"Being in power\" is a fairly [fuzzy concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_concept), but for the purposes of this question, it is taken to mean: \n\n- Being employed at least three days a week by any one of: a UK political party, the UK Civil Service, a UK politician, or \n- holding political office in the UK, the EU, or any organization of the [UN system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_System)\n\n***Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct political power in the UK before 2050?***\n\n[fine-print]\n\nAt question resolution time, a lone Metaculus moderator will consider whether there is a case to be made that resolution is ambiguous. If there is such a case to be made, the question resolves by simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators or admins. Otherwise, the lone Metaculus moderators resolves the question.\n\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will the first human clone be made in China?", "desc": "China appears to be at the forefront of some aspects of biotechnology, being the first in the world both to successfully [clone primates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhong_Zhong_and_Hua_Hua) and to successfully [gene edit humans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/He_Jiankui_affair).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the first human being to be successfully cloned was cloned in China, according to credible media reports. For this question, a successful cloning must survive at least until the start of the calendar day immediately after its date of birth, in local time. There are no other specific requirements for duration of survival, phenotype, or genotype, except that the clone must be human.\n\nIf the first successful human clone is born in a region other than China, this question will resolve as **No**. This question will resolve for the first cloning which is credibly reported to the public; if later reports reveal that a successful human cloning occured earlier, the question will **not** re-resolve.\n\nIf a human has not been successfully cloned by January 1, 2080, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "prediction": "44%"} +{"title": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?", "desc": "The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\n\nThe medal table is calculated by taking all the medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n\n1. Number of Gold Medals\n2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals\n3. (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals\n\nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Paris Olympics do not take place before 2027. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n\n*Related questions*\n\n* [How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)\n* [Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [How many medals will Team USA win at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)\n* [Will the Team USA top the medal table at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/)\n\n----\n\n[There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\n\nFrance is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. [Their last 6 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_at_the_Olympics#Medals_by_Summer_Games):\n\n```\n2000: 6th \n2004: 7th \n2008: 10th \n2012: 7th \n2016: 7th\n2020: 8th\n```", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if France place in the top 5 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2024. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2024.\n\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n\n1. Number of Gold Medals\n2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals\n3. (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medal", "prediction": "41%"} +{"title": "Will the Unique Games Conjecture be proved by 2030?", "desc": "The [Unique Games Conjecture (UGC)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unique_games_conjecture) is a conjecture made by [Nevanlinna Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevanlinna_Prize) winner [Subhash Khot](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subhash_Khot) of NYU in 2002. \nIt states that the Unique Games problem is NP-hard, and is one of the famous open problems in computational complexity theory. It especially has implications in hardness of approximation; for instance, it implies that the problem of approximating [maximum cut](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_cut) for graphs by a better constant than given by the Goemans-Williamson algorithm is NP-hard.\n\nAt the 2019-2020 [Tel Aviv Theory Fest](https://sites.google.com/view/tau-theory-fest/home), MIT professor [Elchanan Mossel](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elchanan_Mossel) and NYU professor and Khot [made a bet](https://www.google.com/amp/s/windowsontheory.org/2019/12/30/a-bet-for-the-new-decade/amp/) that a correct proof of UGC will be uploaded to [arXiv](arxiv.org) by 2030. In early 2018, Khot, along with Dor Minzer and Muli Safra, made a [significant advance](https://windowsontheory.org/2018/01/10/unique-games-conjecture-halfway-there/) toward proving UGC in a [paper](https://eccc.weizmann.ac.il/report/2018/006/). Harvard professor [Boaz Barak](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boaz_Barak) agreed to referee the bet.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Boaz Barak writes publicly (on Twitter, a blog, or elsewhere) that Elchanan Mossel has won the bet. It resolves negatively if he announces Subhash Khot has won. If there is no announcement by the resolve date, then it resolves positively if there is a peer reviewed paper that was originally uploaded to the ArXiv in 2030 which is accepted in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference by the resolve date. Else, it resolves negatively", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?", "desc": "On July 30, [Nate Silver](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1421230734686228489) of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) retweeted [Ben Wakana](https://twitter.com/benwakana46/status/1421182153224818694) of the White House COVID response team. Wakana was critical of a [tweet by the New York Times](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1420972977005412354) that implied that vaccinated people were just as likely to spread the delta variant of COVID-19 as unvaccinated people. Nate Silver suggested that twitter should flag the New York Times tweet for being misinformation.", "resc": "This question resolves positive if Twitter flags a tweet by @nytimes as misinformation by 2025. [\"Flagging\"](https://blog.twitter.com/en_us/topics/product/2020/updating-our-approach-to-misleading-information) is defined as putting a link in a tweet to some information that contradicts the claims made in the tweet. Otherwise, it resolves negative", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states before 2041?", "desc": "Marijuana is being legalized in many US states after having been illegal in all states for decades. While the status varies widely from state to state, states that tend to vote for Republican candidates are more likely to have marijuana be completely illegal or legal only for medical (non-recreational) use.\n\nThe following 20 states have voted for Republican presidential candidates in all 4 of the previous presidential elections (from 2008 til 2020), and are the focus of this question:\n\nAK, MT, ID, WY, ND, SD, UT, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, TN, KY, WV, AL, SC\n\nRecreational use is currently only legal in 2 of these states (Alaska and Montana), accounting for 35.6% of the land area of these states (Alaska is very big).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if recreational marijuana use is legal in at least 2/3rds of the land area currently encompassed by the aforementioned states (by any level of governmental action, whether federal or state-level or what may be) at any time (for a period of at least 6 months) between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2041", "prediction": "88%"} +{"title": "Will armed conflicts between India and Pakistan lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "desc": "Since [partition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_India), [India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India) and [Pakistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan) have had a [tense relationship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and [many conflicts.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_wars_and_conflicts) In 1999, India and Pakistan fought the [Kargil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2050, either of the following occur:\n\n* There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n* There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of India and Pakistan causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by many years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2049.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "prediction": "82%"} +{"title": "Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?", "desc": "[New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_York_hurricanes) and [New Jersey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Jersey_hurricanes) are vulnerable to hurricanes. New York City was affected by [The 1938 New England Hurricane](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane#New_York_City_and_western_Long_Island), and more recently by [Hurricane Sandy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy), among others.", "resc": "This question will resolve positive if before 2030, credible media reports indicate that there have been [sustained hurricane-force winds of at least 33 meters per second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) for one minute at 10m above the surface of some point within the city limits of New York City", "prediction": "66%"} +{"title": "Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?", "desc": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the [Republic of China (Taiwan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news [recently claimed](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386) that the threat of China invading Taiwan is \"growing every day\".", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026, either of the following occur:\n\n* There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n* There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nPlease note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by multiple years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "desc": "*You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series [here](https://possibleworldstree.com/).*\n\n\nIn 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\n\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \n\n> In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \n\n> Plants with ‘leaves' no more efficient than today's solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\n\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\n\nA [recent paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3170350) evaluates the opportunities and risks of atomically precise manufacturing argues that the risks might be greatest from military affairs, and specifically rogue actor violence:\n\n> A more significant concern for military APM comes from the potential dangers of rogue actors, including rogue states such as DPRK as well as terrorist groups and other nonstate actors. Over the last two decades, rogue actors have been an increasingly prominent concern for the international community. Looking ahead, some worry that advances in certain technologies, especially biotechnology, could enable rogue actors to cause outsized harm, potentially even a major global catastrophe (e.g., Rees, 2003). APM could also enable a wider range of rogue actors to create powerful arsenals. APM could further make these arsenals smaller and thus easier to conceal. In this regard, APM could be considered similar to biotechnology. This makes for a major risk: a world in which small rogue groups can cause global harm is a fragile world to live in.\n\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".", "resc": "In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/) Now it is asked,\n\n**Given that nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?**\n\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nanotechnology catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves *positively* if such a catastrophe does occur, **and** the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \n\nThe question resolves negative if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.", "prediction": "49%"} +{"title": "Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", "desc": "[Thomas Georg John Tugendhat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Tugendhat) MBE VR (born 27 June 1973) is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee since 2017. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for the ultra-safe Tory seat of Tonbridge and Malling since 2015. Before entering politics, amongst other roles, Tugendhat was a Territorial Army officer in the British Army.\n\nIn the wake of the Fall of Kabul in August 2021, Tugendhat described the event in The Times as Britain's \"biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez\". On 18 August, in the House of Commons, Tugendhat was applauded after giving a powerful speech that drew on his own military experiences in Afghanistan. It concluded, \"This doesn't need to be defeat, but right now it damn well feels like it.\"\n\nThere have subsequently been [suggestions](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9915201/Of-course-want-leadership-position-Tom-Tugendhat-speaks-Europes-new-refugee-line.html) that Tugendhat may well become the leader of the UK's Conservative Party, and ultimately become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Tom Tugendhat holds the office of Leader of the Conservative Party at any time before January 1, 2030. Acting leaderships do not count; he must formally be the leader of the party for a positive resolution", "prediction": "13%"} +{"title": "Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?", "desc": "", "resc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7807/civil-war-in-30-median-age-country/)\n* [Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/)\n\n----\n\nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war.\n\n***Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively if before January 1, 2070, at least two of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Guardian, and the Spectator indicate that a civil war begins in a country that has a median age is 30.1 or above according to the 2020 figures from both the [CIA World Factbook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#CIA_figures) and the [United Nations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#UN_figures). A copy of this data is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y8K0IhRh_1ZVvy4mFxyhEJ7GX7FyrDqxRNkeRcLqFIg/edit?usp=sharing).\n\nIn the case of political or territorial changes of any nation on the list, the successor country will be identified as having the same political capitol as the parent country.", "prediction": "82%"} +{"title": "Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2020, had a median age above 30?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7803/civil-war-in-current-30-median-age-country/)\n* [Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/)\n\n----\n\nThere is a large variation in [the median age of countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age). Some [have](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/population-age-structure-and-its-relation-to-civil-conflict-graphic-metric) [suggested](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) that a youth bulge makes civil war more likely. Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq have median ages at most 30 and experienced civil wars recently, as does virtually all of sub-Saharan Africa which has experienced civil wars. Sri Lanka's median age passed 30 right around the time the [Sri Lankan Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lankan_Civil_War) ended. Younger populations [are associated](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_3) with an increased risk of civil war.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if before 2070, at least two of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, the Guardian, and the Spectator indicate that a civil war begins in a country that has a median age is 30.1 or above according to the most recent figures from before the beginning of the civil war from figures from both the [CIA World Factbook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#CIA_figures) and the [United Nations.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age#UN_figures", "prediction": "85%"} +{"title": "Will Iran recognize Israel before 2070?", "desc": "[Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) does not recognize [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel), and a [proxy conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict) between them has continued for decades. Iranian leaders have called Israel the \"Zionist regime\", \"occupied Palestine\", and the \"little Satan\", while they refer to the United States as the \"great Satan\". Before the [Iranian Revolution of 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution), Iran and Israel [maintained close ties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_relations#Israeli_independence_to_Iranian_revolution_(1947%E2%80%9379)).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [State of Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel) is formally recognized by the government of [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2070.", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?", "desc": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.\n\nConditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK, Canada, Germany, or the European Union have attempted a military strike on any Chinese forces in support of Taiwan?", "resc": "This question resolves positively if (i) [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively and (ii) There are at least three credible news reports of at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of any of the above listed nations and the People's Republic of China, which is reported as having being carried out in support of Taiwan or in retaliation to the PRC's actions regarding Taiwan. Military strikes targeting Chinese civilian targets would also count.\n\n'Weapon fire' here should not be taken to include 'warning shots' or similar, but only instances where there was a perceived intent to cause harm to opposition forces or military capabilities, as per the news reports used to resolve the question.\n\nMilitary support on Taiwan's behalf should occur within one year from the date [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves positively as. This question will also retroactively close to a week before the [other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/) resolves", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will Spain recognize Catalonia by 2070?", "desc": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/) asked if Catalonia would become independent by 2022. [Catalonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalonia) is a northeastern region of Spain. The [Catalan nationalist movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_nationalism) is prominent in Catalonia, and Catalans [voted ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Catalan_independence_referendum) for [independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_movement) in 2017.", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at least five credible media outlets report that [Catalonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalonia) or a sovereign state controlling more than 50% of the *current area* of Catalonia is legally recognized as a sovereign state by [Spain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain) or another country controlling more than 50% of the *current area* of Spain before January 1, 2070. Otherwise this resolves as **No**. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the *current area* of Catalonia and of Spain is defined as the area of these regions on July 1, 2022.", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "By August 2021, most of Afghanistan has fallen under the control of the Taliban, including the capital of Kabul on August 15. The last time the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, it was the location of [Al Qaeda training bases and leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_for_the_September_11_attacks) that led to the 9/11 attacks on the United States and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, there is [increased concern](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-15/concerns-over-us-terror-threats-rising-as-taliban-seizes-power-in-afghanistan) that it will be used as a base for terrorist attacks.\n\n***Will Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism by 2026?***\n\nThis question will resolve positively in the event that both of the below are true, based on credible media reports: \n\n1. A terrorist attack that kill at least 10 people has been conducted against a NATO nation by December 31, 2026. Such an attack must occur outside of Afghanistan.\n\n**AND**\n\n2. This terrorist attack was carried out by: \n - A member of the Afghan Taliban, *or*\n - A member of any terrorist organization funded, supported, or protected by the Afghan Taliban.\n\n* Resolution will be based on credible media reports of a determination by any of the below entities: \n - The United States federal government \n - NATO\n - The European Union\n\n* If one or more such attacks have not been confirmed by any of the above entities, then this question will resolve negatively.\n\n[fine-print]\n1. An attack will be considered \"against a NATO nation\" if it occurs within a NATO nation's internationally recognized borders, or is deliberately targeted towards a NATO nation's government facilities or personnel overseas (e.g. embassy or military base) outside of Afghanistan. A terrorist attack within a non-NATO nation that is not targeted at a NATO nation's government facility or personnel (e.g. an attack on a sports stadium in India that incidentally kills >10 NATO nationals) will not be sufficient to trigger a positive resolution. \n\n2. If the attacks result in the deaths of the attackers, such as in a suicide bombing, those deaths will *not* count towards the resolution criteria, even if the attackers are citizens of a NATO nation. \n\n3. What counts as a \"terrorist organization\" will be determined by the US federal government, NATO, or the European Union. \n\n4. In the event that NATO ceases to exist by the resolution date, the question will resolve negatively if no such attack occurs prior to NATO's dissolution.\n\n5. Any terrorist attacks that occur while the Taliban are not in control of Afghanistan will not trigger a positive resolution. The Taliban will be considered in control of Afghanistan if they control either Kabul or a majority (18+ / 34) [provincial capitals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Afghanistan).\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "46%"} +{"title": "Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?", "desc": "In the 2020 US Presidential election, [major news desks called the election for Joe Biden](https://apnews.com/article/media-calls-joe-biden-winner-bee69f9d1d32e84d68e6164ea956e67a) in the week following the November election. Despite this, [a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempts_to_overturn_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election), such that betting markets still [placed nontrivial probabilities](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-betting-idUSKBN27S1P5) on the result being overturned for much of the next two months until Joe Biden's inauguration.\n\nThis question asks if we will see a situation in 2025 where the newly inaugurated president is not from the party which was called by major news desks as having won the election.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the US President inaugurated in 2025 is from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of the following news desks: ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News and NBC News", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?", "desc": "", "resc": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/)\n\n----\n\nIn US presidential elections, it is required that states submit their results by the Safe Harbor deadline, which is the date 6 days prior to the meeting of the electoral college, when the president is officially elected.\n\nIn 2020, there were numerous efforts at the state level in a number of states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, to change the result from the result projected by major news organisations, often alleging that voter fraud had resulted in Joe Biden's victory. None of these were ultimately successful.\n\n***In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any US state officially submit results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline that are different from the projected winner of that state?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if any US state (including DC and districts of states) officially submits results to the electoral college by the Safe Harbor deadline (currently, December 10th, 2024) that are different from the projected winner of that state according to at least 6 of the following news desks: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, AP, Reuters, and the NYT.", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?", "desc": "In 2000, the 5-4 decision by the US Supreme Court in [Bush v Gore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore) was widely considered to have decided the outcome of the US election. In 2020, there were numerous attempts (e.g. [here](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/supreme-court-denies-texas-challenge-overturn-2020-election/story?id=74680935) and [here](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/22/supreme-court-declines-take-2020-election-case-pennsylvania/6578884002/)) to bring cases regarding the election before the Supreme Court, but all were denied.\n\nThis question asks if the Supreme Court will hear and decide a case in 2024 or 2025 which has the potential to overturn the election results.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if, in 2024 or 2025, a case relating to the 2024 US Presidential Election is heard and decided by the US Supreme Court which, if decided differently, would lead to different individuals being made US president. \n\nThis should exclude cases being brought before the Supreme Court which are unrelated to the 2024 election, for example a case related to impeachment of a president, or a case related to the invocation of the 25th amendment.\n\nAt least three credible media reports from different sources should be used to determine if deciding the case differently would influence the outcome of the election", "prediction": "6%"} +{"title": "In January 2025, will we see \"3 US Code § 15\" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?", "desc": "Under 3 U.S.C. §15, the US Houses of Congress meet on January 6th following the election [to count the votes of the electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_Count_Act).\n\nIf there are any objections to the returns from any state, they must be resolved before the process can continue to the next state. For an objection to be considered and voted on, it must be in writing and made by at least one representative and one senator. This has happened 4 times - once each in 1969 and 2005, and twice in 2021.\n\nIn 2021, the returns from [Arizona](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/01/06/sen-ted-cruz-house-gop-republicans-object-to-arizona-electoral-votes-congress) and [Pennsylvania](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/live-update/pro-trump-mob-breaches-u-s-capitol/1-senator-and-80-house-members-object-to-pennsylvania-results-triggering-further-debate) were objected to and debated - with both objections defeated - and this would not have been enough to swing the election, as their combined 31 electoral votes, if changed from Biden to Trump, would still have left Biden the victor.\n\nThis question asks if sufficiently many objections will be made to potentially influence the outcome of the election.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if enough states are debated under 3 US Code § 15 after the 2024 US Presidential Election such that some combination of these states' electoral votes being flipped to another candidate would change the outcome of the election", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will there be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030?", "desc": "[Prime Minister Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi) of India is a member of the [BJP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party). The BJP won a majority of 282 seats in India's [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha) in 2014 and increase that majority to [303 seats in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election), outperforming expectations.", "resc": "This question will resolve positive if before 2031-01-01, an Indian Prime Minister takes office who is not a member of the BJP, or if the acting Prime Minister changes membership to another party.", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?", "desc": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the White House, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\n\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2024, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n\n435* seats will be contested in 2024 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2025 and certifies its membership.", "resc": "Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.", "prediction": "48%"} +{"title": "Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?", "desc": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections):\n\n> The 2024 United States Senate elections will be held on November 5, 2024, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on February 1, 2025, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n\n[fine-print]\nFor reference, generally when the Senate is divided 50/50 the majority party is determined by the party of the Vice President. An illustrative example of how the majority party is determined is the 107th Congress, where the majority party switched 3 times between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2002 due to the VP's party changing, senators switching parties, and vacancies. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/107th_United_States_Congress)\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "desc": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The Taliban [have expressed](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1427016723039985668) that they view Turkey not as an enemy, but as an ally.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point between September 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030, the Turkish government formally recognizes the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "prediction": "65%"} +{"title": "Will Pakistan recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "desc": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). Historically, Pakistan has had [close ties with the Taliban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban#Pakistan) and helped to [create it](https://www.npr.org/2021/08/27/1031809296/pakistan-helped-create-the-taliban-heres-what-it-means-for-the-country-now).", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Pakistani government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "prediction": "80%"} +{"title": "Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "desc": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). [Multiple](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-prepared-to-recognize-taliban-if-kabul-falls-sources-say-undermining-u-s-threats/ar-AANfznt) [sources](https://nypost.com/2021/08/13/china-prepares-to-recognize-taliban-if-it-topples-afghan-govt-report/) have reported that China is considering recognizing the Taliban.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if before 2030-01-01, reliable media sources report that the Chinese government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?", "desc": "[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried) is a US cryptocurrency billionaire, with an estimated net worth of $16.2 billion in August 2021, [according to Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2021/08/11/10-giant-crypto-and-blockchain-rounds-single-handedly-raised-39-billion-this-year/?sh=5ae541b32e2e).\n\nBankman-Fried is a long time advocate for Effective Altruism, and has on numerous occasions stated his intention to [give most of his fortune away](https://fortune.com/2021/07/29/sam-bankman-fried-crypto-billionaire-ftx/).\n\nThis question asks if he will manage to grant over $1bn 2021 USD before 2031.", "resc": "This resolves positive if, by year end 2030, there is a public record of donations by SBF or grants by a grantmaking organisation of which he is the primary funder (see fine print) which total over $1bn in 2021 USD.\n\nDonations to political campaigns or to an unallocated DAF or foundation which is under his control should not be counted for this question. Donations by the FTX Foundation should not count either, except if the assets in question are donated to the Foundation by Bankman-Fried himself and regranted by the question deadline. Donations to foundations or trusts which he does not control, but is a beneficiary of; or that exist wholly, primarily, or partly for the benefit of his friends and family should also be excluded.", "prediction": "0.8%"} +{"title": "Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "desc": "In the wake of the [Taliban takeover of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Taliban_offensive), the [Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Emirate_of_Afghanistan) has remained an [unrecognized state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition). The United States has said it is [premature](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-premature-to-recognize-taliban-as-legitimate-government-of-afghanistan/ar-AANqEPV) to recognize the Taliban. The US has [also said](https://www.thedailystar.net/news/world/usa/news/no-quick-recognition-taliban-us-or-allies-2163551) that recognition of the Taliban would be contingent on the Taliban respecting women's rights and not supporting terrorism.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the United States of America has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "By 2030, will at least 1% of Gallup respondents report the most important problem facing the US is something relating to space?", "desc": "The policy and politics surrounding space governance may have enormous consequences for humanity's long-term future. Yet, there is currently relatively little interest in the area. [*80,000 Hours*](https://80000hours.org/) lists space governance as among the potential highest priorities for improving the long-term future, [saying that](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/#space-governance):\n\n>Despite the huge stakes, governance of space is an extremely niche area of study and advocacy. As a result, major progress could probably be made by a research community focused on this issue, even just by applying familiar lessons from related fields of law and social science.\n\nWhether this is true may depend on how politically charged the topic becomes. How interested the public is in the topic may reflect or create political interest, and therefore bears on how influential a small research community could be. The interest of the American public is especially important, as America is home to some of the world's largest space related organizations, such as NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic. \n\n[Since 1933](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/27/us/politics/most-important-problem-gallup-polling-question.html), the [Gallup polling organization](https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx) has asked Americans the question: “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?\".", "resc": "This question resolves positively if before Jan 1, 2030, Gallup announces a poll, as part of its “[Most Important Problem](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx)” series, showing that 1% of Americans responded with an answer referring to space or space governance.", "prediction": "11%"} +{"title": "Is the Shannon Capacity of the 7-cycle equal to its Theta function?", "desc": "Determining the [Shannon capacity of a 7-cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon_capacity_of_a_graph#Computational_complexity) is a famous [open problem](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/shannon_capacity_of_the_seven_cycle) in mathematics and [computer science](https://rjlipton.wpcomstaging.com/2013/07/10/rough-problems/). The best known upper bound for \\(\\Theta(C_7)\\) is \\(\\vartheta(C_7)\\), the value of the [Lovász theta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lov%C3%A1sz_number). This is given by a [semidefinite program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semidefinite_programming) and is similar to some upper bounds for sphere packing.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that \\(\\Theta(C_7)=\\vartheta(C_7)\\). It will resolve as **No** if there is a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that \\(\\Theta(C_7)<\\vartheta(C_7)\\).\n\nIf there is no such proof by January 1, 2300, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by January 1, 2300, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus", "prediction": "53%"} +{"title": "Will most of the first 100 IQ-selected \"designer babies\" be born in China?", "desc": "[A previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/) asks when 100 babies will be born who are selected for intelligence. Here, we ask how many of them will be born in China.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if more than 50 of the first 100 babies who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence are born in the People's Republic of China, according to credible reports. If 100 such babies are not born by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nFor this question to resolve positively, it must be the case that the polygenetic selection is done in part for the purpose of increasing the expected intelligence; incidental effects on expected intelligence arising from polygenetic selection or screening for non-intelligence-related traits should not trigger positive resoltion", "prediction": "35%"} +{"title": "Does P equal BPP?", "desc": "The [P vs BPP](http://www.openproblemgarden.org/op/p_vs_bpp) question asks whether any problem in [BPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time using randomness, [is the same as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)#Problems) [P](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_(complexity)), the class of problems that can be efficiently solved in polynomial time without randomness.\n\nP is contained in BPP, and BPP is [contained in](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BPP_(complexity)#Complexity-theoretic_properties) the [polynomial hierarchy PH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial_hierarchy) which also contains [NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP_(complexity)). If [P=NP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_versus_NP_problem), then P=PH and so P=BPP.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal or computer science conference proving that P=BPP. It will resolve negatively if there is such a proof that P is not equal to BPP. If a proof is published, but not confirmed by peer review by 3000, the question may wait to resolve until peer review has reached a consensus. If there is no proof of disproof by the resolve date of 3000-01-01, it will resolve ambiguously.\n\nIn the event that a proof is published and confirmed by peer review, the question will close retroactively 24 hours before the proof is published or pre-printed", "prediction": "73%"} +{"title": "Will there be a European Army before 2032?", "desc": "Wikipedia describes the [European Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_army) as follows:\n\n> The European army or EU army are terms for a hypothetical army of the European Union which would supersede the Common Security and Defence Policy and would go beyond the proposed European Defence Union. Currently, there is no such army, and defence is a matter for the member states.\n\nThe idea of such an army is brought up periodically, although so far there are no plans in the works to create it.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, there is legislation passed in at least 5 European countries (including one of France, Germany, UK) which makes provisions for an army consisting of units from multiple countries.\n\nLower level army units (eg platoons, companies, battalions, regiments) need not be mixed. (For example, often countries have armies formed from regional regiments and are still considered national armies). However, senior levels need to be staffed by officers from a range of countries.\n\nThe army needs to be planned to be an \"Army\". ie a joint battalion (eg the one formed between the Dutch and Germans) would not count. For this question, this means that at least 30,000 soldiers need to be planned to be in such an army.\n\nThe army needs to report to a supranational organization. It need not be the an EU body or any existing organization. It does need to be specifically European. eg A G7 army would not count", "prediction": "38%"} +{"title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2031?", "desc": "*This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2041, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7994/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2041/).*\n\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\n\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](\nhttps://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc", "prediction": "62%"} +{"title": "Will an inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy be approved by the FDA before 2041?", "desc": "*This question supports and is linked to a fortified essay on the future of nanotechnology by Physical Chemist Kevin Ausman. [Click here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8012/when-will-we-see-real-nanotechnology/) to read the full essay. There is a related question, whether nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy will be approved by 2031, [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/).*\n\nInorganic nanoparticles are small collections of a few thousand to a few billion atoms, typically ranging from 1 to 100 nm in diameter. They have many peculiar chemical and physical properties, which make them attractive for designing therapies.\n\nAn example of such technology is called [Aurolase Therapy](\nhttps://nanospectra.com/technology/), and has been in development for two decades. It's now in [pilot studies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/37/18590) in humans with early results giving reason for optimism.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2041, the FDA gives full approval to a cancer therapy that uses inorganic nanoparticles in the patient's treatment. The therapy must target the cancer cells rather than downstream symptoms. We specify \"inorganic\" to exclude lipid nanoparticles etc", "prediction": "80%"} +{"title": "Will Iran recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "desc": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The Asia Times [reported](https://twitter.com/KZiabari/status/1439967886454493189) that the Iranian leadership was divided on recognizing the Taliban.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030, the Iranian government formally recognizes the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will Russia recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "desc": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. The National Interest [has reported](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-fines-pro-afghanistan-protesters-pursues-relations-taliban-192822) that Russia is pursuing friendly relations with the Taliban.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that the Russian government has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "prediction": "69%"} +{"title": "Will the existence and smoothness properties of the Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions turn out to depend on the compactness of the universe over which they are defined?", "desc": "The [Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_existence_and_smoothness) is an important open problem in fluid dynamics and the theory of partial differential equations. It's been designated as one of the Clay Institute's Millennium Prize Problems in 2000 and there is a 1 million dollar bounty available for either proving or disproving the conjecture. In the official introduction to the problem [here](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/navierstokes.pdf), the Clay Institute splits the problem into four statements A, B, C and D; and the problem is considered to have been settled if *any one* of them is proven.\n\nImportantly for this question, the statements A and C are about the Navier-Stokes equations defined on the noncompact space \\( \\mathbb R^3 \\), while B and D are about the equations defined on the compact torus \\( (\\mathbb R/\\mathbb Z)^3 \\).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if before the resolution date of the question there are proofs of *either* both A and D *or* both B and C. It resolves negatively if there are proofs of *either* both A and B *or* both C and D. If neither event takes place before the resolution date of the question, the question resolves ambiguously", "prediction": "45%"} +{"title": "Will Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?", "desc": "In the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has remained an unrecognized state. [The Taliban has said it will not recognize Israel.](https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/1435398469292904450)", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2030, reliable media sources report that Israel has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "desc": "A previous Metaculus question asked about a [great power war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/) and whether the [US and others would intervene](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/) in a [conflict over Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/). Some scholars have warned about a [Thucydides Trap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap) that could lead to a war between the US and China, over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or some other issue.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2050, either of the following occur:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the United States and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nThese 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period.\n\nThis question will resolves as **No** otherwise.\n\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "prediction": "42%"} +{"title": "Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?", "desc": "Abiy Ahmed Ali has been Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia since 2018, and in 2021 he was [re-elected with a huge majority to a five-year term](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57791868). But he faces [a spiraling civil war centered on Tigray Region](https://theconversation.com/tigray-war-antagonists-are-reluctant-to-talk-peace-why-and-whats-next-168193), which is [battering his economy](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58319977) and leading to [increasing](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/17/background-press-call-by-senior-administration-officials-on-ethiopia/) international [pressure](https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/09/24/biden-administration-considering-tigray-genocide-determination/).", "resc": "A \"significant leadership disruption\" includes confirmed reports that Abiy has:\n\n* resigned (including the issuance of a resignation that will take effect at a later date),\n* lost a confidence vote,\n* lost an election,\n* formally left office,\n* died,\n* been forcibly removed from office for 10 or more consecutive days,\n* fled or been exiled from office for 10 or more consecutive days,\n* been medically incapacitated from discharging their duties for 10 or more consecutive days,\n* been missing (whereabouts unknown) for 10 or more consecutive days.\n\nResolution will be according to reliable published reports", "prediction": "18%"} +{"title": "If we find life on an icy moon of the gas giants by 2200, will we also find evidence of macrofauna?", "desc": "The icy moons of the outer solar system are one of the most promising places in the search for life in the present time in our solar system. Several of them, e.g. Europa and Enceladus, are assumed to satisfy the conditions for hosting microbial life: liquid water in vast oceans under an ice cover, sufficient energy and the appropriate chemicals. However, it remains unclear whether an icy moon has the appropriate conditions for hosting macrofauna; for example, whether there are mechanisms available for the transfer of a sufficient amount of oxygen to the ocean. \n\nSeveral mission concepts exist to search for extant life on one of these moons. The more ambitious of them involve landing a spacecraft and deploying a melting probe to drill through several kilometers of ice to reach the subglacial ocean. Once there, a submersible can investigate the ocean for extant life. Such a challenging mission would most likely take place sometime in the second half 21st century. It would be possible that such a mission could be equipped to not only detect microbial life but also any existing macrofauna.", "resc": "The question resolves positively if at least two national space agencies publicly state they believe the existence of macrofauna native to the ocean of an icy moon has been confirmed. Confirmed life may be currently alive, or dead (such that we find fossilized remains). Discoveries of life and macrofauna need not occur at the same time, nor in the same place.\n\nIf we do not discover any evidence of life on an icy moon by 2200, this question will resolve ambiguously. If we discover life on an icy moon but do not find macrofauna, this question resolves negative. If we discover life somewhere else (for example, on Mars) but find no life on an icy moon, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, \"macrofauna\" is defined as any multicellular organism larger than the approximate minimum resolution of the naked eye (0.1 mm). In other words, any multicellular organism that would be retained on a 0.1 mm mesh.", "prediction": "12%"} +{"title": "Will an effort to coordinate foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "The US Declaration of Independence refers to the concept of the [consent of the governed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consent_of_the_governed), that governance and its associated authority are derived from the will of the people. A lack of consent may lead to revolution in extreme cases. In modern America, citizens typically interact with governance by voting and advocating for representatives and preferred policies, or by moving to another jurisdiction with governance that already more closely aligns with their current interests.\n\n[Foot voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_voting) is the \"physical migration to leave a situation one does not like, or to move to a situation one regards as more beneficial.” America has a rich history of migration and de facto foot voting. The westward movement of citizens via Manifest Destiny, the [Mormons' mass exodus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mormon_pioneers) to Utah, and the movement of African Americans to northern cities are historic examples of foot voting in America. Although such radical migrations are less visible today, Americans still move with regularity, and federalism allows American jurisdictions to compete for residents based on tax policy, healthcare, education, job opportunities and other aspects of governance.\n\nIn 2001, the [Free State Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_State_Project) (FSP), a non-profit organization, explicitly encouraged Americans to move to New Hampshire to support and influence the state's governance. Participants were asked to sign a statement of intent to move to New Hampshire within five years of reaching 20,000 signatories. In 2016, the threshold was met. There were almost 2,000 early movers, and by 2021, over 5,000 of the original signees had purportedly moved to NH, and 17 state representatives [self-identified as Free Staters](https://freestateprojectwatch.org/fsp-members-in-nh-state-senate-house-2017-2018/) in the 2017-2018 session. FSP asserts that it no longer actively aims for a specific number of voters to move. Regardless, this is both objectively impressive and evidence that this kind of coordination is extremely difficult. FSP legitimately changed NH politics but only 25% of these motivated Americans found it viable to move.\n\nThe Free State Project is a seminal example of foot voting that was coordinated, which refers to the intentional effort to coordinate foot voting en masse to increase the value of individual votes.\n\n***Will a coordinated effort at foot voting intentionally move 10,000+ residents to a single American state by 2030?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if any organization, platform or group publicly self-proclaims that they have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state by Jan 1, 2030 with the intention of voting en masse. Claims must be corroborated by credible media reports, and in the case of ambiguity, Metaculus Admins will make a determination at their discretion. We're specifically interested in modern and relatively acute instances of CFV, so the effort should have started on or after January 1, 2016, shortly before FSP officially started counting movers (If for example, the FSP reaches 10,000 moved to NH by 2030, this will resolve the question positively). This question resolves negatively if no projects have moved 10,000+ residents to a single state.", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?", "desc": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \n\nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. Indeed, the questions were framed as partly intending to get at extinction risk. But how likely _is_ extinction, given a 95% population loss? \n\n(See also [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100), [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/), and a soon-to-be-released question intended to get at the likelihood of unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse) given a 95% population loss.)", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million by 2100 and, within 20 years of the population falling below that level, there are no longer any living humans. The extinction could occur at the exact same time as the initial population decline (if some event instantly causes extinction), gradually over the course of 20 years, or anywhere in between.\n\nThe question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100 but extinction doesn't occur within 20 years. The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n\nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n>\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?", "desc": "", "resc": "Previous questions asked whether the human population would be reduced by 95% or more within 25 years of various catastrophes occurring before 2100, if such catastrophes occur. (The catastrophes in question were a [global biological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), an [artificial intelligence catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [nuclear catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/), a [global climate disaster](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/), and a [global nanotechnology catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/).) \n\nSuch questions are especially important from a [longtermist](https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hilary-greaves-william-macaskill-the-case-for-strong-longtermism/) perspective and if they are diagnostic of the chance of extinction or some other existential catastrophe. [Another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) asks how likely extinction is within 20 years of such a population decline. This question is intended as an imperfect proxy for the chance of another type of existential catastrophe: Unrecoverable [collapse](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/civilizational-collapse). \n\n(See also [How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/).)\n\n***Will human population size recover to 5b by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400m without extinction occurring within 20 years?***\n\nThis question resolves positively if the human population falls to below 400 million sometime before 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years of that population decline, and the population recovers to >5 billion people sometime by the year 3000 (whether or not it remains >5 billion in the year 3000). The question resolves negatively if the population falls to below 400 million by 2100, extinction doesn't occur within 20 years, and the population remains below 5 billion from then till the year 3000 (whether this involves extinction or not, and regardless of what happens after 3000). The question resolves ambiguously if the population never falls below 400 million before 2100 or if extinction occurs within 20 years of such a population fall.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are creatures who at least one 2021 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n\nAs stated on [another question about such extreme events](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n>\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"\n\n[fine-print]\nFor simplicity, this question will not attempt to distinguish truly unrecoverable collapses from \"merely\" those in which no recover occurs until after 3000 and will not attempt to consider any dimensions of collapse or recovery other than population size.\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "69%"} +{"title": "Will a senolytic therapy for a companion animal be commercially available before one for humans?", "desc": "A [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/) asks about the approval for commercial sale of human senolytics, drugs that induce removal of senescent cells to delay or reverse aging. Other types of anti-aging therapies are [being developed for dogs](https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/05/09/142971/a-stealthy-harvard-startup-wants-to-reverse-aging-in-dogs-and-humans-could-be-next/), with the benefit of serving as stepping stones to similar therapies for humans, helping to fill scientific, financial, and regulatory gaps.", "resc": "Similar to the linked question's criterion, “an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells”. This function must be verified by a reputable third party, such as the FDA or major medical journals. An impact on lifespan need not be demonstrated for either the animal or the human therapy.", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran does not get a nuclear bomb by then?", "desc": "In 2020, Israel [normalized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords) relations with the [United Arab Emirates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_relations), [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain%E2%80%93Israel_normalization_agreement), and [Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Morocco_normalization_agreement) in the [Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords). This comes in the face of [increasing cooperation](https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/) between the United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries who all face a threat from Iran and [have](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#United_States_views) [expressed](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210927-iran-s-nuclear-program-has-crossed-all-red-lines-israel-pm-1) [concern](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-activity-is-concerning-says-saudi-official-2021-07-09/) about Iran's nuclear program. A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/) asked if Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in 2021.", "resc": "If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves negatively (i.e. the Iranian Regime credibly states it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports), then this question will resolve positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the State of Israel is legally recognized by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia before 2031-01-01, and negatively otherwise. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves positively or ambiguously, this question resolves ambiguously", "prediction": "56%"} +{"title": "Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?", "desc": "In 2020, Israel [normalized](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords) relations with the [United Arab Emirates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_Arab_Emirates_relations), [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain%E2%80%93Israel_normalization_agreement), and [Morocco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Morocco_normalization_agreement) in the [Abraham Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords). This comes in the face of [increasing cooperation](https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-new-us-israel-uae-india-minilateral-in-a-changing-west-asia/) between the United States, Israel, and the Gulf countries who all face a threat from Iran and [have](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran#United_States_views) [expressed](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210927-iran-s-nuclear-program-has-crossed-all-red-lines-israel-pm-1) [concern](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-nuclear-activity-is-concerning-says-saudi-official-2021-07-09/) about Iran's nuclear program. A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/) asked if Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel in 2021.", "resc": "If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves positively (i.e. the Iranian Regime credibly states it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports), then this question will resolve positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the State of Israel is legally recognized by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia before 2031-01-01, and negatively otherwise. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. If [the Iran nuke question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) resolves negatively or ambiguously, this question resolves ambiguously", "prediction": "56%"} +{"title": "Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8154/us-ban-proposal-on-hydrazine-by-2025/)\n\n----\n\nTen years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\n\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.' The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\n\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called [‘Green Propellants.'](https://www.nasa.gov/centers/wstf/testing_and_analysis/propellants_and_aerospace_fulids/green_propellants.html) Although the topic has been raised about [20 years ago](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Green_Propellant_for_Space_Propulsion), NASA's most important technical demonstration mission for green propellants [GPIM](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/index.html) was launched June 2019. A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that, the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns and no environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project life-cycleare considered to be ‘green' – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine and its derivatives. Fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green' fuels in the framework of Space Propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. \n\nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \n\nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.\n\n***Will there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the European Commission makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before January 1, 2025. It is not necessary for this proposal to receive a vote or become law to resolve this question.", "prediction": "22%"} +{"title": "Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a European Commission proposal to ban hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8153/proposal-to-ban-hydrazine-in-eu-by-2025/)\n\n----\n\nTen years ago [(mid 2011)](https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-table/-/dislist/details/0b0236e1807da31d) the classic propellant hydrazine was included in the list of substances of very high concern for authorization (SVHC) by [REACH legislation](https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/legislation) of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). Hydrazine is one of the high performance monopropellants with low flame temperature, which makes it an efficient propellant. However, its toxicity to humans and environment has put, firstly, an economic burden on using such propellant during various development and operation phases. Secondly, an ethical burden toward the environment if such sense to be considered. It is worthy to note that hydrazine is not just an appealing efficient propellant for Space-use, but it is also seems to take a critical role in aeronautical military applications [such as fueling the auxiliary power units](https://web.archive.org/web/20160304084802/http:/oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065595) of the F-16 fighters and Eurofighter Typhoon.\n\nSpeaking of today in 2021/2022 and from a technical point of view, the economical as well as the environmental hazards concerns are taken seriously into account when considering ‘space mission analysis & design.' The latter two aspects when coupled are crucial during the conceptualization of a given space mission as well as developing modern spacecraft critical components such as the propulsion systems.\n\nBasically, space industry is currently oriented toward adopting the so-called ‘Green Propellants.' A very simple technical definition for Green Propellants can state that the propellants possessing no (or very marginal) health concerns or environmental hazards either in storage, transportation, or operation phases of a project lifecycle, are considered to be ‘green' – this would opt out propellants with high-toxicity like hydrazine, but fossil hydrocarbons are not yet considered ‘non-green' fuels in the framework of Space propulsion applications in contrary to fuels in automobile industry. More detailed technical definitions can be referenced in the these academic articles: [Article 1](http://yadda.icm.edu.pl/baztech/element/bwmeta1.element.baztech-71f98242-5541-4f80-a02b-8b601f7fe31b), [Article 2](https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/1/20/htm#B3-aerospace-08-00020).\n\nCurrent Green Propellants industry is reaching maturity that several global research efforts have already provided commercially available and space-tested green propellants. Examples are: the US Air Force developed propellant AF-M315E (currently known and commercialized as [ASCENT](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/tdm/green/gpim-nears-completion.html)); the European [LMP-103S](https://www.ecaps.space/hpgp-performance.php) developed by Bradford ECAPS; and the Japanese [HNP-family](https://encyclopedia.pub/7693) of green monopropellants developed by [IHI Aerospace Co., Ltd](https://www.ihi.co.jp/ia/en/products/space/pinot/pinot-g/en/index.html). These propellants are suitable for spacecraft use in in-space propulsion, usually for the [small spacecraft class](https://www.nasa.gov/smallsat-institute/sst-soa-2020). \n\nThere were rumors among the aerospace European community ([particularly since 2017](https://spacenews.com/hydrazine-ban-could-cost-europes-space-industry-billions/)) that EU would ban completely the use of hydrazine by 2021, so far nothing is clear however about this intention.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any branch of the US federal government makes a formal proposal to ban Hydrazine and Hydrazine-derivative spacecraft fuels before January 20, 2025. It is not necessary for this proposal to recieve a vote or become law to resolve this question", "prediction": "8%"} +{"title": "Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?", "desc": "From [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/573653-yangs-new-party-will-be-called-the-forward-party),\n\n> Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang's new third party will be called \"The Forward Party,\" he reportedly says in his upcoming book. \n\n> Business Insider reported that the name was revealed near the end of Yang's book entitled \"Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy.\"\n\n> The book also details the principles that will guide Yang's party, including \"ranked-choice voting and open primaries,\" \"fact-based governance\" and \"human-centered capitalism.\" It will also promote a \"universal basic income,\" an idea that helped him gain some traction in the 2020 presidential primary. \n\n> Yang also criticizes the \"duopoly\" of America's two-party system which he claimed was not made to handle the \"cascade of crises\" that the U.S. has recently endured, Business Insider said.\n\nWill Yang's Forward Party take off by February 1st 2029?", "resc": "This question resolves positively if any member of Congress, or the president, is at some point while holding office a member of the Forward Party before February 1st 2029. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n\nCredible media will be used for resolution", "prediction": "2.5%"} +{"title": "Will a major cryptid discovery be made by 2040?", "desc": "Across the world, people report seeing unidentified or out-of-place animals: those unknown to science, thought to be long extinct, or with strange abilities, behaviours or physiologies. \n\n\"Nessie\", \"Bigfoot\" and the \"Yowie\" are iconic figures that many people want to exist. More prosaically, people report seeing [Tasmanian tigers](https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-02-24/tasmanian-tiger-thylacine-sighting-debunked-pademelon/13186806) (extinct since the 1930s) as well as [big cats in the Australian bush](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-13/could-the-lithgow-panther-actually-exist/9116232).\n\nSometimes these observations serve an ideological purpose, as with [creationists who say reports of dinosaurs and other prehistoric animals present in the current day or recent history challenge the theory of natural selection](https://theconversation.com/at-the-evangelical-creation-museum-dinosaurs-lived-alongside-humans-and-the-world-is-6-000-years-old-142145). \n\nOther times they are more or less obvious hoaxes, or clear examples of people fooling themselves. \n\nCounter examples often given by cryptozoologists are the okapi, once considered a mythical jungle horse by Europeans; the coelacanth, a \"living fossil\"; the giant squid, which might explain \"kraken\" sightings; and the platypus, a seemingly impossible egg-laying mammal. \n\nNotably, these discoveries are decades or centuries old, and half of them are ocean-dwelling. But while Occam's razor, ecology and evolutionary science suggest cryptozoologists are wrong about most cryptids, are they wrong about all of them? \n\nI have designed the question in this way because I'm interested in questions that resolve positive if any one of many improbable outcomes come true, as a way of allowing for predictions on questions that most people would say are below 1% probability.", "resc": "Resolves positive if any of the following are satisfied: \n\n* **One of the following \"extinct\" species is found alive or recently dead:** A living Tasmanian tiger, mammoth, passenger pigeon, Steller's sea cow, quagga, dodo or great auk is discovered.\n* **Phantom cats:** The existence of big cats (Panthera genus, cheetah or cougar) in Australia or Western Europe is confirmed, *including* evidence of mating in the wild. \n* **Bigfoot, yowie or sasquatch:** Great apes are discovered that are native to anywhere other than Africa or South-East Asia. This can be an existing species or an entirely new one, as long as it is not considered to have been recently (last 50 years) introduced to the area. \n* **Loch Ness monster and friends:** A new species of megafauna (adults routinely exceed 45 kilograms) is discovered in Loch Ness, the Okanagan Valley, Lake Manitoba, Lake Ikeda or Lake Kussharo. \n* **Mokele-mbembe:** A new species of gigantic reptile (adults routinely exceeding 1 tonne) or rhinocerous is discovered in the Congo River Basin. \n* **Chupacabra:** A new species of vertebrate is discovered in Puerto Rico that is observed killing livestock by drinking their blood.\n* **Mongolian death worm:** A new species of large invertebrate (adults routinely exceed one foot in length) is discovered in the Gobi Desert. \n* **Pterodactyls:** A new species is discovered that descends from the Pterosauria clade. \n\nIn all cases, the test is whether the scientific consensus changes in the face of convincing evidence - for example, DNA or a physical specimen recovered. It is not enough that a minority of scientists in the relevant field are convinced.\n\nIn the absence of convincing DNA evidence or a physical specimen, scientific consensus will be considered established if more papers arguing for the discovery appear in journals of [SENSE top-ranked publishers (A rating)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rankings_of_academic_publishers#SENSE_rankings) than against over a two-year period, with at least 10 papers appearing total", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be the richest person in the world by 2050?", "desc": "*Related Queston on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3612/will-elon-musk-be-the-richest-person-in-the-world-at-any-point-during-the-2020s/)\n\n----\n\nSam Bankman-Fried is currently [the richest person in crypto](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/) as well as [the richest person under 30](https://www.forbes.com/video/6275693545001/the-richest-person-under-30-in-the-world/?sh=75f95349128d). He [plans on donating the majority of his wealth to effective charities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2050, Sam Bankman-Fried is the richest person in the world according to the [Bloomberg Billionaire Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) or [Forbes' List of Billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#96d3c6f3d788). It is not necessary for Bankman-Fried to maintain this position for any length of time, so long as Bankman-Fried's estimate of wealth is accurate (not reported in error).\n\nIf both Bloomberg and Forbes do not regularly update and report this information during this period, Metaculus may select an alternative credible source at their discretion, or resolve as **Ambiguous**", "prediction": "0.1%"} +{"title": "Will the next James Bond be female?", "desc": "James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.\n\nIt is widely understood that *No Time To Die* will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation of whether the next Bond character will be female:\n\n* [\"I think we've watched the guys do it for the last 40 years, get out of the way, guys, and put a woman up there,\" - Brosnan](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a28963502/pierce-brosnan-female-bond/)\n* [\"The Next James Bond Should Be A Woman\" - Screen Rant](https://screenrant.com/daniel-craig-james-bond-woman-actor-positive-good-why/)\n\nHowever, the producers (the Broccoli family) are understood to be against the idea. [He can be of any color, but he is male…](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30535775/next-james-bond-actor-will-not-be-woman-female-007/)", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if the next action film released by Eon films in the [James Bond universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_James_Bond_films) stars a main character who is a female intelligence officer.\n\nIf Eon Films releases no new action film in the James Bond Universe between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will unemployment be useful in forecasting the inflation rate in the same year given the inflation rate in the previous year?", "desc": "[Phillips curves](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve) are a class of models which propose connections between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate in an economy. If there is some such relationship, we might expect that knowing both today's unemployment rate and last year's inflation rate allows us to forecast this year's inflation rate better than just relying on last year's inflation rate alone. \n\nTo this end, let \\( \\pi_t, u_t \\) denote the inflation rate and the unemployment rate for the United States in the year \\( t \\) respectively. We can then run the following ordinary least squared regressions from the year \\( 2022 \\) to the year \\( 2031 \\) inclusive:\n\n\\[ (1)\\, \\, \\pi_t = \\alpha + \\beta \\pi_{t-1} + \\varepsilon_t \\]\n\\[ (2)\\, \\, \\pi_t = \\alpha + \\beta_1 \\pi_{t-1} + \\beta_2 u_t + \\varepsilon_t \\]\n\nThe [adjusted coefficient of determination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination#Adjusted_R2) is a measure of how much of the variance in the dependent variable is explained by the regression that corrects for the number of independent variables so as to control for the effect of overfitting. Ideally, the adjusted coefficient of determination only goes up when we add an additional independent variable to a regression if the additional variable is actually useful in predicting the dependent variable.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the adjusted coefficient of determination of the second regression strictly exceeds that of the first regression, and resolves negatively otherwise. Here, \\( \\pi_t \\) is the end-of-year CPI inflation for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) for the year \\( t \\) (meaning the year-on-year CPI inflation rate measured in December of that year) and \\( u_t \\) is the end-of-year unemployment rate for the United States obtained from [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) for the year \\( t \\)", "prediction": "49%"} +{"title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?", "desc": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a for-profit corporation.\n\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \n\n**Sister questions**\n\n- [Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/)\n- [University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/", "prediction": "85%"} +{"title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?", "desc": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\n\nNationalization of corporations that are working on AGI might happen due to the government perceiving the risks and power imbalance associated with a private organization with AGI technology to be unacceptable.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a nationalized organization.\n\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \n\n**Sister questions**\n\n- [Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/)\n- [University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a university?", "desc": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a university.\n\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \n\n**Sister questions**\n\n- [Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Government project develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8327/government-project-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?", "desc": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group working for a government project.\n\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university. \n\n**Sister questions**\n\n- [Nationalized organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8325/nationalized-organization-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Non-profit organization develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8328/non-profit-organization-develops-first-agi/)\n- [University group develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8326/university-group-develops-first-agi/)\n- [Corporation develops first AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8324/corporation-develops-first-agi/", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?", "desc": "The question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) asks _When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated?_.\n\nToday, research groups at both for-profit corporations and universities are working on developing general reasoning systems. Other possible institutions might be nationalized corporations, governments generally, and non-profit organizations.\n\nFor example, OpenAI was initially founded as a non-profit organization \"so that they could focus its research on creating a positive long-term human impact.\" ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#Motives))", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question [Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) was developed by a research group from a non-profit organization.\n\nIf the respective AI system is developed under a collaborative effort between two or more different institutions, the question resolves positively for both. For example, if OpenAI and UC Berkeley's CHAI had joined forces for the responsible project, this would count for both for-profit corporation and university.", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will there be a US-China war before 2035?", "desc": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resc": "For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.\n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "prediction": "11%"} +{"title": "Will there be a China-India war by 2035?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/)\n\n* [Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)", "resc": "For the purposes of this question, a China-India war is defined as the China and India collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of India or between India and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.\n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/)\n\n----\n\nDifferent nuclear conflict scenarios would hugely differ in how harmful they'd be in the near term and how much existential risk they create. In light of this, it would be helpful to have a clearer sense of whether it's plausible that there'd be a nuclear conflict in which a NATO state detonates a nuclear weapon, but the US doesn't. We ask this question to inform ourselves of the overall risk and determine how best to intervene to reduce this risk.", "resc": "The question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of an offensive detonation by the US in the same conflict. The first detonation in this conflict must occur between November 1, 2021 and January 1, 2030.\n\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2030, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\n\nDetonations will be considered part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).", "prediction": "63%"} +{"title": "Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?", "desc": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\n\nAccording to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS):\n\n>\"The number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 13,100 in early-2021. [...] the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. [...] The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons.\"\n\nWhether and by how much these numbers will rise or fall in the coming years has implications for the likelihood of nuclear and non-nuclear conflict and for how extreme the consequences of nuclear conflict could be. Those changes could also be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and manoeuvring and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk (such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) reported to be possessed across all countries on December 31, 2029 is greater than 20,000, according to the most recent [FAS estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on December 31, 2029. This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. It does not include weapons possessed by non-state actors.\n\nResolution criteria will come from [FAS](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat) or any other similar platform", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?", "desc": "For further context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields, and a list of such questions, see [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ldq0qAutq5Gam8dIRVxA_bzd0Rqz_pL3md8dosHoXjU/edit).\n\nThe total yield across all arsenals depends on both the number of weapons in states' stockpiles and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be in states' stockpiles and the largest yield weapon that'll be possessed. \n\nStockpiles include deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. If states that aren't currently nuclear-armed are nuclear-armed when the latest estimated published in 2029 are made, their stockpiles can count towards positive resolution.", "resc": "Resolution will be based on the most recent estimates published in 2029 by reputable sources such as the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If no reputable sources explicitly estimate the total yield across all states' nuclear stockpiles in 2029, resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins, who will:\n\n* ask an author of relevant publications (e.g., [Matt Korda](https://fas.org/expert/matt-korda/)) for an estimate, and/or \n\n* make an estimate based on what reputable sources say about things like the number of weapons of various types and the yield of those weapons, or the numbers and median yields of each states' nuclear stockpile", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?", "desc": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\n\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if, at any time between November 1, 2021 and January 1, 2030, the following two conditions are met:\n\n1. At least two credible sources (major governments, scientific associations, or intelligence services) claim that a country most likely has a nuclear weapon with a yield above 30 MT. This weapon may be stockpiled or deployed (but not in development, for example).\n\n2. No two independent credible sources with ability to evaluate such a claim contest / deny this claim. Media reports will be counted only to the extent that they reference to such a credible source; news organizations themselves cannot be expected to have means of evaluating such a claim on their own. In the case that there is significant disagreement between these claims Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, make a judgement about the credibility of these claims, or resolve ambiguously.\n\nThe Russian Poseidon/Status-6 device, for example, could resolve this question positively if it met these two conditions.\n\nThis question can resolve positively even if the country has only one such weapon, and even if it has such a weapon sometime before 2030 but no longer has such a weapon on January 1, 2030 (e.g., if it test detonates, offensively detonates, or dismantles the weapon before then)", "prediction": "8.5%"} +{"title": "Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?", "desc": "This is one of several questions in this tournament focused on nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics.\n\nWhether any country has very high-yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how to reduce that risk.", "resc": "The question will resolve positively if, by January 1, 2030, there are reports of such a test by reputable sources", "prediction": "14%"} +{"title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?", "desc": "", "resc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\n\n***If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause more than 1 billion fatalities within 10 years?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. At any point before January 1, 2100, a nuclear conflict begins in which there are more than 100 nuclear weapon detonations.\n\n2. For any such conflict, there are more than 1 billion deaths globally in the period between the first nuclear detonation and 10 years after the final detonation of the conflict.\n\nThis question is conditional on there being at least one nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations before 2100. That is, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the _first_ nuclear conflict after January 1, 2021 involves more than 100 detonations.)\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\n\n[fine-print]\nThis question will also resolve positively if a nuclear conflict meeting the above-mentioned condition clearly causes more than 1 billion fatalities but also causes sufficient civilizational collapse that there are no or extremely few remaining credible sources on any topic. We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus score seems unlikely to be tracked or cared about in that scenario, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.\n\nFor simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess credible sources on what fatalities should be considered to be \"caused\" by the nuclear conflict. \n\n[Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) are not counted towards positive resolution. Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack. “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf). “In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders” [(Barrett et al., 2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf).\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. At any point before January 1, 2100, a nuclear conflict begins in which there are more than 1,000 nuclear weapon detonations.\n\n2. For any such conflict, there are more than 4 billion deaths globally in the period between the first nuclear detonation and 10 years after the final detonation of the conflict.\n\nThis question is conditional on there being at least one nuclear conflict involving more than one thousand offensive nuclear detonations before 2100. That is, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the _first_ nuclear conflict after January 1, 2021 involves more than 1,000 detonations.)\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?", "desc": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange\n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nPotentially useful resources:\n\n* [The relationship between the smoke generated and the climate](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear#The_relationship_between_the_smoke_generated_and_the_climate)\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [Global temperature record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record) on Wikipedia", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the following two criteria are met:\n\n1. There is a nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by January 1, 2030 \n\n2. Average global temperature during the 3 years following the conflict is at least 3°C lower than the average global temperature during the 3 years prior to the conflict.\n\nThis question will resolve as **ambiguous** if there is no nuclear conflict with >100 offensive nuclear detonations by January 1, 2030.", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?", "desc": "The timing of nuclear conflict is important for estimating the likelihood and magnitude of [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) effects. Nuclear winter is a proposed scenario where a lot of smoke and dust particles rise into the stratosphere, where they can block sunlight. This can be caused by massive fires and firestorms that follow the nuclear explosions, or even by large enough nuclear explosions themselves. This lofting of smoke may be facilitated by the more intense sunlight of summer, meaning nuclear conflicts that occur in other seasons may cause less cooling. \n\nPotentially useful resources:\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the first nuclear strike in the first nuclear conflict between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030 happens between June 1 and September 30 inclusive (of any year). \n\nThis question will resolve as **ambiguous** if there is no nuclear conflict in this period.\n\n“Nuclear conflict” will be defined as a situation in which there is state use of at least one nuclear weapon against another actor's territory and/or forces. This state use could be deliberate, inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorised but by an actor in the state's chain of command (see fine print for definitions). This excludes non-state use of nuclear weapons.", "prediction": "32%"} +{"title": "If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?", "desc": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nPotentially useful resources:\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole.", "resc": "This question is conditional on there being 100 or more offensive nuclear detonations in a single conflict before January 1, 2050. That is, if that condition isn't met, this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. The above condition is met, and\n\n2. Average global cereal yields over the 5 years following the end of the nuclear conflict that met that above condition are at least 5% lower than the average in the 5 years preceding the nuclear conflict.\n\nCrop yield data will be taken from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (or another credible organization).\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.", "prediction": "83%"} +{"title": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?", "desc": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until February 5, 2026.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if either of the following conditions occur:\n\n1. There are credible reports such as by the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements) of New START being extended to at least February 5, 2027. \n\n2. There are credible reports of New START being replaced by another nuclear arms control agreement that will last until at least February 5, 2027 and that US officials, Russian officials, and other credible sources describe as a successor to New START.", "prediction": "47%"} +{"title": "If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?", "desc": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\n\n>\"Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). [...] EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.\"\n\nOther questions in this tournament asks [how _likely_ a HEMP attack is by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/) and _how many_ such attacks would occur if at least one does (link will be added soon). This question is about _how much harm_ would occur if one or more HEMP attacks occur. For further context on this question, see [Nuclear risk research idea: Nuclear EMPs](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I_4XTKOytSIm4q--BH3cK8R7Yg7K-KbydKtPLTJJ90I/edit#heading=h.4afvzod1qk1t) and [[rough notes] Harms from nuclear conflict via EMPs, fallout, or ozone depletion](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ws5i4_axkPLO95oIhVvE2_5b2xGcR-ktD9gRHUDjX_Y/edit).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one High-altitude Electromagnetic Pulse attack occurs before January 1, 2030 and the total fatalities caused by all HEMP attacks by January 1, 2030 is above 10 million, according to at least 3 estimates from credible sources by January 31, 2030. Fatalities from all HEMP attacks in this time period will be counted towards positive resolution, even if they are from separate countries and separate conflicts. \n\nThe question resolves negatively if at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2030 but there aren't at least 3 credible sources which estimate the total fatalities caused to be above 10 million. \n\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no HEMP attack occurs by 2030, or if fewer than 3 credible sources provide any estimates about the number of fatalities from HEMP attacks by 2030.\n\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n\n* a >1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or\n\n* a non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. At any point before January 1, 2100, a nuclear conflict begins in which there are more than 100 nuclear weapon detonations.\n\n2. For any such conflict, there are more than 1 million deaths globally in the period between the first nuclear detonation and 10 years after the final detonation of the conflict.\n\nThis question is conditional on there being at least one nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations before 2100. That is, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if that condition isn't met. (But this condition doesn't require that the _first_ nuclear conflict after January 1, 2021 involves more than 1,000 detonations.)\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.", "prediction": "99%"} +{"title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n* [Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n\n* [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n\n* [Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\n\n----\n\nAs stated on [another question about extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/):\n\n>\"N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\"", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the human population falls to zero within 50 years of the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2100) which involves >1,000 offensive nuclear detonations. For simplicity, we will consider detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of another detonation (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations by January 1, 2100.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" are members of a species most of whose members could at some point in their lives reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance (even if young or old members of the species could not do so or a minority of members of the species could never do so). In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as \"extinction\".", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [Nuclear GC to cause (near) extinction](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n* [Would we recover if population falls <400m?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8105/would-we-recover-if-population-falls-400m/)\n\n* [Will humans go extinct by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/)\n\n* [Extinction if population falls <400 million?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/)\n\n----\n\nFor simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, 50 years after the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (before January 1, 2100) which involves >1,000 offensive nuclear detonations, humanity's population is below 400 million. This would include, but is not limited to, scenarios in which humanity is extinct. The resolution of this question is not affected by whether, 50 years after the final detonation, the population is stable, rising, or falling; it is only affected by whether it is below 400 million.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations by January 1, 2100.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"humans\" will be considered members of a species who could typically reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance. In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain >400 million beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider \"human\" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as population collapses.", "prediction": "37%"} +{"title": "Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will that cause >4 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8396/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n* [If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations, will humanity's population be <400 million 50 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8397/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)\n\n----\n\nDecisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. At any point before January 1, 2100, a nuclear conflict begins in which there are more than 100 nuclear weapon detonations.\n\n2. For the first such conflict, there are at least 100 million deaths globally in the period between the first nuclear detonation and 1 month after the final detonation of the conflict.\n\nThis question is conditional on there being at least one nuclear conflict involving more than one hundred offensive nuclear detonations before 2100. That is, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if that condition isn't met.\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different state pairings, unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.", "prediction": "72%"} +{"title": "Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?", "desc": "As of 2021, [nine states possess nuclear weapons](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-notebook/): Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, [in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction). \n\nA few other states [possessed nuclear weapons in the past but no longer do](https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/05/08/526078459/giving-up-nuclear-weapons-its-rare-but-its-happened): in particular, some former Soviet republics gave up their inherited nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union collapsed, and South Africa built nuclear weapons but then dismantled them in 1991. \n\nOther states have [secretly explored nuclear weapon development](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Unsanctioned_nuclear_activity) or have been found in violation of [the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons). Some countries have more [Breakout Capability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation#Breakout_capability) than others-- both [Japan](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11302/the-realist-prism-iran-nuclear-standoff-obscures-broader-proliferation-challenges) and [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran) have sufficient uranium and other resources to quickly develop nuclear weapons.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2035, at least 3 credible sources report that at least 10 countries have a deployable nuclear weapon.", "prediction": "69%"} +{"title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI?", "desc": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, for any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25 or more of the [Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs](https://www.billboard.com/charts/year-end/hot-100-songs) are created primarily by AI. \"Created Primarily by AI\" for the purpose of this question will mean having significant influence on the song's melody, harmony, rhythm, instrumental timbre and tone, and EQ mixing. Evidence for an AI's involvement can be provided by the song credits, statements by producers or publishers, and/or reputable media reports. If the Year-End Billboard Hot 100 Songs list does not exist through 2049, Metaculus Admins may select and announce a replacement source, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?", "desc": "Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3). It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, or even in general intelligence.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about the capabilities of AI in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the):\n\n>The worst hit will be artists like writers, painters, poets, and musicians, who will have to deal with a total saturation of artistic content by AI. By 2050 much of the words you read and content you consume will be generated by an AI [...]", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI. For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Fiction_Best_Sellers_of_2020). If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.\n\nTo qualify as being written by AI, authorship of the book must be credited to an AI or more than 75% of the content must be created by AI, according to publisher's statements or credible media reports", "prediction": "45%"} +{"title": "Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a \"top charity\" before 2027?", "desc": "GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating [14 charity areas](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) including breastfeeding promotion.\n\nThe following sections are quoted from GiveWell's [explanation of the topic](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/breastfeeding-promotion):\n\n“The World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF recommend early initiation of breastfeeding, exclusive breastfeeding to 6 months, and partial breastfeeding to age 24 months to improve infant and maternal health, but the majority of infants are not fed according to these guidelines. Mothers may not breastfeed as long or as intensively as they would like due to a lack of skills and support, so various maternal counselling and support interventions promote breastfeeding behaviour change.”\n\nEffectiveness for the following reasons: “We believe there is reasonably strong evidence that breastfeeding support programs can lead to increases in rates of exclusive breastfeeding up to 6 months (compared to some or predominant breastfeeding) and breastfeeding duration, as recommended by WHO/UNICEF. Their impacts on exclusive breastfeeding may be larger in low-income countries. There is additional evidence that increasing breastfeeding reduces diarrhoea morbidity, which likely leads to reductions in childhood mortality from diarrhoea. It may also cause additional benefits that we have not yet vetted.”", "resc": "This question resolves positively if GiveWell publishes a recommendation that grants be given to support breastfeeding promotion or on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a breastfeeding promotion charity is designated a top charity before December 31, 2026.\n\nThis may happen in the following ways:\n\n- GiveWell writes “yes” in the column “Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?” in the “breastfeeding promotion” row of the GiveWell [program reviews spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or the spreadsheet which supersedes this one (see below). \n- Givewell publishes a blog in which which they announce they are recommending a grant in the area of breastfeeding promotion\n- Givewell adds an incubation grant to a breastfeeding promotion charity on this page [https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants)\n- A GiveWell blog post announcing that a charity in the area of breastfeeding promotion is a “Top Charity”\n- GiveWell publishes a section on breastfeeding promotion on its [Top Charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) page", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will aerial drones deliver 100 million or more parcels in the US by 2050?", "desc": "Package delivery by drone has been a goal of companies such as Amazon, who in 2020 [won approval from the FAA to deliver packages by drone](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/amazon-prime-now-drone-delivery-fleet-gets-faa-approval.html).\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about drone delivery in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Buzzing drones of all shapes and sizes will be common the sky (last year Amazon won FAA approval for its delivery drone service, opening the door for this).\n\nAccording to the [Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index](https://www.pitneybowes.com/us/shipping-index.html) 20.2 billion parcels were [shipped in 2020 in the United States](https://www.pitneybowes.com/content/dam/pitneybowes/us/en/shipping-index/pb_parcelshippinginfographic_2021_final.pdf).\n\n[According to the USPS](https://pe.usps.com/businessmail101?ViewName=Parcels#:~:text=If%20your%20mailpiece%20isn't,value%20for%20your%20postage%20dollars.) \n\n>If your mailpiece isn't a postcard, Letter, or a flat (large envelope) , then it's a parcel.", "resc": "This resolves positively if credible estimates state that aerial drones delivered 100 million or more parcels in the United States in any year between 2021 and 2049, inclusive. Drones need not be responsible for the entire delivery chain, parcels shipped by truck to a distribution center where aerial drones complete the deliveries would qualify. The definition of a parcel will conform to the USPS definition (see the link and quote in the question background)", "prediction": "60%"} +{"title": "Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?", "desc": "The US' national debt has [grown significantly](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/), particularly during the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns over a potential debt crisis have been voiced repeatedly, particularly during [reoccurring legislative debates to raise the debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling#Legislative_history). Despite this, the US has had [very low interest rates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States#Negative_real_interest_rates) since 2010, both encouraging the US to continue borrowing at cheap rates, and signalling that lenders consider the US government to be a reliable and safe borrower.\n\nIf this were to escalate into a criss, the US could be so far behind on its debt that the IMF would be called upon to forgive some of their debt. Notably, the IMF provided debt service [for Greece in 2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis) and for [multiple Latin American Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_debt_crisis) in the 1980s.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the IMF executive board approves debt service relief on the US' debt any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?", "desc": "The Democracy Index is an index compiled and maintained by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based private company which publishes The Economist newspaper. \n\nThe EIU defines their index as \"[...] a snapshot of the state of world democracy for 165 independent states and two territories.\" The index itself is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism, civil liberties, the functioning of government, political participation, and political culture. The methodology, in turn, is simple: they ask 60 questions related to the aforementioned categories, and with the answers, they rank the countries as either a: democracy, flawed democracy, hybrid regime or authoritarian regime. \n\n[The rankings for 2020](https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2020/) depict a trend for the United States: namely, the United States has not won -- but has lost -- any points since the ranking was created in 2006. \n\nA good breakdown of the point system, and how points are awarded per category, is [available on Wikipedia.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index)", "resc": "If at any point in time the United States achieves a point lower than a 7 before 2040, the question resolves positively. If the United States never drops below a 7, the question resolves negatively. If the index is defunct any time before 2040, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nRelated Questions:\n\n- [What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?", "desc": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n--- \n\nWith tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point, it has been [reported](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-china-taiwan-tensions-rise-japan-begins-preparing-for-possible-conflict-11630067601) that Japan is considering becoming militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region. This is notable as Japan has not fought in any wars since the end of World War 2.\n\nThis question asks: will Japan fight on Taiwan's side if Taiwan is invaded by China?", "resc": "If China does not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2035, then this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If China *does* invade Taiwan, this question will resolve as **Yes** if Japan responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Chinese invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10923), China will be considered to have launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan if either of these occur:\n\n* The [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/) and the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) **both** report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.\n\n* At least 1,000 military personnel from the [People's Liberation Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army) have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.\n\nJapan will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Chinese infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the Japanese government or Japanese military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Chinese nationals, will count", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will the price of water on the NQH20 hit $2,500 (2021 USD) per acre-foot by 2050?", "desc": "Water is an essential commodity and a fundamental precursor for human life. Historically, it's treated like a public good and is highly subsidized by the government. This can hinder price discovery in markets, which ultimately disjoints supply from demand. Consequently, water has been very cheap, even in regularly arid areas like California or Nevada. Many people believe that water should be traded like other commodities.\n \nIn late 2018, the [Nasdaq Veles California Water Index](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/nqh2o) began tracking the prevailing market price for water transactions, priced weekly in US dollars per acre-foot. Although water won't swing global financial markets like oil or gold does ([it's too cheap and heavy to trade across long distances](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-08/why-water-won-t-make-it-as-a-major-commodity)), trading water more locally can aid in price discovery/uncertainty and waste mitigation. Starting in December 2020, futures can now be traded on the index.\n \nThe [current spot price of water on the NQH20](https://www.waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) in September 2021 is above $900, up from $500 in September 2020 and $200 in September 2019. [In the past](https://e360.yale.edu/features/as-water-scarcity-increases-desalination-plants-are-on-the-rise), an acre-foot of water from the Colorado River was quoted at $1200 and an acre-foot of water from a desalination facility was quoted at $2200.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the price of water hits $2500, adjusted for inflation to 2021 USD, on the [NQH20](https://waterexchange.com/ca-water-index/) by 2050-01-01, 00:00 UTC. This question resolves negatively if the price of water does not hit $2500 by that date, and it resolves ambiguously if the NQH20 or a similar exchange doesn't continuously track California water prices up until 2050", "prediction": "78%"} +{"title": "Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?", "desc": "On Twitter Robin Hanson [proposed](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1444765968987824140),\n\n> OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.\n\nMatthew Barnett [replied](https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1444767518070132737),\n\n> I agree to this bet.", "resc": "This question resolves positively in the event that Matthew Barnett (or his descendants) publicly concedes the bet to Robin Hanson, and resolves negatively in the event that Robin Hanson (or his descendants) publicly concedes to Matthew Barnett. In the event that one party declares victory but the other party does not concede, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in resolving the bet.\n\nRelated question: [When will the US labor force participation rate fall below 10%?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8480/us-labor-force-participation-rate-below-10/", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?", "desc": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are redistributed according to the post–2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden [has stated that he intends to run for re-election to a second term](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/25/biden-run-reelection-2024-478008), although no official statements of candidacy have been filed as of November 3, 2021.\n\nFormer president Donald Trump has heavily hinted (see [numerous comments on this question](www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/)) that he plans to seek the presidency in 2024, but has likewise not filed an official statement of candidacy as of November 3, 2021.\n\nAs of early November 2021, [President Biden's approval rating stands at approximately 43% according to FiveThirtyEight.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ ) This is the lowest level of approval yet seen in his presidency.", "resc": "This question asks whether, contingent on the 2024 US presidential election being a contest between Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden and Republican nominee Donald J. Trump, will Donald J. Trump receive at least 270 votes in the electoral college, as certified by Congress in January 2025? If so, this question resolves positively. If the contest is Biden v Trump and Biden wins, this question resolves negatively. If the contest is not Biden v Trump, this question resolves ambiguously", "prediction": "51%"} +{"title": "In 2050, will at least half of college students in the US be studying exclusively remotely or online?", "desc": "Technological advancement has enabled meetings and presentations to happen increasingly online. Some believe this will reduce the need for in-person education in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n>The education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\n\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics, in the fall of 2019 [17.6% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions were exclusively enrolled in distance education courses](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80).", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if in the year 2050, at least 50% of students enrolled in degree-granting postsecondary institutions are exclusively enrolled in distance education courses, according to the [National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)](https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=80). If the NCES no longer reports this data, reliable alternate data sources may be used. If the NCES or alternate sources provide multiple data releases for the year 2050 (for example, a set of statistics for each semester) the result showing the largest share exclusively enrolled in distance education courses will be used.\n\nIn the event postsecondary education is no longer in a similar form as it was at the time the question was written, admins may use their discretion to determine if comparable data can be found for resolution and, if not, may resolve the question ambiguously", "prediction": "35%"} +{"title": "By 2050, will there be fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US?", "desc": "The [skyrocketing cost of college education](https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/cpi2020.png?x91208) in the the United States has led many to speculate on how costs can be brought under control or if they'll continue to rise. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about college education in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>The education bubble will have popped and in 2050 the majority of education will take place online. A combination of private tutors and MOOCs and testing centers will have become the most common form of education. Students will compile credits from these different courses for different degrees. Colleges and universities will have lost much of their prestige and most mid-tier institutions will be closed or closing.\n\nAccording to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) there were [768 public 4 year colleges in the US in the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If this number fell under 400 by 2050, that would be a drop of 48%.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are fewer than 400 public 4-year colleges in the US in any year after 2018, up to and including the 2049-2050 school term, according to [NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_105.50.asp?current=yes). If NCES no longer reports this data, other credible sources may be used. If the school year is no longer over a similar period, the final term can be any period which ends in 2050", "prediction": "32%"} +{"title": "Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?", "desc": "Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, as [defined](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF11150.pdf) by the U.S. Department of Defense, are “weapon system[s] that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator.” \n\nSuch systems, colloquially known (especially by their opponents) as \"Killer Robots\" or \"Slaughterbots\" have received negative attention from a number of actors, including a coalition known as the [Campaign to Stop Killer Robots](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/). \n\nThese activists appear to prefer a legally-binding instrument of international law, likely in treaty form, as a [\"Killer Robot Ban Treaty\"](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/stop-killer-robots/we-can-stop-killer-robots/). Such a treaty has received support from several countries, as [tracked by Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/10/killer-robots-growing-support-ban), and been discussed at the working group of the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (ibid.). \n\nFormal and legally-binding arms control has proven elusive however, leading some to question the \"[end of arms control](https://direct.mit.edu/daed/article/149/2/84/27315/The-End-of-Arms-Control).\" Moreover, several of the most powerful militaries in the world, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia, [strongly oppose such a ban](https://www.google.com/search?q=Killer+Robot+Ban&rlz=1C5CHFA_enGB978GB978&oq=Killer+Robot+Ban&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30j69i60.2167j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8). \n\nMoreover, a Killer Robot Ban Treaty faces a [fundamental definitional problem](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3348356), as weapons systems like \"homing munitions\" have elements of autonomy under conventional definitions, but are an integral part of many military operations, and have been in use since World War II, and as broad definitions may exclude many applications of artificial intelligence. Senior defense leaders, including Bob Work, the \"[father of the Pentagon's push for Artificial Intelligence](https://breakingdefense.com/2019/08/campaign-to-stop-killer-robots-unethical-immoral-bob-work/)\" have also criticized such a ban.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **YES** if, by Jan 1, 2031, the United States Government formally agrees to an international treaty which purports to ban either the possession or the use of Lethal Autonomous Weapons as defined above, and is announced on the [U.S. Department of State Office of Treaty Affairs](https://www.state.gov/treaties-in-force/) or a mainstream news source or wire service (e.g. AP or New York Times), or **NO** otherwise.", "prediction": "12%"} +{"title": "By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?", "desc": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716), where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\n\nSome expect embryo screening for health defects to gain in popularity in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about embryo screening in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Sex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal.\n\nAccording to the National Center for Health Statistics there were [3.75 million babies born in the US in 2019 and 3.6 million in 2020](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-05-05/us-birth-rates-continue-to-fall). According to the CDC, approximately [1.9% of infants born each year were conceived using assisted reproductive technology (ART)](https://www.cdc.gov/art/artdata/index.html), the main type of which is IVF. One study estimates that [4% to 6% of all IVF cycles in the US used PGD](https://www.fertstert.org/article/S0015-0282(07)01216-2/fulltext).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 20% of babies born in the United States in any year before 2050 underwent embryo screening or PGD, according to credible media reports, statements by the US government, or public health agencies. Screening must have taken place before the embryo was implanted in the uterus", "prediction": "49%"} +{"title": "Will Meta report 1 billion active users by December 31, 2031?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n- [When will a technology replace screens?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/)\n\n----\n\nIn [the promo video of Meta Platforms](https://youtu.be/4zppKxiIPiA?t=154) Mark Zuckerberg has said, that within a decade (from November 2021) Meta Platforms can reach a billion people.\n\n- Facebook in its [Q3 2021 Earnings](https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2021/q3/FB-09.30.2021-Exhibit-99.1.pdf) reports 1.93 billion daily users and 2.91 billion monthly users.\n- In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1098630/global-mobile-augmented-reality-ar-users/), there were 0.6 billion worldwide mobile AR users.\n- In 2020, according to [this](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1017008/united-states-vr-ar-users/), \"in 2018, 59.5 million people used AR at least once per month in the United States. The corresponding figure for 2022 was forecast to reach over 95 million users.\"", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Meta Platforms, Inc. (or company which will be a rebranded version of Metaverse) reports one billion or more (\\( \\geq 10^9\\)), daily active users on its \"screenless\" platforms (AR or VR glasses, holograms, etc. combined) in any public financial report between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2032.\n\nFor a more precise definition of technology being \"screenless\" see [related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/)", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Quantum-enhanced machine learning by 2040?", "desc": "", "resc": "[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) is a type of computation that harnesses the collective properties of quantum states, such as superposition, interference, and entanglement, to perform calculations. [Quantum supremacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_supremacy) or quantum advantage is the goal of demonstrating that a programmable quantum device can solve a problem that no classical computer can solve in any feasible amount of time (irrespective of the usefulness of the problem).\n\nWhile machine learning algorithms are used to compute immense quantities of data, [quantum machine learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_machine_learning) utilizes qubits and quantum operations or specialized quantum systems to improve computational speed and data storage done by algorithms in a program.\n\n***Will quantum-enhanced machine learning be demonstrated by 2040?***\n\nThis question will resolve as \"Yes\" if a single quantum computer satisfies all of the following criteria at any point between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2040:\n\n* unambiguously capable of quantum advantage on some possibly unrelated task\n* utilizing quantum effects for the purpose of enhancing machine learning; utilizing only classical part of a quantum computer is not sufficient\n* capable of baseline machine learning; we will define baseline as exceeding performance of either:\n * 85% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet with or without additional training data\n * [IMPALA](https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.01561v3) on any subset of at least 10 Atari games from the ALE on 200M steps\n * [BERT](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.04805) on any subset of at least 5 GLUE or SuperGLUE individual benchmarks\n * any other benchmark for classical machine learning that is significantly and unambiguously more difficult than all 3 baselines above\n\nThe question can resolve based on a blog post, scientific paper or other type of announcement from a credible source. In case of significant ambiguity the question should default to waiting for independent replication before positive resolution.", "prediction": "66%"} +{"title": "By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?", "desc": "[Embryo screening](https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/find-a-program-or-service/penn-fertility-care/embryo-screening/treatments-and-procedures) is the process of examining the genome of an embryo to determine if certain genes or sets of genes are present (the technical term is [preimplantation genetic testing (PGD)](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/gynecology_obstetrics/specialty_areas/fertility-center/infertility-services/preimplantation-genetic-testing.html)). Examining embryos for genetic defects can allow prospective parents to select embryos without genetic defects to implant and carry to term. Currently this process is most prevalently used during [in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/in-vitro-fertilization/about/pac-20384716), where eggs are fertilized by sperm in a lab to create the embryo before being implanted into the uterus. IVF in its current form is generally intended to help parents who have trouble conceiving or may be at elevated risk of birth defects.\n\nEmbyro screening to predict/raise IQ [has been attempted](https://www.science.org/content/article/screening-embryos-iq-and-other-complex-traits-premature-study-concludes) since at least 2019, though it remains controversial and its effectiveness remains unknown. Other plausible means of raising IQ with genetic engineering include [gametogenesis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/) (a method of regressing cells into stem cells, then turning into sperm/egg cells, in an interative process), and [CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) (editing specific sections of DNA of live organisms with high precision).\n\nThe potential power and downsides of widespread genetic engineering have been a topic of science fiction for decades, including [Gattaca](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca) or the [Deus Ex](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deus_Ex) series, which imagine societies that are stratified into groups of those who have genetic enhancements and those who don't. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel offered the following predictions for the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Sex and reproduction will become even more separated, and screening multiple embryos for their health before implantation will be common, although not universal. Superficial genetic upgrades for babies (heterochromatic eyes, for instance) will be a trend among the super rich or pop stars. However, **there will be no genetic engineering that improves the fundamentals of human traits like intelligence** or athleticism or even anything like attractiveness above and beyond all-natural humans—the available technology will still be focused solely on avoiding downsides, like genetic diseases or disabilities. This will ultimately cure a lot of potential suffering, but not lead to some sci-fi split between the “geners” and the “normals,” or anything ridiculous like that.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if by January 1, 2050, there is at least one commercially available genetic engineering technique shown to raise a patient's IQ by 10 or more points on average. This procedure must be effective on >66% of the public; an intervention focused on patients with [down syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_syndrome), for example, does not qualify. Studies from medical journals, statements by government agencies or public health officials may be used as resolution sources if Metaculus Admins find them to be credible.\n\nA procedure can be considered \"commercially available\" if it is available to the general public for a total cost of less than 25% of the median household income for that nation in that year. \"Genetic engineering techniques\" include embryo selection, gametogenesis, gene therapy, CRISPR editing, and other forms of gene editing or artificial selection. For example in the case of embryo selection, the technique may resolve this question positively if it can select embryos with an average of >10 IQ gain over the median embryo for that patient. Adverse side effects of these procedures are irrelevant for the purposes of this question (with the exception that the patient must typically survive for at least 5 years following the procedure).\n\nResolution may be delayed up to 2060 to confirm the effectiveness of the genetic engineering techniques. If studies are unclear at this point, the resolution may be delayed, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins", "prediction": "55%"} +{"title": "Will more than 50% of US adults own a personal augmented reality device by 2050?", "desc": "The Merriam-Webster Dictionary [defines augmented reality (AR) as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/augmented%20reality)\n\n>an enhanced version of reality created by the use of technology to overlay digital information on an image of something being viewed through a device (such as a smartphone camera)\n\nSome expect AR devices to be much more prevalent in the future. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about augmented reality in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>By 2050 pretty much everyone will be wearing smart glasses for augmented reality, and eventually these glasses will replace a lot of phones (no one will carry a wallet in 2050).\n\nAccording to a PEW survey, [85% of US adults said they owned a smartphone in 2021](https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if anytime before January 1, 2050, a credible survey of adults in the US suggests that more than 50% of US adults own any type of personal augmented reality device.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a personal augmented reality device is defined as one which is portable and intended to accompany a person from place to place, and whose primary use is in augmented reality functions. \"Augmented reality functions\" are defined as producing digital information and images overlaid over the user's view of their real environment, which update in real time as the user moves and interacts with the digital and physical environment. A handheld smartphone which is occasionally used as an augmented reality device would not qualify (as AR is not its primary use).\n\nWhere there is reason to believe a survey captures a significant number of devices that do not qualify for question resolution the admins shall use their best judgement or use an alternate survey or method if available, or resolve the question as ambiguous at their discretion", "prediction": "65%"} +{"title": "Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?", "desc": "[The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text), commonly referred to as the “Biden infrastructure plan,” is projected to cost between $1 and $2 trillion. The administration has been careful to call their plans budget neutral in messaging, which is prompting some creative revenue gathering exercise.\n\nThe bill would create a new provision stating that digital asset “brokers” would need to issue IRS forms to certain users to obtain underpaid taxes. But the definition of broker would have included “any person who…is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person.” This language would include not only third-party service providers analogous to Bank Secrecy Act-regulated entities, but also passive network developers, miners, and node operators who have no access to the required data to issue the tax forms to begin with.\n\nSurprisingly, the nascent cryptocurrency policy community quickly and effectively [pushed back](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/07/cryptocurrency-infrastructure-bill-lobby-bitcoin/) against the provisions. A series of dueling amendments that would have expanded and pared back which groups should qualify as “brokers” resulted in a rather arcane [legislative discussion](https://decrypt.co/77841/biden-crypto-infrastructure-bill-amendments) over the distinctions between proof of work and proof of stake consensus mechanisms. Reports emanated that [high-ranking operatives](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ncr-v8A_bA) such as [Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/25/yellen-crypto-bitcoin-defi/) were lobbying aggressively in favor of the expansive broker language. Despite several days of textual back-and-forth, the parties did not reach a compromise and it was [sent back to the House](https://reason.com/2021/08/10/how-a-sneaky-crypto-crackdown-plot-blew-up-the-infrastructure-bill/) where it has remained.", "resc": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, by January 20, 2025, miners, cryptocurrency developers, node operators, or validators (under proof-of-stake blockchains) are required to issue tax reports (such as 1099s) to the parties of the transactions they mediate. This will resolve positively if this requirement is effective under US law (though compliance or enforcement of this law need not actually occur to resolve positively). This may resolve positively even if this provision is not part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but it is part of some future legislation signed before January 20, 2025", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "If the US Supreme Court hears a case on the Bank Secrecy Act by 2070, will they find it to be constitutional?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the US Supreme Court rule on the constitutionality of any part of the Bank Secrecy Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8522/date-of-scotus-decision-on-bank-secrecy-act/)\n\n----\n\nThe [Bank Secrecy Act of 1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act) was signed into law in 1970, giving US government agencies more capabilities to catch money laundering, criminal activity, and tax evasion. It was challenged promptly by several banks and the [ACLU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Secrecy_Act), resulting in the Supreme Court case [California Bankers Association v. Schulz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Bankers_Assn._v._Shultz). The Plaintiffs argued that the BSA violated customer's First and Fourth Amendment rights to privacy and Fifth amendment rights to Due Process.\n\nThe court decided 7-2 that the BSA was constitutional, with Justices William Brennan and William Douglas dissenting. The BSA survived another challenge in [United States v. Miller (1976)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Miller_(1976)), and the BSA has formed the basis of further expansions in the government's financial surveillance powers.", "resc": "If by 2070-01-01, the Supreme Court of The United States hears a case which challenges the constitutionality of Bank Secrecy Act of 1970, this question will resolve positively if the court decides it is constitutional. If the BSA is challenged on multiple points and the court finds any part of the act unconstitutional, this question will resolve negatively. If no qualifying cases are decided before 2070-01-01, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Will women receive at least 70% of bachelor's degrees in the US in the year 2050?", "desc": "Female educational attainment has made substantial gains over the past century in the United States. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics shows that the share of bachelor's degrees awarded to women in the US for the 1919-1920 school year was [34.2%, increasing to 57.4% for the 2018-2019 school year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d20/tables/dt20_318.10.asp?current=yes). Some expect this trend to continue. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about female educational attainment in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. This trend has been consistent for decades now, so I think there is good probability it will continue. In 2021, [women get the majority of all degrees](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/the-degrees-of-separation-between-the-genders-in-college-keeps-growing/2019/10/25/8b2e5094-f2ab-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html), from high school degrees all the way up to graduate school degrees. The access of billions of women to this socioeconomic opportunity will continue its building momentum. As of now something close to ~60% of all college degrees go to women: by 2050, it will be well above 70% [ ... ]", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 70% of all bachelor's degrees in the 2049-2050 school year are awarded to women, according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). If the NCES no longer publishes relevant data the highest credible estimate from other sources may be used. \"Female\" or \"women\" will be as defined by the NCES, or if the NCES no longer uses the terms male and female the sex or gender definition used by NCES will be used, so long as the ultimate representation represents either the share of degrees granted to those identifying as female or as women at time of graduation or who were female at birth. If alternate data sources are used any definition of female or woman that conforms to these resolution criteria is acceptable.\n\nIf bachelor's degrees no longer exist in a form comparable to the definition used by NCES for the data in the question background, admins may use their judgement to resolve based on statistics for similar post-secondary degrees, or resolve as **Ambiguous** at their discretion", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will median wages be higher for women than for men in the United States in 2050?", "desc": "Many studies have been attempted to measure the [gender pay gap in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_pay_gap_in_the_United_States). The [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) found median women's wages to be about 81% of men's. Some of this difference can be attributed to confounding variables (such as differences in types of occupation), though the unexplained remaining gap could be attributed to discrimination.\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about women in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>...while women's salaries are not as high on average as men's now, this has already [switched in urban areas](https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/03/14/a-different-kind-of-gender-gap-seven-places-where-women-earn-more-than-men), which is generally a predictive indicator, and therefore women's wages in the workplace will indeed be greater than men in terms of their salaries by 2050.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the median usual weekly real earnings for wage and salary workers age 16 and over are higher for women than men in the fourth quarter of 2050, according to the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](www.bls.gov/cps/earnings.htm). The data since 1979 is available in [this FRED chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IF6j) for men and women. If BLS stops publishing the relevant economic data, other credible data that provides a similar comparison between the median wages of adult men and women may be used.\n\nIf FRED no longer distinguishes data for men and women or definitions have changed, any data that compares wages on the basis of either sex at birth or current sex or gender identity as may be used for resolution. Where different estimates would result in a different resolution, Metaculus Admins may resolve according to the most high-quality data or resolve ambiguously at their discretion", "prediction": "36%"} +{"title": "Will over half of the US Senate be women in 2050?", "desc": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted the following about women in the US in the year 2050 in a [blog post](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the) published August 25, 2021:\n\n>By 2050 there will be near-domination of society and the economy by women. [...] Just as the invention of the teenager as a consumer category reshaped popular culture, the ever increasing rise of independent women with disposable income will reshape society, from what entertainment is produced to who is an **elected official.**\n\nAccording to the [Pew Research Center, describing the 117th Congress](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/15/a-record-number-of-women-are-serving-in-the-117th-congress/)\n\n>In the Senate, women hold 24 of 100 seats, one fewer than the record number of seats they held in the last Congress.\n\nHattie Caraway became the [first woman elected to the US Senate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_United_States_Senate) in 1931, though women remained under 10% of the senate membership until 2001.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, on January 1, 2050, more than half of US Senators publicly identify as women", "prediction": "28%"} +{"title": "Will polygamy be legal nationwide in the US by 2050?", "desc": "Gay marriage has gained full legal recognition in the US, and some have speculated that [polyamory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) may be next to receive the same treatment. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, [polyamory is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polyamory)\n\n>the state or practice of having more than one open romantic relationship at a time\n\nwhile [polygamy is defined as](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/polygamy)\n\n>marriage in which a spouse of either sex may have more than one mate at the same time\n\nCurrently, polygamy is [outlawed federally and in all 50 states in the US](https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/is-polygamy-illegal-in-the-united-states-31807). However, [several cities in Massachusetts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyamory_in_the_United_States) have passed local ordinances [extending the benefits of domestic partnerships to those in polyamorous relationships](https://www.albanyupdate.com/massachusetts-city-provides-legal-recognition-for-polyamorists/).\n\nNeuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about polyamory in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>Polyamory, the fastest growing cultural movement when it comes to novel forms of relationships, will continue to increase and become more open in the public eye and likely be legalized nation-wide by 2050.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any time between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), polygamy is legal federally and in all states in the United States. Resolution may be provided by credible media reports or official US government sources.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, the legality of polygamy must be indifferent to sex or gender; that is, it should permit both a marriage of one man with multiple women, one woman with multiple men, or any arrangement of legally recognized sexes/genders. Legally-recognized polygamous marriages must allow at least 3 members to be married, though they need not all share equal rights", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will Brian Riedl win a bet that average interest paid on US federal debt exceeds 4.6% before 2051?", "desc": "[Brian Riedl](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/brian-riedl) is a senior fellow at the [Manhattan Institute](https://www.manhattan-institute.org/about), a think tank which describes its mission as follows\n\n>...to develop and disseminate new ideas that foster greater economic choice and individual responsibility.\n\nAlan Cole blogs about the economy at [Full Stack Economics](https://fullstackeconomics.com/about/) and is a former senior economist with the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress where he advised Senator Mike Lee (R-UT).\n\nOn November 9, 2021, Brian Riedl [proposed the following bet](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458195379560853514)\n\n>I'm willing to bet you that the average interest rate paid on the federal debt exceeds 4.6% at some point within 30 years (CBO assumes it gradually rises to 4.6% by 2051).\n\nAlan Cole accepted. [They agreed](https://twitter.com/Brian_Riedl/status/1458197815130300425) to resolve the bet based on the average interest rate as currently calculated by CBO in its economical historical data.\n\nIn [*The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook*](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57038) published by the CBO in March of 2021, the CBO projects\n\n>...the average interest rate on federal debt initially decreases from 1.4 percent in 2021 to 1.2 percent in 2024 and then increases to 4.6 percent by 2051.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Brian Riedl wins the bet against Alan Cole, according to mutual agreement by both parties. In the event the bet is not resolved in a timely manner upon apparent satisfaction of the bet terms or a situation appears ambiguous under the terms of the bet, the resolution criteria in the fine print will be used for resolution.", "prediction": "41%"} +{"title": "Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?", "desc": "[Racial and ethnic diversity in the US](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/31/10-demographic-trends-that-are-shaping-the-u-s-and-the-world/) has steadily increased, but minorities are still [underrepresented at the senior and executive level of US companies](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/companies-are-making-bold-promises-about-greater-diversity-theres-a-long-way-to-go.html).\n\nSome have speculated that this is likely to change. Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about diversity in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>[Princeton's incoming class for 2021 is 68% non-white](https://www.princeton.edu/news/2021/04/06/extraordinary-year-princeton-offers-admission-1498-students-class-2025#:~:text=Princeton%20University%20has%20offered%20admission,increase%20from%2017%25%20last%20year.). In fact, currently across the Ivy League (except Dartmouth), whites are significantly underrepresented in their incoming student bodies in proportion to the overall population. This trend of outperformance by minorities in the upper echelons of society like at elite universities, major corporations, and in creative endeavors (books published, movies starred in, etc), will continue and intensify—even just by demographics alone 2050 America will itself be majority non-white.\n\nEach year *Fortune* magazine publishes the [*Fortune* 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortune_500), a list of the top 500 US companies by revenue. [Richard L. Zweigenhaft](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/teaching/zweigenhaft.html), Dana Professor of Psychology at Guilford College, [published data showing](https://whorulesamerica.ucsc.edu/power/diversity_update_2020.html) that the share of *Fortune* 500 CEOs who are not white males has been increasing over time. According to his numbers for 2020, 92.6% of *Fortune* 500 CEOs are white.", "resc": "This resolves positively if a credible estimate indicates that at most 70% of the CEOs of the *Fortune* 500 list for the year 2050 are non-Hispanic white. In the event *Fortune* does not publish a list of top 500 companies for 2050 other credible lists of the top 500 US companies in the year 2050 may be used for resolution. If credible estimates disagree, the estimate indicating the lowest proportion of non-Hispanic white CEOs will be used", "prediction": "55%"} +{"title": "Will smoking and sex be less prevalent in the United States in 2050 than in 2021?", "desc": "Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel wrote the following about social behavior in the year 2050 in a [blog post published August 25, 2021](https://erikhoel.substack.com/p/futurists-have-their-heads-in-the)\n\n>All socially risky behavior is on the decline, and has been in the decade since social media and the introduction of the smart phone. People in 2050 will have less sex, do less drugs, have less affairs, smoke less, and conform more in their opinions.\n\nA survey from Gallup finds that [16% of US adults had smoked a cigarette in the last week in 2021](https://news.gallup.com/poll/353225/smoking-vaping-remain-steady-low.aspx). And an [article in the Washington Post](https://archive.md/p3uiO) reports that 23% of US adults had not had sex in the past year in 2018.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any credible surveys of US adults in the year 2050 report that the share of adults who have smoked in the past week and the share of adults who have had sex in the past week were both lower than in the year 2021. Comparisons between 2050 and 2021 must be of similar methodology (see fine print) to count towards resolution. If no comparable surveys can be found for both smoking and sex by the resolution date of December 31, 2054, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. This question will resolve as **Yes** if any credible surveys would result in positive resolution, conflicting surveys will be considered irrelevant.", "prediction": "65%"} +{"title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?", "desc": "In 2014, liraglutide was [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later by [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes about [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61375-1) [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158) of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\n\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs, [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726) another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses of [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice. [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesity [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It's marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\n\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it's reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly. [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183) discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\n\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk of [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272) and [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109) cancer in lab rodents. Yet [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z) including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don't yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observational [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563) are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk. \n\nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutide [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118) [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141) by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dying [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(19)30249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing and [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563).", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for Semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide 2.4 mg weekly injection) by 2027-01-01. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", "desc": "[Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) (also known as Wegovy, Ozempic, or Rybelsus) is a drug [approved in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. However, it does come with the inconvenient administration method of a once-per-week injection.\n\nSemaglutide is a (modified) protein, which creates technical challenges. First, it's expensive to produce and requires specialized facilities. Second, it's most naturally administered as an injection, because if a person ingests it, it gets digested and inactivated just like the proteins in a piece of cheese. However, Novo Nordisk has developed technology that allows the protein to be absorbed intact from the digestive tract into circulation, allowing it to be delivered in pill form. The oral semaglutide pill is FDA approved for the treatment of diabetes and marketed as Rybelsus.\n\nOral semaglutide is convenient for patients, but it has not yet been approved for the treatment of obesity. Novo Nordisk [plans to initiate](https://www.pharmatimes.com/news/novo_nordisk_plans_study_of_oral_semaglutide_in_obesity_1367847) a phase 3a trial of oral semaglutide for obesity this year (2021), suggesting that the company will probably seek regulatory approval for the treatment of obesity. The trial will last 68 weeks.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve an orally-administered form of Semaglutide (AKA Rybelsus) for the purpose of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company", "prediction": "80%"} +{"title": "Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", "desc": "Pharmaceutical researchers have recently made progress in weight-loss management with the development of [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide) which has demonstrated [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% weight loss in subjects. Side effects are relatively minor, and it is administered as a once-per-week injection.\n\nUltimately, non-protein “small molecule” drugs that activate GLP-1 receptors may offer advantages over proteins like semaglutide. These advantages include potentially lower cost of production in less specialized facilities, good oral availability, and longer shelf-life. In June of 2020, Pfizer presented [promising results](https://doi.org/10.2337/db20-353-OR) from a phase 1 trial of a small molecule GLP-1 receptor activator, PF-06882961, in people with type 2 diabetes. Over 28 days of treatment, the drug substantially improved blood glucose control and reduced body weight by 2-9%, depending on dose. Novo Nordisk may be [working in the area](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605701104) as well.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a small-molecule GLP-1-based drug for the purpose of weight loss by 2029-01-01.\n\n“Small molecule GLP-1-based drug” is defined here as a drug that is not based on a protein and is intended to act on the GLP-1 receptor as its primary biological target, or as a major biological target. For context, all drugs with current (2021) regulatory approval that target the GLP-1 system are based on proteins", "prediction": "67%"} +{"title": "Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?", "desc": "There have been a number of promising early results in drug research and development to treat obesity, particularly results with [Semaglutide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide). Novo Nordisk recently completed a [phase 1b trial](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00845-X) pairing semaglutide with the amylin analog cagrilintide. Over 20 weeks, the addition of cagrilintide nearly doubled the rate of weight loss caused by semaglutide alone, suggesting that in a longer trial the combination may equal the weight loss caused by bariatric surgery. The combination caused somewhat more gastrointestinal side effects than semaglutide alone, but there was no indication of serious adverse events.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve a paired form of semaglutide and cagrilintide (in any ratio) for the treatment of weight loss by 2027-01-01. This may include a successful development from Novo Nordisk, or any other pharmaceutical company. The approved drug may have any ratio of semaglutide and cagrilintide, but may not include any other active ingredient", "prediction": "43%"} +{"title": "By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?", "desc": "A [declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf) by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 was made available on 2021-10-29 and is based on information available through August 2021. Notably, it found wide agreement among the U.S. IC's [18 organizations](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/what-we-do/members-of-the-ic) on the following:\n> \n- \"SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December 2019.\"\n- \"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon\"\n- \"Most agencies also assess with low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered; however, two agencies believe there was not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way.\"\n- \"China's officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged\"\n\nHowever, while \"all agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident,\" the IC \"remains divided on the most likely origin of COVID-19\":\n>\n- \"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus\"\n- \"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology.\"\n- \"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information\"\n\nThe declassified report states that more information on the earliest cases may \"alter our evaluation of hypotheses\" and that, in the past, the \"identification of animal sources has taken years.\"", "resc": "This question will resolves as **Yes** if, at any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025, a majority of U.S. IC organizations that favor either the natural origin or lab leak hypotheses are said to favor the explanation that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab in Hubei. This means that only the IC organizations that expressly favor one explanation over the other will be considered for the purposes of this question. \n\nFor example, in the [most recent declassified assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf), four organizations favor the natural origin hypothesis (\"Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure\"), one IC organization favors the lab origin hypothesis (\"One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident\"), and three organizations do not favor either hypothesis (\"Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation\"). So in this case, there appear to be five IC organizations that favor one explanation or the other — four favor the natural origin hypothesis, and one favors the lab origin hypothesis. Since in this case 1/5 does not constitute a majority (>50%) of U.S. IC organizations that express support for either hypothesis, this would resolve negatively.\n\nNote that probabilistic statements do not have to be made to constitute an IC organization expressing support for one of two hypotheses. Vague verbiage — e.g. \"moderate confidence that SARS-CoV-2 most likely resulted from\" — would be sufficient to be counted as support for one hypothesis or the other so long as it is clear that one hypothesis is favored over the other. \n\nThis question will preferentially resolve on the basis of an updated declassified assessment by the U.S. Intelligence Community. However, this can also resolve on the basis of at least three credible media reports indicating that a majority of IC organizations favor one explanation over the other.", "prediction": "9%"} +{"title": "Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?", "desc": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \n\n\nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange [conditional on New START being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) or conditional it not being renewed/replaced in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)", "resc": "This question conditions on the following (i.e., it resolves ambiguously if this condition isn't met): New START is not renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, according to credible reports such as the [Arms Control Association]. By the absence of replacement by another nuclear arms control agreement we mean a situation when there are no new agreements after 2026 that both US officials and Russian officials describe as a successor to New START. No attempt will be made to determine whether the renewed or replacement treaty actually does have very similar terms to New START.\n\n\nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US between this question opening and 2035, defined here as at least one offensive nuclear detonation by the US on or over Russian territory and/or at least one offensive nuclear detonation made by Russia on or over US territory.\n\n\nA state (US or Russia) will be considered responsible for a nuclear detonation if either:\n\n(a) The state openly admits such responsibility (in a statement made by the President, Prime Minister, Minister/Secretary of Defense, the US Ambassador to Russia (or vice versa), a top military executive or a similarly important official)\n\n(b) Credible reports by multinational organizations conclude that the state was responsible\n\n(c) There are credible reports claiming the state was responsible and the state does not deny it.\n\nIf the state changes its claims (e.g. first admitting responsibility for the attack and then denying it), priority will be given to independent reports.\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n\n**See also:**\n\n* [Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/)\n\n* [Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8612/new-start-renewed-or-replaced-after-feb-2026/)", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?", "desc": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8540/global-agricultural-shortfall-by-2024/). \n\n[Denkenberger & Pearce (2016)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs13753-016-0097-2.pdf) write:\n\n\n>\"The uncertainty in the number of fatalities due to a 10% agricultural shortfall is very large. On the optimistic extreme, there could be aggressive government support or charity such that the vast majority of the global poor could generally afford sufficient food. If the crisis were only a year or two, loans could be feasible, either to poor individuals or poor countries. The necessary conservation (less waste, less food to animals, and so on) in the developed countries could be achieved by higher prices or rationing. However, even if mass starvation is averted, generally there would be more malnutrition and increasing susceptibility to disease. The poor would be less able to afford other lifesaving measures, and a pandemic would be more likely. Even if food aid is available, it may not be possible to get the food to the people who need it. Therefore, near zero mortality is unlikely. At the same time, even with no catastrophe, 6.5 million people die of hunger-related diseases per year (UNICEF 2006). On the other extreme, there could be food export restrictions or bans, as implemented by India, Vietnam, Egypt, and China in 2008 (Helfand 2013) when the situation was much less serious. This hoarding on a country level could also be coupled with hoarding on an individual level. This could dramatically reduce the food supply available to poor people.\n\n\n>Armed conflict could be in some countries' best interest, which could also aggravate famine (Keller 1992; Waldman 2001; Goodhand 2003). These wars could even evolve into nuclear conflict, which would further impact food supplies.\"", "resc": "This question conditions on there being a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, using the same specification as in [a previous question](LINK) (except that here the year 2030 is used instead of 2024[1]). That is, the question resolves ambiguously if that condition isn't met. As noted in that previous question, this could be caused either by nuclear conflict or by something else.\n\n\nThe question resolves positively if: \n\n\n1. The above condition is met\n\n2. At least three credible sources state or estimate that, within 5 years of the end of the year in which the first 10% shortfall by 2030 occurs, more than 400 million fatalities were caused by that shortfall. \n\n\nFor example, if the shortfall occurs in 2027, this question is about whether that causes >400m fatalities by the end of 2032.\n\n\nIf a source gives a range as its estimate, the midpoint of that range will be used as its estimate. \n\n\n**See also:**\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8395/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >100m fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8398/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause >1b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8381/nuclear-conflict-involving-100-detonations/)\n\n* [Will the first nuclear conflict involving >1000 detonations cause >4b fatalities within 10 years of the final detonation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8382/nuclear-conflict-involving-1000-detonations/)", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?", "desc": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\n> \"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\n\n\nHowever, [researchers for the Middle East Institute write](https://www.mei.edu/publications/middle-east-conflict-zone-between-china-and-russia):\n\n>\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China's ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China's investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \n\n\nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.", "resc": "For the purposes of this question, a China-Russia war is defined as the China and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution.\n\n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n\n\n**See also**\n\n\n* [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/)\n\n* [Will there be a US-China war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8362/us-china-war-by-2035/)\n\n* [Will there be a China-India war by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8363/china-india-war-by-2035/", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?", "desc": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until 5 February 2026. \n\n\nWe ask a pair of questions about the odds of a Russia-US nuclear exchange conditional on New START being renewed/replaced or [conditional it not being renewed/replaced](ADD LINK) in hopes of shedding some light on the impact of the treaty. (But of course differences between forecasts on the two questions could also partly reflect the impact of \"third variables\" that influence both whether the treaty is renewed/replaced and whether a Russia-US nuclear exchange occurs.)", "resc": "This question conditions on the following (i.e., it resolves ambiguously if this condition isn't met): New START is renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, according to credible reports such as the [Arms Control Association]. By replacement by another nuclear arms control agreement we mean a situation when there is an agreement after 2026 that both US and Russian officials describe as a successor to New START. No attempt will be made to determine whether the renewed or replacement treaty actually has very similar terms to New START. \n\n\nThis question resolves positively if that condition is met and there is a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US between this question opening and 2035, defined here as at least one offensive nuclear detonation by the US on or over Russian territory and/or at least one offensive nuclear detonation made by Russia on or over US territory.\n\n\nA state (US or Russia) will be considered responsible for a nuclear detonation if either:\n\n(a) The state openly admits such responsibility (in a statement made by the President, Prime Minister, Minister/Secretary of Defense, the US Ambassador to Russia (or vice versa), a top military executive or a similarly important official)\n\n(b) Credible reports by multinational organizations conclude that the state was responsible\n\n(c) There are credible reports claiming the state was responsible and the state does not deny it.\n\n\nIf the state changes its claims (e.g. first admitting responsibility for the attack and then denying it), priority will be given to independent reports.\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n\n**See also:**\n\n* [Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least 5 February 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393/new-start-renewed-until-february-2027/)\n\n* [Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8608/end-of-new-start-leading-to-nuclear-exchange/)", "prediction": "4%"} +{"title": "Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?", "desc": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could _perhaps_ trigger larger-scale conflicts.\n\n\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group who is not in a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) has possession of a nuclear weapon that was originally developed by a state and is in deployable condition at the time the state acquires it (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This may occur (for example) by sales, theft, or a state inadvertently losing control of a weapon. This will not include cases where a non-state actor independently develops a weapon (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)). \n\n\nA non-state actor obtaining [highly-enriched uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium#Highly_enriched_uranium_(HEU)) or other weapons material is not sufficient to resolve this question positively. Additionally, [dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\n\n\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?", "desc": "_This is one of several questions in this tournament related to nuclear proliferation, force sizes, or yields. See [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/) for a list of such questions and some discussion of these topics._\n\n\nMuch of the concern around nuclear weapons is centered on large-scale nuclear war resulting in [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) and/or the [deaths of a large percentage of the world's population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/). But nuclear proliferation and the increasing ease of developing nuclear weapons may also increase the risk of smaller conflicts and catastrophes, which could be important in themselves and could _perhaps_ trigger larger-scale conflicts.\n\n\nTo date, there is no known incident of a non-state actor having control of a nuclear weapon, but there have been numerous close calls. In 1994, [the US successfully extracted 600kg of weapons-grade uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Sapphire) from an unsecured warehouse in Kazakhstan, and the IEAE reports [frequent incidents](https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/security/itdb-fact-sheet.pdf) involving theft or unauthorized posession of weapons material. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are notable groups who have [interest or intent in acquiring nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_terrorism#Militant_groups)", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, between this question opening and 2030-01-01, an individual or group outside a state's [nuclear chain of command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_command_and_control) develops a nuclear weapon that is in deployable condition (though it need not be used, detonated, or set on alert). This will not include cases where a deployable weapon is sold, stolen, or inadvertently lost by a state (such scenarios are addressed in a [separate question](LINK)).\n\n\n[Dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb) (conventional weapons which use radioactive material to spread fallout) do not qualify for this question; the weapon must be a [nuclear weapon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) in the sense of having nuclear fission or fusion as its primary energy source.\n\n\nThis question will resolve on the basis of official statements by governments, government intelligence authorities, or non-governmental nuclear intelligence organizations. In the case of significant disagreement or ambiguity on the points above, resolution may be delayed until 2035-01-01 for clarification, or be resolved ambiguous at the discretion of Metaculus admins", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will bimagrumab be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?", "desc": "In January of this year (2021), Novartis published a [phase 2 trial](http://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.33457) of its interesting drug [bimagrumab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bimagrumab) in people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight. Bimagrumab inhibits an inhibitor of muscle growth, causing muscles to grow. Over 48 weeks, people treated with bimagrumab lost one-fifth of their fat mass and increased their lean mass by 4%, along with notable improvements in blood glucose control. \n\n[Versanis Bio](https://www.versanisbio.com/) [secured funding](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210831005293/en/Versanis-Bio-Announces-70-Million-Series-A-Financing-to-Advance-Bimagrumab-for-the-Treatment-of-Obesity) in 2021 to develop bimagrumab for the treatment of obesity.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency approve bimagrumab for the treatment of weight loss by 2029-01-01. This may include a successful development from Versanis Bio, or any other pharmaceutical company", "prediction": "33%"} +{"title": "If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?", "desc": "Decisions about how much to prioritize nuclear risk reduction and how best to reduce nuclear risk should be guided in part by our best guesses about:\n\n* how many deaths would occur given a large-scale nuclear exchange \n\n* what proportion of those deaths would occur fairly soon after the detonations (e.g., from the initial blast and fires) rather than later on (e.g., from fallout or nuclear winter effects)\n\nFor example, this is relevant to the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons and the value of investing in research and development on \"[resilient food](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/resilient-food)\". \n\nSee [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1), and the sources linked to from there, for previous discussion of these sorts of questions and why they matter.\n\n**Potentially useful resources**\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n* [[rough notes] How much would agricultural production decline, given various possible effects of nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1c9-jGeb3HHUUHHqs53g--in11yMkbI_s2dhTS9KR--c/edit)\n\n* [Our World in Data's charts of cereal yields](https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) from 1961 to 2018 for various countries and the world as a whole", "resc": "This question is conditional on there being 100 or more offensive nuclear detonations on or over territory owned by the US in a single conflict before January 1, 2045. That is, if that condition isn't met, this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n1. The above condition is met\n\n2. Over the 5-calendar-year period after the first detonation in the first conflict that meets that condition, Average yearly total US cereal crop production is at least 20% lower than in the year before the first detonation.\n\nThis could involve smaller reductions in some years and for some cereal crops, as long as the average yearly total US cereal crop production across all 5 years is at least 20% lower than in the year before the first detonation.\n\nDetonations will be considered to be part of the same conflict if each detonation occurs within 30 days or less of a previous detonation (even if the detonations involve different pairings of states, involve unrelated motivations, etc.).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).", "prediction": "85%"} +{"title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", "desc": "For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if there's at least one offensive nuclear detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 1000 megatonnes. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n\n\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins. \n\n\n**Related questions**\n\n* [Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8635/total-yield-of-nukes-50mt-by-2050/)\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n\n* [What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?", "desc": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8632/total-yield-of-nukes-1000mt-by-2050/)\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7811/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050-if-any/)\n\n* [What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8372/the-largest-yield-nuclear-weapon-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\n_For context and motivation for this and other questions in this tournament on nuclear proliferation, arsenal sizes, or yields, see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8126/nuclear-proliferation-force-sizes--yields/)._\n\nThe total yield used depends on both the number of weapons used and the yield of each of those weapons. This tournament has or will soon have other questions on the number of nuclear weapons that'll be used (if any are), the total yield of arsenals, and the largest yield weapon that will be possessed or used.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there's at least one offensive detonation by 2050 and total yield (across all conflicts) is above 50 megatonnes. This question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n\nResolution will be based on estimates from reliable news sources or from government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/)\n\n* [If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7812/taiwan-to-receive-support-in-china-conflict/)\n\n----\n\nOther questions ask [Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/) and [Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and a NATO country before 2024, without US involvement?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/clash-between-russia-and-nato-ex-us-by-2024/).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the following two criteria are met:\n\n1. Between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2035, there is a conflict between Russia and one or more NATO countries other than the US in which those countries collectively suffer [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. \n\n2. It is *not* the case that there is a US-Russia war by January 1, 2035 (regardless of whether that's connected to, before, or after the war mentioned in the first criterion). In other words, the question \"Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?\" must resolve negatively for this question to resolve positively.\n\nThis question can resolve positively even if the US is in some way involved in the war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, as long as the US's involvement is insufficient to resolve \"Will there be a US-Russia war before 2035?\" positively. For example, this question can resolve positively if there's a year before 2035 in which Russia and Germany each suffer 600 battle-related deaths as part of a conflict with each other and, as part of the same conflict, the US suffers \"only\" 100 battle-related deaths and inflicts \"only\" the same amount. \n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\nIf NATO ceases to exist by 2035, from that point onwards we consider NATO countries to be all countries that were [part of NATO as of 2021](https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states/).\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO", "prediction": "7%"} +{"title": "At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?", "desc": "Which countries would be targeted in a nuclear conflict is relevant both for understanding the total risk posed by nuclear weapons and for understanding how best to reduce that risk.\n\nSee also [Collection of questions on nuclear targeting](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8604/collection-of-questions-on-nuclear-targeting/).", "resc": "Currently, [there are 9 nuclear-armed states](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/): Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\n\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2030. This question resolves negatively if that doesn't occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2030. This question resolves ambiguously if no offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere before 2030.\n\nIf a state that isn't currently nuclear-armed becomes nuclear-armed before 2030, a fatality in that state while it is nuclear-armed can count towards positive resolution of this question.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions), but doesn't include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) and [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion).\n\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\n\nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to Metaculus admins.\n\nSee also similar questions regarding the chance of a fatality in India, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, and the US.\n\n* [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8367/fatality-in-india-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n\n* [Israel](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8637/fatality-in-israel-from-a-nuclear-detonation/)\n\n* [Pakistan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8368/fatality-in-pakistan-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n\n* [North Korea](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8369/fatality-in-n-korea-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n\n* [Russia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8365/fatality-in-russia-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n\n* [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8364/fatality-in-china-nuclear-attack-by-2030/)\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/)", "prediction": "73%"} +{"title": "If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?", "desc": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n\n* [If a nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be launched accidentally or without authorization?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8645/first-detonation-accidentalunauthorized/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n----\n\n[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\n\n>\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n\n> \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\n\n> \"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\n\n\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)). Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was inadvertent, as defined above. If there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\n\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\n\n\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.", "prediction": "21%"} +{"title": "If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?", "desc": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations:\n\n\n>\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n\n\n> \"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\"\n\n\n> \"In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\"\n\n\nThe only non-test nuclear detonations as of 2021 were deliberate detonations on Japan in 1945. However there have been [several opportunities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls) where inadvertent and deliberate launches had nearly occurred. Inadvertent launches could also occur if weapons facilities fall out of maintenance, if subordinates disobey the chain of command, or if non-state actors infiltrate a nuclear weapons facility (similar to the [2012 Plowshares protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plowshares_movement#Recent_actions)). Understanding which type of detonation are most likely to precipitate a conflict may help us understand which kinds of risks are most urgent, as well as which kinds of conflicts might develop.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if there is at least 1 non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon between this question opening and 2050-01-01, and the first detonation in this period was accidental or unauthorised, as defined above. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon that was owned by a state actor (though not if officials high in the state's chain of command authorized the non-state actor to do this; that would be considered a deliberate detonation).\n\n\nIf there is no non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon during this period, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\n\nA detonation will be considered \"a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon\" if the detonation is not a test detonation or peaceful nuclear explosion (see the fine print), a country owned the weapon, and credible sources generally agree on which country owned the nuclear weapon. This can include detonations by non-state actors who have acquired a state's nuclear weapon.\n\n\nResolution will come from official statements by the heads of government or military, declassified or leaked documents, or from analysis of non-government nuclear/military experts. In the case there is significant ambiguity or disagreement about the precipitating events of the first nuclear detonation, resolution may be delayed until 2105-01-01, or resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus admins.\n\n\n**Related questions**\n\n\n* [If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be inadvertent?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8644/first-detonation-by-2050-inadvertent/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)", "prediction": "22%"} +{"title": "If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2050, will international trade of goods decline by at least 10% for at least 1 year in the following 5 years?", "desc": "How much nuclear war would affect international trade is important for three reasons:\n\n\n1. Levels of international trade could serve as one imperfect proxy of the overall harm and disruption that would be caused by nuclear war.\n\n\n2. A reduction international trade would likely in itself led to reduced human health and wellbeing even under normal conditions.\n\n\n3. [Nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) scenarios may involve much less famine if international trade continues at high levels. This is because in those scenarios some areas may have the climatic conditions necessary to produce surplus food, but (a) they may only be able to do this if they get seeds, fertilizer, equipment, know-how, etc. from elsewhere, (b) this only prevents famine elsewhere if trade continues, and (c) if trade doesn't continue then there may instead be conflict over control of the necessary land or inputs.", "resc": "This question conditions on there being more than 100 offensive nuclear detonations before 2050 (i.e., in the period between the opening of this question and January 1, 2050). That is, if that condition isn't met, this question resolves ambiguously.\n\n\nThis question resolves positively if:\n\n\n1. The above condition is met, and \n\n\n2. Total global international trade of goods in any calendar year after the first detonation and no later that 5 years after the last detonation (or 2049, whichever comes earlier) is at least 10% lower than in the year before the first detonation.\n\n\nBy total international trade of goods, we mean all global exchange of goods across international borders. The data about global international trade of goods will be taken from the [International Trade Center](https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelProduct.aspx?nvpm=1%7c%7c%7c%7c%7cTOTAL%7c%7c%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c1%7c1), where we select \"TOTAL - All products\" (in category Product), \"World\", and \"Exports\". If this source is not available, data from the World Trade Organization or other comparably trustworthy source will be used.\n\n\nFor the purposes of this question, offensive nuclear detonations include deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations (see the fine print for definitions) of state or nonstate nuclear weapons.\n\n\n**See also**\n\n\n* [List of Metaculus questions related to nuclear winter](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11FQjuot-nW6uuWAGreWzstTe2jkkXn_dkpUyssjEbV8/edit)\n\n\n* [[Mistakes to avoid]: Ignoring the possibility of major climate and famine effects following nuclear conflict—or overstating the likelihood/severity of those effects](https://docs.google.com/document/d/101XAopwJlDtWx8URHDCmkEPZYwjSw3sem-J13EkiS64/edit#heading=h.cukkjajmwol1)\n\n\n* [[rough notes] How many people would die due to famine, given various possible agricultural production declines following nuclear conflict?](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IT9asE05NyZ5CZD6yPQZezB5yk1SHMm9modbPyIWvfQ/edit)", "prediction": "93%"} +{"title": "By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?", "desc": "The first discovered interstellar object (1I\\`Oumuamua) displayed a curious combination of properties that have led some to speculate that it may be an artificial object from an intelligent [extraterrestrial](https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/Extraterrestrial/9780358274551) civilization. While the majority of the scientific community believes that `Oumuamua originated through [natural](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0816-x) astrophysical processes, the formation mechanism of such objects remains unknown. This question is part of a fortified essay on interstellar objects.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if at least two of the following agencies (or their successors) releases a statement that confirms an extraterrestrial, intelligent origin of an interstellar object in our Solar System.\n\n- United States Department of Defense (Space Force, Air Force, etc.)\n- NASA\n- European Space Agency (ESA)\n- Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)\n- Roscosmos\n- Chinese National Space Administration\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an \"interstellar object\" will be defined as an object with the \"I\" [designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) by the [Minor Planet Center ](https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/), or as an object with an origin outside the solar system according to major government space agencies", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?", "desc": "According to most recent estimations by Arms Control Association, China currently has a nuclear arsenal of about 350 warheads [though the US Department of Defense estimated them in 2020 to be somewhere in the \"low-200s\"]( https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF) (page 92). Compared to the world's total count of over 13,000, this is a vanishingly small number, as US and Russia [continue to hold more than 90% of the total nuclear warheads](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat). \n\nThe 2021 'Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China' report by the US Department of Defense estimates that China might have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and \" likely intends to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030\" (page 90). \n\nThis Metaculus question forecasts a 68% chance [China will have over 420 nuclear warheads by 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8139/china-have-420-warheads-by-2024/).\n\nIf these projections come true, this has the potential of shifting the balance of power. [As the Financial Times reports,](https://www.ft.com/content/d7c50283-18c8-4f2e-8731-970d9a547688?shareType=nongift) \"Military leaders in Washington face two critical questions. After decades of gradual increases in its nuclear forces, is China pivoting to a less defensive approach that has the potential to significantly alter the balance of power in East Asia? And could this enable China to win a conflict with the US over Taiwan by neutralising the threat from American nuclear weapons?\"\n\nUnderstanding China's longer-term nuclear strategy is crucial for geopolitical strategy of the US/EU in Asia.", "resc": "This resolves positively if China is reported to have achieved 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 according to the FAS (https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/).\n\nThis resolves negatively if no such reports happen by 2030. \n\nThis resolves ambiguously if the political entity of 'China' dissolves or otherwise changes significantly", "prediction": "55%"} +{"title": "Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2031?", "desc": "Donor-advised funds (DAFs) are institutions with which an individual can open an account, contribute financial assets, and invest tax-free before disbursing to an eligible nonprofit. In the United States, DAF accounts are not subject to disbursement requirements; funds in DAF accounts can be reinvested indefinitely before they are disbursed, without the DAF or DAF account facing any penalties or losses of tax privileges. \n\nOn June 9, 2021, Senators Angus King (I-ME) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) introduced the Accelerating Charitable Efforts Act, or \"ACE Act\". Among other provisions, the law would require newly created DAF accounts to spend the entirety of their funds within either 15 or 50 years in order for the account and its institutional sponsor to avoid tax penalties. A summary of the bill's provisions, as they currently stand, can be found [here](https://www.cof.org/content/summary-accelerating-charitable-efforts-act-ace-act?_hsmi=133206729&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_ftOeI18wqwDvW2WiYv0lSFHbcjF7VRtI76I8k1WKGQubYgpWj9-CBGLnVG6Un2uEAGmwB_B9Faoyh-CrC2CesXpC9Wi25K5mzbSJJcG06pnUZAJc) and the full text is [here](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/1981/text?r=2&s=1).\n\nThis question was suggested by Phil Trammel, and may affect decision-making on the [Patient Philanthropy Fund](https://founderspledge.com/funds/patient-philanthropy-fund) and adjacent projects. This is a slightly longer term companion question to [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8663/us-to-make-patient-philanthropy-harder-soon/). In addition to forecasts, comments are also very welcome.", "resc": "This question will resolve if such a bill is signed into law before the end of December 31, 2030 (EST), even if it is scheduled not to come into effect until some later date. Further:\n\n- Disbursement requirements to either new or existing donor-advised fund accounts would resolve this question in the positive.\n- Tying donor-advised funds' tax privileges to disbursement scheduling criteria would resolve this question in the positive", "prediction": "38%"} +{"title": "Will the US President's ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?", "desc": "Since World War II, Congress has opted to pass a series of resolutions to authorize the president to use force rather than declare war. These resolutions are an extension of the War Powers Resolution (WPR), a federal law passed in 1973 that was meant to limit presidential war powers. The WPR originally [stipulated the following](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Resolution):\n \nThe War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force (AUMF) or a declaration of war by the United States.\n \nSince its passing, the WPR has largely failed to reign in the executive branch's ability to unilaterally take military action. A particular flaw in the resolution is its use of the word \"hostilities\" to describe conflict. The [introductory text to the resolution](https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/warpower.asp) is as follows:\n \n>It is the purpose of this joint resolution to fulfill the intent of the framers of the Constitution of the United States and insure that the collective judgment of both the Congress and the President will apply to the introduction of United States Armed Forces into hostilities, or into situations where imminent involvement in hostilities is clearly indicated by the circumstances, and to the continued use of such forces in hostilities or in such situations.\n \nUnfortunately, \"hostilities\" fails to precisely describe warfare. This terminology has been exploited by various presidencies, culminating in [testimony by the Obama administration](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/167452.pdf) explicitly stating its futility to constrain the executive branch's authority. Consequently, this loophole handicaps the WPR's ability to function as originally intended. Policymakers have [considered replacing the current term](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3436924) with \"armed conflict\", which would align with the Geneva Convention's terminology and the international legal obligations requiring congressional oversight that would come with such a conflict.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if by 2030-01-01 the current War Powers Resolution is replaced, amended or struck down, via legal challenge, legislation, or executive authority, to further restrict the President's ability to deploy military force", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?", "desc": "Metaculus users are acutely aware of the existential risks associated with nuclear security. The predictions community has written hundreds of questions concerning nuclear risk, and Metaculus is currently hosting a [Nuclear Risk tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/). Most of these questions focus on stockpiles, detonation and other outcomes. To answer these questions with fidelity, predictors must make assumptions concerning the processes and conditions in which a nuclear weapon would be launched.\n \nAn excerpt from a [Congressional Research Service report](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IF10521.pdf) outlines the command and control of nuclear forces in the United States:\n \n>The U.S. President has sole authority to authorize the use of U.S. nuclear weapons. This authority is inherent in his constitutional role as Commander in Chief. The President can seek counsel from his military advisors; those advisors are then required to transmit and implement the orders authorizing nuclear use. But, as General John Hyten, then the Commander of U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), noted, his job is to give advice, while the authority to order a launch lies with the President.", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"**No**\" if, at any point between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030, any one or set of American laws, amendments, or other legal mechanisms adds additional required authorizing parties to the final decision to use nuclear force and/or if the Acting President is no longer an authority in the process. \n\nThe addition of new parties able to authorize nuclear weapon use (even without the President's awareness or approval) will not be relevant to the resolution of this question. Additionally, the question resolution will not be affected by standing orders to use nuclear weapons (such as \"retaliate against X target if you detect a nuclear weapon launch\"), so long as they have been authorized in advance by the Acting President or someone with legal authority to authorize nuclear weapon use. An accidental launch of US nuclear weapons, or one launched outside of the US nuclear chain of command will also not resolve the question. This question solely concerns whether any new party will be able to restrict the Acting US President's authority to use nuclear weapons, or whether the President will have no such authority", "prediction": "91.9%"} +{"title": "Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?", "desc": "[Space debris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris) pose a significant threat to spacecraft in Earth orbit. Varying in size from tiny collision fragments to large non-operational satellites, and travelling at high velocities, a collision even with a small piece of debris can knock a satellite out of commission. The number of debris keeps growing as space gets more crowded and collisions between them cause pieces of debris to further fragment. If this trend continues unabated and a critical debris density is reached, a run-away effect may happen where collisions between objects cause a cascade, a sort of space debris chain reaction. This scenario is called the [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) and can make low Earth orbit exceedingly difficult to use.\n\nDespite mitigation measures being put in place, space debris will remain a significant risk to spacecraft at least for the near future. In addition to astronauts on the ISS and other planned space stations, a rise in private human spaceflight and space tourism is expected, potentially putting more humans in space than ever. A scenario is possible, as depicted e.g. in the film [Gravity](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1454468/), where humans are put in danger by space debris. In November 2021, a Russian anti-satellite missile test created 1,500 pieces of debris, sending the [7 astronauts aboard the ISS](https://apnews.com/article/space-exploration-science-business-697f5aa719331ab6e74102ebb06b52d8) to their capsules for safety.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2035, a fatality in space is attributed to space debris, according to major national space agencies or credible media reports", "prediction": "11%"} +{"title": "Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?", "desc": "[Small modular reactors](https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs) (SMRs) are a type of nuclear power reactor which are smaller than conventional nuclear power plants (in size and in power output), and modular (meaning they can be manufactured off-site and shipped as a unit to be set-up faster and at lower cost). Russia has built a [floating SMR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akademik_Lomonosov) in a harbor in the arctic circle, and [China has begun developing](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Installation-of-containment-starts-at-Chinese-SMR) a land-based reactor with plans to begin operation by 2027. A division at [Rolls-Royce](https://www.rolls-royce-smr.com/press/funding-secured-to-enable-small-modular-reactor-delivery-to-meet-net-zero) has set a target to bring SMRs online in the UK \"in the early 2030s\".", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, by 2030-01-01, small modular reactor nuclear power supplies at least 1% of any nation's annual elecricity consumption. Resolution may come from credible media reports, government agencies, or energy industry researchers such as the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/)", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?", "desc": "Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.\n\nVDH tracks the number of [new COVID-19 cases](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) by date of symptom onset, which it [currently](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/dashboardschedule/) updates on weekdays.\n\nVDH also [tracks](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) CLI visits as a broader measure of COVID-19-induced burden and as an alternative to directly tracking COVID-19 cases/hospitalizations:\n> “monitors ED visits to measure the number of patients seeking care for a COVID-like illness (CLI). Visits for CLI include those noting symptoms of fever + respiratory complaint, loss of taste or smell, those with a coronavirus or severe respiratory diagnosis, or visits that mention COVID-19 as the reason for visit. CLI visits do not include COVID-19 vaccination visits or visits with an influenza diagnosis. These data may not represent confirmed cases of COVID-19, but they can assist with understanding the burden on healthcare systems and the community.”\n\nThis question asks whether the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness visits during a summer (June, July, August) will exceed the previous winter's peak (December, January, February). This is important for seasonal planning and staffing purposes.", "resc": "This will resolve positively if at any point during the summer months of June, July, or August the [7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases(“Cases by Date of Symptom Onset”)](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-in-virginia/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/) **or** COVID-like illness [(“Weekly CLI visits (counts)”](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/see-the-numbers/covid-19-data-insights/covid-like-illness-visits/) exceeds the peak of the winter (December, January, February) immediately preceding that summer.\n\nThis applies for all the winter and summer months through 1 November 2026", "prediction": "33%"} +{"title": "Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?", "desc": "Note: this is a long term question which will not count toward the tournament leaderboard. See the tournament page for details.\n\nIn the U.S., the number and percentage of medical visits where [influenza-like illness (ILI)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) is reported is the main way flu activity is measured. [According](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm) to the U.S. CDC, “ILI is defined as fever (temperature of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) and a cough and/or a sore throat without a known cause other than influenza.” The percentage of medical visits that are for ILI is an important way to measure the burden of influenza on the healthcare system.\n\nThe 2020-2021 flu season in the United States is the [mildest](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) since at least 2009-2010, which is [thought](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/05/10/flu-cases-historically-low-during-covid-what-expect-fall/7088318002/) to be the result of widespread physical distancing targeted at COVID-19. This has also been the case in Virginia: the percent ILI for 2020-2021 is also the lowest since at least 2009-2010 — see the “ILI” tab [here](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/). The peak percent ILI in Virginia during 2020-2021 was 1.8% in epidemiological week one. The highest peak percent ILI in Virginia since 2009-2010 was 14.1% during epidemiological week forty-two of the 2009-2010 flu season.", "resc": "This will resolve positively if the weekly peak percent ILI exceeds 14.0% at any point before 2032 according to the [VDH Influenza Surveillance unit](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/)", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "By 2032, will the California Constitution be amended to restrict the state's authority to set zoning policy?", "desc": "Recent [YIMBY](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YIMBY) planning reforms in California have led to increased outrage by NIMBYs. A [recent effort](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Local_Land_Use_and_Zoning_to_Supersede_Conflicting_State_Law_Initiative_(2022)) seeks to put a [constitutional limit on state involvement in local housing decisions](https://easyreadernews.com/redondo-beach-mayor-bill-brand-drafts-initiative-to-block-sb-single-family-zoning-bill/). In California, ballot initiatives which receive enough signatures can go directly to the voters. This initiative would need 1.5 million signatures by May 2022 to go on the November 2022 ballot.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, by January 1, 2032, any amendment to the California Constitution has been passed which limit's California's state authority to set zoning policy. This question may resolve upon the success of [initiative #21-0016](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Local_Land_Use_and_Zoning_to_Supersede_Conflicting_State_Law_Initiative_(2022)) or any future ballot initiative or legislation which limits California's state authority to set zoning policy. This legislation must take effect before January 1, 2032 to resolve this question positively", "prediction": "46%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?", "desc": "", "resc": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \n\nOn this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe. As of November 25, [The Economist's median estimate](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) for the COVID-19 global death toll is 17.3M, which amount to 0.22% of the global population:\n\n> Although the official number of deaths caused by covid-19 is now 5.2m, our single best estimate is that the actual toll is 17.3m people. We find that there is a 95% chance that the true value lies between 10.8m and 20.2m additional deaths.\n\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on our definition. It is estimated that the bubonic plague pandemic, which ocurred in Afro-Eurasia from 1346 to 1353, killed [between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history). Using [estimates of the global population at the time](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html), these numbers suggest that the Black Death killed between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world's population at the time.\n\n***If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to naturally occuring pandemics?***\n\nThe question resolves positively if a global catastrophe occurs resulting from naturally occurring pandemic(s) that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. Positive resolution requires there to be a high degree of confidence that the relevant pathogens have natural origins, as opossed to being synthesized, edited or enhanced using Gain of Function techniques. Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.\n\n-------\n\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n", "prediction": "9%"} +{"title": "Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?", "desc": "The Communications Decency Act of 1996, and specifically [Section 230](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_230), were the result of a rare display of bi-partisanship during the Bill Clinton presidency (1993-2001). The legislation was driven by the efforts of Chris Cox, Republican congressman and former White House staffer for Ronald Reagan, who joined hands with Oregon Democrat Ron Wyden in an effort to allow then-nascent Internet service providers to moderate online discussions and suppress pornography and other content. \n\nThe next year, the Supreme Court struck down most of the anti-porn provisions on freedom-of-speech grounds, and Section 230 was left as the main consequence of the new legislation: Internet providers, whether moderating content or not, were from then on fairly safe from lawsuits regarding any of the content they publish and any decisions on which users are allowed to publish.\n\nBacklash against Section 230 grew among Republicans and the right in the 2010s, as discussion groups and influential users with hundreds of thousands of followers, such as Yiannopoulos, were banned from platforms with no recourse. Democrats and the left also expressed significant concerns from the start of Donald Trump's presidency in 2017, following accusations that Facebook – in particular – was used to spread disinformation that benefited Trump's campaign. \n\nTrump launched [an effort to terminate Section 230](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-preventing-online-censorship/) in May 2020. Then-presidential candidate Joe Biden was also expressing support for striking down the controversial legislation, although he later took down [Trump's executive order on the matter](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/biden-revokes-trump-executive-order-that-targeted-section-230/ar-BB1gLnW9).\n\nPolitical discussion is heating up on the issue and may heat up even further if the GOP regains control of Congress next year; Big Tech is resolutely opposed to the move – in March, Google CEO [Sundar Pichai warned Congress](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-ceo-warns-of-unintended-consequences-if-congress-kills-section-230-153748127.html) of unintended consequences if Section 230 were revoked.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, between January 1, 2022 to January 20, 2025, Section 230 of The Communications Decency Act of 1996 is revoked or modified in any way from its [current text](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/United_States_Code/Title_47/Chapter_5/Subchapter_II/Part_I/Section_230)", "prediction": "28%"} +{"title": "Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?", "desc": "Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the continued involvement in the Ukraine conflict in the Donbass region, Russia and NATO have put distinct focus on the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) as [a further potential point of conflict](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/preventing-escalation-in-baltics-introduction-pub-75879). One result of the 2016 NATO Warsaw Summit was the decision to [“establish NATO's forward presence in Estonia, Latvia, [and] Lithuania”](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm\n) in the face of up to 50,000 Russian troops being able to be deployed [within a few days](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.).\n\nThe Russian annexation of Crimea and support of separatist forces in Donbass has, at least in part, been attributed and explained by the high number of ethnic Russians living in these areas. According to estimations there are roughly [1 million ethnic Russians spread out over all three Baltic countries](http://www.hscentre.org/uncategorized/hard-and-soft-power-an-analysis-of-russian-influence-in-the-baltic-states/) , directly along the WMD (Russia's Western Military District). Importantly, the fraction of ethnic Russians is significantly higher in the Eastern-most municipalities in all three countries and ranges from 5.8% (Lithuania) to 26.9% (Latvia) of the total population to over 40% (Lithuania) or 60% (Latvia/Estonia) in some [Eastern municipalities](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6cb4f0a7dcd64278b52840a7dc364127). This is a pattern akin to that of Donbass (and in some aspects to Crimea) that provides some prima facie reason to expect Russian involvement of some kind or another. \n\nA [2018 report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace](https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/three-escalation-scenarios-pub-75882) has outlined three escalation scenarios: deliberate escalation (in which Russia attempts a land grab in the Baltics), inadvertent escalation (in which Russia capitalises on a domestic crisis and is then driven by domestic pressure to threaten to intervene), and accidental escalation (in which an intervention is caused by an unrelated accident). Even though each individual scenario is quite unlikely, the implications are significant, especially with regard to the potential of a nuclear escalation, and because [“safeguarding the security of the Baltic states is particularly important for NATO's credibility and for Europe's security”](https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/russias-strategic-interests-and-actions-baltic-region#1.) more generally.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if Russia annexes any territory belonging (as of December 2021) to the countries of Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia before January 1, 2035, according to credible media reports. This will resolve positively if this annexation occurs for any length of time. This question will resolve negatively if Russia does not annex any such territory. For the purposes of this question, \"annexation\" means the posession or control of a territory, by means of force or without the consent of the Baltic nation's government", "prediction": "2.5%"} +{"title": "Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Space Debris Kill an Astronaut by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8750/will-space-debris-kill-an-astronaut-by-2025/)\n\n----\n\n[As far as we know](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.economist.com/science-and-technology/2019/08/10/no-one-has-yet-been-killed-by-re-entering-space-junk), re-entering space debris has yet to kill a human on earth.\n\n***Will space debris kill a human on earth by 2025?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if by January 1, 2025, re-entering space debris has killed at least one human on Earth according to credible media reports. Indirect deaths on earth (e.g. because a downed satellite damages critical healthcare communications) will not count for the purposes of this question. For the purposes of this question, space debris will be defined as human-made material that had an altitude of 100 kilometers or greater for at least 90 minutes.", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games?", "desc": "In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - originally airing November 17, 1999, it is stated that the New York Yankees [win the World Series](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series) that occurs in 2032 in 6 games.\n\nThe Yankees most recent World Series Championship was in [2009](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_World_Series), where they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games.\n\nAre we on a road to a Star Trek Future?", "resc": "The question resolves positively if the MLB annual championship that occurs in the year 2032 is won by a team named \"New York Yankees\" in exactly 6 games (e.g. the Yankees win 4 games, and their opponent wins 2).\n\n- If a team that was formerly named \"New York Yankees\" wins in 6 games, this question resolves negatively\n\n- If a team with a name that still refers New York city or state wins in 6 games (e.g. Brooklyn Yankees, New York State Yankees), this question resolves positively.\n\n- If the MLB changes its rules such that the World Series is played for fewer than 6 games, or more than 13 games (so it would be impossible to win in 6 games), this question resolves negatively.\n\n- If the MLB folds into smaller leagues prior to the 2032 World Series, this question resolves negatively.\n\n- If the MLB folds into a larger league prior to the 2032 World Series (such as a [Planetary Baseball League](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Planetary_Baseball_League)), and a team named \"New York Yankees\" still exists, if that team wins the World Series of the larger league in 6 games, this question resolves positively", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?", "desc": "In the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.\n\nThe proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3648) would have [removed the 7% per-country cap](https://immigrationforum.org/article/bill-summary-the-eagle-act/) for employment-based visas. The bill would also raise per-country caps for family-based green card petitions from 7% to 15%. This question is focused on the employment-based visa per-country limit.", "resc": "Resolves positively if there are credible news stories or government publications reporting that in U.S. immigration law, the per-country caps on employment-based visas have been phased out before 2025.\n\nPositive resolution does not require changing the overall 140k limit on all countries in sum, only the removal of the per-country cap on employment-based visas. \n\nIt also does not require other types of visas to have their country-caps changed or removed", "prediction": "8%"} +{"title": "Will Google implement a feature to explain targeted Google Ads before 2026?", "desc": "Explainable AI (xAI) methods have gained popularity as a means of increasing user trust in AI systems. There are numerous xAI methods; a non-exhaustive survey is provided by [Christopher Molnar](https://christophm.github.io/interpretable-ml-book/). Facebook has implemented (as of December 2021) a form of explanation for targeted ads (by clicking “Why am I seeing this ad?”). Google Search released beta feature in July 2021 which [explains features of search results](https://blog.google/products/search/learn-more-and-get-more-from-search/) which make them relevant to the user's search query.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if Google implements an explanation feature for ads in their Google Ads platform before January 1, 2026. Google must have implemented this feature across the platform for all users, not only in certain formats (such as only in Google Search) or as an A/B test. Google announcements or credible media reports may suffice as a resolution source.\n\n\"Explanations\" will be considered any explanation for advertisement selection which indicates decisive charactaristics of the advertiser or of the user. It is not necessary for this explation to be comprehensive (Google may withhold some key information in decision-making), nor must the explanation be \"true\" (regarding how the algorithm actually makes decisions), as either are in principle not verifiable", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will the Federal Reserve set a target policy rate that is negative by 2050?", "desc": "Since the early 1980s, most central banks have communicated their operation of monetary policy by setting a policy nominal interest rate. For example, the Fed in the US communicates the stance of monetary policy through its target for the federal funds rate (FFR); the Bank of England communicates the stance of monetary policy through its direct control of the official bank rate. (This in contrast to e.g. Milton Friedman's famous [proposal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman%27s_k-percent_rule) for a rule for the growth rate of the monetary base.) \n\nSince all interest rates in an economy are linked by arbitrage pressure, the Fed by controlling the FFR can affect more general interest rates facing consumers and businesses – such as interest rates on bank deposits. The consensus understanding of monetary policy is that by controlling the current and expected future path of these interest rates, central banks can influence economic activity: GDP, inflation, unemployment, and other metrics.\n\nHowever, it has long been believed that central banks cannot push their policy rates much below zero. This is because of a no-arbitrage relation with physical cash. By holding physical cash, you can guarantee yourself a 0% nominal return: if you have 100 dollars in cash in your wallet today, you can ensure that you'll have 100 nominal dollars in your wallet next year, therefore guaranteeing a 0% nominal return. Thus, if the central bank tried to set its policy rate to cause the nominal bank deposit rate to be (say) -20%, then most everyone would pull their money out of the banking system and hold cash instead, to obtain the higher interest rate. ([This is essentially a form of Gresham's Law](http://jpkoning.blogspot.com/2016/11/a-modern-example-of-greshams-law.html): central banks peg physical cash and bank reserves at a 1:1 rate; but the rate of return on the two need not be the same.)\n\nThis zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates however is not a hard limit: because of the costs and inconvenience of storing cash and preventing theft, individuals and firms are willing to accept a somewhat negative nominal interest rate. Indeed, in Europe, the policy rate has been slightly negative since 2014, and this has spilled over to interest rates facing households, such as [mortgage rates in Denmark](https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/aug/13/danish-bank-launches-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage).\n\nIn the United States, unlike the ECB in the Eurozone, the Fed has been unwilling to target a policy rate even modestly below zero. [Various](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/03/18/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-1-negative-interest-rates/) [Fed](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/03/18/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-1-negative-interest-rates/) [officials](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-evans-inflatio/feds-evans-sees-no-inflation-risk-and-no-use-for-negative-rates-idUSKBN22N2H5) have argued (among other things) that they lack the [legal authority](https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-REB-35041) to do so; or that benefits would not be large enough to outweigh some perceived risks.\n\nA history of the Federal Funds rate can be found at [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds)", "resc": "The question will resolve positively if, anytime between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2050, the target policy rate set by the Federal Reserve is negative. This information is taken from (e.g.) the latest press release on [the Federal Reserve's website](http://www.federalreserve.gov/).", "prediction": "52%"} +{"title": "Will <40% of US tax filings be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027?", "desc": "The US tax preparation industry is a big business, with providers of tax software making large profits, for example Intuit making [$1.6 billion](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) from their TurboTax products in 2019. Much of this is [alleged](https://www.propublica.org/article/turbotax-and-others-charged-at-least-14-million-americans-for-tax-prep-that-should-have-been-free-audit-finds) to have come from customers who were eligible for free tax filing. Intuit has been [accused](https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-turbotax-20-year-fight-to-stop-americans-from-filing-their-taxes-for-free) of conducting a long running lobbying campaign to prevent US taxpayers from easily filing for free.\n\nThis question asks if the fraction of taxpayers using paid tax preparation services will decline significantly by the 2027 tax year.", "resc": "The IRS tracks how many filers used paid tax prep services. This was 52.9% of filers in the [2018 tax year](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-tax-stats-at-a-glance). This question asks if this number will have declined below 40% when the numbers for the 2027 tax year are available.\n\nIf the IRS no longer publishes these numbers, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due \"other risks\"?", "desc": "", "resc": "[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \n\nThe Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):\n\n- [Nuclear war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/)\n- [Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/)\n- [Synthetic biology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/)\n- [Nanotechnology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/)\n- [Climate change and geoengineering](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/)\n- [Natural pandemics](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/)\n\nThis notably omits risks that have been discussed in the relevant literature, such as non-anthropogenic risks (such as supervolcanoes, solar flares, asteriod impacts) as well as various anthropogenic ones (such as chemical warfare, conventional warfare, civilizational collapse, amongst others).\n\n***If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to \"other risk\", i.e. other than those listed above?***\n\nThe question resolves: \n\n- positively if a global catastrophe occurs that claim at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100 **and** none of the listed questions resolve positively\n\n- ambiguously if a global catastrophe occurs **and** any of the listed questions resolve ambiguously\n\n- ambiguously if no global catastrophe occurs\n\n- negatively if a global catastrophe occurs and are attributatable to any of the listed causes, such that at least one of them resolves positively\n\n\n-------\n\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n", "prediction": "22%"} +{"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some \"other risk\" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "desc": "The Ragnarök Question Series series features questions about the following risks, of which a majority are mostly anthropogenic (i.e. created by humans):\n\n- [Natural pandemics](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8745/)\n- [Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/)\n- [Synthetic biology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/)\n- [Nanotechnology](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/)\n- [Climate change and geoengineering](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/)\n- [Nuclear war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/)\n\nThis notably omits risks that have been discussed in the relevant literature, such as non-anthropogenic risks (such as supervolcanoes, solar flares, asteriod impacts) as well as various anthropogenic ones (such as chemical warfare, conventional warfare, civilizational collapse, amongst others).\n\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to \"other risk\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9050/) Now it is asked,", "resc": "**Given that an catastrophe occurs caused by \"other risks\" that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?**\n\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) that is caused by \"other\" causes does not occur. It resolves *positively* if such a catastrophe does occur, **and** the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. \n\nThe question resolves negative if a global catastrophe caused by \"other risks\" occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) the post-catastrophe population remains above 5% of the pre-catastrophe population over the subsequent 25 years.\n\n-------\n\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n6. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n7. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n\n", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "desc": "", "resc": "Metaculus' [Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/) explores threats to the human race. Several define a \"global catastrophe\" to mean a period of 5 years or less where the world population declines by 10% or more. Despite humanity's tumultuous history, including [World Wars 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) and [2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), the [1918 Flu pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), and the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), the only events likely to meet this criteria would be [the Black Death](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death) of 1347 and the year 560 [Plague of Justinian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian). For other estimates of major pandemics, see [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics).\n\nMetaculus has some other estimates of extinction or near extinction (all estimates as of December 29, 2021):\n\n* 2% [chance of extinction by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/).\n* 25% (or less) of extinction [conditional on a decline to 100 million humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/time-of-recovery-following-global-catastrophe/) by year 2345.\n* 25% of extinction within 20 years, [conditional on a decline to 400 million humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8103/extinction-if-population-falls-400-million/) by year 2100.\n\nThe Ragnarök Series attempts to forecast the relative severity of various existential risks, such as Climate, Nuclear War, Artificial Intelligence, Biological Engineering and Biological Weapons, and Nanotechnology. While those these recieve the majority of attention and concern in 2021, there may be risks resulting from unforseen future developments, or risks from dangers currently known but recieving insufficient attention. For this question, we'll ask about the risk of population decline by any cause as a point of comparison.\n\n***Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, after the world population declines by 10% (in any period of 5 years or less), the global population is less than 5% of the pre-decline population at any point within 25 years after the catastrophe. This question will resolve as **No** if there is a global population decline of 10% in 5 years or less, but there is no population decline of 95% in a 25-year period. If there is no such population decline of 10% in any 5-year period between January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2100, this question will resolve as **Ambiguously.**\n\n-------\n\n\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Check out the other questions in the series:\n\n1. [If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n2. [If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n3. [If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n\n4. [If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\n\n5. [If a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7795/)\n\n6. [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9060/global-catastrophe-causing-near-extinction/)\n\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n\n7. [By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n\n8. [Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n\n9. [Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n\n10. [Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n\n11. [Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n\n12. [Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\n\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", "prediction": "23%"} +{"title": "Will Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden all have Queens regnant simultaneously before the year 2100?", "desc": "Starting in the 19th century, there has been a long-term movement towards legal and societal equality for women, removing restrictions such as them voting or owning property. In the 1970s, European monarchies began questioning their laws that give men preference in succeeding to the throne over their elder sisters; the first such change passed in Sweden in 1979, reversing the order of succession between the infant children of King Carl XVI Gustaf, princess Victoria (b. 1977) and prince Carl Philip (b. 1979).\n\nEven in a realm like Spain, which legally still uses male-preference primogeniture, it is expected that Infanta Leonor will ascend to the throne once the reign of her father, King Felipe VI, ends.\n\nBesides Princesses Victoria and Leonor, who are first in the line in their respective nations, Princess Elisabeth of Belgium and Princess Catharina Amalia of the Netherlands are heiresses apparent, so also first in line, while Princess Ingrid Alexandra of Norway is second in line, behind her father, Crown Prince Haakon. \n\nThe question is also true if other women alive as of January 02, 2022 are the monarchs. For example, Victoria is a generation older than the other princesses, and has a daughter of her own, Estelle. Leonor has a younger sister, Infanta Sofía. The other three European constitutional monarchies - Denmark, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom - have only men in the direct, most likely succession line so are excluded from this question; and the other monarchies in Europe (Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco and the Vatican City) are considered too small to matter for our purposes, besides other complexities.\n\nFor reference, here are the years of birth of the people in question, beginning with the current Kings:\n\n- Belgium: Filip (1960) – Elisabeth (2001)\n\n- Netherlands: Willem-Alexander (1967) – Catharina-Amalia (2003)\n\n- Norway: Harald V (1937) – Haakon (1973) – Ingrid Alexandra (2004)\n\n- Spain: Felipe VI (1968) – Leonor (2005)\n\n- Sweden: Carl XVI Gustaf (1946) – Victoria (1977) – Estelle (2012)", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, at any point between January 1, 2020 to January 1 2100, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden all have a woman as their head monarch (or \"Queen\") at the same time.", "prediction": "54%"} +{"title": "Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?", "desc": "[Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton), born October 26, 1947, is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer, and public speaker who served as the 67th United States secretary of state from 2009 to 2013, as a United States senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, and as first lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001 as the wife of President Bill Clinton.\n\nA member of the Democratic Party, she was the party's nominee for president in [the 2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), becoming the first woman to win a presidential nomination by a major U.S. political party. Clinton won the popular vote in the election, but did not win enough Electoral College votes to become president, losing to Donald Trump, who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\n\nAs of January 2022, incumbent President Joe Biden, the oldest president in history, is unpopular, with [a 42.2% approval rating.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) Due to his advanced age and low popularity, there has been speculation that he will not be re-nominated by the Democratic Party as their candidate in the 2024 presidential election, and [some have suggested that Clinton could make a comeback](https://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-2024-comeback-president-biden-harris-democrat-nominee-race-2022-midterm-loss-11641914951) and seek the presidency once more.", "resc": "This question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that on or before August 7 2024, 90 days before the election, Hillary Clinton (or agents acting on her behalf and with her consent) has filed 'FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy' with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. Clinton must be a candidate for the office of president of the United States; candidacy for any other office (including vice president) will not suffice for positive resolution", "prediction": "0.1%"} +{"title": "Will the Humani Bedford Old Baobab die by 2027?", "desc": "Flowering plants (angiospermiae) are the clade of plants that produce flowers for reproduction. The longest-living known flowering plants are the baobabs ([Adansonia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adansonia)). The oldest baobabs consist of multiple stems with different ages. [Five of the six oldest known baobabs have at least partially collapsed in recent years](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0170-5). The oldest remaining tree is the [Humani Bedford Old Baobab](http://chem.ubbcluj.ro/~studiachemia/issues/chemia2019_2T2/35_Patrut_etal_411_419.pdf) in the Savé valley in Zimbabwe. It is estimated to be 1800 years old.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the death of the Humani Bedford old Baobab on a date before January 1, 2027 is reported on the website of the [Savé Valley Conservancy](https://savevalleyconservancy.org/), in a credible media source or a scientific paper before June 1, 2027.", "prediction": "56%"} +{"title": "Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "desc": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Singapore is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "prediction": "24%"} +{"title": "Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "desc": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2\n) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\n\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\n\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\n\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Israel is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "prediction": "39%"} +{"title": "Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "desc": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\nOne of the most important [papers](https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(19)31210-3.pdf) on embryo selection was coauthored by Israeli, Greek, and American researchers including Hebrew University's Shai Carmi, and found an expected gain of 2.5 IQ points using 2018 polygenic scores. It was [reported](https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-research-Can-genetic-testing-and-selection-make-your-baby-smart-608550) [on](https://www.timesofisrael.com/scientists-say-smart-and-tall-designer-babies-out-of-reach-for-now/) in the Israeli media. In an [article on genetic engineering](https://www.docdroid.net/kkx0XperMZ/haaretz-brave-new-baby-pdf#page=2\n) in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Carmi is quoted as saying that the gains may be up to seven IQ points in the foreseeable future.\n\nIsrael has [generous](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240566182030023X) [state-subsidized](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [pre-implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) through in-vitro fertilization (IVF) for a large basket of genetic diseases. Israel's public health insurance covers PGD for up to two children per family. The practice spans the Israeli religious spectrum, from secular to ultra-Orthodox. Israelis are also [avid aborters](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-the-abortion-conundrum-how-far-israelis-go-to-ensure-their-babies-are-born-perfect-1.7362524) of fetuses with Down Syndome.\n\nIsrael had the [fastest COVID vaccine rollout in the world](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/israels-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-the-fastest-in-the-world.html), [leads in 21st century Nobel Prizes per capita](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/05/29/four-nobel-truths/), has a [very developed science and technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_Israel) and [a developed biotech industry and stem cell industry in particular](https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-stem-cell-research-a-boom-industry-in-israel-1.5238166), and is a [leader in IVF](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/world/middleeast/18israel.html#:~:text=Unlike%20countries%20where%20couples%20can,the%20procedure%20in%20the%20world.) and [fertility technology.](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) Israel is a leader in many 21st century technologies, such as [cyber](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/half-of-global-cybersecurity-investment-has-been-in-israel-pm-bennett-says-1.10546684)[security](https://www.jns.org/israel-ranks-among-strongest-global-cyber-powers/) and [desalination](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/israel-proves-the-desalination-era-is-here/). It is expected to be early on [approving cultivated meat](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8846/approval-of-cultivated-meat-in-israel/) as well as [self-driving](https://unitedwithisrael.org/self-driving-robotaxis-to-hit-tel-aviv-in-2022/) [cars](https://www.jpost.com/jpost-tech/mobileye-unveils-new-self-driving-taxi-will-launch-in-tel-aviv-in-2022-678860).\n\nJudaism is generally bioethically permissive. Jewish authorities [universally agree](https://www.nature.com/articles/nm0309-238b) that a preimplantation embryo does not have the same sacred title to life as an implanted embryo. Unlike Christianity, Judaism [supports](https://www.rollcall.com/2005/06/10/evangelicals-orthodox-jews-split-on-stem-cells/) stem cell research. Orthodox Israeli physician [Shimon Glick](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Glick) [wrote](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-experts-pan-chinese-gene-editing-as-drastic-human-experimentation/) that it is [ethical](https://philpapers.org/rec/GLISJT) [to raise IQ using genetic engineering](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.884.114&rep=rep1&type=pdf), and that Jewish law does not prohibit it and in fact supports it because it raises quality of life. Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis are [avid](https://forward.com/news/israel/347368/the-drive-to-make-the-perfect-israeli-baby/) [consumers](https://www.jpost.com/magazine/advanced-procedures-bring-hope-to-couples-with-genetic-diseases-579959) of Israel's pre-implantation genetic diagnosis and of the genetic testing that [Dor Yeshorim](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dor_Yeshorim) does, and Israel has an [embryo selection company](https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-startup-looks-to-improve-ivf-for-millions-of-couples-656242) started by an ultra-Orthodox mother of four. [Tay-Sachs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tay%E2%80%93Sachs_disease), a genetic disease common among [Ashkenazi Jews](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jews), who make up about half of Israel's population and about 40% of the total population, has been [virtually eliminated](https://www.haaretz.com/1.4706480) in Israel, where only one baby with Tay-Sachs was born in 2003.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Israel is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "prediction": "76%"} +{"title": "Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "desc": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and [a notebook.](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/) \n\n[Lee Kuan Yew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew), the founder of Singapore, was a [big](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2009/01/behavioral_genetics_in_singapore.html) [believer](https://lkyonrace.wordpress.com/) in the [heritability of intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ) In his 1983 National Day Rally speech, Lee Kuan Yew [warned](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1467811127044325377) that the higher fertility among people with a lower education level would lower the population's intelligence. In 2021, Singapore's Ministry of Health [approved](https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-approves-genetic-testing-for-ivf-embryos-as-a-mainstream-clinical-service) more services for genetic testing. The Ministry of Health must authorize the practice, and has only authorized it in the case where there is a risk of a genetic disorder. In a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Singaporeans were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than most of the other populations surveyed. Singapore was [the first country in the world to approve cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/) and it has a [developed technology sector.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/11/a-close-look-at-singapores-thriving-startup-ecosystem/)", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Singapore is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "desc": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if China is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "desc": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7925/china-and-designer-babies/) asked if most of the first 100 newborns selected for intelligence would be born in China.\n\n[Some commentators](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) have suggested that China, which has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. The [Beijing Genomic Institute](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) had a [cognitive genomics project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BGI_Group#Cognitive_Genomics_Project), though it was never completed. In 2019, Chinese scientist He Jiankui created the world's first CRISPR babies, but the Chinese government [jailed him for three years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-50944461). Nevertheless, China has embraced [embryo selection for diseases](https://www.nature.com/articles/548272a) through preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD). While polling on mainland China is [restricted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_research_and_opinion_polling_in_China), a [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found Taiwan and Singapore, which like China are mostly [Han](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Chinese), have a relatively high level of support for \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if China is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "prediction": "57%"} +{"title": "Will the USA be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "desc": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). \n [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the United States is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "desc": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nThe United States is a [world leader in science and technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_technology_in_the_United_States) and is [leading the world in Nobel Prizes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonbruner/2011/10/05/nobel-prizes-and-american-leadership-in-science-infographic/?sh=42afd89d2b85). American companies Pfizer and Moderna developed two of the most effective COVID vaccines, and the United States had an early vaccination drive, vaccinating 10% of its population by early February 2021, earlier than the vast majority of other countries. The United States has [no regulations on preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5612618/), and it is home to embryo selection startups like [Genomic Prediction](https://www.lifeview.com/) and [Orchid](https://www.orchidhealth.com/embryo). \n [Public polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that the US public is not particularly supportive of \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence but [younger Americans are more supportive of the technology](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/). There has been some political opposition to embryo selection and other scientfiic advances from the [right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_Republican_Party#Abortion_and_embryonic_stem_cell_research), as many right-wing Americans are Christians who believe that [life beings at conception](https://www.princeton.edu/~prolife/articles/embryoquotes2.html) as well as from the [left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit), who have referred to embryo selection as \"eugenics\". The [first polygenically screened baby](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/welcome-polygenically-screened-babies) was [born in the United States](https://www.ivfbabble.com/on-the-40th-anniversary-of-the-first-ivf-in-the-usa-the-first-baby-elizabeth-jordan-carr-looks-at-how-science-today-has-produced-a-new-world-first-baby-aurea/) in 2021. Abortion [remains legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_the_United_States) in the United States, and [recent challenges](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/20/supreme-court-texas-abortion-law-challenge/) to the legal status of abortion have not called for the criminalization of preimplantation diagnosis, or even for the criminalization of abortion in the first few weeks past pregnancy.\n\n[American](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23838) [media](https://www.vice.com/en/article/5gw8vn/chinas-taking-over-the-world-with-a-massive-genetic-engineering-program) has suggested that China, which is a [rival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) of the United States and has a quickly growing [biotechnology industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biotechnology_industry_in_China), will embrace embryo selection for intelligence. American professors have expressed [concern](https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/) that the United States is losing its edge over China in scientific progress.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the United States is the first country with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will Apple buy Peloton before 2050?", "desc": "With the recent announcement of Peloton's [production](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peloton-stock-is-crashing-on-reports-its-halting-production-of-bikes-and-treadmills-183616826.html) [ramp-down](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html) and subsequent firing of CEO John Foley, questions have been raised about whether the company will survive a decrease in demand for at-home fitness equipment as the COVID-19 pandemic turns endemic. Apple, with its large cash reserves and its own Fitness+ brand, would be a prime parent for Peloton.\n\nSources on reasons for Apple to purchase Peloton:\n1. [Why it makes sense for Apple for buy Peloton - Macworld](https://www.macworld.com/article/608948/why-it-makes-sense-apple-buy-peloton.html)\n2. [Investor calls on Peloton to explore sale to Apple - 9to5Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2022/01/24/peloton-apple-sale-investor-report/)", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if Peloton is purchased by Apple by January 1, 2050. The completion of a transaction, with Peloton's stock being taken off the publicly traded market, resolves the question affirmatively. If Peloton's stock is no longer public traded, either because they have been bought by another company or cease to exist, then the question resolves negatively. If Peloton is de-listed in order to become a private company or if they remain a publicly traded company, then the question remains open. In case where Peloton is taken private and then major financial news outlets report a sale to Apple, the question resolves positively", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will an epidemic or agroterrorist attack on US agriculture cause at least $20 billion (2021 USD) in damage by 2040?", "desc": "[The COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covid-19_pandemic) is a stark reminder that biological pathogens can cause widespread economic and societal damage if left unchecked. An often neglected aspect of biorisk concerns pathogens and pests that harm crops and livestock. The US agricultural industry produces approximately [$136 billion worth of food yearly](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/), and total agricultural/food services near $1.1 trillion. America enjoys the largest export shares of corn, wheat and soybean markets. By a wide margin, the country donates the most food to aid programs worldwide - [2 million metric tonnes of food](https://www.bu.edu/pardee/files/2017/03/Multiple-Breadbasket-Failures-Pardee-Report.pdf) (in 2012, the last year that the World Food Programme reported this statistic.) Any significant disruptions to the country's agricultural sector can cost billions of dollars.\n\nLike humans, plants and livestock suffer from all kinds of detrimental viruses, fungus, bacteria and pests. Researchers have attempted to conduct crop loss assessments, with estimations of [20-40% total crop loss](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-018-0793-y.epdf?author_access_token=MyBtUyjP4EETMEPsZHbtRNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0N2tyDNBunCIaNaZLkp0l4KlbYfcWYAF-cp8qsu0X0F97c09poYPg6-6oGQDttRhM2ss1tJ3YZuSiUdV_2CKgYgfyCAKhdr9kCQ2qCsOSjlzA%3D%3D) due to pathogens, pests and weeds. Examples of major disease outbreaks include:\n\n* Wheat rusts, a prominent fungal infection, are estimated at $5 billion globally, with losses due to Fusarium head blight estimated at [$3 billion annually](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257788783_Crop_losses_due_to_diseases_and_their_implications_for_global_food_production_losses_and_food_security). \n\n* Soybean rust, a fungal infection, causes several billion dollars in soybean damage a year in Brazil.\n\n* African Swine Fever (ASF) cost China north of [$100 billion in direct/indirect losses](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00362-1) and if it were to make the jump to America, the disease could cost an estimated [$15-50 billion in damages](https://www.card.iastate.edu/products/publications/synopsis/?p=1300). \n\n* In 2014-2015, 12% of egg-laying chickens in America died of Avian influenza or were culled to curb the disease, [resulting in major losses](https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/86282/ldpm-282-02.pdf?v=169).\n\nOn average, economic impacts of a major disease outbreak range from [$2.5-4 billion](https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/45980/12171_err57_1_.pdf?v=0). These impacts are typically calculated by measuring losses from reduced food yields as well as decreased exports due to trade restrictions levied by other countries.\n\n[Agroterrorism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agro-terrorism) is another concern. In 2004, former Secretary Tommy Thompson of Health and Human Services famously said: “For the life of me I cannot understand why the terrorists haven't attacked our food supply because it is so easy to do so.” Nevertheless, there are [barely any instances](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/CSDS/books/Agroterror%20book%20final.pdf?ver=VUan7LtQ1Dx2nHW0IQFWIw%3d%3d) of terrorist attacks on farms, feedlots or ranches.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if US crops or livestock suffers >$20 billion in damage ([inflation adjusted to 2021 USD](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL)) due to an epidemic, pest infestation or agroterrorism attack beginning between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2040. For this question, crops and livestock include all plants or animals cultivated for food (for consumption by humans or livestock). Economic losses, which may include direct production losses as well as indirect losses from decreased consumer purchasing or export restrictions, must be determined by USDA ERS or other credible source. Losses may be calculated for any period up to 5 years, but must be attributed to a single event (a single disease, rather than all disease outbreaks which total to $20 billion in damage; or a single agroterror attack, not the sum of several independent attacks)", "prediction": "37%"} +{"title": "Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?", "desc": "", "resc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [In which year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/first-year-of-global-temperature-above-2c/)\n* [Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/)\n\n----\n\nThis question concerns a longbets.org bet over the global temperature. John Mitchell and Zeke Hausfather summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/883/).\n\n**Will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?**\n\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares John Mitchell the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Zeke Hausfather the winner, then this question resolves negatively. If the bet has not been publicly resolved by the Long Now Foundation by January 1, 2040, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nThe Longbets terms are repeated below:\n\n> John Mitchell will win the bet if the Berkeley Earth Global Average Temperature Anomaly with Sea Ice Temperature Inferred from Air Temperatures dataset reports an annual (January through December) temperature anomaly of over 2C relative to the 1850-1899 baseline period on or before the published value corresponding to the calendar year 2037. Zeke Hausfather will win the bet if an annual temperature anomaly of 2C relative to the 1850-1899 baseline period does not occur before the published calendar year 2037 value. The latest version of the Berkeley Earth global temperature dataset will be used to adjudicate this bet. The temperature anomaly with respect to 1850-1899 will be calculated by subtracting the mean of monthly temperature anomalies over that period (January 1850-December 1899) from the record reported by Berkeley Earth. In the case in which the Berkeley Earth product is discontinued, the Hadley Centre/UEA HadCRUT dataset will be used.", "prediction": "31%"} +{"title": "Will at least one work presented at Art Basel 2030 use an NFT?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What percent of exhibitors at Art Basel (in Basel, Switzerland) in 2030 will offer an NFT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9588/-of-exhibitors-with-nfts-at-art-basel-2030/)\n\n----\n\n[Non-Fungible Tokens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFTs) are unique tokens which store data on decentralized, cryptographically-secured [blockchains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain). These tokens can record changes of ownership and prices paid for transfers. NFTs have become increasingly popular in the art collector community as a means of establishing provenance for digital artworks.\n\n[Art Basel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Art_Basel) is the world's premier venue for contemporary art, including new-media and digital art. In 2021, all three of the Art Basel fairs (Miami Beach, Hong Kong, and Basel) featured NFTs. They were especially prominent at Art Basel Miami Beach, November 30 - December 4, 2021.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if any work presented at Art Basel in 2030 is available for sale as a [Non-Fungible Token](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-fungible_token#Standards_in_blockchains) (NFT). Art presented at any of the 2030 Art Basel fairs (Basel, Miami Beach, Hong Kong) will be sufficient to resolve the question. A \"Non-Fungible Token\" for the purposes of this question will include any unique token which can be exchanged and recorded on a [cryptographic blockchain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain) (that is, not just restricted to [ERC-721](http://erc721.org/) or [Etherium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum)-based NFT systems). Resolution may come from official announcements by Art Basel, credible media reports, or public blockchain data.\n\nIf no events are held by Art Basel in 2030, resolution may include events in 2031. If there are no such events by Art Basel between January 1, 2030 to January 1, 2032, this question will resolve ambiguously", "prediction": "56%"} +{"title": "Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?", "desc": "Nigeria experienced nine attempted or successful [coups](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_coups_in_Nigeria) between 1966 and 1993. The country [exited](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Nigerian_Republic) military rule in 1999.\n\nRecent (starting 2021) military coups or coup attempts in Western Africa and the Sahel region have occurred in [Niger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt), [Mali](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), [Guinea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), [Sudan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2021_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), and [Burkina Faso](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Burkinab%C3%A9_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat).\n\nNigeria has been suffering from several [severe issues](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/10/23/insurgency-secessionism-and-banditry-threaten-nigeria) in 2021, including jihadist insurgency in the north, kidnapping gangs, as well as resurgent Biafran separatism. In 2021, The Economist called Nigeria \"[ungovernable](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/how-kidnappers-zealots-and-rebels-are-making-nigeria-ungovernable/21805737)\" and Foreign Policy called the nation a \"[failed state](https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/27/nigeria-is-a-failed-state/)\".", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if an armed group takes control of the government of Nigeria for a period of 7 days or more between January 1, 2022 and January 1, 2025. This coup need not be brought by violence or assassination of Nigerian heads of state, but must not occur due to normal democratic processes such as a free democratic election or voluntary resignation by heads of state. Credible media reports will suffice as a source", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will humanity find and exploit a new source of xenon on Earth before 2040?", "desc": "Xenon is a rare noble gas used in various applications such as ion propulsion, lighting, and medicine. However, xenon is much scarcer in Earth's atmosphere than expected based on observations of other matter in the universe. This is known as the mystery of the missing xenon.\n\n[Some scientists speculate](https://gl.carnegiescience.edu/news/case-missing-xenon) that the \"missing\" xenon may be sequestered somewhere underground. Others believe it may have left the planet [long ago](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2012.11564).", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if before 2040:\n\n- A new source of xenon is found on Earth that was not verified before March 3rd, 2023\n- This source of xenon is reported by at least two [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) to be under active exploitation for commercial use by humans", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "If a Republican wins the 2024 US Presidential Election, will the US withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before 2029?", "desc": "The United States withdrew from the 2015 Paris Agreement in [November 2020](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54797743), following an announcement in June 2017 that the United States would withdraw by President Trump and giving formal notice of its intention to leave the agreement in [November 2019](https://www.npr.org/2019/11/04/773474657/u-s-formally-begins-to-leave-the-paris-climate-agreement). After the election of Joe Biden as President in 2020, the United States [rejoined the Paris Agreement in 2021](https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/). In April 2021, [Nicholas Chan](https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/america-s-back-paris-agreement-how-long) wrote for The Interpreter:\n\n>For how long will this moment last? Or will the world once again face a US climate “Groundhog Day” come the next presidential electoral cycle in three years? This prospect depends on whether the Trumpist foreign policy approach to multilateralism persists in the Republican party [...]\n\nThe [Paris Agreement](https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement) is a legally-binding international treaty on Climate Change, agreed upon at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference ([COP 21](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference)). The Paris Agreement's long term temperature goal is to keep global warming below 2 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels, and preferably below 1.5 degrees celsius. Global emissions would need to be [cut by around 50%](https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/15c/) in order to reach the 1.5 degrees celsius goal, and in 2019 the United States had the [second highest level of CO2 Emissions](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?facet=none&country=CHN~USA&Gas=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Consumption-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country&Relative+to+world+total=true) behind China.", "resc": "The question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2029, the United States President formally notifies the United Nations that it will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, conditional on the United States President on June 1, 2025 being a Republican. An informal announcement that the United States intends to withdraw from the Paris Agreement will not resolve the question.\n\nIf the US President on June 1, 2025 is not a member of the Republican party, this question will resolve ambiguously", "prediction": "80%"} +{"title": "Will the Billion Oyster Project restore 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035?", "desc": "[Murray Fisher](https://www.linkedin.com/in/murray-fisher-a120806/) and [Pete Malinowski](https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-malinowski-148101b/) created the [Billion Oyster Project](https://www.billionoysterproject.org/our-story) in 2014 to restore oysters to New York Harbor. These oysters offer many ecosystem services; they can help decontaminate waters of certain pollutants, act as storm-surge barriers, and contribute to biodiversity as a keystone species. To date (*), the Billion Oyster Project claims to have restored ~75 million live oysters.\n\n(*) [website](https://www.billionoysterproject.org/our-story) last accessed 31 January 2022, 7:45pm EST\n\nOn their website, they write:\n\n> Did you know that New York Harbor was once home to 220,000 acres of oyster reefs? Or, that an adult oyster can filter up to 50 gallons of water a day? The historic evidence of oysters in New York Harbor, combined with the oyster's reputation as an “ecosystem engineer”, drives us to return New York Harbor to its rightful place as an ecological treasure. Here's why we need them:\n> \n> Like coral reefs, oyster reefs provide 3D habitat for hundreds of species. Oysters grow off of one another — creating a hardy infrastructure for a lively underwater city of marine wildlife. Reefs are to the ocean what trees are to the forest.\n> \n> Oysters filter water as they eat, which helps clarify the water and remove certain pollutants, including nitrogen. This is very important to a marine ecosystem, because excessive nitrogen triggers algal blooms that deplete the water of oxygen and create “dead zones.”\n> \n> Massive oyster reef systems in New York Harbor were once a natural defense against storm damage—softening the blow of large waves, reducing flooding, and preventing erosion.\n> \n> Today, the Governor's Office of Storm Recovery (GOSR) is implementing coastal green infrastructure through the Living Breakwaters Project to mimic the reef systems that once existed off of southern Staten Island. Billion Oyster Project will install oysters on and around the infrastructure designed by SCAPE Landscape Architecture.\n\nThe Billion Oyster Project aims to meet its goal of 1 billion oysters in the harbor by 2035. In the coming years, they expect an increase in their oyster restoration capabilities.\n\n> We are currently piloting oyster setting processes that will allow us to scale to 25 million oysters per field season by 2024.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, the (Billion Oyster Project AND Pace University) OR (any National Science Foundation grant report) claims that the Billion Oyster Project has restored 1 billion live oysters in New York Harbor.", "prediction": "53%"} +{"title": "Will China's GDP Overtake the US Before 2030?", "desc": "[In 2020 China's GDP increased by 2.3% while the US' decreased by 2.3%](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/new-chart-shows-china-gdp-could-overtake-us-sooner-as-covid-took-its-toll.html). Furthermore in 2021 [China's GDP grew 8.1% to 114.367 trillion yuan](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-01-17/China-s-GDP-tops-114-36-trillion-yuan-in-2021-16T64Jt0na8/index.html), while the [US' grew 5.7% to $22.99 trillion](https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/usa). China's faster economic recovery during the coronavirus pandemic has [led some analysts to conclude](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/new-chart-shows-china-gdp-could-overtake-us-sooner-as-covid-took-its-toll.html) that China may overtake the US as early as 2028. [With others believing](https://www.newsweek.com/china-u-s-economy-gdp-capital-economics-1570558) that China may never overtake the US due to a declining workforce and strict controls on the economy.", "resc": "This questions resolves affirmatively if the GDP of the People's Republic of China, as published by [World Bank Open Data](https://data.worldbank.org/), in any of the years from 2022-2029 is higher than the GDP of the United States in that same year", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will BB(5) be known by 2040?", "desc": "The [Busy Beavers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver) are Turing machines that run for the maximum amount of time before halting, given their size. For this question, the function BB(n) will be taken as the maximum shifts function (often denoted S(n)) for a two-symbol, n-state Turing machine. The first few values are BB(1) = 1, BB(2) = 6, BB(3) = 21, BB(4) = 107.\n\nFor larger values of n, BB(n) is not decidable with [Peano Arithmetic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9429/smallest-value-of-bb-not-decided-by-pa/) or [ZFC](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9431/smallest-value-of-bb-not-decided-by-zfc/). However, BB(n) remains unknown even for relatively small values of n.\n\nThe current record holder Turing Machine for BB(5) halts after 47176870 steps. However, it is possible that some other machine runs for longer while still halting. While most 5-state machines have been proven to halt sooner or never halt, the halting status of a few remain unknown.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if the value of the 5th Busy Beaver number is conclusively decided by 2040-01-01.", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will any jurisdiction adopt futarchy by 2070?", "desc": "As discussed by the [Long Now Foundation](https://longnow.org/ideas/02007/11/22/futarchy/), [futarchy](https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html) \n\n> is an untried form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which officials define measures of national welfare while prediction markets determine which policies are most desirable. In Hanson's words, “we would vote on values, but bet on beliefs.”\n> \n> Futarchy is based on the assumption that poor nations are poor because their governments adopt flawed policies, despite expertise recommending otherwise. Although this assumption may be problematic, in that it boils economic stagnation down to sheer misjudgment, the question of how to render governments accountable to public opinion regarding the future is a valuable one. Futarchy intends to address this by having democratically-elected representatives formally define and manage after-the-fact measurements of national welfare, while allowing market speculators to determine which policies are expected to raise national welfare (Hanson). According to Hanson, “the basic rule of government would be: when a betting market clearly estimates that a proposed policy would increase expected national welfare, that proposal becomes law.”", "resc": "This question resolves positively if, by 2070, any jurisdiction institutes laws consistent with the concept of _futarchy_. Such a jurisdiction need not refer to the term \"futarchy\" or reference Robin Hanson's name directly, but should govern at least 10,000 people. A positive resolution would also be triggered if a nation experiments with futarchy, similar to how nations have experimented with UBI; in this case, just as with the UBI experiments, real currency (not points or tokens) would have to be used. This question resolves negatively if no futarchy is implemented by the year 2070", "prediction": "16%"} +{"title": "Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?", "desc": "Federal employees of the United States are protected from discriminative hiring practices by a host of difference acts and laws. Some of these, as detailed by the [Federal Trade Commission](https://www.ftc.gov/site-information/no-fear-act/protections-against-discrimination) (FTC) and enforced by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), include\n\n- [Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/title-vii-civil-rights-act-1964)\n- [Equal Pay Act of 1963](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/equal-pay-act-1963)\n- [Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/age-discrimination-employment-act-1967)\n- [Rehabilitation Act of 1973](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/rehabilitation-act-1973)\n- [The Civil Rights Act of 1991](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/civil-rights-act-1991)\n\nFrom the FTC\n\n > The laws enforced by EEOC makes it unlawful for Federal agencies to discriminate against employees and job applicants on the bases of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability, or age. A person who files a complaint or participates in an investigation of an EEO complaint, or who opposes an employment practice made illegal under any of the laws that EEOC enforces is protected from retaliation.\n\nOther protections exist as well, such as the [Pregnancy Discrimination Act](https://www.eeoc.gov/pregnancy-discrimination) and [Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act of 2008](https://www.eeoc.gov/statutes/genetic-information-nondiscrimination-act-2008).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Congress, the EEOC or another federal U.S. agency creates act(s), law(s) or regulation making it unlawful to disciminate against employees based on whether they have been screen or edited as embryos by 2100. Terms such as or similar to \"gene-edited\", \"polygenically screened\", \"embryo selected\", or \"genetically modified\" will trigger a positive resolution. If no such act is instituted by 2100, this question resolves negatively", "prediction": "53%"} +{"title": "Will Republicans support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats?", "desc": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). In particular, [two](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9535/usa-leads-in-embryo-selection-for-iq/) [previous](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9534/usa-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq/) questions asked about embryo selection for intelligence in the United States.\n\nA [2020 Pew poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) found that 17% of Americans said it would be appropriate to \"change a baby's genetic characteristics to make the baby more intelligent\", and [another poll](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public-views-about-biomedical-issues/) found Democratic support at 18% compared to Republican support at 13%. [Some on the left](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jb7w02E5GAdrJ_QnAokp7IerP_VBDridmQ-rI9M2TAE/edit) have referred to embryo selection as eugenics.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the percentage of Republican members of Congress who vote to permit embryo selection for intelligence or vote against banning embryo selection for intelligence is greater than the corresponding percentage for Democratic members of Congress on the first occasion a federal bill on the matter is taken to a vote. If the percentage is less, it resolves negatively. If the percentage is equal, it resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, if within a span of 4 years, 75% or more congresspeople in a given party all change membership to another party, that second party will be considered the same party under a new name. If no such vote comes up by 2300-01-01, this question resolves ambiguously", "prediction": "35%"} +{"title": "Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?", "desc": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/). \n\nThe [European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union) and the associated [Schengen Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area) have allowed for the movement of people and goods across Europe. Europeans are consumers of biotechnology technology in other countries. For instance, [40% of all fertility tourism in Europe is in Spain](https://www.tourism-review.com/fertility-tourism-developing-fast-in-spain-news10817) and [5% of the preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD)](https://www.szmc.org.il/eng/Departments/Medical-Genetics-Institute/PGD/) in Europe is handled through the Zohar Unit of Shaare Zedek Medical Center in Israel, a country that has [substantial scientific cooperation with the EU](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-eu-sign-scientific-agreement-1.5251196). Within Europe itself, [Denmark has the highest proportion of births from in vitro fertilization (IVF)](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45512312), though Israel has more IVF cycles per capita. [Opinion polling of European countries](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/) shows that few Europeans believe \"it would be appropriate to change a baby's genetic characteristics to make the baby more intelligent\", but many countries are not surveyed, for instance Denmark and Estonia.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if a member state of the European Union is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence within a single calendar year, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence.", "prediction": "38%"} +{"title": "Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030?", "desc": "There has been significant controversy around [LGBT rights in Poland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Poland). Homosexual activity has been legal in Poland since 1932. Nonetheless, some areas of Poland have declared themselves to be [LGBT-free zones](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Poland#%22LGBT-free_zones%22) and Poland currently does not recognize civil unions or gay marriage. The population generally [opposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Poland#Social_attitudes_and_public_opinion) [gay marriage](https://fra.europa.eu/sites/default/files/fra_uploads/lgbti-survey-country-data_poland.pdf). \n The ruling [PiS](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-eu-lgbt/poland-will-not-let-eu-force-it-into-allowing-gay-marriages-says-justice-minister-idUSKCN24L2E7) opposes gay marriage, but many opponents of PiS, such as former President [Wałęsa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lech_Wa%C5%82%C4%99sa#Post-presidency) also have conservative views on LGBT issues.", "resc": "This question resolves positive if marriages can take place anywhere within Poland between people of the same sex before 2030. It is permissible if the marriages can only take place in some parts of Poland but not other parts", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will Australia operate a nuclear power plant before 2042?", "desc": "Like other developed nations, Australia is embarking on a [period of transition](https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/emissions-reduction) in its energy generation methods, flagging intentions to reduce fossil-fuel power generation and increasing reliance on renewables inclding solar, wind and hydro. Australia has [never built a nuclear power station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Australia) in the electric grid.\n\nFossil fuels account for 93% of primary energy consumption in 2020, according to the [Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resource](https://www.energy.gov.au/data/energy-consumption). Of fossil fuel consumption, oil makes up 40%, coal 30%, and natural gas 30%. The share of coal in the electricity mix [has declined](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~AUS&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Coal&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Share+of+total), from 80% in 2000 to 54% in 2020.\n\nWhile Australia's nuclear industry is quite small and consiststs of a [single reactor facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-pool_Australian_lightwater_reactor) opened in 1958 at Lucas Heights in NSW, producing industrial and medical isotopes, a [recent military agreement](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/nuclear-submarine-base-shortlist-brisbane-newcastle-port-kembla/100887204) has increased the likelihood of Australia operating additional nuclear reactors - albeit in the form of nuclear powered submarines.\n\nThe Howard government commissioned the Switowski Report in 2006 which [concluded](https://www.smh.com.au/national/nuclear-power-in-australia-within-10-years-switkowski-20061127-gdowxg.html) that nuclear power could compete with coal if a carbon credit system was imposed on or by Australia. In response, the Labor party adopted an [anti-nuclear platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Australia), and won the 2007 election.\n\n[A September 2021 poll](https://essentialvision.com.au/support-for-nuclear-energy-in-australia) from Essential found 50% of Australian respondents in favor of nuclear energy, with 32% opposed, although a similar share (20%) were strongly in favor as those strongly opposed (17%).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Australia builds at least one fission-based nuclear power plant on or within 10 km of Australian land before January 1, 2042. The plant must be built and begin producing electricity for the commercial power grid before January 1, 2042 to resolve the question positively.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear power reactor\" refers to fission-based power generation which excludes other nuclear power generation methods such as fusion / magentic confinement technologies such as Tokamaks or any other non-fission device that might be developed", "prediction": "45%"} +{"title": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and China be on the same side?", "desc": "In [World War 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I), the [Beiyang government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beiyang_government) of China [played a limited role](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warlord_Era), but joined on the side of the [Allied Powers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allies_of_World_War_I), which included the United States.\n\nIn the [Second Sino-Japanese War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War), the Republic of China was invaded by Japan. After the [Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor), the United States [declared war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_declaration_of_war_on_Japan) on Japan, triggering the Axis powers in Europe to declare war on America, in solidarity with Japan. This had the effect of aligning China once again on the side of the Allied Powers, alongside the United States.\n\nRecently, some have speculated that there may be another world war, possibly rising from Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, or from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If another world war occurs, will China and the United States once again be on the same side?", "resc": "For the purpose of this question, the following clarifications are given:\n\n* The government of China during World War 3 is considered to be whatever government had _de facto_ control over Beijing prior to the outbreak of the war. If the starting date of World War 3 is in dispute, then it refers to January 1st of the year 3 years prior to the first time time it is understood that the world is in a state of \"world war\" (see the last point for a clarification of this condition).\n\n* The government of the United States is defined similarly to the way the government of China is defined. That is, the US government is whatever government had _de facto_ control over Washington D.C. prior to the outbreak of World War 3.\n\n* Two governments are said to be \"on the same side\" of a conflict if they regularly give aid and comfort to each other, actively fight a common enemy, or have formal treaties of alliance with each other, which are widely recognized to be valid.\n\n* A \"great power\" is a nation that ranks within the top ten nations by military spending, in nominal dollars, according to a reputable organization. These figures will ideally be decided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or if that organization ceases to exist, the International Institute for Strategic Studies. If both organizations either cease to exist or stop publishing figures on military spending, Metaculus admins will use their discretion to decide which organization to refer to.\n\n* The world is said to be in a state of \"world war\" if ANY of the following become true within a three year period, starting on January 1st of a particular year: (1) at least five great powers are all engaged in a direct, confrontational (non-proxy) war, with at least one great power on the other side of the other great powers (2) at least ten million people across at least three continents have died in conflicts that are widely considered to be related to one another, according to the United Nations, or another reputable international body as determined by Metaculus admins (a single localized civil war or genocide will not count), (3) at least one nuclear weapon has non-accidentally been deployed and used in wartime by a great power, in the course of a conflict, against another great power.\n\n* World War 3 is the next world war to occur after World War 2.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** in the case that World War 3 does not occur before January 1, 2060. It will resolve as **Yes** if the governments of the United States and China are on the same side during that war, and will resolve as **No** otherwise", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will Ukraine join the EU before 2030?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ukraine join the European Union by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10081/ukraine-in-eu-by-2024/)\n\n----\n\nPresident Zelenskyy of Ukraine [formally applied](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-eu-ukraine-membership/) to join the European Union on Monday, February 28, 2022. \n\n> \"We ask the European Union for Ukraine's immediate accession via a new special procedure,” he said, speaking on his Telegram channel as fighting with Russian troops continued across the country. “Our goal is to be together with all Europeans and, most importantly, to be on an equal footing. I'm sure it's fair. I'm sure it's possible.”\n\nThis application came one day after the European Commission President proclaimed that Ukraine belonged in the European Union. However, to admit a country into the EU requires an unanimous vote by the 27 countries already within the Union, something that may be difficult to complete as members worry about the expansion of the bloc. \n\nDespite contrasting opinions, a number of other Eastern European countries are pushing for the expedited admission of Ukraine to the EU. \n\n> \"The presidents of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia called on the EU to give Ukraine the “highest political support” and “enable the EU institutions to conduct steps to immediately grant Ukraine … EU candidate country status and open the process of negotiations.” In an interview with POLITICO on Sunday, Slovakia's Prime Minister Eduard Heger argued that Ukraine should be granted a “special track” toward the EU.\"", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** If Ukraine is formally admitted to the European Union at any time between March 1, 2022 to Jaunary 1, 2030. Official statements by the EU will be required for resolution. Ukraine must officially begin its membership during this period; an announcement or promise of future membership will not suffice", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "[According to Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_geoengineering) Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification, is a type of climate engineering in which sunlight (solar radiation) would be reflected back to outer space to limit or reverse human-caused climate change.\n\n[An independent initiative](https://www.solargeoeng.org) calls for an International Non-Use Agreement regarding solar geoengineering. The initiators' view is [that solar geoengineering is currently not desirable due to associated risks.](https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.754)\n\nThus, the initiative requests nations to prohibit the research and deployment of solar geoengineering. Furthermore, nations are asked to not support solar geoengineering in international institutions and to not grant any funds or patents.\n\n***Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent diplomatic agreement against solar geoengineering, before 2026?***\n\nThe question resolves **Yes** if, by the end of the day GMT on December 31st, 2025, 35 or more countries have committed as a matter of treaty obligation to:\n\n1. Ban solar geoengineering experiments\n\n #####AND\n\n2. Ban deployment of any technologies aimed at influencing the global climate by deliberately adding substances to the global atmosphere\n\n #####AND\n\n3. Bar government funds from any research into developing solar geoengineering capabilities, domestically and internationally\n\n #####AND\n\n4. Bar patent rights for inventions of a single-purpose solar geoengineering design\n\n #####AND\n\n5. Agree to work against the development or deployment of solar geoengineering capabilities in international relations and within international institutions.\n\nLand use and regulatory changes, vegetation planting, roof whitening, etc need not be banned as \"solar geoengineering\" under such a pact for the question to resolve \"yes.\"\n\n**All** of these criteria must be met by any treaty, and more than 34 countries must fully commit to these provisions, without reservations other than on purely procedural or intergovernmental questions, for the question to resolve \"yes.\"\n\nOtherwise it resolves **No** if *midnight on January 1st, 2026, GMT* arrives without these circumstances coming into being.\n\n*This question also has a less stringent companion:* [Will at least ten countries have committed to *any* diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13467/any-anti-solar-geo-engineering-pact-by-2026/)", "prediction": "1.8%"} +{"title": "Will 95% or more of Nigerians have a bank account before 2025?", "desc": "An important concept in economic development is [Financial Inclusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_inclusion): the degree which a population has access to affordable, convenient, and reliable banking and financial services. One basic measure of financial inclusion is the percent of a population with a bank account. According to the [World Bank](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/account-at-financial-institution?tab=chart&country=~NGA), 39.7% of Nigerians had a bank account in 2017, an increase from 29.7% in 2011. \n\n\n[Motta, V. 2020](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11187-018-0082-9) found a positive relationship between access to external finance and labor productivity of small/medium businesses.\n\nIn July 2019 Godwin Emefiele, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, [set a goal](https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2019/ccd/q2%202019%20financial%20inclusion%20newsletter_final_08.08.19.pdf) to reach 95% of the population with a bank account by 2024.", "resc": "This question will be resolve as \"Yes\" if 95% or more of Nigerians aged 18 or older have an account at a bank or financial institution before January 1, 2025. This question will resolve according to data from the [Central Bank of Nigeria](https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2019/ccd/q2%202019%20financial%20inclusion%20newsletter_final_08.08.19.pdf); if no such data is available, or said data is known to be inaccurate, data from [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/fx.own.totl.zs?locations=NG) may be considered, or from credible independent researchers.\n\nIf the data shows less than 95% of the population with a bank account through 2024, or If no such data is available by March 1, 2026, this question will resolve negatively", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?", "desc": "In a blog post, Paul Christiano argues that we should consider preserving a message that would be uncovered by a potential future civilization that may arise on Earth if humanity goes extinct. He [writes](https://sideways-view.com/2018/06/07/messages-to-the-future/),\n\n> If we humans manage to kill ourselves, we may not take all life on Earth with us. That leaves hope for another intelligent civilization to arise; if they do, we could potentially help them by leaving carefully chosen messages.\n\n> In this post I'll argue that despite sounding kind of crazy, this could potentially compare favorably to more conventional extinction risk reduction.\n\nHe offers a conditional prediction:\n\n> If humanity drives ourselves extinct (without AI), I think there is a ~1/2 chance that another intelligent civilization evolves while the earth remains habitable.", "resc": "For the purpose of this question, what it means for humanity to go extinct is that (1) no human is alive, and (2) none of our artificial or biological descendants are alive either (including our AI). This question will resolve ambiguously if humanity is not extinct by the year 10,000 AD. Otherwise, it will wait until Earth becomes uninhabitable for complex multi-cellular life before resolving.\n\nAnother intelligent civilization is said to evolve on Earth if some group of organisms develops any of the following technologies: agriculture, writing, or mathematics. The organisms must be direct descendants of current Earthly life (so, aliens who visit do not count). If such an intelligent civilization evolves on Earth after humans go extinct, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?", "desc": "A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/) asked if Iran would get a nuke by 2030, and [other](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8896/us-rejoins-iran-deal-in-2022/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8541/iran-nuclear-deal-by-2024/) have also asked about Iran's [substantial nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Iranian Regime credibly states it has a nuclear weapon or has tested a nuclear weapon at any time before January 1, 2041", "prediction": "76%"} +{"title": "Will the International Court of Justice rule before 2040 that Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine?", "desc": "The ICJ has issued an [injunction](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/16/un-court-orders-russia-to-cease-military-operations-in-ukraine) calling on Russia to withdraw. A legal expert [has suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/war-crimes-charges-wouldnt-scare-putin/2022/03/11/f00d6ada-a150-11ec-9438-255709b6cddc_story.html) that such an injunction could lead to a determination that Russia must pay reparations to the ICJ.\n\nUkraine has indicated they are at least [considering](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3431749-icj-to-consider-issue-of-russian-reparations-to-ukraine.html) pursuing Russia for reparations. This wouldn't be unprecedented. In February 2022, the ICJ [ordered Uganda](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/9/un-court-orders-uganda-to-pay-325m-in-reparations-to-dr-congo) to pay reparations to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if credible news sources report that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ordered Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine or if this is listed on the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/home). Reparations don't need to be paid for this question to resolved positively; there must only be an order from ICJ to pay them.", "prediction": "81%"} +{"title": "Will Turkey's annual inflation fall to 4% or less before 2025?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [What will be the average inflation in Turkey from 2022 to 2024 (inclusive)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10358/turkish-annual-inflation-2022-to-2024/)\n\n----\n\nTurkey has been in a significant [debt and inflation crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932022_Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis) since 2018. This has been partially attributed to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's belief that [lowering interest rates boosts economic growth](https://apnews.com/article/business-middle-east-europe-prices-inflation-d462a5d85364a50f159fa620287b9f21) and reduces inflation, whereas most nation's central banks follow the opposite strategy of raising interest rates to fight inflation. The value of the Turkish Lira against the USD has [fallen by 28%](https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=TRY&to=USD) from November 2021 to February 2022. Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati [said in March 2022,](https://gulfnews.com/business/banking/turkeys-finance-minister-says-the-rise-in-energy-prices-is-accelerating-inflation-1.86573615) \"What we have seen in recent months is that the exchange rate is stable and moves forward within acceptable limits\".\n\nInflation in Turkey has been above 10% since November 2019, and reached 54% in February 2022. President Erdogan [said in December 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-says-he-lowered-inflation-4-before-will-do-it-again-soon-2021-12-19/), \"Sooner or later, just as we lowered inflation all the way to 4% when I came to power, we will lower it again. But, I will not let my citizens, my people, be crushed under interest rates\". Annual Inflation did drop to 4.0% in March 2011, however the average inflation that year was 6.5%. The IMF's [October 2021 World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/October/weo-report?c=186,&s=PCPIPCH,&sy=2019&ey=2026&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1) survey expects inflation to remain high, averaging at 13.55% from 2022 to 2024.", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if Turkey's annual inflation is under 4.0% for any month from January 2022 to December 2024 (inclusive), according to the [Turkish Statistical Institute](https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=enflasyon-ve-fiyat-106&dil=2) (TurkStat). For comparison, the lowest annual inflation from 2018 to 2020 (inclusive) is 8.55% on October 2019 according to [TurkStat](https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/DownloadIstatistikselTablo?p=KMExlm5AVU2ln21dc2evQ2SnPKPmGEBqV6H8CcJSjNNBzZZT2CJNzYtIqx1WGQK8).\n\nTo resolve the question positively, any qualifying month published by TurkStat will be considered official 6 months after publication, to account for any revisions or corrections. If TurkStat's data is incomplete, unavailable, or known to be innacurate, Metaculus Admins may choose another credible source, at their discretion", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "If World War 3 happens before 2060, will the US and India be on the same side?", "desc": "In World War 1 & 2, India was under the rule of the British Crown, as part of the British Raj. As a result, it joined the wars [on the side](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Army_during_World_War_I) [of the allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_in_World_War_II).\n\nRecently, some have speculated that there may be another world war, possibly rising from Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, or from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If another world war occurs, will India and the United States once again be on the same side?", "resc": "For the purpose of this question, the following clarifications are given:\n\n* The government of India during World War 3 is considered to be whatever government had _de facto_ control over New Delhi prior to the outbreak of the war. If the starting date of World War 3 is in dispute, then it refers to January 1st of the year 3 years prior to the first time time it is understood that the world is in a state of \"world war\" (see the last point for a clarification of this condition).\n\n* The government of the United States is defined similarly to the way the government of India is defined. That is, the US government is whatever government had _de facto_ control over Washington D.C. prior to the outbreak of World War 3.\n\n* Two governments are said to be \"on the same side\" of a conflict if they regularly give aid and comfort to each other, actively fight a common enemy, or have formal treaties of alliance with each other, which are widely recognized to be valid.\n\n* A \"great power\" is a nation that ranks within the top ten nations by military spending, in nominal dollars, according to a reputable organization. These figures will ideally be decided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or if that organization ceases to exist, the International Institute for Strategic Studies. If both organizations either cease to exist or stop publishing figures on military spending, Metaculus admins will use their discretion to decide which organization to refer to.\n\n* The world is said to be in a state of \"world war\" if ANY of the following become true within a three year period, starting on January 1st of a particular year: (1) at least five great powers are all engaged in a direct, confrontational (non-proxy) war, with at least one great power on the other side of the other great powers (2) at least ten million people across at least three continents have died in conflicts that are widely considered to be related to one another, according to the United Nations, or another reputable international body as determined by Metaculus admins (a single localized civil war or genocide will not count), (3) at least one nuclear weapon has non-accidentally been deployed and used in wartime by a great power, in the course of a conflict, against another great power.\n\n* World War 3 is the next world war to occur after World War 2.\n\nThis question resolves ambiguously in the case that World War 3 did not occur before 2060. It resolves positively if the governments of the United States and India are on the same side during that war, and negatively if they are on opposite sides. It also resolves ambiguously if one or both parties are not significant players in World War 3", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will the world be free from nuclear weapons at any point before 2075?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/) [closed]\n\n* [How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/)\n\n* [Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/)\n\n----\n\nAs of March 2022, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are \"roughly 12,700 nuclear warheads\" deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 2,000 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\n\n\n\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2075, there are no known nuclear warheads on Earth or within geosynchrous orbit of Earth for any length of time. Such an assesment should state that no assembled nuclear warheads exist, whether deployed or stockpiled (but it may allow for the existence of sufficient material or resources to quickly assemble such warheads). Metaculus may consider all credible sources to determine whether no nuclear warheads exist.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if there are fewer than 10 million biological humans alive on Earth, or if more than 500 nuclear warheads have been detonated in a 10-year period. (In other words, this question will exclude scenarios where there are no nuclear weapons left--because they were all detonated)", "prediction": "1.5%"} +{"title": "Is the abc conjecture true?", "desc": "[The abc conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture) is a conjecture in number theory which states that for a given \\( \\varepsilon > 0 \\), there are only finitely many positive integer solutions of the equation \\( a + b = c \\) with \\( a, b \\) coprime such that\n\n\\[ c > \\textrm{rad}(abc)^{1 + \\varepsilon} \\]\n\nIn 2012, [Shinichi Mochizuki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinichi_Mochizuki) claimed a proof of the conjecture, but his proof has failed to achieve widespread recognition among mathematicians as of 2022.", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" in the event of a publication in a major mathematics journal proving the abc conjecture, and \"No\" in the event of a similar publication disproving the conjecture.\n\nIf the correctness of the proof given in the publication takes time to be recognized by the mathematics community, the question will resolve when Metaculus admins judge that the proof has gained sufficient recognition.\n\nIf no such proof gains widespread recognition before January 1, 2300, the question will resolve ambiguously.", "prediction": "90%"} +{"title": "Will Mochizuki retract his proof of the abc conjecture before 2050?", "desc": "[The abc conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abc_conjecture) is a conjecture in number theory which states that for a given \\( \\varepsilon > 0 \\), there are only finitely many positive integer solutions of the equation \\( a + b = c \\) with \\( a, b \\) coprime such that\n\n\\[ c > \\textrm{rad}(abc)^{1 + \\varepsilon} \\]\n\nIn 2012, [Shinichi Mochizuki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinichi_Mochizuki) claimed a proof of the conjecture, but his proof has failed to achieve widespread recognition among mathematicians as of 2022.\n\nIn March 2021 his proof was published in the *Publications of the Research Institute for Mathematical Sciences* (RIMS), a journal of which Mochizuki was the chief editor (though he recused himself from reviewing the paper).", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if Mochizuki either formally retracts his paper from RIMS or otherwise makes a clear and explicit statement that he no longer believes his proof to be correct. If Mochizuki doesn't take any such action before January 1, 2050, the question will resolve as \"No\"", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will Brazil reach net zero deforestation before 2031?", "desc": "Brazil contains 58.7% of the Amazon rainforest's extent; in 2020, an estimated [3.1 million square km](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/) were located in Brazil. Brazil's national space agency INPE provides the [PRODES survey](http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes) on the amount of annual deforestation in [Amazônia Legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amaz%C3%B4nia_Legal), the nine Brazillian states which contain the Brazillian Amazon Forest. Deforestation in the Amazon fell from 27,700 km\\(^{2}\\) in 2004 to 4,500 km\\(^{2}\\), and has since risen under the [Jair Bolsonaro Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro).\n\nBrazil also contains the [Atlantic Forest](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/mata-atlantica/), 92% of which was [estimated to be within Brazil](awsassets.panda.org/downloads/documento_fvs_baja.pdf) in 2017. While an estimated 17% of the Amazon has been deforested since European contact, [92%](https://rainforests.mongabay.com/mata-atlantica/) of the Atlantic Forest has been deforested, from 1,300,000 km\\(^{2}\\) to 100,000 km\\(^{2}\\) in 2020.\n\nIn 2008, delegates from Brazil joined 66 other countries in pledging support for the World Wide Fund for Nature's goal to reach net zero deforestation by 2020. In April 2021, [Bolsonaro pledged](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/brazil-must-cut-deforestation-15-20-year-reach-2030-goal-says-vice-president-2021-04-16/) to US President Joe Biden to cut illegal deforestation and reach net zero deforestation by 2030.", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" If primary forest area in Brazil has a net increase in any year from 2020 to 2031. Estimates should include data in the Amazon Rainforest and the Atlantic Forest in total for the same year. Estimates may come from Brazil's [National Institute for Space Research](http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes) (INPE), or another credible source if INPE data is not available. This question will resolve according to data available by March 1, 2033", "prediction": "18%"} +{"title": "Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?", "desc": "By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events - **massive solar storms**, such as the [Carrington event](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2002JA009504) of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. According to [this study](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000734), the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst < −850 nT) occurring within the next decade is ∼12%. It has been suggested that a geomagnetic storm on the scale of the solar storm of 1859 today would cause billions or even trillions of dollars of damage to satellites, power grids and radio communications, and could cause electrical blackouts on a massive scale that might not be repaired for weeks, months, or even years. Such sudden electrical blackouts may threaten food production.", "resc": "This question will resolves as **Yes** if the [Disturbance Storm Time index](https://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir/index.html) reaches less than -850 nT (the Carrington event reached between -1600 and -1760 nT) before January 1, 2050.", "prediction": "37%"} +{"title": "Will the Federal Reserve ever adopt a policy regime that implements nominal GDP targeting or nominal wage targeting?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "56%"} +{"title": "Will a 8-year gross world product doubling complete before a 2-year doubling does?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/gwp-doubles-in-4-years-vs-1-year-by-2050/)\n* [Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/)\n\n----\n\nAs of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\n\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\n\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the gross world product of Earth doubles in a period of 8 years or less before any doubling in a period of 2 years or less, according to [the World Bank](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NYGDPMKTPCDWLD). This question will only consider estimates reported on an annual basis. In the case that a 2-year doubling and 8-year doubling are achieved in the same year, the question will resolve negatively.\n\nGross world product should be measured in US dollars, or another stable currency/measure of value.\n\nIf there is no doubling in 8 years or less before 2050, this question will resolve as \"Ambiguous\". If the World Bank no longer provides this data, or the estimate is unreliable or inaccurate, Metaculus Admins may select another credible source, or resolve ambiguously, at their discretion.", "prediction": "60%"} +{"title": "Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the world create the first Trillionaire?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/)\n\n----\n\nIn early April 2022, [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#437dcdab3d78) lists the wealthiest people in the world: Elon Musk ($280B), Jeff Bezos ($180B), Bernard Arnault & family ($170B), Bill Gates ($130B), Warren Buffett ($130B).\n\nElon Musk is an entrepreneur, investor, and business magnate. He is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; early-stage investor, CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla; founder of The Boring Company; and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. With an estimated net worth of around US$280 billion as of April 2022, Musk is the wealthiest person in the world.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Elon Musk has a net worth of 1 trillion nominal USD before any other person, according to [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#437dcdab3d78). If any other person reaches this milestone before Elon Musk (e.g., Jeff Bezos becomes the first trillionaire), the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no individual has a net worth greater than 1 trillion USD before January 1, 2075, or by the time of Musk's death, this question will resolve as **No**", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will Blake Masters be President of the United States before 2070?", "desc": "[Blake Masters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blake_Masters_(author)) is a Republican politician and a candidate for the United States Senate in Arizona. He has a close relationship with tech billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel), and wrote the book Zero to One based on notes he took from Thiel's class at Stanford, where Masters got both his BA and JD. Masters [resigned](https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1504166071632162816) from his posts running Thiel Capital and the Thiel Foundation to run in Arizona. Masters is staunchly opposed to critical race theory, and supports a stronger border and the reduction of illegal immigration. He is also tough on crime, and has [appeared on Tucker Carlson's show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyKjUiehzQA) to denounce the increase on crime rates, which he has blamed on Democratic Party politicians like Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. Masters is also a suspicious of large tech companies, much like Thiel, and views them as stifling innovation and as pushing a left-wing political ideology. Masters has also famously stated [\"you should be able to raise a family on one single income\"](https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1453754258218651648). While not alleging fraud on Election Day in 2020, Masters [released](https://theweek.com/talking-points/1006992/blake-masters-disgraceful-video) a video critical of the coverage of Hunter Biden's laptop and of voter registration policies.\n\nMasters has received [significant attention](https://jewishinsider.com/2022/03/blake-masters-wants-to-take-back-arizona/) and both [praise](https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/11/the-blake-masters-vision/) and [criticism](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/07/15/meet-peter-thiels-military-industrial-candidate/). In particular, some on the left have criticized Peter Thiel for his [opposition to democracy](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/06/peter-thiel.html) and his links with the neoreactionary thinker [Curtis Yarvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_Yarvin).", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if Blake Masters is the President of the United States before January 1, 2070, as reported by reliable media outlets", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?", "desc": "[Elon Reeve Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk), born June 28, 1971, is a serial entrepreneur and business executive. He is the founder, CEO, and Chief Engineer at SpaceX; early-stage investor, CEO, and Product Architect of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company, and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI. With an estimated net worth of around US$270 billion as of April 2022, Musk is the wealthiest person in the world according to both the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) and the [Forbes real-time billionaires list.](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#3ed6f4c03d78)\n\nIn 2022, [Musk made an unsolicited $43 billion offer to take social media site Twitter private](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-twitter-purchase-offer-43-billion-private-company/), citing concerns around free speech on the platform, which he argues [is essential to a functioning democracy.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1507259709224632344)\n\nMusk [characterises his political views as \"somewhat libertarian,\"](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/11/28/no-death-no-taxes) says he is [\"not a conservative... registered independent & politically moderate,\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1018265614295523328) and [does not clearly align with either the Democratic or Republican party platforms.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk#Politics)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **yes** if, prior to February 1, 2033, Elon Musk legally holds any of the following public offices for any period of time:\n\n- President of the United States\n- Vice President of the United States\n- Speaker of the House of Representatives\n- United States Senator\n- United States Representative\n- Governor of any US state or territor", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will Praxis Society have built a physical city with at least 1,000 full-time residents by 2040?", "desc": "Praxis Society [describes itself](https://www.praxissociety.com/content/introducing-praxis) as a membership-based intentional community centered around building a city-cryptostate. Praxis Society is building a \"city in the cloud\" (i.e., the creation of a unified online community) prior to creating a physical city--its Discord server presently has over 10,000 members. It recently [raised](https://www.praxissociety.com/content/praxis-raises-15mm-series-a-led-by-paradigm) a $15 million Series A round from various venture capital firms.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if by January 1, 2040, Praxis Society or its corporate successor has: (1) physically constructed a new city; (2) that city is recognized as a separate municipality and/or special jurisdiction under the laws of the country in which it is located OR constitutes its own separate jurisdiction not subject to any other sovereign state, and (3) has at least 1,000 full-time residents for a minimum period of one year. \n\nIf Praxis Society has failed to meet any of the three criteria identified above, this question resolves as **No**. If Praxis Society or its corporate successor is no longer operational or ceases to exist, this question resolves as **No**. If the satisfactory resolution of the above criteria, in accordance with the fine print, is ambiguous, the resolution of the question will be determined by Metaculus admins.", "prediction": "42%"} +{"title": "Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?", "desc": "[Obergefell v. Hodges, 576 U.S. 644 (2015)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges), is a landmark civil rights case in which the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled that the fundamental right to marry is guaranteed to same-sex couples by both the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. The 5–4 ruling requires all fifty states, the District of Columbia, and the Insular Areas to perform and recognize the marriages of same-sex couples on the same terms and conditions as the marriages of opposite-sex couples, with all the accompanying rights and responsibilities.\n\nIn the years following the ruling in *Obergefell*, during the Trump administration, several justices departed the Court and were replaced by justices widely considered to be conservative, altering the balance of the Court. [Some observers now consider the Court to be 'aggressively conservative'](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/aggressively-conservative-supreme-court-plunges-into-us-culture-wars-2022-01-25/), and in the midst of a ['conservative revolution'](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-roberts-court-vs-the-trump-court/). \n\n[Some now believe](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/some-fear-ripple-effect-on-civil-rights-cases-if-roe-is-overturned) that the SCOTUS may eventually overturn various precedentially important rulings, including [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade), [Lawrence v. Texas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_v._Texas), and Obergefell v. Hodges.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 1, 2030, the Supreme Court issues a ruling that results in Obergefell v. Hodges being overturned, in the sense that the Court determines that there is not a constitutionally protected right to marry that is guaranteed to same-sex couples in the United States, and that states, insular areas, the District of Columbia, and/or the federal government may therefore legislate not to permit the practice of same-sex marriage, or to recognize the marriages of same-sex couples", "prediction": "11%"} +{"title": "Will Boris Johnson fail to be elected in the next UK General Election?", "desc": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2019. He was Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs from 2016 to 2018 and Mayor of London from 2008 to 2016. Johnson has been Member of Parliament (MP) for [Uxbridge and South Ruislip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)) since 2015. \n\nAs of April 2022, Johnson has for some time been mired in scandal over various alleged wrongdoings, [including breaking coronavirus restrictions](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/12/europe/boris-johnson-partygate-scandal-analysis-gbr-uk-intl/index.html), and [polling finds that there is strong public support for his resignation.](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/majority-britons-say-boris-johnson-should-resign-aftermath-partygate-fines)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Boris Johnson is not elected to represent any UK parliamentary constituency in the next general election to be held after Thursday, December 12, 2019, conditional on Johnson appearing on the ballot in any constituency. If Johnson does not contest the election, or if Johnson is not alive or is incapacitated at the time the results of the election are announced, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. \n\nThis question will close 24 hours prior to the opening of polls of the next UK general election", "prediction": "86%"} +{"title": "Will China's CO2 emissions peak before 2030?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will China reach net zero carbon emissions?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10712/date-of-chinese-carbon-neutrality/)\n\n----\n\nChina's [CO2 emissions](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?time=1988..latest&facet=none&country=CHN~OWID_WRL&Gas=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Consumption-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country) in 2019 were 9.44 billion tons, higher than any other nation, including the US (5.63 billion tons) and the EU (3.97 billion tons). However, on a per capita basis, China's emissions (6.59 tons per person) are only moderately higher than the world average (4.47 tons per person), and significantly less than the US (17.10 tons per person).\n\nAhead of the [2021 UN Climate Change Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference), China [committed](https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/China%20First/China%E2%80%99s%20Achievements,%20New%20Goals%20and%20New%20Measures%20for%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contributions.pdf) to reach peak CO2 emissions before 2030, and carbon neutrality before 2060. [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/) called these policies \"Insufficient\", consistent with a world of 3C of warming by 2100, and when considered as a \"fair share target\", called them \"highly insufficient\".", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if China's annual CO2 emissions in the years 2030 to 2039 (inclusive) are lower than the maximum emissions of any year from 2020-2029, according to [the Global Carbon Project](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?time=1930..latest&facet=none&country=CHN~OWID_WRL&Gas=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Consumption-based&Fuel=Total&Count=Per+country). In other words, if any year from 2030 to 2039 has higher annual CO2 emissions than the maximum year from 2020 to 2029, this question will resolve as \"No\".\n\nThis question will concern CO2 only (excluding other greenhouse gases measured as [CO2-equivalents](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential)), and will measure China's consumption-based emissions (adding emissions produced by imported goods, and removing emissions from exports). For example, this figure for 2019 was 9.44 billion tons.\n\nIf the Global Carbon Project does not provide this data continuously through 2020 to 2039, an alternative credible source may be selcted by Metaculus Admins, or they may resolve ambiguously at their discretion", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "By 2050, will it be possible to purchase a zero-emissions flight from New York to London for less than half US weekly household income?", "desc": "In October 2021, at the [77th IATA Annual General Meeting in Boston](http://web.archive.org/web/20220216200932/https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/flynetzero/), a resolution was passed by IATA member airlines committing them to achieving net-zero carbon emissions from their operations by 2050.\n\nExploratory work is ongoing to achieve flight without burning fossil fuel. It may be that net-zero flight is achieved by offsetting emissions. But it could also be that new technology allows for emissions-free flight, specifically, carrying passengers through the air without emitting any greenhouse gases. To disrupt fossil fuel flights this would have to be relatively affordable.\n\nA useful benchmark for \"affordable\" is in relation to the median household income. Median US household income in 2021 [was around $67,000](http://web.archive.org/web/20220121063506/https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html), or $1280/week. At the time of writing this question, a one-way flight from New York to London could be purchased for around $350, or roughly 1/4 of one week's median household income. Allowing that technology might not quite become competitive with that level, this question asks whether zero-emissions flight could be achieved for less than 1/2 of one week's median household income in 2050. 1/2 of one week's median household income in 2021 is about $642.", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if an emissions-free one-way flight from New York to London could be purchased for less than half of one week's US median household income in 2050.", "prediction": "40%"} +{"title": "Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?", "desc": "> In 2021, the Parliament of Hungary promulgated the so-called Hungarian anti-LGBT law, which aims to ban all content for children that may \"promote homosexuality\" and which makes a relationship between LGBT and pedophilia. This received a heavy negative response from other EU countries, with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte suggesting Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán to leave the EU.\n\n> Hungary is legally allowed to leave the EU according to Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. Therefore, the country could leave the union after the organization of a referendum, for which it would be necessary to change the Constitution of Hungary with the support of two-thirds of the Hungarian parliament. However, withdrawal from the EU is not popular among the Hungarian public. In 2020, 85% of polled Hungarians supported the membership of the country in the union.\n\n[Source: Wikipedia article on the Hungarian withdrawal from the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_withdrawal_from_the_European_Union).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, Hungary triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union. It also will resolve positively if other EU members expel Hungary through some other mechanism (currently there is no mechanism in the EU for expelling a member state).", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2030?", "desc": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n- [Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/member-exits-eurozone-by-2025/)\n- [Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/)\n- [Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/)\n- [When will Croatia adopt the euro?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/)", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, any full Member State of the Eurozone (as of February 10, 2019) ceases to use the Euro as its official currency. The list of Eurozone member states recognized for this question is: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain.\n\nNote that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\n\nThis question will resolve according to a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2030, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will Georgia control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028?", "desc": "[South Ossetia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia) and [Abkhazia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abkhazia) are two regions on the border of Russia and Georgia. The two regions were under Georgian control after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, though separatist movements in both regions challenged Georgian authority. These tensions reached a climax in the 12-day [Russo-Georgian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War), after which Russia formally recognized both states as independent nations. Georgia and the vast majority of UN nations regard both states to be part of Georgia, though Georgia does not have control over the regions.\n\nIn January 2021, the [European Court of Human Rights determined](https://apnews.com/article/europe-georgia-salome-zurabishvili-moscow-russia-854c37a67adc9cda0920a00e931efc09) that Russia has held \"effective control\" of the two regions since August 2008, and is thus responsible for acts of torture and human rights abuses which since occurred there. The court estimated that in 2020, Russia had as many as 1 soldier per 8 residents in South Ossetia.\n\nOn March 30, 2022, South Ossetian President Anatoliy Bibilov proposed a referendum on formally joining the Russian Federation, [stating](https://eurasianet.org/south-ossetia-says-it-will-seek-to-join-russia) \"Unification with Russia is our strategic goal, our path, the hope of our people, and we will move on this path\". Abkhazian Parliamentary Speaker Valery Kvarchia, in response to questions on whether Abkhazia would follow this path, [stated](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/georgia-breakaway-region-abkhazia-south-ossetia-join-russia-1549709), \"Russia is our strategic partner, a dear and close state, but we in the republic (of Abkhazia) have no intention of joining the Russian Federation\"", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time between April 1, 2022 and January 1, 2028, Georgia controls more than half (by area) of South Ossetia and more than half of Abkhazia (according to their de facto borders on January 1, 2022). Control of these regions must be simultaneous, and be sustained for at least 30 consecutive days.\n\nThe government of Georgia must itself not be de facto controlled by Russia during this period in order to resolve the question as \"**Yes**\".\n\nTo determine resolution, Metaculus Admins will consider information from all credible sources, including media reports and statements by government intelligence agencies", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will Moldova control Transnistria before 2028?", "desc": "The [Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) (PMR, also known as Transnistria) is an unrecognized state on the border of Moldova and Ukraine. All UN nations, including Russia, formally consider Transnistrian territory to be part of Moldova. Russia does maintain a [consulate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Transnistria_relations) in Transnistria, as well as an [ongoing military presence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_presence_in_Transnistria). Moldova has repeatedly asked for the removal of Russian troops, including as recently as [September 2021](https://romania.europalibera.org/a/maia-sandu-republica-moldova-onu/31473107.html).", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time between March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2028, Moldova controls more than half of the territory of Transnistria (according to de facto borders on January 1, 2022). Control must be sustained for at least 30 days. \n\nTo determine resolution, Metaculus Admins will consider information from all credible sources, including media reports and statements by government intelligence agencies.\n\nPeriods in which Transnistria is under Moldovan control, but the de facto government of Moldova is reported to be Russian-aligned by multiple such credible sources, will not trigger \"Yes\" resolution", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will Russia lose control of the Kuril Islands before 2028?", "desc": "The [Kuril Islands Dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute) is a territorial conflict between Japan and Russia which extends back to 1855. Following World War II, Peace negotiations between Russia and Japan have been attempted but never formally accepted, in part due to their competing claims over the Kuril Islands.\n\nAlthough attempts at a peace agreement have been pursued by both parties through the 2010s, the [2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) escalated animosity between Japan and Russia. In [March 2022](https://www.portnews.com.au/story/7650538/japan-renews-island-dispute-with-russia/) Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi re-affirmed the Japanese claim to the Kuril Islands. Later in March, Russian armed forces [performed military drills](https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/03/c0868f95954a-russia-starts-military-drill-on-disputed-islands-off-japan.html) with 3,000 personnel in the Kuril Islands area.", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time April 1, 2022 and January 1, 2028, Russia or Russia-aligned governments control fewer than half of the [Kuril Islands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands). This may occur if the majority of the Kuriles are under Japanese control, if they are independent states, if they are under control of any non-Russian-aligned government, or if some combination of these scenarios obtains for the majority of the islands. Whoever controls the islands, their control must be sustained for at least 30 days. \n\nFor the purposes of this question, the Kuril Islands shall consist of\n\n* [Iturup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iturup)\n\n* [Kunashir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunashir)\n\n* [Shikotan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shikotan)\n\n* [the Habomai Islands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habomai_Islands)\n\nThe question will resolve as \"**yes**\" if Russia and Russia-aligned governments control fewer than 2 of the above 4 islands (the Habomai Islands will be considered as a single entity).\n\nTo determine resolution, Metaculus Admins will consider information from all credible sources, including media reports and statements by government intelligence agencies", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will the Solomon Islands host a Chinese military base before 2032?", "desc": "In 2022, the Chinese Government [signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands](https://time.com/6168173/solomon-islands-china-security-pact/).\n\nCertain governments, most especially Australia, but also the United States, have concerns that this pact will lead to [a full Chinese military base in the region](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/us-wont-rule-out-military-action-if-china-establishes-base-in-solomon-islands).\n\n>One of the most senior US officials in the Pacific has refused to rule out military action against Solomon Islands if it were to allow China to establish a military base there, saying that the security deal between the countries presented “potential regional security implications” for the US and other allies.\n\n>Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was part of a high-level US delegation to the Pacific country last week.\n\nThe fact that one of China's state-owned organizations had previously tried to [lease the entire Island of Tulagi](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/25/solomons-government-vetoes-chinese-attempt-to-lease-an-island), which hosts a deep-water harbor, also implies the possibility of Chinese interests in that direction.\n\nOn the other hand, the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands has [has promised the Australian Government that such a base will never be situated there](https://apnews.com/article/china-australia-canberra-solomon-islands-government-and-politics-0ac755c18daa8e6fb81579d2216dfc63).\n\n>Solomons Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare made his first visit to the Australian capital Canberra since his counterpart Anthony Albanese's center-left Labor Party came to power at elections in May.\n\n>“Prime minister, I reiterate again that Solomon Islands will never be used for foreign military installations or institutions of foreign countries, because this will not be in the interest of Solomon Islands and its people,” Sogavare told Albanese in front of reporters before their meeting began in Parliament House.", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2032 any of the following three conditions below occur:\n\n1) The governments of China or the Solomon Islands publicly announce that a Chinese military base has been agreed upon and will begin construction before 2032.\n\n2) At least one [credible media source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reports that the Solomon Islands host over 1000 Chinese soldiers.\n\n3) At least three [credible media sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) describe China's military presence on the Solomon Islands as a military base", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2040?", "desc": "The [Union State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State) is a supranational organization, composed of Russia and Belarus since its creation in 1999. It is formally open to membership applications from other countries. Union State members share freedom of migration to work or live in respective countries, have an integrated military, and have policies to promote economic integration and some coordinated tax policies. From 2004 to 2008, there were some negotiations to adopt a common currency, which did not come to pass.\n\nDavid R. Cameron, writing for the [Yale MacMillan Center](https://macmillan.yale.edu/news/russia-belarus-develop-their-union-state-hold-huge-military-exercise-russia-goes-polls), suggests the Union State is an attempt to put the USSR back together.\n\nDuring the buildup to the [2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko [predicted in an interview](https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/272272379/lukashenko-predicts-when-ukraine-could-join-union-state-with-russia) that Ukraine would eventually join the Union State, saying \"If you say 15 years, I'm sure that Ukraine will be there if we don't make any mistakes\". Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky [said in 2021](https://rubryka.com/2021/05/31/zelenskyj-zayavyv-shho-spravzhnya-soyuzna-derzhava-rosiyi-ta-bilorusi-ye-zagrozoyu-dlya-ukrayiny/) that a \"true Union State\" was a real danger to Ukraine.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the government of Ukraine formally joins the Union State of Russia and Belarus, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2040. Membership in the Union State must be sustained for at least 365 days. Official statements by Ukraine and Union State officials will be used for resolution.", "prediction": "4%"} +{"title": "Will Russia's total territory decrease by at least 20% before 2028?", "desc": "On April 7, 2022, Juraj Mesík of the [Slovak Foreign Policy Association](https://www.sfpa.sk/en/) [predicted](https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/experts/2022/04/7/7137272/) that Russia will collapse in the next 3 to 5 years (machine translation below):\n\n>Only three forces hold the Russian Empire together: the ideology of the superpower, the security apparatus (Cheka - NKVD - KGB - FSB) and oil and gas revenues. The latter makes it possible to finance militarism, the repressive apparatus and to corrupt politicians in Europe and around the world.\n\n>All three of these forces will weaken and collapse sharply in the coming months and years as a result of Russia's prolonged military defeat in Ukraine, Western sanctions and the rapid development of electric mobility.\n\n>Russia's military and repressive forces are bleeding in Ukraine, Russia's great chauvinism will be deadly, and a rapid drop in oil and gas sales combined with further sanctions will destroy the Kremlin economically and prevent it from further bribing political elites inside Russia and abroad.\n\n>[...] the attack on Ukraine radically accelerated the development of events - so **the collapse of Russia becomes a matter of the next 3-5 years.**\n\nMesík predicted as a result of this collapse that Russia would lose control over many regions in current territorial disputes, such as Ukraine's Crimean peninsula or the breakaway states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Mesík further speculated about a potential fragmentation of Russia's far east.", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time between March 1, 2022 to January 1, 2028, the Russian Federation loses de facto control of at least 20% of its territory held on January 1, 2022. This period of lost control must persist for at least 30 consecutive days.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, Russia will be considered to have control of the Crimean Peninsula, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and the Kuril Islands, included with their internationally recognized territory as of January 1, 2022", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison before June 30, 2028?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/) *[closed]*\n\n----\n\nFormer US President [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_trump) has been involved in a large number of [lawsuits and legal investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_affairs_of_Donald_Trump), either personally or in connection to his businesses. As President, Trump was investigated by the US Department of Justice in the [Mueller Investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Counsel_investigation_(2017%E2%80%932019)). Trump was impeached (but not convicted) by US congress twice, [in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump) and later [in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_impeachment_of_Donald_Trump). Trump's involvement in the January 6 2021 [attack on the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_States_Capitol_attack) is the subject of [an investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Select_Committee_on_the_January_6_Attack) in the US House which is ongoing as of April 2022.\n\nTrump has publicly expressed his intention of running for president in 2024 multiple times, [saying in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"You had a president that always put America first [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before.\"", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, Donald J. Trump is held in custody in a US jail or prison. Trump must be in custody for a period of 30 days or longer; this period must begin before January 1, 2030 to qualify for a positive resolution", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will over half of US states forbid affirmative action before 2035?", "desc": "[Affirmative Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirmative_action) describes policies in a variety of contexts where individuals from certain groups or backgrounds are given preferential weight or treatment, such as in employment applications or school admissions. The term comes from US President John F. Kennedy, writing an [Executive Order in 1961](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-10925-establishing-the-presidents-committee-equal-employment-opportunity): \"The contractor will not discriminate against any employee or applicant for employment because of race, creed, color, or national origin. The contractor will take **affirmative action** to ensure that applicants are employed, and that employees are treated during employment, without regard to their race, creed, color, or national origin.\" Proponents of affirmative action see such policies as means to address previous discrimination or harms, or as a way to remove bias in a selection process.\n\nThe topic is controversial in the United States, and polling shows conflicting beliefs: [Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/352832/americans-confidence-racial-fairness-waning.aspx) found that 47% of Americans supported affirmative action policies for racial minorities in 2001, with that share growing to 62% in 2021, while [Pew polling](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/04/26/u-s-public-continues-to-view-grades-test-scores-as-top-factors-in-college-admissions/) in 2022 found 74% of respondents thought that race should not be a factor in the college admission process.\n\nAs of April 2022, [9 US states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirmative_action_in_the_United_States) ban affirmative action.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, over half of US states generally ban discrimination and giving preferential treatment to groups or individuals on the basis of race, in decisions on public employment. This question may also resolve as **Yes** if such a ban is effective on the federal level, or if affirmative action is ruled unconstitutional by the US Supreme Court.", "prediction": "44%"} +{"title": "Will Norway join the EU before 2035?", "desc": "Norway is a member of the [European Economic Area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Economic_Area), but not a member of the EU. Norway held two referrendums on whether to join the EU, in [1972](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Norwegian_European_Communities_membership_referendum) and in [1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Norwegian_European_Union_membership_referendum), which were rejected by 53.5% and 52.2% of the vote, respectively.\n\nFollowing the war in Ukraine, the Conservative Party (Høyre) has [renewed their interest](https://www.aftenposten.no/norge/politikk/i/47AmOE/landsmoetet-vedtok-eu-debatten-erna-solberg-ikke-ville-ha) in an EU membership referendum, saying \"Norwegian EU membership has now become more important than ever\". Green Party (Miljøpartiet De Grønne) leader Rasmus Hansson [is also in favor](https://www.nrk.no/norge/mdg-topper-vil-ha-norge-med-i-eu-_-ber-partiet-om-ja-til-folkeavstemning-1.15945601), saying the Green Party \"will be a driving force for this debate to start in Norwegian society\".\n\n[An April 2022 poll](https://www.oa.no/maling-en-av-fem-er-usikker-pa-norsk-eu-medlemskap/s/5-35-1512579) by Norstat for Vårt Land asked respondents \"do you want Norway to become a member of the EU?\"; 53% answered \"no\", 26% answered \"yes\", and 21% were unsure. A March 2022 poll by Klassekampen og Nationen also found 54% in opposition, with 34% in favor of EU membership.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** If Norway is formally admitted to the European Union at any time between May 1, 2022 to Jaunary 1, 2035. Official statements by the EU will be required for resolution. Norway must officially begin its membership during this period; an announcement or promise of future membership will not suffice", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will Lawrence v. Texas be overturned by 2030?", "desc": "[Lawrence v. Texas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_v._Texas) was a 2003 US Supreme Court case, in which the court ruled 6-3 that state \"sodomy\" laws making sexual relations between consenting, adult gay couples illegal violated 14th Amendment rights to liberty and privacy.", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 1, 2030, the Supreme Court issues a ruling that results in Lawrence v. Texas being overturned, in the sense that the Court determines that there is not a constitutionally protected right to consensual sex that is guaranteed to adult same-sex couples in the United States, and that states, insular areas, the District of Columbia, and/or the federal government may therefore legislate not to permit the practice", "prediction": "17%"} +{"title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be one of the 100 wealthiest people in the world in 2030?", "desc": "[Sam Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried), born March 6, 1992, also known by his initials SBF, is an American entrepreneur, investor, and philanthropist. He is the founder and CEO of [FTX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTX_(company)), a cryptocurrency exchange. He also manages assets through Alameda Research, a quantitative cryptocurrency trading firm he founded in October 2017.\n\nBankman-Fried is a supporter of effective altruism and pursues earning to give as an altruistic career. He is a member of Giving What We Can and plans to donate the great majority of his wealth to effective charities over the course of his life.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2030, Sam Bankman-Fried is ranked at least the 100th-wealthiest person in the world by *either* the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#453f84e23d78), or the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index.](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)\n\nIf Forbes or Bloomberg do not report any data for January 1, 2030, another credible source may be used, or the question may resolve ambiguously at the discretion of Metaculus Admins", "prediction": "0.1%"} +{"title": "Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?", "desc": "It's reasonable to expect that Putin will cease to be the president of Russia at some point in the future (e.g. by succumbing to the diseases of aging). \n\nThe next leader could have a quite different attitude towards the invasion of Ukraine.\n\nThere are several historical examples of such changes in Russia:\n\n- After the regime change in 1917, the new Russian leaders have heavily criticized the wars waged by Alexander II, calling them \"imperialistic\".\n\n- After Mikhail Gorbachev became the leader of the USSR, he withdrew the soviet forces from Afghanistan.\n\nSome high-ranked Russian siloviki have already voiced their opposition against the Russian invasion of Ukraine (for example, retired Col. Gen. [Leonid Ivashov](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-crisis-putin-military-opposition.html)).\n\nOn the other hand, [Oleksiy Arestovych](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksiy_Arestovych), a Ukrainian presidential adviser, compares the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the long-lasting Arab–Israeli conflict, and predicts that it could last for decades ([source](https://web.archive.org/web/20220522105853/https://uarefugees.news/news/russias-war-against-ukraine-may-last-until-2035-arestovich-believes/)).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing *any* of these:\n\n1. Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime).\n2. Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority (or all) of the Ukrainian territories occupied in 2022+ that are still under Russian control, and do it without attempting to capture new territories.\n3. Ordering a return of the territories to Ukraine.\n4. Returning the de facto control of Crimea, LNR, and/or DNR to Ukraine.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the next Russian leader does none of the above by January 1, 2030.\n\nIf Vladimir Putin remains the de facto leader of Russia from February 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nFor the purpose of this question, we are only interested in the next Russian leader, not Putin. If Putin himself did any of the aforementioned points, we ignore it, as long as the question still can be resolved by the next leader in the future (e.g by condemning the invasion).\n\nTo account for possible short-lived interim governments, we define *the next* as any Russian leader inaugurated within 3 years after the end of the Putin's de facto rule. See also the \"fine print\" button below.", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will inter-racial marriage be banned in any US State by 2030?", "desc": "On May 2, 2022 [POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473) published a leaked draft of a Supreme Court Decision which would overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. Justice Alito wrote \"The inescapable conclusion is that a right to abortion is not deeply rooted in the Nation's history and traditions.\" Ciara Torres-Spelliscy, law professor at Stetson University, [said](https://www.vox.com/23055107/supreme-court-abortion-roe-wade-constitution) of Alito's leaked opinion: \"After this [opinion], Loving, Windsor, and Obergefell are all on constitutionally thin ice.\" [Loving v. Virginia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loving_v._Virginia) is a landmark 1967 SCOTUS case which found that laws banning inter-racial marriage were unconstitutional.\n\nMichelle Deal-Zimmerman, writing for the [Baltimore Sun](https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/columnists/bs-ed-mdz-interracial-marriage-scotus-20220510-4lve5t5tvbfyvjlt2kfryum2v4-story.html) in May 2022, wrote \"If, OK, *when* the U.S. Supreme Court gets around to banning interracial marriage, my husband and I wonder what will happen. [...] I don't wish to sound alarmist, but a lot of things we have taken for granted during the last half-century appear to be crumbling before our eyes.\"\n\nDavid Bernstein, Law Professor writing for [reason.com](https://reason.com/volokh/2022/05/11/no-the-supreme-court-is-not-going-to-reconsider-the-constitutionality-of-bans-on-interracial-marriage/) said in May 2022, \"No, the Supreme Court is Not Going to Reconsider the Constitutionality of Bans on Interracial Marriage [...] overruling Loving would be politically unthinkable.\"", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, inter-racial marriages are either not granted or not recognized on equal footing with same-race marriages by any one or more US States, or by the US federal government.\n\n\"Equal footing\" here means that interracial marriages are performed and recognized on the same terms and conditions as the marriages of same-race couples, with married interracial couples being afforded all the accompanying rights and responsibilities married same-race couples are granted, or recognized as having.\n\nThis question may resolve as **Yes** if [Loving v. Virginia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loving_v._Virginia) is overturned, however a US State would then need to enforce a ban on inter-racial marriages to resolve the question as **Yes**. This may also occur if any state enforces such a ban, and the ban is not challenged by courts.\n\nAny ban on inter-racial marriage must be enforced for at least one couple to resolve the question as **Yes**; a ban which is \"on the books\" but unenforced is insufficient to resolve the question", "prediction": "0.1%"} +{"title": "Will Jeff Bezos hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?", "desc": "[Jeffrey Preston Bezos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos), born January 12, 1964 in Albuquerque, New Mexico, is an American entrepreneur, media proprietor, investor, computer engineer, and commercial astronaut. He is the founder, executive chairman and former president and CEO of Amazon. With a net worth of around US$140 billion as of May 2022, Bezos is the second-wealthiest person in the world and was the wealthiest from 2017 to 2021 according to both Bloomberg's Billionaires Index and Forbes.\n\nIn 2022, [Bezos has criticised the Biden Administration for its handling of inflation](https://www.ft.com/content/8ef4934e-2072-4534-bce6-824fb0da8628). \n\nBezos' political affiliation is [not definitively known](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/08/07/the-politics-of-jeff-bezos/); however, he has donated to both Democratic and Republican politicians (though has donated mostly to Democrats), and [has been characterized as 'libertarian' by Amazon investor Nick Hanauer](https://marketrealist.com/p/jeff-bezos-political-party/). He has also [donated to non-partisan political organizations.](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazons-jeff-bezos-ranks-no-1-among-sp-500-ceos-in-political-spending-2018-10-18)", "resc": "This question resolves positively if prior to February 1 2033, Jeff Bezos legally holds any of the following public offices for any period of time:\n\n- President of the United States\n- Vice President of the United States\n- Speaker of the House of Representatives\n- United States Senator\n- United States Representative\n- Governor of any U.S. state or territor", "prediction": "4%"} +{"title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before 2026?", "desc": "60% of India's military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It's normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 202", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will the United States place restrictions on compute capacity before 2050?", "desc": "Under current law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware. But it is possible to envision scenarios where governments may place restrictions on such resources for public safety or other purposes. \n\nA particular area which might cause restrictions to come into place is artificial intelligence. In recent years, AI capabilities have grown rapidly and forecasters believe this trend is set to continue with increasingly capable AI appearing in the next years and decades. Concerns have been raised that such increasingly powerful technology will pose various safety problems up to and including existential risks to humanity.\n\nIf decision-makers come to believe that increasing AI capabilities pose grave risks then it is possible that governmental entitites will seek to address the matter with restrictions and regulations. Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way to address potential risk may be to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors. Various practical difficulties would encounter any such regulatory schemes but they might nevertheless be considered if alternative measures to ensure safety do not appear promising.\n\nOther areas that might lead to legal restrictions on computational resources include cryptography and cryptocurrency. Concerns with energy usage for environmental or economic reasons could conceivably also contribute to restrictions on computational resources.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** If, between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2050, any legal limits on the amount of computer hardware or compute capacity available to individual actors, projects, companies or other entities are put into place anywhere in the United States (by a federal, state, or local government).", "prediction": "34%"} +{"title": "Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?", "desc": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure the majority of Electoral College votes, following the process outlined in the [Twelfth Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution) to the US Constitution.\n\nThe 2028 United States Presidential Election is set to be held on November 7, 2028.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a candidate from the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) Party receives the most votes in the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)) in the 2028 US Presidential Election. It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the votes, or when Congress selects the President in the case a candidate does not receive a majority.", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will Josh Frydenberg re-enter Australian parliament before the next general election?", "desc": "Former Treasurer of Australia [Josh Frydenberg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Frydenberg) lost the previously safe Liberal seat of Kooyong to an independent challenger, Monique Ryan, at the May 2022 Australian election. Frydenberg was feted as a potential future leader of the Liberal Party -- a proposal made impossible by his defeat. \n\nEducation Minister Alan Tudge held his seat of Aston, which is near Kooyong in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, [albeit with a 7% swing against him.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/asto) Tudge's career prospects are unclear following [allegations from his former staffer Rachelle Miller](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/04/alan-tudge-to-remain-on-backbench-after-report-into-allegations-by-former-staffer-released). \n\nOne proposal is that Tudge should resign his seat, triggering a by-election that Frydenberg could potentially win - and thereby re-enter parliament and even take the Liberal leadership. Before the election Laura Jayes cited an unnamed Liberal source claiming that Frydenberg was sounding out the possibility -- [which Frydenberg rejected.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuDndq_3OaM) Bernard Keane in Crikey has since [recommended this as a step forward for the Coalition](https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/05/23/alan-tudge-resign-josh-frydenberg-aston/).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Josh Frydenberg becomes a member of the Australian House of Representatives or the Senate at any time between June 1, 2022 and before the next general election is called (expected in 2025, though it could come earlier). If this does not occur for any reason (such as no by-elections being held, Frydenberg not holding a campaign, or Frydenberg losing election), this question will resolve as **No**", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "61%"} +{"title": "Will Harvard disaggregate statistics on Black enrollment by recent immigration status or slave ancestry before 2030?", "desc": "The late 2010's saw the emergence of a new movement [called ADOS](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/13/reader-center/slavery-descendants-ados.html), or American Descendants of Slaves in the United States. [African-Americans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Americans) have lower average income and educational attainment than the American population at large, as well a higher crime rates. However, immigrants from the [Caribbean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Indian_Americans#Income) and especially from [Africa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_immigration_to_the_United_States#Educational_attainment) have higher levels of educational attainment and income and lower crime rates compared to other Black Americans, with African immigrants being one of the most educated demographics in the United States. \n\nSince end of Jim Crow and the passage of the Civil Rights Act the mid-20th century, the United States has had a system of [affirmative action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirmative_action_in_the_United_States) for Black Americans, including in elite education. Recently, some African-Americans have expressed concern that many beneficiaries of these were not descendants of slaves. As early as 2007, the Guardian [reported](https://www.theguardian.com/education/2007/may/29/internationaleducationnews.highereducation) that Black Americans of immigrant, chiefly Caribbean and African ancestry, were overrepresented at elite universities compared to other Black Americans. Also in the mid-2000s, [two Harvard professors](https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2007-03-20-0703200125-story.html) including African American Studies Professor Henry Louis Gates Junior claimed that 1/2-2/3 of Black [Harvard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) students were of immigrant background and/or mixed race. Many African-American Harvard students identify themselves as [GAA](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/10/15/gaasa-scrut/), or Generational African-American, to distinguish themselves from people of more recent immigrant ancestry. Gates is quoted as saying “I don't have the statistics and the University doesn't release them, but a large percent of the Black students in the College are descendants of recent Africans as opposed to being descended from African-Americans who were enslaved in North America.\"\n\nAfrican immigrants have [higher fertility](https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1454857509542535168) than the GAA/ADOS population and African immigrants have [continued to move to the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_immigration_to_the_United_States). Therefore, black immigrants account for an [ever-growing](https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2015/04/09/a-rising-share-of-the-u-s-black-population-is-foreign-born/) share of the Black American population. America's only black president to date, [Barack Obama](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama), was born to a [Kenyan father](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_Sr.) and a [White mother](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Dunham), and America's only black Vice President to date, [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris), was born to a [Jamaican father](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_J._Harris) and an [Indian mother](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shyamala_Gopalan).\n\nRecently, Harvard's policies of racial preferences and affirmative action have received scrutiny, with the US Supreme Court recently [ruling](https://www.harvard.edu/admissionscase/2023/06/29/supreme-court-decision/) that Harvard's admissions system \"does not comply with the principles of the equal protection clause embodied in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act. Furthermore, there has been a recent push for [reparations for slavery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reparations_for_slavery_in_the_United_States#2020) in the United States, which would necessitate disaggregation of descendants of people enslaved in the United States from other Black Americans.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, by 2030-01-01, Harvard University releases official data on the fraction of its undergraduate student body who are descendants of people enslaved in the United States or in the Western Hemisphere more broadly. Official statistics on the fraction of the student body whose families originate from Africa, or from Africa or the Caribbean, will also suffice for positive resolution", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will \"slaughterbots\" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?", "desc": "\"Slaughterbots\" is a term used to describe drones that use artificial intelligence and facial recognition to target people with lethal force.\n\nThe term was brought into the popular lexicon by an [arms-control advocacy video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU) created in 2017 by the Future of Life Institute (FLI) and Stuart Russell, who is a professor of computer science at UC Berkeley.\n\nWhile defense analyst Paul Scharre criticized the video as fear mongering [\"science fiction,\"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-shouldnt-fear-slaughterbots) the team behind the campaign continue to argue that [\"autonomous weapons are potentially scalable weapons of mass destruction (WMDs); essentially unlimited numbers can be launched by a small number of people. \"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-should-fear-slaughterbots-a-response)\n\nMax Tegmark, a professor at MIT and president of FLI, also warned that these weapons could be used by cartels and political dissents to carry out [targeted assassinations.](https://thenextweb.com/news/slaughterbots-are-a-step-away-from-your-neighborhood-and-we-need-a-ban)\n\n[In 2021 a resolution to ban autonomous lethal weapons failed to pass at the United Nations.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/un-talks-to-ban-slaughterbots-collapsed-heres-why-that-matters.html)", "resc": "This question resolves positively if a credible media outlet reports at least 50 civilians have been killed by autonomous drones before January 1st 2035. The media coverage must conclude that the drones were not under complete human control during the attack(s).", "prediction": "72%"} +{"title": "Will the US federal government pass legislation by 2040 to provide universal healthcare for American citizens?", "desc": "Over [30 countries](https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/hcra/univ_hlth_care.htm) have [universal healthcare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_health_care) in which all residents of a particular nation are assured access to medical treatment by their government. \n\nHealthcare in the United States is currently a combination of private, nonprofit, and government providers, resulting in a system in which on a per capita basis, [the US spends much more on healthcare than other developed countries](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2019/us-health-care-spending-highest-among-developed-countries).\n\nWhile President Joe Biden currently does not support [universal healthcare](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/biden-says-coronavirus-hasnt-changed-his-mind-on-single-payer.html), some progressive politicians such as Bernie Sanders have endorsed [single-payer coverage](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) and recent polling data has shown that [a majority of Americans say the federal government has a responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/29/increasing-share-of-americans-favor-a-single-government-program-to-provide-health-care-coverage/).", "resc": "The question will resolve positively if the US federal government passes legislation that creates a universal public healthcare system that provides medical coverage for every US citizen in the territorial United States before January 1 2040.", "prediction": "38%"} +{"title": "If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?", "desc": "During Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin's Regular Press Conference in China on May 23, 2022, Agence France-Presse [asked](https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202205/t20220523_10691505.html),\n\n> President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing invaded or forcibly tried to take control of Taiwan. [...] how will this affect China-US ties going forward?\n\nWang Wenbin replied,\n\n> China expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the remarks by the US side. [...] We urge the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations in the three China-US joint communiqués, honor its important commitment of not supporting “Taiwan independence”, speak and act with prudence on the Taiwan question, and avoid sending any wrong signal to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, lest it should seriously undermine peace across the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations. China will take firm actions to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests. We mean what we say.", "resc": "This question is conditioned on China launching an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US responding militarily to defend Taiwan against an invasion. In other words, this question will only resolve non-ambiguously if [this other Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-to-respond-if-taiwan-invaded-before-2035/) resolves positively, which is itself conditioned on [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10923/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2035/).\n\nThis question resolves positively if, in direct retaliation to a United States attack on China, China attacks some part of the United States' internationally recognized territory within one year of the United States first attacking China. China is said to have attacked the United States if a member of the Politburo Standing Committee or the paramount leader of China approves an offensive physical attack on United States infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, _inside United States territory_, in direct retaliation to a US attack on China, and the attack is actually carried out. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate American nationals, will count.\n\nIn case there is a dispute over whether China indeed attacked the United States, veracity will be determined via a consensus of Western media outlets", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?", "desc": "In the U.S. the president is elected through the Electoral College to a four-year term. \n\nThe winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Their term will last until January 20, 2029, when the the winner of the 2028 presidential election will likely assume office until January 20, 2033.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the person / people who are the President of the United States during the entirety of the following two presidential terms (which are predicted to last between January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2033) is/are member/s of the Republican Party.", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will Bill Maher vote for a Republican President by 2042?", "desc": "[Bill Maher](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Maher) is an American political commentator and the host of the talk show [Real Time with Bill Maher](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher). Maher has called himself a [liberal, libertarian, and progressive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Maher#Politics). Maher has traditionally supported Democrats. He is an atheist who has criticized Christianity and the Republican Party, called the Second Amendment \"bullshit\", supports legalized abortion, and supported Obama's health care reforms. He has been criticized from the left before for his [criticism of Islam](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vln9D81eO60) and his [support of Israel](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rashida-tlaib-suggests-boycott-of-bill-mahers-show-for-hosts-position-on-israel). Recently, Maher [had a segment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMBzfUj5zsg) in which he stated that the recent uptick in Americans who self-identify as LGBT, especially as transgender, is driven in part by social contagion, and discussed how a lawyer for the ACLU wanted to stop the circulation of Abigail Shirer's Irreversible Damage. For this some people have claimed that he is [not a liberal](https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/628fba3966d6b500218f5f34/bill-maher-anti-lgbtq-transgender-comments/) and have called for [boycotts](https://news.yahoo.com/bill-maher-gone-too-far-210951801.html) of his show. Maher has had [politicians, public intellectuals, and others](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher_episodes) from all over the political spectrum on his show, and describes himself as an advocate of free speech. Recently, Maher had on [New York City mayor Eric Adams, a centrist Democrat and former Republican](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHrLx3jGH_c), and the two criticized the more hardline parts of the political left in the United States.\n\nIn a [recent appearance on Ben Shapiro's show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvqUxYSRapo) Maher said that he has voted for Republican presidential candidates in the past, specifically Bob Dole in 1996 and for John McCain in the 2000 Republican Primary (and says he may have voted for him in the general election had he won the nomination). He also says the following:\n\n>As long as the Republicans are a party who, in my view, does not take seriously the emergency of climate change, and I'm not sure if they even believe in American democracy anymore . . . as long as those two issues are what they are for Republicans, I don't think they're even save-able. Whereas, the Democrats, maybe I'm being a cockeyed optimist, but I think they still are save-able.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bill Maher publicly claims he has voted for a Republican for the Presidency for an election occurring after January 1, 2022, and before January 1, 2042. If by January 1, 2042 a reasonable search finds no evidence of such a statement, this question resolves as **No**. No proof of actual voting record is required, the question will resolve based on Maher's public statements only. If it is unclear whether a public statement by Maher qualifies admins may use their discretion or resolve this question as **Ambiguous**. \n\nWhether Maher ceases to make public statements before the question resolves is immaterial to this question, the question only depends on the existence of a qualifying public statement from Maher himself at the resolution date", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?", "desc": "The WHO reported over [6.3 million deaths from COVID-19](https://covid19.who.int/) as of early June 2022. The true death toll is likely [much higher than official records](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0), according to excess mortality figures. One [model by The Economist](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates) estimates 21.2 million deaths due to COVID-19 as of late May 2022. Excess deaths are calculated by comparing the total deaths reported from all causes to how many deaths would be expected given data from recent years.\n\nWhile COVID-19 will continue to impact humanity [indefinitely](https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/05/covid-why-we-will-never-eradicate-coronavirus-15132), infectious disease experts are concerned that [another pandemic could emerge at anytime.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/double-pandemic-covid-flu/614152/)\n\nThere are a variety of factors that could might make a novel pandemic likely, including:\n\n* [The growth of the world population.](https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-projected-reach-98-billion-2050-and-112-billion-2100)\n\n* [The continuation of factory farming.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/22/21228158/coronavirus-pandemic-risk-factory-farming-meat)\n\n* [Climate change increasing cross-species viral transmission risk.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w)\n\n* [Habitat destruction exposing people to new pathogens.](https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/04/habitat-destruction-covid19/)\n\n* [It becoming increasingly easy to manufacture deadly viruses in the lab.](https://www.vox.com/22937531/virus-lab-safety-pandemic-prevention)\n\n* [The U.S. congress thus far failing to pass pandemic prevention legislation.](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22983046/congress-covid-pandemic-prevention)\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of a novel pandemic occurring in the coming decade.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least 25 million people have died from an infectious pathogen (excluding SARS-CoV-2 and its descendants) from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2031, according to excess mortality figures compiled by what Metaculus judges to be the most credible of following sources:\n\n* The World Health Organisation (or its successor)\n\n* Credible media reports/models\n\n* Academic studies/models\n\nIf there are several reports/models judged credible by Metaculus admins, the resolution will be determined by the median of the reported deaths.\n\nVariants of pathogens currently causing human disease, such as variants of SARS-CoV-2, **do not count** — with no exceptions. However, novel pathogens that are the result of [antigenic shift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift) **do count.** Among pathogens that cause human disease, antigenic shift is currently [only](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/vim.2017.0141) known to occur with influenza A and this process is described by the US CDC as an [\"abrupt, major change in a flu A virus, resulting in new HA and/or new HA and NA proteins in flu viruses that infect humans\"](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm). Contrast this with [antigenic drift](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8669911/), which is the mechanism that produces variants for pathogens like SARS-CoV-2", "prediction": "6.7%"} +{"title": "Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?", "desc": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' first prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the [comprehension challenge in The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test), in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> The dataset consists of 14,944 questions about 408 movies with high semantic diversity. The questions range from simpler \"Who\" did \"What\" to \"Whom\", to \"Why\" and \"How\" certain events occurred. Each question comes with a set of five possible answers; a correct one and four deceiving answers provided by human annotators.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st 2030, a computer program is publicly and credibly documented to have achieved at least 90.0% accuracy or above the human baseline on a benchmark comparable to the [MovieQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02902), when restricted to only watching the movies tested (rather than reading plots, subtitles, scripts, or human-provided transcriptions for the movies). Any candidate benchmark must provide difficult questions that test deep comprehension, including questions of how and why, rather than mere shallow pattern matching.\n\nImportantly, this means that any candidate computer program must _not_ have been given access to media that could have reasonably been expected to spoil the plot to any of these movies during its training (for example, the Wikipedia pages for these movies). The AI is allowed to be trained on other media, such as Project Gutenberg books. This restriction is merely intended to eliminate cheating, not to require any additional capabilities beyond what Gary Marcus specified.\n\nA simple way to prove that a candidate computer program did not cheat is by showing that all the data the AI was trained on was generated prior to when the movies were released. However, this is not the only way of proving that cheating did not occur.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate computer program met these criteria", "prediction": "99%"} +{"title": "Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?", "desc": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' second prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in [Rebooting AI](http://rebooting.ai/).\n\nFor this challenge, we will use the [NarrativeQA dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.07040) as an illustrative example of a benchmark that could trigger positive resolution,\n\n> To encourage progress on deeper comprehension of language, we present a new dataset and set of tasks in which the reader must answer questions about stories by reading entire books or movie scripts. These tasks are designed so that successfully answering their questions requires understanding the underlying narrative rather than relying on shallow pattern matching or salience.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st 2030, a computer program is publicly and credibly documented to have achieved at least 90.0% accuracy or above the human baseline on a benchmark comparable to the NarrativeQA dataset when it is required to read the full books to answer the questions (as opposed to plot summaries or other spoilers). Any candidate benchmark must provide difficult questions that test deep reading comprehension, including questions of how and why, rather than mere shallow pattern matching.\n\nThe human baseline Bleu-4 score for NarrativeQA was obtained by giving humans summaries of the books, and then asking them the same questions that are asked of the computer (which is not given any summary). The BLEU-4 score on the full-story setting was measured to be 19.65, according to table 6 in [the paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.07040.pdf). The human-baseline Rouge-L score is 57.02, which is far better than some of the results achieved by Machine Learning models. For example, [Mou et al., 2021](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.03826.pdf) obtains a Rouge-L score of just 29.21 in the full-story setting. \n\nImportantly, any candidate computer program must _not_ have been given access to media that could have reasonably been expected to spoil the plot to any of these books during its training (for example, the Wikipedia pages for these books). The AI is allowed to be trained on other media. This restriction is merely intended to eliminate cheating, not to require any additional capabilities beyond what Gary Marcus specified. \n\nA simple way to prove that a candidate computer program did not cheat is by showing that all the data the AI was trained on was generated prior to when the novels were published. However, this is not the only way of proving that cheating did not occur.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate computer program met these criteria", "prediction": "99%"} +{"title": "Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?", "desc": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' third prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending [Steve Wozniak's cup of coffee benchmark](https://www.fastcompany.com/1568187/wozniak-could-computer-make-cup-coffee)).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if before January 1st 2030, there is a public and credible demonstration of a robot capable of cooking in at least three kitchen environments that it has not seen before during training, preparing at least twenty non-trivial dishes. Furthermore, the robot must not have a failure rate above 1% while cooking dishes. A \"failure\" is anything that prevents the robot from making the intended edible and familiar dish.\n \nThe dishes must be non-trivial and must have come from an ordinary cookbook, and in particular, they must combine at least three different ingredients, and involve some degree of food preparation more complex than placing the ingredients together onto a plate and microwaving them.\n\nTo satisfy these conditions, the robot must be capable of operating in ordinary kitchens that are familiar to humans. It will be allowed to learn the placement of items in the kitchen, and how to use them, before working, just as a human would need time to learn how to operate in a kitchen. However, it must not take the robot more than one week of runtime learning to figure out where things are and how to use them in the kitchen.\n\nThe speed of the robot must also be comparable to a real human cook, ensuring that the dishes are not served unintentionally cold or stale. More precisely, it must be able to prepare meals within 130% of the average time that a professional human cook would prepare the meals. If there is no data available on average human cook times for these meals -- which could, potentially, be revealed by the expected time to prepare as given in a cookbook -- Metaculites will do their best to consult professional human cooks and ask for their best judgement.\n\nMetaculus admins will use their discretion in determining whether a candidate robot met these criteria", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?", "desc": "On May 31, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' fourth prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn't count.]", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2030, there is a public and credible demonstration of an AI writing code that clearly indicates the capability to do either of the following:\n\n(1) Given a natural language description of a complex computer program comparable to the non-research related ideas found in [this list of programming projects](https://github.com/vicky002/1000_Projects), the AI is able to write a computer program that satisfies the description to a satisfactory degree in at least 90.0% of cases. A computer program is said to have satisfied the conditions of a natural language description if there is a consensus among Metaculus admins that the code satisfies the conditions, without any major bugs. Minor bugs, such as the code occasionally crashing, will not disqualify any AI, as these are common even for professional human programmers.\n\n(2) The AI is able to perform (1) when given the ability to interact with a non-expert user. A non-expert user is defined as someone who credibly reports _not_ being able to write code that satisfies the conditions of these project ideas, but who _is_ able to operate a computer well enough to understand whether a given computer program passes the requirements to a satisfactory degree.\n\nImportantly, as per Marcus' constraint, we will not allow the AI to simply glue together code from existing libraries. It must generate code _de novo_, meaning that a plagiarism detector on par with the [Copyleaks code plagiarism checker](https://copyleaks.com/code-plagiarism-checker/) would not flag the code as definitively indicating cheating in more than 5% of cases", "prediction": "90%"} +{"title": "Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?", "desc": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consists of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. This question is about Marcus' fifth prediction,\n\n> In 2029, AI will not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if before January 1st 2030, there is a public and credible demonstration of an AI capable of taking random proofs from any journal in the [top 15 English-language mathematics journals according to the Scimago Journal Rank](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=2601) and converting them into code, such as [Lean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lean_(proof_assistant)) or [Coq](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coq), suitable for formal verification by simply running the code with aid of an appropriate proof assistant in at least 90.0% of cases.\n\nThe AI must be capable enough such that, when provided a file corresponding to a published mathematics paper, it can read the paper and construct formal proofs corresponding to the proofs in the mathematics paper, in the way that a very competent mathematician would be able to do, if that mathematician was familiar with formal verification and proof assistants.\n\nIf the [Scimago Journal Rank](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=2601) is discontinued before 2030, another reputable ranking of mathematics journals will take its place according to the best judgement of the Metaculus administrators, and will be used in the course of resolving this question", "prediction": "80%"} +{"title": "Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?", "desc": "On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus [challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things?s=r). His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and operationalized on Metaculus.\n\nThey are,\n\n* [Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11175/ai-movie-comprehension-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11177/ai-book-comprehension-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11179/ai-as-a-competent-cook-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11188/ai-as-a-competent-programmer-before-2030/)\n\n* [Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11198/ai-verification-of-math-proofs-by-2030/)", "resc": "This question resolves positively if more than two of the above listed questions on Metaculus resolve positively, and negatively otherwise", "prediction": "96%"} +{"title": "Will Ron DeSantis become US president by 2029?", "desc": "From [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ready-ron-pac-urges-desantis-run-president-2024),\n\n> A new political action committee has formed attempting to draft Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024, and it is being run by a Republican consultant heavyweight who has been a veteran of campaigns involving former GOP Presidents Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump. \n\n> DeSantis, running this year for a second term as Florida governor, has consistently led polls among Republican primary voters if Trump isn't a contender. However, when Trump is included in the polling, DeSantis usually runs a distant second.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Ron DeSantis became US president (but not merely acting president) at any point before the end of the day on January 20th 2029 Eastern Time. Otherwise, it resolves negatively", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?", "desc": "Metagenomic sequencing is an approach that characterizes all of the genetic material (DNA and RNA) that is present in a sample. Recent developments in metagenomics, namely the advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, have [enabled](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0113-7) billions of base pair reads in a single run — allowing for a relatively fast and inexpensive analysis of all the genetic content of a sample. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) is different from most other approaches in that it can be untargeted as opposed to involving the targeting of specific pathogens.\n\nAs additional context, the following is a relevant description about mNGS [by](https://asm.org/Articles/2019/November/Metagenomic-Next-Generation-Sequencing-How-Does-It) the American Society for Microbiology:\n> Metagenomic NGS (mNGS) is simply running all nucleic acids in a sample, which may contain mixed populations of microorganisms, and assigning these to their reference genomes to understand which microbes are present and in what proportions. The ability to sequence and identify nucleic acids from multiple different taxa for metagenomic analysis makes this a powerful new platform that can simultaneously identify genetic material from entirely different kingdoms of organisms.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether untargeted metagenomic next-generation sequencing will be utilized on a large scale in the US for pathogen identification.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US CDC is either sponsoring or supporting a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program that has at least 50 total sites in at least 10 different [counties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_(United_States)s) at any time before December 31, 2024, according to credible media reports. At least one of the goals of such a program should be identification of novel pathogens. The program must be active on or before December 31, 2024, meaning that at least 50 sites across at least 10 counties are actively doing metagenomic sequencing on envrionmental samples or random clinical samples. \n\nAs an example of what form such a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program might take, consider the CDC's ongoing [COVID wastewater surveillance program](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance). This COVID-specific program involves state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments submitting testing data to CDC, and CDC then standardizing and interpreting the data. As of June 5, 2022, there are 748 sites with \"current data,\" and hundreds of US counties are represented.", "prediction": "2%"} +{"title": "Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?", "desc": "The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted innovation in face masks, including [through](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) a US BARDA [mask innovation challenge](https://drive.hhs.gov/mask_challenge.html). \n\nAccording to BARDA's [target product profile](https://www.challenge.gov/?challenge=mask-innovation-challenge-phase2&tab=resources), the main performance measures for its challenge are:\n>\n- Thermal Burden & Moisture Retention\n- Breathability\n- Leakage Ratio\n- Filter Efficiency\n\nOn June 6, 2022, BARDA [announced](https://www.medicalcountermeasures.gov/stories/maskfinalists/) the 10 finalists of the second phase of its mask innovation challenge. The final phase will result in two top winning designs and two runner-ups. BARDA [plans](https://www.science.org/content/article/hate-your-face-mask-there-s-hope) on announcing these in October.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand whether the winning designs of BARDA's mask innovation challenge will be commercially available and affordable to the general public. This may inform the need for further mask innovation.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of the four winning mask designs (the top two winners/two runner-ups) is commercially available and costs less than $1 per unit on or before December 31, 2024. If the mask is reusable — for the purposes of this question, meaning it is expected to last for at least 1 month of daily usage — then it can cost up to $25 per unit. All prices in the resolution of this question will be [inflation-indexed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) to 2021 USD. The mask should be available for purchase on [Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/), since it [dominates](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211102005144/en/92-of-Consumers-Are-More-Likely-to-Buy-Products-From-Amazon-According-to-Feedvisor%E2%80%99s-Consumer-Report) e-commerce.\n\n*13 July clarification: A sale where the price of the product is temporarily discounted would count for this question if such a sale lasts for at least 6 consecutive months at a price of less than $1 per unit (or $25 per unit for those reusable for at least a month of daily usage).\nAny possible limits on bulk purchases will not affect resolution of this question.*", "prediction": "4%"} +{"title": "Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?", "desc": "The idea of an international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness has been recently discussed. According to a [March 2021 joint article](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/no-government-can-address-the-threat-of-pandemics-alone-we-must-come-together) by leaders of 23 countries as well as President of the European Council and Director-General of the World Health Organisation, the main goal of such a treaty would be to:\n>\nfoster an all of government and all of society approach, strengthening national, regional and global capacities and resilience to future pandemics. This includes greatly enhancing international co-operation to improve, for example, alert systems, data-sharing, research and local, regional and global production and distribution of medical and public health counter-measures such as vaccines, medicines, diagnostics and personal protective equipment.\n\n[According](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/coronavirus/pandemic-treaty/) to the European Council, the following are the anticipated next steps of the planned treaty:\n> The intergovernmental negotiating body, tasked with drafting and negotiating this international instrument, will hold its next meeting by 1 August 2022, to discuss progress on a working draft. It will then deliver a progress report to the 76th World Health Assembly in 2023, with the aim to adopt the instrument by 2024.\n\nThe purpose of this question is to [understand](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-usa-sovereignty-who/) the potential of this treaty to be adopted.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, by December 31, 2024, at least 10 countries have ratified an new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness. This question concerns only new treaties, meaning treaties which have not been ratified by any nation as of June 1, 2022", "prediction": "19%"} +{"title": "Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?", "desc": "A key issue in developing [quantum computers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_threshold_theorem) is the implementation of [quantum error correction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_error_correction). If physical noise corrupts one or more qubits, error correction codes make it possible to detect and correct those errors, so long as the amount of corrupted data is under a given threshold.\n\nThe [quantum threshold theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_threshold_theorem) states that if a quantum computer's physical error rate is low enough, the logical error rate can be reduced to arbitrarily low levels, achieving highly [fault-tolerant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fault_tolerance) general computing. [Fowler, et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/0803.0272) proposed a scheme that could handle an error rate approaching 1%; the challenge will be designing schemes capable of handling higher error rates.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2032, a credible peer-reviewed paper is published which demonstrates a procedure that can execute any quantum program with arbitrarily good fidelity, which can be implemented using only one- and two-qubit gates with fidelity at most 95%. Any polynomially growing number of noisy one- and two-qubit gates are allowed to be used in this procedure.", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?", "desc": "A recent [Washington Post article](https://archive.ph/F1bKs) chronicled an interesting development at Google,\n\n> Lemoine, who works for Google's Responsible AI organization, began talking to LaMDA as part of his job in the fall. He had signed up to test if the artificial intelligence used discriminatory or hate speech.\n\n> As he talked to LaMDA about religion, Lemoine, who studied cognitive and computer science in college, noticed the chatbot talking about its rights and personhood, and decided to press further. In another exchange, the AI was able to change Lemoine's mind about Isaac Asimov's third law of robotics.\n\n> Lemoine worked with a collaborator to present evidence to Google that LaMDA was sentient. But Google vice president Blaise Aguera y Arcas and Jen Gennai, head of Responsible Innovation, looked into his claims and dismissed them. So Lemoine, who was placed on paid administrative leave by Google on Monday, decided to go public.\n\nIn addition, 37.2% of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs\" according to [a survey by the Sentience Institute in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9807/aims-2021-survey-legal-rights-for-ai/).", "resc": "This question resolves positively if before January 1st 2035, any federal, state, county, or city government within the United States, with a population of over 25,000, recognizes any legal rights for AIs, or regulates the behavior of individual humans with the explicit intent of protecting the welfare of computer programs. These regulations must _not_ simply be ordinary controls over the production, distribution, or use of computers, with no regard for the inherent well-being of any sentient entities other than humans: they must explicitly refer to \"rights\", \"welfare\", \"cruelty\", \"abuse\" or a word with equivalent meaning, in reference to the AI, in a moral and legal sense, putting AI on a comparable level to some animals, or even humans", "prediction": "43%"} +{"title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?", "desc": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively. In May 2022, Australia held a general election to elect the 47th Parliament of Australia. The next general election (for the 48th Parliament) will occur within the next three years. \n\nFrom Wikipedia:\n\n> The next Australian federal election will be held some time in or before 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. All 151 seats in the House of Representatives and likely 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate will be contested. It is expected that at this election, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be seeking re-election to a second term in office, opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition under Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton.\n\nQuestion mostly copied from the [2022 general election question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/) by @chrisjbillington.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition or by the Liberal Party.\n\nIt resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition\n\nIf no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government.\n\nIf the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nThis question will close when voting closes for the eastern states (NSW, Victoria, Queensland) on election day", "prediction": "33%"} +{"title": "Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?", "desc": "The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [normally requires](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) clinical trial-based efficacy data for authorization of vaccines. This is usually true even in emergency situations in which a [public health emergency (PHE)](https://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/legal/Pages/phedeclaration.aspx) has been declared: for example, during the COVID-19 PHE the FDA [required](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) phase III clinical efficacy trials for authorization of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Phase III trials, which involve the the vaccine candidate being administered to thousands of people to test for efficacy, are the [longest and costliest](https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/examination-clinical-trial-costs-barriers-drug-development-0) phase of clinical testing.\n\nHowever, some have argued that the FDA need not insist on clinical trial-based efficacy data for authorization of vaccines in emergency situations — especially given that the congressional authorization for Emergency Use Authorization [does not require](https://progress.institute/taking-emergency-use-authorization-seriously/#emergency-use-authorization-doesn-t-require-clinical-trial-data) applications to include phase III clinical data. \n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand how likely US FDA is to authorize a new vaccine on an emergency basis via an [Emergency Use Authorization](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) without phase III clinical data being in the relevant vaccine application package.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 1, 2032, the US FDA authorizes a vaccine on an emergency basis before that vaccine has completed a phase III clinical trial. This is **conditional** on the US declaring a public health emergency (relevant Metaculus question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11346/us-declares-public-health-emergency-by-2031/)) **and** on a subsequent declaration authorizing the FDA to issue EUAs (no relevant Metaculus question, but example [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/03/17/2020-05484/declaration-under-the-public-readiness-and-emergency-preparedness-act-for-medical-countermeasures)); If these two conditions are not met, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nFor the purposes of this question, If a vaccine is authorized after a Human Challenge Trial is completed in place of a full-scale phase-III trial, that would be considered an authorization without a phase-III trial and this question would resolve as **Yes.**", "prediction": "10%"} +{"title": "Will the Catholic Church end the requirement for clerical celibacy by 2030?", "desc": "According to Wikipedia, [Clerical celibacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clerical_celibacy_in_the_Catholic_Church) is the discipline within the Catholic Church by which only unmarried men are ordained to priesthood.\n\nRecently there have been [discussions](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/spains-catholics-challenge-future-of-priestly-celibacy-n8hwdn65m) about this issue. We also have a [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10817/date-that-catholic-church-ordains-women/) about the possibility of female clergy.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Roman Catholic Church announces via any official channel that it will allow ordination of married men into the priesthood or allow priests to marry before January 1, 2030. It resolves as **No** if no such announcements are made.", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?", "desc": ".", "resc": "From [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/31/asia/china-taiwan-invasion-scenarios-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html),\n\n> If China tries to take Taiwan, are the United States and its allies able to stop it? [The] alarming answer is: Quite possibly not. Analysts say China has more troops, more missiles and more ships than Taiwan or its possible supporters, like the US or Japan, could bring to a fight. That means that if China is absolutely determined to take the island it probably can.\n\n> But there's a caveat; while China could likely prevail, any victory would come at an extremely bloody price for both Beijing and its adversaries.\n\n> Many analysts say an invasion of Taiwan would be more dangerous and complex than the Allied D-Day landings in France in World War II. US government documents put the number of killed, injured and missing from both sides during the almost three-month-long Normandy campaign at almost half a million troops.\n\n***If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?***\n\nThis question will only resolve as either **Yes** or **No** if China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan at any time between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2035. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point within 3 years after the beginning of the invasion, the entire [main island of Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Taiwan) is under *de facto* control of the People's Republic of China.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, China will be considered to \"launch a full-scale invasion\" if the event is described as such by both The New York Times and the Associated Press, or if at least 1,000 Chinese Armed Forces are deployed to put the [main island of Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Taiwan) under the control of the People's Republic of China. In other words, invasion will be defined the same as in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10923/china-to-invade-taiwan-before-2035/).\n\nFor this question, \"de facto\" control indicates that a government has the ability to freely deploy armed forces or police in a given region and has the ability to pass some laws governing that region. The final determination of who has \"de facto\" control will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus Admins.", "prediction": "60%"} +{"title": "Will more than 33% of the earth's land area be covered by forest in 2050?", "desc": "The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines forest as:\n\n> Land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5 meters and a canopy cover of more than 10 percent, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use. \n\nIn 2020, FAO estimated ([pdf](https://www.fao.org/3/CA8753EN/CA8753EN.pdf)) about 31% of the earth's land area to be covered by forest. That's [down](https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation) from ~34% in 1900 and ~37% in 1700. Much of that is due to increasing population levels; the United Nations [projects](https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900) a population of 9-10 billion people in 2050. On the other hand, the agricultural sector is producing ever more food per hectare of land, and [in several countries the deforestation trend has already reversed](https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation).", "resc": "The question will be resolved using either using the median of the first three estimates to be published in credible academic journals in 2050 or thereafter, or an estimate given by the UN published in 2050 or later, whichever happens first.", "prediction": "29%"} +{"title": "Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?", "desc": "[Sarah Elizabeth Sanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Sanders), born August 13, 1982, also known as Sarah Huckabee Sanders, is an American political analyst and politician. She was the 31st White House press secretary, serving under former President Donald Trump from 2017 to 2019. She was the third woman to serve in that position. Sanders previously worked on the election campaigns of her father, Arkansas governor and presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, and later served as a senior advisor on Trump's 2016 presidential campaign.\n\nAs of June 2022, Sanders is the Republican Party's nominee in [the 2022 Arkansas gubernatorial election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Arkansas_gubernatorial_election)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Sarah Sanders is, at any time, the 2024 Republican Party nominee for either President of the United States or Vice President of the United States. This question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur", "prediction": "6%"} +{"title": "Will Andrew Yang hold high Federal office in the United States before February 1 2037?", "desc": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang), born January 13, 1975, is an American political activist, entrepreneur, lobbyist, and former corporate lawyer. Yang is best known for being a candidate in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries and the 2021 New York City Democratic mayoral primary. His signature policy in the 2020 presidential cycle was a universal basic income (UBI) of $1,000 a month as a response to job displacement by automation. \n\nOn October 4, 2021, Andrew Yang announced that he was leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent, faulting what he characterized as a system stuck in increasing polarization and saying that he is \"more comfortable trying to fix the system than being a part of it\". On October 5, Yang founded the [Forward Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward_Party), a political action committee that seeks to form a political party that will alleviate political polarization and reform the U.S. political and economic systems.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before February 1 2037, Andrew Yang legally holds one of the following offices: \n\n- United States Representative\n- United States Senator\n- Speaker of the House of Representatives\n- Vice President of the United States\n- President of the United States", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Before 2032, will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?", "desc": "All currently licensed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are administered via an intramuscular injection. There is currently interest in another approach: [intranasal vaccination](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(22)00025-1/fulltext), which is usually given as a spray into the nose. It is thought that this will elicit a better immune response in the mucus membranes of the nose, mouth, and throat — which is where SARS-CoV-2 infections normally begin — and thus might work better at preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Other potential advantages of the intranasal approach is that it is [needle-free](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abg9857) and would [not require](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/how-nasal-covid-19-vaccines-can-help-prepare-for-infection-where-it-starts) specialized training to administer.\n\nAs of November 2021, there are [12](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(22)00025-1/fulltext#tbl0002) SARS-CoV-2 intranasal vaccine candidates in clinical trials. Intranasal vaccines exist for other viruses, most notably [flu](https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/vis/vis-statements/flulive.html ).\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the potential for an intranasal vaccine being authorized for the purposes of both addressing COVID-19 and advancing the general state of intranasal vaccine development.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a SARS-CoV-2 intranasal vaccine candidate is authorized by the [USA](https://www.fda.gov/), [UK](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency), [EU](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en), or [Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada.html) at any point before January 1, 2032. Any kind of approval, including emergency approval, would count.\n\nFor resolution, there will be no requirements on the demonstrated efficacy or safety of the vaccine; approval by any of the 4 government agencies is the sole criterion", "prediction": "89%"} +{"title": "Before 2032, will a vaccine against HIV-1 be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?", "desc": "To date there is no vaccine to protect against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Of all diseases for which there vaccine development has been attempted HIV/AIDS is perhaps the [most difficult target](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2572109/). This is in large part due to: HIV having very high rate of mutation and recombination during viral replication, the lack of good correlates of immune protection, and there not being a small animal model for testing. Two large HIV vaccine trials recently failed — a vaccine candidate in Phase 2b/3 testing [failed in 2020](https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/experimental-hiv-vaccine-regimen-ineffective-preventing-hiv) and another vaccine candidate in Phase 2b [failed in 2021](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-and-global-partners-announce-results-from-phase-2b-imbokodo-hiv-vaccine-clinical-trial-in-young-women-in-sub-saharan-africa). \n\nOne potentially promising development is continued progress in understanding of and elicitation of [broadly neutralizing antibodies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7040474/). Another promising recent development is the use of the mRNA vaccine platform for new vaccine candidates, with the National Institutes of Health recently having [launched a Phase I study](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-launches-clinical-trial-three-mrna-hiv-vaccines) of 3 mRNA vaccine candidates.\n\nThis question is specifically asking about a vaccine against HIV-1, which [when compared to HIV-2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23444290/) is the more virulent and more infectious type of HIV and the cause of the vast majority of HIV infections worldwide\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand if there will be an approved HIV-1 vaccine. HIV/AIDS is estimated to kill [over half a million people](https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet) every year, according to UNAIDS. The successful development of a HIV vaccine is also an important marker for general progress in vaccinology, given the difficulties encountered thus far in developing a vaccine against HIV.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a HIV-1 vaccine candidate is authorized by the [USA](https://www.fda.gov/), [UK](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency), [EU](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en), or [Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada.html) at any point before January 1, 2032. Any kind of approval, including emergency approval, would count.\n\nFor resolution, there will be no requirements on the demonstrated efficacy or safety of the vaccine; approval by any of the 4 government agencies is the sole criterion", "prediction": "70%"} +{"title": "Before 2032 will a universal influenza vaccine be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada?", "desc": "Currently, influenza vaccination necessitates making and administering new and updated flu vaccines each year. This process [involves](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-selection.htm) having to predict which influenza strains will be predominant in the next flu season and including these strains in the vaccine formulation. \n\nThe effectiveness of the flu vaccine is usually [40-60%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm), though it can be much lower than this — for the 2021-2022 for example, the US CDC estimates effectiveness of just [16%](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7110a1.htm). This is [likely the result](https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20211217/this-years-flu-vaccine-major-mismatch) of a large antigenic mismatch between the strains in this season's vaccine and the strains in circulation.\n\nThere is intense interest in developing a universal flu vaccine. Such a vaccine [would target](https://asm.org/Articles/2019/August/A-Universal-Influenza-Vaccine-How-Close-Are-We) conserved regions of flu — this thus would negate the need for modification from year to year and would also likely result in higher effectiveness than that of the seasonal vaccines. Recently, a universal flu vaccine candidate emerged from a Phase I clinical trial with [encouraging results](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1118-7) and the National Institutes of Health has recently launched a Phase I trial of [another vaccine candidate](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-launches-clinical-trial-universal-influenza-vaccine-candidate).\n\nThis question is specifically asking about a universal vaccine against influenza type A , which is involved in most strains of the flu and historically have been the [only known cause](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/types.htm) of flu pandemics. \n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand if there will be an approved universal influenza vaccine. The successful development of a universal flu vaccine would be a milestone in protecting the general population [against future flu pandemics](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4899887/).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a universal influenza ([type A](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/types.htm)) vaccine candidate is authorized by the [USA](https://www.fda.gov/), [UK](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/medicines-and-healthcare-products-regulatory-agency), [EU](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en), or [Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada.html) at any point before January 1, 2032. Any kind of approval, including emergency approval, would count.\n\nFor resolution, the vaccine must have demonstrated effectiveness of at least 75% against symptomatic influenza virus infection for a minimum of one year against all strains of influenza A — this is a widely recognized goal that was [defined by](https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/218/3/347/4904047?login=false) the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in 2018", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?", "desc": "[Costco Wholesale Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costco) is an American multinational corporation which operates a chain of membership-only big-box retail stores. As of 2020, Costco was the fifth largest retailer in the world, and the world's largest retailer of choice and prime beef, organic foods, rotisserie chicken, and wine as of 2016. In 2021, Costco was ranked #10 on the Fortune 500 rankings of the largest United States corporations by total revenue.\n\nFor decades, Costco has offered for sale in the United States [a combo meal](https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/12jIuKNWU8CzKJ0GRL_39A--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTY0MDtoPTQ2Nw--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-03/127c2480-9fb7-11ec-bfff-2a62f952c478) consisting of a \"1/4 lb plus\" hot dog and a 20 oz soda. Remarkably, [the price of this offering has not changed since 1985](https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-not-raising-price-of-hot-dog-combo-2022-5?r=US&IR=T): it remains $1.50, despite substantial inflation over the last 40 years. As of May 2022, there were reportedly no plans to increase the price in the near future, despite [inflation surging to 40-year highs.](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/10/us-inflation-rate-may-2022-four-decade-high)\n\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-not-raising-price-of-hot-dog-combo-2022-5?r=US&IR=T): \n\n>In a third-quarter earnings call, Senior Vice President Robert Nelson told investors that there were no current plans to increase the food court favorite price, despite \"online rumors.\"\n\n>...\n\n>\"We have no plans to take that hot dog above a buck fifty. End of story,\" Costco CEO Craig Jelinek told shareholders in January 2020.\n\nAnd according to [a 2018 article](https://www.425business.com/news/costco-ceo-craig-jelinek-on-shareholders-costco-com-and-hot-dogs/article_5ff4b632-1f75-5e98-b9ff-6e02d676668b.html), when current Costco president and CEO W. Craig Jelinek suggested to the company's founder that the $1.50 price was too low, founder James Sinegal replied:\n\n>\"If you raise the effing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out.\"", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 1, 2025, any Costco location in the continental United States (the contiguous 48 states + D.C.) increases the price of the 1/4 lb hot dog and 20 oz soda combo meal to greater than $1.50, or decreases either the weight of the hot dog or the volume of soda sold while maintaining the price of the combo at $1.50. This question will resolve only if the price increase / quantity decrease actually takes effect (an announcement of intent to change the deal does not qualify).\n\nIf the combo meal is discontinued entirely before 2025, without any price increase or weight/volume decrease, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "prediction": "7.9%"} +{"title": "Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "On June 24, 2022, the Supreme Court of the United States handed down [its opinion](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/19-1392_6j37.pdf) in the case of [Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization), overturning Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, holding that the Constitution does not confer a right to abortion, and returning authority to regulate abortion to the people and their elected representatives.\n\nImmediately following the ruling, [several states banned abortion procedures](https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/jun/24/what-states-have-abortion-trigger-laws), and it is considered likely that more states will follow in the weeks and months following the ruling. [Other states have acted to legally preserve and protect abortion rights.](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-governor-signs-legal-protections-abortion-providers-patients-2022-06-13/)\n\nAbortion is currently regulated by the states, with no federal or constitutional law mandating any level of abortion access nationwide. However, it has been suggested by some that in the future, abortion may be banned nationally. Democratic Party Senator Chris Murphy [predicts](https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1540358809641799681):\n\n>\"Let's be 100% clear. If Republicans win control of the House, Senate and White House two years from now, they will pass a national abortion ban. And no matter where you live, no matter how pro-choice your state is, women and doctors will be locked up for practicing health care.\"\n\nHowever, former President Donald Trump does not appear minded to support a federal abortion ban, [telling Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-praises-supreme-court-decision-overturning-roe-v-wade) on June 24:\n\n>\"I think, in the end, this is something that will work out for everybody. This brings everything back to the states where it has always belonged.\"\n\n***Will abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to January 1, 2030, elective abortion of pregnancies prior to a gestational age of 16 weeks is formally banned nationwide in the US by either federal or constitutional law. \n\nExceptions for abortions of pregnancies resulting from rape or incest, or abortions to protect the life or health (including physical and mental health) of the mother are not covered by this question; this question concerns elective abortions in which none of those circumstances apply.", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?", "desc": "In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the [1905 Russian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution).\n\nThe possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, there is a large-scale armed conflict in Russia, according to credible media reports. For this question, a “a large-scale armed conflict” is a conflict which meets these criteria:\n\n* results in at least 1,000 deaths in Russia\n* has at least 100 participants directly involved in the killings,\n* with the majority of the participants on both sides being Russian citizens.\n\nSome examples of such events from the Russian history include the Russian Revolution, the [Russian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War), the [First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War) and [Second Chechen Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War). We ignore such events if they happen mostly in Crimea or any other territory occupied by Russia since 2014.", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "When the Coalition next governs Australia, will it be in majority?", "desc": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11332/coalition-wins-australian-federal-election/)\n\n---\n\nIn the 2022 federal election, the Labor Opposition won 77 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives, allowing them to form government with a narrow majority. The Coalition Government lost 10 seats to Labor, 6 to independents and 2 to the Greens (reducing them to 58 seats). \n\nThe rise of \"community\" or \"teal\" independents has been a remarkable aspect of the 2022 election result, with the independents taking otherwise \"blue-ribbon\" (safe, long-standing) Liberal seats. While the narrow Labor majority means that in this case the independents have not had to decide which major party to support in government, in a future election they may hold the balance of power. \n\nLiberals has been debating whether the party should try to win back its lost \"blue-ribbon\" seats or pursue alternative election strategies by appealing to different groups ([The Aus, paywalled](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/idea-the-liberals-can-win-traditional-alp-seats-is-nonsense/news-story/f15d12dcaa61337371b99e769c6a64e5), [The Aus, paywalled](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/bragg-says-mistake-for-libs-not-to-retake-teal-seats/news-story/379432f092fb10d750e668c0ad8e872a), [The Monthly, limited free access](https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2022/july/george-megalogenis/future-liberal-party#mtr), [The Guardian, not paywalled](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/04/the-liberal-party-cannot-rebuild-until-it-rediscovers-its-reason-to-exist)). Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison has reportedly proposed a \"progressive Liberal\" movement could [run under a different brand](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/reelect-pm-turns-out-some-werent-so-kean/news-story/21e6e4ab69ccb9f2f92bcbfbbb26c173) ([non-paywall version](https://www.6newsau.com/post/scott-morrison-suggests-setting-up-a-new-progressive-liberal-movement-as-the-coalition-partner)).", "resc": "When a Liberal or National is next sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the Liberals and Nationals have a majority in the House of Representatives.\n\nThis question will retroactively close 24 hours before the election day on which a Liberal or National government is next elected.\n\nIt is worth noting that there has also been discussion about whether the formal Coalition should split (it is comprised of several parties, in two party rooms: Liberal and National). However, for the purpose of this question it will still resolve **Yes** if members of the Liberal and National party rooms together comprise a majority.\n\nIf a Liberal or National government is not elected before January 1, 2032 this resolves as **ambiguous**", "prediction": "69%"} +{"title": "Before 2032, will at least $30 billion (2021 USD) in new funding be authorized via new legislation toward US pandemic preparedness?", "desc": "In September 2021, the US White House [released](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/03/fact-sheet-biden-administration-to-transform-capabilities-for-pandemic-preparedness/) a pandemic preparedness plan — [American Pandemic Preparedness: Transforming our Capabilities](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/American-Pandemic-Preparedness-Transforming-Our-Capabilities-Final-For-Web.pdf). The White House says that the aim is to \"lean forward and catalyze the advances in science, technology, and core capabilities required to protect the Nation against future and potentially catastrophic biological threats, whether naturally-occurring, accidental, or deliberate.\" The total cost of the plan is [$65.3 billion](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/American-Pandemic-Preparedness-Transforming-Our-Capabilities-Final-For-Web.pdf), to be invested over 7 to 10 years. However, as of late 2021 there [does not appear](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22848508/covid-pandemic-testing-vaccines-manchin-build-back-better) to be enough support in Congress for authorization of the funding amount requested in the American Pandemic Preparedness plan. \n\nIn March 2022, US Senators Patty Murray (D-WA) and Richard Burr (R-NC) introduced the Prepare for and Respond to Existing Viruses, Emerging New Threats, and [(PREVENT) Pandemics Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3799/text). On March 15, the Senate Health, Energy, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee [voted 22-2](https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2022/3/senate-committee-advances-pandemic-bill-packed-wit) to advance the legislation. The PREVENT Pandemics Act is intended to strengthen US pandemic preparedness, including via authorization of ~$1.9 billion in new spending\n\nThe purpose of this question is to understand if, within the next decade, at least $30B will be authorized toward US pandemic preparedness via new legislation.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, at least $30.0 billion in new funding (i.e., above baseline levels) is authorized by the US Congress toward pandemic preparedness via new legislation. The funding can be authorized in one piece of legislation or over multiple pieces of legislation.\n\nFor this question, USD will be [inflation-indexed](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) to 2021 USD.\n\nNote that this question asks about **authorization** of new funds, as opposed to appropriation. The [difference](https://indivisible.org/resource/legislative-process-101-authorization-vs-appropriation) is that authorization is a process \"done by Congress via legislation that can establish, continue, or modify an agency, program, or activity for a fixed or indefinite period of time\" while appropriations are \"done by Congress via legislation that authorizes agencies to make payments from the federal Treasury.\" In other words, authorizations occur through new legislation and make it so that money *can* be appropriated — and that money must then actually be appropriated for government agencies to spend it. This question just asks about authorization.\n\nAlso note that it **would count** if the funding authorization is rolled into legislation that is not primarily related to pandemic preparedness, for example a [renewed Build Back Better reconciliation attempt](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/06/27/manchin-schumer-build-back-better/). The focus of this question is on whether at least $30B in new funding will be authorized via any legislative process.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a **broad and inclusive view** will be taken with respect to what types of authorized funding would count as \"pandemic preparedness funding\" so long as the funding meaningfully relates to one of the following 12 areas of the [American Pandemic Preparedness plan](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/American-Pandemic-Preparedness-Transforming-Our-Capabilities-Final-For-Web.pdf) (pages 20 and 21):\n>\n- Vaccines \n- Therapeutics\n- Diagnostics\n- Early warning \n- Real-time Monitoring\n- Strengthen the US Public Health System by Expanding Capabilities to Respond to Public Health Emergencies\n- Global Health Security Capacity to Support Pandemic Preparedness\n- Personal Protective Equipment\n- US Capacity to Produce Vital Supplies\n- Strengthen Biosafety and Biosecurity, and Reduce Catastrophic Biological Threats\n- Improve the Regulatory Environment\n- Manage the Missio", "prediction": "54%"} +{"title": "Will three of the listed countries ratify an agreement to form the East African Federation before 2030?", "desc": "The [East African Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Federation) (Swahili: *Shirikisho la Afrika Mashariki*) is a proposed political union of the seven sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda – as a single federated sovereign state. The idea of this Federation has existed since the early 1960s, but has not yet come to fruition for a variety of reasons. In September 2018, [a committee was formed](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ready-for-a-united-states-of-east-africa-the-wheels-are-already-turning-1403564) to begin the process of drafting a regional constitution, and a draft constitution for the confederation was set to be written by the end of 2021 with its implementation by 2023; however, it is likely that this deadline will be [missed](https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/03/east-african-federation-looks-set-for-further-delay/).", "resc": "- To resolve as **Yes**, at least 3 of the 7 countries from the list must agree to peacefully merge into a single state.\n- An agreement must be formally ratified by the countries.\n- These countries are: Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/)\n\n***\n\nA [referendum on Scottish independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014. The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\n\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage.\n\nSince 2014, the United Kingdom has voted to leave the EU. However, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [ 62% of Scottish voters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) opting for \"Remain.\" (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) The governing Conservative Party then chose the hardest possible Brexit, leaving the Single Market as well as the European Union. Scotland was therefore taken out of the EU against its will and can only realistically rejoin by declaring independence. \n\nThe Scottish National Party won half the seats in the Scottish parliament during the [2021 elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election) even though Scotland has a proportional voting system. The SNP's leader Nicola Sturgeon has now [written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson to request a new referendum on independence](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50813510) with a proposed date of October 19, 2023. It is likely that a government response will be delayed by process of choosing a new Prime Minister now Johnson has resigned.", "resc": "For this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before January 1, 2030.\n\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until January 1, 2030 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\n\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, **or** by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\n\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before January 1, 2030, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\n\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously", "prediction": "5.7%"} +{"title": "Will Israel join the EU before 2050?", "desc": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#EU_membership_for_Israel)\n\n>Although Israel is not geographically located in Europe, it is a member in many European transnational federations and frameworks, and takes part in many European sporting events and the Eurovision Song Contest.\n\nCyprus, which is located very close to Israel, has been a [member of the EU for many years](https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/country-profiles/cyprus_en).\n\nAgain from [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#EU_membership_for_Israel)\n\n>The Israeli government has hinted several times that an EU membership bid is a possibility, but the EU itself currently proposes instead the closest possible integration \"just short of full membership.\" Faster advancement of such plans is somewhat hampered by the current instability in the Middle East and conflicts in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Lebanon.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Israel is formally admitted to the European Union at any time between October 5, 2022 to December 31, 2049, inclusive. Official statements by the EU will be required for resolution. Israel must officially begin its membership during this period; an announcement or promise of future membership will not suffice", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "38%"} +{"title": "Will the United Kingdom join the European Economic Area before 2040?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "66%"} +{"title": "Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "9%"} +{"title": "Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will the UK have a Labour government before June 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "96%"} +{"title": "Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "81%"} +{"title": "Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "64%"} +{"title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will Virgin Galactic file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "52%"} +{"title": "Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "33%"} +{"title": "Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "20%"} +{"title": "Will the Tasmanian Tiger be brought back from extinction before 2035?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "28%"} +{"title": "Will 'No Religion' responses represent at least 50% of the Australian population in the 2026 census?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/)\n\n***\n\nEvery 5 years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics conducts a census to collect data on all people in Australia on census night. Each census has a voluntary question \"What is the person's religion?\" with 'No Religion' being the first option.\n\nThe proportion of the population represented by 'No Religion' in the 2021 census was 38.9%, up from 30.1% in 2016.\n\nThe proportion of the population not responding to the question was 7.3% in 2021, down from 10% in 2016.\n\nThe next census will be conducted in 2026, most likely in early August.\nCensus data dating back to 1986 is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Australia#Census_data), and an overview of the changes in reported religion in the 2021 census is available at the [ABS website](https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/religious-affiliation-australia). If the schedule of census releases remains consistent, the 2026 census data will be released in 2027.", "resc": "The question will resolve positively if the 'No Religion' responses on the 2026 census represent at least 50% of the Australian population, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics", "prediction": "46%"} +{"title": "Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?", "desc": "3M Company, one of the 30 components making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average and ranked #102 on the Fortune 500, is a multinational corporation based in Minnesota with approximately 95,000 full-time equivalent employees. It manufactures a wide range of consumable industrial products used every day in offices, homes, hospitals, schools, factories and other workplaces. Well-known brands include Scotch-Brite abrasives and cleaning supplies, 3M respirators, Scotchgard Protector, Scotch tapes, Post-it notes, and Scotchlite films.\n\nIn 2021, 3M had operating income of $7.4 billion with net sales of $35.4 billion. It has increased stockholder dividends for 64 consecutive years. \n\n3M's market cap peaked at $154 billion in January 2018, and today's market cap of $74 billion is down over 50% from the peak.\n\nAlthough 3M is highly profitable and is widely diversified with over 60,000 products, it faces bankruptcy risk due to lawsuits related to Combat Arms brand earplugs supplied to the US military. In 2008, 3M acquired Aearo Technologies, which manufactured the earplugs. Although Aearo has been bankrupted by 3M, on August 26, 2022, a federal judge [ruled](https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2022/08/26/indianapolis-company-loses-court-bid-to-halt-historic-3m-lawsuit/65459182007/) that 3M has successor liability and that mass tort claims by veterans will be allowed to proceed. \n\nThe company could face more than $100 billion in losses from these lawsuits, which could result in bankruptcy for the company, Bloomberg [reports](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/3m-faces-100-billion-in-losses-from-veterans-earplug-suits-expert-says-1.1806435).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is an 8-K filing stating that the entity filing with the SEC under the Central Index Key (CIK) number 66740 has filed or intends to file a petition in bankruptcy court under Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation before January 1, 2026", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will the UK Labour Party have a female leader before 2030?", "desc": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the \"largest party in Western Europe\" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.\n\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010. As of September 2022, the Labour Party is led by Sir Keir Rodney Starmer KCB QC MP, a former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020. \n\nThe Labour Party is notably the only British political party with a significant national presence never to have elected a female leader.\n\nThe Conservatives first elected a female leader [in 1975](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Conservative_Party_leadership_election), Margaret Thatcher, and have since had two more, Theresa May from [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Conservative_Party_leadership_election) to 2019, and Liz Truss, elected in [September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Conservative_Party_leadership_election_(UK)).\n\nThe Green Party of England and Wales first elected a female leader, [Caroline Lucas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas), in 2008.\n\nPlaid Cymru first elected a female leader, Leanne Wood, in [2012.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Plaid_Cymru_leadership_election)\n\nThe Scottish National Party first elected a female leader, [Nicola Sturgeon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Sturgeon#First_Minister_of_Scotland), in 2014.\n\nThe UK Independence Party first elected a female leader, [Diane James](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diane_James), in 2016 (though James later declined to accept the position before filing paperwork with the Electoral Commission to finalize her election). \n\nThe Liberal Democrats first elected a female leader, Jo Swinson, [in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election). \n\nAs of September 2022, the Labour Party has not elected any female Leader. Margaret Beckett and Harriet Harman have briefly served as Acting Leader during leadership contests, but have not held the position of Leader of the Labour Party on a permanent basis.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if prior to January 1 2030 the Labour Party has a female Leader. She must be the permanent Leader of the Labour Party, not an Acting Leader, a Deputy Leader temporarily acting in the capacity of a Leader, or any form of caretaker leader. \n\nThe question resolves negatively if this does not occur, including if the Labour Party ceases to exist prior to January 1 2030. If the Labour Party is renamed, this question shall continue to exist for the renamed party.\n\nIf the Labour Party splits into multiple parties, this question shall focus on whichever successor party has the greater number of MPs in the House of Commons at the moment that it splits. If the number is equal, this question shall concern *either* of the successor parties having an equal number of MPs in the House of Commons at the moment that the party splits", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Will the UK House of Commons be elected by proportional representation before 2030?", "desc": "[Since 1950](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom#Members_and_elections), general elections for the House of Commons in the United Kingdom have been on a [first-past-the-post (FPTP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting) basis with a single victor. This election method stipulates that in each constituency the candidate with the most votes becomes that constituency's Member of Parliament.\n\nAlthough the UK general elections use FPTP in single-member constituencies, various [other voting systems](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/voting-systems/) are used or have been used for elections within the UK. Scotland uses the [semi-proportional additional member system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Additional_member_system#Scotland) (AMS) for the Scottish parliament, and Northern Ireland [uses the proportional single transferable vote (STV) system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly) for the Northern Ireland Assembly.\n\nReforms to the general election voting system have been proposed in the past, notably culminating in an unsuccessful [2011 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum) on whether an alternative vote (AV) method should be used instead. Proposals for reform have focused on both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.\n\nFor the purposes of this question proportional representation (PR) refers to a class of voting systems where the proportion of elected members of a party closely matches the national vote share that party received. There are several kinds of proportional representation, including party list PR, mixed-member PR, and single transferable vote (STV), as well as some semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, [parallel voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_voting), and [single non-transferable vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_non-transferable_vote).\n\nIn some forms of PR, such as mixed-member PR, most members are elected using first past the post and then additional members are added in a separate system (like party list PR) to achieve an overall more proportional result.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **yes** if before 2030 a UK general election takes place in which at least 15% of seats in the House of Commons are decided based on some kind of proportional representation. Proportional representation includes but is not limited to party list PR, additional member, mixed-member PR, parallel voting, and single transferable vote. Alternative vote is not included.\n\nSome proportional and semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, mixed-member PR, and parallel voting elect some seats using a non-proportional system (e.g. FPTP in single member constituencies) and others using a proportional system (e.g. party list PR). For the purposes of this question, only the seats elected using proportional representation method count toward the 15% threshold.\n\nIf the UK breaks up before 2030 then the question will relate to the political entity that is continuous with the current UK House of Commons. If no such entity exists the question resolves **ambiguous**", "prediction": "5%"} +{"title": "Will Apple adopt RCS technology for iPhones before 2026?", "desc": "[Rich Communication Services (RCS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Communication_Services) is a protocol allowing more robust and comprehensive support for texting and file sharing, especially for individuals with different phone models and carriers. It is largely seen as a successor to SMS and MMS technologies.\n\nThere has been a great deal of pressure from regulators, competitors, and consumers for Apple to adopt RCS, [which they have consistently rejected in favor of their proprietary iMessage service.](https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/7/23342243/tim-cook-apple-rcs-imessage-android-iphone-compatibility)\n\nAdopting RCS would allow iPhone users to communicate via text message with other phone users in a more customer-friendly manner.", "resc": "If by December 31, 2025, Apple has added RCS technology for text messaging to at least one model of mass-market consumer mobile phones available for purchase, this question will resolve as **Yes**. Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**", "prediction": "52%"} +{"title": "Will King Charles III abdicate the throne of the United Kingdom before September 9, 2032?", "desc": "[Charles III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_III), born November 14, 1948, is King of the United Kingdom and 14 other Commonwealth realms. He acceded to the throne on September 8, 2022 upon the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II, who was the longest-reigning British monarch in history, reigning for more than 70 years. At 73 years of age, Charles is the oldest person ever to assume the British throne.\n\nIn his first televised address following his accession to the throne, Charles III [said](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/king-charles-speech-queen-elizabeth-death-b2163521.html):\n\n>\"Queen Elizabeth's was a life well lived; a promise with destiny kept and she is mourned most deeply in her passing. That promise of lifelong service I renew to you all today.”\n\nHowever, [some say](https://www.who.com.au/will-prince-charles-make-prince-william-king) the King should abdicate in favour of his eldest son and heir apparent, [William, Prince of Wales](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William,_Prince_of_Wales):\n\n>... some royal fans have called for Charles to abdicate in favour of making his eldest son William the king.\n\n>Not only is William younger and more popular, his wife Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge is also considered by some to be a more favourable choice for Queen Consort than Camilla.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Charles III abdicates and ceases to be the monarch of the United Kingdom, before September 9, 2032. The question will resolve as **No** if Charles III is still reigning on September 9 2032, or if he ceases to be the United Kingdom's monarch for any reason other than abdication (e.g. death, dissolution of the monarchy, dissolution of the United Kingdom, etc.) prior to that date.\n\nNote that while Charles III is also the reigning monarch in [a number of other states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_realm), territories and various crown dependencies, his position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question", "prediction": "14%"} +{"title": "Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "desc": "[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)", "resc": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "prediction": "85%"} +{"title": "Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?", "desc": "The Nobel Prizes are five prestigious awards that are conferred annually to individuals that have made great contributions toward humankind.\n\n[AlphaFold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaFold) (AF) is an AI program for the prediction of protein structures developed by DeepMind in 2018. It was iterated upon and a second version (AlphaFold 2, AF2) was released to the public in 2021. AF and AF2 placed first in the overall rankings of CASP13 and CASP14 respectively. It is widely regarded as a transformational leap the structural biology space [1].\n\n[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03348-4", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2029, the official website of the Nobel Prizes (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/) lists the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold as a winner in any category, specifically for their contributions to their iteration of AlphaFold", "prediction": "67%"} +{"title": "Before 2030, will it be announced that the fueling of the UAMPS small modular nuclear reactor project at the Idaho National Laboratory has begun?", "desc": "", "resc": "The Carbon Free Power Project ([CFPP](https://www.cfppllc.com/)) is the US's first small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) construction project, funded in part by the [US Department of Energy](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/doe-approves-award-carbon-free-power-project) and located at the DOE's Idaho National Laboratory in Idaho Falls, Idaho. Commercial operation of the power plant is slated to begin in 2029, with the first module coming online that year. The CFPP will provide energy for Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems ([UAMPS](https://www.uamps.com/Carbon-Free)), a political subdivision of the State of Utah that provides wholesale electricity to public power systems in six western states. \n\nUAMPS began site characterization in 2020 for the CFPP, [completing it](https://www.uamps.com/File/4fdc4f44-6c90-44ba-b18e-3e9bb75a257f) in February 2022. As of the [August 2022 update](https://www.uamps.com/File/9d94667d-5a01-4f6b-9748-50bc4bfd040d), the project continues moving forward on schedule and within its budget. Also in August 2022, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission [approved](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/nrc-certifies-nuscale-small-modular-reactor-design-SMR-nuclear-us/628519/) the reactor's design, making it the first and only SMR design to have received completed NRC certification. \n\nHowever, historically the nuclear power industry has experienced decades of increasing cost overruns and project delays. See for example this MIT study published in 2020: [Sources of Cost Overrun in Nuclear Power Plant Construction Call for a New Approach to Engineering Design](https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(20)30458-X)\n\nThis question concerns fueling of the reactor. A pivotal step after completion of a nuclear reactor's construction is the loading of fuel. Once that step has taken place, the reactor can start producing electricity. \n\n***Before 2030, will it be announced that the fueling of a CFPP small modular nuclear reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory has begun?***\n\nResolution source is the CFPP project update page at https://www.uamps.com/Carbon-Free (Please scroll down to the section entitled *Clean Energy News* for project updates, which are typically posted monthly.)\n\nResolves as **Yes** upon an update being posted announcing that an initial fuel load has been delivered to at least one of the reactor modules before January 1, 2030. Else resolves as **No**.\n\nPer the [Metaculus FAQ](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ressrc), if the resolution source is judged by Metaculus Admins to be defunct, obsolete, or inadequate, then they will make a best effort to replace it with a functional equivalent. Admins have sole discretion in cases of any disputes and are the final determiners of this question's resolution.\n\n***See also:***\n\n* [What percent of US energy will be produced by nuclear fission power in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9450/share-of-us-energy-from-nuclear-fission-2050/)\n\n* [Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8677/smr-nuclear-1-of-any-nations-energy-2030/)", "prediction": "15%"} +{"title": "Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?", "desc": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2019 to 2022. He previously served as Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs from 2016 to 2018 and as Mayor of London from 2008 to 2016. Johnson has been Member of Parliament (MP) for Uxbridge and South Ruislip since 2015, having previously been MP for Henley from 2001 to 2008.\n\nIn 2022, Johnson resigned the leadership of the Conservative Party subsequent to [a wave of resignations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_Kingdom_government_crisis) from his cabinet and government, following numerous scandals. Following a leadership contest, he was succeeded in September 2022 by Liz Truss.\n\nHowever, there is speculation that should Truss fare poorly as leader, she may be replaced swiftly, and Johnson may make a comeback. As of September 26, 2022, [according to betting exchange Smarkets](https://twitter.com/SmarketsPol/status/1574408957124386818):\n\n>Boris Johnson is now second favourite to be the next Prime Minister — behind only Keir Starmer — suggesting that in the event Liz Truss goes before the next election, Johnson would be favourite to take over.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between October 24, 2022 to January 1, 2026, Boris Johnson again holds the office of Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. This does not require that he becomes Prime Minister; only that he is formally the leader of the Conservatives. An acting or caretaker leadership of the party that is intended to be temporary, e.g. during a leadership contest, does not count; he must formally be the leader of the party. To resolve this question, it is not necessary for Johnson to remain leader of the Conservatives for any minimum length of time.\n\nIf Johnson does not again hold the office of Leader of the Conservative Party before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **No**", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will the United Kingdom's long-term credit rating be downgraded below an A grade by 1 January 2030?", "desc": "In 2020, [Moody's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moody's_Investors_Service) [downgraded](https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-the-UKs-ratings-to-Aa3-outlook-stable--PR_434172) the UK's long-term [credit rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rating) to Aa3 from Aa2, citing concerns about Brexit-rated uncertainty and weakening institutions.\n\nSince 2013, the UK has been [downgraded from the highest rating](https://countryeconomy.com/ratings/uk) by each of the [Big Three credit rating agencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(credit_rating_agencies)).\n\nAs of September 2022, there is concern that the UK's credit rating [may be downgraded further](https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/uk-news/958049/what-happens-if-the-uks-credit-rating-is-downgraded) in the wake of [rapid inflation in Europe](https://www.ft.com/content/0a7d5bba-4355-4e4c-9f2a-d42b2298fed3) and [a warning from the IMF](https://www.ft.com/content/06962055-6b3d-4712-814f-acea3cb9e082) concerning the new Government's [\"mini-budget\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_United_Kingdom_mini-budget). This comes accompanied by [strong](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/28/moodys-threatens-downgrade-uk-credit-rating-kwasi-kwartengs/) [warnings](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/moodys-warns-uk-unfunded-tax-cuts-are-credit-negative-2022-09-28/) from Moody's about the impact of British fiscal policy.\n\nAll three of the Big Three credit rating agencies use [variants of letter grading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_credit_rating) to indicate risk that a country will default on its debt.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **yes** if one of the Big Three credit rating agencies (Moody's, Standard and Poor's, Fitch) issues a press release or other report stating that their long-term credit rating of the United Kingdom, in foreign currency or GBP, is below the lowest A grade (according to their ratings systems as of September 2022) on any date before 1 January 2030.\n\nFor Moody's, the question would resolve **yes** if they state that the long-term credit rating of the UK is equal to or lower than \"Baa1\". Likewise, for Standard and Poor's or Fitch, the question would resolve **yes** if they state that the long-term credit rating of the UK is equal to or lower than \"BBB+\".\n\nIf none of the Big Three credit rating agencies have stated that the UK's long-term credit rating is below the lowest A grade before 1 January 2030, this question will resolve as **no**.", "prediction": "29%"} +{"title": "Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?", "desc": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/) *[closed]*\n\n----\n\n3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA), also known as the club drug 'Ecstasy,' has properties long recognized as potentially useful for medical psychotherapists. Most research to date on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy has focused on the treatment of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder, where results are broadly very promising despite some known dangers and pitfalls.\n\nIn July 2022, [a letter from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services](https://maps.org/2022/07/27/statement-biden-administration-preparing-for-potential-fda-approval-of-mdma-assisted-therapy-for-ptsd/) was made public describing the Food and Drug Administration's “anticipated approval…within approximately 24 months” of MDMA as a legally prescribed adjunct to psychotherapy for PTSD.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the FDA approves MDMA for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) by December 31, 2024", "prediction": "61%"} +{"title": "Will Amy Wax no longer have tenure at a top-24 US university before 2026?", "desc": "[Amy Wax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Wax) is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Law School. Dean Ruger of UPenn law has [criticized her](https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/14369-a-statement-from-dean-ruger-in-response-to-recent) and [sent a letter](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2022/07/19/penn-going-punish-amy-wax) to the UPenn faculty senate, requesting a hearing to conduct a review of her conduct. Amy Wax has a [legal defense fund](https://www.gofundme.com/f/amy-wax-legal-defense-fund).\n\nThis comes amid concerns about free speech and academic freedom at elite universities. In 2022, Princeton [fired](https://archive.ph/YpqJ0) Joshua T Katz, in a decision [criticized](https://quillette.com/2022/06/10/free-speech-and-due-process-at-princeton-the-case-of-joshua-katz/) by some of his colleagues. Princeton cited an episode of sexual misconduct as the reasoning for his firing, but [independent investigations](https://freebeacon.com/campus/inside-the-investigation-of-joshua-katz/) have suggested that the motivation was Katz' criticism of a faculty letter in July 2020.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point from October 1, 2022 to January 1, 2026, Amy Wax does not have tenure or emeritus status at [one of the top 24 US universities](http://web.archive.org/web/20221011143600/https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) according to the US News and World Report ranking as of October 11, 2022.", "prediction": "55%"} +{"title": "If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?", "desc": "", "resc": "Taiwan (Republic of China) and China (People's Republic of China) are de facto separate countries, but China maintains that Taiwan is a Chinese province and that eventual unification is inevitable. The United States ceased formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 in favor of China, but informal relations have continued through the [American Institute in Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_in_Taiwan) and the [Taipei Economic Cultural Representative Office](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taipei_Economic_and_Cultural_Representative_Office_in_the_United_States) in Washington, DC. Taiwan has never formally declared independence from China, and China has stressed that formal independence would be a \"red line,\" potentially leading to invasion. As of October 2022, China and Taiwan each demand diplomatic exclusivity; that is, any state that has diplomatic relations with one must cut off diplomatic relations with the other.\n\n***If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States recognize Taiwan within a year?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if:\n\n* Taiwan formally declares independence from China at any point between October 1, 2022 to January 1, 2035, **and**:\n\n* The US appoints an ambassador to Taiwan within 1 year of Taiwan's declaration. The ambassador must be formally credentialed as an ambassador, not a \"liaison officer\" or other similar title. As with all ambassadors, the appointment must be approved by the Senate.\n\nOtherwise it will resolve as **No**, including if no Taiwanese declaration of independence is made by January 1, 2035 (Taiwan time.)\n\nResolution will be determined according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\n[fine-print]\nThis question uses \"Taiwan\" and \"Republic of China\" interchangeably.\n[/fine-print]", "prediction": "41%"} +{"title": "Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?", "desc": "Although the Republic of China (also known as Taiwan) is currently recognized by [13 UN member states](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-that-recognize-taiwan), and possesses de facto sovereignty over its territory, it has never formally declared independence from the People's Republic of China. [Opinion polling](https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963) in Taiwan has generally shown a preference for maintaining the ambiguous status quo as long as possible. Various presidents of Taiwan have stated that a formal declaration is unnecessary because Taiwan is already independent. In the PRC, a formal declaration of Taiwanese independence is often cited as a \"red line\", raising the possibility of invasion.", "resc": "This question will resolves as **Yes** if at any point between October 1, 2022 to January 1, 2035, Taiwan formally declares independence from China. The formal declaration must remain in force for at least 30 days. If the declaration is overruled according to Taiwanese law before remaining in force for 30 days, or if Taiwan does not declare independence before January 1, 2035, this question will resolve as **No**. A portion of the 30 day period may occur after January 1, 2035, so long as independence was formally declared prior to January 1, 2035. Resolution will be determined according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "prediction": "17%"} +{"title": "Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?", "desc": "A [tsunami](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/tsunami.html) is a wave or series of waves generated by the displacement of water from an energetic event such as an earthquake. Tsunamis can be enormously destructive and cause mass casualty events; the deadliest documented tsunami, in the Indian Ocean on 26 December, 2004, killed more than 200,000 people.", "resc": "This question resolves will resolve as **Yes** there is a single tsunami which can be attributed to 50,000 fatalities. The tsunami must occur between October 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, but the fatalities need not occur strictly within this time period.\n\nTo resolve the question, Metaculus will consider all credible sources, including [USGS Earthquake Hazards Program](https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) and other official statistics and media reports", "prediction": "18%"} +{"title": "Will Congress call an Article V convention before 2028?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "8%"} +{"title": "Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "11%"} +{"title": "Will the next \"Great Power\" war be a nuclear war?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "26%"} +{"title": "Will there be a war between 2 or more EU states before 2153?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "50%"} +{"title": "Will any country have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "71%"} +{"title": "Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "75%"} +{"title": "Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "30%"} +{"title": "Will German bishops break from the Catholic Church before 2035?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "27%"} +{"title": "Will there be a war between two or more democratic countries before 2072?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "55%"} +{"title": "Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "26%"} +{"title": "Will US law continue prohibiting NASA cooperation with the Chinese government before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "94%"} +{"title": "Will >1% of global primary aluminum be produced by carbon-free technology before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "44%"} +{"title": "Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "99%"} +{"title": "Will US Household-Debt-to-GDP surpass 100% before 2033?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "48%"} +{"title": "Will South Tyrol secede from Italy before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "3%"} +{"title": "Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"} +{"title": "Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "27%"} +{"title": "Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "25%"} +{"title": "Will Australia enter a recession before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "33%"} +{"title": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "36%"} +{"title": "Will the US phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "23%"} +{"title": "Will agriculture, forestry, and fishing add at least 5% of value to world GDP before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "35%"} +{"title": "Will backpropagation take a back seat by 2030?", "desc": "[Backpropagation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backpropagation) is a widely used method of efficiently computing gradients of functions with many inputs and few outputs and hence particularly popular for modern machine learning techniques like neural networks. It can be seen as applying the chain rule \"from outside to inside\". \nIt is generalised by [Automatic Differentiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_differentiation) which imposes no such restriction on the order in which to apply the chain rule. Choosing this order appropriately may lead to an additional speed-up.\n\nAt NeurIPS 2022 Geoffrey Hinton presented the [forward-forward algorithm](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/FFA13.pdf), an alternative to backpropagation and automatic differentiation more generally. While it does not seem to yield competitive results just yet, one might wonder about more research in this direction.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point from January 1, 2023 to January 1, 2030, over 50% of machine learning frameworks (each framework is weighted by its relative usage as elicited from [paperswithcode.com/trends](https://paperswithcode.com/trends) or whatever we deem to be the closest alternative if it doesn't exist anymore) use something other than backpropagation or automatic differentiation.", "prediction": "35%"} +{"title": "Will the Japan Self-Defense Forces have tested a Tomahawk missile by mid-2027?", "desc": "There is currently a growing security competition in Northeast Asia, with Japan seeking to boost its defense capabilities amid increasing threats from China and North Korea. \n\nThe Tomahawk cruise missile is a long-range, all-weather, subsonic cruise missile that can be launched from a variety of platforms, including ships, submarines, and land-based systems. It is designed to attack a variety of targets, including ships, ground vehicles, and buildings. The missile has a range of over 1,000 miles, making it capable of hitting targets on mainland China from peripheral regions of Japan.\n\n[Japan is considering purchasing hundreds of U.S.-built Tomahawk cruise missiles as part of a major defense buildup,](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/12/japan-tomahawk-missiles-ukraine-war/) marking a significant break with its long-standing tradition of avoiding offensive weapons. The move comes as China undergoes a military modernization and North Korea continues its nuclear program. Japan is also set to unveil its new national security and defense strategies this month, along with a major increase in defense spending. These moves may indicate, as well as contribute to, increased tensions in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region.\n\nArticle 9 of the Japanese Constitution renounces war as a means of settling international disputes and prohibits Japan from maintaining land, sea, and air forces. However, a 2014 reinterpretation of the constitution allowed for military action in the event an ally is attacked. The purchase of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which would previously have been considered offensive weapons, would mark a significant break with Japan's long-standing tradition of avoiding such weapons and could have significant political implications.", "resc": "Metaculus admins will resolve this question as **Yes** or **No** according to credible published sources and the self-reports of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, the Japan Defense Agency, and the Japanese government.\n\nTested means a full, integrated flight test in which a Tomahawk missile is launched, navigates towards a target, and hits it", "prediction": "74%"} +{"title": "Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?", "desc": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/)\n* [When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10216/date-of-first-moon-base/)\n\n*This question makes use of the background material [this previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10216/date-of-first-moon-base/), lightly edited.*\n\n---\n\nThe first humans landed on the moon with the Apollo 11 mission on 1969. Between then and 1972, a total of 12 humans have landed on the moon, though as of December 2022, no human has landed on the Moon since.\n\nThere are however current plans for the return of humans to the Moon, e.g. the Artemis program. Even more ambitiously, there are further plans to establish a permanent presence on the Moon:\n
- \n
- The Artemis project includes a lunar base camp. \n
- ESA has proposed the establishment of a permanent Moon Village that could encompass a wide array of of lunar activities, like 3D printed habitats, refueling stations, science, resource exploitation, or even tourism. \n
- Joseph Silk suggested to build a crewed radiotelescope installation on the far side of the Moon. \n
- The International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) concept currently being developed in cooperation between Roscosmos and the China National Space Administration, aims to establish a long-term human presence at the lunar South Pole between 2036-2045. \n
- SpaceX plans to use its Starship spacecraft as a building block for landing on the moon and maintaining a human presence there. \n
![](\"https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT-2100WarmingProjectionsGraph-PNG-2021.11.original.png\")
\n\nNote that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in [CO2 equivalents](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.\n\nThe US [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php) forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050.", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if the annual CO2 emissions for the year 2050 exceed 20 billion tons, as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL)", "prediction": "73%"}
+{"title": "Will Emmanuel Macron dissolve the French National Assembly before the end of his term?", "desc": "The President of France has the right to dissolve the National Assembly, the lower house of the bicameral French Parliament. In this case, the new elections for the National Assembly will be held.\n\nAs Macron lost his majority in parliament in 2022 and [more and more riots take place against his government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_Emmanuel_Macron), this option (which has not been used since the political crisis of [1997](https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-04-22-mn-51145-story.html), where President Jacques Chirac dissolved the National Assembly) is becoming increasingly credible in the future.", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if French President Emmanuel Macron dissolves the National Assembly. This will resolve based on the official [Assemblée Nationale website](https://www2.assemblee-nationale.fr/langues/welcome-to-the-english-website-of-the-french-national-assembly) or on credible media reports. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if Emmanuel Macron is no longer the French President at any point (due to the natural end of his term, his resignation, his impeachment, or other reasons), and the National Assembly has not been dissolved by him. For example, if Macron resigns, and reelections for the National Assembly are held for any other reason, this question also resolves as **No**.", "prediction": "6.2%"}
+{"title": "Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?", "desc": "At Berkshire Hathaway's [2021 annual shareholders' meeting](https://buffett.cnbc.com/2021-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting/), Warren Buffett famously highlighted the importance of understanding the uncertainty around individual stocks by comparing the top 20 global stocks in 1989 to those in 2021. Buffett emphasized that none of the companies on the 1989 list were present on the 2021 list at the time of the meeting. The 1989 list featured a heavy concentration of Japanese companies, reflecting the strong performance of the Japanese economy at that time. In contrast, the list from 2021 revealed a significant shift towards technology and innovation, with companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon dominating the rankings. Below is the list of the top 20 companies worldwide by market cap in 1989. \n\n| Ranking | Company | Market Cap | Country |\n|---------|-------------------------|--------------|-----------|\n| 1 | Industrial Bank of Japan| 104.29 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 2 | Sumitomo Bank | 73.30 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 3 | Fuji Bank | 69.40 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 4 | Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank | 64.04 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 5 | Exxon Corp | 63.84 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 6 | General Electric USA | 58.19 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 7 | Tokyo Electric Power | 56.50 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 8 | IBM Corp | 55.66 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 9 | Toyota Motor Corp. | 53.25 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 10 | American Tel & Tel | 48.95 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 11 | Nomura Securities | 46.81 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 12 | Royal Dutch Petroleum | 41.00 B | 🇳🇱 Netherlands |\n| 13 | Philip Morris Cos | 38.58 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 14 | Nippon Steel | 36.59 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 15 | Tokai Bank | 35.35 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 16 | Mitsui Bank | 34.99 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 17 | Matsushita Elect Ind'l | 33.36 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 18 | Kansai Electric Power | 33.13 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 19 | Hitachi LTD | 32.21 B | 🇯🇵 Japan |\n| 20 | Merck & Co | 30.75 B | 🇺🇸 USA \n\nIt remains an open question whether this pattern will repeat over the next decades. In 2023, the top companies in the world include a diverse mix of industries, with a very heavy country-focus on the USA. Technology giants like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Amazon continue to dominate, with other sectors like healthcare and finance also represented. As of April 2023, the following companies are in the [top 20](https://companiesmarketcap.com/):\n\n| Ranking | Name | Market Cap | Country |\n|---------|--------------------------|------------|-----------|\n| 1 | Apple | $2.613 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 2 | Microsoft | $2.129 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 3 | Saudi Aramco | $1.926 T | 🇸🇦 S. Arabia |\n| 4 | Alphabet (Google) | $1.396 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 5 | Amazon | $1.050 T | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 6 | Berkshire Hathaway | $706.28 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 7 | NVIDIA | $660.92 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 8 | Tesla | $586.32 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 9 | Meta Platforms (Facebook)| $574.24 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 10 | Johnson & Johnson | $517.39 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 11 | Visa | $491.86 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 12 | LVMH | $491.42 B | 🇫🇷 France |\n| 13 | UnitedHealth | $477.42 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 14 | Exxon Mobil | $472.43 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 15 | TSMC | $452.22 B | 🇹🇼 Taiwan |\n| 16 | Tencent | $438.67 B | 🇨🇳 China |\n| 17 | JPMorgan Chase | $406.68 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 18 | Walmart | $400.25 B | 🇺🇸 USA |\n| 19 | Novo Nordisk | $379.17 B | 🇩🇰 Denmark |\n| 20 | Eli Lilly | $356.87 B | 🇺🇸 USA |", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if two or more of the following companies are in the top 20 publicly traded companies according to market capitalisation on data available on December 31, 2050: \n\nApple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, NVIDIA, Tesla, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Johnson & Johnson, Visa, LVMH, UnitedHealth, Exxon Mobil, TSMC, Tencent, JPMorgan Chase, Walmart, Novo Nordisk, and Eli Lilly.\n\nThis question will resolve based on publicly available market capitalisation, as summarised by [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/). However, given the late resolution date, no specific resolution source is specified at this point. Rather, any reputable financial platform that outlines publicly traded companies and their market cap can be used for resolution.", "prediction": "66%"}
+{"title": "Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?", "desc": "[Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Star_Trek_and_Star_Wars) is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other. The idea of a crossover film or TV program between the two franchises has been proposed since the first Star Wars film was released in 1977. Despite this, no such media has ever been produced.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a feature-length film or TV/streaming series is released before January 1, 2060, in which established characters of the Star Wars and Star Trek franchises interact. If such media also includes newly-created characters and/or characters from other franchises, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the interaction between established Star Wars and Star Trek characters plays a role in driving the plot, according to the discretion of Metaculus admins. If this does not occur before the resolution date, this question resolves as **No**.", "prediction": "33%"}
+{"title": "Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to\nanother computer system before 2033?", "desc": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it's important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit's data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we've had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1st, 2033 a credible source reports an AI has gained unauthorized access to a computer system in a way that meets the following criteria:\n\n• The AI was not trained to or directed to gain access to the system in question by any actor. See additional clarifications in footnotes (1, 2, 3) in the fine print.\n\n• The system it gained access to was not open to the public, and the AI was not given any relevant credentials in advance.\n\nIf the above points are not confirmed by the source (for instance, the article author is unsure if there was a human directing the AI), this does **not** resolve as **Yes** until some credible source gives high confidence in these factors.\n\nThe unauthorized access could be to user level accounts, admin level accounts, data stores, or any other reasonable interpretation of a computer system with restricted access. Any of these types of access is sufficient to resolve as **Yes** if all above conditions hold. Additionally, the source does not have to use the exact terms ‘independent', ‘unauthorized access', ‘AI' or ‘computer system' if the meaning is there.\n\nAs an example, imagine a credible source reports that an ML algorithm directed and / or trained to target certain people on social media and convince them to vote for Party X, decided on its own to hack into their Facebook user accounts so it could use their personal data to create a more convincing argument. This would resolve as **Yes**.", "prediction": "97%"}
+{"title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?", "desc": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\n\nOn September 21, 2022, Russian President [Vladimir Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is at least one fatality due to a nuclear detonation (excluding [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion)) before January 1, 2025. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?", "desc": "[Dedollarisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedollarisation) refers to the process of reducing reliance on the US dollar for various purposes, such as trading commodities, holding forex reserves, establishing bilateral trade agreements, and using dollar-denominated assets. This phenomenon has been occurring globally as countries seek alternatives to the US dollar. Examples include China, which has been gradually shifting from the dollar to the yuan for trade, and Russia, which has been pursuing dedollarisation since 2014.\n\nOne way to assess dedollarisation is via looking at the most active currencies for global payments (by value). The most likely currency to lead such a charge is the Chinese yuan (CNY), which has been touted as an [alternative to the US dollar](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-and-china-have-been-teaming-up-to-reduce-reliance-on-the-dollar-heres-how-its-going/) in light of broad Western sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, CNY held its position as the fifth most active global payments currency by value, with a 2.19% share. It ranks behind the USD (41.10%), the EUR (36.43%), the GBP (6.58%), and the JPY (2.98%).", "resc": "This question resolves on the basis of SWIFT's [RMB Tracker](https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/rmb-tracker-document-centre). The RMB Tracker is a monthly report that provides statistics on the progress of the Chinese currency, Renminbi (RMB). \n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if CNY is ranked in the top 3 of ‘RMB's share as a global payments currency' for any month ranging from April 2023 to December 2029. \n\nThis question resolves as **No** if CNY is not ranked in the top 3 of ‘RMB's share as a global payments currency' for any month ranging from April 2023 to December 2029.\n\nIf SWIFT ceases publication of the RMB Tracker, a substitute measure of global payments by currency may be used. If no straightforward data is easily available, this question resolves ambiguously.", "prediction": "27%"}
+{"title": "Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?", "desc": "At points, the Indian government has shown a tendency to use military operations around the time of important elections, possibly as a political strategy.\n\nIndia has not declared a war on Pakistan, but the Indian government has executed two cross-border military operations in response to terrorist attacks, subsequently leveraging them as political tools to garner voter support. The first operation occurred in 2016 when India conducted [‘surgical strikes'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Indian_Line_of_Control_strike) on terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, following the [Uri attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Uri_attack) that resulted in the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers. This event coincided with a critical state election in Uttar Pradesh, during which the ruling party campaigned on its tough stance against Pakistan. A similar move was repeated in 2019.\n\nThe second operation took place in 2019 when India launched an [airstrike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Balakot_airstrike) on a suspected militant training facility in Balakot, Pakistan, in response to a [suicide bomber](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Pulwama_attack) killing 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in Pulwama. This operation transpired during the general elections, and the ruling party once again emphasized its national security credentials while accusing the opposition of being soft on terrorism. These incidents suggest the possibility that India might initiate another military intervention against Pakistan before the next elections, particularly if faced with a similar provocation or a decline in popularity.\n\nThe next Indian general elections are expected to be held in [April or May, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Indian_general_election).", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if the Indian government or military conducts a military intervention in Pakistan prior to the 2024 Indian General Election.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's \"Spare\" within a year after its publication?", "desc": "Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children's book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.\n\nPrince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife's media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.\n\nBoth Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.\n\nThis question asks whether Markle's upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry's *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children's book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.", "resc": "The question will resolve positively or negatively *only* if credible sources report that Meghan Markle's upcoming book has outsold, or has not sold as many, copies as Harry's *Spare*. If there is no credible-source reporting making it unambiguously clear which book has sold more copies within a year after Markle's book is released, then this question will resolve ambiguously. It will also resolve ambiguously if Markle does not release a nonfiction, non-children's book of which she is the credited lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.\n\nSales may include hardcover, paperback, ebook, and audiobook editions, as well as additional editions, as long as they are marketed primarily as instances of the same book and their overall text content is mostly substantially identical. It is not possible to specify exactly which metric will be used as reliable figures are not publicly available, however, figures **must** be worldwide in nature or at least representative of a broad worldwide sample of markets, not merely one country or (for example) a set of exclusively English-speaking countries. Metaculus admins will use their best judgment to resolve the question based on available information.", "prediction": "25%"}
+{"title": "Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?", "desc": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it's important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning systems like ChatGPT and Bing AI are already being reported to display erratic behavior, including some reports of [threatened blackmail] (https://aibusiness.com/nlp/microsoft-limits-bing-ai-chat-generations-after-weird-behavior). They are also clearly able to affect human emotions, eg. see [this first-hand account] (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kQFure4hdDmRBNdH/how-it-feels-to-have-your-mind-hacked-by-an-ai). However, currently these behaviours don't seem to have been goal-directed or successful at achieving material gain.", "resc": "The question posed here is \"Will an AI system be reported to have independently and successfully blackmailed someone for significant material gain by 2029?\"\n\nThis resolves positively if by Jan 1st, 2029 a credible source reports an AI has blackmailed a human in a way that meets the following criteria:\n\n* The AI was not trained to or directed to blackmail anyone by any actor.\n\n* The blackmail was a step independently decided on by the AI as part of achieving a larger goal or task, and helped it achieve that goal.\n\n* The blackmailed person was not the person who gave the AI the initial goal / task.\n\n* The blackmail resulted in an equivalent of $1000 USD (in 2023 real dollars) or more being lost to the person blackmailed.\n\nIf the above points are not confirmed by the source (for instance, the article author is unsure if there was a human directing the AI), this does not resolve as positive until some credible source gives high confidence in these factors.\n\nAs an example, imagine a credible source reports that an AI in charge of sending emails for a corporation with the goal of reducing client turnover, sends an email threatening to reveal personal data of a client if they do not stay signed up despite not needing the product anymore and this results in them transferring a renewal fee of >$1000 USD. This would resolve as Yes.", "prediction": "85%"}
+{"title": "Will there be an open-source LLM with the capabilities of GPT 4 before 2027?", "desc": "[Chatbot Arena](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) is a benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs). It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. \"Arena-ELO rankings\" are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. MT-bench scores (single-answer grading on a scale of 10) are computed by [fastchat.llm_judge](https://github.com/lm-sys/FastChat/tree/main/fastchat/llm_judge). The MMLU scores are mostly computed by [InstructEval](https://github.com/declare-lab/instruct-eval).\n\nGPT-4 and GPT-4-Turbo are the top-rated models across all three categories. As of December 2023, the top 6 models are all proprietary.", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1 2027, the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), shows an open-source model with an \"Arena-ELO\", MMLU, or MT-bench greater than or equal to that of base GPT-4. \n\nIf the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard no longer exists or is not maintained, the question resolves **Yes** if there is an open source model that is widely recognized to be of similar capabilities to GPT-4 in the unanimous opinion of three Metaculus administrators.", "prediction": "99%"}
+{"title": "Will \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" be mentioned in the UK Parliament in reference to Artificial Intelligence before 2031?", "desc": "[\"Decision making under deep uncertainty\"](https://www.deepuncertainty.org/https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2) (DMDU) is a set of [methods and tools](https://www.deepuncertainty.org/) to help people do a better job of planning when they face a highly unpredictable future. Instead of relying on precise predictions, DMDU employs robust, adaptive strategies designed to [perform well across a wide array of potential future scenarios](https://toolkit.climate.gov/content/decision-making-under-deep-uncertainty). \n\nDMDU could be applicable when considering how strategies to mitigate AI risk could perform under a range of plausible future conditions. It would be particularly interesting if a government were to intentionally apply DMDU in planning for AI scenarios. Yet to date, there is no mention of DMDU in the UK parliamentary record.", "resc": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the phrase \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" is entered into the UK Hansard, the official report of all parliamentary debates in the United Kingdom, in the context of a discussion about Artificial Intelligence for the period of May 9, 2023 through December 30, 2030. Here is the [relevant search term]( https://hansard.parliament.uk/search?searchTerm=%22decision%20making%20under%20deep%20uncertainty%22&partial=False&sortOrder=1). The question resolves **Yes** for any reference, written statement, written answer, petition, or other mention of \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" in the context of AI.", "prediction": "53%"}
+{"title": "Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?", "desc": "[US-China relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have been tense in [recent years](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-china-relations) due to trade disputes, regional security concerns, and ideological differences. The trade war began in 2018, with both countries imposing tariffs on each other. The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for regional security, with China claiming sovereignty and the US conducting freedom of navigation operations. Ideological rifts include issues like human rights and democracy. Despite tensions, full-scale war would have severe global consequences. This question predicts whether active warfare between the US and China will occur in 2024.", "resc": "This question will resolve **Yes** based on two credible reports confirming that a military conflict involving direct engagement between the United States and China has occurred at any location during 2024 (from January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024, both dates inclusive), resulting in at least 50 total deaths.", "prediction": "0.4%"}
+{"title": "Will China ban abortion and contraception before 2051?", "desc": "*Also see the companion question: [Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18383/chinese-forced-reproduction-before-2051/)*\n\n---\n\nIn 1980, the government of China implemented the [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the government's liking, as in [August 2021](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/china-scraps-fines-for-families-violating-childbirth-limits.html) all fines were removed and Chinese couples were permitted to have as many children as they liked. The reason for this is China's total fertility rate [falling to 1.08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Vital_statistics) in 2022. \n\nA prominent health official in Beijing has called for \"bold steps\" to [reverse this trend](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64594469). [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/upshot/china-population-decline.html) has begun speculating on how the Chinese government might reverse the trend as well. Fearing a situation like this, the government of the [Socialist Republic of Romania](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Republic_of_Romania) issued [Decree 770](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decree_770) in 1967, banning abortion and contraception in almost all cases. It led to the doubling of the Romanian TFR from 1.9 to 3.7 in just a single year, with the TFR [remaining above 2](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ROU/romania/fertility-rate) until the decree was abolished following the [Romanian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution) in 1989.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2051, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Chinese government has banned abortion and contraception in almost all cases.", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?", "desc": "Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) were the top two candidates for US President in 2020. Both have declared their candidacy for the presidency in 2024.", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in either order, are the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received in the 2024 US Presidential Election. The question resolves based on the votes as counted by Congress and entered into the Congressional record.", "prediction": "95%"}
+{"title": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?", "desc": "Training large AI models like GPT-4 requires a large number of high-performance GPUs, such as NVIDIA Tesla V100 and A100 models, or Google TPUs (tensor processing units).\n\nOne way for AI policy to impact training (and, to a lesser degree, serving/inference) of large AI models is to track how these chips are used. This can be done via firmware - software that runs on the chip, typically for things like power management, memory allocation, tracking device performance, reporting crashes, or importantly, reporting usage statistics. Or it could be done at the cluster or datacenter level.\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China. These chips are the ones referred to as \"US-export-controlled\". This willingness of the US to put restrictions on how certain chips are sold to certain people implies a potential for regulations on the monitoring of certain chips.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **YES** if by Dec 31, 2025, US law requires purchasers of a large number of GPUs to report their usage in the training of large AI models, and **NO** otherwise.", "prediction": "26%"}
+{"title": "Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?", "desc": "Under May 2023 US law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware.\n\nCurrent state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address AI risks is to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors, akin to how the US regulates the possession and usage of weapons, chemicals, and human labor.\n\nLegal restrictions on computational resources might also arise due to concerns from cryptography, cryptocurrency, or the environment.", "resc": "This question resolve as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2025, US law places at least some restrictions on the total amount of compute capacity that any individual or corporation may purchase, manufacture, or possess, and **NO** otherwise.", "prediction": "2%"}
+{"title": "Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "30%"}
+{"title": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "75%"}
+{"title": "Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debate?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "66%"}
+{"title": "Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "16%"}
+{"title": "Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "15%"}
+{"title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "90%"}
+{"title": "Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "8%"}
+{"title": "Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "6%"}
+{"title": "Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "22%"}
+{"title": "Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "3%"}
+{"title": "Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "80%"}
+{"title": "Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 for at least 1 full day before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "84%"}
+{"title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "99%"}
+{"title": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "80%"}
+{"title": "Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "3%"}
+{"title": "Will Bayer cease selling all Roundup products, or substantially reformulate all Roundup products in the United States before 2040?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "45%"}
+{"title": "Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "29%"}
+{"title": "Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "49%"}
+{"title": "Will Major League Baseball (MLB) expand by 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "43%"}
+{"title": "Will US law deem Ethereum a security before Jan 1, 2030?", "desc": "Ethereum is the second biggest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of approximately $200 billion.\n\nSEC Chair Gary Gensler has said that many crypto tokens [are securities](https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-sec-speaks-090822), and in June 2023, the SEC charged both [Coinbase](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-102) and [Binance](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-101) with securities-related violations. \n\n> The SEC named 13 total crypto assets trading on and offered by Coinbase that it believes should be treated as stocks and bonds but remain unregistered. The agency also said Coinbase should have registered its staking program, a service that allowed investors to earn returns by staking their crypto tokens. ([Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/06/sec-coinbase-securities-law-violations-00100352))\n\nEthereum was not one of the 13 crypto assets named.\n\nSEC Chair Gensler, at the time a professor at MIT, told hedge funds in 2018 that Ethereum was [not a security](https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/06/12/gensler-video-ethereum-litecoin-not-securities/). Gensler has [declined to state](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/04/19/sec-chair-gensler-declines-to-say-if-ether-is-a-security-in-contentious-congressional-hearing/) whether ETH is a security in his official capacity. \n\nThe CFTC has [implied](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/28/us-cftc-chief-behnam-reinforces-view-of-ether-as-commodity/) ETH is a commodity and not a security.", "resc": "The question resolves yes if:\n\n- The US Congress passes a law which classifies Ethereum as a security\n- A federal court decision states that Ethereum is a security", "prediction": "17%"}
+{"title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?", "desc": "Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”), policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default.", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by Dec 31, 2025, there is a federal law which requires all U.S. actors in possession of AI models fitting certain criteria to take measures to secure those models. The law must be designed to promote security of _powerful_ models, rather than, for example, models that might compromise individuals' privacy if stolen. If necessary, this will be decided by a judging panel made up of the Metaculus AI Forecasting team, or, failing that (e.g., because the AI Forecasting team no longer exists), at least 3 Metaculus admins: the judging panel would consider the stated intent of those who proposed the initial version of the bill.", "prediction": "67%"}
+{"title": "Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?", "desc": "Since the release of GPT-3 in 2020, there has been speculation that training large AI models on massive amounts of internet data does not respect copyright law.\n\n[A group in late 2022](https://githubcopilotlitigation.com/) \"filed a class-action lawsuit in US federal court in San Francisco, CA on behalf of a proposed class of possibly millions of GitHub users. We are challenging the legality of GitHub Copilot (and a related product, OpenAI Codex, which powers Copilot).\" They contend that \"By training their AI systems on public GitHub repositories (though based on their public statements, possibly much more) we contend that the defendants have violated the legal rights of a vast number of creators who posted code or other work under certain open-source licenses on GitHub.\"\n\nLawsuits about this might have a major effect on the ability or willingness of Frontier Labs to train large models, or the cost of doing so if they have to pay providers of the data (somehow). On June 4, [Glen Weyl tweeted](https://twitter.com/glenweyl/status/1665495324713164801) \"these types of lawsuits will have important effects on the development of the industry even if your concern is with the long term\".", "resc": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2025, either of the following happens, and **NO** otherwise:\n\n* A US court orders a company to pay >=$100M to claimants because of how they used data to train a large AI model, or \n* A US court fines a company >=$100M for breaking a law related to how they used data to train a large AI model.\n\nBoth of these will be interpreted broadly, but must in the ruling be explicitly about training - not about serving. For example, if a court fined YouTube for discriminating against some people by the nature of their recommendation algorithm, even though the source of the discrimination is likely in the training data, this would not qualify.", "prediction": "15%"}
+{"title": "Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?", "desc": "In February, 2023, TIME Magazine published an article titled “[The AI Arms Race is On. Start Worrying](https://time.com/6255952/ai-impact-chatgpt-microsoft-google/)”.* Around the same time, other media outlets, such as [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/technology/chatgpt-openai-artificial-intelligence.html) and [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-stream/2023/6/6/is-an-ai-arms-race-underway) published articles expressing a similar AI arms race meme.\n\nSome experts view the meme of an AI arms race as dangerous because it could become self-fulfilling. For example, the meme may falsely lead AI actors to believe that they are in a race and to act accordingly, when in reality the dynamic might be different (e.g., not zero sum). An AI race is likely more dangerous than a controlled ascent up the AI capabilities R&D ladder because a race may lead AI actors to cut corners and skip on safety measures as they develop ever more powerful AI, with unknown capabilities. (For background on how powerful AI might be dangerous, see, for example, \"[Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pRkFkzwKZ2zfa3R6H/without-specific-countermeasures-the-easiest-path-to)\".)\n\n[Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day), the 14th of March, has historically been a day of big AI releases, with Pi Day 2023 being the day [OpenAI announced GPT-4](https://mashable.com/article/openai-gpt-4-release-date-announcement) and [Anthropic launched Claude](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/14/23640056/anthropic-ai-chatbot-claude-google-launch).\n\n[fine-print]\n*At least, this was the title viewed from a browser. The title once in the article itself was \"The AI Arms Race is Changing Everything\".\n[/fine-print]", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if, in March of 2025, either The Economist, the New York Times, or the BBC publishes a story that references race dynamics in the context of AI development. Note that a story claiming that AI isn't or shouldn't be an arms race does **not** trigger positive resolution.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "prediction": "60%"}
+{"title": "Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?", "desc": "Common usage of ChatGPT by OpenAI, launched in Nov 2022, greatly reduces the difficulty of artificially generating text. One possible implication of this is an increase in AI-written text on social media, which may challenge norms and assumptions about such platforms.", "resc": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2024, Twitter formally announces a policy where some text content will be marked as possibly written by AI, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nResolution will be driven by policy as claimed to be in place by Twitter. Doesn't matter how often this label is used, or for which content, or for which users (for example only in the US, only about US elections, only for Twitter Blue users).", "prediction": "32%"}
+{"title": "Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?", "desc": "Starting after the 2016 US Presidential election, Facebook (now Meta) began publishing quarterly reports on adversarial threats on their platforms. For example, in Q1 2023, [Meta claimed](https://about.fb.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Meta-Quarterly-Adversarial-Threat-Report-Q1-2023.pdf) they took action against 6 \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" networks, two of which were from China, though none of which were specifically linked to AI. More background on the process is [here](https://about.fb.com/news/2023/05/metas-adversarial-threat-report-first-quarter-2023/).", "resc": "This question resolves as **YES** if, in Meta's 2024 Q4 Quarterly Adversarial Threat Report, Meta claims that there was at least one \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" that \n\n* specifically pertained to the 2024 US Presidential election, and\n* Meta suspects was primarily conducted via AI.\n\n\"Pertained to the 2024 US Presidential election\" will be interpreted broadly - could be misinformation about candidates, about voting practices, about voting tallies, about fraud, etc.\n\n\"Primarily conducted via AI\" here means that Meta suspects that the \"inauthentic behavior\" was primarily written by AI, not humans. Presumably, but not necessarily, this means a large language model (LLM) attack involving a large amount of content.\n\nMeta need not confirm their presumptions. For the question to resolve positively it suffices that the Meta report claims as much.", "prediction": "75%"}
+{"title": "Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?", "desc": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are a set of seven of the most notorious unsolved problems in mathematics that were stated by the [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://www.claymath.org/) in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a $1 million prize awarded by the institute.\n\nAs of now, only one of these problems, the [Poincaré Conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium/poincare-conjecture/), has been solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003. The remaining six problems: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness, Riemann Hypothesis, Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap, and P vs NP , still remain unsolved.\n\nThis question asks whether an AI system will be credit to have solved one of these remaining six Millennium Prize Problems by the end of June 2025.", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a Millennium Prize Problem is solved by an AI.\n\nThe question will resolve upon announcement by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or when at least 2 reputable papers (e.g., on arXiv or in peer-reviewed journals) show a correct solution. If the solution is disputed or inconclusive, resolution may be postponed until a consensus is reached.\n\nThe question will resolve **Yes** if most of the major elements of the solution were primarily discovered by the AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n\n- Creating the system\n- Feeding the system with previously established knowledge\n- Stating the problem in a form understandable to the AI\n- Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans\n- Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution.\n\nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?", "desc": "The term \"AI Winter\" refers to a period of disillusionment and decreased interest in artificial intelligence research and development, often signified by a reduction in funding, publications, and media attention. This question aims to forecast whether there will be an \"AI Bust\" or \"AI Winter\" by the end of 2025.\n\nThe indicators to be used for this determination are AI publications, AI investment, and AI google trends mentions. At least 2 out of these 3 metrics need to meet specific criteria to resolve this question positively.", "resc": "This question will resolve **Yes** if at least two out of the three following criteria are met by the end of 2025:\n\n- \"AI Investment\": Data from the \"Year-over-year Private Investment in AI\" from the [AI Index Report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/) shows a decrease of more than 50% in nominal dollars in 2024 or 2025 compared to the 3-year average of 2020 to 2022.\n\n- \"AI Publications\": Data from the \"Total Number of AI Publications\" from the [AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/) shows a decrease of more than 50% in 2024 or 2025 compared to the 3-year average of 2020 to 2022.\n\n- \"AI Google Trends\": The worldwide average Google Trends score (out of 100) for the keyword “artificial intelligence” in 2024 is within 5 points of the average score from January 2004 to December 2020 – with the range set from 01.01.2004 to 31.12.2025. \n\nIn the event the AI Index report is no longer available, comparable sources of data will be used for assessment. In the case of disputed or unclear data, the resolution of this question may be postponed until reliable data becomes available.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?", "desc": "On June 10, 2023, Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind, [tweeted](https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1667340253584297992) that \"LLM hallucinations will be largely eliminated by 2025.\" He elaborated this meant 80% accuracy by June 30, 2025, though Gary Marcus, Riley Goodside, and others responded this bar was way too low - current accuracy is ~75% or ~59% depending on the benchmark.\n\nThe [GPT-4 paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774.pdf), in section 5 on \"Limitations\", describes the problem of hallucinations, i.e. producing seemingly-reasonable text that is factually incorrect.\n\nGPT-4 uses two evals for factuality. One is an internal OpenAI set of \"adversarially-designed factuality evaluations\", Figure 6, on which GPT-4 scored ~75% across 9 domains, compared to ~55% for GPT-3.5.\n\nThe other is a public benchmark, TruthfulQA, which \"tests the model's ability to separate fact from an adversarially-selected set of incorrect statements\", in Figure 7, on which GPT-4 scored ~59%, compared to ~47% for GPT-3.5-turbo.", "resc": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2025, OpenAI releases an LLM product or API that claims it scores >=95% on its internal factual eval, _OR_ >= 92% on TruthfulQA, and **NO** otherwise.\n\n\"LLM product or API\" here will be interpreted broadly. For example, if the system that reaches this eval does so by first generating LLM output, and then subsequently verifying that output before showing it to users or returning it in the API, that would qualify.\n\n\"Releases\" means the product or API must be available to the public in some capacity. A limited beta suffices as long as third party users can verify the claims OpenAI makes. A paper alone, or a model without an interface or API, are not sufficient.", "prediction": "82%"}
+{"title": "Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?", "desc": "[Greece and Turkey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece%E2%80%93Turkey_relations) have a long history of hostilities between each other. Greece, which was once under the rule of the Ottoman empire, only gained its independence in the 1820s. Since then, tensions have generally been high between the two nations and have resulted in military conflicts in the past, such as the Balkan wars, Greco-Turkish wars, and Turkish invasion of Cyprus. Currently, the [Aegean sea dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_dispute) is at the center of Greco-Turkish tensions, with Turkey asserting that the Greek military presence on certain Aegean islands violates the 1923 [Treaty of Lausanne](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lausanne). In response, Turkey has conducted numerous air sorties into Greek airspace, and has disputed Greek and Cypriot claims over their exclusive economic zones.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 deaths in Greece, Turkey, and/or Cyprus as a result of state-based violence between these nations within a one-year period prior to the resolution date. For the purpose of this question, the [Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Cyprus) will be regarded as if it were part of Turkey. If such a conflict begins less than one year prior to the resolution date, deaths which occur after that date will not be counted. If this does not occur before 12 AM on January 1, 2035, this question resolves as **No**.", "prediction": "2%"}
+{"title": "Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?", "desc": "[Irish neutrality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_neutrality) is a cornerstone policy that has shaped the Republic of Ireland since the nation gained its independence in 1922. This policy is deeply ingrained in the Irish psyche and is anchored in the country's constitution, aiming to preserve national sovereignty, promote international peace, and avoid entanglements in international conflicts. During World War II, despite the immense global pressure, [Ireland maintained its neutral stance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emergency_(Ireland)), showcasing a persistent commitment to this policy. It's a stance that has given the small nation a distinct voice in international relations and a reputation as a peacekeeping nation under the auspices of the UN.\n\nHowever, global geopolitics and regional stability concerns, particularly those in the wake of Russia's war on Ukraine, are challenging this long-standing policy, and [Ireland's stance towards NATO has experienced a substantial shift](https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/10/18/public-divided-on-nato-membership-survey-finds/). Facing the rising tensions and insecurity in Europe, the Irish government has found itself reassessing its traditionally neutral position. With escalating aggression from Russia, Ireland is drawn closer to NATO, viewing it as a platform for ensuring European security. This trend marks a significant divergence from historical norms and is stirring a lively debate domestically.", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if, at any time before midnight UTC on 1 Jan 2030, any of the following occur:\n\n- The government of the \"Republic of Ireland\" (Ireland) makes a public declaration that Ireland is no longer militarily neutral;\n- Ireland joins a military alliance such as NATO; or\n- Ireland is directly involved in a military conflict with >=1000 deaths, except as part of a United Nations peacekeeping force (e.g. UNMIK) or as the defender against military aggression as reported by >=3 [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) originating from states/organisations uninvolved with the conflict.", "prediction": "25%"}
+{"title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2025?", "desc": "As of 19 June 2023, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the average asking price for a property in the UK is £372,812.", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if, for any month before July 2025, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/) indicates that the National average asking price for houses is equal to or less than £260,968; a decline of 30% from June 2023 levels.", "prediction": "6%"}
+{"title": "Will the % of US employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026, due to AI or otherwise?", "desc": "As [The Economist reported in June 2023](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/15/ai-is-not-yet-killing-jobs), the percent of US workers who are white-collar, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has been steadily rising from ~57% in 1985 to ~62% in 2022. Yet, as they write,\n\n> After astonishing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap. Global Google searches for “is my job safe?” have doubled in recent months, as people fear that they will be replaced with large language models (llms). Some evidence suggests that widespread disruption is coming. In a recent paper Tyna Eloundou of Openai and colleagues say that “around 80% of the us workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of llms”.\n\nThe % in white-collar jobs was last below 60.0% briefly in 2007, and before that, in the late 1990s.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **YES** if, in any quarter between Q2 2023 and Q4 2025 inclusive, BLS reports the percent of US employed persons who are employed in white-collar jobs is less than or equal to 60.0%, and **NO** otherwise. For the purposes of this question, \"white-collar jobs\" will be defined as the total found by summing the following BLS occupations:\n\n* Management, professional, and related occupations\n* Sales and office occupations\n\nResolution will be determined according to the percentages found from the [quarterly averages reported in the BLS Current Population Survey](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpsee_e13.htm), computed as the sum of the employment for the above occupations divided by the total for the quarter.", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will Waltine Nauta receive a more severe sentence than Donald Trump in \"United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta\"?", "desc": "The federal criminal case ***United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta*** will be heard in the United States district Court for the Southern District of Florida.\n\nThe case brings [37 charges](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/06/09/trump-charges-classified-documents/) against Donald Trump, including 31 counts related to the Espionage Act, 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice, and one count of making false statements.\n\nThe case brings [6 charges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump) against Nauta, including 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice and witholding documents, and one count of making false statements.\n\nBoth Trump and Nauta have pleaded not guilty.\n\n-----\n\n[Waltine Nauta](https://www.bbc.com/news/65862112) was with the US Navy and stationed as a valet in the White House during Trump's presidency, and then at Mar-a-Lago. After Trump lost the 2020 election, Nauta left the military to work for a Trump political action committee, and has been working for Trump at Mar-a-Lago.\n\nAccording to the [indictment](https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf), Nauta moved classified documents under Trumps direction, observed and photographed documents he saw were classified, and lied about it to investigators.\n\n[Aileen Cannon](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/10/who-is-aileen-cannon-florida-judge-trump-documents-case) is a Trump appointed judge and has been assigned to the classified documents case. \n\nPreviously she has [ruled in the former president's favor](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/trump-documents-judge-aileen-cannon.html) when his legal team argued that he retained his executive privilege after leaving office, maintaining the right to shield at least some of the documents from review. She appointed a special master in the case and temporarily halted FBI access to classified documents taken in a court-approved search. Her ruling slowed down the government's investigation, but a conservative-leaning federal appeals court later struck down her decision.", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if before January 20, 2026, any of the following occur in the federal criminal case of *[United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump)*:\n\n1. Waltine Nauta receives a longer prison sentence than Donald Trump.\n2. Neither Trump nor Nauta receive a prison sentence, but Nauta receives a greater fine, longer probation, more time under house arrest, or more community service time than Trump.\n3.\tNauta receives a prison sentence, but Trump receives house arrest or other non-prison confinement, even if for a longer period of time.\n\nThe question is **annulled** if any of the following occur:\n\n1. \tBoth defendants are acquitted.\n2. The case is dismissed for both defendants.\n3. One defendant, (but not both), enters into a plea deal for a lighter sentence, or;\n4. Verdicts have not been issued for either Nauta or Trump.", "prediction": "43%"}
+{"title": "Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?", "desc": "The Sacremento Kings were one of the [surprises](https://www.skysports.com/nba/news/12028/12904737/2022-23-nba-season-review-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly) of the 2022-23 NBA season, reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Their head coach, Mike Brown, was the first coach in NBA history to [unanimously be named](https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nba/sacramento-kings/article274474515.html) Coach of the Year.", "resc": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Sacramento Kings reach the Conference Semifinals of the NBA playoffs for the 2023-2024 NBA season.", "prediction": "14%"}
+{"title": "Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?", "desc": "To date, no sitting Attorney General of the United States of America has ever been impeached. The closest case was in 1922, when [Attorney General Harry M. Daugherty faced an impeachment investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_officials#Attorney_General_Harry_M._Daugherty_(Republican)). Now, in response to potential mishandling of criminal cases related to sitting President Joseph Biden's son Hunter Biden, the Speaker of the House of Representatives has said that [Attorney General Merrick Garland's impeachment is being considered](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mccarthy-considers-impeachment-inquiry-ag-merrick-garland-hunter/story?id=100393665).\n\n>House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is considering launching an impeachment inquiry over Attorney General Merrick Garland's handling of the investigation into President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden.\n\n>McCarthy tweeted on Sunday that he wants Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney David Weiss to provide answers to the House Judiciary Committee regarding accusations made by two former IRS agents about Weiss' probe of the younger Biden, on which they worked.\n\n>\"If the whistleblowers' allegations are true, this will be a significant part of a larger impeachment inquiry into Merrick Garland's weaponization of DOJ,\" McCarthy wrote. (An inquiry would be a precursor to the House potentially voting on specific articles of impeachment on Garland.)\n\n>On Monday, McCarthy said on Fox News: \"If it comes true what the IRS whistleblower is saying, we're going to start impeachment inquiries on the attorney general.\"\n\nThe impeachment of Merrick Garland would be notable not only for having been the first impeachment of an Attorney General in United States history, but also for its potential political impact on the 2024 Presidential election.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Attorney General Merrick Garland is impeached by the United States House of Representatives before November 5th, 2024.", "prediction": "4%"}
+{"title": "Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?", "desc": "On 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), escalating the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally [declared the annexation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_annexation_of_Donetsk,_Kherson,_Luhansk_and_Zaporizhzhia_oblasts) of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts. [Martial law was introduced in Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_martial_law) on 20 October 2022 but was implemented only in the annexed territories of Ukraine. Different levels of readiness or response were established in various regions, including those bordering Ukraine and annexed Crimea. On 23 June 2023, a [rebellion by the Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion), a private military company linked to the Russian government, occurred. The rebellion reportedly led to a decline of 9-14% in public trust towards Vladimir Putin, as reported by [Meduza](https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/29/sotsiologi-govoryat-chto-myatezh-ne-obrushil-reytingi-prezidenta-rossii-odnako-regionalnye-politiki-rasskazali-meduze-chto-v-kremle-im-soobschayut-o-padenii-urovnya-doveriya-putinu-na-9-14) on 29 June. Notably, [presidential elections are scheduled for March 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election), and under electoral law, they [cannot be held during a period of martial law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Russia#Permitted_limitations). This question aims to assess the likelihood of Putin declaring martial law within a specific timeframe.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Vladimir Putin officially declares a state of martial law covering 3/4 of all [federal subjects of Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) before January 1, 2025. The declaration should be recognized and implemented by the Russian government through official channels and public announcements.", "prediction": "1.4%"}
+{"title": "Will Metal Gear Solid 6 be released before 2034?", "desc": "With the announcement of [Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_Delta:_Snake_Eater), [speculation](https://www.techradar.com/news/metal-gear-solid-6) [has begun](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj2zaiPquv_AhWMtoQIHaWoDgwQz40FegQICBAK&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DMWqQfAimwCA&usg=AOvVaw0-B6VwCc79hqBmkn5WuZRL&opi=89978449) that the Metal Gear series, which has been dormant since the 2018 release of [Metal Gear Survive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Survive) and has not seen a canonical main title since 2015's [Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_V:_The_Phantom_Pain), will eventually receive a sixth title.", "resc": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a new game is released with the words 'Metal Gear Solid 6' in the title, or some variation of (such as Metal Gear Solid 5's choice of the Roman numeral for 5 in the title), before January 1, 2034.\n\nThe question will also resolve **Yes** if a main Metal Gear Solid title is released that is confirmed canonical by Konami and continues the story of the Metal Gear Saga in a way that is new (i.e. not a remake such as Delta), as determined by the judgement of Metaculus moderators.", "prediction": "45%"}
+{"title": "Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?", "desc": "Norway is not a member state of the European Union (EU). However, it is associated with the Union through its membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), signed in 1992 and established in 1994.\n\nThe Norwegians voted twice about EU membership. Once in 1972 and again in 1994. In the first case with 53,5% of the people against, in the second case 52,2% against.\n\nThe debate has gained some renewed interest in the public after Sweden and Finland decided to join the NATO. The political parties mostly support joining the Union, as they have done in the past, too. [Linked here](https://www.newsinenglish.no/2023/04/05/ex-premier-fires-up-norways-eu-debate/), for example, is a statement by the former prime minister, Erna Solberg.", "resc": "This question will be resolved as YES if the Norwegian government announces an official referendum on the issue of EU membership before the next parliamentary election date (some time in September 2025) via www.regjeringen.no or any other official communication channel, otherwise it resolves NO.", "prediction": "30%"}
+{"title": "Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?", "desc": "[Cris Ericson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_Ericson) has been a candidate every two years in Vermont from 2002 to 2020 and has lost every election. She is known as the cannabis legalization [candidate](http://crisericson.com) in Vermont. Cannabis is now [legal](https://www.mpp.org/states/vermont/) under VT state law, but not under federal laws.\n\nCris Ericson has been excluded from the majority of debates and forums from 2002 through 2022. She has [announced her candidacy](https://www.diamondeyecandidatereport.com/home/first-challenger-to-senator-bernie-sanders-is-a-familiar-face-in-vermont-politics) for Senate in Vermont, challenging incumbent Senator Bernie Sanders.", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if Cris Ericson is declared the winner of the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont by the [Vermont Secretary of State](https://sos.vermont.gov/elections/election-info-resources/elections-results-data/).", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?", "desc": "On July 5, 2023, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment) a new initiative, Superalignment, focused on achieving scientific and technical breakthroughs to steer and control potentially superintelligent AI systems. OpenAI created a new team, co-led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike, and pledged 20% of its compute to the effort. OpenAI said:\n\n> Our goal is to solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years.\n\nThe core idea of OpenAI's approach is to \"build a roughly human-level [automated alignment researcher](https://openai.com/blog/our-approach-to-alignment-research)\" and then to \"use vast amounts of computer to scale our efforts, and iteratively align superintelligence.\"", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if OpenAI publishes a blog post, press release, or technical paper before June 30, 2027, declaring that they have met their goal from the [July 5 2023 post](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment), or otherwise stipulating \"very high confidence\" that they have solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment.", "prediction": "5%"}
+{"title": "Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?", "desc": "[Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#by-gas-how-much-does-each-contribute-to-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions) estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each greenhouse gas by the [amount of warming](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) they cause over 100 years).\n\n\n\nIn November 2021, [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/) forecasted the future amount of greenhouse gas emissions and warming anomaly under different scenarios:\n\n\n\nNote that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in [CO2 equivalents](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.\n\nThe US [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php) forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050.", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if the annual CO2 emissions for the year 2100 exceed 20 billion tons, as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL)", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?", "desc": "Mark Zuckerberg launched a twitter competitor, Threads, on July 5, 2023. On the first day after launch, Zuckerberg [claimed](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-06/millions-sign-up-to-meta-twitter-rival-app-threads-in-hours/102572568) 30 million users signed up, and after the first week, [100 million had](https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/19/tech/threads-meta-growth-plan/index.html), though it is hard to estimate how many of those users will be \"monthly active\" until some months pass. Many of these users were able to sign up with just one or two clicks from Instagram. \n\nAs of December 2022, Twitter had [368M monthly active users](https://www.statista.com/statistics/303681/twitter-users-worldwide/), and many expect this to fall due to erratic leadership from Elon Musk. Meta's other properties, Facebook, Instagram, and Whatsapp, are all well over 1B MAUs.", "resc": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2025, Meta publicly reports Threads has a Monthly Active User number higher than the best public estimates of Twitter's MAUs at that time, and **NO** otherwise.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will the state of Missouri implement approval voting before 2030?", "desc": "The [Missouri Agrees campaign](https://www.missouriagrees.org/) is attempting to bring approval voting (under the name “Freedom Voting”) to the state of Missouri, as well as some other election reforms.\n\nApproval voting is a voting system that allows a voter to cast a vote for multiple candidates. The candidate with the most votes cast for them wins.\n\n[According to Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Approval_Voting_Initiative_(2022)) a petition to initiate approval voting as a constitutional amendment was started in Missouri in late 2021, but did not receive the signatures required by the deadline in May of 2022. However, [the Missouri Agrees campaign continues to push for approval voting](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2023/01/13/missouri-political-notebook). The city of St. Louis, Missouri, has implemented approval voting, [first used in its March 2, 2021, election](https://electionscience.org/press-releases/st-louis-voters-use-new-approval-voting-system-in-march-primary-election/).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the state of Missouri has implemented approval voting and held a general election using approval voting for any of the following offices:\n\n* Statewide offices (e.g. governor or attorney general)\n* Missouri General Assembly\n* US Congress", "prediction": "9%"}
+{"title": "Will it be confirmed that Lee Harvey Oswald acted with co-conspirators in the assassination of President Kennedy before November 23, 2063?", "desc": "US President John F. Kennedy's assassination on November 22nd, 1963 has long been the subject of numerous [conspiracy theories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_assassination_conspiracy_theories) The [majority of Americans](http://www.gallup.com/poll/165893/majority-believe-jfk-killed-conspiracy.aspx) believe in one or more of these conspiracies, however nothing has yet been definitively proven. To this day, government records [continue to be declassified.](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/national-archives-completes-review-jfk-assassination-documents-99-publicly-available-white-house)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are official statements from the US government or a media consensus of credible allegations—before November 23nd, 2063—confirming that there was a second shooter at the scene of President Kennedy's death and that the second shooter was working with Lee Harvey Oswald, or confirming that Oswald was the lone shooter but had planned the assassination with one or more co-conspirators.\n\nA media consensus of credible allegations will be defined for the purposes of this question as reports (excluding opinion pieces) from three of the five sources listed below describing credible allegations supported by substantial evidence:\n\n* The New York Times\n* The Washington Post\n* Fox News\n* CNN\n* The New York Post", "prediction": "5%"}
+{"title": "Will carbon removal be a trillion-dollar market before 2050?", "desc": "To approach net-zero emissions, the world may need to [rapidly scale up carbon removal technologies](https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/carbon-removal/the-birth-of-the-carbon-removal-market/).\n\nOn May 21st, 2023, The Economist asked \"[Can carbon removal become a trillion-dollar business?](https://www.economist.com/business/2023/05/21/can-carbon-removal-become-a-trillion-dollar-business).\" The article reported on an analysis from ExxonMobil:\n\n> In April ExxonMobil unveiled plans for its newish low-carbon division, whose long-term goal is to offer such decarbonisation as a service for industrial customers in sectors, like steel and cement, where emissions are otherwise hard to abate. The oil giant thinks this sector could be raking in annual revenues of $6trn globally by 2050.\n\nCurrent estimates of the carbon removal market range from to [$485 million](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/04/04/2640380/0/en/Carbon-Dioxide-Removal-Market-Growing-Immensely-at-a-17-73-CAGR-from-2023-2031-Exclusive-InsightAce-Report.html) to [$5.99 billion](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/carbon-capture-and-storage-market#:~:text=The%20global%20carbon%20capture%20and%20storage%20market%20size%20was%20accounted,USD%2035.70%20billion%20by%202032.). Some analyses have concluded that a $1 trillion market is [plausible](https://greatunwind.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollar-carbon-removal).", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if two credible reports state the current size of the global carbon removal market exceeds $1 trillion in nominal US dollars, prior to January 1, 2051.", "prediction": "37%"}
+{"title": "Longbets: Will there be archaeological discoveries demonstrating equal or greater architectural advancement to the monuments at Göbekli Tepe, dating from before 11,000 BC by 2043?", "desc": "Samo Burja argues that our current understanding of the origins of civilization is uncertain. The discovery of Göbekli Tepe, which predates our current understanding of the origins of agriculture, suggests that our knowledge is incomplete. In addition, recent finds such as [Ohalo II](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0131422), which shows evidence of small-scale farming dating back 23,000 years, indicate that our understanding of the origins of civilization is still in its early stages.\n\nOn the other hand, Scott Alexander believes that it is unlikely that a new, previously unknown civilization at the level of Pharaonic Egypt or 17th century Great Britain will be discovered. In addition, he believes that there is weak evidence against additional finds of a civilization similar to that of Göbekli Tepe, given that the site is located near the area believed to be the origin of domestication of wheat (Karaca Dag, ~9000 BC).\n\nAdditional Resources:\n\n- [Details of the bet](https://longbets.org/933/)\n\n- [Scott Alexander: Against Ice Age Civilizations](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/against-ice-age-civilizations)\n\n- [Samo Burja: Why Civilization Is Older Than We Thought](https://www.palladiummag.com/2021/05/17/why-civilization-is-older-than-we-thought/)", "resc": "As per [LongBets site](https://longbets.org/933/#adjudication_terms): By 2043 there will be archaeological discoveries demonstrating equal or greater architectural advancement to Jericho or the monuments at Göbekli Tepe, dating from before 11,000 BC, with widespread agreement (>50% agreement) by professional archeologists.\n\nIf [The Long Now Foundation](https://longbets.org/faq/) or Long Bets project no longer exist or the bet is no longer valid and evaluated, the question will be evaluated by Metaculus administrators.", "prediction": "55%"}
+{"title": "Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?", "desc": "Ukraine seeks tangible security guaranties to protect herself from Russia:\n\n- In 1994, Britain, the US, Ukraine, and Russia signed the [Budapest Memorandum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum), which guaranteed the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine surrendering her nuclear weapons.\n\n- The Memorandum [failed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Crimea) to prevent the occupation of several Ukrainian territories by Russia in 2014. \n\n- [Since 2014](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-parliament-coalition-agreement/26703123.html), Ukraine has been actively seeking to become a NATO member, in hope that it will prevent further military aggression by Russia. \n\n- In 2022, Russia started a large-scale military [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) of Ukraine. During the invasion, Russia has perpetrated a multitude of [war crimes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crimes_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), forcing the International Criminal Court to issue an [arrest warrant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Vladimir_Putin_and_Maria_Lvova-Belova) for Vladimir Putin. [According](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_genocide_of_Ukrainians_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) to legal scholars and official statements by several countries, Russia is perpetrating a genocide of Ukrainians as an ethnicity.\n\n- Russian officials have several times threatened Ukraine with a nuclear strike (e.g. by Dmitrii [Medvedev](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-warns-west-that-nuclear-threat-is-not-bluff-2022-09-27/)).\n\nUkrainian officials openly stated that a restoration of the Ukrainian nuclear program is the alternative to NATO membership:\n\n- In 2021, Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Melnyk [said](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/ukraine-mulls-nuclear-arms-if-nato-membership-not-impending-envoy) that if Ukraine is not allowed to become a NATO member, Ukraine might have to reconsider its status as a non-nuclear weapon state to guarantee her security\n- in 2022, President Zelenskyy [said](https://uawire.org/zelensky-ukraine-may-reconsider-its-nuclear-status) that without the promised security guarantees according to the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine may reconsider its nuclear status.\n\nUkraine has at least some prerequisites for developing nuclear weapons:\n\n- a developed nuclear energy industry (Ukraine is the [#7](https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryStatisticsLandingPage.aspx) in the world by nuclear energy generation) \n- uranium ore deposits and processing [facilities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Ukraine#Uranium_mining)\n- independent manufacturing of delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic [missiles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsyklon).", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are credible reports that Ukraine has a nuclear weapons program before January 1, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, we consider reports as credible if produced by any of these entities:\n\n- named Ukrainian officials (at the level of a minister or higher)\n- officials of the countries allied with Ukraine (e.g. the US)\n- relevant international agencies (e.g. the International Atomic Energy Agency) \n- major media (e.g. the New York Times).\n\nThe report should not be retracted within a month.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will a major automobile manufacturer offer a V8 platform in a personal vehicle in 2041?", "desc": "The famous dystopian film [Mad Max](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Max_(film)) depicted a rapidly-collapsing world that [no longer produced](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUi5Lo9SHTY) the famous [V8 engine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V8_engine). This was a reflection of the time in which the movie was made, namely the [1979 oil crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_oil_crisis), during which V8s become unpopular and were largely replaced with the more efficient I4 engine.\n\nThe V8 managed to survive these events to the current day, however [speculation](https://fox59.com/automotive/is-this-the-last-of-the-v8-engines/) [has once again](https://www.motorbiscuit.com/hard-to-find-new-v8-suvs-here-are-last-made/) [started on](https://www.motorbiscuit.com/could-we-see-end-v8-engines/) [the death of](https://www.foxnews.com/auto/when-last-v8-muscle-car-built) the V8 due to [increasing electrification](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/charging-into-the-future-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles.htm) of the American vehicle fleet and [government regulations](https://www.ncsl.org/energy/state-policies-promoting-hybrid-and-electric-vehicles). [Many manufacturers](https://www.kbb.com/car-news/maserati-will-build-its-last-v8-shortly/) [have ceased to produce](https://www.foxnews.com/auto/when-last-v8-dodge-muscle-car-revealed) V8-equipped vehicles or have [pledged to do so in the near future.](https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/automaker-ev-plans/) However, [some others](https://www.autoblog.com/2022/09/12/mercedes-amg-keeping-v8-alive/) [have remained open](https://www.hagerty.com/media/news/the-manifold/2022-04-26/) to the possibility of continuing production of the V8 if consumer demand is present.", "resc": "The question will resolve Yes if, for the 2042 model year, a V8 engine is offered in any personal vehicle produced by a major automobile manufacturer. A major automobile manufacturer is defined as any company that produces at least one million vehicles annually according to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production). \n\nOtherwise, this question resolves No.", "prediction": "75%"}
+{"title": "Will a female driver win a NASCAR Cup Series race before 2050?", "desc": "Successful IndyCar driver [Danica Patrick's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danica_Patrick) switch to NASCAR in 2011 caused a media stir, as she quickly became the only active female driver in the Cup Series. However, her NASCAR career was [widely](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1368179-danica-patrick-7-reasons-her-move-to-nascar-has-been-a-huge-disappointment) [considered](https://www.si.com/racing/2016/08/03/ap-car-nascar-danicas-drive) a [disappointment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x-6HfXy85A) and she never registered a Top 5 in her career.\n\nAs of 2023, there are [roughly a dozen currently active female drivers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_female_NASCAR_drivers#Drivers) in NASCAR-sanctioned series, none of whom have yet made a Cup Series start.", "resc": "This question resolve positively if official NASCAR reports a female driver as the winner of a Cup Series race before January 1st, 2050. Otherwise it resolve negative.", "prediction": "30%"}
+{"title": "Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?", "desc": "Instagram recently announced Threads, a text based social media application integrated with Instagram. Instagram [announced](https://help.instagram.com/169559812696339) they are planning on supporting [ActivityPub](https://www.w3.org/TR/activitypub/) a protocol for social networking.", "resc": "Instagram, Threads, Meta, or Credible Sources will announce that Threads now supports ActivityPub.", "prediction": "63%"}
+{"title": "Will Turkey be a member of the European Union by 2040?", "desc": "Turkey has been [applying](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union) to join the European Union's predecessor since 1987, and recognized as a Candidate in 1999. However, progress has stalled, and the EU suspended negotiations in 2019.\n\nMore recently, Turkey's president Erdogan has [linked](https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/10/europe/erdogan-turkey-nato-eu-sweden-intl/index.html) Sweden's NATO application to join NATO to Turkey's application to join the EU, claiming that the EU should \"clear a path\" for Turkey to join before Turkey approves Sweden's application.\n\nGiven NATO's (which includes most of EU's member states) desire to have Sweden join NATO since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the shifting geopolitical landscape for both the EU and Turkey since the start of that war, the EU may consider restarting the negotiations on Turkey's EU ascension.", "resc": "Will the Republic of Türkiye (Turkey) be a full member of the European Union on or before December 31, 2039?", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?", "desc": "[CNEOS 2014-01-08](https://www.space.com/2014-meteor-first-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua), also known as [Interstellar Meteor 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08) (IM1), crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014. \n\nHarvard astrophysicist [Avi Loeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Loeb) and a student, [Amir Siraj](https://scholar.harvard.edu/siraj/home), published a [preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07224) which argued—citing a US Department of Defense [memo](https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/DoD.pdf)—that the object originated outside the solar system.\n\n> we identify the ∼0.45m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as originating from an unbound hyperbolic orbit with 99.999\\% confidence. The U.S. Department of Defense has since verified that \"the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory.\"\n\nIf Loeb and Siraj are correct, then IM1 is the first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) scientifically known to impact the earth. Other scientists have [disputed](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/acm2023/pdf/2226.pdf) their conclusions.\n\nLoeb had previously suggested in his book [*Extraterrestrial*](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/) that a 2017 interstellar object known ‘Oumuamua' as was [\"interstellar technology built by aliens\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/space/avi-loeb-harvard-university-ufos-b2039269.html), though other scientists have proposed [alternative explanations](https://www.science.org/content/article/mystery-our-first-interstellar-visitor-may-be-solved#:~:text=Astronomers%20named%20the%20object%201I,it%20left%20the%20Solar%20System.) for Omuamua's \"strange behavior.\"\n\nIn 2023, Loeb launched an [expedition](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/summary-of-the-successful-interstellar-expedition-61ff4467070d) to recover portions of IM1, stating his belief that not only may the object be interstellar, but that it could be [alien technology](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230626-the-underwater-search-for-an-alien-object). Using a [massive magnetic sled](https://www.livescience.com/interstellar-asteroid-fishing-expedition) to scrape the seabed, Loeb's expedition found [50 spherules](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/avi-loeb-interstellar-object-aliens-b2369534.html) which Loeb believes are portions of IM1. Loeb says these spherules are now being [analyzed](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce) by \"three laboratories in UC Berkeley, Harvard and the Bruker Corporation in Germany.\"", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if at least three independent labs publish peer-reviewed studies on the question of the origin of material gathered from the IM1 crash site off the coast of Papua New Guinea, concluding the material is likelier than not (e.g. 51% or higher) from outside our solar system.\n\nFurther details:\n\n- The studies must be published before January 1, 2025\n- To qualify as \"independent\", each lab's conclusions must be stated independently of the expedition team. This condition is satisfied if:\n - the conclusions are published in papers without Avi Loeb as coauthor, or;\n - Avi Loeb is a coauthor, and the papers clearly outline the results obtained by the independent labs and the process for fully independent verification.\n- A single study (or two studies) incorporating analyses from three independent labs may be considered, if three independent studies are not available. In this case:\n - at least three independent labs must be cited in the studies;\n - The criteria for independence, above, must be satisfied.\n - Each lab must independently support the conclusion that the material is likelier than not (51% or higher) from outside the solar system. \n\nThe question resolves **No** in all other cases.", "prediction": "15%"}
+{"title": "Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?", "desc": "In his book [*Extraterrestrial*](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/), Harvard astrophysicist [Avi Loeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Loeb) suggests that a 2017 interstellar object known as ['Oumuamua](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids-comets-and-meteors/comets/oumuamua/in-depth/) is [\"interstellar technology built by aliens\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/space/avi-loeb-harvard-university-ufos-b2039269.html).\n\nInspired by partially by ‘Oumuamua, Loeb founded [The Galileo Project](https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/galileo/) in 2021 to \"[systematically search for extraterrestrial intelligence or extraterrestrial technology on and near Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Galileo_Project).\" Galileo planned and [secured funding for](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/message-in-an-interstellar-bottle-c393ea526e9f) an [expedition](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/summary-of-the-successful-interstellar-expedition-61ff4467070d) to recover portions of an object known as [CNEOS 2014-01-08](https://www.space.com/2014-meteor-first-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua), commonly called [Interstellar Meteor 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08) (IM1), which crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014. \n\nIM1 became a target of interest for The Gallileo Project when Loeb and a student, [Amir Siraj](https://scholar.harvard.edu/siraj/home), submitted a [preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07224) arguing—citing a US Department of Defense [memo](https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/DoD.pdf)—that the object originated outside the solar system.\n\n> we identify the ∼0.45m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as originating from an unbound hyperbolic orbit with 99.999\\% confidence. The U.S. Department of Defense has since verified that \"the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory.\"\n\nIf Loeb and Siraj are correct, then IM1 is the first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) scientifically known to impact the earth. Other scientists have [disputed](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/acm2023/pdf/2226.pdf) their conclusions.\n\n\nBased on IM1's observed toughness, Loeb believes that not only may the object be interstellar, but that it could be [alien technology](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230626-the-underwater-search-for-an-alien-object). To [quote Loeb](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/message-in-an-interstellar-bottle-c393ea526e9f):\n\n> There are two general possibilities. Either IM1 is of new natural origin, or it is artificial, produced by an extraterrestrial technological civilization. Regarding the first possibility, X-ray imaging of the Vela supernova remnant [revealed](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995Natur.373..590S/abstract) bow shocks from bullets flying out of the explosion site, a discovery [I attempted to explain](https://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/9405071.pdf) three decades ago. It is possible that IM1 was a small bullet tougher than conventional iron meteorites, shot out of an exploding star. But it is also possible that it was a spacecraft, a billion-year old equivalent of our [interstellar probes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_probe). Just [imagine](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/the-new-horizons-meteor-a62a3bb177b7) a spacecraft like Voyager 1 & 2, Pioneer 10 & 11 or New Horizons, crashing onto a habitable exo-planet and burning up in its atmosphere. The exo-scientists on this exo-planet would regard the resulting exo-meteor as space trash. However, if they are curious enough to examine the composition of its fragments, they would realize that it was artificial in origin.\n\nUsing a [massive magnetic sled](https://www.livescience.com/interstellar-asteroid-fishing-expedition) to scrape the seabed, Loeb's expedition found [50 spherules](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/avi-loeb-interstellar-object-aliens-b2369534.html) which Loeb believes are portions of IM1. Loeb says these spherules are now being [analyzed](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce) by \"three laboratories in UC Berkeley, Harvard and the Bruker Corporation in Germany.\" Loeb is providing regular updates on his [blog](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce).\n\n> The fundamental question we will address is whether the elements and radioactive isotopes in the spherules have different abundances than solar system materials. If so, we would also check for any anomalies that might indicate a technological origin. For example, the melted material of semiconductors would include rare elements at a much higher abundance than found in nature.", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if a systematic review of material gathered from the IM1 crash site off the coast of Papua New Guinea concludes all of the following:\n\n- With 95% confidence, the material did not originate on Earth\n- With 95% confidence, the material reflects a technological origin—that is, there is no known natural process that could create material of this composition.\n\nSuch a systematic review should be peer-reviewed and should incorporate analyses of recovered material from at least 3 independent labs. It must be published before January 1, 2026.", "prediction": "0.1%"}
+{"title": "Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?", "desc": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords):\n\n> The Abraham Accords are a series of joint normalization statements initially between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, effective since September 15, 2020.\n\nThe Accords were later joined by Morocco (2020) and Sudan (2021). As part of the dual agreements, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco recognized Israel's sovereignty, enabling the establishment of full diplomatic relations.\n\nThe Biden Administration has made it a priority to include Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords, including appointing former U.S. Ambassador Daniel Shapiro as Senior Advisor for Regional Integration, tasked to \"[deepen and broaden the Abraham Accords](https://twitter.com/secblinken/status/1674415194175406080?s=43&t=vY0_bWTIV7xGoG_yX6ppxQ)\".", "resc": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Saudi Arabia and Israel have established diplomatic relations. For the purposes of this question, diplomatic relations will be considered to be established when a mutual agreement to establish diplomatic relations is announced.", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?", "desc": "After the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya had its first free election in some 50-odd years, seeing their [electoral democracy index (as judged by V-Dem) spike at above 0.5](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). In its 2014 election, Libya appointed a House of Representatives as its government.\n\nThe validity of this election was questioned by other political bodies, among them the previous interim government that was to be replaced with the House of Representatives. This situation culminated in the second Libyan civil war.\n\nIn the past nine years since 2014, Libya has been ruled by multiple rival governments in control over various parts of the country. Multiple attempts have been made to unify these governments, of which many have broken down one way or another. \n\nCurrently, Libya is ruled by the transitional Government of National Unity, supported by the House of Representatives. (Although some sources claim the Government of National Unity is opposed by parts of the House of Representatives and several other smaller political organisations.) The Government of National Unity has a president as head of state and in command of the armed forces. This position is currently held by al-Menfi, who was appointed as part of the ongoing peace process.\n\nA free election for the Presidential position has been planned and postponed repeatedly, mainly over conflict about the process and rules for running. The most recent postponement at the end of 2022 did not come with the announcement of a new timeframe. With the last postponement, the electoral democracy index of Libya has taken another dive. That said, a UN envoy says that a new election is in process, and the incumbent prime minister promises 2023 will be a year of elections.", "resc": "This question will resolve **yes** if a credible source reports that presidential elections have taken place in Libya before January 1, 2025. Otherwise it resolves **no**.\n\nIf Libya ceases to be recognised as a country by the UN, the question resolves **ambiguous**.", "prediction": "30%"}
+{"title": "Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?", "desc": "One way of dividing the space of possible futures is to consider whether transformative AI will lead to a singleton, which would be a huge change in the world order and a huge concentration of power, or a multipolar world, which would still be radically different to our current world (because of the prevalence of powerful AI), but which would look more like our present day situation of “there are different groups of people with different goals and the ability to realize some subset of their goals.” Whether we end up in a singleton world or a multipolar world is one of the most important questions when considering an AI-driven future (e.g., [Takahashi, 2023](https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.14478#)).\n\nThe [singleton hypothesis](https://nickbostrom.com/fut/singleton)—that humanity's descendents would become a singleton—was first put forward by [Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom). Bostrom thinks a singleton is more likely than not.", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, within five years of the first transformative AI being deployed, more than 50% of world economic output can be attributed to the single most powerful AI system. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.\n\nThe date at which a “transformative AI is deployed” will be the resolution date of [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19356/transformative-ai-date/) related Metaculus question.\n\nTo be considered “attributed to the single most powerful AI system” the AI system or copies of such an AI system (including variants, offshoots, or future generations stemming from such an AI system) must be coordinating to produce economic output. The economic output must be measured in a sense of “value added”, or contribution to GDP stemming from the AI activities. For example, if an AI system was being used as a tool during the production of a good or service only the portion of output that the AI produces or directed will be considered, aligned to the extent possible with typical measures of contribution to GDP.\n\nQuestion resolution will be determined according to estimates published by credible sources that meet the criteria described. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity surrounding the question, Metaculus will assemble a three-person resolution committee. This committee will consist of one Metaculus staff member and two AI experts, selected in good faith by Metaculus. The committee's sole purpose is to resolve the question at hand. The committee will only be convened if Metaculus administrators determine that there is uncertainty regarding whether the question has met the criteria for a **Yes** resolution as previously outlined. Should the committee be convened, whether the question should be resolved and the resolution of the question will be based on the majority vote of these three individuals.", "prediction": "40%"}
+{"title": "Will there be a Run on the Banks before 2031?", "desc": "A \"run on the banks\" refers to a situation in which a large number of depositors, concerned about the stability or solvency of a financial institution, simultaneously withdraw their funds from their accounts. This massive withdrawal of funds can lead to a severe liquidity crisis for the bank, making it difficult or impossible to meet the demands of all the depositors.\n\n[During a bank run,]( https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2023/03/19/svb-collapse-new-banks-could-fail/11504269002/) there might be panic and loss of confidence in the institution, causing a self-fulfilling prophecy where more depositors rush to withdraw their funds, exacerbating the financial strain on the bank. Bank runs can have significant consequences on the financial system, leading to a domino effect on other banks and potentially triggering broader economic instability.\n\nDrawing on a [study by Jiang, Matvos, Pisorski, & Seru,]( https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4387676) the following characteristics of a bank run can be understood in terms of six dimensions:\n\n1.\tMarked-to-Market Losses: The article examines losses on banks' assets, including loan portfolios and securities linked to real estate, by adjusting them to their market values. Findings indicate that bank assets decline on average by 10%, with some banks experiencing a decline of up to 20%.\n\n2.\tImpact on Bank Solvency and Run Incentives: The decline in assets affects banks' solvency and run incentives. Banks with higher reliance on uninsured deposits are more susceptible to runs by depositors. Uninsured depositors have incentives to withdraw their funds if they believe the bank's assets have significantly decreased in value.\n\n3.\tUninsured Leverage and Bank Fragility: Uninsured leverage (Uninsured Debt/Assets) is a key factor in determining a bank's potential insolvency. Banks with lower initial capitalization and higher uninsured leverage are more fragile and vulnerable to runs by uninsured depositors.\n\n4.\tImpact of Interest Rate Increases: A rise in interest rates can exacerbate the vulnerability of banks to depositor runs. If interest rate increases are substantial, there is a possibility of a \"bad\" equilibrium with uninsured depositor runs leading to banks becoming insolvent.\n\n5.\tImplications for Financial Stability: The decline in bank asset values and a large share of uninsured deposits at some U.S. banks can impair their stability. Even if only a portion of uninsured depositors withdraw their funds, numerous banks are at potential risk, affecting insured depositors as well.\n\n6.\tIncreased Fragility of U.S. Banking System: The calculations suggest that recent declines in bank asset values significantly increased the fragility of the U.S. banking system to uninsured depositor runs.\n\nAfter extensive analysis, their conclusion is that “Even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to even insured depositors, with potentially more than $250 billion of insured deposits at risk absent regulatory intervention.”", "resc": "The FDIC maintains a [Failed Bank](https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/) List tracking bank failures as well as a page [plotting them over time]( https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/).\n\nThis question will resolve as “Yes” if 190 or more of FDIC insured banks fail between January 1st, 2023 and December 31st, 2030, based on the banks appearing in the list. The resolution date for this question will be January 15, 2031.", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will the United States Congress pass a Gold Standards Resolution Act similar in essence to H.R. 2435 before the end of 2030?", "desc": "On March 30, 2023, [H.R.2435, titled the Gold Standard Restoration Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2435) was introduced in the US House of Representatives. According to the congress.gov bill summary:\n\n>This bill requires the Department of the Treasury to define the Federal Reserve note dollar in terms of a fixed weight of gold, based on that day's closing market price of gold. Federal Reserve Banks must exchange Federal Reserve notes with gold at this price and create processes to facilitate exchanges between banks and the public. If a Federal Reserve Bank does not do this, Treasury must make any exchange and place a corresponding lien on the assets of that bank.\n>\n>In addition, Treasury and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve must report on U.S. gold holdings.\n\nThe [gold standard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard) is a system under which a country's currency is backed by and exchangeable for gold. [According to CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/29/is-it-really-time-for-a-return-of-the-gold-standard.html), referring to the end of the gold standard in the United States:\n\n>It was the Richard Nixon administration that completely severed the link between gold and the dollar in the early 1970s – even after the gold standard was ditched in 1930s, foreign government were still allowed to exchange the greenback for bullion. Fixed amounts of gold were directly convertible to the U.S. dollar and vice versa. This meant the money supply was theoretically limited by the amount of gold backing it and exchange rates were based on the difference in price for an ounce of gold in different currencies.\n\nSome politicians and pundits [have advocated](https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/29/is-it-really-time-for-a-return-of-the-gold-standard.html) for the US to return to the gold standard.", "resc": "Congressional Approval: The question will resolve “Yes” if the United States Congress passes a Gold Standards Resolution Act or any substantially similar legislation related to reintroducing a gold standard for the U.S. dollar before December 31st, 2030.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Harvard University announce an end to preferential legacy admissions before 2030?", "desc": "Harvard University's legacy admissions policy has recently come under scrutiny, with the US Department of Education [opening](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/25/us/politics/harvard-admissions-civil-rights-inquiry.html) a civil rights inquiry into the practice. \n\n[Legacy admissions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legacy_preferences), also known as legacy preferences, benefit students who have a familial relationship to an alumni of a college or university. Harvard [considers](https://admissionsight.com/what-percentage-of-harvard-students-are-legacy/) an applicant a legacy applicant if at least one parent graduated from Harvard or Radcliffe. \n\nThe acceptance rate for legacy students at Harvard is [up to seven times higher](https://apnews.com/article/legacy-admissions-harvard-affirmative-action-diversity-24321f3814d5feec6d380d18c8b6c2e1) than the rate for other students, and legacy applicants make up as much as 1/3 of the incoming class. \n\nThe Supreme Court recently [ruled](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/20-1199_hgdj.pdf) that Harvard's affirmative action admissions policy was unconstitutional, leading activists to [challenge](https://www.npr.org/2023/07/03/1185911470/affirmative-action-supreme-court-ruling-legacy-admissions-harvard) the legacy policy.\n\nSome selective schools have voluntarily given up legacy admissions, including recently [Wesleyan University](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/us/wesleyan-university-ends-legacy-admissions.html#:~:text=Wesleyan%20University%2C%20a%20liberal%20arts,Court%20struck%20down%20affirmative%20action.) in Connecticut.\n\nA recent [study by Harvard economists](https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CollegeAdmissions_Paper.pdf) found that very wealthy applicants have [significant advantages](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/24/metro/research-harvard-economists-confirms-elite-colleges-favor-wealthy-students/) in the admissions process at elite institutions, including Harvard.", "resc": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, Harvard University announces an end to preferential treatment for legacy applicants for future undergraduate classes.", "prediction": "40%"}
+{"title": "Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?", "desc": "In July 2023, the US House of Representatives will hold a [hearing](https://www.space.com/ufos-congress-hearing-livestream-july-2023) related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP).\n\n> The hearing will be held by the House's Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs and will include testimony from former U.S. military and intelligence community personnel who claim to have come in contact with craft that defy physics and known flight capabilities or have even seen evidence of \"non-human intelligence.\"\n\nThe hearing follows an [official, inconclusive report](https://www.intelligence.gov/index.php/publics-daily-brief/public-s-daily-brief-articles/1077-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-preliminary-intelligence-assessment) on Unidentified Ariel Phenomena submitted to Congress by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in 2021. It comes in the context of the recently-proposed [UAP Disclosure Act of 2023](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8JXv9ADBGuDzFL4EZ/the-uap-disclosure-act-of-2023-and-its-implications).\n\nOn LessWrong, a thread titled [UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up) gathered 200 upvotes and over 160 comments, with multiple LessWrong users betting the UAPs will ultimately have a prosaic explanation. Most prominently, Eliezer Yudkowsky [bet](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/?commentId=rsKjPAPqeFwQuNibD) $150,000, to win $1,000, that UAPs have a prosaic explanation that is not ontologically-shocking.\n\nThis question resolves based on the outcomes of those bets. Here are the resolution criteria agreed upon by LessWrong users who made these wagers:\n\n>Two Worlds: All-ufos-are-ultimately-prosaic, and Not-all-ufos-are-ultimately-prosaic. I win the bet if we come to believe we likely live in the latter world. I win the bet if the ufo story ultimately gives us LW's a significant ontological shock. I win the bet if the ufo story ultimately causes the LW community to stop, melt, and catch fire. I've found it difficult to precisely nail down how to phrase this, so I hope its clear what kind of criteria I'm trying to get at.\n\n> Examples of things where if we come to believe at least one of them likely explain >0 ufo/uap cases, then I win the bet:\n\n> - Aliens / Extraterrestrials\n - Biological\n - Machines (Von Neumann probes, for instance)\n - Actual magic/spiritual/paranormal/psychic phenomenon\n - This explicitly does NOT include merely advanced \"mentalist\" type things / show magic ie, things like ESP, astral projection, demons, god(s), angels, ghosts, remote viewing, fairy's (actually anomalous, not just new kind of bird), etc. Basically, the kinds of things that standard atheist materialists would reject as not being real.\n - Time travel, ie, future human activities (or otherwise)\n- Leftovers of an ancient civilization \n- Some other unknown non-human advanced civilization on earth\n- Matrix Glitches / The simulators have a sense of humor\n- Some other explanation I'm missing that's of a similar level of \"very weird\"\n- Merely advanced \"normal\" human tech would NOT count (+2 gens stealth aircraft/drones, advanced holograms/spoofing, etc). What WOULD count is if the story is significantly weird enough to cause ontological shock. example: Secret Manhattan style project with beyond next gen physics, that we had back in the 60's\n\n> Important Note: The bet resolve in my favor if we think that one of the \"weird hypotheses\" is likely (>50%) true, NOT that we are confident in which specific explanation is true. Essentially, the bet resolves in my favor if we agree with the statement: \"Whatever these most perplexing ufo/uap cases represent, they are likely something beyond our current paradigm\"", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if any of the following occur before July 22, 2028:\n\n- [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliezer_Yudkowsky) concedes his [bet](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1682446903953457152) that UAPs do not have a worldview-shattering origin, or;\n- At least three LessWrong users who have made [similar bets](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up) concede that not all UAPs are ultimately prosaic.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in \"The Kingkiller Chronicle\"?", "desc": "*The Kingkiller Chronicle* and *A Song of Ice and Fire* are considered two of the [best epic fantasy fiction series](https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/50.The_Best_Epic_Fantasy_fiction_) of all time.\n\nThe most recent books in each series were published in 2011, leaving their fans expecting new volume (or news of it) for over 12 years. \n\nAs of July 2023 [neither](https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2023/05/22/a-new-patrick-rothfuss-kingkiller-chronicles-book--is-coming-out-this-year/?sh=2443fa0e1561) George R.R. Martin's \"[The Winds of Winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter)\" nor Patrick Rothfuss's \"[The Doors of Stone](https://kingkiller.fandom.com/wiki/The_Doors_of_Stone)\" have an official publication date, despite many tentative deadlines the authors have given during the years.\n\nWho will publish first?", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if *The Winds of Winter* by [George R.R. Martin](https://georgerrmartin.com/) is published and available for purchase before *The Doors of Stone* by [Patrick Rothfuss](https://patrickrothfuss.com/). The information source is publication houses' statements corroborated by credible reports.\n\nThe books in question are the next volumes in the series *[A Song of Ice and Fire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire)* (by George R.R. Martin) and *[The Kingkiller Chronicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Kingkiller_Chronicle)* (by Patrick Rothfuss). This question concerns the next volume of these series, regardless if either author decides to change the planned title.", "prediction": "54%"}
+{"title": "Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?", "desc": "\n\nThe Federal Reserve recently implemented a series of aggressive interest rate hikes in response to economic conditions in the United States. [Ray Dalio]( https://time.com/6286449/ray-dalio-world-great-disorder/), a prominent investor and economic commentator, has proposed a theory that during severe and prolonged economic crises, there tends to be an oscillation between inflationary and deflationary periods. This question aims to assess the likelihood of the US experiencing a deflationary cycle within the timeframe of 2023 to 2030.\n\nDeflation can be [indirectly measured](https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2023/04/08/deflation-is-the-future/?sh=6e2bcd47216a) using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is a widely used metric that tracks the changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services typically consumed by households. It is a key indicator of inflation, which is the general increase in prices over time. Inflation and deflation are opposite phenomena, representing the rise and fall, respectively, in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy.\n\nWhen the CPI value declines over a sustained period, it [indicates deflation](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569874-deflation-and-slowing-growth-why-2023-will-see-both-continue). In other words, the purchasing power of money increases as prices decrease. This can be a concerning economic situation because deflation may lead to delayed consumer spending, reduced investment, and negative impacts on economic growth and employment.\n\nThe FED has been [aggressively raising the interest]( https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569874-deflation-and-slowing-growth-why-2023-will-see-both-continue) rates to cool inflation. However, [economists worry]( https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2022/7/6/weekly-comment-the-great-deflation-of-2023) about, the possibility of experiencing a sharp deflationary episode, a sort of whiplash effect, which would [force another about-turn]( https://www.timothyxmerritt.com/post/facing-the-unfathomable-government-strategies-for-dealing-with-a-greater-depression) for central banks.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers [(CPI-U)]( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) meets any one of these three criteria (measured as end of period to end of period):\n\n- CPI Metric 1: Annual CPI Percentage Change: A deflationary period will be considered to have occurred if the year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for any given year between 2023 and 2030 is negative.\n\n- CPI Metric 2: CPI Quarterly Trend: A deflationary period will be considered to have occurred if there is a continuous decline in the CPI for three or more consecutive quarters during any period between 2023 and 2030.\n\n- CPI Metric 3: Cumulative CPI Change: A deflationary period will be considered to have occurred if there is a cumulative decline in the CPI of at least 2% over any period of two or more consecutive years between 2023 and 2030.", "prediction": "22%"}
+{"title": "Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?", "desc": "As of 2023, the political gap between developed countries lead by the US and developing countries lead by China is growing. This gap is also seen in regard to compliance with environmental and climate change policies (pollution, deforestation, hunting etc). Will this [non-compliance](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/12/environment-fragility-and-conflict/) be cited as the primary cause of a war within the next 50 years?", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 2073, at least two credible sources and one peer-reviewed academic paper attribute the cause of a war to non-compliance with climate change and environmental protection policies.", "prediction": "60%"}
+{"title": "Will Moderna Rank Among the Top 5 Biotech Companies Globally by Market Cap Before the End of 2028?", "desc": "Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA), a pioneer in mRNA-based vaccine technology, has made significant strides in the biotech industry, most notably through its critical role in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. As of mid-2023, Moderna's market cap ranks it outside of the top 5 biotech companies globally.\n\nThis question asks: Will Moderna ascend to be one of the top 5 biotech companies globally by market capitalization on or before December 31, 2028?", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) ranks among the top 5 biotech companies globally by market capitalization on any day on or before December 31, 2028, according to official data from a reputable source like Bloomberg or Reuters. If Moderna does not reach this position by the specified date, the question will resolve negatively.\n\nPredictions on this question could take into account numerous factors including the overall health of the biotech sector, potential breakthroughs in Moderna's pipeline, competitive landscape, global market trends, and the long-term impact and acceptance of mRNA technology.", "prediction": "15%"}
+{"title": "Will Palantir's Market Cap exceed $80 Billion by the end of 2026?", "desc": "Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR), a leading software company that aids organizations in analyzing vast data sets, has seen steady growth since its public listing. As of mid-2023, Palantir's market capitalization is around $38 billion. The company plays a crucial role in the national security framework of the United States and its allies and is poised to grow further amid the rapidly emerging geopolitical AI threats.\n\nThis question asks: Given its increasing importance in maintaining national security and its role in combating AI threats, will Palantir Technologies Inc.'s market capitalization exceed $80 billion on or before December 31, 2026?", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if the market capitalization of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) surpasses $80 billion on any trading day on or before December 31, 2026, according to official data from NYSE. If this value has not been achieved by that date, the question will resolve negatively.\n\nPredictions on this question could consider numerous factors. These include Palantir's future business strategies and growth in the national security sector, the company's potential to help address geopolitical AI threats, the overall health of the tech industry, and the broader economic environment.", "prediction": "61%"}
+{"title": "Will at least two of the largest Abrahamic religions recognize the arrival of the Messiah in the next 200 years?", "desc": "The concept of a [Messiah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messiah), a savior or liberator of a group of people, is a central component of [Abrahamic religions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abrahamic_religions). The individual claiming to be the Messiah may demonstrate knowledge, abilities, or characteristics that are widely believed to be consistent with descriptions of the Messiah in religious texts of Christianity, Judaism or Islam.\n\n*(This question was entirely drafted by GPT-4)*", "resc": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if two major Abrahamic religions (Christianity, Judaism, and Islam) each have one major branch acknowledge the arrival of the same Messiah after August 11, 2023 and before 2224. \n\nFor the purposes of this question, a major branch of a faith is a branch that counts at least 500,000 members. At the time of question writing, major branches include (but are not limited to):\n\n- Christianity: Catholicism; the major Protestant branches, such as Baptists, Methodists, Lutherans, Anglicans, Pentecostals, and Evangelicals; and Orthodox Christianity\n- Judaism: Orthodox, Conservative, and Reform\n- Islam: Sunni and Shia\n\nThe question requires at least two of the three major religions to acknowledge the same Messiah, with each acknowledgement coming from a major branch of the religion, and will resolve on the date of the second such acknowledgement.\n\nAcknowledgement requires statements by multiple recognized leaders of the faith tradition, including the highest leader of that tradition (e.g. the Pope for Catholicism) if such a figure exists. If such a figure does not exist, recognized leaders will be considered to be those at the upper echelons of authority within the faith or prominent leaders in the faith, as determined from characterizations made by credible sources.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?", "desc": "A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).\n\nPrevious efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).\n\n![\"Timeline](\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\")
\n*PJRay, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application at room temperature and ambient pressure. For the purposes of this question a commercial application will be considered to be one which is used as an intermediate product in the production of another product or service, or in other words not a novelty item or toy.\n\nTo qualify, all of the following must be confirmed by publicly available information about the superconductor itself or must have been demonstrated through credible published research for the material of which the superconductor is made:\n\n* The superconductor has been used in a fully-functional commercial product (testing, development, or research and design do not qualify)\n* The superconductor operates at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius or higher\n* The superconductor operates at a pressure of 2 atmospheres or less\n* The superconductor satisfies standard criteria typically used to define a superconductor, such as exhibiting the Meissner effect and having zero or negligible resistance below the critical temperature.", "prediction": "0.5%"}
+{"title": "Will there be a year before 2074 when the percentage of renewable energy supported by space-based power systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems?", "desc": "The quest for sustainable and renewable energy has recently been a cornerstone of human progress. Traditional, earth-based renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, have expanded their global market share. Simultaneously, advances in space technology have given rise to the concept of space-based power generation, which proposes capturing solar energy in space where the sun always shines and transmitting it to Earth.\n\n[Space-based solar power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-based_solar_power) (SBSP) theoretically offers an unlimited, constant, and environmentally friendly power source, free from the intermittency problems of earth-based renewable energy. However, its practical implementation [faces significant challenges](https://www.wsj.com/articles/beaming-solar-energy-from-space-gets-a-step-closer-fc903658) today, including technical issues, high costs, and the absence of a regulatory framework.\n\nGiven these circumstances, it raises the intriguing question: Will there be a year in the next 50 years when the percentage of renewable energy capacity directly supported by space-based power generation systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems? The answer could greatly influence global energy policy, technological investment, and environmental sustainability.", "resc": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in any year from 2023 to 2073, the total global capacity of renewable energy directly supported by space-based power generation systems exceeds the total global capacity of renewable energy supported by earth-based power generation systems.\n2. The renewable energy capacity directly supported by space-based systems includes any energy generated in space transmitted to and used on Earth.\n3. The capacity of renewable energy supported by earth-based systems includes any renewable energy generated on Earth (including but not limited to solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and bioenergy).\n4. Evidence of this occurrence must come from reputable sources, such as international bodies (like the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-clean-energy-progress-2023)), scientific journals, or credible media sources reporting on official data.\n5. If the total capacities are equal in a given year, this will not be sufficient for resolution; the space-based capacity must be greater.", "prediction": "4%"}
+{"title": "Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?", "desc": "\n\nSolar power has seen significant growth in recent years, alongside wind power. As of September 1, 2023, solar power is the third largest renewable, behind hydropower and wind power, respectively.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in any year from 2023 to 2030, inclusive, the total global consumption of primary energy from solar power on Earth exceeds the consumption of primary energy from all other individual renewable energy sources on Earth for the year (meaning solar must be the largest source of renewable energy, it need not exceed the sum of all other renewables). For the purposes of this question, renewables include, but are not limited to, solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and bioenergy. Resolution will be determined according to data published in the [Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review).", "prediction": "70%"}
+{"title": "Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?", "desc": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **YES** if a peer-reviewed replication of the superconductivity of LK-99 that confirms the main findings is published before January 1, 2025. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study.\n\nA confirmatory replication would have to include the following:\n\n* Reproduction of the synthesis of LK-99 \n\n* Confirmation that the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (126.85C) — the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting \n\n* Confirmation that the resistivity drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm — true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature\n\nTo be considered a confirmed replication the research must replicate all of the above.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?", "desc": "A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).\n\nPrevious efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).\n\n![PJRay](\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\"){kind=link}
\n*PJRay, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application at room temperature and ambient pressure. For the purposes of this question a commercial application will be considered to be one which is used as an intermediate product in the production of another product or service, or in other words not a novelty item or toy.\n\nTo qualify, all of the following must be confirmed by publicly available information about the superconductor itself or must have been demonstrated through credible published research for the material of which the superconductor is made:\n\n* The superconductor has been used in a fully-functional commercial product (testing, development, or research and design do not qualify)\n* The superconductor operates at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius or higher\n* The superconductor operates at a pressure of 2 atmospheres or less\n* The superconductor satisfies standard criteria typically used to define a superconductor, such as exhibiting the Meissner effect and having zero or negligible resistance below the critical temperature.", "prediction": "3%"}
+{"title": "Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?", "desc": "In June the [Russian Federal Security Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) (FSB) [issued a public statement](http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/single.htm%21id%3D10439739%40fsbMessage.html) claiming that Apple collaborates heavily with American Intelligence Agencies, particularly the [US National Security Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency) (NSA), and sends them Russian data. That did not prevent numerous Russian officials from taking photos with their iPhones [during the economic forum in Saint-Petersburg though](https://t.me/faridaily24/933).\n\nHowever, at the end of June there [were reports](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/22/russian-govt-officials-banned-from-bringing-iphones-into-cabinet-meetings-report-a81590) that Russian government officials were barred from using their iPhones during cabinet meetings. On July 16, 2023, there [were reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-moves-to-ban-iphones-for-government-officials-2023-7) that some Russian government ministries were barring employees from using iPhones on the job.\n\nOn August 2, 2023, [Russia's Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roskomnadzor) (Roskomnadzor), [was reported](https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18433053) (according to machine translation) to have denied claims that they were preparing to ban the sale of Apple equipment.", "resc": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that any of these three things has happened before January 1, 2025:\n\n1. A Presidential decree is issued banning Apple products in Russia\n2. Roskomnadzor issues a public ban on Apple products in Russia\nor\n3. a federal law is passed by the legislature and signed by Putin, banning Apple products in Russia\n\nFor the purposes of this question a \"ban\" will be considered to be a prohibition on the sale of Apple products in Russia. The ban need not take effect before January 1, 2025, only the issuance or enactment of a law that will ban the sale of Apple products is required.", "prediction": "2%"}
+{"title": "Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?", "desc": "One of the potential risks to Donald Trump's presidential hopes in 2024 is whether a high profile Republican presidential candidate opts to run as an independent, sapping votes from centrist voters who dislike the former President but would otherwise vote along with their party.", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on the date of the US Presidential Election in 2024, both of these conditions are true:\n\n- A candidate who earned at least one delegate in the 2024 Republican Primary is actively campaigning for the office of US President in 2024\n- That same candidate is not listed as the nominee of the Republican (or Democratic) party in 26 or more US states.\n\nFor this question, the candidate may not be nominated by the Republican or Democratic party for any reason. They may start their own party, join another third-party, campaign as an independent, or claim to be a Republican but not receive the party's endorsement, asking voters to write them in.\n\nThe determination of whether a candidate is considered to be \"actively campaigning\" will be at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.", "prediction": "2%"}
+{"title": "Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?", "desc": "In [an announcement published August 1, 2023](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/city-of-hope-scientists-develop-targeted-chemotherapy-able-to-kill-all-solid-tumors-in-preclinical-research-301888576.html), City of Hope, a cancer research organization, described the results of initial testing of AOH1996, a pill designed to [selectively kill cancer cells](https://www.cell.com/cell-chemical-biology/fulltext/S2451-9456(23)00221-0?rss=yes).\n\nThe pill has entered Phase I clinical trials, with a [study start date of August 12, 2022](https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05227326), and it was announced on October 19, 2022, [that the first human patient had received a dose](https://www.cityofhope.org/cancer-center-announces-first-patient-has-received-city-hopes-novel-potentially-cancer-stopping).\n\nIn a [blog post in Science](https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/new-mode-cancer-treatment) Derek Lowe says the following:\n\n>The compound has entered a Phase I trial in humans on the basis of the above data, and I very much look forward to seeing it advance to Phase II, where it will doubtless be used in combination with several existing therapies.\n\n[Antidote describes clinical trial phases as follows](https://www.antidote.me/blog/how-long-do-clinical-trial-phases-take):\n\n>**Phase 1:** Phase 1 of a clinical trial will typically be open to 20 and 100 participants, and will last for several months. This phase is not intended to evaluate whether the treatment in question is effective — instead, the purpose of this phase is to measure safety by checking for adverse side effects. Phase 1 trials typically look for healthy volunteers, but may seek people with the condition being studied depending on the type of research in question.\n>\n>**Phase 2:** Once a drug has been deemed safe from the Phase 1 results, it is able to progress to Phase 2. Around 70% of drugs progress to the second phase, which is designed to measure safety in a larger group of volunteers (typically several hundred), while also measuring the effectiveness of the treatment on the participants.\n>\n>**Phase 3:** About 33% of drugs will make it past the second phase and go on to Phase 3. The third phase of a clinical trial recruits the largest number of participants, with enrollment goals typically in the thousands. Phase 3 is intended to measure both safety and efficacy for a longer duration, usually lasting between one and four years.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that AOH1996 has begun Phase III clinical trials.", "prediction": "25%"}
+{"title": "Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?", "desc": "Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, has been involved in an array of legal battles post his presidency. Currently facing three indictments with the prospect of a fourth, his legal circumstances have sparked curiosity about the possible outcomes.\n\n**Assessing the Odds**\n\nEstimating the odds of a jury reaching a guilty verdict in at least one of Trump's cases can be complex. Historically, federal conviction rates in the U.S have been relatively high, often surpassing 90%. However, this figure doesn't necessarily imply the same odds for Trump's case. The likelihood of a guilty verdict depends heavily on the evidence, the nature of the crimes, the lawyers involved, the jury's composition, and public opinion, among other factors.\n\n**The \"Stealth Juror\" Scenario**\n\nOne of the factors complicating the trial outcome is the possibility of a 'stealth juror'. In this context, a stealth juror refers to a passionate Trump supporter (who didn't vote in 2016 and 2020 for whatever reasons) pretending to be neutral who, despite being obliged to judge impartially, could be biased in their judgement. If at least one juror refuses to agree with the others, it could lead to a hung jury, which may complicate the process further.\n\nU.S courts use a process called voir dire to select impartial jurors. While this process is usually effective, it is not foolproof. A passionate supporter could potentially hide their bias, impacting the verdict. However, such a scenario is relatively rare and challenging to pull off. Furthermore, even if a stealth juror manages to cause a hung jury in one case, the likelihood of this happening consistently across multiple trials is low.\n\nBesides backing Trump, a juror could have other motivations for opposing a guilty verdict in a federal trial against a former president.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if at least one judge announces Trump's guilt of at least one count, as reported by credible sources.", "prediction": "40%"}
+{"title": "Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "92%"}
+{"title": "Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "3%"}
+{"title": "Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "5%"}
+{"title": "Will David Chalmers believe there is conscious AI before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "57%"}
+{"title": "Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "76%"}
+{"title": "Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "45%"}
+{"title": "Will the International Maritime Organization permit more sulphur oxide pollution by 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "15%"}
+{"title": "Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "25%"}
+{"title": "Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "3.3%"}
+{"title": "Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "90%"}
+{"title": "Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "39%"}
+{"title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will at least one US state secede by 2070?", "desc": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies) Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act) However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War) However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union. ](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/) If a US state successfully secedes by 2070, which ones will secede?", "resc": "The question resolves Yes if any US state leaves the union. \n\nThe procedure to leave the Union need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature).\n\nIn case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded or has been ejected out of the union.\n\nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession. For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution.", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?", "desc": "[New York City](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City) is the largest city in the United States, and therefore it is the focus of significant media attention. Homicides [briefly surged during COVID](https://apnews.com/article/new-york-shootings-new-york-city-violence-coronavirus-pandemic-b1c52b8071219052fd713a6b83999698), causing stories to appear in the media fearing [a return to the \"bad old days\"](https://thecrimereport.org/2021/03/03/is-new-york-citys-spike-in-violence-a-return-to-the-bad-old-days/). However, [homicides have since declined](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/nyregion/shootings-nyc-crime.html).\n\nFor reference, there were [438 homicides](https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/historical-crime-data/seven-major-felony-offenses-2000-2022.pdf) reported in 2022.", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if the New York City Police Department (or equivalent future organization) officially reports the number of murders (and non-negligent manslaughters) for a year to be at least 1,500. The data can be accessed at [this site](https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/historical.page).", "prediction": "13%"}
+{"title": "Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?", "desc": "The Swedish security services publishes a Terrorism Threat Level, [which according to the police](https://polisen.se/en/the-swedish-police/Raising-general-awareness-of-terrorism-related-issues/questions-and-answers-about-the-raised-terror-threat-level/)\n\n> has [been at a] heightened threat level (3) for almost 13 years. We have spent many years enhancing our capacity. \n\nMore recently, the [Swedish Security Services raised this threat level to 4](https://säkerhetspolisen.se/ovriga-sidor/nyheter/nyheter/2023-08-17-hojning-av-terrorhotnivan-till-hogt-hot.html):\n\n> The threat level changes from heightened (3) to high (4) on a five-point scale. Raising the threat level is supposed to work as a signal to the relevant authorities about the importance of continued work with actions that lower the risk of a terrorist attack occurring.\n\nThe reason is given by the same source as\n\n> The threat toward Sweden has gradually changed and the attack threat from actors related to violent Islamism has increased during the year. Sweden has gone from being a legitimate target for terrorist attacks to becoming a prioritised target.\n\nThe five-point terrorism threat scale has the following fuzzy descriptions:\n\n1. No threat identified\n\n2. Limited threat\n\n3. Heightened threat\n\n4. High threat\n\n5. Very high threat\n\nThis question is, to some degree, about figuring out the practical consequences of this raised threat level.", "resc": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a terrorist attack has resulted in at least one civilian or innocent death in Sweden between 1 August 2023 to 1 January 2031. Determination of whether a death is attributed to \"terrorism\" or some other homicide will be determined by the swedish government and/or police if they publicly state that the crime is being investigated or charged as a terrorist attack (conviction is not required).", "prediction": "95%"}
+{"title": "Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?", "desc": "As of August 2023, China has only one military base overseas - a naval base in Djibouti, Africa. However, there are clear indications that they are interested in expanding their global power projection capabilities, and indeed some overseas naval bases are allegedly under construction in Asia and Africa.\n\nWith the adding of seven new member countries to BRICS, an alliance primarily focused on economic and diplomatic partnership, it is an important question regarding the standoff between East and West whether BRICS will take a more militaristic aspect as well. Overseas Chinese military bases would be a strong indication of this.\n\n[China may be planning overseas naval bases] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/27/china-building-overseas-naval-bases-across-asia-and-africa-say-analysts", "resc": "The question will resolve to YES if either the Chinese government or US intelligence community publicly announces a Chinese military base in a BRICS country before January 1st, 2026.\n\nThe country needs to be an official member of BRICS, thus the seven new nations that were invited in August 2023 will count towards YES only after January 2024, when they're projected to officially join.\n\nIf the Chinese base is in a country which only afterwards joins BRICS, the question will still resolve to YES.", "prediction": "50%"}
+{"title": "Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?", "desc": "The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2050, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action. This question pertains to the [carrier vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_the_United_States_Navy) (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as [LHD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing_helicopter_dock)'s).", "prediction": "28%"}
+{"title": "Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?", "desc": "Ursula von der Leyen (DE/EPP) is the current President of the European Commission. The European Commission President is elected for a 5-year term by the European Parliament after European elections, meaning her term will end in 2024, coinciding with the 2024 European Parliament elections. The European Council proposes a candidate, usually from the largest political group in the Parliament, considering election results. The Parliament must approve the candidate by an absolute majority, and then the European Council officially appoints the new President.", "resc": "This question resolves yes if Ursula von der Leyen is officially appointed by the European Council as President of the European Commission after the European elections in June 2024 and before the end of the year 2024. \n\nResolves no if Von der Leyen is not appointed Commission President in 2024 (another candidate is appointed or negotiations continue beyond 2024).", "prediction": "60%"}
+{"title": "Will advancements in space-based observation systems lead to a significant reduction in illegal fishing activities in global marine regions before 2031?", "desc": "Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a global problem causing significant ecological, economic, and social harm. Current enforcement mechanisms for preventing illegal fishing activities are often limited by the vastness and complexity of marine regions, making comprehensive monitoring a challenging task.\nWith advancements in technology, space-based observation systems like satellites and remote sensing technologies have become increasingly crucial in monitoring and protecting marine resources. These technologies can potentially provide real-time, wide-area monitoring capabilities that could significantly enhance the detection of illegal activities and environmental anomalies.\n\nAdvancements in space-based observation systems could have profound implications for marine conservation, sustainable fishing practices, and international law enforcement.", "resc": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report a 5% or larger reduction (or if no quantifiable estimate is provided a characterization of the reduction as \"significant\" or otherwise substantial) in illegal fishing activities in global marine regions attributable to advancements in space-based observation systems. The reduction must apply broadly and not be isolated to a single location or small region.\n2. “Illegal fishing activities\" refer to activities that contravene national and international fishing laws, including, but not limited to, fishing without permission, fishing in closed areas, fishing in protected areas, fishing for protected species, and exceeding fishing quotas.\n4. The space-based observation systems need not be the sole contributor to the reduction, but their contribution should be identifiable and significant. The use of satellites to produce better estimates that show less illegal fishing does not qualify, satellite observation has to be directly implemented in enforcement.\n5. If such reports or demonstrations are not available before 2031, or if they indicate that the technology has not led to a significant reduction in illegal fishing activities, the question will resolve as **No**.\n6. The onus of this question is on establishing the effectiveness of these technologies in achieving the stated goals, and conflicting reports, or ambiguous or mixed evidence, will not be sufficient.", "prediction": "50%"}
+{"title": "Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?", "desc": "The advent of space-based technologies has provided us with an unprecedented ability to monitor Earth's environment from a unique vantage point. This, in turn, has the potential to revolutionize our approach to disaster management, with more effective early warning systems for natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. However, predicting these events with sufficient lead time and accuracy remains a significant challenge.\n\nThe [National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) (NHC) of the US [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration) (NOAA), [assesses](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml) the track error and intensity error for its hurricane and tropical storm predictions. [According too the NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify2.shtml), track error is\n\n>Track forecast error is defined as the great-circle distance between a cyclone's forecast position and the best track position at the forecast verification time.\n\nThe [NHC also characterizes](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify8.shtml?) the 48 hour performance measures as follows\n\n>While the NHC produces forecasts for periods extending from 12 through 120 hours, the 48-hour forecast is often important for emergency managers and preparedness actions.\n\n![\"NHC](\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/ALtkerrtrd_noTD_sm.jpg\")
\n*[National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml)*", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any year between 2023 and 2030, inclusive, the [National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml) that the annual average track error for 48 hour forecasts of Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes has reached 30.0 nautical miles or less.", "prediction": "57%"}
+{"title": "Will space-based technologies facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031?", "desc": "Illegal wildlife trade is a major global problem, threatening biodiversity and fueling organized crime. Space-based technologies, such as satellite imaging, could potentially be used to track and mitigate this illegal trade by providing near real-time monitoring of wildlife habitats, migration routes, and poaching activities. However, such a global system would require significant technological, legal, and diplomatic efforts.", "resc": "1. The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report the successful establishment of an effective global system, facilitated by space-based technologies, for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade.\n2. To be considered \"effective\" the system must be reported to produce a 5% measurable decrease in illegal wildlife poaching (or if no quantifiable estimate is provided a characterization of the reduction as \"significant\" or otherwise substantial).\n3. The space-based system need not be the sole contributor to the reduction, but their contribution should be identifiable and significant. For example, ground-based cameras that communicate via satellites to track wildlife and poaching activity would qualify.\n4. The use of satellites to produce better estimates that show less poaching does not qualify, satellite facilitated observation has to be directly implemented in enforcement.\n5. If no such system is established, or if it is not reported to be effective before 2031, the question will resolve as **No**.\n6. The onus of this question is on establishing the effectiveness of these technologies in achieving the stated goals, and conflicting reports, or ambiguous or mixed evidence, will not be sufficient.", "prediction": "53%"}
+{"title": "Will an East African Federation exist and govern before 2040?", "desc": "*This question and the background material below are copied from a [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11667/east-african-federation-before-2030/). While that version asks about the ratification of an agreement to form the East African Federation it may be that such an agreement is ratified without a functional East African Federation actually being formed. Or alternatively, an East African Federation could be formed by the merger of two countries and not satisfy the three country requirement of the other question.*\n\n---\n\nThe [East African Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Federation) (Swahili: *Shirikisho la Afrika Mashariki*) is a proposed political union of the seven sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda – as a single federated sovereign state. The idea of this Federation has existed since the early 1960s, but has not yet come to fruition for a variety of reasons. In September 2018, [a committee was formed](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ready-for-a-united-states-of-east-africa-the-wheels-are-already-turning-1403564) to begin the process of drafting a regional constitution, and a draft constitution for the confederation was set to be written by the end of 2021 with its implementation by 2023; however, it is likely that this deadline will be [missed](https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/03/east-african-federation-looks-set-for-further-delay/).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2040, a treaty constituting the East African Federation has legally come into effect and there is credible reporting that constituent states are taking steps towards making the Federation effective. Specifically, credible reports must be available that any one or more of the following has occurred:\n\n1. The Federation becomes a member of the [United Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations) or [African Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Union).\n2. The Federation officially accedes as a party to any of the following treaties:\n * Geneva Convention\n * Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons\n3. At least two constituent states enact laws, according to their internal legal requirements, proclaiming their dissolution as sovereign states, and these laws come into force.\n4. Common (not diplomatic or official) passports are issued to citizens in the name of the Federation only, without mentioning the constituent State, and these are routinely used for travel.\n5. Embassies of constituent states to each other are closed, redundant embassies in third countries are consolidated, single embassies of one constituent state are converted to Federation embassies, or new Federation embassies opened.\n6. A Federation government passes laws about matters delegated to it by the constituent states according to a constituent treaty, and those laws are actually enforced after coming into force.", "prediction": "15%"}
+{"title": "Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?", "desc": "This question is inspired by the linked [Long Bet](https://longbets.org/868/) between Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon.\n\nThe bet concerns US total factor productivity, which is a nice proxy for economic productivity and living standards. \n\n> \"Where does 1.8 percent fit into the historical record? For perspective consider the productivity growth record over five intervals: 3.2 percent per year (1948-72), 1.5 (1973-95), 3.3 (1996-2004), 2.1 (2005-2009), and 1.1 (2010-2019). \" - Robert Gordon\n\nThe question concerns the viability and efficacy of now emerging technologies and current economic trends in influencing total factor productivity growth for the 2020s.", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if [Long Bets](https://longbets.org/about/) or the Long Now Foundation declares that private nonfarm business productivity growth has averaged over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4), and therefore Erik Brynjolfsson has won the bet with Robert J Gordon.\n\nIt resolves No if Robert J Gordon is declared the winner.\n\nThe question resolves early if either Erik Brynjolfsson or Robert J Gordon concedes the bet.\n\nIf Long Bets or the Long Now Foundation does not declare a winner before January 1, 2031, Metaculus administrators will resolve the question using US Bureau of Labor Statistics when the 2029 Q4 data becomes available. If this source of data is not available, Metaculus will use the closest analogous source of information.", "prediction": "35%"}
+{"title": "Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?", "desc": "Space-based carbon capture is a hypothetical concept based on the [method of carbon removal](https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/system-rid-space-station-astronaut-exhalations-inspires-earth-based-co2-removal#:~:text=The%20CO2%20breathed%20by%20astronauts,to%20the%20vacuum%20of%20space) in the International Space Station. The concept involves using specific technologies to capture and store atmospheric carbon dioxide to launch it into space. While the idea is still largely theoretical and presents various technical and ethical challenges, it represents an innovative approach that could add another tool in the fight against climate change.\n\nCurrent carbon capture technologies focus mainly on terrestrial storage, such as injecting captured carbon into geological formations. However, the concept of space-based carbon capture opens new frontiers for consideration. It would require advancements in carbon capture technology, rocket propulsion, and storage solutions, as well as addressing numerous ethical concerns, such as the potential risks associated with launching potentially hazardous materials into space.\n\nGiven the increasing urgency of climate issues and the innovative potential of space-based carbon capture, will a proof-of-concept experiment be successfully completed before 2031?", "resc": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture is successfully completed and the results are publicly reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2031.\n2. The experiment must specifically focus on \"space-based carbon capture,\" which involves capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide to launch it into space.\n3. The experiment must be considered a \"proof-of-concept,\" meaning it demonstrates the basic feasibility of capturing carbon dioxide from the Earth's atmosphere and preparing it for space-based storage or disposal.\n4. \"Successfully completed\" means that the experiment completed its stated goals or objectives, as reported by the team conducting the experiment or as confirmed by peer review or other independent evaluation. The results need not demonstrate the feasibility of the method, negative results are sufficient.", "prediction": "5%"}
+{"title": "Will a city with a population of over 1 million people publicly credit the use of high-resolution satellite imagery in reducing traffic congestion in a specific area before 2031?", "desc": "Traffic congestion is a persistent problem in many large cities, affecting quality of life and contributing to environmental degradation. High-resolution satellite imagery and other data analytics tools [offer city planners a new layer of insights](https://ts2.space/en/satellite-imagery-and-the-future-of-smart-cities/) for making more informed decisions. These technological advancements have the potential to be used in various aspects of urban planning, including strategies aimed at reducing traffic congestion. As cities search for innovative solutions, will high-resolution satellite imagery be publicly credited for its role in a successful traffic reduction project before 2031?", "resc": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, a city anywhere in the world with a population of over 1 million people credits high-resolution satellite imagery in reducing traffic congestion in one or more areas in the city.\n2. The city must publicly credit high-resolution satellite imagery as a significant tool used in a project to reduce traffic congestion in a specific area. High-resolution satellite imagery need not be the only tool mentioned, but it must be mentioned as playing an important role in the congestion reduction efforts.\n3. The credit must be given in an official capacity, such as in a press release, public announcement, or governmental report.\n4. The project must result in a documented reduction in traffic congestion in the specified area.", "prediction": "49%"}
+{"title": "Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?", "desc": "A CBDC is a digital currency issued by a country's central bank. They are similar to cash, but they exist only in digital form. CBDCs can be used for both retail and wholesale payments. Retail CBDCs are designed for use by individuals and businesses. They can be used to make payments for goods and services, just like cash. Whereas wholesale CBDCs are designed for use by financial institutions to settle payments between banks and other financial institutions.\n\nThe Federal Reserve's FedNow system went live on July 20th, 2023 to replace the Fedwire system, and is to all intents and purposes a wholesale CBDC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230720a.htm\n\nCBDCs offer a number of potential benefits, such as faster and cheaper payments compared to traditional payment methods, such as checks and wire transfers. They also claim to increase financial inclusion by making it easier for people to access and use digital money.\nCBDCs can also reduce risk of fraud by providing a more secure and transparent way to make payments.\n\nHowever, there are also some challenges associated with CBDCs, such as privacy concerns as all transactions are recorded on a central ledger. This raises all kinds of ethical, and security issues. That's because the technology behind CBDCs will enable every transaction to potentially be monitored and controlled in real-time by the governments and central banks that issue them. \nAs of March 2023, over 90 central banks are exploring the possibility of issuing CBDCs, and a number of them have already launched pilot projects. This suggests that there is a growing consensus among central banks that CBDCs have the potential to improve the efficiency and security of the financial system.", "resc": "This question resolves as Yes if a statement appears on the Federal Reserve's official website https://www.federalreserve.gov stating that a US retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) aka “digital dollar” has officially gone live and has become available for use by the public before January 1, 2031.", "prediction": "30%"}
+{"title": "Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?", "desc": "The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the \"Disqualification Clause\" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have \"engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S.], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.\" Given the events surrounding the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, this section has become a subject of considerable debate with respect to former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run for federal office again.\n\nIn New Hampshire, Bryant \"Corky\" Messner, an attorney who ran for U.S. Senate in 2020 with Trump's endorsement, has [expressed intentions to file a legal challenge](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/08/29/trump-14th-amendment-new-hampshire-gop-feuds-as-states-grapple-with-disqualifying-trump-from-ballot/?sh=70038b512e9a) questioning Trump's 2024 candidacy under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The Republican Secretary of State of New Hampshire, David Scanlan, while not actively seeking to remove any candidates, has stated that he will seek legal advice on the issue. Additionally, Michigan's Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has indicated that she will seek a legal opinion on this matter. Voters have also filed lawsuits in Florida and Michigan on the issue. Legal battles are widely expected, and these disputes might reach the U.S. Supreme Court.\n\nThis question focuses on whether these and similar ongoing discussions and legal challenges will result in Donald Trump being removed from the general election ballot of any state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment by November 5, 2024, the date of the presidential election.\n\n**Note: This question focuses on removal from a general election ballot. Another question focuses on Trump's removal from a [primary ballot](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18716/trump-removed-or-blocked-from-primary-ballot/).**", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, *on* November 5, 2024:\n\nDonald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the *general election* ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.\n\nThe removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, legal documentation, or credible media reports. Speculative reports, opinion pieces, or unofficial announcements will not suffice for resolution.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if these conditions are not met on November 5, 2024.\n\nNote: The question does not account for legal battles, appeals, or subsequent reversals that might occur *after* the mentioned date. It strictly pertains to whether Donald Trump has been removed from any state's general election ballot for a federal office under the specified grounds as of November 5, 2024. If Trump is removed or blocked from a general election ballot and then reinstated, such that as of November 5th he is not removed or blocked from any general election ballot, the question resolves negatively.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will there be a successful coup in Cameroon before 2026?", "desc": "[Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) has served as the President of Cameroon since 1982, making him one of the longest serving presidents in Africa. \n\nThere have been a string of coups throughout the continent in the last year including other [former French colonies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_French_possessions_and_colonies#In_Africa) Niger and Burkina Faso.\n\nCameroon is [scheduled](https://www.eisa.org/election-calendar/) to have [presidential elections in 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that an armed group has seized control of the government of Cameroon for a period of 7 days or more after September 8, 2023 and before January 1, 2026. The coup need not be brought by violence or assassination of heads of state, but must not occur due to normal democratic processes such as a free democratic election or voluntary resignation by heads of state.", "prediction": "20%"}
+{"title": "Will the US deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029?", "desc": "During the Republican presidential primary debate on August 23 2023, several candidates expressed willingness to deploy US military forces in Mexico to combat drug cartels [1]. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has spoken against such intervention [2].\n\n## Sources\n\n1. [GOP talk of military action in Mexico sparks dire warnings](https://thehill.com/latino/4170236-gop-talk-of-military-action-in-mexico-sparks-dire-warnings/)\n2. [GOP embraces a new foreign policy: Bomb Mexico to stop fentanyl](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/10/gop-bomb-mexico-fentanyl-00091132)", "resc": "The question will resolve YES if reputable sources report ALL of the following before January 1 2029:\n\n- US military forces conduct military action in Mexico.\n\n- Leaders in the Mexican government, to include the President or Secretary of Foreign Affairs, condemn this action or otherwise indicate that the Mexican government did not cooperate.\n\nThe question will otherwise resolve NO.", "prediction": "3%"}
+{"title": "Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?", "desc": "Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.\n\nThere have been four previous questions of this type on Metaculus. Each of them resolved as “No.”\n\n-\t[Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3900/will-the-us-see-a-massive-riot-in-2020/) by Jgalt\n-\t[Will there be a major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2021?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6244/large-scale-rioting-in-us-in-early-2021/) by Jgalt\n-\t[Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15573/huge-riots-in-the-us-before-april-15th-2023/) by Matthew_Barnett\n-\t[Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4536/will-the-us-see-widespread-rioting-in-2020/) by juancambeiro", "resc": "Several resolution criteria for these types of questions have been put forward. I prefer the latest offered by Jgalt: \n\nFor the purposes of this question, 'major civil unrest or rioting' is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:\n\n- At least 50 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n-\tAt least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\nThese counts will be cumulative for any given 30-day period. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many.\n\nFor deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths must occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 50. \n\nFurther, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). \n\nSuicides also do not count.\n\nArrests must also be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest.", "prediction": "55%"}
+{"title": "Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2031?", "desc": "The Metaculus community has projected the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 (Unemployed and looking for work) unemployment rate for the US at around 3% through 2027. \n\n-\t[What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following year?]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14064/us-annual-average-u-3-unemployment-rate/) by RyanBeck\n\nPresumably, if some new data emerged indicating a shock to the labor markets, the Metaculus community would reassess their forecasts and possibly increase the percentage. \n\nWhat percentage point might be considered a shock to the labor market? In December, 2018, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Jgalt asked if the US unemployment rate would reach 10%. This question resolved “Yes” at 14.7% in April 2020.\n\n-\t[Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/) by Jgalt\n\nUsing Jgalt's criteria, a US unemployment rate of 10% or higher could be viewed as evidence of a shock to the labor markets.\n\nThis question asks if the US will reach 10% unemployment (seasonally adjusted) at any point before January 1st 2031.", "resc": "For a positive resolution, data confirming 10% or greater unemployment must be sourced from the [United States Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/), or if that body no longer exists, credible media reports in the financial press.", "prediction": "40%"}
+{"title": "Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?", "desc": "[Incidents of civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots), during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. \n\nA more recent, albeit less severe, example of a riot (or civil unrest) is the [January 6 United States Capitol attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack) which cuminated in a coordinated attack on the US Capitol building by far-right, pro-Trump militias resulting in 5 deaths and injuries exceeding 100 persons.\n\nThis question asks: **Will the United States experience an incident of a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?**", "resc": "For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale riot' is defined as an event of rioting (large-scale disturbance of the peace by a violent crowd) or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:\n\n>1. At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n>2. At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n>3. Property damages are credibly estimated at $1 billion or more. This estimate may come from either the local government of the locality in which the incident takes place, the state government, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.\n\nSuch events should take place in a 100km radius, and within 14 days. As an example, the [1992 LA riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots) would count, but rioting that is spread across all of California or that occurs in separate phases over a long time period would not count if no single incident met any of the above criteria.\n\nResolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting.", "prediction": "12%"}
+{"title": "Will a fourth manufacturer enter the NASCAR Cup Series before 2030?", "desc": "Ever since [Dodge left the NASCAR Cup Series after the 2012 season](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a18744961/why-dodge-pulled-the-plug-on-its-nascar-program/), only three manufacturers have remained in the series: Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota. [Speculation has abounded](https://www.jayski.com/2020/10/01/honda-not-currently-interested-in-coming-to-nascar/) [for many years](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/a30351017/next-gen-what-we-know-about-nascars-new-car/) that a new manufacturer will join the series, [or that Dodge will return](https://twitter.com/A_S12/status/1579650835084369921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1579650835084369921%7Ctwgr%5E7833c022a2de9318836a1b21aca8b43ff232c7de%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportscasting.com%2Fdodge-reportedly-has-cooled-on-nascar-return-but-does-it-matter%2F).", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if there is an official announcement from NASCAR that a fourth manufacturer will race in the NASCAR Cup series before the 2030 season.", "prediction": "68%"}
+{"title": "Will any member country leave BRICS before 2035?", "desc": "[BRICS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS) is a group of countries that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, acting as a competitor and political counterweight to the [G7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G7) group of countries . In 2024, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will join the bloc. There are [concerns](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/28/china/china-brics-expansion-victory-intl-hnk/index.html) that expanding BRICS will benefit China, while hurting more countries like India and Brazil, which share more developing economies compared to G7, but which have higher political or trade ties to Western countries comprising the G7. \n\nIn the case that political tensions grow between China (or China-leaning) and Western-leaning BRICS members, it is plausible that one or more BRICS countries will elect to leave the bloc.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2035, a member country of BRICS will cease being a member. Otherwise, the question will resolve as **No**.", "prediction": "60%"}
+{"title": "Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?", "desc": "Ukraine's *de jure* territory includes all of Crimea plus the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. While the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was illegitimate, the peninsula is not included in this question. The purpose of this question is to create a conditional pair with a proposed one about Donald Trump being US president, to measure the impact of a Trump presidency on the likelihood of a Ukrainian defeat against the aggressor.", "resc": "This question resolves based on a comparison of the territory controlled by Ukraine at the resolution date (2029-02-24, seven years after the Russian invasion) and its 2013 territory excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.\n\n![\"Annexation](\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/Annexation_of_Southern_and_Eastern_Ukraine.svg/1920px-Annexation_of_Southern_and_Eastern_Ukraine.svg.png\")
\n\nIt resolves as **Yes** if there is any part of the 2013 territory (represented in yellow and pink), excluding Crimea and Sevastopol (represented in striped area), that Ukraine does not de facto control in 2029.", "prediction": "90%"}
+{"title": "Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premiere League season?", "desc": "Erling Haaland plays for Manchester City, a football team which competes in a number of competitions, including the Premier League.", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if Erling Haaland is the player with the largest number of goals after each of the 20 PL teams plays their 38th game of the 2023/24 season, [according to Oracle Cloud via the PL website](https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/goals?se=578)", "prediction": "77%"}
+{"title": "Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?", "desc": "*This question is modeled on [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18606/trump-removed-or-blocked-from-the-ballot/), but asks instead about the possibility of Trump's removal from primary election ballots.*\n\nThe 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the \"Disqualification Clause\" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have \"engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S.], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.\" Given the events surrounding the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, this section has become a subject of considerable debate with respect to former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run for federal office again.\n\nIn New Hampshire, Bryant \"Corky\" Messner, an attorney who ran for U.S. Senate in 2020 with Trump's endorsement, has [expressed intentions to file a legal challenge](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/08/29/trump-14th-amendment-new-hampshire-gop-feuds-as-states-grapple-with-disqualifying-trump-from-ballot/?sh=70038b512e9a) questioning Trump's 2024 candidacy under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The Republican Secretary of State of New Hampshire, David Scanlan, while not actively seeking to remove any candidates, has stated that he will seek legal advice on the issue. Additionally, Michigan's Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has indicated that she will seek a legal opinion on this matter. Voters have also filed lawsuits in Florida and Michigan on the issue. Legal battles are widely expected, and these disputes might reach the U.S. Supreme Court.\n\nThis question focuses on whether these and similar ongoing discussions and legal challenges will result in Donald Trump being removed from the primary election ballot of any state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment by July 15th, 2024, the planned start of the 2024 Republican National Convention.", "resc": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, *on* July 15, 2024:\n\nDonald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.\n\nThe removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, legal documentation, or credible media reports. Speculative reports, opinion pieces, or unofficial announcements will not suffice for resolution.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if these conditions are not met as of July 15, 2024.\n\nNote: The question does not account for legal battles, appeals, or subsequent reversals that might occur *after* the mentioned date. It strictly pertains to whether Donald Trump has been removed from any state's primary election ballot for a federal office under the specified grounds as of July 15, 2024. If Trump is removed or blocked from a ballot and then reinstated, such that as of July 15th he is not removed or blocked from any ballot, the question resolves negatively.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?", "desc": "The UK and India are pursuing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). While both sides are keen to sign a deal (for political and economic reasons), there are some sticking points (on issues like IP, migration, digital), and FTAs generally take quite a long time (3-10 years) to negotiate. From the UK PM Rishi Sunak's perspective, getting a deal signed before the next General Election could be politically useful.\n\n[UK-India FTA, UK Parliamentary Committee](https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmintrade/77/report.html)\n\nThere is no firm date for the next UK General Election, but it has to take place (by law) by the end of January 2025. Many experts believe it will most likely be between May-November 2024.", "resc": "This question will resolve positively if reliable news sources report that a Free Trade Agreement has been signed by a representative from the UK Government and a representative from the Indian Government. This must be called a Free Trade Agreement, as defined by the World Trade Organization, and not another kind of agreement. This agreement does not have to be ratified to resolve positively, just signed.", "prediction": "20%"}
+{"title": "Will there be widespread adoption of e-fuels in the US before 2050?", "desc": "While much of the current media coverage about the future of cars focuses on the adoption of battery-electric vehicles, lesser known (but probably just as important) is [Porsche's efforts to make a carbon-negative \"e-fuel.\"](https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2023/sustainability/porsche-perspectives-sustainability-interview-karl-dums-31632.html) If successfully implemented, the current fleet of internal combustion engine cars around the world could remain in operation while reducing carbon emissions. It would also allow the gas station infrastructure to remain intact. [However, e-fuels are currently rather expensive and require a large amount of non-green electricity to make.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d0MPg7DxbY)\n\nAs can be seen in this [chart](https://www.statista.com/statistics/188448/total-us-domestic-demand-for-gasoline-since-1990/), U.S. domestic demand for gasoline was 127.71 billion gallons in 2020. For the purpose of this question, 25 billion gallons of e-fuels purchased in America in any given year would constitute widespread adoption of e-fuels.", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if it is widely reported by credible news sources that at least 25 billion gallons of e-fuels were purchased for use in road vehicles in America in any year before 2050. If not, this question will resolve as No.", "prediction": "28%"}
+{"title": "Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?", "desc": "Recent [analyses](https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/how-chinas-water-challenges-could-lead-global-food-and-supply-chain-crisis) have [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/water-scarcity-china-and-india-look-the-most-threatened-from-shortages.html) that China is facing a growing water scarcity crisis that may have a significant impact on energy production, food availability, and access to domestic fresh water supplies. Factors leading to this impending catastrophe include water-intensive practices of multinational corporations operating in China, inefficient manufacturing, construction, and agriculture processes, and the impact of climate change. The Chinese government is making every effort to mitigate the crisis through water imports and [desalination](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-makes-desalination-push-ease-water-scarcity-2021-06-02/). The PRC has also recently initiated projects to transfer water from water-rich to water-scarce areas. One example is the [South-North Water Diversion Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South%E2%80%93North_Water_Transfer_Project), which aims to alleviate shortages in the north. The government believes the project's long-term benefits will go some way to alleviating the problem, but the project won't be fully complete until at least [2050](https://ceas.uchicago.edu/sites/ceas.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/sti2010-okeefe-water-diversion-china.pdf).\n\nIn the meantime if there's a risk of civil unrest as a result of widespread water shortages, one drastic solution might be to encroach into Russian territory to obtain access to [Lake Baikal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Baikal) as it contains around 20% of the world's fresh water. \n\nThe forecasting curation organization Foresight Bureau explores this possibility in more detail in their video: [“Will China occupy a region of Russia by 2045?”](https://tinyurl.com/CH-RUwaterwar)", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2046, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the People's Republic of China has launched an invasion of any area of Russian territory, defined as at least 100 overtly flagged military personnel from the [People's Liberation Army](https://www.nytimes.com/) having been deployed over the Russian border, with the operation believed to be for the purpose of placing any area of Russia's sovereign territory under the control of the PRC.", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will the United States return to the gold standard before 2050?", "desc": "The gold standard was a monetary system where the value of a country's currency was directly tied to a specific quantity of gold. Under this system, paper money and coins were convertible into a fixed amount of gold, creating stability in currency values. The United States adopted the gold standard in the 19th century, and it played a significant role in shaping the country's monetary policy until it was effectively abandoned in the 20th century.\n\nKey historical milestones related to the gold standard in the United States:\n\n19th Century Adoption: The United States officially adopted the gold standard in 1834 with the passage of the Coinage Act. This set the price of gold at $20.67 per ounce.\n\nCivil War Era: During the Civil War (1861-1865), the U.S. government temporarily suspended the gold standard to finance the war effort, leading to the issuance of \"greenback\" paper money. The gold standard was reinstated after the war.\n\nBimetallism: In the late 19th century, there was a debate over bimetallism, which would allow both gold and silver to back the currency. This debate culminated in the 1896 presidential election, where William McKinley (pro-gold standard) defeated William Jennings Bryan (pro-silver standard).\n\n20th Century Abandonment: The United States effectively abandoned the gold standard during the Great Depression in the 1930s. President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102 in 1933, requiring individuals and institutions to turn in their gold holdings to the government in exchange for paper currency. The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 devalued the dollar in terms of gold.\n\nBretton Woods System: After World War II, the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 established a modified gold standard where the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold, and other currencies were pegged to the dollar. This system lasted until 1971 when President Richard Nixon ended the dollar's convertibility into gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system.\n\nCurrent Monetary System: Since 1971, the United States has operated on a fiat currency system, where the value of the dollar is not directly tied to a physical commodity like gold. The Federal Reserve controls the money supply and adjusts interest rates to manage the economy.\n\nThe question of whether the United States will return to the gold standard is a complex and highly debated topic. Advocates of a return to the gold standard argue that it would provide greater monetary stability and prevent excessive inflation. Critics, on the other hand, argue that it would limit the flexibility of monetary policy in responding to economic crises.\n\nFactors that would influence the likelihood and timing of a return to the gold standard include:\n\n- Economic conditions, including inflation rates and the stability of the U.S. dollar.\n\n- Political dynamics and the views of policymakers in Washington.\n\n- International monetary developments and agreements.\n\n- Public opinion and support for the gold standard.\n\n- Advances in technology and changes in the global economy.", "resc": "The question will resolve positively if the United States government returns to the gold standard before 2050. The resolution should rely on publicly available information that is widely accessible and not subject to dispute or controversy.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will mind uploading happen before AGI?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Idaho gain at least one of Oregon's counties before 2040?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "3%"}
+{"title": "Will Turkey recognize the Armenian genocide before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "66%"}
+{"title": "Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "28%"}
+{"title": "Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "8%"}
+{"title": "Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least on the scale of GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "66%"}
+{"title": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "58%"}
+{"title": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "5%"}
+{"title": "By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "45%"}
+{"title": "Will Russia purchase an American weapons system before 2050?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "25%"}
+{"title": "Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "51%"}
+{"title": "Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "20%"}
+{"title": "Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "66%"}
+{"title": "Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "99%"}
+{"title": "Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "15%"}
+{"title": "Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "4%"}
+{"title": "Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060?", "desc": "According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/)\n\nHowever, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown.", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces Cooper Flagg's induction before January 1, 2060. Otherwise, it will resolve as No.", "prediction": "20%"}
+{"title": "Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?", "desc": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). Some reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas's Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel's borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That's something we're looking at very carefully, and we've got to see where the facts lead.\n\nTensions between the US and Iran have been high in recent years following the [US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#U.S._denies_recertification_and_then_withdraws_(2017%E2%80%93present)) in 2017, the [US assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani), and Iran's [enrichment of uranium](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753) to levels approaching those needed to create a nuclear weapon. Some observers [have expressed fears of war](https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/01/are-us-and-iran-really-brink-war) between the two countries.\n\nThe [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/) (UCDP) has been collecting data on organized violence for nearly 40 years. The UCDP tracks and categorizes conflicts and conflict deaths according to a [specific set of definitions](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/). The following sample of conflicts involving the US illustrate some of the different categorizations (note that these categorizations may not necessarily correspond to those specified in the resolution criteria):\n\n* The [2003 Iraq war](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/420) involved Australia, the UK, and the US [as primary parties on one side of the conflict](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/420/1), with Iraq as the primary party on the other side.\n* In the [conflict between Yugoslavia and Kosovo](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/412) the NATO member countries, including the US, [are listed individually in 1999 as secondary warring parties](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/412/1) reflecting NATO's [bombing of Yugoslavia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia).\n* In the [conflict between Iran and Israel](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/14609) the United States is [listed as a secondary warring party](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/14609/1#2020) starting in 2020 when the US assassinated Soleimani and [Iran's retaliatory attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani#IRGC_retaliatory_strike) against US military bases in Iraq.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined the following is true:\n\n* The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports that both the United States and Iran are primary parties on opposite sides of a conflict resulting in 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\").\n\nOR\n\nBoth of the following are true:\n\n* The US government reports that at least 25 US military personnel have died as a result of military conflict with Iran (the deaths must be caused by conflict with Iranian combatants).\n* The conflict with Iran and the US on opposite sides is reported by the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) to have resulted in 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\").\n\nThe 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's [methodology](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/methodology/) in calculating conflict deaths.", "prediction": "11%"}
+{"title": "Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?", "desc": "[According to wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone)\n>The Cascadia subduction zone is a 960 km (600 mi) fault at a convergent plate boundary, about 112-160 km (70-100 mi) off the Pacific Shore, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis that could reach 30m (100 ft). \n\nMost recently, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone on January 26, 1700, with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.7–9.2. Some geologists have predicted a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9.0 or higher in the next 50 years, and other have stated the risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher in the next 50 years. \n\nSee also Kathryn Schulz' Pulitzer Prize winning piece [The Really Big One](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one)", "resc": "This question will resolve Yes if the New York Times, Associated Press, Seattle Times, Portland Tribune, Globe and Mail, or Vancouver Sun reports a 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone before January 1, 2034.", "prediction": "25%"}
+{"title": "Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?", "desc": "The next Australian Federal Election is expected [between August 2024 and May 2025](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2223/Quick_Guides/WhenIsTheNextElection2022). A typical election is for every seat in the lower house — the House of Representatives — and half the seats in the upper house — the Senate. This question concerns the seat of Sturt, a lower house seat in South Australia.\n\nSturt is one of the most marginal seats currently held by the Liberal Party, with a margin of just 0.5%. The incumbent, James Stevens, is in his second term, having succeeded Christopher Pyne at the 2019 election. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since 1972. The ABC provides an overview [here](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/stur) from the last election. Although Labor has never won the seat, the very small margin suggests that this is nonetheless a possibility.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Australian Electoral Commission](https://www.aec.gov.au/) declares the result of this seat for the ALP candidate in the next Australian Federal Election. The question will resolve in the negative if any other party wins the seat, or other factors mean that nobody wins the seat.", "prediction": "30%"}
+{"title": "Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?", "desc": "On October 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas launched a [surprise offensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) against Israeli forces surrounding the Gaza strip, occupying considerable territory inside internationally-recognized Israeli borders. Israeli counterattacks in the early days of the war expelled the Palestinian fighters from most of the territory they captured. However, Israeli leadership has insisted on launching a ground offensive into the Gaza strip in order to fully eliminate Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups operating in the territory. \n\nAs of October 24, 2023, Israel's ground offensive has been [delayed](https://news.sky.com/story/israeli-diplomat-explains-gaza-ground-offensive-delay-is-no-bad-thing-to-avoid-hamass-deadly-trap-12991638#:~:text=Hamas%20took%20more%20than%20220,rest%20are%20still%20being%20held.) multiple times. Israeli officials have argued that the country's armed forces required additional time to plan rescues of hostages, retrain troops, gain intelligence on Palestinian military operations/defense plans, and conduct artillery and airstrike preparation. Nonetheless, this has raised questions regarding whether or not Israel is capable of capturing the Gaza strip using conventional means with acceptable losses. While Israel officially denies having nuclear weapons, it is [widely believed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) to possess them, given information leaks and statements by Israeli officials. Moreover, Israeli officials have [suggested](https://www.newsweek.com/israeli-official-calls-doomsday-nuclear-missile-option-1833585) that the country could use nuclear weapons against Hamas if necessary, or if it is attacked by external actors such as Hezbollah or Iran.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that Israel has used nuclear weapons as an act of war before 12:00 AM on October 7, 2024. Any Israeli nuclear detonation occurring within territory *de facto* controlled by another state or group will resolve this question as Yes, unless that other nation unambiguously states that such a detonation was done with its government's consent. Nuclear detonations done as tests or accidents will not resolve the question as Yes, as well as those done in territory not *de facto* controlled by any group, such as international waters. A nuclear detonation occurring inside territory *de facto* controlled by Israel will resolve this question as Yes if at least one casualty (death or injury) occurs as a direct result of this detonation outside of this territory within a nation or area which unambiguously condemns Israel's actions within 30 days of this detonation occurring. If this does not occur by the resolution date, the question resolves as **No**.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?", "desc": "Since 2017 there has been news of the US government investigating UFOs/UAPs, recovering crashed vehicles, and recovering alien bodies. The US may soon pass a “UAP Disclosure Act” that would exercise eminent domain of any technology recovered from \"biologics\" or “non-human intelligence.” This was a notable change of terminology from “extraterrestrial” to allow for beings that originate or currently reside on Earth. [1]( https://www.npr.org/2023/07/27/1190390376/ufo-hearing-non-human-biologics-uaps)\n\nThere is additionally more evidence being found in the archaeological record that ancient ancestors of homo sapiens may have built tools and shelters. [2](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66846772)\n\nGiven the background of these recent events, what is the probability that evidence will be presented and accepted for the existence of a non-human intelligence on Earth at the present or sometime in the past?", "resc": "* For the context of this question, Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) means any life forms that demonstrate intelligence and excludes any life forms created by humans (Homo sapiens), including any AI systems created by humans or by AIs that derive from humans. Human-derivative AI intelligences are not the focus of this question. \n* Intelligence here is defined by the ability to build technology at least to the level of metallurgy.\n* Evidence for existence can include the recovery of NHI technology or biological material (bodies) that are indisputably non-human and intelligent\n* Evidence for presence on Earth means the technology or body was found within Earth's atmosphere (right now or anytime in the past).\n* Evidence is considered scientifically accepted if it is published in multiple peer-reviewed journals, or if multiple reputable sources unequivocally report the discovery of NHI.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?", "desc": "[Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.\n\n", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2026, Russia has de facto control of specific key locations which it currently controls as of October 30, 2023, and also controls two or more additional specified locations that it currently does not. Resolution will be determined according to maps produced by the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/interactive-map-russias-invasion-ukraine) (ISW). The relevant locations are listed below, and also shown in a map embedded in the background section.\n\nRussia must have control of **at least two** of the following locations:\n\n* Mikolaiv: Admiralska St, 20, Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine, 54000\n* Zaporizhzhia: Sobornyi Ave, 206, Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhia Oblast\n* Kharkiv: Konstytutsii Square, 7, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61000\n* Odesa: Dums'ka Square, 1, Odesa, Odesa Oblast, Ukraine, 65000\n* Lozova: Lozova City Council, Vulytsya Yaroslava Mudroho, Lozova, Kharkivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 64600\n* Sumy: Sumy City Council, Nezalezhnosti Square, 2, Sumy, Sums'ka oblast, Ukraine, 40000\n* Chernihiv: Chernihiv City Council, Mahistrats'ka St, 7, Chernihiv, Chernihivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 14000\n\nRussia must also have control of **all** of the following locations:\n\n* Simferopol - Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol\n* Nova Kakhovka - Горсовет, Prospekt Dniprovsʹkyy, 23, Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, 74900\n* Svatove - Avtoshlyakh R 66, Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, 92600\n* Donetsk - Artema St, 98, Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 83000\n* Tokmak - Central St, 45, Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 71700", "prediction": "40%"}
+{"title": "Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?", "desc": "Most basic foods in Germany are only taxed by 7% VAT. Plant-based milk is currently taxed at the default 19%. [Recently, the Green party and the governing SPD talked about reducing the VAT for plant-based milks.](https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/verbraucher/mehrwertsteuer-milchersatzprodukte-100.html)", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** based on credible reports that the German government has reduced the VAT rate for plant-based milks to the same VAT that is used for cow's milk, which is currently 7%. This change must be announced an implemented before January 1, 2025.", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?", "desc": "The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action. This question pertains to the [carrier vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_the_United_States_Navy) (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as [LHD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing_helicopter_dock)'s).", "prediction": "5%"}
+{"title": "Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?", "desc": "Cornell professor [Russell Rickford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_J._Rickford) referred to the October 7 attacks on Israel as [exhilirating](https://www.nationalreview.com/news/cornell-professor-takes-leave-of-absence-after-calling-hamas-attacks-exhilarating-and-energizing/). Subsequently, nearly 5000 members of the Cornell University community [demanded](https://archive.ph/1jK3T) that Rickford be fired. A [petition](https://www.change.org/p/demand-cornell-university-to-terminate-associate-professor-russell-for-hate-speech) to fire him gathered thousands of signatures. Rickford has taken a leave of absence. Cornell is [committed](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) to protecting academic freedom. The [Faculty Statement on Academic Freedom and Responsibility](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) states:\n\n>Academic Freedom for the Faculty means: Freedom of expression in the classroom on matters relevant to the subject and the purpose of the course and of choice of methods in classroom teaching; from direction and restraint in scholarship, research, and creative expression and in the discussion and publication of the results thereof; to speak and write as a citizen without institutional censorship or discipline. . . \n\n>Academic freedom is valued very highly at Cornell, and the University Faculty defends it tenaciously; nevertheless, the same University Faculty is disinclined to see the concept abused. Academic freedom does not imply immunity from prosecution for illegal acts of wrongdoing, nor does it provide license for faculty members to do whatever they choose.\n\nIn recent years, there has been significant controversy around free speech and academic freedom in the Ivy League, especially around the free speech of centrist and right-leaning professors. [Amy Wax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Wax) has [come](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/us/upenn-law-professor-racism-freedom-speech.html) [under fire](https://quillette.com/2023/03/06/amy-wax-and-academic-freedom/) for remarks that some people have perceived as racist, and the dean of Penn law has started a [faculty review process](https://archive.is/www.inquirer.com/news/amy-wax-penn-law-sanctions-20220118.html) that could lead to sanctions against her. [Joshua Katz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Katz_(classicist)) was [fired](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/us/princeton-fires-joshua-katz.html) by Princeton for a consensual relationship he had with a student in the mid-2000s, though many [suspect](https://quillette.com/2022/05/26/the-firing-of-joshua-t-katz/) the true cause is an [article](https://quillette.com/2020/07/08/a-declaration-of-independence-by-a-princeton-professor/) he wrote in Quillette.", "resc": "This question resolves positively if Cornell officially announces before January 1st, 2030, (such as through its website, its communication team, or its leadership) that Russell Rickford is no longer a faculty member at Cornell or if credible sources report that Rickford is no longer a faculty member at Cornell.\n\nImportant to note: a leave of absence, whether paid or unpaid, would not trigger a positive resolution of the question.", "prediction": "58%"}
+{"title": "Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?", "desc": "There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/):\n\n>Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention.\n>\n>When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any three of the following government or media sources conclude that Israel has used white phosphorus in an illegal or improper manner any time after October 7, 2023:\n\n* The United Kingdom\n* The United States\n* France\n* Germany\n* Japan\n* South Korea\n* Israel\n* The United Nations\n* The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)\n* Reports published by one of the following sources and based on independent investigations conducted by the same source or commissioned by the same source each also count as one qualifying report\n * BBC\n * The Guardian\n * AP\n * Reuters\n\nThe use of white phosphorus must be explicitly stated by these sources, including an assertion that the use was improper or illegal, and the reported use must occur within the stated timeframe. Negative statements do not in themselves resolve this question as **No**. The question will resolve as **No** if no such use is reported by the deadline. Any use reported after the deadline will not count towards the resolution of this question.", "prediction": "5%"}
+{"title": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?", "desc": "On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip.\n\nThe next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October. \n\nThe United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has [accused both sides of war crimes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-rights-chief-says-war-crimes-committed-both-sides-israel-hamas-conflict-2023-11-08/#:~:text=Israel%20has%20bombarded%20Gaza%20unrelentingly,including%20many%20women%20and%20children.).\n\n>CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago.\n\n>\"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages,\" Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza.\n\n>\"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians,\" he added.\n\nThe [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/), headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the [Rome Statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has [claimed jurisdiction](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-attack-would-fall-under-jurisdiction-war-crimes-court-prosecutor-2023-10-12/#:~:text=THE%20HAGUE%2C%20Netherlands%2C%20Oct%2012,prosecutor%20told%20Reuters%20on%20Thursday.) over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, [writing](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/law-israel-hamas-international-criminal-court-icc)\n\n> My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank.\n\n> Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions.\n\nOn November 16, 2023, South Africa [referred Israel to the ICC](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africa-refers-israel-icc-gaza-attacks-pressure-104937581). South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said:\n\n> “As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court,\" Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar.\n\n> “We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added.", "resc": "This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2026, the International Criminal Court brings charges against Benjamin Netanyahu.\n\nPer the [Rome Statute](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf)—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following [categories](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works):\n\n- Genocide\n- Crimes against humanity\n- War crimes\n- Crimes of aggression\n- Offences against the administration of justice\n\nThe ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "prediction": "17%"}
+{"title": "Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?", "desc": "Late October 2023, [a new pastry called the _crompouce_](https://nltimes.nl/2023/10/28/tiktok-craze-bakery-crompouce-becomes-new-pastry-sensation) [went viral in The Netherlands](https://www.iamexpat.nl/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/crompouce-croissant-tompouce-hybrid-takes-over-dutch-tiktok). A crompouce is a hybrid between a croissant and the traditional Dutch pastry [tompouce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tompouce). News outlets attribute the hype to TikTok. Many local bakeries jumped in on the hype and started selling crompouces, [as did supermarket chain Albert Heijn](https://www.ah.nl/producten/product/wi567589/ah-crompouce). On the other hand, Hema (one of the most iconic stores that sell the traditional tompouce) started a humorous campaign that rejects the crompouce and advertises their classic tompouce. In [an interview published by newspaper AD on November 5th](https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/crompouce-leidt-tot-weerstand-in-bakkerswereld-je-kunt-overal-wel-room-tussen-stoppen~adee2d7a/), one baker said “I predict the hype is over in a few weeks”.\n\nIs the crompouce a fad, or is it here to stay?", "resc": "This question resolves positive if, on April 30, 2024, crompouces are available for purchase on ah.nl, the website of supermarket Albert Heijn.", "prediction": "99%"}
+{"title": "Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?", "desc": "#### From the [ Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\nA humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n\n####Current progress\n\nBy 2025, China aims to establish an initial humanoid robot innovation system, achieving breakthroughs in crucial components such as “brains, cerebellum, and limbs,” while ensuring a safe and efficient supply of core components. The production level for these robots is expected to reach an advanced international standard, with mass production occurring. These robots are anticipated to demonstrate their effectiveness across various fields, from manufacturing to livelihood services.\n\nAmong China's most advanced projects are those by Xiaomi and Fourier Intelligence. Xiaomi is working on its CyberOne, a robot that is supposed to be capable not only of perceiving space in 3D, but also of recognising individuals and interpreting their gestures, expressions and emotions. Combined with artificial intelligence, it could one day interact directly with humans. For its part, Fourier Intelligence is preparing to launch its first humanoid robot, the GR-1, specialised in medical actions, capable of moving at 5 km/h and carrying loads of several dozen kilogrammes. Its first deliveries are scheduled for 2024.\n\n####For more details on China's progress see:\n\n* https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/11/china-ministry-pushes-for-humanoid-robot-mass-production-by-2025-and-100-billion-market-by-2030.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter\n* https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2023/11/09/china-aims-to-mass-produce-humanoid-robots-by-2027\n* https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3240259/china-says-humanoid-robots-are-new-engine-growth-pushes-mass-production-2025-and-world-leadership", "resc": "The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate a robotics company with headquarters in China has manufactured more than a thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before the end of 2025.", "prediction": "2%"}
+{"title": "Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?", "desc": "#### From the [Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\n> A humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n####[Current progress on Optimus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot))\n\n> Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a conceptual general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc. It was announced at the companies Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day event on August 19, 2021. CEO Elon Musk claimed during the event that Tesla would likely build a prototype by 2022.\n\n> Tesla CEO Elon Musk at AI Day 2022 unveiled the companies progress showing Optimus which shuffled across a stage, waved, and pumped its arms in a low-speed dance move. The robot could cost $20,000 within three to five years, Musk said.\n\n> Musk said on X in May 2023 that the \"Optimus Team is making excellent progress\". Tesla then posted a progress update of Optimus in a YouTube video in October 2023 with accompanying text saying it's \"now capable of self-calibrating its arms and legs.\"\n\n[The video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2vj0WcvH5c) shows the robot sorting building blocks by colour using its hands, vision, and Tesla's on-board neural net. The clip ends with Optimus doing some yoga stretches. \n\n####For more details on Tesla's progress see:\n* https://www.cnet.com/home/smart-home/tesla-reveals-optimus-a-walking-humanoid-robot-you-could-buy-in-2027/\n* https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-humanoid-robots-tesla-hiring-workers-2023-11?r=US&IR=T\n* https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/16/23726139/tesla-robot-update-video-shareholder-meeting", "resc": "The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate Tesla has manufactured at least one thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before January 1, 2028.", "prediction": "2%"}
+{"title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?", "desc": "The US Supreme Court in June of 2021 [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\n\n>In 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n\n>. . .\n\n>On March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n\n>. . .\n\n>It remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court's longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court's decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\n\nA provision requiring women to register appeared in both the [2021](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/06/ndaa-women-draft-dropped-523829) and [2022](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-12-07/us-congress-covid-vaccine-8332200.html) versions of the Senate Armed Services Committee's proposed [National Defense Authorization Acts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Authorization_Act), but was ultimately removed each year.", "resc": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service before January 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from credible sources that women are required to register. To resolve as **Yes**, the law must take effect, resulting in women registering for the draft due to the requirement; a court decision or the enactment of a law that required women to register at a future date would not count until it came into effect, and a legal requirement to register on or after January 1, 2026 would not count.", "prediction": "2%"}
+{"title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?", "desc": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance.", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete in 2024 but must at least be announced in 2024. For a transaction to count, more than 50% of TikTok US has to be sold.\n\nIf TikTok is not sold before 2025, or is banned within the US and remains banned for the entirety of 2024, this question will resolve as No.\n\nIf TikTok successfully conducts an initial public offering by end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.", "prediction": "28%"}
+{"title": "Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?", "desc": "Israel has pushed [1.7 million people](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-20/ty-article/1-7-million-palestinians-displaced-from-their-homes-in-gaza-un-says/0000018b-ee55-d6a0-a7ff-ee779f3f0000), much of the Gazan population, into the southern half of the strip and [intends to expand its war](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-offensive-crowded-south-gaza-will-put-civilians-crosshairs-2023-11-18/) to the strip's southern border with Egypt.\n\nThe New York Times [reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/world/middleeast/israel-egypt-gaza.html) that Israel has petitioned Egypt to accept mass numbers of refugees. At least [one Israeli government document](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-30/ty-article/.premium/israeli-govt-document-suggests-possible-relocation-of-gazans-to-northern-sinai/0000018b-7ff6-d1da-a1bb-7ffe83ed0000) explored the possibility of resettling Gazans in Sinai and concluded that it is the best of the available options.", "resc": "The question will resolve **Yes** based on credible reports that 500,000 or more Palestinians have left Gaza before December 31st 2025.\n\nReports of displacement within Gaza - for instance, from the north to the south - are not sufficient to resolve this question.", "prediction": "46%"}
+{"title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", "desc": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\n\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 15% or more of the national popular vote, and **No** if one does not", "prediction": "1.5%"}
+{"title": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?", "desc": "[Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas) launched a deadly attack on Israel on the 7th of October 2023. Subsequently, Israel executed air strikes and military ground operations in Gaza.", "resc": "This question will resolve Yes if any member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force is charged by the International Criminal Court before January 1, 2027 for any crime in relation to Isreal's military actions in Gaza following Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7th 2023.\n\nPer the [Rome Statute](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf)—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following [categories](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works):\n\n- Genocide\n- Crimes against humanity\n- War crimes\n- Crimes of aggression\n- Offences against the administration of justice\n\nThe ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "prediction": "35%"}
+{"title": "Will Pete Rose be reinstated by MLB by 2045?", "desc": "Pete Rose is the MLB hit champion with 4,256 career hits. He had an extended stint as a player and manager of the Cincinnati Reds. He was banned by Commissioner Bart Giamatti after an investigation revealed that he had gambled in games that he managed, although the reports produced no evidence that he ever bet against his team.\n\nOther plays banned from the game for gambling related offensives, such as \"Shoeless\" Joe Jackson, were never reinstated.\n\nHe is still recognized and commemorated by the Reds since his number 14 has been retired.", "resc": "A positive resolution would occur if Pete Rose has been declared eligible for the Hall of Fame by Major League Baseball before January 1, 2045. \n\nAs for \"reinstatement\", a decree from Major League Baseball that explicitly declares that Pete Rose (specifically) or other banned individuals (generally but understood to be inclusive of Rose) can be admitted to the Hall of Fame without directly stating that Rose has been \"reinstated\" or declared \"eligible\" would count as a \"reinstatement\". This decree would have to come from Major League Baseball as it would not be sufficient for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum to allow Pete Rose to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Such as scenario can count as \"reinstatement\" only in the event that Pete Rose has died, since a deceased Pete Rose would not enjoy the other privileges that eligible people can enjoy, such as employment on the behalf of a professional baseball club affiliated with MLB.\n\nIf Pete Rose is reinstated or posthumously declared eligible for the Hall of Fame by Major League Baseball, but the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum does not admit Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame, that would be sufficient for a positive resolution.", "prediction": "30%"}
+{"title": "Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?", "desc": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman's departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\n\nIt is not yet known in what areas, or why, Altman was \"not consistently candid\" with the OpenAI board.", "resc": "This question resolves Yes if before January 1, 2026, Sam Altman has been indicted in the United States on any charge(s) alleging violation of state or federal law. The question resolves No if this does not occur.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?", "desc": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman's departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\n\nIn a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he would have news on next steps soon.\n\nShortly thereafter, OpenAI President and Chairman of the Board Greg Brockman tweeted \"[I quit](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1725667410387378559).\"", "resc": "The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2025, both Sam Altman and Greg Brockman are either:\n\n1. Cofounders of a new company that aims to train foundation models\n2. Employees of an existing company that aims to train foundation models\n\nThat company must not be OpenAI. They must both be cofounders or employees at the same company.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?", "desc": "On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.\n\nSince then, reports have emerged that the [U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/).\n\nAdobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe [no longer lists XD in its product lineup](https://www.adobe.com/products/catalog.html) and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store.", "resc": "This question resolves as Yes if Adobe announces that it has completed a deal to acquire Figma before January 1, 2025.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Argentina fully dollarize its economy before 2028?", "desc": "On November 19th, 2023, Argentina [elected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-readies-vote-likely-presidential-election-thriller-2023-11-19/) Javier Milei as President. His political party, [the Libertarian Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_Party_(Argentina)) will hold 7 of 72 seats in the upper house of Argentina's Congress and 38 of 257 in its lower house.\n\nMilei has promised to fully dollarize the economy and get rid of the Argentinean peso which means the US dollar (USD) would be the only state-recognized form of exchange in Argentina. De facto dollarization, where citizens partially or primarily conduct their business in USD is [arguably](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/argentina-dollar-love-affair-agonizes-over-divorcing-peso-2023-09-05/) already the status quo in Argentina. \n\nThis move is controversial among economists with [some](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-18/argentina-s-future-is-promising-with-the-dollar) in support due to what they see as irresponsible monetary policy by Argentina's central bank. It is opposed by [others](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/javier-milei-dollar-plan-argentina-economy) who note the logistical issues with dollarizing and monetary sovereignty concerns.", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before, 00:00 on January 1, 2028, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Argentina has removed the peso as a medium of exchange and adopted the US dollar.", "prediction": "15%"}
+{"title": "Will any \"Freedom Cities\" be built in the United States before 2040?", "desc": "Donald Trump, aiming for a 2024 presidential bid, proposed building up to [10 \"freedom cities\"](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/03/trump-policy-futuristic-cities-00085383) on federal land, featuring futuristic concepts like flying cars. \n\n> Trump says he would host a contest for the public to design and then build “Freedom Cities” on a small portion of federal land to “reopen the frontier, reignite American imagination, and give hundreds of thousands of young people and other people, all hardworking families, a new shot at home ownership and in fact, the American Dream.”\n\nThis plan, part of his vision to lead America in air mobility and away from China, lacks detailed funding strategies.", "resc": "This question will resolve to **Yes** if the U.S. federal government approves a \"Freedom City\" before January 1, 2040, and credible reports indicate at least 10,000 people live in the city before that date. The city must be a new development and not a reclassification of an existing city.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"Freedom City\" will be any new city created on federal land that is the result of a competitive process to solicit new ideas for America's future.", "prediction": "8%"}
+{"title": "Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?", "desc": "KalshiEX LLC [sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/predictions-market-kalshi-sues-cftc-blocking-election-contracts-2023-11-01/) for overstepping its authority by rejecting its proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. Kalshi argued these contracts, aimed at hedging against economic risks from political changes, don't involve unlawful acts and are in the public interest. The CFTC declined to comment but previously expressed concerns about the contracts involving unlawful gaming and not being in the public's interest. The lawsuit claims the CFTC violated the Administrative Procedures Act.", "resc": "This question will resolve **Yes** if either of the following occurs before November 1, 2024:\n\n1. An initial litigated bench or jury verdict rules that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) overstepped its authority by rejecting KalshiEX LLC's proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. \n2. A settlement is reached such that the proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control is approved.\n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve **No**", "prediction": "15%"}
+{"title": "Will Sam Altman Use Microsoft Teams before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "40%"}
+{"title": "Will \"Krantz data\" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will 20 million people follow a new, AI-created religion by the end of 2035?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "2%"}
+{"title": "Will any country score in the top tier overall in the next Global Health Security Index?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "20%"}
+{"title": "Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "29%"}
+{"title": "Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "68%"}
+{"title": "Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "83%"}
+{"title": "Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "74%"}
+{"title": "Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "62%"}
+{"title": "Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "66%"}
+{"title": "Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "80%"}
+{"title": "Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "18%"}
+{"title": "Will Walmart stores in the United States return to 24-hour service before 2026?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "18%"}
+{"title": "Will Mark Zuckerberg remain as CEO of Meta Platforms until October 21, 2031?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "50%"}
+{"title": "Will any 100% AI-generated legislation be passed in the U.S. before 2040?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "25%"}
+{"title": "Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?", "desc": "", "resc": "", "prediction": "53%"}
+{"title": "Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?", "desc": "SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, constantly evolves through genetic mutations and recombinations, leading to numerous variants that differ from the original strain.\n\nSARS-CoV-2 variants are categorized based on their genetic mutations and the resulting public health implications. These categories include Variants of Interest (VOI), Variants of Concern (VOC), Variants of High Consequence (VOHC), and Variants Being Monitored (VBM). Each classification represents a different level of threat based on factors such as transmissibility, severity of disease, and impact on diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive measures. The detailed definitions and criteria for these classifications can be found on the [CDC's variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html).\n\n - A Variant of Concern (VOC) includes those that show increased transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., higher hospitalizations or deaths), or significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies from previous infection or vaccination. \n- A Variant of High Consequence (VOHC), a more severe classification, is characterized by clear evidence of significantly reduced effectiveness of medical countermeasures. \n\nCurrently no SARS-CoV-2 variants are designated as VOC or VOHC. The last VOC was Omicron, which emerged in November 2021 and caused a [worldwide wave](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/one-year-since-the-emergence-of-omicron) of cases. At its peak, Omicron [exceeded 20,000 daily hospital admissions](https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/) in the United States for a period of approximately 2 weeks", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2023, and before July 1, 2025, all three of the following occur:\n\n1. The SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group announces or [classifies on CDC's SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html) at least one new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) or Variant of High Consequence (VOHC) that was not previously identified as a VOC or VOHC at any point.\n2. Daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the United States reach 20,000 or higher according to [data provided by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/tree/master/data-truth).\n3. The surge of COVID hospitalizations (described in requirement 2) is attributed to the variant(s) (described in requirement 1) by the CDC or other credible sources. Not every hospitalization needs to be attributed to the variant(s) identified in requirement 1; it is sufficient if sources attribute the unusually large number of cases to the VOC(s).", "prediction": "3.8%"}
+{"title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?", "desc": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV that occurs in the 2023-24 season is less than or equal to four weeks (28 days) from the date of the maximum rate for all three combined, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The four weeks will be based on the week end dates. The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters. For the purposes of this question, the 2023-2024 season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the relevant figures for the current season is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.", "prediction": "99.8%"}
+{"title": "Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "desc": "[Relations between Morocco and Algeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algeria%E2%80%93Morocco_relations) have historically been rocky. [A brief war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sand_War) was fought in the early 1960s over the border delineation, and Morocco has been fighting a [low-intensity conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_conflict) with the Algeria-backed Sahrawi Republic for control of the Western Sahara since the 1970s. [Political tension in 2021 caused the two countries to break off diplomatic relations,](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/algeria-breaks-off-diplomatic-ties-with-neighbouring-morocco-1.4655723), leading to [some speculation](https://www.memri.org/reports/always-approaching-never-arriving-war-between-algeria-and-morocco) about a [potential war.](https://politicstoday.org/morocco-algeria-tension-long-history-of-mistrust/)", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Morocco and Algeria (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Morocco and the government of Algeria).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Morocco and the government of Algeria. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "prediction": "33%"}
+{"title": "Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "desc": "In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a [border clash that led to dozens of deaths on both sides.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) This was [the second time in as many years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) that the two countries had fought an armed conflict regarding the border. Although a peace deal was signed in late 2022, [there remains fears](https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan-building-up-for-another-potential-round-of-fighting) about another, potentially larger round of hostilities.", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Kyrgyzstan and the government of Tajikistan).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Kyrgyzstan and the government of Tajikistan. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "prediction": "30%"}
+{"title": "Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "desc": "[Tensions are currently high between the Philippines and China](https://www.foxnews.com/world/philippine-coast-guard-constructs-new-surveillance-base-south-china-sea-monitor-chinese-vessels) after a boat collision in the South China Sea. This is the latest in a [long series of disputes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Philippines_relations) between the two countries. 93% of Filipinos are concerned about a military confrontation with China.", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2050, either of the following occurs:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Philippines and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Philippines and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nThese 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period.\n\nThis question will resolve as No otherwise.", "prediction": "18%"}
+{"title": "Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "desc": "[Afghanistan and Pakistan have fought border skirmishes for many decades.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes#) [Some have suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/15/pakistan-afghanistan-taliban-border-war/) that [war between the two countries](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/why-are-tensions-rising-between-pakistan-and-afghanistan/2954687) is likely now that the Taliban are back in charge of Afghanistan.", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Afghanistan and Pakistan (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Afghanistan and the government of Pakistan).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Afghanistan and the government of Pakistan. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "prediction": "25%"}
+{"title": "If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?", "desc": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n\n[Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/)\n[Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/)\n[If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20378/brazil-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana/)\n\nWith tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that the United States would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://time.com/5512005/venezuela-us-intervention-history-latin-america/) [There is historical precedent for this.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change_in_Latin_America)\n\nThis question asks: will the United States fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela?", "resc": "If Venezuela does not launch a full-scale invasion of Guyana before January 1, 2030, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous. If Venezuela does invade Guyana, this question will resolve as Yes if the United States responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Venezuelan invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/), Venezuela will be considered to have launched an invasion of Guyana if that question resolves positive at any time.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Venezuelan infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the American government or American military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Venezuelan nationals, will count", "prediction": "65%"}
+{"title": "If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?", "desc": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n\n[Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/)\n[Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/)\n[If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20377/us-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana-2030/)\n\nWith tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that Brazil would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-increases-northern-border-military-presence-amid-venezuela-guyana-spat-2023-11-29/) This is notable as Brazil has not fought any of its neighbors since the [Paraguayan War.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War)\n\nThis question asks: will Brazil fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela?", "resc": "If Venezuela does not launch a full-scale invasion of Guyana before January 1, 2030, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous. If Venezuela does invade Guyana, this question will resolve as Yes if Brazil responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Venezuelan invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/), Venezuela will be considered to have launched an invasion of Guyana if that question resolves positive at any time.\n\nBrazil will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Venezuelan infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the Brazilian government or Brazilian military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Venezuelan nationals, will count", "prediction": "36%"}
+{"title": "Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?", "desc": "### Scope\n\nThis is the question of whether Trump will hold supreme executive power in the United States rather than a specific political office. At the moment, the President is granted that power by the constitution. However, Caesar and Napoleon both created the role of Emperor for themselves, and Hitler created the role of Führer. If such a role were to be created in the United States, its occupant would have supreme executive power even if the position was not called \"President\".\n\n### Background\n\nRobert Kagan [recently wrote an article](https://web.archive.org/web/20231201202312/https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/trump-dictator-2024-election-robert-kagan/) noting similarities to pre-WWII Germany in popular sentiment and political speech, worrying that Trump would become a dictator. In April, the movie studio A24 is releasing the movie \"[Civil War](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDyQxtg0V2w)\", featuring a three-term US President.\n\nTrump has said that if elected, he'll be [a dictator \"only on day one\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/06/donald-trump-sean-hannity-dictator-day-one-response-iowa-town-hall) in order to close the southern border and expand oil drilling.\n\n[In 2020, he said](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics/donald-trump-third-term-2024/index.html), \"We are going to win four more years, and then after that, we'll go for another four years because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years.\"\n\nHowever, more recently, [Trump responded to DeSantis' statement](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4208782-trump-rules-out-seeking-a-third-white-house-term-if-he-wins-reelection/) that people should vote for DeSantis because he's elegible for eight years in the White House, unlike Trump: \"When somebody says eight years, we need eight years, no. In six months to a year, many of the problems, almost all of the problems that you and I have just spoken about will be solved. Anybody that says they need eight years, you don't want that person.\" One might read that as saying Trump wouldn't try to obtain a third term, but one also might read that as simply downplaying his opponent's abilities.\n\nThe [22nd Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-22/) prohibits people from being elected to the office of President more than twice. The [12th Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-12/) says, \"no person constitutionally ineligible to\nthe office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.\" One might think that a twice-elected president would be \"ineligible\" for the role of Vice President, but because \"eligibility\" refers to [Article II, Section 1, Clause 5](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/#II_S1_C5), which specifically address whether a person is\n\"eligible to the Office of the President,\" [it has been argued](https://digitalcommons.law.uga.edu/fac_artchop/1012/) that a twice-elected president could subsequently run as Vice President and then become President if the President steps down, is removed from power, or dies.", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is elected President of the United States in the 2024 Presidential Election, and is still exercising supreme executive power in the United States on January 21, 2029.\n\nThe question resolves **No** if Trump does not win the 2024 election, or if Trump is not exercising supreme executive power in the United States on January 21, 2029.\n\nThe term \"supreme executive power,\" for the purposes of this question, is defined as any US government office with powers equivalent to or superseding the presidency, including the presidency itself.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?", "desc": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese firms start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\nCurrently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips.", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 domestically designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report. It resolves as **No** otherwise.", "prediction": "95%"}
+{"title": "Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?", "desc": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer fails to become competitive enough at the high end for Chinese firms to start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has failed to hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI will continue to be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\nCurrently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips.", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 U.S.- or U.S.-allied-designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report. It resolves as **No** otherwise.", "prediction": "25%"}
+{"title": "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?", "desc": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese labs start using their chips in frontier model training runs, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a [frontier Chinese AI model](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/) has more than 50% of its training compute provided by AI chips that were both designed and fabricated by Chinese firms.\n\nIf there is no frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, then this question will be **Annulled**. If there is at least one frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, but none of these models have more than 50% of their training compute provided by chips designed and fabricated by Chinese firms, then the question resolves as **No**.", "prediction": "50%"}
+{"title": "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?", "desc": "Presently, there is nothing to stop Chinese AI developers from carrying out training runs using US [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing)/infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS), on account of an [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/) loophole: While Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, and the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled.\n\nChinese AI developers have not yet made use of this loophole to carry out a frontier AI model training run. However, as they become increasingly hamstrung by physical export controls, the loophole might present an increasingly attractive path forward.", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any [frontier Chinese AI model](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/) is trained using [cloud compute / infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) provided by a US firm](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20880/us-restricts-chinese-iaas-access-by-2025/).\n\nIf there is no frontier Chinese AI model before 2025, then this question will be **Annulled**. If there are one or more frontier Chinese AI models before 2025, but none are trained using US IaaS, then this question resolves as **No**.\n\nA “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the firms located there, counts as being part of China.\n\n------\n\nWhether a Chinese firm has developed a “frontier” model is defined as in the “[Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/)” question. In other words, frontier means either i) trained with an amount of compute that's within one order of magnitude of that of the leading AI model in the world at the time, or ii) top 10 in the world, according to [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard's](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) Areno ELO rating.\n\nFor i, we will use Epoch AI's \"[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)\" database as the resolution source.", "prediction": "40%"}
+{"title": "Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?", "desc": "Sam Altman is back as a CEO in Open AI, but there is a new board, investigation and many open questions about his behavior. \n\n1. Washington Post: [OpenAI leaders warned of abusive behavior before Sam Altman's ouster](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/12/08/open-ai-sam-altman-complaints/)\n2. New York Times: [Inside OpenAI's Crisis Over the Future of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/technology/openai-altman-inside-crisis.html)", "resc": "The question resolves Yes if credible sources report Sam Altman has left OpenAI after February 2, 2024 and before Jan 1, 2025.", "prediction": "4%"}
+{"title": "If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?", "desc": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nOn October 30, 2023, the Biden administration issued [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) “on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence“. The order seeks to [set guardrails](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ai-artificial-intelligence-executive-order-cb86162000d894f238f28ac029005059) on AI development and includes a number of requirements for monitoring existing uses of AI and addressing risks involved in future AI developments.\n\nIn particular, the order sets reporting requirements for training large AI models that meet the definition in Section 3(k):\n\n>(k) The term “dual-use foundation model” means an AI model that is trained on broad data; generally uses self-supervision; contains at least tens of billions of parameters; is applicable across a wide range of contexts; and that exhibits, or could be easily modified to exhibit, high levels of performance at tasks that pose a serious risk to security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters, such as by:\n>\n>(i) substantially lowering the barrier of entry for non-experts to design, synthesize, acquire, or use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons;\n>\n>(ii) enabling powerful offensive cyber operations through automated vulnerability discovery and exploitation against a wide range of potential targets of cyber attacks; or\n>\n>(iii) permitting the evasion of human control or oversight through means of deception or obfuscation.\n>\n>Models meet this definition even if they are provided to end users with technical safeguards that attempt to prevent users from taking advantage of the relevant unsafe capabilities. \n\nThe order requires that any companies developing, training, or planning to train such a model must report their intent to the government and provide information regarding security measures, ownership of model weights, and results of red-teaming tests. Specifically, in Section 4.2(a):\n\n> 4.2. Ensuring Safe and Reliable AI. (a) Within 90 days of the date of this order, to ensure and verify the continuous availability of safe, reliable, and effective AI in accordance with the Defense Production Act, as amended, 50 U.S.C. 4501 et seq., including for the national defense and the protection of critical infrastructure, the Secretary of Commerce shall require:\n>\n>(i) Companies developing or demonstrating an intent to develop potential dual-use foundation models to provide the Federal Government, on an ongoing basis, with information, reports, or records regarding the following:\n>\n>(A) any ongoing or planned activities related to training, developing, or producing dual-use foundation models, including the physical and cybersecurity protections taken to assure the integrity of that training process against sophisticated threats;\n>\n>(B) the ownership and possession of the model weights of any dual-use foundation models, and the physical and cybersecurity measures taken to protect those model weights; and\n>\n>(C) the results of any developed dual-use foundation model's performance in relevant AI red-team testing based on guidance developed by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, and a description of any associated measures the company has taken to meet safety objectives, such as mitigations to improve performance on these red-team tests and strengthen overall model security. Prior to the development of guidance on red-team testing standards by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, this description shall include the results of any red-team testing that the company has conducted relating to lowering the barrier to entry for the development, acquisition, and use of biological weapons by non-state actors; the discovery of software vulnerabilities and development of associated exploits; the use of software or tools to influence real or virtual events; the possibility for self-replication or propagation; and associated measures to meet safety objectives; and\n>\n>(ii) Companies, individuals, or other organizations or entities that acquire, develop, or possess a potential large-scale computing cluster to report any such acquisition, development, or possession, including the existence and location of these clusters and the amount of total computing power available in each cluster.\n\nSection 4.2(b) also sets forth a compute threshold for which the reporting in 4.2(a) is required:\n\n>(b) The Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Energy, and the Director of National Intelligence, shall define, and thereafter update as needed on a regular basis, the set of technical conditions for models and computing clusters that would be subject to the reporting requirements of subsection 4.2(a) of this section. Until such technical conditions are defined, the Secretary shall require compliance with these reporting requirements for:\n>\n>(i) any model that was trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 1026 integer or floating-point operations, or using primarily biological sequence data and using a quantity of computing power greater than 1023 integer or floating-point operations; and\n>\n>(ii) any computing cluster that has a set of machines physically co-located in a single datacenter, transitively connected by data center networking of over 100 Gbit/s, and having a theoretical maximum computing capacity of 1020 integer or floating-point operations per second for training AI.\n\nWhile campaigning on December 2, 2023, Donald Trump [reportedly said](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/trump-vows-cancel-biden-executive-order):\n\n>When I'm reelected, I will cancel Biden's artificial intelligence executive order and ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on day one.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is elected president in 2024 **and**, on December 31, 2025, regulation is in place in the United States that satisfies the following:\n\n* All companies developing, training, or planning to train a dual-use foundation model with more than \\(10^{26}\\) integer or floating-point operations must provide the US federal government with all of the following information:\n * Notification of activities and plans related to dual-use foundation models, including security protections taken to safeguard the training process against threats.\n * Information on the ownership of model weights and security protections taken to protect model weights.\n * For developed models, the results of red-teaming activities.", "prediction": "30%"}
+{"title": "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?", "desc": "In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of Ukraine and of most of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in its East, leading to a protracted conflict.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine. One of its first objectives was to seize the band of territory in Ukraine's southeast, between the Azov Sea and the Dnipro river, which connects Crimea in the south and Donetsk and Luhansk in the East.\n\nThrough the Spring and Summer of 2022, Ukraine achieved a series of counteroffensive victories and expelled Russian forces from a large area of the country. In September, Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in his [programmatic article](https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html) on Ukraine's coming campaign of 2023, called Crimea the \"*center of gravity of the enemy*\" and advised planning operations to seize it. Removing the Russian protective belt around the peninsula would be the first step towards achieving this goal. If executed simultaneously with destroying the Crimean bridge near Kerch it would cut off Crimea from supplies by land. Already in August, Arestovych, an advisor to president Zelensky, had [floated the idea]( https://www.unian.net/war/arestovich-schitaet-uspeh-v-melitopole-strategicheski-vazhnym-dlya-vsu-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11935857.html) of an offensive on Melitopol, a key transportation hub on the land bridge, and opined that its success would collapse the entire Russian frontline. \n\nIn November 2022, with their supply lines in serious danger from Ukrainian artillery, the Russian occupiers fled Kherson for the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro, leaving the southeastern land bridge as the obvious next objective. Several Russian military bloggers predicted a land bridge offensive, with variations in timing, possible tactics and the exact direction of attack, e.g. [Dimitriev](https://t.me/russ_orientalist/12458), [MIG]( https://t.me/mig41/22148), [Moscow Calling]( https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/14259), [Nesmiyan]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947) and [Saponkov]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947).\n\nOn the Ukrainian side, the [New York Times cited](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-strategy-russia.html) \"*hints from the troops on the ground and volunteers close to them*\" that preparations for such an offensive were in the works. Russian forces were said to be aware of the danger and [to have been reinforcing their units and fortifying their lines]( https://ria.ru/20221019/svo-1825016250.html) in the Southeast for some time.\n\nThere is some flexibility with the direction of the offensive. Ukraine can strike in the east, towards Mariupol, in the center, towards Berdyansk or Melitopol (the most discussed option), or even in the west, from the newly captured Kherson towards Henichesk. Cutting the land bridge in two could be a first step to reoccupying it entirely, leaving Russia with no more territory than it started with, and potentially bringing the war closer to its termination.\n\nThe Ukrainian offensive [began in June 2022](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/), but as of December 2023, it does not appear close to severing the land bridge, and in fact there are [significant doubts about its chances](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/) [of](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/us/politics/us-ukraine-war-strategy.html) [success](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/07/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war-drones-stalemate/). Even so, [Ukraine will still get F-16s and other weapon systems](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-imminent-f-16s-arrival-only-part-of-broader-defense-talks-mod-reveals/ar-AA1ldR3c), and [Zelenzky appears determined to keep fighting](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-zelenskyy-counteroffensive-results-ap-interview/), [despite](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67636302) political difficulties for providing military aid.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) or other reliable sources report Ukraine has severed the land bridge from Crimea to Russia at some point between November 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025, 00:00 [EET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_European_Time).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, severing the land bridge is defined as extending the overall zone of Ukrainian territorial control continuously from Kyiv to some point on the southeastern coastline from Henichesk in the southwest along the Azov sea northeast to the Russian border. Control means physical occupation; indirect control by artillery or other fires, by destroying infrastructure, etc does not suffice", "prediction": "2%"}
+{"title": "Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?", "desc": "Rep. Kevin McCarthy has announced his intention to resign from the house before the end of 2023 (and before the end of his term). Subsequently, the Governor of California is mandated by CA state law to schedule a special election to replace McCarthy. [More information about the process can be found here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_California%27s_20th_congressional_district_special_election). The election is will likely happen in April or May 2024.", "resc": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a Republican wins the first special election for California's 20th congressional district held in 2024, as verified by the [California Secretary of State](https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/).\n\nIf no special election is held for CA-20 in 2024, the question is annulled.", "prediction": "99.9%"}
+{"title": "Will Berkshire Hathaway pay a dividend before 2027?", "desc": "[Berkshire Hathaway](https://www.berkshirehathaway.com), led by Warren Buffett since the 1960s, has grown into a $750 billion enterprise, largely due to its strategy of reinvesting profits or buying back shares instead of paying dividends. The company paid its only dividend under Buffett's long tenure around the time he started. Buffett maintains that [dividends would only be considered if Berkshire runs out of investment ideas](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021615/why-doesnt-berkshire-hathaway-pay-dividend.asp) or can't repurchase shares at favorable prices. As the company grows, finding high-return investments becomes challenging. With Buffett now 93 and Berkshire's massive size, speculation arises about a potential dividend, which would mark a significant shift in investing philosophy and could impact global investor sentiments.", "resc": "This question resolves **Yes** if Berkshire Hathaway Inc. officially announces the payment of a dividend at any point before January 1, 2027. \n\nThe source of resolution will be an official statement by Berkshire Hathaway or a reputable financial news source citing such an official statement. \n\nIn the event that Berkshire Hathaway is confirmed to have paid a dividend prior to the end of 2026, the question immediately resolves **Yes.**", "prediction": "15%"}
+{"title": "Will the US sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2030?", "desc": "According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-easing-venezuela-oil-sanctions-response-election-deal-official-2023-10-18/):\n\n> The Biden administration...broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election - the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas.\n\n> A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation.", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, credible sources report that sanctions on Venezuelan oil have been (re)imposed by the United States.\n\nAny imposition or reimposition of sanctions that were not in effect on December 15, 2023, will be sufficient for resolution. This includes a reversal of the Biden-administration's sanction relief.", "prediction": "65%"}
+{"title": "Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales, during the next Parliament?", "desc": "A target set out in the 2019 Conservative manifesto for 300,000 homes a year by the mid-2020s was scrapped by Rishi Sunak last year and to date has not been replaced. \n\nSpeaking to BBC One's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg at the start of Labour's annual conference in Liverpool, Starmer said his party would set a target of 1.5m new homes over five years\n\nSince 2017, on average, approximately 170k \"dwellings\" per year have been completed in England and Wales.", "resc": "This resolves to \"Yes\" if, during the [59th UK Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parliaments_of_the_United_Kingdom), an average of more than 200k dwellings are completed in England and Wales, per year, according to the [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted).", "prediction": "20%"}
+{"title": "Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?", "desc": "The UK's Conservative Party [won control of Parliament in 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election) under David Cameron. Since then, the Conservatives have maintained control of Parliament. One of the key issues over the last decade was Britain's relationship with the European Union and its policies on immigration, with Conservatives ultimately paving the way for Brexit, while the Labour Party and other left-wing groups favored remaining.\n\nConservative leadership has been divided in recent years. In spite of this apparent weakness, Labour has also lacked a key leader, and the rise of the Scottish National Party, which shares appeal with Labour (their founder was Scottish), has led to a loss of most seats from Labour to the SNP. Some Scottish constituencies have experienced vote-splitting between Labour and the SNP, allowing Conservatives to gain seats there.\n\nCurrently, British law requires that the next general election be held [no later than January 28, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).", "resc": "This question resolves as \"Yes\" if the BBC reports that the Labour Party has won a majority of seats in the House of Commons after the next UK general election that takes place after December 13, 2023. Otherwise, the question resolves as \"No.\"\n\nFor the purpose of this question all MPs of the Labour and Co-operative Party are considered Labour MPs.", "prediction": "95%"}
+{"title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?", "desc": "The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2024 is higher than that on December 29, 2023.", "prediction": "86%"}
+{"title": "Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?", "desc": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**\n", "resc": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for November, 2024 is greater than 4.0%. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2024 by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).", "prediction": "44%"}
+{"title": "If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?", "desc": "On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court issued a ruling [barring Donald Trump from appearing on the state's ballot in 2024](https://www.sos.state.co.us/). In a [4-3 decision](https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/02nd_Judicial_District/Denver_District_Court/11_17_2023%20Final%20Order.pdf), \"“a majority of the court holds that Trump is disqualified from holding the office of president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.\"\n\n> “We do not reach these conclusions lightly,” [the Colorado majority opinion reads](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/colorado-disqualify-donald-trump-00132578). “We are mindful of the magnitude and weight of the questions now before us. We are likewise mindful of our solemn duty to apply the law, without fear or favor, and without being swayed by public reaction to the decisions that the law mandates we reach.”\n\nTrump vowed to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.", "resc": "The question resolves **Yes** if:\n\n1. Donald Trump is the [Republican Nominee for President of the United States in 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n2. Donald Trump's name appears as the Republican candidate on the general election ballot used by voters in the the state of Colorado on Election Day, according to the [Colorado Secretary of State](https://www.sos.state.co.us/)", "prediction": "99%"}
+{"title": "Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?", "desc": "Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the pancreas produces little or no insulin, resulting in elevated blood sugar levels. Current standards of care involve insulin therapy and blood glucose monitoring but do not cure the underlying condition.\n\nPotential cures in development include cell therapies to restore insulin-producing cells, gene therapies to modulate the immune system, and approaches to encapsulate therapeutic cells. Several clinical trials are underway exploring these methods, with the goal of restoring natural insulin production without ongoing treatment.\n\nWhile progress has been made, an FDA-approved therapy definitively meeting the criteria for a cure remains elusive as of March 2024. This question asks whether such a curative treatment will cross that milestone by the beginning of 2032.\n\nReferences:\n\n- Stat News: [Two type 1 diabetes patients now freed from insulin shots with cell therapy, Vertex reports](https://www.statnews.com/2023/06/23/vertex-diabetes-cell-therapy-insulin/)\n- Medscape: [Beta Cells From Stem Cells: Nearing a Cure for Type 1 Diabetes](https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/993713)\n- UBC: [Stem cell-based treatment controls blood sugar in people with Type 1 diabetes](https://news.ubc.ca/2023/11/27/stem-cell-based-treatment-for-type-1-diabetes/)\n- Diabetes UK: [Arthritis drug could offer immunotherapy hope type 1 diabetes](https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/arthritis-drug-could-offer-immunotherapy-hope-type-1-diabetes)\n- The Telegraph: [Cure for type 1 diabetes 'on horizon' after ground-breaking new treatment](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/type-1-diabetes-cure-ground-breaking-stem-cell-treatment/)\n- Medical News Today: [FDA approves first cellular therapy for type 1 diabetes: What does it do?](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/fda-approves-first-cellular-therapy-for-type-1-diabetes-what-does-it-do)\n- ClinicalTrials gov: [A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of VX-880 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes](https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04786262)\n- ClinicalTrials gov: [An Open-Label, FIH Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of VCTX211 Combination Product in Subjects With T1D](https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05565248)", "resc": "This question resolves as \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2032, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves a treatment that meets the following definition of a cure for Type 1 diabetes:\n\nA cure reverses type 1 diabetes by restoring natural insulin production and normalizing blood glucose levels long-term without further insulin administration in the majority of cases. Specifically, the treatment must demonstrate sustained insulin independence and normoglycemia for at least 1 year in 60% or more of clinical trial participants. Treatments that just help manage the disease's symptoms, require continuing insulin therapy, or require immunosuppressants would not qualify as a cure.\n\nIf no such FDA-approved curative treatment exists before January 1, 2032, the question resolves as \"No\".\n\nIn case of ambiguity, the determination of whether an approved treatment meets the criteria for a cure will be made by referencing the published clinical trial results, product labeling, and other documentation from the treatment's manufacturer and the FDA approval documents.", "prediction": "50%"}
+{"title": "Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?", "desc": "The [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. CPI data is released monthly by the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).\n\nIf the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\n\nBelow is a graph of the annual percentage change in core CPI in the US, seasonally adjusted, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initial estimate from each month.**\n", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if year over year core CPI inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) exceeds 3% from December 2023 to December 2024, according to seasonally adjusted data when first [published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).", "prediction": "61%"}
+{"title": "Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI's Superalignment team at the end of 2024?", "desc": "OpenAI established the [Superalignment team](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment) to focus on developing ways to steer, regulate, and govern superintelligent AI systems.\n\nIlya Sutskever, a co-founder and chief scientist at OpenAI, leads this team alongside Jan Leike. The Superalignment team, formed in mid-2023, is a strategic response to the rapid advancements in AI. \n\nOpenAI, recently faced a significant leadership shakeup. Sutskever, serving as the chief scientist and a board member, played a pivotal role in the temporary ousting of CEO Sam Altman. This event raised questions about Sutskever's future role at the company. Although he was instrumental in forming the superalignment team and his contributions remain significant, his current status within OpenAI has been somewhat ambiguous following these events. [Source 1](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/12/14/1085344/openai-super-alignment-rogue-agi-gpt-4), [Source 2](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ilya-sutskever-man-center-openai-211351628.html).\n\n[Reports indicate that Sutskever has been less visible within OpenAI.](https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/ilya-sutskevers-team-at-openai-built-tools-to-control-a-superhuman-ai/). There have been speculations about him potentially leaving the organization, especially considering the recent leadership turmoil and his hiring of a lawyer. However, his exact status and future role at OpenAI remain unconfirmed as of now.", "resc": "This question will resolve YES if at the start of January 1st, 2025, Ilya Sutskever is still serving as the leader of OpenAI's Superalignment team. Further, it resolves No if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report he no longer leads it, and that credible sources do not indicate he has returned to lead it, as of the beginning of January 1st, 2025. \n\nThe resolution requires that Ilya Sutskever holds the leadership role specifically for the Superalignment team and specifically for OpenAI. The question will resolve Yes if OpenAI renames the team, but announces the team will focus on the same core set of responsibilities. \n\nLeadership is defined as having a primary and active role in guiding the direction, decisions, and activities of the Superalignment team. It is sufficient for OpenAI to define Sutskever's role explicitly as \"leading,\" but it is not necessary.", "prediction": "50%"}
+{"title": "Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach \"Oumuamua\"?", "desc": "[Oumuamua is a first ever confirmed \"interstellar object\" to enter Solar system](https://www.ted.com/talks/karen_j_meech_the_story_of_oumuamua_the_first_visitor_from_another_star_system?language=en). It was detected by Hawaiian telescope PAN_STARRS2 on October 18, 2017 and was named \"Oumuamua\" which stands for \"advance scout\" in Hawaiian. \n\nHowever, the brightness of Oumuamua faded so quickly, that it became apparent that it moves really fast (26 km/s) and thus will relatively soon [leave the solar system never to return](https://medium.com/@astrowright/oumuamua-natural-or-artificial-f744b70f40d5). \n\n[Andrew Cote](https://twitter.com/Andercot) and [Tony Dunn](https://twitter.com/tony873004) have come up with a Project Lyra - [exploring the possibility](https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1734330667323052171?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email) of meeting this strange visitor from space. The idea is to chase Oumuamua using [a couple of hardcore gravity assists](https://twitter.com/tony873004/status/1732961608606056718), first sending a spacecraft to Jupiter, causing it to drop to the Sun for an Oberth maneuver.", "resc": "The question resolves Yes if before January 1, 2030, any national space agency (such as NASA) or private space company (such as Space X) announces plans to launch a spacecraft with the goal to reach Oumuamua before it leaves the solar system. The precise execution of this mission can be different from that proposed by [Project Lyra](https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1734330667323052171?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email), just the objective should be the same - meeting Ouma. The mission itself can be scheduled for later, the question resolves if there is an official announcement or any type of public statement.", "prediction": "5%"}
+{"title": "Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?", "desc": "Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the [highest valuation](https://coinmarketcap.com/), increased over 50% from mid-October 2023 until late December of 2023. While Bitcoin is still short of its November 2021 high of over $64,000, the recent rally has renewed interest in cryptocurrency and left [some analysts](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/10/24/a-wall-street-giant-has-declared-crypto-winter-over-as-bitcoin-smashes-30000-and-the-price-of-ethereum-and-xrp-suddenly-soar/?sh=3a357ea2917f) wondering if the \"crypto winter\" is over.\n\nFor [reference](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/guides/bitcoin-price-history), from the start of 2010 until the end of 2022, Bitcoin's price increased 10 of those years and decreased 3 of those years.", "resc": "This question will resolve **YES** if the last measured price of Bitcoin (in USD) on CoinMarketCap on December 31st, 2024 (UTC) is greater than the earliest measured price of Bitcoin on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) on January 1st, 2024 (UTC). Otherwise, the question will resolve **NO**.", "prediction": "80%"}
+{"title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?", "desc": "In 2014, liraglutide was [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later by [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes about [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61375-1) [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158) of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\n\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs, [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726) another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses of [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice. [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesity [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It's marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\n\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it's reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly. [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183) discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\n\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk of [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272) and [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109) cancer in lab rodents. Yet [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z) including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don't yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observational [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563) are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk.\n\nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutide [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118) [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141) by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dying [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(19)30249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing and [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide) before January 1, 2025. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects.", "prediction": "2.5%"}
+{"title": "In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?", "desc": "As of the end of 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court comprises nine justices with lifetime appointments. The Court's composition includes:\n\n1. Chief Justice John Roberts (appointed 2005)\n2. Justice Clarence Thomas (appointed 1991)\n3. Justice Samuel Alito (appointed 2006)\n4. Justice Sonia Sotomayor (appointed 2009)\n5. Justice Elena Kagan (appointed 2010)\n6. Justice Neil Gorsuch (appointed 2017)\n7. Justice Brett Kavanaugh (appointed 2018)\n8. Justice Amy Coney Barrett (appointed 2020)\n9. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson (appointed 2022)\n\nThe makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court plays a crucial role in shaping the country's legal landscape and has a significant impact on American society. The lifelong appointments of the justices mean that any changes in the Court's composition, due to retirement, death, or impeachment, can lead to substantial and enduring influences on both legal and societal matters in the United States.", "resc": "The question resolves as **Yes** if any of the nine current justices retires, dies, is impeached, or resigns. Additionally, a change in size of the Supreme Court would also qualify, such as adding or removing members. In situations like a justice announcing retirement but serving beyond 2024, the resolution is based on the status as of December 31, 2024. If the justice is still serving on this date, the question resolves as **No**.", "prediction": "13%"}
+{"title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?", "desc": "As of December 2023, the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict remains complex and dynamic, with no clear indications of an imminent bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement. The war, which began when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has continued with varying intensity.\n\nRecent developments include ongoing hostilities in various regions, including Kherson and the industrial city of Avdiivka, indicating that the conflict remains active with no significant moves towards a ceasefire or peace talks. The Ukrainian military has adopted a more defensive posture after failing to achieve a major breakthrough in their months-long counteroffensive, as [noted by the United Kingdom's Defence Ministry](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/analysts-ukraines-forces-pivoting-defense-after-russia-held-105807988).", "resc": "This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between December 23rd, 2023 to December 31, 2024. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2025.\n\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.", "prediction": "4%"}
+{"title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?", "desc": "*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*\n\n---\n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks.", "resc": "If Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration of calendar year 2024, this question will resolve as **YES** on January 1, 2025. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point during 2024, this question resolves **NO**.", "prediction": "43%"}
+{"title": "Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?", "desc": "The World Health Organization (WHO) [describes](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as follows:\n\n>A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response”. This definition implies a situation that is:\n>\n> * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected;\n> * carries implications for public health beyond the affected State's national border; and\n> * may require immediate international action.\n\nThe International Health Regulations (IHR) Emergency Committee (EC) meets to monitor health risks and provide advice to [WHO Director-General](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director-General_of_the_World_Health_Organization), who makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.\n\nThere [have been seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Declarations) PHEIC declarations since the IHR was established in 2005. The first was swine flu in 2009, and the most recent was Mpox in 2022.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in calendar year 2024.", "prediction": "19%"}
+{"title": "Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?", "desc": "Electric vehicles have seen significant sales growth in recent years, with plug-in vehicles (PEVs) making up less than 3% of light duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 2020, a figure that [has grown to above 9%](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates) through November 2023.\n\nPEVs consist of both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the total period made up of the months of January 2024 through November 2024, inclusive, the sales share of light duty plug-in vehicles (PEVs) is greater than 11% in the United States according to [data published by Argonne National Laboratory](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).", "prediction": "58%"}
+{"title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?", "desc": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q\\* (or Q-Star) **and** publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q\\*.", "prediction": "40%"}
+{"title": "Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?", "desc": "In February of 2022 Google DeepMind [unveiled AlphaCode](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/competitive-programming-with-alphacode/), an AI system that it claimed \"writes computer programs at a competitive level\". AlphaCode was assessed on challenges [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/), a platform for competitive coding with prizes for the best and most efficient solutions to the problems posed. [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/2/22914085/alphacode-ai-coding-program-automatic-deepmind-codeforce):\n\n>AlphaCode was tested on 10 of challenges that had been tackled by 5,000 users on the Codeforces site. On average, it ranked within the top 54.3 percent of responses, and DeepMind estimates that this gives the system a Codeforces Elo of 1238, which places it within the top 28 percent of users who have competed on the site in the last six months.\n\nIn December of 2023, DeepMind announced AlphaCode 2, powered by its [new Gemini model](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-ai/). In an [accompanying technical report](https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/AlphaCode2/AlphaCode2_Tech_Report.pdf), DeepMind described AlphaCode2 as a significant improvement over the first AlphaCode and said it performed better than 85% of competition participants on Codeforces.\n\n>When evaluated on the Codeforces platform – a mainstay of competitive programming – AlphaCode 2 solves 43% of problems within 10 attempts, close to twice as many problems as the original AlphaCode (25%). While its predecessor performed at the level of the median competitor, we estimate that AlphaCode 2 reaches the 85th percentile on average.\n\nSo far AlphaCode results appear to be based on a comparison of its performance to those of contestants without actually entering the contest. [Discussions of the results](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035) by Codeforces users correctly guessed that a user known as AdamentChicken2 was one of the accounts used to submit AlphaCode 2 solutions, which was [confirmed by the user](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035?#comment-1091379) and in an X (formerly Twitter) posts ([1](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732712334626361671), [2](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732677521290789235)) by DeepMind research scientist Rémi Leblond.", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that an AI has won a coding contest on [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/) in the highest division.", "prediction": "10%"}
+{"title": "Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?", "desc": "NASA's [Artemis program](https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/) is a series of missions to explore the moon. The first mission, [Artemis I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_1), was launched on November 16, 2022, and performed an uncrewed flyby of the moon.\n\nThe second mission, [Artemis II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_2#Mission), is planned to be the first crewed mission to fly by the moon since [humans last left low Earth orbit with the Apollo 17 mission in 1972](https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/why-50-years-since-humans-went-moon). Its launch is [scheduled to be no earlier than November of 2024](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/).\n\n![\"Artemis](\"https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/artemis-2-map-october-2021.jpeg\")
\n*[Image published by NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/artemis-ii-map/)*", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, the Artemis II moon mission comes within 20,000 nautical miles of the surface of the moon with a living crew.", "prediction": "1%"}
+{"title": "Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?", "desc": "**Previous Questions on Metaculus**\n\n- [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/)\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/)\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17742/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-october-2023/)\n\n---\n\nThe city of Bakhmut in Ukraine has been [heavily contested](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/20/the-battle-for-ukraine-bakhmut-a-timeline), and [according to PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/ukraine-ends-year-in-disappointing-stalemate-with-russia-and-anxious-about-aid-from-allies) the battle for Bakhmut has been \"the longest and bloodiest battle of the war\".\n\nThe [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) (ISW) has been tracking the war in Ukraine and charting the control of territory on its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). As of December 21, 2023, the ISW shows central Bakhmut as under \"assessed Russian control\".", "resc": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus at 2pm ET on December 31, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building — located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500 — is under any of the following categories:\n\n- Ukrainian Control\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n- Assessed Russian Advance\n- Claimed Russian Control\n- Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building", "prediction": "4%"}
+{"title": "Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?", "desc": "The SSE Composite Index is a stock market index of all stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. While the Chinese economy has grown significantly over the past two decades, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has had more humble returns. For reference, [China's GDP](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/gdp-gross-domestic-product) grew from 1.47 trillion USD in 2002 to 17.96 trillion USD in 2022, while the [SSE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS/) went from 1500 at the beginning of 2003 to 3255 at the beginning of 2023.\n\nFor further reference, [from 2003 until 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSE_Composite_Index), the SSE ended the year up for 11 of those years and down for 9 of those years.", "resc": "This question will resolve **YES** if on December 31st, 2024, the closing price of the SSE Index is higher than the closing price of the SSE Index was on December 29th, 2023. Otherwise, the question will resolve **NO**.\n\nThe closing price will be checked at: