Climate: Past, Present & Future

Climate: Past, Present & Future

Of butterflies and climate: how mathematics helps us to better understand the atmosphere

Applied mathematics is often seen as an obscure field, which the general public has no hope of ever understanding. In the context of climate science, this is far from the truth. In fact, many mathematical concepts and ideas applied to the study of the climate system stem from intuitive arguments. While their implementation can be very complex, understanding the basic ideas behind them does not require a PhD in Science.

The Lorenz 1963 attractor, often known as the “Lorenz Butterfly”. Author: Paul Bourke (

For example, this is the case of some recent developments in the field of dynamical systems analysis applied to atmospheric data. The atmosphere changes continuously and in many ways: for example, winds become stronger or die down, temperatures rise or fall and rain comes and goes. Understanding this evolution is important in many domains, from weather forecasting to air traffic management to catastrophe response services. The basic idea of the dynamical systems approach is to visualize the evolution of the atmosphere as a series of points connected with a line, which form a trajectory. The figure above shows a well-known example of such a trajectory: the so-called “Lorenz butterfly” (Lorenz, 1963). Now imagine focusing on a specific variable – for example daily surface temperature – and a specific region – let’s say Europe. We can build a trajectory, similar to the one shown above, describing the day-by-day properties of this two-dimensional (latitude by longitude, just as in a geographical map) temperature field. From day to day, the temperature varies therefore each day corresponds to a different point along the trajectory. In the case where two days are very similar to each other, they will correspond to two points very close together. On the contrary, if they show very different temperatures, the points will be further apart. If the similar days are well separated in time, for example occurring during different years, the trajectory representing surface temperature over our chosen region will therefore return close to a point it had previously visited, meaning that the closeness of the points and their distance in time do not always correlate. In the figure below, for example, the three turquoise dots are close to each other and also correspond to successive days along the atmospheric trajectory. The two red dots correspond to temperature configurations similar to those of the turquoise dots, but are separated from the latter by several days.

The continuous black line represents an idealized trajectory, while the circles correspond to successive days along the trajectory. The arrows indicate the direction the time goes.

This way of visualizing the atmosphere might seem bizarre, but it can give us some very powerful insights on how the climate system works. Consider, for example, summer heatwaves in Europe. The most severe ones can persist for several days and can have major impacts on human health, the environment and the economy. As can be intuitively understood, their persistence is due to the fact that the large-scale atmospheric conditions causing them are also persistent. If we return to our atmospheric trajectory, this will mean that we have a large number of points which are close to each other and successive in time – such as is the case for the three turquoise dots in the figure above. Namely, the trajectory moves very slowly and for several days the large-scale circulation only changes very slightly. In mathematical terms, this is a “sticky” state, and again the name is very intuitive! Analyzing the stickiness of the atmospheric states help us to predict how long a given circulation configuration is likely to last, thus providing useful information for weather forecasts.

The next natural step is to try to predict what the atmosphere will do once it has left a sticky state. Dynamical systems theory can again help us. It is in fact possible to define another quantity called “local dimension”, which tells us how complex the state of the atmosphere is. Once again the word “complex” here means exactly what you imagine: a complex temperature state will be one with lots of small, complicated spatial patterns. A simple state will be one with only a small number of large-scale features: for example, a day with high temperatures across the Mediterranean region and cold temperatures over most of Continental and Eastern Europe. Returning to our trajectory, these complex (or high-dimensional) and simple (or low-dimensional) states can be interpreted as follows. In the simple case, it is easy to predict the direction the trajectory will take in the future. This is the same as saying that all similar states evolve in a similar way. So if we want to forecast tomorrow’s temperature and we know that today is a “simple” state, we can look for states similar to today in the past years and we know the evolution of today’s state will be similar to that of these past states. In the complex case, on the contrary, it is very difficult to predict what the trajectory will do in the future. This means that similar atmospheric states will evolve in very different ways, and looking at past days with similar temperatures to today will not help us to forecast tomorrow’s temperature. A complex, high-dimensional state will therefore be more challenging for weather forecasters than a simple, low-dimensional one.

Now imagine looking at a very long climate dataset, for example covering the last century. If the climate system is always the same, one would expect the trajectories for the first and second half of the century to be indistinguishable. If, however, the climate is changing, then one would expect the trajectories representing it to also change. To make an analogy, imagine taking your heart rate. If you measure it on two different days while you are at rest, the number of heart beats per minute will probably be equal. In this case the system – which is here your body – is always in the same state. However, if one day you take your heart rate at rest and the following day you take it while you are running, the results will be very different. In this case something in the system has changed. In just the same way, if the climate system is changing, its “pulse” – namely the trajectory – will change with it. The trajectories of the two half-centuries in the dataset will therefore look different, and their local dimensions and stickiness will display different properties – for example a different mean value. The same two indicators that can help us improve weather predictions at daily to weekly timescales can therefore also help us to understand how climate varies across the centuries.

The dynamical systems approach can be applied to a wide range of scientific problems beyond the examples discussed above. These range from turbulence in fluids to the analysis of financial datasets. Picturing such a complex system as the atmosphere as a “spaghetti plot” is therefore an excellent example of an intuitive mathematical approach that can help us advance our knowledge of the world around us.

Edited by Célia J. Sapart.

Reference: Lorenz, E. N. (1963). Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20(2), 130-141.

Corals, the thermometers of the past!

Corals, the thermometers of the past!
Name of proxy

Type of record

Oceanic variability

Fringing reefs, barrier reefs, or atoll

Period of time investigated

Mainly the last 200 years

How it works

What we usually picture as a coral is actually a colony of tiny living animals called coral polyps, which are closely related to jellyfish or anemones. They live in symbiosis with photosynthetic algae called Zooxanthellae (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Schematic of a coral with its individual parts (modified from Veron, 1986).

Each polyp secretes a skeleton made of aragonite -a form of calcium carbonate- whose chemical composition depends on ambient oceanic and climatic conditions. Coral skeletons can therefore serve as monitors of the past oceanic and climatic variability through time (Figure 2).

Figure 2: X-radiographs and coral images (modified from DeLong et al., 2011).

Corals are distributed in the tropical belt mostly in the central and western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the Caribbean. These areas are also the most affected by climate variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. At interannual time scale, this phenomenon influences worldwide patterns of sea surface temperature (SST). Our present understanding of ENSO variability is limited by the short duration of instrumental records. In the current context of climate change, we need to understand the past variability of this phenomenon to be able to predict its future evolution. A proxy for past SST changes in the tropical oceans is therefore highly desirable to extend the length of the instrumental record.

Key Findings

Coral skeletal Sr/Ca have been shown to be an accurate tracer (“proxy”) of SST at many sites (Corrège, 2006). There is an inverse relationship between coral Sr/Ca values and SST conditions, with low Sr/Ca values corresponding to high SST environments and vice versa. Regression of coral Sr/Ca to instrumental SST (Figure 3) leads to a calibration equation that allows reconstruction of SST variability further back in time. SST records that span at least the last 200 years allow to differentiate the contributions of natural climate variability from those that are anthropogenically forced (Solomon et al., 2011). These results place coral as a perfect tool to reconstruct past oceanic variability which leads to a better understanding of past climate variability and a tremendously useful record to help predict future changes.

Figure 3: Time series of Sr/Ca from a living coral from New Caledonia and local SST (left). Calibration of Sr/Ca vs. SST. Sr/Ca appears to be a robust SST tracer (right).

Further readings

Corrège, T. (2006), Sea surface temperature and salinity reconstruction from coral geochemical tracers, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 232(2-4), 408-428, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.10.014.

DeLong, K. L., J. A. Flannery, C. R. Maupin, R. Z. Poore, and T. M. Quinn (2011), A coral Sr/Ca calibration and replication study of two massive corals from the Gulf of Mexico, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 307, 117–128, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.05.005.

Solomon A, et al. (2011), Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 92:141–156.

Veron, J.E.N. (1986), Corals of Australia and the Indo-Pacific. Angus and Robertson:London/Sidney.

Edited by Caroline Jacques and Célia Sapart

Defrosting the freezer. Climate change and glacial meltwater

Defrosting the freezer. Climate change and glacial meltwater

 Why are glaciers important?

Glaciers cover around 10% of the global land surface. This includes the large ice sheets (e.g. in Greenland and Antarctica) as well as smaller ice caps and valley glaciers (e.g. in Iceland, Norway and New Zealand). Figure 1 shows the current distribution of glaciers around the world.

Figure 1 – The global distribution of glaciers around the world from the GLIMS glacier database. Source:

Glaciers play an important role in moderating global and local climate, but they are very sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. Currently, around 90% of the world’s glaciers are retreating. Under current IPCC predictions of future global warming and climatic changes, many glaciers will have disappeared by 2100. Figure 2 shows the temperature for different parts of the globe in 20167 relative to average (‘normal’) values. Red and yellow colours mean that temperatures are hotter than usual, and it is clear that most of the world is warming. The Arctic is warming especially quickly, and is several degrees (°C) warmer than normal. Glaciers here will therefore be especially sensitive to climate change.

Figure 2 – Global average (mean) surface temperature January-June 2016 relative to long-term conditions. Red and yellow colours indicate higher temperatures than normal. Source:

Glaciers contain around 75% of the world’s freshwater. Many of the world’s rivers are fed by meltwater from glaciers and mountain snowpacks. These include major rivers such as the Ganges and Brahmaputra, where meltwater from Himalayan glaciers and snow makes its way downstream and, together with river water from other sources such as monsoon rains, eventually supplies over 1 billion people.

What are the key issues?

As climate change continues, and global air temperature rise leads to enhanced glacier melt, there are a number of key considerations:

How will glaciers respond to climate change? – Will they disappear?

How will glacier melt affect water flow downstream?

How quickly might these changes happen?

How will glacier melt affect river systems?

Here we consider some of the impacts of glacier retreat on river flow, but there are also many other impacts, including: changes to river water chemistry, and impacts on ecosystems – the plants and animals living in and around the rivers

  1. Turning on the tap

Increased glacier melt produces more meltwater, which means that rivers will have a higher flow and more water will be transported downstream. However, this situation is likely to last only temporarily, because…

2. Turning off the tap

Eventually (usually over several decades or longer), if a glacier melts fully, there will be no meltwater feeding into rivers downstream. Some rivers, that are fed by water from multiple sources (such as rainfall) do not rely on glacial meltwater and will not be greatly impacted by the disappearance of glaciers in their headwaters. Other rivers, especially those in mountain catchments, are supplied only by snow and ice melt. The disappearance of glaciers would therefore have major impacts on their water supply – the equivalent of turning off a tap. We know that many glaciers are melting rapidly, and some are predicted to have disappeared over the next few decades.

3. Changing lanes

In some places, as a glacier retreats, the meltwater streams may change course entirely and flow in a different direction. This has been seen recently in Alaska, where meltwater from the Kaskawulsh glacier has undergone a major transformation in its drainage pathway in the space of only four days. Meltwater previously flowed northwards, supplying the Slims River, but recent glacier retreat has caused a shift in the drainage pathway, and it is no longer favourable for the water to flow north, and the Slims has almost entirely disappeared. Instead, meltwater has been diverted towards the south to the Alsek river. This event has highlighted that major transformations in glaciers and river systems, in response to climate change, can happen in the blink of an eye. See a full news report on the changes here and the full research article here.

4. The four seasons

Climate change can also affect seasonality – the timing and duration of the seasons in a year. For example, with increased global warming, we might expect some parts of the planet to experience a longer warm season. Climate change might also affect the duration and intensity of precipitation (e.g. rain and snowfall) events and storminess. Changes in seasonality are already being felt in some parts of the world. In some parts of the Arctic, the Spring melt season, and therefore the onset of river flow, is starting earlier than it has done in the past. Such changes will influence when and in what quantities meltwater is transported downstream. Continued monitoring of climatic conditions, glacier and river behaviour will allow us to more fully understand the changes that are occurring in glacial environments in response to global temperature rise.

In summary

  • We know that global climate change is influencing glacier behaviour. Some glaciers are responding rapidly to climate change – over years and decades – and many will have melted completely by 2100.
  • As glaciers melt they produce more meltwater, which increases the flow of river systems downstream.
  • But if glaciers melt entirely, the meltwater ‘tap’ will be switched off. This may have major impacts on river systems that rely on meltwater inputs – such as in high mountain regions where meltwater is the dominant source of river water.
  • We have seen recently in Alaska, that glacier retreat can cause meltwater drainage to change direction in a matter of days.
  • Understanding glacier and river response to climate change is therefore key for our ability to prepare for future scenarios.

Helpful resources

The following links provide information, data, graphics, and videos about glaciers, glacier melt, meltwater, and climate change. There is something suitable for all age groups.

National Snow and Ice Data Centre

INTERACT Arctic Monitoring programmes

NASA Climate

Ostracods, the sentinels of past oceanic circulation

Ostracods, the sentinels of past oceanic circulation
Name of the proxy

Type of proxy

Paleoenvironment proxy

All types of aquatic environments but here we will focus on marine waters

Period of time investigated

How does it work?

Ostracoda are crustacean of millimetre size which have inhabited all types of marine environments from the Ordovician to today (e.g. Salas et al. 2007) and colonized continental water bodies during the Carboniferous (Bennett et al. 2012). They are characterised by their bivalve calcified carapace articulated dorsally which encloses and protects the soft parts and appendages of the animal (Figure 1). The majority of Ostracoda live on or in the sediments: they are consequently highly sensitive to their environment.

What are the key findings that have been done using this type of proxy?

Throughout their history, marine Ostracoda inhabiting deep seas had very different morphologies from the contemporary shallow water species: thin shells, long, hollow and delicate spines and no eye spots (although this point is discussed; Figure 2). Based on the study of sediments, associated organisms and analogies with modern-days Ostracoda, ostracodologists concluded that those animals developed in low energy environments ranging from 500 to 5000 m depth in connection with global ocean cold water supplied by ice-caps (Lethiers & Feist 1991). This discovery provided a unique window into the oceanic circulation through geological times and the existence of a cold deep-water layer. The presence and characteristics of these Ostracoda have been cornerstones in understanding that the thermohaline circulation has not been constant through the Phanerozoic but rather existed only during the Late Ordovician, the Carboniferous-Permian interval and from the Eocene to today (Benson 1975).

Figure 2. Simplified geological time scale with Eras and Periods of the Phanerozoic. On the right are reported some archetypal deep-sea Ostracoda from the literature (for all photos, scale bar is 100 µm). A: Processobairdia spinanterocerata Bless & Michel, 1987; B: Cristanaria katyae Crasquin-Soleau, 2008; C: Gencella taurensis Forel, work in progress; D: Pedicythere klothopetasi Yasuhara et al., 2009.

Today, this field of research is very active as Ostracoda are the only metazoans regularly fossilized in deep-sea sediments over an extremely long period of the history of Earth. Their long fossil record spanning 5 mass extinctions and periods of extreme climatic changes make them precious tools to unravel the response of deep-water ecosystems to past climatic changes and the rhythms of their recovery. The extreme sensitivity and history of these peculiar animals make them sentinels of deep-sea ecosystems facing ongoing global temperature increase and acidification of marine waters.

  • Bennett, C.E., Siveter, D.J., Davies, S.J., Williams, M., Wilkinson, I.P., Browne, M., Miller, C.G. 2012. Ostracods from freshwater and brackish environments of the Carboniferous of the Midland Valley of Scotland: the early colonisation of terrestrial water bodies. Geological Magazine, 149, 366-396.
  • Benson, R.H. 1975. The origin of the psychrosphere as recorded in change of deep sea Ostracode assemblages. Lethaia, 8, 69-83.
  • Bless, M.J.M., Michel, M.P. 1967. An ostracode fauna from the Upper Devonian of the Gildar-Monto region (NW Spain). Leidse Geologische Mededelingen, 39, 269-271.
  • Crasquin-Soleau, S., Carcione, L., Martini, R., 2008. Permian ostracods from the Lercara Formation (Middle Triassic to Carnian?, Sicily, Italy). Palaeontology, 51, 537-560.
  • Lethiers, F., Feist, R. 1991. Ostracodes, stratigraphie et bathymétrie du passage Dévonien–Carbonifère au Viséen Inférieur en Montagne Noire (France). Geobios, 24, 71-104.
  • Salas, M.J., Vannier, J., Williams, M. 2007. Early Ordovician Ostracods from Argentina: their bearing on the origin of Binodicope and Palaeocope clades. Journal of Paleontology, 81, 1384-1395.
  • Yasuhara, M., Okahashi, H., Cronin, T.M. 2009. Taxonomy of Quaternary Deep-Sea Ostracods from the Western North Atlantic Ocean. Palaeontology, 52, 879-931.

Written by Marie-Béatrice Forel

Edited by Célia Sapart and Caroline Jacques

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Megumi Kaminashi & Takeru Kaminashi

Megumi and Takeru are Nozomi's younger siblings. She cares deeply about them, and wanting to bring her family out of poverty.

Nobuo Kaminashi

Despite saying that he will do anything for her daughter, Nobou runs away when Nozomi asks for money.

Mitsuki Kaminashi

Mitsuki is Nozomi's late mother. At some point, Mitsuki was hospitalized. When Nozomi was still a child, Mitsuki eventually passed away, while Nozomi helplessly cried. Right before her death, Mitsuki told Nozomi, as the eldest daughter, to take care of her siblings.

Sayaka Miyata

Sayaka is Nozomi's first opponent after she decides to try Keijo, defeating her on their trial match. They later participate in both the first and second exam. Their bond grows on the second exam, when Sayaka is threatened by Sachiko Yamikumo, as Nozomi cheers her up. Following Nozomi's defeat at the hands of Hanabi Kawai, Sayaka also cheers her up, telling her to get stronger together. Both get the same room upon entering Setouchi Keijo Training School. Despite this, Sayaka is occasionally bothered with Nozomi's careless tendencies, such as stripping naked in front of her without explaining anything. Nozomi also tends to make fun of Sayaka's bust size.

Mei Matsumoto

Nozomi meets her on the first exam. While Nozomi takes the exam on her first try, Matsumoto has been participates three times, but is never unable to pass at all. Thus Nozomi nicknames her "Repeater". Nozomi thanks her for giving a helpful instance on the final test of the first exam.

Yuko Oshima

Nozomi first meets her on the first exam. However, they start to get along on the second exam.

Yume Miki

Miki is Nozomi's first opponent on the final exam. Nozomi states that Miki is stronger than her when they fights. However, Nozomi is able to defeat her.

Hanabi Kawai

Hanabi is Nozomi's last opponent on the final exam. Nozomi praises Hanabi upon knowing that Hanabi is capable of targeting any weak spots in the human body. In turn, Hanabi respects Nozomi greatly. Since Hanabi is too talented in sports, her friends are irritated, but Nozomi is the first to be able to rival her. Thus, thanks to Nozomi, Hanabi is finally able to enjoy sports for the first time.

Non Toyoguchi

Both are fellow Room 309's residences. Nozomi addresses Non by her first name. In turn, Non calls her "Nozomin". Both have clumsy tendencies.

Kazane Aoba

Both are fellow Room 309's residences. During the "Hip-Toss" training, Nozomi figures out that Kazane is able to predict the landing spot by using her right hand. Thus, she decides to get along with her. In turn, Kazane is initially irritated, as Nozomi keeps forcing her. However, after asking for advise to her sister, Kazane began to get along with Nozomi. After the end of the "Hip-Toss" training, Nozomi gives her some confidence.

Kotone Fujisaki

Kotone is Nozomi's opponent on the class exchange match. Nozomi is surprised upon knowing that Kotone's butt is almost moving automatically. However, Nozomi is not impressed as Kotone claims that she doesn't interest to fight in Keijo. As such, Kotone always turns her back to her opponents. However, Nozomi is the first to be able to make Kotone turns around to show her face. In turn, Kotone claims that Nozomi is the first opponent that she really wants to defeat. After being defeated by Nozomi, Kotone learns how to enjoy being compete with someone in Keijo matches. When Nozomi figures out that Kotone is a fujoshi, Nozomi claims that it is not weird to have an interest towards men.

Mio Kusakai

Mio knows Nozomi as Hanabi tells her about Nozomi. Mio first meets Nozomi on the day of the entrance ceremony, and immediately starts to flirt with her. Mio later routinely teases Nozomi.

Rin Rokudo

Nozomi first meets Rin right after her fight against Nagisa Ujibe. Rin states that Nozomi is stronger than anyone in the regular class, thus Nozomi needs to advance to the Elite Class. Upon entering the Elite Class, Nozomi and Rin are on good terms.

Atsuko Yoshida

Both are fellow Infighters and are on good terms.

Usagi Tsukishita

As Mio's admirer, Usagi feels jealous of how Nozomi gets closer to Mio. Despite this, when Nozomi states that she will invite Usagi to lunch with Mio, Usagi refuses, claiming that she just wants to admire her. While Nozomi considers that her personality is annoying. After being defeated by Nozomi, Usagi learns how to enjoy fighting in Keijo.

Saya Kogatana

Nozomi and Kogatana are in the same team on the final battle of the East-West War. Kogatana tries to help Nozomi, when she is cornered by Kaya Sakashiro, but Kogatana is defeated. After officially become Keijo players, the two are on good terms, as Nozomi helps her to invent a new technique.

Setouchi Keijo Training School

Nagisa Ujibe

Ujibe is one of the teaching staff at Setouchi. Nozomi already knows about Ujibe since the second exam. She tends to make fun of Ujibe for being fat, calling her "Walrus". Despite this, Nozomi still respects her greatly. Upon graduating, Nozomi is willing to bow down while stating that she will never forget what she has learned from Ujibe.

Hitomi Hokuto

Hokuto is one of the teaching staff at Setouchi. Nozomi claims that Hokuto only gives physical training to her and her friends, which causing them exhausted. Despite this, Nozomi still respects her as she defends Hokuto and Kobayakawa when Suruga's teacher mocks them.

Miku Kobayakawa

Kobayakawa is one of the teaching staff at Setouchi. Nozomi tends to ignore Kobayakawa during her lecture. In turn, Kobayakawa tends to shoot Nozomi by using a pen to rebuke her. Despite this, Nozomi still respects her as she defends Hokuto and Kobayakawa when Suruga's teacher mocks them.

Suruga Keijo Training School

Maya Sakashiro

Nozomi and Maya share the same nickname for being called as the "Ribbon Girl". Maya stops Nozomi when she tries to approach her mother, Ayako Sakashiro for mocking Setouchi's faculty. Thus, Nozomi and Maya start to share a rivalry. Nozomi fights Maya on the final battle of the eleventh East-West War, and ultimately manages to defeat her. Right after the end of the East-West War, Maya helps Nozomi in order to rehabilitate her breasts. Initially, Nozomi is confused on why Maya tries to help her. As such, she presumes that Maya feels responsible. Nozomi then asks Maya to have a rematch, which Maya agrees while telling that she will not lose again.

Hikari Muromachi

Hikari warns Nozomi right before the final match of the eleventh East-West War. Despite this, Hikari is later able to get along with her. Hikari is willing to congratulate her. Moreover, Hikari states that she is interested with Setouchi's training method.

Taichi Omotenishi

Taichi is Nozomi's neigbour. Before Nozomi attends Setouchi Keijo Training School, both attend the Shinkou High School. Initially, Taichi opposes Nozomi to compete in Keijo. However, after being defeated Taichi accepts Nozomi's decision.

Nozomi calls him "Koba-sen". He is Nozomi's teacher during her time in Shinkou. Kobayashi tells Nozomi each time she gets an offer to join athletic colleges. However, Nozomi always refuses since she decides to become a Keijo player. Kobayashi then warns her for competing in Keijo, bringing her to the Keijo Stadium. Despite this, Kobayashi tells her that Nozomi should decide her career on her own.

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ScaleSafe FAQ’s

Q.  What does the ScaleSafe system do?

A.  The ScaleSafe system prevents mineral scale buildup in equipment such as water heaters, boilers, heat exchangers, cooling towers, pressure washers, ice machines and domestic water systems. It also removes existing scale over a period of time, while inhibiting corrosion.

Q.  Why do I need to remove and prevent scale buildup?

A.  Scale buildup on heat transfer surfaces causes metal fatigue which can result in premature equipment failure. It also acts as an insulator thereby reducing heat transfer efficiency with a resulting increase in energy consumption. The high cost of fuel alone makes it increasingly important to maintain scale free equipment systems. A 1/4″ coating of scale on a heat transfer surface can require 55% more energy than normal to attain the same temperature.

Q.  How does the ScaleSafe system prevent scale buildup and remove existing scale?

A.  The ScaleSafe system prevents scale by acting as a scale inhibitor. It distorts the almost perfect cube like shape of the calcium molecule. This distortion prevents the formation of crystalline calcium carbonate by not allowing the calcium molecules to buildup on each other. To remove scale, ScaleSafe simply combines with the calcium in the precipitated calcium carbonate. This combining action does two things:
1.) ScaleSafe slowly breaks down the crystalline matrix of the calcium carbonate allowing it to be released into suspension. These minerals remain in suspension until they are removed by normal periodic maintenance procedures such as blowdown.
2.) ScaleSafe combines with calcium carbonate to form calcium phosphate which is deposited as a microfilm coating on all wetted surfaces.This coating acts as a deterrent to both scale and corrosion.

Q. How does ScaleSafe inhibit corrosion?

A.  As previously stated, eventually all surfaces that have been wetted with ScaleSafe will be coated with a protective microfilm of calcium phosphate. Calcium phosphate is well known as an excellent scale and corrosion inhibitor. This microfilm coating does not increase in thickness as it is continually washed off and replaced by the flow of treated water.

Q.  How long does it take to see results after installing the ScaleSafe system?

A.  As a preventative for scale buildup, the result can be seen immediately since there will be no increase in calcium carbonate precipitate buildup. The rate of scale removal depends on water velocity, scale density and water chemistry. Generally, the process of scale removal will be evident within 30 days.

Q.  Will ScaleSafe work on all types of water?

A.  In field applications as well as laboratory tests have proven that the ScaleSafe system is effective on virtually all types of water, however it is always best to allow us to review a recent analysis of your water should a question arise.

Q.  What size ScaleSafe system do I need?

A.  ScaleSafe comes in 3/4″, 1″, and 1 1/2″ inch line sizes. Each model has a corresponding minimum and maximum flow rate based on GPM (gallons per minute). Select a model that is compatible with the GPM flow rate for your system. Situations requiring higher than specified flow rates can be managed by installing multiple units with a parallel manifold.

Q.  How do I calculate the restriction rate for the ScaleSafe system?

A.  No pressure drop, other than standard pipe friction, occurs within the ScaleSafe system.

Q.  Is any additional equipment necessary besides the ScaleSafe dispenser?

A.  Pre-filtration is recommended on all units. The ScaleSafe system is designed to work by venturi, and the venturi orifices are very small. The chance of a piece of debris clogging one or both holes is a very real possibility. A standard spin down sediment filter with a drain valve for purging sediment is sufficient. Filters can either be provided with the system or purchased separately.

Q.  What is the delivery time on a ScaleSafe system?

A.  All standard products can be shipped from inventory, therefore most orders are shipped within 2 days. If for some reason an item is not in stock or is a special order, you will be advised of a ship date when your order is placed and confirmed.

Q.  Who installs the ScaleSafe system?

A.  The purchaser is responsible for installation.

Q.  How long does it take to install a ScaleSafe system?

A.  The average installation time is less than two hours.

Q.  Is the ScaleSafe system a filter?

A.  No, the ScaleSafe system is a non-mechanical method of dispensing water treatment chemicals directly into a water system.

Q.  Does all of the water have to flow through the ScaleSafe system?

A.  The ScaleSafe system is designed to dispense 4-6 ppm. In order to consistently receive this dosage all of the water in a system should pass through the unit. However, in some instances, 1-2 ppm is an adequate dosage rate. In this instance, a bypass manifold may be used as a convenient way to blend untreated water with treated water thus allowing a lower dosage rate than standard. (NOTE: Use of a lower than standard dosage rate depends on your specific application and water parameters. Your ScaleSafe representative can advise you and explain this in detail.

Q.  What happens to the pipes and equipment once the scale is removed?

A.  After scale removal, the piping system will remain clean, however, the entire system should be thoroughly inspected for leaks, In some instances, e.g. old piping, scale could have been the only thing that was preventing existing pipes, valves and tanks from leaking.

Q.  What is the pressure rating on the ScaleSafe system?

A.  Models SHF 415 & SHF 410 are rated at 100 psi.  All other commerical models are rated at 125 psi.  ScaleSafe Home is rated at 80 psi.

Q.  Is ScaleSafe safe to use in potable water?

A.  Yes, the ScaleSafe system meets all ANSI, NSF60 and USDA standards for potable water.

Q.  What maintenance is required with the ScaleSafe system?

A.  Venturi orifices should be inspected regularly to insure that they are clear. Pre-filters should be purged on a regular basis to remove any debris buildup. Empty sump must be replaced when product is depleted.

Q.  Does the ScaleSafe system have to be mounted in any certain direction?

A.  The ScaleSafe dispenser head must be mounted horizontally, with the sump directly below the dispenser head. The system will be stamped with either an arrow or be marked “inlet and outlet” indicating the direction of flow of the water through the system. Incorrect mounting may cause the unit to overfeed resulting in excessive product use.

Q.  What are the temperature limitations for the ScaleSafe system?

A.  All models except EHT units are rated up to 85 degrees farenheit. Keep in mind that to prevent scale formation the water must be treated prior to heating.

Q.  What happens to the minerals once they are placed in suspension in a closed loop system?

A.  If the system remains closed, the minerals will remain in suspension until a saturation point is reached. At that time the solution must be diluted in order to prevent precipitation of minerals. This can be accomplished either manually or automatically depending on the system.

Q.  What happens to suspended minerals in an open circulating system like a cooling tower?

A.  Mineral concentrations will build up over a period of time and must be diluted manually, automatically or on a continuous bleed-off once the total dissolved solids (TDS) reach a predetermined level. This is the same procedure that must be followed when using any water treatment and is commonly referred to as cycles of concentration.

Q.  Does the ScaleSafe system pollute the water?

A.  No. One of the major benefits of the Scale Safe system is that it uses no hazardous ingredients.

Q.  Does the ScaleSafe produce soft water?

A.  Technically it does not since the calcium and magnesium salts remain in the water. However, the results will be very similar to soft water because hard water problems are eliminated by the ScaleSafe system.

Q.  When ScaleSafe is removing scale from the plumbing, will scale come off in large enough pieces to cause problems?

A.  Generally no, the scale is dissolved as previously described and is placed into suspension so that it passes through the system unnoticed. However, in older systems and systems that have heavy existing scale buildup there is the possibility that some larger pieces of scale could be worked loose. All systems should be monitored on regular basis to prevent this type of occurrence.

Copyright © 2013 Webb Supply Company


How To Not Get Strong

If you’ve read Anti-fragile by Nassim Taleb, you will know that the last article or two I have written have actually been partly inspired by what I’ve learned in his book.  He talks about via negativa, which is a theological way of looking at what is good/desirable/positive by examining what something is not.  I’d like to discuss the steps one could take to the path of weakness (with reasons of course), so you can be sure to avoid these steps to get strong.

1. Don’t lift heavy weights.  Weak people stick with light weights.  Getting strong means getting jacked.  Being a jacked guy is out right now (see Bieber) and girls will turn into boydbuilders if they lift anything over 5 pounds (true story).

2. Never lift below 20 reps.  Lifting in low rep ranges does nothing but boost your ego.  You will probably injure yourself from lifting in lower rep ranges anyways, search pubmed for validation of this statement.  Also there is not way to get a decent pump if you lift in low rep ranges, so what’s the point?

3. Don’t progress.  NEVER increase the weight you lift, NEVER increase the sets you do.  Don’t even think about doing more work in less time.  If you try a rep PR you’d may as well jump off a bridge.

4. Don’t work hard.  If you’re in the gym, you should dress incredibly well, be well groomed and smell amazing.  You aren’t in there to sweat or any of that shit.  If you sweat at all you may as well go home because you might grow or gain strength, which we know is a huge no-no.

5. Perform only single joint exercises.  Listen, squats will mess up your knees, you may as well contact an orhopod if you are even thinking of squatting. Deadlifts will make your spine explode (I’ve seen it happen 12 times, literally).  If you ever want control a female on top of you don’t bench, you won’t be able to lift anything after your tricep is torn, your shoulders are frozen and your pec is completely torn off the bone.  If you ever want to be able to put the box of your favourite cereal up on your fridge or lift your hands above your head then don’t press anything overhead.  You will injure yourself doing these exercises.  My body aches from even writing this.

Ego Depletion, Willpower, and Food (addiction?)

Dat Willpower.

I’m currently reading a very interesting book that doesn’t really have much to do with fitness.  It’s called The Self Illusion by Bruce Hood.  I came over a very interesting sub chapter that talked specifically about ego depletion, I have heard of this term before somewhere, but never got a chance to really explore any of the research based around it.

You may have heard the current cliche ‘the brain is like a muscle.’  It technically isn’t (as it’s made as fat), but in terms of physiology, both muscles and the brain run from glucose.  So the brain, like muscles, only have a certain amount of output to give out before succumbing to fatigue.  This has been researched in the field of addiction.

Matt Field has researched the interplay of impulsivity and cognitive processes.  Bruce Hood explained an interesting study by Field at a presentation (from The Self Illusion).  Subjects were to watch a crazy Japanese horror movie called Audition.  Half the audience was to watch the movie without showing emotion, turning away, or showing any disgust to the gory parts of the movie.  The other half was instructed to act as they normally would when watching crazy shit!  After the movie the participants filled out a bogus questionnaire, then were allowed to drink as much beer as they pleased as a reward for partaking in watching a horror movie (sign me up).  The subjects who didn’t show emotion drank half as much as the audience who cringed and gasped at the brutality of the movie.  The studies’ conclusion was that individuals who showed emotion, sapped their willpower and massacred booze instead of drinking in moderation.

Field believes that self-control and willpower is an important foundation for the development of addiction.  If you are continuously ‘sapping stores’ from the self-control/willpower resources, negative consequences will show up in other areas, such as addiction to drugs, alcohol, food, etc.

So what does all this have to do with eating?  Well, there are many events happening to you on a daily basis.  Any kind of stressor, whether that be work-life; marital problems; attempting to conform; watching a scary movie etc, can and will sap your willpower.  This may result in you lacking the willpower to stay true to your current diet, or exercise regimen.

Habits and Environmental Factors

I’ve talked about habits in the past.  This ties directly into changing habits for a healthier lifestyle.  When most people attempt to diet, they decide to all-together stop eating something.  That right there is an exercise in self-control/willpower in regards to what you eat regularly.  Which is why I don’t think (there are a few exceptions) that you should fully cut out anything from your diet.  Allow yourself to consume what you want, albeit in smaller doses or less frequently.  This way you are killing two birds with one stone.  You’re eating more healthier foods, and not sapping all your willpower by doing it.  Which then allows you to stay on the boat rather than fall off to a cold, lonely death (which is where most diets end up).

My spectrum of eating properly has altered drastically from when I was younger.  For me, it feels odd not consuming a crap load of protein with every meal.  It seems odd that some people consume dessert every night.  Since I’m healthy, these are good viewpoints to have.  Although I never really stress about food, I’d say it’d be healthier to stress about not getting enough protein in then stressing about not have cookies and ice cream in your kitchen.

These are the things I try to teach clients and readers.  To attempt to create new eating heuristics that will last for hopefully a lifetime and not 1 week.  Ideally I’d love for these new habits to form as quickly as possible.  However, as Dr. Yoni Freedhoff pointed out in a recent article, there really is an incredibly large variance in the time it takes for people to form new habits.  Dr. Freedhoff showed research which displayed a period of 18 to 254 days for a habit to form “automatically.”

The important thing to remember, is try and stick with a new habit for an extended period of time.  A habit might also be an environment factor that will suck less willpower out of you.  This is conjecture, but I would venture to say that decreasing psychological stress could also help aid you in having willpower to eat better rather than wasting it on being upset  (or add negative emotion here: ____).  A stressed out individual might even benefit from seeing a physiologist or even a psychiatrist to help them with whatever issues they may have.

If you have ever reduced a stressor in your life and it’s helped you improve your image of yourself, whether it was through eating better or exercising more, I’d love to hear about it in the comments below.


Pregnant females, injuries, and shedding

First a quick general update: Spring courtship seems to be over; I have not seen a courting pair since 16 May. Since the end of May, the pregnant females have taken up refuge in ideal shelters where they can thermoregulate optimally. Females 39 and 41 are now in the same shelters where they gave birth last year (but not together) and Female 47 is with 39. Female 54 is by herself and has not moved since we implanted a transmitter and released her on 23 May. Neither 47 nor 54 were telemetered last year so I have no history for them. These soon-to-be mothers are all maintaining body temperatures within a couple of degrees of 30C (86F). The males and Female 53 (not pregnant?) have been hunting, mostly hanging around California ground squirrel burrows for the past month as the squirrels produce the first pups of the season (more on hunting ground squirrels) and the body temperatures of these foraging snakes has varied widely compared to the pregnant females (more on body temps).

In my last post, I showed you a photo of an unidentified rattlesnake in the refuge with Female 41 – the same refuge where Females 41 and 43 had babies last year. (You may remember that Female 43 was found dead at the refuge last October; click here for that account) While I could only see the new snake’s nose and a small area of flank at the first encounter, I saw her twice more over the next eight days. She was shades of dark brown, while Female 41 is quite pretty with chocolate brown dorsal blotches on a gray background. During the subsequent two sightings, I could also see the new animal’s rattle, which was long and unbroken (i.e., she still had her birth button). Then a week ago, I found Female 41 and the new rattlesnake basking next to each other and was able to capture the new animal (CROR55).

The first thing I noticed was that she was pre-shed. That is, her eyes and new rattle segment were milky white (more about shedding below). The next important discovery was that she is, indeed, a female – and quite heavy…maybe pregnant. A photo of her snout (bottom photo, below), when compared to the nose in the photos of the unidentified rattlesnake on 3 June (top photo, below) confirms that she is the same animal.

unidentified Crotalus oreganus under log at Refuge 03 on 03 June 2015, Effie Yeaw Nature Center Origonal RAW IMG_7382.CR2

I have numbered some landmark scales in these photos that you can compare but also compare the size and arrangement of surrounding unnumbered scales. And while the fine pigmentation of the individual scales is obscured in the pre-shed photo, I have circled some larger pigmented areas that are visible. Keep in mind that the photos were taken from slightly different angles, making some scales that are visible in one hard or impossible to see in the other. The size, number, and arrangement of nose and crown scales on these rattlesnakes are a bit like fingerprints on primates: they are individually unique, so far as we know. Also note the whitish eyes and how the scales on her nose appear a bit swollen in the pre-shed photo.

As I examined her further, I made another interesting discovery: she has sustained a serious injury to her abdomen sometime in the past. Although well healed now, her skin is scarred on the dorsal midline 575 mm (23 in) from her nose (her body length, excluding tail [snout-vent length or SVL] is 720 mm [28 in]). Furthermore, her body is noticeably narrowed at the scar (photo below) and her abdomen is hard and dense to the touch for several inches on both sides of the scar.

Female CROR 55 Original RAW IMG_7555.CR2

Nonetheless, she looks and acts healthy and might, indeed, be pregnant. I could feel two masses in her anterior abdomen that were consistent with fetuses but could not differentiate anything posteriorly where her abdomen is apparently scarred internally. She would normally be a great transmitter candidate but I elected to release her without one because of the suspected internal scarring where the transmitter would be implanted, plus I did not want to damage her skin as she prepares to shed.

This brings up the point that life is not easy for these snakes. In addition to this healed injury to Female 55 and the death of Female 43 last year, you may remember that I processed and released a small male (CROR44) early last December that had recently sustained some significant trauma from a predator, including a deep penetrating abdominal wound that I suspected would prove fatal over the winter (more details). While processing Male 52 early last month, I removed a “foxtail” (a seed from one of the non-native Bromus grasses that blanket the preserve) from his cloaca (cloaca defined). This little floral harpoon had not yet caused much damage but I don’t know what would have prevented it from burrowing into his abdomen and causing a potentially fatal injury. My point is that these rattlesnakes, despite their formidable reputation, are susceptible to constant hazards.

Shedding (the technical term is ecdysis) is the sloughing or molting of the outer epidermal layer (the stratum corneum) in scaled reptiles. This corneal layer is a matrix of keratin (the same material as your hair and fingernails – and the rattlesnake’s rattle!) infused with lipid (fat) molecules that greatly slows the passage of water through the skin. Because this matrix is acellular (contains no cells), it cannot grow. Thus, as the snake grows, this layer must be replaced periodically. When the time comes, the snake’s body produces a new corneal layer under the old one. This creates the blue or whitish tint, most notable in the eyes. In rattlesnakes, a new segment is produced at the base of the rattle during each shed, which is also whitish at this stage. Once the new corneal layer is ready, the snake’s body secretes fluid between the old and new layers, separating them and softening the old one. When this fluid is secreted, the whitish color disappears (the eyes clear) and the snake is ready to shed. They then rub their face on any available surface and start to peel back the old layer from around the nose and mouth (photo below). They continue rubbing, eventually crawling out of the old “skin,” leaving it inside-out, usually in one piece.

A 10-day-old Northern Pacific Rattlesnake beginning his post-partum shed while being processed during my El Dorado Hills field study.
A 10-day-old Northern Pacific Rattlesnake beginning her post-partum shed while being processed during my El Dorado Hills field study. (Also note the “birth button” at the end of her tail)

I’ll leave it there until next time, when I’ll explain rattle growth and trying to estimate age from the rattle.

The effect of drought on rattlesnakes

Field studies of rattlesnakes indicate that they cease most movement when water stressed and remain in their established home ranges, rather than migrating into developed areas in search of water, despite frequent claims to the contrary.

In my last post, I mentioned witnessing Females 41 and 47 feeding, as well as finding new Female 53, who was very heavy and likely pregnant. Since then, I have come across Female 41 eating another vole, found another new female (#54) that is heavy and definitely pregnant, and come across a fat but unidentified rattlesnake in the refuge where Females 41 and 43 had babies last year. I could only see the face and a bit of a flank of the unidentified animal (photo below) so I couldn’t even determine sex.

unidentified Crotalus oreganus under log at Refuge 03 on 03 June 2015, Effie Yeaw Nature Center Origonal RAW IMG_7387.CR2

It could be a male that has just eaten a ground squirrel pup – but it is more likely another pregnant female. We now have five telemetered females (39, 41, 47, 53 and 54) and all are in great shape, with three either confirmed or likely pregnant and the others in good shape to reproduce although I have not yet had my hands on them this year to palpate for fetuses.

This brings up a timely point: This will obviously be a good year for rattlesnake reproduction in our area, despite being in the midst of an historic drought. Since the news media often quotes “experts” claiming drought “drives rattlesnakes out of the hills and into yards looking for water,” this is a great opportunity to set the record straight about how drought affects rattlesnake movement.

We live in a Mediterranean climate, historically characterized by warm dry summers and cool wet winters. Even during years with “normal” precipitation, vast tracks of mountains, foothills and many valley areas have no surface water between late spring and the return of winter rains in November or December – yet they support healthy populations of rattlesnakes. Herbivores (insects, rodents, etc.) get most of their water from the plants they eat and rattlesnakes get water from eating the herbivores. The bodies of terrestrial vertebrates are usually composed of 65–75% water, so eating a 100 gram (3.5 ounce) rodent is like drinking about 70 grams (2.5 ounces) of water for a rattlesnake (plus the nutrients and energy gained). Make no mistake, rattlesnakes suck droplets from various surfaces, including their own skin, deposited by rain and dew (photo, below) and they will certainly drink from standing water when it’s available. But especially during summer and fall, these other sources are not available and virtually all of the water a rattlesnake needs is obtained from its prey.

adult Crotalus s. scutulatus (Mohave Rattlesnake) drinking rain water near Apple Valley, San Bernardino County, California, USA [wild animal, in situ]
Mohave Rattlesnake drinking rain water from its own body. [Cardwell, M. D. 2006. Rain-harvesting in a wild population of Crotalus s. scutulatus (Serpentes: Viperidae). Herpetological Review 37:142-144.]

Rattlesnakes are models of low energy physiology. As ambush predators, they move comparatively little and rely largely on anaerobic metabolism. Their sedentary lifestyle combined with the corneal layer of their skin (full of water-blocking lipids) dramatically lowers the amount of water that passes into and out of their bodies – known as “water flux.” Nonetheless, multiple studies have shown that the most significant mechanism for water loss in terrestrial snakes is evaporation, with about 75% being lost through the skin and the remainder via exhaled breath.

During my four-year field study (2001–2004) of Mohave Rattlesnakes in southern California, I was able to compare behavior, including average daily movement and reproductive effort, between the severe drought year 2002 and 2003–2004, when rainfall returned to average or above average. I found that average daily movement during 2002 was less than one third of 2003–2004 averages. And while I encountered dozens of courting pairs during the two non-drought years, I observed a male courting a female on only one occasion in 2002. Yet these rattlesnakes continued to eat at a rate indistinguishable from the non-drought years, based on scats deposited in holding containers and later analyzed. These snakes were reducing exposed surface area (and, therefore, evaporative water loss) by remaining coiled and immobile, covering much of their skin within their coils. They even buried their coils partially in loose soil at times, covering additional skin area. Remaining stationary eliminated their ability to find and court mates but, as sit-and-wait ambush predators, it allowed them to continue to hunt – and obtain the body water of their herbivorous prey. They also positioned themselves behind vegetation and ground contours in 2002 to avoid wind and sun, both of which increase evaporation rates. You can find more details in my MS thesis.

We have seen similar behavior in Northern Pacific Rattlesnakes in recent years at my El Dorado Hills study site, where the rattlesnakes remained tightly coiled and stationary in deep chaparral on north-facing slopes during particularly hot dry summer weather. At Effie Yeaw, all of the rattlesnakes caught by staff around the ponds during the past year, as well as the telemetered rattlesnakes I have found there, have been males found during the courtship season. The females have remained in the woods, away from water sources. While the snakes will drink when they find the ponds (or other water sources), that’s not why the males are there… they’re wandering around looking for females! And, yet, the females are now fat and pregnant.

Drought probably does not affect rattlesnake movement until it becomes locally severe, as it did at my Mohave Rattlesnake study site in 2002. When the snakes start to become water stressed, they don’t set out into uncharted territory looking for surface water. Rather, they stop moving and hunker down where they can best reduce evaporative water loss while still striking any prey that wanders by. Currently, if the preserve at Effie Yeaw Nature Center is any indication, there is lots of annual plant growth and the vole and ground squirrel populations are thriving – and so are the rattlesnakes.

So when people find a rattlesnake in their yard during a drought, the most likely explanation is that it is a male looking for receptive females and the drought is not severe enough locally to stress the rattlesnakes. When they are truly water stressed, rattlesnakes move less – not more – than usual. Unlike most large mammals that have much higher metabolic and water flux rates and require standing water to drink, there is no evidence that rattlesnakes leave their established home ranges looking for water, despite the popular belief to the contrary. They do just the opposite.


Breaking News

Shekarau states readiness to develop Kano

By Suzan Edeh

Bauchi â€” Governor Ibrahim Shekarau of Kano State has expressed his government’s determination to provide effective services towards sustainable development of the state.

Shekarau made the pledge in Bauchi during the opening ceremony of a two-day retreat organised for Directors and civil servants the state.

Shekarau maintained that the retreat was organised to provide civil servants the enabling environment that would inspire them to provide good services that would in turn maintain development of the state.

Shekarau, who was represented by his Deputy, Alhaji Abdullahi Tijjani Gwarzo, said his administration was not ignorant of the contribution of the state civil servants, stressing that there is need for continual development, hence the need for the retreat which is the third of its kind since assumption of his administration.