What is remote sensing satellites?

What is remote sensing satellites?

What is remote sensing satellites?

Remote sensing is the science of obtaining information about objects or areas from a distance, typically from aircraft or satellites. Remote sensors collect data by detecting the energy that is reflected from Earth. These sensors can be on satellites or mounted on aircraft.

What is the meaning of weather satellites?

A weather satellite is a type of satellite that is primarily used to monitor the weather and climate of the Earth. Satellites can be polar orbiting (covering the entire Earth asynchronously), or geostationary (hovering over the same spot on the equator). The Antarctic ozone hole is mapped from weather satellite data.

What is the difference between satellite and remote sensing?

In space, remote sensing is sometimes conducted from the space shuttle or, more commonly, from satellites. For example, the moon is a natural satellite, whereas man-made satellites include those platforms launched for remote sensing, communication, and telemetry (location and navigation) purposes.

How do weather satellites work?

What are the 4 types of satellites?

Types of Satellites and Applications

  • Communications Satellite.
  • Remote Sensing Satellite.
  • Navigation Satellite.
  • Geocentric Orbit type staellies – LEO, MEO, HEO.
  • Global Positioning System (GPS)
  • Geostationary Satellites (GEOs)
  • Drone Satellite.
  • Ground Satellite.

What is remote sensing and its types?

Remote sensing instruments are of two primary types: Active sensors, provide their own source of energy to illuminate the objects they observe. Passive sensors, on the other hand, detect natural energy (radiation) that is emitted or reflected by the object or scene being observed.

How many weather satellites are there?

NOAA owns nine satellites, which include: Four geostationary (GOES-14, -15, -16 and -17) Four polar-orbiting (NOAA-15, -18, -19 and -20)

What are the main applications of remote sensing?

The primary application of remote sensing?

  • Analyzing the condition of rural roads.
  • Creating a base map for visual reference.
  • Computing snow pack.
  • Collecting earth’s pictures from space.
  • Controlling forest fires.
  • Detecting land use and land cover.
  • Estimating forest supplies.
  • Locating construction and building alteration.

What are the two main types of weather satellites?

There are two types of weather satellites: polar orbiting and geostationary. Both satellite systems have unique characteristics and produce very different products. The two polar orbiting satellites, in their north-south orbits, observe the same spot on the Earth twice daily, once during the daylight and once at night.

How many satellites are in the sky?

Causes for the growth in the number of satellites

Number of satellites Main purpose
350 satellites Technology development and demonstration
150 satellites Navigation and positioning
104 satellites Space science and observation
20 satellites Earth science

Which country has the largest number of satellites?

the United States
Of the 3,372 active artificial satellites orbiting the Earth as of January 1, 2021, 1,897 belong to the United States. This is by far the largest number of any single country, with their nearest competitor, China, accounting for only 412.

What is remote sensing and its uses?

Remote sensing is the process of acquiring information, detecting, analyzing, monitoring the physical characteristics of an area by recording it is reflected and emitted radiation energy without having any physical contact with the object under study. …

How is remote sensing used in the Weather Service?

In the National Weather Service remote sensing equipment is used in the detection and measurement of weather phenomena with devices sensitive to electromagnetic energy such as… Remote sensing via satellites provides a unique perspective from which to observe large regions.

What are the different types of remote sensing data?

In addition to common radar and satellite images, many more types of remote sensing data exist, which measure a vast array of atmospheric properties. Although many of these data lie beyond the scope of this course, they all have something in common: All remote sensing data is based on measurements of electromagnetic radiation.

What kind of satellites are used for Earth observation?

Earth observation satellites are the satellites equipped with remote sensing technology. Various sensors are equipped on these satellites in accordance with their respective missions.

How are remote sensing instruments used to measure the atmosphere?

Although many of these data lie beyond the scope of this course, they all have something in common: All remote sensing data is based on measurements of electromagnetic radiation. Meteorologists use a vast array of remote sensing instruments to measure the atmosphere.


What’s the scoop on plant protein powders? Here are 5 facts you need to know

You may have started off the year with some healthy resolutions – a promise to eat better, sleep earlier, and work out harder. Whether you are new to the gym scene or have been a fitness freak for years, the question of using protein powders and health supplements always comes up. Some swear by it, others caution you to stay away from it. More recently, the conversations have evolved to pit animal protein powders against plant-based protein powders, and these are touted for their various health benefits.

If you are looking at adding protein powders to your fitness plan, here are a few things you should keep in mind.

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Why are proteins so essential in your diet, especially if you are physically active?

The human body can’t store a lot of protein in the body, so we do need to make sure that we take in enough protein through our diet. For some people, the amount of protein in our regular food may be enough. But, for those who play sports, or work out at the gym regularly, using protein supplements can have certain benefits.

Studies have shown that increasing protein intake does lead to stronger muscles, higher endurance, and a better response to resistance training. Further research shows that they can help with weight loss, lean body mass, increased body speed and improved bone density. However, the benefits of these supplements also vary depending on how much of the supplements you consume, as well as how long or intense your workouts are.

How are protein powders made and what is the difference between plant and animal-based powders?

In order to make these health supplements, protein is extracted from its source, by removing naturally occurring carbohydrates, fats, minerals, and fibre. Animal-based powders are extracted from meat, fish, eggs, and cow’s milk, while plant-based proteins are derived from grains, beans, and seeds. Vegan options may include pea, hemp, brown rice, or soy. Research shows that proteins derived from different sources have different compositions of amino acids, which are the building blocks of our body. They are essential for the growth and repair of human cells and tissues.

Also Read: Can you mix protein powder in hot milk? Let’s figure it out!

a close up of a piece of cake on a plate: protein powder

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protein powder

Why are plant-based protein powders and supplements so popular nowadays?

There are concerns that animal-based proteins may contain high levels of saturated fats, making them unhealthy when taken over a long time. There is also increased awareness about the environmental effects of consuming animal products, as veganism becomes more popular. When it comes to protein, people generally believe that “more is better”, which is why they gravitate towards options like plant-based proteins that look safer and more sustainable in the long run. This may explain why recent data shows that 50 percent of consumers have increased their intake of plant-based proteins.

Also Read: I used good-old sattu powder as a protein shake and it really does work

Are plant-based proteins and supplements good for overall health?

One area, in particular, has been put under the spotlight – heart health and its co-relation with plant-based supplements. Studies show that people who consumed more plant-based proteins had reduced markers of heart disease along with decreased cholesterol levels. Similar research also shows that plant proteins can reduce the incidence of obesity, diabetes and inflammation in the body.

Are there any side-effects of consuming plant-based protein powders and supplements?

Proteins are broken down in the body to be used for their nutritional benefits. There are waste products left behind, which are then removed through the kidney in our urine. That is why we need to make sure that we don’t overload the kidney by taking in too much protein. There are studies that show that soy protein may interfere with medication given for thyroid disorders, and some people may be allergic to proteins derived from certain plants, nuts, or seeds.

The last word

Even though taking plant-based proteins has many benefits, especially when combined with a healthy lifestyle, balance is key. It is always advisable to consult an expert before changing your diet and habits drastically. That’s because it could have long-term health effects, which is quite a compromise for short-term gains!

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What do the dice in Star Wars mean?

What do the dice represent in Star Wars?

Luke handing them to Leia is a touching gesture from brother to sister, a symbol of the fallen man they both loved. The dice also serve as a vexing reminder to Ben (a.k.a. Kylo) of the father he cut down. He handles them briefly before they evaporate as part of Luke’s Force projection illusion.

Why did Luke give Leia dice?

The disappearance of Han’s dice also serves as a reminder to Leia and Kylo that Han is still with them. Even though Luke, Leia, and Han do not make an appearance all together in the sequel trilogy, the dice represent their spiritual connection.

What are the dice that Luke gives to Leia?

The Force Awakens Visual Dictionary explains the dice were “used in the ‘Corellian Spike’ game of sabacc in which he won the Millennium Falcon from Lando Calrissian.” They were important to the ship and to Han, so Luke bringing them to Leia as part of his Force projection on Crait is special.

Is Han Solo a Jedi?

Han Solo is a fictional character in the Star Wars franchise created by George Lucas. The character first appeared in the 1977 film Star Wars portrayed by Harrison Ford, who reprised his role in The Empire Strikes Back (1980) and Return of the Jedi (1983).

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Han Solo
Nationality Corellian
Homeworld Corellia

Did Han Solo have dice in the original trilogy?

As a token of his good fortune, Han hung the dice in the very ship they’d won. This fits in with the original trilogy as well – when Han and company visit Cloud City in Empire Strikes Back, Han tells Lando they stopped in for repairs on Han’s ship.

How did Luke Touch Leia in The Last Jedi?

Luke touches Leia’s hand very solidly, then hands her the gold dice, which she can also hold. Luke is untouched by the armored transports’ cannons, and by Kylo’s lightsaber.

What necklace did Luke give Leia?

The Medal of Bravery was first seen being presented to Luke Skywalker and Han Solo by Leia Organa in the 1977 film Star Wars: Episode IV A New Hope. The medal was to appear again in the 2015 film Star Wars: Episode VII The Force Awakens, but the footage was dropped from the finished film.


Nadine Pereteaho Tawha

Published on 13/03/2018

A Waikato woman has been banned from owning animals for three years after her dog was found extremely thin, with pressure sores and unable to stand without pain.

Tihei was found extremely thin, with pressure sores and unable to stand without pain.

Nadine Pereteaho Tawha was convicted in the Hamilton District Court of failing to ensure the physical, health and behavioural needs of her dog were met.

As well as the ban Tawha was sentenced to 100 hours’ community work and ordered to pay reparations of $767.90.

The case began on Waitangi Day last year when an SPCA Inspector responded to reports of an extremely thin dog at a property in Hamilton.

The SPCA said upon arrival, the defendant denied owning a dog and refused to let them through a padlocked gate into the backyard.

After police managed to get the defendant to open the gate, they found a female rottweiler cross huntaway dog named Tihei.

Tihei was chained to a kennel in a backyard surrounded by debris and faeces. She had no access to water and was excruciatingly thin. Her skeletal frame highlighted her protruding ribs and there were several open wounds on her rump area.

When the SPCA Inspector said she would be taking possession of Tihei, the defendant exclaimed “just take the [expletive] dog, I don’t want it anyway”. She declined to be formally interviewed about the case.

The vet concluded that Tihei was emaciated, most likely due to starvation or malnutrition over a period of weeks to months.

Due to her temperament, it was recommended that Tihei be euthanised on humane grounds.

“Unfortunately, there are cases where unsocialised, chained and neglected animals develop aggressive behaviours. The SPCA team does the best they can to rehabilitate every animal. Sadly, sometimes this is not possible,” said Andrea Midgen, SPCA CEO.

“The suffering Tihei would have gone through is unacceptable. Owning an animal is a privilege, and this should never be forgotten.”


Understand Biography Prior To You Regret.

Biography is a comprehensive account of a person’s life. It includes greater than facts as well as standard info; it additionally consists of just how an individual experienced occasions in their life. Biographies frequently have important understandings right into the lives of famous people. Some instances of famous people consist of Albert Einstein, Mom Teresa, and Winston Churchill. There are numerous sorts of bios, and you can find several examples below. To find out more, read this short article.

Creating a bio calls for that you select a subject with interest. This will certainly create an intimate experience for your visitors. While investigating for your subject, consider whether you want that subject. A biographer should keep the viewers’s rate of interest in mind throughout the writing process. Bio writing takes continual interest, so make certain that your chosen subject is interesting to the viewers. Here are some pointers for writing a bio:

A biography is contacted share an individual’s life with a bigger target market. The author might find the topic’s life intriguing or discover motifs that relate to life today. Others might compose a biography just to provide the general public with the realities. Biographies can influence and motivate the reader by highlighting the success and also challenges a specific number encountered in life. In addition, they can serve as sign of things to come, highlighting the relevance of learning from past errors.

In addition to composing a biography, an author can create a cumulative bio about a group. For example, Captain Charles Johnson’s A General History of the Pirates (1724) cataloged the lives of a few of the most infamous pirates and also established the images of pirates in pop culture. The very same can be claimed for smaller sized teams, such as the individual scene of New York City. An autobiography can be written in the vernacular to accentuate those that went unknown for a long period of time.

Biographies are normally non-fiction stories created by the writer themselves. Memoirs consist of a protagonist, a central problem, and also an ensemble of fascinating personalities. These works are written in chronological order, however their chronology is not strictly chronological. Rather, they may begin at the present time and also function their method backwards. For a more extensive autobiography, consider employing a ghostwriter. It is a fantastic method to obtain a look of the writer’s life.

A biography is a detailed account of a person’s life by someone else. It includes not just basic truths, however the experiences of the individual involved. Biography writers focus on the extra considerable parts of the life of a person. A biographer’s objective is to offer the individual’s life in the very best feasible light. The viewers can get understanding right into his or her experiences by reviewing a biography. Biographies are an excellent source of details for schoolchildren and also adults alike.

A bio is a comprehensive account of somebody’s life composed by one more person. Biographies can be discussed a person who lived centuries earlier, a contemporary celebrity, an unsung hero, or even a team of people. While most bios are nonfiction, they can likewise be fiction. Therefore, biographies are terrific for exercising analysis and creating skills. The genre of bio is vast. It includes works in all kinds of media.

A biography is an in-depth account of a person’s life. Biographies cover greater than simply fundamental realities, however additionally the experiences of that person throughout different life occasions. These can range from the birth of a private to their fatality. Below are some instances of renowned biographies:

Literary bios often present problems in navigating the connection in between biographical topic and also writer. There’s a fine line between offering a biographical topic as separate from the author, while preserving the fluidity and also subtleties of their connection. Woolf’s bio manages this delicate equilibrium by focusing on the author’s point of view against multiple resources. Biographers have to prevent personal predisposition in writing. But it’s not impossible.

Contemporary biographies are commonly fictions based on genuine people. Such biographies usually end up being the basis for movies as well as television collection. While biographical fictions are generally loosely based on well-known facts, they aim for enjoyment worth and also little issue for factual integrity. If a bio involves murder, the writer ought to probably make certain that the reader understands what he or she is speaking about. However, this doesn’t mean a bio ought to be taken literally.

An excellent biographer can offer an in-depth story while still being fact-based. These bios can likewise show the similarities in between individuals and also show how these characteristics can progress humankind. While reviewing a biography, it’s important to consider whether it’s a true tale or an imaginary scholastic account. When you have actually established what type of bio you read, you can begin to concentrate on what sort of info the subject has actually given.

In scholastic bios, historians normally depend on documented truths and noting their accomplishments. This method can cover the crucial lessons an individual learned throughout their life. It’s frequently simpler to provide these lessons in a much more contemporary light by concentrating on bigger details. In a similar way, a historical biographer might include accounts from other experts. A biographer’s objective is to portray the subject in an extra modern-day light. Biography should relate to culture.

The earliest examples of bios are from ancient times to the Renaissance. Because old times, authors have been taping the lives of terrific leaders. Bios right now had a tendency to be historic records yet at some point turned into cultural legendaries. Famous examples include Plato’s Apology and also the Gospels of Jesus Christ. James Boswell reshaped the image of a bio with his Life of Samuel Johnson. Additionally, there are several instances of bios in the modern-day globe. Visit website

A bio written by an author who has lived throughout a period of time without recognition may come to be a bestseller. Some popular biographies may also come to be plays or films. In a similar way, the bestselling Unbroken bio by Laura Hillenbrand is an excellent selection for nonfiction visitors. The historical bio category of fiction might prove to be a superb read for those interested in history. If you’re trying to find a great book about the life of a vital figure, you need to try checking out a biography.

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Use Any Language Model from Hugging Face Model Hub

How to leverage Haystack native integration with Hugging Face's model hub.

Haystack open source framework for composable natural language processing (NLP) provides the building blocks for customized semantic search and question answering (QA) pipelines. With Haystack, you can set up a production-ready NLP system in no time. A key tool for working in Haystack is the Hugging Face Model Hub — a platform for sharing NLP models.

What is the Hugging Face model hub?

Hugging Face's model hub serves as an interface to pre-trained machine learning (ML) models. Model training requires significant resources to which not everyone has access, and retraining a model can be an unnecessary waste of computational power. The model hub takes advantage of the fact that you can save a trained model’s parameters for future use. The HF platform allows machine learning practitioners to share their own pre-trained model checkpoints that anybody can use, whether for inference or as a basis for further fine-tuning.

How does it work?

Hugging Face hosts models in the form of git-based repositories. This means the model hub comes with version control, and you can use common git commands to push, update, or clone the model repositories. To learn more, have a look at the Hugging Face Hub documentation.

Is it only for Transformer models?

The model hub is not restricted to Transformer models. In fact, any model that is available as a TensorFlow or PyTorch checkpoint can be uploaded to the HF model hub. In practice, due to the impressive Transformer-powered results in ML and in NLP in particular,  most of the models shared on the hub are Transformer-based.

Is it only for NLP models?

The model hub is not just for NLP models, though various NLP applications—like question answering, text classification, and sentiment analysis are clearly the focus. However, you can also find models pertaining to computer vision and audio tasks.

How to use Hugging Face models in Haystack pipelines

Haystack NLP pipelines are directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). Pipeline graphs consist of a succession of nodes connected by edges, where every node performs exactly one task. For instance, in a basic extractive QA pipeline, the Retriever node handles document retrieval, while the Reader node applies a Transformer-based question answering model to the documents.

Pipelines are flexible: you can add or remove nodes according to your use case. Haystack offers ready-made nodes for summarization, classification, text generation, and many other tasks, but you can also design your own custom nodes. For instance, you could set up a decision node with more than one outgoing edge. What makes nodes so useful is that they handle the model loading for you. All you need to do is to pass the model’s repository name when instantiating a node.

Advantages of combining Haystack and models on Hugging Face model hub

In addition to the advantages outlined above, there are a few more reasons for using Haystack as your interface to HF pre-trained models:

  1. Composability. Haystack allows you to implement pipelines of varying degrees of complexity, from “vanilla” semantic QA systems to pipelines with parallel branches and decision nodes. You can add and combine nodes flexibly with just a few lines of code.
  2. Debugging. The more complex a pipeline system gets, the harder it becomes to debug. However, Haystack strives to make debugging your pipelines as easy as possible.
  3. Serialization. Haystack’s use of the YAML format makes it easy to define and save a pipeline configuration. Use YAML to share the architecture of your QA system with others, or to deploy it to production.

Start using Haystack now!


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Houses Along A Street Were All Built At The Same Time. All The Houses Have The Same Layout But Some Are Larger Than Others. One Of The Houses Has A Sidewalk That Measures 60 Feet. A Neighbor’s House Is Scaled Down By A Ratio Of 2:3. How Long Is The Neighbor’s Sidewalk? - Math Discussion

Houses along a street were all built at the same time. All the houses have the same layout but some are larger than others. One of the houses has a sidewalk that measures 60 feet. A neighbor’s house is scaled down by a ratio of 2:3. How long is the neighbor’s sidewalk?

2017-02-10 16:19:14

1 Answers

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Time Series Analysis

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Longitudinal data are used commonly in sociology, and over the years sociologists have imported a wide variety of statistical procedures from other disciplines to analyze such data. Examples include survival analysis (Cox and Oakes 1984), dynamic modeling (Harvey 1990), and techniques for pooled cross-sectional and time series data (Hsiao 1986). Typically, these procedures are used to represent the causal mechanisms by which one or more outcomes are produced; a stochastic model is provided that is presumed to extract the essential means by which changes in some variables bring about changes in others (Berk 1988).

The techniques called time series analysis have somewhat different intellectual roots. Rather than try to represent explicit causal mechanisms, the goal in classical time series analysis is "simply" to describe some longitudinal stochastic processes in summary form. That description may be used to inform existing theory or inductively extract new theoretical notions, but classical time series analysis does not begin with a fully articulated causal model.

However, more recent developments in time series analysis and in the analysis of longitudinal data more generally have produced a growing convergence in which the descriptive power of time series analysis has been incorporated into causal modeling and the capacity to represent certain kinds of causal mechanisms has been introduced into time series analysis (see, for example, Harvey 1990). It may be fair to say that differences between time series analysis and the causal modeling of longitudinal data are now matters of degree.

Classical time series analysis was developed to describe variability over time for a single unit of observation (Box and Jenkins 1976, chaps. 3 and 4). The single unit could be a person, a household, a city, a business, a market, or another entity. A popular example in sociology is the crime rate over time in a particular jurisdiction (e.g., Loftin and McDowall 1982; Chamlin 1988; Kessler and Duncan 1996). Other examples include longitudinal data on public opinion, unemployment rates, and infant mortality.

Formal Foundations. The mathematical foundations of classical time series analysis are found in difference equations. An equation "relating the values of a function y and one or more of its differences Δy, Δ2y . . . for each x-value of some set of numbers S (for which each of these functions is defined) is called a difference equation over the set S" (Δy=yt−yt−1, Δ2=Δ(yt−yt−1) = yt−2yt−1−yt−2, and so on) (Goldberg 1958, p. 50). The x-values specify the numbers for which the relationship holds (i.e., the domain). That is, the relationships may be true for only some values of x. In practice, the x-values are taken to be a set of successive integers that in effect indicate when a measure is taken. Then, requiring that all difference operations Δ be taken with an interval equal to 1 (Goldberg 1958, p. 52), one gets the following kinds of results (with t replacing x): Δ2yt+kyt=2k+ 7, which can be rewritten yt−2yt−1+(1−k)yt−2= 2k+7.

Difference equations are deterministic. In practice, the social world is taken to be stochastic. Therefore, to use difference equations in time series analysis, a disturbance term is added, much as is done in conventional regression models.

ARIMA Models. Getting from stochastic difference equations to time series analysis requires that an observed time series be conceptualized as a product of an underlying substantive process. In particular, an observed time series is conceptualized as a "realization" of an underlying process that is assumed to be reasonably well described by an unknown stochastic difference equation (Chatfield 1996, pp. 27–28). In other words, the realization is treated as if it were a simple random sample from the distribution of all possible realizations the underlying process might produce. This is a weighty substantive assumption that cannot be made casually or as a matter of convenience. For example, if the time series is the number of lynchings by year in a southern state between 1880 and 1930, how much sense does it make to talk about observed data as a representative realization of an underlying historical process that could have produced a very large number of such realizations? Many time series are alternatively conceptualized as a population; what one sees is all there is (e.g., Freedman and Lane 1983). Then the relevance of time series analysis becomes unclear, although many of the descriptive tools can be salvaged.

If one can live with the underlying world assumed, the statistical tools time series analysis provides can be used to make inferences about which stochastic difference equation is most consistent with the data and what the values of the coefficients are likely to be. This is, of course, not much different from what is done in conventional regression analysis.

For the tools to work properly, however, one must at least assume "weak stationarity." Drawing from Gottman's didactic discussion (1981, pp. 60– 66), imagine that a very large number of realizations were actually observed and then displayed in a large two-way table with one time period in each column and one realization in each row. Weak stationarity requires that if one computed the mean for each time period (i.e., for each column), those means would be effectively the same (and identical asymptotically). Similarly, if one computed the variance for each time period (i.e., by column), those variances would be effectively the same (and identical asymptotically). That is, the process is characterized in part by a finite mean and variance that do not change over time.

Weak stationarity also requires that the covariance of the process between periods be independent of time as well. That is, for any given lag in time (e.g., one period, two periods, or three periods), if one computed all possible covariances between columns in the table, those covariances would be effectively the same (and identical asymptotically). For example, at a lag of 2, one would compute covariances between column 1 and column 3, column 2 and column 4, column 3 and column 5, and so on. Those covariances would all be effectively the same. In summary, weak stationarity requires that the variance-covariance matrix across realizations be invariant with respect to the displacement of time. Strong stationarity implies that the joint distribution (more generally) is invariant with respect to the displacement of time. When each time period's observations are normally distributed, weak and strong stationarity are the same. In either case, history is effectively assumed to repeat itself.

Many statistical models that are consistent with weak stationarity have been used to analyze time series data. Probably the most widely applied (and the model on which this article will focus) is associated with the work of Box and Jenkins (1976). Their most basic ARIMA (autoregressive-integrated moving-average) model has three parts: (1) an autoregressive component, (2) a moving average component, and (3) a differencing component.

Consider first the autoregressive component and yt as the variable of interest. An autoregressive component of order p can be written as yt− Φ1yt−1−∙∙∙−Φpyt−p.

Alternatively, the autoregressive component of order p (AR[p]) can be written in the form Φ (B) yy, where B is the backward shift operator—that is, (B)yt=yt−1, (B2)yt=yt−2 and so on—and ϕ(B)= 1−ϕ1B−∙∙∙−ϕ pbp . For example, an autoregressive model of order 2 is yt−ϕ1yt−1−ϕ2yt−2.

A moving-average component of order q, in contrast, can be written as εt−θ1εt−1−∙∙ ∙−θqεt−q. The variable εt is taken to be "white noise," sometimes called the "innovations process," which is much like the disturbance term in regression models. It is assumed that εt is not correlated with itself and has a mean (expected value) of zero and a constant variance. It sometimes is assumed to be Gaussian as well.

The moving-average component of order q (MA[q]) also can be written in the form Θ(B)εt, where B is a backward shift operator and Θ(B) = 1 −Θ1B−∙∙∙−ΘqBq. For example, a moving-average model of order 2 is εt−Θ1εt−1−Θ2εt−2.

Finally, the differencing component can be written as Δdytwhere the d is the number differences taken (or the degree of differencing). Differencing (see "Formal Foundations," above) is a method to remove nonstationarity in a time series mean so that weak stationarity is achieved. It is common to see ARIMA models written in general form as Θ(B)Δdyt=Θ(B)εt.

A seasonal set of components also can be included. The set is structured in exactly the same way but uses a seasonal time reference. That is, instead of time intervals of one time period, seasonal models use time intervals such as quarters. The seasonal component usually is included multiplicatively (Box and Jenkins 1976, chap. 9; Granger and Newbold 1986, pp. 101–114; Chatfield 1996 pp. 60–61), but a discussion here is precluded by space limitations.

For many sets of longitudinal data, nonstationarity is not merely a nuisance to be removed but a finding to be highlighted. The fact that time series analysis requires stationarity does not mean that nonstationary processes are sociologically uninteresting, and it will be shown shortly that time series procedures can be combined with techniques such multiple regression when nonstationarity is an important part of the story.

ARIMA Models in Practice. In practice, one rarely knows which ARIMA model is appropriate for the data. That is, one does not know what orders the autoregressive and moving-average components should be or what degree of differencing is required to achieve stationarity. The values of the coefficients for these models typically are unknown as well. At least three diagnostic procedures are commonly used: time series plots, the autocorrelation function, and the partial autocorrelation function.

A time series plot is simply a graph of the variable to be analyzed arrayed over time. It is always important to study time series plots carefully to get an initial sense of the data: time trends, cyclical patterns, dramatic irregularities, and outliers.

The autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function of the time series are used to help specify which ARIMA model should be applied to the data (Chatfield 1996, chap. 4). The rules of thumb typically employed will be summarized after a brief illustration.

Figure 1 shows a time series plot of the simulated unemployment rate for a small city. The vertical axis is the unemployment rate, and the horizontal axis is time in quarters. There appear to be rather dramatic cycles in the data, but on closer inspection, they do not fit neatly into any simple story. For example, the cycles are not two or four periods in length (which would correspond to six-month or twelve-month cycles).

Figure 2 shows a plot of the autocorrelation function (ACF) of the simulated data with horizontal bands for the 95 percent confidence interval. Basically, the autocorrelation function produces a series of serial Pearson correlations for the given time series at different lags: 0, 1, 2, 3, and so on (Box and Jenkins 1976, pp. 23–36). If the series is stationary with respect to the mean, the autocorrelations should decline rapidly. If they do not, one may difference the series one or more times until the autocorrelations do decline rapidly.

For some kinds of mean nonstationarity, differencing will not solve the problem (e.g., if the nonstationarity has an exponential form). It is also important to note that mean nonstationarity may be seen in the data as differences in level for different parts of the time series, differences in slope for different parts of the data, or even some other pattern.

In Figure 2, the autocorrelation for lag 0 is 1.0, as it should be (correlating something with itself). Thus, there are three spikes outside of the 95 percent confidence interval at lags 1, 2, and 3. Clearly, the correlations decline gradually but rather rapidly so that one may reasonably conclude that the series is already mean stationary. The gradual decline also usually is taken as a sign autoregressive processes are operating, perhaps in combination with moving-average processes and perhaps not. There also seems to be a cyclical pattern, that is consistent with the patterns in Figure 1 and usually is taken as a sign that the autoregressive process has an order of more than 1.

Figure 3 shows the partial autocorrelation function. The partial autocorrelation is similar to the usual partial correlation, except that what is being held constant is values of the times series at lags shorter than the lag of interest. For example, the partial autocorrelation at a lag of 4 holds constant the time series values at lags of 1, 2, and 3.

From Figure 3, it is clear that there are large spikes at lags of 1 and 2. This usually is taken to mean that the p for the autoregressive component is equal to 2. That is, an AR[2] component is necessary. In addition, the abrupt decline (rather than a rapid but gradual decline) after a lag of 2 (in this case) usually is interpreted as a sign that there is no moving-average component.

The parameters for an AR[2] model were estimated using maximum likelihood procedures. The first AR parameter estimate was 0.33, and the second was estimate -0.35. Both had t-values well in excess of conventional levels. These results are consistent with the cyclical patterns seen in Figure 1; a positive value for the first AR parameter and a negative value for the second produced the apparent cyclical patterns.

How well does the model fit? Figures 4 and 5 show, respectively, the autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function for the residuals of the original time series (much like residuals in conventional regression analysis). There are no spikes outside the 95 percent confidence interval, indicating that the residuals are probably white noise. That is, the temporal dependence in the data has been removed. One therefore can conclude that the data are consistent with an underlying autoregressive process of order 2, with coefficients of 0.33 and -0.35. The relevance of this information will be addressed shortly.

To summarize, the diagnostics have suggested that this ARIMA model need not include any differences or a moving-average component but should include an autoregressive component of order 2. More generally, the following diagnostic rules of thumb usually are employed, often in the order shown.

  1. If the autocorrelation function does not decline rather rapidly, difference the series one or more times (perhaps up to three) until it does
  2. If either before or after differencing the autocorrelation function declines very abruptly, a moving-average component probably is needed. The lag of the last large spike outside the confidence interval provides a good guess for the value of q. If the autocorrelation function declines rapidly but gradually, an autoregressive component probably is needed.
  3. If the partial autocorrelation function declines very abruptly, an autoregressive component probably is needed. The lag of the last large spike outside the confidence interval provides a good guess for the value of p. If the partial autocorrelation function declines rapidly but gradually, a moving-average component probably is needed.
  4. Estimate the model's coefficients and compute the residuals of the model. Use the rules above to examine the residuals. If there are no systematic patterns in the residuals, conclude that the model is consistent with the data. If there are systematic patterns in the residuals, respecify the model and try again. Repeat until the residuals are consistent with a white noise process (i.e., no temporal dependence).

Several additional diagnostic procedures are available, but because of space limitations, they cannot be discussed here. For an elementary discussion, see Gottman (1981), and for a more advanced discussion, see Granger and Newbold (1986).

It should be clear that the diagnostic process is heavily dependent on a number of judgment calls about which researchers could well disagree. Fortunately, such disagreements rarely matter. First, the disagreements may revolve around differences between models without any substantive import. There may be, for instance, no substantive consequences from reporting an MA[2] compared with an MA[3]. Second, ARIMA models often are used primarily to remove "nuisance" patterns in time series data (discussed below), in which case the particular model used is unimportant; it is the result that matters. Finally and more technically, if certain assumptions are met, it is often possible to represent a low-order moving-average model as a high-order autoregressive model and a low-order autoregressive model as a high-order moving-average model. Then model specification depends solely on the criteria of parsimony. That is, models with a smaller number of parameters are preferred to models with a larger number of parameters. However, this is an aesthetic yardstick that may have nothing to with the substantive story of interest.

It should be clear that ARIMA models are not especially rich from a substantive point of view. They are essentially univariate descriptive devices that do not lend themselves readily to sociological problems. However, ARIMA models rarely are used merely as descriptive devices (see, however, Gottman 1981). In other social science disciplines, especially economics, ARIMA models often are used for forecasting (Granger and Newbold 1986). Klepinger and Weiss (1985) provide a rare sociological example.

More relevant for sociology is the fact that ARIMA models sometimes are used to remove "nuisance" temporal dependence that may be obstructing the proper study of "important" temporal dependence. In the simplest case, ARIMA models can be appended to regression models to adjust for serially correlated residuals ( Judge et al. 1985, chap. 8). In other words, the regression model captures the nonstationary substantive story of interest, and the time series model is used to "mop up." Probably more interesting is the extension of ARIMA models to include one or more binary explanatory variables or one or more additional time series. Nonstationarity is now built into the time series model rather than differenced away.

Intervention Analysis. When the goal is to explore how a time series changes after the occurrence of a discrete event, the research design is called an interrupted time series (Cook and Campbell 1979). The relevant statistical procedures are called "intervention analysis" (Box and Tiao 1975). Basically, one adds a discrete "transfer function" to the ARIMA model to capture how the discrete event (or events) affects the time series. Transfer functions take the general form shown in equation (1):

If both sides of equation (1) are divided by the left-hand side polynomial, the ratio of the two polynomials in B on the right-hand side is called a transfer function. In the form shown in equation (1), r is the order of the polynomial for the "dependent variable" (yt), s is the order of the polynomial for the discrete "independent variable" (xt), and b is the lag between when the independent "switches" from 0 to 1 and when its impact is observed. For example, if r equals 1, s equals 0, and b equals 0, the transfer function becomes ω0/1-δ1. Transfer functions can represent a large number of effects, depending on the orders of the two polynomials and on whether the discrete event is coded as an impulse or a step. (In the impulse form, the independent variable is coded over time as 0,0, . . . 0,1,0,0, . . . ,0. In the step form, the independent variable is coded over time as 0,0, . . . 1,1 . . . 1. The zeros represent the absence of the intervention, while the ones represent the presence of the intervention. That is, there is a switch from 0 to 1 when the intervention is turned on and a switch from 1 to 0 when the intervention is turned off.) A selection of effects represented by transfer functions is shown in Figure 6.

In practice, one may proceed by using the time series data before the intervention to determine the model specification for the ARIMA component, much as was discussed above. The specification for the transfer function in the discrete case is more ad hoc. Theory certainly helps, but one approach is to regress the time series on the binary intervention variable at a moderate number of lags (e.g., simultaneously for lags of 0 periods to 10 periods). The regression coefficients associated with each of the lagged values of the intervention will roughly trace out the shape of the time path of the response. From this, a very small number of plausible transfer functions can be selected for testing.

In a sociological example, Loftin et al. (1983) estimated the impact of Michigan's Felony Firearm Statute on violent crime. The law imposed a two-year mandatory add-on sentence for defendants convicted of possession of a firearm during the commission of a felony. Several different crime time series (e.g., the number of homicides per month) were explored under the hypothesis that the crime rates for offenses involving guns would drop after the law was implemented. ARIMA models were employed, coupled with a variety of transfer functions. Overall, the intervention apparently had no impact.

Multiple Time Series. ARIMA models also may be extended to more than one time series (Chatfield 1996, Chap. 10) Just as the goal for the univariate case was to find a model that transformed the single time series into white noise, the goal for the multivariate case is to find a model that will transform a vector of time series into a white noise vector. In effect, each series is regressed simultaneously not only on lagged functions of itself and the disturbance term but on functions of all other time series and their disturbance terms. In practice, this sometimes reduces to building transfer function models that include a single response time series and several input time series, much as in multiple regression. For example, Berk et al. (1980) explored how water consumption varied over time with the marginal price of water, weather, and a number of water conservation programs.

The mathematical generalization from the univariate case is rather straightforward. The generalization of model specification techniques and estimation procedures is not. Moreover, multivariate time series models have not made significant inroads into sociological work and therefore are beyond the scope of this chapter. Interested readers should consult Chatfield (1996) for an introduction or Granger and Newbold's (1986) for a more advanced treatment.

Time series analysis is an active enterprise in economics, statistics, and operations research. Examples of technical developments and applications can be found routinely in a large number of journals (e.g., Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Forecasting). However, time series analysis has not been especially visible in sociology. Part of the explanation is the relative scarcity of true time series for sociological variables collected over a sufficiently long period. Another part is that time series analysis is unabashedly inductive, often making little use of substantive theory; time series analysis may look to some a lot like "mindless empiricism." However, in many sociological fields, true time series data are becoming increasingly available. Under the banner of "data analysis" and "exploratory research," induction is becoming more legitimate. Time series analysis may well have a future in sociology.

(see also: Longitudinal Research; Statistical Methods)

Berk R. A. 1988 "Causal Inference for Sociological Data." In N. Smelser, ed., The Handbook of Sociology. Newbury Park, Calif.: Sage.

——, T. F. Cooley, C. J. LaCivita, S. Parker, K. Sredl, and M. Brewer 1980 "Reducing Consumption in Periods of Acute Scarcity: The Case of Water." Social Science Research 9:99–120.

Box, G. E. P., and G. M. Jenkins 1976 Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San Francisco: Holden-Day.

——, and G. C. Tiao 1975 "Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and Environmental Problems." Journal of the American Statistical Association 70:70–79.

Chamlin, Mitchel B. 1988 "Crime and Arrests: An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Approach." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 4(3):247–258.

Chatfield, C. 1996 The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, 5th ed. New York: Chapman and Hall.

Cook, T. D., and D. T. Campbell 1979 Quasiexperimentation. Chicago: Rand McNally.

Cox, D. R., and D. Oakes 1984 Analysis of Survival Data: London: Chapman and Hall.

Freedman, D. A., and David Lane 1983 "Significance Testing in a Nonstochastic Setting." In P. J. Bickel, K. A. Doksum, and J. L. Hodges, Jr., eds., A Festschrift for Erich L. Lehman. Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth International Group.

Goldberg, Samuel 1958 Introduction to Difference Equations. New York: Wiley.

Gottman, J. M. 1981 Time-Series Analysis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Granger, C. W. J., and P. Newbold 1986 Forecasting Economic Time Series. Orlando, Fla.: Academic Press.

Harvey, A. C. 1990 The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd ed. London: Harvester Wheatshear.

Hsiao, Cheng 1986 Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Judge, D. G., W. E. Griffiths, R. C. Hill, H. Lutkepohl, and T.-C. Lee 1985 The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: Wiley.

Kessler, D. A., and S. Duncan 1966 "The Impact of Community Policing in Four Houston Neighborhoods." Evaluation Review 6(20):627–669.

Klepinger, J. D. H., and J. G. Weis 1985 "Projecting Crime Rates: An Age, Period, and Cohort Model Using ARIMA Techniques." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 1:387–416.

Loftin, C., M. Heumann, and D. McDowall 1983 "Mandatory Sentencing and Firearms Violence: Evaluating an Alternative to Gun Control." Law and Society Review 17(2):287–318.

——, and D. McDowall 1982 "The Police, Crime, and Economic Theory." American Sociological Review 47:393–401.

Richard A. Berk


• Dinusha Cragg

Overcoming Depression & Anxiety

There is no single cause of depression or anxiety. In fact, the cause of these symptoms tends to be multifactorial and overcoming it requires a well-rounded, holistic approach. Before you read on, I'd like to invite you to take a moment and ask yourself the following questions, "What could my body be trying to tell me right now?" "What signals might I have missed?" "What do I need more of in my life?"

Now that you have a clear understanding of what depression and anxiety is, here are some strategies to help you overcome it. If you have not yet read our previous blog, you will find it here.

What can I do to manage depression and anxiety

Rule out other causes. Anxiety and depression can often be symptoms of an underlying cause. Therefore, it is important to ensure you are working with knowledgeable health professionals (e.g., an integrative medical doctor) to rule out any potential nutrient deficiencies, food sensitivities, methylation issues, hormonal imbalances and/or physical health conditions etc.

Practice self-compassion. When we suffer from anxiety and/or depression we sometimes blame ourselves for thinking or behaving in a certain way. This is not helpful and is likely to fuel your worry or low mood. Try to speak to yourself in the way that you would speak to a dear friend, family member or loved pet. What would you say to a close friend experiencing the same pain and suffering as you?

Gently exploring your environment can also be helpful. Could it be that you are feeling burnout, overworked, or stuck in a job you hate? Could it be that you are in a toxic relationship, not getting enough sleep, or going through some personal stress?

Be present. When you notice your mind generating anxious or depressed thoughts or images, gently bring it back to where your body is. That is, bring it back to the present moment and engage fully in what you are doing. Our mind can be very good at digging up old and hurtful memories or events or thinking about things in the future. Using your breath as an anchor can be helpful.

Name it. Naming our feelings for what they are can reduce the intensity and impact they have on us. Practice saying, “this is anxiety”; “this is worry”, “this is sadness” or “this is my limbic system”.

Make room for it. Struggling with, trying to control, or avoiding our emotions only makes them stronger. Try localising them and creating some space for them. Ask yourself what would this feeling look like if it were an object? What colour is it? Is it sharp or does it have smooth edges? Does it move? How big is it? Where do you feel it? Is it deep inside you or towards the surface of your body? Once you have answered these questions, practice breathing in and around it.

Learn your triggers. Notice the things that make your anxiety and/or depression better or worse.

Breathe deeply. Deep breathing can have an immediate calming effect on our nervous system. When you feel anxious or under stress, you are more likely to breathe quickly and in a shallow manner. Practice taking slow deep breaths. Deep breathing also has a positive effect on our lymphatic system and can help to reduce inflammation, which has links to depression and anxiety.

Sleep. Not getting enough sleep can have a dramatic effect on our anxiety, depression, and ability to cope under stress. Furthermore, sleep allows our brain to clear out toxins and it also serves a restorative function. Ensure you are sleeping 7 – 9 hours every night.

Get moving. Exercise has shown to be an effective way to reduce inflammation, anxiety and depressive symptoms, as well as stress. Get moving every day, even if it is just for 5 minutes! Any movement is better than none.

Limit your alcohol and caffeine intake. These substances can stimulate or depress our nervous system and can trigger and/or perpetuate anxiety and depressive symptoms.

Connect. Talking to a close friend, family member, or trusted health care professional can be a helpful way to cope with mental health issues. This takes a lot of courage, but it is important to remember that there is always someone out there who can support you.

If you'd like support to manage depression, anxiety or any other mental health concern please feel free to call us on 0450 942 915 or contact us in writing.

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10 Most Common Causes of Knee Pain

Posted on: April 2nd, 2020 by Our Team

The knee is one of the most complex joints in the body. It is made of 3 bones covered with cartilage, multiple ligaments, muscles and tendons. Any of these structures can wear out or be injured and cause knee pain. Knee pain can be caused by normal wear and tear, repetitive use, aging, and injury. Knee pain can be aggravated by activity, obesity, malalignment, or muscle conditions, and can be triggered by hip or foot problems.

There are two major types of knee pain: acute pain caused by injury or trauma, and chronic caused by osteoarthritis or repetitive use. The location of the pain can be an indication of the location of injury or damage.

Acute knee pain

Acute knee pain is commonly the result of an injury such as a broken bone, torn ligament or meniscus tear.

  • Sprained ligaments. Ligaments are elastic bands of tissue that connect bones to each other and provide stability and strength. There are four major ligaments in the knee. A sprain is an overstretched or torn ligament. Cruciate ligaments are usually injured during sports, auto accidents, and falls. Collateral ligaments are commonly injured by a blow to the outside of the knee in contact sports, and also involve a sudden change in direction. Symptoms include pain, swelling, bruising, instability and loss of motion.
    • Anterior Cruciate Ligament Tear. An ACL tear is a common sports injury caused by a sudden twisting of the knee, often seen in skiing or soccer, that cause acute knee pain and buckling. About 50% of ACL injuries involve damage to the meniscus, cartilage, or other ligaments.
  • Torn Meniscus. The meniscus is a tough pad of cartilage that sits between the shinbone and the thighbone and acts as a shock absorber. There are two in each knee. It is a traumatic injury caused by a sudden twist of the knee with a planted foot in sports like tennis or Meniscus tears can also be caused by a sudden pivot, which can be seen frequently in basketball or football tackles. However, people with knee OA are at risk for a torn meniscus. Symptoms include pain, swelling, difficulty moving the knee, catching and locking of the knee, and buckling.
  • Fractures. Usually as a result of an auto accident or a fall.

Chronic knee pain

Chronic knee pain is associated with osteoarthritis, tendinitis, and bursitis, patellar syndromes, and IT band syndrome.

  • There are 3 types of arthritis that cause knee pain. Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease of aging. Inflammatory arthritis includes Rheumatoid arthritis and post-traumatic arthritis. OA is the most common type, and makes daily life difficult, especially when kneeling, walking, and climbing stairs.  OA is a chronic, progressive, degenerative disease that wears away the cartilage at the ends of the bones, causing the bones to rub together. OA of the knee can affect the shin bone, the thigh bone and the knee cap.  Knee OA is the most common reason for a knee replacement.
  • Tendonitis is inflammation of the tendons, and is one of the most common causes of knee pain. Pain and tenderness are felt at the base of the knee cap.
  • Bursitis is inflammation of the bursa, a fluid filled sac that reduces friction and cushions the pressure points between the bones, tendons and muscles. It is usually caused by a soft tissue trauma or muscle strain.
  • Patellar chondromalacia (Patellar Syndrome) is a common cause of chronic knee pain. It is caused by a degeneration of knee cartilage due to poor alignment of the kneecap, repetitive stress, and trauma. It is often called runner’s knee because it develops in people who play sports that require running and jumping. Teenagers and young, healthy women are at risk. It can also affect older adults with OA, overweight people, people who have had a knee injury, and those who have had a kneecap fracture or dislocation. It causes pain in the front of the knee, near the kneecap.
  • Iliotibial (IT) Band syndrome. The IT band is connective tissue that runs on the outside of the thigh from the pelvis to the tibia, crossing over the hip and knee joints. The IT band is a knee and hip stabilizer. IT Band syndrome is an overuse injury that causes pain on the outside of the knee, especially when running or biking. It is the most common cause of knee pain in runners and cyclists.

When you suffer with knee pain whether due to a sports or traumatic injury, arthritis or aging, contact Dr. Jorge Chahla, an internationally renowned orthopedic surgeon in Chicago, Illinois. Dr. Chahla is an expert who specializes in joint preservation and cartilage restoration techniques.

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5 Steps to Make Affirmations Work for You!

 Learn how to make affirmations work for you.Ronald Arthur Alexander

An affirmation can work as it has the ability to program your mind into believing the stated concept. This is because the mind doesn’t know the difference between what is real or fantasy. When you watch a movie and you start to laugh or cry your mind is empathizing with the characters on the screen even though it is only Hollywood magic. There are both positive and negative types of affirmations. I’m sure many of us can remember as a child being told by a teacher, parent or coach that we didn’t have the ability to do something, or we were fat, clumsy, etc. These unwholesome statements can stay with us in the conscious or unconscious mind, which we then reinforce throughout our lives.
For example, the fear of failure, according to Heinz Kohut, the grandfather of psychology of the self, is often intimately connected to a childhood fear of being abandoned either physically or emotionally. When we fear failure, we tend to overestimate the risk we’re taking and imagine the worst possible scenario-the emotional equivalent of our primary caretakers deserting us. What we picture is so dreadful that we convince ourselves that we shouldn’t even try to change. We avoid opportunities for success, and then, when we fail, the unwholesome affirmation we unwittingly re-confirm is “Success just isn’t written in my stars” or “It’s just not in my karma!”
If an unwholesome belief is deeply rooted in our unconscious mind then it has the ability to override a positive affirmation even if we aren’t aware of it. This is why for many people affirmations don’t seem to work as their afflicted thought patterns are so strong that it knocks out the effect of the positive statement. So how can we add more muscle to an affirmation so it has the power to triumph over our negative thinking? Here are some suggestions on how to make them work for you.
5 Steps to Make Affirmations More Effective & Powerful
Step 1: Make a list of what you’ve always thought of as your negative qualities. Include any criticisms others have made of you that you’ve been holding onto; whether it’s something your siblings, parents and peers used to say about you when you were a child, or what your boss told you in your last annual review. Don’t judge if they’re accurate and remember we all have flaws. This is one of the beauties of being human. Simply make a note of them and look for a common theme, such as “I’m unworthy.” This will be a great place to start making a shift in your life. When you write out the recurring belief notice if you holding on to it anywhere in your body? For example, do you feel tightness or dread in your heart or stomach? In my book, Wise Mind, Open Mind I discuss in detail on how to let go of negative self-judgments but for now ask yourself if this unwholesome concept is helpful or productive in your life and if not, what would be.
Step 2: Now write out an affirmation on the positive aspect of your self-judgment. You may want to use a thesaurus to find more powerful words to beef up your statement. For example instead of saying, “I’m worthy.” You could say, “I’m remarkable and cherished.” After you have written your affirmation then ask a close friend to read it to see if they have any suggestions to make it stronger.
Step 3: Speak the affirmation out loud for about five minutes three times a day – morning, mid day and evening. An ideal time to do this is when you’re putting your make up or shaving so that you can look at yourself in the mirror as you repeat the positive statement. Another option that helps to reinforce the new belief and would be easy to do at work is to write out the affirmation several times in a notebook. Notice over time as you write it if your style of writing changes. This could be a clue as to how your mind perceives the new concept. I call this exercise using the mindfulness journal to forward the agenda of the positive affirmation.
Step 4: Anchor the affirmation in your body as you are repeating it by placing your hand on the area that felt uncomfortable when you wrote out the negative belief in Step One. Also “breathe” into the affirmation while you are saying or writing it. As you reprogram your mind you want to move from the concept of the affirmation to a real, positive embodiment of the quality you seek.
Step 5: Get a friend or coach to repeat your affirmation to you. As they are saying for example, “You are remarkable and cherished” identify this statement as ‘good mothering’ or ‘good fathering’ messages. If you don’t have someone who you feel comfortable asking then use your reflection in the mirror as the person who is reinforcing the healthy message.
Affirmations can be a powerful tool to help you change your mood, state of mind, and manifest the change you desire in your life. But they work best if you can first identify the unwholesome belief that is opposing them. If these suggestions are still not helping then I recommend seeing a professional therapist to help you uncover what is buried deep in your unconscious and/or start a mindfulness meditation practice. Mindfulness meditation is a very effective method to help you uncover your unconscious thought patterns and allows you to categorize them identifying what is wholesome, negative and afflicted. Mindfulness is not about change rather it’s about the power and ability to accept first what is then to transmute towards what is possible. Try it and see how your life can improve!

Written by Ronald Alexander, PhD

Ronald Alexander, PhD is a leadership consultant, psychotherapist, international trainer, and the Executive Director of the Open Mind Training Institute, a leading edge organization that offers personal and professional training programs in mind-body therapies, transformational leadership, and mindfulness. He is the author of the widely acclaimed book Wise Mind, Open Mind: Finding Purpose and Meaning in Times of Crisis, Loss and Change that provides practical and innovative applications to help us through today’s challenging times. Alexander is a pioneer in the fields of Positive PsychologyCreativity Thinking, Eastern Wisdom Traditions and Mindfulness Training. To learn more about mindfulness visit www.RonaldAlexander.com.

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Venous Disease Management

From surface-level discoloration and blemishes to constant pain or discomfort, our team will resolve your venous disease symptoms at the source, thereby restoring your comfort, enhancing your wellness, and rejuvenating your confidence.

Sclerotherapy is most commonly used to treat spider veins, or veins wherein stagnated blood flow causes them to appear as dark blue and/or purple webs across the skin. This treatment involves the injection of a sclerosant, or chemical irritant, to interact with the vein walls and prompt them to collapse. Once the vein has been closed, the blood will naturally reroute itself to the healthier veins nearby.

Sclerotherapy commonly requires two to five sessions in total. Otherwise, patients will reap the benefits of minimal downtime, no scarring, and long-lasting results.

RF Ablation

RF ablation, short for radiofrequency ablation, is a safe and clinically-reliable thermal method for eliminating superficial venous disease occurring within the greater and/or shorter saphenous veins. By ablating (or collapsing) the veins using radiofrequency energy, RF ablation achieves the rerouting of blood flow in a manner similar to that of sclerotherapy.

This treatment is sometimes combined with sclerotherapy and ultrasound vein mapping.

Deep Venous Disease Diagnosis & Treatment

On the rare occasion a patient undergoes any of the aforementioned venous treatment and still finds they are not satisfied with the result(s), their physician may need to assess their deep venous system.

If further treatment is deemed necessary, the physician will inject a contrast dye into both femoral veins and use a vascular ultrasound to determine the underlying cause of the continuing condition(s) and symptoms.

Angioplasty and/or stenting may follow once the next treatment course is determined.

Ultrasound Studies

Ultrasound scanning, also referred to as “sonography,” is the process by which a physician utilizes high-frequency sound waves to non-invasively generate a vascular map of the patient. This identifies areas of stagnation and blockage, as it tracks the patient’s blood flow in real-time.

Aside from diagnostic purposes, ultrasound may also be used to guide the placement of a catheter or needle, to aid the stenting process, and more.


Top 10 Things You Can Learn When You Let Your Guard Down

Letting your guard down is not easy to do. For this reason, many try to avoid doing this but avoiding this act can do more harm than good. There is much to be learned when you take the chance of letting your guard down. This article highlights the top ten things you can know when you take the leap and allow yourself to be vulnerable.

1. More Happiness: One of the best things you can learn from letting your guard down is how to experience more happiness. When we have our guards up, it keeps us from being our true selves and from being able to enjoy life to the fullest because we are always worried or concerned. As we learn to let go and be free, we can experience moments and people at their fullest, leading to more profound moments of happiness.

2. Less Loneliness: Letting your guard down is a way to help establish meaningful relationships with other people. As you do this, you have more people in your life that you can enjoy and be vulnerable to, leading to less loneliness. Having this pool of people you can confide in and engage with can help prevent the isolation that leads to loneliness.

3. More empathy: When you let your guard down, you can learn to be more understanding. Something about being vulnerable yourself helps you realise the need to and relative ease of relating to other people and their experiences. As you let your guard down and share more, you’ll be more open to what others share, which will help you to have more empathy.

4. More Authenticity: Letting your guard down is an excellent way to help you learn to be more authentic. When your guard is up, you spend much time hiding and trying to present how you feel others would best receive you. This often means that you are giving a version of yourself that is not truly aligned with who you are.

But when you let your guard down, you are allowing people to see you for who you indeed are and trusting them to accept/embrace you in this manner. Thus, you learn to stop caring what other people think and find the freedom to be the person you are in all spaces and arenas.

5. Deeper Connection: The more authentic you can be and the more understanding you learn to become as a result of letting your guard down, the deeper the connections you’ll be able to form with other people.

People will respond to you based on what you put out. If you offer vulnerability, authenticity, and understanding, they will perceive you as a safe and trustworthy place. As a result, they are more likely to respond to you in an authentic, experience, and transparent manner that allows both parties to feel cared for and connected in a meaningful way.

6. Greater Confidence: You can learn to be more confident by letting your guard down. It can be a scary and uncomfortable process to be vulnerable in this manner. However, leaning into the discomfort and letting your guard down teaches you to believe in yourself and your ability to do hard things. Seeing that you can overcome obstacles and pain will empower you to continue to face difficult things in life.

7. Self-Worth: Letting your guard down requires a high level of vulnerability, but when you do it and are accepted and received by others, it can help show you the value and worth you have.

When others can receive the authentic version of yourself that you present from letting your guard down, you’ll see the good you have to offer just being you. This means you will no longer need to misrepresent yourself or conceal yourself because you’ll know the importance and significance of who you are and how you are.

8. How to Work Through Mistakes: When you let your guard down, you expose your lack of knowledge or skill in a particular area, leading to mistakes and mishaps. Letting your guard down and experiencing this shows you that it is simply a part of life and is completely okay.

When mistakes are made, they can be worked through and overcome and should not serve to define us. Instead, we see that we can learn from them and apply that knowledge to future situations to achieve success.

9. What Your Needs Are: When you can let your guard down, you can also learn more about your specific needs. This allows you to pause and reflect on your current state honestly and determine what might be lacking from your life that would benefit you or get you closer to your goals. You can then develop a plan for how to get those needs met, so you don’t continue experiencing lack.

10. How to Cope with Emotions: When you let your guard down and are vulnerable, you often uncover a host of emotions (some not so appealing) that you must learn to overcome if you want to progress in life.

Letting your guard down forces you to face these emotions rather than mask them or pretend they are non-existent. In doing so, you learn healthy coping mechanisms that allow you to process how you feel and genuinely move forward instead of burying things so that your emotions don’t come back to hurt you later down the line.

Final Thoughts

Letting your guard down is one of the healthiest exercises you can engage in. While not the most comfortable feeling, you will find that you benefit immensely and experience significant growth and progress as a result.


1. Shihabuddin, Courtney DNP, RN
  2. Karl, Joyce DNP, RN
  3. Momeyer, Mary Alice DNP, RN

Article Content

Peer-assisted learning (PAL) is a method in which students help each other learn, as well as learn themselves by teaching. Through PAL, students acquire knowledge and skill through active help and support processes.1 Alternative terms for PAL commonly include "peer teaching," "peer mentoring," and "peer support." A variation type is "near-peer learning," which is defined as a student from the same educational program teaching a student at a lower level within the program.2 Faculty can use PAL as a specific teaching strategy for active learning assignments. It also can be informally initiated or generated by students themselves, who realize the benefits of working together, for example, in the formation of study groups.

The effectiveness of PAL has been established for clinical teaching in medicine and other allied health disciplines; however, there is limited, concrete evidence of learning outcomes in this literature. In the last decade, there has been an increase in interest of using PAL as a collaborative model for practice placements for nursing students. Studies have been primarily limited to undergraduate students and not focused on the provider level in graduate nursing. While there is mutual agreement on the benefits of PAL, most studies recognize a lack of measurable learning outcomes.3

The Assignment: Strategy

Challenged by the abrupt disruptions in the learning environment due to the COVID-19 pandemic, graduate nursing faculty pivoted to provide students with alternative opportunities to support clinical learning, as recommended by the American Association of Colleges of Nursing in 2020.4 In an advanced assessment course, nurse practitioner (NP) students needed opportunity and direction to continue learning history and physical assessment techniques. In the same specialty track, NP clinical practicum students in their final semester prior to graduation needed to further build their skills in clinical reasoning, formulating differential diagnoses, and developing comprehensive management plans.

Faculty in both courses collaborated to create a structured, virtual assignment that required involvement of all students in both courses. Although both courses were previously conducted as synchronous sessions in the face-to-face classroom, near-peer learning provided an opportunity for learners to continue in a virtual environment while receiving the support from their peers who they identified with most.

The Assignment: Design

The following exemplar illustrates the PAL teaching methodology used as the basis for design of the active learning assignment. Case studies simulated real-life patient scenarios. The objective-structured clinical examination (OSCE) strategy was used with preassigned small groups for reciprocal learning on a virtual platform (Zoom), simulating a telehealth clinical encounter. Additional evidence-based teaching-learning techniques were used, including small group learning interactions, demonstration of telehealth assessment techniques, and students' self-reflection of the overall experience.

Specific assignment objectives for the advanced assessment students were to develop focused history taking and assessment skills and acquire focused physical examination skills while using a virtual platform. In the virtual laboratory setting, assessment students took turns in the role of the NP, conducting a history and demonstrating the physical examination for each of the cases. The assessment students were able to practice and refine assessment skills based on individualized, real-time feedback from practicum student facilitators. Assessment findings were documented in a clinical summary submission.

Objectives for the clinical practicum student group were to build diagnostic reasoning and patient management skills as well as demonstrate mastery of clinical course content. It was anticipated that these students would identify an increase in self-confidence as they realized their own progress since taking the assessment course themselves the year prior. A shared objective for both student groups in this near-peer assignment was to experience an interactive learning exercise that incorporated sharing and socialization for mutual benefits.

Steps of the Assignment

Each clinical practicum student was required to facilitate at least 1 virtual advanced assessment laboratory session. Prior to the laboratory session, practicum students created case studies based on faculty-guided chief complaints and demographic characteristics. Cases were developed according to an outline and included the elements of a patient history, physical examination, and potential differential diagnoses. To further demonstrate critical thinking, clinical reasoning, and clinical judgment as an NP provider, practicum students also developed comprehensive treatment, follow-up, and patient education plans for the working diagnoses.

The scheduled laboratory portion of the assignment included 2 main live-interactive components. Practicum students served as both the standardized patient and facilitator for assessment students who worked through a case in the NP role focused on history taking and physical examination. As the case scenarios were completed, dedicated discussion time allowed for real-time verbal feedback among all those involved. Following the laboratory session, practicum students formally critiqued the assessment students' written clinical summary and provided feedback using a faculty-developed rubric. This feedback was shared with each assessment student after faculty review. Finally, the clinical practicum students submitted a reflection to describe their learning, as well as the assignment's benefits and challenges.

Faculty evaluated the overall performance of both student groups during the laboratory sessions as satisfactory or unsatisfactory based on the observation of students' efforts and engagement. There were no other objective criteria used to evaluate the laboratory performance. Faculty provided feedback on the assignment's written components using a defined rubric.

Outcomes were measured using a simple Likert scale survey to evaluate the perceptions of both groups of students. Survey comments and final student reflections provided qualitative feedback. The students reported unanimously that the peer-facilitated assignment was a valuable experience overall in terms of learning, with gains in knowledge, skills, support, and confidence.

Assessment students at the brink of their clinical practicum identified that being paired with practicum learners helped them better understand the real-world context of their upcoming NP clinical practicum experience. One student highlighted:

It was helpful to have someone who was close to where we were at in the program to help guide us and teach us as they were actively in the clinical setting that we would soon be in. I felt like they were able to relate to our nerves/feelings/worries about clinical and learning assessments and could put our minds at ease a little bit.

Practicum students valued the exercise as an opportunity to apply knowledge and demonstrate clinical reasoning. One student's summative comments was as follows: "Developing cases helped improve critical thinking and application of advanced assessment skills while formulating differential diagnoses and integrating appropriate clinical practice guidelines."

Both groups of students reported the online interaction and socialization with peers were an added benefit. Faculty concurred that each of the assignment objectives was met. The use of this near-peer learning activity as an interactive learning experience provided an opportunity for nurse educators to improve learner confidence while developing students' clinical competence.

Adapting to the virtual environment for clinical interactions posed challenges. Faculty needed to adapt educational strategies for clinical competency in the evolving health care environment, meeting both cohorts' learning needs. In addition to the clinical focus, instruction on telehealth as a method to conduct a simulated patient encounter was required. Other logistical challenges included coordination of efforts, scheduling interactive laboratory time, and communication among all participants. Some students had issues with time management, scheduling, and internet connectivity, including freezing screens or loss of internet connection. Despite these challenges, students reported a positive experience with this near-peer learning activity.

The incorporation of PAL and near-peer learning is a valuable tool for nursing educators to consider and possibly integrate into curricula. Although this exemplar was developed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, this strategy has positive impact, both in the virtual learning environment and in face-to-face clinical education. Further efforts are needed to identify resulting learning outcomes.

1. Topping KJ, Ehly SW. Peer assisted learning: a framework for consultation. J Educ Psychol Consult. 2001;12(2):113-132. doi:10.1207/S1532768XJEPC1202_03 [Context Link]

2. Henderson S, Needham J, van de Mortel T. Clinical facilitators' experience of near peer learning in Australian undergraduate nursing students: a qualitative study. Nurse Educ Today. 2020;95:104602. doi:10.1016/j.nedt.2020.104602 [Context Link]

3. Markowski M, Bower H, Essex R, Yearley C. Peer learning and collaborative placement models in health care: a systematic review and qualitative synthesis of the literature. J Clin Nurs. 2021;30(11/12):1519-1541. doi:10.1111/jocn.15661 [Context Link]

4. Statement regarding nurse practitioner students and direct care clinical hours. 2020. Accessed September 21, 2021.[Context Link]


Pinnacle Adventures and Safaris

Tanzania is Africa’s visual masterpiece

“Welcome to the unrivalled, diverse beauty that we are proud to call our homeland. A land that we would love to share with you today and are actively preserving for future generations, therefore, one-quarter of the country has been set aside for conservation purposes. The world-renowned Serengeti National Park and the vast Selous Game Reserve are the pinnacles of a rich mosaic of protected areas that collectively, harbour an estimated 20% of Africa’s large mammal population.”

Mountain Climbing

Day Trips

Safari Bookings


Certain activities are known to boost the mental health of the elderly. Some of the activities that can boost the mental health of the elderly are exercise and sports. Structured activities that are not physically demanding can help the elderly become less agitated and improve the quality of their sleep.

Outdoor Activities for Senior Citizens

Physical Exercise

The elderly can do many physical activities around their homes. Soft music can help even the most mobility compromised elderly people to do some exercise. Music allows the elderly to move with their arms and legs, even when seated. Exercise improves blood circulation and the release of hormones such as endorphin, which improves the mood of the elderly. Improved blood circulation as a result of exercise helps slow down the development of dementia.

Reminiscence Therapy

This type of therapy acts as a form of anti-depressant and can help to engage the elderly. Allowing the elderly to recount their long-term memories allows them to engage even more. The elderly are more comfortable talking about their experiences than following up on the news. Activity coordinators can use a range of items from the past in reminiscence therapy sessions.

Therapists can encourage the elderly to engage in certain crafts to help them relate to the world outside their homes. Encouraging the elderly to participate in activities such as making Christmas cards and decorations can help improve their mental health. Allow the elderly to participate in themed events including Halloween parties to help them feel they are still active participants in life.

Elements of Mental Health Care

Different treatments are often recommended for various mental illnesses. Typical mental health care treatments include psychiatric therapy and medication. Many therapists integrate patients’ families into the treatment plans of the patients.

Need for Public Programs and Funding

Elderly people suffering from various mental problems often find themselves homeless, uninsured or out of work. Families of elderly people with severe mental issues often have to deal with financial and emotional problems when caring for their loved ones. Therefore, elderly mental health treatment often involves seeking funding through public programs.

About a quarter of adults above the age of 60 in the U.S., suffer from mental illnesses such as anxiety, depression, dementia, and autism among others. Effective mental health care has helped more than 70 percent of the elderly with mental illnesses improve the quality of their lives.

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Psychosis with Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital Industry - Stanford, MIT, etc.

Recently, working with lots of big brands, for NFT, NBA, Saturday Night Live, NFL, The Onion, Funny or Die and many other celebrities - Now investing big world wide, the deal size imaginable. But, the reoccurring patterns are the LOSERS from top schools, Stanford, MIT, etc. where they cannot handle the success of upcoming NFT investors, Snoop Dogg, Paris Hilton, with the fuel for economy - Same pattern as the music industry, Tupac Shakur, Notorious BIG, now translated to WEB3, metaverse, crypto, NFT and mRNA. The new design palette, coming from inspirations and passion from Black Lives Matter, now worldwide, especially in India, where all the engineering resources have completely moved out to - Giving these OLD style venture capital a chance to do business. However, the new media, understands the discriminations from the past, pushing them towards civil war. Not to take the evil bait, rather continue focused, head down, on own creativity - Be free to express in music and other outlets. But we wavy of your investors, especially LOSERS that 'pretend' to never reach your stature, that die every day in their own misery, and suck energy like vampires on social media.


Ap Lit Sample Essays – The Facts

This article was co-authored by Stephanie Wong Ken, MFA Stephanie Wong Ken is a writer primarily based in Canada. The style specificity of the work, which reveals a mess of its meanings, is decided not only by the combination of stable and particular person beginnings but also by the fact that the work belongs to a sure literary motion. The same genre in different literary directions acquires new features. For instance, a romantic poem with its agony to the exclusivity of characters and situations may be very different from a realistic one, with its historic and psychological accuracy in the development of characters, even in the creative means of 1 creator. The sentimental novel with its entertaining plot and using options of the epistolary model is a very different complete in comparison with the life like novel, which is distinguished by broad socio-historic generalizations, the richness and number of motivations and associations, and the typological depth of generalization.

One of the crucial underrated parts of any essay is understanding the viewers. What proves this to be true is that when writing a paper that is to be written by your fellow peers the tone, terminology, and data being distributed is fully totally different than if it was designated for a first-time reader. Knowing the target audience from the beginning has a big impact on how the factors will be structured and introduced all through the assignment. Keep this in mind when tackling any literary analysis essay.

Despite the fact that at first it might appear to be an awful factor that you have to do an essay on a very big piece of literature, it’s actually a blessing on the subject of writing the actual literary evaluation. These massive works will often embrace a variety of characters which can be inter-related and you need to use all their paths in the original work to sustain your idea and provides relevant examples from their actions or their wishes and targets. So long as you’re taking enough time to learn your entire factor and take coherent and precise notes that can help you with the writing part, it won’t matter if the ebook has 1000 pages, you may be simply crusing by all the information and you will have the posh of selecting what to incorporate in your essay and what not. Opposed to small books or novels the place you will have to maintain looking for extra context or inspiration on your essay.

Basically, all essays and professional research papers are a bit alike. And all because they are written in keeping with a single template, a clear construction. There are even organizations that put forward standardized requirements. For instance, chances are you’ll be tasked with writing an essay in APA or MLA fashion.

Simple Plans Of essay samples Explained

Standards For Core Elements Of literature essay

There’s a problem: your professors assign you the books and they ask you to write down the paper, but they don’t educate you easy methods to write a literary essay step-by-step. Some students assume they’ll discover some critiques on Goodreads and paraphrase them. Others go through blogs maintained by passionate readers, they usually assume that that is the model they should follow.

Your title ought to convey the topic of your paper in a concise and engaging means. It often accommodates the identify of the textual content you’re writing about, and may additionally comprise the name of the author. Apart from this, it should concisely and intriguingly summarize what your evaluation focuses on.

One other essential lesson Flaubert tried to put in in his pupil was to take a look at every part throughout the context of any literary work and uncover the one element that every other reader has missed. Flaubert explained the truth that each piece has some hidden labyrinth or message unexplored (Charters, Guy shamash in gilgamesh De” 523). The lessons put in in Maupassant by Flaubert could also be a large consider the way he wrote. Since Flaubert centered so much on particulars and hidden unexplored messages, it’s simple to see why there are so many subtle clues in The Necklace” that readers can uncover and interpret as they wish.

A basic definition of a literary essay is a short, true to life writing that spreads for all intents and functions any creative point possible. Writers once in a while write scholarly essays for studying delight instead of to pass on a message, and college students are steadily appointed literary essays to survey their perception into books or stories they learn.

It’s tough to tell who’s doing what to what in this version. It makes the reader surprise ‘who?’ It’s as if the duvet of the pot was magically removed and changed, and we can’t really tell that the Little Pig was the one answerable for defeating the Wolf. Although it’s sometimes acceptable to use passive voice, most writing should be in lively voice.

Reading quite a lot of views will increase your knowledge of your subject and lets you show to your reader that you’ve considered views other than your individual. Theme: A most important idea or an underlying that means of a literary work that could be acknowledged instantly or indirectly.

Compose a robust thesis. The THESIS of a literary analysis should be specific, restricted, and open to potential disagreement. As well as, it needs to be ANALYTICAL , not EVALUATIVE Your objective is to not go judgment but to counsel a method of seeing the textual content.

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