How to Cook Lamb Chops to Crisp, Tender Perfection

Here's how to give each and every kind of lamb chop the royal treatment.

March 11, 2021
Photo by Rocky Luten

Lamb chops are a scrumptious, savory treat, and a lovely way to bring variety to the typical rotation of chicken, beef, and pork. Quick-cooking and tender—depending on the cut, of course—lamb chops also possess a uniquely rich character that pairs well with many different combinations of herbs and spices. Learn how to cook lamb chops to achieve the best possible result, and bring this impressive dish to the table more often.

Types of Lamb Chops

"Lamb chop" is a broad term that can refer to several different cuts of meat. To understand how to cook a lamb chop, it's important to know which cut you're cooking. The two most popular kinds are rib chops and loin chops, but you'll also see shoulder (or blade), sirloin, and leg chops in the butcher's case from time to time.

Rib chops are cut from the rack: the primal cut from the upper part of the spine, below the shoulder. With a long rib bone attached to the round chop, rib chops are shaped a little like lollipops, or miniature tomahawk steaks. Some butchers even call them "lamb lollipops," or lollipop chops. Rib chops are often sold "frenched," meaning the bone has been thoroughly stripped of tissue, leaving a clean white handle (again, much like a lollipop). These chops are known for their exceptional tenderness, so they're also generally one of the more expensive cuts. For this reason, rib chops should be treated with care to avoid overcooking. Pan-searing for just a couple minutes on each side is recommended.

Loin chops are similar to rib chops, but they're cut from the "saddle" part of the loin, farther down the spine. These chops are the ones that look like miniature T-bone steaks. Like rib chops, loin chops are also very tender. Because they're cut thicker than rib chops, and because they have a bone running through the center, loin chops can withstand more direct heat, making them good candidates for grilling, broiling, or roasting.

Shoulder chops are also known as blade chops. These cuts are usually less expensive than rib or loin chops because, although shoulder meat is delicious, the muscles there do more work, and therefore are not particularly tender. Consequently, shoulder chops are ideal for braising or slow-roasting, methods that allow the fat to render and the connective tissues to soften. That goes for the less-common "arm chop" as well.

Farther down the animal are the sirloin and leg chops, sometimes also called leg steaks. In terms of tenderness, these cuts are somewhere between shoulder chops and rib chops. They hold up very well on the grill, and taste best cooked to an even medium temperature.

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Seasoning Lamb Chops

Seasoning your chops is where cooking lamb gets really fun. Lamb's flavor profile lends itself to a wide variety of options drawn from many styles of cuisine. Fresh herbs, spice rubs, and sauces are generally the best methods for seasoning lamb. Marinades can work, too, but they usually don't add as much flavor as you'd think they would, and marinating lamb for too long can actually lead to unpleasant textures.

In terms of complementary flavor profiles, there's almost nothing that doesn't work well with lamb. Mediterranean flavors like rosemary and oregano, Indian spices like garam masala, Middle Eastern seasonings such as dukkah, and South American condiments like chimichurri all pair fabulously with lamb. Asian flavors like Chinese five spice also play well with this versatile meat.

Lamb Chop Temperature

Temperature is by far the most critical aspect of cooking lamb chops. Undercooking even tender lamb chops can render them unpleasantly chewy, while overcooking will lead to tough, dried-out meat.

Rib chops should be cooked to about 130°F, while loin chops are better at 135°F or even 140°F. Leg, sirloin chops, and shoulder chops (unless you're braising them) should be cooked to between 140°F and 145°F. For best results, allow the chops to come to room temperature before cooking, and always use a quality, instant-read meat thermometer.

What's your favorite way to make lamb chops? Let us know in the comments.

Cook More Lamb Chops

See what other Food52 readers are saying.

Pete Scherer

Written by: Pete Scherer

2tattered April 4, 2021
Where’s the recipe for the lamb chops in the picture with peas and mint?
2tattered April 5, 2021
Thank you!


Is a thesis statement a question

A persuasive thesis statement is a compelling thesis statement, which can also be termed as being argumentative, strives to show your readers an accurate claim which you back with evidence. For a majority of essays, be they policy, compare and contrast , narrative or argumentative, the thesis statement is often persuasive.

Can a thesis be a question? How to ask question in thesis ... The most evident answer to this question is “you cannot shape your thesis statement in a form of question” because it’s simple – a statement is a statement, and cannot be a question. What is a thesis statement/research question? How do I ... Answer: A thesis statement (also called a research question) is considered the "main point" in academic writing. It brings organization and theme to your writing. Generally you should do preliminary research before creating your thesis and this statement may be revised during your research and writing process.

How to Write a Thesis Statement | Strategies, Tips and Examples 7 Aug 2018 ... Check these frequently asked questions regarding thesis statements we are asked by our readers and the answers that we have prepared:. How to Write a Good Cancer Thesis Statement These are not simple questions to answer without a properly crafted thesis statement. In essence, a thesis statement about cancer answers questions by offering ... Chapter 5. Putting the Pieces Together with a Thesis Statement Asking and then answering this question is vital to forming a thesis that is precise, ... On a sheet of paper, write a thesis statement for each of the following topics.

You might begin by explaining why the US was not eager to enter the war to begin with, and then you'll end your opening paragraph with your thesis statement. Be Sure Your Thesis Answers the Question. A thesis statement should be a concise sentence that shows how you'll answer the question you have been given. How to write a thesis for beginners - YouTube The basics of writing a thesis statement or introduction sentence. Check out the tutorial for works cited page help. ... How to answer TELL ME ABOUT YOURSELF interview question ... PDF How to Generate a Thesis Statement - How to Generate a Thesis Statement Your thesis statement should answer a question about the issue or theme you'd like to explore. In this situation, your job is to figure out the question to which you'd like to respond. Thesis Statement: writing a great essay introduction Thesis Statement: This is an important part of any essay as it tells the reader exactly what you are planning to tell them, or your viewpoint. This lesson shows you how to write a thesis statement for a short IELTS essay.

Dec 16, 2008 · Best Answer: A thesis statement is to an essay (or any long piece of expository writing) what a topic sentence is to a paragraph. It states the overall main idea. In an essay, it's good to make the thesis statement the last sentence of the first paragraph--i. e. the first paragraph is …

What Is a Thesis Statement? A Simple Answer and Examples Are you wondering what a thesis statement is and what it is not? Here's a very simple but comprehensive explanations with many thesis statement examples. Thesis Statement Examples: Learn the Nitty-Gritty of… An engaging thesis statement must be logical, and cryptic.Well, there’re more to it and for apprehending rest of the factors, you need to read the full blog

Can a thesis statement be a question? -

Brainstorming - The Writing Center Do you see that you have more to say about one or two of the questions? Or, are your answers for each question pretty well balanced in depth and content? Was there one question that you had absolutely no answer for? How might this awareness help you to decide how to frame your thesis claim or to organize your paper? PDF Q: What is the difference between a working thesis and a ...

How to write a thesis statement - A step-by-step guide We'll now look at the process for writing a thesis statement. To do so, we will look at a few different questions so you can get a broad sense of what a thesis needs to do. How to Write a Thesis Statement in 5 Simple Steps Because the thesis statement still isn't perfect, we'll move on to the next essential component. How to write a thesis statement step #4: Create a mini-outline of the paper. A basic thesis statement will provide readers with a clear outline of your paper. It will tell readers what to expect in the upcoming paragraphs. PDF The Difference between a Research Question and a Thesis Statement The Difference between a Research Question and a Thesis Statement Many of us have been taught that in order to start a research paper we need a thesis statement, and while that's true, coming up with the thesis statement first is not necessarily a good way to start your research. Thesis Statements | Guides


More than 60 people were killed while clearing snow

14:25, Tuesday, 19 January, 2021
More than 60 people were killed while clearing snow

The Japanese government will provide emergency financial assistance to the country’s northern regions, where there are not enough resources for snow removal. Kazuyoshi Wakaba, Minister of State Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism, of Japan, announced today at a press conference in Tokyo.
     At a press conference in Tokyo, the minister added that more than 60 people had died while trying to clean their homes from the snow flooded them.
     The Japanese minister added, “The government will quickly calculate the required amounts and provide for the safe removal of blemishes. We are very concerned about the killing of a record number of citizens during the snow disposal operations.”
     According to the minister, the number of victims this year surpassed the previous sad record set in the winter of 2017-2018.
     The majority of those killed during snow-clearing of buildings are older people who fell from the roofs of their homes while trying to clean them from the snow.

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5107 | 0


How can J find out about upcoming availability?

1) Please fill out the adoption application and indicate which list you would like to join anywhere on the form. This is a fillable online form and takes about 10 minutes to complete. Please see the blog post for details

2) Email: Puppyinquiries@MABernedoodles.com

3) I’ll then return a message immediately with the upcoming availability and we can go from there!


by Sam O’Bryant

Since 2011, I have worked on projects and initiatives that have deliberately and intentionally discussed the role of race and equity in America. My work has included planning regional conferences on racial healing in the American South, hosting community conversations on race in the Delta, and even promoting black male achievement within urban education reform. Prior to 2011, when I worked in a local government office, I was able to incorporate messages about environmental justice into a largely commercialized discussion on the emerging green economy. In short, I speak equity and I likely know racism when I see it. If you add my personal experience of growing up in the Mississippi Delta, living in a voluntarily re-segregated community, one might say I have a unique perspective of understanding systemic racism from cradle to career. The one thing I can offer, having lived my life and worked this career, is that this work hasn’t gotten easier. Sure, I can deal with a lot. But I am not the problem. The work is tough and I hope this explains why.

1) You Have to Understand That Racism and Oppression Evolves
Because we exist right now and see racism and oppression right now, it is easy to talk about fixing what’s wrong right now. But that can be a mistake. This happens most frequently when people speak on addressing poverty. This current state of poverty, which disproportionately impacts black people, did not happen yesterday or last night. And it likely won’t end in 3-5 years, per your recently approved grant award. This local concentration of poverty began when white politicians used government dollars to tear down black, middle class homes. It continued when these same politicians decided to erect an interstate highway through what used to be a middle class, black neighborhood. Removing home ownership, a means of wealth accumulation for most Americans, from a black community effectively puts them on a path to poverty… especially when housing segregation and redlining are the laws of the day. This is why baby girl, momma, and grandmomma can’t escape that cycle. You have to call out old policy and replace it with new, BOLD policy that changes systems and promotes equity. Teaching poor people to budget with money they don’t have doesn’t get them (or us) very far.

2) You Have to Become Comfortable with Using Phrases Like “White Male Supremacy” in Mixed Company
Throughout the history of America, oppression has been created and enabled by white men. These white men were usually in key positions of power, shaping and influencing the laws that govern us. The Supreme Court, established in 1789, was exclusively white and male until 1967. Even now, in 2017, the demographics for leadership in government, commerce, and non-profit organizations are overwhelmingly white and, often, male. No lie. This can be intimidating when working within these systems and trying to understand root causes of the problems we are tasked to address and, ultimately, solve. Even if race isn’t the issue (which is usually is), it will be adjacent to the issue and some bold soul has to speak that truth. And believe me when I say this, NOTHING gets a room quieter than saying white supremacy. But it is a reality that we have to deal with. If your organization is governed by mostly white men, its executive team is mostly white men, and they’ve never been intentional in hiring women or people of color in executive roles, the issue is white male supremacy. This doesn’t make them tiki-torch toting terrorists, it just means that they have no frame of reference beyond their own. And they don’t understand how that frame of reference oppresses people and suppresses opportunity for people that don’t look like them. But sometimes they do understand and that’s a whole ‘nother problem.

3) People of Color Can Enable White Supremacy
Just because you work in a majority black city, with an organization that overwhelmingly employs black people, and your clients are overwhelmingly black… that DOES NOT mean you are an agent of equity. Racism works systemically and this is why it is important to view things from a systemic view. Was this system originally built to empower people of color? Has the design of the system changed since people of color became the majority? Do you, as an employee, deliberately and intentionally, seek to create ways to empower people of color in this system? If you answered “no” to any of these questions, you probably enable white supremacy. The needs of people of color, black people in particular, are uniquely rooted in the oppression that was created specifically for them. Because racism is systemic, we have to be intentional in its dismantling. We can’t have good intentions and hope we’re doing the right thing. You have to game plan to do what enables equity… even if that means scraping the original and building something new.

4) Creating Equity Can Be Lonely and You Might Get Fired
Remember when I mentioned being bold about saying and using “white male supremacy” in meetings where the impact of white male supremacy is obvious? Yeah… that doesn’t win you many new friends and your old friends may not invite you to the next round of meetings. Equity is lonely work because it makes people uncomfortable before it makes them think. During that moment of being uncomfortable is when people start to lose friends or even lose their job. In professional sports, we have seen this played out with athletes. Colin Kaepernick is the most recent example. Despite being a Super Bowl caliber quarterback with stats better than, at least, 15 starting NFL quarterbacks, he can’t get a team to sign him. Why? Teams were uncomfortable with his stance… a stance rooted in criminal justice reform and the prosecution of egregious acts of police brutality. Although Colin is not employed, his stance gained traction as other players knelt or displayed a raised fist. Recently, the National Football League has endorsed criminal justice reform in a letter to be sent to the US Senate. It’s not the endgame, but it is progress.

Remember that equity, as it is being marched out, is new to many organizations and new to many of those in leadership. There will be some misunderstandings. Some people will argue that it isn’t needed right now. Others will insist that it’s the same as equality. These people are wrong and need to stop talking. Simply put, equity is giving people what they need. It is not giving everyone the same thing. What people need can be best measured by taking a critical look at what they have been denied, systemically and historically.

Sam O’Bryant currently serves at the Senior Director for Equity & Partnerships at SchoolSeed Foundation. Sam is a graduate of Alcorn State University and is an advocate of historically black colleges and universities. In his spare time, Sam likes to figure what he’s going to do with his spare time.


diamond city

3.5 stars

This was an entertaining first book in a new YA fantasy series.

Aina Solís was an orphan living on the street when a brutal crime lord takes her in and trains her to be an assassin in a city built by magic and ruled by tyrants. As she climbs the ranks in the organization she dreams of striking out on her own and starting her own assassin club. Her boss gives her an impossible task – kill one of the most protected citizens in the city. If she completes the job, she will be given a huge payday and be free to open her own club with her bosses blessing.

Aina is laser focused on the job, but complications arise that will change her life forever. I can’t say more, otherwise it will spoil the story. I liked Aina and the other characters in the book. She was tough and kicked ass, but was still capable of having feelings for people and a sense of morality. The story was interesting and fast paced. There is an element of magic in the story and clearly there are more mysteries to uncover. I will definitely read more books in this series.


Learn Docker With My Newest Course

Docker Tip #51: Which Docker Compose API Version Should You Use?

Docker Compose currently has 3 major API versions (v1, v2 and v3). Certain features are enabled / disabled depending on which one you use.

You have probably seen the version: '2' or version: '3' property at the top of a docker-compose.yml file right?

Should You Ever Use v1?

If you don’t see a version property at all, that means you’re using v1 and nowadays that would be considered legacy and isn’t recommended. For starters, it doesn’t support named volumes, networking or custom build arguments. v1 will be deprecated at some point.

You can read all of v1’s limitations at Docker’s documentation.

Update in 2021: The new Docker Compose spec supports not defining a version property and is the recommended way to go moving forward. It supports both v2 and v3 properties. That makes this tip a little outdated but I’m leaving it around for historical purposes.

What about v2 or v3?

A hard and fast rule would be to use the latest version, but you aren’t really hurting yourself if you use an older version which is compatible with your docker-compose.yml file.

Some of the major differences between v2 and v3 is that v3 does not support using the volumes_from and extends properties. A whole bunch of the CPU and memory properties have also been moved to a deploy property in v3 instead.

It’s also worth mentioning if you happen to be using Docker Swarm, you’ll need to use v3+.

A full list of what works with v2 and v3 can be found here.

What about the docker-compose Binary Version?

You should always update to the latest version whenever possible because it will likely contain bug fixes. You can view the compatibility matrix on Docker’s site to see if your API version is compatible with a specific binary version (they are separate things).

Free Intro to Docker Email Course


The oil and gas industry is considering deploying large gravity-based structures (GBS) into the high Arctic seas for year-round production where they will be exposed to multiyear ice loads. Conceptual studies of such structures suggest that the design for the ice load and the low draft requirement during deployment to the Arctic become key design aspects, focusing the attention on force-resisting strategies and ice wall design. A well-designed ice wall in combination with a well-thought-out ice resistance strategy can significantly reduce the cost and construction/installation schedule of a GBS. Ice walls made of steel/concrete/steel composite have the potential to provide significant robustness at a lower weight than typical all-concrete ice walls. Composite ice walls also provide the potential of more robust behavior than all-steel ice wall concepts. Composite walls, thus, promise great value as ice walls for Arctic structures. To validate composite ice walls, a testing program was conducted that applied high-intensity loads to beam specimens 1.8 meters long and 0.3 meter thick with varying degrees of plate stiffening and concrete confinement. Strength, stiffness, ductility, load paths, and failure mechanisms were evaluated. Test variables included temperature, concrete density and strength, load paths, and type of composite load-carrying system. The paper demonstrates the viability of composite ice walls. It presents the results of the testing program, discusses the proposed ice wall configuration and appropriate design procedures, and proposes the steps that have to be taken before composite ice walls can be applied for design and construction of an actual GBS.

This content is only available via PDF.


Eight scenarios of the conflict in the Donbass

US, WASHINGTON (ORDO NEWS) —  All scenarios for resolving the conflict in the Donbass remain open – both those that Ukraine affects and those that can run in the Kremlin. Therefore, it is important to understand what consequences this or that choice will entail.

“European Truth” publishes an excerpt from a study conducted by our partners, the center “New Europe”. Here the scenarios of the development of the situation around Donbass for the coming year are analyzed, on the basis of the fact that the Ukrainian authorities set a deadline for Russia and itself to choose a strategy for resolving the conflict.

What was analyzed and how?

In what scenario can the conflict develop in the Donbass?

Of course, the development of events cannot be predicted in detail. All kinds of scenarios are possible, their branching and so on. This article highlights the key, most discussed options for the development of events. The New Europe Center analyzed their consequences, threats, as well as opportunities that may arise in Ukraine.

The study details six main scenarios and two sub-scenarios:

1) the status quo;
2) freezing the conflict;
3) the reintegration of Donbass on the principles of decentralization;
4) autonomy or special status of Donbass;
5) the military operation of Ukraine to return the occupied territories;
6) Russian offensive (full-scale invasion of Ukraine);
7 *) Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk agreements;
8 *) the introduction of a peacekeeping mission in the Donbass.

It is worth emphasizing once again that the last two options are rather sub-scenarios or tools for implementing the remaining scenarios – but because of their importance and the fact that they are a topic of discussion, both in Ukraine and in the partner states, they deserve special attention.

In addition to the analysis of the scenarios themselves and their consequences, we conducted a survey of 65 experts (38 Ukrainian and 27 foreign) to determine the most likely, according to experts, the most or least acceptable scenarios for Ukraine.

This study proceeds from the assumption that in the near future the Western sanctions policy regarding Russia will not change, that is, it will not become an independent factor determining the development of events in the Donbass. And if our optimism does not materialize and Western governments weaken sanctions, this, according to the CNE team, will launch the most negative scenarios in the Donbass. European Truth shares this assumption.

This analysis does not take into account unforeseen events that can rapidly and significantly change the balance of power on the continent.

Such events are usually called the “black swan.”

Also, we cannot rule out that in the longer term, Russia will resort to steps that now seem the least likely – for example, to recognize the “independence” of the occupied territories on the model of recognition of the occupied RF of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are components of Georgia, or even the next annexation of these territories, as happened with the Crimea.

However, this falls under our “status quo” scenario, according to which Moscow will retain its influence in the occupied territories and will strengthen it.

So, let’s start with it.

Scenario number 1. Status quo

Experts consider this option to be the most probable of all other possible models for the development of the situation in the Donbass.

To a certain extent, Ukrainian society has already adapted to the situation in the east, and Russia does not experience significant financial and political losses from the upkeep of the “republics” (the budget of the Russian Federation costs about two billion dollars a year). And therefore, this scenario, with a high probability, will “work” for another year. However, this scenario cannot be called optimal for Ukraine.

Experts rated its “desirability” at 4.09 out of 10. It means the continuation of hostilities, further human losses and the possible deterioration of the security situation in the frontline zone.

This scenario is costly for the state. In addition, Ukrainians may perceive the extension of the status quo as a demonstration of the insolvency or unwillingness of the authorities to resolve the conflict, contrary to election promises. Pro-Russian political forces may take advantage of a drop in confidence in the authorities. In addition, the longer the resolution of the conflict drags on, the more difficult it will be to reintegrate the Ordlo, because every year the inhabitants of the occupied territory only move away from Ukraine.

Since compliance with the status quo depletes the Ukrainian budget, the question is raised how Ukraine can withstand the continuation of this scenario. Active and effective implementation of reforms (anti-corruption, decentralization reforms, law enforcement reforms, etc.), attracting foreign investment and a significant improvement in the economic situation will contribute to the financial stability of the country.

On the other hand, the status quo provides for an insignificant probability of a significant escalation of hostilities with a rapid increase in human losses.

What should Ukraine do if this scenario becomes a reality?

It is necessary to build such communication with the population that would explain that, despite Ukraine’s compliance with the agreements (withdrawal of troops, compliance with the regime of silence, etc.) and readiness to make certain compromises, the situation cannot be moved from the dead point. For this reason, it is necessary to continue military operations aimed at protecting the unoccupied territory.

The status quo also does not exclude the possibility and necessity for Ukraine to establish a dialogue, to support those citizens who live in the occupied territories.

Scenario number 2. Conflict freeze

Freezing the conflict in eastern Ukraine has both advantages and disadvantages. The biggest plus is a stable ceasefire and the absence of casualties among military and civilians. The ceasefire will also help normalize life in eastern Ukraine and reduce the flow of immigrants from the region. Against this background, the support of the current Ukrainian president is likely to increase, since the cessation of hostilities (not necessarily the resolution of the conflict!) Was one of his main promises in the election campaign and the largest engine for certain concessions in the dialogue with the Russian Federation (for example, the signing of the Steinmeier formula).

It would also make it possible to strengthen social and political cohesion in society if the contradictions due to the course of the conflict in the Donbass decrease. Also, a ceasefire will allow Ukraine to better focus on the reform process instead of focusing on daily military operations. However, the freeze scenario has significant drawbacks.

Russia can use a stable ceasefire to shift the responsibility for non-compliance with the Minsk agreements to Ukraine. Russia will be able to adopt the argument “do not shoot – elections can be held.” Some Western countries are likely to support such a demand.

Among other shortcomings are the likelihood of lifting sanctions against Russia. There are already EU countries that would like to ease the sanctions regime, despite the lack of progress on the issue of conflict. The ceasefire on the Russian side may be an argument for countries such as Italy, France and others, which will lead to a split within the pro-Ukrainian coalition. And if this step is taken, then with a ceasefire and the lifting of sanctions, the conflict in Ukraine may lose relevance on the international agenda, which will weaken support for Ukraine in international forums and may reduce funding programs for Ukraine.

Freezing a conflict can create a gray zone and a protracted conflict for decades. The experience of other regions, the same Transnistria, proves that the zone of frozen conflict is turning into a region of shadow business and illegal schemes, with the smuggling of not only goods but also weapons. Moreover, a long frozen conflict could make Ukraine’s EU and NATO membership even more distant than today.

How to act Ukraine to prevent this scenario? To stabilize the ceasefire and freeze the conflict in Ukraine, a peacekeeping mission should be deployed. For Ukraine, of course, the most desirable scenario would be a mission with access to the entire occupied territory and to the Ukrainian-Russian border.

Scenario number 3. Reintegration of Donbass on the basis of decentralization

Such reintegration is the scenario that Ukraine insisted on during the Geneva talks in April 2014. However, six years of hostilities have shown its low effectiveness, since Russia requires not only the provision of additional budget preferences to the regions, as provided for by the current decentralization process, but also the transfer of some national level competencies to Donetsk and Lugansk.

“Decentralization” in accordance with the Russian vision should provide for the creation of “people’s militia” in the de-occupied territories; the right of local authorities to influence the formation of the judicial branch. Therefore, if decentralization is real in the medium or near term, it is most likely on the conditions of Russia.

And this means de facto that autonomy and federalization of the region is another scenario that is extremely undesirable for Ukraine (more on this later). It is also important to take into account the fact that in Ukraine there is no opportunity for an examination and insufficient strategic vision of how decentralization should take place in de-occupied territories, therefore, even under the most favorable conditions, errors are likely that can lead to unpredictable consequences.

The armed leaders of Donetsk and Lugansk, who are under the influence of Moscow, will in every way resist the full inclusion of territories in the legal field of Ukraine. One of the key threats to this scenario is that a large part of Ukrainian society will not perceive the individual stages of reintegration based on decentralization, even based on the Ukrainian vision.

Surveys of 2019 show that even the unoccupied part of the eastern regions of Ukraine favors a special status or federalization of the region. Therefore, reintegration based on general decentralization can be frustrated by local residents of Donbass, incited by Russia. It should also be borne in mind that in wider sectors of society there is no full support for all the elements of this scenario. The most talked about may be a decision on an amnesty for former militants.

The scenario provides for the gradual restoration of a full-fledged dialogue between Russia and Western countries. Sanctions that do not concern the annexation of Crimea will be lifted. Significant burden will be laid on Ukraine to restore reintegrated territories – according to preliminary estimates, we are talking about at least three hundred billion hryvnias.

Ukrainian support for the country’s course in NATO and the EU may decrease somewhat due to the return to the legal field of the state of millions of Ukrainians who do not perceive the western vector of development. It is possible that the ruling elites will temporarily abandon rhetoric about integration into the EU and NATO in order to restore public consensus.

At the same time, Russia will retain its political, economic, cultural, informational influence in Ukraine – especially in the eastern and southern regions.

Scenario number 4. Autonization or special status of Donbass (federalization of Ukraine)

This scenario is one of the least desirable, as it poses considerable threats to the social and political stability of Ukraine and will strengthen Russia’s influence. and at a certain stage, the Ukrainian government can promote de facto federalization under the guise of “decentralization,” but prolonged maneuvering is hardly possible.

The company generally does not perceive the option of “federalization” or “decentralization” according to the Russian model with the vesting of certain regions of Ukraine with the level of competencies that are usually characteristic of the central government. Surveys conducted in 2019 showed that no more than 25% of citizens support the special status (autonomy) of the territories now occupied. In this scenario, mass protests are almost inevitable in the country. There is no doubt that this can happen in Kiev and the western regions.

All this means that in the event of an attempt to implement such a scenario, Russia – even if it does not bring to completion the idea of a special status for the Donbass – will be able to create serious lines of public split in Ukraine. A special status or autonomy can provoke a “parade of autonomies”, when other regions of Ukraine will demand such a status for themselves – thus, new centers of instability will appear.

Western countries will gradually establish dialogue with Russia, there will be a transition to business as usual. The annexation of Crimea de jure will not be recognized, but it will not interfere with cooperation. And because of the “influx” into the legal field of the country of almost three million voters of Donbass, who have not participated in the elections in Ukraine over the past five years, the pro-Russian presence in the political establishment will grow.

It is likely that, as part of the reconciliation, trials in international instances on disputes between Ukraine and Russia will be curtailed (first of all, we are talking about the UN International Court of Justice).

The only possible advantage: relative stability can contribute to the flow of Western investment in Ukraine, but in reality this prospect is rather doubtful. An investor will not go to a country with significant internal turbulence.

There is a possibility of Ukraine receiving international assistance to restore the destroyed Donbass, and this factor should not be overestimated, using international experience – Western elites quickly lose interest in supporting post-war societies.

Scenario number 5. Ukrainian military operation

The offensive operation to return the occupied territories is one of the most difficultly predicted scenarios. It is difficult to execute because it requires jewelry work and can lead to unpredictable consequences for any mistake.

The scenario could include a “blitzkrieg”, that is, a short-term special operation (offensive in certain areas), rather than a full-scale long war. A military operation is more likely not a scenario itself, but a tool for moving from the status quo to other, more positive scenarios.

The purpose of the scenario is to demonstrate strength, raise rates and create an element of surprise in order to bring the Russian Federation off balance and restart the negotiation process on more favorable terms for Ukraine.

The complexity of the implementation of this scenario is due to the need for negotiations with Western partners (separately from the EU and the USA), the development of a powerful communication and military strategy, the development of its own “alternative to Minsk” and so on.

In addition, for a successful implementation, the following scenario will be required:

1) the unwavering position of the president and diplomats of Ukraine in negotiations with Western partners and Ukrainian society;
2) preparation of the operation in a top-secret environment;
3) significant economic costs;
4) the creation of a reliable system of territorial defense (providing defense in the north and south of Ukraine);
5) cohesion and coordination of all involved structures (OP, Verkhovna Rada, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense, General Staff, etc.);
6) a long time for preparation.

According to experts, the likelihood of such a scenario is extremely low and not least, given the high price and duration of its implementation. The feasibility of such a scenario, according to experts, also received a low score.

Risks (loss of military and civilian populations, domestic economic and political destabilization, loss of Western support, the possibility of a full-scale war with the Russian Federation, etc.) significantly outweigh the possible benefits.

Scenario number 6. Russian offensive

Maintaining the current status quo with the gradual depletion of the Ukrainian economy, when Ukrainian citizens are dying, and Russia still has a chance of getting out of international isolation, is a relatively inexpensive and advantageous option for Moscow. In addition, political transformation in Russia is a deterrent to the escalation of the conflict, because the latter can worsen relations between the Russian Federation and Europe and, most likely, will not contribute to Putin’s rating growth.

However, it is also impossible to exclude a new full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. It would be logical to assume that the Russian Federation can begin to intensify hostilities only when it feels a significant change in the situation in Ukraine – some kind of active movement in NATO and the EU, stable economic growth and the like.

This scenario is by far the most dangerous and one of the least desirable. It can lead to another political instability in the country, to disappointment of the population, to a deep economic crisis. Integration into the EU and NATO, obviously, will disappear from the agenda for a long time, which, in fact, is the goal of Moscow’s policy towards Ukraine.

We are talking about the development of events according to the Georgian scenario of 2008 – an open military operation under the guise of “peace enforcement.” However, such a scenario will contribute to the cohesion of Ukrainian society. And, most importantly, it will lead to Russia’s forced recognition of its participation in the conflict.

This change in the status of the Russian Federation can cause reputational losses, cause a rollback in relations with the West, lead to the cancellation of Minsk and the search for new formats for resolving the conflict. Such a political price is one of the important factors that make a full-scale offensive not too profitable for Russia and, therefore, less likely.

However, in the event that Russia feels the need to intensify hostilities, it will be more likely to use less radical means than a full-scale offensive, such as exacerbating undeclared operations, the use of “green men”, “separatist movements” and the like.

Scenario No. 7 * (first sub-scenario). Exit of Ukraine from Minsk

The Minsk agreements in recent years have been at the core of all international negotiations on the Donbass. But are they indestructible? What happens if their action ceases?

The exit from Minsk will have the greatest impact on relations between Ukraine and the West, primarily with Germany and partly France, while this step will not have significant consequences for the state of affairs in Ukraine itself. There are three conditions under which an exit from Minsk would be understood.

First, an alternative settlement plan, coordinated and approved by Western partners, will be needed.

Such an alternative scenario would be especially appropriate at the time of the change of power in Germany – the new chancellor does not have such a link to the Minsk agreements as the current one. One of the alternative scenarios could be the scenario of introducing a peacekeeping mission with the creation of an international transitional administration in the Donbass. The potential allies in this matter for Ukraine could be the United States, which does not have a sufficiently clear link to Minsk, like its European partners.

Today, in key EU countries, almost everyone is skeptical of Ukraine’s ability to offer an effective alternative to Minsk.

Secondly, Ukraine must demonstrate a serious violation of the Minsk agreements by the Russian Federation, which would prove the impossibility (or reluctance) of the Russian Federation to comply with them.

It is worth noting here that Ukraine already had such grounds even after the so-called “DPR or LPR” elections, which were a clear violation of the agreements, but they did not use this right in Kiev.

Thirdly, there should be a willingness to lift sanctions against the Russian Federation by the European Union, which are formally “tied” to the implementation of the Minsk agreements.

It is worth noting that the withdrawal from the Minsk agreements, even under favorable conditions, should be accompanied by serious preparatory diplomatic, coordination and communication work.

With a deeper analysis, Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk agreements is more beneficial for the Russian Federation than for Ukraine.

Therefore, the interviewed experts consider the best scenario for Ukraine not a way out of Minsk, but its modernization, which is generally positively perceived by Western partners. Accordingly, now the strategy of Ukraine should be reduced to the following statement of the question inside and outside: “either the modernization of Minsk, or another dead end.”

And Putin’s reluctance to adjust the Minsk agreements should be communicated as a reluctance to resolve the conflict.

Scenario No. 8 * (second sub-scenario). The introduction of a peacekeeping mission throughout the territory of the Ordlo

The appearance of peacekeepers in the Donbass, including, at the Ukrainian-Russian border, is considered the most popular of all other possible models for the development of the situation in the Donbass.

Given an optimally selected mission mandate and effective distribution of responsibility between the Ukrainian authorities and the leadership of peacekeepers, the likelihood of a lasting peace in the occupied territories can be high.

Ukraine will be able to begin the process of reintegration of the Donbass and pay more attention to European and Euro-Atlantic integration, in particular, the implementation of reforms. The scenario may increase confidence in government.

On the other hand, the introduction of a mission may lead to a partial lifting of sanctions against Russia. In addition, Crimea may disappear from the international agenda for a long time, because the “Ukrainian crisis” can be considered resolved. There is also a risk that Ukrainians will have high expectations from peacekeepers who, contrary to misconception, will neither be able to fight on the side of Ukraine, nor complete peace in a short time.

And due to the length of the mission, the de facto mission may have the consequences of freezing the conflict.

Despite the fact that 59% of the Ukrainian population is positive about the introduction of the mission, supporters of the peacekeeping scenario may have a different, sometimes mutually exclusive understanding of which mission mandate is optimal for Ukraine.

For example, the part of the HLS electorate that generally welcomes the introduction of peacekeepers into the ORDLO (32%) is more likely to support the “Russian version” of the mission (peacekeepers exclusively on the contact line), as well as the composition of the mission favorable to the Russian Federation (for example, representatives of Moscow’s CIS countries )

Therefore, when communicating the scenario with the general public, it should be clearly defined which mandate is most desired and why.

However, the likelihood of such a scenario being realized is so far assessed as low.

Russia is unprofitable for such a peacekeeping mission that would help Ukraine regain control of the Ordlo. Judging by the latest statements, Russia is no longer interested in the peacekeeping mission in the Donbass, even in the format that Vladimir Putin spoke in September 2017 (only on the front line).

At the same time, Western experts believe that the transitional administration format, with full control over the ORLDO, to the special representative of the UN Secretary General, can create certain threats for Ukraine, because Russia will try to control the work of peacekeepers at the UN Security Council level. At the same time, a “supervised transition” format is proposed, according to which the mission and Ukraine will jointly make decisions on all key political and administrative issues in the Ordlo.

This scenario cannot be considered separately from other conflict resolution models and is rather a tool to enhance their effectiveness.

Given the “flexibility of Minsk,” the peacekeeping mission should try to fit into the current format of negotiations with Russia or propose a format for the transitional international administration (UN and OSCE) as an alternative to Minsk.

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