Virginia offers many options for retirees

A person considering Virginia retirement is not evaluating a single lifestyle - the different regions of the state are as different as night and day. So, if you like mountain, coastal, suburban, lake, college or small town living, Virginia offers quite a few options.

From 1990-2000, Virginia became one of the top 10 states in attracting retirees from outside the state. Why? Well, there are lots of reasons.

In Northern Virginia, many older people want to be near their children who are working in the Washington area. On the Eastern Shore, Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads are attracting a group of military retirees. In general, people from the Midwest and Northeast are increasingly attracted to the “New Sunbelt,” those states from Washington, DC to Key West, Florida to El Paso, TX. They are seeking a city, town or college community with a strong business climate, moderate climate, affordable housing, friendly people, good healthcare and scenic beauty.

Virginia fits the term “New South” to a tee. It’s up to you to choose your choices from a great retirement buffet called Virginia.


S&P 500 EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Multiple) by Sector/Industry

The table below lists the Enterprise Multiples (EV/EBITDA) by sector. The multiples are calculated using the current and past S&P 500 companies. Comparing the current enterprise multiple of a sector/industry to its historical average value can be used to estimate if the sector is currently undervalued or overvalued. Note: The ratio is not available for the financials sector as EBITDA is not a meaningful item for financial companies.

For the latest data, check the datasets provided by Siblis Research.

S&P 500 – EV/EBITDA Multiple by GICS Sector

GICS Sector 6/30/2018 12/31/2017 6/30/2017 12/31/2016 6/30/2016 12/31/2015 6/30/2015 12/31/2014
Communications 12.07 11.46 11.16 10.57 10.23 11.61 10.48 8.96
Consumer Discretionary 14.66 14.19 13.15 11.66 11.75 12.40 12.26 11.66
Consumer Staples 13.25 13.23 13.09 13.10 13.91 12.81 12.74 12.07
Energy 12.42 12.32 14.25 35.09 33.23 13.02 7.75 6.14
Health Care 14.58 14.87 14.06 11.77 13.55 13.60 14.72 13.97
Industrials 12.76 13.07 12.38 11.35 10.74 11.23 12.52 13.45
Information Technology 13.72 13.57 12.87 12.04 10.57 10.00 9.63 10.11
Materials 12.37 14.29 12.26 13.78 14.31 12.1 11.55 10.35
Utilities 11.02 11.96 12.06 11.99 12.43 9.78 9.30 10.53

Need comprehensive data? Purchase S&P 500 GICS Sector & Industry specific EV/EBITDA multiples for the last day of each month since 3/31/1995 (including P/B, P/E & CAPE ratios since 12/31/1979) and do your own sector valuation analysis.

Purchase S&P 500 Sector/Industry Valuation Researcher Dataset by Siblis Research that provides all key valuation metrics by GICS Sector & Industry, including market caps, earnings, enterprise values, EBITDAs, free cash flows and historical GICS Sector/Industry classifications all current and past S&P 500 companies. The dataset also provides adjusted share prices (total returns) which allows you to examine the performance of the companies before/during/after a company was part of the index. Check a sample file from here.

EV/EBITDA Enterprise Multiple

It is easy to see a strong negative correlation between the average EV/EBITDA multiple of Industrials sector and the sector performance. When the multiple has been low, 3-year forward returns have been high (note that the axis of returns is flipped). The forward return means the rate of return during the period of three years from the point of investment.

How the EV/EBITDA multiple by sector is calculated?

The EBITDA multiple for a specific sector is calculated by dividing the total enterprise value of all sector companies by the total sum of annual EBITDA of the companies. The multiples on the table above are trailing twelve months, meaning the last four quarters are used when earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization are calculated.

Using EV/EBITDA to value companies

Enterprise value to EBITDA is a popular multiple that is used to measure the value of a corporation. The ratio can be seen as a capital structure-neutral alternative for Price/Earnings ratio. When valuations of different companies are compared to each other, the enterprise multiple is often considered more suitable than P/E. Using P/E ratio for comparative analysis can be misleading due to different amounts of leverage, different accounting practices related to depreciation and different tax rates.

The multiple is most commonly used to evaluate industrial and consumer industries. It is more rare to use the ratio for financial or energy companies. For oil & gas companies, there are various industry specific valuation multiples like EV to Reserves, EV to Production and EV to Capacity. Banks and insurance companies are most commonly evaluated using price-to-book ratio.

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The Chief Architect Crossover is Looking For – Exclusive Interview With Luciano Bargmann

diretorCrossover is functioning in Turkey since 12 months. In the mean time we hired 40 senior professionals and we’re moving forward. Toughness of our evaluation process was always a discussion. Crossover is applying a 3 days project assignent to it’s candidates and super picky in terms of finding top talent around the world. This is why I wanted to make an interview with Crossover’s tech evaluation head Luciano Bargmann.

Understanding of a software architect is very different in Turkey and US markets. Luciano’s going to tell us about characteristics of “the chief architect” which makes $100k a year.

1) Can you tell us about yourself a bit for our audience? Where’re you from? What were you doing before Crossover? What do you do at Crossover?
I’m Luciano Bargmann, Principal of Technical Evaluation at Crossover. I am from Brazil, and I have a deep passion for technology. Before Crossover I worked at Dell, HP as a Software Architect, CTO, IT Director and also had my own company. At Crossover I lead a team of architects that create, evaluate and interview candidates for technical positions at Crossover.

2) What’s biggest challenge of leading a tech evaluation team?
Keeping the balance between speed and quality of evaluations. Also, a fun challenge is to create new tests, with scenarios that can assess daily activities of the candidate in a real job.

3) I know that you’re currently working with huge demand on Java Chief Architect position. What does a Java Chief Architect do after getting hired via Crossover?
He is the technology reference for the team, being a technical leader and many times wearing the CTO hat for a product; He will face hands on work, within challenging projects and will review development processes to drive the team productivity up in a continuous improvement pace;

4) What’s the key difference between an Architect and a Chief Architect for Java?
An Architect is an experienced person, responsible for one small/medium software product or a large component in a large codebase and with a very deep understanding of one language such as Java. He is someone that had lots of night without sleep trying to deliver code close to a deadline. An Architect has some bruises from deployed products, such as performance issues, show-stopper bugs and system outages to name a few. The architect is also familiar with coding techniques and patterns that allow the software to be incrementally updated, where adding new features won’t cost a ton of money and will not break the entire system. The Chief Architect is all this, and his scope is all projects in the portfolio. The CA can guide several projects in parallel, by providing a technology vision to be followed. He is the cornerstone of knowledge and must take the hard decisions.

5) Can you tell us about “The Chief Architect” you’re looking for? What would you expect during test and evaluation process from a role model Chief? Any wow factors you’d like to share? Any stories?
We are looking for people that are smart and that get things done. They must be experienced and up-to-date with the latest technologies. Must have a broader hands-on knowledge on other technologies and languages, know about all aspects of software development and can select the best tool for the job, where the tool can be a framework, a database, or a front-end solution. The wow factor comes with getting things done. We are looking for people that can share a couple stories of big projects that they had a key role.

6) In terms of technical evaluation, how long does it take to be a Java CA at Crossover?
We run a series of tests and our goal is to select the best of the best, la crème de la crème. We would love to have the entire process to take just a day, but remember my challenge: balance between speed and quality. So we will require you to go through a few steps and the entire process can take for 5 to 15 days.

7) Some say expecting up-to-date hands-on coding experience from 15 years experienced SEMs and CAs isn’t fair, what do you think about this? Why does Crossover require hands-on coding experience from almost all of the technical candidates?
This is a great question. Hands-on managers and CAs are a winning strategy at Crossover and it yields great results. The reason is simple: You are running a team of top notch coders. If they ever feel that you don’t know your mojo, you will not be respected by them, and this usually leads to a project failure. Our leaders know what they are talking about and can sustain their decisions with strong technical arguments.


Casino Name
Online blackjack articles 23

The Game of Blackjack

Blackjack or twenty one is one of the most widely played games in American homes and clubs and traditionally rivals poker for popularity in the armed forces. In las vegas, Reno, and other parts of the wide open spaces. Blackjack ranks with poker, roulette and craps as one of the four standard gambling games. Of these four, however, blackjack is by far the most neglected in the scientific literature of gambling and offers a relatively unexplored area for mathematical and statistical analysis.

In should be made clear at the outset that this paper deals exclusively with the "house" game of blackjack and not the "private" game. In the house game a representative of the gambling casino is permanent dealer, and his strategy is completely fixed by known house rules. The fixed and known nature of the dealer's strategy is vital in reducing the mathematical and computational problems in analyzing blackjack to manageable proportions.

Each gambling casino has a set of blackjack rules which agree with those of other casinos on the main points but which usually differs on details. Therefore, in selecting a variation of the game of blackjack for analysis, the best that could be done was to consider rules which are common but not universal. A presentation of these rules follows.

1. Number of players - A dealer and from one to six players.

2. The pack - An ordinary 52 cards deck

3. Betting - The player makes their bets before any cards are dealt. The house establishes a minimum and a maximum bet.

4. The deal - The player and the dealer each receive two cards. Each player gets both cards face down. The dealer receives one card face up and one card face down. Cards received face down in the deal or draw are commonly known as "hole cards".

5. The numerical value of the cards - The numerical value of an ace is 1 or 11 as the player chooses, the numerical value of a face card is 10, and the numerical value of all other cards is simply their face value. The numerical value or total of a hand is the sum of the numerical values of the cards in the hand.

6. Object of the player - To obtain a total which is greater than the dealer's but does not exceed 21.

7. Naturals - An ace and a face card or ten dealt on the first two cards to either player or dealer constitutes a "natural" or "blackjack". If a player has a natural and the dealer does not, the player receives 1.5 times his original bet from the dealer. If a player does not have a natural and the dealer does, the player loses his original bet. If both player and dealer have naturals, no money changes hands.

8. The draw - A player is not required to increase the number of cards in his hand and may look at his hole cards and elect to "Stand". Otherwise, he may require that the dealer give him additional cards, face up, one at a time. If the player goes over 21 ("busts"), he immediately turns up his hole cards and pays his bet to the dealer. After each player has drawn his cards, starting with the player at the dealer's left and proceeding in a clockwise fashion, the dealer turns up his hole cards. If his total is 16 or less, he must draw a card and continue to draw cards until his total is 17 or more, at which point he must stand. If the dealer has an ace, and counting it as 11 would bring his total to 17 or more without exceeding 21, he must count the ace as 11 and stand.

9. The settlement - If the player does not go over 21 ("bust") and the dealer does, the player wins an amount equal to his original bet. If neither player nor dealer busts, the person with the higher total wins and amount equal to the player's original bet. If neither player nor dealer busts and both have the same total, no money changes hands.

10. Splitting Pairs - In the following rules a pair is defined as two cards which are identical except for suit, such as two jacks, two aces, or two tens. If the player's hole cards form a pair, he may choose to turn them face up and treat them as the initial cards in two separate "twin" hands.

This strategy is known as "splitting pairs". The original bet goes on one of the split cards, and an equal amount is bet on the other card. The player automatically receives a second card face down on each of the split cards and may continue drawing cards face up to both twin hands as long as he desires. An excepction to this rule is made in the case of split aces where the player may draw only one more card to each ace. Furthermore, if a face card or ten falls on one of the split aces, the hands is not counted as a natural but as ordinary 21. (Similarly, the player splitting a pair of face cards or tens who draws an ace holds an ordinary 21) Finally, If a player splits a pair and receives a third card of the same type, he is not permitted to undertake further splitting.

11. Doubling down - after looking at his hole cards a player may elect to double his bet and draw one and only one more card. This strategy is known as "doubling down". A player who elects to double down turns up his hole cards and receives his third card face down. A player splitting any pair except aces, after receives an additional card on each of the split cards, may elect to double down on one or both of his twin hands.


Right now.

That is all the matters.

The past is a memory.

The future is potential.

Right now.

That is all that is certain.

When you travel back in time,

or project years ahead,

all you can see and do

is create ideas and speculate.

You can only affect right now.

Right here, this moment.

Experience what is right in front of you,

don't let that chance get away.

Plan for the future, learn from the past,

but don't live life in either place,

live only in right now.

Because as you're looking all around you,

you are missing the moment to seize.

The moment, that sweet moment,

can pass you by and the value is lost.

So as you agonize over before or after,

remember, it's all about you -

Right Now.

~Copyright 2010, Mary D'Alba (Spiritualitygirl)~


Thinleaf Sunflower

Thinleaf Sunflower Plant Information

Thinleaf Sunflower grows in the following 31 states:

Connecticut, District Of Columbia, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Vermont, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Alabama, Delaware, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia

The name decapetalus means "with ten petals," referring to the 8-12 ray florets on the flower heads, resembling petals.Helianthus decapetalus, known by the common names thinleaf sunflower and thin-leaved sunflower, is a perennial forb in the sunflower family. It is native to the eastern and central United States and Canada, from New Brunswick west to Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ontario, south as far as Georgia and Louisiana. It produces yellow composite flowers in late summer or early fall.

The smooth slender stem of Helianthus decapetalus is 60 to 200 centimeters (2 to almost 7 feet) tall and branched near the top. The ovate or lanceolate leaves are borne on 2 to 5 centimeter long petioles and have serrated edges. They are 7 to 21 centimeters long and 4 to 10 centimeters wide. Helianthus decapetalus has 3 to 10 flowerheads. Each flowerhead is composed of 21 to 50 disk florets, and 8 to 12 ray florets, which are 2 to 2.5 centimeters long. The bracts are typically 11 to 16 millimeters long, surpassing the flower disk by at least half their length. The fruit are 3.5 to 5 millimeter long cypselae with a pappus of two scales.
In Virginia it grows in habitats such as floodplain forests and riverbanks. The presence of this species is dependent on appropriate habitat, and it may be eliminated from an area by development, changes in land use, or competition with invasive species.
The flowers attract many kinds of insects, including bees and butterflies, some of which, such as the Painted Lady and the Silvery Checkerspot, use the plant as a larval host. The seeds provide a source of food for birds.Muskrats eat the leaves and stems and use the stems in the construction of their lodges.

More inforamtion about Thinleaf Sunflower.


First person walk-through

I would like to enter a standard “WSAD” and “mouse looking” first person walk-though mode with face collision and “ground” detection; very similar to the current “walk” mode, but couldn’t edit anything. (‘shift’ enters a “fly” mode). I’m thinking primarily to be used for demonstrations or showing off your model.

A single click on any active components would activate the next interactive thing (like changing steve’s shirt colour)

Variable for scale & speed could be set. (Field of view as seen under the zoom tool could also be set from here.)

If sketchy-physics was part of it, then you could set it to bump/move objects as you move too.

Perhaps be able to load a model to use as your “cursor” and have a 3rd person/angel on shoulder viewpoint.

{A 3D mouse comes close to this, but I’ve not had much success with using one}

Another thought: in this mode you could “warp” to a location via r-clicking or specific key stroke when your cursor was over something.
Maybe you could also show “pins” for each scene - clicking/double clicking on them would move you to that scene.

Yet another thought: it would be nice to have a shortcut key (f something?) that would enter a this ‘presentation mode’: maximise the work area and hide all the toolbars and windows until the shortcut was activated again.

Sounds like the Desktop Viewer app. (Except that it has no Dynamic Component functionality.)

So rather than loading up the model into a new app, it would be nice to just switch to a “Working”/“Presentation” mode.

We’ve asked for this before… specifically that there be a way that a SKP file could be locked as read-only, and when loaded into SketchUp, that the app went into a read-only mode.

That would both the need for the separate viewer application, and allow the API to be loaded making DC interaction available, and also other non-edit Ruby plugins. (The Viewer does not load the Ruby API.)

I’m not too botherered about read-only; I only want to tidy the workspace for a presentation and make the presentation as smooth as possible.
(Actually I would prefer not to have it read-only - I can quicky pull walls or move objects or hide specific groups or draw lines or measure… I still want an editable model, I just want to move through it like I would in (eg) minecraft.)


Simple, yes. Easy, no.

As someone deeply entrenched in the Strengths Philosophy, I believe that everyone has something special to offer the world and a unique voice with which to express that purpose. However, we so often undervalue ourselves that it is difficult to step into our own spotlight and shine like we are meant to.

I love this quote from Marianne Williamson. In many ways it sums up what I believe:

“Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are more powerful than can be measured. It is our light, and not our darkness, that most frightens us. We ask, “Who am I to be brilliant, magnificent, talented and fabulous? Actually, the question should be: who are you not to be? It’s no use for the world to be small. It does not have anything illuminating to reduce us so that others do not feel insecure by your abilities. We are all destined to shine like children. We are born to manifest the glory that is within us. And it is not just some; But all. And when we let our light shine, almost without realizing it, we are helping others to do it too. To free ourselves from our fears, we also end up releasing those around us.”

Is it just me or does this give you goosebumps, too?

For almost three years now I’ve been running an online class called Strengths Branding. It’s a four-week class meant to help others find their unique voice and express it with confidence and conviction. As a professional, this is an extremely necessary and powerful piece for your personal brand and how to connect emotionally with your ideal client, those who need you most. As an individual, it builds a solid foundation of confidence, allowing us to no longer give power to our naysayers and boldly claim our rightful space. My formula, if you will, is appreciate, communicate, illuminate.

Strengths, Potential, Personal Branding, Strengths Branding

In order to fully step into your spotlight, you must understand your value; not only understand it but embrace it. Our talents, as defined by the Clifton StrengthsFinder, are the best way to understand ourselves quickly and profoundly. When I first discovered my talents back in 2003 it was if someone had given me a user’s manual for myself. It was my A-Ha! Now my personality made sense. I understood “why” I like talking so much with so many different people. Why my mind is filled with so many ideas. Why I’m so emotional and passionate when I speak. It was a powerful and meaningful moment for me. I believe everyone should receive this gift.

And even then, I still didn’t fully grasp my value. I understood what I loved and why I loved it more clearly, but I still didn’t recognize it as special. Teaching this Strengths Branding class has helped me do just that. Finally, just shy of 45 years old, I appreciate and have stepped into my spotlight.

Once you appreciate just how special you are, you explain it to others with clarity and confidence. StrengthsFinder not only tells you your talents, it gives you a language to embrace and draw from. Each talent has a universal understanding of “I am, I do, I value, I contribute, I need, I dislike”. Using this as a base for your communication also leads to greater understanding of others as well as higher compassion. We no longer judge others through our own filters, but through theirs.

Professionally this enhances our ability to communicate value to our clients, in our sales techniques, how we lead others. Additionally, in our personal lives, it improves relationships, inspires forgiveness around misunderstandings and grants us serenity in knowing what we are doing has purpose.

This is the ultimate gift. Once you fully value yourself and communicate your WHY in an expressive and passionate way, you have no choice but to shine. This is the light that will lead others to you. It is the light that will guide you even when times are tough. It is the light that will not dim. You have found your spotlight and you will stand out from the crowd.

When you step into your talents, your true essence is revealed. In that essence, is the revolution that ignites your evolution. It’s your A-Ha! Your compass. Your validation. And it has been in you all along.

I don’t want to just help you recognize your voice, I want you to serenade the world with your song.


Rise of the Data Product Manager

Over the next several years, there will be a new kind of product manager in demand — the data product manager. I have previously argued that good data scientists make good product managers, but this is incomplete. Data is at the core of product development; not only in the post-hoc analysis of usage metrics and A/B tests. The continual intake and exhaust of data is determining how products behave and what new classes of products are possible. Machine learning models automatically adapt products to users’ preferences, make recommendations about next actions, and suggest future features and products. Data product managers understand this and incorporate it into their products.

Working with data at the core of a product requires a level of understanding of data modeling, data infrastructure, and statistical and machine learning. It goes beyond understanding the results of experiments and reading dashboards — it requires a deep appreciation for what is possible and what will soon be possible by taking full advantage of the flow of data. If the traditional PM operates at the intersection of business, engineering, and user experience, the data PM must also have domain knowledge of data and data science.

[Insert terrible six-circle Venn diagram here that marries Drew Conway’s data science Venn diagram and the traditional PM diagram.]

The data PM understands that building products with data requires a data strategy — what is your plan for how data will be generated, collected, and consumed, and how does this uniquely position you to win in your market? It’s not enough to collect data and stash it in a data warehouse for post hoc analysis. The data PM has a plan for why the data generated by the product will be used to improve the product, algorithmically or otherwise, over time and why this creates a defensible moat to increase the product’s chances of long-term success. In other words, the data PM makes product decisions that get the flywheel moving with data.

The data PM understands the technological infrastructure involved in building products at a technical level. What kind of infrastructure is needed to support the product? Do machine learning models need to be scored in real-time or can they be prescored offline? What is the plan for retraining models on new data? How will the model’s success be evaluated over time? What is the complexity cost for implementing the model in production? Yes, data scientists will be answering these questions as well, but the data PM needs to be an active participant in these discussions as part of the inevitable tradeoffs involved in product development.

The data PM understands that collecting data and using data are two different parts of building with data with different tradeoffs and often involving different parts of the engineering team. They help drive the product development process so that the handoff between these two processes is seamless and helps both sides succeed at their jobs.

The data PM understands that machine learning is useful for a lot of problems, but knows when a heuristic model may be more appropriate. When it’s not clear, they timebox exploration to see which approach may be more useful. They also know that there may come a time when a switch from heuristic model to machine learning model will be appropriate and plan ahead for this contingency.

The data PM can perform their own analyses — they can write their own SQL, build their own dashboards, interpret their own experiments. They are skeptical of anyone who claims “the data speaks for itself” since they know this is never true. People speak for data and knowing how the analysis was conducted is just as important as having the results. Data PMs aren’t slavishly “data driven” decision-makers that blindly make calls based on single numbers. They’re appropriately skeptical producers and consumers of data.

The data PM can translate requirements between data scientists, engineers, designers, marketers, and other PMs. They build product instrumentation and data storage into their acceptance criteria while collaborating with data scientists to ensure that data will be accessible and usable for analysis and modeling as soon as possible. They don’t leave it to engineers who are not data scientists to make assumptions about what kinds of data will be valuable for data scientists.

Finally, the data PM knows that data, models, and outputs aren’t enough — they still have to be product managers and bring these components back to the business model and their organization’s strategy. Machine learning models that don’t align with the business model will not only waste time and money for no reason, they undermine an organization’s trust in machine learning. This is especially true in companies that are late to data science, have skepticism about the power of data science, or are very qualitative in their leadership.

For these reasons, I still believe that good data scientists make good product managers, but it seems clear that a new kind of product manager is just on the horizon.


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Is War Obsolete?

Mehwish Akram

The purpose of this essay is to analyze the arguments in favor and against the obsoleteness of the war particularly after the cold war. But before going in detail one needs to understand the concept of war that is advocated by the proponents of the Realist school of thought.

According to the Realists, war is essential for serving its interests as for war is mean to achieve their national interests. The institution of war has evolved with the development of state after the peace of Westphalia which gives state supreme power to exercise within its boundaries without inferring in internal matters of the other states.

Defining War

According to Clausewitz war is a continuation of politics by other means. The industrialization played a vital role in promoting war by developing new weapons and revolutionizing the institution of war. It was in eighteen century when war becomes a proper institution which is equipped with modern weapons and tactics. Alexis de Tocqueville concluded that war almost always enlarges the mind of a people and raises their character.”  Kenneth Waltz defines war as “The ultimate resort of states that can see no other way to have their interests met.” Moreover, War was used as a tool by states to expand its territory and area of influence since ancient times like Athens fight against Spartan to control them.

In the twentieth century, the fascination for war is declining especially after the experience of WWI and almost all the countries of the developed world committed to avoiding war between states. The deterrence was also used by states to prevent war by equipping them with arms to teeth to deal with the aggressive states. [1] However, this policy failed with the start of WWII but with the start of a cold war between US and USSR did bring stability by changing of international structure from multi-polarity to bi-polarity. Both powers avoided direct confrontation and the world was divided into two blocs. Kenneth Waltz declared Bi-polar system as a most stable system because both powers tried to balance each other power which reduces the chances of war.

Merits of Bi-polarity

Similarly, nuclear weapons also played a significant role in averting war as both powers acquired nuclear weapons.[2]  Kenneth Waltz called nuclear weapons as an effective tool to prevent war between US and USSR as the use of nuclear weapons after 1945 become unthinkable for any state due to its destructive ability.  According to experts, Bi-polarity proved to be a more balanced system as it would not allow one state to dominate all other states of the world. Bi-polarity created a balance between two potential powers and brings stability at international level as both were equally capable of competing with other.  Both states balanced each other power by created two blocs to check each other growing power at global level.

Arguments in favor of Obsoleteness of War

1- Economic Integration

The interdependence of economy is considered as a major development which is preventing the war, especially between states. For Instance, in the case of China and US despite their rivalry, there is less likely chance of war between both the states.  War creates instability and disrupts the economy in a negative way by causing inflation.[3]  The international economic system has increased the dependence of states irrespective of their size. The economic integration among states is not allowing them for waging war because it is not cost effective for a state. In contemporary world war is undesirable and becoming a burden on the economy of the country.

In the case of China and US relations although they are competing with each other but they would not use war as a tool to increase their influence in the global arena. Since war is not a viable option to pursue their national interests. Similarly, China is suspicious of an American presence in the Asia-Pacific region and their growing ties with its neighboring states. One cannot say that they will be involved in direct confrontation with each other. Since economic interests of the both states are inter-linked and mutually dependent upon each other. China is the biggest trading partner of US and a major importer of Chinese products.  In addition, globalization played a vital role in increasing the interdependence between the states by linking all states with the common economic system and its stability is dependent upon the cooperation among all states of the world. Globalization has transformed the world into the global village by inter-linking world trade.

2- Role of international organization

The role of the international organization is significant in preventing war between states by including all states into organizations to resolve their issues by using the dialogue process and building the mutual consent of all the states of the world. International organization provides a platform to resolve the contentious issues by negotiation rather going for war as a mean to sort out their conflictual issues between the states. Moreover, legislation of international organization is very effective in averting war between states as they punished those who are involved in crimes against humanity in the form of ethnic cleansing and genocide in Rwanda and Yugoslavia.

Furthermore, international organizations are effective in ending conflicts between the states by providing a platform and giving importance to objections of the both parties. International organizations play a mediating role to resolve issues between states by hearing both parties and suggesting ways to sort the contentious issues between any two or more states. In addition, regional organizations have improved the regional integration by dealing the regional problems with regional players. For example, European Union is the most successful organization which has united Europe by resolving their issues internally and consider as a most stable region of the world. The European Union is an effective regional organization which makes it most peaceful part of the world as they sort their issues by discussing with each other.

3- Cost of WAR

The cost of war outweighs its benefits for the state as it long-lasting effects on its people. The advancement in modern weapons has increased the destructive abilities of war by causing infrastructure losses for the state.[4]  In contemporary world states prefer to avoid war due its interdependence on other states for trade and for proper functioning relations with its neighbors. Similarly, the human cost of war is another factor which is becoming a reason for preventing wars between the states. The use of chemical and biological weapons in modern warfare has increased the number of deaths of humans within the second that is mostly avoided by the countries.

Moreover, the signing of treaties by almost all states of the world to limit the number of conflicts is another factor to discourage countries from using force against any other country. In addition, war drains the economy of a country and creates dissatisfaction at the domestic level. For example, during the Vietnam War US had to stop war due to protests within the country against War due to its effects on their domestic economy. The economic cost of wars in the contemporary world has played a major role in preventing a war between the states. War is not considered as the viable option for states to pursue their national interests.

4-Use of non-military means

 The use of non-military means by the states is another major reason towards decline war in 21 century. The states tend to use other means for instance; cyber warfare is widely used by China and US to keep a check on their growing power.[5]  The countries in contemporary world avoid using force against other states because it is not cost effective for them.  Cyber warfare is not only cost effective for states but also a viable option to pursue their interests without heavy spending on its defence. Moreover, cyber warfare would cause more damage to the rival states without indulging in direct confrontation with the other states.

The hacking incidents in the past few years have increased and hackers usually hacked national websites to the country to get access to countries confidential documents and their assets to expose the ability of the state. Cyber warfare is cost effective mean used by countries to subdue their rival states.  The modern technological advancement has increased the role of cyber warfare as all systems of the world are dependent on the digital means. Moreover, computer viruses are also used by almost all states to destroy the confidential projects of their rival states without much effort and violating international laws against the use of force at the global level.

5- Nuclear weapons

Nuclear weapons have also played a significant role in preventing war between states because of its destructive nature and long-lasting effects on the humans and living beings.[6]  Nuclear weapons are considered as psychological weapons or political weapons that act as a deterrent to prevent war between the two or more states.  The development of nuclear technological has changed the nature warfare to a greater extent by reducing chances of War Between the States. During cold war nuclear weapons prevented the direct confrontation between US and USSR. The use of nuclear weapons by either by US or USSR would ensure mutual destruction of both the states.

The use of nuclear weapons is not an acceptable norm at international due to destructive ability to destroy humans indiscriminately. It is considered as taboo by responsible states and international community because of its negative repercussions on the humanity. They are used prevent War among the States. International norms against the use of nuclear weapons have played the significant role in avoiding conflict between the states and acts as a deterrent to states.

Counter Arguments

According to some experts, war is not obsolete in the contemporary world rather it has transformed the old warfare. The institution war has become more organized and lethal. The modern technology has revolutionized the nature warfare by equipping states with modern weapons. The decline of war as an institution is not easy to achieve with growing insecurities of the states.  States are facing security dilemma and in order to compete with other states every state is increasing their defense budget to ensure their security.  Similarly, change in international structure from Uni-polarity to Multi-polarity is another reason why states are investing more to improve their military capacity to compete for more than one power at international level.

Moreover, experts are of the view that nuclear weapons are not preventing war instead they are increasing the military disparities between the states. The countries who acquire nuclear weapons after the 1950s are competing with P-5 by developing Tactical Nuclear weapons. They are also known as mini-nukes basically these low-intensity nuclear weapons which are increasing chances of war among the states.  The accidental use of tactical weapons can start a war due to growing distrust among major countries of the world. For example, in a case of India and Pakistan, accidental use of tactical nuclear weapons can initiate a war between these two states.

Comparative Analysis

If we analyzed arguments in favor of the obsoleteness of war are based on logical argumentation and empirical evidence. It would be plausible to say that institution of war is facing a decline due to growing awareness among general public and policy makers. War is not cost-effective and becoming a burden on economies of the countries. Similarly, modern weapon technologies have increased the defence budget rather spending this money to eradicate poverty and violence in the world. Moreover, development of nuclear weapons is also contributed in preventing war because the use of nuclear weapons can kill thousands of people within seconds especially after witnessing the example of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.

Despite differences among states they give importance to the process of dialogue to resolve their conflictual issues rather than going for war. The cost of war out weights the benefits of war if we assess the implications of war for humans it would be safe to claim that war cause more problems for people who have to face the consequences of war in the form of loss of their lives and displacement from their respective countries to neighboring areas. It would be plausible say that war between states is obsolete if not within the states. The conflicts within the countries are there but it can be addressed by using dialogue process and giving autonomy to minority groups in the countries.

If we compare and contrast arguments in favor and against of war one can say that war is considered as the only option for states in resolving their issues with other states. The institution of war is facing decline after the conclusion of the two World Wars. War is not used by states to protect their national interests due to its heavy cost in the form of both human and material cost of the war. Globalization has also played significant role limiting the role of War at international level by promoting interdependence among all states of the world. Furthermore, war itself causes more problems rather than resolving contentious issues between the countries.

The increasing economic interdependence among states has decreased chances of war as their economic interests are interlinked. War is expensive for any state since it requires not only man-power but also the economic power to sustain the war for a long time.  The countries having viable economies if they start a war consequently it will drain their economy and create issues within their states.  The economic integration of regions has paved the way in preventing war between states by bringing stability and prosperity to all states irrespective of their relative power capabilities.

Theoretical Framework

Social constructivism theory is presented by Nicholas Onuf, Alexander Wendt, Emanuel Adler, Friedrich Kratochwil, John Gerard Ruggie and Peter Katzenstein.[7]  According to proponents of the social constructivism international structure is socially constructed with interactions of human with each other. States objective goals in the form of security and economic development and subjective goals their international standing are created by their interactions with other actors of the world. States identities and interests are constructed from inter-subjective social structures because global actors interact with each other to formulate their interests by comparing them with other states.  The identities and interests of actors are socially constructed by their interaction with each other.

According to constructivists anarchy is not given rather it is socially constructed with interactions of global actors. If all states are interacting in a peaceful manner then it is peaceful and if the country suspects each other intentions then it is conflictual in nature. In simple words, it depends on upon the interactions of the global actors with each other.  Constructivist negates realist assumption about anarchy that it is given.  It is constructed by an interaction of global actors and it changes the behavior of global actors. The interest of the states keeps on changing with a change in international structure as they are stagnant or permanent.

The international system is not given or present like the solar system. It is constituted by inter-subjective interaction among the people. The international system is constructed with the ideas that are not based on the objective reality. Social Constructivism is based upon the set of ideas, norms of people living in a particular area. According to the constructivists understanding the meanings of ideas and concepts is significant because it is based on interactions human with other by comparing them with each other.

In the case of relations with China and US one can say they experienced ups and downs with the changing nature of their national interests. [8]  During the 1950s, the relations between both the states were conflictual in nature due to American involvement in Korean Peninsula and their support for Nationalist Taiwan.[9]  In the 1970s during Nixon Presidency, US tried to normalize their relations by visiting China and accepted People Republic China (PRC) legitimacy using Ping Pong by sending their table tennis team to China. The shift in relations occurred due to changing nature of their national interest and abandons the Nationalists of Taiwan.  The US normalized their relations with China to curtail the Russian expansion in the region and increase American area of influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

If we analyzed the relations of the both countries using the Social Constructivists lens one can say China and US have experienced a period of strained relations and normal relations depending upon the nature of interests that are changing with a shift in the international system. It is either peaceful or conflictual in nature. Moreover, in recent past, the increased in economic interdependence has improved their relations with each other due to dependence upon each other for achieving their economic interests. Similarly, China and the USA are competing with other economically due to growing Chinese economy and rise as a major player at international level. China and USA are suspected of each other activities particularly in the Asia-Pacific region due to growing Chinese influence in the region.

The relations between China and US are largely driven by their distinct ideologies and identities.  The foreign policy of both of these countries is dependent on their identities which are different from each other. The understanding of their respective identities is essential for making sense of their posture towards each other. States acts according to national interests that are based on their identities.  According to Social Constructivism understanding of identities is required to analyze the relations between two states in detail. The role of identities is significant is determining the major policy decisions that are largely dependent upon the ideational factors of the state.

In the context of China and US, the role of the identity cannot be undermined because both give importance to their identities in their relations with each other.  The in-depth understanding of the foreign policies of China and US is largely based on their distinct identities. The nature of the relationship between China and US is very complex due to the vital role of their respective identities in their major policy decisions towards each other. China gives importance to its identity in the conduct of their relations with US and rest of the world. In the same way, the US also promotes democracy at the international level that signifies the role of identity in their foreign policy.

To conclude, war is obsolete particularly between the states in the contemporary as no major war is fought between states. The institution war is facing a decline due to its heavy cost paid the people. The countries prefer to use non-military means to increase their sphere of influence rather using force to get their interests. The phenomena of war are not fascinating for young people anymore as it used to be in past. The repercussions of war have far-reaching effects on the humans by disturbing them emotionally and mentally. Moreover, nuclear, biological and chemical weapons are another factor which is vital for averting war among the states due to its implications for humans. The countries at international level do not promote war to solve their conflictual issues with each other. The international organizations are effective in ending the war between states by promoting peace and stability. Similarly, the role of effective civil society and epistemic communities cannot be undermined in preventing war at a global level.  The epistemic community has played a vital role in stigmatizing the use of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

Lastly, war  is not considered by states as an only option to pursue their national interests as it used to be in the 17th and 18th century. Realist school of thought promoted war as tool or Lastly, no doubt war is not considered by states as an only option to pursue their national interests as it used to be in the 17th and 18th century.  Realist school of thought promoted war as a tool or mean by states to achieve their national interests. In 21 century the role war is not vital due to increasing in economic interdependence between the states. The economic integration at the regional level is important in ending major conflicts among states of the particular region. War as an institution is not effective at international due to a shift of countries towards non-military means to subdue their rivals rather than indulging them in war or military confrontation with each other.

 [1]Hans G. Brauch, “The Three Worldviews of Hobbes, Grotius and Kant Foundations of modern thinking on peace and security Contextual Change and Reconceptualisation of Security,” AFES-PRESS, accessed June 5, 2016,

[2]Sherpa Subirana, “Is War Becoming Obsolete in International Affairs? Discuss with Reference to the Academic Debate on the Issue. | Lobsang Dundup Sherpa Subirana –,” – Share Research, accessed June 5, 2016,

[3]John Mueller, “IS WAR STILL BECOMING OBSOLETE?,” Political Science | OSU, last modified August 3, 2012,

[4]Rosella Cappella, “Confronting the Cost of War: The Political Economy of War Finance | Center for Finance, Law & Policy,” Boston University, accessed June 5, 2016,

[5]Terry L. Deibel, “Foreign Affairs Strategy – Cambridge University Press,” Home | Cambridge University Press, accessed June 5, 2016,

[6]Kenneth Waltz, “Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Better, Adelphi Papers, Number 171 (London: International Institute F,” Mount Holyoke College, last modified 1981,

[7]Roya J. Amineh and Hanieh D. Asl, “Review of Constructivism and Social Constructivism,” Journal of Social Sciences, Literature and Languages 1, no. 1 (April 2015): xx, Available online at

[8]Hui Wang, “U.S.-CHINA: BONDS AND TENSIONS,” RAND Corporation Provides Objective Research Services and Public Policy Analysis | RAND, accessed June 5, 2016,

[9]Yan Xuetong, “The Instability of China-US Relations,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 3, no. 3 (2010): xx, doi:10.1093/cjip/poq009.

Mehwish Akram holds masters degree in International Relations and currently doing M Phil in Political Science. Her areas of interest are Democracy, Political theory and Environmental politics .

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Sleepwalking Toward Nuclear War

Igor Ivanov

Authors: Des Browne, Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor S. Ivanov, Sam Nunn

This weekend marks the 100th anniversary of the end of the First World War, one of the world’s most horrific conflicts.  One of the best accounts of how this tragedy began, by the historian Christopher Clark, details how a group of well-meaning European leaders—“The Sleepwalkers”—led their nations into a war with 40 million military and civilian casualties. Today, we face similar risks of mutual misunderstandings and unintended signals, compounded by the potential for the use of nuclear weapons—where millions could be killed in minutes rather than over four years of protracted trench warfare. Do we have the tools to prevent an incident turning into unimaginable catastrophe?

For those gripped with complacency, consider this scenario. It is 2019. Russia is conducting a large military exercise in its territory bordering NATO. A NATO observer aircraft accidentally approaches Russian airspace, and is shot down by a Russian surface to air missile. Alarmed, NATO begins to mobilize reinforcements. There is concern on both sides over recent nuclear deployments in the wake of the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Suddenly, both NATO and Russia issue ultimatums—each noting their respective nuclear capabilities and willingness to use them if vital interests are threatened. Europe is edging towards a conventional conflict, and the risk of escalation to nuclear use is very real.

Each of the strands in this hypothetical scenario is visible in the wind today, exacerbated by new threats—such as cyber risks to early warning and command and control systems, which can emerge at any point in a crisis and trigger misunderstandings and unintended signals that could accelerate nations toward war. This is all happening against a backdrop of unease and uncertainty in much of the Euro-Atlantic region resulting from the Ukraine crisis, Syria, migration, Brexit, new technologies, and new and untested leaders now emerging in many Euro-Atlantic states.

What can be done to stop this drift toward madness?

When leaders from across Europe meet in Paris on 11 November to mark the 100th anniversary of the conclusion of World War I, those with nuclear weapons—President Donald Trump, President Vladimir Putin, President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Theresa May—should reinforce the principle that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.  This principle, articulated at the height of the Cold War by the presidents of the United States and Russia, was embraced then by all European countries. It would communicate that leaders today recognize their responsibility to work together to prevent nuclear catastrophe and provide a foundation for other practical steps to reduce the risk of nuclear use—including resolving the current problems with INF and extending the New START Treaty through 2026.

There remains the challenge of rebuilding trust between the United States, NATO and Russia so that it will again be possible to address major security challenges in the Euro-Atlantic region. This was done throughout the Cold War and must again be done today. This process could begin with a direction by leaders to their respective governments to renew a mutually beneficial dialogue on crisis management, especially in absence of trust.

Crisis management dialogue was an essential tool throughout the Cold War—used for managing the “day-to-day” of potentially dangerous military activities, not for sending political signals. Leaders should not deprive themselves of this essential tool today. Used properly, crisis management can be instrumental in avoiding a crisis ever reaching the point where military forces clash inadvertently or where the use of nuclear weapons needs to be signaled, let alone considered, by leaders with perhaps only minutes to make such a fateful choice.

In reviewing the run up to past wars, there is one common denominator: those involved in the decision making have looked back and wondered how it could have happened, and happened so quickly? In Paris next week, 100 years after the guns across Europe fell silent, leaders can begin taking important steps to ensure a new and devastating war will not happen today.

Des Browne, a former British defense secretary, is Vice Chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and Chair of the European Leadership Network.

Igor S. Ivanov, former Russian Foreign Minister and Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation from 2004 to 2007, is President of the Russian International Affairs Council.

Sam Nunn, a former Democratic US senator, is Co-Chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

First published in our partner RIAC

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S-400: A Game Changer in South Asia

India and Russia have signed a US$5b deal, under which India will receive S-400 air defence missile system – that is poised to be game changer in South Asian strategic environment.

The Russians have definitely made a breakthrough with sales of weapons to some NATO countries with uncertain futures in the bloc (e.g. Greece, Turkey) and strong US client countries such as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states such as the UAE. India’s procurement of five S-400 regiments that is expected to be completed in 2020 is something that is giving a new dynamics to the issue.

The main usage of S-400 long-range missile is against stand-off systems including flying command posts and aircraft such as the E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS). These aircraft, which are used by the US and its NATO allies with a squadron stationed in Japan at Kadena Air Force Base and in the UAE at al-Dhafra, are vulnerable to S-400 interceptors and lose their stand-off range protection.

The S-400 missile system is a state-of-the-art air defence and anti ballistic missile platform with a maximum range of 400km against aircraft while reportedly can engage ballistic missiles at 40km range. It is considered one of the best defense systems in existence. Russian-made Almaz-Antei S-400 Triumf air defense systems (NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler) are expected to be fully integrated with the Indian Air Force’s IACCS (integrated air command and control system). The IACCS is an automated command and control system for air defense, which integrates the service’s air and ground-based air sensors and weapons systems.

The S-400 Triumph missile defense system is a significant strategic upgrade in India’s military hardware and in its pursuit to become a global power. The development is particularly worrisome for Pakistan.  The system if deployed along Pakistan border will provide India an edge of 600kms radar coverage with option of shooting down incoming aircraft from 400kms from its territory.

However, India’s purchase of S-400s and its option to acquire upgraded US Patriot systems remains on the table as well. This extensive arms shopping spree by Indian side includes C-17 Globemaster and C-130J transport aircraft, P-8(I) maritime reconnaissance aircraft, M777 lightweight howitzers, Harpoon missiles, and Apache and Chinook helicopters. The US will likely accept India’s request for Sea Guardian drones, and American manufacturers including Lockheed Martin and Boeing are contenders for mega arms deals with India. This (S-400) will further destabilize strategic stability in South Asia, besides leading to a renewed arms race which is disadvantageous for the peace of entire region.

The Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) law tries to push back against Russia’s malign activity around the world.

“We urge all of our allies and partners to forgo transactions with Russia that would trigger sanctions under CAATSA,” a State Department Spokesperson said

When asked about India’s plan to purchase multi-billion S-400 missile defense system from Russia.

“The Administration has indicated that a focus area for the implementation of CAATSA Section 231 is new or qualitative upgrades in capability – including the S-400 air and missile defense system,” the spokesperson said.

Islamabad has from decades faced various stringent sanctions and severe political pressure from Washington. This all is evident from opposition over transfer of any sophisticated arms including the F-16s falcons.

The silence over such issue by Washington seems to be a part of its ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy, considering China as the next global adversary. Washington is in a difficult position where it is seeking to bolster ties with India to counter China’s growing assertiveness while maintaining pressure on Russia. Whereas, China may not fret over the S-400 system deal provided to India but it will have implications for Pakistan’s Air Force and missile program both.

Finally, it cannot be underestimated that most of Indian defense system is Pakistan centric. As far conventional weapons are concerned, the balance has always been in India’s favor, because of India’s better and larger economy. Therefore, Pakistan is concerned about this deal keeping in mind that it disrupts the equation of conventional weapons that exist in this region.

The induction of S-400 might lower the nuclear threshold to a new level that is already precarious with the waivers and blessings by big powers to India. These moves have the capacity to lead the region in a spiraling arms race which can bring about an increase in instability through the escalation of an already dangerous arms buildup in the region.

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Revisiting the No First Use Policy of India Vis-À-Vis India’s Nuclear Doctrine

The object of deterrence is to persuade an adversary that the costs to him of seeking a military solution to his political problems will far outweigh the benefits. The object of reassurance is to persuade one’s own people, and those of one’s allies, that the benefits of military action, or preparation for it, will outweigh the costs.The object of reassurance is to persuade one’s own people, and those of one’s allies, that the benefits of military action, or preparation for it, will outweigh the costs.- Michael Howard

India’s new political discourse on revisiting its nuclear doctrine has once again attracted transnational debate on the efficacy of no first use policies, despite the fact that India has repeatedly recapitulated that it is amenable to negotiate no first use treaties bilaterally or multilaterally with all nuclear weapons states including China and Pakistan. Foreign policy and strategic affairs are developed on the basis of a country’s long-term national interests and soft-power and take into consideration both internal diaspora and external factors. The foreign policy of a country does not change when governments change, but the foreign diplomacy and strategic priorities undergo changes. The Narendra Modi government has so far not suggested any change in the nuclear doctrine or the No First Use (NFU) policy on which India’s declaratory nuclear doctrine is based, but the BJP’s election manifesto promised to “study in detail India’s nuclear doctrine, and revise and update it, to make it relevant to challenges of current times.” The debate was further fuelled when former Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar questioned NFU policy reckoning national responsibility and political independence. Former Commander-in-Chief of Indian Strategic Forces, Lt-Gen BS Nagal, questioned NFU doctrine by posting whether it was viable for India’s political leadership to accept huge casualties by subduing its hand, realising that Pakistan was about to use nuclear weapons.

The Donald Trump administration’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review embellishes the range of significant non-nuclear strategic scenarios in which the United States may scrutinize nuclear weapons use. After the recent visit of Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan to China last week, China appreciated steps taken by Pakistan in strengthening the global non-proliferation regime.  The joint statement issued;“In this context, China supports Pakistan’s engagement with the Nuclear Suppliers Group and welcomes its adherence of Nuclear Suppliers (NSG) Group Guidelines,” while Beijing’s political clout continues to barricade India’s bid in becoming a member of the NSG, the 48-member crème da la crème league, which administers global nuclear trade. The Indian nuclear doctrine was articulated in 1999 and looking at the current geopolitical developments across the world especially the growing friendship of our neighbours, it is high time to review it.  The main features of India’s nuclear doctrine as summarized by Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting in January 2003, held over four and a half years after the May 1998 tests are:(i)Establishing and maintaining a credible minimum deterrent; (ii) A “No First Use” policy, i.e. nuclear weapons to be used only “in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere”; (iii)Nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be “massive” and designed to inflict “unacceptable damage” and such a nuclear retaliatory attack can be authorized only by civilian political leadership through the Nuclear Command Authority; (iv) No use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states; (v) India to retain recourse of retaliating with nuclear weapons in the event of a major attack against it with biological or chemical weapons; (vi) Continuance of strict restrictions on the export of nuclear and missile-related materials and technologies, participation in FMCT negotiations, continued moratorium on testing; and (vii) Take measures for establishing a nuclear weapon free world, through global, verifiable and non-discriminatory disarmament.

It is a common misconception that the locution ‘No first use’ is China’s contribution to international peace and stability. In actuality, the no first use formulation dates back to circa 1925 when the international community concluded a no first use treaty on chemical weapons and toxins in the Geneva Protocol. India’s not so detailed nuclear doctrine based on the concept of NFU is ambiguously strengthen by a policy of assured massive retaliation. The intent of the active retaliatory provision is to convince warmongers that, any threat or use of nuclear weapons against India shall involve measures to counter the threat, and any nuclear attack on India and its forces anywhere shall result in massive retaliation, inflicting damage to the adversary. It means that if anyone dared use nuclear weapons against India, the nation would confidently retaliate and inflict unacceptable damage on the initiator. This is India’s doctrine of credible deterrence. Picking up from this interpretation, it is clear that the Indian doctrine is hinged on the concept of deterrence by denial and not by punishment. This diplomacy is intended to put the adversary on notice that the use of nuclear weapons will imply massive retaliation. The nature of retaliation and the parameter to judge massiveness is still vague, while a policy of assured retaliation, combined with a small nuclear force built on the principle of sufficiency, could overall be characterised as minimum deterrence. China backed Pakistani government officials and diplomats have been explicitly critical of India’s no first use doctrine on the grounds that it is only a declaratory policy and can be easily amended when the necessity arises.

The nuclear doctrine of a country decides a country’s nuclear force structure, command and control system, alert status and its deployment posture. The prerequisites of the First use doctrine are hair-trigger alerts, launch-on-warning and launch-through-attack strategies and elaborate surveillance, early warning and intelligence systems with nuclear warheads loaded on launchers and ready to fire. Jaswant Singh in ‘Against Nuclear Apartheid,’Foreign Affairs, vol. 77, no. 5, September/October 1998has written, “No other country has debated so meticulously and, at times, sinuously over the chasm between its sovereign security needs and global disarmament instincts, between a moralistic approach and a realistic one, and between a covert nuclear policy and an overtone.” What our neighbours often deliberately ignore, is that India has at multiple times offered to negotiate a mutual no first use treaty with Pakistan that would be binding and verifiable. India has a very clean record of adherence to international norms. Unfortunately, a paradoxical approach has been followed by India’s principal opponents, who have violated numerous treaties with impunity, including the NPT and the MTCR. Nuclear weapons are now becoming a mere political weapon rather than weapons of ‘warfighting’. India’s nuclear doctrine is foundationally drafted based on the concept of minimum deterrence, which means that the policy and strategy would be driven by the minimalist principle.  The concept of minimum deterrence is not completely a doctrine but is a nuclear force structure. The Indian doctrine can be interpreted to be framed on ‘assured retaliation’ and this is to be implemented by a minimalist nuclear force as an assured retaliation force structure is postulated on the dogma that no one will start a nuclear tussle if the adversaries are assertive of a nuclear retaliation.

In the book Dragon on our Doorstep: Managing China through Military power’, authors Pravin Sawhney and Ghazala Wahab argued, “Let alone China, India cannot even win a war against Pakistan. And this has nothing to do with the possession of nuclear weapons- the roles of nuclear and conventional weapons are separate in the war planning of India, China and Pakistan. The reason India would be at a disadvantage in a war with Pakistan is that while Pakistan has built military power, India focussed on building the military force. In this difference lies the capability to win wars.” Nonetheless, there lies an undeniable connection between nation’s conventional military capabilities and its dominance over other nations. A nuclear-armed nation with low military capability as compared to its adversaries may find it absolutely necessary to espouse an in extremis first use strategy to impede a conventional military strategy that may threaten to undermine its territorial integrity. This in nutshell is the nuclear dilemma of Pakistan. This may be one of the reasons why Pakistan does not accept India’s offer of a bilateral no first use treaty as a nuclear confidence building and risk reduction measure. On the other hand, India’s existing defence machinery due to low investment is becoming outdated, as China is rapidly reindustrialising its armed forces, raising deployment units and improving the logistics infrastructure in Tibet with a subtle intransigence in resolving the outstanding territorial and boundary dispute with India.

Former National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon in his book Choices argued, “There is a potential grey area as to when India would use nuclear weapons first against NWS. Circumstances are conceivable in which India might find it useful to strike first, for instance, against an NWS that had declared it would certainly use its weapons, and if India were certain that adversary’s launch was imminent.” Many analysts have argued that India has gained nothing and has unnecessarily elected to bear the horrendous costs of a nuclear strike by choosing to adopt a purely retaliatory nuclear policy. India’s tempestuous relationship with its neighbours, changing paradigm of Indian Ocean diplomacy and its desire to be a global power is shaping the framework of its nuclear weapons programme and policy. In order to engage global nuclear powers in a productive positive dialogue, there has to be a special diplomatic effort from the Ministry of External Affairs to strengthen its position as a responsible partner in the nuclear stability dialogue.The domain of Nuclear security has always been the prerogative of the Prime Minister Office, and it is the right time for India to revisit the existing framework and articulate and advocate for an international consensus to draft a new policy taking into account the geopolitical changes in South Asia.

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Mazda has provided further details about its roadmap during a technology briefing recently, where it touched upon topics relating to its ‘Sustainable Zoom-Zoom 2030’ long-term vision. This includes the return of the rotary engine as a range extender for electric vehicles (which it calls xEV), among other things.

As a brief recap, the Japanese automaker has already spoken at length about some of the new technologies on its way, including the SkyActiv-X compression ignition engine, SkyActiv-Vehicle Architecture and the second stage of its Kodo design philosophy.

The company is aiming to reduce carbon emissions from its vehicles by as much as 50% from 2010 levels by the year 2030, and 90% by 2050. Even so, the company doesn’t believe that the internal combustion engine (ICE) will go away anytime soon, hence it is not budging from its goal to perfect it further. This includes participating in the research of algae biofuel with academics and the Tokyo Institute of Technology.

Following the commercialisation of the SkyActiv-X engine, all new Mazda cars will feature some form of electrification, with 95% of them being hybrid models, while the remaining 5% are pure electric vehicles (EVs). Such a move is necessary in markets such as the United States, Europe and China, where stricter emissions regulations are gradually coming into effect.

Mazda says its EV will be developed fully in-house following three important concepts, with the first being the “joy of driving.” We’ve heard plenty of the company’s ‘Jinba-Ittai’ philosophy and it intends to realise a feeling of unity between its battery-powered EVs and the driver.

One way to do so is by adapting its G-Vectoring Control (GVC) technology to its EVs. In cars powered by an ICE, GVC control vehicle behaviour by reducing engine torque slightly but for EVs, the system controls the regeneration braking system as well. The EVs will also receive the brand’s latest GVC Plus torque vectoring by brake technology that is found in the latest CX-5.

Moving on to the major talking point, the rotary engine. We’ve already been told the rotary will be used as a range extender, but why? As Mazda explains, the revolving motion of the rotor allows the engine to be integrated with an electric motor which has a similar rotational structure. This makes for a more compact and lightweight unit compared to using a reciprocating engine, allowing for more freedom in designing the motor room layout

Furthermore, rotary engines do not have an engine valve system, is well balanced, offers smooth combustion and has a simple structure. These characteristics result in low vibrations and noises generated across frequencies in terms of in-car NVH.

According to Mazda, the rotary engine will form the base of its xEVs, and with different combinations of generators, batteries and fuel tank sizes, enables the company to offer different types of xEVs (series hybrid, plug-in hybrid and range-extender hybrids) using the same vehicle packaging.

This flexibility allows different degrees of electrification to be introduced depending on the energy mix of each region. For instance, countries that generate their electricity from clean energy sources but lack charging infrastructure would find it beneficial to get a range extender option. Meanwhile, countries that rely on thermal plants would find plug-in hybrids and series hybrids as more advantageous in terms of reducing CO2 emissions on a well-to-wheel basis.

Mazda also claims its rotary engine is compatible with a diverse range of fuels, including liquified petroleum gas (LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG) and even hydrogen, further widening its application. The company says that its rotary-equipped EV will be able to function as a generator during emergency situations, powered by easy-to-find LPG.

On the topic of connectivity, future vehicles will offer smartphone-like digital conveniences that are backed by telematics services and on-board communication devices that leverage on its alliance with Toyota.

As for when we will see these technologies, Mazda says it has already begun work on its EV, with first test drives slated for next year ahead of a target market launch around 2020. The more interesting mention is the “leadoff batter” in its next-generation line-up, which will be a model that incorporates some of the technology mentioned. Previous reports hint at the model being the all-new Mazda 3, but we will only find out more during the Los Angeles Auto Show in November.


Too Perfect: A Look at Social Narcissism

Narcissism is a staple of our modern world. Whether it’s social media posts that garner a swarm of likes or hearts, fixing up a face or wardrobe on order to look extraordinary enough to stand out of a crowd, or simply being too overly concerned with oneself and their outward appearance, many individuals find themselves caught up in the individualism of the era. In a peculiar sense, even the mildest practice has seemingly become a sort of survival mechanism for mankind–as a social species, narcissism plays upon mankind’s need for social interaction to exploit its desire for peer approval and constant positive feedback. Conversely, the more one focuses on their outward self, the more disconnected and numb they become towards other people and general empathy–displayed with the passive “Thoughts and Prayers”–until, just like the term’s namesake, the individual ends up withering away to the view of their own image (more on that later). Understanding the role of narcissism or self-care in all its variations is paramount in both trying to achieve progress in society and looking for ways to close whatever gaps between the self and others have been created as a result of this individualism.

On the one hand, this belief can be whittled down to a basic survival instinct–to illustrate, most of us know what it’s like to live mainly on ramen or PB&J’s, and so we do everything that we see is in our own best interest to avoid that particular starvation. To a lesser extent, this could also be applied to how one presents themselves to the general public (online or in real life), because, again, that sense of wanting to fit in or find acceptance from another drives one to find a support group so that they have a source to turn to in time of crisis.  Now, in terms of online use, I myself am a social media fiend, as I particularly enjoy posting various things on the medium, and of that I am guilty. And there are a lot of fun and exciting things to find on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and all other platforms. And there are people who have found it to be a great way to connect with others, so there are some positive to it. However, having found myself at times getting invested too much into the medium or being at the receiving end of someone’s mercy both on and offline, I think it’s important to be aware of what this medium is capable of in the context of the world which we inhabit.

On the other hand, however, the enabling of modern society towards acting on individualistic, self-centered tendencies has been shown to drive individuals toward an image that, previously, was mainly if not only seen in the likes of fictional characters (namely, Gordon Gekko, Hannibal Lector, or South Park’s Eric Cartman if you’re more of a comedy type). In a sense, these people take the narcissistic traits associated with copious social media and fashion trend use to a whole new level offline.

Instead of just posting random stuff on Twitter or Facebook, other people can be used if the individual feels that their presence acts as an extension of their own perceived glory. The narcissist can perceive that the great and mighty achievements of someone can directly reflect back on themselves, should that person possess the desired characteristics, and continue to exploit that person for their own personal gain or desire to “feel good.” I like to believe that this is akin to a child doing something just so they can get a “lollipop,” and personally dub it a Lollipop Effect.

Of course, with narcissism, if the narcissist (let’s call them “X”) views themselves as perfect or nearly flawless, then these perceived “extensions” of themselves (let’s call them “Y”) must also be perfect or exhibit good or outstanding traits. Because, should someone point out any glaring grievances or shortcomings, especially if it’s Y, then X will resort to dumping their problems on Y and making it seem as though Y is the one with the issues; some will know this as “gas lighting.” X will also put down Y’s achievements in order to make their own achievement’s look better in comparison. Feeling entitled to only the greatest glory, X will even get rid of the old Y and replace them with a new Y, or someone who will comply with their superiority.And it can happen on Facebook just as much as it can happen in a real life situation.

All of this is an example of one’s “survival method” taken to a horrible extreme, and the treatment off the proverbial “Y” in this instance can be interpreted in terms of potential dehumanization. X was using Y to further their own benefit, just like how many teenage girls use Instagram to further other’s perceptions of their own beauty. When X is happy with all that’s going on, then Y can be happy to; when it hits the fan and X gets angry and wrecks havoc, then Y is saddled with the imperfection and has to take full responsibility for the calamity, especially if they want X to treat them well.And so, a sense of hopelessness and depression on part of Y ensues.

Similarly, just as one ditches a fashion piece perceived to be “tacky” (chokers and socks with sandals seem to be popularly loathed), Narcissist Supreme can rid themselves of good ol’ Johnny Tallahassee if they feel that the latter is non-beneficial to their godlike status. This is made even worse if X makes it seem that Y is totally dependent on them, making it appear that Y’s reliance on X is their only method of survival–therefore, opening the door for X to do whatever they please with Y. The longer this occurs, the less Y feels like themselves or human to begin with, and the more that they feel as an extension of X.

Keeping this in mind when looking at the greater social landscape, it doesn’t come as a surprise that collective narcissism seems to be on the rise. It isn’t just popular to post selfies like there’s no tomorrow, but the widespread practice of such and how it yields a large collective response has snowballed into more individuals doing similar acts and, eventually, reaching a stage where empathy and concern for the well-being of others is almost nonexistent. People use each other to further an agenda moreso than ever before, and, if they’re not already withering away like Narcissus in front of his own reflection, they’re damning themselves by believing that their only source for survival is with Narcissus, just like those who died believing that they could not measure to his perceived glory.

Such a belief that one is above all others is reflected in our politics (particularly with treatment towards those of opposing ideals), our religious practices, and our apathetic attitude towards the educational system (be it a decline in academic performance or the apathy towards someone brandishing a weapon at children). And, the more focus is placed on individualism, the less likely it is for one to be able to actively survive, or at least in a way that allows them to be somewhat empathetic.

Progress will only happen for the individual or the social group if a rejection of modern individualism is acted upon. Regardless of whether one is the victim or the instigator in a narcissistic scenario, awareness of the problem and looking for ways to be more open or empathetic with others is the more sound solution to addressing those issues that plague us today.

Feeling Thoughtful

Not every day is going to be bright and cheerful, and there are no promises that the next day will be as such either. It’s knowing how to personally get through the struggles of any challenging moments and the willpower to push onward, regardless of the bruises and scars received in the wake of it all, that help us gain the strength to see ourselves through to the eventual dawn of a brighter day.

Day 8: Revelation

Day 7: Slumber

Just a dream, he thought.

Into the Shadow

A Plague

Has found me,

My body and spirit

Slowly slumbering

To its quiet lull.

In my prayerful mind,

A void is unlocked,

Where the thing has made

Its domain.

A small sliver of light

Dances behind me,

Illuminating the abyss

But also a road

To follow its still, small voice.

I choose the small sliver of light

Over defeating the monster,

For I do not desire eternal imprisonment

For defeating the monster.

Over its existing influence,

The light’s voice beckons onward

To a better salvation.

Public Service Announcement: Anxiety and Depression

For a while, I have been debating whether or not posting this or even writing this was a half-decent idea, as I myself have dealt with this in the past. However, after a couple of recent episodes, I feel that this isn’t something that I can hold back anymore. Therefore, I have put the following into writing not only to work through my feelings, but, also, to hopefully reach out to a soul who might need this. Critiques are welcome, but please keep them civil.

Having one or both of these sucks. It’s not something to brag about or to make light of under any circumstance. Anyone who has this can tell you what it’s like to feel a sense of calm one minute, going about their day in a carefree manner until they encounter something or their mind drifts off to something that triggers an inner mechanism–and then, all of a sudden, a descent into a fatalistic worry ensues, and the world may as well be ending in the eye of the victim. Or one may find themselves drowning in a sea of their own feelings of worthlessness and apathy–they see themselves as a blight on the Mona Lisa, so to speak, and feel that they don’t belong among their family or peers. Or anger that they feel will manifest itself in a pent-up, volatile outburst at seemingly nothing. Some moments you feel like you’re on top of the world and ready to let yourself shine, and others make you want to fade into the canvas so that life can go on without hesitation. And no one could even tell from a Facebook or Instagram photo that your mind was drifting into dark terrain in the days leading up to the taken photo or the days since.

Many are afraid of coming forward with their personal issues and illnesses because of the backlash that they fear they will receive: you’re sweating the small stuff, quit feeling sorry for yourself, other people have it worse than you so quit whining, or it’s not the end of the world. The list goes on, but these are examples of the kinds of things those that suffer fear to hear, as if it’s a confirmation that they aren’t allowed to feel the sinister things that haunt them regularly. As everyone is a unique individual in one way or another, so also do those that live with anxiety or depression receive a different effect of the mental illness(es) as well as respond to it in a unique way or form. Studies and findings about the most common signs of anxiety and depression are abundant all over the world wide web, yet many still respond to these things as if it were the same thing as a person who chronically complains about a frivolous matter of work or a person who throws a temper tantrum if they’re accused of stealing something from another.

Anxiety and depression aren’t easy to live with, and it isn’t always an easy task to get out of bed everyday and put on a happy mask to entertain the masses. Heck, sometimes it can be hard to find the willpower to leave the room, whether it is out of fear or despair. We as individuals need to make more time to understand the individual and why they feel the way that they do, and at least be there to listen without making an excuse for judgment if not have a solution to the problem altogether. The less likely those struggling will encounter the stigma, the more comfortable they’ll feel about opening up or coming out of the “mental illness” closet, as some would argue, and thus making greater the road to help and possible treatment. There are people who are already willing to help the stricken crowd (and some may be suffering themselves), so we need to show that we are willing to listen and nurture the mind and spirit in the best way we can.

To those who are suffering from these illnesses or something akin to it, know this: you are not alone in your suffering. You are loved more than you realize. You are worth more than you realize. Whatever plagues you does not define you. Reach out to others for help, especially those who love and care for you–or reach out to those who are also under the same cloud, so that they can work through their emotions easier. Face the day knowing that the sun will still rise. Much love to you all.


Deepika Padukone arrives in Kolkata for ‘Tamasha’

Recently captured images of Deepika Padukone and Imtiaz Ali, show them hard at work in the ‘City of Joy’. On the 16th of January, the two were seen at old Kolkata terminal. Deepika was in the city shooting a sequence for her upcoming movie ‘Tamasha’. Deepika was glad because of the presence of fans. She happily signed autographs, posed for pictures and even waved at the paparazzi.

The actress, who recently and very proudly confessed to be battling depression, looked stunning in a floral black top, jeans and chic mustard yellow jacket. This film is being shot in different parts of the world. First the cast and crew were busy in France. Next, they visited Shimla and after the shoot in Kolkata ends, Team ‘Tamasha’ will be headed to Delhi for the final sequence. Deepika’s costar in this movie is Ranbir Kapoor.

Ranbir and Deepika’s on-screen chemistry was first observed in ‘Bachna Ae Haseenon’. This lovely couple will again be seen together in ‘Tamasha’. Real life exes, Ranbir and Deepika still manage to uphold their chemistry in films as was seen in ‘Yeh Jawani Hai Deewani’. Fans can be certain that there will be a considerable amount of romance, chemistry and magic in ‘Tamasha’ as well. Not just because of the hit onscreen couple but also because of director Imtiaz Ali, who specializes in the genre.

In ‘Tamasha’ Ranbir’s character is that of a nomad and Deepika plays a comic book enthusiast. Both these actors are known for experimenting with different roles. In this movie the characters accidentally meet in Corsica, in France. Deepika is visiting Corsica and exploring the place as it is the background setting in the comic series ‘Asterix’. The two later on, form a troupe to stage plays. A source revealed that “Ranbir’s character is that of a gregarious and altruistic wanderer. He travels from place to place, never knowing what comes next, but he enjoys the journey and pleasing others”. The characters are quite unconventional hence; ‘Tamasha’ will be an interesting watch due to the quirkiness of the leading couple.

A R Rahman, Bollywood’s leading musical maestro has composed the music for this film. It is his second time working with Imtiaz. ‘Tamasha’ also happens to be Ranbir and Deepika’s 2nd film with the director. While Deepika played the lead in ‘Love Aaj Kal’, Ranbir delivered a rocking performance in ‘Rockstar’. All of Deepika, Ranbir and Imtiaz’s fans are eagerly awaiting this movie, which is likely to release around Christmas.


Policy Based Routing for Destination?

Our firewall is not up to snuff at our School District to handle the bandwidth we actually have and can occasionally push through.

I have an HP E8206zl Procurve switch for my core router.  We have multiple school sites that all have a direct fibre connection to that core switch.  Each school is on a separate vlan.  We have government testing coming up in a few weeks, and last year, we found out that our firewall was not up to the job of handling all of the traffic that was trying to go through.  We have 2G of bandwidth through our provider but the firewall starts choking at around 850Mb.

A new firewall is down the pipeline, but will not be here before testing this year.   We decided on trying something for this year, but I'm having trouble finding information on my specific needs.  We'd like to do a Policy Based Routing argument that directs any traffic headed to the IPs for the state testing goes through a second software firewall.  All other traffic would remain going through the original connection and firewall.

Most everything I can find online about PBR talks about splitting traffic from two or more vlans.  In our case the traffic would all be coming from the same vlan(s) but we'd want to split it up based on its destination.  How would I go about making this happen?

Thanks in advance for any help.
Ryan McKayAsked:
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Qlemo"Batchelor", Developer and EE Topic AdvisorCommented:
Routing based on destination is classic routing, not PBR. Just set up routes for those particular IPs and the other gateway.

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Ryan McKayAuthor Commented:
an example of my making something much harder than it actually is.  D'oh.  Thanks.

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Implement a stack in SQL Server using stored procedures.

In this article I will show you how to implement a stack.  In programming, stacks are a great way to manage data or work.  Everyone pulls from the same pool and there is no duplication (once a unit is pulled off the stack, it is no longer available to any other process).  This can be accomplished in SQL Server using stored procedures.  We don't need semaphores, we have ACID transactions, which will come in handy.  If you will be attending my Virtual Presentation 'SSIS Workload Thread Balancing', this article will be a good foundation.

First thing we need to do is split the the workload into smaller units.  This will be specific to each process.  Second thing we need to do is provide a way to randomize the work we need to do and then distribute this work across as many threads as possible.  Since each unit of work can take a different amount of time, you want to minimize the chance of a single thread getting a majority or possibly all of the work that take a long time.  What's the point of having multiple threads if you have to wait for a single process to finish it's workload?  You want to spread the workload across as many threads as possible to reduce the total time to finish the overall task.

In my real world example I need to calculate sales information for reps per company.  I first create a table that I will later use to randomize the work.  I will use the HashBytes function of SQL Server to do this for me as a calculated field in a column.  This is a cryptographically secure function which will be excellent for randomizing the order of the rows (see Cryptographic Hash Functions).

The Rep/Company combination is needed by other processes so we have to create an additional temporary table to extract and finalize the data.  I simply tacked on the Hash column as I developed the stack concept.  The temporary table looks like this:

We then load this table with the data from the first table (T002_RepAssignment), add an order by based upon the hash and voila, we have our stack.

The first part of implementing a stack is complete, we built our stack.  Now we need to build the process to emulate a 'pop'.  As a refresher, you 'pop' things off a stack, the opposite of a 'push', which is how you normally create a stack.  We can do this with a single stored procedure.  Let's dissect this procedure and see how it works.

The procedure returns two pieces of information, @rcount (which will actually be a 0 or 1) and the unit of work to be done, @query (which is a fully qualified sql statement).  What I do is send sql statements to the SSIS process to run.  This procedure builds those SQL statements, while using the SSIS framework to manage the threads.  The heart of the procedure is the blue highlighted section:A combination of Delete top(1) and output into a temporary table.  In one fell swoop I grab the first row in the table,  push it into a temporary table, then delete it.  No need for a begin/commit tran with a select followed by a delete.  Having multiple procedures running at the same time, they would only block for the delete and then continue on simultaneously.

There you have it.  The combination of using a cryptographic hash to randomize the data in the table (creating the stack), then using the Delete Top(1)/Output to pop the data off the stack in a quick and controlled manner.