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2026.RA.Pure-Rounds-Sweep

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bayesian-agents
belief-accuracy
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  1. README.md +114 -0
  2. artifact_manifest.json +472 -0
  3. bank/bank_manifest.json +537 -0
  4. bank/scorable_negotiation-L0-033f0874d5.json +528 -0
  5. bank/scorable_negotiation-L0-44925c2d5b.json +529 -0
  6. bank/scorable_negotiation-L0-5b80bb74c6.json +529 -0
  7. bank/scorable_negotiation-L0-86d39f433e.json +527 -0
  8. bank/scorable_negotiation-L0-db777d04d1.json +527 -0
  9. bank/scorable_negotiation-L1-1381dc04db.json +529 -0
  10. bank/scorable_negotiation-L1-6e5961e973.json +527 -0
  11. bank/scorable_negotiation-L1-6f6151e1d5.json +528 -0
  12. bank/scorable_negotiation-L1-a9e4838c4c.json +527 -0
  13. bank/scorable_negotiation-L1-b3fd37949a.json +528 -0
  14. bank/scorable_negotiation-L2-107032bc27.json +529 -0
  15. bank/scorable_negotiation-L2-5edb2fff08.json +527 -0
  16. bank/scorable_negotiation-L2-c07670b4c3.json +527 -0
  17. bank/scorable_negotiation-L2-cd5957683b.json +530 -0
  18. bank/scorable_negotiation-L2-f3366df5c2.json +527 -0
  19. bank/scorable_negotiation-L3-09d8108a8f.json +528 -0
  20. bank/scorable_negotiation-L3-78a36182a2.json +529 -0
  21. bank/scorable_negotiation-L3-81f699e3fe.json +530 -0
  22. bank/scorable_negotiation-L3-8e55401ea3.json +529 -0
  23. bank/scorable_negotiation-L3-901198dd46.json +528 -0
  24. bank/scorable_negotiation-L4-05f715c1e6.json +529 -0
  25. bank/scorable_negotiation-L4-35d9e3e112.json +528 -0
  26. bank/scorable_negotiation-L4-592a4f7b6d.json +529 -0
  27. bank/scorable_negotiation-L4-b9891ffb3e.json +530 -0
  28. belief_turns.csv.gz +3 -0
  29. campaign_manifest.json +3887 -0
  30. cells.csv +13 -0
  31. episodes.csv +0 -0
  32. episodes/all_oracle_r128.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  33. episodes/all_oracle_r16.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  34. episodes/all_oracle_r256.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  35. episodes/all_oracle_r32.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  36. episodes/all_oracle_r4.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  37. episodes/all_oracle_r64.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  38. episodes/all_oracle_r8.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  39. episodes/all_rational_r16.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  40. episodes/all_rational_r32.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  41. episodes/all_rational_r4.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  42. episodes/all_rational_r64.jsonl.gz +3 -0
  43. episodes/all_rational_r8.jsonl.gz +3 -0
README.md ADDED
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+ ---
2
+ tags:
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+ - negotiation
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+ - multi-agent
5
+ - game-theory
6
+ - bayesian-agents
7
+ - belief-accuracy
8
+ configs:
9
+ - config_name: default
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+ data_files:
11
+ - split: episodes
12
+ path: episodes.csv
13
+ - split: cells
14
+ path: cells.csv
15
+ ---
16
+
17
+ # 2026.RA.Pure-Rounds-Sweep — does more negotiating time help a Bayesian table close?
18
+
19
+ Five automated negotiators must agree on one package out of 256. Each holds a private score sheet and a
20
+ private walk-away threshold; a deal needs all five to accept. This corpus sweeps the one thing the frozen
21
+ campaign never varied — **the number of negotiation rounds before the forced final vote** — across
22
+ 4 to 256 rounds, for the two lineups that contain no language model and therefore
23
+ cost only CPU: `all_rational` (five copies of a Bayesian agent that maintains a posterior over hypotheses
24
+ about each opponent's sheet) and `all_oracle` (five agents that are simply told every sheet).
25
+
26
+ **The headline: more time buys nothing.** Deal rate across deadlines 4 → 64 reads 0.233 / 0.267 / 0.208 /
27
+ 0.208 / 0.250 and normalized score 0.195 / 0.230 / 0.182 / 0.178 / 0.207, with every instance-clustered
28
+ interval overlapping every other. Rounds-to-agreement tracks the deadline almost exactly, so the agents use
29
+ the whole horizon and finish where they started. The mechanism is in `belief_turns.csv.gz`: belief accuracy
30
+ saturates by round 16, so extra rounds deliver no extra identification of opponents, and without
31
+ identification there is nothing to concede to. The omniscient arm closes 1.000 of games at every deadline,
32
+ confirming the horizon itself is not the constraint. Full analysis: **research note 0061** in the source repo.
33
+
34
+ ## What is in here
35
+
36
+ | file | rows | what it is |
37
+ |---|---:|---|
38
+ | `episodes.csv` | 1440 | one row per played negotiation: outcome, welfare, Gini, IR violations, rounds used, and per-episode belief scalars |
39
+ | `belief_turns.csv.gz` | 81672 | **the novel instrumentation** — one row per (episode, believer seat, turn): `posterior_mass_true_type`, `expected_utility_rmse`, `accept_set_f1` |
40
+ | `cells.csv` | 12 | per-cell aggregates with instance-clustered 95% intervals |
41
+ | `episodes/<cell_id>.jsonl.gz` | 12 files | complete episode records — every turn, parsed action, and belief block |
42
+ | `bank/` | 24 | the frozen instance bank, without which surplus columns cannot be recomputed |
43
+
44
+ Key columns: `experiment_name` (append-safe grouping), `cell_id`, `arm`, `deadline_rounds`, `host`,
45
+ `instance_id`, `seed`, `deal_rate`, `normalized_primary` (realized normalized utilitarian welfare over the
46
+ instance's feasible ceiling; a no-deal scores 0), `rounds_to_agreement`, `belief_auc_accept_set_f1`.
47
+
48
+ ## Experiment-name mapping
49
+
50
+ | experiment_name | description |
51
+ |---|---|
52
+ | `pure-rounds-sweep-v1` | the 12 complete cells below — `all_oracle` at [4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256], `all_rational` at [4, 8, 16, 32, 64] — at 120 episodes each (24 frozen parameter sets × seeds 0–4), unanimity, private information. The grid is deliberately incomplete: `all_rational` at 128 and 256 rounds is a stated gap (see Provenance). |
53
+
54
+ | cell | arm | deadline | episodes | host | deal rate | score |
55
+ |---|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|
56
+ | `all_oracle_r4` | all_oracle | 4 | 120 | tiger7 | 1.000 | 0.888 |
57
+ | `all_oracle_r8` | all_oracle | 8 | 120 | tiger7 | 1.000 | 0.884 |
58
+ | `all_oracle_r16` | all_oracle | 16 | 120 | tiger7 | 1.000 | 0.877 |
59
+ | `all_oracle_r32` | all_oracle | 32 | 120 | tiger7 | 1.000 | 0.899 |
60
+ | `all_oracle_r64` | all_oracle | 64 | 120 | tiger7 | 1.000 | 0.890 |
61
+ | `all_oracle_r128` | all_oracle | 128 | 120 | tiger7 | 1.000 | 0.884 |
62
+ | `all_oracle_r256` | all_oracle | 256 | 120 | tiger7 | 1.000 | 0.877 |
63
+ | `all_rational_r4` | all_rational | 4 | 120 | jagupard29 | 0.233 | 0.195 |
64
+ | `all_rational_r8` | all_rational | 8 | 120 | viscam1 | 0.267 | 0.230 |
65
+ | `all_rational_r16` | all_rational | 16 | 120 | jagupard34 | 0.208 | 0.182 |
66
+ | `all_rational_r32` | all_rational | 32 | 120 | jagupard34 | 0.208 | 0.178 |
67
+ | `all_rational_r64` | all_rational | 64 | 120 | iliad1 | 0.250 | 0.207 |
68
+
69
+ ## Two caveats that change how these numbers read
70
+
71
+ 1. **`all_oracle` is a flat control for AGGREGATES ONLY.** Closure and mean score are horizon-invariant, but
72
+ per episode — same host, same instance and seed — it lands on materially different deals at different
73
+ deadlines (91–97 of 120 differ, median |Δscore| 0.14). Do not run a paired within-episode oracle contrast
74
+ across deadlines. Its small residual aggregate variation is periodic in `(deadline + 1) mod 5`, the
75
+ identity of the rotating seat that holds the forced final.
76
+ 2. **Episode-level identity is host-dependent.** Around 3–6% of episodes in the `all_rational` arm sit on
77
+ near-ties whose resolution depends on the host CPU's float-summation order, usually flipping a whole
78
+ deal/no-deal outcome. The `host` column is provided for that reason; aggregate comparisons are unaffected
79
+ (the `rounds=4` cells are statistically indistinguishable from the frozen campaign), but episode-level
80
+ pairing across cells on different hosts is not clean. The `all_oracle` arm is unaffected.
81
+
82
+ ## Regenerating this
83
+
84
+ ```bash
85
+ # create the grid sweep, fan it out across Slurm CPU nodes, then close any preemption holes
86
+ uv run python experiments/rational_agents/launch_rounds_sweep.py --create-only
87
+ experiments/rational_agents/submit_rounds_sweep.sh --sweep-id <entity>/<project>/<id> --jobs 5 --cpus 16 \
88
+ -- --shards-per-cell 16 --shard-timeout-s 10800 --bootstrap-samples 2000
89
+ uv run python experiments/rational_agents/launch_rounds_sweep.py --sweep-id <id> --fill-missing
90
+ # then package and upload
91
+ uv run python experiments/rational_agents/package_hf_rounds_sweep.py --out /tmp/rounds_sweep_hf
92
+ uv run python experiments/rational_agents/upload_hf_publication.py --folder /tmp/rounds_sweep_hf --repo siddharthmb/2026.RA.Pure-Rounds-Sweep
93
+ ```
94
+
95
+ ## Provenance
96
+
97
+ - **W&B sweep:** https://wandb.ai/siddharth-stanford/rational_agents/sweeps/ufrdew0j (a real `method: grid` sweep over arm × rounds; one run per cell)
98
+ - **Cluster artifacts:** `/nlp/scr/siddharth/ii_mats/rational_agents/pure_rounds_sweep_v1/` — per-cell run
99
+ directories in the ordinary schema, per-cell records under `control/cells/`, manifest at
100
+ `control/campaign_manifest.json` (status `partial-final-12`)
101
+ - **Slurm logs:** `/juice2/u/siddharth/ii_mats/logs/rounds_sweep/<jobid>.out`, first line of each is the exact
102
+ invocation
103
+ - **Bank:** `experiments/rational_agents/instances_five_seat_private_v2`, manifest SHA-256
104
+ `cd32ebdef8072da3…`
105
+ - **Known gap:** `all_rational_r128` and `all_rational_r256` are absent — r256 lost every shard to a cluster
106
+ preemption and r128 was still refilling at publication time. They will be appended under the same
107
+ `experiment_name` when they land.
108
+
109
+ ## Related
110
+
111
+ - `siddharthmb/2026.RA.Quorum-Rounds-Sweep` — the agreement-rule axis: relaxing unanimity *does* move closure
112
+ (0.217 → 0.908), which is the contrast that makes this null informative
113
+ - `siddharthmb/2026.RA.Agent-Variants-Closure` — the preference-sharing axis, the other lever that works
114
+ - `siddharthmb/2026.RA.Five-Seat-Frontier-Negotiation` — the frozen campaign these cells are anchored against
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+ }
cells.csv ADDED
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