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results_weekly/sirc_params_tvae_weekly.csv

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 ,0
-delta_min,0.0045648906379938126
-delta_max,0.022680621594190598
-S0_base,0.30520451068878174
-ihr,0.00855877622961998
+delta_min,0.0030639804899692535
+delta_max,0.020073432475328445
+S0_base,0.6548731923103333
+ihr,0.008382285945117474
 beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 sigma,0.008333333333333333
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-calib_rrmse_w,0.8926765322685242
-rrmse_calib_w,1.00642991065979
-rrmse_valid_w,0.9878720045089722
+calib_rrmse_w,6.9173455238342285
+rrmse_calib_w,7.144202709197998
+rrmse_valid_w,1.0018669366836548

results_weekly/sirc_params_vae_weekly.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 ,0
-delta_min,0.005430981982499361
-delta_max,0.02444760501384735
-S0_base,0.4086726903915405
-ihr,0.012391278520226479
+delta_min,0.0011075935326516628
+delta_max,0.020414376631379128
+S0_base,0.9105170965194702
+ihr,0.008092175237834454
 beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 sigma,0.008333333333333333
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-calib_rrmse_w,0.8461944460868835
-rrmse_calib_w,0.9226938486099243
-rrmse_valid_w,0.9782910943031311
-rrmse_cum_w,1.657530085958684
+calib_rrmse_w,17.44268798828125
+rrmse_calib_w,18.014732360839844
+rrmse_valid_w,13.094040870666504
+rrmse_cum_w,6.741478539047073

results_weekly/sirc_weekly_peak_timing.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,obs_peak,pred_peak,abs_err,split
-2010-11,21,30,9,Calib
-2011-12,24,1,23,Calib
-2012-13,14,30,16,Calib
-2013-14,14,30,16,Calib
-2014-15,13,1,12,Calib
-2015-16,23,30,7,Calib
-2016-17,21,1,20,Calib
-2017-18,14,1,13,Calib
-2018-19,24,1,23,Valid
-2019-20,19,1,18,Valid
-2021-22,29,1,28,Valid
-2022-23,9,1,8,Valid
-2023-24,13,1,12,Valid
-2024-25,19,1,18,Valid
-2025-26,13,28,15,Valid
+2010-11,21,26,5,Calib
+2011-12,24,26,2,Calib
+2012-13,14,26,12,Calib
+2013-14,14,26,12,Calib
+2014-15,13,30,17,Calib
+2015-16,23,25,2,Calib
+2016-17,21,30,9,Calib
+2017-18,14,27,13,Calib
+2018-19,24,30,6,Valid
+2019-20,19,30,11,Valid
+2021-22,29,30,1,Valid
+2022-23,9,30,21,Valid
+2023-24,13,30,17,Valid
+2024-25,19,29,10,Valid
+2025-26,13,13,0,Valid

results_weekly/sirc_weekly_preds_vae.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,week_1,week_2,week_3,week_4,week_5,week_6,week_7,week_8,week_9,week_10,week_11,week_12,week_13,week_14,week_15,week_16,week_17,week_18,week_19,week_20,week_21,week_22,week_23,week_24,week_25,week_26,week_27,week_28,week_29,week_30
-2010-11,0.068012916,0.041243866,0.026630525,0.018258251,0.013247373,0.010135014,0.008147129,0.006851985,0.0060163615,0.005486248,0.005187914,0.0050740796,0.0051093497,0.0052908566,0.0056224773,0.006116077,0.006795853,0.007699872,0.008886716,0.010426117,0.012412632,0.014989973,0.01833669,0.0226822,0.02835172,0.035814963,0.045616336,0.05856269,0.075785,0.09869285
-2011-12,0.06773112,0.039984293,0.024939107,0.016397644,0.011336528,0.008220734,0.0062348335,0.0049312687,0.004059816,0.0034652387,0.003065296,0.0028008432,0.002633852,0.002550275,0.0025376168,0.0025853466,0.0026937353,0.0028673622,0.003114847,0.003447171,0.003880743,0.0044364613,0.0051499386,0.006065588,0.0072348164,0.008727227,0.010646483,0.013140733,0.016364112,0.020557597
-2012-13,0.067893334,0.042052265,0.027897196,0.01976075,0.014883442,0.011863351,0.009962866,0.0087724505,0.008070422,0.0077155954,0.007649653,0.007831935,0.008253408,0.008932174,0.009900783,0.011210965,0.012944386,0.015212592,0.018158158,0.021987546,0.02697338,0.033462297,0.04195688,0.05311002,0.0677653,0.08715567,0.112856045,0.14697777,0.19250374,0.25329226
-2013-14,0.069225475,0.04563333,0.032624543,0.02519615,0.020883808,0.018434692,0.01721703,0.01688532,0.01729673,0.018395364,0.020220947,0.022872541,0.02652439,0.031433046,0.037954133,0.046584383,0.057983153,0.07306781,0.093040094,0.119575664,0.15486151,0.20194533,0.2648192,0.34897956,0.46167934,0.61280024,0.81531423,1.0866264,1.4494424,1.9333191
-2014-15,0.06383802,0.034482665,0.019250518,0.011094913,0.0065942407,0.004041477,0.0025497521,0.001652703,0.0011034489,0.0007547252,0.0005291578,0.00038238888,0.0002807353,0.0002113764,0.00016352933,0.00012860197,0.00010321336,8.4748914e-05,7.0702234e-05,5.9829126e-05,5.1696836e-05,4.5692286e-05,4.128354e-05,3.785752e-05,3.4900324e-05,3.2267697e-05,3.0626816e-05,2.9481804e-05,2.8769551e-05,2.8408916e-05
-2015-16,0.06949411,0.04591506,0.032911032,0.025490021,0.021193197,0.018770695,0.017591404,0.017316673,0.01780645,0.019012373,0.020984877,0.02383565,0.027760245,0.033040967,0.040073324,0.04940627,0.061777126,0.078206874,0.100047134,0.12918338,0.16808884,0.22023076,0.29015577,0.38416833,0.5105967,0.680847,0.9099416,1.2180116,1.6314825,2.1845474
-2016-17,0.06450422,0.035719905,0.020598728,0.01235182,0.007690414,0.0049681165,0.0033217876,0.0022965241,0.0016397833,0.0012074556,0.0009146752,0.0007134596,0.00057082897,0.00046914833,0.0003949299,0.00033923006,0.00029846042,0.00026901468,0.00024762913,0.00023111209,0.0002193374,0.000212287,0.00020907738,0.00020940194,0.00021280993,0.00021903086,0.00022838931,0.00024140818,0.00025833992,0.00027974354
-2017-18,0.06710027,0.03856338,0.023236295,0.014652798,0.009651359,0.0066303224,0.0047392854,0.003517783,0.0027076555,0.0021554353,0.0017735062,0.0015036439,0.001311282,0.0011775591,0.0010859221,0.0010228833,0.0009867839,0.0009739994,0.0009823481,0.0010097743,0.0010556648,0.0011235182,0.001215065,0.0013353182,0.0014896514,0.0016839609,0.0019282182,0.002233891,0.0026202742,0.003107418
-2018-19,0.06401961,0.035936046,0.021132529,0.012995696,0.008341393,0.0055805896,0.0038811304,0.0028010597,0.0020944702,0.0016188485,0.0012916456,0.001061417,0.0008964271,0.00077896874,0.0006943821,0.0006313794,0.00058788696,0.0005598297,0.00054426835,0.00053829985,0.00054100464,0.00055333826,0.0005749222,0.0006064055,0.00064840127,0.0007022439,0.0007697005,0.00085336744,0.00095694145,0.0010840287
-2019-20,0.06278318,0.03468067,0.0200189,0.012056001,0.0075612348,0.004931431,0.0033401079,0.0023412067,0.001699973,0.0012727934,0.0009832496,0.0007815112,0.00063824945,0.0005359197,0.0004597358,0.00040358512,0.0003630319,0.00033410906,0.00031288576,0.0002973064,0.00028821843,0.00028423345,0.00028488255,0.00028973309,0.00029844238,0.00031162356,0.00032938475,0.0003524112,0.00038129798,0.00041678434
-2021-22,0.06204728,0.032967735,0.018084679,0.010231403,0.0059630238,0.003579677,0.0022117214,0.0014007192,0.00091522513,0.0006099668,0.00041805554,0.0002945746,0.00021005109,0.0001543422,0.000116556796,8.894128e-05,6.917855e-05,5.5140885e-05,4.4781686e-05,3.6856763e-05,3.09604e-05,2.6614765e-05,2.3342014e-05,2.0655292e-05,1.8202985e-05,1.6444896e-05,1.51105505e-05,1.4091761e-05,1.3325414e-05,1.2721353e-05
-2022-23,0.06424949,0.036470853,0.02175694,0.013614192,0.008916001,0.006098902,0.004348566,0.003221811,0.0024777157,0.001971368,0.001621968,0.0013737618,0.0011981693,0.0010755719,0.0009885511,0.00092910056,0.0008939928,0.00087915274,0.00088133453,0.0008985548,0.00093241833,0.0009832316,0.0010528339,0.0011431186,0.0012575296,0.0013998536,0.0015767986,0.0017959736,0.0020655473,0.0023980876
-2023-24,0.06485586,0.03666807,0.021728432,0.013471074,0.008720654,0.0058859563,0.004132429,0.0030110027,0.0022744264,0.0017759404,0.001432509,0.0011897665,0.0010163558,0.00089368626,0.0008055655,0.00074148085,0.0006990884,0.0006741866,0.0006636561,0.0006644315,0.0006769455,0.0007015948,0.00073888426,0.0007900582,0.0008563787,0.00094062276,0.0010453147,0.0011755576,0.0013374641,0.0015370748
-2024-25,0.06596453,0.03724514,0.021970415,0.013518705,0.008661591,0.0057716533,0.003992648,0.002860402,0.0021218243,0.0016246547,0.0012836575,0.001043746,0.0008726433,0.00075069506,0.00066095137,0.00059490127,0.0005488484,0.00051855517,0.0005002169,0.00049010117,0.00048905535,0.00049706135,0.00051384885,0.00053990463,0.0005756976,0.000622057,0.00068130915,0.0007555636,0.00084844476,0.0009636673
-2025-26,0.08876375,0.06467062,0.05128153,0.04405492,0.040771477,0.040439386,0.04271601,0.047848586,0.05650643,0.07001822,0.090746574,0.12234425,0.17115948,0.24741915,0.36853832,0.56389356,0.8836284,1.4139012,2.3026376,3.8019803,6.3324885,10.563203,17.459053,28.133919,43.18054,61.234882,77.66714,86.02368,82.86196,70.684296
+2010-11,0.14120331,0.17194371,0.2110009,0.2607671,0.32443774,0.40604228,0.5109785,0.64608514,0.8203508,1.045096,1.334814,1.7074579,2.1849077,2.7929661,3.56042,4.516934,5.688853,7.0918,8.720883,10.538391,12.462233,14.362539,16.069649,17.40084,18.199707,18.376638,17.930109,16.945768,15.566964,13.957543
+2011-12,0.14251922,0.17446753,0.21479991,0.26585618,0.33071324,0.41323692,0.51853263,0.65301013,0.8249936,1.0448496,1.3256968,1.6835831,2.1378043,2.710828,3.4273465,4.3124166,5.387911,6.6661944,8.142713,9.785029,11.524913,13.253981,14.8297205,16.095297,16.91122,17.18692,16.904083,16.11922,14.944562,13.519274
+2012-13,0.13890275,0.16717075,0.20310465,0.24888822,0.30744267,0.3824436,0.4788283,0.60284317,0.7627172,0.9688147,1.2344586,1.5761939,2.014338,2.5730865,3.2798824,4.16389,5.252572,6.565457,8.105881,9.848869,11.730196,13.639375,15.42268,16.902954,17.91412,18.340765,18.147676,17.387571,16.181152,14.683706
+2013-14,0.13783494,0.16579477,0.2020999,0.249248,0.31060812,0.39053246,0.49487466,0.6311936,0.8094594,1.0424625,1.3466021,1.7424871,2.2552989,2.9148972,3.7547016,4.8089433,6.107247,7.666082,9.475512,11.4853735,13.592758,15.639071,17.42612,18.751326,19.4563,19.46871,18.821878,17.637299,16.087784,14.352972
+2014-15,0.13566811,0.15814054,0.18451174,0.21546061,0.25179452,0.2944748,0.34456435,0.40335667,0.47234136,0.5531768,0.6478149,0.7584293,0.8874126,1.0374621,1.2113892,1.4121906,1.6428534,1.9061294,2.2045734,2.5397136,2.9121833,3.3210843,3.7630336,4.2326074,4.720995,5.216195,5.7035546,6.1653023,6.58273,6.9367247
+2015-16,0.13856782,0.16744708,0.20506382,0.2540852,0.31812027,0.40185577,0.51160717,0.65557635,0.8446017,1.0926648,1.4176853,1.8422592,2.3939734,3.1054235,4.012794,5.1524854,6.554476,8.2321005,10.167153,12.293857,14.487675,16.56543,18.308825,19.508598,20.01911,19.797466,18.91339,17.52143,15.814363,13.97779
+2016-17,0.13614784,0.15951447,0.18737872,0.22064719,0.26041213,0.30804008,0.3650813,0.4334771,0.5155252,0.6139114,0.731903,0.8732053,1.0421976,1.2438505,1.4836539,1.7676845,2.1021223,2.4932945,2.9465508,3.4661138,4.0534697,4.7062564,5.41724,6.1719046,6.949045,7.7190003,8.446343,9.091287,9.614737,9.982351
+2017-18,0.14249472,0.17398874,0.2132708,0.26235652,0.32387385,0.40103233,0.4980101,0.6199548,0.7734005,0.9663446,1.2086979,1.5123495,1.891398,2.361915,2.9414873,3.6480007,4.497231,5.4999237,6.6559997,7.94972,9.34268,10.770209,12.142116,13.349716,14.282269,14.847519,14.990529,14.7074375,14.042604,13.077953
+2018-19,0.13339132,0.15385543,0.17818543,0.20714642,0.2417282,0.2830512,0.33250126,0.3918,0.46293736,0.54835314,0.65098906,0.7742321,0.922197,1.0995705,1.3117932,1.5649371,1.8656572,2.2209604,2.6378016,3.1224735,3.6796205,4.3114667,5.0151415,5.782916,6.598611,7.4381924,8.268406,9.049366,9.736483,10.28672
+2019-20,0.13030116,0.14721079,0.16691844,0.18991552,0.21678679,0.24826352,0.28513426,0.3283873,0.37920824,0.43893668,0.50916076,0.59179854,0.6889759,0.80320996,0.93738735,1.0946877,1.2787385,1.4933827,1.7427412,2.0309627,2.3619127,2.739138,3.164687,3.639355,4.161316,4.7253633,5.322872,5.939876,6.5585804,7.156463
+2021-22,0.13057403,0.14726314,0.16623351,0.18780367,0.21232814,0.24023816,0.27199093,0.30810064,0.34916222,0.39586508,0.44892016,0.5091404,0.57744056,0.6548012,0.7422444,0.8409159,0.95197266,1.0765753,1.2159051,1.3710642,1.542955,1.7323129,1.9396981,2.164829,2.4071238,2.6653895,2.9373505,3.2197087,3.5084834,3.7983012
+2022-23,0.13333175,0.1538841,0.17846863,0.20791698,0.2432889,0.2858502,0.33711213,0.39899936,0.4737695,0.5641789,0.6736097,0.80598193,0.9660805,1.1594187,1.3924292,1.6723434,2.00714,2.405196,2.8748748,3.4235177,4.056556,4.7755675,5.5764303,6.4474874,7.3669014,8.302621,9.211688,10.043866,10.74602,11.269085
+2023-24,0.13577995,0.15902287,0.18701036,0.22077295,0.26157346,0.31101584,0.37095436,0.44376153,0.53227603,0.6399167,0.77089417,0.930103,1.1234617,1.3577572,1.6408185,1.9812329,2.3882856,2.8711429,3.4383254,4.095865,4.846506,5.6856904,6.6013904,7.569758,8.555423,9.510752,10.380075,11.104404,11.630501,11.918248
+2024-25,0.13984141,0.16781984,0.20204067,0.2439535,0.29541332,0.35864738,0.4364457,0.53226644,0.65026915,0.79563254,0.9744545,1.19415,1.4632723,1.7917211,2.1903715,2.6707764,3.244229,3.9203806,4.705381,5.5988073,6.5907545,7.6583858,8.763594,9.852242,10.857819,11.707179,12.332203,12.680144,12.7238865,12.467141
+2025-26,0.20319475,0.3451786,0.59219605,1.024465,1.7831633,3.1125467,5.420116,9.336377,15.6905575,25.184378,37.469208,49.892254,57.706684,57.3522,49.691257,38.76308,28.220089,19.753971,13.581362,9.301902,6.405986,4.463831,3.1607168,2.2811372,1.6817925,1.2686276,0.9802418,0.776505,0.6310822,0.52631986