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Browse files- results_new/correlation_comparison.csv +8 -0
- results_new/drift_merged_diffae.csv +16 -0
- results_new/drift_merged_diffae_lag2.csv +16 -0
- results_new/drift_merged_vae.csv +16 -0
- results_new/drift_merged_vae_lag2.csv +16 -0
- results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h1n1.csv +18 -0
- results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h1n1_lag2.csv +17 -0
- results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h3n2.csv +18 -0
- results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h3n2_lag2.csv +17 -0
- results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1.csv +18 -0
- results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1_lag2.csv +17 -0
- results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2.csv +18 -0
- results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2_lag2.csv +17 -0
- results_new/full_model_comparison.csv +13 -0
- results_new/hamming_baseline_h3n2.csv +18 -0
- results_new/hamming_baseline_h3n2_lag2.csv +17 -0
- results_new/latent_diversity_diffae_h3n2.csv +19 -0
- results_new/latent_diversity_vae_h3n2.csv +19 -0
- results_new/sirc_params_diffae.csv +11 -0
- results_new/sirc_params_diffae_combined.csv +8 -0
- results_new/sirc_params_diffae_lag2.csv +8 -0
- results_new/sirc_params_vae.csv +11 -0
- results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae.csv +14 -0
- results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae_combined.csv +14 -0
- results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae_lag2.csv +14 -0
- results_new/sirc_simulation_vae.csv +14 -0
results_new/correlation_comparison.csv
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Metric,rho,p,CI_lo,CI_hi,n,CI
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DiffAE lag-1 (blended),0.4509836398210509,0.09156012139132494,-0.08230678312025709,0.78657442768004,15,"[-0.08, 0.79]"
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| 3 |
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DiffAE lag-2 (blended),0.4255248859601851,0.11380100835183467,-0.15675655456203463,0.8470255585702305,15,"[-0.16, 0.85]"
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| 4 |
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VAE lag-1 (blended),0.4364357804719848,0.10385510395975796,-0.06938106307033166,0.7790487408719494,15,"[-0.07, 0.78]"
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| 5 |
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VAE lag-2 (blended),0.3600595188893874,0.18741406766247667,-0.2067294244964042,0.81380181951844,15,"[-0.21, 0.81]"
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| 6 |
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Hamming H3N2 lag-1,0.007405376032788813,0.9791035961351728,-0.5507549288055146,0.5589298744299823,15,"[-0.55, 0.56]"
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| 7 |
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Hamming H3N2 lag-2,0.033958905427861195,0.9043678210462518,-0.5201586903828396,0.579691735485091,15,"[-0.52, 0.58]"
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| 8 |
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H1N1 co-circulation,0.13939393939393938,0.7009318849100584,-0.7583165363218578,0.8313772647105978,10,"[-0.76, 0.83]"
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results_new/drift_merged_diffae.csv
ADDED
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season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
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| 2 |
+
2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.0,0.0,0.24804329872131348,0.6334858536720276,0.0
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| 3 |
+
2011-12,,,8.7,False,0.4273015856742859,0.0,0.4716861844062805,0.35191088914871216,0.0
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| 4 |
+
2012-13,,,44.0,False,0.163345068693161,1.0,0.3335355222225189,0.8725024461746216,0.0
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| 5 |
+
2013-14,,,35.1,False,0.4886309802532196,0.2715979516506195,0.5037850141525269,0.49330249428749084,0.0
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| 6 |
+
2014-15,,,64.1,False,1.0,0.14287497103214264,1.3685952425003052,0.4262903928756714,0.0
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| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,1.0,0.1592789888381958,1.6669156551361084,0.4348301887512207,0.5695289642810822
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| 8 |
+
2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.0,0.3544546365737915,0.22882786393165588,0.5364369750022888,0.2637142496109009
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| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.23939603567123413,0.6978965401649475,0.5731003880500793,0.7152299284934998,0.4429777984023094
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| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.01841057650744915,1.0,0.25530388951301575,1.0809435844421387,0.42957349978387355
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| 11 |
+
2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.14152944087982178,0.9556304812431335,0.43235963582992554,1.048596739768982,0.11433298283815385
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| 12 |
+
2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.22006897628307343,0.0,0.545306384563446,0.13375942409038544,0.0011003448814153672
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| 13 |
+
2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.09678341448307037,0.6215327978134155,0.36801090836524963,0.7248053550720215,0.43445285655558114
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| 14 |
+
2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.0,0.8863349556922913,0.22312119603157043,0.9766187071800232,0.23931043803691865
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| 15 |
+
2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.19731348752975464,0.18942971527576447,0.5080013275146484,0.31389740109443665,0.18064827539026737
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| 16 |
+
2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.20793618261814117,1.0,0.5233383178710938,1.1456091403961182,0.8310809162706138
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results_new/drift_merged_diffae_lag2.csv
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| 1 |
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season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
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| 2 |
+
2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.5,0.5,0.7832880616188049,0.8495582938194275,0.0
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| 3 |
+
2011-12,,,8.7,False,0.0,0.0,0.6247504353523254,0.6389322280883789,0.0
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| 4 |
+
2012-13,,,44.0,False,0.0,1.0,0.3142639696598053,1.1452711820602417,0.0
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| 5 |
+
2013-14,,,35.1,False,1.0,0.9232707023620605,0.7889003753662109,1.1064201593399048,0.0
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| 6 |
+
2014-15,,,64.1,False,1.0,0.3624384105205536,1.5993525981903076,0.8224489092826843,0.0
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,0.24735169112682343,0.0,0.6321328282356262,0.41793110966682434,0.13480667166411878
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,1.0,0.20796944200992584,1.615683913230896,0.5691956281661987,0.17872926485538482
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.2806945741176605,0.6855401992797852,0.6795654892921448,0.9165520071983337,0.4401439021229744
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.26834338903427124,0.8694409728050232,0.663491427898407,1.0503103733062744,0.5047037708759308
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.21791546046733856,0.9903162717819214,0.597863495349884,1.1382278203964233,0.15631607665121555
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| 12 |
+
2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.24649789929389954,0.7569807767868042,0.6350612640380859,1.1520466804504395,0.7476155354082584
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| 13 |
+
2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.39531269669532776,0.29457464814186096,0.8287317752838135,0.7036079168319702,0.3068971892297268
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| 14 |
+
2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.08234912157058716,0.5973201394081116,0.42143476009368896,0.9972087740898132,0.2007216668725014
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| 15 |
+
2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.18352560698986053,0.6847919821739197,0.5531078577041626,1.082038402557373,0.3902827972769737
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| 16 |
+
2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.381717711687088,0.7308477163314819,0.8110390305519104,1.1267030239105225,0.6328956207931042
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results_new/drift_merged_vae.csv
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| 1 |
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season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.0,1.0,0.4765355885028839,1.8256953954696655,0.0
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,,,8.7,False,0.7771082520484924,0.0,1.2336639165878296,0.6962876319885254,0.0
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,,,44.0,False,0.8612916469573975,0.792908787727356,1.3156828880310059,1.5918049812316895,0.0
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,,,35.1,False,0.4212644696235657,0.0,0.8869690895080566,0.654697597026825,0.0
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,,,64.1,False,1.0,0.006697823293507099,3.2298309803009033,0.6625407338142395,0.0
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,1.0,0.20731179416179657,3.283017158508301,0.8974592685699463,0.5769260163009167
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.0,0.17906098067760468,0.4732111394405365,0.8643776178359985,0.1332213696241379
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.13604898750782013,0.5261702537536621,0.8554823994636536,1.2708418369293213,0.32908903011679647
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.027665432542562485,1.0,0.5509456396102905,2.76694655418396,0.43438602492213246
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.20611804723739624,0.9137588739395142,1.0523629188537598,2.5847837924957275,0.14691279691457748
|
| 12 |
+
2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.38804563879966736,0.0,1.5635441541671753,0.4439891576766968,0.001940228193998337
|
| 13 |
+
2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.112335704267025,0.5008900165557861,0.7888526916503906,1.6075353622436523,0.3600470893606544
|
| 14 |
+
2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.005797598510980606,0.8240506052970886,0.4895012676715851,2.3582236766815186,0.22527071311697366
|
| 15 |
+
2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.16002748906612396,0.046057555824518204,0.9228573441505432,0.5509788990020752,0.09950078647211194
|
| 16 |
+
2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.16448518633842468,0.7662937641143799,0.935382604598999,2.2240569591522217,0.6374232170879841
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results_new/drift_merged_vae_lag2.csv
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| 1 |
+
season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,,,21.5,False,0.5,0.5,1.6838395595550537,1.9789416790008545,0.0
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,,,8.7,False,0.0,0.0,1.3984899520874023,1.708930492401123,0.0
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,,,44.0,False,0.0,0.4988865554332733,0.6571968793869019,1.8436354398727417,0.0
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,,,35.1,False,1.0,0.37926939129829407,1.6866796016693115,1.8113374710083008,0.0
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,,,64.1,False,1.0,0.0,3.275588274002075,1.08387291431427,0.0
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,0.4147420823574066,0.0,1.7431540489196777,0.7172882556915283,0.2260344348847866
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,1.0,0.3215588331222534,3.3537778854370117,1.1229840517044067,0.26323977184295655
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.14222393929958344,0.6186472177505493,1.040715217590332,1.4978066682815552,0.3849770223200321
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.09591016173362732,1.0,0.9158263802528381,2.315126657485962,0.4698732841014862
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.26431745290756226,0.9183278679847717,1.369950294494629,2.1846277713775635,0.1780040100812912
|
| 12 |
+
2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.4336012005805969,0.8201461434364319,1.8264375925064087,2.4172654151916504,0.8108321034312248
|
| 13 |
+
2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.5711851119995117,0.36292704939842224,2.197443723678589,1.469553828239441,0.402426787674427
|
| 14 |
+
2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.04121549054980278,0.7947681546211243,0.7683377861976624,2.3646626472473145,0.23432962172105912
|
| 15 |
+
2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.11072992533445358,0.8124863505363464,0.9557890892028809,2.40138840675354,0.4099785781502724
|
| 16 |
+
2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.29892000555992126,0.8088288307189941,1.4632588624954224,2.3938071727752686,0.6867138158380985
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h1n1.csv
ADDED
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| 1 |
+
season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
|
| 2 |
+
2009-10,0.77142745,646,0.5,H1N1
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| 3 |
+
2010-11,0.2480433,134,0.0,H1N1
|
| 4 |
+
2011-12,0.47168618,42,0.4273015856742859,H1N1
|
| 5 |
+
2012-13,0.33353552,34,0.163345068693161,H1N1
|
| 6 |
+
2013-14,0.503785,112,0.4886309802532196,H1N1
|
| 7 |
+
2014-15,1.3685952,140,1.0,H1N1
|
| 8 |
+
2015-16,1.6669157,1524,1.0,H1N1
|
| 9 |
+
2016-17,0.22882786,548,0.0,H1N1
|
| 10 |
+
2017-18,0.5731004,1146,0.23939603567123413,H1N1
|
| 11 |
+
2018-19,0.2553039,2432,0.01841057650744915,H1N1
|
| 12 |
+
2019-20,0.43235964,2032,0.14152944087982178,H1N1
|
| 13 |
+
2020-21,0.304545,12,0.05265124887228012,H1N1
|
| 14 |
+
2021-22,0.5453064,105,0.22006897628307343,H1N1
|
| 15 |
+
2022-23,0.3680109,2158,0.09678341448307037,H1N1
|
| 16 |
+
2023-24,0.2231212,6766,0.0,H1N1
|
| 17 |
+
2024-25,0.5080013,6155,0.19731348752975464,H1N1
|
| 18 |
+
2025-26,0.5233383,89,0.20793618261814117,H1N1
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h1n1_lag2.csv
ADDED
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| 1 |
+
season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,0.78328806,134,0.5,H1N1
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,0.62475044,42,0.0,H1N1
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,0.31426397,34,0.0,H1N1
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,0.7889004,112,1.0,H1N1
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,1.5993526,140,1.0,H1N1
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.6321328,1524,0.24735169112682343,H1N1
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,1.6156839,548,1.0,H1N1
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.6795655,1146,0.2806945741176605,H1N1
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.6634914,2432,0.26834338903427124,H1N1
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,0.5978635,2032,0.21791546046733856,H1N1
|
| 12 |
+
2020-21,0.62996894,12,0.24258500337600708,H1N1
|
| 13 |
+
2021-22,0.63506126,105,0.24649789929389954,H1N1
|
| 14 |
+
2022-23,0.8287318,2158,0.39531269669532776,H1N1
|
| 15 |
+
2023-24,0.42143476,6766,0.08234912157058716,H1N1
|
| 16 |
+
2024-25,0.55310786,6155,0.18352560698986053,H1N1
|
| 17 |
+
2025-26,0.81103903,89,0.381717711687088,H1N1
|
results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h3n2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
|
| 2 |
+
2009-10,0.8477036,7,0.5,H3N2
|
| 3 |
+
2010-11,0.63348585,143,0.0,H3N2
|
| 4 |
+
2011-12,0.3519109,73,0.0,H3N2
|
| 5 |
+
2012-13,0.87250245,1091,1.0,H3N2
|
| 6 |
+
2013-14,0.4933025,86,0.2715979516506195,H3N2
|
| 7 |
+
2014-15,0.4262904,1432,0.14287497103214264,H3N2
|
| 8 |
+
2015-16,0.4348302,1238,0.1592789888381958,H3N2
|
| 9 |
+
2016-17,0.536437,2591,0.3544546365737915,H3N2
|
| 10 |
+
2017-18,0.7152299,2414,0.6978965401649475,H3N2
|
| 11 |
+
2018-19,1.0809436,3758,1.0,H3N2
|
| 12 |
+
2019-20,1.0485967,929,0.9556304812431335,H3N2
|
| 13 |
+
2020-21,1.0847083,82,1.0,H3N2
|
| 14 |
+
2021-22,0.13375942,5129,0.0,H3N2
|
| 15 |
+
2022-23,0.72480536,3827,0.6215327978134155,H3N2
|
| 16 |
+
2023-24,0.9766187,5038,0.8863349556922913,H3N2
|
| 17 |
+
2024-25,0.3138974,6957,0.18942971527576447,H3N2
|
| 18 |
+
2025-26,1.1456091,520,1.0,H3N2
|
results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h3n2_lag2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,0.8495583,143,0.5,H3N2
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,0.6389322,73,0.0,H3N2
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,1.1452712,1091,1.0,H3N2
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,1.1064202,86,0.9232707023620605,H3N2
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,0.8224489,1432,0.3624384105205536,H3N2
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.4179311,1238,0.0,H3N2
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,0.5691956,2591,0.20796944200992584,H3N2
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.916552,2414,0.6855401992797852,H3N2
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,1.0503104,3758,0.8694409728050232,H3N2
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,1.1382278,929,0.9903162717819214,H3N2
|
| 12 |
+
2020-21,1.3877254,82,1.0,H3N2
|
| 13 |
+
2021-22,1.1520467,5129,0.7569807767868042,H3N2
|
| 14 |
+
2022-23,0.7036079,3827,0.29457464814186096,H3N2
|
| 15 |
+
2023-24,0.9972088,5038,0.5973201394081116,H3N2
|
| 16 |
+
2024-25,1.0820384,6957,0.6847919821739197,H3N2
|
| 17 |
+
2025-26,1.126703,520,0.7308477163314819,H3N2
|
results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
|
| 2 |
+
2009-10,1.450825,646,0.5,H1N1
|
| 3 |
+
2010-11,0.4765356,134,0.0,H1N1
|
| 4 |
+
2011-12,1.2336639,42,0.7771082520484924,H1N1
|
| 5 |
+
2012-13,1.3156829,34,0.8612916469573975,H1N1
|
| 6 |
+
2013-14,0.8869691,112,0.4212644696235657,H1N1
|
| 7 |
+
2014-15,3.229831,140,1.0,H1N1
|
| 8 |
+
2015-16,3.2830172,1524,1.0,H1N1
|
| 9 |
+
2016-17,0.47321114,548,0.0,H1N1
|
| 10 |
+
2017-18,0.8554824,1146,0.13604898750782013,H1N1
|
| 11 |
+
2018-19,0.55094564,2432,0.027665432542562485,H1N1
|
| 12 |
+
2019-20,1.0523629,2032,0.20611804723739624,H1N1
|
| 13 |
+
2020-21,1.0806491,12,0.21618501842021942,H1N1
|
| 14 |
+
2021-22,1.5635442,105,0.38804563879966736,H1N1
|
| 15 |
+
2022-23,0.7888527,2158,0.112335704267025,H1N1
|
| 16 |
+
2023-24,0.48950127,6766,0.005797598510980606,H1N1
|
| 17 |
+
2024-25,0.92285734,6155,0.16002748906612396,H1N1
|
| 18 |
+
2025-26,0.9353826,89,0.16448518633842468,H1N1
|
results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1_lag2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,1.6838396,134,0.5,H1N1
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,1.39849,42,0.0,H1N1
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,0.6571969,34,0.0,H1N1
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,1.6866796,112,1.0,H1N1
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,3.2755883,140,1.0,H1N1
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,1.743154,1524,0.4147420823574066,H1N1
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,3.353778,548,1.0,H1N1
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,1.0407152,1146,0.14222393929958344,H1N1
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.9158264,2432,0.09591016173362732,H1N1
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,1.3699503,2032,0.26431745290756226,H1N1
|
| 12 |
+
2020-21,1.6949286,12,0.3848324120044708,H1N1
|
| 13 |
+
2021-22,1.8264376,105,0.4336012005805969,H1N1
|
| 14 |
+
2022-23,2.1974437,2158,0.5711851119995117,H1N1
|
| 15 |
+
2023-24,0.7683378,6766,0.04121549054980278,H1N1
|
| 16 |
+
2024-25,0.9557891,6155,0.11072992533445358,H1N1
|
| 17 |
+
2025-26,1.4632589,89,0.29892000555992126,H1N1
|
results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
|
| 2 |
+
2009-10,1.4048959,7,0.5,H3N2
|
| 3 |
+
2010-11,1.8256954,143,1.0,H3N2
|
| 4 |
+
2011-12,0.69628763,73,0.0,H3N2
|
| 5 |
+
2012-13,1.591805,1091,0.792908787727356,H3N2
|
| 6 |
+
2013-14,0.6546976,86,0.0,H3N2
|
| 7 |
+
2014-15,0.66254073,1432,0.006697823293507099,H3N2
|
| 8 |
+
2015-16,0.89745927,1238,0.20731179416179657,H3N2
|
| 9 |
+
2016-17,0.8643776,2591,0.17906098067760468,H3N2
|
| 10 |
+
2017-18,1.2708418,2414,0.5261702537536621,H3N2
|
| 11 |
+
2018-19,2.7669466,3758,1.0,H3N2
|
| 12 |
+
2019-20,2.5847838,929,0.9137588739395142,H3N2
|
| 13 |
+
2020-21,2.1798487,82,0.7220507860183716,H3N2
|
| 14 |
+
2021-22,0.44398916,5129,0.0,H3N2
|
| 15 |
+
2022-23,1.6075354,3827,0.5008900165557861,H3N2
|
| 16 |
+
2023-24,2.3582237,5038,0.8240506052970886,H3N2
|
| 17 |
+
2024-25,0.5509789,6957,0.046057555824518204,H3N2
|
| 18 |
+
2025-26,2.224057,520,0.7662937641143799,H3N2
|
results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2_lag2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,1.9789417,143,0.5,H3N2
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,1.7089305,73,0.0,H3N2
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,1.8436354,1091,0.4988865554332733,H3N2
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,1.8113375,86,0.37926939129829407,H3N2
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,1.0838729,1432,0.0,H3N2
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.71728826,1238,0.0,H3N2
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,1.122984,2591,0.3215588331222534,H3N2
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,1.4978067,2414,0.6186472177505493,H3N2
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,2.3151267,3758,1.0,H3N2
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,2.1846278,929,0.9183278679847717,H3N2
|
| 12 |
+
2020-21,2.7900617,82,1.0,H3N2
|
| 13 |
+
2021-22,2.4172654,5129,0.8201461434364319,H3N2
|
| 14 |
+
2022-23,1.4695538,3827,0.36292704939842224,H3N2
|
| 15 |
+
2023-24,2.3646626,5038,0.7947681546211243,H3N2
|
| 16 |
+
2024-25,2.4013884,6957,0.8124863505363464,H3N2
|
| 17 |
+
2025-26,2.3938072,520,0.8088288307189941,H3N2
|
results_new/full_model_comparison.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
Model,Split,RMSE,MAE,r,rho
|
| 2 |
+
DiffAE lag-1,Calib,22.324213840990897,18.376961803436277,0.6143446226711793,0.4637130167514838
|
| 3 |
+
DiffAE lag-1,Valid,13.815539711619138,11.275369262695312,0.8629234872587804,0.19999999999999998
|
| 4 |
+
DiffAE lag-1,All,19.49617295100787,15.645580056997444,0.7065065748221085,0.47476573641351993
|
| 5 |
+
VAE lag-1,Calib,20.994772065537852,17.29335889816284,0.7985789477306864,0.5182674893104819
|
| 6 |
+
VAE lag-1,Valid,13.73814430302318,10.965842285156251,0.9443176534160846,0.3
|
| 7 |
+
VAE lag-1,All,18.542937028015956,14.859698662391073,0.8191369382009438,0.6782367663050285
|
| 8 |
+
DiffAE lag-2,Calib,16.686148907477406,13.502629184722899,0.7987269916538151,0.5182674893104819
|
| 9 |
+
DiffAE lag-2,Valid,137.20136128205786,84.00085998535155,-0.9313381344843926,-0.7999999999999999
|
| 10 |
+
DiffAE lag-2,All,86.08961708643137,40.617333338810845,-0.1297512673642032,0.33911838315251425
|
| 11 |
+
DiffAE combined,Calib,22.680264651175186,18.51344871520996,0.5784229798821824,0.4364357804719847
|
| 12 |
+
DiffAE combined,Valid,27.531314148485635,22.103874969482423,-0.39412733063200855,-0.6
|
| 13 |
+
DiffAE combined,All,24.659249366097285,19.894381889930138,0.43911105663604255,0.31085851788980473
|
results_new/hamming_baseline_h3n2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,hamming_raw,hamming_norm
|
| 2 |
+
2009-10,0.005878894767783657,0.5
|
| 3 |
+
2010-11,0.007054673721340388,1.0
|
| 4 |
+
2011-12,0.007642563198118754,1.0
|
| 5 |
+
2012-13,0.00940623162845385,1.0
|
| 6 |
+
2013-14,0.006466784244562022,0.16666666666666657
|
| 7 |
+
2014-15,0.001763668430335097,0.0
|
| 8 |
+
2015-16,0.0,0.0
|
| 9 |
+
2016-17,0.006466784244562022,0.6875
|
| 10 |
+
2017-18,0.011757789535567314,1.0
|
| 11 |
+
2018-19,0.03233392122281011,1.0
|
| 12 |
+
2019-20,0.03409758965314521,1.0
|
| 13 |
+
2020-21,0.019400352733686066,0.5689655172413792
|
| 14 |
+
2021-22,0.0,0.0
|
| 15 |
+
2022-23,0.01352145796590241,0.39655172413793105
|
| 16 |
+
2023-24,0.01763668430335097,0.5172413793103448
|
| 17 |
+
2024-25,0.0005878894767783657,0.017241379310344827
|
| 18 |
+
2025-26,0.011169900058788948,0.3275862068965517
|
results_new/hamming_baseline_h3n2_lag2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,hamming_raw,hamming_norm
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,0.012933568489124045,0.5
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,0.0005878894767783657,0.0
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,0.017048794826572605,1.0
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,0.014697236919459141,0.857142857142857
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,0.00823045267489712,0.4642857142857143
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.001763668430335097,0.07142857142857141
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,0.006466784244562022,0.35714285714285715
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.008818342151675485,0.4999999999999999
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.030570252792475015,1.0
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,0.015285126396237508,0.49019607843137253
|
| 12 |
+
2020-21,0.05173427395649618,1.0
|
| 13 |
+
2021-22,0.019400352733686066,0.367816091954023
|
| 14 |
+
2022-23,0.01352145796590241,0.25287356321839083
|
| 15 |
+
2023-24,0.017048794826572605,0.32183908045977017
|
| 16 |
+
2024-25,0.018224573780129337,0.34482758620689663
|
| 17 |
+
2025-26,0.010582010582010581,0.1954022988505747
|
results_new/latent_diversity_diffae_h3n2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
|
| 2 |
+
2008-09,0.34799668,0.17536333,0.1524974229125625,237
|
| 3 |
+
2009-10,0.90725166,0.46393803,1.2114011051135116,7
|
| 4 |
+
2010-11,0.5297009,0.48136762,0.5159054334091772,143
|
| 5 |
+
2011-12,0.66944474,0.45950532,0.6684583268774811,73
|
| 6 |
+
2012-13,0.58300006,0.30534256,0.43352052959144505,1091
|
| 7 |
+
2013-14,0.5405846,0.13683708,0.31461442724265287,86
|
| 8 |
+
2014-15,0.5508623,0.30057478,0.39406968285190747,1432
|
| 9 |
+
2015-16,0.85173917,0.1739907,0.7563434720284813,1238
|
| 10 |
+
2016-17,0.77390456,0.28207383,0.6787559455497654,2591
|
| 11 |
+
2017-18,0.6438997,0.42345905,0.5941704898798633,2414
|
| 12 |
+
2018-19,0.8192407,0.33510438,0.78365876841969,3758
|
| 13 |
+
2019-20,0.8178969,0.25054035,0.7325143328680614,929
|
| 14 |
+
2020-21,0.45441753,0.1872265,0.24453113327090986,82
|
| 15 |
+
2021-22,0.5339787,0.2853063,0.3666044286012604,5129
|
| 16 |
+
2022-23,0.5957089,0.27209955,0.4290193957438692,3827
|
| 17 |
+
2023-24,0.4848465,0.24134924,0.2933838880111347,5038
|
| 18 |
+
2024-25,0.7395628,0.20150009,0.5876399885641852,6957
|
| 19 |
+
2025-26,0.2879503,0.28932673,0.1669463867971957,520
|
results_new/latent_diversity_vae_h3n2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
|
| 2 |
+
2008-09,1.118246,0.45252007,1.4614145552013458,237
|
| 3 |
+
2009-10,2.7893624,1.1113913,10.51835534333123,7
|
| 4 |
+
2010-11,2.154125,0.7790219,5.284081581164202,143
|
| 5 |
+
2011-12,2.0850751,0.9447484,5.312866482901703,73
|
| 6 |
+
2012-13,1.4296752,0.62001103,2.430612622182104,1091
|
| 7 |
+
2013-14,1.344636,0.482366,2.064731626802776,86
|
| 8 |
+
2014-15,1.2798865,0.57080245,1.9652968882986825,1432
|
| 9 |
+
2015-16,1.7440839,0.39557528,3.200894235629856,1238
|
| 10 |
+
2016-17,1.6630814,0.5196149,3.037011743619697,2591
|
| 11 |
+
2017-18,1.5632833,0.80583674,3.0945094018395687,2414
|
| 12 |
+
2018-19,1.9605919,0.80832297,4.498504110298732,3758
|
| 13 |
+
2019-20,1.7020276,0.62496156,3.291017156746192,929
|
| 14 |
+
2020-21,1.4102268,0.5317966,2.2995912191600194,82
|
| 15 |
+
2021-22,1.4071878,0.594125,2.333616857844206,5129
|
| 16 |
+
2022-23,1.6020731,0.57157767,2.894095524533272,3827
|
| 17 |
+
2023-24,1.0709511,0.47559032,1.3733950570133384,5038
|
| 18 |
+
2024-25,1.3575284,0.4634549,2.0579693733329956,6957
|
| 19 |
+
2025-26,1.112448,0.82856077,1.927760638537799,520
|
results_new/sirc_params_diffae.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
,0
|
| 2 |
+
beta,0.4839023947715759
|
| 3 |
+
sigma_inv,147.46920776367188
|
| 4 |
+
delta_min,0.011883399449288845
|
| 5 |
+
delta_max,0.043335456401109695
|
| 6 |
+
k_map,2.7173430919647217
|
| 7 |
+
S0_base,0.44527968764305115
|
| 8 |
+
gamma,0.2
|
| 9 |
+
mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
|
| 10 |
+
sigma,0.006781076640776149
|
| 11 |
+
calib_rmse,22.3242130279541
|
results_new/sirc_params_diffae_combined.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
,0
|
| 2 |
+
beta,0.5424919128417969
|
| 3 |
+
sigma_inv,150.30633544921875
|
| 4 |
+
delta_min,0.012005985714495182
|
| 5 |
+
delta_max,0.03574724495410919
|
| 6 |
+
k_map,2.2546401023864746
|
| 7 |
+
S0_base,0.46232783794403076
|
| 8 |
+
calib_rmse,22.68026351928711
|
results_new/sirc_params_diffae_lag2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
,0
|
| 2 |
+
beta,0.5816042423248291
|
| 3 |
+
sigma_inv,129.84266662597656
|
| 4 |
+
delta_min,0.010107772424817085
|
| 5 |
+
delta_max,0.05251959711313248
|
| 6 |
+
k_map,2.1105165481567383
|
| 7 |
+
S0_base,0.45782148838043213
|
| 8 |
+
calib_rmse,16.686147689819336
|
results_new/sirc_params_vae.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
,0
|
| 2 |
+
beta,0.4929124116897583
|
| 3 |
+
sigma_inv,139.94671630859375
|
| 4 |
+
delta_min,0.01088892575353384
|
| 5 |
+
delta_max,0.046870455145835876
|
| 6 |
+
k_map,2.833252191543579
|
| 7 |
+
S0_base,0.4437074661254883
|
| 8 |
+
gamma,0.2
|
| 9 |
+
mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
|
| 10 |
+
sigma,0.0071455767336113815
|
| 11 |
+
calib_rmse,20.994770050048828
|
results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim,delta_used,S0_used
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,0.0,21.5,36.693962,0.011883399449288845,0.44527968764305115
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,0.0,8.7,36.693962,0.011883399449288845,0.44527968764305115
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,0.0,44.0,36.693962,0.011883399449288845,0.44527968764305115
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,0.0,35.1,36.693962,0.011883399449288845,0.44527968764305115
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,0.0,64.1,36.693962,0.011883399449288845,0.44527968764305115
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.5695289642810822,31.4,57.393284,0.018695823038336543,0.5307090322852135
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,0.2637142496109009,62.0,65.05153,0.012724156334611448,0.4848368250846863
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.4429777984023094,102.9,64.42308,0.015324897407350782,0.5117263574033976
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.42957349978387355,63.6,64.97124,0.015049217786268106,0.5097157126106322
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,0.11433298283815385,66.0,52.4202,0.011970171123580113,0.4624296350687742
|
| 12 |
+
2021-22,0.0011003448814153672,17.5,36.855743,0.011883399736676329,0.44544473937526347
|
| 13 |
+
2022-23,0.43445285655558114,62.4,64.778656,0.015147887127652339,0.5104476161263883
|
| 14 |
+
2023-24,0.23931043803691865,83.5,63.80859,0.012529164832588709,0.48117625334858893
|
results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae_combined.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,drift_combined,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,0.0,21.5,32.590405
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,0.0,8.7,32.590405
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,0.0,44.0,32.590405
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,0.0,35.1,32.590405
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,0.0,64.1,32.590405
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.3521678179726005,31.4,69.9922
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,0.22122175723314286,62.0,61.21561
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.4415608502626419,102.9,74.5786
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.4671386353299022,63.6,75.94679
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,0.1353245297446847,66.0,52.43522
|
| 12 |
+
2021-22,0.3743579401448369,17.5,71.1548
|
| 13 |
+
2022-23,0.37067502289265397,62.4,70.96499
|
| 14 |
+
2023-24,0.22001605245471,83.5,61.111988
|
results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae_lag2.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,0.0,21.5,33.423096
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,0.0,8.7,33.423096
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,0.0,44.0,33.423096
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,0.0,35.1,33.423096
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,0.0,64.1,33.423096
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.13480667166411878,31.4,48.56613
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,0.17872926485538482,62.0,50.88374
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.4401439021229744,102.9,103.06174
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.5047037708759308,63.6,139.75497
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,0.15631607665121555,66.0,49.772545
|
| 12 |
+
2021-22,0.7476155354082584,17.5,312.562
|
| 13 |
+
2022-23,0.3068971892297268,62.4,61.3925
|
| 14 |
+
2023-24,0.2007216668725014,83.5,51.94764
|
results_new/sirc_simulation_vae.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
|
| 2 |
+
2010-11,0.0,21.5,40.21561
|
| 3 |
+
2011-12,0.0,8.7,40.21561
|
| 4 |
+
2012-13,0.0,44.0,40.21561
|
| 5 |
+
2013-14,0.0,35.1,40.21561
|
| 6 |
+
2014-15,0.0,64.1,40.21561
|
| 7 |
+
2015-16,0.5769260163009167,31.4,45.554726
|
| 8 |
+
2016-17,0.1332213696241379,62.0,57.593063
|
| 9 |
+
2017-18,0.32908903011679647,102.9,66.1304
|
| 10 |
+
2018-19,0.43438602492213246,63.6,59.98023
|
| 11 |
+
2019-20,0.14691279691457748,66.0,59.000103
|
| 12 |
+
2021-22,0.001940228193998337,17.5,40.492638
|
| 13 |
+
2022-23,0.3600470893606544,62.4,65.0134
|
| 14 |
+
2023-24,0.22527071311697366,83.5,64.89649
|