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results_weekly/sirc_params_tvae_weekly.csv

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 ,0
-delta_min,0.004564578644931316
-delta_max,0.022681402042508125
-S0_base,0.30520543456077576
-ihr,0.008558794856071472
+delta_min,0.0045648906379938126
+delta_max,0.022680621594190598
+S0_base,0.30520451068878174
+ihr,0.00855877622961998
 beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 sigma,0.008333333333333333
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-calib_rrmse_w,0.8918722867965698
-rrmse_calib_w,1.0064303874969482
-rrmse_valid_w,0.9694511294364929
+calib_rrmse_w,0.8926765322685242
+rrmse_calib_w,1.00642991065979
+rrmse_valid_w,0.9878720045089722

results_weekly/sirc_params_vae_weekly.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 ,0
-delta_min,0.005431071389466524
-delta_max,0.024448126554489136
-S0_base,0.40868204832077026
-ihr,0.012391581200063229
+delta_min,0.005430981982499361
+delta_max,0.02444760501384735
+S0_base,0.4086726903915405
+ihr,0.012391278520226479
 beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 sigma,0.008333333333333333
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-calib_rrmse_w,0.8455350399017334
-rrmse_calib_w,0.923054575920105
-rrmse_valid_w,0.9602364301681519
-rrmse_cum_w,5.448173928862726
+calib_rrmse_w,0.8461944460868835
+rrmse_calib_w,0.9226938486099243
+rrmse_valid_w,0.9782910943031311
+rrmse_cum_w,1.657530085958684

results_weekly/sirc_weekly_obs.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
-season,week_1,week_2,week_3,week_4,week_5,week_6,week_7,week_8,week_9,week_10,week_11,week_12,week_13,week_14,week_15,week_16,week_17,week_18,week_19,week_20,week_21,week_22,week_23,week_24,week_25,week_26,week_27,week_28,week_29,week_30,week_31,week_32,week_33,week_34,week_35,week_36,week_37,week_38,week_39,week_40,week_41,week_42,week_43,week_44,week_45,week_46,week_47,week_48,week_49,week_50,week_51,week_52
-2010-11,0.0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.8,0.9,1.0,1.2,1.5,1.8,1.6,2.0,2.1,1.8,1.4,1.2,0.7,0.5,0.4,0.3,0.2,0.1,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2011-12,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.8,1.1,1.1,0.8,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.4,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2012-13,0.0,0.0,0.1,0.0,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.5,0.8,1.4,1.9,3.1,5.0,5.4,4.9,3.8,3.1,2.6,2.0,1.7,1.3,1.2,1.0,0.9,0.7,0.6,0.6,0.4,0.2,0.2,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2013-14,0.0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.4,0.6,1.0,1.1,2.0,3.1,3.9,3.8,3.1,2.5,2.1,1.8,1.3,1.0,0.9,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.8,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2014-15,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.5,1.2,2.3,3.6,6.0,9.0,8.5,6.1,4.2,3.1,2.7,2.5,2.0,1.6,1.4,1.3,1.2,1.2,1.1,1.0,1.0,0.7,0.5,0.3,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2015-16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.4,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.8,1.2,2.0,2.5,3.3,4.2,3.4,3.0,2.6,1.9,1.4,1.2,0.8,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2016-17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.8,1.6,3.3,4.2,3.8,3.8,3.4,3.8,4.7,5.1,5.4,3.3,2.9,2.8,3.1,2.8,2.0,1.4,1.0,0.6,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2017-18,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.8,1.2,1.4,2.3,4.6,8.2,10.2,9.8,8.9,8.5,7.8,7.0,6.3,5.2,3.6,2.8,2.8,2.3,2.2,1.9,1.3,1.0,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2018-19,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.6,0.7,1.2,1.9,2.9,3.0,2.5,2.1,2.3,3.0,3.5,3.8,4.6,4.6,5.2,5.5,4.8,3.6,2.7,1.8,1.1,0.8,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2019-20,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.9,1.3,1.7,2.4,4.5,5.3,4.5,4.2,4.6,5.3,6.0,5.0,5.0,4.4,4.0,2.8,1.3,0.3,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2021-22,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.7,1.0,0.6,0.4,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.7,0.9,1.1,1.1,1.2,1.2,1.1,1.0,0.8,0.6,0.5,0.3,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2022-23,0.4,0.6,0.9,1.7,2.5,3.2,3.9,6.9,8.7,7.4,6.4,5.6,5.2,3.0,1.3,0.8,0.5,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2023-24,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.5,0.8,0.9,1.4,2.1,2.9,4.1,6.7,8.9,6.9,5.4,4.2,3.9,3.5,3.5,3.4,3.3,3.3,2.7,2.1,1.9,1.7,1.7,1.3,0.9,0.7,0.5,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.0
-2024-25,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,1.2,2.1,3.8,7.7,10.1,8.4,9.2,10.9,13.4,13.5,10.6,8.4,6.7,4.8,3.8,2.6,2.0,1.6,1.1,0.8,1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
-2025-26,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.4,0.7,1.2,1.8,2.9,4.6,8.2,13.3,12.6,7.4,4.3,3.5,3.4,3.4,2.9,2.9,2.3,1.4,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0
+season,week_1,week_2,week_3,week_4,week_5,week_6,week_7,week_8,week_9,week_10,week_11,week_12,week_13,week_14,week_15,week_16,week_17,week_18,week_19,week_20,week_21,week_22,week_23,week_24,week_25,week_26,week_27,week_28,week_29,week_30
+2010-11,0.0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.8,0.9,1.0,1.2,1.5,1.8,1.6,2.0,2.1,1.8,1.4,1.2,0.7,0.5,0.4,0.3,0.2,0.1
+2011-12,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.8,1.1,1.1,0.8,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.4
+2012-13,0.0,0.0,0.1,0.0,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.5,0.8,1.4,1.9,3.1,5.0,5.4,4.9,3.8,3.1,2.6,2.0,1.7,1.3,1.2,1.0,0.9,0.7,0.6,0.6,0.4,0.2,0.2
+2013-14,0.0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.4,0.6,1.0,1.1,2.0,3.1,3.9,3.8,3.1,2.5,2.1,1.8,1.3,1.0,0.9,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.8
+2014-15,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.5,1.2,2.3,3.6,6.0,9.0,8.5,6.1,4.2,3.1,2.7,2.5,2.0,1.6,1.4,1.3,1.2,1.2,1.1,1.0,1.0,0.7,0.5
+2015-16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.4,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.8,1.2,2.0,2.5,3.3,4.2,3.4,3.0,2.6,1.9,1.4,1.2,0.8
+2016-17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.8,1.6,3.3,4.2,3.8,3.8,3.4,3.8,4.7,5.1,5.4,3.3,2.9,2.8,3.1,2.8,2.0,1.4,1.0,0.6
+2017-18,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.8,1.2,1.4,2.3,4.6,8.2,10.2,9.8,8.9,8.5,7.8,7.0,6.3,5.2,3.6,2.8,2.8,2.3,2.2,1.9,1.3,1.0,1.0
+2018-19,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.6,0.7,1.2,1.9,2.9,3.0,2.5,2.1,2.3,3.0,3.5,3.8,4.6,4.6,5.2,5.5,4.8,3.6,2.7,1.8,1.1,0.8
+2019-20,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.9,1.3,1.7,2.4,4.5,5.3,4.5,4.2,4.6,5.3,6.0,5.0,5.0,4.4,4.0,2.8,1.3,0.3,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.0
+2021-22,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.7,1.0,0.6,0.4,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.6,0.7,0.9,1.1,1.1,1.2,1.2
+2022-23,0.4,0.6,0.9,1.7,2.5,3.2,3.9,6.9,8.7,7.4,6.4,5.6,5.2,3.0,1.3,0.8,0.5,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2
+2023-24,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.5,0.8,0.9,1.4,2.1,2.9,4.1,6.7,8.9,6.9,5.4,4.2,3.9,3.5,3.5,3.4,3.3,3.3,2.7,2.1,1.9,1.7,1.7,1.3,0.9,0.7
+2024-25,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,1.2,2.1,3.8,7.7,10.1,8.4,9.2,10.9,13.4,13.5,10.6,8.4,6.7,4.8,3.8,2.6,2.0,1.6,1.1,0.8,1.0
+2025-26,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.4,0.7,1.2,1.8,2.9,4.6,8.2,13.3,12.6,7.4,4.3,3.5,3.4,3.4,2.9,2.9,2.3,1.4,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0

results_weekly/sirc_weekly_peak_timing.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,obs_peak,pred_peak,abs_err,split
-2010-11,21,52,31,Calib
-2011-12,24,52,28,Calib
-2012-13,14,51,37,Calib
-2013-14,14,44,30,Calib
+2010-11,21,30,9,Calib
+2011-12,24,1,23,Calib
+2012-13,14,30,16,Calib
+2013-14,14,30,16,Calib
 2014-15,13,1,12,Calib
-2015-16,23,44,21,Calib
+2015-16,23,30,7,Calib
 2016-17,21,1,20,Calib
-2017-18,14,52,38,Calib
-2018-19,24,52,28,Valid
+2017-18,14,1,13,Calib
+2018-19,24,1,23,Valid
 2019-20,19,1,18,Valid
 2021-22,29,1,28,Valid
-2022-23,9,52,43,Valid
-2023-24,13,52,39,Valid
-2024-25,19,52,33,Valid
+2022-23,9,1,8,Valid
+2023-24,13,1,12,Valid
+2024-25,19,1,18,Valid
 2025-26,13,28,15,Valid

results_weekly/sirc_weekly_preds_vae.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
-season,week_1,week_2,week_3,week_4,week_5,week_6,week_7,week_8,week_9,week_10,week_11,week_12,week_13,week_14,week_15,week_16,week_17,week_18,week_19,week_20,week_21,week_22,week_23,week_24,week_25,week_26,week_27,week_28,week_29,week_30,week_31,week_32,week_33,week_34,week_35,week_36,week_37,week_38,week_39,week_40,week_41,week_42,week_43,week_44,week_45,week_46,week_47,week_48,week_49,week_50,week_51,week_52
-2010-11,0.06801606,0.041246887,0.026632853,0.018260267,0.013249085,0.010136326,0.008148014,0.006853451,0.0060172835,0.0054865624,0.0051901503,0.005075051,0.005109907,0.0052921395,0.00562458,0.006117632,0.006796866,0.007702566,0.008889657,0.010428554,0.012415713,0.014997299,0.018343268,0.022683978,0.02836702,0.035827704,0.04562708,0.058588352,0.0758144,0.09872188,0.12937753,0.17047109,0.22573645,0.30026558,0.4009463,0.537208,0.7218158,0.97196925,1.3108549,1.769073,2.3867965,3.2153988,4.318512,5.771151,7.6549478,10.046572,12.996367,16.494576,20.430668,24.55795,28.486189,31.733612
-2011-12,0.06773518,0.03998688,0.024941025,0.016399026,0.0113376705,0.008221999,0.0062356163,0.0049320385,0.0040606176,0.0034660988,0.0030651905,0.0028019936,0.002634872,0.0025505358,0.0025374265,0.002586672,0.0026947206,0.0028685322,0.0031154102,0.003448139,0.0038817753,0.0044390764,0.005151309,0.0060668,0.0072367596,0.008733859,0.010650223,0.013141523,0.016373422,0.020568414,0.02604661,0.033278357,0.042806137,0.055406548,0.072203435,0.094615884,0.1246198,0.16499025,0.21935084,0.29285365,0.3923418,0.5273397,0.71062064,0.959687,1.2979327,1.7566221,2.3768692,3.211452,4.326169,5.79901,7.715374,10.156038
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