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results_weekly/sirc_params_tvae_weekly.csv

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 ,0
-delta_min,0.0030639804899692535
-delta_max,0.020073432475328445
-S0_base,0.6548731923103333
-ihr,0.008382285945117474
+S0_min,0.7483502626419067
+S0_max,0.785090446472168
+delta_fixed,0.002739726100116968
+ihr,0.011413762345910072
 beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 sigma,0.008333333333333333
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-calib_rrmse_w,6.9173455238342285
-rrmse_calib_w,7.144202709197998
-rrmse_valid_w,1.0018669366836548
+calib_rrmse_w,0.7368838787078857
+rrmse_calib_w,0.7610504627227783
+rrmse_valid_w,0.8661990165710449

results_weekly/sirc_params_vae_weekly.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 ,0
-delta_min,0.0011075935326516628
-delta_max,0.020414376631379128
-S0_base,0.9105170965194702
-ihr,0.008092175237834454
+S0_min,0.7325015068054199
+S0_max,0.8267562389373779
+delta_fixed,0.002739726100116968
+ihr,0.009469887241721153
 beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 sigma,0.008333333333333333
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-calib_rrmse_w,17.44268798828125
-rrmse_calib_w,18.014732360839844
-rrmse_valid_w,13.094040870666504
-rrmse_cum_w,6.741478539047073
+calib_rrmse_w,0.7424520254135132
+rrmse_calib_w,0.766801118850708
+rrmse_valid_w,0.9009588956832886
+rrmse_cum_w,1.1559973388402625

results_weekly/sirc_weekly_peak_timing.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,obs_peak,pred_peak,abs_err,split
-2010-11,21,26,5,Calib
-2011-12,24,26,2,Calib
-2012-13,14,26,12,Calib
-2013-14,14,26,12,Calib
-2014-15,13,30,17,Calib
-2015-16,23,25,2,Calib
-2016-17,21,30,9,Calib
-2017-18,14,27,13,Calib
-2018-19,24,30,6,Valid
-2019-20,19,30,11,Valid
-2021-22,29,30,1,Valid
-2022-23,9,30,21,Valid
-2023-24,13,30,17,Valid
-2024-25,19,29,10,Valid
-2025-26,13,13,0,Valid
+2010-11,21,30,9,Calib
+2011-12,24,30,6,Calib
+2012-13,14,30,16,Calib
+2013-14,14,30,16,Calib
+2014-15,13,1,12,Calib
+2015-16,23,30,7,Calib
+2016-17,21,1,20,Calib
+2017-18,14,30,16,Calib
+2018-19,24,1,23,Valid
+2019-20,19,1,18,Valid
+2021-22,29,1,28,Valid
+2022-23,9,1,8,Valid
+2023-24,13,1,12,Valid
+2024-25,19,1,18,Valid
+2025-26,13,22,9,Valid

results_weekly/sirc_weekly_preds_vae.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,week_1,week_2,week_3,week_4,week_5,week_6,week_7,week_8,week_9,week_10,week_11,week_12,week_13,week_14,week_15,week_16,week_17,week_18,week_19,week_20,week_21,week_22,week_23,week_24,week_25,week_26,week_27,week_28,week_29,week_30
-2010-11,0.14120331,0.17194371,0.2110009,0.2607671,0.32443774,0.40604228,0.5109785,0.64608514,0.8203508,1.045096,1.334814,1.7074579,2.1849077,2.7929661,3.56042,4.516934,5.688853,7.0918,8.720883,10.538391,12.462233,14.362539,16.069649,17.40084,18.199707,18.376638,17.930109,16.945768,15.566964,13.957543
-2011-12,0.14251922,0.17446753,0.21479991,0.26585618,0.33071324,0.41323692,0.51853263,0.65301013,0.8249936,1.0448496,1.3256968,1.6835831,2.1378043,2.710828,3.4273465,4.3124166,5.387911,6.6661944,8.142713,9.785029,11.524913,13.253981,14.8297205,16.095297,16.91122,17.18692,16.904083,16.11922,14.944562,13.519274
-2012-13,0.13890275,0.16717075,0.20310465,0.24888822,0.30744267,0.3824436,0.4788283,0.60284317,0.7627172,0.9688147,1.2344586,1.5761939,2.014338,2.5730865,3.2798824,4.16389,5.252572,6.565457,8.105881,9.848869,11.730196,13.639375,15.42268,16.902954,17.91412,18.340765,18.147676,17.387571,16.181152,14.683706
-2013-14,0.13783494,0.16579477,0.2020999,0.249248,0.31060812,0.39053246,0.49487466,0.6311936,0.8094594,1.0424625,1.3466021,1.7424871,2.2552989,2.9148972,3.7547016,4.8089433,6.107247,7.666082,9.475512,11.4853735,13.592758,15.639071,17.42612,18.751326,19.4563,19.46871,18.821878,17.637299,16.087784,14.352972
-2014-15,0.13566811,0.15814054,0.18451174,0.21546061,0.25179452,0.2944748,0.34456435,0.40335667,0.47234136,0.5531768,0.6478149,0.7584293,0.8874126,1.0374621,1.2113892,1.4121906,1.6428534,1.9061294,2.2045734,2.5397136,2.9121833,3.3210843,3.7630336,4.2326074,4.720995,5.216195,5.7035546,6.1653023,6.58273,6.9367247
-2015-16,0.13856782,0.16744708,0.20506382,0.2540852,0.31812027,0.40185577,0.51160717,0.65557635,0.8446017,1.0926648,1.4176853,1.8422592,2.3939734,3.1054235,4.012794,5.1524854,6.554476,8.2321005,10.167153,12.293857,14.487675,16.56543,18.308825,19.508598,20.01911,19.797466,18.91339,17.52143,15.814363,13.97779
-2016-17,0.13614784,0.15951447,0.18737872,0.22064719,0.26041213,0.30804008,0.3650813,0.4334771,0.5155252,0.6139114,0.731903,0.8732053,1.0421976,1.2438505,1.4836539,1.7676845,2.1021223,2.4932945,2.9465508,3.4661138,4.0534697,4.7062564,5.41724,6.1719046,6.949045,7.7190003,8.446343,9.091287,9.614737,9.982351
-2017-18,0.14249472,0.17398874,0.2132708,0.26235652,0.32387385,0.40103233,0.4980101,0.6199548,0.7734005,0.9663446,1.2086979,1.5123495,1.891398,2.361915,2.9414873,3.6480007,4.497231,5.4999237,6.6559997,7.94972,9.34268,10.770209,12.142116,13.349716,14.282269,14.847519,14.990529,14.7074375,14.042604,13.077953
-2018-19,0.13339132,0.15385543,0.17818543,0.20714642,0.2417282,0.2830512,0.33250126,0.3918,0.46293736,0.54835314,0.65098906,0.7742321,0.922197,1.0995705,1.3117932,1.5649371,1.8656572,2.2209604,2.6378016,3.1224735,3.6796205,4.3114667,5.0151415,5.782916,6.598611,7.4381924,8.268406,9.049366,9.736483,10.28672
-2019-20,0.13030116,0.14721079,0.16691844,0.18991552,0.21678679,0.24826352,0.28513426,0.3283873,0.37920824,0.43893668,0.50916076,0.59179854,0.6889759,0.80320996,0.93738735,1.0946877,1.2787385,1.4933827,1.7427412,2.0309627,2.3619127,2.739138,3.164687,3.639355,4.161316,4.7253633,5.322872,5.939876,6.5585804,7.156463
-2021-22,0.13057403,0.14726314,0.16623351,0.18780367,0.21232814,0.24023816,0.27199093,0.30810064,0.34916222,0.39586508,0.44892016,0.5091404,0.57744056,0.6548012,0.7422444,0.8409159,0.95197266,1.0765753,1.2159051,1.3710642,1.542955,1.7323129,1.9396981,2.164829,2.4071238,2.6653895,2.9373505,3.2197087,3.5084834,3.7983012
-2022-23,0.13333175,0.1538841,0.17846863,0.20791698,0.2432889,0.2858502,0.33711213,0.39899936,0.4737695,0.5641789,0.6736097,0.80598193,0.9660805,1.1594187,1.3924292,1.6723434,2.00714,2.405196,2.8748748,3.4235177,4.056556,4.7755675,5.5764303,6.4474874,7.3669014,8.302621,9.211688,10.043866,10.74602,11.269085
-2023-24,0.13577995,0.15902287,0.18701036,0.22077295,0.26157346,0.31101584,0.37095436,0.44376153,0.53227603,0.6399167,0.77089417,0.930103,1.1234617,1.3577572,1.6408185,1.9812329,2.3882856,2.8711429,3.4383254,4.095865,4.846506,5.6856904,6.6013904,7.569758,8.555423,9.510752,10.380075,11.104404,11.630501,11.918248
-2024-25,0.13984141,0.16781984,0.20204067,0.2439535,0.29541332,0.35864738,0.4364457,0.53226644,0.65026915,0.79563254,0.9744545,1.19415,1.4632723,1.7917211,2.1903715,2.6707764,3.244229,3.9203806,4.705381,5.5988073,6.5907545,7.6583858,8.763594,9.852242,10.857819,11.707179,12.332203,12.680144,12.7238865,12.467141
-2025-26,0.20319475,0.3451786,0.59219605,1.024465,1.7831633,3.1125467,5.420116,9.336377,15.6905575,25.184378,37.469208,49.892254,57.706684,57.3522,49.691257,38.76308,28.220089,19.753971,13.581362,9.301902,6.405986,4.463831,3.1607168,2.2811372,1.6817925,1.2686276,0.9802418,0.776505,0.6310822,0.52631986
+2010-11,0.12305278,0.11692161,0.11190612,0.10787026,0.10470766,0.10234237,0.1007042,0.09974508,0.09943601,0.09976289,0.10071792,0.10229993,0.10452905,0.107429795,0.11105263,0.11545015,0.120677486,0.12682645,0.13397336,0.14225797,0.15183575,0.16286081,0.17550668,0.1900181,0.20666273,0.2257839,0.24773458,0.27294144,0.30192745,0.33530888
+2011-12,0.121186316,0.11381254,0.10771249,0.10270959,0.0986646,0.09547489,0.09304698,0.09131372,0.09022964,0.08976469,0.08989329,0.09060271,0.09189653,0.09379052,0.09631477,0.099498846,0.1033887,0.108042754,0.11353236,0.11996795,0.12746279,0.13612929,0.14612643,0.15763414,0.17088813,0.18615736,0.20372054,0.22394061,0.24724907,0.2741561
+2012-13,0.12398078,0.1184486,0.11393979,0.11033898,0.10755487,0.10552351,0.10419011,0.10350881,0.10345958,0.104030095,0.105222486,0.10703865,0.10949897,0.11262902,0.11647421,0.121097185,0.12655813,0.13292934,0.14031394,0.14880778,0.15857475,0.16978149,0.18259713,0.19722079,0.21392584,0.2330106,0.2548429,0.27979574,0.3083454,0.34105346
+2013-14,0.13011648,0.12911369,0.12887564,0.12938388,0.13062619,0.1326156,0.13537346,0.13892165,0.14330716,0.14857715,0.15481234,0.1621063,0.17055517,0.18027098,0.19140452,0.20411985,0.218637,0.23517448,0.25398496,0.2753798,0.29972497,0.32745686,0.35902458,0.3949804,0.4359687,0.48275405,0.5361351,0.5970815,0.66671646,0.7462963
+2014-15,0.11032614,0.096315786,0.08478494,0.075241864,0.06730633,0.06068491,0.055134676,0.05047279,0.04655152,0.043246076,0.040463295,0.03812965,0.036177117,0.034556035,0.03322732,0.032160986,0.031328365,0.030706372,0.030282153,0.030044908,0.029988684,0.030107304,0.030396365,0.03086093,0.03150156,0.032328278,0.033355094,0.034595337,0.036063235,0.037774224
+2015-16,0.13074341,0.13024999,0.13052773,0.13156524,0.13335952,0.13593657,0.13932504,0.14355554,0.14868751,0.15478003,0.16193102,0.17025135,0.1798536,0.19087358,0.20348264,0.21788248,0.23432449,0.25306046,0.27439666,0.29869068,0.326391,0.3579843,0.3940059,0.43511012,0.48207584,0.5357594,0.5971283,0.6673043,0.74763423,0.83953625
+2016-17,0.11252455,0.099718556,0.089083284,0.08020976,0.07278223,0.06654829,0.06130112,0.056884687,0.053169686,0.050047025,0.04743507,0.045269657,0.043491974,0.042056486,0.04093084,0.04008957,0.039511338,0.039175205,0.039073892,0.03920034,0.039554775,0.04014006,0.040958513,0.042018067,0.04333504,0.044919576,0.046802215,0.049013603,0.0515846,0.054545753
+2017-18,0.11878289,0.10983903,0.10238526,0.09618787,0.09106579,0.086876296,0.08349169,0.08082677,0.07881194,0.07739035,0.07651495,0.07616196,0.07631641,0.07697335,0.07812981,0.079800226,0.08200092,0.08477069,0.08815804,0.09221271,0.09699156,0.10258259,0.10907342,0.116599776,0.12530223,0.13532428,0.14686728,0.16015233,0.17547669,0.193151
+2018-19,0.11225064,0.09924048,0.08841654,0.07936901,0.07177656,0.06538852,0.05999368,0.055432115,0.05157523,0.04830969,0.045552157,0.0432356,0.04130126,0.039699193,0.03839523,0.037361138,0.036573227,0.036008667,0.035655115,0.035502974,0.035547514,0.035786856,0.03621868,0.036843766,0.037671696,0.03870722,0.039967306,0.041470263,0.043234717,0.045278974
+2019-20,0.109386,0.09478445,0.08276582,0.07281735,0.06453816,0.0576209,0.051810987,0.04691494,0.042777315,0.03926693,0.03628389,0.03374971,0.031592015,0.029757168,0.028202675,0.026893582,0.02579649,0.024886975,0.024147073,0.023561899,0.023119157,0.022806175,0.022615124,0.022542251,0.022584144,0.02274047,0.023011781,0.023398295,0.023900347,0.024527086
+2021-22,0.106532276,0.09051308,0.07753025,0.06694162,0.058251165,0.051083818,0.045134887,0.040177707,0.036026854,0.032534875,0.029589819,0.027098471,0.024983713,0.023186794,0.021662228,0.020367358,0.019268777,0.018341957,0.01756683,0.01692576,0.016401386,0.01598345,0.015663687,0.0154354265,0.015294095,0.0152346175,0.015252037,0.015347177,0.015520811,0.01577371
+2022-23,0.11315241,0.10064534,0.09020064,0.08143928,0.0740684,0.067849614,0.06258849,0.05813673,0.054370686,0.051185243,0.04850168,0.04625728,0.044394705,0.04286838,0.041645993,0.040701643,0.040013056,0.039558634,0.039329436,0.039316207,0.03951718,0.03993247,0.040561963,0.04140886,0.042486385,0.043801263,0.045375437,0.047231946,0.049394272,0.051885787
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+2024-25,0.11595759,0.105210766,0.09623165,0.088715605,0.082421415,0.0771638,0.07277967,0.069149226,0.06617776,0.0637842,0.061901342,0.060484156,0.059498247,0.058915276,0.058709446,0.058874484,0.059404425,0.060307104,0.06159112,0.06326649,0.06536224,0.06789729,0.07091743,0.07447963,0.07864002,0.08345536,0.089006156,0.09539612,0.10274299,0.11118195
+2025-26,0.17356478,0.22067763,0.28293002,0.3655852,0.47599828,0.6241268,0.8237297,1.0935628,1.4590317,1.9542336,2.6239164,3.524948,4.7261767,6.303822,8.329521,10.846055,13.8287735,17.139427,20.490307,23.455986,25.562073,26.435446,25.944586,24.2439,21.694805,18.725039,15.706873,12.895606,10.428144,8.350039