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results_new/drift_merged_diffae.csv

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results_new/drift_merged_diffae_lag2.csv

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results_new/drift_merged_tvae.csv

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results_new/drift_merged_tvae_lag2.csv

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results_new/drift_merged_vae_lag2.csv

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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h1n1.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,15 +1,15 @@
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results_new/drift_scores_diffae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
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results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h1n1.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
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+2025-26,1.006772,89,0.36367014050483704

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
-2010-11,0.50560445,134,0.5
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+2024-25,0.53348166,6155,0.17963097989559174
+2025-26,0.9082987,89,0.32584071159362793

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
-2009-10,0.40871748,7,0.5
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-2022-23,0.023909347,3827,0.0019688101019710302
-2023-24,0.029089307,5038,0.010120192542672157
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+2024-25,0.19398417,6957,0.07253000140190125
+2025-26,0.13273856,520,0.04128657281398773

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
-2010-11,0.1397129,143,0.5
-2011-12,0.2801558,73,1.0
-2012-13,0.27353662,1091,0.9528692364692688
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-2021-22,0.69962215,5129,1.0
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-2025-26,0.22040188,520,0.29856252670288086
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+2024-25,0.24411495,6957,0.08645566552877426
+2025-26,0.12778516,520,0.03302031755447388

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2009-10,1.4508884,646,0.5,H1N1
-2010-11,0.47648832,134,0.0,H1N1
-2011-12,1.2336011,42,0.7770040035247803,H1N1
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 2014-15,3.2299583,140,1.0,H1N1
-2015-16,3.283144,1524,1.0,H1N1
-2016-17,0.4732436,548,0.0,H1N1
-2017-18,0.85535794,1146,0.13598857820034027,H1N1
-2018-19,0.55099064,2432,0.027668969705700874,H1N1
-2019-20,1.0523438,2032,0.20609280467033386,H1N1
-2020-21,1.080398,12,0.2160768359899521,H1N1
-2021-22,1.5634476,105,0.3879867196083069,H1N1
-2022-23,0.7888692,2158,0.11232626438140869,H1N1
-2023-24,0.4895367,6766,0.005798465106636286,H1N1
-2024-25,0.92283857,6155,0.1600038856267929,H1N1
-2025-26,0.9356745,89,0.16457200050354004,H1N1
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+2024-25,0.92283857,6155,0.16000346839427948,H1N1
+2025-26,0.9356745,89,0.16457156836986542,H1N1

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2010-11,1.6838974,134,0.5,H1N1
-2011-12,1.3985306,42,0.0,H1N1
-2012-13,0.6572085,34,0.0,H1N1
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+2013-14,1.6867096,112,1.0,H1N1
 2014-15,3.2757614,140,1.0,H1N1
-2015-16,1.7431368,1524,0.41470545530319214,H1N1
-2016-17,3.353836,548,1.0,H1N1
-2017-18,1.0407414,1146,0.14222688972949982,H1N1
-2018-19,0.915746,2432,0.0958743691444397,H1N1
-2019-20,1.3699945,2032,0.26432496309280396,H1N1
-2020-21,1.694672,12,0.38472625613212585,H1N1
-2021-22,1.8264662,105,0.43359997868537903,H1N1
-2022-23,2.197362,2158,0.5711405873298645,H1N1
-2023-24,0.7682978,6766,0.04119563475251198,H1N1
-2024-25,0.9557269,6155,0.11070064455270767,H1N1
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+2024-25,0.9557269,6155,0.11070052534341812,H1N1
 2025-26,1.4635142,89,0.2990052103996277,H1N1

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2009-10,1.4049138,7,0.5,H3N2
-2010-11,1.825857,143,1.0,H3N2
-2011-12,0.69624805,73,0.0,H3N2
-2012-13,1.591902,1091,0.7928884625434875,H3N2
-2013-14,0.654581,86,0.0,H3N2
-2014-15,0.66253525,1432,0.006791088730096817,H3N2
-2015-16,0.8975233,1238,0.20741674304008484,H3N2
-2016-17,0.864383,2591,0.17912256717681885,H3N2
-2017-18,1.2707253,2414,0.5260452628135681,H3N2
-2018-19,2.766827,3758,1.0,H3N2
-2019-20,2.5845807,929,0.913719117641449,H3N2
-2020-21,2.179455,82,0.7219206094741821,H3N2
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+2011-12,0.6962475,73,0.0,H3N2
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+2019-20,2.5845811,929,0.9137200117111206,H3N2
+2020-21,2.1794555,82,0.7219216227531433,H3N2
 2021-22,0.44372347,5129,0.0,H3N2
-2022-23,1.6073804,3827,0.5009061694145203,H3N2
-2023-24,2.3581033,5038,0.8240612745285034,H3N2
-2024-25,0.55099255,6957,0.046174898743629456,H3N2
-2025-26,2.223808,520,0.7662527561187744,H3N2
+2022-23,1.6073804,3827,0.5009064674377441,H3N2
+2023-24,2.3581033,5038,0.8240618109703064,H3N2
+2024-25,0.55099255,6957,0.04617492854595184,H3N2
+2025-26,2.223808,520,0.7662532329559326,H3N2

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2010-11,1.9789981,143,0.5,H3N2
+2010-11,1.978998,143,0.5,H3N2
 2011-12,1.7092272,73,0.0,H3N2
-2012-13,1.8436763,1091,0.49838268756866455,H3N2
-2013-14,1.811368,86,0.37862053513526917,H3N2
-2014-15,1.0837401,1432,0.0,H3N2
-2015-16,0.71728635,1238,0.0,H3N2
-2016-17,1.1230123,2591,0.3215678632259369,H3N2
-2017-18,1.4976802,2414,0.6185199022293091,H3N2
-2018-19,2.3151226,3758,1.0,H3N2
-2019-20,2.184429,929,0.9182058572769165,H3N2
+2012-13,1.8436772,1091,0.4983859956264496,H3N2
+2013-14,1.8113672,86,0.3786175847053528,H3N2
+2014-15,1.0837413,1432,0.0,H3N2
+2015-16,0.71728826,1238,0.0,H3N2
+2016-17,1.1230099,2591,0.32156500220298767,H3N2
+2017-18,1.4976804,2414,0.6185196042060852,H3N2
+2018-19,2.3151186,3758,1.0,H3N2
+2019-20,2.184429,929,0.9182080626487732,H3N2
 2020-21,2.789879,82,1.0,H3N2
-2021-22,2.4169564,5129,0.8200694918632507,H3N2
-2022-23,1.4693893,3827,0.36288025975227356,H3N2
-2023-24,2.3643763,5038,0.7947002649307251,H3N2
-2024-25,2.4012733,6957,0.8125025629997253,H3N2
-2025-26,2.3937602,520,0.8088775873184204,H3N2
+2021-22,2.416957,5129,0.8200695514678955,H3N2
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+2023-24,2.3643763,5038,0.7947000861167908,H3N2
+2024-25,2.4012733,6957,0.812502384185791,H3N2
+2025-26,2.3937602,520,0.8088774085044861,H3N2

results_new/latent_diversity_diffae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
-2008-09,0.3479869,0.17535543,0.1524878694887088,237
+2008-09,0.347987,0.1753554,0.15248786948870877,237
 2009-10,0.9072131,0.46394446,1.2113266381031922,7
-2010-11,0.5297071,0.48135176,0.5158967894301155,143
-2011-12,0.6694304,0.45950183,0.6684356466002415,73
-2012-13,0.58300686,0.3053392,0.4335263997504738,1091
-2013-14,0.54057443,0.13682966,0.3146012149692702,86
-2014-15,0.5508577,0.30058625,0.3940715170041662,1432
-2015-16,0.8517246,0.17398384,0.7563161179383423,1238
-2016-17,0.7739091,0.28207156,0.6787616335959384,2591
-2017-18,0.6439013,0.42344782,0.5941629999069,2414
-2018-19,0.81923133,0.33510625,0.7836446966697295,3758
-2019-20,0.81788504,0.2505409,0.7324951709220148,929
+2010-11,0.5297071,0.48135173,0.5158967894301156,143
+2011-12,0.6694304,0.45950186,0.6684356236475963,73
+2012-13,0.5830069,0.3053392,0.43352639922300734,1091
+2013-14,0.54057443,0.13682967,0.314601230369456,86
+2014-15,0.5508578,0.3005862,0.39407152253077615,1432
+2015-16,0.8517246,0.17398387,0.7563161218299403,1238
+2016-17,0.7739091,0.28207153,0.6787616304327753,2591
+2017-18,0.64390105,0.42344803,0.5941629975365846,2414
+2018-19,0.8192314,0.33510616,0.7836446935191879,3758
+2019-20,0.81788504,0.2505409,0.7324951699050217,929
 2020-21,0.4543805,0.1872162,0.24449315948622538,82
 2021-22,0.5339615,0.2853101,0.3665882131894259,5129
 2022-23,0.5956991,0.27208915,0.42900196133832713,3827

results_new/latent_diversity_tvae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,19 +1,19 @@
 season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
-2008-09,0.1899764,0.19351427,0.07385040583798541,237
-2009-10,0.5922931,0.4404251,0.6355828654668045,7
-2010-11,0.20078479,0.9103973,0.875258329948087,143
-2011-12,0.26957983,0.4062723,0.24103226877451583,73
-2012-13,0.4275964,0.62010306,0.5678870001493532,1091
-2013-14,0.13375627,0.32071406,0.12216881250179627,86
-2014-15,0.07714817,0.23228972,0.059952215957067914,1432
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+2025-26,0.27597228,0.4480527,0.27744549307598737,520

results_new/latent_diversity_vae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
-2008-09,1.1181064,0.4525268,1.461107117649001,237
-2009-10,2.789356,1.1115388,10.51869599741131,7
-2010-11,2.154007,0.7788693,5.283329682528248,143
-2011-12,2.0851161,0.9446519,5.312853754055158,73
-2012-13,1.4297533,0.6199536,2.4307650245629553,1091
-2013-14,1.3447422,0.4823158,2.0649712012284365,86
-2014-15,1.2799011,0.5707754,1.9653036164503788,1432
-2015-16,1.7439564,0.3955747,3.2004481696948806,1238
-2016-17,1.6629968,0.5196129,3.036727824554738,2591
-2017-18,1.5631881,0.8057993,3.094151298636868,2414
-2018-19,1.9605098,0.80830324,4.4981494967124025,3758
-2019-20,1.7020738,0.6248811,3.2910740769374645,929
+2008-09,1.1181062,0.45252678,1.4611071498365873,237
+2009-10,2.7893558,1.1115389,10.51869599741131,7
+2010-11,2.154007,0.7788695,5.283329738606205,143
+2011-12,2.085116,0.94465184,5.312853754055158,73
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+2018-19,1.9605098,0.8083032,4.498149503380878,3758
+2019-20,1.7020738,0.6248812,3.2910740821217215,929
 2020-21,1.409919,0.53167903,2.298585792477243,82
 2021-22,1.4070408,0.5941305,2.333209929302637,5129
 2022-23,1.6019987,0.5715492,2.8938246012376405,3827

results_new/sirc_params_diffae.csv

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.48389822244644165
-sigma_inv,147.46902465820312
-delta_min,0.011883496306836605
-delta_max,0.04333692789077759
-k_map,2.7173585891723633
-S0_base,0.4452793598175049
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+k_map,2.8775570392608643
+S0_base,0.34441810846328735
+beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-sigma,0.0067810850605254476
-calib_rmse,22.323917388916016
+sigma,0.008287716914575662
+calib_rmse,183.01434326171875

results_new/sirc_params_diffae_combined.csv

@@ -1,8 +1,11 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.5424662232398987
-sigma_inv,150.30841064453125
-delta_min,0.0120062455534935
-delta_max,0.0357445552945137
-k_map,2.2547366619110107
-S0_base,0.4623242914676666
-calib_rmse,22.680747985839844
+sigma_inv,121.69593048095703
+delta_min,0.0052040256559848785
+delta_max,0.022494088858366013
+k_map,2.8574392795562744
+S0_base,0.3535463809967041
+beta,0.3
+gamma,0.2
+mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
+sigma,0.008217201643866636
+calib_rmse,193.81369018554688

results_new/sirc_params_diffae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,8 +1,11 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.5816060304641724
-sigma_inv,129.8426971435547
-delta_min,0.010107808746397495
-delta_max,0.052520036697387695
-k_map,2.1105055809020996
-S0_base,0.4578218162059784
-calib_rmse,16.686077117919922
+sigma_inv,125.69410705566406
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+delta_max,0.02229289337992668
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+S0_base,0.3550183176994324
+beta,0.3
+gamma,0.2
+mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
+sigma,0.007955822459975365
+calib_rmse,295.9768981933594

results_new/sirc_params_tvae.csv

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.49641501903533936
-sigma_inv,139.9803924560547
-delta_min,0.010710853151977062
-delta_max,0.05030184984207153
-k_map,2.850681781768799
-S0_base,0.44433867931365967
+sigma_inv,116.19398498535156
+delta_min,0.0050865840166807175
+delta_max,0.021768905222415924
+k_map,2.9306821823120117
+S0_base,0.3508189022541046
+beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-sigma,0.007143857667879729
-calib_rmse,21.054658889770508
+sigma,0.00860629747853186
+calib_rmse,63.387779235839844

results_new/sirc_params_vae.csv

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 ,0
-beta,0.49291330575942993
-sigma_inv,139.94635009765625
-delta_min,0.010888866148889065
-delta_max,0.0468725860118866
-k_map,2.8331964015960693
-S0_base,0.4437076449394226
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+delta_min,0.003884353209286928
+delta_max,0.022361744195222855
+k_map,2.9007091522216797
+S0_base,0.3455941379070282
+beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-sigma,0.007145595432122295
-calib_rmse,20.994186401367188
+sigma,0.008991164482430798
+calib_rmse,55.91606140136719

results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim,delta_used,S0_used
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,36.69405,0.011883496306836605,0.4452793598175049
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,36.69405,0.011883496306836605,0.4452793598175049
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-2013-14,0.0,35.1,36.69405,0.011883496306836605,0.4452793598175049
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,36.69405,0.011883496306836605,0.4452793598175049
-2015-16,0.5695386230051518,31.4,57.39029,0.018696472162488542,0.5307101532682776
-2016-17,0.2637516996860504,62.0,65.05264,0.01272459705927206,0.48484211477041245
-2017-18,0.44296208325028413,102.9,64.42255,0.015324769484394068,0.5117236723050476
-2018-19,0.4295716662704944,63.6,64.97025,0.015049374832349936,0.509715109758079
-2019-20,0.11433117486536504,66.0,52.420242,0.01197026512866699,0.4624290360473096
-2021-22,0.0011000201851129531,17.5,36.855877,0.01188349659397594,0.44544436284527184
-2022-23,0.4344884437248111,62.4,64.77615,0.015148811187068706,0.5104526263762266
-2023-24,0.2393365252017975,83.5,63.810066,0.012529466912195381,0.4811798385977745
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,0.21017258,0.004767056088894606,0.34441810846328735
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+2023-24,0.31954142216528375,83.5,0.22812559,0.0054165263373097735,0.34441810846328735

results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae_combined.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_combined,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,32.590313
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,32.590313
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,32.590313
-2013-14,0.0,35.1,32.590313
-2014-15,0.0,64.1,32.590313
-2015-16,0.35217248085141184,31.4,69.9926
-2016-17,0.22124332040548322,62.0,61.218067
-2017-18,0.4415469862967729,102.9,74.576004
-2018-19,0.4671379212290049,63.6,75.94362
-2019-20,0.1353143843188882,66.0,52.433834
-2021-22,0.37432382266968484,17.5,71.15288
-2022-23,0.3706770570240915,62.4,70.96472
-2023-24,0.22002329033985735,83.5,61.11297
+2010-11,0.24999999999999997,21.5,0.25230765
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+2022-23,0.3930827740101837,62.4,0.31711856
+2023-24,0.29375606901615425,83.5,0.26238257

results_new/sirc_simulation_diffae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,33.4235
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,33.4235
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,33.4235
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-2017-18,0.4401318893432617,102.9,103.06214
-2018-19,0.5047041761875153,63.6,139.7638
-2019-20,0.15629759377241137,66.0,49.771606
-2021-22,0.7475476251542568,17.5,312.52707
-2022-23,0.30686567032337186,62.4,61.38915
-2023-24,0.2007100554779172,83.5,51.947327
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+2022-23,0.3254142638734391,62.4,0.40497705
+2023-24,0.26797071586702476,83.5,0.35555848

results_new/sirc_simulation_tvae.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,42.16406
-2011-12,0.0,8.7,42.16406
-2012-13,0.0,44.0,42.16406
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-2018-19,0.03282656908035278,63.6,46.84572
-2019-20,0.05073893850669265,66.0,49.341515
-2021-22,0.03537958092987538,17.5,47.205223
-2022-23,0.045249401607085016,62.4,48.583523
-2023-24,0.023330887354910373,83.5,45.50059
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,0.22939785
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+2021-22,0.0012868775128115318,17.5,0.22939785
+2022-23,0.14801942627217268,62.4,0.23135751
+2023-24,0.04788282349984223,83.5,0.22946824

results_new/sirc_simulation_vae.csv

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,40.215836
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-2012-13,0.0,44.0,40.215836
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+2023-24,0.3007662301517536,83.5,0.20564897