Upload folder using huggingface_hub

results_new/confound_analysis.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+Analysis,rho,p
+Uncapped drift vs hosp,-0.3107142857142856,0.2596673973372179
+Capped (n=500) drift vs hosp,-0.3382352941176471,0.2000655587786896
+Partial Spearman (control n_seq),-0.13928571428571426,0.6205460876279014

results_new/drift_capped_h1n1.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
+2009-10,1.8458424,644,0.5
+2010-11,2.157367,134,1.0
+2011-12,3.6496725,42,1.0
+2012-13,4.067254,34,1.0
+2013-14,3.8792794,112,0.9153805375099182
+2014-15,5.7052264,140,1.0
+2015-16,5.8047204,1524,1.0
+2016-17,1.5390643,548,0.0
+2017-18,2.7282953,1173,0.27879205346107483
+2018-19,1.4391053,2509,0.0
+2019-20,1.9879721,2032,0.12572498619556427
+2020-21,2.7959168,12,0.3107950687408447
+2021-22,2.9858384,105,0.35429903864860535
+2022-23,2.127456,2170,0.15767553448677063
+2023-24,1.1326946,6859,0.0
+2024-25,1.930023,6310,0.1706600934267044
+2025-26,2.7355633,357,0.3430778682231903

results_new/drift_capped_h3n2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
+2009-10,6.1183867,7,0.5
+2010-11,5.7967076,143,0.0
+2011-12,2.031127,73,0.0
+2012-13,3.9587595,1091,0.47161978483200073
+2013-14,2.089659,86,0.014320597052574158
+2014-15,1.687302,1432,0.0
+2015-16,2.0136113,1238,0.07364095747470856
+2016-17,2.132154,2591,0.10039347410202026
+2017-18,2.2625527,2572,0.12982165813446045
+2018-19,3.4414449,3863,0.3958721160888672
+2019-20,3.5783758,929,0.4267744719982147
+2020-21,3.4835033,82,0.4053637981414795
+2021-22,0.9996655,5132,0.0
+2022-23,2.3066998,3829,0.2553439140319824
+2023-24,3.4628842,5106,0.481217622756958
+2024-25,1.3729906,7078,0.07293327897787094
+2025-26,3.3067024,2621,0.45070573687553406

results_new/drift_capped_merged.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended,blend_method
+2009-10,0.988,0.004,29.3,False,0.5,0.5,1.8458423614501953,6.118386745452881,0.5,observed
+2010-11,0.255,0.414,21.5,False,1.0,0.0,2.157366991043091,5.796707630157471,0.3811659192825112,observed
+2011-12,0.199,0.57,8.7,False,1.0,0.0,3.649672508239746,2.0311269760131836,0.25877763328998704,observed
+2012-13,0.035,0.575,44.0,False,1.0,0.47161978483200073,4.067254066467285,3.9587595462799072,0.5019366824236072,observed
+2013-14,0.692,0.104,35.1,False,0.9153805375099182,0.014320597052574158,3.879279375076294,2.0896589756011963,0.7976541131285566,observed
+2014-15,0.004,0.708,64.1,False,1.0,0.0,5.705226421356201,1.6873019933700562,0.005617977528089888,observed
+2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,1.0,0.07364095747470856,5.804720401763916,2.013611316680908,0.7959094527197498,observed
+2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.0,0.10039347410202026,1.5390642881393433,2.1321539878845215,0.09725617803633213,observed
+2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.27879205346107483,0.12982165813446045,2.72829532623291,2.2625527381896973,0.15299951313577242,observed
+2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.0,0.3958721160888672,1.4391052722930908,3.4414448738098145,0.1768790305928981,observed
+2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.12572498619556427,0.4267744719982147,1.9879721403121948,3.578375816345215,0.14730370808001997,observed
+2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.35429903864860535,0.0,2.9858384132385254,0.9996654987335205,0.0017875834442411976,observed
+2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.15767553448677063,0.2553439140319824,2.127455949783325,2.306699752807617,0.22541161107486024,observed
+2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.0,0.481217622756958,1.1326946020126343,3.4628841876983643,0.1734696370418941,observed
+2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.1706600934267044,0.07293327897787094,1.930022954940796,1.372990608215332,0.12488665514788315,observed
+2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.3430778682231903,0.45070573687553406,2.735563278198242,3.3067023754119873,0.43770607047682875,observed

results_new/drift_merged_tvae.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended,blend_method
-2010-11,0.255,0.414,21.5,False,0.0,0.0,1.4526294469833374,3.4114742279052734,0.0,observed
-2011-12,0.199,0.57,8.7,False,1.0,0.0,5.021268367767334,2.755039691925049,0.25877763328998704,observed
-2012-13,0.035,0.575,44.0,False,0.743726909160614,1.0,4.106722354888916,4.184266567230225,0.9852958062633138,observed
-2013-14,0.692,0.104,35.1,False,1.0,0.28725412487983704,5.695188045501709,3.16559100151062,0.9068774233511345,observed
-2014-15,0.004,0.708,64.1,False,1.0,0.0,5.8980488777160645,2.381479263305664,0.005617977528089888,observed
-2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,1.0,0.3259689509868622,6.371811389923096,2.9691319465637207,0.8515010278282928,observed
-2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.0,0.31423836946487427,1.1765702962875366,2.947984218597412,0.30441842041909695,observed
-2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.6437966823577881,0.5219351053237915,4.521249294281006,3.3224172592163086,0.540895180958501,observed
-2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.33175134658813477,0.6962170600891113,2.9000985622406006,3.636610507965088,0.4945977292162307,observed
-2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.4889240264892578,0.9658123254776001,3.7166483402252197,4.122633457183838,0.5231065793887718,observed
-2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.4349692165851593,0.0,3.43634033203125,1.6766676902770996,0.0021945974600663942,observed
-2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.29706427454948425,0.1971943974494934,2.719890832901001,2.1843247413635254,0.2278013905374015,observed
-2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.16774727404117584,0.6883617043495178,2.048057794570923,3.4487853050231934,0.35541869751681315,observed
-2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.23357625305652618,0.0,2.3900551795959473,0.7852710485458374,0.12417344213937512,observed
-2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.6103256344795227,0.9363746643066406,4.3473591804504395,4.030554294586182,0.8969933342622336,observed
+2010-11,0.255,0.414,21.5,False,0.0,0.0,1.4526289701461792,3.4114739894866943,0.0,observed
+2011-12,0.199,0.57,8.7,False,1.0,0.0,5.021268367767334,2.755040168762207,0.25877763328998704,observed
+2012-13,0.035,0.575,44.0,False,0.7437268495559692,1.0,4.106721878051758,4.184267520904541,0.9852958028433753,observed
+2013-14,0.692,0.104,35.1,False,1.0,0.2872541844844818,5.695188045501709,3.1655917167663574,0.906877431138676,observed
+2014-15,0.004,0.708,64.1,False,1.0,0.0,5.898048400878906,2.381479263305664,0.005617977528089888,observed
+2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,1.0,0.3259683847427368,6.3718109130859375,2.9691312313079834,0.8515009030763683,observed
+2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.0,0.3142380714416504,1.176571249961853,2.947983980178833,0.3044181317090988,observed
+2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.6437963843345642,0.5219340324401855,4.521247863769531,3.322415828704834,0.5408942286330874,observed
+2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.33175116777420044,0.6962161660194397,2.9000980854034424,3.6366095542907715,0.49459723081994567,observed
+2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.4889238774776459,0.9658113121986389,3.7166478633880615,4.1226325035095215,0.5231063684279268,observed
+2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.4349691569805145,0.0,3.43634033203125,1.6766679286956787,0.002194597159336602,observed
+2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.2970642149448395,0.1971944123506546,2.71989107131958,2.1843249797821045,0.22780138260486393,observed
+2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.1677471399307251,0.6883614659309387,2.048057794570923,3.448784828186035,0.3554185258053015,observed
+2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.23357631266117096,0.0,2.3900561332702637,0.7852712273597717,0.1241734738263031,observed
+2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.6103256940841675,0.9363752007484436,4.347359657287598,4.0305562019348145,0.8969938131099946,observed

results_new/drift_merged_tvae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended,blend_method
-2010-11,0.255,0.414,21.5,False,0.5,0.5,3.7442734241485596,4.573352336883545,0.49999999999999994,observed
-2011-12,0.199,0.57,8.7,False,1.0,0.0,6.3511857986450195,3.726383686065674,0.25877763328998704,observed
-2012-13,0.035,0.575,44.0,False,0.07494012266397476,1.0,3.939635753631592,5.1373395919799805,0.9469227939233428,observed
-2013-14,0.692,0.104,35.1,False,1.0,0.949805498123169,7.693106174468994,5.066517353057861,0.9934419243779015,observed
-2014-15,0.004,0.708,64.1,False,0.8871649503707886,0.6146501302719116,7.247539520263672,4.5936279296875,0.6161811124072986,observed
-2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,0.36621105670928955,0.0,5.190379619598389,2.565631866455078,0.2855293646731943,observed
-2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.5565354824066162,0.20935410261154175,5.941938877105713,3.104029417037964,0.22020352073013783,observed
-2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.33123382925987244,0.4268960952758789,5.052260398864746,3.6634838581085205,0.41201229151101226,observed
-2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.24217887222766876,0.5065526366233826,4.700597286224365,3.8683371543884277,0.36030332014915795,observed
-2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.443330317735672,0.7445916533470154,5.494910717010498,4.480504035949707,0.4649242246588627,observed
-2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.12602299451828003,0.5933067798614502,4.241917133331299,4.0914435386657715,0.590949142195743,observed
-2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.30151471495628357,0.0,4.9349045753479,2.496411085128784,0.092404827807387,observed
-2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.07789771258831024,0.3119977116584778,4.051878452301025,3.3203747272491455,0.1622862302771557,observed
-2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.0,0.3773978352546692,3.3403048515319824,3.4930918216705322,0.17676618864554172,observed
-2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.36714839935302734,0.7133957743644714,4.93842887878418,4.380438327789307,0.6715748182967126,observed
+2010-11,0.255,0.414,21.5,False,0.5,0.5,3.7442727088928223,4.573352336883545,0.49999999999999994,observed
+2011-12,0.199,0.57,8.7,False,1.0,0.0,6.351186275482178,3.726383924484253,0.25877763328998704,observed
+2012-13,0.035,0.575,44.0,False,0.07494054734706879,1.0,3.93963623046875,5.137340545654297,0.9469228182904055,observed
+2013-14,0.692,0.104,35.1,False,1.0,0.9498048424720764,7.693106174468994,5.066517353057861,0.9934418387149446,observed
+2014-15,0.004,0.708,64.1,False,0.8871648907661438,0.6146500110626221,7.247539043426514,4.593628406524658,0.6161809935328666,observed
+2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,0.3662106692790985,0.0,5.190377712249756,2.5656323432922363,0.2855290625995832,observed
+2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.5565356612205505,0.20935377478599548,5.941939353942871,3.1040291786193848,0.22020320873707533,observed
+2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.3312337100505829,0.4268955588340759,5.05225944519043,3.663483142852783,0.41201181998515907,observed
+2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.24217888712882996,0.5065516829490662,4.700596809387207,3.868335485458374,0.3603029022825526,observed
+2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.4433302879333496,0.7445909976959229,5.49491024017334,4.480503082275391,0.4649241499967508,observed
+2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.12602302432060242,0.5933068990707397,4.241916656494141,4.091444492340088,0.5909492609539378,observed
+2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.30151495337486267,0.0,4.934905052185059,2.4964122772216797,0.09240490087522302,observed
+2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.07789787650108337,0.3119967579841614,4.051878452301025,3.320373296737671,0.16228599132141858,observed
+2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.0,0.3773978054523468,3.3403046131134033,3.4930927753448486,0.17676617468668332,observed
+2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.3671487867832184,0.7133959531784058,4.938430309295654,4.380439758300781,0.6715750223080403,observed

results_new/drift_merged_vae.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended,blend_method
-2010-11,0.255,0.414,21.5,False,1.0,0.0,2.1451635360717773,5.796708583831787,0.3811659192825112,observed
-2011-12,0.199,0.57,8.7,False,1.0,0.0,3.649672508239746,2.0311272144317627,0.25877763328998704,observed
-2012-13,0.035,0.575,44.0,False,1.0,0.4682730436325073,4.067254066467285,3.945080518722534,0.498781967358511,observed
-2013-14,0.692,0.104,35.1,False,0.9113273024559021,0.01212503481656313,3.8792800903320312,2.0806853771209717,0.7938435890959884,observed
-2014-15,0.004,0.708,64.1,False,1.0,0.0,5.705226421356201,1.7202483415603638,0.005617977528089888,observed
-2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,1.0,0.058091096580028534,5.822989463806152,1.9757410287857056,0.7924835892322237,observed
-2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.0,0.09289420396089554,1.5407356023788452,2.128809928894043,0.08999126008711755,observed
-2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.27991342544555664,0.13389603793621063,2.7393958568573,2.3091416358947754,0.15661444334784863,observed
-2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.0,0.3873178958892822,1.4092766046524048,3.4237260818481445,0.17305693220584953,observed
-2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.1260850876569748,0.4444291591644287,1.9657800197601318,3.6749093532562256,0.1489034564188727,observed
-2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.35719627141952515,0.0,2.9858384132385254,0.9805057644844055,0.0018022011676060805,observed
-2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.1524183452129364,0.24512304365634918,2.08200740814209,2.2399187088012695,0.21671195367740292,observed
-2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.0,0.4770795404911041,1.116445541381836,3.4316835403442383,0.17197793849479057,observed
-2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.16587093472480774,0.0686461329460144,1.8971244096755981,1.3332014083862305,0.1203326299259517,observed
-2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.34451910853385925,0.45871075987815857,2.7379398345947266,3.3373069763183594,0.44491829709337377,observed
+2010-11,0.255,0.414,21.5,False,1.0,0.0,2.1451640129089355,5.796707630157471,0.3811659192825112,observed
+2011-12,0.199,0.57,8.7,False,1.0,0.0,3.649672508239746,2.0311269760131836,0.25877763328998704,observed
+2012-13,0.035,0.575,44.0,False,1.0,0.468272864818573,4.067254066467285,3.945079803466797,0.49878179880439255,observed
+2013-14,0.692,0.104,35.1,False,0.911327064037323,0.012125091627240181,3.879279375076294,2.0806853771209717,0.7938433892500759,observed
+2014-15,0.004,0.708,64.1,False,1.0,0.0,5.705226421356201,1.7202469110488892,0.005617977528089888,observed
+2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,1.0,0.05809161812067032,5.822988986968994,1.975741982460022,0.7924837041353121,observed
+2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.0,0.09289488196372986,1.5407360792160034,2.1288115978240967,0.0899919169023633,observed
+2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.2799133062362671,0.1338965892791748,2.7393956184387207,2.309142827987671,0.15661489036160783,observed
+2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.0,0.3873182535171509,1.4092754125595093,3.423726797103882,0.17305709199702488,observed
+2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.1260853260755539,0.4444297254085541,1.9657799005508423,3.6749110221862793,0.14890371833543675,observed
+2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.35719650983810425,0.0,2.9858384132385254,0.9805063009262085,0.0018022023705252486,observed
+2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.1524185985326767,0.2451225370168686,2.08200740814209,2.2399165630340576,0.21671167994164964,observed
+2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.0,0.4770791828632355,1.116445541381836,3.4316818714141846,0.17197780957686729,observed
+2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.16587115824222565,0.06864603608846664,1.8971253633499146,1.3332014083862305,0.12033270338564184,observed
+2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.34451940655708313,0.45871031284332275,2.737941026687622,3.3373048305511475,0.4449179400492285,observed

results_new/drift_merged_vae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 season,pct_h1n1,pct_h3n2,hosp_rate_overall,covid_excluded,drift_h1n1,drift_h3n2,drift_h1n1_raw,drift_h3n2_raw,drift_blended,blend_method
-2010-11,0.255,0.414,21.5,False,0.5,0.5,3.0683653354644775,3.8453657627105713,0.49999999999999994,observed
-2011-12,0.199,0.57,8.7,False,1.0,1.0,4.46656608581543,5.230806350708008,1.0,observed
-2012-13,0.035,0.575,44.0,False,0.21980707347393036,0.24608966708183289,3.375699758529663,4.18630838394165,0.24458164941580568,observed
-2013-14,0.692,0.104,35.1,False,1.0,0.3751671612262726,5.2658538818359375,4.365137577056885,0.91836354870293,observed
-2014-15,0.004,0.708,64.1,False,1.0,0.0,6.600241661071777,3.1048476696014404,0.005617977528089888,observed
-2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,0.06509318202733994,0.0,3.2982664108276367,2.1606388092041016,0.050752194856795795,observed
-2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.7658682465553284,0.0697803795337677,5.773317337036133,2.3748762607574463,0.09153312537819147,observed
-2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.0,0.24545562267303467,2.9352662563323975,2.914228677749634,0.2072659218328171,observed
-2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.0,0.3501112461090088,2.9142980575561523,3.235538959503174,0.1564326844316848,observed
-2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.0,0.5024794936180115,2.5310475826263428,3.7033350467681885,0.036016886780312014,observed
-2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.0425698384642601,0.5196999907493591,2.704272508621216,3.756204843521118,0.5172926741384354,observed
-2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.3439953029155731,0.05676886811852455,3.93083119392395,2.3349287509918213,0.14479478503935916,observed
-2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.0,0.368507981300354,2.2295303344726562,3.292020082473755,0.13283999325913964,observed
-2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.0,0.41953176259994507,2.005249261856079,3.448671579360962,0.1965009434685702,observed
-2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.2909316420555115,0.375789076089859,3.3420779705047607,3.3143742084503174,0.3655397015764612,observed
+2010-11,0.255,0.414,21.5,False,0.5,0.5,3.0683655738830566,3.8453657627105713,0.49999999999999994,observed
+2011-12,0.199,0.57,8.7,False,1.0,1.0,4.46656608581543,5.230806827545166,1.0,observed
+2012-13,0.035,0.575,44.0,False,0.21980643272399902,0.246088907122612,3.375699043273926,4.186307430267334,0.24458089629646207,observed
+2013-14,0.692,0.104,35.1,False,1.0,0.3751673698425293,5.2658538818359375,4.365138053894043,0.9183635759593254,observed
+2014-15,0.004,0.708,64.1,False,1.0,0.0,6.600241661071777,3.104846954345703,0.005617977528089888,observed
+2015-16,0.545,0.154,31.4,False,0.06509292125701904,0.0,3.2982656955718994,2.160639762878418,0.05075199153801914,observed
+2016-17,0.024,0.744,62.0,False,0.7658682465553284,0.06977992504835129,5.773317337036133,2.374875783920288,0.09153268509544432,observed
+2017-18,0.11,0.597,102.9,False,0.0,0.24545550346374512,2.9352657794952393,2.914229154586792,0.20726582117094178,observed
+2018-19,0.52,0.42,63.6,False,0.0,0.3501105010509491,2.9142966270446777,3.235537528991699,0.1564323515334028,observed
+2019-20,0.531,0.041,66.0,False,0.0,0.5024793148040771,2.5310473442077637,3.7033352851867676,0.03601687396322931,observed
+2021-22,0.005,0.986,17.5,False,0.04256989061832428,0.5196995139122009,2.704272508621216,3.756204128265381,0.5172921999702541,observed
+2022-23,0.289,0.654,62.4,False,0.34399521350860596,0.05676833540201187,3.930830717086792,2.334928035736084,0.14479438818335405,observed
+2023-24,0.479,0.27,83.5,False,0.0,0.3685068190097809,2.2295303344726562,3.2920172214508057,0.132839574275889,observed
+2024-25,0.496,0.437,126.2,False,0.0,0.41953128576278687,2.005248546600342,3.4486708641052246,0.19650072012683584,observed
+2025-26,0.111,0.808,78.2,False,0.29093196988105774,0.37578874826431274,3.342078924179077,3.3143739700317383,0.3655394529427226,observed

results_new/drift_pca_h1n1.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
+2009-10,0.30350992,644,0.5
+2010-11,0.62411284,134,1.0
+2011-12,0.8984759,42,1.0
+2012-13,1.4902445,34,1.0
+2013-14,1.0400623,112,0.6206547021865845
+2014-15,0.7084311,140,0.34120622277259827
+2015-16,1.0022672,1524,0.5888067483901978
+2016-17,0.271219,548,0.0
+2017-18,0.25665215,1173,0.0
+2018-19,0.22688574,2509,0.0
+2019-20,0.24909468,2032,0.01757928356528282
+2020-21,1.4562727,12,0.9731099605560303
+2021-22,1.5563365,105,1.0
+2022-23,0.59958065,2170,0.28033748269081116
+2023-24,0.1345362,6859,0.0
+2024-25,0.08507857,6310,0.0
+2025-26,0.28373465,357,0.13502465188503265

results_new/drift_pca_h3n2.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
+2009-10,4.215463,7,0.5
+2010-11,3.6891212,143,0.0
+2011-12,1.0237536,73,0.0
+2012-13,1.0025604,1091,0.0
+2013-14,0.5868975,86,0.0
+2014-15,0.53500336,1432,0.0
+2015-16,0.20095336,1238,0.0
+2016-17,0.18982214,2591,0.0
+2017-18,0.17168191,2572,0.0
+2018-19,0.12169265,3863,0.0
+2019-20,0.28936192,929,0.040957171469926834
+2020-21,0.990109,82,0.21213118731975555
+2021-22,0.8030129,5132,0.16642853617668152
+2022-23,0.108968265,3829,0.0
+2023-24,0.14528981,5106,0.00884490180760622
+2024-25,0.118754946,7078,0.002383219776675105
+2025-26,0.11436618,2621,0.0013144825352355838

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h1n1.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
-2009-10,2.914305,644,0.5
-2010-11,1.4526294,134,0.0
+2009-10,2.9143052,644,0.5
+2010-11,1.452629,134,0.0
 2011-12,5.0212684,42,1.0
-2012-13,4.1067224,34,0.743726909160614
+2012-13,4.106722,34,0.7437268495559692
 2013-14,5.695188,112,1.0
-2014-15,5.898049,140,1.0
-2015-16,6.3718114,1524,1.0
-2016-17,1.1765703,548,0.0
-2017-18,4.5212493,1173,0.6437966823577881
-2018-19,2.9000986,2509,0.33175134658813477
-2019-20,3.7166483,2032,0.4889240264892578
-2020-21,4.63557,12,0.6658015847206116
-2021-22,3.4363403,105,0.4349692165851593
-2022-23,2.7198908,2170,0.29706427454948425
-2023-24,2.0480578,6859,0.16774727404117584
-2024-25,2.3900552,6310,0.23357625305652618
-2025-26,4.347359,357,0.6103256344795227
+2014-15,5.8980484,140,1.0
+2015-16,6.371811,1524,1.0
+2016-17,1.1765712,548,0.0
+2017-18,4.521248,1173,0.6437963843345642
+2018-19,2.900098,2509,0.33175116777420044
+2019-20,3.7166479,2032,0.4889238774776459
+2020-21,4.635569,12,0.6658014059066772
+2021-22,3.4363403,105,0.4349691569805145
+2022-23,2.719891,2170,0.2970642149448395
+2023-24,2.0480578,6859,0.1677471399307251
+2024-25,2.3900561,6310,0.23357631266117096
+2025-26,4.3473597,357,0.6103256940841675

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
-2010-11,3.7442734,134,0.5
-2011-12,6.351186,42,1.0
-2012-13,3.9396358,34,0.07494012266397476
+2010-11,3.7442727,134,0.5
+2011-12,6.3511863,42,1.0
+2012-13,3.9396362,34,0.07494054734706879
 2013-14,7.693106,112,1.0
-2014-15,7.2475395,140,0.8871649503707886
-2015-16,5.1903796,1524,0.36621105670928955
-2016-17,5.941939,548,0.5565354824066162
-2017-18,5.0522604,1173,0.33123382925987244
-2018-19,4.7005973,2509,0.24217887222766876
-2019-20,5.4949107,2032,0.443330317735672
-2020-21,5.3348856,12,0.4028056561946869
-2021-22,4.241917,105,0.12602299451828003
-2022-23,4.9349046,2170,0.30151471495628357
-2023-24,4.0518785,6859,0.07789771258831024
-2024-25,3.3403049,6310,0.0
-2025-26,4.938429,357,0.36714839935302734
+2014-15,7.247539,140,0.8871648907661438
+2015-16,5.1903777,1524,0.3662106692790985
+2016-17,5.9419394,548,0.5565356612205505
+2017-18,5.0522594,1173,0.3312337100505829
+2018-19,4.700597,2509,0.24217888712882996
+2019-20,5.4949102,2032,0.4433302879333496
+2020-21,5.3348856,12,0.40280577540397644
+2021-22,4.2419167,105,0.12602302432060242
+2022-23,4.934905,2170,0.30151495337486267
+2023-24,4.0518785,6859,0.07789787650108337
+2024-25,3.3403046,6310,0.0
+2025-26,4.9384303,357,0.3671487867832184

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
 2009-10,3.6554613,7,0.5
-2010-11,3.4114742,143,0.0
-2011-12,2.7550397,73,0.0
-2012-13,4.1842666,1091,1.0
-2013-14,3.165591,86,0.28725412487983704
+2010-11,3.411474,143,0.0
+2011-12,2.7550402,73,0.0
+2012-13,4.1842675,1091,1.0
+2013-14,3.1655917,86,0.2872541844844818
 2014-15,2.3814793,1432,0.0
-2015-16,2.969132,1238,0.3259689509868622
-2016-17,2.9479842,2591,0.31423836946487427
-2017-18,3.3224173,2572,0.5219351053237915
-2018-19,3.6366105,3863,0.6962170600891113
-2019-20,4.1226335,929,0.9658123254776001
+2015-16,2.9691312,1238,0.3259683847427368
+2016-17,2.947984,2591,0.3142380714416504
+2017-18,3.3224158,2572,0.5219340324401855
+2018-19,3.6366096,3863,0.6962161660194397
+2019-20,4.1226325,929,0.9658113121986389
 2020-21,4.2510667,82,1.0
-2021-22,1.6766677,5132,0.0
-2022-23,2.1843247,3829,0.1971943974494934
-2023-24,3.4487853,5106,0.6883617043495178
-2024-25,0.78527105,7078,0.0
-2025-26,4.0305543,2621,0.9363746643066406
+2021-22,1.6766679,5132,0.0
+2022-23,2.184325,3829,0.1971944123506546
+2023-24,3.4487848,5106,0.6883614659309387
+2024-25,0.7852712,7078,0.0
+2025-26,4.030556,2621,0.9363752007484436

results_new/drift_scores_tvae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
 2010-11,4.5733523,143,0.5
-2011-12,3.7263837,73,0.0
-2012-13,5.1373396,1091,1.0
-2013-14,5.0665174,86,0.949805498123169
-2014-15,4.593628,1432,0.6146501302719116
-2015-16,2.5656319,1238,0.0
-2016-17,3.1040294,2591,0.20935410261154175
-2017-18,3.6634839,2572,0.4268960952758789
-2018-19,3.8683372,3863,0.5065526366233826
-2019-20,4.480504,929,0.7445916533470154
-2020-21,4.4564667,82,0.7352448105812073
-2021-22,4.0914435,5132,0.5933067798614502
-2022-23,2.496411,3829,0.0
-2023-24,3.3203747,5106,0.3119977116584778
-2024-25,3.4930918,7078,0.3773978352546692
-2025-26,4.3804383,2621,0.7133957743644714
+2011-12,3.726384,73,0.0
+2012-13,5.1373405,1091,1.0
+2013-14,5.0665174,86,0.9498048424720764
+2014-15,4.5936284,1432,0.6146500110626221
+2015-16,2.5656323,1238,0.0
+2016-17,3.1040292,2591,0.20935377478599548
+2017-18,3.6634831,2572,0.4268955588340759
+2018-19,3.8683355,3863,0.5065516829490662
+2019-20,4.480503,929,0.7445909976959229
+2020-21,4.4564657,82,0.7352441549301147
+2021-22,4.0914445,5132,0.5933068990707397
+2022-23,2.4964123,3829,0.0
+2023-24,3.3203733,5106,0.3119967579841614
+2024-25,3.4930928,7078,0.3773978054523468
+2025-26,4.3804398,2621,0.7133959531784058

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
-2009-10,1.9473892,644,0.5,H1N1
-2010-11,2.1451635,134,1.0,H1N1
+2009-10,1.9473889,644,0.5,H1N1
+2010-11,2.145164,134,1.0,H1N1
 2011-12,3.6496725,42,1.0,H1N1
 2012-13,4.067254,34,1.0,H1N1
-2013-14,3.87928,112,0.9113273024559021,H1N1
+2013-14,3.8792794,112,0.911327064037323,H1N1
 2014-15,5.7052264,140,1.0,H1N1
-2015-16,5.8229895,1524,1.0,H1N1
-2016-17,1.5407356,548,0.0,H1N1
-2017-18,2.7393959,1173,0.27991342544555664,H1N1
-2018-19,1.4092766,2509,0.0,H1N1
-2019-20,1.96578,2032,0.1260850876569748,H1N1
-2020-21,2.792158,12,0.3133147358894348,H1N1
-2021-22,2.9858384,105,0.35719627141952515,H1N1
-2022-23,2.0820074,2170,0.1524183452129364,H1N1
+2015-16,5.822989,1524,1.0,H1N1
+2016-17,1.5407361,548,0.0,H1N1
+2017-18,2.7393956,1173,0.2799133062362671,H1N1
+2018-19,1.4092754,2509,0.0,H1N1
+2019-20,1.9657799,2032,0.1260853260755539,H1N1
+2020-21,2.7921581,12,0.3133150041103363,H1N1
+2021-22,2.9858384,105,0.35719650983810425,H1N1
+2022-23,2.0820074,2170,0.1524185985326767,H1N1
 2023-24,1.1164455,6859,0.0,H1N1
-2024-25,1.8971244,6310,0.16587093472480774,H1N1
-2025-26,2.7379398,357,0.34451910853385925,H1N1
+2024-25,1.8971254,6310,0.16587115824222565,H1N1
+2025-26,2.737941,357,0.34451940655708313,H1N1

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h1n1_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
-2010-11,3.0683653,134,0.5
+2010-11,3.0683656,134,0.5
 2011-12,4.466566,42,1.0
-2012-13,3.3756998,34,0.21980707347393036
+2012-13,3.375699,34,0.21980643272399902
 2013-14,5.265854,112,1.0
 2014-15,6.6002417,140,1.0
-2015-16,3.2982664,1524,0.06509318202733994
+2015-16,3.2982657,1524,0.06509292125701904
 2016-17,5.7733173,548,0.7658682465553284
-2017-18,2.9352663,1173,0.0
-2018-19,2.914298,2509,0.0
-2019-20,2.5310476,2032,0.0
-2020-21,3.5731637,12,0.2560989260673523
-2021-22,2.7042725,105,0.0425698384642601
-2022-23,3.9308312,2170,0.3439953029155731
+2017-18,2.9352658,1173,0.0
+2018-19,2.9142966,2509,0.0
+2019-20,2.5310473,2032,0.0
+2020-21,3.5731637,12,0.2560989558696747
+2021-22,2.7042725,105,0.04256989061832428
+2022-23,3.9308307,2170,0.34399521350860596
 2023-24,2.2295303,6859,0.0
-2024-25,2.0052493,6310,0.0
-2025-26,3.342078,357,0.2909316420555115
+2024-25,2.0052485,6310,0.0
+2025-26,3.342079,357,0.29093196988105774

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm,subtype
 2009-10,6.1183867,7,0.5,H3N2
-2010-11,5.7967086,143,0.0,H3N2
-2011-12,2.0311272,73,0.0,H3N2
-2012-13,3.9450805,1091,0.4682730436325073,H3N2
-2013-14,2.0806854,86,0.01212503481656313,H3N2
-2014-15,1.7202483,1432,0.0,H3N2
-2015-16,1.975741,1238,0.058091096580028534,H3N2
-2016-17,2.12881,2591,0.09289420396089554,H3N2
-2017-18,2.3091416,2572,0.13389603793621063,H3N2
-2018-19,3.423726,3863,0.3873178958892822,H3N2
-2019-20,3.6749094,929,0.4444291591644287,H3N2
-2020-21,3.4970655,82,0.40399301052093506,H3N2
-2021-22,0.98050576,5132,0.0,H3N2
-2022-23,2.2399187,3829,0.24512304365634918,H3N2
-2023-24,3.4316835,5106,0.4770795404911041,H3N2
-2024-25,1.3332014,7078,0.0686461329460144,H3N2
-2025-26,3.337307,2621,0.45871075987815857,H3N2
+2010-11,5.7967076,143,0.0,H3N2
+2011-12,2.031127,73,0.0,H3N2
+2012-13,3.9450798,1091,0.468272864818573,H3N2
+2013-14,2.0806854,86,0.012125091627240181,H3N2
+2014-15,1.7202469,1432,0.0,H3N2
+2015-16,1.975742,1238,0.05809161812067032,H3N2
+2016-17,2.1288116,2591,0.09289488196372986,H3N2
+2017-18,2.3091428,2572,0.1338965892791748,H3N2
+2018-19,3.4237268,3863,0.3873182535171509,H3N2
+2019-20,3.674911,929,0.4444297254085541,H3N2
+2020-21,3.4970655,82,0.4039931893348694,H3N2
+2021-22,0.9805063,5132,0.0,H3N2
+2022-23,2.2399166,3829,0.2451225370168686,H3N2
+2023-24,3.4316819,5106,0.4770791828632355,H3N2
+2024-25,1.3332014,7078,0.06864603608846664,H3N2
+2025-26,3.3373048,2621,0.45871031284332275,H3N2

results_new/drift_scores_vae_h3n2_lag2.csv

@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 season,drift_raw,n_sequences,drift_norm
 2010-11,3.8453658,143,0.5
-2011-12,5.2308064,73,1.0
-2012-13,4.1863084,1091,0.24608966708183289
-2013-14,4.3651376,86,0.3751671612262726
-2014-15,3.1048477,1432,0.0
-2015-16,2.1606388,1238,0.0
-2016-17,2.3748763,2591,0.0697803795337677
-2017-18,2.9142287,2572,0.24545562267303467
-2018-19,3.235539,3863,0.3501112461090088
-2019-20,3.703335,929,0.5024794936180115
-2020-21,4.142055,82,0.6453772187232971
-2021-22,3.7562048,5132,0.5196999907493591
-2022-23,2.3349288,3829,0.05676886811852455
-2023-24,3.29202,5106,0.368507981300354
-2024-25,3.4486716,7078,0.41953176259994507
-2025-26,3.3143742,2621,0.375789076089859
+2011-12,5.230807,73,1.0
+2012-13,4.1863074,1091,0.246088907122612
+2013-14,4.365138,86,0.3751673698425293
+2014-15,3.104847,1432,0.0
+2015-16,2.1606398,1238,0.0
+2016-17,2.3748758,2591,0.06977992504835129
+2017-18,2.9142292,2572,0.24545550346374512
+2018-19,3.2355375,3863,0.3501105010509491
+2019-20,3.7033353,929,0.5024793148040771
+2020-21,4.1420565,82,0.6453774571418762
+2021-22,3.7562041,5132,0.5196995139122009
+2022-23,2.334928,3829,0.05676833540201187
+2023-24,3.2920172,5106,0.3685068190097809
+2024-25,3.4486709,7078,0.41953128576278687
+2025-26,3.314374,2621,0.37578874826431274

results_new/latent_diversity_tvae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,19 +1,19 @@
 season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
-2008-09,0.3514549,0.921172,0.976214968289716,236
-2009-10,5.0459914,1.2687854,31.58382431818852,7
-2010-11,3.7588248,1.789277,17.452317107739233,143
-2011-12,5.1395073,1.2054205,28.25461974743554,73
-2012-13,2.8362477,2.3693771,13.670779555635587,1091
-2013-14,3.9855099,1.1299956,17.363077394110583,86
-2014-15,4.058851,1.2284625,17.995957793368675,1432
-2015-16,4.89944,1.1941148,25.450975881863467,1238
-2016-17,4.604378,0.93995893,22.092346755584522,2591
-2017-18,2.4751942,2.1737309,10.855912700633152,2572
-2018-19,3.4912825,1.7975943,15.424391669523843,3863
-2019-20,4.975693,1.2111263,26.25261122455143,929
-2020-21,3.4024997,2.018207,15.843378189365517,82
-2021-22,2.335761,1.903944,9.082552376398837,5132
-2022-23,2.5314767,2.0475838,10.60374443876163,3829
-2023-24,0.9588288,1.8945732,4.5096438741425455,5106
-2024-25,2.4548104,2.8311925,14.043728122793624,7078
+2008-09,0.3514546,0.92117214,0.9762149682897161,236
+2009-10,5.0459924,1.2687854,31.58382431818852,7
+2010-11,3.7588248,1.7892768,17.45231710773923,143
+2011-12,5.1395073,1.2054204,28.25461974743554,73
+2012-13,2.8362472,2.3693776,13.670779555635583,1091
+2013-14,3.9855094,1.1299956,17.36307739411058,86
+2014-15,4.058851,1.2284625,17.995957793368678,1432
+2015-16,4.8994393,1.1941148,25.45097588186347,1238
+2016-17,4.604378,0.9399587,22.092346755584515,2591
+2017-18,2.4751945,2.1737306,10.855912700633155,2572
+2018-19,3.491283,1.797594,15.424391669523843,3863
+2019-20,4.9756937,1.2111257,26.25261122455143,929
+2020-21,3.4024997,2.018207,15.843378189365513,82
+2021-22,2.3357613,1.9039437,9.082552376398837,5132
+2022-23,2.5314765,2.0475843,10.60374443876163,3829
+2023-24,0.95882916,1.8945731,4.5096438741425455,5106
+2024-25,2.4548101,2.8311925,14.043728122793624,7078
 2025-26,1.0069419,1.8738798,4.527084137220221,2621

results_new/latent_diversity_vae_h3n2.csv

@@ -1,19 +1,19 @@
 season,latent_spread,latent_spread_std,latent_var_trace,n_sequences
-2008-09,3.313669,1.6013731,13.602436546379343,236
-2009-10,9.784639,4.9600573,140.39821454604873,7
+2008-09,3.3136692,1.6013731,13.602436546379343,236
+2009-10,9.784638,4.960057,140.39821454604873,7
 2010-11,4.327881,3.2802498,29.69827083144147,143
 2011-12,5.98618,4.6923175,58.65569272259287,73
-2012-13,3.8559673,1.3916547,16.820607908633896,1091
-2013-14,3.8778977,1.1995859,16.670944256951593,86
-2014-15,3.5541167,1.2522563,14.209813070619267,1432
-2015-16,4.352375,0.8372987,19.660118630489066,1238
-2016-17,4.1109977,1.09019,18.095800364470374,2591
-2017-18,3.3771176,1.5626003,13.852027837700037,2572
-2018-19,3.669112,1.2746193,15.09094246461552,3863
-2019-20,4.588271,0.9704961,22.017796871390356,929
-2020-21,2.9426322,1.6353238,11.473287626384167,82
-2021-22,2.8177254,1.3714436,9.822348257539309,5132
-2022-23,3.4422715,1.1090723,13.082690409720755,3829
-2023-24,3.2002034,1.1856002,11.649229902045345,5106
-2024-25,3.5912745,1.1871618,14.308626674583314,7078
-2025-26,2.6462448,1.0272139,8.060856173055233,2621
+2012-13,3.8559682,1.3916544,16.82060790863389,1091
+2013-14,3.877897,1.199586,16.670944256951593,86
+2014-15,3.5541167,1.2522563,14.209813072784906,1432
+2015-16,4.3523755,0.83729833,19.66011863141337,1238
+2016-17,4.1109977,1.09019,18.095800361928607,2591
+2017-18,3.3771179,1.5626004,13.85202783619405,2572
+2018-19,3.6691117,1.2746196,15.09094246330621,3863
+2019-20,4.588271,0.9704963,22.017796870978476,929
+2020-21,2.9426324,1.6353238,11.473287626384169,82
+2021-22,2.8177254,1.3714434,9.822348258626306,5132
+2022-23,3.4422715,1.1090722,13.082690408797582,3829
+2023-24,3.2002034,1.1856,11.649229902205231,5106
+2024-25,3.5912743,1.187162,14.30862667396526,7078
+2025-26,2.6462448,1.027214,8.060856172930706,2621

results_new/metric_sensitivity.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+Metric,Hamming rho (H3N2),Hamming rho (H1N1),SIRC RRMSE
+Euclidean,0.5950924725000538,0.6170025601968426,5.83212788224093
+Cosine,0.7705527272784202,0.6354756907416583,6.997946055044874
+Wasserstein,0.5656445975722161,0.6194656442694847,5.66575180941653

results_new/power_analysis.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+Effect size (rho),Power
+0.3,0.18854984672965175
+0.4,0.3115224846353255
+0.5,0.4772841587149417
+0.6,0.6704608842296238
+0.7,0.8518624581532503

results_new/representation_comparison.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+Method,Hamming rho (H3N2),Hamming rho (H1N1),SIRC RRMSE
+PCA (64-dim),-0.2539879212526003,0.4310397127123651,1.1306851373801727
+Conv1D VAE (64-dim),0.5950924725000538,0.6170025601968426,5.858599447568707

results_new/sirc_params_tvae.csv

@@ -1,10 +1,10 @@
 ,0
-delta_min,0.0031697736121714115
-delta_max,0.04337846487760544
+delta_min,0.003169772680848837
+delta_max,0.04337845742702484
 S0_base,0.3173694610595703
 ihr,0.008885985240340233
 beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 sigma,0.008333333333333333
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-calib_rrmse,8.669933319091797
+calib_rrmse,8.66993236541748

results_new/sirc_params_vae.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 ,0
-delta_min,0.004339590668678284
+delta_min,0.004339590203016996
 delta_max,0.02310071513056755
 S0_base,0.39473336935043335
 ihr,0.011631572619080544
@@ -7,4 +7,4 @@ beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 sigma,0.008333333333333333
 mu,3.6529680365296805e-05
-calib_rrmse,6.689363479614258
+calib_rrmse,6.689363956451416

results_new/sirc_params_vae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 ,0
-delta_min,0.004489263519644737
+delta_min,0.004489264916628599
 delta_max,0.021894609555602074
 S0_base,0.3526150584220886
-ihr,0.010617885738611221
+ihr,0.010617884807288647
 beta,0.3
 gamma,0.2
 sigma,0.008333333333333333

results_new/sirc_simulation_tvae.csv

@@ -1,22 +1,22 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,0.092914656
-2010-11,0.0,21.5,0.092914656
-2011-12,0.25877763328998704,8.7,20.738436
-2011-12,0.25877763328998704,8.7,20.738436
-2012-13,0.9852958062633138,44.0,543.9174
-2012-13,0.9852958062633138,44.0,543.9174
-2013-14,0.9068774233511345,35.1,536.99756
-2013-14,0.9068774233511345,35.1,536.99756
-2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.09402504
-2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.09402504
-2015-16,0.8515010278282928,31.4,530.9944
-2015-16,0.8515010278282928,31.4,530.9944
-2016-17,0.30441842041909695,62.0,64.08266
-2016-17,0.30441842041909695,62.0,64.08266
-2017-18,0.540895180958501,102.9,440.0395
-2017-18,0.540895180958501,102.9,440.0395
-2018-19,0.4945977292162307,63.6,399.92328
-2019-20,0.5231065793887718,66.0,426.466
-2021-22,0.0021945974600663942,17.5,0.09334195
-2022-23,0.2278013905374015,62.4,8.209013
-2023-24,0.35541869751681315,83.5,156.1173
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,0.092914686
+2010-11,0.0,21.5,0.092914686
+2011-12,0.25877763328998704,8.7,20.738447
+2011-12,0.25877763328998704,8.7,20.738447
+2012-13,0.9852958028433753,44.0,543.91736
+2012-13,0.9852958028433753,44.0,543.91736
+2013-14,0.906877431138676,35.1,536.9978
+2013-14,0.906877431138676,35.1,536.9978
+2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.09402496
+2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.09402496
+2015-16,0.8515009030763683,31.4,530.9946
+2015-16,0.8515009030763683,31.4,530.9946
+2016-17,0.3044181317090988,62.0,64.08221
+2016-17,0.3044181317090988,62.0,64.08221
+2017-18,0.5408942286330874,102.9,440.0388
+2017-18,0.5408942286330874,102.9,440.0388
+2018-19,0.49459723081994567,63.6,399.9223
+2019-20,0.5231063684279268,66.0,426.46533
+2021-22,0.002194597159336602,17.5,0.09334196
+2022-23,0.22780138260486393,62.4,8.208971
+2023-24,0.3554185258053015,83.5,156.11662

results_new/sirc_simulation_vae.csv

@@ -1,22 +1,22 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim,delta_used,S0_used,ihr_used
-2010-11,0.3811659192825112,21.5,27.76354,0.011490691920967914,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2010-11,0.3811659192825112,21.5,27.76354,0.011490691920967914,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2011-12,0.25877763328998704,8.7,4.210244,0.00919455005478487,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2011-12,0.25877763328998704,8.7,4.210244,0.00919455005478487,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2012-13,0.498781967358511,44.0,110.44246,0.013697301237637299,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2012-13,0.498781967358511,44.0,110.44246,0.013697301237637299,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2013-14,0.7938435890959884,35.1,473.00378,0.019232989046981,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2013-14,0.7938435890959884,35.1,473.00378,0.019232989046981,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.23543864,0.004444990244306875,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.23543864,0.004444990244306875,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2015-16,0.7924835892322237,31.4,471.8219,0.01920747392026876,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2015-16,0.7924835892322237,31.4,471.8219,0.01920747392026876,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2016-17,0.08999126008711755,62.0,0.37144732,0.006027927899654944,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2016-17,0.08999126008711755,62.0,0.37144732,0.006027927899654944,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2017-18,0.15661444334784863,102.9,0.8081216,0.007277853732856778,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2017-18,0.15661444334784863,102.9,0.8081216,0.007277853732856778,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2018-19,0.17305693220584953,63.6,1.0319885,0.00758633331278496,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2019-20,0.1489034564188727,66.0,0.72476953,0.007133186947358259,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2021-22,0.0018022011676060805,17.5,0.23280214,0.004373401989089104,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2022-23,0.21671195367740292,62.4,2.0849361,0.008405350603999221,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
-2023-24,0.17197793849479057,83.5,1.0151024,0.007566090177478187,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2010-11,0.3811659192825112,21.5,27.76354,0.01149069163280084,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2010-11,0.3811659192825112,21.5,27.76354,0.01149069163280084,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2011-12,0.25877763328998704,8.7,4.210244,0.009194549709626309,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2011-12,0.25877763328998704,8.7,4.210244,0.009194549709626309,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2012-13,0.49878179880439255,44.0,110.442444,0.013697297841974591,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2012-13,0.49878179880439255,44.0,110.442444,0.013697297841974591,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2013-14,0.7938433892500759,35.1,473.00443,0.019232985201647814,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2013-14,0.7938433892500759,35.1,473.00443,0.019232985201647814,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.23543856,0.004444989781261662,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.23543856,0.004444989781261662,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2015-16,0.7924837041353121,31.4,471.8221,0.019207475979347598,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2015-16,0.7924837041353121,31.4,471.8221,0.019207475979347598,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2016-17,0.0899919169023633,62.0,0.37145004,0.006027939798491982,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2016-17,0.0899919169023633,62.0,0.37145004,0.006027939798491982,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2017-18,0.15661489036160783,102.9,0.80812836,0.007277861726605755,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2017-18,0.15661489036160783,102.9,0.80812836,0.007277861726605755,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2018-19,0.17305709199702488,63.6,1.0319957,0.007586335925571789,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2019-20,0.14890371833543675,66.0,0.7247714,0.007133191464884925,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2021-22,0.0018022023705252486,17.5,0.23280184,0.004373401546835148,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2022-23,0.21671167994164964,62.4,2.0849314,0.008405345103661636,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544
+2023-24,0.17197780957686729,83.5,1.0150996,0.007566087373255103,0.39473336935043335,0.011631572619080544

results_new/sirc_simulation_vae_lag2.csv

@@ -1,22 +1,22 @@
 season,drift_blended,hosp_obs,hosp_sim
-2010-11,0.49999999999999994,21.5,36.63107
-2010-11,0.49999999999999994,21.5,36.63107
-2011-12,1.0,8.7,478.131
-2011-12,1.0,8.7,478.131
-2012-13,0.24458164941580568,44.0,0.9771865
-2012-13,0.24458164941580568,44.0,0.9771865
-2013-14,0.91836354870293,35.1,425.64105
-2013-14,0.91836354870293,35.1,425.64105
-2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.15526259
-2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.15526259
-2015-16,0.050752194856795795,31.4,0.17211087
-2015-16,0.050752194856795795,31.4,0.17211087
-2016-17,0.09153312537819147,62.0,0.20082441
-2016-17,0.09153312537819147,62.0,0.20082441
-2017-18,0.2072659218328171,102.9,0.57571805
-2017-18,0.2072659218328171,102.9,0.57571805
-2018-19,0.1564326844316848,63.6,0.31896898
-2019-20,0.036016886780312014,66.0,0.16546425
-2021-22,0.5172926741384354,17.5,44.542946
-2022-23,0.14479478503935916,62.4,0.28654456
-2023-24,0.13283999325913964,83.5,0.25965032
+2010-11,0.49999999999999994,21.5,36.631065
+2010-11,0.49999999999999994,21.5,36.631065
+2011-12,1.0,8.7,478.13095
+2011-12,1.0,8.7,478.13095
+2012-13,0.24458089629646207,44.0,0.97717905
+2012-13,0.24458089629646207,44.0,0.97717905
+2013-14,0.9183635759593254,35.1,425.641
+2013-14,0.9183635759593254,35.1,425.641
+2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.15526275
+2014-15,0.005617977528089888,64.1,0.15526275
+2015-16,0.05075199153801914,31.4,0.17211072
+2015-16,0.05075199153801914,31.4,0.17211072
+2016-17,0.09153268509544432,62.0,0.2008229
+2016-17,0.09153268509544432,62.0,0.2008229
+2017-18,0.20726582117094178,102.9,0.5757225
+2017-18,0.20726582117094178,102.9,0.5757225
+2018-19,0.1564323515334028,63.6,0.3189659
+2019-20,0.03601687396322931,66.0,0.16546433
+2021-22,0.5172921999702541,17.5,44.542393
+2022-23,0.14479438818335405,62.4,0.28654432
+2023-24,0.132839574275889,83.5,0.25964835