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README.md

@@ -100,13 +100,14 @@ No market prices or equity trading data are included, eliminating survivorship b
 ### 1-Year Targets
 - **Growth rates** (6): BVPS, equity, earnings, revenue, OCF, FCF growth
 - **Level/delta** (2): Forward ROE, margin expansion
-- **Binary** (5): ROA improved, fundamentals improved (≥3 of 5 metrics), value created (equity grew AND ROE>0), survived (filed Q+4 AND no bankruptcy in window), filed for bankruptcy (petition within 365 days)
+- **Binary** (5): ROA improved, fundamentals improved (≥3 of 5 metrics), value created (equity grew AND ROE>0), survived (filed Q+4 AND no bankruptcy in window; NULL when CIK is in dropout-cause cohort with cause ∈ {form_25_delisting, unexplained_dark} and the PIT gate is met — see Considerations), filed for bankruptcy (petition within 365 days)
 
 ### 2-Year Targets
 - **Growth rates** (6): Same metrics as 1-year, over 2-year horizon
-- **Binary** (2): Survived (filed Q+8 AND no bankruptcy in window), filed for bankruptcy (petition within 730 days)
+- **Binary** (2): Survived (filed Q+8 AND no bankruptcy in window; NULL when CIK is in dropout-cause cohort with cause ∈ {form_25_delisting, unexplained_dark} and the PIT gate is met — see Considerations), filed for bankruptcy (petition within 730 days)
 
 Survived and bankruptcy targets are mutually exclusive by construction. All targets are null when forward quarter data is unavailable.
+A third NULL state (CP-1 / v0.7.0) excludes Form-25 (M&A proxy) and unexplained-dark dropouts from the negative class to avoid mislabeling acquired companies as failed survivors.
 
 ### Rank-Transformed Targets (14 columns)
 
@@ -149,7 +150,24 @@ No market data providers. No third-party data. No equity pricing data.
 
 ### Bias Considerations
 
-- **No survivorship bias**: Uses only SEC filing data, not equity market prices
+- **Survivorship bias** (Audit C1 / C1.1, 2026-05-05/06): the panel is built from
+  SEC FSDS XBRL filings, so companies that stopped filing leave the panel
+  silently. An audit of the 2009Q2–2026Q1 window classified 8,847 stopped-filing
+  CIKs by cause: 54.4% Form-15 deregistration, 33.3% unexplained-dark,
+  8.7% bankruptcy, 3.6% Form-25 delisting (M&A proxy). LoPucki BRD intersect
+  analysis (Audit C1.1) shows 21.4% of in-window Chapter 7/11 bankruptcies
+  (83/388) are entirely absent from the panel, concentrated 2009–2011 during
+  the XBRL ramp-up — a structural lower bound on missed bankruptcies.
+- **Survival target NULL semantics** (CP-1 / v0.7.0): `target_survived_1y` and
+  `target_survived_2y` are set to NULL on rows where the CIK appears in the
+  bundled dropout-cause cohort with cause ∈ {`form_25_delisting`,
+  `unexplained_dark`} and the PIT gate is met (Form-25 `evidence_date` falls
+  inside the label horizon, or `unexplained_dark` always-NULL). This avoids
+  mislabeling acquired companies (Form-25 = M&A proxy) and unexplained
+  dropouts as failed survivors. Bankruptcy and Form-15 CIKs remain in the
+  negative class. The cohort artifact is shipped with the package at
+  `openfundex/cohorts/_data/dropout_causes.parquet` and regenerable via
+  `ofx cohorts refresh dropout-causes`.
 - **Temporal integrity**: Strict time-based splits prevent data leakage
 - **Sector bias**: Z'-Score thresholds may not be equally applicable across all sectors
 - **Financial firms excluded from Z'-Score**: Financial companies (SIC 6000-6999) have null Z'-Score values
@@ -174,6 +192,18 @@ The underlying SEC data is in the public domain.
 
 ## Changelog
 
+### v0.7.0 — 2026-05-14
+- **`target_survived_{1y,2y}` NULL semantics widened (CP-1):** rows where the CIK
+  appears in the bundled dropout-cause cohort with cause ∈ {`form_25_delisting`,
+  `unexplained_dark`} and the PIT gate is met are now NULL instead of False.
+  This excludes M&A proxies and unknown-cause dropouts from the survival
+  negative class to avoid mislabeling acquired companies. Bankruptcy and
+  Form-15 CIKs remain negatives. Schema unchanged; this is a value-contract
+  change. See Considerations § Survivorship bias.
+- New bundled package data: `src/openfundex/cohorts/_data/dropout_causes.parquet`
+  (8,847 CIKs classified by precedence). Regenerable via `ofx cohorts refresh
+  dropout-causes`.
+
 ### v0.6.0 — 2026-04-17
 - **`bankruptcy_chapter` populated:** Chapter number (`"7"`, `"11"`, `"15"`, `"9"`)
   is now extracted from the 8-K Item 1.03 filing body for each bankrupt CIK and

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