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11,100 | Cognitive Constructivism and the Epistemic Significance of Sharp Statistical Hypotheses in Natural Sciences | stat.OT | This book presents our case in defense of a constructivist epistemological
framework and the use of compatible statistical theory and inference tools. The
basic metaphor of decision theory is the maximization of a gambler's expected
fortune, according to his own subjective utility, prior beliefs an learned
experiences.... | statistics |
11,101 | Sweave Documentation for "Implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo: Estimating with confidence" | stat.OT | This file is the Sweave documentation for the examples provided in Flegal, J.
M. and Jones, G. L. (2010), "Implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo: Estimating
with confidence", in Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo, edited by Brooks,
S., Gelman, A., Jones, G., and Meng, X. published by Chapman & Hall/CRC Press. | statistics |
11,102 | Hotelling's test for highly correlated data | stat.OT | This paper is motivated by the analysis of gene expression sets, especially
by finding differentially expressed gene sets between two phenotypes. Gene
$\log_2$ expression levels are highly correlated and, very likely, have
approximately normal distribution. Therefore, it seems reasonable to use
two-sample Hotelling's t... | statistics |
11,103 | The two sample problem: Exact distributions, numerical solutions, simulations | stat.OT | The work presented in this article suggests a solution to the two sample
problem. Keywords: Two sample problem, Welch-Aspin solution, Fisher-Behrens
problem, nuisance parameter, similarity, the Linnik phenomenon. | statistics |
11,104 | Development and Initial Validation of a Scale to Measure Instructors' Attitudes toward Concept-Based Teaching of Introductory Statistics in the Health and Behavioral Sciences | stat.OT | Despite more than a decade of reform efforts, students continue to experience
difficulty understanding and applying statistical concepts. The predominant
focus of reform has been on content, pedagogy, technology and assessment, with
little attention to instructor characteristics. However, there is strong
theoretical an... | statistics |
11,105 | $L_p$-nested symmetric distributions | stat.OT | Tractable generalizations of the Gaussian distribution play an important role
for the analysis of high-dimensional data. One very general super-class of
Normal distributions is the class of $\nu$-spherical distributions whose random
variables can be represented as the product $\x = r\cdot \u$ of a uniformly
distributio... | statistics |
11,106 | Extreme shock models: an alternative perspective | stat.OT | Extreme shock models have been introduced in Gut and H\"usler (1999) to study
systems that at random times are subject to shock of random magnitude. These
systems break down when some shock overcomes a given resistance level. In this
paper we propose an alternative approach to extreme shock models using
reinforced urn ... | statistics |
11,107 | Tests of Non-Equivalence among Absolutely Nonsingular Tensors through Geometric Invariants | stat.OT | 4x4x3 absolutely nonsingular tensors are characterized by their determinant
polynomial. Non-quivalence among absolutely nonsingular tensors with respect to
a class of linear transformations, which do not chage the tensor rank,is
studied. It is shown theoretically that affine geometric invariants of the
constant surface... | statistics |
11,108 | A brief history of the Fail Safe Number in Applied Research | stat.OT | Rosenthal's (1979) Fail-Safe-Number (FSN) is probably one of the best known
statistics in the context of meta-analysis aimed to estimate the number of
unpublished studies in meta-analyses required to bring the meta-analytic mean
effect size down to a statistically insignificant level. Already before
Scargle's (2000) an... | statistics |
11,109 | A Conversation with James Hannan | stat.OT | Jim Hannan is a professor who has lived an interesting life and one whose
fundamental research in repeated games was not fully appreciated until late in
his career. During his service as a meteorologist in the Army in World War II,
Jim played poker and made weather forecasts. It is curious that his later
research inclu... | statistics |
11,110 | A Conversation with Martin Bradbury Wilk | stat.OT | Martin Bradbury Wilk was born on December 18, 1922, in Montr\'{e}al,
Qu\'{e}bec, Canada. He completed a B.Eng. degree in Chemical Engineering in
1945 at McGill University and worked as a Research Engineer on the Atomic
Energy Project for the National Research Council of Canada from 1945 to 1950.
He then went to Iowa St... | statistics |
11,111 | Degrees of Equivalence in a Key Comparison | stat.OT | In an interlaboratory key comparison, a data analysis procedure for this
comparison was proposed and recommended by CIPM [1, 2, 3], therein the degrees
of equivalence of measurement standards of the laboratories participated in the
comparison and the ones between each two laboratories were introduced but a
correspondin... | statistics |
11,112 | Squaring the Circle and Cubing the Sphere: Circular and Spherical Copulas | stat.OT | Do there exist circular and spherical copulas in $R^d$? That is, do there
exist circularly symmetric distributions on the unit disk in $R^2$ and
spherically symmetric distributions on the unit ball in $R^d$, $d\ge3$, whose
one-dimensional marginal distributions are uniform? The answer is yes for $d=2$
and 3, where the ... | statistics |
11,113 | A Conversation with George G. Roussas | stat.OT | George G. Roussas was born in the city of Marmara in central Greece, on June
29, 1933. He received a B.A. with high honors in Mathematics from the
University of Athens in 1956, and a Ph.D. in Statistics from the University of
California, Berkeley, in 1964. In 1964--1966, he served as Assistant Professor
of Mathematics ... | statistics |
11,114 | Baby Morse Theory in Data Analysis | stat.OT | A methodology is proposed for inferring the topology underlying point cloud
data. The approach employs basic elements of Morse Theory, and is capable of
producing not only a point estimate of various topological quantities (e.g.,
genus), but it can also assess their sampling uncertainty in a probabilistic
fashion. Seve... | statistics |
11,115 | A flexible observed factor model with separate dynamics for the factor volatilities and their correlation matrix | stat.OT | Our article considers a regression model with observed factors. The observed
factors have a flexible stochastic volatility structure that has separate
dynamics for the volatilities and the correlation matrix. The correlation
matrix of the factors is time-varying and its evolution is described by an
inverse Wishart proc... | statistics |
11,116 | Some notes on biasedness and unbiasedness of two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test | stat.OT | This paper deals with two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and its biasedness.
This test is not unbiased in general in case of different sample sizes. We
found out most biased distribution for some values of significance level
$\alpha$. Moreover we discovered that there exists number of observation and
significance level... | statistics |
11,117 | Revealing Sub-Optimality Conditions of Strategic Decisions | stat.OT | Conceptual view of fitness and fitness measurement of strategic decisions on
information systems, technological systems and innovation are becoming more
important in recent years. This paper determines some dynamics of fitness
landscape which are lead to termination of decision makers' research before
reaching the glob... | statistics |
11,118 | Which are the best cities for psychology research worldwide? A map visualizing city ratios of observed and expected numbers of highly-cited papers | stat.OT | We present scientometric results about world-wide centers of excellence in
psychology. Based on Web of Science data, domain-specific excellence can be
identified for cities where highly cited papers are published. Data refer to
all psychology articles published in 2007 which are documented in the Social
Science Citatio... | statistics |
11,119 | Removing Gaussian Noise by Optimization of Weights in Non-Local Means | stat.OT | A new image denoising algorithm to deal with the additive Gaussian white
noise model is given. Like the non-local means method, the filter is based on
the weighted average of the observations in a neighborhood, with weights
depending on the similarity of local patches. But in contrast to the non-local
means filter, ins... | statistics |
11,120 | Modern Portfolio Theory using SAS\textregistered OR | stat.OT | Investment approaches in financial instruments have been varied and often
produce unpredictable results. Many investors in the earlier days of investment
banking suffered catastrophical losses due to poor strategy and lack of
understanding of the financial market. With the development of investment
banking, many innova... | statistics |
11,121 | It is Time to Stop Teaching Frequentism to Non-statisticians | stat.OT | We should cease teaching frequentist statistics to undergraduates and switch
to Bayes. Doing so will reduce the amount of confusion and over-certainty rife
among users of statistics. | statistics |
11,122 | A Concise Resolution to the Two Envelope Paradox | stat.OT | In this paper, I will demonstrate a new perspective on the Two Envelope
Problem. I hope to show with convincing clarity how the paradox results from an
inherent problem pertaining to the interpretation of Bayesian probability.
Specifically, a subjective probability that is inconsistent with reality can
mislead reasonin... | statistics |
11,123 | A Proof on Asymptotics of Wavelet Variance of a Long Memory Process by Using Taylor Expansion | stat.OT | A long memory process has self-similarity or scale-invariant properties in
low frequencies. We prove that the log of the scale-dependent wavelet variance
for a long memory process is asymptotically proportional to scales by using the
Taylor expansion of wavelet variances. | statistics |
11,124 | A divergence formula for regularization methods with an L2 constraint | stat.OT | We derive a divergence formula for a group of regularization methods with an
L2 constraint. The formula is useful for regularization parameter selection,
because it provides an unbiased estimate for the number of degrees of freedom.
We begin with deriving the formula for smoothing splines and then extend it to
other se... | statistics |
11,125 | Sparse solution of overdetermined linear systems when the columns of $A$ are orthogonal | stat.OT | In this paper, we consider the problem of obtaining the best $k$-sparse
solution of $Ax=y$ subject to the constraint that the columns of $A$ are
orthogonal. The naive approach for obtaining a solution to this problem has
exponential complexity and there exist $l_1$ regularization methods such as
Lasso to obtain approxi... | statistics |
11,126 | On individual neutrality and collective decision making | stat.OT | We derive a simple mathematical "theory" to show that two decision-making
entities can work better together only if at least one of them is occasionally
willing to stay neutral. This provides a mathematical "justification" for an
age-old cliche among marriage counselors. | statistics |
11,127 | A Fast Non-Gaussian Bayesian Matching Pursuit Method for Sparse Reconstruction | stat.OT | A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for
sparse signal recovery. This method, referred to as nGpFBMP, performs Bayesian
estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or
unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics and utilizes a priori statistics
of additive no... | statistics |
11,128 | Demmartingales and the functionnal Hill process for small parameters | stat.OT | Association of random variables and Demimartingales are recent fields for
handling asymptotic behaviors of sums of dependent random variables. We apply
their techniques to establish the asymptotic law of a demimartingale
We next apply the results to find the asymptotic behavior the functional Hill
process for small p... | statistics |
11,129 | Experimental design for Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes | stat.OT | This paper deals with the question of how to most effectively conduct
experiments in Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes so as to provide
data that is most informative about a parameter of interest. Methods from
Markov decision processes, especially dynamic programming, are introduced and
then used in an algor... | statistics |
11,130 | Benford's law: A theoretical explanation for base 2 | stat.OT | In this paper, we present a possible theoretical explanation for benford's
law. We develop a recursive relation between the probabilities, using simple
intuitive ideas. We first use numerical solutions of this recursion and verify
that the solutions converge to the benford's law. Finally we solve the
recursion analytic... | statistics |
11,131 | A paradox on the spectral representation of stationary random processes | stat.OT | In this note our aim is to show a paradox in the spectral representation of
stationary random processes. | statistics |
11,132 | Perceptive Statistical Variability Indicators | stat.OT | The concepts of variability and uncertainty, both epistemic and alleatory,
came from experience and coexist with different connotations. Therefore this
article attempts to express their relation by analytic means firstly setting
sights on their differences and then on their common characteristics. Inspired
with the def... | statistics |
11,133 | Review of: Mixed Effects Models and Extensions in Ecology with R | stat.OT | This is a review of the book "Mixed Effects Models and Extensions in Ecology
with R" by Zuur, Ieno, Walker, Saveliev and Smith (2009, Springer). I was asked
to review this book for The American Statistician in 2010. After I wrote the
review, the invitation was revoked. This is the review. | statistics |
11,134 | On the asymptotics of Ajtai-Komlós-Tusnády statistics | stat.OT | In our days there is a widespread analysis of Wasserstein distances between
theoretical and empirical measures. One of the first investigation of the topic
is given in the paper written by Ajtai, Koml\'os and Tusn\'ady in $1984.$
Interestingly, all the neighboring questions posed by that paper were settled
already wi... | statistics |
11,135 | I hear, I forget. I do, I understand: a modified Moore-method mathematical statistics course | stat.OT | Moore introduced a method for graduate mathematics instruction that consisted
primarily of individual student work on challenging proofs (Jones, 1977). Cohen
(1982) described an adaptation with less explicit competition suitable for
undergraduate students at a liberal arts college. This paper details an
adaptation of t... | statistics |
11,136 | A Conversation with Stephen E. Fienberg | stat.OT | The following conversation is based in part on a transcript of a 2009
interview funded by Pfizer Global Research-Connecticut, the American
Statistical Association and the Department of Statistics at the University of
Connecticut-Storrs as part of the "Conversations with Distinguished
Statisticians in Memory of Professo... | statistics |
11,137 | On Renyi entropy convergence of the max domain of attraction | stat.OT | In this paper, we prove that the Renyi entropy of linearly normalized partial
maxima of independent and identically distributed random variables is
convergent to the corresponding limit Renyi entropy when the linearly
normalized partial maxima converges to some nondegenerate random variable. | statistics |
11,138 | Null hypothesis significance tests: A mix-up of two different theories, the basis for widespread confusion and numerous misinterpretations | stat.OT | Null hypothesis statistical significance tests (NHST) are widely used in
quantitative research in the empirical sciences including scientometrics.
Nevertheless, since their introduction nearly a century ago significance tests
have been controversial. Many researchers are not aware of the numerous
criticisms raised agai... | statistics |
11,139 | R Markdown: Integrating A Reproducible Analysis Tool into Introductory Statistics | stat.OT | Nolan and Temple Lang argue that "the ability to express statistical
computations is an essential skill." A key related capacity is the ability to
conduct and present data analysis in a way that another person can understand
and replicate. The copy-and-paste workflow that is an artifact of antiquated
user-interface des... | statistics |
11,140 | A method for comparing chess openings | stat.OT | A quantitative method is described for comparing chess openings. Test
openings and baseline openings are run through chess engines under controlled
conditions and compared to evaluate the effectiveness of the test openings. The
results are intuitively appealing and in some cases they agree with expert
opinion. The spec... | statistics |
11,141 | Claude Bouchu, intendant de Bourgogne au 17ème siècle, a-t-il inventé le mot "statistique" | stat.OT | The objective of this paper is to examine the assertion that the word
"statistics" would have been used for the first time in the 17th century, in a
report written by Claude Bouchu, administrator of Bourgogne. A historical and
bibliographical analysis is carried out to judge the credibility of this
thesis. The physical... | statistics |
11,142 | A Conversation with Donald B. Rubin | stat.OT | Donald Bruce Rubin is John L. Loeb Professor of Statistics at Harvard
University. He has made fundamental contributions to statistical methods for
missing data, causal inference, survey sampling, Bayesian inference, computing
and applications to a wide range of disciplines, including psychology,
education, policy, law,... | statistics |
11,143 | Validating Sample Average Approximation Solutions with Negatively Dependent Batches | stat.OT | Sample-average approximations (SAA) are a practical means of finding
approximate solutions of stochastic programming problems involving an extremely
large (or infinite) number of scenarios. SAA can also be used to find estimates
of a lower bound on the optimal objective value of the true problem which, when
coupled wit... | statistics |
11,144 | Conditional quantile estimation through optimal quantization | stat.OT | In this paper, we use quantization to construct a nonparametric estimator of
conditional quantiles of a scalar response $Y$ given a d-dimensional vector of
covariates $X$. First we focus on the population level and show how optimal
quantization of $X$, which consists in discretizing $X$ by projecting it on an
appropria... | statistics |
11,145 | The Sociotype, a New Conceptual Construct on Human Social Networks: Application in Mental Health and Quality of Life | stat.OT | The present work discusses the pertinence of a 'sociotype' construct, both
theoretically and empirically oriented. The term, based on the conceptual chain
genotype-phenotype-sociotype, suggests an evolutionary preference in the human
species for some determined averages of social relationships. This core pattern
or 'so... | statistics |
11,146 | Generalized probabilities in statistical theories | stat.OT | In this review article we present different formal frameworks for the
description of generalized probabilities in statistical theories. We discuss
the particular cases of probabilities appearing in classical and quantum
mechanics, possible generalizations of the approaches of A. N. Kolmogorov and
R. T. Cox to non-commu... | statistics |
11,147 | Using Google Scholar to predict self citation: A case study in Health Economics | stat.OT | Metrics designed to quantify the influence of academics are increasingly used
and easily estimable, and perhaps the most popular is the h index. Metrics such
as this are however potentially impacted through excessive self citation. This
work explores the issue using a group of researchers working in a well defined
sub ... | statistics |
11,148 | A brief history of long memory: Hurst, Mandelbrot and the road to ARFIMA | stat.OT | Long memory plays an important role in many fields by determining the
behaviour and predictability of systems; for instance, climate, hydrology,
finance, networks and DNA sequencing. In particular, it is important to test if
a process is exhibiting long memory since that impacts the accuracy and
confidence with which o... | statistics |
11,149 | The Final Solutions of Monty Hall Problem and Three Prisoners Problem | stat.OT | Recently we proposed the linguistic interpretation of quantum mechanics
(called quantum and classical measurement theory, or quantum language), which
was characterized as a kind of metaphysical and linguistic turn of the
Copenhagen interpretation. This turn from physics to language does not only
extend quantum theory t... | statistics |
11,150 | Revealing the Beauty behind the Sleeping Beauty Problem | stat.OT | A large number of essays address the Sleeping Beauty problem, which
undermines the validity of Bayesian inference and Bas Van Fraassen's
'Reflection Principle'. In this study a straightforward analysis of the problem
based on probability theory is presented. The key difference from previous
works is that apart from the... | statistics |
11,151 | Tree Oriented Data Analysis | stat.OT | Complex data objects arise in many areas of modern science including
evolutionary biology, nueroscience, dynamics of gene expression and medical
imaging. Object oriented data analysis (OODA) is the statistical analysis of
datasets of complex objects. Data analysis of tree data objects is an exciting
research area with ... | statistics |
11,152 | Using Board Games and Mathematica to Teach the Fundamentals of Finite Stationary Markov Chains | stat.OT | Markov chains are an important example for a course on stochastic processes
because simple board games can be used to illustrate the fundamental concepts.
For example, a looping board game (like Monopoly) consists of all recurrent
states, and a game where players win by reaching a final square (like Chutes
and Ladders)... | statistics |
11,153 | Data Science in Statistics Curricula: Preparing Students to "Think with Data" | stat.OT | A growing number of students are completing undergraduate degrees in
statistics and entering the workforce as data analysts. In these positions,
they are expected to understand how to utilize databases and other data
warehouses, scrape data from Internet sources, program solutions to complex
problems in multiple langua... | statistics |
11,154 | A Conversation with Howell Tong | stat.OT | The following conversation is partly based on an interview that took place in
the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in July 2013. | statistics |
11,155 | Precinct Size Matters - The Large Precinct Bias in US Presidential Elections | stat.OT | Examination of precinct level data in US presidential elections reveals a
correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes. The
large precinct bias is analyzed with respect to voter heterogeneity and voter
inconvenience as precinct size increases. The analysis shows that voter
inconvenience is ... | statistics |
11,156 | Quantile of a Mixture | stat.OT | In this note, we give an explicit expression for the quantile of a mixture of
two random variables. We carefully examine all possible cases of discrete and
continuous variables with possibly unbounded support. The result is useful for
finding bounds on the Value-at-Risk of risky portfolios when only partial
information... | statistics |
11,157 | Generalized Labeled Multi-Bernoulli Approximation of Multi-Object Densities | stat.OT | In multi-object inference, the multi-object probability density captures the
uncertainty in the number and the states of the objects as well as the
statistical dependence between the objects. Exact computation of the
multi-object density is generally intractable and tractable implementations
usually require statistical... | statistics |
11,158 | From Curriculum Guidelines to Learning Objectives: A Survey of Five Statistics Programs | stat.OT | The 2000 ASA Guidelines for Undergraduate Statistics majors aimed to provide
guidance to programs with undergraduate degrees in statistics as to the content
and skills that statistics majors should be learning. With new guidelines
forthcoming, it is important to help programs develop an assessment cycle of
evaluation. ... | statistics |
11,159 | The Compass for Statistical Researchers | stat.OT | We have hiked many miles alongside several professors as we traversed our
statistical path -- a regime switching trail which changed direction following
a class on the foundations of our discipline. As we play the game of research
in that limbo between student and academic, one thing among Prof. Bernardi's
teachings ha... | statistics |
11,160 | Robust Hypothesis Testing with $α$-Divergence | stat.OT | A robust minimax test for two composite hypotheses, which are determined by
the neighborhoods of two nominal distributions with respect to a set of
distances - called $\alpha-$divergence distances, is proposed. Sion's minimax
theorem is adopted to characterize the saddle value condition. Least favorable
distributions, ... | statistics |
11,161 | What are the true clusters? | stat.OT | Constructivist philosophy and Hasok Chang's active scientific realism are
used to argue that the idea of "truth" in cluster analysis depends on the
context and the clustering aims. Different characteristics of clusterings are
required in different situations. Researchers should be explicit about on what
requirements an... | statistics |
11,162 | Teaching and Learning Data Visualization: Ideas and Assignments | stat.OT | This article discusses how to make statistical graphics a more prominent
element of the undergraduate statistics curricula. The focus is on several
different types of assignments that exemplify how to incorporate graphics into
a course in a pedagogically meaningful way. These assignments include having
students deconst... | statistics |
11,163 | Replication, Communication, and the Population Dynamics of Scientific Discovery | stat.OT | Many published research results are false, and controversy continues over the
roles of replication and publication policy in improving the reliability of
research. Addressing these problems is frustrated by the lack of a formal
framework that jointly represents hypothesis formation, replication,
publication bias, and v... | statistics |
11,164 | Exponentiated Extended Weibull-Power Series Class of Distributions | stat.OT | In this paper, we introduce a new class of distributions by compounding the
exponentiated extended Weibull family and power series family. This
distribution contains several lifetime models such as the complementary
extended Weibull-power series, generalized exponential-power series,
generalized linear failure rate-pow... | statistics |
11,165 | Failure and Uses of Jaynes' Principle of Transformation Groups | stat.OT | Bertand's paradox is a fundamental problem in probability that casts doubt on
the applicability of the indifference principle by showing that it may yield
contradictory results, depending on the meaning assigned to "randomness".
Jaynes claimed that symmetry requirements (the principle of transformation
groups) solve th... | statistics |
11,166 | Le Her and Other Problems in Probability Discussed by Bernoulli, Montmort and Waldegrave | stat.OT | Part V of the second edition of Pierre R\'{e}mond de Montmort's Essay
d'analyse sur les jeux de hazard published in 1713 contains correspondence on
probability problems between Montmort and Nicolaus Bernoulli. This
correspondence begins in 1710. The last published letter, dated November 15,
1713, is from Montmort to Ni... | statistics |
11,167 | A Conversation with Nancy Flournoy | stat.OT | Nancy Flournoy was born in Long Beach, California, on May 4, 1947. After
graduating from Polytechnic School in Pasadena in 1965, she earned a B.S.
(1969) and M.S. (1971) in biostatistics from UCLA. Between her bachelors and
masters degrees, she worked as a Statistician I for Regional Medical Programs
at UCLA. After rec... | statistics |
11,168 | A Conversation with Richard A. Olshen | stat.OT | Richard Olshen was born in Portland, Oregon, on May 17, 1942. Richard spent
his early years in Chevy Chase, Maryland, but has lived most of his life in
California. He received an A.B. in Statistics at the University of California,
Berkeley, in 1963, and a Ph.D. in Statistics from Yale University in 1966,
writing his di... | statistics |
11,169 | Propagation of Uncertainty in Risk Analysis and Safety Integrity Level Composition | stat.OT | In many risk analyses the results are only given as mean values and often the
input data are also mean values. However the required accuracy of the result is
often an interval of values e. g. for the derivation of a Safety Integrity
Level (SIL). In this paper we reason what should be the accuracy of the input
data of r... | statistics |
11,170 | The Two-envelope Problem: An Informed Choice | stat.OT | The host of a game presents two indistinguishable envelopes to an agent. One
of the envelopes is randomly selected and allocated to the agent. The agent is
informed that the monetary content of one of the envelopes is twice that of the
other. The dilemma is under which conditions it would be beneficial to switch
the al... | statistics |
11,171 | Visualizing Probabilistic Proof | stat.OT | The author revisits the Blue Bus Problem, a famous thought-experiment in law
involving probabilistic proof, and presents simple Bayesian solutions to
different versions of the blue bus hypothetical. In addition, the author
expresses his solutions in standard and visual formats, i.e. in terms of
probabilities and natura... | statistics |
11,172 | Mere Renovation is Too Little Too Late: We Need to Rethink Our Undergraduate Curriculum from the Ground Up | stat.OT | The last half-dozen years have seen The American Statistician publish
well-argued and provocative calls to change our thinking about statistics and
how we teach it, among them Brown and Kass (2009), Nolan and Temple-Lang
(2010), and Legler et al. (2010). Within this past year, the ASA has issued a
new and comprehensive... | statistics |
11,173 | On locating statistics in the world of finding out | stat.OT | This paper attempts to situate statistics in relation to qualitative research
methods and other means of "finding out". It compares and contrasts aspects of
qualitative research methods and statistical inquiry and attempts to answer the
question of whether and how elements of qualitative research methods should be
incl... | statistics |
11,174 | The Crisis Of Evidence: Why Probability And Statistics Cannot Discover Cause | stat.OT | Probability models are only useful at explaining the uncertainty of what we
do not know, and should never be used to say what we already know. Probability
and statistical models are useless at discerning cause. Classical statistical
procedures, in both their frequentist and Bayesian implementations are, falsely
imply t... | statistics |
11,175 | The XL-mHG Test For Enrichment: A Technical Report | stat.OT | The minimum hypergeometric test (mHG) is a powerful nonparametric hypothesis
test to detect enrichment in ranked binary lists. Here, I provide a detailed
review of its definition, as well as the algorithms used in its implementation,
which enable the efficient computation of an exact p-value. I then introduce a
general... | statistics |
11,176 | A Conversation with Robert C. Elston | stat.OT | Robert C. Elston was born on February 4, 1932, in London, England. He went to
Cambridge University to study natural science from 1952-1956 and obtained B.A.,
M.A. and Diploma in Agriculture (Dip Ag). He came to the US at age 24 to study
animal breeding at Cornell University and received his Ph.D. in 1959. From
1959-196... | statistics |
11,177 | A Conversation with Jerry Friedman | stat.OT | Jerome H. Friedman was born in Yreka, California, USA, on December 29, 1939.
He received his high school education at Yreka High School, then spent two
years at Chico State College before transferring to the University of
California at Berkeley in 1959. He completed an undergraduate degree in physics
in 1962 and a Ph.D... | statistics |
11,178 | A Framework for Infusing Authentic Data Experiences Within Statistics Courses | stat.OT | Working with complex data is one of the important updates to the 2014 ASA
Curriculum Guidelines for Undergraduate Programs in Statistical Science.
Infusing 'authentic data experiences' within courses allow students
opportunities to learn and practice data skills as they prepare a dataset for
analysis. While more modest... | statistics |
11,179 | Combating anti-statistical thinking using simulation-based methods throughout the undergraduate curriculum | stat.OT | The use of simulation-based methods for introducing inference is growing in
popularity for the Stat 101 course, due in part to increasing evidence of the
methods ability to improve students' statistical thinking. This impact comes
from simulation-based methods (a) clearly presenting the overarching logic of
inference, ... | statistics |
11,180 | Studies on properties and estimation problems for modified extension of exponential distribution | stat.OT | The present paper considers modified extension of the exponential
distribution with three parameters. We study the main properties of this new
distribution, with special emphasis on its median, mode and moments function
and some characteristics related to reliability studies. For Modified-
extension exponential distrib... | statistics |
11,181 | The Third Way Of Probability & Statistics: Beyond Testing and Estimation To Importance, Relevance, and Skill | stat.OT | There is a third way of implementing probability models and practicing. This
is to answer questions put in terms of observables. This eliminates frequentist
hypothesis testing and Bayes factors and it also eliminates parameter
estimation. The Third Way is the logical probability approach, which is to make
statements $\... | statistics |
11,182 | Explorations in Statistics Research: An Approach to Expose Undergraduates to Authentic Data Analysis | stat.OT | The Explorations in Statistics Research workshop is a one-week NSF-funded
summer program that introduces undergraduate students to current research
problems in applied statistics. The goal of the workshop is to expose students
to exciting, modern applied statistical research and practice, with the
ultimate aim of inter... | statistics |
11,183 | Extended Dynamic Generalized Linear Models: the two-parameter exponential family | stat.OT | We develop a Bayesian framework for estimation and prediction of dynamic
models for observations from the two-parameter exponential family. Different
link functions are introduced to model both the mean and the precision in the
exponential family allowing the introduction of covariates and time series
components. We ex... | statistics |
11,184 | A Conversation with Professor Tadeusz Caliński | stat.OT | Tadeusz Cali\'{n}ski was born in Pozna\'{n}, Poland in 1928. Despite the
absence of formal secondary eduction for Poles during the Second World War, he
entered the University of Pozna\'{n} in 1948, initially studying agronomy and
in later years mathematics. From 1953 to 1988 he taught statistics, biometry
and experimen... | statistics |
11,185 | A Conversation with Alan Gelfand | stat.OT | Alan E. Gelfand was born April 17, 1945, in the Bronx, New York. He attended
public grade schools and did his undergraduate work at what was then called
City College of New York (CCNY, now CUNY), excelling at mathematics. He then
surprised and saddened his mother by going all the way across the country to
Stanford to g... | statistics |
11,186 | A multi-dimensional stream and its signature representation | stat.OT | The signature of a path is an essential object in the theory of rough paths.
The signature representation of the data stream can recover standard
statistics, e.g. the moments of the data stream. The classification of random
walks indicates the advantages of using the signature of a stream as the
feature set for machine... | statistics |
11,187 | From Statistician to Data Scientist | stat.OT | According to a recent report from the European Commission, the world
generates every minute 1.7 million of billions of data bytes, the equivalent of
360,000 DVDs, and companies that build their decision-making processes by
exploiting these data increase their productivity. The treatment and
valorization of massive data... | statistics |
11,188 | An Outline of the Bayesian Decision Theory | stat.OT | In this paper we give an outline on the Bayesian Decision Theory. | statistics |
11,189 | J. B. S. Haldane's Contribution to the Bayes Factor Hypothesis Test | stat.OT | This article brings attention to some historical developments that gave rise
to the Bayes factor for testing a point null hypothesis against a composite
alternative. In line with current thinking, we find that the conceptual
innovation - to assign prior mass to a general law - is due to a series of
three articles by Do... | statistics |
11,190 | Impugning Randomness, Convincingly | stat.OT | John organized a state lottery and his wife won the main prize. You may feel
that the event of her winning wasn't particularly random, but how would you
argue that in a fair court of law? Traditional probability theory does not even
have the notion of random events. Algorithmic information theory does, but it
is not ap... | statistics |
11,191 | Bayesian prediction for physical models with application to the optimization of the synthesis of pharmaceutical products using chemical kinetics | stat.OT | Quality control in industrial processes is increasingly making use of prior
scientific knowledge, often encoded in physical models that require numerical
approximation. Statistical prediction, and subsequent optimization, is key to
ensuring the process output meets a specification target. However, the
numerical expense... | statistics |
11,192 | Interactive graphics for functional data analyses | stat.OT | Although there are established graphics that accompany the most common
functional data analyses, generating these graphics for each dataset and
analysis can be cumbersome and time consuming. Often, the barriers to
visualization inhibit useful exploratory data analyses and prevent the
development of intuition for a meth... | statistics |
11,193 | Mandelbrot's 1/f fractional renewal models of 1963-67: The non-ergodic missing link between change points and long range dependence | stat.OT | The problem of 1/f noise has been with us for about a century. Because it is
so often framed in Fourier spectral language, the most famous solutions have
tended to be the stationary long range dependent (LRD) models such as
Mandelbrot's fractional Gaussian noise. In view of the increasing importance to
physics of non-e... | statistics |
11,194 | On point processes in multitarget tracking | stat.OT | The finite-set statistics (FISST) approach to multitarget tracking was
introduced in the mid-1990s. Its current extended form dates from 2001. In
2008, an "elementary" alternative to FISST was proposed, based on "finite point
processes" rather than RFS's. This was accompanied by single-sensor and
multisensor versions o... | statistics |
11,195 | Dynamic Data in the Statistics Classroom | stat.OT | The call for using real data in the classroom has long meant using datasets
which are culled, cleaned, and wrangled prior to any student working with the
observations. However, an important part of teaching statistics should include
actually retrieving data from the Internet. Nowadays, there are many different
sources ... | statistics |
11,196 | Reduced Perplexity: A simplified perspective on assessing probabilistic forecasts | stat.OT | A simple, intuitive approach to the assessment of probabilistic inferences is
introduced. The Shannon information metrics are translated to the probability
domain. The translation shows that the negative logarithmic score and the
geometric mean are equivalent measures of the accuracy of a probabilistic
inference. Thus ... | statistics |
11,197 | Picking Winners in Daily Fantasy Sports Using Integer Programming | stat.OT | We consider the problem of selecting a portfolio of entries of fixed
cardinality for contests with top-heavy payoff structures, i.e. most of the
winnings go to the top-ranked entries. This framework is general and can be
used to model a variety of problems, such as movie studios selecting movies to
produce, venture cap... | statistics |
11,198 | Its All on the Square- The Importance of the Sum of Squares and Making the General Linear Model Simple | stat.OT | Statistics is one of the most valuable of disciplines. Science is based on
proof and it alone produces results, other approaches are not, and do not.
Statistics is the only acceptable language of proof in science. Yet statistics
is difficult to understand for a large percentage of those who will be
evaluating and even ... | statistics |
11,199 | Understanding Convolutional Neural Networks | stat.OT | Convoulutional Neural Networks (CNNs) exhibit extraordinary performance on a
variety of machine learning tasks. However, their mathematical properties and
behavior are quite poorly understood. There is some work, in the form of a
framework, for analyzing the operations that they perform. The goal of this
project is to ... | statistics |
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