R3 add frozen 2025 verdict

diagnostics/R3_single_shot_ordered_gate_tail_calibration/confirmation_2025/verdict.json

@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+{
+  "format": "ASR_CYGNSS_R3_SINGLE_SHOT_CONFIRMATION_V1",
+  "created_utc": "2026-08-02T12:08:22.050819+00:00",
+  "development_model": "diagnostics/R2_confidence_adaptive_hybrid_gate/models/dev_2021_2023_hgmm.joblib",
+  "gate_policy": {
+    "T_low": 1.5,
+    "T_mid": 1.0,
+    "T_high": 0.8,
+    "p_hard": 0.8,
+    "margin_hard": 0.1,
+    "p34_threshold": 0.72,
+    "p4_threshold": 0.65,
+    "T_tail": 0.8
+  },
+  "calibration_policies": {
+    "FDS": {
+      "base": "affine",
+      "shrink": 0.5,
+      "slope_halfwidth": 0.2,
+      "b_clip": 3.0,
+      "tail_start": null,
+      "tail_width": 2.0
+    },
+    "Adaptive": {
+      "base": "affine",
+      "shrink": 1.0,
+      "slope_halfwidth": 0.2,
+      "b_clip": 3.0,
+      "tail_start": null,
+      "tail_width": 2.0
+    }
+  },
+  "qualification_gates": {
+    "rmse_below_fair_fds_calibrated": false,
+    "paired_bootstrap_upper_below_zero": false,
+    "correlation_not_lower_by_more_than_0p01": false,
+    "absolute_bias_within_0p30_ms": false,
+    "low_0_10_not_worse_than_fds_by_0p05": false,
+    "tail_10_20_below_fds_calibrated": true,
+    "tail_degradation_vs_r3_raw_le_0p10": true
+  },
+  "diagnostic_values": {
+    "main_rmse": 3.355344552165626,
+    "fair_fds_rmse": 3.0948690626068673,
+    "paired_upper_95": 0.28798213238988674,
+    "main_low_0_10_rmse": 3.424415855162908,
+    "fair_fds_low_0_10_rmse": 3.0987674409557733,
+    "main_tail_10_20_rmse": 2.756207649408252,
+    "fair_fds_tail_10_20_rmse": 2.9400713038062767,
+    "r3_raw_tail_10_20_rmse": 2.6957159081020596
+  },
+  "qualified_for_untouched_holdout": false,
+  "submission_ready": false,
+  "reason": "R3 did not satisfy every pre-registered 2025 qualification gate."
+}