R3 freeze fair tail-preserving calibration policies

diagnostics/R3_single_shot_ordered_gate_tail_calibration/selection/frozen_calibration_policies_2024.json

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+{
+  "format": "ASR_CYGNSS_R3_FROZEN_TAIL_PRESERVING_CALIBRATION_V1",
+  "created_utc": "2026-08-02T11:33:33.235834+00:00",
+  "selection_year": 2024,
+  "monthly_anchor_fraction": 0.05,
+  "candidate_family": "identity, bias/shrinkage, or slope-clipped affine with optional logistic tail guard",
+  "fairness_note": "FDS and Adaptive predictions were independently optimized over the identical calibration family and identical 2024 protocol.",
+  "policies": {
+    "FDS": {
+      "base": "affine",
+      "shrink": 0.5,
+      "slope_halfwidth": 0.2,
+      "b_clip": 3.0,
+      "tail_start": null,
+      "tail_width": 2.0
+    },
+    "Adaptive": {
+      "base": "affine",
+      "shrink": 1.0,
+      "slope_halfwidth": 0.2,
+      "b_clip": 3.0,
+      "tail_start": null,
+      "tail_width": 2.0
+    }
+  },
+  "FDS_selection": {
+    "method": "candidate_70",
+    "exact_score": 1.9498044629718272,
+    "low_rmse": 1.7365020486719218,
+    "tail_rmse": 2.7161555253431873,
+    "raw_low_rmse": 1.8024797726631099,
+    "raw_tail_rmse": 2.643160372700119,
+    "base": "affine",
+    "shrink": 0.5,
+    "slope_halfwidth": 0.2,
+    "b_clip": 3.0,
+    "tail_start": NaN,
+    "tail_width": 2.0,
+    "n": 11257270,
+    "effective_weight": 11257270.0,
+    "rmse": 1.9498044629718272,
+    "bias": -0.06018013647442965,
+    "mae": 1.4025891951558378,
+    "correlation": 0.785498912255898
+  },
+  "Adaptive_selection": {
+    "method": "candidate_126",
+    "exact_score": 2.064751898748605,
+    "low_rmse": 1.9488546953059356,
+    "tail_rmse": 2.5033072596677064,
+    "raw_low_rmse": 2.0938601840941464,
+    "raw_tail_rmse": 2.4086822676777393,
+    "base": "affine",
+    "shrink": 1.0,
+    "slope_halfwidth": 0.2,
+    "b_clip": 3.0,
+    "tail_start": NaN,
+    "tail_width": 2.0,
+    "n": 11257270,
+    "effective_weight": 11257270.0,
+    "rmse": 2.064751898748605,
+    "bias": 0.26226695673905015,
+    "mae": 1.4980078179034897,
+    "correlation": 0.760478268469209
+  }
+}