Add R1 gate and causal calibration audit

diagnostics/R1_gate_calibration_audit/gate_confusion_normalized.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+,pred_0,pred_1,pred_2,pred_3,pred_4
+true_0,0.2797562369072495,0.1830127594743872,0.18720243763092848,0.1717768044182083,0.17825176156922665
+true_1,0.19345093030089064,0.4321717972651742,0.21882964053628393,0.09012180459616534,0.065425827301486
+true_2,0.012638888888888674,0.22083333333332486,0.4915277777777953,0.2095833333333258,0.0654166666666653
+true_3,0.0025000000000000395,0.04069444444444534,0.28583333333333316,0.46833333333333227,0.20263888888888917
+true_4,0.0028938560207179076,0.02105257337486975,0.06387117323966406,0.2061853400864548,0.7059970572782935

diagnostics/R1_gate_calibration_audit/manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+{
+  "created_utc": "2026-08-02T06:42:34.868833+00:00",
+  "repo_id": "wuff-mann/ASR-CYGNSS-HGMM-Reproducibility",
+  "output_prefix": "diagnostics/R1_gate_calibration_audit",
+  "sample_per_month_per_bin": 600,
+  "monthly_anchor_fraction": 0.05,
+  "bootstrap_replicates": 1000,
+  "files": [
+    "R1_Fig01_gate_confusion.pdf",
+    "R1_Fig01_gate_confusion.png",
+    "R1_Fig02_route_candidate_rmse.pdf",
+    "R1_Fig02_route_candidate_rmse.png",
+    "R1_Fig03_route_by_wind_bin.pdf",
+    "R1_Fig03_route_by_wind_bin.png",
+    "R1_Fig04_monthly_causal_calibration.pdf",
+    "R1_Fig04_monthly_causal_calibration.png",
+    "gate_confusion_normalized.csv",
+    "monthly_anchor_monthly_metrics.csv",
+    "monthly_anchor_overall_metrics.csv",
+    "paired_daily_bootstrap.csv",
+    "route_metrics_by_wind_bin.csv",
+    "route_overall_metrics.csv",
+    "verdict.json"
+  ]
+}

diagnostics/R1_gate_calibration_audit/monthly_anchor_monthly_metrics.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
+month,method,anchor_rows,n,rmse,bias,mae,correlation,residual_std
+2025-01,FDS raw,45632,867014,1.8579728204946009,-0.17034051088150917,1.3402409245024123,0.8381521231817497,1.850148929178761
+2025-01,H-GMM raw,45632,867014,2.1105703537869185,0.036598482772751906,1.5483611455601398,0.8101964395684154,2.11025422770835
+2025-01,FDS monthly bias,45632,867014,1.858170847684901,0.17248706367938343,1.339349381173188,0.8381521231817473,1.8501489291787607
+2025-01,H-GMM monthly bias,45632,867014,2.1103708917774924,0.02230541456137763,1.548539362110541,0.8101964395684157,2.11025422770835
+2025-01,FDS monthly affine,45632,867014,1.8247489964581123,0.26014048457129807,1.3393443590753131,0.8381521231817453,1.806111732630594
+2025-01,H-GMM monthly affine,45632,867014,1.9539944346542468,0.2199697092214867,1.4488516186350915,0.8101964395684197,1.9415745995479743
+2025-01,FDS monthly HGBR,45632,867014,1.833764535154312,0.12608612961446486,1.324098972663875,0.8352888046674154,1.8294257346096687
+2025-01,H-GMM monthly HGBR,45632,867014,1.9686831817927763,0.17923313514444536,1.4494528577282566,0.8075833616820386,1.9605084510602864
+2025-02,FDS raw,39770,755622,2.0132836588717113,-0.1402866765879027,1.4588221903062224,0.8110036021184205,2.0083914154413045
+2025-02,H-GMM raw,39770,755622,2.3362163314708084,0.045308737323887065,1.7124951114380547,0.7725715545779016,2.3357784753933077
+2025-02,FDS monthly bias,39770,755622,2.018960262301799,-0.20632450485088072,1.4636918854890106,0.8110036021184254,2.0083914154413045
+2025-02,H-GMM monthly bias,39770,755622,2.345976153373238,-0.21851903529691746,1.7323422455754913,0.7725715615367525,2.3357784063917575
+2025-02,FDS monthly affine,39770,755622,1.9780227301143756,-0.18174338946080235,1.4348219842976733,0.8110036021184184,1.969656923294339
+2025-02,H-GMM monthly affine,39770,755622,2.1439773955983568,-0.1621660928399444,1.5756691765456248,0.7725715545779078,2.137837056378918
+2025-02,FDS monthly HGBR,39770,755622,2.015304514766701,-0.12248088161191267,1.4723635478271666,0.804488547307833,2.0115804920537754
+2025-02,H-GMM monthly HGBR,39770,755622,2.140956884669184,-0.17966614135677947,1.5861298799785293,0.7761692528516838,2.133406309888991
+2025-03,FDS raw,41466,787853,1.8491517520345144,-0.2872283525329768,1.321696568501346,0.7970950594038819,1.8267091478791933
+2025-03,H-GMM raw,41466,787853,2.0737546078455855,-0.18443261190740073,1.4889496860426101,0.7714875994752652,2.0655382350637783
+2025-03,FDS monthly bias,41466,787853,1.874980142376929,0.4227155766639112,1.35371594678834,0.7970950594038856,1.8267091478791933
+2025-03,H-GMM monthly bias,41466,787853,2.11025284770854,0.4321160677829387,1.516123006619454,0.7714875994752574,2.0655382350637788
+2025-03,FDS monthly affine,41466,787853,1.8492121577485676,0.4182859102500272,1.3423493130371933,0.7970950594038831,1.8012847137435426
+2025-03,H-GMM monthly affine,41466,787853,1.9452685172686848,0.41768592185505027,1.4158565032192436,0.7714875994752597,1.8998980647766899
+2025-03,FDS monthly HGBR,41466,787853,1.9566503872351846,0.3887281555524163,1.366800235832945,0.7707982162993773,1.9176485148586895
+2025-03,H-GMM monthly HGBR,41466,787853,2.0886101607494614,0.45873992232259925,1.4887318901595081,0.7374501614056201,2.0376102073479117
+2025-04,FDS raw,48196,915720,3.074657512634291,0.6767316927715732,2.105834162608342,0.5535107730211224,2.999260385408925
+2025-04,H-GMM raw,48196,915720,3.4356255708372427,0.9474091922440986,2.349778466583573,0.5134323392243151,3.302415902811524
+2025-04,FDS monthly bias,48196,915720,3.347505139940212,-1.4971961460676049,2.7596661038287027,0.551943108613364,2.99402808125907
+2025-04,H-GMM monthly bias,48196,915720,3.4901234511208026,-1.2321444695513994,2.792445992573529,0.5078161670245178,3.2653932924505025
+2025-04,FDS monthly affine,48196,915720,3.413123196491241,-1.7126311645040304,2.850834198948244,0.5535107730211206,2.952340421992754
+2025-04,H-GMM monthly affine,48196,915720,3.422482909417477,-1.631318834228217,2.8402732213973376,0.5134323392243172,3.0086870910217574
+2025-04,FDS monthly HGBR,48196,915720,3.2190424055156512,-0.7701126514198752,2.4834887296584047,0.4951050900184895,3.125567337448696
+2025-04,H-GMM monthly HGBR,48196,915720,3.301295513978133,-0.7150025025701353,2.5479903599266023,0.4648927273654427,3.222938850689411
+2025-05,FDS raw,49350,937646,3.86279631571559,1.5636383342926026,2.7603236684590047,0.47549100891072604,3.532172680116
+2025-05,H-GMM raw,49350,937646,4.1529414186222215,1.7255107847088813,2.9560739228119113,0.4518765196260121,3.777505814270149
+2025-05,FDS monthly bias,49350,937646,3.530588404040976,-0.08460888108356329,2.7590074220832506,0.4752979652519408,3.5295763346834756
+2025-05,H-GMM monthly bias,49350,937646,3.771585292421587,-0.5220336811078464,3.011357308229343,0.44854489236341294,3.7352846389519723
+2025-05,FDS monthly affine,49350,937646,3.349810798114541,0.11702795769835911,2.6637025040527393,0.4754910089107255,3.3477677328540856
+2025-05,H-GMM monthly affine,49350,937646,3.401458148716192,-0.010805070351881621,2.749645430714344,0.45187651962601455,3.4014428008030433
+2025-05,FDS monthly HGBR,49350,937646,3.5284354728284897,0.08829187173866933,2.76535500334233,0.40525238959953597,3.5273325191678677
+2025-05,H-GMM monthly HGBR,49350,937646,3.558555789790505,0.010571944181500375,2.822024073031102,0.3835216912078621,3.558541983506771
+2025-06,FDS raw,43182,820458,3.774289229678986,1.4111635681319157,2.6034579059686385,0.408715197734781,3.5005558856667527
+2025-06,H-GMM raw,43182,820458,4.032036452200579,1.5120379101070776,2.796400793196852,0.3833703608176375,3.737790301589998
+2025-06,FDS monthly bias,43182,820458,3.907619238269344,1.7365516226259148,2.6922430071732744,0.40871519773478593,3.5005558856667527
+2025-06,H-GMM monthly bias,43182,820458,4.217957860957078,1.954509965831939,2.924164345251247,0.38337036081764386,3.7377903015899974
+2025-06,FDS monthly affine,43182,820458,3.6982128550001216,1.5521728646249298,2.5855535277397954,0.40871519773478104,3.356717362611287
+2025-06,H-GMM monthly affine,43182,820458,3.7655739657150966,1.5870403872505563,2.6756419201670996,0.3833703608176405,3.4148007721000195
+2025-06,FDS monthly HGBR,43182,820458,3.6430412192491395,1.3628348108762502,2.5462119663160823,0.3958293526521468,3.378526974244237
+2025-06,H-GMM monthly HGBR,43182,820458,3.6921692954571004,1.3550369641644016,2.657447892926681,0.36766493266006184,3.4345310173885344
+2025-07,FDS raw,47553,903503,3.429332648573725,1.0555485475153248,2.289693675811846,0.4991176329330989,3.2628440755890153
+2025-07,H-GMM raw,47553,903503,3.7942296626660594,1.3047997916369642,2.559064114916157,0.4601004837706627,3.5628205520648946
+2025-07,FDS monthly bias,47553,903503,3.3187235711776033,-0.6186437182172132,2.608043564592396,0.4983693061476622,3.260554839052092
+2025-07,H-GMM monthly bias,47553,903503,3.5594860128889656,-0.27778906873430037,2.7170597972160153,0.4579265596465341,3.5486318274768434
+2025-07,FDS monthly affine,47553,903503,3.1798816042113605,-0.9600442599822362,2.6135278506971464,0.49911763293309624,3.031496694236612
+2025-07,H-GMM monthly affine,47553,903503,3.2170662039728875,-0.8201082355019063,2.618569637213481,0.46010048377066665,3.110779348215417
+2025-07,FDS monthly HGBR,47553,903503,3.511216169111392,-0.401309223550847,2.6833807308502236,0.40593306651785926,3.488209191041225
+2025-07,H-GMM monthly HGBR,47553,903503,3.679825424796678,-0.21393830528783644,2.7840189663607715,0.38166303783358313,3.673603203289466
+2025-08,FDS raw,48858,928304,4.165837358643214,1.9151236479271572,3.010499871974072,0.4662940883589598,3.6995293018693407
+2025-08,H-GMM raw,48858,928304,4.598108264339034,2.199979995553918,3.300355087132209,0.42605394343084996,4.037660856431945
+2025-08,FDS monthly bias,48858,928304,4.04048113799711,-1.7151324109264792,3.4242324250961755,0.4598575585745603,3.6583907742339523
+2025-08,H-GMM monthly bias,48858,928304,4.3495685763900855,-1.9218421617292438,3.68872810205142,0.4110436839311181,3.9019592395750657
+2025-08,FDS monthly affine,48858,928304,3.6710299783598637,-0.5716524480897374,3.052242917789399,0.46629408835895897,3.62624995634508
+2025-08,H-GMM monthly affine,48858,928304,3.689664298742238,-0.6815579861769108,3.063764404726419,0.42605394343084346,3.6261709162085682
+2025-08,FDS monthly HGBR,48858,928304,3.8151783947987328,-0.5951713414895943,3.042007860658064,0.34008489494515537,3.7684708512339884
+2025-08,H-GMM monthly HGBR,48858,928304,3.837256457638088,-0.6240013997607207,3.058748815593515,0.3186017093447056,3.786182089798354
+2025-09,FDS raw,46846,890077,2.695491889124699,0.49203707803360264,1.8156940233878767,0.6379836025270691,2.6502045070450366
+2025-09,H-GMM raw,46846,890077,2.9343328472522225,0.6076488189128341,2.0064805491161435,0.6153461069481055,2.870728379728424
+2025-09,FDS monthly bias,46846,890077,2.6710192740413765,-0.3343101434325536,1.9314525140136871,0.6379592730914302,2.650016713185973
+2025-09,H-GMM monthly bias,46846,890077,2.9099949997144137,-0.49090505859053174,2.173512691287806,0.614952464407228,2.86829084385413
+2025-09,FDS monthly affine,46846,890077,2.876482066714327,-0.45256305352917015,2.2273462958542916,0.6379836025270681,2.8406592243007096
+2025-09,H-GMM monthly affine,46846,890077,2.933374481975525,-0.5052717585255158,2.2923211908111454,0.6153461069481063,2.8895320870468977
+2025-09,FDS monthly HGBR,46846,890077,3.0432451571745327,-0.14830249842725352,2.0702516257370185,0.4342248323053939,3.03963120066059
+2025-09,H-GMM monthly HGBR,46846,890077,3.1111920940799744,-0.08828069295705393,2.1281335706777345,0.41065056124567456,3.109941097785148
+2025-10,FDS raw,33443,635424,2.9918904043484855,0.8128853585723503,2.100953578713635,0.6023639801194483,2.8793469108225054
+2025-10,H-GMM raw,33443,635424,3.2222528557548005,0.906400281246162,2.2753503627833886,0.5709126301608336,3.0921460256269433
+2025-10,FDS monthly bias,33443,635424,3.061124409338291,-1.048976159014796,2.4851381791306597,0.6023283003355715,2.8757859243039503
+2025-10,H-GMM monthly bias,33443,635424,3.156796504943858,-0.7328185885493017,2.4958977384483387,0.5705484088985763,3.0705628031029537
+2025-10,FDS monthly affine,33443,635424,3.09598722732235,-1.2270936777642358,2.5484915233888237,0.6023656374493334,2.8424269089449172
+2025-10,H-GMM monthly affine,33443,635424,3.118172952550252,-1.0958234202796628,2.5343457344743117,0.5709126301608368,2.919278507678599
+2025-10,FDS monthly HGBR,33443,635424,3.5065353693913903,-1.4954277684285369,2.8524484553916674,0.4895464055305914,3.171671785883626
+2025-10,H-GMM monthly HGBR,33443,635424,3.6708153063980906,-1.4855267051186616,2.9593785790622347,0.43649370555172795,3.35680103004112
+2025-11,FDS raw,45124,857350,3.2633448621094305,1.1399189876461158,2.315879305346583,0.523516306545767,3.0577794715079607
+2025-11,H-GMM raw,45124,857350,3.5470582584379553,1.1984941713514117,2.5081610900050504,0.4784136127067674,3.3384497913906372
+2025-11,FDS monthly bias,45124,857350,3.0631671877459454,0.18825475408193967,2.291507240008248,0.5235002211724418,3.0573786599807597
+2025-11,H-GMM monthly bias,45124,857350,3.3500032111876794,0.28863906460724426,2.4951128037995276,0.4782941708261189,3.337547302731384
+2025-11,FDS monthly affine,45124,857350,2.9715050896326534,-0.03345557633998535,2.32187668291052,0.5235163065457623,2.9713184817223848
+2025-11,H-GMM monthly affine,45124,857350,3.047019977423368,-0.0253235545566645,2.396942283253974,0.4784136127067696,3.046916521463713
+2025-11,FDS monthly HGBR,45124,857350,3.231808999657021,-0.07159945297612677,2.475204279104075,0.3803148019191294,3.2310176578042125
+2025-11,H-GMM monthly HGBR,45124,857350,3.2567227667594216,-0.0062692797869577845,2.51289311338658,0.3700524428565319,3.256718631780984
+2025-12,FDS raw,44984,854702,2.6337001984609816,0.4968159772376418,1.8218947114681543,0.6542272394791583,2.5864180727229145
+2025-12,H-GMM raw,44984,854702,2.9251792118557627,0.6681142363483833,2.0295457121956084,0.6107260635288325,2.847859946996577
+2025-12,FDS monthly bias,44984,854702,2.5865727883988168,-0.029436097060701206,1.854289036823294,0.6542280527175619,2.5864067995154456
+2025-12,H-GMM monthly bias,44984,854702,2.8545608620274914,0.19550211300459203,2.029782091384761,0.6107260523267883,2.847859920690505
+2025-12,FDS monthly affine,44984,854702,2.5769016181467723,-0.22438049314462866,1.903851139657224,0.6542272394791576,2.567115707226783
+2025-12,H-GMM monthly affine,44984,854702,2.693470643964936,-0.20571590194424816,2.0263195876769204,0.6107260635288317,2.6856048697027
+2025-12,FDS monthly HGBR,44984,854702,2.664459368681873,-0.1012175644359257,1.9609642038986554,0.6201700169607538,2.6625377041931952
+2025-12,H-GMM monthly HGBR,44984,854702,2.801120280715548,-0.012817858219655531,2.081194916694958,0.5682429329775346,2.801092592095872

diagnostics/R1_gate_calibration_audit/monthly_anchor_overall_metrics.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+method,n,rmse,bias,mae,correlation,residual_std
+FDS monthly affine,10153673,2.9655291049168353,-0.2529504030102947,2.2599712999186012,0.5550587398510006,2.9547216155757505
+H-GMM monthly affine,10153673,3.025764254387785,-0.24836829445046585,2.32273062132284,0.5301190874859084,3.015553582517831
+FDS monthly bias,10153673,3.050634167802085,-0.2637342043908619,2.269084072262782,0.5834300753992394,3.039212727812514
+FDS monthly HGBR,10153673,3.087347141966072,-0.13063789689874508,2.2647242255000437,0.530061775760699,3.0845821519234176
+FDS raw,10153673,3.0913680982033505,0.7732745102224446,2.0992818397366326,0.5817485564468263,2.9930927370750564
+H-GMM monthly HGBR,10153673,3.172271901664837,-0.09488429537660632,2.3489483729938194,0.5007606176848441,3.1708527210825967
+H-GMM monthly bias,10153673,3.29267162791883,-0.23071391280676917,2.452279738863674,0.553866788557422,3.2845789079053738
+H-GMM raw,10153673,3.3900205589238106,0.9438177059041601,2.316399269256061,0.548892151695678,3.255986574303981

diagnostics/R1_gate_calibration_audit/paired_daily_bootstrap.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+method_a,method_b,rmse_delta_a_minus_b,lower_95,upper_95,days,replicates
+FDS monthly affine,FDS raw,-0.1258825291357879,-0.19772760259433328,-0.05506606868314794,347,1000
+H-GMM monthly affine,FDS raw,-0.06643126292841695,-0.13880917366750378,0.004109093102162731,347,1000
+FDS monthly bias,FDS raw,-0.040555928766546456,-0.08632339371415687,0.010931513160447454,347,1000
+FDS monthly HGBR,FDS raw,-0.0033670012579152253,-0.06498692348976022,0.058116281713095866,347,1000
+H-GMM monthly HGBR,FDS raw,0.07848098723826213,0.014203168298235093,0.14147893950245807,347,1000
+H-GMM monthly bias,FDS raw,0.20101961728190276,0.14993274007836943,0.25318791818102776,347,1000
+H-GMM raw,FDS raw,0.29975425695056157,0.2710162230974963,0.32683272377362405,347,1000

diagnostics/R1_gate_calibration_audit/route_metrics_by_wind_bin.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+bin_index,method,n_sample,effective_weight,rmse,bias,mae,correlation,residual_std
+0,CYGNSS FDS,7200,2133979.0,4.911225489019601,3.579453672920871,3.717338197559325,-0.14350436277991374,3.362684523919707
+0,H-GMM hard,7200,2133979.0,5.271981178014131,3.5204054677910688,3.9119777423070956,-0.1461488082427257,3.92435101433116
+0,H-GMM soft,7200,2133979.0,4.7914834601394265,3.4097155261129273,3.6145526887008064,-0.14422170392448747,3.3663264517533253
+0,H-GMM top-2,7200,2133979.0,5.051553863133564,3.50778838982864,3.7342733036252005,-0.14919140651448265,3.635053925916785
+0,H-GMM oracle,7200,2133979.0,0.6901922207747772,0.3212266899515403,0.5285302335745122,0.8224933940265725,0.6108835529630796
+0,soft_T0.5,7200,2133979.0,5.0982768889109575,3.490329316836943,3.779376532071283,-0.14752018730439398,3.716184669258534
+0,soft_T1,7200,2133979.0,4.791483460139423,3.409715526113383,3.614552688700855,-0.14422170392455608,3.3663264517528586
+0,soft_T2,7200,2133979.0,4.328178699770641,3.4040439993016514,3.479918235390689,-0.1290402924018846,2.673128374763678
+0,soft_T4,7200,2133979.0,4.14121958196596,3.6937025165047226,3.6969036445134256,-0.11478575623335995,1.8725013606470364
+1,CYGNSS FDS,7200,1711252.9999999998,2.5434922989859245,1.0830452258015675,1.747013183637626,0.05245745643461025,2.301383521681933
+1,H-GMM hard,7200,1711252.9999999998,2.9279049147472405,1.1162470515403484,2.0242827263971175,0.07129750497253468,2.706772932798118
+1,H-GMM soft,7200,1711252.9999999998,2.505011625185961,1.0462367017134278,1.8036593561041612,0.08056528863566967,2.27606502681813
+1,H-GMM top-2,7200,1711252.9999999998,2.758345768068962,1.0898348380167664,1.9801149331608279,0.0790842271126936,2.5339162184391415
+1,H-GMM oracle,7200,1711252.9999999998,0.6032364194914256,-0.12528481578822617,0.49687353011685487,0.19941562644466235,0.59008295411217
+1,soft_T0.5,7200,1711252.9999999998,2.760663069889237,1.0973161448725293,1.9519007880492052,0.07522306183809065,2.5332109789064865
+1,soft_T1,7200,1711252.9999999998,2.505011625185907,1.0462367017134886,1.803659356104101,0.08056528863566141,2.2760650268180433
+1,soft_T2,7200,1711252.9999999998,2.0859774961305253,1.1213214546815584,1.564189893138945,0.09457590228358713,1.7589600079688592
+1,soft_T4,7200,1711252.9999999998,1.8359038250018658,1.3940404788711582,1.4905438809616698,0.10176176115528156,1.1946522497886791
+2,CYGNSS FDS,7200,2127421.0,1.6162992619039915,0.197735446964701,1.206582103429569,0.3176064978208757,1.6041583453777428
+2,H-GMM hard,7200,2127421.0,2.0933555329995612,0.34055331589447124,1.4958997237516771,0.2479635817499519,2.065468669956811
+2,H-GMM soft,7200,2127421.0,1.6147117361418861,0.12405942206961812,1.192074550927809,0.2620879361161122,1.6099388965516972
+2,H-GMM top-2,7200,2127421.0,1.8952255995048453,0.29650675431464707,1.3997938403122716,0.25852375625969043,1.871887768447749
+2,H-GMM oracle,7200,2127421.0,0.5525358709527872,-0.010329029031947474,0.46900155801199156,0.31320991440892076,0.5524393177977218
+2,soft_T0.5,7200,2127421.0,1.8626772070259796,0.2858843392865182,1.3552440398915098,0.26100404964923,1.840607650240761
+2,soft_T1,7200,2127421.0,1.61471173614187,0.1240594220696248,1.1920745509278026,0.262087936116113,1.6099388965516803
+2,soft_T2,7200,2127421.0,1.2009120188542384,-0.021401245123631667,0.9076678341665602,0.2640088396274755,1.2007213097699734
+2,soft_T4,7200,2127421.0,0.8369767797571925,-0.035401246015163375,0.6488258562657959,0.26155650908074707,0.8362277689919738
+3,CYGNSS FDS,7200,2799136.0,1.6387690539192212,-0.33651928413245413,1.287186751117309,0.3534910595358545,1.6038449998333006
+3,H-GMM hard,7200,2799136.0,2.0769567472696333,-0.17087893711196053,1.6402737685044608,0.3257953302348224,2.069915389304679
+3,H-GMM soft,7200,2799136.0,1.7217007706998617,-0.6727323961735739,1.376985594889804,0.35383530597226137,1.5848295387728801
+3,H-GMM top-2,7200,2799136.0,1.8501544341673635,-0.3109895941999735,1.467032356688423,0.3414178376649589,1.8238302833784978
+3,H-GMM oracle,7200,2799136.0,0.7740182236617374,-0.034206622152612026,0.6440273898709827,0.366703529796932,0.7732619980067427
+3,soft_T0.5,7200,2799136.0,1.8485293235047469,-0.3017408084991572,1.446846749616329,0.3478358174320032,1.8237360402051588
+3,soft_T1,7200,2799136.0,1.7217007706998557,-0.6727323961735722,1.3769855948898022,0.35383530597226226,1.5848295387728741
+3,soft_T2,7200,2799136.0,1.7056029224912186,-1.2457103487792913,1.4333358826906337,0.3565751935673221,1.165026633238383
+3,soft_T4,7200,2799136.0,1.8904811512509605,-1.6750918645474737,1.6957758255274382,0.3582877747368886,0.8763482347571797
+4,CYGNSS FDS,7200,1026658.0000000005,2.4341050925176995,-1.3633555357654883,1.9322124148408566,0.2615574305699853,2.0164645507715218
+4,H-GMM hard,7200,1026658.0000000005,2.401930445965501,-0.7276576287382177,1.7799511219561093,0.27150022560734133,2.2890575009368166
+4,H-GMM soft,7200,1026658.0000000005,2.469241240755518,-1.5995444403462962,1.9533813778770424,0.2823528862357306,1.8811193179607462
+4,H-GMM top-2,7200,1026658.0000000005,2.286703403853087,-1.0969374661295477,1.6465709426799608,0.2648411224815341,2.0064248434951613
+4,H-GMM oracle,7200,1026658.0000000005,1.1192314705403257,0.456133847811987,0.8552643077651849,0.32092013817163245,1.0220670220333354
+4,soft_T0.5,7200,1026658.0000000005,2.3089986919340797,-0.9735988528961539,1.7295543977847037,0.2804369547247891,2.093700129672964
+4,soft_T1,7200,1026658.0000000005,2.469241240755518,-1.5995444403462957,1.9533813778770421,0.2823528862357306,1.8811193179607464
+4,soft_T2,7200,1026658.0000000005,3.0826986324622854,-2.7608473580703805,2.787251750782564,0.28039555779697706,1.3714053828174362
+4,soft_T4,7200,1026658.0000000005,3.850862728977302,-3.726338513177632,3.7263395285401937,0.2809599745716497,0.9713624671746491
+5,CYGNSS FDS,7200,214301.99999999994,3.5504967834182466,-2.531869620506963,2.8785622742689334,0.1452678274966729,2.4891090040046944
+5,H-GMM hard,7200,214301.99999999994,3.0218934981320262,-1.8703141791373499,2.134173040265839,0.13312395752636555,2.373555389151557
+5,H-GMM soft,7200,214301.99999999994,3.6248823856181724,-2.8797318453466785,3.0053121484997414,0.13926301816381406,2.201571440689833
+5,H-GMM top-2,7200,214301.99999999994,3.2547594152662147,-2.3816090463162656,2.552534256461335,0.13595983173832918,2.218422232526667
+5,H-GMM oracle,7200,214301.99999999994,1.8439057586262484,-1.2995961613397953,1.5734416938354738,0.1711285822276581,1.3080666130308158
+5,soft_T0.5,7200,214301.99999999994,3.151785078453629,-2.1407977834694205,2.3843161897055407,0.13732173880549728,2.3131653704513577
+5,soft_T1,7200,214301.99999999994,3.6248823856181724,-2.8797318453466785,3.0053121484997414,0.1392630181638141,2.2015714406898335
+5,soft_T2,7200,214301.99999999994,4.739262294135133,-4.449116560897201,4.453848653707323,0.1383979338794237,1.6327795075151093
+5,soft_T4,7200,214301.99999999994,5.906542460000291,-5.814793259926165,5.814793259926165,0.13830066738574004,1.0370261212252803
+6,CYGNSS FDS,7200,136631.00000000003,4.888420855762945,-3.7721263698157332,3.953477918116582,0.17807178073352894,3.109295919207257
+6,H-GMM hard,7200,136631.00000000003,4.557804153103686,-3.5579314971549634,3.625014170598652,0.1353652656646746,2.8486316293269383
+6,H-GMM soft,7200,136631.00000000003,5.2561944311846736,-4.462735769343673,4.492887722069336,0.14319223171113307,2.776971255061405
+6,H-GMM top-2,7200,136631.00000000003,4.879920446639879,-4.024424052094167,4.066543014565637,0.1416766317249979,2.76000627072837
+6,H-GMM oracle,7200,136631.00000000003,3.5636830197177525,-3.0643004403663787,3.13843414875492,0.24495694476568713,1.8193129132161547
+6,soft_T0.5,7200,136631.00000000003,4.701304246453252,-3.7451264754261557,3.8089766946003856,0.13836762635116356,2.8418812960399036
+6,soft_T1,7200,136631.00000000003,5.25619443118467,-4.46273576934367,4.4928877220693355,0.1431922317111337,2.7769712550614014
+6,soft_T2,7200,136631.00000000003,6.676158538609004,-6.297445543738349,6.297590849674923,0.14983195250462825,2.2165902770453343
+6,soft_T4,7200,136631.00000000003,8.16956334634274,-8.010454337061345,8.010454337061345,0.15473026958815916,1.60448950877277
+7,CYGNSS FDS,3349,3349.0,13.962809023560538,-12.878106940518782,12.891264555827295,-0.3886249121701169,5.395775890174241
+7,H-GMM hard,3349,3349.0,14.14509208967045,-13.13865583042274,13.149807164422716,-0.3843390267417108,5.240167286924729
+7,H-GMM soft,3349,3349.0,14.427562844355293,-13.570518190494267,13.577926404237898,-0.39586994058707203,4.898530970534495
+7,H-GMM top-2,3349,3349.0,14.217516552930807,-13.297320901993094,13.306210977398283,-0.38705569994565253,5.031802237993761
+7,H-GMM oracle,3349,3349.0,10.151178746954034,-9.607425164681192,9.635638172522876,-0.37142868776731414,3.277775412938145
+7,soft_T0.5,3349,3349.0,14.201530094543756,-13.226801838072847,13.23784344792298,-0.39374725988780107,5.170606363143954
+7,soft_T1,3349,3349.0,14.4275628443552,-13.570518190494196,13.577926404237827,-0.3958699405870823,4.898530970534406
+7,soft_T2,3349,3349.0,14.8169200578181,-14.28693799472704,14.28693799472704,-0.3869270460298435,3.9274066169162043
+7,soft_T4,3349,3349.0,15.129665588104181,-14.858752691662032,14.858752691662032,-0.37792440574541386,2.8503068704773216
+8,CYGNSS FDS,944,944.0,22.20693274881314,-21.848152114425677,21.848152114425677,0.05860392454475023,3.9756900401347326
+8,H-GMM hard,944,944.0,22.346399858481686,-21.98832144184133,21.98832144184133,0.05023635767523119,3.9843828638085554
+8,H-GMM soft,944,944.0,22.654977132167534,-22.330580880054267,22.330580880054267,0.039615069411176033,3.820097697492646
+8,H-GMM top-2,944,944.0,22.47027172426237,-22.118444374532967,22.118444374532967,0.01190518831707356,3.9607486429810024
+8,H-GMM oracle,944,944.0,18.259526284432738,-17.868954976243607,17.868954976243607,-0.15844227273797454,3.7564275833388354
+8,soft_T0.5,944,944.0,22.444018279226597,-22.099918275873936,22.099918275873936,0.03857054921666211,3.915043897321061
+8,soft_T1,944,944.0,22.654977132167534,-22.330580880054267,22.330580880054267,0.039615069411175985,3.820097697492646
+8,soft_T2,944,944.0,22.850665409364403,-22.557944728453155,22.557944728453155,0.0419484432318609,3.6458249106032654
+8,soft_T4,944,944.0,22.89786319978729,-22.624411187961524,22.624411187961524,0.03591399973700165,3.5281946536740953

diagnostics/R1_gate_calibration_audit/route_overall_metrics.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+method,n_sample,effective_weight,rmse,bias,mae,correlation,residual_std
+H-GMM oracle,54693,10153673.0,0.9082238597191389,0.007429747487813382,0.6373884446876811,0.9664017364601893,0.9081934695952165
+soft_T2,54693,10153673.0,2.8160672363385837,0.09189900347404906,2.047682797810972,0.6003392420345188,2.81456732958018
+soft_T4,54693,10153673.0,2.9261708035604057,-0.07225726152558823,2.245910346906226,0.5957483605278937,2.925278526869907
+soft_T1,54693,10153673.0,2.9373634086115112,0.4443614640583595,2.0209662757967597,0.5995790900928498,2.9035575908718854
+H-GMM soft,54693,10153673.0,2.9373634086115232,0.44436146405825144,2.020966275796761,0.5995790900928561,2.903557590871914
+CYGNSS FDS,54693,10153673.0,2.9570524473514657,0.6351513620594645,1.9989603966746183,0.610502076933065,2.888034266358573
+H-GMM top-2,54693,10153673.0,3.0867472229787154,0.6755176766694979,2.097787559438789,0.5917285801251762,3.0119236854664586
+soft_T0.5,54693,10153673.0,3.0944621418446365,0.6947700838823836,2.088962922878764,0.5960876446843575,3.0154585850002587
+H-GMM hard,54693,10153673.0,3.2498540959080744,0.7849464602174034,2.2091256711777203,0.5801106637468691,3.1536345221478435

diagnostics/R1_gate_calibration_audit/verdict.json

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+{
+  "format": "ASR_CYGNSS_R1_GATE_CALIBRATION_AUDIT_V1",
+  "gate_accuracy_weighted": 0.4684821216092607,
+  "routing_entropy_weighted": 1.076006445332917,
+  "oracle_gain_over_fds_rmse": 2.0488285876323267,
+  "soft_gain_over_hard_rmse": 0.31249068729655116,
+  "top2_gain_over_hard_rmse": 0.163106872929359,
+  "bottleneck": "GATE_DOMINANT",
+  "recommendation": "Use 2024 as an independent development year to select soft/top-2 routing, then confirm once on 2025.",
+  "best_monthly_causal_method": "FDS monthly affine",
+  "best_monthly_causal_rmse": 2.9655291049168353,
+  "submission_ready": false,
+  "reason": "The current manuscript claim requires a method that is demonstrably better than FDS under a pre-registered independent protocol."
+}