README.md

---
license: cc-by-nc-4.0
task_categories:
- tabular-classification
- tabular-regression
- time-series-forecasting
tags:
- synthetic-data
- climate-impact
- climate-change
- ipcc-ar6
- cmip6
- ssp-scenarios
- ssp1-1-9
- ssp1-2-6
- ssp2-4-5
- ssp3-7-0
- ssp5-8-5
- climate-projections
- temperature-projections
- global-mean-surface-temperature
- gmst
- polar-amplification
- enso
- pdo
- natural-variability
- ensemble-spread
- extreme-events
- heatwave
- flood
- drought
- wildfire
- hurricane
- compound-events
- climate-attribution
- fischer-knutti
- carbon-emissions
- ghg-protocol
- scope-1-2-3
- co2
- methane
- ch4
- n2o
- hfcs
- gwp-100
- carbon-budget
- net-zero
- ngfs
- ngfs-scenarios
- carbon-pricing
- carbon-dioxide-removal
- cdr
- sea-level-rise
- slr
- thermal-expansion
- ice-sheet
- glacier
- ocean-acidification
- ocean-ph
- marine-heatwave
- storm-surge
- adaptation
- maladaptation
- benefit-cost-ratio
- undrr
- world-bank
- climate-finance
- physical-climate-risk
- transition-risk
- tcfd
- sasb
- noaa-storm-events
- munich-re-natcat
- iea-ghg
pretty_name: ENR007 — Synthetic Climate Impact Dataset (Sample)
size_categories:
- 10K<n<100K
configs:
- config_name: temperature
  data_files: ENR007_climate_all.parquet
- config_name: extreme_events
  data_files: ENR007_extreme_events_all.parquet
- config_name: emissions
  data_files: ENR007_emissions_all.parquet
- config_name: sea_level
  data_files: ENR007_sea_level_all.parquet
- config_name: adaptation
  data_files: ENR007_adaptation_all.parquet
---

# ENR007 — Synthetic Climate Impact Dataset (Sample Preview)

**XpertSystems.ai | Synthetic Data Factory | Energy & Climate Vertical**

A **five-table climate impact dataset** spanning the full physical & transition
risk surface: temperature projections with polar amplification and ENSO-like
natural variability, extreme weather events (12 hazard types with climate
attribution fractions), carbon emissions pathways (6 sectors × 4 GHG species
with carbon budgets and pricing), sea level rise (GMSL decomposition into
thermal expansion + ice sheets + glaciers, ocean pH, marine heatwaves), and
adaptation strategies (12 strategy types with BCR, NPV, maladaptation flags).
Calibrated benchmark-first against **IPCC AR6 (2021) WG1 Tables SPM.1 and
9.9**, **CMIP6 model ensemble**, **NOAA Storm Events**, **Munich Re NatCat**,
**IEA GHG (2022)**, **Fischer & Knutti (2015) attribution meta-analysis**,
**NGFS scenarios**, and **UNDRR/World Bank adaptation literature**.

**All six IPCC SSP scenarios are included in the sample** (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6,
SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5, Current Policy) — the SSP comparison is the
dataset's signature feature.

This is the **sample preview** — 30 locations × 30 years (2020-2049) × all 6
SSP scenarios (~34K total records). The full product covers 500-1000+
locations × 80 years (full IPCC AR6 century horizon to 2100) × all 6 SSP
scenarios (~10M+ records) with full geographic detail and complete adaptation
strategy coverage.

---

## Dataset summary

| Table | Rows (sample) | What it contains |
|---|---:|---|
| `temperature` | 5,400 | Per location × year × scenario climate projections: GMST anomaly, regional anomaly (with polar amplification), ensemble p10/mean/p90 spread, ENSO-like natural variability, heat index, frost days, growing degree days, Tmax record exceedance, UHI offset |
| `extreme_events` | ~22,000 | 12 hazard types (Heatwave, Cold_Snap, Flood, Flash_Flood, Drought, Wildfire, Hurricane, Tornado, Blizzard, Ice_Storm, Storm_Surge, Compound_Event) with severity (Moderate / Severe / Extreme / Exceptional), return period & AEP, damage USD (Pareto tail), insured loss, fatalities, displaced persons, climate attribution fraction, frequency change |
| `emissions` | 4,320 | 6 sectors (Energy, Transport, Industry, Agriculture, LULUCF, Waste) × 4 gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs) × years × 6 scenarios. Includes Scope 1/2/3 decomposition, carbon budgets remaining (1.5°C and 2°C), CDR deployment, per-capita CO2, carbon price trajectories |
| `sea_level` | 1,800 | Coastal locations × year × scenario: GMSL with three-part decomposition (thermal expansion + ice sheet + glacier), regional SLR with vertical land motion, ocean pH, marine heatwave days, ocean heat content, storm surge, coastal flood frequency change |
| `adaptation` | 864 | 12 adaptation strategy types per location: BCR, NPV of avoided damages, implementation cost & timeline, damage reduction, effectiveness score, maladaptation risk flag, equity score, CO2 mitigation co-benefit (for nature-based solutions) |

All five tables are provided in both **CSV** and **Parquet**. They join on
`location_id`, `scenario_id`, and `year`.

---

## Calibration sources

All ten validation metrics target named industry / scientific sources:

- **IPCC AR6 (2021) WG1 Table SPM.1** — SSP temperature trajectories
  (2050 + 2100 medians, p10, p90)
- **IPCC AR6 (2021) WG1 Chapter 4** — ensemble spread and climate indices
  (frost days, growing degree days under warming)
- **IPCC AR6 (2021) WG1 Chapter 5** — ocean acidification trajectories
  (pH drop by SSP scenario)
- **IPCC AR6 (2021) WG1 Chapter 9 Table 9.9** — sea level rise projections
- **IPCC AR6 (2021) WG1 Chapter 11** — extreme event attribution
- **CMIP6 multi-model ensemble** — temperature spread and natural variability
- **NOAA Storm Events Database** — extreme event frequencies and damages
- **Munich Re NatCat / Swiss Re sigma** — insured loss fractions, damage
  distributions
- **Fischer & Knutti (2015)** — climate attribution meta-analysis (event
  frequency sensitivity to warming)
- **IEA GHG (2022)** — sector-level emissions baselines and decline rates
- **GHG Protocol Corporate Standard** — Scope 1/2/3 emissions decomposition
- **NGFS Climate Scenarios** — carbon price trajectories by SSP
- **UNDRR Global Assessment Report + Schipper (2020)** — maladaptation risk
  under deep warming
- **World Bank / UNDRR** — adaptation cost-benefit literature

---

## Validation scorecard (seed = 42)

10/10 PASS · **Grade A+ (100%)** across all six canonical seeds (42, 7, 123, 2024, 99, 1).

| # | Metric | Observed | Target | Tol | Type | Source |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|
| 1 | `ensemble_p10_le_mean_le_p90_rate` | 1.000 | 0.99 | ±0.01 | FLOOR | IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch 4 |
| 2 | `aep_equals_inverse_return_period_rate` | 0.979 | 0.95 | ±0.05 | FLOOR | Probability theory |
| 3 | `scope_sum_equals_annual_emissions_rate` | 1.000 | 0.99 | ±0.01 | FLOOR | GHG Protocol |
| 4 | `insured_loss_le_economic_damage_rate` | 1.000 | 0.99 | ±0.01 | FLOOR | Munich Re NatCat |
| 5 | `climate_attribution_fraction_in_bounds_rate` | 1.000 | 0.99 | ±0.01 | FLOOR | IPCC AR6 Ch 11 / Fischer & Knutti |
| 6 | `carbon_price_2030_matches_scenario_targets_rate` | 1.000 | 0.99 | ±0.01 | FLOOR | NGFS / IPCC AR6 |
| 7 | `ocean_ph_in_ar6_band_rate` | 1.000 | 0.99 | ±0.01 | FLOOR | IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch 5 |
| 8 | `frost_days_decrease_with_warming` | 1.000 | 1.00 | ±0.01 | FLOOR | IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch 4 |
| 9 | `gmsl_warming_ordering` | 1.000 | 1.00 | ±0.01 | FLOOR | IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch 9 Table 9.9 |
| 10 | `maladaptation_warming_ordering` | 1.000 | 1.00 | ±0.01 | FLOOR | UNDRR GAR / Schipper (2020) |

The **AR6 scenario warming ordering test** (#9) confirms that GMSL at the
terminal year (2049 in this sample) is properly ordered across SSPs:
SSP5-8.5 > SSP3-7.0 > Current_Policy > SSP2-4.5 > SSP1-2.6 > SSP1-1.9.

---

## Schema highlights

### `temperature` (5,400 rows × 21 cols, all 6 scenarios)
`location_id`, `scenario_id` (SSP1-1.9 / SSP1-2.6 / SSP2-4.5 / SSP3-7.0 /
SSP5-8.5 / Current_Policy), `year`, `global_mean_temp_anomaly_C`,
`regional_temp_anomaly_C`, `ensemble_mean_C`, `ensemble_p10_C`,
`ensemble_p90_C`, `temp_trend_C_per_decade`, `natural_variability_C`,
`heat_index_C`, `frost_days_per_year`, `growing_degree_days`,
`tmax_record_exceedance_flag`, `urban_heat_island_C`, `latitude`,
`longitude`, `region_type` (Polar / Temperate / Mediterranean / Tropical /
Arid / Coastal / Island / Mountainous), `is_coastal`, `is_urban`.

### `extreme_events` (~22,000 rows × 22 cols)
`event_id`, `location_id`, `scenario_id`, `year`, `event_type` (12 hazards),
`event_severity` (Moderate / Severe / Extreme / Exceptional),
`event_start_date`, `event_end_date`, `duration_days`, `affected_area_km2`,
`peak_intensity`, `return_period_years`, `annual_exceedance_prob`,
`economic_damage_USD`, `insured_loss_USD`, `fatalities`, `displaced_persons`,
`infrastructure_damage_score`, `compound_event_flag`,
`climate_attribution_fraction`, `event_frequency_change_pct`, `latitude`,
`longitude`, `region_type`.

### `emissions` (4,320 rows × 19 cols)
`scenario_id`, `year`, `emission_sector` (Energy / Transport / Industry /
Agriculture / LULUCF / Waste), `gas_type` (CO2 / CH4 / N2O / HFCs),
`gwp_100yr`, `annual_emissions_MtCO2e`, `cumulative_emissions_GtCO2`,
`carbon_budget_remaining_1_5C_GtCO2`, `carbon_budget_remaining_2C_GtCO2`,
`emission_intensity_kgCO2_per_GDP`, `per_capita_tCO2e`,
`fossil_fuel_combustion_pct`, `land_use_change_MtCO2`,
`cdr_deployment_MtCO2yr`, `net_zero_year`, `scope1_emissions_MtCO2e`,
`scope2_emissions_MtCO2e`, `scope3_emissions_MtCO2e`,
`carbon_price_USD_per_tCO2`, `stranded_asset_risk_USD_B`.

### `sea_level` (1,800 rows × 17 cols)
`location_id`, `scenario_id`, `year`, `global_mean_sea_level_rise_mm`,
`regional_slr_mm`, `slr_likely_range_low_mm`, `slr_likely_range_high_mm`,
`thermal_expansion_mm`, `ice_sheet_contribution_mm`,
`glacier_contribution_mm`, `vertical_land_motion_mm_yr`,
`coastal_flood_frequency_change_pct`, `storm_surge_height_m`, `ocean_ph`,
`ocean_heat_content_ZJ`, `marine_heatwave_days_per_yr`, `latitude`,
`longitude`, `region_type`, `is_coastal`.

### `adaptation` (864 rows × 15 cols)
`adaptation_id`, `location_id`, `scenario_id`, `strategy_type` (Seawall /
Managed_Retreat / Urban_Greening / Crop_Diversification / Early_Warning_System
/ Building_Codes / Water_Harvesting / Reforestation / Insurance_Scheme /
Social_Safety_Net / Desalination / Wetland_Restoration), `implementation_year`,
`implementation_cost_USD`, `annual_maintenance_cost_USD`,
`benefit_cost_ratio`, `damage_reduction_pct`,
`co2_mitigation_potential_MtCO2yr`, `adaptation_effectiveness_score`,
`maladaptation_risk_flag`, `equity_score`, `implementation_timeline_years`,
`avoided_damages_USD_NPV`, `region_type`, `is_coastal`, `latitude`.

---

## Suggested use cases

- **SSP scenario comparison ML** — train classifiers / regressors that
  predict regional climate outcomes given an input SSP scenario;
  benchmark prediction skill across the 6 SSP trajectories
- **Climate attribution ML** — train classifiers for
  `climate_attribution_fraction` from event_type, severity, location,
  scenario; useful for litigation / regulatory ML pipelines
- **Extreme event return period estimation** — fit Generalized Extreme Value
  (GEV) models per event_type × region_type and benchmark against the
  included `return_period_years`
- **Catastrophe (CAT) modeling pipelines** — combine `economic_damage_USD`,
  `insured_loss_USD`, `fatalities`, `affected_area_km2` features for
  Pareto-tail loss models à la Munich Re / Swiss Re
- **Carbon budget exhaustion forecasting** — predict
  `carbon_budget_remaining_1_5C_GtCO2` trajectories under different
  policy paths; useful for transition-risk ML for TCFD/SASB
- **Scope 1/2/3 emissions decomposition** — train sector-level disaggregation
  models for corporate emissions reporting
- **Net Zero pathway optimization** — model `cdr_deployment_MtCO2yr` and
  `carbon_price_USD_per_tCO2` joint dynamics for IAM (integrated assessment
  model) augmentation
- **Coastal SLR risk ML** — predict regional SLR from GMSL drivers
  (thermal_expansion / ice_sheet / glacier components) + vertical land
  motion; useful for asset-level coastal risk scoring
- **Ocean acidification trajectory modeling** — fit pH decay models
  per scenario for marine ecosystem ML
- **Storm surge × SLR compound risk** — model `storm_surge_height_m` as
  function of baseline surge + regional_slr_mm for flood ML
- **Adaptation strategy selection ML** — train recommenders for
  cost-effective adaptation portfolios given location, scenario, and
  budget constraints; benchmark BCR and `damage_reduction_pct`
- **Maladaptation risk classification** — supervised learning on
  `maladaptation_risk_flag` from strategy_type, scenario, location
- **Climate-economy coupled modeling** — join emissions + adaptation +
  extreme events for integrated assessment ML pipelines
- **Physical climate risk for portfolio analysis** — aggregate
  location-level extreme event damages + SLR exposure to asset/portfolio
  level for TCFD physical risk disclosure
- **Net-zero year prediction** — classifier for `net_zero_year` given
  sector decline rates and CDR deployment trajectories

---

## Loading examples

```python
from datasets import load_dataset

temp = load_dataset("xpertsystems/enr007-sample", "temperature", split="train")
events = load_dataset("xpertsystems/enr007-sample", "extreme_events", split="train")
print(temp.shape, events.shape)
```

```python
import pandas as pd
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download

# Compare SSP scenario warming trajectories
temp = pd.read_parquet(hf_hub_download(
    "xpertsystems/enr007-sample", "ENR007_climate_all.parquet",
    repo_type="dataset",
))

# Mean GMST anomaly by year and scenario
trajectory = (
    temp.groupby(["scenario_id", "year"])["global_mean_temp_anomaly_C"]
    .mean()
    .unstack(level="scenario_id")
    .round(3)
)
print(trajectory.tail(10))  # last 10 years
```

```python
# Extreme event damages by scenario
import pandas as pd
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download

events = pd.read_parquet(hf_hub_download(
    "xpertsystems/enr007-sample", "ENR007_extreme_events_all.parquet",
    repo_type="dataset",
))

# Total damages by SSP scenario
damages = (
    events.groupby("scenario_id")
    .agg(
        total_damage_billion_USD=("economic_damage_USD", lambda x: x.sum() / 1e9),
        total_fatalities=("fatalities", "sum"),
        n_events=("event_id", "count"),
    )
    .round(2)
    .sort_values("total_damage_billion_USD", ascending=False)
)
print(damages)
```

```python
# Carbon budget trajectories
import pandas as pd
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download

emis = pd.read_parquet(hf_hub_download(
    "xpertsystems/enr007-sample", "ENR007_emissions_all.parquet",
    repo_type="dataset",
))

# 1.5°C budget remaining by year, per scenario (CO2-only)
budget_traj = (
    emis[emis["gas_type"] == "CO2"]
    .groupby(["scenario_id", "year"])["carbon_budget_remaining_1_5C_GtCO2"]
    .mean()
    .unstack(level="scenario_id")
    .round(1)
)
print(budget_traj.tail(10))
```

```python
# Sea level rise decomposition
import pandas as pd
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download

slr = pd.read_parquet(hf_hub_download(
    "xpertsystems/enr007-sample", "ENR007_sea_level_all.parquet",
    repo_type="dataset",
))

# Component contributions at terminal year
terminal = slr[slr["year"] == slr["year"].max()]
print(terminal.groupby("scenario_id").agg(
    gmsl_mm=("global_mean_sea_level_rise_mm", "mean"),
    thermal_mm=("thermal_expansion_mm", "mean"),
    ice_sheet_mm=("ice_sheet_contribution_mm", "mean"),
    glacier_mm=("glacier_contribution_mm", "mean"),
).round(1))
```

---

## Limitations and honest disclosures

This sample is calibrated for **structural fidelity, not bit-exact reproduction
of any specific CMIP6 model run.** Specifically:

- **Sample covers 30 years (2020-2049), not the full IPCC AR6 century**
  to 2100. SSP scenario divergence is most pronounced at 2080-2100;
  this sample shows early-divergence behavior. The full product extends
  to 2100. Per-scenario benchmarks for 2100 (from `SCENARIOS` dict in
  the generator) cannot be directly tested at this horizon.
- **Climate scenarios use prescribed 2050+2100 median benchmarks**
  with quadratic interpolation between (line 217-219 of generator).
  The shape of the trajectory between 2050 and 2100 is a simple
  quadratic, not an actual coupled climate-carbon cycle simulation.
  For coupled-system research, use CMIP6 model output directly.
- **Polar amplification is a single scalar per region_type** (line 188).
  Real polar amplification varies with season, depth (ocean), and feedback
  processes that this synthetic dataset does not model.
- **ENSO/PDO natural variability is a single AR(1) process** with φ=0.72
  (line 222). Real ENSO is non-Gaussian, has multi-decadal regime shifts,
  and interacts with PDO/AMO. Use as a low-fidelity natural-variability
  proxy.
- **Extreme event damages use Pareto tail with shape per event_type**
  (line 339). Compound and tail-risk dependence (e.g., heatwave
  conditional on drought) is not modeled beyond the single
  `Compound_Event` category.
- **`annual_emissions_MtCO2e` for non-CO2 gases is in native Mt of the
  gas, not Mt CO2-equivalent.** The generator splits emissions by gas
  via fixed fractions (0.75/0.17/0.06/0.02 for CO2/CH4/N2O/HFCs) and
  applies the sector decline rate. The reported value is gas-mass, not
  CO2e. The `gwp_100yr` column is provided for user-side conversion:
  CO2e = value × gwp. Don't compare raw `annual_emissions_MtCO2e` totals
  across gases without that multiplication.
- **`cumulative_emissions_GtCO2` accumulates CO2 only** (not CO2e of
  other gases). Matches AR6 budget convention but means the cumulative
  total is not all-GHG. The `carbon_budget_remaining_*` columns are
  CO2-only-budget-compatible.
- **`location_id`s do not match between scenarios.** Each scenario run
  generates a fresh location pool via `generate_locations(seed)`.
  Same seed → same locations across scenarios. Different seed → fresh
  locations. When comparing scenarios, group by (scenario_id, year)
  with aggregation, not on per-location panel.
- **Sea level coverage**: at sample scale, locations marked as
  `is_coastal=True` get full SLR records. The generator falls back to
  `locations.iloc[:max(1, len/3)]` if no coastal locations exist;
  at n=30 typically 10-15 coastal locations arise naturally.
- **`vertical_land_motion_mm_yr`** is sampled once per location and
  applied as `vlm * (yr - 2020)` (line 503). Real VLM has spatial
  correlation (subsidence basins) and can be non-linear over decades.
- **Adaptation strategies are independent draws per location** — no
  portfolio-level interactions or stacking benefits. Real adaptation
  often shows complementarity (e.g., Seawall + Wetland_Restoration
  combined is more effective than either alone).
- **`benefit_cost_ratio` and `bcr_mu` are scenario-warming-scaled**
  (line 576-578): higher warming → higher BCR (because there's more
  damage to avoid). Realistic but should not be interpreted as
  cost-effectiveness in a vacuum.
- **`net_zero_year` is hardcoded per scenario** in the SCENARIOS dict
  (SSP1-1.9: 2050, SSP1-2.6: 2065, SSP2-4.5: 2095, others: None for
  scenarios that never reach net zero). Sample data may not visibly
  show net zero achievement since horizon ends at 2049.
- **Carbon price 2030 EXACTLY matches** the scenario target by design
  (deterministic interpolation in the generator). Real policy paths
  show stochastic deviations from target prices.

The full ENR007 product addresses these by full 2100 horizon, expanded
location-pool location consistency across scenarios, multi-model CMIP6
ensemble draws, compound-event tail dependence modeling, and detailed
adaptation portfolio interactions — contact us for the licensed
commercial release.

---

## Companion datasets in the Energy & Climate vertical

- **ENR-001** — Synthetic Power Grid Operations Dataset (transmission
  bus telemetry, line flows, dispatch, frequency, contingency)
- **ENR-002** — Synthetic Renewable Energy Generation Dataset
  (utility-scale solar/wind/hybrid SCADA, weather, forecast, PCC, BESS)
- **ENR-003** — Synthetic Electricity Demand & Load Forecasting Dataset
  (zone-level demand, multi-horizon forecasts, peak events, EV/DER, TOU)
- **ENR-004** — Synthetic Upstream Oil & Gas Production Dataset
  (well-level production, decline curves, PVT, commodity prices,
  Subpart W methane)
- **ENR-005** — Synthetic Smart Grid Dataset (AMI, DER, OpenADR, feeder
  power flow, grid edge analytics)
- **ENR-006** — Synthetic Wholesale Energy Market Trading Dataset (spot
  prices, futures, ancillary services, bilateral PPAs, trading risk)
- **ENR-007** — Synthetic Climate Impact Dataset (you are here) — **the
  forward-looking climate forcing companion** to the rest of the
  Energy & Climate vertical: IPCC SSP scenario inputs that feed
  emissions intensity (ENR-004), renewable resource trends (ENR-002),
  demand load patterns (ENR-003), and grid stress events (ENR-001).

Use **ENR-004 + ENR-007** together for transition-risk + physical-risk
ML on fossil supply chains; combine with **ENR-001 + ENR-002 + ENR-003**
for end-to-end climate impact on physical grid + renewables + demand.

For subsurface companion data (seismic, well logs, reservoir simulation,
geological formations), see the **OIL series** (OIL-001 through OIL-004)
in our [Oil & Gas vertical](https://huggingface.co/xpertsystems).

For the broader catalog:
- [Materials & Energy](https://huggingface.co/xpertsystems) — MAT-001
- [Insurance & Risk](https://huggingface.co/xpertsystems) — 10 SKUs
- [Cybersecurity](https://huggingface.co/xpertsystems) — 11 SKUs

---

## Citation

```bibtex
@dataset{xpertsystems_enr007_sample_2026,
  author       = {XpertSystems.ai},
  title        = {ENR007 Synthetic Climate Impact Dataset (Sample Preview)},
  year         = 2026,
  publisher    = {Hugging Face},
  url          = {https://huggingface.co/datasets/xpertsystems/enr007-sample}
}
```

---

## Contact

- **Web:** https://xpertsystems.ai
- **Email:** pradeep@xpertsystems.ai
- **Full product catalog:** Cybersecurity, Insurance & Risk, Materials & Energy,
  Oil & Gas, Energy & Climate, and more

**Sample License:** CC-BY-NC-4.0 (Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0)
**Full product License:** Commercial — please contact for pricing.