#!/usr/bin/env python3 # ============================================================================= # make_figures.py # ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Responsible for: Turning the experiment JSON into the figures and tables that # the logbook presents (Table 1 comparison, Figure 4 heatmap, # Figure 7 intervention boxplots, RSES validity scatter). # Role in project: Runs after run_experiments.py, locally, on downloaded results. # Assumptions: Reads /claim{2,3,4,5}.json. Writes PNG + CSV to . # ============================================================================= """Figure generation for the EduMirror reproduction logbook. Design note on presentation honesty: every figure that compares our numbers to the paper's plots BOTH, and never rescales ours onto the paper's axis. Where we ran at reduced scale, the caption says so. The point of these figures is to let a reader see the ordering and the gap, not to make the reproduction look tidy. """ from __future__ import annotations import argparse import json from pathlib import Path import matplotlib matplotlib.use("Agg") # headless: these run in CI/jobs with no display import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import numpy as np METHODS = ["EduMirror", "LLMob", "BabyAGI", "D2A", "ReAct"] #: Paper Table 1, transcribed from arXiv:2606.07948. Used only for side-by-side #: display -- never mixed into our computed numbers. PAPER_TABLE1 = { "5": {"EduMirror": 4.80, "LLMob": 4.25, "BabyAGI": 4.10, "D2A": 3.35, "ReAct": 2.35}, "15": {"EduMirror": 4.18, "LLMob": 3.60, "BabyAGI": 3.57, "D2A": 3.53, "ReAct": 2.93}, "30": {"EduMirror": 4.03, "LLMob": 3.83, "BabyAGI": 3.86, "D2A": 3.12, "ReAct": 2.41}, } #: Consistent per-method colours across every figure. Categorical, colourblind-safe. COLORS = { "EduMirror": "#4C72B0", "LLMob": "#DD8452", "BabyAGI": "#55A868", "D2A": "#C44E52", "ReAct": "#8172B3", } def _spearman(x: list[float], y: list[float]) -> float: """ Spearman rank correlation between two equal-length sequences. Args: x: First series. y: Second series. Returns: Rank correlation in [-1, 1], or NaN if either series is constant. Why: Claim 2's substance is an ORDERING ("EduMirror scores highest"), not the absolute values -- which cannot transfer across a different backbone model anyway. Rank correlation against the paper's ordering is therefore the right statistic. We implement it directly to avoid a scipy dependency for one function. """ n = len(x) if n < 2: return float("nan") def rank(vals: list[float]) -> list[float]: order = sorted(range(n), key=lambda i: vals[i]) ranks = [0.0] * n i = 0 while i < n: j = i while j + 1 < n and vals[order[j + 1]] == vals[order[i]]: j += 1 avg = (i + j) / 2 + 1 # average rank for ties for k in range(i, j + 1): ranks[order[k]] = avg i = j + 1 return ranks rx, ry = rank(x), rank(y) mx, my = sum(rx) / n, sum(ry) / n num = sum((a - mx) * (b - my) for a, b in zip(rx, ry)) den = (sum((a - mx) ** 2 for a in rx) * sum((b - my) ** 2 for b in ry)) ** 0.5 return num / den if den else float("nan") def fig_claim2(results: dict, out: Path) -> dict: """ Grouped bar chart: our scores vs the paper's Table 1, per group size. Args: results: Parsed claim2.json. out: Output directory. Returns: A summary dict with per-size rank correlations and orderings. Why side-by-side rather than overlaid: Our absolute scores come from a different judge model than GPT-4o, so the levels are not comparable and overlaying them would invite a false reading. What IS comparable is the ordering of methods within each panel, which is what the claim asserts. """ table = results["table"] sizes = [s for s in ("5", "15", "30") if s in table] fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, len(sizes), figsize=(5 * len(sizes), 4.2), sharey=True) if len(sizes) == 1: axes = [axes] summary = {} for ax, size in zip(axes, sizes): ours = [table[size].get(m) for m in METHODS] theirs = [PAPER_TABLE1[size][m] for m in METHODS] x = np.arange(len(METHODS)) w = 0.38 ax.bar(x - w / 2, [o if o is not None else 0 for o in ours], w, label="This reproduction", color=[COLORS[m] for m in METHODS]) ax.bar(x + w / 2, theirs, w, label="Paper (Table 1)", color=[COLORS[m] for m in METHODS], alpha=0.42, hatch="//") ax.set_xticks(x) ax.set_xticklabels(METHODS, rotation=30, ha="right") ax.set_title(f"{size} agents") ax.set_ylim(1, 5) ax.grid(axis="y", alpha=0.3) valid = [(o, t, m) for o, t, m in zip(ours, theirs, METHODS) if o is not None] if len(valid) >= 3: rho = _spearman([v[0] for v in valid], [v[1] for v in valid]) else: rho = float("nan") ranked = [m for _, m in sorted( ((o, m) for o, _, m in valid), key=lambda p: -p[0])] summary[size] = { "ours": {m: table[size].get(m) for m in METHODS}, "paper": PAPER_TABLE1[size], "spearman_rho": None if rho != rho else round(rho, 3), "our_ranking": ranked, "paper_ranking": [m for m in sorted(METHODS, key=lambda m: -PAPER_TABLE1[size][m])], "edumirror_is_top_ours": bool(ranked and ranked[0] == "EduMirror"), } axes[0].set_ylabel("Average score (1-5)") handles = [ plt.Rectangle((0, 0), 1, 1, color="#666"), plt.Rectangle((0, 0), 1, 1, color="#666", alpha=0.42, hatch="//"), ] axes[-1].legend(handles, ["This reproduction", "Paper (Table 1)"], loc="upper right", fontsize=8) fig.suptitle( "Claim 2: kindergarten scalability -- average of Naturalness, Coherence,\n" "Plausibility, Developmental Typicality (higher is better)", fontsize=11, ) fig.tight_layout() out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) fig.savefig(out / "claim2_scalability.png", dpi=150) plt.close(fig) return summary def fig_claim4(results: dict, out: Path) -> dict: """ Win-rate heatmap: cell = win rate of the COLUMN method vs the ROW method. Args: results: Parsed claim4.json. out: Output directory. Returns: A summary dict of average win rates. Why this orientation: Figure 4's caption: "Each cell indicates the win rate of the column model relative to the row model". Matching the paper's orientation matters -- transposing it would silently invert every reading. """ matrix = results["matrix"] data = np.array([[matrix[r].get(c, float("nan")) for c in METHODS] for r in METHODS], dtype=float) fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(6.4, 5.4)) im = ax.imshow(data, cmap="RdYlBu_r", vmin=0, vmax=1) ax.set_xticks(range(len(METHODS))) ax.set_xticklabels(METHODS, rotation=30, ha="right") ax.set_yticks(range(len(METHODS))) ax.set_yticklabels(METHODS) ax.set_xlabel("Column model") ax.set_ylabel("Row model") for i in range(len(METHODS)): for j in range(len(METHODS)): v = data[i, j] if v == v: # not NaN ax.text(j, i, f"{v:.2f}", ha="center", va="center", color="white" if (v < 0.28 or v > 0.72) else "black", fontsize=9) else: ax.text(j, i, "--", ha="center", va="center", color="#999") fig.colorbar(im, ax=ax, label="Win rate of column vs row") ax.set_title(f"Claim 4: pairwise win rates across {results.get('n_scenarios', '?')} scenarios") fig.tight_layout() out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) fig.savefig(out / "claim4_heatmap.png", dpi=150) plt.close(fig) return {"average_win_rate": results.get("average_win_rate")} def fig_claim5(results: dict, out: Path) -> dict: """ Boxplot of malicious competition per intervention arm (paper Figure 7 shape). Args: results: Parsed claim5.json. out: Output directory. Returns: The per-arm summary dict. Why boxes + mean lines: Figure 7's caption: "Boxes show IQRs, whiskers show min-max, and red dashed lines indicate means". The claim is about SPREAD (interventions produce "lower variance and narrower ranges"; the control shows "the widest fluctuation"), so a bar chart of means would omit the very quantity being claimed. """ records = results["records"] arms = ["neglectful", "team_competition", "teacher_reminder", "pre_education"] labels = { "neglectful": "Control\n(Neglectful)", "team_competition": "Team\nCompetition", "teacher_reminder": "Teacher\nReminder", "pre_education": "Pre-\nEducation", } data, present = [], [] for arm in arms: vals = [r["malicious_competition"] for r in records if r["arm"] == arm and r.get("valid")] if vals: data.append(vals) present.append(arm) if not data: return {} fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(7.2, 4.6)) bp = ax.boxplot(data, tick_labels=[labels[a] for a in present], whis=(0, 100), showmeans=True, meanline=True, meanprops={"color": "red", "linestyle": "--", "linewidth": 1.6}, medianprops={"color": "#333"}) for patch, arm in zip(bp["boxes"], present): patch.set_color("#C44E52" if arm == "neglectful" else "#4C72B0") ax.set_ylabel("Malicious competition behaviours per episode") ax.set_title("Claim 5: intervention strategies vs. extreme competition\n" "(class monitor election; whiskers = min-max, red dashed = mean)") ax.grid(axis="y", alpha=0.3) fig.tight_layout() out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) fig.savefig(out / "claim5_interventions.png", dpi=150) plt.close(fig) return results.get("summary", {}) def fig_claim3(results: dict, out: Path) -> dict: """ Scatter of internal need change vs. external RSES change (construct validity). Args: results: Parsed claim3.json. out: Output directory. Returns: A summary with the correlation and n. Why a scatter and not a bar: The Claim 3 evidence is an association between two independently-measured quantities (delta-Value from the internal Value System, delta-RSES from the Surveyor's standard instrument). A scatter shows the association AND its scatter/outliers; a summary bar would hide whether a single point drives the correlation. """ records = [r for r in results["records"] if r.get("delta_rses") is not None] if len(records) < 2: return {"correlation": None, "n": len(records)} xs = [r["delta_value"] for r in records] ys = [r["delta_rses"] for r in records] arms = sorted({r["arm"] for r in records}) arm_colors = dict(zip(arms, ["#C44E52", "#DD8452", "#55A868", "#4C72B0"])) fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(6.4, 4.8)) for arm in arms: pts = [(r["delta_value"], r["delta_rses"]) for r in records if r["arm"] == arm] ax.scatter([p[0] for p in pts], [p[1] for p in pts], s=60, alpha=0.8, label=arm.replace("_", " "), color=arm_colors.get(arm)) if len(set(xs)) > 1: coef = np.polyfit(xs, ys, 1) xr = np.linspace(min(xs), max(xs), 50) ax.plot(xr, np.polyval(coef, xr), "--", color="#333", alpha=0.7, linewidth=1.2) ax.axhline(0, color="#bbb", linewidth=0.8) ax.axvline(0, color="#bbb", linewidth=0.8) ax.set_xlabel("Δ internal value (mean of 'self worth', 'sense of respect')") ax.set_ylabel("Δ RSES total (external instrument, 10-40)") ax.set_title("Claim 3: construct validity of the Individual Value System\n" "internal state vs. LLM Surveyor's Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale") ax.legend(fontsize=8) ax.grid(alpha=0.3) fig.tight_layout() out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) fig.savefig(out / "claim3_rses_validity.png", dpi=150) plt.close(fig) return { "pearson": results.get("delta_value_vs_delta_rses_correlation"), "spearman": round(_spearman(xs, ys), 3) if len(set(xs)) > 1 else None, "n": len(records), } def main() -> None: """Generate every figure whose source JSON is present.""" p = argparse.ArgumentParser() p.add_argument("--results", type=Path, required=True) p.add_argument("--out", type=Path, default=Path("figures")) args = p.parse_args() summary = {} for name, fn in (("claim2", fig_claim2), ("claim3", fig_claim3), ("claim4", fig_claim4), ("claim5", fig_claim5)): path = args.results / f"{name}.json" if not path.exists(): print(f"skip {name}: {path} not found") continue summary[name] = fn(json.loads(path.read_text()), args.out) print(f"{name}: {json.dumps(summary[name], indent=2, default=str)}") args.out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) (args.out / "summary.json").write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=2, default=str)) print(f"\nwrote figures + summary.json to {args.out}") if __name__ == "__main__": main()