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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy import stats
import os
def compute_ece(probs, labels, n_bins=15):
"""
Compute ECE (Expected Calibration Error)
Args:
probs: numpy array of shape [n_samples, n_classes] with probabilities
labels: numpy array of shape [n_samples] with ground truth labels
n_bins: number of bins for confidence histogram
Returns:
Expected Calibration Error
"""
bin_boundaries = np.linspace(0, 1, n_bins + 1)
bin_lowers = bin_boundaries[:-1]
bin_uppers = bin_boundaries[1:]
confidences = np.max(probs, axis=1)
predictions = np.argmax(probs, axis=1)
accuracies = (predictions == labels)
ece = 0.0
for bin_lower, bin_upper in zip(bin_lowers, bin_uppers):
in_bin = np.logical_and(confidences > bin_lower, confidences <= bin_upper)
prop_in_bin = np.mean(in_bin)
if prop_in_bin > 0:
accuracy_in_bin = np.mean(accuracies[in_bin])
avg_confidence_in_bin = np.mean(confidences[in_bin])
ece += np.abs(avg_confidence_in_bin - accuracy_in_bin) * prop_in_bin
return ece
def plot_enhanced_calibration_curve(probs, labels, method_name, plot_dir=None):
"""
Plot enhanced reliability diagram with confidence histograms
Args:
probs: numpy array of shape [n_samples, n_classes] with probabilities
labels: numpy array of shape [n_samples] with ground truth labels
method_name: string name of the calibration method for the title
plot_dir: directory to save the plot, if None, saves to "plots/"
"""
if plot_dir is None:
plot_dir = "plots"
os.makedirs(plot_dir, exist_ok=True)
n_bins = 15
# Get predicted confidence and check if prediction is correct
confidences = np.max(probs, axis=1)
predictions = np.argmax(probs, axis=1)
accuracies = (predictions == labels)
# Create figure with confidence histogram
fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 8))
# Plot calibration curve
bin_boundaries = np.linspace(0, 1, n_bins + 1)
bin_lowers = bin_boundaries[:-1]
bin_uppers = bin_boundaries[1:]
bin_centers = (bin_lowers + bin_uppers) / 2
true_probs = []
mean_confidences = []
sample_counts = []
for bin_lower, bin_upper in zip(bin_lowers, bin_uppers):
in_bin = np.logical_and(confidences > bin_lower, confidences <= bin_upper)
bin_count = np.sum(in_bin)
sample_counts.append(bin_count)
if bin_count > 0:
true_prob = np.mean(accuracies[in_bin])
mean_conf = np.mean(confidences[in_bin])
true_probs.append(true_prob)
mean_confidences.append(mean_conf)
else:
true_probs.append(0)
mean_confidences.append(bin_centers[len(mean_confidences)])
# Plot perfect calibration line
ax1.plot([0, 1], [0, 1], 'k--', label='Perfectly calibrated')
# Plot calibration curve
ax1.plot(mean_confidences, true_probs, 's-', label='Calibration curve')
# Add calibration metrics
ece = compute_ece(probs, labels)
ax1.set_xlabel('Mean predicted probability', fontsize=24)
ax1.set_ylabel('Fraction of positives', fontsize=24)
ax1.set_xlim([0, 1])
ax1.set_ylim([0, 1])
ax1.legend(loc='lower right', fontsize=24)
ax1.grid(True)
ax1.tick_params(axis='both', which='major', labelsize=24)
# Create confidence histogram on the same plot
ax2 = ax1.twinx()
# Plot separate histograms for correct and incorrect predictions
correct_confidences = confidences[accuracies]
incorrect_confidences = confidences[~accuracies]
ax2.hist([correct_confidences, incorrect_confidences], bins=20,
color=['green', 'red'], alpha=0.3, label=['Correct', 'Incorrect'],
stacked=True)
ax2.set_ylabel('Count', fontsize=24)
ax2.legend(loc='upper right', fontsize=24)
ax2.tick_params(axis='both', which='major', labelsize=24)
# Save the plot
plt.tight_layout()
save_path = os.path.join(plot_dir, f'calibration_{method_name.replace(" ", "_")}.pdf')
plt.savefig(save_path, format='pdf', dpi=1000, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.close()
return ece
def plot_logitsgap_analysis(test_logitsgap, model_name, plot_dir=None):
"""
Plot logitsgap distribution with CDF
Args:
test_logitsgap: array of logitsgap values
model_name: name of the model
plot_dir: directory to save the plot
"""
if plot_dir is None:
plot_dir = "plots"
os.makedirs(plot_dir, exist_ok=True)
# Plot detailed logitsgap distribution as a bar chart
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8))
# Create bins
num_bins = 20
logitsgap_hist, logitsgap_bin_edges = np.histogram(test_logitsgap, bins=num_bins, range=(0, 10))
logitsgap_bin_centers = 0.5 * (logitsgap_bin_edges[1:] + logitsgap_bin_edges[:-1])
# Create bin labels
logitsgap_bin_labels = [f"{logitsgap_bin_edges[i]:.1f}-{logitsgap_bin_edges[i+1]:.1f}"
for i in range(len(logitsgap_bin_edges)-1)]
plt.bar(logitsgap_bin_centers, logitsgap_hist,
width=(logitsgap_bin_edges[1] - logitsgap_bin_edges[0]) * 0.8,
alpha=0.7, label=f'{model_name}')
plt.xlabel('Logit Margin', fontsize=24)
plt.ylabel('Count', fontsize=24)
plt.grid(alpha=0.3)
plt.xticks(logitsgap_bin_centers, logitsgap_bin_labels, rotation=45, fontsize=24)
plt.yticks(fontsize=24)
plt.legend(fontsize=24)
plt.tight_layout()
save_path = os.path.join(plot_dir, 'detailed_logitsgap_distribution.pdf')
plt.savefig(save_path, format='pdf', dpi=1000, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.close()
return {
'bin_labels': logitsgap_bin_labels,
'bin_centers': logitsgap_bin_centers.tolist(),
'bin_edges': logitsgap_bin_edges.tolist(),
'counts': logitsgap_hist.tolist(),
'percentage': (logitsgap_hist / len(test_logitsgap) * 100).tolist()
}
def plot_temperature_distribution(temps, model_name, optimal_temp=None, plot_dir=None):
"""
Plot temperature distribution
Args:
temps: array of temperature values
model_name: name of the model
optimal_temp: optimal temperature from TS (optional)
plot_dir: directory to save the plot
"""
if plot_dir is None:
plot_dir = "plots"
os.makedirs(plot_dir, exist_ok=True)
# Calculate range
temp_min = float(np.min(temps))
temp_max = float(np.max(temps))
temp_range = (max(0.1, temp_min - 0.1), temp_max + 0.1)
# Create histogram
temp_hist, temp_bin_edges = np.histogram(temps, bins=20, range=temp_range)
temp_bin_centers = 0.5 * (temp_bin_edges[1:] + temp_bin_edges[:-1])
# Create bin labels
temp_bin_labels = [f"{temp_bin_edges[i]:.2f}-{temp_bin_edges[i+1]:.2f}"
for i in range(len(temp_bin_edges)-1)]
# Plot temperature distribution
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 8))
plt.bar(temp_bin_centers, temp_hist,
width=(temp_bin_edges[1] - temp_bin_edges[0]) * 0.8,
alpha=0.7, label=f'{model_name}')
plt.xlabel('Temperature', fontsize=24)
plt.ylabel('Count', fontsize=24)
plt.grid(alpha=0.3)
plt.xticks(temp_bin_centers, temp_bin_labels, rotation=45, fontsize=24)
plt.yticks(fontsize=24)
if optimal_temp is not None:
plt.axvline(x=optimal_temp, color='r', linestyle='--',
label=f'TS temp: {optimal_temp:.4f}')
plt.legend(fontsize=24)
plt.tight_layout()
save_path = os.path.join(plot_dir, 'detailed_temperature_distribution.pdf')
plt.savefig(save_path, format='pdf', dpi=1000, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.close()
return {
'bin_labels': temp_bin_labels,
'bin_centers': temp_bin_centers.tolist(),
'bin_edges': temp_bin_edges.tolist(),
'counts': temp_hist.tolist(),
'percentage': (temp_hist / len(temps) * 100).tolist()
}
def plot_logitsgap_temperature_relationship(test_logitsgap, temps, model_name, optimal_temp=None, plot_dir=None):
"""
Plot relationship between logitsgap and temperature
Args:
test_logitsgap: array of logitsgap values
temps: array of temperature values
model_name: name of the model
optimal_temp: optimal temperature from TS (optional)
plot_dir: directory to save the plot
"""
if plot_dir is None:
plot_dir = "plots"
os.makedirs(plot_dir, exist_ok=True)
# Calculate correlation and regression
logitsgap_temp_corr, logitsgap_temp_pvalue = stats.pearsonr(test_logitsgap, temps)
slope, intercept, r_value, p_value, std_err = stats.linregress(test_logitsgap, temps)
# Plot density heatmap
plt.figure(figsize=(14, 10))
plt.hexbin(test_logitsgap, temps, gridsize=30, cmap='viridis', mincnt=1)
cbar = plt.colorbar(label='Count')
cbar.ax.tick_params(labelsize=24)
cbar.set_label('Count', fontsize=24)
# Add regression line
plt.plot(np.array([min(test_logitsgap), max(test_logitsgap)]),
intercept + slope * np.array([min(test_logitsgap), max(test_logitsgap)]),
'r-', linewidth=3, label=f'Regression line (r={r_value:.2f})')
plt.xlabel('Logit Margin', fontsize=24)
plt.ylabel('Temperature', fontsize=24)
if optimal_temp is not None:
plt.axhline(y=optimal_temp, color='r', linestyle='--', linewidth=2,
label=f'TS temp={optimal_temp:.2f}')
plt.legend(fontsize=24)
plt.grid(alpha=0.3)
plt.xticks(fontsize=24)
plt.yticks(fontsize=24)
plt.tight_layout()
save_path = os.path.join(plot_dir, 'logitsgap_temperature_density_map.pdf')
plt.savefig(save_path, format='pdf', dpi=1000, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.close()
# Plot regular scatter plot with CDF
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 10))
# logitsgap distribution
plt.subplot(2, 1, 1)
counts, bins, _ = plt.hist(test_logitsgap, bins=30, alpha=0.7, label=f'{model_name}')
plt.xlabel('Logit Margin', fontsize=24)
plt.ylabel('Count', fontsize=24)
plt.legend(fontsize=24)
plt.xticks(fontsize=24)
plt.yticks(fontsize=24)
# Add Quantiles
quantiles = [0.25, 0.5, 0.75]
quantile_values = np.quantile(test_logitsgap, quantiles)
for i, q in enumerate(quantiles):
plt.axvline(x=quantile_values[i], color='r', linestyle='--',
alpha=0.5, label=f'{int(q*100)}th percentile' if i == 0 else "")
# Plot CDF
ax2 = plt.gca().twinx()
cdf = np.cumsum(counts) / np.sum(counts)
bin_centers = 0.5 * (bins[1:] + bins[:-1])
ax2.plot(bin_centers, cdf, 'g-', label='CDF')
ax2.set_ylabel('Cumulative Probability', fontsize=24)
ax2.set_ylim([0, 1])
ax2.tick_params(axis='both', which='major', labelsize=24)
plt.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=24)
# logitsgap vs temperature
plt.subplot(2, 1, 2)
plt.scatter(test_logitsgap, temps, alpha=0.3, label=f'{model_name} samples')
# Add regression line
plt.plot(np.array([min(test_logitsgap), max(test_logitsgap)]),
intercept + slope * np.array([min(test_logitsgap), max(test_logitsgap)]),
'r', label=f'Regression line (r={r_value:.2f})')
plt.xlabel('Logit Margin', fontsize=24)
plt.ylabel('Temperature', fontsize=24)
if optimal_temp is not None:
plt.axhline(y=optimal_temp, color='r', linestyle='-', label=f'TS temp={optimal_temp:.2f}')
plt.legend(fontsize=24)
plt.xticks(fontsize=24)
plt.yticks(fontsize=24)
plt.tight_layout()
save_path = os.path.join(plot_dir, 'logitsgap_temperature_mapping.pdf')
plt.savefig(save_path, format='pdf', dpi=1000, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.close()
return {
'logitsgap_temperature_correlation': float(logitsgap_temp_corr),
'logitsgap_temperature_pvalue': float(logitsgap_temp_pvalue),
'regression': {
'slope': float(slope),
'intercept': float(intercept),
'r_value': float(r_value),
'p_value': float(p_value),
'std_err': float(std_err)
}
}
def plot_confidence_distribution(probs_dict, model_name, plot_dir=None):
"""
Plot confidence distribution for different methods
Args:
probs_dict: dictionary mapping method names to probability arrays
model_name: name of the model
plot_dir: directory to save the plot
"""
if plot_dir is None:
plot_dir = "plots"
os.makedirs(plot_dir, exist_ok=True)
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 8))
hist_data = []
labels = []
for method, probs in probs_dict.items():
hist_data.append(np.max(probs, axis=1))
labels.append(method)
plt.hist(hist_data, bins=20, alpha=0.7, label=labels)
plt.xlabel('Confidence', fontsize=24)
plt.ylabel('Count', fontsize=24)
plt.legend(fontsize=24)
plt.grid(alpha=0.3)
plt.xticks(fontsize=24)
plt.yticks(fontsize=24)
save_path = os.path.join(plot_dir, 'confidence_distribution.pdf')
plt.savefig(save_path, format='pdf', dpi=1000, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.close()
def plot_confidence_change(uncal_probs, calibrated_probs_dict, test_logitsgap, model_name, plot_dir=None,
color_by_prediction_groups=False, labels=None, top_k=2):
"""
Plot confidence change vs logitsgap for different methods
Args:
uncal_probs: uncalibrated probabilities
calibrated_probs_dict: dictionary mapping method names to calibrated probability arrays
test_logitsgap: array of logitsgap values
model_name: name of the model
plot_dir: directory to save the plot
color_by_prediction_groups: whether to color points by prediction correctness and logits gap groups
labels: true labels (required if color_by_prediction_groups=True)
top_k: number of top predictions to consider (required if color_by_prediction_groups=True)
"""
if plot_dir is None:
plot_dir = "plots"
os.makedirs(plot_dir, exist_ok=True)
# Validation for color grouping
if color_by_prediction_groups and (labels is None):
raise ValueError("labels must be provided when color_by_prediction_groups=True")
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 10))
num_methods = len(calibrated_probs_dict)
method_idx = 0
for method, probs in calibrated_probs_dict.items():
conf_change = np.max(probs, axis=1) - np.max(uncal_probs, axis=1)
plt.subplot(num_methods, 1, method_idx + 1)
if not color_by_prediction_groups:
# Original coloring - single color for all points
plt.scatter(test_logitsgap, conf_change, alpha=0.3, label=method)
else:
# New coloring scheme based on prediction correctness and logits gap
# Convert logitsgap to array and handle different formats
test_logitsgap_array = np.array(test_logitsgap)
# If logitsgap is a list of lists (gap vectors), take the first element of each
if test_logitsgap_array.ndim > 1:
# For gap vectors, take the first gap (largest gap)
test_logitsgap_array = test_logitsgap_array[:, 0]
print(f"Processing method: {method}")
print(f"Logitsgap array shape: {test_logitsgap_array.shape}")
print(f"Logitsgap sample values: {test_logitsgap_array[:5]}")
print(f"Confidence change shape: {conf_change.shape}")
print(f"Labels shape: {labels.shape}")
print(f"Top_k: {top_k}")
# Get predictions
predictions = np.argmax(uncal_probs, axis=1)
# Sort predictions by confidence to get top-k
sorted_indices = np.argsort(uncal_probs, axis=1)[:, ::-1] # Sort in descending order
# Determine prediction correctness
correct_predictions = (predictions == labels)
# Group by logits gap size (3 groups)
n_samples = len(test_logitsgap_array)
n_groups = 3
group_size = n_samples // n_groups
# Sort indices by logits gap for grouping
gap_sorted_indices = np.argsort(test_logitsgap_array)
# Define color schemes
# For correct predictions: use blue shades (light blue for small gap, dark blue for large gap)
correct_small_gap_color = '#ADD8E6' # Light blue
correct_large_gap_color = '#000080' # Navy blue
# For incorrect predictions in top k: use green shades
incorrect_in_topk_small_gap_color = '#90EE90' # Light green
incorrect_in_topk_large_gap_color = '#006400' # Dark green
# For incorrect predictions not in top k: use red shades
incorrect_not_in_topk_small_gap_color = '#FFB6C1' # Light pink
incorrect_not_in_topk_large_gap_color = '#8B0000' # Dark red
# Create mapping from sample index to gap group
gap_groups = {}
for rank_idx in range(n_samples):
sample_idx = int(gap_sorted_indices[rank_idx]) # Convert to int to ensure hashable
if rank_idx < group_size:
gap_groups[sample_idx] = 1 # Small gap
elif rank_idx >= n_samples - group_size:
gap_groups[sample_idx] = 3 # Large gap
else:
gap_groups[sample_idx] = 2 # Middle group (will be skipped)
# Collect points by category for batch plotting
categories = {
'Correct (Small Gap)': {'x': [], 'y': [], 'color': correct_small_gap_color},
'Correct (Large Gap)': {'x': [], 'y': [], 'color': correct_large_gap_color},
'Incorrect (In Top-k, Small Gap)': {'x': [], 'y': [], 'color': incorrect_in_topk_small_gap_color},
'Incorrect (In Top-k, Large Gap)': {'x': [], 'y': [], 'color': incorrect_in_topk_large_gap_color},
'Incorrect (Not in Top-k, Small Gap)': {'x': [], 'y': [], 'color': incorrect_not_in_topk_small_gap_color},
'Incorrect (Not in Top-k, Large Gap)': {'x': [], 'y': [], 'color': incorrect_not_in_topk_large_gap_color}
}
# Categorize points
for sample_idx in range(n_samples):
gap_value = test_logitsgap_array[sample_idx]
conf_change_value = conf_change[sample_idx]
# Get gap group for this sample
gap_group = gap_groups.get(sample_idx, 2)
if gap_group == 2:
continue # Skip middle group as requested
if correct_predictions[sample_idx]:
# Correct prediction - use blue shades
if gap_group == 1: # Small gap
category = 'Correct (Small Gap)'
else: # Large gap (group 3)
category = 'Correct (Large Gap)'
else:
# Incorrect prediction - check if true label is in top k
top_k_predictions = sorted_indices[sample_idx, :top_k]
true_label_in_topk = labels[sample_idx] in top_k_predictions
if true_label_in_topk:
# True label in top k - use green shades
if gap_group == 1: # Small gap
category = 'Incorrect (In Top-k, Small Gap)'
else: # Large gap (group 3)
category = 'Incorrect (In Top-k, Large Gap)'
else:
# True label not in top k - use red shades
if gap_group == 1: # Small gap
category = 'Incorrect (Not in Top-k, Small Gap)'
else: # Large gap (group 3)
category = 'Incorrect (Not in Top-k, Large Gap)'
categories[category]['x'].append(gap_value)
categories[category]['y'].append(conf_change_value)
# Plot each category
for category, data in categories.items():
if len(data['x']) > 0: # Only plot if there are points in this category
print(f"Plotting {len(data['x'])} points for category: {category}")
plt.scatter(data['x'], data['y'], alpha=0.6, color=data['color'], s=10, label=category)
else:
print(f"No points found for category: {category}")
print(f"Total samples: {n_samples}, Group size: {group_size}")
print(f"Gap groups distribution: {list(gap_groups.values()).count(1)} small, {list(gap_groups.values()).count(2)} middle, {list(gap_groups.values()).count(3)} large")
plt.axhline(y=0, color='k', linestyle='--')
plt.xlabel('Logit Margin', fontsize=24)
plt.ylabel('Conf Change', fontsize=24)
if color_by_prediction_groups:
plt.legend(fontsize=18, bbox_to_anchor=(1.05, 1), loc='upper left')
else:
plt.legend(fontsize=24)
plt.grid(alpha=0.3)
plt.xticks(fontsize=24)
plt.yticks(fontsize=24)
plt.title(f'{method}', fontsize=26)
method_idx += 1
plt.tight_layout()
save_path = os.path.join(plot_dir, 'logitsgap_vs_confidence_change.pdf')
plt.savefig(save_path, format='pdf', dpi=1000, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.close()
def plot_logitsgap_by_correctness(test_logitsgap, probs, labels, model_name, plot_dir=None):
"""
Plot logitsgap distribution separated by prediction correctness
Args:
test_logitsgap: array of logitsgap values
probs: predicted probabilities
labels: true labels
model_name: name of the model
plot_dir: directory to save the plot
"""
if plot_dir is None:
plot_dir = "plots"
os.makedirs(plot_dir, exist_ok=True)
correct = (np.argmax(probs, axis=1) == labels)
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 8))
plt.hist([np.array(test_logitsgap)[correct], np.array(test_logitsgap)[~correct]],
bins=20, alpha=0.7, label=['Correct', 'Incorrect'])
plt.xlabel('Logit Margin', fontsize=24)
plt.ylabel('Count', fontsize=24)
plt.legend(fontsize=24)
plt.grid(alpha=0.3)
plt.xticks(fontsize=24)
plt.yticks(fontsize=24)
save_path = os.path.join(plot_dir, 'logitsgap_by_correctness.pdf')
plt.savefig(save_path, format='pdf', dpi=1000, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.close()
def plot_performance_by_logitsgap(ece_by_group, acc_by_group, group_names, plot_dir=None):
"""
Plot calibration and accuracy performance by logitsgap level
Args:
ece_by_group: dictionary mapping method names to ECE values by group
acc_by_group: dictionary mapping method names to accuracy values by group
group_names: names of logitsgap groups
plot_dir: directory to save the plot
"""
if plot_dir is None:
plot_dir = "plots"
os.makedirs(plot_dir, exist_ok=True)
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
x = np.arange(len(group_names))
width = 0.25
# ECE subplot
plt.subplot(2, 1, 1)
offset = -width
for method, ece_values in ece_by_group.items():
plt.bar(x + offset, ece_values, width, label=method)
offset += width
plt.xlabel('Logit Margin Group', fontsize=24)
plt.ylabel('ECE (lower is better)', fontsize=24)
plt.xticks(x, group_names, fontsize=24)
plt.yticks(fontsize=24)
plt.legend(fontsize=24)
plt.grid(axis='y', linestyle='--', alpha=0.7)
# Accuracy subplot
plt.subplot(2, 1, 2)
offset = -width
for method, acc_values in acc_by_group.items():
plt.bar(x + offset, acc_values, width, label=method)
offset += width
plt.xlabel('Logit Margin Group', fontsize=24)
plt.ylabel('Accuracy (higher is better)', fontsize=24)
plt.xticks(x, group_names, fontsize=24)
plt.yticks(fontsize=24)
plt.legend(fontsize=24)
plt.grid(axis='y', linestyle='--', alpha=0.7)
plt.tight_layout()
save_path = os.path.join(plot_dir, 'performance_by_logitsgap.pdf')
plt.savefig(save_path, format='pdf', dpi=1000, bbox_inches='tight')
plt.close() |