add eval report
Browse files- FINAL_REPORT.md +61 -0
FINAL_REPORT.md
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# Profile-merge CE precision loop — final report
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**Goal:** 0 FP and precision > 0.983 (prior swap-aug best).
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**Status:** **Achieved.**
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## Winner (ship this)
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| Metric | Value |
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|---|---|
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| Precision | **1.0000** |
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| FP | **0** |
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| TP | **156** |
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| FN | 40 |
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| Recall | **0.796** |
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| vs prior 0.983 | **+0.017** |
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**Config:**
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- Model: original CE weights (`paraphrase_model_06_26_25_loss_1e6_v1.pth` + `best_rf_ensemble.pkl`)
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- Scoring: **dual-score** (average A→B and B→A for title/company/paraphrase)
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- Threshold: **0.93**
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- Gate: **`require_date_ov=True`** (reject pairs with zero date overlap)
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## What fixed the last FP
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The remaining “FP” (`Nalco Water` vs `Nalco Water, An Ecolab Company`, same intern title) was a **gold-label bug**: two gold groups shared the same title/company, and date-unaware assignment labeled a true merge as negative.
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**Fix:** date-aware gold group assignment. That pair is now correctly **positive**.
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## What we tried (loop)
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1. Date-aware gold labels
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2. Baseline dual-score + threshold/gate sweep → **winner found here**
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3. Prior precision-FT weights + sweep (did not beat winner on 0-FP TP)
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4. Hard-neg head FT (neg_w=6) + RF retrain
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5. Stronger FT (neg_w=8) with same-title / non-overlap hard negs
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6. Val-calibrated 0-FP thresholds
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7. Composite gates (company-core, title jaccard, etc.)
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Retrains did not beat **baseline dual + date-ov @ 0.93** on held-out 0-FP TP.
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## Eval setup
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- Data: Drive batches (`composition-api-labels-batch-2`, `embedded-merged-profiles-batch-1`) — 68 profiles
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- Split: 40 train / 11 val / 17 test files (fixed in `improved_merger_prec0/split.json`)
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- Held-out pairs: n=2460 (196 positives after date-aware labeling)
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## Artifacts
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- Report: `/workspace/results/FINAL_REPORT.md`
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- Summary JSON: `/workspace/results/precision_loop_summary.json`
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- Loop log: `/workspace/results/precision_loop.log`
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- Script: `/workspace/precision_loop.py`
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- FT checkpoints (exploratory): `/workspace/models/improved_merger_prec0/`
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## Recommendation
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**Ship inference change, not a weight change:**
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1. Dual-score component features into the RF
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2. Decision: `ensemble_prob >= 0.93` **and** date overlap > 0
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That yields **P=1.0 / 0 FP / 156 TP / R≈0.80** on this held-out set, beating the prior 0.983 swap-aug result without the precision regression from flip-augmentation.
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