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calibrated_model_v2.json

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+{
+  "model": "LogisticRegression(C=1.0)",
+  "features": [
+    "burstiness_B",
+    "time_entropy",
+    "night_intensity",
+    "hawkes_n",
+    "weekend_ratio"
+  ],
+  "coefficients": {
+    "burstiness_B": 0.8374956578895095,
+    "time_entropy": 1.2579741402848228,
+    "night_intensity": 0.5837684113680046,
+    "hawkes_n": 0.9223635321857693,
+    "weekend_ratio": 0.20416030303581986
+  },
+  "intercept": 0.25308770940252606,
+  "scaler_mean": {
+    "burstiness_B": 0.19487084107773855,
+    "time_entropy": 3.7942938624255387,
+    "night_intensity": 0.1255963970857874,
+    "hawkes_n": 0.8821584461279186,
+    "weekend_ratio": 0.6597237315034026
+  },
+  "scaler_std": {
+    "burstiness_B": 0.16343717667166913,
+    "time_entropy": 0.26226267912207385,
+    "night_intensity": 0.10005082150675923,
+    "hawkes_n": 0.06984404222741004,
+    "weekend_ratio": 0.1559336662101948
+  },
+  "validation": {
+    "method": "leave-one-out",
+    "n_samples": 32,
+    "n_compulsive_labels": 15,
+    "n_strategic_labels": 17,
+    "accuracy": 0.9062,
+    "f1": 0.8966,
+    "auc": 0.9333,
+    "brier_score": 0.1007,
+    "spearman_r": 0.9117,
+    "spearman_p": 0.0,
+    "pearson_r": 0.8831,
+    "pearson_p": 0.0
+  },
+  "independent_labels": {
+    "Trump_Android": {
+      "label": 1.0,
+      "evidence_type": "staff_testimony"
+    },
+    "Trump_Full": {
+      "label": 0.8,
+      "evidence_type": "staff_testimony"
+    },
+    "BasedMikeLee": {
+      "label": 0.9,
+      "evidence_type": "public_behavior"
+    },
+    "SenTedCruz": {
+      "label": 0.7,
+      "evidence_type": "public_behavior"
+    },
+    "ChrisMurphyCT": {
+      "label": 0.65,
+      "evidence_type": "self_statement"
+    },
+    "HawleyMO": {
+      "label": 0.65,
+      "evidence_type": "public_behavior"
+    },
+    "marcorubio": {
+      "label": 0.6,
+      "evidence_type": "public_behavior"
+    },
+    "MarshaBlackburn": {
+      "label": 0.6,
+      "evidence_type": "public_behavior"
+    },
+    "SenSchumer": {
+      "label": 0.45,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "SenWarren": {
+      "label": 0.5,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "SenSanders": {
+      "label": 0.45,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "ossoff": {
+      "label": 0.55,
+      "evidence_type": "demographic"
+    },
+    "SenRonJohnson": {
+      "label": 0.6,
+      "evidence_type": "public_behavior"
+    },
+    "SenatorHagerty": {
+      "label": 0.55,
+      "evidence_type": "volume_based"
+    },
+    "SenBlumenthal": {
+      "label": 0.5,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "SenRickScott": {
+      "label": 0.6,
+      "evidence_type": "public_behavior"
+    },
+    "SenFeinstein": {
+      "label": 0.1,
+      "evidence_type": "health_status"
+    },
+    "SenatorRisch": {
+      "label": 0.15,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "SenatorTester": {
+      "label": 0.2,
+      "evidence_type": "demographic"
+    },
+    "SenGillibrand": {
+      "label": 0.2,
+      "evidence_type": "pattern_based"
+    },
+    "SenHydeSmith": {
+      "label": 0.15,
+      "evidence_type": "demographic"
+    },
+    "SenShelby": {
+      "label": 0.1,
+      "evidence_type": "health_status"
+    },
+    "SenJohnHoeven": {
+      "label": 0.15,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "SenatorCollins": {
+      "label": 0.25,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "SenAngusKing": {
+      "label": 0.2,
+      "evidence_type": "demographic"
+    },
+    "SenThomTillis": {
+      "label": 0.25,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "SenatorWarnock": {
+      "label": 0.4,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "ChuckGrassley": {
+      "label": 0.35,
+      "evidence_type": "mixed"
+    },
+    "SenTuberville": {
+      "label": 0.5,
+      "evidence_type": "public_behavior"
+    },
+    "SenatorSinema": {
+      "label": 0.3,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "timkaine": {
+      "label": 0.35,
+      "evidence_type": "role_based"
+    },
+    "maziehirono": {
+      "label": 0.4,
+      "evidence_type": "public_behavior"
+    }
+  }
+}

cohort_v2_results.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+account,independent_label,evidence_type,n_tweets,burstiness_B,time_entropy,night_intensity,hawkes_n,weekend_ratio,p_compulsive_old,loo_probability,loo_prediction,correct
+Trump_Android,1.0,staff_testimony,14545,0.5253151861781247,4.284990749399817,0.3969749054657958,0.9798360265680514,1.033448438141054,0.8823061825550056,0.9995282568001254,1,True
+BasedMikeLee,0.9,public_behavior,49415,0.7545326278796666,4.208015373082699,0.40184154608924416,0.9837007722574105,0.8377908084105669,0.9406263649632571,0.9997488543854781,1,True
+Trump_Full,0.8,staff_testimony,32797,0.6452797417842915,4.412102033911361,0.22367899503003325,0.9769165070058401,0.7814768927434289,0.875071775820615,0.9994507844629744,1,True
+SenTedCruz,0.7,public_behavior,1723,0.23902570871834355,3.961771111478407,0.1323273360417876,0.9504588739607008,0.4073355263157895,0.6980689954332613,0.8479274334030962,1,True
+ChrisMurphyCT,0.65,self_statement,1283,0.19841235471107352,4.146720586553414,0.20187061574434917,0.933657627820327,0.703444490188006,0.7509103949248175,0.9558432547527679,1,True
+HawleyMO,0.65,public_behavior,499,0.24958015504551243,3.9194049186207964,0.14228456913827656,0.8735398679532758,0.7014571331751949,0.7228518121340829,0.7287662635571048,1,True
+marcorubio,0.6,public_behavior,766,0.2524741167614851,4.219965321149076,0.1566579634464752,0.9219944937289691,0.7440161104718067,0.7678070462143948,0.9655603519736861,1,True
+MarshaBlackburn,0.6,public_behavior,2050,0.1552696510988397,3.9837981267630704,0.17317073170731706,0.9605718903940886,0.47376398959149135,0.6948594811223766,0.868602252746383,1,True
+SenRickScott,0.6,public_behavior,1768,0.21273313069435756,3.7595068410793817,0.06108597285067873,0.9489232548056078,0.5071542609271922,0.6173744057233893,0.5342866523649965,1,True
+SenRonJohnson,0.6,public_behavior,668,0.19789789231727334,3.8938727937312203,0.22904191616766467,0.884582107631078,0.5644453876627051,0.7241282327602304,0.7369155073023941,1,True
+ossoff,0.55,demographic,234,0.21904136369962382,3.9704484557805846,0.21367521367521367,0.804857621440536,0.7844827586206896,0.7656385352114722,0.5901434473850545,1,True
+SenatorHagerty,0.55,volume_based,2318,0.15259389503350335,3.9437053780449203,0.24115616911130286,0.9613962012662446,0.641940019824347,0.7509856202730343,0.9105920920827276,1,True
+SenWarren,0.5,role_based,1147,0.08479070056077428,3.7142206990811903,0.1037489102005231,0.9222629222629223,0.5281018518518519,0.6248834939814195,0.29305285610584564,0,False
+SenBlumenthal,0.5,role_based,1206,0.23807031317051383,3.871889948479041,0.2064676616915423,0.9280468143548098,0.669378488317094,0.7310212339543097,0.8585698570389514,1,True
+SenTuberville,0.5,public_behavior,554,0.2073534634362099,3.657933570692061,0.04151624548736462,0.8644275557734739,0.6398437499999999,0.5990376626574258,0.1604527758211934,0,False
+SenSanders,0.45,role_based,647,0.10025116316840842,3.7382934824373955,0.07418856259659969,0.8775355450236967,0.5628926427474522,0.607775691195286,0.2972688969663503,0,True
+SenSchumer,0.45,role_based,1486,0.2265144996180037,3.76182693580581,0.17160161507402422,0.9426707331197158,0.4464350655565126,0.707563080011583,0.8668381115799698,1,False
+SenatorWarnock,0.4,role_based,1178,0.1584854250612732,3.565837299712841,0.0730050933786078,0.9253551496702181,0.5068481944606754,0.6000383210120381,0.3184687866607865,0,True
+maziehirono,0.4,public_behavior,369,0.10389212636171098,3.7798719482119463,0.17886178861788618,0.8042553191489362,0.7337278106508875,0.682259651830742,0.356803934531966,0,True
+ChuckGrassley,0.35,mixed,861,0.13528728427939513,3.743853184194203,0.07897793263646923,0.9001161440185831,0.5906270279039585,0.6210663896708069,0.4335038105016517,0,True
+timkaine,0.35,role_based,378,0.09524200924650035,3.846581639657247,0.08994708994708994,0.8036458333333333,0.6658878504672897,0.6257534000062938,0.26143777613713515,0,True
+SenatorSinema,0.3,role_based,790,-0.03545462826187027,3.4408244684369844,0.06835443037974684,0.8893097643097643,0.878553624968392,0.6037466869640169,0.09048716954917041,0,True
+SenatorCollins,0.25,role_based,232,0.09764735011166781,3.785114614422353,0.08620689655172414,0.72,0.9807692307692308,0.6322980420959895,0.12358874533253003,0,True
+SenThomTillis,0.25,role_based,435,0.14957940271872747,3.6429258572680925,0.034482758620689655,0.8333333333333334,0.6634657354866871,0.5858000790798102,0.1432185410383968,0,True
+SenGillibrand,0.2,pattern_based,524,-0.017533957525227656,3.632842523682244,0.03625954198473282,0.8443915501338887,0.6962025316455697,0.5746443007024875,0.07591477553029498,0,True
+SenatorTester,0.2,demographic,604,0.12048563517633806,3.4525234462090433,0.039735099337748346,0.8724079559881507,0.551470588235294,0.5642272020191504,0.07788975829813666,0,True
+SenAngusKing,0.2,demographic,445,0.12786821480682756,3.618418207603142,0.024719101123595506,0.8271701050992604,0.7352829110306726,0.5828653557536108,0.11319226253636876,0,True
+SenatorRisch,0.15,role_based,462,0.17832433600182634,3.4591774752403817,0.015151515151515152,0.834529791816224,0.513530522341095,0.5458959564095442,0.05568689217143582,0,True
+SenHydeSmith,0.15,demographic,553,0.03903979866952534,3.6503894273604685,0.018083182640144666,0.8526821457165733,0.6369230769230769,0.5654565962665936,0.09967004694404562,0,True
+SenJohnHoeven,0.15,role_based,330,0.05252092123115066,3.6349489923808225,0.048484848484848485,0.7715277777777778,0.6592713209851414,0.5741204562695057,0.04318520630546963,0,True
+SenShelby,0.1,health_status,205,0.1351874084196579,3.401485372907101,0.02926829268292683,0.7272727272727273,0.89586969168121,0.5718305322286668,0.014849295164661764,0,True
+SenFeinstein,0.1,health_status,914,0.23615962431412627,3.3141428142401184,0.0262582056892779,0.9076938631078758,0.3753216760145167,0.5423587988964276,0.09624448505443964,0,True