model_config.json

{
  "model_type": "SARIMAX",
  "order": [
    2,
    1,
    1
  ],
  "seasonal_order": [
    2,
    0,
    2,
    12
  ],
  "seasonal_period": 12,
  "target": "water_level",
  "exog_cols": [
    "temperature",
    "precipitation",
    "wind_speed"
  ],
  "enforce_stationarity": false,
  "enforce_invertibility": false,
  "train_period": {
    "start": "1944-01-01",
    "end": "2015-10-01",
    "n_obs": 862
  },
  "test_period": {
    "start": "2015-11-01",
    "end": "2023-10-01",
    "n_obs": 96
  },
  "test_metrics": {
    "RMSE": 5.154,
    "MAE": 4.1969,
    "MAPE_pct": 6.5844,
    "R2": -0.3826,
    "NSE": -0.3826
  },
  "bayesian_optimization": {
    "n_trials": 50,
    "sampler": "Optuna TPE",
    "criterion": "val_RMSE",
    "best_val_RMSE": 3.9723,
    "best_AIC": 4623.9461
  },
  "notes": "Basic SARIMAX \u2014 raw exog only, no lag features. Oracle exog assumption at forecast time."
}