model_config.json

{
  "model_type": "TCN",
  "architecture": "TCN(nb_filters=32, kernel_size=3, dilations=[1, 2, 4, 8]) \u2192 Dense(1)",
  "framework": "TensorFlow/Keras (keras-tcn)",
  "task": "Single-step monthly groundwater level forecasting",
  "features": [
    "water_level",
    "temperature",
    "precipitation",
    "wind_speed"
  ],
  "target": "water_level",
  "lookback_months": 24,
  "horizon_months": 1,
  "tuning": {
    "method": "Bayesian Optimisation (Keras Tuner)",
    "n_trials": 20,
    "best_config": {
      "nb_filters": 32,
      "kernel_size": 3,
      "dilations": [
        1,
        2,
        4,
        8
      ],
      "dropout_rate": 0.1,
      "learning_rate": 0.001,
      "receptive_field": 61
    }
  },
  "data_splits": {
    "train": {
      "start": "1944-01-01",
      "end": "2007-10-01",
      "n_months": 766
    },
    "validation": {
      "start": "2007-11-01",
      "end": "2015-10-01",
      "n_months": 96
    },
    "test": {
      "start": "2015-11-01",
      "end": "2023-10-01",
      "n_months": 96
    }
  },
  "test_metrics": {
    "RMSE": 3.5771,
    "MAE": 2.8901,
    "MAPE_pct": 4.3138,
    "R2": 0.334,
    "NSE": 0.334
  },
  "notes": "Scaler fitted on train only. Oracle exog assumption \u2014 contemporaneous met vars used at forecast time."
}