# %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 1: PYTORCH GPU SETUP (KAGGLE 30GB GPU) # ============================================================================ !pip install -q ta import torch import torch.nn as nn import torch.nn.functional as F import torch.optim as optim import numpy as np import pandas as pd import warnings warnings.filterwarnings('ignore') print("="*70) print(" PYTORCH GPU SETUP (30GB GPU)") print("="*70) # ============================================================================ # GPU CONFIGURATION FOR MAXIMUM PERFORMANCE # ============================================================================ device = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu") if torch.cuda.is_available(): # Get GPU info gpu_name = torch.cuda.get_device_name(0) gpu_mem = torch.cuda.get_device_properties(0).total_memory / 1e9 print(f"✅ GPU: {gpu_name}") print(f"✅ GPU Memory: {gpu_mem:.1f} GB") # Enable TF32 for faster matmul (Ampere GPUs: A100, RTX 30xx, 40xx) torch.backends.cuda.matmul.allow_tf32 = True torch.backends.cudnn.allow_tf32 = True print("✅ TF32: Enabled (2-3x speedup on Ampere)") # Enable cuDNN autotuner torch.backends.cudnn.benchmark = True print("✅ cuDNN benchmark: Enabled") # Set default tensor type to CUDA torch.set_default_device('cuda') print("✅ Default device: CUDA") else: print("⚠️ No GPU detected, using CPU") print(f"\n✅ PyTorch: {torch.__version__}") print(f"✅ Device: {device}") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 2: LOAD DATA + FEATURES + ENVIRONMENT (MULTI-TIMEFRAME) # ============================================================================ import numpy as np import pandas as pd import gym from gym import spaces from ta.momentum import RSIIndicator, StochasticOscillator, ROCIndicator, WilliamsRIndicator from ta.trend import MACD, EMAIndicator, SMAIndicator, ADXIndicator, CCIIndicator from ta.volatility import BollingerBands, AverageTrueRange from ta.volume import OnBalanceVolumeIndicator import os print("="*70) print(" LOADING MULTI-TIMEFRAME DATA + FEATURES") print("="*70) # ============================================================================ # HELPER: CALCULATE INDICATORS FOR ANY TIMEFRAME # ============================================================================ def calculate_indicators(df, suffix=''): """Calculate all technical indicators for a given dataframe""" data = df.copy() s = f'_{suffix}' if suffix else '' # Momentum data[f'rsi_14{s}'] = RSIIndicator(close=data['close'], window=14).rsi() / 100 data[f'rsi_7{s}'] = RSIIndicator(close=data['close'], window=7).rsi() / 100 stoch = StochasticOscillator(high=data['high'], low=data['low'], close=data['close'], window=14) data[f'stoch_k{s}'] = stoch.stoch() / 100 data[f'stoch_d{s}'] = stoch.stoch_signal() / 100 roc = ROCIndicator(close=data['close'], window=12) data[f'roc_12{s}'] = np.tanh(roc.roc() / 100) williams = WilliamsRIndicator(high=data['high'], low=data['low'], close=data['close'], lbp=14) data[f'williams_r{s}'] = (williams.williams_r() + 100) / 100 macd = MACD(close=data['close']) data[f'macd{s}'] = np.tanh(macd.macd() / data['close'] * 100) data[f'macd_signal{s}'] = np.tanh(macd.macd_signal() / data['close'] * 100) data[f'macd_diff{s}'] = np.tanh(macd.macd_diff() / data['close'] * 100) # Trend data[f'sma_20{s}'] = SMAIndicator(close=data['close'], window=20).sma_indicator() data[f'sma_50{s}'] = SMAIndicator(close=data['close'], window=50).sma_indicator() data[f'ema_12{s}'] = EMAIndicator(close=data['close'], window=12).ema_indicator() data[f'ema_26{s}'] = EMAIndicator(close=data['close'], window=26).ema_indicator() data[f'price_vs_sma20{s}'] = (data['close'] - data[f'sma_20{s}']) / data[f'sma_20{s}'] data[f'price_vs_sma50{s}'] = (data['close'] - data[f'sma_50{s}']) / data[f'sma_50{s}'] adx = ADXIndicator(high=data['high'], low=data['low'], close=data['close'], window=14) data[f'adx{s}'] = adx.adx() / 100 data[f'adx_pos{s}'] = adx.adx_pos() / 100 data[f'adx_neg{s}'] = adx.adx_neg() / 100 cci = CCIIndicator(high=data['high'], low=data['low'], close=data['close'], window=20) data[f'cci{s}'] = np.tanh(cci.cci() / 100) # Volatility bb = BollingerBands(close=data['close'], window=20, window_dev=2) data[f'bb_width{s}'] = (bb.bollinger_hband() - bb.bollinger_lband()) / bb.bollinger_mavg() data[f'bb_position{s}'] = (data['close'] - bb.bollinger_lband()) / (bb.bollinger_hband() - bb.bollinger_lband()) atr = AverageTrueRange(high=data['high'], low=data['low'], close=data['close'], window=14) data[f'atr_percent{s}'] = atr.average_true_range() / data['close'] # Volume data[f'volume_ma_20{s}'] = data['volume'].rolling(20).mean() data[f'volume_ratio{s}'] = data['volume'] / (data[f'volume_ma_20{s}'] + 1e-8) obv = OnBalanceVolumeIndicator(close=data['close'], volume=data['volume']) data[f'obv_slope{s}'] = (obv.on_balance_volume().diff(5) / (obv.on_balance_volume().shift(5).abs() + 1e-8)) # Price action data[f'returns_1{s}'] = data['close'].pct_change() data[f'returns_5{s}'] = data['close'].pct_change(5) data[f'returns_20{s}'] = data['close'].pct_change(20) data[f'volatility_20{s}'] = data[f'returns_1{s}'].rolling(20).std() data[f'body_size{s}'] = abs(data['close'] - data['open']) / (data['open'] + 1e-8) data[f'high_20{s}'] = data['high'].rolling(20).max() data[f'low_20{s}'] = data['low'].rolling(20).min() data[f'price_position{s}'] = (data['close'] - data[f'low_20{s}']) / (data[f'high_20{s}'] - data[f'low_20{s}'] + 1e-8) # Drop intermediate columns cols_to_drop = [c for c in [f'sma_20{s}', f'sma_50{s}', f'ema_12{s}', f'ema_26{s}', f'volume_ma_20{s}', f'high_20{s}', f'low_20{s}'] if c in data.columns] data = data.drop(columns=cols_to_drop) return data def load_and_clean_btc(filepath): """Load and clean BTC data from CSV""" df = pd.read_csv(filepath) column_mapping = {'Open time': 'timestamp', 'Open': 'open', 'High': 'high', 'Low': 'low', 'Close': 'close', 'Volume': 'volume'} df = df.rename(columns=column_mapping) df['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(df['timestamp']) df.set_index('timestamp', inplace=True) df = df[['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume']] for col in df.columns: df[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors='coerce') df = df[df.index >= '2021-01-01'] df = df[~df.index.duplicated(keep='first')] df = df.replace(0, np.nan).dropna().sort_index() return df # ============================================================================ # 1. LOAD ALL TIMEFRAMES # ============================================================================ data_path = '/kaggle/input/bitcoin-historical-datasets-2018-2024/' print("📊 Loading 15-minute data...") btc_15m = load_and_clean_btc(data_path + 'btc_15m_data_2018_to_2025.csv') print(f" ✅ 15m: {len(btc_15m):,} candles") print("📊 Loading 1-hour data...") btc_1h = load_and_clean_btc(data_path + 'btc_1h_data_2018_to_2025.csv') print(f" ✅ 1h: {len(btc_1h):,} candles") print("📊 Loading 4-hour data...") btc_4h = load_and_clean_btc(data_path + 'btc_4h_data_2018_to_2025.csv') print(f" ✅ 4h: {len(btc_4h):,} candles") # ============================================================================ # 2. LOAD FEAR & GREED INDEX # ============================================================================ fgi_loaded = False try: fgi_path = '/kaggle/input/btc-usdt-4h-ohlc-fgi-daily-2020/' files = os.listdir(fgi_path) for filename in files: if filename.endswith('.csv'): fgi_data = pd.read_csv(fgi_path + filename) time_col = [c for c in fgi_data.columns if 'time' in c.lower() or 'date' in c.lower()] if time_col: fgi_data['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(fgi_data[time_col[0]]) else: fgi_data['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(fgi_data.iloc[:, 0]) fgi_data.set_index('timestamp', inplace=True) fgi_col = [c for c in fgi_data.columns if 'fgi' in c.lower() or 'fear' in c.lower() or 'greed' in c.lower()] if fgi_col: fgi_data = fgi_data[[fgi_col[0]]].rename(columns={fgi_col[0]: 'fgi'}) fgi_loaded = True print(f"✅ Fear & Greed loaded: {len(fgi_data):,} values") break except: pass if not fgi_loaded: fgi_data = pd.DataFrame(index=btc_15m.index) fgi_data['fgi'] = 50 print("⚠️ Using neutral FGI values") # ============================================================================ # 3. CALCULATE INDICATORS FOR EACH TIMEFRAME # ============================================================================ print("\n🔧 Calculating indicators for 15m...") data_15m = calculate_indicators(btc_15m, suffix='15m') print("🔧 Calculating indicators for 1h...") data_1h = calculate_indicators(btc_1h, suffix='1h') print("🔧 Calculating indicators for 4h...") data_4h = calculate_indicators(btc_4h, suffix='4h') # ============================================================================ # 4. MERGE HIGHER TIMEFRAMES INTO 15M (FORWARD FILL) # ============================================================================ print("\n🔗 Merging timeframes...") cols_1h = [c for c in data_1h.columns if c not in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume']] cols_4h = [c for c in data_4h.columns if c not in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume']] data = data_15m.copy() data = data.join(data_1h[cols_1h], how='left') data = data.join(data_4h[cols_4h], how='left') for col in cols_1h + cols_4h: data[col] = data[col].fillna(method='ffill') # Merge FGI data = data.join(fgi_data, how='left') data['fgi'] = data['fgi'].fillna(method='ffill').fillna(method='bfill').fillna(50) # Fear & Greed derived features data['fgi_normalized'] = (data['fgi'] - 50) / 50 data['fgi_change'] = data['fgi'].diff() / 50 data['fgi_ma7'] = data['fgi'].rolling(7).mean() data['fgi_vs_ma'] = (data['fgi'] - data['fgi_ma7']) / 50 # Time features data['hour'] = data.index.hour / 24 data['day_of_week'] = data.index.dayofweek / 7 data['us_session'] = ((data.index.hour >= 14) & (data.index.hour < 21)).astype(float) btc_features = data.dropna() feature_cols = [col for col in btc_features.columns if col not in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume', 'fgi', 'fgi_ma7']] print(f"\n✅ Multi-timeframe features complete!") print(f" 15m features: {len([c for c in feature_cols if '15m' in c])}") print(f" 1h features: {len([c for c in feature_cols if '1h' in c])}") print(f" 4h features: {len([c for c in feature_cols if '4h' in c])}") print(f" Other features: {len([c for c in feature_cols if '15m' not in c and '1h' not in c and '4h' not in c])}") print(f" TOTAL features: {len(feature_cols)}") print(f" Clean data: {len(btc_features):,} candles") # ============================================================================ # 5. TRAIN/VALID/TEST SPLITS # ============================================================================ print("\n📊 Creating Data Splits...") train_size = int(len(btc_features) * 0.70) valid_size = int(len(btc_features) * 0.15) train_data = btc_features.iloc[:train_size].copy() valid_data = btc_features.iloc[train_size:train_size+valid_size].copy() test_data = btc_features.iloc[train_size+valid_size:].copy() print(f" Train: {len(train_data):,} | Valid: {len(valid_data):,} | Test: {len(test_data):,}") # Store full data for walk-forward full_data = btc_features.copy() # ============================================================================ # 6. ROLLING NORMALIZATION CLASS # ============================================================================ class RollingNormalizer: """ Rolling z-score normalization to prevent look-ahead bias. Uses a rolling window to calculate mean and std. """ def __init__(self, window_size=2880): # 2880 = 30 days of 15m candles self.window_size = window_size self.feature_cols = None def fit_transform(self, df, feature_cols): """Apply rolling normalization to dataframe""" self.feature_cols = feature_cols result = df.copy() for col in feature_cols: rolling_mean = df[col].rolling(window=self.window_size, min_periods=100).mean() rolling_std = df[col].rolling(window=self.window_size, min_periods=100).std() result[col] = (df[col] - rolling_mean) / (rolling_std + 1e-8) # Clip extreme values result[feature_cols] = result[feature_cols].clip(-5, 5) # Fill NaN at start with 0 (neutral) result[feature_cols] = result[feature_cols].fillna(0) return result print("✅ RollingNormalizer class defined") # ============================================================================ # 7. TRADING ENVIRONMENT WITH DSR + RANDOM FLIP AUGMENTATION # ============================================================================ class BitcoinTradingEnv(gym.Env): """ Trading environment with: - Differential Sharpe Ratio (DSR) reward with warmup - Previous action in state (to learn cost of switching) - Transaction fee ramping (0 -> 0.1% after warmup) - Random flip data augmentation (50% chance to invert market) """ def __init__(self, df, initial_balance=10000, episode_length=500, base_transaction_fee=0.001, # 0.1% max fee dsr_eta=0.01): # DSR adaptation rate super().__init__() self.df = df.reset_index(drop=True) self.initial_balance = initial_balance self.episode_length = episode_length self.base_transaction_fee = base_transaction_fee self.dsr_eta = dsr_eta # Fee ramping (controlled externally via set_fee_multiplier) self.fee_multiplier = 0.0 # Training mode for data augmentation (random flips) self.training_mode = True self.flip_sign = 1.0 # Will be -1 or +1 for augmentation # DSR warmup period (return 0 reward until EMAs settle) self.dsr_warmup_steps = 100 self.feature_cols = [col for col in df.columns if col not in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume', 'fgi', 'fgi_ma7']] self.action_space = spaces.Box(low=-1, high=1, shape=(1,), dtype=np.float32) # +6 for: position, total_return, drawdown, returns_1, rsi_14, PREVIOUS_ACTION self.observation_space = spaces.Box( low=-10, high=10, shape=(len(self.feature_cols) + 6,), dtype=np.float32 ) self.reset() def set_fee_multiplier(self, multiplier): """Set fee multiplier (0.0 to 1.0) for fee ramping""" self.fee_multiplier = np.clip(multiplier, 0.0, 1.0) def set_training_mode(self, training=True): """Set training mode (enables random flips for augmentation)""" self.training_mode = training @property def current_fee(self): """Current transaction fee based on multiplier""" return self.base_transaction_fee * self.fee_multiplier def reset(self): max_start = len(self.df) - self.episode_length - 1 self.start_idx = np.random.randint(100, max(101, max_start)) self.current_step = 0 self.balance = self.initial_balance self.position = 0.0 self.entry_price = 0.0 self.total_value = self.initial_balance self.prev_total_value = self.initial_balance self.max_value = self.initial_balance # Previous action for state self.prev_action = 0.0 # DSR variables (Differential Sharpe Ratio) self.A_t = 0.0 # EMA of returns self.B_t = 0.0 # EMA of squared returns # Position tracking self.long_steps = 0 self.short_steps = 0 self.neutral_steps = 0 self.num_trades = 0 # Random flip for data augmentation (50% chance during training) # This inverts price movements: what was bullish becomes bearish if self.training_mode: self.flip_sign = -1.0 if np.random.random() < 0.5 else 1.0 else: self.flip_sign = 1.0 # No flip during eval return self._get_obs() def _get_obs(self): idx = self.start_idx + self.current_step features = self.df.loc[idx, self.feature_cols].values.copy() # Apply random flip augmentation to return-based features # This inverts bullish/bearish signals when flip_sign = -1 if self.flip_sign < 0: for i, col in enumerate(self.feature_cols): if any(x in col.lower() for x in ['returns', 'roc', 'macd', 'cci', 'obv', 'sentiment']): features[i] *= self.flip_sign total_return = (self.total_value / self.initial_balance) - 1 drawdown = (self.max_value - self.total_value) / self.max_value if self.max_value > 0 else 0 # Apply flip to market returns shown in portfolio info market_return = self.df.loc[idx, 'returns_1_15m'] * self.flip_sign portfolio_info = np.array([ self.position, total_return, drawdown, market_return, self.df.loc[idx, 'rsi_14_15m'], self.prev_action ], dtype=np.float32) obs = np.concatenate([features, portfolio_info]) return np.clip(obs, -10, 10).astype(np.float32) def _calculate_dsr(self, return_t): """ Calculate Differential Sharpe Ratio reward. DSR = (B_{t-1} * ΔA_t - 0.5 * A_{t-1} * ΔB_t) / (B_{t-1} - A_{t-1}^2)^1.5 """ eta = self.dsr_eta A_prev = self.A_t B_prev = self.B_t delta_A = eta * (return_t - A_prev) delta_B = eta * (return_t**2 - B_prev) self.A_t = A_prev + delta_A self.B_t = B_prev + delta_B variance = B_prev - A_prev**2 if variance <= 1e-8: return return_t dsr = (B_prev * delta_A - 0.5 * A_prev * delta_B) / (variance ** 1.5 + 1e-8) return np.clip(dsr, -0.5, 0.5) def step(self, action): idx = self.start_idx + self.current_step current_price = self.df.loc[idx, 'close'] target_position = np.clip(action[0], -1.0, 1.0) self.prev_total_value = self.total_value # Position change logic with transaction costs if abs(target_position - self.position) > 0.1: if self.position != 0: self._close_position(current_price) if abs(target_position) > 0.1: self._open_position(target_position, current_price) self.num_trades += 1 self._update_total_value(current_price) self.max_value = max(self.max_value, self.total_value) # Track position type if self.position > 0.1: self.long_steps += 1 elif self.position < -0.1: self.short_steps += 1 else: self.neutral_steps += 1 self.current_step += 1 done = (self.current_step >= self.episode_length) or (self.total_value <= self.initial_balance * 0.5) # ============ DSR REWARD WITH WARMUP ============ raw_return = (self.total_value - self.prev_total_value) / self.initial_balance # Apply flip_sign to reward (if we flipped the market, flip what "good" means) raw_return *= self.flip_sign # DSR Warmup: Return tiny penalty for first N steps to let EMAs settle if self.current_step < self.dsr_warmup_steps: reward = -0.0001 # Tiny constant penalty during warmup else: reward = self._calculate_dsr(raw_return) self.prev_action = target_position obs = self._get_obs() info = { 'total_value': self.total_value, 'position': self.position, 'long_steps': self.long_steps, 'short_steps': self.short_steps, 'neutral_steps': self.neutral_steps, 'num_trades': self.num_trades, 'current_fee': self.current_fee, 'flip_sign': self.flip_sign, 'raw_return': raw_return, 'dsr_reward': reward } return obs, reward, done, info def _update_total_value(self, current_price): if self.position != 0: if self.position > 0: pnl = self.position * self.initial_balance * (current_price / self.entry_price - 1) else: pnl = abs(self.position) * self.initial_balance * (1 - current_price / self.entry_price) self.total_value = self.balance + pnl else: self.total_value = self.balance def _open_position(self, size, price): self.position = size self.entry_price = price fee_cost = abs(size) * self.initial_balance * self.current_fee self.balance -= fee_cost def _close_position(self, price): if self.position > 0: pnl = self.position * self.initial_balance * (price / self.entry_price - 1) else: pnl = abs(self.position) * self.initial_balance * (1 - price / self.entry_price) fee_cost = abs(pnl) * self.current_fee self.balance += pnl - fee_cost self.position = 0.0 print("✅ Environment class ready:") print(" - DSR reward with 100-step warmup") print(" - Random flip augmentation (50% probability)") print(" - Previous action in state") print(" - Transaction fee ramping") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 3: LOAD SENTIMENT DATA # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" LOADING SENTIMENT DATA") print("="*70) sentiment_file = '/kaggle/input/bitcoin-news-with-sentimen/bitcoin_news_3hour_intervals_with_sentiment.csv' try: sentiment_raw = pd.read_csv(sentiment_file) def parse_time_range(time_str): parts = str(time_str).split(' ') if len(parts) >= 2: date = parts[0] time_range = parts[1] start_time = time_range.split('-')[0] return f"{date} {start_time}:00" return time_str sentiment_raw['timestamp'] = sentiment_raw['time_interval'].apply(parse_time_range) sentiment_raw['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(sentiment_raw['timestamp']) sentiment_raw = sentiment_raw.set_index('timestamp').sort_index() sentiment_clean = pd.DataFrame(index=sentiment_raw.index) sentiment_clean['prob_bullish'] = pd.to_numeric(sentiment_raw['prob_bullish'], errors='coerce') sentiment_clean['prob_bearish'] = pd.to_numeric(sentiment_raw['prob_bearish'], errors='coerce') sentiment_clean['prob_neutral'] = pd.to_numeric(sentiment_raw['prob_neutral'], errors='coerce') sentiment_clean['confidence'] = pd.to_numeric(sentiment_raw['sentiment_confidence'], errors='coerce') sentiment_clean = sentiment_clean.dropna() # Merge with data for df in [train_data, valid_data, test_data]: df_temp = df.join(sentiment_clean, how='left') for col in ['prob_bullish', 'prob_bearish', 'prob_neutral', 'confidence']: df[col] = df_temp[col].fillna(method='ffill').fillna(method='bfill').fillna(0.33 if col != 'confidence' else 0.5) df['sentiment_net'] = df['prob_bullish'] - df['prob_bearish'] df['sentiment_strength'] = (df['prob_bullish'] - df['prob_bearish']).abs() df['sentiment_weighted'] = df['sentiment_net'] * df['confidence'] print(f"✅ Sentiment loaded: {len(sentiment_clean):,} records") print(f"✅ Features added: 7 sentiment features") except Exception as e: print(f"⚠️ Sentiment not loaded: {e}") for df in [train_data, valid_data, test_data]: df['sentiment_net'] = 0 df['sentiment_strength'] = 0 df['sentiment_weighted'] = 0 print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 4: ROLLING NORMALIZATION + CREATE ENVIRONMENTS # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" ROLLING NORMALIZATION + CREATING ENVIRONMENTS") print("="*70) # Get feature columns (all except OHLCV and intermediate columns) feature_cols = [col for col in train_data.columns if col not in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume', 'fgi', 'fgi_ma7']] print(f"📊 Total features: {len(feature_cols)}") # ============================================================================ # ROLLING NORMALIZATION (Prevents look-ahead bias!) # Uses only past data for normalization at each point # ============================================================================ rolling_normalizer = RollingNormalizer(window_size=2880) # 30 days of 15m data print("🔄 Applying rolling normalization (window=2880)...") # Apply rolling normalization to each split train_data_norm = rolling_normalizer.fit_transform(train_data, feature_cols) valid_data_norm = rolling_normalizer.fit_transform(valid_data, feature_cols) test_data_norm = rolling_normalizer.fit_transform(test_data, feature_cols) print("✅ Rolling normalization complete (no look-ahead bias!)") # Create environments train_env = BitcoinTradingEnv(train_data_norm, episode_length=500) valid_env = BitcoinTradingEnv(valid_data_norm, episode_length=500) test_env = BitcoinTradingEnv(test_data_norm, episode_length=500) state_dim = train_env.observation_space.shape[0] action_dim = 1 print(f"\n✅ Environments created:") print(f" State dim: {state_dim} (features={len(feature_cols)} + portfolio=6)") print(f" Action dim: {action_dim}") print(f" Train samples: {len(train_data):,}") print(f" Fee starts at: 0% (ramps to 0.1% after warmup)") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 5: PYTORCH SAC AGENT (GPU OPTIMIZED) # ============================================================================ import torch import torch.nn as nn import torch.nn.functional as F import torch.optim as optim from torch.distributions import Normal print("="*70) print(" PYTORCH SAC AGENT") print("="*70) # ============================================================================ # ACTOR NETWORK (Policy) # ============================================================================ class Actor(nn.Module): def __init__(self, state_dim, action_dim, hidden_dim=512): super().__init__() # Larger network for 90+ features: 512 -> 512 -> 256 -> output self.fc1 = nn.Linear(state_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc2 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc3 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim // 2) # Taper down self.mean = nn.Linear(hidden_dim // 2, action_dim) self.log_std = nn.Linear(hidden_dim // 2, action_dim) self.LOG_STD_MIN = -20 self.LOG_STD_MAX = 2 def forward(self, state): x = F.relu(self.fc1(state)) x = F.relu(self.fc2(x)) x = F.relu(self.fc3(x)) mean = self.mean(x) log_std = self.log_std(x) log_std = torch.clamp(log_std, self.LOG_STD_MIN, self.LOG_STD_MAX) return mean, log_std def sample(self, state): mean, log_std = self.forward(state) std = log_std.exp() normal = Normal(mean, std) x_t = normal.rsample() # Reparameterization trick action = torch.tanh(x_t) # Log prob with tanh correction log_prob = normal.log_prob(x_t) log_prob -= torch.log(1 - action.pow(2) + 1e-6) log_prob = log_prob.sum(dim=-1, keepdim=True) return action, log_prob, mean # ============================================================================ # CRITIC NETWORK (Twin Q-functions) # ============================================================================ class Critic(nn.Module): def __init__(self, state_dim, action_dim, hidden_dim=512): super().__init__() # Q1 network: 512 -> 512 -> 256 -> 1 self.fc1_1 = nn.Linear(state_dim + action_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc1_2 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc1_3 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim // 2) self.fc1_out = nn.Linear(hidden_dim // 2, 1) # Q2 network: 512 -> 512 -> 256 -> 1 self.fc2_1 = nn.Linear(state_dim + action_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc2_2 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc2_3 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim // 2) self.fc2_out = nn.Linear(hidden_dim // 2, 1) def forward(self, state, action): x = torch.cat([state, action], dim=-1) # Q1 q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_1(x)) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_2(q1)) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_3(q1)) q1 = self.fc1_out(q1) # Q2 q2 = F.relu(self.fc2_1(x)) q2 = F.relu(self.fc2_2(q2)) q2 = F.relu(self.fc2_3(q2)) q2 = self.fc2_out(q2) return q1, q2 def q1(self, state, action): x = torch.cat([state, action], dim=-1) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_1(x)) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_2(q1)) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_3(q1)) return self.fc1_out(q1) # ============================================================================ # SAC AGENT # ============================================================================ class SACAgent: def __init__(self, state_dim, action_dim, device, actor_lr=3e-4, critic_lr=3e-4, alpha_lr=3e-4, gamma=0.99, tau=0.005, initial_alpha=0.2): self.device = device self.gamma = gamma self.tau = tau self.action_dim = action_dim # Networks self.actor = Actor(state_dim, action_dim).to(device) self.critic = Critic(state_dim, action_dim).to(device) self.critic_target = Critic(state_dim, action_dim).to(device) self.critic_target.load_state_dict(self.critic.state_dict()) # Optimizers self.actor_optimizer = optim.Adam(self.actor.parameters(), lr=actor_lr) self.critic_optimizer = optim.Adam(self.critic.parameters(), lr=critic_lr) # Entropy (auto-tuning alpha) self.target_entropy = -action_dim self.log_alpha = torch.tensor(np.log(initial_alpha), requires_grad=True, device=device) self.alpha_optimizer = optim.Adam([self.log_alpha], lr=alpha_lr) @property def alpha(self): return self.log_alpha.exp() def select_action(self, state, deterministic=False): with torch.no_grad(): state = torch.FloatTensor(state).unsqueeze(0).to(self.device) if deterministic: mean, _ = self.actor(state) action = torch.tanh(mean) else: action, _, _ = self.actor.sample(state) return action.cpu().numpy()[0] def update(self, batch): states, actions, rewards, next_states, dones = batch states = torch.FloatTensor(states).to(self.device) actions = torch.FloatTensor(actions).to(self.device) rewards = torch.FloatTensor(rewards).unsqueeze(1).to(self.device) next_states = torch.FloatTensor(next_states).to(self.device) dones = torch.FloatTensor(dones).unsqueeze(1).to(self.device) # ============ Update Critic ============ with torch.no_grad(): next_actions, next_log_probs, _ = self.actor.sample(next_states) q1_target, q2_target = self.critic_target(next_states, next_actions) q_target = torch.min(q1_target, q2_target) target_q = rewards + (1 - dones) * self.gamma * (q_target - self.alpha * next_log_probs) q1, q2 = self.critic(states, actions) critic_loss = F.mse_loss(q1, target_q) + F.mse_loss(q2, target_q) self.critic_optimizer.zero_grad() critic_loss.backward() self.critic_optimizer.step() # ============ Update Actor ============ new_actions, log_probs, _ = self.actor.sample(states) q1_new, q2_new = self.critic(states, new_actions) q_new = torch.min(q1_new, q2_new) actor_loss = (self.alpha * log_probs - q_new).mean() self.actor_optimizer.zero_grad() actor_loss.backward() self.actor_optimizer.step() # ============ Update Alpha ============ alpha_loss = -(self.log_alpha * (log_probs.detach() + self.target_entropy)).mean() self.alpha_optimizer.zero_grad() alpha_loss.backward() self.alpha_optimizer.step() # ============ Update Target Network ============ for param, target_param in zip(self.critic.parameters(), self.critic_target.parameters()): target_param.data.copy_(self.tau * param.data + (1 - self.tau) * target_param.data) return { 'critic_loss': critic_loss.item(), 'actor_loss': actor_loss.item(), 'alpha': self.alpha.item() } print("✅ Actor: 512→512→256→1") print("✅ Critic: Twin Q (512→512→256→1)") print("✅ SAC Agent with auto-tuning alpha") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 6: REPLAY BUFFER (GPU-FRIENDLY) # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" REPLAY BUFFER") print("="*70) class ReplayBuffer: def __init__(self, state_dim, action_dim, max_size=1_000_000): self.max_size = max_size self.ptr = 0 self.size = 0 self.states = np.zeros((max_size, state_dim), dtype=np.float32) self.actions = np.zeros((max_size, action_dim), dtype=np.float32) self.rewards = np.zeros((max_size, 1), dtype=np.float32) self.next_states = np.zeros((max_size, state_dim), dtype=np.float32) self.dones = np.zeros((max_size, 1), dtype=np.float32) mem_gb = (self.states.nbytes + self.actions.nbytes + self.rewards.nbytes + self.next_states.nbytes + self.dones.nbytes) / 1e9 print(f"📦 Buffer capacity: {max_size:,} | Memory: {mem_gb:.2f} GB") def add(self, state, action, reward, next_state, done): self.states[self.ptr] = state self.actions[self.ptr] = action self.rewards[self.ptr] = reward self.next_states[self.ptr] = next_state self.dones[self.ptr] = done self.ptr = (self.ptr + 1) % self.max_size self.size = min(self.size + 1, self.max_size) def sample(self, batch_size): idx = np.random.randint(0, self.size, size=batch_size) return ( self.states[idx], self.actions[idx], self.rewards[idx], self.next_states[idx], self.dones[idx] ) print("✅ ReplayBuffer defined") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 7: CREATE AGENT + BUFFER # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" CREATING AGENT + BUFFER") print("="*70) # Create SAC agent agent = SACAgent( state_dim=state_dim, action_dim=action_dim, device=device, actor_lr=3e-4, critic_lr=3e-4, alpha_lr=3e-4, gamma=0.99, tau=0.005, initial_alpha=0.2 ) # Create replay buffer buffer = ReplayBuffer( state_dim=state_dim, action_dim=action_dim, max_size=1_000_000 ) # Count parameters total_params = sum(p.numel() for p in agent.actor.parameters()) + \ sum(p.numel() for p in agent.critic.parameters()) print(f"\n✅ Agent created on {device}") print(f" Actor params: {sum(p.numel() for p in agent.actor.parameters()):,}") print(f" Critic params: {sum(p.numel() for p in agent.critic.parameters()):,}") print(f" Total params: {total_params:,}") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 8: TRAINING FUNCTION (GPU OPTIMIZED + FEE RAMPING) # ============================================================================ from tqdm.notebook import tqdm import time print("="*70) print(" TRAINING FUNCTION") print("="*70) def train_sac(agent, env, valid_env, buffer, total_timesteps=700_000, warmup_steps=10_000, batch_size=1024, update_freq=1, fee_warmup_steps=100_000, # When to start fee ramping fee_ramp_steps=100_000, # Steps to ramp from 0 to max fee save_path="sac_v9"): print(f"\n🚀 Training Configuration:") print(f" Total steps: {total_timesteps:,}") print(f" Warmup: {warmup_steps:,}") print(f" Batch size: {batch_size}") print(f" Fee warmup: {fee_warmup_steps:,} steps (then ramp over {fee_ramp_steps:,})") print(f" Data augmentation: Random flips (50% probability)") print(f" DSR warmup: 100 steps per episode (0 reward)") print(f" Device: {agent.device}") # Set training modes for augmentation env.set_training_mode(True) # Enable random flips valid_env.set_training_mode(False) # No augmentation for validation # Stats tracking episode_rewards = [] episode_lengths = [] eval_rewards = [] best_reward = -np.inf best_eval = -np.inf # Training stats critic_losses = [] actor_losses = [] state = env.reset() episode_reward = 0 episode_length = 0 episode_count = 0 start_time = time.time() pbar = tqdm(range(total_timesteps), desc="Training") for step in pbar: # ============ FEE RAMPING CURRICULUM ============ # 0 fees until fee_warmup_steps, then ramp to 1.0 over fee_ramp_steps if step < fee_warmup_steps: fee_multiplier = 0.0 else: progress = (step - fee_warmup_steps) / fee_ramp_steps fee_multiplier = min(1.0, progress) env.set_fee_multiplier(fee_multiplier) valid_env.set_fee_multiplier(fee_multiplier) # Select action if step < warmup_steps: action = env.action_space.sample() else: action = agent.select_action(state, deterministic=False) # Step environment next_state, reward, done, info = env.step(action) # Store transition buffer.add(state, action, reward, next_state, float(done)) state = next_state episode_reward += reward episode_length += 1 # Update agent stats = None if step >= warmup_steps and step % update_freq == 0: batch = buffer.sample(batch_size) stats = agent.update(batch) critic_losses.append(stats['critic_loss']) actor_losses.append(stats['actor_loss']) # Episode end if done: episode_rewards.append(episode_reward) episode_lengths.append(episode_length) episode_count += 1 # Calculate episode stats final_value = info.get('total_value', 10000) pnl_pct = (final_value / 10000 - 1) * 100 num_trades = info.get('num_trades', 0) current_fee = info.get('current_fee', 0) * 100 # Convert to % # Get position distribution long_steps = info.get('long_steps', 0) short_steps = info.get('short_steps', 0) neutral_steps = info.get('neutral_steps', 0) total_active = long_steps + short_steps long_pct = (long_steps / total_active * 100) if total_active > 0 else 0 short_pct = (short_steps / total_active * 100) if total_active > 0 else 0 # Update progress bar with detailed info avg_reward = np.mean(episode_rewards[-10:]) if len(episode_rewards) >= 10 else episode_reward avg_critic = np.mean(critic_losses[-100:]) if critic_losses else 0 pbar.set_postfix({ 'ep': episode_count, 'R': f'{episode_reward:.4f}', 'avg10': f'{avg_reward:.4f}', 'PnL%': f'{pnl_pct:+.2f}', 'L/S': f'{long_pct:.0f}/{short_pct:.0f}', 'fee%': f'{current_fee:.3f}', 'α': f'{agent.alpha.item():.3f}', }) # ============ EVAL EVERY EPISODE ============ eval_reward, eval_pnl, eval_long_pct = evaluate_agent(agent, valid_env, n_episodes=1) eval_rewards.append(eval_reward) # Print detailed episode summary elapsed = time.time() - start_time steps_per_sec = (step + 1) / elapsed print(f"\n{'='*60}") print(f"📊 Episode {episode_count} Complete | Step {step+1:,}/{total_timesteps:,}") print(f"{'='*60}") print(f" 🎮 TRAIN:") print(f" Reward (DSR): {episode_reward:.4f} | PnL: {pnl_pct:+.2f}%") print(f" Length: {episode_length} steps | Trades: {num_trades}") print(f" Avg (last 10): {avg_reward:.4f}") print(f" 📊 POSITION BALANCE:") print(f" Long: {long_steps} steps ({long_pct:.1f}%)") print(f" Short: {short_steps} steps ({short_pct:.1f}%)") print(f" Neutral: {neutral_steps} steps") print(f" 💰 FEE CURRICULUM:") print(f" Current fee: {current_fee:.4f}% (multiplier: {fee_multiplier:.2f})") print(f" 📈 EVAL (validation):") print(f" Reward: {eval_reward:.4f} | PnL: {eval_pnl:+.2f}%") print(f" Long%: {eval_long_pct:.1f}%") print(f" Avg (last 5): {np.mean(eval_rewards[-5:]):.4f}") print(f" 🧠 AGENT:") print(f" Alpha: {agent.alpha.item():.4f}") print(f" Critic loss: {avg_critic:.5f}") print(f" ⚡ Speed: {steps_per_sec:.0f} steps/sec") print(f" 💾 Buffer: {buffer.size:,} transitions") # Save best train if episode_reward > best_reward: best_reward = episode_reward torch.save({ 'actor': agent.actor.state_dict(), 'critic': agent.critic.state_dict(), 'critic_target': agent.critic_target.state_dict(), 'log_alpha': agent.log_alpha, }, f"{save_path}_best_train.pt") print(f" 🏆 NEW BEST TRAIN: {best_reward:.4f}") # Save best eval if eval_reward > best_eval: best_eval = eval_reward torch.save({ 'actor': agent.actor.state_dict(), 'critic': agent.critic.state_dict(), 'critic_target': agent.critic_target.state_dict(), 'log_alpha': agent.log_alpha, }, f"{save_path}_best_eval.pt") print(f" 🏆 NEW BEST EVAL: {best_eval:.4f}") # Reset state = env.reset() episode_reward = 0 episode_length = 0 # Final save torch.save({ 'actor': agent.actor.state_dict(), 'critic': agent.critic.state_dict(), 'critic_target': agent.critic_target.state_dict(), 'log_alpha': agent.log_alpha, }, f"{save_path}_final.pt") total_time = time.time() - start_time print(f"\n{'='*70}") print(f" TRAINING COMPLETE") print(f"{'='*70}") print(f" Total time: {total_time/60:.1f} min") print(f" Episodes: {episode_count}") print(f" Best train reward (DSR): {best_reward:.4f}") print(f" Best eval reward (DSR): {best_eval:.4f}") print(f" Avg speed: {total_timesteps/total_time:.0f} steps/sec") return episode_rewards, eval_rewards def evaluate_agent(agent, env, n_episodes=1): """Run evaluation episodes""" total_reward = 0 total_pnl = 0 total_long_pct = 0 for _ in range(n_episodes): state = env.reset() episode_reward = 0 done = False while not done: action = agent.select_action(state, deterministic=True) state, reward, done, info = env.step(action) episode_reward += reward total_reward += episode_reward final_value = info.get('total_value', 10000) total_pnl += (final_value / 10000 - 1) * 100 # Calculate long percentage long_steps = info.get('long_steps', 0) short_steps = info.get('short_steps', 0) total_active = long_steps + short_steps total_long_pct += (long_steps / total_active * 100) if total_active > 0 else 0 return total_reward / n_episodes, total_pnl / n_episodes, total_long_pct / n_episodes print("✅ Training function ready:") print(" - Per-episode eval + position tracking") print(" - DSR reward (risk-adjusted)") print(" - Fee ramping: 0% → 0.1% after 100k steps") print(" - Model checkpointing") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 9: START TRAINING # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" STARTING SAC TRAINING") print("="*70) # Training parameters TOTAL_STEPS = 500_000 # 500K steps WARMUP_STEPS = 10_000 # 10K random warmup BATCH_SIZE = 256 # Standard batch size UPDATE_FREQ = 1 # Update every step FEE_WARMUP = 100_000 # Start fee ramping after 100k steps FEE_RAMP = 100_000 # Ramp fees over 100k steps (0 → 0.1%) print(f"\n📋 Configuration:") print(f" Steps: {TOTAL_STEPS:,}") print(f" Batch: {BATCH_SIZE}") print(f" Train env: {len(train_data):,} candles") print(f" Valid env: {len(valid_data):,} candles") print(f" Device: {device}") print(f"\n💰 Fee Curriculum:") print(f" Steps 0-{FEE_WARMUP:,}: 0% fee (learn basic trading)") print(f" Steps {FEE_WARMUP:,}-{FEE_WARMUP+FEE_RAMP:,}: Ramp 0%→0.1%") print(f" Steps {FEE_WARMUP+FEE_RAMP:,}+: Full 0.1% fee") print(f"\n🎯 Reward: Differential Sharpe Ratio (DSR)") print(f" - Risk-adjusted returns (not just PnL)") print(f" - Small values (-0.5 to 0.5) are normal") print(f" - NOT normalized further") # Run training with validation eval every episode episode_rewards, eval_rewards = train_sac( agent=agent, env=train_env, valid_env=valid_env, buffer=buffer, total_timesteps=TOTAL_STEPS, warmup_steps=WARMUP_STEPS, batch_size=BATCH_SIZE, update_freq=UPDATE_FREQ, fee_warmup_steps=FEE_WARMUP, fee_ramp_steps=FEE_RAMP, save_path="sac_v9_pytorch" ) print("\n" + "="*70) print(" TRAINING COMPLETE") print("="*70)