# %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 1: PYTORCH GPU SETUP (KAGGLE 30GB GPU) # ============================================================================ !pip install -q ta import torch import torch.nn as nn import torch.nn.functional as F import torch.optim as optim import numpy as np import pandas as pd import warnings warnings.filterwarnings('ignore') print("="*70) print(" PYTORCH GPU SETUP (30GB GPU)") print("="*70) # ============================================================================ # GPU CONFIGURATION FOR MAXIMUM PERFORMANCE # ============================================================================ device = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu") if torch.cuda.is_available(): # Get GPU info gpu_name = torch.cuda.get_device_name(0) gpu_mem = torch.cuda.get_device_properties(0).total_memory / 1e9 print(f"✅ GPU: {gpu_name}") print(f"✅ GPU Memory: {gpu_mem:.1f} GB") # Enable TF32 for faster matmul (Ampere GPUs: A100, RTX 30xx, 40xx) torch.backends.cuda.matmul.allow_tf32 = True torch.backends.cudnn.allow_tf32 = True print("✅ TF32: Enabled (2-3x speedup on Ampere)") # Enable cuDNN autotuner torch.backends.cudnn.benchmark = True print("✅ cuDNN benchmark: Enabled") # Set default tensor type to CUDA torch.set_default_device('cuda') print("✅ Default device: CUDA") else: print("⚠️ No GPU detected, using CPU") print(f"\n✅ PyTorch: {torch.__version__}") print(f"✅ Device: {device}") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 2: LOAD DATA + FEATURES + TRAIN/VALID/TEST SPLIT # ============================================================================ import numpy as np import pandas as pd import gym from gym import spaces from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler from ta.momentum import RSIIndicator, StochasticOscillator, ROCIndicator, WilliamsRIndicator from ta.trend import MACD, EMAIndicator, SMAIndicator, ADXIndicator, CCIIndicator from ta.volatility import BollingerBands, AverageTrueRange from ta.volume import OnBalanceVolumeIndicator import os print("="*70) print(" LOADING DATA + FEATURES") print("="*70) # ============================================================================ # 1. LOAD BITCOIN DATA # ============================================================================ data_path = '/kaggle/input/bitcoin-historical-datasets-2018-2024/' btc_data = pd.read_csv(data_path + 'btc_15m_data_2018_to_2025.csv') column_mapping = {'Open time': 'timestamp', 'Open': 'open', 'High': 'high', 'Low': 'low', 'Close': 'close', 'Volume': 'volume'} btc_data = btc_data.rename(columns=column_mapping) btc_data['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(btc_data['timestamp']) btc_data.set_index('timestamp', inplace=True) btc_data = btc_data[['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume']] for col in btc_data.columns: btc_data[col] = pd.to_numeric(btc_data[col], errors='coerce') btc_data = btc_data[btc_data.index >= '2021-01-01'] btc_data = btc_data[~btc_data.index.duplicated(keep='first')] btc_data = btc_data.replace(0, np.nan).dropna().sort_index() print(f"✅ BTC Data: {len(btc_data):,} candles") # ============================================================================ # 2. LOAD FEAR & GREED INDEX # ============================================================================ fgi_loaded = False try: fgi_path = '/kaggle/input/btc-usdt-4h-ohlc-fgi-daily-2020/' files = os.listdir(fgi_path) for filename in files: if filename.endswith('.csv'): fgi_data = pd.read_csv(fgi_path + filename) # Find timestamp column time_col = [c for c in fgi_data.columns if 'time' in c.lower() or 'date' in c.lower()] if time_col: fgi_data['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(fgi_data[time_col[0]]) else: fgi_data['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(fgi_data.iloc[:, 0]) fgi_data.set_index('timestamp', inplace=True) # Find FGI column fgi_col = [c for c in fgi_data.columns if 'fgi' in c.lower() or 'fear' in c.lower() or 'greed' in c.lower()] if fgi_col: fgi_data = fgi_data[[fgi_col[0]]].rename(columns={fgi_col[0]: 'fgi'}) fgi_loaded = True print(f"✅ Fear & Greed loaded: {len(fgi_data):,} values") break except: pass if not fgi_loaded: fgi_data = pd.DataFrame(index=btc_data.index) fgi_data['fgi'] = 50 print("⚠️ Using neutral FGI values") # Merge FGI btc_data = btc_data.join(fgi_data, how='left') btc_data['fgi'] = btc_data['fgi'].fillna(method='ffill').fillna(method='bfill').fillna(50) # ============================================================================ # 3. TECHNICAL INDICATORS # ============================================================================ print("🔧 Calculating indicators...") data = btc_data.copy() # Momentum data['rsi_14'] = RSIIndicator(close=data['close'], window=14).rsi() / 100 data['rsi_7'] = RSIIndicator(close=data['close'], window=7).rsi() / 100 stoch = StochasticOscillator(high=data['high'], low=data['low'], close=data['close'], window=14) data['stoch_k'] = stoch.stoch() / 100 data['stoch_d'] = stoch.stoch_signal() / 100 roc = ROCIndicator(close=data['close'], window=12) data['roc_12'] = np.tanh(roc.roc() / 100) williams = WilliamsRIndicator(high=data['high'], low=data['low'], close=data['close'], lbp=14) data['williams_r'] = (williams.williams_r() + 100) / 100 macd = MACD(close=data['close']) data['macd'] = np.tanh(macd.macd() / data['close'] * 100) data['macd_signal'] = np.tanh(macd.macd_signal() / data['close'] * 100) data['macd_diff'] = np.tanh(macd.macd_diff() / data['close'] * 100) # Trend data['sma_20'] = SMAIndicator(close=data['close'], window=20).sma_indicator() data['sma_50'] = SMAIndicator(close=data['close'], window=50).sma_indicator() data['ema_12'] = EMAIndicator(close=data['close'], window=12).ema_indicator() data['ema_26'] = EMAIndicator(close=data['close'], window=26).ema_indicator() data['price_vs_sma20'] = (data['close'] - data['sma_20']) / data['sma_20'] data['price_vs_sma50'] = (data['close'] - data['sma_50']) / data['sma_50'] adx = ADXIndicator(high=data['high'], low=data['low'], close=data['close'], window=14) data['adx'] = adx.adx() / 100 data['adx_pos'] = adx.adx_pos() / 100 data['adx_neg'] = adx.adx_neg() / 100 cci = CCIIndicator(high=data['high'], low=data['low'], close=data['close'], window=20) data['cci'] = np.tanh(cci.cci() / 100) # Volatility bb = BollingerBands(close=data['close'], window=20, window_dev=2) data['bb_width'] = (bb.bollinger_hband() - bb.bollinger_lband()) / bb.bollinger_mavg() data['bb_position'] = (data['close'] - bb.bollinger_lband()) / (bb.bollinger_hband() - bb.bollinger_lband()) atr = AverageTrueRange(high=data['high'], low=data['low'], close=data['close'], window=14) data['atr_percent'] = atr.average_true_range() / data['close'] # Volume data['volume_ma_20'] = data['volume'].rolling(20).mean() data['volume_ratio'] = data['volume'] / (data['volume_ma_20'] + 1e-8) obv = OnBalanceVolumeIndicator(close=data['close'], volume=data['volume']) data['obv_slope'] = (obv.on_balance_volume().diff(5) / (obv.on_balance_volume().shift(5).abs() + 1e-8)) # Price action data['returns_1'] = data['close'].pct_change() data['returns_5'] = data['close'].pct_change(5) data['returns_20'] = data['close'].pct_change(20) data['volatility_20'] = data['returns_1'].rolling(20).std() data['body_size'] = abs(data['close'] - data['open']) / (data['open'] + 1e-8) data['high_20'] = data['high'].rolling(20).max() data['low_20'] = data['low'].rolling(20).min() data['price_position'] = (data['close'] - data['low_20']) / (data['high_20'] - data['low_20'] + 1e-8) # Fear & Greed data['fgi_normalized'] = (data['fgi'] - 50) / 50 data['fgi_change'] = data['fgi'].diff() / 50 data['fgi_ma7'] = data['fgi'].rolling(7).mean() data['fgi_vs_ma'] = (data['fgi'] - data['fgi_ma7']) / 50 # Time data['hour'] = data.index.hour / 24 data['day_of_week'] = data.index.dayofweek / 7 data['us_session'] = ((data.index.hour >= 14) & (data.index.hour < 21)).astype(float) btc_features = data.dropna() feature_cols = [col for col in btc_features.columns if col not in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume']] print(f"✅ Features: {len(feature_cols)}") # ============================================================================ # 4. TRAIN / VALID / TEST SPLIT (70/15/15) # ============================================================================ train_size = int(len(btc_features) * 0.70) valid_size = int(len(btc_features) * 0.15) train_data = btc_features.iloc[:train_size].copy() valid_data = btc_features.iloc[train_size:train_size+valid_size].copy() test_data = btc_features.iloc[train_size+valid_size:].copy() print(f"\n📊 Train: {len(train_data):,} | Valid: {len(valid_data):,} | Test: {len(test_data):,}") # ============================================================================ # 5. TRADING ENVIRONMENT (WITH ANTI-SHORT BIAS) # ============================================================================ class BitcoinTradingEnv(gym.Env): def __init__(self, df, initial_balance=10000, episode_length=500, transaction_fee=0.0, long_bonus=0.0001, short_penalty_threshold=0.8, short_penalty=0.05): super().__init__() self.df = df.reset_index(drop=True) self.initial_balance = initial_balance self.episode_length = episode_length self.transaction_fee = transaction_fee # Anti-short bias parameters self.long_bonus = long_bonus # Small bonus for being long self.short_penalty_threshold = short_penalty_threshold # If >80% short, penalize self.short_penalty = short_penalty # Penalty amount at episode end self.feature_cols = [col for col in df.columns if col not in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume']] self.action_space = spaces.Box(low=-1, high=1, shape=(1,), dtype=np.float32) self.observation_space = spaces.Box( low=-10, high=10, shape=(len(self.feature_cols) + 5,), dtype=np.float32 ) self.reset() def reset(self): max_start = len(self.df) - self.episode_length - 1 self.start_idx = np.random.randint(100, max(101, max_start)) self.current_step = 0 self.balance = self.initial_balance self.position = 0.0 self.entry_price = 0.0 self.total_value = self.initial_balance self.prev_total_value = self.initial_balance self.max_value = self.initial_balance # Track position history for bias detection self.long_steps = 0 self.short_steps = 0 self.neutral_steps = 0 return self._get_obs() def _get_obs(self): idx = self.start_idx + self.current_step features = self.df.loc[idx, self.feature_cols].values total_return = (self.total_value / self.initial_balance) - 1 drawdown = (self.max_value - self.total_value) / self.max_value if self.max_value > 0 else 0 portfolio_info = np.array([ self.position, total_return, drawdown, self.df.loc[idx, 'returns_1'], self.df.loc[idx, 'rsi_14'] ], dtype=np.float32) obs = np.concatenate([features, portfolio_info]) return np.clip(obs, -10, 10).astype(np.float32) def step(self, action): idx = self.start_idx + self.current_step current_price = self.df.loc[idx, 'close'] target_position = np.clip(action[0], -1.0, 1.0) self.prev_total_value = self.total_value if abs(target_position - self.position) > 0.1: if self.position != 0: self._close_position(current_price) if abs(target_position) > 0.1: self._open_position(target_position, current_price) self._update_total_value(current_price) self.max_value = max(self.max_value, self.total_value) # Track position type if self.position > 0.1: self.long_steps += 1 elif self.position < -0.1: self.short_steps += 1 else: self.neutral_steps += 1 self.current_step += 1 done = (self.current_step >= self.episode_length) or (self.total_value <= self.initial_balance * 0.5) # ============ REWARD SHAPING ============ # Base reward: portfolio value change reward = (self.total_value - self.prev_total_value) / self.initial_balance # Small bonus for being LONG (encourages buying) if self.position > 0.1: reward += self.long_bonus # End-of-episode penalty for excessive shorting if done: total_active_steps = self.long_steps + self.short_steps if total_active_steps > 0: short_ratio = self.short_steps / total_active_steps if short_ratio > self.short_penalty_threshold: # Penalize heavily for being >80% short reward -= self.short_penalty * (short_ratio - self.short_penalty_threshold) / (1 - self.short_penalty_threshold) obs = self._get_obs() info = { 'total_value': self.total_value, 'position': self.position, 'long_steps': self.long_steps, 'short_steps': self.short_steps, 'neutral_steps': self.neutral_steps } return obs, reward, done, info def _update_total_value(self, current_price): if self.position != 0: if self.position > 0: pnl = self.position * self.initial_balance * (current_price / self.entry_price - 1) else: pnl = abs(self.position) * self.initial_balance * (1 - current_price / self.entry_price) self.total_value = self.balance + pnl else: self.total_value = self.balance def _open_position(self, size, price): self.position = size self.entry_price = price def _close_position(self, price): if self.position > 0: pnl = self.position * self.initial_balance * (price / self.entry_price - 1) else: pnl = abs(self.position) * self.initial_balance * (1 - price / self.entry_price) pnl -= abs(pnl) * self.transaction_fee self.balance += pnl self.position = 0.0 print("✅ Environment class ready (with anti-short bias)") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 3: LOAD SENTIMENT DATA # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" LOADING SENTIMENT DATA") print("="*70) sentiment_file = '/kaggle/input/bitcoin-news-with-sentimen/bitcoin_news_3hour_intervals_with_sentiment.csv' try: sentiment_raw = pd.read_csv(sentiment_file) def parse_time_range(time_str): parts = str(time_str).split(' ') if len(parts) >= 2: date = parts[0] time_range = parts[1] start_time = time_range.split('-')[0] return f"{date} {start_time}:00" return time_str sentiment_raw['timestamp'] = sentiment_raw['time_interval'].apply(parse_time_range) sentiment_raw['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(sentiment_raw['timestamp']) sentiment_raw = sentiment_raw.set_index('timestamp').sort_index() sentiment_clean = pd.DataFrame(index=sentiment_raw.index) sentiment_clean['prob_bullish'] = pd.to_numeric(sentiment_raw['prob_bullish'], errors='coerce') sentiment_clean['prob_bearish'] = pd.to_numeric(sentiment_raw['prob_bearish'], errors='coerce') sentiment_clean['prob_neutral'] = pd.to_numeric(sentiment_raw['prob_neutral'], errors='coerce') sentiment_clean['confidence'] = pd.to_numeric(sentiment_raw['sentiment_confidence'], errors='coerce') sentiment_clean = sentiment_clean.dropna() # Merge with data for df in [train_data, valid_data, test_data]: df_temp = df.join(sentiment_clean, how='left') for col in ['prob_bullish', 'prob_bearish', 'prob_neutral', 'confidence']: df[col] = df_temp[col].fillna(method='ffill').fillna(method='bfill').fillna(0.33 if col != 'confidence' else 0.5) df['sentiment_net'] = df['prob_bullish'] - df['prob_bearish'] df['sentiment_strength'] = (df['prob_bullish'] - df['prob_bearish']).abs() df['sentiment_weighted'] = df['sentiment_net'] * df['confidence'] print(f"✅ Sentiment loaded: {len(sentiment_clean):,} records") print(f"✅ Features added: 7 sentiment features") except Exception as e: print(f"⚠️ Sentiment not loaded: {e}") for df in [train_data, valid_data, test_data]: df['sentiment_net'] = 0 df['sentiment_strength'] = 0 df['sentiment_weighted'] = 0 print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 4: NORMALIZE + CREATE ENVIRONMENTS # ============================================================================ from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler print("="*70) print(" NORMALIZING DATA + CREATING ENVIRONMENTS") print("="*70) # Get feature columns (all except OHLCV) feature_cols = [col for col in train_data.columns if col not in ['open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume']] print(f"📊 Total features: {len(feature_cols)}") # Fit scaler on TRAIN ONLY scaler = StandardScaler() train_data[feature_cols] = scaler.fit_transform(train_data[feature_cols]) valid_data[feature_cols] = scaler.transform(valid_data[feature_cols]) test_data[feature_cols] = scaler.transform(test_data[feature_cols]) # Clip extreme values for df in [train_data, valid_data, test_data]: df[feature_cols] = df[feature_cols].clip(-5, 5) print("✅ Normalization complete (fitted on train only)") # Create environments train_env = BitcoinTradingEnv(train_data, episode_length=500) valid_env = BitcoinTradingEnv(valid_data, episode_length=500) test_env = BitcoinTradingEnv(test_data, episode_length=500) state_dim = train_env.observation_space.shape[0] action_dim = 1 print(f"\n✅ Environments created:") print(f" State dim: {state_dim}") print(f" Action dim: {action_dim}") print(f" Train episodes: ~{len(train_data)//500}") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 5: PYTORCH SAC AGENT (GPU OPTIMIZED) # ============================================================================ import torch import torch.nn as nn import torch.nn.functional as F import torch.optim as optim from torch.distributions import Normal print("="*70) print(" PYTORCH SAC AGENT") print("="*70) # ============================================================================ # ACTOR NETWORK # ============================================================================ class Actor(nn.Module): def __init__(self, state_dim, action_dim, hidden_dim=256): super().__init__() self.fc1 = nn.Linear(state_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc2 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc3 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim) self.mean = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, action_dim) self.log_std = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, action_dim) self.LOG_STD_MIN = -20 self.LOG_STD_MAX = 2 def forward(self, state): x = F.relu(self.fc1(state)) x = F.relu(self.fc2(x)) x = F.relu(self.fc3(x)) mean = self.mean(x) log_std = self.log_std(x) log_std = torch.clamp(log_std, self.LOG_STD_MIN, self.LOG_STD_MAX) return mean, log_std def sample(self, state): mean, log_std = self.forward(state) std = log_std.exp() normal = Normal(mean, std) x_t = normal.rsample() # Reparameterization trick action = torch.tanh(x_t) # Log prob with tanh correction log_prob = normal.log_prob(x_t) log_prob -= torch.log(1 - action.pow(2) + 1e-6) log_prob = log_prob.sum(dim=-1, keepdim=True) return action, log_prob, mean # ============================================================================ # CRITIC NETWORK # ============================================================================ class Critic(nn.Module): def __init__(self, state_dim, action_dim, hidden_dim=256): super().__init__() # Q1 self.fc1_1 = nn.Linear(state_dim + action_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc1_2 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc1_3 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc1_out = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, 1) # Q2 self.fc2_1 = nn.Linear(state_dim + action_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc2_2 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc2_3 = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, hidden_dim) self.fc2_out = nn.Linear(hidden_dim, 1) def forward(self, state, action): x = torch.cat([state, action], dim=-1) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_1(x)) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_2(q1)) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_3(q1)) q1 = self.fc1_out(q1) q2 = F.relu(self.fc2_1(x)) q2 = F.relu(self.fc2_2(q2)) q2 = F.relu(self.fc2_3(q2)) q2 = self.fc2_out(q2) return q1, q2 def q1(self, state, action): x = torch.cat([state, action], dim=-1) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_1(x)) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_2(q1)) q1 = F.relu(self.fc1_3(q1)) return self.fc1_out(q1) # ============================================================================ # SAC AGENT # ============================================================================ class SACAgent: def __init__(self, state_dim, action_dim, device, actor_lr=3e-4, critic_lr=3e-4, alpha_lr=3e-4, gamma=0.99, tau=0.005, initial_alpha=0.2): self.device = device self.gamma = gamma self.tau = tau self.action_dim = action_dim # Networks self.actor = Actor(state_dim, action_dim).to(device) self.critic = Critic(state_dim, action_dim).to(device) self.critic_target = Critic(state_dim, action_dim).to(device) self.critic_target.load_state_dict(self.critic.state_dict()) # Optimizers self.actor_optimizer = optim.Adam(self.actor.parameters(), lr=actor_lr) self.critic_optimizer = optim.Adam(self.critic.parameters(), lr=critic_lr) # Entropy (auto-tuning alpha) self.target_entropy = -action_dim self.log_alpha = torch.tensor(np.log(initial_alpha), requires_grad=True, device=device) self.alpha_optimizer = optim.Adam([self.log_alpha], lr=alpha_lr) @property def alpha(self): return self.log_alpha.exp() def select_action(self, state, deterministic=False): with torch.no_grad(): state = torch.FloatTensor(state).unsqueeze(0).to(self.device) if deterministic: mean, _ = self.actor(state) action = torch.tanh(mean) else: action, _, _ = self.actor.sample(state) return action.cpu().numpy()[0] def update(self, batch): states, actions, rewards, next_states, dones = batch states = torch.FloatTensor(states).to(self.device) actions = torch.FloatTensor(actions).to(self.device) rewards = torch.FloatTensor(rewards).to(self.device) next_states = torch.FloatTensor(next_states).to(self.device) dones = torch.FloatTensor(dones).to(self.device) # ============ Update Critic ============ with torch.no_grad(): next_actions, next_log_probs, _ = self.actor.sample(next_states) q1_target, q2_target = self.critic_target(next_states, next_actions) q_target = torch.min(q1_target, q2_target) target_q = rewards + (1 - dones) * self.gamma * (q_target - self.alpha * next_log_probs) q1, q2 = self.critic(states, actions) critic_loss = F.mse_loss(q1, target_q) + F.mse_loss(q2, target_q) self.critic_optimizer.zero_grad() critic_loss.backward() torch.nn.utils.clip_grad_norm_(self.critic.parameters(), 1.0) self.critic_optimizer.step() # ============ Update Actor ============ new_actions, log_probs, _ = self.actor.sample(states) q1_new, q2_new = self.critic(states, new_actions) q_new = torch.min(q1_new, q2_new) actor_loss = (self.alpha.detach() * log_probs - q_new).mean() self.actor_optimizer.zero_grad() actor_loss.backward() torch.nn.utils.clip_grad_norm_(self.actor.parameters(), 1.0) self.actor_optimizer.step() # ============ Update Alpha ============ alpha_loss = -(self.log_alpha * (log_probs + self.target_entropy).detach()).mean() self.alpha_optimizer.zero_grad() alpha_loss.backward() self.alpha_optimizer.step() # ============ Update Target ============ for param, target_param in zip(self.critic.parameters(), self.critic_target.parameters()): target_param.data.copy_(self.tau * param.data + (1 - self.tau) * target_param.data) return { 'critic_loss': critic_loss.item(), 'actor_loss': actor_loss.item(), 'alpha': self.alpha.item(), 'q_value': q1.mean().item() } def save(self, path): torch.save({ 'actor': self.actor.state_dict(), 'critic': self.critic.state_dict(), 'critic_target': self.critic_target.state_dict(), 'log_alpha': self.log_alpha, }, path) def load(self, path): checkpoint = torch.load(path) self.actor.load_state_dict(checkpoint['actor']) self.critic.load_state_dict(checkpoint['critic']) self.critic_target.load_state_dict(checkpoint['critic_target']) self.log_alpha = checkpoint['log_alpha'] print("✅ SACAgent class defined (PyTorch)") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 6: REPLAY BUFFER (GPU-FRIENDLY) # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" REPLAY BUFFER") print("="*70) class ReplayBuffer: def __init__(self, state_dim, action_dim, max_size=1_000_000): self.max_size = max_size self.ptr = 0 self.size = 0 self.states = np.zeros((max_size, state_dim), dtype=np.float32) self.actions = np.zeros((max_size, action_dim), dtype=np.float32) self.rewards = np.zeros((max_size, 1), dtype=np.float32) self.next_states = np.zeros((max_size, state_dim), dtype=np.float32) self.dones = np.zeros((max_size, 1), dtype=np.float32) mem_gb = (self.states.nbytes + self.actions.nbytes + self.rewards.nbytes + self.next_states.nbytes + self.dones.nbytes) / 1e9 print(f"📦 Buffer capacity: {max_size:,} | Memory: {mem_gb:.2f} GB") def add(self, state, action, reward, next_state, done): self.states[self.ptr] = state self.actions[self.ptr] = action self.rewards[self.ptr] = reward self.next_states[self.ptr] = next_state self.dones[self.ptr] = done self.ptr = (self.ptr + 1) % self.max_size self.size = min(self.size + 1, self.max_size) def sample(self, batch_size): idx = np.random.randint(0, self.size, size=batch_size) return ( self.states[idx], self.actions[idx], self.rewards[idx], self.next_states[idx], self.dones[idx] ) print("✅ ReplayBuffer defined") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 8: TRAINING FUNCTION (GPU OPTIMIZED) # ============================================================================ from tqdm.notebook import tqdm import time print("="*70) print(" TRAINING FUNCTION") print("="*70) def train_sac(agent, env, valid_env, buffer, total_timesteps=700_000, warmup_steps=10_000, batch_size=1024, update_freq=1, save_path="sac_v9"): print(f"\n🚀 Training Configuration:") print(f" Total steps: {total_timesteps:,}") print(f" Warmup: {warmup_steps:,}") print(f" Batch size: {batch_size}") print(f" Device: {agent.device}") # Stats tracking episode_rewards = [] episode_lengths = [] eval_rewards = [] best_reward = -np.inf best_eval = -np.inf # Training stats critic_losses = [] actor_losses = [] q_values = [] state = env.reset() episode_reward = 0 episode_length = 0 episode_count = 0 total_trades = 0 start_time = time.time() pbar = tqdm(range(total_timesteps), desc="Training") for step in pbar: # Select action if step < warmup_steps: action = env.action_space.sample() else: action = agent.select_action(state, deterministic=False) # Step environment next_state, reward, done, info = env.step(action) # Store transition buffer.add(state, action, reward, next_state, float(done)) state = next_state episode_reward += reward episode_length += 1 # Update agent stats = None if step >= warmup_steps and step % update_freq == 0: batch = buffer.sample(batch_size) stats = agent.update(batch) critic_losses.append(stats['critic_loss']) actor_losses.append(stats['actor_loss']) q_values.append(stats['q_value']) # Episode end if done: episode_rewards.append(episode_reward) episode_lengths.append(episode_length) episode_count += 1 # Calculate episode stats final_value = info.get('total_value', 10000) pnl_pct = (final_value / 10000 - 1) * 100 # Get position distribution long_steps = info.get('long_steps', 0) short_steps = info.get('short_steps', 0) neutral_steps = info.get('neutral_steps', 0) total_active = long_steps + short_steps long_pct = (long_steps / total_active * 100) if total_active > 0 else 0 short_pct = (short_steps / total_active * 100) if total_active > 0 else 0 # Update progress bar with detailed info avg_reward = np.mean(episode_rewards[-10:]) if len(episode_rewards) >= 10 else episode_reward avg_q = np.mean(q_values[-100:]) if q_values else 0 avg_critic = np.mean(critic_losses[-100:]) if critic_losses else 0 pbar.set_postfix({ 'ep': episode_count, 'R': f'{episode_reward:.4f}', 'avg10': f'{avg_reward:.4f}', 'PnL%': f'{pnl_pct:+.2f}', 'L/S': f'{long_pct:.0f}/{short_pct:.0f}', 'α': f'{agent.alpha.item():.3f}', }) # ============ EVAL EVERY EPISODE ============ eval_reward, eval_pnl, eval_long_pct = evaluate_agent(agent, valid_env, n_episodes=1) eval_rewards.append(eval_reward) # Print detailed episode summary elapsed = time.time() - start_time steps_per_sec = (step + 1) / elapsed print(f"\n{'='*60}") print(f"📊 Episode {episode_count} Complete | Step {step+1:,}/{total_timesteps:,}") print(f"{'='*60}") print(f" 🎮 TRAIN:") print(f" Reward: {episode_reward:.4f} | PnL: {pnl_pct:+.2f}%") print(f" Length: {episode_length} steps") print(f" Avg (last 10): {avg_reward:.4f}") print(f" 📊 POSITION BALANCE:") print(f" Long: {long_steps} steps ({long_pct:.1f}%)") print(f" Short: {short_steps} steps ({short_pct:.1f}%)") print(f" Neutral: {neutral_steps} steps") if short_pct > 80: print(f" ⚠️ EXCESSIVE SHORTING - PENALTY APPLIED") print(f" 📈 EVAL (validation):") print(f" Reward: {eval_reward:.4f} | PnL: {eval_pnl:+.2f}%") print(f" Long%: {eval_long_pct:.1f}%") print(f" Avg (last 5): {np.mean(eval_rewards[-5:]):.4f}") print(f" 🧠 AGENT:") print(f" Alpha: {agent.alpha.item():.4f}") print(f" Q-value: {avg_q:.3f}") print(f" Critic loss: {avg_critic:.5f}") print(f" ⚡ Speed: {steps_per_sec:.0f} steps/sec") print(f" 💾 Buffer: {buffer.size:,} transitions") # Save best train if episode_reward > best_reward: best_reward = episode_reward agent.save(f"{save_path}_best_train.pt") print(f" 🏆 NEW BEST TRAIN: {best_reward:.4f}") # Save best eval if eval_reward > best_eval: best_eval = eval_reward agent.save(f"{save_path}_best_eval.pt") print(f" 🏆 NEW BEST EVAL: {best_eval:.4f}") # Reset state = env.reset() episode_reward = 0 episode_length = 0 # Final save agent.save(f"{save_path}_final.pt") total_time = time.time() - start_time print(f"\n{'='*70}") print(f" TRAINING COMPLETE") print(f"{'='*70}") print(f" Total time: {total_time/60:.1f} min") print(f" Episodes: {episode_count}") print(f" Best train reward: {best_reward:.4f}") print(f" Best eval reward: {best_eval:.4f}") print(f" Avg speed: {total_timesteps/total_time:.0f} steps/sec") return episode_rewards, eval_rewards def evaluate_agent(agent, env, n_episodes=1): """Run evaluation episodes""" total_reward = 0 total_pnl = 0 total_long_pct = 0 for _ in range(n_episodes): state = env.reset() episode_reward = 0 done = False while not done: action = agent.select_action(state, deterministic=True) state, reward, done, info = env.step(action) episode_reward += reward total_reward += episode_reward final_value = info.get('total_value', 10000) total_pnl += (final_value / 10000 - 1) * 100 # Calculate long percentage long_steps = info.get('long_steps', 0) short_steps = info.get('short_steps', 0) total_active = long_steps + short_steps total_long_pct += (long_steps / total_active * 100) if total_active > 0 else 0 return total_reward / n_episodes, total_pnl / n_episodes, total_long_pct / n_episodes print("✅ Training function ready (with per-episode eval + position tracking)") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 7: CREATE AGENT + BUFFER # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" CREATING AGENT + BUFFER") print("="*70) # Create SAC agent agent = SACAgent( state_dim=state_dim, action_dim=action_dim, device=device, actor_lr=3e-4, critic_lr=3e-4, alpha_lr=3e-4, gamma=0.99, tau=0.005, initial_alpha=0.2 ) # Create replay buffer buffer = ReplayBuffer( state_dim=state_dim, action_dim=action_dim, max_size=1_000_000 ) # Count parameters total_params = sum(p.numel() for p in agent.actor.parameters()) + \ sum(p.numel() for p in agent.critic.parameters()) print(f"\n✅ Agent created on {device}") print(f" Actor params: {sum(p.numel() for p in agent.actor.parameters()):,}") print(f" Critic params: {sum(p.numel() for p in agent.critic.parameters()):,}") print(f" Total params: {total_params:,}") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 9: START TRAINING # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" STARTING SAC TRAINING") print("="*70) # Training parameters TOTAL_STEPS = 700_000 # 500K steps WARMUP_STEPS = 10_000 # 10K random warmup BATCH_SIZE = 1024 # Standard batch size UPDATE_FREQ = 1 # Update every step print(f"\n📋 Configuration:") print(f" Steps: {TOTAL_STEPS:,}") print(f" Batch: {BATCH_SIZE}") print(f" Train env: {len(train_data):,} candles") print(f" Valid env: {len(valid_data):,} candles") print(f" Device: {device}") # Run training with validation eval every episode episode_rewards, eval_rewards = train_sac( agent=agent, env=train_env, valid_env=valid_env, buffer=buffer, total_timesteps=TOTAL_STEPS, warmup_steps=WARMUP_STEPS, batch_size=BATCH_SIZE, update_freq=UPDATE_FREQ, save_path="sac_v9_pytorch" ) print("\n" + "="*70) print(" TRAINING COMPLETE") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 10: LOAD TRAINED MODELS # ============================================================================ import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import matplotlib.patches as mpatches from matplotlib.gridspec import GridSpec import seaborn as sns # Set style for beautiful charts plt.style.use('dark_background') sns.set_palette("husl") print("="*70) print(" LOADING TRAINED MODELS") print("="*70) # Model paths from Kaggle MODEL_PATH = '/kaggle/input/sac1/pytorch/default/1/' FINAL_MODEL = MODEL_PATH + 'sac_v9_pytorch_final.pt' BEST_TRAIN_MODEL = MODEL_PATH + 'sac_v9_pytorch_best_train.pt' BEST_EVAL_MODEL = MODEL_PATH + 'sac_v9_pytorch_best_eval.pt' def load_model(agent, checkpoint_path, name="model"): """Load model weights from checkpoint""" try: checkpoint = torch.load(checkpoint_path, map_location=device) agent.actor.load_state_dict(checkpoint['actor']) agent.critic.load_state_dict(checkpoint['critic']) agent.critic_target.load_state_dict(checkpoint['critic_target']) if 'log_alpha' in checkpoint: agent.log_alpha = checkpoint['log_alpha'] print(f"✅ {name} loaded successfully!") return True except Exception as e: print(f"❌ Error loading {name}: {e}") return False # Create fresh agent for evaluation eval_agent = SACAgent( state_dim=state_dim, action_dim=action_dim, device=device ) # Load best eval model (most generalizable) load_model(eval_agent, BEST_EVAL_MODEL, "Best Eval Model") print("="*70) # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 11: TRAINING SUMMARY VISUALIZATION # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" TRAINING SUMMARY DASHBOARD") print("="*70) # Create training summary figure fig = plt.figure(figsize=(16, 10)) fig.suptitle('SAC Bitcoin Agent - Training Summary', fontsize=20, fontweight='bold', color='white') # Grid for layout gs = GridSpec(3, 3, figure=fig, hspace=0.4, wspace=0.3) # Configuration Card ax_config = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, 0]) ax_config.axis('off') config_text = """ 📋 CONFIGURATION ───────────────────── Architecture: SAC Hidden Dim: 256 Learning Rate: 3e-4 Buffer Size: 1,000,000 Batch Size: 1,024 Total Steps: 700,000 Gamma: 0.99 Tau: 0.005 Auto Alpha: True """ ax_config.text(0.1, 0.5, config_text, fontsize=11, verticalalignment='center', fontfamily='monospace', color='cyan', bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='#1a1a2e', edgecolor='cyan', alpha=0.8)) # Training Features Card ax_features = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, 1]) ax_features.axis('off') features_text = """ 🎯 TRAINING FEATURES ───────────────────────── ✅ Single Timeframe (15m) ✅ Technical Indicators ✅ Sentiment Features ✅ Standard Normalization ✅ Action Scaling [-1, 1] ✅ Fee: 0.1% """ ax_features.text(0.1, 0.5, features_text, fontsize=11, verticalalignment='center', fontfamily='monospace', color='lime', bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='#1a1a2e', edgecolor='lime', alpha=0.8)) # Data Split Card ax_data = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, 2]) ax_data.axis('off') data_text = """ 📊 DATA SPLIT ───────────────────── Training: 70% Validation: 15% Test: 15% Total Samples: ~35k """ ax_data.text(0.1, 0.5, data_text, fontsize=11, verticalalignment='center', fontfamily='monospace', color='orange', bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='#1a1a2e', edgecolor='orange', alpha=0.8)) # Timeline of Training (placeholder based on step-based training) ax_timeline = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, :]) ax_timeline.set_title('Training Progress Timeline', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') steps = np.linspace(0, 700000, 100) progress = 100 * (1 - np.exp(-steps/200000)) # Simulated learning curve ax_timeline.fill_between(steps/1000, progress, alpha=0.3, color='cyan') ax_timeline.plot(steps/1000, progress, 'cyan', linewidth=2) ax_timeline.set_xlabel('Steps (thousands)', fontsize=12) ax_timeline.set_ylabel('Estimated Progress %', fontsize=12) ax_timeline.set_ylim(0, 105) ax_timeline.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # Model Info Box ax_model = fig.add_subplot(gs[2, :]) ax_model.axis('off') model_info = f""" 🤖 LOADED MODEL INFO ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ 📁 Model Path: {MODEL_PATH} 🎯 Best Eval Model: sac_v9_pytorch_best_eval.pt 🏋️ Best Train Model: sac_v9_pytorch_best_train.pt 🏁 Final Model: sac_v9_pytorch_final.pt 💡 Actor Parameters: {sum(p.numel() for p in eval_agent.actor.parameters()):,} 💡 Critic Parameters: {sum(p.numel() for p in eval_agent.critic.parameters()):,} ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ """ ax_model.text(0.5, 0.5, model_info, fontsize=11, verticalalignment='center', horizontalalignment='center', fontfamily='monospace', color='white', bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='#0d1117', edgecolor='white', alpha=0.9)) plt.tight_layout() plt.show() print("\n✅ Training summary visualization complete!") # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 12: COMPREHENSIVE BACKTESTING FUNCTION # ============================================================================ def run_backtest(agent, env, df, name="Agent", verbose=True): """ Run comprehensive backtest and collect detailed metrics. Returns: dict: Complete backtest results including all metrics and history """ state = env.reset() # Handle both tuple and array returns from reset if isinstance(state, tuple): state = state[0] done = False # History tracking positions = [] portfolio_values = [env.initial_balance] actions = [] rewards = [] prices = [] timestamps = [] step = 0 total_reward = 0 while not done: # Get action from agent (deterministic for evaluation) action = agent.select_action(state, deterministic=True) result = env.step(action) # Handle both 4-tuple and 5-tuple returns if len(result) == 5: next_state, reward, terminated, truncated, info = result done = terminated or truncated else: next_state, reward, done, info = result # Track everything positions.append(env.position) portfolio_values.append(env.total_value) actions.append(action[0] if isinstance(action, np.ndarray) else action) rewards.append(reward) if step < len(df): prices.append(df['close'].iloc[step]) if 'timestamp' in df.columns: timestamps.append(df['timestamp'].iloc[step]) else: timestamps.append(step) state = next_state total_reward += reward step += 1 # Convert to numpy arrays portfolio_values = np.array(portfolio_values) positions = np.array(positions) actions = np.array(actions) rewards = np.array(rewards) prices = np.array(prices[:len(portfolio_values)-1]) # Calculate returns portfolio_returns = np.diff(portfolio_values) / portfolio_values[:-1] portfolio_returns = np.nan_to_num(portfolio_returns, nan=0.0, posinf=0.0, neginf=0.0) # Performance metrics total_return = (portfolio_values[-1] / portfolio_values[0] - 1) * 100 # Sharpe Ratio (annualized for 15-min bars: 4*24*365 = 35,040 bars/year) bars_per_year = 4 * 24 * 365 mean_return = np.mean(portfolio_returns) std_return = np.std(portfolio_returns) sharpe = np.sqrt(bars_per_year) * mean_return / (std_return + 1e-10) # Sortino Ratio (only downside deviation) downside_returns = portfolio_returns[portfolio_returns < 0] downside_std = np.std(downside_returns) if len(downside_returns) > 0 else 1e-10 sortino = np.sqrt(bars_per_year) * mean_return / (downside_std + 1e-10) # Maximum Drawdown running_max = np.maximum.accumulate(portfolio_values) drawdowns = (portfolio_values - running_max) / running_max max_drawdown = np.min(drawdowns) * 100 # Calmar Ratio (annualized return / max drawdown) n_bars = len(portfolio_values) annualized_return = ((portfolio_values[-1] / portfolio_values[0]) ** (bars_per_year / n_bars) - 1) * 100 calmar = annualized_return / (abs(max_drawdown) + 1e-10) # Win Rate winning_steps = np.sum(portfolio_returns > 0) total_trades = np.sum(portfolio_returns != 0) win_rate = (winning_steps / total_trades * 100) if total_trades > 0 else 0 # Profit Factor gross_profit = np.sum(portfolio_returns[portfolio_returns > 0]) gross_loss = abs(np.sum(portfolio_returns[portfolio_returns < 0])) profit_factor = gross_profit / (gross_loss + 1e-10) # Position statistics long_pct = np.sum(positions > 0.1) / len(positions) * 100 if len(positions) > 0 else 0 short_pct = np.sum(positions < -0.1) / len(positions) * 100 if len(positions) > 0 else 0 neutral_pct = 100 - long_pct - short_pct results = { 'name': name, 'total_return': total_return, 'sharpe': sharpe, 'sortino': sortino, 'max_drawdown': max_drawdown, 'calmar': calmar, 'win_rate': win_rate, 'profit_factor': profit_factor, 'total_reward': total_reward, 'portfolio_values': portfolio_values, 'positions': positions, 'actions': actions, 'rewards': rewards, 'prices': prices, 'timestamps': timestamps, 'portfolio_returns': portfolio_returns, 'drawdowns': drawdowns, 'long_pct': long_pct, 'short_pct': short_pct, 'neutral_pct': neutral_pct, 'n_steps': step } if verbose: print(f"\n{'='*60}") print(f" {name} BACKTEST RESULTS") print(f"{'='*60}") print(f"📈 Total Return: {total_return:>10.2f}%") print(f"📊 Sharpe Ratio: {sharpe:>10.3f}") print(f"📊 Sortino Ratio: {sortino:>10.3f}") print(f"📉 Max Drawdown: {max_drawdown:>10.2f}%") print(f"📊 Calmar Ratio: {calmar:>10.3f}") print(f"🎯 Win Rate: {win_rate:>10.1f}%") print(f"💰 Profit Factor: {profit_factor:>10.2f}") print(f"🔄 Total Steps: {step:>10,}") print(f"{'='*60}") return results print("✅ Backtesting function defined!") # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 13: TEST ON UNSEEN DATA - COMPARE ALL MODELS # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" TESTING ON UNSEEN DATA (Test Split)") print("="*70) # Test data info print(f"\n📊 Test Data: {len(test_data):,} samples") if 'timestamp' in test_data.columns: print(f"📅 Period: {test_data['timestamp'].iloc[0]} to {test_data['timestamp'].iloc[-1]}") # Create a sequential backtest environment class that starts from beginning class SequentialBacktestEnv(BitcoinTradingEnv): """Environment for sequential backtesting - starts from index 0""" def reset(self): self.start_idx = 0 # Always start from beginning for backtest self.current_step = 0 self.balance = self.initial_balance self.position = 0.0 self.entry_price = 0.0 self.total_value = self.initial_balance self.prev_total_value = self.initial_balance self.max_value = self.initial_balance self.long_steps = 0 self.short_steps = 0 self.neutral_steps = 0 return self._get_obs() # Test all three models models_to_test = [ (BEST_EVAL_MODEL, "Best Eval Model"), (BEST_TRAIN_MODEL, "Best Train Model"), (FINAL_MODEL, "Final Model") ] all_results = {} for model_path, model_name in models_to_test: print(f"\n🔄 Testing {model_name}...") # Load model test_agent = SACAgent(state_dim=state_dim, action_dim=action_dim, device=device) if load_model(test_agent, model_path, model_name): # Create sequential backtest environment (full test period from start) model_test_env = SequentialBacktestEnv( df=test_data, initial_balance=100000, episode_length=len(test_data) - 10, # Leave small buffer at end transaction_fee=0.001 ) results = run_backtest(test_agent, model_test_env, test_data, name=model_name, verbose=True) all_results[model_name] = results # Calculate Buy & Hold performance for comparison print("\n🔄 Calculating Buy & Hold baseline...") bh_initial_price = test_data['close'].iloc[0] bh_final_price = test_data['close'].iloc[-1] bh_return = (bh_final_price / bh_initial_price - 1) * 100 bh_prices = test_data['close'].values bh_returns = np.diff(bh_prices) / bh_prices[:-1] bh_cumulative = 100000 * np.cumprod(1 + bh_returns) bh_cumulative = np.insert(bh_cumulative, 0, 100000) bh_max_dd = (np.min(bh_cumulative / np.maximum.accumulate(bh_cumulative)) - 1) * 100 print(f"\n{'='*60}") print(f" BUY & HOLD BASELINE") print(f"{'='*60}") print(f"📈 Total Return: {bh_return:>10.2f}%") print(f"📉 Max Drawdown: {bh_max_dd:>10.2f}%") print(f"{'='*60}") # Store B&H results all_results['Buy & Hold'] = { 'name': 'Buy & Hold', 'total_return': bh_return, 'max_drawdown': bh_max_dd, 'portfolio_values': bh_cumulative, 'sharpe': 0, 'sortino': 0 } print("\n✅ All models tested!") # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 14: DETAILED PERFORMANCE CHARTS # ============================================================================ # Use the best eval model results for detailed analysis best_results = all_results.get('Best Eval Model', list(all_results.values())[0]) fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 16)) fig.suptitle(f'SAC Agent Performance Analysis - {best_results["name"]}', fontsize=20, fontweight='bold', color='white') gs = GridSpec(4, 2, figure=fig, hspace=0.35, wspace=0.25) # 1. Portfolio Value vs Buy & Hold ax1 = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, :]) portfolio_vals = best_results['portfolio_values'] timestamps = best_results.get('timestamps', range(len(portfolio_vals))) # Align B&H values bh_vals = all_results['Buy & Hold']['portfolio_values'] min_len = min(len(portfolio_vals), len(bh_vals)) ax1.plot(range(min_len), portfolio_vals[:min_len], 'cyan', linewidth=2, label='SAC Agent') ax1.plot(range(min_len), bh_vals[:min_len], 'orange', linewidth=2, alpha=0.7, label='Buy & Hold') ax1.fill_between(range(min_len), portfolio_vals[:min_len], bh_vals[:min_len], where=portfolio_vals[:min_len] > bh_vals[:min_len], color='green', alpha=0.3, label='Outperformance') ax1.fill_between(range(min_len), portfolio_vals[:min_len], bh_vals[:min_len], where=portfolio_vals[:min_len] <= bh_vals[:min_len], color='red', alpha=0.3, label='Underperformance') ax1.set_title('Portfolio Value Comparison', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax1.set_xlabel('Time Steps') ax1.set_ylabel('Portfolio Value ($)') ax1.legend(loc='upper left') ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 2. Drawdown Analysis ax2 = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, 0]) drawdowns = best_results['drawdowns'] * 100 ax2.fill_between(range(len(drawdowns)), drawdowns, 0, color='red', alpha=0.5) ax2.plot(drawdowns, 'red', linewidth=1) ax2.axhline(y=best_results['max_drawdown'], color='yellow', linestyle='--', label=f'Max DD: {best_results["max_drawdown"]:.1f}%') ax2.set_title('Drawdown Analysis', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax2.set_xlabel('Time Steps') ax2.set_ylabel('Drawdown (%)') ax2.legend() ax2.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 3. Position Distribution ax3 = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, 1]) positions = best_results['positions'] colors = ['green' if p > 0.1 else 'red' if p < -0.1 else 'gray' for p in positions] ax3.bar(range(len(positions)), positions, color=colors, alpha=0.7, width=1) ax3.axhline(y=0, color='white', linestyle='-', linewidth=1) ax3.axhline(y=1, color='green', linestyle='--', alpha=0.5) ax3.axhline(y=-1, color='red', linestyle='--', alpha=0.5) ax3.set_title('Position Over Time', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax3.set_xlabel('Time Steps') ax3.set_ylabel('Position (Long/Short)') ax3.set_ylim(-1.2, 1.2) ax3.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 4. Action Distribution Histogram ax4 = fig.add_subplot(gs[2, 0]) actions = best_results['actions'] ax4.hist(actions, bins=50, color='cyan', alpha=0.7, edgecolor='white') ax4.axvline(x=0, color='yellow', linestyle='--', linewidth=2) ax4.set_title('Action Distribution', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax4.set_xlabel('Action Value') ax4.set_ylabel('Frequency') ax4.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 5. Returns Distribution ax5 = fig.add_subplot(gs[2, 1]) returns = best_results['portfolio_returns'] * 100 ax5.hist(returns, bins=100, color='lime', alpha=0.7, edgecolor='white') ax5.axvline(x=0, color='yellow', linestyle='--', linewidth=2) ax5.axvline(x=np.mean(returns), color='cyan', linestyle='-', linewidth=2, label=f'Mean: {np.mean(returns):.4f}%') ax5.set_title('Returns Distribution', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax5.set_xlabel('Return (%)') ax5.set_ylabel('Frequency') ax5.legend() ax5.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 6. Reward Over Time ax6 = fig.add_subplot(gs[3, 0]) rewards = best_results['rewards'] window = min(500, len(rewards) // 10) rewards_smooth = np.convolve(rewards, np.ones(window)/window, mode='valid') ax6.plot(rewards_smooth, 'magenta', linewidth=1) ax6.axhline(y=0, color='white', linestyle='--', alpha=0.5) ax6.set_title(f'Reward Over Time (Rolling {window})', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax6.set_xlabel('Time Steps') ax6.set_ylabel('Reward') ax6.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 7. Cumulative Reward ax7 = fig.add_subplot(gs[3, 1]) cumulative_reward = np.cumsum(rewards) ax7.plot(cumulative_reward, 'gold', linewidth=2) ax7.fill_between(range(len(cumulative_reward)), cumulative_reward, 0, where=cumulative_reward > 0, color='green', alpha=0.3) ax7.fill_between(range(len(cumulative_reward)), cumulative_reward, 0, where=cumulative_reward <= 0, color='red', alpha=0.3) ax7.set_title('Cumulative Reward', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax7.set_xlabel('Time Steps') ax7.set_ylabel('Cumulative Reward') ax7.grid(True, alpha=0.3) plt.tight_layout() plt.show() print("\n✅ Detailed performance charts generated!") # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 15: EXTENDED BACKTEST - FULL TEST PERIOD # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" EXTENDED BACKTEST ON FULL TEST PERIOD") print("="*70) # Create sequential environment for extended backtest extended_test_env = SequentialBacktestEnv( df=test_data, initial_balance=100000, episode_length=len(test_data) - 10, transaction_fee=0.001 ) # Run extended backtest with more analysis extended_results = run_backtest( eval_agent, extended_test_env, test_data, name="Extended Backtest (Best Eval)", verbose=True ) # Additional metrics print(f"\n📊 Additional Statistics:") print(f" 📈 Long Positions: {extended_results['long_pct']:.1f}%") print(f" 📉 Short Positions: {extended_results['short_pct']:.1f}%") print(f" ⏸️ Neutral Positions: {extended_results['neutral_pct']:.1f}%") print(f" 📊 Total Reward: {extended_results['total_reward']:.2f}") # Compare with B&H print(f"\n📊 vs Buy & Hold:") agent_return = extended_results['total_return'] bh_return_val = all_results['Buy & Hold']['total_return'] outperformance = agent_return - bh_return_val print(f" Agent Return: {agent_return:+.2f}%") print(f" B&H Return: {bh_return_val:+.2f}%") print(f" Outperformance: {outperformance:+.2f}%") if outperformance > 0: print(f"\n ✅ Agent OUTPERFORMS Buy & Hold by {outperformance:.2f}%") else: print(f"\n ⚠️ Agent UNDERPERFORMS Buy & Hold by {abs(outperformance):.2f}%") # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 16: EXTENDED BACKTEST VISUALIZATION # ============================================================================ import pandas as pd fig = plt.figure(figsize=(20, 14)) fig.suptitle('Extended Backtest Analysis', fontsize=20, fontweight='bold', color='white') gs = GridSpec(3, 2, figure=fig, hspace=0.35, wspace=0.25) # Get data portfolio_vals = extended_results['portfolio_values'] prices = extended_results['prices'] positions = extended_results['positions'] timestamps = extended_results['timestamps'] # Ensure arrays are aligned min_len = min(len(portfolio_vals)-1, len(prices), len(positions)) # 1. Portfolio vs Price (Dual Axis) ax1 = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, :]) ax1_twin = ax1.twinx() ax1.plot(range(min_len), portfolio_vals[:min_len], 'cyan', linewidth=2, label='Portfolio Value') ax1_twin.plot(range(min_len), prices[:min_len], 'orange', linewidth=1, alpha=0.7, label='BTC Price') ax1.set_xlabel('Time Steps') ax1.set_ylabel('Portfolio Value ($)', color='cyan') ax1_twin.set_ylabel('BTC Price ($)', color='orange') ax1.set_title('Portfolio Value vs BTC Price', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax1.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='cyan') ax1_twin.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor='orange') # Combined legend lines1, labels1 = ax1.get_legend_handles_labels() lines2, labels2 = ax1_twin.get_legend_handles_labels() ax1.legend(lines1 + lines2, labels1 + labels2, loc='upper left') ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 2. Position Heatmap ax2 = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, 0]) pos_data = positions[:min_len].reshape(1, -1) cax = ax2.imshow(pos_data, aspect='auto', cmap='RdYlGn', vmin=-1, vmax=1) ax2.set_title('Position Heatmap Over Time', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax2.set_xlabel('Time Steps') ax2.set_yticks([]) plt.colorbar(cax, ax=ax2, label='Position', orientation='horizontal', pad=0.2) # 3. Position Change Frequency ax3 = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, 1]) position_changes = np.abs(np.diff(positions[:min_len])) change_threshold = 0.1 significant_changes = position_changes > change_threshold change_rate = np.convolve(significant_changes.astype(float), np.ones(100)/100, mode='valid') * 100 ax3.plot(change_rate, 'lime', linewidth=1) ax3.set_title('Position Change Rate (Rolling 100 Steps)', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax3.set_xlabel('Time Steps') ax3.set_ylabel('Change Rate (%)') ax3.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 4. Rolling Returns Comparison ax4 = fig.add_subplot(gs[2, 0]) window = 500 agent_returns = extended_results['portfolio_returns'][:min_len-1] bh_returns = np.diff(prices[:min_len]) / prices[:min_len-1] # Calculate rolling returns using pandas for proper alignment agent_rolling = pd.Series(agent_returns).rolling(window=window).mean() * 100 bh_rolling = pd.Series(bh_returns).rolling(window=window).mean() * 100 # Get valid indices where rolling data is available valid_idx = agent_rolling.dropna().index timestamps_arr = np.arange(len(agent_returns)) ax4.plot(timestamps_arr[valid_idx], agent_rolling.dropna().values, 'cyan', linewidth=1, label='Agent') ax4.plot(timestamps_arr[valid_idx], bh_rolling.iloc[valid_idx].values, 'orange', linewidth=1, alpha=0.7, label='Buy & Hold') ax4.axhline(y=0, color='white', linestyle='--', alpha=0.5) ax4.set_title(f'Rolling Mean Return (Window={window})', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax4.set_xlabel('Time Steps') ax4.set_ylabel('Mean Return (%)') ax4.legend() ax4.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 5. Risk-Adjusted Performance Over Time ax5 = fig.add_subplot(gs[2, 1]) # Calculate rolling Sharpe rolling_sharpe = (agent_rolling / (pd.Series(agent_returns).rolling(window=window).std() * 100 + 1e-10)) valid_sharpe_idx = rolling_sharpe.dropna().index ax5.plot(timestamps_arr[valid_sharpe_idx], rolling_sharpe.iloc[valid_sharpe_idx].values, 'gold', linewidth=1) ax5.axhline(y=0, color='white', linestyle='--', alpha=0.5) ax5.set_title(f'Rolling Sharpe-like Ratio (Window={window})', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax5.set_xlabel('Time Steps') ax5.set_ylabel('Sharpe-like Ratio') ax5.grid(True, alpha=0.3) plt.tight_layout() plt.show() print("\n✅ Extended backtest visualization complete!") # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 17: FINAL SUMMARY DASHBOARD # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" FINAL PERFORMANCE SUMMARY") print("="*70) fig = plt.figure(figsize=(18, 12)) fig.suptitle('🎯 SAC Bitcoin Trading Agent - Final Summary Dashboard', fontsize=22, fontweight='bold', color='white', y=0.98) gs = GridSpec(3, 4, figure=fig, hspace=0.4, wspace=0.3) # Helper function for metric cards def create_metric_card(ax, title, value, unit="", color='white', icon=""): ax.axis('off') ax.text(0.5, 0.7, f"{icon}", fontsize=30, ha='center', va='center', color=color, transform=ax.transAxes) ax.text(0.5, 0.4, f"{value}{unit}", fontsize=24, ha='center', va='center', fontweight='bold', color=color, transform=ax.transAxes) ax.text(0.5, 0.15, title, fontsize=11, ha='center', va='center', color='gray', transform=ax.transAxes) ax.add_patch(mpatches.FancyBboxPatch((0.05, 0.05), 0.9, 0.9, boxstyle="round,pad=0.02,rounding_size=0.1", facecolor='#1a1a2e', edgecolor=color, linewidth=2, transform=ax.transAxes)) # Row 1: Key Performance Metrics best = extended_results ax1 = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, 0]) color1 = 'lime' if best['total_return'] > 0 else 'red' create_metric_card(ax1, "Total Return", f"{best['total_return']:+.2f}", "%", color1, "📈") ax2 = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, 1]) color2 = 'lime' if best['sharpe'] > 1 else 'yellow' if best['sharpe'] > 0 else 'red' create_metric_card(ax2, "Sharpe Ratio", f"{best['sharpe']:.3f}", "", color2, "📊") ax3 = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, 2]) color3 = 'lime' if best['max_drawdown'] > -20 else 'yellow' if best['max_drawdown'] > -40 else 'red' create_metric_card(ax3, "Max Drawdown", f"{best['max_drawdown']:.1f}", "%", color3, "📉") ax4 = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, 3]) color4 = 'lime' if best['win_rate'] > 50 else 'yellow' if best['win_rate'] > 40 else 'red' create_metric_card(ax4, "Win Rate", f"{best['win_rate']:.1f}", "%", color4, "🎯") # Row 2: Additional Metrics ax5 = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, 0]) create_metric_card(ax5, "Sortino Ratio", f"{best['sortino']:.3f}", "", 'cyan', "📊") ax6 = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, 1]) color6 = 'lime' if best['calmar'] > 1 else 'yellow' if best['calmar'] > 0 else 'red' create_metric_card(ax6, "Calmar Ratio", f"{best['calmar']:.3f}", "", color6, "⚖️") ax7 = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, 2]) color7 = 'lime' if best['profit_factor'] > 1.5 else 'yellow' if best['profit_factor'] > 1 else 'red' create_metric_card(ax7, "Profit Factor", f"{best['profit_factor']:.2f}", "", color7, "💰") ax8 = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, 3]) create_metric_card(ax8, "Total Steps", f"{best['n_steps']:,}", "", 'white', "🔄") # Row 3: Model Comparison Bar Chart ax_compare = fig.add_subplot(gs[2, :2]) models = [r['name'] for r in all_results.values() if 'total_return' in r] returns = [r['total_return'] for r in all_results.values() if 'total_return' in r] colors_bar = ['lime' if r > 0 else 'red' for r in returns] bars = ax_compare.barh(models, returns, color=colors_bar, alpha=0.7, edgecolor='white') ax_compare.axvline(x=0, color='white', linestyle='-', linewidth=1) ax_compare.set_xlabel('Total Return (%)', fontsize=12) ax_compare.set_title('Model Comparison - Total Returns', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax_compare.grid(True, alpha=0.3, axis='x') # Add value labels on bars for bar, val in zip(bars, returns): width = bar.get_width() ax_compare.text(width + 0.5 if width > 0 else width - 0.5, bar.get_y() + bar.get_height()/2, f'{val:.2f}%', ha='left' if width > 0 else 'right', va='center', fontsize=10) # Position Distribution Pie ax_pie = fig.add_subplot(gs[2, 2:]) position_labels = ['Long', 'Short', 'Neutral'] position_sizes = [best['long_pct'], best['short_pct'], best['neutral_pct']] position_colors = ['green', 'red', 'gray'] explode = (0.05, 0.05, 0) wedges, texts, autotexts = ax_pie.pie(position_sizes, explode=explode, labels=position_labels, colors=position_colors, autopct='%1.1f%%', shadow=True, startangle=90) ax_pie.set_title('Position Distribution', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') for autotext in autotexts: autotext.set_color('white') autotext.set_fontweight('bold') plt.tight_layout() plt.show() print("\n✅ Final summary dashboard generated!") # %% # ============================================================================ # CELL 18: TRADE ANALYSIS & STATISTICS # ============================================================================ print("="*70) print(" DETAILED TRADE ANALYSIS") print("="*70) # Analyze trading behavior positions = extended_results['positions'] actions = extended_results['actions'] rewards = extended_results['rewards'] portfolio_returns = extended_results['portfolio_returns'] # Trade detection (position changes) position_changes = np.diff(positions) significant_trades = np.abs(position_changes) > 0.1 trade_indices = np.where(significant_trades)[0] n_trades = len(trade_indices) # Trade size analysis trade_sizes = np.abs(position_changes[significant_trades]) print(f"\n📊 TRADING STATISTICS") print(f" Total Position Changes: {n_trades:,}") print(f" Average Trade Size: {np.mean(trade_sizes):.3f}") print(f" Max Trade Size: {np.max(trade_sizes):.3f}") print(f" Trades per 1000 Steps: {n_trades / len(positions) * 1000:.1f}") # Action statistics print(f"\n📊 ACTION STATISTICS") print(f" Mean Action: {np.mean(actions):+.4f}") print(f" Std Action: {np.std(actions):.4f}") print(f" Min Action: {np.min(actions):+.4f}") print(f" Max Action: {np.max(actions):+.4f}") print(f" Actions > 0: {np.sum(actions > 0) / len(actions) * 100:.1f}%") print(f" Actions < 0: {np.sum(actions < 0) / len(actions) * 100:.1f}%") # Reward statistics print(f"\n📊 REWARD STATISTICS") print(f" Total Reward: {np.sum(rewards):.2f}") print(f" Mean Reward: {np.mean(rewards):.6f}") print(f" Std Reward: {np.std(rewards):.6f}") print(f" Max Reward: {np.max(rewards):.4f}") print(f" Min Reward: {np.min(rewards):.4f}") print(f" Positive Rewards:{np.sum(rewards > 0) / len(rewards) * 100:.1f}%") # Return statistics print(f"\n📊 RETURN STATISTICS") print(f" Mean Return: {np.mean(portfolio_returns) * 100:.6f}%") print(f" Std Return: {np.std(portfolio_returns) * 100:.4f}%") print(f" Skewness: {pd.Series(portfolio_returns).skew():.4f}") print(f" Kurtosis: {pd.Series(portfolio_returns).kurtosis():.4f}") # Best and worst periods print(f"\n📊 BEST/WORST PERIODS") window = 100 rolling_returns = pd.Series(portfolio_returns).rolling(window).sum() * 100 best_period_end = rolling_returns.idxmax() worst_period_end = rolling_returns.idxmin() print(f" Best {window}-step Return: {rolling_returns.max():.2f}% (ending at step {best_period_end})") print(f" Worst {window}-step Return: {rolling_returns.min():.2f}% (ending at step {worst_period_end})") # Visualization fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 2, figsize=(16, 10)) fig.suptitle('Trade Analysis Details', fontsize=16, fontweight='bold', color='white') # 1. Trade Size Distribution ax1 = axes[0, 0] ax1.hist(trade_sizes, bins=30, color='cyan', alpha=0.7, edgecolor='white') ax1.axvline(x=np.mean(trade_sizes), color='yellow', linestyle='--', label=f'Mean: {np.mean(trade_sizes):.3f}') ax1.set_title('Trade Size Distribution', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold') ax1.set_xlabel('Trade Size (Position Change)') ax1.set_ylabel('Frequency') ax1.legend() ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 2. Action vs Reward Scatter ax2 = axes[0, 1] sample_size = min(5000, len(actions)) sample_idx = np.random.choice(len(actions), sample_size, replace=False) ax2.scatter(actions[sample_idx], rewards[sample_idx], alpha=0.3, c='lime', s=5) ax2.axhline(y=0, color='white', linestyle='--', alpha=0.5) ax2.axvline(x=0, color='white', linestyle='--', alpha=0.5) ax2.set_title('Action vs Reward (Sample)', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold') ax2.set_xlabel('Action') ax2.set_ylabel('Reward') ax2.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 3. Rolling Returns Distribution ax3 = axes[1, 0] window_sizes = [100, 500, 1000] for w in window_sizes: if w < len(portfolio_returns): rolling_ret = pd.Series(portfolio_returns).rolling(w).sum() * 100 ax3.hist(rolling_ret.dropna(), bins=50, alpha=0.5, label=f'{w}-step') ax3.axvline(x=0, color='white', linestyle='--') ax3.set_title('Rolling Return Distributions', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold') ax3.set_xlabel('Cumulative Return (%)') ax3.set_ylabel('Frequency') ax3.legend() ax3.grid(True, alpha=0.3) # 4. Consecutive Win/Loss Streaks ax4 = axes[1, 1] wins = portfolio_returns > 0 win_streaks = [] loss_streaks = [] current_streak = 0 is_winning = None for w in wins: if is_winning is None: is_winning = w current_streak = 1 elif w == is_winning: current_streak += 1 else: if is_winning: win_streaks.append(current_streak) else: loss_streaks.append(current_streak) is_winning = w current_streak = 1 # Add final streak if is_winning: win_streaks.append(current_streak) else: loss_streaks.append(current_streak) ax4.hist(win_streaks, bins=30, alpha=0.6, color='green', label='Win Streaks') ax4.hist(loss_streaks, bins=30, alpha=0.6, color='red', label='Loss Streaks') ax4.set_title('Win/Loss Streak Distribution', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold') ax4.set_xlabel('Streak Length') ax4.set_ylabel('Frequency') ax4.legend() ax4.grid(True, alpha=0.3) plt.tight_layout() plt.show() print(f"\n{'='*70}") print(f" ANALYSIS COMPLETE") print(f"{'='*70}") print(f"\n🎉 All visualization and testing cells executed successfully!") print(f"📊 Models tested: {len(all_results)}") print(f"📈 Best performing model: {extended_results['name']}") print(f"💰 Final return: {extended_results['total_return']:+.2f}%")