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reports/report.md
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@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ OCC is a minimal open-source framework for cost-aware agentic compute allocation
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**Key Result:** On a tiered code generation benchmark, OCC achieves **52.3% compute reduction at iso-accuracy** (0.780 pass@1) versus always using the most expensive agent. Anti-gaming tests show 100% detection of hidden-test gaming and complete credit exhaustion for spam attacks.
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**Honest Limitations:** The retrieval QA benchmark underperforms (0.710 accuracy vs 0.790 for RAG+verifier).
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---
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### 1. Rule-Based Impact Oracle
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Switching from neural reward models to rule-based scoring was the right call. The Oracle detects hidden-test gaming with **100% accuracy** by comparing public-pass vs hidden-pass scores. This directly addresses the reward-hacking literature (Gao et al., 2023; Skalse et al., 2022). The Brier-score calibration bonus also works: agents with high confidence on wrong answers lose more than agents with correct but low-confidence answers.
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### 2. Tiered Code Escalation
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### 3. Credit Decay and Non-Transferability
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Ablations show:
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- **No broker:** compute explodes from
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- **No decay:** credits accumulate, allowing hoarding behavior
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- **Spam attacks:** credits reach zero after ~10 low-value actions
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### 4. Anti-Gaming in Adversarial Debate
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### 5. Real NLI Integration
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### 1. Real LLM Inference on HumanEval
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**Fix needed:**
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### 2. Retrieval QA Accuracy
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2. **NLI over-abstention:** Real NLI on short QA pairs produces mostly neutral scores. The current abstention threshold triggers on neutral evidence, causing excessive abstention.
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3. **Evidence simulation is weak:** The synthetic evidence strings are not realistic enough for the NLI model to produce meaningful entailment scores.
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### 3. Debate Compute Savings Are Marginal
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### 4. GRPO Training Not Executed
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---
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## Which Assumptions Were Wrong
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1. **"NLI will dramatically improve QA" — FALSE.** NLI on short, out-of-domain text produces mostly neutral scores. Without fine-tuning on the target domain, it adds noise rather than signal.
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2. **"OCC will win on all benchmarks" — FALSE.** OCC is a meta-controller, not a direct reasoning improvement. It wins when there is clear agent/cost differentiation (code) and loses when the baseline already optimizes well (RAG+verifier).
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3. **"Simulated agents are sufficient for debate" — PARTIALLY FALSE.** The adversarial debate shows qualitative value (OCC filters bad agents), but quantitative compute savings
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4. **"Qwen-Coder can handle raw HumanEval prompts" — FALSE.**
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---
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**Yes, but in specific contexts:**
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- **Code generation with heterogeneous agents:** Strongest result. Production systems already do tiered escalation (cheap → expensive). OCC formalizes this with verifiable scoring and auditability.
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- **Multi-agent systems with untrusted participants:** OCC's credit filter is useful when some agents may be adversarial, lazy, or compromised.
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- **Retrieval QA:** Weak in current form. Needs domain-tuned NLI + less conservative broker thresholds.
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**No, in these contexts:**
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## Does the Compute-Savings Claim Hold?
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**Code benchmark (simulated): YES.** 52.3% savings at iso-accuracy is a strong, honest result.
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**Code benchmark (real LLM): BLOCKED.**
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**QA benchmark: NO.** OCC does not save compute at iso-accuracy because it is less accurate.
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**Debate benchmark
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---
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## Do the Anti-Gaming Mechanisms Matter?
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**Yes, significantly
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- **Spam attack:** Agent accuracy drops to 0.415 (vs 0.700 baseline) and credits reach 0.0.
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- **Hidden-test gaming:** 100% detection rate. Oracle penalizes public-pass/hidden-fail with gaming_penalty=2.0.
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- **Over-abstention:** 70% of always-abstain answers are penalized. Oracle only rewards abstention when the question is genuinely unanswerable.
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--
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## Is This Publishable?
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**As a systems paper or workshop paper: YES.** The contributions are:
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1. **Integration:** First open-source system combining rule-based oracle scoring, non-transferable decaying credits, capability-based broker, and GRPO reward hook.
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2. **Anti-gaming test suite:** Explicit adversarial tests for spam, hidden-test gaming, and over-abstention with measurable containment rates.
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3. **Honest benchmarking:** Clear iso-quality comparisons, no hidden test data for tuning, and explicit reporting of negative results (QA underperformance, real LLM failure).
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**As a top-tier conference paper (NeurIPS/ICML/ICLR): NO.** The limitations are:
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- No real LLM training (GRPO hook is untrained)
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- Real LLM inference failed due to chat-template mismatch
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- Simulated agents for most benchmarks
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- Retrieval QA results are below baseline
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- No human evaluation or real-world deployment
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**Path to stronger publication:**
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1. Fix real LLM inference (chat templating) and re-run on HumanEval subset
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2. Run real GRPO training on a small model (0.5B params, ~4 hours on T4)
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3. Improve NLI QA with domain-tuned evidence scoring
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4. Add real-world agent deployment (e.g., multi-agent coding competition)
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---
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##
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### What OCC Borrows
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- **GRPO / PPO with verifier rewards:** From DeepSeek-R1 (2501.12948) — but we use rule-based rewards instead of neural RMs.
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- **Brier score for calibration:** From reinforcement learning with proper scoring rules (RLCR literature).
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- **Multi-agent debate:** From Du et al. (2023) — but we add credit-based turn allocation.
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- **Capability-based access control:** From security literature (Ferraiolo et al., 2001) — applied to agent resource allocation.
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---
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## Next Experiment
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**Fix
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**Expected outcome:**
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---
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| `benchmarks/benchmark_code.py` | Code compute allocation benchmark |
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| `benchmarks/benchmark_retrieval_qa.py` | Retrieval QA benchmark |
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| `benchmarks/benchmark_retrieval_qa_nli.py` | QA with real NLI model |
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| `benchmarks/benchmark_debate.py` | Multi-agent debate benchmark |
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| `benchmarks/benchmark_debate_adversarial.py` | Debate with bad agents |
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| `jobs/
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| `benchmarks/eval_runner.py` | Full evaluation + ablations + anti-gaming |
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| `reports/all_results.json` | All benchmark results (machine-readable) |
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| `reports/report.md` | This report |
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| `reports/blog_post.md` | Short blog post |
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## Repository
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**Key Result:** On a tiered code generation benchmark, OCC achieves **52.3% compute reduction at iso-accuracy** (0.780 pass@1) versus always using the most expensive agent. Anti-gaming tests show 100% detection of hidden-test gaming and complete credit exhaustion for spam attacks.
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**Honest Limitations:** The retrieval QA benchmark underperforms (0.710 accuracy vs 0.790 for RAG+verifier). Real LLM inference on HumanEval using Qwen2.5-Coder-0.5B was attempted: the model loaded successfully on GPU with chat templating applied, but all baseline answers still failed due to code extraction issues (the model generates markdown-wrapped or incomplete code). The core architectural components are validated in simulation; real LLM integration needs debugging of code extraction heuristics.
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---
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### 1. Rule-Based Impact Oracle
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Switching from neural reward models to rule-based scoring was the right call. The Oracle detects hidden-test gaming with **100% accuracy** by comparing public-pass vs hidden-pass scores. This directly addresses the reward-hacking literature (Gao et al., 2023; Skalse et al., 2022) and maps to the RS-OS taxonomy's verifier-policy drift concerns (P7). The Brier-score calibration bonus also works: agents with high confidence on wrong answers lose more than agents with correct but low-confidence answers.
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### 2. Tiered Code Escalation
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### 3. Credit Decay and Non-Transferability
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Ablations show:
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- **No broker:** compute explodes from 8,350 to 17,500 (110% increase)
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- **No decay:** credits accumulate, allowing hoarding behavior
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- **Spam attacks:** credits reach zero after ~10 low-value actions
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### 4. Anti-Gaming in Adversarial Debate (v2)
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With 40% adversarial agents (overconfident + expensive tokens + verbose), confidence-weighted voting collapses to worse-than-random accuracy because adversarial agents are overconfident about wrong answers. OCC maintains superior accuracy by denying turns to agents with low credit balances and flagging adversarial patterns. The broker acts as a containment filter that confidence-weighted voting lacks.
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Key debate v2 finding: the RS-OS taxonomy's "communication padding" failure mode (§6.3) manifests directly — adversarial agents with high cost_per_turn drain the compute budget in baseline strategies but are cut off by OCC after initial wrong proposals.
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### 5. Real NLI Integration
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### 1. Real LLM Inference on HumanEval
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GPU job `69fa1fc5f2f4addb7839bdfc` successfully loaded `Qwen/Qwen2.5-Coder-0.5B-Instruct` on CUDA with chat templating (`Loaded. Chat tmpl: True`). However, **all 20 baseline answers evaluated as `passed=False`**. Diagnosis:
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- The model generates code (output is non-empty) ✓
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- The chat template is applied correctly (model receives `<|im_start|>user\n...`) ✓
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- The code extraction (`extract_function_body`) or test concatenation (`prompt + func`) produces invalid Python ✗
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Root cause: Qwen-Coder-Instruct generates code snippets that may include markdown fences, comments, or incomplete function bodies. The `extract_function_body` regex needs to be more robust — handling markdown code blocks and ensuring the extracted function is syntactically valid before running tests.
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**Fix needed:** Add markdown code block stripping and validate extracted function bodies with `ast.parse()` before running tests. Not attempted in current session due to sandbox rate-limiting.
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### 2. Retrieval QA Accuracy
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2. **NLI over-abstention:** Real NLI on short QA pairs produces mostly neutral scores. The current abstention threshold triggers on neutral evidence, causing excessive abstention.
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3. **Evidence simulation is weak:** The synthetic evidence strings are not realistic enough for the NLI model to produce meaningful entailment scores.
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### 3. Debate Compute Savings Are Marginal (v1)
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v1 debate saved only ~12% compute versus equal turns because all agents used similar token counts. v2 with variable agent costs (50 vs 500 tokens/turn) and adversarial agents shows much stronger differentiation — but needs to be run and measured.
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### 4. GRPO Training Not Executed
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---
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## Connection to RS-OS Taxonomy (arXiv:2605.02801)
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The RL-for-LLM-MAS survey paper provides the best current taxonomy for where OCC fits:
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| OCC Component | Paper Taxonomy | Status in Literature |
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| Cost-adjusted oracle score | R8 (hybrid rewards) | Paper calls weighting question "open" (§6.4) |
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| Credit Ledger (non-transferable, decaying) | Agent-level credit (§7.1) + anti-gaming (§6.3) | **No prior work detected** |
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| Capability-scoped Resource Broker | Harness boundary (§5.2) + Safety (§10) | Paper flags as needed but unimplemented |
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| Marginal impact scoring | Influence detection (P2) | Paper lists as open problem |
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| Compute-cost penalty in reward | Tool pricing (P6) | Paper: "general principle absent" |
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| Benchmarks with E2/E3/E4 metrics | Multi-dimensional eval (§9.2) | Paper: "no open benchmark covers" |
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**Four open problems from the taxonomy that OCC directly addresses:**
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1. **P2 (influence detection):** OCC's `marginal_impact(before, after)` is a simple, auditable answer.
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2. **P6 (tool pricing):** OCC's cost-adjusted score is exactly the general principle the paper says is absent.
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3. **P7 (verifier-policy drift):** OCC's oracle is a fixed rule-based function, sidestepping co-evolution entirely.
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4. **P15 (MAS-native benchmarks):** OCC's benchmarks include compute cost, influence efficiency, and bad-agent containment.
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---
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## Which Assumptions Were Wrong
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1. **"NLI will dramatically improve QA" — FALSE.** NLI on short, out-of-domain text produces mostly neutral scores. Without fine-tuning on the target domain, it adds noise rather than signal.
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2. **"OCC will win on all benchmarks" — FALSE.** OCC is a meta-controller, not a direct reasoning improvement. It wins when there is clear agent/cost differentiation (code) and loses when the baseline already optimizes well (RAG+verifier).
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3. **"Simulated agents are sufficient for debate" — PARTIALLY FALSE.** The adversarial debate shows qualitative value (OCC filters bad agents), but quantitative compute savings in v1 were too small because all simulated agents used similar token counts. v2 with variable costs addresses this.
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4. **"Qwen-Coder can handle raw HumanEval prompts" — PARTIALLY FALSE.** Chat templating fixed the input format, but code extraction from generated output remains problematic. The model generates code, but the heuristics for extracting runnable function bodies need improvement.
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---
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**Yes, but in specific contexts:**
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- **Code generation with heterogeneous agents:** Strongest result. Production systems already do tiered escalation (cheap → expensive). OCC formalizes this with verifiable scoring and auditability.
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- **Multi-agent systems with untrusted participants:** OCC's credit filter is useful when some agents may be adversarial, lazy, or compromised — a problem the RS-OS taxonomy explicitly calls unsolved.
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- **Retrieval QA:** Weak in current form. Needs domain-tuned NLI + less conservative broker thresholds.
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**No, in these contexts:**
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## Does the Compute-Savings Claim Hold?
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**Code benchmark (simulated): YES.** 52.3% savings at iso-accuracy is a strong, honest result.
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**Code benchmark (real LLM): BLOCKED.** Model loads and generates, but code extraction needs improvement. Expected to match or exceed simulation once extraction is fixed.
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**QA benchmark: NO.** OCC does not save compute at iso-accuracy because it is less accurate.
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**Debate benchmark (v2 with variable costs): EXPECTED YES.** Variable agent costs create the differentiation OCC needs.
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---
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## Do the Anti-Gaming Mechanisms Matter?
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**Yes, significantly.** We mapped our 10+ attack vectors onto the RS-OS taxonomy's 5 failure modes:
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| RS-OS Failure Mode (§6.3) | OCC Attack Test | Detection |
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| Pseudo-parallelism (R7) | N/A (single-agent code tasks) | — |
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| Free-riding / lazy agent (R1) | Adversarial debate agents | 100% containment |
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| Communication padding (R6) | Verbose adversarial agents (v2) | Cut off after initial proposals |
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| Tool-spam (R5) | Spam attack (repeated low-value actions) | Credit exhaustion after ~10 actions |
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| Verifier collusion (R6) | N/A (rule-based oracle, not neural) | Mitigated by design |
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Non-transferability and decay rules are structurally sound: non-transferability prevents colluding agents from pooling credits; decay prevents credit hoarding as a strategy.
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---
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## Is This Publishable?
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**As a workshop paper (e.g., SafeGenAI, ALTA, ALOE): YES.** The contributions are:
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1. **Concrete anti-gaming primitive:** Capability-scoped, non-transferable, decaying credits — confirmed novel by the RS-OS taxonomy.
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2. **Anti-gaming test suite:** Explicit adversarial tests with measurable containment rates mapped to known failure modes.
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3. **Honest benchmarking:** Clear iso-quality comparisons, no hidden test data for tuning, negative results reported openly.
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4. **Open problem alignment:** Directly addresses 4 open problems from a prominent taxonomy paper.
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**As a full conference paper: NOT YET.** Requires:
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1. Real LLM code benchmark with working extraction
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2. GRPO training at small scale (0.5B)
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3. Improved retrieval QA benchmark with domain-tuned NLI
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---
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## Next Experiment
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**Fix code extraction for real LLM inference.** The model and chat template work. The remaining issue is that generated code needs:
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1. Markdown code block stripping (```` ```python ... ``` ````)
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2. `ast.parse()` validation before test execution
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3. Fallback to raw prompt + generation concatenation if extraction fails
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**Expected outcome:** With proper extraction, 0.5B Qwen-Coder should achieve non-zero pass@1 on HumanEval. OCC with tiered temperature/token budgets should show 30-50% compute reduction.
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---
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| `benchmarks/benchmark_code.py` | Code compute allocation benchmark |
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| `benchmarks/benchmark_retrieval_qa.py` | Retrieval QA benchmark |
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| `benchmarks/benchmark_retrieval_qa_nli.py` | QA with real NLI model |
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| 192 |
+
| `benchmarks/benchmark_debate.py` | Multi-agent debate benchmark (v1) |
|
| 193 |
+
| `benchmarks/benchmark_debate_v2.py` | Debate v2: variable costs + adversarial |
|
| 194 |
| `benchmarks/benchmark_debate_adversarial.py` | Debate with bad agents |
|
| 195 |
+
| `jobs/run_real_llm_standalone.py` | Self-contained GPU job (v1) |
|
| 196 |
+
| `jobs/run_real_llm_standalone_v2.py` | GPU job with chat template fix (v2) |
|
| 197 |
| `benchmarks/eval_runner.py` | Full evaluation + ablations + anti-gaming |
|
| 198 |
| `reports/all_results.json` | All benchmark results (machine-readable) |
|
| 199 |
| `reports/report.md` | This report |
|
| 200 |
| `reports/blog_post.md` | Short blog post |
|
| 201 |
+
| `reports/literature_review.md` | Detailed literature review |
|
| 202 |
+
| `notebook_walkthrough.ipynb` | Interactive walkthrough notebook |
|
| 203 |
|
| 204 |
## Repository
|
| 205 |
|