code/scripts/run_harder_spurious.sh

#!/usr/bin/env bash
# scripts/run_harder_spurious.sh
#
# The "harder spurious" variant. Forces the network into a true
# memorization-then-generalization regime by stacking three knobs:
#
#   n_train      = 100   (lung anatomy too noisy to learn from 100 samples)
#   patch_size   = 10    (10×10 = 100 of 784 pixels = 12.7% of image)
#   spurious_rho = 0.95  (patch is correct 95% of the time → val ceiling at 0.95)
#   weight_decay = 5e-3  (carryover from clean-grokking — Goldilocks-zone fix)
#   condition    = grokking (Grokfast, init α=4, 3000 epochs)
#
# What we expect to see:
#   ep    1: tr 0.55  vl 0.50  sc ≈ 1.0   (random)
#   ep   30: tr 0.98  vl 0.93  sc > 1.5   (learned the patch — corner reliance)
#   ep  500: tr 1.00  vl 0.94  sc ≈ 1.7   (plateau at rho ceiling, memorization)
#   ep  900: tr 1.00  vl 0.94  sc ≈ 1.4   (sc declining — leading indicator)
#   ep 1200: tr 1.00  vl 0.96  sc < 1.0   (TRANSITION — model abandons patch)
#   ep 1500: tr 1.00  vl 0.98  sc ≈ 0.7   (grokked, anatomy-driven)
#
# The first epoch where `sc` crosses below 1.0 BEFORE val_acc jumps is
# the predictive progress measure that makes the paper.

set -euo pipefail

ROOT="$(cd "$(dirname "$0")/.." && pwd)"
cd "${ROOT}"

GPU="${GPU:-0}"
N_TRAIN="${N_TRAIN:-100}"
SEED="${SEED:-42}"
RHO="${RHO:-0.95}"
PATCH_SIZE="${PATCH_SIZE:-10}"
WD="${WD:-5e-3}"
export WANDB_MODE="${WANDB_MODE:-offline}"

echo "Harder spurious variant"
echo "  n_train     : ${N_TRAIN}"
echo "  rho         : ${RHO}"
echo "  patch_size  : ${PATCH_SIZE}"
echo "  weight_decay: ${WD}"
echo "  GPU         : ${GPU}"

# RHO 0.95 → "spurious095_ps10" (slug encodes both rho and patch size since
# both differ from the rho=0.8 / ps=4 default — the dir name should be
# enough to identify the variant).
RHO_SLUG="spurious$(echo "${RHO}" | tr -d '.')_ps${PATCH_SIZE}"

EXTRA_ARGS="--spurious_rho ${RHO} --spurious_patch_size ${PATCH_SIZE} --weight_decay ${WD}" \
RUN_TAG="${RHO_SLUG}" \
  bash scripts/launch.sh grokking "${N_TRAIN}" "${SEED}" "${GPU}"

echo
echo "Harder-spurious run detached. Watch with:"
echo "  bash scripts/list_runs.sh"
echo "  tail -f experiments/runs/<latest>/logs/train.log"
echo
echo "When DONE, the leading-indicator check is:"
cat <<'EOF'
  awk '/^  ep / { for (i=1;i<=NF;i++) if ($i=="sc") { gsub("x","",$(i+1)); if ($(i+1)+0 < 1.0) { print "FIRST sc<1.0:", $0; exit } } }' \
      experiments/runs/<latest>/logs/train.log
EOF